Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-18-21 | Bills v. Titans OVER 53 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Though they lost Week 1 to the Steelers, this start to the season that the Bills have put together really couldn’t be much more dominant. They’ve scored the most points in the league and also given up the fewest. On Monday they will face the Titans, a team that beat them 42-16 in a rare Tuesday game last season, and we believe that the Buffalo offense will keep humming right along. We warned you about this Tennessee defense back in Week 1 when we played the Cardinals. The Titans gave up 38 points in that game. They have given up at least 27 in three of their five games, one of those times coming against the Jets who are last in the league in scoring. The Bills come in averaging 34.4 points/game and should hit that average tonight. As for the Bills having allowed the fewest points, it obviously helps that they have faced Miami and Houston. The other three games have seen them give up 20 or more points every time. Tennessee remains a strong team offensively with RB Derrick Henry, who has 640 yards and four straight 100-plus yard games. The Over is 25-9-1 in the Titans’ last 35 games overall and 7-1 the last eight times they have been an underdog. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
10-18-21 | Astros v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 3-12 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Let’s not overcomplicate or overthink things here. The two teams in this year’s American League Championship Series do not struggle to score runs. Houston leads all of MLB with a 5.4 runs/game scoring average. There is no drop off in scoring when they hit the road. They have scored five or more runs in nine straight games, going back to the final series of the regular season. The last seven games, which includes the regular season finale, has seen them average 6.9 runs/games while batting .293. The Astros will need to score plenty of runs to win here in Boston because the Red Sox average 5.8 runs/game at Fenway Park. That led the league in scoring at home. Going back to the Wild Card Game, Boston has averaged 6.4 runs/game and hit .318. There are reasons to be concerned about both starters in Game 3 on Monday. For Houston, Jose Urquidy has not pitched since the regular season finale. Eduardo Rodriguez of Boston has a 5.78 ERA at Fenway this year. Even worse is his 7.02 ERA in 10 career postseason starts and his 11.57 ERA in two regular season starts vs. the Astros. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
10-17-21 | Seahawks +5.5 v. Steelers | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 52 h 28 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SEA So no Russell Wilson for Seattle. But are people really willing to lay this many points with a Pittsburgh team everyone was writing off two weeks ago? Before beating Denver 27-19 last week, the Steelers had lost three in a row and not scored 17 points in any of the games. They aren’t a good team by any means. In the win over Denver, JuJu Smith-Schuster was lost to a season-ending injury. So that makes the offense even worse. The Seahawks’ offense obviously takes a massive hit without Wilson. But remember that Geno Smith, the first QB other than Wilson to start for Seattle since 2011, did drive the field for a TD when he had to come in last Thursday. Getting the mini-bye is a big assist to Smith, who is 5-0 ATS his L5 games as a starter. The Seahawks are 16-8 ATS under Pete Carroll as an underdog of four or more points. The last five times Pittsburgh has been favored, they have lost the game. Play on SEATTLE AAA | |||||||
10-17-21 | Dodgers -171 v. Braves | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -171 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LA DODGERS The Braves had “their man” (Max Fried) on the hill for Game 1. It resulted in a 3-2 win as the home team walked off in the bottom of the ninth, thanks to an Austin Riley base hit. But now it’s the Dodgers’ turn to go with their best pitcher and that obviously means Max Scherzer. The only Scherzer start that Los Angeles has lost was Game 3 of the NLDS. He still went seven innings, had 10 strikeouts and gave up only one run on three hits. It was a 1-0 loss. But Scherzer got his revenge on the Giants when he retired the side, with two strikeouts, in the bottom of the ninth of Game 5. Having now made 13 starts for the Dodgers, Scherzer has allowed 0 or 1 run in 10 of them. After a loss is when you really want to back LA. They are 16-2 after their last 18 losses. Going all the way back to the end of July, there have been only two times where the Dodgers lost two in a row. One was late July, the other was early September. We haven’t mentioned the fact Atlanta is starting Ian Anderson in Game 2 because it’s pretty inconsequential to this play. You’ve got to back the Dodgers tonight. Play on LA DODGERS AAA | |||||||
10-17-21 | Stars v. Senators OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER The Stars and Senators both have two games under their belts. Each team also lost last night after winning their respective season openers. They’ve also both gone Under in both of their games. What’s really crazy is that the final scores for their first and second games were also the same. So there’s a lot these two have in common. Dallas beat the Rangers 3-2 before losing at Boston 3-1. Ottawa split its games with Toronto, winning the first 3-2 and losing the second 3-1. Playing against each other tonight, the most likely result is an Over. Since both teams fell behind early last night, we expect them to come out firing in this game. Dallas allowed 40 shots on goal last night. The Over is 12-3-3 the L18 times they’ve faced a team that scored two or less goals in its last game. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
10-17-21 | Cardinals v. Browns OVER 48 | Top | 37-14 | Win | 100 | 31 h 29 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER Well, there’s a lot going on with this matchup isn’t there?. Arizona, the only undefeated team left in the NFL, will be without its head coach and QB coach because of COVID-19. This is on top of several on the field absences: Center Rodney Hudson, TE Maxx Williams and LB Chandler Jones. But Cleveland is not unscathed coming into Week 6 either. They will be missing RB Nick Chubb. There were 16 others on the injury report, several of whom will not play. But these teams are still more than capable of sending this one Over the total. Cardinals QB Kyler Murray is having an MVP caliber season thus far as he has completed 70% of his passes in four straight games. The offense is fourth in points per game at 31.4. The Browns were just involved in a 47-42 game last week. They lost despite gaining 531 yards. While Chubb is out, Baker Mayfield can still hand the ball to Kareem Hunt, who once led the NFL in rushing.. Arizona being banged up in the secondary should open things up for the Browns in the passing game. When these defense have turned in quality performances this year, it has been because they’ve faced subpar quarterbacks. We believe the total has come down too much for this matchup. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
10-17-21 | Chargers +2.5 v. Ravens | Top | 6-34 | Loss | -102 | 45 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LAC The Chargers look like a good team this year. They are 4-1 straight up and ATS. They are 8-1 ATS L9 games, going back to 2020. They lead the AFC West after coming back to beat Cleveland 47-42 last week. They had a season-high 500+ yards in the game. The Chargers’ only loss was to Dallas on a last second field goal. QB Herbert seems like the real deal. He is fourth in passing yards and third in touchdowns. Now LA faces Baltimore, who is on a short week. The Ravens needed a wild comeback of their own to beat the Colts 31-25 on Monday night. It was their fourth win in a row, but third by six points or less. The other two were by a combined three points. They just as easily could be 1-4 straight up and we’d be having a much different conversation here. The Chargers are 49-22-5 ATS as road underdogs, 5-2 with Herbert as the quarterback. We will go with the better team getting points. Play on LA CHARGERS AAA | |||||||
10-17-21 | Bengals -180 v. Lions | Top | 34-11 | Win | 100 | 29 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 7* on CINCY MONEY LINE Poor Detroit can’t seem to buy a break. Twice in the past three weeks they have lost on a last second field goal. Last week they battled back from a 16-6 fourth quarter deficit and took a 17-16 lead with 37 seconds left. But they let Minnesota drive down to kick a game winning field goal on the final play. It was a very similar story and the same 19-17 final three weeks ago vs. Baltimore when Matt Prater got them with a record-setting 66 yard field goal at the gun. We get why people may think the Lions could break through this week when they host Cincinnati. But how can they overcome such continual heartbreak? Cincinnati is 3-2 after losing in overtime to Green Bay last week. Four of their five games have been decided by a field goal. So we won’t lay the points, but we do like the Bengals to win. The Lions haven’t scored more than 17 points in any of the last four weeks and Jared Goff is averaging only 6.6 yards per pass attempt. The team has covered back to back games just twice in its last six tries. Cincy has wins over Minnesota and Pittsburgh and could have beaten Green Bay. The money line means we don’t have to worry about them winning by more than three. Play CINCINNATI on the money line AAA | |||||||
10-17-21 | Dolphins v. Jaguars +3 | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 42 h 56 m | Show |
This is an 8* on JACKSONVILLE After going 0-3 with Jacoby Brissett as the starting quarterback, Miami will welcome Tua Tagovailoa back on Sunday. At least it looks that way. Coach Brian Flores said “if all goes well” in Friday’s practice, Tua will get the start. This next game comes in London against the 0-5 Jaguars. The matchup coupled with a potential Tua return has to have Dolphins fans thinking this is one where they end their losing streak. But they’ve been as bad as anybody this year, getting outscored by 76 points the last four weeks. The ‘Fins do have a worse scoring differential than the Jaguars this year. Speaking of losing streaks, the Jags have dropped 20 in a row going back to Week 1 of last year. They too look at this matchup as the one where they can end the streak. They are desperate and looking at the next couple weeks, we don’t see a game as “winnable” as this one for the Jags. Maybe leaving the country is what they need! Urban Meyer is certainly looking for a “vacation” after his rough last couple of weeks. Though they did lose on the scoreboard 37-19, Jacksonville ended up outgaining Tennessee last week and put up a season-high 454 total yards. Miami should not be favored against anyone, not even the Jags. Play on JACKSONVILLE AAA | |||||||
10-16-21 | Louisiana Tech v. UTEP +7 | Top | 3-19 | Win | 100 | 56 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UTEP UTEP is 5-1, which is their best record in ages. The Miners lone loss came at Boise State. Since then they have beaten New Mexico, Old Dominion and Southern Miss while covering the spread in every game. They are home underdogs this week to Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs had last week off. A quick note about their season - all five games have been decided by seven points or less. So we wouldn’t want to be caught laying so many points with them on the road. The wins came against SE Louisiana and North Texas. The defense is giving up almost 475 yards/game. UTEP’s defense barely allows more than 300. It’s that defense that will give Dana Dimel’s team the chance to pull the upset this week. At the very least, UTEP stays within the number. They were 3-0 ATS as a double digit dog vs. Conference USA opponents last year. The spread isn’t quite that high here. But this game means a lot to UTEP as they’ve lost eight straight times to La Tech despite outgaining them in half those games. La Tech is only 1-4 ATS the previous five times they have been favored. Play on UTEP AAA | |||||||
10-16-21 | Stars v. Bruins -160 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
This is an 8* on BOSTON Heading into Saturday, there are still four teams in the NHL who have yet to play a regular season game. One of them is Boston, who will open things up tonight by hosting by Dallas. The Stars opened their season with a 3-2 overtime win against the Rangers. They were outshot 33-26, although they did open a 2-0 lead early in the second period. The odds of Dallas starting their season with two straight wins seem remote. That’s because they are 8-22 their previous 30 games as an underdog, including 2-6 L8 on the road. They are 6-13 SU their L19 games after a win. Boston figures to be one of the league’s best teams this season, even after moving on from longtime goaltender Tuukka Rask. Linus Ullmark should be more than an adequate replacement for Rask. Play on BOSTON AAA | |||||||
10-16-21 | Alabama v. Mississippi State OVER 57.5 | Top | 49-9 | Win | 100 | 54 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 9* on OVER Alabama, coming off its first loss since November 2019, heads to Starkville this week to face Mississippi State. The Crimson Tide were stunned last Saturday night down in College Station, losing to Texas A&M as 15.5 point favorites. They gave up 41 points, too many to overcome, especially after falling into a two touchdown hole at halftime. But the Tide did outgain the Aggies 522-379. They put up 38 points and have now scored 31 or more every game in 2021. They should not have a problem moving the ball or scoring on Miss State, who was off last week after they went on the road and defeated Texas A&M two weekends ago. The Bulldogs’ defense has had only one good game so far. They’ve been pretty consistent on offense, averaging 27.8 points/game. Miss State has not scored many points on the Bama defense through the years, but Mike Leach is now the head coach. Leach’s offense is averaging 429 yards/game, almost all of it coming through the air. Will Rogers is the only SEC quarterback to throw for 400 yards and two or more TDs in the same game and he’s done it twice. Off a loss, Bama will come out firing but MSU can score too. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
10-16-21 | Kentucky +23 v. Georgia | Top | 13-30 | Win | 100 | 51 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* on KENTUCKY It’s another big time showdown in the SEC this week as #11 Kentucky takes on #1 Georgia. Both schools are 6-0 and the last unbeatens in the conference. But the oddsmakers clearly see this as a mismatch with UK being installed as a pretty massive underdog. The spread here is even larger than when Georgia hosted Arkansas two weeks ago and won 37-0. The Razorbacks were ranked #8 going into that game. But we expect the Wildcats to do better than the Hogs did in Athens. This is Georgia’s third straight game against a Top 20 opponent. That can wear on even the best teams. What’s impressive is that the Bulldogs beat both Arkansas and Auburn with their backup QB (Stetson Bennett) under center. Georgia’s defense is obviously great. But so is Kentucky’s, which allows just 17.5 points and 305 yards per contest. In what figures to be a relatively low-scoring affair, taking the big number just seems like a no-brainer. The Wildcats are probably the best offensive team that Georgia has faced. So we expect them to be the first team to score more than 14 points on the ‘Dawgs this season. That’ll be enough to cover. Play on KENTUCKY AAA | |||||||
