Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
04-05-18 | Nets +8.5 v. Bucks | Top | 119-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
Unlike other lottery teams, the Nets have no incentive to tank being without a No. 1 draft pick. That usually ensures a good effort from the Nets. It didn't happen in their last game, tnough. Brooklyn was blown out by sizzling Philadelphia, 121-95. Look for a much stronger game from the Nets following that embarrassing road loss. Going back to mid-March, the Nets would be 8-2 ATS if given more than seve points. Brooklyn has covered seven of its past eight away matchups. The Bucks are in letdown mode off a highly-satisfying home victory against the Celtics two days ago and having just clinched a playoff spot when the Pistons lost last night. Now that the Bucks are officially in the playoffs, they might reduce the minutes of their starters to get them ready for the post-season. That could mean Giannis Antetokounmpo, who has been dealing with assorted minor injuries. The spot is dangerous for the Bucks and they have not been good in this type of role either. Milwaukee is 2-11 in its last 13 home games and 2-7 ATS the past nine times hosting a sub .500 opponent. | |||||||
04-05-18 | Bruins v. Panthers UNDER 6 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
Florida is trying its best to keep alive its playoff hopes. Thanks to stellar goaltending from Roberto Luongo, the Panthers held off Nashville, 2-1, at home on Tuesday. The Panthers are 12-4-1 to the Under in their last 17 home games. This marks the Panthers' third game in four days and fourth in six so look for a tight-checking, conservative game from Florida. Boston was shut out in its last two games by Tampa Bay two days ago. The Lightning had allowed at least three goals per game in six of its last seven games previous to that. Tuukka Rask has been on his game for Boston. He had surrendered two goals or fewer in four straight games before yielding four to the Lightning, the highest-scoring team in the league. Florida ranks 15th in scoring. The Panthers haven't broken the three-goal barrier in their last six games. I see Rask coming back with a strong performance against a much weaker offense than he last faced. The Under has cashed the past four times these teams have met in Florida. Boston and Florida play again Sunday in a make-up game from Jan. 4. So neither team likely will want to show too much with such a short turnaround before playing each other again, which is another plus for the Under. | |||||||
04-05-18 | Diamondbacks v. Cardinals OVER 7.5 | 3-1 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 55 m | Show | |
Arizona has some outstanding hitters. The Diamondbacks are fifth in runs. St. Louis is underrated offensively. The Cardinals rank No. 2 in homers. The Cardinals have power from top to bottom as evidenced by eight different players hitting at least one home run this season. The pitching matchup is Robbie Ray versus Adam Wainwright. Ray is off a bad first outing giving up six earned runs in five innings, including three homers, against the Rockies. Ray has a 6.52 ERA in three lifetime starts against the Cardinals. Ray is being priced like an elite pitcher with this low total. He's not. Ray is a big strikeout pitcher, but he's not "A" level. Wainwright is getting the start as more of a ceremonial gesture since this is the Cardinals' first home game of the season. The 36-year-old likely is washed-up. He had a 5.11 earned run average and 1.50 WHIP last season. The weather is good for the hitters with temperatures in the mid-to-high 50's and wind blowing out to left at 12-14, which is particularly bad news for Ray being a lefty. | |||||||
04-04-18 | Senators v. Sabres OVER 5.5 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 4 h 57 m | Show | |
Ottawa is 1-8 in its last nine games. Buffalo is 3-8 in its last 11 games. Both teams are frustrated with nothing to play for so expect a wide-open game. The Sabres have permitted at least three goals in nine of their last 10 games. They are going with backup Chad Johnson in goal. He's given up an average of four goals during his past three starts. Buffalo, though, should do a lot of scoring damage against the Senators' 30th-ranked defense. The Sabres are averaging 3.7 goals in their last four games. | |||||||
04-04-18 | Dodgers -118 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -118 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
I like the Dodgers to salvage the final game of this series against the Diamondbacks after losing with Clayton Kershaw last night. Arizona suffered a key loss in that game, though, with third baseman Jake Lamb suffering a shoulder injury. I'm a fan of Dodgers starter Alex Wood. Not so with Arizona starter Patrick Corbin. Wood was dominant last season going 16-3 with a 2.72 ERA holding opposing batters to a .217 average. Wood opened this season in great style permitting only one hit in eight scorelessinnings against the Giants this past Friday. He was 3-0 with a 2.57 ERA in three starts versus Arizona last season with 23 strikeouts in 21 innings. Corbin has shown flashes, but never really has proven he can be trusted. The southpaw has struggled versus the Dodgers with a 3-9 lifetime mark and 4.42 ERA in 16 appearances, including 14 starts. He had a 5.06 ERA in two starts against the Dodgers last season. LA is 9-3 in Wood's past 12 away outings and has won 14 of the past 18 times when drawing a lefty starter on the road. | |||||||
04-03-18 | Spurs -118 v. Clippers | 110-113 | Loss | -118 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
The Spurs are 2-0 versus the Clippers this season having won by an average of 15.5 points. Now the Spurs are playing better than ever going 8-2 SU and ATS in their last 10 games. San Antonio's last victory came against the Rockets, perhaps the best team in the NBA, by a 100-83 count this past Sunday. LaMarcus Aldridge is having a tremendous season. But a big takeaway from the Rockets game was how well Rudy Gay played for San Antonio. Gay is a huge plus if healthy. The Clippers are in must-win mode. The Spurs, though, are playing hard for playoff seeding. The Clippers always have been fragile mentally and they could be through after blowing a 16-point lead at home in their last game, a 111-104 loss to the Pacers this past Sunday. That dropped the Clippers' home ATS mark to 4-10 in their last 14 games at Staples Center. Much is made of the Spurs not having Kawhi Leonard. However, the Clippers have had a cluster injury problem at guard. They are down Patrick Beverley, Avery Bradley, Milos Teodosic and Jawun Evans. Teodosic is a very underrated player. | |||||||
04-03-18 | Indians +129 v. Angels | 2-13 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 4 m | Show | |
The Indians have beaten the Angels 16 of the past 17 times, including the last 12. I'm going to ride that streak especially since the Indians are underdogs. The oddsmaker is putting too much stock in Garrett Richards, who remains on the comeback trail. Richards has made just 12 starts the past two seasons due to injuries. Richards wasn't sharp in his opener against the A's, a much inferior team compared to the Indians. Richards has a 4.40 career ERA against the Indians in 14 1/3 innings. Cleveland may be the best team in baseball. The Indians are going with Josh Tomlin, who draws very little respect. Tomlin, though, doesn't walk batters and is plus 11 wins during his career with the Indians. He's not sexy, but he is reliable. That's all the Indians need since they possess the much stronger bullpen. | |||||||
04-03-18 | Golden Knights v. Canucks +160 | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
The expansion Golden Knights have been the story of the year in the NHL becoming the first NHL expansion team to reach the playoffs. Las Vegas accomplished this in style clinching the Pacific Division in their last game, a home victory against San Jose this past Saturday. So not only is this a letdown spot for the Golden Knights, who could be resting players, but it's an emotional situation for the home 'dog Canucks. Vancouver is out of the playoffs. But to their credit, the Canucks continue to play hard. They've won three in a row - all at home. Now the Canucks should be super psyched for tonight's game because it's the first game following yesterday's announcement that Daniel and Henrik Sedin are going to retire at the end of the season. Vancouver's players should be highly-charged because of this with a large crowd expected in an electric type atmosphere for the much revered Sedin twins. Las Vegas hasn't been playing that well either going a mediocre 3-3 in its last six games. The Golden Knights have been without injured David Perron and Reilly Smith. Those are the Golden Knights' third and fourth-leading point producers, respectively. | |||||||
04-03-18 | Celtics +2 v. Bucks | 102-106 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
The Celtics own the top point spread mark in the NBA. Boston has won six in a row and is just two games behind Toronto for the No. 1 seed in the East after an impressive 110-99 home win against the Raptors this past Saturday. Boston has been idle since that victory while the Bucks are playing for the fourth time in six days. This is the Bucks' first game back home after being on the West Coast for four games. That trip finished Sunday night. The Celtics are without Kyrie Irving. But they've been getting strong play from Jayston Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Terry Rozier. The Celtics have a deep bench and are much better coached than Milwaukee. The Bucks have one of the weak home court floors. Milwaukee has covered only 28 percent of its last 31 games at Bradley Center. | |||||||
04-03-18 | Cardinals v. Brewers -120 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
The price is right to back the Brewers, who have made themselves a strong playoff contender. Milwaukee is home and has its best starting pitcher going, Chase Anderson. Anderson still is a bit below the radar. He's a late bloomer who broke through last season going 12-4 with a 2.74 ERA. This includes a 2-0 mark and 3.04 ERA in four starts versus the Cardinals. Anderson was sharp against the Padres in his first start this season throwing six scoreless innings with six strikeouts and only one hit allowed. The Cardinals are countering with righty Jack Flaherty, their No. 5 starter who soon could be departing back to the minors when Adam Wainwright is ready to pitch. Flaherty likely needs more seasoning. He had a 4.50 ERA in five spring training outings. The Brewers got a look at him late last season getting to Flaherty for four fours on five hits in five innings on Oct. 1. The Brewers are 13-5 in their last 18 games versus righty starters going back to last season. | |||||||
04-02-18 | Avalanche v. Kings -1.5 | 1-3 | Win | 167 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
The Kings are trying to hold off the Avalanche for the first wild-card spot in the West. They are in a great spot to succeed. LA has been idle since losing a 2-1 road game to the Ducks this past Friday. The Avalanche carries a much higher fatigue rating in action for the third time in four days and second time in two days after suffering a tough 4-3 overtime road loss to the Ducks last night. Colorado relies on its power play unit a lot. However, the Kings have the highest percentage rating of killing penalties. They haven't allowed a power play goal during their last eight games spanning 20 power play attempts. The Avalanche has lost in five of their last six visits to LA. | |||||||
04-02-18 | Indians -113 v. Angels | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show | |
It's no secret why the Indians have defeated the Angels 11 times in a row and 15 of the last 16. The Indians almost always have the superior pitcher going, have a stronger offense and the better bullpen. That's the case again in this matchup where the price is low enough to get involved with Cleveland. I like to target promising pitchers with upside who are below the radar where you don't have to pay an unfair price to back them. Mike Clevinger fits that description. Clevinger was outstanding on the road last season going 7-2 with a 2.26 ERA. He pitches with extra motivation against the Angels, the team where he spent his first three years after being drafted in 2011. Clevinger came on very strong at the end of last season posting a sub-1.00 ERA during his last 27 1/3 innings. The Angels' closer situation is unsettled and they have JC Ramirez starting. Ramirez is a borderline starter who doesn't have Clevinger's skill and talent set. Ramirez is on the comeback trail from an elbow injury that cost him the final six weeks of last year. He had a 5.40 ERA during spring training. | |||||||
04-02-18 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks +103 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 103 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
