Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
04-02-21 | Bulls +12.5 v. Jazz | Top | 106-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Utah at 9:10 pm et on Friday. I'll grab the generous helping of points with the Bulls here, even with the assumption that Zach LaVine won't be in the lineup. Chicago fell just short in Phoenix two nights ago as Devin Booker absolutely went off in a five-point Suns victory. Now at the tail-end of this four-game road trip, Chicago will be looking to at least salvage some positive momentum before returning home. Of course, that's a tall task against the league-leading Jazz. However, this has been a bit of an emotionally-draining week for Utah after its plane headed for Memphis was forced to make an emergency landing after hitting a flock of birds shortly after taking off. Donovan Mitchell was particularly shaken up following the experience and didn't make the trip to Memphis. Utah ended up getting past the Grizzlies by four points in a game where we won with the 'under'. The Bulls are in a good spot here, noting that they've gone an incredible 20-5 ATS when coming off a loss by six points or less over the last two seasons. They're also 10-2 ATS when playing on the road after scoring 115 points or more in their last game this season, outscoring opponents by 5.5 points per game in that spot. There's really not much negative we can say about the Jazz as they've been dominant this season. I simply feel this is a spot where they're simply looking to keep their winning streak intact rather than win by margin. Take Chicago (10*). | |||||||
04-02-21 | Bulls v. Jazz UNDER 224.5 | 106-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Utah at 9:10 pm et on Friday. We've won with the 'under' in each of Utah's last two games but also cashed a ticket with the 'over' in its win over the Grizzlies last Friday night. Of course, it's been an emotional week for the Jazz after their plane was forced to make an emergency landing after hitting the flock of birds shortly after taking off on its way to Memphis. As a result, Donovan Mitchell ended up staying back in Utah while the Jazz delivered a 111-107 win over the Grizzlies on Wednesday. The 'under' has now cashed in five of Utah's last seven games overall. The Bulls have seen the 'under' cash in eight of their last 11 games and they enter this contest on the heels of five consecutive losses, including three in a row to open this road trip. While Zach LaVine remains questionable to play on Friday I would operate under the assumption he won't be able to go in this one. After allowing their last three opponents to shoot 50% or better I expect Chicago to focus on playing better defense here, noting that it has allowed 110.8 points per game when playing on the road after a game where 225 points or more were scored, well below its season average for points allowed per game. Meanwhile, the Jazz are giving up just 102.9 points per game after scoring 105 points or more in three straight games this season and enter this game fairly locked-in defensively, having held six straight opponents to 46.7% or worse shooting from the field. Finally, note that the 'under' has cashed in three of four meetings in this series over the last three seasons. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-02-21 | Flames v. Oilers -139 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
NHL North Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Edmonton over Calgary at 9:05 pm et on Friday. The Oilers are in a nice bounce-back spot at home on Friday night as they look to respond following a 4-0 loss in Montreal on Tuesday. Note that Edmonton is 26-12 after giving up four goals or more in its last game over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.7 goals per game in that spot. The Oilers are also 21-10 when coming off a loss by two goals or more over the last two seasons, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Calgary checks in a woeful 2-9 after losing a home game by three goals or more over the last three seasons, allowing 3.4 goals per game in that situation. The Flames have of course had a miserable time scoring with any consistency this season, particularly on the road where they average just 2.1 goals per game. Meanwhile, the Oilers average 3.5 goals per game on home ice and off a shutout loss will be eager to bounce back here at home before heading back on the road for three games in Montreal and Ottawa. Take Edmonton (10*). | |||||||
04-02-21 | Blues v. Avalanche OVER 5.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and Colorado at 9:05 pm et on Friday. This might be one of our last opportunities to play 'over' 5.5 goals in a game involving the Avs for a while given the way they've been performing lately. There's little reason to expect the Blues to knock them off stride here, noting that St. Louis has allowed 4.2 goals per game when revenging a loss where their opponent scored five goals or more over the last two seasons, as is the case here. Colorado is an excellent positive momentum play here having averaged a whopping 5.1 goals per game after winning its last two games by two goals or more this season, with that situation producing 7.4 total goals on average. The Avs are averaging an impressive 4.0 goals per game on home ice this season. Interestingly, St. Louis has been a better offensive team on the road than at home, scoring 3.1 goals per game. The Blues check in having scored just four goals combined over their last four games but have averaged a solid 3.3 goals per game when coming off an 'under' result over the last two seasons, and I wouldn't expect this offense to stay down for too long. Take the over (9*). | |||||||
04-01-21 | Warriors v. Heat -124 | 109-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami (moneyline) over Golden State at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. Miami's slump appears to be over as it returns home off consecutive low-scoring wins over the Knicks and Pacers on the road. While this isn't an ideal spot playing on back-to-back nights against a rested Warriors squad, I do look for the Heat to come through with the win. Rather than lay the points we'll back them on the moneyline here. Note that Miami has gone 8-2 SU when playing at home revenging a road loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by 8.4 points on average in that spot. Meanwhile, Golden State check in a miserable 1-7 SU when playing on the road after scoring 115+ points in its last game, outscored by 7.2 points per game in that situation. I like the fact that the Heat are finally getting some consistent production from Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson, both of whom had been slumping. After delivering a signature performance in a win over the Knicks earlier this week, Jimmy Butler took a bit of a backseat last night, contributing 18/5/4 in Miami's win over the Pacers. Look for him to take on a more significant role against Steph Curry and the Warriors tonight. Take Miami moneyline (10*). | |||||||
04-01-21 | Magic v. Pelicans OVER 220 | Top | 115-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Orlando and New Orleans at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. There's some question as to whether Zion Williamson will be able to play in this one after spraining his thumb on Monday night against Boston. While I do think there's a good chance he'll be on the floor with the Pelicans needing every win they can get in the playoff push, even if he can't go, I still like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair. We of course won with the Magic in Tuesday's upset win over the Clippers. We saw Orlando come into its own a little bit offensively in that one, scoring 66 second half points while getting a boost from the return of sharp-shooter Terrence Ross. Meanwhile, the Pelicans are coming off an upset win of their own, securing a 115-109 victory in Boston on Monday. That marked their third straight 'under' result. Note that the 'over' has gone a perfect 12-0 when the Pelicans come off an outright underdog win over the last two seasons with those contests totaling an average of 243.5 points. The 'over' has also gone 10-1 when the Pelicans play at home off an ATS victory this season with those games reaching an average total of 240.1 points. Meanwhile, the 'over' has gone 27-12 when the Magic play with the total set at 220 points or higher, as is the case here (at the time of writing). Take the over (10*). | |||||||
04-01-21 | Hurricanes -158 v. Blackhawks | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
NHL Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Carolina over Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. I like the way this one sets up for Carolina as it look to bounce back following a 2-1 loss to the Blackhawks here two nights ago. The Canes remain a solid road team this season, having gone 12-7, allowing just 2.7 goals per game in the process. Chicago is in a tough spot here, having gone a miserable 5-15 following a home win against a division opponent over the last three seasons, allowing 3.8 goals per game in that situation. Meanwhile, the Canes have allowed just 2.0 goals per game when playing on the road following a one-goal loss over the last two seasons. Carolina averages north of three goals per game on the road this season and is set up well here, noting that it averages exactly 3.0 goals per game after being held to a goal or less in its previous contest over the last three seasons, as is the case here. The Canes got a boost with the return of Victor Trocheck on Tuesday. He chipped in an assist, played more than 18 minutes and fired six shots on goal in the loss. Take Carolina (10*). | |||||||
04-01-21 | Hurricanes v. Blackhawks OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
NHL Central Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Carolina and Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. We saw a tightly-contested, low-scoring game between these two teams two nights ago at the United Center but I look for a much different story to unfold on Thursday. The Canes offense got a boost with the return of Victor Trocheck on Tuesday and he wasted no time contributing, chipping in with an assist on their lone goal in over 18 minutes played while also firing six shots on goal. Look for the Canes offense to get rewarded here on Thursday as they face a Blackhawks squad that has allowed a whopping 3.9 goals per game when playing at home after a one-goal victory over the last three seasons, with that situation producing 7.7 total goals on average with the 'over' cashing at a 12-3 clip. The 'over' has gone 25-13 when the Blackhawks play at home off a win over the last three seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 6.8 goals. Carolina averages 3.1 goals per game on the road this season and prior to Tuesday's game had been playing well, scoring 11 goals during a three-game winning streak. Note that Tuesday's 'under' result was the first of its kind in this series this season with the previous three meetings totaling 7, 10 and 8 goals. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
04-01-21 | Indians -181 v. Tigers | 2-3 | Loss | -181 | 16 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland over Detroit at 1:10 pm et on Thursday. This may appear to be a bit of a steep price in favor of the Indians but not when you consider how dominant defending A.L. Cy Young winner Shane Bieber has been in recent years. Cleveland yielded the A.L. Central crown to the Twins last year but should be right back in contention here in 2021. Bieber already appears to be in midseason form, wrapping up Spring Training by allowing just eight hits and one earned run while striking out 15 and walking only three in his final two starts, spanning 9 2/3 innings of work. Note that the Indians have outscored opponents by 1.3 runs per game when Bieber starts on the road with a total set between 7 and 8.5 over the course of his career. The Tigers have won just 22 of 84 games as a home underdog over the last three seasons, outscored by 2.7 runs per game in that situation. Thursday's starter Matt Boyd is coming off a rough 2020 campaign. He was given the nod here on Opening Day due to his willingness to work on improving during the offseason and his general work ethic according to Tigers new manager A.J. Hinch. Note that Boyd owns a career 4.41 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 12 career starts against the Indians. Take Cleveland (9*). | |||||||
03-31-21 | Wild v. Sharks UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 54 m | Show |
NHL West Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and San Jose at 10:35 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the 'over' in the front half of this two-game set between the Wild and Sharks on Monday night but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' on Wednesday. Minnesota has now been held to three goals or less in seven consecutive games and doesn't figure to break out of that scoring slump here, noting that it averages just 2.3 goals per game when revenging a one-goal loss against an opponent over the last three seasons. Likewise, the 'under' is 35-21 and the Wild average 2.3 goals per game when revenging a loss where their opponent scored four goals or more over the last three seasons, with those games totaling an average of 5.1 goals. Despite Monday's four-goal outburst, the Sharks are still averaging just 2.7 goals per game on home ice this season. They average just 2.2 goals per game when playing at home off a game where seven or more goals were scored over the last two seasons. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-31-21 | Coyotes v. Avalanche UNDER 5.5 | 3-9 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Colorado at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Avalanche have served 'over' bettors very well lately, posting a 7-1 o/u record over their last eight games. Likewise, the Coyotes have seen the 'over' cash in four of their last five contests overall. I look for a reversal of sorts here, however, as the Avs look for some revenge for a 5-4 loss in Arizona on March 23rd. Note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 6-0 when Colorado revenges a road loss against an opponent this season, giving up just 1.2 goals per game in that situation with an average total of just 4.0 goals scored. We've also seen the Avs allow just 2.0 goals per game when coming off a home win by two goals or more over the last two seasons. Meanwhile, Arizona has proven to be a streaky team offensively, noting it averages just 2.0 goals per game following an 'under' result this season, as is the case here. The 'under' has gone 34-17 when the Coyotes follow a game where four total goals or less were scored over the last three seasons, with those contests totaling an average of just 4.9 goals. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-31-21 | Jazz v. Grizzlies UNDER 230 | Top | 111-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. PLEASE NOTE: This total has dropped since it was made official that Donovan Mitchell will miss the game for the Jazz. I still like the play at the adjusted total. We've had a good read on Jazz totals lately, cashing with the 'over' in their win over the Grizzlies last Friday before hitting the 'under' in Monday's rout of the Cavs. Here, we'll stick with the 'under' as they head out on the road to face the Grizzlies for the third time in less than a week. If you follow my plays regularly you know that I'm a believe in familiarity lending itself to relatively low-scoring games, regardless the sport. While the two meetings between these two teams in Utah on Friday and Saturday both found their way 'over' the total, we're dealing with a higher number here (at the time of writing) and it's worth mentioning that three of their last four meetings in Memphis have stayed 'under' the total with the most recent meeting here totaling just 197 points. The Grizzlies check in averaging just 107 points per game after playing their last two games away from home over the last three seasons, with that situation producing an average total of just 215.1 points. It's interesting to note that the Grizzlies have actually been a higher-scoring team away from home compared to here in Memphis this season, where they average just 109.1 points per game. Not surprisingly, they've posted a 9-15 o/u record at home. The Jazz are absolutely locked in defensively right now, having held four of their last five opponents to 40.6% or worse shooting. The Grizzlies did sting them for 114 and 110 points in their two matchups last weekend but I would look for that situation to correct itself here, noting that the Jazz have allowed just 106.3 points per game when coming off a double-digit win this season. Look for the Jazz to conserve a little energy if they can in this one with a five-game in seven-night stretch beginning on Friday. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-31-21 | Flyers v. Sabres +1.5 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Buffalo +1.5 goals over Philadelphia at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. It's certainly not easy to back the Sabres these days and after Monday's embarrassing 3-0 blown lead (which eventually led to a 4-3 overtime loss) Buffalo-backers will be few and far between on Wednesday night. I'll grab the Sabres on the puck-line here, however, noting that they don't look like a team that's quit, holding third period leads in each of their last two games. In fact, Buffalo has only been outscored in two of its last six periods of hockey. Its last two games mark the first time it has gone without losing a game by multiple goals in a two-game stretch over the course of its entire 18-game skid. Let's face it, tonight's opponent the Philadelphia Flyers have their own issues right now. While they do enter this one off consecutive wins, you would have to go all the way back to February 28th to find the last time they won a game by two goals or more (right here in Buffalo oddly enough). Their two-game winning streak marks their longest since notching three consecutive wins from February 24th-28th. Note that the Flyers are have allowed 4.3 goals per game off a one-goal loss this season, outscored by 1.7 goals per game in that situation. They've also allowed a whopping 4.8 goals per game following a road game where both teams scored three goals or more over the last two seasons. The Sabres have been outscored by just 0.1 goals per game following a one-goal loss over the last two seasons. We certainly won't be taking many shots with the Sabres but in this spot, I believe a play is warranted. Take Buffalo +1.5 goals (10*). | |||||||
