Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09-10-22 | Dodgers v. Padres UNDER 8 | 8-4 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and San Diego at 8:40 pm et on Saturday. We saw last night's series-opener creep 'over' the total in extra innings. The Dodgers haven't posted an 'under' result since back on August 31st while the Padres are now riding a three-game 'over' streak. I look for a reversal of those trends here. Julio Urias will take the ball for Los Angeles. He's been terrific against the Padres this year, facing them twice and giving up just two earned runs on four hits in 11 innings of work. Likewise for Padres starter Blake Snell against the Dodgers. He struck out 12 over five innings in L.A. back on July 1st. He also struck out 10 in 7 2/3 innings at home against the Dodgers last August. Both starters bring excellent recent form into this start with Urias allowing just four earned runs over his last six starts and Snell giving up one earned run over 12 innings in his last two outings. Both bullpens rate among the best in baseball. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
09-10-22 | Calgary v. Edmonton Elks +10 | Top | 56-28 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
CFL Game of the Week. My selection is on Edmonton plus the points over Calgary at 8 pm et on Saturday. The Elks have very little left to play for as they sit in last place in the West Division. A home game against the rival Stampeders, playing with triple in-season revenge, should get their juices flowing, however. Edmonton kept things close in Monday's matchup between these two teams in Calgary, ultimately losing by just eight points. Note that the Stampeders defense has sagged as the season has gone on. They've now allowed 20+ pass completions in 10 consecutive games. On the flip side, the Stamps have scored 20+ points in four straight contests. They accomplished that feat only once previously this season and went on to score just 19 points in their next game. I saw some positives from the Elks offense on Monday as they gained 74 yards on 18 rush attempts and QB Taylor Cornelius completed 22-of-33 passes for 257 yards - the second straight games in which the Elks threw for 250+ yards. Take Edmonton (10*). | |||||||
09-10-22 | Arizona State v. Oklahoma State UNDER 58 | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 81 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona State and Oklahoma State at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. We missed (badly) with the 'under' in Oklahoma State's season-opener against Central Michigan last week as the Cowboys got off to a red hot start and rolled to a 58-44 victory. I can't help but feel Oklahoma State was somewhat embarrassed by its defensive effort in that game though and look for a much cleaner performance against Arizona State this week. Note that Central Michigan threw the football 49 times in that contest. The Cowboys are likely to see nothing of that sort this week as Arizona State QB Emory Jones is as much a threat on the ground as through the air, the polar opposite of what they saw against Chippewas QB Daniel Richardson last week. I'm confident we'll see Oklahoma State's athletic defense contain Jones for the most part on Saturday. Arizona State cruised to a 40-3 win over Northern Arizona in its opener last week. We're talking about a Sun Devils offense going through an overhaul this season and while hanging 40 points on the board was no small feat, even against an FCS opponent, there was some cause for concern. Note that ASU didn't reach the end zone until nearly midway the second quarter in that game and proceeded to stall out and settle for field goals on three drives in NAU territory in the second half. ASU didn't reach the end zone again after scoring a touchdown less than three minutes into the second half. Again, it faces a much tougher challenge this week. Defensively, credit the Sun Devils for not giving an inch against the Lumberjacks - they easily could have gotten complacent after building an insurmountable lead. They yielded just 119 total yards and only six first downs in that contest. Their mettle will undoubtedly be tested this week but this is a talented unit that I believe can hang with the Cowboys offense. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a perfect 7-0 the last seven times Oklahoma State has come off an 'over' result, as is the case here. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
09-10-22 | Northern Illinois +6.5 v. Tulsa | 35-38 | Win | 100 | 104 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Northern Illinois plus the points over Tulsa at 7 pm et on Saturday. Northern Illinois proved to be the very definition of a 'tough out' last season, culminating with a lopsided victory in the MAC Championship Game followed by a gutsy 47-41 loss against a tremendous Coastal Carolina team during Bowl season. The Huskies didn't look all that impressive in a 34-27 season-opening victory against FCS squad Eastern Illinois last week but there were some positives to take away. Northern Illinois' offensive line figures to be a strength with plenty of experience returning and that held true in Week 1 as QB Rocky Lombardi was only sacked once and unlike last year, wasn't forced to run all that much (he had just one rush attempt in the game). There are questions around who will replace RB Jay Ducker but Harrison Waylee looked like a fine candidate last week, gaining 83 yards and adding a touchdown on 14 carries. The Huskies didn't allow a touchdown until the final three minutes of the third quarter against EIU last week. The fact that they gave up a pair of fourth quarters touchdowns won't sit well, however, and I expect a little more of a 'killer instinct' from the NIU defense here. Tulsa suffered a tough 40-37 double-overtime loss at Wyoming last week. Unlike NIU, Tulsa needs to rework its entire offensive line and that appeared to be a major problem last Saturday as it gave up four sacks in the loss. While the Tulsa defense actually held up better than it showed on paper (Wyoming scored only two offensive touchdowns in regulation time), it was also up against a Cowboys offense that looked putrid the week previous against Illinois. The Golden Hurricane defense will be taking a step up in class here. While Tulsa desperately needs a win here in its home opener, I simply feel that it is being asked to lay too many points. Take Northern Illinois (8*). | |||||||
09-10-22 | Kentucky v. Florida UNDER 53 | Top | 26-16 | Win | 100 | 103 h 31 m | Show |
SEC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Kentucky and Florida at 7 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams enter Saturday's showdown in the Swamp off to 1-0 records. This rivalry has produced plenty of relatively low-scoring contests over the years. You would have to go back to 2017 to find the last time the two teams totalled more than 50 points. While Florida certainly impressed offensively behind a tremendous performance from QB Anthony Richardson in last week's upset win over Utah, it won't benefit from the same element of surprise against the Wildcats. It's not as if Florida tore through the Utes defense last Saturday. In fact, it only managed to score 14 points through the game's first three quarters. I came away impressed by the Gators defense as they allowed an early touchdown in the first four minutes but then held the Utes out of the end zone until the closing seconds of the third quarter. They also came up with a game-clinching interception in the end zone as the clock ticked down in the fourth quarter. Here, the Gators will benefit from facing a Kentucky offense that is reworking its offensive line after a host of departures (it yielded four sacks to QB Will Levis in the opener) and also dealing with the absence of standout RB Chris Rodriguez. Kentucky did score 37 points in last week's victory but that came against a middling MAC squad in Miami-Ohio. The Wildcats scored a touchdown midway through the first quarter but then didn't reach the end zone on offense again until being gifted terrific field position thanks to a Redhawks turnover early in the third quarter (they did return the second half kickoff for a touchdown as well). On the flip side, Kentucky gave up a touchdown in the first six minutes of that game but then held Miami-Ohio out of the end zone for the game's final 54 minutes. I can't help but feel the Wildcats defense is well ahead of the offense at this early stage of the season. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-10-22 | Houston v. Texas Tech -3 | Top | 30-33 | Push | 0 | 101 h 27 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Texas Tech minus the points over Houston at 4 pm et on Saturday. While Houston enters this game nationally-ranked I believe Texas Tech being installed as the favorite is warranted. The Cougars barely pulled out a 37-35 win over Texas-San Antonio last Saturday. While the Roadrunners were going to be a formidable opponent regardless, there was reason for concern around Houston coming out of that contest. The Cougars didn't reach the end zone until the second quarter and then proceeded to allow three consecutive UTSA touchdowns to fall behind 21-7 entering the fourth quarter. While they did ultimately wake up and rally, they also allowed UTSA to march down the field in just 20 seconds and kick a game-tying field goal in the closing seconds of the fourth quarter. It was a shaky performance all around from Houston. Texas Tech on the other hand looked like a well-oiled machine in a 63-10 rout of FCS squad Murray State. The Red Raiders did lose QB Tyler Shough to a shoulder injury in the victory but backup Donovan Smith stepped in and completed 14-of-17 passes for 221 yards and four touchdowns in relief. He saw plenty of playing time during his freshman season last year and I'm confident the offense will keep rolling along with Shough sidelined. Even with third-string QB Behren Morton in the game in the fourth quarter last Saturday, the Red Raiders were still able to tack on another touchdown. Texas Tech defeated Houston 38-21 in last year's meeting at AT&T Stadium. As much as Houston would like to exact its revenge here, I believe it will be hard-pressed to do so. Take Texas Tech (10*). | |||||||
09-10-22 | Memphis v. Navy OVER 51 | Top | 37-13 | Loss | -110 | 103 h 1 m | Show |
AAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Memphis and Navy at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. This total has dropped since opening, an overreaction to Navy's ugly 14-7 loss to FCS squad Delaware in its season-opener last week. Here, I'm anticipating a much higher-scoring affair as the Midshipmen look to avenge last year's 35-17 rout at the hands of Memphis. The Tigers dropped a 49-23 decision at Mississippi State last Saturday (we won with the Bulldogs in that game). Their defense, which struggled last year, has lost a number of key parts and it certainly showed against Mississippi State as they gave up five touchdowns in the first 35 minutes. Even when the game had long been decided, the Bulldogs were able to tack on two touchdowns in the final six minutes of the fourth quarter. The good news is, Memphis did manage to score 20+ points despite going entirely one-dimensional early on. RB Jeyvon Ducker - a transfer from Northern Illinois - was a bright spot, running for 63 yards and a score on just five carries. I do think the potential is there for the Tigers offense to go off against an average Navy defense that certainly doesn't get better by losing a talent like Diego Fagot to the NFL. Fagot isn't the only departure from a Navy defense that wasn't all that great to begin with last year (as I mentioned earlier, the Midshipmen gave up 35 points in last year's matchup against Memphis). Navy's offense was putrid against Delaware last week. There's no reason to expect the Midshipmen to be that bad offensively here in 2022. They did gain 319 total yards in that setback and had 17 first downs compared to Delaware's 13. Three failed fourth down conversions contributed to Navy's downfall in that contest. I believe the potential is there for this one to go back-and-forth all afternoon long and we're being offered a favorable total to work with when you consider last year's meeting saw a closing number of 56. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-10-22 | Colorado v. Air Force -17 | 10-41 | Win | 100 | 103 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Air Force minus the points over Colorado at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I really like the way this one sets up for Air Force as it looks to improve to 2-0 on the season after last week's 48-17 rout of FCS squad Northern Iowa. The Falcons offense appeared to be in midseason form in that contest, scoring six touchdowns and racking up just shy of 700 yards of total offense. Colorado's defense actually held up as well as could have been expected, at least through the first three quarters, but still lost by a 38-13 score against TCU last Saturday, at home no less. Concerning was the fact that the Buffaloes had no response to TCU's halftime adjustments on offense, allowing four second half touchdowns, including three in an eight-minute span when the game was on the line in the fourth quarter. Offensively, Colorado didn't come up with a touchdown until the game was completely out of hand (the Horned Frogs led 38-6 at the time) in the game's final two minutes. Air Force's Week 1 victory could have been even more lopsided were it not for it allowing two late scores in the fourth quarter. I think that lack of focus on the defensive side of the football late actually helps our cause here and the Falcons know they'll have to display more of a killer instinct against a tougher opponent than they faced last week. These two teams last met in 2019 with Air Force prevailing by a 30-23 score. The talent gap has widened since in my opinion. While the Falcons do lose plenty of key pieces from last year's team, particularly on defense, I'm not convinced Colorado has the offense, which still lacks a true leader at quarterback, to take advantage. Take Air Force (9*). | |||||||
09-10-22 | Washington State +17.5 v. Wisconsin | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 79 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington State plus the points over Wisconsin at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. It's time to start giving Wazzou the respect it deserves. The Cougars have gone Bowling in six of the last seven seasons. They're a profitable 33-22 ATS the last 55 times they've checked in as an underdog priced between +10.5 and +21, as is the case here. While last week's narrow 24-17 victory over Idaho was unimpressive, I'm willing to give the Cougars a mulligan as they're working in a new offense with a number of new pieces. There were positives to take away. The ground game got rolling with former Wisconsin RB Nakia Watson gaining 117 yards on just 18 carries while also hauling in a couple of catches for 17 yards. Once QB Cam Ward settled in, he threw for three touchdowns over the game's final three quarters. There was a stretch where Washington State scored on three consecutive drives. Three lost fumbles contributed to the low-scoring result but that can be cleaned up. It's the Cougars defense that has the potential to be special this year in my opinion. While it came against lowly Idaho, Washington State did rack up seven sacks to go along with a pair of interceptions in last week's victory. The secondary might be the weak spot early on but does Wisconsin have the type of offense to take advantage? The Badgers rolled to a 38-0 rout of FCS squad Illinois State in their season-opener. Note that the offense didn't reach the end zone until early in the second quarter in that contest (Wisconsin did score on a pick-six late in the first quarter). As usual, QB Graham Mertz was little more than a game manager with RB Braelon Allen doing much of the heavy lifting, running for 148 yards and two touchdowns on 14 carries (96 of those yards came on one touchdown run). While I'm not about to call for an outright upset, I do think the Cougars will be a 'tough out' on Saturday afternoon in Madison. Take Washington State (8*). | |||||||
09-10-22 | Southern Miss v. Miami-FL UNDER 55 | 7-30 | Win | 100 | 100 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Southern Miss and Miami at 12 noon et on Saturday. Miami scored a whopping 70 points in its season-opening win over FCS squad Bethune-Cookman - a statement performance for a team that enters the 2022 campaign with sky-high expectations. While the Hurricanes should stay undefeated here, I don't expect them to find the going nearly as easy offensively. Bethune-Cookman quite simply couldn't keep its offense on the field early in last week's game, allowing 42 points in the first half alone. I do think Southern Miss can do a better job of that with an effective ground attack led by Frank Gore Jr., who ran for 178 yards on 32 carries in last week's triple-overtime loss to Liberty. The Golden Eagles beefed up their offensive line through the transfer portal during the offseason and it appeared to pay immediate dividends as they gave up just one sack and ran for 252 yards as a team in the season-opener. While they were able to move the football, the question remains whether the Golden Eagles offense can score with any sort of consistency. They didn't find the end zone until nearly five minutes into the third quarter against Liberty. That was one of just two offensive touchdowns in the entire game, which included three overtime periods. Now they face a Miami squad that gave up just one touchdown last week and that came after the game was already well in hand midway through the second quarter (28-3 was the score at that time). Defensively, I'll give Southern Miss some credit. It didn't yield a touchdown until the final three minutes of the first half against Liberty last week. While Miami poses a much more difficult challenge, I'm confident USM can at the very least keep the final score respectable, lending itself to a lower-scoring affair than most are anticipating. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