Fear not the Dodgers when they play the Diamondbacks during the regular season. Arizona has won the last six times and the games haven't been close with the Diamondbacks outscoring LA by 27 runs during this span. I see the Diamondbacks making it seven straight regular season wins against the Dodgers today in a pitching matchup of lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu versus Taijuan Walker. Ryu is the Dodgers' No. 5 starter, who is much more effective whe pitching at Dodger Stadium. LA has lost in 11 of his last 15 road starts. Arizona is one of the better teams in the NL. Ryu is 1-10 during his last 11 road outings versus above .500 teams. The Diamondbacks, with Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Polllock, are very tough against southpaws. Arizona was 25-17 versus lefties last season and already 1-0 this year. The Diamondbacks drew Colorado lefty Tyler Anderson two games ago and smashed him for seven runs in 2 1/3 innings. Walker not only is a decent pitcher, but he is a breakout candidate having not reached his full potential yet. He posted a 3.32 ERA during the second half last season and was 2-0 with a 3.24 ERA in three regular season starts against the Dodgers last year. Ryu was 0-1 in two starts against Arizona last season. He allowed 19 baserunners in 10 innings and surrendered three homers during his lone Chase Field appearance last year. The Diamondbacks were idle on Sunday while the Dodgers had to play in the Sunday night game. So the scheduling dynamics are on Arizona's side. | |||||||
04-01-18 | Bucks v. Nuggets -4 | 125-128 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
Milwaukee and Denver each are 41-35. The Nuggets, though, have the disadvantage of being in the Western Conference so they are two games out of the last playoff spot. This is must-win time for them. Denver is much stronger at home going 27-10 at Pepsi Center compared to 14-25 on the road. The Bucks are five games up on the Pistons for the last spot in the Eastern Conference. I don't see the Bucks being as intense as the Nuggets here. This the Bucks' fourth road game in six days and third game in four days. They are coming off consecutive victores versus the Warriors and Lakers in overtime. The Bucks return home after this game so a letdown very much could be in store. The Bucks are just 7-14 ATS in their last 21 games despite winning their last two games. | |||||||
04-01-18 | Pistons -108 v. Nets | Top | 108-96 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
The Pistons aren't dead yet. Detroit is 6-1 in its last seven games with a four-game win streak. The Pistons are a long shot to make the postseason, but they still are alive - unless they lose this game. I don't see that happening. Blake Griffin is out, but Reggie Jackson has returned from injury helping to breath life into Detroit. Andre Drummond is in line for a monster game. He's averaging 15.3 points and 20 rebounds per game in three games against the Nets this season. The Nets allowed Dwight Howard to produce 32 points and 30 rebounds against them less than two weeks ago. The Nets just upset the Heat, 110-109, in overtime on the road last night for their second consecutive victory. They haven't won three games in a row all season. The Nets exerted tremendous energy in coming back from 14 points down to stun the Heat. Detroit also played last night, defeating the Knicks. So it's the Pistons who actually have the shorter distance to travel than the Nets, who are flying in from South Florida. | |||||||
04-01-18 | Pacers v. Clippers UNDER 213.5 | 111-104 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 57 m | Show | |
Both teams are involved in playoff seeding so there should be defensive intensity. Note the daytime start so that's another plus for the Under. Although this is a non-conference matchup, these two teams just played one another eight days ago. The Pacers won 109-104. So there is some familiarity. The Clippers have showed defensive improvement lately giving up an average of 102 points in their last four games. The Pacers are perceived by some as a high scoring team because of Victor Oladipo. But they actually are a below-averaging scoring club and have played at the slowest tempo in the league during the past three weeks. | |||||||
04-01-18 | Cardinals -135 v. Mets | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 56 m | Show | |
It's just the start of the season, but already the Cardinals are frustrated losing their first two games to the Mets. St. Louis is the better team and the Cardinals have the superior starting pitcher going here. So I see them avoiding a sweep. Luke Weaver showed a lot of promise last season and he was impressive during spring training allowing only one run in 16 1/3 innings with 19 strikeouts while holding batters to a .113 average. The Mets have never faced Weaver giving him the element of surprise. The Cardinals go from seeing Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom to facing Steven Matz here. Matz wasn't healthy last season posting a 2-7 mark and 6.08 ERA in 13 starts. Matz is supposed to be past his elbow injuries, but he wasn't sharp in spring training with a 6.30 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. Matz went against the Cardinals once last season and allowed five runs on seven hits in 4 1/3 innings on July 9. | |||||||
03-31-18 | Warriors -8.5 v. Kings | Top | 112-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
Can the Kings actually win a season series against the Warriors having already defeated Golden State twice at Oracle Arena? No, of course not. Golden State is in an excellent spot to put a much needed halt to its three-game losing streak. The Warriors aren't at full strength, but they do have Kevin Durant and Dramond Green back for sure. The Warriors should have a sense of urgency not only to avenge two surprising home losses to the Kings, but to start getting things right to defend their world title with the playoffs coming up in a couple of weeks. It's easy to spotlight how bad the Warriors have been missing Stephen Curry, but the Kings are playing bad, too, losing five of their last six. They've been held to 98 or fewer points in five of their last seven games. The Warriors rank third in defensive field goal percentage. They not only have the two superstars, but also a much stronger bench. | |||||||
03-31-18 | Panthers v. Bruins UNDER 6 | 1-5 | Push | 0 | 5 h 12 m | Show | |
Look for an intense, defensive matchup as not only is this an important game for both teams, but it's the first of three times Florida and Boston will play during the final nine days of the regular season. So hard-hitting and tight forechecking should get established right away. The Panthers shut out the Bruins, 3-0, in the first meeting this season on March 15. The Panthers carry a fatigue rating playing for the third time in four days. So they are likely to keep the pace slow. This is a very early start time, too. The Under has cashed seven of the last nine times the Panthers have played in this type of situation. Boston has held four of its last five opponents to two goals or fewer. Florida has failed to score more than three goals in eight of its last 10 games. The series also has an Under bias in Boston with the Under only winning in three of the last 17 matchups played there between the two teams. | |||||||
03-30-18 | Kings v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
Kings at Ducks Under 5 1/2 minus $1.40 Not only is this a strong rivalry matchup, but it's critical to each team's playoff chances. So look for playoff-type intensity here with the loser giving up two points, which makes it critical that each team at least keep the game tied through regulation. I'm expecting a conservative, well-defended matchup with strong net play. The Kings defeated the Coyotes, 4-2, at home last night scoring a late empty net goal to make the final a two-goal difference. The Kings rested goalie Jonathan Quick in that game so Quick could be in peak condition for this more crucial matchup. LA hasn't given up more than three goals during its last eight games. The Kings aren't going to push the puck in up-tempo fashion after playing last night. The Under is 17-6-6 the past 29 times the Kings have played without rest. The Ducks are sure to be fired-up having had three days to stew about an embarrassing 4-1 loss to the Canucks. | |||||||
03-30-18 | Cubs -1.5 v. Marlins | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -130 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
The Marlins aren't just bad. They are bad enough to be in the argument of being the worst team in the decade. The oddsmaker knows this. That's why the price is so high to fade the Marlins. The best and safest way to protect the bankroll while still going against the Marlins is backing the Cubs on the run line. Kyle Hendricks is one of the most reliable starters in baseball. He allowed one or fewer runs in eight of his last 16 starts in 2017. His career ERA is 2.94. The Marlins gutted their offense. The Cubs should do enormous damage against Caleb Smith. The rookie lefty is a fill-in for injured Dan Straily. Nothing indicates Smith is ready to pitch in the majors especially facing such a challenging lineup that has tremendous right-handed power. The Cubs were 21-14 versus lefty starters last season. They toyed with the Marlins on Thursday before putting them away, 8-4. It should be the same story today with the Cubs easily winning by multiple runs. | |||||||
03-29-18 | Bucks v. Warriors -4.5 | Top | 116-107 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
After consectuive home losses to the Jazz and Pacers, I see the Warriors bouncing back today against the underacheiving, complacent Bucks. The Warriors have been losing because of being short-handed. That changes here with the return of superstar Kevin Durant and All-Star Draymond Green. The Bucks are safetly in front of the Pistons by five games for the last playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. The Bucks aren't playing that well. They are 2-3 in their last five games with one of the victories coming against the tanking Bulls. Giannis Antetokounumpo hasn't been 100 percent because of an ankle injury. The Bucks have a much easier game on Friday playing the Lakers, so if they fall well behind they could just rest up their starters for tomorrow. The Warriors defeated the Bucks by 14 points in Milwaukee on Jan. 12 when they didn't have Stephen Curry. There's just too much of a class difference here and the timing is ripe for the Warriors getting back two of their stars while in stop-the-pain mode. | |||||||
03-29-18 | Yankees v. Blue Jays +140 | 6-1 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 51 m | Show | |
The Yankees are going to be overpriced a lot this season especially early with all the hype surrounding them. Toronto is just the opposite. The Blue Jays are healthy and underrated. That makes them dangerous. This price is too high. The Yankees usually struggle in Toronto losing in 14 of their last 20 visits. The pitching matchup is Luis Severino versus J.A. Happ. Severino is a potential ace, but he has a poor track record against Toronto giving up seven runs on 14 hits in 12 2/3 innings against them. On the flip side is Happ having excellent success versus the Yankees going 8-2 with a 3.61 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Happ finished 4-1 in his last five starts last season giving up just seven earned runs during this five-game span. | |||||||
03-29-18 | Cardinals v. Mets OVER 6.5 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
Much has to go right for there to be fewer than seven runs scored in a major league game. There are three elements at play here and two of the three point to a higher-scoring game than perceived. The starting pitching matchup does favor the Under with Carols Martinez facing Noah Syndergaard. These are elite pitchers although Martinez was more in the good than great category last season. But even if these aces are on their game - which is asking a lot since this is the earliest start date in baseball history excluding international games - they aren't going to get stretched out. The bullpens will be taking over at some point, probably earlier than expected, and neither is good. Both teams are still searching for their sure-fire closer. The Cardinals have a strong offense. The Mets' offense is underrated when Yoenis Cespedes is healthy, which he is now. | |||||||
03-28-18 | Celtics v. Jazz UNDER 194.5 | Top | 97-94 | Win | 100 | 16 h 1 m | Show |
