Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
04-26-19 | Rockies v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | 8-4 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' in Atlanta on Friday night. Antonio Senzatela will take the ball for the Rockies. He has been quietly effective so far this season and checks in having worked at least six innings in both of his starts. Senzatela enters this start on five days' rest after throwing just 83 and 94 pitches in his first two outings. He needed only 82 pitches to get through five innings, allowing only two earned runs in a 5-3 Rockies victory here in Atlanta last season. Sam Fried will counter for Atlanta. We missed with the 'under' in his last start but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Fried continues to pitch well, having allowed just four earned runs over 24 1/3 innings spanning four starts this season. That includes a start against these same Rockies in which he didn't allow a single earned run over six innings, at Coors Field no less. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-25-19 | Stars v. Blues -149 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 25 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis over Dallas at 9:35 pm et on Thursday. I really like the way this series sets up for the Blues, who have been arguably the best team in hockey over the last several months. St. Louis really didn't have a whole lot of trouble getting past a complete and playoff-seasoned Jets squad in round one. It's not as if the Blues didn't face any adversity, however, as they dropped both Games 3 and 4 on home ice after taking the first two games in Winnipeg. Their rally in the third period of Game 5 of that series was one for the ages. Dallas comes in on a serious roll as well, but let's face it, the Predators essentially rolled over, especially at the tail-end of that series. Look for the Blues to grabn the early series lead on the strength of another strong performance from rookie goaltender Jordan Binnington. Take St. Louis (10*). | |||||||
04-25-19 | Nuggets v. Spurs OVER 208 | Top | 103-120 | Win | 100 | 23 h 19 m | Show |
NBA First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and San Antonio at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. Unlike the Jazz-Rockets series which hasn't really come all that close to approaching the total in most games, this series has been different. The two games played in San Antonio actually reached 226 and 220 points, well north of the number we're dealing with tonight. Game 5 totaled only 198 points, but that was with the two teams making good on just 25 free throw attempts and the Spurs shooting 7-of-24 from beyond the arc, a number they should be able to improve on back at home with their season on the line. We've seen the total drop a couple of points from the closing number in Game 5 but I don't believe the move is warranted. In previous years I would look to play the 'under' with inflated totals later in series' but that is no longer the case. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
04-25-19 | Marlins v. Phillies UNDER 7.5 | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 22 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' in Philadelphia on Thursday night. Caleb Smith will take the ball for the Marlins. We won with the 'under' in his most recent start against the Nationals. Smith has now worked six innings in three straight starts, giving up only four earned runs on 10 hits over 18 innings of work. That included a start against these same Phillies in which he tossed six shutout innings of one-hit ball. Aaron Nola will counter for Philadelphia. He should benefit from facing a Marlins lineup that has plated three runs or less in eight of their last nine games. Nola has been inconsistent but has at least worked into the sixth inning or deeper in two of his last three starts. He has been outstanding against the Marlins, limiting them to five earned runs on 19 hits in his last four outings against them, spanning 26 1/3 innings pitched. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-24-19 | Jazz v. Rockets -8 | 93-100 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston minus the points over Utah at 8 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the Jazz in their outright victory to stave off elimination on Sunday but I won't hesitate to switch gears and lay the points with the Rockets as they return home looking to close out Utah on Wednesday night. It was an off game for the Rockets to be sure, as they shot the ball poorly from all over the floor. Meanwhile, the Jazz turned in what was their most complete performance of the series to date, which was not surprising given the circumstances. With no interest in getting stretched out any further in this series, look for the Rockets to deliver the knockout blow on Wednesday night at home. Take Houston (10*). | |||||||
04-24-19 | Hurricanes v. Capitals -145 | 4-3 | Loss | -145 | 13 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington over Carolina at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday. The home teams swept last night's Game 7 matchups and I expect more of the same on Wednesday night as the defending champion Capitals host the Hurricanes. This has been a home-dominated series to be sure with the host winning all six games so far. There's little reason to believe that the Hurricanes can win a game here in Washington based on what we've seen in this series to date. Sure, they pushed the Caps to overtime in Game 2, but in watching that game I never really had the belief that they were going to prevail. Remember, the last time a game was played on this ice, the Caps steamrolled the Canes by a 6-0 score, potting a trio of power play goals. We're being asked to lay a very reasonable price with the superior team here. Take Washington (10*). | |||||||
04-24-19 | Tigers v. Red Sox UNDER 9.5 | 4-11 | Loss | -101 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Boston at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' at Fenway Park on Wednesday night. The Tigers will hand the ball to Tyson Ross. He has worked at least six innings in three straight starts, needing to throw no more than 92 pitches in any of those outings. The 'under' has gone 3-1 in Ross' four starts so far this season. He'll be facing a Red Sox lineup that simply hasn't gotten it going this season, scoring four runs or less in seven of their last nine games. Eduardo Rodriguez will counter for Boston. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in back-to-back starts, throwing just 93 and 94 pitches in those outings. Rodriguez has a solid track record against the Red Sox, working at least into the sixth in three of four career starts against them, giving up nine earned runs in 23 innings of work. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-23-19 | Golden Knights +102 v. Sharks | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
NHL Game of the Month. My selection is on Vegas over San Jose at 10:08 pm et on Tuesday. I absolutely love the way this game sets up for the Golden Knights. The Sharks will be looking to pull off an improbable comeback victory in this series and while they do have home ice on their side, it's not as if the Knights aren't capable of winning in this building. There's no reason for the Knights to push the panic button after dropping back-to-back games - after all, Game 6 could have gone either way, and probably should have gone Vegas' way as it outshot San Jose by a wide margin. At the time of writing, the Sharks are a short favorite here, and I simply don't believe the line is warranted as Vegas is the superior team, and has an excellent leadership group which starts at the top with head coach Gerard Gallant. Take Vegas (10*). | |||||||
04-23-19 | Diamondbacks v. Pirates UNDER 7.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 22 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. Luke Weaver has lasted beyond the fifth inning only once in four starts this season but that doesn't mean he hasn't been effective. Weaver checks in having allowed just five earned runs over 16 1/3 innings of work in his last three outings. The 'under' has gone 2-0-1 during that stretch. Over Weaver's last two starts he has struck out 17 while walking just one in 11 1/3 innings. Pirates ace Trevor Williams is one of the most underrated starters in baseball as far as I'm concerned. He has worked at least six innings in all four starts this season, giving up only seven earned runs in 24 1/3 innings pitched. Note that Williams hasn't thrown more than 98 pitches since way back on September 3rd last year. He has held the D'Backs to four earned runs in 12 innings in two career home starts against them, with the 'under' going 2-0. Take the under (9*). | |||||||
04-23-19 | Braves v. Reds UNDER 8.5 | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. Kevin Gausman has quietly gotten the job done for the Braves through his first three starts this season, working at least into the sixth inning in all three trips to the hill, giving up just six earned runs in 19 2/3 innings of work. Gausman struck out 10 while walking only one over seven frames, needing only 99 pitches to get through his most recent start. Sonny Gray will counter for Cincinnati. He has worked at least six innings in two of his last three starts. His other start over that stretch saw him work four perfect innings of two-hit ball against the Marlins. Note that the 'under' has cashed in all four of Gray's starts this season. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-22-19 | Rockets v. Jazz +2.5 | 91-107 | Win | 100 | 15 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah plus the points over Houston at 10:35 pm et on Monday. After the Jazz were favored in Game 3 of this series on Saturday night, the line has flipped in advance of Game 4 - not surprising given the Rockets can deliver the knockout blow to Utah on Monday night in Salt Lake City. I don't expect the Jazz to go down without a fight, however, and will grab all the points I can get with them as they make their last stand on Monday. The Rockets have now won five straight meetings in this series but the Jazz do have two wins to their credit over Houston this season. There were certainly positives to take away from Saturday's loss, the least of which being the fact that Utah was in the game right down to the final whistle, actually leading but as many as eight points, and carrying a two-point lead heading into the fourth quarter. The Jazz won't shoot as poorly from the three-point line as they did in Game 3 (12-of-41). Look for that to be a difference-maker in this one. Take Utah (10*). | |||||||
04-22-19 | Diamondbacks v. Pirates UNDER 7.5 | 12-4 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' at PNC Park on Monday night. Zack Godley will take the ball for the D'Backs. His overall numbers haven't been great but I do like the fact that he has worked at least into the sixth inning in all four starts, and he's pitched well against the Pirates in his career, going six innings in each of his two outings against them, allowing only five earned runs in those 12 innings of work. Joe Musgrove will counter for the Buccos. He's worked into the seventh inning in all three starts this season, giving up only two earned runs on 13 hits over 20 1/3 innings pitched. Musgrove hasn't allowed a home run in his last five starts going back to last season. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-21-19 | Braves v. Indians UNDER 8 | 11-5 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Cleveland at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. I love the way this one sets up as a pitching duel between two young starts in Sam Fried and Shane Bieber on Sunday Night Baseball. Fried has been outstanding for the Braves, working six innings in three straight starts, allowing only two earned runs on 13 hits over 18 innings of work. Likewise, Bieber has worked at least six innings in three straight starts, allowing only three earned runs in 19 frames. The 'under' has cashed in each of his last three outings. Note that Bieber hasn't allowed a home run in his last two starts. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-21-19 | Warriors v. Clippers +9.5 | 113-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Golden State at 3:35 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Clippers in Game 2 of this series but stayed away in Game 3 as the Warriors bounced back in a big way. Golden State is still one of the worst bets in the NBA and I won't hesitate to fade it again as it looks to grab a commanding 3-1 lead in the series. Los Angeles couldn't have played any worse in Game 3 as it shot just 37% from the field including 22% from beyond the arc. That wasn't unexpected as the Clips suffered a major hangover after that huge 31-point rally in Game 2. Here, I look for L.A. to get off to a better start and hang with the Warriors for four quarters. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
