Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
05-12-22 | Hurricanes v. Bruins -122 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
Non-Division First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Boston over Carolina at 7 pm et on Thursday. Home ice advantage has mattered in this playoff series. That's actually an understatement as the home team has outscored the opposition by a 24-8 margin through the first five games with all five of those contests decided by 2+ goals. The Bruins did welcome Charlie McAvoy back from Covid protocols last time out but it wasn't enough as they dug themselves an early hole and never recovered. I expect a different story to play out on Thursday. Note that Boston has allowed just 1.9 goals per game and outscored opponents by 0.8 goals on average when playing at home after losing four or five of its last six games over the last two seasons (18-game sample size), as is the case here. On the flip side, the Canes have gone 16-25 when playing on the road after winning five or six of their last seven contests over the last three seasons, allowing 3.3 goals per game while being outscored by 0.4 goals on average in that spot. While it's not well-advised to employ such a hot-and-cold style, especially at this time of year, the Bruins have the talent on hand to 'flip the switch' so to speak. We saw it when the scene shifted to Boston earlier this season as the B's looked like a completely different team in Games 3 and 4 on home ice. Note that they check in 5-1 off a loss by 4+ goals this season and 10-4 after scoring one goal or less in their previous game. Take Boston (10*). | |||||||
05-12-22 | Heat v. 76ers -2 | 99-90 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Miami at 7 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Heat in Game 5 of this series two nights ago - a never-in-doubt 35-point laugher. Here, I won't hesitate to go the other way, however, and back the 76ers as they look to force a seventh game in this series. The home side has won and covered in all five games in this series. Here, we'll look for the Sixers to extend that streak noting that they've gone 40-24 ATS when playing at home off an ATS loss over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 7.9 points in that situation. Better still, they're 22-11 ATS when coming off a game in which they scored 100 points or less over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 8.4 points on average in that spot. Off a 120-point explosion in Game 5, I don't see a lot of upside for the Heat offense here. Note that the Sixers have held them to 84 or fewer field goal attempts in each of the last four games, no small feat after Miami had gotten off 92+ FG attempts in three of its previous four contests prior to that stretch. The Heat quite simply shot the lights out on Tuesday. Philadelphia on the other hand, had an awful shooting night in Miami last time out but on a positive note did manage to get off a series-high 85 FG attempts. Note that the Sixers managed to score 99 and 116 points in winning both previous home games in this series despite attempting just 67 and 68 field goals. If they can find a way to get that pace up a bit again here, I'm confident they can hang a crooked number on the Heat. Take Philadelphia (9*). | |||||||
05-11-22 | Stars v. Flames -208 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on Calgary over Dallas at 9:30 pm et on Wednesday. It may sound strange given the series is knotted at two games apiece, but no first round matchup has been as lopsided as this one. We won with the Flames in Game 4 on Monday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as the scene shifts back to Calgary for Game 5. The Flames fired a whopping 95 shots on goal over the course of Games 3 and 4 in Dallas but only managed to come away with one victory. They've outshot the Stars 150-106 in this series. I don't expect the tide to suddenly turn in Calgary, noting that the Stars average just 2.5 goals per game while being outscored by an average margin of 0.6 goals on the road this season. They're a woeful 7-19 when heading out on the road following a home game over the last two seasons, outscored by 1.4 goals on average in that situation. The Flames good but not great 26-17 home record doesn't tell the whole story as they've averaged 3.7 goals per game on home ice while allowing just 2.3 on average. Take Calgary (4*). | |||||||
05-11-22 | Warriors v. Grizzlies OVER 218 | Top | 95-134 | Win | 100 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Golden State and Memphis at 9:30 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a very low-scoring Game 4 between these two teams as Golden State prevailed by a 101-98 score (we won with the Grizzlies plus the points). I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday as the scene shifts back to Memphis for Game 5 - with the Grizz facing elimination. Note that Memphis has now been held to 41 or fewer made field goals in six straight games, its longest such streak of the entire season (previous was five). I do think there's a good chance we see the Grizzlies break out of their funk here, even without Ja Morant. Note that Memphis has had no shortage of scoring opportunities in this series, getting off 95, 91, 92 and 96 field goal attempts. The shots quite simply haven't been falling. Here, however, I expect to see the Warriors suffer a bit of a letdown defensively as they know this series is all but wrapped up (especially with Ja Morant all but ruled out for the playoffs). Note that the Grizzlies have posted impressive offensive numbers all season at home, averaging 44-of-94 shooting and they're certainly accustomed to playing without Ja Morant as he's missed a considerable amount of time due to injury. Of course, the Warriors have had their way with the Grizzlies defense in this series. They made good on just 36-of-90 field goal attempts in Game 4 but are just one game removed from knocking down 53 field goals in a 142-point outburst in Game 3. In the first two games here in Memphis they got off 93 and 95 FG attempts, hitting 40 or more of them in both contests. While two of the last three games in this series have stayed 'under' the total, I believe too much of an adjustment has been made here. Consider the last matchup here in Memphis - Game 2 of this series - saw a closing total of 227.5. You would have to go all the way back to April 2nd and 3rd to find the last time the Warriors saw consecutive games stay 'under' the total. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
05-11-22 | A's +1.5 v. Tigers | 9-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oakland +1.5 runs over Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. The A's have taken two of the first three games in this unique five-game series and I look for them to give the slumping Tigers all they can handle again on Wednesday. Note that Oakland is 26-11 when playing on the road against left-handed starting pitching over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.4 runs on average in that spot. They're also 13-3 when playing on the road after being held to four runs or less in four consecutive games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by 2.0 runs on average. While the Oakland offense has been struggling, the Tigers have been even worse in that regard, scoring two runs or less in seven of their last eight games. Take Oakland +1.5 runs (3*). | |||||||
05-11-22 | Penguins v. Rangers UNDER 6.5 | 3-5 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and New York at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Game 5 often serves as the pivotal game in a series. In this particular case, it could bring an end to the series as the Penguins look to eliminate the Rangers in unceremonious fashion at Madison Square Garden. This series hasn't gone the way most expected. The four regular season matchups between these two teams produced just 1, 6, 5 and 3 goals. We've yet to see a game in this playoff series stay 'under' seven goals. I expect that to change with the Rangers facing elimination on Wednesday, however. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 16-8 with the Penguins playing on the road after consecutive wins by 2+ goals over the last two seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 4.8 goals. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 28-15 with the Rangers seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of 5.9 goals. Better still, the 'under' is 26-11 when those two losses saw the opponent score 3+ goals, which is the situation here, resulting in an average total of only 5.8 goals in that spot. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
05-11-22 | Sparks v. Dream UNDER 161.5 | Top | 75-77 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Atlanta at 7 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the 'over' in the Sparks season-opening 98-91 overtime win in Chicago but also cashed the 'under' in Atlanta's only previous game - a 66-59 victory in Dallas. Here, I believe we're working with an inflated total, largely due to Los Angeles' previous two games finding their way 'over' the total. The Sparks have shot exceptionally well in their first two games but I question whether they'll keep it up for a third consecutive road game to open the campaign. Liz Cambage has given the offense a big boost but the Dream to have plenty of bodies to throw at her and perhaps limit her effectiveness from the field. While the Dream were victorious in their season-opener, there were certainly signs that their offense will remain a work-in-progress. They knocked down just 20-of-63 field goal attempts against what will likely be a mediocre Wings defense. The fact that highly-touted draft pick Rhyne Howard led the team in scoring was encouraging but she had just 16 points. A top prospect from last year's draft class, Aari McDonald, continued to struggle, failing to knock down any of her three field goal attempts while scoring just one point in 17 minutes. The 'under' cashed in two of three meetings between these two teams last season. The only matchup that went 'over' the total still reached just 165 points and that was thanks only to both teams getting into the 80's in terms of FG attempts, something I don't anticipate seeing here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
05-10-22 | Mavs v. Suns -5.5 | Top | 80-110 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
NBA First Half Game of the Year. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points first half over Dallas at 10 pm et on Tuesday. The Mavericks did an excellent job of getting back in this series, securing consecutive wins on their home floor to tie things up at two heading back to Phoenix. Now it's the Suns turn to respond and I expect them to get off to a strong start in Game 5 on Tuesday. Here, we'll note that the Mavs are 3-11 ATS in the first half when playing on the road off consecutive wins this season, outscored by an average margin of 4.9 points in that situation. The Suns meanwhile have gone 10-1 ATS in the first half when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent this season, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by 10.7 points on average in that spot. It's not that Phoenix shot all that poorly in the last two games in Dallas, but it's outside shooting certainly let it down in Sunday's Game 4 as it made good on just nine three-point attempts. I'm convinced we'll see the Suns get off to at least a better start in this one (we won't worry about the Mavs potentially making the appropriate halftime adjustments by sticking with the first half only), noting that they were in a similar situation returning home tied at two games apiece against New Orleans last round and ended up jumping ahead 59-46 at halftime in Game 5. Take Phoenix first half (10*). | |||||||
05-10-22 | Phillies v. Mariners +1.5 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle +1.5 runs over Philadelphia at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. We missed badly with Seattle last night but did win with the 'over' in its 9-0 drubbing at the hands of the Phillies. I won't hesitate to come back with the Mariners again here, however, this time grabbing the insurance run as well. Note that Philadelphia is still a money-burning 18-28 in its last 46 Interleague games. It also checks in a woeful 7-18 when coming off a game in which it allowed one run or less over the last two seasons, outscored by 2.0 runs on average in that situation. For his part, tonight's starter Aaron Nola has posted a 7-17 team record in his last 24 nighttime outings. Meanwhile, the Mariners are 51-36 when priced between +125 and -125, as is the case here at the time of writing, outscoring opponents by 0.3 runs on average in that spot. They're also a profitable 29-23 after plating four runs or less in three consecutive games over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.2 runs in that situation. Tonight's starter, Robbie Ray has averaged over six innings per start this season and has posted a terrific 1.02 WHIP in three home outings. Take Seattle +1.5 runs (5*). | |||||||
05-10-22 | Astros v. Twins OVER 6.5 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
American League Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Minnesota at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams are coming off a string of low-scoring games. That doesn't mean we'll see the same type of contest play out on Tuesday in Minnesota, however. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 26-14 with the Astros coming off a game in which they allowed one run or less over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 9.8 runs in that situation. The 'over' is also a long-term 207-160 with Houston playing on the road after allowing three runs or less in consecutive games, which is also the case here. As for Minnesota, it has seen the 'over' go 12-3 after plating four runs or less in four consecutive games over the last two seasons, leading to an average total of 11.0 runs scored in that spot. While we do have a fine pitching matchup here with Justin Verlander going up against Joe Ryan, I'm willing to bet on the bats waking from their slumber following a much-needed off day on Monday. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
05-10-22 | 76ers v. Heat -3 | Top | 85-120 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami minus the points over Philadelphia at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. After getting crushed by 20 points in Game 3 in Philadelphia, the Heat played much better in Game 4 but simply couldn't withstand a shooting clinic from the 76ers as they knocked down over 54% of their field goal attempts in an eight-point victory. With the scene shifting back to Miami for Game 5 on Tuesday, I look for the Heat to regain their footing. Note that the Sixers actually got off just 67 and 68 field goal attempts in the two games in Philadelphia. They've been held to 84 or fewer FG attempts in all 10 playoff games to date. With so few opportunities and considering the Heat have held opponents to just 37-of-83 shooting here at home this season, I believe the Sixers will be in tough trying to keep within arm's reach in this one. Note that the Heat, while slowed in Philadelphia, have shown they can push the pace, getting off 92+ FG attempts in three of their last seven contests. While the Sixers have knocked down 40+ field goals just once in their last nine games the Heat have accomplished that feat four times in their last seven and 10 of their last 13 contests overall. On the flip side you would have to go back seven games to find the last time Miami allowed an opponent to make good on more than 38 field goals. Finally, we'll note that the Heat are 14-6 ATS when seeking revenge for a loss where their opponent scored 110+ points this season, outscoring the opposition by 6.8 points on average. Perhaps better still, Miami has outscored opponents by 11.1 points on average when seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent this season (12-game sample size). Take Miami (10*). | |||||||
05-10-22 | Red Sox +1.5 v. Braves | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston +1.5 runs over Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Tuesday. The Red Sox have been a train-wreck this season, relatively-speaking, but I look for them to give the Braves all they can handle in Atlanta on Tuesday. Note that the Braves are just 4-10 when coming off a win this season, as is the case here, outscored by 0.7 runs on average in that situation. While the Red Sox are mired in a five-game losing streak at the moment, they've still outscored opponents by 2.3 runs on average when coming off three or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons (14-game sample size). Perhaps Atlanta is the right team to turn it around against, or at least from the right division; the Red Sox are 16-4 in their last 20 games against N.L. East opponents, averaging 5.7 runs per game and outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.6 runs in those matchups. The Braves on the other hand are just 15-20 after scoring 8+ runs in their previous game over the last two seasons, outscored by 0.6 runs on average along the way. We'll grab the insurance run with the Red Sox here, largely due to their bullpen, which has already blown five saves this season. Take Boston +1.5 runs (3*). | |||||||