09-09-22 | Boise State v. New Mexico UNDER 45.5 | Top | 31-14 | Win | 100 | 86 h 10 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Boise State and New Mexico at 9 pm et on Friday. This total has already dropped from the opener and I believe the move is warranted. Boise State was stunned 34-17 on the road against Oregon State in its season-opener last Saturday. While most are expecting the Broncos to take out their frustrations on a hapless New Mexico squad on Friday (and that very well could happen), I'm not anticipating a shootout. The Broncos actually benched QB Hank Bachmeier after a shaky start against the Beavers last week. While this might look like an ideal bounce-back spot at first glance, Boise State can ill afford to overlook the Lobos, who are coming off a 41-0 rout of FCS squad Maine last week. While it's highly unlikely we see New Mexico hang another crooked number on the scoreboard, I'm confident its defense can hang. This is an experienced and talented group that got off to about as good of a start as you could hope for, holding Maine to just 118 total yards in the shutout victory. Boise State didn't even manage to score a point until a field goal nearly three minutes into the third quarter against Oregon State. It didn't find the end zone until the final three minutes of that third quarter, when the game was already all but out of reach. This isn't the same Boise State offensive juggernaut that we've seen in years' past. While their offense remains a question mark, I certainly expect a better performance from the Broncos defense this week. New Mexico did put up 41 points in its season-opening win but it was actually held scoreless through the first quarter and there weren't a whole lot of explosive plays. Kansas transfer QB Miles Kendrick threw for only 170 yards, the Lobos leading rusher tallied just 58 yards and their top receiver racked up only 54 yards. Maine simply couldn't get off the field defensively but we can anticipate a much different story playing out here, noting that Boise State shut out New Mexico in last year's meeting. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-09-22 | Louisville v. Central Florida -6 | Top | 20-14 | Loss | -110 | 85 h 52 m | Show |
My selection is on Central Florida minus the points over Louisville at 7:30 pm et on Friday. While it garnered little attention leading up to last week's season-opener, UCF looks like the real deal here in 2022. The Knights kicked off their campaign with a resounding 56-10 win over FCS squad South Carolina State. While the opposition in that game left a lot to be desired there was still a lot to like about the Knights performance. It took them less than a quarter to jump ahead by three touchdowns and while the offense was humming, I was equally impressed by the defense. UCF held South Carolina State out of the end zone until nearly midway through the third quarter and didn't yield another score after that. Now comes an admittedly tougher matchup against Louisville on Friday night at the Bounce House. The Cardinals are coming off a demoralizing season-opening loss at Syracuse and while it's extremely early you can't help but feel head coach Scott Satterfield's days as sideline chief could be numbered. Louisville couldn't muster any sort of offensive attack in that loss, scoring a touchdown with just over a minute remaining in the first quarter but then not coming up with a single score the rest of the way. I also didn't like the way the defense folded in the fourth quarter, allowing a pair of touchdowns when the game was still in reach. Noting that Louisville took last year's meeting between these two teams in Kentucky, I look for the revenge-minded Knights to get some payback here. Take Central Florida (10*). | |||||||
09-09-22 | Red Sox v. Orioles -126 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
MLB Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Baltimore over Boston at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The Orioles just dropped three of four games against the Blue Jays to fall 4.5 games back of the final Wild Card spot in the American League. Needless to say, they can ill afford another slip-up this weekend against the Red Sox. Fortunately for Baltimore, Boston is reeling as well, fresh off a three-game sweep at the hands of the Rays. The Red Sox will hand the ball to rookie Brayan Bello on Friday. He's coming off the best start of his young career, tossing six shutout innings against the Rangers. That start came at home. In two road outings, Bello has been tagged for eight earned runs on 12 hits in just eight innings. Austin Voth will counter for Baltimore. He's quietly enjoying a terrific season - the best of his young career - but he didn't have his best stuff last time out, yielding six hits and one earned run while lasting only 3 1/3 innings. While the two bullpens enter in similar recent form, the O's have without question had more success in that department this season, posting a collective 2.80 ERA and 1.17 WHIP while converting 18 saves and blowing only six here at home. Take Baltimore (10*). | |||||||
09-08-22 | Bills v. Rams OVER 52 | 31-10 | Loss | -110 | 59 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Buffalo and Los Angeles at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. For the second straight year, the NFL has scheduled a potential shootout in the Thursday night opener as the Bills head to Los Angeles to challenge the defending Super Bowl champion Rams. Buffalo loses offensive coordinator Brian Daboll to the Giants head coaching job but I expect the train to keep rolling with Ken Dorsey, who has been working with the offense and Josh Allen in particular for the last three seasons, taking over the play-calling reins. Not much should change as far as the Bills offensive gameplan. They want to play fast and put the ball in the hands of their playmakers, led by WRs Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis, who many have pegged for a breakout season given Buffalo's offseason departures at the position. I like the addition of second-round draft pick, RB James Cook, who should add another element to the Bills short passing game. While the Rams are thought of as an elite defensive team, they actually proved vulnerable against the better passing attacks they faced last year, with little help in the secondary around standout corner Jalen Ramsey. The Rams offense catches a break with the Bills missing their top corner in Tre'Davious White. Rams WR Cooper Kupp presents a mismatch for most opposing defenses and the Bills are no different. While Buffalo's offense continues to get better with each passing year, its defense doesn't get better by losing White to the PUP list. Keep an eye on Rams offseason acquisition, WR Allen Robinson, who has to be ecstatic to get out of Chicago and into this ultra-efficient offense led by QB Matt Stafford. While not always flashy, the Rams offense is capable of keeping pace with the Bills in this passing-friendly environment indoors at SoFi Stadium on Thursday. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-08-22 | Giants v. Brewers -197 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee over San Francisco at 4:10 pm et on Thursday. This is a smash spot for the Brewers after getting their lunch handed to them in the last two games in Colorado. Corbin Burnes is also in a big-time bounce-back spot after three consecutive poor outings. The Giants haven't figured him out yet this year as they've managed to scratch out just one earned run in 14 innings, striking out 21 times along the way. San Francisco's season continues to circle down the drain after another series loss in Los Angeles. The Giants look like they could be 'punting' this one, starting Scott Alexander who will likely play an 'opener' role here. Brewers bounce back. Take Milwaukee (8*). | |||||||
09-08-22 | Sheriff +0.5 v. Omonia Nicosia | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sheriff Tiraspol +0.5 goals over Omonia Nicosia at 3 pm et on Thursday. I expect goals to come at a premium in this match (as indicated by the low posted total), for a couple of different reasons. The trends support such a call as Omonia Nicosia has seen seven of its last eight contests feature two goals or less while it's the same story for Sheriff Tiraspol in five of its last six matches. But more than that, these two teams will be desperate to come away with at least a point given the difficult nature of this group, which also features Manchester United and Real Sociedad. Neither team can afford to come away empty-handed here so I can't help but feel a draw is in the best interest of both. Also note that Sheriff enters this match having gone undefeated across its last six matches. While Omonia does have the benefit of playing this one at home, I'm not sure its enough to warrant the favorite tag. Take Sheriff Tiraspol +0.5 goals (8*). | |||||||
09-08-22 | Arsenal v. Zurich OVER 3 | Top | 2-1 | Push | 0 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
Europa League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between FC Zurich and Arsenal at 12:45 pm et on Thursday. This has the potential to be one of the highest-scoring matches on Thursday's Europa League board. Zurich brings a streak of seven consecutive matches finding the back of the net and I'm confident that run will remain intact here. Note that Arsenal has conceded in three consecutive matches. The Gunners have also seen each of their last five matches total 3+ goals. The same goes for Zurich in four of its last five contests. The Swiss side will obviously have its hands full here as Arsenal has shown that quick-strike ability, scoring first in eight of its last 10 matches. I feel that Zurich will be able to answer on its home soil, helping send this one 'over' the total. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-07-22 | Brewers -133 v. Rockies | 4-8 | Loss | -133 | 8 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee over Colorado at 3:10 pm et on Wednesday. I'm always looking for spots where pitchers (and hitters) can make the necessary adjustments in particular matchups and this situation sets up nicely for the Brewers on both fronts. Eric Lauer struggled against the Rockies back on July 24th, yielding four earned runs on six hits and lasting only 4 1/3 innings. In two starts against them last year he gave up just three earned runs over 11 innings. Since that late-July outing, Lauer has given up two earned runs or less in five of his last seven trips to the hill. Meanwhile, the Brewers were held scoreless over seven innings against today's opposing starter, Kyle Freeland, back on July 25th. That was in Milwaukee. They'll catch him at Coors Field today, where he owns a 6.10 ERA and 1.58 WHIP this season. Both bullpens are in similar recent form but it's the Brewers relief corps that has been more reliable as a whole this season, entering last night's action with a 3.85 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Take Milwaukee (8*). | |||||||
09-07-22 | Liverpool v. Napoli +0.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 18 h 36 m | Show |
Champions League Game of the Month. My selection is on Napoli +0.5 goals over Liverpool at 3 pm et on Wednesday. We're being offered excellent value with Napoli catching half a goal in the first leg of this Champions League matchup on Wednesday. Keep in mind, this match will take place in Naples, where Napoli took down Liverpool on two previous occasions in Champions League action in 2018 and 2019. Napoli enters Wednesday's match riding an incredible 16-match undefeated streak. Also note that Liverpool has conceded first in five of its last seven matches overall. Give me the younger Italian side with a chip on its shoulder as an underdog on its home pitch on Wednesday. Take Napoli +0.5 goals (10*). | |||||||
09-07-22 | Bayer Leverkusen v. Club Brugge KV +0.5 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 17 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Club Brugge +0.5 goals over Bayer Leverkusen at 3 pm et on Wednesday. There's not a lot to choose between these two sides but it is worth noting that Club Brugge has gone undefeated across its last five matches, winning four in a row entering Wednesday's clash with Bayer Leverkusen. I like the aggressiveness we've seen from Club Brugge early in recent matches as it has found the back of the net first in eight of its last 10 contests. Leverkusen has played a fairly wide-open style with six of its last seven matches reaching more than 2.5 total goals. Both teams are young and relatively inexperienced in Champions League play but Leverkusen is actually slightly younger with an average age just slightly over 25 years. I'm not convinced the German side is ever able to put this one away in Belgium. Take Club Brugge +0.5 goals (8*). | |||||||
09-06-22 | Diamondbacks v. Padres OVER 7 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and San Diego at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. We missed with the 'over' in the series-opener between these two teams last night. The D'Backs did their part scoring five runs but the Padres were held off the scoreboard entirely. Here, I look for San Diego to bounce back offensively as it sees Arizona starter Merrill Kelly for the third time this season. As I noted in yesterday's analysis, both bullpens have struggled lately. The D'Backs relief corps entered this series sporting a collective 6.66 ERA and 1.52 WHIP over the last seven games. San Diego's 'pen had posted a 7.98 ERA and 2.07 WHIP over the same stretch. While Padres starter Joe Musgrove is thought of as an elite pitcher, the opposition has scored 10, 8, 7, 7, 4, 3, 1, 5 and 4 runs in his last eight trips to the hill. The D'Backs will be seeing Musgrove for the second time this season and the fourth time since the start of last year, plating eight earned runs on 18 hits over 17 innings in their three previous games against him over that stretch. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-05-22 | Giants v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | 7-4 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Monday. This series-opener pits two starting pitchers that we generally like to support. I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair at Chavez Ravine on Monday night. Logan Webb will take the ball for the Giants. His recent results have been a mixed bag but we know he can pitch well against the Dodgers as he has posted a 3.25 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 10 career outings against them. On the season, Webb owns a 3.19 FIP and 1.18 WHIP while allowing 3.6 runs per nine innings. Andrew Heaney got off to a tremendous start to his Dodgers career after returning from injury earlier this season but has since struggled. I'm still confident in his ability to right the ship, noting that he has recorded a 3.29 FIP and 1.05 WHIP in 46 2/3 innings pitched this season. The Giants bullpen entered yesterday's action sporting a collective 2.96 ERA and 1.54 WHIP over the last seven games while the Dodgers relief corps posted a 1.93 ERA and 0.94 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
09-05-22 | Rangers v. Astros UNDER 8 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Texas and Houston at 7:10 pm et on Monday. We'll take a flyer on Astros rookie starter Hunter Brown on Monday but we'll do so by playing the 'under' in this divisional matchup. Brown has logged 100+ innings at the AAA level this season and he's fared exceptionally well, posting a 2.55 ERA and 1.09 WHIP while allowing a paltry 0.4 home runs per nine innings. He should pitch confidently knowing that the bullpen behind him has been lights out, recording a 1.00 ERA and 0.78 WHIP over the last seven games, entering yesterday's actoin. Martin Perez will take the ball for Texas. He's struggled in his last two outings against the Astros but does have a stellar start here in Houston to his credit this season, tossing a complete game shutout at Minute Maid Park back on May 20th. Perez owns a 3.32 FIP and 1.23 WHIP this season, yielding just shy of 3.3 runs per nine innings. While the Rangers bullpen has struggled lately, it did turn things around with four shutout innings in yesterday's game in Boston. Entering that contest, the Rangers 'pen had logged a respectable 3.39 ERA and 1.29 WHIP on the road this season. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
09-05-22 | Diamondbacks v. Padres OVER 8 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
