Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09-24-21 | Mariners v. Angels +1.5 | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles +1.5 runs over Seattle at 9:35 pm et on Friday. The Mariners are rolling right now, having won five consecutive games to claw back into the A.L. Wild Card hunt, currently sitting two games back of the New York Yankees, who hold down the second spot. Interestingly, this is the first time all season that Seattle checks in having won four of its last five games by multiple runs. I don't expect it to continue tonight in Anaheim. The Angels snapped a six-game losing streak with a 3-2 win over the Astros yesterday. Note that they're 12-6 after losing six or seven of their last eight games this season, as is the case here. While the Mariners do check in six games over .500 on the road this season, they've actually been outscored by an average margin of 0.4 runs in those games. They've been outscored by 0.5 runs on average after winning four or five of their last six games this season. Over the last three seasons, Seattle has been outscored by an average margin of 0.6 runs, allowing 6.2 runs per game in the process, after posting four or more consecutive victories. The Mariners are 14-8 when rookie starter Logan Gilbert takes the ball this season. However, when factoring in the -1.5 run-line, they've gone just 6-16. Meanwhile, Angels starter Jose Suarez hasn't posted great overall numbers this season but there's reason for confidence backing him here, noting that he has worked at least into the sixth inning in three consecutive starts and sports a 2.21 ERA and 0.93 WHIP over his last three outings. Los Angeles has won three of his last four starts overall, outscoring the opposition by a combined 19-8 margin in those games. It has also won three of his four career starts against the Mariners, including a 7-1 victory in his lone previous start against them this season. All told, the Halos have outscored the M's by a combined margin of 29-16 in Suarez's four career outings against them. Take Los Angeles +1.5 runs (6*). | |||||||
09-24-21 | Wake Forest v. Virginia UNDER 67 | Top | 37-17 | Win | 100 | 83 h 36 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Wake Forest and Virginia at 7 pm et on Friday. We're dealing with a very high total in this game, perhaps rightfully so given Virginia is coming off a wild game that featured a whopping 98 points against North Carolina last Saturday night. Let's keep that result in perspective, however. Wake Forest is not North Carolina. The Tar Heels have been in a foul mood ever since opening the season with a stunningly-poor offensive showing in a loss to Virginia Tech - and they have the talent to back it up led by future NFL quarterback Sam Howell. While Wake Forest has scored 42, 41 and 35 points in starting the season 3-0, the first two games came against the likes of Old Dominion and FCS squad Norfolk State and last week's 35-point performance against Florida State was aided by a number of Seminoles miscues. The Demon Deacons orchestrated four touchdown drives against the 'Noles but two of those were kept alive by FSU penalties. I've been encouraged by the Wake Forest defense through three games, noting that in their first two contests they allowed just three touchdowns, with two of those coming when those games were long decided late in the fourth quarter. They gave up two first half scores against Florida State last week but then shut the 'Noles out over the game's final 33 minutes. Virginia has lit up the scoreboard through three games but again, the level of competition is worth noting as its first two games were against FCS squad William & Mary and a rebuilding Illinois team. After falling by a 59-39 score last Saturday in Chapel Hill, I'm not sure the Cavaliers are all that interested in another track meet here. They've done a nice job of controlling proceedings defensively in their two home games this season, allowing just two touchdowns with both of those coming in a game that wasn't competitive against Illinois (we won with Virginia in that contest). Here, they should benefit from facing a Demon Deacons offense that has been a little more one-dimensional this season with QB Sam Hartman shouldering much of the load. RB Christian Beal-Smith is a capable back, but not really a home run hitter out of the backfield like we've seen in recent years from the Deacs'. This matchup produced 63 total points last year as Wake Forest rolled to a 43-20 victory. I look for both offenses to find success moving the football in this one but with enough of those drives stalling, or resulting in 3's rather than 7's to help keep the final score 'under' the lofty total. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-23-21 | Panthers v. Texans OVER 43 | 24-9 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Carolina and Houston at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. Something has to give in this one as the Panthers enter this game sporting an 0-2 o/u mark while the Texans have seen each of their first two contests go 'over' the total. I think a lot of bettors are quick to back the 'under' in this spot, simply due to the fact that the first six primetime games this season have all gone 'over' the total. That's akin to betting on 'black' because 'red' came up six straight times in roulette. I simply feel this total will prove too low. The Panthers defense has feasted through two games this season. Keep in mind, it has benefited from two very favorable matchups - both at home - first going up against an absolutely dreadful Jets offensive line and then facing a Saints team that was in a prime letdown spot off a 'smoke and mirrors' blowout win over the Packers. On paper, this looks like another favorable matchup with the Texans starting rookie third-round draft pick Davis Mills at quarterback. To be honest, I'm not sure he represents all that big of a drop-off from journeyman Tyrod Taylor. An accurate although sometimes overly optimistic passer in college (he's been turnover-prone), Mills was able to get his feet wet in arguably a tougher situation on the road in the second half against the Browns last Sunday, and managed to lead the Texans on one touchdown drive before nearly adding another in the closing minutes. All the Texans have done this season is exceed expectations, putting up 58 points through two games after many (myself included) had them billed as one of the weakest teams we've seen in years. It seems like the entire offense is playing with a chip on its shoulder, with a number of veteran players with a lot to prove including David Johnson, Mark Ingram and Brandin Cooks. Here, they're back home, catching the Panthers off an outright underdog home win - not exactly a favorable spot for visiting NFL teams if history tells us anything. With that being said, I do expect Carolina's offense to absolutely go off in this matchup. Sam Darnold has come out hot this season and with a wealth of burners at the wide receiver position, should be able to roast Houston's secondary. The Texans defense was already lacking talent, but now has to deal with a number of key injuries as well. Kamu Grugier-Hill, who led the team in tackles last week, is listed as questionable due to a knee injury and probably closer to doubtful with this being a short week. Meanwhile, Houston has one of the league's worst secondaries and will have to go without CB Terrance Mitchell and potentially safety Justin Reid as well due to injuries. While the Texans have wisely been playing deep in coverage in an effort to contain big plays through the air, they'll likely have to bump up in this one as they have to respect the ability of Panthers all-world RB Christian McCaffrey. It's a 'pick your poison' type of situation, especially given Houston's inability to pressure opposing quarterbacks, and I don't expect it to hold up well. What this play really comes down to is whether or not we believe that the Texans can keep the pressure on the favored Panthers for four quarters and I believe they can. We saw them orchestrate a fourth quarter touchdown drive while falling just short of another last week when they could have easily folded the tent trailing by double-digits against the Browns. While they're playing on a short week with a rookie quarterback there's really no reason to hold anything back given this will be their only primetime appearance this season. I've said it before and I'll say it again here, it takes a lot to cash an NFL 'under' these days. We'll ride the wave of 'over' results once again on Thursday night, noting that the Panthers have played to an average total of 52.1 points when playing on the road off an 'under' result over the last three seasons while the Texans have posted a 6-0 o/u mark in their last six September games, good for an average total of 52.7 points. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-23-21 | Marshall v. Appalachian State UNDER 58.5 | 30-31 | Loss | -110 | 60 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Marshall and Appalachian State at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring performances last week, albeit in very different circumstances. Marshall put up 38 points but inexplicably coughed up a fourth quarter lead in a 42-38 loss to East Carolina. Meanwhile, Appalachian State rolled to a 44-10 rout of FCS squad Elon. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring contest as the Thundering Herd and Mountaineers do battle in a rematch of last year's 17-7 Marshall victory. Marshall benefited from a number of East Carolina defensive breakdowns last week, something they're not likely to see against an absolutely loaded Appalachian State defense that is strong from the back-end in. While it was up against an inferior opponents in Elon, Appalachian State didn't allow a touchdown until the final minute of the third quarter in last Saturday's game - when proceedings were already well in hand up 27-3. More impressively, two weeks ago the Mountaineers gave up a touchdown midway through the first quarter on the road against Miami, but then held the Hurricanes out of the end zone until early in the third quarter and then didn't give up another touchdown the rest of the game. How about against aforementioned East Carolina? Back in Week 1, Appalachian State allowed a touchdown five minutes into the game but not another until the score was 33-12 with just over two minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. You get my point. With revenge on their minds, you can be sure the Mountaineers will be eager to erase the memory of last year's 17-7 loss to Marshall and once again keep the Thundering Herd offense under wraps. On the flip side, I don't believe Marshall is as bad defensively as it showed in last week's loss to ECU. As I've noted on more than one occasion on Twitter this fall, the Pirates are a team well-suited to playing from behind with a risk-taking QB in Holton Ahlers and a receiving corps that can stretch the field. The Thundering Herd got caught flat-footed in the fourth quarter of that game - plain and simple. Prior to that loss, Marshall had given up just two touchdowns through its first two games, with both of those coming in lopsided affairs. Like Appalachian State, Marshall is loaded on the defensive side of the football. The quick turnaround here affords it the opportunity to quickly erase the memory of that blown opportunity against ECU. The Mountaineers, while talented on offense, haven't proven to be all that explosive. Note that even against Elon last week, they took nearly 10 minutes to score their first points of the game. After that they didn't reach the end zone again until nearly seven minutes into the third quarter. Two weeks ago against Miami they scored a touchdown around 10 minutes into the game but then didn't produce another offensive touchdown (they did have a second quarter kick return touchdown) until less than six minutes were left in the fourth quarter. It's not as if they were up against an elite Miami defense either. Despite that, I'm confident we'll see Marshall make an effort to grind out long, clock-churning drives in an effort to shorten this game, noting that it has committed a whopping three turnovers in all three games so far this season. Against an opportunistic Appalachian State defense it can ill afford to cough the ball up and give the Mountaineers offense any free drives (or short field position). Last Thursday night we saw a wild, high-scoring affair between Ohio and Louisiana-Lafayette (we won with the Ragin' Cajuns in that game) but I expect a much different story to unfold here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-22-21 | Mariners v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
MLB Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday. We've seen consecutive relatively low-scoring affairs to open this series. In fact, you would have to go back to September 15th to find the last time either of these teams posted an 'over' result. Look for that to change on Wednesday. The 'over' is a perfect 8-0 when the Mariners play on the road after winning three or more games in a row over the last two seasons with that spot producing an average total of 13.2 runs. Meanwhile, the 'over' is also a perfect 8-0 when the A's come off consecutive losses at home against division opponents this season, good for an average total of 12.1 runs. The A's average 5.6 runs per game when coming off four straight games scoring four runs or less over the last two seasons, as is the case here. Neither starter is likely to fool the opposition here given the A's have seen Chris Flexen three times this season while the Mariners have also seen Cole Irvin three times here in 2021. Irvin in particular has struggled, allowing a whopping 22 hits in just 11 2/3 innings. Flexen has seemingly hit the wall lately, topping out at four strikeouts over his last four outings, allowing 24 hits and 11 earned runs in 22 1/3 innings. Additionally, the Mariners bullpen has posted a collective 6.37 ERA and 1.63 WHIP over the last seven games. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-22-21 | Hamilton v. Ottawa UNDER 44.5 | 24-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Hamilton and Ottawa at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday. Hamilton is in a tough spot here, playing its second game in six nights and doing so without its best offensive players in QBs Jeremiah Masoli and Dane Evans and WRs Brandon Banks and Bralon Addison. It would be well-suited to effectively shorten this game and put QB David Watford in a 'game manager' role once again, just as it did last Friday against Calgary, and let its defense do much of the heavy-lifting. Ottawa is coming off back-to-back high-scoring affairs, allowing a whopping 96 points in losses to the Alouettes and Lions. The good news is, the RedBlacks are coming off their bye week so certainly have a rest advantage in this spot. I do think they're a better defensive team than they've shown over their last couple of games, noting that they had allowed a grand total of just 59 points over their first three contests this season. Ottawa QB Dominique Davis has thrown 84 passes over the last two games and while he's been able to march the offense up and down the field, he's also turned the football over three times. With the RedBlacks facing a much tougher defensive test in the Ti-Cats this week than they did against the Als and Lions over the last two games, I would anticipate them scaling back their aerial attack in an effort to avoid those costly turnovers, noting that Hamilton has five interceptions in its last four contests. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-21-21 | Braves v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | 6-1 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a high-scoring game to open this series last night as the Braves finally snapped out of their offensive funk. I expect some carry-over from that offensive explosion here as we have a subpar starting pitching matchup between spot starter Jesse Chavez and Luke Weaver. Note that the 'over' is 19-10 when the Braves check in having allowed four runs or less in three straight games this season with that spot producing an average total of 9.9 runs. The 'over' is also 39-22 with Atlanta coming off two or more straight wins over the last two seasons, good for an average total of 10.4 runs. On the flip side, the 'over' is an incredible 15-3 with the D'Backs seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent by six runs or more over the last three seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 11.5 runs. Of course, Arizona has been an 'over' machine in general this month, posting a 12-3 o/u mark with an average total of 10.3 runs scored. Braves starter Jesse Chavez made just one previous spot start this season and gave up two earned runs in just 2 1/3 innings. As bad as Arizona has been in terms of wins and losses, it can score runs, having plated at least four runs in eight of its last 11 games. Luke Weaver hasn't really fooled anyone since returning from injury at the start of September. His three starts in that time have resulted in 11, 13 and 12 total runs. Behind Weaver is a D'Backs bullpen that has recorded a collective 4.81 ERA and 1.69 WHIP over their last seven games. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
09-21-21 | Twins v. Cubs OVER 8 | Top | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Chicago at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Twins have seen their last two games stay 'under' the total but now head to Chicago to face a Cubs squad that has posted five consecutive 'over' results. I'm anticipating a relatively high-scoring affair at Wrigley Field on Tuesday. Note that the 'over' has gone 10-2 when the Twins play on the road after scoring three runs or less in consecutive games this season with that situation producing an average total of 12.9 runs. The 'over' is also 12-4 with the Twins on the road after losing a tight game by two runs or less this season with that spot producing an average total of 10.7 runs. Finally, we've seen the 'over' cash at a 14-3 clip with Minnesota on the road revenging a loss in which it scored one run or less over the last three seasons, as is the case here, good for an average total of 12.0 runs. As for the Cubs, it's been a case of addition by subtraction during the second half of the season as they've posted a 38-28 o/u record, averaging 4.5 runs per game with an average total of 10.7 runs. Neither of tonight's starters instill much confidence. Griffin Jax got off to a positive start to his rookie season with the Twins but has hit the wall since, allowing 26 earned runs over his last five outings, covering a span of 25 innings. He's allowed at least one home run in all but one of his 11 starts this season and checks in sporting a 6.91 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in six road starts. Alec Mills has solid overall numbers for the Cubs this season but averages just a shade over five innings per start and that's a concern as the Chicago bullpen has posted a collective 6.39 ERA and 1.65 WHIP over their last seven games. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-20-21 | Lions v. Packers OVER 48.5 | Top | 17-35 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
NFC North Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and Green Bay at 8:15 pm et on Monday. The Packers return home in a smash spot off last week's dismantling at the hands of the Saints. Green Bay's performance last week was as bad as it gets, particularly on the offensive side of the football. This is the perfect bounce back spot, however, as the Packers play their home-opener in primetime against a Lions defense that has the potential to be very bad this year. Detroit got throttled 41-33 by the 49ers in a game that wasn't nearly as close as the final score indicated last Sunday (we got back-doored with the Niners in that game). What did we learn from that game? The Lions defense is by no means ready for primetime and now has to make do without arguably its best player in CB Jeff Okudah. Question his motivation and general interest in football at this point all you want, but Packers QB Aaron Rodgers should absolutely roast the Lions defense on Monday night. All of Green Bay's key skill position players on offense are poised for monster performances off last week's complete no-show. As WR DaVante Adams put it, last week's result was easy to toss in the trash. Forget it and move on. The real question is whether the Lions can do enough offensively to lift the final score 'over' the total. I believe they can. I think there's a false narrative out there that the Lions are going to be a 'ground and pound' offense with Dan Campbell at the helm. We saw in last week's game that Campbell won't hesitate to abandon the run should things go sideways and perhaps in watching Jared Goff carve up a capable 49ers defense in the fourth quarter he learned something about his offense. While the Lions have two capable running backs in DeAndre Swift and former Packer Jamaal Williams, I don't think they'll bang their heads against the wall running the football all night on Monday. Detroit knows it doesn't have the defense to turn this game into a slugfest. Instead, I look for the Lions to once again open things up on offense, leaning heavily on the likes of Swift (in the passing game) and TE T.J. Hockenson, who proved very useful against the Packers in two meetings last year, catching 10 passes for over 100 yards and a touchdown. Last season we saw totals of 77. 63, 50, 66, 55 and 51 points when the Packers faced NFC North opponents. Also note that Green Bay averages over 35 points per game when coming off a game in which it allowed 30+ points over the last three seasons, with that situation producing an average total of 55.3 points. Off a loss of any kind of the last three seasons, the Packers next game has averaged a total of 52.4 points scored. It takes a lot for an NFL game to stay 'under' the total these days - in fact, we've yet to see a primetime game go 'under' this season ('over' is a perfect 5-0). While an 'under' result is certainly coming, I don't think it happens here. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-20-21 | Pirates v. Reds OVER 9 | Top | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
