Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-22-23 | Devils +130 v. Rangers | 2-1 | Win | 130 | 13 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Jersey over New York at 8 pm et on Saturday. While the Rangers own a 2-0 stranglehold in this series after stealing Games 1 and 2 in Newark, I don't think we're going to see the Devils simply roll over with the series shifting to Manhattan for Game 3 on Saturday. New Jersey won a game here at Madison Square Garden in the regular season and actually pulled off three straight victories on the road against the Blueshirts as recently as 2020-21. Of course, the Devils have played their best hockey on the road this season, averaging 3.7 goals per game and outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 0.8 goals. Interestingly, Rangers all-world goaltender Igor Shesterkin has been slightly weaker at home this season, posting a .913 save percentage while posting a 20-13 record in his 33 home starts. Home ice advantage is often overplayed in the postseason and I do think that's the case here, keeping in mind, only one of eight teams managed to hold serve at home in both games at the start of these playoffs (Carolina). While the Rangers have won consecutive games over the Devils, they haven't posted three straight victories in this series since late 2021 into 2022. Finally, we'll note that New Jersey is 12-7 when playing on the road seeking revenge for a home loss by two goals or more over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.9 goals on average in that situation. Better still, the Devils are 8-2 when on the road seeking revenge for a home loss by three goals or more over the same stretch, as is the case here, outscoring foes by 1.7 goals on average. Take New Jersey (8*). | |||||||
04-22-23 | Bucks v. Heat UNDER 220.5 | 99-121 | Win | 100 | 21 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Miami at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. We've seen two exceptionally high-scoring games to open this series, totalling 247 and 260 points. Now we're heading into uncharted territory in this series, however, noting that the 'over' has cashed in each of the last four meetings, matching the longest 'over' streak since way back in 2007-08. That four-game 'over' streak ended with an extremely low-scoring 78-73 Heat victory, staying 'under' the total by 40+ points. While we're not going to see that type of defensive struggle here, I do think the total will prove too high. Giannis Antetokounmpo remains questionable to play for the Bucks. Regardless whether he's able to go, the incentive is there for the Heat to slow things down at home, where they've averaged 40 made field goals per game while giving up an identical 40. We've seen a shift from the Bucks defensively as they've made an effort to limit their opponents' possessions, unlike what we saw for much of the regular season. They've limited four of their last seven foes to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. The Heat have knocked down 50 and 45 field goals in the first two games of this series. Keep in mind, they've made good on 45 or more field goals in just six of their last 15 contests. In other words, I don't think their hot shooting is sustainable. The Bucks, meanwhile, made good on a whopping 53 field goals in Game 2. The previous three times they knocked down 50 or more field goals, they connected on just 39, 38 and 39 field goals in their next contest with the 'under' cashing in two of those three games. Finally, we'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 127-96 with the Heat playing the role of home underdog, as is the case here. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
04-22-23 | White Sox v. Rays -179 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Chicago at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. I'm willing to pay up to back the Rays in Game 2 of this series against the White Sox after they probably had no business winning last night's game (but did anyway). Chicago's bullpen continues to implode game-after-game. It entered this series sporting a collective 6.68 ERA and 1.77 WHIP and those numbers only got worse after last night's debacle. On a positive note for Chicago, Dylan Cease will get the start on Saturday. He's faced the Rays three times previously and has never lasted a full six innings. Cease enters this start sporting a sparkling 2.01 ERA this season but probably hasn't been quite as good as that ERA indicates, recording a 3.34 FIP with 28-of-99 batters he has faced reaching base despite hits falling in at an unusually low rate. The Rays will of course put pressure on the best of pitchers and remain one of the healthiest lineups in baseball as we approach the end of April. Tampa Bay will hand the ball to its own ace, Shane McClanahan. He's been outstanding through his first four starts this season with the Rays winning all four of those games. McClanahan has posted a 2.43 FIP and 1.13 WHIP and has yet to give up a home run. Again, the bullpen matchup in this series is no contest, noting that Tampa Bay relievers entered last night's action with a collective 2.89 ERA and 1.09 WHIP, converting three saves without blowing a single one. With the White Sox still sorely missing table-setter Tim Anderson at the top of their lineup, I look for the Rays to put another one past them on Saturday afternoon. Take Tampa Bay (8*). | |||||||
04-22-23 | Dodgers -128 v. Cubs | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Chicago at 2:20 pm et on Saturday. The Dodgers were a no-show yesterday after taking the opener of this four-game set on Thursday. I look for them to bounce back on Saturday, however, as they hand the ball to Dustin May against Hayden Wesneski of the Cubs. May is off to a terrific start this season but did get roughed up at the hands of the Mets last time out. The right-hander still owns a solid 3.80 FIP and 0.92 WHIP and I like his chances of rebounding against a Cubs offense that isn’t as good as it showed in yesterday’s 13-0 rout. Note that only 23-of-92 batters May has faced have reached base this season. That’s in stark contrast to his counterpart Wesneski, who has allowed 23-of-61 batters aboard. Wesneski did silence the lowly A’s bats last time out but still owns an ERA and FIP north of six this season. While he does have terrific stuff, he’s not really fooling a lot of big league hitters right now with only 11 strikeouts in 13 innings of work this season. While the Cubs bullpen has been more effective than that of the Dodgers so far this season I do expect that script to flip as time goes on. Thanks to the lopsided nature of yesterday’s defeat the Dodgers have their key relievers fresh for this contest. Take Los Angeles (8*). | |||||||
04-21-23 | Mets v. Giants -105 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
National League Game of the Week. My selection is on San Francisco over New York at 10:15 pm et on Friday. The Mets entered the week on a four-game winning streak and have stayed hot, first taking two of three games from the mighty Dodgers in Los Angeles and then defeating the down-trodden Giants 9-4 in last night's series-opener in San Francisco. I look for their streak to grind to a halt on Friday, however, as they send Joey Lucchesi to the mound for his first big league start since 2021 against Anthony DeSclafani of the Giants. The plan probably wasn't for Lucchesi to be dropped into the starting rotation so early this season but the Mets are desperate with Justin Verlander and Carlos Carrasco sidelined due to injuries and Max Scherzer now suspended for 10 games for using an illegal substance. Lucchesi will be making his first big league start since undergoing Tommy John surgery. He has made three starts at the minor league level this season, recording an impressive 2.30 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. However, 18-of-64 batters he has faced have reached base and he was tagged for a pair of home runs in 15 2/3 innings of work so it's not as if he's been setting the Triple-A circuit on fire. It remains to be seen how deep he can work into a game and the Mets bullpen is a bit taxed at this point, having already logged 75 1/3 innings and not having had a day off since April 13th. DeSclafani has been sharp in his first three starts for the Giants this season. While he's bound to suffer some regression as he enters sporting a 1.42 ERA, his 2.34 FIP and 0.63 WHIP indicate he's pitching well without the help of smoke-and-mirrors. Only 12 of the 68 batters he has faced have reached base through his 19 innings of work this season. This will be a 'revenge game' of sorts for DeSclafani after he allowed five earned runs on nine hits over five innings against the Mets last April. I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt here as he was pitching on short rest (four days) in that previous outing against them and certainly wasn't in the same form he is now, noting that he battled injuries from that start on last year, ultimately making only two more trips to the hill (two months later) before being shut down for the season. Behind DeSclafani is a Giants bullpen that has struggled to the tune of a 5.65 ERA and 1.45 WHIP this season but does come in relatively fresh after Tristan Beck did yeoman's work last night, tossing 5 1/3 innings in relief of an ineffective Sean Manaea, just one day after getting called from the minors. On the flip side, the Mets were forced to use key reliever Drew Smith for the second straight game (and third in the last four) meaning he likely won't be available for Friday's game. Remember, New York is already without closer Edwin Diaz and Stephen Nogosek due to injuries. Take San Francisco (10*). | |||||||
04-21-23 | Cavs v. Knicks OVER 211 | 79-99 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and New York at 8:30 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'over' in these two teams' final regular season meeting back on March 31st - a game that totalled a whopping 246 total points. Since then, we've seen Games 1 and 2 of this playoff series stay comfortably 'under' the total. I expect a different story to unfold on Friday, however, as the scene shifts to Madison Square Garden for Game 3. Both defenses are terrific, that much we know. The offenses aren't too bad either though, even if the Knicks did turn in a brutal performance in Game 2. Keep in mind, Game 1 reached 198 total points despite both teams shooting poorly, knocking down a combined 73 field goals (they've combined to average 83 made field goals per game this season). Game 2's low-scoring result had a lot to do with the lopsided nature of the contest, with the Cavaliers racing ahead by 20 points before halftime and then effectively taking the air out of the basketball in the fourth quarter (they ran the shot clock down on nearly every possession in the final 7-8 minutes). Cleveland keyed on stopping Jalen Brunson on Tuesday after he scored 27 points in just 29 minutes in the series-opener. The Knicks supporting cast certainly didn't perform up to standards in Game 2 but I'm confident we'll see a solid bounce-back effort across the board here, including from Brunson as New York makes the necessary adjustments to find him more open looks. Note that Josh Hart was a virtual non-factor offensively in his 26 minutes as he played hurt with an ankle injury (he scored five points but averages double-figures this season). The extra day off between Games 2 and 3 should serve him well. On the flip side, Donovan Mitchell scored just 17 points in Game 2 - only the second time in the last nine games he contributed 30 points or less. Again, that had a lot to do with the lopsided nature of the game. Even if Darius Garland stays aggressive in Game 3, I still expect Mitchell to get his. Here, we'll note that the 'under' has not cashed in three straight meetings in this series since 2017. That stretch came across two seasons. To find the last time three consecutive matchups have stayed 'under' the total in the same season, you would have to go back to the 2015-16 campaign. Also note that in that most recent three-game series 'under' streak in 2017, only two of those contests stayed 'under' the total we're working with tonight. Finally, we'll note that while the Knicks average 117.3 points per game at home this season, that number bumps up to 120.3 ppg when listed as a home favorite, as is the case here. Better still, the 'over' is 13-5 with New York playing at home following an 'under' result, with the Knicks averaging 121.4 points per contest and those games totalling an average of 235.1 points. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
04-21-23 | Bruins -154 v. Panthers | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
Eastern Conference First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Boston over Florida at 7:30 pm et on Friday. UPDATE: Patrice Bergeron has been ruled OUT which shouldn't come as a surprise. What is unexpected is that goaltender Linus Ullmark is questionable to start. Even if he can't go, I'll still recommend a play on the Bruins as they have one of the best backup goaltenders in the league in Jeremy Swayman who owns a .920 save percentage on the season (.912 on the road where the Bruins have gone 13-6 in his 19 starts). Most had written off the Panthers prior to their Game 2 victory in Boston on Wednesday, perhaps including the Bruins as they came out flat on home ice and as a result are tied at one game apiece as this series shifts to Sunrise on Friday. I'm not overly concerned about Boston's outlook in this series. For my money, the B's have one of the best coaching staffs in the league, led by Jim Montgomery. I don't think it will take much at all for him to get his experienced group ready to bounce back in Game 3. We hadn't seen the Bruins play as poorly as they did on Wednesday since suffering a 6-3 loss in Chicago way back on March 14th. They followed up that ugly effort with a near-flawless 3-0 road win in Winnipeg two nights later. In fact, the Bruins are 38-13 off a loss over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.8 goals on average. Perhaps better still, Boston is 19-4 when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.6 goals in that situation. While the Panthers are 43-41 overall this season, they're just 16-26 after scoring four goals or more in their previous contest, as is the case here. While the Panthers have posted consecutive wins over the Bruins as recently as 2019, you would have to go all the way back to the 2006-07 campaign to find the last time they beat the Bruins in two straight matchups in the same season. Take Boston (10*). | |||||||
04-20-23 | Jets v. Golden Knights -155 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
Western Conference First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Vegas over Winnipeg at 10 pm et on Thursday. The Jets won Game 1 of this series by a lopsided score of 5-1 two nights ago but that final score didn't tell the whole story. It was a 2-1 game after two periods with Winnipeg pulling away late thanks to a pair of empty-net goals. Make no mistake, the Golden Knights came out inexplicably flat, managing just 17 shots on goal in the entire game. Perhaps given the fact they had swept the regular season series, were at home and had Mark Stone back in the lineup, a win would be assured. That simply wasn't the case as the Jets played a perfect playoff road game and earned at least a split in Las Vegas. Here, I'm confident we'll see the Golden Knights answer back, noting that they've only once previously lost consecutive home games against the Jets in their franchise history, and those two defeats came two-plus years apart in 2019 and 2022 (due to Covid-related scheduling quirks). Note that the Knights are 23-11 when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by 0.7 goals on average in that situation. It's not as if this was a team playing poorly down the stretch. Quite the opposite, in fact, as Vegas secured a Pacific Division title thanks to going 24-9 over its final 33 regular season games. Over that stretch, the Knights lost consecutive games on only two occasions. They haven't dropped two straight games at home since January 14th to 19th when they lost three in a row here at T-Mobile Arena (that was in the midst of a 1-7 slide). Note that the Jets check in averaging just 2.3 goals per game after winning six or seven of their last eight games this season, as is the case here, outscored by 0.8 goals on average in that situation (15-game sample size). Meanwhile, the Knights have averaged 3.9 goals when seeking revenge for a loss in which they scored one goal or less over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.0 goal (17-game sample size). Take Vegas (10*). | |||||||
04-20-23 | Kings v. Warriors -5.5 | Top | 97-114 | Win | 100 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
Pacific Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Sacramento at 10 pm et on Thursday. The Warriors have had no answers for the aggressiveness of De'Aaron Fox and Malik Monk through two games in this series. While the sudden absence of Draymond Green (due to suspension) doesn't figure to help matters, I actually think Golden State can spin it into a positive as it returns home in an 0-2 hole on Thursday. The absence of Green should mean more minutes for the likes of Donte DiVincenzo, Jonathan Kuminga and Gary Payton Jr, all of which can help out on defense but also provide more of a spark offensively. Here, we'll note that the Warriors have gone 14-6 ATS when playing at home off an ATS loss this season, averaging 120.6 points per game (compared to their home season scoring average of 119.7 ppg) while outscoring opponents by an average margin of 8.8 points in that situation. Better still, Golden State is 25-13 ATS at home off a loss of any kind over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 9.6 points on average in that spot. While the Kings have averaged 118.0 points per game on the road this season, that number drops to 115.4 when checking in as a road underdog. Sacramento enters this game off consecutive wins but hasn't won three straight contests since March 15th to 18th and all three of those victories came against Eastern Conference opponents. Despite their poor start in this series, the Warriors check in 8-4 ATS over their last 12 games having not dropped three in a row since, coincidentally, March 15th to 18th. While Golden State has obviously struggled to defend Sacramento at times in this series, I do think the Warriors deserve credit for their defensively play in recent weeks. Note that Golden State has held 12 straight opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals, despite nine of those foes getting off 90 or more field goal attempts. In stark contrast, the Kings have allowed 12 of their last 14 opponents to shoot 47% or better from the field. That's concerning when you consider that the Warriors have gotten off 90 or more FG attempts in five of their last seven games and have knocked down more than 40 field goals in 14 of their last 17 contests. In other words, I don't believe the sky is falling in San Francisco and expect the defending champions to get back in this series on Thursday. Take Golden State (10*). | |||||||
04-20-23 | Padres v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
N.L. Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between San Diego and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Thursday. You have to figure the Padres offense is going to explode sooner rather than later after being held to a grand total of two runs over their last four games and four runs or less in nine of their last 10 contests (they scored 10 runs in the lone outlier over that stretch). I actually like the way this spot sets up for the San Diego bats. Note that the Padres will be seeing Diamondbacks starter Ryne Nelson for the fourth time going back to last season. That's notable when you consider Nelson will only be making his seventh career big league start. Since getting shut down by Nelson in their first look at him last September, they've plated six earned runs on nine hits over just 10 1/3 innings against him, including a 5-4 loss at home back on April 3rd. San Diego has struggled mightily at the plate at home this season but has been much more productive on the road, where it averages 4.4 runs per game (compared to its season scoring average of 3.6 rpg). Here, we'll note that Nelson will be making his first career start on short (four days') rest. Note that while he has recorded a respectable 3.71 ERA so far this season, his 4.56 FIP tells a different story. After striking out 7.9 batters per nine innings in limited work last season, Nelson has seen that number drop to 5.3 this year. Michael Wacha will take the ball for the visiting Padres. He's had an up-and-down start to the campaign, most recently getting shelled by the red hot Brewers last time out. Wacha hasn't been quite as bad as his 6.06 ERA would seem to indicate but he hasn't been good either, recording a 4.79 FIP and 1.47 WHIP while allowing 24 of the 70 batters he's faced to reach base. I expect him to labor against a D'Backs lineup that can wear you out. Similar to the Guardians (who we won with yesterday), Arizona has speed to burn and is aggressive on the basepaths, with 19 stolen bases so far this season. While Wacha enjoyed a renaissance year of sorts with the Red Sox in 2022, his numbers have generally been on the decline and while he's capable of giving the Padres some quality innings, there are going to be some rough outings in the mix as well, as we saw in his most recent start. Behind Wacha is a Padres bullpen that hasn't enjoyed a day off since April 5th. San Diego relievers have logged a collective 3.93 ERA and 1.37 WHIP and have just 19 strikeouts compared to 14 walks over their last 25 innings of work. The D'Backs bullpen has been among the worst in baseball, posting a collective 5.51 ERA and 1.43 WHIP with those numbers ballooning to a 6.66 ERA and 1.60 WHIP over the last seven games. It's been a week since Arizona had a day off and with a number of recent high-scoring games, its bullpen has been taxed. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
