Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-18-18 | Broncos v. Cardinals +2.5 | Top | 45-10 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 3 m | Show |
NFL Thursday Night Game of the Month. My selection is on Arizona plus the points over Denver at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. I’ll back the Cardinals on Thursday night as they host the reeling Broncos. Arizona has certainly shown signs of turning things around over the last couple of weeks. Two games back, the Cardinals posted a 28-18 victory over an improving 49ers squad in San Francisco. Just last Sunday they battled the Vikings hard for 60 minutes, ultimately falling by 10 points, on the road no less. Now they return home and draw a favorable matchup against a Denver squad that can’t get out of its own way right now. The Broncos have lost four straight games, allowing at least 23 points in each of those losses. Meanwhile, their offense continues to lag, having scored 20 points or less in four of their last five contests. QB Case Keenum doesn’t look like the right fit for the offense, with some Broncos faithful calling for Chad Kelly to take over. Outside of WR Emmanuel Sanders I don’t see any of the Broncos having much of an edge against a still-capable Cardinals defense. On the flip side, Arizona RB David Johnson should face little resistance against a Broncos defense that has had no success at all stopping the run in recent weeks. Denver’s once-feared ‘no fly zone’ defense is no more. Chris Harris is essentially the lone bright spot in the Broncos secondary. While the Cardinals by no means have an elite WR corps, especially with veteran Larry Fitzgerald playing at well below 100% healthy, they’re still capable of stretching the field and exposing the Broncos secondary. Look for WR Christian Kirk to continue to build on his solid rapport with rookie QB Josh Rosen, helping pace the offense in what I believe will be a win for the Cardinals. Take Arizona (10*). | |||||||
10-18-18 | Georgia State v. Arkansas State OVER 56 | 35-51 | Win | 100 | 50 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Georgia State and Arkansas State at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. I’ll back the ‘over’ in Jonesboro on Thursday night. We had to settle for a push with the ‘under’ in Georgia State’s most recent game – a 37-20 road loss to Troy back on October 4th. That was certainly a tough draw for the Panthers against a good Troy defense. Here, they should face a lot less resistance against an Arkansas State defense that just got dismantled by Appalachian State last week. The Mountaineers got off to a sluggish start against the Red Wolves, but eventually settled in and scored three second quarter touchdowns before adding two more in the second half. Appalachian State essentially got whatever it wanted against this Arkansas State defense. One game before that we also saw the Red Wolves hold up well for a stretch before falling apart and allowing three touchdowns from five minutes remaining in the third quarter until the end of the game in a loss to Georgia Southern. Keep in mind, prior to the blowout loss at Troy, Georgia State scored 46 points in a rout of Louisiana-Monroe, finding the end zone four times in the first half alone. The problem for the Panthers has been their defense, which got lit up for three touchdowns before the game was just over a quarter old against Troy and also allowed 34 points or more in each contest during a three-game slide earlier this season. Arkansas State shot itself in the foot time and time again on offense against Appalachian State last week but should find the going much easier against Georgia State. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-16-18 | 76ers v. Celtics OVER 208.5 | 87-105 | Loss | -106 | 23 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Boston at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. I'm anticipating a high-scoring, back-and-forth affair between the 76ers and Celtics as the NBA regular season tips off on Tuesday night at TD Garden. We saw a relatively high-scoring playoff series between these two teams last spring and there's little reason to expect any sort of shift here. The 76ers appeared to be in midseason form offensively during the preseason while the Celtics were able to get Gordon Hayward and Kyrie Irving loose as they work their way back from long-term injuries. The C's are thought of as the team to beat in the Eastern Conference and I'm confident we'll see them come out and push the envelope against one of their biggest threats in the 76ers. I don't believe that slowing things down and drawing out possessions is in either team's DNA. I feel this total could have been set higher, and would likely still consider the 'over'. Look for higher numbers in games involving these two teams in the coming weeks. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-15-18 | 49ers v. Packers OVER 46 | 30-33 | Win | 100 | 24 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Francisco and Green Bay at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'over' at Lambeau Field on Monday night. Most have already written off the 49ers given all of their injuries, including the big one to QB Jimmy Garoppolo. Last week's home loss to the lowly Cardinals certainly did nothing to change that narrative. While I'm not high enough on the 'Niners to suggest grabbing the points with them here on Monday, I do expect them to do enough offensively to help this one 'over' the relatively low posted total. QB C.J. Beathard has actually performed admirably in a backup role here since the start of last season. Last week we saw him turn in a 300+ yard passing day, even with a number of his offensive weapons sidelined. What I like about Beathard is his ability to extend plays with his mobility. Note that he has scored a rushing touchdown in four of the eight games he's gotten into since the start of last year. The emergence of TE George Kittle has given the 49ers offense a different look this season and he should prove to be a handful for the Packers struggling defense on Monday. Even though he's still nursing a number of injuries, Packers QB Aaron Rodgers continues to bomb away and that's not going to change on Monday night. With the return of RB Aaron Jones the Packers do possess a more versatile offense than they did earlier this season, with three capable running backs to lean on. Like the 49ers, the Pack are also dealing with some key injuries on offense and at wide receiver in particular. I'm not really sure it matters all that much here though. Rodgers should be able to turn in one of his best stat lines of the season against a very beatable 49ers defense that hasn't had any success generating pressure on opposing quarterbacks or slowing down vertical aerial attacks. Look for a big night from Packers TE Jimmy Graham. It's also worth noting that the 'Niners are giving up well north of four yards per rush this season. This may not evolve into a true shootout, but I do believe the posted total will prove too low. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-14-18 | Chiefs v. Patriots -3 | Top | 40-43 | Push | 0 | 71 h 58 m | Show |
NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Year. My selection is on New England minus the points over Kansas City at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. This is a rematch of last year’s season-opener – a game the Chiefs won in blowout fashion right here in Foxborough. I expect a much different story to unfold this time around as the Patriots look to gain an ounce of revenge against Andy Reid’s undefeated squad. I like the way this one sets up for the Pats as they come off an extended week following their Thursday night win over the Colts. We’ve seen their offense evolve and improve over the early stages of the season and I’m confident we’ll see their best effort of the campaign to date on Sunday night against a very beatable Chiefs defense. New England welcomed WR Julian Edelman back to the field last week and he should continue to see his role increase as the weeks go on. In this game I actually expect to see the Patriots backfield take center stage with RBs James White and Sony Michel going off against a porous Chiefs defense. We have seen some chinks in the Chiefs offensive armor over the last couple of games, with the Broncos and Jaguars at least laying out somewhat of a blueprint as to how to slow down this juggernaut. This certainly has all the makings of a shootout, but in the end I like the Patriots to make a couple more big plays down the stretch and pull away for a win and cover. Take New England (10*). | |||||||
10-14-18 | Ravens v. Titans UNDER 42 | 21-0 | Win | 100 | 67 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Baltimore and Tennessee at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. We won with the ‘under’ in the Ravens overtime loss to the Browns last Sunday and I’ll go right back to the well with the same play this week as Baltimore stays on the road to face the Titans. This Baltimore defense continues to improve and welcomed back cornerback Jimmy Smith last week – a true gamechanger for this unit. I’m confident in Baltimore’s ability to limit a below average Titans offense here. Tennessee has topped out at 26 points this season, but that came two weeks ago against a depleted Eagles defense that has struggled in the early going. The good news is, the Titans do possess a terrific defense that is capable of containing a Ravens offense that has really only been able to bust out against bottom-tier defenses this season. We’ve seen Baltimore make headway against the likes of Buffalo, Denver and Pittsburgh. However, in its other two games against Cincinnati and Cleveland it managed to score a grand total of 32 points. Note that when these two teams met last season, the Titans prevailed by a 23-20 score. I believe both defenses are better this year and anticipate a lower-scoring affair as a result. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-14-18 | Rams v. Broncos OVER 51.5 | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -107 | 67 h 47 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Los Angeles and Denver at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. Even with the Rams injury concerns at the wide receiver position, and the Broncos struggles with Case Keenum under center, I’m still anticipating a shootout in Denver on Sunday afternoon. The Rams offense has a bit of a ‘next man up’ feel so even if Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp are unable to go, I still expect to see this unit put plenty of points on the board. Keep in mind, the Rams still have arguably the best running back in football in Todd Gurley, who should have a field day against a vulnerable Broncos run defense on Sunday afternoon. We successfully faded the Broncos on the road against the Jets last Sunday and the fact is, the final numbers put up by their offense actually made things look a lot better than they actually were, putting points on the board in garbage time. Here, I am expecting a strong bounce-back performance from the Denver offense as they draw a favorable matchup against a Rams defense that has had a miserable time slowing down opponents this season. While Los Angeles is certainly thought of as an elite team, deservingly so, it’s largely on the strength of its offense. Defensively, the Rams are missing key cogs and the personnel they have had on the field has not come close to living up to expectations. There’s little reason to expect a sudden turnaround as they stay on the road for the second straight week and face a highly-motivated Broncos offense. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-14-18 | Cardinals v. Vikings -10 | Top | 17-27 | Push | 0 | 64 h 52 m | Show |
NFL NFC Game of the Year. My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over Arizona at 1 pm et on Sunday. I absolutely love the way this spot sets up for the Vikings on Sunday afternoon. Minnesota’s offense has taken off since that embarrassing no-show at home against the Bills three weeks ago. Since then we’ve seen the Vikes march up and down the field against both the Rams and Eagles, managing to earn a 1-1 split. Now they return home to host a Cardinals squad that is coming off its first victory of the season, but that came against a weak 49ers squad last Sunday. Here, Arizona will face a much tougher challenge, staying on the road and heading two time zones east for an early start in Minnesota. The Vikings defense hasn’t been great this season but did turn in a fairly strong showing in Philadelphia last week and gets a favorable matchup here. If there’s one thing the Vikes have continued to do well it’s stop the run and that should serve them well as they prepare to face Cards RB David Johnson, who has shown some signs of life since QB Josh Rosen took over the offense. I don’t see how Arizona keeps within arm’s reach for four quarters without a passing game to speak of. Look for another big game from Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins as the Vikes roll at home. Take Minnesota (10*). | |||||||
10-14-18 | Colts v. Jets OVER 45 | 34-42 | Win | 100 | 64 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Indianapolis and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. I’ll back the ‘over’ in New Jersey on Sunday afternoon. The Colts defense has fallen back to Earth following a surprisingly strong start to the season. They check into this one having allowed over 30 points in back-to-back games and while things should get a little easier here, the Jets are coming off their best offensive showing of the season last week and could build off of that performance in this favorable matchup at home. QB Sam Darnold has shown plenty of positives in his rookie campaign and should be brimming with confidence after hitting a number of big plays against the Broncos once-feared pass defense last week. We saw WR Robby Anderson re-emerge in last week’s contest and I look for some carry-over from that performance as he continues to build chemistry with Darnold. On the flip side, the Colts offense has shown some progression with QB Andrew Luck getting back in rhythm with the offense. He did well to keep his team in the game against the Patriots last week. The Colts have been bombing away, so to speak, and I anticipate more of the same here this Sunday as Indianapolis could be playing from behind once again. The Jets defense isn’t scaring anyone these days. While the Colts are still missing WR T.Y. Hilton and TE Jack Doyle, they showed last week that they can still consistently move the football down the field with their short passing game. It’s that short game that should give the Jets some trouble on Sunday afternoon. We’re dealing with a relatively low total here due to the reputations these two teams carry as AFC also-rans. I see the game playing out differently. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-14-18 | Seahawks v. Raiders OVER 48 | 27-3 | Loss | -109 | 64 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Seattle and Oakland at 1 pm et on Sunday. It’s not easy to call for a shootout in a game involving the Raiders these days. They were absolutely manhandled by the Chargers last Sunday but do find themselves in a favorable spot here facing a Seahawks defense that is by no means a feared unit anymore. After giving RB Marshawn Lynch very little work in last week’s blowout loss, I do expect Oakland to go back to Lynch in this matchup against his former team and that should bode well for the Raiders offensive production. As for the Seahawks, I expect their offense to go off against a weak Raiders defense that hasn’t been able to stop the run, allowing over five yards per rush, nor has it been able to defend the deep ball, which plays right into the hands of this Seattle aerial attack. The Seahawks are of course back at full strength in their passing game with WR Doug Baldwin back on the field. He was virtually a non-factor in last week’s narrow loss to the Rams but should play a much bigger role this Sunday. Meanwhile, the Seahawks ground game has quietly emerged as a serious threat to opposing defenses and I’m confident we’ll see Chris Carson and Mike Davis run wild in this contest. This is a reasonably high posted total for a ‘London game’ but I do believe it’s warranted. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-14-18 | Seahawks -2.5 v. Raiders | 27-3 | Win | 100 | 64 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle minus the points over Oakland at 1 pm et on Sunday. I’m confident we’ll see the Seahawks take care of business as they head across the pond to face the lowly Raiders on Sunday. Oakland showed signs of life in a come-from-behind win over the Browns two weeks ago but couldn’t follow it up last Sunday, falling in blowout fashion against the Chargers. Don’t count on a big bounce-back performance here as I see this as a terrible matchup for the Raiders defense against the Seahawks emerging offense. Seattle QB Russell Wilson still isn’t at full strength, showing little scrambling ability, at least compared to what we’ve seen from him in years’ past. But the good news is, his arm is fine, as he continues to march the offense up and down the field. We saw the Seattle passing game give the Rams big problems last week and there’s little reason to expect anything different against Oakland. Meanwhile, the Seahawks ground game should have little trouble carving up a Raiders run defense that allows over five yards per rush this season. Seattle no longer has an elite defense, but I do think it will make just enough plays to contribute to a win and cover on Sunday afternoon in London. Take Seattle (10*). | |||||||
