Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
05-05-24 | Golden Knights v. Stars -145 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 17 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Dallas over Vegas at 7:30 pm et on Sunday. You play for home ice advantage in the playoffs all season long and that's what the Stars have on Sunday as they host Vegas in a seventh-and-deciding game in the opening round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. The Golden Knights staved off elimination with a 2-0 win over the Stars in Game 6 on Friday. Note that Dallas is 71-43 (+11.4 net games) when coming off a loss over the last three seasons including a 21-11 (+5.8 net games) record in that situation this season. The Knights are 0-3 this season when coming off a shutout victory, as is the case here. Nothing has come easy for either team in this series but I look for the Stars to rise the occasion in Game 7. Take Dallas (10*). | |||||||
05-05-24 | Brewers -120 v. Cubs | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 46 m | Show |
N.L. Central Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee over Chicago at 2:20 pm et on Sunday. The Cubs evened this series at a game apiece with a 6-5 victory yesterday. I look for the Brewers to answer back on Sunday afternoon. Freddy Peralta has had his top flight stuff going this season, posting a 3.18 FIP and 0.86 WHIP in six starts. Current Cubs hitters are just 9-for-76 off of him including only five extra-base hits. Javier Assad will counter for Chicago. He'll be facing a Brewers club that ranks tops in baseball in day game OPS and second in OPS vs. right-handed pitching. Over the last seven days the Brew Crew rank seventh in baseball in OPS while the Cubs sit 21st. Both bullpens have struggled lately but Milwaukee's relievers have generally been lights out on the road, sporting a collective 2.15 ERA and 1.01 WHIP with eight saves converted and only two blown. Take Milwaukee (10*). | |||||||
05-05-24 | White Sox v. Cardinals UNDER 7.5 | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and St. Louis at 2:15 pm et on Sunday. While yesterday's game in St. Louis was higher scoring than expect I look for things to go back to 'normal' on Sunday as the White Sox and Cardinals wrap up their three-game series. This will be a battle of left-handed starting pitchers and that's notable as the White Sox and Cards rank 30th and 27th in OPS vs. lefties, respectively, this season. Garrett Crochet takes the ball for Chicago. While he has cooled off following a hot start to his big league career he still owns a respectable 4.01 FIP and 1.10 WHIP this season. Matthew Liberatore will get his first start of the campaign for the Cards. He has pitched fairly well out of the bullpen so far this season, logging a 4.19 FIP and 1.10 WHIP. St. Louis' bullpen has been steady all season while Chicago's is at least trending in the right direction with a 4.28 ERA and 1.39 WHIP over the last seven games (compared to 4.50 and 1.52 overall). Take the under (8*). | |||||||
05-05-24 | Magic v. Cavs -3 | Top | 94-106 | Win | 100 | 15 h 28 m | Show |
Game of the Week. My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Orlando at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Magic rallied for a win (and cover) in Game 6 of this series on Friday. That's par for the course as the home team has won each and every game in this series so far. I look for that trend to continue in Game 7 on Sunday afternoon in Cleveland. Note that the Cavaliers are 58-51 ATS when seeking revenge for a loss in which their opponent scored 100 points or more over the last three seasons including an 18-14 ATS mark in that situation this season. They're 54-50 ATS when coming off a loss over the last three seasons including a 20-14 ATS record this season. The Magic have had a double-digit advantage in terms of free throw attempts in each of the last two games and that's ultimately proved to be the difference from a pointspread perspective. As is often the case, I expect the script to flip as the scene shifts to Cleveland for Game 7 on Sunday. Take Cleveland (10*). | |||||||
05-04-24 | Braves v. Dodgers UNDER 9 | Top | 2-11 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
National League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Los Angeles at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. These two teams were involved in an extra innings thriller last night as the Dodgers produced a 4-3 victory. I expect runs to come at a premium again on Saturday as Atlanta sends Bryce Elder to the hill against Tyler Glasnow of the Dodgers. Elder was terrific in a three-start stint at Triple-A to start the season and has been solid in two big league outings as well, logging a 3.64 FIP and 1.33 WHIP. In those two starts with the Braves, Elder drew ground balls at nearly a 65% rate. While not sustainable, it's a positive sign for the right-hander, who you may remember earned an All-Star appearance after a hot start last season. Current Dodgers hitters are just 8-for-36 off of Elder with just two extra-base hits. Glasnow has quickly rounded into Cy Young contending form with his new club, posting a 2.72 FIP and 0.93 WHIP in 43 innings of work. He'll be facing a Braves team that ranks 30th (that's last place) in the majors in OPS over the last seven days. Current Atlanta hitters have gone 8-for-53 off of Glasnow with five extra-base hits. Both bullpens entered this series in good shape thanks to an off day on Thursday. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
05-04-24 | Maple Leafs v. Bruins UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
Eastern Conference First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Boston at 8 pm et on Saturday. If this series went any longer would probably see 5's on the board in terms of the total. The last three games have totalled four, three and three goals noting that one of those contests required overtime and another saw a meaningless goal scored in the game's final second. I'm expecting goals to come at a premium again in Saturday's seventh-and-deciding game in Boston. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 40-28 in the Maple Leafs last 68 games after scoring two goals or less in four straight contests, as is the case here, including a 3-0 mark in that situation over the last three seasons (this is the first time it has come up this season). Meanwhile, the Bruins have seen the 'under' go 11-3 when coming off a one-goal loss against a division opponent over the last three seasons including a 4-1 record in that spot this season. The 'under' is also a long-term 32-28 with Boston coming off three straight games that totalled four goals or less. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
05-04-24 | Marlins v. A's UNDER 7.5 | 4-20 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Oakland at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. The 'under' is 8-2-1 in the A's last 10 games following another low-scoring result to open this series last night. Entering last night's action, games played here in Oakland had totalled an average of just 7.1 runs this season. I'm expecting more of the same on Saturday as Miami sends left-hander Trevor Rogers to the hill against Paul Blackburn of the A's. Note that Oakland ranks 21st in the majors in OPS vs. left-handed pitching this season. The A's also check in tied for 27th in home OPS. Meanwhile, the Marlins rank 29th in baseball in road OPS and 26th against right-handed pitching. Rogers has been a bit of a mixed bag this season with a 3.39 FIP and 1.50 WHIP. The good news is he's getting ground balls at a better than 50% clip - well north of his career average of 43%. Blackburn will be looking to bounce back from consecutive shaky outings but still owns a 3.79 FIP and 1.09 WHIP on the campaign. Like Rogers, Blackburn has been drawing ground balls at north of a 50% clip. Both bullpens have been terrific lately but in the case of the A's, their relievers have been among the best in baseball. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
05-03-24 | Stars v. Golden Knights +104 | 0-2 | Win | 104 | 37 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Vegas over Dallas at 10 pm et on Friday. The Stars have impressively rallied from a 2-0 series deficit to push the Golden Knights to the brink of elimination thanks to three straight wins. Keep in mind, every game in this series has been close. I don't think Vegas will fold the tent as it returns home with an eye on forcing a seventh and deciding game in this series. Note that the Knights are 25-13 (+7.9 net games) all-time when coming off three or more consecutive losses including 12-6 (+5.2 net games) over the last three seasons and 5-2 (+1.8 net games) this season. Meanwhile, the Stars are just 20-21 (-8.9 net games) in their last 41 contests following three or more consecutive victories including a 9-8 (-3.3 net games) record in that spot this season. When seeking revenge for three straight losses against an opponent, the Knights have gone 5-1 (+5.0 net games) over the last three seasons and 16-9 (+6.0 net games) in franchise history. Take Vegas (8*). | |||||||
05-03-24 | White Sox v. Cardinals UNDER 7.5 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and St. Louis at 8:15 pm et on Friday. If you're looking for offensive fireworks on Friday night you might want to look elsewhere. The White Sox have been putrid on the road where they rank 29th in the majors in OPS. They'll face a tough challenge on Friday as St. Louis hands the ball to Sonny Gray and his sparkling 1.47 FIP and 0.94 WHIP. Gray has quite simply been one of the best starters in baseball in the early going this season and I'm confident he can keep it going against a Chicago team that ranks 29th in baseball in OPS vs. right-handed pitching as well. Current White Sox hitters are 25-for-112 off of Gray with just six extra-base hits. Brad Keller will get his first start for Chicago after coming over from Kansas City. While I'm certainly not expecting big things from Keller in the long-term picture, he is a ground ball pitcher that can navigate a Cardinals order that ranks 23rd in the majors in home OPS this season. Keller has held current Cardinals hitters to just seven hits in 31 at-bats including only two extra-base knocks. The two bullpens are polar opposites in this matchup with White Sox relievers struggling mightily and Cards relievers among the best in baseball. The good news here is the Cards should have one less half-inning to see whoever it is the White Sox elect to trot out of the 'pen with St. Louis projected to win comfortably. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
05-03-24 | Cavs v. Magic -3.5 | 96-103 | Win | 100 | 34 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando minus the points over Cleveland at 7 pm et on Friday. A 104-103 loss in Game 5 of this series in Cleveland should only boost Orlando's confidence as it returns home looking to force a seventh and deciding game in this series. Of course, the home team has dominated this series so far going a perfect 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS. I say the Magic should have received a confidence boost following a one-point loss in Game 5 as that was progress after they were defeated by 14 and 10 points in the first two games in Cleveland. Orlando has now held six straight opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. You would have to go back 13 games to find the last time it allowed an opponent to get off more than 88 field goal attempts. Note that the Cavaliers are just 16-27 ATS in their last 43 games as a road underdog of six points or less including a 6-9 ATS mark in that situation this season. They're also just 13-17 ATS in their last 30 contests following three straight ATS defeats, as is the case here, including a 4-5 ATS record this season. On the flip side, the Magic are 26-14 ATS in their last 40 games following three straight ATS victories including an 11-6 ATS mark in that situation this season. Orlando checks in 30-19 ATS in its last 49 contests as a home favorite including 21-7 ATS this season. Take Orlando (8*). | |||||||
05-02-24 | Knicks v. 76ers UNDER 200.5 | Top | 118-115 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 40 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Philadelphia at 9 pm et on Thursday. This series has tightened up considerably in the last two games with just 189 and 194 points scored in regulation time (Game 5 went 'over' the total thanks to overtime). That's about what we would expect from two familiar, physical teams. Note that the 'under' is 18-13 in the Knicks last 31 games following an upset loss at home including a 5-1 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 62-54 with New York seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent over the last three seasons including a 21-15 record this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 8-4 with the 76ers playing at home with the total set between 200 and 209.5 points over the last three seasons, which is the case here at the time of writing, including a 3-2 mark in that spot this season. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
