Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-27-22 | UL-Lafayette v. Southern Miss | Top | 24-39 | Loss | -110 | 82 h 32 m | Show |
Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Louisiana minus the points over Southern Miss at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. Louisiana is absolutely playing its best football of the season right now and I think Southern Miss is ripe for the picking off consecutive wins - matching its longest winning streak of the season. The Ragin' Cajuns were overvalued early in the season, there's no question about that. They were favored by 11.5 and 9.5 points in their first two road games against Rice and Louisiana-Monroe and lost both contests outright. They followed up those two road defeats with another narrow home loss against South Alabama. The turnaround started two weeks ago, when the Ragin' Cajuns went on the road and upset Marshall by double-digits (as a double-digit underdog). From there, Louisiana routed Arkansas State 38-18 on Saturday. An injury to QB Chandler Fields has actually settled the situation under center with Ben Wooldridge taking over full-time. Keep in mind, the Ragin' Cajuns had been going with a two-man QB rotation, to mixed results. Suddenly Wooldridge has thrown for 546 yards, seven touchdowns and no interceptions over the last two games. Over its last six quarters of action, Louisiana has had a 16-minute stretch where it put together four scoring drives against Marshall and scored four offensive touchdowns in a 13-minute stretch against Arkansas State. Meanwhile, the Ragin' Cajuns defense, which was poised to be one of the best units in the Sun Belt Conference entering the season but got off to a sluggish start, has also come around. Louisiana has completely stamped out opposing passing games over the last month, yielding just 61-of-121 passing. The Ragin' Cajuns defense, which has forced 17 turnovers this season, has to be frothing at the mouth at the thought of facing a Southern Miss offense that has coughed the football up nine times over the last three games. The Golden Eagles offense continues to struggle, even though the team has won consecutive games. They scored exactly 20 points in each of those victories. QB Zach Wilcke has struggled now that there's plenty of tape out there on him - he's thrown more than one touchdown pass only once this season while tossing seven interceptions over the last three games. Unlike Louisiana QB Wooldridge, Wilcke is fairly limited in terms of his running ability. RB Frank Gore Jr. is terrific but should the Golden Eagles fall behind as I expect here, it could be tough sledding for the dynamic back due to game script alone. Here, we'll note that Louisiana is a long-term 65-43 ATS when playing on the road from October on. Take Louisiana (10*). | |||||||
10-27-22 | Canadiens v. Sabres UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 105 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Montreal and Buffalo at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. Last season, we saw three of four meetings between these two teams stay 'under' 6.5 total goals and I expect a similar outcome on Thursday as the Canadiens and Sabres match up for the first time this season. Montreal has struggled to find the back of the net with any consistency this season, scoring 4, 0, 1, 3, 6, 2 and 1 goal through its first seven contests. The good news is, the Habs have held six of their seven opponents to three goals or less. It's been 'feast-or-famine' for the Sabres offensively. They piled up 15 goals in a three-game swing through western Canada last week but outside of that have scored just eight goals in their other three contests. After allowing five goals in a blowout loss in Seattle two nights ago, I'm confident we'll see the Sabres tighten things up here. They've held four of their six opponents to three goals or less and three of those opponents to two goals or fewer. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-26-22 | Rockets v. Jazz OVER 232 | 101-109 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Utah at 9:10 pm et on Wednesday. These two teams just met two nights ago in Houston with the Rockets pulling off the minor upset in a 114-108 victory, cruising comfortably 'under' the total. I expect a different story to unfold from a totals perspective on Wednesday, however. That was a slow-paced game for Houston - relatively speaking - as it got off just 90 field goal attempts marking a season-low. Yet the Rockets still scored 114 points. I'm confident we'll see the pace tick up here. Houston opponents have been 'filling it up' in the early going this season, making good on 45, 45, 48 and 44 field goals through four games. Monday's game marked the first time this season Utah held an opponent to fewer than 40 made field goals, but again, it still allowed 114 points. The Jazz have hoisted up 111 (aided by overtime), 98 and 93 FG attempts over their last three games. Even in their season-opener when they got off just 83 FG attempts, they still scored 123 points in a rout of the Nuggets. In fact, Utah has made good on 42+ field goals in all four games this season. While Monday's contest between these two teams stayed 'under' the total, we're dealing with a lower total this time around and keep in mind, we're just one matchup removed from a game that produced 259 points between these two last March. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