05-10-22 | Bruins v. Hurricanes UNDER 6 | Top | 1-5 | Push | 0 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
NHL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Carolina at 7 pm et on Tuesday. The Bruins exploded for nine goals in Games 3 and 4 of this series, evening up proceedings at two games apiece. That was at home though. Now they go back on the road, where they average less than 3.0 goals per game this season and scored just three goals in Games 1 and 2 combined. The Hurricanes have been incredibly stingy at home this season, allowing just 2.1 goals per game in Raleigh. Not surprisingly, the 'under' has gone 24-18-1 here in Carolina. With all of that being said, we're still working with a '6' here as all four games in this series have gone 'over' the total. I expect that to change on Tuesday. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 18-8 with the Bruins having scored 4+ goals in consecutive games over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of only 5.3 goals. The 'under' is 16-6 with the Hurricanes playing at home after losing two of their last three contests over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 5.0 goals. While this playoff series has been high-scoring, it's worth noting that the previous three meetings between these two teams in Carolina all totalled four goals or less, including a 3-0 Canes victory earlier this season. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
05-10-22 | Aces v. Mystics +5.5 | Top | 76-89 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
WNBA Non-Conference Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Las Vegas at 7 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams are off to perfect 2-0 starts to the campaign. For the Aces, perhaps the hot start was to be expected as they've been one of the league's best teams for a number of years. While the Mystics are just a couple of years removed from a WNBA championship, they've been up and down as a franchise. I am high on Washington this season, however, already cashing one ticket with it in its season-opening rout of Indiana. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the Mystics as I feel they have plenty of upside in this spot and will be out to make a statement that Sunday's double-digit win in Minnesota was no fluke. Washington has managed to go 2-0, scoring 84 and 78 points despite being held to fewer than 70 field goal attempts in each of its first two contests. That's not to mention the fact that the Mystics made good on just 31 and 29 of those attempts. Here, I expect them to be able to find a few more scoring opportunities against an Aces squad that has yielded its first two opponents 73 and 76 FG attempts. The Aces have won and covered as a favorite in consecutive games but now fall in a tough situation as they're a long-term 18-36 ATS when coming off consecutive wins over division opponents, as is the case here, and worse still, 1-10 ATS when following consecutive ATS wins over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 2.0 points in that latter situation. The Aces did take all three meetings against the Mystics last season but two of those wins came by three points or less. Finally, I'll point out that while Elena Delle Donne sat out Sunday's big win in Minnesota, she is expected back on the floor for Washington on Tuesday. Take Washington (10*). | |||||||
05-10-22 | Aces v. Mystics OVER 163.5 | 76-89 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Las Vegas and Washington at 7 pm et on Tuesday. The 'under' has cashed in each of the Mystics first two games this season while the Aces are coming off an 'under' result of their own on Sunday against Seattle. I expect a different story to unfold as these 2-0 teams square off in the nation's capital on Tuesday. Note that all three of last year's meetings between these squads topped the total we're working with here, with the low-water mark being 167 points. The 'over' is a long-term 68-30 with the Aces coming off a home win over a division opponent, as is the case here following Sunday's victory over the Storm. The Aces also check in allowing 82.5 points per game when coming off consecutive ATS wins over the last three seasons (11-game sample size), which is also the situation here. If the Mystics are to approach the 80-point mark here, you have to figure Las Vegas won't be far behind, noting that it is listed as a road favorite in this contest and has put up 106 and 85 points without hardly breaking a sweat in its first two games this season. For its part, Washington has scored 84 and 78 points despite getting off fewer than 70 field goal attempts in each of its first two contests, a number I expect it to eclipse here with Las Vegas having yielded its first two opponents 73 and 76 FG attempts. Take the over (9*). | |||||||
05-09-22 | Grizzlies +10.5 v. Warriors | Top | 98-101 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Golden State at 10 pm et on Monday. Everyone has all but written off the Grizzlies following Saturday's 144-114 drubbing - a game in which they also lost Ja Morant to an injury (he's doubtful to play on Monday). While I have no false illusions when it comes to the Grizz potentially winning this series, I do believe they can bounce back with a much stronger performance on Monday and ultimately take this one down to the wire. Even if Morant can't go, Memphis will have Dillon Brooks back on the floor following his one-game suspension. It's worth noting that the Grizzlies know how to play without Ja as he has missed plenty of time due to injury over the last couple of seasons. I like the fact that Memphis continues to find its opportunities in this series, getting off 95, 91 and 92 field goal attempts in the first three games. Golden State quite simply shot the lights out on Saturday, knocking down a ridiculous 63.1% of its field goal attempts. It happens when we're talking about a team led by the likes of Steph Curry and Klay Thompson. Memphis has proven to be a terrific 'bounce-back' team all season though, going a perfect 10-0 ATS when coming off a double-digit road loss, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 15.9 points on average in that situation. When seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent this season, the Grizzlies have gone 21-10 ATS, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 4.8 points. Take Memphis (10*). | |||||||
05-09-22 | Phillies v. Mariners -115 | 9-0 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle over Philadelphia at 9:40 pm et on Monday. Tough spot for the Phillies here as they travel across the continent after splitting a double-header against the division rival Mets yesterday. Meanwhile, the Mariners stay at home following a confidence-building walk-off win over the red hot Rays yesterday - a game that saw highly-touted pitching prospect George Kirby make an exceptional mound debut. Of course it's all for not if the M's can't keep it going on Monday as they had dropped six games in a row and 10 of their last 11 prior to yesterday's victory. Needless to say, I like their chances here. Ranger Suarez takes the ball for Philadelphia. He's not fooling anyone right now, having topped out at four strikeouts in his first five starts this season, issuing 10 walks in only 23 1/3 innings while also getting tagged for three home runs over his last two outings. With Suarez unlikely to work deep into the game given his poor recent command, we should see plenty of a Phillies bullpen that has posted a 5.47 ERA and 1.48 WHIP over its last seven games. Mariners starter Chris Flexen has pitched well this season, recording a 3.10 ERA and 1.14 WHIP but has just one victory in his first four starts. That win came in his most recent home start as he allowed only one earned run over seven innings against the Royals in a 4-1 victory on April 22nd. The Mariners bullpen has posted an ugly 6.00 ERA over its last seven games but its collective 1.13 WHIP over that stretch tells a different story. Look for Seattle's turn-around to continue here. Take Seattle (6*). | |||||||
05-09-22 | Marlins v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Monday. 'Unders' have ruled the day for both of these teams lately but I look for a different story to unfold on Monday. Both starting pitchers will be facing their opponent for the second time in less than a week. While that's not generally a problem for the better pitchers in baseball, I don't feel that Elieser Hernandez of Humberto Castellanos fall into that category. Hernandez has had a miserable time locating his pitches in the early part of the season, issuing eight walks and giving up 27 hits in 24 1/3 innings of work. The D'Backs chased him after scoring five earned runs in four innings last week. Castellanos is off to an alright start for Arizona this season but I believe regression will soon be coming. He hasn't allowed a home run in 16 2/3 innings pitched this season after giving up six over his final five starts last season. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 11-1 with the D'Backs coming off three or more consecutive 'under' results over the last two seasons with that spot producing an average total of 12.6 runs. Over that same stretch, the 'over' has gone 37-23 with Arizona coming off a win, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 9.8 runs. Take the over (5*). | |||||||
05-09-22 | Phillies v. Mariners OVER 7.5 | 9-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Seattle at 9:40 pm et on Monday. The Mariners offense has run dry lately but off their first victory in a while, I think we'll see a reversal of course here on Monday. Note that the 'over' has gone a perfect 9-0 with Seattle having scored two runs or less in consecutive games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 11.0 runs in that situation. The Phillies meanwhile have seen the 'over' go a long-term 145-106 with an average total of 9.3 runs produced when coming off a loss against a division opponent in which they scored one run or less, which is also the situation here. Expect some offensive fireworks on Monday night in the Pacific Northwest. Take the over (4*). | |||||||
05-09-22 | Rays v. Angels OVER 7.5 | 3-11 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Monday. The Rays were involved in a low-scoring game in Seattle yesterday, eventually falling by a 2-1 score in extra innings. The Angels, meanwhile, staged a late rally to walk it off against the Nationals. Here, I'm anticipating a relatively high-scoring affair. Note that the 'over' has gone a perfect 9-0 with the Rays playing on the road following a game that totalled four runs or less over the last two seasons with that spot producing an average total of 10.4 runs. The Angels have seen the 'over' cash at a 35-22 clip when playing as a home favorite over the same stretch, leading to an average total of 9.8 runs. Better still, the 'over' is 37-23 with Los Angeles facing left-handed starting pitching over the last two seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 9.8 runs. The Halos are off to an incredible start against left-handers this season, averaging 5.5 runs per game with the 'over' going 4-3-1. Take the over (5*). | |||||||
05-09-22 | Flames -155 v. Stars | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Calgary over Dallas at 9:30 pm et on Monday. We missed with the Flames in Game 3 of this series on Saturday but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play in Game 4 on Monday. Most expected this to be a relatively quick series with the Flames the heavy favorite heading in. It hasn't played out that way, however, with Dallas rebounding from a 1-0 loss in Game 1 with consecutive victories. While the Stars have gone an impressive 28-14 at home this season, nearly half of those 14 losses have come since March 12th, six of them to be exact. The Flames, meanwhile, have been one of the league's best road teams, going 25-17 while outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.6 goals. Dallas checks in averaging just 2.5 goals per game while being outscored by 0.4 goals on average when coming off four or five wins in their last six games this season (35-game sample size), as is the case here. The Stars have also been outscored by 0.3 goals on average, allowing 3.4 goals per game when coming off a home win in which they scored 4+ goals over the last two seasons (26-game sample size), which is also the situation here. Take Calgary (3*). | |||||||
05-09-22 | Celtics v. Bucks OVER 211.5 | Top | 116-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Milwaukee at 7:30 pm et on Monday. While we didn't get the result we wanted, missing with the 'over', the pace was absolutely there in Game 3 of this series on Saturday with both teams setting series-highs in terms of field goal attempts (Milwaukee had 99 and Boston 87). That was precisely what we were projecting noting how fast-paced and high scoring the two regular season meetings were here in Milwaukee. I expect more of the same on Monday, but this time I look for both teams to do a much better job of making good on their scoring opportunities. Boston in particular has struggled shooting the ball so far in this series, knocking down 28, 38 and 32 field goals through the first three games. Keep in mind, the Celtics average 41 made field goals per contest on the road this season and knocked down 42 in both road games last round. For its part, Milwaukee also averages 41 made field goals per game at home this season and has connected on 43, 49 and 40 field goals in three previous home matchups with Boston. Here, we'll note that despite Saturday's 'under' result, the 'over' remains 33-21 with the Celtics playing in an 'underdog' role over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 225.1 points. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
05-09-22 | Rangers v. Penguins UNDER 6 | 2-7 | Loss | -101 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Pittsburgh at 7 pm et on Monday. This series has been much higher-scoring than expected with the first three games totalling 7, 7 and 11 goals. Saturday's Game 3 here in Pittsburgh broke wide open early with the Penguins scoring four times in the first period alone (they led 4-1 entering the second period). I'm certain that neither team has been pleased with the way they've played defensively in this series. Keep in mind, the Rangers give up just 2.6 goals per game on the season while the Pens check in yielding an average of 2.8 goals per contest. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 14-4 with the Rangers playing on the road off a loss against a division opponent over the last two seasons with that situation producing an average total of only 4.9 goals. Meanwhile, the Penguins have seen the 'under' go 15-5 when playing at home off a win by 2+ goals over a division opponent over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of just 4.8 goals in that spot. Interestingly, the regular season saw three of four meetings between these two teams total five goals or less, including a 1-0 result in favor of the Penguins here in Pittsburgh. Remember, we saw a stretch of 3+ periods without a goal back in the series-opener last week before the Pens prevailed in triple-overtime. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
05-09-22 | Rangers -104 v. Penguins | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
NHL First Round Division Game of the Year. My selection is on New York over Pittsburgh at 7 pm et on Monday. I don't feel that we've seen the Rangers best performance yet in this series. Sure, there was a 5-2 victory in Game 2 but even in that contest, it didn't seem like the Blueshirts were in complete control. Off a 7-4 drubbing on Saturday - a game that featured a furious second period rally from New York after falling behind 4-1 after the first - I look for the Rangers to bounce back in a big way on Monday. A stunningly poor performance from likely Vezina Trophy winner Igor Shesterkin highlighted Game 3 on Saturday. He was pulled early in that contest, a rare sight for sure. I certainly expect the world class goaltender to rebound with a much better performance here. Note that the Rangers check in 15-6 after losing two of their last three games this season, outscoring opponents by 0.9 goals on average in that situation. Better still, they're 7-1 after losing five or six of their last seven contests over the last two seasons, as is the case here, averaging 4.0 goals per game and outscoring the opposition by 1.5 goals on average in that spot. When seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent this season they've allowed an average of only 1.7 goals per game while averaging 3.8 themselves, going 9-1 along the way. The last 37 times we've seen the Penguins play on home ice when leading a playoff series they've been outscored by an average margin of 0.2 goals. Take New York (10*). | |||||||