05-02-24 | Knicks +3.5 v. 76ers | 118-115 | Win | 100 | 33 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York plus the points over Philadelphia at 9 pm et on Thursday. The Knicks let the 76ers off the hook in Game 5 of this series on Tuesday. I look for them to finish the job on Thursday, however, as the scene shifts to Philadelphia for Game 6. Note that New York is 5-3 SU in its last game played in the City of Brotherly Love. The Knicks are also 24-19 ATS when coming off an upset loss over the last three seasons including an 8-3 ATS mark in that situation this season. In fact, they're 22-11 ATS when coming off a loss of any kind this season including 9-2 ATS when that defeat came by six points or less, as is the case here. Philadelphia checks in 9-17 ATS in its last 26 games following an upset win on the road including a 2-5 ATS mark this season. The 76ers are a long-term 34-49 ATS when coming off an upset win over a divisional foe including 0-2 ATS in that situation this season. Take New York (8*). | |||||||
05-02-24 | Bruins +100 v. Maple Leafs | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
Eastern Conference First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Boston over Toronto at 8 pm et on Thursday. The Bruins let the Maple Leafs off the hook in Game 5 of this series in Boston, failing to clinch their spot in the second round. They'll get another opportunity to do so on Thursday and I look for them to take full advantage this time around. Note that Boston is 28-10 (+14.4 net games) in its last 38 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent by one goal including a 12-4 (+6.6 net games) record in that situation this season. The Bruins are also 16-5 (+8.2 net games) when coming off a home loss by a single goal including a 6-3 (+0.8 net games) mark this season. Meanwhile, Toronto staved off elimination on Tuesday but is still a long-term 12-13 (-2.1 net games) when facing elimination in a playoff series. Take Boston (10*). | |||||||
05-02-24 | Cubs v. Mets UNDER 8.5 | 6-7 | Loss | -119 | 7 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and New York at 1:10 pm et on Thursday. This series has been as low-scoring as expected and I look for more of the same in Thursday's series-finale in Queens. Rookie Ben Brown will get the start for Chicago. He's impressed so far, logging a 3.14 FIP and 1.17 WHIP in three big league starts. He draws a favorable matchup here with the Mets ranking 26th in the majors in home OPS and 25th in OPS over the last seven days. Adrian Houser will counter for New York. The Mets haven't hesitated to lift him from games early should he struggle. I certainly don't think he's as bad as he's shown in his last two outings. Current Cubs hitters are 12-for-50 off off Houser with only two extra-base hits. Of note, Ian Happ has worn him out going 4-for-11 with four RBI (the only RBI the current Cubs roster have racked up against him). Again, we're talking about minimal damage with Happ recording the Cubs only two extra-base hits off of Houser (both doubles). The Cubs check in ranked 29th in baseball in OPS over the last seven days and 25th in road OPS this season. Keep in mind, the Mets sport one of baseball's best bullpens so far this season, entering last night's action with a collective 2.85 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
05-01-24 | Heat +14.5 v. Celtics | 84-118 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami plus the points over Boston at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday. The Celtics are coming off consecutive wins (and covers) in Miami to take over this series and push the Heat to the brink of elimination on Wednesday. It is worth noting that Boston is playing with a rather small margin for error from a pointspread perspective at least as it has gotten off 86 or fewer field goal attempts in all four games in this series and has yet to make good on 40 or more field goals. Miami has of course been awful offensively save for Game 2. Note that the Heat are 14-10 ATS when seeking revenge for a double-digit home loss against an opponent over the last three seasons and 4-2 ATS in that situation this season. They're also 31-16 ATS in their last 47 contests when playing with double-revenge including a 7-4 ATS mark this season. Meanwhile, the Celtics are a long-term 101-107 ATS after holding the opposition to 90 points or less in consecutive games, as is the case here, including an 0-3 ATS record in that situation over the last three seasons. Here, Boston will be looking to secure a third straight ATS victory over Miami but hasn't accomplished that feat over the last 16 meetings in the series. Take Miami (8*). | |||||||
05-01-24 | Braves v. Mariners UNDER 7.5 | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Seattle at 3:40 pm et on Wednesday. Both of these teams are riding identical eight-game 'under' streaks and I'm expecting more of the same in Wednesday's series finale. The Braves and Mariners rank 27th and 29th respectively in OPS over the last seven days. Left-hander Chris Sale will get the start for Atlanta on Wednesday and the Mariners rank 27th in the majors in OPS vs. southpaws this season. Current Seattle hitters are a combined 4-for-25 off of Sale with just one extra-base hit. Keep in mind, Sale is enjoying a resurgence this season having posted a 3.48 FIP and 0.92 WHIP through five starts. Emerson Hancock may be thought of as one of the weaker links in a stellar Mariners starting rotation. He's fared just fine in all but one of his five starts this season, however. Note that Hancock has kept the line moving for the M's lately, working exactly six innings while allowing two earned runs or less in three straight starts. The two bullpens have been among the best in baseball this season. The Mariners 'pen entered last night's action sporting a collective 2.42 ERA and 1.02 WHIP with seven saves converted and only one blown. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
05-01-24 | Pirates v. A's UNDER 8 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Oakland at 3:35 pm et on Wednesday. I'm not expecting much in the way of offensive fireworks as the Pirates and A's wrap up their Interleague series in Oakland on Wednesday afternoon. The Pirates check in last in the majors in OPS over the last seven days. Meanwhile, Oakland, while enjoying a bit of an offensive surge of late, ranks 28th in baseball in OPS vs. right-handed pitching this season. Quinn Priester will get the start for Pittsburgh. His ground-ball numbers have been off the charts this season. Oddly enough home runs have been an issue but that should be negated by pitching at cavernous Oakland Coliseum (with no current A's hitter having seen him before). Ross Stripling checks in with a respectable 3.54 FIP on the season. Noting that the Pirates rank 29th in baseball in OPS vs. righties there's a path for continued success from Stripling here. Current Pirates hitters are 12-for-39 against him but only Andrew McCutchen has enjoyed considerable success (6-for-11). Keep in mind McCutchen is hitting .190 this season. The A's bullpen has quietly been among the best in baseball this season with a collective 2.51 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. Pittsburgh's staff hasn't been quite as reliable in the later innings but again the matchup helps in this case. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-30-24 | Predators +106 v. Canucks | 2-1 | Win | 106 | 15 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Nashville over Vancouver at 10 pm et on Tuesday. The Predators let the Canucks off the hook in Game 4 of this series, blowing a 3-1 lead with three minutes remaining before giving up the game-winning goal early in overtime. I don't think Nashville is finished just yet, however, as the scene shifts to Vancouver for Game 5 on Tuesday. Note that the Predators have thrived in similar situations in the past. Nashville is 43-31 (+14.2 net games) over the last three seasons when seeking revenge for a loss in which its opponent scored four goals or more, as is the case here. It has gone 18-7 (+12.2 net games) in that situation this season. The Preds are also 10-5 (+4.9 net games) when coming off consecutive losses this season. The Canucks are a long-term 8-13 (-9.2 net games) when attempting to close out a series. They're 1-2 (-2.2 net games) when coming off consecutive one-goal victories this season. Take Nashville (8*). | |||||||
04-30-24 | Pacers v. Bucks +4.5 | 92-115 | Win | 100 | 16 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee plus the points over Indiana at 9:30 pm et on Tuesday. This series obviously hasn't gone the Bucks way and while it's highly unlikely we see them rally from a 3-1 series deficit, I do think they'll give the Pacers all they can handle in Game 5 on Tuesday. Note that Indiana is just 11-21 ATS in its last 32 games as a road favorite including a 7-8 ATS mark in that situation this season. Indiana is also just 9-11 ATS when coming off three straight games in which it scored 120 or more points this season. The Bucks are a flawless 4-0 ATS as a home underdog this season including a 109-94 Game 1 victory on this floor. They're also a long-term 160-117 ATS when coming off three straight losses including a 2-1 ATS record this season. Take Milwaukee (8*). | |||||||
04-30-24 | Guardians v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 9-10 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Houston -1.5 runs over Cleveland at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Astros righted the ship with a pair of wins over the Rockies in Mexico and now return home to host the Guardians on Tuesday night. Houston has been one of baseball's biggest disappointments so far this season but it's still very early. I like their chances of teeing off on Guardians starter Carlos Carrasco on Tuesday. Note that Carrasco owns a lofty 5.04 FIP and 1.63 WHIP in five starts this season. Current Astros hitters have gone a combined 35-for-127 against him including seven home runs. Of note, Yordan Alvarez is 2-for-2 with two home runs off of Carrasco. With all of that experience there's plenty of knowledge to impart up and down the lineup. It's a much different story for Astros starter Hunter Brown against the Guardians. Only Ramon Laureano has seen him before and he's gone 0-for-5. Brown isn't having a banner sophomore campaign by any means but I'll take a flyer on him here noting that he has pitched better in his last two outings including a home start against the Braves in which he gave up just two earned runs over six innings. The Guardians bullpen has been superior to that of the Astros this season but over the last week or so, it's been more of a wash. Take Houston -1.5 runs (10*). | |||||||
04-29-24 | Lakers v. Nuggets -7 | 106-108 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver minus the points over Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Monday. The Nuggets weren't able to complete the series sweep in Los Angeles on Saturday but I look for them to bounce back as the scene shifts back to Denver for Game 5 on Monday. Note that the Lakers are 16-28 ATS in their last 44 games following an upset win including a 6-10 ATS record in that situation this season. They're also 15-18 ATS in their last 33 contests following a double-digit home win including a 4-7 ATS mark this season. Meanwhile, the Nuggets are 18-9 ATS in their last 27 games following a double-digit upset loss including a 6-3 ATS record this season. Take Denver (8*). | |||||||
04-29-24 | Cubs v. Mets UNDER 8 | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and New York at 7:10 pm et on Monday. The Mets are coming off a win to avoid the series sweep at the hands of the Cardinals on Sunday but their offensive struggles continue at home. They rank 21st in the majors in home OPS this season and will likely have their hands full once again on Monday. Jameson Taillon will get the start for the visiting Cubs. He's held current Mets hitters to 13-for-63 at the plate with just five extra-base hits. On the season, Taillon owns a respectable 3.46 FIP and 1.13 WHIP in 10 2/3 innings of work. Luis Severino will counter for New York. He's held steady with a 3.33 FIP and 1.26 WHIP in 27 innings pitched. Current Cubs hitters are a combined 4-for-21 off of Severino with all four hits going for singles. Note that the Cubs rank 20th in the majors in road OPS this season. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
04-28-24 | Oilers v. Kings +133 | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Edmonton at 10:30 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Kings in Game 2 of this series and the Oilers in Game 3. I'll switch gears once again and back Los Angeles as it looks to bounce back from a 6-1 drubbing two nights ago. Note that the Oilers are a long-term loser at 73-83 (-29.2 net games) in their last 156 games after scoring six goals or more in their previous contest including a 6-8 (-8.0 net games) mark in that situation this season. The Kings are 50-36 (+26.4 net games) in their last 86 games when seeking revenge for a loss by four goals or more against an opponent. Additionally, Los Angeles is a perfect 3-0 this season when coming off a game in which it allowed six or more goals. Take Los Angeles (8*). | |||||||
