Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
06-10-21 | Nets v. Bucks OVER 234 | 83-86 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Brooklyn and Milwaukee at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. We missed with the 'over' in Game 2 between these two teams two nights ago as the lack of competitiveness from the Bucks once again led to a lower-scoring game than expected. It's become evident that Milwaukee isn't going to be able to slow down the Nets scoring machine, having now allowed 125, 114, 118, 115 and 125 points, with Brooklyn hardly breaking a sweat in the latter two performances, in five meetings this season. If the Bucks are going to get back in this series they're going to need to come up with a big offensive showing themselves on Thursday and I'm confident we'll see exactly that. Note that Milwaukee averages just shy of 121 points per game at home this season. It falls into an excellent situation here with the 'over' having gone 15-5 the last 20 times Milwaukee has been seeking revenge for a loss as a road favorite (the Bucks inexplicably closed as short favorites in Game 2 in Brooklyn). In that situation, the Bucks have averaged over 123 points per game with an average total of 239.8 points. Brooklyn has actually been a higher-scoring team on the road than at home this season, averaging 119.9 points per game with an average total of 237.1 points scored. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
06-10-21 | Nets v. Bucks -154 | Top | 83-86 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
NBA Playoff Moneyline Game of the Year. My selection is on Milwaukee moneyline over Brooklyn at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. I like the fact that the Bucks have had two full days to sit around and listen to everyone saying they're a 'regular season team' and that they have no shot at coming back against the Nets in this series. Keep in mind, Milwaukee closed as a favorite in Game 2 of this series in Brooklyn. The oddsmakers were certainly giving them more than just a chance at getting back in this series at that point. Now we're seeing an overreaction following the lopsided nature of Game 2. Consider that the Nets have gone just 2-7 SU after a win by 20 points or more this season, outscored by an average margin of 2.9 points in those nine contests. They're also just 3-7 SU when on the road after scoring 110 points or more in three straight games this season, outscored by an average margin of 6.3 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Bucks are an incredible 15-3 SU when seeking revenge for a loss as a road favorite (yes, they closed as a short favorite in Game 2) over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 6.8 points in that spot. Finally, I'll point out that Milwaukee checks in 35-9 SU when playing at home off an ATS loss over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 12.7 points on average in that situation. Take Milwaukee moneyline (10*). | |||||||
06-10-21 | Astros v. Red Sox -110 | 8-12 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston over Houston at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the Red Sox to avoid the sweep at the hands of the Astros on Thursday night at Fenway Park. While this pitching matchup certainly doesn't appear to favor Boston as Houston sends Zach Greinke to the hill against Eduardo Rodriguez. Greinke has been terrific this season but he's also been spotted plenty of run support. While he's coming off a complete game victory over the Blue Jays in Buffalo last week, he's still averaging just over 6 1/3 innings per start this season which does leave the door open for an Astros bullpen that while solid lately, still owns a 4.39 ERA and 1.51 WHIP with only six converted saves compared to seven blown on the road this season. As mentioned, Eduardo Rodriguez will counter for Boston. He wasn't good against the Astros last week but did bounce back with a solid outing in a 7-3 road victory over the Yankees on Saturday. Note that Rodriguez has pitched considerably better at home than on the road this season and that most recent start against the Astros came in Houston. Here at Fenway Park, he owns a 4.26 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP with the Sox winning two of his three starts. Behind Rodriguez is a terrific Boston bullpen that has posted a collective 3.32 ERA and 1.34 WHIP with nine converted saves compared to only four blown here at home this season. Take Boston (10*). | |||||||
06-10-21 | Rockies v. Marlins OVER 7.5 | 4-11 | Win | 104 | 8 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and Miami at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams have been involved in a number of relatively low-scoring games recently. I expect a different story to unfold on Thursday, however. The Rockies will hand the ball to Chi Chi Gonzalez. He's been awful on the road this season, posting a 6.20 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in five starts, spanning 24 2/3 innings of work. Noting that he averages less than five innings per start away from home, we should see plenty of a Rockies bullpen that has posted a collective 4.66 ERA and 1.53 WHIP on the road this season. Colorado's 'pen has converted just 10 saves this season while blowing nine. Marlins ace Trevor Rogers will counter. He's been excellent this season, however, it's worth noting that two of his last three starts have totaled a whopping 15 runs. Note that Rogers actually only averages 5 2/3 innings per start, and slightly less than that here at home. He'll be facing a Rockies lineup that has been better against southpaw starters, hitting .270 as a team. Miami's bullpen has eight blown saves compared to only seven converted in night games this season and has posted a collective 5.26 ERA and 1.44 WHIP over its last seven contests. While I do like the Marlins to prevail in this one, I think it could be higher-scoring than most expect. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
06-10-21 | Sparks v. Mystics -4 | 71-89 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington minus the points over Los Angeles at 7 pm et on Thursday. The Mystics have managed to turn their season around, relatively speaking, by winning two of their last four games with the two losses over that stretch coming against two championship-caliber teams in Connecticut and Las Vegas. Here, I look for the Mystics to take advantage a depleted Sparks squad traveling across a couple of time zones to play this Thursday night contest in Washington. Note that while Los Angeles is coming off consecutive victories, its most recent came on a day where the game was essentially handed to it by a disjointed Chicago squad. The Sky had awful performances all over the court on that day while the Sparks saw Amanda Zahui B, Erica Wheeler and Te'a Cooper play above expectations in a come-from-behind five-point win. Washington has seen the duo of Ariel Atkins and Myisha Hines-Allen really emerge as consistent scoring threats in the last couple of games and I look for it to ride their strong performances to another victory on Thursday. Take Washington (10*). | |||||||
06-09-21 | Nuggets v. Suns UNDER 222.5 | Top | 98-123 | Win | 100 | 24 h 2 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Phoenix at 9:30 pm et on Wednesday. Game 1 of this game found its way 'over' the total which was not a surprising result by any means. I will be surprised if we don't see both teams tighten up defensively in Game 2 on Wednesday night, however. Note that the 'under' has gone 18-9 with the Nuggets coming off three straight games totaling 215 points or more this season with those contests totaling an average of 219.3 points. Also note that the Nuggets have allowed just 107.6 points per game when trailing in a playoff series over the last three seasons while the Suns have given up just 102.2 points per game when favoted by six points or less at home this season. The Suns have generally been at their best offensively with two or more days' rest between games in these playoffs - largely due to Chris Paul's nagging shoulder injury needing time to heal up between games. Here, we're back to a game on just one day of rest which I do think could diminish the Suns offense somewhat. Phoenix is absolutely locked in defensively right now holding the opposition to 46.7% shooting or worse in seven straight games. Meanwhile, the Nuggets know they need to toughen up defensively here after allowing opponents to shoot 50% or better in three of their last four games. The 'over' has cashed in three straight meetings in this series. Time for a reversal of that trend here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
06-09-21 | Nuggets +5.5 v. Suns | 98-123 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver plus the points over Phoenix at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday. Despite the relatively lopsided result in the opener of this series I still think this has the makings of a long series between two teams that have the ability to win away from home. Case in point, the Nuggets took two of three games in Portland in the opening round and despite their Game 1 loss, check in 24-16 away from home this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 2.6 points. Here, we find the Nuggets an incredible 12-2 ATS when trailing in a playoff series over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by 4.9 points on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Suns are just 10-22 ATS when playing at home after scoring 120 points or more in a game over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 2.0 points in that situation. There's really no intimidation factor at play here as the Nuggets have taken five of the last six meetings in this series here in Phoenix. The Suns have looked better when playing on more than one day of rest during these playoffs, particularly with Chris Paul dealing with a nagging shoulder injury. They're just 2-2 ATS when playing on one day of rest but a perfect 3-0 ATS when coming off two or more off days. Both of their SU losses in these playoffs came on one day of rest. Take Denver (10*). | |||||||
06-09-21 | Fever v. Sky UNDER 161 | 76-92 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Chicago at 8 pm et on Wednesday. We haven't played many 'unders' in WNBA action this season but I will on Wednesday night as the reeling Fever head to Chicago to take on the Sky. Indiana has been a complete disaster this season, winning just once in 10 games - that coming earlier in the campaign against a struggling Mystics squad. The Fever have now shot worse than 40% from the field in four straight games and don't figure to bust out against an improving Sky defense that has held five of their last six opponents to 42.9% shooting or worse. While Indiana has struggled defensively, it's certainly worth noting that it has faced a brutal schedule lately, with its last four games coming on the road against Las Vegas (twice), Seattle and Los Angeles. It catches a bit of a scheduling break here as the Sky have yet to get things sorted this season with key players in and out of the lineup. Chicago is expected to welcome Candace Parker to the floor for the first time this season on Wednesday but how much she'll contribute in her first game back remains to be seen. Chicago has proven to be one of the league's weakest offensive teams so far this season, shooting 41.2% or worse from the field in all nine games to date. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
06-09-21 | Bruins v. Islanders OVER 5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
NHL East Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and New York at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the 'over' in Game 5 of this series on Monday night - one of our easiest winning tickets of the entire playoffs. While my first instinct was to give a hard look at the 'under' in Game 6, I just can't get there given the state of the Bruins. Goaltender Tuukka Rask was of course lifted from Game 5 due to an undisclosed injury. Maybe he'll be able to go on Wednesday, but even if he can, he hasn't shown the ability to steal a game in these playoffs. Top defenseman Brandon Carlo is also sidelined, an absolute anchor defensively in the B's own end of the rink. The Islanders are a supremely confident squad right now and should keep an attacking mindset with a chance to eliminate the favored Bruins on home ice in Game 6, avoiding a Game 7 back in Boston. Remember, last round the Isles overwhelmed the Penguins, scoring five goals in a series-clinching Game 6 victory here at the Nassau Coliseum. The Isles know they can't stop the Bruins 'Perfection Line' with Pastrnak, Marchand and Bergeron generating a ton of scoring chances in this series, with a hand in the majority of the Bruins goals. Note that the Isles are averaging an impressive 3.5 goals per game on home ice this season. Meanwhile, the Bruins have averaged 4.0 goals per game when coming off two or more straight losses this season. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
06-09-21 | Brewers v. Reds OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
MLB National League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Cincinnati at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a somewhat surprising low-scoring contest between these two teams last night but I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday. Veteran left-hander Brett Anderson will take the ball for the Brewers. He owns a 4.63 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in five nighttime starts this season and the Reds will be getting their fifth look at him since the start of last season. Note that he's allowed six home runs against them in those previous four starts. Anderson averages less than four innings per start on the road this season so we'll likely see plenty of a Brewers bullpen that while solid overall this season has really struggled against division opponents, posting a collective 5.01 ERA and 1.41 WHIP entering last night's contest. They got stretched out last night as Adrian Houser could give the Brew Crew just 5 1/3 innings in that 5-1 victory. Vladimir Gutierrez will get his third start of the season for the Reds. He's been fine through two starts but don't count on him to work deep into this ball game. Note that he's lasted just five innings in each of his previous two outings. That opens the door for a dreadful Reds bullpen that has recorded a collective 7.21 ERA and 1.48 WHIP here at home this season (entering last night's game), with just two converted save opportunities. The Brewers offense while subpar for much of the season, has come around a bit lately, averaging right around five runs per game over the last week. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
06-09-21 | Nationals v. Rays -156 | Top | 9-7 | Loss | -156 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Washington at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. This price seems awfully short given the way the pitching matchup sets up on Wednesday night in St. Petersburg. Pat Corbin will take the ball for the Nationals. The wheels have fallen off for him a bit this season, particularly on the road, where he has posted a 7.30 ERA and 1.66 WHIP in five starts, with the Nationals winning only one of those games. He averages just a shade over five innings per start this season and you would have to go back five outings to find the last time he made it through the sixth inning. That spells trouble as the Nats' bullpen hasn't been good, recording a 4.53 ERA and 1.37 WHIP on the road. Entering last night's game, Washington's relief corps had posted a 6.26 ERA and 1.39 WHIP with a pair of blown save opportunities over their last seven games. Rookie Shane McClanahan will counter for Tampa Bay. He's made three home starts, recording a 3.77 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. While he averages less than five innings per start that's not a big concern as the Rays bullpen has been outstanding. Tampa relievers have posted a collective 2.85 ERA and 1.11 WHIP at home this season, making good on seven of nine save opportunities. The Rays have been one of the best teams in baseball in recent weeks and I look for them to post another victory on Wednesday. Take Tampa Bay (10*). | |||||||
06-09-21 | Astros v. Red Sox -134 | 8-3 | Loss | -134 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston over Houston at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. This one sets up well for the Red Sox as they look to bounce back following last night's 7-1 loss in the series-opener. They'll be facing Astros starter Jake Odorizzi for the second time this season after they defeated him by a 5-1 score last week (we won with the Red Sox first five innings in that contest). Odorizzi hasn't fared well since joining the Astros rotation, posting a 7.17 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in five starts. He's averaging only 3 1/3 innings per start which spells trouble as the Astros bullpen has posted a collective 4.61 ERA and 1.57 WHIP on the road this season where they've converted just five of 12 save opportunities. Nathan Eovaldi will counter for Boston. He's been good but not great overall this season but has been particularly sharp in nighttime starts, recording a 1.93 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in four outings. It's encouraging that he has worked just shy of six innings per start and we're fine supporting the Red Sox bullpen here, noting that they've posted a collective 3.19 ERA and 1.32 WHIP here at Fenway Park, making good on nine of 13 save opportunities. Note that over the last seven games, the Boston 'pen has recorded a sparkling 1.37 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. Take Boston (10*). | |||||||
