Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-07-22 | Saskatchewan v. Hamilton UNDER 49 | Top | 14-18 | Win | 100 | 36 h 57 m | Show |
Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Saskatchewan and Hamilton at 7:30 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'under' in the Riders blowout loss to the Blue Bombers last Friday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play this week as Saskatchewan travels to Hamilton to face the Tiger-Cats. The Riders have allowed their last three opponents to rack up 130+ rushing yards but that's had more to do with negative game script than anything else as they dropped all three contests, with two of them coming in blowout fashion against the Bombers. Hamilton doesn't figure to have the type of offense to take full advantage of the Riders defensive deficiencies, noting that it hasn't had a 100+ rushing yard game since August 12th against Toronto. The Riders pass defense has held up well, allowing just 27-of-49 completions over their last two games. You would have to go back six games to find the last time the Riders allowed an opponent to pass for over 300 yards. This is actually a higher posted total than we saw the last time these two teams met back in June - a game that totalled only 43 points. Note that the 'under' is 30-16 the last 46 times the Riders have played on the road after losing three of their last four games ATS, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 46.9 points. Meanwhile, the Ti-Cats have seen the 'under' go 34-18 the last 52 times they've sought revenge for a road loss by 17+ points against an opponent, which is also the situation here, leading to an average total of 48.2 points in that spot. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-07-22 | Mariners v. Blue Jays -125 | 4-0 | Loss | -125 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto over Seattle at 4:05 pm et on Friday. I'll back the Blue Jays on Friday as they hand the ball to Alek Manoah for the opener of their Wild Card showdown against the Mariners. Manoah may be making his first postseason start but he has plenty of big game experience pitching for Toronto down the stretch. In that time, Manoah thrived, allowing just six earned runs over his final eight regular season starts, covering a span of 54 innings of work. Impressively, he lasted at least six innings in all eight of those outings. Mariners starter Luis Castillo didn't bring a wealth of big game experience to the team coming from the perennial bottom-feeding Reds. We saw Castillo wilt under the pressure down the stretch, allowing 13 earned runs over his final five regular season outings - a span of 27 2/3 innings. Castillo lasted at least six innings in only two of those five starts. The bullpens are virtually a wash in this matchup but I'll give the Jays bats a considerable edge, noting that they averaged 6.0 runs per game over their final seven regular season contests while the Mariners put up just 4.9 rpg over that same stretch. Take Toronto (8*). | |||||||
10-06-22 | Colts +3.5 v. Broncos | Top | 12-9 | Win | 100 | 80 h 54 m | Show |
TNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Indianapolis plus the points over Denver at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Colts two weeks ago as they pulled off a stunning upset of the Chiefs at home. They couldn't follow it up with another victory last Sunday as they fell by a 24-17 score at home against the division-rival Titans. Note that Indianapolis was seemingly driving for the game-tying touchdown deep in Tennessee territory midway through the fourth quarter before a Jonathan Taylor fumble. Taylor is of course now injured and questionable to play on a short week. I'm not overly concerned with his potential absence as this Colts offense works just fine with Nyheim Hines in the backfield, who is more of a dual-threat back. Here, we'll note that the Colts are a perfect 6-0 ATS the last six times they've played on the road after losing two of their last three games ATS. The pressure is mounting in Denver as the Broncos are now 2-2 on the season off a loss to the Raiders in Las Vegas on Sunday. The Raiders were the first team to really run at this Broncos defensive front and they racked up 212 rushing yards on 38 attempts. Offensively, the Broncos have been a mess. It's getting to the point where you have to wonder whether Russell Wilson (and head coach Nathaniel Hackett for that matter) are the right fit running this offense. The Colts couldn't stop Derrick Henry last Sunday but that's nothing new. They did shut down the Titans passing game for the most part, allowing only 116 yards on 17-of-21 pass completions. Most are quick to write off Colts QB Matt Ryan who I'll admit appears 'washed' through the first four games of the season. I do think there's more to this team than just Ryan, however, and I'm confident head coach Frank Reich can scheme up a solid bounce-back performance from his team here. Take Indianapolis (10*). | |||||||
10-06-22 | PFC Ludogorets Razgrad v. HJK Helsinki OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
Europa League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between HJK Helsinki and Ludogorets Razgrad at 12:45 pm et on Thursday. With these two teams occupying the bottom two spots in the Group C table, we can anticipate both 'going for it' on Thursday in Helsinki. I like the way this one sets up as a relatively high-scoring affair. Note that Ludogorets Razgrad enters having gone winless in its last three matches, failing to record a clean sheet in any of those contests. Not surprisingly, its defensive deficiencies have led to the 'over' 2.5 goals going 7-2 in its last nine matches across all competitions. It's been a similar story for HJK Helsinki. It has seen each of its last five contests go 'over' 2.5 total goals. Neither side appears set on its back line - Helsinki's only saving grace has been keeper Conor Hazard but he's been relegated to bench duty on many occasions. Razgrad can be exploited on the right side of its defense and is likely to have little-used Simon Sluga between the sticks. While this isn't the most attractive matchup on paper, I do expect some offensive fireworks on Thursday. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-05-22 | Cubs v. Reds UNDER 8.5 | Top | 15-2 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
N.L. Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Cincinnati at 4:10 pm et on Wednesday. Neither of these teams have been scoring down the stretch, looking generally disinterested in doing anything other than 'playing out the string'. I expect nothing different in Wednesday's season-finale in Cincinnati. Adrian Sampson has actually been one of the Cubs most reliable starting pitchers this season, checking in with a 3.81 FIP and 1.20 WHIP while allowing just shy of 3.4 runs per nine innings. It's been a much different story for his opponent on Wednesday, Graham Ashcraft. He's had a trying rookie campaign in Cincinnati and will be facing the Cubs for the fourth time. On a positive note, he has limited the walks (2.3 per nine innings) and home runs (0.9 per nine innings). With the Reds having dropped each of his last three outings against the Cubs he'll be out for revenge here. While it's had a lot to do with facing disinterested opponents, the two bullpens have been terrific down the stretch with the Cubs relief corps posting a 2.28 ERA and 0.89 WHIP over the last seven games and the Reds 'pen recording a 2.83 ERA and 1.15 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-05-22 | AC Milan v. Chelsea OVER 2.5 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chelsea and AC Milan at 3 pm et on Wednesday. Injuries are the story ahead of this Group E showdown on Wednesday. Both teams are missing a number of key contributors with Milan decidedly worse off. With that being said, I'm still confident the visiting Italian side can find a goal in this contest, noting you would have to go back nine matches to find the last time Chelsea recorded a clean sheet. Over that stretch, the English side has seen six of eight contests go 'over' 2.5 total goals. As for Milan, it checks in with five of its last six matches going 'over' that number, with both sides finding the back of the net in all six of those contests. Milan enters this match particularly vulnerable at the back-end due to injury-related absences and I'm confident we'll see the Blues take full advantage. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
10-04-22 | Twins v. White Sox OVER 7 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a low-scoring game between these two teams last night. I expect a different story to unfold on Tuesday, however. Josh Winder will get the start for the visiting Twins. The White Sox will be getting their second look at him in less than a week after plating three earned runs in 4 2/3 innings against him on September 28th. He didn't give up a home run in that outing but that was an unlikely occurrence as he has been tagged for at least one long ball in four of his last five starts, giving up two in three of those outings. For the season, Winder owns a 4.90 FIP and 1.25 WHIP while yielding 1.5 home runs per nine innings. White Sox starter Lucas Giolito has labored through the 2022 campaign, recording a 4.07 FIP and 1.47 WHIP while giving up 1.4 home runs per nine innings (not to mention just shy of 10.0 hits per nine frames). The Twins will be getting their third look at the right-hander since September 4th, having scored four earned runs off of him in 10 innings in those two previous contests. Between the two bullpens this season, we've seen a whopping 47 combined blown saves so the potential for late runs is there as well. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-04-22 | Napoli v. Ajax Amsterdam OVER 3 | Top | 6-1 | Win | 103 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
Champions League Total of the Month. My selection is on the first half 'over' between Ajax and Napoli at 3 pm et on Tuesday. I expect plenty of fireworks in this showdown between Group A's top two teams in Amsterdam on Tuesday. Napoli sits atop the group having recorded two victories in as many tries in this stage. It will be in tough trying to hold off a terrific Ajax side here, however. Note that both teams check in having seen five of their last six matches go 'over' 2.5 total goals. More importantly for our purposes, both sides have shown the ability to strike first. Ajax has scored first in eight of its last nine matches while you would have to go back six contests to find the last time Napoli didn't find the back of the net first. In that vein, we've also seen Dutch side Ajax lead at halftime in seven of its last nine matches. However, it has gone winless in its last three contests across all competitions while Napoli brings an incredible 21-match undefeated streak into this one. Both sides are explosive up front. Mohammed Kudus has gone scoreless in his last three matches, including a pair of games for his national team, Ghana. I expect him to make amends with Ajax here. Napoli has the firepower to answer, however, noting that it just tallied three first half markers in its Serie A victory over Torino this past Saturday. Take the first half over (10*). | |||||||
10-04-22 | Sporting Lisbon +0.5 v. Marseille | 1-4 | Loss | -145 | 5 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sporting CP +0.5 goals first half over Olympique Marseille at 12:45 pm et on Tuesday. Sporting has been the class of Group D with convincing clean sheet victories over both Tottenham and Eintracht Frankfurt. It will need to avoid letting its guard down on Tuesday as it travels to France to challenge winless Marseille. I like its chances of at least getting off to a strong start in this one. Note that Lisbon has scored first in five of its last six matches across all competitions while Marseille has conceded the first goal in four of its last five contests. Noting that Sporting is just one match removed from a disappointing 3-1 defeat at the hands of Boavista in Primeria Liga play I don't envision it coming out flat here. There are advantages all over the field for Lisbon but particularly up front as Marcus Edwards and Francisco Trincao have been excellent while Marseille defenders Mbemba and Gigot have looked vulnerable. Marseille keeper Pau Lopez has been strong in his last few matches but not as sharp in Champions League play. Meanwhile, Sporting keeper Antonio Adan has recorded three consecutive clean sheets in Champions League action. Here, we're only asking for Sporting to keep it level through 45 minutes. Take Sporting CP +0.5 goals first half (8*). | |||||||
10-03-22 | Rams v. 49ers UNDER 42.5 | Top | 9-24 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
NFC West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and San Francisco at 8:15 pm et on Monday. The 49ers have seen all three of their games stay 'under' the total this season and I expect more of the same on Monday night. A lot of what San Francisco wanted to do offensively went out the window when QB Trey Lance went down to a season-ending injury in Week 2 against Seattle (we won with the Niners in that game). Jimmy Garoppolo is more than capable of running an NFL offense - and the Niners offense in particular - but I don't think we're going to see many blowup spots from this unit. This is obviously a difficult matchup against a Rams defense that knows Garoppolo's tendencies and gives up little against the run. Compounding matters for San Francisco is the absence of all-world tackle Trent Williams after he suffered an ankle injury last Sunday night. I'm higher on his backup, Colton McKivitz, than most but the absence of Williams is only part of the problem as the San Francisco o-line continues to deal with issues on the interior, issues that the Rams standout defensive line can exploit. TE George Kittle has been a virtual non-factor this season and that's unlikely to change as he's needed in pass protection far too often. On the flip side, the Rams offense looks broken. Yes, there was a strong first half against the Falcons two weeks ago but outside of that this unit has had a miserable time coming up with big plays, whether on the ground or through the air. Here, L.A. will likely be banging its head against the wall trying to run on a Niners defense that yields just 2.9 yards per rush this season. Last week against a bad Arizona defense, the Rams were gifted excellent starting position (on the Cardinals 35-yard line) on their first drive but needed nine plays to eventually settle for a field goal. They were again handed excellent field position on their next drive and did convert a Cooper Kupp touchdown but from there it was three-and-out, field goal, three-and-out and three-and-out on their next four drives. Speaking of Kupp, he has owned the Niners recently, however it's worth noting that even in a game where he racked up 140+ receiving yards and two touchdowns in last January's NFC Championship, the Rams still only managed to score 20 points. While I do expect both offenses to move up and down the field in this one, I question how many drives they'll end with 7's rather than 3's. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 5-2 in the 49ers last seven games off a road loss and better still, the 'under' is a perfect 4-0 the last four times they've come off an outright loss as a road favorite, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-03-22 | Diamondbacks v. Brewers -1.5 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
N.L. Non-Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Milwaukee -1.5 runs over Arizona at 7:40 pm et on Monday. I understand the hesitation to lay an extra run with a Brewers team that has had a tough enough time simply winning games lately, let alone by margin. With that being said, I like the spot on Monday as the Brew Crew look to bounce back from consecutive one-run losses against the Marlins as they host a D'Backs club simply playing out the string on the final stop of this road trip that has already taken them to Houston and San Francisco. Brewers starter Brandon Woodruff has supplanted Corbin Burnes as the team's 'ace', reeling off a stretch of four consecutive incredible outings. Over that stretch, Woodruff has allowed just four earned runs on 18 hits while striking out 42 and walking only five in 26 innings of work. Arizona will counter with rookie left-hander Tommy Henry. He got off to a reasonably solid start this season but the wheels have since come off as he's been tagged for 17 earned runs on 20 hits over his last three starts, covering a span of just 13 innings. Behind Henry is a D'Backs bullpen that has posted a 5.96 ERA and 1.54 WHIP over the last seven games. Noting that the Brewers have won each of Woodruff's last three starts by 3+ runs, I'm comfortable backing them on the run-line here. Take Milwaukee -1.5 runs (10*). | |||||||
10-02-22 | Patriots +10.5 v. Packers | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 25 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on New England plus the points over Green Bay at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. Are we sure that Brian Hoyer is that much of a downgrade over Mac Jones at quarterback for the Patriots? Hoyer knows the offense and likely won't be asked to do too much anyway in this game. The Patriots have one of the more underrated backfields in the NFL and will look to pound away against a vulnerable Packers defense that has yielded north of 5.0 yards per rush this season. Green Bay checks in off consecutive wins both SU and ATS, taking advantage of two inept offenses (albeit for different reasons) in the Bears and Buccaneers. On paper, this looks like a similar matchup against the Pats but I'm not ready to write off New England just yet. Last week was a poor matchup for the Pats against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens but I expect them to fare much better defensively against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, who will likely look to go run-heavy in this matchup. It all leads to plenty of long, clock-churning drives, effectively shortening this game and favorite the underdog Pats. Take New England (8*). | |||||||
10-02-22 | Bills -3 v. Ravens | Top | 23-20 | Push | 0 | 22 h 46 m | Show |
AFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over Baltimore at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Bills employed the right strategy with an undermanned defense in the Miami heat last Sunday, churning out long offensive drives that effectively shortened the game. The problem was, they couldn't finish their drives with 7's on the board and it ultimately cost them in a stunning defeat. Here, I look for Buffalo to bounce back with a big win over the Ravens, who are off a considerable victory of their own in New England last Sunday. Ravens QB Lamar Jackson has been running wild but I'm confident the Bills can contain him - at least on the ground - in this one. Man-to-man defense just doesn't work against the dual-threat Jackson. Buffalo will likely stick to zone here and force Lamar to beat it through the air. Offensively, the Bills should feast on a banged-up Ravens defense. Josh Allen is highly unlikely to turn in two 'bad' games in a row - and I use that term loosely. Let's not forget that the Ravens made Patriots sophomore QB Mac Jones look good last week. Allen should go off in this spot and I look for the Bills to 'get right', noting that Buffalo has gone 28-14 ATS the last 42 times it has played on the road off a road loss, as is the case here. Take Buffalo (10*). | |||||||
10-02-22 | Titans v. Colts OVER 43 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 36 m | Show |