04-28-24 | Wolves v. Suns OVER 210.5 | 122-116 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Phoenix at 9:30 pm et on Sunday. In what could be the Suns last stand in this series, we'll call for another relatively high-scoring contest on Sunday. Note that the 'over' is now 78-53 in Minnesota's last 131 road games including a 23-19 mark this season. The 'over' is also 24-21 in the Timberwolves last 45 contests following three straight victories including a 13-6 record this season. The Suns have seen the 'over' go a perfect 7-0 off consecutive double-digit losses over the last three seasons including a 3-0 mark this season. The 'over' is also 9-7 in Phoenix's last 16 contests when seeking revenge for a double-digit home loss against an opponent including a 5-2 record in that situation this season. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
04-28-24 | Diamondbacks v. Mariners UNDER 7.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Seattle at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. The 'under' has cashed in five straight games involving the Mariners while the Diamondbacks are on a three-game 'under' streak of their own. I look for those streaks to continue for at least one more day. Brandon Pfaadt gets the start for Arizona. He owns a 3.92 FIP and 1.17 WHIP this season. The Mariners rank 27th in baseball in home OPS. Logan Gilbert will counter for Seattle. He's off to a fine start to the season with a 3.34 FIP and 0.80 WHIP. The D'Backs are middle of the pack in terms of road OPS but it's worth noting that Gilbert has held current Arizona hitters to 8-for-36 at the plate with just one extra-base hit (a Randal Grichuk home run). Take the under (8*). | |||||||
04-27-24 | Yankees v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | 15-3 | Loss | -102 | 13 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Milwaukee at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. I'm anticipating a well-pitched game between the Yankees and Brewers on Saturday, unlike what we saw in the opener of this series last night. Carlos Rodon will get the start for the visiting Yankees. He had a positive Spring and has taken another step in the right direction in five regular season starts, posting a 4.14 FIP (after logging a 5.79 FIP last season). Rodon will be facing a Brewers club that ranks 27th in the majors in OPS vs. left-handed pitching. Journeyman right-hander Joe Ross will counter for Milwaukee. He has proven serviceable at the back of the Brewers starting rotation this season, recording a 3.32 FIP. It's not as if the Yankees are tearing the cover off the baseball, ranking 14th in the majors in OPS and 20th over the last seven days. Both bullpens entered last night's action sporting collective ERA's south of three. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
04-27-24 | Celtics -9 v. Heat | 104-84 | Win | 100 | 34 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over Miami at 6 pm et on Saturday. The Heat pulled off the massive upset in Game 2 of this series, riding a hot shooting performance from Tyler Herro to a stunning double-digit victory in Boston. I look for the Celtics to rebound as the series shifts to Miami for Game 3 on Saturday. Note that Boston is 38-26 ATS in its last 64 games following an upset loss including a 9-7 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the Heat are just 11-17 ATS in their last 28 contests as a home underdog including a 1-9 ATS record this season. Take Boston (8*). | |||||||
04-27-24 | Celtics v. Heat UNDER 202.5 | Top | 104-84 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
Eastern Conference First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Miami at 6 pm et on Saturday. Game 2 of this series found its way 'over' the total as the Heat staged a massive double-digit upset win. I look for a much different story to unfold as the scene shifts to Miami on Saturday. The pace certainly wouldn't lead you to believe we would have seen an 'over' result in Game 2. Miami made the most of its 75 field goal attempts while holding Boston to just 80. Keep in mind, Game 1 was played at a slow pace as well with the Celtics hoisting up 82 and the Heat 81. Note that the 'under' is 36-29 in Boston's last 65 games following an upset loss including a 9-7 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' is 17-11 in Miami's last 28 games as a home underdog including a 6-4 record this season. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-26-24 | Wolves v. Suns -4 | 126-109 | Loss | -109 | 39 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Minnesota at 10:30 pm et on Friday. This spot sets up beautifully for the Suns as they return home down 2-0 against the Timberwolves on Friday. All is not yet lost for Phoenix as it brings confidence to Game 3 knowing it has gone 25-16 on its home floor this season. Minnesota has failed to cover the spread in each of its last seven straight-up losses on the road. Also note that the T'Wolves are just 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games when leading a playoff series and 1-4 ATS this season following consecutive ATS wins as a favorite. Meanwhile, the Suns are 35-21 ATS in their last 56 contests as a home favorite of six points or less including a 12-10 ATS mark in that situation this season. They're also 6-3 ATS when coming off a double-digit road loss this season, as is the case here. Take Phoenix (8*). | |||||||
04-26-24 | Oilers -125 v. Kings | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 38 h 29 m | Show |
First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Edmonton over Los Angeles at 10:30 pm et on Friday. A back-and-forth series was to be expected between these familiar divisional foes - meeting for the third time in as many years in the opening round of the playoffs. Here, we'll look for the Oilers to rebound following Wednesday's overtime loss at home. Credit Edmonton for battling back on multiple occasions in that game after digging an early 2-0 hole. The Oilers are well-positioned to bounce back on Friday noting that they've gone 29-14 (+9.7 net games) in their last 43 games following a loss by a single goal. They're also 30-16 (+7.9 net games) when seeking revenge for a loss in which they allowed five goals or more, as is the case here. The Kings are just 19-26 (-11.2 net games) in their last 45 contest after scoring four goals or more in consecutive games, which is the situation on Friday. Finally, we'll note that the Oilers are 8-4 (+2.5 net games) in their last 12 meetings here in Los Angeles. Take Edmonton (10*). | |||||||
04-26-24 | Clippers v. Mavs OVER 209 | Top | 90-101 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 51 m | Show |
First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Dallas at 8 pm et on Friday. The first two games in this series both stayed 'under' the total. In fact, neither contest came close to toppling the total and as a result we're working with a much lower number in Game 3 on Friday. I see a catalyst for change at work here as the scene shifts to Dallas. I certainly don't expect either team to shoot as poorly as they did in Games 1 and 2. Note that the 'over' is 26-23 in the Clippers last 49 games after giving up 100 points or less in their previous contest including an 8-6 mark in that situation this season. The 'over' is also 25-21 with the Clips coming off a game where they scored 100 points or less including a 5-3 record this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 45-37 in the Mavericks last 82 contests as a favorite of between 3.5 and 9.5 points including a 17-13 mark in that situation this season. The two regular season meetings between these two teams here in Dallas totalled 270 and 231 points. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
04-26-24 | Guardians v. Braves OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Friday. The Braves are coming off a string of low-scoring games but I look for a different story to unfold as we see a battle of southpaw starting pitchers in Logan Allen and Chris Sale. The Guardians aren't known for their offense but they've been on a tear against left-handed pitching this season, ranking third in the majors with an .826 OPS. The Braves are just two spots behind them with a .793 OPS against lefties. Of course, it hasn't really mattered who Atlanta has faced at home - the Braves rank second in baseball with an .804 home OPS. Logan Allen continues to labor through his second big league season with a 5.50 FIP and 1.39 WHIP in five starts. Chris Sale has fared much better for the Braves, sporting a 3.39 FIP and 1.05 WHIP. With his durability always in question, I do think some regression is in order for the veteran left-hander. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
04-26-24 | Cardinals v. Mets UNDER 8 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and New York at 7:10 pm et on Friday. Neither of these offenses have impressed me all that much in the early going this season and I think the starting pitching matchup serves our purposes well on Friday night in Queens. Miles Mikolas had a terrific Spring for the Cardinals but that hasn't carried over to the regular season as he checks in sporting a FIP north of five. This might be just the matchup to get him back on track, however. Note that current Mets hitters have gone 32-for-137 off of him with just 12 extra base hits. Only D.J. Stewart and Tyrone Taylor have managed to take Mikolas deep. Of note, Pete Alonso is just 2-for-12 off of Mikolas with a pair of singles. Mets starter Jose Butto has been terrific through three starts this season, sporting a 2.59 FIP and 1.04 WHIP. No current Cardinals hitter has seen Butto before. Both bullpens have been serviceable in the early going, particularly when holding leads (15 converted saves and only five blown combined). Take the under (8*). | |||||||
04-25-24 | Nuggets v. Lakers +1.5 | 112-105 | Loss | -120 | 16 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Denver at 10 pm et on Thursday. Most have already advanced the Nuggets past the Lakers as they head to Los Angeles with a commanding 2-0 series lead. In fact, we're already hearing talk of Denver's impending championship repeat. Usually when that starts happening, the team runs into some trouble and I expect that to be the case with the Nuggets on Thursday. Note that Denver is just 19-23 ATS in its last 42 road games with the line set between +3 and -3 including a 5-8 ATS mark this season. The Nuggets are also 24-42 ATS in their last 66 contests following three straight wins, going 7-15 ATS in that situation this season. The Lakers are 12-10 ATS in their last 22 games following consecutive road losses including a 3-2 ATS mark in that spot this season. They're also 31-20 ATS in their last 51 contests after scoring 105 points or less in their previous game, as is the case here, including an 8-2 ATS record in that situation this season. Take Los Angeles (8*). | |||||||
04-25-24 | Knicks v. 76ers -4.5 | Top | 114-125 | Win | 100 | 36 h 42 m | Show |
Eastern Conference First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over New York at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. The Knicks held serve at home, winning each of the first two games in this series to head to Philadelphia ahead 2-0. I still think the potential is there for this to be a long series and look for the 76ers to bounce back in Game 3. With that being said, it's worth noting that the Knicks have gone 1-17 ATS in their 18 road losses this season. New York is a long-term 39-54 ATS when coming off a home win by three points or less including a 3-6 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons and 1-2 ATS this season. Meanwhile, Philadelphia is 62-49 ATS in its last 111 contests as a home favorite including a 21-12 ATS record this season. The 76ers are also 31-23 ATS in their last 54 games following a road loss including a 13-6 ATS mark this season. Take Philadelphia (10*). | |||||||
04-25-24 | Phillies v. Reds UNDER 8 | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Cincinnati at 1:10 pm et on Thursday. We saw a high-scoring contest between these two teams last night as the Reds took a second straight win in the series by a score of 7-4. I'm anticipating a much lower-scoring affair in Thursday's series finale. Zack Wheeler will take the ball for Philadelphia. He went six innings allowing just one earned run while striking out 10 against the Reds back on April 3rd. Wheeler checks in sporting a 2.42 FIP and 0.89 WHIP this season. Nick Martinez has had a run of tough luck for the Reds in his first two starts this season. While his ERA approaches five his FIP sits at a respectable 2.98. Behind Martinez is a Reds bullpen that has been quietly impressive this season, particularly at home where it entered last night's action sporting a collective 3.15 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