N.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are coming off a loss on Sunday, with both managing to score exactly five runs in those losing efforts. The last time we saw the Pirates and Reds match up they combined to score just one run as the Reds salvaged the final game of their series in Pittsburgh last week. I expect a different story to unfold on Monday, however. Note that the 'over' has gone 7-1 in the Pirates last eight games. That's nothing new as the 'over' is 57-37 when they play on the road in the second half of the season over the last three seasons with those games totaling an average of 9.8 runs. Also consider that the 'over' is 38-19 when the Buccos revenge a one-run loss against an opponent over that same span, resulting in an average total of 9.9 runs. Meanwhile, the Reds have posted a 41-31 o/u record at home this season (excluding pushes), good for an average total of 10.6 runs. It gets better though as the 'over' is 23-9 when Cincinnati plays at home off a loss this season, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of 12.1 runs. Pirates starter Dillon Peters has pitched relatively well this season but we're talking about a very small sample size of just 23 1/3 innings. Here, the Reds will be seeing him for the second time in a week. Note that the Cardinals saw him twice in a six-day span back in August. After managing just one run on three hits over five innings the first time they saw him, they doubled their hit total (6) and plated three runs, also over five innings, the next time they matched up. The Reds didn't score a single run off of Peters over five innings last week but I expect better production as they see him for a second time, especially given they're back at home. Reds starter Vladimir Gutierrez has seemingly hit the rookie wall here in September. He's now eclipsed 100 innings pitched on the season and has certainly struggled lately, allowing 13 earned runs in 15 innings over his last four starts. He recorded two strikeouts or less in three of those four outings. Both bullpens have held up well lately, but it's worth noting that the Pittsburgh 'pen has recorded a collective 4.91 ERA and 1.36 WHIP with only six saves converted and nine blown in division games this season. The Reds 'pen has posted a collective 5.66 ERA and 1.40 WHIP at home. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-19-21 | Vikings +4 v. Cardinals | 33-34 | Win | 100 | 6 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Arizona at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. We missed with the Vikings on the moneyline last week in Cincinnati but probably deserved a better fate as they were driving for the winning score in overtime before a costly turnover from RB Dalvin Cook. Noting that they've played consecutive road games four times in the last two seasons and didn't drop both of those games on any of those occasions, I look for them to bounce back here on Sunday in Arizona. The Cardinals couldn't have looked any better in last week's rout of the highly-touted Titans in Tennessee. Everything clicked for the Cards in that game but now they're in a much different situation, favored by more than a field goal back at home against an opponent that will be desperate to avoid an 0-2 start to the season. Minnesota certainly didn't play its best game against the Bengals last week but was still right there with a shot to win it in overtime. Yes, the Vikes have numerous injuries on the defensive side of the football, but I think we see the offense bounce back and at the very least keep pace with the Cards on Sunday. Take Minnesota (8*). | |||||||
09-19-21 | Tigers +1.5 v. Rays | 2-0 | Win | 120 | 3 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit +1.5 runs over Tampa Bay at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. In a game that projects to be relatively low-scoring with a total of just 7.5 runs, we'll grab the insurance run with the Tigers at a plus-money return. Detroit dropped the first two games of this series but responded with a 4-3 victory in yesterday's game. That actually puts the Rays in a poor spot here, noting that Tampa Bay has gone 7-14 when coming off a one-run loss this season, outscored by 1.4 runs on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Tigers check in a highly-profitable 10-8 when playing on the road after scoring four runs or less in five consecutive games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.2 runs. Rays starter Shane McClanahan is no sure thing here at home, where he averages less than five innings per start and has posted a 1.38 WHIP in 54 1/3 innings of work this season. Meanwhile, Tigers starter Wily Peralta has posted a 1.28 WHIP in 46 innings pitched on the road this season and has allowed only five earned runs over his last 20 innings of work, covering a span of four starts. Take Detroit +1.5 runs (5*). | |||||||
09-19-21 | Texans v. Browns -12.5 | Top | 21-31 | Loss | -106 | 75 h 47 m | Show |
My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. The fact that the Texans not only beat the Jaguars but completely annihilated them while the Browns gave up 30+ points in a blown opportunity on the road against the Chiefs is helping keep this line under a touchdown on Sunday afternoon. I don't think the oddsmakers can set the line high enough. Let's keep Houston's Week 1 blowout win in perspective. The Texans jumped ahead early in that game and the questionably-coached Jags essentially threw their offensive gameplan out the window. It's not as if the Houston defense was dominant - in fact, it recorded just one sack and four QB hurries against rookie Trevor Lawrence, who was making his first NFL start and was bombing away playing from behind all afternoon long. Offensively, the Texans torched what we knew would be a bad Jags defense - we saw it throughout the preseason and it carried over into Week 1. Here, Houston will be up against an elite Browns defense. Forget the fact that Cleveland gave up 30+ points against the Chiefs - that was obviously an extremely difficult matchup. Here, we can expect the Browns 'D' to take its frustrations out on a Texans offense that boasts below-average talent at all of the skill positions. However, it's actually the Houston defense that I'm most concerned about in this one. We've seen the Browns evolve into a more aggressive offense compared to the early stages of last season. I mentioned the lack of pressure the Texans were able to put on Trevor Lawrence last week, with that in mind, Cleveland QB Baker Mayfield should absolutely feast on Sunday while the backfield tandem of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt takes care of the rest. The Browns run away and hide in this one. Take Cleveland (9*). | |||||||
09-19-21 | Bills -3 v. Dolphins | Top | 35-0 | Win | 100 | 75 h 31 m | Show |
AFC East Game of the Year. My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday. I have a lot of faith in the Bills coaching staff to come up with the right gameplan and for the players to execute that gameplan as they look to avoid an 0-2 start in Miami this Sunday. Let's face it; Buffalo got out-coached and out-gameplanned in its opener against Pittsburgh. The Bills came out expecting the Steelers to play a certain way - particularly on defense where they're known for their blitz-happy nature - and instead they got thrown a screwball and ultimately were unable to prevail in a surprisingly low-scoring affair. While this doesn't look like an ideal bounce-back matchup on paper - certainly not after the Dolphins 'upset' the Patriots in Foxboro last week - I think it's actually an ideal rebound spot for Buffalo. Bills QB Josh Allen is coming off a terrible performance against the Steelers last week - but again, that had more to do with Pittsburgh's improbable scheme than anything else. Here, Allen will be facing perhaps his favorite opponent in the Miami Dolphins. He's faced the Fins four times in the last two seasons, flaming them for nearly 1,000 passing yards (good for over nine yards per pass attempt), 12 touchdowns and just one interception. That's not to mention the fact he's run all over them for over 100 rushing yards and a score on just 17 attempts. Miami executed its own gameplan flawlessly against the Patriots last week. The problem is, this is an offense (and team) that's built for playing with a lead. Should they fall behind in this one, I don't have a lot of trust in QB Tua Tagovailoa or an average ground attack to lead them back, or even sneak in the backdoor. IT seems to me that a lot of bettors are backing the Dolphins thinking they're getting a 'gift' catching a field goal at home. I expect the Bills to put the Fins back in their place. Take Buffalo (10*). | |||||||
09-19-21 | Bengals v. Bears -1 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 16 h 33 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago minus the points over Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Bears couldn't have looked much worse in last Sunday night's blowout loss against the Rams in Los Angeles. That was a brutal spot for the Bears and we took advantage, fading them in the first half. Highly-touted rookie QB Justin Fields' time is coming and perhaps sooner rather than later after he saw the field for a number of plays in last week's game. I do expect him to play a factor in this contest as the Bears look to give their home faithful some hope for the future. The Bengals were a popular fade last week but got some favorable bounces and ultimately prevailed over the Vikings in overtime. I don't believe they'll be so fortunate this week, however. Cincinnati still boasts a subpar defense, not the type of unit we trust to back in a hostile environment on the road. Note that the Bengals won only one road game all of last year, that coming against the hapless Texans in Week 16 (they did pick up a tie in Philadelphia in Week 3. The Bears didn't lose their second game last season until Week 7. Anything other than a victory on Sunday could only be seen as a massive disappointment in Chicago. There are so many areas the Bears can improve on off last week's awful performance - sometimes it's actually easier for a team to rally off a season-opening loss than it is to follow a win. Take Chicago (10*). | |||||||
09-18-21 | Winnipeg v. Edmonton Elks OVER 44 | 37-22 | Win | 100 | 31 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Winnipeg and Edmonton at 9:45 pm et on Saturday. We're once again dealing with a low posted total due to a CFL quarterback injury as Elks QB Trevor Harris will be sidelined. He entered the week leading the CFL in passing yardage so it's obviously a blow. However, if you've watched the Elks play this season and if you've followed my plays regularly you know that I'm not all that high on Harris - not in this offense at least. He's been hesitant to push the football down the field at times and I believe it's cost the Elks some points. Enter rookie Taylor Cornelius. After spending time in the XFL in 2020 he'll get a shot north of the border and I expect him to play aggressively. Cornelius has some familiarity with the Elks offense as head coach Jamie Elizondo was the offensive coordinator with the Tampa Bay Vipers, Cornelius' team in the XFL last year. Cornelius is also a proven performer from his days at Oklahoma State. In fact, he sits tied for the Cowboys all-time record for all-purpose touchdowns in a single season. Who is he tied with? A guy named Barry Sanders. Anyway, I don't expect Cornelius to hold anything back in his CFL starting debut on Saturday. On the flip side, the Blue Bombers have been involved in a number of low-scoring games lately but I look for them to open things up a little bit on offense as well as they match up well against a middle-of-the-pack Elks defense. It should be all systems go with WRs Darvin Adams and Nic Demski getting in a full week of practice for a change, apparently over their nagging injuries. The Bombers haven't had to score a lot of points to secure their last couple of victories but here I envision them getting involved in more of a shootout. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-18-21 | Phillies v. Mets OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and New York at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. We saw a relatively low-scoring game between these two teams last night as the Phillies prevailed by a 4-3 score. Here, I'm expecting more in the way of offense as Philadelphia sends Aaron Nola to the hill against Carlos Carrasco. Note that the 'over' has gone 9-1 with the Phillies playing on the road off three or more consecutive wins this season, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 12.5 runs. Nola averages around 5 2/3 innings per start this season but has lasted less than six innings in seven of his last eight trips to the hill. Meanwhile, Carrasco averages just over four innings per start at home. That's worth considering as both bullpens have been struggling with the Phillies 'pen checking in with a 7.44 ERA and 1.65 WHIP and the Mets relief corps recording a 7.07 ERA and 1.68 WHIP over their last seven games respectively. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-18-21 | Baylor -17.5 v. Kansas | Top | 45-7 | Win | 100 | 31 h 39 m | Show |
CFB Big 12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Baylor minus the points over Kansas at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. One of our biggest plays last week was a fade of Kansas and it worked out perfectly as the Jayhawks were routed in a Friday night road game against Coastal Carolina. Things won't get any easier for Kansas here as it returns home to the site of an inexplicable field-storming from the fans following an ugly 17-14 win over FCS squad South Dakota two weeks ago, hosting the Baylor Bears on Saturday afternoon. Baylor has yet to earn much national attention but with another strong performance here, and perhaps next week at home against Iowa State, it will. The Bears are loaded on both sides of the football. Quarterback was a question mark heading into the season but I like what I've seen from Gerry Bohanon. He hasn't been asked to do too much but has settled in nicely as a game manager, completing 32-of-47 passes for just shy of 400 yards, three touchdowns and most importantly, no interceptions. The Bears offense is all about the ground game and the do of Abram Smith and Trestan Ebner has been electric with both rushing for 100+ yards in each of their first two games this season. Kansas lacks the bulk or talent up front to slow Baylor's dominant rushing attack. On the flip side, the Jayhawks offense has not surprisingly struggled. Dual-threat QB Jake Bean had a couple of nice plays against Coastal Carolina last week but both were with his legs. He's not much of a threat passing the ball and behind a leaky offensive line, he's been running for his life for much of the first two games - sacked six times already. The Bears defense has the experience and talent - strong from the secondary in - to make life miserable on Bean and his rag-tag supporting cast. With a ball-hawking secondary, I don't expect Baylor to leave the back door open in this one. Take Baylor (10*). | |||||||
09-18-21 | Virginia Tech v. West Virginia -2.5 | 21-27 | Win | 100 | 49 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on West Virginia minus the points over Virginia Tech at 12 noon et on Saturday. It's been a dream start for Virginia Tech as it opened with a stunning upset win over North Carolina and followed that up with an expected victory over Middle Tennessee State last week. I'll be honest, I didn't expect the Hokies to be that good this season - in fact, I still don't. I look for them to be handed their first loss of the season in Morgantown on Saturday. Last week's game against Middle Tennessee State was actually close at halftime with the Hokies leading 14-7. That narrow lead was only thanks to some inept play-calling from the Blue Raiders, not to mention some key penalties. I don't expect the Mountaineers to suffer from either of those things on Saturday. West Virginia got dropped from most bettors' radars after falling by a 30-24 score as a road favorite against Maryland. I'm higher on the Terps than most so I don't believe that narrow loss was all that devastating. The Mountaineers actually led that game heading into the fourth quarter, only a defensive breakdown on a long fourth quarter touchdown proved to be their downfall. In the perfect tune-up for this contest, West Virginia rolled to a 66-0 rout of LIU-Brooklyn last week. I liked the way the Mountaineers never took their foot off the gas in that victory, even pouring it on with four second half touchdowns after heading into halftime with a seemingly insurmountable 38-0 lead. With a tough road game against Oklahoma looming next week, West Virginia needs to put its best foot forward here and keep its season on track with a win. Meanwhile, even with a loss, everything the Hokies want to accomplish this season would still be ahead of them with each of their next four games coming in Blacksburg. Take West Virginia (9*). | |||||||
09-18-21 | Cincinnati v. Indiana UNDER 50 | Top | 38-24 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 17 m | Show |
CFB First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'under' between Cincinnati and Indiana at 12 noon et on Saturday. Both of these teams are coming off blowout victories over FCS squads last week with Cincinnati putting up 42 points in a rout of Murray State and Indiana scoring a whopping 56 points in a dismantling of Idaho. Here, I'm expecting a much more tempered offensive start given there's so much on the line for both teams. Cincinnati entered the season with CFP aspirations and it's all still in front of it off to a perfect 2-0 start, albeit against inferior competition. Meanwhile, Indiana opened with a blowout road loss against Iowa and needs to make a statement here as its only other non-conference matchup comes against Western Kentucky next week. This will obviously be Cincinnati's first time playing in front of a packed house on the road in quite some time. I fully expect the focus early on to be on taking care of the football and perhaps sucking some of the life out of what is sure to be a raucous Memorial Stadium. The Bearcats have the offense to do that with NFL QB prospect Desmond Ridder and Alabama transfer RB Jerome Ford, not to mention a wealth of talent at the wide receiver and tight end positions. They will be facing their toughest test of the season, however, as Indiana has built a very capable defense and one that is expected to get back one of its key cogs, CB Jaylin Williams from injury. While the Hoosiers did allow 34 points in their opener against Iowa, the defense wasn't to blame as the Hawkeyes had two pick-sixes in the first half. There was an early defensive breakdown on a long touchdown run early on but form there, the Hoosiers allowed just one more touchdown the rest of the game and that only came thanks to the Hawkeyes being given a short field and proceeding to (barely) convert a fourth down early in the second quarter. On the flip side, the question remains whether Hoosiers QB Michael Penix Jr. is healthy after last year's devastating season-ending injury. Even in last week's 56-14 rout, Penix completed just 11-of-16 passes for 68 yards (he did throw two touchdowns). He ran for a touchdown as well but actually lost 13 yards on four rush attempts in the game. Indiana will be facing an extremely difficult challenge in this one as the Bearcats defense is absolutely loaded and I believe job number one will be taking care of the football after that disastrous affair in Iowa two weeks ago. Expect a heavy dose of the Hoosiers ground game early on as they look to play keep away and control proceedings from the jump. Take the first half under (10*). | |||||||
09-18-21 | Coastal Carolina v. Buffalo UNDER 58 | 28-25 | Win | 100 | 27 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Coastal Carolina and Buffalo at 12 noon et on Saturday. Coastal Carolina is off to a roaring start to the season, having scored a whopping 101 points through two games - both victories. We won with the Chanticleers in last week's 49-22 rout of Kansas. I don't think they're going to put up 40+ points every week, however, and expect Buffalo to offer some resistance here. The Bulls are coming off a 28-3 drubbing on the road against Nebraska last week. They suffered three inexplicable defensive breakdowns, allowing a trio of long Huskers touchdowns in that contest while Nebraska's other TD came thanks to an interception that set it up at the Buffalo one-yard line. With all of that in mind, I expect a fairly conservative offensive gameplan from the Bulls here as they look to effectively shorten the game by leaning on standout RB Kevin Marks to help orchestrate long, clock-churning drives on offense. As for Coastal Carolina, it got caught being a little too aggressive on defense and allowed a pair of long touchdown runs to Kansas QB Jake Bean last week. It won't have to deal with a dual threat quarterback in Buffalo's Kyle VanTrease this week. He has run the ball just twice through two games. VanTrease is more of a game manager than anything else - the Bulls certainly don't want him attempting 50 passes again like he did last week (that had to do with the fact that the Bulls were down big in the second half). Note that one of Buffalo's top receivers, Jovany Ruiz, has been ruled out for this game. He had caught seven passes for over 100 yards and a touchdown this season before leaving last week's game with an undisclosed injury. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
