Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
02-19-21 | IUPU-Indianapolis v. Youngstown State -4.5 | Top | 72-70 | Loss | -112 | 9 h 0 m | Show |
Horizon League Game of the Month. My selection is on Youngstown State minus the points over IUPUI at 5 pm et on Friday. IUPUI caught Illinois-Chicago in a favorable back-to-back spot last weekend and absolutely knocked it out of the park, winning both games by a combined 27-point margin. While the Jaguars have certainly been playing well, I believe they're in a tough spot here on the road against a surging Youngstown State squad that has owned this series on Friday. Youngstown State has taken 11 of the last 12 meetings in this series including each of the last six ATS. The Penguins roll into this game off five straight wins. They've been terrific since the middle of January. Even in their four losses since January 16th they've been right there, losing each of those contests by seven points or less. Note that IUPUI hasn't fared well off outright upset wins over the last three seasons, going 3-11 ATS, losing those games by an average margin of nearly nine points. The Jaguars are a long-term loser when going on the road following two or more consecutive victories, posting an 8-23 ATS mark in that situation. They're also a woeful 13-29 ATS after scoring 85 points or more in their most recent game, as is the case here. Take Youngstown State (10*). | |||||||
02-18-21 | Heat -1 v. Kings | Top | 118-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Miami minus the points over Sacramento at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. Bettors have seemingly lost faith in the Heat, and perhaps for good reason as they've dropped the cash in three straight games. They've generally been a terrific bounce-back team in recent years, however, and I see this as a fine 'get right' spot against a reeling Kings squad. Note that Miami is 30-18 ATS after a loss over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 4.5 points in those games. They've also gotten stronger the longer road trips go on, posting a 37-18 ATS mark in road games after playing at least four straight games away from home. The Kings have dropped four games in a row, both SU and ATS, and check in just 7-10 SU at home this season. The Heat need this win and I'm confident they'll get it. Take Miami (10*). | |||||||
02-18-21 | Kings v. Coyotes UNDER 5.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Arizona at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'under' in the Kings 4-0 win over the Wild two nights ago and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here on Thursday. Note that the 'under' is 13-1 when the Kings come off a home win by three goals or more over the last three seasons with those games averaging just 4.5 total goals. When you consider only road games in that particular situation, the 'under' has gone 8-1 and those games totaled an average of only four goals. While the Coyotes have posted a 4-4-1 o/u record at home this season, games here in Glendale are averaging just 4.8 total goals. Also note that six of the last seven meetings in this series have stayed 'under' the total. We'll stick with the trends here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
02-18-21 | San Diego v. Santa Clara -6.5 | Top | 71-60 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
WCC Game of the Year. My selection is on Santa Clara minus the points over San Diego at 9 pm et on Thursday. San Diego has just two road wins this season and those came against 3-13 Cal Poly and 6-13 Portland. Now the Toreros are in a tough spot having not played since January 28th due to Covid protocols. Meanwhile, Santa Clara will be eager to get right back on the floor after suffering a narrow three-point home loss against 10-6 Loyola Marymount on Tuesday night. Prior to that game the Broncos had been dealing with Covid issues of their own, off since January 23rd. Perhaps the low-grade performance was to be expected in their first game back. These two teams actually met back on January 21st in San Diego with Santa Clara pulling out a six-point win despite shooting just 38% from the field and 62% from the free throw line. Look for a sharper effort from the Broncos here. Take Santa Clara (10*). | |||||||
02-17-21 | Blazers v. Pelicans -3 | Top | 126-124 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 7 m | Show |
NBA Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Portland at 9:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Pelicans 'got right' with a win in Memphis last night and we were along for the ride, backing them in that victory. Now New Orleans makes the quick trip home to host the Blazers on Wednesday night and I like the Pelicans to deliver the cash again. For Portland, this will be its third game in four nights, in three different cities. The Blazers have undoubtedly been playing well but this might be the spot where tired legs catch up with them. New Orleans ran into a flat spot in its schedule last weekend, culminating with a double-digit loss in Detroit on Sunday night. I liked the way it bounced back last night in Memphis and expect to see some carry-over from that performance here. The Pels' are quite simply catching the Blazers in the right place at the right time as far as I'm concerned. Take New Orleans (10*). | |||||||
02-17-21 | South Carolina +11.5 v. Tennessee | 73-93 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on South Carolina plus the points over Tennessee at 9 pm et on Wednesday. I like the Gamecocks catching all of those points on the road against the Vols on Wednesday night. South Carolina has lost three games in a row but only one of those losses came in blowout fashion. Note that the last time the Gamecocks lost three games in a row they followed it up with a 24-point rout of Georgia. South Carolina is a long-term winner as a double-digit road underdog, having gone 45-26 ATS in that situation. Meanwhile, Tennessee checks in 3-9 ATS in SEC play this season and is a miserable 10-21 ATS after winning four or five of its last six games over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of just over four points in that situation. This will be the first meeting between these two teams this season after they split a pair of matchups last season, with those two games decided by a grand total of three points. Take South Carolina (10*). | |||||||
02-17-21 | Duke v. Wake Forest +6 | 84-60 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Wake Forest plus the points over Duke at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday. We missed the mark fading Duke on the road against N.C. State on Saturday as the Blue Devils got off to a hot start and never looked back in a convincing victory. Wake Forest is coming off a 92-85 loss on the road against Florida State but there was no shame in that defeat as the Seminoles are an elite team that just manhandled Virginia on Monday night. The Demon Deacons will certainly be happy to be back home after three straight games on the road, noting they've won their last two contests here at home. There's no longer any sort of intimidation factor at play when it comes to the Blue Devils, who are mired in a disappointing campaign. Look for Wake to put up a fight here. Take Wake Forest (10*). | |||||||
02-17-21 | Drake v. Northern Iowa +6 | Top | 77-69 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
CBB Revenge Game of the Year. My selection is on Northern Iowa plus the points over Drake at 8 pm et on Wednesday. I really like the way this one sets up for Northern Iowa as it looks to earn some revenge in short order after suffering a 21-point blowout defeat on the road against Drake one week ago tonight. Northern Iowa is mired in a disappointing season overall but has held its own here at home where it has gone 6-4 straight-up. The Panthers are coming off a confidence-boosting 14-point win over Valpo last time out and catch Drake in a favorable spot here, with the Bulldogs coming off a tough 1-1 split against Loyola-Chicago over the weekend. Drake got off to a tremendous start this season but has cooled off lately, going 3-4 ATS over its last seven games, including two SU victories where it failed to cover the spread. This isn't a difficult game for Northern Iowa to get up for and it generally rises to the occasion in this matchup at home, where it has taken the last two meetings and owns a 19-3 SU record against Drake in the last 22 matchups on this floor. In what has the potential to be a game played in the 60's, I'm comfortable grabbing the generous helping of points with the underdog Panthers. Take Northern Iowa (10*). | |||||||
02-17-21 | Blackhawks v. Red Wings UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
NHL Central Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Detroit at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. These two teams skated to a low-scoring game two nights ago with the Blackhawks emerging victorious by a 2-1 score in overtime. I believe we're in for another low-scoring contest on Wednesday as Chicago aims for its third straight win. Note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 6-0 when the Blackhawks have won two of their last three games this season, with those games averaging just four total goals. The 'under' is also a perfect 6-0 when the Red Wings follow a one-goal home loss over the last two seasons, with those contests averaging just 4.1 total goals. Detroit has been one of the league's best 'under' bets this season and I look for that trend to continue tonight. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
02-16-21 | Wild v. Kings UNDER 5.5 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 16 h 58 m | Show |
NHL Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. With the Kings coming off four straight 'over' results, I look for things to return to 'normal' on Tuesday night with a low-scoring contest in Los Angeles. Note that the Kings fall into a 12-1 'under' situation here where they come off a win by three goals or more. That situation has produced games averaging just 4.6 total goals over the last three seasons. Factor in the fact that the blowout win came against a division opponent and that scoring average in the next game drops to just 4.3 goals. Note that the Wild have gone 3-2 on the road this season with those games totaling an average of just 4.6 goals. This will be Minnesota's first game in two weeks due to Covid protocols. We saw what happened when the Avalanche returned to the ice following a long layoff on Sunday as they were shutout 1-0 in Las Vegas. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
02-16-21 | Avalanche -104 v. Golden Knights | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 16 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado over Vegas at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. I like the bounce-back spot for the Avalanche here as they look to respond following a 1-0 shutout loss in their first game back following an extended layoff on Sunday. Colorado catches Vegas in a favorable situation with the Golden Knights having gone 8-12 after having won four or five of their last six games over the last two seasons, as is the case here. The Knights were outscored by an average margin of 0.7 goals in those contests. The Avs are one of the few teams that have held their own against Vegas in recent years, splitting the last 10 meetings in this series, including two wins at T-Mobile Arena last season. Take Colorado (10*). | |||||||
02-16-21 | Pelicans +1 v. Grizzlies | Top | 144-113 | Win | 100 | 23 h 32 m | Show |
NBA Southwest Division Game of the Year. My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Memphis at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. In our fade of the Pelicans on Sunday night in Detroit we made note of the fact that it would be a very difficult matchup to get up for. That turned out to be exactly the case as New Orleans was flat and ultimately suffered an 11-point loss. This is a different story altogether as the Pelicans always seem to get up for the Grizzlies with the Zion vs. Ja matchup taking center stage. Note that New Orleans has won four straight meetings in this series, most recently grabbing a 118-109 decision on February 6th. Also note that Stan Van Gundy-coached teams have gone 117-84 ATS off a double-digit loss and 95-67 ATS after losing three of their last four games, as is the case here with the Pelicans. While New Orleans hasn't been a good road team this season, going 4-10 SU, the Grizzlies haven't been much better at home, going 4-7 SU. I believe a letdown is in order for the Grizz after they won by 14 points in Sacramento on Sunday. Take New Orleans (10*). | |||||||