04-25-24 | Brewers v. Pirates OVER 7 | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 4 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Pittsburgh at 12:35 pm et on Thursday. I think 'under' bettors may have been lulled into a false sense of security after three straight low-scoring games to open this series. While this starting pitching matchup looks to be a good one on paper, the fact is both lineups have enjoyed considerable success against their opponent. Current Pirates hitters are 21-for-70 off of Freddy Peralta with Bryan Reynolds, Andrew McCutchen and Ke'Bryan Hayes all taking him deep. Meanwhile, current Brewers hitters are 17-for-44 off of Mitch Keller with four different players taking him out of the park. Neither team has had a day off in the last week and given the close nature of recent games you have to figure both bullpens are somewhat depleted. I'll take my chances with the 'over' at such a low posted total. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
04-24-24 | Kings +169 v. Oilers | 5-4 | Win | 169 | 14 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Edmonton at 10 pm et on Wednesday. The Kings got schooled in the opener of this series on Monday, allowing seven goals in a lopsided defeat. I do think we see them bounce back in Game 2 on Wednesday, noting they've gone 48-33 (+16.2 net games) when seeking revenge for a same season loss against an opponent over the last three seasons. Over the same stretch, Los Angeles has gone 10-7 (+4.2 net games) in triple-revenge situations, as is the case here. The Oilers are 9-16 (-18.4 net games) after giving up four goals or more in their previous contest this season. They're also just 10-11 (-9.4 net games) after scoring five goals or more in their previous game this season. All is not lost for the Kings following that setback in Game 1. For road teams in the first two games of a playoff series, it's always all about earning a split at the very least. I'm confident the Kings can accomplish that on Wednesday and we're being offered a generous return. Take Los Angeles (8*). | |||||||
04-24-24 | Mariners v. Rangers OVER 9 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
A.L. West Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Texas at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a low-scoring contest between these two teams last night as the Mariners cruised to a 4-0 victory behind another strong pitching performance from Logan Gilbert. I look for a different story to unfold on Wednesday as Seattle sends Bryce Miller to the hill against veteran Jon Gray of Texas. Miller hasn't fared well in limited work against the Rangers, allowing their current hitters to collect 10 hits in 25 at-bats with five of those knocks going for extra bases and three for home runs. Not only that but Miller has recorded only a 3:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio against them. The Mariners bullpen has been terrific but Miller is generally good for five or six innings and I expect the Rangers to get their opportunities against him. Jon Gray has held up reasonably well in the early going this season but I do think regression is on the way. Note that current Mariners hitters are just 14-for-88 against him but Mitch Haniger is 2-for-6 with a pair of home runs and Ty France and Julio Rodriguez have both gone deep against him as well. In fact, of the 10 Mariners hitters that have faced him all but two have collected at least a hit. Note that Gray has worked five innings or less in seven of his last nine starts so there's a good chance we'll see plenty of the Rangers bullpen. Texas relievers entered this series sporting a collective 4.86 ERA and 1.37 WHIP on the season. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
04-24-24 | Astros v. Cubs OVER 7.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Chicago at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. This one sets up as a back-and-forth high-scoring game as the Astros send rookie Spencer Arrighetti to the mound against Jameson Taillon of the Cubs. Arrighetti is in the Houston starting rotation out of necessity only with Cristian Javier joining Framber Valdez on the shelf. The rookie has made two starts and labored through both, recording a 3.44 FIP (that number has only been held in check by the fact that he's yet to allow a home run) and 2.29 WHIP. Behind Arrighetti is an Astros bullpen that has been among the worst in baseball this season. Entering last night's action, Houston relievers had recorded a collective 5.36 ERA and 1.52 WHIP with only two saves converted and six blown. The Cubs entered this series averaging 6.2 runs per game at home this season and scored seven runs in last night's victory. Taillon faces the tall task of silencing the Astros bats. I say it's a tall task because he has struggled mightily against current Houston hitters, allowing them to go 27-for-78 with 12 extra-base hits. Not only that but he has recorded just eight strikeouts while walking six against current Astros hitters. The Cubs bullpen has posted solid overall numbers but can be had in the later innings, as evidenced by the fact that it has converted five saves while also blowing five. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
04-23-24 | Mavs -2.5 v. Clippers | Top | 96-93 | Win | 100 | 40 h 46 m | Show |
Western Conference First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Tuesday. One record-setting poor shooting quarter effectively sunk the Mavericks in the opener of this series on Sunday. Dallas didn't get off to the start it had hoped for in that contest but still had hope after trailing by 12 points following the first quarter. From there it was a 22-8 second frame in favor of the Clippers and that was essentially that for Game 1. With that being said, the Mavs did show some fight, ultimately making the final score respectable thanks to a hot shooting second half. I do think we'll see them carry over some of the positive momentum from that strong second half in Game 2 on Tuesday. As indicated by the line, the Mavs are still the superior team in this matchup and check in 29-18 ATS in their last 47 games as a road favorite of six points or less including a 15-4 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the Clips are just 12-16 ATS in their last 28 contests as a home underdog including a 2-4 ATS record this season. Take Dallas (10*). | |||||||
04-23-24 | Avalanche v. Jets UNDER 6.5 | 5-2 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Winnipeg at 9:30 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair to open this series on Sunday. I don't think either coach came away particularly pleased, even if Rick Bowness had to be happy that his team did come away victorious. Look for a much different style of game to unfold in Game 2 on Tuesday, noting that the 'under' is 42-24 with the Avalanche seeking revenge for a same season loss against an opponent including a 13-8 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 8-2 in the Jets last 10 contests when coming off four straight 'over' results including a 2-0 mark this season. Keep in mind, the Jets check in having allowed just 2.5 goals per game on home ice this season. They'll most definitely get some push-back from the Avs here but I think it lends itself to a lower-scoring affair. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
04-23-24 | Mets v. Giants UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
National League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a relatively low-scoring game between these two teams last night and I expect more of the same on Tuesday. Luis Severino entered the season with rather low expectations as he made the move from the Bronx to Queens to join the Mets. However, the veteran right-hander had a terrific Spring and has picked up where he left off in the regular season, recording a serviceable 3.70 FIP and 1.38 WHIP. The Giants don't have a lot to go on against Severino as their current hitters are a combined 2-for-28 against him with a pair of singles. Behind Severino is a Mets bullpen that entered this series among the best in baseball, sporting a collective 2.95 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. Giants ace Logan Webb has been terrific in the early going this season, posting a 2.85 FIP and 1.17 WHIP in 30 2/3 innings of work. Webb is capable of giving the Giants seven-plus quality innings on any given night and he draws a favorable matchup here as current Mets hitters are 13-for-73 against him with only four extra-base hits. Pete Alonso has homered off of Webb but is just 1-for-11 against him. The Giants bullpen hasn't been great this season but again that's not as much of a concern with Webb starting as they may only be asked to piece together an inning or two. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-22-24 | Kings v. Oilers UNDER 6 | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -120 | 25 h 26 m | Show |
First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Edmonton at 10 pm et on Monday. When you think of the Edmonton Oilers, low-scoring games aren't necessarily the first thing that comes to mind. With that being said, the Oilers have recorded an 18-20-3 o/u record on home ice this season and the 'under' is a perfect 4-0 in their last four meetings with the Kings. Los Angeles has posted a 13-26-2 o/u mark on the road this season with an average total of just 5.7 goals scored. Note that the 'under' is 61-50 in the Kings last 111 contests following an 'over' result including an 18-12 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 38-33 in Los Angeles' last 71 games when seeking revenge for a loss in which its opponent scored four goals or more, which is the situation here, including a 16-10 record in that spot this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 21-18 in Edmonton's last 39 games following a loss by three goals or more, as is the case here, including an 8-6 mark this season. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-22-24 | Blue Jays v. Royals UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 109 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
American League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Kansas City at 7:40 pm et on Monday. This one sets up as a well-pitched affair between the Blue Jays and Royals at Kauffman Stadium on Monday. Yusei Kikuchi had an awful Spring for the Blue Jays but has had no such trouble in his first four regular season starts, recording a 2.24 FIP and 1.15 WHIP in 21 2/3 innings of work. Current Royals hitters have combined to go 7-for-35 against him with just three extra-base hits. Bobby Witt Jr. is 0-for-4 against Kikuchi with a pair of strikeouts and one walk. Brady Singer will counter for Kansas City. Like Kikuchi, he struggled in the Spring but has pitched reasonably well in his first four regular season outings, logging a 4.06 FIP and 0.86 WHIP. Current Blue Jays hitters have gone a miserable 8-for-41 against Singer including just on extra-base hit (a home run by Daulton Varsho). Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is 0-for-7 in his career against Singer. Neither bullpen has been lights out this season but I do think both starters are capable of working relatively deep into this ball game. Of note, the two bullpens entered yesterday's action having combined to record 12 saves while blowing only three. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-21-24 | Predators v. Canucks -140 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 24 h 58 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Vancouver over Nashville at 10 pm et on Sunday. The Canucks dropped their regular season finale in Winnipeg but I look for them to bounce back in Game 1 of their opening round series against the Predators. This is more of a mismatch than the line indicates in my opinion. Nashville made a late push but was really only a mediocre Western Conference team all season. Vancouver on the other hand was a front-runner for much of the way before Dallas ultimately overtook it for the top spot in the West. Note that the Preds are just 9-13 (-4.1 net games) in their last 23 Game 1's while the Canucks are 22-9 (+10.1 net games) off a loss this season. Take Vancouver (10*). | |||||||
04-21-24 | Mavs v. Clippers OVER 222.5 | 97-109 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Los Angeles at 3:30 pm et on Sunday. We've seen this total drop considerably since opening but I think it's moving in the wrong direction. Both teams were trending faster down the stretch. The Clippers, while enduring their share of struggles, were actually rather consistent offensively over the final month of the regular season. They check in having connected on 40 or more field goals in six straight and 13 of their last 15 games overall. The problem is, their defensive play has left a lot to be desired this season. They've allowed eight of their last nine opponents to get off at least 88 field goal attempts. The Mavericks essentially punted their final two games of the regular season but prior to that had made good on 46, 50 and 43 field goals over their last three contests. They've hoisted more than 90 field goal attempts in eight of their last 15 games. Note that the 'over' is 23-20 in the Mavs last 43 road games with the total set in the 220's including a 7-4 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 36-28 in the Clippers last 64 games following consecutive 'under' results, as is the case here, including an 11-9 record this season. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