Utah gives up the second-fewest points per game in the NBA. Boston surrenders the third-least amount of points per game. Of course, the oddsmaker knows this. So we have a low total here. But based on circumstances, injuries and a more in-depth look at these defenses, it still makes for a strong Under play. No team is stingier defensively at home than Utah. The Jazz have been the best in the NBA in defensive efficiency, too, during their past eight overall games. The Jazz should have lots of defensive energy and intensity having last played on Sunday. They've played three straight road games all against Western Conference opponents. The last time they met an Eastern Conference foe was in their last home game, a shocking 99-94 loss to the lowly Hawks on March 20. The Hawks are a bottom-10 defensive team so Utah only putting up 94 points on them raises questions about just how good the Jazz's are offensively especially when Donovan Mitchell has an off-shooting night. Utah catches a huge break. Not only are the Celtics without Kyrie Irving, their leading scorer, but Marcus Morris isn't likely to play either. He sprained his ankle in the Celtics' last game, a 102-94 road victory against the Suns this past Monday. Morris has been Boston's top scorer during Irving's absence. The Celtics have become the slowest tempo team in the league since Irving went out. The Suns have the worst defense in the NBA yet held the Celtics two points under their season average. Boston isn't going to speed things up either in this matchup playing its fourth road game in six days. This is a survival game for the Celtics. Boston has the top defensive efficiency rating in the league when on the road. The Celtics can never be counted out thanks to the superior coaching of Brad Stevens. They will rely heavily on their defense to try to keep this one tight. The Celtics don't play again until Saturday so they shouldn't give up their defensive intensity if they fall behind. | |||||||
03-27-18 | Bucks v. Clippers -3 | 98-105 | Win | 100 | 21 h 32 m | Show | |
The Clippers proved they were better than the Bucks when they beat them by seven points just five days ago in Milwaukee. Now the Clippers are home in must-win mode being 2 1/2 games out of the last playoff spot in the West. The Bucks don't have that kind of urgency being safely ahead of ninth-place Detroit by six games. Milwaukee is an underachiever given its talent. The Bucks have failed to cover in 11 of their last 15 games. The Clippers have been tough versus Eastern Conference foes. They just upset the best team in the East beating the Raptors in Toronto two days ago. That pushed the Clippers' mark to 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games versus Eastern opponents. Giannis Antetokounmpo isn't 100 percent because of an ankle injury. The Clippers could get back sharpshooter Danilo Gallinari for this game. | |||||||
03-27-18 | Western Kentucky -120 v. Utah | Top | 64-69 | Loss | -120 | 18 h 44 m | Show |
Surprised that Western Kentucky has reached the NIT semifinals? You shouldn't be. The Hilltoppers average nearly 79 points a game, have five solid starters and are 4-1 against Power-5 conference opponents with victories against Purdue, Boston College, Oklahoma State and USC. The Hilltoppers are road tested - defeating USC and Oklahoma State away during this tournament - and played a tougher preseason schedule than Utah, the lone remaining team from what has turned out to be a weak Pac-12 year. Utah has had a much easier NIT draw than Western Kentucky getting Cal Davis, a banged-up LSU team and weak foul-shooting St. Mary's squad that it beat in overtime. The much respected Pomeroy ratings rank Western Kentucky 45th in the country compared to Utah's 57th. | |||||||
03-26-18 | Coyotes v. Lightning OVER 6 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
Tampa Bay is the top goal scoring team in the NHL. Lately, though, the Lightning have sprung leaks defensively allowing three or more goals in 11 of their last 16 games. Tampa Bay has surrendered six or more goals three times during this stretch. This conincides with Arizona getting hot offensively. The Coyotes are averaging four goals per game during their last four matchups. Arizona draws Tampa Bay baciup goalie Louis Domingue, too. Domingue started the season with the Coyotes and was terrible with a 4.33 GAA while going 0-6. His GAA is 2.84 in nine games with Tampa Bay compared to Lightning starter Andrei Vasilevskiy's 2.59 GAA. Tampa Bay has been a strong Over team at home with the Over winning 69 percent of the time during the past 29 games at Amalie Arena. The Over has cashed in eight of Arizona's last 11 road games, too. This series has an Over bias especially in Tampa where the Over has won nine of the last 11 times for 82 percent. | |||||||
03-25-18 | Jazz v. Warriors UNDER 203 | 110-91 | Win | 100 | 13 h 4 m | Show | |
The mixture of no Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson combined with what projects as a slower-paced game than perceived should produce a lower than expected final score. It's no surprise the Warriors' offense is far less potent without their three leading scorers. If you discount their game against the Suns, who give up the most points per game in the NBA, the Warriors are averaging just 91.3 points during their last three games. Those games were against the Kings, Spurs and Hawks, too. The Kings and especially the Hawks are below average defensive clubs. Now the Warriors draw Utah, which has been playing the best defense in the league by far during the past 10 games. Utah has held 11 of its last 14 foes to fewer than 100 points. The Jazz aren't going to look to run. It's not their normal style anyways and they are coming off an unusual 124-120 overtime loss to the Spurs two days ago. This is Utah's third game in four days. So the Jazz don't have the legs for a track meet. Golden State has an underrated defense that it will rely on even more with their top scorers all sidelined. Golden State is No. 3 in the NBA in defensive field goal percentage. The Warriors rate fourth in defensive efficiency during their last five games as they adjust to their injuries. Draymond Green is going to play without a minutes restriction after missing the Warriors' Friday game against the Hawks because of a bruised pelvic. That's good news for the Under since Green is one of the best defensive players in the NBA. | |||||||
03-25-18 | Blazers v. Thunder -150 | 108-105 | Loss | -150 | 12 h 32 m | Show | |
It's taken nearly the entire season, but the Thunder are finally coming on winning seven of their last eight games, going 5-2-1 ATS. Their lone defeat during this span was a one-point road loss to the Celtics. During this span, the Thunder beat the Spurs at home and Raptors on the road. Oklahoma City should be super focused for this matchup. Not only do the Thunder have triple revenge, but they need to protect their strong home-court edge at Chesapeake Energy Arena trailing Portland by one game for third-place in the Western Conference playoff seeding. The Thunder also don't play again until Thursday. So an all-out effort should be forthcoming. The Trail Blazers have tailed off after winning 13 in a row. They've dropped their past two games, including a home loss to the Celtics - who were minus Kyrie Irving - this past Friday. Portland's strength is its backcourt. But the Trail Blazers could be short-handed there. Shabazz Napier, their No. 3 guard, is questionable because of a toe injury. He missed the Blazers' prevous game. There exists the possibility, too, that All-Star guard Damian Lillard could miss this game. Lillard's girlfriend is due to give birth to their child on Monday. But if it happens today, Lillard is prepared to leave the team to witness the birth. | |||||||
03-25-18 | Duke -145 v. Kansas | Top | 81-85 | Loss | -145 | 28 h 12 m | Show |
I want Duke going for me here. The Blue Devils are the best team, underline the word team, in the country this season. Not only are the Blue Devils a top-12 in the nation scoring and shooting team, but their defense has become elite. The Blue Devils' defense improved since Mike Krzyewski switched to primary zone with a few tweaks a couple of months ago. Since that time, the Blue Devils have ranked in the top-five in the country in defensive efficiency. Kansas needs to shoot very well to beat Duke. I don't see that happening especially given senior point guard Devonte' Graham's shooting woes. Graham has made just 14 of 33 shots from the floor for 33 percent while missing 12 of 17 3-point shots during the NCAA Tournament. The Jayhawks' defense hasn't been that crisp either. They've allowed 79 and 76 points in their last two games. The Jayhawks were able to get away with beating Penn, Seton Hall and Clemson despite these flaws. They won't be able to get away with Graham's poor shooting and lackluster defense versus Duke. I can see Kansas center Odoka Azubuike having problems and getting into foul trouble dealing with Duke's two low-post threats, Marvin Bagley and Wendell Carter. Bagley and Carter are considered to be top-eight picks in the NBA draft with Bagley possibly going as high as No. 2. They've helped Duke lead the nation in offensive rebounding. Duke got its mediocre game out of the way by beating Syracuse, 69-65, on Friday. Despite that non-cover, the Blue Devils are still 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games. They also have covered six of the past seven times following an ATS loss. The Blue Devils will find Kansas' zone easier to penetrate than Syracuse's. | |||||||
03-24-18 | Blackhawks v. Islanders -120 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
This is Chicago's first road game since officially being eliminated from the playoffs. The Blackhawks have lost 11 of their last 12 road contests. The Islanders are trying to keep their long-shot playoff hopes alive. So they are in must-win mode. While the Blackhawks lost 5-2 to the Canucks at home in their last game - a victory that halted a seven-game Vancouver losing skid - the Islanders nearly pulled off one of the top comebacks of the season. New York came from a 7-3 third period deficit against the Lightning, the team with the most points in the NHL, to lose 7-6. That shows the Islanders have some life, unlike the Blackhawks. New York also holds a goalie edge with Jaroslav Halak getting the start. Chicago is reduced to pair of ineffective backup goalies. | |||||||
03-23-18 | West Virginia +5 v. Villanova | Top | 78-90 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 5 m | Show |
This year's NCAA Tournament has been filled with upsets and extremely close games. I see that happening in this matchup. In most cases you have to go through stages to advance far in the NCAA Tournament. West Virginia reached the Sweet 16 last season. The Mountaineers still have their tremendous, tenacious pressing defense, but their offense is better this season. Jevon Carter is a tremendous all-around player, the kind of guard who can lead a team to the tournament championship. West Virginia averaged more than 80 points a game this season and its defense - both physical and athletic - will make things difficult for Villanova. The Wildcats have been bailed out so far in the tournament by extraordinary 3-point shooting. I don't see that continuing here. | |||||||
03-23-18 | Clippers v. Pacers UNDER 219 | 104-109 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
The Pacers' offense became very disjointed when they had to make up a postponed road game at New Orleans two days ago. Indiana shot just 36.6 percent from the floor in losing, 96-92, to the second-worst defensive team in the NBA. Now the Pacers are back home, but their offense still could be missing. Indiana isn't going to get many missed opportunities with the way DeAndre Jordan has been rebounding. The Clippers' star defensive center is averaging 18.5 rebounds per game this month. Indiana, though, has held eight of its past 11 opponents to 100 points or fewer. The Pacers have played a very slow pace during their past 10 games, second-slowest in the league during this span. The Clippers aren't going to look to run either since this is their sixth road game in their last seven games and third game in four days.The Clippers have played five straight games against good offenses. They are stepping down in offensive class here. | |||||||
03-23-18 | Nuggets v. Wizards -115 | 108-100 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
The Nuggets can't win on the road - 12-23 away from Pepsi Center - let alone defeat a good team on the road. Not helping matters for Denver is Gary Harris, their leading scorer, remains out with a knee injury. Even without John Wall, the Wizards are one of the top passing teams in the league. Denver ranks last in the NBA in defensive field goal percentage. Washington has played five games in a row versus playoff teams. So this is a step down for the Wizards. The Wizards have won the last three in the series, including beat the Nuggets in Denver back in October. Only once during its past six visits, has Denver won at Washington. | |||||||
03-23-18 | Canadiens v. Sabres OVER 5.5 | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 39 m | Show | |
Two non-playoff teams using backup goalies. It's a good combination for an Over. The Canadiens have given up three or more goals in seven of their last nine games. Carey Price is back for Montreal, but won't get the start here. Antti Niemi will and he's due for a regression. Third-string Linus Ullmark is set to make his second start for Buffalo. The Sabres haven't bee playing good defense in front of their goalies either allowing an average of four goals per game during their last four games. They've allowed three or more goals in eight of their last nine games. Montreal showed some offensive punch in its last game scoring three goals on the road against the Penguins. Buffalo's scoring attack is more respectable with its leading scorer, Jack Eichel, back from a long-term injury. | |||||||