AFC South Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday. We missed with the 'over' in the Colts upset win over the Chiefs last Sunday but did win with Indy plus the points. Here, I'm willing to go back to the well with the same play as Indy stays at home to host the division-rival Titans, who check in off their first win of the season. This is a blow-up spot for Colts RB Jonathan Taylor against a Titans defense that gives up a whopping 6.1 yards per rush this season. Everyone is down on Colts QB Matt Ryan, who I'll admit looks a little washed at this point of his career. With that being said, Michael Pittman Jr. is back healthy and Ryan does have a 300+ yard passing game under his best this season (back in Week 1 against Houston). I'm willing to bet against the Titans defense here. On the flip side, the Titans offense couldn't have looked any worse against Buffalo two weeks ago. That was very much game script related, however, as they dug a massive hole and had to throw their gameplan out the window. Here, I'm confident we'll see the Titans use RB Derrick Henry effectively against a Colts defense that will once again be without LB Shaquille Leonard. Credit the Colts defense for stepping up against the Chiefs last week but the Titans can score on this unit, as we saw in last year's wild 34-31 victory on this field. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-01-22 | San Jose State -2.5 v. Wyoming | 33-16 | Win | 100 | 80 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Jose State minus the points over Wyoming at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. I can't help but feel that this is a 'anything you can do, I can do better' situation favoring San Jose State. The Spartans are off to a modest 2-1 start but there's no shame in their lone defeat as it came on the road against Auburn, by only eight points. Last week, we saw San Jose State follow up its bye week with a lopsided 34-6 win over Western Michigan. In that game, we saw the Spartans offense finally get loose, scoring three offensive touchdowns in a 19-minute stretch at one point. Going back over its last two games, San Jose State has allowed just three touchdowns. This is a talented, experienced defense that should eat against a beatable Wyoming offensive line and a shaky starting quarterback in Andrew Peasley. Once BYU got rolling, Wyoming simply had no answers defensively last week, at one point allowing three touchdowns in a 14-minute stretch bridging the second and third quarters. Credit the Cowboys for prevailing by a 17-14 score against Air Force two weeks ago (we won with Wyoming in that game) but it's generally been an inconsistent start to the season on both sides of the football. Remember, back in Week 1 we saw Wyoming fail to reach the end zone while also allowing five offensive touchdown scores against a lukewarm Illinois squad. You could chalk that up to rust but the next week, the Cowboys gave up four touchdowns over a 24-minute period against Tulsa. There are some good pieces in place for Craig Bohl's Cowboys (as I noted in my play supporting them two weeks ago) but it's still likely to be a long season. Noting that San Jose State took last year's meeting by a 27-21 score, we'll go back to the well with the Spartans here. Take San Jose State (8*). | |||||||
10-01-22 | Texas A&M v. Mississippi State -3.5 | 24-42 | Win | 100 | 75 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Mississippi State minus the points over Texas A&M at 4 pm et on Saturday. Texas A&M goes from being the hunters to the hunted this week after 'upsetting' then-10th ranked Arkansas by a 23-21 score at AT&T Stadium last week. Here, it's Mississippi State that will be looking to break back into the Top 25 as it hosts the Aggies in Starkville. I like the Bulldogs chances of delivering a convincing victory. Texas A&M has come up with consecutive much-needed victories over Miami and Arkansas after its stunning loss at home against Appalachian State back on September 10th. I will note that the Aggies appeared on their way to another loss against Arkansas last week as the Hogs were at A&M's three-yard line late in the first half looking to jump ahead 21-7 before fumbling with A&M returning that fumble for a 97-yard touchdown. That obviously turned the tide in that contest. The Aggies made the switch to Max Johnson at quarterback prior to the win over Miami two weeks ago. The fact is, Johnson has done little other than 'manage' the last two games, completing only 21-of-41 passes for 291 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. Here, he'll likely do a whole lot more to match Bulldogs QB Will Rogers, who just tossed six touchdown passes in last week's rout of Bowling Green. Of course public sentiment is still rather low on the Bulldogs after their nationally-televised 31-16 loss to LSU two weeks ago. While the second half against the Tigers didn't go Mississippi State's way, I've been impressed by its other 14 quarters of football played so far this season. While last week's win over Bowling Green was expected, the fact that the Bulldogs put up 31 first half points and ultimately scored offensive touchdowns in all four quarters was encouraging and the perfect springboard heading into this critical matchup. Take Mississippi State (8*). | |||||||
10-01-22 | Georgia State v. Army -7.5 | Top | 31-14 | Loss | -107 | 96 h 22 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Army minus the points over Georgia State at 12 noon et on Saturday. Poor tackling has been Georgia State's calling card on the way to an 0-4 record this seaosn. That doesn't bode well as the Panthers head to West Point to take on Army and its triple-option offense on Saturday. In last week's loss against Coastal Carolina, Georgia State allowed three touchdowns in the game's first 14 minutes, including two in the first five minutes on its way to a 41-24 loss. Even when the Chanticleers were simply trying to pick up a few first downs and run out the clock late, the Panthers gave up another touchdown (we unfortunately lost the 'under' as a result). The week previous, Georgia State allowed five offensive touchdowns in a 42-41 loss to Charlotte. Meanwhile, the Panthers offense has looked good for stretches but hasn't shown nearly enough consistency. Case in point, back in Week 2, when they had a shot at upsetting North Carolina, they went scoreless over the game's final 17 minutes, allowing a pair of Tar Heels touchdowns to lose 35-28. They scored a pair of first half touchdowns against Coastal Carolina last week but their offense was held out of the end zone for the entire second half. Army entered the season with sky-high hopes but things haven't gone as planned as it is off to a 1-2 start. With that said, the Black Knights did finally get loose for a 49-10 rout of a quality FCS opponent in Villanova last week. In that game, we saw Army score three touchdowns in a 21-minute stretch in the first half, before it added three more offensive touchdowns in the second half. There was no shame in Army's two losses this season as they came at the hands of aforementioned Coastal Carolina and UTSA - two teams that will more than likely be Bowl-bound. In those two games, the Black Knights still managed to put up a combined 66 points. Note that these two teams met last season and the result was no contest as Army won by a 43-10 score. The talent gap might just be wider this year but it's certainly not reflected by the pointspread. Take Army (10*). | |||||||
10-01-22 | Kentucky +7 v. Ole Miss | Top | 19-22 | Win | 100 | 96 h 3 m | Show |
My selection is on Kentucky plus the points over Ole Miss at 12 noon et on Saturday. This is one of the better games on Saturday's college football slate and I really like the way it sets up for the underdog Wildcats. Kentucky enters this game with an identical 4-0 record to that of Ole Miss. While it hasn't been quite as flashy, the Wildcats offense has delivered nonetheless and I expect it to again in this spot. While Kentucky won by 'only' eight points as a near four touchdown favorite against Northern Illinois last week, I didn't come away overly concerned as I'm actually higher than most on the Huskies this year. Kentucky allowed a pair of first half touchdowns in that game but then held the Huskies out of the end zone until the game's final three minutes, when it was already comfortably in front by 14 points. Going back three games, the Wildcats went on the road and impressively defeated Florida by a 26-16 score (we won with the 'under' in that game). They didn't give up a touchdown until the final six minutes of the first half in that contest and after that didn't allow another offensive score of any kind the rest of the way. Then there's the Kentucky offense. It scored a touchdown in all four quarters in last week's win over NIU. Two games back the Wildcats scored four offensive touchdowns in a 21-minute stretch in the first half against then-undefeated FCS squad Youngstown State. Ole Miss rushed out to five first half touchdowns last week against Tulsa. It's worth noting, however, that the Rebels didn't score another point from there, despite Tulsa closing the gap to a couple of scores less than five minutes into the third quarter. We've seen inconsistent stretches like that from the Rebels at times this season, partially due to game script but also in part as a result of QB Jaxson Dart still figuring things out. He's completed just 51-of-82 passes, throwing for 200+ yards only once while tossing five touchdowns to go along with two interceptions. This will clearly be his toughest test to date. Last year's matchup was a barn-burner with Ole Miss prevailing by a 42-41 score. I expect this one to go down to the wire as well. Take Kentucky (8*). | |||||||
10-01-22 | Texas Tech +8 v. Kansas State | Top | 28-37 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 20 m | Show |
Conference Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Texas Tech plus the points over Kansas State at 12 noon et on Saturday. Kansas State is coming off a massive upset win over Oklahoma last week but I expect the Wildcats to have their hands full with Texas Tech as they return to Manhattan this Saturday. In that victory, the Wildcats scored three touchdowns in the game's first 24 minutes but then stalled until QB Adrian Martinez put the team on his back with a pair of fourth quarter touchdown runs. By all accounts, it was a career game for Martinez, the type of performance that he'll have a difficult time replicating this week. Lost in the victory was the fact that the Kansas State defense yielded two touchdowns in around five minutes on two different occasions in that contest. Keep in mind, this is a Wildcats squad that is just one game removed from losing outright by a 17-10 score at home against Tulane. Yes, there was also a 40-12 rout of Missouri earlier in the season but even in that game we saw the Wildcats offense stall for an extended stretch, held out of the end zone from 13 minutes remaining in the second quarter until 13 minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. Texas Tech picked up a much-needed rebound victory over Texas last Saturday, successfully bouncing back from a 27-14 loss on the road against a terrific N.C. State team the week previous. It's worth noting that the Red Raiders allowed just two offensive touchdowns in that loss to the Wolfpack. Earlier, in a wild 33-30 overtime win over Houston, Texas Tech allowed only one offensive touchdown in regulation time and that didn't come until nearly two minutes into the third quarter. Of course, the Red Raiders offense is fine. They scored touchdowns in all four quarters against a pretty good Texas defense last week. QB Donovan Smith got a little turnover-happy in those aforementioned games against Houston and N.C. State but has already thrown for 1,100+ yards and nine touchdowns while also adding three rushing scores. Take Texas Tech (10*). | |||||||
09-30-22 | Washington v. UCLA +3 | Top | 32-40 | Win | 100 | 108 h 59 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Year. My selection is on UCLA plus the points over Washington at 10:30 pm et on Friday. I really like the way this one sets up for UCLA as it hosts undefeated Washington on Friday night. The Huskies are 4-0 but who have they really beaten of substance? The easy answer is Michigan State and Stanford, representing their last two victories. I'm just not convinced either of those two teams are all that good, certainly not Stanford. Keep in mind this will be Washington's first road game of the season. UCLA is also 4-0 but had a big-time scare in an eventual 32-31 win over South Alabama two weeks ago that seems to be giving a lot of bettors' pause in this spot. Let's keep things in perspective - South Alabama is a quality team off to a 3-1 start. The Bruins got into a fight they probably didn't expect in that contest and ultimately prevailed, holding the Jaguars off the scoreboard for the entire fourth quarter in a come-from-behind win that they're probably now stronger because of. Last week, the Bruins rolled to a 45-17 win over Colorado. That margin could have probably been even wider in that contest were it not for a couple of defensive lapses at the end of the first half and fourth quarter. They were already ahead 21-3 when they allowed Colorado to run in a short touchdown in the final 20 seconds of the first half. UCLA didn't allow another score until the outcome as long decided, up 48-10 in the game's final three minutes. I'm more concerned about Washington's defense, which allowed three touchdowns in the game's final 34 minutes against a rather punchless Stanford attack last week. The Huskies got off to a tremendous start against Michigan State the week previous but went on to allow 28 points in the game's final 32 minutes with the final score of 39-28 far closer than they would have liked. Here, we'll note that UCLA is 23-7 ATS the last 30 times it has played at home after scoring 42+ points in its previous game, outscoring opponents by 17.7 points on average in that situation. Take UCLA (10*). | |||||||
09-30-22 | Ottawa v. BC OVER 46.5 | 19-34 | Win | 100 | 60 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Ottawa and B.C. at 10:30 pm et on Friday. I like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair, much like we saw in the first meeting between these two teams this season - a contest that resulted in 65 points back in late June. Ottawa has seemingly thrown caution to the wind offensively down the stretch, attempting 33, 31, 40 and 54 passes over its last four games. After scoring just 19 and 15 points in its last two contests, I look for the RedBlacks to bounce back with a big offensive performance here. That's because B.C.'s defense has sagged. It has allowed its three highest rushing yard totals of the season over its last four games. The Lions have also yielded their opponents 24+ pass completions in three of their last five games. Each of their last two games came against the Calgary Stampeders and in those two contests they allowed 53-of-72 passes for 595 yards. Even three games back, when the Lions limited the Alouettes to 16-of-24 passing and only 163 yards through the air, they still gave up 31 points. I understand why we're actually working with a lower total than we saw in the first matchup between these two teams this season and it has a lot to do with the Lions quarterback situation. Regardless, I'm anticipating a shootout. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
09-30-22 | San Diego State v. Boise State -5.5 | Top | 13-35 | Win | 100 | 106 h 43 m | Show |
Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Boise State minus the points over San Diego State at 8 pm et on Friday. San Diego State won 27-16 as a three-point home underdog in last year's matchup between these two teams. I look for Boise State to answer back on Friday night. It's not easy to get behind the Broncos right now. They're coming off a stunning 27-10 loss at UTEP last week and after that putrid offensive performance, fired offensive coordinator Tim Plough. There's no reason for Boise State to be as inconsistent offensively as it has been in the first month of the season. While San Diego State is always tough defensively, perhaps there's reason to believe Boise State can break through against the Aztecs here. San Diego State has actually struggled against any opponent with an offensive pulse this season, namely Arizona and Utah. In the opener against the Wildcats, the Aztecs allowed four touchdowns over a 22-minute stretch from the second to fourth quarter. It was a similar story against Utah as San Diego State yielded five touchdowns over a 23-minute stretch in the second and third quarters. The problem is, the Aztecs don't have the type of offense that can respond, at least not very quickly. As I did two weeks ago in my analysis of a play on Utah over San Diego State, I'm still questioning whether Virginia Tech transfer QB Braxton Burmeister is the right fit in this offense. In fact, it's becoming evident that he's not. Boise State has had its own issues offensively but the pieces are still in place to turn it around, and relieving Plough of his duties should provide a spark. The Broncos defense has been solid. Even in last week's setback, it didn't allow a touchdown until the final three minutes of the first half and then gave up only one offensive touchdown the rest of the way, that coming in the final five minutes of the fourth quarter. Boise State has actually given up just five offensive touchdowns over its last 14 quarters of action (after a rough season-opening first half against Oregon State). All is not lost as the Broncos get four of their next five games at home but it has to start with a victory here. Note that Boise State checks in a long-term 41-24 ATS when coming off two ATS losses in its last three games, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 18.2 points in that situation. Take Boise State (10*). | |||||||
09-30-22 | Saskatchewan v. Winnipeg UNDER 48 | Top | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 57 h 29 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Saskatchewan and Winnipeg at 8 pm et on Friday. This will be the third meeting between these two teams in the last four games. The first was a low-scoring affair (we won with the 'under' in that contest) as the Blue Bombers eked out a 20-18 win. Playing on a short week, the rematch was a track meet with Winnipeg prevailing by a 54-20 score. Here, I'm anticipating something closer resembling the first matchup as the two teams come off their respective bye weeks. It's worth noting that this total is higher than both of the previous meetings. When we last saw Winnipeg take the field, it was routed by a 48-31 score in Hamilton. Needless to say it will be focused on getting things back under control defensively on Friday. We're still talking about one of the league's best defensive teams. The Riders lost 26-24 against the lowly Elks last time out. Edmonton ran wild in that game, racking up 202 rushing yards on just 22 carries. I'm willing to chalk that up as an anomaly as Saskatchewan has allowed just 95 rush yards per game this season. It is worth noting that the Riders did hold Edmonton to 13-of-24 passing for 237 yards and haven't allowed an opponent to pass for 300+ yards since August 19th against B.C. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 16-6 the last 22 times the Riders have played on the road off an upset loss against a division opponent, with that spot producing an average total of just 44.0 points. Meanwhile, the 'under' has gone 14-4 the last 18 times the Bombers have come off an upset loss by 17+ points, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 47.5 points. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-30-22 | Royals +121 v. Guardians | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Kansas City over Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Friday. This will be our last chance to back Brady Singer this season and I like his chances of lifting the Royals out of their current slide. Singer checks in having posted a 0.45 ERA and 0.90 WHIP over his last three starts. Kansas City has incredibly won eight of his last nine trips to the hill. Note that the Royals did lose in a Singer start against these same Guardians earlier this month but I look for him to get his revenge here. Here, we'll note that the Royals are 21-13 in Singer's last 34 starts against A.L. Central opponents over the last two seasons. Aaron Civale will take the ball for Cleveland. He owns a 4.41 ERA and 0.86 WHIP over his last three starts. Note that the Guardians have won just twice in his five career outings against Kansas City including an 11-1 defeat in his lone previous start against the Royals here at home. Take Kansas City (10*). | |||||||
09-30-22 | Tulane v. Houston UNDER 55.5 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 105 h 4 m | Show |