10-16-21 | Ball State v. Eastern Michigan +1.5 | Top | 38-31 | Loss | -112 | 49 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 9* on EASTERN MICHIGAN Ball State’s season did not get off to a good start as they were 1-3 straight up and 0-4 against the spread through four games. But the Cardinals are coming off two straight upsets, one over Army and the other over Western Michigan. Both wins were very impressive as they won by 12 and 25 and were a double digit dog for each game. This week they are a slight favorite at Eastern Michigan. Ball State has not been favored since Week 1 when they played Western Illinois. Eastern Michigan is 4-2 with its only losses coming on the road. One was at Wisconsin and the other was at Northern Illinois and featured a long delay. We like the home team in this Saturday MAC matchup. Eastern Michigan won a low-scoring game last week, 13-12 against Miami, and should keep the BSU offense in check. There have been three games this year where the Cardinals did not score more than 13 points. Last week saw them get to 45, but it definitely helped to get four turnovers from Western Michigan. One was a fumble that BSU returned for a touchdown. Two others set the offense up on a short field. Eastern Michigan rarely has a bad game in conference play and we like them to win Saturday. Play on EASTERN MICHIGAN AAA | |||||||
10-16-21 | Michigan State -4.5 v. Indiana | Top | 20-15 | Win | 100 | 47 h 19 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MICHIGAN STATE We will continue to take Michigan State until the oddsmakers finally “catch up” and realize just how good Mel Tucker’s team really is. Sparty is now 6-0 following the 31-13 beatdown they handed Rutgers last week. We laid the points in that one and will do the same again here against Indiana. Last week, we said “that Rutgers just doesn’t have the offensive capability to stay within a short number, even at home.” That obviously turned out to be the case. Tucker’s team has been way more explosive than anticipated, averaging 36.7 points/game. There’s been only one game where they failed to score more than 30. They have the nation’s leading rusher in Kenneth Walker III. Indiana is a disappointing 2-3 with one of the wins coming by only two points over Western Kentucky. The Hoosiers are 0-2 in the Big 10 having been outscored 58-6 by Iowa and Penn State. They also lost by 14 at home to Cincinnati. Those were all ranked teams. There’s no shame in losing to a Top 25 team, but the problem here for IU is that Sparty comes in ranked #10. QB Michael Penix Jr may also be out for the Hoosiers. Michigan State has covered six in a row as a road favorite. Play on MICHIGAN STATE AAA | |||||||
10-15-21 | San Diego State v. San Jose State UNDER 41.5 | Top | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 34 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER It’s a low total Friday night in San Jose. But when you factor in that the Spartans have scored 17 or less points in four of their last five games, all of a sudden the number doesn’t look that low. San Diego State is giving up just 16.6 points/game on the year. The Aztecs rank among the top 20 nationally in scoring defense. So that’s one side of the equation. The other is how many will SDSU score? We don’t think it will be a lot. San Jose State can play some defense too, evident by the fact they are giving up just 23.8 points/game. SJSU’s defensive coordinator is Rocky Long. Long used to be the head coach at San Diego State. Both teams are unsettled at quarterback, which is something that is worth noting. The San Diego State offense has yet to have a 200 yard passing day this season. Nor has San Jose State in its last three games. The Spartans also won’t be able to run the ball very effectively in this contest as the Aztecs are permitting only 50 rush yards/game. The Under is 5-0 in San Diego State’s previous five Friday night games. Should be a low-scoring affair on the West Coast. Play on UNDER AAA | |||||||
10-15-21 | Wild -155 v. Ducks | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MINNESOTA The Wild opens its 2021-22 season Friday night at The Pond. The Ducks have already played a game and were 4-1 winners here on home ice against Winnipeg. We do not see Anaheim opening with two straight underdog wins. They’ve lost to the Wild seven straight times while getting outscored 24-13. The Ducks haven’t been “good” in some time, having finished at/near the bottom of the division for three straight seasons. In addition to having the Ducks’ number, Minnesota has made the playoffs eight of the last nine years. The Wild were one of the highest scoring teams in the league last year and are a deserved favorite in this one. Play on MINNESOTA AAA | |||||||
10-15-21 | Red Sox v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 102 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER Going back to their series of the regular season (vs. Oakland), the Astros have averaged 7.7 runs over their last seven games, a stretch in which the Over is 6-1. Not to be outdone, the Red Sox scored 26 runs in their three wins over the Rays in the ALDS. They’ve averaged 6.3 runs in their last seven games. These were two of the five highest scoring teams in the regular season with Houston being #1. So this year’s ALCS figures to turn into a “slugfest” in short order. For Game 1, we’ve got two starting pitchers that have been struggling. Boston’s Chris Sale has a 10.39 ERA and 1.96 WHIP in his last three starts. Sale pitched one inning in the ALDS and allowed five runs. He has a 7.37 ERA and 1.71 WHIP on the road this year. Houston’s Framber Valdez has a 5.06 ERA in his past three starts after giving up four runs in each of the last two. The Over has hit in five of Valdez’s last six starts. All signs point to plenty of runs being scored tonight. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
10-15-21 | Clemson v. Syracuse +13.5 | Top | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 31 h 38 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SYRACUSE Clemson laying two scores on the road? No thanks. Since winning the National Championship in Jan of ‘19, the Tigers are just 5-13 against the spread. They have failed to cover every game going back to last season’s playoff loss to Ohio State. Their three wins this year came against South Carolina State (FCS), Georgia Tech (14-8 as 27.5 point favorites) and Boston College (19-13 as 14.5 point favorites). Other than the game vs. South Carolina State, the Clemson offense has scored just 50 regulation points all season. Syracuse has already pulled one big upset here at the Carrier Dome this season. They handed Liberty their only loss back on 9/24 in what was also a Friday night game. They almost pulled another upset last week, but eventually fell in overtime to unbeaten Wake Forest. Two of the Orange’s three defeats have been by three points and none have been by greater than 10 points. Go with the underdog in this ACC matchup. Play on SYRACUSE AAA | |||||||
10-14-21 | Dodgers +100 v. Giants | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LA The two starting pitchers for Game 5 have proven themselves to be very difficult to beat. The Giants’ Logan Webb has not lost a game since May 11th. The team is 19-2 his past 21 starts. The Dodgers’ Julio Urias is 12-0 since June 21st with the team’s record being 16-2 in his past 18 starts. Both pitched well in their previous start in this LDS. So something will have to give. Might it be the bullpens that decide this game? The Dodgers’ pen seems to be fresher at this point of the series. Manager Dave Roberts has only had to make the call to the bullpen seven times in the last two games. The Giants have called upon 10 different relievers over the same time. While Los Angeles has been shutout twice in the series, they’ve still scored seven more runs than San Francisco over the course of the four games. The Giants have only scored nine runs the entire series and only five in the last three games. At the end of the day, we just think that the Dodgers are the better of the two teams. Play on LOS ANGELES AAA | |||||||
10-14-21 | Bucs -6.5 v. Eagles | Top | 28-22 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TB Tampa Bay comes in at 4-1 SU, but just 2-3 against the spread. Philadelphia is 2-3 both SU and ATS. The Buccaneers are clearly the better team in this matchup as they are averaging 33.4 points/game while only giving up an average of 24.4. The Eagles give up a similar number of points/game (24.8) but their problem is they score far fewer (23.0). We just don’t see the Eagles having enough firepower to stay within a touchdown against a team like Tampa. The Eagles were down 15-3 to Carolina in the second half last week before a late rally earned them the upset win. They didn’t go ahead until less than three minutes were left in the game. The Bucs pretty much led start to finish against the Dolphins last week on their way to an eventual 45-17 win where they had no problem covering the double digit spread. We’d say the Bucs have faced two bad teams thus far - Miami and Atlanta. They won both games by 23 or more points. The Eagles are a bad team. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA | |||||||
10-14-21 | Georgia Southern v. South Alabama -149 | Top | 14-41 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 8* on S ALABAMA ML Georgia Southern seemed a bit lucky to earn the ATS win last week at Troy. Not only were they down 24-3 early in the second half, but the Eagles found themselves outgained 409-301 for the game. It was their fourth loss in five weeks and now they head to South Alabama for a second straight road game. The Eagles are 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS the prior seven meetings vs. the Jaguars. But the last two years the games have been close, with one going to double overtime. That 2OT game took place the last time the Eagles visited Mobile, which was two years ago. South Alabama comes into tonight sporting a better record than Ga Southern. The Jaguars are 3-2, although we should point out they’ve lost back to back games. Both were two point losses, however. The Jags' last four games have all been decided by seven points or less. But they are 4-1 SU and ATS the last five times they’ve been a home favorite of three points or less. Georgia Southern is 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS the last five times they have been a road underdog of three points or less. Rather than lay the points in this Thursday night Sun Belt matchup, we will simply play the favorite on the money line. We fully expect South Alabama to win this game. Play on SOUTH ALABAMA AAA | |||||||
10-14-21 | Penguins v. Panthers -175 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 7* on FLA The Penguins surprised everyone, including us, by going into Tampa Bay and winning 6-2 on Opening Night. We think their chances of starting the season with consecutive wins as big underdogs are rather small. Give Pittsburgh credit for outworking the Lightning in the opener. But the final score was highly misleading. The last three goals all came on an empty net. Remember that the Pens are playing shorthanded. They are without Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. This is going to be Florida’s first game and they should take advantage of all the absences on the Penguins’ bench (more than just Crosby and Malkin). The Panthers finished with the fourth most points in last year’s truncated regular season and were 20-5-3 on home ice. Play on FLORIDA AAA | |||||||
10-13-21 | Blackhawks v. Avalanche OVER 6 | Top | 2-4 | Push | 0 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The season is already off to an auspicious start in Colorado where the Avalanche are without star Nathan MacKinnon and coach Jared Bednar because of COVID-19. The team is hopeful neither absence will be lengthy. That being said, there’s a reason the Avs are considered Stanley Cup favorites coming into the season. They have tremendous depth. We don’t see them having any difficulty scoring tonight when they open the season at home vs. Chicago. The Avs will definitely be motivated to score as they go up against old nemesis Marc-Andre Fleury, who now is between the pipes for the Blackhawks after coming over from Vegas in the offseason. Fleury helped Vegas to four straight wins over Colorado in last year’s playoffs, but he’s got a much weaker team in front of him now. Chicago was top 10 in goals allowed last year. Colorado led the league in scoring. Because of the bubble, these two teams did not face off last year. But the Avalanche have scored at least four times the previous four times they’ve played the Blackhawks. One concern for the Avs is in goal where they let Philipp Grubauer depart in free agency. Darcy Kuemper is the replacement and he was tied for 29th in the league in save percentage in 2020-21. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
10-12-21 | Penguins v. Lightning -175 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -175 | 34 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 7* on TB The big story for the season opener between the Penguins and Lightning is that Sidney Crosby is not expected to be on the ice. The Penguins’ star is still recovering from off-season wrist surgery and probably won’t be back until later this month. It’s a key absence for a Penguins team that is already outgunned in this matchup. In case you’d forgotten, the Lightning repeated as Stanley Cup Champions last June. They bring back the entire foundation of the two championship teams and unlike last year, Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov should be around the entire regular season. They are one of the favorites to win it all again this year, rightfully so, and if they do it they’d pull off the first three-peat since the Islanders won four in a row 40 years ago. Minus Crosby and Evgeni Malkin (also injured), the Penguins have little chance here. They have lost seven of the last nine times they’ve played the Lightning while dropping all five here in Tampa. All but one loss came in regulation time. Even if Crosby miraculously suits up, the Pens won’t win here. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA | |||||||
10-12-21 | Appalachian State v. UL-Lafayette OVER 57 | Top | 13-41 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Over the next two weeks, Appalachian State will face the other two top Sun Belt teams. Next week they’ve got undefeated Coastal Carolina at home. But tonight the Mountaineers must travel to face Louisiana. Both teams are 4-1 SU on the season with a loss to a Power 5 school. App State lost by two at Miami while Louisiana got beat by Texas 38-18. The last three ASU games have all gone Over with them averaging 40 points and 537 yards per contest. Louisiana is 4-1 Under on the year, but has averaged 38 points in two home games. Defensively, the Ragin Cajuns do struggle to stop the run. They are allowing 171 yards/game on the ground. That’s a problem going against ASU, a team that averages almost 200 yards rushing/game. The road team is probably going to put a lot of points on the board here. We know that Louisiana has gone over 28 points in just one game this season, but if they were to hit that number tonight, the Over would be a virtual lock. We think it’s very possible as the Over is 4-0 the previous four times ULL has been a home underdog. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
10-12-21 | Astros v. White Sox -110 | Top | 10-1 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CWS The White Sox were able to stave off elimination with a 12-6 win on Monday. Then their season was extended another day when Mother Nature came calling on Tuesday. The rainout pushed Game 4 back to today and we think the situation favors the home team. Certainly, there’s no denying that the White Sox prefer to be at home. They are 54-28 at Guaranteed Rate Field as opposed to 40-43 on the road. It will be Carlos Rodon starting today’s game for the home team. Rodon was probably Chicago’s best starter in the regular season. He has battled injuries, including a sore arm down the stretch. But he threw five shutout innings in his last regular season start and brings a 2.37 ERA and 0.96 WHIP into the postseason. Houston is going with Lance McCullers Jr, who won Game 1. This is a change from Jose Urquidy, who was set to go yesterday before the rain said no. With the White Sox accusing the Astros of stealing signs, there’s some real “bad blood” between the two teams. But we think it boils down to the White Sox homefield advantage and being faced with elimination. The Astros are 0-5 in their last five road games. Play on CHICAGO AAA | |||||||