03-22-18 | Canucks v. Blackhawks UNDER 6 | 5-2 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
The simple handicap here is that a total above 5 1/2 is too high when the Canucks are involved. Vancouver is averaging one per goal per game during its last seven games! This total lack of scoring is mainly a result of the Canucks losing their leading scorer and star, Brock Boeser, who hasn't played during this losing skid and likely won't play again this season due to injury. The Canucks rank 27th in scoring. They know they can't play wide open especially on the road. So it's not a surprise that the Under has cashed the past six times Vancouver has been away. The Blackhawks are playing for the first time since being officialy eliminated from the playoffs. That's a new experience for them so it remains to be seen how much effort and energy they'll produce here. The Blackhawks have a below offense. Chicago has been held to three goals or fewer in 12 of its last 15 games. The Blackhawks have been a huge Under team at home, too, with the Under going 19-5-2 in Chicago's last 26 games at United Center. | |||||||
03-22-18 | Lakers +2.5 v. Pelicans | 125-128 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
As far as fatigue factors go in the NBA, the Pelicans face the worst I've seen in a long time. Because of an earlier postponed game, the Pelicans are in action for the third straight day and fifth time in six days. The line is a little shorter because of it, but there are other reasons to back the Lakers and fade the Pelicans. The Lakers are 12-8 ATS in their last 20 games. They are in stop-the-pain mode, though, having lost three in a row. Those losses came to the Warriors, Heat by one point and Pacers. Before their losing skid, the Lakers had won eight of 10. So they are not in tank mode. Their talent level is higher than other lottery-bound teams. The Lakers should have far more energy than the Pelicans. Not only are the Lakers much younger, but they last played on Monday. This marks just their third game in seven days. The Lakers also have double revenge motivation. The Pelicans had a tougher-than-they-wanted victory against the Mavericks on Tuesday. They then beat the Pacers, 96-92, in another tough matchup last night. Anthony Davis logged more than 70 minutes during the two games. Jrue Holiday, the Pelicans' second-most valuable player, is battling the flu and needed intravenous fluids at halftime yesterday. This isn't a must-win spot for the Pelicans. They are three games ahead of Denver for the final playoff spot in the West. So Alvin Gentry shouldn't burn up his starters to win this game given the special fatigue situation. New Orleans hasn't been good in this type of role either failing to cover 10 of the past 13 times at home versus below .500 road opponents. | |||||||
03-22-18 | Loyola-Chicago v. Nevada -113 | Top | 69-68 | Loss | -113 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
It's a minor miracle that either of these two teams are still in the NCAA Tournament. Both are legitimate, but fortunate. Nevada, though, is better and the matchup favors the Wolfpack. The Wolfpack are more athletic, have more length across the board and a far more explosive offense. They also are more battle tested as this was a down year in the Missouri Valley Conference and have the better coach with Eric Musselman. Nevada averaged 83 points. That ranked 16th-best in the country and is more than 11 points more per game than Loyola. But a key here is the Wolfpack averaged just 9.6 turnovers per game, which was the fourth-lowest in the country. So Nevada isn't sloppy. Another key is 3-point shooting. Both teams ranked tied for 20th in 3-point shooting percentage. It's a key part of their arsenals. However, Nevada defends the 3-pointer better than the Ramblers ranking 19th in 3-point percentage defense. The Wolfpack have displayed tremendous reslilence in the tournament coming back from a 14-point, second-half deficit to nail an overtime win against Texas and then emerging from 22 points down to stun No. 2 seed Cincinnati. Not to take anything away from the Ramblers, but they faced a pair of very young teams in the tournament, Tennessee and Miami. The Ramblers got past both of these opponents by hitting buzzer-beaters. Nevada is a much more veteran team with five of its top six players either a junior or senior. This is the Wolfpack's easiest game yet in the tournament. The price is right to get involved backing them. | |||||||
03-21-18 | Utah v. St. Mary's -6 | Top | 67-58 | Loss | -106 | 19 h 46 m | Show |
So much for the Pac-12. All the teams from that conference are gone now except Utah. That should tell you something about the strength of the Pac-12 and after tonight I don't see any Pac-12 team standing. Saint Mary's should have made the NCAA Tournament. The Gaels are 18-1 at home this season with the lone loss coming to Gonzaga. The question with Saint Mary's isn't talent, but motivation. The Gaels have three key seniors. It's obvious now that the Gaels are out to prove the NCAA Tournament committee wrong by winning the NIT. They buried Southeast Louisiana, 89-45, in their NIT opener. The Gaels got their lackluster performance out of the way in getting past Washington, 85-81, two nights ago. I expect the Gaels to be sharper against Utah, another Pac-12 team. Saint Mary's has covered 12 of the last 17 times when playing a Pac-12 foe. Utah lives and die with its perimeter shooting especially from 3-point range. Saint Mary's ranks 14th in the country in scoring defense and 22nd in 3-point percentage defense. Utah is hurt by a rule change in the NIT that stretches the distance to score on a 3-point shot. The Gaels, led by center Jock Landale, are the most accurate shooting team in the nation. I don't see the Utes being able to stay with them. | |||||||
03-21-18 | Wizards +5 v. Spurs | 90-98 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 35 m | Show | |
This is a down season for the Spurs. They aren't more talented than the Wizards. Washington is one of the better road teams in the league. The Wizards have won and covered 57 percent of their away matchups, including five of their last seven. Both teams are minus their superstar. But the Spurs miss Kawhi Leonard more than Washington misses John Wall. The Wizards actually get better movement without Wall since they have the highest percentage of assists in the league during the past 22 games. The Wizards also have been No. 1 in assists per game since Jan. 27. The Wizards enter this matchup in good form having defeated two of the five best teams in the NBA, Boston and Indiana, during their last two games. The Wizards should be rested and ready having last been in action on Saturday. San Antonio is 4-0 on its homestand with a bigger game home game looming on Friday versus Utah. The Spurs beat the Warrors, 89-75, in their last game this past Monday. That victory, though, isn't nearly as impressive as it might seem. Golden State was without Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. The Warriors then lost Draymond Green to a pelvic injury in the first half. He didn't return. So the value is with the Wizards. | |||||||
03-21-18 | Nuggets v. Bulls UNDER 222 | 135-102 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
It's easy to remember Denver's last game. That was two nights ago when the Nuggets lost 149-141 in double overtime. This marks the Nuggets' third of a season-high seven-game road trip. So look for the Nuggets to go at a more slow pace especially coming off a wild double overtime game. Prior to that game, the Nuggets had managed only 94 points in a seven-point road loss to the Grizzlies, who had dropped 19 in a row entering that matchup. The Nuggets remain without guard Gary Harris, their leading scorer. He's out with a knee injury. The Bulls played their last game without their three best offensive players - Kris Dunn, Zach LaVine and Lauri Markkanen. The result was a 110-92 road loss to the Knicks on Monday. That's 92 points against a below average Knicks defense. The Bulls lacked any rhythm offensively minus their three leading scorers. Dunn is out for sure here. Maybe LaVine and Markkanen return, although the Bulls have no urgency to rush them back. So I'm going to go Under this high total. | |||||||
03-21-18 | Canadiens v. Penguins -1.5 | 3-5 | Win | 130 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
Montreal is playing the string out in the midst of another non playoff season. The Canadiens have been shut out in their last two games. But the big news here for the Canadiens is the expected return of Carey Price in net. That may sound good on the surface, but Price wasn't having a strong season when he suffered a concussion. This will be his first game since Feb. 20. Price figures to be very rusty. He also will be seeing a lot of young players in front of him and no stalwart defenseman Shea Weber, who is out for the year. Montreal has lost 22 of its last 28 games versus Eastern Conference foes. So I'm not expecting much from the dead Canadiens here. Neither is the oddsmaker with this large of a price. My strategy is to turn this into a plus profit by laying 1 1/2 goals on the puck line. The Penguins didn't play that well two games ago when they met the Canadiens in Montreal this past Thursday. Yet they still won by two goals. After that game the Penguins played the Islanders on the road. That was last night and the Islanders, a huge underdog, stunned the Penguins winning 4-1. I'm expecting a strong bouce back effort from Pittsburgh. There should not be a fatigue factor either as the Penguins' previous game before last night was back on Thursday against the Canadiens. The Penguins are 26-8-1 at home this season and Matt Murray is back in net for them after missing three weeks with a concussion. The Penguins usually crush weak foes going 8-1 the past nine times versus below .400 opponents. | |||||||
03-20-18 | Canucks v. Golden Knights -1.5 | 1-4 | Win | 104 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
The buy sign is back on for the Golden Knights after a 4-0 victory against the Flames this past Sunday. That halted a four-game home losing streak for Las Vegas. The Golden Knights should be back on track as this concludes their four-game homestand. Vancouver has become the worst team in the league since losing its leading scorer and sparkplug, rookie Brock Boeser. Since Boeser suffered a possible season-ending back injury, the Canucks have gone 0-6 scoring six goals in those six games. Las Vegas is 2-0 versus Vancouver defeating the Canucks 5-2 on the road and 6-3 at home. A similar three-goal victory wouldn't be in the least bit surprising. | |||||||
03-20-18 | Clippers v. Wolves -3 | 109-123 | Win | 100 | 15 h 24 m | Show | |
Injuries and the toll of a long season are going to cause the Clippers to probably miss the playoffs. LA has lost three in a row and looked extremely fatigued in a 122-109 home loss to the Trail Blazers this past Sunday. Now the Clippers are playing for the fourth time in six days - all at different venues. The Clippers are minus their two best backcourt defenders, Patrick Beverley and Avery Bradley. Both are out for the season. Sharpshooter Danilo Gallinari is sidelined, too. Minnesota is trying to make the Western Conference playoffs, too, and is very strong at home going 26-9 at Target Center. The Timberwolves have defeated the Clippers the past five times. They are 2-0 versus LA this season with both victories coming at Staples Center by an averaging winning margin of seven points. | |||||||
03-19-18 | Washington v. St. Mary's UNDER 144.5 | 81-85 | Loss | -107 | 17 h 22 m | Show | |
Not only does Saint Mary's rank 12th defensively in the nation, but they play one of the slowest paces in the country being very deliberate offensively. That combination has been instrumental in the Gaels going Under in 68 percent of their last 51 games. Washington has a strong zone defense imported from Syracuse by its coach, Mike Hopkins. Opponents who haven't seen the Huskies can have problems with this zone defense. The Huskies have gone Under in 20 of their last 26 away matchups. They have the top defensive player in the Pac-12 in Matisse Thybulle. | |||||||
03-19-18 | Washington +11 v. St. Mary's | 81-85 | Win | 100 | 17 h 21 m | Show | |
