Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
01-18-21 | Wolves +8 v. Hawks | 97-108 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Atlanta at 2:35 pm et on Monday. The Hawks have lost six of their last seven games overall and now return home off a three-game road trip that got limited to two due to a Covid-related postponement in Phoenix. The T'Wolves have just three wins in 11 games this season and now have to deal with the absence of numerous key cogs, including Karl-Anthony Towns due to a positive Covid diagnosis. I do look for them to step up in his absence on Monday, however, and we're being given a generous helping of points to work with. After blowing a double-digit fourth quarter lead and losing by 11 points against the Grizzlies last time out, look for Minnesota to bring its best effort on Monday afternoon. Take Minnesota (10*). | |||||||
01-17-21 | Pelicans v. Kings +2 | 128-123 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over New Orleans at 9:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the home side in this matchup of two struggling Western Conference teams. New Orleans enters this game having dropped five in a row. In spite of that, it finds itself in a bit of a letdown spot off consecutive games against two of the West's best teams in the Clippers and Lakers in Los Angeles. The Pelicans will also be looking ahead to back-to-back tough games in Utah up next. The Kings have lost their last two games and four of their last five overall. They've been home since January 6th and will be up for finishing this homestand on a high note before playing seven of their next eight contests on the road. I believe the case can be made that the wrong team is favored in this one. Take Sacramento (10*). | |||||||
01-17-21 | Browns v. Chiefs OVER 57 | 17-22 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Kansas City at 3:05 pm et on Sunday. While last night's anticipated shootout in Buffalo fizzled, I don't expect this game to suffer the same fate on Sunday afternoon. The Browns offense has shown the ability to hit big plays and score points in bunches, clearly evolving over the course of the season and absolutely playing their best football entering this game. I don't expect Baker Mayfield and company to back down from a shootout here. The matchup actually sets up well with Cleveland's strength running the football and Kansas City struggling to contain opposing running backs all season, allowing north of 4.5 yards per rush. Meanwhile, the Chiefs offense has mismatches all over the field with WR Tyreek Hill and TE Travis Kelce in line for monster afternoons on Sunday. Cleveland's secondary has been ravaged by Covid protocols in recent weeks but should be back to virtually full strength here. I just question whether they snap back into action and contain two of the league's best playmakers in Hill and Kelce. QB Pat Mahomes will undoubtedly get his against a beatable Browns front. This total is sky high for a reason. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
01-16-21 | Ravens v. Bills OVER 50 | Top | 3-17 | Loss | -102 | 55 h 22 m | Show |
NFL Divisional Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Baltimore and Buffalo at 8:15 pm et on Saturday. I believe this has the potential to be the most entertaining - and highest-scoring - game of the Divisional Round. Baltimore got 'over the hump' so to speak with a come-from-behind win in Tennessee last Sunday. This Ravens offense has seemingly been getting better with each passing week - no longer the run-first (and run-only) offense that we saw a year ago. QB Lamar Jackson did it with his arm and his legs in last week's contest and should pick up right where he left off against what I consider to be an overrated Bills defense. Buffalo didn't get after Colts statue-esque QB Philip Rivers last Saturday and will be hard-pressed to do so against Jackson here. Of course, the Bills offense can score with the best of them and while this is a tough matchup against a stout Ravens defense, I believe QB Josh Allen and his terrific receiving corps will be up to the challenge. Last week it was the Stefon Diggs show but here against the Ravens I look for John Brown and Cole Beasley to step up as well. I don't expect to see Buffalo do too much running in this game, which certainly works in our favor, lending itself to shorter, but still productive, drives. I don't expect either side to back down in what I project as a back-and-forth shootout. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
01-16-21 | Islanders v. Rangers OVER 5.5 | 0-5 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between the Islanders and Rangers at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. We saw just four total goals in the season-opener between these rivals on Thursday night, with a big goose egg in the third period. The Rangers will need to regroup after showing little spark in that one, outshot by a 12-3 margin in the third period. I do think we'll see some improvement from the Blueshirts offensively - there's really no other option after getting shutout after all. Keep in mind, they did have one goal called back and numerous other quality scoring chances during a strong second period in that contest. It's not as if the Islanders are a rock between the pipes with veteran Semyon Varlamov. The Isles certainly appeared to be in midseason form offensively on Thursday, with their best players living up to expectations. Look for them to find continued success here, helping this one 'over' the relatively low total (by today's NHL standards). Take the over (10*). | |||||||
01-16-21 | Rams v. Packers -6.5 | Top | 18-32 | Win | 100 | 52 h 47 m | Show |
NFL Divisional Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Green Bay minus the points over Los Angeles at 4:35 pm et on Saturday. Full disclosure - the Packers were my pick to win the Super Bowl prior to the NFL Playoffs getting underway last weekend. Here, I won't hesitate to back them laying a very reasonable number against the Rams. I'll give plenty of credit to the Rams for outlasting the Seahawks last Saturday. Los Angeles took advantage of a disjointed Seattle offense that took a turn for the worse past the midway point of the season and never really turned it back around - ultimately its downfall in my opinion. QB Jared Goff certainly didn't look healthy in last Saturday's win, with very little zip on any of his passes. He's probably the Rams best option again this week, however, after backup John Wolford suffered a scary head/neck injury last Saturday. Los Angeles will once again rely on its defense to win this football game - I'm just not convinced it can shut down the Packers vaunted offense the way it did the Seahawks. Packers QB Aaron Rodgers looks like he's having as much fun as he has at any point of his long illustrious career. This is a better offense than most give it credit for in my opinion. Defensively, the Packers do have some holes up front but I'm not sure the Rams have the offense to take advantage. Look for Green Bay's rock solid secondary to be the real difference maker in this contest. They'll give up some yardage over the middle to slot man Cooper Kupp, but outside of that, I look for them to lock down this inconsistent Rams 'O'. Take Green Bay (10*). | |||||||
01-15-21 | Mavs +6.5 v. Bucks | Top | 109-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Milwaukee at 7:35 pm et on Friday. The Mavs have been in catch-up mode ever since starting the season with consecutive losses. They've certainly done a nice job lately, reeling off four straight victories entering Friday's showdown with the Bucks. I expect them to give Milwaukee all it can handle in this one. Unlike the Bucks last few opponents (their current three-game winning streak has come at the expense of the Cavs, Magic and Pistons), the Mavs aren't going to beat themselves. Dallas ranks eight in the NBA in fewest turnovers per offensive play. By contrast, the Bucks actually rank 17th in that category. Also note that the Mavs are top three in the league in opponents effective field goal percentage. It's not as if Dallas has faced a soft schedule either. The Mavs opponents have included the Suns, Lakers, Clippers, Heat, Rockets and Nuggets. Meanwhile, the Bucks have gone 1-3 SU in their four toughest matchups to date, against the Celtics, Heat (twice) and Jazz. Outside of that they really haven't been challenged. This should be a tightly-contested affair. Take Dallas (10*). | |||||||
01-14-21 | Warriors v. Nuggets -4.5 | 104-114 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver minus the points over Golden State at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. I'll lay the points with the Nuggets as they return home to host the Warriors on Thursday night. The Denver bandwagon effectively cleared in last Thursday's overtime loss to the Mavs but the Nuggets quietly rebounded with consecutive wins after that, before falling to the Nets in Brooklyn earlier this week. Here, I expect to see Denver bounce back in a big way against a Warriors squad that has somewhat surprisingly righted the ship of late, winning four of their last six games to pull back over the .500 mark. I didn't like the way they faded in the second half against the Pacers last time out and believe they could be in for a rude awakening here after playing each of their first seven January games at home. Take Denver (10*). | |||||||
01-13-21 | Mavs v. Hornets +4.5 | 104-93 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Charlotte plus the points over Dallas at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Hornets just keep rolling along, winners of four games in a row entering Wednesday's matchup with the Mavericks. They might be catching Dallas at the right time as the Mavs return to the floor following a postponed game due to Covid concerns on Monday in New Orleans. The Mavs had won three straight games heading into that postponement but could certainly be off their game here, especially with a clear look-ahead to a showdown in Milwaukee on Friday night. I simply feel Dallas is laying a couple of points too many in this spot. Take Charlotte (10*). | |||||||
01-12-21 | Spurs -1.5 v. Thunder | 112-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Antonio minus the points over Oklahoma City at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Thunder are coming off a 4-1 road trip that saw them sweep a pair of games in New York against the Knicks and Nets over the weekend. Now I expect them to suffer a letdown as they return home to host the Spurs on Tuesday night. San Antonio had its three-game winning streak snapped last time out in Minnesota. Demar Derozan's likely absence will give the rest of the Spurs an opportunity to step up and fill the void on Tuesday night and I'm calling for a strong bounce-back perfromance before they return home for consecutive games against the Rockets on Thursday and Saturday. Take San Antonio (10*). | |||||||
01-11-21 | Ohio State v. Alabama OVER 75 | 24-52 | Win | 100 | 23 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Ohio State and Alabama at 8 pm et on Monday. I'll keep it simple with this play. Alabama finished number one in the nation in points per play this season and it wasn't all that close. The Crimson Tide should score at will in this game - even against an elite Ohio State defense. The Tide simply have too much NFL level talent on offense to be slowed in this game. However, we're talking about a matchup with a single-digit pointspread, and I do believe Justin Fields and the Buckeyes offense can keep pace for much of this game. Ohio State checks in ninth in the country in points per play and should be able to make some headway against an Alabama defense that is always exceptional but certainly not invincible. We're dealing with a high total in this one but it's in the 70's for a reason. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
01-10-21 | Bears v. Saints OVER 47.5 | 9-21 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and New Orleans at 4:40 pm et on Sunday. While the Saints defense should certainly be respected here, I believe the potential is there for a shootout at the Superdome on Sunday afternoon. Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky certainly exceeded expectations once he reclaimed the starting QB job in Chicago, albeit against a relatively easy schedule down the stretch. Here, Trubisky will likely be leading the Bears offense in catch-up mode for much of the day and he has just enough weapons to inflict some damage against the Saints stout defense. New Orleans has the potential to go off with RB Alvin Kamara back on the field against an overrated and undermanned Bears defense. While QB Drew Brees has been relegated to more of a 'game manager' role on many occasions at this stage of his career, I expect him to have a big day on Sunday afternoon. The Chicago defense is very beatable and Brees is likely to have WR Michael Thomas back on the field for this one. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
01-09-21 | Bucs v. Washington Football Team UNDER 44.5 | 31-23 | Loss | -105 | 35 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and Washington at 8:15 pm et on Saturday. The Washington Football Team hasn't posted an 'over' result since its Thanksgiving Day game against the Cowboys and I don't see that streak ending, even against the high-scoring Bucs on Saturday night. Washington can certainly use the 'no one believes in us' mantra as a near-double-digit underdog entering this contest. There's reason for it to be somewhat confident as it boasts a fierce defensive front that should put Bucs legendary QB Tom Brady under duress all night long - or at least that's the hope. Brady's struggles when under pressure have been well-documented, particularly in recent years. Of course it generally takes two teams to topple a total and in this particular matchup, Washington is relatively hamstrung on offense. QB Alex Smith is dealing with a calf strain and while he's likely to start, it remains to be seen whether he can finish this game. Standout RB Antonio Gibson has been dealing with a turf toe injury while WR Terry McLaurin had to shake off a high ankle sprain to suit up last week. Despite playing the 'under' in this game, we actually want the Washington offense to find some success moving the football and eating some clock in this game, and I'm confident they can do that against a Bucs defense that will yields plenty of completions in the short passing game - an area of strength for this WFT offense. Having scored 23 points or less in 12 of 16 games this season, there's little reason to anticipate a sudden breakout on the scoreboard from Washington here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
01-09-21 | Hawks -4 v. Hornets | 105-113 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Charlotte at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. I'll lay the points with the Hawks as they look to get back at the Hornets after suffering a 102-94 loss in this same matchup on Wednesday night. Atlanta fell behind by 16 points after the first quarter in that game and never really recovered. It was certainly an off shooting night for the Hawks as they knocked down just 38% of their FG attempts and shot 7-of-40 from beyond the arc. Trae Young contributed just seven points. Needless to say, I expect a strong bounce-back effort from Atlanta here as it looks to snap its three-game skid. Heading on the road might be a good thing for this team right now as they might have gotten a little high on the horse after a red hot start to the campaign. Charlotte is still just 4-5 on the season and will be playing the second of back-to-back nights after delivering a second straight outright underdog win on the road in New Orleans last night. Take Atlanta (10*). | |||||||
01-09-21 | Rams v. Seahawks UNDER 42.5 | Top | 30-20 | Loss | -115 | 33 h 31 m | Show |