10-11-21 | Colts +7.5 v. Ravens | Top | 25-31 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on IND Home teams are 4-0 ATS so far on Monday Night Football. But this is kind of a big number that the Ravens are laying this week. The Colts being 1-3 shouldn’t be that surprising. They’ve been the underdog in all four games. Baltimore has been an underdog twice, so they should be celebrating a 3-1 record to this point. But two of their wins have come by a total of three points. That means they could easily be 1-3, just like the Colts, coming into tonight. Last week was Baltimore’s best performance of the year but it came against a Denver team that was down to its backup QB. Indianapolis also beat a backup QB last week for its first win. Carson Wentz gets a lot of criticism, but hasn’t really played all that badly. He’s thrown five touchdowns and only one interception. The Ravens are 0-2 ATS when favored this year and those two games saw them lose to the Raiders and barely defeat the winless Lions. It seems like they may be a little preoccupied with setting a new NFL record for most consecutive games with 100 or more yards rushing. They can make it 44 straight tonight, which would be the new record. But they haven’t been that effective in running the ball the past two games. Maybe a stubbornness to run keeps this game close? Indy is 10-2 ATS the past 12 meetings with the Ravens and 6-1 here in Baltimore. This is the most points they’ve gotten in any game all year. Play on INDIANAPOLIS AAA | |||||||
10-11-21 | Brewers +100 v. Braves | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE Atlanta was able to even this series up with a 3-0 win in Game 2. We did not have a play on that game. We did cash Milwaukee in Game 1 though. Believe it or not, we are even more apt to take the Brewers now that the series has moved to Atlanta. The Brewers were 50-31 on the road in the regular season. That’s a better record than they have at home. Not only does the team score more when it’s on the road, but they also give up far less runs. No team allowed fewer runs on the road than Milwaukee did during the regular season. They gave up just 3.4 per game while scoring 4.8 themselves. Freddy Peralta will be the starter for Game 3. He comes in with a 18-9 TSR, 2.85 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. Peralta faced the Braves one time this year and he kept them scoreless for six innings. He allowed only two hits in the outing. The Braves are countering with Ian Anderson, who is 4-0 in his last six starts. But there were two different starts where Anderson allowed four runs and he’s allowed seven home runs in the last five starts. The Braves are only 42-38 at home. Throw in the fact the Brewers are 41-25 in day games and we really like the road team in this one. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA | |||||||
10-10-21 | Bills v. Chiefs -2.5 | Top | 38-20 | Loss | -120 | 35 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* on KC The sky was falling in Kansas City last week. The Chiefs were 1-2 with a defense that seemingly couldn’t stop anybody. That defense remains a question mark, but the offense scored a touchdown on all but one possession last week and the Chiefs beat the Eagles 42-30. Patrick Mahomes threw five touchdown passes. The team has scored 33 points in three of its four games. It’s a big test this week at home vs. Buffalo in the Sunday Night game. But keep two things in mind. One is that the Chiefs were 2-0 vs. the Bills last year. The second win came in the AFC Championship Game. The Bills, who are obviously thinking revenge, have looked as good as any team in the league the last three weeks. But the second thing to keep in mind is just how rare it is to get Mahomes as this short of a favorite. He is 9-1-1 ATS in his career when not favored by more than a field goal. Depending where the line closes, this could be the first time at home in his career that he’s not favored by at least three points. As impressive as the Bills have looked in those last three games, it’s been all bad teams they’ve played. We like the Chiefs. Play on KANSAS CITY AAA | |||||||
10-10-21 | Astros v. White Sox OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-12 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Houston is the highest scoring team in the majors. They average 5.4 runs/game. In the first two games of this series, they scored 6 and 9 runs. They’ve now scored six or more runs in five straight games going back to the final regular season series. If you’re looking for any sort of decrease in offensive production now that the Astros are on the road, you better think again. They average the same number of runs/game on the road as they do at home. But it is going to take quite a few runs to win tonight as Chicago puts up an average of 5.1 runs/game at Guaranteed Rate Field. The White Sox had 11 hits in Game 2, but all were singles. They will face Luis Garcia here in Game 3. Garcia’s ERA is nearly two full points higher on the road than it is at home. So there is still hope for Chicago as they look to avoid being swept. But we are concerned that Dylan Cease was knocked around by the Astros earlier this year. He gave up seven runs to them back in June. With concerns about both starting pitchers, it seems quite probable that each team can score five runs tonight. Taking the Over seems like the logical move here. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
10-10-21 | Giants +7 v. Cowboys | Top | 20-44 | Loss | -107 | 31 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 9* on NYG Dallas is the only 4-0 ATS team. But we know all about how the Giants do when priced as road underdogs. They are 18-4 against the spread in the role since 2018. QB Jones is 10-2 ATS as a road dog, even though he’s won just three of those games straight up. This just has the feel of a close NFC East game. The Cowboys did cover as short favorites in each of the last two games. But they are still only 3-6 ATS as favorites since the start of last season, including 2-5 at home. Each of the Giants' previous three games have been decided by six points or fewer. Their last two losses were by one and four points. We were impressed by Jones last week. He had his first 400 yard day as a pro and that was against a good Saints defense. In two road games, the Giants’ offense has averaged 28 points. That should be enough to at least cover this week. The G-men’s reputation as a road underdog speaks for itself. Play on NY GIANTS AAA | |||||||
10-10-21 | Eagles v. Panthers OVER 45.5 | Top | 21-18 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 43 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER The Eagles’ defense has been terrible the past two weeks. Some of that has to do with losing defensive end Brandon Graham to a season ending ACL injury. Some of it has to do with facing the Cowboys and Chiefs. Still, there’s no excuse for giving up 41+ points in back to back games. Philadelphia is 31st in the league right now at stopping the run, so even without Christian McCaffery they can move the ball. The 3-1 Panthers have averaged 26 points/game the last three weeks and should have no problem achieving that average again. But their defense was exposed a bit last week as they too got a taste of the Cowboys. Carolina allowed 36 points against Dallas, which was more than they allowed the first three weeks when they faced the Jets, Saints and Texans. We think the Eagles are going to be able to do something closer to what the Cowboys did than the other three teams. Jalen Hurts is coming off a career day where he threw for 387 yards. Twice the Eagles have hit 30 points this year and only once have they been held under 21. The Over is 33-16 in Philadelphia’s past 49 road games and is 21-9 L30 when they are a road dog. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
10-10-21 | Jets v. Falcons -2.5 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 19 h 0 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ATLANTA They gave the game away last week, but we cannot see Atlanta losing again. Not to a Jets team that scored more points last week than they did in the first three games combined. Maybe heading across the Atlantic Ocean is what the Falcons need right now. They are 1-3 and really in need of a win. Two weeks ago, we said the Falcons would win and they did - beating the Giants 17-14. The Jets beat Tennessee in overtime last week, but it can’t be forgotten how poorly they looked in the first three games. Atlanta should have made it two wins in a row last week, but blew a late lead to Washington at home. They allowed the game-winning touchdown in the final minute of regulation. The Falcons should get to five wins this year. This is one of the games their fanbase had to have circled as a win. With Calvin Ridley not making the trip, expect to see a healthy dose of Kyle Pitts and Cordarrelle Patterson. We trust Matt Ryan more than we do Jets rookie Zach Wilson. This is not a true road game, but the Jets are 2-8 ATS L10 games away from home. Favorites are 17-11 ATS in these London games. The Falcons need this one badly. Play on ATLANTA AAA | |||||||
10-09-21 | Dodgers v. Giants OVER 7 | Top | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The Dodgers misfired in Game 1, losing 4-0 to the Giants. Even without Max Muncy’s 36 homers and 94 RBI’s, this lineup is far too potent to be held down like that again. This was the highest scoring National League team in the regular season. Only three American League teams scored more runs than the Dodgers in 2021 and they all got to use the DH most games. The Giants were the second highest scoring NL club and sixth overall. So even with two good starters on the hill for Game 2, we’re going to see more runs scored than we did in Game 1. Dodgers’ games average 8.7 runs. Giants’ games average 8.5. LA hasn’t lost a game with Urias pitching since July. But the southpaw did have one really bad start vs. the Giants this year, one where he got shelled for seven runs in five innings. San Francisco did homer three times Friday. Giants starter Kevin Gausman’s last six starts were all against non-playoff teams (three vs. San DIego) and he allowed seven homers. The offenses will get this one Over a low number. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
10-09-21 | New Mexico +19.5 v. San Diego State | Top | 7-31 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NEW MEXICO After starting 2-0, New Mexico has lost three in a row. They were blown out in two of the three losses, once by Texas A&M and then last Saturday by Air Force. The Lobos are just one of three 0-5 ATS teams in the country, the others being Clemson and Missouri. They are getting a lot of points this week at San Diego State, who is ranked for the first time in two years. It’s also just the second time in the past 40 years that the Aztecs have gotten off to a 4-0 start. They are ranked because of that 4-0 start, but good luck convincing us that this is one of the 25 best teams in the country. Triple overtime was needed to get by Utah three weeks ago. That was a game where SDSU got outgained 327-248. Their passing game has been pretty much non-existent. New Mexico’s defensive coordinator Rocky Long knows SDSU well. He was their head coach up until 2020. We don’t think the underdog is going to win Saturday night, but they will cover the spread for the first time in 2021. Play on NEW MEXICO AAA | |||||||
10-09-21 | Michigan -3.5 v. Nebraska | Top | 32-29 | Loss | -104 | 53 h 8 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MICHIGAN Michigan is 5-0 and playing good fundamentally sound football. They were last week’s top pick when they went to Wisconsin and laid it on the Badgers 38-17. Can you believe they were underdogs in that one? The Wolverines have yet to surrender more than 17 points in any game and have turned the ball over just one time. This week they are at Nebraska, who has covered the number five straight weeks and is off a 56-7 win. Our view is that this is a great time to sell high on the Cornhuskers. None of the teams they have beaten - Fordham, Buffalo or Northwestern - are any good. Neither is Illinois, the first team they lost to this year. We faded the ‘Huskers there in what ended up being a 30-22 loss as 6.5-point road favorites. They did come close at Oklahoma and Michigan State, but ultimately failed. This line should be closer to a touchdown. Be aware that Nebraska almost always loses the close ones as they are 5-15 straight up in one score games under Scott Frost. We definitely see Michigan winning this one by more than a field goal. In its three losses this year, Nebraska has been held to an average of less than 20 points. Michigan will score at least 30 Saturday night and move to 6-0. Play on MICHIGAN AAA | |||||||
10-09-21 | South Alabama v. Texas State UNDER 53 | Top | 31-33 | Loss | -117 | 53 h 38 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the UNDER Here is a Saturday matchup off the radar of most. South Alabama is 3-1. Their last three games have been decided by a total of 12 points. Last week saw the Jaguars lose for the first time, 20-18 to Louisiana. We are surprised that this total is north of 50 points seeing as no USA game this season has seen that many scored. Texas State, 1-3 on the year, is coming off two high scoring games. Both were losses, one of them at home to Incarnate Word by a score of 42-34! Then the Bobcats went to Eastern Michigan and got beat 59-21. They were off last week. With an extra week to prepare, look for their defense to get back on track here. The Under is 7-1 in Texas State’s last eight games after a bye. It also helps that South Alabama has not scored more than 31 in any game this season. Texas State has averaged fewer than 20 points/game vs. FBS teams, excluding overtime. So we just can’t see this one getting to 50 points, let alone more than that. The Under is 6-1 in the Jaguars’ last seven road games and 4-0 the last four times they’ve been off an ATS win. Play on UNDER AAA | |||||||
10-09-21 | Middle Tennessee State v. Liberty -19.5 | Top | 13-41 | Win | 100 | 49 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LIBERTY Two teams coming off upset victories are playing here as Liberty hosts Middle Tennessee. The difference is that last week was the first time Liberty had been a dog in 2021. MTSU has been a dog against every FBS team they have faced. Here is no different as the oddsmakers don’t believe in the Blue Raiders at all. We don’t either. All three of their losses have been on the road and Liberty might just be the best team they’ve faced so far. The Flames going to UAB last weekend and winning 36-12 really caught our eye. They put up nearly 550 total yards of offense. Liberty’s lone loss came in the Carrier Dome and that was a game where they had the edge in total yards. This defense is giving up just 266.4 yards/game, so expect MTSU to struggle to move the ball here. Against the two toughest teams they have faced, Virginia Tech and UTSA, the Blue Raiders were held to just 14 and 13 points. We expect them to score a similar number this Saturday afternoon. Syracuse was the only team to score more than 17 on Liberty thus far. So it’s up to the Flames’ offense to turn this into a blowout. Considering MTSU is allowing over 30 points/game vs. FBS teams, something like a 40-14 final, sounds pretty logical here. You may not know that Liberty is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games with the two losses coming by four total points. This is a good team! Play on LIBERTY AAA | |||||||
10-09-21 | Michigan State -5 v. Rutgers | Top | 31-13 | Win | 100 | 46 h 39 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MICH STATE Michigan State being 5-0 probably comes as a bit of a surprise to most. Twice they’ve gone on the road and pulled “upsets.” The word upsets is in quotes because those wins came at Northwestern and Miami FL, two teams we now know aren’t very good. So we’re not surprised Sparty is 5-0 coming into this weekend’s game at Rutgers. What we are a bit surprised about is the fact the offense is averaging 37.8 points/game. A close call over Nebraska, a game which went to OT ironically, was the only time they haven’t exceeded that average. Rutgers, on the other hand, has been held to 17 points or less in three of its last four games. The Scarlet Knights are coming off losses to Michigan and Ohio State the past two weeks. Like MSU, they are 4-1 ATS. Last week marked the first time Greg Schiano’s team did not cover as they were blown out 52-13 in Columbus. The defense gave up 541 yards and the team was down 45-6 at half. Don’t expect Michigan State to take it easy on them. Sparty has revenge for a 38-27 loss in 2020 where it turned the ball over seven times. Our view is that Rutgers just doesn’t have the offensive capability to stay within a short number, even at home. Lay it! Play on MICHIGAN STATE AAA | |||||||