Saint Mary's definitely deserved to make the NCAA Tournament. But the Gaels aren't a great team. They are down from past seasons. The Gaels played a very weak non-conference schedule, barely beat Pepperdine in the first round of the West Coast Conference Tournament and then were blown out in the semifinals by BYU. They are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games. Washington can match up to the Gaels being the more athletic team and having strong guard play headed by Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year Matisse Thybulle. The Huskies are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 road games. Part of why this line is so high is Saint Mary's being 17-1 at home this season. But the Gaels are not invincible at home. Gonzaga proved that with a 78-65 victory at Saint Mary's on Feb. 10. Saint Mary's also lost 84-79 to Washington State back on Nov. 24. Washington played Washington State twice and beat the Cougars twice by a combined 23 points. | |||||||
03-19-18 | Panthers v. Canadiens UNDER 6 | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
A total of six is too high on a Montreal game. The Canadiens, battered by injuries, rank third-from-the-bottom in scoring. They are averaging 1.8 goals during their last six games. The Canadiens have been shut out 11 times so far this season. That's a franchise record. Florida is averaging only two goals per game during its past three road games. The Under has won 71 percent of the time that these two teams have played in Montreal. | |||||||
03-19-18 | Nuggets +2 v. Heat | 141-149 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 8 m | Show | |
Denver is a bad road team. But the Nuggets are coming off one of their worst losses of the season, catch the Heat in their first game back from a West Coast triple and have covered five of the last six times when playing in Miami. I'm expecting a strong effort from the Nuggets after their coach, Michael Malone, justifiably ripped them following a 101-94 road loss to Memphis. The Grizzlies had lost 19 in a row entering that matchup. The Nuggets aren't going to have guard Gary Harris, an underrated player and their leading scorer. But Miami might continue to be without Hassan Whiteside and Dwayne Wade. Whiteside leads the Heat in reboundings and blocked shots. He's maybe the premier rim protector in the Eastern Conference. Wade had helped key Miami's bench. Whiteside has missed the past four games. His absence could mean a big performance from Nikola Jokic, who is playing at a high level. | |||||||
03-18-18 | Blazers v. Clippers -125 | 122-109 | Loss | -125 | 13 h 53 m | Show | |
We're getting down to must-win mode in some NBA matchups. That's the case in this game for the Clippers. LA has lost two in a row falling to the Rockets and Thunder, both on the road. No shame in that. But those defeats dropped the Clippers to 1 1/2 games out of the last playoff spot in the Western Conference. Following this home matchup, the Clippers play six of their next seven games on the road. The first four of those away contests are against the Timberwolves, Bucks, Pacers and Raptors. I doubt the Clippers will be favored in any of those games. So there is a tremendous sense of urgency for the Clippers to win this game. Portland is playing its best ball winning 12 in a row. This isn't so much a fade on the Trail Blazers as a play on the Clippers because of the spot. However, Portland has won nine of their past 12 wins at home. Two of their road victories during this span were against the Lakers and Suns. The last time Portland was away from Moda Center was 13 days ago. They won't go back on the road after this until next Sunday. The Trail Blazers don't need this game nearly as much as the Clippers being in good shape to earn the No. 3 seed in the West. Portland carries a high fatigue rating, too, playing for the third time in four days and without rest having defeated Detroit, 100-87, last night. The Trail Blazers have a marquee home game up next hosting the Rockets on Tuesday. There's the outside chance the Trail Blazers may not have their All-Star guard Damian Lillard for this game as the due date for the birth of his son is Monday. If the birth occurs earlier, though, Lilllard said he would be there for the occasion. | |||||||
03-18-18 | Marshall v. West Virginia -12.5 | Top | 71-94 | Win | 100 | 18 h 36 m | Show |
Great job by Marshall upsetting Wichita State on Friday. That was the Thundering Herd's first NCAA Tournament victory. They are not going to get their second tournament win here, though. Not only are the Thundering Herd in a tough spot to get ready for this matchup following such a great win, but they have serious matchup problems against West Virginia. The Mountaineers hold huge edges athletically and in style of play with their pressure defense and strong senior backcourt of Jevon Carter and Daxter Miles. Unlike Marshall, West Virginia is tournament tested, too, having reached the Sweet 16 last March where they nearly took out Gonzaga. Not only can Carter, who was tremendous in the Mountaineers' first-round victory against Murray State and its star, Jonathan Stark, slow down Marshall's top scoring threat, Jon Elmore, but Sagaba Konate gives West Virginia a strong inside defensive presence. The Mountaineers finished sixth in the nation in shot block percentage. West Virginia is at its best against non-conference opponents not familar with the Mountaineers' full-court, all-out pressing. The Big 12 was tough again this season and its coaches know West Virginia. The conference also had exception guard play. West Virginia is stepping way down here. I see a kill spot here. | |||||||
03-18-18 | Maryland-Baltimore County v. Kansas State -10 | 43-50 | Loss | -113 | 15 h 53 m | Show | |
I'm still marveling at Maryland-Baltimore County's stunning upset of Virginia from two days ago. The Retrievers broke an 0-for-135 record of 16th seeds versus No. 1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament by defeating the Cavaliers, 74-54. This is arguably the biggest upset in NCAA Tourney history. There is no way the Retrievers can come down from the heavens in such a short period to play a second consecutive perfect game to stay within single digits of emerging Kansas State. Maryland-Baltimore County was a 10-point underdog to Vermont in the championship game of the American East Conference Tournament. The Retrievers hit a long 3-point shot to pull out that win after losing to Vermont twice during the regular season by an average of 21.5 points. This is a team that was buried, 83-39, by Albany. The Retrievers clearly aren't in the class of Kansas State, a solid Big 12 team. The Wildcats are strong defensively particularly with their perimeter defense. The Retrievers lack the inside scoring game to hurt the Wildcats. Kansas State was most impressive, too, in its first-round tournament game holding Creighton to a season low in points in a 69-59 victory. It's an added plus if Dean Wade is able to play for the Wildcats after missing the win against Creighton. | |||||||
03-18-18 | Stars v. Jets OVER 5.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 34 m | Show | |
These teams have gone Over the total in five of their last six meetings. I see that trend continuing especially with Mark Scheifele returning to the Jets' lineup. He's missed the last five games. The Jets have scored at least three goals in the last 10 games Scheifele has played in. Winninpeg has scored 14 goals in three games versus Dallas this season with Scheifele scoring six goals. The over has cashed in Winnipeg's last seven home games. The Jets will draw Ben Bishop, who is having an inconsistent season in goal. Dallas is giving up an average of four goals per game during its last four games. | |||||||
03-17-18 | Warriors -3 v. Suns | 124-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
Much has changed for the Warriors since their 129-83 waltz against the Suns in the team's last meeting on Feb. 12. Namely Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson are all out. Golden State is 1-3 in its last four games having just lost two days ago to the lowly Kings at home. But if there's a team worse than the Kings it's the Suns. They are 1-17 in their last 18 games, losers of seven in a row. Phoenix is 2-22 in its last 24 games and may not have its best player and only consistent, legitimate scorer, Devin Booker. He's questionable because of a sprained right hand that rendered him ineffective in the Suns' last game, a blowout loss to Utah. I see the Warriors digging deep to beat this lowly foe. Golden State has a deep bench and still has star foward Draymond Green and solid veterans Andre Iguodala, Nick Young, David West and Shaun Livingston. The Warriors' next game is at San Antonio on Monday. They don't play again after that until Friday when Curry might be able to return. So the Warriors should have a very strong focus for this matchup, which normally wouldn't be the case considering how weak the opponent is. | |||||||
03-17-18 | Seton Hall +4.5 v. Kansas | Top | 79-83 | Win | 100 | 14 h 4 m | Show |
Seton Hall has four excellent senior starters, including one of the top rebounders in the country in Angel Delgado, plus an excellent starting sophomore guard, Myles Powell. These group of seniors are playing in the NCAA Tournament for the third consecutive year. They earned their first Big Dance victory beating North Carolina State on Thursday to push their unbeaten point-streak to six in a row. They also got the moneky off their back in breaking through with an NCAA Tournament victory. This isn't a great Kansas team. The Jayhawks struggled against Ivy League team Penn before closing out the Quakers with a 14-6 run. That won't happen against tournament-tested Seton Hall. One of the Pirates' strong points is their offensive rebound. One of Kansas' weakness is giving up offensive rebounds where it ranked 280th in the country. The taller Priates can limit Kansas' rebounding and thus blunt the Jayhawks' desire to play up-tempo and their aggressive in-transition style. | |||||||
03-17-18 | Senators v. Blue Jackets -1.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
Columbus is playing its best hockey down the strentch. The Blue Jackets have won six in a row. They also own a six-game home win streak. Columbus has won by more than one goal during five of its last seven victories and has been dominant at home versus opponents with a winning percentage of less than .400 going 22-6. Goalie Sergei Bobrovsky has returned to top form. The Blue Jackets have given up two goals or fewer in four of their last six games and not more than three during regulation in this time span. Ottawa has been playing well, too, post three straight upset victories defeating the Panthers and Lightning on the road and the Stars at home last night, 3-2 in overtime. But the Senators aren't a good team - with a below average offense and the league's 30th-ranked defense - and carry a heavy fatigue rating. This is Ottawa's fourth game in six days and second in two days. The Senators are 1-5 the past six times when playing without rest. So I don't see the Senators winning a fourth consecutive game, something they haven't achieved all season. | |||||||
03-17-18 | Rhode Island v. Duke UNDER 149.5 | 62-87 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
I'm not sold on Rhode Island's perimeter game. I see the Rams struggling to hit their outside shots against Duke's tough zone defenses. The Blue Devils have held seven of their last nine opponents to fewer than 69 points. The Under has cashed during eight of these past nine Duke games. The Rams can't count on getting to the foul line either as Duke's ranks No. 2 in the nation in fewest fouls. Rhode Island is very solid defensively allowing 68.2 points per game and ranking 47th in 3-point defense. I can envision the Rams bothering the Blue Devils, who have been turnover-prone, with their fullcourt pressure defense. "Our program is built around defense and making our opponent uncomfortable," Rhode Island coach Dan Hurley was quoted as saying after the Rams held Oklahoma to 69 points during regulation in their opening round NCAA Tournament game. The Sooners were ranked fifth in the nation in scoring at 84.9. | |||||||
03-16-18 | Wild v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
Minnesota is a top-10 scoring team that has scored three or more goals in nine of its last 12 games. The Wild are likely to draw Las Vegas backup goalie Malcolm Subban. Golden Knights starting goalie Marc-Andre Fleury clearly hit a wall after starting 18 of the past 19 games. He was the starter in Las Vegas' 8-3 home loss to the Devils this past Wednesday. The Golden Knights are the No. 2 scoring team in the NHL. They've been in scoring slump, which should end now that star forward James Neal is back playing. Neal is the Golden Knight's third-leading goal scorer. Minnesota has a key defensive injury with defenseman Jared Spurgeon out with a torn hamstring suffered this past Tuesday. The teams have met twice this season and there were six and seven goals, respectively, scored by the two teams. | |||||||
03-16-18 | New Mexico State +5 v. Clemson | 68-79 | Loss | -102 | 20 h 22 m | Show | |
