Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11-26-22 | Jazz v. Suns -6.5 | 112-113 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Utah at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. No question the Suns have had this one circled since dropping a wild 134-133 decision in Salt Lake City on November 18th. The Jazz quite simply shot the lights out in that game, knocking down 51-of-91 field goal attempts in the narrow victory. Here, Phoenix catches Utah in a 3-in-4 situation, playing in a third different city over that stretch. The Jazz have had now answers defensively, allowing four of their last six opponents to get off more than 90 field goal attempts and their last three foes to make good on 47, 44 and 52 field goals. That spells trouble as they face a red hot Suns squad that has knocked down 42+ field goals in six straight games. On the flip side, Phoenix has rounded back into form defensively, holding its last three opponents to 34, 36 and 39 made field goals (the latter came on 92 FG attempts from the Pistons last night). Take Phoenix (8*). | |||||||
11-26-22 | Stars +142 v. Avalanche | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas over Colorado at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. I'm not completely convinced that the Avalanche are the better team in this matchup, yet we're being given a very generous price to back the Stars, likely due to the fact they're off a hard-fought overtime loss to the Jets last night while Colorado was idle thanks to a water main break in Nashville. The Stars have undoubtedly had this game circled on their calendars since suffering a 3-2 home loss to the Avalanche earlier this week. Dallas has proven to be more than just a 'tough out' on the road this season, going 6-5 while outscoring the opposition by 1.0 goal per contest. The Avs are off a stunning 4-3 home loss to the Canucks and are just an even 4-4 here in Denver this season. Take Dallas (8*). | |||||||
11-26-22 | Air Force v. San Diego State +2 | Top | 13-3 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 14 m | Show |
My selection is on San Diego State plus the points over Air Force at 9 pm et on Saturday. San Diego State has risen from the ashes following a poor 2-3 start to the campaign, winning five of its last six contests to firmly plant itself in the Bowl picture. Both Air Force and San Diego State are in uncharted territory here, riding respective three-game winning streaks. There's no question it's the Aztecs that are playing better football, however, noting that Air Force has gone just 1-3 ATS over its last four contests and 2-5 ATS over its last seven overall. Meanwhile, San Diego State checks in 4-1 ATS over its last five games. You know the saying; good teams win, great teams cover. While I'm not sure we should be crowning this San Diego squad as 'great', I do think it is good enough to hand Air Force a 10th consecutive loss in this series going all the way back to 2010. Take San Diego State (10*). | |||||||
11-26-22 | Lakers v. Spurs +3 | 143-138 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Los Angeles at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the Spurs (again) last night. Once again, we saw them push the pace, getting off 100 field goal attempts, but failing to make those opportunities count in a nine-point loss to the same Lakers they'll face on Saturday. Another positive, San Antonio limited Los Angeles to 83 field goal attempts. It has now held six consecutive opponents to 85 or fewer FG attempts. Teams continue to shoot exceptionally well on this admittedly poor Spurs defense, but I do think we see Pop's crew step up in that regard tonight. Note that the Lakers are a woeful 5-17 ATS after giving up 95 points or fewer in a game over the last three seasons, outscored by 2.5 points on average in that situation. Take San Antonio (8*). | |||||||
11-26-22 | Maple Leafs v. Penguins -1.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh -1.5 goals over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. I'm excited at the prospect of such a generous return laying the extra goal with the Penguins in this matchup on Saturday in Pittsburgh. We unsuccessfully faded the Leafs in yesterday's 4-3 win in Minnesota. The Wild certainly didn't put forth their best effort in that contest, looking very much like a team that enjoyed the Thanksgiving festivities a little too much a day earlier. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh was sharp again last evening, delivering a 4-1 win in Philadelphia that didn't appear to empty much out of their tank. Pittsburgh has now won five games in a row with four of those victories coming by two goals or more. I expect another comfortable victory here against a Leafs team whose back-to-back wins have masked what I still feel are deficiencies at the back-end. Take Pittsburgh -1.5 goals (8*). | |||||||
11-26-22 | Oregon v. Oregon State +3 | 34-38 | Win | 100 | 18 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oregon State plus the points over Oregon at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. Going into Corvallis and coming away with a victory isn't easy. Oregon knows that as it dropped its most recent trip here as a near-two touchdown favorite in 2020. On Saturday, I look for a revenge-minded Beavers squad (after losing last year's matchup by a score of 38-29) to play spoiler against the rival Ducks. Oregon is in a clear letdown spot here off a big win over Utah last week, as it successfully avenged a pair of losses suffered at the hands of the Utes last season, including one in the Pac-12 Championship Game. Noting that the Beavers have gone a perfect 11-0 ATS in their last 11 lined home games, we'll confidently back them in an underdog role here. Take Oregon State (8*). | |||||||
11-26-22 | Purdue -10.5 v. Indiana | 30-16 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Purdue minus the points over Indiana at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I really like the set-up for this play as Indiana returns home off an upset win over Michigan State in overtime last week, all but dashing its hopes of Bowl eligibility. It's not as if the Hoosiers had been playing good football - they entered that contest losers of three straight games ATS. Since dropping consecutive games against Wisconsin and Iowa, Purdue has managed to win its last two contests and is now in the position to potentially reach the Big Ten Championship Game with a win after Iowa was upset by Nebraska yesterday. Here, we'll note that Indiana is 0-7 ATS the last seven times it has come off an outright win as a double-digit underdog, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 18.4 points in that situation. Take Purdue (8*). | |||||||
11-26-22 | Hawaii v. San Jose State -15 | 14-27 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Jose State minus the points over Hawaii at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. This is a smash spot for San Jose State as it limps home off a pair of tough losses against San Diego State and Utah State. The Spartans have now dropped the cash in five straight games but I'm confident they can turn it around right before Bowl season as they host a hapless Hawaii squad on Saturday. I say Hawaii is hapless but let's at least give it credit for outlasting UNLV at home last week. The Rainbow Warriors actually check in off consecutive ATS victories but I don't believe a third straight is in the cards, noting that they've gone 8-21 ATS the last 29 times they've played on the road off back-to-back ATS victories. San Jose boasts one of the best run defenses in the conference and should be able to make Hawaii one-dimensional here, ultimately pulling away for a convincing win. Take San Jose State (8*). | |||||||
11-26-22 | Oilers +130 v. Rangers | 4-3 | Win | 130 | 4 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Edmonton over New York at 1:05 pm et on Saturday. With the Rangers having won just four of their last 10 games and in a tough spot here returning home off a west coast road trip, I like the slumping Oilers to catch them by surprise on Saturday afternoon. Edmonton has had a couple of days off to digest a 3-0 loss to the Islanders on Wednesday - its second straight defeat to open this three-game road swing. There's no reason for the Oilers to be intimidated by this matchup on Saturday, noting that New York has been outscored by an average margin of 0.3 goals in its 10 home games this season. It's worth noting that while the Rangers did skate to a victory the last time these two teams met last season, they haven't recorded consecutive wins over Edmonton since taking five in a row in the series from 2015 to 2018. Since then, the Oilers are 5-1 in the last six meetings. Take Edmonton (8*). | |||||||
11-26-22 | Australia v. Tunisia +120 | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tunisia over Australia at 5 am et on Saturday. As expected, Tunisia proved very difficult for Denmark to break down in its World Cup opener, in fact that task proved impossible as the two teams played to a 0-0 draw. Here, with a chance to take over top spot in the group, albeit short-lived perhaps depending on how France fares later on Saturday, I look for the Tunisians to take advantage. Australia entered the tournament in fine form, but that had a lot to do with the lukewarm competition it had faced recently. After a quick start against France in its opener, hope was quickly dashed. While Tunisia did look rather punchless offensively in its opener, I expect it to enjoy a breakthrough in short order here. Take Tunisia (8*). | |||||||
11-25-22 | Wyoming +15 v. Fresno State | 0-30 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Wyoming plus the points over Fresno State at 10 pm et on Friday. Wyoming might not be the most exciting team to watch, unless you're a football purist. The Cowboys rarely throw the football, certainly shifting to a more run-centric offensive gameplan as the season has gone on. But they have an outstanding defense, not to mention a ground game that can carry the load offensively. After giving Boise State all it could handle in a three-point defeat (as a 14.5-point underdog) last week, I look for Wyoming to turn in a repeat performance against Fresno State on Friday. The Bulldogs are coming off a 41-14 rout of a disappointing Nevada squad last Saturday and enter this contest riding a six-game winning streak after opening the campaign with four losses in their first five games. I believe there's reason for Fresno State to be on 'upset alert' here, noting that it has been quite pedestrian in run defense this season, yielding 4.5 yards per rush attempt. After turning the football over three times in last week's narrow loss to Boise State, we can anticipate Wyoming going even more conservative here in an effort to effectively shorten proceedings as north of a two-touchdown underdog on the road. Having dropped three straight meetings in this series, including a 17-0 shutout defeat last year, look for the revenge-minded Cowboys to stick around for four quarters on Friday. Take Wyoming (8*). | |||||||
11-25-22 | Pistons v. Suns -12 | 102-108 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Detroit at 9:10 pm et on Friday. We'll fade the Pistons off their big upset win over the Jazz in Utah two nights ago as that marked their third consecutive ATS win, marking their longest such streak of the season. Detroit has shot exceptionally well over its last several games, knocking down 43, 47, 45 and 44 field goals over its last four contests, despite getting off fewer than 90 field goal attempts in three of those games. Here, it runs into a Suns squad that has limited eight of its last 10 opponents to 85 or fewer FG attempts and its last two foes to just 34 and 36 made field goals. On the flip side, Phoenix is playing at a tremendous pace and making the most of it, hoisting up 94 or more FG attempts in six of its last seven contests and making good on 43+ field goals in five straight games. Noting that the Suns are 22-10 ATS the last 32 times they've come off consecutive double-digit victories, I don't anticipate a letdown off a 10-point victory over the Lakers last time out. Take Phoenix (8*). | |||||||
11-25-22 | Lakers v. Spurs +5.5 | Top | 105-94 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Los Angeles at 8:10 pm et on Friday. We missed with the Spurs two nights ago as they fell in a big hole early in the game against the Pelicans and never recovered in a 19-point loss. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with San Antonio here, however, as it stays home to host the Lakers in a quick revenge spot after getting blown out 123-92 in Los Angeles on Sunday. While Los Angeles does check in 2-1-1 ATS over its last four contests, it isn't necessarily trending in the right direction at either end of the floor. Note that the Lakers have gotten off 85 or fewer field goal attempts in three straight games while allowing their last three opponents to hoist up 92, 105 and 102 field goal attempts. Meanwhile, the Spurs have actually held their last five opponents to 79, 83, 81, 85 and 82 FG attempts but each and every one of those teams have shot the lights out. Of course, that has a lot to do with the inept nature of the Spurs defense. Note, however, that the Lakers might not be fit to take full advantage as they've shot 45.5% or worse in five of six road games this season. Here, we'll note that San Antonio is a long-term 126-95 ATS when seeking revenge for a double-digit road loss against an opponent, as is the case here. Take San Antonio (10*). | |||||||
11-25-22 | Wizards v. Heat UNDER 212 | 107-110 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Miami at 8:10 pm et on Friday. This is the second instalment of a two-game set between these two teams in Miami after the Heat prevailed by a 113-105 score on Wednesday. That 'over' result has led to an adjustment to the total here, and I believe it's moving in the wrong direction. Washington continues to defend well, holding three straight and 11 of its 18 opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals this season. It has also been efficient offensively for the most part, although it needed to shoot better than 47% from the field to get to 42 made field goals and only 105 points in this same matchup two nights ago. The Wiz are averaging only 87 field goal attempts per game on the road this season while the Heat have held the opposition to 86 FG attempts per contest here at home. Miami has knocked down fewer than 40 field goals in six straight games including 35 and 39 in two games against Washington (the first of which was aided by overtime). It matched a season-high with 93 FG attempts in regulation time last time out yet still scored 'only' 113 points on 39 made field goals. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
11-25-22 | Nets v. Pacers +3 | 117-128 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Indiana plus the points over Brooklyn at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Nets have absolutely shot the lights out lately, knocking down 40+ field goals in five straight games and 44 or more in each of their last three. Yet they've still been held to 'only' 112 points or less in three of those contests as their pace still isn't up to par, getting off 83 or fewer field goal attempts in seven straight games. Meanwhile, they're playing with fire at the other end of the floor, as each of their last six foes have hoisted up 91 or more FG attempts with their last three getting off 99+. The Pacers are fit to take advantage, noting that they've made good on 41 or more field goals in six of their last eight games overall, despite attempting 90 or more field goals in only three of those contests. At the other end of the floor, Indiana has limited three of its last four opponents to 86 or fewer FG attempts and four of its last six foes to fewer than 40 makes. Last time out, the T'Wolves quite simply couldn't miss, shooting a ridiculous 61% from the field, yet still won by 'only' 14 points. Take Indiana (8*). | |||||||
