Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11-12-22 | San Jose State v. San Diego State UNDER 41.5 | Top | 27-43 | Loss | -110 | 58 h 43 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between San Jose State and San Diego State at 10:30 pm et on Saturday. I can't help but feel San Diego State's 32-28 loss to Fresno State two games back served as a 'watershed moment' for the team. The Aztecs leaned heavily on their defense last Saturday, prevailing by a 14-10 score over UNLV (we won with Rebels ATS in that game). With a severely disjointed offense, San Diego State will likely need to continue to ride its defense hard down the stretch and I think it's catching San Jose State at the right time here, as the Spartans are likely in for a letdown after scoring 35 and 28 points over their last two games. San Jose State can play some defense as well. The Spartans have incredibly held six of eight opponents to 17 or fewer points this season. Not surprisingly, the 'under' has cashed in six of their eight contests. Noting that last year's meeting between these two teams produced a grand total of just 32 points, I'm comfortable playing the 'under' again here, even as we work with a relatively low number. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
11-12-22 | California v. Oregon State -13.5 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 56 h 40 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Oregon State minus the points over California at 9 pm et on Saturday. I really like the way this spot sets up for Oregon State as it returns to Corvallis with an extra day of preparation time following last Friday's tough 24-21 loss at Washington. We won with the 'under' in that narrow defeat at the hands of the Huskies in Seattle but won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Beavers here. California checks in off a spirited 41-35 loss at rival USC. The Bears were obviously up for that showdown, turning in one of their best performances of the season, albeit in a losing effort. I question whether Cal gets back up to the same level for this one, noting that it enters on the heels of five straight losses, with its season effectively circling the drain with slim hopes of gaining Bowl eligibility (it needs to win its final three games). Note that Cal is just 4-7 ATS in its last 11 games following an ATS victory while Oregon State has reeled off 10 consecutive ATS victories here at home. Take Oregon State (10*). | |||||||
11-12-22 | Hornets v. Heat UNDER 215.5 | 115-132 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Charlotte and Miami at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the 'under' in this same matchup on Thursday but that was a 'bad beat' by very definition as the two teams needed overtime to get 'over' the total. Not much of an adjustment has been made to the total in advance of Saturday's rematch so I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the 'under' again. Note that Charlotte continues to struggle offensively, making good on just 36, 33, 32, 42, 34 and 40 field goals in regulation time over its last six games. In the high-water mark game over that stretch, it still scored 'only' 100 points in a loss against the Wizards. On the flip side, due to a number of key injuries, the Hornets have had to work to slow their opponents' pace in order to stay competitive and that has worked to a certain extent. They've limited six of their last seven opponents to 88 or fewer field goal attempts in regulation time. Miami shot just 37-of-83 in the first four quarters on Thursday. Of course, the Heat boast one of the best defenses in the league, limiting each of their last six opponents to 86 or fewer FG attempts in regulation time. Only one of their last five opponents has knocked down more than 40 field goals and that was Sacramento in a game where it scored 'only' 107 points. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
11-12-22 | Washington v. Oregon UNDER 73 | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 54 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Oregon at 7 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'over' in Oregon's most recent home game - a 45-30 win over UCLA three weeks ago. Since then, we've seen the Ducks defense get tuned up in lopsided wins over California and Colorado. While Washington will offer a much tougher challenge, I'm confident the Ducks 'D' will be up for it on Saturday. It's a similar story with the Washington defense as it has seemingly been getting stronger as the season has gone on. Last week, we won with the 'under' in the Huskies narrow 24-21 home win over Oregon State. It has had an extra day to prepare for Oregon with that most recent contest being played on a Friday night. You would have to go back seven meetings in this series to find the last time the Ducks hung 40+ points on the Huskies and as electric as this Oregon offense has been, I don't see that happening here either. We like to play Washington 'overs' in games where it is likely to jump out to a sizable lead, as that tends to be when the Huskies defense sags. In what has the potential to be a relatively competitive affair all the way on Saturday, I'll go the other way and back the 'under'. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
11-12-22 | Oilers +1.5 v. Panthers | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Edmonton +1.5 goals over Florida at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. We'll fade the Panthers on the puck-line here as they look to secure a third consecutive win by 2+ goals. The Oilers have alternated losses and wins so far on this eastern road swing and are coming off an ugly 7-2 loss in Carolina two nights ago. That game got away from Edmonton but it was a tough three-in-four spot in an obvious letdown situation off a 3-2 win in Tampa two nights earlier. Note that the road team has won four consecutive meetings in this series with Edmonton most recently skating to a 4-3 victory in Sunrise last February. Take Edmonton +1.5 goals (8*). | |||||||
11-12-22 | South Carolina v. Florida UNDER 59.5 | Top | 6-38 | Win | 100 | 51 h 20 m | Show |
SEC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between South Carolina and Florida at 4 pm et on Saturday. South Carolina's offense got off to a roaring start this season, scoring 30+ points in four of its first five games. That had a lot to do with a very manageable non-conference schedule, however. Since then, the Gamecocks have put up 24, 30, 10 and 38 points with the latter performance coming against one of the worst defensive teams in the country in Vanderbilt last Saturday. Florida's defense has been ripped by the likes of Tennessee and Georgia but there's no shame in that. Outside of those two poor performances, the Gators 'D' has held up reasonably well and I'm confident it can stand up against what I still consider to be a fading Gamecocks offense (note that South Carolina gained four extra possessions thanks to turnovers last week and still scored 'only' 38 points against an awful Vandy defense). Florida is coming off a 41-point outburst in a win over Texas A&M last week but I don't think this is an offense built to deliver those type of point explosions on a regular basis. Note that the Gators have been held to 18 or fewer pass completions in five consecutive games, despite trailing most of the way in two of those contests. While the 'over' has cashed in five straight meetings in this series, those games topped out at 66 points so not all that much higher than the number we're dealing with here. Also note that only three of those five contests surpassed Saturday's total (at the time of writing). Take the under (10*). | |||||||
11-12-22 | UMass Lowell v. Rutgers UNDER 136 | 65-73 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between UMass-Lowell and Rutgers at 2 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams shot the lights out in their most recent game with UMass-Lowell crushing Columbia 89-62 and Rutgers rolling to an 88-50 rout of Sacred Heart (we won with the Scarlet Knights in that game). Note that Rutgers got off 'only' 60 field goal attempts in Thursday's win after hoisting up 72 in its season-opener against a defense-less Columbia squad. The Scarlet Knights have absolutely manhandled their first two opponents defensively, limiting them to 47 and 53 field goal attempts. UMass-Lowell has thrived from beyond the arc through two games, averaging 10 made three-pointers per contest. Rutgers, however, has limited its first two opponents to a grand total of six made threes. Like Rutgers, UMass-Lowell has also played with some defensive intensity in the early going this season, yielding just 18 and 19 made field goals to its first two opponents. After turning the basketball over 21 times last time out and facing a Rutgers defense that has forced 50 turnovers through two games, I can't help but think UMass-Lowell's number one priority in this one will simply be hanging on to the basketball, ultimately leading to plenty of shot clock-draining possessions. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
11-12-22 | Purdue +6.5 v. Illinois | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 46 h 25 m | Show |
Big Ten Game of the Year. My selection is on Purdue plus the points over Illinois at 12 noon et on Saturday. We missed with the 'over' in Purdue's ugly home loss against Iowa last Saturday as the Boilermakers couldn't get anything going offensively in an eventual 24-3 loss. Plenty of bettors got burned with Purdue as a home favorite in that spot and will want no part of the Boilers as they hit the road to face Illinois here. That's precisely what makes Purdue so attractive as we catch a generous helping of points in a stadium where the Boilers haven't lost since way back in 2010. Illinois is in bounce-back mode as well following a stunning home loss against Michigan State last week. While there have been some dominant defensive performances along the way, I think there have also been some 'smoke and mirrors' involved in the Illini's impressive 7-2 start to the campaign. For Purdue, it's getting down to crunch time as it looks again to gain Bowl eligibility with that elusive sixth win following back-to-back losses against Wisconsin and Iowa, as mentioned. Note that Purdue checks in 21-8 ATS in its last 29 road games after losing three of its last four contests ATS, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Illinois is a woeful 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games after winning five or six of its last seven games ATS, which is also the situation here. Take Purdue (10*). | |||||||
11-11-22 | Fresno State v. UNLV +10 | 37-30 | Win | 100 | 81 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on UNLV plus the points over Fresno State at 10:30 pm et on Friday. Fresno State has won four straight meetings in this series - its longest winning streak all-time since the first matchup between these two squads back in 1996. I look for the Runnin' Rebels to give the Bulldogs all they can handle on Friday, however, as UNLV looks to make a final push toward a Bowl game. To earn Bowl eligibility, the Rebels need two wins in their final three games. While that looks manageable on paper, a win here would all but assure it of a spot with games against Hawaii and Nevada remaining. We won with the Rebels plus the points against San Diego State last Saturday. In that game, UNLV welcomed back its starting quarterback and running back and effectively shortened the game, leaning on its defense to stay competitive and ultimately earn the cover (which I realize meant nothing to the players in the grand scheme of things). It was a solid effort that should provide some confidence as it tries to finally snap its four-game skid here against Fresno State. The Bulldogs got off to an awful start this season but have since reeled off four straight victories and need just one more win to become Bowl eligible. They scored 55 points in a rout of lowly Hawaii last week but that doesn't change the fact that it's been a struggle for the most part offensively, even with QB Jake Haener healthy, as he was last week. Keep in mind, just two games back they forced five turnovers against aforementioned San Diego State but still needed all of the offense they could muster in a 32-28 win. The fact that they allowed 28 points against a punchless, dare I say broken Aztecs offense was telling. Here, we'll note that Fresno State is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games after scoring 31+ points in consecutive contests heading in. Meanwhile, UNLV is 4-1 ATS in its last five games when coming off a SU road loss but ATS cover, as is the case here. Take UNLV (8*). | |||||||
11-11-22 | Cavs v. Warriors UNDER 229 | 101-106 | Win | 100 | 15 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Friday. The Cavs are coming off consecutive high-scoring affairs, shooting north of 50% in both of those contests but also allowing the opposition to eclipse the 50% shooting mark. The pace certainly didn't dictate those totals of 236 and 247 points, however, with the Cavs getting off 83 and 86 field goal attempts while holding their opponents to just 79 and 76. Noting that Cleveland has held each of its last four opponents to 87 or fewer FG attempts and 40 or fewer made field goals, I look for the Cavs to lean on their defense to try to bring an end to their first losing streak of the season here. Golden State has limited four of its last five opponents to 88 or fewer FG attempts. The outlier came last time out - a game in which the Warriors held Sacramento to just 37 made field goals on 91 attempts (that game stayed 'under' the total). On the flip side, the Warriors opened the campaign by knocking down 41+ field goals in six straight games. Since then, they've eclipsed the 40 field goal mark only twice in five games. Also note that they've gotten off 88 or fewer FG attempts in three of their last four games. Finally, I'll point to the fact that last year's two meetings between these teams totalled just 193 and 178 points. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
11-11-22 | Colorado v. USC UNDER 66.5 | Top | 17-55 | Loss | -110 | 81 h 48 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and USC at 9:30 pm et on Friday. After getting involved in three straight high-scoring shootouts - two resulting in victories - I can't help but feel the Trojans are looking to catch their breath in what should be a layup against lowly Colorado on Friday. USC needed all the offense it could get in posting wild wins over Arizona and California over the last two weeks. Here, it finally finds itself back in a 'name your score' type of contest against a Buffaloes squad licking its wounds off a 49-10 dismantling at the hands of Oregon last Saturday. Colorado has been held to 20 or fewer points in eight of nine games this season with the only outlier coming in a 42-34 loss to Arizona State two weeks ago - a game where the Buffaloes still mustered only 359 total yards of offense. While USC's offense has been rolling along, there has been an apparent ceiling with it topping out at 45 points over its last eight games (it did score 66 in its season-opener against Rice). I'm not convinced that will be enough to get this one 'over' the lofty total as Colorado isn't likely to end many drives with 7's against a talented Trojans defense that should be in a foul mood after allowing 35 points against an oft-punchless Cal offense last Saturday. You would have to go back seven meetings in this series, all the way to 2014, to find the last time these two teams combined to put up more than 66 total points (which is the posted total at the time of writing). Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a perfect 3-0 the last three times Colorado has come off consecutive losses against Pac-12 opponents in which it yielded 31+ points. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 5-1 in USC's last six contests after gaining 450+ total yards in consecutive games, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
11-11-22 | Southern v. Arizona -27 | 78-95 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona minus the points over Southern at 9 pm et on Friday. With this game totalled in the 150's, I expect Arizona to make things very uncomfortable for Southern in a fast-paced environment in Tucson on Friday. The Wildcats erupted for 117 points in their season-opening win over Nicholls State, despite turning the basketball over 24 times in that contest. Incredibly, Arizona missed only 15 field goal attempts in the entire game. Southern is coming off a SU loss but ATS cover against UNLV, falling by a score of 66-56. Southern made good on just 19 field goals in that game and now faces a much tougher challenge against the Wildcats. Take Arizona (8*). | |||||||
11-11-22 | Sharks v. Stars UNDER 6.5 | 5-4 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Jose and Dallas at 8:35 pm et on Friday. The Sharks gave up five goals for a second straight game in last night's defeat at the hands of the Blues. San Jose has now lost five straight games and desperately needs to button things up defensively as it heads to Dallas on Friday. It should have James Reimer back between the pipes and that's a positive as he's been the superior goaltender over backup Kaapo Kahkonen (who started last night's game) this season. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 165-113 with the Sharks having allowed five or more goals in their previous game and 19-5 with San Jose's last four games having totalled seven or more goals, which is also the case here. Dallas comes off a 5-1 loss in Winnipeg and that's notable as the 'under' has cashed five of six times it has followed up a loss by four or more goals against a division opponent over the last three seasons. The 'under' is also a long-term 47-29 with the Stars coming off four consecutive 'over' results, which is the case here. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