09-18-21 | Cincinnati -170 v. Indiana | 38-24 | Win | 100 | 24 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cincinnati moneyline over Indiana at 12 noon et on Saturday. The importance of this game for both teams can't be understated. Cincinnati came into the season with CFP aspirations and everything is certainly still in front of it after back-to-back blowout wins to open the campaign. This game opens a very difficult two-game stretch that could certainly make or break the Bearcats this season as they'll head to South Bend to face Notre Dame next. The stage certainly isn't too big for Cincinnati. Remember, the Bearcats faced Georgia in what was essentially a road game (albeit in front of just 15,000 fans due to Covid protocols) in the Peach Bowl last season and had control of that contest until the Bulldogs rallied to steal the victory late. Cincinnati is absolutely loaded on both sides of the football. To that point, so is Indiana. The Hoosiers opened the season with a blowout loss on the road against Iowa. That makes getting a win here paramount as it can ill afford to drop another spotlight non-conference game. Indiana caught lightning in a bottle last season, winning six of eight regular season games before falling to Ole Miss in the Outback Bowl. The Hoosiers lost QB Michael Penix Jr. to a devastating season-ending injury last year. He's back this season but there are still questions whether he's all the way back. Now he faces a fierce Bearcats defense that really has no true weakness. I expect the Hoosiers to be playing from behind at some point in this game, which will force them to open things up and take some shots downfield. That's where I look for the Bearcats secondary to turn the lights out. Cincinnati is going to relish the opportunity to silence a packed house at Memorial Stadium. Keep in mind, the Bearcats are an incredible 33-6 since the start of the 2018 season. This is arguably Luke Fickell's best team since he took over the program and I don't expect to see their CFP dreams get dashed in Bloomington on Saturday. Take Cincinnati moneyline (7*). | |||||||
09-17-21 | Mercury v. Storm OVER 156.5 | 85-94 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Phoenix and Seattle at 10 pm et on Friday. The oddsmakers seem to think that Seattle is 'punting' a second straight game as it gives its key cogs some much-needed rest at the end of the regular season. I'm not so sure. One thing we do know is that Phoenix has been held under 80 points in consecutive games for only the third time this season. On all three previous occasions their next game went 'over' the total with the Mercury putting up 91, 89 and 99 points in those three contests. Unlike last Sunday when the Storm essentially 'rolled over' in an 81-53 loss in Los Angeles, I do expect Seattle to be along for the ride in this one. Forget being held in the 50's, prior to their last game, the Storm had only been held under 70 points twice this season. The 'over' cashed in their next game on both occasions with those two contests totaling 166 and 182 points. Yes, Breanna Stewart will be out for the Storm in this one, as will Diana Taurasi for the Mercury. Still, I would consider this a 'defense optional' type of late season affair. Take the over (9*). | |||||||
09-17-21 | A's -115 v. Angels | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oakland over Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Friday. NOTE: We'll make this an 'action' play with the Angels still undecided as to who they'll be starting on the mound in this game. The A's have been as streaky as it gets down the stretch and enter this series off much-needed back-to-back wins over the Royals in Kansas City. For as untrustworthy as they've been, I do like their chances of getting this series with the division-rival Angels off to a positive start on Friday night. Note that Los Angeles is coming off surprising back-to-back wins over the White Sox in Chicago. Yesterday, it exploded for nine runs in a six-run rout of the Sox. That's key as the Angels now fall in a spot where they're 11-17 when coming off a win by four runs or more this season, outscored by an average margin of 1.3 runs in that situation. They also check in a miserable 3-11 when playing at home after allowing three runs or less in consecutive games this season, as is the case here, outscored by 2.1 runs on average in that spot. Oakland will hand the ball to left-hander Cole Irvin. He deserved better than a no-decision in an eventual 8-6 loss in his most recent start as he gave up just two earned runs over seven innings against the Rangers, exiting with a 6-2 lead. Irvin has seemingly figured out the Angels over his last two starts against them, allowing just one earned run in 13 1/3 innings of work. The Angels are still undecided as to who they'll start in this one. Having not won three games in a row since late August, I see this as a spot where L.A. is essentially 'punting' back home off without an off day following an eight-game road trip. Take Oakland (10*). | |||||||
09-17-21 | Maryland -7.5 v. Illinois | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -109 | 38 h 51 m | Show |
CFB Big Ten Game of the Year. My selection is on Maryland minus the points over Illinois at 9 pm et on Friday. We successfully faded Illinois last week in its lopsided loss on the road against Virginia. While it has the benefit of returning home for a primetime game this week, and the opportunity to move to 2-0 in Big Ten play, I look for it to fall short once again. For Maryland, this will be its first conference game of the season after opening with wins over West Virginia and FCS squad Howard. The Terps couldn't have looked much more impressive in those two victories and I really liked what I saw from them in what was admittedly a layup against Howard last week. The Terps poured it on from the opening kick in that one, cruising to a 62-0 rout - a perfect tune-up before playing on a short week here in Champaign. As I noted in last week's analysis of my play against Illinois, it's going to take some time for new head coach Bret Bielema to turn around the program. Most of the key pieces are holdovers from a truly awful Lovie Smith era of Illini football. While Illinois is expected to get QB Brandon Peters back on the field this week, it will still be without RB Mike Epstein. This is a tough matchup against a Terps defense that is loaded in the secondary after going with a bit of a youth movement a year ago. Maryland recorded just two interceptions in five games last season but has already picked off three passes in just two games this year. Offensively, the Terps are rolling and figure to shred a weak Illini defense that just couldn't come up with any key stops against an average Virginia offense last Saturday. Illinois allowed Virginia to score touchdowns on each of its first two drives and the Cavs would have made it three straight scoring drives to open the game were it not for a missed field goal. After scoring a touchdown to close the gap on their first drive of the second half, the Illini defense gave it right back up, and then some, allowing Virginia to march down the field on two consecutive touchdown drives to put the game out of reach. The strength of the Illinois defense is up front but that doesn't bode all that well against a rejuvenated Terps offense that has shown the ability to blow the top off of opposing secondaries, with QB Taulia Tagovailoa throwing for well over 600 yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions through two games. Take Maryland (10*). | |||||||
09-17-21 | Calgary v. Hamilton OVER 43.5 | Top | 17-23 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Calgary and Hamilton at 7 pm et on Friday. The Ti-Cats are obviously in a tough spot here as they go with third-string QB David Watford with both Dane Evans and Jeremiah Masoli injured. They're also missing their top three wide receivers and likely their starting running back as well. It's going to be awfully tough to gameplan offensively for this one but with so many unknowns, I prefer to play the 'over' with the Stamps offense capable of doing much of the heavy lifting. Stamps QB Bo Levi Mitchell returned from a broken fibula to guide his team to a much-needed 32-16 win over the Elks last week. He wasn't quite as sharp as we're accustomed to seeing but with a game under his belt and another full week of practice I look for a big performance from Mitchell here. While the Stamps defense recorded seven sacks against statue-esque Elks QB Trevor Harris in last week's victory, they'll likely find it a little more difficult getting to Ti-Cats QB Watford, who has dual-threat capabilities. I expect the Ti-Cats to design plenty of plays that allow Watford to move around in the pocket and give his receivers time to get open down the field. With Hamilton likely to be playing in catch-up mode for much of this game, look for some soft coverage from the Stamps beatable secondary. It's worth noting that despite all of its injuries, Hamilton is still currently listed as a short favorite in this game. I believe the potential is there for the Ti-Cats to keep this one competitive and for that to happen, they're going to need to put some points on the board. We've seen a bit of a shift to higher-scoring results after 'unders' ruled the first month of the CFL season. Expect more of the same on Friday night. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-16-21 | Giants v. Washington Football Team UNDER 40.5 | Top | 29-30 | Loss | -103 | 31 h 40 m | Show |
NFC East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Washington at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. This is a very low total by today's NFL standards but I'm not sure it's been set low enough given the state of both of these offenses, not to mention the familiarity between the two teams and the fact they'll be playing on a short week. We saw three extremely high-scoring primetime games in Week 1 but that was to be expected given the matchups. Here, we should see a much different brand of football on display to kick off Week 2. The Giants offense is just a week into the season and it already looks downright scary - not in a good way. There was nothing creative or explosive about the G-Men offense against Denver and while that was to be expected given the strength of the Broncos lies on the defensive side of the football, this isn't much easier of a matchup for New York, if at all. With major o-line issues there's simply very little time for plays to develop before QB Daniel Jones' pocket collapses, leading to lots of short dump-off passes. RB Saquon Barkley clearly isn't all the way back from last year's devastating injury, although I do expect him to play a larger role in this week's offensive gameplan after getting only 11 touches in last Sunday's loss. Given Washington's vaunted pass rush, we can expect G-Men offensive coordinator Jason Garrett to develop a fairly conservative gameplan for Jones and the offense here, simply looking to take care of the football and sustain some drives to effectively shorten the game. Washington's offensive prospects don't look a whole lot better than New York's with QB Taylor Heinicke taking over for an injured Ryan Fitzpatrick. Heinicke won't take nearly as many chances as Fitz and this is a sneaky-tough matchup against a quality Giants secondary anyway. Washington RB Antonio Gibson is one of its biggest home run threats, along with WR Terry McLaurin, but there's still questions as to whether Gibson can take care of the football after he coughed up a pair of fumbles last week. Regardless, the Football Team should focus on churning out long, ground-oriented, clock-eating drives when on offense in this one as the Giants biggest vulnerability lies in its run defense. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-16-21 | Ohio v. UL-Lafayette -20 | 14-49 | Win | 100 | 31 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on UL-Lafayette minus the points over Ohio at 8 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams are off to somewhat disappointing starts this season but there's a difference. While Ohio is winless at 0-2 - dropping two straight winnable matchups - Louisiana-Lafayette did manage to reach the win column last week, albeit in a closer than expected affair against FCS squad Nicholls State. For the Ragin' Cajuns, everything is still in front of them. Keep in mind, they opened the season ranked in the top-25 before dropping a lopsided decision on the road against Texas. We've yet to see them turn in their best effort, but I think we will see it on Thursday night in this nationally-televised affair against Ohio. The Ragin' Cajuns return plenty of talent from last year's team - on both sides of the football. We've yet to see their ground game really get rolling but they are expected to have offensive lineman Carlos Rubio back from injury on Friday and I do think it's only a matter of time before they start finding some rushing success. The passing game is fine with fifth-year QB Levi Lewis at the helm and a wealth of talent at the wide receiver position. Even without top-two WR Jalen Williams making a single catch, Lewis still threw for over 300 yards and a pair of touchdowns in last week's 27-24 win. The defense is hoping to have standout LB Ferrod Gardner back on the field after he missed last week's game due to an ankle injury but even if he can't go there's plenty of depth at the position. I'm making this play assuming he won't be able to play but if he can we'll consider it a bonus. Ohio desperately needed a win over FCS squad Duquesne last week but fell short. It's been a miserable start to the post-Frank Solich era and I don't see the Bobcats turning it around here. The fact that one of their biggest gamebreakers on offense, WR Isiah Cox, remains suspended for disciplinary reasons can't sit well with a team that appears in desperate need of a spark. The Bobcats have a tremendous 1-2 punch in the backfield with RBs De'Montre Tuggle and O'Shaan Allison but their effectiveness is limited when they can't find a way to build a lead. They scored a kick return touchdown to open last week's game against Duquesne and then added another TD on their next drive. From there, they didn't find the end zone again until nearly five minutes into the fourth quarter. The stagnant nature of the Ohio offense was really nothing new as it didn't find the end zone even once in a season-opening 29-9 loss to Syracuse. That's the same Orange squad that just lost 17-7 against Rutgers in its home-opener last week. While the line may appear fairly steep in this game, I simply feel that Louisiana-Lafayette is considerably better than it has shown through two games and will take full advantage of this spotlight matchup against a reeling Ohio squad on Thursday night. Take Louisiana-Lafayette (10*). | |||||||
09-16-21 | Padres v. Giants -230 | 7-4 | Loss | -230 | 7 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco over San Diego at 3:45 pm et on Thursday. The Padres got the better of the Giants last night, snapping San Francisco's nine-game winning streak in the process. Here, I look for the Giants to get right back on track behind underrated starter Kevin Gausman. San Francisco checks in 11-2 with Gausman on the hill in day games this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 3.3 runs. Better still, the Giants are 10-1 with Gausman starting against division opponents this year, outscoring opponents by a whopping 3.3 runs on average. Also note that they're 11-2 when coming off a game where they gave up eight runs or more this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 3.5 runs in that spot. While it could be argued that the Giants were 'punting' last night's game with Dominic Leone on the hill. Here, the Padres are handing the ball to Pierce Johnson who has made just one previous start, which lasted just one inning against the Dodgers in an eventual 5-2 loss back in August. San Diego is still in the thick of the N.L. Wild Card hunt but it doesn't seem as if anyone wants to stake claim to one of those spots, the Padres included having dropped five of their last six contests. Take San Francisco (5*). | |||||||
09-16-21 | Angels v. White Sox -189 | 9-3 | Loss | -189 | 5 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Los Angeles at 2:10 pm et on Thursday. The White Sox have had a tough time stringing together consecutive wins lately, doing so just once in the last two weeks. They have remained strong coming off a loss, however, and I expect them to rebound from last night's 3-2 setback on Thursday afternoon. Note that Chicago has lost back-to-back games just once since August 24th. The White Sox check in an incredible 16-2 when playing at home after scoring two runs or less this season, as is the case here, having outscored opponents by an average margin of 4.0 runs. They're also 12-1 when playing at home following a loss by two runs or less, outscoring opponents by 2.5 runs on average in that spot. With neither of today's starters likely to work deep into this game, the bullpens should play a major factor in the outcome and there, the White Sox have a considerable advantage. The Angels bullpen has had to log 32 1/3 innings over the last seven games, posting a collective 5.29 ERA and 1.58 WHIP over that stretch. Meanwhile, the White Sox bullpen has recorded a 1.57 ERA and 1.08 WHIP over that same period. Take Chicago (5*). | |||||||
09-15-21 | Rockies v. Braves -187 | 3-2 | Loss | -187 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta over Colorado at 7:20 pm et on Wednesday. The Braves are suddenly struggling a bit having dropped two of their last three games against the lowly Marlins and Rockies. I expect them to come up with an answer on Wednesday, however, as they try to even up this series with Colorado at home. Note that the Braves have outscored opponents by 1.6 runs on average when revenging a one-run loss this season, as is the case here, with that situation coming up 23 times previously. Better still, they've outscored opponents by 1.8 runs on average when revenging a loss against an opponent as a home favorite this season - that spot has come up 20 times previously. Finally, Atlanta checks in 46-26 after losing two of its last three contests over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an impressive average margin of 2.5 runs. On the flip side, the Rockies are a miserable 2-14 when playing on the road after winning four or five of their last six games this season, outscored by 2.8 runs on average in that spot. Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela hasn't been the same pitcher on the road this season compared to at home, posting a 4.40 ERA and 1.43 WHIP with the Rockies having dropped nine of his 11 starts. Meanwhile, Braves starter Huascar Ynoa has made seven home starts, recording an impressive 2.45 ERA and 0.84 WHIP. While the Rockies bullpen continues to struggling, having posted a 5.90 ERA and 1.41 WHIP over their last seven games, the Braves 'pen has recorded a 1.25 WHIP over that same stretch. Take Atlanta (6*). | |||||||
09-15-21 | Reds -135 v. Pirates | 4-5 | Loss | -135 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cincinnati over Pittsburgh at 6:35 pm et on Wednesday. The pressure is on the Reds right now as they've now dropped three games in a row to fall a half-game back of the second N.L. Wild Card spot. I look for them to finally get back on track on Wednesday night in Pittsburgh. Last night, Cincinnati fell behind 3-0 in the first inning and was never really able to recover. It did make a valiant comeback effort after spotting the Buccos a 6-0 lead, however, ultimately falling by a 6-5 score. The Pirates bullpen was once again awful against a division opponent, noting that group entered last night's contest sporting a collective 4.90 ERA and 1.38 WHIP with only five saves converted and eight blown against N.L. Central foes. Meanwhile, the Reds bullpen did all it could to keep them in the game, tossing 3 2/3 hitless, shutout innings. Despite last night's victory, the Pirates are still a miserable 18-47 against division opponents this season, outscored by right around 2.0 runs on average. Chalk this up as a random trend if you'd like but Pittsburgh checks in a ridiculous 2-20 in Wednesday games this season, outscored by an average margin of 3.1 runs. The Reds have gone 28-16 when playing on the road after losing three of their last four games over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.9 runs. Better still, they're 23-10 after losing six or seven of their last eight games over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.1 runs on average in that spot. Tonight's starter for Pittsburgh is Mitch Keller. He's been awful against the Reds, facing them three times since the start of last season, allowing 14 earned runs on 16 hits while striking out and walking 10 in just 11 1/3 innings of work. The Reds won all three of those games by a combined 34-8 margin. Meanwhile, the Reds are 7-4 in Vlad Gutierrez's 11 road starts this season where he has posted a 3.43 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. Take Cincinnati (9*). | |||||||