10-08-21 | Dodgers -116 v. Giants | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -116 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 9* on LA DODGERS Without question, the most marquee series in the Divisional Round is between the Dodgers and Giants. Both teams won 106 regular season games with San Francisco finishing one ahead for first place in the NL West. The Giants have the home field advantage and have been an incredible story throughout 2021, eclipsing their projected win total by 34! But the Dodgers are the defending World Series Champs and still the favorite. They had baseball’s best run differential in the regular season. As for which team comes into the playoffs hotter, the Dodgers have won eight straight (including the Wild Card Game) and 18 of 21. The Giants, not to be outdone, are 20-5 in their L25 games. We simply feel the Dodgers are the team to beat. Does it not speak volumes that they come into Game 1 as slight favorites? Maybe that shouldn’t be a surprise at all, considering the Dodgers have been underdogs in only two games all year. Walker Buehler is 16-4 with the third best ERA in baseball and is 7-1 all-time vs. the Giants. He won twice this year here in San Francisco. Logan Webb hasn’t lost since May 5th for the Giants, but is a lot less proven compared to Buehler on this stage. Since we like the Dodgers in this series, it only makes sense to take them in Game 1. Play on LA DODGERS AAA | |||||||
10-08-21 | Temple v. Cincinnati -28.5 | Top | 3-52 | Win | 100 | 52 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CINCINNATI Cincinnati is 4-0 and ranked #5 in the country. The Bearcats went into Notre Dame last week and defeated the Fighting Irish 24-13 as 2.5 point favorites. We think it says a lot about where this program is at right now that they were favored to win in South Bend. They also covered in Indiana as favorites three weeks ago. It’s a much easier game this week as Luke Fickell’s team returns to Nippert Stadium to take on 3-2 Temple. The Owls pulled out an upset last week at home, coming back from 17 down to beat Memphis 34-31. That was a real shocker when you look and see the Owls were 11 point underdogs. Temple won only one game in 2020, so they’ve already surpassed last year’s win total. The spread here is large, but not without justification as both of Temple’s losses were by 25 or more points and those came against Rutgers and BC. The Owls are 0-4 ATS off an ATS win. Cincinnati has won 22 straight at home, the last loss coming to Temple back in 2017. The coaching staff will be sure to remind the players of that last home loss and we like the Bearcats to make another statement in front of a national TV audience. They led ND 17-0 last week. Here, they will not take their foot off the gas pedal. Play on CINCINNATI AAA | |||||||
10-08-21 | Braves v. Brewers -138 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 30 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE The champions of the NL East and NL Central meet in this League Division Series as Atlanta takes on Milwaukee. It was a 3-3 split of the six regular season meetings. Each series saw the road team win twice. By virtue of having the better overall record, the Brewers have home field advantage. The Braves weren’t even a .500 team until August. Something else the home team has for Game 1 Friday night is Corbin Burnes. He had as good a year as any starter in the majors. Burnes finished the regular season with a 2.35 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. Since May 31st, the Brewers are 17-3 in his starts. So this is a tall mountain to climb for an Atlanta team that is just one game over .500 when not facing a division opponent. What’s so significant about that record is the fact no one else in the NL East finished with more than 82 wins. It was definitely the weakest of the six divisions this season. The afternoon start on Friday would seem to favor Milwaukee as they are 40-24 in day games. Look for Burnes to outpitch Charlie Morton in Game 1. Atlanta’s typically aggressive hitters will struggle against someone who doesn’t issue many walks. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA | |||||||
10-07-21 | Red Sox v. Rays OVER 8 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER It didn’t take long for the Red Sox to jump on Gerrit Cole in the Wild Card Game Tuesday night. A two-run homer by Xander Bogaerts in the first inning set the tone and it was pretty much smooth sailing from that point on. Now it’s a date with AL East winner Tampa Bay in the LDS. Of course, these teams faced one another quite a bit during the regular season. The Rays hold an 11-8 head to head edge, but what we found interesting is that both wins over Boston in September were high-scoring affairs. Conversely, the three times that the Red Sox defeated the Rays in September, the games were all low scoring. That said, the Red Sox did average eight runs/game in their eight wins over TB this year. We anticipate this being a high-scoring game. Boston’s Eduardo Rodriguez has an 8.10 ERA in eight prior playoff appearances. He’s 2-4 with a 5.21 ERA in 13 career starts vs. the Rays. Shane McClanahan will start for Tampa, but probably won’t go too long. Boston did get to him for four runs in five innings last month. These are two of the top four highest scoring teams in the majors. The Over is 24-10-2 in the previous 36 meetings. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
10-07-21 | Houston -5.5 v. Tulane | Top | 40-22 | Win | 100 | 48 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON Houston (4-1) couldn’t have asked for a better start to last week’s game at Tulsa, which was also a weeknight affair. The Cougars scored on each of their opening three possessions to take a 21-0 lead less than a minute into the fourth quarter. That made it four straight wins since a loss to Texas Tech in the season opener. Now UH goes to Tulane, who is struggling at 1-4. The Green Wave have faced a pretty difficult schedule so far, including road trips to Oklahoma and Ole Miss. But there’s really no excuse for last week’s 52-29 setback at East Carolina. The Tulane defense is really struggling right now. They allowed 300 yards both passing and rushing against ECU. It was already the third time this year they gave up at least 40 points. Houston QB Clayton Tune has to be licking his chops here as he’s thrown for more than 250 yards/game over the previous four weeks. The Cougars offense should also be able to run all over Tulane. Houston’s defense has been stout, allowing only four touchdowns in the last four games. They have outscored teams 162-37 during the current win streak. Tulane has not led at any point in its last three games and has been outscored 141-71. Based on all this info, how can you not want to lay the points? Play on HOUSTON AAA | |||||||
10-06-21 | Cardinals v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 49 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LAD -1.5 (money line) They won 106 regular season games with a near $300 million payroll. But the Dodgers have to win a one-game playoff to move on. They finished one game back of the Giants in the NL West. San Francisco had the best record in the majors. If LA wins Wednesday, then they will move on to face those Giants in the NLDS. But first they must concern themselves with a St. Louis team that’s won 19 of its last 22 games. It was an incredible run for St. Louis to get here but they are pretty clearly outclassed in this matchup. The Dodgers are 18-3 in their last 21 games and have won the last seven. So they are every bit as hot as St. Louis is, if not hotter. They’ve also been much better over the full regular season. Max Scherzer was an unbelievable midseason acquisition for LA as they’ve won all 11 of his starts since he came over, even the last two when he didn’t pitch all that well. Scherzer has a 2.46 ERA and 0.86 WHIP over the full year. We understand that Adam Wainwright of the Cardinals has an 8-0 team start record his previous eight trips to the hill. But he did allow four runs the one time he faced the Dodgers. The last time Scherzer faced St. Louis, not only was it only an unearned run allowed in eight innings but he also had 13 strikeouts. The Dodgers have outscored teams by 1.8 runs/game at home, so we will gladly play the run line. Play LA DODGERS -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA | |||||||
10-05-21 | Yankees -117 v. Red Sox | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -117 | 25 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the YANKEES For most of Sunday, it looked as if one or both of these AL East teams would be forced into playing a 163rd regular season game. With Toronto already having won, a loss by either the Yankees or Red Sox would have put them into a tie with the Blue Jays for the Wild Card. As it turns out, both won by scoring the go ahead runs in the ninth inning. So we get the two long standing rivals representing the American League in the Wild Card Game. We like the Yankees to advance. They have been hotter down the stretch and are 6-0 their last six games vs. Boston. New York swept them at home in mid-August, then at Fenway the weekend before last. Over the second half of the season, the Yankees went 46-26. The Red Sox, on the other hand, have basically been a .500 team since the All Star Break. Gerrit Cole was a pretty obvious choice to start this game, despite a shaky last few starts. Boston’s Nathan Eovaldi also had a shaky finish to the regular season. Looking at two starters’ numbers, Cole’s are superior overall. He has a lower ERA and WHIP on the road than Eovaldi does at home. The Yankees have won their last eight games following an off-day. The Red Sox are just 4-14 in their last 18 games as an underdog. Play on NEW YORK AAA | |||||||
10-04-21 | Raiders v. Chargers -160 | Top | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 34 h 57 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CHARGERS ML Las Vegas is 3-0 but two of the three wins were in overtime and the other was against a banged-up Pittsburgh team. So what we’re saying here is “don’t fall for the record.” Los Angeles is 2-1 but has victories over two of last year’s division champs and probably should have beaten Dallas in Week 2. They defeated Kansas City last week, on the road, 30-24 as a seven-point underdog. We can’t see them losing to the Raiders this week. Being 3-0 is nice, but this is only the second time in NFL history a team has started 3-0 with two wins in OT. The Raiders were down 14-0 last week to the Dolphins and needed a last second field goal to force OT against the Ravens back in Week 1. This is a team that could easily be 1-2. Derek Carr does lead the NFL in passing yards, but we still prefer the Chargers QB - Justin Herbert - who threw four touchdown passes last week against the Chiefs. We have questions about the Raiders’ offensive line and entire defense. Both units are suspect. At the end of the day, we prefer to simply call for a Chargers SU win as opposed to laying the points. Play on LOS ANGELES AAA | |||||||
10-03-21 | Bucs v. Patriots +7 | Top | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 50 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 9* on NE For the first time ever, Tom Brady and Bill Belichick will be on opposite sidelines. There’s one team that Brady has never beaten in his career and that’s because he played for them for 20 seasons. Now he’s a visitor at Foxboro. His Buccaneers are coming off a loss, their first since Week 12 of last season. They were 5-0 ATS off a loss in the Super Bowl winning season, but they were a road favorite in just one of those five games. It was against Carolina, not a Bill Belichick coached team. It’s not a usual occurrence to see the Patriots getting this many points at Gillette Stadium. A defense that knows Brady well will keep this game close. Rob Gronkowski, another former Patriot, will miss this game. New England, a double digit loser to New Orleans in Week 3, is 4-0 the past four times they’ve been off a 10+ point loss at home. They are 9-2 ATS in their past 11 games as a home underdog. We expect one of the most heavily hyped regular season games in years to be close. Play on NEW ENGLAND AAA | |||||||
10-03-21 | Steelers v. Packers -6.5 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 46 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* on GB Ben Roethlisberger and Aaron Rodgers have faced off only twice in their Hall of Fame careers. One of them was a Super Bowl, won by Rodgers’ Packers. It’s unfortunate for Big Ben that the third all-time meeting takes place at this stage of the game. A Steelers offense that is averaging only 16.7 points/game has seen all three of its top receivers get hurt in 2021. Chase Claypool has already been ruled out for Sunday. Johnson and Smith-Schuster were non-factors last week, with Johnson sitting out. Both are expected to play this week, but Big Ben is averaging less than 10 yards per pass attempt. The Steelers are coming off two straight losses at home favorites. Up next is a Packers team that has won its previous two games. Rodgers has completed 75% of his passes with six touchdowns and zero interceptions in the pair of victories. Pittsburgh’s defense saw its streak of 75 straight games with a sack end last week. Their offensive struggles to protect the stationary Roethlisberger. Too many injuries for a suddenly bad Pittsburgh to overcome on the road. Play on GREEN BAY AAA | |||||||
10-03-21 | Cubs v. Cardinals -152 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -152 | 6 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 9* on ST. LOUIS The Cardinals are going to the playoffs. They don’t yet know who they’ll be facing in the Wild Card Game, only that it will be on the road against a 100+ win team. It comes down to what happens in the NL West between the Giants and Dodgers, who could be forced into Game 163 tomorrow if they are tied at the end of Sunday. That would probably be a dream scenario for St. Louis, who will be a big underdog in Wednesday’s NL Wild Card, no matter who they play. The good thing for Sunday is they are facing the Cubs, a 70-91 team playing out the string. Though the Cubs came from behind to stun the Cardinals last night, expect the home team to make it 20 wins in their last 22 games here. What a run it has been in the Gateway City. In addition to this incredible 19-2 run that they are, they’d beaten the Cubs seven straight times going into yesterday. No one disputes who the better team is here. The Cards send out Jake Woodford, who had a 1.90 ERA in September. The Cubs go with Alec Mills, who has given up 4+ runs in five of his last seven starts and has a 10.53 ERA in the previous three. St. Louis will want to go into Wednesday’s Wild Card Game with some momentum, not to mention win the final regular season game at home. Don’t overthink this one. Play on ST. LOUIS AAA | |||||||
10-03-21 | Washington Football Team -1.5 v. Falcons | Top | 34-30 | Win | 100 | 43 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WASHINGTON Washington is one of three teams that has yet to cover a game against the spread. They lost to the Chargers as a 1.5 point favorite, beat the Giants 30-29 as four point favorites and then got blown out by the Bills. The problem has been their defense just hasn’t been as good as it was in 2020. But this week they’re up against Atlanta, a fellow 1-2 SU team whose offense ranks 29th in points and 27th in yards. Falcons QB Matt Ryan is averaging only 235.7 YPG, which is well off his career pace. Atlanta got its first win of 2021 last week, also by beating the Giants. That followed blowout losses to the Bucs and Eagles. We had Atlanta last week, but the Giants are easily one of the worst teams in the league. The Football Team’s front four is going to give Ryan problems all day. We think QB Heinicke has played pretty well so far for the Football Team. Well, maybe not last week, but he had a 300+ yard game against the Giants and that was better than Ryan did last week. This is a homecoming for Heinicke as he grew up in the Atlanta era. We think he’s the guy to end Washington’s six-game losing streak to Atlanta. Play on WASHINGTON AAA | |||||||