NFL Wild Card Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Seattle at 4:40 pm et on Saturday. We won with this same play the last time these two teams met in Week 16 - a game that totaled just 29 points. While I'm not going to count on another sub-30-point result here, I do expect this third meeting of the season to say 'under' the low posted total. Seahawks QB Russell Wilson threw just one touchdown compared to two interceptions in two regular season meetings between these two NFC West rivals. There's little reason to expect a sudden breakout here, with Wilson being asked to do far less down the stretch during the regular season, as the Seahawks defense rose to prominence. Meanwhile, the Rams offense has a big question mark under center - will it be Wolford or Goff under center? Regardless which quarterback gets the start, they're likely to struggle against a Seattle defense that absolutely rounded into form at the most critical point of the season. I do believe Los Angeles can have some success moving the football and orchestrating long, clock-churning drives in this game (the return of left tackle Andrew Whitworth is key) but I'm not confident in its ability to end many of those drives with 7's on the board. Much like the Rams, the Seahawks defense has the ability to take away big plays downfield, and the presence of Wolford (or Goff for that matter) also keeps a cap on that big-play potential. These two teams know each other inside and out and their recent matchups have been un-exciting for those that love wild, high-scoring shootouts. Expect another hard-fought, low-scoring affair on Saturday. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
01-09-21 | Colts v. Bills OVER 51 | 24-27 | Push | 0 | 29 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Indianapolis and Buffalo at 1:05 pm et on Saturday. I'm expecting plenty of offense as the Bills host a playoff game for the first time since 1996 on Saturday afternoon against the Colts. Indianapolis boasted an elite defense during the early stages of the season but the wheels came off a little bit down the stretch and now it draws a nightmarish playoff-opening matchup in Buffalo. The Bills got some good news on Thursday with underrated WR Cole Beasley returning to practice and superstar WR Stefon Diggs indicating that he's good to go for Sunday's game despite a nagging oblique injury. I fully expect Bills QB Josh Allen to let it fly against a Colts defense that has had a penchant for giving up big plays through the air. The question is whether the Colts can do enough on offense to help this one up and over the relatively high total. I believe the answer is yes. Indy RB Jonathan Taylor was positively dominant down the stretch, albeit benefiting from some positive game scripts. You can run on the Bills and I'm confident that Taylor can do enough to open things up for veteran QB Philip Rivers. Big plays will be tough to come by against this Bills secondary, but look for the Colts to grind out enough Taylor-fueled touchdown drives to help this one along. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
01-08-21 | Thunder v. Knicks -145 | Top | 101-89 | Loss | -145 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
NBA Moneyline Game of the Month. My selection is on New York (moneyline) over Oklahoma City at 7:35 pm et on Friday. I'll back the Knicks as they aim to extend their three-game winning streak on Friday night against the Thunder. In my opinion, New York is more likely to get tripped up in one of its next two games - at home against Denver on Sunday or at Charlotte on Monday. The Knicks have been as steady as they come lately, posting five wins in their last six games - seemingly toughening up late in each of those contests. Last time out they got just nine points on a 4-of-14 shooting night from super sophomore R.J. Barrett. Expect a big bounce-back performance from the Canadian here. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City is just 3-4 on the campaign but has won two of its last three contests. The Thunder almost gave away their most recent victory, narrowly holding on for a one-point win over the Pelicans after entering the fourth quarter with a double-digit lead. Here, I don't think they'll be so fortunate. Take New York moneyline (10*). | |||||||
01-07-21 | Mavs v. Nuggets -134 | 124-117 | Loss | -134 | 13 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver (moneyline) over Dallas at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the Nuggets as they try to string together their first three-game winning streak of the season on Thursday night. It's not often you'll find me betting against Luka Doncic but in this particular spot, I simply feel the Mavs are going to have a tough time matching the Nuggets depth. Keep in mind, Dallas is still without Kristaps Porzingis, whose return doesn't appear to be far off. Trey Burke will also miss Thursday's game due to an illness. Meanwhile, the Nuggets are expected to have Michael Porter Jr. back in the lineup after he dealt with Covid protocols. While it remains to be seen how much he can contribute in his first game back, his return is a boost for sure, noting he poured in 30 points against the Kings the last time he was on the floor back on December 30th. This is a key spot for the Nuggets as they look to get back to the .500 mark on the season before heading east for three tough games in four nights against the 76ers, Knicks and Nets. Rather than lay the points I'll back Denver on the moneyline at an increasingly reasonable price here. Take Denver moneyline (10*). | |||||||
01-07-21 | 76ers v. Nets UNDER 225 | 109-122 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Brooklyn at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. The 76ers were involved in a wild, high-scoring game against the defense-optional Wizards last night but I look for the scoring to settle down considerably as they head to Brooklyn to face the Durant-less Nets on Thursday night. Note that Philadelphia ranks tops in the league in defensive efficiency while Brooklyn isn't far behind sitting in eighth. It's also worth noting that the 76ers are second in the league in block percentage with the Nets once again ranking eighth. We won with the Nets in their last game as they routed the Jazz thanks in large part to a tremendous defensive start to that game. Without Kevin Durant sidelined, the Nets need to keep the emphasis on playing fundamentally-sound defensive basketball, even in the face of a tough challenge against the surging 76ers on Thursday. Meanwhile, Kyrie Irving will once again get his, but don't count on Brooklyn hanging another 130-spot on the board against what is sure to be a highly-motivated 76ers squad. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
01-06-21 | Rockets +2 v. Pacers | 107-114 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston plus the points over Indiana at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Rockets are coming off a poor showing against the Mavs on Monday - a disappointing result after they swept a back-to-back set with the Kings. I do expect Houston to bounce back on Wednesday, however, as it catches Indiana returning home following an overtime win in New Orleans two nights ago, having alternated wins and losses over its last four games. For the Rockets, this is a key road tilt before returning home for their next three games. I expect a positive response from both James Harden and John Wall after the duo combined to shoot 9-of-27 from the field on Monday night. While controversy has swirled around Harden as he looks to get out of Houston, his play hasn't showed it as he is averaging 33 points and 10.8 assists per game this season. Take Houston (10*). | |||||||
01-06-21 | Wizards +7 v. 76ers | 136-141 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington plus the points over Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Wizards could easily suffer a letdown here off a big upset win in Brooklyn on Sunday but having had two days off since that contest, I'm confident we'll see them use that victory as a building block. After all, the Wiz are off to a rough 2-5 start so they can ill afford to let down their guard, especially against a 76ers squad that has posted a 6-1 record. Keep in mind, this is a rematch from opening night, when the 76ers turned in a near-flawless performance yet still only won by six points. The Wizards were without sophomore Rui Hachimura in that game which is notable as he has been a steady contributor since returning, scoring 14.3 points per game and adding nearly four rebounds per contest. Also notable has been the steady improvement of Washington C Thomas Bryant, who has scored 28, 18 and 21 points over his last three games, hauling in 14 rebounds in Sunday's win over Brooklyn. The 76ers are obviously off to a tremendous start but they've also faced a fairly light schedule. Of their seven games, four have come at home and the list of teams they've faced is as follows; Washington, New York, Cleveland, Toronto, Orlando and Charlotte (twice). I look for the Wizards to give the Sixers a run in this one. Take Washington (10*). | |||||||
01-05-21 | Lakers v. Grizzlies +9 | Top | 94-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Los Angeles at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Lakers had little trouble brushing aside the Grizzlies two nights ago, cruising to a 14-point victory. Keep in mind, Memphis shot just 41% from the field and got to the free throw line only eight times in that contest. The 14-point margin of victory for the Lakers was probably a little flattering for the Grizzlies in actual fact. Here, I look for the Grizzlies to turn in a better showing, while the Lakers turn in less than a peak performance with an eye on a three-game in four night stretch beginning on Thursday. There will obviously be games where the Lakers conserve a little energy over the course of this unique 2020-21 season, and this might just be one of them. The Grizzlies have actually held their own since losing star sophomore Ja Morant to injury. He went down early in their eventual overtime win over the Nets on December 28th. Including that game, they've gone 2-2 since losing Morant. This is a key spot for the Grizzlies as they aim to give themselves at least a chance of posting a winning homestand, with two winnable games against the Cavs and the perceiveably Durant-less Nets up next. Take Memphis (10*). | |||||||
01-05-21 | Toledo v. Kent State -120 | 84-82 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kent State (moneyline) over Toledo at 2 pm et on Tuesday. I like the way this one sets up for Kent State as it looks to bounce back from a narrow four-point loss suffered against Akron on New Year's Day. The Golden Flashes have played only five games so far this season, posting a 3-2 mark. Their only other loss came against an elite opponent in Virginia - a game in which they easily covered the 20.5-point spread, losing by just seven points. Toledo is off to an 8-3 start and hasn't lost a game since December 9th at Michigan. However, the Rockets have faced just one winning opponent in five games since then. Note that Toledo ranks 315th in the nation in block percentage and 215th in steals per possession. I don't think we'll see the Rockets make life all that difficult on the Kent State offense here today. The Golden Flashes rank a respectable 77th in the country in effective field goal percentage entering this game. Take Kent State moneyline (10*). | |||||||
01-04-21 | Knicks v. Hawks -6 | 113-108 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over New York at 7:35 pm et on Monday. The Knicks got past the Pacers in an early season revenge spot on Saturday night thanks to shooting the lights out and dominating the glass. I don't expect them to do either of those things on Monday as they head to Atlanta to face the Hawks. Atlanta should be in a foul mood after an extremely poor second half showing against the Cavs on Saturday (we won with the Cavs in that game). The Hawks jumped out to an early lead but couldn't make it stand up. Perhaps the fact they were playing on the second of back-to-back nights after closing out a tough two-game split in Brooklyn played a role. While the Hawks bandwagon mostly cleared after that loss to Cleveland, I expect them to respond with a big effort on Monday night against the upstart Knicks. One thing we know is while Atlanta is off to a solid start, it certainly isn't good enough to overlook a team like New York. Take Atlanta (10*). | |||||||
01-03-21 | Clippers -136 v. Suns | 112-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles (moneyline) over Phoenix at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. The Clippers are coming off a tough loss to the Jazz in Utah on Friday night - always a tough trip for even the best teams in the NBA. That was an easy game to forget about for L.A. as it fell behind by double-digits early and never really recovered. With that being said, I don't think it will be difficult for the Clips to get motivated for this bounce-back spot against the red hot Suns on Sunday evening. Phoenix enters this game on the heels of four straight wins and sits a game ahead of Los Angeles in the Western Conference standings. While we cashed our easiest winner of the season to date fading the Clips one week ago today against Dallas, they bounced back nicely from that defeat, posting a 23-point win over the T'Wolves two nights later. While this game certainly doesn't look like a potential blowout, I do expect Los Angeles to prevail. Rather than lay the points we'll back the Clips on the moneyline as we're being offered a very reasonable price to do so. Take Los Angeles moneyline (10*). | |||||||
01-03-21 | Seahawks -6.5 v. 49ers | 26-23 | Loss | -112 | 23 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle minus the points over San Francisco at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. The 49ers delivered a stunning upset win over the Cardinals last Saturday leading some to believe they may offer some value in an underdog role against the Seahawks here this week. I don't believe that's the case, however, as we should see San Francisco effectively fold the tent against a motivated Seahawks squad that is absolutely rolling heading into Week 17. While Seattle has leaned heavily on its defense to win games in recent weeks, this is a prime breakout spot for its offense against a 49ers defense that has been injury-ravaged all season long and can't have much left in the tank at this point. Meanwhile, a number of the 49ers key cogs on offense will sit this one out, leaving QB C.J. Beathard in tough against a still-surging Seahawks defense. Look for Seattle to be able to take the air out of the football in the fourth quarter of this one as it imposes its will and ultimately posts a comfortable win. Take Seattle (10*). | |||||||
01-03-21 | Ravens -13.5 v. Bengals | Top | 38-3 | Win | 100 | 20 h 37 m | Show |
NFL Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Ravens in their blowout victory over the Giants last Sunday - our second time winning with them in the last three games - and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with them again as they hit the road to face the Bengals in Week 17 action on Sunday. As I noted in last week's analysis, Baltimore's bandwagon effectively cleared during a three-game Covid-induced slide in late November-early December. Since then all the Ravens have done is get healthy and go a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four contests. Now they draw another favorable matchup against the Bengals, who are in a clear letdown spot off last week's offensive eruption against a hapless Texans defense. Despite winning consecutive games in improbable fashion, the Bengals were actually shredded for nearly seven yards per rush by the Steelers and Texans over the last two weeks. The Ravens should have little trouble continuing that trend here. Meanwhile, the Baltimore defense has rounded back into the form we saw earlier in the season and is in line for another productive day against a Bengals offense that isn't nearly as good as it looked last week. The Ravens had no trouble disposing of the Bengals by a 27-3 score the last time they squared off. Expect another lopsided result here. Take Baltimore (10*). | |||||||
