Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-13-21 | Astros -131 v. Twins | Top | 14-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON The Astros and Twins have split the first two games of this series. We like the road team, behind Framber Valdez, to take the rubber match and series. This will be Valdez’s fourth start in 2021. So far he has faced Boston twice and San Diego. He has not allowed more than one run in any of the starts and has gone progressively deeper into games. He went 7 ⅓ last week at Fenway, struck out eight and walked no one. If Valdez can contain two of the highest scoring teams in baseball, surely he can do the same to a Twins team whose season has generally been pretty miserable. Minnesota has won back to back games only one time in June. That was against Kansas City. Since the first series of the year, there’s been only one other time besides KC where the Twins beat the same team on consecutive days. That was a three-game sweep of Baltimore. Pineda has lasted a total of 7 ⅓ innings his last two starts for the Twins. Houston has yet to lose twice in a row this month. Won’t happen here. This is a very attractive price on the better side. Play on HOUSTON AAA | |||||||
06-13-21 | Rockies v. Reds OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER Colorado continues to be an absolute horror show on the road. They are 5-26 away from Coors Field. Yesterday was even worse than usual, which is really saying something, as they lost 10-3 to the Reds. The last three days have seen them outscored 32-12 including 21-8 in the two games in Cincinnati. The Rockies have now hooked up with the Reds six times in 2021 and at least 11 runs have been scored in every game. Four of those were in Coors, but the two here in the Queen City have seen 16 and 13 total runs scored. So you can’t just attribute the scoring to Denver. The Reds have horrible pitching; they’ve allowed more runs than all but two NL teams (Colorado being one of them). Tony Santillan is being called into duty for his first career big league start on Sunday. While it may seem tough to make a projection on him for this game, we know the Over is 21-8-1 for the Reds after a game where they scored five or more runs. They got to 10 yesterday without even hitting a single home run. It was their 10th game this season scoring 10 or more runs. The Reds give up more than six runs per game at home. Senzatela has a 6.75 ERA and 1.90 WHIP on the road for Colorado. This will clearly be a high-scoring affair. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
06-12-21 | Jazz v. Clippers -4.5 | Top | 106-132 | Win | 100 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LA CLIPPERS For the second series in a row, the Clippers find themselves down 0-2. There is a difference this time though. In the first round versus Dallas, those first two losses both came at home. The first two losses of the second round were both in Salt Lake City. So now, instead of having to go on the road to even things up, the Clippers can do so at home. They did lose the first three home games to Dallas, but won Game 7 here in Staples Center by a score of 126-111. We expect Kawhi Leonard to play better tonight than he did in Games 1 and 2 when he averaged just 22 points. Game 2 was a bit of a disaster as LA gave up 66 points in the first half and was down by as many as 21. But they actually rallied to take the lead in the fourth quarter. We certainly don’t see them falling behind that big in Game 3. In fact, they figure to come out quite strong given the series deficit that they are facing. Utah isn’t going to come close to matching its shooting from Game 2 (55.3 FG%). The Jazz were 20 of 39 on three-point attempts in that last game as well. The Clippers were the top three point shooting team in the NBA this year, so look for them to turn the tables Saturday. Utah has not covered any of the last four times they’ve been underdogs. Play on LA CLIPPERS AAA | |||||||
06-12-21 | Cardinals v. Cubs -159 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CHICAGO For a while, it looked like it would be the Cubs and Cardinals competing for NL Central supremacy this year. But now it’s the Brewers that the Cubs are tied with atop the division. They look to take advantage of the slumping Cards again on Saturday with Kyle Hendricks starting the game. St. Louis has just one win in its previous eight games. It was 8-5 Cubs on Friday afternoon as Pederson, Rizzo and Contreras all homered. It was the Cubs third straight win after taking two in San Diego. This is the first series where a full house is allowed at Wrigley Field. "It just felt really energetic," manager David Ross said about yesterday’s game. "The outfield was packed, beautiful day. That was a nice W. ... Clearly, those fans helped us win that game." Hendricks looks to help make it two in a row over the Cardinals and four in a row overall. The last time Hendricks started against St. Louis was 5/21 at Busch Stadium and the Cubs wound up winning 12-3. Hendricks is 5-0 his last five starts, all of them quality. Gant goes for St. Louis and he allowed seven runs his last start. With Gant, the ERA is very misleading as his WHIP is 1.592. Two teams going in opposite directions. Play on CHICAGO CUBS AAA | |||||||
06-12-21 | Padres -124 v. Mets | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -124 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SAN DIEGO With only three wins in the last 12 games, this is the coldest the Padres have been all season. In what is poised to be a very tough three-team battle in the NL West with the Dodgers and Giants, SD is currently in third place. But we’ll look for them to bounce back from last night’s 3-2 loss to the Mets behind the sensational Joe Musgove this afternoon. Musgrove deserves way better than a 6-5 team start record in 2021. He has a 2.67 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. While Musgrove failed to beat the Mets one week ago, that was due to him having to go up against Jacob deGrom, who beat the Padres again last night. In last Saturday’s start, Musgrove had 10 strikeouts in five innings. He did give up three runs, but had allowed two or less in 8 of his first 10 starts this year. The Mets have been tough to beat at home this year (16-5 WL record) and Stroman has been sharp. But Stroman did have a season-high four walks in his last start, which was against San Diego. Look for San Diego to get the job done here behind Musgrove. Play on SAN DIEGO AAA | |||||||
06-12-21 | Russia v. Belgium OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 107 | 238 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* On OVER If you don’t know, Belgium is the #1 ranked team in the world entering Euro 2020. In qualification for this tournament, they ended up with the maximum 30 points. They are unbeaten in their last nine matches and considered the favorite to win Group B. Not all the news is great though as playmaker Kevin De Bruyne is out due to facial fractures sustained in the Champions League Final. But we expect the Red Devils to still score multiple goals in this Euro Cup opener with Russia. This is typically a high-scoring side and they beat Russia twice - 4-1 and 3-1 - during qualification. Those are the only losses sustained by Russia during Euro Cup qualification, however, and we look for them to score a goal in this one. This match is in St. Petersburg and it’s been awhile since the Russians failed to score a goal in a match. There was a 2017 International Friendly between these two sides that ended up 3-3. Expect some fireworks. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
06-11-21 | Royals v. A's -129 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OAKLAND Oakland should bounce back from a surprising 6-1 loss last night. Kansas City came into this series on a five game losing streak. They were swept down in Los Angeles to start the week. The number of runs that the Royals scored yesterday matched what they has scored in the previous four games combined. Very surprising to see the A’s with only three hits in yesterday’s game. They’d come in on a 7-1 run and had scored a minimum of four runs in every one of those eight games. Brady Singer looks like a good pitcher to target for a fade in this one. He has a 7.71 ERA and 1.86 WHIP over the last three starts. This Royals righty has never pitched in the Pacific Time Zone. The team has won only four of his 12 starts this year. Cole Irvin has the same team start record for Oakland, but a lower ERA and WHIP. Irvin also pitched very well in his last trip to the mound. The A’s were winning 1-0 in the seventh last night before a catcher interference call swung the game dramatically. Thursday’s final score was not indicative of the two teams. Oakland leads the West Division with a 37-27 record. KC is under .500. Play on OAKLAND AAA | |||||||
06-11-21 | 76ers v. Hawks OVER 224.5 | Top | 127-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER The Sixers seem to be firing on all cylinders offensively in these playoffs. They are averaging more than 123 points/game and have shot almost 54 percent from the field in the first two games vs. Atlanta. Joel Embiid is averaging 39.5 points/game for the series and is showing no real ill-effects from the cartilage issue that was thought to be a problem last week. Atlanta has no answers for stopping Embiid and they just took another hit at the defensive end with De’Andre Hunter having to undergo season-ending surgery. Hunter was arguably the team’s best individual defender. The good news for the Hawks is that the next two games are at home where they have won 13 straight times. Their season scoring average at home is 115.1 points/game. Trae Young missed six of his seven three-point tries in Game 2. You’ve got to think he’s going to bounce back with a big game tonight. Philadelphia has scored at least 114 points in every playoff game. This may not end up as high scoring as Game 1, but it will be higher scoring than Game 2 and that means OVER. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
06-11-21 | White Sox -155 v. Tigers | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CHICAGO We like the White Sox to roll their division rivals in Friday’s series opener. Chicago is having an excellent season thus far. They are first in the Central with a 38-24 record. They’ve allowed the fewest number of runs in the American League. Coming off a winning series against Toronto, the White Sox now head to Detroit. They just took three of four games from the Tigers last week. We get a better price on them on the road, which is nice. The Tigers have been playing somewhat better of late, but are still only 26-36. They’ve scored the least amount of runs in the AL. So their lineup vs. White Sox pitching is quite the mismatch. Lucas Giolito is who the Tigers will face tonight. They did hit three homers off him last weekend when they picked up their only win of the series. But Giolito has previously allowed exactly one earned run in five of six starts in May. He’s allowed no more than three runs in 9 of 12 starts overall. Skubal has a 3-7 TSR for Detroit and only one quality start. Don’t overthink this one. Take the much better team. Play on CHICAGO AAA | |||||||
06-11-21 | Italy -158 v. Turkey | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 214 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ITALY Italy comes in as the favorite to take Group A and for good reason. They have the home advantage with these matches being played in Rome. They are one of the favorites to win this entire tournament as they are undefeated in their previous 27 matches. It’s an eight-match win streak for the Azzurri which has seen them recently take a couple friendlies against San Marino and the Czech Republic. Under current boss Roberto Manicini, they’ve scored 70 goals and conceded only 14. World Cup qualification is going well with three wins in as many fixtures and they have not lost a WC qualifier on home soil in the last 56 tries. So the home advantage should be a big deal in the group stage of the Euro Cup. Turkey is an improving side and should finish second in Group A, but they are outclassed in this one. Italy believes this is the squad to end its 50-year drought as European champions. Anything less than a win the first time out would be viewed as a major disappointment. Play on ITALY AAA | |||||||
06-10-21 | Avalanche +1.5 v. Golden Knights | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -218 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 6* on COLORADO +1.5 Through the first six games of these playoffs, Colorado looked totally invincible. They were 6-0 with a +20 goal differential (30-10) and widely considered the favorite to win the Stanley Cup. Then the next three games happened. Vegas has beaten them three straight times, including a come from behind effort in Game 5 that went to overtime. Now the Avalanche aren’t the favorites to win the Cup; they are just trying to stay alive. Even though taking the puck line requires laying a lot of juice, we believe it’s worth it. This is only the second three-game losing streak for the Avs in 2020-21. There has never been a four-game losing streak. While we’re not confident enough to “pull the trigger” on the money line, we just don’t see any way that Colorado loses here by more than one goal. Two of the three losses in this series have been by one goal. They beat Vegas 7-1 in Game 1! They very much COULD win. But we just like the idea of them only having to stay tied at the end of regulation. Play on COLORADO +1.5 (PUCK LINE) AAA | |||||||
06-10-21 | Nets v. Bucks OVER 234 | Top | 83-86 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Despite Brooklyn shooting a blistering percentage from the field, the Under is 2-0 in their series with Milwaukee. Credit the blowout nature of the two games for some of that. Game 1 was on pace to go Over through three quarters. But then the fourth happened and only 40 total points were scored. We were still fine with how things played out; we had the Nets and the win was a lot easier than the 115-107 final score would seem to indicate. Game 2 was never close as Brooklyn led by 19 after one quarter, 26 at halftime and won by 39. Milwaukee never scored more than 24 in any quarter and ended up with a season-low 86 points for the game. It was only the fifth time in 2020-21 that they were held below 100. The other four all saw them score at least 96 points. After they went 14 for 57 on three point shots in the first two games, look for that facet of the game to improve by a lot now that the series heads to Brew City. This is a team that shoots almost 49% overall and 40% from three at home. Their season scoring average at the Fiserv Forum is 120.8 points/game. Brooklyn, even without James Harden, is going to keep shooting the ball well. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