04-21-19 | Nationals v. Marlins UNDER 7 | 5-0 | Win | 104 | 5 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Miami at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in this matchup last night but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Sunday. Stephen Strasburg will take the ball for the Nationals. He has thrown fewer than 100 pitches in back-to-back starts and checks in having worked at least six innings in three of four starts this season. He faced the Marlins twice last September, allowing only three earned runs in 10 innings of work. Trevor Richards will counter for Miami. He struggled against the Cubs last time out but had previous worked six innings in three straight starts, giving up just four earned runs on 10 hits over 18 frames. The 'under' is 3-2-1 in his last six trips to the hill. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-20-19 | Mariners v. Angels UNDER 9 | 6-5 | Loss | -117 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and Los Angeles at 9:07 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'under' at Angel Stadium on Saturday night. Yusei Kikuchi will take the ball for the Mariners. He has worked six innings in three of his last four starts, allowing exactly three earned runs on five hits over each of his last two outings. I like how economical Kikuchi has been this season, having yet to throw more than 93 pitches in any of his five starts. Veteran Trevor Cahill will counter for Los Angeles. He was outstanding in his first start against Seattle this season, allowing just one earned run on three hits over six innings in a 2-1 loss back on April 2nd. Cahill had worked six innings in each of his first three outings this season before getting roughed up by Texas last time out. He has yet to throw more than 90 pitches in a start this year. Both teams broke out offensively in the opener of this series on Thursday but things settled back down last night and the Mariners have now scored five runs or less in five of their last six games while the Angels have plated four runs or less in three of their last four. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-20-19 | Nationals v. Marlins UNDER 7 | 3-9 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Miami at 6:10 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'under' in the opener of this series last night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Saturday. Max Scherzer will take the ball for the Nationals. He has now worked at least into the seventh inning in three of four starts this season and is coming off arguably his best outing of the campaign, needing only 98 pitches to go eight innings against the Pirates last time out, albeit in a 4-3 loss. In Scherzer's last three starts against the Marlins he has allowed only one earned run in 21 innings of work. Jose Urena will counter for the Marlins. After struggling in his first three starts he bounced back and allowed only one earned run over seven innings against the Phillies in his last outing. He gave up just five earned runs in 21 innings of work against the Marlins last season. As noted in last night's writeup, neither of these clubs are scoring with any consistency right now. The Nats have scored four runs or less in six of their last seven contests and the Marlins have plated a grand total of six runs over their last five games. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-20-19 | 76ers v. Nets +2 | 112-108 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on Brooklyn plus the points over Philadelphia at 3:05 pm et on Saturday. I like the Nets to bounce back after dropping consecutive games to fall behind in this series. The 76ers were without Joel Embiid on Friday night but still managed to breeze past the Nets. It wasn't a focused or nearly desperate enough effort from the underdog Nets, but I expect to see them show a lot more pride and determination in what could amount to their last stand at home on Saturday afternoon. Keep in mind, the 76ers are a losing bet overall and just a .500 team on the road this season. The Nets come in off back-to-back ATS losses, but haven't dropped three in a row ATS since February 27th to March 2nd. Take Brooklyn (10*). | |||||||
04-19-19 | Giants v. Pirates UNDER 7.5 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' at PNC Park on Friday night. Madison Bumgarner has been the picture of consistency for the Giants so far this season, working at least six innings in all four starts. He has yet to throw 100 pitches in a start this season and enters this outing on five days' rest. The Pirates are winning but not scoring with much consistency, plating five runs or less in seven of their last eight contests. Jordan Lyles will take the ball for Pittsburgh. He has worked 11 innings this season, allowing only one earned run on six hits. In those two starts he threw just 80 and 87 pitches and hasn't made a start since April 10th so he should be fresh here. Note that the Giants have scored three runs or less in five of their last eight games overall. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-19-19 | Nationals v. Marlins UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
MLB N.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Miami at 7:10 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' at Marlins Park on Friday night. Veteran Anibal Sanchez will take the ball for the Nationals. His overall numbers haven't been great this season, but I like the fact that he's worked at least into the sixth inning in back-to-back starts, allowing five earned runs over 12 2/3 frames. He'll face a Marlins club that hasn't scored in their last two games and have played a grand total of three runs during their four-game skid. Caleb Smith will counter for Miami. Like Sanchez, he has also been working deep into ball games, lasting six innings in each of his last two outings, allowing only three earned runs on five hits. The Nats' have scored four runs or less in five of their last six games overall. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-19-19 | Raptors v. Magic +5 | 98-93 | Push | 0 | 12 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The oddsmakers are calling for a competitive affair between the Raptors and Magic on Friday night, and I'll side with them in this spot as Orlando should bounce back following a dreadful performance in Game 2. Despite the Raptors rout on Tuesday night at home, these two teams have split their six matchups this season. I don't believe the Magic will roll over and die with the series tied at one game apiece. Toronto is obviously the superior team, but Orlando has been the far better bet, going 46-37-1 ATS to date compared to the Raps 39-45 ATS mark. Take Orlando (10*). | |||||||
04-18-19 | Reds v. Padres UNDER 7.5 | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and San Diego at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' at Petco Park on Thursday night. Tanner Roark will take the ball for the Reds. He's coming off his best start of the young season having allowed just one earned run on six hits over 5 1/3 innings against the Cardinals last time out. The 'under' has cashed in two of his first three starts this season and three of four career outings against the Padres. San Diego isn't producing runs with any consistency having plated four or less in six of its last eight contests. Rookie Chris Paddack will counter for the Padres. He has been consistent to say the least through three starts this season, allowing only two earned runs on six hits over 14 innings of work. Like Roark, the 'under' has cashed in two of Paddack's three outings. I like the fact that Paddack enters off five days' rest and has yet to throw more than 89 pitches in a start this season. Cincinnati has scored a grand total of 11 runs during its current four-game slide. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-18-19 | Nuggets +4 v. Spurs | 108-118 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver plus the points over San Antonio at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. I think we'll see the Nuggets play with some desperation in this game, even though they evened up the series in Game 2. The last game certainly could have gone either way with Denver rallying big in the fourth quarter to not only win but cover the spread. Much will be made of the fact that the Spurs have won 13 straight games at home against the Nuggets but I really don't believe the players will pay any mind to that. Note that Denver fell just one point short (and covered the spread) the last time it played here in San Antonio back in early March. The spread was considerably shorter in that game than the number we're dealing with here. Take Denver (10*). | |||||||
04-17-19 | Jazz +7 v. Rockets | Top | 98-118 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Utah plus the points over Houston at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. After watching the Warriors stunning collapse in Game 2 of their matchup with the Clippers on Sunday night many have come to the conclusion that they're ripe for the picking in these playoffs, and that same majority also believes that the Rockets will be the team to ultimately dethrone the perennial champs. That's a narrative I believe is in play here with most forgetting that the Rockets still have some work to do before that, even if the opener of this series was no contest. I'm confident we'll see Utah bounce back with a much better effort on Wednesday night in Houston. This isn't a Jazz squad that rolled over at the end of the regular season. Utah entered the playoffs with some positive vibes and having split four regular season matchups with the Rockets, including a win here on this floor, I don't believe they'll be intimidated by the 0-1 hole, or the fact that they dropped Game 1 in blowout fashion. I'll grab all the points I can get with the Jazz here. Take Utah (10*). | |||||||
04-16-19 | Thunder +2 v. Blazers | 94-114 | Loss | -106 | 25 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Portland at 10:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Blazers prevailed in a hard-fought series opener on Sunday but I fully expect to see the Thunder answer back and steal home court advantage with a victory on Tuesday night. There's no intimidation factor at play here as the Thunder have already won two games on this floor since the start of 2019. And there's no reason for Oklahoma City to be rattled after Game 1. After all, the Thunder aren't likely to shoot as poorly from the three-point line again (5-for-33 in Game 1). There were plenty of positives for the Thunder to take away from that loss as they outrebounded the Blazers, nearly doubled them in fast break points and also had a 14-point edge in the paint. This has all the makings of a long, back-and-forth series. Take Oklahoma City (10*). | |||||||
04-16-19 | Rockies v. Padres UNDER 7 | 8-2 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and San Diego at 9:10 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'under' at Petco Park on Tuesday night. Jon Gray will take the ball for the Rockies. He's pitched well for Colorado through three starts this season but hasn't received much support at all - a grand total of just two runs in fact. Gray has worked at least six innings in all three starts. He's worked at least six innings in five of his last six outings against the Padres, allowing only three earned runs in his last three starts here in San Diego, spanning 19 innings of work. Rookie Nick Margevicius will take the ball for the Padres. He hasn't really been stretched out yet this season, throwing just 72, 54 and 77 pitches in his first three big league starts, but he's certainly held his own, allowing only three earned runs on nine hits over 16 innings. The 'under' has cashed in two of his first three outings. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-15-19 | Clippers +13.5 v. Warriors | 135-131 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Golden State at 10:30 pm et on Monday. The Warriors put together an outstanding performance in Game 1 of this series on Saturday but I believe it's going to be tough for them to repeat that effort against what will obviously be a highly-motivated Clippers squad on Monday night. A lot of the same reasoning from Saturday's play still applies here. It's not as if the Clips were completely outclassed for four quarters on Saturday, they know they can hang with the Warriors, just as they did in an extremely close two-point game right here on this floor back in December (the Clips also defeated the Warriors at home back in November). Despite their blowout win in Game 1, the Warriors are still a losing bet on the season by a considerable margin. Look for the Clips to hang tough(er) here. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