AAC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Tulane and Houston at 7 pm et on Friday. The lookahead total for this game was much higher than the number we're currently dealing with and rightfully so. I still feel there's considerable value backing the 'under' on Friday night in Houston. Tulane is off to an impressive 3-1 start but it will be in a foul mood after suffering a 27-24 defeat at home against Southern Miss last Saturday. The Green Wave offense got off to a predictably hot start thanks to a schedule that saw it open against UMass and FCS squad Alcorn State. Tulane impressed in a 17-10 road win against Kansas State but that upset victory was obviously fuelled by its defense as it held the Wildcats out of the end zone until the final three minutes of the first half and then didn't give up another touchdown the rest of the way. Even in the losing effort against Southern Miss last Saturday, the Green Wave allowed only two offensive touchdowns (the Eagles also returned an interception for a touchdown). While Houston has been involved in some high-scoring games, its offense hasn't been the juggernaut that most were expecting. The Cougars barely eked out a 34-27 win over Rice last Saturday. In that contest they scored a touchdown in the final seconds of the first quarter but then didn't reach the end zone again until early in the third quarter. They only prevailed thanks to a fumble return for a touchdown in the final four minutes of the fourth quarter. Save for a 38-30 loss against Kansas, the Houston defense has played well. It's worth noting that the Cougars jumped ahead 14-0 early in that game against the Jayhawks and probably figured they would cruise the rest of the way. In a road date against Texas Tech in Week 2, Houston allowed a pair of second quarter touchdowns but that was it until overtime (that game totalled 63 points but included 23 points in two overtime sessions). The Cougars season-opener against UTSA needed three overtimes to decide. That game didn't feature any scoring until the second quarter and totalled only 48 points in regulation time. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-29-22 | Dolphins v. Bengals -3 | 15-27 | Win | 100 | 79 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cincinnati minus the points over Miami at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. I really like the way this spot sets up for the Bengals as they return home on a short week off their first win of the season and catch the Dolphins with a banged-up starting quarterback in Tua Tagovailoa coming off their biggest win in years over the division-rival and Super Bowl favorite Bills. Buffalo employed a curious offensive gameplan against Miami on Sunday, clearly looking to churn out long drives on offense in an effort to keep their severely undermanned defense (particularly in the secondary) off the field for as long as possible. It worked to some extent as Miami was only able to run 39 plays (compared to Buffalo's 90). However, it also seemed as if the Bills shot themselves in the foot time and time again electing to go with short-gainers and struggling to finish drives with touchdowns. Here, I expect the Bengals to attack the Dolphins vulnerable defense relentlessly. Arguably Miami's top defensive player, CB Xavien Howard, continues to nurse a groin injury and playing on a short week after getting a heavy workload, primarily against Bills WR Stefon Diggs, last Sunday doesn't help matters. Miami hasn't been particularly stout against the run or the pass - even the Bills were able to gain 115 yards on 23 rush attempts against them on Sunday. As I mentioned, Cincinnati picked up its first win of the season in blowout fashion against the Jets on Sunday. Perhaps most importantly, the offensive line held up for Joe Burrow and since turning the football over five times in Week 1 against Pittsburgh, Cincinnati has now committed just one turnover over the last two games. On the flip side, the Dolphins have forced only one turnover in the last two games after taking the football away from the Patriots three times in Week 1. Here, we'll note that Miami is a woeful 8-23 ATS the last 31 times it has come off an outright underdog win against a division opponent, outscored by an average margin of 4.7 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Bengals are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after losing two of their last three contests, which is the situation here. Take Cincinnati (8*). | |||||||
09-29-22 | Dolphins v. Bengals OVER 47.5 | Top | 15-27 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 16 m | Show |
TNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Cincinnati at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. We missed with the 'over' in the Dolphins 21-19 upset win over the Bills on Sunday after cashing with the same play in their thrilling come-from-behind shootout win over the Ravens the week previous. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play for a third consecutive week. Buffalo not-so-mysteriously employed a 'keep-away' strategy against the Dolphins on Sunday, clearly doing so in an effort to protect their severely undermanned defense, particularly in the secondary. The Bills effectively shortened the game, churning out long drives and eating plenty of clock but it ultimately worked to their detriment as they couldn't finish drives with touchdowns, not often enough at least. Here, I expect the Bengals to go on the attack early and often on offense, noting that they've already attempted 53, 36 and 36 passes in their first three games, with the latter tally coming in Sunday's lopsided win over the Jets - a game where you would have assumed game script would have led to the opposite gameplan. With Joe Mixon banged-up, I'm not convinced we'll see the Bengals go run-heavy here. We finally saw their much-maligned offensive line start to come together in Sunday's win and I'm confident we'll see further progression here. The Dolphins secondary is ripe for the picking in my opinion, especially with CB Xavien Howard still nursing a groin injury and playing on a short week after getting a heavy dose of Bills WR Stefon Diggs on Sunday. As for the Miami offense, whether Tua Tagovailoa can go or not (he's dealing with head/back injuries - shrouded in a cloud of mystery as of Monday), I'm confident we'll see Mike McDaniel employ an aggressive gameplan, knowing his team will likely need to score more than the 21 points it put up on Sunday in order to stay undefeated for another week. The Bengals couldn't have faced a weaker slate of opposing quarterbacks through three weeks, going up against Mitchell Trubisky, Cooper Rush and Joe Flacco. Still, they allowed 674 passing yards on just 68 completions. We already know the Dolphins can play fast and put up points playing from behind after their massive Week 2 comeback against the Ravens. That's the projected game script here as well as they check in as a road underdog against the Bengals. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 7-1 in the Bengals last eight games when coming off a double-digit victory and a modest 11-9 in the Dolphins last 20 games following an 'under' result. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-29-22 | Utah State v. BYU -24 | Top | 26-38 | Loss | -110 | 83 h 38 m | Show |
My selection is on BYU minus the points over Utah State at 8 pm et on Thursday. Utah State might not be the worst defensive team in the country but it's in the conversation. Looking back, all of the signs were there in the Aggies 31-20 Week 0 victory over Connecticut. The Huskies have one of the most punchless offenses in the nation yet they managed to score 20 points, including two first quarter touchdowns in Utah State's season and home-opener. From there we saw an expected rout at the hands of Alabama before the Aggies returned home for what should have been a big bounce-back performance against FCS squad Weber State. Instead, Utah State lost 35-7. Last Saturday, the Aggies gave up three touchdowns in the game's first 19 minutes on their way to a 34-24 defeat. You get the picture. BYU figures to take advantage. The Cougars weren't their sharpest offensively but still scored four touchdowns in the first three quarters on their way to a 38-24 win over a 'tough out' in the Wyoming Cowboys last Saturday (we won with Wyoming in its outright upset of Air Force a week earlier). BYU allowed a touchdown just under two minutes into the second quarter in that contest but then held the Cowboys out of the end zone until the fourth quarter. Note that earlier this season we saw the Cougars hold a potent Baylor offense out of the end zone until less than two minutes remaining in the first half, eventually winning that game by a 26-20 score in double-overtime. There was also a Week 1 performance where BYU didn't give up any points until South Florida found the end zone with seconds remaining in the first half - after it had fallen behind 38-0. Yes, there was a blowout loss at Oregon but that was a tough spot for BYU after starting 2-0 and coming off that big win over Baylor (note that the Ducks have scored 155 points over their last three games). BYU went on the road and won 34-20 against a much stronger Utah State squad last year - an Aggies team that essentially caught lightning in a bottle. With QB Logan Bonner mired in an awful stretch it stands to reason that Utah State could make a change at quarterback here. I'm just not convinced anyone is going to turn things around on the road on a short week against a quality opponent like BYU. Take BYU (10*). | |||||||
09-28-22 | Orioles v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
A.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Baltimore and Boston at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. We've seen two high-scoring games to open this series and I expect more of the same on Wednesday. Dean Kremer will take the ball for the playoff-hungry Orioles. Kremer is coming off a complete game shutout against the Astros - an incredible feat to be sure. However, here he's in a tough spot as he makes his third consecutive start on just four days' rest. Note that prior to tossing that complete game shutout he had allowed seven earned runs over his last three starts, covering a span of 16 2/3 innings. The Red Sox will be seeing Kremer for the third time this season and over the course of his career, the right-hander has posted a 7.23 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in four starts against Boston. Veteran left-hander Rich Hill will counter for Boston. He pitched five shutout innings against the Orioles just a couple of weeks ago. I'm confident we'll see the O's make the necessary adjustments here. Note that when Baltimore previously saw Hill on May 30th, it plated six earned runs in just four innings. Both bullpens are a mess right now. Baltimore's 'pen entered last night's action sporting a 7.25 ERA and 1.70 WHIP over the last seven games. The Red Sox relief corps recorded a 6.26 ERA and 1.52 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-27-22 | Royals v. Tigers -103 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Detroit over Kansas City at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. These two teams are playing some of their best baseball of the season down the stretch, not coincidentally as they deal with zero pressure having been out of the playoff race for months. Zack Greinke will get the start for the visiting Royals on Tuesday. He hasn't been awful this year, but he hasn't been good either. Greinke checks in with a 4.13 FIP and 1.39 WHIP while allowing just shy of 4.6 runs per nine innings. Behind him is a Royals bullpen that continues to struggle, having posted a collective 5.40 ERA and 1.55 WHIP over the last seven games. Detroit will counter with rookie Joey Wentz. He's been quietly impressive since returning to the bigs, lowering his FIP to 2.94 and his WHIP to 0.96 while yielding just 3.13 runs per nine innings in five starts this season. He actually faced the Royals on the road back on September 9th and didn't allow a single earned run over 6 2/3 innings - the best start of his young career. Should Wentz falter, the Tigers bullpen behind him has been solid lately, logging a collective 3.63 ERA and 1.30 WHIP with three saves converted and none blown over the last seven games. The Detroit 'pen has blown only six saves at home this season while recording a 3.50 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Take Detroit (10*). | |||||||
09-27-22 | Iceland +0.5 v. Albania | 1-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Iceland +0.5 goals over Albania at 2:45 pm et on Tuesday. You have to go back seven matches to find the last time Albania posted a victory while Iceland has gone undefeated in its last five matches across all competitions. In fact, Albania hasn't found the back of the net more than once in any of its last 10 matches and when you consider it hasn't recorded a clean sheet in any of its last five meetings with Iceland, you can understand why it faces a tough hill to climb laying a half-goal here. There's nothing left to play for in Group 2 as Israel has already wrapped up top spot and the promotion that goes along with it. I don't expect Iceland to simply roll over, however, as it looks to take something away from this trip. Albania did deliver a 4-2 victory over Iceland on home soil back in 2019 but that was with a much different side that boasted plenty of firepower up front. Here, Albania is shorthanded at the midfield position with Endri Cekici and Keidi Bare sidelined due to injury. Take Iceland +0.5 goals (8*). | |||||||
09-26-22 | Cowboys +1 v. Giants | Top | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 22 h 24 m | Show |
NFC East Game of the Month. My selection is on Dallas plus the points over New York at 8:15 pm et on Monday. Just over a week ago, few gave the Cowboys a shot at upsetting the Bengals with Dak Prescott sidelined and a banged-up offensive line tasked with the challenge of keeping backup QB Cooper Rush upright. What did Dallas do? It went out and delivered a victory over the Bengals - Rush's second high-profile win in Prescott's absence after defeating the Vikings on the road in a Sunday night game last October. Here, I believe Dallas can employ a similar gameplan to what we saw last Sunday against Cincinnati, but it will be dealing with an offense with far fewer weapons. By all accounts, New York has used smoke and mirrors to open the season 2-0, rallying in the fourth quarter for a win in Tennessee in Week 1 and scoring only 19 points in a field goal victory over the Panthers in last Sunday's home opener. RB Saquon Barkley has been the engine on offense as QB Daniel Jones has a limited amount of talent to work with at the wide receiver and tight end positions. The Cowboys being a divisional opponent know exactly what to expect from Barkley. They bottled up a pretty good Bengals ground attack to the tune of just 89 rushing yards on 25 carries last week. On the flip side, the Giants have been losing the battle in the trenches, allowing a whopping 5.0 yards per rush this season. Note that Dallas has reeled off six consecutive ATS wins over NFC East opponents, outscoring those opponents by an average margin of 22.2 points. The Cowboys are also 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games, outscoring the opposition by 6.5 points on average along the way. The Giants, meanwhile, have been outscored by 5.8 points on average in their last 10 games following a win. Take Dallas (10*). | |||||||
09-26-22 | Braves v. Nationals OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-0 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
N.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The 'under' cashed in all three games between these two teams last week but since then the Braves have reeled off three consecutive 'over' results in a series in Philadelphia. You would have to go back to September 16th to find the last time the Nationals posted an 'over', but I look for that to change tonight. Bryce Elder will get the start for the visiting Braves. He's been a different pitcher in his last three starts compared to four rocky outings back in April. With that being said, he still owns a 4.09 FIP and 1.33 WHIP at the big league level this season and here the Nationals will be seeing him for the second time in less than a week after scoring one run on four hits and two walks over 5 2/3 innings against him last week. Note that Elder allowed 1.2 home runs per nine innings at the AAA level this season but has gone three consecutive big league starts without giving up a single long ball. I'm not convinced that will continue. Cory Abbott will counter for Washington. He's been awful this season, posting a 6.09 FIP and 1.39 WHIP while allowing 2.1 home runs and 4.85 runs per nine innings. The Braves will be getting their second look at Abbott after plating four runs on six hits including a home run over four innings last week. Abbott didn't strike out a single batter while walking two in that contest. The Nationals bullpen is a concern as well as it has logged just shy of 33 innings over its last eight games. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-25-22 | Falcons +1 v. Seahawks | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 50 h 49 m | Show |
NFC Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Seattle at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. The Falcons enter this game 0-2 but have been competitive in both games, perhaps illustrating a tide-turning of sorts for this down-trodden franchise. After losing, but covering the spread, in a loss against the defending Super Bowl champion Rams in Los Angeles last Sunday, they'll be determined to earn a split on this road trip with this winnable date with the Seahawks. Seattle probably experienced the high point of its entire season back in Week 1 when it upset Russell Wilson and the Broncos on Monday Night Football. We successfully faded the Seahawks last Sunday as they didn't even put up a fight in a lopsided loss to the 49ers in Santa Clara. This is a mouth-watering matchup for the Falcons offense, which is looking for a breakout performance after running against two top-level defensive teams in the Saints and Rams over the last two weeks. The Seahawks are vulnerable all over the field on defense and that should open the door for a big afternoon for standout rookie WR Drake London and dare I say TE Kyle Pitts, who has been disappointing fantasy owners everywhere but carries a strong 'it's only a matter of time' narrative. On the flip side, the Falcons defense is nothing to write home about, but neither is the Seattle offense. Vulnerable at the back-end, Atlanta catches a break by facing Seahawks QB Geno Smith who simply hasn't shown the ability to throw his receivers open deep. I can't help but feel Pete Carroll will go back a run-first philosophy here after a far more pass-centric offensive gameplan than most expected through two weeks. I also can't help but feel it won't work as the Falcons have actually been stingy against the run despite game-script that would have indicated otherwise in Weeks 1 and 2. Take Atlanta (10*). | |||||||
09-25-22 | Bills v. Dolphins OVER 52.5 | Top | 19-21 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 43 m | Show |
Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Buffalo and Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday. Last year's two meetings between these teams were relatively low-scoring, lopsided affairs in favor of the Bills. While Buffalo has looked incredible through the first two weeks of the season, I do expect it to get its first test here with Miami coming in brimming with confidence following last week's come-from-behind victory in Baltimore. We won with the 'over' in both of these teams' games last week and I won't hesitate to go back to the well here. Buffalo knows how to play only one way on offense and that's fast. The Bills are well-positioned to pace this affair as well with WR Gabriel Davis likely to return and Stefon Diggs coming off an explosive performance against the Titans and likely to eat against Dolphins top corner Xavien Howard, who is nursing a groin injury. The Bills have injury concerns of their own on defense. Already down Tre'Davious White, they've got several key cogs banged-up and questionable to play this Sunday (although I do expect all of them to suit up, they won't be 100% healthy) in Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer and Jordan Phillips. Last week we saw Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel scheme up another masterful offensive gameplan to exploit the Ravens defensive weaknesses at the back-end (due to injury as well). He should be comfortable teeing up Tua Tagovailoa and the dynamic WR duo of Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill again in this one given the state of the Bills defense playing on a short week. Miami's ground game has been an afterthought through two weeks and it should remain that way here given the Bills stout nature defending the run (although the possible absence of Phillips would downgrade that run defense). I'll resist the temptation to go the contrarian route and stick with the 'over' with these two teams for one more week. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-25-22 | Chiefs v. Colts +5.5 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 47 h 38 m | Show |
Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Indianapolis plus the points over Kansas City at 1 pm et on Sunday. While the Colts have looked down-trodden through the first two weeks of the season, I'm willing to give them a pass to some extent as they finally get their home-opener against the Chiefs on Sunday. Indianapolis actually moved the football at will in its season-opening 20-20 tie in Houston. Of course, there's a chance that the Texans are a better team than most expected after they gave the Broncos everything they could handle in Denver last Sunday. Speaking of last Sunday, the Colts were crushed by a 24-0 score in Jacksonville (we won with the Jaguars in that game). That upset loss was somewhat predictable given the team's struggles in Jacksonville over the years. Here, I believe Indianapolis is much better-positioned as the 'hunter' rather than the 'hunted' at home against the 2-0 Chiefs. Keep in mind, Colts head coach Frank Reich schemed up a 19-13 victory at Arrowhead Stadium the last time these two teams met in 2019. On that occasion, the Colts were led by Jacoby Brissett at quarterback and Marlon Mack in the backfield. RB Nyheim Hines led the team in receiving on that night (he should play a key factor in Sunday's game as well). Similarly, Colts QB Matt Ryan last faced the Chiefs in December of 2020 and found considerable success, completing 27-of-35 passes for 300 yards and two touchdowns in a narrow 19-16 loss (playing for a 4-11 Falcons team at the time). Note that Ryan is likely to get some help after working with a severely undermanned wide receiving corps last Sunday with Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce both having practised all week. On the defensive side of the ball, the Colts are in desperate need of a boost and should have Shaq Leonard back in the fold after he also practised all week. It remains to be seen whether Leonard will be full go should he play but his mere presence would give the Colts an emotional lift at the very least. I've said little about the Chiefs. They're obviously playing well but you would have to go back to 2019 to find the last time they opened a season winning their first two road games by more than a field goal, which they're being asked to do given the pointspread this week. Here, we'll note that the Colts are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games as a home underdog of between 3.5 and 7 points, outscored by just 0.3 points on average in that situation. They've also gone 10-2 ATS when coming off a division game over the last 2+ seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 7.1 points in that spot. Take Indianapolis (10*). | |||||||
09-24-22 | Connecticut v. NC State UNDER 50 | 10-41 | Loss | -110 | 128 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Connecticut and N.C. State at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'over' in Connecticut's 59-0 drubbing at the hands of Michigan in the Big House last Saturday. Here, I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'under' as the Huskies travel to Raleigh to face N.C. State. UConn's only hope of staying even remotely competitive in this game is by running the football with the backfield tandem of Victor Rosa and Nathan Carter in an effort to effectively shorten the game. It couldn't gain any sort of traction in that department against Michigan - in fact, QB Zion Turner was the team's leading rusher in that contest with just 42 yards. Still, the game reached 'only' 49 points as the Huskies were shut out. N.C. State exploded offensively against an overmatched FCS opponent in Charleston Southern two weeks ago but aside from that, hasn't been nearly as explosive as Michigan, for example. Last week against Texas Tech, N.C. State didn't reach the end zone until nearly five minutes into the second quarter and from there scored just one more offensive touchdown. On the flip side, the Wolfpack held a powerful Texas Tech offense out of the end zone until the final minute of the first half. This is a 'win and move on' type of spot for N.C. State as it opens its ACC schedule with a tough road date against Clemson next Saturday. While Michigan was able to topple the total all on its own last Saturday, I don't expect the Wolfpack to do the same here. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
09-24-22 | Charlotte v. South Carolina -21.5 | 20-56 | Win | 100 | 28 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on South Carolina minus the points over Charlotte at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. This is a brutal spot for Charlotte off a draining 42-41 win over Georgia State (a Georgia State squad that looked absolutely terrible in a similar spot, albeit on a shorter week, against Coastal Carolina on Thursday) last Saturday. The 49ers don't play a lick of defense, having been lit up for 41+ points in all four games to date this season and now make the trip to face a South Carolina squad that will be looking to dummy someone after dropping consecutive blowout decisions against powerful Arkansas and Georgia squads. Keep in mind, these two teams have a common opponent this season as the Gamecocks boat-raced Georgia State by a 35-14 score back in Week 1 while the 49ers needed everything they had in the tank to prevail by a single point last week. South Carolina has had a major problem stopping the run this season but Charlotte wouldn't seem to pose a serious threat in that regard. The 49ers did run for 130+ yards back in Week 1 against FCS squad William & Mary but they needed 37 attempts to get there. This one gets away from the visiting Niners. Take South Carolina (8*). | |||||||
09-24-22 | Mariners -1.5 v. Royals | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle -1.5 runs over Kansas City at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. The Royals took the opener of this series last night, their fourth consecutive win. The Mariners have been stumbling lately but we've picked our spots wisely backing them and we'll do so again here with Logan Gilbert on the mound against Kris Bubic. Gilbert is in terrific form, having allowed just two earned runs over his last four starts, covering a span of 23 innings. The Mariners last three victories with Gilbert starting have come by seven, three and eight-run margins. It's been a much different story for Kris Bubic of the Royals. He has allowed 10 earned runs over his last two outings. He checks in with an 8.36 ERA and 2.00 WHIP over his last three starts. The Royals have dropped his last seven starts with all seven of those losses coming by 2+ runs and the last three by three runs or more. Take Seattle -1.5 runs (8*). | |||||||
09-24-22 | Middle Tennessee State +25.5 v. Miami-FL | 45-31 | Win | 100 | 102 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Middle Tennessee State plus the points over Miami at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I think this is a sneaky-tough spot for Miami as it returns home licking its wounds following a 17-9 loss against Texas A&M to host Middle Tennessee State. The Blue Raiders season got start on the wrong foot as they were routed 44-7 on the road against first-year FBS upstart James Madison. MTSU's offense couldn't stay on the field, going three-and-out on its first five drives and its young defense quickly wore down as a result, with the floodgates opening early. We've seen both units settle down over the last two games as the Blue Raiders delivered consecutive lopsided wins over Colorado State and FCS squad Tennessee State. I like some of the pieces MTSU has in place offensively with QB Chase Cunningham back healthy, not to mention a solid wide receiving corps and what appears to be a capable running back in Frank Peasant. Defensively, there are holes to fill but the Blue Raiders can ratchet up the pressure up front and I'm not convinced that Miami can take advantage of its weaknesses in the secondary. MTSU had a miserable time containing James Madison dual-threat QB Todd Centeio but it will deal with a true pocket-passer in Tyler Van Dyke this week. Albeit in a tough matchup against an angry Texas A&M defense, Van Dyke didn't look the same without his early season go-to guy WR Xavier Restrepo last week. Restrepo is sidelined indefinitely with a foot injury. Off the emotional primetime loss to A&M and with ACC play getting rolling with a date against currently undefeated North Carolina next week, I see this as a 'win and move on' type of spot for the Hurricanes as they look to effectively shorten the game and avoid any more key injuries. Take Middle Tennessee State (8*). | |||||||
09-24-22 | UMass v. Temple -8 | 0-28 | Win | 100 | 101 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Temple minus the points over UMass at 2 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'under' in Temple's ugly 16-14 home loss against Rutgers last Saturday. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and lay the points with the Owls as they stay home for a winnable matchup against UMass. Temple is 1-2 to start the season but can take some positives away from its last two games, particularly on the defensive side of the football. Over their last five quarters of football, the Owls have yielded just one offensive touchdown, that coming early in last week's game against Rutgers. Meanwhile, we've at least seen the Owls show some signs of consistency on offense with QB E.J. Warner taking over. He's completed 33-of-50 passes for 388 yards, three touchdowns and just one interception since relieving an injured (and ineffective) D'Wan Mathis. Believe it or not, this is a smash spot for the Temple offense against a UMass squad that has given up points at will against anyone with a pulse this season. Back in Week 1, the Minutemen allowed three touchdowns in the game's first 25 minutes against a mediocre Tulane offense. They were even worse in their next game, yielding six touchdowns in the first 35 minutes against Toledo. They earned a reprieve against FCS squad Stony Brook last week and performed admirably but I expect them to come back to Earth again here, even against a struggling Temple offense. This is obviously a key spot for Temple as it will play its next two games on the road against Memphis and UCF before returning home for no gimme against Tulsa. While a Bowl appearance probably isn't in the cards this year, the Owls can at least keep hope alive with a victory this week. Given the state of the UMass offense - note that last week the Minutemen scored a touchdown in the game's first five minutes against Stony Brook but their offense never reached the end zone again the rest of the way. Prior to that they managed only two offensive touchdowns in their first two games - I'm confident Temple can score enough offensively and let its defense take care of the rest in what should be a lopsided, albeit likely low-scoring result. Take Temple (8*). | |||||||
09-24-22 | Buffalo +4.5 v. Eastern Michigan | Top | 50-31 | Win | 100 | 122 h 9 m | Show |
MAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Buffalo plus the points over Eastern Michigan at 12 noon et on Saturday. We won with Buffalo plus the points in its tough road loss against Coastal Carolina last Saturday as it fell to 0-3 on the season. The Bulls have certainly faced a tough early schedule with games against Maryland and aforementioned CCU on the road and Holy Cross, a top FCS squad, at home. Here, I look for the Bulls to give Eastern Michigan all it can handle, noting that the Eagles are coming off their biggest victory in years, 30-21 on the road against Arizona State last Saturday (we cashed our free play on the 'under' in that game). EMU pulled off that stunning upset victory thanks to 259 rushing yards from RB Samson Evans. I'm chalking that up as an outlier performance as Evans had been held to just 108 yards on 25 carries in the first two games this season. The strength of the Bulls defense is at the linebacker position and I'm confident they can keep Evans under wraps on Saturday. Note that EMU lost QB Taylor Powell to a shoulder injury in last Saturday's win. He's questionable to play this week. If he can't go, it will be Austin Smith under center. He's more of a dual-threat than Powell but I believe Buffalo matches up better against that type of quarterback with their athleticism on defense. Bulls QB Cole Snyder has been under duress for much of the season so far but has held up relatively well. Note that EMU hasn't shown any semblance of a pass rush with just one sack through three games. In a game that I feel will be played closer to the vest than expected (I feel the posted total has been set too high as well), I'll grab all the points I can get with the underdog Bulls. Take Buffalo (10*). | |||||||
09-24-22 | Central Michigan v. Penn State UNDER 61 | 14-33 | Win | 100 | 122 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Central Michigan and Penn State at 12 noon et on Saturday. We missed with the 'under' in Central Michigan's wild season-opening 58-44 loss at Oklahoma State but I did figure at that time that we would go back to the well with another 'under' play involving the Chippewas at some point. This looks like the right spot as the Chips head back on the road to face an undefeated Penn State squad that is coming off a key blowout win at Auburn last week. It generally takes two teams to topple a total in this range and I'm not convinced the Chips will do their part in this spot. Central Michigan did roll to a 41-0 win over FCS squad Bucknell last week but it's worth noting that it didn't reach the end zone until there were less than five minutes remaining in the first half in that game. They 'only' led 20-0 through three quarters before Bucknell eventually wore down defensively. I certainly don't expect CMU to wear down an elite Penn State defense here. Note that two games back, CMU took 10 minutes to score a touchdown against South Alabama and then didn't reach the end zone again until more than six minutes into the third quarter. The Chips will simply be looking to possess the football for extended stretches and effectively shorten this game to give themselves any sort of chance after that ugly loss against a similarly tough opponent, Oklahoma State, earlier this month. Penn State has been better than advertised offensively through three games although I do think last week's 41-12 result was a little deceiving (we missed with the 'under' in that game). The Nittany Lions scored just two first half touchdowns in that game, including one less than two minutes before halftime. It was only in the second half where Auburn had a number of defensive miscues and lacked concentration and execution in yielding 27 Nittany Lions points. Here, I expect to see Penn State 'manage' this game (note that in a previous game against another MAC opponent, Ohio, the Nittany Lions ceased scoring from a minute or so into the fourth quarter on in a 46-10 victory). Penn State's Big Ten schedule picks back up again next week and I'm sure it would like to make this tune-up contest as uneventful as possible. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
09-24-22 | Maryland v. Michigan UNDER 63 | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 99 h 56 m | Show |
Big Ten Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Maryland and Michigan at 12 noon et on Saturday. We won with the 'over' in Michigan's 59-0 rout of an overmatched Connecticut squad last Saturday. Of course, we needed all 59 points from the Wolverines to get there. I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'under' as Michigan gets its first true test of the season against Maryland on Saturday at the Big House. Maryland is off to a 3-0 start following last week's fourth quarter rally against a quality SMU squad. The Terps offense has been humming along, scoring 31, 56 and 34 points through its first three games. We saw a similar story unfold last year with Maryland running up the score against the opponents it should but struggling when the competition stiffened up. Michigan may not have the flashy defense of 2021 with Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo having moved on to the NFL, but there's a chance this Wolverines 'D' could be even better. While they've yet to face a true test, I've come away impressed by the way they've completely stifled their first three opponents. In fact they've yet to allow a single first half point with the only two opponents that managed to score on them doing so long after the outcome was already decided. Offensively, the Wolverines, like the Terps, have benefited from facing three relatively weak defensive opponents. I can't help but feel that this Michigan offense, under the guidance of first-year starting QB J.J. McCarthy, is built to methodically drive down the field and wear down opposing defenses with a steady mix of run and pass rather than come up with a ton of splash plays. Note that the Terps didn't allow a touchdown until the first minute of the second quarter against a terrific SMU offense last week. After giving up a touchdown with less than seven minutes remaining in the third quarter, putting it behind 27-20, Maryland posted a shutout the rest of the way, scoring a pair of touchdowns of its own to secure the 34-27 victory over the Mustangs. Prior to that, the Terps had allowed four touchdowns through their first two games although you can take three of those with a grain of salt as they came in a 'defense-optional' rout of Charlotte, which plays as loose as any team in FBS. Michigan crushed Maryland by a 59-18 score in last year's matchup (note that game saw a closing total of 58 so we're dealing with a considerable adjustment here) so you can be sure the Terps gameplan here will involve possessing the football for extended stretches in an effort to effectively shorten the game and limit Michigan's opportunities on offense. On the flip side, I think we'll see Maryland play it fairly safe defensively, allowing Michigan to churn out long scoring drives that ultimately eat the clock and help our cause with the 'under'. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-23-22 | Nevada v. Air Force -24 | Top | 20-48 | Win | 100 | 107 h 41 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Air Force minus the points over Nevada at 8 pm et on Friday. We won fading Air Force last Friday night as the Falcons lost outright as a double-digit favorite in a tough setting in Laramie, Wyoming. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back Air Force (we won with the Falcons just two games back against Colorado) as it returns to Colorado Springs to host a disjointed Nevada squad. The Wolf Pack are an even 2-2 to start the season but their outlook is by no means promising. We won with the 'under' in their season-opening 23-12 win on the road against a bad New Mexico State squad in Week 0 but even in that victory there was reason for concern. Nevada didn't score until nearly five minutes into the second quarter and after reaching the end zone with less than a minute remaining in the first half, it failed to record another touchdown in the game's final 30 minutes. After routing a weak Texas State squad the next week, the Wolf Pack got absolutely throttled by FCS squad Incarnate Word 55-41. That final score was actually flattering for the Wolf Pack as Incarnate Word led 55-27 before allowing a couple of late scores. Shane Illingworth took over at quarterback against Iowa last Saturday and proceeded to complete just 14-of-28 passes for 82 yards. Without a dominant offensive line or ground attack, there's just little for this Wolf Pack offense to hang its hat on nearly a month into the season. Defensively, Nevada allowed a punchless Iowa attack to score a pair of first quarter touchdowns last week and again, we learned a lot about this unit in that game against Incarnate Word (the Cardinals scored four offensive touchdowns in the game's first 36 minutes). Air Force will obviously be in a foul mood off last week's defeat and the Falcons are well-positioned to bounce back here at home where they're 2-0 on the campaign, registering 48-17 and 41-10 victories. The last time we saw them here they held Colorado off the scoreboard until just over four minutes into the second quarter and then didn't allow another touchdown the rest of the way. Credit Wyoming's defense for bottling up the Falcons option-based offense last week but I don't expect Nevada to do the same, noting that AFA scored 41 points in a wild victory over the Wolf Pack last November. Take Air Force (10*). | |||||||