02-16-21 | Florida +5 v. Arkansas | Top | 64-75 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
CBB Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Florida plus the points over Arkansas at 7 pm et on Tuesday. With the Gators coming off an upset loss at home against South Carolina and Arkansas off an upset win of its own at Missouri, I can understand where the oddsmakers are coming from installing Florida as an underdog in this matchup. That doesn't mean I agree with the logic, however. Note that Arkansas is a miserable 23-44 ATS after an outright underdog win and also 5-14 ATS after covering the spread in four or five of their last six contests, as is the case here, over the last three seasons. Florida, meanwhile, has gone 17-7 ATS after dropping the cash in two of its last three games over the last three seasons, winning those games by an average margin of nearly 12 points. Florida has won three straight meetings with Arkansas and is 25-7 against the Razorbacks in the last 32 matchups. Take Florida (10*). | |||||||
02-15-21 | Jets v. Oilers -129 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -129 | 23 h 7 m | Show |
NHL North Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Edmonton over Winnipeg at 9:05 pm et on Monday. I expect the Jets to suffer a hangover of sorts following Saturday's last-second loss against the lowly Senators on home ice. Winnipeg has to be doubting itself a bit right now having dropped four of its last seven games overall. Meanwhile, the Oilers are back home off of three consecutive wins, outscoring the opposition 9-3 over that stretch. They've been idle since Thursday's 3-0 victory in Montreal. Look for the Oil to defend home ice in this one. Take Edmonton (10*). | |||||||
02-15-21 | Hawks -1.5 v. Knicks | Top | 112-123 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over New York at 7:35 pm et on Monday. The Knicks have caught favorable matchups in their last two games, going on the road against a Bradley Beal-less Wizards squad on Friday before hosting a struggling Rockets team on Saturday. This should be a different story on Monday as Atlanta will be highly-motivated off back-to-back losses and with revenge in mind after the Knicks won by a 113-108 score in Atlanta back on January 4th (we won with New York in that game). Note that Tom Thibodeau-coached teams (the Knicks in this case) have gone 5-18 ATS in home games following a 20+ point win at home over the course of his career. Take Atlanta (10*). | |||||||
02-15-21 | Virginia v. Florida State -1.5 | 60-81 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Florida State minus the points over Virginia at 7 pm et on Monday. This is an easy game for the Seminoles to get up for as they host the most recent national champs in Virginia. The Cavaliers are coming off a 60-48 win over North Carolina on Saturday night but will face a much tougher challenge here. There's no intimidation factor at play with Florida State having taken two of the last three meetings in this series. Note that Virginia is 1-9 ATS off a double-digit home win over the last two seasons. Florida State is 11-3 ATS at home against ACC opponents over the last two seasons. Take Florida State (10*). | |||||||
02-14-21 | Lakers -2.5 v. Nuggets | 105-122 | Loss | -112 | 14 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Denver at 10:05 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Lakers in Friday's 10-point win over the Grizzlies and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with them here. Los Angeles got the wake-up call it needed in the first quarter against Memphis on Friday, falling behind 20-2 out of the gates. From the second quarter on, it did what great teams do, reaching to another gear and ultimately winning the game comfortably. There's no question, we've seen the Lakers scuffing their heels lately. Remember, earlier in the week the undermanned Thunder took them to overtime in consecutive games, in Los Angeles no less. Here, I look for L.A. to rise to the occasion against a quality opponent in Denver. Note that the Lakers have taken seven of eight meetings with the Nuggets, including a 4-1 playoff series win last Summer, since the start of 2020. The Lakers have thrived on heading out on the road recently, going 14-3 ATS in their first game of a road trip over the last two seasons, winning those games by an average margin of 12 points. The Nuggets are a miserable 11-24 ATS following back-to-back wins over the last two seasons. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
02-14-21 | Indiana State v. Evansville +3 | Top | 76-70 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 21 m | Show |
CBB Missouri Valley Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Evansville plus the points over Indiana State at 4 pm et on Sunday. I won't hesitate to fade Indiana State as a road favorite here noting that the Sycamores only road wins this season have come against 5-14 Illinois State and 6-13 Northern Iowa. Indiana State had its seven-game winning streak snapped in a 70-67 loss at Northern Iowa last Sunday. I can't help but think the Sycamores would have liked to get right back on the floor rather than wait a week before this game. Note that Indiana State is 0-7 ATS when playing on the road off a road loss over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 15 points in those games. Meanwhile, Evansville has reeled off four straight ATS wins and checks in as a solid momentum play having gone 8-2 ATS following an ATS victory this season. The Purple Aces are one of the nation's best three-point shooting teams, ranking 18th in made three-pointers per game and T48th in three-point percentage. That sets them up well as Indiana State is 9-25 ATS in road games against opponents that average eight or more made threes per game, outscored by nearly 12 points per contest in that situation. Take Evansville (10*). | |||||||
02-14-21 | Capitals +114 v. Penguins | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 15 m | Show |
NHL East Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Washington over Pittsburgh at 3:05 pm et on Sunday. The Capitals will be playing with double-revenge on Sunday after dropping back-to-back games in Pittsburgh earlier this season. Of course, both of those games could have gone either way. Note that Washington is 60-39 on the road revenging a road loss, outscoring the opposition by 0.4 goals per game in that situation. Even against a rival such as the Caps, I still see this as a letdown spot for the Penguins after they secured a come-from-behind shootout win over the Islanders last time out. That victory snapped a two-game skid but Pittsburgh has still just won twice in its last six contests. Washington is coming off three straight losses but hasn't played since February 7th due to Covid protocols involving their opponents, the Flyers and Sabres. Take Washington (10*). | |||||||
02-14-21 | Hofstra +2 v. James Madison | Top | 70-74 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 26 m | Show |
CAA Game of the Month. My selection is on Hofstra plus the points over James Madison at 2 pm et on Sunday. I really like the way this one sets up as a quick revenge spot for Hofstra after suffering a narrow 93-89 loss against the Dukes yesterday. Keep in mind, Hofstra has a number of quality wins away from home this season, including over 10-5 Monmouth and 10-4 Richmond. Despite yesterday's loss, the Pride are still 4-2 in their last six meetings with James Madison. They've gone an impressive 24-11 ATS after scoring 80 points or more in a game over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, James Madison has gone 5-12 ATS in the same situation over the last three seasons. The Dukes have now grabbed the cash in six straight games following yesterday's win but should be in tough on Sunday, noting that Hofstra hasn't dropped the cash in consecutive games since an extended ATS losing streak in the first couple of weeks of January. Take Hofstra (10*). | |||||||
02-14-21 | Michigan v. Wisconsin OVER 131.5 | 67-59 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Michigan and Wisconsin at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'under' in Wisconsin's last game - a double-digit win over Nebraska earlier this week. Now the value has swung the other way as I look for this one to find its way 'over' the total. Note that the 'over' is 8-1 when Wisconsin follows a double-digit win over a conference opponent over the last two seasons with those games totaling an average of 137.5 points. The 'over' is also 8-2 after a game in which the Badgers cover the spread this season with those contests reaching an average of 137.6 points. Michigan is averaging just shy of 80 points per game against opponents that average 71.3 ppg this season. After facing Penn State, Illinois and Nebraska over their last three games, the Badgers will obviously be facing a tougher challenge against the Michigan offense here. Meanwhile, the Wolverines haven't played since January 22nd and I can't imagine they bring peak defensive intensity in this one. Wisconsin is averaging just shy of 75 ppg at home this season. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
02-13-21 | Red Wings v. Predators -155 | 4-2 | Loss | -155 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Nashville over Detroit at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. We're being asked to lay a fairly steep price with the Predators here considering they're just 6-8 on the season. I actually feel the line could be much higher, however. Detroit really is that bad. The Red Wings have managed just one win in their last 11 games. They're set up poorly here, noting they've gone a dreadful 1-17 on the moneyline when playing on the road off a road loss over the last two seasons and they've been outscored by 2.2 goals per game in those contests. Noting their streaky nature, the Wings have gone 1-23 on the moneyline after losing six or seven of their last eight games (as is the case here) over the last two seasons. In those games they've been outscored by an average margin of 2.4 goals. The Preds are in a far more favorable situation having gone 185-136 on the monyeline after losing three of their last four games. Look for the Preds to continue to take their frustrations out on the lowly Wings here. Take Nashville (10*). | |||||||
02-13-21 | Pacers v. Hawks UNDER 226.5 | Top | 125-113 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Atlanta at 7:35 pm et on Saturday. The Pacers are coming off four consecutive 'under' results and I look for more of the same on Saturday as they head to Atlanta to face the reeling Hawks. Note that the 'under' has cashed at a 25-12 clip when Indiana comes off three or more straight 'unders' over the last three seasons with those games totaling an average of just over 210 points - a very low total by today's NBA standards. Also note that the 'under' is 55-37 when the Pacers follow up an ATS win over the last three seasons, with those games reaching an average of 214 points - well south of tonight's posted total. The Hawks haven't been a terrible defensive team this season. Quite the opposite, in fact. Atlanta is allowing 111.4 points per game against opponents that average 112.7 ppg. Here at home, it is giving up 110 ppg on the season. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
02-13-21 | North Carolina v. Virginia UNDER 129.5 | Top | 48-60 | Win | 100 | 20 h 54 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between North Carolina and Virginia at 6 pm et on Saturday. This game will feature a contrast in styles but I expect Virginia to dictate the pace at home as usual, leading to a relatively low-scoring game. The 'under' is a perfect 7-0 in North Carolina's last seven games in the current o/u range, with those games totaling an average of just 117.3 points. Also note that Virginia has posted a 32-54 o/u mark when coming off a game as a road favorite, with those games averaging around 126 total points. While Virginia is certainly known for its defense and that has held true this season as it has given up just north of 59 points per game against opponents that average 73.5 ppg, North Carolina has also fared well defensively, giving up just over 70 ppg against opponents that average over 73 ppg. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
02-13-21 | Villanova v. Creighton +3 | Top | 70-86 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