06-09-21 | Storm v. Dream +10 | Top | 95-71 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
WNBA Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Seattle at 7 pm et on Wednesday. In my opinion, this is a bit of a lazy WNBA line set by the oddsmakers. Yes, the Storm are the defending champs and yes, Atlanta is coming off a 20-point drubbing at the hands of a middling Minnnesota squad - its second straight loss at the hands of the Lynx. However, I fully expect to see the Dream get up for this game. Despite the consecutive losses in Minnesota, Atlanta has been playing better lately, going 5-1 ATS over its last six contests. While losing guard Chennedy Carter to injury hurt, we've seen highly-touted draft pick Aari McDonald finally start to acclimate herself to the offense in recent games, most recently scoring a season-high 15 points in consecutive games against the Lynx. Meanwhile, Tiffany Hayes has scored 20+ points in four of her last five games and Cheyenne Parker, the Dream's big offseason acquisition, is rounding back into form after contributing 19 minutes and 12 points last time out. Seattle is coming off a hard-fought 1-1 split in a two-game set against the Dallas Wings at home and checks in just 1-5 ATS over its last five contests. I'll grab the generous helping of points with a Dream squad that despite its early-season struggles, hasn't lost three games in a row yet this season. Take Atlanta (10*). | |||||||
06-09-21 | Diamondbacks v. A's -210 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oakland over Arizona at 3:35 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the A's in the opener of this series last night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here on Wednesday afternoon. Matt Peacock will take the ball for the D'Backs. He's been good but certainly not great in four previous starts this season and now pitches on just four days' rest for the second straight start. Note that with Peacock averaging only five innings per start on the road we'll likely see plenty of an Arizona bullpen that has recorded a 4.55 ERA and 1.42 WHIP on the road this season, converting just three of 10 save opportunities along the way. Sean Manaea will counter for Oakland. The A's have gone 6-1 in his seven home starts this season where he owns a 3.37 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Note that Manaea checks in sporting a sparkling 0.87 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over his last three outings and starts on six days' rest today. Behind Manaea is an A's 'pen that has posted a collective 4.33 ERA and 1.32 WHIP with nine converted saves and just one blown save opportunity here at home this season. Take Oakland (9*). | |||||||
06-09-21 | Israel v. Portugal -1.5 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Portugal -1.5 goals over Israel at 2:45 pm et on Wednesday. We won with Portugal +0.5 in its last match against Spain and will go back to the well with A Selecao here as it draws a more favorable match against Israel ahead of its Euro opener against Hungary next Tuesday. We certainly didn't see Portugal's 'A' squad against La Roja last week. I suspect we'll see something closer to it here on Wednesday, however, even if Cristiano Ronaldo is likely to only make a cameo appearance (if he plays at all). Note that while Israel is coming off consecutive victories, scoring a whopping seven goals in the process, those came against the likes of Moldova and Montenegro. The fact that it conceded a goal in each of those contests was somewhat discouraging. Note that the last two times Israel stepped up in class it failed to find the back of the net against Denmark and the Czech Republic. I suspect it will have a difficult time breaking down a tremendous Portugal defense here as well. A Selecao certainly wants to head into the Euros on a positive note and consecutive clean sheets would do exactly that. On the flip side, regardless whether Ronaldo is on the pitch, I expect Portugal to go on the attack in this match - unlike what we saw against Spain when it didn't record a shot on target until the closing minutes. Prior to that 0-0 draw, Portugal had tallied nine goals in its last four matches. It should only be a matter of time before it puts its stamp on this one as well. Take Portugal -1.5 goals (10*). | |||||||
06-08-21 | Golden Knights v. Avalanche -144 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -144 | 24 h 52 m | Show |
NHL West Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Colorado over Vegas at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. The home team has dominated this series, going a perfect 4-0 so far and I look for that trend to continue on Tuesday night. After all, the Avs have gone an incredible 25-6 on home ice this season, outscoring the opposition by an average of 2.2 goals per contest. Note that Colorado is a perfect 10-0 when at home revenging a loss against an opponent this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 3.4 goals (!). The Avs are also 24-8 when revenging a loss against an opponent by two goals or more over the last two seasons and 25-12 when revenging a loss against an opponent in which they scored one goal or less over the last three seasons. There aren't many situations where the Golden Knights own a losing record in recent years but here's one - they're just 11-16 when coming off a win by four goals or more over the last three seasons. This will be the 13th meeting between these two teams this season and the Knights have yet to win three consecutive matchups with the Avs. Look for that to hold true on Tuesday. Take Colorado (10*). | |||||||
06-08-21 | Blue Jays v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams are better known for their offense but it's been their pitching that has really shone so far this season. Robbie Ray will take the ball for Toronto on Tuesday. He checks in sporting a 3.06 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over his last three starts. While he does own an ERA north of four on the road, the 'under' has still cashed in three of his five outings away from home. The White Sox have of course dominated left-handed starting pitching in recent years, however it's worth noting that they've scored a grand total of just nine runs in their last three games against southpaw starters. The 'under' is actually 10-7 when they face left-handed starters this season. Behind Ray is a Jays bullpen that has been terrific on the road this season, posting a collective 2.52 ERA and 1.16 WHIP, converting nine saves while blowing only two. Carlos Rodon will counter for Chicago. The left-hander has been outstanding this season, particularly here at home where he owns a 2.02 ERA and a minuscule 0.56 WHIP in four starts, spanning 26 2/3 innings. The 'under' has gone 4-2 in Rodon's six nighttime starts, when he has recorded a 1.23 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. Note that the Blue Jays haven't seen Rodon since the 2018 season and in two previous games against him scored just four earned runs in 13 1/3 innings. Behind Rodon is a White Sox bullpen that has posted a collective 3.46 ERA and 1.09 WHIP at home this season. Take the under (9*). | |||||||
06-08-21 | Yankees -111 v. Twins | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Yankees are reeling off a series sweep at the hands of the rival Red Sox over the weekend but I expect them to get back on track on Tuesday night in Minnesota. Jordan Montgomery will take the ball for New York. He's struggled on the road this season, posting an ERA approaching six, yet the Yanks have still managed to win three of his five road outings. Perhaps that has something to do with their tremendous bullpen. With Montgomery averaging just 4 2/3 innings per start on the road we should see plenty of a Yankees bullpen that has recorded a collective 2.60 ERA and 0.96 WHIP on the road this season, converting nine saves while blowing only one. On a positive note regarding Montgomery he has posted a 2.43 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in seven nighttime starts this season. He'll be facing a Twins club that has gone just 7-13 and averaged 4.2 runs per game against left-handed starters this season. Michael Pineda gets the call for Minnesota. He kept the ball in the park for the first time in six starts last time out but still allowed five earned runs and was chased after just three innings, recording only one strikeout along the way. Much of his success has come in the daytime this season as he has recorded an ugly 6.75 ERA and 1.50 WHIP, albeit with a small sample size of just two nighttime starts. My biggest concern is that Pineda averages just 5 1/3 innings and the Twins bullpen has struggled, posting a collective 5.79 ERA and 1.53 WHIP at night this season. The Minnesota 'pen has converted only six saves while blowing five here at home. Take New York (9*). | |||||||
06-08-21 | Mariners +107 v. Tigers | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
MLB A.L. Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle over Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Mariners have quietly started hitting lately, scoring five runs or more in five of their last seven games entering Tuesday's series-opener against the Tigers. They'll have a good opportunity to keep it rolling at the plate as they faced Tigers struggling starter Matt Boyd on Tuesday. Boyd has posted an 8.59 ERA and 1.84 WHIP over his last three starts. While he does still own solid numbers here at home, the Tigers have actually only managed to win two of his six starts at Comerica Park. With Boyd averaging less than five innings per start over his last three outings that means we'll likely see plenty of the Tigers bullpen that has posted a collective 5.63 ERA and 1.60 WHIP at night this season. Marco Gonzales gets the start for the Mariners - his second since returning from the injured list. He didn't really get stretched too far in his first start back, allowing just one earned run in four innings against the A's last week. Now he's had six days off since that outing and should be able to work a little deeper into this contest. Gonzales' overall numbers are skewed by a couple of bad starts to open the campaign. He checks in having allowed just six earned runs over his last four starts, spanning 22 innings of work. While the Mariners bullpen hasn't been great this season, I'm not convinced the light-hitting Tigers can take advantage. Seattle relievers have posted a collective 4.65 ERA at night this season but a positive correction should be in order as they've actually recorded a solid 1.28 WHIP under the lights. Take Seattle (10*). | |||||||
06-08-21 | Hawks v. 76ers UNDER 223 | Top | 102-118 | Win | 100 | 22 h 9 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Philadelphia at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. We missed with the 'under' in the opener of this series on Sunday but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Tuesday night. After taking two of three regular season meetings, the 76ers may have got caught taking the Hawks lightly in the series-opener. They got smacked in the mouth early in that game and didn't really recover until the fourth quarter when it was too little, too late. Here, I do expect to see the Sixers bounce back, particularly at the defensive end of the floor. Note that the last three times they allowed an opponent to shoot better than 50% from the field they responded by holding their next opponent to 90, 97 and 95 points, with none of those three contests eclipsing the total we're dealing with tonight. Meanwhile, thanks to a fourth quarter lapse, the Hawks allowed the Sixers to shoot better than 54% from the field in Game 1. Keep in mind, prior to that game they had held eight straight opponents to 44.7% shooting or worse. Note that the 'under' is 23-7 the last 30 times the Hawks have been leading a playoff series. The 'under' is also 35-17 with the 76ers playing at home following a game that totaled 235 points or more. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
06-08-21 | Hawks v. 76ers -5.5 | 102-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Atlanta at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. This line is moving in the wrong direction as far as I'm concerned. The 76ers clearly took the Hawks lightly in the opener of this series on Sunday, falling behind big early as the Hawks simply couldn't miss in the first half. They did rally to make a game of it, however, showing a bit of Atlanta's inexperience in the process. Here, I look for the Sixers to bounce back with a convincing win. Note that Philadelphia has gone 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games as a home favorite of six points or less, as is the case here at the time of writing, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 9.9 points. Better still, the Sixers are 21-8 ATS at home after losing two of their last three games, outscoring opponents by 12.7 points on average in that situation over the last three seasons. Atlanta is still a losing team on the road this season at 19-21 and checks in 20-34 ATS after winning consecutive games ATS over the last three seasons, outscored by 5.8 points on average in that spot. Take Philadelphia (10*). | |||||||
06-08-21 | Rockies v. Marlins -175 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami over Colorado at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. These two teams appear headed in opposite directions right now with the Rockies having won four of their last six games while the Marlins have dropped nine of their last 10 overall. I'll take a flyer on the Fish here, however, as they're set up well against a Colorado club that has gone a miserable 4-22 on the road this season. Antonio Senzatela will take the ball for the Rockies. He has struggled in three road starts this season, posting a 7.14 ERA and 2.03 WHIP with the Rockies losing all three of those outings. With Senzatela averaging less than four innings per start on the road we should see plenty of the Rockies bullpen, which has recorded a 4.56 ERA and 1.49 WHIP while blowing three saves and converting only two this season. We played the 'over' in Pablo Lopez's last start, cashing that ticket with relative ease as he struggled on the road against the Blue Jays. Lopez has shown a strong home-road dichotomy this season. Here at home he has posted an incredible 0.98 ERA and 0.87 WHIP and we're not talking about a very small sample size as he's made six starts here, spanning 36 2/3 innings. With Lopez averaging over six innings per start at home we might not need a whole lot of help from the Marlins bullpen but it's worth noting that they've posted a collective 3.20 ERA and 1.07 WHIP here at home this season. Take Miami (10*). | |||||||
06-08-21 | Braves v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | Top | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
N.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. I'm anticipating a relatively high-scoring affair as the Braves and Phillies renew their rivalry in Philadelphia on Tuesday night. Drew Smyly will take the ball for Atlanta. To say he's been awful lately would be an understatement as he has posted a 7.47 ERA and 1.41 WHIP over his last three outings. Of course, that's about par for the course for Smyly in nighttime starts this season, when he has recorded a 7.05 ERA and 1.40 WHIP, with the 'over' cashing at a 5-1 clip in his six outings. Now he faces a Phillies lineup that will be getting a second look at him this season after they tagged him for five earned runs in five innings in a wild 7-6 Sunday night victory earlier this season. Behind Smyly is a Braves bullpen that has posted a collective 5.19 ERA and 1.60 WHIP on the road this season. Aaron Nola will counter for Philadelphia. He's been terrific at home this season but much of his success has been in the daytime. In eight night starts this season he has recorded a 4.84 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. The biggest issue here is that the Braves will be seeing Nola for the third time this season. In their second look at him they chased him after he allowed five earned runs in four innings. Nola has failed to last more than five innings in three of his last five outings and that means we should see plenty of a Phillies bullpen that has recorded a 4.81 ERA and 1.35 WHIP at home this season. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