10-26-22 | Rockets v. Jazz -5.5 | Top | 101-109 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Utah minus the points over Houston at 9:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Rockets got the better of the Jazz by a 114-108 score in Houston two nights ago but I look for Utah to answer right back on Wednesday back in Salt Lake City. Despite dropping that contest, the Jazz continued their streak of hot shooting to open the campaign, knocking down 44 field goals - their fourth straight game hitting 42+ field goals. Having hoisted up 111 (aided by overtime), 98 and 93 field goal attempts over their last three contests, I'm confident the Jazz can overwhelm a weak Rockets defense here. Even in Monday's win, Houston still allowed Utah to get off 93 FG attempts, as mentioned. The Rockets have now yielded their first four opponents' 45, 45, 48 and 43 made field goals. On the flip side, Houston has knocked down just 36 and 38 field goals over its last two games. Even with a number of new faces in the lineup, the Jazz are clearly comfortable operating in an extremely fast-paced environment. Despite Monday's victory, I think the Rockets are still figuring things out with their youthful roster. Here, we'll note that the Rockets are just 13-24 ATS in their last 37 games as an underdog priced between +3.5 and +9.5 points, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 9.4 points in that situation. Take Utah (10*). | |||||||
10-26-22 | Nets v. Bucks UNDER 233.5 | 99-110 | Win | 100 | 22 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Brooklyn and Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. We missed with the 'under' in the Nets most recent game - a wild, 134-124 loss in Memphis two nights ago. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as I don't believe the pace Brooklyn, or Milwaukee for that matter, has been playing at warrants such a high posted total. Note that Brooklyn has hoisted up just 89, 80 and 87 field goal attempts through its first three games. It quite simply shot the lights out against the Grizzlies on Monday - something I don't expect it to do again here, noting that the Bucks have only played two games, but have appeared to be in midseason form defensively, allowing just 36 made field goals in each contest. Like the Nets, the Bucks haven't exactly been pushing the pace at every opportunity. Albeit with a small sample size, they've gotten off just 84 and 85 FG attempts in their first two games but like the Nets, did shoot the lights out in their most recent contest, that coming against the lowly Rockets. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
10-26-22 | 76ers v. Raptors UNDER 215.5 | Top | 109-119 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Toronto at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. Few teams have been as locked-in defensively as the Raptors in the early going this season. They check in having held their first four opponents to 77, 80, 76 and 83 field goal attempts and have yet to allow more than 38 made field goals in any of those contests. Not surprisingly, the 'under' has cashed in three of their four games to date. Offensively, it's been a bit of a struggle. Toronto has topped out at 41 made field goals and that came in a game where it scored just 105 points in a loss in Brooklyn. The 76ers have struggled offensively out of the gate as well, getting off no more than 84 field goal attempts in any of their four contests. They shot exceptionally well in their opener against the Celtics but it came at the expense of their defense in a 126-117 loss (we won with the Celtics in that game). Only one of Philadelphia's four opponents has reached 90 FG attempts and that was Indiana last time out, scoring just 106 points in that game. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-25-22 | Golden Knights v. Sharks UNDER 6.5 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 26 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Vegas and San Jose at 10:35 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'under' in the Sharks shutout victory over the Flyers on Sunday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as they return home to host the Golden Knights on Tuesday. Vegas is in a back-to-back spot after defeating the Maple Leafs by a 3-1 score on home ice last night. The Knights are off to a terrific start to the season and it's had a lot to do with their defensive play. The 'under' checks in 3-0-1 in their last four games as they've scored 2, 5, 2 and 3 goals over that stretch. Vegas has allowed only 3, 0, 2, 3, 2, 3 and 1 goal in its first seven contests this season and now draws an offensively-challenged Sharks squad that has yet to top the three-goal mark this season, reaching that number only twice in eight games. The good news for San Jose is that it has tightened things up defensively, yielding just four goals in its last three games combined. Note that 11 of the last 15 meetings in this series have stayed 'under' 6.5 total goals. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-25-22 | Warriors v. Suns -2.5 | 105-134 | Win | 100 | 14 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Golden State at 10 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams enter Tuesday's showdown sporting 2-1 records, although they've looked very different in doing so. Hidden in the Warriors positive start has been their poor defensive play. They've allowed two of their three opponents to get off 93+ field goal attempts with all three of the teams they've faced having knocked down 40+ field goals. In the one game where they did limit the Nuggets to only 86 field goal attempts, they still allowed a whopping 128 points in a losing effort. The Suns, meanwhile, are in midseason form defensively. They've held their first three opponents to just 75, 82 and 82 FG attempts, allowing 36 or fewer made field goals in all three contests. On the flip side, Phoenix has knocked down 40, 43 and 43 field goals itself. Despite getting little offensive production from DeAndre Ayton and Chris Paul, the Suns still scored 112 points in a 17-point win over the full-strength Clippers last time out. Take Phoenix (8*). | |||||||
