Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
03-30-22 | Pelicans v. Blazers OVER 228 | Top | 117-107 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. C.J. McCollum will make his return to Portland as a member of the Pelicans after being dealt from the Blazers prior to the trade deadline. While the Blazers are going nowhere this season, I do think they get up for this game and we see an up-tempo affair on Wednesday night. We know what we're going to get from New Orleans right now. The Pelicans have scored 102+ points in 20 consecutive games and have made good on 40+ field goals in 15 straight contests. The Blazers don't figure to do much to stand in their way here, noting they've allowed 40+ made field goals in eight of their last nine games. Albeit aided by overtime, they allowed 48-of-90 shooting and 134 points against an undermanned Thunder squad last time out. Despite a depleted roster, Portland has managed to push the pace a little more than it had been recently over its last couple of games, attempting 93 and 99 field goal attempts in regulation time in those two contests. The Blazers have generally been alternating good and bad offensive efforts lately, but again, I expect them to get up for this one, especially as they look to salvage something from this five-game homestand (they're 0-4 so far). While New Orleans has been limiting its opponents' tempo for the most part, it is also allowing the opposition to shoot for a lofty percentage. Note that four of the Pelicans last five opponents have made good on 40+ field goals. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
03-29-22 | Stars v. Ducks +1.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Anaheim +1.5 goals over Dallas at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Ducks are reeling right now, losers of nine games in a row. They've been idle since suffering a 4-1 defeat in San Jose on Saturday and I look for them to finally come up with a bounce-back performance on Tuesday at home against Dallas. The Stars are off a loss of their own, falling by an identical 4-1 score on home ice against Vancouver on Saturday. Note that Dallas has averaged a woeful 1.6 goals per game when playing on the road after winning four or five of its last six games this season, outscored by 1.2 goals on average in that situation. The Ducks on the other hand average 3.4 goals per game and have been outscored by just 0.1 goals on average when playing at home after allowing 4+ goals in consecutive games this season. Better still, they've averaged 3.7 goals per game while outscoring opponents by 0.4 goals on average after giving up 4+ goals in three consecutive games this season. Take Anaheim +1.5 goals (6*). | |||||||
03-29-22 | Senators v. Predators UNDER 6.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
NHL Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Ottawa and Nashville at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring games. The Senators have seen the 'over' cash in each of their last two contests while Nashville enters Tuesday's game riding a six-game 'over' streak. I'm expecting a different story to unfold on Tuesday, however, as Ottawa travels to Nashville. Note that the Sens average only 2.7 goals per game on the road this season, with the 'under' cashing at an 18-11-2 clip. The 'under' is an incredible 17-5 with the Sens coming off a game that totalled 7+ goals, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 5.0 goals. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 31-15 with the Predators playing at home off an 'over' result over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of just 5.3 goals in that spot. The 'under' is also a perfect 7-0 with the Preds playing at home after scoring 5+ goals in their previous game this season, resulting in an average total of only 3.9 goals. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-29-22 | Lakers v. Mavs OVER 218 | 110-128 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Dallas at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. The Lakers will likely be without Lebron James for this game but I feel the total has been adjusted too low based on the way they've been playing lately. L.A. has actually settled into a bit of a groove offensively, having made good on 47, 48, 53, 50 and 42 field goals over its last five games with the low-water mark coming in a game where it got off just 80 field goal attempts against New Orleans last time out. On the flip side, the Lakers have also gone back to their awful ways defensively, giving up 44+ made field goals in five straight games with five of their last six opponents putting up 120+ points. The Mavs obviously play tough defense at home. I can see them lacking a bit of intensity here, however, as they look ahead to a trip to Cleveland tomorrow and perhaps underestimate the Lebron-less Lakers. While Los Angeles averages just 111.1 points per game on the road this season, that average bumps up to 116.9 points per game when coming off a road loss, as is the case here. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
03-29-22 | St Bonaventure v. Xavier OVER 142 | Top | 77-84 | Win | 100 | 127 h 30 m | Show |
NIT Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between St. Bonaventure and Xavier at 10 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'over' in Xavier's most recent game - a 75-73 NIT quarter-final victory over Vanderbilt. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as the Musketeers take on St. Bonaventure in NIT semi-final action on Tuesday. Xavier continues to allow the opposition to get off plenty of scoring opportunities, yielding 60, 65, 64, 60, 64 and 59 field goal attempts over its last six games. St. Bonaventure figures to take advantage of those opportunities, noting that it has knocked down 30, 24, 29, 27 and 20 field goals over its last five games with the outlier being a defensive slugfest against one of the slowest-paced and defensively-elite teams in the country in Virginia last time out. The Bonnies have generally done a nice job of limiting their opponents opportunities, allowing fewer than 60 FG attempts in 12 straight games heading into this one. However, they'll have their hands full with Xavier. The Musketeers check in having made good on 35, 33, 24, 26 and 27 field goals over their last five contests, most recently thriving in the second half of their win over Vandy. You would have to go back six games to find the last time Xavier was held to fewer than 72 points. In a game where I expect the pace to tick up a bit, I'm confident both offenses can continue to thrive and this total will quite simply prove too low. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
03-28-22 | Southern Utah v. Fresno State OVER 135.5 | Top | 48-67 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 30 m | Show |
The Basketball Classic Third Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Southern Utah and Fresno State at 10 pm et on Monday. Fresno State has looked like a different team in this tournament, making good on 28 and 27 field goals while scoring 80+ points in both games. Perhaps getting out of the defensive-minded Mountain West Conference was just what the doctor ordered. Here, the Bulldogs draw another vulnerable defensive opponent in Southern Utah. The Jaguars have consistently allowed between 23-28 made field goals per contest over the last month. On the flip side, Southern Utah has been scoring with the best of them, knocking down 27, 28, 25, 28, 32 and 29 field goals over its last six contests. Fresno State played lights out defensive basketball earlier in the season but that hasn't really been the case lately. The Bulldogs have yielded 26, 20, 26 and 23 made field goals over their last four games, despite a relatively slow pace. Here, we can anticipate the Jaguars forcing the issue a little more than Fresno's recent opponents, noting that they've averaged 27-for-61 shooting away from home this season. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
03-28-22 | Bulls v. Knicks +5 | 104-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York plus the points over Chicago at 7:40 pm et on Monday. The Bulls have had a tough enough time just getting shots off let alone making them lately, attempting just 78 and 75 field goals over their last two games. It's not as if those two contests came against elite defensive teams either. The first was against a 'defense-optional' Pelicans squad and the next came against a reeling Cavaliers defense. Here, Chicago will face rival New York, noting that you would have to go back to March 13th against Brooklyn to find the last time the Knicks allowed more than 42 made field goals in a game. The Knicks have actually won three games in a row SU but did lose ATS yesterday in Detroit, which actually works in our favor here with the line creeping up in favor of the Bulls. Note that there's been little to choose between these two teams this season with all three of the previous matchups decided by six points or less. I'll grab the points here. Take New York (8*). | |||||||
03-28-22 | Hurricanes v. Capitals +1.5 | 6-1 | Loss | -200 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington +1.5 goals over Carolina at 7:05 pm et on Monday. I think the revenge angle might be a little too played up in this one, noting that the Hurricanes have dropped each of their three previous matchups against the Capitals this season. Keep in mind, Carolina is just 2-7 when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent in which it allowed 4+ goals this season, as is the case here, outscored by 0.8 goals on average in that situation. The Caps meanwhile, check in 28-10 after giving up 3+ goals in three straight games over the last three seasons, averaging 3.7 goals and outscoring opponents by 1.0 goal on average in that spot. While Washington remains just 16-18 on home ice this season, it has actually outscored the opposition by 0.2 goals on average. While we're being asked to pay considerable juice to grab the insurance goal in this spot, I believe the price is warranted. Take Washington +1.5 goals (5*). | |||||||
03-27-22 | Hornets v. Nets OVER 240 | Top | 119-110 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 32 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Charlotte and Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Sunday. I don't expect to see much defense in this Eastern Conference matchup on Sunday night. The Hornets roll into this game having made good on 52, 49, 43, 44, 40, 42 and 41 field goals over their last seven games. You get the idea. They're scoring fairly consistently right now and won't back down from the challenge at hand in Brooklyn on Sunday, noting that they've already won on this floor this season. More recently these two teams met in Charlotte and they combined to score 253 points on March 8th. The Nets entered last night's game in Miami having knocked down 45+ field goals in all but one of their previous nine games. Counter to that, they've also yielded 92+ FG attempts to opponents in five of their last eight contests. Expect a track meet here. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
03-27-22 | Wolves v. Celtics OVER 227.5 | 112-134 | Win | 100 | 22 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Boston at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. You'd be hard-pressed to find a hotter offensive team than the Celtics right now. They've made good on 46, 47, 44 and 50 field goals over their last four games, scoring 124+ points in each of those four contests. Keep in mind, the C's are just one game removed from allowing 123 points on 48-of-93 shooting against an undermanned Thunder squad so there's a path for the T'Wolves to stay competitive in an underdog role here. Minnesota has of course been playing well also and checks in having knocked down 52, 40, 47, 36, 42 and 43 field goals over its last six games. The outlier came on the road against Dallas and it's worth noting the Wolves still scored 108 points in that game. We can be quite confident that the Wolves will find their scoring opportunities here, noting that they've gotten off 90+ field goal attempts in five of their last six games and also reached that number in their first meeting with Boston this season. The Celtics have been scoring at will despite the fact that they've been held to 88 or fewer FG attempts in six straight games. They're likely to get into the 90's in that department here, noting that Minnesota has yielded 90+ FG attempts to opponents in four of its last six contests. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
03-27-22 | St. Peter's v. North Carolina OVER 136.5 | 49-69 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between St. Peter's and North Carolina at 5:05 pm et on Sunday. We missed with the 'over' (barely) in St. Peter's upset win over Purdue on Friday. That game just about got to the posted total but ultimately fell just short, largely due to the pace simply not being there. Here, I expect a different story to unfold. North Carolina continues to push the pace at every opportunity, getting off 60+ field goal attempts in six of its last seven games. Of course, the Tar Heels continue to make the most of their scoring opportunities, knocking down 28+ field goals in six of their last eight contests. On the flip side, they're also affording their opponents plenty of scoring opportunities, allowing 73, 81 and 62 FG attempts through their first three tournament games. Their last four opponents have made good on 25, 26, 28 and 28 field goals with all four of those opponents scoring at least 63 points. While St. Peter's certainly isn't known for its offense, it has scored 64+ points in five of its last six contests. That's despite playing at a very slow pace. Defensively, the Peacocks are terrific, but we have seen Kentucky and Purdue at least find some success, and they'll undoubtedly have their hands full with a Tar Heels offense that is peaking at the right time. Take the over (9*). | |||||||
03-26-22 | Arkansas +4 v. Duke | Top | 69-78 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Game of the Year. My selection is on Arkansas plus the points over Duke at 8:45 pm et on Saturday. We won with Arkansas in its stunning upset win over number-one seed Gonzaga two nights ago and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. The Razorbacks actually made some poor choices shooting the basketball early in the shot clock down the stretch in that win over Gonzaga and ultimately made good on just 29-of-72 field goal attempts but their relentless defense frustrated the Zags all night and I expect more of the same here (but with better shot selection offensively). Duke has been red hot shooting the ball but what happens if those shots suddenly stop falling? Interestingly, it has only gotten off 58, 56 and 54 field goal attempts in its first three tournament games (it averages 60 FG attempts per contest away from home this season). I'm concerned with the Blue Devils inability to control their opponents' tempo, having yielded 64+ FG attempts in each of their last seven games. Even a lukewarm Texas Tech offense was able to make good on 31 field goals on Thursday, even though it wasn't enough to topple the Blue Devils. Going back to March 5th against North Carolina, Duke has now allowed 33, 27, 31, 32, 24, 27 and 31 made field goals over its last seven contests. Meanwhile, only one of the Hogs last seven opponents has managed to knock down more than 26 field goals. Take Arkansas (10*). | |||||||
03-26-22 | Arkansas v. Duke UNDER 147.5 | Top | 69-78 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
NCAA Elite Eight Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Arkansas and Duke at 8:45 pm et on Saturday. Thursday's Arkansas-Gonzaga game wasn't a typical one for the Razorbacks. They average 60 field goal attempts per game away from home this season and had gotten off 57 or fewer in four straight games prior to that contest. Yet they ended up hoisting up 72 field goal attempts, making good only only 29 of them, in that stunning upset victory. On the flip side, they also allowed the Zags to get off 64 FG attempts - well north of the 57 FG attempts they yield on average away from home this season. It's not the way Hogs head coach Eric Musselman wants this game to play out on Saturday against the red hot Blue Devils, I'm sure of that. Duke has shot better than 51% in each of its first three games in this tournament. Interestingly, it has actually attempted 58 or fewer field goals in all three contests. I'm not expecting anything to come easy for the Blue Devils on offense here. Note that Arkansas has held six of its last seven opponents to 26 or fewer made field goals. With that being said, there is seemingly a 'ceiling' for the Arkansas offense. Even with 70+ FG attempts against Gonzaga it still managed to make good on just 29 field goals. Prior to that it had been held to 24 or fewer made field goals in six straight games. The Hogs have of course made their living at the free throw line this season but it is worth mentioning that the Blue Devils send opponents to the charity stripe just 12 times per game. With the Blue Devils coming off consecutive 'over' results (we cashed with the 'over' in both games), I believe this total will prove too high. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-26-22 | Bucks v. Grizzlies OVER 232.5 | 102-127 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. The lone previous meeting between these two teams this season totalled 240 points and while we're dealing with a higher posted total this time around, I believe it will still prove too low. We of course know that the Bucks can 'fill it up' on any given night, seemingly regardless who is in or out of the lineup. They've made good on 40+ field goals in 14 of their last 15 games overall, and more recently have knocked down 40, 47, 43, 50 and 42 field goals in their last five contests. They also haven't been doing anything to slow their opponents' pace, yielding 92+ field goal attempts in six straight games. As for the Grizzlies, they've hit 40+ field goals in 13 straight games, even with the likes of Ja Morant and Dillon Brooks in and out of the lineup (Morant remains sidelined while Brooks should be back on Saturday). They've been lights out offensively over their last few games, knocking down 46, 47 and 50 field goals over that stretch while scoring 122+ points in all three contests. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
03-26-22 | Canucks v. Stars OVER 5.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -125 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Vancouver and Dallas at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. The Canucks check into Saturday's game in Dallas off three straight 'under' results. They're certainly capable of bouncing back offensively, noting that they average just shy of 3.0 goals per game on the road this season with the 'over' cashing at a 19-14-1 clip. They'll likely face Stars goaltender Jake Oettinger on Saturday. He's had a fine season but has actually struggled lately, posting a .907 save percentage over his last four starts with the 'over' cashing in three of those four contests. Of course, Dallas is rolling right now, having won three games in a row, scoring 12 goals along the way. The Stars have seen the 'over' cash in each of their last two games and they've proven to be a streaky team in that regard this season, noting that the 'over' is 19-9 with Dallas coming off an 'over' result this season, resulting in an average total of 6.8 goals. I mentioned that the Canucks average just under 3.0 goals per game on the road this season. That average bumps up to 3.7 goals per contest when Vancouver plays on the road off an overtime loss this season (six-game sample size). That situation has produced an average total of 6.4 goals. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