03-31-21 | Blazers v. Pistons +7 | Top | 124-101 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Portland at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. After an extended stay in Florida - a successful one at that - I think this might be a tough game for the Blazers to get up for on Wednesday night as they look to wrap up a perfect 4-0 eastern road swing. Portland has been a solid road team all season, going 14-9 SU and ATS, however it's been a dead heat in terms of scoring averages as it puts up 115.7 points per game while giving up, you guessed it, 115.7 points per game away from home. Also note that the Blazers have been outscored by an average margin of 3.8 points per game after winning four or five of their last six games over the last two seasons. They've also been outscored by 2.9 points per game on average when coming off an ATS win over the last two seasons. For their part, the Pistons have been a solid spread team at home this season, going 12-9 ATS, outscored by just 1.5 points per game on average. They check into tonight's game having gone a profitable 7-3 ATS over their last 10 games overall. Note that Detroit owns a stellar 17-7 ATS mark after losing four of its last five games this season, as is the case here, actually outscoring the opposition by 0.4 points per game in that situation. With Portland looking forward to getting back home to host Giannis and the Bucks on Friday, look for the Pistons to keep this one competitive on Wednesday. Take Detroit (10*). | |||||||
03-30-21 | Magic +11.5 v. Clippers | 103-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. Yes, the Magic cleared out over half of their starting five prior to the trade deadline last week but since then they've gone a perfect 2-0 ATS and now catch another favorable situation against the Clippers on Tuesday night. Los Angeles played through a number of key absences last night to rout the Bucks by 24 points. While the Clips have enjoyed tremendous success on the second of back-to-back nights this season, this is going to be an awfully tough one for them to get up for and when you factor in that they're also playing their third game in four nights, and off four consecutive double-digit wins, I can certainly see them taking a bit of a breather. The Magic have actually been outscored by just 1.9 points per game when coming off a road loss over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, the Clippers have outscored opponents by just 4.7 points on average when playing at home off an ATS win over the last three seasons. The Magic check in 29-16 ATS when playing on the road following four or five ATS wins in their last six games, as is the case here, outscored by just 2.1 points per game in that situation. Finally, Orlando could get a boost with the expected return of three-point specialist Terrence Ross on Tuesday as well. Take Orlando (10*). | |||||||
03-30-21 | UCLA v. Michigan UNDER 136 | Top | 51-49 | Win | 100 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
Elite Eight Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between UCLA and Michigan at 9:55 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'under' in Michigan's Sweet 16 victory over Florida State on Sunday in a game that only came close to approaching the total thanks to its lopsided nature. Here, I'm expecting a more tightly-contested affair and will go back to the well with the 'under' once again. UCLA certainly didn't enter this tournament looking like an elite defensive team but we have seen the Bruins round into form at that end of the floor over the last couple of games, holding Abilene Christian and Alabama to a combined 37.3% shooting. Michigan has shot the lights out in this tournament so far but I would anticipate some regression in that department on Tuesday. It's worth noting that the Wolverines entered this tournament ranked a less than impressive 175th in the nation in extra scoring chances per game. I like the fact that both of these teams should be able to run their offenses on Tuesday night, with neither defense overly disruptive. UCLA entered the tourney ranked 299th in the nation in steals per possession while Michigan checked in an ugly 331st in that department. Both teams prefer to work deep into the shot clock on offense, with UCLA entering the tournament ranked 288th nationally in possessions per game and Michigan checking in 259th. The Bruins were involved in a more up-tempo game against Alabama on Sunday, although that one still only managed to get to 130 points in regulation time. Michigan has scored 82, 86 and 76 points through three games in this tournament. Keep in mind, the Wolverines had scored fewer than 70 points in four of their last five games heading in. Look for a return to 'normal' here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-30-21 | USC v. Gonzaga -8 | Top | 66-85 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
Elite Eight Game of the Year. My selection is on Gonzaga minus the points over USC at 7:15 pm et on Tuesday. Credit USC for reaching the Elite Eight on the strength of some truly incredible shooting performances over the last couple of games. The Trojans shot better than 57% against both Kansas and Oregon and enter tonight's contest having shot 50% or better in four straight games going back to the Pac-12 Tournament earlier this month. Keep in mind, only once previously this season did the Trojans shoot better than 50% from the field in three consecutive games, and that took place right out of the gates in a stretch that saw them face the likes of Cal Baptist and Montana (along with a solid BYU squad). While USC has enjoyed an incredible run, I expect it to run out of magic here, and it's certainly worth noting that the Trojans have gone 0-7 ATS in their seven straight-up losses this season, losing four of those games by nine points or more. What more can be said about Gonzaga? They were the heavily favored to win this tournament at the outset for a reason and have only gotten better with each passing game. While the Bulldogs have shot better than 55% from the field in two of their three tournament games to date, that's only par for the course really, noting that their Round of 32 win over Oklahoma marked the first time since January 23rd that they shot worse than 50%. The Zags are tops in the nation in both offensive efficiency and floor percentage and play at a pace that should make the Trojans uncomfortable, noting that USC entered the tourney ranked north of 200 in terms of possessions per game. I don't expect USC to afford itself enough extra scoring opportunities to keep pace here, noting that it entered the tournament ranked 311th in steals per possessions, 123rd in turnovers per possession and 98th in extra scoring chances per game. By contrast, Gonzaga ranked 41st, 36th and 32nd in those three categories, respectively. Take Gonzaga (10*). | |||||||
03-30-21 | Blue Jackets v. Lightning UNDER 5.5 | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Columbus and Tampa Bay at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Blue Jackets simply aren't scoring right now, managing three goals or less in each of their last seven games and one goal or less in three of their last four. While the Lightning are known for their offense, they've been even sharper defensively here at home, where they allow just 2.0 goals per game on the season. Tampa Bay has reason to tighten things up here as it returns home off consecutive 4-3 losses in Dallas and Carolina. The loss in Carolina was particularly frustrating as it grabbed an early 2-0 lead before a disastrous second period that saw it give up three unanswered goals. While Lightning goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy has allowed four goals in back-to-back games that is largely due to Tampa giving up 40+ shots in those two contests. I'm confident we'll see a strong bounce-back performance from Vasilevskiy and the Lightning here. Note that Columbus has allowed just 1.6 goals per game after losing two or more games in a row on the road over the last three seasons, posting a 2-10 o/u record in that spot. Conversely, the Blue Jackets average just 2.1 goals per game when playing a third consecutive game on the road over the last two seasons, as is the case here, with the 'under' going 21-6 in that situation with an average of just 4.4 total goals scored. The Lightning average just 2.8 goals per game off consecutive 'over' results over the last two seasons, which is significant considering they average 3.7 goals per game overall this season. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-30-21 | Capitals v. Rangers UNDER 6 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
NHL Revenge Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and New York at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. These two teams combined to score nine goals thanks to a wild third period on Sunday in Washington (the Capitals led the game 3-0 entering the third period before hanging on for a 5-4 win). I expect a lower-scoring affair in Tuesday night's rematch in Manhattan. The Caps have now scored four goals or more in three straight games but should face a tough challenge keeping that streak alive here, noting that the Rangers have allowed just 2.3 goals on average following a loss this season and have given up just 2.1 goals per game in 14 situations coming off a game where 9+ goals were scored over the last three seasons. Keep in mind, they held the Caps to just three goals combined in splitting a two-game set in Washington a couple of weeks ago. The Capitals will be venturing out on the road for the first time since March 15th. They boosted their scoring average away from home thanks to their last four road games coming against two of the league's worst defensive teams in Philadelphia and Buffalo. Here, they'll face a Rangers squad that allows just 2.7 goals per game on home ice this season. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-29-21 | Wild v. Sharks OVER 5.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and San Jose at 10:35 pm et on Monday. While both of these teams are coming off relatively low-scoring affairs last time out I'm expecting a different story to unfold on Monday night in San Jose. The Wild are coming off a perfect 3-0 homestand that also saw the 'under' go a perfect 3-0. They shut out the Blues 2-0 the last time they took the ice on Thursday. Note that the road hasn't been quite as kind to Minnesota this season as it has allowed 3.0 goals per game in a visitors role. I'll also point to the fact that the 'over' is a perfect 6-0 when the Wild come off six or seven wins in their last eight games this season, allowing a whopping 4.5 goals per game in that spot with those contests totaling an average of 6.7 goals. The Sharks couldn't keep the positive momentum building off consecutive home wins over the rival Kings, dropping back-to-back games in Arizona on Friday and Saturday. They were held off the scoreboard entirely in Saturday's 4-0 drubbing but I do expect a solid bounce-back performance here. Note that San Jose is averaging 3.4 goals per game following an 'under' result over the last three seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 6.5 goals. Playing at home off a shutout loss, the Sharks have averaged 3.3 goals per game in the long-term picture, with the 'over' cashing at a 41-21 clip. The three previous meetings between these two teams this season have averaged 7.0 goals. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
03-29-21 | Jets +102 v. Flames | Top | 5-1 | Win | 102 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
NHL Game of the Month. My selection is on Winnipeg over Calgary at 10:05 pm et on Monday. The Jets have been a tremendous bounce-back team all season long and after cashing with the Flames in Saturday night's virtual must-win game, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back Winnipeg in Monday's finale of a three-game set here in Calgary. Winnipeg remains a winning team on the road this season, having gone 11-8, outscoring opponents by 0.3 goals per game. While the Jets are a solid 9-3 when revenging a loss of any kind this season, they're even better revenging a loss where they allowed four goals or more, going 7-1, outscoring the opposition by 1.4 goals per game in that spot. Meanwhile, the Flames are a miserable 1-7 after scoring four or more goals in a game this season, outscored by 2.0 goals per game while managing just 1.8 goals on average in that situation. Also note that Calgary has allowed 3.8 goals per game when playing at home off a division win over the last three seasons. I mentioned that Saturday's game was a virtual must-win for Calgary on the heels of four straight losses. The fact that the Flames managed to win that game only leaves them in a clear letdown spot against what I would consider a superior Jets squad that will be motivated to wrap up their seven-game road trip with a winning record. Take Winnipeg (10*). | |||||||
03-29-21 | Arkansas v. Baylor -7.5 | 72-81 | Win | 100 | 14 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baylor minus the points over Arkansas at 9:55 pm et on Monday. A lot of folks were obviously down on Baylor entering this tournament after it sleepwalked its way to an early exit in the Big 12 Tournament a week earlier. Even in the Bears NCAA Tournament opener against Hartford (and subsequently in the first half of their second game against Wisconsin) we saw some rather uninspired basketball. However, over their last 60 minutes played, the Bears have turned it on and have left the opposition in the dust. I expect to see continued progression from Baylor on Monday as it takes on Arkansas. It's worth noting that the Bears will be playing just their second game in the last eight days here on Monday as it's a spot they've absolutely thrived in over the last couple of seasons, allowing an average of just 57.2 points per game and outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 17.3 points (going 13-5 ATS in those games). I'll also points out that Baylor has gone 14-5 ATS, outscoring opponents by 10.1 points per game when playing away from home off of three straight wins, as is the case here. Despite winning all three tournament games to this point, there's still plenty of room for improvement when it comes to the Bears as they've actually been outrebounded by two over their last two contests and have yet to shoot better than 45.5% from the field in the tourney to date. Keep in mind, we're talking about a Baylor squad that ranked second in the nation in offensive efficiency and third in floor percentage not to mention a respectable 44th in total rebounding percentage heading into the tournament. Arkansas obviously wants to play at a fast pace but I'm not sure that will serve it well in this particular matchup. Baylor certainly has the athleticism to counteract the Hogs in transition and ultimately afford itself extra possessions, noting that the Bears are a top-10 team in extra scoring chances per game this season. Take Baylor (10*). | |||||||