04-15-19 | Cubs v. Marlins UNDER 8.5 | 7-2 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Miami at 7:10 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' in Miami on Monday night. Yu Darvish will take the ball for the Cubs. After two relatively short starts to open the campaign, Darvish worked into the sixth inning last time out, and needed only 77 pitches to get through those 5 1/3 frames, allowing four earned runs on five hits along the way in a game that totaled only seven runs. Darvish has yet to throw more than 77 pitches in a start this season so despite pitching on only four days' rest here, his arm should be reasonably fresh and will be facing a Marlins lineup that has been held to one run or less in five of their last six games. Trevor Richards will counter for Miami. He has worked exactly six innings in three straight starts to open the season, making it five straight starts lasting at least six innings going back to last year. In his 18 innings pitched so far this season he has allowed just four earned runs on 10 hits. He faces a Cubs squad that has produced a grand total of 14 runs over their last four games. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-13-19 | Clippers +13 v. Warriors | Top | 104-121 | Loss | -115 | 32 h 31 m | Show |
NBA Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Golden State at 8 pm et on Saturday. The Clippers got steamrolled by the Warriors in a spot where many expected them to compete less than a week ago and now we’re dealing with an inflated pointspread as a result. Keep in mind, that was a competitive game until halftime, before the wheels came off for the Clips and the Warriors put up a 42-spot in the third quarter. From a high-level perspective, I don’t think a Western Conference title is going to come quite as easy for the Warriors as it has in years’ past. We’ve certainly seen chinks in the Dubs’ armor over the course of the season and to put it simply, they’ve been one of the worst ATS bets in the entire league. Conversely, few expected much out of the Clippers this season and while they stumbled down the stretch, there’s no question it has been a successful campaign, and I fully expect to see them play with a ‘nothing to lose’ mentality here in the opening round. I won’t call for an outright victory in Saturday’s series-opener, but I do look for the Clips to give the Warriors all they can handle in Oakland. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
04-13-19 | Magic v. Raptors -8.5 | 104-101 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto minus the points over Orlando at 5 pm et on Saturday. The Magic have had to scratch and claw their way for the better part of the last three months to just get into the NBA Playoffs and what do they earn for their troubles? A date with the second-ranked Raptors, a team that is not only supremely talented, but also highly-motivated to make this ‘the year’ that they finally get over the hump and win the Eastern Conference. I liked the way the Raptors didn’t ease off the gas pedal down the stretch, winning seven of their last eight games, including a 20-point rout of Minnesota on the second-last night of the regular season. During that stretch was also a 12-point win over these same Magic, a team that had gotten the better of them here in Toronto in late February (we won with the Magic as a big underdog in a 15-point outright win). The Raptors know that nothing is going to be handed to them, especially against a real tough-out of a first round opponent. With that being said, we’re dealing with a single-digit pointspread here, unlike the openers for the Bucks and Warriors, two other teams that I would certainly put the Raptors near or in the same class as. Much has been made of the Raptors brutal track record both SU and ATS in playoff openers, but I believe we see a different story unfold this year. Take Toronto (10*). | |||||||
04-12-19 | Astros v. Mariners UNDER 9 | Top | 10-6 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 2 m | Show |
MLB A.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Seattle at 10:10 pm et on Friday. I think we're dealing with an inflated total here, largely due to the terrific starts these two A.L. West clubs have gotten off to this season. Veteran Wade Miley will take the ball for Houston. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in each of his first two starts this season, needing only 87 and 95 pitches to get through those outings. Miley has done a tremendous job of keeping the ball in the park since the start of last season, allowing just four home runs in 92 1/3 innings of work. Wade LeBlanc will counter for the Mariners. Like Miley, he has also worked at least into the sixth inning in back-to-back starts to open the season. LeBlanc faced the Astros four times last season, pitching poorly in his first two outings against them before settling in over his last two, giving up just three earned runs on six hits over 10 1/3 innings in those last two starts. We know both teams can put up runs in bunches, but I look for a more tightly-contested affair to open this series. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-12-19 | Penguins -123 v. Islanders | 1-3 | Loss | -123 | 23 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh over New York at 7:30 pm et on Friday. Give the Penguins credit for weathering the storm early on and ultimately forcing overtime against a jacked-up Islanders squad in the opener of this series on Wednesday night. I do expect to see Pittsburgh even things up at a game apiece on Friday night on Long Island. Pittsburgh has seen plenty of adversity over the years, so falling behind 1-0 in this series shouldn't faze it one bit. I had this pegged as a long series from the outset so look for the Pens to respond with a hard-fought victory on Friday night. Take Pittsburgh (10*). | |||||||
04-11-19 | Hurricanes v. Capitals -140 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington over Carolina at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. The Hurricanes have been a trendy sleeper pick entering the playoffs and after watching the Blue Jackets rally to upset the top-seeded Lightning last night, will be looking to emulate that success here tonight in Washington. I don't see it happening, though. The Capitals finally got over the hump as a franchise last year, hoisting the Stanley Cup in June. While I'm not sure they'll repeat as champions this year, I do expect them to brush aside the upstart Hurricanes in the opening around, and it starts with a victory on home ice tonight. Look for the Caps defense that shine in this one as they stymie the Canes offense. Take Washington (10*). | |||||||
04-11-19 | Indians v. Tigers UNDER 7.5 | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 6 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Detroit at 1:10 pm et on Thursday. I'll go back to the well with the 'under' in a day game at Comerica Park on Thursday. The Indians will hand the ball to Shane Bieber. In his first start of the season he needed only 91 pitches to get through six innings, allowing only two hits and two earned runs along the way. He has now worked at least into the sixth inning in eight straight starts dating back to last season. Spencer Turnbull will counter for Detroit. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in three of his last four starts going back to last season and last time out, struck out 10 and gave up only two earned runs over six innings against the Royals. Keep in mind, the Indians aren't scoring with a great deal of consistency right now, having scored three runs or less in six of their last 10 games. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-10-19 | Marlins v. Reds UNDER 9 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
MLB Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' at Great American Ballpark on Wednesday night. Trevor Richards will take the ball for the Marlins. He has been sharp through his first two starts this season, working six innings in each outing, needing only 81 and 97 pitches to get through. In those 12 innings of work he has allowed only nine hits and four earned runs. Oddly enough, the 'over' has gone 1-0-1 in his two starts. The last time Richards faced the Reds he tossed seven shutout innings last September. Tyler Mahle will counter for the Reds. He was brilliant in his first start this season, tossing six shutout innings, allowing five hits and no walks, on the road against the Pirates. The last time he faced the Marlins he tossed six solid innings, allowing three earned runs on five hits and no walks. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-09-19 | Padres -116 v. Giants | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -116 | 15 h 26 m | Show |
MLB N.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on San Diego over San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the Padres as they look to continue to beat up on the struggling Giants on Tuesday night. Joey Lucchesi will take the ball for the Padres. He hasn't really been stretched out in his first two starts, but has certainly pitched well, allowing just seven hits over 9 1/3 shutout innings. He hasn't needed to throw more than 94 pitches since August 29th last year. Derek Holland will counter for San Francisco. He had a nice bounce-back season last year, posting a sub-4.00 ERA and making 30 starts. However, the fact remains he's been a losing pitcher in each of the last three seasons, going 21-33 over that stretch. The Giants have dropped six of his last seven starts overall. Holland has allowed a home run in each of his first two outings this season, while also issuing six walks in just nine innings of work. Take San Diego (10*). | |||||||
04-09-19 | Grizzlies v. Pistons -10 | Top | 93-100 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
NBA Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Detroit minus the points over Memphis at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. I really like the way this spot sets up for the Pistons on Tuesday night. Detroit is reeling right now, on the heels of four straight losses. Keep in mind, it has faced a tough schedule, with a home-and-home with the Pacers followed by a trip to Oklahoma City and a home game against Charlotte. Here, the Pistons catch a break hosting a beat up Grizzlies squad that is simply playing out the string, and fresh off an overtime loss to Dallas two nights ago. Despite dropping four straight games, the Pistons still rank in the top half of the league in terms of defensive rating over their last five contests. The Grizzlies on the other hand sit in the bottom-third of the league in both offensive and defensive rating over that same stretch. We're laying a generous helping of points here, but I believe the number is warranted. Take Detroit (10*). | |||||||
04-09-19 | Marlins v. Reds UNDER 8 | 0-14 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'under' as the Marlins face the Reds in Cincinnati on Tuesday evening. We missed the mark with the 'under' in Jose Urena's first start this season as the wheels came off against the Rockies. He followed that up with another stinker against the Mets. After struggling in those two home starts maybe hitting the road will actually be a good thing. Keep in mind, he closed last season working at least into the sixth inning in six of his last seven starts, holding the opposition to one earned run or less in six of those starts. He has had success against the Reds, allowing six earned runs on 13 hits in 17 2/3 innings against them. Note that he has allowed just one home run in those three outings, despite two of those starts coming in hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark. Luis Castillo will counter for Cincinnati. He has lasted at least into the sixth inning in each of his first two starts this season. That makes it five straight starts working at least into the sixth frame going back to last season. Castillo has given up only three hits and two earned runs in 12 2/3 innings of work so far this season, and has yet to allow a home run. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-08-19 | Texas Tech v. Virginia -1 | Top | 77-85 | Win | 100 | 24 h 54 m | Show |