N.L. Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and San Diego at 6:40 pm et on Monday. The Padres just had their lunch handed to them by the Dodgers over the weekend and limp home for a favorable matchup against rookie Ryne Nelson, making his first big league start, and the D'Backs. Nelson hasn't fared well at the AAA level this season, posting a 5.43 ERA and 1.39 WHIP while allowing 1.7 home runs per nine innings. Behind him is an unreliable D'Backs bullpen that entered yesterday's action sporting a collective 6.00 ERA and 1.56 WHIP over the last seven games. Speaking of bullpens, the Padres relief corps recorded a 7.29 ERA and 2.00 WHIP over the same stretch. That unit will be working behind starter Blake Snell on Monday. Snell has turned his season around but still owns a less than impressive 1.32 WHIP and allows north of 4.0 runs per nine innings. The Snakes haven't fared well against Snell in his five career starts against them but they've yet to face him this season. Note that Arizona checks in averaging 4.8 runs per game against left-handed starting pitching this season, compared to its 4.4 rpg season scoring average (entering yesterday's action). Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-05-22 | Toronto v. Hamilton UNDER 49.5 | 28-8 | Win | 100 | 5 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Hamilton at 1 pm et on Monday. This is a rematch of a meeting between these two teams just last week as the Argos rolled to a 37-20 home victory. The Ti-Cats were marred by four critical turnovers in that game, directly leading to Toronto hanging a crooked number on the scoreboard. I expect a more cautious approach from the Hamilton offense here. The Ti-Cats know they can manage the Argos offense - provided they don't hand them excellent field position time and time again. Note that Toronto amassed only 337 total yards in last week's victory. Hamilton has held 10 of its 11 opponents to 90 or fewer rushing yards this season while allowing more than 25 pass completions only once in those 11 contests. While the Argos defense has been vulnerable at times, I'm not convinced the Ti-Cats can take full advantage. Hamilton's ground game has fizzled since ripping off 149 yards against Toronto on August 12th. In two games since, the Ti-Cats have managed just 68 yards on 15 carries against Montreal and 64 yards on 20 attempts last week against the Argos. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
09-04-22 | Winnipeg v. Saskatchewan UNDER 44.5 | Top | 20-18 | Win | 100 | 100 h 16 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Winnipeg and Saskatchewan at 6 pm et on Sunday. I really like the way this total sets up on Sunday as the Blue Bombers and Roughriders meet for the first time in the 2022 season. Last year's three matchups between these two teams totalled 31, 42 and 38 points, with the latter result coming in the West Division Final. The Blue Bombers enter this game off one of their worst defensive efforts of the season, yet they still won that game by a 31-29 score over Calgary. In that contest, the Stampeders turned in a near perfect offensive performance, running for 115 yards on 18 attempts while completing 23-of-28 passes for 294 yards. They still 'only' scored 29 points. I don't envision the Riders improving or even coming close to reaching those numbers here. Saskatchewan performed about as well as anyone could have expected as it staged a 23-16 upset at B.C. last week. The Riders ran for 164 yards on 23 rush attempts and completed 19-of-24 passes for 321 yards in that victory. Again, Saskatchewan was that efficient offensively but still scored 'only' 23 points. Winnipeg has leaned heavily on its ground attack this season as its passing game hasn't been quite as effective or explosive as we've seen in years' past. The Bombers have ripped off 118+ rushing yards in four straight games entering this contest. The Riders present a difficult challenge in that regard, however, as they've given up 100+ rushing yards only twice in seven games this season - that's despite the fact that they've lost four of seven contests. This is actually a more critical matchup in the West Division than it might appear at first glance. While the Blue bombers sit atop the West Division at 6-1, with a loss here, the Riders would pull within two games of them noting that these two teams will meet two more times in September. With that in mind, I'm anticipating a tightly-contested affair, which lends itself to a relatively low-scoring game on Sunday afternoon in Regina. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-04-22 | A's v. Orioles OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
My selection is on the first five innings ‘over’ between Oakland and Baltimore at 1:35 pm et on Sunday. | |||||||
09-03-22 | Memphis v. Mississippi State -16.5 | 23-49 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Mississippi State minus the points over Memphis at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. I see Mississippi State as a program on the way up in the SEC, but one that isn't being talked about nearly enough. This is a very manageable opening week matchup against a Memphis squad that needs to replace too many key parts on both sides of the football. Yes, Memphis will have Seth Henigan back at QB but you don't get better replacing the likes of WR Calvin Austin and TE Sean Dykes. The Tigers offense will likely be fine but it's going to take some time to ramp up and this is a nightmarish Week 1 road tilt. Mississippi State returns the bulk of the talent that led to a promising season on defense a year ago. The potential is there for this group to be even better in 2022. Of course, the Bulldogs offense is the real star of the show with Mike Leach getting this unit up to speed under the guidance of QB Will Rogers - who I consider to be one of the more underrated passers in the nation. The ground game may not be all that explosive but the potential is there to be better working behind an offensive line that returns the interior. I expect that o-line to bully a relatively green defensive front. Take Mississippi State (8*). | |||||||
09-03-22 | Army +2 v. Coastal Carolina | Top | 28-38 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
CFB Game of the Week. My selection is on Army plus the points over Coastal Carolina at 7 pm et on Saturday. It was a tremendous run for Coastal Carolina, going an incredible 14-2 over the last two seasons. Prior to that we saw three consecutive 2-6 campaigns from the Chanticleers as they made the adjustment to life in FBS. While they're unlikely to return to those depths again, there's simply too much turnover to instill much confidence entering the 2022 campaign. I see this as a tough opening week matchup against an experienced Army squad that will continue its ascension this year. The Black Knights are no doubt still stinging from last December's loss to Navy but they responded with a huge Bowl victory over Missouri and now draw an opponent that will certainly have their full attention to start this season. Army returns the majority of the offense that rolled through the opposition last year but I believe the defense could be the key. The Black Knights got torched through the air in 2021 but now the seondary returns a ton of experience and the performance of that unit could be the difference-maker between a good and a great 2022 season. The good news here is that Coastal Carolina is working in some new pieces at wide receiver after losing a ton of talent from last year's offense. While the experience at quarterback helps the Chanticleers cause with Grayson McCall back in the fold, his supporting cast might take some time to come around. Coastal Carolina is forced to make wholesales changes to its linebacking corps this season and that hurts in a matchup like this. Look for Army's triple-option to get rolling and ultimately help the Black Knights pull away for a key road victory to open the season. Take Army (10*). | |||||||
09-03-22 | NC State v. East Carolina UNDER 52 | 21-20 | Win | 100 | 71 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between N.C. State and East Carolina at 12 noon et on Saturday. While this one is being priced as a potential shootout, I think we could be in for something closer resembling a slugfest. N.C. State has high hopes entering the 2022 campaign and if you’ve followed this program over the years, you know that high expectations aren’t always a good thing in Raleigh. While the offense does get standout QB Devin Leary back, his supporting cast needs some work. You don’t get better by losing an offensive line anchor like Ikem Ekwonu, who has moved on to greener pastures with the Carolina Panthers. This is also an offense that needs to have the ground game going to truly take off and the Wolfpack lose their top two running backs from a year ago. Unlike the offense, the defense should be ready to rock right out of the gates. Only 13 teams in the entire country finished ahead of N.C. State in terms of points per game allowed last season. The potential is there to be even better this year with a ton of returning talent and experience across the board. East Carolina carries a reputation of being an explosive offensive team that doesn’t play a lick of defense. That may have been true a number of years ago but isn’t necessarily the case anymore. Sure, the Pirates can score, but like N.C. State they’ll be working in plenty of new parts outside of QB Holton Ahlers. One thing is for sure, the Pirates want to run the football and will undoubtedly be looking to control the time of possession and effectively shorten this game to give themselves the best chance of staging an upset as a sizeable underdog against a nationally-ranked opponent on Saturday. ECU hasn’t been able to hang its hat on its defense for years. That could change in 2022 though. Even without any semblance of a pass rush, the Pirates were able to hang around the middle of the pack in the AAC from a defensive standpoint last year. Now the experience and talent is there to take a big step forward. As I mentioned earlier, the Wolfpack aren’t exactly working with a full cupboard in terms of offensive talent, at least not at this early stage of the season, and I see this as a matchup the Pirates defense can handle in Week 1. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
09-02-22 | Ottawa v. Montreal UNDER 49.5 | 38-24 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Ottawa and Montreal at 7:30 pm et on Friday. I don't believe we're in store for a shootout like we saw between these two teams in their first meeting this season - a game that totalled 73 points back in July. Note that Ottawa has scored more than 25 points in a game only once this season, that coming in that 40-33 loss to Montreal. Meanwhile, the Alouettes had put up 20 points or fewer in three consecutive games before scoring 29 in a one-point win over a sagging Hamilton defense last time out. Montreal hasn't had any semblance of a ground attack this season and now faces an Ottawa squad that has put together a terrific stretch in terms of pass defense, allowing just 14, 16 and 14 pass completions over its last three games. On the flip side, Ottawa attempted 33 passes against a bad Elks defense last week but could only muster 252 passing yards. The RedBlacks have passed for 300+ yards only once this season. That was against the Als but I'm confident Montreal will make the necessary adjustments here. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
09-02-22 | Virginia Tech v. Old Dominion UNDER 50 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 78 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Virginia Tech and Old Dominion at 7 pm et on Friday. It's not going to be easy for Virginia Tech to replace do-it-all QB Braxton Burmeister this season (he transferred to San Diego State). Not only that but the Hokies have a new offensive coordinator in Tyler Bowen who will look to jumpstart an offense that sputtered at the best of times last year. Not only is Burmeister gone but so are the Hokies top two wide receivers from a year ago. While I do like former Temple standout Jadan Blue, he like new QB Grant Wells, will take some time to get acclimated with the new offense. To put it simply, there are just too many new parts to expect this offense to rock right out of the gates in 2022. The good news is, the Hokies defense has a lot more returning faces to a group that was solid a year ago and has the potential to be special here in 2022. The secondary could be an early weakness but I'm not convinced Old Dominion will be able to take full advantage. The Monarchs do have plenty of returnees on offense but this is still an ACC vs. Sun Belt matchup so don't count on an offensive explosion here in Week 1. ODU knows the path to an upset win here is controlling the tempo and controlling the clock and I think it can do that to some extent thanks in large part to four of five returning starters on the offensive line and a terrific backfield tandem in Blake Watson and Elijah Davis. ODU's defense struggled against the pass a year ago, but again, I'm not sure the Hokies have the pieces in place to take advantage here in Week 1. This is without question an average Monarchs defense but it will benefit from matching up against a very average Hokies offense here. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
09-02-22 | Rockies v. Reds OVER 9 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 52 m | Show |
N.L. Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Friday. I like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair on Friday night in Cincinnati. Kyle Freeland will take the ball for Colorado. He checks in with a 4.50 FIP and 1.40 WHIP this season, allowing 5.26 runs per nine innings. Note that the Reds will be out for revenge against the left-hander after being held to just one earned run over seven innings against him back in May. Despite the Reds poor showing at the plate in that game, we still saw 11 total runs. Luis Cessa gets the start for Cincinnati. This will be his first home start of the season. I don't expect it to go well, noting that he's been tagged for 1.9 home runs per nine innings and now has to pitch at a hitter-friendly park. Note that Cessa sports a 5.50 FIP and 1.44 WHIP while yielding 5.77 runs per nine innings this season. Neither bullpen has been reliable this season. The Rockies relief corps entered last night's action sporting a collective 5.24 ERA and 1.56 WHIP on the road this season. Meanwhile, the Reds 'pen owns a 4.89 ERA and 1.40 WHIP at home. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-01-22 | Central Michigan v. Oklahoma State UNDER 60.5 | Top | 44-58 | Loss | -110 | 81 h 24 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between Central Michigan and Oklahoma State at 7 pm et on Thursday. It may surprise you to find out that Central Michigan finished 24th in the entire country in total offense last season. So perhaps it's understandable that we're dealing with a total just shy of 60 in this season-opener against Oklahoma State. The issue for the Chips this year, as if often the case with these smaller schools, is roster turnover. Last year's standout WR Kalil Pimpleton is trying out for the Detroit Lions. The offensive line lost a pair of tackles to the NFL. There are going to be some growing pains early on but I do think the Chips can at the very least move the football consistently enough to keep the offense on the field for extended stretches, even in the face of a fierce defensive opponent in Oklahoma State. One thing is for sure, Central Michigan will have little interest in getting involved in a high-scoring shootout here in Week 1. The uglier the game, the better the chances of the Chips staging a massive upset. Not unlike the offense, the CMU defense will be missing a number of key pieces from last year's group. It's not a surprising that a number of the Chips top defenders from a year ago were hot commodities in the transfer portal (and the NFL Draft) as this is a unit that ranked tops in the entire country in tackles for loss. Interestingly, the secondary was the weakness last year but could turn out to be a strength here in 2022. I don't anticipate the Chips defense trying to be too cute in this difficult matchup, instead look for a gameplan that will involve keeping everything in front of them in an effort to keep the Cowboys explosive offense in check. Oklahoma State has had a tendency to get off to slow starts offensively in recent years, putting up 16 points in a win over Tulsa two years ago and 23 points in a victory over FCS squad Missouri State in last season's opener. The return of QB Spencer Sanders will have most expecting the Cowboys offense to come storming out of the gate. I do think there were enough offseason losses to warrant some pause as far as expectations go, at least in Week 1. The Cowboys lose two starters on the offensive line including current Philadelphia Eagle Josh Sills. Top wide receiver Tay Martin is off to the NFL as well. That's not to mention the absence of standout RB duo Jaylen Warren and Dezmon Jackson. No team registered more sacks last season than Oklahoma State and while there are a number of notable departures on defense, those returning and those shuffling in are exceptional. The return of Trace Ford from injury only adds to an already dominant pass rush. Let's keep it brief by saying there are just enough key pieces moving on to allow the Chips to at least have a hope of moving the chains and ultimately keeping the Oklahoma State offense off the field long enough to help keep this one 'under' the generous total, but don't expect any miracles from the CMU offense. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-01-22 | Dodgers -140 v. Mets | 3-5 | Loss | -140 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over New York at 4:10 pm et on Thursday. The Mets snapped their brief two-game skid with a victory behind another stellar outing from Jacob deGrom last night. Here, I look for the Dodgers answer back and secure the series win. Clayton Kershaw will make his first start since the first week of August for the Dodgers. Before hitting the shelf, Kershaw had posted a 2.72 FIP and 0.98 WHIP while allowing only 3.06 runs per nine innings this season. Note that he'll be facing a Mets team that averages just 4.2 runs per game against left-handed starting pitching this season, compared to their 4.7 rpg season scoring average. Los Angeles' bullpen has been terrific all season and entered last night's action sporting a collective 2.42 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over the last seven games. Chris Bassitt will counter for New York. If you follow my plays regularly you know that I'm generally high on Bassitt. However, his numbers just don't match Kershaw's this season as he checks in with a 3.53 FIP and 1.13 WHIP while allowing just shy of 3.5 runs per nine innings this season. Also note that the Dodgers will be seeing him for the second time this year after knocking him around for four runs, three of them earned, over six innings back in June. In fact, in two games against Bassitt going back to last season the Dodgers have plated seven earned runs on 14 hits in 12 innings. There's not a lot negative I can say about the Mets bullpen as a whole this season, but it is worth noting that it entered last night's action with a 1.53 WHIP over the last seven games. Take Los Angeles (8*). | |||||||
