Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
02-26-22 | Spurs v. Heat UNDER 226 | 129-133 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Antonio and Miami at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'over' in San Antonio's wild 157-153 double-overtime win in Washington last night but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' as the Spurs continue their road trip in Miami on Saturday. The Heat played last night as well, securing a 115-100 win over the Knicks in New York. This is a game where Miami will be looking to 'manage' proceedings in my opinion as they have another game at home against Chicago on Monday before a back-to-back on the road in Milwaukee and Brooklyn on Wednesday and Thursday. In other words, I don't think the Heat have any interest in a track meet here. Note that Miami has done a tremendous job of limiting their opponents scoring opportunities, holding three of their last six opponents to fewer than 80 field goal attempts. Note that the 'under' is 10-2 with the Spurs coming off consecutive 'over' results this season, resulting in an average total of 212.2 points. The Heat took the first meeting between these two teams this season by a 112-95 score on February 3rd and that's notable as the 'under' is 16-6 with the Spurs on the road seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, leading to an average total of 216.1 points. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
02-26-22 | South Dakota State v. UMKC +7.5 | Top | 86-75 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
Summit League Game of the Year. My selection is on Kansas City plus the points over South Dakota State at 8 pm et on Saturday. I'll grab all the points I can get with the home underdog in this matchup between two red hot Summit League teams. South Dakota State has of course been the class of the conference all season, going undefeated to this point at 17-0. That includes a 32-point rout of Kansas City back on December 20th. Kansas City enters this game on a serious roll, however, having won eight consecutive games ATS. The Roos have done a tremendous job of locking down the opposition here at home, allowing just 21 made field goals per game on only 51 attempts. That includes just 5-of-19 shooting from beyond the arc. South Dakota State obviously has the offense to test those numbers but also finds itself in a tough spot, playing on just one day of rest following a wild 106-102 road win at Oral Roberts on Thursday. While the Jackrabbits are certainly capable of hanging a crooked number on the scoreboard, I like the fact that the Roos come in on a heater as well, having shot better than 51% from the field in five of their last eight games and averaging just shy of 80 points per game on 48% shooting at home this season. Kansas City's recent success hasn't come out of nowhere as it is actually 29-15 ATS in its last 44 games against Summit League opposition. Take Kansas City (10*). | |||||||
02-26-22 | South Dakota v. Oral Roberts OVER 154.5 | 92-87 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between South Dakota and Oral Roberts at 8 pm et on Saturday. The first meeting between these two teams totalled 155 points and as a result we're looking at a higher posted total for this rematch (the previous meeting saw a closing total of 145.5). I'm not convinced enough of an adjustment has been made. There was really nothing special about that first matchup as far as the performance of the two offenses goes. In fact, South Dakota actually knocked down only four three-pointers in the game - three less than its season average. The two teams also made just 20 free throws combined, less than their combined per game season average of 26. South Dakota enters this game off three consecutive 'under' results. I simply don't see this game being played at the same relatively slow pace that we saw in any of those three games. Note that Oral Roberts comes in having knocked down a whopping 69 field goals over its last two games. But it is also affording the opposition a ton of scoring opportunities, allowing 60+ field goal attempts in five of its last six games with the 'over' cashing at a 4-2 clip over that stretch. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
02-26-22 | Lightning v. Predators +1.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Nashville +1.5 goals over Tampa Bay at 7:35 pm et on Saturday. The Preds have righted the ship by posting consecutive wins after losing four in a row. They'll be in tough trying to make it three wins in a row against a Lightning squad that has reeled off three consecutive wins itself, but I'm comfortable backing Nashville with an insurance goal as it hosts this 'Stadium Series' game on Saturday. Note that Tampa is just 21-24 and an even 3.1-3.1 in terms of scoring average when coming off six or seven wins in its last eight games over the last two seasons, as is the case here. The Bolts also check in an even 29-29 after scoring 3+ goals in three consecutive games over the same stretch, only managing to outscore opponents by 0.3 goals on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Preds are 15-7 after losing four or five of their last six contests over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 0.4 goals. Take Nashville +1.5 goals (6*). | |||||||
02-26-22 | Loyola-Chicago v. Northern Iowa OVER 137.5 | Top | 96-102 | Win | 100 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
Missouri Valley Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Loyola-Chicago and Northern Iowa at 6 pm et on Saturday. The opposition has been absolutely filling it up against Northern Iowa lately, knocking down 35. 26, 29 and 32 field goals in the Panthers last four games, leading to a 3-1 o/u record over that stretch. There's little reason to think Loyola-Chicago can't add to the Panthers defensive woes here, as it comes in off an 82-point explosion against Evansville and has scored 70+ points in four of its last five contests. The question here is whether Northern Iowa can contribute enough offensively to help this one 'over' the reasonably-priced total. I believe the Panthers can as they come into this one after scoring 72, 95 and 88 points over the course of a three-game winning streak. They scored only 58 points in the first meeting between these two teams this season (that game still got into the 140's) but shot just 40% from the field and got to the free throw line only six times in that game. In fact, we saw just six made free throws in that contest (the two teams combine to average 26 made free throws per game this season). With this total sitting in the 130's, I believe we have plenty of wiggle room to work with. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
02-26-22 | San Francisco -13 v. San Diego | Top | 78-62 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
CBB Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over San Diego at 5 pm et on Saturday. After hanging tough through the early stages of conference play, San Diego has 'let go of the rope' so to speak, dropping five of its last six games SU (0-5-1 ATS). Opponents have absolutely abused the Toreros defense of late, knocking down 30+ field goals in four of those last six games. Things certainly won't get any easier against a San Francisco squad that will be looking to get back on track after a tough loss against mighty Gonzaga two nights ago. While the Dons have been a little uneven of late, that's had more to do with a couple of tough matchups with the aforementioned Zags and St. Mary's than anything else. They've still managed to win by 16+ points in three of their last five contests. I fully expect to see San Francisco clamp down on the San Diego offense here, noting that it allows just 23 made field goals including only five per game from three-point range on the road this season. While the Toreros could elect to play a little faster than usual, that will only afford to the Dons more scoring opportunities, noting that they've put up 100+ points twice in their last five games. When these two teams last met in January, San Francisco led by 14 points at halftime before easing off the gas in the second half. I don't expect that same sort of story to unfold here as they look to 'get right' off Thursday's lopsided defeat. Take San Francisco (10*). | |||||||
02-26-22 | Northern Illinois +17 v. Buffalo | Top | 60-70 | Win | 100 | 6 h 54 m | Show |
MAC Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Northern Illinois plus the points over Buffalo at 2 pm et on Saturday. I love that we're catching a boatload of points in this quick rematch between these two MAC squads on Saturday afternoon in Buffalo. We won with the 'under' in this same matchup on Thursday as Northern Illinois at least held its own in a game that was reasonably competitive throughout (Buffalo eventually won by 11 points). The Huskies enter Saturday's game riding a five-game ATS winning streak but are still getting little respect from the oddsmakers. Buffalo, meanwhile, with its high-octane offense has become an overvalued commodity, dropping the cash in three consecutive games. While NIU is a poor 6-12 SU away from home this season, it has managed to post a solid 11-7 ATS mark. The Huskies have actually won outright as big underdogs in-conference at Kent State, Ball State and Akron with the latter two victories coming in the last two weeks. While the Huskies average only 22 made field goals per game including just six from beyond the arc on the road this season, they'll likely be afforded many more scoring opportunities than they're accustomed to here with Buffalo allowing opponents to get off 65 field goal attempts including 23 per game from three-point range here at home this season. Take Northern Illinois (10*). | |||||||
02-26-22 | Arminia Bielefeld +1.5 v. Bayer Leverkusen | 0-3 | Loss | -114 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arminia Bielefeld +1.5 goals over Bayer Leverkusen at 9:30 am et on Saturday. The Bielefeld bandwagon, while not all that full to begin with, was effectively cleared following a 2-0 away loss against Hoffenheim back on February 13th. We did see the German side rebound with a 1-0 blanking of Union Berlin last time out, however, and I believe it can give Leverkusen a good run on Saturday as well. Note that Leverkusen has now gone an incredible 13 matches without recording a clean sheet. In other words, there will be plenty of opportunity for Bielefeld to get on the board in this one. It has actually been first to score in four of its last five matches overall, not to mention the fact that it has found the back of the net in six of its last eight matches against Leverkusen. The 'away' side has actually taken all three points in five straight matches between these two including a 2-1 result in favor of Bielefeld on this field last March. While Leverkusen is comfortably inside the top-six in the Bundesliga table, Bielefeld is still fighting to avoid relegation, sitting just three points clear of 16th-place Augsburg. I expect Bielefeld to go all out to potentially salvage a point, if not more from this match. Take Arminia Bielefeld +1.5 goals (8*). | |||||||
02-25-22 | Golden Knights v. Coyotes OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
NHL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Vegas and Arizona at 9:35 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams are coming off 'under' results in their most recent game. In the case of the Coyotes, they're fresh off consecutive 'under' results. I expect a different story to unfold on Friday, however. Note that the Knights skated to a 7-1 rout of the Coyotes here in Glendale in their lone previous meeting this season. Vegas checks in averaging 3.3 goals per game on the road this season. While the Coyotes aren't lighting the lamp with a lot of consistency at home this season they have managed to score three goals or more in four of their last five games overall. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is a perfect 5-0 with Arizona playing at home off consecutive 'under' results this season with that situation producing an average total of 8.0 goals. The 'over' is also 12-3 with the Coyotes seeking revenge for a loss by 3+ goals against an opponent over the last two seasons, with an average total of 6.9 goals scored in that spot. The Knights, meanwhile, have posted a 14-5 o/u mark when coming off an 'under' result this season, with that situation producing an average total of 6.8 goals. While the Knights gave up just a single goal in their most recent game - a 4-1 win in San Jose on Sunday (we won with the 'under' in that game), they've still allowed 13 goals over their last four contests. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
02-25-22 | Mavs v. Jazz OVER 216.5 | Top | 109-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Utah at 9:10 pm et on Friday. While both of these teams have been trending to the 'under' recently I believe the extended All-Star break can serve as a 'catalyst for change' heading into Friday's showdown in Salt Lake City. While it's true the 'under' is 5-2 in Dallas' last seven games overall, it has also scored 103+ points in 10 of its last 11 games, only failing to reach the century mark in a tough back half of a two-game set against the Clippers (we noted that was a poor spot for Dallas and successfully backed Los Angeles in a 99-97 victory). The 'under' is 6-1 in Utah's last seven games. It has scored over 100 points in nine straight games, boosted by the recent returns of Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert. The Jazz have also given up 100+ points in nine of their last 11 games, only holding an undermanned Warriors squad and the lowly Magic under that scoring mark over that stretch. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 22-10 with Utah playing at home after winning five or six of their last seven games over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 217.4 points. Mavs road games have totalled an average of 221.7 points over the last three seasons. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
02-25-22 | Pelicans +7.5 v. Suns | Top | 117-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
NBA Non-Division Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Phoenix at 9:10 pm et on Friday. The Pelicans entered the break on the heels of consecutive losses against the Grizzlies and Mavericks. Things won't get any easier as they head to Phoenix to face the Suns on Friday. With that being said, I'll gladly grab the generous helping of points with New Orleans in this spot. Note that Phoenix is fresh off a blowout win in Oklahoma City last night. As I expected, we saw the Suns really force the issue offensively in that one, looking to erase any doubt of how they will perform in the absence of Chris Paul. Here, I think things might get a little tougher playing the second of back-to-backs against a Pelicans squad that can hold its own offensively, boosted by the pre-trade deadline acquisition of C.J. McCollum. Note that Phoenix checks in 3-12 ATS when playing at home after winning four or five of its last six games ATS this season, outscoring opponents by just 5.5 points on average in that spot (compared to 9.3 points overall at home this season). Additionally, when coming off an ATS cover as a double-digit favorite over the last two seasons, the Suns have only managed to outscore their next opponent by an average margin of 1.2 points. The Pelicans check in having been outscored by just 0.4 points on average when coming off consecutive losses this season, as is the case here (20-game sample size). Also note that the Pelicans have outscored opponents by 0.3 points on average when playing with double-revenge over the last two seasons, also the case here (41-game sample size). Take New Orleans (10*). | |||||||
02-25-22 | Appalachian State v. Arkansas State UNDER 133.5 | Top | 60-62 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
Sun Belt Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Appalachian State and Arkansas State at 8 pm et on Friday. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled only 115 points and while we're dealing with a small adjustment to the posted total in this one (the previous meeting saw a closing total of 134.5) I don't believe it will prove to be enough. Arkansas State enters this game off a five-point loss at home against Coastal Carolina as it performed poorly defensively, allowing the Chanticleers to eclipse the 70-point mark and shoot 50% from the field. Keep in mind, the Red Wolves allow just 62.7 points per game on an average of only 23 made field goals including just five from beyond the arc here at home this season. Appalachian State is fresh off consecutive wins and scored 78 points in a double-digit victory over Arkansas-Little Rock last time out. The Mountaineers knocked down 32 field goals in that contest - the first time they hit more than 27 field goals in a game since posting 33 back in mid-January against Coastal Carolina. The Mountaineers average only 65.1 ppg on the road this season where they're good for an average of 24 made field goals including seven from three-point range, not to mention only 14 trips per contest to the free throw line. I'm not anticipating much in the way of offensive fireworks in this one. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