03-29-21 | Arkansas v. Baylor UNDER 148.5 | 72-81 | Loss | -113 | 14 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arkansas and Baylor at 9:55 pm et on Monday. The potential is obviously there for this to turn into a track meet on Monday night but that's ultimately been factored into the total. I like what both teams bring to the table defensively and with a spot in the Final Four hanging in the balance, look for points to come at a premium in this one (relatively speaking, of course). Note that Baylor has allowed just north of 57 points per game when playing for just the second time in eight days over the last two seasons. Saturday's win over Villanova wasn't overly taxing on the Bears as far as I'm concerned and I expect them to be extremely active at the defensive end of the floor in this one, noting that they entered the tournament ranked an impressive seventh in the nation in steals per possession and top-75 in block percentage. For Arkansas' part, it has been a top-25 team in terms of opponents floor percentage this season and top-65 in opponents effective field goal percentage. After a loosely-played affair that featured 138 combined field goal attempts against Oral Roberts, look for this game to take on a more defensive tone. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-29-21 | Cavs v. Jazz UNDER 222 | 75-114 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Utah at 9:10 pm et on Monday. This is obviously a game that the Jazz can all but circle as a win as they look for their 20th victory at home on Monday night. While I'm not interested in laying the boatload of points in a spot where Utah should be able to name its score, I will call for a lower-scoring game than betting marketplace is accounting for. Note that the Cavs are averaging just north of 98 points per game on the road this season and don't figure to bust out against one of the league's best defensive teams statistically speaking. Jarrett Allen was becoming a big part of what the Cavs do offensively, scoring in double-figures in five straight games before going down with a concussion against the Lakers on Friday. He won't play on Monday. While Utah is coming off consecutive high-scoring 'over' results against Memphis (we won with the 'over' in Friday's game), the Jazz are actually locked in defensively right now, having held four straight opponents to 45.4% or lower shooting, limiting three of those opponents to 40.6% or worse. Again, the Cavs don't figure to be the team to throw the Jazz off course. Utah did shoot 50% from the field in Saturday's win over the Grizzlies, but that only served to snap a skid of 10 straight games shooting worse than 49%. It's certainly something worth noting should the pace slow a bit in this one once the Jazz are able to build a sizeable lead. The 'under' has gone 57-39 when the Jazz host non-conference opponents under the guidance of head coach Quin Snyder, with those games totaling just 202.1 points on average. Likewise, the 'under' is 87-64 when the Jazz play at home off a win under Snyder, with those contests reaching an average of 202.9 total points. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-29-21 | Oregon State v. Houston -7.5 | 61-67 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston minus the points over Oregon State at 7:15 pm et on Monday. Oregon State has enjoyed a run for the ages going back to the Pac-12 Tournament and now finds itself just one win away from an improbable Final Four appearance. I believe the clock is about to strike midnight on this Cinderella team on Monday, however, as the Beavers run into a dominant Cougars squad. Houston entered this tournament checking all the boxes and we cashed a ticket with the Cougars in their opening round rout of Cleveland State. While I haven't gone back to the well with them since, I will get behind them here. Keep in mind, Houston checked into this tournament ranked top-five in the nation in offensive efficiency and top-12 in floor percentage. The list goes on and on; ninth in total rebounding percentage, 16th in steals per possession, ninth in block percentage, seventh in opponents floor percentage, first in opponents effective field goal percentage, first in extra scoring chances per game - you get the picture. In start contrast, Oregon State ranked outside the top-100 in both offensive efficiency and floor percentage, 189th in total rebounding percentage, 274th in opponents effective field goal percentage and a truly miserable 298th in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage. That really helps illustrate just how improbable the Beavers run has been as they've taken down some elite opponents. We know that Oregon State likes to play at a slow pace but so does Houston. The Cougars have consistently done it better, however. If the Beavers didn't have everyone's attention prior to Saturday's dominant victory over Loyola-Chicago, they do now. I don't think they'll catch Houston napping the same way they did against the Ramblers. Loyola's downfall could very well have been its hot start as it jumped out to a big early lead and probably thought it would cruise from there. The Beavers took advantage of the Ramblers complacency - again something that isn't likely to happen here. Take Houston (10*). | |||||||
03-29-21 | Pacers v. Wizards +5 | Top | 124-132 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Indiana at 7:10 pm et on Monday. We saw this line open a little higher than expected with Bradley Beal questionable to play after exiting with a hip injury on Saturday. I would operate under the assumption that Beal won't play on Monday - should he be able to go that will serve as an added bonus. I like the spot for the Wizards regardless. There's no question this is a tough spot for the Pacers to get up for as they look ahead to a pair of much tougher home games against the Heat and Hornets later this week. Washington is coming off a 14-point rout of Detroit on Saturday night, shooting better than 46% from the field for a seventh consecutive game while holding the opposition to under 39% shooting for the second straight contest. While Washington is thought of as an Eastern Conference doormat, it has held its own here at home this season, going 11-12 ATS while being outscored by less than four points per game. The Pacers are outscoring opponents by just 0.6 points per game on the road this season. Indiana checks in off consecutive victories over the Pistons and Mavs but it's certainly worth noting that Dallas was without Luka Doncic in the latter contest. The Pacers check into a miserable spot here having gone a woeful 1-11 ATS after scoring 105 points or more in five straight games this season, outscored by six points per game in that situation. Meanwhile, the Wizards average an impressive 122.9 points per game playing at home off an ATS win this season, outscored by just 0.9 points on average in that spot. The Pacers are averaging 113 points per game overall this season but that average drops to 108.1 ppg when coming off a win over the last three seasons. Take Washington (10*). | |||||||
03-29-21 | Oilers v. Maple Leafs UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 21 h 23 m | Show |
NHL North Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Edmonton and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The front half of this two-game set found its way 'over' the total no Saturday night as the Leafs delivered a 4-3 victory on home ice. I see value with the 'under' on Monday, however. While both teams are known for their offenses, both have also proven capable defensively, with Edmonton allowing just 2.7 goals per game on the road and Toronto giving up 2.6 goals per game on home ice. Note that the 'under' has gone 13-4 when the Oilers play on the road off a road game where both teams scored at least three goals over the last two seasons, as is the case here, with those games producing an average total of 5.3 goals. The 'under' has also gone 50-29 when the Oilers come off a game where there were seven or more goals scored over the last three seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 5.8 goals. Edmonton has generally been a solid bounce-back play on the road, giving up just 2.3 goals per game when playing away from home off a loss over the last two seasons. Meanwhile, Toronto averages only 2.3 goals per game coming off a one-goal win at home over the last two seasons. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-29-21 | Islanders v. Penguins UNDER 5.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Monday. While the Islanders have managed to take four of a possible six points on their current road trip, head coach Barry Trotz can't be happy with his team's performance over the last two games as they've given up a whopping nine goals, including a 6-3 loss to these same Penguins on Saturday. That sets us up well to play the 'under' in Monday's rematch, noting that the 'under' is 11-3 when the Isles play on the road revenging a loss by two goals or more against an opponent over the last two seasons, with those games totaling just 4.8 goals on average. Also note that New York has allowed just 1.6 goals per game after allowing three goals or more in consecutive games this season, with the 'under' going 9-2 in that spot and those contests totaling an average of just 4.1 goals. For their part, the Pens have posted an 0-6 o/u record when playing at home off three straight wins by multiple goals, as is the case here. That situation, albeit with a small sample size, has produced an average of just 4.1 total goals. Finally, the Isles check in having given up a minuscule 0.8 goals per game when coming off consecutive 'over' results this season. That situation has only come up six times with the 'under' going a perfect 6-0. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-28-21 | Oregon v. USC UNDER 138 | 68-82 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Oregon and USC at 9:45 pm et on Sunday. When these teams met during the Pac-12 regular season they combined to score only 130 points and I anticipate more of the same here with a lot more to play for in the Sweet 16. While the Ducks put up a whopping 95 points in an extremely high-scoring affair against Iowa last time out, note that Oregon checks in 262nd in the nation in possessions per game and won't have much interest in a track meet here. Likewise, USC ranks north of 200th in the country in possessions per game and should be comfortable playing this one in the 50's or 60's. I like the disruptive nature of both defenses, with USC in particular being stingy around the basket, ranking an impressive 11th in the country in block percentage. The Trojans will let Oregon run its offense here, likely deep into the shot clock on most possessions, noting that USC ranks 316th in steals per possession. Conversely, while Oregon sits just inside the top-90 in block percentage, it ranks 45th in steals per possession. But again, what it does with those extra possessions should support our cause with the 'under' as the Ducks don't generally look to push the pace. Note that USC allows just 64.5 points per game playing away from home off a double-digit win over the last two seasons while Oregon gives up 64.2 ppg after an ATS win over the last three seasons. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-28-21 | Panthers v. Stars UNDER 5.5 | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Florida and Dallas at 6:05 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Panthers last night as they pulled out an overtime victory to snap their three-game losing streak. Here, I'll switch gears and back the 'under' as I anticipate a low-scoring affair in Big D. While Florida does average an impressive 3.6 goals per game on the road this season it remains undermanned with Sasha Barkov unlikely to return to the lineup on Sunday and Patric Hornqvist sidelined for an extended period. Note that the Stars have given up just 2.3 goals per game when coming off a loss against a division opponent over the last three seasons with those games totaling an average of just 4.8 goals. On the flip side, the Stars average just 2.1 goals per game following consecutive contests where both teams scored three or more goals over the last two seasons, as is the case here. Prior to last night's contest, the first three meetings between these two teams this season all produced five goals or less. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-28-21 | Florida State v. Michigan UNDER 143.5 | 58-76 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Florida State and Michigan at 5 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'under' in Florida State's blowout win over Colorado in the Round of 32 and I won't hesitate to go back the well with the same play here as the Seminoles challenge top-seeded Michigan on Sunday afternoon. This game will pit two elite defensive teams with Michigan ranking sixth in the nation in opponents effective field goal percentage and third in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage. Florida State is a top-20 team in opponents effective field goal percentage and a very respectable 48th in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage this season. Both teams also rank inside the top-60 in opponents floor percentage. We'll see a contrast in styles here as Michigan will look to use most of the shot clock as it checks in 245th in the country in possessions per game while Florida State will undoubtedly try to speed things up, ranking 132nd in that category. I do believe both teams will be able to run their offenses without a great deal of disruption. Note in particular that Michigan ranks a woeful 337th in the nation in steals per possession this season. That's beneficial to Florida State given it doesn't always take great care of the basketball, ranking 251st in the nation in turnovers per possession. While I have a lot of respect for both of these offenses, I simply feel this total will prove too high. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-28-21 | Suns v. Hornets OVER 220.5 | Top | 101-97 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 19 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Phoenix and Charlotte at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. Phoenix is coming off a low-scoring victory over the Raptors in Tampa on Friday, prevailing by a 104-100 score. The 'under' is now 4-1 in the Suns last five games overall. Meanwhile, the Hornets posted an 'over' result in Friday's win over the Heat. Still, the 'under' has gone 4-1 in their last five contests. Here, I'm anticipating a reversal of sorts as far as the recent 'under' trend goes for both teams. Note that the 'over' is 18-7 when the Suns have won four of their last five games over the last two seasons with those contests totaling an average of 228.1 points. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 8-1 when the Hornets come off three ATS wins in their last four games this season, with those games totaling 228.4 points on average. The first meeting between these two teams took place back on February 24th in Phoenix and totaled a whopping 245 points. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
03-28-21 | Mississippi State v. Memphis UNDER 135.5 | 64-77 | Loss | -103 | 4 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Mississippi State and Memphis at 12 noon et on Sunday. Both of these teams overwhelmed their opponents in yesterday's NIT matchups with Memphis scoring 90 points and Mississippi State putting up 84 points in blowout victories. Here, I'm anticipating a much lower-scoring affair. While the Bulldogs shot 56% from the field including 50% from beyond the arc yesterday, they can go cold just as quickly as they get hot, noting they've been held to fewer than 60 points on eight different occasions this season. Here, they'll be up against an elite Memphis defense that has only allowed one opponent to break 70 points since the beginning of March - that being Elite Eight-bound Houston. The Tigers also shot a blistering 56% from the field yesterday including 52% from beyond the arc but will have to deal with a Mississippi State defense that ranks 34th in the nation in block percentage. Also note that the Bulldogs do an excellent job cleaning up on the glass, ranking 12th in the country in total rebounding percentage. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-27-21 | Jets v. Flames -125 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
NHL North Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Calgary over Winnipeg at 10:05 pm et on Saturday. The Flames fell short again last night, falling by a 3-2 score against the Jets - their fourth consecutive loss. Calgary did manage to score two goals in the third period which is at least a positive for them to hang its hat on entering Saturday's rematch with Winnipeg. While the Flames are down right now, I'm not about to write them off, especially here on home ice where they're still a winning team on the season and average north of three goals per game. They've also still taken 13 of the last 17 meetings with the Jets here in Calgary. With Winnipeg having taken four of six meetings this season, there's even more motivation for the Flames to get back on track on Saturday. Take Calgary (10*). | |||||||
03-27-21 | Mavs v. Pelicans OVER 229.5 | 103-112 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and New Orleans at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. There's still some uncertainty as to whether Luka Doncic will play on Saturday night after missing last night's home game against the Pacers due to tightness in his back. That was more of a maintenance-related absence than anything else as far as I'm concerned and I expect to see Luka back on the floor in this second of back-to-backs for the Mavs. New Orleans played last night as well, suffering a home loss against the Nuggets. With both teams coming off subpar offensive showings last night I expect to see both bounce back with big performances on Saturday. Note that the 'over' has gone 12-2 when the Pelicans revenge a road loss against an opponent this season, with those games totaling 237.1 points on average. They've also posted a 16-6 o/u record after winning five or six of their last seven games ATS over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 239.7 points. The lone previous meeting between these two teams this season totaled a whopping 273 points. When they met last March they combined to score 250 points. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