03-25-22 | Iowa State v. Miami-FL OVER 131.5 | 56-70 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Iowa State and Miami at 9:55 pm et on Friday. The 'under' has cashed in both the first and second round for both of these teams in this tournament. In fact, the last 'over' result for Miami came in a game where we were on that side of the total in an 80-76 loss to Duke in the ACC tournament. I'll go back to the well here, noting that this is the lowest total we've seen in a game involving the Hurricanes in this tournament, by a considerable margin. Miami isn't likely to allow Iowa State to dictate the (slow) pace the way it did in its first two tournament games against LSU and Wisconsin. The Hurricanes have consistently been getting (and making) their shots for weeks now. They check in having knocked down 27+ field goals in 12 of their last 13 games. The lone outlier came in the opener of this tournament against USC - a contest that got off to an incredibly slow start before both teams heated up in the second half (we just missed with the 'over' in that game). On the flip side, Miami is certainly fortunate that Auburn wasn't able to hit anything in its second round matchup, as it did yield the Tigers a whopping 69 field goal attempts. The Canes can't count on the Cyclones shooting as poorly as they did in their first two tourney games (they made just 20 field goals in each contest - shooting sub-36% in both games). Note that entering this tournament, Iowa State had allowed 28, 25, 22, 26, 20, 21, 25, 20, 23, 26 and 28 made field goals over its last 11 games (I know you get the picture but sometimes seeing the numbers visually is better). None of those numbers are earth-shattering, but my point is, the Cyclones haven't been completely locking opponents down defensively. I am confident Iowa State can contribute enough offensively to help this total along, noting that Miami ranks 121st in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season, according to KenPom. The Canes check in having allowed opponents to make good on 26-of-56 field goal attempts per game including eight made threes per contest away from home this season. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
03-25-22 | Rockets v. Blazers UNDER 234.5 | 125-106 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Friday. I understand the thinking that this will be a 'defense-optional' type of affair but I have little confidence in both offenses showing up and hanging a crooked number on the scoreboard. Houston 'unders' have been one of the best kept betting secrets in the NBA lately as each of its last four contests have stayed 'under' the total with only one of those games coming anywhere close to eclipsing the total. The Rockets have gotten off just 86, 77, 85, 79, 86, 85 and 82 field goal attempts over their last seven games. They've made good on fewer than 40 field goals in four of their last six games. Houston has topped out at 118 points over its last seven contests and even that might not be enough to topple the total on Friday. After a miserable stretch of non-existent defense we have seen the Rockets hold their last two opponents to just 85 and 86 FG attempts. It's not as if the Blazers have been able to consistently push the pace, not with their injury-depleted roster that was already cleaned out by way of trades prior to the deadline. They've made good on just 38, 37 and 36 field goals over their last three games. Pre-trade deadline acquisition Josh Hart gave them a bit of an offensive spark on a recent road trip but now he's sidelined due to injury as well. On a positive note, Portland has at least been limiting its opponents scoring opportunities (relatively-speaking, I know), yielding 80, 77, 84, 85 and 94 FG attempts over its last five contests. Its most recent game was the outlier as it allowed a whopping 133 points against San Antonio. Of course, the Rockets aren't the Spurs, and I expect a better defensive effort from the Blazers here. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
03-25-22 | Mavs v. Wolves UNDER 227.5 | Top | 95-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Friday. This will be the fourth meeting between these two teams this season and it's not as if they're getting any looser. Neither team has scored more than 114 points in any of the previous three matchups with those contests totalling 216, 216 and 218 total points. I would anticipate tonight's contest being played at a very similar pace to what we saw earlier this week when the Mavs prevailed by a 110-108 score in Dallas. That game saw the two teams combined to knock down 27 three-pointers (they average a combined 28 made threes per game this season) and 39 free throws (they average 34 made free throws combined this season). The Mavs continue to put the defensive clamps on the opposition, yielding fewer than 89 FG attempts in seven of their last nine games. The only two opponents that got off more than 89 attempts were Brooklyn and the same Minnesota squad they'll face tonight, with those two scoring just 111 and 108 points, respectively. Meanwhile, you would have to go all the way back to February 2nd to find the last time the Mavs hoisted up 90+ FG attempts in a game. The T'Wolves are actually a respectable defensive team here at home this season, holding the opposition to 38-of-87 shooting on average with the 'under' cashing at a 19-17-1 clip. They got lit up by a red hot Suns squad that couldn't miss last time out. Coming off consecutive losses I look for Minnesota to tighten things up here. Note that the last three times they've played at home following consecutive losses they've allowed just 103, 99 and 106 points. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-25-22 | Warriors +3 v. Hawks | 110-121 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State plus the points over Atlanta at 7:40 pm et on Friday. I think the case can be made that the wrong team is being favored in this matchup. Yes, the Warriors have been unsteady, particularly since losing Steph Curry to injury. However, they did rebound with a big win in Miami two nights ago (with Klay Thompson resting) and I look for them to build on that performance here. Note that the Warriors continue to play exceptional defense. They've held seven of their last eight opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. Only one of their last four opponents has managed to get off more than 85 field goal attempts. That's a stark contrast to tonight's opponent, Atlanta, which has allowed 12 straight opponents to knock down 40+ field goals. Incredibly, you would have to go all the way back to January 28th against Boston to find the last time it held an opponent to fewer than 100 points. The Warriors have accomplished that feat four times since then. The Hawks haven't exactly been lighting it up offensively either. Yes, they went off thanks to Trae Young's heroics at Madison Square Garden earlier this week. However, they've been held to 40 or fewer made field goals in four of their last six games. Take Golden State (8*). | |||||||
03-25-22 | St. Peter's v. Purdue OVER 133 | Top | 67-64 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
NCAA Sweet 16 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between St. Peter's and Purdue at 7:05 pm et on Friday. We've seen this total drop since opening as it seems bettors have little faith in St. Peter's to keep it rolling against Purdue. The Peacocks have certainly impressed through two tournament games, scoring 85 points in a win over Kentucky (aided by overtime - they scored 71 points in regulation time) and then 70 points in a double-digit victory over Murray State. Even though the game against Kentucky went to overtime, the Peacocks still made good on 27-of-54 field goal attempts in regulation time. Here, they're likely to be afforded a whole lot more scoring opportunities, noting that Purdue has yielded 61, 60, 59, 69, 61, 63 and 68 field goal attempts over its last seven games. The Boilermakers allow an average of 61 FG attempts per game away from home this season. Not only that, but the opposition has knocked down an average of nine three-pointers per game against the Boilers away from their home gym. My point is, there's going to be a path for the Peacocks to score a reasonable number of points and keep this game competitive - which lends itself to a relatively high-scoring affair. Of course, little needs to be said about the Purdue offense. The Boilers currently rank first in the nation in terms of adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom. While St. Peter's has been terrific defensively, coming from the MAAC it's no surprise that its slate of opponents ranks 185th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. This is a considerable step up in class, noting that the Peacocks allowed Kentucky to make good on 26-of-61 field goal attempts in the opening round of this tournament (again, aided by overtime). Earlier in the season, St. Peter's faced a couple of opponents in the same vein as Purdue, with those contests totalling 161 points against St. John's and 156 points against Providence - another team that's still dancing in this tournament. I mentioned that Purdue has yielded plenty of FG attempts on a game-by-game basis but it has also allowed 26+ made field goals in seven of its last nine games. Both teams have shown the ability to get to the free throw line with St. Peter's averaging 20 field goal attempts per game while also sending opponents to the line 22 times per contest. Purdue averages 22 trips to the charity stripe per game. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
03-25-22 | Capitals v. Sabres OVER 6 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Buffalo at 7:05 pm et on Friday. NOTE: Both teams threw us a bit of a curveball, announcing Ilya Samsonov (Capitals) and Dustin Tokarski (Sabres) as the starting goaltenders tonight. A matchup between the two backup goaltenders obviously isn't the worst thing for us with an 'over' ticket, even though I did like the way we were set up with Vanecek vs. Anderson as noted below. The Capitals have gone from being red hot to losing consecutive games, scoring exactly two goals in each of those losses. This is an ideal bounce-back spot on the road against Buffalo, however, noting that Washington has scored 30 goals in its last eight meetings in this series and averages 3.9 goals per game when playing on the road after losing two of its last three games over the last two seasons, as is the case here. There's a good chance we'll see Vitek Vanecek in goal for the Caps here and that's notable as he has struggled lately, allowing 19 goals in his last six games. Of course Buffalo has been a mess between the pipes for most of the season. Craig Anderson likely gets the nod in goal on Friday. The veteran has allowed 11 goals over his last three games. Interestingly, the Sabres have averaged 3.6 goals per game when coming off an overtime win over the last three seasons (10-game sample size), as is the case here. Buffalo has quietly improved its scoring average to 2.9 goals per game here on home ice this season after finding the back of the net 12 times over its last three home contests. The last meeting between these two teams totalled just five goals back in December. Keep in mind, we haven't seen consecutive meetings in this series total fewer than six goals since 2017-18. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
03-24-22 | Houston v. Arizona OVER 145 | 72-60 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Arizona at 9:59 pm et on Thursday. This is the highest total in a game involving Houston since way back on December 11th when it faced Alabama - a game that totalled 165 points. I believe it's warranted. While Arizona's offense will get most of the hype leading into this matchup, it's worth noting that Houston has made good on 25+ field goals in 13 of its last 16 games, eclipsing the 30 field goal mark in six of those games. Here, the Cougars will likely be involved a much faster-paced game than they're used to, but I don't think we'll see them shy away from an up-tempo affair. Arizona has yielded 62, 69, 69 and 74 field goal attempts over its last four games and 60+ FG attempts in 21 of their last 25 contests overall. Of course, as I alluded to, the Wildcats are capable of hanging a crooked number on the scoreboard on any given night. They've racked up 26+ made field goals in eight straight games, reaching the 30 mark five times over that stretch. Yes, Houston is an elite defensive team. That being said, it hasn't faced many teams like Arizona this season. In fact, the Cougars rank 92nd in the country in terms of opponents' average adjusted offensive efficiency this season according to KenPom. Take the over (6*). | |||||||
03-24-22 | Texas Tech v. Duke OVER 137 | 73-78 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Texas Tech and Duke at 9:35 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'over' in Duke's most recent game - an 85-76 win over Michigan State in the round of 32 last Sunday. That game got into the 160's despite about a four-minute stretch in the first half where neither the Blue Devils or Spartans could hit a shot. Few teams are playing at the same level as Duke offensively right now, maybe Gonzaga and Arizona would fit in that category. The Blue Devils have made good on 35, 32, 34, 32, 29, 24, 30 and 32 field goals in their last eight games. However, at the other end of the floor they've yielded 64+ field goal attempts in six straight games. I realize Texas Tech doesn't play at a fast pace - far from it, in fact. But I do think the Red Raiders will have plenty of opportunity to get loose offensively in this one. Note that Texas Tech has managed to knock down 28, 21, 27, 36 and 21 field goals in its last five games so some consistency to rely on there. With that being said, the Red Raiders shot just 21-of-59 last time out against Notre Dame. Keep in mind, they've averaged right around 27 made field goals per game after being held to 21 or fewer made field goals in their previous game this season (nine-game sample size). The question here really becomes whether the Duke offense can keep rolling against an elite Texas Tech defense. I'm confident it can, noting that while Texas Tech yields just 21-of-55 shooting away from home this season, it has given up eight made threes per contest, an area where the Blue Devils can thrive. Also consider we're dealing with a reasonably low total here - the lowest in a Duke game since it faced Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship Game - a contest that totalled 149 points. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
03-24-22 | Bulls v. Pelicans +1.5 | Top | 109-126 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Game of the Week. My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. The Pelicans are a team we want to back right now, checking in 4-1 ATS over their last five games and well-positioned to bounce back following a loss in Charlotte three nights ago. New Orleans has been incredibly consistent offensively, making good on 40+ field goals in 12 consecutive games entering Thursday's contest. That's not to mention the fact that it has held seven straight opponents to 90 or fewer field goal attempts and three of those seven opponents to less than 80. That spells trouble for a Bulls squad that has seen its season go off the rails, losing nine of its last 12 games. Chicago has knocked down fewer than 40 field goals in four of its last six games. Meanwhile, it has given up 42, 47, 40 and 50 made field goals over its last four contests. Look for a revenge-minded Pelicans squad (the Bulls took the only previous meeting this season by 16 points in Chicago back in October) to prevail on Thursday. Take New Orleans (10*). | |||||||
03-24-22 | Pacers +12.5 v. Grizzlies | 103-133 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Indiana plus the points over Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. The Pacers suffered a disappointing home loss to the lowly Kings last night, snapping a two-game winning streak. I look for them to bounce back with a better performance against a much tougher opponents in Memphis on Thursday. Note that the Pacers continue to thrive offensively, making good on 41+ field goals in eight straight games entering Thursday's contest. On the flip side, we've seen Indiana hold its last three opponents to 79, 81 and 82 field goal attempts. I don't need to tell you that if they're able to continue that trend here it will be awfully tough for the Grizzlies to cover such a lofty pointspread. Memphis is coming off a dominant win over the Nets at home last night. Like the Pacers, they've continued to roll offensively, however they've actually allowed 41+ made field goals in four of their last five contests - only the reeling Rockets failed to reach that mark over that stretch. Here, I think there's a good chance we see Memphis 'manage' proceedings, noting that it has a four-game in six-night stretch on deck, beginning Saturday against the defending champion Bucks. Take Indiana (9*). | |||||||
03-24-22 | Canucks v. Wild -198 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota over Vancouver at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. We'll fade the Canucks off last night's stunning 3-1 win in Colorado. Keep in mind, Vancouver is just one game removed from losing at home against Buffalo. There really wasn't anything special about the Canucks performance in Colorado last night. The Avs quite simply looked flat. Here, the Canucks are unlikely to benefit from such a lifeless opponent as the Wild are making up for lost time, winners of three games in a row, outscoring the opposition 10-3 along the way. Minnesota has been a terrific positive momentum play, having gone a perfect 9-0 when playing at home after allowing two goals or less in consecutive games this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 2.3 goals in that situation. The Wild check in an incredible 21-4 when playing at home off a home win over the last two seasons, averaging 4.0 goals and outscoring the opposition by 1.6 goals on average in that spot. The Canucks, meanwhile, are 3-17 when playing the second of back-to-backs over the last two seasons, allowing 4.3 goals on average and outscored by an average margin of 2.0 goals in that situation. Take Minnesota (6*). | |||||||
03-24-22 | Cavs v. Raptors OVER 214.5 | 104-117 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Toronto at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. Are the Cavaliers a bad defensive team? They certainly have been lately, allowing 43, 41, 46, 41 and 53 made field goals and 109+ points in each of their last five games. Things won't get any easier against a Raptors squad that returns home off a double-digit loss in Chicago two nights ago. While Toronto didn't have a great night shooting the ball against the Bulls, it continues to force the issue offensively, getting off 94, 102, 96. 83, 97, 93 and 91 field goal attempts over its last seven games. Defensively, the Raps have been a bit of a mixed bag lately. Here, they'll host a Cavs squad that has continued to thrive offensively, knocking down 44, 45 and 45 field goals over their last three games and scoring 113+ points in five consecutive games. While the last meeting between these two teams on March 6th was of the low-scoring variety (200 total points scored), just two matchups back the Cavs hung 144 points on the Raps, shooting a ridiculous 56-for-106 from the field in that victory. With Toronto having lost all three previous meetings in this series this season we can expect it to go all out on Thursday, I'm just not convinced it will be able to run away and hide, and that type of situation lends itself to a relatively high-scoring affair. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
03-24-22 | Arkansas +9.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 74-68 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