02-25-22 | Texas-Arlington v. South Alabama UNDER 133 | 52-62 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Texas-Arlington and South Alabama at 8 pm et on Friday. While the first meeting between these two teams was played at a break-neck pace and ultimately got into the 170's, I don't expect anything of the sort in Friday's rematch. South Alabama is playing a completely different style of basketball now than it was back in that late-December meeting. The Jaguars have been slowing things down to a crawl and should be even more motivated to do so as they look to snap a two-game skid on Friday. They certainly don't want to get out and run with UTA, noting that it has had considerable success doing so lately, scoring 80+ points in recent wins over Louisiana-Lafayette and Arkansas-Little Rock. When opponents have elected to slow Arlington down, they've found success, noting that UTA has scored just 49 and 53 points in consecutive losses entering Friday's contest. South Alabama has allowed more than 21 made field goals just once in its last six games and gives up less than 58 points per game at home this season. The Jaguars figure to be able to dictate the tempo as considerable home favorites in this one. Take the under (7*). | |||||||
02-25-22 | Spurs v. Wizards OVER 223 | 157-153 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Antonio and Washington at 7:10 pm et on Friday. Despite a pre-trade deadline fire sale of sorts, the Spurs went into the All-Star break having scored 109+ points in four straight games. The problem is, they also allowed 104 points or more in 14 consecutive games prior to the break. Meanwhile, the Wizards come out of the break after scoring 100+ points in six straight games. Like the Spurs, they haven't done a great job of defending their own basket, giving up 113+ points in four of their last six contests, only avoiding that fate against the likes of the Pistons and Nets (without all of their stars). Note that the Spurs check in averaging 112.0 points per game when coming off an ATS loss over the last two seasons. Washington on the other hand has averaged 118.8 points per contest when coming off a double-digit win over the same time frame (20-game sample size). I expect to see both teams race up and down the floor with considerable success on Friday. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
02-25-22 | Rennes v. Montpellier UNDER 2.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first half 'under' between Montpellier and Stade Rennes at 3 pm et on Friday. I'm anticipating a cagey start between these two French sides on Friday with a lot on the line ahead of this clash at Stade de la Mosson. Stade Rennes currently holds down one of the coveted conference league qualifying top-five spots in the Ligue 1 table but by the slimmest of margins. It sits just two points clear of AS Monaco. Note that while today's opponent Montpellier sits in ninth position, that leaves it only three points behind Les Rennais, certainly ratcheting up the importance of this clash. Here, we'll note that Stade Rennes has allowed a grand total of just three first half goals in 12 'away' matches in Ligue 1 play this season. For its part, Montpellier has given up seven first half strikes in 13 Ligue 1 'home' contests. All signs would seemingly point to an early Stade Rennes goal in this contest given its penchant for achieving such not only recently, but in this particular series. However, giving me pause to that notion is the fact that Montpellier hasn't conceded a first half goal in any of its last four matches overall. Two early goals allowed put Montpellier virtually out of contention for the three points the last time these two squads met last November (that one ended 2-0 in favor of Les Rennais). The fact that the rematch will play out on its home turf should assist in keeping Montpellier level in this particular contest for considerably longer. Take the first half under (5*). | |||||||
02-25-22 | Norwich City v. Southampton OVER 2.5 | 0-2 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Southampton and Norwich City at 3 pm et on Friday. We missed with the 'over' in Southampton's most recent match as it could only find two goals in a blanking of Everton. Here, I think we see things open up a little more with Norwich City looking to pull off the stunner against a rolling Southampton side on Friday. We can be all but assured that Southampton will find the back of the goal in this contest, noting that it has done so in 11 straight matches across all competitions. However, it's also worth mentioning that both sides have scored in eight of Southampton's last nine matches overall. While Norwich City finds itself sitting at the bottom of the EPL table, five points back of safety from relegation, it has shown some promise in recent weeks and months. Despite its scoring problems overall this season it has actually managed to find the back of the net first in five of its last six contests. Unfortunately in this particular matchup, it has failed to strike first in five consecutive meetings, with four of those five matches going 'over' 2.5 total goals. There's no reason to raise our level of concern too high should this one get off to a slow start, noting that Norwich has incredibly conceded 27 of its 53 goals this season in the final 15 minutes (plus added time) of its matches. Meanwhile, Southampton has allowed 22 of its 37 goals in the second half. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
02-25-22 | Elche v. Levante UNDER 2.5 | 0-3 | Loss | -135 | 7 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Levante and Elche at 3 pm et on Friday. We've been involved in a few recent matches involving Levante and Elche, most recently suffering a tough loss fading Levante in a match were it struck very late to earn a 1-1 draw against Celta Vigo. Meanwhile, we won with the 'over' in Elche's most recent contest - a 2-1 win over Raya Vallecano one week ago. Here, I'm not anticipating much in terms of offensive fireworks. We've seen five of the last six meetings in this series total less than 2.5 goals and I'm anticipating more of the same. This has the makings of a rather uneventful affair for Elche, which currently sits in no man's land in 14th spot in the La Liga table, nine points clear from relegation but 10 points back of a coveted top-six place. As for Levante, despite its recent modest success, it is still in last place, nine points behind the safety of the 17th spot. It has managed to score just 13 goals in 12 home matches this season while Elche has the very same number of goals in one additional contest away from home. Having not recorded a clean sheet in any of its last four matches, Elche will be looking to tighten things up here and might just have the perfect opponent to do so against. Take the under (6*). | |||||||
02-25-22 | Stuttgart v. Hoffenheim UNDER 3 | 1-2 | Push | 0 | 7 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Hoffenheim and Stuttgart at 2:30 pm et on Friday. I expect both sides to take a rather cautious approach in this one. Hoffenheim holds down one of the coveted top-six spots in the table but is just two points clear of seventh-placed Koln. It certainly wants to take something, if not all three points, away from this very winnable clash on Friday. Noting, however, that it has conceded the first goal in four of its last five matches and hasn't posted a clean sheet in any of its last four meetings with Stuttgart, it will need to be careful not to get too complacent here. On a positive note, Stuttgart has managed only 27 goals in 23 Bundesliga matches this season. For its part it has gone winless in the last four meetings in this series and has been first to conceded in five of its last six contests overall. Having not recorded a clean sheet in any of those most recent six matches, we can be certain where it's concentration will lie in this particular contest. While we won with the 'over' in Hoffenheim's most recent match - a come-from-behind 2-1 win over Wolfsburg last weekend, I believe this particular total will prove too high. Take the under (6*). | |||||||
02-25-22 | Udinese v. AC Milan OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 12 m | Show |
Serie A Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between AC Milan and Udinese at 12:45 pm et on Friday. AC Milan is coming off a surprising 2-2 draw against Salernitana last weekend but should make amends here in what I believe will be a relatively high-scoring contest against Udinese. Udinese simply can't afford to 'park the bus' and hope for the best in an effort to take something away from this match. It sits only three points clear of the bottom-three relegation spots in the Serie A table. On a promising note, it has managed to find the back of the net in six consecutive matchups with AC Milan. In fact, Udinese has been first to score in four of the last five matches between these two sides. That said, the Serie A leading outfit, AC Milan, will be looking to extend its five-match undefeated streak and should have little difficulty doing so against a Udinese squad that has yielded 41 goals in 24 Serie A matches this season. Thanks to picking up only a point in what was an expected victory last time out, Milan still sits atop the Serie A table but only two points clear of both Inter Milan and Napoli, with Inter taking the pitch later today. While the last two meetings between Milan and Udinese have stayed 'under' 2.5 total goals, we've seen both teams find at least a goal in four straight matchups. With the underdog side desperate to earn at least a point and Milan determined to pick up all three, I believe we're well-positioned for goals on Friday. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
02-24-22 | Islanders v. Sharks +1.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 16 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Jose +1.5 goals over New York at 10:35 pm et on Thursday. We won backing the Sharks on the puck-line two nights ago in Anaheim as they ultimately fell in a shootout against the Ducks. San Jose is now riding a seven-game losing streak but we'll once again get behind it with an insurance goal as it returns home to host New York on Thursday. Here, we'll again note that the Sharks are 10-4 when playing at home after allowing 3+ goals in three consecutive games over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.4 goals on average in that spot. They're also 11-6 after giving up 4+ goals in consecutive games over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 0.2 goals in that situation. The last seven times the Sharks have played at home off six or more consecutive losses we've seen them average an impressive 4.5 goals per game while outscoring opponents by 0.4 goals on average. Meanwhile, the Islanders are a woeful 5-14 when seeking revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, averaging just 2.1 goals while getting outscored by 1.1 goals on average in that spot. When playing on the road off a road win by 3+ goals over the last two seasons, as is the case here, the Isles have averaged only 1.6 goals and have been outscored by an average margin of 0.5 goals. Keep in mind, New York is just 9-13 on the road this season where it has been outscored by 0.5 goals per game. Take San Jose +1.5 goals (6*). | |||||||
02-24-22 | Islanders v. Sharks UNDER 5.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -120 | 15 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and San Jose at 10:35 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams are coming off 'over' results in their most recent games but I expect a different story to unfold when they match up in San Jose on Thursday. The Isles skated to a 5-2 win over the expansion Kraken two nights ago. Keep in mind, the 'under' is 10-2 with New York coming off a game in which it scored 4+ goals this season, resulting in an average total of only 4.5 goals. Better still, the 'under' is a perfect 7-0 with the Isles playing on the road off a road win by 3+ goals over the last two seasons, leading to an average total of only 3.7 goals. Meanwhile, the Sharks have posted a 4-13 o/u record after giving up 3+ goals in consecutive games this season, which is the case here, resulting in an average total of 5.4 goals in that spot. Keep in mind the first meeting between these two teams this season totalled only three goals. The 'under' has cashed in 11 of the last 16 matchups in this series. Take the under (7*). | |||||||
02-24-22 | Flames v. Canucks UNDER 5.5 | 1-7 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Calgary and Vancouver at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. The Canucks enter this game off three consecutive 'over' results but I expect that streak to end here, noting that the most recent meeting between these two teams totalled just one goal back in late January (we won with the Flames in that game). Calgary has allowed two goals or less in eight straight games with the 'under' cashing in its last two contests. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a perfect 7-0 the last seven times the Flames have played on the road off six or more consecutive wins, as is the case here. The 'under' is 11-3 with the Canucks playing at home off a win by 2+ goals over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 5.2 goals scored in that spot. Better still, the 'under' is 9-2 with Vancouver seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent this season, leading to only 4.4 total goals on average in that situation. Keep in mind, while the Canucks have scored a whopping 14 goals over the course of their three-game winning streak, they average only 2.6 goals per game (and an average total of 5.2 goals) here at home this season while the Flames give up just 2.6 goals per contest on the road. Take the under (6*). | |||||||
02-24-22 | Bruins v. Seattle Kraken +1.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle +1.5 goals over Boston at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. I'll take a shot with the Kraken on the puck-line on Thursday as they look to get right on the heels of five consecutive losses. Boston will welcome Brad Marchand back from suspension for this game. The B's are coming off a 5-1 rout of the Avalanche in a matinee affair on Monday but now head out on the road where they're a modest 13-10, outscoring opponents by an average margin of only 0.4 goals on the season. Remember, these two teams just met in Boston back on February 1st in a game that could have gone either way with the B's skating to a 3-2 victory. Here, we'll note that Boston is just 22-24 after winning two of its last three games over the last two seasons and 15-17 when coming off a game in which it allowed one goal or less over the same stretch, outscored by an average margin of 0.1 goals in that particular spot. In 26 previous occasions when coming off a victory this season, the B's have allowed 3.3 goals per game and have been outscored by an average margin of 0.3 goals. This is a situation where the Kraken have got the juices flowing a bit this season, noting that they've averaged 3.3 goals per game and have been outscored by only 0.3 goals on average (compared to being outscored by 1.0 goal on average overall this season) when coming off a home loss by 3+ goals, as is the case here. Take Seattle +1.5 goals (5*). | |||||||
02-24-22 | Stars v. Predators UNDER 5.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Nashville at 8:35 pm et on Thursday. The Preds are coming off a wild, high-scoring 6-4 win in Florida two nights ago but I expect nothing of the sort as they host the Starts, who are fresh off a 3-2 overtime win over the Jets last night. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a perfect 6-0 with the Preds playing at home after scoring 6+ goals in their previous game over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of just 3.6 goals. In fact, the 'under' is 11-2 with Nashville returning home off a road win over the last three seasons, with that spot producing just 4.5 total goals on average. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 13-6 with the Stars coming off four or five wins in their last six games this season, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 5.0 goals. Finally, I'll note that each of the last four meetings between these two teams in Nashville have stayed 'under' the total. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
02-24-22 | Buffalo v. Northern Illinois UNDER 148.5 | 79-68 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Buffalo and Northern Illnois at 8 pm et on Thursday. Buffalo has been on a blistering scoring pace lately, scoring 80+ points in six consecutive games. I do think Northern Illinois has a shot at knocking the Bulls off balance a little bit here, noting that the Huskies have limited opponents to just 53 field goal attempts per game here at home this season. None of NIU's last four opponents have gotten off more than 54 field goal attempts but the problem is it has allowed its last two foes to shoot 52% and 59% from the field. The good news is, the last time the Huskies allowed consecutive opponents to shoot better than 50% they followed it up with a 64-58 win over Ball State in which they held the Cardinals to 35% shooting. Buffalo allowed 84 points against Miami-Ohio last time out, barely escaping with a two-point win. Note that the Bulls have given up just 64, 74, and 69 points in their last three conference games after giving up 80+ points in their previous game. NIU certainly isn't an imposing offensive threat here at home where it averages 25 made field goals per game including only six from beyond the arc, while getting to the free throw line 19 times and knocking down an average of 13 of those freebies. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