03-27-21 | Pistons v. Wizards UNDER 225.5 | Top | 92-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Washington at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams have been generally trending to the 'under' lately even though the Pistons are coming off consecutive 'over' results (the 'under' is 5-3 in their last eight games). I'm not anticipating a track meet as the Pistons and Wizards match up for the first time this season on Saturday. Note that Detroit averages a miserable 95.1 points per game when coming off six or seven ATS wins in their last eight games over the last three seasons, with those games totaling just 206.2 points on average. They also average just 104.4 points per game - below their current season scoring average of 107.3 ppg - after scoring 110 points or more in consecutive games over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 217.6 points. Washington isn't in top form offensively, having scored 113 points or less in three straight games. I'm not sure how easy it will be for the Wizards to get up for this matchup with the lowly Pistons on Saturday night. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-27-21 | Panthers +100 v. Stars | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Florida over Dallas at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. The Panthers are reeling right now, fresh off three straight losses and dealing with a couple of key injuries to Sasha Barkov and Patric Hornqvist. With that being said, I do look for them to bounce back on Saturday night as they put a disappointing start to their current road trip behind them with a convincing victory. Florida was competitive in last Sunday's 5-3 loss in Tampa (we won with the Lightning in that game) before getting stymied in consecutive low-scoring losses in Chicago. A change of scenery should be a positive thing as the Panthers head to Dallas on Saturday, where the Stars are just 7-10 on the season and in line for a letdown off a come-from-behind win over the first-place Lightning two nights ago. Note that the Panthers average a whopping 5.0 goals per game and outscore the opposition by an average margin of 1.4 goals after scoring one goal or less in their last game over the last two seasons, as is the case here. Take Florida (10*). | |||||||
03-27-21 | Oral Roberts v. Arkansas OVER 159 | Top | 70-72 | Loss | -108 | 34 h 21 m | Show |
CBB Sweet 16 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Oral Roberts and Arkansas at 7:25 pm et on Saturday. This will be the second meeting between these two schools this season with Arkansas cruising to a 87-76 victory back on December 20th. Here on Saturday, I believe the Razorbacks scoring 100 or more points is well within the realm of possibility - a bold prediction, I know, but the situation sets up well for a track meet between these two up-tempo teams. Oral Roberts entered this tournament ranked a miserable 292nd in the nation in opponents floor percentage and 187th in opponents effective field goal percentage. The Golden Eagles have rode their offense to consecutive upset victories over Ohio State and Florida to reach the Sweet 16 but now face a whole other sort of challenge, as they're well aware of after running into the Hogs during the regular season. I don't expect ORU to shy away from its regular gameplan here, as it entered the tourney ranked 42nd in the nation in possessions per game. That of course plays right into the hands of an Arkansas team that likes to play at a break-neck pace, entering the tournament ranked 12th in possessions per game. There's little reason to believe the Golden Eagles can offer much defensive resistance here as they rank north of 200th in the country in steals per possession and do an awful job rebounding, checking in north of 300th in total rebounding percentage. The hope for ORU here is that Arkansas gets a little carried away running the floor and lacks a bit of focus at the defensive end of the floor. After getting bogged down in a narrow win over defensive-minded Texas Tech, the Hogs will certainly welcome the opportunity to get loose in this one but it may come at the expense of their own defense. Either way, much like the regular season matchup did, I'm confident this one finds its way 'over' the lofty but not unreasonable posted total, noting that Arkansas averages a whopping 93.8 points per game when the total is set between 150 and 159.5 this season, with those contests totaling an average of 167.2 points. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
03-27-21 | Mississippi State v. Louisiana Tech +1 | Top | 84-62 | Loss | -112 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
NIT Game of the Year. My selection is on Louisiana Tech plus the points over Mississippi State at 3 pm et on Saturday. Most bettors will likely back Mississippi State by default at virtually a pk'em price in this one as it comes from a power conference in the SEC while Louisiana Tech is out of the far less respected C-USA. I like the Bulldogs' (La. Tech) chances of staging the minor upset, however, as they come in playing some of their best basketball of the season and match up well here. It's worth noting that Louisiana Tech ranks an impressive eighth in the nation in opponents floor percentage and 11th in opponents effective field goal percentage this season. While Mississippi State has the better offense, I do think that Louisiana Tech, which comes in having scored 70+ points in six of its last seven games, can hang. Note that Mississippi State ranks just 161st in the country in steals per possession and conversely, ranks a miserable 319th in turnovers per possession on offense. With Mississippi State ranking 248th in the country in possessions per game, it isn't going to overwhelm Louisiana Tech with its pace here either. Louisiana State checks in as a positive momentum play having gone 10-1 ATS after allowing 65 points or less in consecutive games this season, outscoring opponents by 14.6 points per game in that situation. Meanwhile, Mississippi State is just 1-9 ATS following a close victory by six points or less over the last two seasons, outscored by 5.1 points per game in that spot. Take Louisiana Tech (10*). | |||||||
03-27-21 | Oregon State v. Loyola-Chicago -6.5 | Top | 65-58 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 54 m | Show |
CBB Sweet 16 Game of the Year. My selection is on Loyola-Chicago minus the points over Oregon State at 2:40 pm et on Saturday. We won one of our big ticket plays backing Oregon State in its win over Oklahoma State last round but I won't hesitate to switch gears and go against the Beavers here as they go up against Loyola-Chicago in the Sweet 16. The Ramblers are by no means a 'Cinderella' team. They've turned in a tremendous season so far, winning 26 of 30 games, leaning on their wealth of talent and experience to reach the Sweet 16, even if few gave them a chance against Illinois last Sunday. This is a team that is certainly comfortable being in the 'favorite' role, having been the front-runner in the Missouri Valley Conference for much of the season. If any team is going to suffer a letdown here, it's not going to be the Ramblers off the upset win over one-seed Illinois, instead I feel that Oregon State might have a tough time getting its emotions running as high as it did against 'name' programs like Tennessee and Oklahoma State in the first two rounds of this tournament. The Beavers are undoubtedly deserving of respect as they've gotten hot at the right time, parlaying a Pac-12 Tournament championship run into two victories here in the NCAA Tournament. However, let's not lose sight of the fact that this is a team that entered the tourney ranked 274th in the nation in opponents floor percentage and 190th in opponents effective field goal percentage, not to mention its dreadful 298th ranking in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage. Like Loyola-Chicago, Oregon State plays at a slow pace, ranking 316th in the country in possessions per game. But the Ramblers do it much better, entering the tournament ranked 26th in the country in offensive efficiency and 25th in floor percentage. By contrast, the Beavers sat outside of the top-100 in both of those categories. The Pac-12 is being given plenty of respect now with four teams reaching the Sweet 16. However, noting that Loyola-Chicago has gone 10-3 ATS when playing away from home off three or more consecutive wins this season, outscoring the opposition by 13.1 points on average, while also going 15-4 ATS off a double-digit victory, outscoring opponents by 16.8 points per game in that situation, I'll gladly back the Ramblers laying a relatively short number here. Take Loyola-Chicago (10*). | |||||||
03-26-21 | Sharks +105 v. Coyotes | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 32 m | Show |
NHL Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on San Jose over Arizona at 10:05 pm et on Friday. We have a pretty good feel for the Sharks right now, having been involved in three of their last six games, winning on consecutive occasions with them on the puck-line in Las Vegas before cashing a big play on the 'over' in their most recent contest at home against the Kings. Here, I'll back them again as they continue to play reasonably well and push toward a playoff spot in the West Division. Of course, it's going to be an uphill battle as San Jose currently sits seven points back of the fourth-place Blues but does have two games in hand. Tonight's opponent is another team San Jose is currently looking up at in the standings. Arizona checks in off a thrilling 5-4 overtime win over the Avalanche on Tuesday. Keep in mind, Colorado elected to go with Jonas Johansson in goal for that game - he was an acquisition from the Sabres last week and has been generally awful this season. Now the Coyotes are in a tough spot having gone 3-18 following a one-goal victory over the last two seasons, outscored by 1.4 goals on average in that situation. Off an overtime win over the last two seasons, Arizona has gone a miserable 1-9, losing those contests by an average margin of 1.7 goals. Meanwhile, the Sharks are 7-3 revenging a road loss against an opponent this season, outscoring opponents by 0.6 goals per game on average. Despite its overall losing record, San Jose has also gone a solid 9-5 after losing four or five of its last six contests this season, averaging 3.5 goals per game in that situation. The Sharks have managed to hold their own here in Glendale in recent years, splitting the last six meetings, including a 1-1 split earlier this season where they won the front-half. Take San Jose (10*). | |||||||
03-26-21 | Jets v. Flames OVER 5.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -119 | 15 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Winnipeg and Calgary at 10:05 pm et on Friday. The Flames ran into a wall offensively on their most recent road trip, scoring just two goals over their last three games in Toronto and Ottawa after opening the trip with a four-goal outburst against the Leafs. At the face of it, scoring two goals in two games against the Senators looks awful. However, the Sens have been doing a much better job of keeping the puck out of their net, clearly placing a major emphasis on playing sound defense during their homestand. Just ask the Leafs, who scored just two goals in regulation time before escaping with an overtime win in Ottawa last night. Now Calgary finally returns home, where it averages 3.3 goals per game this season. It catches the Jets in a favorable situation here, noting that Winnipeg has allowed 3.9 goals per game when coming off a division road win over the last two seasons, with the 'over' going 12-2 in that situation, and those games averaging 7.3 total goals. Winnipeg has also allowed 3.7 goals per game following a win by four goals or more over the last three seasons, as is the case here following Wednesday's 5-1 win. The Jets have been one of the best offensive teams on the road this season, averaging 3.2 goals per game in enemy territory. Winnipeg averages 3.5 goals per game when revenging a loss against an opponent this season, with those games totaling just north of six goals on average. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
03-26-21 | Grizzlies v. Jazz OVER 228 | Top | 114-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Memphis and Utah at 9:10 pm et on Friday. As the total suggests, I'm anticipating a high-scoring affair between the Grizzlies and Jazz in Salt Lake City on Friday night. The Grizzlies have been a different team on the road compared to at home this season, averaging 3.4 points per game above their season scoring average in a visitors' role. Not surprisingly, the 'over' has cashed at a 9-7-1 clip when they play on the road compared to a 9-15 o/u mark at home. They enter this game off three consecutive ATS victories which sets up well for the 'over', noting that it has gone 12-3 when Memphis plays after consecutive ATS wins over the last two seasons, with those games totaling an average of 234.7 points. Of course, Utah boasts one of the most efficient offenses in the league. Even during a recent hiccup, the Jazz still continued to rack up the points and check into this one having scored 114 points or more in 13 straight games. That's even more impressive considering eight of those 13 games were played on the road. Here at home, Utah averages 117.8 points per game. It's worth noting that the Grizzlies have allowed 119.8 ppg as an underdog of between 6.5 and 12 points over the last two seasons. The last two meetings between these two teams have produced 238 and 239 total points. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
03-26-21 | Nets -5.5 v. Pistons | Top | 113-111 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
NBA Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on Brooklyn minus the points over Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Friday. We've made a habit of fading the Nets over the last week or so, cashing tickets against them with the underdog Magic last Friday night and the favored Jazz in what turned out to be a monster blowout on Wednesday. Here, I'll switch gears and back the Nets as they stay on the road to face the Pistons in Detroit on Friday. Brooklyn obviously has injury concerns but I would expect it to have James Harden back on the floor for Friday's game. According to head coach Steve Nash it sounded like Harden could have played on Wednesday in Utah but the team essentially treated that as a throw-away game on the second of back-to-back nights off a win in Portland on Tuesday. The Pistons check in off an ATS win in Indiana on Wednesday but that sets them up poorly here, noting they've gone 17-31 ATS off an ATS victory over the last two seasons, outscored by 6.5 points per game in that situation. Having dropped their last meeting with the Nets after staging an upset in their first matchup, I'll point out that they're 26-41 ATS when revenging a same-season loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 6.2 points in those contests. Take Brooklyn (10*). | |||||||
03-25-21 | Golden Knights v. Avalanche -178 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
NHL West Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Colorado over Vegas at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. I like the way this one sets up for the Avalanche coming off a disappointing shootout loss in Arizona two nights ago. Colorado went with newly-acquired and struggling goaltender Jonas Johansson in that game, giving Philipp Grubauer a much-deserved night off. Grubauer should be back in goal on Thursday, noting that he has allowed just three goals on the last 137 shots he has faced. The Avs are also back on home ice for this one, where they've gone 11-5 this season, outscoring opponents by 1.6 goals per game. Of course, Colorado will also be looking for revenge after suffering a 3-0 loss against the Knights here in Denver back on February 22nd. We actually won with Vegas in that spot, expecting a clear letdown from the Avs off their outdoor game victory over the Knights two days earlier. Colorado has gone a perfect 9-0 revenging a same-season loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by an incredible 2.9-goal margin in those contests. The Avs are also a solid 23-9 after allowing four goals or more in their last game over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.8 goals on average in that situation. Vegas averages just 2.7 goals per game after winning two of its last three games over the last two seasons and I don't believe it will have enough to get past the Avs in the first of this two-game set on Thursday night. Take Colorado (10*). | |||||||
03-25-21 | Boise State v. Memphis UNDER 143 | 56-59 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boise State and Memphis at 9 pm et on Thursday. Boise State has given up 80+ points in back-to-back games which I don't think speaks to the identity or quality of this Broncos team. Meanwhile, Memphis has been playing like an elite defensive team for weeks and does match up well with the Boise offense here. Note that the 'under' is 9-2 when Memphis checks in playing away from home off consecutive ATS wins over the last two seasons, with those games totaling an average of just 128.9 points. The Tigers have allowed just 62 points per game in lined contests as a favorite this season. Meanwhile, Boise State has allowed just 67 points per game after scoring 80 points or more in its previous game over the last three seasons. Here, the Broncos will run into a Memphis squad that ranks top-three in the nation in opponents floor percentage this season. The Tigers also rank eighth in the country in steals per possession and 15th in block percentage. Boise State is what I would consider a 'tough out', however, noting that the Broncos do rank a respectable 63rd in the nation in defensive efficiency and 60th in turnovers per possession on offense. I'm not expecting a third straight track meet for Boise here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-25-21 | Panthers -123 v. Blackhawks | 0-3 | Loss | -123 | 23 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Florida over Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the Panthers as they look to snap their mini two-game skid on Thursday night in Chicago. We actually won with the Blackhawks in the front half of this two-game set as they skated to a 3-2 victory. Now Florida is set up well to respond favorably, noting it has allowed just 1.9 goals per game when on the road coming off a one-goal loss against a division opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 0.9 goals in that situation, which has come up on 10 previous occasions. Meanwhile, Chicago is giving up a whopping 4.2 goals per game when playing on home ice following a one-goal victory over the last three seasons. The Panthers are 15-5 coming off a road loss over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.9 goals per game in that situation. No Sasha Barkov for the Panthers again on Thursday but they have enough depth to pick up the slack. Take Florida (10*). | |||||||