11-25-22 | Pelicans v. Grizzlies OVER 227 | 111-132 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Friday. I like the set-up for this play as the first meeting between these two teams was lower-scoring than expected and the Grizzlies have actually seen the 'under' cash in three of their last five games overall, despite playing at a reasonably fast pace. Memphis has hoisted up more than 90 field goal attempts in five straight games entering Friday's contest. It has also made good on more than 40 field goals in consecutive games heading in, but comes off a loss to the Kings last time out. New Orleans has proven vulnerable defensively, allowing three of its last four opponents to knock down 41+ field goals. However, its offense has more than made up for it, making good on 42+ field goals in six straight contests and 49 and 47 over its last two games. Expect plenty of fireworks in this one. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
11-25-22 | Florida +10 v. Florida State | 38-45 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Florida plus the points over Florida State at 7:30 pm et on Friday. Not a difficult decision to back the Gators in this bounce-back spot off a 31-24 road loss against an improved Vanderbilt squad last week. Florida is just one-game removed from a two-game winning streak that saw it outscore Texas A&M and South Carolina by a 79-30 margin. Meanwhile, Florida State is fresh off its highest-scoring performance of the season, hanging 49 points on a weak Louisiana-Lafayette squad last Saturday. I never really like teams scheduling games like that at this late stage of the season as I feel it can throw them off course and result in a 'shock to the system' of sorts the next week (as these late season games tend to be difficult matchups). Entering off four straight ATS victories, I can't help but feel the Seminoles are overvalued here. Take Florida (8*). | |||||||
11-25-22 | Wolves v. Hornets +5 | 108-110 | Win | 100 | 6 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Charlotte plus the points over Minnesota at 5:10 pm et on Friday. With this line creeping up to +5 I'll step in with a play on the underdog Hornets on Friday. Charlotte is going to get its scoring opportunities, after all it has hoisted up 90+ field goal attempts in seven of its last nine games, knocking down 42+ field goals in six of its last seven contests. Minnesota, on the other hand, has been playing at a slower pace than we've come to expect out of it, getting off 85 or fewer FG attempts in eight of its last nine games. On the flip side, the T'Wolves last two opponents have racked up 90 and 96 FG attempts but have shot incredibly poor. Noting that Minnesota has won just once in the last five meetings in this series and that victory came at home, by only six points, we'll grab all the points we can get with the Hornets here. Take Charlotte (8*). | |||||||
11-25-22 | UCLA -10.5 v. California | Top | 35-28 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Week. My selection is on UCLA minus the points over California at 4:30 pm et on Friday. While some feel UCLA could be in for a letdown here off last week's tough 48-45 loss to USC, I don't expect anything of the sort. After all, the Bruins check in off consecutive losses and this serves as a 'get right' matchup against Cal. The Bears are coming off a 27-20 win over Stanford last week. Color me unimpresssed as they failed to reach the end zone until nearly four minutes into the third quarter in that victory. We successfully faded Cal two weeks back as it fell by a 38-10 score at Oregon State - a game in which it's offense was held out of the end zone for the entire 60 minutes (the Bears only touchdown came on a fumble return). While UCLA has given up a ton of points this season, a lot of that has been game-script related. The Bruins actually match up well here, noting that they've held the opposition to just 3.9 yards per rush this season and that's an area where Cal needs to made headway as when it gets pass-happy, it also tends to turn the football over. QB Jack Plummer has thrown just five touchdowns to go along with six interceptions over the last four games and is likely to be under duress most of the game on Friday. Take UCLA (10*). | |||||||
11-25-22 | Maple Leafs v. Wild -102 | 4-3 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota over Toronto at 2:05 pm et on Friday. The Wild are generally a streaky team, particularly on home ice and here we'll back them fresh off consecutive victories in the State of Hockey, as they host the Leafs, who are in a clear letdown spot after ending the Devils long winning streak two nights ago. I don't think there's any question, there's a valley between the Eastern and Western Conferences this season, with the West proving superior to this point. Toronto checks in just 3-6 against Western Conference opponents while Minnesota has gone an even 4-4 against the East. The fact that the Wild have held six of their last eight opponents to two goals or less has gone largely unnoticed. Off a season-high six-goal outburst in a win over Winnipeg on Wednesday, I look for Minnesota to keep it rolling here, noting that it has gone an incredible 39-12 in its last 51 home games when coming off a victory. Take Minnesota (8*). | |||||||
11-25-22 | Canadiens +108 v. Blackhawks | 3-2 | Win | 108 | 6 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Montreal over Chicago at 2:05 pm et on Friday. I'm not buying what the Blackhawks are selling this season and will gladly fade them for a second straight game on Friday afternoon. Chicago might not be the worst team in the NHL, but it's certainly in the conversation. Sporting a 4-1 third period lead in Dallas two nights ago, all seemed to be going well for the 'Hawks before they allowed five unanswered goals, not only failing to win, but not even managing to hold on for the puck-line cover. They're back home on Friday but that should offer little comfort as they've gone 4-6 while being outscored by 0.7 goals on average here at the United Center. Montreal successfully avenged a loss the week prior in Columbus two nights ago and will be revenge-minded again here after dropping both meetings against Chicago last season. Noting that the 'Hawks are a miserable 8-28 after giving up three goals or more in three consecutive games over the last two seasons, outscored by 1.4 goals on average in that situation, we'll confidently back the Habs here. Take Montreal (8*). | |||||||
11-25-22 | Ecuador v. Netherlands -130 | 1-1 | Loss | -130 | 14 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the Netherlands over Ecuador at 11 am et on Friday. The Netherlands appeared to get stronger as the match wore on against Senegal in its opener. That was a tough opponent to break down. I don't expect Ecuador to present the same level of difficulty on Friday, however. Credit Ecuador for overcoming host nation Qatar in its tournament-opener - the first time in World Cup history that the hosts lost their first match of the tourney. With that being said, Qatar didn't offer much of a challenge at all in that contest. Netherlands presents a 'shock to the system' of sorts for Ecuador here, and not helping matters is the fact that veteran striker Enner Valencia suffered a knee injury in the opener. While he is expected to play on Friday, it's unlikely he'll be 100% healthy. Speaking of injuries, Netherlands superstar Memphis Depay gave his country 30 solid minutes in the opener, easing his way into action but appearing no worse for wear. Look for an even more significant contribution from him in this one. Take the Netherlands (8*). | |||||||
11-25-22 | Senegal v. Qatar +1 | 3-1 | Loss | -135 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Qatar +1 goal over Senegal at 8 am et on Friday. Host Qatar looked lifeless in its tournament-opening loss to Ecuador - the team that many had picked to finish in last place in this group. Needless to say, a far more inspired effort will be required in order for the hosts to keep their slim hopes of advancement in this tournament alive as they face Senegal on Friday. Senegal put forth a valiant effort but ultimately fell on two late goals against Netherlands in its opener. I believe grabbing the insurance goal with host nation Qatar is the right decision here, especially considering both squads have seen four of their last five matches stay 'under' 2.5 total goals. Last Sunday's match marked the first time in five contests that Qatar didn't strike first. I do think we see it find the back of the net for the first time in the tournament on Friday, ultimately giving Senegal all it can handle in a cagey affair. Take Qatar +1 goal (8*). | |||||||
11-25-22 | Iran +0.5 v. Wales | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
World Cup Game of the Week. My selection is on Iran +0.5 goals over Wales at 5 am et on Friday. Entering this tournament, I felt that Wales would be hard-pressed to come away with a victory in a sneaky-tough group that includes USA, England and Iran. It managed to earn a draw against the Americans (we won with the draw in that match) thanks to a late converted penalty by Gareth Bale but I expect it to be given all it can handle against Iran again on Friday. The Iranians fell in a blowout against England in their World Cup opener. They were never competitive in that affair but I'm confident we'll see them bounce right back in a far more favorable matchup here. Despite the setback, we did see flashes of brilliance from the Iran attack. Here, I'm confident it will have more freedom to operate as it's unlikely to be under constant siege at the hands of a far more manageable Wales offense. Noting that Wales has conceded the first goal and also gone winless across its last six matches in all competitions, I'm comfortable grabbing the half-goal with Iran here. Take Iran +0.5 goals (10*). | |||||||
11-24-22 | Mississippi State v. Ole Miss UNDER 60.5 | Top | 24-22 | Win | 100 | 29 h 21 m | Show |
SEC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Mississippi State and Ole Miss at 7 pm et on Thursday. While this isn't Army-Navy, these two teams have now gone 'under' each of the last five times they've met over the last five seasons. I'm expecting that trend to continue on Thursday. The Bulldogs offense hasn't been the same high-octane scoring machine it was earlier in the campaign. Yes, they exploded for 56 points last Saturday, but that was against FCS squad East Tennessee State. They were held to fewer than 20 points in three of four games prior to that and in the other scored only three offensive touchdowns in regulation time against Auburn. It's been a similar story for Ole Miss as its offense has struggled as the schedule has toughened up. Last Saturday against Arkansas, the Rebels didn't score a touchdown until nearly a minute into the fourth quarter, when the game was already well in hand for the Razorbacks, up 42-6. Two games back against Alabama, Ole Miss couldn't muster a single point from seven minutes remaining in the third quarter on. Even the game prior to that, an eventual 31-28 win over Texas A&M, the Rebels scored a touchdown less than two minutes into the game but then didn't reach the end zone again until nearly midway through the third quarter. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
11-24-22 | Giants v. Cowboys UNDER 45.5 | Top | 20-28 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 13 m | Show |
NFC East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Dallas at 4:30 pm et on Thursday. Last Thanksgiving, we saw the Cowboys fall in a wild, high-scoring shootout against the Raiders (in overtime) but I expect a much different story to unfold in this year's instalment as Dallas draws a divisional foe in the New York Giants. Of course, the Giants allowed a season-high 31 points in last Sunday's home loss against the Lions. While they're dealing with some key injuries in the secondary, I do expect them to at the very least do a better job of defending the Cowboys than the Vikings did last Sunday (we won with Dallas and the 'under' in that game). The presence of DT Leonard Williams has certainly made a difference for New York's run defense, noting that it has held opponents to 4.3 yards per rush over the last three games (5.3 ypr allowed this season). Don't count on the Giants abandoning the run the way the Vikings did against Dallas last Sunday (that was largely game-script related as they fell behind big early). While RB Saquon Barkley hasn't been his usual dominant self in recent weeks, the G-Men will still want to get all they can out of him in an effort to churn out long, clock-eating drives to effectively shorten this contest as double-digit underdogs. New York, unlike Minnesota, also has a mobile quarterback that can help in minimizing the effectiveness of Dallas' ferocious pass rush. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a perfect 7-0 the last seven times the Giants have come off a game in which they allowed 31 or more points, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 31.5 points in that situation. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
11-24-22 | Bills v. Lions UNDER 54.5 | Top | 28-25 | Win | 100 | 25 h 4 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Buffalo and Detroit at 12:30 pm et on Thursday. This is the highest posted total on this week's NFL board and I believe it will prove too high at Ford Field on Thursday afternoon. The Bills offense 'should' have its way with a weak Lions defense in this one but I can't help but feel their ceiling is somewhat capped by QB Josh Allen's nagging elbow injury. He's coming off a poor performance against a very beatable Browns defense last Sunday and now plays on a short week, knowing he'll need to be somewhat cautious against an opportunistic Lions defense that has forced seven turnovers in the last three games. With injury concerns on their offensive line, I'm not expecting much from the Lions offense here. Speaking of capped ceilings, that's precisely what we've seen from Detroit's offense with QB Jared Goff at the helm. Note that while the Lions have scored 31 points in consecutive games, they've completed just 14, 19 and 17 passes for 137, 228 and 165 passing yards over their last three contests. I can't help but feel the optimal gameplan here involves making running backs Jamaal Williams and DeAndre Swift the focal point on Thursday afternoon, in an effort to churn out long, clock-eating drives to effectively shorten proceedings as a two-score underdog. Detroit's recent scoring spike has also had something to do with the fact that it has turned the football over just once over its last four games. It will need to be cautious here, however, noting that Buffalo has forced at least one turnover in seven straight games. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
11-24-22 | Ghana +1.5 v. Portugal | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Ghana +1.5 goals over Portugal at 11 am et on Thursday. Despite still boasting plenty of star-power, Portugal has been a bit of an afterthought heading into this tournament. Rightfully so, in my opinion. Should Cristiano Ronaldo even be given the starting nod up front given his recent form? Probably not but he'll be right there nonetheless. The Portuguese will have their work cut out for them trying to break down a typically tough last line of defense for Ghana. In their last seven matches across all competitions, only Brazil has managed to find the back of the net against the African side. It's been a case of 'feast-or-famine' for the Portugal offense in recent months. I think we're talking about a side that would be absolutely thrilled to come away with three points from this opener but I don't believe the path to that result is going to be straight-forward at all. Noting that the 'under' 2.5 total goals has cashed in four of Ghana's last five matches overall while it has rippled the net first in five of its last six contests, grabbing that insurance goal, even with the juice, is the right decision here in my opinion. Take Ghana +1.5 goals (8*). | |||||||