02-24-22 | Celtics v. Nets +8 | 129-106 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Brooklyn plus the points over Boston at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. While these two teams are at somewhat opposite ends of the spectrum given the current state of affairs for the Nets with Kevin Durant injured, Kyrie Irving unable to suit up in the state of New York and Ben Simmons still working his way back, I simply feel that the Celtics are being asked to lay too many points in this first game back out of the All-Star break. Here, we'll note that Boston is just 10-22 ATS when coming off four or five ATS wins over its last six games over the last two seasons, outscored by 1.8 points on average in that spot. That situation has come up 16 times previously this season, and the Celtics have been outscored by an average margin of 0.7 points. While the Nets are a woeful 4-12 ATS when coming off an ATS loss this season, they've actually managed to outscore opponents by 0.4 points on average in that situation. Note that they've outscored opponents by an average margin of 1.1 points on 40 previous occasions where they've come off four or five losses over their last six games over the last three seasons. Again, I simply feel the C's are laying a few too many in this spot. Take Brooklyn (8*). | |||||||
02-24-22 | Blue Jackets v. Panthers -1.5 | 6-3 | Loss | -150 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Florida -1.5 goals over Columbus at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Blue Jackets are in an extremely tough spot on Thursday night as they travel to Florida to face a Panthers squad that blew multiple leads in an eventual 6-4 home loss to the Predators two nights ago - their first loss in four games. The Jackets are off three straight wins, scoring an incredible 18 goals over that stretch. I question whether they can keep it up on Thursday, however, with their engine Zach Werenski (he averages 26 minutes per game and anchors the power play) sidelined. Keep in mind, goaltender Elvis Merzlikins has been placed on I.R. as well, leaving third-string goaltender J.F. Berube to man the net for a third straight game. He's performed admirably in his first two starts but now faces a Panthers squad that averages 4.7 goals per game on home ice this season. Here, the Panthers have gone 23-4, outscoring opponents by 1.9 goals per game. Note that Florida is an incredible 16-1 when playing consecutive home games this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 2.6 goals in that situation. Take Florida -1.5 goals (4*). | |||||||
02-24-22 | Cleveland State v. Detroit OVER 144 | Top | 67-74 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
Horizon League Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland State and Detroit at 7 pm et on Thursday. Cleveland State is on an incredible 'over' run right now, with seven of its last eight games finding their way 'over' the total with one 'push' mixed in. The Vikings have scored 85, 84, 75, 83, 98, 78 and 79 points over that stretch and I don't see the Detroit Titans doing much to slow them down here. I do think the Titans can stick around, however, and I'm certainly not alone with this pointspread sitting near a pk'em. The Titans play reasonably fast at home, and get off an average of 30 three-point attempts per game, knocking down 12 of them. If they play their cards right, they should also be afforded plenty of opportunities at the free throw line, with Cleveland State sending opponents to the charity stripe an average of 22 times per game on the road this season. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled just 142 points but that contest was played at a slower pace than I'm anticipating tonight, not to mention the fact that Detroit knocked down only 4-of-21 three-point attempts, a performance I'm certain it can and will improve on here. Note that the 'over' is a perfect 6-0 with Cleveland State coming off a double-digit victory over a conference opponent this season, leading to an average total of 167.2 points. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
02-24-22 | Borussia Dortmund v. Rangers OVER 3 | Top | 2-2 | Win | 100 | 17 h 28 m | Show |
Europa League Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Rangers and Borussia Dortmund at 3 pm et on Thursday. No Erling Haaland for Dortmund again for the second leg of this Europa League clash but I don't believe the away side will have any trouble finding the back of the net in a desperate attempt to stave off elimination on Thursday. We won with Rangers in their stunning 4-2 upset win one week ago. They'll obviously be under fire for much of this return match but I'm confident they can come up with some answers as well, helping this one 'over' the total. Note that five of Rangers' last seven matches have gone 'over' 2.5 total goals while each of Dortmund's last 10 contests have gone 'over' that number. Rangers shouldn't be short on confidence as they roll into this one undefeated in their last five matches and having struck first in eight of their last 10 contests. Dortmund is vulnerable at the back end, particularly in goal where keeper Gregor Kobel has struggled mightily in three of his last five matches. Meanwhile, Rangers striker Alfredo Morelos has found the back of the net four times in his last four contests. Expect plenty of fireworks in this intriguing Thursday affair. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
02-24-22 | Sheriff +1.25 v. Sporting Braga | 0-2 | Loss | -112 | 17 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sheriff Tiraspol +1 goal over Sporting Braga at 3 pm et on Thursday. Sheriff took the first leg of this Europa League clash in stunning 2-0 fashion. The common line of thinking is that Sporting Braga will answer with a victory of its own on its home turf on Thursday. I'm not so easily convinced, however. Sheriff is undefeated in its last five matches while Braga checks in having conceded the first goal in five of its last seven contests. I feel that Braga is vulnerable from midfield back while Sheriff is brimming with confidence starting with Adama Traore up front all the way to keeper Giorgos Athanasiadis, who posted a clean sheet against Braga in the first leg. Expect Braga to face an uphill battle even on its home turf on Thursday. Take Sheriff Tiraspol (7*). | |||||||
02-24-22 | Zenit Petersburg v. Betis OVER 2.5 | 0-0 | Loss | -135 | 17 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Real Betis and Zenit St. Petersburg at 3 pm et on Thursday. The first leg of this match resulted in a 3-2 victory for Real Betis. It will look to put the matchup to bed with another victory (or draw) on Thursday but I'm not convinced it will come easy. Note that Real Betis has now gone five matches without posting a clean sheet so it's likely we'll see St. Petersburg apply some pressure throughout this one. For its part, Zenit has gone three matches without recording a clean sheet and has also seen five of its last seven contests go 'over' 2.5 goals. Better still, eight of Real Betis' last nine matches have gone 'over' 2.5 total goals. There's certainly some weakness at the back end for Zenit and Real Betis is more than capable of taking advantage, just as we saw when it struck three times in the first leg. With that being said, I don't believe Real Betis boasts an airtight back end either, with keeper Rui Silva proving particularly vulnerable of late. Take the over (9*). | |||||||
02-24-22 | Wolverhampton Wanderers v. Arsenal UNDER 2.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -140 | 17 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arsenal and Wolverhampton at 2:45 pm et on Thursday. I expect a cagey affair between these two squads that are separated by just two points in the EPL table and well within striking distance of the coveted top-five placement. Arsenal checks in undefeated in its last three matches and has also seen five of its last six contests stay 'under' 2.5 total goals. The Gunners will need to be cautious here as Wolverhampton has opened the scoring in six of its last eight contests. Wolverhampton has failed to post a clean sheet in any of its last 15 matches against Arsenal but we are talking about a different club this season. Wolves have allowed only 18 goals in 24 EPL matches. One of those goals came at the hands of the Gunners just two weeks ago in a 1-0 defeat. This has all the makings of a low-scoring affair. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
02-23-22 | Cincinnati v. UCF UNDER 141.5 | Top | 61-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
AAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and UCF at 9 pm et on Wednesday. Cincinnati has seen the 'over' cash in six straight games entering Wednesday's matchup with the Golden Knights in Orlando. The Bearcats have scored 70+ points in five straight games but clearly what they're doing right now isn't working as they've lost five of their last eight contests, going 2-6 ATS over that stretch. I do think that UCF will be able to slow the Bearcats down, noting that the Knights allow an average of only 23 made field goals and 14 free throw attempts per game here at home this season. The 'under' has cashed in UCF's last two games and it checks in having given up fewer than 70 points in five of its last seven contests. Only one of the two games where the Knights did allow 70 or more points over that stretch found its way 'over' the total. Interestingly, Cincinnati has been at its absolute best defensively on the road this season, giving up only 23 made field goals including just three made threes per game away from home. With that being said, it has had an issue with sending opponents to the charity stripe, yielding 23 free throw attempts per game on the road. Can the Knights exploit that? I'm not so sure. UCF averages only 17 free throw attempts per contest overall and just 14 per game at home. This will be the first matchup between these two teams this season and it's worth noting that we're working with a higher posted total than we saw in either of last season's two meetings. Those two games went 'over' the total but only one eclipsed the number we're working with here. That being said, seven of the last eight meetings between these two quads here in Orlando have stayed 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
02-23-22 | Oilers v. Lightning UNDER 6.5 | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Edmonton and Tampa Bay at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. We missed with the 'under' in Edmonton's 7-3 home loss to the Wild on Sunday but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as the Oilers head to the Sunshine State to open an eastern road swing against the Lightning. Sunday's lopsided loss snapped a five-game winning streak for the Oilers. During that winning streak, they allowed a grand total of only eight goals. I'm willing to chalk up Sunday's seven goals allowed against Minnesota as a short-term anomaly, even if I'm not all that high on Edmonton's long-term defensive prospects. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 14-5 with the Oilers playing on the road off a home loss by 2+ goals over the last two seasons with that spot producing an average total of only 5.1 goals. The 'under' is also 11-2 with Edmonton following a game where eight or more total goals were scored this season, resulting in an average total of only 5.5 goals. The Lightning, meanwhile, come into this one hot off consecutive road wins, scoring a whopping 10 goals in the process. Keep in mind, those performances came against the Coyotes and Devils - two of the league's weakest teams. The 'under' has gone 14-10 in Lightning home games this season, with an average total of just 5.6 goals scored. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 12-5 with the Lightning playing at home after winning two of their last three games this season, resulting in an average total of just 5.2 goals. Finally, I'll note that nine of the last 16 meetings between these two teams in Tampa have stayed 'under' the total. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
02-23-22 | TCU v. Texas UNDER 126.5 | 66-75 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between TCU and Texas at 7 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the 'under' in Texas' most recent game - a 61-55 loss at home against Texas Tech on Saturday. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as the Longhorns look to bounce back against another in-state rival in TCU. As I noted in Saturday's analysis, Texas has done an incredible job playing defense at home this season, allowing only 19 made field goals including only five made threes per game, also sending opponents to the free throw line just 15 times per contest. TCU doesn't figure to be a team that will easily break down the Longhorns defense. When these two teams met back on January 25th at TCU, the Horned Frogs scored only 50 points, knocking down just 18 field goals including only two shots from beyond the arc. Were it not for 21 trips to the free throw line, that could have been a truly embarrassing offensive performance (it was already bad enough considering TCU lost by a score of 73-50). Texas actually got off an uncharacteristically-high 65 field goal attempts in that contest, helping boost their scoring output. Consider the Longhorns average just 55 FG attempts per game, 54 per contest here at home. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 8-2 with Texas coming off an ATS loss this season, resulting in an average total of only 116.2 points. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
02-23-22 | Ajax Amsterdam v. Benfica OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-2 | Win | 100 | 20 h 56 m | Show |
Champions League Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Benfica and Ajax at 3 pm et on Wednesday. We saw two relatively low-scoring Champions League matches yesterday with both resulting in just two total goals. I expect nothing of the sort in this Round of 16 clash on Wednesday. Benfica knows that goals will be hard to come by when the scene shifts to Amsterdam for the second leg of this match next month. With that in mind, it also realizes that if it wants to have any hope of advancing past Dutch power Ajax, it will need to come up with a tremendous showing in Lisbon on Wednesday. Benfica does enter this match undefeated over its last three contests, also having been first to score in five of its last seven matches overall. Of concern, though, is the fact that it has gone six consecutive matches without posting a clean sheet and will now have to deal with a relentless and powerful Ajax attack that rolls into this contest on the heels of 10 consecutive victories. Of course, the level of competition Ajax has faced does have to be factored in. I think that has buoyed the Dutch squad's impressive goal-prevention ability more than anything else though. Ajax hasn't given up a single goal in its last four matches but I do expect it to concede at least one here. Note that in spite of that air tight defense of late, Ajax has still seen seven of its last eight contests find their way 'over' 2.5 goals. Benfica is certainly accustomed to getting involved in back-and-forth affairs, with each of its last six matches featuring goals from both sides. These two squads have actually met three times since 2014 with Benfica failing to post a clean sheet in any of those matches. It also only managed to score once across those three tilts, but it could be argued that it boasts a great deal more firepower now than it did the last time they met back in 2018. Frighteningly for the Portuguese side, so does Ajax. I'm anticipating plenty of fireworks in this one. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
02-23-22 | Cardiff City +0.5 v. Huddersfield Town | 1-2 | Loss | -150 | 19 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cardiff City +0.5 goals over Huddersfield Town at 2:45 pm et on Wednesday. To say that Cardiff City has owned this series would be an understatement. With its 2-1 victory in the last meeting back in November, Cardiff has now gone undefeated in the last 16 matches between these two sides. While it will be facing an uphill battle on Wednesday given that Huddersfield has gone undefeated over its last 15 matches overall, I believe it will be up for the challenge. All of the pressure lies on Huddersfield right now, as it sits just three points clear of seventh-place Sheffield United, currently holding down the second last spot in the Promotion Playoffs. Even a point would certainly go a long way toward improving its chances of locking up one of those coveted six spots. As for Cardiff City, it sits well back in 19th position but can breathe easy at the moment as it is a whopping 15 points clear of the first Relegation place, held down by Derby at the moment. Cardiff has been playing like a team with little to lose lately, securing 13 of a possible 18 points in its last six Championship matches. Interestingly, when factoring in only 'away' matches, Cardiff checks in a respectable 12th in the Championship. Meanwhile, Huddersfield drops to 10th when factoring in only 'home' affairs. Take Cardiff City +0.5 goals (7*). | |||||||