03-25-21 | Red Wings v. Predators UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
NHL Central Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Nashville at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'under' in this matchup two nights ago and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Thursday. Detroit has been shutout in each of its last two games and checks in averaging a miserable 2.0 goals per game on the road this season. There's little reason to anticipate much progression here, noting that Detroit averages just 1.7 goals per game when playing on the road off a road loss over the last two seasons and 1.9 goals per game when revenging a road loss by two goals or more against an opponent over the same period. While the Wings are by no means a good defensive team, the Predators aren't likely to run it up on them, noting that Nashville averages only 2.5 goals per game on home ice this season and has scored more than three goals in regulation time just once in its last eight games. It's worth noting that Nashville averages just 2.2 goals per game after winning four of its last five games over the last two seasons, as is the case here. We've seen the 'under' cash in three of the last five meetings between these two teams in Nashville. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-25-21 | Blazers v. Heat UNDER 220 | Top | 125-122 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Portland and Miami at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. The Heat have gone ice cold offensively over the course of a four-game losing streak which seemingly came out of nowhere. If Miami is going to snap its skid on Thursday night, I believe it will have to lean on its defense, which has the potential to be one of the best units in the league. Note that Miami checks in having allowed just 106.8 points per game when coming off an ATS loss over the last three seasons, with those games totaling an average of 217.5 points. The Heat have been a positive momentum play from a defensive standpoint, having allowed just 104.3 points per game after consecutive 'under' results, with those contests totaling an average of just 213.6 points. Meanwhile, the Blazers have given up 109.9 points per game after allowing 110 points or more in three straight games over the last three seasons. That's not an impressive number on the face of it, but when you consider they give up an average of 115.5 points per game overall this season, it's worth noting. The 'under' has gone 19-7 in that situation over the last three seasons. It seems that outside of a 50-point outburst against New Orleans last week, Damian Lillard has been a little off his game since C.J. McCollum returned to the Blazers lineup. Expect some carry-over in the face of a tough defensive challenge against what should be a desperate Heat squad tonight. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-25-21 | Hurricanes v. Blue Jackets UNDER 5.5 | 4-3 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Carolina and Columbus at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. This will be the fourth consecutive game between the Hurricanes and Blue Jackets with the previous three all staying 'under' the total. I look for that trend to continue on Thursday. After Tuesday's 3-0 shutout loss, it's worth noting that the Jackets haven't exactly thrived in a bounce-back role, averaging just 2.4 goals per game when revenging a loss by three goals or more over the last three seasons, with those games averaging a total of just 5.3 goals. The 'under' has gone 25-9 when Columbus plays at home after winning two of its last three games, with those contests totaling an average of 5.0 goals. Meanwhile, the Hurricanes average a miserable 1.7 goals per game when playing on the road following a game where three goals or less were scored, as is the case here, with those games averaging only 4.8 total goals. That same situation has produced a 3-12 o/u record over the last two seasons. I always like to say that familiarity lends itself to low-scoring games and with this being the seventh meeting between these two teams this season, I'm anticipating another relatively low-scoring affair here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-25-21 | NC State v. Colorado State UNDER 146 | Top | 61-65 | Win | 100 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
NIT Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between N.C. State and Colorado State at 7 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams put up 75 points in their NIT openers but I expect them to have a tough time approaching that number as they match up in this quarter-final game on Thursday night. Note that N.C. State ranks just 225th in the nation in possessions per game while Colorado State checks in 205th. I do think the Wolfpack will be able to run their offense in this one as the Rams rank 258th in steals per possession and 232nd in block percentage. However, Colorado does rank an impressive 64th in the country in opponents effective field goal percentage, not to mention 25th in opponents floor percentage. The Rams offense will be taking a step up in class against N.C. State here, noting that the Wolfpack rank 11th in the country in steals per possession and 34th in block percentage. I do think Colorado State will have a tough time getting comfortable at the offensive end of the floor. Keep in mind, this is a Rams squad that shoots below 44% from the field away from home this season. Also alarming for Colorado State is the fact that it ranks 251st in the nation in extra scoring chances per game. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-24-21 | Kings v. Sharks OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 25 h 47 m | Show |
NHL Rivalry Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and San Jose at 10:35 pm et on Wednesday. These two teams were involved in a low-scoring affair two nights ago as the Sharks skated to a 2-1 victory on home ice. I'm expecting a higher-scoring contest on Wednesday night. Note that while San Jose gave up just one goal in Monday's game, it has still allowed 3.6 goals per game on home ice this season. The 'over' is 19-9 when the Sharks come off a game in which they allowed one goal or less over the last three seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 6.5 goals. I'll also point out that the 'over' is 16-6 when San Jose plays at home off a win over a division opponent over the last two seasons with those games totaling an average of 7.0 goals. The Kings average a respectable 2.9 goals per game when revenging a same-season loss against an opponent over the last two seasons but also allow 3.6 goals per game coming off a game where four goals or less were scored over the last three seasons. Prior to Monday, the two previous meetings between these two rivals this season both produced at least seven goals. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
03-24-21 | Nets v. Jazz -8.5 | 88-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah minus the points over Brooklyn at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. A lot of bettors got burned by the Nets last night, electing to fade them missing two of the big three against the Blazers in Portland. James Harden rose the occasion and Brooklyn pulled off the outright underdog win in that one. Now those same bettors might be quick to switch gears and back the Nets catching a generous helping of points in Utah tonight, especially with the Jazz returning home off a long road trip. I think that's the wrong move. Note that Brooklyn will be playing its fifth game in the last eight nights, in five different cities and three different time zones. That's not to mention the fact that it is without Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving while James Harden plays with a nagging neck injury (after being on the floor for 39 minutes last night). Utah has of course been one of the league's best bets this season, going 13-4 ATS as a home favorite, outscoring opponents by 13.6 points per game on average. I like the way the Jazz are set up here, noting that they've allowed just 100.6 points per game and outscored the opposition by 12 points per game after winning their previous contest by 20 points or more over the last three seasons. That's the case here after Utah closed out its road trip with a 25-point blowout win in Chicago on Monday. Take Utah (10*). | |||||||
03-24-21 | Suns v. Magic OVER 213 | 111-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Phoenix and Orlando at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. We missed with the 'over' in the Magic's double-digit loss to the Nuggets last night. Despite Orlando's awful night offensively the game still ended up approaching the posted total. Tonight, I look for the Suns and Magic to eclipse what is a relatively-low total by today's NBA standards. Note that the Suns were also involved in a relatively low-scoring affair last night, posting a 110-100 win in Miami. Phoenix falls into an interesting situation here, as it has posted a 17-7 o/u record after winning four of its last five games over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 228.4 points. Meanwhile, the Magic are a solid negative momentum play defensively, supporting our cause with the 'over', as they give up 115.3 points per game after allowing 110 points or more in three consecutive games over the last two seasons. That situation has produced an average total of 222.8 points. I can certainly understand the logic behind the low posted total here as the first meeting between these two teams produced just 199 points in a Suns rout back on February 14th. Keep in mind, the last time these two teams met in Orlando they combined to produce a whopping 242 total points in a Magic upset victory last season. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
03-23-21 | Lightning v. Stars UNDER 5.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and Dallas at 8:35 pm et on Tuesday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in this same matchup last week but I'm going to come back with the same play in the rematch on Tuesday night. We won with the Lightning on Sunday as they poured it on late for a 5-3 victory over the Panthers. While they're certainly the superior team in this matchup, Dallas is set up reasonably well having allowed just 2.2 goals per game coming off a loss against a division opponent over the last three seasons, and giving up just 2.6 goals per game on average at home this season. Note that the 'under' is 20-6 when the Stars play at home off of three losses in their last four games over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of just 4.9 goals. This will mark the 10th meeting between these two teams since the start of 2020 with Tampa holding Dallas to three goals or less in seven of the last nine matchups. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-23-21 | Lightning -163 v. Stars | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Dallas at 8:35 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the Lightning on Sunday and we'll come right back with them again on Tuesday night as they head to Dallas to face the Stars for the second time in a week. The Stars simply haven't been able to regain the magic that saw them make an improbable run to the Stanley Cup Final to face these same Lightning last fall. Considering they've been held to three goals or less in seven straight games, losing five of those, I question whether they can keep pace with the Lightning here. Note that Dallas is a miserable 1-7 when revenging a loss where its opponent scored four goals or more this season. Meanwhile, the Lightning have been a tremendous positive momentum play, having gone 34-10 coming off four or more straight wins over the last three seasons, as is the case here. They've outscored the opposition by an average margin of 1.4 goals in that situation. Take Tampa Bay (9*). | |||||||
03-23-21 | Red Wings v. Predators UNDER 5.5 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Nashville at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. Obviously the looming possibility of Thomas Greiss getting the start in goal for the Red Wings is concerning (Greiss has been awful this season) but I think it is offset by the way this situation sets up in general, supporting a play on the 'under'. The Predators are coming off an encouraging road trip that saw them win four games while also grabbing a point in an overtime loss over the course of eight games. This quote from Ryan Johansen has me concerned a letdown could be in order on Tuesday, however. "This was a make-or-break trip for us. We had to find a way to get points and win some games, and then we did that." Note that the 'under' has gone 10-2 with the Preds returning home following a road win over a division opponent over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an average total of just 4.0 goals. Better still, the 'under' is 10-1 when the Preds return home following a road win in which they scored four or more goals over the last three seasons, as is the case here. That spot has produced an average total of just 3.8 goals. Meanwhile, the Red Wings scoring woes have been well-documented. They average just 1.9 goals per game when playing on the road following a division game over the last two seasons. On a positive note for Detroit, Nashville averages just 2.1 goals per game after winning three of its last four games over the last two seasons. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-23-21 | Nuggets v. Magic OVER 216 | Top | 110-99 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams are coming off 'under' results on Sunday but I look for a different story to unfold on Tuesday as the Nuggets and Magic square off in Orlando. Denver still managed to shoot 50% from the field in Sunday's home loss to the Pelicans - its third straight game shooting 50% or better. Of course, that's nothing out of the ordinary as the Nuggets have shot 50% or better from the field in seven of their last 10 games overall. Note that the 'over' has gone a perfect 8-0 when the Nuggets come off a home loss this season, with those games averaging 226.6 total points. We've also seen an average total of 223.6 points scored when the Nuggets come off consecutive ATS losses over the last two seasons. Orlando got bogged down in a matinee affair in Boston on Sunday, scoring just 96 points in a blowout loss. Keep in mind, in their most recent home game, the Magic scored 121 points in an upset win over the Nets (we won with Orlando in that contest). The Magic have been getting healthier and generally playing better basketball lately and should be able to take advantage of a Denver squad that ranks bottom-five in the league in both opponents' floor percentage and opponents effective field goal percentage over its last three games. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
03-23-21 | Devils v. Flyers OVER 6 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 112 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
NHL Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between New Jersey and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Devils are coming off six consecutive 'under' results but it's worth noting that five of those games were played at home (where they've been involved in mostly low-scoring affairs this season) and the lone road game came in Pittsburgh against a Penguins team that has been involved in a string of low-scoring games lately. We've seen quite a contrast in the Devils results at home compared to on the road. Note that New Jersey is averaging 3.2 goals per game away from home this season while giving up 3.0 goals per contest on a whopping 35.6 shots on goal per game. The 'over' has cashed at an 8-4 clip when New Jersey plays on the road compared to a 4-13 o/u mark on home ice. We won with the 'under' in the Flyers overtime loss here at home against the Islanders last night, snapping Philadelphia's streak of seven straight 'over' results. Note that the 'over' is a perfect 7-0 when the Flyers come off two straight losses against division opponents over the last two seasons with those games totaling an average of 8.3 goals. The 'over' is also a perfect 7-0 when Philadelphia checks in having lost three of its last four games over the last two seasons with that situation producing 8.4 total goals on average. After being held to just six goals in a three-game set with the Penguins, the Devils should be excited at the prospect of facing a Flyers squad that has given up at least four goals in six of their last eight games overall. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
03-22-21 | Pacers v. Bucks UNDER 230 | Top | 113-140 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