04-20-23 | Lightning v. Maple Leafs -160 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto over Tampa Bay at 7 pm et on Thursday. The Maple Leafs already had their share of doubters making their voices loud and clear leading into this series - that's what happens when you're a high-profile team that hasn't made it past the first round in what seems like an eternity. Of course, the noise is even louder after Toronto dropped the opener of this series in blowout fashion on Tuesday. I'm confident we see the Leafs respond favorably in Game 2 on Thursday, however. While Toronto hasn't been able to win a first round series in nearly two decades, it has had plenty of success on an individual game level. In fact, the Leafs are 11-3 in the first five games of a series when coming off a loss going back to 2013. Over the last three seasons, Toronto is 30-7 when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.4 goals in that spot. Better still, the Leafs are 13-1 when playing at home off a loss by two goals or more over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.9 goals on average along the way. The Lightning have to be pleased with stealing a game in Toronto when you consider they're just 19-23 on the road this season, where they've been outscored by an average margin of 0.5 goals. Leafs goaltender Ilya Samsonov has to shoulder some of the blame for their Game 1 loss as he wasn't sharp after being so good down the stretch. On the season, Samsonov still owns a solid .921 save percentage on home ice. On the flip side, Bolts netminder Andrei Vasilevskiy has had a down year by most accounts, entering Thursday's game with a .900 save percentage over his last four games and a .912 save percentage on the road this season. The Leafs will be without Michael Bunting as he's been suspended for his questionable hit on key Lightning defenseman Eric Cernak in Game 1. That's probably not a bad trade-off for the Leafs as Cernak will miss Game 2, severely testing Tampa Bay's defensive depth with all-world d-man Victor Hedman questionable to play due to injury as well. Finally, we'll note that the Bolts are just 3-8 when playing on the road after scoring three goals or more in four consecutive games this season, as is the case here, outscored by 1.7 goals on average in that situation. Take Toronto (8*). | |||||||
04-19-23 | Wolves v. Nuggets OVER 222.5 | Top | 113-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
Northwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Denver at 10 pm et on Wednesday. We saw an incredibly low-scoring (by today's NBA standards) series-opener between these two teams on Sunday as the Nuggets cruised to a 109-80 victory. I certainly expect to see a positive response from the Timberwolves offensively on Wednesday. Note that Minnesota has scored 107, 112, 109, 123 and 119 points after being held under 100 points in its previous game this season. It's also worth mentioning that the T'Wolves have averaged 118.7 points per game when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent this season compared to their overall season scoring average of 115.2 points per game. After hoisting up only 81 field goal attempts despite trailing most of the way on Sunday, I expect the T'Wolves to make a concerted effort to push the pace here, noting they rank eighth in the league in fast break points per game this season. Of course, the Nuggets are favored by a generous helping of points for a reason. They've been considerably better offensively at home compared to on the road this season, averaging 119.1 points per game. They didn't have to be great offensively to win handily in Game 1 but I do think they'll get pushed a little more here. Note that they enter this game having knocked down more than 40 field goals in six straight and 15 of their last 17 games overall. Meanwhile, Minnesota hasn't had much success controlling its opponents' tempo, allowing eight of its last nine opponents to hoist up 90 or more field goal attempts. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
04-19-23 | Wild v. Stars -146 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
Central Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Dallas over Minnesota at 9:30 pm et on Wednesday. Perhaps the Stars got caught reading some of their own press leading up to this series as many picked them as a possible sleeper team to come out of the Western Conference. Regardless, it was a sluggish start on home ice for Dallas as it was outshot 29-15 through the first two periods of Game 1 (but remained level at two goals apiece) before waking up and outshooting the Wild 38-19 the rest of the way in an eventual 3-2 double-overtime loss. As if the Stars needed any more fuel for their fire, they lost Joe Pavelski to a head injury following a questionable hit from repeat-offender Matt Dumba (he won't be suspended for the hit). Pavelski has given the Stars nearly a point-per-game this season, something they likely weren't counting on heading into the campaign. I do think Dallas has more than enough depth (and experience) up front to make up for Pavelski's absence should he be sidelined on Wednesday. Here, we'll note that the Stars have held the opposition to just 2.5 goals per game and outscored foes by 1.0 goal on average when coming off a loss this season (33-game sample size). The Wild check in 4-10 when coming off a road win over a division opponent over the last two seasons, allowing 3.5 goals per contest and outscored by an average margin of 0.8 goals in that situation. Minnesota has now taken consecutive matchups against the Stars but hasn't won three in a row in this series since 2020-21. Game 1 could have gone either way but the Stars have to at least be happy with the way they played over the game's final two-plus periods. Knowing this series will only get tougher as it progresses with the Wild expected to get both John Klingberg and Joel Eriksson Ek back in the lineup sooner rather than later, evening this series up on home ice is obviously paramount for Dallas on Wednesday. Take Dallas (10*). | |||||||
04-19-23 | Lakers v. Grizzlies +1.5 | 93-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Memphis over Los Angeles at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday. We've seen a major adjustment to this pointspread since Game 1, due in large part to the up-in-the-air status of Ja Morant after he re-aggravated his hand injury in the series-opener. I believe it will prove too much of an adjustment as the Grizzlies look to answer back at home, where they're still an incredible 35-7 this season having outscored the opposition by an average margin of 10.0 points per game. Keep in mind, Memphis is accustomed to playing without Morant as it has done so on 22 occasions this season. Also note that he has topped out at 18 points in six of his last nine games so I do think his offensive production can be accounted for with Tyus Jones and Luke Kennard in particular being called upon. The Lakers are approaching uncharted territory noting that they've now won four straight games. They've only once previously won more than four games in a row this season, that coming in a five-game win streak from December 30th to January 7th. Also note that they've now covered the spread in consecutive meetings with the Grizzlies. They haven't managed to reel off three straight ATS victories in this series since way back in 2017. The fact that the Lakers pulled away in the closing minutes on Saturday sets them up in a situation where they've gone 18-35 ATS following a double-digit win over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies are 10-2 ATS when playing at home following two or more days' rest this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 16.5 points on average in that spot. They've also 24-11 ATS when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 4.6 points in that situation. I could go on but the bottom line is, I don't anticipate the Lakers getting anything close to the combined 19-of-27 shooting we saw from the duo of Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura in Game 1, while the Grizzlies have proven resilient under head coach Taylor Jenkins going 23-10 ATS playing at home off a home loss and 38-22 ATS when coming off consecutive defeats. Take Memphis (8*). | |||||||
04-19-23 | Twins -124 v. Red Sox | 10-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota over Boston at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Red Sox took the opener of this series in extra innings last night but I look for the Twins to answer back on Wednesday. Joe Ryan will take the ball for Minnesota. He has posted terrific numbers through his first three starts this season and it hasn't had anything to do with smoke-and-mirrors. Ryan owns a 2.84 ERA and a 3.10 WHIP not to mention a sparkling 0.63 WHIP. Of the 70 batters he has faced, only 12 have reached base. Keep in mind, the right-hander posted a solid 3.99 FIP and 1.10 WHIP in his first full big league season last year. Behind Ryan is a Twins bullpen that has recorded a collective 2.75 ERA and 0.99 WHIP, converting five saves and blowing only two. Red Sox starter Corey Kluber has labored through his first three starts this season and he's been every bit as bad as his 6.92 ERA indicates, logging a 6.70 FIP and 1.46 WHIP in 13 innings of work. In stark contrast to Ryan, Kluber has allowed 19 of the 57 batters he has faced to reach base. The Red Sox bullpen has held up well but there's reason for concern as they've already logged a whopping 76 1/3 innings. Over the last seven games alone Red Sox relievers have worked 29 2/3 innings. Compare that to the Twins relief corps, which has been called into action for just 52 1/3 innings this season. Take Minnesota (8*). | |||||||
04-19-23 | Guardians -137 v. Tigers | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 52 m | Show |
Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland over Detroit at 1:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Guardians have lost three games in a row including a double-header sweep at the hands of the Tigers yesterday. All three of those contests could have gone either way as they were all decided by a single run. I expect to see the Guardians offense wake up on Wednesday afternoon as they face Spencer Turnbull of the Tigers. Turnbull hasn't been as bad as his inflated 9.00 ERA would seem to indicate but he hasn't been good either. The right-hander checks in sporting a 4.62 FIP and 1.92 WHIP through 13 innings of work. The Tigers have been careful with him as he works his way back from Tommy John surgery. As I've noted on more than one occasion this season, the Guardians are a taxing opponent to face as they put a ton of pressure on opposing pitchers thanks to their speed and aggressiveness on the basepaths. Here, they'll be facing Turnbull who has had a tendency to put a lot of runners on with 27 of the 63 batters he has faced reaching base so far this season. Behind Turnbull is a Tigers bullpen that held up well in yesterday's double-header but entered the day sporting a collective 5.46 ERA and 1.28 WHIP with only two saves converted and three blown this season. Cal Quantrill will take the ball for the Guardians. He has posted similar numbers to those of Turnbull so far this season. He hasn't had as much of an issue with his command, however, and will be facing the weaker of the two lineups in this contest (note that the Tigers 3, 4 and 5 hitters last night finished the game batting .189, .189 and .167, respectively). The hits have been falling in at an uncommon rate against Quantrill so far this season (12.1 hits allowed per nine innings) when you consider that he has only allowed more hits than innings pitched in one of his previous four big league seasons - that in his rookie campaign with the Padres in 2019). Quantrill has alternated good and bad outings against the Tigers over the course of his career but the Guardians have won his last two starts against them by a combined 18-4 score. Cleveland's bullpen entered yesterday's action with a collective 3.23 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in tow and didn't end up using closer Emmanuel Clase, keeping him fresh in case he's called upon on Wednesday afternoon. Take Cleveland (10*). | |||||||
04-18-23 | Mets v. Dodgers -150 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
Non-Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles over New York at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Mets took the opener of this series by a score of 8-6 last night as the Dodgers fell below the .500 mark once again. I look for Los Angeles to answer back behind veteran starter Clayton Kershaw on Tuesday. New York will hand the ball to Tylor Megill. While he owns a sparkling 2.25 ERA through his first three starts this season, his 4.64 FIP tells a different story. Megill isn't really fooling many hitters with a 1.9 strikeout-to-walk ratio through 16 innings of work. Of the 65 batters he has faced, 19 have reached base. Note that Megill is headed into uncharted territory riding a five-game team win streak in his starts going back to last season. He's accomplished that feat once previously in his career with the Mets losing his next outing by a 9-2 score against the Braves, at home no less. Kershaw is off to a solid if not spectacular start this season having logged a 4.44 FIP and 1.11 WHIP. His command has been there as he has recorded 8.5 strikeouts and just 2.0 walks per nine innings. Note that Kershaw faced the Mets once last season and was effective, allowing just one earned run (on only one hit) while striking out six and walking three over five innings. The Dodgers have gone an incredible 15-3 in Kershaw's 18 career outings against New York but again, only last year's start was all that relevant as that was his first start against the Mets since 2019. The Mets bullpen has been terrific despite missing some key arms due to injury. However, I am concerned with the fact that their relief corps has already logged 62 1/3 innings. The Dodgers did save some of their key bullpen arms thanks to trailing by multiple runs over the game's final three innings last night. I certainly anticipate positive regression from the Los Angeles 'pen as it has uncharacteristically struggled so far this season, recording a collective 4.97 and 1.53 WHIP. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
04-18-23 | Rangers +118 v. Devils | Top | 5-1 | Win | 118 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
Metropolitan Division Game of the Month. My selection is on New York over New Jersey at 7 pm et on Tuesday. We actually won with the Devils in each of the last two meetings between these two teams, most recently in their 2-1 victory here in Newark on March 30th. I won't hesitate to switch gears on Tuesday, however, as these two old Patrick Division rivals renew acquaintances in the postseason. The fact that New Jersey has won the last two matchups between these two teams is notable. The Devils haven't won three consecutive meetings in this series since 2020-21. They've met 14 times since. To find the last time New Jersey won three straight matchups in the same season you would have to go all the way back to 2013, when it still had Hall-of-Fame goaltender Martin Brodeur between the pipes. The Rangers also enter this playoff series on the heels of consecutive losses to close out the regular season. Of course those setbacks were of little consequence with playoff positioning already all but settled. Here, we'll note that the Rangers are 15-7 when playing on the road after scoring two goals or less in consecutive games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 0.4 goals on average in that situation. They're also 26-14 when seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent over the same stretch, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.2 goals in that spot. The Devils check in off consecutive wins to close out the regular season, including a come-from-behind 5-4 overtime victory in Washington last time out. Note that they're just 15-24 when playing at home after scoring four goals or more in their last game over the last three seasons. While expectations are high for the Rangers entering these playoffs, I think starting on the road might be for the best as it does relieve some of the pressure. Note that New York was at its best away from home this season, going 24-17 while outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.8 goals. Take New York (10*). | |||||||
04-18-23 | Hawks v. Celtics OVER 229.5 | Top | 106-119 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
Eastern Conference First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Boston at 7 pm et on Tuesday. Game 1 between these two teams on Saturday was an interesting affair that saw one quarter (the fourth) total only 42 points but another reach a whopping 70 points (the second). That contest ultimately cruised well below the total as both teams were inconsistent offensively. I expect a different story to unfold in Game 2 on Tuesday, however, as the Hawks look to punch back while the Celtics try to grab a 2-0 strangle-hold before the scene shifts to Atlanta. One thing is for sure, the Hawks are going to get their scoring opportunities. In four meetings in this series this season, Atlanta has hoisted up 101, 100, 97 and 98 field goal attempts. Saturday's game marked a low-water mark as the Hawks made good on just 42 of those attempts. It's highly unlikely we'll see them shoot as poorly as they did on Saturday from beyond the arc (5-of-29 on three-point attempts). The problem is, even if Atlanta is able to do a much better job of taking advantage of its opportunities offensively, the Celtics are in line for some positive regression offensively as well and aren't likely to take their foot off the gas the way they did in the second half on Saturday. After scoring 74 points in the first half, Boston produced a miserable 38 points in the second half, actually letting the Hawks back into the game in the fourth quarter. Jaylen Brown clearly struggled after re-aggravating the laceration on his hand while Jayson Tatum scored well below his season average with 25 points on 10-of-23 shooting. Even going down the line, guys like Al Horford and Malcolm Brogdon made only minimal offensive contributions (11 points combined). Given the Hawks have now allowed more than 40 made field goals in 22 of their last 24 games and 40 or more in 26 of their last 28 contests, the Celtics are well-positioned to go off here. While Boston is still a terrific defensive team, we have certainly witnessed a shift this season with it yielding far more scoring opportunities thanks in large part to playing at a faster pace. The C's enter this game having allowed 90 or more field goal attempts in eight of their last nine contests. On the flip side, they've hoisted up 88 or more FG attempts themselves in 11 of their last 12 games. The Hawks have seen their last two games stay 'under' the total. While they've recorded 'under' streaks lasting three games or more on five previous occasions this season, I think their totals are being over-adjusted at this point. For instance, their most recent three-game 'under' streak from March 26th to 31st saw all three contests total at least 231 points. Prior to that, a three-game 'under' streak from March 17th to 21st saw all three games reach at least 236 points. You get the idea. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
04-17-23 | Kings v. Oilers OVER 6.5 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Edmonton at 10 pm et on Monday. There's a good chance we'll end up seeing the total set at 7 as this series progresses, at least that's how I see this matchup playing out. The Kings were banged-up down the stretch with the absences of Gabriel Vilardi and Kevin Fiala looming large. Both remain questionable to start this series but I'm assuming they'll both be out for Game 1 on Monday. Nevertheless, the Kings did figure out down the stretch they're not going to be successful if they can't ramp up their offense, even without some key contributors. I think we saw a turning point of sorts in their 4-3 home loss to the Avalanche on April 8th. They ended up scoring 3, 3 and 5 goals over their final three games after scoring two goals or less in four of their previous six contests. Note that over its last four games, Los Angeles fired 32, 41, 28 and 36 shots on goal. It will need to find some offense to pose any sort of challenge to the high-flying Oilers. Edmonton averaged an impressive 4.0 goals per game over the course of the regular season while the Kings gave up 3.2 goals per contest - a shell of its former self from a defensive perspective. Note that the 'under' has actually cashed in the last two meetings between these teams. We've seen three straight matchups go 'under' the total just once going all the way back to April of 2017, covering a span of 28 meetings. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 19-8 with the Kings playing on the road seeking revenge for a loss by two goals or more against an opponent over the last three seasons, as is the case here after the Oilers won 3-1 in Los Angeles on April 4th. That situation has produced an average total of 7.0 goals. Also note that the 'over' is 12-3 with the Oilers playing at home after allowing two goals or less in consecutive games over the same stretch, which is the situation here, leading to an average total of 7.6 goals in that spot. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