11-24-22 | South Korea v. Uruguay UNDER 2.25 | 0-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between South Korea and Uruguay at 8 am et on Thursday. This is another play where you'll want to look for an alternate total and pay the juice to get it at 2.5 rather than the standard 2.25 or even 2.0 being offered at some books. In a group where all four teams are capable of rising up and advancing, I'm expecting a very cagey affair between South Korea and Uruguay on Thursday. I'm just not sure where the goals are going to come from in this matchup. Even if one team is able to gain the upper hand early, there's no guarantee the other side will be able to find the equalizer. While Uruguay is fielding an aging roster led by 35-year old Luis Suarez up front, Korea was struck a blow with Son suffering an eye injury in the lead-up to this tournament - an injury that is expected to require surgery. Uruguay is always a tough side to break down defensively, noting that it enters this tourney having yielded just one goal across its last seven matches in all competitions. Korea has been a little more forgiving in that regard but again, I'm unsure whether Uruguay has the squad to take advantage. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
11-24-22 | Cameroon v. Switzerland OVER 2 | 0-1 | Loss | -145 | 7 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cameroon and Switzerland at 5 am et on Thursday. Do your line shopping for this play as I recommend paying the tariff to go 'over' a 2.0 rather than the standard 2.25 or even 2.5 being offered at some books. My reasoning behind this play is fairly simple. We've seen a string of low-scoring affairs in this tournament, including a number of dreaded 0-0 results. I do think we're going to see totals continue to shade lower - too low in this particular matchup in my opinion. Note that both squads get stronger as you move up the field. By that I mean both have their issues defensively with a number of defenders, not to mention both goalkeepers, entering this tournament in relatively poor form. Up front, it's a much different story. I'm confident we'll see Switzerland get off to a fast start here on the heels of a very strong showing at the Euros in Summer 2021. I also think Cameroon ultimately finds the back of the net once to help this total along. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
11-23-22 | Rangers -161 v. Ducks | 2-3 | Loss | -161 | 15 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Anaheim at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Ducks might not be the worst team in the NHL but they're certainly in the conversation. I don't see them picking themselves up off the mat on Wednesday, even as they catch the Rangers in a back-to-back spot off a 5-3 win in Los Angeles last night. New York has been a load for Anaheim to handle going back to last season, scoring 14 goals while taking all three meetings in this series. The Ducks simply aren't producing offensively right now, mustering two goals or less in three straight and five of their last six games overall. It won't get any easier against a Rangers squad that has held six consecutive opponents to three goals or less. Take New York (8*). | |||||||
11-23-22 | Blackhawks v. Stars -1.5 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
Central Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Dallas -1.5 goals over Chicago at 8:35 pm et on Wednesday. Things look like they're only going to get worse before they get better when it comes to the Blackhawks and I think they're in for another beatdown at the hands of the Stars in Dallas on Wednesday. Dallas has been one of the league's most impressive teams this season, checking in sporting an 11-5-3 record. However, it enters Wednesday's contest off a shootout loss to the defending Stanley Cup champion Avalanche two nights ago. I'm confident we'll see the Stars bounce back here as they host a reeling Blackhawks squad that has lost four straight games, all by two goals or more. A punchless offense and a leaky defense is always a bad combination and that's precisely what Chicago has right now, with no turnaround in sight. Take Dallas -1.5 goals (10*). | |||||||
11-23-22 | Pelicans v. Spurs +7.5 | Top | 129-110 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
Division Game of the Week. My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over New Orleans at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Spurs are limping home off an 0-5 road trip but I'm confident they can bounce back and give the Pelicans all they can handle on Wednesday night. It's not difficult to see that San Antonio's problems mostly lie at the defensive end of the floor. All five of the Spurs opponents on their most recent road trip shot better than 51% from the field. All is not lost, however, and I do think we see them turn it around, relatively-speaking, sooner rather than later. Note that San Antonio has actually held four straight opponents to 85 or fewer field goal attempts. On the flip side, the Spurs have managed to knock down 41 or more field goals in three of their last four games. Those two factors would have you thinking they would have at least been able to fare better than their 1-3 ATS mark over that stretch. I expect things to start to level out for them from an ATS perspective as they return home. Note that the Pelicans have been vulnerable defensively as well, allowing six of their last nine opponents to make good on 40 or more field goals. They quite simply shot the lights out in a rout of the Warriors (who were resting their stars in a back-to-back spot) two nights ago. Nothing came easy for them against the Spurs last season as San Antonio went 3-2 SU and ATS in five meetings, getting off 91, 93, 89, 92 and 91 FG attempts along the way. Take San Antonio (10*). | |||||||
11-23-22 | Nets v. Raptors -1.5 | 112-98 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto minus the points over Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the well-rested Raptors as they take the floor following a three-day break, hosting a Nets squad that just got dominated in Philadelphia last night. Brooklyn, once considered one of the league's better defensive teams, has been giving up far too many scoring opportunities with each of its last five opponents hoisting up 91 or more field goal attempts. The Nets have yielded a whopping 99 field goal attempts to each of their last two opponents. On the flip side, Brooklyn has gotten off 83 or fewer field goal attempts in six consecutive games. Its only saving grace has been the fact that it has shot the lights out in its last two contests - something I don't expect it to do against Toronto on Wednesday. The Raptors couldn't contain the Hawks fast-paced offense in Atlanta last time out but have still limited five of their last seven opponents to 84 or fewer FG attempts. Meanwhile, their own offense has been on an uptick despite a number of key contributors being out of the lineup, making good on 40, 44 and 48 field goals over their last three contests. Take Toronto (8*). | |||||||
11-23-22 | Mavs +4.5 v. Celtics | 112-125 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Boston at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. These two teams were involved in a pair of extremely tightly-contested games last season and I would expect nothing different in their first matchup this season. Boston was red hot heading into Monday's matchup with the revenge-minded Bulls in Chicago. There were warning signs, however, as the Celtics had allowed eight of their last 10 opponents to make good on more than 40 field goals. We can make that nine out of their last 11 now as Chicago knocked down 46 field goals in a convincing 121-107 victory. Now Boston will have to deal with a Dallas squad that has limited each of its last five opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals and will be in a foul mood off a one-point home loss against Denver on Sunday. The Mavericks have had their issues offensively but I'm confident a breakout is imminent and this looks like an ideal spot given the Celtics recent vulnerability defensively. With Boston's pace slowing over the last few games, getting off 88, 85 and 87 FG attempts over that stretch, and Dallas' tendency to lock down opposing offenses, yielding 84 or fewer FG attempts in seven of its last eight contests, this has all the makings of a game that goes right down to the wire. Take Dallas (8*). | |||||||
11-23-22 | Bruins v. Panthers +105 | 2-5 | Win | 105 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Florida over Boston at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the Bruins two nights ago in Tampa but I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the Panthers as they look to snap Boston's long winning streak on Wednesday. The Panthers are in a triple-revenge spot here, having dropped three straight matchups with the Bruins. However, all three of those contests were played in Boston. The last time these two teams met in Sunrise, the Panthers skated to a 4-1 victory. Off an ugly loss in Columbus on Sunday, look for Florida to bounce back here. Take Florida (8*). | |||||||
11-23-22 | Canada v. Belgium OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -130 | 19 h 46 m | Show |
Group Stage Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Canada and Belgium at 2 pm et on Wednesday. While few expect Canada to make much noise in its first World Cup appearance in what seems like an eternity, there are those that feel Belgium may be a little less explosive than we've been accustomed to seeing entering Wednesday's opener. The absence of striker Romelu Lukaku certainly casts a heavy shadow over the Belgian side, but I'm confident we'll still see it thrive offensively against a Canadian side that isn't without its warts defensively. Milan Borjan checks in as one of the weakest goalkeepers in the entire tournament according to my own ratings. Miller and Johnston are wildcards at the back-end as they've performed well at the club level but it's a big jump from MLS to the World Cup stage and they'll have a trial by fire against one of the best squads in the World on Wednesday. This is without a doubt one of the weakest defenses across the board in the entire tournament. The question becomes whether the Canadians can break through offensively to help this total along and I do think they're catching the Belgians at the right time in that regard. Surprisingly, world class keeper Thibaut Courtois enters in less than top form after a string of poor performances, including against Egypt in a friendly warm-up match. Toby Alderweireld has also struggled in recent club play with Royal Antwerp - his responsibility is defending the middle of the field on the back line, an area I'm confident Canada can exploit with table-setter Alphonso Davies and Jonathan David looking to write a new chapter in Canadian soccer history. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
11-23-22 | Japan v. Germany OVER 2.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Japan and Germany at 8 am et on Wednesday. Off an unappealing 0-0 draw against Oman in a World Cup warmup match earlier this month, a lot of bettors might be hesitant to back the 'over' in Germany's tournament opener against a cagey Japan squad on Wednesday. I'm not the least bit concerned about the Germans finding the back of the net in this particular contest. Regardless what we've seen from Japan in matches leading up to this tournament (it has yielded just two goals in its last six matches across all competitions), I have it rated as the weakest defensive squad of the 'big three' in Group E. The good news is, Japan can score and should be an absolute handful for Germany on Wednesday. With Maeda playing for Celtic, Minamino for Monaco and Kamada for Eintracht Frankfurt, all three engines up front are certainly accustomed to being involved in high-scoring environments. It's Japan's back-end that I'm concerned about, especially against a clinical and dare-I-say underrated German squad. Keeper Shuichi Gonda has struggled at the best of times in his home country and most recently allowed a pair of goals in a friendly against Canada. While Germany has no such issues at the back-end with veteran Manuel Neuer between the sticks, I do think it could be vulnerable in the middle of its defense with Sule and Rudiger not exactly in peak form. Watch for Jamal Musiala as he looks to make a real name for himself on the international stage in this tournament. He enters in terrific form off a string of fine performances for Bayern Munich in Bundesliga play. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
11-23-22 | Croatia v. Morocco +0.5 | 0-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on Morocco +0.5 goals over Croatia at 5 am et on Wednesday. Just a straight fade of a veteran Croatian side after it delivered five consecutive outright victories in as many matches heading into this tournament, not to mention the fact that the Checkered Ones reached the World Cup final back in 2018. I believe Morocco can be that upstart squad in Group F as it looks to build off an encouraging, albeit fruitless appearance in the 2018 World Cup. Like Croatia, Morocco enters this tournament playing well also. It hasn't exactly been the year of the upset, even after yesterday's stunner from Saudi Arabia, but I believe Morocco is capable of pulling off the minor upset in this Group F opener on Wednesday. Take Morocco +0.5 goals (8*). | |||||||
11-22-22 | Rangers v. Kings UNDER 6 | 5-3 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Los Angeles at 10:35 pm et on Tuesday. While we don't see many totals set at 5.5 these days, if there were a game where it might be warranted, this is it. The Rangers have seen their last four games stay 'under' the total. Since exploding for eight goals in a victory in Detroit on November 10th, they've managed to score only nine goals in four games since. Defensively, they yielded 12 goals over a three-game stretch from November 3rd to 8th but have allowed only nine goals in five games since. It's a similar story for the Kings. They scored nine goals in a two-game stretch from November 12th to 14th but have managed to find the back of the net only six times in three games since. They haven't been quite as airtight as the Rangers defensively but have limited the opposition to less than 3.0 goals per game on home ice this season which is an accomplishment by today's NHL standards. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 24-10 with New York playing on the road following a game that totalled four goals or less while the 'under' has gone 31-16 with the Kings playing at home following consecutive losses against division opponents. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
11-22-22 | Lakers v. Suns -6.5 | 105-115 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Tuesday. The absence of Chris Paul has provided some solid opportunities to back the Suns at discounted prices and I believe that's the case again on Tuesday as they host the Lakers. Los Angeles is in a prime letdown spot here after shooting the lights out in consecutive games against the Spurs and Pistons (both at home). Last time out, they actually allowed the Spurs to get off a whopping 105 field goal attempts but San Antonio couldn't take advantage, shooting an awful 39% in the loss. The Lakers aren't likely to see anything close to that level of inefficiency from the Suns here. Phoenix is really forcing the issue offensively right now, hoisting up 94+ field goal attempts in five of its last six games and making good on 43 or more field goals in four straight contests. On the flip side, I like the fact that Phoenix got back on track defensively in Sunday's win over the Knicks, holding New York to only 85 FG attempts after its previous two opponents had gotten off 91+. Take Phoenix (8*). | |||||||