10-25-22 | Panthers v. Blackhawks UNDER 7 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Florida and Chicago at 8:35 pm et on Tuesday. This is the highest total on Tuesday's NHL board - in fact, it's about as high as an NHL total gets right now. I believe it will prove too high. The Panthers have allowed 1, 3, 5, 3, 3 and 2 goals through six games this season. That's fine. It's been the Florida offense that has struggled to get going or at least match the high expectations set for it entering the campaign, scoring 3, 4, 3, 4, 2 and 3 goals to date. Meanwhile, the Blackhawks have far-exceeded expectations offensively, particularly of late, scoring 14 goals in their last three contests. I don't see that continuing here. As I mentioned, the Panthers have been fairly stingy defensively save for one game in Boston and that was a difficult spot as they were at the tail-end of a three-game in five-night road trip. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
10-25-22 | Clippers v. Thunder +9.5 | 94-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Los Angeles at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. Yes, the Thunder are missing two of their best players in Josh Giddey and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander but it's not as if the Clippers are setting the world on fire in the early going this season, and they have their own key absence to deal with in Paul George. Oklahoma City enters this contest still winless on the campaign at 0-3 although all three games have been relatively close (decided by 10 points or less). Over their last two games, the Thunder held the Nuggets and T'Wolves - two high-powered offensive teams - to just 85 and 88 field goal attempts, respectively. Unfortunately both of those opponents quite simply shot the lights out. I don't anticipate the Clippers doing the same here. Note that Los Angeles has gotten off 82 or fewer field goal attempts in all three games, making good on just 37, 41 and 36 of those shots. The Thunder have afforded themselves far more opportunities at the very least, hoisting up 99, 94 and 94 FG attempts. In this early stage of the season, the Clippers haven't exactly been locking down the opposition, yielding their first three opponents 94, 85 and 93 FG attempts. Noting that these two teams have split their last four meetings with three of those four contests being decided by five points or less, I'll grab the points with the home side on Tuesday. Take Oklahoma City (8*). | |||||||
10-25-22 | Pistons v. Wizards UNDER 223 | 99-120 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Washington at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. The 'over' has cashed in each of the Pistons first three games this season but I look for a different story to unfold on Tuesday in Washington. Both of these teams are coming off losses where the opposition stuffed the boxscore with Detroit allowing 124 points in Indiana and Washington yielding 117 points in Cleveland. The Pistons have knocked down 40 or fewer field goals in all three games despite getting off 90+ attempts in each contest. Noting that Washington has played at a relatively slow pace, hoisting up 91, 80 and 87 field goal attempts through three games this season, there's reason to believe Detroit's scoring opportunities could be even more limited here. After yielding a whopping 103 FG attempts to the Pacers last time out, I'm confident we'll see the Pistons try to 'ugly this one up' in an effort to salvage something from this three-game road trip. Note that the 'under' has cashed in five of the last seven meetings in this series while the 'under' is also 55-35 in the Pistons last 90 road games following consecutive road losses, as is the case here. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
10-24-22 | Nuggets v. Blazers UNDER 227.5 | Top | 110-135 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
Northwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are content to play at a relatively slow pace, noting that the Nuggets have gotten off 83, 86 and 85 field goal attempts in their first three games while the Blazers are in a similar boat, attempting 88, 82 and 84 field goals in their first three contests. We did see Denver look somewhat vulnerable defensively on Saturday against Oklahoma City (we won with the Thunder plus the points in that game) but that was in a tough back-to-back and three-in-four spot off an exhausting 128-123 road win over the Warriors the night previous. Prior to that, the Nuggets had held the opposition to 83 and 88 field goal attempts in their first two contests. Denver's first three opponents have shot exceptionally well from the field, with all three making good on exactly 42 field goals. I don't think the Nuggets face the same challenge here, however, as the Blazers are still finding their way offensively, knocking down 39, 36 and 37 field goals in their first three contests. This will be the fifth meeting between these two teams going back to the start of last season and as I often say, familiarity tends to lend itself to relatively low-scoring basketball. Note that only twice in those previous four meetings did either side get off more than 88 FG attempts with Denver getting to 90 once and Portland reaching 91 on one occasion (those two contests still totalled only 219 and 216 points). Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-24-22 | Bears v. Patriots -8 | Top | 33-14 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