09-23-22 | Hamilton v. Montreal UNDER 52.5 | Top | 16-23 | Win | 100 | 33 h 17 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Hamilton and Montreal at 7:30 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'over' the last time these two teams met back on August 20th. We're dealing with a considerably higher posted total this time around. I believe it will prove too high. The Tiger-Cats are fresh off a wild 48-31 upset win over the Blue Bombers last week. Chalk up that offensive explosion as an anomaly as they had been held to 25 points or less in eight of their last 10 games previously and just 56 points combined over their last three contests. The Alouettes delivered their best defensive performance of the season last time out, posting a 31-10 victory over the B.C. Lions before their bye week. It's important to note that the Ti-Cats win last week was boosted by three Winnipeg turnovers, noting that Hamilton actually gained 'only' 97 yards rushing and 327 yards passing despite an ultra-efficient 25-of-32 game through the air. Hamilton has now gone four straight games without rushing for 100+ yards as a team. One-dimensional offenses don't tend to enjoy sustained success in the CFL. Speaking of one-dimensional, the Als aerial attack has been sputtering as they've completed 22 or fewer passes while throwing for 256 yards or less in four of their last five contests. Noting that the Ti-Cats have allowed completions on just 64-of-100 passes while forcing six turnovers over the last three games, Montreal will probably be looking to stay run-centric here. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 147-112 with the Ti-Cats seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of 51.1 points. Better still, the 'under' is a perfect 7-0 the last seven times Hamilton has played on the road following a non-division game, which is also the situation here, leading to an average total of only 36.5 points. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-23-22 | Cubs v. Pirates OVER 8 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
N.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Pittsburgh at 6:35 pm et on Friday. We saw a low-scoring game to open this series last night as the Cubs delivered their third straight victory while handing the Pirates their seventh consecutive defeat. Here, I'm anticipating a higher-scoring contest as dictated by the poor starting pitching matchup. The book is already out on Cubs rookie Javier Assad and it's not a good one. Assad has been touched up for nine earned runs on 12 hits and eight walks, not to mention three home runs over his last three starts, covering a span of just 13 1/3 innings. While the Pirates bats have been quiet, we know they're capable of outlier performances as they just hung eight runs on the Yankees three nights ago. Bryse Wilson gets another turn in the Buccos rotation out of necessity only. He's been awful this year, posting a 6.72 ERA and 1.57 WHIP. Over his last three outings, those numbers rise to 7.67 and 1.67, respectively. To make matters worse, the Cubs will be seeing Wilson for the third time this season having already plated six earned runs in nine innings against him. They also faced him twice last season, scoring six earned runs in eight innings. You get the picture. Even if the starters do manage to pull rabbits out of their hat in this one, we have the potential for late runs with a Pirates bullpen that has recorded a collective 9.00 ERA and 2.09 WHIP over the last seven games and a Cubs 'pen that has posted a 4.54 ERA and 1.40 WHIP with 13 blown saves on the road this season. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-23-22 | Montenegro v. Bosnia & Herzegovina UNDER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 51 m | Show |
Nations League Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Bosnia & Herzegovina and Montenegro at 2:45 pm et on Friday. I really like the way this one sets up as a tightly-contested, relatively low-scoring affair as the top two teams in League B, Group 3 do battle in Zenica on Friday. Through four matches, these are the only two squads in the group to have posted positive goal differentials. Note that we saw Bosnia and Montenegro match up back in early June, resulting in a 1-1 draw. Note that Bosnia enters this match having gone undefeated across its last five contests and will of course have the benefit of hosting this one. More importantly, it has seen seven of its last eight matches stay 'under' 2.5 total goals. It's a similar story for Montenegro as four of its last five contests have totalled two goals or less. Dzeko is certainly a big-time scoring threat up front for Bosnia but I like the setup of the Montenegro defense with Vucacic and Vesovic in excellent form and goalkeeper Milan Mijatovic having recorded a clean sheet in his most recent international match, a 3-0 win in earlier Nations League play against Romania. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-22-22 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -1.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Arizona at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. The D'Backs have surprisingly come back with consecutive wins over the Dodgers after opening the series with two straight losses. Here, I look for Los Angeles to answer back in the finale of an extended five-game set. To say that Dodgers starter Julio Urias has owned the D'Backs over the course of his career would be an understatement. He has posted a sparkling 1.59 ERA and 0.78 WHIP in seven outings against them with the Dodgers going 6-1 in those games. All six of those victories have come by 2+ runs. D'Backs starter Zac Gallen actually outdueled Urias in a previous matchup back in late April this season. Gallen didn't allow a run over six innings while Urias gave up a solo home run in an eventual 3-1 Arizona win. I look for Urias and the Dodgers to get an ounce of revenge here, noting that Gallen will be starting on four days' rest after allowing five earned runs over his last two starts, covering a span of 11 1/3 innings. While the D'Backs bullpen has held up reasonably well over the last couple of nights, it still entered last night's contest having converted just 17 saves while blowing 13 on the road this season, posting a collective 4.79 ERA and 1.40 WHIP along the way. The Los Angeles relief corps entered last night's game having logged a 3.39 ERA and 1.11 WHIP while making good on 23 saves and blowing only nine at home this season. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (8*). | |||||||
09-22-22 | Steelers v. Browns -4.5 | Top | 17-29 | Win | 100 | 31 h 10 m | Show |
TNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland first half minus the points over Pittsburgh at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. The Browns are coming off an absolutely gut-wrenching home loss to the Jets in a game they led by two touchdowns with just two minutes remaining. It took an incredible series of events for New York to overcome that late deficit and steal a road win. I think the best thing for the Browns is to get right back on the field on a short week, and I'm confident backing them in the first half now that we know Joel Bitonio, Myles Garrett and Jack Conklin are all expected to play (as of Wednesday). The Steelers have looked unimpressive and it's only a matter of time before QB Mitchell Trubisky is supplanted by rookie Kenny Pickett. In fact, I believe the move is probably coming sooner rather than later, another reason why I prefer to back the Browns in the first half only in this one. Should things go south early on there's always the possibility (albeit small given Mike Tomlin's track record) that Pickett enters this game at some point and gives Pittsburgh a boost. The Steelers want to run Najee Harris as the focal point of their offense but he's dealing with multiple injuries and that doesn't bode well as he plays on a short week. While the presence of Browns pressure magnet QB Jacoby Brissett does give me some pause, I expect the Browns to go run-heavy as usual and they should be able to bully the Steelers in the trenches on both sides of the football. Here, we'll note that the Steelers are just 3-11 ATS in the first half when playing on six days or less of rest over the last two seasons, outscored by 6.9 points on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Browns are 12-2 ATS in the first half in their last 14 Thursday games, outscoring opponents by 3.8 points on average. Take Cleveland first half (10*). | |||||||
09-22-22 | Coastal Carolina v. Georgia State UNDER 64 | Top | 41-24 | Loss | -110 | 83 h 41 m | Show |
Sun Belt Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Coastal Carolina and Georgia State at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams are coming off wild games last Saturday with Coastal Carolina recording a 38-26 victory over Buffalo (we won with Buffalo plus the points) and Georgia State falling by a 42-41 score against Charlotte. Last year we saw a closing total of 53 points for this same matchup but the game ended up reaching a whopping 82 points in a Georgia State upset victory. So here we're dealing with a considerably higher total - I believe it will prove to be too high. I can't imagine either team is all that interested in getting involved in another track meet here, playing on a short week off such draining contests just five days previous. Note that while Coastal Carolina did allow 26 points against Buffalo, it actually held the Bulls out of the end zone until the final minute of the first half and didn't give up another touchdown until there were less than six minutes left in the fourth quarter. The final score in that contest was ultimately inflated by a Buffalo defensive breakdown with just over three minutes remaining as Coastal Carolina was just trying to get a couple of first downs and burn out the clock (the Chanticleers scored a 59-yard touchdown). Prior to that contest, Coastal Carolina held FCS squad Gardner-Webb out of the end zone for the first 27 minutes and in its season-opener limited a tough Army offense to 28 points in a game where a few defensive breakdowns (to be expected facing Army's triple-option in Week 1) led to three long touchdowns. The Chanticleers enter this game on a short week with a trio of running backs banged-up. To effectively shorten this game would certainly work in their favor knowing just how explosive the Georgia State offense can be. The Panthers are still winless through three games but they've been competitive in their last two contests against North Carolina and Charlotte. After jumping ahead early in last week's game against Charlotte, the Panthers had a fumble returned for a touchdown which really turned the tide in the game, which ultimately turned into a shootout (to be expected against the 49ers' explosive offense and sieve-like defense). Two games back, the Georgia State offense couldn't stay on the field in the first half, leaving the defense gassed against a high-octane North Carolina offense. The Panthers did go a 23-minute stretch without allowing a touchdown in that contest. In their season-opener, they limited South Carolina to only two offensive touchdowns in a game that was scoreless until the second minute of the second quarter. My point being, the Panthers defense is better than it has showed on the scoreboard through three games and will certainly be amped up to face former teammate, WR Sam Pinckney who transferred to Coastal Carolina after last season. Keep in mind, this is an experienced Panthers defense (with seven returning starters) that held six of eight Sun Belt Conference opponents to 21 points or less last season. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-22-22 | Moldova v. Latvia -1 | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Latvia -1 goal over Moldova at 12 noon et on Thursday. Latvia sits atop the Group 1 standings, five points ahead of second-place Moldova, which happens to be its opponent today. Credit Moldova for taking care of business against the group's weaker teams, Liechtenstein and Andorra but there's little to glean from its 2-0-1 mark in those three contests. Latvia enters this contest having reeled off victories in each of its last five games, going undefeated across its last eight overall. It has also recorded three straight wins in this series against Moldova. While the Latvians are particularly stout at the back-end with wing defenders Roberts Savalnieks and Raivis Jurkovskis in terrific form, the Moldovans have issues in that department. Goalkeeper Dorian Railean has been less than impressive, particularly in the squad's last two matches, including a 4-2 home defeat against Latvia. Defenders Bolohan and Craciun are exploitable as well. In a match that projects to be relatively high-scoring, I'm confident laying a goal with the tougher defensive side with home field being an added bonus. Take Latvia -1 goal (8*). | |||||||
09-21-22 | Giants v. Rockies +124 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
N.L. Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Colorado over San Francisco at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Giants have taken the first two games in this series but I look for the Rockies to answer back on Wednesday. Logan Webb carries a reputation as a front-of-the-rotation starter for San Francisco but he's looked anything but the part lately, lasting six innings or more only twice in his last six starts, failing to make it through the fifth inning in three of those outings. The Rockies have already seen him (and beat him) twice this season, scoring five earned runs on 11 hits in 12 2/3 innings. Note that Webb has recorded more than six strikeouts just once in eight career starts against Colorado. German Marquez will take the ball for the Rockies. He's faced San Francisco once this season, holding it to three earned runs over six innings in a 5-3 win as a +225 underdog back on June 7th. For as poorly as the veteran right-hander has pitched at times this season, the Rockies bats do tend to come alive for him, noting that they've won nine of his 15 home outings here in 2022. Marquez actually brings his best form of the season into this start having lasted seven innings and allowed two earned runs or less in three of his last four trips to the hill. While the Giants are technically still alive in the N.L. Wild Card race, the reality is they're not going to make it as they sit 9.5 games back of the third and final spot. Despite losing the first two games in this series, the Rockies have been battling, going 7-5 over their last 12 contests. Take Colorado (10*). | |||||||
09-21-22 | Angels v. Rangers OVER 8.5 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Texas at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a relatively low-scoring game to open this series last night but I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday. Angels spot starter Tucker Davidson probably isn't long for a big league rotation. He wasn't able to stick with the Braves organization and has struggled mightily since joining the Angels, posting a 5.99 FIP and 1.78 WHIP while allowing just shy of 7.0 runs per nine innings in 42 2/3 innings of work this season. The Rangers will counter with a struggling pitcher of their own in Dane Dunning. He checks in having allowed 18 earned runs over his last five starts, covering a span of 24 1/3 innings. Dunning owns a 4.49 FIP and 1.46 WHIP while yielding north of 4.7 runs per nine innings this season. Here, Dunning will be facing the Angels for the fifth time this season. Los Angeles should be happy to see him noting that he owns a career 5.75 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in seven career starts in this series. Neither bullpen is anything to write home about and with both starters likely to make early exits, the opportunity should be there for plenty of tack-on runs late. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
09-21-22 | Ukraine v. Scotland | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 31 h 0 m | Show |
Nations League Game of the Month. My selection is on Ukraine pk over Scotland at 2:45 pm et on Wednesday. While things are anything but normal back home, many Ukrainian players have at least gained some return to 'normalcy' with the return of league play and now they have the opportunity to once again play for their country in another key Nations League fixture on Wednesday in Glasgow. Ukraine has gone undefeated across its last three matches since suffering a bitter 1-0 defeat against Wales to miss out on World Cup qualification. Note that it has managed to strike first in seven of its last nine matches across all competitions and now faces a Scottish side that has played far too loose with four of its last five matches going 'over' 2.5 total goals. I say it has played too loose as it simply doesn't have the offensive firepower to consistently prevail in relatively high-scoring affairs. I like Ukraine's move to Andriy Lunin between the sticks. He is a Real Madrid man even if he hasn't had much opportunity with the Spanish side to this point. No Zinchenko for Ukraine on Wednesday but it still boasts a first class side with Yaremchuk, Yarmolenko and Mudryk, who has performed well for Shakhtar Donetsk recently. While Scotland is always a tough out in Glasgow, I do expect Ukraine to rise to the occasion here, noting that it currently sits just a single point ahead of the Scots atop the Group 1 standings with a return match on deck in Krakow. Take Ukraine pk (10*). | |||||||
09-20-22 | Astros v. Rays OVER 6.5 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
A.L. Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Tampa Bay at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a predictably low-scoring game between these two teams to open this series last night as two underrated starters went head-to-head in Luis Garcia and Drew Rasmussen. Here, I think the pendulum swings the other way as we have perhaps two overrated (I use that term in a relative sense) starters in Cristian Javier and Shane McClanahan taking the hill. Note that we haven't seen consecutive meetings between these two teams stay 'under' seven total runs since back in the 2020 postseason. Javier enters this start after tossing six shutout innings last time out but that performance came against the light-hitting Tigers. Prior to that he had given up a home run in three straight starts, walking six in 16 1/3 innings over that stretch. The Rays saw Javier once previously, that coming last season as they chased him after scoring three earned runs in five innings in a 5-4 victory. McClanahan hasn't allowed an earned run in his last two starts - the first time he's accomplished that feat all season. I'm not convinced he's had his best stuff lately, noting that he hasn't recorded double-digit strikeouts in a start since way back on July 2nd after doing so four times in a 12-start stretch at that time. Note that six of McClanahan's last seven starts have gone 'over' 6.5 total runs. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-19-22 | Vikings v. Eagles -2 | Top | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 23 h 60 m | Show |
MNF Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Minnesota at 8:30 pm et on Monday. The Vikings blew out the perennial NFC North front-running Packers last week while the Eagles held on for a three-point victory over the Lions in a game that wasn't nearly as close as the final score indicated. While many are high on the Vikings and believe they can contend for an NFC North title this season, I'm not of that same opinion. Yes, I like some of the pieces they have in place, namely RB Dalvin Cook and WR Justin Jefferson but this is a team that has its share of flaws, particularly on the defensive side of the football. The Eagles mean business this year - that was evident when they went out and got WR A.J. Brown and even CB C.J. Gardner-Johnson just prior to start of the season. QB Jalen Hurts has already shown tremendous chemistry with Brown. I'm also anticipating a jump in production in second-year wideout DeVonta Smith this year. Then you have underrated RB Miles Sanders running behind one of the league's best offensive lines. Needless to say, the Eagles offense should be a handful for the Vikings on Monday. While Justin Jefferson is an elite, arguably unstoppable wide receiver, the Eagles do have plenty of bodies to throw at him. With veteran Adam Thielen on the decline, Jefferson is going to continue to get considerable attention from opposing defenses. I'm not convinced the Vikings are well-suited to play from behind, which I expect them to be doing for much of Monday's contest. Note that the Eagles have outscored opponents by an average margin of 6.0 points the last 68 times they've played at home after scoring 30+ points in a game, as is the case here. Take Philadelphia (10*). | |||||||
09-19-22 | Titans v. Bills OVER 47.5 | Top | 7-41 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