11-11-22 | East Carolina +5 v. Cincinnati | 25-27 | Win | 100 | 79 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on East Carolina plus the points over Cincinnati at 8 pm et on Friday. Cincinnati has taken five straight meetings in this series and you would have to go all the way back to 2001 to find the last time East Carolina won a road game against the Bearcats. With that being said, I believe the Pirates have as good a shot at staging an upset as they have in years on Friday night as they look to pull even with the Bearcats at 7-3 overall. While Cincinnati was battling it out in a taxing 20-10 home win over Navy this past Saturday, East Carolina was home and cool on its bye week following three consecutive victories, culminating with a 27-24 road upset win over BYU the Friday previous (we won with the 'under' in that game). While known for their offensive prowess, the Pirates can play some defense as well, as we saw down the stretch in that critical win over the Cougars in hostile territory. This isn't the same Cincinnati squad we've seen in years' past as there's no Desmond Ridder to lean on at quarterback and it has shown as the Bearcats have topped out at 29 points over their last four games, failing to reach 300 passing yards in any of their last five contests. That's fine if the running game is rolling but that's not the case with Cincinnati right now as it has gained just 95 yards on 37 rush attempts over the last two games. I like ECU's chances of orchestrating long, clock-eating drives in an effort to effectively shorten proceedings on Friday. Note that the Pirates check in 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog while Cincinnati is a woeful 2-7 ATS in its last nine contests after committing one or less turnovers in consecutive games, as is the case here. Take East Carolina (8*). | |||||||
11-11-22 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff v. Oklahoma -28 | 58-66 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma minus the points over Arkansas-Pine Bluff at 8 pm et on Friday. Arkansas-Pine Bluff went into Fort Worth and gave TCU the scare of all scares in its season-opener, losing by a single point as a 35.5-point (!) underdog. Meanwhile, Oklahoma lost outright as a 16.5-point favorite at home against a good Sam Houston State squad. I have no trouble getting behind the Sooners in this bounce-back spot, noting that Pine Bluff is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games when priced as a road underdog of between 24.5 and 30 points, as is the case here. Pine Bluff is in for a major letdown after scoring 87 points (it needed 82 field goal attempts and 25 forced turnovers to get there) against Champion Baptist last time out. While the Sooners did lose their opener, they actually held Sam Houston State to 21-of-64 shooting from the field. Take Oklahoma (8*). | |||||||
11-10-22 | Alabama State v. USC -24.5 | 58-96 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on USC minus the points over Alabama State at 11 pm et on Thursday. USC took it on the chin in its season-opener, falling in a stunner against Florida-Gulf Coast (it lost by 13 points as an 18.5-point favorite). That should get the Trojans attention as they prepare to bounce back against a much more manageable opponent in Alabama State on Thursday night. Alabama State lost by a whopping 41 points in its season-opener against UAB on Monday. While the Hornets did get off 76 field goal attempts in that game, few were of the high quality variety as they ultimately knocked down only 24 of them in a losing effort. Lost in USC's upset loss against FGCU was the fact that it held the Eagles to 24-of-64 shooting. Sloppy play was the story as the Trojans turned the basketball over 15 times. I expect to see a much cleaner performance from USC on Thursday as it gets out and runs after being limited to only 52 field goal attempts against a stingy FGCU defense on Monday. This is as good as it gets in terms of 'get right' spots in the first week of the season. Take USC (8*). | |||||||
11-10-22 | Sharks v. Blues UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between San Jose and St. Louis at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams are struggling mightily right now with St. Louis' issues coming completely out of left field giving all of the talent on its roster, not to mention the fact that it had gotten off to a perfect 3-0 start this season. Since then, the Blues have suffered eight consecutive losses and it's no secret what the problem has been as they simply can't score with any consistency. St. Louis has mustered two goals or less in eight of its last nine games. While the Sharks have been sieve-like defensively of late, they do come off a bye week of sorts, having not played since Saturday. They should be pleased to be hitting the road, where they've played a much cleaner brand of hockey, allowing only 2.7 goals per game. They don't figure to find much success breaking through offensively, however, as they've averaged just 2.0 goals per game on the road and you have to figure Blues head coach Craig Berube gave his team an earful following Tuesday's dreadful defensive effort in a 5-1 loss in Philadelphia. Note that the 'under' is 13-2 in the Blues last 15 games following eight or more consecutive losses, resulting in an average total of just 4.7 goals. Meanwhile, the Sharks have seen the 'under' go 19-4 in their last 23 games after playing four consecutive games in which seven or more total goals were scored, which is also the situation here, leading to an average total of just 4.8 goals. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
11-10-22 | Southern Illinois v. Oklahoma State -7.5 | Top | 61-60 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Oklahoma State minus the points over Southern Illinois at 8 pm et on Thursday. Off a 94-63 dismantling of Arkansas-Little Rock, Southern Illinois is getting some support at the current number against Oklahoma State on Thursday. I'm not convinced that support is warranted, however. The Salukis quite simply shot the lights out in their season-opener, knocking down 32-of-55 field goal attempts. My concern is they gave Little Rock 18 extra possessions thanks to turnovers, affording them a whopping 64 field goal attempts. Little Rock just couldn't take advantage. Oklahoma State returns four starters from last year's team and while it was also careless with the basketball in its opener, turning it over 17 times, it also forced 19 turnovers. That was the Cowboys M.O. last season and I believe it will be true again in 2022-23. In stark contrast to Southern Illinois, Oklahoma State made good on just 26-of-60 FG attempts in its opener against Texas-Arlington, never sniffing out an ATS cover as a -20.5-point favorite. On a positive note, it limited Arlington to only 59 FG attempts (making good on only 21 of them). I look for the Cowboys to find their shooting legs here and ultimately pull away for a convincing victory. Take Oklahoma State (10*). | |||||||
11-10-22 | Hornets v. Heat UNDER 217.5 | Top | 112-117 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
Southeast Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Charlotte and Miami at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. The Hornets are mired in a serious shooting slump right now, due in part to injuries to key players but also just as a result of what looks like a broken offense. They don't figure to pick themselves up off the mat against one of the league's best defensive teams in the Heat on Thursday. Note that Charlotte has knocked down just 36, 33, 32, 42 and 34 field goals over its last five games. In the one outlier the Hornets still scored only 100 points in an eight-point home loss against the Wizards. On a positive note, we have seen Charlotte limit its opponents scoring opportunities to a certain extent, yielding just 84, 80 and 75 field goal attempts over its last three contests. The Hornets last two opponents, the Wizards and Blazers, have quite simply shot the lights out, something I don't envision the Heat doing on Thursday. Miami is in a bit of a slump of its own, making good on 40 or fewer field goals in five of its last six games. The pace still isn't there for the Heat as they've hoisted up fewer than 90 FG attempts in nine straight games - of course that's partly by design. Few teams have been as stingy defensively as the Heat check in having allowed 76, 84, 86, 80 and 72 FG attempts over their last five games. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 23-11 in the Hornets last 34 games following consecutive ATS losses while the Heat have seen the 'under' go an incredible 10-1 in their last 11 home games after losing two of their last three contests, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
11-10-22 | Tulsa v. Memphis -6.5 | Top | 10-26 | Win | 100 | 55 h 21 m | Show |
AAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Memphis minus the points over Tulsa at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. There was reason to be optimistic about Memphis' Bowl chances entering the 2022 campaign. The Tigers opened with a tough matchup on the road against Mississippi State but from there, reeled off four straight wins and certainly appeared to be in the driver's seat in the AAC. Since then, however, the Tigers haven't gotten any breaks on their way to four consecutive losses. I'm not ready to write off Memphis just yet. Of those four losses, only two came by more than two points and none by more than 10 points with the Tigers putting up 28+ points themselves in all four contests. They face an uphill battle needing two wins in their final three games to gain Bowl eligibility but there's certainly a path to get there. It has to start with a win over Tulsa on Thursday. This has been a fairly disastrous season for the Golden Hurricane, due in part to an injury to QB Davis Brin. Even if Brin is good to go for this game, there's no guarantee Tulsa will be able to put enough points on the board to stay in contention for four quarters. Last week's two-touchdown defeat at home against Tulane illustrated how the season has gone for Tulsa as it failed to reach the end zone until the final minute of the first half - after the Green Wave had already jumped ahead 17-3. It never found the end zone again after that late first half score. Keep in mind, this is a Golden Hurricane squad that at one point gave up four touchdown drives in a 14-minute stretch against Navy and it's methodical triple-option attack earlier this season. They'll certainly have their hands full with Memphis' offense which is led by a baller in QB Seth Henigan. Tulsa has a good one in WR Keylon Stokes but I expect Memphis to give him plenty of attention in this one. Note that the Golden Hurricane will be trying to win consecutive meetings in this series for the first time since reeling off four straight wins over Memphis from 2005 to 2010. The two teams have met seven times since then with Memphis going 2-0 SU and ATS off a loss in this series over that stretch, with those two victories coming by scores of 40-20 and 41-14. Take Memphis (10*). | |||||||
11-10-22 | Sacred Heart v. Rutgers -20.5 | 50-88 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Rutgers minus the points over Sacred Heart at 7 pm et on Thursday. These two teams last met a little under two years ago with Rutgers winning by 23 points despite making just one three-pointer and knocking down just 5-of-15 free throw attempts. Obviously both teams have undergone considerable personnel changes since then but I don't anticipate a much different result with Sacred Heart in a letdown spot off a win and cover over Hartford and Rutgers appearing to be in midseason form in a 75-35 dismantling of Columbia in its season-opener. The Scarlet Knights turned the Lions over a whopping 25 times in that lopsided victory. Sacred Heart likes to play up-tempo, most recently affording Hartford 61 field goal attempts in its season-opening victory. That plays right into the hands of the Scarlet Knights, who made good on 31-of-72 field goal attempts against Columbia. Rutgers can certainly make Sacred Heart uncomfortable here with a smothering defense that limited Columbia to only 47 FG attempts last time out. Take Rutgers (8*). | |||||||
11-09-22 | Cavs -5 v. Kings | 120-127 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Sacramento at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. I see this as a smash spot for the Cavaliers as they look to bounce back from a two-point loss against the Clippers in Los Angeles two nights ago. That was a back-to-back and three-in-four spot for Cleveland. Here, it should benefit from having had yesterday off in the California sunshine as it looks to get back on track against a road-weary Kings squad that wrapped a four-game in eight-night road trip that took it from East to West, wrapping up with Monday's stop in San Francisco. The Kings have been extremely vulnerable defensively this season - as expected - allowing 43, 44, 43 and 44 made field goals in regulation time over their last four contests and 41+ made field goals in seven of their last eight games overall. Meanwhile, Sacramento has been held to 37, 41, 41 and 37 made field goals in regulation time over its last four contests and has gotten off 86 or fewer field goal attempts in five of its last six overall. That doesn't bode well as it prepares to face a smothering Cavs defense that has limited its last three opponents to 83, 87 and 79 FG attempts and seven of 10 opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals this season. Cleveland has been thriving offensively, hitting 41+ field goals in seven of its last nine games including 42 or more in three of its last four contests. That's despite playing at a fairly slow pace (it has gotten off fewer than 90 FG attempts in six of its last seven games and 81, 84 and 83 over its last three contests). Here, the pace could tick up and in that situation I'm confident the Cavs can go off offensively. Take Cleveland (8*). | |||||||
11-09-22 | Lakers v. Clippers OVER 220 | Top | 101-114 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between the Lakers and Clippers at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. We're working with a considerably lower total than we saw in the first matchup between these in-city rivals this season. That game was of the low-scoring variety with the Clippers prevailing by a 103-97 score. Here, I'm expecting a different story to unfold, at least as far as the total is concerned. Few teams are struggling to defend as badly as the Lakers. They've allowed five of their last six opponents to get off 95+ field goal attempts with six of their last seven foes knocking down 41+ field goals. In fact, three of their last four opponents have made good on a whopping 47+ field goals. Meanwhile, the Clippers come in on a bit of an offensive run, knocking down 40+ field goals in four straight games - despite getting off only 84, 80, 87 and 79 FG attempts over that stretch. On the flip side, we've yet to see the Clips really lock in defensively as they continue to miss super-stopper Kawhi Leonard due to injury. Seven of the Clippers last 10 opponents have made good on 40+ field goals. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 15-4 in the Lakers last 19 road games (which this technically is) after losing three of their last four contests, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 237.8 points. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
11-09-22 | Grizzlies -6.5 v. Spurs | Top | 124-122 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
Southwest Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Memphis minus the points over San Antonio at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Spurs offense has cooled considerably following a hot start to the campaign while at the same time their defensive play has sagged, leading to a 1-3 ATS ledger over their last four games. While they did manage to eke out an ATS cover against Denver on Monday, I look for a different story to unfold as the Grizzlies roll into town on Wednesday. Memphis has done a nice job of pushing the pace offensively this season, hoisting up 91+ field goal attempts in each of its last three games and eight of its 11 contests overall. That spells trouble for a Spurs squad that has yielded 40+ made field goals in seven straight games, including a whopping 47+ in five of those contests. Meanwhile, San Antonio has gotten off 88 or fewer field goal attempts in five of its last six games. Last time out the Spurs attempted just 82 field goals but shot the lights out, ultimately earning the cover in a six-point defeat at the hands of the Nuggets. Here, I'm not convinced the Grizzlies will be as forgiving, noting that they've held three of their last four opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals and seven of their last eight to 89 or less FG atttempts. Take Memphis (10*). | |||||||
11-09-22 | Bucks v. Thunder +7.5 | Top | 136-132 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. We missed with the Thunder in this same matchup on Saturday as Oklahoma City simply couldn't knock down its shots and ultimately fell by double-digits in Milwaukee. Having now dropped four straight meetings with the Bucks, the Thunder will obviously be up for this return match in Oklahoma City on Wednesday and I look for them to challenge for the outright win. While the Thunder have now dropped three consecutive games both SU and ATS, I'm still a believer in what they're doing and feel they have the perfect formula to cash tickets as sizable underdogs, as is the case tonight. Note that OKC has afforded itself plenty of scoring opportunities on a game-by-game basis, getting off 93+ field goal attempts in eight of 10 games to date (aided by overtime on one occasion). It has also made good on 41+ field goals in eight contests. On the flip side, the Thunder check in having limited seven of their last nine opponents to 90 or fewer field goal attempts. Only one of their last five opponents has knocked down 40+ field goals. While most will look to back the Bucks in this bounce-back spot off an ugly loss to the Hawks in Atlanta two nights ago, I don't envision them winning by margin, noting that they've yielded 92+ field goal attempts to five of their last seven opponents. Meanwhile, they've yet to find their rhythm offensively, knocking down 38, 43, 41, 38 and 36 field goals over their last five games. Take Oklahoma City (10*). | |||||||