Sweet 16 Game of the Year. My selection is on Arkansas plus the points over Gonzaga at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. Arkansas enters this showdown with Gonzaga having dropped the cash in three straight games so this is a slam dunk for the number-one ranked Bulldogs, right? I'm not so sure. The Razorbacks have thrived in the role of underdog, going a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four games in that role. The Hogs are here despite knocking down just 14 field goals against New Mexico State. Only once previously this season did they make good on fewer than 20 field goals in a game (they still won that contest against Tennessee). In their next game following that poor shooting performance, they knocked down 29-of-63 field goal attempts in an 82-74 win at Florida. Here, the Hogs should be afforded plenty of scoring opportunities, noting that Gonzaga yields a ton of FG attempts, generally between 60-70 per game (an average of 65 away from home this season). Of course, the Razorbacks haven't been a great shooting team this season but they 'find a way' getting to the free throw line at an incredible rate. There's certainly room for some regression from the Zags offense here after shooting 51% and 52% in their first two games in this tournament. Arkansas certainly poses a challenge defensively, ranking 14th in the country according to KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency metric. The Razorbacks check in having allowed 53 or fewer FG attempts in three of their last five games. I like the 'no one believes in us' angle that underdogs of this nature tend to carry at this point of the tournament, and that's certainly been played up by Hogs head coach Eric Musselman in the days leading up to this game. I look for this one to go down to the wire. Take Arkansas (10*). | |||||||
03-23-22 | 76ers -7 v. Lakers | Top | 126-121 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Lakers are coming off a surprising double-digit win on Monday night in Cleveland. Perhaps that victory shouldn't have come as much of a surprise, however, given Lebron James is obviously always going to get up for homecoming games, not to mention the fact that the Cavs have been playing an uneven brand of basketball for weeks now. We should see a different story unfold on Wednesday as the Lakers return home to host the 76ers. Philadelphia posted a seven-point win over Miami as an eight-point underdog on Monday (without Joel Embiid and James Harden). The Sixers have been smothering opposing offenses, holding four of their last five opponents to 82 or fewer field goal attempts. Their last four opponents have managed to knock down only 39, 37, 35 and 38 field goals. That's a stark contrast to the Lakers non-existent defense, which has yielded 40, 49, 44 and 45 made field goals over its last four contests. Yes, L.A. has gone off offensively over its last few games but it will be taking a step up in class here against a 76ers defense that allows an average of 39-for-85 shooting on the road this season, including just 11-of-33 from three-point range. Take Philadelphia (10*). | |||||||
03-23-22 | Washington State v. BYU -3 | Top | 77-58 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
NIT Game of the Year. My selection is on BYU minus the points over Washington State at 9 pm et on Wednesday. I don't believe BYU is getting enough respect given how well it has played over the last month. The Cougars check in 5-2 SU and ATS over their last seven contests with their only two losses over that stretch coming against NCAA Tournament-bound teams in St. Mary's and San Francisco. While Washington State has been playing well also, having won six of its last seven overall, it has also caught some good fortune along the way, particularly here in the NIT as its last two opponents have combined to shoot a woeful 40-of-118 from the field. Some of that can obviously be chalked up to good defense, but I'm of the belief that sometimes the shots just don't fall (note that prior to its last two contests, Washington State had allowed 25+ made field goals in five of its last seven games). Note that the Cougars of Washington State have actually afforded their opponents plenty of scoring opportunities, yielding 64, 61, 60 and 58 field goal attempts over their last four games. Give BYU that many chances and it will take advantage, noting that the Cougars are scorching hot right now, having made good on 32+ field goals in four of their last six games and and incredible 72-for-134 from the field over their last two contests alone. Meanwhile, the BYU defense has done a good job of limiting its opponents opportunities, allowing 58 or fewer FG attempts in four straight games. Keep in mind, Washington State has struggled to knock down its shots all season, particularly away from home where it averages only 24-of-61 shooting. By contrast, BYU has averaged four more field goals per game on one fewer attempt here at home (28-of-60). Take BYU (10*). | |||||||
03-23-22 | Devils v. Maple Leafs -1.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -121 | 7 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto -1.5 goals over New Jersey at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. I expect to see a real sense of urgency from the Leafs on Wednesday given the fact they were recently tripped up in a few expected wins against league bottom-feeders (two losses against Buffalo and one against Arizona). Here they catch the Devils in a favorable spot noting that New Jersey is 0-7 when coming off a win by two goals or more against a division opponent this season, outscored by an average margin of 1.9 goals in that situation. When playing on the road after consecutive games that totalled 7+ goals, we've seen the Devils go a miserable 1-10, outscored by 2.4 goals on average in that spot. As for the Leafs, they've been excellent when returning home following a road game, going 14-1 in that spot while outscoring the opposition by 2.0 goals on average this season. Again, I expect to see a sense of urgency from the Leafs here after getting shelled 6-3 in Nashville on Saturday. Take Toronto -1.5 goals (8*). | |||||||
03-22-22 | Clippers v. Nuggets UNDER 223 | 115-127 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Denver at 10 pm et on Tuesday. We've missed with the 'under' in the Nuggets last two games but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as they host the struggling Clippers on Tuesday. Note that Denver's most recent game just as easily could have stayed 'under' were it not for the red hot Celtics absolutely shooting the lights out. Remember, two games back the Nuggets game in Cleveland stayed 'under' the total for us in regulation time before flying 'over' thanks to overtime. The pace simply hasn't been there for a sustainable 'over' run when it comes to Denver. It has now held nine of its last 11 opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts in regulation time including each of its last four. Meanwhile, the Denver offense cooled off last game, knocking down just 35-of-87 FG attempts against the Celtics. Note that the Nuggets have gotten off 90 or fewer FG attempts in regulation time in 14 consecutive games. The Clippers meanwhile desperately need to tighten things up after three straight losses. I'm confident they'll do just that on Tuesday, noting that they've been idle since a blowout loss in Utah on Friday. L.A. has had a tough enough time just getting shots off let alone knocking them down lately, shooting 38-of-78 and 31-of-86 over its last two games. Note that the 'under' is 11-2 with the Clips playing on the road off a double-digit loss over the last two seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 203.7 points. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
03-22-22 | Vanderbilt v. Xavier OVER 143 | Top | 73-75 | Win | 100 | 27 h 34 m | Show |
NIT Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Vanderbilt and Xavier at 9 pm et on Tuesday. While the pace has certainly been there, Xavier has seen its first two NIT matchups stay 'under' the total. I look for that to change on Tuesday as they host Vanderbilt in quarter-final action. The Musketeers game against Florida on Sunday certainly looked on track to fly 'over' the total early but Florida settled into a scoring drought and never really recovered, ultimately making good on just 21-of-64 field goal attempts in a 72-56 Xavier win. Now we're being offered the lowest total we've seen in Xavier's three NIT games and I believe it will prove too low. The Musketeers have yielded 60+ FG attempts in five straight and nine of their last 11 games overall. The 'over' has cashed at a 7-4 clip over that stretch. We know Vandy is comfortable pushing the pace, noting that it has hoisted up 62+ FG attempts in four of its last five contests. In the only game where it didn't it still managed to score in the 80's against Alabama. On the flip side, the Commodores have yielded 67, 61, 60 and 56 FG attempts themselves over their last four games. Opponents have generally been 'filling it up' against them, knocking down 24, 30, 27 and 26 field goals over those four contests with the 'over' going a perfect 4-0 along the way. For its part, Xavier checks in having made good on 35, 33, 24 and 26 field goals over its last four games, scoring 72+ points in all four games. We don't need a track meet to cash this ticket but I do think we'll see a relatively high-scoring affair on Tuesday night. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
03-22-22 | Rangers -145 v. Devils | 4-7 | Loss | -145 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over New Jersey at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Rangers just came up with an impressive sweep in Tampa and Carolina, on back-to-back nights no less, but it's all for not if they can't complete the perfect road trip with a win in New Jersey on Tuesday. New York has to feel pretty good about itself after bolstering its roster with a number of savvy pre-trade deadline moves. I expect that confidence to manifest itself on the ice on Tuesday as the Rangers face the reeling Devils before enjoying a couple of days off and then hosting the Penguins on Friday. Note that New York checks in 7-1 after scoring two goals or less in consecutive games this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 1.5 goals on average in that situation. The Devils return home following a disastrous western Canadian road swing that saw them lose three consecutive games by identical 6-3 scores. Here, we'll note that New Jersey is a woeful 13-31 when playing at home after losing four or five of its last six games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscored by 0.7 goals on average in that spot. Take New York (8*). | |||||||
03-21-22 | Predators v. Ducks UNDER 6 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
NHL Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Nashville and Anaheim at 10:05 pm et on Monday. The Predators check in off consecutive 'over' results but I look for a different story to unfold as they head to Anaheim to face the Ducks on Monday. While Nashville averages 3.3 goals per game on the season, that number drops to 2.6 goals per game when it comes off a game in which it scored 5+ goals, as is the case here. The 'under' has gone 9-1 in that situation this season with an average total of just 4.4 goals. Better still, the 'under' is a perfect 9-0 when the Preds play on the road after scoring 6+ goals in their previous game over the last two seasons with that spot producing an average total of just 3.7 goals. We cashed with the 'under' in a similar situation last week as they followed up a 6-2 win in Minnesota with a 4-1 victory over Pittsburgh. As for Anaheim, it has been held to three goals or less in seven straight games, losing each of its last six contests. That's notable as the Ducks have seen the 'under' go 43-21 the last 64 times they've come off 5+ consecutive losses, with an average total of just 5.2 goals in that situation. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-21-22 | Celtics v. Thunder UNDER 216.5 | 132-123 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Oklahoma City at 8:10 pm et on Monday. We missed with the 'under' in the Celtics rout of the Nuggets last night but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Monday as they head to Oklahoma City to take on the Thunder. This is certainly a game I can envision the Celtics 'managing' as they wrap up a four-game in six-night road trip - one that has been highly-successful as they've won all three games so far. After shooting a blistering 56% and 57% over their last two games I do anticipate some regression from the C's here. Note that Boston is by no means pushing the pace, having gotten off 88, 81, 82 and 82 field goal attempts in its last four games. On the flip side, perhaps no team in the league is as locked-in defensively as Boston right now. It has limited each of its last six opponents to 36 or fewer made field goals. You would have to go back to March 3rd to find the last time an opponent got off 90+ field goal attempts. Oklahoma City scored just 85 points in last night's loss in Orlando, clearly looking like a team that's running out of gas missing a number of key contributors, and one that will now be playing its sixth game in the last nine nights (in four different cities) on Monday. The Thunder have to realize their only hope of staying remotely competitive in this game is by mucking things up and turning it into a slugfest, especially if Shae-Gilgeous Alexander is forced to miss a second straight game (he remains questionable at the time of writing). The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled 216 points, but that contest was played at a faster pace than I'm projecting tonight (OKC got off 96 FG attempts and the two teams combined to make good on 35 three-pointers - they average just 25 combined per game this season). Take the under (8*). | |||||||
03-21-22 | USC Upstate v. South Alabama UNDER 142 | 79-83 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between USC Upstate and South Alabama at 8 pm et on Monday. USC Upstate enters this contest off consecutive 'over' results while South Alabama saw its opening round matchup stay 'under' the total. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair than most. The visiting Spartans stunned heavily-favored Appalachian State to get to this game. In that contest, they knocked down 30-of-66 field goals - two numbers I don't expect them to approach against an incredibly stingy South Alabama squad on Monday. Note that the Jaguars have held opponents to an average of 21-of-56 shooting at home this season, including just six made three-pointers per game. On the flip side, South Alabama managed to put up 70 points in a narrow win over Southeast Louisiana in its tournament opener. Of course, it needed 61 field goal attempts to get there, making good on 28 of them. Note that the Jaguars don't generally look to push the pace. Prior to their last game, you would have to go all the way back to January 6th to find the last time they hoisted up more than 58 FG attempts in a game. Meanwhile, USC Upstate has held three of its last five opponents to 54 or fewer FG attempts. The only two opponents to top that mark over that stretch only managed to make good on 24 and 20 of those attempts. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
03-21-22 | Lakers v. Cavs UNDER 227 | Top | 131-120 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Monday. The Cavs enter Monday's game on the heels of four consecutive 'over' results. I expect that streak to come to an end here, as they host the road-weary Lakers. We of course missed with the 'under' in the Cavs overtime win over the Nuggets on Friday. We obviously deserved a better fate in that contest as the score stayed 'under' the total in regulation time before eclipsing the number in OT. Cleveland has now held its last three opponents to just 79, 83 and 85 field goal attempts in regulation time. All three opponents happened to shoot considerably better than their season average but I'm not anticipating a similar story to unfold here as the Lakers play their third game in four nights away from home. L.A. actually managed to shoot the lights out on Friday in Toronto and Saturday in Washington. Prior to that, the Lakers had made good on fewer than 40 field goals in three straight games, scoring 111 points or less in all three of those contests. Cleveland isn't likely to push the pace too much in this one, noting that it has gotten off fewer than 90 field goals in regulation time in six consecutive games. The Cavs shot exceptionally well on Saturday night against Detroit (better than 50%) but again, we can expect some regression here as they play their third game in four nights and perhaps look to 'manage' proceedings a little bit here as they take the floor for the seventh time in the last 11 nights. The lone previous meeting between these two teams this season was played at a similar pace to what I'm projecting tonight, and that contest totalled just 214 points. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-21-22 | Northern Colorado v. North Carolina-Asheville +1.5 | Top | 87-84 | Loss | -106 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
CBI Game of the Year. My selection is on UNC-Asheville plus the points over Northern Colorado at 3:30 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams staged upset victories in their respective opening round CBI matchups. I look for UNC-Asheville to be the team playing on following Monday's clash at Daytona Beach. Asheville has been nothing if not consistent offensively, making good on 25+ field goals in eight of its last nine games. While it has proven vulnerable defensively it hasn't shown a tendency to let opponents get out and run recently, limiting five of its last seven opponents to fewer than 60 field goal attempts. That's a stark contrast to Northern Colorado, which has given up 60+ FG attempts in four of its last five games and 70+ in two of its last three contests. Northern Colorado relies heavily on the three-ball to support its offense and that's notable as UNC-Asheville checks in allowing just five made threes per game away from home this season. We've certainly seen some inconsistency from the Bears lately as they're just one game removed from making good on only 19 field goals in an 88-67 loss to Montana State. They've been held to 57 or fewer FG attempts in four of their last six games overall. There's little reason to think Asheville won't be able to 'fill it up' here, with the Bears yielding 25+ made field goals in seven of their last eight games and 28+ in half of those contests. You could certainly argue that Northern Colorado is fortunate to still be playing, surviving against Florida Atlantic last time out despite the Owls getting off 14 more FG attempts in a game that went right down to the wire. Asheville is'nt likely to beat itself here, noting that it has been quite disciplined away from home this season, sending opponents to the free throw line only 15 times per contest while getting there 20 times per game itself. Take UNC-Asheville (10*). | |||||||
03-20-22 | Celtics v. Nuggets UNDER 222 | 124-104 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Denver at 8:10 pm et on Sunday. We suffered a bad beat with the 'under' in the Nuggets last game as overtime ended up pushing the final score 'over' the total in Cleveland. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here, however, as Denver returns home to host the Celtics on Sunday. I'm not sure any team is as locked-in defensively as the Celtics right now. They've held their last five opponents to 36, 35, 33, 32 and 33 made field goals, allowing no more than 86 field goal attempts in any of those contests. Not surprisingly, the 'under' has gone 4-1 over that stretch. Note also that Boston is by no means tearing up and down the floor on offense, getting off just 88, 81 and 82 FG attempts over its last three contests. Meanwhile, Denver checks in off consecutive 'over' results but the pace certainly hasn't been there to dictate that. Note that the Nuggets have held six of their last seven opponents to fewer than 90 FG attempts in regulation time. On the flip side, you would have to go all the way back to February 16th to find the last time they attempted more than 90 field goals in a game. They've gotten off no more than 87 FG attempts in eight of their last nine games. Note that the lone previous meeting between these two teams this season totalled just 210 points and that was a game that was played at a faster pace than I'm anticipating tonight (both teams attempted 90+ field goals in that February 11th game). Take the under (8*). | |||||||
03-20-22 | Miami-FL +7.5 v. Auburn | Top | 79-61 | Win | 100 | 35 h 25 m | Show |