NBA Central Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Milwaukee at 9:10 pm et on Monday. There's a good chance that Giannis Antetokounmpo will be forced to miss Monday's game due to a nagging injury but that has only resulted in a slight shift in the total. After the first meeting between these teams sailed 'over' the total earlier this season, I believe the number will prove too high on Monday night. Note that the 'under' is 28-15 when the Pacers come off consecutive ATS wins over the last three seasons with those games totaling just 215.6 points on average. The Pacers average just 107.8 points per game after scoring 105 points or more in five straight games this season, as is the case here. That scoring average is well below their season average of 113.1 points per game. Likewise, with Indiana coming off of three straight games that reached 215 or more points this season, its next game has averaged just 220.7 total points, well south of the total we're dealing with tonight. The Bucks check in allowing just 103 points per game against division opponents over the last two seasons. After allowing 113 points in a win over a road-weary Spurs team that was playing the second of back-to-back nights on Saturday, and likely without Giannis in the lineup, I look for the Bucks to clamp down defensively in this one. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-22-21 | Colorado v. Florida State UNDER 140.5 | Top | 53-71 | Win | 100 | 22 h 3 m | Show |
CBB Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Florida State at 7:45 pm et on Monday. I like the way this one sets up as a relatively low-scoring affair in second round action on Monday night. The Buffaloes exploded for 96 points in a rout of Georgetown on Saturday but I wouldn't count on a repeat performance here. Monday's opponent, Florida State, entered the tournament ranked 12th in the nation in block percentage and 32nd in opponents effective field goal percentage this season. For its part, Colorado entered the tournament ranked a very respectable 41st in the nation in opponents floor percentage and 30th in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage. The Buffaloes 96-point outburst in the opening round was unlikely considering they rank north of 300th in the country in possessions per game. I expect a much different type of game to unfold against the Seminoles on Monday. Note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 6-0 when Colorado comes off a game where 155 or more points were scored over the last two seasons with those contests totaling just 126.6 points on average. The 'under' is also 24-8 when Colorado plays after winning four or five of its last six games over the last three seasons with those games totaling an average of just 132.3 points. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-22-21 | Islanders v. Flyers UNDER 5.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Monday. While I don't generally play a lot of Flyers 'unders' (for obvious reasons), I do like the way the spot sets up on Monday night. The Isles have of course shown a strong home-road dichotomy when it comes to totals this season. The 'under' has gone 14-2 in their 16 road games to date, with those contests totaling an average of just 4.5 goals. Also note that the 'under' is a perfect 8-0 when the Isles play on the road after a home win against a division opponent over the last two seasons with those contests totaling an average of just 3.7 goals. Meanwhile, the Flyers have posted a 1-8 o/u mark when at home revenging a loss by 4+ goals against an opponent over the last three seasons with those games totaling an average of just 4.6 goals. The 'under' is also 11-3 when the Flyers play on home ice after three consecutive games that saw at least seven goals scored, as is the case here. That situation has totaled an average of 4.8 goals. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-22-21 | Hurricanes -157 v. Blue Jackets | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Carolina over Columbus at 7:05 pm et on Monday. | |||||||
03-22-21 | Abilene Christian +5 v. UCLA | Top | 47-67 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
CBB East Region Game of the Year. My selection is on Abilene Christian plus the points over UCLA at 5:15 pm et on Monday. I'll grab the points with Abilene Christian as it continue on a Cinderella run here in the NCAA Tournament. The Wildcats shot a miserable sub-30% from the field in their opener against Texas but still managed to stage the upset thanks to an incredible defensive effort. That shouldn't have come as a big surprise as Abilene Christian has terrific at that end of the floor all season, entering the tournament ranked sixth in the nation in opponents floor percentage and 13th in opponents effective field goal percentage. That's not to mention the fact that the Wildcats are capable of ratcheting up the pressure, ranking third in the country in steals per possession. I'm not overly concerned by their awful shooting performance against Texas. Keep in mind, ACU entered the tourney ranked a respectable 67th in offensive efficiency and 55th in floor percentage, not to mention sixth in the country in extra scoring chances per game. I feel their up-tempo style could give UCLA some problems here, noting that ACU ranks 97th in possessions per game compared to the Bruins', who entered the tourney 288th. UCLA rode the hot hand of Johnny Juzang in its 'upset' win over BYU in the opening round. Juzang had been dealing with injuries and I do question what happens if he doesn't shoot the lights out again here. While ACU has had some issues taking care of the basketball this season, UCLA is unlikely to take advantage, ranking 299th in the country in steals per possession and 214th in block percentage entering this tourney. The Bruins have really been nothing special defensively either, ranking 156th in opponents floor percentage and 201st in opponents effective field goal percentage. Finally, I'll point to the fact that UCLA has gone just 3-11 ATS away from home after winning two of its last three games over the last three seasons, outscored by a whopping 11 points per game in that situation. Take Abilene Christian (10*). | |||||||
03-21-21 | Oregon State +6 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 80-70 | Win | 100 | 32 h 24 m | Show |
CBB Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Oregon State plus the points over Oklahoma State at 9:40 pm et on Sunday. Oklahoma State held on for the cover against Liberty in its NCAA Tournament opener on Friday but I expect the Cowboys will be in for a tough challenge against red hot Oregon State on Sunday. The Beavers got hot at exactly the right time, improbably winning the Pac-12 Tournament last week before dominating a good Tennessee team in their opening round matchup on Friday. I like the matchup here as well. Oklahoma State has outscored the opposition by just 1.8 points per game after winning four of its last five games this season. In 14 situations where it has won five or six of its last seven games this season it has outscored opponents by just 0.5 points per game. While Oregon State is considered an upstart, it has actually posted a winning record away from home this season, allowing just 66.7 points per game. Albeit against a tougher schedule, Oklahoma State has allowed 72.9 ppg away from home this season. Note that entering this tournament, the Cowboys ranked just 135th in the nation in offensive efficiency and 79th in floor percentage while also ranking 270th in extra scoring chances per game. By contrast, Oregon State entered the tourney ranked 88th in extra scoring chances per game. Take Oregon State (10*). | |||||||
03-21-21 | Bulls -3 v. Pistons | Top | 100-86 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
NBA Central Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago minus the points over Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. This is a fine bounce-back spot for the Nuggets after suffering consecutive losses against the Spurs and Nuggets. Both of those losses could have gone either way and there's certainly no reason for Chicago to hang its head following a four-point setback in Denver. Somewhat surprisingly, the Bulls are actually a better team on the road than at home this season, posting a 9-8 record and outscoring the opposition by 2.6 points per game. Note that Chicago is a stellar 14-2 ATS on the road after posting three wins in its last four games ATS over the last three seasons. As we've noted before, the Pistons are not a good revenge team, having gone 25-40 ATS revenging a same-season loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 6.1 points in that situation. They're also a miserable 3-13 ATS after posting consecutive ATS wins, as is the case here, outscored by 9.3 ppg in that spot. It's certainly worth mentioning that Detroit's last two wins came against a reeling Raptors squad and a dreadful Houston team. Take Chicago (10*). | |||||||
03-21-21 | Golden Knights v. Kings UNDER 5.5 | 1-3 | Win | 102 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Vegas and Los Angeles at 6:05 pm et on Sunday. We missed with the 'under' in this matchup on Friday night as the Knights skated to a 4-2 win to send it 'over' the total. I'll make the same play again on Sunday, however, noting that the 'under' has gone 24-12 when the Kings play at home after losing three of their last four games over the last two seasons. The Knights are giving up just 2.1 goals per game following an 'over' result this season. The 'under' is a solid 56-36 when they play for the fourth time in the last seven days over the last three seasons as well. With the 'over' having cashed in three straight meetings, we're seeing the total shaded to the over again here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-21-21 | Panthers v. Lightning -135 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 55 m | Show |
NHL Rivalry Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Florida at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll take advantage of a rare short price to back the Lightning on Sunday afternoon as they aim to keep their winning streak intact against the rival Panthers. Florida is coming off a 2-0 bounce-back victory over the Predators yesterday but finds itself in a tough situation here. Note that the Panthers are 1-4 after winning six or seven of their last eight games this season, as is the case here. They're also 14-23 after winning five or six of their last seven games over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, the Lightning own a stellar 44-15 record against division opponents over the last two seasons and certainly haven't forgot the 6-4 loss they suffered at the hands of the Panthers here at home on February 15th. That marked Florida's first victory here in Tampa in their last five tries though and I look for the Lightning to get the season series back to an even 2-2 with a win on Sunday afternoon. Take Tampa Bay (10*). | |||||||
03-21-21 | Magic +8.5 v. Celtics | 96-112 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Boston at 3:40 pm et on Sunday. The Magic have now won three straight and five of their last seven games ATS following a three-game ATS losing skid where many had left them for dead. We won with them in Friday's outright underdog win over the Nets and I won't hesitate to go back to the well here. Orlando has been a streaky team from an ATS perspective, having gone 19-5 ATS after winning four of its last five games ATS over the last three seasons, actually outscoring the opposition by 3.1 points on average in that situation. Boston has lost three consecutive games both SU and ATS and while most see this as a terrific bounce-back spot, I just think the Celtics might have a tough time getting fully focused on the Magic in a sleepy Sunday afternoon spot before heading out on the road for four games. Take Orlando (10*). | |||||||
03-21-21 | Pacers v. Heat -195 | 109-106 | Loss | -195 | 4 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami (moneyline) over Indiana at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. The Pacers took the front-half of this two-game set in Miami but I look for the Heat to snap their two-game mini skid and post the victory on Sunday. Rather than lay the points here I'll pay the tariff to back the Heat on the moneyline. Note that Indiana hasn't won consecutive games since the second week of February. Similarly, the Heat haven't lost three games in a row since February 13th-17th and all three of those setbacks came on the road. Note that Indiana is 3-11 SU after scoring 110+ points in in two straight games this season. Meanwhile, Miami has gone a stellar 11-2 at home revenging a loss against an opponent this season. The Heat are a perfect 8-0 SU revenging a 20+ point loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 9.7 points on average in that spot. Take Miami moneyline (9*). | |||||||
03-21-21 | Loyola-Chicago v. Illinois UNDER 133.5 | 71-58 | Win | 100 | 23 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Loyola-Chicago and Illinois at 12:10 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'under' in Illinois' opening round win over Drexel and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Sunday as the Illini take in Loyola-Chicago. The Ramblers play at one of the slowest paces in the entire nation, yet they're coming off an 'over' result in their opening round matchup - a 71-60 win over Georgia Tech. Note that in 10 games where the Ramblers played on the road off consecutive 'over' results over the last three seasons, those contests totaled an average of just 126.7 points. Loyola-Chicago entered the tournament ranked tops in the nation in opponents floor percentage and 14th in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage. Of course, Illinois is no slouch defensively as we saw on Friday as it held Drexel to 30.6% shooting. While Loyola-Chicago will likely improve on that shooting performance here, I'm not convinced it will be enough to get this one 'over' the total. In what has the potential to be a tightly-contested affair it's worth mentioning that Illinois ranks 234th in the country in free throw percentage. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-20-21 | Hornets +9.5 v. Clippers | 98-125 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Charlotte plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Saturday. This road trip hasn't gone as planned for the Hornets as they've dropped consecutive games by double-digit margins in Denver and here in Los Angeles (against the Lakers). I like the way they're set up to at least keep things competitive against the Clippers on Saturday, however. Note that Charlotte has gone 37-19 ATS off at least two losses in a row over the last three seasons, outscored by just 1.0 point per game in that situation. They're also an impressive 21-8 ATS after giving up 105+ points in three straight games over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 0.7 points per game in that spot. As for the Clippers, they've outscored opponents by an average margin of just 5.9 points when returning home off a road game over the last three seasons. There's no reason for the Hornets to hang their heads here as they still have three games left on this road trip to turn things around. Meanwhile, I'm not sure how easy it will be for the Clips to get up for this two-game homestand against Eastern Conference opponents. Take Charlotte (10*). | |||||||
03-20-21 | UCLA v. BYU OVER 138.5 | Top | 73-62 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
CBB First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between UCLA and BYU at 9:40 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'over' in UCLA's overtime victory over Michigan State in Thursday's First Four matchup and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here on Saturday as the Bruins take on the Cougars of BYU. As I noted in Thursday's analysis, Bruins head coach Mick Cronin noted during the Pac-12 Tournament that his team had 'hit a wall' both mentally and physically. I mentioned that I felt the week off following their exit from the Pac-12 Tournament might serve them well and that's precisely what appeared to be the case on Thursday as the Bruins played loose and scored 86 points (77 of those in regulation time), shooting better than 46% from the field and turning the ball over only eight times. I like the way this sets up as another relatively high-scoring affair on Saturday. Note that UCLA checks in 38th in the nation in offensive efficiency and an even better 27th in floor percentage. For its part, BYU also ranks highly at the offensive end of the floor, sitting 42nd in offensive efficiency and 59th in floor percentage. While the Cougars also check in as a solid defensive team, it's certainly worth noting that they didn't face many elite offenses outside of Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference. In two matchups against Gonzaga, BYU gave up 82 and 88 points. While UCLA is by no means on the same level as Gonzaga, the point is still worth making as a now-healthy Bruins squad is certainly capable of giving the Cougars some heartburn defensively. I like the fact that neither team causes a great deal of chaos at the defensive end of the floor. UCLA ranks a miserable 299th in steals per possession and 214th in block percentage. For its part, BYU ranks 329th and 220th in those two categories, respectively. While the Bruins don't prefer a fast pace, ranking 288th in possessions per game, they do make up for it by ranking 61st in extra scoring chances per game. This may not turn out to be a track meet, but it doesn't have to be with the total sitting in the 130's. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