11-22-22 | Pistons v. Nuggets UNDER 224.5 | Top | 110-108 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Denver at 9:10 pm et on Tuesday. Detroit enters this contest off consecutive high-scoring 'over' results against the Lakers and Kings after the first game on its current road trip totalled just 187 points. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair than most are expecting as the Pistons continue their road trip in Denver. The Nuggets are of course missing a number of key contributors right now and it has shown. They've managed to get off 82 or fewer field goal attempts in three of their last four games. However, they have figured out how to stay competitive and that's by slowing the opposition, limiting three of their last four opponents to 81 or fewer FG attempts. Detroit quite simply shot the lights out last time out in Sacramento. While it has knocked down 43 and 47 field goals over its last two games, I'm not convinced that type of production is sustainable as it had been limited to fewer than 40 made field goals in each of its previous eight contests. On the flip side, the Pistons have done a nice job of at least limiting their opponents' scoring opportunities, holding four consecutive foes to 85 or fewer FG attempts. You would have to go back four games to find the last time Denver made good on more than 38 field goals, leaving it in a tough spot here should the pace stay down. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
11-22-22 | Nets v. 76ers UNDER 220 | 106-115 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Brooklyn and Philadelphia at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. While both of these teams have shot with incredible efficiency lately, the pace just hasn't been there to dictate a posted total at this level. Brooklyn has gotten off 83 or fewer field goal attempts in five consecutive games and hasn't reached 90 since back on November 4th in Washington (in a game that still totalled only 214 points). Meanwhile, the undermanned 76ers have hoisted up 79 or fewer field goal attempts in three of their last four games and haven't attempted more than 83 field goals in any of their last six contests. While both sides have allowed their opponents' pace to tick up a little higher than they'd like in recent games, that's certainly not their M.O. and not something I expect to see continue. Note that Philadelphia has still limited seven straight opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals. It's a different story for Brooklyn as it has allowed three of its last four foes to knock down 43 or more field goals but it's unlikely the Sixers can take full advantage given their laundry list of current injuries. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
11-22-22 | UMKC v. Indiana State -9.5 | 63-61 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Indiana State minus the points over UMKC at 5 pm et on Tuesday. Missouri-Kansas City pulled off a stunner against Toledo yesterday, winning by double-digits as a 17.5-point underdog. Toledo actually got off 16 more field goal attempts than UMKC in that contest, but couldn't make the most of its opportunities, shooting worse than 40% from the field. Speaking of poor shooting, Indiana State had an uncharacteristically-bad shooting performance against East Carolina yesterday, yet still defeated East Carolina 79-75. The experienced Sycamores have done a tremendous job of frustrating the opposition this season, allowing 20, 25, 27 and 22 made field goals while forcing at least 15 turnovers in fall four contests. Not surprisingly, they check in a perfect 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS with the lone pointspread defeat coming in yesterday's narrow victory over ECU. UMKC is allowing far too many scoring opportunities for my liking, yielding its first six opponents 60, 57, 64, 62, 58 and 66 field goal attempts - that despite two of those games coming against little-known schools in Lincoln (Missouri) and Calvary. Take Indiana State (8*). | |||||||
11-22-22 | Poland v. Mexico | 0-0 | Push | 0 | 13 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Poland pk over Mexico at 11 am et on Tuesday. With glaring weaknesses at the back-end, Mexico will be hard-pressed to make it out of the group stage in this tournament. My own ratings have Mexican keeper Guillermo Ochoa as one of the weakest netminders in the entire tourney. This is a tougher than it seems opening match against a Polish squad that has suffered nothing but disappointment on the world stage but brings plenty of optimism into this particular tournament. With Robert Lewandowski leading the charge up front, a quick strike is never far off (even though he’s yet to score at the World Cup in one previous appearance). In stark contrast to that of Mexico, Poland actually boasts some true defensive stalwarts at the back-end not to mention a quality keeper between the sticks. We’ll back Poland on the goal-line to avoid an outright loss should the match end in a draw but my hope is we won’t need that insurance. Take Poland pk (8*). | |||||||
11-22-22 | Tunisia v. Denmark UNDER 2.5 | 0-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Tunisia and Denmark at 8 am et on Tuesday. Tunisia will do everything in its power to fight to a 0-0 draw in its World Cup opener against Denmark. The Danes might just oblige them as they’re lacking the punch to break through offensively right out of the gates in this tourney, relatively-speaking of course. Note that Tunisia has held seven of its last eight opponents scoreless, with the exception being Brazil. On the flip side, you would have to go back seven contests to find the last time Denmark tallied more than two goals, which might just be asked of it to get this one 'over' the total. Even if one of these teams is able to find the back of the net, as the Danes are likely to do, the equalizer might just be a bridge too far. I’m surprised there are still 2.5’s to be found at the time of posting and we’ll pay the tariff to get that number here. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
11-21-22 | Jazz +3.5 v. Clippers | 114-121 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Monday. We won with Utah the last time these two teams met a couple of weeks ago and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play in Monday's rematch. Utah continues to afford itself plenty of scoring opportunities, hoisting up 91+ field goal attempts in six of its last seven games. Over its last two contests it has made good on 51 and 42 field goals and should give the Clippers all they can handle here. Los Angeles obviously plays at a considerably slower pace, getting off 81 or fewer field goal attempts in five of its last six contests. The Clips made good on 44 field goals in Saturday's rout of the lowly Spurs but that marked its highest total of the season. In stark contrast, Utah has eclipsed that number on five previous occasions. Take Utah (8*). | |||||||
11-21-22 | 49ers v. Cardinals UNDER 43.5 | Top | 38-10 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
NFC West Total of the Month (1H). My selection is on the first half 'under' between San Francisco and Arizona at 8:15 pm et on Monday. The 49ers have generally been slow starters offensively this season, scoring more than 14 points in the first half only once through their first seven games. While we won with the first half 'over' in last week's eventual victory over the Chargers, I won't hesitate to go the other way as they head to Mexico to face the Cardinals on Monday night. Arizona came up with its best defensive effort in weeks in a 27-17 victory over the Rams last week. I actually don't mind Colt McCoy at quarterback given the team's current state as he doesn't tend to stretch out plays and force the offensive line to block for extended periods the same way Kyler Murray does (McCoy also lacks Murray's elusiveness and mobility of course). This is obviously a favorable matchup for the 49ers vaunted defense but I do think the Cards can do enough to extend some drives and eat some clock early on. Meanwhile, the 49ers offense remains somewhat capped in terms of its ceiling with QB Jimmy Garropolo at the helm. My concern for the full game 'under' in this one is that the Cards defense wears down and ends up getting exposed by San Francisco's ground attack and middle-of-the-field passing attack as the game goes on. Early, I do think the Cards can hang, however. Here, we'll note that the first half 'under' is 8-2 with the Niners coming off four or five wins in their last six games over the last three seasons and 5-1 with the Cards following up consecutive 'over' results over the same stretch. Take the first half under (10*). | |||||||
11-21-22 | Bruins +100 v. Lightning | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston over Tampa Bay at 7:05 pm et on Monday. This is undoubtedly a tough test for the red hot Bruins as the Lightning have been playing well also, winning eight of their last 11 games. I like Boston in this spot, however, noting that it took three of four meetings in this series last season and Tampa Bay checks in a woeful 8-13 in its last 21 games following four or more consecutive wins, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 0.6 goals in that situation. Take Boston (8*). | |||||||
11-21-22 | Oilers +135 v. Devils | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Edmonton over New Jersey at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The Devils are the hottest team in the NHL and have been for weeks but I like the Oilers to finally bring New Jersey's long winning streak to a halt on Monday night. Edmonton has proven to be a 'tough out' and then some on the road this season, going 5-2 including victories over top Eastern Conference teams including the Lightning and Panthers. Here, we'll note that the Oilers are an incredible 17-4 in their last 21 games when seeking revenge for a one-goal loss against an opponent, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 1.6 goals on average in that spot. Take Edmonton (8*). | |||||||
11-21-22 | Mercer v. Florida State -5.5 | 72-81 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Florida State minus the points over Mercer at 6:30 pm et on Monday. Florida State is off to an 0-4 start both SU and ATS, experiencing some of the growing pains you might come to expect from a team returning just one starter. With that being said, I like the way this one sets up for the Seminoles as they catch Murray State coming off a home win and cover against Winthrop on Saturday. Mercer has shot 50% or better from the field in all four games to date this season but I'm willing to bet it won't keep that up. While Florida State has yet to find its shooting stroke, it had played fairly tough defense, limiting its first four opponents to 42.2% shooting. Noting that FSU is 22-10 ATS the last 32 times it has played at home off three or more consecutive losses, we'll confidently back the 'Noles here. Take Florida State (8*). | |||||||
11-21-22 | Wales v. United States | 1-1 | Win | 215 | 5 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'draw' between USA and Wales at 2 pm et on Monday. There's not a lot to choose from between these two squads and as such I believe we're being offered solid value to back the 'draw' in the respective World Cup opener for both. These two sides have stumbled lately with the Americans entering winless over their last three contests and Wales having failed to secure a victory in five straight matches. In a group that includes England, the expected front-runner and Iran, the side projected to pull up the rear, earning at least a point is imperative for both of these teams on Monday. The match projects to be low-scoring with the total set at 2.0 and I certainly agree with that notion. I simply feel that the go-ahead marker will be difficult for either side to come by should this one be level, as I expect it to be, in the second half. Take the draw (8*). | |||||||
11-20-22 | Spurs +7 v. Lakers | 92-123 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Los Angeles at 9:40 pm et on Sunday. The Spurs have now dropped four games in a row to open this road trip so they'll be looking to salvage the finale as they stay in Los Angeles for a back-to-back against the Lakers on Sunday night. I like their chances of at least keeping things competitive. Note that San Antonio, whether game-script related or not, continues to do a good job of limiting its opponents' scoring opportunities here on this trip. Over its last three contests, San Antonio has allowed just 79, 83 and 81 field goal attempts. It's been a much different story for the Lakers defensively as they've allowed seven of their last 11 opponents to hoist up 92 or more FG attempts. Four of Los Angeles' last five opponents have made good on more than 40 field goals, opening the door for a bounce-back performance from the Spurs offense tonight. Despite last night's poor showing against a tough Clippers defense, the Spurs have still knocked down 43+ field goals in five of their last seven contests. Take San Antonio (8*). | |||||||
11-20-22 | Chiefs v. Chargers OVER 52 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
AFC West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Kansas City and Los Angeles at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. The first matchup between these teams came back in Week 2 and was not surprisingly pegged as a shootout but fizzled somewhat as the Chiefs pulled out a 27-24 victory that stayed just 'under' the total. While both offenses are missing or dealing with some banged-up key pieces, I believe we're in for a true back-and-forth shootout in Sunday night's rematch. Kansas City's offense keeps rolling along with a 'next man up' philosophy, particularly at the wide receiver position where QB Patrick Mahomes serves as a true talent-elevator. The Chiefs backfield has been a revolving door this season as well but should feast on a Chargers defense that hasn't been able to even slow opposing running games this season and now deals with a cluster of injuries along its defensive line. Los Angeles is expected to have wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams back on the field on Sunday. Regardless whether they're 100% healthy, their presence alone should give the offense a much-needed boost after it stalled in the second half against the 49ers last week. QB Justin Herbert has fared exceptionally well against this Chiefs defense in recent years and should be in for another boxscore-stuffing performance on Sunday night. Given Kansas City's tendency to allow opposing running backs to get loose in the short passing game, Chargers RB Austin Ekeler sets up well to go off in this matchup as well. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 8-1 in the Chargers last nine games following a road loss, resulting in an average total of 55.3 points. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