01-03-21 | Vikings v. Lions OVER 54 | 37-35 | Win | 100 | 19 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. This game sets up as a shootout between the NFC North division rival Vikings and Lions in friendly conditions at Ford Field on Sunday afternoon. Vikings QB Kirk Cousins won't have RB Dalvin Cook in the backfield to relieve the pressure on Sunday afternoon but he should find plenty of success nonetheless with the Lions having no semblance of a stout defense whatsoever. Detroit doesn't get after opposing quarterbacks, doesn't subdue ground attacks and certainly does not contain opposing wide receivers. While Cook's absence isn't ideal, the Vikes still have a terrific stable of running backs to lean on. Meanwhile, Cousins should absolutely feast on a deplorable Lions secondary with both Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson in line for big days. Detroit may actually get QB Matt Stafford back on the field on Sunday afternoon and regardless of all the injuries he's dealing with, I still expect him to go all out against a very beatable Vikings defense. Detroit's offense was a complete no-show last Saturday against Tampa Bay as it was completely thrown out of rhythm by Stafford's early exit. Here, I do expect to see Detroit find the end zone on multiple occasions and aim to end another disappointing campaign on a relative high note. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
01-02-21 | Cavs +7 v. Hawks | 96-91 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Atlanta at 7:35 pm et on Saturday. While we've been high on the Hawks in the early going this season, I see this as a fine spot to fade them as they return home following a two-game set in Brooklyn. We're going to see all kinds of odd scheduling quirks over the course of this unique 2020-21 season. Here, Atlanta returns home on no rest after playing the Nets twice in three nights in Brooklyn. The Hawks managed to split those two contests and now I'm not sure we're going to see a peak effort from them against the Cavs on Saturday night. Cleveland has been an Eastern Conference doormat in recent years but is off to a fine 3-2 start this season, getting far more consistent production from its starting five than we've been used to seeing. We actually won by fading the Cavs in their most recent game - a 20-point loss in Indiana on New Year's Eve. That was an excellent spot for the Pacers, however, and Cleveland could have made a game of it were it not for an off night from the free throw line (it shot 13-of-24). Take Cleveland (10*). | |||||||
01-02-21 | Creighton -4 v. Providence | 67-65 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Creighton minus the points over Providence at 12 noon et on Saturday. I'll lay the points with the 11th-ranked Blue Jays on Saturday as they travel to face Providence. Creighton's only two losses this season have come against Kansas and Marquette by a combined six points so the blemishes on its 7-2 overall record are minor to say the least. This game will feature a real contrast in styles with the Blue Jays preferring a more up-tempo game compared to the Friars slow-it-down mindset. Note that the Friars rank 224th in the country in possessions per game. By contrast, Creighton ranks 72nd in that category. I'm just not sure the Friars will have enough possessions to keep pace with Creighton here, noting that the Blue Jays rank 19th in effective field goal percentage while Providence sits 141st. Take Creighton (10*). | |||||||
01-02-21 | Kentucky v. NC State UNDER 49.5 | 23-21 | Win | 100 | 14 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Kentucky and N.C. State at 12 noon et on Saturday. Kentucky scored 41 points in its most recent game - a 23-point rout of South Carolina. The Wildcats scored 30+ points on three different occasions but all three of those games came against non-Bowl teams. Here, the Wildcats will be in tough against an N.C. State defense that ranks 51st in the nation in points allowed per play and 42nd in sack percentage. Of course, Kentucky's calling card is its defense - that's been the case for a number of years. This is a manageable matchup for the Wildcats defense, noting that they rank 49th in the nation in points allowed per play. Both teams will give up their share of rush yardage but that should only end itself to long, clock-churning drives on Saturday afternoon. Note that Kentucky QB Terry Wilson threw more than a single touchdown in a game just once this season. N.C. State QB Bailey Hockman threw more than two touchdowns on two occasions but those performances came against two weak defenses in Florida State and Syracuse. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
01-01-21 | Blazers -165 v. Warriors | 123-98 | Win | 100 | 24 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Portland (moneyline) over Golden State at 10:35 pm et on Friday. The Blazers did about as best as we could have expected in their two-game stint in Los Angeles, beating the Lakers before falling to the Clippers in blowout fashion. That latter result had more to do with being in the wrong place at the wrong time than anything else as the Clips were in a foul mood off an ugly blowout loss to the Mavs. Here, I look for the Blazers to bounce back against the Warriors, who are fresh off consecutive road wins. Steph Curry has performed as we have anticipated in the early going, leading the Warriors charge to a .500 record. I do expect to see some regression in terms of Steph's scoring here, however, as he comes in off back-to-back 30+ points performances. The Blazers have the edge in terms of depth and Damian Lillard will obviously be a key after he shot a miserable 3-of-14 from the field last time out. Expect a big bounce-back effort from Lillard here. Rather than lay the points we'll go the moneyline route here as we're being offered a very reasonable price to do so. Take Portland moneyline (10*). | |||||||
01-01-21 | Cincinnati v. Georgia -6.5 | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -114 | 27 h 1 m | Show |
CFB Bowl Game of the Year. My selection is on Georgia minus the points over Cincinnati at 12 noon et on Saturday. Cincinnati has gone undefeated this season and we've been along for the ride in a few of those victories but here I believe the Bearcats are going to be in tough trying to keep this game close against Georgia. If you're not going to come up with big, explosive plays on offense, you're not likely going to hang around against the Bulldogs. Georgia's defense is just too good to string together long, methodical touchdown drives against but unfortunately that's been the Bearcats M.O. this season. In their only two losses against Florida and Alabama, Georgia gave up a number of long touchdown runs and passes - Cincinnati just isn't likely to display that same sort of quick score ability. Meanwhile, we saw Georgia's offense really round into form down the stretch. While it will face a tough challenge here, it's not anything it hasn't faced in the SEC this season. The Bearcats are a talented team across the board, but boasts few players that have NFL potential. Georgia, on the other hand, is loaded with NFL-level talent and poised to end its 2020 campaign on a high note on New Year's Day in its own backyard (this game will be played in Atlanta). Take Georgia (10*). | |||||||
12-31-20 | Cavs v. Pacers -7.5 | 99-119 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Indiana minus the points over Cleveland at 3:05 pm et on Thursday. These two teams check in with identical 3-1 records this season but I don't think there's any question Indiana is the superior squad. Keep in mind, the Cavs three victories have come against the Hornets, Pistons and Joel Embiid-less 76ers. While Collin Sexton and Andre Drummond have been impressive for Cleveland, I expect the depth of the Pacers to wear it out on Thursday afternoon. Of course there's a chance we see a Pacers letdown here off consecutive tough battles against the Celtics but I think there's a better chance we see a focused effort from Indiana given it dropped its most recent game against Boston by a 116-111 score. Indiana continues to get production from up and down its lineup - most recently registering six players in double-figures. The Cavs have been living off of extra possessions, ranking tops in the league in steals per game. Indiana, however, is top nine in fewest turnovers and I look for it to do a fine job of taking care of the basketball here. Take Indiana (10*). | |||||||
12-31-20 | Ball State v. San Jose State -9 | 34-13 | Loss | -120 | 16 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Jose State minus the points over Ball State at 2 pm et on Thursday. San Jose State has proven to be an underrated team all season long and there's little reason to expect it to finally get tripped up on Thursday against MAC opponent Ball State. The Spartans exceeded expectations at every turn this season, culminating with a first ever MWC championship over perennial winner Boise State. I really liked the way QB Nick Starkel stepped up in that contest, proving he is more than just a game manager by throwing for 453 yards and three touchdowns. Keep in mind, earlier in the season he also threw for 467 yards and five touchdowns against New Mexico. I absolutely love the versatility of this Spartans squad as they're able to win a slugfest or a shootout. Ball State blindsided conference front-runner Buffalo in the MAC Championship Game, although that victory had a lot to do with the Bulls losing do-it-all RB Jaret Patterson to injury in that contest. Outside of Buffalo, I didn't find the MAC overly impressive this season. Ball State does a lot of things ok but is by no means an elite offensive or defensive squad. Look for Cardinals QB Drew Plitt to be under duress all afternoon long and for the Spartans to force a key turnover or two that ultimately puts this game away. Take San Jose State (10*). | |||||||
12-30-20 | Hawks v. Nets -6 | 141-145 | Loss | -108 | 22 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Brooklyn minus the points over Atlanta at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. We've already backed the Hawks in all three games this season, going 2-1 ATS in the process, with our lone miss coming as a free play in Monday's win but non-cover against the Pistons. Here, I'll go the other way and fade Atlanta as it opens a two-game set against the Nets. Brooklyn is coming off a home loss to the Grizzlies but that was without both Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving on the floor after they played big minutes against the Hornets the night previous. For a team like the Nets, who are certainly top-heavy and a little depth-shy, they're going to need to find reasons to motivated themselves over the course of this unique 2020-21 season. I do think the Hawks perfect 3-0 record will garner their attention and we'll see a focused effort as the Nets look to snap their two-game skid. I've sung the Hawks praises in the early going this season and have them pegged as a possible breakout team in the East, but they're not a top contender by any means. That should be evident in Tuesday's game against an elite Nets squad, albeit one that is still looking to find its footing. Take Brooklyn (10*). | |||||||
12-30-20 | Wisconsin v. Wake Forest UNDER 52 | 42-28 | Loss | -114 | 15 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Wisconsin and Wake Forest at 12 noon et on Wednesday. I'm not sure how excited either of these teams are about playing in the Mayo Bowl on Wednesday afternoon. With that being said, I'm expecting a battle in the trenches of sorts as the Badgers line up against the Demon Deacons. Wisconsin of course owns one of the best defenses in the nation, ranking 12th in points per play allowed. The Badgers check in 16th in yards per rush allowed and 12th in yards per pass attempt given up. Wake Forest QB Sam Hartman suffered some regression this season, throwing more than two touchdown passes in a game just once - that performance coming in a wild 59-53 loss to North Carolina. He does do a nice job of taking care of the football, having thrown just one interception this season. I see this game playing out with the Demon Deacons finding some success moving the football against a tough Badgers defense but not finishing many drives with 7's on the board. Likewise, the Badgers should be able to find some running room against a weak Demon Deacons run defense but they certainly didn't show the ability during the regular season to score with any consistency and are particularly limited in their passing offense with QB Graham Mertz asked to be little more than a game manager, having completed more than 20 passes in a game only once. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
12-29-20 | Raptors v. 76ers -2 | 93-100 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Raptors certainly haven't looked like a top contender in the Eastern Conference out of the gate this season, going winless through two games. I don't see this as an ideal bounce-back spot for the Raps as they stay on the road to face a 76ers squad that is coming off a blowout loss in Cleveland - a game in which they were without Joel Embiid after he experienced some back tightness in warmups. All indications are he will be back on Tuesday but even if he's not, I like the Sixers chances of handing the Raps a third consecutive loss. With Pascal Siakam still struggling (picking up where he left off in last summer's 'bubble' playoffs) and minimal bench production with key contributor Norm Powell having shot 2-for-16 through two games, Toronto is left looking for answers right now. I simply feel a better opportunity for it to get on track will come back in Tampa on Thursday against the Knicks. Take Philadelphia (10*). | |||||||
12-29-20 | Oklahoma State v. Miami-FL UNDER 61.5 | Top | 37-34 | Loss | -107 | 19 h 10 m | Show |
CFB Bowl Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma State and Miami at 5:30 pm et on Tuesday. This game is being pegged as a potential offensive shootout. I'm not so sure that's how it will play out on the field, however. Oklahoma State was supposed to contend for a Big 12 Championship this season but a nagging ankle injury to RB Chuba Hubbard helped derail its hopes, and now Hubbard has opted-out of the Cheez-It Bowl to prepare for the NFL Draft. While the Cowboys offensive cupboard is by no means bare without Hubbard, I expect them to have their work cut out for them here. That's mainly because QB Spencer Sanders has failed to impress in his sophomore campaign. He threw more than a single touchdown pass just twice in eight games during the regular season and threw at least one interception in six of those contests. He's likely to be under duress for much of this game with Miami ranking a respectable 39th in the nation in sack percentage with that ranking rising to ninth over its last three games. Yes, the Canes have struggled against the run, which is the Cowboys strength, but here I'm not sure they'll respect Sanders enough to stray from stacking the box and forcing him to beat them through the air. On the flip side, the Miami offense showed flashes of brilliance with transfer QB D'Eriq King this season, but now face an underrated Oklahoma State defense that ranks ninth in the country in sack percentage and 22nd in yards allowed per pass attempt. Note that Miami RB Cam'Ron Harris ran for exactly 134 yards in each of his first two games this season but never reached those heights again, topping out at 96 rush yards over his last eight contests while being held to 63 rush yards or less in seven of those. It doesn't take many stalled drives to stay 'under' a lofty total such as this one. Both offenses are capable of moving the football but long, clock-churning drives can work in our favor in this case. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