10-03-21 | Colts v. Dolphins -1.5 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -115 | 43 h 50 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MIAMI The winless Colts take on the 1-2 Dolphins in a matchup of disappointing teams. But Miami, even without Tua Tagovailoa, made more than a decent accounting for itself last week in Las Vegas. They took an early 14-0 lead, then forced the Raiders into overtime. While it ended up being a second straight loss for the ‘Fins, at least they left with the cash as underdogs. Miami has the best cover percentage in the NFL these last two seasons and key to that is a 6-0 ATS mark when coming off a loss. This week they return home where they’ve covered four straight times as favorites. Indianapolis is not playing well right now as last week’s nine point loss to the Titans marked the first time they weren’t down double digits in a game. We know that Miami has an injured QB and injured center, but the Colts are in worse shape with Carson Wentz playing on two injured ankles behind an offensive line that is even more banged up than what’s going on in Miami right now. This game means a lot to Dolphins QB Brissett as he is facing his former team. We don’t see how a team can go on the road with a QB dealing with two injured ankles and win. Play on MIAMI AAA | |||||||
10-03-21 | Browns v. Vikings OVER 51 | Top | 14-7 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 50 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER Cleveland is a top 10 offense and QB Mayfield is completing 73% of his passes. But the strength of this Browns offense is the run game. It’s arguably the best in the league with Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb. Coach Kevin Stefanski knows the opponent well as he previously served as the offensive coordinator under Mike Zimmer in Minnesota. But the Vikings can score as well, Kirk Cousins is playing at a very high level so far. He’s throwing for over 300 yards/game, has eight touchdowns and no interceptions. It certainly looks as if he’s getting Dalvin Cook back this week. Cook missed the team’s 30-17 win over Seattle in Week 3. Minnesota is 1-2, but four points away from being 3-0 and the offense has produced over 400 total yards in every game. The dominant performance we saw from Cleveland’s defense last week should be immediately tossed aside as they were facing a rookie QB making his first start behind a terrible offensive line. The Browns allowed an average of 27 points in its first two games. The Over is 8-2 the Vikings past 10 home games. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
10-02-21 | Brewers v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -125 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The Dodgers beat the Brewers 8-6 last night, but the mood at Chavez Ravine ended up being somber as Clayton Kershaw exited the game with a forearm injury. His status for the playoffs is said to be “not great.” What a blow that would be for the defending World Series Champs, but they still have an outside shot at earning homefield advantage in the playoffs. They would have to win the final two games and have the Giants lose their last two. The second part of that equation is unlikely, but a team can dream. We’ve got a dream pitching matchup for Saturday as two Cy Young contenders face off. Corbin Burnes has the lowest ERA in the majors and Milwaukee has won his last 12 starts! Burnes has allowed no more than one run in 18 of his 27 starts this year. He is 7-0 on the road where his ERA is 1.64 and his WHIP is 0.77. If there’s anyone who can keep LA’s offense in check, it is Burnes. But on the flip side, Dodgers starter Julio Urias has a 10-0 team start record his last 10 starts! He has the most wins (19) of any starting pitcher in the majors. He’s permitted three runs or less in 25 of 31 starts. This figures to be a very low-scoring game, given the two starting pitchers. Play on UNDER AAA | |||||||
10-02-21 | Baylor +4 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 14-24 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 9* on BAYLOR We’ll have one less undefeated team in the Big 12 after Saturday as 4-0 Baylor meets 4-0 Oklahoma State in Stillwater. Both are off their biggest wins of the season. Baylor upset Iowa State 31-29 in Waco. Oklahoma State beat Kansas State 31-20 here in its conference opener. Baylor has won two Big 12 games as it also went on the road and destroyed Kansas 45-7. OSU is much luckier to be 4-0 on the year as their first three wins were by a total of 13 points. Two of those three wins required comebacks. Baylor has beaten OSU in six of the last nine years but has revenge for an awful 42-3 loss at the end of last year when the game was rescheduled due to COVID-19 and the Bears probably didn’t care. So we will grab the points with what we feel has been the superior outfit to this point. The Cowboys have not scored a single second half point in the last two games. Baylor is on an 11-3-1 ATS run as underdogs. OK State has covered only one of its last five as home favorites. Play on BAYLOR AAA | |||||||
10-02-21 | Louisiana Tech v. NC State OVER 55 | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 26 h 29 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER Louisiana Tech and North Carolina State should be headed for a shootout Saturday night in Raleigh. Louisiana Tech is off its lowest scoring game of the season, a 24-17 win over North Texas. The first three weeks of the season saw them score at least 34 points in every game. They also gave up at least 35 in every game. NC State is off its biggest win in some time as it handed Clemson a second loss in 2021. The Wolfpack were victorious by a 27-21 margin. That was after averaging 45 points in the first two home wins. They’ve won 11 straight at Carter-Finney Stadium vs. Group of 5 teams and are 21-1 under Dave Doeren at home vs. all non-conference teams. This is a bit of a letdown spot but La Tech’s defense is giving up 6.0 yards/play. NC State should have beaten Clemson in regulation last week but the kicker missed three field goals. Look for them to score plenty of touchdowns this week. La Tech was missing its starting QB last week but coach Holtz is hopeful that Austin Kendall will return Saturday. The Bulldogs are 4-0 Over after their last four SU wins. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
10-02-21 | Syracuse v. Florida State -4.5 | Top | 30-33 | Loss | -120 | 24 h 59 m | Show |
This is an 8* on FSU How rare is it that 0-4 Florida State is favored over a Power 5 team with a winning record? This is the first time this situation has presented itself since 1988! Everything has gone wrong so far for the Seminoles as they’ve dropped three one score games. Syracuse is coming off a big upset at home against Liberty. It really does speak volumes that the oddsmakers still think FSU is the better team here. We’re with them and will lay the points. The Orange were a one-win team last season. They are 0-6 SU in ACC road openers. They are 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS at FSU. Besides upsetting Liberty, the other two wins this year were against Albany and Ohio. If FSU can cut down on the turnovers (they have 11 so far) then they can turn things around. Those six home wins over Syracuse have been by an average of 26 points/game. Mike Norvell gets his 1st win of the year by a margin greater than the spread. Play on FSU AAA | |||||||
10-02-21 | Michigan +2.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 38-17 | Win | 100 | 21 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MICHIGAN Much will be made of the fact Michigan did not score in the second half last week against Rutgers. But despite that, and being slightly outgained, the Wolverines still won the game 20-13 and are 4-0. They have not turned the ball over once and lead the nation in rushing. They are simply better than an underachieving Wisconsin team that has only put up 10 and 13 points in losses to Penn State and Notre Dame. We patently disagree with Michigan being underdogs here. They’ve yet to allow more than 14 points in any game. The Wolverines are ranked 14th in the country and Wisconsin has lost seven straight to ranked opponents. The Badgers just don’t take good care of the football. They have nine turnovers in three games, five coming last week. Wisconsin is 2-6 ATS the last eight times it has been favored and is 0-5 ATS its last five conference games. Play on MICHIGAN AAA | |||||||
10-02-21 | Toledo -27 v. UMass | Top | 45-7 | Win | 100 | 20 h 29 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TOLEDO Toledo is 2-2. That’s a slight disappointment as they were double digit favorites in a loss to Colorado State. But the other loss saw them take Notre Dame down to the wire in South Bend. This week, the Rockets travel to face one of the worst teams in the country, UMass. The Minutemen have lost every game by at least 14 points. They have been underdogs of more than 35 points in three of the four games. A home game vs. Eastern Michigan, another MAC team, was the exception. Toledo is better than EMU, who could only win here by 14. The Rockets averaged 6.2 yards per rush last week against Ball State. The only time this Toledo defense has allowed more than 22 points was Notre Dame. Take away a special teams touchdown by Colorado State and the defense has “really” allowed 15 points or less three times. UMass is off a 50 point loss to Coastal Carolina. They scored only three points and it was their 15th straight loss. They are 1-19 SU L20 games and only covered six times. Play on TOLEDO AAA | |||||||
10-01-21 | Iowa v. Maryland UNDER 48.5 | Top | 51-14 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER This should be a good one Friday night in the Big 10. Iowa and Maryland both come in at 4-0. Only the Hawkeyes are ranked and while they are #5 in the country, they survived a scare at home last week vs. Colorado State. It was only a 10-point win, 24-14, over a team they were supposed to beat by 24. They even trailed at the half. But we need not worry about winning by any kind of margin this week. Instead, we will simply trust a Hawkeyes defense that is third in the country in scoring (11.0 PPG allowed). Maryland QB Tagovailoa has put up some nice numbers, but has yet to face a defense as good as the one he’ll face here. When the Terps opened Big 10 play with a game at Illinois, they scored only 20 points. Lost in the talk of how good Iowa’s defense has been is how sound Maryland’s D has been. The Terps are allowing only 14.3 points/game so far. So we’ve got two of the country’s top 10 scoring defenses facing off. Iowa’s offense has scored more than three touchdowns in only one game. Against Power 5 opponents, they’ve averaged just 238 yards/game. All four of their games so far have gone Under. Maryland is 4-0 Under its last four Big 10 games. Play on UNDER AAA | |||||||
10-01-21 | Red Sox v. Nationals +1.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WASH +1.5 (RUN LINE) At the most critical point of the season, Boston is not playing like a team that wants to be a part of the postseason. They just lost two of three to a Baltimore team that has the worst record in the American League. That leaves them tied for the second Wild Card (with Seattle) and a game in front of Toronto. The Red Sox also got swept by the Yankees last weekend at Fenway Park. The final series of the regular season will be in an unfamiliar place, the Nation’s capital, as they take on the Nationals. Given Boston’s sudden inability to score runs, we will take the home team +1.5 on the run line. As far as the schedule is concerned, Washington has a slight edge heading into tonight’s opener as they were off on Thursday. They’re also going to have Jesse Rogers on the hill and he has given up no more than three runs in any of his five starts. He has a 0.84 WHIP at home. Boston goes with Eduardo Rodriguez. They’ve lost three of his last four starts and truthfully he’s not pitched as well as his 18-12 TSR for the year might indicate. The Red Sox have dropped five of their last seven series openers while the Nationals are 9-0 in their L9 interleague home games. Play WASHINGTON +1.5 AAA | |||||||
09-30-21 | Padres v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LA -1.5 (RUN LINE) The Dodgers have had no problems beating up on the Padres lately. They’ve taken the past eight head to head encounters, including an 11-9 thriller last night. It should be no trouble at all winning this game by two or more runs. Six of those previous eight wins against San Diego have been by that margin or greater. Wednesday’s win kept the Dodgers two games back of the Giants in the NL West and still alive in the race for homefield advantage. So they’ve got something to play for. San Diego does not as a terrible second half has left them below .500 for the season, something no one would have imagined at the start of 2021. Injuries to the starting rotation got so bad that the team was forced to go out and sign Vince Velasquez to a minor league deal two weeks ago after he was released by Philadelphia. His three starts for San Diego have all been losses and his ERA is 9.00. It is scary to think what might happen to him here as he faces the highest scoring offense in the majors. The Padres won’t get the chances they did last night. The Dodgers blew a 5-1 lead by committing a couple errors. Tony Gonsolin has only allowed one run in three career starts vs. the Padres and has yet to allow more than three runs in any start this year. Play on LOS ANGELES -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA | |||||||
09-30-21 | Virginia v. Miami-FL -5.5 | Top | 30-28 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI FL Quarterback is a question mark for Miami coming into the ACC opener vs. Virginia. D’Eriq King is still dealing with a shoulder injury that caused him to miss last week’s game vs. Central Connecticut State. However, the combination of Tyler Van Dyke and Jake Garcia led the Hurricanes to 69 points and 739 yards. You’re probably saying “well, look at who they were playing.” Yes, it’s true those numbers came against a FCS team. But Virginia’s defense might not be much better. It gave up nearly 700 yards in a 59-39 loss to North Carolina, then it allowed 473 in a 37-17 loss to Wake Forest last Thursday. This is the third straight year that the Cavaliers are visiting Hard Rock Stadium. The offense put up only 9 and 14 points in a pair of losses the last two seasons. Now they’re going to score more than that here. Their QB Brennan Armstrong has been very good. But not good enough to overcome a terrible defense. Miami is getting back RB Jaylan Knighton from a four-game suspension. Virginia has not been a good road team the last few seasons. If King plays for Miami, just consider that a huge bonus. The Canes will cover the number no matter who is in at quarterback. Play on MIAMI FL AAA | |||||||
09-30-21 | Red Sox v. Orioles +1.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 130 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