MNF Game of the Month. My selection is on New England minus the points over Chicago at 8:15 pm et on Monday. The Bears have had but one truly favorable offensive matchup this season - that coming two games back in Minnesota (we won with the 'over' in that contest) and I suppose you could say they took advantage, scoring 22 points, albeit on just 271 total yards. Outside of that, the Chicago offense has been rather unimaginative and certainly unproductive and I expect that to continue on Monday as it draws a poor matchup against a still-underrated Patriots defense. New England has absolutely erased the majority of the passing games it has faced this season, limiting each of its last five opponents to 21 or fewer pass completions (only its first opponent this season - Miami - topped that mark with 23). Teams that have elected to stick with the run against the Patriots have had moderate success in terms of yardage gained, but not to much in terms of reaching the end zone. I like the Bears offense far better when they have a clear lead back but that's not the case right now with David Montgomery healthy. If anything, Montgomery's health is holding back incumbent Khalil Herbert who has looked like the more explosive RB. The Patriots are expected to have both QB Mac Jones and RB Damien Harris back on offense. While RB Rhamondre Stevenson has performed well, it certainly doesn't hurt getting Harris back as he's proven to have a real nose for the end zone over the course of his career. There are certainly Mac Jones doubters out there, especially given how well Bailey Zappe has performed in his absence, but I think he does just fine here, serving little more than a 'game manager' role noting that the Bears have been lit up by opposing ground games, allowing 4.7 yards per rush. While we usually look to fade teams coming off ATS winning streaks, the Pats don't appear to qualify as they've gone an incredible 47-29 ATS in their last 76 games following three straight ATS victories, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 8.4 points in that situation. Meanwhile, Chicago checks in 5-13 ATS in its last 18 games in an underdog role, outscored by 9.2 points on average in that spot. Take New England (10*). | |||||||
10-24-22 | Nets v. Grizzlies UNDER 229.5 | 124-134 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Brooklyn and Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Monday. Most will be anticipating a track meet between these two star-studded squads on Monday night in Memphis. I'm not so easily convinced. After dropping both meetings last year, and allowing Memphis to dictate the tempo in each of those contests, I look for Brooklyn to make a concerted effort to slow things down on Monday. Note that the Nets have topped out at 89 field goal attempts across their six games to date (including the preseason). They scored 'only' 108 points in that game where they got off 89 FG attempts. Brooklyn checks in having held three of its last four opponents, again including the preseason, to 84 FG attempts or fewer. The Grizzlies have gone from 108 field goal attempts, to 98 to 79 in their three contests this season. On the flip side, they've allowed the opposition to get off 109, 93 and 90 attempts from the field. I do think the Grizzlies are a much better defensive team than they've shown, having allowed their first three opponents to knock down 44, 44 and 45 field goals. I think the slower pace of the Nets will aid them in getting their defense a little more settled in this one, noting that Brooklyn has been limited to 36, 29, 43, 37, 40 and 38 made field goals in its six games going back to the start of the preseason. The high-water mark of 43 came in a game where the Nets still scored just 107 points. In last season's two meetings with the Grizzlies, the Nets got off 82 and 87 FG attempts. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
10-24-22 | Stars v. Senators UNDER 6.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Ottawa at 7:05 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams have over-achieved offensively to this point this season but I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair on Monday night in Ottawa. The offensive exploits of the Stars have out-shadowed their terrific defensive play through five games, limiting opponents to 1, 1, 1, 3 and 2 goals. Ottawa checks in having scored 18 goals over its last three contests so you have to figure Dallas will be cautious not to get involved in an ultra high-scoring game here. After allowing 4, 3 and 5 goals in their first three games this season, the Senators have settled down a bit defensively, holding the Capitals and Coyotes to two goals apiece over their last two contests. Note that last year's two matchups between these teams both totalled exactly five goals. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