06-10-21 | Brewers -116 v. Reds | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE Have to play against Castillo here. The Reds have lost 10 of his 12 starts so far with one of the wins coming last week in St. Louis. That surprisingly strong outing against a slumping Cardinals team should be viewed as the exception rather than the rule, however. Castillo’s ERA (6.63) and WHIP (1.663) both remain very high. He was 0-6 in May. One of those losses was vs. Milwaukee. The Brewers scored five times off Castillo in five innings and went on to take the game 9-4. Freddy Peralta started that game for Milwaukee and will start this one as well. Peralta is having a very different type of season compared to Castillo. The team has won 9 of his 12 starts including four in a row. The last one saw Peralta take a no-hitter into the eighth inning. Opponents are hitting just .133 against Peralta for the year. This is a rubber match with each team having won once in the series. Considering who is on the mound for each team, look for the Brewers to take the series. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA | |||||||
06-09-21 | Nuggets v. Suns UNDER 222.5 | Top | 98-123 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER Game 1 went Over, which is par for the course for these teams as that’s the way the last three meetings have gone as well as six of the last seven here in Phoenix. But we believe Game 2 will go a bit differently. Phoenix shot really well in Game 1, making 54.1 percent of their attempts. Denver wasn’t too far behind at 46.7%. It’ll be difficult for both teams, particularly Phoenix, to match those percentages. As for Denver, they’ve gone Over in all their playoff games but one. But as they found out Monday, they are now playing the Suns and not the Blazers. Portland had the worst defensive efficiency rating of any playoff team. So it was only logical that MVP Jokic and his teammates had their way offensively with them. But in seven playoff games, the Suns are allowing less than 100 points/game. They are only scoring 106.6 per game themselves though. Can they really count on 23 points again from Mikal Bridges? Probably not. Four starters (Bridges, Ayton, Paul & Booker) combined to shoot 33 of 51 (64.7%). No way we see that again. Play on UNDER AAA | |||||||
06-09-21 | Dodgers -165 v. Pirates | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the DODGERS The Dodgers and Pirates opened up a three-game series on Tuesday. As you’d expect, the Dodgers won. They got all five of their runs in the fifth and sixth innings while the Pirates got all three of their runs in the eighth and ninth. The home team should have had one more, but Ke’Bryan Hayes made a baserunning blunder in the first inning when he forgot to touch first base after a home run. So he was called out. While it may not have been the prettiest win for the Dodgers on Tuesday, you can’t deny who the better team is in this particular matchup. We think it’s pretty crazy we can get to play the favorite at this price. Pittsburgh is 2-10 this season as a home underdog of +125 to +175. Maybe the price is due to some uncertainty over Tony Gonsolin, who will be making his 2021 debut for the Dodgers in this one? But we have confidence in Gonsolin starting in this spot. He was 6-4 with a 2.60 ERA in 20 starts last year, his rookie season. The Pirates have the least amount of runs scored in baseball. Starting for them here is Tyler Anderson and he has an 8.22 ERA in his last three starts. Play on LA DODGERS AAA | |||||||
06-09-21 | Yankees -180 v. Twins | Top | 9-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the YANKEES The Yankees won yesterday 8-4. It’s been a rough season for Minnesota. They are last in the Central with a 24-36 record. The Yankees are 32-29, probably a disappointment to some, but they are 18-8 outside the AL East. They play in the deepest division in the American League as everyone but Baltimore is good. But they’ve really beat up on everyone else. The Yankees have played the most division games of anyone in the East. What we’re trying to say here is they are going to win again today. Gerritt Cole is starting. We can’t believe the team is only 6-6 in his 12 starts. Cole’s last start was one of his worst. Not to give him a “pass,” but it did come against Tampa Bay. In one-third of his starts, Cole has not allowed a run. In 10 of the 12, he’s allowed two or less runs. No confidence in Randy Dobnak starting opposite Cole for the Twins. Pay little attention to the ongoing “controversy” surrounding Cole and “illegal substances.” The Yankees are 27-11 all-time at Target Field. Play on NY YANKEES AAA | |||||||
06-09-21 | Bruins -132 v. Islanders | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -132 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BOSTON The Islanders, thanks to two straight high scoring performances, have taken the lead in this series and are one more win away from advancing to the NHL’s version of the “Final Four.” But what you need to understand about the Game 5 result in Boston is that the Bruins had a colossal 44-19 edge in shots. That they lost 5-4 is shocking. Losing while getting 25 or more shots on goal is something that has happened only four times to the Bruins in the playoffs since 1960. It was only the second time NY won a playoff game when getting outshot by that man. The Islanders also got three power play goals in the win. Bruins coach Bruce Cassidy was highly critical of the way the game was called, so that’s something to keep an eye on here in Game 6. Boston has scored first in four of the five games in the series, yet lost three of them. Tuukka Rask is expected to be fine for Game 6 and should play better between the pipes. The Islanders are a good home team, but we like Boston in this one. Play on BOSTON AAA | |||||||
06-08-21 | Clippers +4 v. Jazz | Top | 109-112 | Win | 101 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 8* on LAC The Clippers turned in their highest scoring effort of the first round when they most needed it, winning Game 7 against Dallas 126-111. Most will view this as a disadvantage, having to start a new series basically 48 hours after winning a Game 7. But we like the Clippers as underdogs in Game 1 at Utah. Getting points, LA is 7-4 ATS this season and they’ve taken the game outright six times. We played against Utah in Game 1 of the opening round. That was the only game of the Memphis series they lost. Instead of focusing on how little time the Clippers had off between the two series, maybe we should focus more on how much time the Jazz have had off. They are 2-8 ATS since 2018-19 when having at least three days off between games. They are 0-2 ATS this season in that scenario with Game 1 vs. Memphis being the most recent instance. Mike Conley may be unavailable tonight and that would be a major blow for the home team. The two best players in this series (Leonard, George) will both be wearing road colors tonight. Play on LA CLIPPERS AAA | |||||||
06-08-21 | Clippers v. Jazz UNDER 220.5 | Top | 109-112 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The Clippers turned in their highest scoring effort of the first round when they most needed it, winning Game 7 against Dallas 126-111. But with just one day off, we think it’s going to be extremely difficult to match that against Utah in Game 1 of the second round. But the good news for Los Angeles is that Utah hasn’t played in six days and thus is also likely to start slow offensively. It was a similar amount of time off that the Jazz had going into the first round. In Game 1 of that series with Memphis, they turned in their lowest scoring effort of just 109 points. Them and the Grizzlies found a way to sneak Over in all five games that they played, but we expect a different scenario to play out here with the Clippers. In the last five games, the Clippers held Dallas to an average of 100.4 points/game on just 42.3% shooting. Mike Conley is questionable tonight for Utah and that would be a big loss. Conley had a great first round series against his former team. On the bright side for the Jazz, they give up only 105.2 points/game at home. The Under is 5-1 the last six times the Clippers have been underdogs, which doesn’t happen often. Play on UNDER AAA | |||||||
06-08-21 | Golden Knights v. Avalanche -139 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -139 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on COLORADO The home team is 4-0 in this series, which is a matchup of arguably the two best teams in the league. Colorado and Vegas tied for the most points in the regular season. They were 1-2 in goal differential. Home ice being such an edge really shouldn’t shock any of us. Colorado is 26-4-2 at home. Vegas is 25-6-3. Now the series goes back to Denver. Guess who we’ll be playing? It is very hard to look past how good the Avalanche had been in the playoffs before dropping the last two games in Sin City. They won the first six games by a combined score of 30-10. They are 20-0-1 the last 21 home games which does include the four playoff wins. They beat Vegas 7-1 in Game 1 before squeaking out a 3-2 overtime victory in Game 2. The Avs top line struggled in Vegas, but had six goals and 24 shots in the first two games. Look for the home team trend to continue. Colorado has had just one three-game losing streak all season. Play on COLORADO AAA | |||||||
06-08-21 | Indians -160 v. Cardinals | Top | 10-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CLEVELAND There’s a lot of Interleague games on the board tonight, but this one features what looks to be the biggest pitching mismatch. We went against Carlos Martinez in his last start. That proved to be a wise decision as the right-hander gave up 10 runs in two-thirds of an inning. The Cardinals ended up losing 14-3 to the Dodgers in what was our MLB Game of the Week. The losing streak has now hit five after the team was swept at home by Cincinnati over the weekend. They’ve lost seven out of their last eight. There’s never an ideal time to face Shane Bieber, but this seems like a particularly bad matchup for St. Louis tonight. Bieber, last year’s Cy Young winner in the AL, has yet to allow more than three earned runs in a start this season. Cleveland has won his last three times out and nine of the previous 11 times he’s started a game. Making things even worse for St. Louis is that there are multiple injuries in the everyday lineup. Play on CLEVELAND AAA | |||||||
06-08-21 | Mariners +110 v. Tigers | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SEATTLE Neither Seattle nor Detroit are going to make much noise this season. But expect the Mariners to come out with a chip on their shoulder for Monday’s opener at Comerica Park. They will want to erase the memory of being swept at home by the Tigers last month as quickly as possible. Seattle is off a 14-game stretch of division games that saw them end up 9-5. They beat the Angels on Sunday, 9-5. Marco Gonzales will get the start Monday. He looked good last Tuesday, giving up just one run on two hits. It was his first start in more than a month due to a forearm strain. Even though Seattle ended up losing the game 12-6, we’d safely call it a successful return. Going back to April, Gonzales has allowed no more than two runs in four consecutive outings. That’s good. Matthew Boyd’s last start for Detroit was not good. He allowed three home runs. It was the fourth straight start he gave up at least four runs and in three of those four he allowed five. Detroit still won that last Boyd start, 10-7 over Milwaukee, so it was a much different scenario than what Gonzales experienced in his last start. This is a great price to go against the Tigers. They’ve been money line favorites only six times prior to this. Play on SEATTLE AAA | |||||||
06-08-21 | Rockies v. Marlins -177 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI A poor stretch has landed the Marlins in last place in their division. But almost never have we been THIS confident about taking a team that’s lost 9 of its last 10 games. This is because they are back home and facing Colorado. The Rockies are an unthinkable 4-22 in road games so far. They’ve been shut out ten times and outscored more than 2:1 (131-63). Pablo Lopez was set to start Monday for Miami, but was pushed back a day for rest purposes. This is a very good thing. Instead of facing the Red Sox at Fenway Park, Lopez now gets to pitch at home where he’s got 0.98 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. Colorado is hitting .197 in road games and scoring just 2.4 runs/game. It gets worse. Antonio Senzatela starts for the Rockies tonight. His team start record away from home is 0-3 and that’s with a 7.14 ERA + 2.03 WHIP. Miami is better than its record and will win this battle of 1993 expansion teams. Play on MIAMI AAA | |||||||
06-07-21 | Royals v. Angels OVER 9 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 101 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER We also like this Royals-Angels game to go Over on Monday. Even after a 2-1 loss Sunday, Kansas City has averaged 6.9 runs over its last seven games. The Over is 7-1-2 their L10 games. They had a seven-game stretch of scoring at least five runs before losing Saturday and Sunday. However, the biggest news out of Kansas City for this game is that one of their top prospects will be starting. Jackson Kowar dominated down at Triple-A Omaha, but this is the big leagues now and we expect him to give up some runs. The Angels are a really solid club offensively when they are at home. They put up 5.4 runs/game in Anaheim. Only three teams average more at home and two are Colorado and Toronto, both of whom play in hitter friendly parks. While we like Dylan Bundy to pick up his first win of the season today for the Angels, it is somewhat difficult to look past his 6.49 ERA. It’s going to take runs for the Angels to win this game and we think they’ll get them. One of Bundy’s better starts this year came against the Royals. So go with the Angels and the Over in Monday’s series opener. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