This is one of those No. 5 seeds versus No. 12 seeds that has seen so many upsets occur in the first round. I see this game fitting that upset pattern. I like having an underdog that has a coaching edge, is a strong rebounding team and plays very good defense. New Mexico State has all that going. The Aggies finished in the top-five in the nation in defensive field goal percentage and rebounding margin. Chris Jans has done a tremendous job in his first season as New Mexico State's coach. The Lobos proved they can step up in class knocking off Miami, Davidson and Illinois during a tough non-conference slate. They lost by just five to USC, a team better than Clemson no matter what the NCAA Tournament committee thinks. Clemson should not be this high of a seed. The Tigers built up their record by winning 15 of 16 home games. Their offense has gone downhill since their second leading scorer and rebounder, Dante Graham, suffered a season-ending injury in January. | |||||||
03-16-18 | College of Charleston +9.5 v. Auburn | Top | 58-62 | Win | 100 | 18 h 26 m | Show |
Auburn couldn't get straighten out for the SEC Conference Tournament and I don't see the Tigers getting a much needed quick fix in this opening round NCAA Tournament game either. The Tigers are 2-4 SU, 1-5 ATS in their last six games. They were blasted by Alabama, 81-63, during the quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament. It's clear now that Auburn way overachieved earlier in the season. This certainly is the wrong time to be playing your worst ball. The College of Charleston is just the opposite. The Cougars are riding tremendous mometum winning 14 of their last 15 games. Their lone defeat during this span occurred in overtime. It wouldn't shock me at all to see the Cougars win this game outright. | |||||||
03-15-18 | Montana v. Michigan -10 | Top | 47-61 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
Michigan's John Beilein is my favorite college basketball coach now that Bo Ryan has retired. His Wolverines have tournament experience and plenty of rest having been idle for 10 days following winning the Big 10 Conference Tournament. The Wolverines achieved that in grand style winning four games in four days culminated by victories against Michigan State and Purdue during the last two days. Michigan's averaging winning margin against those two powerhouses was 10 points. Montana certainly isn't in the class of Purdue and Michigan State. The Grizzlies play in Big Sky Conference. They last participated in the NCAA Tournament in 2013. The last time they won a game in the Big Dance was 2006. The Grizzlies are 3-11 the last 14 times they've played Big 10 teams and are 1-5 ATS during their past six neutral site games. Michigan, by contrast, is 15-5-1 ATS the past 21 times when meeting an above .500 opponent. The Wolverines enter tournament play riding a nine-game win streak. They have the ninth-best defense in the country, have held seven of their last eight opponents to fewer than 67 points, rank 25th in offensive rebounding and are No. 2 in turnover percentage. They are far, far superior to Montana. Given the situational elements, the Wolverines should have no problem winning by double-digits. | |||||||
03-15-18 | Suns +14 v. Jazz | 88-116 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 6 m | Show | |
Utah is playing great and just destroyed Detroit, 110-79, at home two days ago. That was the Jazz's fifth straight victory by at least 14 points. Phoenix is 1-16 in its last 17 games and just was embarrassed, 129-107, at home by the Cavaliers this past Tuesday. That was only the third time in their last 11 games, though, the Suns have lost by more than 11 points. Understandably the marketplace isn't interested in backing Phoenix. The Jazz have been bet up enough, however, where I see value taking the Suns. The Suns want to redeem themselves from their bad loss to the Cavaliers. Devin Booker, their best player, criticized his organization following that loss for babying the players. The Suns are extremely young with only Tyson Chandler and Jared Dudley having more than four years experience. But the Suns do possess some talent headed by Booker, the 10th-leading scorer in the NBA. Phoenix is 9-5 ATS the past 14 times it has been a double-digit 'dog. The Suns won't attempt to play their small ball against this opponent. So Chandler, their veteran big man and still a rebounding force, will draw decent minutes. He can keep Rudy Gobert in check. The Jazz can't be faulted for taking this opponent lightly. Utah averages less than 103 points a game so it's difficult to cover a margin this large. | |||||||
03-15-18 | Avalanche v. Blues OVER 5.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 4 m | Show | |
Perhaps last week this total would have made sense given the Blues' scoring woes. But St. Louis' offense has come alive. The Blues scored a combined 11 goals in their last two games against the Ducks and Kings, a pair of top-five defenses, while averaging 33 shots on goal in those matchups. Colorado ranks 17th defensively. Colorado is the eighth-highest scoring team in the NHL. The Avalanche are averaging 4.2 goals during their last seven games. Nathan MacKinnon is one of the hottest players in the league with 17 points in his last nine games, including eight goals. Jake Allen will be making his fourth consecutive start in net with Carter Hutton still out for St. Louis. The last time Allen made this many starts in a row was back in December. | |||||||
03-15-18 | Bruins v. Panthers OVER 5.5 | 0-3 | Loss | -120 | 2 h 7 m | Show | |
The Bruins are averaging 4.6 goals during their last eight games. The Panthers have scored at least three goals in 10 straight games. So I find this total low especially since both teams are expected to go with their backup goalies. Boston's Anton Khudobin is one of the better second-string goalies, but Florida backup James Reimer is bad. The Bruins could be down two key defensemen, too. Zdeno Chara isn't likley to play and Torey Krug is questionable. Both were injured in Boston's last game. | |||||||
03-15-18 | NC State v. Seton Hall -135 | 83-94 | Win | 100 | 14 h 48 m | Show | |
Kudos to Kevin Keatts for the remarkable job he did this season at North Carolina State. The Wolfpack really overachieved going from a sub .500 team of a year ago to making the Big Dance this season. But this is a bad matchup for the Wolfpack. Their lack of tournament experience, poor defensive field goal percentage and mediocre rebounding is going to cost them against Seton Hall in this first round Midwest Region game. When the point spread is short like this, I often like to play the money line laying a little higher juice for more protection. There should be good shopping in this regards with a lot of money line flucutation. Often a team goes through stages gradually improving until they are ripe to win a game or two in the NCAA Tournament. That's the case with Seton Hall. The Pirates are making their third straight appearance in the NCAA Tournament. They lost in their first-round game to powerhouse Gonzaga two years ago and lost in controversial fashion last season to Arkansas on a flagrant foul call late in the game when trailing by only one point. I believe the due factor kicks in for Seton Hall here. The Pirates have the experience - with four senior starters - and talent to beat this opponent. Those starting seniors - Khadeen Carrington, Angel Delgado, Desi Rodriguez and Ismael Sanogo - are the most successful recruiting group Seton Hall has had in a long time. Rodriguez is averaging nearly 18 points and five rebounds per game and Delgado is the Big East's career rebounding leader. The other starter, sophomnore guard Myles Powell, averages 15.4 points a game and was named the Big East's Most Improved Player. The Pirates enter the tournament having covered in their last five games. While North Carolina State did go 11-7 in the ACC, its non-conference schedule ranked just 343rd in the country as far as strenth of schedule. North Carolina State ranks 294th in defensive field goal percentage, allowing foes to hit 53.5 percent of their two-point shots, and is 307th in defensive rebounding percentage. Seton Hall can exploit this ranking among the top 30 in offensive rebounding percentage and rating 26th in terms of points per 100 possessions. The timing is ripe for these outstanding Seton Hall seniors to win an NCAA Tournament game. That time is now. | |||||||
03-14-18 | Lakers v. Warriors -7 | Top | 106-117 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
The Warriors have been idle since Sunday having lost their last two games. Golden State hasn't lost three games in a row all season. Golden State is rested, fired-up and ready to unleash its frustrations against the Lakers. LA has been playing well, but isn't good enough to beat an elite foe. The Lakers also just beat the Nuggets in a highly-satisfying home victory last night in a very emotional and physical game. This marks the Lakers' third game in four days. They remain without injured second-leading scorer Brandon Ingram. The Warriors won't have Stephen Curry. They've had two games to adjust now to his absence. Golden State leads the NBA in all major scoring categories, including points per game and shooting percentage. The Warriors also rank third in defensive field goal percentage. The Lakers rank 27th defensively. They've allowed triple-digits in their last 13 games. The Warriors are by far the superior team and are in a strong situational spot here. The points are worthy laying. | |||||||
03-14-18 | BYU v. Stanford -135 | 83-86 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show | |
Stanford plays in the better conference and was tough down the stretch going 5-2. A victory against Arizona State 11 days ago was especially impressive. BYU hasn't been impressive on the road losing at Pacific, Loyola-Marymount and San Diego while going into overtime against Pepperdine. The Cardinal have covered in eight of their last nine home contests. Stanford has a balanced scoring attack paced by forward Reid Travis, one of the better players in the Pac-10. BYU ranks just 231st in defensive field goal percentage allowing opponents to hit nearly 45 percent of their field goals. | |||||||
03-14-18 | Wizards -140 v. Celtics | 125-124 | Win | 100 | 8 h 60 m | Show | |
At first this line may seem strange: Washington a road favorite against the Celtics. But there are reasons for this. The Celtics aren't playing that well going just 7-6 in their last 13 games. Worse for the Celtics is they are extremely banged-up. Kyrie Irving, Jaylen Brown, Daniel Theis and Marcus Smart are all out. Al Horford missed the Celtics' last game with an illness and is questionable here. The Celtics are likely ensured of finishing in second place in the Eastern Conference so this isn't a high priority game. Boston is well ahead of Indiana and Cleveland for the No. 2 spot, but trails Eastern Conference leader Toronto by four games. Washington is in stop-the-pain mode having lost two in a row. Those losses came to Miami on the road and to Minnesota at home last night. The Wizards were idle the previous two days, though, so fatigue shouldn't factor. The Wizards are 20-14 ATS on the road this season, including covering five of their past six away matchups. | |||||||
03-14-18 | Penguins v. Rangers OVER 6 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 30 m | Show | |
The Penguins have scored three or more goals in 14 of their last 16 games. They also are giving up an average of 3.75 goals during their last eight games. So it's not a surprise the Over has cashed in eight of Pittsburgh's past 11 games. New York has surrendered at least three goals in 12 of its last 14 games. The Rangers, though, have been scoring. If you discount a shutout loss to the Jets, the Rangers are averaging four goals per game during their last six games. Both teams are going to be using backup goalies. Matt Murry is still sidelined by a conussion so Casey DeSmith is expected to get the start while Alexandar Georgiev has been confirmed as the Rangers' goalie for this game. Only three times during the past 16 meetings in this series has the Under won. | |||||||
03-13-18 | North Carolina-Asheville +18 v. USC | 98-103 | Win | 100 | 15 h 13 m | Show | |
USC can destroy this team if it wants. But I don't see the Trojans having the motivation after failing to make the NCAA Touranment. The Trojans were royally ripped-off in not making the tournament. This is their first NIT bid since 1999 - and they certainly aren't excited about it. Their home court edge isn't going to amount to that much either because it's spring break on the USC campus. UNC Asheville have experienced guards, which is a key in tournament action especially when on the road. The Bulldogs are excited about taking on the Trojans. They have covered in seven of their last 10 matchups versus opponents who have a winning percentage above .600. | |||||||
03-13-18 | Nuggets v. Lakers +2 | 103-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