09-14-21 | Padres v. Giants OVER 9 | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between San Diego and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a high-scoring game between these two teams last night with the Giants doing most of the heavy-lifting in a 9-1 victory. I'm anticipating another relatively high-scoring affair as the reeling Padres look to break out of their funk on Tuesday night. Note that the Giants are as hot at the plate as any team in baseball right now, having scored a whopping 8.9 runs per game during their current eight-game winning streak. Here, they'll face a Padres club that has posted a 10-1 o/u record when playing on the road after scoring one run or less in a loss to a division opponent over the last two seasons, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 13.1 runs. In fact, the 'over' is 14-4 with the Padres playing on the road after scoring one run or less in their last game over the last two seasons, good for an average total of 11.6 runs. On the flip side of that, the Giants have posted a 15-3 o/u mark when coming off a win by six runs or more against a division opponent over the last three seasons, with that spot averaging a total of 12.8 runs. While tonight's Giants starter, Anthony DeSclafani, has generally trended to the 'under', the 'over' has actually gone 9-1 in his last 10 home starts at night with those contests totaling an average of 11.2 runs. The Padres will mercifully trot out Jake Arrieta for another turn in the rotation despite his massive struggles. With Arrieta unlikely to work deep into this game we should see plenty from an overworked San Diego bullpen that has posted a collective 5.84 ERA over the last seven games. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-14-21 | Cubs v. Phillies OVER 9 | 6-3 | Push | 0 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. Believe it or not, despite yet another series loss - this one coming at home against the lowly Rockies - the Phillies are still in the hunt for an N.L. Wild Card spot, currently sitting just 2.5 games back of the second spot. Here, I expect to see plenty of offensive fireworks as they open an important three-game set against the Cubs. Note that the 'over' has gone 9-1 with the Cubs seeking revenge for a home loss by six runs or more this season, as is the case here, with that situation producing a whopping average total of 15.6 runs. Meanwhile, the 'over' has cashed at an incredible 16-3 clip in Phillies starter Kyle Gibson's September outings over the course of his career, good for an average total of 11.7 runs. The wheels have come off for Gibson lately as he's been tagged for 11 earned runs on 15 hits in just 10 innings of work over his last two starts. The Cubs got their bats going a bit on their most recent homestand and should benefit from playing at hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park this week. Note that both bullpens have been unreliable lately with the Phillies relief corps posting a collective 7.86 ERA and 1.63 WHIP over their last seven games and Cubs relievers combining to record a 5.52 ERA and 1.45 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the over (9*). | |||||||
09-14-21 | Fever v. Dream -2.5 | 78-85 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Indiana at 7 pm et on Tuesday. This is one of the only times I've backed the Dream this season but I believe the situation warrants such a play. Both of these teams are simply playing out the string at this point. However, it's Atlanta that comes in having gone 4-1 ATS over its last five games and has held all five of those opponents to 43.8% or worse shooting. Contrast that with the Fever, who have allowed five of their last six opponents to shoot 47.5% or better from the field with two of their last three shooting 52.3% or better. Indiana simply doesn't have a lot of healthy bodies at this point, essentially down to a seven-player rotation, getting little scoring production from its bench. Meanwhile, Atlanta should have Odyssey Sims back in the lineup tonight. The Dream are missing a number of key cogs as well, but I like the move to insert highly-touted first round draft pick Aari McDonald into the starting lineup last game. She can potentially give the Dream a bit of a spark in the final week of the season after struggling for much of the campaign. While she knocked down just 3-of-12 shot attempts last time out, all three of those made field goals were from three-point range. Note that Atlanta has now been held under 80 points in eight straight games. Prior to its current stretch, it had yet to be held under 80 points in three consecutive games this season. Look for the Dream to end that streak of futility here tonight, noting that the Fever check in allowing a whopping 88.4 points per game on the road this season, where they've been outscored by just shy of 13 points on average. Take Atlanta (9*). | |||||||
09-14-21 | Reds -155 v. Pirates | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -155 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
N.L. Central Game of the Month. My selection is on Cincinnati over Pittsburgh at 6:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Reds limp into this series after a disappointing series loss against one of the teams they're trying to fend off in the N.L. Wild Card race, the St. Louis Cardinals. Here, I feel they're well-positioned to bounce back against a Pirates club that they've owned this season, taking nine of 10 previous meetings. Note that the Reds are an incredible 11-1 in games where Wade Miley has stated and they've been priced as a favorite -110 or higher this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 5.0 runs in that spot. They're also a solid 8-2 when playing on the road after losing three of their last four games this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 2.0 runs in that situation. That's not to mention their 13-4 record when playing on the road following an off day over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by 2.1 runs on average. Meanwhile, the Pirates are a miserable 16-44 when playing with double-revenge this season, outscored by an average margin of 2.5 runs in that situation. They've also been outscored by 1.2 runs on average when coming off two wins in their last three games, with that situation coming up 41 times previously this season. Reds starter Wade Miley is far more likely to work deep into this game than Dillon Peters for the Buccos. Note that the Pittsburgh bullpen has recorded just five saves while blowing eight against division opponents while Cincinnati has converted 21 saves while blowing 10 against N.L. Central foes. Take Cincinnati (10*). | |||||||
09-14-21 | Indians +1.5 v. Twins | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland +1.5 runs over Minnesota at 3:10 pm et on Tuesday. While we're being asked to lay significant juice to get the insurance run with the Indians here, I believe the price is warranted. Note that the Indians enter this series on the heels of a three-game sweep at the hands of the Brewers. They haven't lost four games in a row since back in the first week of July. Only once previously this season have they lost four consecutive games by more than a run - something they'll be looking to avoid here. Note that the Indians are 15-3 when coming off a game in which they scored one run or less this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.9 runs in that spot. They're also 11-3 when coming off a loss by six runs or more this season, outscoring opponents by 2.2 runs on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Twins were involved in a make-up game at Yankee Stadium yesterday, blowing a late 5-0 lead in an eventual 6-5 extra innings defeat. They're just 35-41 as a favorite this season, outscored by an average margin of 0.2 runs. When coming off three losses in their last four games this season, they check in 16-32, outscored by 1.8 runs on average in that spot. Twins rookie starter Joe Ryan flirted with a perfect game against the Indians just last week. Here, I expect Cleveland to do a better job of getting to the rookie in their second look. Indians starter Triston McKenzie has been their most reliable starter over the last month or so and checks in with a sparkling 1.42 ERA and 0.53 WHIP over his last three starts and a 1.12 WHIP in 11 road outings this season. Of course, grabbing the insurance run becomes even more helpful when you consider this is only a seven-inning game (the first half of a double-header). Take Cleveland +1.5 runs (5*). | |||||||
09-13-21 | Red Sox v. Mariners +1.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
A.L. Non-Division Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle +1.5 runs over Boston at 10:10 pm et on Monday. I'm anticipating a tightly-contested affair as these two teams battle for American League Wild Card positioning in Monday's series-opener in Seattle. The Mariners of course suffered a major blow to their chances by dropping a pair of games against the lowly D'Backs over the weekend. They're by no means out of the race, however, as they sit just three games back of the second Wild Card spot. Note that the Red Sox have actually been outscored by an average margin of 0.9 runs over their last 33 road games. Meanwhile, the Mariners check in 20-15 after losing four or five of their last six games this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.3 runs in that situation. The Red Sox are just 37-48 after scoring two runs or less in their last game over the last three seasons. While they have outscored opponents on average in that spot, it has been by the slimmest of margins, just 0.1 runs. Red Sox starter Eduardo Rodriguez has been as uneven as it gets this season, and particularly of late, allowing 14 earned runs in 20 1/3 innings over his last four starts. Mariners rookie Logan Gilbert went through a miserable three-start stretch in late-August but has since turned things around, allowing just two earned runs in 9 1/3 innings over his last two outings with the Mariners splitting those two games - the lone loss came by a single run. Factoring in the +1.5 run-line, the M's are an incredible 16-2 in Gilbert's last 18 starts overall. Take Seattle +1.5 runs (10*). | |||||||
09-13-21 | Ravens v. Raiders OVER 50 | Top | 27-33 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
AFC Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Baltimore and Las Vegas at 8:15 pm et on Monday. The first Monday nighter of the 2021 season matches up two teams that will feel some urgency to get off to a positive start after watching their division mates turn in (mostly) impressive performances on Sunday. For the Ravens, they're in a loaded AFC North that saw both the Steelers and Bengals prevail yesterday while the Browns hung tough but ultimately fell by the narrowest of margins on the road against the two-time defending AFC champion Chiefs. Meanwhile, the Raiders will have to contend with an improved AFC West this year - all three of their divisional counterparts secured victories on the first Sunday of the season. With all of that being said, I don't expect to see either of these teams ease their way into proceedings on Monday night. Yes, the Ravens have been ravaged by key injuries heading into the season, particularly at the running back position. I do feel this is very much a 'plug-and-play' offense, however, that obviously revolves round the play of dual-threat QB Lamar Jackson. We can expect RB Ty'son Williams to step in and fill the void left by J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards and Justice Hill. With the starting job his for the taking, expect him to make a splash against a very manageable opponent on Monday. Of course, Jackson is the real key here and I expect him to have a field day against a Raiders defense that is weak at the linebacker position and also depth-shy in the secondary. With all of the changes Las Vegas made leading up to and during training camp at the linebacker and cornerback positions it's obvious that the organization has reasons for concern at those spots. Ravens TE Mark Andrew figures to be in for a big night matched up against a linebacking corps that should struggle in coverage. Las Vegas did upgrade its defensive line with the addition of Yannick Ngakoue from the Ravens in free agency. However, he's on his fourth team since 2019 and I think there's a reason for that. The Ravens weren't willing to pay up to re-sign him after he was relatively ineffective for them last season. The Raiders offense was actually pretty fun to watch last season, noting that they scored 30+ points on seven different occasions. Known for his lack of aggressiveness throwing the ball down field, we saw QB Derek Carr show some improvement in that regard last season. The Raiders used a first round pick to draft speedster Henry Ruggs in 2020, determined to stretch the field more to keep up with the likes of the high-octane Chiefs offense, and that they did, even picking up a 40-32 win at Arrowhead Stadium last October. TE Darren Waller is the real focal point of the offense, however, and I would certainly anticipate a strong performance from him in a likely high-volume spot here in the opener. Note that the 'over' has gone a perfect 6-0 with the Raiders listed as a 3.5-9-point underdog over the last two seasons with those games totaling an average of 64.7 points. The 'over' has also gone 9-2 in the Raiders last 11 games played on turf with those contests averaging 57.6 total points. John Harbaugh's Ravens teams have had plenty of success lighting up the Raiders defense over the years, noting that in four meetings between 2015 and 2018, Baltimore put up 33, 27, 30 and 34 points. Expect more of the same on Monday night. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-13-21 | Wings v. Aces UNDER 162.5 | 75-85 | Win | 100 | 4 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Las Vegas at 3 pm et on Monday. This may look like a fairly low total for a game involving the high-flying Aces, however I believe the spot sets up well as a lower-scoring than expected affair. Note that Las Vegas enters this game having allowed more than 80 points in three straight games - the first time that's happened all season. On five previous occasions they've given up 80+ points in consecutive games and in their next contest, the 'under' has gone 4-1. Here, they should be able to right the ship defensively against a Wings squad playing on the road on just one day of rest after a hard-fought one-point victory at home against the Liberty on Saturday. The Wings are expected to be without two key cogs in Satou Sabally and Moriah Jefferson on Monday afternoon. Note that while the Aces are known for their offense they've actually held opponents to just north of 41% shooting here at home this season. Dallas would be well-served to do everything it can to slow the pace in this one, knowing that it's unlikely to stay competitive in a track meet with the Aces. It's interesting to note that Dallas has actually been a better defensive team on the road than at home this season, holding opponents to 43.5% shooting with the 'under' cashing at a 9-4-2 clip. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-13-21 | Twins v. Yankees OVER 10 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and New York at 2:05 pm et on Monday. A direct carry-over to a high-scoring series against the cross-town rival Mets over the weekend, I'm anticipating plenty of offensive fireworks as the Yankees return to the Bronx to host the Twins on Monday afternoon. Note that the 'over' has gone a perfect 7-0 with the Twins playing on the road revenging a road loss by six runs or more this season, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 12.6 total runs. The 'over' is also 21-11 with the Twins playing with double-revenge (lost their last two games against their opponent) this season, good for an average total of 10.9 runs. One final 'revenge' angle here; Minnesota has posted a 13-3 o/u mark when revenging a loss against an opponent where they scored one run or less over the last three seasons, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of 12.2 runs. The Yankees are giving up 5.7 runs per contest when playing at home after losing three of their last four games this season. In 12 previous situations where they've come off three consecutive 'over' results, their games have totaled an average of 10.5 runs. We should anticipate plenty of scoring opportunities this afternoon with both starters, John Gant for the Twins and Luis Gil for the Yankees, struggling with command issues. Gant has handed out three walks or more in 12 of his 18 starts this season. He owns an ugly 1.55 WHIP in 12 road starts. Gil walked just three hitters combined in his first two big league starts but has issued a whopping 11 walks, including seven in his most recent outing, over his last two starts, covering a span of just eight innings. Also note that the Yankees once-reliable but more recently overworked bullpen has posted a collective 6.13 ERA and 1.74 WHIP over their last seven games. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-12-21 | Storm v. Sparks OVER 154 | Top | 53-81 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
WNBA Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Los Angeles at 9 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'under' in the Sparks most recent game, a 75-57 loss here at home against Connecticut. I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'over' on Sunday as the Sparks welcome the defending champion Storm. Seattle is going to be without Breanna Stewart for this one and likely for the remainder of the regular season. I'm confident enough in the Storm's scoring depth that they can still hang a crooked number on the scoreboard in this one. Note that Los Angeles has actually held six straight opponents to under 80 points - by far its longest such streak of the season. I expect that streak to come to an end here with Seattle rolling into this game having scored 85 and 105 points in its last two games - both double-digit victories. Note that the Storm are averaging 86.5 points per game on the road this season. The real question here is whether the Sparks can contribute enough offensively to help this one 'over' the total. I believe they can. They're coming off a woeful 2-of-10 three-point shooting effort against the Sun. Keep in mind, L.A. averages six made threes on 20 attempts at home this season. On the flip side, the Storm will give up their share of threes, allowing nine made on 23 attempts per game on the road this season. With the Sparks having scored less than 60 points in consecutive games - the first time that's happened all season - I look for them to make a concerted effort to push the pace a little bit in this one, noting that they're essentially just playing out the string at this point. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-12-21 | Bears v. Rams -7.5 | Top | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
NFL First Half Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points first half over Chicago at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. I can't help but feel Bears head coach Matt Nagy is effectively 'punting' the season-opener against the Rams in Week 1, frustratingly sticking with veteran Andy Dalton as his starting quarterback, leaving electric first round pick Justin Fields relegated to clipboard duty on Sunday night. That suits our purposes just fine as the Rams should control proceedings on both sides of the football. I can't imagine anything other than a limited playbook for Dalton, who will be operating behind a makeshift offensive line with a supporting cast that lacks gamebreaking ability. Dalton had moderate success taking over from an injured Dak Prescott last season but was gifted a loaded Cowboys offense in that situation. Allen Robinson is a stud at wide receiver but he's likely to be offered up blanket coverage from the Rams secondary. Los Angeles simply didn't give up big plays to opposing passing games last year and there's little reason to anticipate anything different here in 2021. On the flip side, Rams QB Matt Stafford couldn't ask for a better opponent to debut against than the familiar Bears. Unlike in Detroit, here he'll be afforded the opportunity to work behind an elite offensive line that gets back all five starters from last season. Chicago's defense is considerably stronger up front than it is at the back-end and that spells trouble in today's pass-happy NFL. Stafford has enough mobility to evade the likes of Khalil Mack and find his wealth of targets down field. Expect Rams receivers Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods to find plenty of open field to work with on Sunday night. Here, we'll play the first half only simply due to the ever-so-slight chance that Nagy turns to Fields should things really go sideways in the first half with Dalton. Take Los Angeles first half (10*). | |||||||
09-12-21 | Packers -173 v. Saints | 3-38 | Loss | -173 | 19 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Green Bay moneyline over New Orleans at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. This is a tough way for the Saints to start the post-Drew Brees era as they draw the Packers at a neutral site in Jacksonville due to the devastation caused by Hurricane Ida in New Orleans. Given the fact that they just traded with the Texans for Bradley Roby to solidify their secondary, it's not difficult to figure out where the Saints defensive weakness lies. With that being said, it's difficult to envision a scenario where New Orleans manages to slow the Packers outstanding passing attack on Sunday. Meanwhile, Saints QB Jameis Winston has big shoes to fill and not a lot of talent around him to work with as Michael Thomas starts the season on the injured list. WR Marquez Callaway flashed during the preseason but that was largely against defensive backups. Here he'll be contending with one of the league's best secondaries. I like the chances of Saints do-it-all RB Alvin Kamara having a big game, but not enough to carry the New Orleans offense all on his own. If the Saints are going to win this game they're going to need a big performance from Winston (and perhaps Taysom Hill as well). I just don't believe he's capable of out-dueling Aaron Rodgers in this Week 1 showcase matchup. Take Green Bay moneyline (8*). | |||||||