CBB Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Creighton plus the points over Villanova at 5 pm et on Saturday. With Villanova coming off a 32-point dismantling of Marquette on Wednesday. That marked the Wildcats second straight ATS win as a double-digit favorite. Here, they're obviously laying far fewer points but draw a tough matchup against Creighton. The Blue Jays have also won back-to-back games, including a 15-point win on the road against Georgetown earlier this week. Note that the Jays are 20-10 ATS after winning four or five of their last six games over the last two seasons, winning those games by an average of nearly nine points. They're also 10-2 ATS after giving up 60 points or less in a game over their last three seasons, winning those games by an average margin of 11 points. There's no intimidation factor at play here as Creighton took the last meeting in the series by 15 points last February. While Villanova will obviously be looking for revenge here, that's always a better proposition playing at home. We'll grab the points but hopefully won't need them. Take Creighton (10*). | |||||||
02-13-21 | Duke v. NC State +3.5 | 69-53 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on N.C. State plus the points over Duke at 4 pm et on Saturday. Duke has yet to win a game this month, suffering three straight losses to fall under the .500 mark on the season. Note the Blue Devils have just one road win of note this season, that coming against 8-10 Notre Dame - the same Irish squad that Duke just lost to last time out. N.C. State is coming off a disappointing 77-68 home loss against Syracuse. That actually sets the Wolfpack up well in this one as they're 45-26 ATS the last 71 times they've followed an outright loss as a favorite, outscoring opponents by an average margin of nearly five points per game in that situation. Meanwhile, Duke is 5-16 ATS after scoring 80 points or more in their last game, as is the case here. Take N.C. State (10*). | |||||||
02-13-21 | Arkansas v. Missouri -145 | 86-81 | Loss | -145 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Missouri (moneyline) over Arkansas at 4 pm et on Saturday. We missed the early value with this one priced closer to a pk'em so will go with the moneyline rather than the spread here as the price still warrants such a play. We actually cashed a ticket fading Missouri in its last game - a blowout loss at Ole Miss earlier this week. That letdown was to be expected as the Tigers were coming off three straight home wins in SEC play. Here, I'm confident we'll see the Tigers get back up for the Razorbacks. Arkansas will be looking for revenge after suffering a blowout loss at home against Missouri back in January. However, it's worth noting that the Hogs are a miserable 16-31 ATS on the road revenging a double-digit loss, losing those games by an average margin of nearly nine points. Arkansas is also a poor 2-9 ATS after winning ATS in four or five of its last six games over the last two seasons. Take Missouri moneyline (9*). | |||||||
02-13-21 | 76ers v. Suns UNDER 225.5 | 111-120 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Phoenix at 3:05 pm et on Saturday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in the 76ers loss against the Blazers on Thursday but did cash with Portland. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the 'under' again as Philadelphia continues its road trip with an early start matchup in Phoenix. The Suns, of course, have been one of the league's better 'under' bets this season but come into this game off of consecutive 'over' results. Keep in mind, games involving the Suns have totaled an average of just over 218 points this season. This play is supported by a trend that has seen the 'under' cash at a 41-14 clip over the last five seasons when the Suns have won four or more games in a row and face a quality opponent. Also note that the 76ers are allowing just over 109 points per game when coming off a road loss over the last two seasons. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
02-12-21 | Grizzlies v. Lakers -7.5 | Top | 105-115 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
NBA Non-Division Game of the week. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Memphis at 10:05 pm et on Friday. This is an excellent spot to back the Lakers at a reasonably short number coming off consecutive overtime wins over the Thunder and three straight non-ATS covers. Memphis just snapped a four-game losing streak with a resounding 130-114 win over Charlotte on Wednesday but now heads to Los Angeles where it has lost its last two meetings with the Lakers by 29 and 12 points. Note that Memphis is dealing with a number of key absences, but perhaps one is flying under the radar with Desmond Bane expected to miss due to personal reasons. He has been giving the Grizzlies around 25 productive minutes per game off the bench and his absence will be felt here. Of course, there's uncertainty around Lakers star Anthony Davis' availability but that has been more than factored into this price in my opinion. Note that the Lakers have owned the Southwest Division over the last two seasons, going 21-10 ATS. They swept consecutive games in Memphis back in early January. We actually won with the Grizzlies in the second game of that set but that was after the Lakers took the first game by 14 points. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
02-12-21 | Blues -126 v. Coyotes | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 24 h 11 m | Show |
NHL Revenge Game of the Year. My selection is on St. Louis over Arizona at 9:05 pm et on Friday. We get to back the Blues at a discount as the scene shifts to Arizona for yet another matchup between these two teams on Friday night. Of course, home ice advantage means little this season with no fans in the stands. That was clearly evident over the last four games as the Coyotes took three of four meetings in St. Louis. That sets the Blues up well here, noting that they're a highly profitable 8-2 on the road when playing with triple revenge over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 3-1.6 in those contests. Meanwhile, Arizona is 1-6 after having won four or five of its last six games over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 0.9 goals in those games. The 'Yotes are also a miserable 2-13 following a one-goal victory over the last two years, losing those games by an average margin of 3.6-2.3. Take St. Louis (10*). | |||||||
02-12-21 | Detroit v. Cleveland State -3 | 89-83 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland State minus the points over Detroit at 9 pm et on Friday. Detroit has held its own against some quality opponents from power conferences on the road this season but has little to show for it with an 8-8 overall record. Note that the Titans' only road victories have come against 4-11 Western Michigan, 8-15 Oakland and a pair of wins against 11-10 Youngstown State. Cleveland State has suffered just one loss at home this season, that coming in the second half of a back-to-back set against 7-8 Wisconsin-Milwaukee in January. The Vikings clearly got caught looking past the Panthers at halftime in that game after beating them by double-digits the previous night and building an 11-point lead entering the second half. Since then, Cleveland State has reeled off four straight wins to improve to 14-5 on the campaign. Detroit is in a poor situation here as it checks in 8-19 ATS on the road after covering the number in three or more consecutive games. Cleveland State is 8-1 ATS the last nine times it has been favored by six points or less at home over the last two seasons. Take Cleveland State (10*). | |||||||
02-12-21 | Clippers -6.5 v. Bulls | 125-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Friday. We missed the mark with the Clippers in their most recent game - a seven-point victory in Minnesota on Wednesday but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Los Angeles got off to a very slow start in that game, perhaps caught looking past a bad T'Wolves squad that got an emotional boost from the return of Karl-Anthony Towns. With that being said, the Clips had every opportunity to earn the ATS cover were it not for a letdown in the closing minutes. Here, we're being asked to lay a much shorter number and this time I like L.A. to come away with a comfortable victory. Chicago is off a double-digit win in an underdog role against the Pelicans on Wednesday. Note that the Bulls haven't won consecutive games since reeling off three straight wins from January 17th-22nd. Fading the Bulls here is supported by a situation that has cashed at a 66-34 ATS clip over the last five seasons which involves fading underdog teams coming off a high-scoring upset win. Note that the Clips are 32-15 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in their previous contest over the last three seasons. On the flip side, the Bulls are 12-27 ATS when playing at home after an ATS win over the same stretch. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
02-12-21 | Georgia Tech v. Clemson -4.5 | Top | 72-74 | Loss | -108 | 23 h 44 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on Clemson minus the points over Georgia Tech at 8 pm et on Friday. This is a classic case of two teams heading in opposite directions, not to mention the revenge angle in play. Georgia Tech has dropped four of its last six games while Clemson checks in winners of three of its last four. Of course, the last time these two teams met it was no contest as Georgia Tech rolled to a 83-65 win at home. That came during a three-game slide for Clemson - with all three games resulting in blowout defeats. We saw the Tigers break out of their shooting funk in a big way last time out as they shot better than 52% from the field in a 17-point rout of Syracuse. Defensively, they've held three of their last four opponents to sub-39% shooting. Georgia Tech, meanwhile, has cooled offensively and now faces a Clemson squad that allows just 62.6 points per game against opponents that average 72.4 ppg on the season. I expect the Tigers to own the glass in this contest, which should help them ultimately put this game away. Note that Clemson has been a strong momentum play in similar situations in recent years, having gone 13-3 ATS following a double-digit win over the last two seasons, winning those games by an average margin of nearly 12 points. Take Clemson (10*). | |||||||
02-12-21 | Bruins v. Rangers +1.5 | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York +1.5 goals over Boston at 7:05 pm et on Friday. We're seeing a considerably higher price in favor of the Bruins in this matchup than we did on Wednesday - a game the B's won in overtime. While Boston is certainly deserving of the oddsmakers' respect, I see value backing the Rangers with an insurance goal in this one. Note that the Bruins are 8-15 straight-up when coming off three straight one-goal wins, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the Rangers are 8-2 straight-up following at least two straight home losses, outscoring opponents by an impressive 1.4 goals per contest in that situation. At the tail-end of a five-game homestand that has gone south over the last couple of games, look for New York to put forth a strong effort in this one. It's also worth mentioning that Boston has a clear look-ahead here to tomorrow's game against the Islanders on Long Island, as they'll be looking to avenge their lone regulation time loss of the season in that one. Take New York +1.5 goals (9*). | |||||||
02-12-21 | Florida Atlantic v. Texas-San Antonio -4 | Top | 80-84 | Push | 0 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
C-USA Game of the Year. My selection is on Texas-San Antonio minus the points over Florida Atlantic at 7 pm et on Friday. Florida Atlantic had its three-game winning streak snapped in a 74-71 loss vs. Charlotte back on January 23rd. Why am I going back to a game played weeks ago, you ask? Because the Owls haven't played since due to Covid protocols. The extended layoff was probably the worst thing for FAU after it had been playing well. Note that the Owls only two road victories this season have come against 7-11 North Florida and 9-12 Florida International. UTSA has to be feeling pretty good about itself after scoring 87 and 90 points in consecutive wins at FIU last weekend. The Roadrunners have lost just one game at home this season and that came against a quality 10-6 North Texas squad back on January 8th. UTSA will be playing with double-revenge in this spot after dropping both meetings against FAU last season. Note that the Roadrunners are 18-5 ATS at home against C-USA foes over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average of eight points per game. They're also a solid momentum play having gone a perfect 6-0 ATS after covering the number in at least two consecutive games over the last three seasons, winning those contests by an average margin of over 15 points. Take UTSA (10*). | |||||||