11-20-22 | Grizzlies +7.5 v. Nets | 115-127 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Brooklyn at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. While the Grizzlies are dealing with a number of key absences for this game I believe we're seeing an overreaction from the betting marketplace as a result. Brooklyn has had a tough enough time just getting shots off, let alone knocking them down, hoisting up 84 or fewer field goal attempts in nine of its last 11 contests. You would have to go back five games to find the last time the Nets made good on more than 40 field goals. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies continue to find their scoring opportunities, regardless who is in the lineup, getting off 91+ field goal attempts in seven of their last eight contests. They should continue to do so here, noting that Brooklyn has yielded 91+ FG attempts to three consecutive opponents heading in. Take Memphis (8*). | |||||||
11-20-22 | Hornets v. Wizards OVER 219.5 | 102-106 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Charlotte and Washington at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. I'm expecting plenty of offensive fireworks in this Eastern Conference matchup on Sunday evening. Charlotte continues to roll offensively, despite having little to show for it in the win column. It has made good on 42 or more field goals in five consecutive games and now faces a forgiving Wizards defense that has allowed six of its last eight opponents to get off 90+ field goal attempts. On the flip side, Washington has knocked down 41+ field goals in six of its last seven games and Charlotte has certainly proven to be vulnerable defensively with five of its last seven foes making good on 40+ field goals. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
11-20-22 | Toronto v. Winnipeg UNDER 49 | Top | 24-23 | Win | 100 | 56 h 52 m | Show |
Playoff Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Winnipeg at 6 pm et on Sunday. To me, this has been a rather uneventful CFL season with things going mostly as planned with the Winnipeg Blue Bombers entering the Grey Cup favored to win once again. While I do think Winnipeg ultimately wins this game, I'm not interested in laying the points here. Instead, I'll call for the Blue Bombers defense to come up big again while both offenses play it conservatively enough to help keep this one 'under' what I consider to be an inflated total. In an odd quirk, this will be the first time either side faces a different opponent in the last four games. By that I mean, the Argos have faced Montreal in each of their last three contests while the Bombers are coming off three consecutive games against the Lions. These two teams faced each other just once during the regular season and the result was a 23-22 Winnipeg victory in Toronto. That game actually eclipsed the closing total by a half-point, so we're dealing with a considerably higher posted total here. I don't believe it's warranted. While Argos QB McLeod Bethel-Thompson avoided costly turnovers against Montreal last week, he has been turnover-prone over the course of the season and I don't believe Toronto wants to put too much on his plate here, especially with veteran RB and former Bomber Andrew Harris in the backfield. The same goes for the Bombers, at least to a certain extent, as they're always comfortable doing just enough offensively while putting most of the load on their elite defense, which has been the class of the CFL this season. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 6-3 the last nine times the Argos have sought revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent while the 'under' is 18-11 in Winnipeg's last 29 games when installed as a favorite. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
11-20-22 | Cowboys v. Vikings UNDER 48.5 | Top | 40-3 | Win | 100 | 50 h 27 m | Show |
NFC Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Minnesota at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. Most have this game projected as a shootout between two of the NFC's elite teams in the friendly confines of U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis. I'm not so easily convinced. Both teams are coming off poor defensive performances last week with the Cowboys coming away with an overtime loss against the down-trodden Packers and the Vikings coming from behind to defeat the Super Bowl-contending Bills, also in overtime. While Minnesota's defense continues to give up a ton of yardage to opposing offenses, it has done a reasonable job of limiting points, and more specifically touchdowns. Note that last week marked the first time all season the Vikings had yielded more than 26 points in a game. They haven't posted consecutive 'over' results since a three-game 'over' streak from Weeks 3 through 5. The Cowboys have one of the better defenses in the league but haven't shown it in the last couple of games against the Bears and Packers. That's been somewhat game-script dependent as they've been playing from ahead most of the way (something they don't necessarily project to do here in this near pk'em priced contest). Note that Dallas enters this game leading the NFL in sacks per game and only two teams have held the opposition to fewer yards per pass play. While you can run on these Cowboys, it seems that opponents are rarely able to resist the urge to test their aggressive pass defenders, often leading to negative results. Here, we'll note that the Cowboys have checked in as a road favorite of a field goal or less only twice over the last three seasons and both of those games stayed 'under' the total. The 'under' is also 9-4 in the Vikings last 13 games after scoring 30 or more points in their previous contest and 25-12 the last 37 times they've played at home after winning six or seven of their last eight games, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 42.0 points. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
11-20-22 | Cowboys -1 v. Vikings | 40-3 | Win | 100 | 31 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Minnesota at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I really like the way this game sets up for Dallas as it looks to bounce back from a blown opportunity in an overtime loss in Green Bay last week. The Cowboys match up well with the Vikings. We know that as they managed to win right here at U.S. Bank Stadium with Cooper Rush starting his first game on Halloween Night last year. They came through as a 4.5-point underdog in that game. Here, they're being favored (at the time of writing) and it's the right move in my opinion. Minnesota is fresh off a stunning come-from-behind win in Buffalo last Sunday. Keep in mind, that game certainly could have gone either way. The Vikings were the benefactors of a number of breaks or dare I say 'lucky' plays late in that contest. Sometimes you have to be good to be lucky, I know. With that said, the Vikes have only checked in as an underdog twice this season. In the other instance, against another NFC East foe in Philadelphia, they lost by 17 points. While things didn't ultimately go their way last Sunday, the Cowboys are still 2-1 SU and ATS since getting QB Dak Prescott back on the field. Now sitting at 9-1 on the season, the Vikes are going to get everyone's best shot from here on out, and I simply feel Dallas is the superior team in this matchup. Take Dallas (8*). | |||||||
11-20-22 | Lions +3 v. Giants | Top | 31-18 | Win | 100 | 28 h 44 m | Show |
NFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Detroit plus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Lions suddenly have a good thing going after delivering a home win over the Packers and a come-from-behind road victory over the Bears in consecutive weeks. Now they head to the Meadowlands to face a Giants team that I still consider a 'paper tiger' even as they sit at an impressive 7-2 nine games into the campaign. Last week was a good spot to back the Giants. They ultimately covered by the narrowest of margins but really had no business winning that game as their offense did virtually nothing while the underdog Texans marched into the red zone time and time again but simply couldn't finish drives with touchdowns. Here, I'm not sure New York will be so fortunate. The G-Men have been gashed for 5.4 yards per rush this season with no easy fix in sight. There's certainly a path for the Lions to effectively shorten this game with an offense that's more than capable of staying on the field for extended stretches. Defensively, the Lions have their warts but the Giants offensive ceiling is always capped thanks to its one-dimensional nature. RB Saquon Barkley will get his but at some point in this game, I expect QB Daniel Jones to be called upon to be a difference-maker. I'm not convinced he comes through, noting that New York has totalled fewer than 20 pass completions in four straight games and has topped out at a pitiful 213 passing yards in a game this season. Take Detroit (10*). | |||||||
11-20-22 | Commanders v. Texans OVER 41 | 23-10 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. We got burned with the 'over' in the Texans most recent game as they were stymied time and time again in the red zone, falling by a 24-16 score on the road against the Giants. I do think we'll see them clean things up back home on Sunday as they catch the Commanders playing on a short week off a massive upset win in Philadelphia on Monday night. On the flip side, we know the Commanders want to run the football, which often works against playing 'overs' in today's NFL. With that being said, the Texans have shown no ability to stop the run this season, yielding 5.2 yards per rush. Standout rookie cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. has been a bright spot for the Texans otherwise pedestrian defense this season but now he's sidelined due to injury. His absence should have the Commanders looking to take their shots downfield with an underrated group of wide receivers led by Terry McLaurin. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
11-20-22 | Ecuador v. Qatar | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 49 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'draw' between Qatar and Ecuador at 11 am et on Sunday. I actually feel there's a good chance we'll have to wait another day until the first goal of World Cup 2022 is recorded. With that being said, rather than play the 'under' in a game where the value has been all but lost in that regard, I'll go for the more significant payout with the 'draw' in this tournament opener featuring host Qatar and Ecuador. The Maroon went undefeated across their four friendly warm-up matches but will face a tough test against a seasoned Ecuadorian squad here. Ecuador has seemed bent on making its matches as uneventful as possible and that has yielded some success. Here, I believe both sides would be comfortable coming away with a point before the Group Stage toughens up with dates against Senegal and the Netherlands. In fact, not gaining a point in this match would likely bring hopes of advancing in the tournament to an immediate halt for either side. I do think both squads offer just enough scoring punch to ultimately find the equalizer should they fall behind in this one. While the 'draw' may seem like the obvious choice here, that doesn't mean it's the wrong one. Take the draw (8*). | |||||||
11-19-22 | Spurs +8 v. Clippers | 97-119 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Saturday. The Spurs have lost three straight games to open this road trip but I look for them to give the Clippers all they can handle on Saturday night in Los Angeles. San Antonio has actually done a good job of limiting its opponents scoring opportunities (relatively speaking of course) on the road this season. Only once have the Spurs allowed an opponent to get off more than 88 field goal attempts away from home and that came in a win in Indiana back on October 21st. Meanwhile, San Antonio has been making the most of its own scoring opportunities lately, making good on 43+ field goals in five of its last six contests. The Clippers have had a tough enough time just getting shots off, let alone knocking them down. They've attempted 81 or fewer field goals in five of their last six games overall, making good on 34 or fewer field goals in three of their last four contests. Only twice in their last 11 games have they knocked down more than 41 field goals which makes covering a lofty pointspread such as this one difficult on most nights. Take San Antonio (8*). | |||||||
11-19-22 | Jazz v. Blazers OVER 222.5 | Top | 118-113 | Win | 100 | 16 h 3 m | Show |
Northwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Utah and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Saturday. The Jazz were involved in a wild, high-scoring affair against the Suns last night, with that 'over' result snapping a brief two-game 'under' streak. I look for another relatively high-scoring contest on Saturday as the top two teams in the Northwest Division (currently) match up in Portland. While Utah's offense has been terrific, I'm still concerned about its lack of defense. Note that the Jazz have now allowed four of their last five opponents to knock down 44 or more field goals. Three of their last five opponents have gotten off 93 or more field goal attempts. The opportunities are there and I expect the Blazers to take advantage as they look to bounce back from a near-miss against the Nets two nights ago. While Portland has been able to limit its opponents scoring opportunities to a certain extent by holding four consecutive foes to 85 or fewer FG attempts, that hasn't stopped the opposition from making good on 40+ attempts in three consecutive games. Noting that this was a favorable matchup for Utah all of last season (the Jazz scored 129, 120, 123 and 111 points in four meetings) and arguably plays faster and with more efficiency this season, the Blazers should have their hands full defensively in this one. That being said, Portland is back at virtually full strength and will undoubtedly have its legs under it as it wraps up a three-game homestand off a day's rest. I'm anticipating a back-and-forth, high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
11-19-22 | USC v. UCLA UNDER 76.5 | 48-45 | Loss | -110 | 55 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between USC and UCLA at 8 pm et on Saturday. USC has now seen each of its last four games go 'over' the total, even though last week's game against Colorado really had no business getting there (yes, I'm still a little sour after backing the 'under' in that game). In that game against the Buffaloes, the Trojans defense came up big, holding Colorado out of the end zone until there were fewer than six minutes remaining in the third quarter. Offensively, USC didn't score a touchdown until the fifth minute of the second quarter and it will obviously be facing a tougher challenge against a UCLA defense that has given up its share of points, but has come up big at times as well. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 19-8 the last 27 times USC has gone on the road after scoring 37+ points in consecutive games, resulting in an average total of just 51.9 points. UCLA, meanwhile, checks in off a stunning 34-28 home loss against Arizona and that's notable as the 'under' is 27-9 in the Bruins last 36 games when coming off a loss by a touchdown or less in conference play. That situation has produced an average total of only 50.0 points. Last year we saw a closing total of 65.5 in this matchup. The fact that game totaled a whopping 95 points and USC is on an 'over' streak has this total set higher than it should be in my opinion. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
11-19-22 | Islanders +1.5 v. Stars | 2-5 | Loss | -190 | 12 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York +1.5 goals over Dallas at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. With the Islanders having scored exactly four goals in five of their last six games and Dallas allowing four goals or more in four of its last five contests, a potential equalizer should never be too far away for New York on Saturday. Here, we'll note that the Stars average just 1.9 goals per game when playing at home after scoring three or more goals in four consecutive games, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 0.9 goals in that situation. Meanwhile, the Isles average 3.5 goals per game while outscoring opponents by 1.3 goals on average when coming off a one-goal loss over the last three seasons, which is also the situation here. Take New York +1.5 goals (8*). | |||||||