08-31-22 | Royals v. White Sox -187 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the Royals in the first five innings in the opener of this series last night. I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the White Sox on Wednesday as they send veteran Lance Lynn to the mound against Kris Bubic of the Royals. Bubic has been a punching bag for us (and opposing hitters) all season long, recording a 4.80 FIP and 1.68 WHIP while getting tagged for 6.25 runs per nine innings. He actually held up well against the White Sox back on August 10th. I'm confident the White Sox will get their revenge here, noting that Bubic has posted a 9.45 ERA and 2.48 WHIP in three starts since that outing. Lance Lynn has also had a tough time this season but he's marginally better than Bubic and has an excellent track record against the Royals. Note that Lynn owns a 4.24 FIP and 1.19 WHIP while yielding 5.59 runs per nine innings this season. In his last three home starts against the Royals, including an outing earlier this month, he has allowed just three earned runs in 21 1/3 innings of work. The Kansas City bullpen has been a mess, posting a collective 7.40 ERA and 1.79 WHIP over the last seven games. The White Sox 'pen hasn't been anything special, but like Lynn against Bubic, it is marginally better than the Royals relief corps and has converted 19 saves while blowing only nine at home this season. Take Chicago (8*). | |||||||
08-31-22 | Rockies v. Braves -1.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -135 | 12 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over Colorado at 7:20 pm et on Wednesday. We’ll continue to fade Rockies starter Ryan Feltner, despite the fact that the Rockies have managed to split his last four outings. Feltner checks in with a 4.92 FIP and 1.42 WHIP while allowing 6.16 runs per nine innings on the season. His counterpart on Wednesday will be Kyle Wright, who I consider to be one of the most underrated starters in baseball this year. Wright owns a 3.56 FIP and 1.13 WHIP while holding the opposition to just 3.17 runs per nine innings. The bullpen matchup goes to the Braves in this one as well as their relief corps has been terrific at home this season while the Rockies ‘pen has been a disaster (as usual) on the road. Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (8*). | |||||||
08-31-22 | Cardinals -1.5 v. Reds | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis -1.5 runs over Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Wednesday. We’ll back the Cardinals on Wednesday as they hand the ball to Jose Quintana against Mike Minor of the Reds. Quintana has enjoyed a ‘turn back the clock’ type of season, posting a 3.28 FIP and 1.32 WHIP while allowing just shy of 4.0 runs per nine innings. It’s been a much different story for Minor as he has labored through the 2022 campaign, recording a 5.89 FIP and 1.54 WHIP while getting tagged for 6.55 runs per nine frames. As far as recent form goes, the bullpen matchup is fairly even. With that being said, the Cards certainly have the superior stable of relief arms and I’m confident they can put this one away. Take St. Louis -1.5 runs (8*). | |||||||
08-31-22 | Pirates v. Brewers -1.5 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 4 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee -0.5 runs first five innings over Pittsburgh at 2:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Brewers own a considerable starting pitching edge in this matchup. Pirates starter Zach Thompson has been awful this season, logging a 5.33 FIP and 1.54 WHIP while allowing 5.85 runs per nine innings. Meanwhile, Freddy Peralta has battled through injuries and as a result has only pitched 63 1/3 innings for the Brewers, but he’s fared well when he’s been out there, posting a 2.97 FIP and 1.07 WHIP while yielding only 3.69 runs per nine frames. The Pirates actually have the stronger bullpen, in terms of recent form anyway, so there’s no real edge for the Brew Crew in the later innings. We’ll back them in the first five innings only as a result. Take Milwaukee -0.5 runs first five innings (8*). | |||||||
08-30-22 | Phillies v. Diamondbacks UNDER 7.5 | 3-12 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair to open this series last night but I expect a much different story to unfold on Tuesday. Aaron Nola will take the ball for the visiting Phillies. He's quietly put together a tremendous 2022 campaign having recorded a 2.68 FIP and 0.94 WHIP while allowing just north of 3.1 runs per nine innings. With Zack Wheeler on the shelf, he'll need to step up for the Phillies as the anchor of their starting rotation down the stretch. Note that Nola checks in with a sparkling 2.13 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in 12 road outings this season. Zac Gallen will counter for Arizona. He's having a fantastic season in his own right, posting a 3.25 FIP and 0.97 WHIP while yielding just 2.92 runs per nine frames. Gallen did get rocked for four earned runs in just 1 2/3 innings against the Phillies earlier this season but that start came back in early June and it came on the road. Here at home, Gallen has recorded a 2.92 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in 12 starts this season. While neither bullpen has been lights out lately, I'm confident in both of tonight's starters' ability to work deep into this ball game and minimize the effect of the relief corps'. I also simply feel we'll see the pendulum swing back in favor of the pitching staffs after last night's offensive showcase. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
08-30-22 | Royals +1.5 v. White Sox | Top | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
A.L. Central Game of the Month. My selection is on Kansas City +0.5 runs first five innings over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. You could certainly make the argument that the Royals are the superior team in this matchup based on recent form. It's not an argument at all as to who the better starting pitcher is in this matchup, at least this season, as Brady Singer has been a pleasant surprise for Kansas City while Lucas Giolito has fallen flat on his face for the White Sox. Singer enters this start sporting a 3.55 FIP and 1.11 WHIP while allowing just north of 3.3 runs per nine innings this season. He just faced the White Sox on August 9th, giving up only one earned run over 7 1/3 innings of work. For his career, he has posted a 3.05 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in seven outings against Chicago. We'll back the Royals in the first five innings only here as their bullpen continues to struggle and is quite simply among the worst in the league in most categories. Lucas Giolito owns a 4.09 FIP and 1.50 WHIP while yielding north of 5.4 runs per nine innings for the White Sox this season. While he is coming off one of his best outings of the season, that's not saying much as he gave up one earned run on four hits while striking out only three and walking two in 6 1/3 innings against the Orioles last time out. In two previous starts against Kansas City this season, Giolito has allowed four earned runs in 10 innings. Take Kansas City +0.5 runs first five innings (10*). | |||||||
08-30-22 | Rockies v. Braves -1.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -159 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over Colorado at 7:20 pm et on Tuesday. With the Braves coming off consecutive losses and favorites getting roasted across the board last night, I can understand the hesitancy to back Atlanta here. I won't shy away, however, as the Braves have a considerable starting pitching edge that should contribute to a comfortable, bounce-back victory. Jose Urena will get the start for the visiting Rockies. To say that his 2022 campaign hasn't gone well would be an understatement. Urena checks in with a 5.65 FIP and 1.67 WHIP while allowing 6.9 runs per nine innings. The Braves actually got two looks at Urena two seasons ago, plating seven earned runs in only 11 innings. Atlanta will turn to its ace, Max Fried, on Tuesday. He's posted Cy Young Award-caliber numbers this season, a 2.55 FIP and 1.02 WHIP while giving up only 2.7 runs per nine innings. Note that he faced the Rockies once previously this year and went eight shutout innings, on the road no less. While the Braves bullpen has struggled a bit lately, a return home should help matters, noting that Atlanta's relief corps owns a collective 3.35 ERA and 1.18 WHIP here at Truist Park this season. Meanwhile, the Rockies 'pen checks in with a 5.41 ERA and 1.59 WHIP away from home. Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (8*). | |||||||
08-30-22 | Mariners v. Tigers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 9-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
A.L. Non-Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. I like the way this non-division matchup sets up as a low-scoring affair on Tuesday as the Mariners hand the ball to impressive rookie George Kirby against Matt Manning of the Tigers. Kirby checks in sporting a 3.19 FIP and 1.20 WHIP while allowing just shy of 3.7 runs per nine innings this season. He deserved a better fate in his most recent outing as he allowed just one earned run while striking out nine over seven innings in an eventual 3-1 loss to the Nationals. Note that Kirby owns a 3.19 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in eight previous road outings this season. Detroit will give Matt Manning another turn in the starting rotation. He's certainly deserving of the spot as he owns a 3.23 FIP and 1.11 WHIP in 38 innings of work this season. Manning has allowed only 2.37 runs per nine innings. Both bullpens have been reasonably effective lately with the Mariners relief corps sporting a collective 3.15 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over the last seven games and the Tigers 'pen posting a 3.51 ERA and 1.09 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
08-29-22 | Padres v. Giants UNDER 7.5 | 6-5 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between San Diego and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Monday. We'll back the 'under' but in the first five innings only in this N.L. West showdown on Monday night in San Francisco. Mike Clevinger will take the ball for the visiting Padres. He's been bitten by the home run ball at times but for the most part has held up well this season, posting a 4.32 FIP and 1.16 WHIP while yielding 3.7 runs per nine innings. Note that he's faced the Giants twice previously in his career, most recently in 2020 when he tossed seven shutout innings. San Francisco just isn't hitting right now, having plated three runs or fewer in five consecutive games. The Giants will turn to their ace Carlos Rodon for Monday's series-opener. He's quietly been one of the best starters in baseball this season, recording a 2.25 FIP and 1.03 WHIP while allowing only 2.87 runs per nine innings. The Padres have seen the left-hander twice already this season and have yet to figure him out, scoring just three earned runs in 15 innings against him. We'll look to avoid both bullpens in this one as those two units have been overworked lately and neither has been all that reliable in this setting (the Padres on the road and the Giants at home). Take the first five innings under (8*). | |||||||
08-29-22 | Phillies -174 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 7-13 | Loss | -174 | 15 h 13 m | Show |
National League Game of the Week. My selection is on Philadelphia over Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Monday. The Phillies had their six-game winning streak snapped in a 5-0 loss to the Pirates yesterday. Meanwhile, the D'Backs wrapped up a three-game sweep of the White Sox in Chicago. Here, I look for both teams fortunes to turn once again. Philadelphia will hand the ball to left-hander Ranger Suarez. He's actually pitched better on the road than at home this season, posting a 2.41 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 11 starts. He'll be out for revenge here after giving up two earned runs over 4 1/3 innings in a 13-1 rout at the hands of the D'Backs back in June. Note that Suarez owns a 3.68 FIP and 1.31 WHIP while allowing 3.9 runs per nine innings on the campaign. Fellow left-hander Madison Bumgarner will get the start for the D'Backs. He checks in with a 4.65 FIP and 1.43 WHIP while yielding just north of 5.2 runs per nine innings this season. Bumgarner has been one of the worst starters in baseball over the last month, allowing a whopping 24 earned runs across his last five starts, spanning just 28 2/3 innings. While the Phillies bullpen hasn't been lights out lately, it has been far better than that of the D'Backs. Arizona's relief corps entered yesterday's action sporting a collective 10.54 ERA and 1.92 WHIP over the last seven games. The D'Backs 'pen has converted just 12 saves while blowing nine at home this season. Meanwhile, the Phillies bullpen has made good on 19 saves while blowing only eight away from home. Take Philadelphia (10*). | |||||||
08-29-22 | Cardinals -1.5 v. Reds | 13-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis -0.5 runs first five innings over Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Monday. We settled for a push with the Cardinals in the first five innings against Atlanta last night. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well, this time laying the half-run as St. Louis travels to Cincinnati to open a series against the Reds. Miles Mikolas will be looking for revenge after struggling in his most recent start against Cincinnati. On the season, he's been terrific, posting a 3.72 FIP and 1.02 WHIP while allowing just shy of 3.7 runs per nine innings. My concern with the Cardinals is their bullpen as it entered last night's action sporting a collective ERA north of six and a WHIP approaching 1.50 over the last seven games. The Reds 'pen had recorded a 3.04 ERA and 1.31 WHIP over the same stretch. Cincinnati will give newly-signed Chase Anderson the start on Monday. He's struggled in the minors with Tigers and Rays affiliates, posting a 4.50 ERA and 1.33 WHIP while allowing 1.8 home runs per nine innings. Keep in mind, in 48 innings with the Phillies last season, Anderson posted a 5.86 FIP and 1.48 WHIP. He draws a tough matchup in the hot-hitting Cardinals on Monday. Take St. Louis -0.5 runs first five innings (8*). | |||||||
08-28-22 | Braves v. Cardinals -120 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis first five innings over Atlanta at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. These two teams have split the first two games in this series and I look for the Cardinals to have the early advantage in Sunday's finale. Jake Odorizzi will take the ball for the visiting Braves. He owns a 4.20 FIP and 1.27 WHIP while allowing a shade over 4.5 runs per nine innings this season. Odorizzi pitched one of his best games of the season last time out, allowing just one earned run over six innings but that came against the light-hitting Pirates. Across his previous two starts he had allowed seven earned runs in nine innings. Veteran Adam Wainwright will counter for the Cards. He's enjoying a terrific season having recorded a 3.62 FIP and 1.17 WHIP while yielding 3.17 runs per nine innings. He faced the Braves once last season, allowing only one earned run while striking out 11 in seven innings in a 9-1 victory. We'll back the Cards in the first five innings only in this one as the Braves should have the edge in terms of the bullpens, based on recent form (the St. Louis 'pen has posted a 6.35 ERA and 1.47 WHIP over the last seven games). Take St. Louis first five innings (8*). | |||||||