02-11-21 | UCLA v. Washington State UNDER 129.5 | 73-81 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between UCLA and Washington State at 11 pm et on Thursday. This game features a matchup of two good defensive teams and I like the way the situation sets up for the 'under' with both coming off a loss. UCLA is allowing just north of 67 points per game this season against opponents that average over 72 points per game. Here, they'll face a subpar Cougars offense that puts up a shade under 68 ppg against opponents that give up almost 70 ppg. Note that the 'under' has gone 38-15 the last 53 times Washington State has lost five or six of its last seven games, as is the case here. The 'under' has also gone a solid 48-24 in games involving Washington State where the total has settled at 129.5 or less (as is the case at the time of writing). This is a low total by both teams' standards this season but I believe it's warranted as the Bruins and Cougars look to tighten things up in an important Pac-12 matchup on Thursday night. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
02-11-21 | 76ers v. Blazers UNDER 229.5 | Top | 114-118 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 18 m | Show |
NBA on TNT TV Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Portland at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. This is being billed as a showdown between two of the league's top scorers in Joel Embiid and Damian Lillard. I believe the game may come down to defense, however. Keep in mind, these two teams just met earlier this month with the Blazers stunning the 76ers by a 121-105 score in Philadelphia. That was an uncharacteristically sloppy performance from Philadelphia as it committed 18 turnovers and gave up 19 offensive rebounds, directly contributing to the Blazers getting off 98 field goal attempts. Note that only the Lakers have been better than the 76ers in terms of defensive efficiency away from home this season. While the Blazers rank near the bottom of the Association in that category overall they actually sit sixth over their last three games. On the flip side, the Blazers somewhat surprisingly rank in the bottom-third of the NBA in floor percentage at home. I believe this total will prove too high. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
02-11-21 | 76ers v. Blazers +5.5 | Top | 114-118 | Win | 100 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Portland plus the points over Philadelphia at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. This situation sets up nicely for the Blazers as they host the red hot 76ers on Thursday night. Philadelphia opened this western road trip with a 119-111 win in Sacramento on Tuesday night, marking their second straight ATS victory and sixth in their last seven games. Note that Philadelphia is a woeful 11-26 ATS after covering the spread in two or more consecutive games over the last three seasons. The Sixers are also a long-term loser in this pointspread range on the road, going 9-21 ATS, outscored by an average of around three points per game, when laying six points or less away from home. Meanwhile, Portland has gone 105-75 ATS as a home underdog of six points or less. The Blazers are feeling some good vibes right now having won three of their last four games. They'll let weaker opponents hang around here at home, as we saw in Monday's single-digit win over the injury-depleted Magic. However, they're also capable of stepping up against quality opponents such as Philadelphia. Take Portland (10*). | |||||||
02-11-21 | Flames v. Canucks +1.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -191 | 25 h 49 m | Show |
NHL Puck-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on Vancouver +1.5 goals over Calgary at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. The Canucks are reeling right now having dropped five games in a row. They're already 0-2 against the Flames this season. In fact, they've lost three straight meetings in this series by at least two goals. That's where things get interesting. The Canucks haven't lost four straight games by multiple goal margins in this series since way back in 1984. While the Flames are coming off back-to-back wins and we actually won with them on Wednesday's 3-2 win over the Jets, I'm not sure they're on all that steady footing just yet. They've won just four of their last nine games overall, with one of those victories coming by way of a shootout. I do think getting back home will be beneficial for the Canucks after a brutal trip east. This team is too talented to stay down for long. We're dealing with a fairly steep price to grab the insurance goal in this case, but I believe the price could be even higher. Take Vancouver +1.5 goals (10*). | |||||||
02-11-21 | USC v. Washington OVER 145.5 | 69-54 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between USC and Washington at 10 pm et on Thursday. USC is coming off a dominating 66-48 win over UCLA but could certainly be in for a letdown against the lowly Washington Huskies on Thursday. Rather than grab the points with the Huskies, though, I'll play the 'over' as this sets up as a high-scoring affair. Note that the Trojans are averaging 75.7 points per game against opponents that give up just under 68 ppg. They should absolutely feast on a Washington defense that gives up nearly 79 ppg against opponents that allow an average just north of 73 ppg. Washington has posted a 10-2 o/u record when revenging a road loss against an opponent over the last two seasons. As bad as the Huskies overall record is, they have shot better than 50% from the field in four of their last eight games overall. Their only shot of making a game of this likely comes from pushing the pace. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
02-11-21 | Raptors v. Celtics -157 | 106-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston (moneyline) over Toronto at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. The Raptors have seemingly turned things around and come off a monster offensive performance in Washington last night. With that being said, I believe they'll be up against it in Boston on Thursday as the Celtics should be in foul mood coming off consecutive losses in Phoenix and Utah. Ordinarily, I'm not a big fan of backing teams in their first game back home following a long road trip, but here I'm willing to make an exception. The C's have played an uneven brand of basketball this season, largely due to injuries. They are getting healthier now, though, and will welcome the opportunity to face an Eastern Conference foe following an extended stretch against Western Conference opponents. Note that Boston is 11-2 ATS after failing to cover the spread in three of its last four games over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by nearly 11 points per game in that situation. While Boston is just 23-22-1 ATS in its last 46 meetings with Toronto, it has gone 33-13 straight-up over that stretch. Because I respect the Raps offense right now, rather than lay the handful of points with the Celtics, I'll back them on the moneyline at a very reasonable price in this spot. Take Boston moneyline (9*). | |||||||
02-11-21 | Colorado v. Stanford +1.5 | Top | 69-51 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Year. My selection is on Stanford plus the points over Colorado at 7 pm et on Thursday. I really like the way this one sets up for Stanford as it hosts 15-5 Colorado on Thursday. The Buffaloes are coming off consecutive home wins over Arizona and Oregon State but those victories were to be expected as they were favored by seven and 13 points, respectively. That sets up Colorado poorly here as it is a miserable 1-10 ATS in its last 11 road games following two or more straight home wins over the last three seasons. Going back much further the Buffs' are 62-88 ATS when going on the road off a straight-up home win. Stanford just delivered a two-game sweep of Cal and is well-positioned as a momentum play here at home, where the Cardinal have gone a perfect 6-0 ATS at home off a home conference win over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 13 points per game in that situation. On the flip side, they're also 19-9 ATS after dropping the cash in two of their last three games over the last three seasons. Colorado has taken 11 of the last 17 meetings in this series but Stanford has held its own in recent years, splitting the last four matchups. Take Stanford (10*). | |||||||
02-10-21 | Wisconsin v. Nebraska UNDER 137 | Top | 61-48 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
Big Ten Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Wisconsin and Nebraska at 9:30 pm et on Wednesday. This spot sets up ideally as the Badgers head to Nebraska off a disappointing 15-point loss at Illinois on Saturday. Note that the 'under' is a perfect 6-0 when Wisconsin plays on the road off one or more losses over the last two years, with those games averaging a total of just 116.5 points. The 'under' is also 9-1 in the Badgers last 10 games following an ATS loss with those games reaching an average of just 118.7 points. Nebraska is one of the Big Ten's worst teams but should be up for this one after getting crushed in back-to-back road games last week. Note that while the Huskers are by no means a strong defensive team, they have held their last two opponents below 40% shooting. Also note that the first meeting between these two teams this season reached just 120 points with only 40 made field goals. The Huskers are a long-term 'under' play here at home, where they've posted a 90-127 o/u record over their last 217 lined contests. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
02-10-21 | Cavs v. Nuggets UNDER 224.5 | 95-133 | Loss | -114 | 23 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Denver at 9:05 pm et on Wednesday. With both of these teams desperate to get back in the win column and both ranking in the bottom-five in the league in terms of pace rating, I'm not sure the relatively high posted total is warranted in this situation. The Cavs improbably scored 113 points in Monday's loss to the Suns in Phoenix - their highest scoring output since putting up 122 points in a win over the Pistons back on January 27th. I'm not counting on a repeat performance in the high altitude of Denver on Wednesday night, however. Note that the Cavs serve as somewhat of a relic in today's NBA, averaging a league-low 9.2 three-pointers made per game this season. Denver's offensive numbers have actually been just fine this season - at least in terms of efficiency. As noted, the Nuggets haven't really been pushing the pace, ranking 28th in the league in pace rating. They desperately need to snap their three-game losing streak on Wednesday and I suspect they'll lean on the fundamentals, playing tough defense and taking care of the basketball at the offensive end of the floor. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
02-10-21 | Missouri v. Ole Miss -1 | Top | 59-80 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
SEC Game of the Month. My selection is on Ole Miss minus the points over Missouri at 9 pm et on Wednesday. I like the momentum play with Ole Miss in this one as they look to gain some traction off consecutive wins over Tennessee and Auburn. Note that the Rebels are 8-1 ATS off an outright underdog win over a conference opponent over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by more than five points per game in that situation. They're also a solid 29-17 ATS coming off an ATS win over that same stretch. Missouri is coming off an extended run of success in SEC play but it's worth mentioning that the Tigers have gone 6-15 ATS after covering four or five of their last six games and have been outscored by nearly five points per game in that situation. They're a long-term losing proposition on the road having gone 102-134 ATS in their last 236 lined games away from home. I can't help but think a letdown could be in order for 13-3 Missouri here. Take Ole Miss (10*). | |||||||
02-10-21 | Hornets v. Grizzlies UNDER 226 | Top | 114-130 | Loss | -106 | 23 h 37 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Charlotte and Memphis at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. On the heels of four straight losses and after giving up 128 points in Monday's loss to the Raptors, you have to think the Grizzlies will be hyper-focused on improving their defensive play in this seemingly winnable game against the Hornets on Wednesday night. Despite their recent slide, the Grizz still rank top 10 in the league in defensive rating. Unfortunately their offense has gone cold, with Ja Morant in particular really struggling to regain his shooting touch since returning from injury late last month. The Hornets have scored exactly 119 points in consecutive games, but still rank T21st in the league in field goal percentage and in the bottom half of the NBA in terms of pace rating. The last time these two teams met back on New Year's Day they combined to score just 201 points. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