09-12-21 | Rockies v. Phillies OVER 9 | 5-4 | Push | 0 | 3 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and Philadelphia at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. The Phillies answered back after dropping the first two games in this series, recording a 6-1 victory last night. Here, I'm anticipating a higher-scoring affair as the Rockies and Phillies close out their four-game set. Note that the 'over' is 16-7 when the Phillies come off a win by four runs or more this season with those contests totaling an average of 11.0 runs. While Philadelphia is giving up 4.7 runs per game overall this season, it allows 5.3 runs per game when coming off a win. Worse still, the Phillies have allowed 5.9 runs per game when today's starter, Aaron Nola, takes the ball off a team win. That situation has come up 16 times with those games totaling an average of 10.2 runs. Finally, note that Philadelphia has allowed an average of 5.7 runs after giving up two runs or less in its last game this season, as is the case here. That spot has produced an average total of 9.5 runs. As for the Rockies, we know they've struggled to score runs on the road this season, averaging just 3.4 runs per game away from Coors Field. That hasn't necessarily been the case lately, however, as they check in averaging 5.1 runs per contest over their last 12 road games. With the potential of one, if not both of today's starters getting hit hard and two unreliable bullpens in the mix as well - note that the Rockies 'pen owns a 6.16 ERA and 1.50 ERA over the last seven games while Phillies relievers have posted a 6.32 ERA and 1.31 WHIP over the same stretch with the two 'pens combining to record just one save while blowing three over that period - I'm expecting plenty of offensive fireworks in this one. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
09-12-21 | Jaguars -3 v. Texans | Top | 21-37 | Loss | -120 | 19 h 19 m | Show |
AFC South Game of the Year. My selection is on Jacksonville minus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Texans are going to be bad. Really bad. With that being said, Trevor Lawrence got off to a slow start running the Jags offense in the preseason (when everyone was paying attention) and most bettors are fairly low on Jacksonville so we're able to grab the Jags laying a very reasonable number of points in Week 1. I believe this line will look awfully short by comparison as the season unfolds and we realize just how bad the Texans are. The Jags were willing to trade capable backup QB Gardner Minshew for a reason. They're confident in Lawrence's abilities and I think we should be too, especially after watching him finally find some rhythm and a solid rapport with his receivers over the final couple of preseason games. Jacksonville boasts a solid wide receiving corps with veteran Marvin Jones, dynamic sophomore Laviska Shenault and D.J. Chark. While the season-ending injury to rookie RB Travis Etienne hurts, the Jags have solid depth at that position and I expect RB James Robinson to relish the opportunity to once again stake claim to the starting job. While much will be made about the awful Texans offense, their defense could be even worse. Trading away CB Bradley Roby was further evidence of the Texans intent to tank this season. The less said about the Jacksonville defense the better, but there's no question this is a favorable opening week matchup against a Texans offense that is bereft of dynamic talent with journeyman QB Tyrod Taylor being asked to shoulder the load, with a backfield that consists of the ghosts of David Johnson, Mark Ingram and Broncos castoff Phillip Lindsay. Quarterbacks drafted first overall have had very little success starting in Week 1 but I believe this is a unique situation given the matchup. Take Jacksonville (10*). | |||||||
09-12-21 | 49ers -7.5 v. Lions | 41-33 | Win | 100 | 19 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. I think it's a good idea not to overthink this one as the 49ers are poised for a tremendous bounce-back campaign following an injury-ravaged 2020 season while the Lions are just hoping to win a game or two as they field a rag-tag group led by polarizing first-year head coach Dan Campbell. While I don't love the prospect of Jimmy Garoppolo leading the 49ers offense, I think it works just fine here in Week 1. The fact is, highly-touted first round draft pick Trey Lance was turnover-prone during the preseason and this probably wasn't going to be an ideal spot for him to make his first career start. Garoppolo is certainly deserving of holding on to the starting job for now and should do just fine against a well below-average Lions defense. The real advantage the 49ers should have in this contest is on the defensive side of the football. With all of their key cogs back healthy after a disastrous 2020 campaign, I expect this unit to make up for lost time against a woeful Lions offense. Joey Bosa and Arik Armstead are poised for a monster game against the Lions overmatched offensive line and we know how poorly QB Jared Goff has performed when under duress during his time with the Rams. You probably couldn't have picked a worse landing spot for Goff as the Lions simply don't have an o-line capable of pass protecting with any consistency. By halftime, I suspect this line will look awfully short while the 49ers dominant defense should help keep the back door held firmly shut in the fourth quarter. Take San Francisco (9*). | |||||||
09-12-21 | Jets v. Panthers OVER 44.5 | Top | 14-19 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 59 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Carolina at 1 pm et on Sunday. This one has the potential to be one of the more sneaky-entertaining, high-scoring games of the week as the Jets travel to Carolina to take on the Panthers. Carolina's offense was woeful last season, largely due to an early-season injury to do-it-all RB Christian McCaffrey but also as a result of game manager Teddy Bridgewater playing quarterback. While Sam Darnold comes to Carolina with little reason for optimism based on his performance as a New York Jet, I believe Darnold could actually thrive in this Panthers offense. Unlike in New York, Darnold now has a wealth of talent to work with, starting with McCaffrey in the backfield, but also former Jet WR Robby Anderson, big play threat D.J. Moore and promising rookie Terrace Marshall Jr. The Jets secondary should be no match at all for the Panthers receiving corps. Meanwhile, the New York pass rush took a massive hit with the likes of Carl Lawson, Vinny Curry and Jarrad Davis all sidelined due to injuries. The real question here is whether first round pick QB Zach Wilson can do enough in the Jets offense to help this one 'over' the total. I believe he can. While some will chalk up his preseason success to playing against second and third-string defenders, I think we'll see some carry-over effect. Wilson has built up a strong enough rapport with his receivers, most notably former Titan Corey Davis, and should be able to take advantage of a Panthers secondary that should prove to be its defensive weakness, particularly in the early stages of the season. I wouldn't count on the Jets banging their heads against the wall trying to run the football in this one. If anything, look for some designed runs from Wilson as he provides the offensive spark the Jets have so desperately needed for so many years. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-12-21 | Steelers v. Bills -6.5 | Top | 23-16 | Loss | -103 | 19 h 37 m | Show |
AFC Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over Pittsburgh at 1 pm et on Sunday. After taking a deeper dive into this intriguing Week 1 AFC showdown, I really like the way it sets up for the Bills. Pittsburgh has the potential to be a very good team this year in what figures to be the 'last ride' for the tandem of head coach Mike Tomlin and QB Ben Roethlisberger. I say that not because Tomlin's job is in jeopardy but rather due to the clock ticking on Big Ben's career. The real concern for the Steelers lies in two different areas - on the offensive line and on defense. The o-line should be in for a nightmarish day trying to keep Big Ben upright against a fierce Bills pass rush that only got better through the draft. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh's secondary - outside of standout Minkah Fitzpatrick - figures to take a step back with tough corners Steven Nelson and Mike Hilton moving on in the offseason. Also of note, one of the Steelers best defenders and pass rushers, Stephon Tuitt starts the season on the shelf. The Bills are quite simply loaded on both sides of the football and will be looking to make a real statement in this tough-on-paper opening week matchup against the Steelers. Some are down on Bills WR Cole Beasley but despite his concerning Covid vaccine stance, he figures to play a major factor here playing second-fiddle to superstar Stefon Diggs. It's easy to forget that these two teams just met in Week 14 last season with the Bills having little trouble prevailing by a double-digit margin, 26-15. A similar outcome is well within the realm of possibility here. Take Buffalo (10*). | |||||||
09-12-21 | Vikings -153 v. Bengals | 24-27 | Loss | -153 | 18 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is in Minnesota moneyline over Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. Rather than lay the field goal with the Vikings here, I'll back them on the moneyline, simply due to the back door potential that I feel the Bengals possess. Minnesota is well-positioned to return to its winning ways here in 2021 with all of its key cogs on both sides of the football healthy entering the new season. This is certainly a favorable matchup for the Vikes, particularly the offense as they should be able to feast on an overmatched Bengals secondary with super-soph Justin Jefferson and dynamic vet Adam Thielen figuring to be the biggest beneficiaries. While I'm high on the Bengals offense in the long-term outlook, there are certainly concerns entering the season with QB Joe Burrow essentially being hidden from plain sight over the course of training camp and the preseason as he works his way back from a devastating injury that cost him much of last season. Cincinnati's offensive line is a major concern and against a tough Vikings pass rush, I'm not sure we'll see Burrow get thrown to the wolves right out of the gate. Cincinnati is brimming with young talent at the wide receiver position but will that group have enough time to get open as Burrow deals with what figures to be plenty of pressure from the Vikes front seven all afternoon long on Sunday. Take Minnesota moneyline (7*). | |||||||
09-12-21 | Cardinals v. Titans OVER 53.5 | 38-13 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Tennessee at 1 pm et on Sunday. This game has shootout written all over it. I'm actually not sure the oddsmakers can set the total high enough for a game that has 'defense optional' written all over it. The Cardinals offense figures to improve in QB Kyler Murray's sophomore season with an improved offensive line and a more dynamic receiving corps with the underrated addition of rookie Rondale Moore to take over the role of slot receiver. The Titans are bereft of talent in the secondary making this a nightmarish opening week matchup as the defense works its way back into game shape. It's not as if Tennessee has a fierce pass rush to lean on either. Murray should be afforded plenty of time to march the Cardinals up and down the field provided he can take care of the football. On the flip side, the Titans are favored for a reason. While their defense is certainly a weakness, their offense could turn out to be among the best in the entire NFL again this season. The addition of future Hall-of-Famer Julio Jones only adds to an already loaded group that can beat you in so many different ways. Believe it or not, QB Ryan Tannehill is still underrated in most circles in my opinion. He's not a 'flash in the pan' at this point and should be in 'attack mode' for much of the afternoon on Sunday, noting that like the Titans, the Cardinals secondary ranks among the worst in the league from a talent perspective. The Cards do have a capable pass rush but won't be able to pin back their ears against a well-balanced Tennessee offense on Sunday. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
09-11-21 | Utah v. BYU UNDER 49.5 | 17-26 | Win | 100 | 15 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and BYU at 10:15 pm et on Saturday. This has generally been a low-scoring series with six of the last nine meetings between these two in-state rivals totaling 45 points or less. While I'm not expecting a true defensive slugfest on Saturday night in Provo, I do think this one will stay 'under' the total. Utah put up 40 points in last week's win over FCS squad Weber State. Once the Utes offense got rolling, the Wildcats simply had no answers in that contest. While BYU is expected to take a step back defensively after a tremendous 2020 campaign, it certainly held up ok in its season-opener last week, not allowing Arizona to reach the end zone until the final two minutes of the third quarter. The Cougars secondary is thought to be a weakness but I believe that can be negated by an improved pass rush, which recorded four sacks in last week's victory. Also note that the return of strong safety Chaz Ah-You is key after he missed last season. He was extremely active in last week's contest, seemingly playing all over the field and helping to slow the Arizona offense. I'm not sure how much success the Cougars offense can have against a Utes defense that is loaded from the secondary in. Note that BYU QB Jaren Hall threw for just 198 yards in last week's victory with 67 of those yards coming in a single play. Hall has some mobility and ran for 36 yards in the opener. Keep in mind, he racked up 39 yards on a single run. The Utes are terrific at the linebacker position and should be able to keep Hall from breaking off too many big runs. I do think BYU's offense can go on some long, clock-churning drives in this one, which certainly helps our cause. I simply question how many of those drives will end with 7's on the board. Note that standout BYU WR Gunner Romney is currently listed as doubtful for this game after suffering an injury last week. His ability to stretch the field would certainly be missed if he can't go, although I'm actually making this play under the assumption that he does play as there have been whispers of that throughout the week. Take the under (9*). | |||||||
09-11-21 | Liberty v. Wings OVER 158.5 | 76-77 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Dallas at 8 pm et on Saturday. Both the Liberty and Wings are coming off subpar performances but I expect more in the way of offensive fireworks as they match up for the third time this season on Saturday night. Note that the previous two meetings totaled 169 and 195 points. New York checks in having scored under 80 points in four straight games - only the second time that has happened this season. It should be afforded a good opportunity to get back on track offensively against a Wings squad that allows over 82 points per game on better than 45% shooting at home this season. Dallas has allowed less than 70 points in two of its last three games. That has happened only once previously this season and in its next game it combined with Phoenix to score 166 points with both teams getting north of the 80-point mark. The Wings are certainly in line for a strong bounce-back performance offensively here after shooting 36.5% or worse in three straight games. Note that New York allows just shy of 84 points per game on just under 43% shooting on the road this season. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-11-21 | Marlins +1.5 v. Braves | 6-4 | Win | 111 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami +1.5 runs over Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Saturday. The Braves took the opener of this series with relative ease last night, cruising to a 6-2 victory. I'm expecting a tighter game on Saturday, however. Note that the Marlins have actually held opponents to just 2.6 runs on average, outscoring them by an average margin of 0.2 runs in 10 previous situations where they've been seeking triple-revenge this season, as is the case here. The Marlins are also a solid 15-7 when coming off three straight games in which they scored three runs or less this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 2.0 runs in that spot. Meanwhile, the Braves are 20-23 after winning four or five of their last six games this season, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 0.6 runs in that situation. They're also just 18-22 when playing at home off a win, outscored by 0.4 runs on average in that spot. While Atlanta appears to have a significant edge in the starting pitching matchup tonight, it's worth noting that Miami starter Elieser Hernandez has pitched well in limited work this season, recording a 1.03 WHIP in 27 1/3 innings. Take Miami +1.5 runs (8*). | |||||||
09-11-21 | Calgary +1.5 v. Edmonton Elks | 32-16 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on Calgary plus the points over Edmonton at 7 pm et on Saturday. Barring any late setbacks, the Stampeders will welcome back QB Bo Levi Mitchell for Saturday's rematch with the Elks. I don't believe the Stamps would rush Mitchell back if he wasn't ready, noting that backup Jake Maier has performed admirably in his absence, throwing for over 300 yards in three straight games. Here, Calgary will be looking for quick revenge after suffering what ended as a lopsided result at home against the Elks on Monday. At 1-4 and given this is a shorter than usual season due to Covid, the Stamps need to turn things around in a hurry and I'm confident they will. Edmonton QB Trevor Harris has put up some terrific numbers over the last couple of games but I haven't been overly impressed by his play. Too many short passes only reaching the line of scrimmage, not really taking advantage of a terrific wide receiving corps. We did see the Elks open things up a bit on offense in the latter stages of Monday's contest but I'm not convinced we'll see a similar gameplan right out of the gate here. Note that the Stamps are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games when playing on the road off an upset loss against a division opponent, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 3.4 points on average in that situation. Take Calgary (8*). | |||||||
09-11-21 | Iowa v. Iowa State UNDER 46.5 | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 28 h 25 m | Show |
CFB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Iowa and Iowa State at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'under' in Iowa's season-opener against Indiana last week and were extremely fortunate to do so as the Hawkeyes built a big lead and essentially 'parked the bus' in the second half. Here, I'm expecting both sides to contribute to keeping this one 'under' the total, noting that this rivalry series has generally been low-scoring with last year's matchup producing just 35 total points. Iowa set the tone early against Indiana last week, with RB Tyler Goodson breaking off a 56-yard touchdown run less than two minutes into the game. From there, Indiana had to take a lot more chances than it would have liked and ultimately threw a pair of pick-sixes in the first half. All told, the Hawkeyes allowed just one big play in the entire game - that being a 33-yard catch from standout Hoosiers WR Ty Fryfogle. With Iowa's ball-hawking (no pun intended) tendencies, I think we'll see Iowa State go a little more conservative on offense, noting that the Cyclones are coming off a very low-scoring 16-10 victory over FCS squad Northern Iowa last week. In that game, Iowa State scored a touchdown halfway through the second quarter but was then held out of the end zone the rest of the way. The Cyclones were efficient in the passing game but QB Brock Purdy only attempted 26 passes. Meanwhile, they ran the ball 34 times. On the flip side of that, Iowa State effectively had just one defensive breakdown in the entire game against NIU, that coming on a first quarter 52-yard catch and run that resulted in a touchdown. I do think Iowa State can find success against the rival Hawkeyes by grinding out long, clock-churning drives and essentially shortening this game. Of course, the same can be said for Iowa. Note that Hawkeyes QB Spencer Petras actually completed just 13-of-27 passes for only 145 yards in last week's 34-point performance. With both teams returning plenty of talent from last season and a win or a loss meaning so much, even at this early stage of the season with these two teams sitting in the top-25 rankings, I'm anticipating a tightly-contested, low-scoring affair on Saturday afternoon. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-11-21 | Rangers v. A's -180 | 8-6 | Loss | -180 | 7 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oakland over Texas at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. We won with the A's in a similar price range last night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well here as the Rangers find themselves in another difficult spot against a suddenly streaking Oakland club. Note that Texas is 0-12 when playing on the road off six or more consecutive road games this season, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 3.6 runs in that spot. The Rangers are also a miserable 11-37 when playing on the road off a loss this season, outscored by 1.8 runs on average in that situation. As for the A's, they check in 32-17 when playing at home for at least the fourth straight game this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.8 runs in that spot. Better still, they're 28-12 when playing at home off a win this season, outscoring foes by 1.4 runs on average. Today's A's starter, Cole Irvin, has struggled lately but four of his last five outings have come on the road. Here at home he owns a 1.26 WHIP in 13 starts, with the A's having won five of his last six outings here at the Coliseum including a 12-3 win over the Rangers on August 7th. Take Oakland (7*). | |||||||