05-09-22 | Roma v. Fiorentina UNDER 2.5 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Fiorentina and Roma at 2:45 pm et on Monday. With very little separating these two teams in the Seria A table and both on either side of the coveted top-seven places, I'm anticipating a cagey affair on Monday in Florence. Note that Fiorentina enters this match having lost four consecutive matches so it is in desperate need of taking something, anything away from this clash on Monday. Roma on the other hand will be looking to keep its three-match undefeated streak intact. I do feel that Fiorentina is a much better defensive squad that it has shown over its last four contests, noting that it has allowed a grand total of 20 goals in 17 home matches this season. Having conceded the first goal in four of its last five matches, I fully expect Fiorentina to take a fairly cautious approach for much of this one, especially when you consider it has dropped five straight meetings with Roma. This has been a relatively high-scoring series with six of the last seven meetings going 'over' 2.5 total goals but I think we have a different set of circumstances here, noting as I did earlier that there's much at stake here with Roma sitting in a tie for 6th/7th in the Serie A table and Fiorentina just three points back in eighth. Fiorentina actually ranks fourth in Serie A when only factoring in 'home' matches with an impressive +14 goal differential. Take the under (6*). | |||||||
05-09-22 | Royals +1.5 v. Orioles | 1-6 | Loss | -180 | 3 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas City +1.5 runs over Baltimore at 12:05 pm et on Monday. Interestingly, each of the Orioles last four wins have come by at least two runs. I don't believe that's a sustainable trend, especially here at home where runs have come at a premium due to the new field dimensions at Camden Yards. Here, we'll note that the Royals are 19-14 when playing on the road after losing two of their last three games over the last two seasons, as is the case here. The O's meanwhile are just 3-11 in their last 14 games when priced as a favorite of -110 or higher, which is also the situation here, outscored by 2.0 runs on average in that spot. Additionally, Baltimore is a woeful 18-53 in afternoon games over the same stretch, allowing 6.0 runs per game while being outscored by an average margin of 1.6 runs. Take Kansas City +1.5 runs (3*). | |||||||
05-08-22 | Storm v. Aces OVER 175.5 | 74-85 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Las Vegas at 10 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams got off to incredible starts to the season with Seattle registering a 97-74 win over Minnesota and Las Vegas cruising to a 106-88 rout of Phoenix. While both of those games sailed 'over' the total, the fact is both games could have been even higher-scoring but the opposition simply didn't take advantage of the bevy of scoring opportunities they were presented with. Seattle allowed Minnesota to get off a whopping 79 field goal attempts while Las Vegas yielded Phoenix 73 FG attempts. In what shapes up as another fast-paced game between two of the league's elite teams, I'm not sure the oddsmakers can set the total high enough. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
05-08-22 | Suns -1.5 v. Mavs | 101-111 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix over Dallas at 3:30 pm et on Sunday. The Mavericks showed up defensively in Game 3 of this series and delivered a much-needed 103-94 win. Phoenix only managed to get off 76 field goal attempts in that contest yet was still reasonably competitive. Compare that with Dallas, which got off 90 FG attempts but still only made good on 40 of those, noting the Mavs have now been held to 40 or fewer made field goals in six straight games. In stark contrast, prior to Friday's game the Suns had made good on 42+ field goals in 12 consecutive games. Here, I look for the Suns to make the necessary adjustments and take a strange-hold on this series, noting that they're an incredible 16-3 when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by 11.4 points on average in that situation. Take Phoenix (7*). | |||||||
05-08-22 | Hurricanes v. Bruins UNDER 5.5 | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Carolina and Boston at 12:30 pm et on Sunday. This is obviously the pivotal game in this series so far and while it's been a relatively high-scoring matchup to this point with all three games finding their way 'over' 5.5 goals, I expect a different story to unfold on Sunday. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 8-1 with the Bruins coming off three losses in their last four games this season, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 4.6 goals. The 'over' has now cashed in five straight meetings between these two teams - the longest such streak in the series since 2013-2014. Take the under (6*). | |||||||
05-08-22 | White Sox v. Red Sox -145 | 3-2 | Loss | -145 | 2 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston over Chicago at 11:35 am et on Sunday. Enough is enough. The Red Sox suffered another excruciating defeat last night, falling by a 3-1 score in extra innings. I look for them to bounce back on Sunday. Michael Wacha has actually been Boston's best starter in the early going this season, sporting a 1.38 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in 26 innings of work. The Sox, despite their struggles, have actually won each of Wacha's last four outings with their lone loss with him on the hill coming on the road in his season debut in Detroit. Veteran Dallas Keuchel has been wildly inconsistent for the White Sox so far this season. A start at Fenway Park doesn't figure to help his cause as he has allowed 18 earned runs in 24 career innings pitched in Beantown. The Red Sox bullpen has struggled mightily but I do believe their relief corps is far better than they've shown so far and it's only a matter of time before the numbers start to even out. Take Boston (4*). | |||||||
05-07-22 | Flames -155 v. Stars | 2-4 | Loss | -155 | 14 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Calgary over Dallas at 9:30 pm et on Saturday. Coming off a shutout loss in Game 2, I look for the Flames to regain their focus and answer back as the scene shifts to Dallas for Game 3 on Saturday. Shutout victories have been few and far between for the Stars in recent years. One thing is for certain though, they haven't performed well following up on those performances, noting that they check in 1-8 when coming off a shutout win over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 1.1 goals in that situation. The Flames have been one of the best road teams in the league this season, going 25-16 while outscoring the opposition by 0.6 goals on average. The Stars average a less than impressive 2.9 goals overall this season but that average drops to 2.5 when coming off four or five wins in their last six contests (34-game sample size), as is the case here, outscored by 0.4 goals on average in that spot. Take Calgary (6*). | |||||||
05-07-22 | Grizzlies v. Warriors -6.5 | 112-142 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Memphis at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. The Grizzlies have taken the cash in each of the first two games in this series and we won with them in Game 2. I think they'll be hard-pressed to cover in a third straight contest on Saturday, however, as the scene shifts to San Francisco for Game 3. You can be sure Ja Morant's 'you can't guard me' proclamation hasn't sat well with Steph Curry and the rest of the Warriors. Golden State will be out to make an example of Morant and the Grizz on Saturday and I'm confident we'll see them do just that. While the Warriors will be without Gary Payton II, the Grizzlies will miss Dillon Brooks as he serves his one-game suspension for the hard foul on Payton in Game 2. Brooks' absence is arguably more critical. Here, we'll note that Golden State has gone 16-6 ATS when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by a convincing 11.2 points on average in that spot. This series will likely still feature plenty of twists and turns but I believe Saturday's outcome will be fairly straight-forward. Take Golden State (6*). | |||||||
05-07-22 | Dream v. Wings UNDER 160.5 | 66-59 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Dallas at 8 pm et on Saturday. Two teams coming off disappointing 2021 campaigns will look to get the 2022 season off on the right foot on Saturday. I'm not anticipating a ton of offensive fireworks. Dallas looks good on paper but doesn't that always seem to be the case? While this looks like a layup out of the gate with the Dream coming off an 8-24 season, I do think that Atlanta can potentially slow the Wings offense - which runs through Arike Ogunbowale - in this one. Note that the Dream did lead the league in steals a year ago and can be a frustrating team to play against if nothing else. The question is whether the Dream can keep up offensively. They landed the number one overall pick in the draft by trading up, selecting Rhyne Howard. While there's a lot of optimism around her and Aari McDonald (who was somewhat disappointing in her rookie campaign a year ago) it's likely going to take some time for that duo to get in sync. Atlanta is one of the smallest teams in the league so unless the shots are falling here on opening night, things could get ugly. I'm not particularly high on either of these squads and feel this total will prove too high. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
05-07-22 | Brewers v. Braves +1.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta +1.5 runs over Milwaukee at 7:20 pm et on Saturday. Runs will likely come at a premium in this matchup as the Brewers send Corbin Burnes to the hill against Max Fried of the Braves. With that in mind, I'm comfortable laying the juice to grab the insurance run with Atlanta at home. Milwaukee comes in having won four games in a row - with all four of those victories coming by multiple runs. That matches a season-long streak for 2+ run wins. I expect it to end here, noting that Atlanta checks in 32-13 when coming off four or five losses in its last six games over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 2.7 runs on average in that situation. Take Atlanta +1.5 runs (4*). | |||||||
05-07-22 | Celtics v. Bucks OVER 212.5 | 101-103 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Milwaukee at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I can't help but feel the total is moving in the wrong direction here, based solely on the low-scoring outcomes we saw in Games 1 and 2. The pace was actually there for an 'over' result in Game 1 but neither team shot the ball well - the Celtics in particular. The second game saw the Bucks struggle shooting the ball with Boston 'managing' the game from start to finish. Here in Game 3, I look for a different story to unfold. While the Celtics are a terrific defensive team, let's not lose sight of the fact that the Bucks, prior to Game 2, had little trouble finding their opportunities offensively against the C's this season. In five previous matchups they got off 90+ field goal attempts each and every time. I do think we'll see the Celtics hold up their end of the bargain here in Game 3 as well though, noting that the Bucks have allowed opponents to knock down an average of 41-of-91 field goal attempts here at home this season. The previous two meetings between these two teams in Milwaukee this season reached 230 and 248 points. Take the over (7*). | |||||||
05-07-22 | Blue Jays v. Guardians UNDER 6.5 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Cleveland at 2:10 pm et on Saturday. The postponement of last night's game works in our favor as far as this play is concerned. Kevin Gausman had made his last two starts on just four days' rest and was slated to do so again last night. With that game being postponed, he'll now be able to pitch on a full five days' rest on Saturday. Note that the last time he pitched on at least five days' rest he turned in his best outing of the young season, allowing just one earned run over eight innings in Boston. In two previous road starts this season he has posted a 1.98 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. It's a similar story for Guardians ace Shane Bieber. He hasn't started a game since April 30th so I'm confident we'll see his best stuff here. In his lone previous home start he gave up only one earned run over six innings against the White Sox. He's made just one previous home start against the Blue Jays, allowing two earned runs over six innings back in 2019. The night off on Friday certainly helps an overworked Blue Jays bullpen that hadn't enjoyed a day off since April 18th. Note that the Jays relief corps has posted a collective 1.42 ERA and 0.92 WHIP on the road this season. Meanwhile, the Guardians bullpen owns a 2.36 ERA and 1.02 WHIP at home. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
05-06-22 | Cardinals v. Giants OVER 7 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
National League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and San Francisco at 10:15 pm et on Friday. We saw the Cardinals continue their offensive surge in last night's series opener here in San Francisco. The Giants didn't hold up their end of the bargain, however, plating just one run. They've run into some very tough pitching over the last few games but considering they did scratch out 10 hits (and leave 10 men on base) in last night's game, I do think a breakout performance is imminent. Note that the Cards have allowed double-digit hit totals in two of their last three games and I expect a similar outcome tonight. On the flip side, the Giants pitching staff has struggled lately and that's putting it mildly. They've allowed 22, 11, 12, 5, 11 and 12 hits over their last six games and now turn to a struggling Alex Cobb on Friday. Cobb turned in about as bad an outing as a pitcher can have at the big league level last time out, allowing five runs before exiting with only two outs in the first inning. While Cards starter Jordan Hicks has a promising future, he continues to only make brief appearances in a starting role. That leaves a Cards bullpen that has been anything but invincible, recording a 4.35 ERA and 1.31 WHIP over their last seven games. Expect plenty of offense in this game tonight. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
05-06-22 | Suns v. Mavs OVER 219 | Top | 94-103 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
Western Conference First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'over' between Phoenix and Dallas at 9:30 pm et on Friday. At some point in this series, I do expect both the Suns and Mavs to flip the switch and limit the scoring with tough defensive play that we know they're both capable of. I'm just not convinced it happens in the early stages of Game 3 on Friday. The Suns have incredibly knocked down 42+ field goals in 12 consecutive games. They've taken it to another level over their last three games, making good on 45, 46 and 49 field goals. We've certainly seen hot starts from them as well, scoring 51+ points in nine of their last 10 games overall, despite missing Devin Booker for a few of those. Scoring hasn't really been a big issue for the Mavs in this series. They've put up 114 and 109 points despite being limited to 85 and 79 field goal attempts through the first two games. Note that the Suns do allow 40 made field goals per contest away from home this season. We can certainly expect Dallas to force the issue early in this contest as it looks to finally put Phoenix back on its heels and ultimately get back in this series. Here, we'll note that the first half 'over' has gone 40-20 with the Mavs coming off consecutive 'over' results over the last three seasons, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average first half total of 115.6 points. Take the first half over (10*). | |||||||
05-06-22 | Wild v. Blues -109 | 5-1 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis over Minnesota at 9:30 pm et on Friday. We won with the Wild in Game 2 of this series on Wednesday but I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the Blues as the series shifts to St. Louis for Game 3 on Friday. The Wild desperately needed a win to even up this series in Game 2. Not surprisingly, the Blues came out flat after a shutout victory in Game 1. Here, I look for the Blues to ramp up again and ultimately prove to be too much for the Wild to handle. Minnesota continues to struggle to keep the puck out of its net. It acquired Marc-Andre Fleury to shore up its goaltending situation prior to the trade deadline but he's only been average at best - certainly not the savior some were expecting. Note that the Wild are allowing 3.2 goals per game on the road this season. When playing on the road off a home win over a division opponent over the last two seasons, as is the case here, they've allowed a whopping 4.7 goals per game, outscored by 2.4 goals on average while winning just once in nine games. The Blues on the other hand have allowed 6+ goals in a game on six previous occasions this season. Each time they've responded with a win in their next game, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 3.1 goals in that situation. Take St. Louis (8*). | |||||||