The Lakers are playing well winning seven of their last nine, including defeating Cleveland, 127-113, at home this past Sunday. The Lakers have covered 69 percent of their last 16 games. LA is home here with short revenge. The Nuggets are 11-20 on the road this season. There is bad blood between these two teams and it centers around the Nuggets punk guard Jamal Murray. The Lakers don't like Murry believing he hasn't shown proper NBA respect. The Nuggets just beat the Lakers, 125-116, at Pepsi Center this past Friday in an intense matchup that concluded with Lakers coach Luke Walton screaming at Murray and a number of LA players vowing payback. That time has come now. Julius Randle and Brook Lopez are playing at high levels. Lonzo Ball is healthy. The Lakers have scored at least 111 points in 10 of their last 12 games. Denver ranks last in defensive field goal and is weak on the road. | |||||||
03-13-18 | Southeastern Louisiana v. St. Mary's UNDER 142 | 45-89 | Win | 100 | 14 h 7 m | Show | |
St. Mary's is ranked 15th in fewest points allowed per game. SE Louisiana is going to have problems denting the Gaels' defense. The under has cashed 14 of the last 17 times in St. Mary's home games. | |||||||
03-13-18 | Hampton +22.5 v. Notre Dame | Top | 63-84 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
It's spring break and snowing on the Notre Dame campus. So it's hard to imagine the Irish basketball players getting up for this first-round NIT matchup knowing they were the final school left out of the NCAA Tournament, a tournament they should have been selected to. This what Notre Dame coach Mike Brey was quoted as saying on Sunday when word came out that the Irish were not picked for the NCAA Tournament: "We've had all kinds of things happen and on the most important day, it was a heartbreaking day. It's a tough one to swallow." I can't see Notre Dame being motivated at all. But is Hampton good enough to hang around? I believe so especially given this huge spread. The Pirates were the best team in the MEAC this season. They have played in post-season tournaments the past four years, including the NCAA Tournament in 2015 and 2016. Hampton has won 10 of its last 11 games. The Pirates have a pair of very good guards in Jermaine Marrow and Malique Trent-Street. The Pirates ranked 55th in the nation in scoring at 79.3 points per game. Notre Dame, which has been inconsistent offensively, averages 75 points. The Pirates are a strong rebounding team - tied for 12th in the nation - and have depth with 11 players averaging at least 11 minutes per game. This is important if the spread comes into question late in the game when Notre Dame is playing its bench players. Hampon is road-tested having covered 12 of its last 16 away contests. The Pirates rank among the top 56 teams in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. So there are a lot of checkmarks as to why Hampton can hang with a disinterested Notre Dame team that isn't likely to have much of a crowd. | |||||||
03-13-18 | Hornets v. Pelicans -4 | 115-119 | Push | 0 | 17 h 29 m | Show | |
The Pelicans have Anthony Davis back and are due for a strong performance after losing the first two games of their homestand. Those losses were to the Wizards and Jazz. Now the Pelicans are dropping way down in class. The Hornets are nine games under .500 and headed for the lottery once again. They are 1-5 in their last six games. Their lone victory during this span was a home win against the lowly Suns, who were minus their best player, Devin Booker. The Hornets nearly blew a 22-point lead, too, in that game as the Suns cut the margin to just two points in the fourth quarter. Charlotte is 2-7 ATS in its last nine road games and 0-8 the past eight times versus Western Conference foes. The Hornets also could be without underrated big man Cody Zeller, who is dealing with knee soreness. | |||||||
03-13-18 | Senators v. Lightning OVER 6 | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 2 m | Show | |
There is only one way to play this total - and it's not going Under. Tampa ranks No. 1 in goals scoring, averaging 3.6 per game. Ottawa yields 3.4 goals per game, worst in the NHL. The Lightning have scored three or more goals in 17 of their last 19 games. In 13 of these last 19 games, the Lightning have scored four or more goals. It's safe to assume they are going to light up the scoreboard against the defensively-challenged Senators, who have permitted three or more goals in nine of their last 12 games. Ottawa, though, has picked up its scoring aided by arguably the best offensive defenseman in the NHL, Eric Karlsson. The Senators have scored three or more goals in six of their last nine games, including scoring five goals against Florida and its hot goalie, Roberto Luongo, in their last game. Tampa Bay goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy has hit a wall. The overworked Vasilevskiy has given up three or more goals in all but one of his last six starts. The Over has cashed in five of the last six meetings between the two teams, including all three games this season. Tampa Bay won 4-3 in a shootout in the first meeting. Ottawa won the second get together, 6-3, at home and then lost to the Lightning at home, 4-3, on Feb. 22. | |||||||
03-12-18 | Canucks v. Kings -1.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 145 | 20 h 39 m | Show |
This is a kill spot for the Kings and I'll gladly take a nice plus price to lay 1 1/2 goals. The Kings were buried by the struggling Blues, 7-2, at home this past Saturday afternoon. The last time LA was embarrassed at home by that big of a margin was 2008. That loss dropped the Kings out of a playoff spot. But LA can get right back into the playoffs with a victory. Not only do the Kings have playoff incentive and motivation to rebound from probably their worst game of the season, but they also have revenge. The Canucks embarrassed the Kings with a 6-2 home win on Jan. 23. The Canucks are out of playoff contention and struggling losing eight of their last 10 games. They are 0-3 since their leading scorer and rookie sparkplug, Brock Boeser, suffered a season-ending fracture in his lower back last Monday. Vancouver's offense has yet to recover from losing Boeser averaging one goal during the last three games, including a 1-0 defeat to Arizona on Sunday night. This marks Vancouver's third game in four days and second in two nights. | |||||||
03-11-18 | Rockets v. Mavs +12.5 | 105-82 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 24 m | Show | |
Dallas is playing better since being called out for tanking. The Mavericks are 2-0 in their last two games defeating the Nuggets and Grizzlies by a combined 45 points. They could get back Dennis Smith Jr. from a quad injury today after the star rookie point guard missed the Mavericks' 114-80 waltz against the Grizzlies last night. The Mavericks should have more motivation than the Rockets in a triple-revenge spot. Houston is 3-0 versus Dallas this season. The Rockets' average win margin in these three games is 10 points. Perhaps the biggest factor, though, in backing the home 'dog is I'm not expecting James Harden to play for the Rockets. This is Houston's fourth road game in six days. The Rockets have a far more challenging game on Monday when they host San Antonio. So the word is the Rockets are going to give Harden a chance to rest his sore knees by sitting him out here. Houston doesn't figure to care much about this matchup and could be in a letdown moood after its 17-game win streak was ended by the Raptors this past Friday night. | |||||||
03-11-18 | Warriors v. Wolves UNDER 226 | Top | 103-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
You probably know Golden State is the highest scoring team in the NBA. But the Warriors also are a strong defensive team, too. They rank No. 3 in defensive field goal percentage. Golden State should be motivated to play a much stronger defensive game than its last appearance when it lost, 125-108 on the road to the Trail Blazers Friday. The Warriors had to play that game without rest. The Under has cashed four of the past five times the Warriors have played on one day's rest. Karl-Anthony Towns is the Timberwolves' leading scorer with Jimmy Butler out. He'll have to face Draymond Green, one of the top defenders in the league. So I'm not expecting the Timberwolves to have a big scoring game. The key, though, is can the Timberwolves hold the Warriors down enough to make this Under work? I believe the circumstances are right for this to occur. Minnesota is in stop-the-pain mode having lost three in a row. Timberwolves coach Tom Thibodeau knows his team has to tighten their defense in order to overcome the loss of Butler, their top scorer but also their best defender. The Timberwolves should have a lot of defensive intensity. They also draw a beat-up Warrors squad minus Stephen Curry, who averages 26.3 points a game. He's out with an ankle injury. David West and Andre Iguodala aren't likely to play either. Jordan Bell and Patrick McCaw are definitely out. This heavily reduces the Warriors' depth and bench strength. This also is a day game with a start made even earlier by daylight savings time kicking in. Note, too, there is a strong Under history with 13 of the last 16 between these two teams going below the total when played in Minnesota. | |||||||
03-11-18 | Davidson v. Rhode Island UNDER 140 | 58-57 | Win | 100 | 5 h 4 m | Show | |
These teams have a strong under bias when playing one another. The under has cashed in seven of the past nine meetings. I see that trend contiuning here. These teams have met twice this season and the combined total for both games was 127 1/2 points scored. Davidson is not the high scoring team of past seasons. The Wildcats are much more deliberate and slow paced. They figure to have problems making their long jumpers, too, as Rhode Island ranks first in the Atlantic 10 Conference in 3-point defense. | |||||||
03-11-18 | Bruins v. Blackhawks UNDER 6 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 31 m | Show | |
Less than 24 hours after Boston beat Chicago, 7-4 on Saturday, these teams are playing against each other this time in Chicago with a very early start time. I envision a much slower-paced game and a lot of tired legs. There's bad blood between these two teams and the Blackhawks are in the shortest revenge spot possible after blowing a two-goal lead. Anton Khudobin is going to be in goal for Boston, but he's one of the better backups in the league. The Bruins are the No. 2 defensive team in the league. Chicago has scored two goals or less in 11 of its last 17 games. | |||||||
03-10-18 | Magic +11.5 v. Clippers | 105-113 | Win | 100 | 13 h 4 m | Show | |
Less than 24 hours after a highly satisfying 116-102 home win against LeBron James and the Cavaliers, the Clippers host the lowly Magic. It's going to be tough for the Clippers to get up for this opponent especially since the Magic are likely to be without their two leading scorers, Aaron Gordon (concussion) and Evan Fournier (knee). The Magic played one of their worst games without those two losing 94-88 on the road to the Kings last night. Orlando's offense was discombobulated against a weak Kings defense. But the Magic have had a game now to adjust to the absence of Gordon and Fournier. The Clippers have been winning with offense not defense allowing triple digits in each of their last 11 games. So I'm expecting a better and more inspired performance from the Magic, who don't play again until Tuesday. Unlike other bottom feeders, the Magic usually play hard and are not in tank mode. This is born out by the Magic covering 16 of the last 22 times as underdogs, going 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games and being 8-2 ATS off an ATS loss. Orlando has covered 17 of its last 24 games and is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games when playing an opponent with a winning home mark. The Clippers have a three-game road trip up next that features matchups against the Rockets and Thunder. So Doc Rivers isn't going to burn out his best players against this opponent especially since his team played last night. | |||||||
03-10-18 | Rangers v. Panthers UNDER 6.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 22 m | Show | |
First, we're getting both team's best goalies as Henrik Lundqvist and Roberto Luongo have been confired. Luongo has been especially sharp since returning from injury. The revamped Rangers can't be counted on to score more than three goals failing to do so in seven of their past eight games. Before giving up five goals to the top-scoring Lightning in their last game, the Rangers had allowed an average of two goals per game during their last three games. Florida hasn't allowed more than two goals per game during five of its last six games. The Under has cashed in Florida's last five home games. | |||||||
03-10-18 | San Diego State -4 v. New Mexico | Top | 82-75 | Win | 100 | 5 h 12 m | Show |
San Diego State is on a huge roll and I'm going to get behind the Aztecs here. They are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four games since suspended senior leader Malik Pope returned to the team. All together, the Aztecs have won eight in a row. They've covered the past six times against above .500 opponents. New Mexico is in a bad situational spot having had to play the late game last night. Now they have to play around 15 hours later with legs that figure to be tired. San Diego State should be the much fresher team since it played earlier and only had one of its starters go past the 29-minute mark. The Aztecs are a bad matchup, too, for New Mexico because they like to slow things down and don't turn the ball over. The Lobos thrive on comitting turnovers. That's not likely to happen here. | |||||||