02-22-22 | Sharks +1.5 v. Ducks | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Jose +1.5 goals over Anaheim at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Sharks are reeling right now, losers of six games in a row. With that being said, I do think they're well-positioned to at the very least take the Ducks down to the wire on Tuesday night in Anaheim. Note that while San Jose has lost six consecutive games, only two of those losses came by 2+ goals. The Sharks check in 5-1 this season when playing on the road after allowing 3+ goals in consecutive games this season, outscoring opponents by an impressive average margin of 1.7 goals, allowing only 1.3 goals on average in that spot. They're also a solid 11-5 when coming off consecutive games in which they allowed 4+ goals over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.2 goals on average in that situation. While San Jose checks in 11-13 on the road this season, it has been outscored by an average margin of only 0.9 goals so the difference between a losing and winning road record isn't all that severe. The Ducks are coming off a 7-4 win in Vancouver on Saturday but that was their first victory in their last five contests. They've averaged just 2.5 goals per game and have been outscored by 0.1 goals on average when coming off a win by 3+ goals against a division opponent, working with a massive 95-game sample size. The Sharks are 6-5 in their last 11 meetings with the Ducks, winning four of their last six games here in Anaheim. Take San Jose +1.5 goals (5*). | |||||||
02-22-22 | Sharks v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Jose and Anaheim at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'under' in the Sharks most recent game - a 4-1 home loss to the Golden Knights on Sunday. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Tuesday as they make the short trip to Anaheim to face the Ducks. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a perfect 6-0 with the Sharks coming off three consecutive games in which they allowed 3+ goals this season, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 4.2 goals. The 'under' is also a perfect 5-0 with the Sharks playing on the road off consecutive losses this season, leading to an average total of 5.0 goals. The Ducks exploded for seven goals in their most recent game but prior to that they had been held to three goals or less in five consecutive games. They've sagged defensively of late, yielding a whopping 17 goals over their last three games. A return home should help, however, noting that Anaheim allows only 2.5 goals per game on home ice this season, while the Sharks average 2.8 goals per contest on the road. Take the under (6*). | |||||||
02-22-22 | Kansas State +12.5 v. Kansas | Top | 83-102 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
My selection is on Kansas State plus the points over Kansas at 9 pm et on Tuesday. I'll grab the generous helping of points with the underdog Wildcats as they head to Allen Fieldhouse to challenge the rival Jayhawks on Tuesday night. Kansas State enters this game off three consecutive ATS wins but dropped a three-point decision at Oklahoma on Saturday, just staying inside the pointspread in the SU defeat. The Wildcats have shot sub-40% from the field in their last two games - one game shy of their longest such streak of the season. Note that they've gone 4-1 SU and ATS when coming off consecutive games shooting below 40% from the field this season. They allowed Oklahoma to shoot 51.9% from the field in Saturday's narrow loss. That's happened only twice previously this season and in their next game they've allowed opponents to shoot just 40-for-109 (36.7%) from the field. I realize they're facing a difficult challenge here against an elite Kansas squad. However, it is worth noting that the Jayhawks come into this game having scored 70+ points in six consecutive games. Prior to that stretch, Kansas had scored 70+ points in just four of its first seven Big 12 contests this season. Obviously, it would be an uphill battle for the Jayhawks to cover a pointspread as large as the one we're looking at tonight without scoring 70+ points. It's also notable that the Jayhawks have held three straight opponents to fewer than 70 points. They did so just once previously in Big 12 play this season and in their next game posted a close 78-75 win over tonight's opponent, Kansas State. The difference in that game was a 30-18 (21-11 made) free throw disparity in favor of the Jayhawks. I do have confidence that Kansas State can narrow that gap in tonight's game, while also keeping the game's pace in check, much like it did in the first meeting this season, helping ultimately keep the final score inside the number. Here, we'll note that the Jayhawks are 0-6 ATS after giving up 65 points or less in consecutive games this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by just 3.7 points on average in that spot. Take Kansas State (7*). | |||||||
02-22-22 | Maple Leafs v. Blue Jackets UNDER 6.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Columbus at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. We missed with the 'under' in Columbus' most recent game - a 7-3 victory over the lowly Sabres on Sunday. I won't hesitate to go back to the well here, however, as the Blue Jackets face a much tougher challenge at home against a Maple Leafs squad coming off consecutive losses, including an ugly 5-2 defeat in Montreal last night. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 10-2 with the Leafs playing on the road off a road loss by 3+ goals over the last three seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of only 5.1 goals in that spot. As for the Jackets, they've posted a 3-11 o/u record after winning six or seven of their last eight games over the last three seasons, which is also the situation here tonight, leading to an average total of only 4.3 goals scored. In the longer-term picture, the 'under' is 55-34 with Columbus playing at home after scoring 5+ goals in their previous game. This is certainly a contrarian play given the two teams' recent form, however it is worth noting that the 'under' is 5-3 in the last eight meetings in this series. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
02-22-22 | Wild -240 v. Senators | 3-4 | Loss | -240 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota over Ottawa at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Senators have faced an extremely tough schedule in recent weeks, largely due to a number of Covid-related postponements earlier in the season. Here, they'll play on one day of rest once again, hosting a Wild squad that just 'got right' with a blowout win in Edmonton on Sunday. In this spot, we'll note that Minnesota has gone 23-10 when coming off two losses in its last three games over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.7 goals on average. Better still, the Wild are 22-8 after giving up 3+ goals in three straight games over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.8 goals on average in that situation. As for the Sens, they've averaged just 2.0 goals per game and have been outscored by an average margin of 1.4 goals when playing at home off a one-goal loss over the last two seasons (22-game sample size), as is the case here. While Ottawa averages only 2.5 goals per game at home this season, the Wild check in averaging 3.4 goals per contest on the road and better still, averaging 4.0 goals per game when coming off a win. Take Minnesota (5*). | |||||||
02-22-22 | Blues v. Flyers UNDER 6 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 102 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
NHL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. Despite a scoreless first period, the Flyers ultimately posted another 'over' result yesterday afternoon as they fell by a 4-3 score in overtime against Carolina. The 'over' has now cashed in their last five games overall. The Blues are coming off a high-scoring game of their own, as they skated to a 6-3 win in Toronto on Saturday. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 53-36 with the Blues coming off an 'over' result over the last three seasons, resulting in an average total of 5.6 goals. When playing on the road after winning two of their last three games, the Blues have posted a 16-26 o/u mark over the last two seasons, also resulting in an average total of 5.6 goals in that situation. Better still, we'll note that St. Louis has seen the 'under' go 26-14 after scoring 5+ goals in its previous contest over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of only 5.4 goals. As for the Flyers, the 'under' has gone 10-2 when they play at home off three consecutive games that totalled 7+ goals, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 4.8 goals. We've seen eight of the last 16 meetings between these two teams in Philadelphia stay 'under' the total with those games rounding off to an average total of 5.0 goals. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
02-22-22 | Lille OSC +1.5 v. Chelsea | 0-2 | Loss | -108 | 18 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Lille +1.5 goals over Chelsea at 3 pm et on Tuesday. Lille goes from being a massive favorite (and falling short in a 0-0 draw) against Ligue 1 opponent Metz last Friday to a significant underdog against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge in Champions League action on Tuesday. I'll gladly grab the insurance goal with the French side as it looks to play the role of David against Goliath. Maybe that's a bit too strong of an analogy. After all, there are really no 'Davids' left at this stage of the Champions League. Chelsea enters this match riding a five-match winning streak and undefeated in its last six. With that being said, I wouldn't consider it to be in peak form, noting that it's last four matches have come against relatively weak opposition, including an uninspiring 1-0 away win at Crystal Palace on Saturday. I suspect we'll see Lille sell out to defend for as long as it can in this one, noting that Chelsea has had a tendency to strike first and control its matches, scoring the first goal in five of its last six contests. Lille has conceded only four goals through six Champions League matches - an identical mark to that of Chelsea. The Blues have had the better scoring touch with 13 goals compared to Lille's seven, but I'm not going to count out the French outfit led by Canadian standout Jonathan David. I look for Lille to relish the underdog role on Tuesday. Take Lille +1.5 goals (8*). | |||||||
02-21-22 | Seattle Kraken v. Canucks UNDER 5.5 | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and Vancouver at 10:05 pm et on Monday. The Kraken are looking to salvage something from their western Canadian road trip after dropping consecutive games in Winnipeg and Calgary. Credit Seattle for holding a red hot Flames squad (no pun intended) to just a single goal on Saturday but it still fell short thanks to an offense that has really struggled away from home this season, averaging just 2.5 goals per contest. The Canucks suffered an ugly 7-4 home loss against the Ducks on Saturday. That high-scoring result was the exception rather than the rule here at home this season, where the Canucks have seen their games total an average of only 5.2 goals. Here, we'll note that Vancouver has seen the 'under' cash at an 8-2 clip when playing at home off a loss this season, resulting in an average total of 5.0 goals. The 'under' is 15-6 with the Canucks playing at home after scoring 3+ goals in consecutive games over the last two seasons, leading to an average total of only 5.4 goals. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
02-21-22 | Eastern Illinois v. SIU-Edwardsville UNDER 128 | 52-66 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Eastern Illinois and SIU-Edwardsville at 8 pm et on Monday. Eastern Illinois has been one of the best 'under' bets in the country this season, with 19 of its 26 lined games staying 'under' the total. Few teams play at a slower pace, as the Panthers rank 296th in the country in adjusted tempo (according to KenPom). To compound matters, they rank a dreadful 357th in adjusted offensive efficiency. SIU-Edwardsville plays at a faster pace but doesn't fare much better offensively, ranking 327th in adjusted offensive efficiency. Both teams have had a penchant for turning the basketball over. In fact, Edwardsville turned it over 19 times in the first meeting between these two teams this season yet Eastern Illinois still only managed to score 53 points despite all of those extra possessions. On the road, we've seen the Panthers average just 19 made field goals including an average of only six from beyond the arc. That's not to mention only eight made free throws per road game. In a game where SIU-Edwardsville figures to control proceedings and perhaps take the air out of the basketball with a sizable lead in the second half, I'm comfortable playing the 'under', even at a lower number than we saw in the first meeting this season (that game totalled only 119 points). Take the under (7*). | |||||||
02-21-22 | Liberty v. Central Arkansas OVER 150.5 | Top | 85-66 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
CBB Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Liberty and Central Arkansas at 8 pm et on Monday. Central Arkansas checks into this game off three consecutive 'under' results but remains one of the fastest-paced teams in the entire country, ranking 13th in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. A look at its home conference games shows totals of 181, 177, 167, 188, 154, 148 and 159 points. Liberty is coming off a tougher-than-expected 88-82 win over Stetson on Saturday. The Flames don't play at nearly the same break-neck pace as Central Arkansas but as we saw on Saturday, they're certainly capable of hanging a crooked number on the scoreboard. That's thanks in large part to the fact that they knock down 11 three-pointers per game with not much of a drop-off in production at all on the road this season. Central Arkansas will certainly afford Liberty plenty of opportunities in this contest, noting that it yields 24 three-point attempts and 20 trips to the free throw line at home this season. It's worth noting that it has held three straight opponents to fewer than 80 points as it marks the first time that has happened all season. Don't count on the Bears accomplishing that feat for a fourth consecutive game on Monday. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
02-21-22 | Levante v. Celta de Vigo -150 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -150 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
La Liga Game of the Month. My selection is on Celta Vigo over Levante at 3 pm et on Monday. While Celta sits in 10th place in La Liga the argument can be made that it belongs higher, noting that it has posted a better goal differential than two of the squads it looks up at in the table in Osasuna and Real Sociedad. It can leapfrog Osasuna with a victory on Monday against bottom-feeding Levante and that's precisely how I see this one playing out. Levante stunned Atletico Madrid 1-0 in its last match, snapping a three-match losing streak. Here, it will challenge a Celta squad that has gone undefeated in its last four matches but will be looking to rebound from a disappointing 0-0 draw against Cadiz. Celta is playing exactly how it wants right now, with four of its last five matches of the low-scoring variety, totalling 2.5 goals or less. Note that Celta enters today's match having conceded just 25 goals in 24 matches in La Liga this season. Compare that with today's opponent, Levante, which has conceded a whopping 50 times in the same number of matches. Speaking of conceding, Levante has conceded in 14 consecutive matches in this particular series. While Levante did post a pair of wins over Celta back in 2019-20, it was aided by the latter having a man sent off in both contests. Since then, we've seen Levante strike only once in its last three matches in this series, going 0-1-2 while being outscored by a 5-1 margin. Take Celta Vigo (10*). | |||||||
02-21-22 | Napoli v. Cagliari UNDER 2.5 | 1-1 | Win | 120 | 6 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first half 'under' between Cagliari and Napoli at 1 pm et on Monday. We won with Napoli +0.5 goal in its most recent match - a Europa League clash against Barcelona last Thursday. We saw Napoli execute its gameplan to perfection in that match, grabbing a first half lead and sitting on it as long as it could, ultimately coming away with a draw on the strength of that critical 'away goal'. Now it's back to Serie A action against one of the worst teams of the bunch in Cagliari. Currently sitting in 18th position, one point back of Venezia, Cagliari is flirting with relegation right now. It could desperately use a point from this match but to earn that it will need to tighten things up as should it fall behind, it's highly unlikely to level proceedings, noting that Napoli has allowed a grand total of just 17 goals in 25 Serie A contests this season. With that being said, I'm anticipating a rather cagey start to this affair. Note that Napoli enters this match having seen eight of its last 10 matches stay 'under' 2.5 goals. Cagliari has gone 'under' that total in four of its last five contests. Both teams should come in confident with Cagliari edging closer to safety thanks to going undefeated over its last there matches and Napoli avoiding defeat for five consecutive games. If you can find the first half 'under' 1.5 goals that's how I'm playing this one (laying some considerable juice to do so) but 1.0 is playable as well. Take the first half under (6*). | |||||||
02-20-22 | Golden Knights v. Sharks UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 115 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