AFC Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and Buffalo at 7:15 pm et on Monday. We missed with the 'over' in the Bills season-opening blowout win over the Rams in Week 1. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as we're dealing with a lower posted total, albeit against a weaker offensive opponent than they saw last week (the Titans can't perform much worse offensively than the Rams did in the opener). I can't help but feel that the Bills are bound to get involved in some shootouts until they get healthier on defense. Already without CB Tre'Davious White they'll be missing DT Ed Oliver and possibly DT Tim Settle as well on Monday with the latter two opening the door for a big game for Titans RB Derrick Henry. QB Ryan Tannehill may not appear to have many weapons at his disposal on paper but I liked what I saw from rookie WR Treylon Burks last week and guys like Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Robert Woods are capable wideouts as well. There's little I need to say that hasn't already been said about the Bills offense. They're one of the elite units in the league and will catch the Titans missing a couple of key cogs defensively with CB Kristian Fulton and DT Da'Shawn Hand forced to miss time. The Bills do have their own injury concern on offense with WR Gabriel Davis listed as questionable after suffering an ankle injury in practice. Even if he can't go, I still expect the Bills to go off against a very beatable Titans defense. Note that the 'over' is 18-7 with the Bills coming off a win over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 53.6 points in that situation. The 'over' has also cashed in nine of Buffalo's last 11 games after allowing 14 points or less in its previous contest. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-19-22 | Mariners -1.5 v. Angels | Top | 9-1 | Win | 120 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
A.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle -1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Monday. The Mariners have inexplicably dropped the first three games of this series and while the Angels would like nothing better than to play spoiler against their division rivals in Monday afternoon's series-finale, I expect Seattle to have other ideas. The Mariners have the right pitcher on the mound to stem the tide in Logan Gilbert. He's arguably been their best starter all season, checking in with a 3.46 FIP and 1.21 WHIP while holding opponents to just under 3.5 runs per nine innings. Note that the Mariners are 4-1 in Gilbert's five career outings against the Angels with three of those wins coming by at least two runs. Jose Suarez will counter for Los Angeles. He owns a 4.02 FIP and 1.28 WHIP while yielding north of 3.9 runs per nine innings. The Mariners chased him after 5 1/3 innings in an 8-2 win here in Anaheim back on August 16th. While things have gone well for the Angels in this series, their bullpen still entered yesterday's action sporting a 6.29 ERA and 1.60 WHIP over the last seven games. The Mariners 'pen went into Sunday's contest with a 3.56 ERA and 1.17 WHIP with 20 saves converted and only six blown on the road this season. Take Seattle -1.5 runs (10*). | |||||||
09-18-22 | Bears v. Packers -10 | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 30 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Green Bay minus the points over Chicago at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. The Packers go from a nightmarish opening week matchup with the Vikings in Minnesota to a favorable home date with the rebuilding Bears on Sunday night in Week 2. I'm confident we'll see Green Bay right the ship with a convincing win on Sunday night. Take Chicago's opening week victory over the 49ers in torrential rain and awful field conditions with a grain of salt. Yes, the Bears deserve credit for staging the upset but weather was the great equalizer. Here, Chicago won't be so fortunate. Green Bay is expected to have RT Elgton Jenkins and possibly WR Allen Lazard back for this game - both were obviously sorely missed in Minnesota last week. This is a dream bounce-back spot for the Packers dynamic backfield tandem of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon as they run right at what projects as a much weaker Bears defensive front than we've seen in recent seasons. It's the Packers defense that has me most confident about this matchup as they should feast on a woeful Bears offensive line that was effectively hidden by last week's poor weather conditions. Especially as Chicago projects to be playing from behind for much of this game, Green Bay's defense should be able to pin back its ears and tee off on Justin Fields for four quarters. Take Green Bay (8*). | |||||||
09-18-22 | Seahawks v. 49ers -9 | Top | 7-27 | Win | 100 | 25 h 28 m | Show |
NFC West Game of the Year. My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Seattle at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. This is a smash spot for the 49ers as they return home following last week's ugly loss in Chicago to host the Seahawks, playing on a short week following Monday's emotionally-thrilling but draining win over Russell Wilson and the Broncos. Seattle victory on Monday had more to do with Denver miscues than anything else. Credit the Seahawks to getting off to a strong start in that game, jumping ahead 7-0 on their first drive and never really looking back from there. This game figures to feature a much different game script as the 49ers should be able to impose their will on both sides of the football. Trey Lance critics have been out in full force this week. It's unfair really as few quarterbacks would have been able to find much success in last Sunday's miserable weather (and field) conditions in Chicago. I anticipate Lance looking much more comfortable back at home this Sunday and with a strong performance should stave off calls for Jimmy G for at least one more week. We're always looking to fade teams off emotional highs early in the season and that's certainly the case with the Seahawks - a team that likely experienced their 'Super Bowl' on Monday night. Expect Geno Smith to be brought back to Earth by the 49ers vaunted defensive front at Levi's Stadium on Sunday afternoon, noting that the 49ers are 23-7 ATS the last 30 times they've come off an outright loss as a road favorite, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 13.8 points in that situation. Take San Francisco (10*). | |||||||
09-18-22 | Falcons v. Rams -10 | 27-31 | Loss | -109 | 25 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Atlanta at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. The Rams couldn't have looked any worse in their season-opening blowout loss at the hands of the Bills. Now they've had a long week to prepare for a much more favorable matchup against the Falcons on Sunday afternoon. Atlanta was ultra-competitive but fell just short in its opener against the division-rival Saints last Sunday. It seems that the Falcons still haven't figured out a way to consistently utilize TE Kyle Pitts to his full potential. Until they do, I consider them a fade as they have few other offensive pieces capable of keeping opposing defensive coordinators up at night. Yes, jack-of-all-trades RB Cordarelle Patterson had another productive performance last Sunday but it was all for not in a loss. I expect QB Marcus Mariota to be under duress all afternoon long on Sunday and that should lead to plenty of mistakes and potentially turnovers. The Rams offense is far better than it showed against the Bills smothering zone scheme in Week 1. There's talk that QB Matt Stafford isn't 100% healthy but that had little to do with the ugly performance against the Bills. I'm confident we'll see Stafford and the Rams explosive offensive bounce back here. Note that the Saints got highly-productive performances from their WR duo of Jarvis Landry and Michael Thomas against the Falcons defense last Sunday in Atlanta and I expect more of the same from the Rams WR combination of Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson here. Take Los Angeles (8*). | |||||||
09-18-22 | Colts v. Jaguars +3 | Top | 0-24 | Win | 100 | 22 h 4 m | Show |
My selection is on Jacksonville plus the points over Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Colts are in tough due to injuries on Sunday afternoon as they'll be without Shaquille Leonard and Michael Pittman Jr., among others. This was already going to be a tough spot for Indianapolis as it comes off a highly-disappointing tie on the road against Houston last Sunday. The Jags didn't look great in a season-opening loss in Washington but I do think we'll see gradual improvement from them on both sides of the football under new head coach Doug Pederson. Here, in their home opener there's reason for optimism as they face a depleted Colts squad that is ripe for the picking in Week 2. Already severely limited with his supporting cast, the absence of Pittman looms large over the Colts offense led by Matt Ryan. Yes, Jonathan Taylor is capable of shouldering even more of the load but you can be sure the Jags will be stacking the box to bottle him up. Taylor is a much better running back playing from ahead than behind (as are most backs) and I expect that to be evident on Sunday afternoon. Take Jacksonville (8*). | |||||||
09-18-22 | Patriots -2.5 v. Steelers | Top | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 22 h 32 m | Show |
AFC Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on New England minus the points over Pittsburgh at 1 pm et on Sunday. With T.J. Watt sidelined and Najee Harris severely banged-up the Steelers just don't have a lot of redeeming qualities as they return home off last Sunday's stunning upset win over the defending AFC champion Bengals in Cincinnati. Credit the Steelers for gutting out a win in that overtime game but let's face it, the result was gift-wrapped by the Bengals, who looked completely out of sorts on both sides of the football. Here, the Steelers have the benefit of returning home but do so against a Patriots squad that has a foul taste in its mouth off last Sunday's divisional road loss in Miami. Whiel the Pats offense certainly has plenty of warts, I don't think it is as bad as it is being made out to be. Xavien Howard blanketed Devante Parker in last Sunday's game and Mac Jones struggled to find consistent options to pass to and the ground game wasn't able to thrive trailing for much of the contest. I expect a different story to unfold here as the Patriots defense and ground attack comes up big against a Steelers squad that quite simply doesn't match up well on either side of the football. Pittsburgh's offensive line is still a mess and I have little faith in QB Mitchell Trubisky holding down the starting job for more than the first few games this season. Defensively, T.J. Watt is the Steelers engine and his absence can't be understated. The Pittsburgh secondary came up big last Sunday but that had a lot to do with Watt pressuring Joe Burrow into ill-advised throws. Both of these teams probably deserve to be 1-1 through two weeks and I'm confident that's how it will play out. Take New England (10*). | |||||||
09-18-22 | Dolphins v. Ravens OVER 44.5 | 42-38 | Win | 100 | 5 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Baltimore at 1 pm et on Sunday. If you've followed my plays in recent years, you know that I like to pick my spots with 'over' plays in Baltimore, where the Ravens carry a reputation as a defensive juggernaut but simply haven't been that team for quite some time. Here, we can anticipate the Dolphins attacking a banged-up Ravens secondary relentlessly, with first-year head coach Mike McDaniel seemingly bent on playing to his offense's strengths and feeding the electric WR duo of Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill. Not to be outdone, I expect the Ravens to continue to attack downfield with a severely limited backfield that may or may not get J.K. Dobbins back on the field this week. The Patriots actually marched up and down the field on the Dolphins defense last Sunday but simply couldn't capitalize with touchdowns. The Ravens are better-suited to finish off drives with points thanks to Lamar Jackson's dual threat ability. This one has sneaky shootout potential in my opinion. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
09-18-22 | Panthers +2.5 v. Giants | 16-19 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Carolina plus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. I can’t help but feel the wrong team is favored in this game as the 0-1 Panthers head to the Meadowlands to challenge the 1-0 Giants. Carolina fell on a last-second field goal at home against the Browns last Sunday. I actually felt QB Baker Mayfield performed better than expected in his debut with his new team. RB Christian McCaffrey was a non-factor but that changes this week as I expect him to eat in the short passing game. The Giants were already depth-shy in the secondary and will be forced to go without their number two corner Aaron Robinson this week. Like McCaffrey, I expect WR D.J. Moore to have a big bounce-back performance here. Saquon Barkley absolutely went off for the G-Men in last week’s win in Tennessee, virtually willing them to victory. I still don’t believe Daniel Jones is the answer at quarterback and as much as head coach Brian Daboll would like to limit his quarterback’s impact on the game, I look for the Panthers defense to feast on Jones this week. Take Carolina (8*). | |||||||
09-17-22 | San Diego State v. Utah -20 | Top | 7-35 | Win | 100 | 130 h 25 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Utah minus the points over San Diego State at 10 pm et on Saturday. After dropping a tough 29-26 decision against Florida at The Swamp back in Week 1, Utah needed a big victory to feel good about itself again last Saturday and it delivered just that to the tune of a 73-7 rout of FCS squad Southern Utah. Now comes a tougher matchup against San Diego State but I’m confident the Utes will be up to the challenge. Utah left no doubt in last week’s contest, scoring five offensive touchdowns (and adding a field goal) in a 14-minute span in the second quarter. I liked the way the Utes continued to pour it on late in that game, adding three more touchdowns in the final 23 minutes, even with the outcome having long been decided. There were certainly some signs of rust offensively, particularly early on against Florida but that has clearly been taken care of. San Diego State opened with a 38-20 drubbing at the hands of Arizona before rebounding with a 38-7 win over Idaho State last week. Note that it took the Aztecs nearly 10 minutes before they scored their first offensive touchdown in that win over Idaho State and that came on the sort of defensive breakdown you just won’t see from Utah. There was also a stretch where the Aztecs were held out of the end zone for 35 minutes in that contest - not encouraging considering that was against the likes of FCS squad Idaho State. The jury is still out as to whether former Virginia Tech standout QB Braxton Burmeister is the right fit in this offense. San Diego State always brings a solid defense to the table but here it will be dealing with its toughest offensive opponent to date, and we’ll note that it yielded an offensive touchdown in all four quarters in its season-opener against Arizona prior to last week’s victory. Take Utah (10*). | |||||||
09-17-22 | Miami-FL v. Texas A&M OVER 44.5 | 9-17 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Texas A&M at 9 pm et on Saturday. NOTE: Late in the week the Aggie announced that Max Johnson would get the start at quarterback in place of Haynes King. More of a pocket-passer capable of elevating his receivers, I don't mind the move and will stick with the play on the 'over'. This total has taken a nosedive since opening, rightfully so in the eyes of most after Texas A&M was held to just 14 points in an upset loss against Appalachian State last Saturday. I'm confident we'll see the Aggies offense bounce back in a high-profile matchup with 2-0 Miami this week. We won with the 'under' in the Hurricanes 30-7 rout of Southern Miss in searing southern Florida heat last Saturday. Miami feasted on a one-dimensional Golden Eagles offense on that day. While the Canes did lose standout WR Xavier Restrepo in that victory, I'm confident others can step up in his absence on Saturday. I think it's important not to write off teams after one bad performance and that's the case with A&M here, particularly on offense. QB Haynes King was awful last week but keep in mind he's just one game removed from passing for 364 yards and three touchdowns in his season debut. Highly-touted RB Devon Achane was held in check by Appalachian State last week as well. Again, here I'm anticipating a strong bounce-back performance from the electric RB who did return a kick for a touchdown in last week's defeat. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
09-17-22 | White Sox -1.5 v. Tigers | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago -1.5 runs over Detroit at 6:10 pm et on Saturday. The Tigers had arguably their most favorable starting pitching matchup of this series last night and took advantage in a 3-2 victory. As much as they'd like to play spoiler again on Saturday, I expect the White Sox to answer back. Johnny Cueto will take the ball for Chicago. He's enjoyed a 'turn back the clock' season of sorts but certainly didn't have his best stuff in a blowout loss against the A's in Oakland last time out. This is the type of big game the Sox brought the veteran in for and I expect him to pitch well, noting he owns a 2.30 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 11 previous road starts this season. The last time he faced Detroit back in early July he tossed eight shutout innings in one of his best outings of the season. Left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez will counter for the Tigers. He has labored through 13 starts this season, posting a 4.50 ERA and 1.57 WHIP. Over his last three outings he has been tagged for 13 earned runs in 16 innings, yielding five home runs over that stretch. He was ineffective in his lone previous start against Chicago this season, giving up three earned runs while lasting only four innings. Noting that each of the White Sox last six victories has come by 2+ runs, I'm comfortable laying the extra run here. Take Chicago -1.5 runs (8*). | |||||||
09-17-22 | Mississippi State v. LSU OVER 53 | Top | 16-31 | Loss | -108 | 31 h 23 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Mississippi State and LSU at 6 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the 'over' in Mississippi State's rout of Arizona last Saturday. We probably deserved a better fate but the scoring fizzled after a 22-point first quarter and the game ultimately finished just a shade 'under' the total. I expect a different story to unfold here. The Bulldogs are off to a roaring start offensively and that's to be expected as they have all of the pieces in place and a head coach that knows how to get the most out of those pieces in Mike Leach. I like the way Mississippi State has continued to pour it on late in its first two games, even with the outcome already all but decided. The Bulldogs have scored four fourth quarter touchdowns. All most can think about when it comes to LSU is that disappointing season-opening 24-23 loss to Florida State. Few were paying atttention but the Tigers absolutely exploded offensively last week against FCS squad Southern, putting up 37 points before the game was even a quarter old. Incredibly, LSU has now scored a whopping 11 offensive touchdowns over essentially the last five quarters of football (the Tigers scored with eight seconds remaining in the third quarter of their season-opener against Florida State). Last week's matchup between these two teams totalled 53 points and that's where this total sits at the time of writing. I believe it will prove too low. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-17-22 | Kansas v. Houston -8 | 48-30 | Loss | -112 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston minus the points over Kansas at 4 pm et on Saturday. Kansas rolls into this showdown with Houston sporting a perfect 2-0 record off last week's stunning overtime win on the road against West Virginia. I expect the Jayhawks to have their hands full against the 1-1 Houston Cougars on Saturday though. Kansas actually fell behind 14-0 after the first quarter against West Virginia last week and I think the Mountaineers believed it was going to be a cakewalk at that point. The Jayhawks would go on to yield another touchdown early in the second quarter - they allowed three touchdowns before the game was even 17 minutes old. From there, Kansas' offense picked up the pace and was a thorn in the Mountaineers side all game long. Of course West Virginia's defense might just be awful given the way it has performed so far this season. It's a different story with Houston. The Cougars are battle-tested after defeating an excellent UTSA squad on the road in overtime in Week 1 and then dropping a tough overtime decision on the road against Texas Tech last week. There were positives to take away from both games. Of course the offense will be fine. The defense, however, despite allowing 68 points, has fared well. The Cougars didn't allow an explosive UTSA offense to score until just shy of two minutes into the second quarter in Week 1. After allowing a Roadrunners touchdown with around four minutes left in the third quarter, Houston held them out of the end zone for the rest of regulation time (and the first overtime). Last week, the Cougars held the Red Raiders out of the end zone until nearly five minutes into the second quarter. Texas Tech had a late touchdown in the final minute of the first half but from there didn't reach the end zone again until the first overtime. You get the picture. I expect Kansas to be taken out of its element in this one. Houston is familiar with facing dual-threat quarterbacks already this season and I don't expect it to be blindsided by Kansas QB Jalon Daniels. Take Houston (8*). | |||||||