10-23-22 | Suns v. Clippers UNDER 220 | Top | 112-95 | Win | 100 | 16 h 36 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Sunday. I'm not convinced the pace will be there to warrant a total in the 220's on Sunday night in Los Angeles. Phoenix has incredibly limited its first two opponents to just 75 and 74 field goal attempts in regulation time. Opponents are having a tough enough time just getting shots off let alone knocking them down. The Clippers don't figure to be the opponent to break through as they're still finding their way with last night's 41 made field goals serving as their high-water mark going back over their last five games, including preseason action. It's a similar story for the Suns as they're off to a 1-1 start, knocking down 40 and 39 field goals in regulation time in those two contests. They made 40 field goals in a come-from-behind win over the Mavericks to open the season (scoring only 107 points in the process) and that's their highest total across five games, including the preseason. Four meetings between these two teams last season totalled 206, 195, 199 and 222 points. I believe tonight's total will prove too high, noting that the 'under' is 18-5 in the Suns last 23 games following a loss and better still, 12-1 in their last 13 contests off a road defeat. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-23-22 | Steelers v. Dolphins OVER 44.5 | Top | 10-16 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 8 m | Show |
SNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Miami at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. There's a lot to like about how this game sets up as a potential shootout, although perhaps not at first glance. We've only seen Steelers QB Kenny Pickett for one full game as he suffered a concussion in last week's stunning victory over the Buccaneers. In that contest he completed 34-of-52 passes for 327 yards against a pretty good Bills defense, on the road no less. While that performance was somewhat aided by game script as the Steelers trailed (by a wide margin) most of the way, there's no guarantee that won't be the case again as a touchdown underdog here. Miami is dealing with a cluster of injuries in its secondary and one of the only healthy bodies isn't even all that healthy as CB Xavien Howard has dealt with groin injuries all season long. The Dolphins defense as a whole has been unimposing for opposing quarterbacks, who have carved them up for 10 touchdown passes and only one interception. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are expected to have QB Tua Tagovailoa back from his scary concussion suffered 3+ weeks ago. He returns with a full compliment of weapons (Tyreek Hill was dropped from the injury report this week) and faces an injury-depleted Steelers defense that held up well at home against the Buccaneers last week but isn't likely to turn the trick for a second straight Sunday. Only one team has allowed more yardage to opposing wide receivers and no team has given up more touchdowns to that position this season. The Dolphins previous three home games were all played in the sweltering afternoon heat whereas this game will be played under the lights. I believe that lends itself to a higher-scoring affair than we've been accustomed to seeing here in Miami this season. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-23-22 | Sharks v. Flyers UNDER 6 | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Jose and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. While the NHL as a whole is off to a high-scoring start to the season, these two teams have combined to post a 4-8 o/u record. I expect that trend to continue when they match up in Philadelphia on Sunday. The Sharks have been held to 1, 2, 1, 2, 2, 3 and 1 goal in their seven games this season. Playing the second of back-to-back days and facing a stingy Flyers defense that has allowed two goals or less in four of five contests this season, they're not likely to break out here. Philadelphia skated to a 3-1 win in Nashville last night, continuing its surprisingly hot start to the campaign. Since scoring five goals in their season-opener against the Devils, the Flyers have scored exactly three goals in each of their four games since. The Sharks did limit the Flyers to just two goals in each of last year's two meetings and should bring some confidence that they can contain them again here after holding the Rangers and Devils to two goals apiece over their last two contests. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 12-2 the last 14 times the Sharks have played on the road off four losses in their last five games, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 4.8 goals. The Flyers have played a long-term 136-98 to the 'under' in home non-conference affairs. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
10-23-22 | Blue Jackets v. Rangers -1.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on New York -1.5 goals over Columbus at 5:05 pm et on Sunday. The Blue Jackets had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 6-3 loss to the Penguins on home ice last night. Meanwhile, the Rangers have been idle since Thursday, when they suffered a rare home loss by a 3-2 score against San Jose. The Blueshirts clearly got caught looking past the lowly Sharks in that game after a 3-1 start to the campaign. I don't expect them to do the Blue Jackets any such favors on Sunday, however. Columbus is going to give up its share of goals. Note that it has allowed 4, 5, 5, 3, 3 and 6 goals in six contests so far this season. While the Jackets have scored 12 goals over their last three games, I expect them to run into trouble with the Rangers rested and off a disappointing loss, not to mention playing at home. Note that New York has allowed an average of just 2.1 goals in 28 games following a home defeat over the last three seasons. Columbus checks in averaging only 2.0 goals per contest when playing on the road against division opponents over the same stretch. Take New York -1.5 goals (10*). | |||||||