This is an 8* on BALTIMORE +1.5 (RUN LINE) Baltimore has lost 13 of the last 15 times they’ve played Boston. But one of the two wins came in the opener of this series, 4-2 on Tuesday. The Red Sox struck back with a 6-0 win last night, which ended a four-game losing streak. The Orioles have been more competitive than usual over the past week, winning three of the last six games. They have been relegated to the role of spoiler in this AL Wild Card race and would like nothing more than to help knock Boston out of the playoffs. The Red Sox aren’t nearly as good on the road where they are just 39-37 and scoring 4.3 runs/game. They allow that same number of runs per game, so we give the O’s a chance to steal another one tonight. At the very least, they’ll keep the game within a run. The Red Sox are 1-5 in Nick Pivetta’s last six starts and he’s pitched better than usual of late. Pivetta has never lost to Baltimore, but his ERA in four starts against them this year is 4.15. Alexander Wells is still looking for his first win after eight starts and the good news is he’s coming off the best one since his season debut. There’s a lot of pressure on Boston right now with two teams within a game of them for that second Wild Card. Might they crack? Play on BALTIMORE +1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA | |||||||
09-29-21 | Marlins v. Mets -165 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -165 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the METS These teams played a doubleheader on Tuesday. The Mets won both games, ending a five-game skid. The Marlins have now lost seven in a row. Both teams shuffled around their rotations for yesterday’s games. For Miami, it didn’t really matter as their offense has been putrid during this losing streak. They’ve managed only 14 runs in the last seven games and five of the runs came in one game. After managing just three runs in 16 innings of baseball yesterday (2nd game went to extras), we don’t see them turning things around at the plate here. It’s not been a good second half for Mets starter Taijuan Walker, but this is a matchup where he pretty clearly should excel. Walker’s numbers at home remain solid. The Mets are also 21-8 as a favorite of -125 to -175 at Citi Field. Visiting teams have averaged only 3.6 runs/game at this park in 2021 and the Marlins offense has struggled all season on the road. Elieser Hernandez isn’t good enough to turn around Miami’s fortunes as he allowed three home runs in his last start and has a 1.81 WHIP in his previous three. Play on NY METS AAA | |||||||
09-29-21 | Yankees v. Blue Jays +108 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 108 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TORONTO The Yankees have to be feeling pretty good about their playoff chances right about now. They won for the seventh straight time last night, holding the Blue Jays to three hits in a 7-2 final. That gives them a two game lead over Boston, three game lead over Seattle and 3.5 game lead over Toronto, who is now really up against it and will face Gerrit Cole tonight. Beating Cole will not be easy. But Jose Berrios, the Blue Jays starter for Wednesday, has already beaten the Yankees once this month. In his only start against them here in 2021, Berrios held New York to two runs. Over his last seven starts, Berrios has a 0.98 WHIP and he’s looking to make tonight his seventh straight quality start. He has a very comparable team start record (16-15) to Cole (16-13) this year. Toronto has a winning record against the Yankees this year (10-7). Five Yankee relievers had to work 6.3 innings last night because of an injury to Jameson Taillon. So that could be an issue when Cole has to leave the game tonight. Toronto needs this game badly and we feel Berrios can outpitch Cole. Play on TORONTO AAA | |||||||
09-29-21 | Nationals v. Rockies OVER 12 | Top | 5-10 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER Here at Coors Field, it’s always expected to be a high-scoring affair. The Rockies average 5.6 runs/game themselves while also giving up an average of 5.1 runs/game. Year in and year out, Rockies’ home games seem to have the highest number of total runs/game scored in the National League, if not all of MLB. They’re right up there again this year. But after struggling to win here over the last week (it didn’t help that they faced the Dodgers and Giants), the Rockies won a low-scoring game over the Nationals last night, 3-1. This was after a 5-4 game, which Washington won, on Monday. We think this afternoon’s game will see a return to normalcy in Coors and even exceed the season average of runs/game scored here. Paolo Espino has started 17 games for the Nationals in 2021. He has a 5.90 ERA the seven times he’s started on the road. For the Rockies, Peter Lambert has started just once this year and he gave up two homers in 3.6 innings. Espino has never started in this park before. Going into yesterday, the Rockies were giving up an average of 6.0 runs/game over the last week. In the final game of the year at Coors, why wouldn’t you expect some fireworks? Washington is 13-2-1 Over L16 during Game 3 of a series. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
09-28-21 | Yankees v. Blue Jays -120 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TORONTO This is going to be a critical game and series between the Yankees and Blue Jays. Along with Boston, we’ve got three AL East teams separated by just two games in the race for the Wild Card. It’s a race the Yankees currently lead after sweeping the Red Sox this past weekend. Toronto is still a game behind Boston for the second Wild Card. They are hoping for a repeat of the last time they faced the Yankees. It was a four-game series at Yankees Stadium earlier this month and the Jays swept, outscoring the Yanks 25-8. Now they get them at home. This is New York’s first trip to Canada since 2019 because of COVID-19. The number of fans allowed at Rogers Centre has been upped to 30,000 (per game) for this series, so expect a strong home field advantage. As much as everyone talks about the Yankees, Toronto has been exceptional over the last month, winning 21 of their last 29 games. They will send out Hyun-Jin Ryu, who is 2-0 with a 1.88 ERA in four starts vs. the Yankees this year. Ryu hasn’t started in 10 days, but we are confident. For New York, Jameson Taillon is also coming off the IL, although his stint was longer than Ryu’s. His last start was against Toronto and the Yankees lost that game 8-0. Though the Yankees may be leading the Wild Card race, it’s the Blue Jays who have a vastly superior run differential. Play on TORONTO AAA | |||||||
09-28-21 | Marlins v. Mets -161 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NY METS (GAME 1) NL East rivals Miami and New York are resigned to “playing out the string” at this point. For the Marlins, they’ve known this fate for some time. They’ve spent the majority of the season in last place and carry a 64-91 record into this series with a five-game losing streak. Over the weekend, they were swept by Sunshine State rival Tampa Bay. The Mets are also on a five-game losing streak. For them, the last two months have been a nightmare as they’ve fallen from first place in the division to 73-82 overall. They were swept over the weekend in Milwaukee. Somebody is going to snap their five-game losing streak in the first game of today’s doubleheader and we believe it will be the Mets. They are at home where their pitching staff allows only 3.6 runs/game and a .220 batting average. Marcus Stroman will start this first game. He has a 2.13 in three career starts against Miami. The Marlins only score 3.8 runs/game on the road. So look for their struggles at the plate to continue. They put up only five runs total in the three games at Tampa Bay. Trevor Rogers has not won a decision for them since June 10th. That was a long time ago. He’s 0-5 in his last 11 starts and has seen a drastic rise in his ERA and WHIP. Play on NY METS (GAME 1) AAA | |||||||
09-27-21 | Nationals v. Rockies -160 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -160 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
This is an 8* on COLORADO Don’t let the fact that the Rockies are 3-10 their last 13 home games fool you. All of those home games were played against three of the top four teams in the National League with nine of them against the Dodgers and Giants. Now they are going to host Washington, a team they took two of three from on the road last week. The Rockies are 46-32 at Coors Field this year. Factor out games vs. the Dodgers and Giants and that record improves to 41-18. The Nationals are not a threat. They are in last place in the NL East after losing three of four to the Reds over the weekend. Their record after a loss is 34-57 and they are just 29-49 on the road. German Marquez will start Monday’s game for Colorado. He’s one of the few to have mastered the usually unfavorable conditions at Coors. He has a 14-3 team start record at home for the 2021 season. It helps that the Rockies’ offense puts up an average of 5.6 runs/game at home as well. But Marquez has good numbers here, including a 3.49 ERA. Josiah Gray does not have good numbers for Washington as he’s allowed five or more runs in four of his last five starts. Play on COLORADO AAA | |||||||
09-27-21 | Eagles v. Cowboys OVER 51.5 | Top | 21-41 | Win | 100 | 35 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER Both the Eagles and Cowboys are 1-1. Philadelphia won its first game but lost the second. It’s been just the opposite for Dallas. An Eagles defense that has yet to force a turnover will struggle to stop a high-powered Cowboys offense Monday night. Dallas averaged 6.4 yards per rush and 8.8 yards per pass against the Chargers last week. It was a little stunning that they only had 20 points and needed a 56-yard field goal on the final play to win. Through the first two weeks, the Cowboys are averaging 435 yards/game and converting over 55 percent of their third down opportunities. They have 35 plays of 10 or more yards. It was already going to be a tough task for Philly to slow down their opponents in this game. With DE Brandon Graham suffering a season-ending ACL injury last week, the task is now that much harder. So that’s one half of this equation. After scoring 32 in the season opener, the Eagles were held to 11 last week by the 49ers. But they had a blocked field goal and a 94-yard drive ended with no points. Dallas doesn’t have a good defense. They’ve allowed over 400 yards to both of their 2021 opponents. The Over is 8-2 in the Cowboys' last 10 home games. The Eagles are on a 15-6 run to the Over after a game where they were held under 15 points. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
09-27-21 | White Sox -148 v. Tigers | Top | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CHICAGO Detroit has beaten Chicago four straight times going back to early July. That doesn’t make a whole lot of sense when you look at the two teams’ respective records for the season. The Tigers are 75-80 and seem headed for what would be a sixth straight losing season. The White Sox are 88-68 and clinched the AL Central on Thursday. Before losing the last four games to the Tigers, Chicago was 9-2 against them this year. Coming off a 5-2 win in Cleveland on Sunday, we expect the White Sox to gain a measure of revenge in this make-up game. The Tigers lost two of three to Kansas City over the weekend and will be without one of their hottest hitters, Victor Reyes, on Monday. That makes the job easier for Chicago’s Dallas Keuchel, who is getting the start this afternoon. Keuchel has given up just two runs each of his last two starts. Matt Manning will start for the Tigers. He has a 5.87 ERA in two starts vs. the White Sox. Despite pitching better recently, Manning has a higher ERA and WHIP compared to Keuchel this year. The White Sox are definitely the superior team and we can’t see them losing again to Detroit. Play on CHICAGO AAA | |||||||
09-26-21 | Packers +3 v. 49ers | Top | 30-28 | Win | 101 | 46 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 9* on GB Things were looking pretty dicey for Green Bay Monday night. They’d been blown out 38-3 by New Orleans in the opener, then trailed at the half to Detroit at home. But Aaron Rodgers, as he’s wont to do, took over in the second half and made the skepticism look foolish. The Packers now get a favorable matchup against a banged-up 49ers team Sunday night. Green Bay has covered four of the last five times after playing on Monday Night Football. As a road underdog, Rodgers is on a 5-2 ATS run. San Francisco is 2-0 with road wins over Detroit and Philadelphia. Neither of those opponents are expected to be any good, so they should be 2-0. The problem is the last two times the Niners have played at home following back to back road games on the East Coast, they have lost outright. All five times they were favored at home last year, they failed to cover. But the biggest problem - even more than facing Rodgers - are the injuries. Running back is perilously thin with the only two available ball carries combining for just two carries for -1 yard this year. Missing CB Verrett seems problematic going against Rodgers. San Fran was outgained last week despite beating Philly 17-11. Green Bay’s defense held Detroit to zero points in the second half Monday night. The 49ers’ defense gave up more than 400 yards to the Lions. Grab the points. Play on GREEN BAY AAA | |||||||
09-26-21 | Seahawks -1 v. Vikings | Top | 17-30 | Loss | -123 | 42 h 25 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SEATTLE Seattle is 1-1 after letting one slip away in the fourth quarter last week. They blew a 14-point lead to Tennessee and lost 33-30 in overtime. As crushing a defeat as that was for the Seahawks, it’s nothing compared to what the Vikings have experienced the first two weeks of the season. Mike Zimmer’s team is 0-2 with the losses coming by a total of four points. Both games came down to a field goal attempt on the final play. In Week 1, Dalvin Cook’s fumble led to a game-winner for Cincinnati in overtime. In Week 2, the Vikings’ kicker missed what would have been the game winner and it was a 34-33 loss to Arizona. Minnesota is now just 1-8 ATS its last nine games and had the second worst cover percentage in the league the last two seasons. Russell Wilson should carve up their porous secondary, throwing to Tyler Lockett, who is second in the league in receiving yards and touchdowns. The Seahawks are 7-0 vs. the Vikings with Wilson at QB including wins each of the last three seasons. Play on SEATTLE AAA | |||||||
09-26-21 | Blue Jays -190 v. Twins | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TOR Toronto finally got back in the win column Saturday, beating Minnesota 6-1. It was a game the Blue Jays “had” to have. With the Yankees beating the Red Sox again, Toronto is now two games behind both teams for the Wild Card. A win Sunday would get the Blue Jays within one game of tonight’s Yankees-Red Sox loser. We like Toronto to handle its business as they send Alek Manoah to the mound. The team has won the last six games Manoah has started. He’s allowed no more than three runs in 13 of his last 16 starts. The previous two, both against Tampa Bay, saw Manoah pitch very effectively. He gave up just two runs on six hits over 14 innings. The Twins are not playoff contenders and their starter Griffin Jax has a poor 6.52 ERA this season. Jax has given up 14 home runs in his previous nine starts. He’s allowed at least one HR in all nine. That would seem to be a problem as Toronto hit three homers yesterday to increase its MLB-leading total to 246. The Blue Jays really are an excellent team that deserves to make the postseason. They have a 39-18 record in day games. Play on TORONTO AAA | |||||||
09-26-21 | Falcons +3 v. Giants | Top | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 39 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ATLANTA Here are two 0-2 teams that haven’t played particularly well. But the Giants tend to fall into a predictable pattern. They cover the spread when on the road, they fail to cover when at home. Last Thursday they improved to 17-5 ATS as road dogs, covering the number at Washington in a 30-29 loss. But this week they’re back home. The G-men are just 5-12 ATS in East Rutherford the last two seasons. They didn’t cover in the home opener, losing to Denver 27-13 as three-point dogs. This week they are laying points for the first time in 2021. We like the opportunity to take points against one of the worst teams in the league. This is the fifth consecutive season that New York has opened 0-2. Atlanta has struggled, but also played better than the score showed last week vs. Tampa Bay. Matt Ryan had two interceptions returned for touchdowns in the fourth quarter, resulting in a misleading 48-25. The Falcons, believe it or not, outgained the Bucs. Ryan, with his quick release, should not be bothered by an anemic Giants’ pass rush which far too often fails to get home. Saquon Barkley is pretty clearly not fully recovered from his ACL injury. Play on ATLANTA AAA | |||||||