09-11-21 | Saskatchewan v. Winnipeg UNDER 43.5 | 9-33 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Saskatchewan and Winnipeg at 4 pm et on Saturday. We saw a very low-scoring game between these two teams just six days ago as Winnipeg rolled to a 23-8 win on the road. I don't expect much to change in the rematch, even with the Riders missing a couple of key cogs in the secondary. Winnipeg doesn't necessarily have the offense to take full advantage of Saskatchewan's key absences (both Ed Gainey and Louchez Purifoy will miss this game). QB Zach Collaros has been more of a game manager this season, noting that Winnipeg has scored 23 points or less in all five games to date. Also note that the Bombers have a number of offensive players listed on their injury report. Nic Demski, Darvin Adams and Andrew Harris are among those listed as questionable although I would anticipate all three playing in this game. Whether they're 100% healthy is up for debate, however. Saskatchewan's offense has stalled somewhat since a huge first half was back in its season-opener against B.C. The Riders will need to take some of the pressure off of QB Cody Fajardo in this one as he was under duress all afternoon long against the Bombers vaunted pass rush last Sunday. I expect plenty of early down runs and also quick, short passes in this one in an effort to keep the Bombers defense on the field and perhaps slow that dominant pass rush. We saw a low-scoring result in the quick turnaround rematch between the Ti-Cats and Argos last night and I expect more of the same in this rematch on Saturday afternoon. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
09-11-21 | Purdue -34 v. Connecticut | 49-0 | Win | 100 | 28 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Purdue minus the points over Connecticut at 3 pm et on Saturday. We cashed a ticket fading the Connecticut Huskies in their season-opener against Fresno State and probably should have gone back to the well again last week as they fell in their home-opener against FCS squad Holy Cross. As I noted at the start of the season, UConn was ravaged by transfers out of the program when it was announced it would sit out the entire 2020 campaign - and it's not as if the talent was there to begin with following a dismal 2019 season. Here, I expect the Huskies to get rolled by a good Purdue Boilermakers squad that is flying under the radar a little bit at this early stage of the season. Purdue shook off some early rust on offense to get past Oregon State by a 30-21 score last week. In that game, Purdue scored a first quarter touchdown before being held to three field goals in the second and third quarters. The good news is, the Boilers offense got on track in the fourth quarter, putting together two touchdown drives. Purdue's pass-catchers looked outstanding as that game progressed with David Bell and Payne Durham combining to catch 15 passes for 254 yards and a pair of touchdowns, both coming from super tight end Durham. RB Zander Horvath was as advertised despite only getting 21 carries as he gained 81 yards on the ground and found the end zone once. QB Jack Plummer took care of the football and threw for over 300 yards, essentially all that was asked from him in that contest. We saw Connecticut somewhat surprisingly put together three first half touchdown drives last week. The Huskies added a third quarter touchdown score but from there, couldn't do anything positive in the game's final 18 minutes, held off the scoreboard entirely in an eventual 10-point loss. Despite putting up 28 points, QB Jack Zergiotis completed just 17-of-41 passes with just one completion going for more than 15 yards. Now the Huskies will need to contend with a much tougher opponent, noting that the Boilers held Oregon State out of the end zone for a 41-minute stretch in last week's victory and should feast in Storrs on Saturday afternoon. Purdue gave up its share of big plays through the air against the Beavers last week but UConn isn't likely to pose the same type of challenge here. Take Purdue (10*). | |||||||
09-11-21 | Tulsa v. Oklahoma State UNDER 51.5 | 23-28 | Win | 100 | 25 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Tulsa and Oklahoma State at 12 noon et on Saturday. This matchup produced a very low-scoring result last year with Oklahoma State prevailing by a 16-7 score. That was a surprising outcome. A relatively low-scoring contest here shouldn't be. Tulsa dropped a 19-17 decision against Cal-Davis in its season-opener last week. In that game, the Golden Hurricane didn't manage to find the end zone until the final five minutes of the first half and that was a clock-churning 12-play drive that included a successful fourth down conversion. From there, Tulsa didn't score another touchdown until the latter half of the third quarter. On a positive note, the Golden Hurricane allowed an early touchdown inside the game's first four minutes but then didn't give up another touchdown the rest of the way. That's not surprising as the Tulsa defense was outstanding last season and gets nine starters back from that unit. This will obviously be a tougher test against Oklahoma State but certainly not an insurmountable one. The Cowboys weren't great on offense in 2020 and have to replace a number of key contributors. Oklahoma State was involved in a low-scoring win against an FCS opponent in Missouri State last week. The Cowboys actually scored three early touchdowns in that contest - all coming inside the first five minutes of the second quarter. From there, they managed just a single field goal, indicating the potentially inconsistent nature of this offense. The defense was tremendous, however, not allowing a touchdown until the final four minutes of the fourth quarter, when they held a comfortable 23-9 lead. Oklahoma State is strong from the secondary in on the defensive side of the football. Seven starters return to the unit from a group that finished tops in the entire nation in third down stops a year ago. They'll give up enough yardage for Tulsa to orchestrate some clock-eating drives, but I don't expect a ton of big plays from the Golden Hurricane in this one. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-11-21 | Illinois v. Virginia -10.5 | 14-42 | Win | 100 | 22 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Virginia minus the points over Illinois at 11 am et on Saturday. Whatever positive momentum that Illinois had built in its season-opening upset win over Nebraska is gone after last week's 37-30 loss to UTSA - the Roadrunners first ever victory over a Big Ten program. The Illini are going to get better under head coach Bret Bielema but it's not going to happen overnight. The defense still has the fingerprints of Lovie Smith all over it and that was evident in last Saturday's loss to UTSA. In that game, Illinois allowed two touchdowns before the second quarter was even four minutes old. From there, the Roadrunners would put together five more scoring drives, including a pair of fourth quarter touchdowns when the Illini defense had a chance to rise up and take over the game. Offensively, the Illini weren't able to find the end zone until nearly six minutes into the second quarter. QB Artur Sitkowski bombed away for 42 pass attempts, competing only 22 of those for just 266 yards. For Bielema's offense to work the way it should he needs stability at the running back position. RB Mike Epstein looked like he could be that guy but after leaving last week's game with an undisclosed injury he's now expected to miss this Saturday's game as well. Virginia got the perfect tune-up for this one, rolling to a 43-0 victory over FCS squad William & Mary last week. The offense sputtered a bit in the early going but once it found it's rhythm it proved difficult to stop, scoring five touchdowns over the game's final three quarters. QB Brennan Armstrong was effective, throwing for 339 yards on 21 completions and did a nice job of taking care of the football, throwing two touchdowns and no interceptions. The emergence of former Mississippi State QB and now used predominantly at wide receiver and out of the backfield, Keytaon Thompson was a factor, running the ball four times for 43 yards while also catching five passes for 66 yards. This is a Cavaliers offense that has the potential to be dynamic, particularly against weaker defensive opponents such as the Illini. While Illinois does boast a solid pass rush, Cavs QB Armstrong has some mobility and I expect him to be able to stretch out some plays and ultimately take advantage of a weak Illini secondary. Defensively, the jury is still out as to how much better Virginia will be after a tough 2020 campaign. There's certainly nowhere to go but up and it was a positive sign that the longest play they gave up last week went for just 20 yards, despite the fact that William & Mary figured to be taking some chances down big. The Cavs didn't force a single fumble or interception in the game but I do expect turnovers to play a role in the outcome on Saturday against Illinois, presumably in Virginia's favor. Take Virginia (9*). | |||||||
09-10-21 | Rangers v. A's -173 | 5-10 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oakland over Texas at 9:40 pm et on Friday. I really like the way this one sets up for the A's, who are looking to make up for lost time after a really tough stretch. They enter this series off consecutive wins over the A's and I look for them to keep it going against the suddenly streaking Rangers on Friday. Texas has inexplicably won four games in a row after dropping its previous three contests. This is a tough spot for the Rangers, however, noting that they're a ridiculous 0-11 when playing on the road after six or more consecutive road games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 3.5 runs in that spot. They're also just 11-43 when playing on the road against A.L. West opponents over the last two seasons, outscored by 1.8 runs on average in those contests. Meanwhile, the A's have been a terrific 'positive momentum' play having gone 76-37 when playing at home off a win over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.3 runs. The lack of a true advantage in terms of the starting pitching matchup helps keep Oakland in a playable range here. Take Oakland (8*). | |||||||
09-10-21 | UTEP v. Boise State OVER 56 | 13-54 | Win | 100 | 31 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between UTEP and Boise State at 9:30 pm et on Friday. I'm higher on UTEP than most but this is admittedly a tough matchup as the Miners head to Boise to take on a Broncos squad that will be in a foul mood after a blown opportunity in their opener at UCF. While the Miners have already lost RB Deion Hankins to injury, they may have found a star in the making in Ronald Awatt. Since taking over the starting role from Hankins he has ripped off 200 yards and two touchdowns on just 30 carries. With the fantastic WR tandem of Jacob Cowing and Justin Garrett, the Miners also have the potential to blow the top off Boise's secondary, which lost its two starting cornerbacks from last season. Keep in mind, we're talking about a Boise secondary that came up with only three interceptions all of last year. The problem for UTEP here will be trying to slow down an explosive Boise State offense that just hung 31 points on UCF. Like Boise, UTEP's defensive weakness is in the secondary where it doesn't boast much depth and managed to come up with only two picks all of last year. Both of those came from Duron Lowe, who is no longer with the team. This should be a 'name your score' type of affair for the Broncos and I look for them to go up-tempo in an effort to negate UTEP's solid pass rush. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-10-21 | Kansas v. Coastal Carolina -26 | Top | 22-49 | Win | 100 | 30 h 31 m | Show |
CFB Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Coastal Carolina minus the points over Kansas at 7:30 pm et on Friday. I absolutely love the way this one sets up for Coastal Carolina as despite its Top 25 ranking (which is well-deserved by the way) will get a rare opportunity to perform in front of a national audience, against a Power Five conference opponent, no less. I expect the Chanticleers to take full advantage. Kansas football has been a disaster for years now. To understand the state of the program, look no further than last week's game against FCS squad South Dakota. The Jayhawks won that game by a 17-14 score. At the end of the game the fans stormed the field. Yikes. Note that Kansas didn't manage to even score in that game until the final 30 seconds of the first half. That was only thanks to South Dakota handing it excellent field position due to a poor punt late in the first half. From there, the Jayhawks reach the end zone again until the final 1:10 of the fourth quarter. Now Kansas heads on the road to face a Coastal Carolina squad that laid waste to FCS foe Citadel in their season-opener last week. A stark contrast to Kansas, the Chanticleers went full throttle offensively from start to finish in that game. They were ahead 21-0 midway through the second quarter and entered halftime with a 31-0 cushion. They didn't allow a single score until the game was already well in hand, up 38-0 with just over six minutes remaining in the third quarter. I liked the way Coastal Carolina continued to pour it on, even scoring a touchdown in the game's final three minutes. This is a Chanticleers squad that is loaded with returning talent on both sides of the football and eager to prove that last season was no fluke, not Covid-assisted. Expect a rout on Friday night. Take Coastal Carolina (10*). | |||||||
09-09-21 | Sun v. Sparks UNDER 145.5 | 75-57 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Connecticut and Los Angeles at 10:30 pm et on Thursday. This is a fairly low total by WNBA standards but it's warranted in my opinion. The Sun have opened their current road trip by scoring 85 and 83 points in wins over the Mystics and Wings. Note that prior to that they had scored 80+ points just twice in six games since the Olympic break. You would have to go back to May 16th to 21st to find the last time they put up 80+ points in three consecutive games. Keep in mind, tonight's opponent, the Los Angeles Sparks, have actually been pretty locked in defensively of late, holding eight of nine opponents to 44.4% or less shooting since the Olympic break. The problem is, the Sparks offense just isn't working. They've been held to 72 points or less in five straight games and now have to contend with an elite Sun defense that just held the Dallas Wings to a ridiculous 26.6% shooting. Connecticut checks in allowing just 72 points per game on 40% shooting on the road this season. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
09-09-21 | Cowboys v. Bucs OVER 51.5 | 29-31 | Win | 102 | 13 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Tampa Bay at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. While the Bucs continue to be bet up, the total has held fairly steady, even being bet down at some books. I fully expect Tampa Bay to find plenty of offensive success going up against a down-trodden Cowboys defense that might be a little stronger up front with the addition of first round draft pick Micah Parsons, but still looks vulnerable at the back-end. Dallas brings in former Falcons head coach Dan Quinn to run the defense - a curious move considering just how bad Quinn's defenses were during his time in Atlanta. Chris Godwin and Mike Evans should be salivating at the thought of going up against Dallas' overmatched secondary, especially with QB Tom Brady back healthy after playing through an MCL tear in the postseason. On the flip side of the equation, I'm willing to bet on the Cowboys talent on offense, and also the play-calling of offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, who is in his third season at the helm. Dallas isn't likely to enjoy much success running the football against the Bucs space-eating defensive front but I don't think Moore will bang his head against the wall long trying to force-feed Ezekiel Elliott. There should be opportunities for Cowboys RB Tony Pollard to perhaps get involved in the short passing game in this one against a Tampa Bay defense that was more than willing to give up passes to running backs last season. I also believe that WRs Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb are 'bet-on talents' against a capable Bucs secondary. While QB Dak Prescott will be seeing his first game action since Week 5 of last season (he sat out the entire preseason) all indications are that he was 'all systems go' in the latter stages of camp, with no signs of any loss of velocity after dealing with a shoulder/lat injury earlier in the summer. Missing Zack Martin on the offensive line hurts but Dak's mobility helps. What better way to get back to football than with plenty of offensive fireworks on Thursday night? Take the over (8*). | |||||||
09-09-21 | Nationals v. Braves OVER 9 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Thursday. We saw a low-scoring game between these two teams last night as we cashed with the underdog Nationals +1.5 runs in their outright victory. Here, I'm expecting a much higher-scoring affair. Note that the 'over' is 14-4 with the Braves seeking revenge for a loss as a home favorite this season with those games averaging 12.6 total runs. The Nats check in on a 36-22 'over' run with those games totaling an average of 11.1 runs. Washington has actually been fairly consistent offensively in recent games, scoring at least four runs in six consecutive games heading into this one. With a subpar starting pitching matchup featuring Erick Fedde and Huascar Ynoa, and two less than reliable bullpens, expect a high-scoring contest on Thursday night. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-09-21 | Twins v. Indians -134 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland over Minnesota at 6:10 pm et on Thursday. The Indians inexplicably lost a third straight game against the lowly Twins last night but I look for them to finally answer back on Thursday. Cal Quantrill will take the ball for Cleveland on Thursday and he's arguably been their most consistent starter in recent weeks (and months). Here, the Indians check in having gone 14-2 after scoring one run or less this season, outscoring opponents by 2.7 runs on average in that situation. Despite last night's loss, they're still an impressive 40-15 when priced as a favorite of between -125 an -175 over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.7 runs in that spot. Minnesota is a miserable 1-9 when playing on the road after winning four of their last five contests over the last two seasons, outscored by 1.6 runs on average in that situation. Interestingly, the Twins are also 4-14 when playing on the road after being held to three runs or less in two consecutive games over the last two seasons. Take Cleveland (10*). | |||||||
09-08-21 | White Sox v. A's -154 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oakland over Chicago at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday. The A's are reeling right now, playing their worst baseball of the season at the absolute worst time. I do look for them to bounce back on Wednesday, however, as they hand the ball to Frankie Montas, who has been their most reliable starter over the last month-plus. Oakland checks in 5-2 in Montas' last seven outings. Over that stretch he's allowed just 10 earned runs in 44 2/3 innings of work. Even with last night's win, the White Sox are still just 11-27 as a road underdog over the last two seasons. Dallas Keuchel remains in the Chicago rotation out of necessity only as he's been awful for the better part of the last month. He's topped out at three strikeouts over his last five starts, recording just a single 'K' in three of those outings. Over his last three starts he checks in with a ridiculous 16.00 ERA and 3.11 WHIP. The fact that the White Sox have lost six of his last eight trips to the hill is telling. Take Oakland (8*). | |||||||
09-08-21 | Nationals +1.5 v. Braves | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington +1.5 runs over Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Wednesday. The Nats may simply be playing out the string at this point but it's not as if they've quit on the season. That was evident in last night's wild 8-5 loss as they rallied back from a late 5-1 deficit only to eventually fall by a three-run margin. Here, we're being offered a generous price to back the Nats with an insurance run in our pockets. Note that the Braves are just 20-27 after scoring eight runs or more in a game over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 1.2 runs in that spot. They're also just 17-21 at home off a win this season, outscored by 0.5 runs on average in that situation. For whatever reason, the Nats have been outstanding on the road in Wednesday games this season, averaging a whopping 7.9 runs per game and outscoring opponents by 3.4 runs on average while reeling off seven wins in eight games. Also note that the Nats have outscored opponents by 0.5 runs on average when playing on the road with double revenge, as is the case here. There's no real edge in terms of starting pitching in this one while the Braves bullpen has converted just 13 saves while blowing 13 as well here at home. Take Washington +1.5 runs (8*). | |||||||