09-17-22 | New Mexico State v. Wisconsin -37 | 7-66 | Win | 100 | 124 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Wisconsin minus the points over New Mexico State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We successfully faded Wisconsin in its outright loss to Washington State last Saturday. That result didn’t actually come as nearly as big of a surprise to us as it did to most. Here, the Badgers have an ideal ‘get right’ matchup against lowly New Mexico State and I won’t hesitate to switch gears and lay the points. New Mexico State is 0-3 to start the season, scoring just 25 points in those three contests. QB Diego Pavia has been the Aggies leading rusher in all three games which is concerning when you consider he’s topped out at 69 rushing yards - that coming in last week’s loss to UTEP. I question whether the Aggies can do enough offensively to stay on the field and give their defense a break against Wisconsin, which should absolutely own the battle in the trenches. In a similar matchup at Minnesota two games back, New Mexico State allowed 485 total yards including just shy of 300 on the ground in a 38-0 loss. Look for the Badgers backfield tandem of Allen and Mellusi to absolutely go off and pace the lopsided victory on Saturday. Take Wisconsin (8*). | |||||||
09-17-22 | Penn State v. Auburn UNDER 48 | 41-12 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Penn State and Auburn at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I'll keep my analysis short with this being a late addition to Saturday's card. Last year's meeting between these two teams totalled exactly 48 points, which just happens to be the total being offered at most books this time around. Penn State 'only' scored 28 points in that game despite completing 29-of-33 passes for over 300 yards. Auburn 'only' scored 20 points despite rushing for just shy of 200 yards. Here, I look for the defenses to step up. Penn State has shredded through a pair of subpar defensive opponents in Purdue and Ohio to open the season, uncharacteristically lighting up the scoreboard for 81 points through two games. Auburn opened the season with a 42-point outburst against FCS opponent Mercer but then only managed 24 points in a sleepy win over San Jose State last week. While I do think we see both offenses move the chains consistently - I think ending drives with touchdowns could prove difficult here. Penn State's secondary bottles up the Auburn pass-catchers and the Tigers get to Nittany Lions QB Sean Clifford early and often. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
09-17-22 | Rutgers v. Temple UNDER 44 | 16-14 | Win | 100 | 122 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Rutgers and Temple at 2 pm et on Saturday. Last year, we hit one of our biggest plays of the season on Rutgers minus the points against Temple in an eventual 61-14 rout. I won’t hesitate to switch gears and back the ‘under’ in this year’s rematch at Lincoln Financial Field. Rutgers blew the doors off FCS squad Wagner last week, scoring 66 points in a 59-point victory. Let’s not get too carried away by that result, however. The Scarlet Knights are just one game removed from scoring just 22 points in a narrow win over Boston College in their season-opener. There are still question marks on the offensive line and at quarterback, where Evan Simon and Gavin Wimsatt have split time under center (I’m rarely a fan of the time share at quarterbackat this level). Temple dropped its opener by a 30-0 score at Duke but rebounded for a 30-14 win over FCS squad Lafayette last Saturday. Note that after scoring a touchdown in the game’s first five minutes against Lafayette, the Owls didn’t reach the end zone again until the final three minutes of the first half. They were held off the scoreboard entirely in the third quarter when the result of the game was still hanging in the balance, up by a 21-14 score. I won’t knock the Temple defense too much for that ugly loss at Duke in Week 1. To its credit it did hold the Blue Devils out of the end zone over the game’s final 37 minutes and got very little help from its offense in that one. Here, I’m confident the Owls offense can move the football just enough to keep their defense fresh and ultimately limit the scoring in this contest. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
09-17-22 | Ohio v. Iowa State -17.5 | 10-43 | Win | 100 | 122 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Iowa State minus the points over Ohio at 2 pm et on Saturday. Iowa State may not have looked overly impressive in an ugly 10-7 victory over rival Iowa last Saturday but that’s just how that series goes. Keep in mind, the Cyclones scored three offensive touchdowns before their season-opener against FCS squad Southeast Missouri State was a quarter-and-a-half old and they’ll be up against a similarly-porous defense here. Ohio got its season started with an impressive 41-38 win over Florida Atlantic as QB Kurtis Rourke had the game of his life, completing 27-of-34 passes for 345 yards and four touchdowns while adding a rushing score. The Bobcats were quickly brought back to Earth in a 46-10 rout at the hands of Penn State last Saturday. Even after the Nittany Lions brought in the backups up big in the third quarter, they still managed to tack on three more touchdowns. Expect the Bobcats defense to once again have its hands full here. While Breece Hall is no longer storming out of the backfield for Iowa State, Jirehl Brock has impressed, running for 204 yards and a score on 43 carries. WR Xavier Hutchinson is already in midseason form, hauling in 19 catches of 226 yards and four touchdowns and should obliterate an overmatched Ohio secondary here. The Cyclones defense takes care of the rest. Take Iowa State (9*). | |||||||
09-17-22 | Buffalo +14.5 v. Coastal Carolina | 26-38 | Win | 100 | 121 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Buffalo plus the points over Coastal Carolina at 1 pm et on Saturday. Buffalo is coming off a 37-31 home loss against Holy Cross last Saturday but let’s not get too down on the Bulls for that upset loss. Note that Holy Cross is one of the better FCS teams in the country and Buffalo was actually favored by less than a touchdown in that game. So now Buffalo goes on the road with an 0-2 record (it lost its opener by a 31-10 score at Maryland) to face undefeated Coastal Carolina. I expect the Bulls to give the Chanticleers all they can handle, just as they did in last year’s matchup between these two teams - a 28-25 Coastal Carolina victory in Buffalo. Note that while the Bulls ended up giving up 37 points in last week’s loss, they actually held Holy Cross off the scoreboard entirely for the game’s first 25 minutes. After jumping ahead 21-7 late in the second quarter it almost seemed like the Bulls felt they could shift into cruise control and be gifted a victory. It’s not as if Buffalo had its doors blown off in a tough road game at Maryland in Week 1. It gave up a couple of early touchdowns in that contest but held the Terrapins to just two more touchdowns over the game’s final 47 minutes. Coastal Carolina is off to a perfect 2-0 start after pulling out a win over FCS squad Gardner-Webb thanks to a late touchdown last Saturday. The Chanticleers actually didn’t score an offensive touchdown until past the midway mark of the second quarter in that game and that only came thanks to being gifted excellent field position on a muffed kickoff. While a 38-28 win over Army in the season-opener looks impressive at first glance, it’s important to keep in mind that the Black Knights have been a sieve defensively so far this season. As is the case with a lot of upstart schools that find some success, Coastal Carolina had to deal with plenty of key departures in the offseason and while this is still a very talented football team, I’m not convinced it will prove to be the same juggernaut we’ve seen over the last two seasons. Take Buffalo (8*). | |||||||
09-17-22 | Connecticut v. Michigan OVER 57.5 | 0-59 | Win | 100 | 120 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Connecticut and Michigan at 12 noon et on Saturday. The Wolverines have passed every test through their first two games, hanging 51 points on Colorado State and 56 points on Hawaii. Now they get another cupcake matchup against Connecticut and I look for them to do more than enough offensively to help this one ‘over’ the total. Last Saturday we saw Michigan score six offensive touchdowns in the first half alone. I liked the way it closed that game, tacking on two more touchdowns even though the game had long been decided. It was a similar story in Week 1 against Colorado State as the Wolverines sputtered a little bit early, settling for three first half field goals (to go along with two touchdowns) but ended up tacking on three touchdowns in the game’s final 21 minutes. Connecticut has actually shown some signs of life offensively this season, scoring 20, 28 and 14 points through three games. While that may not seem like much, when you consider how punchless the Huskies have been in recent years, it’s a step in the right direction. Defensively, however, UConn remains a mess. Last week, it gave up five offensive touchdowns in the game’s first 43 minutes against Syracuse. The Huskies also got torched for three offensive touchdowns in an 11-minute stretch in the second quarter in their opener against Utah State. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
09-16-22 | Air Force v. Wyoming +16 | Top | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 32 h 24 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Wyoming plus the points over Air Force at 8 pm et on Friday. We won with Air Force in its rout of Colorado last week but I won't hesitate to go the other way and fade the Falcons as they head to Laramie to take on Wyoming on Friday. This projects are a relatively low-scoring game with a total in the mid-to-high 40's, which obviously favors the Cowboys catching north of two touchdowns. Air Force has averaged 27.8 points the last 67 times it has played with the total set between 42.5 and 49 points. Note that these teams match up every year in the Mountain West Conference. Air Force has scored more than 28 points just once in the last 14 meetings. The only time it did so it still scored 'only' 31 points. That might not be enough to cover the number here. Wyoming already has three games under its belt and seems to have found its identity, pounding the football with a terrific ground game led by RB Titus Swen. You can run on this Air Force defense noting that it has allowed FCS squad Northern Iowa and Colorado to each gain exactly 119 rushing yards, despite negative game script for both of those teams in lopsided contests in favor of the Falcons. Run the football, move the chains and effectively shorten the game. That has to be the gameplan for the Cowboys here and I believe it's one they can execute. When playing on the road off an ATS win, Air Force has outscored opponents by an average margin of only 3.2 points (67-game sample size). Take Wyoming (10*). | |||||||
09-16-22 | Phillies v. Braves -1.5 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 115 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
N.L. East Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over Philadelphia at 7:20 pm et on Friday. The Braves have lost four of their last five games but they had the benefit of an off-day following a long road trip yesterday and I expect them to right the ship on Friday against division-rival Philadelphia. N.L. Cy Young candidate Max Fried would seem to be the right guy to have on the mound to start the turn-around. Fried checks in with a 2.42 ERA and 1.13 WHIP with the Braves winning 11 of his 16 home starts this season. The last time he pitched against Philadelphia, the Braves fell by a 6-4 score on the road. It was still a fine outing for Fried as he allowed just three earned runs while striking out eight and not walking a single batter over six innings. His counterpart on Friday will be fellow left-hander Ranger Suarez of the Phillies. He's had an up-and-down season and should be in tough here as the Braves get their fourth look at him, having already plated 12 runs in 16 innings against him this season. Note that of Suarez's nine team losses this season, eight of them have come by multiple runs. The only one that didn't was a game where Philadelphia didn't score a run in a 1-0 defeat against Cincinnati. The Braves two previous victories against Suarez this season came by scores of 8-4 and 4-1. Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (10*). | |||||||
09-16-22 | Royals v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
A.L. Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Kansas City and Boston at 7:10 pm et on Friday. We missed with the 'over' in the Royals 3-2 loss in Minnesota last night. The Kansas City bats were quiet once again but I think a change of scenery will serve them well as they head to Fenway Park on Friday. Jon Heasley will take the ball for the visiting Royals. He's had a miserable rookie campaign and things certainly haven't gotten any better down the stretch as he's been tagged for 12 earned runs in 16 innings over his last three outings, yielding four home runs along the way. His last four road starts have resulted in games totalling 23, 13, 10 and 14 runs. Michael Wacha has actually been terrific for the Red Sox this season but I can't help but after stringing together three consecutive quality starts on the road, I think he gets a dose of reality back at home. The 'under' cashed in each of Wacha's first five starts this season but high-scoring games have been the norm since then as the 'over' has gone 8-5-1 over his last 14 starts. The last time he pitched here at Fenway Park back on August 26th we saw 17 total runs in a game against the Rays. The Royals bats have been quiet but they still average 3.8 runs per game away from home this season and I think that will be enough to help this one 'over' the total on Friday. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-15-22 | Chargers v. Chiefs UNDER 54.5 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
AFC West total of the Month. My selection is on the first half 'under' between Los Angeles and Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. In a division game on a short week at this early stage of the season, I'm not anticipating a lot of first half offensive fireworks between the Chargers and Chiefs on Thursday night. Note that this same matchup produced just 17 and 24 points in the first half in two meetings last year. The Chargers have seen six of their last seven September games stay 'under' the total in the first half and the 'under' is 9-4 in the first half in all Chargers games where the first half total has been set at 25 points or more going back to 2020. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have appeared in two Thursday night games over the last two seasons and both got off to low-scoring starts with the 'under' cashing in the first half. In the long-term picture, the 'under' is 35-19 in the first half in the Chiefs last 54 games played in the first month of the season. I'm not convinced the Kansas City offense is going to be quite as explosive as we saw in last week's rout of the Cardinals, noting that Arizona's blitz-happy nature on defense really opened things up for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense. The Chargers can stay home a little more and still generate pressure with the likes of Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack on the outside. On the flip side, the Chargers always seem to generate a ton of early season hype before fizzling late. I don't expect them to roll into Arrowhead and lay waste to a good Chiefs defense - at least not early in Thursday's contest. Take the first half under (10*). | |||||||
09-15-22 | Royals v. Twins OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Kansas City and Minnesota at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. We saw a low-scoring affair between these two teams last night as the Royals bats stayed quiet for a second consecutive night. Interestingly, Kansas City has now gone eight games without scoring at least six runs - its second-longest such streak of the season. I feel the Royals are well-positioned to bust out at the plate against Twins starter Dylan Bundy on Thursday. Bundy got rocked for seven earned runs on 12 hits including three home runs against the Guardians last time out. You would have to go all the way back to June 24th to find the last time he lasted at least six innings in a start, illustrating his lack of effectiveness. He checks in allowing a lofty 9.6 hits and 4.83 runs per nine innings this season. Daniel Lynch hasn't been much better for the Royals - in fact, he's been worse. Lynch gives up a whopping 10.5 hits and 5.38 runs per nine innings this season. He's clearly wearing down as we hit the stretch run, having allowed 17 earned runs in just 18 1/3 innings over his last four outings. Neither bullpen instills much confidence as the two relief corps have combined for 39 blown saves this season. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-15-22 | Manchester United v. Sheriff +2 | Top | 2-0 | Push | 0 | 15 h 8 m | Show |
Europa League Game of the Month. My selection is on Sheriff Tiraspol +2 goals over Manchester United at 12:45 pm et on Thursday. We won with Sheriff Tiraspol plus a half-goal in an away match against Omonia in Europa League action last week. Here, we get Tiraspol playing on its home soil in Moldova, knowing it has a monumental opportunity to stage an upset against mighty Manchester United. Sheriff checks in having reeled off three consecutive shutout victories, undefeated across its last eight matches. Manchester United dropped a 1-0 decision against Real Sociedad last week and now faces an uphill battle to climb the Group E standings. While the Red Devils are being priced as a massive favorite here, I believe Tiraspol is well-positioned due to its stingy nature. Note that Sheriff has seen four of its last five matches total less than 2.5 goals. Here, we're being given a massive head start with a two-goal cushion with the home side. Take Sheriff Tiraspol +2 goals (10*). | |||||||
09-15-22 | Nantes v. Qarabag FK OVER 2.5 | 0-3 | Win | 102 | 15 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Qarabag FK and FC Nantes at 12:45 pm et on Thursday. | |||||||
09-14-22 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks +120 | 3-5 | Win | 120 | 14 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona over Los Angeles at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday. I can't help but feel this is a 'throwaway game' for the Dodgers after taking the first two games of the series in lopsided fashion. They'll send rookie Michael Grove to the hill. He hasn't fared particularly well in 9 1/3 innings at the big league level this season but worse still, he allowed 2.4 home runs and 5.3 walks per nine innings at the highest minor league level he pitched at last season (Double-A) and we're not talking about a small sample size as he's logged 71 innings. This year he has logged a 3.79 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, still yielding 1.3 home runs and 3.1 walks per nine innings in time split between Double and Triple-A. Zach Davies has held his own in three previous starts against the Dodgers this season with the D'Backs splitting his two home outings against them. He didn't have his best stuff last time out and paid the price at hitter-friendly Coors Field but I look for him to bounce back here at home where he owns a 3.14 ERA and 1.30 WHIP this season. Take Arizona (8*). | |||||||
09-14-22 | Brewers v. Cardinals +112 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 112 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
MLB Division Game of the Week. My selection is on St. Louis over Milwaukee at 7:45 pm et on Wednesday. The Brewers took the opener of this two-game set by an 8-4 score last night. I look for the Cardinals to bounce back on Wednesday. Corbin Burnes will take the ball for the Brewers. After topping out at six strikeouts in his previous five starts, he K'd 14 batters against the Giants last time out. You would have to go back six starts against the Cardinals to find the last time St. Louis picked up a win against Burnes. With that being said, I believe there's reason for optimism on Wednesday. Cards starter Adam Wainwright is one of the fiercest competitors in baseball so you can be sure his last two rocky outings haven't sat well with him. On a positive note, he's given up just one home run in his last nine starts and hasn't issued a walk in three of his last five outings. He checks in sporting a 2.65 ERA and 1.14 WHIP at home this season. With a comfortable cushion atop the N.L. Central Division, the Cards may not have a lot to motivate them at the moment but I believe avoiding a sweep at the hands of the division-rival Brewers should do the trick on Wednesday. Take St. Louis (10*). | |||||||