11-09-22 | Buffalo v. Central Michigan UNDER 54.5 | Top | 27-31 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 12 m | Show |
MAC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Buffalo and Central Michigan at 7 pm et on Wednesday. We missed with the 'under' in both of these teams' games last week but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as the Bulls and Chippewas match up on Wednesday. Buffalo turned the football over three times in its 45-24 road loss against Ohio last week. Interestingly, the Bulls have forced a whopping eight turnovers over their last two games yet still scored 'only' 58 points combined in those contests. You would have figured all of those extra possessions would lead to more of a points explosion. Here, they'll be facing a Central Michigan squad that will be ultra-focused on taking care of the football after turning it over a whopping eight times itself over its last two games. It's also interesting to note that despite the Chips giving their last two opponents all of those extra possessions they 'only' gave up 56 points over those two games. Both teams want to run the football. Note that Buffalo hasn't thrown for 300+ yards since back on September 10th against FCS squad Holy Cross. Meanwhile, Central Michigan hasn't thrown for 300+ yards since Week 1 against Oklahoma State when it was in comeback mode for most of the game and racked up 424 yards through the air. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 10-2 in Buffalo's last 12 games when playing on the road after a road loss against a MAC opponent, resulting in an average total of just 50.1 points in that situation. The 'under' is also 4-2 in the Bulls last six games after their previous two contests totalled 60+ points. CMU has seen the 'under' cash four of the last times it has come off a game where it lost the turnover battle by at least two. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
11-08-22 | Ohio v. Miami-OH +2.5 | Top | 37-21 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
MAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami-Ohio plus the points over Ohio at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. I like the way this spot sets up for the Redhawks as they come off their bye week knowing they need two victories in their final three games to earn Bowl eligibility. Anything other than a Bowl appearance would be a disappointment after they not only reached one but defeated North Texas in that contest last December. Miami-Ohio's offense hasn't put up the same numbers it did a year ago although it's worth noting that unit didn't really get rolling until November. Ohio has reeled off four straight victories, making it six on the season so it has already gained Bowl eligibility. I didn't come away overly impressed despite the lopsided nature of its 45-24 win over Buffalo last week. The Bulls offered very little defensive resistance in that game but I expect Miami-Ohio to provide a much more difficult challenge in that regard here. I mentioned that the Redhawks offense didn't really get rolling until November last season. That's been par for the course as Miami-Ohio checks in 77-51 ATS in its last 128 games played in the second half of the season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 3.5 points along the way. Here, the Redhawks will be playing with revenge after dropping a tough 35-33 decision on the road against Ohio last year. They were actually shut out in the entire first half in that game and couldn't find any semblance of a ground game, but still hung in there and lost by 'only' two points. Note that the underdog has cashed in each of the last three meetings in this series (last year Ohio was a +7 home underdog). Here, we'll also note that the Bobcats are just 3-6 ATS in their last nine games as a favorite while Miami-Ohio checks in a profitable 5-3 ATS in its last eight games after losing two of its last three contests ATS, as is the case here. Take Miami-Ohio (10*). | |||||||
11-08-22 | Golden Knights v. Maple Leafs -117 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -117 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Toronto over Vegas at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Maple Leafs have proven to be a streaky team in recent years and this season has been no different. Toronto entered the start of the month having dropped four straight games. Since then, they've reeled off three straight wins, including a near-perfect road game in Carolina on Sunday. The Golden Knights come in red hot as well, winners of seven games in a row. That streak started with a victory over these same Leafs in Las Vegas. It's worth noting, however, in nine previous matchups between these two teams, the Knights have never managed to post consecutive victories, failing to do so in each of their last two tries, which both came in Toronto. Interestingly, the Leafs are an incredible 23-2 in their last 25 home games following a road game, which is the situation here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.9 goals in that spot. It's worth noting that the Knights had been playing every other day going back to October 28th. Here, they come off back-to-back off days and I look for Toronto to get the jump on them as a result on Tuesday. Take Toronto (10*). | |||||||
11-08-22 | Mercer +1 v. East Carolina | 75-77 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Mercer over East Carolina at 7 pm et on Tuesday. East Carolina does come out of the larger conference but as the line indicates, I don't think it is the better team in this matchup, at least not at this early stage of the season. The Pirates are in a bit of a transition year, with a new head coach and a number of new faces in the lineup. East Carolina loses its top three scorers from last season and while the cupboard is by no means bare, I do think it's going to take some time for this squad to come together. The Bears on the other hand, return three of five starters from last season and I expect them to use this game as a launching point as they build toward a showdown against Florida State in Tallahassee later this month. Note that Mercer has been comfortable playing in this pointspread range, going 10-6 ATS in its last 16 games where the line was set between +3 and -3. In the same pointspread range, ECU has gone just 4-8 ATS in its last 12 contests. That's not to mention the fact that the Pirates home court advantage has been virtually non-existent, at least from an ATS perspective, as they've gone just 12-16 ATS in their last 28 lined home games. Take Mercer (8*). | |||||||
11-07-22 | Nets v. Mavs UNDER 215.5 | 94-96 | Win | 100 | 15 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Brooklyn and Dallas at 9:45 pm et on Monday. The first matchup between these two teams this season featured a much higher posted total and that game ended up reaching a whopping 254 points, aided by overtime. Here, I'm anticipating a much lower-scoring affair. Note that the Nets continue to struggle to just get shots off, let alone knock them down. While there was an outlier of a 50 made field goal performance in a rout of Washington on Friday (we still won with the 'under' in that game), they've been held to 84 or fewer field goal attempts in four of their last five games. Now they face a stingy Mavericks defense that has held four straight opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts and their last three foes to fewer than 40 made field goals. On the flip side, Dallas has gotten off 86 or fewer FG attempts in six straight contests. It shot the lights out in each of its last two games (50% or better in both contests) yet still scored 'only' 103 and 111 points. Brooklyn has been stingy in its own right, holding its last four opponents to 87, 89, 83 and 87 FG attempts. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
11-07-22 | Nuggets v. Spurs OVER 231 | Top | 115-109 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 8 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and San Antonio at 9:40 pm et on Monday. These two teams just met on Saturday, posting an 'under' result as the Nuggets rolled to a 126-101 victory. We've seen an adjustment to the total in advance of Monday's rematch but I believe it's moving in the wrong direction. You could argue that San Antonio is the league's worst defensive team right now. The Spurs have allowed their last six opponents to stuff the boxscore, knocking down 52, 47, 40, 57, 42 and 53 field goals. While they did limit Denver to only 80 field goal attempts on Saturday, that was on the road. It's been a different story at home, where San Antonio has allowed four of its five opponents to get off 94+ field goal attempts. It's been a similar story for the Nuggets on the road, where they've allowed all five of their opponents to make good on 42+ field goals. Prior to Saturday's game, Denver had allowed each of its previous four opponents to attempt 90+ field goals. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
11-07-22 | Ravens v. Saints UNDER 47 | Top | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 22 h 54 m | Show |
MNF Total of the Year (1H). My selection is on the first half ‘under’ between Baltimore and New Orleans at 8:15 pm et on Monday. With both teams missing a number of key contributors on offense and both confident off wins last week, not looking to relinquish the momentum here, I’m anticipating a relatively low-scoring first half on Monday night in New Orleans. Note that the first half ‘under’ is a perfect 6-0 with Baltimore coming off three ATS losses in its last four games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average first half total of just 13.3 points. Meanwhile, the first half ‘under’ is 11-3 with the Saints listed as an underdog over the last two seasons, which is also the situation here, leading to an average first half total of 19.9 points in that spot. Without Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman - their two biggest offensive threats apart from Lamar Jackson - I look for the Ravens to take a more methodical approach on offense, at least early in this game. Meanwhile, the Saints will be wary of QB Andy Dalton's tendency to turn the ball over (remembering that ugly Thursday night loss in Arizona two games back) against an opportunistic Ravens defense. I'm confident we'll see the Saints offense run through RB Alvin Kamara for the most part on Monday, noting that the Ravens have yielded 4.4 yards per rush this season. New Orleans best chance at winning this game likely comes from churning out long, clock-eating drives in an effort to shorten the game and give Jackson as few opportunities as possible to make an impact. Take the first half ‘under’ (10*). | |||||||
11-07-22 | Suns v. 76ers UNDER 217 | 88-100 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Philadelphia at 8:10 pm et on Monday. You'd be hard-pressed to find two teams playing better defensive basketball than the Suns and 76ers right now. While both of last year's meetings went 'over' the total we're dealing with tonight (at the time of writing), I believe the number will prove too high this time around. Phoenix wrapped up a split in a two-game home set with the Blazers, putting on a defensive clinic in Saturday's blowout victory, holding Portland to just 30-of-79 shooting. The Suns have now limited five straight opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts and seven of nine foes to 38 or fewer made field goals this season. It's a similar story for the Joel Embiid-less 76ers. They held the Knicks to 37-of-80 shooting last time out and have limited each of their last four opponents to 81 or fewer FG attempts. On the flip side, however, they've knocked down fewer than 40 field goals in six of their last nine games overall. After a hot start to the season, the Suns shooting has cooled off as well as they've made good on 41, 36 and 35 field goals over their last three games, three of their four lowest FG totals of the season. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
11-07-22 | Hofstra v. Princeton OVER 151 | 83-77 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Hofstra and Princeton at 7:30 pm et on Monday. These two teams met last season with Hofstra prevailing by a score of 81-77. That was a game that saw just 21 made three-pointers and only 15 free throw attempts. Both teams have some talent to replace this season - Princeton in particular with three starters from last year's team having moved on. The cupboard is by no means bare, however. Hofstra adds Tyler Thomas from Sacred Heart, where he averaged over 19 points per game last season and could challenge Aaron Estrada for CAA Player of the Year - an award won by Estrada in 2021-22. While we're dealing with a higher posted total in this matchup than we saw in last year's meeting, I don't believe it will prove to be high enough. Note that the 'over' is 25-10 in Hofstra's last 35 games as a road underdog of three points or less, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 153.4 points. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 10-2 in Princeton's last 12 non-conference tilts, also averaging a total of 153.4 points in those contests. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
11-07-22 | Blues v. Bruins OVER 6.5 | 1-3 | Loss | -104 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and Boston at 7:05 pm et on Monday. If the Blues are going to finally bust out of their slump, it's not likely to be a low-scoring victory (they've yielded a whopping 23 goals in their last four games and 4+ goals in five of their last six contests). That's because they have what has been one of the worst goaltending tandems in the league so far this season in Jordan Binnington and Thomas Greiss. Regardless who starts in goal on Monday, I'm confident we'll see the Bruins bounce back offensively following a 2-1 defeat at the hands of the Maple Leafs on Saturday. Note that Boston is still averaging an impressive 4.2 goals per game this season. Meanwhile, the Blues are giving up 3.9 goals per contest. I do think there's reason to believe the Blues can break through offensively here, however, noting that they've averaged 3.2 goals the 40 times they've come off consecutive losses by 3+ goals, as is the case here. Better still, they check in averaging 3.9 goals in their last 37 road games where the total has been set at 6.0 or higher, which is also the situation tonight. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
11-06-22 | Jazz +3.5 v. Clippers | 110-102 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Sunday. The Clippers have cashed in a favorite role in each of their last two games but I don't think we should make a habit of backing this team laying points. Note that Los Angeles continues to have a tough enough time getting shots off, hoisting up 87 or fewer field goal attempts in all nine games this season and 84 or fewer on seven occasions. Meanwhile, the Jazz are getting most of the attention due to their scoring prowess, but they can play some defense as well, limiting four of their last five opponents to 88 or fewer field goal attempts. The only team that topped that number over that stretch was Memphis in a game Utah won by a score of 121-105. On the flip side, Utah checks in having made good on 42+ field goals in seven of 10 contests this season. The Clips are generally considered to be an elite defensive team but they've yet to really hit their stride in that regard this season, with the Rockets (twice) and Lakers being the only two teams they've held to fewer than 40 made field goals to date. Take Utah (8*). | |||||||
11-06-22 | Seahawks +2 v. Cardinals | Top | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 20 h 24 m | Show |
NFC Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle plus the points over Arizona at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. Not to oversimplify things but I don't think the Cardinals are a very good football team. Meanwhile, Seattle remains as underrated a team as you'll find in the NFL, even off last week's impressive win over the Giants. The Seahawks have already handled the Cardinals once and while Arizona now has WR DeAndre Hopkins at its disposal, I'm not convinced his presence is enough to turn the tide in this rematch. Rookie RB Kenneth Walker has been a massive get for the Seahawks with the injury to Rashaad Penny proving to be a blessing in disguise. That's not to mention the departure of Russell Wilson which has given Geno Smith a run at redemption and he's taken full advantage. Plus we have a Seattle defense that is seemingly getting stronger with each passing week. Take Seattle (10*). | |||||||
11-06-22 | Packers v. Lions UNDER 49.5 | Top | 9-15 | Win | 100 | 17 h 29 m | Show |