11-19-22 | Wolves v. 76ers OVER 222.5 | 112-109 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Philadelphia at 7:40 pm et on Saturday. Minnesota's current road trip got off to a sluggish start with a 114-103 loss in Memphis but since then we've seen the T'Wolves put up 129 and 126 points in wins over the Cavs and Magic. They've actually been playing at a considerably slower pace than expected lately but I look for that pace to tick up for this one. Note that Philadelphia has been a little more forgiving defensively than usual in recent contests, yielding 88, 89, 94 and 90 field goal attempts to its last four opponents. That's worth noting as they had limited nine of their first 11 opponents to 86 or fewer FG attempts this season. In that vein, the T'Wolves have allowed their last four opponents to knock down 47, 44, 40 and 42 field goals. Each of their last five opponents have hoisted up 88 or more field goal attempts. Despite playing on the second of back-to-back nights, the 76ers would appear poised to take advantage of their scoring opportunities in this matchup, noting they scored 120 and 133 points in two meetings with Minnesota last season and enter this contest having knocked down 40 or more field goals in three consecutive games - their longest such streak of the season to date. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
11-19-22 | Providence v. Miami-FL UNDER 141.5 | 64-74 | Win | 100 | 6 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Providence and Miami at 4 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams have been made to look very good offensively over the last couple of games but that's had everything to do with the level of competition they've faced. Here, we'll note that neither team has allowed an opponent to get off 60+ field goal attempts through three games this season. We've also seen some good discipline out of both teams defensively, with Providence yielding just 10 free throw attempts per game and Miami checking in allowing 13. In what projects as a tightly-contested affair with Miami favored by just a couple of points, I'll back the 'under' in Uncasville on Saturday afternoon. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
11-19-22 | Georgia v. Kentucky +22.5 | Top | 16-6 | Win | 100 | 27 h 47 m | Show |
SEC Game of the Month. My selection is on Kentucky plus the points over Georgia at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. While things have gone a little sideways for Kentucky following a perfect 4-0 start to the campaign, I'm still a believer in this Wildcats squad and feel they can give undefeated Georgia a run on Saturday afternoon in Lexington. While the Bulldogs remain undefeated on the season at 10-0 and come off consecutive ATS victories as well, it's not as if it's been a completely smooth ride. Georgia has actually turned the football over seven times while forcing only two turnovers over its last three games. Remember, there was a scare on the road against an average Missouri team (the Wildcats beat the Tigers on the road two weeks ago) - a game Georgia won by only four points. The Wildcats suffered an inevitable letdown at home against Vanderbilt last week after it gained Bowl eligibility with a sixth victory the game previous. I'm confident it can pick itself back up here as the Bulldogs are obviously an easy opponent to get up for. Note that Kentucky has yet to allow more than 24 points in a game this season and it can run the football (although not as consistently as you'd like to see given its backfield talent). That's to say there's a path for the Wildcats to effectively shorten this game and keep it competitive for four quarters. Note that you would have to go back four games here in Lexington - all the way to 2014 - to find the last time Georgia defeated Kentucky by more than 17 points on this field. The Wildcats defense has matched up fairly well against the Bulldogs in recent years, allowing 'only' 30, 14 and 21 points in the last three meetings in this series. Take Kentucky (10*). | |||||||
11-19-22 | Miami-FL +19.5 v. Clemson | Top | 10-40 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 21 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Clemson at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I really like the way this one sets up for the underdog Hurricanes as they look to pick up that all-important sixth win of the season. Of course, it will be an uphill battle trying to win outright as a near-three touchdown underdog but we're not concerned about the outright victory here, only that the Canes can stay competitive for four quarters and I'm confident that they can. Everything mighty Clemson was working toward was essentially trashed in a blowout loss against Notre Dame in South Bend two weeks ago. Credit the Tigers for bouncing back with a 31-16 home win over Louisville last week but I can't help but feel an empty feeling still remains for these Clemson players. Miami picked up a critical road win at Virginia three games back before suffering an inevitable letdown back at home against Florida State. Yes, the Canes got crushed by the Seminoles but a loss is a loss and they moved on just fine, notching a 35-14 win at Georgia Tech last Saturday. While the Canes no longer have the services of QB Tyler Van Dyke as he's been lost to a shoulder injury, I actually think his replacement Jacurri Brown is a good fit in this offense. He made the big plays when needed and showed that he could do some things with his legs as well, gaining 87 rushing yards on 19 attempts. Quietly, Canes standout WR Xavier Restrepo returned from injury a few games back and has been slowly worked back into the offense. He's capable of making a splash this week in my opinion. With that said, I believe the path to Miami success here against the Tigers involves leaning on its terrific ground attack, not to mention is still-underrated defense. It's not as if Clemson has been blowing the doors off of its opponents this season. The Tigers have topped out at 34 points over their last six games. We've also seen teams move the football on this Clemson defense, stunningly on the ground as the Tigers have been ripped for 206, 124, 263 and 150 rushing yards over their last four contests. The last time these two teams met was in 2020 when Clemson rolled to a 42-17 home victory. The pointspread would seem to indicate Miami hasn't closed the gap at all - in fact, quite the opposite - since that meeting but I believe it has and will show it on the field on Saturday. Take Miami (10*). | |||||||
11-19-22 | Virginia Tech v. Liberty UNDER 47 | Top | 23-22 | Win | 100 | 25 h 22 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Virginia Tech and Liberty at 12 noon et on Saturday. I really like the way this one sets up as a low-scoring affair between the down-trodden Hokies and upstart Flames on Saturday afternoon. Virginia Tech won two of its first three games this season but has gone winless in seven games since. While you might not know it by last week's 24-7 loss to Duke, I don't think the Hokies have quit on the season. This is still a talented defensive team at the very least and one that can relish the role of spoiler in the final two games of the regular season. Note that for as bad as things have gone for the Hokies and for as little the offense has been able to produce and stay on the field, they've actually held their last four opponents to 20, 22, 28 and 24 points. There was a stretch in late-September and early-October where their defense got worn down but we have seen that unit regroup and play the way it can lately. Now it faces a Liberty offense that has kept rolling along despite missing a number of key contributors due to injuries, including its top two quarterbacks on the depth chart and standout RB Dae Dae Hunter. The 'next man up' philosophy on that side of the football certainly worked last week as the Flames scored 33 points, albeit in a losing effort against UConn. They will face a tougher defensive challenge here, and I would anticipate perhaps a more conservative, ball control type of offensive gameplan given QB Jonathan Bennett's turnover-prone nature so far. The Liberty defense suffered a letdown against the Huskies last week but that was to be expected after holding Arkansas to 19 points in a stunning upset win the week previous. Note that Liberty has still held three of its last four opponents to 20 points or less and should be able to contain a Hokies offense that scored a touchdown less than two minutes in against Duke last week but then never hit the scoresheet again. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
11-19-22 | Northwestern v. Purdue OVER 44 | 9-17 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Northwestern and Purdue at 12 noon et on Saturday. I like the way this one sets up as a higher-scoring affair than most are expecting. Northwestern's season has been circling the drain for weeks now and last week's 31-3 loss at Minnesota might have represented rock-bottom. I do expect the Wildcats to put up somewhat of a fight this week as they look to bounce back after scoring just 10 points combined in their last two games. Purdue has a knack for letting opponents hang around here in West Lafayette and Northwestern has won five consecutive trips here going all the way back to 2009. With that being said, this is a smash spot for the Boilermakers offense so rather than grab the points with the visitors, we'll go with the 'over' as this total continues to move in the wrong direction in my opinion. An injury to RB King Doerue seemingly opened the door for what might be a good one in Devin Mockobee. He has ran for 100+ yards in four of the last six games, reaching the end zone in five of the last six contests. Northwestern's defense has been cooked for 4.8 yards per rush this season. Of course, the Wildcats pass defense hasn't been much better, especially since losing CB Coco Azema to a season-ending injury in October. While Northwestern isn't likely to throw all over Purdue - not with its top two quarterbacks both questionable due to injuries suffered last week - I do think it can make considerable gains on the ground, where Purdue has sagged as the season has gone on, yielding 122, 179, 184 and 102 rushing yards over the last four games. As I mentioned, the Boilers give up their share of points here at home, where they've allowed 35, 0, 26, 37 and 24 points in five contests this season. The outlier came in a Week 2 matchup with FCS squad Indiana State. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
11-18-22 | San Diego State v. New Mexico +14.5 | Top | 34-10 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 46 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on New Mexico plus the points over San Diego State at 9:45 pm et on Friday. I really like the way this one sets up for underdog New Mexico as it looks to play spoiler against San Diego State on Friday. The Aztecs have saved their season with wins over UNLV and San Jose State over the last two weeks, giving them Bowl eligibility. I can't help but feel they're in for a letdown against a seemingly inferior squad here. New Mexico is a woeful 2-8 on the season and wasn't competitive in last Saturday's 31-3 loss to Air Force. The Lobos actually did well defensively to hold the Falcons to just 14 first half points but coming back on a team that can hog the time of possession like Air Force is extremely tough. San Diego State exploded for a 43-27 come-from-behind win over San Jose State last week. It seemed as if the Spartans thought it was going to be a cakewalk after two early touchdowns but the Aztecs took the ensuing kickoff (following the second TD) to the house to turn the tide. QB Jalen Mayden has been San Diego State's offense since taking over but this will be the Aztecs first road test since falling by a 32-28 score at Fresno State on October 29th. In a game that features an exceptionally low posted total, I believe grabbing the generous helping of points with the home underdog will be worth our while. Take New Mexico (10*). | |||||||
11-18-22 | Celtics v. Pelicans OVER 226.5 | Top | 117-109 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and New Orleans at 8:40 pm et on Friday. We saw two relatively low-scoring affairs between these two teams last season but I expect a different story to unfold on Friday in New Orleans. Boston enters this game locked-in offensively, knocking down 46+ field goals in four of its last five games. Concerning, however, is the fact that the Celtics have allowed their last two opponents to get off a whopping 98 and 101 field goal attempts. In fact, seven of the C's last 10 opponents have hoisted up 90+ FG attempts. Not only that but seven of their last nine foes have knocked down more than 40 field goals. New Orleans certainly appears set to take advantage as it has made good on 42+ field goals in six of its last seven games and more than 40 in nine of its last 10 contests. However, like the Celtics, the Pelicans have proven vulnerable at times defensively, yielding 43+ made field goals in five of their last seven games. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
11-18-22 | Thunder v. Grizzlies OVER 232.5 | 110-121 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Oklahoma City and Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Friday. I'm not sure any team has impressed me more offensively than the Thunder this season. After cashing with the 'over' in their most recent game - a 121-120 win in Washington two nights ago - I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. The Thunder have knocked down 44 or more field goals in five straight games heading into this contest. While they only managed to get off 81 field goal attempts in that win over the Wizards, they've still hoisted up 93+ field goal attempts in four of their last six contests. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies have sputtered a bit offensively of late but should be able to get on track here, noting that Oklahoma City has been very forgiving defensively, allowing four of its last five opponents to make good on 44+ field goals. Five of the Thunder's last seven opponents have gotten off 90+ FG attempts while the Grizzlies have eclipsed that number of attempts in six of their last seven contests so the opportunities should be there for the home side. Memphis has been all over the place defensively but I will note that three of its last six opponents have attempted more than 90 field goals - that after only three of its first nine foes got into the 90+ range. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
11-18-22 | Baylor v. Virginia UNDER 133.5 | Top | 79-86 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
Tournament Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Baylor and Virginia at 7 pm et on Friday. We've seen the 'over' go a combined 5-0 in these two teams' first five games but I expect a different story to unfold as they match up in Las Vegas on Friday. While Baylor's offense has garnered most of the attention, it has quietly been in midseason form defensively as well. The Bears check in having allowed just 49, 48 and 56 field goal attempts through three games. Yes, they've faced inferior competition but it's not as if today's opponent, Virginia, will be looking to really push the pace offensively. The Cavaliers have scored 73 and 89 points in winning their first two games, also against inferior competition, but have hoisted up just 47 and 54 field goal attempts. They quite simply shot the lights out against Monmouth last time out, leading to their highest-scoring performance of the young season. Like Baylor, Virginia has been locked-in defensively, holding its first two opponents to only 53 and 41 FG attempts. Both teams have been lighting it up from three-point range while also getting to the free throw line at an incredible rate. That changes as they both step up in class in this one. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