08-28-22 | Orioles v. Astros -1.5 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston -0.5 runs first five innings over Baltimore at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. The Astros have inexplicably dropped the first two games of this series but I look for them to answer back, at least early on in Sunday's series-finale. We'll back them in the first five innings only as they have a considerable starting pitching advantage but there's not much of a disparity between the two bullpens, so no real edge in the later innings. Austin Voth will get the start for Baltimore. He checks in having posted a 4.04 FIP and 1.44 WHIP while allowing 5.1 runs per nine innings. Note that he's lasted six innings just once in his 11 starts this season. Houston will counter with its ace, Justin Verlander. He sports a 2.77 FIP and 0.85 WHIP while allowing only 2.36 runs per nine innings. Verlander barely broke a sweat in his most recent outing, tossing six innings of no-hit ball against the Twins. Take Houston -0.5 runs first five innings (8*). | |||||||
08-28-22 | Giants +100 v. Twins | 3-8 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco over Minnesota at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. The Twins have taken the first two games of this series but I look for the Giants to salvage the finale on Sunday afternoon. Jakob Junis will take the ball for San Francisco. He's quietly having a fine campaign, posting a 3.75 FIP and 1.10 WHIP while allowing just shy of 3.6 runs per nine innings. Behind him is a Giants bullpen that has been terrific lately, logging a 1.80 ERA and 1.24 WHIP over the last seven games, entering last night's action. Aaron Sanchez will get another turn in the Twins rotation. He's struggled this season, recording a 4.71 FIP and 1.69 WHIP while yielding a whopping 7.59 runs per nine innings. The Twins bullpen hasn't been much better lately, sporting a collective 4.38 ERA and 1.46 WHIP over the last seven contests, also entering last night's action. Take San Francisco (9*). | |||||||
08-28-22 | Angels v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -114 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
A.L. Game of the Week. My selection is on Toronto -1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 1:35 pm et on Sunday. The Blue Jays have been blanked in the first two games of this series bringing an end to what was a terrific run over the previous week. Here, I do look for Toronto to salvage the series-finale, and do so in convincing fashion. Tucker Davidson will get another turn in the rotation for the Angels. Things haven't gone particularly well for him this season as he sports a 5.63 FIP and 1.75 WHIP while allowing 6.23 runs per nine innings. He's not really fooling any opposing hitters, having topped out at three strikeouts in his six previous starts this season. Ross Stripling will counter for Toronto. He's been their most reliable starter this season, entering Sunday's start with a 2.80 FIP and 1.04 WHIP while allowing only 3.22 runs per nine innings. The Jays have been bitten by the long ball in this series but Stripling has done an excellent job of keeping the ball in the park, yielding just 0.6 home runs per nine innings. The bullpens are virtually a wash based on recent form. I feel Toronto has enough of a starting pitching edge to warrant backing them on the run-line here. Take Toronto -1.5 runs (10*). | |||||||
08-27-22 | Nevada v. New Mexico State UNDER 53.5 | Top | 23-12 | Win | 100 | 272 h 52 m | Show |
CFB Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Nevada and New Mexico State at 2 pm et on Saturday August 27th. This total has been dropping since opening in the mid-to-high 50's but I believe we still have plenty of wiggle room at the current number. We actually cashed with the 'under' in New Mexico's season-opener last year and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Nevada isn't the same team that lit it up under the leadership of dynamic duo QB Carson Strong and WR Romeo Doubs in recent years. Both have moved on with Doubs currently turning heads at Green Bay Packers training camp. Projected starting QB this year, Nate Cox was charged with a DUI earlier this summer, leaving his availability in question leading up to the season-opener. It's no sure thing that he'll even lock up the starting QB job, regardless of his legal trouble, even after he received some playing time during the regular season and started the Wolf Pack's Bowl game last year. I would anticipate the Wolf Pack leaning heavily on their experienced 1-2 punch at running back, at least early in the campaign. Their defense should also be ahead of the offense in the early stages of the campaign, even though that unit loses plenty of talent from last year's team. It was a deep defense a year ago with plenty of experienced players ready to step in and take on bigger roles this year. DT Dom Peterson is an anchor up front while Michigan transfer at CB, Darion Warren-Green should lead the back-end. New Mexico State is coming off another lost season in 2021 and the potential is there for this to be a down year as well, before the Aggies finally find a home in Conference-USA next season. New Mexico State has another QB battle brewing in August but that's not necessarily a good thing as that only means that no one seems capable or ready to step up and take the reins. Expect NMSU to once again rely on pounding the football behind an offensive line that returns three starters from a year ago. New head coach Jerry Kill has a run-first mentality and with a questionable-at-best aerial attack, there's even more reason to keep the ball on the ground early this season. The Aggies return eight starters from last year's defense. Whether that's a good or bad thing is up for debate considering just how bad that unit was in 2021. I'm willing to be a little more optimistic than most as I like the pieces the Aggies have in place on the line and in the linebacking corps. The question is whether the secondary can hold up, but this is a favorable matchup against a rebuilding Nevada passing game that still isn't set on a starting QB, and whose best talent might be Arizona transfer WR B.J. Casteel who is learning a new offense and will have had precious few reps with whoever ends up the starter at QB. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
08-27-22 | Yankees v. A's OVER 8 | 2-3 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Oakland at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. We won with the first five innings 'under' in last night's game between these two teams but I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the full game 'over' on Saturday. Domingo German will take the ball for New York. He's coming off a solid outing against the Mets but his overall numbers this season aren't great as he's posted a 4.54 FIP and 1.27 WHIP while allowing 4.15 runs per nine innings. His counterpart on Saturday will be Adam Oller of the A's. He checks in sporting a 6.44 FIP and 1.69 WHIP while yielding a whopping 6.86 runs per nine innings this season. Behind Oller is an A's bullpen that has struggled, particularly here at home where it has recorded a collective 4.47 ERA and 1.44 WHIP while converting 12 saves and blowing eight. The Yankees bullpen is obviously elite but has yielded seven earned runs over the last seven games, so not invincible lately. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
08-27-22 | Charlotte v. Florida Atlantic OVER 56.5 | 13-43 | Loss | -110 | 269 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Charlotte and Florida Atlantic at 7 pm et on Saturday August 27th. This has the potential to be one of the few shootouts on the board in Week 0 action. Charlotte returns most of the key parts from last year's offense which showed flashes of brilliance over the course of the season. Of course, playing in C-USA where defense is optional, it helps to have some explosiveness on offense and the 49ers have just that with dual-threat returning QB Chris Reynolds and all three of his top receivers from last season in Victor Tucker, Grant DuBose and Elijah Spencer. The duo of Tucker and DuBose has the potential to be one of the best WR tandems in the conference. The 49ers also boast two excellent running backs with Calvin Camp and Shadrick Byrd. The potential is there for more big gains out of the backfield running behind an experienced offensive line that returns four starters from a year ago. Defense was a problem for Charlotte last year and likely will be again in 2022. The 49ers get just one of their top four tacklers back from a year ago. This is a group that doesn't look all that bad on paper but there are no true standouts that can really knock the likes of a Florida Atlantic offense off course. The Owls still have a bitter taste in their mouths after falling apart late last season, losing their final four games to miss out on Bowl eligibility. There's plenty of reason for optimism heading into 2022, however, as QB N'Kosi Perry comes back for a sixth season to lead an offense that's brimming with talent. While Perry can sling it and has plenty of returnees to work with at the wide receiver position, I believe the Owls ground attack could be its strength early on. Watch out for RB Johnny Ford who broke off better than 6.0 yards per rush last year and will run behind an offensive line that figures to be much-improved with four returning starters. I believe the FAU secondary could be an issue in the early going with standout CB Zyon Gilbert having moved on to the NFL. There will be plenty of green defensive backs left on an island for the Owls in this one and that doesn't bode well against the 49ers loaded WR corps that can blow the top off even the best of secondaries. Take the over (9*). | |||||||
08-27-22 | Dodgers -190 v. Marlins | 1-2 | Loss | -190 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Miami at 6:10 pm et on Saturday. It wasn't easy but the Dodgers ultimately hung 10 runs on the Marlins in an extra innings victory last night. I expect a more straightforward result on Saturday. Los Angeles will give Dustin May his second start since coming off the I.L. - his second straight outing against these same Marlins. May was terrific in his season debut, allowing just one hit while striking out nine and walking two in five shutout innings. Note that May was also sharp in six minor league rehab outings, posting a sparkling 1.71 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. He should have the advantage of having a fresh arm down the stretch, unlike his counterpart on Saturday, Sandy Alcantara of the Marlins. We've won plenty supporting Alcantara (or the 'under') in many of his starts this season but I won't hesitate to go the other way on Saturday. To say the Dodgers have had the Marlins ace's number would be an understatement. He's faced them four times in his career, allowing 23 earned runs in only 14 innings of work. That includes a 3 2/3 innings outing in which he was tagged for six earned runs last week in Los Angeles. The bullpen matchup favors the Dodgers as well as their relief corps has posted a 4.18 ERA and 1.01 WHIP over the last seven games while the Marlins 'pen has recorded a collective 5.68 ERA and 1.66 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Los Angeles (8*). | |||||||
08-26-22 | Saskatchewan v. BC UNDER 46.5 | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 25 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Saskatchewan and B.C. at 10:30 pm et on Friday. We've seen a considerable adjustment to the total in this rematch of last week's 28-10 Lions victory in Saskatchewan. Part of that has to do with the low-scoring nature of last week's game but more of it has to do with the injury to Lions MVP candidate QB Nathan Rourke. Rourke has done it all for the Lions this season, pacing an offense that has scored 28+ points in five of seven games. Michael O'Connor will take over at quarterback. While he's been in the CFL since 2019, he's only seen limited game action and is by no means the dual threat that Rourke has proven to be (O'Connor has a career seven rush yards on six attempts). He's completed 9-of-12 passes this season but has tossed an interception. The offense will without question be scaled back somewhat this week at least. The Riders meanwhile are dealing with a cluster of ankle injuries at the wide receiver position. That leaves a struggling Cody Fajardo with few reliable options - a recipe for disaster against a fierce Lions defense. Perhaps we'll see the Riders get back to running the football after all but abandoning that part of their offense in last week's blowout loss. That would of course play into our hands by helping to keep the clock moving. Note that the 'under' is 49-25 in the Riders last 74 games when listed as a road underdog of between 3.5 and 7.0 points, as is the case here. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
08-26-22 | Guardians -110 v. Mariners | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
MLB Non-Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Cleveland over Seattle at 10:10 pm et on Friday. I wanted a piece of the Guardians yesterday in the opener of this series but that was before they opened as a favorite. I ultimately decided to lay off (thankfully) but won't do the same on Friday as they send their ace to the hill in Shane Bieber against Logan Gilbert of the Mariners. Bieber has quietly posted a 2.83 FIP and 1.10 WHIP while giving up 3.35 runs per nine innings this season. He didn’t fare particularly well in a pair of starts against the Mariners last year but has yet to face them here in 2022. Note that he has recorded a sparkling 1.33 ERA and 1.03 WHIP over his last three outings. Logan Gilbert checks in with a 7.20 ERA and 1.73 WHIP over his last three starts. He's now logged a career-high 143 1/3 innings this season which is more than he pitched in AAA and the majors combined during his rookie campaign last year. On the season, Gilbert has posted a 3.78 FIP and 1.24 WHIP, allowing 0.7 more hits, 0.4 more home runs and 0.6 more walks per nine innings compared to Bieber. While both bullpens have been terrific lately, the Guardians relief corps has been a little better. In fact, Cleveland's 'pen hasn't allowed a single earned run while recording a collective 0.76 WHIP over the last seven games. It has converted 21 saves whlie blowing only 10 on the road this season. Take Cleveland (10*). | |||||||
08-26-22 | Yankees v. A's UNDER 7 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between New York and Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Friday. After a slugfest in last night’s series-opener, I like the way this starting pitching matchup sets up to produce a low-scoring first five innings on Friday night in Oakland. Gerrit Cole will get the nod for the visiting Yankees. He’s having another terrific season, posting a 3.20 FIP and 1.03 WHIP while allowing just under 3.5 runs per nine innings. Cole last faced the A’s right here in Oakland last season, tossing six shutout innings. Former Yankee (he was a key piece coming over to the A’s in the Frankie Montas trade) JP Sears will start for Oakland. He’s done nothing but impress since joining Oakland and on the season owns a 3.39 FIP and 0.96 WHIP while holding the opposition to just 1.93 runs per nine innings (small sample size of 37 1/3 innings, I know). By playing the first five innings only we’ll look to avoid two bullpens that entered this series in only average recent form, relatively speaking. Take the first five innings under (8*). | |||||||
08-26-22 | Hamilton +2.5 v. Toronto | Top | 20-37 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 42 m | Show |
East Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Hamilton plus the points over Toronto at 7:30 pm et on Friday. These two teams have split a pair of meetings this season with both successfully defending their home field. Here, I look for a reversal of sorts as the Ti-Cats look to take a step toward taking control of the lowly East Division with a key road victory. Hamilton's offense has shown flashes of brilliance to be sure. The Tiger-Cats ground attack has led the way at times but last week they threw for over 300 yards for the second time in three games. All indications are that QB Dane Evans will be good to go for this one and I expect him to step in and perform well against an Argos defense that has been inconsistent at best. Note that teams that have chosen to run on the Argos have been successful, including the Ti-Cats, who gained 149 yards on just 21 attempts against them just two games back. Offensively, it seems as if Toronto has gone off a cliff. Yes, the Argos scored 34 points in a win over these same Ti-Cats earlier this month but that had more to do with Hamilton's inability to keep its offense on the field than anything else. Note that the Argos have gained fewer than 70 yards rushing in four straight games and now face a Ti-Cats squad that hasn't yielded more than 90 yards rushing since way back in Week 1. I get the feeling that Hamilton's defense will make life miserable on Argos QB McLeod Bethel-Thompson after getting torched for 382 yards through the air against Montreal last week. Hamilton has still held all seven opponents to 25 or fewer pass completions this season. Toronto needed a whopping 43 pass attempts to get to just 276 passing yards against Calgary last week. Here, we'll note that the Ti-Cats are a perfect 6-0 ATS when coming off two losses in their last three games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 11.1 points on average in that situation. Take Hamilton (10*). | |||||||