NFC Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Green Bay and Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the Lions home loss to the Dolphins last week and were fortunate to do so as Detroit's offense was non-existent for the entire second half. Here, both teams know exactly what to expect from their opponent in this divisional showdown. The Packers defense has been putting the clamps on opposing passing games but has proven vulnerable against the run. Detroit quite simply hasn't shown any tendency to stick with the run, abandoning it on a weekly basis, albeit somewhat game script dependent. Detroit's defense didn't have any answers for the Dolphins multi-pronged offensive attack last week but catch a break here, facing a depleted Packers offense that hasn't been able to get it going for any sustained periods this season. Last year's two matchups in this series were of the high-scoring variety. I think we see a different story here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
11-06-22 | Dolphins v. Bears +4.5 | Top | 35-32 | Win | 100 | 17 h 24 m | Show |
Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday. I can't help but feel bettors are overreacting to the Bears dealing Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith away prior to the trade deadline. I think Chicago's ugly 12-7 home loss to Washington three games back was something of a watershed moment for the team. Since then, they've put up 62 points in splitting a pair of games against New England and Dallas. They made a move to acquire WR Chase Claypool at the trade deadline and while he's unlikely to make an immediate impact here, I do think the Bears offense can feast on a still-undermanned Dolphins secondary. Too many points for the home side here. Take Chicago (10*). | |||||||
11-05-22 | Ducks v. Sharks -135 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -135 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
Pacific Division Game of the Month. My selection is on San Jose over Anaheim at 10:35 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the Sharks in this same matchup earlier this week but I won't hesitate to go back to the well in this 'revenge' spot, noting that the previous contest could have certainly gone either way as it was decided in a shootout. The Ducks check in having allowed a whopping 29 goals over their last six games and figure to get lit up again here. Note that Anaheim is a woeful 6-26 when coming off two wins in their last three games over the last three seasons, outscored by 1.6 goals on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Sharks are a profitable 25-21 after losing three of their last four games over the same stretch, as is the case here. Take San Jose (10*). | |||||||
11-05-22 | California v. USC UNDER 60.5 | Top | 35-41 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 58 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between California and USC at 10:30 pm et on Saturday. After getting involved in consecutive track meets on the road against Utah and Arizona, I look for USC to 'manage' this very winnable matchup with Cal on Saturday. The Golden Bears are mired in another trying campaign having lost four in row entering Saturday's matchup. They've had only two breakout performances offensively, one of those coming against FCS squad Cal-Davis and the other against the aforementioned Arizona Wildcats, who boast one of the worst defenses in the FBS. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 39-21 in Cal's last 60 road games following an 'over' result, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 52.9 points in that spot. The 'under' is also 28-14 in USC's last 42 contests after scoring 37+ points in consecutive games, which is also the situation here, resulting in 54.9 total points on average. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
11-05-22 | Blazers v. Suns -9 | 82-102 | Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Saturday. I think the Suns may have forgotten they actually had to show up to secure the revenge victory over the upstart Blazers last night. While Phoenix shot poorly, Portland seemingly couldn't miss as it pulled out another narrow two-point victory (it won the season's earlier meeting by the same margin at home). Here, I look for the Suns to bounce back. Phoenix has still held seven of its eight opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts this season. Last night marked the first time in four games that it allowed an opponent to make good on more than 38 field goals. Meanwhile, Portland has still yet to get off more than 90 FG attempts in a game this season and while it has managed to slow its last two opponents, it has still yielded 91+ FG attempts to its opponents in four of its last seven games. Prior to this season, the Suns had reeled off three straight wins in this series, including a pair of double-digit victories on this floor. Expect Phoenix to deliver some payback on Saturday. Take Phoenix (8*). | |||||||
11-05-22 | Thunder +7.5 v. Bucks | Top | 94-108 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the Thunder on Thursday as they couldn't contain the Nuggets in the fourth quarter in an eventual 12-point loss. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with them, however, as they hit the road to face the Bucks in Milwaukee. Note that Oklahoma City continues to do a good job of limiting its opponents scoring opportunities, yielding 88 or fewer field goal attempts in regulation time in seven straight games. The Nuggets quite simply shot the lights out against them on Thursday, something I don't expect the banged-up Bucks to do in a back-to-back spot on Saturday. Milwaukee has been defending well, but still allows far too many opportunities for its liking, with four of its last five opponents getting off 92+ field goal attempts. The Thunder figure to be more than capable of taking advantage of those opportunities as they've made good on 41+ field goals in seven straight games and exactly 45 in each of their last two contests. While the Bucks won in a rout the last time these two teams met, a weaker Thunder squad took them to task in last year's meeting here in Milwaukee, losing by only seven points as a double-digit underdog. Take Oklahoma City (10*). | |||||||
11-05-22 | Rockets v. Wolves UNDER 232.5 | 117-129 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams are completely out of sorts offensively right now while both have also shown a pulse defensively of late. I believe this total will prove far too high. Note that Houston has managed to knock down 40+ field goals just once in its last seven games. Minnesota has made good on 41, 40, 37 and 39 field goals in its last four contests. Both teams have limited their opponents tempo to a certain extent lately with Houston holding its last five foes to 90 or fewer field goal attempts. The T'Wolves have yielded fewer than 90 field goal attempts to four straight opponents. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
11-05-22 | Phillies +135 v. Astros | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over Houston at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the Phillies to extend this series to a seventh game with Zack Wheeler on the mound against Framber Valdez on Saturday. Philadelphia has yet to figure Valdez out in two previous looks at him but now they'll be seeing him for the third time in just over a month and I look for them to finally make the necessary adjustments and get to him on Saturday night in Houston. Speaking of adjustments, Wheeler will need to make his after he got rocked for four earned runs in just five innings in Game 2 of this series one week ago tonight. That was his first career outing against the Astros. I'm confident we'll see him bounce back here, noting that he had allowed a grand total of just six earned runs over his previous seven outings going back to September. Both bullpens have been lights out in this series and I expect more of the same here. Take Philadelphia (8*). | |||||||
11-05-22 | Seattle Kraken v. Penguins -189 | 3-2 | Loss | -189 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh over Seattle at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. Getting a win on Saturday is 'mission critical' for the Penguins as they look to finally snap their six-game losing streak before a three-day layoff which precedes a showdown with the rival Capitals on Wednesday in Washington. This is a 'revenge game' for the Pens after they outshot the Kraken but fell by a 3-1 score in Seattle last Saturday. Note that while the Kraken have won three games in a row, they've actually been outshot by a wide 95-79 margin over that stretch. Here, we'll note that Seattle is a woeful 2-12 all-time when coming off a road victory, which is the situation here following its 4-0 shutout win over the Wild on Thursday. Take Pittsburgh (8*). | |||||||
11-05-22 | UNLV +5.5 v. San Diego State | Top | 10-14 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on UNLV plus the points over San Diego State at 7 pm et on Saturday. San Diego State has been fairly high on my fade list this season and I see this as another fine opportunity to do so as the Aztecs face UNLV on Saturday. The Runnin' Rebels are licking their wounds on the heels of three straight losses following a 4-1 start to the campaign. Injuries have had something to do with their slide but the guys that are healthy need to start showing up and I'm confident they will off the bye week. If ever there was a perfect example of how far the Aztecs have fallen it wast last week's fall-from-ahead loss against Fresno State. San Diego State teams of the past would have had no trouble putting that game away with a 28-10 late in the third quarter. But this year's Aztecs squad can't run the football and control the clock the way previous editions have been able to. It seems that the more QB Jalen Mayden is asked to do the more trouble he gets into. With that being said, Virginia Tech transfer Braxton Burmeister certainly wasn't the answer under center either. All told, this is a San Diego State team that struggles to do the little things well, including playing fundamentally-sound defense and I expect the Rebels to take advantage here, even with QB Doug Brumfield still sidelined with a concussion. Keep in mind, Cam Friel was last year's top passer for the team while Harrison Bailey is a Tennessee transfer that most thought would be the starter this year heading into the season. With an extra week of practice I do think we'll see a sharper performance from the UNLV offense here. Take UNLV (10*). | |||||||
11-05-22 | Troy v. UL-Lafayette +4.5 | 23-17 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Louisiana plus the points over Troy at 5 pm et on Saturday. Troy enters this game on the heels of five straight victories but I look for the Trojans to get tripped up on Saturday afternoon. We missed with Louisiana last week as the Ragin' Cajuns got off to a dreadful start on the road against Southern Miss and could never recover, even though they did put up a fight in the second half, ultimately closing the gap (to a certain extent) late. When we last saw Louisiana here at home it routed Arkansas State by a 38-18 score two games back. That marked the team's third straight ATS victory. Troy has an incredible defense but its offense leaves a lot to be desired. The Trojans have manhandled opposing ground attacks but the Ragin' Cajuns have been rolling the ball downhill in that regard, running for 174, 109, 206 and 103 yards over their last four games, with the two higher totals coming here at home. Here, we'll note that Troy is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine games following a win in conference play. Louisiana has cashed ATS each of the last three times it has come off a loss in-conference, which is the situation here. Take Louisiana (8*). | |||||||
11-05-22 | Penn State v. Indiana UNDER 51 | 45-14 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Penn State and Indiana at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the 'under' in heart-breaking fashion in Penn State's eventual lopsided defeat at the hands of Ohio State last Saturday. After a low-scoring first three quarters, things went off the rails in the final frame. It happens. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play. It is noteworthy that Penn State allowed just one Ohio State touchdown until over midway through the fourth quarter in last week's contest. It wasn't until the Nittany Lions were forced to abandon their running game in comeback mode late that mistakes started happening and the Buckeyes capitalized. I do still feel that Penn State has an elite defense. Even in a rout at the hands of Michigan three games back, the Nittany Lions gave up just one touchdown in the entire first half. Offensively, Penn State has a bit of a 'feast-or-famine' nature. This is a tougher matchup than it might appear on paper against the 3-5 Hoosiers. Indiana recently held Michigan to just two touchdowns in the game's first 50 minutes and its defense certainly wasn't to blame in last week's loss at Rutgers as it gave up just two offensive touchdowns and only three offensive scores in total (the Scarlet Knights added an interception returned for a touchdown) in a 24-17 defeat. Offensively, the Hoosiers could only muster one offensive touchdown in that entire game with their other notable score coming on a game-opening kick return touchdown. This is a big game for both teams, albeit for different reasons and noting that last year's matchup totalled only 24 points in a Penn State shutout victory, we'll back the 'under' here. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
11-05-22 | Texas Tech v. TCU OVER 69 | 24-34 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Texas Tech and TCU at 12 noon et on Saturday. I don't have a lot of faith in either of these defenses. Texas Tech's offense took a breather last week against Baylor, putting up only 17 points in a 28-point rout. Perhaps the Red Raiders can be excused for that poor performance after they had scored 37, 28, 31 and 48 points over their previous four games. I certainly expect them to light up a TCU defense that has had little to do with the team's perfect 8-0 start. The Horned Frogs have given up fewer than 28 points only twice all season, first in their season-opener against FCS squad Tarleton State (in a game that totalled 76 points) and then in a blowout victory over Oklahoma (that game reached 79 total points). Save for a rout of West Virginia, Texas Tech's defense has been sieve-like this season, most recently allowing three touchdowns in one eight-minute stretch against Baylor last week, at home no less. These two teams got into the 80's in last year's meeting. Expect another shootout on Saturday. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
11-05-22 | Iowa v. Purdue OVER 38 | Top | 24-3 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 50 m | Show |
Big Ten Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Iowa and Purdue at 12 noon et on Saturday. Iowa opened the season with four 'under' results in its first five games but that changed in a 54-10 rout at Ohio State two weeks ago. That was a bit of a back-breaker of a defeat and from there we saw the Hawkeyes essentially ease off the pressure valve and the result was a 33-point explosion in a 20-point win over Northwestern last week. Now Iowa goes back on the road to face Purdue, and I'm not anticipating the type of defensive slugfest the oddsmakers are projecting. Note that we've seen a strong home-road dichotomy in terms of high and low-scoring games involving the Boilermakers in recent years. That's continued to a certain extent this year. Note that the Boilers have baited the likes of Penn State and Nebraska into back-and-forth shootouts here at home with those two contests totalling 66 and 80 points. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 16-6 in Iowa's last 22 games after losing three of its last four games, resulting in an average total of 50.5 points. Meanwhile, the Boilers have seen their last six games go 'over' the total after winning four or five of their last six contests, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 69.3 points in that spot. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
11-04-22 | Oregon State v. Washington UNDER 54.5 | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 16 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Oregon State and Washington at 10:30 pm et on Friday. Oregon State has had to change things up a bit on offense due to a couple of key injuries to QB Chance Nolan and TE Luke Musgrave but the good news is, it has continued to pile up victories, reeling off three straight wins in Pac-12 play entering Friday's showdown with Washington. While we won with the 'over' in the Huskies victory over Arizona the last time it played on this field, I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'under' in this key home matchup on Friday. I have a lot of respect for the Oregon State defense and I'm confident it can contain an explosive Huskies offense led by QB Michael Penix Jr. Washington wants to throw the football - that's no secret - but the Beavers boast one of the best and most underrated secondaries in the nation in my opinion. On the flip side, Oregon State has shifted to a more balanced attack in the absence of Nolan under center. Note that the Beavers have completed 17 or fewer passes in four of their last five contests. Washington's defense prides itself on its ability to snuff out opposing rushing attacks, yielding just 3.3 yards per rush this season. You would have to go back four meetings in this series to find the last time a game went 'over' the total we're working with tonight. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
11-04-22 | Blazers v. Suns -10 | Top | 108-106 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Friday. I would argue that no team has played as well as the Suns out of the gate this season. Of course, playing five of seven games at home has helped. They'll stay home in a revenge-minded role against the Blazers here - the team that handed them their lone loss of the season to date. Keep in mind, Portland is no longer at full strength, missing Damian Lillard and possible Anfernee Simons as well as he's questionable to play due to a foot injury. The Suns have incredibly knocked down 40+ field goals in all seven games this season. On the flip side, they've held six of seven opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. Only one of Phoenix's opponents has managed to get off more than 87 field goal attempts and that was Golden State in a game the Suns won by 29 points. Take Phoenix (10*). | |||||||