NHL Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Vegas and San Jose at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams are coming off relatively high-scoring 'over' results last time out but I look for a different story to unfold when they match up on Sunday in San Jose. The Golden Knights blew an early lead in an eventual 4-3 overtime loss against the Kings on Friday. They continue to play on without a number of key contributors, including Mark Stone and Robin Lehner, but did recently welcome Jack Eichel back from injury. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 29-16 with Vegas playing on the road after a game that totalled 7+ goals over the last three seasons, resulting in an average total of just 5.3 goals. The Knights have also seen the 'under' go 13-4 when coming off an overtime loss over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of only 5.0 goals. As for the Sharks, they're coming off an OT loss of their own against the Canucks. The 'under' is a terrific 31-11 after allowing 5+ goals in their previous game over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of 5.7 goals. The 'under' is also 12-3 after San Jose gives up 3+ goals in consecutive games this season with an average total of 5.4 goals scored in that spot. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
02-20-22 | Wild v. Oilers UNDER 6.5 | 7-3 | Loss | -101 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Edmonton at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. We're being given a very generous total to work with for this Sunday night affair between two teams seemingly headed in opposite directions. The Wild are a terrific offensive team but they're not scoring with any consistency right now, having potted three goals or less in four of their last five games. On a positive note, they have allowed just 2.1 goals per game when playing on the road off consecutive losses over the last two seasons with that situation leading to an average total of only 5.4 goals. The Oilers have given up a grand total of only eight goals over the course of their five-game winning streak. Note that they have seen the 'under' go 14-6 when playing at home off a road victory by 2+ goals over the last two seasons, as is the case here following yesterday's 4-2 win in Winnipeg, resulting in an average total of only 5.8 goals. The first meeting between these two teams this season reached just five total goals. The 'under' has cashed in 26 of the last 42 matchups between them here in Edmonton, averaging just 5.0 total goals per contest. Take the under (7*). | |||||||
02-20-22 | Team Durant v. Team LeBron OVER 320.5 | 160-163 | Win | 100 | 58 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Team Lebron and Team Durant at 8 pm et on Sunday. I would recommend jumping on this play early as the total is only going to rise leading up to tipoff on Sunday. Last year's All-Star Game actually totalled only 320 points. In fact, since the format changed to Team Lebron vs. Team 'insert name here', we've only seen one of four games go 'over' the total we're working with this year. I believe we're going to see a throwback to the games of 2016 and 2017, when we saw point totals up around 370 points. The talent on these two rosters is incredible (I don't need to tell you that). I also think we have two squads more than willing to push the pace at every opportunity. Team Lebron is favored for a reason. The mix of scorers and distributors should make for some very appealing offensive basketball. With that being said, you can be sure guys like Ja Morant, Trae Young and Devin Booker will ball out on the other side and should be able to keep within arm's reach all night long. I have this one soaring 'over' the total - always nice to make a little money if we're going to sit down and watch a glorified exhibition game in the middle of February. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
02-20-22 | Stars v. Coyotes +1.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
NHL Central Division Puck-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on Arizona +1.5 goals over Dallas at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. The Coyotes fell again last night, blowing a 3-1 lead in an eventual 5-3 home loss to the Kings. I do think they draw the Stars in a favorable spot on Sunday, however, and will go back to the well with the 'Yotes with an insurance goal here. Note that the Stars, while coming off a 1-0 shootout win in Chicago on Friday, are still just 10-13 on the road this season where they average only 2.4 goals per game and have been outscored by an average margin of 0.8 goals per contest. Dallas checks in a woeful 1-8 when playing on the road after allowing two goals or less in consecutive games over the last two seasons, outscored by a whopping 2.2 goals on average in that spot. As for the Coyotes, they're 9-4 when coming off consecutive home losses over the last two seasons, allowing just 2.4 goals per game and outscoring opponents by 0.4 goals on average in that situation. They've allowed only 2.1 goals per game, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.1 goals when playing at home after giving up 4+ goals in consecutive games over the last two seasons, as is the case here (19-game sample size). Dallas took the most recent meeting between these two teams by a 4-1 score back in December. That was in Dallas, however. The last time they met here in Arizona in November, the Stars skated to a narrow 3-2 victory. Take Arizona +1.5 goals (10*). | |||||||
02-20-22 | Sabres v. Blue Jackets UNDER 6.5 | 3-7 | Loss | -106 | 6 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Buffalo and Columbus at 6:05 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring games but I'll go the other way and back the 'under' as they square off in Columbus on Sunday. Note that the Sabres average just 2.5 goals per game with an average total of 6.0 goals scored when they play on the road this season. The 'under' is a perfect 6-0 when Buffalo plays on the road in the second half of a back-to-back this season, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of only 4.5 goals. As for the Blue Jackets, they've seen the 'under' go 11-2 when coming off six or seven wins in their eight games over the last three seasons, which is the case here, leading to an average total of only 3.8 goals. Additionally, the 'under' is 12-4 when the Jackets return home following a road game where both teams scored 3+ goals, which is also the situation here following Thursday's 7-4 win in Chicago, with an average total of just 4.3 goals in that spot. Take the under (5*). | |||||||
02-20-22 | Rangers -185 v. Senators | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
NHL Non-Division Game of the Week. My selection is on New York over Ottawa at 5:05 pm et on Sunday. We won fading the Senators last night, although it was a little closer than we would have liked as the Bruins pulled out a 3-2 overtime win. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Sunday, this time supporting the Rangers, who are off a home shootout loss against the Red Wings. After today's game, New York will enjoy three days off before taking the ice again on Thursday against Washington. Here, we'll note that the Blueshirts have allowed just 2.2 goals per game and outscored the opposition by 0.7 goals on average when playing on the road off a home loss over the last two seasons, as is the case here (18-game sample size). Meanwhile, the Sens average a woeful 1.3 goals per game and have been outscored by an average margin of 1.7 goals when playing at home off an overtime loss over the last two seasons (nine-game sample size). Ottawa has dealt with a tough schedule recently due to the NHL trying to fit all of its games in following a slew of cancellations earlier in the season. That's notable as the Sens have given up 3.7 goals per game, outscored by 1.4 goals on average, when playing at home in a 6-in-10 or worse situation over the last two seasons. Take New York (10*). | |||||||
02-20-22 | RB Leipzig v. Hertha Berlin +1 | 6-1 | Loss | -101 | 16 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on Hertha Berlin +1.0 goal over RB Leipzig at 1:30 pm et on Sunday. Leipzig is on the verge of moving into the top-six in the Bundesliga table but I believe it will be in tough on Sunday against Hertha Berlin. Note that when factoring in only 'away' matches, Leipzig sits a poor 14th in the table with a -4 goal differential. Hertha Berlin enters Sunday's contest having gone winless in its last six matches but should benefit from facing a rather forgiving Leipzig side that has yielded goals in three straight contests. I can't help but feel we're going to see a letdown from Leipzig on Sunday as it comes off of a three-game stretch that saw it face Bayern Munich, FC Koln and finally Real Sociedad in Europa League action. All three matches were hard-fought affairs with Leipzig going 1-1-1. Hertha Berlin hasn't been able to find its footing lately but off a 2-1 away loss against last-place Furth, I look for it to bring its best on Sunday. Take Hertha Berlin +1.0 goal (8*). | |||||||
02-20-22 | Providence -3 v. Butler | 71-70 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Providence minus the points over Butler at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Big East picture has certainly crystallized with teams like Providence, Villanova and UConn at the top and Butler, DePaul and Georgetown pulling up the rear. With Providence coming off a tough home loss to Villanova, I look for the Friars to take advantage of this bounce-back matchup against Butler on Sunday. The Friars already took the first meeting between these two teams this season but failed to cover the spread. Here, we're working with a more manageable spread, despite the fact that Butler has been an awful bet at home this season, going 4-9 ATS. While the Bulldogs are capable of staging an upset here at home, I'm confident the Friars will have their guard up off the loss to 'Nova - just their third defeat of the season. Take Providence (8*). | |||||||
02-20-22 | Mallorca v. Betis -167 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Real Betis over Mallorca at 12:30 pm et on Sunday. We missed fading Mallorca in its most recent match - a surprising 3-2 win over Athletic Bilbao earlier this week. That result was even more stunning as Mallorca blew a 2-0 second half lead before securing victory in a very late strike. Here, I'm not convinced it will be so fortunate. Real Betis is quietly among the class of La Liga this season, entering Sunday's action sitting third in the table. It enters Sunday's contest on the heels of three straight victories and should feast against one of La Liga's weakest defensive sides. Note that Mallorca has conceded at least a goal in nine consecutive matches - conceding first in seven of those. Betis has more than doubled Mallorca in terms of goal production in La Liga this season with 45 compared to 22. I'm confident it will be able to put this match away in due time, noting that 25 of Mallorca's 36 goals conceded have come in the second half. Take Real Betis (6*). | |||||||
02-20-22 | Leicester v. Wolverhampton Wanderers UNDER 2.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -135 | 14 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Wolverhampton and Leicester City at 11:30 am et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in Leicester City's most recent EPL match but I won't hesitate to go the other way as it faces Wolverhampton on Sunday. Note that Leicester has now gone seven consecutive matches without posting a clean sheet. It will need to be particularly careful on Sunday, noting that Wolves have scored the first goal in five of their last seven contests. It's certainly worth noting, however, that Leicester has gone five straight matches in this series without allowing a goal. Each of the last five meetings between these two squads have stayed 'under' 2.5 goals. While both teams can certainly use the three points as they try to ascend the EPL table, they can also ill afford to come up empty-handed. Expect both to plot carefully in what I anticipate being a relatively low-scoring affair. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
02-19-22 | Bruins -167 v. Senators | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
NHL Atlantic Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Boston over Ottawa at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. The Bruins have won just once in their last five games with that victory coming against the same Senators they'll face on Saturday night. While Boston has dealt with a number of key absences recently, most notably Brad Marchand (who remains suspended) and Patrice Bergeron (who recently returned), the Senators are no strangers to that as they continue to play on without stud defenseman Thomas Chabot and one of their top offensive threats in Drake Batherson (among others). Nevertheless, the Sens are coming off a 3-1 win in Buffalo, which actually puts them in a difficult spot here, noting that they've gone 0-10 when playing at home off a win by two goals or more against a division opponent over the last three seasons, outscored by 1.8 goals on average in that spot. Also note that the Sens average a miserable 1.6 goals per game when playing at home after winning two of their last three games this season, which is also the case here, outscored by 0.5 goals on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Bruins are 13-1 when coming off consecutive losses over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.3 goals in that spot. The B's have also outscored opponents by 0.9 goals when coming off a loss by 3+ goals this season (10-game sample size). Take Boston (10*). | |||||||
02-19-22 | Stetson v. Liberty -15 | 82-88 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Liberty minus the points over Stetson at 7 pm et on Saturday. We've had some success playing Stetson 'overs' this season but here I won't hesitate to switch gears and play the side, fading the road Hatters as they head to Liberty Arena to face the Flames. Liberty already defeated Stetson by 16 points on the road this season. It shot well in that contest but certainly didn't do anything special. In fact, Stetson ended up getting off three more three-point attempts and also got to the line 11 more times than Liberty in that contest. I'm confident we'll see the flip script in those two departments here. Liberty is coming off consecutive outright road losses as a favorite, dropping close games against Jacksonville and North Florida. It will be more than happy to take its frustrations out on Stetson here, noting that Liberty is 10-1 on its home floor this season, outscoring opponents by nearly 27 points per contest. Take Liberty (8*). | |||||||
02-19-22 | SIU-Edwardsville v. Belmont -21.5 | 62-73 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Belmont minus the points over SIU-Edwardsville at 5 pm et on Saturday. Belmont enters this game on the heels of nine straight wins but has actually gone 0-5 ATS over its last five contests. Look for that latter streak to come to an end here. We certainly saw signs of the Bruins breaking out of their recent malaise last time out as they crushed Eastern Illinois by 24 points - still failing to cover as a monster 27-point favorite. The Bruins broke loose for 60+ field goal attempts in that game - knocking down an impressive 59% of them and now get to stay home to host an Edwardsville squad that has done nothing to slow opposing offenses away from home (or anywhere for that matter) this season. The last couple of meetings between these two teams have been a little closer than expected but keep in mind, we're just two and three meetings removed from Belmont wins by 32 and 52-point margins. Take Belmont (7*). | |||||||
02-19-22 | Ball State v. Bowling Green -3 | Top | 91-82 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
MAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Bowling Green minus the points over Ball State at 5 pm et on Saturday. We faded Bowling Green last Saturday and were rewarded with a lopsided win by Miami-Ohio. That was on the road, where the Falcons have struggled all season. They do at least own a winning record at 8-5 here at home. They'll be looking to avenge a tough 81-80 loss on the road against Ball State back on New Year's Day. The two teams were virtual mirror images of one another on that day, with the exception being Ball State was able to knock down a few more of its shots. Here, we'll note that the Cardinals have struggled on the road this season, going 3-10 SU and 4-9 ATS. While Ball State was able to keep pace with Bowling Green at home, we should see a different story unfold here. Note that the Falcons average a blistering 87.2 points per game on their home floor. Ball State, meanwhile, has allowed opponents to shoot just shy of 47% from the field on the road, giving up north of 82 points per contest. With Ball State checking in a woeful 3-13 ATS when listed as a road underdog or 'pk going back to last season, we'll confidently back the hometown Falcons here. Take Bowling Green (10*). | |||||||