NCAAB Game of the Month. My selection is on Virginia minus the points over Texas Tech at 9:20 pm et on Monday. We cashed a ticket with Auburn in its near-miss against Virginia on Saturday but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Cavaliers as they take on Texas Tech with the National Championship hanging in the balance on Monday night. This is all about the redemption story for Virginia as it looks to come full circle after being eliminated at the hands of a 16-seed in the opening round of last year's tournament. While Texas Tech has gone on what many consider to be a 'Cinderella run' in this tournament, the fact is, the Red Raiders are a three-seed that haven't really exceeded expectations by that wide of a margin. They're deserving of being here and should be able to give Virginia a run. With that being said, I simply don't see Texas Tech having many advantages here, as Virginia will be more than happy to slug it out with the Red Raiders for 40 minutes. The Cavaliers defense has come up big time and time again in this tournament and I anticipate more of the same on Monday night. Take Virginia (10*). | |||||||
04-08-19 | Dodgers v. Cardinals UNDER 8 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 22 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and St. Louis at 7:45 pm et on Monday. I'm anticipating a well-pitched game from both sides in this one as the Dodgers hand the ball to Hyun-Jin Ryu against Miles Mikolas and the Cardinals. Ryu has been terrific in the early going this season, working at least six innings in each of his first two starts, allowing only three earned runs on 10 hits while striking out 13 and not issuing a single walk. He needed only 82 and 87 pitches to get through those two outings. Mikolas has worked just five innings in his first two starts, but both of those came on the road. Note that he worked at least six innings in six of his last seven home outings last season. He did pitch better in his last start than he did in his season debut, limiting the Pirates to three earned runs over five frames. Mikolas of course enjoyed a breakout campaign last year, going 18-4 with a sub-3.00 ERA. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-07-19 | Pelicans +9.5 v. Kings | 133-129 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Sacramento at 9:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll grab the points with the Pelicans as they travel to Sacramento to face the Kings on Sunday. New Orleans has now lost three games in a row but did manage to push Phoenix to overtime last time out. The Pelicans last victory actually came against these same Kings on March 28th. Sacramento has stumbled down the stretch, dropping four of its last six games, with three of those losses coming by double-digits. The Pelicans rank 12th in the league in offensive rating over their last five games. There's not a lot separating these two squads over that stretch in terms of defensive rating or pace rating. This has been a competitive series this season, with the Pelicans taking two of three meetings. The lone game the Kings did win over New Orleans came by just five points. Take New Orleans (10*). | |||||||
04-07-19 | A's v. Astros UNDER 8.5 | 8-9 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Oakland and Houston at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. The 'under' has gone an incredible 17-4 in games involving the A's and Astros this season and I like the way Sunday's series finale sets up as another relatively low-scoring affair. Mike Fiers will take the ball for Oakland. He has tossed six innings of shutout ball over each of his last two starts. The most impressive part is that he needed just 83 and 81 pitches to get through those outings. Fiers faced the Astros once as a member of the Tigers last season, right here in Houston, and gave up just three earned runs in six innings. Brad Peacock will counter for Houston. He worked into the seventh inning in his first start this season, needed only 86 pitches to go 6 2/3 innings. Peacock has worked at least into the sixth inning in four of his last five starts against Oakland and his last three starts against the A's here in Houston have totaled seven runs or less. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-06-19 | Dodgers v. Rockies UNDER 10 | 7-2 | Win | 101 | 23 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Colorado at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. We saw a slugfest between these two teams yesterday afternoon but I'm confident things will settled own on Saturday as the Dodgers send Walker Buehler to the hill against Jon Gray. Buehler was not sharp in his season debut against the D'Backs, allowing five earned runs over just three innings of work. On a positive note, his arm will certainly be well rested after only throwing 55 pitches in that outing. Note that he has tossed 12 2/3 innings while not allowing a single earned run over his last two starts against the Rockies. Jon Gray was outstanding in his first start of the campaign, tossing 6 2/3 innings, allowing only five hits and three earned runs while striking out 10 and walking just one. He needed only 89 pitches to get through that outing. That game featured just three total runs. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-06-19 | 76ers -9.5 v. Bulls | Top | 116-96 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. The Bulls are coming off a rare victory last time out, a narrow one-point win over the lowly Wizards. That was their first win in six games so there's no reason to start planning the parade. The 76ers have dropped three games in a row, both SU and ATS. I really feel Philadelphia can run Chicago right of of the gym tonight, noting that despite its recent struggles to find the win column, Philly ranks third in the league in pace rating over its last five contests. The Sixers are also in the top half of the league in offensive rating over that stretch while the Bulls check in a miserable 28th. Both teams are banged up but Philadelphia is in better position to come up with a complete effort here. Take Philadelphia (10*). | |||||||
04-06-19 | Auburn +6 v. Virginia | 62-63 | Win | 100 | 21 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Auburn plus the points over Virginia at 6:09 pm et on Saturday. Not a lot of respect is being given to the Auburn Tigers based on this pointspread. The Tigers' Final Four run has been impressive to say the least as they've taken down Kansas, North Carolina and Kentucky over their last three games. I don't need to tell you that's no easy task. I don't believe there's a significant intimidation factor at play here against Virginia, a team that has been bludgeoning the opposition with its defense, but can always go ice cold offensively at the drop of a hat. I'm not sure that the Cavaliers have the ability to ever completely put this game away, so I'll gladly grab the generous helping of points with the upstart Tigers as they aim to play giant-killer one more time. Take Auburn (10*). | |||||||
04-05-19 | Spurs v. Wizards +6.5 | Top | 129-112 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Washington plus the points over San Antonio at 7:05 pm et on Friday. This may look like a gimme for the Spurs to 'get right' following an uneven stretch, but I believe they're in for a battle with the Wizards. San Antonio has won just three times in its last eight games and only one of those SU wins came ATS as well. Meanwhile, the Wizards returned home from what should be considered a successful 2-2 road trip only to lose to the Bulls (by a single point). They still check in 3-1 ATS over their last four contests. Over their last five games, the Wiz rank seventh in the league in pace rating. They're just 20th in offensive rating over that same stretch, but keep in mind that's only one spot behind the Spurs. In terms of defensive rating, Washington is right around the middle of the league (at 16th) over its last five games while San Antonio sits 24th. The Wiz hung 119 points on the Spurs back in January, but still lost. Expect a competitive affair here. Take Washington (10*). | |||||||
04-05-19 | Rays v. Giants UNDER 7 | 5-2 | Push | 0 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and San Francisco at 4:35 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' in San Francisco on Friday afternoon. Tyler Glasnow will take the ball for the Rays. He worked only five innings in his season debut, but gave up just one earned run and needed only 77 pitches. Keep in mind, Glasnow closed out last season working at least into the sixth inning in four straight starts, and didn't throw more than 98 pitches in any of those starts. Derek Rodriguez will counter for the Giants. He also worked just five innings in his first start of the season, allowing two earned runs on four hits (didn't issue a single walk). He was also economical, needing only 71 pitches. Going back to the end of last season, he had worked at least six innings in four of his last five starts, throwing more than 93 pitches only once over that stretch. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-05-19 | Mariners v. White Sox UNDER 8 | 8-10 | Loss | -106 | 6 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and Chicago at 2:10 pm et on Friday. I like the pitching matchup here as the Mariners send Yusei Kikuchi to the mound against Reynaldo Lopez. Kikuchi held his own in his last start, working six innings and allowing only two earned runs on four hits, needing only 86 pitches to do so, against the Red Sox. He was roughed up in his season debut over in Tokyo but I do think there are bright days ahead for left-hander. Reynaldo Lopez did not have a good first start for the White Sox, but I like the bounce-back potential here. Keep in mind, Lopez was sharp in his final start of spring training, working 6 1/3 innings while giving up just three earned runs. He closed last season working at least six frames in six consecutive starts, allowing two earned runs or less in each of those starts. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-04-19 | Royals v. Tigers UNDER 8 | 4-5 | Loss | -113 | 16 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and Detroit at 1:10 pm et on Thursday. I believe this one sets up as an excellent pitching matchup between two young arms in Jakob Junis and Spencer Turnbull on Thursday afternoon. Junis worked into the sixth inning in his first start this season, allowing only three earned runs while striking out six and walking just one, needing only 92 pitches to get through that outing. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in nine of his last 10 starts going back to last season, allowing three earned runs or less in all but one of those outings as well. Turnbull lasted just five innings in his season debut in Toronto last week, but pitched well, giving up only three earned runs on four hits, throwing 91 pitches. Three of his first four big league starts have come on the road. He has pitched well in three of those four outings and I see this as a favorable matchup for the 26-year old right-hander. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-03-19 | Knicks v. Magic -12 | 100-114 | Win | 100 | 22 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando minus the points over New York at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Magic continue to exceed expectations at every turn and while they are coming off a double-digit loss in Toronto on Monday, I look for them to bounce back against the lowly Knicks on Wednesday night. Orlando checks in just outside the top 10 in the league in offensive rating over its last five games and should feast on a non-existent Knicks defense here. While the Magic's defense has lagged a bit of late, it's important to note that they're coming off a four-game road trip that closed with matchups against the Pistons, Pacers and Raptors. The Knicks are coming off a rare win on Monday night against the Bulls, but they should be right back into 'tank mode' on Wednesday night. There's really no benefit in winning these games down the stretch and it has showed with New York dropping six straight prior to Monday's victory. The Knicks did take the most recent meeting in this series, but prior to that it was three straight blowout wins for the Magic. Take Orlando (10*). | |||||||