03-20-21 | Spurs v. Bucks -9.5 | Top | 113-120 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over San Antonio at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. The Spurs guaranteed themselves a winning road trip with last night's 116-110 win in Cleveland. I can certainly see a scenario unfolding where they have a tough time keeping within arm's reach against a much better rested Bucks squad here on Saturday. For San Antonio, this will be its fifth game in the last seven nights (in five different cities). In fact, it will be the Spurs seventh game in seven different cities since the All-Star break. Meanwhile, the Bucks are home off two days' rest and this will mark just their fourth game in the last eight days and only their fifth since the All-Star break (in only three different cities). Note that Milwaukee has gone 28-15 ATS returning home following an ATS loss over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 14.1 points on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Spurs have been outscored by 7.2 points per game on average as a road underdog over the last three seasons, and this is by no means a favorable situation (for the reasons noted above). Take Milwaukee (10*). | |||||||
03-20-21 | Blue Jackets v. Hurricanes -185 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -185 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
NHL Central Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Carolina over Columbus at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. I have no problem laying the relatively steep price to back the Hurricanes on home ice against the Blue Jackets on Saturday. Columbus took the first game of this two-game set in Carolina on Thursday by a 3-2 score in overtime. That puts the Jackets in a tough spot here as they're averaging just 1.9 goals per game playing on the road off a one-goal road win over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 0.7 goals in that situation. On six occasions where the Jackets have played on the road off a road win over a division opponent over the last two seasons, as is the case here, they've averaged just one goal per game and have been outscored by an average margin of 1.8 goals. Carolina allows just 1.9 goals per game and outscores the opposition by 1.0 goal on average when coming off an overtime loss over the last three seasons. Take Carolina (10*). | |||||||
03-20-21 | Flames v. Maple Leafs -155 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto over Calgary at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. The Leafs struggles continued last night as they fell behind early and never recovered in a 4-3 loss against the Flames. I do expect Toronto to bounce back on Saturday night, however, noting that it has gone an incredible 15-4 after losing five or six of its last seven games over the last three seasons. While Calgary did win last night, it is still a losing team on the road at 7-10 on the season, where it allows over three goals per game. Take Toronto (9*). | |||||||
03-20-21 | Texas Southern v. Michigan -25 | Top | 66-82 | Loss | -114 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
CBB Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Michigan minus the points over Texas Southern at 3 pm et on Saturday. I expect to see Michigan lay waste to Texas Southern on Saturday afternoon. Of course, credit the Tigers for advancing past Mount St. Mary's in come-from-behind fashion in their First Four matchup on Thursday, but they're likely to get drummed in this one. Note that Texas Southern ranks just 209th in the nation in offensive efficiency and a miserable 277th in turnovers per possession. While we didn't see it on Thursday, the Tigers generally look to push the pace but that will likely backfire against the Wolverines here. Michigan of course has a sour taste in its mouth after failing to reach the final in the Big Ten Tournament last weekend. The Wolverines check into this game ranked 17th in offensive efficiency, 21st in floor percentage, 24th in total rebounding percentage, eighth in opponents effective field goal percentage and third in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage - you get the picture. Texas Southern regularly got torched during its non-conference schedule, allowing 80+ points against Oklahoma State, St. Mary's-CA, Auburn and BYU. Here, unless the Wolverines completely look past the Tigers, they should be able to approach 90 while I don't see Texas Southern finding an easy path to 60. Take Michigan (10*). | |||||||
03-20-21 | St Bonaventure +1.5 v. LSU | 61-76 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Bonaventure plus the points over LSU at 1:45 pm et on Saturday. LSU enjoyed a tremendous run in the SEC Tournament, reaching the final before falling by a single point against Alabama. The Tigers were largely inconsistent away from their home floor over the course of the season, however, going 7-7 SU and ATS while allowing north of 78 points per game. St. Bonaventure is an experienced team built for postseason success and we certainly saw that play out in the Atlantic-10 Tournament as the Bonnies defeated VCU to bring home the championship. I'm confident in the Bonnies ability to run their offense in this matchup, noting that LSU ranks 199th in the nation in opponents floor percentage and 226th in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage this season. The Tigers also rank a miserable 258th in block percentage. Meanwhile, St. Bonaventure ranks ninth in opponents floor percentage and 54th in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage. The Bonnies also check in a very respectable 60th in extra scoring chances per game - by contrast, LSU is 154th in that department. As we saw in the SEC Tournament, the Tigers thrive in an up-tempo environment but I don't think the Bonnies will be interested in trading baskets on Saturday. Note that St. Bonaventure ranks 329th in the country in possessions per game and I'm confident it can use that slow pace to its advantage here. Take St. Bonaventure (10*). | |||||||
03-19-21 | Golden Knights v. Kings UNDER 5.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Vegas and Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Friday. We've somewhat surprisingly seen a pair of high-scoring games between these two teams this season but I look for a return to 'normal' on Friday night as Vegas puts its four-game winning streak on the line in Los Angeles. Note that Vegas is giving up just 1.5 goals per game when going on the road off a one-goal victory over the last two seasons, with the 'under' cashing at a 10-2 clip in that situation. The Knights are of course coming off consecutive one-goal wins over the Sharks earlier this week (we won with San Jose on the puck-line in both of those games). Meanwhile, the Kings have posted a 1-11 o/u record when playing at home off a win by 2+ goals against a division opponent over the last two seasons with those games totaling an average of just 3.6 goals. The Kings posted a 4-1 victory over the reeling Blues two nights ago after that game was postponed on Monday with L.A. stuck in Denver due to a snowstorm. The Knights are allowing just 2.2 goals per game on the road this season but the Kings have been no slouches at home either, giving up just 2.7 goals per contest. They haven't given up more than three goals in a game here at Staples Center since back on February 9th against San Jose. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-19-21 | Winthrop +7 v. Villanova | Top | 63-73 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
CBB First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Winthrop plus the points over Villanova at 9:55 pm et on Friday. While Villanova is just two tournaments removed from a National Championship and head coach Jay Wright is deserving of all the respect he receives for putting together a title contender year in and year out, I believe this is a tough opening round matchup for the Wildcats against a Winthrop squad that 'checks all the boxes' as a potential Cinderella team here in March. We've seen some cracks in Villanova's armor down the stretch while Winthrop has just one blemish on its otherwise flawless resume, albeit against inferior opposition to what the Wildcats face on a game-to-game basis in the Big East. I'm not going to knock the Eagles for playing a lighter schedule though - what they've accomplished is certainly deserving of plenty of respect. Winthrop checks in ranked 7th in the nation in total rebounding percentage compared to Villanova's 116th. I really like the fact that the Eagles will be facing a Wildcats defense that hasn't proven to be all that active at its own end of the floor. Note that 'Nova ranks a miserable 343rd in the country in block percentage and 260th in steals per possession. Contrast that with Winthrop, which checks in 59th in steals per possession, while only slightly better in terms of block percentage at 264th. Defensively, Winthrop has been terrific, ranking 18th in opponents floor percentage, top-100 in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage and a respectable 127th in opponents effective field goal percentage. In order to stay inside the number tonight, taking advantage of any and all extra opportunities will be key and the Eagles check in top-five in the nation in extra scoring chances per game and also succeed at pushing the pace, ranking 48th in possessions per game. By contrast, 'Nova ranks 296th in possessions per game. The knock on the Eagles is their inability to knock down their free throws but we did see some improvement from them in that regard down the stretch, as they shot better than 74% from the free throw line in their last three games while the Wildcats saw some regression, knocking down just 66% of their free throw attempts over their last three contests. Maybe the Eagles freeze in the moment and Villanova's championship pedigree leads it to victory here, but I believe Winthrop has all the tools to at the very least take this one down to the wire. Take Winthrop (10*). | |||||||
03-19-21 | Nets v. Magic +10.5 | Top | 113-121 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Brooklyn at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Magic haven't won a game since February 21st and are in what appears to be a tough spot here playing the second of back-to-back nights off a tough loss in New York on Thursday. With that being said, I believe they're being given too many points here. The Nets have won six games in a row, including a come-from-behind victory in Indiana (without Kyrie Irving) two nights ago. I do question how easy it will be for the Nets to get up for this one against the slumping Magic, however. The Magic have played hard off a road loss over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of just 1.9 points per game in that situation, as is the case here. The Nets are outscoring opponents by just 5.2 points per game as a road favorite this season, well south of the spread we're dealing with tonight. Orlando has been getting healthier lately and we've seen signs of progress as it has gone 4-2 ATS over its last six games. I expect the Magic to use last night's close loss as a confidence-builder rather than a reason to be down on themselves here. Take Orlando (10*). | |||||||
03-19-21 | Spurs v. Cavs +4.5 | 116-110 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over San Antonio at 7:40 pm et on Friday. Even without Demar Derozan, the Spurs have turned things around with consecutive wins over the Pistons and Bulls this week. I expect them to have a tough time staying up for this date with the lowly Cavs on Friday, however, with Derozan likely to miss once again. The Cavs finally won a game last time out with their young core showing up and showing out against the Celtics in a 117-110 victory. I look for some carry-over from that performance here. Note that the Spurs are just 6-16 ATS after winning three of their last four games over the last two seasons, outscored by 5.5 points on average in that situation. They're also a woeful 16-30 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by just 2.2 points per contest. Take Cleveland (10*). | |||||||
03-19-21 | Utah State +4.5 v. Texas Tech | 53-65 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah State plus the points over Texas Tech at 1:45 pm et on Friday. In what has the potential to be a very low-scoring game, I'll grab all the points I can get with Utah State on Friday afternoon. The Aggies, of course, fell in the Mountain West Tournament championship against a terrific San Diego State team by double-digits in front of a national audience on CBS last Saturday. With that result fresh in the minds of a lot of bettors, I can understand Texas Tech being installed as a considerable favorite here. With that being said, the Aggies have been a 'tough out' all season long and I expect that to hold true here today. While Texas Tech ranks highly in most offensive categories, including just outside the top-50 in offensive efficiency and the top-20 in floor percentage, it will be up against a very capable Aggies defense that ranks an impressive second in the nation in opponents floor percentage and 15th in opponents effective field goal percentage. It's certainly worth noting that Utah State ranks third in the country in total rebounding percentage compared to Texas Tech, which checks in 97th. The Aggies possess an active defense that ranks 13th in block percentage as well and sit 29th in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage. Both teams are comfortable playing at a relatively slow pace - again in a game that has the potential to be low-scoring, with both teams capable of knocking down their free throws, I look for this one going down to the wire. Take Utah State (10*). | |||||||
03-19-21 | Drexel v. Illinois UNDER 143.5 | 49-78 | Win | 100 | 15 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Drexel and Illinois at 1:15 pm et on Friday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in Illinois' Big Ten Championship Game win over Ohio State last Sunday but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as the Illini begin what they hope will be a deep NCAA Tournament run. While the Illini should handle Drexel without too much heartburn, there are a number of reasons why I believe the Dragons can at least keep things respectable and ultimately help keep this one 'under' the total. Drexel actually ranks 42nd in the nation in offensive efficiency this season and 50th in floor percentage. Against an Illinois defense that ranks 263rd in steals per possession and 224th in block percentage I do think the Dragons will be able to run their offense to a certain extent but I question how many productive possessions (possessions resulting in points) they'll have given Illinois ranks 34th in the nation in opponents effective field goal percentage. Note that Drexel ranks 319th in the country in possessions per game so it isn't going to look to push the pace in this one. That's obviously a stark contrast to Illinois, which ranks 70th in possessions per game but I do think the Dragons can at least make a concerted effort to bog things down a little bit in this one - it's really their only hope of staying competitive. I'll also point out that Drexel ranks 235th in extra scoring chances per game while Illinois has also been quite average in that category, ranking 130th. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-18-21 | UCLA v. Michigan State OVER 134.5 | 86-80 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between UCLA and Michigan State at 9:55 pm et on Thursday. In previous years this matchup may have set up as a defensive slugfest but given the current state of both programs, I'm anticipating a relatively high-scoring affair on Thursday night. Note that both UCLA and Michigan State have given up well north of 70 points per game away from home this season. Michigan State enters this game riding a six-game 'under' streak and admittedly played pretty solid defense down the stretch. I believe UCLA will give it some trouble on Thursday night, however. The time off since the Bruins made their unceremonious exit from the Pac-12 Tournament should have served them well as this was a team that head coach Mick Cronin admitted had 'hit the wall' near the end of a trying season due to injuries and otherwise. This 'First Four' berth gives the Bruins a new lease on life, so to speak. Note that UCLA ranks an impressive 28th in the nation in floor percentage this season and also checks in 62nd in the country in extra scoring chances per game. The problem for the Bruins is that they rank 199th in opponents effective field goal percentage, really not able to make life difficult on opposing offenses with any consistency over the course of the season. Michigan State got bogged down offensively at times but that's pretty much par for the course against some elite defensive teams in the Big Ten. Keep in mind, prior to the onset of conference play, the Spartans averaged 84.8 points per game in six non-conference tilts. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
03-18-21 | Pelicans v. Blazers OVER 239.5 | 93-101 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. These two teams were involved in an absolute thriller two nights ago with Damian Lillard bringing the Blazers all the way back in a 125-124 come-from-behind victory. I'm anticipating another high-scoring affair on Thursday, as the seemingly lofty total would suggest. I actually feel the total could be even higher than it is. Note that the 'over' is 13-2 when the total is set at 230+ points in games involving the Pelicans this season. That situation has produced an average total of 247.9 points. Interestingly, the Blazers have posted an 11-0 o/u record when playing at home off a game they won but failed to cover the spread, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 244.4 points. This series couldn't be much more higher-scoring with the last four meetings producing 249, 250, 243 and 255 total points. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