06-07-21 | Royals v. Angels -151 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LA ANGELS Coming off a 9-5 loss to Seattle on Sunday, look for the Angels to bounce back and take out the Royals on Monday. The Angels had won two in a row before losing Sunday’s game while the Royals have now lost two straight. However, the biggest news out of Kansas City for this game is that one of their top prospects will be starting. Jackson Kowar dominated down at Triple-A Omaha, but this is the big leagues now and we expect him to give up some runs. The Angels are a really solid club offensively when they are at home. They put up 5.4 runs/game in Anaheim. Only three teams average more at home and two are Colorado and Toronto, both of whom play in hitter friendly parks. Dylan Bundy is winless and has the bad ERA we talked about in the Over writeup. But One of Bundy’s better starts this year came against the Royals. It’s telling how the money line has moved this morning. It’s going to take some runs for the Angels to win this game, but we think they get them and they’ll win while the game also goes OVER. Play on LA ANGELS AAA | |||||||
06-07-21 | Jets v. Canadiens -144 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MONTREAL If you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em. It’s become very clear that Montreal has become a very different team in the postseason. Since falling behind Toronto three games to one in the first round series, the Habs have stormed back to win six in a row and are now just one win away from the final four and being North Division Champs. At no point during this six game win streak have the Canadiens trailed. That’s impressive. They proved us wrong by smashing Winnipeg 5-1 last night and the 24-hour turnaround does the Jets NO favors. It’s extremely hard to get motivated when down 0-3 in a series, knowing that only four teams in history have ever come back from that deficit. Montreal goalie Price has been out of his mind the last four games with a .958 save percentage. It’s been 376:18 since the Habs last trailed in a game. That’s the fifth longest stretch in the history of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Winnipeg lost 9 of its last 12 regular season games before a surprise sweep of Edmonton in Round 1. Three of the four wins against the Oilers required OT. We were dead wrong about yesterday and will now rectify that. Play on MONTREAL AAA | |||||||
06-07-21 | Bucks v. Nets UNDER 234.5 | Top | 86-125 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The pace was furious, but slowed down in the fourth quarter and the end result was that the Bucks and Nets went Under in Game 1. After 62, 62 and 58 combined points were scored in the first three quarters, there were only 40 in the fourth. While none of the quarters in tonight’s Game 2 may end up as low scoring as the fourth was on Saturday, we also don’t think the pace will be quite as furious as we saw early on in Game 1. The big story is James Harden being OUT for Brooklyn due to hamstring tightness. Harden missed all but one possession in Game 1 and while the Nets still scored 115 points, that’s below their season average and they shot 46.9%. Durant and Irving went a combined 23 of 51. But the big surprise was Griffin and Harris going 14 of 24 overall and 9 of 18 from three. We just don’t see those two doing that again. Milwaukee’s three-point shooting was an issue in Game 1 as they missed 24 of 30 attempts. They also were 11 of 19 from the FT line. While those percentages probably will improve, it’s still a very high total that we’re dealing with and we don’t see 15 more total points scored than what we saw in Game 1. Milwaukee is 4-0 Under off a loss. The 115 points they allowed in Game 1 were a playoff high (previous high in regulation was 103). Brooklyn has allowed an average of 104.5 points in four playoff home games. Play on UNDER AAA | |||||||
06-07-21 | Islanders v. Bruins -186 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -186 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 7* on BOSTON The Islanders and Bruins are deadlocked at two games apiece in this series as we head to Game 5 in Boston. Furthermore, both teams have scored 11 goals in the four games. Each has a three-goal victory and a one-goal victory. The Islanders won Game 4, 4-1, and we took them. But we also cited their tremendous home record as a reason for doing so. The road has been far less kind to the Isles this year. They were 11-13-4 in the regular season. They are 3-2 in the postseason, but all three wins came in overtime. Boston’s top line was held without a goal in Game 4, something we expect to see change in Game 5. The Bruins are 2-0 off a loss so far in the playoffs and 11-2 their previous 13 home games. This looks to be a classic bounce back position. Things could have gone a lot differently in the last game had David Pastrnak not hit the post on a wide open net when the game was still scoreless. That 4-1 loss was very misleading as the Islanders added two empty-net goals after getting what turned out to be the game-winner with just under seven minutes to go. Play on BOSTON AAA | |||||||
06-07-21 | Marlins v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -117 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER This is Miami’s second trip to Fenway Park in the last 11 days. The first one did not go well as they lost both games. That started a free fall as the Marlins wound up losing eight in a row, a streak that didn’t end until yesterday’s 3-1 win in Pittsburgh. However, this time they may be catching the Red Sox in a favorable spot. Boston went 3-0 over the weekend at Yankee Stadium and that’s a high that will be difficult to come down from. The previous two games between these teams also both stayed Under. The final scores were 5-2 and 3-1. The Marlins lack of offense was odd considering they get to play with a DH. Expect more runs from them the second time around at Fenway. Nick Pivetta, despite owning a 9-2 team start record, has not exactly been a dominant starter for Boston. The Over is 5-1 in his six home starts and his ERA in his last three overall is 5.29. We don’t think the Red Sox will have much difficulty scoring runs either as they are putting up 5.2/game at Fenway. They averaged six per game over the weekend against Yankees pitching. Pablo Lopez, who starts Monday for Miami, has twice allowed six runs in a start this year. Both times were on the road. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
06-06-21 | Jets +124 v. Canadiens | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WINNIPEG We think it’s time for Montreal to stop winning. The only team that made the playoffs with a negative regular season goal differential has come “back from the dead,” winning its last five games. They were down 3-1 in the first round series against Toronto and haven’t lost since! They are now up 2-0 on the Jets after taking both games in Winnipeg. After winning a high-scoring affair in Game 1, 5-3, the Habs got Carey Price’s eighth career playoff shutout in Game 2, 1-0. Price made 30 saves and the only goal in the game came with Montreal actually playing short-handed. Winnipeg has to be kicking itself right now. But all is not lost yet. This is a team that won three overtime games in the first round sweep over Edmonton. Once they came back from a three goal deficit. It would be foolish to write them off. We think they are the better team and, again, can’t see Montreal continue to win. Yes, they are hot. During the five game win streak, they have not trailed. You’d have to go back to 2012 to find the last time a team pulled that off in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. The Jets are 6-0 their last six as underdogs. This is the first time Montreal has been favored in these playoffs. Play on WINNIPEG AAA | |||||||
06-06-21 | Jets v. Canadiens UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -135 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER Carey Price’s eighth career playoff shutout gave Montreal a 2-0 series on Friday. It was 1-0 Montreal in Game 2, the lone goal actually coming when the Habs were playing short-handed. That was a sharp contrast to Game 1, a 5-3 game that featured two four goal periods. Price made 30 saves in Game 2. Montreal got off only 24 shots though, so it was a very fortunate win for them. They have not trailed at any point during their 5-0 playoff run, something that has not been done by any team in the Stanley Cup Playoffs since 2012. The Under is 10-3-1 in Montreal’s last 14 home games and 4-0 in Winnipeg’s last four road games. Stasny may return for the Jets tonight, but Scheifele remains suspended. So they are thin at the center line position. We expect goalie Connor Hellebuyck (.940 save percentage in the playoffs to step up in this one as well. Play on UNDER AAA | |||||||
06-06-21 | Mets v. Padres -135 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -135 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 9* on SAN DIEGO San Diego took the first two games of the series, but had no answers for Jacob deGrom on Saturday. That 4-0 loss was fine by us as we took the Under. But the Mets obviously can’t have deGrom pitch every day and the bottom line here is they are facing one of the top teams in baseball. The Padres allow just 3.4 runs per game, #1 in the league. They allow just 2.8 runs per game at home. There’s one team that allows fewer runs per game at home and it’s the best. But this game is in San Diego. The Padres are 20-11 at home this year. The Mets are 13-18 on the road. San Diego lost its final two games in May and first two here in June. Other than that four-game losing streak, there’s been just one other time since April 22nd when they dropped back to back games. All of those losses were on the road too. Look for Chris Paddack to bounce back today after a poor start at Wrigley Field. Paddack had allowed no more than one run in four consecutive starts before giving up five to the Cubs last weekend. Marcus Stroman has been good for the Mets, but we don’t see him getting much support from one of the NL’s weakest offenses. The Padres simply have more firepower at the plate and can be trusted when not going against deGrom. Play on SAN DIEGO AAA | |||||||
06-06-21 | Mavs v. Clippers UNDER 210.5 | Top | 111-126 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The only Game 7 of the first round comes from a series where the road team is 6-0. That had never happened before the Mavs and Clippers, but here we are. It’s a series where we’ve gone 6-1, our only loss coming with Dallas in Game 6 as we had expected them to break “the curse” of the home team. That obviously did not happen. But we are 4 for 4 when playing the total. We had the Under in Games 1, 4 and 5 so that’s been our favorite bet throughout the series. Sharp money has definitely hit the Under hard for Game 7, which should not be a surprise. The Under has hit each of the last three games (Game 6 ended up being 104-97), none of which have exceeded 205 total points. Also, Unders have done historically well in Game 7’s, hitting over 60% of the time. Dallas is making only 43.9% of their shots the last five games after a hot start to the series. The Clippers have not been hitting their threes as Game 5 saw them plummet down to 29.4 percent (10 of 34) from that range. As we’ve stated before, the Mavs typically go Under when they’re underdogs. That record now stands at 23-7 for the year. Play on UNDER AAA | |||||||
06-06-21 | Hawks v. 76ers -3 | Top | 128-124 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 53 m | Show |
This is an 8* on PHILADELPHIA Joel Embiid’s Game 1 status is up in the air, but remember that the Sixers won the series clincher against Washington without him. This line feels awfully short for a top seed playing at home. We’d say the line should be -3 before factoring in any kind of home court advantage. When these teams met three times in the regular season, the home team won all three times. Philadelphia hosted twice and won by 44 and 22. Those wins came in April too. The significance of that is that it was post-coaching change for Atlanta, which is when they got a lot better. The Hawks have lost only 11 games since Nate McMillan took over, but two of those were to the Sixers. Philadelphia scored 120 or more points in all four of its first round wins and regardless of whether Embiid plays today or not, they will be much more difficult to defend than the Knicks were (for Atlanta) in Round 1. Speaking of defending, the Sixers gave up the second fewest number of points per possession in the league during the regular season. Atlanta has traditionally struggled in this round, going 6-17-1 ATS its last 24 games. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA | |||||||
06-05-21 | Mets v. Padres UNDER 6 | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the UNDER Jacob deGrom is pitching Saturday night for the Mets and even though he’s facing San Diego, we’ve got a very low total on our hands here. We’ll still go Under. deGrom has a 0.71 ERA and a 0.57 WHIP. There has been one time in eight starts that he gave up more than one run and the three he allowed that day (at Colorado) were all unearned. So that’s just four earned runs he’s given up in 2021. But deGrom is not the only reason we like this game to go Under. San Diego will be sending Joe Musgrove to the mound. In addition to throwing the franchise’s first ever no-hitter back on April 9th at Texas, Musgrove has given San Diego a 2.43 ERA and 0.83 WHIP. His numbers over the last three starts are even better than deGrom’s. The Padres only give up 2.8 runs/game at home. That coupled with the best pitcher in baseball make this an easy call on the Under. Expect very few runs to be scored tonight. Play on UNDER AAA | |||||||
06-05-21 | Bucks v. Nets -4 | Top | 107-115 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BROOKLYN Look for Brooklyn to win Game 1 comfortably. Milwaukee is an underdog, which is rare, but it hasn’t been a good situation for them - at all. 0-4 this season - straight up and ATS - and 0-8 SU and ATS the last eight times. They’ve yet to face the Nets with Kevin Durant, James Harden and Kyrie Irving all suited up. We think the Bucks stock may be a bit too high after it took the minimum four games to beat the Heat in the first round. It’s not as if the Nets had much difficulty ousting Boston either. They did lose once, but that took a superhuman 50-point effort from Jayson Tatum. All four Nets wins in the first round were by double digits. They are the only team that averaged more points per game than Milwaukee in the regular season. Again, they did so despite the three All Stars not playing much together. Not surprising, Brooklyn’s scoring increased against Boston to 123.4 points/game. And it should be noted the Celtics are a pretty decent defensive team. Milwaukee is 6-16 ATS in 2020-21 following a win streak of three or more. A full week off for the Bucks is not ideal when having to deal with the Nets’ tempo. Play on BROOKLYN AAA | |||||||