02-10-21 | Clippers -10 v. Wolves | Top | 119-112 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
NBA Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Minnesota at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. Off back-to-back losses we can anticipate the Clippers will be in a foul mood and ready to take out their frustrations on the hapless T'Wolves on Wednesday night. Last season the Clips ranked fifth in the NBA in defensive efficiency but they've taken a step back in that regard this year, middling in 15th position in that category. Here, they catch a break however, as Minnesota ranks 28th in the league in offensive efficiency with no discernible difference between their poor results on the road and at home. Interestingly, the Clips check in tops in the league in offensive efficiency on the road and despite the fact they're off consecutive losses, they rank sixth in that category over their last three contests. There's reason to believe we'll see a breakout performance from Los Angeles here. I'm fine with laying the double-digits in this spot. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
02-10-21 | Maple Leafs v. Canadiens UNDER 6.5 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Montreal at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. I think bettors had come to expect high-scoring results from the Leafs every night after they drummed the Canucks to the tune of 12 goals in consecutive games last week. However, on Monday night, Toronto scored just three times, albeit in another victory over Vancouver. As the Leafs schedule toughens up I expect to see a continued reversion to the mean offensively. The last time these two rivals met was on opening night when the Leafs rallied from 3-1 and 4-3 down to secure a 5-4 overtime victory. Since then, the Canadiens have given up more than three goals in a game only once - and that was in a shootout victory over the aforementioned Canucks. Like the Leafs, the Habs had been on fire offensively but have since cooled, scoring just four goals in their last two games, against the lowly Senators no less. Sure, these two teams have the potential to light up the scoreboard, but I'll take the contrarian route and call for a lower-scoring affair than we saw in the season-opener. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
02-10-21 | Bruins v. Rangers UNDER 6 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 58 m | Show |
NHL TV Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and New York at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Rangers may have plenty of offensive firepower on paper but that hasn't translated to much success on the ice, noting that they rank 24th in the league in goals per game. They'll be in tough looking for a breakout performance against a Bruins squad that ranks T2nd in goals per game allowed and tops in the league in shots per game allowed. That's not to mention their second overall rank in terms of penalty kill percentage. Perhaps the Rangers saving grace here will be that the B's have been idle for nearly a week due to a couple of Covid-related postponements and the fact that they rank in virtually the middle of the pack in terms of goals per game. New York ranks in the league's top 10 in goals per game allowed and should hold its own in this Original Six matchup. Take the under (10*) | |||||||
02-09-21 | Jets v. Flames -134 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 25 h 19 m | Show |
NHL North Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Calgary over Winnipeg at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. I'm higher on the Flames than most in spite of their uneven 5-5-1 start to the season. We won with them on Saturday as they prevailed by a 6-4 score in the campaign's first installment of the 'Battle of Alberta' against the Oilers. Here, they'll be looking to avenge three losses in four tries against the Jets already this season. Calgary went out and got goaltender Jakob Markstrom in the offseason in an effort to compete against teams like the Jets, who have a bonafide star in goal in Connor Hellebuyck. So far this season Markstrom hasn't disappointed, actually matching Hellebuyck's numbers on the whole and besting him in some regards including a 2-0 edge in shutouts. Winnipeg is off to a 7-3-1 start on the strength of those aforementioned three wins over the Flames. I don't really like the scheduling spot here as they play this one-off on the road before returning home for consecutive (winnable) games against the Senators. Take Calgary (10*). | |||||||
02-09-21 | Sharks v. Kings UNDER 6 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -121 | 25 h 59 m | Show |
NHL West Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between San Jose and Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. Incredibly, 14 of the last 16 regular season meetings between these two California rivals (dating back to the start of the 2016-17 season) have topped out at five goals or less with only one of those contests surpassing the six-goal mark. Thanks to Covid-related postponements, the Sharks will be playing just their third game in February on Tuesday night. Note that they've been held to a goal or less in two of their last three games overall. Meanwhile, the Kings are coming off a tough winless two-game jaunt to Las Vegas and have now dropped four games in a row overall. Los Angeles has one of the league's most punchless offenses by most accounts. The Kings check in ranked T19th in goals per game and 23rd in shots on goal per game. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
02-09-21 | St. John's v. Butler -2.5 | Top | 73-76 | Win | 100 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
Big East Game of the Year. My selection is on Butler minus the points over St. John's at 9 pm et on Tuesday. St. John's got the better of Butler earlier this season, rolling to a double-digit victory on its home floor back in January. Keep in mind, that sets up Butler nicely here noting that the Bulldogs have gone an incredible 8-1 ATS in home games when revenging a loss vs. an opponent over the last two seasons. Also note that Butler is an impressive 23-10 ATS the last 33 times it has played after losing three of its last four games - as is the case here. The Red Storm are by no means a stout defensive team and it's worth mentioning that they're 13-29 ATS when following up a game where both teams scored 80+ points. With St. John's rolling off six consecutive wins, it is certain to get Butler's best shot here. I like the Bulldogs to clamp down defensively and build off their last game - a double-digit win over Depaul on Saturday. Take Butler (10*). | |||||||
02-09-21 | West Virginia v. Texas Tech -5 | Top | 82-71 | Loss | -112 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
Big 12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Texas Tech minus the points over West Virginia at 9 pm et on Tuesday. West Virginia caught Texas Tech flat-footed in the last meeting between these two teams back on January 25th. The Red Raiders entered that game off a tough home loss to Baylor - snapping a three-game winning streak in the process. Perhaps more importantly, Texas Tech was coming off an eight-day layoff while West Virginia had just got a nice tune-up two days earlier in a 22-point rout of Kansas State. Not surprisingly, the Mountaineers shot the lights out (57.7%) but still only managed to defeat Texas Tech by a single point, at home no less. Now West Virginia finds itself in a tough spot, noting that the Mountaineers are 1-8 ATS on the road when coming off a win over a conference opponent over the last three seasons, losing those games by around 11 points per contest. They're also just 56-83 ATS when playing on the road after winning three of their last four games. This time it's Texas Tech that's fresh off a nice tune-up win over Kansas State, having defeated the Wildcats 73-62 on Saturday. That marked the Red Raiders third straight win. Look for them to make it four in a row here in convincing fashion. Take Texas Tech (10*). | |||||||
02-09-21 | Warriors v. Spurs -1.5 | 114-91 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Antonio minus the points over Golden State at 8:35 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the Spurs last night in their come-from-behind victory over the Warriors and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. The Warriors entered last night's game on a red hot shooting tear but certainly cooled off over the course of that defeat, ultimately shooting just 44% from the field and making 13-of-37 three-point attempts. It might be tough for them to get it right back here on Tuesday. The Spurs will be determined to keep their winning streak (currently three games) intact before they head east on a long seven-game road trip. Meanwhile, Golden State has been largely inconsistent this season and is still just a .500 team despite its strong showing in late January (and even in a nationally televised rout of the Mavs last Thursday). I believe the Spurs are once again being discounted here and we'll take advantage again. Take San Antonio (10*). | |||||||
02-09-21 | Blackhawks v. Stars OVER 5.5 | 2-1 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Dallas at 8:35 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a low-scoring affair between these two teams last time out as the Blackhawks prevailed by a 2-1 score in overtime. Of course, that's not par for the course when it comes to the Blackhawks as they've proven to be one of the league's most vulnerable defensive teams and have certainly been involved in their share of high-scoring games. Offensively, it's only a matter of time before Chicago breaks out and shows some consistency, noting that it ranks 11th in shots on goal per game but 21st in shooting percentage. On the flip side, the Stars are second in shooting percentage and third in goals per game. Both of these teams check in top four in the league in power play percentage. It all adds up to a relatively high-scoring contest in Big D on Tuesday. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
02-08-21 | Warriors v. Spurs +1 | Top | 100-105 | Win | 100 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on San Antonio over Golden State at 8:35 pm et on Monday. I really like the way this one sets up as a fade/letdown spot for the Warriors after an draining two-game set in Dallas which they only managed a split. Steph Curry is of course coming off a 57-point outburst in front of a national TV audience on Saturday night but that wasn't enough to secure the victory. Now the Warriors head to San Antonio to face a Spurs squad that may not draw as much motivation but is a formidable opponent nonetheless. San Antonio has won five of its last seven games overall and should be a galvanized unit off consecutive tight victories over the Timberwolves and Rockets. With this being the first of a back-to-back set here at the AT&T Center, look for the Spurs to put their best foot forward on Monday night. Take San Antonio (10*). | |||||||
02-08-21 | Coyotes v. Blues -152 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -152 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
NHL West Division Game of the Year. My selection is on St. Louis over Arizona at 8:05 pm et on Monday. The Blues came out completely flat in Saturday's matinee affair against the Coyotes, perhaps lacking excitement or motivation playing the same team for a third consecutive game. Now after dropping back-to-back games against Arizona, I do think St. Louis will be able to draw the appropriate level of motivation and hunger as it tries to salvage a split in this four-game set. The Blues were fortunate not to suffer a more lopsided loss on Saturday considering the way they played. They're still a respectable 7-4-1 on the campaign and that marked the first time this season they've dropped consecutive games. For Arizona, Saturday's victory marked the first time it managed to secure back-to-back wins this season. I believe it will be hard-pressed to make it three victories in a row on Monday as it likely has one eye on getting out of St. Louis and back home for a staggering 10-game homestand beginning this Saturday against - you guessed it - the St. Louis Blues. Take St. Louis (10*). | |||||||