03-18-21 | Wild v. Avalanche -143 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado over Minnesota at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. This is about as cheap of a price as you're going to see with the Avs playing at home and it has everything to do with the fact that the Wild have won five straight games. Keep in mind, those five straight wins all came at home. Now the Wild head out on the road to face what will be a revenge-minded Avs squad after Minnesota took the most recent meeting 6-2 in late February. Note that Colorado is 20-7 when revenging a loss where it allowed 4+ goals over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.6 goals in that situation. The Avs are also 17-3 off a home win by 2+ goals over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.8 goals per game. The Wild are 12-24 after recording consecutive wins by 3+ goals. Take Colorado (10*). | |||||||
03-18-21 | Thunder +7 v. Hawks | 93-116 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Atlanta at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams enter this game banged-up but I give the Thunder the considerable edge in terms of motivation. Oklahoma City is coming off a 21-point drubbing at the hands of the Bulls in Chicago two nights ago but that sets it up well here, noting that the Thunder have gone 8-1 ATS off a road loss this season, outscored by just 0.8 points per game in that spot. They're 29-11 ATS as a road underdog over the last two seasons, outscored by just 3.4 points per game on average. Meanwhile, the Hawks are a miserable 4-14 ATS after posting four or five ATS wins in their last six games over the last two seasons, outscored by a whopping 12.3 points per game in that situation. While we're obviously talking about a much stronger Atlanta squad than we've seen in past years', I do question how much the Hawks will be up for this one after winning six straight games, with their last three victories coming by double-digit margins. Take Oklahoma City (10*). | |||||||
03-18-21 | Stars v. Red Wings UNDER 5.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Detroit at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in Detroit's most recent game - a 4-2 victory over Carolina on Tuesday night. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here, however, as the Wings host the Stars on Thursday night. Dallas suffered a 4-3 shootout loss against Tampa Bay two nights ago as it continues to struggle to post consecutive victories. Now the Stars head back on the road where they average just 2.4 goals per game this season. While the Red Wings are coming off a four-goal outburst on Tuesday, their offensive struggles have been well-documented. Note that they've posted an 0-6 o/u record when revenging a loss where they gave up 5+ goals this season, averaging just 1.3 goals per game in that situation. The 'under' is also 9-2 when the Wings come off a home win over a division opponent over the last two seasons, with those games averaging just 5.1 total goals. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-18-21 | Jazz v. Wizards +12 | 122-131 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington plus the points over Utah at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. The Wizards have a quick turnaround here after losing on a last-second shot from De'Aaron Fox last night against the Kings. However, I would argue this is a much tougher game for Utah to get up for than Washington. The Jazz defeated the Celtics two nights ago in Boston and are playing in their third different time zone since the All-Star break having gone from Utah to San Francisco to Boston and now the short trip to Washington. Having gone just 4-6 ATS over their last 10 games, how interested are the Jazz in laying a beatdown on the Wiz here? Meanwhile, Washington has now lost five games in a row and would like nothing more than to play spoiler before heading on the road for three straight games in New York (one against the Nets and two against the Knicks). Note that while the Jazz are an impressive 15-5 ATS on the road after losing three of their last four games ATS over the last three seasons, they've won those games by an average margin of just 4.6 points. The Wizards are 26-9 ATS when playing the second of back-to-backs over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.4 points. Take Washington (10*). | |||||||
03-18-21 | Blue Jackets v. Hurricanes UNDER 5.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Columbus and Carolina at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Hurricanes will undoubtedly be in a foul mood on Thursday night after dropping a 4-2 decision against the lowly Red Wings in Detroit on Tuesday. That game saw three power play goals scored in the first 13 minutes but only three more were scored the rest of the way including a Wings empty net goal. I look for a strong bounce-back performance from the Canes here at home against the Blue Jackets, who average just 2.1 goals per game on the road this season. Columbus is also looking to bounce back after suffering a 2-1 shootout loss against the Stars on Sunday. Note that the 'under' is 30-16 when the Blue Jackets come off a one-goal loss in their last game over the last three seasons. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-18-21 | Drake v. Wichita State UNDER 141 | Top | 53-52 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
First Four Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Drake and Wichita State at 6:25 pm et on Thursday. I really like the way this one sets up as more of a grind-it-out, defensive battle than the oddsmakers are accounting for on Thursday. I expect to see both teams run their offenses in this one, with not a lot of fast break and transition points with both sides adept at taking care of the basketball. Note that Drake ranks an impressive ninth in the country in fewest turnovers per possession while Wichita State checks in a very respectable 24th. Drake is also 299th in the country in possessions per game with Wichita State in the middle of the pack in that department, ranking 168th. I'm not expecting either team to stray from their preferred style and really look to speed things up here with a berth in the field of 64 on the line. Drake is expected to have ShanQuan Hemphill back in the lineup for the first time since February but it remains to be seen how much he will contribute in his first game back. Both teams rank top-100 in the country in opponents effective field goal percentage this season, with Wichita State sitting in the top-50. Note that the 'under' is 10-2 when Wichita State follows two or more consecutive ATS losses over the last two seasons, with those games totaling an average of just 129.5 points. With the Missouri Valley Conference being quite top-heavy this season, Drake was able to pad its offensive stats against some weak opposition. Meanwhile, Wichita State - a former MVC member - now resides in the American Athletic Conference, which is known for its high-scoring, up-tempo teams. It all adds up to a relatively high posted total for this one, and I believe that number will prove too high. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-18-21 | Drake v. Wichita State +2 | 53-52 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Wichita State plus the points over Drake at 6:25 pm et on Thursday. All of the analytics seemingly point to Drake in this First Four matchup on Thursday night so it's not a surprise that the Bulldogs have flipped over to the favorite role. After a subpar showing in the AAC Tournament, however, I like the way this game sets up for Wichita State. Drake got off to a red hot start this season but injuries ultimately took their toll and the Bulldogs were never really able to regain that magic late, ultimately falling in the MVC Championship Game against Loyola-Chicago. The Bulldogs absolutely tore through their non-conference schedule but it was littered with beatable teams. Their season-opening win at Kansas State may have looked somewhat impressive at the time but the Wildcats turned out to be a Big 12 doormat. Meanwhile, Wichita State hung tough in key non-conference games against Missouri, Oklahoma State and Ole Miss, going 1-1-1 ATS. The Shockers also split a pair of matchups with eventual AAC champion Houston, going 2-0 ATS in the process. So many bettors were burned by Wichita State in its upset loss in the AAC Tournament semi-finals. We actually cashed a ticket fading them in the quarter-final round against South Florida last Friday (but lost with them on the ML against Cincinnati in the semis). Even with Drake getting healthier in time for this game (ShanQuan Hemphill is expected to return to the lineup for the first time since February), I believe the wrong team is favored in this one. Take Wichita State (10*). | |||||||
03-17-21 | Sharks +1.5 v. Golden Knights | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Jose +1.5 goals over Vegas at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the Sharks on the puck-line on Monday and I don't see any reason not to back them again in Wednesday night's rematch in Vegas. The Sharks are 3-1 in their last four games, allowing just five goals in the process. As I noted in Monday's analysis, San Jose is as healthy as it has been all season so perhaps it's no surprise that it is finally playing well with some consistency. Note that the Sharks are 26-16 the last 42 times they've played with triple-revenge, as is the case here tonight. They've outscored opponents by 0.3 goals per game in that situation. The Knights have interestingly been at their worst after low-scoring games in recent years, going 8-16 after a game totaling three goals or less over the last two seasons, outscored by 0.8 goals per game in that spot. Take San Jose +1.5 goals (10*). | |||||||
03-17-21 | Heat -1 v. Grizzlies | Top | 85-89 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
NBA Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on Miami minus the points over Memphis at 9:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Grizzlies are fading fast right now, losers of three games in a row, allowing their last two opponents to shoot a combined 89-for-156 (57%) from the field. They're back home tonight and catch the Heat in a back-to-back spot but that's certainly been factored into this line. Keep in mind, Memphis is actually a losing team at home this season where it has been outscored by 3.0 points per game on average. The Heat are an even 10-10 on the road but enter tonight's game riding a six-game winning streak away from home. Having held five straight opponents to 45.3% or worse shooting, I like the way the Heat have locked down on defense lately and I'm confident they can add to the Grizzlies woes on Wednesday night. Take Miami (10*). | |||||||
03-17-21 | Kings v. Wizards -2.5 | 121-119 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington minus the points over Sacramento at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. We cashed a ticket fading the Kings on Monday night in Charlotte and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as they continue their eastern road swing in Washington. The Wizards have lost four straight games but they were underdogs in all four of those contests. This is clearly their best shot at a win on their current five-game homestand as a date with the Jazz looms tomorrow night. As I noted in Monday's analysis, the Kings have been awful following a loss this season and it ultimately boils down to poor coaching in my opinion. They've gone 6-17 ATS off a loss this season, outscored by 7.1 points on average in that situation. Under head coach Luke Walton, the Kings have gone 20-36 ATS following an ATS loss, outscored by 5.5 points per game on average. Look for the Wiz to bring an end to their losing streak here. Take Washington (10*). | |||||||
03-16-21 | Lightning v. Stars UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -113 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
NHL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and Dallas at 8:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Lightning finally saw their 'over' streak come to an end at five games in yesterday's 4-1 home loss to the Predators. While Tampa Bay had been lighting it up offensively prior to that contest, that had a lot to do with its schedule, having faced only the Blackhawks, Red Wings and Predators since the beginning of March. The last time the Lightning faced the Stars was on February 27th, when they skated to a 5-0 victory. That actually sets up the 'under' well in this spot, noting that Dallas has posted a 3-12 o/u record at home when revenging a road loss by two goals or more over the last two seasons with those games averaging just 4.4 total goals. While Dallas has been a general disappointment this season, it has performed reasonably well at home, where it gives up just 2.4 goals per game. Also note that the Stars have posted a 3-13 o/u record when returning home off a road game over the last two seasons, giving up just 2.2 goals per game in that situation. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-16-21 | Knicks v. 76ers -6.5 | Top | 96-99 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over New York at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Knicks stayed competitive and covered the spread last night in Brooklyn but certainly showed signs of fatigue, shooting just 40% from the field and really only staying in it thanks to the Nets general disinterest in putting the game away. We won with the 76ers in Sunday's rout of the undermanned Spurs and I'm anticipating another convincing victory here on Tuesday. Further to my fatigue comment regarding the Knicks, note that they allowed the Nets to shoot 58% from the field last night. With a number of key cogs currently out of the lineup, I don't see this as an ideal bounce-back spot with New York heading home for a four-game homestand after this one. The 76ers continue to play without Joel Embiid but keep rolling along, winners of five games in a row ATS. They're a terrific positive momentum play having gone 14-4 ATS at home after scoring 115 points or more over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 10.6 points per game in that situation. They've generally been rock solid at home this season, where they outscore opponents by eight points per game, going 14-6 ATS in the process. The Knicks average 105.9 points per game when revenging a same-season loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 4.4 points. I expect them to have a tough time keeping within arm's reach for four quarters tonight. Take Philadelphia (10*). | |||||||
03-16-21 | Cavs v. Heat UNDER 213 | 98-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Miami at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. This is a low total by today's NBA standards but it's warranted in my opinion. The Cavs will be playing just their third game since the All-Star break with neither of the previous two going well at all - blown out by 34 and 18 points at the hands of the Pelicans and Hawks. With that in mind, I do expect to see them play some defense here tonight and they draw perhaps a more favorable matchup with the Heat unlikely to really push the pace. Note that Miami's offense is below-average - the Heat haven't shot better than 50% from the field in a game just once since February 20th. On the flip side, Miami has been an excellent defensive team on its home floor, giving up just north of 107 points per game on below 44% shooting. This isn't a likely breakout spot for the Cavs offense, noting that they average just 98.7 points per game on the road this season. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-15-21 | Sharks +1.5 v. Golden Knights | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Jose +1.5 goals over Vegas at 10:05 pm et on Monday. The Sharks have quietly gotten themselves on a bit of a roll lately, winning three straight games and outscoring the opposition 12-3 in the process. While I'm not going to call for the outright upset in Vegas on Monday, I do expect San Jose to give the Knights all they can handle. Of course, the Sharks motivation level should be sky-high for this one as they've dropped all three meetings against Vegas this season, including consecutive losses on home ice earlier this month. While San Jose has gotten healthier with Tomas Hertl among those returning to the lineup, the Knights are still without big offseason acquisition Alex Pietrangelo. Vegas is coming off back-to-back wins in St. Louis on Friday and Saturday but is actually in a tough spot here, returning home off a long road trip. Note that the Knights have gone 0-4 (small sample size, I know) and have been outscored by a wide average margin of 2.2 goals when playing at home off at least three consecutive games on the road over the last two seasons. Meanwhile, the Sharks are a strong positive momentum play here having gone 12-4 when on the road after allowing two goals or less in consecutive games over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.2 goals per game in that situation. Going back much further, the Sharks are 26-15 when in a triple-revenge situation, as is the case here. We'll grab the insurance goal with San Jose here, noting that it has gone 9-3 when factoring in the +1.5 puck-line over its last 12 contests. Take San Jose +1.5 goals (10*). |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ricky Tran | $756 |
ProSportsPicks | $632 |
Joseph D'Amico | $510 |
Joey Tron | $450 |
Tom Macrina | $399 |
Nick Parsons | $344 |
Sean Murphy | $306 |
Jack Jones | $303 |
William Burns | $233 |
Dan Kaiser | $220 |