04-21-24 | Red Sox v. Pirates -140 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -140 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh over Boston at 1:35 pm et on Sunday. The Red Sox have proven to be road warriors in the early going this season but I look for them to get tripped up in the finale of their series in Pittsburgh on Sunday afternoon. Josh Winckowski will get the start for Boston. He has logged 11 2/3 innings in relief this season, posting an ugly 2.06 WHIP. Keep in mind, for his career he has recorded a 1.54 WHIP so it's not like there's a lot of positive regression to be expected. Veteran left-hander Martin Perez had a terrific Spring for the Pirates and has picked up right where he left off in the regular season, posting a 3.43 FIP and 1.26 WHIP in four starts. He did labor through his most recent outing against the red hot Mets but I'm confident we'll see him bounce back here. Take Pittsburgh (10*). | |||||||
04-20-24 | Lakers v. Nuggets -7 | 103-114 | Win | 100 | 36 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. We'll fade the Lakers off their play-in victory over the Pelicans earlier this week. The Nuggets are rested and waiting to begin defense of their NBA title and I look for them to come up with a big performance on Saturday. Note that Los Angeles is 61-69 ATS in its last 130 road games including a 19-22 ATS mark this season. The Lakers are also 16-33 ATS in their last 49 contests following consecutive ATS victories, as is the case here, including a 5-10 ATS record in that situation this season. Denver is a long-term 78-68 ATS in its last 146 games played on three or more days' rest including a 10-6 ATS mark over the last three seasons. Keep in mind the Nuggets are also 21-18 ATS as a home favorite this season. I'm not convinced this will be a quick series but I do anticipate Denver gaining the upper hand in the opener. Take Denver (8*). | |||||||
04-20-24 | Rangers +140 v. Braves | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas over Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Saturday. I like the Rangers to bounce back on Saturday after they were crushed by the Braves in the opener of this series last night. Nathan Eovaldi is in line for a bounce back performance of his own after he allowed two home runs and five earned runs in an 8-5 loss against the Astros last time out. Through his first three starts this season Eovaldi had given up just three earned runs in 18 2/3 innings. Charlie Morton will counter for Atlanta. He can certainly be had right now as he has been tagged for 10 earned runs over his last two starts spanning just 11 2/3 innings. The bullpens are closer to a wash than you might think. The Braves 'pen entered this series sporting an ERA well north of five and a 1.50 WHIP at home this season. Take Texas (8*). | |||||||
04-20-24 | A's v. Guardians -1.5 | 3-6 | Win | 125 | 23 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland -1.5 runs over Oakland at 6:10 pm et on Saturday. We'll fade Alex Wood and the A's on Saturday as they challenge Logan Allen and the Guardians in Game 2 of their series in Cleveland. Wood's best days are obviously behind him. He's made four starts this season, logging a 5.54 FIP and 2.10 WHIP. Logan Allen hasn't exactly been at his best for the Guardians but the potential is there and I look for him to bounce back from consecutive rough outings here at home. Note that he has posted a 1.36 WHIP through 21 1/3 innings of work this season. The A's are off to a fine start this season - certainly better than most expected - but I'm going to be looking to fade them in the coming weeks. Take Cleveland -1.5 runs (8*). | |||||||
04-20-24 | Mets v. Dodgers -1.5 | 6-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over New York at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. I like the Dodgers to rebound from last night's loss to the Mets and two losses in a row overall. Jose Butto has been impressive for the Mets so far this season but I do think he's in for some considerable regression moving forward. The hits simply haven't been falling in against him as he has held the opposition to 3.8 hits per nine innings. Keep in mind, for his limited big league career, Butto has allowed 7.3 hits per nine frames. Dodgers starter Gavin Stone has also got off to a solid start this season with a 2.18 FIP and 1.57 WHIP despite allowing 11.0 hits per nine innings. The Mets bullpen didn't have to do a lot of heavy lifting in last night's game but I think we'll see a different story on Saturday as the Dodgers offense figures to erupt off a couple of subpar performances. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (8*). | |||||||
04-19-24 | Rays +140 v. Yankees | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over New York at 7:05 pm et on Friday. I think some bettors may have Rays 'opener' Tyler Alexander confused with Angels journeyman Tyler Anderson as this price seems a little out of whack. Yankees starter Clarke Schmidt has had an up and down start to the campaign having posted a solid 3.54 FIP but a lofty 1.64 WHIP through three outings. Keep in mind, you would have to go back eight Schmidt starts to find the last time he made it through six innings. The Rays have long held their own against the Yankees, going 16-16 (+0.7 net games) in this series over the last three seasons. We'll back them at a considerable underdog price on Friday. Take Tampa Bay (8*). | |||||||
04-19-24 | White Sox +148 v. Phillies | 0-7 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Philadelphia at 6:40 pm et on Friday. The Rockies let the Phillies off the hook two nights ago and Philadelphia came away with a series sweep. I look for the White Sox to bring an end to the Phillies winning streak on Friday, however, as they send impressive rookie Garrett Crochet to the hill against Tigers castaway Spencer Turnbull. The White Sox are off to a tough start to the season, as was expected. Few will be expecting much out of them in this series against the red hot Phillies but that's precisely why I see them as offering value. Crochet is undoubtedly the better starting pitcher in this matchup and I still feel the Philadelphia bullpen can be had - as we saw against Colorado when it nearly blew a 7-1 lead two nights ago. Take Chicago (8*). | |||||||
04-18-24 | Diamondbacks +150 v. Giants | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
N.L. West Game of the Week. My selection is on Arizona over San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Thursday. Going back to the start of last season, the Giants are 17-20 in Logan Webb's 37 starts. Yes, he's a quality pitcher but San Francisco doesn't always provide the support needed to secure victories in spite of his terrific pitching. That wasn't the story in his most recent outing as the Giants produced 11 runs in a rout of the Rays last Saturday. I expect a much different story to unfold on Thursday in San Francisco. Diamondbacks starter Ryne Nelson is coming off a masterful six-inning outing against the Cardinals in which he allowed just one earned run. Note that the D'Backs have come away victorious in each of his three career starts against the Giants including a pair of wins in San Francisco. While the bullpen matchup is virtually a wash over the last week, D'Backs relievers have posted better overall numbers this season. Take Arizona (10*). | |||||||
04-18-24 | Sharks v. Flames -1.5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
Pacific Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Calgary -1.5 goals over San Jose at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. The Flames fell short in Vancouver two nights ago, snapping a two-game winning streak in the process. I look for them to bounce back on Thursday as they return home to wrap up what has been a disappointing season but in a smash spot against the lowly Sharks. San Jose looks like a team that has already packed it in for the season, coming off consecutive blowout losses by scores of 6-2 and 9-2 against the Wild and Oilers, respectively. Still a number of years away from even contending for a playoff spot, the Sharks are looking to the future. It's a different story for the Flames as they expect to compete for a playoff spot (and a division title) each and every year. There's plenty of roster moves to be made moving forward but I do think this team has continued to play hard down the stretch and finds itself in a prime bounce-back situation on Thursday. The Flames have plenty of young talent in the pipeline, led by goaltender Dustin Wolf, who figures to get the start between the pipes on Thursday. He backstopped the Flames to a 3-2 win in San Jose on April 9th, stopping 20 of 22 shots he faced. Take Calgary -1.5 goals (10*). | |||||||
04-18-24 | Rangers v. Tigers +100 | 9-7 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit over Texas at 1:10 pm et on Thursday. This series has been about as back-and-forth and tightly-contested as it gets and we'll count on the Tigers to bounce back and earn a 2-2 split on Thursday afternoon in Detroit. Kenta Maeda will get the start for Detroit. His overall numbers through three starts this season are not good but he is trending in the right direction. Last time out Maeda held the Twins to just one earned run over six innings. In four career starts against Texas he has posted a 3.05 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. Jack Leiter will get his first career big league start for the Rangers. While he could be effective in this game, it's unlikely we'll see him work deep into the contest. That leaves plenty of work for a Rangers bullpen that has struggled for the most part this season, logging a collective 4.96 ERA and 1.38 WHIP entering yesterday's game. In stark contrast, the Tigers 'pen entered yesterday's action with a 1.70 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. Take Detroit (8*). | |||||||
04-17-24 | Hawks +3 v. Bulls | 116-131 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Chicago at 9:30 pm et on Wednesday. The Bulls enter this game on the heels of three straight ATS victories and they're a long-term loser in that situation having gone 117-143 ATS including an 8-17 ATS mark over the last three seasons. Few will give the Hawks a chance in this game given they're riding a six-game losing streak, however, they're 45-38 ATS in their last 83 contests following six straight defeats. Also note that the underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings in this series, winning six of those games outright including each of the last four. Take Atlanta (8*). | |||||||
04-17-24 | Blues +185 v. Stars | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis over Dallas at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. With their opening round matchup out of their hands, I don't anticipate seeing the Stars go 'all out' to win in their home finale on Wednesday. The Blues are playing for nothing at this point but they certainly want to close out a non-playoff season on a high note and have been playing reasonably well over the last month or so, particularly on the road where they're 4-2 in their last six games going back to March 11th. We'll certainly take a flyer on the Blues at this price, noting they're 2-0-1 in this series this season. Take St. Louis (8*). | |||||||
04-17-24 | Rockies +195 v. Phillies | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado over Philadelphia at 6:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Rockies are certainly looking ahead to a return home at the conclusion of this series but I do look for them to avoid the sweep and pick up a rare road victory on Wednesday night in Philadelphia. Ryan Feltner was on the hill for the Rockies most recent win - last Friday in Toronto. He's as serviceable as it gets when it comes to the Colorado starting rotation. This play is more about fading Phillies starter Christopher Sanchez, who I don't feel belongs in this price range. I don't anticipate either starter working deep into this ball game but will take my chances fading the Phillies subpar bullpen which entered last night's action sporting a collective 6.31 ERA and 1.57 WHIP at home this season. Take Colorado (8*). | |||||||
04-17-24 | Cardinals v. A's +145 | 3-6 | Win | 145 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oakland over St. Louis at 3:35 pm et on Wednesday. Steven Matz was spotted a 4-0 lead in the first inning in his most recent start against Arizona. The Cardinals would go on to blow a 6-0 lead in that game before rallying for a 9-6 victory. All of that to say, Matz has been anything but dominant through his first three starts this season, striking out only eight while allowing 17 hits in 15 innings of work. It's been a different story for A's starter Paul Blackburn. He has yet to give up an earned run in 19 1/3 innings this season. Meanwhile, the A's bullpen has been terrific in the early going. We'll back the A's as they look to avoid the series sweep on Wednesday. Take Oakland (8*). | |||||||