09-14-22 | Cubs v. Mets -1.5 | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York -1.5 runs over Chicago at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Mets have inexplicably dropped the first two games against a Cubs team that is simply playing out the string at this point. I'm confident we'll see them answer back on Wednesday. Drew Smyly will take the ball for Chicago. He's coming off one of his best starts of the season, tossing seven innings of one-run ball against the Giants. Consistency hasn't been his calling card, however, noting that he was tagged for seven earned runs in just 2 1/3 innings against the Cardinals in the start previous to that. In 12 nighttime starts this season, the Cubs have won just twice and Smyly has recorded a 4.71 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. David Peterson will counter for New York. He's coming off a shaky outing against the Mets, allowing three earned runs in only 3 2/3 innings. There's still a lot to like about Peterson as he's allowed just one home run in his last six starts. In his lone previous outing against the Cubs this season he didn't allow an earned run over five innings, striking out eight along the way. Noting that the Mets last five wins have come by 4, 4, 10, 8 and 6 runs, I'm comfortable laying the extra run with the Mets here. Take New York -1.5 runs (8*). | |||||||
09-14-22 | Sevilla v. FC Copenhagen OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -101 | 19 h 23 m | Show |
Champions League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between FC Kobenhavn and Sevilla at 3 pm et on Wednesday. Both of these teams enter Wednesday's Champions League clash with deficiencies at the back end and I'm confident we'll see plenty of offensive fireworks in Copenhagen. Sevilla, despite playing in often goal-starved La Liga, has gone its last six matches without recording a single clean sheet. Of those six contests, five found their way 'over' 2.5 total goals. It's a similar story for Kobenhavn as it has seen eight of its last 10 contests sail 'over' 2.5 total goals. With that being said, both sides were actually shut out in their most recent Champions League matches. Sitting pointless at the bottom of the Group G standings, looking up at the likes of Manchester City and Borussia Dortmund (who also square off on Wednesday) you can understand why both sides would 'go for it' in this contest. A 2-1 result is the most likely outcome in my opinion and that's enough to push this one 'over' the total. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-14-22 | Salzburg +1.5 v. Chelsea | 1-1 | Win | 100 | 19 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on Red Bull Salzburg +1.5 goals over Chelsea at 3 pm et on Wednesday. We're getting excellent value backing Salzburg with an insurance goal at a near pk'em price on Wednesday. The upstart Austrian side, which boast a roster with an average age of less than 24 years, has gone undefeated across its last eight matches, scoring first in all eight of those contests. Salzburg has carried a lead into halftime in four of its last five contests. Meanwhile, you would have to go back seven matches to find the last time Chelsea recorded a clean sheet. I believe they'll be hard-pressed to accomplish that feat here as well, which would mean the Blues would need at least three goals to cover the standard goal-line being offered here. We've seen Chelsea play fairly loose lately with five of its last six matches going 'over' 2.5 total goals and I believe that plays into the hands of Salzburg in an underdog role on Wednesday. Take Red Bull Salzburg +1.5 goals (8*). | |||||||
09-14-22 | Benfica +0.5 v. Juventus | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 19 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Benfica +0.5 goals over Juventus at 3 pm et on Wednesday. I have to take a flyer with Benfica plus the half-goal here, noting that the Portuguese side has incredibly reeled off 17 consecutive victories heading in. Juventus hasn't been its usual defensively sound self lately, failing to record a clean sheet in its last three matches, going winless over that stretch. Keep in mind, the Italian side has an average age north of 29 years. It will have its hands full with a Benfica squad that has struck first in eight of its last 10 matches across all competitions. Juventus desperately needs to at least come away with a point in this match noting that Benfica and PSG sit atop the Group H table following their respective victories last week. In a match that figures to be of the low-scoring variety, I'm comfortable grabbing the half-goal insurance with the visitors. Take Benfica +0.5 goals (8*). | |||||||
09-13-22 | Braves -1.5 v. Giants | Top | 5-1 | Win | 102 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
N.L. Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Tuesday. The Giants got past the Braves by a 3-2 score last night, taking advantage of an off night from the Atlanta offense. Here, I look for the visiting Braves to answer back and bring an end to their three-game slide. As I've talked about all season long, Braves starter Kyle Wright is one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball. With that being said, he's coming off his worst outing of the season last week against the A's. He also struggled in his lone previous start against the Giants this season. Noting that he has posted a 3.69 FIP and 1.15 WHIP while allowing only 3.4 runs per nine innings this season, I'm confident he'll make the necessary adjustments and bounce back here. Jakob Junis will counter for the Giants. He's labored through his last two starts, lasting just 4 1/3 innings in each outing. He checks in with a 3.82 FIP and 1.18 WHIP while allowing just shy of 4.1 runs per nine innings this season. The Giants bullpen held up well last night but still owns a less than impressive 4.12 ERA and 1.36 WHIP at home this season. The Braves 'pen on the other hand has posted a 3.27 ERA and 1.18 WHIP while converting 26 saves and blowing only nine on the road. Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (10*). | |||||||
09-13-22 | Rockies v. White Sox -1.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 110 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Chicago -1.5 runs over Colorado at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. The hard-charging White Sox still believe they have a shot at the postseason but this is precisely the type of matchup they'll need to take advantage of if they're to play their way into October. The Rockies are coming off a 4-2 homestand but the road hasn't been kind to them this season (that's nothing new). Colorado checks in a woeful 21-46 away from home this season where it has been outscored by 2.1 runs per game. Chad Kuhl will get the start for the visiting Rockies. He had a solid start to his Rockies tenure earlier this season but the wheels have since fallen off. Kuhl owns an ugly 6.29 ERA and 1.65 WHIP in 13 road starts, averaging fewer than five innings per outing. That spells trouble when you consider Colorado's bullpen has posted a collective 5.27 ERA and 1.54 WHIP over the last seven games. Michael Kopech hasn't been much better for Chicago but at least he's pitched well here at home where he owns a 2.97 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 12 starts. Behind him is a White Sox bullpen that has posted a collective 1.20 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take Chicago -1.5 runs (10*). | |||||||
09-12-22 | Braves -170 v. Giants | 2-3 | Loss | -170 | 15 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta over San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Monday. Tough turnaround for the Giants here as they played a night game in Chicago last night (they won 4-2) and now have to return home to host the Braves on Monday. Atlanta should be in a foul mood after dropping consecutive games against the Mariners over the weekend. I like the Braves chances of rebounding here with impressive rookie Spencer Strider getting the start. Strider will be out for revenge after he turned in one of his worst performances of the season against the Giants back in June (six ER in 3 2/3 innings). He's been terrific lately, allowing a grand total of five earned runs over his last five starts, covering a span of 31 innings. In his last 20 innings of work he's struck out 32 batters. Alex Cobb will counter for San Francisco. He lasted only 4 1/3 innings and allowed three earned runs on seven hits against the Dodgers last time out. Facing the Dodgers and Braves in succession is obviously a tall order for any pitcher and I expect Cobb to struggle again here. While the Braves bullpen coughed one up against the Mariners yesterday, it entered that contest sporting a collective 1.96 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over the last seven games. Meanwhile, the Giants 'pen owns a 4.09 ERA and 1.35 WHIP with only 13 saves converted and seven blown at home this season. Take Atlanta (8*). | |||||||
09-12-22 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9 | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Monday. You would have to go back 10 games to find the last time the Dodgers posted an 'over' result. I don't expect that streak to continue on Monday, however. Los Angeles will send Tyler Anderson to the hill on Monday. The left-hander has enjoyed a career year and hasn't shown any signs of wear in the latter stages of the campaign as he's gone seven innings in three of his last four starts (and allowed just one earned run over 5 1/3 innings in the other). Anderson checks in sporting a 3.16 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 13 road starts this season and has allowed just two earned runs in 13 innings in two outings against the D'Backs. Rookie Ryne Nelson (a top-10 prospect in the D'Backs organization) will counter for Arizona. He was masterful in his big league debut, tossing seven shutout innings against the Padres, on the road no less. While I do expect the Dodgers to inflict some damage tonight, I simply feel that this total has been set too high given the high potential that Anderson and the L.A. bullpen shut down the D'Backs offense. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
09-12-22 | Broncos v. Seahawks OVER 44 | 16-17 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Seattle at 8:15 pm et on Monday. Few believe the Seahawks will be able to mount any sort of offense against the Broncos vaunted defense on Monday night, certainly not with journeyman QB Geno Smith at the helm. While I don't envision Seattle staging an upset victory here, I do think it can contribute enough offense to help this one 'over' the reasonably priced total. First, let's talk about the Broncos. Denver's offense figures to be much improved with QB Russell Wilson representing a massive upgrade over Drew Lock, who is now the Seahawks backup QB. Wilson has a full compliment of weapons at his disposal to star the season with among the best 1-2 tandems both in the backfield and at the wide receiver position. On the flip side, the Broncos are a little banged-up on defense and could be vulnerable against the run in particular. That plays into the hands of what the Seahawks want to do and that's pound the football. Note that while most consider Geno Smith dust at this stage of his career, he did make three starts last season and showed a good rapport with WR DK Metcalf in particular, hooking up with him for 251 yards and four scores. Expect some offensive fireworks on Monday. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
09-12-22 | Rangers v. Marlins -118 | 3-2 | Loss | -118 | 7 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami over Texas at 1:10 pm et on Monday. The Rangers salvaged the finale of their three-game series with the Blue Jays yesterday but I look for their winning ways to be short-lived as they head to Miami to face the Marlins in Game 1 of a day-night double-header on Monday. Glenn Otto will get the start for Texas. After getting a cup of coffee with the big club last season (he pitched just over 20 innings), he's struggled here in 2022, posting a 5.16 FIP and 1.38 WHIP while allowing north of 5.1 runs per nine innings. He looks very much like a pitcher that might be running out of gas down the stretch, having failed to last more than five innings in any of his last three outings. Marlins starter Trevor Rogers has seemingly regained his form since returning from injury. He's given up just four earned runs in 12 innings, striking out 13 and walking only one, in two starts since returning to the rotation in late August. While the Rangers bullpen brings better recent form to the table, it's worth noting that they've converted just 14 saves while blowing 13 on the road this season. Look for Miami to bounce back from yesterday's beatdown at the hands of the Mets. Take Miami (8*). | |||||||
09-11-22 | Tigers v. Royals -145 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
A.L. Central Game of the Month. My selection is on Kansas City over Detroit at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. The Tigers have taken the first two games of this series but I look for the Royals to answer back on Sunday. Tyler Alexander takes the ball for Detroit. He checks in sporting a 5.03 FIP and 1.38 WHIP while allowing north of 5.7 runs per nine innings this season. The Royals have never faced him but going up against an opponent for the first time hasn't necessarily led to success for Alexander in the past and I don't believe it will here either. Kansas City will counter with Brady Singer. He hasn't had his best stuff over his last two outings but I look for him to bounce back here, noting that he owns a career 2.72 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in nine previous starts against Detroit. Singer owns a 3.70 FIP and 1.17 WHIP while holding opponents to just 3.6 runs per nine innings this season. The Royals should own an advantage in the later innings as well as their bullpen has posted a collective 2.13 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over the last seven games while Detroit's relief corps checks in with a 5.62 ERA and 1.88 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Kansas City (10*). | |||||||
09-11-22 | Browns v. Panthers UNDER 42 | 26-24 | Loss | -110 | 120 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Carolina at 1 pm et on Sunday. This is one of the lowest posted totals on the Week 1 NFL board and it's warranted in my opinion. Cleveland's offense is likely going to be severely limited until QB Deshaun Watson can make his debut following an 11-game suspension. Jacoby Brissett has proven to be a serviceable backup QB but this is a far-from-ideal matchup as he sees his first true game action with his new team against what I consider to be an underrated Panthers defense. Carolina's pass rush should be able to camp out in the Browns backfield, should Cleveland elect to throw the ball often. The more likely game script from the Browns will involve plenty of running with the backfield tandem of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. That's just fine as it helps keep the clock moving. Carolina will have a revenge-minded Baker Mayfield under center as he was named the starting quarterback in August. I'm not counting on a whole lot of splash plays from the Panthers aerial attack. It's basically a one-man show when it comes to the Carolina receiving corps with D.J. Moore likely to see the bulk of the targets but also the majority of the attention from Browns elite cornerback Denzel Ward. Christian McCaffrey is the x-factor for the Panthers offense and all indications are that he's healthy entering the 2022 campaign. Expect the Browns to funnel their defense to Carolina's elite dual-threat running back and should the Panthers elect to keep the ball on the ground or employ a short pass-centric attack, that only helps to keep the clock moving and effectively shortens this game. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
09-11-22 | Eagles v. Lions OVER 48.5 | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 74 h 55 m | Show |
NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. This has the potential to be one of the most entertaining games on the Week 1 board. While we're dealing with a reasonably high posted total, I believe it could be even higher. Philadelphia is well-positioned to smash in this spot offensively. The Lions are an intriguing sleeper pick in the NFC North this season but that optimism has a lot more to do with their offense than their defense. That defense might just be awful and certainly doesn't get better after losing pass rusher Romeo Okwara to the PUP list. Philadelphia's offense should take flight in Jalen Hurts' second year as the starting QB. He'll be given plenty of help with an improved cast of receivers led by one of the best in the game in A.J. Brown. Perhaps what isn't getting enough attention is the strength of the Eagles offensive line, which should help give Hurts the opportunity to put up monster numbers this season. RB Miles Sanders and WR Devonta Smith are two keys at the skill positions that aren't being talked about enough in this offense either and set up well to go off in this particular matchup. Defensively, the Eagles are stout at the back-end but appear average at best up front and in the middle of the field. That plays right into the hands of a Lions offense that has two gamebreakers in RB De'Andre Swift and WR Amon-Ra St. Brown that are adept at attacking the middle of the football field. With Swift back healthy he's in for a monster season, operating behind an underrated Lions offensive line. I'm higher on QB Jared Goff than some, feeling that he's an excellent fit in this offense. We certainly saw him build terrific chemistry with St. Brown down the stretch last year (he had few other options to throw to at the time) and I'm confident that duo will pick up right where they left off here. While I like the Eagles to win this game, the Lions will undoubtedly be a 'tough out' playing in front of a rare packed house at Ford Field. Expect plenty of offensive fireworks. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-11-22 | Colts -7 v. Texans | Top | 20-20 | Loss | -110 | 74 h 34 m | Show |
AFC Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Indianapolis minus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. We've actually seen this line float down to the key number of -7 since opening. Last year, the Texans were a popular fade in Week 1 as they hosted the Jaguars. What did Houston do? It blew the doors off of its hapless opponent, crushing Jacksonville bettors in the process (myself included). It's a much different story this year. The general consensus is that the arrow is pointing up in Houston with seemingly only positive news coming out of camp and the preseason. I see this as a tough opening week matchup for the Texans, however, as they host the Colts and their new-look offense run by veteran QB Matt Ryan. I say new-look but it should be more of the same for Indianapolis with RB Jonathan Taylor once again the focal point. He absolutely ripped through the Texans in two meetings last season, gaining over 300 yards on 47 carries while also finding the end zone four times. That's not to say the Colts can't beat the Texans through the air as well. Houston's weakness on defense should lie in the secondary, where it used an early draft pick on CB Derek Stingley. While the Colts passing game doesn't look all that imposing at first glance, guys like WR Michael Pittman Jr. and TE Mo Alie-Cox have splash potential here. Houston's offense is going to be better this year, I'm confident of that as QB Davis Mills settles into his first full season as starter. This isn't the game where we see it though, at least not in my opinion, as the Colts defense put the clamps on Mills last year and should have little trouble doing so again here. Note that key run-stopper Shaquille Leonard was a full participant in Colts practice on Wednesday. While the Indianapolis defense does leave a lot to be desired at the back-end, its zone scheme works in its favor against a limited Texans receiving corps headlined by Brandin Cooks. There will be spots where we can successfully back Houston in an underdog role, likely sooner rather than later, but not this week. Take Indianapolis (10*). |
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