06-08-21 | Lynx v. Mystics OVER 166 | 81-85 | Push | 0 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Washington at 7 pm et on Tuesday. We've cashed with the 'over' in each of Minnesota's last two games. In fact, we've won in three straight Lynx games, also hitting with them in their overtime victory over Connecticut three games back. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the 'over' as the oddsmakers continue to have a tough time adjusting these WNBA totals. The Lynx have scored 186 points over their last two games and figure to stay hot against a vulnerable Washington defense that has allowed six straight opponents to shoot better than 43% from the field, giving up 86 points or more in four of those contests. The good news for Washington is that its offense has come around, scoring over 80 points in three straight games. The Mystics might just have something in Myisha Hines-Allen, who has poured in 58 points in her last three games, while recording a double-double in all three contests. Ariel Atkins has also stepped up in the absence of Elena Delle-Donne, contributing at least 30 minutes in three straight games while scoring 67 points over that stretch (note that she is questionable to play on Tuesday due to a back injury). Meanwhile, the Lynx are getting production from all over the court right now. They had five players score in double-figures last time out as they dropped 100 points on the Dream. Kayla McBride continues to get better acclimated with the offense with each passing game and comes off a season-high 19 points last time out. Napheesa Collier has provided a big boost as well since returning to the lineup, averaging over 16 points per game to go along with four assists per game. Note that Minnesota has allowed north of 80 points in both previous road games this season, allowing the opposition to shoot 46.8% from the field. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
06-08-21 | Lightning v. Hurricanes UNDER 5.5 | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and Carolina at 6:35 pm et on Tuesday. This will be the 13th meeting between these two teams this season and we've yet to see the 'over' cash in consecutive matchups. Off Saturday's wild, high-scoring 6-4 Lightning victory (we won with Tampa Bay in that game), we'll back the 'under' in Tuesday's elimination game in Carolina. Note that the 'under' is a perfect 5-0 the last seven times the Lightning have attempted to close out a series, with those contests averaging just 3.8 total goals. Meanwhile, the 'under' is a perfect 7-0 with the Canes playing at home after losing two of their last three games this season, with those games also averaging a total of just 3.8 goals. It's also worth noting that the 'under' has gone 12-5 with the Lightning coming off a home win by two goals or more this season and 25-11 with Carolina playing at home off a loss against a division opponent over the last two seasons. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
06-08-21 | Albania v. Czech Republic OVER 1.5 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 17 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Albania and Czech Republic at 2:15 pm et on Tuesday. | |||||||
06-07-21 | Royals v. Angels OVER 9 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Kansas City and Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Monday. We saw a low-scoring game involving the Royals yesterday as they fell by a 2-1 score in the finale of a four-game set against the Twins. Prior to that the 'over' had gone 7-0-2 over their last nine contests. I expect a return to form here as they head to Anaheim to take on the Angeles. Jackson Kowar will make his highly-anticipated debut for Kansas City on Monday. Of course, in today's MLB it's unlikely we'll see the Royals stretch out one of their top prospects too much in his first big league start. That likely leaves plenty of work for a Kansas City bullpen that owns a collective 4.64 ERA and 1.49 WHIP at night this season. Keep in mind, the Angels have been a much better offensive team here at home, where they average nearly 5.5 runs per game this season. Dylan Bundy will counter for Los Angeles. The wheels have fallen off for Bundy following a strong start to the season and he's likely to struggle again here as the Royals get their second look at him this season. Bundy has posted an awful 7.94 ERA and 1.50 WHIP at home this season. He's been hit hard in four nighttime starts as well, recording a 6.75 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. With Bundy averaging just 4.5 innings per start here at home we should see plenty of the Angels bullpen that got lit up yesterday after entering the game sporting a collective 4.82 ERA and 1.45 WHIP with six blown saves compared to seven converted here at home this season. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
06-07-21 | Jets v. Canadiens UNDER 5.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Winnipeg and Montreal at 8:05 pm et on Monday. Last night's game between these two teams crept 'over' the total only thanks to a late empty net goal. Note that now we find the Habs in a situation where the 'under' has gone 7-1 this season when coming off a home win in which they scored four goals or more this season. The 'under' is also 31-14 the last 45 times the Jets have been on the road seeking revenge for a loss where their opponent scored five goals or more, as is the case here. We can certainly anticipate the Jets tightening things up here as they desperately try to stave off elimination and get the series back to Winnipeg for Game 5. Note that we've yet to see the Canadiens post consecutive 'over' results in these playoffs with the 'under' cashing at a 6-4 clip overall. Since head coach Dominique Ducharme took over for Claude Julien, we've seen the 'under' go 9-2 with the Habs coming off a home victory this season with those games totaling just 4.8 goals on average. Take the under (9*). | |||||||
06-07-21 | Bucks v. Nets OVER 233.5 | 86-125 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Brooklyn at 7:35 pm et on Monday. The Bucks are going to have to perform much better offensively than they did in Game 1 if they want to have any shot at upsetting the Nets in this series. I expect them to put forth a stronger showing here in Game 2 and a more competitive game should lend itself to the 'over'. Note that Game 1 was headed well north of the lofty total before the Nets took their foot off the gas with a big lead in the fourth quarter. The first three quarters totaled 62, 62 and 58 points - good for a full-game pace of 242.7 points. The fourth quarter totaled only 40 points. Now we're seeing a considerable overreaction in the Game 2 total, partly due to Game 1 being lower-scoring than expected, but also due to James Harden being sidelined for the Nets. Brooklyn is certainly used to playing without its 'Big Three' fully intact, however, and I expect it to still thrive offensively in this one. If anything, Harden's absence should only make Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving more aggressive in their shot selection. Keep in mind, two of three regular season matchups between these two teams totaled north of 240 points. Expect a return to form here. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
06-07-21 | Islanders v. Bruins -179 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -179 | 21 h 23 m | Show |
NHL East Division Playoff Game of the Year. My selection is on Boston over New York at 6:35 pm et on Monday. New York evened up this series with a convincing 4-1 victory at a raucous Nassau Coliseum on Saturday. Now I look for the Bruins to take back control of the series as the scene shifts back to Boston on Monday. Note that Boston is 13-1 when playing at home after scoring one goal or less in their last game over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.8 goals in that situation. Meanwhile, the Islanders average a miserable 1.9 goals per game when on the road after a home win against a division opponent over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 0.5 goals in that spot. The Bruins are 20-11 on home ice this season where they average an impressive 3.4 goals per game. Look for the Isles to once again have a tough time keeping pace on Monday night. Take Boston (10*). | |||||||
06-07-21 | Islanders v. Bruins OVER 5 | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Boston at 6:35 pm et on Monday. The Islanders were able to do a reasonable job of holding down the Bruins 'perfection line' in two games on Long Island but I expect a different story to unfold on Monday in Boston. The Bruins have of course been a much higher-scoring team at home this season, where they average 3.4 goals per game. We saw that in the first two games in this series as they put eight goals in the Isles net. New York knows that it's not going to stop the B's top line here in Beantown - it needs to keep pace with an aggressive offensive effort the likes of which we saw back in Game 2. Interestingly, the B's have been a slightly weaker defensive team at home this season, where they allow 2.5 goals per contest. While the Isles average just 2.2 goals per game on the road this season, we've seen a much different story in these playoffs as they've put up 14 goals in five road contests. Take the over (9*). | |||||||
06-07-21 | Cyprus v. Ukraine -1 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Ukraine -1 goal over Cyprus at 12 noon et on Monday. We won with Ukraine in last week's 1-0 victory over Northern Ireland and I won't hesitate to go back to the well here, this time laying a goal to get a more reasonable price. While the final scoreline was 1-0, the damage could have been much worse as Ukraine missed a number of prime opportunities to extend its lead, particularly in the first half of that most recent match. All told, Ukraine made 18 shot attempts with four hitting the target. While it did get put back on its heels for a stretch in the second half, I'm not convinced Cyprus has the same ability to do so here. Note that Cyprus has managed to score just a single goal in its last five matches and will have to be careful here after losing defender Andreas Karo to injury in its match against Hungary last week. While Cyprus has proven to be a tough defensive squad, I expect Ukraine's duo of Yaremchuk and Zinchenko (he didn't see the field in its last match after playing in the Champions League Final days earlier) to find some success here, with Yaremchuk building off a strong showing against Northern Ireland last week. While the result here is of little consequence given that it is simply an international friendly, a positive showing should be important to Ukraine ahead of a very difficult Euro opener against the Netherlands coming up in a week. With Austria also lurking in its group, it will need to hit the ground running heading into the tournament and I'm confident we'll see Andriy Shevchenko field his 'A' squad for this tune-up. Take Ukraine -1 goal (10*). | |||||||
06-06-21 | Dream v. Lynx OVER 163 | 80-100 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Minnesota at 7 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in this matchup on Friday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play in Sunday's rematch. I noted on Friday that Atlanta was waiting for highly-touted draft pick Aari McDonald to get going offensively and we finally saw it last time out as the shot 5-of-12 from the field and scored a career-high 15 points. Even with Chennedy Carter sidelined, the Dream still have plenty of scoring options and should find continued success offensively on Sunday. The Lynx got off to a slow start this season but have gotten back on track over their last couple of games and should certainly be encouraged by Friday's performance, in which Napheesa Collier poured in 26 points in just her third game back in the lineup. Kayla McBride also turned in one of her best performances of the young season, scoring 17 points on 6-of-13 shooting. This has the makings of another relatively high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
06-06-21 | Jets v. Canadiens UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -135 | 34 h 5 m | Show |
NHL North Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Winnipeg and Montreal at 6:05 pm et on Sunday. While the first game in this series was high-scoring, both teams settled into a defensive affair in Friday's 1-0 Canadiens victory. I don't think either team believes it needs to score more than 2-3 goals to secure victories in this series and for Winnipeg this is obviously as close to a must-win without being exactly that as it gets. Carey Price is locked in right now and it seems that whenever the Jets go down a key scorer up front (ie. Nik Ehlers or Blake Wheeler during the regular season and now Mark Scheifele) its secondary options struggle to pick up the slack. The Jets were never really threatened in their own end in Game 2 apart from Tyler Toffoli's short-handed marker, which was a pretty bad goal for Connor Hellebuyck to allow in a critical situation down a game in this series. I do think Hellebuyck is capable of stealing a game for the Jets though, even if their offense fails to show up once again. With all of that being said, the days of 5.5's may be numbered in this series. I'm banking on another relatively low-scoring affair on Sunday in Montreal. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
06-06-21 | Jets +1.5 v. Canadiens | 1-5 | Loss | -199 | 34 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Winnipeg +1.5 goals over Montreal at 6:05 pm et on Sunday. The Jets had every opportunity to get back in this series on Friday night but couldn't solve Carey Price and now head to Montreal down two games ahead of Sunday's Game 3 clash. I do expect to see Winnipeg's best effort on Sunday as it knows that it can ill afford to dig itself an 0-3 hole, much like Carolina against Tampa earlier this week. The Canadiens have now reeled off five consecutive victories since going down 3-1 against the Leafs in round one but as well as they're playing, I believe that streak is on borrowed time. I still feel this has the makings of a long series, while the Canadiens owned the opener, Winnipeg just as easily could have prevailed on Friday night. Extended success against the Jets hasn't been commonplace for the Habs and Winnipeg knows it can steal a game in Montreal. As I've noted time and time again, home ice just doesn't mean quite as much in the NHL Playoffs compared to other sports. While we're being asked to pay a tariff to back the Jets with an insurance goal on Sunday, I believe the price could be even higher. Take Winnipeg +1.5 goals (10*). | |||||||
06-06-21 | Mavs v. Clippers UNDER 215 | 111-126 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Los Angeles at 3:35 pm et on Sunday. This has turned into a low-scoring series over the last three games and I anticipate more of the same in Sunday's Game 7 matchup in Los Angeles. This is going to be a tough spot for Mavs superstar Luka Doncic as he comes off two straight 40+ minute performances and plays for the third time in five days while still dealing with that neck strain. Both teams have proven capable of tightening things up in crunch time, going back-and-forth over the last three games in this series. With the road team having dominated, this is obviously the Mavs turn to step up, but I do think they'll be met with a strong defensive effort from the Clips here. On the flip side, the Los Angeles offense led by Kawhi Leonard and Paul George hasn't given us much reason to trust it here at Staples Center in this series. Luka gets all of the headlines but the Mavs can play some defense as well and will undoubtedly show up off of Friday's fourth quarter meltdown. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
06-06-21 | Tigers v. White Sox OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
A.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and Chicago at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. I'll call for a high-scoring game at Guaranteed Rate Field on Sunday afternoon. The White Sox will be getting their second look at Tigers right-hander Jose Urena this season. He did last seven innings in a 5-2 victory against them back in late April but it's not as if he was dominant. Urena gave up seven hits, walked three and struck out only two over those seven frames. Note that he owns a 5.34 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in six daytime starts this season. Likewise, the Tigers 'pen has struggled in daytime appearances, recording a collective 4.90 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. Worse still, the Detroit bullpen entered yesterday's action sporting a 6.46 ERA and 1.66 WHIP on the road this season. Dylan Cease will counter for Chicago. The Tigers will be seeing him for the fourth time since last August. Cease has posted an ERA near eight to go along with a 1.76 WHIP over his last three outings. He also owns a less than impressive 1.60 WHIP in four daytime starts this season. The White Sox bullpen has posted a collective 4.59 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in day games this season. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
06-06-21 | Hawks v. 76ers UNDER 220.5 | Top | 128-124 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 36 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Philadelphia at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. Regardless whether Joel Embiid is able to suit up for the 76ers or not, I like the way the 'under' sets up in Game 1 in this Eastern Conference semi-final series on Sunday. The Hawks cruised past the Knicks in round one but should find the going much tougher against the 76ers in round two. Note that Philadelphia checks in 32-7 at home this season where it has held opponents to 45% shooting this season. The 76ers have been locked in defensively for quite some time, having allowed just two opponents to shoot better than 50% from the field going all the way back to April 26th. I'm not convinced the pace alone in this series is going to get many games up into the 220's. While the 'over' has cashed in each of the Sixers last three games, we haven't seen the 'over' cash in four straight games involving Philadelphia since way back in late February-early March when it posted a four-game 'over' streak. The Hawks, meanwhile, are a better defensive squad than most give them credit for. Trae Young and his sharp-shooting abilities grabs the headlines, but this team can play some 'D', as evidenced by the fact that it has held eight straight opponents to 44.7% shooting or worse entering this series. After allowing 126 and 127 points in consecutive losses to the Sixers here in Philadelphia in late April, you can be sure Nate McMillan's squad will be hyper-focused on keeping the Sixers offense in check here. I simply feel we're going to see a much different series than we saw between Philadelphia and Washington, which was high-scoring in nature. Note that the 'under' cashed in two of three regular season meetings between these two teams. The Hawks check in sporting a 26-44 o/u mark when revenging consecutive double-digit losses against an opponent, as is the case here. The 'under' is also 35-16 with the 76ers playing at home after a game that saw 235 points or more. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