04-17-24 | Nationals +226 v. Dodgers | 2-0 | Win | 226 | 6 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington over Los Angeles at 3:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Nationals were never going to have much of a shot at beating the Dodgers for a second straight game on Tuesday as they handed the ball to inning-eating batting practice pitcher Patrick Corbin. The Dodgers rolled in that contest. I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday, however, as Washington sends Jake Irvin to the hill against Dodgers rookie Landon Knack. Irvin has been serviceable in the early going this season, logging a 4.01 FIP and 1.06 WHIP. Meanwhile, the Nats bullpen has held up well, recording a collective 3.26 ERA with six saves converted and three blown in the early going this season. With a win on Wednesday, Washington would wrap up a confidence-building 5-4 road trip. The Dodgers on the other hand are just 2-4 over their last six games, still setting into the long 162-game season. Take Washington (8*). | |||||||
04-17-24 | Yankees -1.5 v. Blue Jays | Top | 6-4 | Win | 155 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
A.L. East Game of the Week. My selection is on New York -1.5 runs over Toronto at 3:05 pm et on Wednesday. Kevin Gausman has been awful in his last two starts. In fact, he's been pretty bad going all the way back to last August save for a few starts. When things have gone south for the veteran right-hander it's been in spectacular fashion. Note that in Gausman's last seven team losses, the opposition has plated a whopping 51 runs. After dropping the first two games of this series, I look for the Yankees to rebound on Wednesday afternoon. Marcus Stroman will get the nod for New York. He's coming off a rocky outing of his own but still owns a respectable 3.42 FIP and 1.06 WHIP on the campaign. He'll of course be up for this matchup against his former team. The Jays bullpen has held up well in this series so far but I think it's only a matter of time before it gets blown up. We'll bet that today is the day. Take New York -1.5 runs (10*). | |||||||
04-17-24 | Twins -1.5 v. Orioles | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota -1.5 runs over Baltimore at 1:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Orioles have elected to give Bruce Zimmermann the start on Wednesday as they look to wrap up a series sweep of the Twins. This is a starting pitching mismatch as Minnesota will hand the ball to its ace Pablo Lopez. We'll lay the extra run in this spot as the Twins are well-positioned to avoid the sweep in convincing fashion, noting their bullpen continues to pitch well having recorded a collective 2.37 ERA and 1.09 WHIP on the season. Take Minnesota -1.5 runs (8*). | |||||||
04-16-24 | Cubs v. Diamondbacks -1.5 | 11-12 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 33 m | Show | |
National League Game of the Month. My selection is on Arizona -1.5 runs over Chicago at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Cubs have now won three games in a row but I expect them to fall flat on Tuesday as they send Kyle Hendricks to the mound against Tommy Henry. This likely amounts to a bullpen game and in that case I'll favor the Diamondbacks based on the situation alone. Note that Chicago has been involved in four straight tightly-contested games in as many days, using many of its key bullpen arms. There's a good chance this one gets way from the Cubs, especially with Hendricks struggling (he's been one of the worst starters in baseball so far this season) in the early going. While I'm not overly high on Tommy Henry, I do think the attractive plus-money return laying the extra run with the D'Backs is too much to pass up, noting that seven of their eight wins this year have come by at least two runs including all six victories at home. Take Arizona -1.5 runs (10*). | |||||||
04-16-24 | Braves -1.5 v. Astros | 6-2 | Win | 140 | 14 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over Houston at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Braves were high on Reynaldo Lopez when they brought him over from the White Sox and perhaps for good reason. He's proven to be a useful cog in their injury-depleted starting rotation and I look for him to step up and give them another quality outing on Tuesday. It's a much different story for Astros starter Hunter Brown. He has all the tools to succeed but hasn't been able to put it together in his first season-plus at the big league level. He's been rocked over his last two outings and now faces the daunting task of trying to keep the Braves loaded lineup at bay. Behind Brown is an Astros bullpen that has been among the worst in baseball so far this season. It was only a matter of time before the Braves pulled away last night and I expect a similar story to unfold on Tuesday. Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (8*). | |||||||
04-16-24 | Lakers v. Pelicans | Top | 110-106 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 7 m | Show |
Play-in Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on New Orleans over Los Angeles at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. While the Pelicans were there in body they certainly weren't in spirit in Sunday's regular season ending 124-108 loss to these same Lakers. I expect a different story to unfold in Tuesday's 7 vs. 8 play-in tournament matchup. Neither team's back is against the wall, so to speak, in this contest as the one that loses will live to fight another day, against the winner of the 9 vs. 10 matchup between the Warriors and Kings. The Pelicans have enjoyed a terrific season and prior to Sunday's loss to the Lakers, had reeled off four straight wins - all coming on the road. I certainly anticipate them bouncing back here, noting they've gone 20-11 ATS in their last 31 games when seeking revenge for a double-digit home loss against an opponent, as is the case here, including a 9-3 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Lakers are 21-39 ATS in their last 60 contests following consecutive wins including a 9-15 ATS mark in that spot this season. Take New Orleans (10*). | |||||||
04-16-24 | Pirates +120 v. Mets | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh over New York at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. Off last night's big rally, we'll fade the Mets on Tuesday as they send veteran Jose Quintana to the mound against Pirates rookie Jared Jones. The starting pitching matchup doesn't matter all that much to me in this spot but I will note that Jones has shown the ability to work relatively deep into ball games, lasting at least 5 2/3 innings in all three of his starts this season. Quintana on the other hand has topped out at 5 2/3 innings in his first three outings this year. The Pirates bullpen figures to be in better shape here as the Mets come off consecutive tightly-contested affairs (and have nearly doubled the Pirates bullpen innings pitched over the last week). Take Pittsburgh (8*). | |||||||
04-16-24 | Hurricanes v. Blue Jackets +240 | 3-6 | Win | 240 | 11 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Columbus over Carolina at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. With the Rangers wrapping up top spot in the Eastern Conference (and the Metropolitan Division) last night, the Hurricanes will play a relatively meaningless game to wrap up their regular season on Tuesday in Columbus. The Blue Jackets limp in off an 0-4 road trip that began with a 3-0 loss to these same Canes in Raleigh. Columbus has definitely been a more competitive team at home lately, securing wins over the Golden Knights, Oilers, Penguins and Avalanche among others since the beginning of March. While I don't anticipate Carolina simply rolling over in its regular season finale, I do think the Jackets are well worth a shot at such a lofty price. While the Canes are 3-0 on their current road trip, they have lost close to four in every 10 games on the road this season. Take Columbus (8*). | |||||||
04-16-24 | Rockies +210 v. Phillies | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado over Philadelphia at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. I don't think the Phillies have any business being priced in this range with Ranger Suarez starting on Tuesday. The Rockies were right there with the Phils last night despite a no-show from their offense, ultimately dropping a 2-1 decision in extra innings. They'll hand the ball to Austin Gomber on Tuesday and while he's a prototypical back-of-the-rotation starter, the fact is he's been on the hill for two victories in his first three starts, once again illustrating that starting pitching matchups aren't the end-all and be-all when it comes to baseball handicapping. The price is right to take a flyer on the Rockies as they look to snap a three-game skid. Take Colorado (8*). | |||||||
04-15-24 | Cubs v. Diamondbacks -136 | 3-2 | Loss | -136 | 15 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona over Chicago at 9:40 pm et on Monday. The Diamondbacks come into this series feeling pretty good about themselves after posting four wins in their last five games. We'll back them here and fade the Cubs who are coming off a series win in Seattle including a 3-2 victory yesterday. Rookie Ben Brown will get his second start for the Cubs. He impressed in his first, allowing just three hits over 4 2/3 shutout innings against the Padres. Control has been an issue for Brown in the minors and I suspect the D'Backs will stay patient against him on Monday, ultimately leading to a relatively short outing. Merrill Kelly has been the picture of consistency for Arizona. He rarely gets blown up and when he does it usually happens on the road, not at home. Going back to last season, Kelly has lasted at least six innings in each of his last four starts. Take Arizona (8*). | |||||||
04-15-24 | Sabres +150 v. Lightning | 4-2 | Win | 150 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Buffalo over Tampa Bay at 7:05 pm et on Monday. While the Sabres have been eliminated from playoff contention, they ended up closer than you might think to clinching a spot in the postseason, sitting just five points back of the final Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference. Buffalo dropped the first game of its two-game Florida jaunt with a 3-2 defeat against the Panthers in Sunrise on Saturday but I look for it to bounce back here. Tampa Bay is already locked into the first Wild Card spot in the East and enters this contest off consecutive losses. It will wrap up its regular season with a home game against the Maple Leafs on Wednesday. Buffalo is 2-1 in this series this season and has won its last two stops in Tampa. It's hard not to like the return being offered with the upstart Sabres here. Take Buffalo (8*). | |||||||
04-15-24 | Giants -1.5 v. Marlins | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
National League Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco -1.5 runs over Miami at 6:40 pm et on Monday. Marlins starter A.J. Puk has proven he's not ready for a rotation spot, issuing 14 walks while giving up 12 hits in barely 10 innings of work this season. The Giants should be in a foul mood after failing to secure a series win in St. Petersburg yesterday. Kyle Harrison looks like he has the stuff to succeed at the big league level and I'm confident he'll put San Francisco in good position to win by margin on Monday in Miami. Take San Francisco -1.5 runs (10*). | |||||||
04-15-24 | Rangers v. Tigers +110 | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit over Texas at 6:40 pm et on Monday. I think the Rangers chasers will be out in full effect for this game as a short favorite after they dropped the final two contests of their weekend series in Houston. Instead we'll back the Tigers as they look to keep their terrific start going and own a starting pitching edge with Reese Olson going up against call-up Michael Lorenzen. Lorenzen is only making this start because of an injury to Cody Bradford. You may remember Lorenzen from his no-hitter last season but he faded after that and doesn't have the skills to succeed as a starter at the big league level. Olson showed positive flashes last season even if his overall numbers didn't impress. He was solid in his 2024 debut before getting roughed up by the Pirates in his most recent start. Both of his previous outings came on the road. I look for him to benefit from making his third start here at hitter-friendly Comerica Park. Take Detroit (8*). | |||||||
04-15-24 | Rockies v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and Philadelphia at 6:40 pm et on Monday. The Phillies saw their 10-game 'under' streak grind to a halt against the Pirates yesterday. I expect to see a bit of a correction moving forward, continuing with Monday's date with the Rockies. Colorado starter Cal Quantrill couldn't make a go of it in Cleveland and won't find life any easier with one of the worst teams in baseball. Quantrill figures to get hit hard by a Phillies team that is looking to bounce back from Sunday's loss. Aaron Nola is often priced as an elite pitcher for the Phillies but I don't necessarily think he falls into that category. Nola owns a 6.75 FIP and 1.50 WHIP through three starts spanning 16 innings this season and while those numbers are sure to come down, how much remains to be seen. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