NCAA Tournament Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Auburn at 7:45 pm et on Sunday. At 8-3 ATS over their last 11 games, the Miami Hurricanes have been one of the best bets in the country over the last month-plus. I certainly don't expect them to back down against the Auburn Tigers - one of the favorites to win the National Championship - on Sunday. Miami has been doing a terrific job of limiting its opponents' scoring opportunities and that continued against USC in the opening round. The Canes have held 10 of their last 12 opponents to 58 or fewer field goal attempts. While a number of their recent opponents have made the most of their opportunities, I'm not convinced we'll see Auburn do that here. Note that the Tigers have made good on 28 or fewer field goals in seven straight games, despite getting off 61 or more attempts in all but two of those contests. On the flip side, Auburn's relatively fast-pace does afford opponents plenty of scoring opportunities, as it checks in having yielded 61, 67, 64, 57 and 61 field goal attempts over its last five contests. Miami figures to take advantage, noting that the Canes have knocked down 28+ field goals in nine of their last 10 contests. I actually see this one playing out similarly to the Canes recent ACC Tournament matchup with Duke - a game in which they scored 76 points and lost by only four points. Take Miami (10*). | |||||||
03-20-22 | Michigan State v. Duke OVER 142.5 | 76-85 | Win | 100 | 32 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Michigan State and Duke at 5:15 pm et on Sunday. Michigan State saw its NCAA Tournament opener sail 'over' the total while Duke had its six-game 'over' streak come to an end in its rout of Cal-State Fullerton. Here, I'm anticipating a relatively high-scoring second round affair between the Spartans and Blue Devils. Both offenses can absolutely 'fill it up' with Michigan State having made good on 27+ field goals in six of its last eight games and Duke knocking down 29+ field goals in six of its last seven contests. On the flip side, neither defense has really shown the ability or interest in slowing the pace, with MSU allowing 61, 64, 60, 57 and 59 field goal attempts over its last five games and Duke yielding 64+ FG attempts in each of its last five contests. The opportunities to run this score up should certainly be there on Sunday, noting that the Spartans allow an average of 59 FG attempts per game away from home with the Blue Devils yielding an average of 62 away from Cameron Indoor Stadium. The only thing keeping me from going to a higher rating is the fact that both teams are fairly disciplined and we're unlikely to see a parade to the free throw line at any point in this one. Take the over (9*). | |||||||
03-20-22 | Stars +1.5 v. Capitals | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas +1.5 goals over Washington at 5:05 pm et on Sunday. The Stars check in off a 4-2 loss to the Islanders yesterday but I look for them to bounce back against the red hot Capitals on Sunday in Washington. The Caps have won four games in a row but are in a bit of a tough spot here, noting that they've gone just 5-10 when playing at home off a win this season, outscored by 0.3 goals on average in that situation. Worse still, they're 3-7 when playing at home after scoring 3+ goals in three straight games this season, as is the case here, outscored by 0.6 goals on average in that spot. Additionally, they're 0-5 when playing at home after scoring four or more goals in consecutive games, which is also the case here, allowing 4.0 goals on average while being outscored by an average of 1.6 goals in that spot. Dallas, meanwhile, is 9-2 when seeking revenge for a loss where their opponent scored 4+ goals this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 1.0 goal on average along the way. Take Dallas +1.5 goals (6*). | |||||||
03-20-22 | Grizzlies v. Rockets OVER 235 | Top | 122-98 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 48 m | Show |
NBA Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Memphis and Houston at 3:40 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams are coming off 'under' results but I look for a different story to unfold when they match up on Sunday afternoon in Houston. The Grizzlies offense got bogged down in a 120-105 loss in Atlanta on Friday, getting off just 85 field goal attempts in the loss. Keep in mind, they had hoisted up 92+ field goal attempts in seven straight games prior to that, including 101 or more in each of their last four contests. Here, the Rockets are unlikely to contain the Grizzlies offense, noting that Houston has yielded 91+ FG attempts in six of its last seven games, allowing seven straight opponents to knock down 40+ field goals with six of those opponents making good on at least 44 field goals. On the flip side, we've seen the Rockets make good on exactly 39 field goals in two of their last three games but that's had more to do with slow pace than anything else. Here, they should be afforded the opportunity to get out and run against a Grizzlies defense that has permitted 90+ FG attempts in four straight games. The Rockets attempted just 82 field goals in their most recent meeting with Memphis back on March 6th, but still managed to score 123 points. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
03-20-22 | Florida v. Xavier OVER 144 | 56-72 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Florida and Xavier at 1 pm et on Sunday. We missed with the 'over' in Xavier's NIT opener against Cleveland State. We probably deserved a better fate as the pace was certainly there to get that one 'over' the total. Xavier continues to push the pace at every opportunity, hoisting up 60+ field goal attempts in six of its last seven games. The Musketeers simply had an off night shooting the ball against Cleveland State, noting that they made good on just 24-of-62 FG attempts. Keep in mind, prior to that, Xavier had knocked down 33 and 35 field goals over its last two contests. Here, it will face a Florida squad that has allowed 29, 27, 30, 28, 24 and 29 field goals over its last six games. Not surprisingly, the 'over' has gone 5-1 over that stretch. Like Xavier, Florida continues to force the issue offensively, getting off 60+ FG attempts in four of its last five contests. The Gators have made good on 25+ field goals in six straight games. Xavier has certainly allowed the opposition to 'fill it up' lately, yielding 27+ made field goals in seven of its last eight games. Take the over (9*). | |||||||
03-19-22 | New Orleans v. Portland OVER 153.5 | 73-94 | Win | 100 | 24 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Portland at 10 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams will be looking to get out and run in their Basketball Classic opener on Saturday night. New Orleans hoisted up 62+ field goals in four of their last five games heading into this tournament. The Privateers bowed out of the Southland Conference Tournament thanks to a brutal shooting performance against Southeast Louisiana. I certainly expect them to bounce back here, noting that they knocked down 28+ field goals in six of their last eight contests. Here, they'll be afforded plenty of scoring opportunities against a Portland squad that allowed 27, 24, 36, 23 and 31 made field goals over its last five games, showing no ability or interest in controlling their opponents tempo down the stretch. The Pilots have allowed 10 of their last 12 opponents to get off at least 58 field goal attempts. Offensively, we saw Portland round into form down the stretch, making good on 34, 29, 24, 35, 27 and 25 field goals over its last six contests. Here at home this season, the Pilots make an average of 27 field goals per game including eight from beyond the arc, while also getting to the free throw line 22 times per contest. New Orleans should offer little in the way of resistance, allowing 28, 30, 26, 31, 25 and 26 field goals over its last six games. Away from home this season, the Privateers have yielded 28-of-62 shooting on average, including eight made threes per game. Like Portland, New Orleans also lived at the free throw line for much of the season, particularly away from home where it averages 25 free throw attempts per game. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
03-19-22 | Lakers v. Wizards -1.5 | 119-127 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. Both teams are in a back-to-back spot here and while the Lakers check in off an overtime win over the Raptors, the Wizards are coming off their sixth consecutive loss. I like Washington to bounce back here, however, as it returns home before heading out on the road for another three. The Wizards offense has gotten bogged down lately, attempting 87 or fewer field goals in 10 straight games, winning only twice over that stretch. Here, it should benefit from a lot more scoring opportunities against a Lakers squad that has had no ability, or interest in controlling opponents' tempo, yielding 90+ FG attempts in seven of their last nine contests. This is a quick rematch between these two teams after the Lakers won by 13 in Los Angeles last Friday. L.A. shot the lights out in that game but I expect a different story to unfold here, noting that the Lakers average just 109.0 points per game when coming off a win this season (2.1 points per game less than their season scoring average), outscored by 3.8 points on average in that spot. Take Washington (8*). | |||||||
03-19-22 | Richmond v. Providence OVER 134 | Top | 51-79 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 13 m | Show |
NCAA Tournament Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Richmond and Providence at 6:10 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams saw their opening round games stay 'under' the total and as a result we're dealing with a reasonably low total here. Richmond has actually seen consecutive 'unders', even if the pace in yesterday's upset win over Iowa would have usually dictated an 'over' result. The Spiders were certainly fortunate to catch Iowa on an off day shooting-wise, perhaps suffering from a letdown following its Big Ten Tournament championship run. The Hawkeyes got off 66 field goal attempts against Richmond but could only knock down 24 of them. It was a similar story in the A-10 Tournament final as Davidson shot 19-of-51 against the Spiders. Here, I'm anticipating a better shooting performance from Providence. The Friars had a poor day shooting the basketball yesterday as well, not all that surprising as teams adjust to playing in new venues in the tournament's opening weekend. Providence did hoist up 61 FG attempts but made good on just 24 of them. Note that prior to that, the Friars had seen each of their last four games in which they attempted 60+ field goals go 'over' the total. Going back to February 15th, Providence has attempted 62, 60, 68, 59, 56, 54, 65 and 61 field goals so it has certainly been making an effort to push the tempo. Like the Spiders, the Friars benefited from yesterday's opponent - normally explosive South Dakota State - shooting a woeful 22-of-57 from the field. Providence has yielded plenty of scoring opportunities in recent games, allowing 79, 59, 57, 61, 57 and 57 FG attempts over its last six contests. It's certainly worth noting that yesterday's game against the Jackrabbits also featured just 21 free throw attempts. The Spiders and Friars combine to average 39 free throw attempts per game this season. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
03-19-22 | Michigan v. Tennessee UNDER 136.5 | 76-68 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Michigan and Tennessee at 5:15 pm et on Saturday. Michigan enters this game off three consecutive 'over' results while Tennessee posted an 'over' result of its own in its tournament-opening blowout win over Longwood. Here, I expect a different story to unfold as the two power programs match up in round two. Tennessee should be able to frustrate the Michigan offense here, noting that the Vols have limited three of their last four opponents to 52 or fewer field goal attempts. Over that stretch they've given up just 19, 22, 16 and 20 made field goals. On the season, Tennessee yields just 22 made field goals per game away from home including only six made threes per contest. While Michigan ended up scoring 75 points in its tournament-opening win over Colorado State, it only got there thanks to shooting the lights out. The Wolverines actually only managed to get off 48 FG attempts in that contest. It was a similar story for the Vols, as they attempted 55 field goals against Longwood, making good on 33 of them. That certainly hasn't been the norm for Tennessee, however, noting that it has made good on 24 or fewer field goals in seven of its last 11 games overall. You would have to go back six games to find the last time the Vols attempted 60+ field goals, and even in that contest they only managed to knock down 27. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
03-19-22 | Western Illinois v. UTEP OVER 144 | Top | 54-80 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 45 m | Show |
The Basketball Classic Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Western Illinois and UTEP at 3 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams enter this tournament off 'under' results but I look for a different story to unfold when they match up on Saturday afternoon. Western Illinois is one of the fastest-paced teams in the country, particularly away from home where it averages a whopping 66 field goal attempts per game. That's a stark contrast to what UTEP is accustomed to facing. I also feel the Miners could be in for a bit of a 'shock to the system' here given WIU averages 10 more three-point attempts per game than UTEP has faced this season. While I do consider the Miners to be a quality defensive team, they weren't at their best down the stretch, allowing 23+ made field goals in each of their last seven games, despite playing at a reasonably slow pace (only one of their opponents over that stretch got off 60+ FG attempts and that game against Old Dominion went 'over' the total by double-digits). Of course, WIU is one of the weaker defensive teams in the nation. It checks in having allowed seven of its last 10 opponents to make good on 30+ field goals with the 'over' going 6-4 over that stretch. UTEP actually rounded into form offensively down the stretch, knocking down 25, 29, 22, 28 and 24 field goals over its last five contests. Again, that's more impressive when you consider the slow pace the Miners generally play at (they attempted more than 57 field goals just once over that five-game stretch). I'm not convinced the opening round of 'The Basketball Classic' is the time and place for a defensive slugfest. I'm anticipating plenty of offensive fireworks here. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
03-19-22 | Blackhawks v. Wild OVER 6 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -125 | 19 h 1 m | Show |
Central Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Minnesota at 2:05 pm et on Saturday. The Blackhawks are coming off a low-scoring game against the Bruins last time out but I expect a different story to unfold as they head to Minnesota to face the division-rival Wild on Saturday afternoon. Note that the Wild took the most recent meeting between these two teams by a 5-0 score in Chicago back on February 2nd. That's notable as the Blackhawks have averaged 3.4 goals per game when playing on the road seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent in which they scored one goal or less over the last three seasons. Better still, they average 3.5 goals per game when playing on the road seeking revenge for three straight losses against an opponent over the last three seasons, as is the case here. Also of note, the 'over' is 26-14 with Chicago coming off a game in which four or fewer total goals were scored over the last three seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 6.7 goals. The Wild have seen the 'over' go 15-2 when coming off a home win this season, producing an average total of 7.8 goals in that situation. Both teams have had issues between the pipes lately. Blackhawks regular starter Marc-Andre Fleury has posted an .896 save percentage over his last four starts while the Wild haven't gotten much from Cam Talbot or Kaapo Kahkonen, with that duo posting .887 and .908 save percentages respectively over their last four games. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
03-19-22 | North Carolina v. Baylor UNDER 149 | 93-86 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between North Carolina and Baylor at 12:10 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'over' in North Carolina's first game of this tournament - a stunning rout of Marquette on Thursday. Here, I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'under' as the Tar Heels face a much tougher challenge in the form of the defending national champion Baylor Bears. Baylor has allowed 28 or fewer made field goals in nine straight games. The only opponent to reach that 28 mark was Iowa State and that game still totalled only 143 points. Note that Baylor checks in having held its last three opponents to just 59, 51 and 57 field goal attempts. North Carolina shot the lights out against Marquette, making good on 34-of-74 FG attempts. It went off from three-point range in particular but now goes up against a Bears squad that guards the perimeter fiercely, allowing only six made threes per contest away from home this season. The Bears knocked down 31-of-54 FG attempts in their NCAA Tournament opener against Norfolk State. Note that prior to that they had made good on 28 or fewer field goals in eight straight contests. For its part, North Carolina has allowed 27 or fewer made field goals in nine of its last 11 games overall and also sends opponents to the free throw line only 15 times per game away from home this season. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
03-18-22 | Clippers +6.5 v. Jazz | Top | 92-121 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Utah at 9:10 pm et on Friday. The Clippers enter Friday's game in Utah off consecutive losses but extended losing streaks have certainly not been common for them this season, with their longest lasting just three games. I expect them to bounce back here against an undermanned Jazz squad that will be without both Donovan Mitchell and Bojan Bogdanovic (that duo combined to shoot 17-of-25 in the most recent meeting between these two teams in December). While Los Angeles has lost back-to-back games, I like what I've seen from it defensively as it has limited its last three opponents to just 80, 86 and 83 field goal attempts. Of the Clippers last eight opponents, only two have managed to get off 90+ FG attempts. After allowing five straight opponents to make good on 41 or more field goals, the Clips have now held two of their last three opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. The Jazz haven't been able to get out and run as much as they would likely lately, and when they have, they've struggled shooting the ball. They've attempted fewer than 90 field goals in six of their last eight contests. In the other two games they shot a miserable 37-of-92 and 37-of-93 in outright losses as favorites against the Bucks and Spurs. Meanwhile, Utah has allowed its last three opponents to knock down 47, 40 and 43 field goals, giving up 125, 117 and 110 points in the process. Of Utah's last eight opponents, four of them have gotten off 91+ FG attempts. Keep in mind, the Clippers are just one game removed from hoisting up 98 FG attempts in a loss to the Cavs. I think we'll see the revenge-minded Clips afforded plenty of scoring opportunities in this one. Note that while Utah took the most recent meeting between these two teams, that was only thanks to shooting the lights out (47-of-89 - with Mitchell and Bogdanovic key contributors as I mentioned earlier). Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