05-06-22 | Rays v. Mariners -124 | 8-7 | Loss | -124 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle over Tampa Bay at 9:40 pm et on Friday. We won with the Mariners on the run-line last night and were certainly fortunate to do so in a tight 4-3 loss. Here, I look for Seattle to do one better and actually snap its four-game skid at the expense of the streaking Rays. It's been quite a fall from grace for the Mariners as they've now lost eight of their last nine games overall. It all started against these same Rays in St. Petersburg. I do look for them to regain their footing with arguably their best pitcher on the mound in Logan Gilbert. He may not be getting the national attention he deserves but he's been one of the best pitchers in baseball through the first month of the season. Gilbert checks in sporting a sparkling 0.64 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 28 innings of work. The Mariners have won all five of his starts. That includes an 8-4 win over these same Rays as Gilbert came an out shy of lasting six shutout innings. Matt Wisler will counter for Tampa Bay. He's served the 'opener' role twice this season and has admittedly pitched well. I simply feel the Mariners bats are poised for a breakout performance here after being held to five hits or less in four consecutive games. Keep in mind, prior to that stretch they had recorded double-digit hit totals in five of their previous eight games. This is a game Seattle quite simply needs to get in order to stop the bleeding. Take Seattle (6*). | |||||||
05-06-22 | Sparks v. Sky OVER 155.5 | 98-91 | Win | 100 | 23 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Chicago at 8 pm et on Friday. All three of last year's meetings between these two teams saw closing totals higher than the number we're working with on Friday. Perhaps the oddsmakers are expecting the two teams to ease their way into the campaign but I'm not convinced that will be the case. After missing the playoffs last year, the Sparks will be determined to get off to a strong start this season. They made a big splash in the offseason, landing Liz Cambage from the Las Vegas Aces. The addition of sharp-shooter Chennedy Carter from Atlanta should pay immediate dividends as well. Keep in mind, despite the down season in 2021, the Sparks actually took all three meetings against the Sky. Chicago will likely once again be in the mix for a championship and playing with 'triple-revenge' should give the Sparks their best punch here, even if it is only game one of the season. The Sky barely broke a sweat in their two preseason games - both losses - but still scored 77 and 75 points. While the Sparks offense should be improved, their defense will remain a work-in-progress under head coach Derek Fisher. Expect plenty of fireworks in this one. Take the over (5*). | |||||||
05-06-22 | White Sox v. Red Sox -160 | 4-2 | Loss | -160 | 7 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston over Chicago at 7:10 pm et on Friday. Boston is struggling right now. Sending two back of the rotation starters to the hill against the Angels over the last two days didn't help matters. Here on Friday, I look for Nathan Eovaldi to help the Sox snap out of their funk. Vince Velasquez will take the ball for Chicago. He tossed 5 2/3 innings of shutout ball against the aforementioned Angels last time out. Don't count on a repeat performance here as he was rocked for five earned runs in just 3 1/3 innings in his only previous road start this season and got lit up for eight earned runs without lasting even three innings in a start here at Fenway Park as a member of the Phillies last season. Eovaldi meanwhile has been getting stronger with each start and comes off a seven inning shutout performance against the Orioles. He's come up empty win-wise over his last two outings but it certainly hasn't been his fault as he gave up just two earned runs in 14 innings in those two starts. Eovaldi faced the White Sox once last season, striking out 10 while working into the seventh inning in an 11-4 cakewalk. While I don't love what I've seen from the Red Sox bullpen so far this season, I do think it's only a matter of time before that group rights the ship. Let's call for the turnaround to begin tonight. Take Boston (5*). | |||||||
05-06-22 | Fever v. Mystics -6 | 70-84 | Win | 100 | 22 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington minus the points over Indiana at 7 pm et on Friday. While it was 'only the preseason' I saw enough out of the Mystics to believe they're back on the right track after missing the playoffs during an injury-marred 2021 campaign. The Indiana Fever remain in a perennial rebuild and while it does seem that they're finally pointed in the right direction (after making a whopping seven draft picks) it's going to take some time. They were wildly inconsistent in a pair of preseason contests and I expect more of the same out of the gate during the regular season. Unfortunately the schedule makers didn't do them any favors in their opener as they have to hit the road to face a hungry and experienced Mystics squad. This from Ariel Atkins on the first day of Mystics training camp back on April 18th, "We didn’t make playoffs last year. Ain’t nothing else we need to be talking about but work." “We didn’t make playoffs last year,” she repeated minutes later. "That’s not okay. It’s unacceptable.” Look for the Mystics to make a statement in their home opener on Friday. Take Washington (6*). | |||||||
05-06-22 | Real Sociedad v. Levante UNDER 2.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -102 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
La Liga Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Levante and Real Sociedad at 3 pm et on Friday. I'm expecting a rather cagey affair between these two La Liga sides on Friday in Valencia. Real Sociedad comes in having failed to record a victory in its last three matches. It still sits sixth in the La Liga table, with a four-point cushion over seventh-place Villarreal and a seven-point advantage on Athletic, which sits in eighth. There's no question Sociedad would like to claim all three points in this match but I don't believe it will come easy. Levante sits last in the La Liga table. It will undoubtedly take on a defensive form here noting that it has gone four matches without recording a clean sheet and eight contests without doing so in this particular series. The last two matches between these two squads have gone 1-0 to Sociedad. With Levante giving up the first goal in five of the last six meetings, I would anticipate it throwing everything it has at Sociedad early in this one in an effort to stem the tide. Note that as bad as Levante has been this season, it actually has a goal differential of just -5 at home, where it has conceded just over 1.6 goals per contest. Noting that Sociedad has seen less than 2.5 goals in six of its last seven matches, I believe both sides will be comfortable in a low-scoring affair here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
05-06-22 | Arminia Bielefeld v. VfL Bochum OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
Bundesliga Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Vfl Bochum and Arminia Bielefeld at 2:30 pm et on Friday. Bielefeld could desperately use the three points from this 'away' match on Friday as it currently sits six points back of 15th-place Hertha Berlin - a spot that would mean avoiding relegation. It has to feel it at least has a puncher's chance in this one, noting that Bochum is a middling Bundesliga side that has failed to deliver a victory in the last five meetings in this series. While eight of the last 10 matches between these two squads have stayed 'under' 2.5 total goals, I believe that's only serving to provide us with some value on the 'over' in this one. Keep in mind, Bochum has gone three matches without recording a clean sheet. Bielefeld has had a miserable time keeping the ball out of its own net, allowing the first goal in nine consecutive matches while going winless over that stretch. Bielefeld has managed to find a goal in three of its last five matches - in the only two contests where it didn't over that stretch, it allowed four. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
05-05-22 | Rays v. Mariners +1.5 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle +1.5 runs over Tampa Bay at 9:40 pm et on Thursday. While the Rays enter this series 'fat and happy' following a three-game sweep of the A's in Oakland, culminating with yesterday's 3-0 shutout victory, the Mariners enter hungry off a three-game sweep at the hands of the Astros in Houston. Nothing went Seattle's way in that series in Houston. Needless to say it will be happy to be back home on Thursday. As if the Mariners needed any more motivation, they'll also be looking to avenge a series loss suffered on the road against the Rays in April. They actually outscored Tampa Bay 11-9 over the course of that three-game set. There's not a lot to choose as far as the starting pitching matchup goes tonight with Shane McClanahan taking the ball for the Rays against Robbie Ray of the Mariners. I do think that Ray was brought in precisely for situations like this where Seattle needs a pick-me-up and it's worth noting that Ray has guided the M's to victory in each of his previous two home starts this season recording a 3.00 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in 12 innings of work. With the the bullpens virtually a wash as well, we'll grab the insurance run with the Mariners in what projects to be a tightly-contested affair. Take Seattle +1.5 runs (3*). | |||||||
05-05-22 | Penguins v. Rangers -138 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 31 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Pittsburgh at 7 pm et on Thursday. The Penguins rallied to take the opener of this series in thrilling triple-overtime fashion on Tuesday so now it's up to the Rangers to answer back before the scene shifts to Pittsburgh for Game 3. I expect them to do just that in Game 2 on Thursday. Here, we'll note that the Pens are just 15-23 when playing on the road after scoring 3+ goals in consecutive games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscored by 0.5 goals on average in that situation. The Rangers have hit a rough patch at a tough time but the good news is, they're 12-6 after losing four or five of their last six games over the last two seasons, which is the situation here, averaging 3.6 goals per game and outscoring the opposition by 1.1 goals on average in that spot. Bouncing back hasn't been a big issue for the Blueshirts in recent years as they're 30-16 when coming off a home loss over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.0 goal along the way. Keep in mind, the Rangers had won three straight meetings in this series before the Penguins pulled out the win on Tuesday. Now it's New York's turn to gain an ounce of revenge. Take New York (9*). | |||||||
05-05-22 | Penguins v. Rangers UNDER 6 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
NHL First Round Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and New York at 7 pm et on Thursday. I can't help but feel we're seeing an overreaction to a couple of things from Game 1 of this series, leading to plenty of '6's' on the board for Game 2. First of all, the series-opener was a high-scoring one, with seven goals scored, albeit in more than five periods of hockey. We certainly saw how things can tighten up, however, noting that there was just one goal scored in the first period and none in the third (or in the first or second overtime periods of course). Second, the Penguins were already down a goalie with Tristan Jarry on the shelf but Casey DeSmith was forced to leave Game 1 due to injury as well and his status is still up in the air for Game 2. Keep in mind, Louis Domingue stepped in and performed admirably, just as he has whenever he's been called upon this season, posting a .960 save percentage in three games, with the 'under' cashing in both of his previous starts. Rangers goaltender and likely Vezina Trophy winner Igor Shesterkin did not have a good Game 1. I expect him to bounce back here, however. He owns a .941 save percentage at home this season with the 'under' cashing in 19 of his 30 starts at Madison Square Garden. The 'under' checks in 12-4 with the Rangers playing at home after scoring 3+ goals in three or more consecutive games over the last two seasons, leading to an average total of just 5.2 goals. The Penguins average an impressive 3.3 goals per game this season but that scoring average drops to 2.7 goals per contest over the last three seasons when they play on the road after scoring 3+ goals in consecutive games, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
05-05-22 | Mets v. Phillies -158 | 8-7 | Loss | -158 | 8 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over New York at 6:45 pm et on Thursday. The Phillies will likely be happy to see the Rangers leave town after they dropped consecutive games in frustrating fashion against Texas. On Tuesday, Philadelphia blew a 3-2 lead and lost 6-4 despite outhitting the Rangers - unable to cash in on its many opportunities at the plate. Last night, the Phils couldn't score a single run in nine innings, wasting Zack Wheeler's fine performance in an eventual 2-1 extra innings loss. I do feel that the Phillies offense is on the verge of breaking out, noting that they rattled off 17 hits but left 13 on base in the two-game series against Texas. Here, they'll be looking to get back at the Mets after dropping two of three in Queens last weekend. I like their chances with Aaron Nola taking the ball on Thursday. He hasn't posted a win since his season debut but it hasn't been for lack of effort. Nola has posted a 2.45 ERA and 0.87 WHIP over his last three starts. He struck out nine without walking a batter, allowing three earned runs in six innings against these same Mets last time out. Taijuan Walker will counter for the Mets. He's only made two appearances so far this season as he deals with a nagging injury. While he has pitched reasonably well, I'm not convinced we'll see him work deep into this game. That means we should see plenty of a sagging Mets bullpen that has posted a 5.81 ERA and 1.15 WHIP and has recorded four saves but also three blown saves on the road this season. By contrast, the Phillies bullpen owns a 3.42 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with three saves converted and none blown at home. Take Philadelphia (3*). | |||||||
05-05-22 | Nationals v. Rockies -135 | 7-9 | Win | 100 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado over Washington at 3:10 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Rockies last night and we'll come right back with them again on Thursday as they wrap up this three-game series before heading back out on the road. As is often the case, the Rockies have been much better at home so far this season, going 10-5 while averaging 5.5 runs per game here at Coors Field. The same goes for today's starter Antonio Senzatela. He has posted a stellar 1.84 ERA in three home starts this season, with Colorado winning all three of those contests. His 1.77 WHIP certainly leaves a lot to be desired but I do like the way he's limited the damage and some of that has just been bad luck as he's actually issued only three walks in 14 2/3 innings of work here at home. Aaron Sanchez gets another turn in the Nationals rotation after a solid performance in San Francisco last weekend. His early returns are certainly nothing to write home about this season though as he's recorded a 6.75 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in two starts, covering a span of 9 1/3 innings. The Rockies actually saw him twice last season and had some success with Sanchez allowing six earned runs in 8 2/3 innings. The Washington bullpen remains a disaster on the road where it has posted a 6.58 ERA and 1.69 WHIP with just one save converted to go along with one blown. In stark contrast, the Rockies 'pen has recorded a 3.76 ERA and 1.22 WHIP at home, picking up its eighth home save last night, compared to only two blown at Coors Field. Take Colorado (3*). | |||||||
05-05-22 | Venezia v. Salernitana OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 106 | 4 h 44 m | Show |