04-17-23 | Warriors v. Kings UNDER 240 | Top | 106-114 | Win | 100 | 15 h 53 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Sacramento at 10 pm et on Monday. The first game in this series breezed 'over' the total thanks to a parade to the free throw line with the two teams attempting a combined 59 shots from the charity stripe. Even with that in mind, they still 'only' eclipsed the total we're working with on Monday by nine points. Note that the 'over' has now cashed in each of the Warriors last two games. They haven't posted three straight 'over' results since the first week of February and even during that stretch they didn't see three consecutive games go 'over' the total we're working with here. While neither team is known for its defense, it's worth noting that the Warriors have held 11 straight opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals while the Kings have limited five straight and eight of their last nine foes to that number or less. So in a sense we are dealing with a somewhat limited ceiling for the two offenses here. I certainly expect the Warriors to make some adjustments as they look to contain Malik Monk in particular after he went off in Game 1. On the flip side, Golden State could be without Jordan Poole for this game after he was limited due to injury in the series-opener. Gary Payton Jr. saw extended floor time with Poole struggling on Saturday with the former being more of a key defender than an offensive contributor. While the Warriors did shoot just 16-of-50 from three-point range on Saturday, that's not necessarily unexpected as they average 16 made threes per game on the road while the Kings have held the opposition to just 13 makes per game from beyond the arc here at home. Finally, I'll point out that we haven't seen consecutive matchups in this series go 'over' the total over the last 10 meetings. The last time that did occur was back in January and March of 2021. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-17-23 | Blue Jays v. Astros UNDER 8 | 2-9 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are coming off 'over' results on Sunday but I look for a different story to unfold as they match up in Houston on Monday. Kevin Gausman will take the ball for the visiting Blue Jays. He's off to a fine start to the campaign having posted a 2.57 FIP and 1.00 WHIP through his first three starts, allowing just 20-of-79 batters he's faced to reach base. With that said, he was visibly frustrated after allowing a pair of home runs (the first two he's given up this season) against the light-hitting Tigers in an otherwise fine outing last week. Keeping in mind, Gausman received A.L. Cy Young Award votes last year, logging a 2.38 FIP and 1.24 WHIP I expect the right-hander to keep up his strong pitching here. Cristian Javier will counter for Houston. He'll be looking to bounce back from his worst outing of the young season against the Pirates last week. Javier was of course a breakout star for the Astros last season, proving invaluable in the postseason to earn a lucrative five-year contract extension in the offseason. He had a fine Spring and still owns a solid 3.74 FIP and 1.18 WHIP through his first three regular season starts. While the hits have been falling in against him, I would anticipate him getting that sorted out sooner rather than later, noting that he has allowed just 5.9 hits per nine innings over the course of his 3+ year big league career. Note that despite his up-and-down start, Javier has actually allowed only 21-of-71 batters he's faced to reach base. Both teams kept their key bullpen arms fresh yesterday thanks to lopsided defeats. Blue Jays closer Jordan Romano should be available after suffering a rib contusion on Saturday. Note that the Jays 'pen has recorded a collective 3.30 ERA and 1.20 WHIP this season while the Astros relief corps has had little to do with the team's slow start, logging a respectable 3.95 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
04-16-23 | Lakers v. Grizzlies OVER 227 | 128-112 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Memphis at 3 pm et on Sunday. The Lakers were involved in an incredibly low-scoring game against the Timberwolves in the Play-In Tournament - a contest that reached only 210 total points despite being aided by overtime. Here, I expect a different story to unfold as they open the first round against the Grizzlies on Sunday afternoon. Memphis was a shell of its former self defensively down the stretch and I'm not convinced we see it simply 'flip the switch' here. The Grizzlies check in having allowed 10 of their last 11 opponents to knock down more than 40 field goals. Of those 11 opponents, six made good on 44 or more field goals. On the flip side, Memphis found its rhythm offensively, knocking down at least 40 field goals in 14 of its last 15 contests. Since March 15th, we've seen the Grizzlies post consecutive 'under' results only once (I point that out as their most recent game did stay 'under' the total) and only one of those two contests stayed 'under' the total we're working with on Sunday. The Lakers had an off shooting night against the T'Wolves last time out but were in line for some regression after making good on 45 or more field goals in each of their previous seven games. Defensively, the Lakers had yielded 40 or more made field goals in an incredible 16 straight games before holding the T'Wolves to only 36 on Tuesday (note that Minnesota was severely limited offensively in that game with Anthony Edwards banged-up and rendered ineffective and Rudy Gobert sidelined due to suspension). Los Angeles has allowed an average of 45-of-94 shooting on the road this season. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
04-16-23 | Guardians v. Nationals OVER 8.5 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland at Washington at 1:35 pm et on Sunday. While the scoring fizzled in the second half of the game, last night's contest between these two teams did find its way 'over' the total. I expect a similar result on Sunday as the Guardians look to wrap up a series sweep with ace Shane Bieber taking the ball against Patrick Corbin of the Nationals. Bieber has been terrific as expected in the early going this season. I do think some regression is in store, however, noting that he has posted a 2.52 FIP and 0.95 WHIP through his first three outings after logging a 2.87 FIP and 1.04 WHIP last year (he finished seventh in A.L. Cy Young Award voting). Note that the Nationals have faced their share of tough pitchers at home already this season with their previous two series' in the host role coming against the Braves and Rays. Yet they've still averaged 3.0 runs per game here at Nationals Park and 3.5 rpg when facing right-handed starting pitching, as will be the case today. It's also worth noting that the Guardians have used setup man James Karinchak and closer Emmanuel Clase in each of the last two games so they'll either be unavailable or see their effectiveness diminished on Sunday. On the flip side, much like last night against Chad Kuhl, the Guardians should have little trouble getting to Nats' starter Patrick Corbin. He checks in sporting a 6.15 FIP and 2.14 WHIP this season. Of the 71 batters he has faced, 30 have reached base. As I noted in yesterday's analysis of the Guardians, they have speed to burn and are ultra-aggressive on the basepaths and I'm confident we'll see them knock Corbin off his game early on Sunday. Behind Corbin is a pedestrian Nats' bullpen that has posted a collective 4.23 ERA and 1.27 WHIP with three saves converted and three blown this season. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
04-15-23 | Warriors v. Kings | 123-126 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento over Golden State at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. Most are expecting the Warriors to simply 'flip the switch' and play competitive basketball on the road in these playoffs but I'm not so easily convinced. Golden State actually had just nine wins in 39 road games before beating this same Kings squad (in a game where it rested most of its starters) and a down-trodden, injury-riddled Blazers team last week. Even in that win over the Kings, the Warriors still managed to get off only 78 field goal attempts. On the flip side, the Warriors, despite fighting for their playoff lives down the stretch, still allowed each of their last six opponents to hoist up at least 90 field goal attempts. The Kings figure to be poised to take advantage, noting that they average 45 made field goals per contest (on only 88 FG attempts per game) here at home this season. The Warriors won last week's meeting SU and ATS but haven't posted consecutive ATS victories in this series since late 2021. Here, we'll note that the Kings are 21-12 ATS off a loss this season and 12-1 ATS after losing consecutive games ATS, as is the case here. Take Sacramento (8*). | |||||||
04-15-23 | Guardians v. Nationals OVER 9 | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Washington at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. The 'under' cashed in the opener of this series last night as the Guardians prevailed by a 4-3 score in a well-pitched game from both sides. I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday as Cleveland sends Zach Plesac to the mound against Chad Kuhl of the Nationals. Plesac has posted rather pedestrian numbers throughout his 4+ year big league career. Things haven't gone well for the right-hander through two outings this year as he has recorded a 5.62 FIP and 1.75 WHIP. That includes a start on the road against the light-hitting A's in which he allowed six earned runs in a single inning of work. He did bounce back nicely in his home debut against the Mariners but I certainly don't anticipate seeing him completely shut down the Nationals here. Note that the Guardians used three of their best relievers in last night's game, Trevor Stephan, James Karinchak and closer Emmanuel Clase each logged an inning. While that doesn't mean they won't be available on Saturday, we could see diminished effectiveness. I expect Washington starter Chad Kuhl to have a tough time containing the Cleveland offense here. The Guardians put a ton of pressure on opposing pitchers thanks to their aggressive base-running and speed on the basepaths. That's not to mention the fact that they know how to work the counts and see a lot of pitches. Kuhl has logged a 7.37 FIP and 1.50 WHIP in two starts this season, allowing 16-of-44 batters to reach base. Behind Kuhl is an average-at-best Nats' bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a collective 4.40 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
04-14-23 | Cubs v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | 8-2 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Friday. I think this has the potential to be one of the more entertaining games on Friday's MLB board but not necessarily because it projects as high-scoring. We actually have a solid starting pitching matchup as the Cubs hand the ball to Justin Steele and the Dodgers counter with Noah Syndergaard. Steele had an impressive 2022 campaign, recording a 3.20 FIP and 1.35 WHIP. Command was an issue and has been through his first two outings this season as well but he's managed to limit the damage thanks to keeping his hits allowed down and strikeouts up. While Steele's last outing did find its way 'over' the total in a blowout win over the Rangers, he hasn't seen consecutive starts go 'over' the total since last June. It's a similar story for Syndergaard. His last start went 'over' the total but he's only posted consecutive 'over' results once since last June. Speaking of that last start, it was an ugly one as Syndergaard allowed six earned runs on eight hits over just four innings, clearly the D'Backs had his number seeing him for the second time in six days. That performance skewed his early season numbers as he was actually sharp in his debut, right here at home at Dodger Stadium, holding the same D'Backs to just one earned run over six innings. Both bullpens have been good but not great in the early going. I would certainly expect the Dodgers relief corps to rank among the best in baseball before too long. I like the fact that both teams are coming off an off day on Thursday given both bullpens have worked north of 40 innings already this season. Cubs and Dodgers relievers have combined to record an impressive 93:25 strikeout-to-walk ratio this season. Finally, we'll note that the 'under' is 14-4 in the Cubs last 18 games following an off day going back to last season, resulting in an average total of just 6.5 runs in that situation. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
04-14-23 | Mets -1.5 v. A's | 17-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York -1.5 runs over Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Friday. The A's actually had a bit of an offensive explosion over the final three games of their series in Baltimore but managed just one victory. Here, I look for the Oakland offense to go back in the tank as it returns home to cavernous O.co Coliseum to host the Mets. Kodai Senga will get his third big league start for the Mets. While his command hasn't necessarily been there just yet (six walks through 11 1/3 innings, there's no question he has been impressive, posting a 3.66 FIP and 1.06 WHIP, striking out 11.1 batters per nine innings. His counterpart on Friday will be James Kaprielian. I question whether the A's right-hander is long for a big league rotation at this point. He's been in the majors full-time since 2021 and has logged a 4.72 FIP and 1.32 WHIP. The book is effectively out on Kaprielian and I look for the Mets to be next in line to take advantage on Friday. Behind Kaprielian is an A's bullpen that doesn't even get a chance to catch its breath after another wild, high-scoring game in Baltimore yesterday. The A's have already logged 55 innings in relief, posting a collective 5.24 ERA and 1.47 WHIP and lost an arm to injury in Domingo Acevedo during the series in Baltimore. New York's 'pen is still missing closer Edwin Diaz but has been impressive nonetheless, recording a 3.72 ERA and 1.04 WHIP with three saves converted and none blown. Take New York -1.5 runs (8*). | |||||||
04-14-23 | Thunder +5.5 v. Wolves | 95-120 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Minnesota at 9:30 pm et on Friday. I just think the Timberwolves are a mess right now in all regards and don't really understand the logic behind them being favored by such a considerable margin in this play-in game against the pesky Thunder. Yes, Oklahoma City continues to struggle to contain opposing offenses. The Thunder prevailed on Wednesday in New Orleans despite allowing the Pelicans to knock down 42-of-87 field goal attempts. I'm not convinced the T'Wolves are as well-positioned to take advantage of Oklahoma City's current defensive transgressions, however. Anthony Edwards is a shell of his former self due to late-season injuries and shot a miserable 6-of-17 from the field in Tuesday's loss to the Lakers. It remains to be seen if Rudy Gobert will return after serving his one-game suspension as he deals with a bad back. The Thunder are a taxing opponent to face right now as they continue to push the pace, hoisting up 93, 97, 90 and 92 field goal attempts over their last four games. It's been a struggle for the T'Wolves to just get shots off let alone knock them down, attempting 85 or fewer field goals in four of their last five games including only 83 in Tuesday's overtime contest against the Lakers. Minnesota has picked a bad time to go in the tank offensively, making good on 41 or fewer field goals in six of its last seven games. It has also struggled to slow down the opposition, allowing 90 or more field goal attempts in seven straight contests (aided by overtime last time out). While the T'Wolves have taken three of four meetings with the Thunder this season they haven't covered the spread in consecutive matchups in this series since last season (they won the most recent meeting ATS on December 16th). Take Oklahoma City (8*). | |||||||
04-14-23 | Orioles -101 v. White Sox | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baltimore over Chicago at 7:10 pm et on Friday. It seems that every year the White Sox carry high hopes into the season residing in a seemingly manageable American League Central but here we are a couple of weeks into the season and they're already four games back of first place looking up at both the Guardians and Twins. Coming off consecutive losses in Minnesota and missing table-setter Tim Anderson due to injury, I look for them to fall short again as they open this series with the Orioles on Friday. Baltimore just took three of four games from Oakland, scoring 29 runs in the process. I look for it to keep up its hot streak at the plate here against Chicago starter Mike Clevinger. He has posted a 3.68 FIP but an ugly 1.55 WHIP through two outings, allowing 18-of-49 batters he has faced to reach base. Inconsistency has been Clevinger's calling card throughout his big league career and I expect that to be a storyline thorughout this season as well. Behind Clevinger is a White Sox bullpen that has been among baseball's worst so far this season, recording a collective 7.01 ERA and 1.83 WHIP in 43 2/3 innings. That's in stark contrast to the O's relief corps' which has posted a 3.97 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 54 1/3 innings. I don't know that too much will be asked of Baltimore's 'pen in this one with Tyler Wells starting. He has posted a 4.30 FIP but an impressive 0.55 WHIP through two outings (one in long relief) spanning 11 innings so far this season. Only six of the 39 batters Wells has faced have managed to reach base. Across parts of three big league seasons, Wells has allowed just 7.1 hits, 1.4 home runs and 2.1 walks per nine innings, only lagging behind Clevinger in one of those departments (home runs allowed). Take Baltimore (8*). | |||||||
04-13-23 | Flyers v. Blackhawks UNDER 6 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Chicago at 8:35 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams are coming off victories two nights ago with the Flyers scoring four goals in an overtime win over the Blue Jackets and the Blackhawks dashing the Penguins playoff hopes with a stunning 5-2 road win. Offensive success hasn't been commonplace for either squad lately, however. Philadelphia has been held to three goals or less in regulation time in seven straight games. Chicago has scored three goals or less in 12 of its last 14 contests. These two teams last met back in January with the Blackhawks skating to a 4-1 road win. Note that the 'under' is 12-5 with the Flyers seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent this season, leading to an average total of just 5.3 goals in that situation. We've seen Philadelphia suffer a considerable drop-off in offensive production on the road this season as it averages just 2.3 goals per game away from home compared to its 2.7 gpg overall scoring average. While Chicago has seen the 'over' cash in each of its last three contests, it has previously posted four straight 'over' results just once this season and that came back in mid-November. The 'under' has gone 6-1 with the Blackhawks coming off three or more consecutive 'over' results this season. The Flyers have posted back-to-back 'overs' but have reeled off more than two 'over' results in a row only once since February 21st, that coming in a five-game streak in mid-March. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-13-23 | Twins v. Yankees -140 | 11-2 | Loss | -140 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Minnesota at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Twins managed to pull out a series victory over the division-rival White Sox after dropping the opener earlier in the week and they did it thanks in large part to their pitching staff. Minnesota is playing with a fairly slim margin for error right now as it continues to deal with a number of key injuries. The Twins could be without Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, Joey Gallo, Max Kepler, Alex Kirillof and Jorge Polanco for this game with only Buxton and Correa even having an outside chance at starting. Not surprisingly, the Twinkies have plated just 11 runs over their last four games with some help from extra innings over that stretch. While I do like Minnesota starter Joe Ryan, I can't help but feel he'll be asked to do a little too much on Thursday. Note that he's made just one previous start against the Yankees, that coming last September in a 7-1 defeat here in the Bronx. Ryan has already allowed two home runs in as many starts this season despite those two outings coming in predominantly 'pitcher's parks' in Kansas City and Minnesota. While the Twins bullpen is outstanding, it did use two of its key late-inning arms in Griffin Jax and Jhoan Duran in each of the last two days. The Yankees will hand the ball to impressive rookie start Jhony Brito. We won with the Yanks in his most recent start in Baltimore last Saturday. While he didn't have his best stuff in that contest, he still allowed just one earned run over five innings. Brito has posted a 2.70 FIP and 0.80 WHIP through two big league outings this season. Like the Twins, the Yankees have an elite bullpen that enters Thursday's action sporting a collective 1.87 ERA and 1.08 WHIP with four saves converted and only one blown. Take New York (8*). | |||||||