11-17-22 | Titans +3.5 v. Packers | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tennessee first half plus the points over Green Bay at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. While all bets are off should the Packers fall behind early and enter true 'desperation mode' in the second half of this game, I believe the Titans are worthy of our support catching points in the game's first 30 minutes on Thursday. Note that Tennessee is 6-1 ATS against the first half line over its last seven games with the lone setback coming at home against Denver last Sunday. Even two weeks ago, without QB Ryan Tannehill in a primetime game in Kansas City we saw the Titans carry a 14-9 lead into halftime. In fact, they've led at halftime in each of their last four road games, with the lone exception this season being a disastrous Week 1 affair in Buffalo. Nothing has come easy for the Packers this season and I'm not anticipating anything different on Thursday. Green Bay did cash for first half bettors last Sunday against Dallas, but only went into the break tied (it was a rare home underdog in that contest). You would have to go back four games overall, not to mention four games here at home, to find the last time the Packers led a game at halftime. There's certainly a path for the Titans to control proceedings early with RB Derrick Henry in a monster bounce-back spot after getting held in check by the Broncos last Sunday. Green Bay checks in allowing north of 5.0 yards per rush this season and is severely banged-up on the defensive side of the football right now. Take Tennessee first half (8*). | |||||||
11-17-22 | SMU v. Tulane -3 | 24-59 | Win | 100 | 30 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tulane minus the points over SMU at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. Year in, year out, bettors flock to the SMU Mustangs thanks to their high-flying offense. Fresh off three consecutive SU wins and four in a row ATS that's not likely to change as the Mustangs stay on the road for a second game in six days, facing upstart Tulane on Thursday. The Green Wave are 8-2 on the campaign but enter this game off a 38-31 loss as a short favorite at home against Central Florida on Saturday. There was really no shame in that defeat as the Knights are a terrific team, arguably better than the SMU squad they'll face on Thursday. While the difference between the two offenses in this game is negligible in my opinion, I believe Tulane is the far better defensive team. After giving up 38 points in Saturday's loss the Green Wave will obviously be in a less-than-forgiving mood on Thursday, hungry to end a seven-game losing streak in this series. I'll lay the short number with the home side. Take Tulane (8*). | |||||||
11-17-22 | Devils +130 v. Maple Leafs | 3-2 | Win | 130 | 11 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Jersey over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. It always seems to be one step forward, two steps back when it comes to the Maple Leafs and off consecutive victories including a lopsided win in Pittsburgh two nights ago, I look for them to get tripped up against the red hot Devils on Thursday. New Jersey isn't getting the credit or recognition it deserves. The Devils have reeled off 10 consecutive victories - that's no fluke. They haven't allowed more than three goals on a single occasion over that stretch. Contrast that with the Leafs, who have been lit up for 4+ goals in five of their last 10 contests. Outscoring the opposition by 1.9 goals on average on the road this season, we'll ride with the Devils on Thursday. Take New Jersey (8*). | |||||||
11-16-22 | Kings v. Oilers OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -125 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Edmonton at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. These aren't the same Kings we've become accustomed to seeing in recent years. Previous Los Angeles' clubs wouldn't have been able to sniff out a comeback in a game like Monday's in Calgary. In that contest, the Kings fell behind 5-2 and 6-3 but ultimately rallied for a narrow 6-5 defeat, coming one near-miss from tying the game in the closing minute. Los Angeles has now scored nine goals over its last two contests and checks in averaging 3.7 goals per game (an average total of 7.8 goals) on the road this season. The Oilers are back home following a three-game road trip that saw them win two games. They're averaging 3.8 goals per game on home ice this season but also allowing an average of 3.8. Noting that the 'over' is 15-5 the last 20 times the Oilers have come off a win by 2+ goals, as is the case here, with that situation averaging a total of 7.4 goals, we'll confidently back the 'over' in Oil Country on Thursday. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
11-16-22 | Rockets v. Mavs UNDER 221.5 | Top | 101-92 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
Southwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Mavs pulled out a 103-101 win over the Clippers last night despite the visitors shooting a blistering 54% from the field. I'm not going to knock the Dallas defense for that performance as Los Angeles quite simply shot the lights out. Incredibly, the Mavs actually held the Clips to just 64 field goal attempts. Dallas has now held four of its last five opponents to 80 or fewer field goal attempts and should have little trouble locking down one of the worst offenses in the league in the Rockets on Wednesday. Note that the Mavs themselves have topped out at just 86 FG attempts over their last eight contests. They've been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in five of their last six games. Stunningly bad on offense, Houston has been limited to 40 or fewer made field goals in 11 of its last 12 contests. On a more positive note, the Rockets have at least been able to keep their opponents pace in check to a certain extent, holding seven of their last eight opponents to 87 or fewer FG attempts. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
11-16-22 | Thunder v. Wizards OVER 228.5 | 121-120 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Oklahoma City and Washington at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. I'm anticipating a track meet between the Thunder and Wizards on Wednesday. Oklahoma City is running as free-flowing of an offense as you'll find in the NBA right now, hoisting up 102, 111, 93, 88 and 98 field goal attempts over its last five games. Better still, the Thunder have knocked down 41, 50, 52, 55 and 47 field goals over that stretch. There's little reason to expect Washington to offer much resistance as five of its last six opponents have gotten off 90+ FG attempts. While the Wizards haven't been pushing the pace to the same level as the Thunder, they can certainly get out and run and take advantage of the opportunities they're afforded. In that regard, they should have plenty here as the Thunder have allowed four of their last five opponents to get off 93+ FG attempts with three of their last four opponents knocking down 46+ field goals. The Wiz have made good on 41+ field goals in four of their last five contests. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
11-16-22 | Sabres v. Senators OVER 6.5 | 1-4 | Loss | -125 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Buffalo and Ottawa at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Sabres were involved in another wild, high-scoring affair last night as they fell by a 5-4 score against the Canucks on home ice. Losers of six games in a row, they'll be looking to get untracked in Ottawa on Wednesday and the Senators should prove to be a forgiving foe as they've allowed 4+ goals in seven of their last nine games overall. The Sens scored only two goals in Monday's loss to the Islanders but I'm not overly concerned about their offense and I expect the Sabres will be the cure for what ails them on Wednesday, noting that Buffalo has allowed 5, 5, 4, 7, 3 and 5 goals over its last six contests and gives up 3.5 goals per game on the road this season. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
11-15-22 | Spurs +7.5 v. Blazers | 110-117 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Spurs got drilled by the Warriors in San Francisco last night but I expect them to put up more of a fight against the Blazers in Portland on Tuesday. San Antonio actually got off a whopping 100 field goal attempts in that setback. It simply couldn't make the most of its opportunities. At the same time, it did limit the Warriors to 'only' 88 field goal attempts but the Warriors shot the lights out, as they're known to do on a regular basis. Here, I don't expect San Antonio to suffer the same fate at the hands of the Blazers, who have made good on 38 or fewer field goals in four of their last five contests. Portland is having a tough enough time just getting shots off let alone knocking them down, hoisting up 80 or fewer FG attempts in four of its last five games. Note that this matchup favored the Spurs last season with San Antonio scoring 114, 133, 130 and 113 points while going a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS in four meetings. Take San Antonio (8*). | |||||||
11-15-22 | Knicks v. Jazz OVER 230.5 | 118-111 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Utah at 9:10 pm et on Tuesday. This game has 'track meet' written all over it as the Knicks head to Salt Lake City to face the Jazz on Tuesday night, with both teams coming off losses. New York has gotten off a whopping 90+ field goal attempts in 10 of its 13 games this season while Utah has done the same in 10 of its last 14 contests. The problem is neither team has offered much resistance to the opposition defensively. New York has been lit up for more than 40 made field goals in seven of its last 10 contests. Each of Utah's last seven opponents have knocked down 40+ field goals. We saw both teams shoot poorly in last season's two meetings in this series and as a result both games stayed 'under' the total. I expect a much different story to unfold here. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
11-15-22 | Clippers v. Mavs UNDER 212 | Top | 101-103 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Mavericks are mired in an incredible ATS slump right now having gone eight games without covering the spread. While I do look for them to win this game on Tuesday night, we're dealing with another inflated pointspread so I prefer to play the 'under' in this spot, which is set up well with the Clippers coming off a relatively high-scoring 'over' result last night and Dallas checking in off consecutive 'overs'. Note that these two teams met four times last season with Dallas topping out at 112 points in those contests with two of them being settled in the 90's. The Mavs continue to do a tremendous job of limiting their opponents' scoring opportunities, having held six of their last seven opponents to 84 or fewer field goal attempts with six of those foes knocking down fewer than 40 of those attempts. From an offensive standpoint, Dallas has hoisted up 86 of fewer FG attempts in seven straight games. The Clippers certainly won't shy away from a low-event game in a back-to-back spot. Note that they've gotten off 87 or fewer FG attempts in all 14 games this season. They've also limited seven straight opponents to 88 or fewer FG attempts and four of their last five to 40 or fewer made field goals. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
11-15-22 | Flyers v. Blue Jackets +1.5 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Columbus +1.5 goals over Philadelphia at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Blue Jackets easily skated past the Flyers by a 5-2 score here at Nationwide Arena last week. They followed that up by collecting a point in an overtime loss against the Islanders on Long Island on Saturday. Here, we have a classic case of the wrong team being favored in my opinion and we'll take advantage by cherry-picking the insurance goal with the home side. The Flyers are reeling after a surprisingly solid start to the campaign. They've lost three games in a row, allowing a whopping 14 goals in the process while scoring only four. Keep in mind, Philadelphia opened the campaign scoring 5, 3, 3, 3, 3, 0, 4 and 3 goals in its first five games this season. Since then, the Flyers have scored 0, 2, 2, 5, 2, 1 and 1 goal in their last seven contests. Picked by most to finish at or near the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings at the outset of the season, the Flyers seem to gradually be living up to those expectations. The Blue Jackets endured a brutal stretch in late October and early November but as I mentioned have played much better over the last couple of games and I'm confident they can give the Flyers all they can handle again on Tuesday. Take Columbus +1.5 goals (8*). | |||||||
11-15-22 | Michigan State v. Kentucky UNDER 141.5 | 86-77 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Michigan State and Kentucky at 7 pm et on Tuesday. There's no question which way I'm going with the total in this early season showdown between the Spartans and Wildcats. The 'under' has combined to go 3-1 in these two teams' first four games this season and there's little reason to anticipate a reversal of that trend here. Kentucky has been 'filling it up' through two games, knocking down 34 and 28 field goals in blowout wins over Howard and Duquesne - both at Rupp Arena no less. It isn't likely to enjoy the same type of success here, however, noting that Michigan State just got done holding Gonzaga to only 23 made field goals in a tough 64-63 loss on Friday. Speaking of that game, the Spartans could only muster 21 made field goals against the Zags and now deal with a Kentucky defense that limited its first two opponents to just 43-of-133 shooting, despite the lopsided nature of those two aforementioned contests. Noting that the 'under' is a long-term 110-79 with Michigan State playing on a neutral court and 13-2 the last 15 times Kentucky has come off a double-digit home victory, as is the case here, we'll confidently back the 'under' on Tuesday. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
11-15-22 | Ohio v. Ball State +4 | 32-18 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Ball State plus the points over Ohio at 7 pm et on Tuesday. Ohio is rolling right now, winning five consecutive games SU and six in a row ATS. The Bobcats offense has been outstanding, but I'm willing to back the better defense in a home underdog role, not to mention the fact that Ball State can become Bowl eligible with a victory (the Cardinals will wrap up the regular season with a road game against Miami-Ohio). Ball State not surprisingly suffered a letdown last week at Toledo after winning outright in an underdog role at Kent State the week previous. As I mentioned, the Cardinals can play some defense, allowing 4.2 yards per rush and 6.3 yards per pass attempt this season. In stark contrast, Ohio has yielded 4.4 yards per rush (with that number rising to 5.0 on the road) and 8.4 yards per pass play. There's a path for the Cardinals to effectively shorten this game and keep the red hot Ohio offense off the field as Ball State boasts one of the best running backs in the MAC this season in Carson Steele. He's gotten better as the season has gone on, rushing for a whopping 390 yards while delivering four touchdowns in the last two games alone. The only two occasions where Steele didn't rush for over 100 yards this season came in a blowout loss at Tennessee (in which he had only 11 rush attempts) and a 44-38 win over Northern Illinois in which he found the end zone three times. Here, we'll note that Ohio is a woeful 4-13 ATS in its last 17 road games after consecutive double-digit wins in-conference, as is the case here. Take Ball State (8*). | |||||||