06-05-21 | Dodgers -120 v. Braves | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LA DODGERS The last two times the Dodgers have taken the field, they’ve won for us. On Wednesday, they were our *10* Game of the Week. We laid the -1.5 (run line), thinking it wouldn’t be a problem and sure enough they beat St. Louis 14-3. With them now on the road, the price was much cheaper on Friday, so we grabbed them again and this time they beat the Braves 9-5. Despite Clayton Kershaw being on the mound tonight, the price is still pretty cheap and we can’t understand why. The Dodgers have the top run differential in baseball right now at +87. They are superior to the Braves in all facets. Kershaw, who is off a rare bad outing, should definitely bounce back here. He is unbeaten in 11 career starts vs. Atlanta in the regular season, going 5-0 with a 1.78 ERA. The Braves not only have a losing overall record this season, they have a losing record at home. While 3-0 in Charlie Morton’s past three starts (Morton starts tonight), none of those opponents were the Dodgers. Play on LA DODGERS AAA | |||||||
06-05-21 | Bruins v. Islanders +1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 6* on the ISLANDERS +1.5 The Islanders were able to win one in Boston, but immediately gave the home ice advantage right back to the Bruins by losing 2-1 in Game 3. It was a game that went into overtime. The Islanders have had a tremendous home ice edge all season, so we can’t see them losing two in a row. Still, just to be careful, we’ll go with the puck line (+1.5). This is a team that has suffered only five home losses in regulation all season. That’s significant because all we need is for this game to be tied at the end of regulation and it’s a guaranteed winner due to the puck line. Both times New York has been trailing in the series during these playoffs, they have won the next game. Those two wins were Game 2 in Boston and then Game 4 vs. Pittsburgh, which was here in Uniondale. The Bruins dropped all four regular season games here. The Islanders scored at least four goals in each of their three home games in the first round. So they should find the back of the net more tonight. At no point in this season have the Islanders dropped two straight home games in regulation. Play on NY ISLANDERS +1.5 (PUCK LINE) AAA | |||||||
06-05-21 | Nationals +1.5 v. Phillies | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -175 | 7 h 23 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WASHINGTON +1.5 (RUN LINE) The Nationals captured last night’s series opener 2-1. Because of that, we like them +1.5 (run line) on Saturday. The Phillies’ 17-3 win over the Reds on Wednesday is looking like a total outlier as the club has scored no more than three runs in any other of its last eight games. Washington has won three of its last four ball games, all of them coming on the division road. Joe Ross starts on Saturday. He gave up only three hits in his last start and while it ended up being a losing effort, it was the sixth time in seven starts where Ross allowed five hits or less. Ross is 2-0 with a 3.21 ERA all-time vs. the Phillies, who had just six hits in last night’s game. With the exception of yesterday, all the recent putrid offensive efforts by Philadelphia had been on the road. But they only average 4.2 runs/game at home. Spencer Howard is starting for them today and has had issues with a drop in velocity through the first three outings of 2021. Howard hasn’t gone more than four innings yet and the Phillies bullpen has been poor. Play on WASHINGTON +1.5 AAA | |||||||
06-04-21 | Avalanche v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER As we said in the Game 2 analysis, Colorado looks like the team to beat in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. They are 6-0 in the playoffs and have scored 30 goals. They did need overtime to win Game 2 over Vegas in what was their lowest scoring effort of the postseason (three goals). The Avalanche have not lost a game since May 5th and are 14-1 L15 overall. Averaging 5.0 goals/game in the playoffs and 3.7 for the year, there’s no doubt with us that the Avs are likely to score three or more this evening. When on a win streak of three or more games, the Avs are 16-4 to the Over this year. Vegas is back home now - where they’ve always had an advantage. It may not be enough for them to overcome this juggernaut, but look for the Golden Knights to score as they are averaging 3.4 goals/game in Sin City. The last time they played at T-Mobile Arena, they scored six times in a Game 7 victory over the Wild. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
06-04-21 | Clippers v. Mavs +3 | Top | 104-97 | Loss | -113 | 33 h 35 m | Show |
This is an 8* on DALLAS We’re now 6-0 over the five games of this series with the Under giving us three of those wins. We also won once with the Over. We’ve played the side twice, winning with Dallas in Game 2 and the Clippers in Game 3. The Mavericks now have a 3-2 series lead after taking Game 5 by a score of 105-100. They got 42-8-14 from Luka Doncic, who has been the best player - on either team - in the series. If you’re a Clippers fan, the scary thing is to hear Doncic say “I could have played way better.” We agree that the Mavs could have shot better as a team. They made only 41.6% from the field in Game 5. The home team has yet to win a game, but we see that as likely to change in Game 6 where we like the short home dog. It’s difficult to see the home team losing six in a row in one series. Play on DALLAS AAA | |||||||
06-04-21 | Canadiens v. Jets -109 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WINNIPEG Winnipeg cannot afford to be down 0-2 when this series heads to Montreal this weekend. So off a poor showing in Game 1 where they lost 5-3, expect the Jets to come out flying tonight in Game 2. One could make the argument that “rust” was an issue for Winnipeg in Game 1. They had not played in more than a week after sweeping the first round series against Edmonton. Montreal had just one day off between series after they won a Game 7 in Toronto. They scored three goals in the first period Wednesday, which is more than they averaged PER GAME in Round 1. The Canadiens have been underdogs in every playoff game so far and were the only playoff team with a negative regular season goal differential. So it’s a surprise that they’re still playing, let alone leading a second round series. After the brutal hit Jake Evans took at the end of Game 1, the Habs have some obvious motivation themselves tonight. But as Winnipeg’s Andrew Copp so “eloquently” put it, “We're not worried about any targets or whatever they're saying in the media. We're worried about going and winning Game 2. It's a big f---ing game for us." Montreal is 17-7 L24 after scoring five or more goals in the previous game. Play on WINNIPEG AAA | |||||||
06-04-21 | Dodgers -127 v. Braves | Top | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the DODGERS The Dodgers have the edge coming into this series as they had Thursday off while Atlanta did not. The Braves played in the afternoon yesterday, wrapping up a four-game series with Washington and they won 5-1. But they are still two games below .500 and not looking like the same team that was up three games to one in last year’s NLCS vs. the Dodgers. Los Angeles has stumbled in a bit in recent days as well. They are just 3-5 their last eight games and in third place in the West. But just as they were last October, they are a much better ballclub than Atlanta. The Dodgers’ run differential is +83, which is the best in baseball. They were our Game of the Week on Wednesday when they crushed the Cardinals 14-3. Urias gets the start tonight and he has a 0.66 WHIP in five road starts. That’s enough to counteract that Atlanta’s Anderson has a 5-0 team start record at home. Going back to 2019, LA is 31-12 playing with a day off. Urias was 2-0 with a 1.13 ERA in last year’s LCS. Play on LOS ANGELES AAA | |||||||
06-03-21 | Suns +2 v. Lakers | Top | 113-100 | Win | 100 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
This is an 8* on PHOENIX The Lakers appear lost offensively without Anthony Davis. They still have LeBron James and because of that most are going to expect them to force a Game 7. But we don’t. People have underrated this Suns team all season as their 45-30-2 ATS record is second best in the whole league. The Lakers’ ATS record of 33-44-1 is among the five worst in basketball. The Lakers scored a season-low 85 points in Game 5 and trailed by 30 at halftime. While it’s reasonable to assume things will be closer in Game 6, which is in LA, we don’t think the Lakers can make up the entire gap we saw in the last game. That’s even if Davis plays, which is up to the doctors. The Suns defense has been great since the start of the second half of Game 4 as the Lakers are shooting less than 40 percent. Cameron Payne has really stepped up with Chris Paul playing hurt. Devin Booker is handling the scoring. For LA, James has been settling for threes and not getting to the free throw. His supporting cast simply can’t make up for the loss of Davis. You’re seeing why this was a team that had to win a play-in game just to be part of the playoffs. Take the points. Play on PHOENIX AAA | |||||||
06-03-21 | Mariners v. Angels -145 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -145 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LA Angels We just played against Seattle two days ago. It was the right play as they lost the game (to Oakland) 12-6. Then they lost again to the A’s last night, 6-0. So that’s back to back six run losses for a team that had previously won five in a row. But we told you this team has been pretty lucky so far with a 5-0 record in extra inning games. Now they are hitting the road for the first time in over a week. The road has not been kind to Seattle the previous three seasons. Their record in away games is 53-82 in that time. The Mariners have the lowest team batting average in either league (.208) and also rank last in on base percentage and OPS. Thursday’s starting pitcher (Justus Sheffield) is 0-3 on the road with a 6.75 ERA and 1.88 WHIP. The Angels have won three of four and had Wednesday off. In three previous starts vs. Seattle, Griffin Canning has a 1.47 ERA. That’s a lot better than Sheffield’s three career starts vs. LA where his ERA is 6.59. Just not a fan of this Seattle team right now. Play on LA Angels AAA | |||||||
06-03-21 | Nuggets v. Blazers UNDER 228 | Top | 126-115 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER There’s been lots of scoring in the Nuggets-Blazers series, but Game 5 was the peak as the teams went into double overtime and combined for 287 points. Damian Lillard had 55 of those, but his team lost 147-140. It was 121-121 at the end of regulation, so even without OT it would have been the highest scoring game of the five so far. Only Game 4 has gone Under. That happened to be the last time they played in Portland, which is where Game 6 is tonight. Denver scored just 95 points in Game 4. Game 5 happened to be the first time in the series where both teams shot better than 43 percent from three. So that isn’t likely to happen again. Lillard isn’t going to score 55 again and Denver’s supporting cast around Nikola Jokic isn’t going to produce here like they did at home. Four Denver guards - Rivers, Campazzo, Morris and Howard - have combined to shoot 42% from three in the series, which cannot possibly continue. We think there’s a good shot tonight ends up being the lowest scoring game of the series so far. Portland is 5-1 Under after allowing 130 or more points. Play on UNDER AAA | |||||||
06-03-21 | Bruins v. Islanders +125 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the ISLANDERS The Islanders earned a split in Boston, which is all they needed to do. Now they have the home ice advantage in this East Division Final. They were big underdogs in Boston for Games 1 and 2. They are still the dog in Game 3 at home and we’re seeing a lot of value with them in that role. The Game 2 win did require overtime. But the Islanders did have a 3-1 lead with 10 minutes to go in regulation. Goalie Semyon Varlamov made 39 saves in Game 2, proving that the Islanders now have two reliable options between the pipes. It is very important to recall how good the Islanders were on home ice in the regular season. They went 21-4-3 at Nassau Coliseum. Only Carolina had a fewer number of home regulation losses. Boston lost all four regular season visits to Uniondale. In the three home games in the first round, NY scored 13 goals. Each one saw them score at least four times. So you can see why we think there’s real value here. Play on NY ISLANDERS AAA | |||||||
06-02-21 | Golden Knights v. Avalanche -176 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* on COLORADO Colorado absolutely ragdolled Vegas in Game 1, winning 7-1. Based on the fact they’ve won their first five playoff games by a cumulative score of 27-8, the Avalanche look like the favorites right now to capture the Stanley Cup. None of the five games have been decided by fewer than three goals. They outshot Vegas 37-25 in Game 1 as their speed was clearly too much for a team coming off a Game 7 victory. That the Avs swept their first round series while the Knights went the full seven games seems to be significant here, though not as significant as the Avs having home ice advantage. These were two of the most dominant home teams in the regular season. But Vegas is just 11-26 its last 37 games as a road underdog. Colorado has not lost a game since May 5th and is 13-1 in its last 14. While we expect to see Marc-Andre Fleury back between the pipes for Vegas, he alone cannot stem the tide. Play on COLORADO AAA | |||||||
06-02-21 | Mavs v. Clippers UNDER 217.5 | Top | 105-100 | Win | 100 | 14 h 29 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the UNDER We’ve won once with Dallas in this series (Game 2), once with the Clippers (Game 3) and once with the Over (Game 2). But the Under is something we’ve won with twice (Games 1 and 4) and that’s how we’re playing Game 5 tonight between the Mavs and Clippers. The home team is 0-4 SU/ATS in this series with the Clippers having come back from an early 0-2 hole. They dominated Game 4 in Dallas, winning by 25 and holding the Mavs to a series-low 81 points. The Mavericks shot just 34.8 percent overall and were 5 of 30 from three point range. Luka Doncic was dealing with neck pain and had his least productive game of the series. The Under is now 22-6 this season in games where Dallas is the underdog. The Clippers are 15-5 Under in their past 20 games. We don’t think that LA can continue shooting 50% like they have over the course of the first four games. They are an underrated team defensively as they allowed the eighth fewest points per possession in the regular season. Play on UNDER AAA | |||||||