04-03-19 | Rockies v. Rays UNDER 7 | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 16 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Tampa Bay at 1:10 pm et on Wednesday. Love the way this one sets up as a pitcher's duel between German Marquez and Charlie Morton. Both starters appeared to be in midseason form in their debuts this season, with Marquez allowing only two hits and one earned run over six innings, needing only 93 pitches to get through that outing. Meanwhile, Morton worked only five innings, but gave up just three hits and two earned runs while striking out eight and waking only two, needing just 85 pitches. Going back to last season, Morton hasn't allowed a home run in his last four starts. Morton has worked at least into the sixth inning in seven of his last eight starts against the Rockies, which is certainly impressive given that four of those starts came at hitter-friendly Coors Field. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-01-19 | Cavs v. Suns -2 | 113-122 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Cleveland at 10:05 pm et on Monday. We cashed yet another ticket fading the Suns on Saturday night against Memphis but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back them as they host the lowly Cavs on Monday night. The Suns have certainly gone in the tank lately, but so have the Cavs. It's been over two weeks since Phoenix last won a game but it's worth noting it has played only six games since, and it hasn't faced the easiest of schedules. The Cavs enter riding a five-game losing streak and save for a six-point loss in San Antonio, haven't really been close in their last four contests. Tonight's game will mark their fourth game in the last seven nights, in a fourth different city. I'll lay the short number with the Suns as they finally notch a win on this homestand. Take Phoenix (10*). | |||||||
03-31-19 | Grizzlies +9 v. Clippers | 96-113 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:35 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Grizzlies in Phoenix last night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Sunday as they head to Los Angeles to face the Clippers. Memphis certainly hasn't quite on the season, as evidenced by its even 3-3 record over its last six games. The Grizzlies have gone 4-2 ATS over that stretch. The Clippers are fresh off a blowout win here at home, but that came against the lowly Cavs. Their previous three home wins came by seven points or less. This has been a tightly-contested series with six of the last seven meetings decided by single digits, with the only double-digit margin coming by way of a 10-point Memphis victory earlier this season. Take Memphis (10*). | |||||||
03-31-19 | Auburn v. Kentucky -4.5 | 77-71 | Loss | -104 | 6 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kentucky minus the points over Auburn at 2:20 pm et on Sunday. The injury to Chuma Okeke is obviously key in this matchup. While it's certainly been reflected in the pointspread, I'm not sure enough weight has been given. He's been doing it all for the Tigers, and in what could become a bit more of a slugfest than the Tigers are used to on Sunday, his rebounding ability will truly be missed. The Wildcats didn't get a lot of press entering this tournament, a little bit odd for John Calipari's program. They've quietly gone about their business and are now one win away from the Final Four. The Wildcats are one of the best shooting teams in the nation, knocking down just shy of 48% of their shots, but it's been their defense that has really come up big in this tourney, allowing 44, 56 and 58 points in three games. Take Kentucky (10*). | |||||||
03-30-19 | Grizzlies -1.5 v. Suns | 120-115 | Win | 100 | 14 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Memphis minus the points over Phoenix at 10:05 pm et on Saturday. The Suns have gone in the 'tank' so to speak over the last couple of weeks. Their lone win over their last eight games came in a wild overtime game that was essentially handed to them in New Orleans two weeks ago (we won with Phoenix on that night). The Grizzlies have faced a pretty tough recent schedule but have managed to go 3-2 ATS over their last five contests. Note that they rank ahead of the Suns in terms of both offensive and defensive rating over that stretch. Both teams are dealing with a number of key injuries. I simply feel the Grizzlies are in better position to battle through on Saturday night. Take Memphis (10*). | |||||||
03-30-19 | Purdue +4.5 v. Virginia | 75-80 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 14 m | Show | |
NCAAB Elite Eight Game of the Year. My selection is on Purdue plus the points over Virginia at 8:49 pm et on Saturday. I'll grab the points with the Boilermakers as they look to continue their quasi-Cinderella run in the NCAA Tournament on Saturday night. Top-seeded Virginia has looked good, but not great in this tournament. The Cavaliers will be in for a stiff challenge here as the Boilers have been playing with a nothing to lose mentality since the start of this tournament. In what projects to be a relatively low-scoring affair on Saturday night (unlike Purdue's wild overtime win over Tennessee on Thursday), I'm comfortable grabbing the nearly handful of points in a game that could very well go right down to the wire. Take Purdue (10*). | |||||||
03-29-19 | Wizards v. Jazz -12 | 124-128 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah minus the points over Washington at 9:05 pm et on Friday. The Jazz are really rounding into form with the playoffs quickly approaching, winners of eight of their last nine games overall, going 7-2 ATS over that stretch. Over their last five games, the Jazz rank in a tie for eighth in the league in pace rating, second in offensive rating and third in defensive rating. It doesn't get much better than that. Meanwhile, the Wizards are, or at least should be in tank mode. They're coming off a win over the lowly Suns in Phoenix, but that was just their first victory in their last six contests. Over their last five games, the Wiz rank 19th in pace rating, a reasonable 12th in offensive rating but 27th in defensive rating. I don't believe they can stay within arm's reach of the rolling Jazz on Friday night. Take Utah (10*). | |||||||
03-29-19 | LSU v. Michigan State -6 | 63-80 | Win | 100 | 22 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Michigan State minus the points over LSU at 7:09 pm et on Friday. There's a class difference between these two teams that I'm not sure is being properly accounted for in this pointspread. LSU is here thanks to a truly ugly win over Maryland last Saturday. Save for a slow start against Bradley in the opening round, the Spartans haven't really been tested. Over their last three halves of basketball, they've outscored the opposition by a whopping 112-80 margin. Defense, and the poise of Cassius Winston should ultimately be the difference in this matchup as I have Michigan State winning by a comfortable margin. Take Michigan State (10*). | |||||||
03-28-19 | Oregon v. Virginia -8 | 49-53 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Virginia minus the points over Oregon at 9:57 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Cavaliers in the Round of 32 and I wont' hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as they take on upstart Oregon on Thursday night. The Ducks are quite simply the hottest bet in the tournament, entering this game riding a 10-game SU and ATS winning streak. However, without question this will be their toughest test since the start of that stretch. Virginia has looked extremely focused in this tournament so far, which is no real surprise after last year's stunning opening round loss to 16-seed UMBC. I still don't think the Cavaliers are getting as much attention as they should be - keep in mind, they're now an impressive 24-10 ATS this season. Virginia is a perfect 2-0 SU and ATS in this series, with its last victory over Oregon coming back in 2011. Expect to see the same story unfold on Thursday night. Take Virginia (10*). | |||||||
03-28-19 | Raptors -11.5 v. Knicks | 117-92 | Win | 100 | 22 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto minus the points over New York at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. The Raptors have certainly been playing an uneven brand of basketball lately and enter this contest on a three-game ATS losing streak. With that being said, I believe this is a blowout in the making, much like back on March 18th when the Raps rolled past the Knicks by 36 points. Despite their lack of recent success, the Raps check in ranked sixth in the league in defensive rating over their last five games. Offensively, it's a similar story as they rank seventh in the NBA over that same stretch. By contrast, the Knicks are where you would expect them to be in terms of defensive rating, pulling up the rear in 30th spot over their last five contests. Their offensive rating hasn't been quite as bad, but they still check in 21st. If there's an opponent the Raptors are comfortable playing against when they're back on their heels a bit, it's the Knicks, as they've gone 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings in this series. Take Toronto (10*). | |||||||
03-28-19 | Rockies v. Marlins UNDER 8 | 6-3 | Loss | -120 | 20 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Miami at 4:10 pm et on Thursday. There's a good chance this one turns into a pitcher's duel between two starters that should become household names this season. Kyle Freeland closed out Spring Training with a fine six-inning outing last Saturday, giving up three earned runs against the Cubs. Going back to last season, he closed out his 2018 campaign by working at least into the sixth inning in each of his last 14 starts. He didn't allow more than three earned runs a single time over that stretch. Jose Urena will counter for Miami. He tossed three innings of perfect ball in his final Spring Training start. He closed last season working at least into the sixth inning in six of his last seven starts, giving up an earned run or less in all but one of those outings. The lone rocky start in that stretch came against the eventual World Champion Red Sox at Fenway Park. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-28-19 | Pirates v. Reds UNDER 8 | 3-5 | Push | 0 | 19 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Cincinnati at 4:10 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' between the Pirates and Reds on Thursday afternoon. Jameson Taillon will take the ball for the Pirates. He didn't pitch particularly well in his spring finale but I like the fact that he didn't issue a single walk while striking out 11 in three March starts. The young right-hander closed last season working at least six innings in four straight starts, including an outing here in Cincinnati when he gave up three earned runs over six frames. Luis Castillo will counter for the Reds. He went on a terrific three-start run at the end of last season, working 21 1/3 innings while allowing only 13 hits and two earned runs. He walked a single batter or less in six of his last eight starts last season. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-27-19 | Blazers -7 v. Bulls | 118-98 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Portland minus the points over Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. I don't like the spot for the Bulls here as they return home off a reasonably close loss in Toronto last night. Chicago is in full-on tank mode as far as I'm concerned. They do have a couple of recent wins but one of those came by way of overtime against the lowly Wizards and the other came against one of the league's worst teams in the Suns (we won with the Bulls in that game). Portland is undermanned to be sure with C.J. McCollum already sidelined and now Josef Nurkic out of action as well. Seth Curry and Enes Kanter will be looked upon to pick up the slack with the former already having done so over the last several games. I expect to see the Blazers take care of business here, noting they rank fourth in the league in offensive rating over their last five games. By contrast, the Bulls are 29th in that category over that stretch. Take Portland (10*). | |||||||
03-26-19 | Hawks +1.5 v. Pelicans | 130-120 | Win | 100 | 13 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over New Orleans at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. While the Pelicans are in full-on tank mode right now (whether by choice or not), the Hawks have actually shown some fight, and enter this game off back-to-back wins over two quality opponents in the Jazz and 76ers. In fact, Atlanta has been one of the best bets in the entire league in recent weeks, going 12-4 ATS over its last 16 games. It's also worth noting that the Hawks rank first in the league in pace rating over their last five games. While their offensive rating leaves something to be desired, I do think they can take advantage of a Pelicans squad that has been even worse in that regard, ranking 21st in the league in defensive rating over their last five contests. The Hawks are 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS against the Pelicans since the start of 2017. While it's never comfortable backing a team that sits 15 games under .500 on the road, I believe a play is warranted here. Take Atlanta (10*). | |||||||