03-18-22 | Nuggets v. Cavs UNDER 223 | 116-119 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Cleveland at 7:40 pm et on Friday. The Nuggets saw their most recent game go 'over' the total in Washington two nights ago (we missed with the 'under' in that contest) while the Cavs have seen their last two games go 'over' the total, not to mention four of their last five overall. With that being said, we're dealing with a higher posted total here than we saw in the first meeting between these two teams back in late October - a game that totalled just 186 points in Denver. That game was played at a similar pace to what we can probably expect here and while I do look for both teams to shoot better than they did on that night, I'm not sure it will be enough to get this one 'over' the total as we certainly have plenty of wiggle room to work with. Note that the Nuggets have by no means been playing at a frenetic pace. They've gotten off 87 or fewer field goal attempts in seven of their last eight and 10 of their last 12 games overall. In the two outliers over that stretch they attempted just 90 field goals on both occasions. That's not to mention the fact that they've held five of their last six opponents to 88 or fewer FG attempts. They're just one game removed from holding a good 76ers offense to 36-of-84 shooting, on the road no less. Likewise, the Cavs haven't been playing at a pace that would dictate their recent run of 'over' results. They've gotten off 79, 86, 86 and 80 FG attempts over their last four games and have made good on fewer than 40 field goals in eight of their last 11 contests. I do think Cleveland is a better defensive team than it has shown lately, most recently allowing the aforementioned 76ers to shoot a blistering 41-of-79 from the field in a 118-114 loss two nights ago. Note that the Cavs have allowed an average of 38-of-87 shooting here at home this season, where the 'under' has gone 22-10-1. I'm not sure that either team will be interested in a track meet here, noting that the Nuggets are in the midst of a stretch that sees them play eight games in 13 nights (in four different cities) while the Cavs are in the front-half of a back-to-back in a stretch that sees them play six games in nine nights (including tomorrow's home game against Detroit). Take the under (9*). | |||||||
03-18-22 | Capitals v. Hurricanes -150 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -150 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
NHL Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Carolina over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams played last night with the Capitals defeating the Blue Jackets 7-2 and the Hurricanes falling by a 3-2 score in Toronto. That makes it consecutive losses for the Canes but I like their chances of bouncing back here, as they look to earn their first victory in three tries against the Caps this season. Note that Washington is just 6-12 when coming off a road win this season, allowing 3.5 goals per game and outscored by an average margin of 0.3 goals in that situation. Worse still, the Caps check in 3-9 when coming off consecutive games in which they scored 4+ goals this season, as is the case here, allowing 3.7 goals per game and outscored by 0.5 goals on average in that spot. The Canes, meanwhile, have allowed just 1.9 goals per game when playing at home after losing two of their last three games over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.8 goals on average in that situation (16-game sample size). Carolina has of course been terrific at home this season, going 23-6, outscoring opponents by 1.4 goals on average while allowing just 2.0 goals per game. Here, the Canes could benefit from facing struggling Caps goaltender Ilya Samsonov after Vitek Vanecek started the last three games, including last night's contest in Columbus. Samsonov owns an ugly .860 save percentage over his last four starts. Meanwhile, Canes backup Antti Raanta may get the start in this game. He's actually been their better goaltender lately, posting a terrific .945 save percentage over his last four starts with Carolina winning three of those contests. Take Carolina (10*). | |||||||
03-18-22 | Chattanooga +8 v. Illinois | Top | 53-54 | Win | 100 | 53 h 1 m | Show |
NCAA Tournament First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Chattanooga plus the points over Illinonis at 6:50 pm et on Friday. I'm confident Chattanooga will be afforded more than enough opportunities to ultimately make life difficult on Illinois and ultimately take this one down to the wire. The Mocs are one of the more underrated teams entering this tournament in my opinion. They caught fire down the stretch and come in playing extremely consistent basketball at both ends of the floor. The Mocs knocked down 25+ field goals in each of their last eight games. You would have to go all the way back to January 12th to find the last time they failed to reach at least 21 made field goals in a game - in fact that was the only time that happened all season. While I'm well aware that Chattanooga plays in a lower-tier conference than Illinois but let's face it, upsets happen in March. The Mocs are capable of hanging with the Illini here, noting that they've done a terrific job of limiting their opponents opportunities, especially when the chips were down, allowing just 54, 57, 48 and 52 field goal attempts over their last four games. No surprise they yielded 66 points or fewer in all four of those contests. They only allowed 60+ FG attempts in four of their last 17 games. The argument could be made that Illinois peaked in late February, when they delivered consecutive wins over Ohio State and Michigan. From there the Illini went 0-3 ATS over their last three games. In one of those contests they outlasted Penn State 60-55 in a game where they knocked down just 18 field goals. While Chattanooga has done a tremendous job of controlling its opponents' tempo, Illinois checks in having yielded 60+ FG attempts in seven of their last 16 games. Again, I realize the gap between the two conferences but I still feel the discrepancy is worth noting. The Illini allowed 27+ made field goals in five of their last seven games. I don't believe there's as much separating these two teams as seems to be indicated by the pointspread. Take Chattanooga (10*). | |||||||
03-18-22 | Miami-FL v. USC OVER 139.5 | 68-66 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and USC at 3:10 pm et on Friday. While it met its demise at the hands of Duke in the ACC Tournament semi-final round, there's no denying Miami heads into this tournament playing well, particularly at the offensive end of the floor. In fact, you'd be hard-pressed to find another team performing as efficiently offensively heading in. Going back to February 12th, the Canes have knocked down 28+ made field goals in nine consecutive games. Not surprisingly, the 'over' cashed in six of those nine contests. On the flip side, Miami has allowed four of its last five opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field. The Canes have shown no ability or interest in controlling their opponents' tempo and yielded 28+ made field goals in four of their last five contests. USC got bogged down a bit in the Pac-12 Tournament, seeing its two games stay 'under' the total. The Trojans have yielded 60+ FG attempts in eight of their last 10 games and unlike a lot of their opponents in the Pac-12, the Canes figure to take advantage here. USC wasn't able to get out and run as much as it would have liked to in its last few games but we know that it can, and Miami should afford it that opportunity here. Prior to a poor performance against a terrific UCLA defense, the Trojans had made good on 33, 26, 27, 25 and 25 field goals over their previous five contests. Take the over (9*). | |||||||
03-18-22 | Delaware v. Villanova UNDER 133.5 | 60-80 | Loss | -105 | 49 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Delaware and Villanova at 2:45 pm et on Friday. Delaware heads into this tournament on a five-game 'under' streak while Villanova has posted three consecutive 'under' results. I expect that trend to continue here. The Blue Hens may have ran the table in the CAA Tournament but you could argue that they limp into the NCAA Tournament from an offensive standpoint. You would have to go back to February 24th to find the last time they knocked down more than 26 field goals in a game. That was an outlier game that totalled a whopping 195 points against Charleston. All told, Delaware made good on 24 or fewer field goals in six of its last eight games. While the Blue Hens offense has lagged with the games getting tougher, their defensive has thrived. They check in having allowed 23 or fewer field goals in seven of their last nine contests. In fact, they've yielded fewer than 60 field goal attempts in six of their last seven games. Given the way Villanova plays, this one could very well have an 'old school basketball' kind of feel. The Wildcats have allowed 24, 26, 25, 20, 27, 22 and 19 made field goals over their last seven games, giving up 66 points or less in five of those contests. While Villanova can be an effective, efficient offensive team, it hasn't been lately, making good on 21, 23, 30, 20, 23 and 19 field goals over its last six games. It got off 57 or fewer FG attempts in seven of its last eight contests. I'm not convinced that Delaware is the team to really allow the Wildcats to open things up, nor do I think 'Nova is all that interested in that type of affair here. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
03-17-22 | Vermont +5.5 v. Arkansas | Top | 71-75 | Win | 100 | 80 h 18 m | Show |
My selection is on Vermont plus the points over Arkansas at 9:20 pm et on Thursday. There's obviously a lot of mental gymnastics that need to take place to figure out where teams from completely different conferences (and in turn level of opposition) stand as we head into the opening round matchups in the NCAA Tournament. Here, I do like Vermont's chances against what I consider to be an overrated Arkansas squad. The Catamounts absolutely laid waste to the opposition in the America East Conference down the stretch. Over their last eight games they've allowed more than 20 field goals in a game only three times (23 was the high-water mark over that stretch), limiting four of those opponents to 19 or less. I'm not sure their offense gets enough credit. They head into the NCAA Tournament having knocked down 28, 37, 26 and 37 field goals over their last four games, topping out at 63 attempts over that stretch. In other words, they're comfortable playing at a fast pace while also severely limiting their opponents scoring opportunities. Arkansas might just have peaked from mid-February into early-March, culminating with two near-perfect performances in victories over Kentucky and LSU. In three games since, we've seen the Razorbacks make good on just 23, 24 and 23 field goals. Meanwhile, they've been uneven defensively, allowing 30, 26, 23, 18 and 31 made field goals over their last five contests. They haven't really shown all that much interest in controlling their opponents' tempo, yielding 61+ FG attempts in three of their last five games. While Arkansas will undoubtedly be a popular sleeper pick, I expect it to get all it can handle against an experienced and talented Vermont squad on Thursday. Take Vermont (9*). | |||||||
03-17-22 | Islanders v. Rangers UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
Metropolitan Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between the Islanders and Rangers at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. Given the fact that these two teams have only met once previously this season it's easy to forget that this has been a low-scoring series recently with eight of the last nine meetings totalling five goals or less. I expect a similar story to unfold on Thursday. The 'over' has cashed in each of the Islanders last three games - matching their longest such streak of the season. On both previous occasions, their next contest stayed 'under' the total, reaching just three and four goals (both games involved a shutout result oddly enough). Note that the 'under' is 19-8 with the Isles coming off consecutive games that totalled 7+ goals this season, resulting in an average total of 4.6 goals in that situation. The 'under' is also 23-12 with the Isles playing on the road after scoring 3+ goals in consecutive games over the last two seasons, leading to an average total of 4.8 goals in that spot. The Rangers have scored 11 goals over their last two games - their highest scoring output over a two-game stretch this season. The 'under' is 20-11 with the Rangers coming off four or five wins over their last six games, leading to an average total of 5.4 goals. Better still, the 'under' is 9-2 with the Rangers coming off a home win in which they scored 4+ goals this season, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 4.7 goals. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-17-22 | Marquette v. North Carolina OVER 151.5 | Top | 63-95 | Win | 100 | 76 h 35 m | Show |
NCAA Tournament First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Marquette and North Carolina at 4:30 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams lost out in their respective conference tournaments in games that stayed 'under' the total. In the case of North Carolina, it heads into the NCAA Tournament off consecutive 'under' results. I expect a different story to unfold as they meet up in the first round of the tournament on Thursday afternoon. Marquette has certainly endured an uneven season to this point but one thing we know is that the Golden Eagles can 'fill it up', having made good on 30, 35, 23, 32, 29 and 23 field goals over their last six games despite not all of those games being played at all that fast of a pace. Here, we are likely to see an up-tempo affair and I'm confident the Eagles can thrive in that type of environment. Of concern, however, is the fact that Marquette has been lit up for 28+ made field goals in four of its last five contests, with no ability whatsoever to dictate their opponents' tempo over that stretch, allowing Depaul and St. John's in particular to get off 67 and 70 field goal attempts, respectively. Put the Tar Heels into that sort of contest and they'll undoubtedly hang a crooked number on the scoreboard here. North Carolina went down swinging in the ACC Tournament, attempting 60 field goals but simply not hitting nearly enough in its loss to Virginia Tech. Note that the Tar Heels have knocked down 29, 29, 33, 25 and 22 field goals over their last five contests. Over that stretch they attempted fewer than 60 field goals only once, getting up to 65+ in that department on three occasions. Outside of a very limited (offensively) Virginia squad, UNC's opponents have had little trouble scoring, knocking down 27, 25, 31, 34, 18 and 25 field goals over its last six games. Four of the Tar Heels last five opponents scored 72+ points with the lone outlier being Virginia, as I mentioned. These two teams actually have a bit of recent history having met last February in a game that totalled 153 points. That game as played at a slower pace than I'm anticipating here and it's also worth noting that the two teams combined to make just 14 three-pointers (they average 17 per game combined this season) and the Tar Heels shot a miserable 25-of-60 from the field. We've seen an adjustment to the total (that game saw a closing total of 145.5) but I'm not convinced it will be enough. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
03-17-22 | Norfolk State +21.5 v. Baylor | 49-85 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Norfolk State plus the points over Baylor at 2 pm et on Thursday. Baylor has obviously played a lot of basketball since the start of last season, ultimately going all the way to take down last year's National Championship with a memorable NCAA Tournament run. To me, it seemed like the Bears wore down as the regular season went on this year. Note that they check into their first round NCAA Tourney matchup against Norfolk State having gone 8-13 ATS over their last 21 games. To find the last time Baylor knocked down 30+ field goals in a game you would have to go all the way back to January 31st against West Virginia. Even in that game, the Bears only won by four points, failing to sniff out a cover of the 13-point spread. While the Bears are known for their defense, they were by no means a shut down unit in that regard down the stretch. They enter this tourney having allowed 26+ made field goals in five of their last seven contests. Also notable is the fact that they yielded plenty of scoring opportunities, giving up 62, 62, 70, 60, 59 and 51 FG attempts over their last six games. Norfolk State obviously represents a step down in class for the Bears. But let's not completely write off this Spartans squad. They showed the ability to get out and run when they needed to over the course of the season and check in after hitting 29, 31, 21, 26 and 24 field goals over their last five games. Even in the 21 and 24 FG performances they still put up 72+ points on both occasions (note that they attempted exactly 50 FG's in both of those games). Norfolk State was certainly locked-in defensively down the stretch, yielding 23 or fewer made field goals in each of their last six games, despite five of those opponents getting off 59+ FG attempts. I'm not convinced there's enough runway for the Bears to win this one in a true rout. Take Norfolk State (8*). | |||||||
03-16-22 | Notre Dame v. Rutgers OVER 131 | Top | 89-87 | Win | 100 | 60 h 0 m | Show |
NCAA First Four Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Notre Dame and Rutgers at 9:10 pm et on Wednesday. It might be easy to forget due to its early exit in the ACC Tournament but Notre Dame enters the NCAA Tournament riding a 7-0-1 'over' streak. Meanwhile, Rutgers was brought to an early demise in the Big Ten Tournament with an 'over' result against Iowa, snapping a four-game 'under' streak in the process. Notre Dame certainly 'filled it up' down the stretch, making good on 27+ field goals in six of its final eight games. Despite the pace not being there over the Irish's last two games, they still managed to knock down 27 field goals in each contest, putting up 78 and 80 points against Pitt and Virginia Tech. On the flip side, we've seen the Irish allow 36, 29, 26, 21, 28, 23 and 31 made field goals over their last seven games. The two outliers were 21 and 23 against two weak opponents in Georgia Tech and Pitt. Rutgers should pose a significantly tougher challenge here. The Scarlet Knights haven't posted eye-popping offensive numbers by any means, largely due to a relatively slow pace in most games. They still managed to make good on 27+ field goals in four of their last seven games and I do think this is a game where we see that pace pick up a bit (Notre Dame has yielded opponents 60+ field goal attempts in 10 of their last 12 games). Despite the slow tempo, Rutgers has allowed 26, 27, 23, 23, 18 and 26 made field goals over its last six games with the outlier coming in what amounted to a defensive slog against Penn State - an opponent that certainly attracts that type of contest. Neither team guards the perimeter all that well with Notre Dame allowing 8-of-20 shooting from three-point range away from home and Rutgers yielding 8-of-24 from beyond the arc away from Piscataway. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
03-16-22 | Iona +7 v. Florida | Top | 74-79 | Win | 100 | 58 h 34 m | Show |
NIT First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Iona plus the points over Florida at 9 pm et on Wednesday. Iona is more accustomed to playing in the NCAA Tournament rather than the NIT in recent years but here it is, drawing Florida in the opening round of the NIT on Wednesday. I like the Gaels chances of not only staying inside the pointspread but potentially staging the upset here. Iona checks in having knocked down 31, 27, 23, 29, 29 and 25 field goals over its last six games, falling just a point short against Rider an upset loss as an 11.5-point favorite in the MAAC Tournament. The Gaels may have overlooked Rider in that contest as they simply didn't show up defensively, allowing the Broncs to shoot 29-of-57 from the field. Prior to that they had held six of their last eight opponents to 22 or fewer made field goals, going 6-2 SU over that stretch. We saw Florida get drawn into some up-tempo affairs down the stretch, getting off 60+ field goal attempts in three of its last four games. That's obviously the pace Iona prefers and given where this total sits, that's the type of affair we can anticipate here. Concerning is the fact that the Gators allowed their last five opponents to knock down 29, 27, 30, 28 and 24 field goals, despite the fact that only one of those opponents got off more than 58 FG attempts. Take Iona (10*). | |||||||