10-14-18 | Bucs v. Falcons OVER 57 | 29-34 | Win | 100 | 52 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Tampa Bay and Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday. This is the game that will likely have fantasy owners scrambling to pick up Bucs QB Jameis Winston. Tampa Bay will turn to Winston on Sunday afternoon in Atlanta and he draws an extremely favorable matchup in his first start back. I may sound like a broken record playing Falcons ‘overs’ seemingly every week but if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. The Atlanta defense remains depleted and faces another opponent that won’t hesitate to go vertical on them all afternoon long. With little semblance of a running game, the Bucs will likely bomb away and find success doing so. On the flip side, the Falcons offense is coming off a bit of a stinker last week in Pittsburgh. They were able to move the football but ultimately couldn’t put points on the board, but should rebound against a Bucs defense that has shown absolutely zero ability to slow down opposing passing games. Tampa Bay’s main focus is on stopping the run, and it has done a good job of limiting opposing backs. However, the Bucs secondary is bottom of the barrel and will certainly have its hands full against the Falcons loaded receiving corps. We’re dealing with a very high posted total in this one, but it’s warranted in my opinion. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-14-18 | Steelers v. Bengals UNDER 52.5 | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 52 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Pittsburgh and Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. Most are expecting a shootout between these two high-scoring division rivals on Sunday afternoon in Cincinnati but these AFC North slugfests rarely play out that way (the most recent meeting between these two teams went 23-20 in favor of the Steelers) and I anticipate more of the same this week. The Steelers were in an absolutely beautiful spot last week, hosting a depleted Falcons defense, at home no less. Not surprisingly, they had their way with Atlanta offensively (we won with the Steelers and the over) but should face a considerably tougher challenge on the road against the Bengals on Sunday. Cincinnati is coming off a strong defensive showing last week, absolutely shutting the Dolphins down after digging an early hole, allowing the offense to rally before notching a late defensive score. I look for some carry-over from that second half performance here. Keep in mind, the Bengals defense has gotten stronger, particularly against the run, with the return of LB Vontaze Burfict. Pittsburgh’s defense had been getting torched repeatedly prior to last week’s bounce-back performance against the Falcons. That effort should bode well for this group as it prepares to face a somewhat underrated Bengals offense on Sunday afternoon. Both teams may very well get into the 20’s in this contest, but I believe the lofty posted total will simply prove too high. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-13-18 | Colorado v. USC UNDER 58 | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 60 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Colorado and USC at 10:30 pm et on Saturday. We saw a fairly high-scoring game between these two teams last season as USC pulled out a 38-24 victory in early November. I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday night as both defenses should come to play in this important Pac-12 matchup. We won with the ‘under’ in the Buffaloes 28-21 win over Arizona State last Saturday and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. In that game, Colorado held Arizona State off the scoreboard from 13 minutes remaining in the third quarter onward. It was another strong showing for the Buffaloes offense with the Montez to Shenault connection coming up big. I do believe USC is capable of slowing that duo down on Saturday night, however. The Trojans manhandled Arizona, on the road no less, last Saturday, holding the Wildcats scoreless until midway through the third quarter in an eventual 24-20 victory. There are still concerns when it comes to the USC offense, however, noting that the Trojans didn’t score again after Aca’Cedric Ware’s long touchdown run in the first five minutes of the third quarter against a weak Arizona defense. After narrowly escaping with a wild 39-36 victory over Washington State in their most recent home game, the Trojans would be wise to avoid another shootout here. Colorado has scored a whopping 78 points in two road games this season, but those came against weak defensive opponents in Colorado State and Nebraska (and the first of those games wasn’t really a true road game as it was played at Sports Authority Field at Mile High in Denver). Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-13-18 | Middle Tennessee State v. Florida International -2.5 | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 57 h 17 m | Show |
NCAAF C-USA Game of the Year. My selection is on Florida International minus the points over Middle Tennessee State at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. It’s been a roller-coaster ride for Florida International this season, both on and off the field but based on its play over the last several weeks, it does appear to be on the right track. The Panthers have just one loss over their last four games, and that came in respectable fashion (31-17) on the road against Miami. Considering the Panthers last game was a 55-9 walk over Arkansas-Pine Bluff back on September 29th, they should enter this contest rested and ready. Middle Tennessee State on the other hand is coming off two hard-fought wins over Florida Atlantic (we won with the Blue Raiders in that game) and Marshall. Those were two much-needed victories for the Blue Raiders but now I’m anticipating a bit of a letdown. Keep in mind, FIU will be looking to avenge a 37-17 blowout loss at the hands of MTSU last season. I believe the Blue Raiders have been rather fortunate to pull out wins in their last two games, first needing a late rally to overcome a two-touchdown deficit against Florida Atlantic and then digging a 17-10 halftime hole against Marshall last week. It’s worth noting that the Blue Raiders managed only one first half touchdown against the Thundering Herd and it came with just over one minute remaining before halftime. There’s not a lot separating the Blue Raiders and Panthers right now, but I believe FIU is in better position to grab its fourth victory of the season on Saturday night. Take Florida International (10*). | |||||||
10-13-18 | Missouri v. Alabama UNDER 74 | Top | 10-39 | Win | 100 | 57 h 46 m | Show |
NCAAF TV Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Missouri and Alabama at 7 pm et on Saturday. It’s not easy playing the ‘under’ in games involving the Alabama Crimson Tide but here we are on Saturday night. ‘Bama has some things to clean up after allowing 31 points in another blowout win over Arkansas last week. I fully expect to see the Crimson Tide come out and play a near-flawless brand of defensive football on Saturday night, even against a tough offensive opponent in Missouri. Keep in mind, while the Tide did give up 31 points against Arkansas, it held the Hogs to only two touchdowns through the game’s first three quarters. It wasn’t until things were completely out of hand that the Tide softened up, relatively speaking. We did cash an ‘over’ ticket in a game involving Missouri back on September 22nd – a 43-29 home loss to Georgia. It is worth nothing, however, that the Tigers scored a touchdown with two minutes remaining in the first quarter but then were held out of the end zone until midway through the third quarter. That was actually a relatively low-scoring game early on that turned on a couple of first half defensive scores by Georgia. While there’s certainly a good chance the Tide defense does some scoring on Saturday night, it’s not really something that we can truly account for. Even last week against South Carolina, Missouri scored two touchdowns before the first quarter was 11 minutes old but then didn’t reach the end zone again until the fourth quarter. The Tigers defense has been pretty bad this season but has shown the ability to hold up for stretches. Going back to the Georgia game, they didn’t’ allow the Bulldogs to score an offensive touchdown until nearly four minutes into the third quarter. ‘Bama rolled to a 42-13 win the last time these two teams met back in 2014. A similar outcome isn’t outside the realm of possibility on Saturday night. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-13-18 | Virginia Tech v. North Carolina UNDER 57.5 | 22-19 | Win | 100 | 57 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Virginia Tech and North Carolina at 7 pm et on Saturday. I’ll back the ‘under’ in Chapel Hill on Saturday night. The Hokies are fresh off a relatively high-scoring affair against an emerging Notre Dame offense last week but I expect to see the scoring settle down here. Remember, just two games back, the Hokies held Duke to just one touchdown through the first three quarters in a 31-14 victory, on the road no less. This is also the team that opened the season with a positively dominant defensive performance on the road against Florida State, delivering a 24-3 victory (we won with the ‘under’ in that game). Sure, there was the anomaly against Old Dominion – a game in which the Hokies suffered an inexplicable fourth quarter defensive collapse – but I’m willing to give them a mulligan for that one. This is a spot where the Hokies need to show up and I’m confident they will, on the defensive side of the football at least. North Carolina has been involved in one shootout this season – a 38-35 home win over Pittsburgh back on September 22nd. Outside of that, we’ve seen the Tar Heels offense struggle. Last time out they suffered a 47-10 loss at Miami (we won with the ‘over’) with the offense looking completely out of sync and unsure of itself at times. This isn’t an ideal ‘get right’ spot by any means. I will point out that the Tar Heels defense did hang in against Miami, in spite of the lopsided final score. They allowed just two offensive touchdowns through the first three plus quarters of that game and only three in total over the full 60 minutes. They’ll be taking a step down in class against the Hokies offense here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-13-18 | Pittsburgh v. Notre Dame UNDER 55 | 14-19 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Pittsburgh and Notre Dame at 2:30 pm et on Saturday. With Notre Dame coming off three straight relatively high-scoring games and Pitt fresh off a wild, high-scoring overtime win over Syracuse last Saturday (we won with the ‘over’ in that game), we’re dealing with a rather high posted total in advance of this matchup in South Bend on Saturday. I believe the total will prove too high. After getting off to a rough start defensively last week, Pitt did settle down, keeping Syracuse out of the end zone from six minutes remaining in the first quarter until nearly midway through the third quarter. On the flip side, however, the Panthers scored a touchdown with just under six minutes left in the first quarter but then the offense didn’t reach the end zone again until the first minute of the third quarter. It’s also worth noting that the Panthers kept the Orange out of the end zone for the entire fourth quarter and overtime. Notre Dame delivered a 45-23 knockout blow at Virginia Tech last Saturday night. I will point out that the Irish scored a touchdown six minutes into the game but then didn’t put another offensive touchdown on the board until three minutes into the third quarter. They gave up just one touchdown in the second quarter and then didn’t allow another until the game was all but out of hand over halfway through the fourth quarter. The last meeting between these two programs was a shootout but that was back in 2015. Expect a different story to unfold on Saturday. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-13-18 | Troy v. Liberty OVER 63.5 | 16-22 | Loss | -107 | 52 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Troy and Liberty at 2 pm et on Saturday. I’ll back the ‘over’ in Lynchburg on Saturday afternoon. We settled for a push with the ‘under’ in Troy’s most recent game – a 37-20 win over Georgia State last Thursday night. There’s no denying the Trojans offensive ability as they scored at will both early and late in that victory over the Panthers. Now they draw a matchup with a Liberty squad that is quite simply built for shootouts. Its last two games have reached 95 and 90 total points against New Mexico and New Mexico State. It will obviously be facing a tougher defensive test against the Trojans, but I still feel Liberty will be up for the challenge. Note that it got off to a sluggish start last week, which was perhaps to be expected after scoring 52 points in an upset win the week earlier. Once the Flames got rolling in the second half they managed to find the end zone on four different occasions. I don’t believe Troy will shy away from another shootout here. It seems that the Trojans are getting better offensively with each passing week. While they’ve scored a whopping 82 points in notching back-to-back home wins over the last two weeks, they also scored 35 points (all coming in the first half) in their last road game against Louisiana-Monroe. With Liberty possessing one of the nation’s worst defenses, this has all the makings of a high-scoring, back-and-forth affair on Saturday afternoon. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-13-18 | Duke v. Georgia Tech UNDER 55 | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 50 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Duke and Georgia Tech at 12:20 pm et on Saturday. Duke steamrolled Georgia Tech by a 43-20 score in last year’s meeting. The Blue Devils find themselves in an underdog role in the same matchup this Saturday, despite their 4-1 overall record. Rather than focus on the side, I’ll call for a lower-scoring game than the betting marketplace is anticipating. Unlike past editions of the Blue Devils, this year’s squad can play some defense. They’ve allowed 14 points or less in three of five games so far, but are coming off a 31-14 setback at home against Virginia Tech last time out. They’ve had an extra week to regroup following that loss and I fully expect them to rebound with a strong effort here. It seemed in that game against the Hokies, the Blue Devils hung tough early, limiting Virginia Tech to just a single field goal in the first quarter before grabbing a lead and letting down their guard. Keep in mind, earlier this season we saw Duke go on the road against a good Baylor offense and hold the Bears scoreless for the entire first half and gave up just one offensive touchdown through the first three quarters. The Blue Devils familiarity with the Yellow Jackets’ option-based offense will certainly help their cause here. We missed the mark with the ‘under’ in Georgia Tech’s last game – a wild 66-31 shootout victory over Louisville last Friday night. The Yellow Jackets have now scored 60+ points in back-to-back games but I don’t see them coming close to reaching that level of offensive production here. Remember, the Jackets were held to just 40 points combined in back-to-back losses to Pitt and Clemson earlier this season. They took full advantage of a Louisville squad that simply didn’t show up last week – something they won’t be afforded against what will be a hungry Blue Devils team in a bounce-back spot here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-13-18 | Florida v. Vanderbilt UNDER 50.5 | 37-27 | Loss | -108 | 50 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Florida and Vanderbilt at 12 noon et on Saturday. This is a bit of a tricky spot for Florida, on the heels of four straight victories, including a big 27-19 win over rival LSU last Saturday, it hits the road to face a Vanderbilt squad that will be eager to bounce back from a poor showing at Georgia last week. The Gators haven’t given up much defensively this season. Even in their lone loss at Kentucky they allowed just one first half touchdown and with the game hanging in the balance held the Wildcats scoreless from four minutes left in the third quarter until allowing a defensive fumble return for a touchdown on the game’s final play. Last week against LSU, Florida gave up a touchdown in the game’s first four minutes but then didn’t allow the Tigers to sniff the end zone again until a few minutes into the fourth quarter. Now they face a limited Vandy offense that didn’t score a touchdown until two seconds remaining in the game at Georgia last week, at which point the Bulldogs defense wasn’t really all that interested. Even two games back at home against FCS squad Tennessee State, Vandy didn’t score a touchdown until four minutes into the second quarter. I do expect the Commodores defense to show up for this one, however. They actually hung tough with the Bulldogs for much of the first half last week, only suffering a lapse on a 75-yard touchdown catch early in the first quarter before getting sloppy again on Georgia’s final drive of the opening half. We did cash an ‘under’ ticket in the Commodores 22-17 loss at Notre Dame back in early September. I can’t help but feel that this situation sets up similarly. Vandy will be overmatched talent-wise, but might just catch the Gators lacking a real ‘killer instinct’, which would play into our hands with an ‘under’ ticket in hand as far as I’m concerned. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-12-18 | Air Force v. San Diego State UNDER 46.5 | Top | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 60 h 7 m | Show |
NCAAF Mountain West Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Air Force and San Diego State at 9 pm et on Friday. I’ll back the ‘under’ in San Diego on Friday night. This hasn’t exactly been a low-scoring series in recent years but I expect to see a different story unfold this time around. Air Force is coming off a dominant 35-7 win over Navy. It is worth noting that the Falcons didn’t find the end zone until over midway through the second quarter in that game. Even in a wild 42-32 loss at Utah State two games back, Air Force scored two second quarter touchdowns but then didn’t reach the end zone again until the fourth quarter. Earlier this season against Florida Atlanta (we won with AFA and the ‘under’ in that game) the Falcons didn’t score a touchdown until there were less than three minutes remaining in the first half. You get the picture. Now the Falcons go on the road to face a stout San Diego State defense that is coming off its most impressive performance of the season, defeating Boise State by a 19-13 score last Saturday, on the road no less. Over the course of its current four-game winning streak, San Diego State has given up a grand total of just 68 points. With that being said, the Aztecs offense hasn’t exactly been a juggernaut. They’ve yet to score more than 28 points in a game this season. Of note, in a 28-14 win over FCS squad Sacramento State earlier this season, the Aztecs scored a touchdown with a little under six minutes left in the first quarter but then didn’t reach the end zone again until the game’s final four minutes. Two games back at home against Eastern Michigan, the Aztecs managed only two touchdowns, both coming in the second quarter. In other words, both of these squads are prone to extended touchdown droughts. While we are dealing with a relatively low total, I believe it is warranted. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-11-18 | Eagles v. Giants OVER 43.5 | Top | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 24 h 30 m | Show |
NFL NFC East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and New York at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'over' in the Giants last second loss at Carolina last Sunday while missing the mark with the 'over' in the Eagles home loss to the Vikings. I'll stay the course and call for the 'over' again as this matchup has shootout potential on Thursday night. The Eagles offense didn't look particularly sharp last Sunday against Minnesota but it may have been a case of the wrong place at the wrong time as the Vikes were bent on revenge after falling in last year's NFC Championship Game and were coming off an extended week following a tough Thursday night loss to the Rams in Los Angeles, in which their defense got lit up. Here the Eagles will draw a Giants defense that hasn't had any answers for opposing offenses this season due to injuries and otherwise. The G-Men will get Olivier Vernon back this week but all indications are that he'll be on a limited snap count. In the last eight meetings in this series, the Giants have allowed 27, 34, 27, 35, 23, 24, 27 and 34 points. As for the Giants offense, we've seen them turning things around lately, scoring at least 27 points in two of their last three games. The Eagles defense is injury-ravaged and has had its hands full with Eli Manning and co. at the best of times in recent years. I've been one of Manning's biggest critics but there's no denying we saw plenty of positives in last week's shootout loss to the Panthers. It does seem as if the G-Men are finally figuring out ways to move the football with all of that star power on offense. With Rodney McLeod sidelined and now his replacement Corey Graham on the shelf as well, Philadelphia is in a tough spot trying to defend the pass. Regardless who falls behind in this game there's certainly 'bomb away' potential against these defenses. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-11-18 | Texas Tech v. TCU UNDER 62.5 | Top | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 55 h 14 m | Show |