02-07-21 | Chiefs v. Bucs +3 | 9-31 | Win | 100 | 21 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay plus the points over Kansas City at 6:30 pm et on Sunday. I'm actually surprised at how popular of a pick the Chiefs seem to be entering Super Bowl Sunday. With that being said, I can't help but think the books are begging for Kansas City action with this line sitting at a field goal. The public hasn't been behind Tom Brady's Bucs at all in these playoffs, and that doesn't appear to be changing here. Brady has looked as relaxed and confident as he has at any stage of his career during this playoff run. It certainly seems as if the Bucs as a team are getting stronger with each passing game. The Chiefs have looked invincible for much of the last two seasons but I think they're going to be up against it on Sunday. When it comes to the NFL it's tough to bet against a 'team of destiny' as the Bucs certainly appear to be. Take Tampa Bay (10*). | |||||||
02-07-21 | Celtics v. Suns -3 | 91-100 | Win | 100 | 17 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Boston at 2:05 pm et on Sunday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Suns as they catch the Celtics coming off a big road win over the Clippers. Note that Phoenix ranks an impressive sixth in the league in defensive efficiency this season with that ranking rising to number three in the league at home. By contrast, the Celtics sit 18th in the same category on the road. The Suns are obviously a much better team with a healthy Devin Booker on the floor. Since returning to the lineup three games ago he has scored 24, 25 and 23 points despite topping out at 31 minutes. Look for him to get extended a little more in this game on Sunday afternoon. While the C's are off a big win, they've actually posted just two victories in their last five games overall. Take Phoenix (10*). | |||||||
02-06-21 | Penguins v. Islanders -108 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. The Islanders always seem to get up for the Penguins, having taken seven of the last 10 meetings in the series, and coming off an extended losing streak followed by a long layoff I expect to see them bring their best effort on Saturday night on Long Island. Of course, the Pens are also coming off an extended layoff due to Covid-related postponements. With both teams looking to regain their footing off of losing efforts, I'll give the Isles the edge on home ice. Barry Trotz is one of the best coaches in the league. He'll have his Isles ready for Sid and co. on Saturday night. Take New York (10*). | |||||||
02-06-21 | Canucks v. Maple Leafs OVER 6.5 | 1-5 | Loss | -123 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Vancouver and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. These two teams are coming off a high-scoring affair on Thursday night but what else is new? The Canucks have seen their last three games total eight, eight and 10 goals. 10 of their 14 games this season have totaled at least seven goals. Meanwhile, the Leafs haven't been involved in a game totaling less than seven goals since January 24th against Calgary. With the Canucks desperate to snap a three-game losing streak, I'm expecting them to get baited into another high-scoring affair here. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
02-06-21 | Coyotes v. Blues -160 | 3-1 | Loss | -160 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis over Arizona at 3:05 pm et on Saturday. The Blues and Coyotes have split the first two games of this three-game set, with Arizona prevailing by a 4-3 score last time out. Keep in mind, St. Louis checks in a perfect 3-0 this season when coming off a loss. I like the offensive consistency the Blues have shown lately, scoring at least three goals in six consecutive games entering this one. The Coyotes are a middling squad, having gone 0-3 when following a victory this season. Take St. Louis (10*). | |||||||
02-06-21 | Blazers v. Knicks +1.5 | 99-110 | Win | 100 | 6 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York plus the points over Portland at 1:05 pm et on Saturday. The Blazers are coming off consecutive wins on this eastern road swing, taking down the Wizards and 76ers. We actually won with Portland in the win in Washington. Here, I'll go the other way as it continues its trip with an early start game in Manhattan. Keep in mind, the Blazers continue to play without a number of key cogs. Damian Lillard has been carrying the load but even he is nursing an abdomen injury. The Knicks have shown some growth already this season. It's worth noting that they rank an impressive 7th in the league in defensive efficiency while Portland sits a miserable 28th in that category. Take New York (10*). | |||||||
02-05-21 | Raptors v. Nets -4.5 | 123-117 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Brooklyn minus the points over Toronto at 7:35 pm et on Friday. The Raptors 'got right' with back-to-back wins over the reeling Magic earlier this week, capped off by Fred Van Vleet's incredible 54-point outburst last time out. Keep in mind, those two wins came on the heels of three straight losses. The Raps remain a disappointing 9-12 on the season. Brooklyn has won five of its last six games to move five games over .500 on the campaign. While a letdown could certainly be in order off a four-point win over the Clippers, I think we'll instead see Brooklyn ramp up before heading out on the road for two games in Philadelphia and Detroit. Take Brooklyn (10*). | |||||||
02-05-21 | Bruins -129 v. Flyers | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston over Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The Bruins have quite simply had the Flyers number this season. David Pastrnak has to be in Flyers goaltender Carter Hart's head at this point. After rallying from a third period deficit to win in overtime on Wednesday night, I'm confident we see the B's keep on rolling on Friday night in Philadelphia. The Flyers aren't off to a bad start but haven't lived up to lofty expectations by any means. Look for Boston to prevail in what could be another high-scoring affair. Take Boston (10*). | |||||||
02-04-21 | Nuggets +5 v. Lakers | 93-114 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. The Nuggets appear to have turned the corner again with wins in six of their last seven games and they enter this contest in a terrific spot having been idle since Sunday's double-digit win over the Jazz. Meanwhile, the Lakers return home following a long seven-game road trip out east - a traditional flat spot in the NBA. Note that Los Angeles has topped out at 107 points over its last four games. That might not be enough on Thursday. Take Denver (10*). | |||||||
02-03-21 | Mavs v. Hawks +2 | 122-116 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Dallas at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Hawks are coming off a close loss to the Lakers on Monday night but that doesn't change the fact that they've been playing well and should be in fine bounce-back position against a struggling Mavericks squad on Wednesday night. Dallas just hasn't been the same consistent force this season and it enters this contest off yet another disappointing performance in a one-point loss to Phoenix - its sixth consecutive loss. I believe a better get-right spot will come back at home as they open a seven-game homestand following this one. Take Atlanta (10*). | |||||||
02-02-21 | Blazers +2 v. Wizards | 132-121 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Portland plus the points over Washington at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the Blazers in Chicago on Saturday and I won't hesitate to back them again on Tuesday as they once again find themselves as a short underdog on the road. The Wizards are coming off a thrilling three-point win over the Nets on Sunday but will be hard-pressed to top that 149-point outburst here. Keep in mind, that was just their fourth victory of the season and first since January 11th. After dropping a tough one in Milwaukee last night, look for Portland to bounce back here. Take Portland (10*). | |||||||
02-01-21 | Kings v. Pelicans -3.5 | 118-109 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Sacramento at 8:05 pm et on Monday. I like the rebound spot for the Pelicans here as they look to get back in the win column after a blowout loss to the Rockets on Saturday. That was a clear letdown spot for New Orleans as it had just won two games in a row, including an upset victory over the Bucks one night earlier. Here, the Pelicans should respond with a positive effort against a middling Kings squad. Sacramento has gone 2-1 on this road trip so far, with its last two games settled by a grand total of just three points. Off those two tight, emotional contests, look for the Kings to suffer a bit of a flat spot here. Take New Orleans (10*). | |||||||
02-01-21 | Canucks +145 v. Canadiens | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Vancouver over Montreal at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The price is just too steep in favor of the Habs in this one as they look to bounce back from Saturday's 2-0 loss to the Flames. The Canucks got off to a slow start this season but managed to get right with three straight high-scoring wins over the Senators and followed that up with a 4-1 victory over the Jets on Saturday. I believe Vancouver is a galvanized squad right now and should relish the opportunity to head east and take down the Habs - who had been off to a red hot start prior to Saturday's setback. Keep in mind, the Canucks will be looking for an ounce of revenge here as well after dropping a pair of contests against the Canadiens in Vancouver earlier this season. Take Vancouver (10*). | |||||||
01-31-21 | Stars v. Hurricanes UNDER 5.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -125 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Carolina at 5:05 pm et on Sunday. We saw a fairly 'low event' game between these two teams last night as the Hurricanes skated to a 4-1 victory. That contest featured just 37 shots on goal, including only 11 from the Blackhawks. Carolina has been a rock defensively in the early going this season while Dallas' offense has only been good in fits and starts, scoring seven goals on two occasions but a grand total of just five goals in regulation time in their other three contests. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
01-31-21 | Jazz +2 v. Nuggets | 117-128 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah plus the points over Denver at 3:35 pm et on Sunday. The Jazz just keep rolling along, having not lost a game since way back on January 6th. Here, they go on the road to face what can only be considered an overrated Nuggets squad at this point. Denver had won five games in a row before dropping a 10-point decision in San Antonio last time out. Keep in mind, the Nuggets recent winning streak came against struggling opponents in the Suns (twice), Mavs and Heat. Utah continues to be an undervalued commodity despite its scorching hot play. Take Utah (10*). | |||||||
01-30-21 | Blazers +2 v. Bulls | 123-122 | Win | 101 | 13 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Portland plus the points over Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. I like the Blazers to bounce back from Thursday's narrow three-point loss in Houston as they head to Chicago to face the Bulls on Saturday night. Chicago was put in its place in consecutive home setbacks against the Lakers and Celtics, bringing a halt to a three-game winning streak in the process. The Blazers will be looking to snap a two-game skid of their own in this spot, noting that they've yet to lose more than two games in a row this season. Take Portland (10*). | |||||||
01-30-21 | Maple Leafs v. Oilers +118 | 3-4 | Win | 118 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Edmonton over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. We missed the mark with the Oilers in Thursday's 4-3 loss but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Saturday night. Edmonton came up just short in the opener of this two-game set, dropping a 4-3 decision. It's been another slow start for the Oilers but I am confident they can rise to the occasion in this Saturday night contest. The fact that we're being offered an even higher price (at the time of writing) than we saw on Thursday makes this a worthwhile wager. Take Edmonton (10*). | |||||||