08-26-22 | Rockies v. Mets -1.5 | 6-7 | Loss | -145 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York -1.5 runs over Colorado at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The Mets will once again have a significant edge on the mound on Friday as they send Chris Bassitt against Chad Kuhl, who makes his return from the I.L. for the Rockies. Bassitt enters with a 3.53 FIP and 1.13 WHIP while holding opponents to just shy of 3.4 runs per nine innings. Over his last four starts, Bassitt has yielded only two earned runs in 26 innings of work. Behind Bassitt is a Mets bullpen that came into this series sporting a 2.46 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over the last seven games. Kuhl gave up four walks and three hits over five innings (while striking out six) in a minor league rehab stint. In the bigs this season he has recorded a 5.22 FIP and 1.52 WHIP while giving up 5.5 runs per nine innings. The Rockies bullpen continues to struggle, logging a 6.30 ERA and 1.43 WHIP over the last seven contests (entering this series). Take New York -1.5 runs (8*). | |||||||
08-26-22 | Pirates v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
N.L. Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Friday. I expect plenty of offense in this Pennsylvania showdown on Friday as the Pirates send Bryse Wilson to the mound against Bailey Falter of the Phillies. Wilson hasn’t been good this season. That may be oversimplifying things but facts are facts. Wilson checks in with a 5.24 FIP And 1.44 WHIP while allowing a whopping 6.55 runs per nine innings. He’s actually coming off one of his best starts of the season, allowing three earned runs over seven innings against the Reds. I’m not counting on a repeat performance against a tougher opponent here. Falter has endured a rough rookie campaign, posting a 5.50 FIP and 1.29 WHIP, yielding 5.0 runs per nine innings. Like Wilson, Falter is also coming off one of his best outings of the season, holding the Mets to one earned run over six innings. He still owns a 4.74 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in four home starts. The bullpens might be an even bigger issue in this matchup. Pittsburgh’s relief corps has recorded a collective 7.94 ERA and 1.68 WHIP over the last seven games. The Phillies ‘pen entered last night’s action sporting a collective 5.70 ERA and 1.69 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
08-25-22 | Rockies v. Mets -1.5 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York -1.5 runs over Colorado at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. This is a mismatch from all angles as the Mets send Jacob deGrom to the hill against Ryan Feltner of the Rockies. deGrom has had electric stuff since returning to the Mets starting rotation, posting a 0.63 FIP and 0.51 WHIP in four starts, spanning 23 1/3 innings of work. He’s giving up just north of 2.3 runs per nine innings. Behind deGrom is a Mets bullpen that has been in fine form recently, recording a collective 2.46 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over the last seven games. Feltner has had plenty of ups and downs for the Rockies this season, with more downs than ups. He sports a 4.79 FIP and 1.39 WHIP while yielding just shy of 6.2 runs per nine frames. The Rockies bullpen is among the worst in the league seemingly every year and 2022 has been no different. The Colorado relief corps checks in with a collective 5.92 ERA and 1.52 WHIP over the last seven contests, entering yesterday’s action. Take New York -1.5 runs (8*). | |||||||
08-25-22 | Blue Jays -162 v. Red Sox | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto over Boston at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. While this will be the Red Sox fifth look at Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman this season, they’ve yet to have much success and I’m not convinced anything will change on Thursday. Gausman owns a sparkling 2.05 FIP and a 1.24 WHIP while giving up less than 3.5 runs per nine innings this season. Behind him is a Blue Jays bullpen that entered last night’s action sporting a collective 2.66 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over the last seven games. Kutter Crawford will counter for Boston. He’s had a rough rookie campaign so far, posting a 4.35 FIP and 1.32 WHIP while allowing just shy of 5.3 runs per nine innings. Note that the Jays will be seeing Crawford for the second time after scoring three earned runs in six innings against him in a 4-1 victory in July. The Red Sox bullpen behind Crawford continues to struggle. It has recorded a collective 7.11 ERA and 1.62 WHIP over the last seven games (also entering last night’s action). Take Toronto (8*) | |||||||
08-25-22 | Reds v. Phillies -1.5 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia -0.5 runs first five innings over Cincinnati at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. I’ll gladly back the Phillies laying the half-run in the first five innings only on Thursday as they send Aaron Nola to the mound against Justin Dunn of the Reds. Dunn has yet to figure it out at the big league level, recording an 8.52 FIP and 1.73 WHIP in limited action (13 1/3 innings) with the Reds this season. This is his fourth big league season after spending three years with the Mariners and his career FIP and WHIP are 5.94 and 1.40, respectively. It’s a different story for Phillies starter Aaron Nola, who is often overshadowed by Zack Wheeler at the top of the rotation. Nola has posted a 2.76 FIP and 0.96 WHIP this season, yielding just 3.31 runs per nine innings. We’ll avoid backing the Phillies in the full game as their bullpen continues to struggle, entering yesterday’s action sporting a collective 5.64 ERA and 1.70 WHIP over the last seven games. Take Philadelphia -0.5 runs first five innings (8*). | |||||||
08-24-22 | Diamondbacks v. Royals UNDER 7.5 | 3-5 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Arizona and Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the ‘over’ thanks to a late scoring flurry last night but I like the chances of seeing a low-scoring start to Wednesday’s contest as we have two of the more underrated starters in baseball - this season at least - going head-to-head. Zac Gallen will get the start for Arizona. He has worked 21 1/3 scoreless innings over his last there starts, lowering his FIP to 3.26 and his WHIP to 0.97. Yielding just north of 3.0 runs per nine innings, he’s a fringe N.L. Cy Young Award candidate. The issue with the D’Backs is their bullpen, which owns an ERA north of eight and a WHIP approaching two over the last seven games (entering last night’s action). Speaking of struggling bullpens, the Royals relief corps recorded a collective 4.56 ERA and 1.56 WHIP over that same stretch. You can understand why I’m looking to avoid those two ‘pens and play the first five innings ‘under’ only in this one. Brady Singer takes the ball for Kansas City. He owns a 3.56 FIP and 1.15 WHIP while giving up 3.44 runs per nine innings this season. The Royals last three opponents with Singer on the mound have combined to score just four runs. He’ll have the advantage of facing the D’Backs for the first time in his career on Wednesday. Take the first five innings under (8*). | |||||||
08-24-22 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Toronto and Boston at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a high-scoring affair in the opener of this series last night and I anticipate seeing more of the same on Wednesday. The Blue Jays beat up on Red Sox rookie starter Josh Winckowski last night and should be pleased to face another rookie hurler on Wednesday in Brayan Bello. Bello struggled mightily in three starts, including one against Toronto, before going on the shelf due to injury. In 17 big league innings pitched this season he's logged a 3.65 FIP and an ugly 2.29 WHIP, allowing a ridiculous 14.8 hits and 5.8 walks per nine innings (small sample size, I know). His only saving grace is that he hasn't allowed a home run. That should change tonight. Jose Berrios will take the ball for the visiting Blue Jays. He's not exactly having a banner year - far from it, in fact. He checks in with a 4.88 FIP and 1.37 WHIP while allowing 5.46 runs per nine innings. The Red Sox will have the advantage of seeing him for the third time this season. The Blue Jays bullpen has held up well lately but certainly hasn't been invincible on the road where it has converted 12 saves but blown nine. Meanwhile, the Red Sox relief corps has posted a 7.11 ERA and 1.62 WHIP over the last seven games. Take the over (9*). | |||||||
08-24-22 | White Sox v. Orioles OVER 8 | Top | 5-3 | Push | 0 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
A.L. Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Baltimore at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. I’m expecting a relatively high-scoring affair as the White Sox send Lucas Giolito to the hill against Spenser Watkins of the Orioles on Wednesday. Giolito is having a tough campaign all around, posting a 4.13 FIP and 1.53 WHIP while allowing 5.65 runs per nine innings. Save for his strikeout average of 10.2 per nine innings, Giolito has been awful across the board, allowing 10.4 hits, 1.5 home runs and 3.4 walks per nine innings. I expect the O’s to take advantage on Wednesday. Watkins has only been marginally better than Giolito this season, recording a 4.34 FIP and 1.33 WHIP while giving up 4.5 runs per nine frames. The White Sox couldn’t muster an earned run against him over five innings in their lone previous look at him this season back on June 25th but I’m confident they can get to him here. Entering last night’s action, the White Sox bullpen had posted a collective 7.30 ERA and 1.74 WHIP over the last seven games while the O’s relief corps checked in with a 4.56 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
08-24-22 | Nationals v. Mariners -1.5 | 3-1 | Loss | -135 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle -0.5 runs first five innings over Washington at 4:10 pm et on Wednesday. The early stages of this game should be no contest based on the Mariners starting pitching advantage with impressive rookie George Kirby taking the ball against veteran Anibal Sanchez of the Nationals. Kirby has posted a 3.38 FIP and 1.20 WHIP while allowing just shy of 3.9 runs per nine innings for the Mariners this season. The reason we’ll back the Mariners in the first five innings only here is their considerable starting pitching advantage, whereas the Nats bullpen has been terrific lately and could hold its own late. Sanchez is having a brutal campaign, recording a 7.17 FIP and 1.46 WHIP while yielding just under 6.7 runs per nine innings. He's allowing a whopping 2.8 home runs per nine innings. Take Seattle -0.5 runs first five innings (8*). | |||||||
08-24-22 | Rangers -130 v. Rockies | 16-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas over Colorado at 3:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Rangers have both the starting pitching and bullpen edge in this game and we’ll back them as a short favourite on Wednesday afternoon at Coors Field. Martin Perez has ‘turned back the clock’ for Texas this season - in fact, he’s having a career year. Perez checks in with a 3.39 FIP and 1.20 WHIP while giving up only 3.22 runs per nine innings. He’ll be looking for revenge here after giving up three earned runs on seven hits over four innings in a 4-1 home loss to the Rockies back in April. The Rangers bullpen has been quietly effective lately, sporting a 2.92 ERA and 0.81 WHIP over the last seven games (entering last night’s action). Journeyman right-hander Jose Urena gets another turn in the rotation for the Rockies. He’s had a tough time following a solid start to his Colorado stint, posting a 5.57 FIP and 1.50 WHIP while giving up 5.65 runs per nine innings. Behind Urena is a Rockies bullpen that checks in with a collective 5.88 ERA and 1.50 WHIP over the last seven contests (also entering last night’s action). Take Texas (8*). | |||||||
08-24-22 | Giants v. Tigers +1.5 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit +0.5 runs first five innings over San Francisco at 1:10 pm et on Wednesday. This starting pitching matchup is closer to even than most bettors likely believe as the Giants hand the ball to Logan Webb against Matt Manning of the Tigers. With Detroit’s bullpen struggling, we’ll back it in the first five innings only here. Webb owns a 3.28 FIP and 1.18 WHIP while allowing 3.43 runs per nine innings this season. His counterpart, Matt Manning, checks in with a 3.74 FIP and 1.16 WHIP while giving up just 2.81 runs per nine innings, albeit with a smaller sample size. I will point out that Manning has posted a sub-3.00 ERA at the AAA level this season. Note that the Giants average just 4.3 runs per game against right-handed starting pitching this season (entering last night’s action) compared to their season scoring average of 4.5 rpg. Take Detroit +0.5 runs first five innings (8*). | |||||||
08-23-22 | Brewers v. Dodgers UNDER 7 | 1-10 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a low-scoring affair to open this series last night and I expect more of the same on Tuesday. Corbin Burnes will take the ball for the Brewers. He didn't have his best stuff against the Dodgers last week but Milwaukee still managed to pull out a 5-3 victory. I expect a better performance from Burnes here, noting that he has posted a 3.01 FIP and 0.94 WHIP this season, yielding just 2.72 runs per nine innings. He's been at his best on the road, where he sports a 1.94 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in 11 starts. Tony Gonsolin will counter for Los Angeles. He silenced the Brewers bats over seven innings last week in Milwaukee. Gonsolin owns a 1.53 ERA and 0.78 WHIP in 10 home starts this season. Overall, he has recorded a 3.34 FIP and 0.86 WHIP, giving up just under 2.2 runs per nine innings. Both bullpens are in excellent current form with the Brewers relief corps entering this series having posted a collective 2.31 ERA and 0.88 WHIP over the last seven games and the Dodgers 'pen recording a 1.12 ERA and 0.71 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
08-23-22 | Blue Jays -135 v. Red Sox | Top | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 48 m | Show |
MLB Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Toronto over Boston at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Blue Jays have certainly had the Red Sox number this season, taking five of six previous meetings. I look for their series dominance to continue on Tuesday. Ross Stripling has been the unsung hero of the Blue Jays starting rotation this season, posting a 2.87 FIP and 1.03 WHIP while holding the opposition to just 3.34 runs per nine innings. He hasn't necessarily had his best stuff in three previous outings against Boston this season, allowing five earned runs in 14 innings of work, but the Jays still won two of those three games including an 8-4 victory here at Fenway Park. Rookie Josh Winckowski will counter for Boston. He remains with the big club out of necessity only as he continues to struggle. Winckowski has recorded a 5.21 FIP and 1.50 WHIP while giving up 5.34 runs per nine innings. The bullpen matchup favors the Blue Jays here as well as their relief corps checks in sporting a collective 1.96 ERA and 0.91 WHIP over the last seven games. Meanwhile, the Red Sox 'pen owns a 7.29 ERA and 1.48 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Toronto (10*). | |||||||
08-23-22 | Diamondbacks v. Royals OVER 8.5 | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. While this is a matchup of two teams going nowhere this season, I do expect to see plenty of offensive fireworks. Zach Davies will take the ball for the visiting D'Backs. He owns a 4.58 FIP and 1.56 WHIP while yielding 4.45 runs per nine innings. He's already faced the Royals once this season, giving up four earned runs and lasting only 3 2/3 innings back in May. The bigger problem for Arizona right now is its fading bullpen. The D'Backs 'pen checks in with an 8.55 ERA and 1.90 WHIP over the last seven games. It has converted just 15 saves while blowing nine on the road this season. Jon Heasley will counter for the Royals. He was tagged for three earned runs over five innings in an outing against the D'Backs in May. For the season, Heasley owns an ugly 5.95 FIP and 1.56 WHIP while giving up 6.2 runs per nine innings. The Royals bullpen entered yesterday's action having posted a collective 4.57 ERA and 1.52 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take the over (9*). | |||||||
08-23-22 | Twins v. Astros -1.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston -0.5 runs first five innings over Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Twins inexplicably dropped three games in a row against the Rangers over the last three days and now face the unenviable task of heading to Houston to face Justin Verlander and the Astros on Tuesday. Aaron Sanchez will get the start for the visiting Twins. He was effective in his lone outing since joining Minnesota, that coming back on August 1st against the light-hitting Tigers. Note that in a minor league stint with the Twins AAA affiliate, St. Paul, Sanchez recorded an unimpressive 3.80 ERA and 1.23 WHIP, striking out just over 6.0 batters per nine innings. In the majors this year, Sanchez owns a 4.93 FIP and 1.68 WHIP while allowing a whopping 7.93 runs per nine innings. Verlander hasn't had his best stuff over his last two outings but he certainly wasn't awful, yielding six earned runs in 13 innings. Note that he'll be starting on six days' rest on Tuesday which should be beneficial considering he's logged 143 innings this season. Verlander owns a 2.88 FIP and 0.88 WHIP on the season, allowing just 2.45 runs per nine innings. We'll lay the half-run with the Astros in the first five innings only here as their bullpen has been awful lately, posting a collective 7.16 ERA and 2.14 WHIP over the last seven games. In stark contrast, the Twins 'pen owns a 1.95 ERA and 1.26 WHIP over that stretch. Take Houston -0.5 runs first five innings (8*). | |||||||