03-09-18 | Oregon v. USC -140 | 54-74 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show | |
I don't see Oregon having anything left in the tank. The Ducks are playing for the third day in a row. They won in overtime two days ago and were involved in a nail-biting two point victory against Utah last night. | |||||||
03-09-18 | Wizards v. Pelicans UNDER 220 | 116-97 | Win | 100 | 5 h 41 m | Show | |
The Wizards don't play at a fast pace and could be without Otto Porter Jr., their third-leading scorer. The Pelicans are unlikely to have Anthony Davis. His minutes will be filled by defensive-minded players, Emeka Okafor and Cheick Diallo. The Pelicans are a high scoring team, but that scoring is going to be down without Davis and DeMarcus Cousins, who is out for the season. | |||||||
03-09-18 | Knicks +10 v. Bucks | 112-120 | Win | 100 | 4 h 29 m | Show | |
The due factor is there for the Knicks, who are 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five games and were blown out at Portland during their last game this past Tuesday. Mainly, though, this handicap is a fade on the Bucks laying this many points. Milwaukee just isn't that strong of a team and are not in good form. The Bucks have lost six of their last seven games. They are 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games and 2-6 SU with one of those victory coming against the Hawks by five points. The Knicks nearly beat the Bucks when they last played at Bradley Center falling 92-90 on Feb. 2. The Knicks then lost by 14 points at home to the Bucks four days in the game where Kristaps Porzingis was lost for the season with an ACL injury. So the Knicks should have extra motivation here. | |||||||
03-09-18 | Rockets -120 v. Raptors | 105-108 | Loss | -120 | 17 h 39 m | Show | |
There aren't many teams who can trump the Raptors in Toronto. Just two really. Golden State and Houston. Kudos to the Raptors if they can end the Rockets' 17-game win streak. I don't see it happening, though. The Raptors may be the best team in the Eastern Conference, but they have fattened up their record by dominating weak teams. Toronto has failed to cover seven of the past 10 times, though, when playing opponents with a winning mark. Houston, by contrast, is 9-0 ATS in its last nine road games versus foes with a winning home record. The Rockets also are 14-3 ATS the past 17 times playing above .500 opponents. The Rockets have added motivation for a 129-113 home loss to the Raptors suffered back in mid-November. | |||||||
03-09-18 | Rockets v. Raptors UNDER 220.5 | Top | 105-108 | Win | 100 | 17 h 37 m | Show |
It's easy to think offense with all the stars going in this matchup. The linesmaker believes so, too, setting a high total. But Houston and Toronto are two underrated defensive teams. The Rockets rank 10th in defensive efficiency. They are giving up 105.2 points per game on the season, which ranks 12th. They have held three of their last five opponents under 100 points. The Raptors rank No. 2 in defensive efficiency. They play their best defense at home, too. Toronto has held its last three opponents at Air Canada Centre to an average of 94 points. This sets up as an intense showdown battle between arguably the two best teams in each conference. Both teams are in action for the third time in four days. So I'm not expecting an up-tempo attack from either team. This should be a playoff-type game with far more defense than perceived. | |||||||
03-09-18 | Flames v. Senators OVER 5.5 | 2-1 | Loss | -116 | 3 h 58 m | Show | |
Since Michael Ferland returned from an injury two games ago, the Flames' scoring has picked up. Calgary is averaging four goals per game in its last two games. The Senators have scored 3 or more goals in 11 of their last 15 games. They've also allowed 3 or more goals in 14 of their last 17 games. That's no surprise since Ottawa has the worst defense in the league. These teams have gone Over in seven of their past eight meetings. | |||||||
03-08-18 | Oregon v. Utah +2.5 | 68-66 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
Utah beat Oregon at Oregon by 10 earlier this season. Now the Utes catch Oregon off an OT win against Washington State yesterday. So a big scheduling edg goes to Utah. The Utes had a first-round bye and are playing better than the Ducks. The Utes are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games. Utah has the necessary point guard in Justin Bibbins and big man David Collette can hurt Oregon inside. The Utes are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 Pac-12 games. | |||||||
03-08-18 | Celtics v. Wolves +2.5 | 117-109 | Loss | -120 | 15 h 52 m | Show | |
Much is being made of the Timberwolves being without Jimmy Buttler. But the Celtics are likely to be missing their best player, too. Kyrie Irving is doubtful with a knee injury. The Celtics are playing their third consecutive road game. The Timberwolves have had five full days of rest after returning from a West Coast trip where they lost to Portland and Utah in their last two games. The Timberwolves should be rested and ready. Minnesota has been dominant at Target Center winning 15 of its last 16 there, including covering 11 of its last 14. Boston has failed to cover during four of its past five visits to Minnesota. | |||||||
03-08-18 | Sabres +145 v. Senators | Top | 4-3 | Win | 145 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
These are the two worst teams in the Eastern Conference. So my natural inclination is to take a plus price. That inclination is heavily increased with the situation. Buffalo is coming off a bad 5-1 home loss to Calgary Wednesday night. Sabres coach Phil Housley was critical of his team's defense. I expect the Sabres to come out motivated and playing much better. They were 3-1 in their prevous four games with the victories coming against the Bruins, Lightning and Maple Leafs. Those three teams are all far superior to the Senators. Goalie Robin Lehner won't lack motivation having used to play for Ottawa. Lehner is expected to get the start for Buffalo. He's 5-0-3 versus the Senators with a .950 save percentage and 1.57 GAA. The Senators are 1-8 in their last nine games versus opponents with a less than .400 winning percentage. They return home fat and happy after capping off their four-game, nine-day long road trip with a 3-2 overtime victory against the Stars on Monday. Buffalo is 4-1 versus Ottawa during the past five meetings. | |||||||
03-08-18 | Golden Knights -125 v. Red Wings | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 4 h 25 m | Show | |
The Golden Knights are in stop-the-pain mode and revenge mode. I see them getting back on track against the Red Wings. Goalie Marc-Andre Fleury has been extremely solid on the road with a 10-4-1 mark, 2.12 GAA and .934 save percentage. Las Vegas has been excellent, too, when playing on one day's rest going 20-6. | |||||||
03-08-18 | Jets -110 v. Devils | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 4 h 16 m | Show | |
I'm going to ride with the Jets, which have won three games in a row. Winnipeg has scored three or more goals in each of its last 10 games. | |||||||
03-08-18 | LSU v. Mississippi State UNDER 144.5 | 77-80 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
These two teams just met this past Saturday and LSU held Mississippi State to 58 points while scoring 78. Now the teams meet again being very familiar with one another and in a much critical game as this is the second round of the SEC Tournament. The Tigers shot 51.9 percent from the field and hit 47.8 percent of their 3-point shots. I don't see a repeat of that here. Mississippi State ranks among the top 60 teams in the nation in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage. Note the neutral site, Scottrade Center in St. Louis, being the venue. That's a plus for the Under. This is a big arena where the St. Louis Blues play their home hockey games and is known as an Under arena for basketball teams. The SEC Tournament has never been held there until this year. So it's unfamilar to both teams. | |||||||
03-08-18 | SMU v. Connecticut +2 | 80-73 | Loss | -105 | 1 h 26 m | Show | |
SMU couldn't beat Connecticut when it had leading scorer Shake Milton and I don't see it beating the Huskies without him. SMU is 1-8 since Milton suffered a broken hand. The Mustangs are 2-6-1 ATS during this time frame. | |||||||
03-07-18 | Magic +7 v. Lakers | Top | 107-108 | Win | 100 | 16 h 8 m | Show |
The Lakers haven't been this high of a favorite since they had Magic Johnson. OK, not true. They were minus 8 hosting the Suns a month ago. But you get the point. This is a very high spread for the rebuilding, youthful Lakers to cover especially against a team that is way below-the-radar in terms of excellent point spread marks and talent. Orlando is a lottery team just like the Lakers. But the Magic have an underrated roster especially now with rookie Jonathan Isaac healthy joining Aaron Gordon, Nikola Vucevic and Evan Fournier. The Magic are much better than other lottery teams such as the Kings, Suns and Hawks. So the Lakers are overpriced here especially without their second-leading scorer Brandon Ingram, who is out with strained groin. The Magic actually hold a winning record - 10-8 - in games Isaac has played in. The rookie power forward, who was the sixth overall draft pick, had missed two months with a sprained ankle. Orlando has some surprising ATS marks such as covering 15 of the last 20 times as an underdog and going 9-2 ATS in its last 11 road contests. The Magic laid an egg against Utah's tough defense in their last game this past Monday at Salt Lake City. Orlando, though, has covered seven of the last eight times following an ATS loss. The Magic have covered 69 percent of their last 23 games and should find scoring a lot easier operating against the soft Lakers rather than the Jazz. LA is giving up an average of 115 points in its last nine games. The teams met in Orlando on Jan. 31 and the Magic blasted the Lakers, 127-105, despite not having Gordon then. Gordon leads Orlando in scoring and is averaging 17.2 points and 8.5 rebounds during his last six games. | |||||||
03-07-18 | Penguins v. Flyers -104 | 5-2 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
The Flyers are in stop-the-pain mode and getting back star forward Wayne Simmonds. The Penguins are coming off two straight overtime winners. The situation is ripe for the Flyers to win this home game. Philadelphia has dropped three in a row with the last two coming on the road against the Panthers and Lightning. The Flayers are likely to lose on Thursday when they play on the road against the Bruins. That's followed by tough home games against the Jets on Saturday and Golden Knights on Monday. So this is a crucial spot for the Flyers, who have double revenge motivation, too, going. Getting Simmonds back is huge, too. The Penguins aren't that fearsome on the road at 13-17-1. They aren't likely to have starting goalie Matt Murray back yet from a concussion. | |||||||
03-07-18 | Rockets v. Bucks OVER 215 | 110-99 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 9 m | Show | |
The Rockets are the No. 2 scoring team and have far too many weapons for the Bucks to slow them down. Houston has scored 119 or more points in four of its last six games. The Bucks had matchup problems against the Pacers in two of their last three games, but produced 118 points in their last home game. That was against the 76ers, who rank in the top three in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point shooting. Milwaukee has faced only two Western Conference opponents during its past 16 games. The Bucks gave up 134 points at home to the Nuggets and 114 points to the Pelicans in regulation also at home during those two meetings, both losses. | |||||||
03-07-18 | Penguins v. Flyers OVER 6 | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 42 m | Show | |
It's difficult to not pull the trigger on the Over in this matchup. I'm not fond of either goalie and the Penguins have been huge offensively. Pittsburgh has scored at least 3 goals in 12 of its last 13 games. The Penguins have netted at least four goals in eight of their last 11 games. The Flyers have given up 15 goals in their last three games. The Flyers get back Wayne Simmonds their third-leading goal scorer and a tremendous player. This series has an Over bias, too, with the Over cashing five of the last six times. |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ray Monohan | $864 |
William Burns | $483 |
Tom Macrina | $481 |
Joey Tron | $380 |
Ross Benjamin | $375 |
Ricky Tran | $369 |
Big Al McMordie | $234 |
Jack Jones | $161 |
Jesse Schule | $121 |
Will Rogers | $10 |