06-06-21 | Greece +0.5 v. Norway | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Greece +0.5 goals over Norway at 12 noon et on Sunday. The presence of Erling Haaland will have many rushing to back the Norwegians in this friendly match on Sunday. However, after Norway was only able to break down the likes of Luxembourg for one goal last time out I believe it will be hard-pressed to come away victorious against a Greece side that actually brings solid form to the table. Greece has in fact gone undefeated in its last nine matches including a 1-1 draw against top-ranked Belgium earlier this week. While the Belgians were missing a number of key players in that match, it was still another encouraging result for this gritty Greece side. We're not asking for it to work any miracles here, but I do expect Greece to find a little more success disseminating a vulnerable Norwegian defense and ultimately keep this match level at the very least. Take Greece +0.5 goals (10*). | |||||||
06-05-21 | Bucks +4 v. Nets | 107-115 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee plus the points over Brooklyn at 7:35 pm et on Saturday. Travelling this weekend so my apologies for the somewhat brief analysis for this play. Let’s take a shot with the Bucks here as we go against the narrative that the Nets are invincible after taking care of the Celtics with ease in the opening round. This does promise to be a long, hard-fought series after the Bucks ‘slayed the dragon’ so to speak by taking down last year’s playoff nemesis, the Miami Heat, in an opening round sweep. The Nets have gone with a smaller lineup since dealing rim protector Jarrett Allen and I do think that leaves them vulnerable against a Bucks squad that crashes the boards relentlessly. Take Milwaukee (10*). | |||||||
06-05-21 | Red Sox v. Yankees -120 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
MLB on FOX Game of the Month. My selection is on New York over Boston at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. The Red Sox took the opener of this series last night but I like the Yankees to answer back on Saturday in the Bronx. Eduardo Rodriguez will get the call for Boston. He's been downright awful on the road this season, posting a 6.42 ERA and 1.72 WHIP. Over his last three outings he has recorded a dreadful 9.88 ERA and 2.12 WHIP. Behind Rodriguez is a Red Sox bullpen that has recorded a collective 4.32 ERA and 1.44 WHIP on the road this season, with that WHIP climbing to 2.02 over their last seven games entering last night's action. Jameson Taillon will counter for New York. He hasn't been particularly sharp this season but has been at his best here at home where he owns a 2.90 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. The Yankees bullpen has been terrific this season, posting a collective 2.84 ERA and 1.14 WHIP at home (entering last night's contest). In night games, Yankees relievers have been even better, with a 1.98 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. Take New York (10*). | |||||||
06-05-21 | Hurricanes v. Lightning -152 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Carolina at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. The Hurricanes were clearly the more desperate team in Game 3 of this series and ultimately skated away with a 3-2 overtime victory on a power play goal in the first extra period. Here, I look for the Lightning to punch back. We won with the Canes (on the puck-line) in Game 3 so the fact that they pulled off the 'upset' didn't come as a surprise. It was very unlikely Carolina was going to go away quietly in this series. However, the Canes are in a tougher spot here on Saturday, unable to gain the same mental boost from the goalie change to Petr Mrazek and quite possibly without one of their best players in Vincent Trocheck once again. While there's a chance Trocheck will return, how effective he can be remains to be seen. Note that the Lightning are an incredible 57-22 when coming off a loss over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.0 goal per game on average. They've also taken five of the last eight meetings between these two teams in Tampa. Take Tampa Bay (10*). | |||||||
06-05-21 | Indians v. Orioles UNDER 8.5 | 10-4 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Baltimore at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. This one sets up well as a low-scoring affair on Saturday afternoon at Camden Yards. Aaron Civale will take the ball for the Indians. He's been solid in six road starts this season, posting a 3.35 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. Note that he'll have the advantage of facing the Orioles for the first time in his career on Saturday. Behind Civale is a bullpen that has recorded a collective 2.52 ERA and 1.22 WHIP on the road this season converting 11 saves compared to just one blown save. IN day games, they've been even better, posting a 1.89 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. John Means will counter for Baltimore. Means of course threw a no-hitter in Seattle earlier this season. He owns a sparkling 1.60 ERA and 0.64 WHIP in six daytime starts this season. He has faced the Indians twice in his career, allowing just three earned runs in 10 innings, however they haven't got a look at him since the 2019 season. Behind Means is an Orioles bullpen that has been at its best in the daytime, recording a collective 3.69 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
06-05-21 | Nationals +1.5 v. Phillies | 2-5 | Loss | -165 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington +1.5 runs over Philadelphia at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. The Nats' are a small underdog (at the time of writing) on Saturday, allowing us to grab the insurance run in a spot where I believe they have an edge. Joe Ross will get the start for Washington. While he's struggled for the most part this season, day games haven't been an issue as he's posted a 1.75 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in five afternoon outings. Ross averages less than five innings per start but behind him is a Nationals bullpen that has also fared very well in day games, recording a collective 2.49 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with four converted saves compared to just one blown. Spencer Howard will counter for Philadelphia. He has made just two starts this season and has yet to work beyond the fourth inning. Note that the Nationals will be getting their second look at Howard since last August. We're likely to see plenty of the Phillies 'pen on this day, and that relief corps has struggled here at home this season, posting a 5.14 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. Take Washington +1.5 runs (10*). | |||||||
06-05-21 | Sky +5 v. Sparks | Top | 63-68 | Push | 0 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
WNBA Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Los Angeles at 3 pm et on Saturday. We just missed with the Sky in their last game as they blew a late five-point fourth quarter lead before dropping a three-point decision in overtime - their second straight heartbreaking loss at the hands of the Phoenix Mercury. Here, they'll continue their road trip against a Sparks squad that is off a blowout win against the lowly Fever, but play without a number of key players. While Los Angeles gets bit by the injury bug, Chicago gets healthier. The Sky welcomed back Allie Quigley and Stefanie Dolson last game and while both played limited minutes, they both contributed and I expect both to make even more of an impact on Saturday. Chicago isn't off to the start it had hoped for this season but there's obviously plenty of time to turn things around. This is a key spot and I look for the Sky to come up big. Take Chicago (10*). | |||||||
06-05-21 | Albania v. Wales OVER 2 | 0-0 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Albania and Wales at 12 noon et on Saturday. I'll take a shot with the 'over' in this pre-Euro international friendly between Wales and Albania. Wales is coming off a poor showing against France earlier this week. Keep in mind, France sent its 'A' squad to the pitch in that match and Wales was forced down a man after defender Neco Williams was sent off due to a handball early on. Here, Wales will certainly be looking to rebound leading into a very tough group at the Euros beginning next week. I do think the Welsh can break through offensively against an Albania squad that has little experience at keeper. On the flip side, Williams' absence will be felt and I'm confident the Albanians can solve the Welsh form for at least a goal in this one. A 2-1 result is well within the realm of possibility in this one. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
06-04-21 | Clippers -2.5 v. Mavs | 104-97 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Dallas at 9:05 pm et on Friday. The road team has won all five games in this series so far but perhaps that shouldn't come as a big surprise as both teams have proven to be 'road warriors' this season with the Clippers going 23-15 and the Mavs posting a 24-15 record away from home. I look for that trend to continue on Friday as this will be the only first round series that goes the full seven games. Los Angeles actually falls into an excellent situation here having gone 14-2 ATS, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 18.5 points (!), after losing five or six of its last seven games ATS over the last two seasons (as is the case here). The Clips are 34-20 ATS after a loss of any kind over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 10.5 points on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Mavs check in a miserable 6-17 ATS when returning home off a road win over the last two seasons, outscored by a considerable average margin of 6.5 points. The fourth win in a series is generally the toughest one to get (don't tell that to the Suns) and I expect the Mavs to find that out on Friday night. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
06-04-21 | Reds v. Cardinals OVER 8 | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
N.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and St. Louis at 8:15 pm et on Friday. This one sets up nicely as a high-scoring affair after last night's low-scoring 4-2 Reds victory in the series-opener. Luis Castillo will somewhat inexplicably get another turn in the Reds rotation despite his massive struggles this season. Castillo has posted an 8.73 ERA and 1.81 WHIP on the road this season lasting less than five innings per start. The Cards have already seen him twice this season, lighting him up to the tune of 12 earned runs on 14 hits in just 8 1/3 innings. Behind Castillo is a dreadful Reds bullpen that entered last night's game sporting a collective 8.28 ERA and 1.88 WHIP on the road this season. Kwang-Hyun Kim will counter for St. Louis. He's labored through his last three starts, posting a 5.14 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. He has actually pitched quite well at home, however, and those last three outings came on the road. But here's my concern; Kim averages just under 4 2/3 innings per start this season. The Cardinals bullpen has not been good, entering last night's game with a 6.21 ERA and 1.83 WHIP over their last seven contests. They own a 5.11 ERA and 1.52 WHIP at night this season. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
06-04-21 | Twins v. Royals OVER 9.5 | 5-14 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Friday. This is one of the highest totals on Friday's MLB board but it's high for a reason (a number of reasons actually). Last night's series opener was of the high-scoring variety as the Royals prevailed by a 6-5 score. I'm anticipating more of the same here. Matt Shoemaker will get the nod for the visiting Twins. He's not set up well here as he faces the Royals for the third time this season, having had very little success against them, allowing 13 earned runs on 14 hits over just 7 2/3 innings. Shoemaker has pitched better on the road than he has at home this season but that's not really saying much. The 'over' has still gone a perfect 3-0 in his three road outings. Behind Shoemaker is a Twins bullpen that has posted a collective 5.79 ERA and 1.56 WHIP at night this season. On the road, Twins relievers have recorded a 5.16 ERA and 1.49 WHIP, converting just six of 10 save opportunities. Brad Keller will counter for Kansas City. He'll be facing the Twins for the third time this season as well. He hasn't struggled quite as badly as Shoemaker but has still been hit hard, allowing five earned runs on 11 hits over 9 1/3 innings. He's been dreadful in five home starts this season, recording an 8.10 ERA and 1.85 WHIP, with the 'over' cashing in three of those five outings. The Royals bullpen has pitched well lately but still owns a less than impressive 4.31 ERA and 1.35 WHIP while converting only seven of 12 save opportunities here at home this season. Take the over (9*). | |||||||
06-04-21 | Dream v. Lynx OVER 162.5 | Top | 84-86 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
WNBA Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Minnesota at 8 pm et on Friday. Minnesota has yet to break 80 points in a game this season but I look for that streak to end on Friday night as the Lynx host the Atlanta Dream. It's really only a matter of time before this supremely-talented Lynx squad gets rolling offensively. Offseason acquisition Kayla McBride has yet to really emerge as the scoring threat she was in Las Vegas but it's coming. Note that she has still managed to score in double-figures in four of five games this season. Meanwhile, they welcomed back Napheesa Collier two games back and she's contributed 25 points to go along with eight assists since returning. Here, I expect the Lynx to take advantage of a below-average Dream defense. Atlanta checks in off three straight 'over' results even though the most recent was aided by overtime last Saturday in New York (we won with the Dream in that game). Atlanta's offense has slowly come around this season and while losing sharp-shooting guard Chennedy Carter to injury hurts, they are expected to welcome back big offseason acquisition Cheyenne Parker from Covid protocols on Friday. I also expect highly-touted draft pick Aari McDonald, who has struggled in the early stages of her WNBA career, to pick up some of the slack, likely receiving more playing time in Carter's absence. Note that three of the last five meetings in this series have gone 'over' the total, including the most recent matchup which reached 167 points on August 28th of last year. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
06-04-21 | Canadiens v. Jets -114 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -114 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
NHL Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Winnipeg over Montreal at 7:35 pm et on Friday. One would think the Jets would be at a major disadvantage here, not only down 1-0 in the series but now also without one of their best players in Mark Scheifele after his bone-headed decision to charge Jake Evans for a vicious hit in the final minute of Game 1. I actually feel his absence could be galvanizing in nature for this Jets squad that has faced plenty of adversity this season, while serving as more of a distraction for the Canadiens, who should be focused on trying to take a 2-0 stranglehold on this series rather than on exacting revenge for Scheifele's hit. Regardless, the Habs are set up poorly here having gone 1-7 after winning three straight games over the last two seasons, outscored by 1.6 goals on average in that situation. In a bit of a quirky trend, they're also a miserable 11-26 when playing their third straight road game over the last two seasons, allowing 3.3 goals per game in that spot. Finally, it's worth noting that they're 4-12 after consecutive wins by two or more goals over the last three seasons, giving up an average of 3.7 goals in that situation. For their part, the Jets are 11-4 when revenging a loss against an opponent this season and better still, 28-13 when revenging a loss where their opponent scored four or more goals over the last two seasons, averaging 3.2 goals per game in that spot. They've proven to be a terrific bounce-back team, going 24-12 following a loss to a division opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 0.8 goals on average. This will be the 11th meeting between these two teams this season and Montreal has yet to record three consecutive victories. I don't see it happening tonight either. Take Winnipeg (10*). | |||||||