03-25-19 | Nets +6.5 v. Blazers | 144-148 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Brooklyn plus the points over Portland at 10:05 pm et on Monday. I'll grab the points with the Nets, who will be shooting their third straight win on Monday night in Portland. Despite allowing 118 and 112 points in their last two games, both victories, the Nets still check in top 10 in the league in defensive rating over their last five games. They catch the Blazers in a favorable spot here. Brooklyn is coming off two days of rest while Portland escaped with a narrow five-point win over Detroit on Saturday and will have an eye on a four-game road trip that begins on Wednesday night in Chicago. While the Blazers have won six of their last seven games it's worth noting that four of those victories came by single-digit margins. Take Brooklyn (10*). | |||||||
03-24-19 | Oklahoma v. Virginia -10.5 | 51-63 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on Virginia minus the points over Oklahoma at 7:45 pm et on Sunday. Virginia got a bit of a scare from Gardner-Webb in the opening round of this tournament on Friday but that shouldn't really come as a surprise, as the Cavaliers have been slow starters all season. I expect to see the Cavaliers come out with more focus this time around as they face a much tougher challenge against the Sooners. Oklahoma had no trouble at all cruising past Ole Miss in its tournament opener, scoring 95 points in a rout. It was one of the most impressive performances of the entire opening round. The Sooners will be involved in a much different game here, however, as the Cavaliers will of course look to slow things down and play to their strengths. Look for Virginia's suffocating defense to ultimately win out as the Cavs pull away for a convincing victory. Take Virginia (10*). | |||||||
03-23-19 | Villanova +4 v. Purdue | Top | 61-87 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 22 m | Show |
NCAAB Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Villanova plus the points over Purdue at 9 pm et on Saturday. I'll grab the points with the Wildcats in a game I believe they can win outright. Villanova ultimately failed to cover for us in their tournament opener, settling for a push in a four-point win over St. Mary's. Watching that game I didn't feel that it was quite as close as the final score indicated, however. I'm not sure we've seen Villanova's best game yet, really going back to the start of the Big East Tournament, which it did win. Purdue won and covered, narrowly, against Old Dominion in its Thursday matchup. The Boilermakers are good, but not great, and I really don't think there's any sort of intimidation factor at play here. Give me Jay Wright's defending national champion Wildcats over Matt Painter's Boilers on Saturday night. Take Villanova (10*). | |||||||
03-22-19 | Spurs v. Rockets -6 | Top | 105-111 | Push | 0 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
NBA Southwest Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Houston minus the points over San Antonio at 8:05 pm et on Friday. With the Spurs having won nine of their last 10 games overall this one will be pegged as a showdown between two of the West's best teams on Friday night. Keep in mind, San Antonio has played eight of its last 10 contests at home. The Spurs are just 13-22 on the road this season, where they rank a miserable 28th in the league in defensive rating. The Rockets are coming off a tough overtime loss in Memphis two nights ago, but had gone a perfect 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS over their previous three games. This hasn't been a favorable matchup for the Spurs in Houston, with the Rockets winning their last three meetings on this floor by 15, 16 and 7 points. Take Houston (10*). | |||||||
03-22-19 | Cal-Irvine v. Kansas State -4.5 | Top | 70-64 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 54 m | Show |
NCAAB Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Kansas State minus the points over Cal-Irvine at 2 pm et on Friday. I'll lay the points with the Wildcats on Friday afternoon. Cal-Irvine has become a trendy upset pick here in round one of the NCAA Tournament, largely due to an injury to Dean Wade of Kansas State. The fact is, that Wade injury has essentially been common knowledge since before this line was released. In other words, it has already been factored into the pointspread, which I believe is simply too short. It's easy to forget that Kansas State went on a serious run in this tournament last year, winning three games before bowing out to Cinderella team Loyola-Chicago. Most of the players from that Wildcats squad are back this year and I believe they come in with a chip on their shoulder after bowing out of the Big 12 Tournament at the hands of Iowa State last weekend. The Wildcats have lost only three games since the start of February with two of those coming against Iowa State and the other against Kansas. Cal-Irvine hasn't lost since January 16th but has it really been tested? The Anteaters are without a doubt a formidable opponent but I like Kansas State to ultimately pull away for the win and cover. Take Kansas State (10*). | |||||||
03-22-19 | Iowa v. Cincinnati -4 | 79-72 | Loss | -109 | 15 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cincinnati minus the points over Iowa at 12:15 pm et on Friday. I believe Cincinnati is a vastly underrated commodity entering this tournament. Yes, the Bearcats have limped to a 14-20 ATS mark this season but they got themselves on a nice run in the AAC Tournament, culminating with an upset win over Houston in the final. Cincinnati checks in having delivered the cash in two of its last three contests. Iowa has just one win to its credit over its last six games and that came against an awful Illinois squad. The Illini's only other win over their last eight games came by way of overtime at home against another non-NCAA Tournament team in Indiana. As bad as the Bearcats have been ATS this season, the Hawkeyes have been even worse, going 13-20 ATS. Look for Mick Cronin's Bearcats to perform above expectations in their first game of the tournament. Take Cincinnati (10*). | |||||||
03-21-19 | Pistons v. Suns +7.5 | 118-98 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix plus the points over Detroit at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. I'll grab the points with the Suns on Thursday night. Save for a win over the Raptors on Sunday, the Pistons have been struggling lately. They check in last in the league in pace rating over their last five games while also sitting a miserable 29th in offensive rating and 22nd in defensive rating over that stretch. The Suns continue to force the issue, ranking fifth in pace rating and I believe they can give some headaches in this one. While Phoenix is by no means known for its defensive prowess, it does sit a reasonable 15th in the league in defensive rating over its last five contests. We've actually cashed tickets in each of the Suns last two games, winning with them in New Orleans on Saturday before fading them against the Bulls at home on Monday. Look for a solid bounce-back effort against a Pistons squad that is having a tough time on the road. Take Phoenix (10*). | |||||||
03-21-19 | St. Mary's v. Villanova -4 | Top | 57-61 | Push | 0 | 23 h 56 m | Show |
NCAA Tournament First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Villanova minus the points over St. Mary's at 7:20 pm et on Thursday. The St. Mary's Gaels are coming off a high-profile upset win over Gonzaga to secure the WCC Tournament title last week. They clearly caught the Bulldogs looking ahead to a one-seed in this tournament, and also napping a bit after taking the two regular season matchups with relative ease. I like the way the well-coached Villanova Wildcats come into this game after gutting out a couple of tight wins to wrap up another Big East Tournament championship last weekend. Despite being a marked team as the defending national champions, the Wildcats have still managed to post a solid 20-14 ATS record this season. The last time these two schools met was the 2010 NCAA Tournament and we actually cashed with the Gaels in an outright underdog victory in that Round of 32 affair. That was a team led by Matthew Dellavedova, Omar Samhan and Mickey McConnell. The line here is similar, but I believe the gap is wider favoring the Wildcats. Villanova may not be poised to repeat as national champions, but I do expect it to advance on to the Round of 32 with a convincing victory on Thursday night. Take Villanova (10*). | |||||||
03-21-19 | Fairleigh Dickinson v. Gonzaga -27.5 | 49-87 | Win | 100 | 23 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Gonzaga minus the points over Fairleigh Dickinson at 7:25 pm et on Thursday. I'll lay the points with the one-seed Bulldogs on Thursday as they begin their NCAA Tournament march against Fairleigh Dickinson. There's no need to overthink this one. FDU is used to knocking down close to 50% of its shots but won't come close to approaching that shooting percentage here. Gonzaga has played lock-down defense all season, holding the opposition to just over 65 points per game on below 39% shooting. Sure, the Bulldogs suffered a hiccup in the WCC Tournament championship game, falling to rival St. Mary's but I don't think they lost too much sleep over it. Gonzaga may have got caught looking past the Gaels, but will undoubtedly be up for this one. FDU hasn't lost since February 14th, but that was a 25-point setback, at home no less. This is also a team that lost by 35 points against Rutgers to open the season. The class difference between these two squads is being property represented with this lofty line. Take Gonzaga (10*). | |||||||
03-21-19 | Minnesota v. Louisville -5 | 86-76 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on Louisville minus the points over Minnesota at 12:15 pm et on Thursday. I realize that this is going to be a popular pick on Thursday afternoon but that doesn't mean it's the wrong one. This Minnesota squad doesn't impress me at all. We're talking about a Gophers team that ultimately posted a losing record in conference play, albeit against a tough Big Ten slate. I really question how much the Gophers have left in the tank right now after looking completely out of sorts in a blowout loss to Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament last week. Much like Minnesota, Louisville limps into this one after getting outclassed by North Carolina in the ACC Tournament. I give the Cardinals the considerable edge at the free throw line and on the glass in this matchup and I think that's ultimately what this game comes down to. Everyone remembers that loss to UNC and a blowout loss at Syracuse in a nationally-televised game back in late February. Outside of those poor showings, the Cards have been solid and while we're only worried about round one, they could be poised to go on a run in this tournament. Take Louisville (10*). | |||||||
03-20-19 | Celtics +3 v. 76ers | 115-118 | Push | 0 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston plus the points over Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. There's no question the Celtics have had the 76ers number this season and can earn a sweep of the season series with a victory on Wednesday night. The 76ers are playing excellent basketball having not lost since March 8th against Houston but I look for the C's to get the better of them once again. Boston will be highly-motivated for this game coming off a nine-point home loss to the Nuggets on Monday. Prior to that, the Celtics had been playing well, winners of five of their previous six contests. That all got started with a resounding 128-95 win over the Warriors in Oakland back on March 5th. I see this as a similar motivational spot against the rival 76ers. No surprise at all if this isn't the last meeting between these two teams this season. For now I'll give the Celtics the edge in an underdog role. Take Boston (10*). | |||||||