03-16-22 | Mavs v. Nets UNDER 221 | 113-111 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the 'under' in the Mavs most recent game - a thrilling 95-92 win in Boston on Sunday afternoon. We also won with the Nets in last night's rout of the Magic in Orlando. Here, we'll stick with the 'under' as Dallas continues its five-game road trip in Brooklyn. The Mavs are absolutely locked-in defensively right now and come into this one off a much-needed couple of days off. Dallas has held each of its last four opponents to 88 or fewer field goal attempts, with the opposition making good on just 36, 36, 41 and 33 field goals over that stretch. In the one game that the opposition did eclipse 40 made field goals, Dallas still allowed just 100 points in a game that totalled only 213 points against Houston. Offensively, you would have to go all the way back to February 2nd to find the last time the Mavs attempted 90+ field goals in a game. Going back to February 27th, they've gotten off 78, 82, 85, 84, 88, 86, 88 and 74 FG attempts. You get the picture. They've also been inconsistent in knocking down those shots, hitting just 39, 27, 40 and 33 field goals over their last four contests. The Nets obviously lit up a bad Magic defense last night, as expected. That was on the road, where they have the services of Kyrie Irving, which of course isn't the case here at home. Brooklyn has gotten off fewer than 90 field goal attempts in seven of its last eight games. It has of course shot the lights out over its last five contests but will face a stiff challenge against the Mavs here. It's the defensive end of the floor where I've been most impressed by the Nets. They enter this game having yielded just 30, 39 and 36 made field goals over their last three games. The pace has certainly been up there over that stretch as they've allowed 93+ FG attempts in two of their last three games. I just don't see the Mavs pushing the tempo the way the Nets recent opponents have. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
03-16-22 | Blue Jackets v. Senators UNDER 6.5 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Columbus and Ottawa at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. We missed with the Senators on Monday night. In retrospect, the 'over' probably should have been an auto-play with Gustavsson starting in goal for Ottawa. Nevertheless, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' as the Sens stay at home to host the Blue Jackets on Wednesday. Columbus is coming off a six-goal outburst against Vegas two nights ago but zooming out a little, it's clear that the Jackets have cooled off offensively following a terrific stretch in February. Over its last nine games, Columbus has averaged 2.9 goals per contest. Still, the 'over' has gone 5-1-1 in the Jackets last seven contests, which affords us a very generous total to work with on Wednesday. Speaking of 'over' results, the Sens have seen each of their last three games go 'over' the total. Here, we'll note that the 'under' has gone 16-4 with the Sens coming off a game that totalled seven goals or more this season, resulting in an average total of just 4.9 goals in that situation. The 'under' is a long-term 28-15 with the Sens playing at home with a total of 6.0 or higher over the last two seasons with an average total of just 5.6 goals scored in that spot. The Blue Jackets, meanwhile, have seen the 'under' cash at a 14-5 clip when playing on the road off consecutive wins over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of just 5.3 goals. We'll likely see Anton Forsberg back between the pipes for the Senators on Wednesday. The opposition has scored three goals or fewer in nine of his last 10 starts with the 'under' cashing in six of those games. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-16-22 | Nuggets v. Wizards UNDER 229 | Top | 127-109 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Washington at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Wizards have seen the 'over' cash in seven straight games but I don't believe that's a sustainable trend. The pace they've been playing at certainly doesn't dictate such a streak. Note that Washington has had a tough enough time just getting shots off lately, attempting 87 or fewer field goals in each of its last eight games. Defensively, the Wizards have certainly been struggling, but are also coming off four straight road games. They're in a more favorable spot here, back home hosting a Nuggets squad playing its ninth game in the last 15 nights and fifth-in-eight, in four different cities no less. Like the Wizards, the Nuggets haven't exactly been forcing the issue offensively, getting off 84 or fewer field goal attempts in five straight games. You would have to go back to March 2nd to find the last time they attempted 90 field goals in a game and they scored just 107 points in Oklahoma City on that night. Aside from a loss against a Raptors squad that has been playing at a furious pace lately, the Nuggets have done a good job of controlling the tempo of their opposition, allowing 88 of fewer FG attempts in four of their last five games. They've yielded opponents just 87 FG attempts per game on the road this season. Note that the Wizards actually got off 90 FG attempts in the first meeting between these two teams this season but could only muster 107 points in a game that totalled just 220 points. We saw a closing total of 216 in that one, so we're being given a considerably higher total to work with here. I'm not convinced it's warranted. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-15-22 | Cleveland State v. Xavier OVER 146.5 | Top | 68-72 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 28 m | Show |
NIT First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland State and Xavier at 9 pm et on Tuesday. I'm anticipating a track meet between Cleveland State and Xavier in NIT action on Tuesday. Cleveland State made an unceremonious early exit in the Horizon League Tournament thanks to a poor shooting effort against Wright State. The Vikings still managed to knock down 25 field goals and score 67 points in that setback. Note that they've made good on 30+ field goals in four of their last eight games with the low-water mark being 21 over that stretch in what turned out to be a lwo-scoring, defensive affair against Oakland. Here, I'm confident we'll see Xavier push the pace, noting that it has gotten off 60+ field goal attempts in five of its last six games, eclipsing the 70 FG mark three times over that stretch. The Musketeers haven't just been pushing the pace, they've been knocking down their shots as well, making good on 33+ field goals in three of their last five games. While Cleveland State has held six straight opponents to 26 or fewer made field goals, that's had more to do with pace than anything else. The Vikings have been nothing special defensively away from home, where they've yielded 26-of-56 shooting and eight made threes per game. Not only that but they've sent opponents to the free throw line 22 times per game away from home this season. Xavier is certainly vulnerable at the defensive end of the floor, allowing 34, 25, 33, 29, 28, 27 and 28 made field goals over its last seven contests. Even in the game where they only allowed 25 made FG's they still gave up 72 points in a loss to UConn. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
03-15-22 | Penguins v. Predators UNDER 6 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Nashville at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. Pittsburgh enters this game having seen the 'over' go 2-0-1 over its last three games while Nashville is fresh off consecutive high-scoring affairs over the weekend that totalled 11 and eight goals. Keep in mind, each of the Penguins last three games were played at home. Here on the road, they've posted a 13-15-1 o/u record this season with an average total of just 5.6 goals scored. Meanwhile, the Preds have seen the 'under' go a perfect 8-0 when playing at home after scoring six or more goals in their previous game over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of just 3.5 goals. When playing at home following a win this season, the Preds have posted a 4-11 o/u mark with an average total of only 5.3 goals scored. Take the under (6*). | |||||||
03-15-22 | Nets -9.5 v. Magic | Top | 150-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Brooklyn minus the points over Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Nets are coming off a SU win but ATS loss against the Knicks on Sunday while the Magic have quietly reeled off four consecutive ATS wins entering Tuesday's matchup in Orlando. I like the way this one sets up for the Nets, however. Note that Brooklyn has been ultra-efficient offensively of late, knocking down 45, 46, 51 and 44 field goals over its last four games despite getting off 90+ field goal attempts only once over that stretch. Orlando has been hanging in there largely due to its opposition struggling in terms of FG%, noting that it has actually yielded 90+ field goal attempts in seven straight and nine of its last 10 games overall. If the pace gets up to that level tonight, there's a good chance we see the Nets 'go off' offensively given the way they've been shooting. On the flip side, Brooklyn limited New York to just 83 FG attempts in Sunday's narrow victory and has held three of its last five opponents to 83 FG attempts or fewer. The Nets last two opponents have made good on just 30 and 39 field goals. Note that the Magic, despite getting off a reasonable 88 FG attempts per game here at home, have only managed to knock down an average of 38 field goals per contest. There is valid concern here that the Nets elect to 'manage' this game given they have a big home date with the Mavericks on deck tomorrow. However, this will be just their second game in the last five nights, and tomorrow's contest will begin a very manageable three-game in six-night homestand, so those concerns can be tempered somewhat. Considering the Magic took the last meeting between these two teams by a 100-93 score in Brooklyn back in mid-December, we'll back a revenge-minded Nets squad laying what I consider to be a reasonable number on Tuesday night. Take Brooklyn (10*). | |||||||
03-15-22 | Missouri State v. Oklahoma OVER 138.5 | 72-89 | Win | 100 | 32 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Missouri State and Oklahoma at 7 pm et on Tuesday. Missouri State is absolutely capable of 'filling it up', even against a Big 12 opponent in Oklahoma on Tuesday. It was an 'up' year for the Missouri Valley Conference as far as I'm concerned with no easy games to be had. The Bears thrived offensively, knocking down 26+ made field goals in each of their last seven games, including 29 or more in four of those contests. However, they did little to slow the opposition, a big reason for their early demise in the MVC Tournament. Missouri State checks in having allowed 33, 26, 24, 22 and 28 made field goals over its last five contests, with the two outliers coming against weaker Valpo and Evansville squads. Only one of the Bears last four opponents failed to get off 60+ field goal attempts. Not surprisingly, we've seen the 'over' cash in six of the Bears last seven games overall. Oklahoma got bogged down offensively in a couple of matchups against Texas Tech - one of the best defensive teams in the country - including in the second round of the Big 12 Tournament. Between those two games, the Sooners did make good on 22, 27, 28 and 26 field goals, despite the fact that they got off 54 or fewer FG attempts in all four of those contests. Here, I'm expecting the Sooners to get involved in a more up-tempo affair with the Bears. I say that as we did see Oklahoma yield 58+ FG attempts in four of its last five games and it comes in having allowed six of its last nine opponents to make good on 25+ field goals. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
03-14-22 | Raptors -4 v. Lakers | 114-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto minus the points over Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Monday. The Raptors have quietly turned things around following a disappointing four-game losing streak, reeling off three straight wins despite running into two hot shooting opponents in Phoenix and Denver over their last two contests. The Raps have done an excellent job of limiting their opponents scoring opportunities lately, yielding just 85, 84, 88 and 78 field goal attempts over their last four games. The Suns and Nuggets managed to knock down 44 and 43 of those attempts over the last two games but I certainly don't anticipate the Lakers reaching those levels here. Los Angeles made good on only 36-of-81 FG attempts in a 140-111 loss in Phoenix last night. While the Lakers have hit 41+ field goals in five of their last six games, the majority of those contests were played at a very fast pace. Los Angeles has gotten off 91+ FG attempts in three of its last four games - a number I don't see it approaching here. The Raptors, meanwhile, have been forcing the issue offensively, getting off 93+ FG attempts in four of their last five games and should be able to find continued success against a Lakers squad that has had no luck or interest in slowing opponents down, yielding 93, 92, 84, 102, 85 and 102 FG attempts over their last six games (one of those 102's came by way of overtime in Houston). The Raptors have knocked down 41, 42 and 48 field goals over their last three games, putting up 119, 117 and 127 points along the way. Take Toronto (8*). | |||||||
03-14-22 | Blazers +14 v. Hawks | Top | 113-122 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Portland plus the points over Atlanta at 7:40 pm et on Monday. We won with the 'over' in the Hawks wild, high-scoring win over the Pacers last night. I won't hesitate to switch gears and fade Atlanta on Monday as it stays home to host the lowly Blazers. Portland snapped its six-game losing streak with a 127-118 win over the Wizards on Saturday. There's reason to be somewhat positive about the Blazers, even with all of their injuries and after their pre-trade deadline fire sale. I say that because they've held 10 of their last 11 opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts and better still, four of their last five opponents to 85 or fewer FG attempts. Two of their last three opponents have knocked down fewer than 40 field goals. Meanwhile, the Hawks have hit 40+ field goals in four straight games. That's with getting off 90+ FG attempts in two of those three contests, however. More concerning is the fact that Atlanta has yielded 52, 46, 43, 47, 40 and 46 made field goals over its last six games. It's not as if the pace has necessarily dictated those high field goal totals either as four of those six opponents attempted fewer than 90 field goals. You would have to go all the way back to January 28th to find the last time an opponent didn't score 100+ points against the Hawks. Also of note is the fact that the Hawks could very well elect to 'manage' this game as they're in the midst of a stretch that will see them play 11 games in 19 nights and as I mentioned on the second of back-to-backs after a fairly taxing contest last night. Take Portland (10*). | |||||||
03-14-22 | Coyotes v. Senators -158 | 5-3 | Loss | -158 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Ottawa over Arizona at 7:35 pm et on Monday. The Coyotes have picked up four of a possible six points through their first three games on this road trip but I look for them to stumble on Monday in Ottawa. After scoring 22 goals over a three-game stretch, the 'Yotes were held to just two in Boston on Saturday. It's worth noting that Arizona hasn't lost consecutive games since February 11th and 19th. It has gone nine games without dropping two in a row - by far its longest such streak of the season. I see it ending here as the Sens stay home off a disappointing 6-3 loss against Chicago on Saturday. Given they entered that game off consecutive wins, I think they may have gotten ahead of themselves after building an early lead against the Blackhawks. I like the spot for the Sens here, noting that they've gone a perfect 5-0 when playing at home after allowing 6+ goals in their previous game over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.8 goals on average in that situation. They're also a solid 16-10 when playing at home off a loss by 2+ goals over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outsoring opponents by an average margin of 0.3 goals in that spot. The Coyotes check in averaging 2.6 goals per game this season but that number drops to 2.1 when coming off a loss. They've been outscored by 1.2 goals on average when following up a loss this season. To make matters worse for the 'Yotes, they'll be without one of their best players in defenseman Jacob Chychrun for an extended period of time due to a lower body injury. Take Ottawa (5*). | |||||||
03-14-22 | Real Madrid v. Mallorca OVER 2.5 | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Mallorca and Real Madrid at 4 pm et on Monday. We were involved in Mallorca's most recent match, cashing with Celta Vigo in a 4-3 thriller (thanks to a last minute penalty). Here, I'll switch gears and back the 'over' as Mallorca hosts Real Madrid, which is off a thrilling victory over Paris-Saint Germain in Champions League action last week. Mallorca is in tough right now, with limited options other than a struggling Sergio Rico at keeper due to injuries and suspensions. Not only that but Mallorca's back line of defense is struggling mightily and will now have to face a Real Madrid squad that is brimming with confidence after Karim Benzema's second half hat trick against PSG. Note that this will be Mallorca's first shot at Real Madrid at home since back in 2019, when it pulled off a 1-0 stunner. Since then, Real has had its way in two meetings in this series, winning 2-0 and 6-1 in the host role. Given its vulnerabilities at the back-end, I'm sure Mallorca is well aware that it will need to find a goal (or two) to have any chance at coming away with a much needed point at least in this match. Sitting just two points clear of relegation, gaining something productive from this match is critical for Mallorca. While Real Madrid could elect to sit back and play for a 1-0 or 2-0 victory here, I think we see a different story unfold. Note that five of the last seven matches between these two squads have produced 'over' 2.5 goals. Take the over (6*). | |||||||
03-13-22 | Ducks v. Islanders -170 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Anaheim at 7:35 pm et on Sunday. The pressure is off and it shows. The Islanders are essentially out of playoff contention but check in playing some of their best hockey of the season, having won back-to-back and three of their last four games overall. The Ducks are at the opposite end of the spectrum, having lost six of their last eight games and in a tough back-to-back spot here after last night's 2-1 shootout loss against the Devils. Note that Anaheim is a woeful 1-18 the last 19 times it has sought revenge for a loss against an opponent by 3+ goals, as is the case here, outscored by 2.2 goals on average in that spot. Worse still, the Ducks are 0-10 when seeking revenge for a loss by 4+ goals against an opponent over the last two seasons, which is the case here after the Isles skated to a 4-0 win in Anaheim last month. New York checks in having allowed just 1.9 goals per game when playing at home for at least a fourth straight game this season (11-game sample size), outscoring opponents by 0.7 goals on average in that spot. While the Isles will turn to a red hot Ilya Sorokin in goal tonight. He has posted a terrific .961 save percentage over his last four starts with New York winning three of those games. Meanwhile, the Ducks will likely be forced to go with a struggling John Gibson after Anthony Stolarz started in last night's shootout loss in New Jersey. Gibson has recorded a .856 save percentage over his last four starts with the Ducks losing three of those four games. Finally, I'll point out that the Isles are as healthy as they've been all season, recently welcoming back both Mat Barzal and Zdeno Chara. Take New York (6*). | |||||||