NCAAF Big 12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Texas Tech and TCU at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. This one will be billed as a shootout but I’m not convinced that’s how the story will unfold on Thursday night in Fort Worth. Texas Tech is coming off a wild, high-scoring affair against West Virginia back on September 29th. With a posted total in the mid-70s for that one, it certainly had all the makings of a shootout and played out precisely that way. I will point out, however, after giving up four first quarter touchdowns the Red Raiders did hold the Mountaineers to just one offensive touchdown the rest of the way. Offensively, Texas Tech could only muster one first half touchdown of its own. Two games back the Red Raiders posted an impressive 42-17 win at Oklahoma State, allowing just two first half touchdowns before shutting out the Cowboys the rest of the way. I certainly would not expect TCU to get involved in many shootouts of its own this season. There was a 40-28 loss to Ohio State back on September 15th (we missed with the ‘under’ in that game) but that contest included two defensive scores by the Buckeyes. The next week, the Horned Frogs were completely manhandled by Texas (we won with the ‘under’ in that game) and last time out they had to settle for a narrow 17-14 win over Iowa State at home on September 29th. Keep in mind, last year’s matchup between these two teams totaled only 30 points as the Horned Frogs won in a walk, 27-3. Both teams enter this game rested and ready and I believe that lends itself to a lower-scoring game than the oddsmakers are calling for. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-11-18 | Oilers v. Bruins OVER 6 | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Edmonton and Boston at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. I get the feeling we're going to see a lot of games involving the Bruins play out like their 6-3 victory over Ottawa on Monday. Here Boston has another opportunity to flex its offensive muscle against an Oilers squad that won't shy away from a back-and-forth affair. Edmonton started its season overseas and suffered a 5-2 loss to the Devils. Cam Talbot wasn't good between the pipes for the Oilers last season and his 2018-19 opener certainly didn't go well either (he gave up four goals). I do at the very least expect to see the Oilers stick around in this game on the strength of their offense. The Bruins have sandwiched two fairly poor showings in their own end of the rink with a shutout win over Buffalo. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-09-18 | Flames +158 v. Predators | Top | 3-0 | Win | 158 | 24 h 3 m | Show |
NHL Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Calgary over Nashville at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Flames as they try to move above the .500 mark here in the early stages of the season. Calgary opened its campaign with an ugly 5-2 loss at Vancouver. I use the term 'ugly' loosely, however, noting that the final score may have been lopsided, but the Flames actually outshot the Canucks 35-23 in that game and played a solid road game, giving up just one power play. Calgary's big problem was its inability to cash in on its own power play opportunities, going 0-for-7. The Flames did sort out those issues in a hurry, however, converting on 3-of-6 power play chances in Saturday's rematch against the Canucks - a game they won by a 7-4 score. The Predators are off to a perfect 2-0 start after notching a pair of victories in New York against the Rangers and Islanders. Now they return to Nashville for their home opener and I can see them suffering a bit of a letdown. Note that there's no intimidation factor at play here at all as the Flames have skated away victorious in six of their last seven games here in Nashville. Take Calgary (10*). | |||||||
10-09-18 | Appalachian State v. Arkansas State +9.5 | 35-9 | Loss | -101 | 23 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arkansas State plus the points over Appalachian State at 8 pm et on Tuesday. I'll grab all the points I can get with the Red Wolves as they try to avoid an 0-2 hole in Sun Belt play on Tuesday night against Appalachian State. The Mountaineers will certainly pose a stiff challenge as they check in 3-1 SU on the season with their lone loss coming in overtime at Penn State back in Week 1. They haven't really been tested since that contest, rolling to blowout wins over Charlotte, Gardner Webb and South Alabama. They will face a challenge here, however, with Arkansas State widely considered a top contender for the Sun Belt crown this year. The Red Wolves dropped their conference opener at Georgia Southern last time out but there was no real shame in that loss. Georgia Southern is a quality team that remains vastly overlooked and underrated. Arkansas State had now answers for the Eagles option-based offense and will welcome facing a more conventional offensive attack here against Appalachian State. The Mountaineers are a perfect 4-0 ATS so far this season. Note that they didn't notch their fifth ATS victory last year until the final week of the regular season on December 2nd. In 2016 they didn't pick up their fifth ATS win until October 27th. So it's not as if this is a program that has been enjoying a ton of ATS success in recent years. I simply feel that Arkansas State will be the more desperate football team on Tuesday night and can at the very least take this game down to the wire. Take Arkansas State (10*). | |||||||
10-08-18 | Redskins v. Saints UNDER 52.5 | Top | 19-43 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 12 m | Show |
NFL MNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and New Orleans at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' at the Superdome on Monday night. The Redskins have given up yardage in big chunks on the ground this season but that's by design as they're willing to give up rushing yards and focus on stopping the pass. That should actually serve them well against the explosive Saints offense on Monday night. Note that New Orleans will get RB Mark Ingram back from suspension on Monday which could certainly lead to the Saints being a little more run-oriented. The Saints defense has finally shown some signs of life after a miserable start to the season. They were tough on the Giants last week, on the road no less, and keep in mind, New York scored 30+ points yesterday in Carolina. Here, the Saints draw a manageable matchup as the Redskins offense isn't going to scare anyone. QB Alex Smith has yet to get completely in sync with the offense and Washington has proven rather one-dimensional over its last couple of games (after Adrian Peterson turned back the clock in Week 1 against Arizona). I simply feel that we'll see plenty of long, clock-eating drives in this contest. I'm not convinced that the lofty total is warranted. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-07-18 | Cowboys +3.5 v. Texans | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 58 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Houston at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. The Texans finally notched a victory last week but it didn't come easy as they outlasted the Colts by a 37-34 score in overtime. Now they return home in a favored role against the Cowboys - another team that has struggled in the early going this season. I'll grab the points with Dallas in this spot as I simply feel the 'Boys have a little more upside right now. Houston's secondary has been decimated by injuries going all the way back to the summer. The latest to go down was cornerback Aaron Colvin, leaving a gaping hole should the Cowboys choose to exploit it. Of course, there are questions whether Dallas is capable of taking advantage of such a weakness. I actually feel this game will be more about QB Dak Prescott utilizing RB Ezekiel Elliott in the passing game. We can expect the Cowboys to employ a clock-chewing gameplan on offense while leaving the rest to their underrated defense which gets back DL David Irving from suspension this week. Without LB Sean Lee the Cowboys are certainly vulnerable against the run, but do the Texans have the personnel in place to take advantage? I'm not so sure. Meanwhile, the Dallas secondary has been tough and simply doesn't give up big plays. That is key as the 'Boys try to contain a Texans offense that relies on those big plays through the air to WRs DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller (not to mention Keke Coutee who made a big splash in his debut last week). Take Dallas (10*). | |||||||
10-07-18 | Cowboys v. Texans UNDER 45.5 | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 58 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Houston at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. Perhaps the fact that both of these teams were involved in relatively high-scoring games last week, certainly higher-scoring than expected, is resulting in us dealing with a rather lofty posted total in advance of this Sunday night showdown. Whatever the case, I'll back the 'under' as I don't have a great deal of faith in either offense right now. The Cowboys will do their best to churn out long, clock-eating drives on offense again this week, centring around RB Ezekiel Elliott. While I do believe the Texans have their weaknesses defensively, most of those lie in the secondary where they are ravaged by injuries. Their run defense has actually been stout, giving up just 3.6 yards per rush this season. And the question remains whether the Cowboys are capable of exposing any secondary, no matter how depleted, with their often lifeless passing game. The Dallas defense doesn't get nearly enough credit, mainly because it's been overshadowed by the issues on offense. Even without LB Sean Lee, the 'Boys still possess a solid defense across the board and one that will only get better with the return of DL David Irving from suspension this week. Lee's absence is mainly felt against the run but the Texans backfield is average at best. It's through the air where the Cowboys will need to be on their toes defending but I like the way their secondary matches up against the Texans strong wide receiving corps led by DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller. The last time these two teams met in 2014 we saw only 37 total points. That has little bearing on the outcome of this week's game but I'm anticipating another relatively low-scoring affair. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-07-18 | Rams -7 v. Seahawks | Top | 33-31 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 57 m | Show |
NFL Blowout Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Seattle at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. This has all the makings of a beatdown in favor of the undefeated Rams on Sunday afternoon in Seattle. First of all, Los Angeles has had an extra few days to prepare for this matchup following last week's impressive home win over the Vikings. You can be sure that head coach Sean McVay has some tricks up his sleeve as he'll see this as a big challenge playing in a hostile environment in Seattle and matching wits with a Super Bowl-winning head coach in Pete Carroll. The case can be made that QB Jared Goff has been the league's best quarterback so far this season which is really saying something given how well we've seen some of the veterans and young arms alike perform in the early going. There's little reason to expect any regression from Goff and the Rams offense here as they face a Seahawks defense that certainly isn't what it once was, and just lost safety Earl Thomas to a broken leg. The question is whether the Rams defense can hold up well enough against a highly-motivated Seahawks offense that has shown some improvement and welcomed back WR Doug Baldwin last week. My answer to that is, I'm not sure it matters how well the Seahawks offense performs as the Rams should do enough damage themselves to ultimately stretch out the margin in this one. Keep in mind, Seattle QB Russell Wilson has been admirable in his efforts but hasn't looked like the same dual-threat quarterback and continues to perform behind a leaky offensive line. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
10-07-18 | Vikings v. Eagles OVER 46 | Top | 23-21 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 45 m | Show |
NFL NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Philadelphia at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the Vikings loss to the Rams last Thursday night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Entering the season most believed Minnesota's defense would be one of the best in the league but that simply hasn't been the case, due to injuries and otherwise. The Rams absolutely exposed the Vikings defense (if it hadn't been already) last week and I expect to see plenty of carry-over from that miserable performance against the Eagles this Sunday. Philadelphia continues to work QB Carson Wentz back into the fold and we saw considerable progression from him last week against the Titans. That was despite facing a Tennessee defense that has applied a ton of pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Despite their reputation, I don't believe the Vikes will have much success putting Wentz under duress here. I'm anticipating a big game from Eagles WRs Nelson Agholor and Alshon Jeffery in particular as they should have little trouble finding open field against what has become a porous Minnesota secondary. This is obviously a bit of a desperation spot for the Vikings who are quickly seeing their season crumble before them. With that in mind, we can expect them to throw everything they have at the Eagles, and that has to start with their offense, which is certainly capable of operating at a high level, just as we saw last Thursday night against the Rams. QB Kirk Cousins should be able to find success bombing away against an Eagles pass defense that continues to struggle without corner Rodney McLeod. The Eagles have been much tougher against the run but the Vikes haven't shown much interest in running the football anyway and there's a good chance they'll be playing from behind for much of the game on Sunday, leading to a lot more looks for stud WRs Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-07-18 | Rams v. Seahawks OVER 50 | 33-31 | Win | 100 | 54 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Seattle at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'over' at CenturyLink Field on Sunday afternoon. We've actually won with the 'over' in each of the Rams last two contests and there's absolutely no reason to switch gears here. It seems impossible, but the Rams offense is actually getting better with each passing week. It feels like ages ago that we saw them sputter in the early going against the Raiders in Week 1. Now they look like a fine-tuned machine and with an extra few days to prepare for this matchup against a depleted Seahawks defense I fully expect a big performance across the board. There are concerns worth noting on the Rams defense, however. Cornerback Aqib Talib remains sidelined and while fellow corner Marcus Peters has managed to stay on the field he hasn't looked healthy and has subsequently gotten burned on a number of occasions over the last couple of weeks. Los Angeles should be able to score at will against the Earl Thomas-less Seattle defense but I don't believe it will be the only team putting points on the board on Sunday afternoon. Seattle did welcome back WR Doug Baldwin last week and in his absence Tyler Lockett carved out a nice role in this offense as well. Likely playing from behind most of the day, I expect the Seahawks to all but abandon their running game and more passing certainly helps our cause with the 'over'. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-07-18 | Raiders v. Chargers OVER 52.5 | Top | 10-26 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 33 m | Show |
NFL AFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Oakland and Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I've seen enough evolution from the Raiders offense to warrant a play on the 'over' as they make the short trip to Los Angeles to face the Chargers on Sunday afternoon. Oakland certainly didn't shy away from a shootout at home against the Browns last week, moving the football at will against an up-and-coming Cleveland defines. QB Derek Carr has turned things around over the last couple of weeks following a miserable start to the season. He certainly appears to be getting comfortable with veteran WR Jordy Nelson in the slot and last week we saw flashes of big play ability on a couple of ultimately failed hook-ups with WR Martavis Bryant. I like the matchups that Bryant and WR Amari Cooper draw against the Chargers secondary this week. Los Angeles will continue to struggle to keep opposing offenses at bay as long as LB Joey Bosa is sidelined and now will have to press on without another one of their top defenders in LB Kyzir White as well. Meanwhile, there's little reason to believe the Raiders defense will have any answers for the Chargers versatile offense. QB Philip Rivers likely won't have to worry about any sort of pressure on Sunday afternoon as no team has recorded fewer sacks than the Raiders this season. Look for Rivers to have a field day slinging the ball all over the field to his talented group of wide receivers. RB Melvin Gordon doesn't get enough credit for the work he does - perhaps overshadowed by another elite RB in the same city in Todd Gurley. Oakland checks in allowing almost six yards per rush and should also struggle to cover Gordon in the passing game. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-07-18 | Ravens v. Browns UNDER 46 | 9-12 | Win | 100 | 51 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Baltimore and Cleveland at 1 pm et on Sunday. This is a bit of a tough spot for the Ravens playing their second straight division road game after posting an "upset" win in Pittsburgh last Sunday night. That probably wasn't really an upset at all as the Steelers continue to struggle in the early going this season. I do like the fact that Baltimore is catching Cleveland coming back across the country following a big missed opportunity in Oakland last Sunday afternoon. Baltimore continues to get healthier on defense, having welcomed back two of its best run-stoppers in LB C.J. Mosley and DT Michael Pierce last week. Now the Ravens will also get their top corner Jimmy Smith back from suspension and he should make an immediate impact against a Browns offense that probably isn't quite as good as it looked in last week's track meet in Oakland. Offensively, the Ravens have been generally solid but you really never know what you're going to get from QB Joe Flacco. The Browns defense certainly isn't as bad as it looked against the Raiders last Sunday. They seemed to wilt under the pressure of playing with sizeable leads, something they likely won't be afforded this week. A return home should certainly help their cause on the defensive side of the football as well. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-07-18 | Broncos v. Jets UNDER 42.5 | 16-34 | Loss | -109 | 51 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Jets saw their two-game 'under' streak end last week in Jacksonville but it had nothing to do with their own offense. They were held to 17 points or less for a third straight game in that loss and while the Broncos do have some holes they can exploit on defense I'm just not sure they have the personnel in place to take advantage. On the flip side, I am confident we'll see a far better performance from the Jets defense than we did in Jacksonville, noting that they'll catch the Broncos traveling on a short week to play an early start Sunday matchup on the east coast. Denver continues to struggle to score with QB Case Keenum looking more and more like he may not be the right fit in this offense, or simply not capable of being an every-week starting QB in the NFL. Some of his misses were glaring on Monday night, most notably his sideline pass to a wide-open WR Demariyus Thomas that would have likely resulted in a game-winning touchdown. While I do like some of the pieces the Broncos have in place on offense, they lack explosiveness and the ability to string together scoring drives. Note that Denver has scored 23 points or less in all three games since opening the season with a 27-point performance (helped along by three key turnovers) against a depleted Seahawks defense. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-07-18 | Giants v. Panthers OVER 43.5 | 31-33 | Win | 100 | 51 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Carolina at 1 pm et on Sunday. There's little reason to expect the Giants to offer any resistance against a steadily improving Panthers offense on Sunday afternoon in Charlotte. New York has been ravaged by injuries on the defensive side of the football and were it not for a number of mistakes from the Saints offense in the red zone in the first half of last week's game, it easily could have given up 40+ points. That's certainly concerning as the Giants hit the road to face a Panthers squad that is coming off their bye week. I'm not sure we'll need all that much from the Giants offense to get 'over' this very reasonable posted total. With that being said, in spite of Eli Manning's presence, I do believe the G-Men can put together at least a couple of touchdown drives, as they do draw some favorable matchups, most notably for WRs Odell Beckham Jr. and Sterling Shepard. Meanwhile, RB Saquon Barkley is without question a stud and regardless the matchup should be able to get his in this contest. Note that the Panthers are giving up well north of five yards per rush this season. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-07-18 | Giants v. Panthers -6 | 31-33 | Loss | -108 | 51 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Carolina minus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll lay the points with the Panthers as they get back on the field following their bye week with an ideal matchup. Were it not for the Saints stumbling in the red zone early in last week's game, the result could have been much worse for the Giants. It was bad enough as it was with the Saints ultimately pulling away for a 33-18 victory. Things won't get any easier for the New York defense here as it hits the road to face a Panthers offense that continues to evolve and improve, and one that will be getting some help on the offensive line with the return of RG Trai Turner. CB Janoris Jenkins is largely considered the only good thing the Giants have going for them on defense given all of their key injuries but even he has been lit up lately. Until the G-Men find a capable quarterback, they will struggle to contend in shootouts such as the one they're likely to get involved in on Sunday. Yes, they have a ton of star power and certainly talent across the board, but Manning continues to hold this unit back. While the Panthers defense is beatable, I'm just not sure the G-Men can put enough points to stay within arm's reach for four quarters on Sunday afternoon. Take Carolina (10*). | |||||||
10-07-18 | Broncos v. Jets +1 | 16-34 | Win | 100 | 51 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Denver at 1 pm et on Sunday. I really like the way this situation sets up for the Jets as they come off an ugly loss in Jacksonville last week but catch the Broncos playing on a short week following a big missed opportunity against the divisional rival Chiefs on Monday night. Denver has shown positive flashes on offense but it's becoming more and more clear that QB Case Keenum may not be the right fit. Keenum missed on a number of throws on Monday night - none more glaring than the sideline route to Demariyus Thomas that likely would have resulted in a game-winning touchdown. Note that Denver has failed to score more than 23 points since opening the season with a 27-24 victory at home against a depleted Seahawks defense. While the Broncos have been able to hang their hat on their defense in recent years, that simply isn't the case here in 2018. They did a nice job of limiting big plays against the electric Chiefs offense on Monday but still found a way to give up 27 points. While they do possess a vaunted pass rush with Von Miller and rookie Bradley Chubb, they actually rank just 19th in the league in sacks. Chris Harris is a shutdown corner in the secondary but the rest of the Denver pass defense leaves a lot to be desired. The Jets offense isn't going to scare anyone and admittedly has major limitations but I'm not sure they'll be asked to do too much on Sunday afternoon. Look for the defense to carry much of the load as the J-E-T-S finally bring an end to their three-game losing streak and keep head coach Todd Bowles' job safe for at least one more week. Take New York (10*). | |||||||
10-07-18 | Falcons v. Steelers -3 | 17-41 | Win | 100 | 51 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday. While the sky seems to be falling on the Steelers right now, the fact is, they're still just 1-2-1 on the season and far from out of the AFC North race, which I expect to remain wide open all season long. But if Pittsburgh wants to remain a player in that race, a win this week is critical. The Steelers draw an A+ matchup here, particularly on offense, as the Falcons defense is quite simply running out of options due to a multitude of injuries across the board. We've seen the Falcons get lit up in three consecutive games now and things don't figure to finally work themselves out here, even with the Pittsburgh offense looking very much out of sync in the early going this season. On the flip side, the Atlanta offense will undoubtedly continue to move the football and put points on the board against a porous Steelers defense. However, there will come a time in this game where one of these teams will need to come up with a key stop to seal the victory and I simply feel that Pittsburgh is in better position to accomplish that feat. It's worth noting that the Falcons will be playing outdoors for the first time since way back in Week 1 in Philadelphia. You may remember their offense didn't look nearly as explosive in that game as it has in the last three games at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Take Pittsburgh (10*). | |||||||
10-06-18 | Utah v. Stanford UNDER 46 | 40-21 | Loss | -109 | 59 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Utah and Stanford at 10:30 pm et on Saturday. This is certainly a low posted total by college football standards but I do believe it is warranted. Note that these two teams were involved in a low-scoring affair last year as Stanford pulled out a 23-20 victory. I believe this year’s matchup has a chance to be even lower-scoring. Utah knows it needs to tighten things up if it’s going to avoid a third consecutive loss. We saw a wild first half between the Utes and Washington State last Saturday, with both teams scoring three touchdowns. However, Utah didn’t find the end zone again after scoring a TD with six minutes remaining in the first half. On the flip side, the Utes gave up just one touchdown to the Cougars after nine minutes remaining in the second quarter, and that came on an 89-yard pass completion, something that you don’t see very often against this stout defense. Over the Utes previous two games they scored a grand total of just 24 points and seven of those came as a result of a defensive touchdown. Even in Utah’s 41-10 blowout win over FCS squad Weber State to open the season, it took a while before the offense got going. Stanford got lit up for 38 points at Notre Dame last Saturday night so it will also be looking to put forth a much sharper defensive effort here. Perhaps there was a bit of a hangover effect in play after the Cardinal were involved in a wild, come-from-behind 38-31 overtime win at Oregon the week previous. Much like the Utes, I believe the Cardinal are far more comfortable grinding things out in a defensive affair given their personnel. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-06-18 | Vanderbilt v. Georgia UNDER 55 | 13-41 | Win | 100 | 56 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Vanderbilt and Georgia at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. I’m not expecting much from the Vandy offense on Saturday night in Athens. At the same time, the Bulldogs are coming off five straight blowout victories to open the season, in which their offense hasn’t really been tested. I do expect to see the Commodores at least offer some form of resistance on Saturday night. Even last week, when Vandy put up 31 points in a win over FCS squad Tennessee State, it still only scored one first half touchdown and was buoyed by three ‘big play’ touchdowns in the second half – the type of plays that simply won’t happen against this Georgia defense. Prior to that, Vandy had put up just 31 points in its last two games combined. There were a couple of offensive outbursts to open the season as the Commodores defeated Middle Tennessee State and Nevada in blowout fashion. However, those performances were certainly matchup-based. As far as the Georgia offense goes, it is worth noting that two weeks ago, it didn’t score an offensive touchdown in the entire first half against a weak defensive opponent in Missouri. Last Saturday, the Bulldogs scored only three touchdowns before adding two more in the game’s final four minutes. In other words, it’s not as if the ‘Dawgs have been an absolute offensive juggernaut in recent weeks. Last year, this matchup produced 59 points as Georgia rolled to a 45-14 victory. I expect the Commodores to do a slightly better job containing the Bulldogs this time around which lends itself to a lower-scoring contest. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-06-18 | Arizona State v. Colorado UNDER 64.5 | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 52 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Arizona State and Colorado at 4 pm et on Saturday. Arizona State is coming off a high-scoring win over reeling Oregon State last Saturday but will be in tough following that performance up in Boulder this week. Note that in the Sun Devils two previous road games this season they managed to score only 41 points combined in losses to San Diego State and Washington. Against San Diego State, Arizona State scored a touchdown with around eight minutes left in the second quarter and then didn’t find the end zone again until the final two minutes of the fourth quarter. The next week at Washington, the Sun Devils put a touchdown on the board three minutes into the contest but then didn’t score another TD until the final three minutes of the fourth quarter. In other words, this is an offense that can settle into some lulls. Colorado is off to a perfect 4-0 start and has certainly held up well defensively, save for a poor showing at Nebraska. Although even in that game, the Buffaloes gave up just one big play touchdown in the second half after allowing three TDs in the first 30 minutes. They manhandled UCLA last week, allowing a touchdown halfway through the first quarter but then keeping the Bruins out of the end zone for the remainder of the game. These two teams were involved in a wild 41-30 affair in favor of Arizona State last November. Don’t count on a repeat performance here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-06-18 | Indiana v. Ohio State UNDER 65 | Top | 26-49 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 3 m | Show |
NCAAF Big Ten Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Indiana and Ohio State at 4 pm et on Saturday. We’ve won with the ‘under’ in each of Ohio State’s last two games and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Saturday as the Buckeyes host Indiana. The Hoosiers are off to a solid 4-1 start to the season but let’s face it, their schedule hasn’t toughened up yet. In their lone true test they suffered a 35-21 home loss against Michigan State. They check in 2-0 on the road, where they have scored 62 points, but they managed only 24 points in last week’s victory against a bad Rutgers squad. In that game, they did manage to score three touchdowns, but all three came in the game’s first 21 minutes. The good news is, the Indiana defense can hold up better than it did last year against the Buckeyes. Note that in its toughest test so far, it held Michigan State to only one offensive touchdown before the final 20 seconds of the first half and only three offensive touchdowns in total in that contest – one coming on a 75-yard run to close out the game with just over three minutes remaining. Ohio State’s offense certainly wasn’t great last Saturday night but that had a lot to do with the environment it was playing in. There’s no question the Buckeyes will have an easier time getting loose in this one but I’m still not sure this is a true offensive juggernaut and we could see a bit of a hangover here off the thrilling 27-26 victory at Penn State. In this matchup, Ohio State will simply be looking to pick up a ‘W’ and move on and I believe that lends itself to a lower-scoring game than the oddsmakers are calling for. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-06-18 | Syracuse v. Pittsburgh OVER 58 | 37-44 | Win | 100 | 48 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Syracuse and Pittsburgh at 12:20 pm et on Saturday. We won with the ‘under’ in Syracuse’s narrow loss at Clemson last Saturday but I won’t hesitate to switch gears and back the ‘over’ as the Orange travel to face the Pitt Panthers this week. Prior to getting stymied by an elite Clemson defense last week, the Orange were absolutely rolling along offensively. They should have little trouble picking right back up against a weak Panthers defense here. Note that Syracuse scored three touchdowns before the game was even 12 minutes old two weeks ago against Connecticut. In the Orange’s lone road trip so far this season they lit up the scoreboard for 55 points against Western Michigan – again scoring three first quarter touchdowns. With that being said, Pitt does find itself in a solid bounce-back spot offensively here. Last Saturday the Panthers ran into a very tough matchup and scored only 14 points at Central Florida. Keep in mind just two weeks back they scored four first half touchdowns en route to a wild 38-35 loss at North Carolina. Syracuse held up well defensively against Clemson last week but could be a little worn down heading into this matchup. Should the Orange build a lead I do feel that the Panthers will be able to keep the pressure on by bombing away on offense. Note that even against a very limited UConn offense two weeks ago the Orange still allowed three touchdowns. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-06-18 | Tulane v. Cincinnati -7 | Top | 21-37 | Win | 100 | 48 h 9 m | Show |
NCAAF AAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Cincinnati minus the points over Tulane at 12 noon et on Saturday. I’ll lay the points with the Bearcats on Saturday afternoon. Cincinnati is quietly off to a perfect 5-0 start and has an excellent opportunity to keep it rolling against an inconsistent Tulane squad here. The Green Wave are coming off a surprising win over Memphis last week but they’ll be hard-pressed to follow it up with another victory on Saturday. Note that in their two previous road games they fell 31-24 as a road favorite at UAB and 49-6 in an expected beatdown at Ohio State. This play is more about Cincinnati than it is Tulane, however. The Bearcats have seemingly gotten stronger with each passing week and are fresh off a near perfect performance in a 49-7 rout at Connecticut last Saturday. Unlike recent years, they finally have an offense that can put points on the board, with a balanced attack that has enjoyed success both on the ground and through the air. Tulane has managed to score at least 40 points on two different occasions but one of those efforts came against an FCS opponent Nicholls State and the other came last week in a game where Memphis clearly overlooked the Green Wave. In that contest scored a pair of first quarter touchdowns but didn’t find the end zone between the final five minutes of the first quarter and the final play of the third quarter. They were buoyed but a trio of complete defensive breakdowns on the part of the Tigers late, something I don’t expect to see from a well-coached Cincinnati squad on Saturday. Take Cincinnati (10*). | |||||||
10-06-18 | Oklahoma v. Texas OVER 61 | 45-48 | Win | 100 | 48 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Texas and Oklahoma at 12 pm et on Saturday. This matchup wasn’t as high-scoring as anticipated last season as Oklahoma pulled out a 29-24 victory. I expect a different story to unfold this time around as the Sooners are absolutely rolling offensively but also somewhat vulnerable defensively. That should help lead to a shootout on Saturday afternoon. Texas’ offense certainly didn’t perform at a high level in last week’s narrow 19-14 win at Kansas State but I’m willing to give the Longhorns a mulligan for that one. Note that they had scored at least 28 points in each of their previous four games this season. Even against a tough TCU defense two weeks ago, we saw Texas seal the deal with three touchdowns over the game’s final 16 minutes. Oklahoma rolled to another blowout win last week against Baylor, but still allowed 33 points. Should the Sooners get ahead, the Longhorns should have little trouble bombing away on this defense. The Bears put up three second half touchdowns against the Sooners last week. Game flow dictated a relatively low-scoring affair involving the Sooners against Army two weeks ago. Outside of that, virtually all of their games have evolved into shootouts, with Oklahoma scoring at will. While I do have respect for the Longhorns defense, I feel they’ve caught some favorable matchups this season. Here, they run into a Sooners offense that is operating at an extremely high level. Expect a high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-05-18 | Georgia Tech v. Louisville UNDER 57.5 | 66-31 | Loss | -110 | 94 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Georgia Tech and Louisville at 7 pm et on Friday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in Georgia Tech's rout of Bowling Green last Saturday but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as the Yellow Jackets hit the road to face struggling Louisville on Friday night. The Yellow Jackets absolutely dominated an overmatched Bowling Green defense last Saturday but aren't likely to enjoy anywhere close to the same level of success against the Cardinals. Louisville is allowing just north of four yards per rush this season and held Florida State to next to nothing on the ground in last Saturday's 28-24 loss. The Cards' undoing in that game was a couple of big plays through the air but they won't have to deal with much of an aerial attack at all against the Jackets. On the flip side, the Georgia Tech defense hasn't been all that consistent, but I will point to its game against Clemson two weeks ago, a game in which it didn't allow an offensive touchdown until nearly midway through the second quarter. The Jackets defense ultimately got worn down and couldn't hold up in that contest but won't face the same type of test against a limited Louisville offense here. The Cardinals actually scored three quick first half touchdowns against Florida State last Saturday but couldn't find the end zone again the rest of the way and were held off the scoreboard entirely in the fourth quarter. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-04-18 | Colts v. Patriots OVER 50.5 | 24-38 | Win | 100 | 23 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Indianapolis and New England at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. This may look like a high posted total but it's not really all that high by today's NFL standards. The Colts may not appear all that imposing on offense with WR T.Y. Hilton and TE Jack Doyle sidelined and Andrew Luck still working his way back into form but we certainly saw positive signs from Luck last week as Indy finally 'lifted the lid' so to speak on their now-healthy quarterback. The Colts will be facing a middle of the road, not to mention banged-up New England defense - one that surprisingly held up well against the Dolphins last Sunday, allowing only a late fourth quarter touchdown. Indy does have a couple of offensive weapons that can thrive in this matchup in pass-catching RB Nyheim Hines and TE Eric Ebron. The Patriots couldn't be catching the Colts defense at a better time. Indianapolis has had to play a lot of football over the last couple of weeks and has a number of key defenders either listed as out or questionable to play in this one. Tom Brady will get arguably his favorite target back on the field this week as WR Julian Edelman returns from suspension. TE Rob Gronkowski may not be healthy but I'm not sure it matters. The emergence of RB Sony Michel last week gives the Pats another strong element to their offense. Playing at home for the second straight game following a blowout victory only helps their cause. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-04-18 | Tulsa v. Houston UNDER 68 | 26-41 | Win | 100 | 71 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Tulsa and Houston at 8 pm et on Thursday. We've already cashed 'under' tickets in games involving both of these teams this season and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play again on Thursday night. Tulsa has actually seen the 'under' cash in each of its last three games. We won with the 'under' in the Golden Hurricane's most recent contest - a 31-17 loss at Temple. It's worth noting that while they did allow 30+ points in that one, they actually didn't give up an offensive score to the Owls until the second quarter. Tempe was buoyed by a pair of defensive touchdowns in that game. The only other time Tulsa traveled this season it held Texas to 28 points, albeit in a losing effort. The Golden Hurricane defense will be facing its toughest test of the season here, but at least it comes in fresh, having just not played since September 20th. Houston also enters this game off its bye week. The Cougars offense has been every bit as good and maybe even better than advertised this season. Save for a wild game against Texas Tech, their defense has been serviceable as well, and draws a favorable matchup against a limited Tulsa offense here. Note that Houston hasn't scored more than 38 points in this matchup since back in 2011 (the two teams have met five times since). I believe they'll have to get well north of that number to threaten this total on Thursday night. It's worth mentioning that the Cougars are without RB Terence Williams, who had run for 142 yards on 25 carries, good for 5.7 yards per rush, before getting injured. Note that the 'under' is 9-3 in Houston's last 12 AAC contests. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-04-18 | Georgia State v. Troy UNDER 57 | Top | 20-37 | Push | 0 | 70 h 28 m | Show |
NCAAF Sun Belt Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Georgia State and Troy at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in games involving both of these teams earlier this season but I still believe it's the right play on Thursday night as they match up at Veterans Memorial Stadium. Georgia State has scored exactly 21 points in each of its last two road games against Troy but last year managed only 10 points against the Trojans, at home no less, and I believe this is one of the weaker Panthers offenses we've seen in recent years. Don't count on a repeat performance after Georgia State put up 46 points in a rout of Louisiana-Monroe last Saturday. Prior to that the Panthers had scored just 68 points through their first four games combined. Since allowing 59 points in a weeknight matchup with Memphis back on September 14th, Georgia State has shown some improvement on the defensive side of the football. The very next week the Panthers didn't give up a touchdown until the final five minutes of the first half against Western Michigan. Last Saturday they shut out Louisiana Monroe over the final two quarters and nine minutes of football. Troy has absolutely tightened things up defensively since getting trounced by Boise State in its season-opener. The Trojans offense has been rolling along as well but might have to rein it in a bit playing on a short week here. Note that Troy has scored just 21, 31 and 34 points in its last three matchups against Georgia State. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-03-18 | Flames -125 v. Canucks | 2-5 | Loss | -125 | 13 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Calgary over Vancouver at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. I don't believe the Flames are being given enough respect by the betting marketplace, laying a short price in Vancouver on Wednesday night. Calgary is coming off a down year, but so are the Canucks. I simply feel that the Flames are much further along in their progression as the curtain lifts on a new NHL season. The Canucks might not be as bad as most are expecting as I do feel they'll play with a renewed energy as they move on from the Henrik and Daniel Sedin era, so to speak. I like the moves the Flames made to shore up their defense in the offseason and they have a goaltender in Mike Smith who enjoyed some success in his first year in Calgary and should build off of that this season. I don't envision the Canucks keeping up with the Flames on the scoreboard on Wednesday. Take Calgary (10*). | |||||||
10-01-18 | Chiefs v. Broncos OVER 54 | 27-23 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Kansas City and Denver at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'over' in Denver on Monday night as AFC West rivals the Chiefs and Broncos go head-to-head. Kansas City is of course built for 'overs' with an electric, high-scoring offense and a porous defense. The Chiefs have been lit up both on the ground and through the air through three games this season and nothing figures to change as they face a versatile Broncos offense on Monday night. Denver's offense got derailed in Baltimore last Sunday but faces a more favorable matchup at home here. Note that the Broncos lost breakout rookie RB Phillip Lindsay relatively early in last week's contest. He figures to make an impact against a Chiefs defense that has allowed over five yards per rush to opposing running backs this season. Broncos QB Case Keenum is in a strong bounce-back spot here and should continue to build on his solid rapport with WR Emmanuel Sanders against a very beatable Chiefs secondary. Meanwhile, Chiefs QB Pat Mahomes should have a field day throwing on a Broncos secondary that has really struggled this season. Gone are the days of Denver absolutely shutting down opposing passing games. While it does boast a solid pass rush, Mahomes has shown the ability to beat whatever opposing defenses have thrown at him and I expect nothing different here. This is certainly a high total by NFL standards but it's warranted in my opinion. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-01-18 | Chiefs v. Broncos +4.5 | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 22 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver plus the points over Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Monday. You can certainly make the argument that this is a bigger game for the Broncos than it is for the Chiefs. Kansas City is off to a perfect 3-0 start and could put two games between itself and Denver with a win on Monday night. Meanwhile, the Broncos have scored just 34 points over their last two games combined, checking in with a 2-1 record. The common line of thinking is that they'll have trouble keeping up with the high-flying Chiefs offense on Monday night. I'm not so easily convinced. Denver brought in QB Case Keenum in the offseason and he has certainly looked good at times this season and should only get better with time as he gets acclimated with the offense. We've already seen him develop some nice chemistry with WR Emmanuel Sanders. Note that while the Broncos struggled offensively last week in Baltimore, they lost rookie RB Phillip Lindsay relatively early in the game after he threw a punch. His presence does add another element to this offense and should serve Denver well on Monday night. Two games back he ran for over 100 yards on only 14 carries against Oakland. The Chiefs defense has been virtually non-existent so far this season and this certainly doesn't appear to be an ideal bounce-back spot for that unit. I'll grab all the points I can get with the home underdog here. Take Denver (10*). | |||||||
09-30-18 | Ravens v. Steelers OVER 50 | 26-14 | Loss | -107 | 55 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Baltimore and Pittsburgh at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. We've seen three straight relatively low-scoring Sunday Night Football matchups to start the season but I look for a different story to unfold this week. While we were previously accustomed to seeing defensive slugfests between the Ravens and Steelers, that hasn't really been the case in recent years. Both of these teams are built on the strength of their offense right now, not necessarily by design in the Ravens case, and that should lead to another high-scoring showdown on Sunday night. The Ravens will get cornerback Jimmy Smith back from suspension in their next game, which is really a game too late as they're in line to get lit up by a loaded Steelers passing game here. We've yet to see Antonio Brown really go off, although we did see signs of it happening this past Monday in Tampa. This should be the game where AB does put up some monster numbers against a vulnerable Ravens pass defense. I also look for Steelers RB James Conner to take a more prominent role, not just running the football, but in the passing game as well. The Ravens offense has really taken off over the last seven or eight games going back to last season. While they're not flashy by any means with Joe Flacco under center, they continue to put up points on a consistent basis. Here they'll be facing a bottom of the barrel Steelers defense that hasn't been able to do anything to limit opposing passing games this season. Even on Monday night, when it looked like Pittsburgh had the game in the bag, they let the Bucs bomb away and ultimately pull within a field goal in the fourth quarter. Expect a high-scoring, back and forth affair at Heinz Field on Sunday night. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-30-18 | Saints v. Giants OVER 50.5 | 33-18 | Win | 100 | 51 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and New York at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. This one sets up as yet another shootout involving the Saints, who stay on the road to face the Giants. New Orleans owns one of the worst defenses in the entire league right now - a stark contrast to what we saw from the Saints a year ago. Now they'll have to face a Giants offense that found its footing in last week's win in Houston. Eli Manning did a much better job of getting the ball out quickly and utilizing the short passing game, leading to a 27-point outburst against the Texans. Manning and the Giants offense draw another favorable matchup here. The question is, can the G-Men slow down the Saints explosive offense. After suffering a hiccup against an underrated Browns defense, the Saints bounced back in a big way last Sunday, lighting up the scoreboard in Atlanta. There's little reason to expect any regression here, noting that the Giants have had no success generating pressure on opposing quarterbacks this season. Given a clean pocket, Brees should have no trouble carving this New York defense. Perhaps no offensive player is performing as well as Saints RB Alvin Kamara right now and he is in for another big day both on the ground and through the air on Sunday. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-30-18 | Browns +3 v. Raiders | 42-45 | Push | 0 | 51 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Oakland at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll approach this play with a bit of caution as the hype train has certainly left the station as far as the Browns go following last week's big come-from-behind win over the Jets in front of a national audience. With that being said, I do believe they draw a favourable matchup against the Raiders here. The Cleveland defense in particular should have little trouble slowing a plodding Raiders attack that simply doesn't have a lot going for it this season. The Browns run defense has been solid, allowing just under 3.7 yards per rush this season while they've also given opposing running backs nothing in the short passing game. Meanwhile their pass defense has been stout as well with rookie corner Denzel Ward leading the way. It's not as if they've faced an easy slate of QB's either, going up against Big Ben and Drew Brees along with Sam Darnold. While I don't expect Browns rookie QB Baker Mayfield to light it up in his first career start, I do feel he can do enough to secure a victory. Note that the Raiders haven't been able to generate any pressure against opposing quarterbacks and that isn't likely to change against Mayfield. Even if they do, his mobility should serve him well in this matchup. Look for another big game from Browns WR Jarvis Landry here. Take Cleveland (10*). | |||||||
09-30-18 | Bengals v. Falcons OVER 53 | Top | 37-36 | Win | 100 | 49 h 36 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Cincinnati and Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the ‘over’ in the Falcons wild overtime loss to the Saints last Sunday and I’ll go right back to the well with the same play here. The Bengals aren’t known for their offense, but they’ve performed pretty well in the early going this season and even if WR A.J. Green can’t go due to his groin injury this week, I still believe they’ll be able to put plenty of points on the board, due in large part to the mess of injuries the Falcons are dealing with on the defensive side of the football. Atlanta got torched by the Saints offense last week and will be in tough trying to slow down a versatile Bengals offense as well. The absence of Deion Jones and Keanu Neal is obviously key, but Takk McKinley’s injury can’t be understated either. The good news for the Falcons is that they have an offense capable of thriving in a shootout. Everyone was quick to criticize the Falcons red zone offense following their opening game in Philadelphia but since then, all they’ve done is go 8-for-8 ending drives with touchdowns inside the 20-yard line. With the Bengals still missing LB Vontaze Burfict, Falcons RB Tevin Coleman should have a field day on Sunday. And the Falcons have mismatches all over the field at wide receiver, especially with the emergence of rookie Calvin Ridley. Expect to see he and Julio Jones go off in this matchup with a below average Bengals pass defense. Perfect conditions inside Mercedes-Benz Stadium only add to the strength of this play. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-30-18 | Bucs v. Bears -3 | Top | 10-48 | Win | 100 | 48 h 28 m | Show |
NFL NFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago minus the points over Tampa Bay at 1 pm et on Sunday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Bears on Sunday afternoon. We cashed a ticket fading the Bucs in their ‘closer than the final score indicated’ loss to the Steelers on Monday night and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well here. We certainly saw some regression from the Bucs offense in that matchup with a terrible Steelers pass defense. The magic seemed to run out for QB Ryan Fitzpatrick and I really believe this will be his last start for Tampa Bay for a while with the Bucs heading into their bye week after this and Jameis Winston ready to return to the field. While I’m not a big fan of the Bears offense with Mitchell Trubisky at the helm right now, I’m not sure it really matters here as Chicago should have little trouble moving the football against a weak Bucs defense. The Bears have enough talent around Trubisky, namely RB Jordan Howard and WR Allen Robinson, to put up some points on Sunday afternoon. This is a well-coached football team that is still slowly learning a new offense. There will come a week where we see a breakout performance, and this just might be it. I like the fact that the Bears defense should be able to completely take away the Bucs already non-existent ground game and force Fitzpatrick into more mistakes. Take Chicago (10*). | |||||||
09-30-18 | Bucs v. Bears OVER 46 | 10-48 | Win | 100 | 46 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Tampa Bay and Chicago at 1 pm et on Sunday. As long as the Bucs continue to play a hyper-aggressive style of offense and no defense whatsoever, they’re an automatic ‘over’ play, even against a quality defensive opponent such as the Bears. Chicago is coming off back-to-back low-scoring games but those results were definitely matchup-driven as they came against the Seahawks and Cardinals. Here, they’ll face their toughest challenge since wilting in the second half against the Packers back in Week 1. Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky hasn’t exactly been lighting up opposing defenses – far from it, in fact – but he does draw a favorable matchup here and I like the effort Chicago made to get RB Jordan Howard more involved not only on the ground but in the passing game as well last week. He works as a focal point of this offense. Meanwhile, Trubisky continues to build a stronger rapport with TE Trey Burton and has clearly found a favorite target in WR Allen Robinson. There are enough positives to take away from the Bears offense over the first three games to believe that they can put up some points against the Bucs. Tampa Bay will undoubtedly continue to bomb away in hopes of baiting the Bears into a shootout here. This could be Ryan Fitzpatrick’s last start for a while should he falter so we can be confident knowing that he’ll go down swinging at the very least. Note that it's been made official on Friday that Bears corner Prince Amukamara will not play on Sunday. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-30-18 | Dolphins v. Patriots OVER 48.5 | Top | 7-38 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 20 m | Show |