06-02-21 | Grizzlies +9.5 v. Jazz | Top | 110-126 | Loss | -104 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MEMPHIS The Grizzlies are facing elimination in Game 5 as the series moves back to Utah. It’s a tall order facing the underdogs as they’ve now got to defeat the team with the best record in the NBA three straight times, including twice on the road. But considering they did win Game 1 here in Salt Lake City, it would be foolish to write Memphis off at this point. We went with them in what turned out to be 112-109 upset in Game 1 and will do the same tonight. Even though they’ve lost three straight, the Grizzlies have not played poorly by any means in this series. Game 2 was an obvious bounce back situation for the Jazz, but Memphis was still within six in the fourth quarter. The two games at Memphis were both competitive. Game 3 saw the Grizzlies ahead with just over four minutes to go. Game 4 saw them fight back and get as close as two points in the fourth quarter. Take the points tonight. Utah’s three point shooting in the last three games has been excellent, but will cool off. The three point shooting for Memphis should improve from the 28.6% we saw in the last game. The Grizzlies are 24-17 straight up (and 24-15 ATS) on the road in 2020-21. The Jazz are only 3-8 ATS their last 11 home games. Play on MEMPHIS AAA | |||||||
06-02-21 | Cardinals v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 3-14 | Win | 100 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LAD -1.5 St. Louis pulled off an upset, winning 3-2 last night here at Dodgers Stadium. But the idea of them winning two in a row seems remote. The Dodgers, paced by an offense that scores 5.2 runs/game and a pitching staff that allows only 3.9, should still be considered the best team in baseball. They have scored 72 more runs than they have allowed through 55 games. The only two teams with better run differentials this year are the Padres and White Sox. The Cardinals are seven games over .500 and chasing the Cubs in the Central. But they have scored exactly one more run than they’ve allowed. The gap in the two teams’ run differentials is significant to us in handicapping this matchup. So is the fact that Dodgers starter Walker Buehler is 3-0 in his 10 starts with a 2.66 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. He probably deserves better than a 6-4 team start record. His ERA is 0.90 his last three starts as he’s allowed just three runs, one unearned, in 20 innings. There have been only two starts this year where Buehler gave up more than two runs and every start has gone at least six innings. Carlos Martinez did carry a no-hitter into the 7th inning in his last start. But he was facing Arizona. Dodgers are 53-24 L77 if they scored two or less runs in the last game. Play LA DODGERS -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA | |||||||
06-01-21 | A's -155 v. Mariners | Top | 12-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OAKLAND The A’s lost to the Mariners 6-5 on Monday. But they should get back in the win column tonight behind Chris Bassitt. The teams went 10 innings on Memorial Day with Seattle scoring twice in the bottom of the 10th to improve to 5-0 in extras this year. They can’t keep being THAT lucky. Yesterday’s win was the 5th in a row for the Mariners, but the previous four all came at the expense of the last place Rangers. Oakland had more hits yesterday. They are 4-0 in Bassitt’s last four starts and this is the guy they want on the hill in this situation. Not only did he throw a complete game shutout last Thursday, but he has a 6-0 team start record on the road. After losing his first two starts, Oakland is 8-1 in his last nine. Seattle goes with Gonzales, who isn’t bad, but he spent the last month on the disabled list. He could very well come out rusty. Oakland was 3 for 14 when they had runners in scoring position yesterday. They should do better than that today and look for them to snap a five-game homerless streak. Play on OAKLAND AAA | |||||||
06-01-21 | Lakers v. Suns UNDER 207.5 | Top | 85-115 | Win | 100 | 23 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The Lakers seemed to be well in control of this best of seven series. Then they lost Game 4. In that 100-92 setback, Anthony Davis strained his left groin and did not play in the second half. Already nursing an ankle injury, it seems doubtful that Davis will play tonight. The Lakers have not shot the ball well from three point range in the series, making only 29.1 percent of their attempts. This is a series where the losing team has been held below 100 points in three of the four games. There’s been one Over and that was Game 2 where a bunch of late free throws pushed the scoring past the number. Phoenix has shot 32.1 percent or worse from three in all but one game. Chris Paul is not 100 percent for them. Seeing as how none of the four games have had more than 211 total points scored and two have had less than 200, we’re going Under for Game 5. The Lakers are 28-9 Under this year vs. teams with winning records. They are 9-4 Under off a straight up loss as a favorite. Play on UNDER AAA | |||||||
06-01-21 | Angels v. Giants UNDER 7 | Top | 8-1 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER Some fascinating trends to consider when playing the total in this Angels-Giants game today. The Angels have gone Under in five straight games. They could only manage one run in yesterday’s loss to the Giants. Tuesday’s starter Heaney is 7-0 Over his last seven starts, but neither his WHIP or ERA are all that terrible. Starting for the Giants will be Alex Wood and the Under is 4-0 his last four starts. The final scores of those four games were: 3-1, 4-1, 1-2 and 3-4. So no more than seven runs in any of them. There were seven total runs scored in yesterday’s game, six of them by San Francisco. The Angels don’t have Mike Trout (injured) and can’t use the designated hitter in this series. So their offense is severely weakened right now. Ohtani is relegated to being a pinch-hitter. Visiting teams are scoring just 3.3 runs/game in San Fran this year. So as long as the Giants offense doesn’t go off, and we don’t think it will, this game is staying Under. Play on UNDER AAA | |||||||
06-01-21 | Lightning v. Hurricanes -110 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CAROLINA Of the three second round series that are already underway, Tampa Bay was the lone road team to take Game 1. That puts a lot of pressure on Carolina to win Game 2. We think they will as they should bounce back from their worst offensive performance of the postseason. The ‘Canes scored just one goal in Game 1 after scoring at least three in all six games of the first round series against Nashville. The Lightning were outshot 38-30 in Game 1 as they continue to allow very high shot totals (37.9 per game) in the playoffs. Eventually, that is going to come back to bite them. Game 1 was just the 10th time all year that Carolina was held to one goal or less. They had also won all their home games in the first round. They had just eight home losses the entirety of the regular season and a league-low three in regulation. So we really can’t stress just how atypical the Game 1 showing was for the Central Division champs. Count on them evening this series up at a game apiece. Play on CAROLINA AAA | |||||||
05-31-21 | Canadiens v. Maple Leafs OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 33 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Toronto fans have to be getting uneasy as their team has lost two straight overtime games and now the series with Montreal comes down to a winner take all Game 7. Those fans can take solace in the fact Vegas was also in this position and the third time turned out to be the charm when it came to putting Minnesota away. Like the Knights, the Leafs get the deciding game on home ice. They’ve outshot Montreal in the series and have outscored them 17-11. Seven of Montreal’s 11 series goals have been in the last two games, two of those obviously game winners in OT. While we certainly favor Toronto tonight, the money line is just a little too rich for our blood. We like the Under more anyway as Habs goaltender Carey Price is doing “Carey Price things” with a .926 save percentage for the series. The Under is 20-5-4 in Montreal’s last 29 playoff games as the underdog. The Under is also 8-3-1 the previous 12 Montreal vs. Toronto clashes. Play on UNDER AAA | |||||||
05-31-21 | 76ers -8 v. Wizards | Top | 114-122 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PHILADELPHIA Look for the 76ers to finish off the Wizards tonight and to do so in decided fashion. This is just a one sided series as Philadelphia is averaging 125.7 points/game and allowing only 105.3. The last two games were basically over by halftime and ended up being wins of 25 and 29 points. The Wizards have not shot well, which is essentially doom for them as they don’t play very good defense. The teams have met six times this year with Philadelphia now 6-0 straight up. They’ve scored at least 120 points in five of the six wins. Washington has been held under its season average in four of the six losses. Russell Westbrook is hobbled, which makes things even worse for the underdog. Going back to last year, the Sixers have beaten the Wizards eight straight times. They are on a 10-3-1 ATS run as road favorites coming into tonight. Washington has given little indication that they can “hang” and they are 2-10 ATS the last 12 games as a playoff dog. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA | |||||||
05-31-21 | Red Sox v. Astros +104 | Top | 2-11 | Win | 104 | 6 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON After taking a couple of unlucky extra inning losses from the Padres, Houston bounced back with a 7-4 win on Sunday. Now they’ll host Boston. The Red Sox also just got done hosting a National League team. Their game on Sunday got postponed but they did win each of the previous two days vs. Miami. But when analyzing Monday’s opener, what we see are two starting pitchers trending in opposite directions. Boston’s Eduardo Rodriguez has a 7.80 ERA and 1.87 WHIP his last three times out. All three outings have ended in defeat. Rodriguez has allowed at least four runs in four of his last five starts. Then you have Jose Urquidy for Houston. He has a 1.02 ERA and 0.68 WHIP in his last three starts. Those three decisions have all gone the Astros’ way. We look for the trends to continue today as Houston should win a second straight at home. Play on HOUSTON AAA | |||||||
05-30-21 | Clippers v. Mavs UNDER 222 | Top | 106-81 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER The Clippers are back in this series after winning Game 3 118-108. The last two games have both gone Over as Dallas won Game 2 127-121. We had the Over in that game as well as the Under in Game 1, which was a 113-103 win for the Mavs. After cashing the Clippers in Game 3, it is back to the total for Game 4 and we are taking the Under in this one. The Clippers shot 57% in Game 3. No way they’ll do that again. Plus, the Mavericks have to start cooling off from behind the three point line. In the series, they are 55 of 109. That’s over 50%! They made only 18 of 47 two-point shots in Game 3. Dallas went from 58% in Game 2 to 44% in Game 3 on all field goal attempts. We expect a similar decrease tonight on the Clippers side after that 57% shooting on Friday night. The Under is 20-7 in Dallas past 27 games as an underdog. Play on UNDER AAA | |||||||
05-30-21 | Nets v. Celtics UNDER 229 | Top | 141-126 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER It took a Herculean effort from Jayson Tatum (50 points!) for the Celtics to win Game 3, 125-119 as a seven-point underdog. We don’t think Tatum will be going for 50 again nor do we think Boston will go 16 of 39 as a team from three-point range again. The Celtics were 50% overall from the field in Game 3, a number they weren’t close to in Games 1 or 2 where they shot 36.9% and 42.4% respectively. Even if you assume Kemba Walker shoots the ball better today compared to Game 3, it’s probably a net loss in offensive production when you factor in Tatum’s likely regression. Same thing with Brooklyn’s Kyrie Irving, who did not shoot the ball well in the last game. But Kevin Durant and James Harden combined for 80 points. Will they do that again? Unlikely. The Nets’ own three point shooting (now over 43% the past two games) is probably going to start going down as well. The Under is 4-1 the last five times they’ve been off an ATS loss. Play on UNDER AAA | |||||||
05-30-21 | Lightning v. Hurricanes OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -118 | 7 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The second round of the NHL Playoffs is underway and the two teams from the Central that we expected would face off - Carolina and Tampa Bay - will do so. The Hurricanes finished first in the division in the regular season with 80 points. But the third place Lightning were not all that far behind with 75. The ‘Canes might be the division champs, but the Lightning won the Stanley Cup last year and are slight favorites to win the series, despite not having the home ice advantage. We like the Over in Game 1 as Tampa Bay scored at least three goals in five of the six first round games vs. Florida. Four times they scored four or more. Nikita Kucherov is back and led the league with 11 points in Round 1. Carolina scored three or more goals in all six of its first round games with Nashville. They are probably thrilled not to be facing Nashville’s Juuse Saros anymore. If both teams get to three (goals) today, it’s a guaranteed Over and we think there’s a good chance of that happening. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
05-30-21 | Giants v. Dodgers -175 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -175 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 7* on LA DODGERS After sweeping the Giants last weekend and taking the opener of this series, 4-3 on Thursday, the Dodgers have all of a sudden dropped two in a row. We expect them to get back to their winning ways Sunday with Clayton Kershaw on the mound. Kershaw had a rough season debut in Coors Field, but since then has an 8-2 team start record and the Dodgers have won his last four starts. He’s allowed no more than three runs in eight of those 10 starts while pitching at least six innings in seven of them. His seven wins are tied for second most in the majors. In the past, Kershaw has been excellent against the Giants, delivering a 1.79 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. With a 5-0 WL record, Kevin Gausman seems like a worthy adversary here. But a string of seven consecutive starts without allowing more than one run is likely to end Sunday. Only one time so far this season has LA dropped three straight at home. Play on LA DODGERS AAA | |||||||