11-14-22 | Hurricanes -220 v. Blackhawks | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Carolina over Chicago at 8:35 pm et on Monday. This is an awful spot for the Blackhawks, returning home off a win at the tail-end of their three-game western road swing, noting that they've scored three goals or less in seven straight games now and catch a Hurricanes squad in a foul mood off a 4-1 loss in Colorado to open their current road trip. While Carolina has been held to one goal or less in three of its last four games, I expect its offensive slump to be short-lived, noting that it is just one game removed from a seven-goal explosion against the Oilers. Carolina took both meetings in this series last season, scoring 10 goals in the process. The Blackhawks are an even weaker team this season in my opinion and they find themselves in the wrong place at the wrong time tonight. Take Carolina (8*). | |||||||
11-14-22 | Commanders +11 v. Eagles | Top | 32-21 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
NFC East Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Philadelphia at 8:15 pm et on Monday. One thing we know when it comes to the Commanders (or the Football Team as I still prefer to call them) is they love to play for their quarterback Taylor Heinecke. The same goes for head coach Ron Rivera - the very definition of a 'player's coach'. While it's been another trying season in Washington, winning only four of nine games to date, this team continues to play competitive football, going 2-0-1 ATS since Heinecke took over for an ineffective Carson Wentz. The first matchup between these two teams was no contest as the Eagles rolled to a 24-8 victory in Washington. I did like the way the Commanders defense played in that contest, however, and really all season long, only allowing more than 25 points on one occasion. You would have to go back six games to find the last time they gave up more than 21 points. Needless to say that's worth noting given the lofty pointspread here. Philadelphia is in danger of coming out a little sleepy here in my opinion, still undefeated on the season and having not played since a week ago Thursday, when it was never really challenged in a 29-17 win in Houston. Note that the Eagles took last year's meeting between these two teams here in Philadelphia by 'only' 10 points. I say 'only' because Washington couldn't have played much worse in that game, gaining only 63 rushing yards on 21 attempts while completing 20-of-31 passes for 174 yards. The Eagles racked up 238 rushing yards and 281 passing yards in that contest. Again, they won by only 10 points. I'm confident the revenge-minded Commanders can close the gap in many regards on Monday and ultimately give the Eagles a bit of a scare at the very least. Only twice in the last three seasons have we seen the Eagles come off five or six ATS wins in their last seven games and on both occasions they failed to cover the spread in their next game. That's the situation here and I look for the Commanders to stay inside the lofty pointspread. Take Washington (10*). | |||||||
11-14-22 | Suns +1.5 v. Heat | 112-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix plus the points over Miami at 7:40 pm et on Monday. The Heat are coming off consecutive wins but those both came against the lowly Hornets. Here, they'll face a much tougher challenge as they host a Suns squad that checks in off a stunning 17-point loss in Orlando on Friday. I'm confident we'll see Phoenix 'get right' against a sagging Heat defense that has allowed five of its last eight opponents to knock down 41+ field goals, going 2-6 ATS over that stretch. Also note that Miami has made good on 40 or fewer field goals in six of its last eight contests. The Suns are an impressive 27-12 ATS in their last 39 games after losing outright as a favorite, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 8.5 points on average in that situation. Take Phoenix (9*). | |||||||
11-14-22 | Raptors v. Pistons UNDER 220 | Top | 115-111 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Monday. After giving up 132 and 118 points in losing efforts to open this three-game road trip, I look for the Raptors to tighten things up considerably on Monday night in Detroit. Toronto has still held three of its last four opponents to 84 or fewer field goal attempts. On the flip side, we find the Raptors down-trodden offensively missing a number of key contributors and having knocked down 38 or fewer field goals in three of their last four games. The Pistons have lost three games in a row, allowing 117 points or more in each contest. Like the Raptors, they're struggling offensively, making good on fewer than 40 field goals in six straight games. Noting that the 'under' is 23-11 in the Pistons last 34 games when coming off consecutive 'over' results, leading to an average total of 216.4 points, we'll confidently take that position here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
11-14-22 | Delaware State v. Villanova -36 | 50-60 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Villanova minus the points over Delaware State at 6:30 pm et on Monday. Villanova has gone 0-2 ATS to open the season including an outright loss against Temple last time out. I expect the Wildcats to 'get right' on Monday, however, as they host Delaware State. The Hornets own an identical 1-1 record to that of Villanova but all records aren't created equal. The Hornets opened their season with a 95-57 blowout loss at Virginia Tech before evening their record with a 104-67 win over, wait for it, Immaculata. Delaware State not surprisingly shot the lights out in that most recent contest but concerning was the fact that it allowed its virtually unknown opponent to make good on 21-of-43 field goal attempts. Take Villanova (8*). | |||||||
11-13-22 | Chargers v. 49ers -7.5 | Top | 16-22 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
SNF Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. While the Chargers inexplicably enter this game with the superior overall record to that of the 49ers, I don't believe they're the better team, at least not given all of the injury blows they've been dealt. The Niners have had their share of key injuries as well but their depth has shone through and they're off their bye week on Sunday, set up in a smash spot offensively. I say this is a smash spot because the Chargers have been horrid against the run, allowing north of 6.0 yards per rush. Needless to say, the Niners can run the football as well as any team in the league, especially with RB Christian McCaffrey even more acclimated with the offense off the bye. I'm also convinced the Niners can get creative with their passing attack in this matchup as well. We've seen the Chargers frustratingly stray away at times from their best all-around offensive player, RB Austin Ekeler, at least in terms of their ground attack. Playing from behind doesn't suit this team particularly well missing its top two receiving threats in Mike Williams and Keenan Allen. Even against an injury-plagued Falcons defense last Sunday, the Chargers were only able to muster 20 points on 245 passing yards (those came on 43 pass attempts). Take San Francisco (10*). | |||||||
11-13-22 | Chargers v. 49ers OVER 45 | Top | 16-22 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
SNF Total of the Year (1H). My selection is on the first half 'over' between Los Angeles and San Francisco at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. I believe this sets up as a smash spot for the 49ers offense against a Chargers defense that has been plagued by a number of key injuries and absolutely shredded by opposing ground attacks, allowing north of 6.0 yards per rush this season. Coming off their bye week and with all of their weapons healthy, including all-world o-lineman Trent Williams, the potential is there for Kyle Shanahan's offense to go off in this spot. I'll play the first half 'over' only as I do think there's a good chance the game becomes lopsided, in which case the Chargers would likely stray away from their effective ground game with RB Austin Ekeler while the 49ers could elect to take the air out of the football. The Niners opened the season with their first four games totalling just 20, 10, 20 and 20 first half points. Since then, their last three contests have reached 35, 27 and 24 points in the first half. Relatively high-scoring first halves have been commonplace for the Chargers this season as their games have reached 17, 23, 34, 38, 23, 38 and 24 points in the first 30 minutes. We can't ignore the Niners defensive injuries, which are numerous, opening the door for the Chargers to at least scheme up positive plays early in this contest. Again, my concern is that the visitors get forced to move away from a more balanced attack as the game progresses, noting that they're without their two top receivers in Mike Williams and Keenan Allen. Take the first half over (10*). | |||||||
11-13-22 | Wolves v. Cavs UNDER 226.5 | 129-124 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Cleveland at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'under' in the Cavs most recent game on Friday night against the Warriors and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Sunday as they return home to host the T'Wolves. Minnesota is having a tough enough time just getting shots off lately, let alone knocking them down. It has hoisted up 81 or fewer field goal attempts in four consecutive games. Cleveland is obviously a stingy defensive squad, yielding 83 or fewer FG attempts to its opponents in four of its last five games. Each of the Cavs last six opponents have knocked down 40 or fewer field goals. Minnesota has quietly been limiting its opponents' pace as well, permitting fewer than 90 FG attempts in seven of its last eight contests. It's been a case of 'feast-or-famine' for the Cavs offense but this isn't an ideal spot, returning home on just one day of rest off a five-game road trip. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
11-13-22 | Colts v. Raiders -4.5 | 25-20 | Loss | -103 | 19 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Las Vegas minus the points over Indianapolis at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I'm not sure that any team has more pent up frustration than the Raiders entering this week's 'get right' matchup with the spiralling Colts at Allegiant Stadium. Las Vegas blew another game in Jacksonville last Sunday, jumping ahead early before going stagnant offensively in the second half in an eventual 27-20 loss. The good news is, this week's opponent is far worse off, as hard as that is to believe. The Colts named Jeff Saturday head coach in a move straight out of left field earlier in the week. While some will buy into Saturday's 'ra-ra, can-do' attitude, I'm not buying it. The talent isn't there on either side of the football but particularly on offense with Sam Ehlinger starting in place of an ineffective Matt Ryan. Ehlinger couldn't have been any worse in last week's road loss against the Patriots. While RB Jonathan Taylor is back this week, there's nothing special about his matchup as the Raiders are capable of containing opposing running backs. Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels likely isn't long for the job - called out yet again after last week's seemingly clueless play-calling against the Jaguars. With that being said, I do think the Raiders rise to the occasion as a team, knowing that they won't be back home again until December 4th. The potential is still there with this team, as we saw in an earlier three-game stretch that saw them win and cover at home against the Broncos and Texans and nearly upset the Chiefs (in a one-point loss) on Monday Night Football in Kansas City. Take Las Vegas (8*). | |||||||
11-13-22 | Texans v. Giants OVER 40.5 | Top | 16-24 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 11 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Texans aren't shying away from handing rookie RB Dameon Pierce a heavy workload as the centerpiece of their offense and that should pay dividends against a Giants defense that has given up a whopping 5.4 yards per rush this season. Houston's offense also gets back underrated WR Nico Collins for this one while it remains to be seen whether Brandin Cooks will return to the field or not. Regardless, I do think the Texans can make some headway, likely playing catch-up most of the day on Sunday. Speaking of bad run defenses, Houston has arguably been even worse than New York in that department. No team has given up more rushing yards or rushing touchdowns this season. That opens the door for another monster performance from Giants RB Saquon Barkley here. Of course, the Giants offense goes as Barkley goes and off their bye week I'm confident they'll get back on track here. Note that prior to losing 27-13 in Seattle last time out (we won with the Seahawks in that game), New York had scored 20+ points in four straight games. Even with a limited passing game, there's reason to believe Daniel Jones can have a one-off breakout performance against a Texans pass defense that has been flamed for 48-of-64 passing over their last three contests. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
11-13-22 | Browns +3.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 17-39 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 51 m | Show |
AFC Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Browns seem like they're always good for one stunner of an upset road win each season and I think this could be it on Sunday in Miami. We successfully faded the Dolphins last Sunday as they won but didn't cover against the Bears in Chicago. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well again as I feel the Browns match up well in a number of areas. There's still time for a bit of a quarterback controversy in Cleveland in advance of Deshaun Watson's impending return to the field in Week 13. I haven't always been high on QB Jacoby Brissett but he did win me over when he last took the field with the Browns in their impressive Monday night win over division-rival Cincinnati two weeks ago. The bye week helped Cleveland get healthier with RG Wyatt Teller among those returning for this week's game - giving a boost to an already terrific Browns ground attack. On the defensive side of the football, Cleveland is expected to have CB Denzel Ward back. While the Browns don't have anyone capable of neutralizing Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill, even if he does go off (again) there's no guarantee Miami can score enough, or make enough stops on defense to secure the cover. The Miami defense continues to play on without three key pass stoppers in corners Byron Jones and Nik Needham and safety Brandon Jones. Xavien Howard has been able to stay in the lineup but he's dealt with injuries to both groins all season long. Here, we'll note that Miami is a woeful 6-21 ATS in its last 27 home games coming off a win by three points or less, outscored by 4.4 points on average in that situation. Take Cleveland (10*). |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ricky Tran | $756 |
ProSportsPicks | $632 |
Joseph D'Amico | $510 |
Joey Tron | $450 |
Tom Macrina | $399 |
Nick Parsons | $344 |
Sean Murphy | $306 |
Jack Jones | $303 |
William Burns | $233 |
Dan Kaiser | $220 |