11-04-22 | Nets v. Wizards UNDER 225.5 | 128-86 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Brooklyn and Washington at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The 'over' has cashed in the Wizards last two games but the pace certainly hasn't dictated those results. Washington got off 81 and 78 field goal attempts in those two contests while limiting the 76ers to 82 and 84. Yet the two games totalled 229 and 232 points. The Wiz quite simply shot the lights out two nights ago but I don't anticipate a repeat performance here. Brooklyn continues to struggle to get shots off, hoisting up 82, 80 and 75 field goal attempts over its last three contests. On a positive note, the Nets have held four of their last five opponents to fewer than 90 FG attempts and that should be the focus again here as they come off a loss to the Bulls at home (we won with Chicago in that game). Note that the 'under' is 23-12 in the Nets last 35 games where the total was set between 220 and 229.5 points going back to the start of last season, resulting in an average total of just 222.0 points. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
11-04-22 | Heat v. Pacers UNDER 227.5 | 99-101 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Indiana at 7:10 pm et on Friday. While I realize the 'over' is 2-1-1 in each of these teams' last four games, respectively, I don't expect that short-term trend to continue here. Neither team is forcing the issue offensively with the Heat getting off fewer than 90 field goals attempts in seven straight games and the Pacers hoisting up 87 or fewer in three of their last four contests. On the flip side, Miami has yielded just 76, 84 and 86 FG attempts to its last three opponents while Indiana has limited five consecutive opponents to 87 FG attempts or fewer. The last two meetings in this series both went 'over' the total but neither would have surpassed the total we're working with tonight. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
11-04-22 | UMass v. Connecticut UNDER 40 | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between UMass and Connecticut at 7 pm et on Friday. The fact that this game actually means something might be one of the biggest surprises of the college football season. Yes, UConn can gain Bowl eligibility with two wins in its final three games this season and it has to start with a victory here against a very beatable UMass squad. While that may look like a cinch on paper, rarely has anything come easy for the Huskies football program in recent years. I fully expect UConn to 'play it smart' on Friday, leaning heavily on its ground attack in an effort to churn out long, clock-eating drives and effectively shorten this game in the hopes of dashing the Minutemen's upset hopes. UMass has just one victory this season but it's had nothing to do with poor defensive play. The Minutemen have a talented, experienced defense that is capable of snuffing out a one-dimensional Huskies offense. UConn has thrived off of turnovers, forcing 12 in its last four games alone, so you can be sure UMass's gameplan will involve taking care of the football while also relying heavily on its ground game to move the football. This is obviously a very low posted total but I'm confident it will seem unreasonably high by the time halftime rolls around in this one. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
11-04-22 | Duke v. Boston College +11 | 38-31 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston College plus the points over Duke at 7 pm et on Friday. While Duke was celebrating an eight-turnover fuelled upset victory in Miami last Saturday, Boston College was lamenting another missed opportunity as it turned the football over five times in an upset loss at UConn - its first ever defeat at the hands of the Huskies. Here, I do look for the Eagles to show some pride and give the Blue Devils a fight. Note that grabbing the points has been a fruitful venture in this series, with the underdog cashing at a 4-1 ATS clip in five all-time meetings going back to 2006. That's not surprising given the low-scoring nature of this series with none of those contests totalling more than 39 points. Here, we're catching double-digits with the Eagles, noting that Duke is a woeful 6-16 ATS in its last 22 games after posting a win by 10+ points against a conference opponent in its previous contest, as is the case here. Regardless whether QB Phil Jurkovec can go for the Eagles (he's struggled this season anyway), we'll grab the generous helping of points with the home side here. Take Boston College (8*). | |||||||
11-03-22 | Eagles v. Texans UNDER 45 | 29-17 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Houston at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. This has all the earmarks of a game the undefeated Eagles will look to 'manage' on a short week against a very beatable opponent in Houston on Thursday. Philadelphia had been held under 30 points in five straight games before scoring 35 points in a rout of the Steelers last Sunday. While the Texans are just 1-5-1 this season, they do sport a better defense than that of Pittsburgh. That's particularly true against the pass, an area where I don't anticipate Houston getting overly exposed in this one. Instead, look for the Eagles to pound away and ultimately churn out long, clock-eating drives in an effort to shorten this game playing on a short week. The Texans offense is seriously hamstrung with QB Davis Mills suffering from a sophomore slump. Rookie RB Dameon Pierce has been a bright spot and you can run on the Eagles, so there's reason to believe the Texans can move the football at times and ultimately do some clock-eating of their own in this one. As a two-touchdown underdog, it's in Houston's best interest to effectively shorten this game as well in order to keep the Eagles within arm's length for four quarters. It's worth noting that while the Eagles have yielded just shy of 5.0 yards per rush this season, they're now even worse off after losing nose tackle Jordan Davis to injury. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 38-19 the last 57 times the Eagles have come off a game in which they scored 35+ points. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
11-03-22 | Eagles v. Texans +14 | Top | 29-17 | Win | 100 | 32 h 58 m | Show |
TNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Houston plus the points over Philadelphia at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. No one is giving the Texans any sort of chance at springing the upset against the undefeated Eagles on Thursday night. While I'm not about to predict Houston will win this game outright, I do think it can keep within arm's reach for four quarters against Philadelphia. The Eagles had no trouble laying waste to the Steelers on Sunday. That was a far worse defensive team than they'll face on Thursday, however. The Texans actually have some semblance of a pass defense led by rookie corner Derek Stingley. For the Eagles to keep their undefeated record intact I think they'll need to involve their ground attack heavily, effectively shortening this game which plays into our hands with two touchdowns in our back pocket with the Texans. Houston looked lifeless against Tennessee last Sunday as they were mercilessly run all over by RB Derrick Henry. The Eagles don't possess that type of bruising, relentless back. RB Miles Sanders will get his, but again, I'm not anticipating the same sort of beatdown on the Texans defensive front. Offensively, Houston has a workhorse to lean on in the form of RB Dameon Pierce and you can run on these Eagles as they've allowed just shy of 5.0 yards per rush and just lost key run-stopper, nose tackle Jordan Davis to an ankle injury. Like the Eagles, I feel the Texans offensive gameplan will work to shorten this game with several long, clock-churning drives. Note that the Eagles are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite and 1-5 ATS in their last six contests after winning consecutive games ATS. Meanwhile, the Texans have been listed as underdogs of between 10.5 and 14 points just twice over the last three seasons, covering the number on both of those occasions. Take Houston (10*). | |||||||
11-03-22 | Nuggets v. Thunder +6 | 122-110 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Denver at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Thunder in the first matchup between these two teams in Denver back on October 22nd and I won't hesitate to come back with the same play in this rematch in Oklahoma City on Thursday. Obviously, Denver was in a tougher scheduling spot on that night, playing the second of back-to-backs off a big upset win over the defending champion Warriors on San Francisco the night previous. The Thunder were in the midst of a three-game losing streak to open the season, however. Here, OKC enters off four consecutive victories, both SU and ATS. The Thunder have been tremendously consistent offensively, stuffing boxscores to the tune of 41+ made field goals in each of their last six games and 44 or more in each of their last three. They've also done a nice job of limiting their opponents scoring opportunities, relatively-speaking, holding six consecutive opponents to 88 or fewer field goal attempts in regulation time. They've also limited three of their last four opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals, and that includes an overtime period against the Mavericks two games back. The Nuggets on the other hand have allowed three straight and four of their last five opponents to hoist up 90+ field goal attempts. Of their seven opponents so far this season, six managed to knock down 40+ field goals. Take Oklahoma City (8*). | |||||||
11-03-22 | Hurricanes v. Lightning -126 | 4-3 | Loss | -126 | 22 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Carolina at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Lightning have looked like a different team since an embarrassing home loss against the Flyers back on October 18th. That loss dropped the Bolts to 1-3 to start the season. Since then, they've gone 5-1, including a come-from-behind 4-3 win over Ottawa here on home ice two nights ago. I look for them to continue to build positive momentum as they host the Hurricanes on Thursday. Carolina has won back-to-back games but it is seven games removed from its last victory by more than a single goal - illustrating how razor thin its margin for error is at the moment. Note that the Lightning check in 10-1 in their last 11 games following a one-goal victory over a division opponent, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 1.8 goals on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Canes have been outscored by 0.8 goals on average in their last 72 road games following a home victory over a divisional foe, which is also the situation here. Take Tampa Bay (8*). | |||||||
11-02-22 | Pelicans v. Lakers OVER 227 | 117-120 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Wednesday. It took a little while but the Lakers have essentially thrown defense out the window and coming off their first victory of the season, I don't expect them to change a thing as they welcome the Pelicans to Crypto.com Arena on Wednesday. Los Angeles' last three opponents have gotten off 92, 99 and 96 field goal attempts, scoring 110, 111 and 110 points over that stretch. I certainly expect the Pelicans to do a better job of taking advantage of an up-tempo affair, noting that they've knocked down 42+ field goals in five of their six games this season. The Lakers, despite their struggles, have made good on 40+ field goals in four of six contests this season. Here, they'll face a New Orleans squad that has yielded 92+ FG attempts to three of its last five opponents. The scoring opportunities will be there tonight, and I'm confident both teams can take full advantage. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
11-02-22 | Grizzlies -3.5 v. Blazers | 111-106 | Win | 100 | 13 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Memphis minus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Grizzlies got their lunch handed to them in a two-game sweep at the hands of the Jazz in Salt Lake City over the weekend. Here, I look for them to bounce back against the Blazers in Portland. Note that Memphis continues to 'play the right way', limiting its last four opponents to 87, 83, 87 and 89 field goal attempts. Unfortunately, those four opponents shot the lights out, something I don't anticipate the Blazers doing off a scintillating shooting performance of their own. Portland has been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in four of its six games this season and last Friday's rout of the Rockets marked the first time all season the Blazers got off 90+ field goal attempts. Defensively, the Blazers haven't been good. They've yielded 40+ made field goals to their opponents in each of their last five games. Four of their last five opponents got off 91+ FG attempts. Look for the Grizzlies to take full advantage on Wednesday. Take Memphis (8*). | |||||||
11-02-22 | Jazz v. Mavs -5.5 | 100-103 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Utah at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Jazz are off to a stunning 6-2 start to the season and are fresh off sweeping the Grizzlies in a two-game set in Salt Lake City. I can't help but feel they're in the wrong place at the wrong time on Wednesday in Dallas, however. The Mavericks got a bit of a scare at home against the Magic on Sunday, playing in a back-to-back spot off an overtime loss to the Thunder the night previous. Now they're at home, off consecutive days off for the first time in a couple of weeks and I look for them to turn in a much sharper performance on Wednesday. Note that the Mavs have made good on 41+ field goals in four of their last five games. On the flip side, they've held all six opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts this season. The two previous times we've seen them play on 2+ days' rest this season they've shot a combined 50% from the field while holding those two opponents to just 79 and 76 FG attempts. The Jazz are just one game removed from allowing a ridiculous 50 made field goals against Memphis, and the Grizzlies were without Ja Morant in that contest. Five of their last seven opponents have gotten off 90+ FG attempts and should the Mavs get into that range on Wednesday, I'm confident we'll see them hang a crooked number on the scoreboard. Take Dallas (8*). | |||||||
11-02-22 | Jazz v. Mavs UNDER 221.5 | Top | 100-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday. The 'over' has cashed in each of Dallas' last five games as the Mavs have knocked down 41+ field goals in four of those five contests. Keep in mind, we saw two games go to overtime over that stretch. Dallas has limited each of its six opponents to 85 or fewer field goal attempts in regulation time this season and I expect it to keep Utah in check to certain extent here as well. The Jazz had a stretch earlier this season where they got off 93+ field goal attempts in three consecutive games, knocking down 43+ field goals in each of those contests. Since then, they've gotten off just 90, 91, 87 and 89 FG attempts over their last four games. I'm certainly anticipating some regression here after they laid waste to an undermanned Grizzlies defense in a two-game set in Salt Lake City over the weekend, making good on 45 and 42 field goals in those two contests. Different story here as the Mavs build off Sunday's game in which they limited the Magic to only 37 made field goals (that contest still found its way 'over' the total). Take the under (10*). | |||||||
11-02-22 | Astros v. Phillies +102 | 5-0 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over Houston at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. Aaron Nola has not pitched well in his last two starts after turning in a pair of terrific outings to open the postseason. Just as I alluded to with Ranger Suarez last night, who had struggled mightily in his previous start against the Astros in early October, I look for Nola to make the necessary adjustments here and put his team on the brink of a World Series title. Cristian Javier will counter for Houston. He hasn't started since October 22nd when he held the Yankees to just one hit over 5 1/3 shutout innings. The Phillies aren't likely to be easy intimidated at the plate as I get the sense they feel they can hit anyone right now. We'll back them again here. Take Philadelphia (8*). | |||||||
11-02-22 | Central Michigan v. Northern Illinois UNDER 57 | 35-22 | Push | 0 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Central Michigan and Northern Illinois at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Central Michigan's offense has been fairly stagnant since opening the season with a wild 58-44 loss at Oklahoma State. The Chippewas enter with just two victories on the campaign. Last time out, CMU was held out of the end zone until nearly two minutes into the third quarter against Bowling Green. The week previous it could only muster three offensive scores in a 28-21 win over lowly 1-8 Akron (the other score came on a defensive fumble return for a touchdown). The good news is, outside of one bad quarter against Toledo, the Chips have held up reasonably well defensively in MAC play. They draw a favorable matchup against Northern Illinois here. The Huskies also own just two wins on the season. In their most recent game they didn't reach the end zone until the final two minutes of the third quarter against Ohio - their only touchdown of the game. Prior to that they did deliver a 39-10 win over Eastern Michigan. Interestingly, that game opened with an early pick-six in favor of the Huskies but from there they scored a touchdown with just over four minutes remaining in the first quarter but then didn't find the end zone again until the final minute of the third quarter. You get the picture. Both teams are capable of stepping up defensively but also fully capable of going stagnant for extended stretches on offense. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