05-29-21 | Cardinals v. Diamondbacks +1.5 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -130 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
INCORRECTLY ENTERED PLAY | |||||||
05-29-21 | Rangers v. Mariners OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The first two games of this four game series have produced just five runs apiece. All five were produced by the home team (Seattle) in Thursday’s game while things were a little tighter last night. But Seattle still won 3-2, handing Texas its fourth straight loss. Look for the scoring to pick up Saturday though. Neither starter is all that impressive with Foltynewicz’s 1.64 WHIP on the road for the Rangers really sticking out. This is probably a good time to bet against Foltynewicz as he’s coming off his best start of 2021. He has yet to pitch two straight quality starts. A 7.43 ERA vs. Seattle (four appearances against them) is another bad sign. Seattle is starting to hit better after a comically bad start to the season. But they are 0-3 in Justin Dunn’s last three starts with the opposition averaging seven runs per game. These teams have combined to go 9-0 Over their L9 Saturday games. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
05-29-21 | Maple Leafs -185 v. Canadiens | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -185 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 7* on TORONTO Toronto failed to close out Montreal on Thursday, losing Game 5 at home in overtime by a score of 4-3. But that followed three wins by a cumulative score 11-2 and there’s no doubt who the better team is in this series. So we expect the Maple Leafs not to let a second chance to end the series pass them by on Saturday. The number of goals scored by the Canadiens in Game 5 (4) matched the number they had in the first four games of the series. It was just their second win since May 3rd! Coming into the playoffs, our opinion was that the Habs were the weakest of the 16 teams. There will be 2,500 fans present at the arena tonight, the first time there have been fans at a NHL game in Canada since the pandemic. But that can only carry an inferior side so far. Toronto is 18-4 playing with revenge and 11-1 if the loss was at home. This Montreal team has just one regulation win in May and only one win streak since the beginning of April. Play on TORONTO AAA | |||||||
05-29-21 | Marlins v. Red Sox -152 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
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05-29-21 | Yankees -135 v. Tigers | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -135 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the YANKEES The Tigers shocked the Yankees last night with a 3-2 win. The game went 10 innings and saw Robbie Grossman hit a walkoff 2-run HR to win the game for the home team. We don’t see the Yankees losing two in a row to this lowly team. Detroit looks to be a serious contender for “worst team in baseball” this season as they are last among American League teams in runs scored. When the Tigers traveled to NY at the end of April, they ended up losing all three games. Despite winning yesterday, they were outhit 11 to 7. The Yankees did not get a single hit with runners in scoring position (0 for 10) and left 12 men on base in the game. Giancarlo Stanton was the biggest offender as he went 0 for 5 with four strikeouts in his first game back from a quad injury. The Tigers are so inept they didn’t even notice when the Yankees' Gio Urshela headed to first after only three balls! Spencer Turbull did throw a no-hitter earlier this year for the Tigers, but overall his team start record is only 3-4. Yesterday was an aberration. The Yankees are simply a better team and Deivi Garcia shouldn’t have much trouble pitching them to victory Saturday. Play on NY YANKEES AAA | |||||||
05-29-21 | Nuggets v. Blazers -4 | Top | 95-115 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PORTLAND Portland is looking to avoid dropping back to back home games to Denver, which would put them in a 3-1 hole in the series. The Blazers simply have not defended well over the course of the three games, first allowing the Nuggets to shoot better than 50% overall in the two games in Denver and then 52.6% from three (20 of 38) in Game 3. But we like old “zig zag theory” to come through for Game 4 as Portland should bounce back at home. Damian Lillard, after an incredible individual effort in Game 2, made just 5 of 16 three point attempts on Thursday. He still scored 37 points mind you, but the team ended up 14 of 45 from three point land. It was the second game in this series where we saw a pretty massive discrepancy in three point shooting between the two teams. The discrepancy worked out in Portland’s favor when they won Game 1 and it’s only natural to see a swing in their favor for Game 4. Denver won’t have Will Barton active for tonight and that’s on top of missing Jamal Murray. We don’t think Austin Rivers is capable of duplicating his Game 3 effort and the Blazers should move to 9-4 ATS this season when off a loss as a favorite. Play on PORTLAND AAA | |||||||
05-28-21 | Clippers -130 v. Mavs | Top | 118-108 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LA CLIPPERS (Moneyline) The Clippers have to win tonight or they’re down 0-3 and the series would be effectively over. Dropping both games at home was not great, however it’s not as if the Clippers played poorly in either game. Dallas simply could not miss, especially in the last game where they connected on 58.5% of their field goals attempts including 18 of 34 from three-point land. We do not see that happening again nor do we see the Clippers continuing to be so cold from behind the three point line. They scored 73 points in the first half of Game 2 and still lost at home. That’s pretty crazy when you think about it. Los Angeles hasn’t found a way to stop Luka Doncic in either of the first two games, but with two days to prepare for Game 3, we think they’ll have a gameplan. The Clippers’ current four game losing streak, which includes the final two games of the regular season, is the team’s longest of the season. They were previously 2-0 ATS off three straight losses this season. We like them to win Game 3, but will play the money line just to be safe. Play on LA Clippers (moneyline) AAA | |||||||
05-28-21 | Wild v. Golden Knights -171 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* on VEGAS It’s come down to a Game 7 between the Wild and Golden Knights. This will be the Knights’ third try at putting away the Wild and they hope the third time's the charm. They get the game at home. While they’ve lost two of the three home games in the series, you’ve got to think they are still happy to be playing in Sin City. The regular season saw them lose just seven times at T-Mobile Arena. In the franchise’s short history, they have established quite the strong home ice advantage. There have been three games in this series where Vegas has had 40 or more shots on goal. Somehow they lost two of them. They lost Game 5 despite a 40-14 edge in shots. Things were tighter (in terms of shots) in Game 6, but the Wild won that one 3-0. The bad news for Minnesota is that they are 3-11 off their previous 14 shutout victories. After being blanked in Game 1, Vegas rallied for a 3-1 win in Game 2. They’ve held Minnesota to an average of 1.8 goals on 25.7 shots per game in this series. Those kinds of numbers usually result in you advancing. The Golden Knights are 9-3 this season after being held to one or zero goals in their last game. Play on VEGAS AAA | |||||||
05-28-21 | Blue Jays -154 v. Indians | Top | 11-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TORONTO Toronto begins a three-game series in Cleveland Friday night. Free from their own division, the Blue Jays are hoping to turn things around at Progressive Field this weekend. While they did split Thursday’s doubleheader with the Yankees, the Jays have lost seven of their last nine games to fall to fourth in the American League East. Those nine games were against the Red Sox, Rays and Yankees, all of whom are ahead of them in the standings. The Indians (27-21) also have a better record than Toronto (25-24), but they play in a much weaker Central Division. Cleveland just finished a series with Detroit where they took three of four and they are now 19-11 in division games this season. But they are 8-10 in non-division games and that’s what this is. Hyun-Jin Ryu is on a solid run of starts for Toronto as he’s made three straight quality starts where he’s given up three runs in 20 ⅔ innings. We know that Eli Morgan is a heralded pitching prospect for Cleveland, but we do not fear him in his 1st big league start Friday. It’s telling that Toronto is such a favorite. Play on TORONTO AAA | |||||||
05-28-21 | Knicks +4.5 v. Hawks | Top | 94-105 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NEW YORK Trailing by double digits at halftime in Game 2, the Knicks appeared to be in grave danger of falling down 0-2 in this series with the Hawks. But they put the clamps down in the second half of that last game, holding Atlanta to just 35 points, and it ended up being a 101-92 New York win. Having lost the first game by only two points, Knicks’ fans probably feel as if they should be up 2-0 in the series. That it was the defense that sparked the second half comeback on Wednesday should not come as any surprise. The Knicks allowed the fewest number of points per game in the league during the regular season. They are also the league’s best ATS team with a cover rate of 65.3%, which is well out in front of everyone else. The fact they’ve covered 9 of their last 11 games as road underdogs comes in handy here as they are taking on a team that’s 11-0 straight up in its last 11 home games. The Knicks have suffered only two losses in their previous seven games and each came by just two points. Therefore, taking the points in Game 3 seems like the best option. Play on NEW YORK AAA | |||||||
05-27-21 | Suns v. Lakers OVER 210 | Top | 95-109 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER The series is knotted at 1-1 after the Lakers took Game 2 by a score of 109-102. We feel sorry for anyone who took the Under in Game 2 as some questionable late fouling by the Lakers, who were ahead(!), resulted in some “needless” free throws that sent the game Over. We’ll be going Over for Game 3 though as the shooting - particularly from three-point range - is likely to improve here in Los Angeles. Through two games, the two teams have combined to shoot a woeful 34 of 113 on three-point attempts. That’s just above 30 percent. For the year, Phoenix makes 37.6% of its threes while the Lakers are at 35.2%. The Over is 10-2 in the Suns last 12 games and in road games, the average number of total points per game scored is 225.4. Overall scoring also rises when the Lakers play at home. They average four more points/game themselves while also giving up about 2.5 points/game more. Look for improved three-point shooting from both sides in Game 3 and this one to go Over a pretty low total. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
05-27-21 | Hurricanes v. Predators +1.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 6* on NASHVILLE +1.5 This may surprise you given that we went so big on Carolina in Game 5. But with none of the last three games decided in regulation and Nashville facing elimination on home ice, we will lay the juice to get the +1.5 in Game 6. The home team is 5-0 in this series. Going back to the regular season, the home team is 11-0 the last 11 meetings! The Predators have scored at least three goals in all four of their home wins this year against the Hurricanes. The ‘Canes are great at home (23-8) but barely above .500 for the year away (16-14). We could see a fourth straight OT game tonight, which is all we’d need as that would assure a one-goal game either way. Given how important home ice advantage has been in this series, we don’t see the Preds losing by more than a goal. It wouldn’t be at all shocking if they won. Play on NASHVILLE +1.5 AAA | |||||||
05-27-21 | Bucks v. Heat +2 | Top | 113-84 | Loss | -114 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MIAMI The Heat find themselves desperately needing to win Game 3, otherwise this series will be just about over. They lost both games in Milwaukee, the first one being close (109-107 in overtime) and the second one being a blowout (132-98). Given that the Heat are down 0-2, we were a bit surprised to see this line “jump the fence” as the Bucks are now favored. It was record-setting shooting for Milwaukee on Monday as they made 22 three-pointers, the most ever by the franchise in a single playoff game. They scored 46 points in the first quarter, 78 in the first half and were ahead at one point by 36. But now the series heads to Miami and the Heat have yet to shoot well. We think they will tonight in Game 3. Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo are averaging just 26 points/game - combined. In the regular season, the duo averaged just over 40 points/game. The Bucks were just 20-16 straight up on the road in the regular season as opposed to 26-10 at home. They are 5-10 against the spread coming off a game where they scored at least 130 points. Miami can’t afford to go down 0-3 as no one has ever come back from that series deficit in the history of the NBA. Play on MIAMI AAA | |||||||
05-27-21 | Indians -172 v. Tigers | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 4 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 7* on CLEVELAND An obvious pitching mismatch here with Shane Bieber of the Indians facing a Tigers team that is last in the American League in runs scored. Detroit did win last night’s game 1-0, but that was only after losing six straight to the Tribe. Going back to the beginning of 2018, Detroit is just 9-31 head to head with Cleveland. That’s not good! The Indians are an impressive 16-7 following a shutout loss the past three seasons, including 4-0 in 2021. Now they hand the ball to Bieber, who has yet to allow more than three earned runs in any of his starts this season and he’s pitched 10 times. Cleveland is 7-3 in those 10 games, the last one being a 5-3 win against Minnesota on Saturday. In seven career starts against the Tigers, Bieber is 5-2 with a 2.45 ERA. One of those two losses actually came on Opening Day despite Bieber having 12 strikeouts and giving up only three runs over six innings. Detroit has scored just two runs in the last two games and is 7-16 in daytime starts this year. Matthew Boyd has a 3-6 career record against the Indians. Play on CLEVELAND AAA | |||||||