08-23-22 | Reds v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
N.L. Non-Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Philadelphia -0.5 runs first five innings over Cincinnati at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. We actually missed with the Phillies in this same starting pitching matchup last week in Cincinnati but I won't hesitate to go back to the well again here, albeit backing Philadelphia laying a half-run in the first five innings only this time around. Nick Lodolo will look to build off of his seven shutout innings he tossed against the Phillies last time out. That start came at home. The road hasn't been so kind to the rookie left-hander as he checks in with an 8.48 ERA and 2.06 WHIP in three outings away from home this season. On the campaign, Lodolo owns a pedestrian 4.12 FIP and 1.57 WHIP while giving up 4.45 runs per nine innings. Ranger Suarez is having another fine season for the Phillies. He sports a 3.68 FIP and 1.29 WHIP while allowing 3.86 runs per nine innings. Note that the Reds average 4.1 runs per game against left-handed starting pitching this season (compared to their season scoring average of 4.3 rpg) and just 3.6 runs per game on the road, entering last night's action. We'll play the first five innings only as the Phillies bullpen has admittedly struggled lately, entering this series with a 5.72 ERA and 1.64 WHIP over the last seven games. Contrast that with the Reds 'pen which posted a collective 2.49 ERA and 1.26 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Philadelphia -0.5 runs first five innings (10*). | |||||||
08-23-22 | Braves -1.5 v. Pirates | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Braves as they send their ace Max Fried to the hill against JT Brubaker of the Pirates. Fried is having a Cy Young Award-caliber season having posted a 2.49 FIP and 1.05 WHIP while allowing just 2.79 runs per nine innings. He can get a leg up on another leading Cy Young candidate in Max Scherzer after the Mets right-hander suffered a loss against the Yankees last night. Interestingly, Fried has opposed Brubaker twice before in his career, including earlier this season, with the Braves winning both of those games by a combined 10-2 margin. Brubaker checks in with a 3.67 FIP and 1.43 WHIP on the campaign. He has allowed just shy of 4.9 runs per nine innings. Note that Brubaker gives up 1.5 more hits, 0.5 more home runs and 1.9 more walks per nine innings compared to Fried this season. The bullpens are 'no contest' based on recent form as the Atlanta 'pen has posted a collective 2.70 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over the last seven games while the Pittsburgh relief corps has recorded a 6.59 ERA and 1.54 WHIP over the same stretch, entering last night's action. Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (8*). | |||||||
08-23-22 | White Sox -139 v. Orioles | 3-5 | Loss | -139 | 13 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago first five innings over Baltimore at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. White Sox starter Dylan Cease didn't have his best stuff last time out but his team bailed him out in an eventual 4-3 win over the Astros. It was a different story for Orioles starter Austin Voth who tossed six shutout innings in Toronto before the Baltimore bullpen coughed it up in a 6-1 defeat. Here, we'll back Cease in the first five innings only as the White Sox bullpen continues to struggle. Note that Cease owns a stellar 2.87 FIP and 1.17 WHIP this season, yielding just 2.76 runs per nine innings. Voth on the other hand has posted a 3.86 FIP and 1.41 WHIP while giving up just shy of 5.3 runs per nine innings. While Cease does allow 1.3 more walks per nine innings compared to Voth, he's made up for it by yielding 3.5 fewer hits and striking out 3.6 more batters per nine frames. Take Chicago first five innings (8*). | |||||||
08-22-22 | Marlins -134 v. A's | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 14 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami first five innings over Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Monday. PLEASE NOTE: Edward Cabrera will start in place of Pablo Lopez for the Marlins. We'll stick with the play as this is more of a fade of Oller, albeit at a slightly lower rating. The Marlins just got swept in a three-game series against the Dodgers in Los Angeles and have now dropped four games in a row overall. I do look for them to bounce back, at least early on, in Monday's game in Oakland. Miami will hand the ball to Pablo Lopez. He checks in sporting a 3.77 FIP and 1.17 WHIP while yielding 4.03 runs per nine innings. He'll be facing an A's club that while coming off a series win over the Mariners, still averages just 3.5 runs per game at home this season. By playing the first five innings only we'll look to avoid a Marlins bullpen that has recorded a collective 4.97 ERA and 2.06 WHIP over the last seven games. Oakland will give Adam Oller another turn in the rotation. He pitched exceptionally well last time out against Texas but the rest of his campaign hasn't gone nearly as smoothly. Oller owns a 6.36 FIP and 1.69 WHIP in 54 1/3 innings of work, yielding north of 7.1 runs per nine innings. Take Miami first five innings (8*). | |||||||
08-22-22 | Mets -156 v. Yankees | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -156 | 21 h 15 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on the Mets first five innings over the Yankees at 7:05 pm et on Monday. We'll back the Mets in the first five innings only on Monday as while they hold a significant starting pitching advantage, I'm not interested in involving their struggling bullpen, which entered yesterday's action sporting a collective 6.26 ERA and 1.46 WHIP over the last seven games. Max Scherzer will get the start for the visiting Mets on Monday. He's having another terrific campaign, posting a 2.42 FIP and 0.93 WHIP while yielding just 2.31 runs per nine innings. Note that he has allowed 3.1 fewer hits, 0.6 fewer home runs and 1.2 fewer home runs per nine innings in comparison with his counterpart in this one, Domingo German of the Yankees. German owns a 4.50 FIP and 1.41 WHIP this season, giving up an average of 4.45 runs per nine innings. Note that the Mets have already seen him once, scoring two earned runs on five hits including one home run over 4 2/3 innings back on July 27th. Note that the Mets entered yesterday's action having posted a 54-26 record while averaging 5.0 runs per game (compared to their 4.8 rpg season scoring average) against right-handed starting pitching this season. Take the Mets first five innings (10*). | |||||||
08-21-22 | Giants -125 v. Rockies | 9-8 | Win | 100 | 17 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco over Colorado at 3:10 pm et on Sunday. We'll back the Giants on Sunday as they send Jakob Junis to the mound against Kyle Freeland of the Rockies. Junis is having a fine, albeit injury-plagued, season having posted a 3.61 FIP and 1.14 WHIP while holding opponents to 3.53 runs per nine innings. The Giants bullpen has turned things around after a rough stretch, posting a collective 2.29 ERA and 1.27 WHIP over the last seven games, entering last night's action. Colorado will hand the ball to Kyle Freeland, who has had a tough season, recording a 4.39 FIP and 1.41 WHIP while yielding just shy of 5.2 runs per nine innings. Behind Freeland is a Rockies bullpen that has recorded a collective 5.79 ERA and 1.54 WHIP over the last seven contests, also entering last night's action. Take San Francisco (8*). | |||||||
08-21-22 | Reds v. Pirates OVER 8.5 | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Pittsburgh at 1:35 pm et on Sunday. This pitching matchup sets up perfectly as a high-scoring affair on Sunday at PNC Park. Mike Minor will take the ball for the visiting Reds. He's been awful this year, posting a 6.41 FIP and 1.61 WHIP while giving up a whopping 6.85 runs per nine innings. His counterpart, Zach Thompson of the Pirates, hasn't been much better, recording a 5.34 FIP and 1.54 WHIP while giving up right around 6.0 runs per nine frames. Neither bullpen has had much success this season, with the Reds recording a collective 5.12 ERA and 1.46 WHIP on the road, entering yesterday's action, and the Pirates sporting a 4.38 ERA and 1.37 WHIP at home. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
08-20-22 | Astros v. Braves UNDER 7.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Houston and Atlanta at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. We'll back the 'under' in the first five innings only in Atlanta on Saturday as we have a terrific starting pitching matchup between Cristian Javier of the Astros and Spencer Strider of the Braves. Javier has posted a 3.39 FIP and 1.03 WHIP while allowing less than 3.0 runs per nine innings this season. The issue for the Astros has been their bullpen, which has struggled to the tune of a 6.61 ERA and 2.14 WHIP over the last seven games but we'll aim to avoid that relief corps with this first five innings play. Rookie Spencer Strider is having a fantastic campaign having recorded a 1.98 FIP and 1.04 WHIP while giving up 3.23 runs per nine innings. He'll have the advantage of facing the Astros for the first time in his career on Saturday (as will Javier against the Braves). Take the first five innings under (8*). | |||||||
08-20-22 | Royals v. Rays -1.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 115 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
A.L. Non-Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Tampa Bay -1.5 runs over Kansas City at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Rays off last night's tough extra innings loss. Kris Bubic will take the ball for Kansas City. He checks in sporting a 4.62 FIP and 1.60 WHIP while allowing just shy of 5.8 runs per nine innings. The Rays will be seeing the left-hander for the second time this season and I expect them to improve on the numbers they posted back in late July (two earned runs in seven innings). The Kansas City bullpen has posted a 5.64 ERA and 1.70 WHIP over the last seven contests. Drew Rasmussen will counter for Tampa Bay. We won with the Rays in his most recent start and I won't hesitate to go back to the well here. Rasmussen owns a 3.36 FIP and 1.08 WHIP this season, yielding just 3.25 runs per nine innings. The Rays bullpen, despite coughing up last night's game in extras, has posted a solid 2.25 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over the last seven games. Take Tampa Bay -1.5 runs (10*). | |||||||
08-20-22 | Hamilton v. Montreal OVER 48.5 | Top | 28-29 | Win | 100 | 7 h 0 m | Show |
East Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Hamilton and Montreal at 4 pm et on Saturday. I see this as another breakout spot for the Ti-Cats offense after scoring 34 points in a win over Toronto last week. The Alouettes are getting absolutely shredded by opposing ground attacks, allowing 138, 102, 152 and 118 rushing yards over their last four games. The Ti-Cats are more than capable of taking advantage as they've gained 100+ yards on the ground in three of their last four contests. While the Als are coming off a low-scoring overtime victory in Winnipeg last week, they generally don't shy away from high-scoring shootouts. Note that they've aired it out 31 or more times in three of their last four games while the Ti-Cats have yielded opponents' 37+ pass attempts in two of their last three games. Despite the low-scoring result last week, Montreal has seen four of its last six games total 55+ points. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
08-20-22 | Mets v. Phillies -157 | 8-2 | Loss | -157 | 5 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over New York at 1:05 pm et on Saturday. The Mets took the opener of this series in blowout fashion last night but I look for the Phillies to answer right back in the opener of Saturday's double-header. Trevor Williams will return to the mound for the first time in over a month for the Mets. He owns a 4.01 FIP and 1.16 WHIP while allowing just shy of 3.3 runs per nine innings this season. Note that the Mets bullpen has posted a 5.88 ERA and 1.58 WHIP over the last seven games. Philadelphia will hand the ball to its ace Zack Wheeler. He was rocked for six earned runs by these same Mets in his most recent outing but I look for him to respond with a much better start here. Wheeler checks in with a 2.97 FIP and 1.06 WHIP while yielding 3.19 runs per nine innings this season. The Phillies bullpen has recorded a collective 2.30 ERA and 1.34 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take Philadelphia (8*). | |||||||
08-19-22 | Mariners v. A's +1.5 | 10-2 | Loss | -150 | 24 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oakland +1.5 runs over Seattle at 9:40 pm et on Friday. We can make the case that the bullpens are a wash based on recent form and with that in mind, I’m comfortable backing the A’s with an insurance run as they open this divisional showdown against the Mariners on Friday. Marco Gonzales will get the nod for Seattle. He owns a 5.10 FIP and 1.41 WHIP while giving up just shy of 4.9 runs per nine innings this season. The A’s will be seeing him for the fourth time this season having racked up nine earned runs in 18 1/3 innings so far. Cole Irvin gets the start for the A’s. He’s turned it around lately, lowering his FIP to 3.91 and WHIP to 1.05 while yielding only 3.41 runs per nine innings. Interestingly, Irvin will be making his first start against the Mariners this season. He’s actually struggled in his career against Seattle but I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt here, noting that he has posted a 1.66 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in 11 home starts this season. Take Oakland +1.5 runs (8*). | |||||||
08-19-22 | Cardinals -168 v. Diamondbacks | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 24 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis first five innings over Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Friday. I really like the way the starting pitching matchup sets up for the visiting Cardinals in this series-opener on Friday in Arizona. Miles Mikolas is having another solid campaign for the Cards, posting a 3.71 FIP and 1.06 WHIP while giving up only 3.68 runs per nine innings. The issue with St. Louis is its bullpen which has recorded a collective 6.38 ERA and 1.36 WHIP over the last seven games, entering yesterday’s action. We’ll look to avoid that relief corps by playing the first five innings only. Rookie left-hander Tommy Henry will take the ball for Arizona. He’s now logged 17 1/3 innings at the big league level this season, recording a 5.13 FIP and 1.21 WHIP while yielding 4.15 runs per nine innings. The Cards are 17-9 against left-handed starting pitching this season, averaging 4.9 runs per game (compared to their season scoring average of 4.7 rpg). Take St. Louis first five innings (8*). | |||||||
08-19-22 | Nationals v. Padres -1.5 | 6-3 | Loss | -150 | 14 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego -0.5 runs first five innings over Washington at 9:40 pm et on Friday. The Padres dropped the opener of this series 3-1 last night, turning in a lifeless performance in their first game back home off a road trip. We missed with San Diego on the run-line in that game but will come right back with it on Friday, laying the half-run in the first five innings only. San Diego's bullpen has been disappointing as a whole this season and after last night's game, the case can be made for the Nationals 'pen inexplicably being in better current form. Here, we'll get behind Padres starter Blake Snell who has turned things around, lowering his FIP to 2.85 and his WHIP to 1.27. Walks are always going to be an issue but Snell has done a good job of minimizing the damage by allowing just 0.7 home runs and striking out 12.0 batters per nine innings. The Nats have had a tough time against left-handed starting pitching this season, going 11-29 and averaging only 3.6 runs per game, compared to their season scoring average of 3.8 runs per contest. Paolo Espino will counter for Washington. Unlike Snell, he's had a tough time keeping the ball in the park, allowing 1.7 home runs per nine innings. He sports a 4.80 FIP and 1.29 WHIP on the campaign. Also note that he gives up 2.7 more hits per nine innings compared to Snell. Take San Diego -0.5 runs first five innings (8*). | |||||||
08-19-22 | Astros v. Braves -125 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 21 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta over Houston at 7:20 pm et on Friday. Astros starter Lance McCullers Jr. looked good in his return from injury last time out, tossing six innings of two-hit, shutout ball. However, he had struggled at the minor league level working his way back and I think he’ll be in tough against the Braves on Friday. Note that the Houston bullpen has been awful lately, recording a collective 6.91 ERA and 2.16 WHIP over the last seven games, entering yesterday’s action. On the flip side, the Braves bullpen entered last night’s series-finale against the Mets sporting a collective 1.85 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over the last seven contests (and proceeded to toss another two scoreless frames). Atlanta will start Kyle Wright on Friday. He’s been one of the most underrated starting pitchers in baseball this season as far as I’m concerned. Wright owns a 3.67 FIP and 1.17 WHIP while holding the opposition to 3.34 runs per nine innings. He’ll be facing the Astros for the first time in his career, as will be the case with McCullers Jr. against the Braves. Take Atlanta (8*). | |||||||