03-13-22 | Rockets v. Pelicans OVER 228 | 105-130 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and New Orleans at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. Neither of these teams have played a lick of defense lately and I don't see that changing as they meet up on Sunday night in New Orleans. While the Pelicans have a number of key absences to deal with, most notably C.J. McCollum and Brandon Ingram, they still managed to score 120 points in a track meet that totalled 260+ against Charlotte two nights ago and I'm anticipating more of the same against the Rockets on Sunday. As I noted in my analysis of a play on the 'over' in the Rockets overtime win over the Lakers earlier this week, Houston has shown no ability or interest in slowing their opponents down, now having yielded 96, 92, 86, 97, 91, 101 and 88 field goal attempts over their last seven games, allowing 112 or more points in all seven contests. Meanwhile, we've seen the Rockets ramp up their own offensive production lately, knocking down 52 and 41 field goals over their last two games (I realize the first of those two performances was aided by overtime). They've scored 100+ points in seven straight games and are expected to get a boost with the return of Christian Wood on Sunday. The Pelicans were doing a nice job defensively after the All-Star break but that seems like an eternity ago now as they've been lit up for 47+ made field goals in three of their last four games. Fortunately their offense has continued to thrive, knocking down 41+ field goals in seven straight games. New Orleans has put up 100+ points in 12 straight games entering Sunday's contest. We've actually seen all three meetings between these two teams this season stay 'under' the total we're working with here. With that being said, the pace just wasn't there in those three contests but given current form I expect a different story to unfold here. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
03-13-22 | Pacers v. Hawks OVER 236.5 | 128-131 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Atlanta at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. The Pacers are coming off an 'under' result last night while the Hawks have seen the 'under' cash in three straight games. I look for a different story to unfold on Sunday, however. Indiana allowed an undermanned Spurs squad to get off a whopping 102 field goal attempts in last night's 119-108 win. While the Pacers are in a back-to-back spot here, they'll play just two games in the next six nights afterwards so I don't expect them to attempt to 'manage' this game by any means. Note that Indiana has now allowed 91+ field goal attempts in eight of its last nine contests. Each of its last six opponents has poured in 42+ made field goals. Atlanta, meanwhile, comes in having made good on 42, 43 and 43 field goals over its last three games and has put up 110+ points in five consecutive games. There are concerns defensively, however, as the Hawks have allowed 52, 46, 43, 47 and 40 made field goals over their last five contests. They haven't consistently been able to control opponents' tempo, or perhaps haven't been all that interested in doing so. The Pacers are certainly pushing the pace (as usual), getting off 91+ field goal attempts in four of their last five games and making good on 44, 49 and 45 field goals over their last three contests. The most recent meeting between these two teams was played right around the pace we would anticipate on Sunday and it got to 245 total points back on February 8th. Atlanta poured in 52 field goals in that victory and the case could certainly be made for the Pacers being a worse defensive team now, or more disinterested anyway, than they were then. On the flip side, that game started a streak of 13 straight games in which Indiana put up 103+ points. Take the over (6*). | |||||||
03-13-22 | Mavs v. Celtics UNDER 216.5 | 95-92 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Boston at 3:30 pm et on Sunday. The 'under' has cashed in each of the Mavericks last three games and the pace has certainly been there to support that. Dallas has held each of its last three opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts, limiting two of those opponents to exactly 36 made field goals. On the flip side, you would have to go all the way back to February 2nd to find the last time Dallas attempted 90+ field goals in a game. It has made fewer than 40 field goals in two of its last three contests and is just one game removed from making good on only 27 field goals in a 77-point performance against the Knicks, at home no less. The Mavs have done a good job of controlling their opponents' tempo on the road this season, allowing just 39-of-86 shooting on average. The Celtics, meanwhile, saw their most recent game creep 'over' the total against Detroit. The 'over' checks in 3-1 in the Celtics last four games but the pace doesn't necessarily support that trend. Boston has held its last three opponents to 89, 84 and 83 field goal attempts with its last two opponents making good on just 36 and 35 field goals. While the C's do come in having hit 40+ field goals in each of their last four games, they've gotten off 89+ field goals in three of those four contests. Should the pace slow down here, as I expect it to against Dallas, it's likely they'll have a tougher time approaching that 40 made field goal mark. Note that the lone previous meeting between these two teams this season totalled just 211 points and saw a closing total of 210. We're being afforded a higher total this time around. I believe it will prove too high. Take the under (9*). | |||||||
03-13-22 | Rennes v. Olympique Lyonnais OVER 2.5 | 4-2 | Win | 102 | 4 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Lyon and Stade Rennes at 12:05 pm et on Sunday. Lyon is fresh off a stunning 1-0 'away' win over Porto in Europa League action earlier this week. It had to hang on for that critical victory as it was peppered throughout the match but ultimately escaped with a clean sheet. I'm not convinced it will be so fortunate to keep Stade Rennes off the scoreboard on Sunday. Note that Rennes took the most recent meeting between these two sides by a 4-1 score. I certainly expect a revenge-minded Lyon squad to put forth a much better effort here, likely improving on that one-goal performance. But can it keep the Rennes offense at bay? The visitors have put up an impressive 10 goals across their last three Ligue 1 matches, most recently kept silent back on February 11th against mighty PSG. We've seen a couple of interesting trends in this particular series with Rennes going three consecutive matches against Lyon without posting a clean sheet but also managing to be 'first to score' in four of the last five meetings. I'm anticipating plenty of fireworks in this one. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
03-13-22 | Yale v. Princeton OVER 142.5 | 66-64 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Yale and Princeton at 12 noon et on Sunday. I think the betting markets are a little spooked when it comes to the total here after both of these teams produced 'under' results in yesterday's Ivy League semi-final matchups. We're dealing with a considerably lower posted total that we saw in the two regular season meetings, keeping in mind both of those games got into the 150's. Yale didn't need to force the issue yesterday as Penn simply wasn't hitting its shots, making good on just 23-of-58 of its field goal attempts. The Bulldogs have generally been giving up a fairly consistent number of buckets though, yielding 26+ made field goals in five straight games prior to yesterday's contest. That's with a relatively slow pace. Here, we can anticipate Princeton pushing the pace. The Tigers have certainly been 'filling it up' lately, and really all season long. The enter this game having made good on 29+ field goals in seven of their last nine games and have scored 74+ points in five straight contests. An issue, however, is Princeton's inability to slow down opposing offenses, allowing 28, 29, 31 and 32 made field goals over its last four games, yielding 63 or more FG attempts in three straight contests entering Sunday's Championship Game. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
03-12-22 | Lightning -135 v. Oilers | 1-4 | Loss | -135 | 16 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Edmonton at 10:05 pm et on Saturday. The Lightning certainly want to salvage something from their western Canadian road swing but so far, not so good as they fell by a 7-4 score in Winnipeg and 4-1 in Calgary. I do look for them to get back in the win column on Saturday as they head to Edmonton to face the Oilers. Here, we'll note that Tampa Bay has gone 17-3 after being held to one goal or less in its previous game over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.5 goals on average in that spot. The Lightning average 4.2 goals per game while outscoring opponents by 1.6 goals on average when coming off a road loss this season (10-game sample size). The Oilers are 15-12 on home ice this season but have actually been outscored by 0.2 goals on average here in Edmonton. They managed to snap a three-game losing streak with a 4-3 overtime win over Washington last time out but it's worth noting that they caught the Caps in a tough back-to-back spot, not to mention the fact that Washington started struggling goaltender Ilya Samsonov in that one. The Oilers have already announced that Mikko Koskinen will start in goal on Saturday. While that could be considered a positive as he's performed relatively well lately, the Lightning have had his number in two previous games against him, securing 6-3 and 5-2 wins. Things won't get any easier for Tampa Bay on this trip as it will head to Vancouver for a tough back-to-back and three-in-four spot tomorrow. I look for the Lightning to make the most of their opportunity to snap their mini-skid in Edmonton on Saturday. Take Tampa Bay (8*). | |||||||
03-12-22 | Texas A&M Corpus Christi v. Southeastern Louisiana | 73-65 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas A&M-Corpus Christi minus the points over Southeastern Louisiana at 9:30 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams enter the Southland Conference Championship Game playing their best basketball of the season. I simply feel Corpus Christi has been the better all-around team all season and will prove it in this winner-take-all showdown on Saturday night. Note that the Islanders come into this game having allowed 23 or fewer made field goals in seven of their last eight games. They like to slow the pace, which doesn't suit Southeastern Louisiana all that well. Note that the Lions have made good on 26+ field goals in five straight games but they got off 60+ attempts in three of those five contests. Slow it down and I don't anticipate SE Louisiana enjoying nearly as much success here. On the flip side, the Lions have been lit up for 29+ made field goals in eight of their last nine games. Yes, they play at a faster pace so that is to be expected, but perhaps not to the level we've seen. Note that four of the Lions last five opponents got into the 30's in terms of made field goals. They're here thanks to New Orleans having an off night shooting the basketball on Friday, making good on just 25-of-62 attempts. Provided the Islanders can shoot for average on Saturday, as I expect them to do (they shoot 44.4% from the field this season), I'm confident they'll prevail. Take Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (8*). | |||||||
03-12-22 | Bucks v. Warriors +1.5 | 109-122 | Win | 100 | 13 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State plus the points over Milwaukee at 8:40 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams come in playing well but it's the Bucks that have been doing it for a longer period, securing six straight wins heading into this clash. The Warriors, meanwhile, righted the ship with consecutive wins over the Clippers and Nuggets this week. I like Golden State to keep it going on Saturday. The Warriors are absolutely locked-in defensively right now. Over their last two games they held L.A. and Denver to a combined 68-for-177 (38.4%) shooting. Meanwhile, despite missing a number of key contributors on any given night, their offense has thrived, knocking down 40+ field goals and scoring 112+ points in six straight games. The Bucks defense is vulnerable right now, having allowed 44, 47, 50, 42 and 43 made field goals over their last five games. In fact, each of their last four opponents have shot 50% or better from the field. While the Milwaukee offense continues to hum along, shooting 50% or better in three straight contests heading into this showdown, I'm anticipating some regression against a revenge-minded Warriors squad here (Milwaukee took the first meeting by 19 points at home in January). Take Golden State (8*). | |||||||
03-12-22 | Louisiana Tech v. UAB OVER 135 | Top | 73-82 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
C-USA Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Louisiana Tech and UAB at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. We saw an exceptionally low-scoring game involving Louisiana Tech yesterday as the Bulldogs defeated North Texas 42-36 in one of the uglier college basketball games you'll ever see. I expect a much different story to unfold on Saturday as the Bulldogs challenge the UAB Blazers in the C-USA Championship Game. Note that the two regular season matchups between these two teams totalled 159 and 161 points. They just faced one another last week and we saw a closing total of 147, so we're dealing with a major adjustment to that number here. I'm not sure it's warranted. Louisiana Tech's three previous opponents in this tournament simply haven't been able to knock down their shots, with only Marshall managing to hit more than 21 field goals (the Thundering Herd made 25 in a 77-67 loss). It's not as if the Bulldogs have been a dominant defensive team all season though, noting that they yield 25-of-59 shooting including 8-of-24 from beyond the arc away from home this season. The Blazers offer a much different challenge compared to what the Bulldogs have faced so far in this tournament. UAB checks in having knocked down 32, 32, 27 and 31 field goals over its last four games, scoring 80+ points in each of those contests. I am confident that Louisiana Tech can be along for the ride here, however, noting that the Blazers have proven vulnerable defensively, yielding 25, 22, 29, 23 and 32 made field goals over their last five contests (I realize the latter result involved three overtime periods against Middle Tennessee State yesterday). UAB generally likes to push the pace, averaging 62 field goal attempts per game away from home this season and I do believe that will open the door for the Bulldogs offense here, noting that they hit 53 field goals across the two regular season meetings, even reaching 76 points in the first matchup despite getting off only 52 attempts. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
03-12-22 | Wolves v. Heat UNDER 227 | Top | 113-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Miami at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. The pace has fallen off considerably in games involving the T'Wolves lately so not surprisingly, we've seen the 'under' go 2-0-1 over their last three games. In its last five contests, Minnesota has yielded opponents 86, 85, 83, 87 and 86 field goal attempts. None of those opponents made more than 40 of their attempts with three reaching 37 or less. It's unlikely we'll see the Heat show much interest in pushing the pace here, noting that they'll be playing their seventh game in the last 11 nights, and like the T'Wolves, will be on the second of back-to-backs. We did see Miami's game last night go 'over' the total but the pace wasn't necessarily there as the Heat held the Cavs to just 35-of-79 shooting, but shot lights out themselves. The 'under' has cashed in three of Miami's last five games overall. Note that we saw a closing total of just 212.5 in the first meeting between these two teams back in November. That game totalled just 214 points. I believe tonight's adjustment to the total will prove too much. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-12-22 | Cavs v. Bulls UNDER 223.5 | Top | 91-101 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
NBA Central Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. The most recent meeting between these two teams reached 221 total points back in January and as a result we're dealing with a total right around that number for Saturday's third meeting of the season. Keep in mind, in that most recent matchup the two teams shot the lights out (CLE shot 52% and CHI shot 55%). I don't expect anything of that sort on Saturday. The Cavs have seen the 'over' cash in four of their last six games, even if the pace hasn't necessarily been there. Cleveland had a tough enough time just getting shots off in Miami last night, attempting just 79 field goals, but that game ultimately found its way 'over' the low total. Note that the Cavs have attempted 85 or fewer field goals in seven of their last eight games and face a Bulls squad that has been doing a nice job of limiting their opponents scoring opportunities lately, holding four of their last five opponents to 84 or fewer FG attempts. In fact, the Bulls have been one of the best 'under' bets in the league lately, with the 'under' going 8-2 over their last 10 contests. Note that Chicago has attempted 88 or fewer field goals in four of its last five games. Cleveland has limited Chicago to 84 and 86 FG attempts in two previous meetings this season. On the flip side, the Cavs got off just 80 and 77 FG attempts in those two contests. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-12-22 | San Diego State -2 v. Boise State | Top | 52-53 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on San Diego State minus the points over Boise State at 6 pm et on Saturday. The Aztecs are hoping it will be 'third time's a charm' against Boise State after dropping both regular season meetings by a combined six points. I like their chances of exacting revenge at the best possible time in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game on Saturday. San Diego State is absolutely locked-in defensively right now, having allowed 23 or fewer made field goals in nine straight games heading into this one. While saying that the Aztecs have made good on 20+ field goals in 12 straight games doesn't sound like much, it is a major positive when you consider the low pace they play at (they attempted fewer than 50 field goals in half of those contests). Boise State isn't playing at the same level defensively as San Diego State, having yielded 26, 26, 28, 26 and 23 made field goals over its last five games. After shooting 50% or better from the field in four straight games, the Broncos cooled off to knock down just 23-of-49 shots in their semi-final victory over Wyoming. Note that in the two regular season matchups between the Aztecs and Broncos it was San Diego State that held a 38-31 edge in terms of field goals made. Boise State, however, got to the free throw line 21 more times across the two games, which ultimately proved to be the difference on both occasions. It's difficult to project that happening again here, noting that Boise State averages just two more FT attempts per game than San Diego State this season. Take San Diego State (10*). | |||||||
03-12-22 | Pennsylvania v. Yale OVER 144.5 | Top | 61-67 | Loss | -104 | 8 h 53 m | Show |