12-28-20 | Bills v. Patriots UNDER 46.5 | 38-9 | Loss | -112 | 13 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Buffalo and New England at 8:15 pm et on Monday. We won with the 'over' in the Bills rout of the Broncos last Saturday but I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'under' as they head to New England to face the rival Patriots on Monday night. Buffalo's defense has stiffened up considerably down the stretch and should have little trouble containing a Pats offense that has struggled all season, but particularly of late. The Bills don't give up many big plays downfield and actually check in as a top-10 run defense over their last three contests which should severely limit New England's ability to move the football into scoring range. On paper, the Bills should have their way with the Pats defense but New England remains a well-coached, prideful football team and I can't see it simply rolling over in this late season division game, especially after dropping a tough 24-21 decision in Buffalo earlier this season. I certainly expect the Pats to do a better job containing the Bills offense than Denver did last week, or San Francisco did the last time Buffalo appeared on Monday Night Football three weeks ago. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
12-28-20 | Jazz v. Thunder +7.5 | 110-109 | Win | 100 | 22 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Utah at 8:05 pm et on Monday. The Thunder were pegged by many to finish near the bottom of the Western Conference standings this season but they're off to a 1-0 start after defeating the Hornets in their opener on Saturday. I believe OKC is catching too many points again in this spot as it hosts its home opener against the 1-1 Jazz. It's worth noting that the Thunder posted eight blocks in their opener - that's more than the usually defensive-minded Jazz have recorded in their first two games combined (7). The Thunder also notched eight steals in their season debut - while they may lack the talent of a playoff contender, they're hungry and out to prove their many doubters wrong. That's often a recipe for success - at least early in the season. I do think OKC is catching Utah at the right time as the Jazz looked out of sync last time out and star guard Donovan Mitchell has shot just 12-of-39 from the floor through two games - clearly still shaking off the rust after a unique offseason. Take Oklahoma City (10*). | |||||||
12-27-20 | Titans v. Packers OVER 54 | Top | 14-40 | Push | 0 | 24 h 38 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and Green Bay at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. We've seen this total drop and that likely has something to do with the forecast calling for possible snow and cold conditions at Lambeau Field on Sunday night. We're not likely going to see the type of weather that has a real impact on scoring, however, and I certainly feel that this game has shootout potential in the second-last Sunday Nighter of the regular season. We rode the Titans offense to victory in last week's blowout win over the Lions but the matchup is obviously much tougher here as they travel to face the Packers. With that being said, I like Tennessee's chances of finding continued offensive success with QB Ryan Tannehill having settled into a groove with standout WR duo A.J. Brown and Corey Davis and RB Derrick Henry absolutely running wild down the stretch. Henry draws a favorable matchup here against a Packers defense that can't stop the run. On the flip side, the Packers offense is relatively healthy and figures to feast on a bottom of the barrel Titans defense that has only avoided embarrassment thanks to facing the lowly Jaguars and Lions over the last two weeks. Tennessee doesn't get after opposing quarterbacks at all, which spells likely doom against MVP front-runner Aaron Rodgers. Note that only three teams have allowed more yardage to wide receivers than the Titans this season, setting this up as a monster spot for WR Davante Adams and company. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
12-27-20 | Eagles v. Cowboys UNDER 50 | Top | 17-37 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 7 m | Show |
NFC East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Dallas at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I really liked the way the 'over' set up in the Eagles narrow loss to the Cardinals week but didn't end up playing it due to the inconsistent nature of the two offenses. It was obviously the wrong decision but that high-scoring outcome does seem to be leading plenty of bettors to the window to play the 'over' in this one. Most are very high on Eagles rookie QB Jalen Hurts' after he ran wild against the Saints and then threw for 300+ yards against the Cardinals last week. I'm not convinced we're going to see another big performance from Hurts in the boxscore on Sunday, however - even if this is a mouth-watering matchup against the lowly Cowboys. Keep in mind, while Hurts did throw for 338 yards and three touchdowns in Arizona, he also took six sacks, fumbled the ball three times and completed just 24-of-44 passes. In other words, Hurts is no sure thing to explode against an admittedly beatable Cowboys defense on Sunday. With each passing week opponents have a little more tape on Hurts and it's not as if he has an elite supporting cast. Dallas' offense remains in shambles, although you wouldn't know it by last week's wild 41-33 win over the 49ers. That high-scoring result serves us well here as it keeps this total higher than it probably should be noting these two teams combined for 32 points the last time they faced each other. While the Eagles are dealing with a cluster of injuries in their secondary, I'm not sure that QB Andy Dalton and the Dallas offense is capable of taking advantage. Philadelphia still has a vaunted pass rush, ranking second in the NFL in sack percentage this season. The Cowboys offense ranks 23rd in sacks allowed per game. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
12-27-20 | Mavs +5 v. Clippers | 124-73 | Win | 100 | 18 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Los Angeles at 3:35 pm et on Sunday. I'll grab the points with the Mavericks as they look to record their first victory of the season on Sunday afternoon. This is obviously a tough matchup against the undefeated Clippers but I expect the Mavs to be up for the challenge after pushing the Clips to six games in last summer's 'bubble' playoffs. Los Angeles shot the lights out in its most recent victory against Denver, hitting 55% overall, 50% from three-point range and 83% from the free throw line. The Mavs have their work cut out for them but should be much tougher on the Clips than they were on the Lakers when they allowed 56% shooting on Friday night. While we won with L.A. on opening night, that was in an underdog role against the rival Lakers. Off consecutive wins to open the campaign, I look for the Clips to sputter here. Take Dallas (10*). | |||||||
12-27-20 | Giants v. Ravens -9.5 | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 17 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. It seems that most bettors abandoned the Ravens weeks ago but those who have stuck around have been handsomely rewarded as they've reeled off three straight wins and covers over the last three weeks. Here, they appear primed to deliver another lopsided victory, this time at the expense of the up and down Giants. Baltimore endured plenty of adversity due to Covid earlier this season but now find themselves in terrific shape with most of their key cogs on both sides of the football rested and (relatively) healthy. The same can't be said for the Giants, who have had numerous players in and out of the lineup, including QB Daniel Jones who remains less than 100% healthy entering this contest. That stunning upset win in Seattle back on December 6th (we won with New York in that game) may end up being the high point in an otherwise disappointing campaign. We're being asked to lay plenty of points in this contest, but I believe the line could be even higher. Take Baltimore (10*). | |||||||
12-26-20 | Raptors -1 v. Spurs | 114-119 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto minus the points over San Antonio at 8:35 pm et on Saturday. The best thing for the Raptors may be to hit the road at this point after they opened their season with a disappointing 'home' loss to the Pelicans in Tampa. Toronto simply went ice cold from the field in the second half against New Orleans. I don't expect to see much carry-over from that performance here, however. Meanwhile, San Antonio lit it up in its season-opener against Memphis, scoring 130+ points in the process. Demar Derozan not surprisingly led the way in that contest. I'm not all that high on the Spurs and figure they're in for a bit of a letdown here. I'll bank on the Raps responding with a sharp performance on Saturday night. Take Toronto (10*). | |||||||
12-26-20 | 49ers v. Cardinals -5 | 20-12 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona minus the points over San Francisco at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. This sets up as an ideal matchup for the surging Cardinals, who will be aiming for their third straight victory on Saturday afternoon. The 49ers are likely to be in tough with third-string QB C.J. Beathard taking over under center. He's had plenty of chances as an NFL quarterback and has generally failed miserably. There's little reason to expect a great deal of improvement here with the 49ers offense quite simply broken in what has amounted to a lost season due to injuries and otherwise. Cardinals QB Kyler Murray lit up the 49ers back in Week 1 and projects to do the same here in Week 16 with the Niners missing both Richard Sherman and Jimmie Ward, two key cogs in their secondary. We haven't backed the Cards often this season but this is an ideal spot laying a very reasonable number at home against a Niners squad that's simply playing out the string. Take Arizona (10*). | |||||||
12-26-20 | Bucs v. Lions OVER 54 | Top | 47-7 | Push | 0 | 16 h 53 m | Show |
NFL Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Detroit at 1 pm et on Saturday. This is an absolute smash spot for the Bucs offense coming off an encouraging come-from-behind win in Atlanta last Sunday. Detroit is a mess defensively with a number of key cogs missing, including their top two cornerbacks. The Bucs should be able to take their pick here as to whether they want to throw all over the Lions beatable pass defense or run wild against their non-existent run defense. While I've been high on the Bucs defense for much of the season, I do think Detroit can do some damage in this game with enough skill position players performing well (most notably WR Marvin Jones, TE T.J. Hockenson and RB D'Andre Swift) to instill confidence in this possible letdown game for Tampa Bay. QB Matt Stafford is still banged-up nursing multiple injuries but there's little reason to expect him to do anything but bomb away in this 'nothing to lose' matchup. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
12-25-20 | Vikings v. Saints UNDER 51.5 | 33-52 | Loss | -118 | 20 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and New Orleans at 4:30 pm et on Friday. This game may project as a shootout on paper as both the Vikings and Saints are known for their prolific offenses, however, I'm expecting it to play out lower-scoring than most expect. We won with the 'over' in the Vikings last game, a wild home loss to the Bears last Sunday. Of course, we were dealing with a total in the mid-40's in that game, and it actually set up more favorably for the Vikings offense. Here, Minnesota's run-first mentality may actually plague it with RB Dalvin Cook dealing with numerous injuries and playing on a short week. Meanwhile, QB Kirk Cousins has been a true 'Jekyll-and-Hyde' and figures to struggle against the Saints vaunted pass rush. New Orleans struggled to get to Chiefs mobile QB Pat Mahomes last Sunday but should tee off on a statue-esque Cousins here. While the Vikings have struggled defensively for the most part this season, we have seen signs of life from them against the pass in recent weeks. The Saints are in a bit of a state of flux right now with Drew Brees back under center and dealing with the absence of WR Michael Thomas. RB Alvin Kamara will get his, but that may only lead to long, clock-churning offensive drives rather than consistent 7's on the board. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
12-25-20 | Pelicans v. Heat -160 | 98-111 | Win | 100 | 16 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami (moneyline) over New Orleans at 12:05 pm et on Friday. I'll back the Heat on the moneyline as they look to bounce back from a tough season-opening loss to the Magic. New Orleans caught fire shooting the ball in the second half against the Raptors in its season-opener with journeyman J.J. Redick shooting 8-of-14 from the field in a 23-point performance off the bench. I don't expect a repeat performance here. While I'm certainly high on Zion Williamson - as are most - I question how much depth the Pelicans really have. The other five Pelicans bench players to see action on Wednesday combined to score nine points. Miami got a miserable five made three-pointers from its starting five in Wednesday's narrow loss in Orlando. There's reason to believe we'll see a solid bounce-back performance here, however. The fact that the Heat were even in that game at all was impressive considering Orlando shot 48% from the field and got to the free throw line a whopping 30 times. Rather than lay the points here, I'll back the Heat at a very reasonable price on the moneyline. Take Miami moneyline (10*). | |||||||
12-24-20 | Hawaii v. Houston UNDER 60.5 | Top | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 21 h 7 m | Show |
CFB Bowl Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Hawaii and Houston at 3:30 pm et on Thursday. This one is being pegged as a potential shootout between the Rainbow Warriors and Cougars - after all, both programs are known for their high-octane offenses and what else would we want to see on Christmas Eve other than a wild, high-scoring affair? With that being said, I believe this lofty total will prove too high. Hawaii checks in ranked 88th in the nation in points per play, struggling against any defense with a pulse this season. While Houston could be undermanned due to ineligibility and opt-outs, it still possesses a defense that ranks an impressive eighth in the country in sack percentage. Meanwhile, the Warriors offense ranked a miserable 92nd in the nation in QB sacked percentage this season. It's certainly worth noting that the Cougars are expected to miss arguably their best offensive player in WR Marquez Stevenson, who has apparently elected to opt out to prepare for the NFL Draft. While the cupboard is by no means bare for the Cougars on offense, QB Clayton Tune can't be asked to do it all. Hawaii actually finished the season ranked a respectable 39th in the nation in yards allowed per pass attempt. I suspect we'll see plenty of long, clock-churning drives in this game, ultimately keeping it 'under' the lofty total. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
12-23-20 | Hawks -1.5 v. Bulls | 124-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Hawks endured another miserable season last year, ultimately ending up one of only eight teams to miss out on the 'bubble' invite this past Summer. While there will be no shortage of motivation in Atlanta, I believe the Hawks also have the pieces in place to take a significant step forward here in 2020-21. With a number of new faces in the mix there's reason to think that they could struggle in the early going as they try to find some chemistry but the preseason was encouraging as they were competitive in three of four games (in their lone blowout loss Trae Young made just four field goals in 26 minutes of action). I see this as the perfect opening night matchup for the Hawks as they travel to Chicago to face a Bulls squad that is also looking to turn things around following a dismal campaign. For the Bulls, I believe the road back to respectability might take a little longer. There's a lot to be excited about with Coby White ready to emerge as a star in the league and plenty of role players capable of stepping up around him. I'm just not convinced they have the offense to keep pace with the Hawks at this early stage of the season. Atlanta scored 112, 116, 106 and 117 in four preseason games with a real key being the steadying performances of veteran free agent acquisitions Danilo Gallinari and Bogdan Bogdanovic off the bench - something it has really been missing in recent years. Behind big opening night performances from Trae Young and Cam Reddish, look for the Hawks to prevail. Take Atlanta (10*). | |||||||