02-19-22 | Houston Baptist v. Nicholls State -12 | 70-84 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Nicholls State minus the points over Houston Baptist at 4 pm et on Saturday. Houston Baptist enters this game off three consecutive ATS wins while Nicholls State has dropped the cash in four consecutive games. With that being said, Nicholls State continues to win, having recorded six straight victories. Houston Baptist has done a nice job masquerading as a quality offensive team lately, putting up 80+ points in three of its last four games but I expect that scoring run to grind to a halt here. Note that Nicholls State has held opponents to just under 67 points per game on sub-40% shooting here at home this season. It has done that while also playing at a blistering pace offensively, getting off an incredible 72 field goal attempts per game on its home floor, knocking down better than 50% of them. The first meeting between these two teams this season went Nicholls State's way by only 12 points, but the margin would have been much larger had it been able to knock down more than two of its 16 three-point attempts. Take Nicholls State (8*). | |||||||
02-19-22 | Texas Tech v. Texas UNDER 126.5 | 61-55 | Win | 100 | 5 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Texas Tech and Texas at 12:30 pm et on Saturday. The first meeting between these two in-state rivals totalled 141 points back on February 1st. I don't think the Longhorns want any part of a similar type of contest here, noting that they allowed 77 points in that lopsided loss. Keep in mind, this is a Texas team that gives up just a shade over 50 points per game at home this season, on a ridiculously-low 49 field goal attempts. Texas Tech can play some defense too, as we saw in its impressive home win over Baylor earlier this week. The Red Raiders have held the opposition to 38% shooting on the road this season. This is without a doubt a low total, but it's actually higher than the closing number we saw in the first meeting between these two this season. With injury doubts for the Red Raiders (Kevin McCullar could miss again), I believe they'll be comfortable getting involved in a slugfest here. Expect an NCAA Tournament-like atmosphere for this one. Take the under (9*). | |||||||
02-19-22 | Verona v. Roma OVER 2 | 2-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between AS Roma and Hellas Verona at 12 noon et on Saturday. This promises to be an entertaining affair between two squads looking to pull closer to the top-six in Serie A by taking all three points in Saturday's game in Rome. Roma will need to keep on its front foot for this one having failed to earn a victory in any of its last three matches. There should be opportunities aplenty for the home side, however, noting that Hellas Verona have seen both teams score in five of their last seven contests with the 'over' 2.5 goals coming through in five of their last six overall. You would have to go back six meetings in this series to find the last time Roma posted a clean sheet against Hellas Verona. Not surprisingly each of the last five meetings have gone 'over' 2.5 total goals. I don't believe either side will be content to 'settle' for a draw in this one and that should lend itself to a relatively high-scoring contest. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
02-19-22 | Watford v. Aston Villa UNDER 2.5 | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Aston Villa and Watford at 10 am et on Saturday. I'm not anticipating much in the way of offensive fireworks as Aston Villa host a very manageable matchup on Saturday in Birmingham. Watford sits just one place above last in the EPL table and doesn't figure to pose a significant threat here having not scored a single goal in its last four matches, with no victories in its last 12 trips to the pitch. Of course, Aston Villa hasn't exactly been getting off on the right foot lately either, conceding the first goal in four of its last five matches. I'm just not convinced Watford has the firepower to take advantage of any Villa short-comings here. We have seen Watford play a more competitive brand of football away from home this season, ranking 16th rather than 19th when factoring in only 'away' contests. Aston Villa has struck just 31 times in 23 EPL matches this season so I do think Watford will fancy its chances of potentially coming away with a low-scoring draw in this one. Take the under (7*). | |||||||
02-19-22 | Everton v. Southampton OVER 2.5 | 0-2 | Loss | -118 | 12 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Southampton and Everton at 10 am et on Saturday. With matches in hand on the majority of the squads it looks up at in the English Premier League table, Everton can attempt to make a move but desperately needs all three points from Saturday's away match at Southampton. Interestingly, Southampton enters Saturday's contest undefeated over its last four matches, yet has conceded first in four of its last five overall. You would incredibly have to go back 16 matches to find the last time Southampton posted a clean sheet and I believe it will be hard-pressed to accomplish that feat on Saturday as well. Everton has been involved in its share of relatively high-scoring affairs recently, with six of its last seven matches resulting in at least three total goals. Noting that both combatants have scored in each of Southampton's last 10 contests, we can anticipate another crackling affair on Saturday. While Southampton has generally fallen behind the eight-ball with some consistency lately, it has actually struck first in five of its last seven matchups with Everton. Both teams have found the back of the net in eight of the last 10 meetings in this series but I believe they can do one better on Saturday with one of the two sides capturing the three points. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
02-19-22 | Hoffenheim v. VfL Wolfsburg OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
Bundesliga Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Wolfsburg and Hoffenheim at 9:30 am et on Saturday. Wolfsburg gets an opportunity to continue to climb the Bundesliga ranks as it goes for its third straight victory on Saturday. A win certainly won't come easy against fifth-place Hoffenheim but I do think it has a puncher's chance and that lends itself to a relatively high-scoring affair. Hoffenheim is coming off a much-needed 2-0 home win over Bielefield last time out. I expect it to face a far tougher challenge here, however. Note that despite that recent 2-0 victory, Hoffenheim has still seen both teams find the back of the net in eight of its last 10 games, conceding first in six of its last eight contests. Of course, it will be tough sledding for Wolfsburg here when you consider that it hasn't posted a clean sheet against Hoffenheim in any of the last 10 meetings in this series. Not surprisingly, each of the last seven matches between these two squads have gone 'over' 2.5 total goals with both teams scoring in each of the last seven meetings. With Hoffenheim looking to stay in the top-six and Wolfsburg aiming to inch closer to the top-10 positions in the Bundesliga, look for plenty of fireworks in this one. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
02-19-22 | Villarreal v. Granada UNDER 2.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -111 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Granada and Villarreal at 8 am et on Saturday. Granada will have to be extremely careful in this contest as it is clearly overmatched against Villarreal but might just be able to muck it up enough to come away with a hard-fought point if it plays its cards right. Granada enters this match having lost four matches in a row, failing to score in its last three. It has gone five consecutive matches without posting a clean sheet but is capable of accomplishing such a feat, keeping in mind we saw a 0-0 draw the last time these two squads met last August. Villarreal enters this match undefeated over its last three contests. It didn't allow a goal in any of those matches. Villarreal knows it can control proceedings against Granada - after all, it has gone undefeated in the last 11 meetings in this series. I'm just not convinced we'll see it shake loose offensively with Granada likely falling back into a defensive shell for much of the contest. While we've seen some offensive explosions in this series in the past, those type of affairs have been few and far between. Take the under (7*). | |||||||
02-18-22 | Kings +1.5 v. Golden Knights | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 29 m | Show |
NHL Division Puck-Line Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles +1.5 goals over Vegas at 10:05 pm et on Friday. The Kings were sluggish following their extended layoff, returning to the ice with a 5-2 home loss to the Oilers on Tuesday. Keep in mind, that game wasn't quite as lopsided as the final score indicated as Edmonton scored a pair of late empty net goals to stretch out the eventual winning margin. The Kings have certainly held their own on the road this season, posting a .500 record while being outscored by a slight average margin of 0.2 goals. As for the Knights, they've been uneven for much of the campaign and haven't had the same strong home ice advantage as we've seen in years' past. They're just 14-13 here in Las Vegas, outscoring opponents by just 0.3 goals on average. Here, we'll note that the Kings are 9-4 when coming off a loss by 3+ goals against a division opponent over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 0.9 goals on average in that spot. They've averaged an impressive 4.3 goals per game and outscored the opposition by 1.2 goals on average after giving up 3+ goals in four consecutive games over the last two seasons (eight-game sample size), which is also the spot they're in tonight. On the flip side of that, we've seen Los Angeles give up only 2.6 goals per contest when coming off a home loss by multiple goals over the last three seasons (24-game sample size). With the Knights missing goaltender Robin Lehner, not to mention Mark Stone (among others), I'm not sure even the recent debut of Jack Eichel can help spark a comfortable win for the home side on Friday. Take Los Angeles +1.5 goals (10*). | |||||||
02-18-22 | Predators +1.5 v. Hurricanes | 3-5 | Loss | -165 | 12 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Nashville +1.5 goals over Carolina at 7:05 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams are surprisingly struggling here in mid-February. I'm expecting an ultra-competitive affair on Friday night as neither team can afford to let another two points slip away. Note that the Preds check in 13-6 when coming off four or five losses in their last six games over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.5 goals on average in that situation. Better still, they're 8-1 when coming off consecutive losses by 2+ goals over the same stretch, outscoring opponents by an impressive average margin of 1.8 goals. On seven previous occasions where the Preds were held to a goal or less in their last game this season, they've responded by averaging 4.0 goals in their next contest. As for the Canes, they've stumbled trying to regain their footing when playing at home off a home loss over the last two seasons, as is the case here, only managing to score 2.3 goals per game while giving up an identical scoring average in that spot. Take Nashville +1.5 goals (8*). | |||||||
02-18-22 | Metz +1.5 v. Lille OSC | 0-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Metz +1.5 goals over Lille at 3 pm et on Friday. I don't have a lot negative to say about Lille. It is the superior squad in this match but I can't ignore the fact that Metz has played a different brand of football away from home this season, not to mention the fact that it proved to be a real thorn in Lille's side the last time these two squads met, scoring a goal in added time to come away with a point in a 3-3 draw. The most impressive part of that point earned was the fact that Metz did so down a man after being issued a red card earlier in the match. Here, we'll note that when factoring in only 'away' matches, Metz checks in ranked 10th in Ligue 1 this season (compared to 19th overall). Meanwhile, Lille has had no significant advantage at home in league play. When factoring in only 'home' matches, Lille sits an identical 10th to its overall record, still with a negative goal differential. It seems that no match is ever over until its over when it comes to Lille, noting that both teams have found the back of the net in six of its last eight matches, not to mention the fact that it has allowed 18 of its 35 goals in the final 15 minutes of either the first or second half in Ligue 1 play this season. Winless in its last three matches, I expect Metz to 'go for it' in this one. Take Metz +1.5 goals (6*). | |||||||
02-18-22 | Metz v. Lille OSC OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
Ligue 1 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Lille and Metz at 3 pm et on Friday. I'm fairly high on Lille but not without some hesitation for one particular reason. We've seen it have a difficult time keeping the ball out of its net when it matters most, allowing 18 of its 35 goals in 24 Ligue 1 matches in the final 15 minutes (plus added time) of the first or second half this season. While it sits a respectable 10th in the league table, it is the only squad inside the top 11 with a negative goal differential. It could easily take Ligue 1 bottom-feeder Metz (19th overall) lightly in this contest. Note that Metz has gone winless in its last three matches, with a recent tendency to get involved in low-scoring affairs as six of its last seven contests have stayed 'under' 2.5 goals. With that being said, I believe Lille can force it into a higher-scoring contest here, noting that both teams have scored in six of its last eight matches overall. Having scored a grand total of just three goals over a difficult three-match slate going back to late January, Lille will be eager for an opportunity to break loose here, and break loose it should considering that Metz has conceded a whopping 45 goals in 24 Ligue 1 matches this season. Speaking of struggling to contain opposing offenses when it matters most, Metz has been lit up for 20 goals in the final 15 minutes of the first or second half this season. Interestingly, though, Metz actually checks in ninth in Ligue 1 when factoring in only 'away' matches, albeit still with a poor -10 goal differential. It has found a way to play reasonably competitive football in hostile environments and should that be the way this one plays out, I believe we'll be in fine shape with the 'over'. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
02-18-22 | Rayo Vallecano v. Elche OVER 2 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Elche and Rayo Vallecano at 3 pm et on Friday. Neither of these squads are turning heads in La Liga action this season with Raya Vallecano sagging lately to fall all the way to 11th place and Elche sitting even further behind in 14th. With that being said, I'm expecting an entertaining affair between the two on Friday. Vallecano has reason to come out aggressively, having failed to register a victory in any of its last three matches. This is a favorable match for it to break out of its recent funk, noting that Elche has gone three consecutive matches without recording a clean sheet while failing to do so in each of the last six meetings between these two squads. On the flip side, there's reason for Elche to be confident that it can find some success, noting that Vallecano has conceded the first goal in five of its last seven matches, and both teams have managed to find the back of the net in five of the last six matches in this series. While goals haven't necessarily been easy to come by for Elche, it's biggest issue lies at its own end of the pitch, where it has conceded 33 goals in 24 La Liga matches this season. Most alarming is the fact that it has conceded eight goals in the final 15 minutes (plus added time) of its league matches, showing an inability to button things up in crunch time. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
02-17-22 | Canucks v. Sharks +1.5 | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Jose +1.5 goals over Vancouver at 10:35 pm et on Thursday. While we're being asked to lay a steep price to grab the insurance goal with the Sharks at home on Thursday night, I believe that price is warranted. San Jose returned from a nearly two-week layoff with a rather lifeless 3-0 loss to the Oilers on Monday. I certainly anticipate we'll see the Sharks bounce back here, however, noting that they're 6-1 when coming off a home loss by 3+ goals this season, outscoring opponents by 1.1 goals on average in that situation. They're also 9-3 when coming off consecutive defeats this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.9 goals in that spot. The Canucks average only 2.1 goals per game when playing on the road after scoring 3+ goals in consecutive games over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 0.8 goals on the 19 previous occasions that situation came up. Take San Jose +1.5 goals (5*). | |||||||
02-17-22 | Blue Jackets +1.5 v. Blackhawks | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 31 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on Columbus +1.5 goals over Chicago at 8:35 pm et on Thursday. The Blue Jackets are coming off a 6-2 loss in Calgary on Tuesday but are well-positioned to bounce back here, noting they've still won five of their last seven games. They'll catch the Blackhawks starting backup goaltender Arvid Soderblom, noting that he's appeared in two games this season, posting a poor .882 save precentage. Chicago posted a 3-1 win on the road against Winnipeg on Monday night, with goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury stealing the show in that one. That puts Chicago in a poor spot here, noting that it has gone a woeful 3-16 when coming off a victory by two goals or more over the last two seasons, outscored by 1.7 goals on average in that situation. Meanwhile, Columbus checks in 11-5 when coming off a loss by 2+ goals this season, as is the case here, averaging 3.4 goals per game and outscoring opponents by 0.4 goals on averave in that spot. Take Columbus +1.5 goals (8*). | |||||||