01-29-21 | Hawks v. Wizards OVER 232 | 116-100 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Friday. I believe the case could be made for this total to be set in the 140's. The Hawks have quietly gotten back to playing good basketball lately, going 4-2 over their last six games with their only two losses coming on the road against the Bucks and at home in overtime against the Nets. With that of course comes terrific play at the offensive end of the floor and I have no doubt they can expose a bad Wizards defense here. Washington continues to get out of this world production from Bradley Beal. While the Wiz have just three wins on the season, they're still fun to watch. Off a few blowout losses on the road, I'm confident we see them force the issue a little bit against a beatable Hawks defense on Friday. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
01-28-21 | Maple Leafs v. Oilers +115 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
NHL Game of the Week. My selection is on Edmonton over Toronto at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. The value has shifted to the Oilers for this one as these two North Division foes renew hostilities after last week's two-game set in Toronto. Edmonton managed to split that mini-series and I look for it to gain the upper hand here as it catches the Maple Leafs in a clear letdown spot off consecutive wins in Calgary. Connor McDavid appears in midseason form for the Oil already this season and this is a big step-up spot at home against Auston Matthews and the Leafs. We'll back the Oil in an underdog role. Take Edmonton (10*). | |||||||
01-27-21 | Celtics v. Spurs OVER 224 | 106-110 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and San Antonio at 8:35 pm et on Wednesday. I'm expecting a track meet between the Celtics and Spurs on Wednesday night. The Celtics have finally gotten healthy again and it has showed in their last two games, as they posted consecutive wins, scoring 141 and 119 points in the process. Meanwhile, the Spurs will be eager to get back on the floor after Monday's game in New Orleans was postponed. They notched a win over the Wizards on Sunday, scoring 121 points despite getting just nine points from Demar Derozan and not having a single starter score more than 16 points. The most recent matchup between these two teams came last January, with the Spurs winning a wild one by a 129-114 score. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
01-27-21 | Senators v. Canucks OVER 6.5 | 1-5 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Ottawa and Vancouver at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. If you can't beat 'em, join 'em. The Canucks have been involved in high-scoring game after high-scoring game this season and there's little reason to anticipate a shift as they host the Senators for the second time in three nights on Wednesday. I am higher on the Sens than some, even after a tough start to the season. I certainly expect them to punch back here tonight after getting routed by a 7-1 score on Monday. With that being said, I'm not convinced that they can keep the Canucks surging offense at bay. Vancouver got off to a slow start this season but we've seen its best players begin to round into form in recent contests. Even with Elias Pettersson struggling a bit, there's a lot of upside right now. Let's call this one 4-3 either way. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
01-27-21 | Kings v. Magic -1.5 | 121-107 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando minus the points over Sacramento at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the Magic two nights ago and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with them again here as they draw a winnable matchup against the Kings. Sacramento is coming off a win over the Knicks, but that was last Friday. Its last two games were scheduled to be played in Memphis but were postponed due to Covid protocols. The Kings haven't won a road game since posting a two-point victory in Denver back on December 23rd. Now they travel across the country after four full days off to face a Magic squad that is looking to find some consistency and post consecutive wins for the first time since January 4th and 6th. I like the upside the Magic offer after a tough stretch, noting that they could just as easily be entering this game on a four-game winning streak after a couple of heartbreaking two and three-point setbacks over the weekend. Take Orlando (10*). | |||||||
01-26-21 | Knicks +11 v. Jazz | Top | 94-108 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on New York plus the points over Utah at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. I have no problem fading the red hot Jazz here as they aim to extend their eight-game winning streak, but do so with an eye on a three-game in five-night stretch against the Mavs and Nuggets up next. The Knicks betting bandwagon was loading up on the heels of three straight victories last week but has since cleared following consecutive losses to the Kings and Trailblazers. I expect New York's best effort here as it tries to avoid a losing four-game road trip before a couple of off days. Note that New York took the first meeting between these two teams this season, by double-digits no less, back on January 6th at home. While the Jazz will be looking to get their revenge here, I'm still not sure a losing squad like the Knicks will garner their complete attention. Take New York (10*). | |||||||
01-26-21 | Panthers +112 v. Blue Jackets | 4-3 | Win | 112 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Florida over Columbus at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Blue Jackets had a busy weekend on and off the ice and enter this game off a big 5-2 win over the Lightning on Saturday. I suspect a letdown could be in order on Tuesday, however, as they host the Panthers. Florida is off to a perfect 2-0 start, delivering consecutive wins over the Blackhawks to open the campaign. With their last two games in Carolina having been postponed, this will be Florida's first game in a week. I do expect it to respond favorably, however. I have the Panthers rated higher than some, and believe we're being offered a very generous price to back them in this winnable matchup. Take Florida (10*). | |||||||
01-25-21 | Senators v. Canucks UNDER 6.5 | 1-7 | Loss | -118 | 14 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Ottawa and Vancouver at 10:05 pm et on Monday. I'll go the contrarian route and back the 'under' as the Sens and Canucks do battle in the only game on Monday's NHL board. Both teams have been involved in their share of high-scoring games out of the gate this season. Keep in mind, they've both faced very high-scoring opposition. I expect a different story to unfold on Monday as both teams look to bounce back after disappointing losses on Saturday night. Expect a tightly-contested affair. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
01-25-21 | Hornets v. Magic +2 | 108-117 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Charlotte at 7:05 pm et on Monday. We missed the mark with the Magic last night as they fell on a buzzer-beater in the first half of this back-to-back set. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with Orlando here as it is well-positioned to rebound against a beatable Hornets squad. The Magic controlled proceedings much of the way last night before falling apart in the fourth quarter. With that being said, they still managed to tie the game up with eight seconds remaining. Their motivation level will certainly be high on Monday night as they look to get back in the win column at home. Take Orlando (10*). | |||||||
01-24-21 | Sharks v. Wild -148 | 5-3 | Loss | -148 | 13 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota over San Jose at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. The Wild keep rolling along and after winning with them on Friday night against the Sharks, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with them again in the same matchup on Sunday. We're actually being afforded a cheaper price to back Minnesota (at the time of writing). The revenge angle is one that many bettors have been reaching for here in the early going of this unique 2021 NHL season. I'm simply not high on the Sharks at all and don't believe they'll catch the Wild napping in this spot. Take Minnesota (10*). | |||||||
01-24-21 | Hornets v. Magic -1.5 | 107-104 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando minus the points over Charlotte at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. The Magic have been scuffing along, having dropped seven of their last eight games overall but they have an excellent opportunity to get back on track against a sliding Hornets squad on Sunday evening. Note that Charlotte has lost four games in a row. Orlando is coming off a narrow overtime loss on the road against the Pacers last time out and should be able to use that performance as a springboard, noting that it had won the game prior to that, albeit by a single point against the lowly T'Wolves. Take Orlando (10*). | |||||||
01-24-21 | Bills v. Chiefs -3 | 24-38 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Buffalo at 6:40 pm et on Sunday. I'll lay the points with the Chiefs here. I predicted a Chiefs-Packers Super Bowl prior to the playoffs and I'm not going to waver from that decision here. Yes, the Bills have impressed. Not just in the playoffs but all season long. Yes, they're a formidable opponent capable of giving Kansas City all it can handle on Sunday night. With that being said, I simply feel the Buffalo defense can, and will, be exposed and exploited by Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense. Mahomes is obviously banged-up, dealing with a concussion and a toe injury. There are plenty of doubters out there that don't believe Mahomes can be as effective in this game. Even if he is somewhat limited, I'll still take him over a beatable defense and in the worst case, expect Andy Reid to gameplan around Mahomes limitations. All told, it serves to give us a very reasonable pointspread to work with. Take Kansas City (10*). | |||||||
01-24-21 | Bucs v. Packers -174 | Top | 31-26 | Loss | -174 | 79 h 31 m | Show |
NFL Playoff Game of the Year. My selection is on Green Bay (moneyline) over Tampa Bay at 3:05 pm et on Sunday. To put it simply, I can't envision the Packers losing this game. Rather than lay the 3 or 3.5 points against a Tom Brady-led Bucs offense that has proven time and time again it can play comeback ball and has high-potential to sneak in the back door for a push or cover, I'll keep it simple and back the Packers on the moneyline as I do feel the price could and should be even higher than it is. Of course, if you follow my plays regularly you know that I picked the Packers to win the Super Bowl prior to the playoffs. I certainly didn't see anything to make me believe otherwise in last week's rout of the Rams. Green Bay didn't really need to bring its 'A' game against an undermanned Rams squad, but will need it here. I expect Aaron Rodgers and company to deliver a peak performance against an admittedly rolling Bucs squad. I do think a little bit of recency bias could be at play here with most bettors remembering Tom Brady and the Bucs big performance against the Saints last Sunday night. Last Saturday's game at Lambeau Field has been all but forgotten. Give the Bucs credit, but they were in a fight with the Saints for three quarters - and that was with Drew Brees struggling mightily - clearly a shell of his former self and without swiss-army knife Taysom Hill to yield to. The fact is, this Packers team is different this year. Aaron Rodgers looks like he's having as much fun as he's had at any point of his career, and his supporting cast seems to get better with each passing week. With revenge on their minds after that ugly regular season loss in Tampa, look for the Pack to punch their ticket to Super Bowl LV in South Florida with a win on Sunday afternoon. Take Green Bay moneyline (10*). | |||||||
01-23-21 | Warriors v. Jazz UNDER 225.5 | Top | 108-127 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Utah at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. The Jazz are coming off a high-scoring game against the Pelicans on Thursday night but that was to be expected given the recent history between those two teams. Here, I look for Utah to control proceedings defensively and ultimately keep this one 'under' the posted total. The Warriors have been playing better lately and rank third in the league in pace rating but I'm not sure that up-tempo play will be all that fruitful against the Jazz given they're one of the league's better defensive teams (6th in defensive rating) and the fact that Golden State ranks 22nd in field goal percentage. While the Warriors aren't known for their strong defensive play, they do rank in the top half of the league in terms of defensive rating. Note that prior to Thursday's 129-point outburst against an awful Pelicans defense, the Jazz had scored 118 points or less in five consecutive games. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