05-26-21 | Dodgers -138 v. Astros | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -138 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LAD This will be just the ninth meeting between these teams since the now infamous 2017 World Series. The subsequent three Fall Classics have all involved either the Dodgers or Astros with LA losing the 2018 version, Houston losing in 2019 and then LA winning last season. Five of the last eight meetings have occurred since last summer and the Dodgers have won four of those. Though they lost that ‘17 WS, they are now considered the better team by just about everybody. Houston isn’t bad by any means and could very well end up winning the AL West again this year. But right now the Dodgers are on an 8-game win streak. Houston has lost four straight. It was 9-2 Dodgers on Tuesday even though they had just seven hits. The Astros are reeling, not just because of last night, but also they were swept in Texas over the weekend. Now they must face Trevor Bauer, whose 5-5 team start record is as misleading as it gets. Bauer has gone at least six innings in 9 of his 10 starts and he’s given up no more than two earned runs in nine straight. A 0.93 ERA and 0.77 WHIP over the last three starts is as good as it gets. Bauer is a perfect 8-0 with a 2.90 ERA in his career vs. Houston. Dodgers keep rolling. Play on LA DODGERS AAA | |||||||
05-26-21 | Hawks v. Knicks OVER 212.5 | Top | 92-101 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Atlanta won Game 1 107-105 thanks to a last second Trae Young go-ahead basket. The game just stayed Under the 214.0 point total. Both the Knicks losing and the game staying Under can probably be pinned on the atrocious shooting of Julius Randle, New York’s leading scorer who went 6 of 23 from the field. Our belief is that Randle is going to play better in Game 2. Whether or not that leads to a Knicks victory remains to be seen. Atlanta averages 113.6 points per game. These teams have played four times in 2021. Sunday was the lowest scoring of the four. Each of the three regular season games saw at least 221 total points scored. The highest scoring of the bunch, a 137-127 Knicks win, did go to overtime. But that game was 122-122 at the end of regulation. Before Sunday, the previous five meetings here at Madison Square Garden had all topped the O/U line. This is a low total for the Hawks as the average total for their games this season has been 226.5. The games themselves average 224.9 points/game. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
05-26-21 | Penguins +100 v. Islanders | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PITTSBURGH Pittsburgh finds itself down 3-2 in this best of seven series with the Islanders, so it’s “win or go home” at this point. This has been a closely contested series as four of the five games have been decided by one goal, two of them going past regulation. The Penguins’ problem is that they lost both those OT games. The last game went to double overtime with the Islanders winning 3-2 despite a massive 50-28 edge in shots on goal for the Penguins. It was a game the Pens never trailed in until they lost. If you talk to fans of the team, goalie Tristan Jarry is quickly becoming the “goat” (not to be confused with the G.O.A.T.) as it was his mishandling of the puck that led to the deciding goal in Game 5. But let’s look at what Pittsburgh has done well in this series and that’s average 38.8 shots on goal per game. They are 18-5 in revenge spots this season. Outside of Game 4, they’ve trailed for only 31 seconds in the entire series. One could argue they should be the ones up 3-2 as they’ve arguably looked like the better team most of the way. We believe they will stay alive and force a deciding Game 7. Play on PITTSBURGH AAA | |||||||
05-26-21 | Cardinals v. White Sox -185 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -185 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 7* on the WHITE SOX Carlos Rodon has been excellent this season for Chicago, winning five of his seven starts with a 1.27 ERA and 0.797 WHIP. That he didn’t win the last one (start) is rather criminal as he pitched six scoreless frames and had 13 strikeouts. The White Sox have actually lost the last two times Rodon has pitched, but that’s okay as they’ve also beaten St. Louis two straight in this series. The Cardinals have put up a total of 10 runs in their last five games including only four vs. the White Sox. Rodon should certainly be able to handle them as the White Sox go for the sweep Wednesday afternoon. This season has seen St. Louis go 1-6 as a road underdog of +125 to +175. They’ll start John Gant today. Gant hasn’t been giving up a ton of runs, but what is curious is the fact his WHIP (1.63) is actually higher than his ERA (1.42) on the road. You almost never see that. For the year, his WHIP is 1.56, which really does not correspond with a 2.04 ERA. His last start, which came against last place Pittsburgh, was only the second time in eight tries Gant didn’t walk at least three batters. He’s walked at least five three times and has more walks than strikeouts his previous four starts. Play on CHICAGO AAA | |||||||
05-25-21 | Mavs +6 v. Clippers | Top | 127-121 | Win | 102 | 30 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DALLAS The Mavs seized home court advantage by “stealing” Game 1 in LA, 113-103 as six-point underdogs. Luka Doncic scored 31 points and the key was the Clippers, the league’s top three point shooting team, making only 27.5% from behind the arc. Dallas led most of the game and shot well. While most will be thinking “zig zag theory” here, the gap between the teams simply isn’t as wide as the spread suggests. The Clippers have not won a game in 10 days and are just 3-9 ATS their previous 12 games. They’ve lost three of the four games to Dallas this year including the infamous 51-point loss two days after Christmas. All three Mavericks wins have been by 10 or more points. The Clippers have a lot of pressure on them heading into this postseason and we’re not convinced they are capable of living up to the hype. Dallas is a good team that has lost just three times in its last 13 games, one of those the inconsequential final regular season game. Grab the points in this one. Play on DALLAS AAA | |||||||
05-25-21 | Mavs v. Clippers UNDER 216 | Top | 127-121 | Loss | -106 | 30 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER We won with the Under in Game 1 of this best of seven series, but it’s time to go Over in Game 2. The Clippers have now gone Under in 11 of the last 13 games, but they are going to shoot the ball better tonight compared to Game 1. How could they not? They were only 11 of 40 from three-point range in that first game and this was the #1 three-point shooting team in the league in the regular season. Leonard and George were a combined 3 of 14 from downtown. Maybe Dallas doesn’t match its shooting from the first game, but they should shoot the ball well again. Game 1 was 60-55 at half and on pace to go Over. The Over is still 6-1 in the Mavericks last seven road games. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
05-25-21 | Predators v. Hurricanes -190 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 7* on CAROLINA Carolina has “fooled around” with Nashville too much and now finds this series deadlocked at two games apiece. The “problem” is they’ve run into a hot goaltender in Juuse Saros, who has stopped 171 of the 184 shots he’s faced. Still those 184 shots through four games are the most any goalie has seen in these playoffs. Eventually, the Hurricanes are going to breakthrough and don’t be surprised if it comes via the power play where they’re just 2 for 14 so far in the series. This was a team that was second in the league in converting with the man advantage (25.6%) during the regular season. It was a regular season that saw them win the Central Division with 80 points. After losing both games in Nashville, the series is now back in Raleigh where the ‘Canes have suffered just three regulation losses all season. They won the first two games here - 5-2 and 3-0. Both losses in Nashville were double overtime games. The Predators have lost seven of their last eight games here. All signs point to the favorite taking Game 5. Play on CAROLINA AAA | |||||||
05-25-21 | Braves -105 v. Red Sox | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ATLANTA In their previous series, Atlanta dropped the opener. They responded by bludgeoning the Pirates over the next three games, outscoring them 33-3. We had the Braves in two of those three wins, including 20-1 on Friday. As they move to face Boston on Tuesday, we like this series opener to go their way. It’s a bit telling that they’d be favored on the road against the team that leads the AL East. But let’s not forget the Braves are the ones favored to win the NL East this year. No team in baseball has hit more home runs this year than has Atlanta and 15 of the 78 came in the last series. The Red Sox are no slouches at the plate either, but be wary of Garrett Richards and his 7.10 ERA at Fenway. Richards also has a 2.131 WHIP in those three home starts. His work has improved in May, but Richards has also still walked seven batters in his last two starts. We’ll side with Charlie Morton, who is 6-1 in his career against Boston. The Braves are liable to snap a six-game losing streak in Interleague Play. Play on ATLANTA AAA | |||||||
05-25-21 | Reds v. Nationals -178 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -178 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WASHINGTON We like Max Scherzer and the Nationals to beat the Reds today. Scherzer has dominated Cincinnati the last five times he’s faced them, going 5-0 with a 1.06 ERA. Just as impressive has been his recent form as it’s a 1.56 ERA and 0.87 WHIP from his last three starts. Washington is 4-0 when Scherzer starts at home and a 0.68 WHIP from the pitcher is obviously a big reason for that. Cincinnati hasn’t gotten much good pitching from anybody this year and the last time they sent out Tyler Mahle, he gave up seven runs in two innings. Mahle has faced the Nationals twice before and his ERA in those two starts is 12.15. Not only is it a significant pitching mismatch for the home team Tuesday, but they are also coming off a three-game sweep of Baltimore over the weekend. Cincinnati is 1-6 its last seven and giving up 7.1 runs per game in that stretch. They’ve been outscored 50-25 in those seven games. Play on WASHINGTON AAA | |||||||
05-24-21 | Wild v. Golden Knights -177 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -177 | 15 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 7* on VEGAS Vegas can end this series tonight and set up a second round showdown with Colorado. They’re back home - where they’ve lost only eight times all season. One of those was Game 1 to Minnesota, but the Golden Knights have stormed back by taking three straight, the last two on the road, and they’ve increased the margin of victory in every game. They won 3-1 in Game 2, 5-2 in Game 3 and 4-0 in Game 4. Now we don’t think they’re going to win by five goals tonight. Vegas was a little lucky to win the last game 4-0 seeing as how they only had 18 shots on goal. Improving on that kind of shooting percentage will be difficult, but you can also look for them to get more shots on goal here. They are still averaging more shots per game in the series than the Wild. Goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury seems to be in top form with a .966 save percentage and 0.99 goals against average. Minnesota has scored just four goals in the four games. Play on VEGAS AAA | |||||||
05-24-21 | Mariners v. A's -158 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -158 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OAKLAND Oakland may have missed out on its attempt to sweep the Angels Sunday, but their lead in the AL West has grown to 1.5 games thanks to the Astros getting swept over the weekend. The A’s have a very favorable matchup to start the week as they face Seattle, losers of six in a row. The Mariners had it handed to them over the weekend in San Diego where they were outscored 31-7 in the three games. Just as embarrassing was being swept at home by Detroit in the previous series. One of those three games saw them get no-hit. The Mariners are batting just .199 AS A TEAM this season. They are quite bad and on the road they’re getting outscored by almost two full runs per contest. Frankie Montas has allowed three runs or less each of his previous five starts for Oakland, so he’s likely to pitch well tonight. Yusei Kikuchi is working on a string of four straight quality starts for Seattle, but how much support will he get here? The answer to that question is “not much.” It’s been nine days since the M’s scored more than four runs in a game. Play on OAKLAND AAA | |||||||
05-24-21 | Heat +5 v. Bucks | Top | 98-132 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MIAMI Both the Heat and Bucks hope for improved shooting in Game 2. From the Heat point of view, that may sound a little strange seeing as they connected on a franchise record 20 three-pointers in Game 1. But they were just 32.7% from the floor inside the arc and both Bam Adebayo (4 of 15) and Jimmy Butler (4 of 22) were not sharp. Miami was our 10* Game of the Month in Game 1, so we were quite happy with the final result. We’ll take them again here as they never trailed by more than eight points on Saturday and there’s no reason to believe they will again tonight. Remember that they eliminated the Bucks from last year’s playoffs. They seem to know how to defend Giannis Antetokounmpo, who was only 10 of 27 in Game 1. The Heat are 16-5 ATS their previous 21 playoff games including 5-0 ATS in the first round. They’ve won 8 of their last 11 overall and while two of the losses were to Milwaukee, one of them didn’t matter and the other went to overtime. The Bucks are now 1-7 ATS their last eight games. Play on MIAMI AAA | |||||||
05-24-21 | Heat v. Bucks UNDER 222.5 | Top | 98-132 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Even with overtime, these teams only combined for 216 points in Game 1. Milwaukee was horrendous from three-point range, missing 26 of its 31 attempts. But they still won 109-107. Miami was our 10* Game of the Month, so the ATS result was “A-ok” on this end. We’re less bullish on the Heat for Game 2. But what we do like is the Under. The Under is 3-0 the last three meetings. While the Bucks made only five three pointers in Game 1, the Heat made a franchise record 20. They won’t be matching that in Game 2 and what’s troubling is they only made 32.7% from two point range. They finished with only 24 points in the paint. Jimmy Butler shot 4 of 22 in the game. Bam Adebayo wasn’t much better, going 4 of 15 and finishing with only nine points. On the other side of the coin, the Heat did defend Giannis Antetokounmpo well. That’s similar to last postseason when they upset the Bucks. Antetokounmpo did score 26 points to go along with 18 rebounds, but on 10 of 27 shooting. The Under is 6-2 in the Bucks last eight home games. The Under is also 6-2 the Heat’s last eight as a road underdog. Play on UNDER AAA | |||||||