08-19-22 | Royals v. Rays -195 | 3-2 | Loss | -195 | 12 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Kansas City at 7:10 pm et on Friday. As high as I’ve been on Royals starter Brady Singer lately, I’ll go with the Rays on Friday as they hand the ball to their ace Shane McClanahan. McClanahan hasn’t necessarily had his best stuff over his last few outings. With that being said, he still owns a 2.64 FIP and 0.87 WHIP while yielding just north of 2.6 runs per nine innings this season. His lone previous start against the Royals came last year as he tossed five shutout innings in a 7-2 Rays victory here in St. Petersburg. Behind McClanahan is a Rays bullpen that has posted a collective 3.05 ERA and 1.08 WHIP with 22 saves converted and 11 blown at home this season (entering last night’s action). Singer has been terrific lately as I mentioned, lowering his FIP to 3.61 and his WHIP to 1.13. He’s giving up just shy of 3.5 runs per nine innings. Note that the Rays will be seeing Brady Singer for the second time this season and I expect them to improve on the numbers they posted back on July 23rd (three hits, two runs - one of them earned - while striking out 12 times). That game was played in Kansas City. The big problem for the Royals is their bullpen, which has posted a collective 7.77 ERA and 1.91 WHIP over the last seven games, entering this series, not to mention just 13 saves converted compared to 11 blown on the road this season. Take Tampa Bay (8*). | |||||||
08-19-22 | Reds -114 v. Pirates | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -114 | 21 h 29 m | Show |
N.L. Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Cincinnati first five innings over Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Friday. I like the way this one sets up for the Reds, early on at least, as they send Graham Ashcraft to the hill against Bryse Wilson of the Pirates. Ashcraft hasn’t been dominant by any stretch but he does boast a solid 4.15 FIP and 1.32 WHIP while allowing just under 4.3 runs per nine innings. That’s considerably better than his opponent on Friday, Wilson, who has posted a 5.19 FIP and 1.51 WHIP while yielding north of 6.8 runs per nine innings this season. Also note that the Reds have already seen Bryse Wilson once this season and twice since the start of last year while Ashcraft will have the advantage of facing the Buccos for the first time. We’ll play the first five innings only as the Reds bullpen continues to struggle, particularly on the road where it owns a 5.07 ERA and 1.44 WHIP this season. Take Cincinnati first five innings (10*). | |||||||
08-18-22 | Nationals v. Padres -1.5 | 3-1 | Loss | -165 | 15 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego -1.5 runs over Washington at 9:40 pm et on Thursday. I like betting on good starting pitchers to bounce back from poor outings and that's precisely what we'll do with Padres starter Yu Darvish on Thursday. Darvish has actually been on the mound for losses in each of his last two starts with the most recent coming against the same Nationals club he'll face on Thursday. He certainly didn't have his best stuff against the Nats last time out but I'm confident we'll see him bounce back here, noting he owns a 3.36 FIP and 1.01 WHIP while allowing only 3.4 runs per nine innings this season. Darvish has been at his best at home, posting a 2.17 ERA and 0.81 WHIP in 10 starts. Washington will hand the ball to journeyman starter Anibal Sanchez on Thursday. He actually opposed Darvish in that 4-3 Nats victory last week. Let's not get too excited though as Sanchez still owns an ugly 7.48 FIP and 1.60 WHIP while yielding 7.5 runs per nine innings in 30 innings of work this season. The Nats bullpen has been awful on the road this season, recording a collective 5.56 ERA and 1.49 WHIP while converting 12 saves and blowing seven. The Padres 'pen has gone through a rough stretch recently but seems to be working its way out of it having entered yesterday's game with a collective 3.86 ERA over the last seven games before tossing 4 2/3 shutout innings against the Marlins. Here at home this season, the San Diego 'pen owns a 3.29 ERA and 1.05 WHIP with 14 saves converted and seven blown. Take San Diego -1.5 runs (8*). | |||||||
08-18-22 | Mets v. Braves UNDER 7 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between New York and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Thursday. They really can't set this total low enough for the first five innings on Thursday as we have the best starting pitching matchup on the board with Jacob deGrom going for the Mets against Max Fried of the Braves. deGrom has returned in midseason form for New York after an extended layoff, posting a 0.72 FIP and 0.42 WHIP in 16 2/3 innings of work. He's held opponents to just 1.62 runs per nine innings (small sample size, I know). He didn't necessarily have his best stuff against the Braves on August 7th but still struck out 12 and gave up only two earned runs over 5 2/3 innings. Note that for his career, deGrom owns a 2.01 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in 26 starts against the Braves. The Mets bullpen on the other hand, has struggled, recording a collective 5.53 ERA and 1.48 WHIP over the last seven games so we'll look to avoid that relief corps by playing the first five innings only here. Max Fried is having a Cy Young Award-caliber season for Atlanta, sporting a 2.45 FIP and 1.08 WHIP while allowing only 2.8 runs per nine innings. He most recently faced the Mets on August 6th and gave up an uncharacteristic four runs, two of them earned, over six innings. He still owns a solid 3.14 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 14 career outings against New York. Take the first five innings under (8*). | |||||||
08-18-22 | Blue Jays v. Yankees -135 | 9-2 | Loss | -135 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Blue Jays got back on track with a 6-1 win over the Orioles yesterday while the Yankees snapped their losing streak in thrilling walk-off fashion in extra innings against the Rays. Here, I look for the Yanks to keep it going in the opener of this four-game series in the Bronx. Jose Berrios will get the call for the Blue Jays. He's been a big disappointment at the front of the Toronto rotation this year, posting a 5.07 FIP and 1.39 WHIP while giving up 5.61 runs per nine innings. This doesn't appear to be an ideal 'get right' spot for the right-hander as the Yankees have already seen him twice this season, knocking him around for eight earned runs on 11 hits over 10 1/3 innings. For his career, Berrios owns a 5.05 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in eight starts against New York. Frankie Montas continues to search for his first quality outing in Yankee pinstripes. I'm confident it's coming. For the season, Montas has recorded a 3.53 FIP and 1.19 WHIP while holding the opposition to 4.15 runs per nine innings. He's allowed 2.1 fewer hits and 0.9 fewer walks per nine innings compared to Berrios. Note that Montas did face the Blue Jays once previously in his career, allowing three earned runs over six innings in a 5-4 victory as a member of the A's last season. The Yankees boast one of baseball's elite bullpens, entering last night's action sporting a collective 2.18 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over the last seven games. While the Jays 'pen has been solid lately as well, I believe we have enough of a starting pitching edge that the later innings 'wash' won't play a factor. Take New York (8*). | |||||||
08-18-22 | Dodgers v. Brewers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
N.L. Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Milwaukee at 2:10 pm et on Thursday. Save for Tuesday's extra innings affair (even that game totalled only nine runs), this has been a low-scoring series. I anticipate more of the same in Thursday's series-finale. Andrew Heaney will get the start for the Dodgers, apparently no worse for wear after taking a line drive off his pitching arm in an outing that was cut short against the Royals last weekend. The left-hander has been terrific for the Dodgers this season, posting a 2.18 FIP and 1.00 WHIP while allowing only 2.61 runs per nine innings. Not a lot has been asked of Heaney as he generally works only 4-5 innings per start but that's fine for our purposes as the Dodgers bullpen behind him is terrific, having logged a 2.70 ERA and 0.86 WHIP over the last seven games, entering last night's action. Also keep in mind, the Brewers have struggled against left-handed starting pitching this season, averaging only 3.6 runs per game (compared to their season scoring average of 4.5 rpg). Corbin Burnes will counter for Milwaukee. He's having another fine campagn, recording a 3.05 FIP and 0.92 WHIP while yielding just 2.64 runs per nine innings. While Corbin has struggled in two previous outings against the Dodgers over the course of his career, both of those came in Los Angeles (with one of them coming all the way back in 2019) and he's yet to face them this season. Note that Burnes owns a 2.82 ERA and 0.94 WHIP at home this season and a 2.73 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in daytime starts. The Brewers bullpen has actually been virtually on par with that of the Dodgers lately, sporting a collective 2.88 ERA and 0.92 WHIP over the last seven contests, also entering last night's action. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
08-18-22 | Astros -124 v. White Sox | 21-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston first five innings over Chicago at 2:10 pm et on Thursday. The Astros got back at the White Sox with a 3-2 victory last night and I look for them to get off to another solid start in Thursday afternoon's series-finale. Luis Garcia gets the start for Houston. He's been good but certainly not great as a back-of-the-rotation starter for the Astros this season, checking in with a 3.93 FIP and 1.13 WHIP while allowing 4.41 runs per nine innings. I do like the fact that he enters this start on a full five days' rest - that matters as we near the later stages of the regular season. Chicago will hand the ball to Lucas Giolito who will be starting on just four days' rest after matching a season-high working seven innings in his most recent outing. It's been a trying campaign for the right-hander as he has posted a 4.10 FIP and 1.49 WHIP, yielding 5.24 runs per nine innings. Note that Giolito allows 2.5 more hits and 0.7 more walks per nine innings this season compared to his counterpart on Thursday, Garcia. The Astros saw Giolito back in mid-June, chasing him after five innings but not before scoring eight earned runs. We'll play the first five innings only in this one as we look to avoid an Astros bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a collective 8.27 ERA and 2.33 WHIP over the last seven games and one that has been significantly worse on the road compared to at home this season. Take Houston first five innings (8*). | |||||||
08-18-22 | A's v. Rangers -175 | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas first five innings over Oakland at 2:05 pm et on Thursday. The A's have taken the last two games in this series (we won with Oakland +1.5 on Tuesday and the 'over' last night) but I look for the Rangers to answer back, at least early on in Thursday's series-finale. Zach Logue will get another turn in the rotation for the A's. He's struggled in his rookie campaign, posting a 5.33 FIP and 1.44 WHIP while giving up just north of 5.7 runs per nine innings. To make matters worse, he'll be facing a Rangers club that has feasted on left-handed starting pitching this season (averaging 5.1 runs per game compared to its season scoring average of 4.4 rpg) and will be seeing him for the second time after tagging him for seven hits and four earned runs including two home runs in just 2 1/3 innings back in late May. Note that Logue hasn't just struggled at the big league level this season as he also recorded a 6.29 ERA and 1.88 WHIP in 14 starts at AAA. He's in the A's rotation out of necessity only right now. Texas will counter with Dane Dunning. While he hasn't had as good of a season as he did last year, he's still been serviceable, recording a 4.10 FIP and 1.38 WHIP while allowing 4.35 runs per nine innings. He gives up 1.1 fewer hits and 0.9 fewer home runs per nine innings in comparison with Logue this season. While Dunning didn't have his best stuff in his lone previous start against the A's this season, he still kept his team in the game, allowing just two earned runs over 4 2/3 innings in a start in Oakland back in late May. With the two bullpens virtually a wash in terms of recent form and overall away/home numbers this season, we'll look to isolate A's starter Logue and back the Rangers in the first five innings only in this one. Take Texas first five innings (8*). | |||||||
08-17-22 | A's v. Rangers OVER 8.5 | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Oakland and Texas at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. While we’re dealing with small sample sizes to be sure, both of Wednesday’s starters, Adam Oller of the A’s and Cole Ragans of the Rangers have struggled mightily at times this season. I’m expecting plenty of offense as they match up on Wednesday evening. Oller owns a 6.86 FIP and 1.78 WHIP in 48 1/3 innings of work this season, yielding a whopping 7.82 runs per nine innings. The Rangers will be seeing him for the second time after scoring five earned runs, including two home runs, off of him over five innings back in late April. Ragans has only pitched 9 1/3 innings at the big league level this season, posting a 7.29 FIP and 1.71 WHIP while getting tagged for 5.79 runs per nine innings. Most concerning is the fact that Ragans has issued seven walks while striking out only four since joining the Rangers rotation earlier this month. While both bullpens have been solid lately, neither is strong enough to keep us off the full game ‘over’ in this one. Between the two teams, they’ve combined to blow 34 saves this season (entering last night’s action) so the potential is there for late runs on the board, should we need them. Take the over (9*). | |||||||
08-17-22 | Mets -142 v. Braves | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York first five innings over Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Wednesday. Credit Braves’ recent acquisition Jake Odorizzi as he’s actually pitched reasonably well this season, splitting time between Houston and Atlanta. However, his numbers don’t hold a candle to those of his counterpart on Wednesday, Max Scherzer of the Mets. Scherzer checks in with a 2.40 FIP and 0.92 WHIP this season, yielding only 2.1 runs per nine innings. He’s allowed 1.9 fewer hits and 1.3 fewer walks while striking out 4.2 more batters per nine innings in comparison with Odorizzi this season. He’s already baffled the Braves twice this season, allowing only one earned run while striking out 20 across 14 innings in two starts. We’ll play the first five innings only in this one as Atlanta does have an edge in terms of the two bullpens. The Braves relief corps entered last night’s action sporting a collective 1.73 ERA and 1.23 WHIP with five saves converted and only one blown over the last seven games. We’ll look to avoid that potential poor later innings matchup here. Take New York first five innings (8*). | |||||||
08-17-22 | Red Sox v. Pirates OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. This game sets up nicely as a high-scoring affair between the Red Sox and Pirates at PNC Park. Veteran left-hander Rich Hill will take the ball for the Red Sox. He continues to labor through the 2022 campaign, sporting a 4.31 FIP and 1.35 WHIP while allowing north of 5.2 runs per nine innings. Behind Hill is a disappointing Red Sox bullpen that entered last night’s series-opener having posted a collective 6.04 ERA and 1.50 WHIP over the last seven games. On the road it has converted only 13 saves while blowing 12, again prior to last night’s action. The Pirates will turn to Roansy Contreras on Wednesday. He’s had an up-and-down season, with more downs than ups. Contreras has posted a 4.89 FIP and a 1.38 WHIP, yielding 4.32 runs per nine innings. He’ll be making his first big league start since July 7th and hasn’t necessarily dominated at the minor league level, recording a 3.15 ERA and 1.22 WHIP at AAA and still struggling with his command, allowing 1.0 home runs and 3.4 walks per nine innings (he’s given up 1.6 home runs and 4.0 walks per nine innings in 12 MLB appearances this season). Like the Red Sox ‘pen, the Pirates relief corps has struggled, particularly of late as it has recorded a collective 6.15 ERA and 1.52 WHIP over the last seven contests, entering last night’s action. For the season, the Buccos ‘pen owns a 4.41 ERA and 1.38 WHIP with only 11 saves converted compared to nine blown at home. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
08-17-22 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -160 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
A.L. Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Toronto first five innings over Baltimore at 3:05 pm et on Wednesday. |
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