03-19-19 | Nets v. Kings -4 | 123-121 | Loss | -106 | 16 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento minus the points over Brooklyn at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the Kings in a rout of the Bulls on Sunday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as Sacramento hosts Brooklyn. The Nets have gone 0-3 on their current road trip, albeit against some tough opposition. While Brooklyn is coming off an ATS cover against the Clippers, it's worth noting that it hasn't notched back-to-back ATS wins since February 23rd and 25th. The Kings enter this game ranked tied for third in the NBA in pace rating over their last five games. While the Nets aren't far behind sitting seventh, the Kings have been making more of their opportunities, ranking 14th in offensive rating over that same stretch while the Nets rank 28th. Brooklyn sits well ahead of Sacramento in defensive rating but that's largely due to an outlier against the Pistons in which it gave up just 75 points last week. The Nets took the first meeting in this series this season by a whopping 29 points but the Kings had won consecutive meetings prior to that. Take Sacramento (10*). | |||||||
03-18-19 | Bulls +3 v. Suns | 116-101 | Win | 100 | 24 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Phoenix at 10:05 pm et on Monday. We won with the Suns on Saturday as they were essentially handed the game by the Pelicans in the closing seconds. We also cashed a ticket fading the Bulls on Sunday as they were crushed by the Kings in Sacramento. With that being said, I'm confident backing Chicago plus the points on Monday night as it aims to bounce back in Phoenix. The Suns are rolling along right now ATS but this marks the first time they've been favored in a game since March 6th against the Knicks. Keep in mind, they're just 10-24 SU at home this season. The Bulls have actually been slightly better on the road than at home, notching 11 victories as visitors. I'll also point out that Chicago took the lone previous meeting in this series this season by eight points back in November. Take Chicago (10*). | |||||||
03-17-19 | Bulls v. Kings -6.5 | Top | 102-129 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Sacramento minus the points over Chicago at 6:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll lay the points with the Kings in this spot. Sacramento has been reeling lately but has also faced a pretty brutal schedule. While I don't generally like to back teams returning home off a road trip on the opposite coast, I do believe we'll see the Kings bounce back here. Note that Sacramento ranks third in the league in pace rating over its last five games and should be able to punish an awful Bulls defense on Sunday. Chicago checks in 29th in the league in defensive rating over its last five contests. The Bulls are coming off a relatively close seven-point loss against the Clippers but that was only thanks to L.A. taking its foot off the gas in the fourth quarter (it was an 18-point game entering the fourth). Chicago is just 2-5 ATS over its last seven games. The Kings have lost four of their last five SU but have still managed to go 3-1-1 ATS over that stretch. Also note that the Kings took the first meeting in this series this season by 19 points back in December. Take Sacramento (10*). | |||||||
03-16-19 | Suns +2.5 v. Pelicans | 138-136 | Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix plus the points over New Orleans at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. The Pelicans are really struggling right now, losers of five games in a row and allowing 120+ points in each of their last four contests. They've had their way with the Suns in recent years but I don't feel that holds much bearing here. Phoenix suffered a narrow six-point loss in Houston last night. Keep in mind, they won on the road against the Warriors last Sunday. The Suns certainly don't appear to be a team that's tanking right now, having gone 5-4 SU and 7-2 ATS over their last nine games. The Pelicans should have Anthony Davis back tonight but are still missing Jrue Holliday. Take Phoenix (10*). | |||||||
03-16-19 | Florida +3 v. Auburn | 62-65 | Push | 0 | 15 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Florida plus the points over Auburn at 1 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams have obviously impressed so far in this tournament and while Florida would appear to be in a prime letdown spot following yesterday's come-from-behind win over favored LSU, I actually expect that victory to fuel the Gators fire against Auburn on Saturday. The Tigers got the better of the Gators in their lone regular season meeting, their first win in what seems like an eternity in this series. I simply feel that these two teams are mirror images of one another and that the right move is to grab the points in a game that could easily go either way. Behind another balanced offensive performance, look for the Gators to hang tough for 40 minutes and put Auburn's SEC title hopes in doubt. Take Florida (10*). | |||||||
03-15-19 | Bucks -5 v. Heat | 113-98 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Miami at 8:05 pm et on Friday. I'll lay the points with the Bucks on Friday night in Miami. We won with Milwaukee last time out as it shook out of a mini-slump with a blowout win in New Orleans. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Despite its recent struggles to find the win column, Milwaukee checks in third in offensive rating and first in defensive rating over its last five games. The Heat, on the other hand, sit 23rd and eighth in those two categories, respectively over that same stretch. Miami has actually been winning with some consistency, notching five victories in its last six games. However, when it last stepped up in class against the Raptors last Sunday, it lost by 21 points. Take Milwaukee (10*). | |||||||
03-15-19 | Grambling State v. Prairie View A&M -3.5 | 71-81 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Prairie View A&M minus the points over Grambling at 3:30 pm et on Friday. I'll lay the points with the Panthers in this matchup. Prairie View will fly below most bettors' radar, after all they've gone just 20-12 SU and 16-14-1 ATS overall this season. But the Panthers have been the class of the SWAC, posting an 18-1 record in-conference. Meanwhile, Grambling has had an ok season, going 11-8 in conference play, thanks in large part to four straight wins entering this contest. Keep in mind, all four of those wins came against losing opponents, with two of them coming against two of the worst teams in the nation. Grambling was competitive in its home matchup with Prairie View during the regular season but still dropped the cash in both matchups, including a 17-point loss on the road. Take Prairie View A&M (10*). | |||||||
03-14-19 | UMKC v. Utah Valley -9 | Top | 64-71 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
WAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Utah Valley minus the points over UMKC at 9 pm et on Thursday. I'll lay the points with Utah Valley on Thursday night as it aims to march on in the WAC Tournament in Las Vegas. The Wolverines have been absolutely rolling since early January, with only two losses dating back to January 12th and both of those came against the top team in the conference, New Mexico State, which has gone 27-4 this season. It's worth noting that both of those games could have gone either way with the Aggies winning by five and seven points. UMKC closed out the regular season with a beatdown of Chicago State but that's nothing to brag about as the Cougars have only three wins to their credit this season. Prior to that, UMKC's last win came on February 16th. While both regular season meetings in this series went to Utah Valley, neither game was a real blowout. I feel that will help keep the Wolverines guard up here. Take Utah Valley (10*). | |||||||
03-14-19 | Cavs +8 v. Magic | Top | 91-120 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
NBA Game of the Week. My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Orlando at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Magic were one of the hottest teams in the league a short time ago, but that certainly isn't the case now as they limp into this game losers of back-to-back and four of their last five games overall. Their lone victory over that stretch came by five points at home against the Mavs. Cleveland has shown signs of life lately, including an upset win over the Raptors on Monday night. The Cavs have been pushing the pace a little more lately, ranking 18th in the league in pace rating over their last five games. That's a marked improvement as they had been pulling up the rear in that department a couple of weeks ago. The Magic currently rank 27th in pace rating over that same stretch. The Cavs also sit in the top half of the league in both offensive and defensive rating over those last five contests. By contrast, the Magic are 29th and 18th, respectively. I'll grab the generous helping of points with the underdog Cavs here. Take Cleveland (10*). | |||||||
03-14-19 | Delaware State v. North Carolina Central -11 | 57-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on N.C. Central minus the points over Delaware State at 6 pm et on Thursday. I'll lay the points with the Eagles as they take on Delaware State on Thursday evening. N.C. Central last lost only two games since February 9th and those losses came against the two top ranked teams in the MEAC in Norfolk State and North Carolina A&T, both of which advanced in this tournament with victories last night. Delaware State has only six wins to its credit this season, finishing 12th in the MEAC. The last time these two teams met back on February 11th, the Eagles rolled to a 35-point victory. The Hornets of course did win their tournament opener but that came against Savannah State, a team that ranks seventh in the MEAC with an 11-20 record. Delaware State will be taking a bigger step up in class here. Take N.C. Central (10*). | |||||||
03-14-19 | Chicago State v. New Mexico State -26 | 49-86 | Win | 100 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Mexico State minus the points over Chicago State at 3 pm et on Thursday. There's already a sizable class different between New Mexico State and the rest of the WAC but here that will be even more pronounced as the Aggies take on last place Chicago State, a team that hasn't won since way back on December 6th, and that victory came against the likes of Trinity Christian. Neither regular season meeting between these two teams was close, with New Mexico State winning by 44 and 34-point margins. Of course, there's a chance the Aggies could overlook the Cougars here, but I don't see it. New Mexico State took its foot off the gas in the second half against Cal Baptist in its regular season finale, outscored by 14 points over those 20 minutes. Here I look for a focused 40-minute effort from the Aggies. Take New Mexico State (10*). | |||||||
03-13-19 | Jazz -7.5 v. Suns | 114-97 | Win | 100 | 15 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah minus the points over Phoenix at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. These teams appear to be heading in opposite directions and we've actually cashed with the Suns in each of their last two games including Sunday's stunning outright win at Golden State. However, I believe it's time to jump ship here as Phoenix returns home to host what will be a highly-motivated Jazz squad. Needless to say, this is a big letdown spot for the Suns. This is still a team that owns just 16 wins and a losing ATS record this season. The Jazz have dropped back-to-back games since a win and cover in New Orleans last week (we won with Utah in that game). Keep in mind, those two setbacks came against a surging Grizzlies squad and the Thunder. Utah should settle back in here against an opponent it defeated by 28 points in their lone previous meeting this season. Take Utah (10*). | |||||||
03-13-19 | Houston Baptist v. Lamar -4 | Top | 79-81 | Loss | -113 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
NCAAB Southland Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Lamar minus the points over Houston Baptist at 6 pm et on Wednesday. I really like the way this matchup sets up for Lamar and why not? After all, the Cardinals just defeated the Huskies by 35 points back in February. In fact, Lamar has lost only two games dating back to January 26th and those came against the two best teams in the Southland Conference, Abilene-Christian and Sam Houston State. Houston Baptist has played much better basketball since the start of February, finishing eighth in the Southland Conference. The Huskies did defeat Lamar by six points at home back on January 2nd with Ian DuBose going off for 33 points in that overtime victory. That one clearly could have gone either way and the Cardinals certainly proved their superiority in the aforementioned next meeting. I'll lay the relatively short number here. Take Lamar (10*). | |||||||