04-13-23 | Red Sox v. Rays UNDER 8 | Top | 3-9 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 52 m | Show |
A.L. Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Tampa Bay at 1:10 pm et on Thursday. I think we're dealing with a bit of 'small sample size-itis' when it comes to the two starting pitchers in Thursday's series-finale between the Red Sox and Rays. Corey Kluber probably isn't as bad as his early returns indicate while Jeffrey Springs probably isn't quite as good (although I still have him pegged as an elite starter this season). With that said, I believe this total will prove too high after we saw the last two contests in this series sail 'over' the number. Kluber had an awful season debut on Opening Day against the Orioles but did rebound to work five effective innings against the upstart Pirates last time out. Here, he'll pitch on seven days' rest and I do think that helps his cause as he faces a familiar foe in the Rays (who he pitched for last season). Springs has been lights out through his first two starts, recording a 1.40 FIP and 0.54 WHIP in 13 shutout innings. Of course, he's faced the Tigers and A's - two of the American League's weakest offensive clubs. With that being said, I do think he can keep his hot start going against a Red Sox lineup that has proven to be top-heavy to say the least. Both bullpens got touched up in last night's wild 9-7 Rays victory but had previously been solid in the early going this season. Boston entered last night's play with a collective 3.09 bullpen ERA and 1.33 WHIP. The Rays relief corps went into Wednesday's action sporting an impressive 1.57 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-12-23 | Thunder v. Pelicans OVER 226 | Top | 123-118 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Oklahoma City and New Orleans at 9:30 pm et on Wednesday. Both of these teams enter this play-in matchup on the heels of consecutive 'under' results but I look for a different story to unfold on Wednesday night in New Orleans. The Thunder have been relentlessly pushing the pace regardless who has been in or out of the lineup in recent weeks, hoisting up 90 or more field goal attempts in 11 of their last 15 games and 92 or more in 10 of those contests. Unfortunately it has come at the expense of their defensive play it seems as they've allowed 12 of their last 13 opponents to knock down 40 or more field goals. While not known for their offensive prowess, the Pelicans appear well-positioned to take advantage having made good on 40 or more field goals in 14 of their last 18 games overall. While New Orleans got into this play-in tournament thanks in large part to its terrific defense down the stretch, we did see a three-game lull in which it yielded 42, 46 and 50 made field goals earlier this month. It followed that up by holding the Knicks and T'Wolves to just 38 and 39 made field goals in its final two regular season contests but those two opponents still managed to score 105 and 113 points. The Pelicans figure to have their hands full here, noting that the Thunder have averaged an impressive average of 124.5 points per game when coming off four or five ATS losses in their last six games this season, as is the case here. Note that the 'over' has gone 11-3 in that situation, resulting in an average total of 243.7 points scored. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
04-12-23 | Bulls +5.5 v. Raptors | 109-105 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Toronto at 7 pm et on Wednesday. The Raptors managed to close out their regular season on a high note by blowing out the undermanned Bucks on Sunday, snapping a two-game skid in the process. I'm just not sold on this Toronto team, noting that nothing seemed to come easy for it all season, going an even 40-40 ATS (excluding pushes) and outscoring the opposition by an average margin of just 1.5 points. The Bulls were almost a mirror-image during the regular season, going 42-39 ATS while outscoring opponents by 1.3 points on average. I fully expect a tightly-contested affair between these familiar foes on Wednesday and will grab all the points I can get with the underdog Bulls. Note that Toronto did take the most recent meeting 104-98 here at home in late February. That's notable as the Raptors haven't won consecutive games against the Bulls since reeling off an incredible 12 straight victories in the series from 2017 to 2020. They haven't posted two ATS wins in a row over Chicago since March and October of 2019. Thanks to a defense that checks in having held 10 of its last 13 opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals, I do think the Bulls are capable of hanging with anyone on any given night. The Raps have been similarly tough to break down defensively but that only lends itself to a reasonably low-scoring game here and in that situation, I'm comfortable grabbing the generous helping of points with Chicago. Note that Toronto is just 9-21 ATS when playing at home off a double-digit win over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by just 0.5 points on average in that situation. Take Chicago (8*). | |||||||
04-12-23 | Mariners -104 v. Cubs | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Seattle over Chicago at 2:20 pm et on Wednesday. The Cubs have gotten the better of the Mariners in the first two games of this series but I think Seattle has the right pitcher on the mound to stem the tide and end its three-game losing skid on Wednesday afternoon at Wrigley Field. Logan Gilbert will take the ball for the Mariners. We cashed one of our bigger plays of the season in a similar situation last year as Gilbert took the ball in a matinee affair against the White Sox in Chicago and helped Seattle avoid the sweep with a terrific performance. I expect a similar outcome here. Gilbert had a fine Spring and he's picked up right where he left off in the regular season, recording a 3.01 FIP and 1.30 WHIP in 10 innings of work. Behind Gilbert is a Mariners bullpen that got roughed up last night but has been solid in the early going this season, entering last night's action sporting a collective 2.76 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. Thanks to getting three innings from seldom-used Jose Rodriguez in mop-up duty the M's 'pen isn't in all that awful shape rest-wise entering Wednesday's matinee affair. Marcus Stroman will get the start for the Cubs. He's turned back the clock in a sense, following up an outstanding Spring with two fine outings to open the regular season (2.82 FIP and 0.92 WHIP). I can't help but feel regression is coming, however, noting that Stroman recorded a pedestrian 3.76 FIP and 1.15 WHIP last season. The Cubs have used key bullpen arm Mark Leiter Jr. in each of the last two nights so you have to figure he'll be unavailable on Wednesday. Chicago's bullpen entered last night's game having logged a collective 4.55 ERA and 1.22 WHIP with one save converted and two blown on the campaign. Take Seattle (10*). | |||||||
04-11-23 | Cardinals -162 v. Rockies | Top | 9-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on St. Louis over Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Cardinals have run into some tough pitching after a hot start to the season (offensively at least), recording single-digit hits in four of their last five games. In fact, they enter this game on a 1-6 slide but I look for them to turn things around on Tuesday. Cards starter Miles Mikolas is off to a rough start himself, allowing 19 hits and 10 earned runs in just 9 1/3 innings so far this season. With that being said, things probably aren't as bad as his inflated 9.64 ERA would seem to indicate as he has actually posted a 2.86 FIP. Keep in mind, he had an outstanding Spring, not allowing a single earned run in three starts, covering a span of 12 innings. While Coors Field isn't exactly an ideal park to bounce back in, I'm confident Mikolas can pitch well enough to give his team a chance on Tuesday. St. Louis will get a chance to tee off on a left-hander for the first time since it delivered a 6-0 win over Eric Lauer and the Brewers on Saturday. The Cards check in 49-25, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.5 runs when facing left-handed starting pitching over the last 2+ seasons. St. Louis is also an incredible 46-19 in its last 65 games as a road favorite, outscoring the opposition by 1.9 runs on average along the way. Here, the Cards will face Rockies southpaw Kyle Freeland. He's off to an admittedly strong start - the polar opposite of Mikolas after Freeland endured a difficult Spring that saw him post an ERA approaching six and a 1.93 WHIP in 9 1/3 innings. I don't think we should get too excited about the fact that Freeland hasn't allowed an earned run through two starts as he has posted a less-than-impressive 4.3 strikeouts per nine innings and his 3.16 FIP tells a different story compared to his flawless ERA. This will be the Cards third time seeing Freeland since the start of last season, connecting for nine earned runs on 17 hits over 10 1/3 innings over those two previous contests. The St. Louis bullpen is worth betting on in my opinion even if its numbers have been rather pedestrian so far (3.53 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in 35 2/3 innings). The Rockies 'pen has struggled to the tune of a 5.31 ERA and 1.48 WHIP, not to mention the fact that it has already been overworked, logging north of 40 innings collectively. Take St. Louis (10*). | |||||||
04-11-23 | Hawks +5 v. Heat | Top | 116-105 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
Play-In Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Miami at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. The Heat easily disposed of the Hawks in the opening round of last year's Playoffs and while it's been a long time coming, Atlanta finally has a chance to get its revenge when it really matters in Tuesday's Play-In Tournament opener. Yes, these two teams met four times during the regular season with Miami taking three of those four contests as well. The Hawks know they can hang with the Heat though. Their back-to-back losses here in Miami in early March came by a combined 10 points. Interestingly, the Heat were favored by only 2.5 points in the latter of those two contests. Here, Atlanta is arguably healthier than it was then - the healthiest it has been all season in fact. While the Hawks do come in off consecutive losses, their final regular season affair was a throwaway game against the Celtics where their starters sat. Prior to dropping their final two regular season contests they had won three games in a row. They enter this game having made good on 43 or more field goals in five straight games and more than 40 in an incredible 17 of their last 18 contests. While the Heat are known for their defense, they actually haven't held an opponent to fewer than 100 points since February 27th. You would have to go all the way back to mid-January to find the last time they held an opponent under 100 points and won by more than four points. Interestingly, Miami was actually held under 100 points itself in three of its last 11 regular season contests. While the Hawks are by no means an elite defensive team and haven't been in recent years, you would have to go back a whopping 18 meetings in this series to find the last time Miami knocked down more than 43 field goals. The Hawks breezed past that mark in two of the last three matchups in this series. Finally, we'll note that Atlanta is 16-4 ATS when coming off consecutive ATS losses this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an impressive average margin of 10.0 points. Meanwhile, the Heat check in a miserable 1-9 ATS when coming off four wins in their last five games this season, which is the situation here, outscored by 8.3 points on average in that spot. Take Atlanta (10*). | |||||||
04-11-23 | Maple Leafs v. Lightning -130 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -130 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Lightning are reeling right now, losers of three games in a row, all on the road mind you. The Bolts are 27-7-5 on home ice this season and here, we'll note that they're 37-9 when playing at home off a loss over the last three seasons, averaging 4.0 goals and outscoring opponents by 1.8 goals on average in that situation. Over the same stretch, Tampa Bay has also gone 28-7 when seeking revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent, as is the case here, allowing just 2.1 goals and outscoring the opposition by 1.6 goals on average in that spot. The Maple Leafs check in off a 2-1 win over the Panthers in Sunrise last night. As I've noted many times before, sweeping a two-game trip to Florida is never easy and I expect the Leafs to find that out once again tonight. Note that the Leafs have won their last two games but have gone 9-14 when coming off consecutive victories this season, outscored by 0.3 goals on average in that situation. Toronto is also a long-term 76-100 after holding three straight opponents to two goals or fewer, as is the case here. With neither team able to move up or down in the standings, the first round playoff series between them is already locked-in. With that being said, the Bolts will certainly be eager to right the ship in their final two regular season contests and I expect them to do just that right here. Take Tampa Bay (10*). | |||||||
04-10-23 | Canucks v. Kings -177 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Vancouver at 10:35 pm et on Monday. The Kings have now lost three games in a row - only the second time all season they've done so. On the previous occasion, they bounced back with a 5-2 victory over the Sharks in their next game. Here, they'll have the opportunity to rebound against another non-playoff bound opponent in the Canucks. I look for them to take full advantage. Note that Los Angeles is 21-14 after losing five or six of its last seven games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 0.5 goals in that situation. Better still, the Kings are 18-9 after losing three of their last four contests over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.7 goals on average in that spot. Finally, they're 9-1 after allowing four goals or more in consecutive games this season, which is also the situation here, outscoring opponents by 1.3 goals on average along the way. Take Los Angeles (8*). | |||||||
04-10-23 | Dodgers -148 v. Giants | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Monday. The Dodgers had a rough weekend in Arizona, dropping three straight games, allowing double-digit runs in the most recent two setbacks. They have the right guy on the mound to get them back on track on Monday in Julio Urias. He was good but not great in the Spring but has ramped up quickly in the regular season, recording a 1.65 FIP and 0.75 WHIP through two starts, spanning 12 innings of work. Urias faced the Giants five times last season, allowing only three earned runs in 30 innings. Logan Webb will counter for San Francisco. He's been solid through two outings as well but his numbers certainly don't stand up to Urias', with a 3.40 FIP and 1.36 WHIP. The Dodgers should welcome the opportunity to face Webb after tagging him for 13 earned runs across four starts last season. While we've seen a couple of offensive breakouts from the Giants this season, I do think it's going to be a struggle for them to manufacture offense on most nights. We certainly saw that against the Royals over the weekend as they were barely able to salvage Sunday's series-finale with an eighth-inning rally. Here, they'll be in tough against a Dodgers bullpen that is in line for a bounce-back series, having logged a 4.68 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in a reasonable 32 2/3 innings. The Giants 'pen has recorded a 5.40 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in 30 frames so far this season. Take Los Angeles (8*). | |||||||
04-10-23 | A's v. Orioles OVER 8.5 | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Oakland and Baltimore at 6:35 pm et on Monday. This game pits a matchup of two offenses looking to explode after getting held down by superior pitching over the weekend. The A's were completely shut down by Rays starters Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen and that certainly wasn't unexpected. Keep in mind, Oakland had plated at least four runs in four straight games prior to those shutout losses. The Orioles couldn't get anything going against Yankees impressive rookie Jhony Brito and Nestor Cortes Jr. They scored just four runs across those two contests after plating seven in a one-run victory on Friday. JP Sears will take the ball for the A's on Monday. He got off to a promising start with the Yankees last season but it seemed that the book was out on him as the season went on as he recorded a 4.70 FIP and 1.48 WHIP in 48 innings pitched with the A's. His counterpart on Monday will be Kyle Gibson. His numbers have gotten progressively worse over the last two seasons and he's not exactly off to a banner start this year either. Gibson has posted a 4.73 FIP through his first two starts, allowing six earned runs in 12 innings of work. Note that the 'over' is 74-49 all-time (average of 10.0 total runs per game) with Gibson pitching at home and now he moves to a hitter-friendly park in Baltimore. The two bullpens in this matchup have been a mixed bag this season. The A's 'pen checks in sporting a 4.46 ERA and 1.40 WHIP after getting roughed up by the Rays over the weekend. The O's relief corps' has posted a 3.93 ERA and 1.11 WHIP but has already blown a pair of saves. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
04-09-23 | Rangers v. Cubs UNDER 8.5 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Texas and Chicago at 2:20 pm et on Sunday. We saw a much higher-scoring game than expected in this matchup yesterday as the Cubs tacked on seven runs over their final three turns at bat in a 10-3 rout. Here, I'm anticipating a much lower-scoring affair as the Rangers send Jon Gray to the hill against Jameson Taillon of the Cubs. Gray had a terrific first season with the Rangers last year, posting a 3.80 FIP and 1.13 WHIP. To say he excelled in the Spring this year would be an understatement as he logged a 1.02 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in 17 2/3 innings of work. While he wasn't overly sharp in his first regular season outing, he did minimize the damage, allowing just two earned runs over 6 1/3 innings. It's a similar story for Cubs offseason acquisition Taillon. He had a strong Spring, posting a 0.76 WHIP in 18 1/3 innings. Last season he recorded a 3.94 FIP and 1.13 WHIP with the Yankees. In his Cubs regular season debut last week, Taillon got worked over a bit over four innings, yielding three earned runs on seven hits. I'm confident we'll see him bounce back here as he makes his second start of the campaign at Wrigley Field. While things fell apart for the Rangers bullpen yesterday, it had been one of the strongest relief corps' in baseball in the early stages of the season and I'm not sure too much will be asked of it here given Gray's ability to work deep into the game. The Cubs 'pen has logged a less than impressive collective ERA but entered yesterday's game sporting a 1.15 WHIP in 21 2/3 innings. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-09-23 | Red Sox v. Tigers +106 | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit over Boston at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. The Red Sox have taken the first two games in this series in lopsided fashion but I look for the Tigers to answer back and avoid the sweep in Sunday's series finale. Kutter Crawford will take the ball for Boston. He was good, but certainly not great, during the Spring as he logged a 4.15 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. The wheels came off rather quickly in his regular season debut as he was tagged for seven earned runs in just four innings with 10 of 22 batters he faced reaching base. Crawford has yet to really show he can excel at the big league level after posting a 4.34 FIP and 1.42 WHIP in his rookie campaign last year. Matt Boyd had a terrific Spring and while he labored through 4 1/3 innings in his first regular season outing against the Astros, he did limit the damage giving up only two earned runs. Boyd showed promise in his last season with the Tigers in 2021 before an injury-shortened 2022 campaign with the Mariners saw him work just north of 13 innings. Boston's bullpen holds the edge based on early season numbers but has already been overworked, logging 36 2/3 innings through eight games. Take Detroit (8*). | |||||||
04-08-23 | Avalanche v. Kings +111 | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Colorado at 10:35 pm et on Saturday. It's been a struggle for the Kings over the last couple of games as they sorely miss the likes of Kevin Fiala and Mikey Anderson who are among those sidelined with injuries as we wind down the regular season. The Avalanche are dealing with injuries of their own and off three consecutive victories, I believe they're in for a letdown on Saturday. The Kings are still 25-14 on home ice this season where they've averaged an impressive 3.6 goals per game. Here, we'll note that they're 14-7 when coming off a loss by three goals or more against a division opponent over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.7 goals in that spot. They're also an impressive 10-2 when coming off consecutive losses this season, averaging 4.1 goals per game and outscoring the opposition by 1.3 goals on average in that situation. Take Los Angeles (8*). | |||||||