Ivy League Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Penn and Yale at 2 pm et on Saturday. Penn enters this Ivy League semi-final matchup riding a five-game 'over' streak and I look for that to continue against Yale on Saturday. The Quakers were one of the worst defensive teams in the country down the stretch, allowing 28, 30, 30, 28 and 37 made field goals over their last five games. They can't help but continue to push the pace though, as they continue to 'pour it in', knocking down 28, 29, 33, 26 and 31 field goals over their last five games and enter this contest having scored 70+ points in nine straight games - a run that started with a 76-point performance against Yale. The Bulldogs took their share of lumps down the stretch, unable to consistently slow down the opposition, allowing three of their last five opponents to get off 60+ field goal attempts. Their offensive numbers certainly don't pop off the page, but they did manage to make good on 24 or more field goals in five of their last six games, an encouraging sign given that they don't play at all that quick of a pace. Note that we have a potential floor to work with as far as these two offenses go, noting that Yale shot 23-of-59 from the field including just 3-of-19 from beyond the arc in the first meeting between these two teams this season, yet that game still got to 144 total points. The next meeting was higher-scoring as Yale won by an 81-72 score. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
03-11-22 | Wizards +4.5 v. Lakers | Top | 109-122 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 10 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Friday. The Wizards opened their current road trip with a six-point loss against the Clippers two nights ago. They're still a solid 5-4 ATS over their last nine games with their four ATS losses over that stretch coming by a combined seven points. We've seen Washington make a concerted effort, at least seemingly, to slow down opposing offenses recently, limiting nine of its last 12 opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. The Wizards last two opponents have quite simply shot the lights out, something I don't anticipate the Lakers doing tonight. Offensively, the Wiz have been 'filling it up', knocking down 41, 46, 45 and 41 field goals over their last four games, despite getting off 87 or fewer field goal attempts in all four of those contests. In fact, they've knocked down 40+ field goals in nine of their last 11 games. Here, the Wiz should be afforded plenty of scoring opportunities against a non-existent Lakers defense. Los Angeles has shown no ability (or interest) to slow down opposing offenses, yielding 90+ field goal attempts in three of its last four games (it allows an average of 91 FG attempts per game at home this season). Each of the Lakers last seven opponents have made good on at least 41 field goal attempts, with five of them knocking down 46+. While the Lakers have been doing a solid job of keeping pace, hitting 40+ field goals in four straight games, I'm not convinced the pace will be there for them to reach that number tonight. Note that the Wizards allow an average of 40-of-88 shooting on the road this season. Take Washington (10*). | |||||||
03-11-22 | Capitals v. Canucks UNDER 6.5 | 4-3 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Vancouver at 10:05 pm et on Friday. The Canucks have now seen the 'over' cash in nine straight games entering Friday's matchup with the Capitals. We're always looking for a 'catalyst for change' when we're looking to go against a streak like that and I believe we have it here with Vancouver enjoying its first three-day break between games since the streak began on February 17th. Washington has seen its last three games go 'over' the total although Wednesday's contest in Edmonton just as easily could have stayed 'under' were it not for a game-tying goal from T.J. Oshie in the closing seconds of the third period. The Caps have allowed eight goals in their first two games on this trip but still give up just 2.7 goals per game on the road this season. Despite a string of high-scoring games, Canucks home games are still averaging only 5.5 total goals this season. They allow just 2.6 goals per game on home ice this season and better still, that average drops to 2.3 when playing consecutive home games, as is the case here. The 'under' is 15-5 with Vancouver playing at home off a home win in which it scored 4+ goals over the last three seasons with that situation totalling an average of just 5.3 goals. Finally, I'll note that this game features two of the league's more underrated starting goaltenders in Vitek Vanecek and Thatcher Demko. Vanecek owns a .941 save percentage over his last four starts (he didn't start Wednesday's 4-3 loss in Edmonton). Demko hasn't exactly been at his best lately but like the rest of the team, will be making his first start on three or more days' rest since February 12th-17th. The Canucks netminder has posted a terrific .930 save percentage in 19 home starts this season with the 'under' going 11-7-1. Take the under (6*). | |||||||
03-11-22 | Richmond v. VCU -2.5 | Top | 75-64 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
Atlantic-10 Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on VCU minus the points over Richmond at 8:30 pm et on Friday. VCU will be trying to accomplish the difficult task of defeating the same team three times in one season as it takes on Richmond in A-10 quarter-final action on Friday. I like the Rams chances. Richmond comes off a narrow 64-59 win over Rhode Island yesterday. The Spiders have picked a bad time to go into a bit of a shooting slump. They've knocked down 23, 20, 25 and 18 field goals over their last four contests, going 2-2 SU and 0-4 ATS over that stretch. They had a tough enough time just getting shots off last night, attempting just 47 field goals in their victory over RI. Here, things won't get any easier against a VCU squad that has absolutely locked down the opposition defensively this season and particularly down the stretch. The Rams enter this contest having yielded 23 or fewer made field goals in eight of their last nine games. Over their final three regular season games they gave up only 21, 18 and 21 made field goals. Meanwhile, the VCU offense has been humming along, making good on 24+ field goals in nine straight games including 26+ in seven of those contests. That's not all that impressive on the face of it but when you consider that most of those games were played at a relatively slow pace (with FG attempts in the 50-55 range for the most part) you get a better sense of how efficient the Rams offense has been. Here, I'm expecting a slightly faster pace, noting that the Rams got off 55 and 61 FG attempts in two regular season meetings with the Spiders, knocking down 28 of of those attempts in both games. Richmond shot just 42-of-117 from the field in those two regular season matchups. Richmond only managed to stay close in their home meeting and that was thanks to a wide 21-7 disparity in terms of free throw attempts, something that's unlikely to happen here. Take VCU (10*). | |||||||
03-11-22 | Quinnipiac v. St. Peter's -6.5 | Top | 52-64 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
MAAC Game of the Year. My selection is on St. Peter's minus the points over Quinnipiac at 8:30 pm et on Friday. I really like the way this one sets up for St. Peter's as it takes on Quinnipiac in MAAC Tournament semi-final action on Friday. The Peacocks are as locked-in defensively as any team in the conference and perhaps the entire country right now (relatively speaking, of course). Going back to a February 4th matchup against the same Quinnipiac squad they'll face tonight, they've allowed 22 or fewer made field goals in nine of their last 11 games. Over their last four contests they've yielded just 13, 17, 15 and 19 made field goals. All the while they've been absolutely frustrating opposing offenses by slowing the pace. While Quinnipiac has knocked down 26+ field goals in three of its last four games, that's had a lot to do with playing at a reasonably fast pace, something we're not likely to see in this particular matchup. Note that the Bobcats shot a miserable 42-of-121 in two regular season matchups between these two teams - both went St. Peter's way by at least nine points. On the flip side, Quinnipiac has done little to slow opposing offenses lately, allowing 28, 27, 28, 29, 23 and 26 made field goals over its last six games. St. Peter's - despite playing at a snail's pace - has made good on 20+ field goals in eight straight games and 25+ in six of those eight contests. While the Peacocks are by no means a perimeter-based team offensively, they did knock down 17 three-pointers in two regular season meetings with the Bobcats. That's not all that surprising considering Quinnipiac yields nine made threes per game this season. Take St. Peter's (10*). | |||||||
03-11-22 | Wolves -7.5 v. Magic | 110-118 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Friday. I'm not sure the T'Wolves are getting nearly the respect they deserve right now. They've reeled off six straight wins, incredibly scoring 124+ points in all six of those games. They've made good on 45+ field goals in five of those six contests, despite the majority of them being played at a reasonably slow pace. Meanwhile, Minnesota's defense continues to shine as well, holding four straight opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts with three of those four opponents knocking down 37 or less and it draws another favorable matchup here. Speaking of favorable matchups - the Magic have benefited from facing the Suns without Chris Paul and Devin Booker and the Pelicans without Brandon Ingram over their last two games. The T'Wolves aren't at full strength but they're getting healthier and again, it hasn't really mattered who they've trotted out on the floor lately, they've found success. Lost in Orlando's recent 4-3 SU and 5-2 ATS surge is the fact that it continues to do little to slow opposing offenses down, yielding 90+ FG attempts in five straight and seven of its last eight games. It has been fortunate that the opposition simply hasn't taken advantage of its opportunities on most nights. I expect a different story to unfold here as a revenge-minded T'Wolves squad hangs another crooked number on the board in a convincing win. Take Minnesota (8*). | |||||||
03-11-22 | Miami-FL v. Duke OVER 147.5 | 76-80 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Duke at 7 pm et on Friday. This one has all the makings of a track meet as Duke heads into this game riding a four-game 'over' streak while Miami has shot a blistering 50%+ from the field in five consecutive games. The Hurricanes are absolutely locked-in offensively right now, making good on 28+ field goals in eight straight games, albeit boosted by overtime yesterday against Boston College. On the flip side, the Canes aren't really slowing anyone down, allowing 28+ made field goals in three of their last four games and now run into a juggernaut in the Blue Devils. Duke has knocked down 35, 32, 34 and 32 field goals over its last four games, scoring more than 80 points in all four contests. Like Miami, though, Duke has done little to slow opponents down, yielding 27+ made field goals in five of its last seven games. The Blue Devils last two opponents have gotten off 68 and 67 FG attempts. In the lone regular season matchup between these two teams Miami pulled off a stunning 76-74 upset win at Cameron Indoor. That game saw 150 total points despite the two teams hitting only 10 three-pointers (they average 15 per game combined this season) and combining for only 28 free throw attempts (they average 34 FT attempts per game combined). Take the over (8*). | |||||||
03-11-22 | Creighton v. Providence -3 | 85-58 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Providence minus the points over Creighton at 6:30 pm et on Friday. Providence narrowly escaped with a four-point win over Butler last night but I expect it to 'get right' and move on with a more convincing win over Creighton on Friday. The Friars are locked-in defensively right now, allowing just 18, 23 and 22 made field goals over their last three games. While Creighton obviously poses a challenge, I expect Providence to be up for it, noting that it held the Blue Jays to just 18 made field goals including only five from beyond the arc in a 72-51 win in the lone regular season matchup between the two teams. Offensively, we saw the Friars get bogged down against a Butler team that can be very frustrating to play against last night, knocking down only 20 field goals on 54 attempts but it was still enough to get into the 60's and secure the win. Here, I think the Friars will prefer the pace the Blue Jays play at, noting that Creighton has allowed opponents to get off 64+ field goal attempts in six of its last nine games. The Blue Jays have yielded 35, 33, 28, 27, 27 and 23 made field goals over their last six games. Creighton's offense has been rather uneven lately, hitting just 18, 27, 21 and 28 field goals over its last four contests. I'm just not sure it will get enough opportunities to keep within arm's reach here, noting that Providence allows just 24 made field goals and only six from beyond the arc per game away from home this season. Take Providence (8*). | |||||||
03-11-22 | Creighton v. Providence OVER 130.5 | Top | 85-58 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
Big East Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Creighton and Providence at 6:30 pm et on Friday. Creighton enters this game on the heels of four straight 'under' results - a streak that started with a 72-51 road loss against Providence. That low-scoring recent matchup is serving to give us a lower posted total for this rematch. I believe it will prove too low. Note that Creighton made good on only 18 field goals in that contest, including just four from beyond the arc. While Providence can obviously be tough to break down defensively, the Blue Jays do check in averaging 26 made field goals including seven from beyond the arc per game away from home this season. There's reason to believe they can show at least some improvement offensively in this one. Defensively, it's another matter entirely. The Blue Jays have had no success slowing opposing offenses. Going back to February 20th, they've yielded 35, 33, 28, 27, 27 and 23 made field goals over their last six games. Providence shot 28-of-59 against them four games back. Here, the Friars check in off a poor offensive showing against a frustrating Butler squad last night, making good on only 20 field goals but still managing to score 65 points in a four-point victory. Prior to that, the Friars had hit at least 25 field goals in six straight games, scoring 70+ points in all six of those contests. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
03-11-22 | St Etienne v. Lille OSC OVER 2 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -122 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
Ligue 1 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Lille and St-Etienne at 3 pm et on Friday. Lille has been involved in its share of low-scoring contests lately but did bust out with a 4-0 victory over Clermont last time out and that's certainly something it can build on here as it hosts St-Etienne with eyes on one of the coveted top-five spots in the Ligue 1 table. Of course, St-Etienne is in a different battle entirely as it tries to avoid relegation, currently sitting just one point clear of 18th-place Lorient. St-Etienne is coming off a 1-0 victory over Metz last weekend in a match that wasn't really as close as the final score indicated. The margin likely could have been 3-4 goals were it not for a lack of execution or simply bad luck as St-Etienne carried the play and fired 13 shots at the Metz goal with five of them reaching target (not to mention a couple of posts). Concerning for St-Etienne here is the absence of a number of key defenders in a match it was going to have its hands full in regardless with Lille striker Jonathan David snapping his goal drought last time out and poised to build from that here. With both teams showing encouraging signs in their most recent match, and both desperate for points, albeit for much different reasons, I look for St-Etienne's trend of both teams scoring (four of its last five) and 'over' 2.5 total goals being scored (also four of its last five) to continue on Friday. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
03-10-22 | Washington v. USC OVER 141.5 | Top | 61-65 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
Pac-12 Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and USC at 11:30 pm et on Thursday. Washington enters this game having seen the 'over' cash in five of its last six and 11 of its last 13 games overall. USC, meanwhile, has posted a 3-1 o/u record over its last four games. Washington didn't do much to stop the Utah offense in last night Pac-12 Tournament opener, but prevailed thanks to its own offense pouring in 82 points on 30 made field goals. The Huskies have now allowed 26 or more made field goals in nine of their last 11 games, including back on February 17th when they allowed the same USC squad they'll face tonight knock down 30-of-62 attempts from the field in a 79-69 loss. There was really nothing special that got that contest 'over' the total. In fact, it was an off night for the Washington offense as they could only make good on 22-of-60 field goal attempts. The Huskies were mired in a scoring slump at that time - a stretch that saw them knock down just 21, 22 and 18 field goals in consecutive games. Here, Washington enters having hit 25 or more field goals in six straight games and 32 and 30 in its last two contests. USC has been hot as well, knocking down 33, 26, 27 and 25 field goals over its last four games. The pace didn't necessarily dictate all that high-scoring of performances over its last few games but here I suspect we'll have to combatants willing to go up and down the floor. Neither has shown any consistent ability or interest in slowing down their opponents tempo. While we are dealing with a higher posted total than we saw for the first meeting this season, I'm not convinced enough of an adjustment has been made. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
03-10-22 | Sharks v. Kings OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
NHL Pacific Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between San Jose and Los Angeles at 10:35 pm et on Thursday. I love the way this one sets up as a high-scoring game in Los Angeles on Thursday. The Sharks have been held to a grand total of three goals over their last three games. That's notable as that has happened three times previous this season and on those three occasions, in their next game they've scored 5, 6 and 4 goals with those three contests totalling 8, 9 and 9 goals. Here, San Jose catches Los Angeles back home after an eastern road swing. Note that the Kings have actually been a weaker defensive team at home than on the road this season, allowing 3.0 goals per game here in Los Angeles. There's a good chance we'll see Jonathan Quick in goal for the Kings after Cal Petersen started the last two games. Quick has been awful lately, posting a .876 save percentage over his last four starts with the 'over' cashing at a 3-1 clip along the way. Meanwhile, Petersen owns a less than impressive .902 save percentage in 11 home starts with the 'over' cashing at a 7-4 clip. The Sharks have already announced they'll give Zach Sawchenko his second straight start. He held up alright against the Ducks last time out but is likely to get peppered here, noting that the Kings average just shy of 37 shots per game on home ice this season. Here, we'll note that San Jose has allowed a ridiculous 5.4 goals per game with an average total of 8.3 goals when coming off a loss against a division opponent this season, as is the case here. The 'over' has cashed seven of eight times that situation has come up. The 'over' is also 9-2 with San Jose coming off three straight games in which it scored two goals or less over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 7.9 goals in that spot. Take the over (10*). |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ricky Tran | $756 |
ProSportsPicks | $632 |
Joseph D'Amico | $510 |
Joey Tron | $450 |
Tom Macrina | $399 |
Nick Parsons | $344 |
Sean Murphy | $306 |
Jack Jones | $303 |
William Burns | $233 |
Dan Kaiser | $220 |