Serie A Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Salernitana and Venezia at 12 noon et on Thursday. In principle, I'm not convinced we should see totals set south of 3.0 goals in matches involving Venezia. It continues to bring up the rear in the Seria A table and has now conceded at least a goal in an incredible 23 consecutive matches. It has also gone winless in its last 10 Serie A tilts, carrying a streak of nine straight outright defeats. You have to think that this could potentially be the spot to break that skid, however, noting that Salernitana sits just four points ahead in the Serie A table, with an even worse goal margin of -42. It does check in undefeated across its last four contests but has also seen both teams find the back of the net in four of its last five overall. It's not as if this hasn't been a competitive series as each of the last three matches have been decided by a single goal with both teams scoring in all three of those contests. When they last met in October 2021, Venezia fell by a 2-1 score, thanks in large part to playing shorthanded following a red card in the 67th minute. With both sides extremely vulnerable at the back-end and with little reason to hold anything back up front, I'm confident we'll see some offensive fireworks here. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
05-04-22 | Kings v. Oilers -182 | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Edmonton over Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Wednesday. Don't think for a second that the Oilers aren't still haunted by last year's first round four-game sweep at the hands of the Jets. Edmonton didn't get off to the start that it hoped for in this series, falling 4-3 to the Kings on Monday. I look for the Oilers to answer back on Wednesday, noting that they're still 28-14 on home ice this season, averaging 3.8 goals per game and outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.7 goals. The Kings on the other hand, check in a solid 24-18 on the road but have actually been outscored by an average margin of 0.1 goal per game. You could argue that Los Angeles was in a favorable spot in the opener of this series as it had dropped three consecutive meetings against the Oilers so motivation was sky-high. Now the shoe is on the other foot as Edmonton is playing with revenge, noting that it has gone a perfect 5-0 in that situation in this particular series going back to 2018. Take Edmonton (5*). | |||||||
05-04-22 | Blues v. Wild -127 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
Central Division First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Minnesota over St. Louis at 9:30 pm et on Wednesday. The Wild got caught in the trap of thinking that home ice advantage alone would carry them in the opener of this series - after all, they did go an incredible 31-10 here in the 'State of Hockey' during the regular season. The Blues had other ideas, cruising to a 4-0 victory - their sixth consecutive win against the Wild. I look for Minnesota to answer back in Game 2 on Wednesday. Note that the Blues are just 6-14 when playing on the road after scoring 3+ goals in four consecutive games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscored by 0.4 goals on average in that situation. The Wild meanwhile are a perfect 8-0 when coming off a home loss by 2+ goals this season, averaging 4.6 goals per game and outscoring opponents by 2.2 goals on average in that spot. While the Wild certainly went through a rough stretch from mid-February to mid-March, they did manage to turn it around down the stretch and despite the disappointment of that lopsided Game 1 defeat, not to mention the fact that St. Louis has owned this series this season, I don't expect them to roll over on home ice. Take Minnesota (10*). | |||||||
05-04-22 | Nationals v. Rockies -138 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado over Washington at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Rockies got shelled in the opener of this series last night, failing to match a season-high four-game winning streak in the process. The Nationals bats have come alive on their current road trip but I look for them to cool off on Wednesday. First, let's talk about Nats' starter Pat Corbin. How many more turns will he get in the rotation? The Nats' have now dropped each of his last six starts and 17 of his last 22 outings going back to last season. It hasn't just been a case of bad luck either. Corbin has been awful. He checks in sporting a 8.69 ERA and 2.08 WHIP in 19 2/3 innings of work this season. His counterpart tonight, Austin Gomber, got off to a shaky start but has since turned it around, allowing only two earned runs in 12 innings pitched over his last two starts, striking out 14 and walking just one along the way. While the Rockies bullpen hasn't been great lately, it still owns a collective 3.93 ERA and 1.27 WHIP with seven saves converted and two blown here at home this season. Contrast that with the Nats' 'pen, which has posted a 6.58 ERA and 1.69 WHIP with just one save converted and one blown on the road. Take Colorado (6*). | |||||||
05-04-22 | 76ers v. Heat OVER 207 | Top | 103-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Miami at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday. Game 1 of this series proved to be relatively low-scoring with the Heat rolling to a 106-92 victory. The 'under' has now cashed in each of Miami's last four games but the pace hasn't necessarily dictated such a streak. Note that the Heat have gotten off 92+ field goal attempts in three of their last four games. The only contest where they didn't reach that number was Game 5 against Atlanta, a game that Jimmy Butler missed due to injury. With Philadelphia sagging defensively, yielding its opponents' at least 86 field goal attempts in five of its last six games (it allows just 84 FG attempts per game on the season), I look for Miami's offense to continue to surge here in Game 2. The question becomes whether the Joel Embiid-less 76ers can hold up their end of the bargain and help this one 'over' the relatively low posted total. I believe they can. Note that Philadelphia still got to 92 points despite making good on just 34 field goals including just six made three-pointers in Game 1 of this series. The Sixers hoisted up just 79 FG attempts in the loss. I certainly anticipate them finding more scoring opportunities here, noting that Miami has allowed 45, 42, 45, 41, 41 and 31 made field goals (it allowed 94 points in the outlier - Game 5 against Atlanta last round) in its last six games following a win. While Joel Embiid's absence has to be considered, it is worth noting that the 76ers have averaged 115.7 points per game when coming off a game in which they scored 95 points or less over the last two seasons (15-game sample size). Take the over (10*). | |||||||
05-04-22 | Rangers v. Phillies -160 | 2-1 | Loss | -160 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over Texas at 6:45 pm et on Wednesday. The Phillies coughed up a 3-2 lead in an eventual 6-4 loss to the Rangers to open this brief two-game set last night. Philadelphia had numerous opportunities to cash in late in that contest but simply couldn't find a clutch hit. I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday. The Rangers have now matched a season-high with three straight wins. I look for them to fall short with left-hander Martin Perez on the hill here, however. Note that the Phillies are averaging 5.7 runs per game while winning four of six games against southpaw starters this season. Zack Wheeler will be tasked with helping the Phils end their two-game slide. As usual, he's been terrific at home, posting a 2.87 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 15 2/3 innings of work. Behind Wheeler is a Philadelphia bullpen that has recorded a 3.40 ERA and 1.15 WHIP with three saves converted and none blown at home this season. The Rangers 'pen has posted similar numbers on the road, but have just two converted saves to go along with two blown. Take Philadelphia (4*). | |||||||
05-04-22 | Manchester City v. Real Madrid OVER 3 | Top | 1-2 | Push | 0 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
Champions League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Real Madrid and Manchester City at 3 pm et on Wednesday. I believe we're in for a real treat in the second leg of this epic Champions League semi-final showdown between Real Madrid and Manchester City on Wednesday. Keep in mind, the first leg met expectations and then some as Man City prevailed by a 4-3 score on home soil. Here, I expect City and its oft-vulnerable back-end to have an extremely difficult time containing a Real Madrid offense that has absolutely rounded into form in recent months. Both of these teams are no strangers to high-scoring affairs. They both enter this match having seen each of their last five contests total at least three goals. I like the fact that Real Madrid needs to erase a one-goal deficit here at home while Man City will also be striving for goals having allowed a whopping three 'away' goals in the first leg. While Man City has won four consecutive meetings between these European powerhouses, you would have to go back six matches to find the last time it recorded a clean sheet against Real Madrid. For its part, Real Madrid hasn't held Man City off the scoresheet in any of the last four meetings between the two and in current form isn't the impenetrable defensive squad it once was. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
05-04-22 | Diamondbacks v. Marlins -143 | 8-7 | Loss | -143 | 6 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami over Arizona at 12:40 pm et on Wednesday. We missed with the Marlins last night as their late rally fell short in a second consecutive 5-4 loss at the hands of the D'Backs. That makes it three straight losses for Miami but I look for it to bounce back on 'getaway day'. D'Backs starter Madison Bumgarner has been terrific in the early going this season. For as well as he has pitched, the Snakes have still only managed to win two of his five starts, however. A big reason for that is a shaky bullpen that once again struggled to hold a big lead last night (Arizona led the game 5-0). I also feel some regression could be in order when it comes to Bumgarner, noting that he'll be starting on just four days' rest for a third consecutive turn in the rotation. Elieser Hernandez will counter for Miami. He has labored through his last two outings but does enter this start undefeated in his last three trips to the hill. His lone previous daytime start was arguably his best of the season as he allowed just one earned run over six frames in an 11-3 win over the Phillies. Behind Hernandez is a Marlins bullpen that has been terrific in the early going this season, tossing 4 2/3 innings of shutout ball again last night to even give the Fish a chance at rallying. Take Miami (5*). | |||||||
05-03-22 | Rays v. A's +116 | 10-7 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oakland over Tampa Bay at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. The A's have now dropped four games in a row following last night's lifeless performance in the opener of this series. I do look for them to respond on Tuesday, however, as they send Paul Blackburn - who has arguably been their best starter so far this season - to the hill against the Rays. The A's are still just three games under .500 this season so it's not as if the sky is falling. If they're to turn it around, Blackburn would appear to be the right guy to have on the mound as he has posted a 4-0 team record with a sparkling 1.35 ERA and 0.80 WHIP through four starts this season. That includes a start that saw him toss five innings of shutout ball in a 13-2 rout of the Rays in St. Petersburg. Behind Blackburn is an A's bullpen that continues to pitch well, having recorded a collective 2.59 ERA and 1.15 WHIP with three saves converted and only one blown here at home this season. The Rays are still undecided as to who will start this game but I'm confident back the A's as an 'action' bet in this prime bounce-back spot on Tuesday. Take Oakland (4*). | |||||||
05-03-22 | Warriors v. Grizzlies +2 | 101-106 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Golden State at 9:30 pm et on Tuesday. Most already have the Warriors advancing past the Grizzlies in this series, especially after Memphis came so close but seemed so far in Sunday's Game 1 loss. There were positives for the Grizzlies to take away from that setback, however. They got off 95 field goal attempts. That's notable considering the Warriors allowed more than 87 field goal attempts just once in their opening round series against Denver. They also shot better from beyond the arc and got to the free throw line four more times than Golden State. We know there's still some inconsistency in the Warriors game - perhaps a product of so many key pieces being in and out of the lineup over the course of the season. Memphis knows it can hang with Golden State and a one-point loss in the series opener won't do anything to change that. The Grizzlies have still won three of five meetings between these two teams this season. They know, however, that Game 2 is essentially a 'must-win' as they're unlikely to take three of four games in San Francisco, where the Warriors are 34-10 SU this season. Take Memphis (5*). | |||||||
05-03-22 | Nationals v. Rockies -148 | 10-2 | Loss | -148 | 13 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado over Washington at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Nationals impressively turned things around by taking two of three games in San Francisco over the weekend. They probably would have liked to get right back out there on Monday but instead they had a travel day before opening this series in Colorado on Tuesday. The Rockies are feeling some good vibes as well after a three-game sweep of the lowly Reds. I simply feel Colorado's recent success is more sustainable as we head into this series. The Rockies are 9-4 at home this season, averaging 5.8 runs per game at Coors Field. Interestingly, the Nationals are averaging 6.0 runs per game on the road yet that's only translated to a 5-5 'away' record. That has a lot to do with a struggling Washington pitching staff, noting that its bullpen has posted a 6.69 ERA and 1.75 WHIP with only one save converted and one blown away from home this season. In stark contrast, the Rockies 'pen has posted a 3.69 ERA and 1.23 WHIP here at home, converting seven saves while blowing only two. The starting pitching matchup is virtually a 'wash' based on early returns this season but I look for the Colorado offense and bullpen to prove to be the difference here. Take Colorado (5*). | |||||||
05-03-22 | Capitals v. Panthers OVER 6.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -117 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
Eastern Conference First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Florida at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. You would have to go back nine meetings in this series to find the last time a game finished with fewer than seven total goals. I don't expect that to change in the opener of this first round series on Tuesday. The Capitals struggled offensively down the stretch but they were also without Alex Ovechkin for their last three contests. He is expected back in the lineup for Tuesday's contest. A bigger concern than the Caps recent offensive woes is their situation defensively and in goal. They allowed at least four goals in six of their last nine games down the stretch. Both Ilya Samsonov and Vitek Vanecek struggled between the pipes. Now they have to face a Panthers squad that averaged 4.7 goals per game on home ice during the regular season. Florida will give its share of goals up as well though. The Panthers have allowed 2.9 goals per game at home this season and will have to contend with a Caps offense that averages an impressive 3.5 goals per contest on the road. The most recent meeting between these two teams went Florida's way by a 5-4 score. That's notable as the 'over' is a perfect 8-0 with the Capitals seeking revenge for a loss in which their opponent scored 5+ goals this season, resulting in an average total of 7.7 goals. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
05-03-22 | Bucks v. Celtics OVER 215 | Top | 86-109 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 58 m | Show |
NBA Second Round First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'over' between Milwaukee and Boston at 7 pm et on Tuesday. We nailed our only first half total in the opening round of the playoffs. That play was on the 'over' in the first half of Game 1 between the Nets and Celtics. In my analysis of that play I noted that the Celtics have had a tendency to get involved in high-scoring first halves in playoff action but the scoring hasn't always been sustainable. We saw a glimpse of that in Game 1 of this series as the two teams scored 102 points in the first half before just 89 points were scored in the second half. Here, I'm anticipating an even higher-scoring opening half as the Celtics shake off the rust after a dismal shooting effort in Game 1. Perhaps that poor offensive performance was to be expected as Boston was playing following a five-day layoff thanks to its opening round sweep of the Nets. Milwaukee was also playing on extended rest, but just three days. I simply don't feel we saw either team's best punch from an offensive standpoint. Here, I look for the Celtics to force the issue offensively in the opening half, but the defending champion Bucks are unlikely to back down early on, leading to plenty of points in the game's first 24 minutes. Take the first half over (10*). | |||||||