NFL AFC East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and New England at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'over' in Foxborough on Sunday afternoon. We missed the mark with the 'over' in the Patriots stunning blowout loss in Detroit last Sunday night but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. The Pats always seem to bounce back from bad games, let along back-to-back bad games, as is the case here. The fact they're returning home for the first time since Week 1 certainly helps their cause. Note that New England always seems to score 30+ points against the Dolphins and while Miami has held up well defensively in the early going this season, it's worth noting it has faced the likes of Tennessee, New York (Jets) and Oakland. This will be its toughest test to date by far. Xavien Howard is a stud in the secondary for the Fins but he can't cover everyone. Look for Tom Brady to spread the football around in this contest. On the flip side, the Patriots defense has been getting gashed against the run and will be vulnerable against Miami's underrated RB Kenyon Drake. The Pats simply don't have the personnel to win games with defense right now and even against a middle of the road Dolphins offense, I don't expect to see them turn in a standout performance. Miami has enough playmakers around QB Ryan Tannehill to put some points on the board in this one. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-29-18 | Oregon v. California +2 | 42-24 | Loss | -110 | 38 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on California plus the points over Oregon at 10:30 pm et on Saturday. There's a concern here that Oregon may have left it all on the field in last week's crushing 38-31 overtime loss at home against Stanford. Now the Ducks have to travel to face an upstart 3-0 Cal squad that has seemingly gotten stronger with each passing game. Note that the Ducks suffered a loss in their last trip to Berkeley two years ago - last winning here back in 2014. That was when they had the services of Marcus Mariota and Royce Freeman. Last year, the Ducks prevailed by a 45-24 score at home against the Golden Bears but that was actually a 24-17 game in the fourth quarter and keep in mind, Oregon was a 17-point favourite in that contest. Oregon had a big first half against the Cardinal last week, but outside of that, the Ducks have beaten up on much weaker opponents. I'll back the Bears in this spot. Take California (10*). | |||||||
09-29-18 | Ohio State v. Penn State UNDER 70 | 27-26 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Ohio State and Penn State at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. We’ve split a pair of ‘under’ plays involving Ohio State over the last weeks but won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. While this showdown certainly has shootout potential, I simply feel that the total has been set too high, largely as a result of last year’s wild 39-38 affair in favor of Ohio State. The Buckeyes defense didn’t give Tulane anything last Saturday, in what was potentially a nightmare sandwich spot in between games against TCU and Penn State. Keep in mind, a week earlier Ohio State held up well enough to earn a 40-28 win over TCU, not allowing a single point in the fourth quarter of what was a fairly tight game at the time. Offensively, there’s no question the Buckeyes are a juggernaut but they will face a tough test on Saturday night in Happy Valley. Penn State knows it will need to be sharper defensively than it was last week, when it gave up a pair of first half touchdowns against Illinois. For their part, the Nittany Lions didn’t really explode offensively until they had worn down the Illini in the fourth quarter. Penn State’s offense has been incredible, but like the Buckeyes, will be facing their toughest test of the season to date by a longshot here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-29-18 | Florida Atlantic v. Middle Tennessee State +3.5 | Top | 24-25 | Win | 100 | 35 h 52 m | Show |
NCAAF Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Middle Tennessee State plus the points over Florida Atlantic at 7 pm et on Saturday. Florida Atlantic rolled past Middle Tennessee State in last year's meeting, posting a 38-20 victory at home. Prior to that this series was all Blue Raiders, however, and I look for MTSU to exact some revenge at home on Saturday night. FAU has yet to notch an ATS victory through four games this season. The Owls have been steamrolled both times they've stepped up in class against Oklahoma and Central Florida. Meanwhile, MTSU is coming off a beatdown at the hands of Georgia, but I like the fact that the Blue Raiders have had an extra week off to recover from that physical affair. We've yet to see them play their best game this season but I do believe it's coming. Keep in mind, this is a team loaded with talent and experience on both sides of the football, and one that won a Bowl game last December, in an underdog role no less. This is a big game for MTSU if it wants to go Bowling again this year. With another loss the Blue Raiders would fall to 1-3 and face an uphill battle to six wins given their remaining schedule. I expect them to at the very least take this one right down to the wire. Take Middle Tennessee State (10*). | |||||||
09-29-18 | Texas v. Kansas State OVER 48 | Top | 19-14 | Loss | -107 | 32 h 31 m | Show |
NCAAF Big 12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Texas and Kansas State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We won with the ‘under’ in Texas’ big win over TCU last Saturday but I won’t hesitate to switch gears and back the ‘over’ as the Longhorns hit the road to face Kansas State this week. I thought the Longhorns did a tremendous job moving the football against a good Horned Frogs defense last Saturday. They were able to come up with big plays when they needed to and have now strung together four pretty impressive offensive results through four games, scoring 29, 28, 37 and 31 points. While their defense has certainly contributed as well, I will give plenty of credit to this emerging offense and I’m confident they can keep things rolling against a Wildcats squad that has had a tough time defending against anyone with a pulse this season. Kansas State gave up five touchdowns through the first three quarters against West Virginia last Saturday. In a previous step-up game against Mississippi State two weeks earlier it hung tough for a quarter before allowing a pair of back-breaking second quarter touchdowns. Offensively the Wildcats have had a tough time as well but will look for a spark with QB Alex Delton taking over the reins against the Longhorns. I like the fact that they’re catching Texas in a clear letdown spot off back-to-back high profile wins over USC and TCU. Let’s also keep in mind that we saw a shootout between these two teams last year with Texas prevailing by a 40-34 score. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-29-18 | Bowling Green v. Georgia Tech UNDER 65.5 | 17-63 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Bowling Green and Georgia Tech at 12 noon et on Saturday. I'll back the 'under' in Atlanta on Saturday afternoon. The 'over' has cashed in two straight and three of Bowling Green's four games overall this season but I look for a different story to unfold on Saturday. It's certainly worth noting that in the Falcons last game against Miami-Ohio last week, we saw only 34 total points through the first three quarters. Despite a wild 27-point fourth quarter, the game still stayed 'under' the number we're working with this week. The Falcons certainly haven't been great defensively this season but I feel they catch a less than daunting matchup, albeit against a Power Five opponent on Saturday afternoon. Georgia Tech has put up only 40 points over its last two games after scoring a whopping 79 points in its first two contests. Of course, the matchups have dictated the Yellow Jackets offensively struggles, although failing to reach the end zone until nearly midway through the third quarter against a relatively weak Pitt defines two weeks ago was concerning to be sure. While this should be a layup for Georgia Tech, I'm just not sure we're going to see them go off offensively. On the flip side, the Yellow Jackets defines should 'get right' in this matchup. The Falcons will probably look like they're going in slow motion after going up against Clemson last Saturday. It will likely take a shootout to get 'over' this lofty total - I'm not sure we'll see one develop on Saturday afternoon. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-29-18 | Syracuse v. Clemson UNDER 66 | 23-27 | Win | 100 | 28 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Syracuse and Clemson at 12 noon et on Saturday. Most are anticipating a shootout between these two squads in Death Valley on Saturday afternoon. I'm not sure we'll see both teams contribute enough to get 'over' the inflated total, however. Syracuse has been rolling offensively, but has also had the benefit of playing each of its last three games on the fast track at the Carrier Dome. Even in a shocking upset win over the Tigers at home last season, the Orange still scored 'only' 27 points. The last time they played in this stadium they were shutout in a blowout loss back in 2016. Clemson is on point defensively right now, having allowed just 61 points through four games. It's not as if the Tigers have been facing all cupcake opponents either, with two road games against Texas A&M and Georgia Tech. While the Tigers offense can be electric, I do still feel the Orange defense is slightly underrated entering this one. When they needed to step up against Florida State two weeks ago, they did so in a big way, allowing just seven points in a blowout victory. I don't expect to see the Syracuse defense completely wilt under the pressure on Saturday afternoon. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-29-18 | Arkansas v. Texas A&M UNDER 60 | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 28 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Arkansas and Texas A&M at 12 noon et on Saturday. I’ll back the ‘under’ at AT&T Stadium on Saturday afternoon. The last time these two teams met last September we saw a wild game with Arkansas prevailing by a 50-43 score. I look for a different story to unfold here. Note that Arkansas has scored a grand total of just 47 points over its last three games after putting up 55 points against FCS squad Eastern Illinois in its season-opener. While last week’s beatdown at the hands of Auburn was somewhat expected, there’s really no excuse for putting up only 17 points against North Texas, at home no less, the week previous. In that game, we didn’t see the ‘Hogs reach the end zone until the second quarter and not again until the final minute of the fourth quarter, when UNT was in full prevent defense mode. Defensively, I will give Arkansas credit for giving up just two offensive touchdowns in the first three quarters against Auburn last week. Special teams have been a bit of an issue for the ‘Hogs but that’s not really something we can account for when handicapping the total here. We missed the mark with the ‘under’ in Texas A&M’s blowout loss at Alabama last Saturday, but it’s not as if the total was torched in that contest and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Note that prior to that, the Aggies had allowed only 45 points combined through their first three games. Even in a tough matchup against Clemson, the Aggies gave up just two first half touchdowns and nothing at all in the fourth quarter of what turned out to be a nail-biter. Offensively, I’ll point out that A&M only managed two offensive touchdowns in the first half against Louisiana-Monroe two games back, with that game ultimately turning on a late first half blocked field goal for a touchdown. This total has been set too high in my opinion. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-28-18 | UCLA v. Colorado OVER 60.5 | Top | 16-38 | Loss | -107 | 84 h 42 m | Show |
NCAAF Pac-12 Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘over’ between UCLA and Colorado at 9 pm et on Friday. I’ll back the ‘over’ in Boulder on Friday night. The UCLA offense has had a tough time getting things going in its first year under the guidance of Chip Kelly, scoring a grand total of just 52 points through three games. This does have the feel of a ‘clean slate’ game, however, as the Bruins head out on the road for their first Pac-12 game of the season. And they’ll be facing a Colorado defense that probably isn’t quite as good as the stats may indicate, as it has faced a weak Colorado State offense and an FCS opponent in New Hampshire in two of its first three games this season. In the Buffaloes other game, they allowed well over 500 total yards of offense in a wild 33-28 victory over Nebraska. The good news for Colorado is that its offense has been better than anticipated and I don’t believe the UCLA defense will offer a great deal of resistance on Friday night. Colorado scored three offensive touchdowns in the first half against UNH last Saturday and it was a breakout performance by RB Travon McMillian as he ran for 162 yards on only 15 carries. Of course, the offense evolves around experienced QB Steven Montez. He didn’t have to do much against UNH last time out, but in his first two games, threw for 689 yards, seven touchdowns and just one interception. He should have a field day against a very beatable UCLA defense that is still finding its way in the early going and just allowed five offensive touchdowns in a blowout loss against Fresno State, at home no less. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-28-18 | Memphis v. Tulane UNDER 67 | 24-40 | Win | 100 | 83 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Memphis and Tulane at 8 pm et on Thursday. I’ll back the ‘under’ in New Orleans on Friday night. We won with the ‘under’ in Tulane’s blowout loss at Ohio State last Saturday and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well in this spot. Yes, the Green Wave got absolutely torched defensively against the Buckeyes but that was to be expected. Keep in mind, in their previous game, also on the road, they limited UAB to just two offensive touchdowns in the first three quarters. They held up well in their previous contest as well, albeit against FCS squad Nicholls State, not allowing a touchdown until the final 30 seconds of the first half en route to a 42-17 win. And of course in their season-opener they limited a pretty good Wake Forest offense to only 17 points in regulation time. While Memphis is certainly capable of hanging a crooked number on the scoreboard, most of the Tigers damage has been done at home this season. In their lone road tilt, they scored just one first half touchdown in an eventual 22-21 win over Navy (I will point out that weather conditions were not favorable in that contest). Memphis’ other three games have all resulted in blowout victories, and it has scored 66, 59 and 52 points. Perhaps we see a bit of a letdown from the offense here as it hits the road for the first time since September 8th to face a 1-3 Tulane squad that certainly doesn’t draw a great deal of motivation. The Green Wave offense is not good this year and Memphis will certainly be focusing on playing better defensively after giving up 35 points against South Alabama last week. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-27-18 | Vikings v. Rams OVER 49 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 34 h 25 m | Show |
NFL Thursday Night Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Minnesota and Los Angeles at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. I’ll back the ‘over’ in Los Angeles on Thursday night. We won with the ‘over’ in the Rams victory over the Chargers last Sunday and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. While the Vikings have seen the ‘under’ cash in two of their first three games this season, the fact is, all three of those contests just as easily could and probably should have gone ‘over’ the number. A lot of points were left on the field in their opener against the 49ers as San Francisco in particular had a tough time finishing drives – keep in mind that was against a Vikings defense that was virtually at full strength, and at home no less. The Vikes followed that up with a wild 29-29 tie in Green Bay before returning home in a massive sandwich spot against the lowly Bills, shockingly dropping that game in blowout fashion. There’s no question Minnesota was caught looking past Buffalo and wasn’t sharp on either side of the football. The Vikes know they’ll need to be a lot better, particularly on offense, in order to hang with the red hot Rams on Thursday night. Los Angeles has gotten better offensively with each passing game this season. There really was no stopping Sean McVay’s offense last Sunday as the Rams moved the football at will against a banged-up Chargers defense. Now they face another quality defensive opponent, but one that is also missing a number of key cogs. I look for Rams WR Cooper Kupp in particular to have a big game in this spot after being generally held in check by the Chargers last week. He owns a considerable advantage against Vikings slot corner Mackensie Alexander in this one. The Vikings will be without their best pass rusher in Everson Griffen this week and are banged-up in the secondary as well. For a team that hasn’t performed particularly well defensively on the road, that spells major trouble against the Rams outstanding offense. I do believe the Vikes can hang in there on the strength of their offense, however, and they certainly have ‘bomb away’ potential should they fall behind. Dalvin Cook may be sidelined again on Thursday, but it should be the Minnesota passing game that exploits a couple of mismatches on the perimeter with Rams' corners Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib sidelined. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-27-18 | North Carolina v. Miami-FL OVER 55.5 | 10-47 | Win | 100 | 71 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between North Carolina and Miami at 8 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'over' in this ACC matchup on Thursday night. North Carolina got off to a shaky start offensively this season but has been getting sharper with each passing week. Last Saturday, the Tar Heels pulled out a wild 38-35 victory over Pitt - their first win of the season. I look for them to build on that performance here, even against a quality Miami squad that has reeled off three straight wins since opening the season with a real stinker against LSU. Since getting off to a sluggish start against the Tigers, the Miami offense has exploded, scoring 171 points over its last 13 quarters of football. I don't expect the Tar Heels to offer all that much resistance here. Last week, North Carolina allowed four first half touchdowns against Pittsburgh. The last two meetings in this series have been low-scoring, totaling just 33 and 43 points. Keep in mind, this is the earliest matchup between these two teams since way back in 2008. It's worth noting that contest did play 'over' the total. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-24-18 | Steelers +1 v. Bucs | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 24 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh over Tampa Bay at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I'll back the Steelers on Monday night as they try to get past all of their issues on and off the field and earn their first victory of the season. The sky is not actually falling in Pittsburgh right now. Le'Veon Bell remains out of the mix and Antonio Brown certainly wasn't happy with the way last week's game played out, but this is still a team that has suffered just one loss - that coming against perhaps the league's hottest team in the Kansas City Chiefs. With a win here the Steelers can right the ship and while the Bucs have gone 2-0 so far, I believe they present a favorable matchup for Pittsburgh on Monday Night Football. Tampa Bay took advantage of a struggling Saints defense in Week 1 and then caught the Eagles at home last week, without their starting QB Carson Wentz. Perhaps we shouldn't be all that surprised by Tampa Bay's 2-0 start. Tampa Bay will put its share of points on the board, but in the end, I don't believe it will be enough. Take Pittsburgh (10*). | |||||||