06-04-21 | Dodgers v. Braves OVER 8.5 | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Friday. This matchup obviously features plenty of big bats and I expect Friday's series-opener to play out accordingly in spite of the solid starting pitching matchup. Julio Urias will take the ball for the Dodgers. It's worth noting that while his overall numbers are terrific, he has posted a less than impressive 4.58 ERA and 1.08 WHIP over his last three starts. He has also recorded a 4.33 ERA in six nighttime starts. His road numbers are admittedly terrific, however, much of his success away from home came early in the season when he faced the Rockies, Mariners and Brewers - three light-hitting teams - in his first three road starts. It is worth pointing out that his last three road starts have totaled 20, 11 and 16 runs. The Braves did get a chance to see Urias for the first time last October in a start where he lasted just five innings. Behind Urias is a Dodgers bullpen that has posted a collective 4.80 ERA and 1.57 WHIP on the road this season, with an equal number of saves and blown saves (7). Meanwhile, Ian Anderson will start for Atlanta. Like Urias, his overall numbers are terrific. However, I am a a little concerned that he's facing the Dodgers for the third time since last October (he started twice in their playoff series last year). Note that Los Angeles gave him some trouble, collecting six hits and two earned runs to go along with seven walks, with Anderson working only seven innings total in those two starts. With Anderson averaging less than six innings per start this season we should see plenty of an Atlanta bullpen that entered yesterday's action having posted a collective 4.50 ERA and 1.33 WHIP with six blown saves compared to only four successfully converted at home this season. Note that Braves relievers have recorded a 4.68 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 132 2/3 innings logged at night this season. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
06-04-21 | Astros v. Blue Jays -120 | Top | 13-1 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
MLB Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Toronto over Houston at 7:05 pm et on Friday. I'll back the Blue Jays at a short price with their ace on the hill on Friday night as they look to take the first step in avenging a series loss in Houston suffered earlier this season. Toronto is of course seeing the ball exceptionally well right now, hitting .302 as a team over its last seven games. Here it will face veteran right-hander Zack Greinke, who has admittedly been at his best on the road this season where he owns a 1.64 ERA and 0.73 WHIP in five starts this season. However, the Jays will be getting their second look at him in less than a month and did have plenty of success the last time they faced him on May 9th, knocking him out of the game after four innings after he gave up four earned runs on nine hits. Greinke will also be making his second straight start on just four days of rest. Note that working behind Greinke is an Astros bullpen that has posted a 4.89 ERA and 1.60 WHIP on the road this season, blowing seven saves compared to only four converted. Hyun-Jin ryu gets the start for the Jays. He's struggled a bit in his last two starts but should bounce back nicely here. He owns a 2.05 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in five night starts this season. While I say he's struggled in his last couple of outings, that's relatively speaking. He's actually still posted a 1.93 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over his last three starts, giving up four earned runs in 11 2/3 innings over his last two trips to the hill. Oddly enough, Ryu will be making his first career start against the Astros. The Toronto bullpen has been phenomenal of late, posting a collective 1.72 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 15 2/3 innings of work over their last seven games. While their home numbers leave a lot to be desired, it's worth noting that the Jays shifted to Sahlen Field in Buffalo for their home games earlier this week. In two games here, they've allowed just one earned run in 8 2/3 innings. I mentioned the Astros won a series against Toronto at home earlier this season. Note that Houston checks in just 11-12 on the road this season. Take Toronto (10*). | |||||||
06-04-21 | Czech Republic v. Italy UNDER 2.5 | 0-4 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Czech Republic and Italy at 2:45 pm et on Friday. Let's go with the 'under' in this intriguing international friendly match on Friday. Italy already has one pre-Euro tune-up under its belt after cruising to a 7-0 rout of San Marino last week. The Azzurri have now confirmed their squad for the Euros and may not have that same killer instinct here in this tricky match against Czech Republic. In a difficult group that includes Switzerland and Turkey, Italy will be looking to solidify its form and tighten things up defensively in this warm-up match. Keep in mind, the Italians also have some injury issues leading into this one. Health is obviously of utmost concern with kickoff to the Euros just one week away. For the Czechs this will be their first pre-tournament friendly match after their contest against Euro-bound Scotland was delayed due to Covid protocols. They've managed just one goal in their last two matches, that coming off the foot of midfielder Lukas Provod in an impressive 1-1 draw against Belgium, who won't be available for Friday's match due to a knee injury. Both sides would likely be satisfied with a level result in this one. However, I do feel the Czechs face an uphill battle breaking through against a more seasoned and organized Italian squad so rather than grab the goal with the underdogs, I'll go with the 'under' instead. Take the under (9*). | |||||||
06-04-21 | Portugal +0.25 v. Spain | 0-0 | Win | 50 | 7 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Portugal +0.5 goals over Spain at 1:30 pm et on Friday. | |||||||
06-03-21 | Suns v. Lakers OVER 207 | Top | 113-100 | Win | 100 | 17 h 37 m | Show |
NBA Elimination Game Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 10:35 pm et on Thursday. Game 5 managed to stay 'under' the total mostly due to its noncompetitive nature. The first quarter was actually fairly high-scoring but things got completely out of hand from there with Phoenix cruising to a 30-point victory. I'm certainly expecting a more competitive affair as the scene shifts back to Los Angeles for Game 6 on Thursday night. Note that the 'over' has gone 11-1 with the Suns coming off a win by 20 points or more this season with those contests totaling an average of 237.4 points. The 'over' is also 24-11 with Phoenix coming off two or more straight wins this season with those games averaging 225.2 total points. While there are a number of trends pointing to the 'under' when it comes to the Lakers, the majority of those trends have resulted in average totals north of the relatively low number we're working with here tonight. Note that Lakers home games have totaled an average of 217.9 points this season. That includes a number of games where they were without both Lebron James and Anthony Davis. While Davis' status for Thursday's game remains in question, I would expect him to play. Even if he can't go, I still like the way this one sets up as a relatively high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
06-03-21 | Suns v. Lakers -2 | Top | 113-100 | Loss | -104 | 16 h 26 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Phoenix at 10:35 pm et on Thursday. Everyone is down on the Lakers right now. Perhaps rightfully so after an ugly 30-point loss in Game 5 of this series two nights ago. Concerning for the Suns though is the fact that Chris Paul was forced to leave Tuesday's game after aggravating his shoulder injury. Now he'll be forced to play on just one day of rest once again - just as we saw between Games 2 and 3 when the Lakers rolled to a 14-point victory here at home. It was only after two off days that CP3 was able to turn in a stellar performance in last Sunday's key Game 4 victory here in Los Angeles. While Anthony Davis' status remains in question for Los Angeles I would expect him to play in this elimination game, although even if he can't go, I still like the Lakers at a short number here. Even with Lebron and AD in and out of the lineup this season, Los Angeles has still managed to go 23-16 here at home, outscoring the opposition by 3.5 points on average. Better still, the Lakers have outscored opponents by an average of 6.7 points as a favorite this season. Considering the Lakers closed as -6.5-point favorites in both Games 3 and 4 here at home, I believe we're dealing with an overreaction to the last two results in this series. AD's status certainly plays a factor as well but perhaps a little more than it should as the defending champs face elimination on Thursday. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
06-03-21 | Sky +2 v. Mercury | 74-77 | Loss | -112 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Phoenix at 10 pm et on Thursday. The Sky have a lot of room for improvement in this game after suffering a heart-breaking 84-83 loss on a buzzer-beating three from Kia Nurse two nights ago. Look for them to earn some quick revenge here as they head to Phoenix looking to snap their five-game skid. Chicago shot a miserable 38% from the field in that loss to the Mercury while Phoenix shot a blistering 52.5%. Yet it still took a 14-3 run to end the game for the Mercury to prevail. Here, Chicago opened as a short road favorite but has since shifted to an underdog role. That's just fine with us. The Sky are expected to have both Allie Quigley and Stefanie Dolson back for this game. How much they can contribute minutes-wise remains to be seen but the fact that they have them back in the lineup at least provides an emotional boost. Remember, this is a team that started the season with consecutive victories. Phoenix has been dealing with a key absence of its own with Diana Taurasi sidelined with a chest injury. Note that the Mercury check in 0-8 ATS the last eight times they've played at home after allowing 80 points or more in their last game, as is the case here. Despite Tuesday's loss, Chicago has still taken five of the last seven meetings in this series. Take Chicago (10*). | |||||||
06-03-21 | Mariners v. Angels -145 | 6-2 | Loss | -145 | 13 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Seattle at 9:35 pm et on Thursday. The Angels return home after finishing their road trip on a positive note with three wins in their final four games, including an 8-1 rout of the Giants two nights ago. Meanwhile, the Mariners hit the road after a disappointing series loss at home against the A's, dropping their last two contests. Note that Seattle is 11-15 on the road this season where it averages only 3.8 runs per game. At first glance this may look like an opportunity to bust out offensively as Angels starter Griffin Canning owns poor overall numbers this season. However, a closer look shows that he has pitched well in four of his last five starts and has been terrific in four nighttime outings this season, recording a 2.82 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with the Angels winning three of those games. The less said about the Angels bullpen the better as they've struggled for the most part this season but I do think Canning can work fairly deep into this game as he has gone at least into the sixth inning in four of his last five starts. Justus Sheffield will counter for Seattle. He's been terrible in four road starts this season, posting a 6.75 ERA and 1.88 WHIP with the Mariners winning just one of those games. At night he owns a 5.62 ERA and 1.78 WHIP. Note that the Angels are averaging an impressive 5.5 runs per game against left-handed starters this season. Like the Angels 'pen, the Mariners relief corps has also struggled, posting a collective 5.33 ERA and 1.54 WHIP over their last seven games entering yesterday's contest. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
06-03-21 | Tigers v. White Sox -199 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
MLB Big Chalk Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago over Detroit at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. The White Sox had their series finale in Cleveland rained out yesterday, preventing them the opportunity to go for a 2-2 series split. I do look for them to bounce back from consecutive losses here as they open a series with the suddenly surging Tigers. Detroit has won five of its last seven games overall. Despite a 10-run explosion against the Brewers last time out, the Tigers are still averaging just 4.6 runs per game over their last seven contests, however. Casey Mize will get the start for Detroit on Thursday. While he's been solid this season, it's interesting to note that he owns a 4.33 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in five starts against division opponents with the Tigers winning just two of those games. That includes a 3-1 loss to the White Sox. Note that Chicago will be getting its fourth look at Mize since last August and it has had some success against him, scoring eight earned runs in 15 2/3 innings, going a perfect 3-0 along the way. While the Tigers bullpen has been terrific lately, it still owns a 6.22 ERA and 1.60 WHIP on the road this season where it has recorded just five saves compared to four blown saves. Veteran Lance Lynn will counter for Chicago. He's off to a tremendous start this season having gone 6-1 with a 1.37 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. He's certainly comfortable pitching here in Chicago where he has gone 5-1 with a 1.46 ERA and 0.81 WHIP. Behind Lynn is a White Sox bullpen that has posted a collective 0.50 ERA and 0.39 WHIP over the last seven games and owns a solid 3.22 ERA and 1.10 WHIP at home this season. Take Chicago (10*). | |||||||
06-03-21 | Hurricanes v. Lightning OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
NHL Central Division Round Two Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Carolina and Tampa Bay at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. If the Hurricanes are going to have any chance at getting back in this series they're going to need to break through against Lightning goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy. With the scene shifting to Tampa for Game 3 on Thursday night, I expect them to do just that. Note that the last four times the Lightning have played after posting consecutive road victories, they've gone on to allow a whopping 6.0 goals per game with those contests totaling an average of 9.3 goals. We're talking about a small sample size, but the point is still worth making. Also note that the 'over' has gone 17-7 the last 24 times the Lightning have come off a one-goal victory over a division opponent, with those games totaling an average of 6.8 goals. Carolina's road games have been considerably higher-scoring than its home games this season, averaging a total of 6.0 goals. Lightning home games have averaged an identical 6.0 goals as well. I'll also point to the fact that the 'over' has gone 27-17 with the Canes playing on the road with a total of 5.5 under head coach Rod Brind'Amour, with those contests totaling an average of 6.1 goals. We've now seen four consecutive 'under' results in games between these two teams. I believe both have too much offensive firepower for that trend to continue much longer. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
06-03-21 | Northern Ireland v. Ukraine -140 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on Ukraine over Northern Ireland at 2:45 pm et on Thursday. While Ukraine is getting ready for the Euros, which they will open with a match against the Netherlands on June 13th, Northern Ireland is wrapping up for the summer with this being the back half of a two-game friendly set. Northern Ireland of course stunned Ukraine in the 2016 Euros, securing a 2-0 victory - its only points of the tournament. Revenge will have little to do with this match, but I expect Ukraine to prevail nonetheless. Northern Ireland checks in off a convincing 3-0 win over Malta on Sunday. Don't get too excited about that result as Malta checks in ranked 176th in world football. It will face a much stiffer test against a Ukraine squad that is expected to field its best lineup as it tries to shake off an uneven stretch and get rolling prior to its showdown with the Dutch in a little over week. Northern Ireland has a keen interest in giving some of its young players coming up playing time on the national stage in these two friendly matches and that could certainly open the door for the Ukraine's to build (or stretch out) their margin in this one. Don't sleep on the fact that Northern Ireland will be without two of its more experienced and reliable players in Johnny Evans and Steven Davies. Meanwhile, Ukraine is expected to have the standout duo of Yarmolenko and Zinchenko at its disposal for this tune-up. We're being offered a reasonable price to back the superior side here. Take Ukraine (10*). | |||||||