09-08-21 | Mercury v. Dream UNDER 157.5 | 76-75 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Atlanta at 7 pm et on Wednesday. The Mercury have scored 80 points or more in six straight games entering Wednesday's clash with the Dream in Atlanta. Keep in mind, their longest previous streak was four games scoring 80 or more this season. Here, they'll face a Dream squad that have seemed to figure out the only way they're going to win any games down the stretch is by locking down on defense. That's because their offense is essentially broke, due to injuries and suspensions, having shot 43.1% or worse from the field in all eight games since returning from the Olympic break. They're coming off a two-game stop in Dallas that saw them hold the Wings to a combined 53-for-152 (34.9%) shooting. While this is obviously a tougher test, it is worth noting that the Mercury are expected to be without Diana Taurasi and as I mentioned are in line for some regression as they end a stretch that saw them play six out of seven games away from home. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
09-08-21 | Twins v. Indians -125 | 3-0 | Loss | -125 | 20 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland over Minnesota at 6:10 pm et on Wednesday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Indians on Wednesday night as they try to avoid a third consecutive defeat at the hands of the lowly Twins. Note that Minnesota hasn't recorded three straight road wins against the same team since sweeping the Rangers from June 18th-20th. Tonight the Twins will be up against a red hot Triston McKenzie, who has dropped his ERA from 6.11 on July 31st to 4.62 entering this outing. McKenzie has given up just seven earned runs in 34 innings of work over his last five starts. Even with last night's loss, the Indians are still 37-19 when priced as a favorite of -110 or higher this season. That includes a stellar 26-10 mark at home. Take Cleveland (10*). | |||||||
09-08-21 | Rangers v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Texas and Arizona at 3:40 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a low-scoring game between these two teams last night. In fact, the Rangers have now seen two straight and four of their last five contests stay 'under' the total. I look for a different story to unfold here. Note that the 'over' is a perfect 8-0 with the D'Backs coming off a three-game stretch in which they hit .200 or worse as a team this season, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 13.3 runs. The 'over' is also 26-11 when Arizona revenges a loss against an opponent as a home favorite over the last three seasons with that spot producing an average total of 11.5 runs. If there's one spot where we can generally count on high-scoring games involving the Rangers, it's on the road in day games over the last two seasons, with the 'over' cashing at a 21-10 clip in that spot, good for an average of 10.5 total runs. With a subpar starting pitching matchup between Arihara and Weaver, not to mention two unreliable bullpens, look for plenty of offensive fireworks in this one. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-07-21 | Angels +1.5 v. Padres | 4-0 | Win | 150 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles +1.5 runs over San Diego at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. The price is simply too good to pass up as we're being given an insurance run with the Angels at a plus-money return on Tuesday. Note that while Blake Snell has been terrific for the Padres lately, he checks in sporting a 7-13 team record after allowing two earned runs or less in consecutive starts over the last three seasons with his teams outscored by 0.9 runs on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Angels enter this game having gone a perfect 7-0 after scoring four runs or less in five straight games this season, averaging a whopping 7.3 runs per game and outscoring opponents by an average margin of 4.9 runs in that spot. Despite their overall losing record, the Halos are also 25-18 after scoring two runs or less in a game this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 0.3 runs on average in that situation. Take Los Angeles +1.5 runs (6*). | |||||||
09-07-21 | Mystics v. Storm -9 | 71-105 | Win | 100 | 10 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle minus the points over Washington at 10 pm et on Tuesday. This line has fallen back into playable range with the Storm now laying single-digits against the reeling Mystics. Washington has shot better than 45.5% from the field just once since mid-June. Meanwhile, the Mystics defense has tanked, allowing four straight opponents to shoot 47.8% or better from the field. Seattle has also allowed consecutive opponents to shoot a lofty 48.2% or better from the field. I believe the Storm turn it around here, however, as they come well rested having not played since September 2nd, with that contest coming here at home as well. The Storm haven't shot better than 50% from the field in a game since back on June 11th. I expect them to approach that here, however, noting that Washington has allowed four of its last eight opponents to shoot better than 50%. Take Seattle (9*). | |||||||
09-07-21 | Rangers v. Diamondbacks -160 | 3-1 | Loss | -160 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona over Texas at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Rangers are coming off consecutive wins over the Angels in Anaheim while the D'Backs just got swept in a three-game set at home against the Mariners. With that being said, I look for Arizona to bounce back and send Texas back to its losing ways on the road on Tuesday night. Note that the Rangers are a miserable 3-19 when playing on the road off three consecutive games against division opponents this season, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 2.3 runs. They generally get worse as a road trip goes on, even if that hasn't been the case so far on this trip, as they check in 5-27 after playing four or more consecutive road games, outscored by 2.0 runs on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the D'Backs enjoyed a day off on Monday and that's key as they've gone 29-16 when coming off an off day over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.6 runs on average. With Zac Gallen having figured out his issues for the Snakes over his last three starts (1.50 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 18 IP), look for Arizona to get back in the win column. Take Arizona (8*). | |||||||
09-07-21 | Phillies v. Brewers +1.5 | 0-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee +1.5 runs over Philadelphia at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Brewers were in line for a letdown yesterday after a wild come-from-behind walk-off win on Sunday and that's precisely what happened as they had their doors blown off by the Phillies. Now they're set up well to bounce back and we're being afforded the opportunity to back them with a one-run cushion at a reasonable price. Note that Philadelphia is just 12-22 after allowing two runs or less in a game this season, outscored by an average margin of 1.6 runs in that spot. The Phillies are 29-44 after winning a game by four runs or more over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 1.2 runs. Also note that Philadelphia has allowed a whopping 7.3 runs on average and has been outscored by an average margin of 1.9 runs after allowing four runs or less in three consecutive games over the last three seasons, as is the case here. You would have to go back six starts to find the last time Phillies starter Aaron Nola was on the mound for a victory by more than a single run. He hasn't guided Philadelphia to a win by multiple runs here in Milwaukee since his first career outing here back in 2016. Take Milwaukee +1.5 runs (7*). | |||||||
09-07-21 | Nationals v. Braves -225 | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta over Washington at 7:20 pm et on Tuesday. We'll lay the chalk and back the Braves in Tuesday's series-opener against the Nationals. Washington is coming off a rare victory yesterday but still checks in just 17-42 over its last 59 games, outscored by an average margin of 1.4 runs over that stretch. Also note that the Nats are a miserable 3-14 when seeking revenge for consecutive home losses against an opponent this season, as is the case here, outscored by 1.8 runs on average in that spot. The Braves are a solid 22-10, outscoring their opponents by an average margin of 2.7 runs after losing four or five of their last six games this season, as is the case tonight. They're 39-13 when tonight's starter Max Fried starts as a favorite priced at -110 or higher over the last 2+ seasons, outscoring opponents by 2.6 runs on average. Take Atlanta (6*). | |||||||
09-07-21 | Mets v. Marlins OVER 7.5 | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
N.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Miami at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. High-scoring games involving the Marlins have been few and far between in recent weeks but that's the type of contest I'm expecting as they open a series against the Marlins on Tuesday night. Note that the 'over' has gone 12-1 when Miami plays at home after consecutive games where it recorded two hits or less over the last three seasons, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 12.6 runs. The 'over' is also 30-14 when the Marlins play at home after consecutive games where they've scored three runs or less over the same stretch, leading to an average total of 10.2 runs scored. Finally, Miami is allowing 5.0 runs per game after allowing four runs or less in five straight games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, but also averaging 5.0 runs per game itself when coming off a one-run loss against a division opponent this year. With both lineups having just got a look at tonight's opposing starter in the last week, look for more than enough offense to topple this relatively low total on Tuesday. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-07-21 | Twins v. Indians -133 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -133 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
MLB A.L. Central Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland over Minnesota at 6:10 pm et on Tuesday. I'll keep it simple with my analysis for this play. I really like the way this one sets up for the Indians. Note that Cleveland checks in 26-9 when playing at home as a favorite priced at -110 or higher this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.8 runs. Better still, the Indians are 26-8 when coming off a game where they scored two runs or less this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 2.1 runs on average in that spot. They'll have Aaron CiVale back on the mound for the first time since June, noting that they've gone 12-3 in his 15 previous outings this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 2.7 runs. Meanwhile, the Twins are 9-16 when coming off two more consecutive wins this season while also going 29-40 after losing four or five of their last six games, as is the case here. Take Cleveland (10*). | |||||||
09-07-21 | Japan -1.75 v. China PR | 1-0 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on Japan -1.5 goals over China PR at 11 am et on Tuesday. Japan is a top-25 ranked international squad according to FIFA rankings. It certainly didn't look the part in an absolutely dreadful performance against Oman last time out. Japan suffered a 1-0 defeat in that match, despite being heavily favored heading in. Here, Japan is once again a significant favorite, but this time around, I'm anticipating a much different result. China was completely outclassed by Australia in its last match, suffering a 3-0 setback. It managed just 38% of the possession and didn't register a single shot on goal in the loss. There's little reason to expect much improvement here. Note that the damage could have been much worse last time out had Australia not jumped ahead 2-0 so early and essentially 'parked the bus' from there. Japan isn't likely to ease off the gas with goal differential a consideration off the shutout loss to Oman. A much tougher test awaits against Australia and the Japanese will certainly want to ramp up prior to that match - which comes after another difficult test away from home against Saudi Arabia. If your book offers alternate lines, consider backing Japan at -1.5 rather than the standard -1.75 being offered, ensuring you cash should it win by exactly two goals. Take Japan -1.5 goals (10*). | |||||||
09-06-21 | Rangers v. Angels OVER 9 | 4-0 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Texas and Los Angeles at 9:05 pm et on Monday. We won with the Rangers on the run-line in yesterday's 7-3 Texas victory. Here, I'll switch gears and back the 'over' as I look for the bats to come alive in the series finale. Note that the 'over' is 23-10 with the Angels coming off four consecutive games in which they scored four runs or less over the last three seasons with those contests totaling an average of 10.4 runs. The 'over' is a perfect 10-0 when the Angels play at home after three or more straight games against division opponents this season with that spot producing an average total of 12.6 runs. Neither Rangers rookie starter A.J. Alexy or Jaime Barria of the Angels inspire a great deal of confidence here, nor do the two ragged bullpens. Take the over (9*). | |||||||
09-06-21 | Louisville v. Ole Miss OVER 75 | Top | 24-43 | Loss | -112 | 22 h 23 m | Show |
CFB Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Louisville and Ole Miss at 8 pm et on Monday. I don't know if everyone realizes just how high the ceiling is for this Ole Miss offense this season. Last year, the Rebels put up 48+ points on four different occasions (in only 10 games). Most of the key pieces from that offense are back in place and while head coach Lane Kiffin will miss Monday's game after testing positive for Covid-19, I don't expect the offense to miss a beat. Meanwhile, the Louisville offense should be along for the ride in this one, likely playing in comeback mode for much of the night. The Cardinals are well-suited to put points on the board as well with QB Malik Cunningham firmly entrenched as the starter - unlike last season. Louisville turned in a solid 2020 campaign offensively but there's still a lot of room for improvement. Cunningham needs to take better care of the football but I don't expect him to be any less aggressive. The Cardinals lose more talent on offense than the Rebels but there are still plenty of playmakers, more than enough to give the Rebels defense some problems in this one. On the fast track in Atlanta, there's a reason why we're dealing with such a high posted total. I'm not sure the oddsmakers can set the total high enough. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-06-21 | Mariners v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-11 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
MLB Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Houston at 7:10 pm et on Monday. I like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair between the Mariners and Astros on Monday night. Note that the 'over' has gone 17-5 with the Mariners coming off four or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons, as is the case here, with those games averaging 11.8 total runs. Meanwhile, the 'over' has gone 12-3 with the Astros playing at home after losing three of their last four games with that situation producing an average total of 11.4 runs. The Astros will inexplicably be getting their sixth look at Mariners starter Yusei Kikuchi this season while the Mariners will be seeing Lance McCullers Jr. for the four time this year and seventh time since the start of 2020. Four of Kikuchi's six starts against Houston since last season have totaled at least 11 runs. Two of McCullers Jr.'s three outings against Seattle this year have reached at least 14 total runs. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-06-21 | Edmonton Elks v. Calgary OVER 42.5 | Top | 32-20 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
CFL West Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Edmonton and Calgary at 4:30 pm et on Monday. The fact that the Stampeders were involved in a low-scoring 18-16 setback against the Blue Bombers last week works out well for our purposes here as we're once again being afforded a low total to work with. The Elks of course had last week's game postponed as they had a number of players in Covid protocols. When we last saw Edmonton, it did show signs of life offensively with QB Trevor Harris completing 26-of-31 passes in a victory in B.C. The Elks have too much talent on offense to be held down for long and I expect them to come out with an aggressive offensive gameplan here in the Labor Day Classic in Calgary. The Stamps were written off by most with the injury to star QB Bo Levi Mitchell but Jake Maier has stepped in and performed admirably. Last week against arguably the league's best defense, on the road no less, Maier completed 30-of-39 passes for 307 yards. He hasn't shied away from taking chances down the field - it certainly helps that he has an excellent receiving corps to work with. The Elks defense hasn't really been tested all that much this season with their first three games coming against Ottawa, Montreal and B.C. - three teams that have been very inconsistent on offense so far this season. We don't need a shootout to cash this ticket but that type of contest is certainly well within the realm of possibility. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-06-21 | Mali v. Uganda OVER 2 | 0-0 | Loss | -101 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first half 'over' 0.75 goals between Uganda and Mali at 9 am et on Monday. | |||||||
09-05-21 | Winnipeg v. Saskatchewan -190 | 23-8 | Loss | -190 | 19 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Saskatchewan moneyline over Winnipeg at 6 pm et on Sunday. I'm not interested in laying the points here. Instead, I'll keep it simple and back the Riders straight-up to earn their fourth straight victory to open the season. The Blue Bombers bounced back from an ugly loss in Toronto by outlasting Calgary in an ugly victory, 18-16 last weekend. It's been a war of attrition for Winnipeg in the early going this season as it has dealt with a number of key injuries. While the bulk of the Blue Bombers injured players have battled through and managed to suit up, all of that missed or limited practice time has to be adding up at this point. RB Andrew Harris, WRs Nic Demski and Darvin Adams and DLs Willie Jefferson and Jackson Jeffcoat all were either limited or missed practice at some point this week. While I would guess that all of them will suit up for Sunday's contest, whether they're completely healthy is up for debate. The Riders have no such injury issues to worry about. They've quietly reeled off three straight wins to open the season and come off their bye week. I like Saskatchewan's edge at the quarterback position with dual-threat Cody Fajardo in midseason form already. Bombers QB Zach Collaros has certainly lost a step over the years and is no longer much of a threat to run the football. We'll see a rematch of this contest next week in Winnipeg. Look for the Riders to hold serve at home on Sunday. Take Saskatchewan moneyline (8*). | |||||||
09-05-21 | Rangers +1.5 v. Angels | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 19 m | Show |
MLB Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on Texas +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I like the way this one sets up for the Rangers after they dropped the first two games in this series. Note that as bad as things have gone for the Rangers, particularly on the road, they haven't lost three consecutive games against an opponent away from home since back on August 6th-8th against Oakland. The A's are obviously in a class above today's opponent, the Angels. You would have to go back to July 2nd-4th to find the last time the Angels recorded three straight home wins against an opponent - those coming against the Orioles. Here, we find Los Angeles having gone 3-10, outscored by 1.9 runs on average, when coming off consecutive games in which it allowed two runs or less over the last two seasons, as is the case here. The Angels have received solid outings from their starting pitchers so far in this series but this is probably a bullpen game for them with Janson Junk making his big league debut. The Angels 'pen owns a collective 5.31 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in day games this season and checks in overworked having logged a whopping 32 innings over their last seven games. Take Texas +1.5 runs (10*). | |||||||