12-23-20 | Florida Atlantic +9 v. Memphis | 10-25 | Loss | -116 | 22 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Florida Atlantic plus the points over Memphis at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Many will make the case that Florida Atlantic doesn't belong in a Bowl game at all after an embarrassing 45-31 loss to Southern Miss in its regular season finale. Keep in mind, the Owls were essentially playing for nothing in that game with only a (very) outside chance at reaching the C-USA Championship Game. FAU had started the season 5-1 before dropping its final two contests. Still, the Owls check in ranked an impressive 7th in the nation in points allowed per play and I believe they can do enough offensively to shorten this game and let their defense take care of the rest. Memphis didn't have a banner year by its own program's standards, losing three games to finish 3rd in the AAC. QB Brady White topped out at two touchdown passes in his last four games and took a ton of sacks and threw a bunch of interceptions over the course of the season. Meanwhile, the Tigers ground attack wasn't all that dynamic at all, ranking 97th in the country in yards per rush. Look for the Owls to do what they can to muck this one up and ultimately stay inside the number. Take Florida Atlantic (10*). | |||||||
12-23-20 | Florida Atlantic v. Memphis UNDER 52 | 10-25 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Florida Atlantic and Memphis at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Memphis hasn't been the same offensive juggernaut we've become accustomed to seeing here in 2020, ranking 59th in the country in offensive touchdowns per game and 72nd in yards per play. Here, the Tigers will face a Florida Atlantic squad that checks in an impressive seventh in the nation in points per play allowed. There's little reason to expect a real offensive breakthrough from the Owls offense in this one. Their calling card has been controlling the football (and the clock) and leaving it up to their defense to take care of the rest. The Owls check in 109th and 110th respectively in points allowed per play and offensive touchdowns per game. On the flip side, only two teams have allowed fewer offensive touchdowns per game this season. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
12-23-20 | Georgia Southern v. Louisiana Tech UNDER 49 | 38-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Georgia Southern and Louisiana Tech at 3 pm et on Wednesday. Bettors are generally quick to play the 'over' in most Bowl games and the New Orleans Bowl on the fast track at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome has been no exception over the years. With that being said, this has obviously been a unique season and here we have two teams that labored offensively through much of the campaign and are dealing with question marks all over the field. One thing we do know is that Georgia Southern will focus on running the football and eating clock - likely with its third-string quarterback. I'm not convinced many of the Eagles offensive drives will turn into 7's on the board, however, and Louisiana Tech's offense simply doesn't match up well with a Georgia Southern defense that ranks 33rd in the country in points allowed per play. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
12-22-20 | Clippers +3.5 v. Lakers | 116-109 | Win | 100 | 14 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the Clippers plus the points over the Lakers at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. I'll take the points with the Clippers on opening night as they look to put an awful preseason behind them against the defending champion Lakers. There will be no shortage of motivation in the Clippers locker room this season after a 2019-20 campaign that turned out to be a disappointment. I think this is the perfect matchup for them to start the season with. While the Lakers showed flashes of brilliance in the preseason, I'm not convinced they're putting too much stock in this opening night result. As they work their way back into form, we'll grab the points with the underdog Clippers in a game where I fully expect them to bring their 'A' effort. Take the Clippers (10*). | |||||||
12-22-20 | Warriors v. Nets -7 | 99-125 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Brooklyn minus the points over Golden State at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. While expectations are obviously quite high in Brooklyn with both Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving back healthy, I believe they're warranted. Meanwhile, the Warriors season essentially went by the wayside before it even started with Klay Thompson going down with a season-ending injury. While a healthy Steph Curry obviously means Golden State should be improved compared to last year, I don't like the roster they currently have assembled (note that Draymond Green is expected to miss the opener). Maybe Curry shoots the lights out and keeps this one competitive, but I think there's a better chance that the Nets run away and hide with a decisive opening-night victory. Take Brooklyn (10*). | |||||||
12-22-20 | Tulane v. Nevada +2.5 | 27-38 | Win | 100 | 19 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Nevada plus the points over Tulane at 3:30 pm et on Tuesday. Nevada was red hot prior to its stunning loss at Hawaii on November 29th. The Wolf Pack had won five straight games to open the season including a huge victory over San Diego State in a nationally-televised game a week earlier. From there, Nevada stumbled, dropping two of its final three games overall, clearing its bandwagon in the process. So perhaps it's not all that surprising that the Wolf Pack have been installed as short underdogs in this Bowl matchup with Tulane. I still feel Nevada has plenty of upside and will be up for this game on the familiar blue turf in Boise. Tulane had an up and down season, ultimately going 6-5 overall. The Green Wave didn't do anything particularly well, although they did rank a respectable 38th in the nation in points allowed per play. The problem is, Nevada finished 10 spots ahead of them in that category. While the Green Wave did put up better offensive numbers, they also faced a schedule littered with sieve-like defenses in the AAC. Look for Nevada to finish its 2020 campaign strong. Take Nevada (10*). | |||||||
12-21-20 | Steelers -14 v. Bengals | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 8 m | Show |
AFC North Game of the Year. My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over Cincinnati at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I can understand bettors being hesitant to back the Steelers laying all of those points off back-to-back subpar performances against Washington and Buffalo. However, I expect to see Pittsburgh win this game in a walk as it catches a favorable 'get right' matchup against the lowly Bengals on Monday Night Football. A real key here should be the Bengals absolute inability to get after opposing quarterbacks. Particularly at this stage of his career, Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger is at his best when afforded time to operate in the backfield, and he should face very little pressure against the Bengals, giving him ample time to find his dynamic wide receiving corps downfield. I'm not convinced we'll see Pittsburgh gain a whole lot of headway on the ground in this one, but that's just fine as it will force it to take to the air where it should feast on a weak Cincinnati secondary that has been torched by big plays time and time again this season. This is a nightmare matchup for the Bengals injury-ravaged offense. They'll turn to QB Ryan Finley here. If you can believe it, he represents a step down from Brandon Allen, who was unable to accomplish anything positive since standout rookie Joe Burrow went down to injury. Finley will be charged with the unenviable task of operating behind an offensive line that has been among the worst in the league at protecting the quarterback. Only one team has allowed more sacks this season. Cincinnati will simply be looking to keep this one respectable but I think it will be hard-pressed to stay inside the number. Take Pittsburgh (10*). | |||||||
12-21-20 | North Texas +21 v. Appalachian State | 28-56 | Loss | -107 | 20 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on North Texas plus the points over Appalachian State at 2:30 pm et on Monday. Appalachian State had high hopes entering this season but I don't think playing in the Myrtle Beach Bowl was near the top of its priority list. Meanwhile, North Texas is playing with 'house money' reaching a Bowl game despite a 4-5 overall record. I look for the Mean Green Eagles to put up a fight on Monday afternoon. I do think North Texas has a path to victory in this game with a potent offense and a defense that gets after opposing quarterbacks, ranking 23rd in the nation in sack percentage this season. By contrast, Appalachian State's vaunted defense ranked just 70th in that category. Offensively, UNT is explosive, ranking 28th in the country in yards per pass attempt and 21st in yards per rush. I will admit that the Eagles faced a weaker schedule than Appalachian State but I don't believe there's a great intimidation factor at play here. In a game where both teams have reason to simply go through the motions rather than treat this as a true Bowl experience, I'll grab the generous helping of points. Take North Texas (10*). | |||||||
12-21-20 | Wofford v. Texas A&M OVER 133 | 52-70 | Loss | -113 | 6 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Wofford and Texas A&M at 1 pm et on Monday. I'm expecting a relatively high-scoring affair in this intriguing early afternoon matchup on Monday. It's certainly worth noting that Texas A&M checks in 212th in the nation in three-point percentage allowed given that Wofford ranks second in percentage of points coming from three-pointers (51.4%). The Terriers sit an impressive third in the country in three-pointers made per game with over 12. I do think the Aggies can counteract the Terriers hot outside shooting as they rank top 100 in offensive efficiency and fifth in free throws made per offensive play. We should also see A&M get its transition game going as it ranks top 50 in steals per possession. Neither team has had a penchant for stuffing the opposition with Wofford and Texas A&M ranking 234th and 260th respectively in blocks per game. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
12-20-20 | Lions v. Titans -9 | Top | 25-46 | Win | 100 | 23 h 16 m | Show |
NFL Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Tennessee minus the points over Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. A lot of bettors jumped off the Titans bandwagon following their ugly home loss to the Browns two weeks ago but not us as we cashed Tennessee in last week's rout of the Jaguars. At the same time, we also faded the Lions but unfortunately just missed cashing that ticket thanks to a back-door Lions cover against Green Bay. Here, I won't hesitate to fade Detroit again as it hits the road for a poor matchup against a playoff-bound Titans squad. Tennessee enjoyed a true 'get right' performance in Jacksonville last Sunday and should enter this game brimming with confidence. With the Lions doing nothing to stop or even slow opposing ground attacks, Titans monster RB Derrick Henry should absolutely feast in this game. Meanwhile, QB Ryan Tannehill found his rhythm again in last Sunday's victory and should enjoy another solid day against an injury-ravaged Lions secondary. Ordinarily I would be fairly high on Lions veteran backup QB Chase Daniel (who is expected to start in place of an injured Matt Stafford) but right now Detroit's offense is simply too banged-up with WR Kenny Golladay still sidelined and a potential gaping hole on the offensive line with C Frank Ragnow having suffered a brutal throat injury last week. Take Tennessee (10*). | |||||||
12-20-20 | Patriots +2 v. Dolphins | Top | 12-22 | Loss | -113 | 23 h 7 m | Show |
AFC East Game of the Year. My selection is on New England plus the points over Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday. It's not easy to back the Patriots these days but I do believe they warrant support in Sunday's trip to Miami to face the Dolphins. New England's offense is obviously a shell of its former self but the good news here is that you can run on Miami. I'm confident we'll see the Pats stay run-heavy with QB Cam Newton and their stable of running backs in this one and do all they can to stay away from the Dolphins stout secondary. This is precisely the type of game where New England should be able to impose its will not only with its ground game but also with its still-underrated defense. Miami is expected to be without a couple of key cogs offensively with TE Mike Gesicki and WR Jakeem Grant banged-up and questionable to play. Even if they can go it remains to be seen whether they'll be on a snap count or overly effective. QB Tua Tagovailoa threw for over 300 yards and two touchdowns last week but completed just 28-of-48 passes and threw an interception and was sacked four times. He benefited from game flow in the fourth quarter of that contest as the Fins were behind by virtually three touchdowns and the Chiefs defense softened considerably. Few will have much interest in backing the Pats off last week's embarrassing nationally-televised blowout loss to the Rams. We'll go the contrarian route here. Take New England (10*). | |||||||
12-20-20 | Bears v. Vikings OVER 47 | Top | 33-27 | Win | 100 | 23 h 58 m | Show |
NFC North Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Minnesota at 1 pm et on Sunday. I can understand the relatively low posted total here as we saw just 32 points scored the last time these two teams met back on November 16th in Chicago. However, the domed environment in Minnesota along with the steady improvement of the Bears offense with Mitchell Trubisky under center (I can't believe I'm saying that) should lead to a much higher-scoring affair here. Only four teams have allowed more touchdown passes than the Vikings this season and that's had a lot to do with the fact that they've had virtually no success getting after opposing quarterbacks. Trubisky and WR Allen Robinson in particular should have a field day on Sunday afternoon. Interestingly enough, a key to this play could be the ability of the Bears defense to minimize Vikings RB Dalvin Cook's effectiveness. That should force QB Kirk Cousins to take to the air more often than usual, which would be a good thing for us with an 'over' ticket in hand as the Bears are vulnerable against the pass and Cousins has a true dynamic duo at WR in Adam Thielen and standout rookie Justin Jefferson. This has the potential to turn into a back-and-forth, high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
12-19-20 | Boise State v. San Jose State +7 | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 19 h 49 m | Show |