09-26-21 | Cardinals v. Jaguars OVER 51.5 | Top | 31-19 | Loss | -102 | 39 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 8* on OVER Arizona is humming so far at 2-0. The offense has scored 72 points in two games. We had them in Week 1 when they went to Tennessee and whipped the Titans 38-13 as a 2.5 point underdog. Last week saw the Cardinals survive a missed Vikings FG attempt on the final play to win 34-33. They’ve scored a lot of points so far, but Arizona is still the only team in the league that hasn’t gone Over the total in a single road game the last two seasons. The Under is 8-0-1 in their last nine road games. But considering the state of the offense, we think we can count on them to put lots of points on the scoreboard this Sunday. Kyler Murray threw for over 400 yards against the Vikings. Jacksonville is not humming along right now as it’s an 0-2 start under Urban Meyer. The only thing the Jaguars are leading the league in right now is turnovers with five. They were beaten at home by Houston in Week 1, 37-21, which was a total embarrassment. The offense couldn’t do much (less than 200 yards) in last week’s 23-13 loss to Denver. Meyer and Trevor Lawrence desperately need a good performance in their second home game. The franchise’s losing streak is now at 17 straight. Arizona’s defense isn’t good so the Jags probably will score a season-high in points Sunday. But the problem is the Cardinals will score a lot too. Murray is going to be facing a banged up secondary. That Under streak on the road ends this week. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
09-26-21 | Bengals v. Steelers UNDER 43 | Top | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 39 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 9* on the UNDER Not expecting a lot of points from this AFC North matchup. Bengals’ games have averaged 44 points so far. That’s how many points they’ve scored and allowed in two weeks. The Steelers have scored 40 and given up 42 for an average of 41 points/game. Ben Roethlisberger, whose best days are behind him, enters Week 3 banged up. The Steelers’ offensive line has played poorly thus far and will be challenged against this Cincinnati pass rush led by Trey Hendrickson. The poor offensive line play has also resulted in Pittsburgh averaging only 3.2 yards per carry in the run game. The good news for Pittsburgh is that the Bengals also have a poor offensive line. Joe Burrow has already been sacked nine times. We saw what the Steelers pass rush did to Josh Allen in Week 1. Now they weren’t as effective in a 26-17 loss to Las Vegas last week. TJ Watt got hurt and is questionable for this week. A couple other defensive players have already been ruled out. Despite those absences, Pittsburgh’s defense will still be fine. We can't see the Bengals putting up a ton of points in this game. In a 20-17 loss to Chicago last week, they only gained 248 yards. But the defense only allowed 208. Taking the Under is an easy call here. AAA | |||||||
09-25-21 | Colorado +14.5 v. Arizona State | Top | 13-35 | Loss | -120 | 47 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* on COLORADO Both Colorado and Arizona State are off losses. Colorado has lost its last two games and scored just seven points in doing so. But ASU is 0-3 ATS and one of the most penalized teams in the country, a bad combination when asked to lay double digits in a conference game. This spread should definitely be closer to one touchdown, not two. Herm Edwards’ Sun Devils started 2021 with Top 25 aspirations but those went out the window with last week’s poor showing against BYU. You would have thought BYU was in a bad situation as they were coming off an upset over rival Utah. But four ASU turnovers paved the way for the Cougars to make it two straight upsets over the Pac 12. Colorado’s offensive numbers from last week are going to scare a lot of bettors away but you’ve got to remember this team was very close to defeating Texas A&M two weeks ago. ASU is just 3-10 ATS as a favorite and 2-7 ATS at home since the start of 2019. Things can get pretty crazy “after dark” in the Pac 12. Why not here? Play on COLORADO AAA | |||||||
09-25-21 | Giants -139 v. Rockies | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SF San Francisco beat Colorado 7-2 last night, becoming the first team to 100 wins this season. The Giants are 16-4 in their L20 games but cannot afford to let up now as their division lead over the Dodgers is still just one game. Playing Colorado helps the cause. The Giants are 13-4 vs. the Rockies this year and have won the previous five meetings. The Rockies are a “tougher out” at home, but have now dropped four of five overall. DeSclafani will pitch for the Giants today. He is looking for a third straight quality start and eighth straight start with three runs or less allowed. DeSclafani has started four times against Colorado this year. The Giants are 4-0 in those games with DeSclafani giving up just five runs in 24.3 innings. The Rockies’ Jon Gray hasn’t been as fortunate when facing the Giants. He has a 1-2 TSR against them this year, one of the losses coming against DeSclafani earlier this year. The Rockies’ home field edge is dissipating as they’ve lost seven of their last eight games at Coors Field. The Giants have the most road wins in MLB (51). Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA | |||||||
09-25-21 | Nebraska +5 v. Michigan State | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 43 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 9* on NEBRASKA So Michigan State is 3-0, which is something that no one outside of East Lansing expected. Twice so far Sparty has gone off as the underdog. They won at Northwestern in the season opener and then at Miami FL last week. Not to diminish what Mel Tucker is accomplishing here but Northwestern isn’t very good and Miami shot itself in the foot with two fourth quarter turnovers that turned a close 17-14 game into a 38-17 blowout. Sparty finished +4 in turnovers, which was the difference in a game where the number of total yards gained by the two teams was essentially even. The public now seems to have fallen in love with MSU as they are laying a short number at home to two-loss Nebraska. But the Cornhuskers should have beaten Illinois in the opener and then fared much better than expected last week against Oklahoma. They only lost 23-16 despite being 22.5 point underdogs to the #4 ranked team in the country. Since the opening week loss, QB Martinez has turned it over only one time and that was an incredible interception by Oklahoma’s D.J. Graham last week inside the 10-yard line. Had it not been for that play and a blocked XP that was returned for two points, the Cornhuskers could have beaten the Sooners. Nebraska has covered five of the last six times it has been off a loss and they are 8-1 ATS the L9 games vs. Michigan State. This will be the first time this year the Spartans are favored to beat an FBS opponent. They are 1-12 ATS in their last 13 games as a home favorite. Grab the points. Play on NEBRASKA AAA | |||||||
09-25-21 | Kansas State +6 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 20-31 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 9* on KANSAS STATE Oklahoma State is 3-0 but has outscored opponents by only 13 points. They held on to beat Missouri State 23-16, barely escaped Tulsa and then won by one point at Boise State. The 28-23 win against Tulsa required three fourth quarter touchdowns. Boise State was another fourth quarter comeback as the Cowboys scored two touchdowns in the final 2:10 to win 21-20. Given all those close calls, we will gladly grab the points with Kansas State this week. The Wildcats are also 3-0 and now find themselves in the Top 25. They’ve beaten Stanford 24-7, Southern Illinois 31-23 and Nevada 38-17. Along the way they did lose QB Skylar Thompson to injury. But what’s key to winning this game is the Wildcats’ ability to stop the run. Their defense is giving up just 1.9 yards per rush attempt. OSU likes to run the ball, but probably won’t be too successful this week. Kansas State is 13-4 ATS in this rivalry going back to 1998. They’ve also done a great job covering the spread as underdogs. They are on a 44-22-1 ATS run when taking points. Oklahoma State has not covered any of the last four times it’s been favored in Stillwater. Grab those points. Play on KANSAS STATE AAA | |||||||
09-25-21 | Colorado State v. Iowa -23 | Top | 14-24 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* on IOWA Iowa is looking very good this season. They’ve climbed up to #5 in the polls, its highest ranking in nearly six years. Kirk Ferentz’s defense has led the way by giving up only 30 points total in three games. Keep in mind they’ve already beaten two ranked P5 teams, Indiana and Iowa State, and did so convincingly. Here’s something else to consider - the Hawkeyes’ defense has scored the same number of touchdowns that it has allowed this season. That would be three. They also registered a safety last week against Kent State, which allowed them to cover the spread for the third consecutive game. This week they host a Colorado State team that’s 1-2 and averaging only 22 points despite facing Toledo, Vanderbilt and South Dakota State. After losing their first two games, both as favorites, the Rams beat Toledo 22-6 despite never scoring an offensive TD. They will struggle mightily on offense in this game. Perhaps we all should have seen Iowa coming now that they’ve won nine straight games overall and 14 straight non-conference games. The offense may not be as good as the defense but has gone over 24 points every time during the nine-game run. The defense hasn’t allowed more than 24 points in a game since 2018. Including last week, Iowa has covered three of the last four times it has been a favorite of 20 or more. Colorado State has never faced them before and will likely still wish that was the case after Saturday. The home team can name the score here. Play on IOWA AAA | |||||||
09-25-21 | Texas Tech v. Texas -7.5 | Top | 35-70 | Win | 100 | 36 h 16 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TEXAS Most of the recent Texas-Texas Tech clashes have come down to the wire. We don’t think this one will. Even with all the close calls, like last year’s somewhat miraculous 63-56 win in overtime, the Longhorns have managed to still take 15 of the last 18 meetings from the Red Raiders. They’ve also won four straight Big 12 openers. This is the first conference game of 2021 for both teams. Texas Tech is the one that comes in unbeaten as they are 3-0 for the first time since 2017. But that’s what you’d expect them to be given who they’ve played (Houston, Stephen F Austin and FIU). The Red Raiders run defense has been stout against the inferior competition, but here you’ve got a Texas team that just ran the ball for over 400 yards last week against Rice. That was a much needed effort after the ‘Horns were corralled by Arkansas two weeks ago. But it turns out that Arkansas is pretty good. Losing to them 40-21 put a dent in Texas’ reputation but we still think they have a Top 25 team in Austin. The Longhorns allowed only 284 total yards in the 58-0 win over Rice last Saturday. Texas Tech has not won a true road game since 2019 and is just 1-9 SU in them under Matt Wells. This should be a double digit spread. Play on TEXAS AAA | |||||||
09-24-21 | Liberty v. Syracuse UNDER 54 | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 21 h 41 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER This is a game where the points are tempting. Before losing 38-21 to Liberty last year, Syracuse had won and covered five straight times vs. Group of 5 foes at the Carrier Dome. This season began with a 29-9 home win over Ohio. Dino Babers has not had much success here, going just 26-37 in six-plus seasons and 10 of those wins were in 2018. The Orange dropped to 1-10 in 2020 but have already surpassed last year’s win total with victories over Ohio and Albany. The improvement has mostly come from the defensive side of the ball, which is allowing averages of just 16.7 points and 225.3 yards/game while ranking 24th in EPA. But you can’t look past them only scoring 7 points in the loss to Rutgers. Liberty is a good team and has a good defense as well. The Flames have held each of their first three opponents to 17 points or less. But in their only road game, the offense scored only 21 against Troy. Liberty probably escapes with a win, but it’s going to be a low-scoring affair. Play on UNDER AAA | |||||||
09-24-21 | Rangers v. Orioles OVER 9 | Top | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER These two last place teams are just looking forward to the end of the season. Baltimore is tied with Arizona for the worst record in the majors at 49-104. Texas isn’t too far ahead at 55-98. It was the Orioles striking first in the series with a 3-0 win Thursday. They and the Rangers have matching 74-72-7 O/U records on the year. This game we think will be a more high-scoring affair. It’s hard to trust either Spencer Howard (Texas) or Alexander Wells (Baltimore). The two starters are a combined 0-7 in 19 starts this year and the individual numbers are pretty ugly for both. Howard’s numbers include a 6.50 ERA and 1.47 WHIP having also spent time with the Phillies. Wells is even worse with a 8.65 ERA and 1.77 WHIP. Both guys have ERAs over 8.00 in their last three starts. None of Howard’s previous five starts have lasted longer than five innings, Wells has allowed five runs each of his previous two starts. The Rangers give up an average of 5.4 runs/game on the road. Baltimore allows 6.5 at home! Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
09-24-21 | Middle Tennessee State +3 v. Charlotte | Top | 39-42 | Push | 0 | 31 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIDDLE TENNESSEE Middle Tennessee is 1-2 with both losses coming on the road to FBS opponents. They opened 2021 by defeating Monmouth, an FCS school, 50-15 as 8.5 point favorites. But then came losses at Virginia Tech and UTSA, neither of which saw the Blue Raiders cover. Now those are two good teams they faced. Both are much better than the team they face this week. Charlotte started 2-0 but then lost last week at Georgia State. The 49ers could only score nine points, making you wonder what they did to deserve to be favored this week. They did upset Duke in the very first game, 31-28 as a 6.5 point pup. But they did give up 580 yards in that win. The other win for Charlotte came against Gardner-Webb, another FCS team. While this is the first time since 2009 that Middle Tennessee has had to play three straight games on the road, we predicted them to finish ahead of Charlotte in the Conference USA East Division. Therefore, an opportunity to take points is something we don’t dare pass up. These schools did not face off last season because of COVID. But MTSU has won four of the last five meetings. Play on MIDDLE TENNESSEE AAA | |||||||
09-23-21 | Astros v. Angels UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Like you probably expected, the Astros have won the first three games of the series. They scored 10 runs in each of the first two games. They scored 9 yesterday, but this time it took them 12 innings to do so. They scored four in the top of the 12th to get the win and will now go for the sweep. We expect this one to be a lot lower scoring than the first three games. That’s mainly because of the two starting pitchers. Houston’s Lance McCullers is 4th in the AL in wins and 10th in strikeouts. The last four starts from McCullers have seen him never give up more than two runs. He has a 2.50 ERA this month. The Angels’ Alex Cobb is also having a good year. He’s allowed a total of just three earned runs his last five starts. He threw five shutout innings in Chicago last week, his first start back after a long injury absence. Play on UNDER AAA | |||||||