04-08-23 | Blue Jays v. Angels -109 | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Toronto at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. While I do expect Blue Jays starter Jose Berrios to pitch better than he did in his regular season debut against the Royals, I'm not convinced we'll see him out-duel a still-underrated Tyler Anderson on Saturday night in Anaheim. Berrios generally does bounce back from bad performances but this is still a tricky spot after the Angels tagged him for six earned runs in just 2 1/3 innings in this ballpark last May. Berrios didn't have a great Spring, logging a 4.30 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 14 2/3 innings. In stark contrast, Anderson posted a 1.35 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in 13 1/3 Spring innings and picked up right where he left off in his first regular season start, allowing only six of 24 batters to reach base over six shutout innings against Oakland. While I'll give the Blue Jays bullpen the slight edge, the gap isn't perhaps as wide as you might expect with the Angels relief corps having posted a collective 4.30 ERA and 1.13 WHIP so far this season. The Halos 'pen has also been asked to work just 23 innings through seven games which is certainly a positive. Take Los Angeles (8*). | |||||||
04-08-23 | Yankees -120 v. Orioles | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Baltimore at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. I think we can buy low with rookie starter Jhony Brito and the Yankees on Saturday as they look to get back at the Orioles after dropping yesterday's series-opener by a 7-6 score. Brito was impressive during the Spring as he posted a 2.08 ERA and 0.92 WHIP, allowing only 12-of-52 batters to reach base in 13 innings of work. He picked up right where he left off in his first regular season outing, yielding just two hits and no walks over five shutout innings against the Giants. Cole Irvin joined the Orioles by way of the A's in the offseason. He has proven very hittable over the course of his young career, allowing 9.5 hits per nine innings. That continued in the Spring as he was tagged for 10.5 hits per nine frames in 14 1/3 innings logged. His regular season debut didn't go so well either as he lasted only four innings and gave up six earned runs on eight hits against the Red Sox. While the Yankees bullpen has posted the considerably better ERA, I do think the two relief corps' are more or less a wash so far this season. With that being said, I'm confident the Yankees can persevere in this bounce-back spot as they avoid losing consecutive games for the first time this season. Take New York (8*). | |||||||
04-08-23 | A's v. Rays UNDER 8 | Top | 0-11 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
A.L. Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Oakland and Tampa Bay at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. There's going to be a wide range of outcomes to deal with every time A's starter Shintaro Fujinami takes the ball in the early going this season. His first big league outing didn't go so well as he couldn't make it through three innings against the Angels, allowing eight earned runs on five hits and three walks. I do think he can bounce back here, however, noting that he has tremendous stuff, but needs to find some consistency. The Rays offense exploded in a blowout victory last night, paced by a Isaac Paredes grand slam. Here, they'll turn to Jeffrey Springs to start Game 2 of this series. Springs is one of the most underrated starters in baseball in my opinion. He had an incredible 2022 campaign, posting a 3.04 FIP and 1.07 WHIP in 135 1/3 innings. His first start this season was a gem as he allowed just one walk over six otherwise perfect innings, striking out 12 along the way. That comes on the heels of a phenomenal Spring that saw him toss 14 shutout frames. Both bullpens have been sharp in the early going this season with the A's relief corps posting a 3.31 ERA and 1.35 WHIP and the Rays 'pen logging a 2.16 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-07-23 | Nationals v. Rockies OVER 11 | 10-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Friday. Yesterday's series-opener produced a grand total of one run as the Rockies delivered a rare shutout victory behind a terrific pitching performance from Kyle Freeland. I expect nothing of the sort on Friday as Colorado sends Jose Urena to the mound against MacKenzie Gore of the Nationals. Gore faced the Rockies twice last season as a member of the Padres, including a start here at Coors Field where he allowed three home runs and eight earned runs in just four innings in a 10-4 loss. In his 2023 debut, Gore limited the damage in an eventual 4-1 home win over the Braves, but did struggle with his command, issuing four walks over 5 1/3 innings. That's been a common theme as he allowed 4.8 walks per nine innings and posted a 1.47 WHIP in his rookie campaign a year ago. It's a wonder that Jose Urena is still in a big league rotation. He logged a 4.65 FIP and 1.57 WHIP splitting time with the Brewers and Rockies last year. He struggled in the Spring with a 6.52 ERA and 1.35 WHIP and then labored through 2 1/3 innings, allowing four earned runs in his first regular season outing against the Padres. Neither bullpen inspires much confidence in this matchup. The Nationals relief corps has been the better of the two but hasn't enjoyed an off day since last Friday. The Rockies 'pen checks in sporting a collective 5.73 ERA and 1.46 WHIP but was helped out by Freeland working deep into yesterday's contest. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
04-07-23 | Cardinals v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Friday. I do like the Brewers in this matchup but I think they're being priced appropriately so will go with a play on the total instead. Cardinals starter Jack Flaherty struggled mightily with his command in his first start of the campaign, walking seven Blue Jays batters while hitting another over five innings. With that being said, he didn't allow a hit in that contest and faced less than ideal conditions on a cold, windy day in St. Louis. Here, he'll look to bounce back in perfect conditions indoors in Milwaukee, noting that the Brewers are probably in line for some regression at the plate after racking up 35 runs over their last four games. Even after a rough Spring, not to mention a laborous 2022 campaign, I'm not ready to give up on Flaherty just yet as he still owns a career 3.94 FIP and 1.11 WHIP and it's not as if his velocity has fallen off a cliff despite shoulder issues. Countering Flaherty will be Brewers co-ace Brandon Woodruff. He was terrific in his first start of the season, allowing just one earned run on three hits over six innings against the Cubs. Woodruff had a solid Spring as well, logging a sparkling 0.83 WHIP in 15 2/3 innings. While he didn't factor into the All-Star Game or National League Cy Young voting last season, there was certainly nothing wrong with a 3.08 FIP and 1.07 WHIP. Both bullpens have been among the best in baseball in the early going this season with the Cards relief corps logging a collective 3.24 ERA and 1.20 WHIP and the Brewers putting together a 1.33 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. Both will also have all hands on deck after an off day on Thursday. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
04-07-23 | Raptors v. Celtics OVER 222.5 | Top | 102-121 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Toronto and Boston at 7:40 pm et on Friday. We saw a very low-scoring game by today's NBA standards between these two teams on this same floor two nights ago as the Celtics scrapped their way to a 97-93 victory in a tough back-to-back situation. Here, I expect a lot more offense as the two teams get ready for the postseason but perhaps lack defensive intensity with little to play for at this point. The Raptors will certainly want to get back on track offensively after a dismal showing on Wednesday. They shot 6-of-33 from three-point range in that contest, noting that they average 11 made threes per game this season. The pace was still there as they hoisted up 90 field goal attempts in the loss. Note that they've gotten off 90 or more field goal attempts in five of their last seven games overall. The Celtics are coming off consecutive poor offensive performances, including a 38-of-91 showing from the field in Philadelphia on Tuesday. Like the Raptors, the Celtics have continued to push the pace here late in the season, hoisting up 89 or more FG attempts in each of their last eight contests. While Boston is thought of as an elite defensive team, that hasn't necessarily been the case lately as it has allowed five of its last six opponents to get off 90 or more FG attempts and allows an average of 42 made field goals per game at home this season. The C's could be without two of their top defenders on Friday with Derrick White and Marcus Smart questionable to play as they employ some 'load management' in the late going. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
04-07-23 | Astros v. Twins -120 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
A.L. Game of the Week. My selection is on Minnesota over Houston at 4:10 pm et on Friday. If the Twins are going to be true contenders in the American League this season, this is a good early 'measuring stick' series for them at home against the Astros. I like them to take the opener on Friday night with Sonny Gray taking the ball against Jose Urquidy. Gray hasn't received many accolades but he's pitched exceptionally well over the last few seasons in particular. Last year, Gray logged a 3.40 FIP and 1.13 WHIP. He had a terrific Spring, posting a 1.86 ERA and 0.72 WHIP in 9 2/3 innings and while his command wasn't necessarily there in his regular season debut he did battle through it to work five innings, allowing just three hits and no earned runs against the Royals. He'll obviously face a tougher challenge here but I'm confident he'll be up for it. Urquidy has been a bit of an enigma for the Astros. Last year he posted a less than impressive 4.60 FIP but a solid 1.17 WHIP and that's been about par for the course for him over his 4+ year big league career. Urquidy didn't have a great Spring and followed that up with a shaky first regular season outing, allowing seven hits and three earned runs including two home runs in only four innings against the White Sox. While the Astros bullpen has been solid in the early going this season, it has already been overworked, logging 28 1/3 innings. Contrast that with the Twins relief corps, which has been asked to work just 18 2/3 innings, recording a collective 3.37 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Take Minnesota (10*). | |||||||
04-06-23 | Dodgers -144 v. Diamondbacks | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Arizona at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. The D'Backs have hung tough through their first six games this season, managing to split a pair of road series' against tonight's opponent, the Dodgers, and the Padres. While I do think the Snakes can surprise in the N.L. West this season, I still feel there's a considerable gap between these two clubs and will back the Dodgers and starter Dustin May in a 'revenge' spot on Thursday. May was masterful in his season debut against these same D'Backs last weekend but was ultimately saddled with a no-decision in a 2-1 loss. After a terrific Spring, May picked up right where he left off, tossing seven innings of three-hit shutout ball against Arizona. Note that May has only gotten limited work in during the early stages of his big league career but when he's healthy, he's capable of big things, as he showed during his rookie campaign back in 2020 when he finished top-five in National League Rookie of the Year voting. Merrill Kelly will counter for the D'Backs. We saw an alarming trend emerge during his Spring starts as he issued four walks in only seven innings of work and that lack of command seems to have carried over to the regular season as well as he handed out four free passes in just 3 2/3 innings against the Dodgers last weekend. Los Angeles has now seen Kelly a whopping six times since the start of last season. Last Friday marked the first time in any of those six games that Arizona actually managed to pick up a victory. Kelly has allowed 29 earned runs on 53 hits in his last 38 2/3 innings pitched against Los Angeles. Finally, I'll point out that the Snakes bullpen has recorded a collective 4.77 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 22 2/3 innings this season while the Dodgers relief corps has posted a sparkling 2.84 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. Take Los Angeles (8*). | |||||||
04-06-23 | Kings +120 v. Golden Knights | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Vegas at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. The Kings came out flat and ultimately fell by a 3-1 score at home against the red hot Oilers two nights ago. The fact that Los Angeles was able to stay in that game at all, tying proceedings at a goal apiece early in the third period, was impressive after it had just clinched a playoff berth three nights earlier with a win in Vancouver. Here, we'll note that the Kings check in 20-12 when coming off a loss this season and 24-15 when following up a defeat by two goals or more over the last two seasons, averaging 3.2 goals per game and outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.5 goals in that latter situation. The Golden Knights continue to pace the Pacific Division but are just 2-3 over their last five games. While the Kings have tightened things up defensively down the stretch, the Knights have yielded three goals or more in five of their last six contests. Of course, that might have something to do with the fact that they're missing the top two goaltenders on their depth chart, not to mention stud defenseman Shea Theodore due to injuries. The Kings have injury concerns of their own with Kevin Fiala and Mikey Anderson among those missing but I look for them to rally once again here, noting the importance of potentially catching the Oilers for second-place in the Pacific Division, and home ice advantage in the first round. The Kings currently sit three points back with four games remaining (including a game-in-hand). Take Los Angeles (8*). | |||||||
04-06-23 | Blazers v. Spurs OVER 230 | Top | 127-129 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Portland and San Antonio at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams have struggled at the best of times defensively and neither has much incentive to ratchet up the defensive intensity for Thursday's 'meaningless' matchup in San Antonio. With that being said, both teams are coming off 'under' results last time out and I feel that's affording us a very reasonable total to work with on Thursday. The Blazers have actually found some rhythm offensively despite missing so many key contributors. They've knocked down 40, 43 and 42 field goals over their last three games and have been comfortable pushing the pace more than they had been previously, hoisting up 85, 93 and 97 field goal attempts in those most recent three contests. They'll have a prime opportunity to build on those encouraging performances in San Antonio on Thursday as the Spurs have been sieve-like defensively, allowing 43 or more made field goals in an incredible 12 straight and 15 of their last 16 games overall. The only reason they gave up 'only' 43 made field goals last time out was due to the lopsided nature of their game against the Suns (Phoenix attempted only 89 field goals). In what projects as a much closer affair here, we can anticipate the Blazers getting well into the 90's in terms of FG attempts. The Spurs had their streak of three straight games knocking down at least 42 field goals snapped last time out. They'll take a major step down in class after facing the Suns in that matchup, however. Portland has allowed six of its last seven opponents to make good on at least 41 field goals despite four of those foes getting off 87 or fewer FG attempts. Note that the Spurs have hoisted up 90 or more FG attempts in seven straight and 10 of their last 11 games overall. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
04-06-23 | Padres v. Braves UNDER 7.5 | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Diego and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Thursday. This game features one of the best pitching matchups on Thursday's board as the Padres send left-hander Blake Snell to the hill against super-soph Spencer Strider of the Braves. Snell has settled in nicely since joining the Padres prior to the 2021 campaign. He recorded a 3.82 FIP and 1.32 WHIP in 128 2/3 innings that season before improving on those numbers with a 2.80 FIP and 1.20 WHIP in 128 frames of work last year. Snell has the benefit of having faced the Braves only once before with that start coming back in 2018 (he allowed one earned run in 6 1/3 innings in a 1-0 loss). Spencer Strider finished second in National League Rookie of the Year voting last year and probably should have received votes for the Cy Young as well as he posted a sparkling 1.83 FIP and 0.96 WHIP in 131 2/3 innings. Like Snell against the Braves, Strider will have the element of surprise working in his favor here having never faced the Padres previously. The Braves bullpen has been outstanding in the early going this season and while the Padres relief corps' has struggled, it does have the advantage of having had yesterday off so it will be all hands on deck for Thursday's series-opener. All three meetings here in Atlanta last season went 'over' the total but I expect a different story to unfold on Thursday. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
04-06-23 | Giants +122 v. White Sox | 16-6 | Win | 122 | 5 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco over Chicago at 2:10 pm et on Thursday. Alex Wood finally gets his first start of the season for the Giants on Thursday and I look for him to outduel White Sox veteran Lance Lynn. Wood had a fine Spring, posting a 3.60 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. Last season, he recorded in inflated 5.10 ERA but that didn't tell the whole story as he logged a solid 3.76 FIP and 1.24 WHIP. Lynn labored to the tune of a 4.30 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 14 2/3 Spring innings and didn't pitch particularly well in his regular season debut either, allowing just two earned runs over 5 2/3 innings but posting a 6.02 FIP. Behind Lynn is a White Sox bullpen that has logged a collective 7.97 ERA and 2.16 WHIP in 20 1/3 innings of work this season. The Giants 'pen hasn't been lights out either, posting a collective 4.96 ERA and 1.53 WHIP but at least has the benefit of being relatively fresh, working just 16 1/3 innings to date. Take San Francisco (8*). | |||||||
04-05-23 | Bulls +8 v. Bucks | Top | 92-105 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
Central Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. We'll fade the Bucks off consecutive double-digit wins over the 76ers and Wizards as they return home in a back-to-back spot on Wednesday night. Chicago is in a back-to-back situation of its own after dropping a lopsided home decision against the Hawks last night. I can't help but feel the Bulls overlooked a Trae Young-less Atlanta squad. The Hawks were actually held to just 86 field goal attempts in that game - the eighth straight contest in which Chicago limited the opposition to 86 or fewer field goal attempts - but quite simply shot the lights out, knocking down 48 of them. I certainly don't expect the Bulls to overlook the mighty Bucks here. Note that Chicago is 14-6 ATS when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent this season, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by an impressive average margin of 7.0 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Bucks are a long-term 103-144 ATS when playing at home after winning three of their last four games, which is the situation here, and 113-147 ATS when returning home following a road victory. Note that while the Bucks are coming off consecutive wins, they've only won three games in a row once going back to March 11th. Chicago has lost consecutive contests only once since March 8th. Take Chicago (10*). | |||||||
04-05-23 | Mets v. Brewers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 58 m | Show |
Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Milwaukee at 1:40 pm et on Wednesday. We've seen consecutive 'over' results to open this series and it's had everything to do with the Brewers hot bats as they've plated 19 runs while shutting out the Mets in consecutive games. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair as New York sends left-hander David Peterson to the mound against Brewers ace Corbin Burnes. Peterson had a fine Spring, not allowing a single earned run in in 12 innings of work. Walks were an issue as he handed out eight free passes but he put those concerns to rest in his regular season debut as he walked just one in five innings (while allowing one earned run on a solo home run) in an encouraging performance against the Marlins. Note that the Brewers have seen just one left-handed starter this season and struggled at the dish in that game against Justin Steele of the Cubs, ultimately prevailing by a 3-1 score. Burnes struggled in his first start of the campaign in Chicago but that's not all that unique as the exact same thing happened in his season debut at Wrigley Field last year. He proceeded to strike out eight batters over seven shutout innings in his next outing last April. We're talking about an elite starter that has finished at least top-seven in N.L. Cy Young voting in each of the last three seasons. I'm confident we'll see Burnes pitch well against the slumping Mets bats on Wednesday. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-04-23 | Oilers v. Kings +113 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 24 m | Show |