CFB Conference Championship Game of the Year. My selection is on San Jose State plus the points over Boise State at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. In what has been a truly unique 2020 college football season one thing has remained the same and that's Boise State contending for a Mountain West Conference Championship. With that being said, I don't consider the Broncos to be the same juggernaut they've been in years' past. I'm not sure we can consider any of their victories this season truly impressive as they faced a rather weak conference schedule. In their lone 'step up' game they got blown out 51-17 at the hands of BYU. Meanwhile, San Jose State did nothing but impress. The Spartans exceeded most expectations by going a perfect 6-0, including impressive wins over San Diego State and Nevada. I certainly expect the Spartans to be a 'tough out' in this contest on Saturday. Only eight teams in the country have allowed fewer points per play than the Spartans this season. Boise State checks in 43rd in that category. There's no question the Broncos do have the more explosive offense but what else is new. I will point out that QB Hank Bachmeier hasn't been the same 'field general' we've become accustomed to seeing running the Broncos offense. He threw exactly one touchdown in three of his four games this season while throwing a pair of interceptions in his last two contests and was sacked eight times overall. The Spartans have the type of defense that can minimize the effectiveness of this Boise State offense, noting they rank 20th in the country in yards per rush allowed and 20th in sack percentage. Take San Jose State (10*). | |||||||
12-19-20 | Bills v. Broncos OVER 49 | Top | 48-19 | Win | 100 | 27 h 44 m | Show |
AFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Buffalo and Denver at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. I'm expecting a relatively high-scoring affair as the Bills head to Denver to face the Broncos on Saturday. The Buffalo offense is certainly catching the Denver defense as the right time with the Broncos missing numerous key cogs on that side of the football. Vic Fangio is a terrific defensive coach but he can only do so much with the limited personnel he has on hand. Missing the majority of its starting secondary, the Broncos are likely to get lit up by a red hot Josh Allen. Note that no team has allowed more rushing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks than the Broncos this season and we know Allen can be just as much of a threat with his legs as he is with his arm. Denver showed plenty of life offensively in last week's road win over the Panthers - scoring 32 points in the process. With the Broncos offensive line getting back to full strength, QB Drew Lock could be in for another solid day statistically on Saturday. Lock has obviously become accustomed to playing from behind, which is likely to be the case again here. Look for the Broncos to do enough offensively to help this one 'over' the very reasonable total. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
12-19-20 | Washington State v. Utah -10.5 | Top | 28-45 | Win | 100 | 24 h 0 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Utah minus the points over Washington State at 1:30 pm et on Saturday. A potential Bowl spot is on the line in this game between Washington State and Utah on Saturday afternoon. That is if either team is even interested in a Bowl game. Nevertheless, I look for the Utes to continue their upward trend with another strong performance in their home finale in this unique 2020 season. There's no question the Utes have been getting stronger with each passing game. In their lone previous home tilt they fell in blowout fashion against USC but that was after months of cancellations and no previous game action. We saw Utah put it all together in a 38-21 road win over a good Colorado squad last week and I look for it to build off that performance here. We were actually on Washington State last week before its game against Cal got canceled due to Covid issues. That leaves the Cougars in a tough spot here trying to once again get amped up for a game that really doesn't mean a whole lot in the grand scheme of things (again, Bowl eligibility doesn't mean quite as much this season with many teams opting out). Cougars QB Jayden De Laura has shown some flashes of brilliance but has also been sacked five times and tossed three interceptions in three games. RB Max Borghi might see game action for the first time this season after a banner 2019 campaign but it remains to be seen how effective he can be against a very stout Utes run defense. Note that Utah checks into this game ranked 55th in the nation in points allowed per play. Take Utah (10*). | |||||||
12-19-20 | Oklahoma v. Iowa State UNDER 58.5 | Top | 27-21 | Win | 100 | 23 h 27 m | Show |
Big 12 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma and Iowa State at 12 noon et on Saturday. This isn't the first time we've played the 'under' in the Big 12 Championship Game. It seems that on an annual basis most bettors are comfortable backing the 'over' in this contest played on the fast track at AT&T Stadium. Note that only one of the last five Big 12 title games have totaled more than 58 points. Of course, Oklahoma is a perennial Big 12 title contender having appeared in this game in seven of the last eight years. I consider this year's Sooners squad to be a little different. I certainly don't put QB Spencer Rattler in the same category as the previous three players to QB the Sooners in this game, Jalen Hurts, Kyler Murray and Baker Mayfield. Note that Rattler has thrown for more than two touchdowns just once in his last five games. He topped out at 332 passing yards in those games, topping 300 yards only twice. Also note that he's been sacked seven times in the last two contests. Obviously the Sooners still boast a potent offense but they're running into a tough opponent in Iowa State here. The Cyclones have been a largely underrated commodity for much of this season and check in having allowed just 26 points over their last three games combined. Iowa State checks in 29th in the nation in points allowed per play. Meanwhile, Oklahoma has also been stout defensively, ranking 37th in the country in points allowed per play. While the Cyclones have had some breakout performances offensively, they're not what I would consider a juggernaut in that regard. QB Brock Purdy hasn't attempted more than 36 passes in a game since back on October 10th against Texas Tech. When these two teams met back on October 24th we saw a wild 37-30 game won by Iowa State. That game was actually fairly defensive until a late fourth quarter scoring flurry that saw three touchdowns in the game's final eight minutes. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
12-18-20 | UAB v. Marshall UNDER 42.5 | Top | 22-13 | Win | 100 | 57 h 11 m | Show |
CFB Conference Championship Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between UAB and Marshall at 7 pm et on Friday. This is certainly a low total by today's college football standards but much like our play on the 'under' in last Saturday's Wisconsin-Iowa matchup, I believe it is warranted. UAB shook off the rust after not playing for over a month due to Covid protocols, holding on for a 21-16 win but non-cover against Rice last week. The Blazers are expected to get some reinforcements on both sides of the ball this week with their entire team testing negative for Covid earlier this week. That means they'll have their tremendous stable of running backs back on the field. While that may help them extend their offensive drives in this game, it's certainly worth noting that Marshall has been extremely stingy against opposing running backs this season. In fact, the Thundering Herd rank tied for top spot in the nation in rush yards allowed per attempt (along with Georgia) at a measly 2.3. Only Cincinnati has allowed fewer points per play than Marshall this season. Of course, UAB can hold its own in that department as well with a loaded, experienced defense that ranks 21st in the nation in points per play allowed. The Blazers check in an impressive 16th in the country in yards allowed per game. I don't have a great deal of confidence in either starting quarterback in this matchup to be honest. I really think that both teams will enter this game with a focus on running the football, controlling the clock and letting their defenses take care of the rest. Expect Tyler Johnston and Grant Wells to assume dreaded 'game manager' roles with a Conference Championship on the line. There will be a few big plays, but I'm confident the game ultimately slides 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
12-18-20 | BYU +7.5 v. San Diego State | 72-62 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on BYU plus the points over San Diego State at 5 pm et on Friday. The Cougars are catching too many points in this matchup as they look to hand San Diego State its first loss of the season. Note that the Aztecs rank 215th in the nation in points allowed per game from three-pointers while BYU ranks 66th in points scored per game from three-point range. I do think there's a path to victory for the Cougars in this one as they match up well with the Aztecs in terms of rebounding at both ends of the floor. As you would expect, San Diego State ranks a solid 83rd in the country in total rebounding percentage but BYU is just behind it sitting 87th. It's not as if the Cougars have faced a cupcake schedule either. Here in December they've gone 3-2 in games against USC, St. John's, Utah State, Boise State and Utah. The potential is there for this game to go right down to the wire. Take BYU (10*). | |||||||
12-18-20 | Central Michigan v. Western Michigan OVER 143 | 61-76 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Central Michigan and Western Michigan at 2 pm et on Friday. We have somewhat of a contrast in styles in this matchup as Central Michigan checks in T35th in the country in pace rating while Western Michigan sits T270th. Of course, the Broncos ranking has more to do with the tough competition they've faced than anything else. We've yet to see them really get going offensively, but today's matchup should afford them a chance to do just that against a Central Michigan squad that ranks T211th in defensive efficiency and 224th in block percentage. Look for a free-flowing affair between these two MAC teams on Friday afternoon. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
12-17-20 | Chargers +3.5 v. Raiders | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 36 h 19 m | Show |
TNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Las Vegas at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. I'll grab the points with the Chargers on Thursday night as they head to Las Vegas looking to win back-to-back games for the first time this season. They're catching the Raiders at the right time as Las Vegas has dropped three of its last four games, with its lone victory over that stretch coming by way of a last second hail mary against the still-winless Jets. With Rod Marinelli taking over the defensive reins there's hope that the Raiders can turn things around on that side of the football but playing on a short week, with a number of key cogs banged-up it's highly unlikely we'll see much improvement. Meanwhile, on offense the Raiders continue to trudge along with RB Josh Jacobs less than 100% healthy and now without deep threat WR Henry Ruggs as he was placed on the Covid list. While Ruggs hasn't been a true gamebreaker this season, he does have the ability to stretch out opposing defenses and will be one less downfield threat for the Chargers defense to worry about on Thursday night. Los Angeles is mired in another disappointing season under seemingly clueless head coach Anthony Lynn. With that being said, the Chargers are off a 20-17 win over the Falcons last Sunday with their defense showing signs of turning the corner with Joey Bosa back on the field in recent weeks. There's a lot to like when it comes to the Chargers offense, especially now that RB Austin Ekeler is back. He led the team in rushing and receiving in last week's victory and should be the focal point of the offense again here. This is another showcase game for rookie QB Justin Herbert and I certainly feel he has more upside than Raiders QB Derek Carr at this point. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
12-16-20 | Wagner v. Bryant OVER 153 | Top | 62-74 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 30 m | Show |
CBB NEC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Wagner and Bryant at 4 pm et on Wednesday. I'm expecting a track meet in this Northeast Conference matchup between Wagner and Bryant on Wednesday afternoon. Wagner is off to a winless start after getting hammered 78-45 by Seton Hall in its season opener last Tuesday. The Seahawks shot a miserable 27% from the field in that contest, including 3-of-20 from beyond the arc. Impressively, they did manage to grab 11 offensive rebounds and outscored the Pirates 13-6 in second chance points. That was obviously little consolation in an otherwise dismal performance, however. Here, the Seahawks should rebound and at least get their offense on track against a Bryant squad that loves to push the pace. In fact, no teams in the country ranks higher than Bryant in terms of pace rating this season. The Bulldogs are shooting an impressive 48.4% overall and making just shy of 11 three-pointers per game. It's unlikely Wagner will be able to slow them down, but as the pointspread indicates, I do expect a competitive affair that ultimately topples the total. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
12-15-20 | Charlotte v. Davidson OVER 130 | Top | 63-52 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 45 m | Show |
CBB Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Charlotte and Davidson at 7 pm et on Tuesday. I like the way this one sets up as a higher-scoring affair than most are expecting. Charlotte is off to a disappointing 1-3 start this season and checks in as a double-digit underdog here. However, I do believe the 49ers can break through offensively against a beatable Davidson defense. Note that the Wildcats check in a miserable T256th in defensive rating and average just 3.4 steals per contest, good for a laughable 317th in the country. Also note that they've recorded just seven blocks in their last four games overall. Of course, we know Davidson can score. While its pace leaves something to be desired, it has more than made up for it by shooting better than 50% from the field while averaging just shy of 10 made three-pointers per game. There's reason to believe the Wildcats can keep that going against a very average 49ers defense. Charlotte has faced a very difficult schedule so far this season and it doesn't get easier here, but the 49ers should certainly improve on a 57-point effort last time out - a game in which they shot 39% from the field and were blocked 10 times. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
12-14-20 | Ravens -3 v. Browns | Top | 47-42 | Win | 100 | 24 h 14 m | Show |
MNF Game of the Year. My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over Cleveland at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I believe this line will prove far too short as the Ravens look to beat up on the division rival Browns once again on Monday night. Baltimore enjoyed a perfect 'get right' matchup against the Cowboys last Tuesday night, cruising to a lopsided victory. That game gave all of those Ravens that missed time due to Covid protocols to shake off the rust and get back into game action leading into this key showdown with the Browns. Baltimore is virtually back at full strength now with TE Mark Andrews a key piece returning to the offense on Monday night in Cleveland. I look for the Ravens passing game in particular to feast on a Browns pass defense that will once again be without its anchor CB Denzel Ward. You certainly can't sleep on Cleveland these days as the Browns have undoubtedly exceeded expectations and played excellent football this season. But the fact remains they've faced a rather soft schedule and while last week's victory in Tennessee was impressive, QB Baker Mayfield is still best-suited as a game manager but I'm not sure he'll be afforded that opportunity here should the Browns fall behind (as I expect). The Ravens have been tough on opposing running backs and get healthier on the defensive side of the football this week. Look for them to do a better job than most at containing the dynamic RB duo of Hunt and Chubb and take the Browns out of their preferred gameplan. This is a showcase game for Ravens QB Lamar Jackson after failing to perform well in a number of spotlight games this season. I look for him to come up with one of his best efforts of the season. Take Baltimore (10*). | |||||||