01-23-21 | Flyers v. Bruins UNDER 5.5 | 1-6 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Boston at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. We saw a wild, high-scoring game between these two teams on Thursday night as the Bruins prevailed by a 5-4 score in a shootout. It's worth noting that we didn't see a goal in that game until around 26 minutes in, however. Flyers goaltender Carter Hart has struggled in the early going this season but it's only a matter of time before he settles in, and Thursday's performance was positive in the sense that he did keep the Bruins off the scoresheet for the first two periods. Hart faced a barrage of shots in that contest but I expect the Flyers to do a better job of defending in this one. Thursday's game marked the B's first real offensive breakthough of the season after three games in which they scored a grand total of three goals in regulation time. They're undoubtedly missing puck-moving defenseman Torey Krug (who is now with St. Louis) and superstar forward David Pastrnak. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
01-22-21 | Knicks +4 v. Kings | 94-103 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York plus the points over Sacramento at 10:05 pm et on Friday. The Knicks continue to get no respect from the oddsmakers as they check in as an underdog in Sacramento on Friday night. Of course, the narrative will be that they're in for a letdown after last night's double-digit win over the Warriors, but I don't see it happening. New York is back to the .500 mark on the season and this is without question a winnable game against a Kings squad mired in a 5-10 start, having dropped four in a row and six of their last seven overall. Yesterday Sacramento got word that its next two games after this one, scheduled to be played in Memphis, have been postponed. That serves as another distraction for a team that certainly doesn't need any given its recent struggles. Look for the Knicks to keep rolling here. Take New York (10*). | |||||||
01-22-21 | Sharks v. Wild -156 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota over San Jose at 8:05 pm et on Friday. The Sharks have perhaps exceeded expectations by winning two of their first four games - all on the road - to open the season. With that being said, it's worth noting that one of those wins came by way of overtime with the other coming in a shootout. Minnesota checks in an impressive 3-1 - also starting the season with four straight road games. I liked the way the Wild bounced back with a very composed effort against the Ducks on Wednesday night and look for them to continue to play well in their home opener on Friday night. While they're installed as a considerable home favorite here, I believe the price could be even higher. Take Minnesota (10*). | |||||||
01-21-21 | Pelicans +7 v. Jazz | 118-129 | Loss | -112 | 13 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Utah at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. The Pelicans suffered a third quarter lapse in Tuesday's meeting between these two teams, and it ultimately cost them in an eventual 16-point loss (that result was actually flattering as the Pelicans closed the gap in garbage time in the fourth quarter). I do expect a strong bounce-back performance from New Orleans here. Note that while Utah took three of four meetings between these two teams last season, they did so by a combined six-point margin. We're catching that many points in this game alone with the number potentially moving higher closer to tipoff. Despite their 5-8 record, I do think the Pelicans have the potential to be an improved team and I'm confident head coach Stan Van Gundy will have them ready following an off day in Utah yesterday. I'll call for the Pels' to at the very least take this one down to the wire against a red hot Jazz squad. Take New Orleans (10*). | |||||||
01-21-21 | Canadiens v. Canucks +111 | 7-3 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Vancouver over Montreal at 9:35 pm et on Thursday. A shootout ultimately amounts to little more than a coin flip but the Canucks have to feel good about snapping their three-game skid with a wild 6-5 shootout victory over the Canadiens last night. Credit Vancouver for hanging in there after falling behind with less than four minutes remaining in the third period, tying the game less than a minute later to force overtime. We won with the Canucks in that game and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Montreal is off to a flying start offensively but has to be a little road weary at this point having played four games in three different cities over the last week. I'm not sure how long they can keep up their roaring start. The price is right to back the Canucks here in what should be a lower-scoring affair than we saw a night ago. Take Vancouver (10*). | |||||||
01-20-21 | Canadiens v. Canucks +111 | 5-6 | Win | 111 | 14 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Vancouver over Montreal at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Canadiens are off to a roaring start to the new season, having collected at least a point in all three games and coming off back-to-back dominating victories over the Oilers. After winning with ease with backup Jake Allen between the pipes on Monday, I suspect the majority of bettors will be quick to back them again here, especially given the Canucks early season struggles having dropped three of their first four games. I'm anticipating a strong performance from Vancouver here, however, as it returns home for the first time this season. It's easy to forget that the Canucks opened the season with a solid 5-3 win in Edmonton one week ago tonight. Since then, their offense has gone cold, scoring just four goals in three games. There's too much talent on board to stay down for long though. I believe Vancouver has a lot of upside at the current price in the first of three straight games against Montreal. Take Vancouver (10*). | |||||||
01-20-21 | Wild v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Anaheim at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a true 'low-event' game between these two teams on Monday (we won with the Ducks) and I expect more of the same in Wednesday night's rematch in Anaheim. It might only be a matter of time before we start seeing 5's on the board in games involving both the Wild and Ducks - harkening back to the 'dead puck' era of the NHL. I just don't see a breakout offensive performance coming from either squad here, with Minnesota getting ready to head home following four straight road games to open the season and Anaheim aiming to collect at least a point in a third straight game before a tough two-game set against the Avalanche. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
01-20-21 | Heat v. Raptors -160 | 111-102 | Loss | -160 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto (moneyline) over Miami at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. If you're looking for a 'buy signal' from the Raptors look no further than the recent performances from Kyle Lowry. After slumping out west he has bounced back, shooting 21-of-35 and racking up 58 points and dishing out 25 assists over his last three games - all Raptors victories here at home. Of course, it's not just Lowry that has been playing well - his supporting cast has also been more productive, helping Toronto score 111, 116 and 116 points over its last three contests. Tonight's opponent, the Miami Heat, is a shell of its former self right now, largely due to injuries and Covid protocols. To put it simply, the Raptors are catching the Heat at the right time. Miami did rally for a win over the Pistons to snap a three-game skid last time out but now plays its sixth game in the last 12 nights with a Covid-related postponement mixed in as well. Rather than lay the points with the Raptors in this spot, I'll back them on the moneyline as we're being offered a very reasonable price. Take Toronto moneyline (10*). | |||||||
01-19-21 | Thunder v. Nuggets -9.5 | 101-119 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver minus the points over Oklahoma City at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Nuggets have been scuffing their heels all season, off to a disappointing 6-7 start although we did cash with them last Thursday night in their double-digit win over the Warriors - the same Warriors team that stunned the Lakers last night in Los Angeles. Here, I look for a focused effort from Denver as it looks to close out its three-game homestand on a winning note before heading out on the road for five games. Oklahoma City was expected to be a bottom-feeder in the Western Conference this season but has surprised by going 6-6 through 12 games including a 5-1 mark away from home. The Thunder really got rolling out east earlier this month, reeling off four wins in five games on the road but since then they've gone just 1-2 with both losses coming by double-digit margins. I believe their lack of depth catches up with them in this spot as they play their fifth game in eight nights against a highly-motivated Nuggets squad that has the talent to win this one going away provided it stays focused. Take Denver (10*). | |||||||
01-19-21 | Jets v. Senators -103 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
NHL North Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Ottawa over Winnipeg at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the Senators on Tuesday night as they open a three-game set against the Jets. Winnipeg is in a tough spot here, playing the second of back-to-back nights following a 3-1 loss in Toronto on Monday. The Jets were without Patrik Laine in that one and it remains to be seen whether he'll be able to return on Tuesday. Winnipeg is off to a disjointed start to the season after it had a practice canceled on the weekend due to Covid concerns. Ottawa has been idle since Saturday, when it fell by a 3-2 score against the Maple Leafs. The Senators did look good in that season-opening set against the Leafs, splitting the two games. With that being said, after scoring five goals in their season-opening victory on Friday they were outshot badly on Saturday, leaving them in a key bounce back spot here. The future is bright in Ottawa even if it is unlikely to contend atop the North Division this season. I believe the Sens can continue to make some early season noise and catch the Jets at the right time here on Tuesday. Take Ottawa (10*). | |||||||
01-19-21 | Capitals v. Penguins -119 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Penguins got a much-needed victory by way of a shootout against the Capitals on Sunday afternoon and I look for them to pull back to .500 on the season with another win on Tuesday. Washington played a really tough road game on Sunday and has now come away with five of a possible six points despite having yet to play at home through three games this season. For Pittsburgh, its start couldn't have been any worse as it was dominated in consecutive games in Philadelphia. I don't believe the Pens will be satisfied with Sunday's win. They need to keep it going here and I'm confident they can. Note that they didn't get a single point from Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin in Sunday's win. It was their role players that stepped up and that should provide plenty of confidence entering this one. Take Pittsburgh (10*). | |||||||
01-18-21 | Wild v. Ducks +111 | 0-1 | Win | 111 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Anaheim over Minnesota at 9:05 pm et on Monday. The Ducks are coming off consecutive losses in Las Vegas but I did like the fight they showed in their last game, bouncing back from a blowout loss in their opener to grab a single point in an overtime loss. Minnesota is riding high off back-to-back overtime wins over the Kings but let's not get too excited just yet. I don't think the Kings are going to be very good this year, so those two victories may not turn out to be all that impressive. Wild rookie Kirill Kaprizov has been the story early on but I expect the Ducks to key on him on Monday night and ultimately pick up their first win of the season. Take Anaheim (10*). |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ricky Tran | $756 |
ProSportsPicks | $632 |
Joseph D'Amico | $510 |
Joey Tron | $450 |
Tom Macrina | $399 |
Nick Parsons | $344 |
Sean Murphy | $306 |
Jack Jones | $303 |
William Burns | $233 |
Dan Kaiser | $220 |