Pacific Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles over Edmonton at 10:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Kings have gotten through a tough part of their schedule that saw them play six games in nine nights in five different cities. Still, they remain within striking distance of the first-place Golden Knights in the Pacific Division (and top spot in the Western Conference). I like this quick revenge spot for Los Angeles after it suffered a 2-0 loss in Edmonton last week, despite outshooting the Oilers 43-37 in that contest. Here, we'll note that the Kings are 7-2 when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent in which they were shut out over the last two seasons. L.A. currently sits three points back of the Knights but still has one game remaining against Vegas coming up on Thursday. Of course, the Oilers are technically also within arm's reach of the Knights. They still have this back-to-back spot to deal with (they'll play in Anaheim tomorrow night) and also play four of their final five regular season games on the road. Edmonton is coming off back-to-back shutouts but has till allowed exactly four goals in five of its last eight contests. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
04-04-23 | Rockies v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 8 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. These two teams have alternated high and low-scoring games out of the gates this season and last night we saw a slugfest as the Dodgers won by a 13-4 score. I expect a reversal of course once again here as Colorado sends veteran German Marquez to the hill against Julio Urias of the Dodgers. Marquez was sharp in his season debut, allowing just two earned runs on five hits (and no walks) in six innings against the Padres. He saw plenty of these Dodgers last season and actually fared alright, allowing exactly one earned run while lasting at least six innings in two of those five outings. I like the form Marquez has shown going back to the Spring, when he recorded a sparkling 0.53 ERA and 0.77 WHIP in 17 innings of work. Urias was once one of the more underrated starters in baseball but perhaps not so anymore as he's finished seventh and third in National League Cy Young voting over the last two seasons and even received MVP votes in 2022. Like Marquez, Urias tossed six solid innings in his first outing this season and also had a fine Spring that included work in the World Baseball Classic. Urias worked at least six innings in four of five starts against the Rockies last season, allowing two earned runs or less in three of those outings. While the Dodgers are absolutely loaded again offensively, I think it's too early in the campaign to expect them to hang a crooked number on the board every night. Meanwhile, Colorado has plated just 36 runs in its last 14 games played here at Chavez Ravine. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-04-23 | Thunder v. Warriors UNDER 243.5 | 125-136 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma City and Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. This is the highest total on Tuesday's NBA board (at the time of writing) but I don't believe it is warranted. Oklahoma City checks in off a high-scoring 'over' result against the Suns on Sunday. Keep in mind, the Thunder haven't seen consecutive games go 'over' the total since March 16th and 19th. They were actually held to just 36-of-88 from the field in that double-digit loss on Sunday and have knocked down 42 or less field goals in nine of their last 10 contests. On the flip side, they've limited three of their last five opponents to 82 made field goals or fewer. The Warriors dropped a 112-110 decision in Denver on Sunday. They've allowed each of their last seven opponents to knock down 44 or fewer made field goals despite four of those foes hoisting up 90 or more field goal attempts. The 'over' has cashed in just four of their last 12 games overall. I understand the logic behind the lofty total here, noting that each of the previous three meetings between these two teams this season totalled at least 248 points. I simply feel we'll see a reversal of that trend here, noting that the Warriors have posted a 12-24 o/u record when playing at home off a loss over the last two seasons, with that spot producing an average total of just 221.8 points. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
04-04-23 | Celtics v. 76ers -2.5 | Top | 101-103 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Boston at 8 pm et on Tuesday. The 76ers predictably had their two-game winning streak snapped in Milwaukee on Sunday as the Bucks were in line for a big bounce-back performance after an embarrassing blowout loss at home against the Celtics three nights earlier. Here, I look for Philadelphia to get back on track as it hosts Boston, which comes off consecutive wins of its own and plays the front half of a back-to-back set culminating with a home game against Toronto on Wednesday. The 76ers continue to clamp down defensively, having held four straight opponents to 85 or fewer field goal attempts. It's a much different story for the Celtics, who have allowed 96 or more field goal attempts in each of their last four contests. While Boston has admittedly been red hot offensively it has been idle since Friday and isn't likely to afford itself nearly as many scoring opportunities as it has seen recently (91 or more FG attempts in six straight games). Note that while the Celtics are a perfect 3-0 in this series this season, they've gotten off just 82, 76 and 86 FG attempts in those three games. All three contests could have gone either way given they were all decided by single-digit margins, including a narrow three-point C's win here in Philadelphia back on February 25th. Note that the 76ers are 19-8 ATS when playing with double-revenge over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 7.4 points. Take Philadelphia (10*). | |||||||
04-03-23 | San Diego State +7.5 v. Connecticut | Top | 59-76 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
Game of the Year. My selection is on San Diego State plus the points over Connecticut at 9:20 pm et on Monday. My handicap of this matchup is fairly straight-forward. When we last saw these two teams in the Final Four on Saturday, San Diego was fortunate to escape with a one-point win on a buzzer-beater against Florida Atlantic while Connecticut was never really challenged in a dominant double-digit victory over Miami. I can't help but feel that leaves the Aztecs a little undervalued here as I like the way they match up against the Huskies. San Diego State is capable of defending the perimeter and making UConn work for every basket, effectively able to shorten proceedings thanks to its methodical nature, not to mention its fundamentally-sound defense. Note that the Aztecs rank fourth in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season, having faced the 16th toughest slate of offensive opponents (both according to KenPom). While UConn has run the table against non-conference opponents, it also faced just the 210th most difficult non-conference schedule. In stark contrast, San Diego State went up against the 17th toughest non-conference slate. Lines are obviously going to be extremely tight at this stage of the tournament. I've become a fan of San Diego State head coach Brian Dutcher over the course of this tournament and like the fact that the Aztecs have gone 44-31 ATS when coming off an ATS loss under his guidance, as is the case here. UConn enters this game on the heels of five straight ATS wins and the last time it accomplished that feat it lost its next game outright as a four-point favorite in the Big East Tournament against Marquette. Take San Diego State (10*). | |||||||
04-03-23 | Cubs v. Reds OVER 8 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
N.L. Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Monday. We saw a low-scoring game here at Great American Ballpark on Sunday but that should be the exception rather than the rule this season. I like the way the Reds are built offensively - a perfect fit for the bandbox they play their home games in. They'll get the opportunity to tee off on Cubs journeyman starter Drew Smyly on Monday, noting that the veteran left-hander posted an ERA north of six and a 1.84 WHIP in 16 1/3 innings in the Spring, tagged for six home runs along the way. Speaking of Spring struggles, Reds starter Connor Overton was lit up to the tune of a 15.43 ERA and 2.49 WHIP in 11 2/3 innings. He allowed six home runs. Again, that doesn't bode well as he prepares to make his first start of the season at hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark. While it's important not to put too much stock in Spring Training results, sometimes the numbers are alarming enough to cause concern and I feel that's the case here. Both lineups have shown some pop in the early going this season with the Cubs scoring 10 runs through three games against a tough Brewers pitching staff and the Reds plating 13 runs in their three-game set against the Pirates. Of note, the Cubs bullpen has already given up nine earned runs on 10 hits in just 11 innings logged. The Reds 'pen has been better, but also owns a less-than-impressive 7:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 11 2/3 innings. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
04-02-23 | Lakers v. Rockets UNDER 233.5 | Top | 134-109 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Houston at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams enter Sunday's contest riding three-game 'under' streaks but I look for a reversal of that trend here. Houston has had a tougher time just getting shots off, let alone knocking them down lately, hoisting up 87 or fewer field goal attempts in four of its last five games after eclipsing that mark five of its previous six contests. The outlier was a game in Brooklyn where the Rockets shot 46-of-98 from the field but still scored 'only' 114 points. Defensively, I like the fact that Houston has at least been able to limit its opponents scoring opportunities somewhat lately, allowing fewer than 90 field goal attempts in four straight and eight of its last nine games overall. Los Angeles has displayed a different offensive dynamic since Lebron James returned to the lineup. The Lakers have a lot of mouths to feed offensively but its been Lebron that has absorbed the majority of the opportunities. Note that Los Angeles has shot 50% or better from the field in three straight games, knocking down exactly 45 field goals in back-to-back contests heading into this one. It's not as if the Lakers have been playing at a break-neck pace - they've gotten off 90 or more FG attempts just three times in their last 11 games, topping out at 91 over that stretch (in a game where they scored 'only' 116 points leading to a total of 227 against Oklahoma City). Discipline has been key defensively as Los Angeles hasn't allowed more than 118 points in any of its last 11 games despite all 11 of those opponents knocking down 40 or more field goals. The Lakers allowed 114 points the last time they faced the Rockets on March 15th but that was on a blistering 47-of-89 shooting and that contest still stayed 'under' the total with only 224 points scored. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-02-23 | Wizards v. Knicks UNDER 222.5 | 109-118 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and New York at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the Knicks stunning rout of the Cavaliers in Cleveland on Friday. Here, I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'under' as New York returns home to host an undermanned Wizards squad on Sunday. Washington is coming off consecutive 'over' results but both of those contests were played at home, where the Wiz have played at a much faster tempo lately. Note that Washington has gotten off just 81, 84, 76, 83 and 86 field goal attempts in its last five road games. In those last two contests played at home the Wiz hoisted up 99 and 105 FG attempts. I mentioned Washington has posted consecutive 'over' results and that's notable as it hasn't recorded three straight 'overs' since February 28th to March 4th and that streak was aided by an overtime game against Toronto. To find the last time the Wiz were involved in three straight 'over' results not aided by overtime you would have to go all the way back to January 3rd to 9th. Their longest 'over' streak of the season lasted only four games and that came way back in November. The Knicks exploded offensively on Friday but keep in mind they're just one game removed from knocking down only 38 field goals, albeit on just 76 FG attempts, against Miami. In fact, New York has been limited to 42 or fewer made field goals in nine of its last 12 games overall. Defensively, the Knicks have held seven straight opponents to 47 or fewer FG attempts. While New York is 4-2 in the last six meetings in this series, it hasn't eclipsed 117 points in any of those six contests. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
04-02-23 | Tigers v. Rays UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 20 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Tampa Bay at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. The Rays bats exploded for 12 runs in yesterday's rout of the Tigers but I think performances are likely to be few and far between for this lineup this season. While Sunday's series-finale features a pitching matchup lacking in star power, it's one with no shortage of quality nonetheless. Joey Wentz will take the ball for Detroit. He struggled to keep the ball in the yard in the Spring, leading to some inflated numbers but that was in just 14 2/3 innings of work. In his first big league season a year ago, Wentz logged 32 2/3 innings and posted a 3.54 FIP and 1.10 WHIP. Home runs weren't an issue as he allowed just 0.6 long balls per nine innings. Jeffrey Springs will counter for Tampa Bay. He improved on a stellar 2021 showing by recording a 3.04 FIP and 1.07 WHIP in a career-high 135 1/3 innings of work last season. That included a start against these same Tigers in August as he didn't allow a single earned run over six frames of four-hit ball. Here, we'll note that the 'under' has gone 15-5 with Springs on the mound and the total set between 7.0 and 8.5 over the last two seasons, leading to an average total of just 6.6 runs scored. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-01-23 | Kings +105 v. Seattle Kraken | Top | 3-1 | Win | 105 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
Pacific Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles over Seattle at 10:05 pm et on Saturday. The Kings have gotten nothing out of their current road trip, dropping consecutive decisions in Calgary and Edmonton, scoring a grand total of one goal along the way (and none in the last five periods). We're talking about a small sample size when it comes to this team struggling and I'm confident we'll see them bounce back on Saturday in Seattle. Note that Los Angeles hasn't lost three games in a row since mid-January. Meanwhile, Seattle checks in off a blowout win over the lowly Ducks on Thursday but hasn't won consecutive games since reeling off five straight wins in late February-early March. The Kraken are winless at 0-6 when playing at home after giving up one goal or less in their previous contest this season, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 1.9 goals in that situation. The Kings on the other hand are 22-15 when coming off a road loss and 34-21 after dropping two of their last three games over the last two seasons. This is undoubtedly a game Los Angeles has had circled on its calendar having dropped all three previous meetings in this series this season, including a wild 9-8 defeat on home ice back on November 29th. Keep in mind, the Kings went 3-1 against the Kraken in Seattle's inaugural NHL campaign last season. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
04-01-23 | Miami-FL v. Connecticut UNDER 149.5 | Top | 59-72 | Win | 100 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Connecticut at 8:45 pm et on Saturday. Miami has now seen each of its last three games go 'over' the total, matching its longest such streak of the season. The last time it came off three consecutive 'over' results, its next contest totalled only 134 points in a narrow loss to Duke back on January 21st. Last time out, the Canes couldn't miss from the field (they ended up shooting 59%) in a come-from-behind win over Texas. The Longhorns inexplicably decided to run with the Canes and did find some success offensively, knocking down 30-of-60 field goal attempts themselves but it wasn't enough. I don't think we'll see Connecticut push the pace nearly as much here, noting it ranks outside the top-200 in the country in terms of adjusted tempo this season (according to KenPom). While the Huskies have been red hot offensively, I don't think their best chance at winning this game comes by getting involved in a back-and-forth track meet with Miami. The Canes are certainly in line for some regression offensively after scoring 85+ points and knocking down 34, 31 an 29 field goals over their last three games. Keep in mind, this is the same team that narrowly avoided the upset against Drake in the opening round, scoring only 63 points on 17-of-56 shooting in that contest. Lost in UConn's tremendous run offensively is the fact that it has been playing exceptional defense. You would have to go back nine games, all the way to February 25th against St. John's, to find the last time it allowed an opponent to make good on more than 24 field goals. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 10-1 with Miami playing away from home after allowing 80 points or more in its previous game over the last three seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of just 134.9 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 7-1 with UConn playing away from home after winning three or more games in a row ATS this season, which is also the situation here, resulting in an average total of 132.4 points in that spot. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-31-23 | Kings v. Blazers OVER 231 | 138-114 | Win | 100 | 15 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Sacramento and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Friday. The Kings scored 120 points without barely breaking a sweat in their 120-80 win here in Portland two nights ago. If this game is even remotely more competitive (as I expect it to be), there's a good chance we see Sacramento absolutely go off offensively. The Blazers truly can't be any worse than they were in Wednesday's game. On a positive note, they did get off 93 field goal attempts so the scoring opportunities were there and should continue to be there on Friday, noting that the Kings have allowed 91, 88, 92, 89, 91, 86 and 93 field goal attempts over their last seven games, still yielding 119 points in the lone outlier in which they held the T'Wolves to 86. Prior to Wednesday's contest, Sacramento had allowed six consecutive opponents to make good on at least 41 field goals. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 12-4 with the Blazers coming off a loss by 15 points or more this season, resulting in an average total of 234.7 points scored in that situation. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
03-31-23 | Pistons +5 v. Rockets | 115-121 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Houston at 8:10 pm et on Friday. I think the case can be made that the wrong team is being favored in this game on Friday. The Pistons have at least continued to play some defense, allowing 38, 44, 41, 45 and 39 made field goals over their last five games but in the three occasions where the opposition got into the 40's, they also got off 92 or more field goal attempts. It's a different story for Houston. It has allowed a ridiculous 50 or more made field goals in two of its last four games. On the flip side, the Rockets have knocked down 42 or more field goals in consecutive games but haven't hit 40+ in three straight contests since doing so in five straight games from March 9th to 17th - a stretch that saw them win three games outright (they've lost seven straight games since). Noting that they're 49-30 ATS when coming off three or more consecutive losses over the last three seasons, we'll back the revenge-minded Pistons here (they lost the first meeting this season by three points at home in late-January). Take Detroit (8*). | |||||||