11-02-22 | Western Michigan v. Bowling Green UNDER 48.5 | 9-13 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Western Michigan and Bowling Green at 7 pm et on Wednesday. The Western Michigan Broncos have had a disappointing season by all accounts, checking in with just three wins through eight games. They have a bit of a quarterback competition on their hands, which is to say no one has really been able to step up and take the reins, even though Jack Salopek was the starter prior to suffering a knee injury two games back. Last time out, the Broncos scored just one touchdown in a 16-10 win over Miami-Ohio, not reaching the end zone until more than midway through the third quarter. Two games back they scored two first half touchdowns but then were shut out over the game's final 31 minutes against a beatable Ohio defense. Bowling Green rolled to a 34-18 win over Central Michigan in its most recent contest. The Falcons did score just three offensive touchdowns in that victory with the other coming on a defensive fumble return for a touchdown. Prior to that there was a two-game stretch where Bowling Green managed just one touchdown against Buffalo (that came in the final six minutes when the outcome had long been decided) and two touchdowns in a narrow 17-13 win over Miami-Ohio, not reaching the end zone until just over seven minutes were left in the second quarter in that contest. I'm not anticipating a ton of offensive fireworks in this key MAC showdown. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
11-02-22 | Wizards v. 76ers UNDER 219 | 121-111 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Philadelphia at 6:10 pm et on Wednesday This is the back half of a home-and-home set between the Wizards and 76ers after Philadelphia pulled out a 118-111 victory on Monday. We're working with a higher posted total in this quick rematch and I believe it will prove too high. Note that the pace certainly didn't dictate a high-scoring affair on Monday. Philadelphia quite simply shot the lights out. The 76ers got off just 82 field goal attempts in that game. In fact, the 76ers have hoisted up 82 or fewer field goal attempts in five consecutive games and 84 or fewer in all eight contests this season. Similarly, the Wizards got off only 81 field goal attempts on Monday. They've made good on just 33, 36 and 38 field goals over their last three contests and have yet to attempt more than 90 shots in a game this season. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
11-02-22 | Sevilla v. Manchester City UNDER 3.5 | 1-3 | Loss | -125 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Sevilla and Manchester City at 4 pm et on Wednesday. Sevilla was embarrassed by Manchester City when these two squads met back in September, dropping a 4-0 decision, on it's home soil no less. Here, in the return match at Etihad Stadium, I look for the Spanish side to take a much more controlled approach and ultimately help keep this one 'under' the lofty total. Note that four of Manchester City's last five matches have stayed 'under' 2.5 total goals. Meanwhile, Sevilla has seen five of its last seven contests go 'under' that same total. With the English side having taken each of the last three meetings between these two squads, and Sevilla scoring only two goals across those three battles, the latter has a slim margin for error here. With that in mind, I do think we see Sevilla lean on its capable defense and also note that keeper Marko Dmitrovic is coming off consecutive tremendous showings against FC Kobenhavn in Champions League action and Rayo Vallecano in La Liga play. I'm not anticipating any sort of breakout performance from the Spanish side offensively as it has been limited to one goal or less in 10 of its last 11 matches across all competitions. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
11-02-22 | Celtic +2 v. Real Madrid | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
Champions League Game of the Month. My selection is on Celtic +2 goals over Real Madrid at 1:45 pm et on Wednesday. Real Madrid blanked Celtic 3-0 when these two squads met in early September. While the Scottish side's hopes of advancing to the final 16 have been dashed, I do expect it to still put up a better fight as these two take part in a return match in Madrid on Wednesday. Celtic enters this contest having gone undefeated in its last five matches across all competitions. To illustrate its fine form, it has struck first in each of those five contests while carrying a lead into halftime in four of them. This will obviously be a stiff challenge for Celtic as Real Madrid searches for a victory to wrap up first place in Group F. With that being said, the Spanish side will be without Karim Benzema and might not have its usual fresh legs here in Champions League action, noting that it just wrapped up a month of October that featured nine fixtures. While Celtic have nothing to play for in this particular tournament, there is the matter of pride and after being shut out at the hands of Real Madrid on home soil two months ago, I'm confident we'll see it rise to the occasion here. It's worth noting that to find the last time Celtic lost a match by 3+ goals, you would have to go all the way back to that previous date with Madrid. Take Celtic +2 goals (10*). | |||||||
11-01-22 | Ducks v. Sharks -125 | 6-5 | Loss | -125 | 14 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Jose over Anaheim at 10:35 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams have struggled in the early going this season but I like what I've seen from the Sharks lately, even if the wins haven't come with much consistency. San Jose is coming off a 4-3 loss against Tampa Bay but still checks in 3-3 over its last six games with the other two losses coming against the Golden Knights and Devils - two teams that are off terrific starts to the season. The Ducks finally snapped their seven-game losing streak with an overtime win over the reeling Maple Leafs on Sunday. During that long losing skid they scored two goals or less on six occasions. I'm not convinced the Ducks are out of the woods just yet and here we'll note that they're 0-10 in their last 10 games after a one-goal victory on home ice, as is the case here, outscored by 2.7 goals on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Sharks are 14-6 in their last 20 games after allowing 3+ goals in three consecutive games, which is also the situation here, outscoring opponents by 0.6 goals on average in that spot. Take San Jose (8*). | |||||||
11-01-22 | Magic v. Thunder -3 | 108-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City minus the points over Orlando at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. I'll lay the short number with the Thunder as they host the reeling Magic on Tuesday night. Orlando checks in 1-6 on the season but the fact that it has gone 2-0 or 1-0-1 ATS in its last two games affords us a reasonable price to fade the Magic here. Orlando has made good on 37 or fewer field goals in three of its last four games and I'm not convinced it will have enough scoring opportunities to keep pace with the Thunder here. Note that Oklahoma City has been as consistent as it gets offensively, knocking down 41+ field goals in five straight games entering this contest. On the flip side, the Thunder have held five straight opponents to 88 or fewer field goal attempts. Take Oklahoma City (8*). | |||||||
11-01-22 | Astros v. Phillies +114 | 0-7 | Win | 114 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over Houston at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. I'll take a shot with the Phillies on Tuesday as they return home after getting what they wanted in Houston, a 1-1 split in the first two games of this series. I like the fact that Ranger Suarez will get the start for Philadelphia here. He struggled in a start against the Astros back in early October but I expect him to make the necessary adjustments here, noting that he gave the Phils a terrific outing against the Padres last round, allowing one earned run over five innings. Philadelphia is 10-6 when Suarez starts in an underdog role this season. Meanwhile, the Astros are just 10-22 in Lance McCullers Jr.'s 32 career starts when priced between +125 and -125 as is the case here. Speaking of adjustments, the Phillies hitters will be looking to make the necessary adjustments as well after McCullers held them to one earned run over six innings back on October 3rd. That was in Houston. I expect a different story to unfold here in Philadelphia. Take Philadelphia (8*). | |||||||
11-01-22 | Buffalo v. Ohio UNDER 58.5 | Top | 24-45 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
MAC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Buffalo and Ohio at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. While Buffalo is coming off an 'over' result, both of these teams are trending to the 'under' lately. The Bulls have seen three of their last four games stay 'under' the total and the same goes for Ohio. The only game that went 'over' the total during that stretch for the Bobcats came against the lowly Akron Zips in a contest where Ohio jumped ahead big early and eased off the gas defensively in a wild 55-34 win. Since then, the Bobcats have seen their last two games total just 47 and 41 points. Both teams want their offense to run through their ground attack. I do think both can find some success in that regard but that likely leads to plenty of long, clock-churning drives. Note that Buffalo has done an excellent job of stamping out opposing passing games, yielding more than 21 completions only twice while having yet to allow an opponent throw for 300+ yards. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 19-6 the last 25 times Ohio has come off three straight wins in conference play with that spot producing an average total of only 45.9 points. The 'under' has gone 8-5 the last 13 times the Bulls have come off a game that totalled 60+ points, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
11-01-22 | Bulls +1.5 v. Nets | Top | 108-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Brooklyn at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. The Bulls are coming off consecutive losses but I like them to bounce back as they catch the Nets in a back-to-back spot off a rare win over the Pacers last night. Brooklyn is still just 2-5 on the season and needed to shoot the lights out to secure a win (but not a cover) against Indiana. Note that the Nets have still only managed to get off 89 or fewer field goal attempts in six of seven games this season. Last night, they hoisted up just 80 shots against the defensively-challenged Pacers. Defensively, Brooklyn has allowed 40+ made field goals in six of seven games. The only occasion where the Nets held an opponent to fewer than 40 made field goals it still lost by double-digits against Milwaukee. Chicago, on the other hand, has held three of its last four opponents to 39 or fewer made field goals. Only one of its seven opponents has managed to get off more than 86 field goal attempts and that was a game it won by 18 points against Boston. The last time these two teams met, Brooklyn won in a rout last March. Keep in mind, the Nets were playing with triple in-season revenge in that spot. Different story here. Take Chicago (10*). | |||||||
11-01-22 | Senators v. Lightning UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Ottawa and Tampa Bay at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams are coming off 'over' results in their most recent game with the Senators notably yielding a whopping 58 shots on goal in a 5-3 loss to the Panthers. They've had a couple of days off to shake off that ugly performance and I fully expect the gritty Sens to rebound with a much sharper performance here. Meanwhile, the Lightning are in a bit of a hangover spot, returning home off a successful three-game road trip to California. The Bolts are unlikely to provide such an onslaught of shots as we saw from the Panthers, noting that they've fired 30 or fewer shots on goal in four consecutive games. Ottawa was on fire offensively for a four-game stretch in mid-October but has now scored just five goals in its last two games. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 11-2 the last 13 times the Senators have played on the road after giving up 5+ goals in their previous game, resulting in an average total of 5.1 goals. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
11-01-22 | Napoli +0.5 v. Liverpool | 0-2 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Napoli +0.5 goals over Liverpool at 4 pm et on Tuesday. We previously won with Napoli in this same matchup back in early September and while we're not being offered such a generous price this time around - rightfully so - I still won't hesitate to go back to the well with the Italian side catching a half-goal. Napoli has incredibly gone undefeated across its last 28 matches in all competitions. It sits atop the Group A table in Champions League play, three points clear of today's opponent, Liverpool. Note also that Napoli has gone undefeated in its last four contests against the Reds, finding the back of the net at least once in all four matches. While some figure Liverpool is 'due' in this spot, that's not a word that belongs in our handicapping arsenal. Take Napoli +0.5 goals (8*). | |||||||
10-31-22 | Bengals v. Browns UNDER 45.5 | Top | 13-32 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
MNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Cleveland at 8:15 pm et on Monday. High-scoring games have been the norm in this series in recent years but I look for a different story to unfold on Monday night in Cleveland. The Browns offense has cooled off considerably following a hot start to the season. After scoring 26, 30 and 29 points in their first three games, they've put up just 20, 28, 15 and 20 points over their last four. Now they face a Bengals defense that I believe is far better than most give it credit for. The Cincinnati offense gets all of the hype with Joe Burrow and Ja'marr Chase going off on a weekly basis (Chase will of course miss this game - more on that in a moment). However, the defense has been outstanding, holding five of seven opponents to 20 points or less this season. Opposing passing games have been completely stymied and it's tough to envision Browns QB Jacob Brissett changing that trend, especially with underrated TE David Njoku slated to miss. Cleveland has topped out at 258 passing yards in a game this season. You know what you're going to get from the Browns as they look to run their offense through RB Nick Chubb (and Kareem Hunt). Theoretically, Cleveland is in line to feast with the Bengals missing key run stoppers D.J. Reader and Josh Tupou. However, rookie Zach Carter and Jay Tufele have stepped up in their absence. I mentioned that Cincinnati will be without WR Ja'marr Chase for this one. His absence can't be understated in my opinion. Yes, the Bengals are saying all of the right things with Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, not to mention TE Hayden Hurst capable of picking up some of the slack. But you just don't replace a guy like Chase. With CB Denzel Ward among those sidelined for the Browns, this is a major break facing the Bengals without their top weapon in the passing game. I really think the Cincinnati offense will flow through RB Joe Mixon in this game as the Browns have proven vulnerable against the run. With that being said, I can't help but feel we'll see plenty of long, clock-churning drives from both offenses. Note that the 'under' is 12-3 in the Bengals last 15 road games and a perfect 10-0 in Cincinnati's last 10 games after being held to fewer than 100 rushing yards in consecutive games, as is the case here. The 'under' is a long-term 48-25 with the Browns playing at home off consecutive losses and 13-4 when playing at home after losing the turnover battle in three straight games. Those angles make sense when you consider the Bengals will likely look to get their ground game going again, most notably Mixon while the Browns do everything they can to take care of the football, perhaps at the expense of aggressiveness in the passing game. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-31-22 | Kings v. Blues -113 | 5-1 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis over Los Angeles at 8:05 pm et on Monday. I really like the way this spot sets up for the Blues to finally snap their four-game losing streak at home against the Kings on Monday. St. Louis hasn't won a game since October 22nd, when it skated to a 2-0 win in Edmonton. I expect the Blues to get back to that type of hard-nosed defensive play here as they catch the Kings off a 4-2 home win over the reeling Maple Leafs on Saturday. Here, we'll note that St. Louis has gone 11-3 the last 14 times it has come off a game in which it allowed 6+ goals, as is the case here following Saturday's 7-4 loss to Montreal, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.0 goal in that situation. The Blues are also 14-4 the last 18 times they've played at home off consecutive losses by 2+ goals, which is also the situation here, outscoring the opposition by 1.3 goals on average in that spot. Keep in mind, the Blues were priced at -170 or worse in their two home matchups against Los Angeles last season. We're being offered a much more reasonable price here thanks to their recent struggles. I expect them to bounce back. Take St. Louis (8*). | |||||||