04-15-24 | Guardians v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | 6-0 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Boston at 11:10 am et on Monday. Few are probably expecting much in the way of offensive fireworks in this early morning start on Marathon Day in Boston. I'll go the other way and call for a relatively high-scoring affair as the two teams are well-positioned to score early and often. Xzavion Curry gets his first start of the season for the Guardians after getting an audition for a starting job late last year. In just over 100 big league innings, Curry owns a 4.64 FIP and 1.41 WHIP. We know what we're going to get from the right-hander, who I should mention is unlikely to work deep into this ball game. It's a similar story with Kutter Crawford of the Red Sox. He has punched above his weight class in his first three starts this season but I expect regression moving forward. Like Curry, he's not a candidate to work deep into ball games. The Guardians have the type of lineup that puts a ton of pressure on opposing pitchers and can certainly move the line. I think these two teams go back-and-forth all day long. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
04-14-24 | Nationals v. A's OVER 8.5 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Oakland at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. We haven't seen much offense so far in this series and I suppose that's to be expected with these two lineups. I do think we'll see a different story unfold on Sunday, however, as the Nationals send Trevor Williams to the hill against Alex Wood of the A's. Both starters are coming off fine outings last time out. I question whether either can string together a second straight positive outing though. Williams recorded a 5.98 FIP and 1.60 WHIP for the Nats last year. Pitchers of his age and quality don't tend to turn things around at this stage of their career. Wood is a journeyman left-hander that has posted a 4.55 FIP and 1.95 WHIP through three starts this season. The Nats can get to him here. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
04-14-24 | Bucks v. Magic OVER 214.5 | Top | 88-113 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Orlando at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. The Magic have been trending in the wrong direction defensively, allowing three straight and four of their last five opponents to connect on at least 42 field goals. They've also been playing faster down the stretch, hoisting up 90 or more field goal attempts in three of their last five contests. The Bucks can seemingly bait any opponent into an up-tempo affair, noting that they've allowed 89 or more field goal attempts in 10 of their last 12 games. Even without Giannis in the lineup, they've been clicking offensively, making good on 41 or more field goals in six of their last eight contests. The 'over' is 32-21 in the Bucks last 53 games following a road loss including a 10-8 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 49-39 in Orlando's last 88 contests when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent, as is the case here, including a 13-7 mark this season. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
04-13-24 | Cubs -1.5 v. Mariners | 4-1 | Win | 125 | 15 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago -1.5 runs over Seattle at 9:40 pm et on Saturday. I think there's a certain feeling of confidence the Cubs have when Japanese import Shota Imanaga takes the hill, even if he is only two outings into his big league career. The Cubs have won his two previous starts by scores of 5-0 and 8-1 and I like their chances of posting another lopsided victory on Saturday in Seattle. The Mariners did take the opener of this series last night as the Cubs bats were silent against Bryce Miller and the Seattle bullpen. This is a fine bounce-back spot as they draw Mariners sophomore starter Emerson Hancock. He has yet to really fine-tune his stuff, as evidenced by a 7.52 FIP and 1.96 WHIP through two outings this season. He's now faced 93 batters at the major league level going back to last season and they've recorded a lofty .325 batting average against him. Take Chicago -1.5 runs (8*). | |||||||
04-13-24 | Giants v. Rays -105 | 11-2 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over San Francisco at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. The Rays are rolling right now, winners of three games in a row. I look for them to keep it going as they send promising right-hander Ryan Pepiot to the mound against veteran Logan Webb of the Giants. Pepiot got roughed up by the Rangers in his Rays debut but bounced back nicely to toss six shutout innings of three-hit, no-walk ball while striking out 11 at hitter-friendly Coors Field last time out. Coming over from the Dodgers, the Rays do feel like they have a good one in Pepiot and I tend to agree. He showed plenty of promise before injuries took their toll last season. Logan Webb has battled through some control issues in the early going this season but has still posted a FIP around three. He's always good for eating innings and is consistently effective but I'm not convinced the Giants can give him enough run support nor do I have much faith in San Francisco's sagging bullpen. Take Tampa Bay (8*). | |||||||
04-13-24 | Rockies v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and Toronto at 3:05 pm et on Saturday. The Rockies bats exploded in the series opener between these two teams last night. I expect the Blue Jays to return the favor against Colorado starter Dakota Hudson on Saturday but question whether Toronto's pitching staff can stem the tide with Yariel Rodriguez getting the call to make his big league debut. Rodriguez is a bit of a Wild Card having mostly excelled as a reliever in Japan. The Blue Jays are certainly believers in him after handing him a $32 million contract but it remains to be seen how he'll perform at the big league level. For now, I'm not anticipating him to work deep into this ball game, nor do I expect him to completely shut down the Rockies bats. Toronto's bullpen hasn't been good and there's no help coming at the moment. Given how I expect the Jays bats to perform in this game I don't think we'll need much from the Rockies to get this one 'over' the reasonable total. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
04-13-24 | Seattle Kraken v. Stars -1.5 | 1-3 | Win | 110 | 7 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas -1.5 goals over Seattle at 3:05 pm et on Saturday. The Stars current homestand hasn't gone as they hoped as they eked out a 3-2 win over Buffalo before a blowout loss at the hands of the Jets. I look for them to bounce back on Saturday as they host the Kraken who are simply playing out the string at the end of the disappointing season that won't result in a second straight playoff appearance. Dallas is in a fine spot here as it has gone a long-term 127-59 (+71.6 net games) when coming off a loss by two goals or more against a division opponent, as is the case here, including an 11-2 (+8.7 net games) mark in that situation over the last three seasons and a 3-0 (+3 net games) record this season. Meanwhile, the Kraken, fresh off an ugly home loss against the Sharks, are just 16-26 (-11.3 net games) following a loss this season. The Stars have owned this series for the most part and I expect them to post a lopsided victory on Saturday. Take Dallas -1.5 goals (8*). | |||||||
04-12-24 | Pelicans v. Warriors UNDER 219.5 | 114-109 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Friday. The Pelicans are coming off an exceptionally high scoring affair in Sacramento last night as both teams quite simply shot the lights out. The pace wasn't necessarily there for a contest that approached 260 total points. I expect a lower-scoring contest on Friday as the Pelicans wrap up their road trip in San Francisco. Golden State is trending slower having gotten off just 80 and 77 field goal attempts in its last two games with the latter performance coming in last night's 100-92 win in Portland. While the Warriors have been red hot shooting the basketball I do think the Pelicans can tame them here, noting that New Orleans has had a penchant for bouncing back from subpar defensive efforts (it allowed Sacramento to connect on 46 field goals last night). The Pelicans have still held 20 of their last 25 opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, New Orleans has gotten off 87 or fewer field goal attempts in five straight games. This doesn't figure to be the spot where it suddenly starts playing fast as the tail-end of a long road trip near the end of the regular season. The Warriors have incredibly limited 10 of their last 11 opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
04-12-24 | Cubs +105 v. Mariners | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 30 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Chicago over Seattle at 9:40 pm et on Friday. I'm fairly high on Cubs starter Jordan Wicks in the early going this season. We managed to cash the 'under' in his most recent start against the Dodgers. He didn't necessarily have his best stuff on that afternoon but still hung in there and ultimately helped our cause. I like the matchup here against a Mariners offense that just hasn't been there with any consistency in the early stages of the season. Bryce Miller has a bright future for Seattle, or at least that's the general consensus. I do think he's a considerable step behind the likes of George Kirby and Logan Gilbert in the M's starting rotation, however. In fact, I'm not sure Miller will every reach those heights. He's alternated good and bad starts so far this year and I think he's in for a rough one on Friday. Take Chicago (10*). | |||||||
04-12-24 | Cardinals v. Diamondbacks -116 | 9-6 | Loss | -116 | 14 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona over St. Louis at 9:40 pm et on Friday. Brandon Pfaadt enjoyed a nice turnaround for the Diamondbacks last season and while his ERA through two starts this year leaves a lot to be desired that doesn't tell the whole story. Pfaadt actually checks in sporting a 2.85 FIP giving him something to build on as he faces the Cardinals on Friday. We'll fade Cards starter Steven Matz as he comes off a solid five-inning outing against the Marlins. His 1.74 ERA and 1.16 WHIP won't hold. I look for the D'Backs to get to him on Friday. Take Arizona (8*). | |||||||
04-12-24 | Predators -1.5 v. Blackhawks | Top | 5-1 | Win | 108 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
Central Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Nashville -1.5 goals over Chicago at 8:35 pm et on Friday. I expect the Predators to be all business as they carry out this one-game trip to Chicago off a disappointing home loss against the Jets three nights ago. Note that Nashville is 12-5 (+7.9 net games) following a home loss this season while Chicago checks in a woeful 17-60 (-32.6 net games) in its last 77 contests against Central Division foes. After a brief surge, the wheels have come off for the Blackhawks over the last couple of games, falling by 4-0 and 5-2 scores against the Wild and Blues. They were down 4-0 before the ice was even dry two nights ago in St. Louis. Since the start of 2022 the Preds are 7-1 in this series with all but two of those victories coming by at least two goals. Take Nashville -1.5 goals (10*). | |||||||
04-12-24 | Rangers v. Astros OVER 9.5 | Top | 12-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
A.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Texas and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Friday. We'll pick on the two starters in this divisional matchup as neither arm has the track record to shine in this particular spot. Dane Dunning can succeed at times for the Rangers but it's more a matter of holding the opposing bats at bay just enough for his team's offense to take care of the rest. Dunning isn't shutting many opponents down. It's a similar story for J.P. France. He has actually recorded a terrific 2.43 FIP through two outings this season but regression figures to be on his way, noting he has posted a lofty 1.50 WHIP. Off a 1-0 loss to the A's yesterday the Rangers bats figure to wake up and it's worth mentioning that they just faced France last week, plating three earned runs over 5 2/3 innings. The damage could have been even worse as France yielded eight hits and two walks while striking out only four. Dunning fared slightly better against the Astros and has solid career numbers against them. Note the he's faced them just once in Houston and lasted only four innings after giving up four earned runs on seven hits. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