03-31-23 | Knicks v. Cavs OVER 220.5 | 130-116 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Cleveland at 7:40 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams are coming off 'under' results last time out and in the case of the Cavs, back-to-back 'unders'. Cleveland could be missing Jarrett Allen for a second straight game which is critical to their defensive play and rebounding in particular. I suspect if he misses the Knicks will afford themselves a great deal more scoring opportunities after being limited to only 76 field goal attempts against Miami on Wednesday. Of course, New York has its own injury issues with Julius Randle now sidelined. The Knicks undoubtedly have the scoring depth to pick up the slack, however. They'll need to 'keep up' with the Cavs here, noting that Cleveland has made good on 40 or more field goals in eight of its last nine games with the only exception coming in a blowout win over the Rockets where it eased off the gas in the fourth quarter (we won with the 'under' in that game). While the Knicks did limit the Heat to just 35-of-79 shooting on Wednesday, they had previously allowed five straight and 10 of their last 11 opponents to knock down at least 40 field goals. This has been a low-scoring series recently with the last two meetings staying 'under' the total. It's worth noting though that we haven't seen three or more consecutive matchups between these two teams stay 'under' the total since 2017-18. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
03-31-23 | Mets v. Marlins +105 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 105 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Miami over New York at 6:40 pm et on Friday. The Mets took the opener of this series last night as the two starters duelled for five innings before things broke open in the second half of the game. Here, I look for the Marlins to answer back with Jesus Luzardo taking the ball against David Peterson of the Mets in a lefty-lefty matchup. Luzardo had a fine Spring, posting a 4.34 ERA and 1.13 WHIP to go along with a 19:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 18 2/3 innings of work. I would put Luzardo in the undervalued category after he recorded a 3.12 FIP and 1.04 WHIP in just north of 100 innings pitched last season. His counterpart, David Peterson, didn't give up a single earned run in the Spring but also pitched just 12 innings, issuing eight walks along the way. Peterson, like Luzardo, quietly had an impressive 2022 campaign, posting a 3.64 FIP and 1.33 WHIP. With that said, he allowed more hits, more walks and recorded fewer strikeouts per nine innings compared to Luzardo. Also note that the Marlins got to see him three times, seemingly getting better each time they faced him, culminating with a 6-3 win here at home in which they chased him from the game before the end of the fourth inning. The Mets saw Luzardo twice last season and he was more effective in his second outing against them, holding them to just two earned runs on four hits over six frames. The bullpens are pretty much a wash in my opinion and both had to work around three innings in yesterday's contest. Take Miami (10*). | |||||||
03-30-23 | Celtics v. Bucks UNDER 236.5 | Top | 140-99 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Milwaukee at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. The Bucks check in off consecutive high-scoring affairs in road wins over the Pistons and Pacers but should face a great deal more resistance in this back-to-back spot against a rested Celtics squad. Boston is coming off a high-scoring game of its own as it inexplicably allowed 130 points in a rout at the hands of the short-handed Wizards in Washington two nights ago. Perhaps that result was to be expected after the Celtics were lulled into a sense of complacency following three straight blowout wins. Here, I look for Boston to tighten things up, noting that it has still held five of its last seven opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals. While you wouldn't know it by their last few games, the Bucks can play some defense, especially here at home where they've limited the opposition to 42-of-93 shooting on average this season. In games that project as ultra-competitive (with the line between +3 and -3 as is the case here at the time of writing), the Bucks have posted a 17-29 o/u record over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 223.4 points. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-30-23 | Rangers v. Devils -124 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
Metropolitan Division Game of the Year. My selection is on New Jersey over New York at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. While I've been high on the Rangers in the second half of the season that doesn't mean that I won't look for spots to fade the Blueshirts. Off three consecutive wins, I see this as an ideal spot to go against New York and we'll do so by backing a desperate Devils team that has run into some resistance going 2-6 over their last eight contests. It's certainly not time to push the panic button in the swamp. New Jersey has already clinched a playoff spot and remains within striking distance of the first-place Hurricanes in the Metropolitan Division. The Rangers completed a two-game road sweep of the Hurricanes and Panthers last week but are just 5-5 in their last 10 contests away from home. Off an ugly 5-1 loss on Long Island two nights ago, look for the Devils to bounce back on home ice. Take New Jersey (10*). | |||||||
03-29-23 | Kings v. Blazers OVER 235 | 120-80 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Sacramento and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. We'll take advantage of the reasonable total being offered here thanks to the Kings coming off consecutive 'under' results and the Blazers riding a three-game 'under' streak into Wednesday's contest. The Kings are healthy again and figure to go off offensively against a Blazers squad that has been matador-like since losing the bulk of its starters to injuries, allowing 48, 41 and 49 made field goals over their last three games. The outlier over that stretch came in a contest where they still allowed 118 points against the Thunder. While Portland has unsurprisingly struggled to generate consistent offense without the likes of Damian Lillard, Jerami Grant and Anfernee Simons, there is reason for optimism entering this matchup. The Kings have been vulnerable defensively in recent games, lit up for 46, 49, 48, 47 and 44 made field goals over their last five contests. There's a fairly high probability they'll struggle to ramp up the defensive intensity in this uninspiring matchup when you consider Portland could only muster 90 points against New Orleans last time out. I simply feel this total will prove too low noting the Blazers have seen more than three consecutive games stay 'under' the total only once previously this season with that four-game 'under' streak coming back in late-December. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
03-29-23 | Lakers v. Bulls UNDER 225.5 | Top | 121-110 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. It was a struggle for the Lakers to just get shots off, let alone knock them down in Lebron James' return to the lineup on Sunday against Chicago. Los Angeles hoisted up only 75 field goal attempts in that double-digit loss, yet the game still found its way 'over' the total. It's worth noting that the Lakers haven't seen consecutive games go 'over' the total since way back on February 4th and 7th. They've been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in four of their last six games, getting off 78 or fewer field goal attempts in four of their last five contests. The Bulls are coming off an uncharacteristically bad defensive effort against the Clippers in the back half of a back-to-back on Monday. Perhaps they were a little too 'fat and happy' after winning the first two games on their road trip in lopsided fashion. Here, I expect Chicago to lock back in defensively, noting that it has still held 16 of its last 22 opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals. On the flip side, it's not easy to speed up the Bulls offense, noting that even in a game where they trailed most of the way against the Clippers on Monday, they still hoisted up only 82 FG attempts. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 16-4 with the Lakers playing on the road off a double-digit home loss as a favorite, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 24-14 with the Bulls coming off a loss this season and 15-6 when that defeat came on the road. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-28-23 | Utah Valley v. UAB OVER 151.5 | Top | 86-88 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
NIT Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Utah Valley and UAB at 9:30 pm et on Tuesday. We missed with the 'over' in Utah Valley's 'upset' win over Cincinnati in the quarter-final round of the NIT last week as that contest stayed just 'under' the total thanks to a miserable shooting performance from the Bearcats (27-of-79 from the field). I think it's notable that the Wolverines allowed Cincinnati to hoist up just shy of 80 field goal attempts in that game. They figure to face a similar up-tempo approach from UAB here, noting that the Blazers have gotten off 63, 71, 66 and 64 FG attempts over their last four games yet somehow all four of those contests stayed 'under' the total, only serving to provide us with a reasonably-priced total here. In fact, UAB ranks 32nd in the nation in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom, just 10 spots ahead of Utah Valley. The Blazers have allowed each of their last five opponents to get off at least 60 FG attempts and Utah Valley is well-positioned to take advantage. The Wolverines have knocked down 27, 28, 40, 26, 31, 34, 33 and 25 field goals over their last eight contests with the two outliers coming in games where they still scored 72 and 74 points. Utah Valley comes off that 'under' result against Cincinnati but hasn't posted consecutive 'unders' over its last six contests. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
03-28-23 | Kings +120 v. Flames | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Calgary at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. I have no problem going back to the well fading the Flames after missing with the Sharks on the puck-line here in Calgary on Saturday (a late empty-net goal cost us that win). Note that Calgary is just 3-7 off a home win in which it scored four or more goals this season, as is the case here. Meanwhile the Kings are 16-9 under head coach Todd McLellan after allowing six goals or more in their previous contest, which is the situation here off Sunday’s wild 7-6 win over St. Louis. The Kings took the last meeting between these two teams by an 8-2 score at home. The Flames would love to get their revenge here but I think they’re a team going nowhere right now and will gladly fade them in a favored role. Take Los Angeles (9*). | |||||||
03-28-23 | Magic +8.5 v. Grizzlies | 108-113 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. I'm expecting a tightly-contested affair between these non-conference opponents on Tuesday as the Magic look to extend their three-game winning streak while the Grizzlies aim for their seventh consecutive victory. The Grizzlies have been red hot offensively, knocking down 45 or more field goals in six of their last seven games. On the flip side, however, they also seem to be developing some bad habits defensively, having yielded 48, 47 and 45 made field goals over their last three contests. After facing the likes of the Rockets (twice) and Hawks over their last three games, the Magic might just resemble the early-2000's Pistons to the Grizzlies here. Orlando has held three of its last four opponents to 37 or fewer made field goals. Meanwhile, the Magic offense has thrived, knocking down 40 or more field goals in each of their last 13 contests. Take Orlando (8*). | |||||||
03-28-23 | Canucks v. Blues -105 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis over Vancouver at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. Simple fade of the Canucks here as they come off a weekend road sweep in Dallas and Chicago. Vancouver had to hang on in the third period in both of those games but ultimately prevailed. Here, I expect the Canucks to be in tough against a Blues team that certainly hasn’t quit on the season despite being out of contention (much like Vancouver). On Sunday St. Louis fell just short in a wild 7-6 loss in Los Angeles, ending a streak of five straight games in which it collected at least a point. While the Blues are surprisingly healthy at this late stage of the season, the Canucks are banged-up and I don’t expect a peak performance from them at the end of this three-game road trip. Take St. Louis (8*). | |||||||
03-28-23 | Cavs v. Hawks +1.5 | Top | 118-120 | Win | 100 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Cleveland at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Cavaliers are riding a four-game winning streak, having gone 3-1 ATS over that stretch. I think that streak comes to an end on Tuesday, however, as they face a tougher challenge in the Hawks after going against the Wizards, Nets (twice) and Rockets over their last four games. Atlanta enters this game on a tear offensively. It has knocked down at least 44 field goals in an incredible eight straight and 10 of its last 11 games overall. Of course, the Hawks defense is far from elite and they've also given up 45, 52 and 48 made field goals over their last three contests. I think they catch a bit of a break here, however, as they go up against a slow-paced Cavs squad that has topped out at 42 made field goals over their last three games and hasn't hoisted up 90 or more field goal attempts since March 6th. While Atlanta is just 3-3 over its last six games, it hasn't lost consecutive contests since March 11th and 13th (it comes off a loss against Memphis here). Also note that the Hawks have dropped the cash in consecutive games only once this entire month (7-6 ATS in March). Take Atlanta (10*). | |||||||
03-27-23 | Bulls v. Clippers UNDER 220 | 112-124 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Monday. The Bulls are as locked-in defensively as any team in the NBA right now having held five straight opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals. They figure to continue their strong play at that end of the floor here as they take on the Paul George-less Clippers on Monday. Since losing George to injury last week, the Clips have played twice, splitting those two games and getting off just 84 and 75 field goal attempts. They actually shot considerably well in both contests but I don't expect a similar story to unfold here. Los Angeles is favored for a reason in this spot, though, with Chicago unlikely to shoot the lights out the way it has in the first two games of its current road trip. Despite scoring 124 and 118 points over their last two games, the Bulls have still gotten off 87 or fewer field goal attempts in three straight contests. I can't help but think Los Angeles will be set on keeping the pace to a minimum here after allowing the Pelicans to shoot 51-of-96 from the field in Saturday's blowout loss. Note that the only previous meeting between these two teams this season totalled just 211 points as the Clips won (and covered) in Chicago, limiting the Bulls to only 77 FG attempts in that victory. We're working with a lower posted total this time around, but I'm not convinced enough of an adjustment has been made. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
03-27-23 | Seattle Kraken +118 v. Wild | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle over Minnesota at 8:05 pm et on Monday. The Wild sit in first place in the Central Division but the Avalanche (and the Stars) are certainly applying some pressure with both teams sitting just one point behind. Meanwhile, Seattle has to like where it sits in its second NHL campaign, currently holding down the top Wild Card spot with a seven-point cushion over the first team out of contention in the Calgary Flames. Note that the Kraken are only three points behind the Oilers for third place in the Pacific Division, holding a game-in-hand. Seattle didn't just beat Nashville on Saturday, it absolutely crushed it, scoring seven goals while outshooting the Preds by a 39-16 margin. The Kraken have scored 17 goals over their last four games. Meanwhile, Minnesota comes off a 3-1 home win over the lowly Blackhawks. I haven't been overly impressed by the Wild lately. They're 5-3 over their last eight games but none of the victories have been all that impressive, with the exception being a 2-1 win in New Jersey. They've lost two of their last three games on home ice and average just 2.9 goals per game here this season. In stark contrast, the Kraken check in averaging an impressive 3.8 goals per game on the road this season, where they've gone 24-13. Take Seattle (8*). | |||||||
03-26-23 | Rockets v. Cavs UNDER 225 | 91-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Cleveland at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. The Rockets shot a blistering 51.6% and 54% from the field in consecutive losses in Memphis earlier this week but I expect nothing of the sort as they continue their road trip (and likely their losing streak) in Cleveland on Sunday. There's really been nothing special about the Rockets offense lately, they simply had a couple of strong performances against an opponent that didn't necessarily take them all that seriously (in the first game of the two-game set in particular). Note that Houston has still been held to 40 or fewer made field goals in three of its last seven contests. The Cavs rallied for a win in Brooklyn last time out - their third win in a row. Note that Cleveland has hoisted up fewer than 90 field goal attempts in eight straight games. Even in their most recent game, where they trailed much of the way and needed to stage a late-game comeback, they still weren't all that interested in really pushing the pace. Defensively, the Cavs are locked-in right now having held three of their last four opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals and nine of their last 11 foes to 82 or fewer field goal attempts. The only previous time they faced the Rockets this season they yielded just 76 FG attempts in a 113-95 road victory. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 11-3 with the Rockets coming off consecutive 'over' results this season, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 221.1 points. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 42-29 with Cleveland coming off an 'over' result over the last two seasons, leading to an average total of only 213.9 points. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
03-26-23 | Miami-FL v. Texas UNDER 149.5 | Top | 88-81 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
Elite Eight Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Texas at 5:05 pm et on Sunday. While I can understand the logic behind this total sitting in the high-140's on Sunday, I believe it will prove too high. Miami comes off consecutive 'over' results. It hasn't seen three straight games go 'over' the total since January 11th to 16th - the only previous time this season it produced such a streak. Texas had its seven-game 'under' streak snapped in its win over Xavier on Friday. The Longhorns haven't posted consecutive 'over' results since February 6th and 11th. Texas has been on fire offensive, knocking down 31 or more field goals in each of its last four contests. It figures to be tested here, however, noting that while Miami's offense has impressed, it's defensive play has perhaps been even better, holding all three opponents in this tournament to 26 or fewer made field goals. Despite allowing Alabama to get off 64 field goal attempts on Friday, it still allowed just 24 made field goals. The Hurricanes have made good on 29 or more field goals in four of their last five games overall. Keep in mind, Texas hasn't allowed an opponent to reach that number since way back on February 18th against Oklahoma. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 9-2 with the Canes playing away from home after scoring 75 points or more in consecutive games over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 140 points in that spot. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-26-23 | Mavs -10 v. Hornets | 104-110 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Charlotte at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. A quick revenge spot for the down-trodden Mavericks here as they look to snap a three-game losing streak and avenge Friday's stunning nine-point home loss against the Hornets. Likely to have their full compliments of players at their disposal, I expect the Mavs to put forth a much sharper performance than we saw on Friday. Keep in mind, that last game against the Hornets came on the heels of consecutive gut-wrenching losses to the Grizzlies and Warriors (by a combined six points). The Mavs overlooked the lowly Hornets, plain and simple. They won't here as this road trip will only get tougher with stops in Indiana, Philadelphia, Miami and Atlanta on deck. The Hornets are without Terry Rozier while Kelly Oubre continues to battle through a shoulder injury (he is expected to play). Here, we'll note that Dallas is 19-5 ATS when playing on the road off an outright upset loss over the last three seasons. Take Dallas (8*). | |||||||