06-02-21 | Golden Knights +1.5 v. Avalanche | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Vegas +1.5 goals over Colorado at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'm expecting Game 2 of this series to play out much differently than Game 1. The Avs of course skated to a stunning 7-1 blowout victory in the series opener, overwhelming a Knights squad that was just one day removed from finishing off its hard-fought seven-game opening round series with the Wild. Now Vegas is set up well, having gone a perfect 12-0 when revenging a road loss against an opponent by three goals or more over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.8 goals in that situation. Colorado's Game 1 victory marked its second straight win over Vegas. It's worth noting that neither team has managed to win three in a row in nine meetings in this series this season. Also note that the Knights are 7-2 against the Avs this season when factoring in the +1.5 puck-line that we're dealing with tonight. Take Vegas +1.5 goals (10*). | |||||||
06-02-21 | Golden Knights v. Avalanche UNDER 5.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Vegas and Colorado at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. We missed badly with the 'under' in Game 1 of this series on Sunday as the Golden Knights inexplicably turned to Robin Lehner between the pipes and were absolutely dominated to the tune of a 7-1 loss. Here, I fully expect Vegas to punch back but I'm not convinced it will find a great deal of offensive success noting that the Avs have allowed just 1.9 goals per game on home ice this season. For their part, the Knights have given up only 2.3 goals per game on the road this season so Game 1 could certainly be considered an anomaly. Prior to that contest, Vegas had held Colorado to exactly two goals in three straight meetings. It's not as if this has been a particularly high-scoring series this season as the 'under' has actually gone 6-3. Note that the 'under' is 17-7 with the Knights playing on the road off consecutive 'over' results over the last three seasons with that situation producing an average total of just 5.0 goals. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
06-02-21 | Mavs +7 v. Clippers | 105-100 | Win | 100 | 16 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. The road team has won all four games in this series so far and while I'm not sure if that trend will continue on Wednesday, I do think this line will prove too high. I like the fact that there have been two days off between games here as that will have served to give Mavs injured star Luke Doncic a little extra time to get treatment on his neck and heal up heading into this one. Of course, the Mavs have been a better team off a loss as well, particularly on the road where they've gone 26-15 ATS off a loss over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 5.5 points. On 39 occasions where the Clippers have come off consecutive ATS wins as a favorite over the last three seasons, as is the case here, they've actually been outscored by 0.6 points on average. Meanwhile, the Mavs have outscored opponents by an average margin of 3.1 points per game after losing two or more games in a row ATS over the last three seasons, as is the case here, with that situation coming up 43 times. Take Dallas (10*). | |||||||
06-02-21 | Grizzlies v. Jazz UNDER 225.5 | 110-126 | Loss | -107 | 15 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Memphis and Utah at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. Let's try this again, shall we? After cashing the Jazz minus the points in Game 2 we went with the 'under' in both Games 3 and 4, coming up empty as both contests sailed 'over' the total. Here, with the scene shifting back to Utah, I'm looking for a lower-scoring affair. Note that the 'under' has gone 35-19 with the Grizzlies losing three of their last four games ATS over the last three seasons with those contests totaling an average of just 216.9 points. We've also seen the 'under' go 31-13 after the Grizzlies allow 120 points or more over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an average total of just 219.8 points. For the Jazz's part, they've seen the 'under' go 13-4 when playing at home off consecutive 'over' results over the last two seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of only 208.2 points with Utah allowing just 97.6 points in that spot. With this being an elimination game - the first in this series - we can expect things to finally tighten up a bit, keeping in mind, the series-opener over a week ago did stay 'under' the number we're working with tonight. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
06-02-21 | Rangers v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | 3-6 | Loss | -125 | 13 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Texas and Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday. Even extra innings couldn't get the final score even close to the total in last night's series-opener between these two teams at hitter-friendly Coors Field. Here, I don't expect the same problem. Jordan Lyles will take the ball for Texas. He has been downright awful in nighttime starts this season, posting a 6.55 ERA and 1.57 WHIP with the 'over' cashing at a 4-3 clip. Given he's averaging just a shade over five innings per start this season that spells trouble as the Rangers bullpen has been terrible on the road this season, entering last night's action sporting a collective 5.50 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. Antonio Senzatela will counter for Colorado. He owns a 4.35 ERA and 1.30 WHIP at home this season and a 6.91 ERA and 1.74 WHIP in nighttime starts. Like Lyles, he has struggled to work deep into games meaning we should see plenty from a Rockies bullpen that has posted a 6.07 ERA and 1.61 WHIP with five blown saves at home this season (entering last night's contest). Take the over (10*). | |||||||
06-02-21 | Hawks v. Knicks -1 | 103-89 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York minus the points over Atlanta at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Knicks have been quite simply outclassed in the last two games in this series but if there were ever a time for them to punch back, this would be it as they face elimination on Wednesday night at MSG. The situation sets up well for New York here. Note that Atlanta has gone just 11-22 when heading on the road following a home game over the last two seasons, outscored by 7.5 points on average in the process. Worse still, the Hawks are 18-34 ATS when coming off two or more wins in a row over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 6.3 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Knicks are an incredible 18-2 ATS when at home with the line set between +3 and -3 this season, as is the case at the time of writing. They're also 19-8 ATS as a favorite this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 8.6 points. After getting blown out in the last two games it's not going to be difficult at all for the Knicks to get up for this one. Take New York (10*). | |||||||
06-02-21 | Marlins v. Blue Jays OVER 8 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a low-scoring game as the Blue Jays returned to Sahlen Field in Buffalo and delivered a 5-1 victory over the Marlins last night. Here, I look for a different story to unfold. The Marlins will hand the ball to Pablo Lopez. While he's been terrific at home this season, he's been awful on the road, posting a 5.13 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 26 1/3 innings of work. Of course, the Blue Jays are fully capable of teeing off on him here on Wednesday. Alek Manoah will counter for Toronto. He tossed six quality innings of shutout ball at Yankee Stadium in his big league debut last week. Perhaps we see a bit of a letdown off that adrenaline-fueled performance here, however. Note that behind Manoah is a Jays bullpen that entered last night's game having posted a collective 4.19 ERA and 1.45 WHIP over their last seven games. With the Marlins once again getting healthier I do think they're a strong candidate for a breakout offensive performance following a down stretch. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
06-02-21 | Mets v. Diamondbacks OVER 8 | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Arizona at 3:40 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a relatively high-scoring affair between these two teams last night, albeit aided by extra innings, as the D'Backs prevailed by a 6-5 score. I'm anticipating more of the same on Wednesday as the Mets send David Peterson to the hill against D'Backs veteran Madison Bumgarner. Peterson has struggled on the road this season, posting a 5.55 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. To make matters worse, the D'Backs will be getting their second look at the left-hander after chasing him after just 1 2/3 innings in an eventual 5-4 win back on May 7th. With Peterson averaging less than five innings per start this season we're likely to see plenty of a Mets bullpen that just hasn't been the same on the road this season, posting a collective 4.78 ERA and 1.44 WHIP before giving up another two earned runs in 3 1/3 innings last night. Bumgarner got off to a fine start for the D'Backs this season but the wheels have come off lately as he has posted an 8.36 ERA and 1.64 WHIP over his last three outings. He owns a 5.66 ERA and 1.36 WHIP here at home this season and like Peterson, hasn't shown the ability to work deep into games, averaging just over five innings per start. The Arizona 'pen has recorded a collective 5.27 ERA and 1.52 WHIP at home this season. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
06-02-21 | Scotland v. Netherlands OVER 2.5 | 2-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' 2.5 goals between Scotland and the Netherlands at 2:45 pm et on Wednesday. We know the Dutch can score. Here we find the Oranje coming off a three-match stretch of World Cup Qualifiers in which they went 2-1, notching 11 goals along the way. However, I do think they're somewhat vulnerable in the back with defending Virgil van Dijk (ligament injury) and goalkeeper Jasper Cillesen (Covid-19 protocols) sidelined. For Scotland, it will be looking to make a splash as it preps for its first major tournament in 20 years. While little is expected of them at the Euros, the Scots are not without starpower and come off a World Cup Qualifying stint that saw them find the back of the net seven times in three March matches. Here, we shouldn't need much from the Scottish side to get 'over' the very reasonable total. Take the over 2.5 goals (10*). | |||||||
06-01-21 | Lakers v. Suns OVER 207 | 85-115 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Phoenix at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Suns have now posted consecutive 'under' results for the first time since March 26th and 28th but I expect that streak to end at two games with a relatively high-scoring affair on Tuesday night. The Lakers will likely be without Anthony Davis for this one, which certainly puts a damper on their offense. However, it also serves to open things up a bit for the Suns offense which is in line for a breakout performance after being held to 100 points or less in three of the first four games in this series and 109 points or less in all four contests. Keep in mind, the Suns average 115.7 points per game on an impressive 49.3% shooting here at home this season. It certainly looked like Chris Paul's shoulder was feeling much better in Game 4 on Sunday and while just one day between games is a bit of a concern, it's not as if he was overly taxed in Game 4, playing just 31 minutes. Note that the 'over' is 41-25 with the Suns coming off an 'under' result over the last two seasons with those contests totaling an average of 224.4 points. The 'over' is also 33-19 with the Suns coming off a win this season with that situation producing an average total of 224.1 points. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
06-01-21 | Angels v. Giants OVER 6.5 | Top | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a relatively low-scoring game between these two teams yesterday as the Giants pulled away late for a 6-1 victory. Of course that result would actually be enough to get Tuesday's game 'over' the very low posted total. I believe it will prove to be too low. Andrew Heaney gets the start for the Angels. We won with the 'over' in his most recent outing against the Rangers. He has posted an inflated 7.71 ERA and 1.79 WHIP over his last three starts and has seen the 'over' cash at an 8-1 clip in his nine starts to date this season. Given the fact that he averages just five innings per start we're likely to see plenty from the Angels bullpen in this one. They have posted a collective 4.72 ERA and 1.39 WHIP on the road this season (entering yesterday's action). They gave up another two earned runs in 2 1/3 innings in yesterday's loss. Left-hander Alex Wood will take the ball for the Giants. While he has been solid overall this season I will point out that the Angels are averaging 5.3 runs per game against southpaw starters this season with those games totaling an average of 11.2 runs. Wood's home numbers do jump off the page but just one reason for caution (and why my play on the Giants is of the 8* variety), three of his four home outings have come against the Marlins, Rockies and Rangers - three subpar offensive clubs, particularly on the road. We likely won't need much from the Angels offense to help this one 'over' the low total. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
06-01-21 | Blazers v. Nuggets OVER 226 | Top | 140-147 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
NBA Northwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Portland and Denver at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a relatively low-scoring game between these two teams on Sunday afternoon as the Nuggets simply couldn't get back up for Game 4 after staging an upset win in Game 3. Here, I look for a return to this series' high-scoring ways as the scene shifts back to Denver for Game 5. Note that the 'over' has gone 23-11 with the Blazers coming off an 'under' result this season with those games totaling an average of 235.8 points. We've also seen the 'over' go 17-6 with the Blazers playing on the road off a double-digit win over the last two seasons with that situation producing an average total of 235.1 points. On the flip side, the 'over' has gone 20-9 with the Nuggets coming off a double-digit loss over the last two seasons, good for an average total of 229.5 points. With Denver coming off a loss of any kind this season, the 'over' has gone 18-8 with an average total of 228.1 points scored. I look for both teams to come out aggressively in this pivotal Game 5 as they lean on their strengths with the Blazers averaging 116.9 points per game on the road and the Nuggets putting up 117.2 points per game here at home and noting that the 'over' has gone 7-4 in the last 11 meetings in Denver. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
06-01-21 | Pirates v. Royals OVER 8 | 5-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'over' in this matchup last night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here on Tuesday. William Crowe will get another turn in the rotation for the Buccos. He's been generally awful this season but particularly bad in three nighttime starts in which he has posted a 7.94 ERA and 2.12 WHIP. Crowe is averaging just over four innings per start which means we'll likely see plenty from a Pirates bullpen that has posted a collective 4.59 ERA and 1.40 WHIP on the road this season (entering last night's action). Brady Singer gets the start for the Royals and he hasn't been much better than Crowe. Singer has posted a 6.46 ERA and 1.50 WHIP over his last three starts and checks in sporting a 4.84 ERA and 1.57 WHIP at night. Like Crowe, he generally doesn't work deep into ball games, averaging fewer than five innings per start. The Royals bullpen has been fairly solid lately but still entered last night's action sporting a 4.61 ERA and 1.42 WHIP here at home this season and a 4.88 ERA and 1.56 WHIP at night. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
06-01-21 | Lightning v. Hurricanes -110 | 2-1 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on Carolina over Tampa Bay at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. While we missed with the Canes in Game 1 of this series on Sunday I won't hesitate to go back to the well with them again in Game 2 as they look to even this series at one game apiece. Carolina actually outshot Tampa Bay by a 38-30 margin in Game 1 but was ultimately foiled by what could only be called a 'bad goal' given up by Alex Nedeljkovic in the third period. Carolina is still 23-9 on home ice this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.3 goals. The Canes know that if they're going to have any shot at dethroning the defending Stanley Cup champions they need this win as taking four out of the next five games is likely too tall of a task against a team as good as the Lightning. As terrific as the Lightning have been in recent years, this isn't an ideal spot for them as they've gone just 20-23 when coming off a one-goal victory over the last two seasons. Take Carolina (10*). | |||||||
06-01-21 | Twins v. Orioles OVER 9 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