02-17-22 | 76ers v. Bucks UNDER 224.5 | 123-120 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Milwaukee at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. The Bucks enter this game on the heels of six consecutive 'over' results while the Sixers are fresh off a high-scoring game of their own - an unthinkable 135-87 blowout loss at home against Boston. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 26-11 with the Sixers having lost four or five of their last six games ATS over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of just 210.0 points. Better still, the 'under' is 17-4 when Philadelphia checks in off five or six ATS losses in its last seven contests over the same stretch, leading to an average total of only 207.7 points scored in that situation. As for the Bucks, they've seen the 'under' cash at a 15-5 clip when coming off two losses in their last three games this season, producing an average total of 213.3 points. In the rest of their games, the Bucks have posted a 23-16 o/u mark. Take the under (9*). | |||||||
02-17-22 | Bruins v. Islanders UNDER 5.5 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and New York at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. The Bruins have scored just five goals combined over their last four games and don't figure to show much improvement on Thursday as they travel to Long Island to face the Islanders. Note that the 'under' is 7-1 with the Bruins coming off a road loss this season, as is the case here following Tuesday's 2-1 defeat at the hands of the Rangers, with an average total of only 4.8 goals in that situation. Better still, the 'under' is 10-2 with the Bruins checking in off a game where they were held to a goal or less over the last two seasons with that situation producing an average total of only 3.7 goals. As for the Isles, they've lost three straight games, with the 'over' cashing in each of their last two contests. Note that the 'under' is 13-3 when they play at home off consecutive 'over' results over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of just 3.8 goals. When coming off consecutive games in which 7+ total goals were scored over the last three seasons, as is the case here, the Isles have seen an average total of only 4.4 goals. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
02-17-22 | Red Wings v. Rangers UNDER 6 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
NHL Metropolitan Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and New York at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Red Wings have seen their last four games go 'over' the total but I look for a different story to unfold on Thursday night in New York. Detroit has had a couple of days to stew over Monday's ugly 7-4 loss in Minnesota. Here, we'll note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 5-0 with the Wings coming off a game where both teams scored 4+ goals this season, resulting in an average total of just 4.0 goals. Meanwhile, the Rangers check in off a 2-1 win over the undermanned Bruins on Tuesday. They've seen the 'under' go 11-1 after allowing one goal or less in their previous game this season, with an average total of just 4.4 goals scored in that situation. The 'under' is also 14-4 with the Blueshirts playing at home after winning five or six of their last seven games over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of 5.2 goals. While New York has plenty of offensive firepower it has also quietly been an extremely stingy team here at home, allowing only 2.3 goals per contest. It may not need to score a lot to secure a win here, noting that Detroit averages only 2.6 goals per game on the road. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
02-17-22 | Senators v. Sabres UNDER 6 | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Ottawa and Buffalo at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. We've seen both previous meetings between these two teams total five goals or less this season and I expect more of the same on Thursday in Buffalo. The 'over' has cashed in each of the Sabres last four games but I don't see that trend continuing here. Note that the 'under' has gone 12-4 with the Sens coming off an 'over' result this season, resulting in an average total of 5.2 goals. The 'under' is also 19-9 with the Sens playing on the road after giving up 5+ goals in their previous game over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of 5.6 goals scored in that spot. As for the Sabres, they've seen the 'under' go a perfect 8-0 when seeking revenge for a road loss by 4+ goals against an opponent over the last three seasons, as is the case here, with an average total of only 3.9 goals scored in that situation. Take the under (9*). | |||||||
02-17-22 | Blues v. Canadiens UNDER 6 | 2-3 | Win | 110 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Montreal at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Blues have scored 14 goals over their last three games and opened their current road trip with a 5-2 win in Ottawa on Tuesday (we won with St. Louis in that game). While this certainly looks like another layup against the lowly Habs, I prefer to go 'under' the total in a bit of a contrarian spot here. Note that the 'under' is a perfect 6-0 with St. Louis coming off consecutive games in which it scored 5+ goals over the last three seasons, resulting in an average total of just 4.7 goals. The 'under' is also 25-15 with the Blues on the road after winning two of their last three contests over the last two seasons, leading to an average total of 5.6 goals. As for the Canadiens, they've seen the 'under' go 24-11 when playing at home seeking revenge for a loss by 2+ goals against an opponent over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 5.3 goals in that spot. The 'under' is also a solid 34-22 with the Habs playing at home off an 'over' result over the last two seasons, which is the case here following Sunday's 5-3 loss to Buffalo. Take the under (6*). | |||||||
02-17-22 | Real Sociedad v. RB Leipzig OVER 2.25 | 2-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between RB Leipzig and Real Sociedad at 3 pm et on Thursday. RB Leipzig picked up a much needed 3-1 victory over Koln last Friday and should bring plenty of confidence into this home affair against Real Sociedad on Thursday. As for Sociedad, it will likely be happy to get out of La Liga for one match at least as it has managed to win just once in its last three league contests, scoring only two goals along the way. In fact, it has scored a grand total of just two goals in its last four matches across all competitions. I simply feel there's too much talent on this side for that run of futility to be sustainable. I would certainly expect it to find some opportunities against an RB Leipzig squad that will undoubtedly push the pace in this one. Note that Sociedad has seen each of its last two Europa League affairs go 'over' 2.5 total goals. I'm confident that both sides will be willing participants in a high-energy contest here with Sociedad determined to pick up an away goal. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
02-17-22 | Rangers +1.5 v. Borussia Dortmund | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 24 h 19 m | Show |
Europa League Game of the Month. My selection is on Rangers +1.5 goals over Borussia Dortmund at 12:45 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'over' in Dortmund's most recent match - a 3-0 blanking of FC Union Berlin on Sunday. That was a bit of a surprising result, not that Dortmund managed to collect all three points as that was always a distinct possibility, but certainly that it won by such a lopsided margin, especially with all-world striker Erling Haaland sidelined due to injury. Here, most will expect Dortmund to keep it rolling against a seemingly overmatched side in Rangers but I'm not so easily convinced. Rangers enters this Europa League clash on a roll, having won three matches in a row, not conceding in any of those three contests. Meanwhile, Dortmund, while fresh off a clean sheet of its own has actually seen both teams find the back of the net in six of its last seven matches. I do think there's a path for Rangers to ripple the net at least once in this match. Given the fact that we're dealing with a relatively low total (by Dortmund standards), I believe that lends itself to a tightly-contested affair in the first leg of this matchup (the two teams will meet up again next Thursday in Scotland). Take Rangers +1.5 goals (10*). | |||||||
02-17-22 | Napoli +0.5 v. Barcelona FC | 1-1 | Win | 100 | 24 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Napoli +0.5 goals over Barcelona at 12:45 pm et on Thursday. Barcelona has been as inconsistent as they come lately, securing victory just twice in its last six matches. While this may certainly appear to be a favorable bounce-back spot in the first leg against Italian side Napoli, I'm not so sure it will be a walk in the park for Barca. Note that Napoli enters this match undefeated over its last four contests. It has been clinical in its attack, scoring first in six of its last seven contests while leading at the half in five of those matches. As for Barca, it hasn't been nearly as airtight defensively as we've come to expect, allowing the opposition to find the back of the net in six of its last seven matches. Napoli promises to provide a rather stingy challenge here, noting that it has seen eight of its last 10 contests finish with fewer than 2.5 total goals. While Barca is undefeated in the last four matches between these two squads, they haven't met since August of 2020. Barca is obviously a different team now than it was then and I expect Napoli to be up to the challenge on Thursday at Camp Nou. Take Napoli +0.5 goals (8*). | |||||||
02-16-22 | Boise State v. Air Force +10.5 | 85-59 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Air Force plus the points over Boise State at 10 pm et on Wednesday. When these two teams met back on January 18th in Boise, the Broncos prevailed by just six points. That was despite a wide 32-14 disparity in terms of free throw attempts in favor of the hometown Broncos, not to mention the fact that Air Force turned the basketball over a whopping 20 times. I would anticipate the Falcons improving in both of those areas with the scene shifting to Colorado Springs for Wednesday's rematch. Note that while the Falcons come into this game on the heels of five straight losses, Boise State has a streak of futility of its own having gone 0-4 ATS over its last four contests. Off a home loss to Colorado State on Sunday, the Broncos will simply be looking to pick up a 'W' and move on against a stingy opponent in Air Force on Wednesday. Winning by margin is of little consequence but we're being given a generous helping of points with the home underdog. Note that Air Force has done a tremendous job of slowing the pace down to a crawl and frustrating the opposition here at home this season, allowing an average of just 50 field goal attempts per contest. Also note that the Falcons are a solid 7-1 ATS when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent this season, outscored by an average margin of just 2.2 points in that situation. Take Air Force (8*). | |||||||
02-16-22 | Baylor v. Texas Tech UNDER 137 | Top | 73-83 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
Big 12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Baylor and Texas Tech at 9 pm et on Wednesday. Both of these teams are coming off 80+ point performances in winning efforts on Saturday. I don't expect either side to sniff out that number on Wednesday, however. Those respective 'over' results snapped two-game 'under' streaks for both teams. They also served to give us a bit of a higher total to work than we might have otherwise seen here considering the first meeting between the Bears and Red Raiders this season saw a closing total of just 135.5 in a game that totalled only 127 points. Texas Tech pulled off a stunning 65-62 upset victory in that one, thanks in large part to shooting just shy of 51% from the field. It will be hard-pressed to repeat that performance here as Baylor has locked in defensively ever since that 83-59 loss in Kansas a week-and-a-half ago. Since then, the Bears have held Kansas State and Texas to 60 and 63 points, respectively, on a combined 41-of-115 (35.6%) shooting. You would have to go back six games to find the last time Texas Tech allowed more than 70 points. It has done a tremendous job on defense here at home this season, limiting the opposition to just 20-of-52 shooting on average while giving up just a shade over 58 points per game. In last year's meeting on this floor, Texas Tech held Baylor to just 68 points on 41.8% shooting but ultimately fell by a 68-60 score. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
02-16-22 | Pistons v. Celtics UNDER 214.5 | Top | 112-111 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Boston at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Celtics are arguably the hottest team in the league right now and enter this game off a 135-87 drubbing of the Sixers in Philadelphia last night. With this being their last game prior to the All-Star break, I expect them to 'manage' proceedings wisely. Yes, last night's 135-point outburst was impressive but let's face it, the Sixers simply didn't show up, essentially laying down after falling behind early. Offensively explosions like that haven't been commonplace for the C's. They did have another similar performance in Brooklyn last week but followed it up by scoring just 108 and 105 points during a brief two-game homestand. Boston has actually been a slightly lower-scoring team at home compared to only the road this season, averaging 108.1 points per game. The 'under' is 18-12 at TD Garden this season with an average total of just 210.8 points. As for the Pistons, they managed to score only 94 points against a struggling Wizards squad last time out. They're just three games removed from scoring 86 points in a lopsided loss in Dallas and put up only 93 points at home against these same Celtics back on February 4th (that game totalled only 195 points). They've shot sub-38% in three of their last six games overall. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 33-21 with the Pistons seeking revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent over the last two seasons. Meanwhile, the 'under' is a perfect 9-0 with the Celtics coming off consecutive ATS wins as a favorite over the last two seasons, with that spot producing an average total of only 203.2 points. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
02-16-22 | Wild -140 v. Jets | 3-6 | Loss | -140 | 12 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota over Winnipeg at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Wild have undoubtedly had this one circled on their calendar since dropping an ugly 2-0 decision here in Winnipeg last week. That was as lifeless of a performance as you'll see from Minnesota as it was perhaps caught looking past a one-game trip to Winnipeg coming out of the All-Star break. Since then, we've actually cashed with the Wild in consecutive games against the Hurricanes and Red Wings. We still haven't seen a complete performance from the Wild since the break, however, noting that they were outshot in both of those victories. The Jets desperately need all the points they can get right now but were handed a disappointing 3-1 loss at home against the Blackhawks on Monday. That was precisely the type of winnable game they couldn't afford to lose and now comes a much tougher matchup against a revenge-minded Wild squad. Note that the Jets have been held to three goals or less in 13 of their last 15 games. By contrast, the Wild have scored three or more in 14 of their last 15 contests. On the flip side, the Wild have given up 2.8 goals per game on the road this season, identical to that of the Jets here at home. Note that Winnipeg is a miserable 1-5 when playing a fourth game in seven days this season, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 1.3 goals in that situation. Take Minnesota (8*). | |||||||
02-16-22 | Bayern Munich v. Salzburg OVER 2.75 | 1-1 | Loss | -122 | 27 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first half 'over' between Bayern Munich and Red Bull Salzburg at 3 pm et on Wednesday. Bayern doesn't exactly bring its best form into this Champions League match on Wednesday, fresh off a stunning 4-2 away defeat at the hands of Bochum on Saturday. That should only serve to ramp up its focus ahead of this critical contest against a punchy Red Bull Salzburg squad on Wednesday, and I believe it lends itself to a rather fast start in this one. Note that Bayern has been first to score in each of its last seven matches - a scenario I can certainly see playing out once again here. With that being said, we've also seen it have trouble containing opposing attacks, allowing seven goals over its last three matches. Salzburg comes in confident off of three consecutive wins but has proven vulnerable at the back end in Champions League play, having yielded four first half goals to the opposition in its last six UCL matches and it only gets tougher against a BM squad in a foul mood on Wednesday. Of course, Bayern has been clinical in the early stages of Champions League action, scoring nine first half goals in its last six UCL contests. If Salzburg is to have any sort of a chance of keeping within arm's reach of Bayern, it needs to get off to a promising start. Keep in mind, Bayern prevailed by scores of 6-2 and 3-1 in Champions League matches between these two back in 2020, holding a combined 3-1 edge in the first half of those two contests. Salzburg desperately needs to fight fire with fire in this case, as it is highly unlikely that it will be able to contain Bayern for long. I expect plenty of early fireworks between these two on Wednesday. Take the first half over (8*). | |||||||