09-24-18 | Steelers v. Bucs OVER 54 | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 24 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I don't see where the stops come from in this non-conference showdown on Monday night. The Steelers have been absolutely torched by two offenses at opposite ends of the spectrum in the Browns and Chiefs. The Bucs enter this matchup absolutely rolling on offense, and playing an extremely aggressive style that should bode well against a weak Steelers defense. The problem for Tampa Bay is, it will be going up against a supremely talented, not to mention highly motivated Steelers offense. We've yet to see Pittsburgh's best offensively but I believe there's a good chance we witness just that on Monday night. RB James Conner has had little trouble filling the absent Le'Veon Bell's role. Meanwhile, we can anticipate a big game out of WR Antonio Brown following last week's frustrations. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-23-18 | Patriots v. Lions OVER 53.5 | Top | 10-26 | Loss | -104 | 24 h 34 m | Show |
NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between New England and Detroit at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. This has all the makings of a high-scoring shootout on Sunday Night Football. The Patriots defense isn’t an elite group to begin with and things have gotten worse on the injury front with both Trey Flowers and Patrick Chung expected to miss this week’s game. While the Lions are off to a miserable 0-2 start, they have continued to bomb away with Matt Stafford throwing for well over 600 yards and four touchdowns (to go along with four interceptions). There’s a good chance the Lions will be playing from behind again on Sunday night, which opens the door for another aerial assault from Stafford to his fantastic trio of wide receivers in Tate, Jones and Golladay. I don’t think Lions fans should have any false hope that their team can slow down Tom Brady and the Patriots offense here. Detroit’s two best defensive players, Ezekiel Ansah and Darius Slay are both expected to miss this game. That leaves the Lions defense completely exposed in this particular matchup. Brady should have little trouble carving up this Detroit secondary in particular, and will have no shortage of motivation after suffering that ugly loss in Jacksonville last Sunday. Expect to see both offenses keep their foot on the gas pedal for four quarters in ideal conditions indoors at Ford Field. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-23-18 | Chargers v. Rams OVER 47.5 | 23-35 | Win | 100 | 20 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between the Los Angeles Chargers and Los Angeles Rams at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I’ll back the ‘over’ at the L.A. Coliseum on Sunday afternoon. As long as linebacker Joey Bosa remains sidelined, the Chargers defense will continue to struggle. He’s out again this week and that leaves them in a really tough spot against one of the league’s best offenses in the Rams. There’s little reason to expect the Chargers to offer any sort of resistance against Todd Gurley and head coach Sean McVay will continue to put Jared Goff in position to succeed with a wealth of talented weapons around him. The interesting thing is that the ‘under’ has actually cashed in each of the Rams first two games. That has had more to do with the opposition than anything else, as they’ve gone up against two of the league’s more limited offenses in the Raiders and Cardinals. They’ll face their first real test here as the Chargers can score. Missing Corey Liuget from the offensive line certainly hurts their cause, but I still expect to see them manufacture a number of scoring drives against this tough Rams defense. Look for Keenan Allen in particular to turn in a big performance after not being asked to do very much against the lowly Bills last Sunday. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-23-18 | Saints v. Falcons OVER 53 | 43-37 | Win | 100 | 17 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between New Orleans and Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday. I really like the way this one sets up as a shootout at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Sunday afternoon. We’ve actually cashed a number of ‘under’ tickets in this series over the years but I won’t hesitate to switch gears in this particular matchup. The Saints were somewhat surprisingly held to only 21 points against the Browns last Sunday, at home no less. That has most wondering whether they can get rolling again in this tough divisional road game. I don’t think the Saints will have any problem shaking loose offensively in this one, as they go up against a Falcons defense that is banged up, missing Keanu Neal and Deion Jones. Those injuries can’t be understated, especially when you consider the way the Saints like to attack. Look for another big game from New Orleans RB Alvin Kamara, who should be able to enjoy similar success to what we saw from Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey last week, when he caught 14 passes. I will say it’s hard to have a lot of faith in the Saints defense right now. Were they just a flash in the pan last season? It’s really too early to tell, but there’s no question the Falcons offense will look to attack early and often and I like the way they mixed things up last week, moving away from Julio Jones a little bit, particularly in the red zone after drawing so many questions following that disappointing Week 1 loss in Philadelphia. That’s not to say Jones won’t make a big impact here. He always seems to bring his ‘A’ game against the Saints and we should see a similar story unfold here. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-23-18 | Packers v. Redskins OVER 45 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 16 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Green Bay and Washington at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Redskins were involved in another low-scoring affair last week, putting only nine points on the board against the Colts. That of course came on the heels of a shutout victory in Arizona the week previous. Those two ‘under’ results are giving us some value with the ‘over’ here in Week 3 as Washington faces its toughest test of the season so far against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Green Bay is coming off a wild 29-29 result against the Vikings last Sunday. While Rodgers didn’t look completely comfortable early on in that game he eventually settled in, completing 30-of-42 passes for 281 yards and a touchdown. I expect to see him expand on those numbers here. I liked the fact that TE Jimmy Graham got going with six catches for 95 yards against the Vikes. He should have continued success against the ‘Skins in this spot. The Washington offense couldn’t get anything going against an improved Indianapolis defense defense last week but will be taking a step down in class here. There are going to be games where the Redskins offense really struggles this season. With that being said, I see this as a matchup they can exploit. The Packers are not all that stout over the middle and Washington has a QB in Alex Smith that excels in the short passing game, with a couple of targets that could be in for big days in TE Jordan Reed and pass-catching RB Chris Thompson. After failing to reach the end zone last week, putting 6’s on the board will clearly be a point of emphasis for Jay Gruden’s squad against the Packers. They know that ending drives with field goals won’t be enough to outlast Aaron Rodgers and that mentality lends itself to a relatively high-scoring affair at FedEx Field on Sunday afternoon. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-23-18 | Saints +2 v. Falcons | 43-37 | Win | 100 | 16 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Falcons did well to avoid an 0-2 hole to open the season with a big home win over the division-rival Panthers last Sunday. I’m not sure they’ll fare so well this week, however, as they welcome another NFC South opponent in the New Orleans Saints. To say that injuries are piling up at key positions for the Falcons would be an understatement. Safety Keanu Neal, linebacker Deion Jones and running back Devonta Freeman were already sidelined and now guard Andy LeVitre has been placed on IR as well. On the flip side, the Saints roll into town generally healthy, although still missing suspended running back Mark Ingram. New Orleans has taken an interesting path to 1-1, suffering a surprising loss to the Bucs in its opener before rebounding with a less than inspiring win over the Browns last Sunday. The identical 1-1 starts certainly ramp up the importance of this game for both of these squads but I believe the Saints are in better position to move on-up on the .500 mark here. The Falcons generally concede underneath passing routes to opposing running backs and were subsequently lit up by Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey last week. There’s little reason to expect anything different against perhaps an even better pass-catching back in Alvin Kamara this week. On top of that, Saints WR Michael Thomas should find plenty of open field against the Falcons undermanned secondary and Drew Brees is undoubtedly in line for a big bounce-back performance following last week’s relatively poor showing. On the other side of the football, the Saints defense is better than it has shown so far this season. It took a step in the right direction last week but still suffered some lapses, including that game-tying touchdown hook-up between Tyrod Taylor and Antonio Callaway last week. The Falcons multi-dimensional offense poses a tough challenge but I’m confident the Saints defense will make enough plays to secure a victory. Take New Orleans (10*). | |||||||
09-23-18 | Raiders v. Dolphins -3 | Top | 20-28 | Win | 100 | 16 h 18 m | Show |
NFL Game of the Week. My selection is on Miami minus the points over Oakland at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Raiders are in a truly tough situation here. After starting the season on the west coast with a home game against the Rams, they traveled to the thin air of Denver last week and now have to trek across the rest of the country for an early start in Miami on Sunday afternoon. The Dolphins have generally had a solid home field advantage early in the season and already 1-0 SU and ATS at home here in 2018. I like the Dolphins chances of improving to a somewhat improbable 3-0 this week. We’ve seen this story unfold before. Remember, back in 2016 the Dolphins enjoyed plenty of success with the Adam Gase-Ryan Tannehill combo. When asked to be more or less a game manager, Tannehill has proven that he can succeed. In fact, the Fins are 9-1 in Tannehill’s last 10 starts. The Raiders couldn’t have played much better than they did last Sunday in Denver but they still fell short in the end. I can’t see them getting back to that level of effort and execution in their second straight road contest this Sunday. Their offense did show some positive signs against the Broncos, but let’s face it, the Denver defense isn’t what it once was, especially against the pass. I actually feel the Fins can hold up much better than the Broncos did against Derek Carr and the Raiders passing game. On the other side of the football, the Raiders don’t have the personnel in place to get after opposing quarterbacks which sets up nicely for Tannehill. Look for him to have a field day against this Oakland defense, and for the overlooked Miami ground attack to ultimately salt away another victory. Take Miami (10*). | |||||||
09-22-18 | UNLV v. Arkansas State OVER 66.5 | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between UNLV and Arkansas State at 7 pm et on Saturday. This may not be a traditional shootout as I anticipate both teams ripping off their biggest gains on the ground, but I’m expecting a high-scoring result just the same. UNLV comes in with plenty of positive momentum following back-to-back blowout wins over UTEP and FCS squad Prairie View A&M. In those two games, the Runnin’ Rebels scored a whopping 98 points, thanks in large part to an explosive rushing attack. In each of the last two games, UNLV has had two players run for more than 100 yards and there’s a good chance we’ll see a similar story unfold on Saturday night in Jonesboro. Arkansas State has been involved in three very different games to open the season, and like UNLV has managed to win two of them. The Red Wolves opened the campaign with a rout of Southeast Missouri State before getting their doors blown off at Alabama and finally outlasting Tulsa in a bit of a slugfest last week. A return home should get the Red Wolves offense humming again, noting that QB Justice Hansen threw for six touchdowns in their lone previous contest here. Even against Alabama, Arkansas State was able to get its ground game rolling a little bit and it should have little trouble doing so against a porous UNLV defense. The Rebels have yet to show they can slow anyone down running the football and that should open things up for a wild, back-and-forth affair on Saturday night. We’re dealing with a high posted total for a reason. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-22-18 | Mississippi State v. Kentucky UNDER 56 | Top | 7-28 | Win | 100 | 36 h 6 m | Show |
NCAAF SEC Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Mississippi State and Kentucky at 7 pm et on Saturday. I’ll back the ‘under’ in Lexington on Saturday night. This is a showdown between two undefeated SEC squads and sets up as a potential slugfest as far as I’m concerned. It’s certainly not being priced that way as far as the total goes, however. While Mississippi State’s offense has grabbed all of the attention, it’s been the Bulldogs defense that I’ve been most impressed by. Through three games they’ve allowed a grand total of just 26 points and have yet to give up more than 10 points in a game. Last week’s rout of Louisiana-Lafayette may have looked like and played out like a cupcake matchup, but the Ragin’ Cajuns had scored 49 points in their season-opener and Sun Belt squads never shy away from dialing up their offense in non-conference matchups. The Bulldogs allowed an early first quarter field goal but then held the Ragin’ Cajuns scoreless until more than midway through the fourth quarter in that one. In a tougher test on the road against Kansas State, Mississippi State didn’t allow a touchdown until the final three minutes of the third quarter. Kentucky has given up just 46 points through three games and has seemingly gotten stronger defensively with each passing game. The Wildcats were certainly impressive in their lone true test so far this season, allowing only 16 points on the road against Florida two weeks ago. They held the Gators out of the end zone until midway through the second quarter in that contest. The Kentucky offense scored an early touchdown against Murray State last week but then didn’t reach the end zone again until the final two minutes of the first half. I believe both defenses can keep the opposing offenses at bay for stretches in this Saturday night showdown. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-22-18 | Troy v. UL-Monroe UNDER 60.5 | 35-27 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Troy and Louisiana-Monroe at 7 pm et on Saturday. We’re dealing with a high posted total in this Sun Belt matchup on Saturday night in Monroe and I believe it will prove too high. Troy was involved in a slugfest at Nebraska last week. Of course, that low-scoring affair had a lot to do with the Cornhuskers missing their starting quarterback. Still, I’ll give credit to the Trojans defense for keeping Nebraska out of the end zone until the final three minutes of the first half and not allowing it to get there again until shifting into prevent defense in the game’s final three minutes. Since getting absolutely torched by Boise State in its season-opener, Troy has been able to gain some confidence on the defensive side of the football leading up to this Sun Belt opener. Offensively, it’s tough to know what to make of the Trojans as their lone explosion came at home against FCS squad Florida A&M. I do believe that Louisiana-Monroe can hold up better than it did in last year’s meeting, when it allowed a whopping 51 points. While the Warhawks ultimately lost in blowout fashion on the road against Texas A&M last week, they did hold their own for a while, allowing only two offensive touchdowns in the first half. That game may have turned on a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown by the Aggies in the final two minutes of the first half. The week previous, Louisiana-Monroe went on the road and kept Southern Miss out of the end zone for the entire second half in a 21-20 victory. The Warhawks only managed two offensive touchdowns themselves in that one, adding another touchdown on a fumble recovery in the end zone. This game may have shootout potential but I believe the familiarity between these two squads, along with the fact that both are coming off physical matchups last week, will lead to a lower-scoring game than most are anticipating on Saturday. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-22-18 | TCU -3 v. Texas | 16-31 | Loss | -105 | 32 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on TCU minus the points over Texas at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. I’ll lay the short number with the Horned Frogs as they head to Austin on Saturday afternoon. TCU is fresh off a tough 40-28 loss to Ohio State in Dallas last Saturday night. It got off to a tough start in that game, falling behind 10-0 following a fumble that was returned for a touchdown midway through the first quarter. From there, the Horned Frogs stuck around and actually led midway through the third quarter. However, the Buckeyes returned an interception for a touchdown shortly after that and rolled from there. I’m anticipating a much sharper effort from TCU this week as Texas will certainly warrant its attention following the Longhorns 37-14 rout of USC last week. We faded Texas in its season-opener and were rewarded with an outright Maryland victory. The Longhorns followed that up with a rather unimpressive 28-21 home win over Tulsa. They took advantage of an under-achieving Trojans squad at home last Saturday night, buoyed by a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown midway through the third quarter. Again, I’m expecting a much cleaner performance from TCU this week – I certainly don’t expect to see the Horned Frogs give the Longhorns any freebies. There’s no look-ahead in play here as TCU will return home to host Iowa State next week before heading into its bye week. I simply feel the Horned Frogs are being knocked down a little too far following last week’s setback. Take TCU (10*). | |||||||
09-22-18 | TCU v. Texas UNDER 47.5 | 16-31 | Win | 100 | 31 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between TCU and Texas at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. We're dealing with a relatively low posted total in this game but that number is warranted in my opinion. We missed the mark with the 'under' in TCU's 40-28 loss to Ohio State last week but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. That game really got away from the Horned Frogs as a result of a couple of defensive scores by the Buckeyes, something we can never truly account for in our handicapping. Here, I look for the Horned Frogs defense to hold up well against a Texas offense that is good but certainly not great. Last week, the Longhorns delivered a 37-14 win over USC although it's worth noting they didn't reach the end zone until the second quarter in that game and were ultimately buoyed by a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown in the third quarter. That game saw a scoreless fourth quarter. Note that these two programs met last November and TCU delivered a low-scoring 24-7 victory. This one may not stay in the 30's but I do believe it will stay 'under' the total that we're being offered. To put it simply, this is a matchup between two of the Big 12's best defenses. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-22-18 | Arizona v. Oregon State +7 | Top | 35-14 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 6 m | Show |