10-31-22 | 76ers v. Wizards +4.5 | Top | 118-111 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Monday. The 76ers have picked themselves up after dropping the opening game of their current four-game road trip, posting consecutive wins (SU and ATS) over the Raptors and Bulls. Philadelphia is still having a tough enough time just getting shots off, however, noting that it has hoisted up 84 or fewer field goal attempts in all seven games this season. It has quite simply knocked down its shots at an incredibly high rate during its current road trip but I expect it to run into some trouble against the Wizards in Washington on Monday. The Wizards have quietly been locking down their opponents, yet to allow more than 41 made field goals in a game this season. They've limited three of their last five opponents to 81 or fewer field goal attempts. Yesterday, Washington fell by a score of 112-94 in Boston as it shot a miserable 38.8% from the field. Prior to that, the Wiz had knocked down 41+ field goals in all five games this season. Note that Washington took two of three meetings between these two teams last season and has won 30 of the last 50 matchups between these two franchises in the nation's capital. Take Washington (10*). | |||||||
10-30-22 | Magic v. Mavs UNDER 216 | 105-114 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Orlando and Dallas at 7:40 pm et on Sunday. It was a true 'bad beat' for 'under' bettors in the Mavericks 117-111 overtime loss to the Thunder last night. Here, I don't think there's any reason to jump off the 'under' as the Mavs stay home to host the Magic. Orlando posted its first win of the season on Friday, snapping a five-game losing streak to open the campaign. Note that the Magic have gotten off more than 86 field goal attempts just once in six games this season. On the flip side, Orlando has done a pretty good job of slowing its opponents, yielding fewer than 90 field goal attempts in four of six contests while also holding its last two opponents to just 36 and 33 made field goals. Dallas is of course an elite defensive team, limiting all five of its opponents to 85 or fewer FG attempts in regulation time this season. Last night, the Thunder quite simply shot exceptionally well from the field - the second time a Mavs opponent has done that in its last three games. I don't see that trend continuing here. Note that the Mavs offense doesn't play at all that quick of a pace, hoisting up 86 or fewer FG attempts in regulation time in four of five contests. Even with overtime last night, the Mavs still knocked down only 38 field goals. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a perfect 10-0 the last 10 times the Mavs have played for the third time in four nights, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 202.5 points. The 'under' is also 12-2 the last 14 times Dallas has played at home after losing two of its last three games, leading to an average total of 205.9 points. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
10-30-22 | Giants v. Seahawks -3 | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle minus the points over New York at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. Tough spot for the Giants here as they stay on the road for a second straight week and travel across the country to face the upstart Seahawks. I expect this to be a Kenneth Walker game for the Seahawks as he faces a Giants run defense (I use that term loosely) that has been torched for north of 5.7 yards per rush this season. It sounds like Seahawks WR D.K. Metcalf will be good to go after suffering a knee injury last Sunday. While Tyler Lockett missed practice during the week, all indications are that he'll play and start as well. He didn't look any worse for wear in last week's rout of the Chargers. Defensively, Seattle remains a bottom-tier unit albeit with some improvement in recent weeks. Regardless, the presence of Daniel Jones always tends to keep a cap on the G-Men offense, even with RB Saquon Barkley running as well as he has at any point in his career. Take Seattle (8*). | |||||||
10-30-22 | Dolphins v. Lions OVER 51 | Top | 31-27 | Win | 100 | 76 h 44 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. I absolutely love the way this one sets up as a potential shootout inside the friendly confines of Ford Field in Detroit on Sunday. We inexplicably missed with the 'over' in Miami's strange 16-10 win over the Steelers last Sunday night (that contest featured a scoreless second half). The Dolphins jumped ahead early and then eased off the gas against a subpar Steelers squad - something I don't think they can afford to do against the Lions on Sunday. We were also on the 'under' in Detroit's rather uneventful loss in Dallas. I saw a lot of support for the 'over' in that contest last Sunday but I think those 'over' bettors were a week too early as Detroit was still nursing some key contributors back to health (and also lost Aman-Ra St. Brown to concussion protocols early in the game). St. Brown is expected back this week and should pace the Lions in what sets up as a dream matchup against a depleted Dolphins secondary. Detroit has been starved for an offensive breakout over the last two games - scoring a grand total of six points against the Patriots and Cowboys. This looks like an ideal spot for QB Jared Goff and the offense to bounce back with Miami missing Byron Jones, Nik Needham and now strong safety Brandon Jones as well after he tore his ACL. The Fins makeshift secondary did hold up alright against the Steelers, although Pittsburgh wasn't all that aggressive in that game. I expect a different story to unfold here as a banged-up Xavien Howard (he's been dealing with groin/quad injuries all season long) is left on an island against a loaded Lions offense. On the flip side, there's little reason to believe that Detroit's woeful defense can hold up well for a second straight game. We certainly saw flashes of brilliance from the Miami offense in last Sunday's win over the Steelers. QB Tua Tagovailoa looked no worse for wear after suffering multiple concussions, deftly distributing the ball to his playmakers. The Lions have been getting roasted by the better offenses they've faced all season, most notably allowing 5.4 yards per rush attempt. With Miami likely to smash on the ground, that only serves to set up plenty of big plays through the air against a very beatable Lions secondary. I think there's a good chance we see this one go back-and-forth all afternoon long with neither defense able to string together many stops. Note that the 'over' is 7-3 in the Dolphins last 10 games following consecutive 'under' results, which is the situation here. Better still, the 'over' is 9-2 in the Lions last 11 games when priced as a home underdog of a touchdown or less. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-30-22 | Dolphins v. Lions +3.5 | Top | 31-27 | Loss | -105 | 75 h 7 m | Show |
Non-Conference Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday. I see this as a smash spot for the Lions, particularly on offense, as they check in starved for a positive outcome following four consecutive losses including back-to-back road losses against the Patriots and Cowboys in which they scored a grand total of six points. Something has to give in this matchup as the Dolphins enter riding an 0-4 ATS skid while the Lions have dropped the cash in three consecutive games. The Fins will be out of their element playing in a domed environment, noting that they'll be looking forward to flipping the calendar page having gone a miserable 0-8 ATS in their last eight October games. There were certainly a lot of positives for Miami to take away from last Sunday night's 16-10 victory over the Steelers. However, I didn't like the way their offense stagnated and I did feel their secondary and defense as a whole looked vulnerable, missing a number of key parts and suffering yet another injury blow with strong safety Brandon Jones tearing his ACL. Keep in mind, this was already a defense that was without Xavien Howard's running mate, Byron Jones and slot corner Nik Needham. Howard could be left on an island in this one and he's been dealing with nagging groin and quad injuries all season long (he missed practice to start the week once again). While the Lions did lose WR Aman-Ra St. Brown to concussion protocols in last week's game against Dallas, all indications are that he'll be good to go for this one as he didn't actually get diagnosed with a concussion (the league's new protocols dictated that he leave the game and not return). Speaking of returning players, Detroit should have RB De'Andre Swift back for the first time in a long time after he was a somewhat surprising scratch last week. The Lions wanted to give him one more week to recover but after he was a full participant in practice to start the week, he should be back on the field for Sunday's game. That's good news as the Dolphins have had a difficult time defending pass-catching running backs like Swift (and Jamaal Williams) this season. I see this as a breakout spot for a Lions offense that is starving for such an opportunity given the way they've lagged in recent games. Remember, this was one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL through the first month of the season. Here, we'll note that Detroit has gone an exceptional 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games following consecutive losses by 14+ points, as is the case here. Take Detroit (10*). | |||||||
10-30-22 | Panthers +4 v. Falcons | Top | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 27 h 18 m | Show |
Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Carolina plus the points over Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Panthers were written off by most following the trade of Christian McCaffrey, not to mention the firing of head coach Matt Rhule (I would actually consider that move to be addition by subtraction). Rather than hang their heads, the Panthers came out with something to prove last Sunday, routing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That victory came at home. Now they hit the road to face the upstart Falcons in Atlanta. I'm not convinced this matchup is quite as daunting as it may seem for the visitors. Carolina will be looking to secure a third straight win and cover here in Atlanta after outlasting the Falcons by a 19-13 score on the road last season. Atlanta is dealing with a cluster of injuries in its secondary and will sorely miss its two two corners in A.J. Terrell and Casey Hayward in this one. Panthers QB P.J. Walker was given a vote of confidence from the team this week, named the starter despite Baker Mayfield apparently being healthy enough to return (he'll be in a backup role here). The run-first nature of the Falcons plays into the hands of the team catching points, eating up valuable clock most weeks. Last Sunday, Atlanta attempted just 13 passes despite game script leading you to believe it should be bombing away, trailing by a considerable margin all afternoon long in Cincinnati. I expect the Falcons to stick to the script here, even against a Panthers defense that has been relatively stout against the run, yielding just 3.5 yards per rush on the road this season. Carolina finally got its ground game going in last week's win and I expect some carry-over here, noting that Atlanta has been ripped for 5.4 yards per rush at home this season. Look for the Panthers to churn out long, clock-eating drives in an effort to effectively shorten this game - that gives them their best chance of securing a second straight victory in my opinion. Take Carolina (10*). | |||||||
10-30-22 | Patriots -2.5 v. Jets | 22-17 | Win | 100 | 16 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on New England minus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. We'll back the Patriots as they look to bounce back following an embarrassing home loss against the lowly Bears on Monday Night Football. What better opponent to get right back up for than the division rival Jets on Sunday. New York is coming off a big win in Denver last Sunday. Keep in mind, the Broncos were undermanned in that game, starting career backup QB Brett Rypien. The Jets struggled to move the football outside of a big run from now-injured rookie RB Breece Hall on a Broncos defense breakdown. Here, I'm confident we'll see the Patriots play fundamentally sound defense while not putting too much in the lap of QB Mac Jones (or Bailey Zappe should he take over at some point). Note that the Pats are an impressive 24-10 ATS in their last 34 games when coming off an outright double-digit loss as a favorite, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 6.8 points on average in that situation. Take New England (8*). | |||||||
10-29-22 | Stanford v. UCLA -16.5 | Top | 13-38 | Win | 100 | 106 h 37 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Month. My selection is on UCLA minus the points over Stanford at 10:30 pm et on Saturday. Credit Stanford for turning its season around with consecutive wins over Notre Dame and Arizona State. The Cardinal were circling the drain off to a 1-4 start prior to that, with their lone win having come against FCS squad Colgate. I think their run ends here, however, as they head to Westwood to face a UCLA squad that should be in a foul mood off a 45-30 loss at Oregon last week (we won with the 'over' in that game). The Stanford defense has held up well over the last two games but those were favorable matchups, unlike this one. Keep in mind, earlier this season we saw the Cardinal allow three Oregon State touchdown drives in the fourth quarter, at home no less, nearly coughing up a 24-10 lead. The week previous to that there was a stretch where they allowed three Oregon touchdowns in just over four minutes of action. There were also poor performances against USC and Washington. In that same vein, I look for the Bruins offense to go off in this matchup. UCLA had no defensive answers for Oregon in Eugene last Saturday but few teams do these days. This is about as close to the electric Ducks offense of yesteryear that we've seen in quite some time. Here, the Bruins should benefit from facing a pocket-passer of a QB in Tanner McKee. You would have to go back three games to find the last time he threw a touchdown pass and he's no threat to run, gaining positive yardage on the ground just once all season (he gained five yards on two attempts against Oregon State). Note that UCLA checks in an incredible 10-1 ATS when coming off three straight games allowing 31+ points, as is the case here. Meanwhile, despite the victory last week, Stanford is still just 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games against Pac-12 opponents. Take UCLA (10*). | |||||||
10-29-22 | Pacers v. Nets UNDER 235 | Top | 125-116 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams have struggled out of the gates this season although Indiana did pick up a much-needed win in a high-scoring affair in Washington last night. The Nets have had a tough enough time just getting their shots off on offense, attempting fewer than 90 field goals in regulation time in all five games to date. We have seen them clamp down on the opposition over their last two contests, limiting the Bucks to 88 field goal attempts and the Mavericks to just 73 in regulation time last time out. The Pacers two lowest FGA numbers of the season to date have come in their last two games. They've knocked down 38, 37 and 41 field goals over their last three contests. On the flip side, Indiana has limited four of its last five opponents to 87 FGA or fewer. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-29-22 | Canadiens v. Blues UNDER 6.5 | 7-4 | Loss | -111 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Montreal and St. Louis at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. The Canadiens are coming off a 3-2 win in Buffalo two nights ago as we cashed with the 'under'. We'll go right back to the well with the same play here as they continue their road trip in St. Louis. Despite the victory on Thursday, Montreal has still mustered only four goals in its three road games to date this season. The good news is, the Habs have played stout defense, limiting seven of their eight opponents this season to three goals or less. The Blues started the season on fire, scoring nine goals in posting consecutive wins over the Blue Jackets and Kraken. Since then, St. Louis has been stymied, going 1-3 while scoring a grand total of four goals. Last time out, the Blues were lit up for six goals in a loss in Nashville but they won't have to contend with that same type of firepower here, noting they gave up just four goals in two meetings with the Habs last season. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