09-23-21 | Panthers v. Texans UNDER 43.5 | Top | 24-9 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER We’ve got a backup QB starting for Houston and he’s a rookie no less. If that’s not bad enough, the rookie in question (Davis Mills) will be facing the defense that has given up the fewest yards in the league through two weeks. And it’s a short week for Mills. So you can pretty much write off the notion of the Texans scoring many points on Thursday Night Football. After Mills replaced injured starter Tyrod Taylor last week, the offense managed just one touchdown against what is a pretty porous Cleveland defense. The Panthers are only putting up 22.5 points/game and enter this one knowing it won’t take much scoring to get to 3-0 on the season. Look for them to play it pretty conservative on offense as Sam Darnold still can’t be trusted to air it out. They will instead look to run a lot with Christian McCaffery. He’s had 59 touches in two games. Back to the defense, Carolina has yet to give up any points in the first half. The Under is 5-0 in their last five regular season games. Tonight has all the makings of a low-scoring affair. Play on UNDER AAA | |||||||
09-23-21 | Marshall v. Appalachian State OVER 59 | Top | 30-31 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Marshall and Appalachian State played each other last season. Marshall pulled the outright upset on their way to a 7-0 start. It was a very low-scoring game, 17-7, as most Thundering Herd games were in 2020. It was a team with one of the best defenses in the country but a fairly inept offense. The inept offense ended up getting Doc Holliday fired when the Herd lost their last three games while averaging 7.7 points. Under Charles Huff, the offense has been reborn this year as it is averaging 43.7 points and 603 yards per game. The defense just gave up 42 though in a loss to East Carolina last week. Appalachian State can also score as they are putting up 33.3 points/game through three weeks. So this has all the makings of a high-scoring affair. The O/U line for last year’s game was pretty comparable to what we’ve got here. Obviously, the teams couldn’t come close to the number last year. But this year Marshall’s offense is much better and the defense isn’t as good. Appalachian State has welcomed its best receiver (Chase Sutton) back after he sat out the 2020 season. So their offense is better this year as well. We should also bring up how Marshall’s QB Grant Wells is coming off the two best passing days of his career. Both defenses ranked in the Top 15 last year in yards/play allowed. Now they are both outside the Top 40. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
09-23-21 | Mariners v. A's -145 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -145 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OAKLAND Oakland (82-70) is now behind Seattle (83-69) in the Wild Card race after losing the first three games of this series. It’s now eight straight losses to the Mariners going back to late July. But, in a must win spot Thursday, we like the A’s to bounce back. They welcome back Chris Bassitt, the team leader in wins, to the mound this afternoon. Bassitt was leading the entire American League in wins when he took a line drive off his face last month. Five weeks later he’s back and we’ve got reason to believe he’ll pitch well here. Seattle doesn’t hit well, even though they’ve been winning in this series. Bassitt wasn’t just leading the American League in wins at the time of his injury, he was also first in innings pitched and starts. So he’d been the real workhorse of this staff. The A’s are below .500 since losing him. But he’s back now. Seattle’s Yusei Kikuchi has not won since August 3rd, which was nine starts ago. His last three starts have been exceptionally poor with 10 runs allowed in just 9.6 innings. Can’t see the A’s being swept in a four-game series at home. Despite their winning record, the Mariners have been outscored by 54 runs in 2021. Play on OAKLAND AAA | |||||||
09-22-21 | Cardinals v. Brewers -116 | Top | 10-2 | Loss | -116 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE The St. Louis Cardinals have won 10 straight games, putting them in position to make the playoffs as the NL’s second Wild Card. The race for this second Wild Card spot has been wide open all year long as it seems no team “wants it.” (Given that whomever gets the spot must face either the Dodgers or Giants on the road, it’s likely to be a “one and done” postseason venture). But the Cardinals are clearly the hot team right now. But looking at their season as a whole, the Redbirds haven’t really been all that impressive. Coming to Milwaukee and taking the first two games from the division-leading Brewers is impressive, but we see the win streak coming to an end tonight. Now with a four-game lead over the rest of the Wild Card chasers, we could see the Cards start to “let up” in the coming days. The Brewers are a great team, one that has allowed fewer runs than all teams besides the Giants and Dodgers. Today’s pitching matchup of Miles Mikolas vs. Brett Anderson seems like a wash on paper. But Mikolas has only started twice on the road this year and his ERA is 8.59. His WHIP is 2.05. Milwaukee has already clinched a playoff spot and would like to wrap the division up as soon as possible. If they win the next two games, then the pennant is theirs. We really like the fact that the Brewers are 38-18 after losing the first two games of a series. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA | |||||||
09-21-21 | Pirates v. Reds -1.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CIN -1.5 (RUN LINE) The Reds are 11-3 against the Pirates this year. They beat them 9-5 on Monday. So we’ve got no hesitation about playing the run line today as the home team should once again easily win by two or more runs. Pittsburgh, as you know, is one of the worst teams. They actually did lead 5-0 early on yesterday, but from there it was all Reds, who scored the game’s final nine runs. There was an 85-minute rain delay, so maybe that’s why Cincinnati started slow out of the gate. What we do know is that Pittsburgh probably won’t score five runs again tonight. They have the lowest run total of any team. They put up only 3.4 per game on the road where they are now 22-53. Tyler Mahle, who is tied with Wade Miley for the team lead in wins on the Reds’ staff, is 3-0 vs. the Pirates this year with a 1.47 ERA. Making today’s starting pitching matchup even less favorable for the visitors is that Mitch Keller is 0-3 with a 7.86 ERA in six career starts vs. Cincinnati. The previous series that these teams played saw all four games decided by one run. So the odds of that happening again are pretty small. The Reds are three games behind a Cardinals team that has won nine straight for the second Wild Card. They need to rack up wins. Play on CINCINNATI -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA | |||||||
09-21-21 | White Sox -150 v. Tigers | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -150 | 4 h 57 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CWS The White Sox lost 4-3 to the Tigers last night after blowing a three-run lead. But they did see their magic number to clinch the AL Central drop to two as Cleveland was swept in a doubleheader. It is possible for Chicago to win the division on Tuesday, but that will first require them handling their business this afternoon. (Would then need an Indians loss as well). Last night saw Chicago strike first with three runs in the third inning. But Detroit immediately answered with three runs of their own in the bottom half of the inning. The game was decided in the eighth when Harold Castro’s two-out single scored Robbie Grossman, who had been hit by a pitch and stole second. The start time for today’s game was moved up due to the threat of rain tonight in Detroit. We believe the quick turnaround benefits the road team as they should be eager to take the field and atone for last night’s defeat. The White Sox are 43-23 off a loss this year. They’re hoping for Dallas Keuchel to deliver a start similar to the one he gave his last time on the mound. Though he did not get the win, Keuchel allowed just two runs in six innings. Detroit has won its last three games against Chicago and the last three overall. But they are batting just .174 over the last week and Tyler Alexander has made it through six innings only one time in 12 starts. The Tigers’ bullpen has a 4.53 ERA, so yesterday was a much better showing than usual from them. Play on CHICAGO AAA | |||||||
09-20-21 | Lions +11.5 v. Packers | Top | 17-35 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DET Even against the Lions, this is too many points for the Packers to lay in a battle of 0-1 NFC North teams. Did you see how awful the Pack looked in Week 1? They got thumped 38-3 by a Saints team that just got blown out by Carolina yesterday. The game wasn’t even in New Orleans as it got moved to Jacksonville due to Hurricane Ida. It got so ugly that Aaron Rodgers was pulled from the game. The Packers ran only 15 times for 43 yards, so there wasn’t much help for the reigning MVP. The defense allowed Jameis Winston to throw five touchdown passes. Compare that to yesterday when the Saints gained just 128 yards and didn’t score until the fourth quarter. Detroit at least covered the spread in their season opener. That was thanks to a late rally against San Francisco. The offense did gain 430 yards and if it can come anywhere close to that tonight, then they will again cover the spread. The Lions have covered six of the last seven times they’ve faced the Packers and three of the last four times they’ve lost to them, the game was decided by no more than seven points. With it still being early in the season, Detroit is going to play hard for its first year coach Dan Campbell. How can you lay double digits with Green Bay after last week’s performance? Play on DETROIT AAA | |||||||
09-20-21 | Blue Jays -124 v. Rays | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -124 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TOR Toronto (84-65) continues its quest to lock down a playoff berth with a visit to Tampa Bay (92-58) to start the week. This is the same Rays team that the Blue Jays took two of three from last week. That was at home, however the Jays have a pretty good road record as well (41-33). They’ve outscored teams by 1.3 runs/game on the road and that does not include the “home” games in Dunedin, FL or Buffalo, NY when they were not allowed to cross the border because to COVID-19. So technically, no team has won more games outside of their actual home park than Toronto. They are also 15-3 in September. While they won’t be able to catch the Rays for first place in the division, the Blue Jays have moved into the second Wild Card. They are two back of Boston in the win column. Passing the Red Sox would mean the Wild Card Game would take place in Toronto. The Blue Jays have to keep winning as the Yankees are just 1.5 games behind them and Oakland is two back. Tampa Bay is just 8-10 this month as they’ve hit a bit of a malaise. Sandwiched around the series loss to Toronto last week were two series against the Tigers and they lost four of the seven games to them, a below .500 team. Having top pitching prospect Shane Baz make his big league debut is cause for excitement, but this is a tough spot for Baz starting against Robbie Ray, who is looking to win the AL Cy Young. Ray has a 1.85 ERA in five previous starts vs. Tampa this year. The last time he lost was July 21st. In his last seven starts, Ray has a 1.91 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. Play on TORONTO AAA | |||||||
09-20-21 | Orioles v. Phillies UNDER 8 | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER Two ballclubs in vastly different positions start an Interleague series on Monday. The Orioles (47-102) have the worst record in the majors and are simply waiting for the season to end. The Phillies (76-73) are trying to track down a playoff spot, whether it be the Wild Card or winning the NL East. As easy a matchup as it looks to be on paper for the home team, this could be a little tricky for Philadelphia. They lost by one to the Mets Sunday night as they could only put up two runs. John Means is Baltimore’s only good starter and he will be on the mound Monday. Means has seen all of his last five starts go Under the total. The most runs allowed by the left-hander in any of the five starts was three. But the Orioles are also 0-8 in Means’ last eight starts for a reason - they can’t score. In Means’ last six starts, they scored just 10 runs and were shut out on two different occasions. A team that scores only 3.7 runs/game now loses the designated hitter from the lineup. So the Phillies aren’t going to give up many runs with Ranger Suarez set to start this game. Suarez has a 1.85 ERA in his previous nine starts. That’s very good. The Orioles have won just one of their last nine games and it was a 3-2 win against the Yankees. The Phillies likely take this one, but the best bet is to take the Under, which has hit six of the last eight times they’ve been off a loss. Play on UNDER AAA | |||||||
09-19-21 | Chiefs -3.5 v. Ravens | Top | 35-36 | Loss | -107 | 46 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on KC Kansas City came from behind to defeat Cleveland 32-29 in Week 1. Baltimore blew a lead and lost 33-27 in Las Vegas. This is a short week for the Ravens as that game in LV was Monday night. They were seven seconds away from winning in regulation but that was ripped away from them. Then came a wild overtime that left them deflated. Few teams have already endured the amount of injuries the Ravens have. Already eight players have landed on the IR. Facing Patrick Mahomes is never easy when fully healthy. Baltimore is anything but right now. Lamar Jackson has never beaten Mahomes before. The Ravens defense looks questionable right now. Are they really going to fix their defensive issues on a short week against the MVP? We say “no.” Mahomes and the Chiefs offense have averaged 31.3 points in three previous wins over the Ravens. Jackson has a sub-55 percent completion rate in his three games vs. the Chiefs. Andy Reid has won 70% of the time in his coaching career when having the rest advantage. Mahomes is 16-8-1 ATS on the road his career. Love the idea of getting to lay such a short number with the best team in the AFC. Play on KANSAS CITY AAA | |||||||
09-19-21 | Titans v. Seahawks -6.5 | Top | 33-30 | Loss | -105 | 42 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SEATTLE Two weeks in a row we’re going against Tennessee. It worked pretty well last week, didn’t it? The Titans got blitzed out of the box, were down 17-0 before they knew it and ended up losing 38-13 at home to the Arizona Cardinals. We didn’t even need those points we took with the Cards. Now it’s the Titans who are underdogs. We just don’t see them staying with the Seahawks in Seattle. So much of what we wrote about Tennessee last week rang true. The offense just isn’t going to be able to match last season’s numbers even with WR Julio Jones in the fold. There’s a lot of tread on the tires of Derrick Henry and he was held to 58 yards on 17 carries by the Cardinals. It just so happens that Seattle’s defense just held Indianapolis RB Jonathan Taylor to almost identical numbers - 56 yards on 17 carries. The Titans’ offensive line gave up six sacks to the Cardinals while the Seahawks sacked Carson Wentz constantly in Week 1. But worst of all for the Titans is that their defense looked every bit as bad as it did in 2020. They allowed over 400 yards and it was another game with 30 or more points allowed, something they did eight times last season. The Titans were 29th against the pass and 28th in total yardage in 2020. Wilson will carve them up much the same way he did another AFC South team last week. He threw four touchdown passes in a 28-16 win over Indianapolis. The Seahawks led the game by double digits the entire second half. Everyone knows this is one of the stronger homefield edges in the NFL. Considering what Kyler Murray was able to do to the Titans, Wilson is likely to do the same. Play on SEATTLE AAA |
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