05-03-22 | Bucks v. Celtics -4.5 | 86-109 | Win | 100 | 22 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over Milwaukee at 7 pm et on Tuesday. The Celtics didn't bring their 'A' game in the opener of this series or anything close to it. They managed to knock down just 28 field goals yet still lost by 'only' 12 points. Perhaps that poor offensive performance was to be expected as they were coming off a five-day layoff thanks to their opening round sweep of the Nets. Here, we'll confidently back the C's noting they've gone a perfect 9-0 ATS after being held to 95 points or less in their previous game this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 9.6 points in that spot. The Bucks on the other hand are a woeful 18-30 ATS when coming off four wins in their last five games over the last two seasons, as is the case here. Milwaukee has now reeled off four consecutive wins both SU and ATS but streaks like that are uncommon in the postseason and I look for it to grind to a halt here as the Celtics win this one going away to get back in the series. Take Boston (9*). | |||||||
05-03-22 | Rangers v. Phillies -155 | 6-4 | Loss | -155 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over Texas at 6:45 pm et on Tuesday. The Rangers took consecutive games from another N.L. East opponent in the Braves over the weekend. Meanwhile, the Phillies dropped two of three games against the rival Mets in New York. I look for Philadelphia to bounce back here at home with one of their most consistent starters going back to last season taking the ball in Ranger Suarez. While Suarez hasn't gotten off to the start he had hoped for, the Phillies have still managed to win all four of his outings. The Rangers entered the seasons with sky-high offensive expectations but it hasn't really worked out all that great so far as they've won just 8 of 22 games and check in having scored three runs or less in seven of their last nine contests. It's true the Phillies were no-hit by the Mets this past Friday but they've still scored 6+ runs in five of their last seven games, averaging 6.0 runs per contest over that stretch. The Rangers are still undecided on their starter for Tuesday's game but there aren't many great options on this pitching staff. Look for Philadelphia to bounce back. Take Philadelphia (4*). | |||||||
05-03-22 | Diamondbacks v. Marlins -155 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -155 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
N.L. Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Miami over Arizona at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. The D'Backs took the opener of this series last night to improve to an even 6-6 on the road this season. The Marlins didn't get a strong start from Pablo Lopez and ultimately dug too big of a hole to rally, falling just short in a 5-4 contest. After winning seven straight games, Miami has now dropped consecutive games. I look for it to bounce back here. Humberto Castellanos is expected to get the start for the D'Backs. He has turned in one good start and one bad one on the road this season but the D'Backs have lost both of those games by lopsided margins of 5-0 and 8-3. With Castellanos unlikely to work deep into this game (he's yet to last six innings in any of his 10 previous big league starts) we'll likely see plenty of a D'Backs bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a 5.62 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 40 innings of work on the road this season. Left-hander Trevor Rogers projects to get the start for the Marlins in this one. He got off to a rough start through two outings this season but has since turned it around, allowing only one earned run on six hits over 11 innings in his last two outings. He should feel confident facing the D'Backs after tossing six impressive innings against them in a 5-1 win in Arizona last season. Miami's relief corps entered last night's game with a 3.12 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 34 2/3 innings pitched at home this season with three saves converted and none blown. Take Miami (10*). | |||||||
05-02-22 | Mavs v. Suns OVER 214.5 | Top | 114-121 | Win | 100 | 15 h 36 m | Show |
Western Conference Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Phoenix at 10 pm et on Monday. The Mavs were involved in an incredibly low-scoring playoff series against the Jazz in the opening round (by today's NBA standards anyway). I expect a much different series to play out as they face the high-flying Suns in round two. Phoenix is in fine form offensively, even with Devin Booker in and out of the lineup. They enter Game 1 of this series having made good on 42+ field goals in nine consecutive games. That's despite the fact that they've gotten off 87 or fewer field goal attempts in each of their last six contests. I do anticipate the pace picking up a bit in this particular series, as the Mavs know they won't simply be able to slug it out and prevail the way they did against the struggling Jazz. Dallas entered the playoffs on an offensive tear, having knocked down 45, 42 and 46 field goals over its final three regular season games. Of course, an injury to Luka Doncic derailed its offense in the early stages of the series against Utah but the Mavs were able to rally and ultimately brush aside the discombobulated Jazz without too much stress. It's worth noting that Dallas got off 92 and 90 field goal attempts in its two regular season matchups with the Suns here in Phoenix. It didn't take full advantage, however, and the Suns won both of those games, knocking down 41 and 44 field goals in the process. As good as the Mavs can be defensively, I don't see them slowing a Suns offense that averages 44 made field goals and north of 115 points per game at home this season. The Mavs haven't suffered much of a drop-off in offensive production on the road compared to at home this season (of note, their highest-scoring game of the opening round came in Game 3 in Utah when they scored 126 points). As I mentioned, I expect the pace to tick up a shade in this series, particularly here in Phoenix where the Suns have allowed opponents to get off 89 field goal attempts per game this season. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
05-02-22 | Mariners v. Astros -129 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston over Seattle at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The Astros are coming off a tight series in Toronto that saw them drop two of three games. I expect them to get back in the win column as they host the division rival Mariners on Monday. Houston will be looking for payback after dropping two of three games in Seattle earlier this season, including an 11-1 setback in a game that featured the identical pitching matchup to what we'll see tonight. Marco Gonzales will take the hill for Seattle. He was forced to exit his last start after just 1/3 of an inning due to an injury. That wasn't before giving up a hit, a walk and an earned run. Note that Gonzales also struggled in his previous road outing this season, lasting only two innings in a 10-4 loss in Minnesota (he gave up six runs, two of them earned). While he did pitch exceptionally well in his previous outing against the Mariners, that was at home. In Gonzales's five career starts in Houston, the Mariners have been outscored by a combined margin of 36-12. Jake Odorizzi will counter for Houston. He got hit hard in that start opposing Gonzales earlier this season. However, in two home starts against the Mariners since the start of last season, Odorizzi has posted a 2-0 team record, allowing just three earned runs in 10 2/3 innings. We'll also note that the Astros bullpen has been outstanding at home this season, recording a collective 1.35 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 26 2/3 innings of work. Take Houston (6*). | |||||||
05-02-22 | Lightning v. Maple Leafs -120 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Toronto over Tampa Bay at 7:30 pm et on Monday. We'll fade the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Lightning in their playoff opener on Monday. The Leafs past playoff failures have been well-documented. While they certainly draw a tough opening round opponent in the Lightning, I do feel this is their best team in a number of years - one capable of making a deep playoff run. That's a story for another day, however. Here, I expect the Leafs to get this series off on the right foot, noting that the Lightning have shown some cracks in their armor this season, particularly down the stretch. Tampa Bay checks in having allowed 3.9 goals per game, outscored by an average margin of 0.6 goals, when playing on the road after winning six or seven of their last eight games this season (17-game sample size), as is the case here. The Leafs rested most of their stars but still notched a regular season-ending 5-2 win over the Bruins. That's notable as they've averaged 4.5 goals per game while outscoring opponents by 1.4 goals on average after scoring 5+ goals in their previous game this season (28-game sample size), which is the situation here. Also of note, Leafs goaltender Jack Campbell, who had an extended rough stretch during the regular season, bounced back to post a .941 save percentage over his last five starts with the Leafs going 4-1 in those games. Take Toronto (10*). | |||||||
05-02-22 | Twins -140 v. Orioles | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
A.L. Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota over Baltimore at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The Twins are locked-in at the plate right now, having delivered 14, 9, 5, 9, 11, 3, 14 and 13 hits over their last eight games and even in the two outliers over that stretch they still managed to go 1-1 (they're 9-1 over their last 10 games overall). The Orioles delivered consecutive wins over a struggling Red Sox squad over the weekend but I think the win streak ends here. While I give the Twins only a slight edge in terms of starting pitching, I do think they have a more decisive advantage as far as the bullpens go with Minnesota's relief corps having posted a collective 2.28 ERA and 1.05 WHIP over its last seven games while Baltimore's 'pen has recorded a 5.83 ERA and 1.50 WHIP over the same stretch. Despite their nine-run explosion yesterday, the O's are still averaging only 3.2 runs per game at home this season while Minnesota has put up 4.0 runs per contest on the road. Take Minnesota (10*). | |||||||
05-02-22 | Twins v. Orioles OVER 7.5 | 2-1 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Baltimore at 7:05 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are in fine form at the dish right now, noting that the Twins have pounded out 14, 9, 5, 9, 11, 3, 14 and 13 hits over their last eight games while the Orioles have posted their two highest hit totals of the season in their last four games (14 and 13). Meanwhile, the O's have yet to go more than two games without recording an error this season, which is a streak they'll test tonight. Note that they're just three games removed from a five-error affair against the Yankees last week. The Twins have averaged 6.0 runs per game over the last week while the Orioles have averaged 4.7 runs per contest over that same stretch. While Baltimore's average doesn't appear overly impressive, it is certainly an improvement over its season scoring average of 3.2 runs per game. There's nothing special about the pitching matchup in this one while the potential is certainly there for late runs with the Orioles bullpen in particular struggling to the tune of a collective 5.83 ERA and 1.50 WHIP over their last seven games. Just two of six meetings between these two teams last season totalled fewer than nine runs. Take the over (5*). | |||||||
05-01-22 | Tigers v. Dodgers -240 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Detroit at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. This play sets up similarly to the Giants yesterday and I expect a similar outcome as well. The Tigers snapped their six-game losing streak with a 5-1 win over Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers last night. Look for Walker Buehler, fresh off a complete game shutout, to pick up the Boys in Blue on Sunday afternoon. Even with last night's victory, the Tigers are still averaging a woeful 2.2 runs per game on the road this season and don't figure to improve on that mark against the Dodgers best arm on Sunday. Meanwhile, Detroit starter Eduardo Rodriguez has posted a 5.03 ERA and 1.27 WHIP despite having the benefit of making three of his four starts at pitcher-friendly Comerica Park this season. The Dodgers check in averaging 5.0 runs per game at home this season and they improve on that here. Take Los Angeles (3*). | |||||||
05-01-22 | Nationals v. Giants OVER 7.5 | 11-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and San Francisco at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. This has been an extremely high-scoring series so far with the first two games producing a whopping 30 runs. I expect more of the same on Sunday. The Nationals bats have come to life, pounding out 33 hits in the last two games. They're now averaging 5.9 runs per game on just shy of .300 hitting on the road this season. The Giants are averaging just under five runs per game at home. They've recorded double-digit hit totals in five of their last eight games overall. An often overlooked aspect of the game when it comes to playing MLB totals is defense. Both of these teams have struggled in that realm lately with the Nats' committing nine errors in their last five games including three last night and the Giants recording at least one error in seven consecutive games. There's nothing special about today's starting pitching matchup and we also have a good chance for some late scoring noting that the Nats' bullpen has posted an ugly 5.97 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in 34 2/3 innings of work away from home and the Giants 'pen having recorded a collective 3.51 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 41 innings pitched at home. Take the over (6*). | |||||||
05-01-22 | Warriors v. Grizzlies UNDER 220.5 | 117-116 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Memphis at 3:30 pm et on Sunday. Considering the pace the series was played at, I would have projected more than one 'under' result between the Warriors and Nuggets last round. That 'under' result finally came in the series finale - a game that totalled just 200 points. Golden State has now gotten off 86 or fewer field goal attempts in seven straight games. On the flip side, the Warriors are locked-in defensively, having limited six of their last nine opponents to 83 or fewer field goal attempts. In fact, going back to March 30th, Golden State has given up 40 or fewer made field goals in eight of 11 contests. The Grlzzlies knocked down more than 40 field goals just twice in their six-game series against the T'Wolves last round. The playoffs are obviously a different animal than the regular season and Memphis found that out as it got off 87 or fewer FG attempts in four of its six first round contests (it averages 94 FG attempts per game this season). However, the Grizzlies are also on a terrific defensive run right now, having held the T'Wolves to 38 or fewer made field goals in each of the last five games last round. Nine of Memphis' last 13 opponents have gotten off 86 or fewer FG attempts. Take the under (9*). | |||||||
05-01-22 | Seattle Kraken v. Jets -176 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Winnipeg over Seattle at 2 pm et on Sunday. I'll keep it simple with my analysis of this odd regular season finale in Winnipeg - a make-up game from earlier in the season. The Kraken won their home finale in shutout fashion against San Jose. Now they hit the road one more time, where they've gone a woeful 11-29, outscored by 0.8 goals on average this season. The Jets have had a disappointing season but do check in 22-18 on home ice, where they've outscored opponents by 0.6 goals on average. They also enter this game with a chance to wrap up the season on a four-game winning streak, giving them something to feel good about heading to the golf course. Take Winnipeg (5*). | |||||||
05-01-22 | Mariners v. Marlins UNDER 7 | 7-3 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and Miami at 1:40 pm et on Sunday. We saw a return to business as usual for the Marlins yesterday as they prevailed in another low-scoring affair. I expect more of the same on Sunday. Mariners starter Logan Gilbert has quietly been one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball through the first month of the season. He checks in sporting a 0.40 ERA and 0.85 WHIP through his first four starts, striking out 22 and walking only four in 22 1/3 innings along the way. For the Marlins, Sandy Alcantara has been terrific as well. He has recorded a 1.26 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in 14 1/3 innings pitched at home this season. Both bullpens have been reliable as well with the Mariners 'pen having recorded a 3.18 ERA and 1.06 WHIP on the road and the Marlins relief corps posting a 2.87 ERA and 1.18 WHIP at home. In fact, Miami has already recorded nine saves while blowing just one. Take the under (6*). | |||||||