04-11-24 | Pelicans +1.5 v. Kings | 135-123 | Win | 100 | 15 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Sacramento at 10 pm et on Thursday. The Pelicans are 2-0 on their current road trip, successfully bouncing back from a four-game losing streak. They're as locked in defensively as it gets having held three of their last four opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals and 12 of their last 14 foes to 43 or fewer. The Kings have been playing faster lately but it hasn't translated into offensive success. They've gotten off 99, 94 and 96 field goal attempts over their last three contests but were limited to 40 or fewer made field goals in all three. They're likely to be left with little margin for error in this particular matchup with the Pelicans having held an incredible 14 straight opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. Keep in mind Sacramento has connected on 42 or fewer field goals in 10 of its last 11 contests. The Pelicans are 28-24 ATS in their last 52 games as a road underdog of six points or less including a 10-4 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the Kings are 33-47 ATS in their last 80 contests as a home favorite including a 13-21 ATS record this season. Take New Orleans (8*). | |||||||
04-11-24 | Orioles v. Red Sox +112 | Top | 9-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
A.L. East Game of the Month. My selection is on Boston over Baltimore at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. The Orioles have taken the first two games in this series including last night's contest in comeback fashion. We have a terrific starting pitching matchup on tap for Thursday's series finale but I'll give the Red Sox the edge with Garrett Whitlock taking the ball. Whitlock showed promise before being moved to the bullpen last year. So far this season he has logged a 2.25 FIP and 1.18 WHIP and that comes on the heels of an outstanding Spring. Grayson Rodriguez has the potential to be an ace for the Orioles but we saw him go through a stretch where he couldn't keep the ball in the park last May and we're seeing signs of that again in the early going this season (three home runs allowed in two starts). Fenway Park isn't a great place to figure out such issues. Take Boston (10*). | |||||||
04-11-24 | Orioles v. Red Sox UNDER 9 | 9-4 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Baltimore and Boston at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. The bats came to life at Fenway Park last night with the Orioles rallying for a 7-5 victory. I look for a lower-scoring affair as the series wraps up on Thursday evening. This game features two promising starting pitchers in Grayson Rodriguez and Garrett Whitlock. There's not a lot bad you can say about either one of them in the early going this season other than Rodriguez having had a penchant for allowing home runs. He does minimize the damage by not putting a lot of runners on base. Whitlock, meanwhile, has recorded a 2.25 FIP and 1.18 WHIP in his first two outings this season. The Boston bullpen imploded last night but had been solid previously. The O's 'pen is as advertised. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
04-11-24 | Capitals v. Sabres OVER 6 | Top | 2-4 | Push | 0 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Buffalo at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams have been trending to the 'under' lately but I expect a different story to unfold as they match up on Thursday in Buffalo. The Capitals currently hold down the final Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference playoff hunt but their hold is tenuous at best. They need to throw everything they have at the Sabres on Thursday. Buffalo comes off consecutive road losses in Detroit and Dallas in which it scored a grand total of three goals. A return home should help the Sabres cause as should facing the Caps noting that Washington is giving up an average of 3.3 goals per game on the road this season. Note that the 'over' is 14-10 in Washington's last 24 games following three straight 'under' results, as is the case here, including a 5-4 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, Buffalo has seen the 'over' go 26-16 in its last 42 contests when coming off consecutive 'under' results, which is also the situation here, including a 12-9 record in that spot this season. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
04-10-24 | Wolves v. Nuggets UNDER 213.5 | Top | 107-116 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
Northwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Denver at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. As is the case with many teams on Wednesday, both the Timberwolves and Nuggets are in a back-to-back spot here. I think this sets up as a relatively low-scoring affair between these Northwest Division rivals. Note that the Timberwolves have been the picture of consistency from a defensive standpoint this season. They're not getting run out of the gym by many opponents having held an incredible 17 straight opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. Over that stretch, only two opponents made good on more than 42. It's a similar story for the Nuggets but with even more dominance. They've limited seven of their last eight foes to fewer than 40 made field goals. You would have to go back 15 games to find the last time they allowed an opponent to connect on more than 42. The 'under' is 13-10 in Minnesota's last 23 games after scoring 130 points or more in their previous contest, as is the case here, including a 1-0 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 29-21 in the Nuggets last 15 contests as a home favorite of six points or less including a 9-4 record in that spot this season. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-10-24 | A's v. Rangers -1.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 112 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
A.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on Texas -1.5 runs over Oakland at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. The A's have inexplicably reeled off three straight wins but I look for that streak to end on Wednesday. Ross Stripling will get the start for Oakland. He caught lightning in a bottle in his most recent outing, getting involved in a pitching duel with Nick Pivetta of the Red Sox in an eventual 1-0 loss. Those type of impressive outings are likely to be few and far between for the journeyman starter this season, however. After his line drive percentage rocketed last season it has held through two starts this year as well. I look for the Rangers bats to feast. Cody Bradford doesn't get much attention near the back of the Rangers starting rotation but he has the potential to be a quality arm for the defending champs again this year. Bradford won't overwhelm hitters with his pitch velocity but he makes the most of his pitch arsenal and has recorded a 2.91 FIP and 0.47 WHIP through two outings this season. The A's have been winning but have a small margin for error averaging only 3.0 runs per game on the season. Take Texas -1.5 runs (10*). | |||||||
04-10-24 | Nationals v. Giants -1.5 | 1-7 | Win | 107 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco -1.5 runs over Washington at 3:45 pm et on Wednesday. The Giants are reeling right now having dropped the first two games of this series but I look for them to bounce back on Wednesday. Patrick Corbin will get the start for Washington. The beauty of fading Corbin is that as poorly as he's likely to pitch, the Nationals aren't going to lift him from the game early. He's quite simply an innings eater at this stage of his career with a FIP approaching six and a WHIP nearing two already this season. Jordan Hicks continues to get run out as a starter for the Giants and so far, so good. Hicks had a terrific spring and has recorded a sub-2.00 FIP and 0.75 WHIP in 12 regular season innings. We'll lay the extra run in this spot. Take San Francisco -1.5 runs (8*). | |||||||
04-10-24 | Dodgers v. Twins UNDER 9 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Minnesota at 1:10 pm et on Wednesday. Bobby Miller and Chris Paddack are two starting pitchers that I'm willing to support in the early going this season. Miller is coming off a shaky outing against the Cubs at Wrigley Field but still sports a 2.45 FIP and 1.17 WHIP through his first two starts this season. He's got the potential to eventually be a top of the rotation arm for the Dodgers. Meanwhile, Chris Paddack continues to work his way back from 2022 Tommy John surgery. The Twins are believers in him and I am as well, noting that the right-hander has showed flashes for Minnesota after shining at the minor league level in brief action in each of the last two seasons. Paddack won't be asked to do too much in this matinee affair but can fend the Dodgers off long enough to help this one stay 'under' the total. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
04-09-24 | Clippers v. Suns UNDER 226.5 | Top | 105-92 | Win | 100 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. The 'under' has cashed in each of the Suns last three games and I look for a similar story to unfold on Tuesday. Phoenix has held six straight opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts and three in a row to 40 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, you would have to go back eight games to find the last time the Suns connected on more than 44 field goals. Meanwhile, the Clippers have been limited to 43 or fewer made field goals in six of their last seven games. They've held four straight and six of their last seven foes to 43 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 60-45 in the Clippers last 105 games with the total set in the 220's including a 19-12 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 61-57 in the Suns last 118 contests as a home favorite including an 18-16 record this season. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-09-24 | Wild v. Avalanche UNDER 6.5 | 2-5 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Colorado at 9:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Avalanche will look to settle things down following consecutive high-scoring losses against the Oilers and Stars as they host the Wild on Tuesday. This figures to be a favorable spot for the Avs as the Wild have produced a grand total of just five goals in the last three meetings in this series. Note that Minnesota is coming off a shutout win in Chicago on Sunday. The 'under' is 33-27 in the Wild's last 60 contests following a road win including a 10-6 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 5-1 in Colorado's last six contests after giving up five goals or more in consecutive games, as is the case here, including a 2-0 record this season. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
04-09-24 | Astros v. Royals +114 | 3-4 | Win | 114 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas City over Houston at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Astros rallied to win the final two games of their four-game series in Texas but now find themselves at a disadvantage travelling to face a rested and rolling Royals club on Tuesday in Kansas City. I like the way the starting pitching matchup sets up for Kansas City in the series opener as it sends Cole Ragans to the hill against Cristian Javier. These two pitchers are on different career trajectories right now with Javier heading in the wrong direction and Ragans quickly ascending to elite status. Javier did pitch well in his most recent outing but that only serves to artificially inflate his price here. Ragans recorded a 2.49 FIP in 70+ innings after joining the Royals last season and has picked up right where he left off in 2024, posting a 2.91 FIP and 0.89 WHIP in two starts. Take Kansas City (8*). | |||||||
04-09-24 | Marlins +169 v. Yankees | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami over New York at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Marlins were shut out on Monday failing to build off Sunday's first victory of the season. I do think that lopsided result gives Yankees bettors a false sense of security with Carlos Rodon taking the ball for the third time this season on Tuesday. His 2.79 ERA so far this season doesn't tell the whole story as he has recorded a lofty 5.98 FIP in 9 2/3 innings of work. Likewise, Marlins starter A.J. Puk had a fine Spring but has been lit up in his first two regular season outings. I look for him to bounce back here and we'll note that he's not the one being priced as a big favorite. For his big league career, Puk has posted a solid 3.67 FIP. I think better days are ahead for the left-hander. Take Miami (8*). | |||||||
04-09-24 | Orioles -136 v. Red Sox | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baltimore over Boston at 2:10 pm et on Tuesday. We're being offered a decent price to back the Orioles on Tuesday as they look to cool off the red hot Red Sox. Corbin Burnes has been terrific in two starts with his new team, logging a 1.95 FIP and 0.86 WHIP. Red Sox starter Brayan Bello certainly isn't as bad as he's shown in the early going this season but a FIP north of six can't be ignored, especially as he prepares to face a loaded Orioles lineup. I think there's trouble brewing for the Sox in their home opener on Tuesday. Take Baltimore (8*). |
Service | Profit |
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Ricky Tran | $756 |
ProSportsPicks | $632 |
Joseph D'Amico | $510 |
Joey Tron | $450 |
Tom Macrina | $399 |
Nick Parsons | $344 |
Sean Murphy | $306 |
Jack Jones | $303 |
William Burns | $233 |
Dan Kaiser | $220 |