12-14-20 | Rutgers v. Maryland UNDER 140.5 | Top | 74-60 | Win | 100 | 22 h 38 m | Show |
Big Ten Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Rutgers and Maryland at 6 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' as the Scarlet Knights and Terrapins do battle in an intriguing early season Big Ten matchup on Monday evening. Rutgers is off to a flawless 4-0 start this season, earning itself a top 25 ranking. The Knights have quite simply shot the lights out in the early going this season but they'll run into arguably their toughest opponent of the season to date on Monday, noting that Maryland has limited each of its first five opponents to 45% or worse shooting. While the Terps are off to a positive 4-1 start to the campaign it hasn't come without some sloppiness. Note that they've posted double-digit turnovers in each of their last four games since opening the season with a near flawless rout of Old Dominion. Likewise, Rutgers has also recorded double-digit turnovers in all but its first game this season. I expect both teams to step up defensively in this one. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
12-13-20 | Packers -8 v. Lions | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 58 m | Show |
NFC North Game of the Year. My selection is on Green Bay minus the points over Detroit at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. This is a layup for the Packers, even with the Lions riding high off last week's upset win over the Bears in Chicago. Green Bay cruised to a win over the Eagles last Sunday and now hit the road for a very friendly division matchup in the Motor City. Detroit's defense is suddenly injury-ravaged, sure to miss CB Desmond Trufant in this game. We've yet to see the Lions shut down any opposing ground attacks this season, which really opens the door for a monster performance from the Packers multi-dimensional offensive attack. On the flip side, the Packers are one team that Lions QB Matt Stafford has never really figured out. With WR Kenny Golladay still sidelined, there's little reason to believe Stafford can suddenly come to life against the Packers here. While Green Bay has allowed opposing running backs to gain plenty of ground, that will likely only serve to bait Detroit into a run-first offensive gameplan here, which could lead to some long drives, but few that put 7's on the board. Take Green Bay (10*). | |||||||
12-13-20 | Saints v. Eagles +8 | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 23 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over New Orleans at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. While most see this as a clear continuation of the Saints red hot run, I see it as a letdown spot coming off last week's divisional road win over the Falcons in Atlanta. In fact, this will be New Orelans' third straight road game in as many weeks - setting this up as a sneaky-tough spot against what is sure to be a highly-motivated Eagles squad coming off last week's 'close but no cigar' loss and no-cover against the Packers. Philadelphia will start Jalen Hurts at quarterback in what could only be considered a spark-inducing move at this point of the season. While Hurts draws a very tough matchup here, I do expect the Eagles to rally around him the rest of the season (assuming he holds onto the starting job). Saints QB Taysom Hill suddenly has a bit of pressure on him with Drew Brees' imminent return. While I won't go so far as to say the Eagles win this game outright, I do look for them to stay inside the number. Take Philadelphia (10*). | |||||||
12-13-20 | Jets v. Seahawks -14.5 | 3-40 | Win | 100 | 23 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle minus the points over New York at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. We won by fading the Seahawks in their upset loss to the Giants last week (we also cashed the 'under' in that game) but I won't hesitate to go the other way and back Seattle laying all of those points on Sunday afternoon against the hapless Jets. New York is in full letdown mode here after inexplicably blowing a prime opportunity to win perhaps its only game of the season last Sunday against Las Vegas. Now the Jets head to the west coast without a number of key cogs on offense - and don't figure to be gift-wrapped this contest the way they were by the Raiders last week. Seahawks QB Russell Wilson finally catches a break after facing a murderer's row of defenses in recent weeks. Note that the Jets rank in the league's bottom-five in quarterback hit-rate and don't figure to put Wilson under much duress on Sunday afternoon. It's almost unthinkable to lay this many points in an NFL games these days but in this particular spot, I'm confident the Seahawks can run away and hide against a Jets squad that is quite simply playing out the string. Take Seattle (10*). | |||||||
12-13-20 | Cowboys v. Bengals UNDER 43.5 | 30-7 | Win | 100 | 20 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'm not sure where the points will come from in this bottom of the barrel matchup between the Cowboys and Bengals. Dallas' offense is obviously a shell of its former self. While it does draw a favorable matchup against a very beatable Bengals defense here, I'm not convinced that QB Andy Dalton is capable of taking advantage with an injury-ravaged offensive line trying to keep him clean. It is worth noting that while the Bengals defense has struggled as a whole, that unit has actually held its own against opposing wide receivers - obviously a strength of the Cowboys offense. Cincinnati has gotten absolutely nothing done since Brandon Allen took over the starting quarterback job. Regardless who is under center for this game, I don't expect a breakout performance. The Bengals will be without a key cog on the offensive line in this one in LT Jonah Williams, opening the door for a solid performance from the Cowboys defense. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
12-13-20 | Cardinals v. Giants UNDER 47 | 26-7 | Win | 100 | 20 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. This total has settled considerably higher than I expected given the state of both teams. We won with the Giants and the 'under' in their upset win in Seattle last week. While there's a chance we see a big letdown here and their defense struggles, I believe we're looking at a large enough sample size now where their 'D' has excelled. Keep in mind, the Arizona offense has been struggling and this doesn't look like an ideal turnaround spot traveling across the country for an early start game in New Jersey. I do think the Cards can have some success in their short passing game, but that should only serve to create some long, clock-churning drives that may or may not end with 7's on the board. The Giants know who they are at this point. A run-first offense that relies on controlling the football and allowing its defense to take care of most of the heavy lifting. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
12-13-20 | Titans v. Jaguars OVER 52 | 31-10 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday. This game has real shootout potential with the Titans looking to bounce back against what most believe is a tanking Jags squad. There's little reason to expect anything other than an onslaught from the Titans offense here coming off an uncharacteristic mistake-prone performance against a good Browns defense last Sunday. We did see the Tennessee offense come to life in the second half of that contest (once it was completely out of hand). I do think we'll see some carry-over here, with RB Derrick Henry likely to run wild and WR A.J. Brown in line for a massive bounce-back against a hapless Jags secondary. Offensively, Jacksonville has somewhat shockingly held its own since journeyman QB Mike Glennon took over under center. Few pass defenses have been as bad as the Titans' in recent weeks and Glennon is poised to take advantage with a relatively healthy receiving corps. Add in dynamic RB James Robinson and I expect the Jags to put up some points in this matchup. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
12-13-20 | Titans -7 v. Jaguars | 31-10 | Win | 100 | 20 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tennessee minus the points over Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday. Backing the Titans in a prime bounce-back spot off last week's beatdown at home against the Browns is not an overly difficult decision. Two of Tennessee's best offensive pieces are in line for big round performances - namely RB Derrick Henry and WR A.J. Brown - off last week's no-show (game script of course had something to do with Henry's awful day). Note that opponents are rushing for north of 150 yards per game against Jacksonville this season. While I do think the Jags can score some points in this game, I'm not convinced they can keep up with the Titans for four quarters, nor do I believe they'll be able to come up with enough big plays on defense late to get the Tennessee offense off the field. This is a key spot for Tennessee to turn the tide and given its success against the Jags over the years, there's little reason to expect its run of dominance to come to an end. Take Tennessee (10*). | |||||||
12-12-20 | Wisconsin v. Iowa UNDER 42 | Top | 7-28 | Win | 100 | 28 h 9 m | Show |
CFB Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Wisconsin and Iowa at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'under' in this Big Ten showdown on Saturday afternoon. This game pits a matchup of two of the nation's best defensive teams while at the same time two teams that boast inconsistent, ball control, clock-churning offensive attacks. Last year we saw 46 total points in this same matchup but that game also featured a 250+ yard rushing performance from current Indianapolis Colts RB Jonathan Taylor. Were it not for his success that game easily could have been far lower-scoring. Note that the Badgers and Hawkeyes have stayed true to character here in 2020, combining fierce defense with conservative offense and the formula has worked with varied success. The Badgers and Hawkeyes check in fourth and fifth respectively in terms of points allowed per play. No team allows fewer offensive touchdowns per game than Wisconsin and while Iowa checks in a less impressive 23rd in the nation in that category, we're talking about 127 qualifying teams. The Badgers ran up the score in their first two games against Illinois and Michigan this season but that had more to do with their opponent's defensive ineptitude than anything else. Note that they've yet to have a 100-yard rusher in a game this season while QB Graham Mertz has thrown for just 559 yards and three touchdowns over his last three games. Ball security needs to be a focal point this week as he has tossed four picks in the last two games. With that in mind, look for Mertz to be relegated to a true game manager role here. Iowa's offense has been a little more consistent but will face a tough challenge against the Badgers defense this week. We've seen the Hawkeyes feast on some weak Big Ten defenses this season but also struggle against the likes of Purdue, Northwestern and Nebraska - only one of which I would consider a truly elite defensive squad (Northwestern). QB Spencer Petras has thrown more than a single touchdown just once in seven games - that coming against a hapless Illinois defense last week. I suspect both teams will be content with turning this one into a slugfest. While we're dealing with a low posted total, it could be even lower in my opinion. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
12-12-20 | Utah v. Colorado UNDER 48 | 38-21 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Colorado at 12 noon et on Saturday. We've cashed a couple of 'under' tickets with Utah already this season and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Colorado has gotten off to a perfect 4-0 start to the season on the strength of a tremendous ground game. Last week RB Jarek Broussard ran for an incredible 301 yards on 25 carries. That was against Arizona, however. He'll face a much tougher challenge against a Utah defense that has been stout against the run, allowing just north of 104 rush yards per game. On the flip side, the Utes offense has looked disjointed through three games. Perhaps that was to be expected given all the practice time they missed due to Covid protocols, which prevented them from starting the season even close to on time. Utah did score 30 points in last week's victory over Oregon State but didn't actually find the end zone in that game until just over three minutes remained in the first half. That was against a below average Oregon State defense. The Utes will face a tougher defensive opponent here as Colorado has allowed just 23 points over its last two games. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
12-11-20 | Nevada v. San Jose State UNDER 59.5 | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 14 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Nevada and San Jose State at 10 pm et on Friday. This is obviously a big game with a spot in the Mountain West Championship on the line as Nevada makes the short trip to Las Vegas to face San Jose State, with the Spartans having been displaced from their home to play this game at Sam Boyd Stadium. The betting marketplace has yielded a high posted total for this one - clearly expecting plenty of offensive fireworks. I'm just not convinced that will be the case. Nevada is coming off a 37-26 win over Fresno State - the third time it has scored exactly 37 points in a game this season, matching its season-high. QB Carson Strong went off in that contest, throwing five touchdowns. Keep in mind he had topped out at three passing scores in his last five games. This is a good offensive team but perhaps a little one-dimensional. The Spartans don't boast an elite secondary but I do expect that unit to hold its own against a somewhat predictable Wolf Pack offense. San Jose State put up 35 points in last week's victory, but that came against Hawaii, noting that the Warriors were in a clear letdown spot off an upset win over Nevada. The Spartans ground attack ran wild in that contest with RB Tyler Nevens gaining 152 yards and scoring a trio of touchdowns. Note that Nevens had topped out at 45 rushing yards in a game previously this season. Likewise, Kairee Robinson ran for 111 yards after previously reaching a season-high of 40 rushing yards in a game. If you check out my free play on this game you'll see that I'm supporting Nevada, but I'm also calling for a lower-scoring affair than most expect. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
12-11-20 | North Texas v. West Virginia OVER 138 | Top | 50-62 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
CBB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between North Texas and West Virginia at 3 pm et on Friday. I'm anticipating a relatively high-scoring contest between North Texas and West Virginia on Friday afternoon. The Mean Green Eagles are coming off consecutive losses against SEC opponents in Arkansas and Mississippi State. UNT ran into block parties against the Hogs and Bulldogs, blocked 15 times in those two contests. It's tough to get a real gauge on where the Eagles are at offensively given their only other game was played against Mississippi Valley State - a game they won by a 116-62 score. I do think they catch West Virginia in a bit of a letdown spot defensively with the Mountaineers coming off games against Gonzaga and Georgetown. I don't think we'll see WVU shy away from an up-tempo affair on Friday. The Mountaineers have scored at least 78 points in four of five games this season. The lone time they didn't came in the tail-end of a tough three-game in three-day stretch, and they still managed to get to 70 in that game against Western Kentucky. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