02-16-22 | Liverpool v. Inter Milan UNDER 3.5 | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 26 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first half 'under' between Inter Milan and Liverpool at 3 pm et on Wednesday. I don't expect either of these sides to give an inch, particularly in the early stages of Wednesday's Champions League clash. To say that Inter Milan has been stingy in the first half in Champions League play would be an understatement. It has given up a grand total of one goal in the first half of its previous six UCL contests. Liverpool has been a little more forgiving, allowing five first half goals in its last six UCL affairs but I'm not convinced Inter will be able to take advantage. Note that Inter has found the back of the net only once over its last six UCL matches. Inter knows it will need to be extremely cautious here in the home leg of this UCL showdown as Liverpool comes in hot, having won six matches in a row - undefeated in its last nine matches overall. Liverpool has also managed to kick off the scoring in each of its last six contests. We were benefactors of that in its most recent match as we backed the Reds in the first half against Burnley over the weekend. Of course, we were fortunate to cash that ticket as Liverpool waited until the waning moments of the first half to finally strike. While there's plenty of offensive punch to be featured in this one, I'm not sure we'll see the action really heat up before halftime, with a 'feeling out' process likely the first order of the day. Take the first half 'under' (6*). | |||||||
02-16-22 | Reading v. Peterborough United OVER 2.5 | 0-0 | Loss | -104 | 27 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Peterborough United and Reading at 2:45 pm et on Wednesday. Low totals are generally the norm in the English Championship, and sometimes for good reason as we saw in Monday's Blackburn-West Brom match that saw no offensive fireworks whatsoever. I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday, however, as two desperate sides near the bottom of the table do battle. Incredibly, it's been 20 matches since Reading last posted a clean sheet. With that being said, Peterborough checks in having allowed the first goal in five of its last seven matches. Having been shut out in its last two contests, Peterborough will undoubtedly be looking to take advantage of this mouth-watering matchup, noting that it hasn't been shut out by Reading in any of the last six meetings in this series. In fact, each of the last eight matchups between these two English sides has gone 'over' the 2.5 goal total we're working with on Wednesday. Additionally, both teams have found the back of the net in five of the last six matches between the two. Few squads have been as forgiving as these two this season, with Reading having posted a -24 goal differential and Peterborough considerably worse in that department at -37. The question is of course whether either side has the creativity or punch to break through offensively. Given the matchup, I'm confident they can. The last match in the series came last September with Reading cruising to a 3-1 win. We can anticipate some form of payback from Peterborough here and I believe that lends itself to another relatively high-scoring affair. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
02-16-22 | Levante v. Atletico Madrid OVER 2 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 1 m | Show |
La Liga Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Atletico Madrid and Levante at 1 pm et on Wednesday. While I'm not interested in playing a side here with the odds tilted considerably in Atletico's favor, I will make a play on the total as I'm confident we see another relatively high-scoring affair between these two squads, which check in at virtually opposite ends of the La Liga spectrum. You would have to go back seven matches to find the last time Atletico posted a clean sheet. Similarly, it hasn't held lowly Levante off the scoreboard in the last three matches in this series. That includes the last time it hosted Levante almost a year ago to the day, when it was stunned 2-0. Here, I'm confident we'll see Atletico pour it on and Levante figures to serve as an ideal punching bag having lost three matches in a row, not to mention conceding the first goal in four of its last five contests. We've seen a nice run of six consecutive matches involving Atletico finding their way 'over' 2.5 goals. I do believe that Levante can make some contribution in this one as well, noting that it will come in confident having not lost any of its last three meetings with the seemingly superior Atletico side. It's certainly worth noting that the winning side has scored at least three goals all on its own in five of Levante's last seven La Liga matches. The only occasions where we didn't see such a story unfold came in matches against Mallorca and Cadiz, two of La Liga's bottom-six squads (Levante currently sits in last place in La Liga). Take the over (10*). | |||||||
02-15-22 | Clippers v. Suns UNDER 223.5 | 96-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Phoenix at 10 pm et on Tuesday. The last time we saw these two teams meet they combined to score just 195 points, staying well below the closing total of 222. We're dealing with an even higher total this time around, largely due to the Suns recent high-scoring results. In fact, the 'over' is 4-0 in the Suns last four games and has cashed in six of their last seven contests overall. I'm not convinced that's a sustainable trend when you consider the 'under' is still 28-27-1 in all Suns games this season with an average total of 219.1 points scored. The Clippers are coming off a relatively high-scoring game of their own last night against Golden State (we missed cashing our 'under' ticket by a single point). The 'over' has now come through in six of their last seven games as well. After shooting better than 52% in consecutive games, I look for the Clippers offense to come back to Earth in this back-to-back spot, as they continue to play without newly-acquired Norm Powell, and could miss Luke Kennard again as well. Last night we saw Tre Mann go off for the Clips, pacing their 119-point outburst. Keep in mind, that was their highest point total since back on January 19th. They average just 105.6 points per game on the road this season, where the 'under' has gone 15-13-1. The Suns have done a terrific job of smothering opposing offenses lately, holding seven straight opponents to 90 or fewer field goal attempts. The Clippers don't play at all that quick of a tempo to begin with and I certainly don't anticipate them shooting the lights out against a Suns squad that limits opponents to 105.3 points per game on 43.7% shooting at home this season. Take the under (9*). | |||||||
02-15-22 | Hornets v. Wolves UNDER 243.5 | 120-126 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Charlotte and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. This game features one of the highest posted totals in the NBA this season. I believe it will prove too high. The Hornets enter this game off consecutive 'over' results. Their last game against the Grizzlies on Saturday only crept 'over' the total thanks to Memphis carrying a 31-point lead into halftime and then essentially laying down defensively in the second half, allowing Charlotte to score a whopping 75 points. I'm certainly expecting a more competitive affair between these two relatively evenly-matched teams tonight. Despite those to recent 'over' results, the 'under' remains 18-8 in the Hornets last 26 games. The T'Wolves are coming off a ridiculously high-scoring four-game road trip, with the 'over' cashing in all four of those games. Here, we have a 'catalyst for change' as Minnesota returns home, where it has played to considerably lower-scoring results with the 'under' cashing at a 15-11 clip. In fact, the T'Wolves average 4.1 points per game below their season scoring average while allowing 6.5 ppg less here at home. Their home games have averaged a total of just 214.4 points. It's also worth noting that the 'under' has gone 9-1 in the Hornets last 10 games played on two days' rest going back to last season, with that spot producing an average total of just 108.5 points. Take the under (9*). | |||||||
02-15-22 | Villanova v. Providence +4.5 | 89-84 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Providence plus the points over Villanova at 8 pm et on Tuesday. Providence almost got caught looking past DePaul on its home floor on Saturday but ultimately prevailed by three points in overtime, never sniffing out an ATS cover in that contest. I think in some ways as a result of that sleepy performance, we know get to grab almost a handful of points with the Friars at home - where they're 14-0 this season - against Villanova. The Wildcats were involved in a tough game of their own on Saturday, outlasting Seton Hall by six points. Providence always seems to give Villanova trouble on this floor - even weaker Friars squads of years' past. Last season, Providence won by two points as a four-point home underdog. In 2019 and 2020 they lost by six and four points, respectively. In 2018, the Friars upset the Wildcats as a 9.5-point underdog. You get the picture. It's certainly worth noting that five of Villanova's six losses this season have come on the road, where they've outscored opponents by an average margin of only 3.5 points per game. Providence checks in a perfect 7-0 ATS in an underdog role this season, actually managing to outscore opponents by 6.0 points on average in that situation. With super sixth-man Jared Bynum taking his game to another level over the last two games, leading the Friars in scoring on both contests, I like Providence's chances of keeping it rolling ahead of a return date against 'Nova on March 1st. Take Providence (6*). | |||||||
02-15-22 | Celtics v. 76ers +1.5 | Top | 135-87 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
NBA Atlantic Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Boston at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. The Celtics are absolutely rolling right now, winners of eight games in a row, going 5-2-1 ATS over that stretch. Keep in mind, they were favored by at least six points in all eight of those contests. They'll face their toughest challenge in weeks on Tuesday night, as they go up against a rested 76ers squad that hasn't taken the floor since posting an impressive double-digit win over the Cavs on Saturday night. It seems as though the Philadelphia bandwagon was cleared thanks to last week's home loss to the Suns. That's not to mention the fact that James Harden remains sidelined after coming over in last week's blockbuster trade with the Nets. Note that Boston is just 13-15 SU on the road this season, including a 111-99 loss here in Philadelphia back in mid-January - a game that wasn't as close as the final score indicated. The 76ers are a modest 16-12 at home this season but have outscored opponents by an average margin of 3.9 points per game. Here, we'll note that Boston is a woeful 5-16 ATS when coming off a double-digit victory over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 2.9 points in that spot. Philadelphia on the other hand has gone a terrific 40-26 ATS when playing consecutive home games over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 6.7 points on average in that situation. Take Philadelphia (10*). | |||||||
02-15-22 | Blues -190 v. Senators | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis over Ottawa at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the Blues in Saturday's lopsided 5-1 victory over the Blackhawks and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with them again on Tuesday as they open a four-game road trip in Ottawa. For St. Louis, the win over the Blackhawks was its first in its last three games. It certainly won't want to cough up that positive momentum on Tuesday night. It catches Ottawa at the right time as the Sens are coming off a 4-1 win in Washington on Sunday but could be without a number of key contributors for Tuesday's game, including stud defenseman Thomas Chabot, who suffered an undisclosed injury in Sunday's contest. It's been a long haul for the banged-up Sens lately as this will be their sixth game in the last nine nights. Note that they've averaged just 2.0 goals per game and have been outscored by an average margin of 0.8 goals when playing their fourth game in seven nights this season, which is the case here. Meanwhile, the Blues have been a nice positive momentum play, allowing just 1.4 goals while outscoring the opposition by 1.2 goals on average when coming off a win by four goals or more this season (five-game sample size). Take St. Louis (8*). | |||||||
02-15-22 | Buffalo v. Bowling Green OVER 163 | 112-85 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
CBB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Buffalo and Bowling Green at 7 pm et on Tuesday. While there are times the oddsmakers can't set the total low enough (case in point our play on the Virginia-Virginia Tech 'under' last night - a sub-120 total), there are also situations where the number simply can't be set high enough. The latter is the case here in my opinion. We won a big play on a Buffalo 'over' last week - a game that reached 166 points despite its extremely lopsided nature against Eastern Michigan (Buffalo won 102-64). Here, I'm anticipating a far more competitive affair for the Bulls, but ultimately a game that will be equally, if not even higher scoring. Buffalo has taken its aggressiveness on offense to a whole new level lately, hoisting up 70+ field goal attempts in three of its last five games. The only two contests were it didn't get off 70+ shots came in lopsided affairs at Ohio (a 21-point loss) and at home against Central Michigan (a 20-point win). Bowling Green can run and gun with the best of them. In fact, only four other teams in the country rank higher in terms of adjusted tempo this season (according to KenPom). We successfully faded the Falcons in their most recent game as they fell by a 92-78 score at Miami-Ohio on Saturday. They've had no interest in trying to limit opponents scoring opportunities here at home, allowing 74.6 points per game on an average of 64 field goal attempts per contest. Offensively, the Falcons have been hard to handle here on their home floor, hoisting up a whopping 68 field goal attempts per game, resulting in north of 87 points per contest. These two teams met back in January in Buffalo - a game that totalled 187 points. We didn't see anything particularly out of the ordinary in that game, perhaps other than Buffalo getting to the free throw line 35 times (and making 33 of those). Even if we do temper expectations on that front, we still have plenty of wiggle room with this total sitting in the low-160's (at the time of writing). Take the over (10*). | |||||||
02-15-22 | Brighton & Hove Albion v. Manchester United OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -103 | 27 h 44 m | Show |
EPL Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Manchester United and Brighton & Hove at 3:15 pm et on Tuesday. We missed with Manchester United as its misery continued with a disappointing 1-1 home draw against Southampton on Saturday. I see this as a fine 'get right' spot, particularly at the offensive end of the pitch but given the Red Devils recent vulnerability at the back-end, I suspect Brighton & Hove will be able to find some success as well. The fact that we're dealing with a relatively low posted total is no surprise. Man U has seen four of its last five matches stay 'under' 2.5 goals while the same can be said for Brighton in five of its last six contests. That's a bit conflicting, however, as both teams have scored in five of Man U's last six matches and seven of Brighton's last eight. Also, in spite of the Red Devils recent struggles, going winless in their last three matches, they've actually managed to score first in seven straight matches and here will face a Brighton squad that tends to play from behind, allowing the first score in five of its last six. In this particular series, goals haven't been all that difficult to come by. In fact, each of the last seven meetings between these two squads has gone 'over' 2.5 total goals with both teams finding the back of the net in five of those contests. You would have to go back eight meetings to find the last time Brighton shut Man U out entirely so again, this looks like a fine 'get right' situation, which lends itself to a relatively high-scoring affair in my opinion. Take the over (10*). |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ricky Tran | $756 |
ProSportsPicks | $632 |
Joseph D'Amico | $510 |
Joey Tron | $450 |
Tom Macrina | $399 |
Nick Parsons | $344 |
Sean Murphy | $306 |
Jack Jones | $303 |
William Burns | $233 |
Dan Kaiser | $220 |