03-25-23 | Bucks v. Nuggets -2.5 | 106-129 | Win | 100 | 14 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver minus the points over Milwaukee at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. We got the result we wanted from the Bucks last night, winning with them in Utah and also getting a lopsided final score that sets us up nicely for a play on the Nuggets on Saturday. Sweeping a back-to-back set in altitude in Salt Lake City and Denver is never easy and I don't expect that to be any different for the mighty Bucks. Milwaukee is rolling offensively right now but almost certainly in for some regression after knocking down 51 and 55 field goals in its last two games. Note that it got off 98 and 99 field goal attempts in those two contests but Denver has held four straight and eight of its last 10 opponents to fewer than 90 FG attempts. The Nuggets have yielded just 39, 41, 38 and 44 made field goals in their last four contests with the high-water mark coming in a 118-104 win over the Wizards last time out. Offensively, Denver is well-positioned to go off in this game. It has made good on 42 or more field goals in each of its last seven games, finally fully healthy. The Bucks have yielded at least 93 FG attempts in an incredible 11 straight games with six of their opponents getting off at least 100. The Nuggets did drop the first meeting between these two teams this season but that came in Milwaukee, without Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic, and it came by just eight points as a 10-point underdog. Take Denver (8*). | |||||||
03-25-23 | Connecticut v. Gonzaga OVER 153.5 | 82-54 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Connecticut and Gonzaga at 8:45 pm et on Saturday. While I'm not a big proponent of backing the 'over' in the Elite Eight after the Sweet 16 proved so high-scoring (six of eight games went 'over' the total), I'm not sure the oddsmakers can set this total high enough. Gonzaga is approaching uncharted territory defensively right now as it has matched a season-high by holding eight straight opponents to 30 made field goals of fewer. The only previous time it reached that mark it allowed 81 points on 31 made field goals in a game that totalled 169 points against BYU in mid-February. Note that the Bulldogs have allowed more than 30 made field goals on seven previous occasions this season and those contests have totalled 167, 172, 190, 199, 157, 169 and 185 points. Connecticut figures to test the Zags defense here, noting that the Huskies are arguably the hottest offensive team still playing in this tournament. Since February 22nd, they've knocked down 30 or more field goals in five of nine games with the low-water mark being 25 made field goals in a game where they still scored 71 points. Defensively, UConn has also been on point but has certainly benefited from the opposition it has faced in this tourney. First, it went against an overmatched MAAC squad in Iona. Then came a matchup with slow-paced Saint Mary's and finally an injury-plagued Arkansas squad that looked lost after the first few minutes on Thursday. Here, I do think we'll see the Zags give the Huskies a stiff test and I think that lends itself to a relatively high-scoring affair. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
03-25-23 | Nets v. Heat UNDER 222.5 | 129-100 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Brooklyn and Miami at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. We won with the Nets 'over' in the front half of their two-game set with the Cavs earlier this week (the second matchup went 'over' the total as well). I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' as Brooklyn heads to Miami to face the surging Heat on Saturday, however. Note that the Nets squeezed about as much as they could out of their offense last time out but still produced 'only' 114 points in a narrow loss to Cleveland. Brooklyn has now been held to 38 or fewer made field goals in four of its last five games. On a positive note, the Nets have topped out at 42 made field goals allowed over their last four contests, limiting all four of those opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. The Heat have settled back into their preferred style and that involves a methodical pace as they've hoisted up 82 or fewer FG attempts in five straight games. Only twice over that stretch did they manage to knock down more than 38 field goals. On the flip side, you would have to go back four games to find the last time Miami allowed an opponent to get off more than 82 FG attempts. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
03-25-23 | Sharks +1.5 v. Flames | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Jose +1.5 goals over Calgary at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. We successfully faded the Flames in their 3-2 loss to the Golden Knights on Thursday and we'll do so again here, albeit on the puck-line with the underdog Sharks. San Jose comes off a 7-2 beatdown in Vancouver two nights ago. Keep in mind, it is just one-game removed from an overtime loss against the red hot Oilers in Edmonton so it's not as if the Sharks have completely folded at this late stage of the season. Here, San Jose will be looking to snap a three-game losing streak in this series. Note that the Flames hadn't won three consecutive meetings with the Sharks since 2015 prior to their current streak. To find the last time Calgary took four straight games against San Jose you would have to go all the way back to 2008. That's not to mention the fact that the Flames last three victories over the Sharks have all come by at least two goals. Note that San Jose is a respectable 17-15 when playing on the road after allowing three or more goals in consecutive games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.2 goals in that spot. As bad as things have gone for them this season, they're 9-4 when playing on the road after allowing four or more goals in back-to-back games, which is also the situation here, outscoring the opposition by 0.6 goals on average along the way. We can even take it one step farther, noting that San Jose has won all four games when playing away from home after giving up five or more goals in each of its last two contests this season, as is the case here. The Sharks have outscored opponents by an impressive average margin of 2.0 goals in that situation. Meanwhile, the Flames season is quickly circling the drain at this point and we'll note that they're just 8-15 when coming off a one-goal loss against a division opponent over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 1.0 goal in that spot. Take San Jose +1.5 goals (8*). | |||||||
03-24-23 | Thunder +5.5 v. Lakers | 111-116 | Win | 100 | 14 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Friday. We'll fade the Lakers off their big home win over the Suns two nights ago. That marked Los Angeles' second straight victory but it remains just 1-2-1 ATS over its last four contests. The Lakers have had a tough time just getting shots off lately, hoisting up 84, 78 and 70 field goal attempts over their last three games and now go up against a Thunder defense that can certainly hang and figures to be in a foul mood after allowing the Clippers to connect on 42-of-90 field goal attempts, without Paul George no less, in a lopsided affair last night. Of course, perhaps a letdown was to be expected from the Thunder after they notched a 101-100 victory over the same Clips two nights earlier. This will be Oklahoma City's third straight game in Los Angeles and it has looked reasonably comfortable - even in last night's loss it still made good on 41-of-93 FG attempts, the fifth time in the last six games it managed to get off at least 93 FG attempts. It remains to be seen whether Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will be able to play on Friday as he recovers from an abdominal injury. We'll treat it as a bonus if he can go but will make this play assuming he'll be sidelined. The Thunder have gone a perfect 3-0 ATS in their last three games following a loss. They haven't dropped consecutive games since enduring a five-game skid from February 23rd to March 1st. Meanwhile, the Lakers are a woeful 4-15 ATS when playing at home off a double-digit home win over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by just 2.0 points on average in that spot. Take Oklahoma City (8*). | |||||||
03-24-23 | Bucks -8.5 v. Jazz | Top | 144-116 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Utah at 9:10 pm et on Friday. The Jazz are in tough right now with both Jordan Clarkson and Lauri Markkanen sidelined. They did manage to win without that duo on Monday against the Kings but followed it up with a double-digit loss to the Blazers on Wednesday (with Markkanen in the lineup). Utah is now in uncharted territory offensively as it has scored 115 points or more in eight straight games - its longest such streak of the season. Here, it will be tested, however, as the Bucks have held three of their last four opponents under that number. Milwaukee has limited only three of its last seven opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals but that's not all bad when you consider the shot volume it has been yielding. The Bucks have allowed at least 93 field goal attempts in each of their last nine games. Only one of Milwaukee's last six opponents has managed to shoot better than 44.4% from the field. The Jazz check in having allowed 40 or more made field goals in eight of their last nine contests. The only occasion where they didn't over that stretch came in a game where they held Miami to just 79 FG attempts but still gave up 119 points in a losing effort. The Bucks, even without Khris Middleton, should be able to get loose given Utah has yielded 93 or more FG attempts in four of its last six contests. One thing Milwaukee doesn't lack in is scoring depth so the absence of Middleton can certainly be managed. Here, we'll note that the Bucks are a long-term 53-32 ATS when playing on the road as a favorite of between 6.5 and 12.5 points, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 10.4 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Jazz are a miserable 1-9 ATS when coming off six or seven ATS wins in their last eight games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, allowing a whopping 121.4 points per game in that spot. Take Milwaukee (10*). | |||||||
03-24-23 | Miami-FL v. Houston UNDER 138.5 | Top | 89-75 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
Sweet 16 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Houston at 7:15 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'over' in Houston's second round rout of Auburn and also cashed the same play in Miami's stunning lopsided win over Indiana. I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' in as the Hurricanes and Cougars meet in Sweet 16 action on Friday, however. As a considerable underdog, I think Miami will have a keen interest in limiting the number of possessions in this one. Keep in mind, the Canes check in sporting a defense that ranks outside of the top-100 in the country in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency (according to KenPom) not to mention the fact they're up against a Houston squad that sits an impressive eighth in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency. Of course, the Cougars should be easily convinced to keep this one at a methodical pace, noting that they rank 342nd (out of 364 Division I teams) in adjusted tempo (also according to KenPom). Only one team remaining in this tournament ranks higher than Houston in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency and that's Alabama. Note that while the Cougars did hang 81 points on Auburn last time out, they needed 60 field goal attempts to get there. Houston has still gotten off 57 or fewer field goal attempts in five of its last seven games. Meanwhile, Miami is almost certainly in for a letdown here after connecting on 34-of-70 field goal attempts in its rout of Indiana. The Canes jumped ahead by a considerable margin early and were able to dictate the pace from there. I don't anticipate them being nearly as successful in doing so against Kelvin Sampson's Cougars. Note that only one of Houston's last six opponents and two of its last nine have managed to knock down more than 20 field goals. While Miami's defense isn't on nearly the same level, it has proven capable of stepping up. A dominant defensive effort against Duke back in February comes to mind. Also note that the Canes have at least limited four of their last five foes to 27 or fewer made field goals. Finally, I'll point out that Miami hasn't seen consecutive games go 'over' the total since late January-early February. The same goes for Houston. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-24-23 | Spurs v. Wizards OVER 228 | 124-136 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Antonio and Washington at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The last time these two teams met in January in San Antonio we saw a closing total of 240 points. That game failed to reach that number but did surpass the total we're working with in Friday's rematch. Of course, injuries are playing a big role in the adjustment of this total. San Antonio has been flooring a makeshift roster on any given night due to injury (tanking) management. Meanwhile, the Wizards are without two of their best offensive threats in Kyle Kuzma and Bradley Beal. With that being said, I think we see a 'sling-shot' effect from the Wiz offense here. They've actually knocked down 41, 42 and 44 field goals over their last three games with the latter performance coming without Kuzma and Beal. They only managed to reach 104 points in a loss to the Nuggets last time out as Denver led most of the way and was able to limit the pace (Washington got off only 84 field goal attempts). While we haven't seen it lately, I do think Washington would prefer to go up-tempo and will undoubtedly be afforded that opportunity against a hapless Spurs defense that has yielded 95 or more field goal attempts to the opposition in five of its last seven games. On the flip side, San Antonio is coming off consecutive dismal offensive showings, scoring just 84 and 94 points in blowout losses in New Orleans and Milwaukee. Note that the Spurs are expected to have a number of key offensive contributors back in the lineup on Friday, including Keldon Johnson. San Antonio has hoisted up 93 or more FG attempts in three of its last four contests while the Wizards have allowed 48, 48, 43 and 42 made field goals over their last four games. Finally, I'll point out that while the Spurs enter on a three-game 'under' streak, they've yet to see four straight contests stay 'under' the total this season with the 'over' going 3-0 on the previous three occasions where they followed three 'unders' in a row. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
03-23-23 | Golden Knights +122 v. Flames | Top | 3-2 | Win | 122 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
Pacific Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Vegas over Calgary at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. The Flames throttled the Golden Knights by a 7-2 score, on the road no less, when these two teams last met on March 16th. I look for Vegas to get its revenge on Thursday as it goes for its third win in a row. Note that Calgary has taken consecutive meetings against Vegas only once since the Golden Knights joined the league in 2017. That came all the way back in 2018. The recent loss to the Flames was the lone blemish on an otherwise flawless record for the Knights going back to March 9th. Vegas checks in 6-1 over its last seven contests. Meanwhile, the Flames continue to struggle. They are coming off a win on Tuesday but that came at the expense of the lowly Ducks. Calgary has managed to post consecutive wins just once since January 26th. In fact, the Flames longest previous winning streak this season lasted only three games, indicating what a difficult campaign it has been. The Knights know that the finale of this western Canadian road trip will be tough as they'll face the red hot Oilers in Edmonton on Saturday. I look for them to assure themselves of a winning trip with a victory on Thursday. Take Vegas (10*). | |||||||
03-23-23 | Arkansas v. Connecticut OVER 139.5 | 65-88 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arkansas and Connecticut at 7:15 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'under' in Arkansas' SEC Tournament swan song against Texas A&M two weeks ago and since then, the Razorbacks have rattled off two more 'under' results in NCAA Tournament action. I look for that three-game 'under' streak to come to an end on Thursday, however, as the Hogs take on Connecticut in a Sweet 16 matchup. Arkansas staged an improbable upset of Kansas last Saturday despite getting just four points combined on 1-of-10 shooting from pro prospects Nick Smith Jr. and Anthony Black. Smith contributed only four points in the first two tourney games. Of course, he hasn't necessarily been the same player since returning from a knee injury that has plagued him for much of the season but the fact is, he scored in double-figures in seven straight games leading up to this tournament so there's reason to be confident that he can chip in a whole lot more here on the second weekend of the tournament. Black re-aggravated a foot injury against Kansas but all indications are that he'll play here. He's been playing through the pain and entered the Kansas game having scored in double-figures in four of the last five contests. Again, expect more out of him offensively in this one even if the foot injury does limit his quickness (I believe it's more of a concern at the defensive end of the floor). On the flip side, Connecticut has been one of the hottest offensive teams in the country in recent weeks, knocking down 26 or more field goals in eight straight games and scoring 87 or more points on four occasions in the last month alone. The Huskies were able to bully overmatched Iona and Saint Mary's offenses last weekend but I expect them to have their hands full here. Note that Arkansas, even with its key injuries, has made good on more than 20 field goals in an incredible 19 of its last 20 games overall. Defensively, the Hogs have allowed six of their last seven opponents to knock down at least 24 field goals with the lone exception coming in their NCAA Tourney opener against Illinois - a game that still reached 136 total points. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is a perfect 6-0 with UConn coming off a game in which it allowed 55 points or less this season, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of 154 points. The 'over' is also 17-8 with the Huskies having held consecutive opponents to 65 points or less over the last two seasons, which is also the situation here, leading to an average total of 145.1 points in that spot. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
03-23-23 | Knicks v. Magic UNDER 229.5 | 106-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams are coming off 'over' results but neither of those games necessarily saw the pace to warrant those outcomes. Last night, both the Knicks and Heat shot the lights out in New York's 127-120 loss in Miami. New York will have a difficult time reproducing that performance here, noting that it averages 'only' 110.7 points per game when playing the second of back-to-back nights over the last two seasons (those 22 contests have totalled an average of 217.9 points). After getting off 90 or more field goal attempts in three of four games from March 5th to 11th, the Knicks have hoisted up 88 or fewer FG attempts in each of their last five contests. The Magic were involved in a relatively high-scoring game against the struggling Wizards two nights ago. Neither team got off more than 83 FG attempts in that one. Orlando has been limited to 86 or fewer FG attempts in three of its last four contests. To say that the Magic have struggled offensively against the Knicks going back to the start of last season would be an understatement. They've knocked down just 37, 36, 30 and 39 field goals in the last four meetings, topping out at 104 points in those games. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
03-22-23 | Suns -1 v. Lakers | 111-122 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. I like the spot here for the struggling Suns as they check in having lost four of their last five games SU and all five ATS but all is not lost. They're still sitting in second place in the Pacific Division and fourth in the Western Conference. You would assume Phoenix would be struggling mightily at the offensive end of the floor with Kevin Durant and now DeAndre Ayton sidelined but that hasn't necessarily been the case. The Suns put up 120 points in Sunday's narrow loss to the Thunder and have knocked down more than 40 field goals in an incredible nine straight games and 40 or more in 14 consecutive contests. The issue has been their defensive play but I believe that can be rectified in fairly short order. Here, we'll note that the Suns have allowed just 107.6 points per game when coming off a loss over the last two seasons (54-game sample size) and 107.2 ppg when that loss came on the road (33-game sample size), as is the case here. The Lakers have topped out at 111 points over their last three games - that performance coming in the 'Austin Reaves game' on Sunday against the road-weary Magic. Note that Los Angeles has been held to 40 or fewer made field goals in three of its last four contests. Like the Suns, the Lakers have also had a tough time defensively in recent weeks, allowing 46, 42, 42, 47, 40 and 41 made field goals over their last six games. Note that they're a woeful 13-27 ATS when playing at home after a home win over the last three seasons. Take Phoenix (8*). |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ricky Tran | $756 |
ProSportsPicks | $632 |
Joseph D'Amico | $510 |
Joey Tron | $450 |
Tom Macrina | $399 |
Nick Parsons | $344 |
Sean Murphy | $306 |
Jack Jones | $303 |
William Burns | $233 |
Dan Kaiser | $220 |