A.L. Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Baltimore at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a low-scoring game between these two teams yesterday as the Twins prevailed 3-2 in extra innings. I'm expecting a different story to unfold on Tuesday, however. Michael Pineda will get the call for the Twins. He was sharp against the Orioles in his most recent start last week and his overall numbers are solid this season. With that being said, he's certainly prone to giving up the long ball, having been tagged for nine home runs in eight starts this season, including seven in his last five starts. Now he pitches at hitter-friendly Camden Yards. His recent numbers against the O's are positive but he hasn't faced them here in Baltimore since 2016. In six career starts at Camden Yards he has been tagged for 20 earned runs in 29 1/3 innings. Working behind Pineda is a Twins bullpen that owns a collective 5.40 ERA and 1.53 WHIP (entering yesterday's action) on the road this season. Bruce Zimmermann remains in the Orioles rotation only because they have no better options right now. To say that he's struggled would be an understatement. He owns a 5.52 ERA and 1.84 WHIP here at home and like Pineda, has had a tough time keeping the ball in the park, allowing home runs in four straight and eight of nine career big league starts. Note that he'll be facing a Twins club that actually produces better on the road, where it averages north of five runs per game this season. With Zimmermann unlikely to work deep into this game that means we should see plenty from the O's down-trodden bullpen, which entered yesterday's game having posted an 8.31 ERA and 1.90 WHIP over its last seven games. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
06-01-21 | Rays v. Yankees +1.5 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York +1.5 runs over Tampa Bay at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. This is a classic case of two teams heading in opposite directions but I look for the Yankees to potentially turn the tide on Tuesday night in the Bronx. Tyler Glasnow gets the start for New York. The Yanks will be getting their second look at him this season after chasing him from a start here in New York after only five innings back in mid-April. In fact, Glasnow has failed to work beyond the fifth inning in any of his last three starts against the Yankees and has only managed to last six innings against them once in eight career starts. That could be key here tonight as the Rays bullpen has been average at best on the road this season, posting a collective 4.31 ERA and 1.32 WHIP (entering yesterday's action). Domingo German will counter for New York. He has also struggled to work deep into ball games against the Rays although he did go six solid innings in a 6-2 win in his most recent start against them here at home. Note that German has been pitching well, having recorded a 1.45 ERA and 0.91 WHIP over his last three starts. He also owns a 2.25 ERA and 0.96 WHIP not to mention a perfect 4-0 team record in four nighttime starts this season. Behind German is a terrific Yankees bullpen that has posted a collective 2.96 ERA and 1.16 WHIP at home this season (entering yesterday's game). Take New York +1.5 runs (10*). | |||||||
06-01-21 | Aces +1.5 v. Sun | 67-74 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Las Vegas plus the points over Connecticut at 7 pm et on Tuesday. We were fortunate to cash a ticket fading Connecticut on Sunday as it faded in the game's final minute in an eventual overtime loss against the Lynx. Here, I look for the Sun to fall short once again as they host a surging Las Vegas Aces squad. I noted in Sunday's analysis that the Sun were a road-weary bunch and now they check in playing their seventh game in the last 14 nights in five different cities with not one occasion where they were able to catch their breath with consecutive games at home over that stretch. Meanwhile, Las Vegas comes in having played four of its last five games at home, forced to travel just once over the last two weeks - that being a relatively short trip to Phoenix. The Aces have reeled off three straight victories, going 2-0-1 ATS over that stretch and will be set on earning some revenge here after dropping a 72-65 decision at home against the Sun on May 23rd. While I have a lot of respect for Connecticut, I do feel it is still in line for some regression and should fall short against an elite Las Vegas team on Tuesday night. Take Las Vegas (10*). | |||||||
05-31-21 | Jazz v. Grizzlies UNDER 225.5 | Top | 120-113 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Memphis at 9:35 pm et on Monday. We've seen the 'over' cash in the first three meetings in this series but I look for a reversal of that trend on Monday night. After consecutive subpar defensive efforts, the Grizzlies need to step up at that end of the floor here in Game 4. They're certainly capable of doing so, having allowed 110.5 points per game on 45.6% shooting here at home this season, with the 'under' cashing at a 23-15 clip. Note that Memphis has allowed just 107.6 points per game when coming off a double-digit loss at home over the last two seasons, with the 'under' going 13-4 along the way. The 'under' is also 13-2 with the Grizzlies playing at home in just their second game in the last five days over the last two seasons, with those contests averaging a total of 216.7 points. Likewise, the Jazz have posted a 26-41 o/u record when playing their second game in the last five days over the last three seasons with those games totaling just 215.4 points on average. Donovan Mitchell's return has essentially turned the tide for the Jazz in this series. In what is basically a must-win game for the Grizzlies, look for them to do a better job of limiting his opportunities. Offensively, Memphis is in tough as it has now shot 45% or worse from the field in six of its last seven contests, perhaps showing a bit of a fatigue after going all-out down the stretch to earn a playoff spot. Note that the Grizzlies have scored over 110 points in four straight games entering Monday's contest, their longest such streak since April 14th to 19th. In their next game after that previous four-game streak they managed only 105 points and produced an 'under' result against the Clippers. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
05-31-21 | Pirates v. Royals OVER 8 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Monday. Chad Kuhl - one of the most hittable starters in all of baseball in early April - returns to the Pirates rotation following a stint on the I.L. and I look for him to struggle against a Royals club that lit him up last September. In that start in the latter stages of last season, Kuhl allowed a whopping nine earned runs in just 2 1/3 innings of work. Before hitting the injured list this season, Kuhl had posted a 6.32 ERA and 1.79 WHIP in four starts spanning 15 2/3 innings of work. While the Pirates bullpen has pitched well lately, most of that success came during a six-game homestand. The Buccos 'pen has posted a less than impressive 4.63 ERA on the road this season, not to mention a 4.59 ERA and 1.40 WHIP under the lights. Mike Minor will counter for Kansas City. The Pirates will be getting their second look at the left-hander this season after knocking him around for four earned runs in 4 1/3 innings in a wild 9-6 Royals victory back on April 28th. Note that Minor has been at his worst at home this season where he has recorded a 6.43 ERA and 1.25 WHIP with the 'over' cashing at a 4-1 clip in his five starts. Likewise, the Royals 'pen has struggled at home this season to the tune of a 4.61 ERA and 1.42 WHIP with four blown saves along the way. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
05-31-21 | Islanders v. Bruins OVER 5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
NHL East Division Playoff Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Boston at 7:35 pm et on Monday. We're only one game into this series but as good as a defensive team as they are, I think the chances of the Islanders slowing down the Bruins 'Perfection Line' of Marchand, Bergeron and Pastrnak are slim to none. While David Pastrnak managed a hat trick in Game 1, he easily could have had a couple more goals as well. When the dust settled, the Bruins shook off some early rust and cruised to a 5-2 series-opening victory. New York generally carries a defensive mindset under head coach Barry Trotz but here I think it knows it will have to turn up the offensive volume in order to stay in this series. It's worth noting that the Isles have managed to score at least four goals against the Bruins on three different occasions this season. While they faced a different challenge in round one, they scored four goals in both games where they were coming off a loss, as is the case here. Note that the Isles have allowed 3.4 goals per game when revenging a road loss against an opponent this season with those contests totaling an average of 6.1 goals. The Bruins have been a terrific positive momentum play here at home, averaging 3.8 goals per game after winning two or more games in a row over the last three seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 6.1 goals. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
05-31-21 | Angels v. Giants -130 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco over Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Monday. The Giants are rolling right now and remain one of the most undervalued teams in baseball. While a letdown looks like it could be in order off a huge series sweep of the rival Dodgers in Los Angeles, I don't see it in this spot. The Angels are coming off consecutive wins of their own over a division rival in Oakland. That only salvaged a four-game series split with the A's - a series in which they scored a grand total of only nine runs. L.A. checks in just 11-15 on the road this season where it averages less than four runs per game. Meanwhile, San Francisco has posted a solid 14-7 home record, averaging 4.2 runs per contest. The starting pitching matchup is virtually a wash here with Dylan Bundy facing Johnny Cueto. I will point out, however, that Cueto has been at his best at home and in daytime starts this season, recording a 3.11 ERA and 0.98 WHIP here in San Fran while posting a 2.82 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in daytime outings. After a strong start to the season, the wheels have come off for Bundy as he has been tagged for 17 earned runs in just 9 2/3 innings of work over his last three starts. The Angels have lost six of his last eight starts overall. Where the Giants own a big advantage here is in the bullpen and that's notable as both Bundy and Cueto average just a shade over five innings per start this season. Note that the Giants 'pen has posted a collective 2.96 ERA and 1.12 WHIP at home this season. Take San Francisco (10*). | |||||||
05-31-21 | Rays v. Yankees -102 | 3-1 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Tampa Bay at 1:05 pm et on Monday. I realize that the Yankees don't inspire a lot of confidence right now but I'm willing to back them at a discounted price as they look to bounce back from a surprising series sweep in Detroit. Jameson Taillon will take the ball for New York. While his overall numbers are poor, he's actually been pretty sharp here at home where he has posted a 2.42 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in 26 innings of work this season. He also owns a solid 3.21 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in daytime starts. The Rays hit him hard in a start earlier this month but that came in St. Petersburg (we won with the Rays in that game). Rich Hill will counter for Tampa Bay. Here, the Yanks will be getting their third look at the veteran left-hander this season. He struck out a season-high 13 and worked eight innings last time out but the Rays still came up short in a 2-1 loss to the Royals. Note that Hill owns a 4.50 ERA and 1.22 WHIP on the road this season. While he did work deep into the game in his last start, he actually averages just north of five innings per start this season. Behind Hill is a Rays bullpen that owns a collective 4.31 ERA and 1.31 WHIP on the road this season. In contrast, the Yankees 'pen has posted a 2.96 ERA and 1.16 WHIP at home. Take New York (9*). | |||||||
05-30-21 | Golden Knights v. Avalanche UNDER 5.5 | 1-7 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Vegas and Colorado at 8:10 pm et on Sunday. The 'over' cashed in the final three games of the Avs opening round demolition of the Blues and also hit in the Golden Knights Game 7 clincher against the Wild. Here, I'll go the contrarian route and call for a lower-scoring affair than most are expecting. Yes, both teams are loaded with offensive firepower but with that being said, the 'under' has actually cashed in three of their last five matchups here in Colorado and four of their last six meetings overall. While better known for their offense, the Avs have been terrific at keeping pucks out of their own net here at home this season, allowing just 1.9 goals per game. Likewise, the Knights have allowed just 2.2 goals per game away from home this season. Note that the Knights check in sporting an 11-22 o/u record when playing on the road revenging a loss against an opponent, as is the case here, over the last two seasons with those contests totaling an average of just 5.1 goals. The 'under' is also 22-10 with the Knights playing on the road off a game where seven or more goals were scored over the last two seasons, leading to an average total of just 5.1 goals as well. On the other side, the Avs have posted a 10-22 o/u record the last 32 times they've followed consecutive road wins by two goals or more with that situation producing an average total of only 4.7 goals. Finally, it's worth mentioning that the Avs average only 1.9 goals per game when playing at home in their fifth or less game in the last two weeks over the last three seasons. That situation has come up nine times previously. Take the under (9*). | |||||||
05-30-21 | Sun v. Lynx +2 | 74-79 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Connecticut at 7 pm et on Sunday. Connecticut is off to a blazing 6-1 start to the season but I look for it to get tripped up here as it travels to Minnesota to face the winless Lynx on Sunday. Note that the Sun will be playing their sixth game in the last 12 nights, in five different cities. Also note that they're coming off three straight tightly-contested basketball games, all decided by seven points or less. Meanwhile, the Lynx got closer to full strength with the return of Napheesa Collier last time out and while they dropped their fourth game in a row, Collier contributed 14 points, six assists, three rebounds and two blocks in 28 quality minutes. They'll be happy to face someone other than the defending WNBA champion Storm after dropping consecutive double-digit decisions against them. While the Sun may be a little road weary, the Lynx will be playing for just the third time in the last 11 nights. The last time these two teams met we saw Minnesota prevail by nine points last August. Take Minnesota (10*). | |||||||
05-30-21 | Lightning v. Hurricanes -105 | 2-1 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Carolina over Tampa Bay at 5:05 pm et on Sunday. This promises to be an incredible series between two true Stanley Cup contenders. I like the Hurricanes to hold serve in Sunday's series-opener. Note that Carolina hasn't just been good at home this season, it has been phenomenal, going 23-8 while outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.4 goals. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay checks in a modest 16-14 on the road with its shooting percentage dropping considerably from its season average of 10.9% to 9.4%. The Canes have posted an incredible 11-1 record when at home off a one-goal victory over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by a whopping 2.7 goals on average in that spot. They've also gone 9-1 off an overtime win this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.8 goals. I would match a healthy Hurricanes squad up against any other team in the league in terms of talent - even against the defending Stanley Cup champion Lightning. All respect to Tampa Bay, but I look for Carolina to come out strong in this series. Take Carolina (10*). | |||||||
05-30-21 | Angels v. A's -145 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -145 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
MLB A.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on Oakland over Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. The Angels got the better of the A's in yesterday's ball game, securing a 4-0 victory to avoid a potential four-game sweep in this series. I look for Oakland to answer back with a win of its own on Sunday afternoon. Down-trodden Jose Quintana will take the ball for Los Angeles. To say that he has struggled this season would be an understatement. With a 7.93 ERA and 1.92 WHIP you have to wonder how many more starts the Angels can afford to give the veteran right-hander. Things have been even worse for Quintana on the road, where he owns a gaudy 12.54 ERA and 2.36 WHIP, albeit with a relatively small sample size of three starts spanning just 9 1/3 innings. But that's part of the concern here; Quintana is averaging less than four innings per start this season. That opens the door for an Angels bullpen that entered yesterday's action sporting a 5.13 ERA and 1.47 WHIP on the road this season. Cole Irvin will counter for Oakland. The A's have dropped each of his last four starts although it's worth noting that three of those losses came by a single run. Irvin's overall numbers aren't great this season but most of his struggles have come against the Astros (in three starts against them he's been tagged for 13 earned runs in 14 2/3 innings. Note that Irvin has held his own in five daytime starts, recording a solid 1.21 WHIP. The A's bullpen hasn't been great lately, entering yesterday's action sporting a 4.50 ERA over their last seven games but that doesn't tell the whole story as they actually recorded a terrific 1.06 WHIP over that stretch. Oakland's 'pen was sharp yesterday, tossing 3 1/3 innings of three-hit, shutout ball. Take Oakland (10*). | |||||||