05-01-22 | Twins v. Rays -145 | 9-3 | Loss | -145 | 3 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Minnesota at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. Big spot for the Rays here as they look to wrap up their homestand on a winning note before heading out west for a 10-game road trip (they won't play another home game until May 13th). Yesterday's 9-1 loss is the type of defeat that isn't all that difficult to bounce back from. Just ask the Twins, who dropped the opener of this series in lopsided fashion 6-1 before delivering yesterday's blowout. The Rays did successfully bounce back from their previous 'worst loss' of the season - a 13-2 setback on April 11th - scoring nine runs in a victory the next day. Josh Fleming gets the call for the Rays on Sunday. His lone previous start this season wasn't particularly good as he allowed three earned runs over 3 1/3 innings against the A's. He did strike out six and walk only one in that contest. I expect a better showing from him here, and it's certainly worth noting that the Rays bullpen has been terrific, posting a 2.99 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 102 1/3 innings this season. Josh Winder will make his first career start for the Twins. He isn't likely to work deep into the game and behind him is a Minnesota bullpen that has recorded a 4.26 ERA and 1.17 WHIP with just one save converted and one blown on the road this season. Despite yesterday's nine-run outburst, the Twins are still averaging only 3.4 runs per game and hitting .222 as a team on the road this season. Take Tampa Bay (5*). | |||||||
04-30-22 | Diamondbacks v. Cardinals -150 | 2-0 | Loss | -150 | 6 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis over Arizona at 2:15 pm et on Saturday. I actually liked the way last night's matchup set up for the underdog D'Backs but ultimately left them off the card. Here, I don't believe Arizona is set up favorably as it sends Merrill Kelly to the hill against Miles Mikolas. Kelly has pitched well through his first four starts this season. However, it is worth noting that his three most difficult opponents have all come at home (Padres, Astros and Dodgers). His lone road outing came against a struggling Nationals lineup (which admittedly did break out in San Francisco last night but had been slumping). The D'Backs rate out as having one of baseball's weaker bullpens, entering last night's game sporting a 5.52 ERA and 1.52 WHIP away from home this season. Miles Mikolas shook off a rough season debut to allow just one earned run over his last three starts, spanning 18 2/3 innings of work. The Cards bullpen entered last night's game sporting a collective 2.74 ERA and 1.11 WHIP this season with four converted saves and only one blown. Take St. Louis (6*). | |||||||
04-30-22 | SC Freiburg v. Hoffenheim OVER 2.75 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Hoffenheim and Freiburg at 12:30 pm et on Saturday. I'm expecting some offensive fireworks in this match and so are the oddsmakers with the total approaching three at most books. While I would still consider playing the 'over' at '3', I prefer to pay the extra juice to get it at 2.5 or at worst 2 3/4 here to ensure a 2-1 result cashes our ticket. Hoffenheim has incredibly gone 18 matches in this particular series without posting a clean sheet. With Freiburg currently scoring at will, the hosts will be hard-pressed to do so here as well. We've seen six of the last eight matches between these two squads go 'over' 2.5 goals. Freiburg has been somewhat forgiving defensively, noting that both teams have scored in four of its last five contests with all five of those matches going 'over' 2.5 goals. I'm confident we'll see Hoffenheim force the issue here as it sits six points clear of ninth-place Frankfurt and six points back of today's opponent, Freiburg, which sits three places ahead of it in the Bundesliga table - currently occupying one of the coveted top six spots. Of course, should Hoffenheim come out aggressively, that should only open the door for Freiburg to take advantage in transition. Take the over (6*). | |||||||
04-29-22 | Ducks v. Stars -220 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas over Anaheim at 8:35 pm et on Friday. The Stars inexplicably let one slip away in an overtime loss against the lowly Coyotes two nights ago, on home ice no less. With the first Wild Card spot hanging in the balance (that position avoids a first round date with the Avalanche) I look for Dallas to bounce back on Friday night. The Stars remain a terrific home team on the season, having gone 26-14 while averaging 3.2 goals per game and outscoring opponents by 0.4 goals on average in the host role. The Ducks meanwhile are coming off a lopsided win in San Jose but remain a woeful 14-26 away from home this season, outscored by 0.7 goals on average along the way. Note that you would have to go all the way back to February 19th and 22nd to find the last time Anaheim managed to win consecutive games. Here, we'll also note that the Ducks are 8-33 when seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 1.4 goals in that situation. Dallas on the other hand has averaged 3.8 goals per game and outscored opponents by 0.4 goals on average after losing four or five of its last six games this season (17-game sample size), which is the situation here. Take Dallas (5*). | |||||||
04-29-22 | Blackhawks v. Sabres -118 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Buffalo over Chicago at 7:05 pm et on Friday. I'm not sure you'll find a team less motivated across the league than the Blackhawks on Friday night. Chicago is at the end of yet another disappointing campaign but does enter Friday's season finale in Buffalo off consecutive wins. I don't need to tell you that a late April Friday trip to Buffalo likely has the 'Hawks thinking more about the golf course than proceedings on the ice. The Sabres meanwhile are off a shutout loss in Boston last night but had previously won four games in a row. They certainly played their best hockey down the stretch and check in 5-2 when coming off a loss by 4+ goals against a division opponent this season, as is the case here, and also 5-1 when following a loss by 5+ goals against any opponent over the same stretch. In the latter situation they've outscored opponents by an average margin of 1.6 goals. Chicago is just 3-12 when coming off two wins in its last three games this season, which is the situation here, outscored by 1.3 goals on average in that spot. Worse still, the 'Hawks check in 5-18 when coming off a game in which they scored 4+ goals this season, as is the case here. Take Buffalo (8*). | |||||||
04-29-22 | Padres v. Pirates OVER 7 | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
N.L. Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between San Diego and Pittsburgh at 6:35 pm et on Friday. The Padres are a terrific 'over' play right now for a few reasons. First and foremost, they're locked in at the plate, knocking out 8, 12, 8 and 11 hits over their last four games. But they're also giving up their share, with the opposition collecting 8, 8, 10 and 8 hits over that stretch. Finally, they're playing awful defensive. They've managed to rack up a whopping nine errors over their last four games. Here, they'll face a reeling Pirates squad that is also playing poor defense at the moment, with seven errors over their last five contests. The Buccos aren't hitting as well as the Padres right now, but they are just two games removed from a 13-hit, 8-run barrage against the Brewers. On the flip side, Pittsburgh has yielded its opponents 23, 10, 14, 4 and 9 hits over its last five games. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
04-28-22 | Diamondbacks v. Cardinals -165 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis over Arizona at 7:45 pm et on Thursday. Yesterday's come-from-behind win over the Mets was the type of victory the Cardinals can build off of and they're facing an ideal opponent to do just that in the D'Backs on Thursday. Arizona just took two of three games from the Dodgers but is in for a letdown here. Note that the Snakes are just 3-4 on the road this season, averaging 3.1 runs per game. In stark contrast, the Cards have averaged 5.3 runs per game at home. I like the advantages we have with the Cards in terms of starting and relief pitching here. Humberto Castellanos hasn't lasted beyond the fifth inning in either of his first two starts for the D'Backs this season and behind him is a bullpen that has posted a 5.76 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 25 innings pitched away from home. Meanwhile, Cards starter Dakota Hudson tossed 6 2/3 shutout innings last time out and the St. Louis' bullpen has recorded a 2.97 ERA and 1.17 WHIP at home this season. Take St. Louis (5*). | |||||||
04-28-22 | 76ers v. Raptors UNDER 211 | 132-97 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Toronto at 7 pm et on Thursday. While we have seen the total drop throughout this series, I'm not convinced enough of an adjustment has been made - even after four consecutive 'under' results. The 76ers have gotten off 81 or fewer field goal attempts in each of the last four contests, making good on 38 or less in all four of those games. Meanwhile, the Raptors posted a high-water mark with 42 made field goals in Game 5, but still scored just 103 points. Prior to that, the Raps had knocked down 38, 38 and 38 field goals over their last three games. Neither team has managed to get off 90+ field goal attempts in any game in this series and I don't see that changing with the stakes incredibly high on Thursday night in Toronto. Keep in mind, the Raptors have held opponents to 38-of-83 shooting on average here at home this season. Likewise, the 76ers have limited the opposition to fewer than 40 made field goals per contest away from home and average just 84 FG attempts per game themselves in enemy territory. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
04-28-22 | Capitals -130 v. Islanders | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -130 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
NHL Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington over New York at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Isles got the better of the Caps two nights ago in Washington, skating to a 4-1 win. While Washington's first round playoff matchup is set (it will face Florida), I do think the Caps have some motivation to snap their brief two-game skid before wrapping up the regular season against the Rangers tomorrow night. Here, we'll note that Washington is 28-11 after losing two of its last three games over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.9 goals in that situation. The Isles are just 9-16 after a win by 2+ goals this season, as is the case here, averaging just 2.5 goals and outscored by 0.4 goals on average in that spot. New York is just 13-23 when coming off a victory of any kind this season while the Caps are 25-14 on the road, outscoring opponents by 0.8 goals on average. Take Washington (10*). | |||||||
04-28-22 | Guardians +1.5 v. Angels | 1-4 | Loss | -140 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Thursday. This series hasn't gone well for the Guardians. In fact, the last week hasn't gone well for the Guardians as they've gone winless through six games in New York and Anaheim. I will back them here, however, as they check in 22-12 when coming off a loss by 4+ runs going back to last season, outscoring opponents by 1.6 runs on average in that spot. Also note that the Angels are 14-22 when coming off a victory by 4+ runs over the same stretch, outscored by 1.0 run on average in that situation. Cleveland averages 6.5 runs per game against left-handed starting pitching this season, which is what they'll be up against on Thursday as Reid Detmers gets the call for the Angels. Detmers faced Cleveland once last season and didn't make it through the fourth inning, allowing three earned runs on seven hits and three walks in an eventual 5-1 loss. Meanwhile, Guardians starter Cal Quantrill is off to a solid start this season having posted a 3.94 ERA and 1.19 WHIP through 16 innings of work. He faced the Angels once last season and that start was a good one as he tossed seven shutout innings in a 3-0 victory. While I gave the Guardians bullpen the edge entering this series, I'm willing to admit the two relief corps' are virtually a 'wash' at this point. I'm comfortable grabbing the insurance run with the Guardians at a reasonable price here. Take Cleveland +1.5 runs (5*). | |||||||
04-27-22 | Nuggets v. Warriors UNDER 226 | Top | 98-102 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Golden State at 10 pm et on Wednesday. All four games in this series have gone 'over' the total. The fact that Game 4 sailed 'over' the number by 20+ points has us working with a considerably higher total here. I believe it will prove too high. It's not as if the pace has really been there for such consistently high-scoring results in this series. In Game 4 for example, the Nuggets got off just 73 field goal attempts. That didn't matter though as they shot the lights out (56% from the field). In Game 3 the Warriors attempted just 74 field goals but they were also incredibly efficient, shooting 55% from the field. Here, I expect both teams to finally step up and play some defense as the Warriors look to close out the series while the Nuggets try to get proceedings back to Denver. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 23-9 with the Warriors playing at home in their second game in the last five days over the last three seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 219.3 points. The 'under' is also 65-46 with the Warriors coming off a loss over the last three seasons, with an average total of 220.1 points in that situation. Also note that Nuggets road games have been considerably lower scoring than their home games this season, totalling an average of just 219.7 points. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-27-22 | Guardians +1.5 v. Angels | 5-9 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Guardians are reeling right now, losers of five straight games including the first two in this series. They'll have arguably their best starter in the early going this season on the hill tonight though in Zach Plesac. He has posted a 1.53 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in three starts this season, working at least into the sixth inning in all three of those outings. His opposing starter will be Shohei Ohtani and as usual he appears to be overvalued here, noting that the Angels have actually lost two of his first three starts this season. Note that Ohtani faced the Guardians just once last season, his only previous start against them, with the Halos losing that game by a 3-2 score here in Anaheim. While the Angels bullpen has held up well lately, I'm still not buying its long-term sustainability, noting that it still owns a 5.27 ERA and 1.22 WHIP with four saves converted but also three blown here at home this season. For its part, the Guardians 'pen has yet to record a save on the road while blowing two opportunities, however that relief corps has recorded a collective 2.73 ERA and 1.06 WHIP over its last seven games and I am willing to buy in as far as it keeping this game tight at the very least on Wednesday. Here, we'll note that the Guardians are 21-8 after being held to one run or less in their previous game going back to last season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 2.3 runs. The Angels on the other hand are 3-14 when playing at home after allowing three runs or less in consecutive games over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here, outscored by 2.5 runs on average in that spot. Take Cleveland +1.5 runs (8*). | |||||||
04-27-22 | Flyers v. Jets -176 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Winnipeg over Philadelphia at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Jets returned home from a brutal late season road trip to defeat the Avalanche 4-1 on Sunday. Despite the down season, they're actually 20-18 on home ice, where they've outscored opponents by 0.5 goals on average. The Flyers meanwhile, check in a woeful 11-29 on the road, having been outscored by an average margin of 1.3 goals. After a brief two-game winning streak that included a victory over the rival Penguins on Sunday, Philadelphia dropped a 3-1 decision in Chicago on Monday. Here, we'll note that the Flyers are a woeful 2-13 when playing their third game in four nights this season, outscored by 1.7 goals on average in that spot. The Flyers did take the first meeting between these two teams this season by a 3-1 score in Philadelphia on February 1st. Note that the Jets are 17-9 when seeking revenge for a road loss by 2+ goals over the last three seasons, averaging 3.5 goals per game and outscoring opponents by 0.9 goals on average in that situation. Take Winnipeg (5*). | |||||||