09-05-21 | Grambling State v. Tennessee State UNDER 52.5 | 16-10 | Win | 115 | 6 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Grambling and Tennessee State at 4 pm et on Sunday. I'm not expecting a lot of offensive fireworks in this contest on Sunday. Tennessee State is beginning a new era with a completely new coaching staff led by Tennessee Titans legend Eddie George and offensive coordinator Hue Jackson. There are plenty of kinks to be worked out in what is expected to be a run-heavy offensive attack, however. In seven Spring games, the Tigers topped out at 26 points, scoring 20 points or less in five of those seven contests. Now they face a Grambling defense that was terrific in 2019 but failed to deliver in the Spring, allowing 30+ points in three of four games. Expect a better defensive performance from Grambling now that it has had a full Fall camp under its belt. Similar to Tennessee State, the Grambling offense couldn't get much going in the Spring, scoring a grand total of 66 points in four games. Also like TSU, Grambling will look to control the clock and generally look to run the ball first on offense. There's just not a ton of explosiveness in the Tigers passing game. This contest will certainly have more eyes on it than usual for an early season FCS clash as it's nationally-televised on NFL Network. Don't count on a whole lot of scoring. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
09-05-21 | Aces v. Sky UNDER 169.5 | Top | 84-92 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 26 m | Show |
WNBA Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Las Vegas and Chicago at 3 pm et on Sunday. The first game in this home-and-home set reached 173 points as Candace Parker went off for 30 points for the Sky while the Aces had A'ja Wilson, Riquna Williams and Kelsey Plum all contribute 21 points, weathering the storm without Liz Cambage and Dearica Hamby, who are both expected to miss Sunday's game as well. That frontcourt duo's absence opened things up for the Chicago offense, with Stefanie Dolson also scoring in double-figures. I do expect to see the Aces make the necessary adjustments here, noting that Parker and Dolson have both failed to record double-digit scoring figures in consecutive games since the return from the Olympic break. Las Vegas has of course been a lower-scoring team on the road this season and here will face a determined Chicago squad coming off back-to-back losses that knows it needs to tighten things up, and perhaps slow things down a bit, as they return home off a long road trip. Note that the Aces are averaging just north of 75 points per game away from home since the break and will be hard-pressed to improve on that scoring average with Cambage and Hamby sidelined. Meanwhile, as I mentioned Chicago is back home on just two days' rest following a five-game in 10-night road trip that took it all over the map. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-05-21 | Cardinals v. Brewers OVER 7.5 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 4 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and Milwaukee at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. We saw a low-scoring game between these two teams last night, perhaps not unexpected after Friday's wild 19-run affair (St. Louis won 15-4). Here, I expect another relatively high-scoring contest as the Cards send veteran Jon Lester to the hill against Corbin Burnes. Lester has allowed exactly one earned run in consecutive outings. That actually sets the 'over' up well in this one, noting that the 'over' has gone 27-11 when Lester starts on the road after allowing one earned run or less in consecutive starts, with that situation producing an average total of 10.2 runs. The 'over' is also 14-5 with the Cards revenging a loss where they scored a single run or less this season, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of 9.7 runs. Meanwhile, the 'over' is a long-term 183-139 with the Brewers at home off a win by four runs or more, producing an average total of 9.5 runs. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-05-21 | Kenya v. Rwanda UNDER 2 | 1-1 | Push | 0 | 1 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' 2.0 goals between Rwanda and Kenya at 9 am et on Sunday. While Rwanda will be at home for this match, where it has gone undefeated in its last three matches, it will by no means be an easy task as it looks to bounce back from a 1-0 loss to Mali last time out. Kenya is the considerably higher ranked squad but after earning a point in a 0-0 draw against Uganda, it will simply be looking to carve out a similar result here. In fact, the 0-0 draw would serve both sides just fine on Sunday. That's a good thing as neither squad boasts much offensive firepower while at the same time being fairly difficult to break down defensively. Kenya has gone undefeated in its last five matches and should be the very definition of a 'tough out' away from home in this one. Note that Rwanda hasn't managed to tally a single marker in its last four matches against the Kenyans. This is a low total, even by international soccer standards. I'm not sure the oddsmakers can set it low enough. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-04-21 | New Mexico State v. San Diego State -31 | Top | 10-28 | Loss | -110 | 84 h 52 m | Show |
CFB Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on San Diego State minus the points over New Mexico State at 10:30 pm et on Saturday. We successfully faded New Mexico State in its first real game action since the 2019 season last week and I won't hesitate to go back to the well as it takes another step up in class in its first road test of the season against San Diego State. The Aggies did little right in last week's 30-3 drubbing at the hands of UTEP. There's little reason to expect another week of practice will change anything. The questions start at quarterback where neither Jonah Johnson or Weston Eget appear to be the answer under center. The duo combined to complete a woeful 9-of-33 passes for 89 yards in last week's lopsided loss. The ground game didn't work either as no NMSU back ran for more than 4.1 yards per carry. Backup QB Weston Eget had the team's longest rush of the game and that went for just 19 yards in garbage time. The final score actually could have been much uglier were it not for UTEP committing a whopping 12 penalties for 140 yards. Penalties were really the only way that NMSU was able to move the football down the field. The Aggies did manage two interceptions as well but that's not something we can bank on again this week as they face an Aztecs squad that is likely to pound away with its elite ground attack for much of the night. The Aztecs missed playing in a Bowl game for the first time in a decade last season with an injury to RB Greg Bell essentially derailing their campaign. Bell is back this year, along with five other players that have found their way onto the Reese's Senior Bowl Watch List. While San Diego State isn't exactly set at quarterback with Jordon Brookshire - last year's fourth-stringer at the position - winning the job. All indications are that Brookshire won the job convincingly and the Senior QB will be afforded a favorable matchup to open the season here, noting that the Aggies didn't record a single sack in last week's loss to UTEP. Brookshire has plenty of talent around him with an elite backfield not to mention all seven leading wide receivers from a year ago back in the mix and TE Daniel Bellinger, who could very well have an NFL career ahead of him. This is obviously a steep number but I'm not sure the oddsmakers or the betting majority realize just how bad this Aggies squad is - not yet, at least. Last week's opponent, UTEP, entered the season hoping that it could sneak into a Bowl game and a win over NMSU was imperative. San Diego State on the other hand, has loftier goals, believing it can contend for a Mountain West Conference title after last year's disappointment. Look for the Aztecs to win in convincing fashion in Week 1. Take San Diego State (10*). | |||||||
09-04-21 | Syracuse v. Ohio +1 | 29-9 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Ohio plus the points over Syracuse at 7 pm et on Saturday. Most are calling this a 'must-win' game for Dino Babers and the Syracuse Orange. But as we all know, motivation is rarely enough. I simply feel this is a favorable matchup for an Ohio squad that only got to play three games last season. The Bobcats return plenty of talent on both sides of the football. I really like the way they're set up at the skill positions on offense. Kurtis Rourke is expected to start at quarterback but former UNLV transfer Armani Rogers will play a role as well. Keep in mind, Rogers was able to learn the Bobcats offense last year, getting into their three games and enjoying some success both on the ground and through the air. The running back situation is even better with De'Montre Tuggle and O'Shaan Allison poised to take another step forward. Tim Albin is the new head coach but he's by no means new to the program as he served as the offensive coordinator. He won't change much from what legendary now-retired head coach Frank Solich was doing and that's a positive thing. Syracuse has two capable quarterbacks but Tommy DeVito has yet to show the consistency needed to succeed at this level (offensive line issues have certainly played a role) and Garrett Shrader transfers in from Mississippi State and is still learning the offense. The Orange defense was awful a year ago. Plenty of key pieces are back but the secondary still looks like it could be a weak spot and Ohio has the receivers to take advantage. Syracuse obviously won't go away quietly in this game but I believe the betting marketplace in general is sleeping on this Ohio squad, which has a lot of winnable games on its 2021 schedule. This happens to be one of them. Take Ohio (9*). | |||||||
09-04-21 | Phillies -120 v. Marlins | 2-3 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over Miami at 6:10 pm et on Saturday. The Phillies got blasted by the Marlins last night but I look for them to bounce back with their most consistent starter (recently anyway) in Ranger Suarez taking the ball against Trevor Rogers (who makes his first start since July) on Saturday. Note that Philadelphia is 13-4 after allowing nine runs or more in a game this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 2.4 runs in that spot. They're 20-8 after suffering a loss by four runs or more this season, outscoring opponents by 1.9 runs on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Marlins are 0-8 after giving up four runs or less in five consecutive games over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 2.4 runs on those eight previous occasions. Take Philadelphia (9*). | |||||||
09-04-21 | San Jose State +14 v. USC | 7-30 | Loss | -109 | 78 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Jose State plus the points over USC at 5 pm et on Saturday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in the Spartans Week 0 rout of FCS squad Southern Utah. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back San Jose State as it hits the road for the first time this season, making the trip to Los Angeles to face the mighty USC Trojans. This Spartans team is the real deal. They pulled off a stunner in the Mountain West Conference Championship last year, defeating Boise State with relative ease. They have unfinished business to take care off this season, however, as they couldn't quite wrap up a perfect season, falling to Ball State in the Arizona Bowl. San Jose State is loaded with returning talent on both sides of the football QB Nick Starkel is back to lead the offense with speedy RB Tyler Nevens in the backfield. Both went off in last week's rout, with Starkel throwing for just shy of 400 yards and four touchdowns (to go along with one interception) without barely breaking a sweat and Nevens gaining 91 yards and a score on the ground on just 12 carries. The wide receiving corps had some question marks heading into last week's opener, more specifically who would step up and pick up the slack with two of last year's top targets gone. All that group did against Southern Utah was explode with four different receivers picking up individual game-long catches of 40+ yards. Needless to say, the Spartans will be facing a much tougher challenge this week as they face power program USC. It is worth noting, however, that the Trojans are coming off a bad year (by their standards) defensively and have to replace a number of key parts. I'm just not convinced we're going to see USC suddenly flip the switch and become a dominant defense again here in Week 1 of the 2021 season. San Jose State's defense was incredible a year ago and gets 10 starters back from that team. We saw flashes of brilliance again in Week 0 as the Spartans 'D' manhandled an overmatched Jaguars offense. Again, this is a completely different situation heading out on the road to face an explosive Trojans offense. With that being said, I believe San Jose State has it all on the defensive side of the football and can at the very least minimize the effectiveness of this loaded Trojans offense, that like the defense, does have some needs entering the new season. To me, the Spartans have the look of a team that's poised for big things this year but it can't go out and get drilled by USC if it wants to reach its loftiest goals. You could see in the second half of last week's contest that San Jose State had already moved on to this game mentally and I believe that drubbing of Southern Utah serves as the perfect tune-up heading into this showdown. While an outright upset certainly isn't outside the realm of possibility, we'll grab the generous helping of points with the Spartans and expect a competitive affair throughout. Take San Jose State (10*). | |||||||
09-04-21 | Twins v. Rays OVER 8.5 | 4-11 | Win | 100 | 6 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Tampa Bay at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. | |||||||
09-04-21 | Indiana v. Iowa UNDER 45.5 | Top | 6-34 | Win | 100 | 80 h 43 m | Show |
Big Ten Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Iowa at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. To put it simply, I expect the defenses to be ahead of the offenses in this Week 1 Big Ten showdown at Kinnick Stadium. With that being said, I'm not sure we'll see a whole lot of 'splash plays' resulting in turnovers or short fields from the defenses that would contribute to a higher-scoring game than expected. Indiana scored more than 30 points in four of its first five games last season before the offense sputtered down the stretch, putting up just north of 20 points per game over its final three contests culminating with a 26-20 loss against Ole Miss in the Outback Bowl. The upstart Hoosiers caught some opponents - namely Penn State and Michigan - flat-footed in the early stages of last year's unique season but I don't expect them to do the same against a well-coached Iowa squad here. Michael Penix Jr. is back under center for the Hoosiers after suffering another knee injury that required season-ending surgery last year. All indications are that he's good to go for the opener but I'm not sure the Hoosiers offensive gameplan will involve throwing him to the wolves in this difficult opening week road tilt. Indiana's ground attack hasn't impressed in recent years but I do think it will make a concerted effort to control the clock and pound away a little bit in this one. Indiana's defense struggled in pass coverage a year ago but gets back plenty of experience in the secondary and should hold up just fine against a Hawkeyes offense that isn't built to bomb away. The Hoosiers defense proved more than capable of stopping the run and getting into the backfield to harass opposing quarterbacks a year ago and most of the key pieces from that unit are back. Iowa's offense took a bit of a step forward last year thanks to ultra-efficient performance in the red zone. Can it repeat that level of production this year? I'm not so sure. QB Spencer Petras loses his top two wide receivers from a year ago to begin with. Keep in mind, the Hawkeyes aerial attack managed just nine touchdowns all of last season. There's reason to believe the Iowa ground game can continue to find success, even with Mekhi Sargent moving on to the NFL (and impressing in preseason action with the Titans). Tyler Goodson is a quality running back that seems like he's been around forever, but he's not exactly a true home run hitter out of the backfield. There will be times where the Hawkeyes offense plods along in this contest. Last year, Hawkeyes home games produced 41, 56, 46 and 35 total points. That was about par for the course for a team that has become accustomed to playing tight, relatively low-scoring affairs here at Kinnick Stadium over the years. There will be opportunities to sneak in 'over' plays in games involving Iowa this season as we're almost always afforded relatively low totals. I just don't believe this is such a spot. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-04-21 | Temple v. Rutgers -14.5 | Top | 14-61 | Win | 100 | 48 h 24 m | Show |
CFB on BTN Game of the Year. My selection is on Rutgers minus the points over Temple at 3 pm et on Saturday. NOTE: This game was moved from Thursday to Saturday. We'll stick with our original play on Rutgers. Bettors are generally 'Rutgers-averse' as in they're not all that interested in backing the Scarlet Knights thanks to years of futility in Piscataway. Last season, the Knights actually made some headway despite a 3-6 overall record as they were highly-competitive and could have just as easily won six or seven games. Now, with their sights set on a possible Bowl game, I look for the Knights to get off to a strong start in their home opener against Temple. The Owls were one of the weakest teams in the nation in a unique Covid-tinged 2020 season. They finished 10th in the AAC, averaging just 20 points per game. The hope is that Georgia transfer D'Wan Mathis can be the answer at quarterback. He was the opening day starter for the mighty Bulldogs last year but struggled against Arkansas and only appeared in two more games before deciding to transfer. Mathis got that season-opening start due to necessity only as the Bulldogs were dealing with injuries at the position. Now he needs to learn a new offense and doesn't exactly have a cupboard full of weapons to work with. Re-al Mitchell could eat into some of Mathis' snaps. Keep in mind, Mitchell couldn't win the starting job last year, even after Anthony Russo went down to injury. Standout RB Re'Man Davis is gone. The owls coaching staff is saying all the right things when it comes to the Owls backfield options but they're also talking about a running back by committee approach. That tells me there's no true standout in the backfield entering the season. Defensively, the Owls got torched throughout the 2020 season. Now they lose their sack leader from a year ago, along with three defensive tackles. Two corners are gone as well, from a group that couldn't come up with any big plays with just three interceptions all season. Rutgers on the other hand is loaded with returning talent on the offensive side of the football. I like the stability and continuity of this group which will be led by QB Noah Vedral. He was asked to do a little too much last year and ultimately threw just nine touchdowns and eight interceptions. I expect a different story to unfold this year as he can let the likes of RB Isaih Pacheco and the outstanding WR duo of Bo Melton and Aron Cruickshank go to work. The o-line was an issue a year ago but gets all five starters back and there's really nowhere to go but up. This is a favorable matchup for that unit to ease its way into the new season as the Owls aren't likely to have a dominant pass rush. There are a couple of key losses for the Scarlet Knights to deal with on defense but they return the bulk of the unit that did enough last season to provide some optimism entering 2021. The Knights actually scooped one of Temple's best defenders from a year ago in the transfer portal in Ifeanyi Maijeh. He might not even earn a starting job which tells you that the Knights boast plenty of talent on the defensive line. They're loaded at linebacker and have something to build on in the secondary with a pair of corners that earned honorable mentions on the All-Big Ten list last season. I expect this defense to make progress this season, and like the o-line, it gets a favorable opening week matchup against a Temple offense that isn't likely to come out firing on all cylinders. If Rutgers is going to make a run at a Bowl game, this is a game it needs to win. With Syracuse and Delaware on deck there's a real chance for the Scarlet Knights to get off to a strong start before the schedule really toughens up in late September. I believe there's a class difference that simply isn't being represented with this line sitting under two touchdowns (at the time of writing). Take Rutgers (10*). | |||||||
09-03-21 | White Sox -114 v. Royals | 2-7 | Loss | -114 | 12 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Royals would certainly appear to have the edge given the two starting pitcher's current form entering Friday's series-opener. However, a closer look indicates the White Sox are well-positioned to keep winning off three consecutive victories. Kansas City is in an awful negative momentum situation here having gone 0-7 after scoring three runs or less in three consecutive games this season, outscored by a whopping 3.9 runs on average in that situation. The Royals are just 7-24 when coming off three or more consecutive losses this season, outscored by 3.3 runs on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the White Sox are a reliable favorite, having gone 94-47, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.9 runs when priced at -110 or higher over the last two seasons. Should this line climb a bit, they would be in a situation where they've gone 52-24 when priced between -125 and -175 over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 2.0 runs per contest on average in that spot. Take Chicago (9*). |
Service | Profit |
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Ricky Tran | $756 |
ProSportsPicks | $632 |
Joseph D'Amico | $510 |
Joey Tron | $450 |
Tom Macrina | $399 |
Nick Parsons | $344 |
Sean Murphy | $306 |
Jack Jones | $303 |
William Burns | $233 |
Dan Kaiser | $220 |