03-12-19 | Blazers v. Clippers +2.5 | 125-104 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Portland at 10:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Clippers are rolling right now, winners of five games in a row to strengthen their playoff positioning in the Western Conference. Just last night they put up 140 points in a rout of the Celtics. I look for them to keep it going on Tuesday night against the Blazers. Portland has been playing well also but we cashed a ticket fading them against the lowly Suns last time out and that makes it there ATS losses in a row following a seven-game ATS winning streak. The Clippers rank second in the league in offensive rating and sixth in defensive rating over their last five games. The Blazers aren't far behind at fifth in the league in offensive rating over that stretch but leave a lot to be desired defensively, ranking 23rd. This has been a tightly-contested series with three previous meetings decided by a total of 18 points this season. Look for the Clips to even up the season series here. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
03-12-19 | Bucks -9 v. Pelicans | 130-113 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over New Orleans at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. I'll lay the points with the Bucks as they aim to bounce back from a loss in San Antonio on Sunday. The Pelicans lead the league in pace rating over their last five games but I think that works against them in this matchup. The Bucks can run with the best of them and rank eighth in the league in offensive rating over their last five contests. While the Pelicans find themselves in the bottom-third of the league in defensive rating over that stretch, the Bucks sit 16th. After a bit of a surge, the wheels have come off for the Pelicans over their last few games and I look for continuation of that here. Take Milwaukee (10*). | |||||||
03-11-19 | Raptors -9.5 v. Cavs | 101-126 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto minus the points over Cleveland at 7:05 pm et on Monday. Fresh off a blowout win in Miami yesterday I look for the Raptors to keep rolling against another inferior opponent in Cleveland on Monday night. Toronto is rounding into form at the defensive end of the floor, just as we expected they would after acquiring Marc Gasol at the trade deadline. The Raps check in eighth in the league in defensive rating over their last five games, and actually sit an identical eighth in offensive rating as well. The Cavs have held their own lately at the offensive end of the floor, ranking 10th in the league in offensive rating over their last five contests. I just don't see them having a great deal of success against the Raptors in that regard tonight, and it's certainly worth noting that Cleveland ranks 29th in the league in defensive rating over that same stretch. With Kawhi Leonard likely back in the lineup for the Raps, I'll lay the points here. Take Toronto (10*). | |||||||
03-10-19 | Suns +17 v. Warriors | 115-111 | Win | 100 | 13 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix plus the points over Golden State at 8:35 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Suns last night in Portland and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as Phoenix goes on to face the Warriors in Oakland on Sunday night. The Suns now rank an impressive fourth in the league in pace rating over their last five games. They also find themselves in the top half of the league in both offensive and defensive rating over that same stretch. The Warriors continue to push the tempo, ranking second in pace rating over their last five games but they haven't made the most of it, sitting 23rd in offensive rating and 19th in defensive rating over that time frame. Shooting for a fifth straight ATS win, I'll back the Suns here. Take Phoenix (10*). | |||||||
03-10-19 | Rockets -8 v. Mavs | 94-93 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston minus the points over Dallas at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll lay the points with the Rockets as they aim to continue their surge in Dallas on Sunday night. Houston has won seven games in a row SU and three straight ATS heading into this one. The Rockets rank fourth in the league in offensive rating and eighth in defensive rating over their last five contests. By contrast, the Mavs have hit a wall. They check in 29th in offensive rating and 27th in defensive rating over their last five games. Houston has dropped two of three meetings against Dallas this season but in their lone matchup since the start of 2019 the Rockets prevailed by 16 points. Despite suffering a wrist injury on Friday night, James Harden is expected to play for the Rockets on Sunday night. Even if he doesn't, I still like Houston here. Take Houston (10*). | |||||||
03-09-19 | Suns +12.5 v. Blazers | Top | 120-127 | Win | 100 | 25 h 7 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Phoenix plus the points over Portland at 10:05 pm et on Saturday. I really like the way this game sets up for the underdog Suns. Phoenix has been playing some of its best basketball of the season, having reeled off three straight wins, albeit with each of those victories coming at home. I do expect the Suns to stay competitive as they hit the road to face the Blazers on Saturday night. Portland has dropped the cash in back-to-back games and has earned just one straight-up victory over its last four contests. It's been 'crazy 8's' for the Suns lately as entering last night's action, they ranked eighth in the league in pace rating, offensive rating and defensive rating over their last five games. Over that same period, Portland finds itself much farther down the pecking order. Notably, the Blazers rank in the bottom half of the league in both pace rating and defensive rating over their last five games. Phoenix is playing with some confidence right now and it should relish the role of spoiler once again on Saturday. Take Phoenix (10*). | |||||||
03-09-19 | Western Illinois v. South Dakota State -15 | Top | 79-76 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 50 m | Show |
NCAAB Summit League Game of the Year. My selection is on South Dakota State minus the points over Western Illinois at 7 pm et on Saturday. We just saw this same matchup one week ago with the Jackrabbits rolling to a 20-point victory. I don't see this one playing out much differently as the two teams do battle in the Summit League Tournament. There's a major class difference between these two squads. The Leathernecks have managed only three victories since the start of January and none of those wins were considered major upsets. This obviously would be. South Dakota State finished the regular season tops in the Summit League but I don't expect it to let its guard down here, noting that the Jackrabbits have been involved in some close games against tough opposition lately, with four of their last five games being decided by single-digits. Keep in mind, those closer games came against the second, third, fourth and fifth-place teams in the Summit League. This one has blowout written all over it. Take South Dakota State (10*). | |||||||
03-08-19 | Pistons -3.5 v. Bulls | 112-104 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit minus the points over Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Friday. The Pistons have won three games in a row and six of their last seven overall to strengthen their position in the Eastern Conference playoff race. While a letdown could be in order against the lowly Bulls on Friday night, I don't see it happening. Note that Detroit ranks last in the league in pace rating over its last five games but that hasn't really had an adverse effect as the Pistons rank second in the league in offensive rating over that same stretch. They also rank top 10 in defensive rating over that time frame. The Bulls pace has shown signs of lagging lately as they rank in the bottom-third of the league over their last five games in that category. Meanwhile, they've been middle of the pack in both offensive and defensive rating. The Bulls haven't defeated the Pistons since January of last year, dropping all five meetings since. Take Detroit (10*). | |||||||
03-08-19 | Jazz v. Grizzlies +5 | 104-114 | Win | 100 | 14 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Utah at 8:05 pm et on Friday. I'll grab the points with the Grizzlies as they host the Jazz on Friday night. We won with Utah in its last game, a victory in New Orleans on Wednesday night. I won't hesitate to switch gears here, however, as the Grizzlies have quietly been playing some solid basketball lately. Memphis is actually tops in the league in defensive rating over its last five games. Over that same stretch, the Grizz have gone 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS. By contrast, the Jazz have dropped the cash in three of their last five games and haven't exactly had an easy time with the Grizzlies this season, dropping two of three meetings with their lone victory coming by eight points. Memphis is 6-2 ATS in the last eight matchups in this series. Take Memphis (10*). | |||||||
03-08-19 | Raptors v. Pelicans +5 | 127-104 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Toronto at 8:05 pm et on Friday. Bettors have been quick to jump off the Pelicans with all of the drama surrounding Anthony Davis going back to before the trade deadline in February but the fact is, New Orleans has evolved into a pretty solid bet lately. Note that the Pelicans rank tops in the league in pace rating over their last five games. They're also a solid 12th in the league in offensive rating over that same stretch. Even in defensive rating, where they've struggled for the most part, they rank in the top half of the league over their last five contests. The Raptors limp into this game off back-to-back losses. We've actually cashed tickets fading the Raps in each of their last three SU losses. Toronto is a miserable 1-8 ATS over its last nine contests. Take New Orleans (10*). | |||||||
03-07-19 | Pacers v. Bucks -10 | Top | 98-117 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Indiana at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. The Bucks are coming off rare back-to-back losses but I fully expect to see them bounce back in a big way in their return home following a long road trip on Thursday night. Milwaukee continues to push the tempo, ranking seventh in the league in pace rating over its last five games. By contrast, the Pacers check in second-last in the league in that same category over the same stretch. And we know the Bucks are more than capable of making the most of that up-tempo style, ranking seventh in the league in offensive rating over that time frame as well. The Pacers have held their own in that department as well but I simply expect them to get overwhelmed defensively here. Indiana checks in 26th in the league in defensive rating over its last five contests. This series hasn't been all that close this season with two of three meetings decided by 16 points or more and the other going the Bucks way by nine. Take Milwaukee (10*). | |||||||
03-06-19 | Jazz -4 v. Pelicans | 114-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah minus the points over New Orleans at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. Nice bounce-back and quick revenge spot for the Jazz here as they host the Pelicans. New Orleans is on a roll right now, even with Anthony Davis in and out of the lineup and playing very limited minutes. With that being said, I don't see them keeping it rolling as they return home off consecutive games playing in altitude. Note that while the Pelicans rank second in the league in pace rating over their last five games, they're just 15th in offensive rating over that same stretch. Utah holds the edge in both offensive and defensive rating over that five-game sample and the Jazz are obviously the superior all-around team in this matchup, even if things didn't go their way two nights ago. We're being asked to lay a reasonable number in this strong motivational spot for Utah. Take Utah (10*). |
Service | Profit |
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Ricky Tran | $756 |
ProSportsPicks | $632 |
Joseph D'Amico | $510 |
Joey Tron | $450 |
Tom Macrina | $399 |
Nick Parsons | $344 |
Sean Murphy | $306 |
Jack Jones | $303 |
William Burns | $233 |
Dan Kaiser | $220 |