12-10-20 | Patriots v. Rams UNDER 45 | 3-24 | Win | 100 | 23 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New England and Los Angeles at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. I look for both of these offenses to slow-play this game from start to finish. When the Patriots have been at their best this season, we've seen their offense churn out long, clock-eating drives with QB Cam Newton enjoying plenty of success on the ground. I'm just not convinced they can finish many drives with 7's on the board against an elite Rams defense. Meanwhile, there's little reason to have much faith in Rams QB Jared Goff right now, even off a much-needed victory in Arizona last week. Goff was terrific in that game, throwing for 351 yards but he needed 47 pass attempts to get there. I don't expect to see him come close to approaching that number on Thursday. Los Angeles will respect New England's defense and employ a ball and clock control offense here - at least that's my expectation. Look for this total to prove too high. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
12-10-20 | Florida Atlantic v. Southern Miss UNDER 44 | Top | 31-45 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 57 m | Show |
C-USA Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Florida Atlantic and Southern Miss at 6:30 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' as FAU and Southern Miss close out their respective regular seasons on Thursday night. This is a major flat spot for the Owls as they suffered a deflating 20-3 loss to Georgia Southern - snapping their four-game winning streak - last time out. With Marshall's game getting canceled this week, the Owls now have virtually no shot at earning a spot in the C-USA Championship Game. For Southern Miss, this game brings a merciful end to what has been a highly disappointing 2020 campaign. It all started with a 32-21 loss to South Alabama and never really turned around from there. While there were some positive signs from the Eagles offense earlier in the season, those disappeared down the stretch with USM scoring just 33 points in its last three games against FBS opposition. Against a strong FAU defense, with nothing but pride to play for on Thursday night, I'm not expecting a sudden turnaround from the Eagles offense. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
12-09-20 | Furman +4 v. Cincinnati | 73-78 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Furman plus the points over Cincinnati at 5 pm et on Wednesday. We've already won once with Furman this season, albeit in a far easier matchup against USC Upstate (the Palladins were laying 18.5 points in that game and won by 28). Here, I'll grab the points with the Palladins as they hit the road to face Cincinnati. The Bearcats are off to a 1-1 start and certainly haven't rounded into form just yet. Through two games (an admittedly small sample size) they rank T224th in the nation in pace rating and T171st in field goal percentage. By contrast, Furman appears to be in midseason form having knocked down 52.5% of their shots. The Palladins also rank 28th in the country in rebounds per game and an impressive 17th in assists. Cincinnati would undoubtedly have more of an edge in this matchup after getting a few more games under its belt but right now, I believe the case can be made for Furman to continue its undefeated start to the season. Take Furman (10*). | |||||||
12-08-20 | Cowboys v. Ravens UNDER 45.5 | 17-34 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Baltimore at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. It's becoming less and less difficult to play NFL 'unders' as this unique Covid-tinged 2020 season goes on. Here, I'll go 'under' the total as the injury-riddled Cowboys - shells of their former selves - travel to Baltimore to face a disjointed Ravens squad due to injuries and otherwise. Dallas has very little going for it right now. Its offensive line is missing a number of key cogs and unlikely to do a good job of protecting veteran QB Andy Dalton or opening up holes for struggling RB Ezekiel Elliott on Tuesday night. On the flip side, the Ravens offense just hasn't worked with any consistency this year - a far cry from the unit that terrorized the league with a unique run-first attack last season. QB Lamar Jackson is expected to be back under center but he'll be operating with a less than healthy supporting cast. The tight end is generally a focal point in the Ravens passing game but their down to ineffective third-string journeyman Luke Willson now. The good news is, Baltimore is expected to have its full compliment of running backs on the field. Expect a concentration on moving the football by land as they eat clock and ultimately shorten this 'win and move on' type of affair. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
12-08-20 | Sevilla v. Rennes UNDER 2.5 | 3-1 | Loss | -125 | 5 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' 2.5 goals between Sevilla and Stade Rennes at 3 pm et on Tuesday. There's certainly no reason for Sevilla to force the issues from an attacking perspective here as it sits locked in second place, set to advance to the Knockout Stage regardless of its result here. Stade Rennes has just a single point to show for its efforts in five previous Champions League matches. Having failed to score in its last two matches overall there's little reason to anticipate it will be able to break down a strong Sevilla defensive form here. Take the under 2.5 goals (10*). | |||||||
12-08-20 | Morgan State v. Iona -9 | 83-72 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Iona minus the points over Morgan State at 3 pm et on Tuesday. I'll lay the points with Iona as it takes on Morgan State on Tuesday afternoon. The Gaels have split a pair of games against Seton Hall and Hofstra this season. I like the way they've made it tough on the opposition at the defensive end of the floor, recording 12 blocks through two games. Iona certainly needs to do a better job of finishing offensive possessions and taking care of the basketball after yielding 19 steals through its first two contests, but we did see it show some improvement in that regard last time out. Morgan State is 1-1 on the season as well but it's lone victory came over little-known Lincoln (PA), and it came by just eight points in a game where the Bears gave up 90+ points. Through two contests, the Bears have notched just six blocks at the defensive end of the floor. After allowing Lincoln to shoot 50% from the field and get to the free throw line 30 times last time out I suspect they'll have their hands full with Iona here. Take Iona (10*). | |||||||
12-08-20 | Club Brugge KV v. Lazio -140 | 2-2 | Loss | -140 | 5 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Lazio over Club Brugge at 12:55 pm et on Tuesday. I'll keep my analysis short with kickoff going in just over four hours. Give me Lazio over Club Brugge on Tuesday with it having regained its positive form in consecutive strong performances against Borussia Dortmund (1-1 draw) in Champions League action last week and Spezia Calcio (2-1 victory) in Serie A action over the weekend. This is a big match for Lazio as it needs to collect three points to hold its second place edge over Club Brugge and prepare to move on to the Knockout Stage. I'm not sure Brugge can perform much better than it did at home against Lazio back in late October, when it managed a 1-1 draw. Here, look for Lazio to take on a more attacking form and ultimately prevail. Take Lazio (10*). | |||||||
12-07-20 | Washington Football Team v. Steelers -6.5 | Top | 23-17 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over Washington at 5 pm et on Monday. We played the 'under' in the Steelers odd Wednesday afternoon matchup with a depleted Ravens squad last week but will shift gears and back the Black and Gold on Monday, as they host a suddenly-surging Washington Football Team. There's no question the Steelers are dealing with some key absences with edge rusher Bud Dupree the latest key cog to go down to injury or otherwise. RB James Conner is also expected to miss this game after a positive Covid test. With all of that being said, I like the matchup here. Pittsburgh is playing on a short week but does have the benefit of staying home. Washington has won three of its last five games overall but I think it's important to consider the way its schedule has played out this season. It opened 1-5, including a number of blowout losses against superior opponents including Arizona, Cleveland, Baltimore and Los Angeles (Rams). Since October 25th, the Football Team has faced the Cowboys, Giants, Lions, Bengals and Cowboys again, going 3-2 as mentioned earlier. While I do like some of the pieces Washington has in place, most notably WR Terry McLaurin and RB Antonio Gibson, not to mention a terrific defense. Here, however, I expect it to fall behind early, which would take it away from its preferred gameplan, which involves keeping QB Alex Smith in a game manager role. I look for the Steelers to force Washington to take to the air in this contest, which should severely hamper the Football Team's prospects of staying competitive in this game. Take Pittsburgh (10*). | |||||||
12-07-20 | NC-Wilmington v. East Carolina OVER 138.5 | 78-88 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between N.C.-Wilmington and East Carolina at 5 pm et on Monday. I'll call for a relatively high-scoring affair in this one. UNCW is off to a 2-1 start although it lost by 22 points in its only true test against Western Carolina. We haven't seen a great deal of intensity or positive activity metrics from the Seahawks at the defensive end of the floor, and while they'll be facing an East Carolina squad that ranks as one of the slowest paced teams in the nation (keep in mind it's early so we're dealing with a very small sample size), I'm confident we'll see the Pirates thrive offensively in this matchup (noting they're double-digit favorites at the time of writing). East Carolina has only played as well as it has had to to notch victories through three games, facing a very easy schedule that has included matchups with winless squads Charlotte and Radford and little-known North Carolina Wesleyan. Like UNCW, East Carolina hasn't shown a high-level of defensive pressure or intensity, most recently recording just four blocks and four steals in a 66-50 rout of Radford. Expect some positive regression in terms of offensive production from both teams in this one. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
12-06-20 | Broncos v. Chiefs OVER 50.5 | Top | 16-22 | Loss | -109 | 71 h 38 m | Show |
SNF Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Kansas City at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. I'm expecting a high-scoring affair as the Chiefs should ultimately have their way with the weary, injury-plagued Broncos on Sunday night - just as they did in their earlier matchup this season. Denver limps into this contest off a beatdown at the hands of the Saints last Sunday. Of course, the Broncos didn't have a hope of competing in that game with little-used wide receiver Kendall Hinton starting at quarterback. Here, they'll get QB Drew Lock back on the field and while he will likely struggle to take care of the football against an aggressive Chiefs defense, I do have some faith in him to orchestrate some scoring drives once this contest gets out of hand. It's not as if Kansas City possesses a shut down defensive unit - they're been vulnerable against the pass this season, struggling in particular against the tight end position and Denver has a sneaky-good one in Noah Fant. Likewise, Kansas City has had a tough time defending the run, allowing just north of 4.5 yards per rush. I don't need to say a lot about the Chiefs explosive offense. What you see is what you get as QB Patrick Mahomes is playing some of the best football of his career. The Chiefs should have little trouble exposing an injury-ravaged Broncos defense that gives up over 4.8 yards per rush and has been tagged for four touchdowns to WR Tyreek Hill alone over the last three matchups between these AFC West foes. As an added bonus, we can likely anticipate some short fields for the Chiefs offense thanks to their opportunistic defense taking advantage of a mistake-prone Drew Lock. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
12-06-20 | Giants +11 v. Seahawks | 17-12 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York plus the points over Seattle at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll grab the generous helping of points with the Giants as they head to the Pacific Northwest to challenge the surging Seahawks on Sunday afternoon. This line shifted once news came out that Giants QB Daniel Jones would miss this game, with journeyman Colt McCoy starting in his place. While my hopes aren't high for McCoy in this tough matchup, the G-Men have become a run-first operation anyway and I'm confident their defense can hold up well enough to keep the Seahawks within reach on Sunday. Seattle's offense has been doing just enough to win in recent weeks - no longer looking like the explosive unit we saw earlier in the season. This is a sneaky-tough matchup against a Giants defense that has been playing some of its best football and has proven to be an opportunistic group, as evidenced by last week's game-clinching fumble recovery in the final minute against Cincinnati. We've got the Giants going from nearly touchdown favorites a week ago to double-digit underdogs this week - with their playoff hopes still alive. Take New York (10*). | |||||||
12-06-20 | Giants v. Seahawks UNDER 47 | Top | 17-12 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Seattle at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. It's not easy betting NFL 'unders' these days but we won with the 'under' in the Seahawks most recent game - Monday's 23-17 win in Philadelphia and Seattle has actually seen its last three games stay 'under' the total. Here, I'm anticipating another relatively low-scoring affair as the Seahawks host the Giants. New York will be without QB Daniel Jones in this game, which means we should see an increased focus on running the football and churning out long drives in an effort to keep the Seahawks offense off the field (and protect mistake-prone veteran QB Colt McCoy). I'm high on the Giants defense and believe they're capable of rising to the occasion again here, especially given Seattle's recent shift to a more conservative gameplan after Russell Wilson's early November struggles. The Seahawks have been doing just enough on offense to win games in recent weeks, and letting their defense take care of the rest - a defense that has certainly been playing some of its best football of the season. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
12-06-20 | Jaguars v. Vikings -10 | 24-27 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll lay the points with the Vikings as they draw a favorable matchup against the lowly Jaguars on Sunday afternoon. Jacksonville's defense wasn't good to begin with and now they're dealing with a number of key injuries. With no semblance of a pass rush whatsoever, I look for Vikes QB Kirk Cousins to carve them up on Sunday afternoon. Meanwhile, Jacksonville got shredded for over seven yards per rush by the Browns and their run-first offense last Sunday. We can count on more of the same here as Minnesota RB Dalvin Cook will be salivating at thought of this matchup. Jags QB Mike Glennon did a nice job of nearly leading them all the way back against Cleveland last Sunday but I'm not convinced he can do enough to keep them within the number here. Take Minnesota (10*). |
Service | Profit |
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Ricky Tran | $756 |
ProSportsPicks | $632 |
Joseph D'Amico | $510 |
Joey Tron | $450 |
Tom Macrina | $399 |
Nick Parsons | $344 |
Sean Murphy | $306 |
Jack Jones | $303 |
William Burns | $233 |
Dan Kaiser | $220 |