NCAAF Pac-12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Oregon State plus the points over Arizona at 4 pm et on Saturday. I’ll grab the points with the Beavers in what most are expecting to be a shootout in Corvallis on Saturday afternoon. Arizona isn’t where it hoped to be at this stage of the season, having won just once in its first three games. That victory came against FCS squad Southern Utah last week. While the Wildcats offense finally got going in that game, their defensive performance left a lot to be desired once again, as they allowed 31 points. It’s also worth noting that after an early first quarter touchdown, the Wildcats didn’t reach the end zone again on offense until the final 30 seconds of the first half. Were it not for a kick return touchdown early in the second quarter, that game could have played out differently. Oregon State also checks in 1-2 and while it had to be disappointed with last week’s narrow two-point loss to Nevada, that setback came on the road and I don’t think the Beavers are all that down on themselves following a 1-2 start (their other loss came on the road against Ohio State in Week 1). If nothing else, the Beavers offense has been humming along, and I liked the way they didn’t back down despite digging an early 30-7 hole at Nevada last week. Oregon State reeled off three consecutive touchdowns to get back in the game but ultimately fell just short. I don’t think there’s any question the Beavers will see this as a winnable game to open their Pac-12 slate. We’re being offered a generous cushion in a game that I believe could go either way. Take Oregon State (10*). | |||||||
09-22-18 | Texas A&M v. Alabama UNDER 62 | 23-45 | Loss | -115 | 31 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Texas A&M and Alabama at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I’ll back the ‘under’ in Tuscaloosa on Saturday afternoon. Texas A&M had little trouble bouncing back from a narrow loss to Clemson one week earlier, as it hammered Louisiana-Monroe 48-10 last Saturday. Now things get a whole lot tougher once again as the Aggies head out on the SEC road to face Alabama. Note that despite scoring 48 points in last week’s rout, the Aggies actually only managed two offensive touchdowns in the first half (they scored another on a blocked field goal return). Their ground game ultimately wore out the Warhawks in the second half and they added a couple of late scores to pad their lead, but it’s unlikely we’ll see the Crimson Tide wilt as this game progresses. Alabama has yet to be tested this season, rolling to blowout wins over Louisville, Arkansas State and Ole Miss. I do believe the Tide offense will face some resistance in this one. Remember, the Aggies did manage to limit an outstanding Clemson offense to only two first half touchdowns two weeks ago, and held the Tigers to just 17-of-27 through the air for less than 300 passing yards. Last year’s meeting between these two programs reached only 46 total points. We’re dealing with a much higher total this time around and I believe it will prove to be too high. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-22-18 | Tulane v. Ohio State UNDER 69 | 6-49 | Win | 100 | 19 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Tulane and Ohio State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I'm not sure where all of the points are going to come from in this game. Ohio State is coming off a huge 40-28 win over TCU last week and could suffer a bit of a hangover as it returns home to host a cupcake matchup with Tulane. I'm not convinced we'll see the Buckeyes keep their foot on the gas pedal for four quarters in a game that should get out of hand in a hurry. Meanwhile, Tulane scored 42 points in its lone victory over FCS squad Nicholls State but just 41 points in its two other games combined, both losses against Wake Forest and UAB. I have a hard time envisioning the Green Wave scoring more than 14 points in this matchup. If that's the case, Ohio State would have to approach the 60-point mark to eclipse this posted total. I simply feel that this total has gotten out of hand. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-22-18 | Louisville v. Virginia UNDER 55 | 3-27 | Win | 100 | 30 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Louisville and Virginia at 12:30 pm et on Saturday. Last year’s meeting between these two teams approached the 60-point mark but I expect a much different story to play out on Saturday afternoon. Louisville’s offense isn’t the same in the wake of QB Lamar Jackson’s departure to the NFL. The Cardinals are 2-1 to start the season and that was to be expected given the opened up with Alabama before hosting Indiana State and Western Kentucky. While their poor offensive showing against Indiana State could be blamed largely on bad weather, there was really no excuse for scoring only 20 points, albeit in a win, against Western Kentucky last week. The Cardinals didn’t reach the end zone until the fourth quarter in that game. While they did give up a pair of first half scores, the Cards defense did toughen up the rest of the way and knows it will have to be even better against a quality opponent in Virginia this week. After manhandling Richmond and allowing only 20 points in a losing effort on the road against Indiana, the Cavaliers were put back on their heels a little bit at home against Ohio last week. That one turned into a shootout early on and we saw Virginia struggling to hang on defensively at times. We have seen this Cavs defense play well for extended stretches this season, however, and a date with the struggling Cardinals offense should benefit them here at home on Saturday. This may not turn out to be a defensive slugfest but I believe asking for nearly seven touchdowns to be scored is a bit much. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-22-18 | Georgia v. Missouri OVER 64.5 | 43-29 | Win | 100 | 27 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Georgia and Missouri at 12 noon et on Saturday. I’m anticipating a shootout as the Bulldogs and Tigers renew acquaintances in an early matchup on Saturday afternoon. Georgia has scored 40+ points in all three games so far this season but will be facing its toughest test to date against undefeated Missouri. I think the bigger concern for the Bulldogs will be slowing down a Mizzou offense that has put up an impressive 131 points through three games. Even last week, as the Tigers hit the road for the first time this season, they absolutely lit it up, hanging 27 points on Purdue in the first half alone on the strength of three offensive touchdowns. Doing that against a defense as good as the Bulldogs is another matter entirely, but it is worth noting that they managed to score 28 points against Georgia in last year’s meeting. I like the way the Missouri passing offense sets up against the Bulldogs and I expect to see it bomb away for four quarters on Saturday afternoon. Keeping in mind that Mizzou allowed three offensive touchdowns in the first half against Purdue last week and Georgia hung six touchdowns, including five on offense, against Middle Tennessee State, I don’t believe the ‘Dawgs will have much trouble shredding the Tigers on Saturday. We’re dealing with a relatively high posted total in this one, but it’s warranted in my opinion. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-21-18 | Washington State v. USC UNDER 53 | 36-39 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Washington State and USC at 10:30 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' in Los Angeles on Friday night. The 'over' has gone a combined 4-2 in games involving these two Pac-12 squads so far this season. Washington State really shook loose offensively last week, scoring 59 points in a blowout win over Eastern Washington but that was to be expected. After facing Wyoming, San Jose State and aforementioned Eastern Washington this will obviously be the Cougars toughest test to date. While the Washington State defense can be vulnerable at times, it's not as if the USC offense has been rolling. The Trojans managed only two touchdowns last Saturday night against Texas. The week previous USC traveled to face Stanford and could only muster a field goal. Even against UNLV, the Trojans didn't score a touchdown until the final two minutes of the first half. While the Trojans did allow 37 points in Saturday's loss to the Longhorns, it gave up just one touchdown in the first half, and Texas returned a blocked field goal for a touchdown in the third quarter. The 'under' has gone 3-0 in the last three meetings in this series and while we're dealing with a relatively low total this time around, I believe it's warranted. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-20-18 | Jets v. Browns UNDER 40.5 | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 23 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between New York and Cleveland at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. This is certainly a low posted total by today’s NFL standards but I have a tough time envisioning a game between these two teams eclipsing the number. The Jets absolutely exploded in their Week 1 win at Detroit, on Monday Night Football no less, and it’s apparent that most bettors are willing to give them a pass for last week’s stinker at home against the Dolphins. We won with the ‘under’ in that 20-12 loss this past Sunday and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Sam Darnold certainly looks like he has a bright NFL career ahead of him, but it’s still awfully early to be anointing him as the ‘next big thing’. He’ll face another tough challenge here, preparing for an underrated Browns defense on a short week. Simply put, I don’t see the Jets really expanding the playbook for Darnold in this particular matchup. Meanwhile, Cleveland is just trying to win a football game right now. The Browns have scratched and clawed their way to two near-misses against the Steelers and Saints, with little help from their offense, and certainly not from their kicking game. Like Darnold, Tyrod Taylor will be up against it here, even though the Jets don’t offer much of a pass rush - they will present some varied looks in the defensive backfield. I actually expect Taylor to have more success running the football than he will throwing it on Thursday night, which will help keep the clock moving. While special teams and defensive scores can always ruin an ‘under’ bet in this point range, I’m not going to let that steer me away from making this play on Thursday night. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-20-18 | Tulsa v. Temple UNDER 58 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 71 h 2 m | Show |
NCAAF AAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Tulsa and Temple at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' at Lincoln Financial Field on Thursday night. Tulsa has suffered back-to-back losses since opening the season with a win over FCS squad Central Arkansas. Even in that 38-27 win over Central Arkansas, the Golden Hurricane were only at 24 points until a couple of late fourth quarter scores put the game away. In their second game against Texas they didn't find the end zone until the final two minutes of the third quarter. Then last week against Arkansas State, Tulsa scored a touchdown midway through the first quarter but then didn't hit paydirt again until the fourth quarter. We won with the 'under' in Temple's surprising blowout win at Maryland last Saturday. That game got to 49 total points but it's worth noting that it featured three defensive or special teams touchdowns. Prior to that, the Owls had started the season 0-2 and in their last game didn't score a touchdown until the final play of the first half against a middle of the road Buffalo defense. In the Owls season-opener against FCS squad Villanova they didn't find the end zone until past midway through the third quarter. With all of that said, their defense has held up pretty well and I would expect more of the same on Thursday night. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-20-18 | Royals v. Tigers UNDER 8.5 | 8-11 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' at Comerica Park on Thursday night. Jorge Lopez will take the ball for the Royals. He is coming off a tough start against the Twins last time out, allowing three earned runs on nine hits over just 4 1/3 innings of work. Prior to that he had worked 15 innings and gave up just two earned runs on six hits over his last two starts. Matthew Boyd will counter for Detroit. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in each of his last 10 starts. Over his last two outings, Boyd has given up just three earned runs on five hits over 12 1/3 innings, striking out 18 and walking only three along the way. That's despite the fact that those two starts came against two quality opponents in the Cardinals and Indians. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-20-18 | Mets v. Nationals UNDER 8 | 5-4 | Loss | -114 | 22 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' at Nationals Park on Thursday night. Jason Vargas will get the nod for the Mets. His overall numbers are absolutely dreadful this season but he has turned things around since mid-August. Dating back to August 14th, Vargas has worked at least into the sixth inning in five of six starts, allowing two earned runs or less in five of those starts as well. One of those starts came against the same Nationals he'll face on Thursday. In that outing he gave up just three hits, struck out eight and didn't issue a walk over six shutout innings. Max Scherzer will counter for the Nationals. He owns a stellar 2.50 ERA and 0.88 WHIP at home this season. Scherzer is coming off a rocky outing against the Braves last time out as he gave up six earned runs on seven hits over four innings. The 'over' has now cashed in his last two starts, however, only twice previously this season has he seen a stretch of more than two consecutive 'over' results, the last coming during a five-start 'over' streak from July 7th to August 2nd. Scherzer owns solid career numbers against the Mets having given up one earned run or less in five of his last nine starts against them. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-19-18 | Cubs v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8 | 0-9 | Loss | -113 | 25 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' at Chase Field on Wednesday night. Cole Hamels will get the nod for the Cubs. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in seven of his last eight starts. Last time out he gave up just two earned runs over 6 2/3 innings of work against the Reds. Note that the 'under' has gone 7-1 over his last eight outings. Robbie Ray will counter for Arizona. He has allowed just six earned runs over his last five starts, spanning 28 innings pitched. The 'under' has cashed in four of those five contests. Ray hasn't been at his best here at home this season but I prefer to look at his current form, which shows a 2.04 ERA and 0.85 WHIP over his last three starts. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-19-18 | Giants v. Padres UNDER 7.5 | 4-8 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and San Diego at 9:10 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' at Petco Park on Wednesday night. Chris Stratton will take the ball for the Giants. He's coming off a complete game shutout and has worked at least six innings in four of his last five starts. The 'under' has cashed in each of his last four outings. While he did throw 114 pitches in his last start, the last time he threw more than 100 pitches he came back and gave up just two earned runs on three hits over six innings in his next outing. Robbie Erlin will counter for San Diego. He is coming off a fine start, having allowed just one earned run on six hits over 5 1/3 innings against the Rangers, needing only 72 pitches to get through that outing. The 'under' has cashed in four of his last six starts overall. Erlin owns a 2.80 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 54 2/3 innings pitched at home this season. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-19-18 | Cardinals v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Atlanta at 12:10 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' in Atlanta on Wednesday afternoon. Jack Flaherty will take the ball for the Cardinals. He has been lights out in afternoon action this season, posting a 2.14 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Note also that Flaherty has recorded a 2.96 ERA and 1.09 WHIP on the road this season. He has allowed one earned run or less in five of his last six starts overall. Touki Toussaint will counter for Atlanta. The Braves clearly have faith in their rookie starter giving him the nod in this crucial late season matchup. Toussaint has certainly held his own in three starts this season, working at least into the sixth inning in two of three outings, while needing only 64 pitches to go 4 2/3 innings against the Red Sox in his other start. In two home starts, Toussaint has allowed only four earned runs on six hits over 10 2/3 innings of work. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-18-18 | Rockies v. Dodgers UNDER 7 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 25 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'under' at Dodgers Stadium on Tuesday night. Kyle Freeland will take the ball for the Rockies. He checks in having worked at least six innings in eight straight starts. Last time out he worked into the seventh inning and needed only 82 pitches to do so. He hasn't thrown more than 100 pitches in any of his last four outings. Los Angeles will turn to its ace, Clayton Kershaw. He's coming off a bit of an un-Kershaw-like performance last time out but with that being said, he still held his own, giving up just three earned runs over six innings against the Cardinals. He needed just 92 pitches to get through those six frames. Note that Kershaw owns a 2.70 ERA and 1.00 WHIP at home this season. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-18-18 | Giants v. Padres UNDER 7 | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and San Diego at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'under' at Petco Park on Tuesday night. Derek Holland has been an 'under' machine on the road this season, posting a 3-13-1 o/u mark. There's been no real discernible difference between his performance at home and on the road as he's quite simply enjoyed a renaissance year for the Giants. Note that Holland has worked at least six innings in each of his last four outings. Joey Lucchesi will counter for the Padres. He was limited to five innings in his last two starts but needed only 74 and 86 pitches to get through those two outings. He'll be facing a Giants club that simply isn't scoring right now. Note that Lucchesi has allowed three earned runs or less in four straight starts. Take the under (10*). |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ricky Tran | $756 |
ProSportsPicks | $632 |
Joseph D'Amico | $510 |
Joey Tron | $450 |
Tom Macrina | $399 |
Nick Parsons | $344 |
Sean Murphy | $306 |
Jack Jones | $303 |
William Burns | $233 |
Dan Kaiser | $220 |