04-27-22 | Mariners v. Rays -134 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Seattle at 6:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Rays dropped the opener of this series last night, falling behind big early and never really recovering. I look for them to answer back tonight. The Mariners have won a season-high four games in a row. In fact, they've lost just once in their last eight games. Interestingly, their lone loss over that stretch came with tonight's starter Marco Gonzalez on the hill. Gonzalez has made just one road start this season and it didn't go well. He was ripped for six hits and six runs, two of them earned, in just two innings in a 10-4 loss to the Twins. Note that while the M's have been winning, their bullpen remains a work-in-progress. They've converted three saves but have also blown three this season. Over its last seven games, the Mariners relief corps has posted a collective 3.86 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. On the flip side, the Rays bullpen has posted a 2.51 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over its last seven contests, converting a pair of saves without a blown save along the way. Drew Rasmussen will get the start for Tampa on Wednesday. He's made just one home start this season and pitched reasonably well, allowing two earned runs on three hits over four innings. Here we'll note that the Rays are an incredible 31-12 when playing at home as a favorite priced at -150 or less over the last 2+ seasons. Take Tampa Bay (6*). | |||||||
04-27-22 | Inter Milan v. Bologna +1.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 0 m | Show |
Soccer Game of the Week. My selection is on Bologna +1.5 goals over Inter Milan at 2:15 pm et on Wednesday. Inter Milan enters Wednesday's match in Bologna just two points back of AC Milan, which sits tops in the Serie A table. There's undoubtedly some pressure on Inter to collect all three points in this match and leapfrog Milan. It won't be easy, however. Bologna has gone undefeated across its last four matches and should be well aware of the path to success in this particular contest, having seen seven of its last eight matches stay 'under' 2.5 goals. Bologna also knows that it can find success against Inter. The most recent meeting came last September, with Inter winning by a lopsided 6-1 score. Prior to that, however, four of the last five matches between these two squads were decided by a single goal. Note that despite being decided underdogs, Bologna has failed to find the back of the net just once in the last five meetings. I'm anticipating a competitive affair on Wednesday. Take Bologna +1.5 goals (10*). | |||||||
04-26-22 | Guardians v. Angels OVER 8 | 1-4 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Tuesday. Off a 3-0 shutout loss to open this series last night I look for the Guardians bats to finally wake from their slumber against Patrick Sandoval and the Angels pitching staff on Tuesday. With that being said, I'm not convinced Cleveland can keep the Los Angeles bats at bay. Triston McKenzie will get the nod for the Guardians. He has yet to last five innings in a start this season, which isn't out of the ordinary as he generally puts a lot of runners on base due to his inconsistent command. McKenzie walked four over 4 1/3 innings against the White Sox last week. Behind McKenzie is a Guardians bullpen that has posted a 4.38 ERA and 1.21 WHIP with a pair of blown saves (and none converted) on the road this season. As I mentioned, Patrick Sandoval will start for Los Angeles. Like McKenzie, he also likes to put runners on base, or has a tendency to do so anyway, allowing seven hits while handing out five free passes in only eight innings pitched so far this season. Despite their recent struggles at the dish, the Guardians are still averaging 5.2 runs per game and hitting .261 as a team on the road this season. They faced Sandoval once last season, scoring two earned runs in four innings in a game that totalled 11 runs. Behind Sandoval is an Angels bullpen that much like last year, has struggled here at home, posting a collective 5.31 ERA and 1.23 WHIP with three saves converted and three blown. Take the over (7*). | |||||||
04-26-22 | Mets v. Cardinals +106 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
N.L. Game of the Month. My selection is on St. Louis over New York at 7:45 pm et on Tuesday. The Cardinals suffered an excruciating loss in the opener of this series last night with Nolan Arenado's ill-timed ninth inning throwing error (with two outs) ultimately leading to a 5-2 loss. I do expect them to bounce back on Tuesday as they halt their brief two-game losing streak. The Mets have won two games in a row and are off to a 3-1 start to their current road trip. Keep in mind, they're just 20-31 when coming off consecutive wins going back to last season, outscored by 0.6 runs on average in that situation. Chris Bassitt gets the start for New York. He was terrific in his first two starts this season but those came against the struggling Nationals and D'Backs. In his most recent outing he was tagged for five earned runs over six innings against the Giants. Note that the Mets bullpen has struggled on the road this season, recording a collective 4.21 ERA and 1.33 WHIP with three converted saves to go along with three blown. Jordan Hicks gets another turn in the rotation for the Cardinals. He gave up one earned runs in a short three-inning outing against the Marlins last week. He's unlikely to work deep into this game either but that's fine as the Cards 'pen has posted a 3.42 ERA and 0.97 WHIP over their last seven games. While St. Louis produced only two runs last night that wasn't unexpected as it was up against one of the best pitchers in baseball in Max Scherzer. Note that the Cards are still averaging an impressive 5.4 runs per contest at home this season. Take St. Louis (10*). | |||||||
04-26-22 | Marlins v. Nationals +1.5 | 5-2 | Loss | -147 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington +1.5 runs over Miami at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Marlins are coming off an impressive series win in Atlanta over the weekend. They probably would have liked to have gotten right back out there yesterday but instead had a day off before opening this series in Washington. The Nationals, meanwhile, likely welcomed the off day following a series sweep at the hands of the Giants, at home no less. The Nats have now lost five games in a row but I look for them to punch back on Tuesday. Josiah Gray gets the start for Washington. He's arguably been their best starter so far this season, particularly over his last two outings as he allowed just four hits and one earned run in 10 1/3 innings in victories over the Braves and D'Backs. He turned in two solid outings against the Marlins last season, allowing four earned runs in 12 innings with the Nats' going 2-0 when factoring in the +1.5 run-line. Sandy Alcantara has also pitched well for Miami. However, he's been much better in his two home outings than he was in his lone trip to the hill on the road. The Marlins have won just twice in his eight career starts against Washington. We'll use the +1.5 run-line to our advantage here, noting that Miami is averaging only 3.5 runs per game on the road this season. If there's one area where the Nats' have an advantage and should help them keep this one tight at the very least, it's the bullpen. Washington's 'pen has posted a 2.67 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over its last seven games. The Nats' relief corps has recorded two saves with none blown at home this season. Take Washington +1.5 runs (6*). | |||||||
04-26-22 | Blue Jackets v. Lightning UNDER 7 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
NHL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Columbus and Tampa Bay at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. Now that we've got the starting goaltender matchup we wanted, we'll step in with a play on the 'under' in Tampa on Tuesday. The Lightning are coming off six straight 'over' results. They've scored a whopping 22 goals over their last three games alone - their highest such scoring run of the season. I expect them to 'manage' this game, however, noting that they recently suffered a couple of late season injury scares with Anthony Cirelli and Mikhail Sergachev (Cirelli is expected back in the lineup on Tuesday while Sergachev remains questionable) and will close out the season with games on consecutive nights beginning on Thursday in Columbus. I mentioned the goaltending matchup in this one - it's certainly notable when you consider how well Elvis Merzlikins has been playing for the Blue Jackets. He has posted a .937 save percentage over his last four starts with the 'under' cashing in three of those four games. Also note that the 'under' is 4-1 in his five career starts against the Lightning. Columbus scored five goals in its most recent game - a 5-2 victory over Edmonton on Friday. Prior to that the Jackets had scored just eight goals over their last four games combined. The 'under' checks in 10-2 with the Jackets playing on the road off a win by 3+ goals over the last three seasons, resulting in an average total of 4.5 goals. While the lone previous matchup between these two teams this season totalled nine goals, that came in Columbus. The two teams have met four times in Tampa going back to the start of last season with those contests reaching just 4, 5, 4 and 7 goals. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-26-22 | Hawks v. Heat -7 | Top | 94-97 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
NBA First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami minus the points over Atlanta at 7 pm et on Tuesday. | |||||||
04-25-22 | Celtics v. Nets OVER 219.5 | Top | 116-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Brooklyn at 7 pm et on Monday. We missed with the 'over' in Game 3 of this series on Saturday. That game totalled 212 points which was actually a fairly flattering number given the two teams combined to make just 26 free throws (they average a combined 35 made free throws per game this season) and Brooklyn was held to fewer than 40 made field goals for the second straight contest. Note that two straight games knocking down less than 40 field goals matches the Nets longest such streak this season. It has happened four times previously, with the 'over' going a perfect 4-0 in their next game. I expect a similar outcome here. Brooklyn has been held to 78 or fewer field goal attempts in all three games in this series. If the Nets are finally going to be able to push the pace you figure it happens here as they face elimination and perhaps the Celtics let their guard down defensively just enough with a comfortable 3-0 series lead. Note that the Nets got off 99 and 94 field goal attempts in their two regular season matchups against the Celtics on this floor. There's little reason to expect any sort of letdown from the Celtics offense here. They're on an incredible run at that end of the floor, making good on 45, 56, 43, 43, 54, 42, 39 and 42 made field goals over their last eight games. In the lone outlier - Game 2 of this series - they still managed to score 114 points in a game that would have eclipsed the total we're working with tonight. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
04-25-22 | Rockies v. Phillies -182 | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over Colorado at 6:45 pm et on Monday. The Rockies are coming off consecutive victories in Detroit, which came on the heels of a 13-0 drubbing in the opener of that series. We've surprisingly seen the Rockies win four of their first five road games so far this season - notable when you consider they're 10-32 in road games in the first half of the season going back to last year. I expect them to hit a speedbump in Philadelphia on Monday. The Phillies just wrapped up a disappointing series loss at home against the Brewers. Remember, last week they also dropped two of three games against these same Rockies in Colorado. Still, I believe the steep price is warranted here. Kyle Gibson will take the ball for Philadelphia. Including a victory over the A's earlier this season, Gibson has posted a 12-2 team record in 14 home starts going back to the start of last year. He faced the Rockies last week and despite the Phils falling short by a 6-5 score, Gibson didn't pitch all that poorly, allowing only three earned runs in six innings - not bad for a start at hitter-friendly Coors Field. Here, Gibson will get the opportunity to face the Rockies at home for the first time in his career. Kyle Freeland will counter for Colorado. He opposed Gibson last week and allowed only two earned runs over five innings in that 6-5 victory. While he's had success facing the Phils at home over the course of his career (3-0 team record in three starts), he's gone winless in a pair of previous outings here in Philadelphia, including a 6-1 defeat last season in which he allowed four earned runs over six frames. Even if Freeland pitches well here, there's no guarantee that the Rockies bullpen can hold up its end of the bargain. The Colorado 'pen has posted an ugly 7.98 ERA and 1.86 WHIP over its last seven games. The Rockies have already blown three saves this season. On the flip side, the Phillies 'pen has posted a less than impressive 5.40 ERA but a more respectable 1.29 WHIP over its last seven games. Note that the Phils relief corps has combined to record a 3.93 ERA and 1.04 WHIP with three converted saves and none blown at home this season. Take Philadelphia (4*). | |||||||
04-25-22 | Juventus v. Sassuolo Calcio UNDER 3 | Top | 2-1 | Push | 0 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
Soccer Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Sassuolo and Juventus at 2:45 pm et on Monday. I can't help but feel that both sides would be satisfied with a low-scoring draw in this Monday Serie A matchup. Juventus sits fairly comfortable inside the top four in the Serie A table, five points ahead of fifth-place Roma with this being its match-in-hand. Sassuolo is in no man's land in some sense, sitting 10th in the table, a whopping 21 points north of relegation but 10 points outside the coveted top six spots. We're dealing with a relatively high posted total here due largely to the fact that each of the last 10 meetings in this series has gone 'over' 2.5 goals. With that being said, Juventus has seen four of its last five matches overall stay 'under' 2.5 goals. Sassuolo will likely take on a rather defensive shape here as it looks to break a streak of seven consecutive matches allowing at least one goal. However, I also expect Juventus to take a rather cautious approach as it has yielded at least a goal in six consecutive matches against Sassuolo and will be looking to keep its three match undefeated streak intact. While a 'push' is always a fairly probable outcome when dealing with 'on the nose' totals such as this one (the standard total is set at 3.0 at the time of writing), I believe there's a good chance we see a 1-0, 1-1 or 2-0 outcome here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-24-22 | Wild v. Predators UNDER 6.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
NHL Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Nashville at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring games. I look for a different story to unfold on Sunday, however. Minnesota rolled to a 6-3 win over the expansion Kraken on Friday night. Seattle seemingly woke a sleeping giant in that contest, jumping out to an early 2-0 lead before the Wild exploded for six goals. That was Minnesota's second straight game scoring six goals. Note, however, that both of those contests came at home. The Wild have scored three goals or less in four of their last five road games. They've yet to score more than two goals in a game against the Predators this season, losing all three previous matchups. Minnesota is currently missing a number of key contributors due to injury, including Matt Dumba, Mats Zuccarello, Marcus Foligno and Jordan Greenway. The Preds will be looking to bounce back from a 6-2 drubbing in Tampa last night. The good news is, Nashville has been much better defensively here at home, allowing just 2.6 goals per game this season. Note that the Wild average just 2.8 goals per game with an average total of 5.0 goals when playing on the road after scoring 4+ goals in consecutive games this season, as is the case here. The 'under' has cashed at a 10-3 clip in that situation. Similarly, the 'under' is 17-7 with the Wild playing on the road after consecutive games totalling 7+ goals, which is also the situation here, leading to an average total of 5.5 goals in that spot. Finally, I'll point out that the 'under' has cashed in 21 of the last 35 meetings here in Music City, with an average total of just 5.1 goals. Take the under (10*). |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ricky Tran | $756 |
ProSportsPicks | $632 |
Joseph D'Amico | $510 |
Joey Tron | $450 |
Tom Macrina | $399 |
Nick Parsons | $344 |
Sean Murphy | $306 |
Jack Jones | $303 |
William Burns | $233 |
Dan Kaiser | $220 |