05-23-21 | Grizzlies +9 v. Jazz | Top | 112-109 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MEMPHIS Not many are giving Memphis a chance in Game 1, let alone the series. But coming off two wins in the first ever play-in tournament, maybe they should. The Grizzlies’ narrow wins over San Antonio and Golden State are a little misleading in the sense they led most of the way in both games. Not saying it’s going to be a wire to wire win here in Salt Lake City, but we do like the Grizzlies to keep it close. It will be interesting to observe the “rest vs. rust” for the Jazz, who have not played in a week. The fact Memphis had to win twice to get here isn’t that big of a disadvantage as teams normally play more than twice in a six day span. Of the three times these teams played in the regular season, two were decided by four points or less. The exception was the second game, which was a back to back on the road. Utah has had three or more days rest for only one game all season and they didn’t cover the spread in it. Memphis is 23-14 ATS in road games and is a top six team defensively in points per possessions allowed. Grab the points. Play on MEMPHIS AAA | |||||||
05-23-21 | Bruins v. Capitals OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER After three one-goal games to open the series, Boston won in commanding 4-1 fashion in Game 4 to take a 3-1 series lead. They can knock the Capitals out on Sunday with a fourth straight win. We like the Over in Game 5 as there have been at least five goals scored in every game so far with a series-high seven scored in Game 2. Obviously, we need more than five to cash this bet. We had the Over in Game 2 after winning with the Under in Game 1. While four of Game 4’s five goals came on the power play, Boston did get off 37 shots. It was noted just about everywhere how “lifeless” Washington seemed at the start of Game 4. We expect more spirited play tonight with the season on the line and all their skaters back and healthy. Having averaged 32 shots per through the first four games, you’d think the Caps would be averaging more than 2.2 goals per game. Again, look for them to break through in the scoring department. Boston is averaging 38.5 shots per game in the series and should have no trouble scoring either. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
05-23-21 | Pirates v. Braves -181 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 7* on ATLANTA Since taking the series opener on Thursday, things have gone south fast for the Pirates. It started with what was a memorable play for us - the Braves on Friday - which ended up as a 20-1 win! You obviously can’t expect them all to be that easy, but the Braves won again Saturday, this time 6-1. Might as well take them again Sunday as the Pirates are very bad and showing little signs of “life.” Their run differential (-72) is easily baseball’s worst and they’ve dropped five of the six games. While the singular 20-1 loss is largely responsible for them having the worst run differential in the sport, note that no other National League team is worse than -40. Only two are -30 or worse. The Braves are starting to make a move over in the East where they are easily their division’s top offensive team. Expect them to continue flourishing at the plate today against Pirates starter JT Brubaker, who has allowed at least one HR in five straight starts. Brubaker was tagged for five runs total in his last start. Max Fried starts for Atlanta and he has looked solid lately, giving up just one run in each of his last three trips to the mound. No brainer here. Play on ATLANTA AAA | |||||||
05-22-21 | Rays v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Not sure if you can call the AL East the “best” division in baseball right now (NL West?), but it is the deepest as every team besides Baltimore has legit postseason aspirations. Just look at Toronto, who has a +37 run differential, but is now stuck in fourth place after losing three straight games. The most recent loss was 9-7 to Tampa Bay last night, a game that went 12 innings. Now six of those 16 runs did get scored in the 12th. Francisco Mejia’s grand slam was the difference maker for the Rays in the top half of the frame and the two runs Toronto scored in the bottom half proved inconsequential. But even before extras, the teams had comfortably gone Over the total (which was only 7.0) last night. We think this one goes Over too as Tampa Bay’s lineup is just on fire right now, a big reason why they’ve won eight in a row. They’ve put up an average of 10.0 runs their last six games, scoring at least seven every time. Today, they go against Robbie Ray. Ray has a 5.03 ERA in his previous three starts. Rookie Shane McClanahan will start for the Rays and he’s off his worst start so far. He was tagged for four runs by the Mets last week. So the Blue Jays should again put some runs on the board, something they’ve had no problem doing in their temporary home of Dunedin where they are averaging 6.2 runs/game. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
05-22-21 | Canadiens v. Maple Leafs -181 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TORONTO Maple Leafs fans have not seen their team win a playoff series since 2004. There have been five first round exits since then. So there’s a lot of uneasiness right now after a rather shocking 2-1 loss to Montreal in Game 1. Toronto won the North and was very much the best team in the division. But things can change quickly in the playoffs and John Tavares is out “indefinitely” after being taken off on a stretcher Thursday. Nevertheless, we expect the Leafs will bounce back and win Game 2. One one time this season have the Leafs lost more than three in a row. Having also dropped their final two regular season games, that’s the position they find themselves in tonight. They are 17-4 playing with revenge and 10-1 if at home and playing with revenge. Play on TORONTO AAA | |||||||
05-22-21 | Mavs v. Clippers UNDER 220.5 | Top | 113-103 | Win | 100 | 70 h 43 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER This is a rematch from last year’s first round, a series won by the Clippers in six games. But the Mavs did take this year’s regular season series 2-1. One of the two wins was by 51 points, a game they led 77-27 at halftime. But that was in December. This is May. All three of those regular season meetings did go Under and that’s how we see this one shaking out. Dallas did go Over in its last five regular season games. But most of those were against non-playoff teams. The Clippers, who like the Mavs rested starters late in the year, had gone Under 10 straight times before going Over in their last two games. They are a good defensive team that gives up only 107.8 points/game. But both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George haven’t played in eight days. Might they be rusty? The Mavs are 20-6 Under their last 26 games as an underdog and 11-1 Under when facing an opponent whose win percentage is .600 or greater. The Clippers have not gone Over in any of their last eight games as a playoff favorite. Play on UNDER AAA | |||||||
05-22-21 | Astros -176 v. Rangers | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -176 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 7* on HOUSTON After sweeping a four-game series from the Rangers last weekend, Houston lost to them (in extra innings) Friday. The 10th inning started well enough for the Astros as they put a run on the board via a throwing error. But it wasn’t to be as the Rangers’ Adolis Garcia hit a 3-run walkoff in the bottom half of the inning. With that loss “out of the way” (can’t beat Texas every game), we expect the Astros to do quite well for themselves Saturday. They’ve got Lance McCullers going and they have won each of the last four times he’s pitched. McCullers has delivered five quality starts in a row, lasting a total of 33 innings while giving up only six runs (1.64 ERA). Texas does not exactly have a high-powered lineup and opponents are batting just .173 against McCullers this season, the second lowest average allowed by an AL pitcher. In 10 career starts vs. the Rangers, there have been three times where McCullers didn’t allow any runs. The Rangers send out Jordan Lyles, who has been better of late but still has an 8.47 ERA here at home. Texas is a horrible 8-22 vs. righties. Houston is clearly the cream of the crop in the AL West and will prove that again this afternoon. Play on HOUSTON AAA | |||||||
05-22-21 | Heat +5 v. Bucks | Top | 107-109 | Win | 100 | 67 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI Milwaukee will obviously be motivated based on last year’s playoff exit at the hands of Miami. But the Bucks sure chose a tough potential path to make it to the NBA Finals. They may have to go through the Heat, Nets and Sixers to get there. They’ve infamously flamed out of the playoffs earlier than expected the last two years. There’s a lot of pressure on star player Giannis Antetokounmpo coming into this series. The Heat are once again peaking at the right time. They won 12 of their final 16 regular season games to move up to the six seed. Yes, one of the losses did come to the Bucks. But now it’s the playoffs and that’s what this team (meaning the Heat) are built for. They have a top 10 defense and held Milwaukee to 32.7% shooting on three-point attempts in last year’s series. They also have a blueprint to stop Giannis. Eric Spoelstra really outcoached Mike Budenholzer last year. Miami is 15-5 ATS L20 playoff games. The reason they got off to the slow start this year was likely to do to such a short period of time off between seasons. Jimmy Butler’s numbers ended up being here this year compared to last. He and Bam Adebayo are the keys, but we also think some of the Heat’s perimeter shooters are going to knock down more threes than usual. Tyler Herro has been cold since returning from injury. That can change in a hurry. The Bucks have only covered one of their last seven games. Play on MIAMI AAA | |||||||
05-21-21 | Jets v. Oilers -165 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -165 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
This is an 8* on EDMONTON Edmonton can obviously not afford to fall into an 0-2 hole in the series and we don’t expect them to. The Oilers were actually beaten fairly soundly in Game 1, losing 4-1 to a Jets team they’d beaten in seven of nine regular season matchups. Winnipeg had only 22 shots on goal the entire game, so the fact they got four goals should be considered very fortunate. Winnipeg’s regular season ended with nine losses in the last 12 games and two of the three wins came against Calgary and Vancouver, the North Division’s non-playoff teams. Edmonton dropped its regular season finale, a meaningless affair with Vancouver, so they are now coming off consecutive losses for the first time in quite a while. March was the last time the Oilers lost two straight. Being off two straight losses is a situation that’s treated the Oilers pretty well in 2020-21. They are 4-1 when that’s the case. The team’s only three game losing streak this year came at the start of March when they dropped three straight games to the first place Maple Leafs. Connor McDavid won’t let his team lose a second straight home game. Play on EDMONTON AAA | |||||||
05-21-21 | Grizzlies v. Warriors -189 | Top | 117-112 | Loss | -189 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 7* on GOLDEN STATE (MONEY LINE) Thanks to LeBron James, Golden State came up just short in its play-in matchup with the Lakers, losing 103-100. They did cover though, as 5.5 point underdogs, which was a nice consolation for us as we took them with the points. With a second opportunity to make the playoffs, this time as an 8-seed, we expect the Warriors to win Friday against Memphis. The Grizzlies held on for a narrow 100-96 win over San Antonio to get here. They have the Spurs’ dreadful shooting to thank for that as San Antonio made only 35.1% of its field goal attempts on Wednesday. Steph Curry and the Warriors will not be so kind. When these teams played in the regular season finale, Curry went off for 46 points. Golden State won 113-101, which is why they got two tries to get into the playoffs. The Warriors are 25-11 SU at home this season and 23-13 ATS. Before losing the last game, they’d won six in a row overall and Wednesday marked just the second loss in their last 10 games. Gotta go with Curry to lead his team to the postseason, right? Play on GOLDEN STATE (ML) AAA | |||||||
05-21-21 | Pirates v. Braves -176 | Top | 1-20 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 7* on ATLANTA The Braves suffered a surprising 6-4 loss to the Pirates last night. They were big favorites on the money line and at home. Pittsburgh came in as losers of three straight and owns the worst run differential in the National League. The game went 10 innings and the fact Atlanta could only score one run after the second inning is a bit of a concern. But, at the end of the day, the Braves are simply the better team here and we cannot see them losing two straight to such lowly opposition. The Pirates have put together back to back wins just one time in May. This is going to be a bad ball club this year and everyone knows it. Atlanta expects to win the NL East, which is looking very wide open in 2021. Coming into this series, the Braves had won 10 of 13 vs. Pittsburgh including the last six at home. Starter Ian Anderson has 47 strikeouts in 45 innings this season. Four of his last five starts have been quality, meaning he’s gone at least six innings while allowing three or less runs. He allowed one run on two hits last time out. Tyler Anderson starts for the visiting team and while he’s having a fairly successful season, he did allow two home runs in his last start. Pittsburgh came into the series averaging 3.1 runs/game on the road. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ricky Tran | $868 |
Will Rogers | $491 |
William Burns | $415 |
Nick Parsons | $345 |
Joseph D'Amico | $282 |
Ross Benjamin | $255 |
Sean Murphy | $226 |
Tom Macrina | $149 |
Joey Tron | $113 |
ProSportsPicks | $107 |