10-29-22 | USC v. Arizona UNDER 76 | Top | 45-37 | Loss | -110 | 103 h 34 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between USC and Arizona at 7 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'over' in Arizona's most recent game - a wild 49-39 loss against the Huskies in Washington two weeks ago. I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'under' as the Wildcats return home to host USC off their bye week on Saturday. The fact that Arizona was able to keep pace (to a certain extent) with Washington was no big surprise as that's been the Huskies M.O. this season - jump ahead and then let their opponent back in the game. The Wildcats have bombed away for 400+ passing yards against the likes of Cal, Colorado and Washington but I suspect they'll have a much more difficult time doing so against the well-rested Trojans here. USC is coming off a wild game of its own, falling by a 43-42 score on the road against Utah on October 15th. That marked the first time this season that USC allowed more than 257 yards through the air and I'm confident it will make amends here. Note that the Trojans have topped out at 42 points in three road games this season and I'm not sure even that crooked number would be enough to get this one 'over' the lofty total. I don't think USC wants to get involved in another track meet here, knowing that Arizona does have the QB in Jayden De Laura and receiving corps to potentially pull off a stunner. Instead, I look for the Trojans to lean on their ground attack, as they often have this season (they've topped out at 25 pass completions in a game), churning out long, clock-churning drives in an effort to shorten proceedings and stamp out any hope of a Wildcats upset. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 53-31 with USC coming off a game in which it scored 42+ points while the 'under' is 21-9 in Arizona's last 30 home contests after dropping consecutive games in-conference, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-29-22 | Oklahoma State v. Kansas State UNDER 56 | Top | 0-48 | Win | 100 | 53 h 51 m | Show |
Big 12 Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma State and Kansas State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. After suffering a bad beat with the 'under' in Oklahoma State's double-overtime loss at TCU two weeks ago we went back to the well with the same play as the Cowboys returned home to host Texas last week. Unfortunately that result didn't go our way either as a high-scoring first half was ultimately the downfall for 'under' bettors such as ourselves. Here, I won't hesitate to take another shot with the 'under', however, as the Cowboys head back on the road to face upstart Kansas State, which checks in off a 38-28 loss to TCU last Saturday. In that loss against TCU, Kansas State lost do-it-all QB Adrian Martinez to injury. It remains to be seen whether he can play this week although it sounds like he's on the doubtful end of the spectrum. Regardless, I do expect the Oklahoma State defense to step up and carry over some positive momentum after holding Texas out of the end zone over the game's final 33+ minutes in a tight affair last week. It was the opposite story for Kansas State. It jumped ahead 28-10 in the second quarter against TCU and probably thought it would be able to cruise from there. Things didn't go as planned as the Horned Frogs went on to score the game's final 28 points in a 10-point victory. Without Martinez, the Wildcats were unable to score over the game's final 38+ minutes. Note that none of the last four meetings between these two teams over the last four years have come all that close to getting 'over' the total we're dealing with this week. The fact that the Cowboys have seen each of their last five games and six of seven overall go 'over' the total this season is a big reason why we're being offered such a generous total. Keep in mind, Kansas State is just one game removed from a contest that totalled just 19 points against Iowa State. Earlier in the season, the Wildcats were upset at home against Tulane in a game that reached only 27 points. Noting that the 'under' remains 40-23 in Oklahoma State's last 63 road games following an 'over' result and 35-17 the last 52 times it has gone 'away' off consecutive games totalling 70+ points, we'll go back to the well with the 'under' on Saturday. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-29-22 | Ohio State v. Penn State UNDER 61.5 | Top | 44-31 | Loss | -110 | 119 h 3 m | Show |
Big Ten Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Ohio State and Penn State at 12 noon et on Saturday. Ohio State has been tearing through the opposition, scoring 45 points or more in all six games since putting up only 21 points in a low-scoring win over Notre Dame to open the campaign. Here, I do think there's a path for Penn State to stay competitive and ultimately do a reasonably good job of keeping the Buckeyes defense under wraps. Note that while Ohio State did score 54 points in a rout of Iowa last week, a lot of the Hawkeyes issues were self-inflicted. After scoring a touchdown around midway through the first quarter, Ohio State didn't reach the end zone again on offense until more than five minutes into the third quarter. Penn State bounced back nicely from a drubbing a the hands of Michigan one week previous, delivering a 45-17 rout of Minnesota on Saturday. Note that the Nittany Lions didn't allow a touchdown in that game until they were already ahead 17-3 with less than a minute remaining in the first half. The Golden Gophers didn't score again until nearly midway through the fourth quarter, already trailing by a score of 38-10 at the time. Note that Penn State has held five of its last six opponents to 17 points or less. Of course Ohio State poses a serious challenge and will undoubtedly score its share of points in this contest, but I don't anticipate Penn State getting ripped the way it did against Michigan's run-heavy attack two weeks ago. Offensively, the Nittany Lions gameplan should involve orchestrating long, clock-churning drives in an effort to shorten this contest and keep the ball out of the hands of the high-powered Ohio State offense. I do think that's well within the realm of possibility with seasoned QB Sean Clifford running the offense. The Nittany Lions were able to possess the football for 29:50 in last year's matchup and that was despite getting virtually nothing from their ground attack. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 33-17 in Penn State's last 50 games played at home following a home victory, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of just 49.0 points. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-29-22 | Notre Dame v. Syracuse UNDER 48.5 | 41-24 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Notre Dame and Syracuse at 12 noon et on Saturday. Notre Dame is coming off a high-scoring affair last week as it rolled to a 44-21 win over UNLV in South Bend. The Irish have yet to post consecutive 'over' results this season, though, and I don't expect that trend to change as they head to Syracuse to face the upstart Orange on Saturday. The fact that Notre Dame broke out offensively last week wasn't all that surprising. It was up against a sagging UNLV defense and after an embarrassing 16-14 home loss against Stanford the previous week, the Runnin' Rebels were in the wrong place at the wrong time. Here, I expect the Irish offense to get brought back to Earth against a terrific Syracuse defense that is in a bounce-back spot of its own off a blown opportunity at Clemson last Saturday. Credit the Orange for hanging tough for a half against the Tigers. It allowed a touchdown midway through the first quarter but then held Clemson out of the end zone until nearly two minutes into the fourth quarter. The Syracuse offense has seemingly gotten more conservative as the season has gone on (and the schedule has toughened up). Note that the Orange season-high for passes completed in a game is 22 and that came in a contest where they still threw for 'only' 277 yards and scored just 22 points in a narrow win over Virginia. Throwing on the Irish is not easy task. Only one of Notre Dame's opponents this year has thrown for 300+ yards and that was North Carolina in a game where it was playing catch-up most of the way. Only Marshall ran for 200+ yards on the Irish and it took 50 attempts to get there. You get the picture. Notre Dame scored 45 points in a 24-point rout of the Orange in last year's meeting but it was a nearly five-touchdown favorite on that occasion. The gap has certainly closed this year and I think that lends itself to a lower-scoring affair. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
10-28-22 | Rockets +5.5 v. Blazers | Top | 111-125 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Houston plus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Friday. The Blazers had their perfect 4-0 start to the season stopped in a blowout loss against the Heat two nights ago. Not only did they lose that game but they lost their best player in Damian Lillard to injury as well. Regardless whether Portland has Lillard or not, I like the Rockets catching a handful of points here. Note that Portland has had a tough enough time just getting shots off this season, attempting 88, 82, 84, 83 and 78 field goals through its first five games. On the flip side, the Blazers have yielded 41+ made field goals in four consecutive games with three of their five opponents getting off 91+ FG attempts this season. That's obviously the pace the Rockets prefer to play at, noting that they've hoisted up 90+ FG attempts in four straight games. They haven't shot well over that stretch but should bounce back here. Note that Houston is a long-term 73-47 ATS when playing on the road after losing four of its last five games, as is the case here, while Portland checks in 18-36 ATS in its last 54 games following a loss. Take Houston (10*). | |||||||
10-28-22 | Penguins v. Canucks +140 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 140 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Vancouver over Pittsburgh at 10:05 pm et on Friday. The Canucks finally picked up their first win of the season last night in Seattle and I look for them to build off the positive momentum provided by that victory as they return home to host the Penguins on Friday. Pittsburgh scored 26 goals in its first five games this season but has been held to only four in the first two games of its current four-game road trip. Worse still, after holding five straight opponents to three goals or less, the Pens have been lit up for 10 goals over their last two contests. Meanwhile, Vancouver posted its highest scoring output of the season in last night's win, providing a glimmer of hope as it enters this key four-game homestand. Note that the Canucks will be playing with double-revenge here after dropping both of last season's meetings with Pittsburgh. The Pens haven't posted three straight victories over the Canucks since 2016-17. Take Vancouver (10*). | |||||||
10-28-22 | East Carolina v. BYU UNDER 61.5 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 105 h 2 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between East Carolina and BYU at 8 pm et on Friday. I don't think this is anywhere near the type of track meet that most are expecting as it's actually a critical game for both teams as far as potential Bowl standing goes. East Carolina is coming off a massive upset win over Central Florida on Saturday. The Knights had owned the Pirates for years and certainly entered the game playing well (including scoring 70 points in their previous contest) so that was an uplifting result for ECU to be sure. Credit the Pirates defense in that game as the only touchdown it allowed came when leading by a 17-3 score in the third quarter. ECU has certainly given up its share of yardage to opposing offenses but it has that ball-hawking ability, having forced six turnovers in the last two games alone. With that in mind, job number one for BYU's struggling offense will be to take care of the football. The Cougars have gotten away from their running game more than they'd like but that's had everything to do with game script as they've dropped their last three contests. I do think we see them go back to the run from the outset in this one in an effort to effectively shorten this game against a dangerous Pirates offense. Last time out against Liberty, BYU scored a pair of first quarter touchdowns but then didn't score again the rest of the way. After that embarrassing defensive performance (the Cougars allowed six Liberty scoring drives over a 34-minute stretch from the second to fourth quarter) I expect that unit to respond favorably here. This Cougars defense is too talented to struggle as badly as it has. Of course, facing Arkansas and Liberty in consecutive games is a tall task for even the best of defenses. Note that East Carolina has actually only played one true road game this season and it scored just nine points in that 15-point loss at Tulane. I mentioned this is a critical game for both teams in regard to Bowl game prospects. ECU does have what figures to be a layup in the final week of the season against Temple (it only needs one more win for Bowl eligibility) but you can be sure it would like to take care of business well before that. For BYU, things are a little tougher as they enter with just four wins and have only three games left on the schedule, including this one (it will face Boise State and Stanford - both on the road - to close out the regular season). I'm anticipating a tightly-contested affair and I think that lends itself to a game of the lower-scoring variety in this case. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-28-22 | 76ers v. Raptors UNDER 213.5 | 112-90 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Toronto at 7:40 pm et on Friday. Two nights ago, these two teams combined to score 228 points in a double-digit Raptors victory. That outcome had more to do with both teams shooting the lights out than the pace of play. The 76ers have now gotten off 80, 83, 84, 80 and 79 field goal attempts through their first five games this season. They've held four of their five opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. It's been a similar story for the Raptors. They've hoisted up 87 or fewer FG attempts in all five games while limiting the opposition to just 77, 80, 76, 83 and 79 FG attempts. You get the idea. I'm confident we'll see both teams do a better job of defending the perimeter in particular in Friday's rematch and here we'll note that the 'under' is 32-16 in the 76ers last 48 games when playing on the road off an outright loss as a road favorite, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 196.2 points. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
10-27-22 | Heat v. Warriors UNDER 226 | Top | 110-123 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. The Heat will be playing the second of back-to-back nights off a lopsided win in Portland last night. Miami had little success breaking through against Golden State in two matchups last season, making good on just 37 field goals in each contest. While the Warriors have looked vulnerable defensively in the early going this season, they do come in the more rested team and off a 134-105 dismantling at the hands of the Suns (we won with Phoenix in that game) two nights ago, I'm confident we'll see them come out much sharper on Thursday. Note that this has all the markings of a game Steve Kerr's Warriors would like to 'manage' noting that they'll head out on a five-game in seven-night road trip that begins Friday in Charlotte. While Miami did score 119 points in last night's victory, the Heat have played at a reasonably slow pace, getting off 80, 92, 76, 83 and 87 field goal attempts through their first five games this season. In the outlier they hoisted up 92 field goal attempts but still scored 'only' 104 points in a loss against Boston (that game totalled just 215 points). Defensively, Miami has been as locked-in as any team in the Association, holding each of its last four opponents to 87 or fewer FG attempts while yielding just 37, 34 and 34 made field goals over its last three contests. The Warriors last three opponents have quite simply shot the lights out but I'm not convinced we'll see that from the Heat in a back-to-back, three-in-four and five-in-seven situation here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-27-22 | Ravens v. Bucs OVER 44.5 | 27-22 | Win | 100 | 47 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Baltimore and Tampa Bay at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. We can 'buy low' on the total in this matchup as both of these teams stumble into this contest from an offensive standpoint. The Ravens were involved in as strange a game as you'll see against the Browns last Sunday - a game that really had no business staying 'under' the total but ultimately did anyway (a few sour grapes on our part as we had the 'over' in that one). The Ravens were driving deep in Cleveland territory for the game-clinching score midway through the fourth quarter before a fumble gave the Browns new life. Cleveland would drive into Ravens territory before an untimely penalty pushed them back and too far for kicker Cade York to nail what would have been the game-tying field goal. Lamar Jackson attempted just 16 passes in that game - despite facing a Browns defense that was missing its best pass defender in CB Denzel Ward. Here, I expect Lamar to attack an injury-plagued Buccaneers defense relentlessly rather than continuously run into the brick wall that is the Bucs run defense. On the flip side, Tom Brady and the Bucs offense turned in an embarrassing performance against the undermanned Panthers in Carolina last Sunday. The quick turnaround might just help their cause here as they have no time to dwell on that disappointing result. The Ravens are dealing with cluster injuries in their secondary with key corners Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters both battling through injuries and expected to play, albeit at less than 100% health on a short week. With the Ravens having cashed the 'under' in four straight games and the Bucs off three consecutive 'under' results, we'll go the contrarian route and call for a higher-scoring contest than most are expecting on Thursday. Take the over (8*). |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ricky Tran | $756 |
ProSportsPicks | $632 |
Joseph D'Amico | $510 |
Joey Tron | $450 |
Tom Macrina | $399 |
Nick Parsons | $344 |
Sean Murphy | $306 |
Jack Jones | $303 |
William Burns | $233 |
Dan Kaiser | $220 |