05-30-21 | Suns v. Lakers OVER 209.5 | Top | 100-92 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
NBA on ABC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 3:35 pm et on Sunday. This has been a low-scoring series to this point with the 'under' cashing in two of three games. I expect a different story to unfold on Sunday afternoon, however, as the Suns look to punch back at the Lakers off consecutive losses. Note that while Phoenix is an excellent defensive team, it's road games have still averaged nearly 225 total points this season. Likewise, the Lakers rate as one of the league's best defensive squads, but games here at Staples Center have still reached an average total of nearly 219 points. Two regular season meetings between these two teams here totaled 218 and 233 points. The fact that there was two days off between Games 3 and 4 is key for the Suns as they need Chris Paul's shoulder to heal up as he's clearly been off in the last couple of games. He's obviously still not going to be at 100% but I do expect him to contribute more than he did in the last couple of games and it's certainly worth noting that despite his struggles, Game 3 still went 'over' the total and Game 4 fell short by just a handful of points. Note that the 'over' is 41-24 with the Suns coming off an 'under' result over the last two seasons with those contests totaling an average of 225 points. The 'over' is also 40-26 with the Suns playing consecutive road games over the last two seasons, producing an average total of 227.1 points. There are a number of trends pointing to the 'under' when it comes to the Lakers but in virtually all of those situations, the average total has gone 'over' the relatively low number we're working with today. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
05-30-21 | Suns +7 v. Lakers | 100-92 | Win | 100 | 9 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix plus the points over Los Angeles at 3:35 pm et on Sunday. The Suns are in tough right now with Chris Paul battling a painful shoulder injury that has rendered him ineffective over the last two games - both losses. However, with an extra day off between games, I would expect CP3 to at the very least contribute more than he did in Game 3, while I also expect the rest of the Suns to step up off back-to-back losses. Note that Phoenix has been an excellent road team this season, going 24-13 while outscoring the opposition by 2.2 points per game. They're in a fine spot here, having gone 23-11 ATS when revenging a double-digit loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 4.4 points on average in that situation. They've also been a tremendous bounce-back team this season, going 21-8 ATS off an ATS loss this season, outscoring opponents by an impressive average margin of 8.7 points in that spot. Meanwhile, the Lakers check in a miserable 4-17 ATS when playing at home off a double-digit home victory over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by a narrow margin of 2.7 points per game in that situation. We're certainly taking a bit of a chance here as Chris Paul's health remains in serious question. However, at the current number, I believe Phoenix is worth a shot in this critical Game 4 matchup. Take Phoenix (10*). | |||||||
05-30-21 | Knicks v. Hawks OVER 208.5 | 96-113 | Win | 100 | 6 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Atlanta at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. The Knicks haven't had any answers for Hawks superstar Trae Young in this series and that's not likely to change overnight. However, New York can help its own cause by knocking down some shots and that's precisely what I expect to see happen on Sunday afternoon in Atlanta. The tandem of Julius Randle and R.J. Barrett was phenomenal during the regular season but they've faded into the wallpaper in this series, most recently combining to shoot 4-for-24 from the field in Game 3. I expect both players to be much better on Sunday afternoon. The Hawks are an underrated defensive team but they've still given up just shy of 109 points per game at home this season. They've held the Knicks to 38.3% and 36.2% shooting over the last two games but that's by no means a sustainable trend. Note that the last time they held the opposition to under 40% shooting in consecutive games, their next game went 'over' the total (that was Game 1 of this series, which reached 212 total points). The only other time they held consecutive opponents under 40% shooting this season, their next game totaled a whopping 238 points at home against the lowly Pistons back on January 20th. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
05-29-21 | Rangers v. Mariners OVER 8.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Texas and Seattle at 10:10 pm et on Saturday. We missed the mark with the 'over' in this matchup last night as Jordan Lyles and Justus Sheffield surprisingly pitched well and the bullpens took care of the rest in a 3-2 Mariners victory. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here, however. Mike Foltynewicz will take the ball for Texas on Saturday. The Mariners will be getting their second look at the veteran right-hander this season after collecting six hits and four earned runs against him in 6 2/3 innings in a 5-4 loss back on May 7th. He has struggled to the tune of a 6.31 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in five nighttime starts this season, averaging just a shade over five innings per start. That spells trouble with a Rangers bullpen that entered last night's game having posted a collective 5.76 ERA and 1.61 WHIP on the road this season likely to get extended work here. Justin Dunn counters for Seattle. He has been pitching reasonably well lately after an inconsistent start to the season. However, the Rangers did see him three times last season and should improve on their numbers against him here, noting that Dunn is in line for some regression here at home where he's managed to record a solid 3.45 ERA but a less than impressive 1.47 WHIP. Dunn is averaging only five innings per start this season so like the Rangers, the Mariners will likely be forced to employ their bullpen for a number of innings here, and that 'pen entered last night's game having posted a collective 6.00 ERA and 1.59 WHIP over their last seven games. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
05-29-21 | Jazz v. Grizzlies UNDER 224 | Top | 121-111 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
NBA First Round Revenge Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Memphis at 9:35 pm et on Saturday. | |||||||
05-29-21 | Islanders v. Bruins -179 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston over New York at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. The Bruins dropped Game 1 of their opening round series with the Capitals but went on to reel off four straight wins from there to dispose of Washington with little trouble. Meanwhile, the Islanders won Game 1 against the Penguins in overtime, setting the stage for a 4-2 series victory. Here, I look for a reversal of roles as the Bruins hold serve at TD Garden in Saturday's round two opener. Boston has been a solid home team all season, going 19-10 while outscoring the opposition by 0.9 goals on average. The Isles check in just 13-18 on the road, where they average a miserable 2.1 goals per game. This one doesn't set up particularly well for New York, noting that it has gone 3-10 when on the road revenging a same-season loss against an opponent this season, averaging just 1.8 goals per game in that situation. It has also gone a miserable 27-56 the last 83 times it has played on the road off three straight victories, as is the case here. The Bruins have averaged 3.1 goals per game and outscored opponents by 0.9 goals on average when playing at home after scoring three goals or more in consecutive games over the last two seasons. I much prefer backing the Isles after a loss as they just seem to be a team that responds well to adversity. Look for the Bruins to hand them some of that here in Game 1. Take Boston (10*). | |||||||
05-29-21 | Maple Leafs -182 v. Canadiens | 2-3 | Loss | -182 | 13 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto over Montreal at 7:35 pm et on Saturday. The Leafs doubters are out in full force after Toronto failed to close out this series on home ice two nights ago (we won with the Canadiens +1.5 goals in that one). I don't think Toronto is about to hit the panic button just yet, however, and look for it to finish off the Habs on Saturday night at the Bell Centre. Yes, the Canadiens will have fans in the stands for the first time this season which should certainly give them an emotional lift. I think it also helps the Leafs, however, as they'll also be playing in front of an audience (albeit limited) for the first time this season. As I've pointed out time and time again over the years, home ice doesn't mean quite as much in the NHL Playoffs, as road teams can feed off the energy just as much as the home sides more often than not. Here, Toronto is set up exceptionally well, noting that it has gone 11-1 when revenging a home loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by 1.5 goals on average in that spot. Meanwhile, Montreal is just 2-8 following a one-goal win this season, outscored by an average margin of 1.7 goals in that situation. In fact, the Habs are a miserable 8-17 off a win of any kind this season and 18-28 after scoring four goals or more in their last game over the last two seasons. Going back over the last two seasons, the Leafs average a whopping 3.9 goals per game when revenging a home loss against an opponent and give up only 1.6 goals per game when revenging a loss where their opponent scored four goals or more this season. This will be the 16th meeting between these rivals this season and we've yet to see the Habs pick up consecutive victories. Take Toronto (10*). | |||||||
05-29-21 | Yankees -133 v. Tigers | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -133 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
American League Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on New York over Detroit at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. The Tigers got past the Yankees in extra innings last night but I look for the Bronx Bombers to answer back with a victory of their own on Saturday afternoon. Deivi Garcia will take the ball for the Yanks. He's made just one spot start this season and allowed two earned runs over four innings in a 4-2 loss to the Orioles (back on April 26th). So you can understand why the Yankees are such a short favorite against the lowly Tigers here. However, I believe Garcia will have a short leash again in this one and behind him is a terrific Yankees bullpen that entered last night's action having posted a 2.69 ERA and 0.95 WHIP on the road this season. Note that the Tigers check in 14-22 against right-handed starting pitching this season, averaging just 3.7 runs per game. Spencer Turnbull gets the start for the Tigers. He's obviously been terrific on the whole this season, including a no-hitter in Seattle two starts back. With that being said, the Yanks will be getting their second look at Turnbull this month after knocking him around for four earned runs over five innings back on May 1st. Turnbull managed only one strikeout in that start so he wasn't really fooling anyone. Behind Turnbull is a Tigers 'pen that has held up well lately but owns a 5.35 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in 79 innings pitched in the daytime this season. Take New York (10*). | |||||||
05-29-21 | Angels v. A's OVER 8 | 4-0 | Loss | -126 | 7 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Oakland at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. We've already cashed a couple of daytime 'overs' here in Oakland this season and we'll go back to the well for another similar setup here. Alex Cobb will take the ball for the Angels. He's pitched well over his last two starts but both of those came at home. It's been a different story on the road where he has posted an 8.70 ERA and 1.93 WHIP in three starts this season. Of course, working behind Cobb is a horrible Angels bullpen that entered last night's game sporting a 6.66 ERA and 1.83 WHIP over their last seven contests. Frankie Montas will get the start for the A's. He's had an up and down start to the season. Here at home, though, it's been mostly down as Montas has recorded a 6.17 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in 35 innings of work. The Angels will be getting their third look at Montas since the start of last season, chasing him before the end of the fifth inning in the two previous games. The A's bullpen has held up well so far in this series, but entered last night's action with a collective 4.67 ERA and 1.34 WHIP here at home this season. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
05-29-21 | Chelsea v. Manchester City -112 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -112 | 30 h 39 m | Show |
Champions League Game of the Year. My selection is on Manchester City over Chelsea at 3 pm et on Saturday. It's an all-England, all-blue showdown between Manchester City and Chelsea in Porto on Saturday as City boss Pep Guardiola looks to finally capture that elusive Champions League title. I like City's chances as it looks to build off an EPL title with a victory over a game Chelsea squad on Saturday. Credit Man City for righting the ship in its EPL finale against Everton, rolling to a 5-0 victory last Sunday. It had been stumbling in the weeks previous, including a 2-1 setback against Chelsea back on May 8th. Of course that match was played just four days after Man City had locked up a spot in the UCL Final with a convincing 2-0 victory over Paris St-Germain. The Sky Blues check in having won 11 of 12 Champions League matches to date, conceding only four goals along the way. While Chelsea has obviously enjoyed considerable success in Europe, it has been a bit frustrating to watch at times with striker Timo Werner in particular struggling to find consistency on the attack. It could certainly be argued that Chelsea is the flashier side in this matchup but all of that window dressing doesn't equate to victory. We've seen City come up empty in Europe on so many occasions over the years I can understand the hesitancy of many to back them here. However, I like the fact that they're going up against a familiar opponent in Chelsea. As much as Blues boss Thomas Tuchel would like to make amends for last year's disappointment with Paris St-Germain a year ago, I expect his squad to fall short against a superior City club on Saturday. Take Manchester City (10*). | |||||||
05-29-21 | Dream +4 v. Liberty | 90-87 | Win | 100 | 4 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over New York at 2 pm et on Saturday. The Liberty have been one of the biggest surprises in the WNBA in the early going this season, reeling off five wins in their first six games. Meanwhile, Atlanta has quietly turned things around with three straight victories and I believe the Dream will be right there with the Liberty here today. Atlanta's turnaround has coincided with everything clicking on offense as it has poured in 83, 90 and 101 points in its last three contests. It should be able to continue that offensive surge against a middle-of-the-pack New York defense here. Give the Liberty credit for getting off to a hot start, but I'm not sure it's sustainable. They've certainly benefited from facing some struggling opponents in the early going (Indiana twice, Minnesota, Washington, Chicago and Dallas). I'll grab the points with the Dream here. Take Atlanta (10*). | |||||||
05-29-21 | Bucks v. Heat +5 | Top | 120-103 | Loss | -112 | 6 h 20 m | Show |
NBA First Round Elimination Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Milwaukee at 1:35 pm et on Saturday. You probably won't find the majority of bettors looking to back the Heat here as they come off consecutive embarrassing performances to dig themselves a virtually insurmountable 0-3 hole in this series. Believe it or not, I think the Heat are set up well to avoid elimination on Saturday afternoon, however. Note that Milwaukee is just 11-24 ATS after winning five or six of its last seven games this season. Better still, the Bucks are 5-16 ATS after posting three or more consecutive victories this season, outscoring opponents by just 0.7 points on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Heat have gone 13-3 ATS after giving up 105 points or more in five consecutive games over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an impressive 7.9 points per game in that spot. The fourth win is generally the toughest in a playoff series and I expect that to hold true here. While the Heat were absolutely crushed in Game 3, at least Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler both managed to post series-high scoring totals. I expect that duo to show some pride and lead the Heat to a strong bounce-back effort here. Take Miami (10*). |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ricky Tran | $756 |
ProSportsPicks | $632 |
Joseph D'Amico | $510 |
Joey Tron | $450 |
Tom Macrina | $399 |
Nick Parsons | $344 |
Sean Murphy | $306 |
Jack Jones | $303 |
William Burns | $233 |
Dan Kaiser | $220 |