10-23-22 | Seahawks v. Chargers OVER 50 | 37-23 | Win | 100 | 50 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Los Angeles at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams are coming off low-scoring games last week. I expect a much different story to unfold as they match up in Los Angeles on Sunday, however. Seattle's 19-point performance against Arizona last Sunday was largely game-script related as it led most of the way and was able to take the air out of the football. I certainly don't anticipate it being so fortunate as a considerable underdog here. The Chargers were held at bay against a stout Broncos defense on Monday night but now have the opportunity to tee off on one of the worst defensive teams in the league in the Seahawks. After being held out of the end zone for the entire game on MNF, I look for Herbert to throw for multiple scores here. Note that only two other teams allow more yards per pass play than the Seahawks this season. Chargers RB Austin Ekeler was terrific on Monday and should pick up right where he left off here as the Seahawks have given up just shy of 4.7 yards per rush on the season. The question becomes whether Seattle can inflict some damage itself in comeback mode. I'm confident it can noting that the Chargers are a bit of a mess defensively with Joey Bosa sidelined and L.A.'s run defense as a whole virtually non-existent, allowing a ridiculous 5.8 yards per rush this season. Seattle rookie RB Kenneth Walker ran wild against the Cardinals last Sunday and while we're talking about a very small sample size, he does look like the real deal. Of course, QB Geno Smith has exceeded all expectations under center, elevating the play of everyone around him in a much more aggressive Seahawks offense than we're used to seeing. This game has shootout potential, noting that the 'over' has gone 11-1 the last 12 times Seattle has come off an outright underdog win over a division opponent at home, as is the case here. The 'over' is also 18-8 in the Chargers last 26 games played from October onward, totalling an average of 54.7 points along the way. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
10-23-22 | Jets v. Broncos +1 | Top | 16-9 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 24 m | Show |
AFC Game of the Week. My selection is on Denver over New York at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. NOTE: Russell Wilson has been ruled out for the Broncos. Brett Rypien will start in his place. I'll stick with the play as I'm not sure that Rypien's presence changes what Denver will be looking to do and that's churn out long, clock-eating drives on offense while leaving the rest in the hands of its capable defense. Everyone is down on the Broncos right now while the Jets, perhaps along with the Giants, are the NFL's 'flavor of the month'. We actually won with the Jets last week in their outright blowout win in Green Bay. I loved the way that spot set up for Gang Green but I think it's a much different story this week as they stay on the road for a second straight game to face the down-trodden Broncos in Denver. With New York suddenly 4-2 on the season, just one game back of first place in the AFC East, this becomes a clear look-ahead spot as its next three games will come at home against New England and Buffalo, followed by a bye week and then a quick road rematch against the Patriots. I still feel this Jets squad has some warts. QB Zach Wilson has generally been awful since taking over the reins under center, completing just 42-of-75 passes for 572 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Yes, rookie RB Breece Hall has been outstanding but much of his success has been game-script dependent with the Jets holding sizable leads most of the way in each of the last two games. Prior to two weeks ago against Miami, New York had topped out at 98 rushing yards in a game this season. The Broncos, while clearly struggling, do still have at least a couple of redeeming qualities. Their defense remains stout. You don't hold the Chargers offense to 73 rushing yards and 224 passing yards (on 57 pass attempts) by fluke. Patrick Surtain would get my vote as the best cornerback in the NFL. Brandon Browning has been a massive find as a pass rusher on the outside. While it could certainly use some help from the offense, this is a defense capable of winning this game all on its own (note that the Broncos manhandled the Jets by a 26-0 score here in Denver in last year's meeting). While QB Russell Wilson hasn't been good by any stretch of the imagination, the Broncos play-calling has left a lot to be desired as well. They got way too predictable as the game went on in Los Angeles on Monday. I do think there were lessons to be gleaned from that narrow defeat and we'll see Denver employ a more aggressive offensive gameplan against a beatable Jets defense here. New York is certainly 'feeling itself' off last week's statement win in Green Bay (if you watched rookie Sauce Gardner's postgame interview you know what I mean). However, with young teams sometimes the highs are a little too high and I expect it to be brought back to Earth on Sunday. Here, we'll note that the Jets are a woeful 4-15 ATS in their last 19 road games following three consecutive victories, outscored by 8.7 points on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Broncos check in 28-12 the last 40 times they've played at home off a road loss against a division opponent, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 7.9 points in that situation. Take Denver (10*). | |||||||
10-23-22 | Blazers v. Lakers UNDER 224.5 | 106-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Portland and Los Angeles at 3:40 pm et on Sunday. I like the way this one sets up as a lower-scoring affair than expected on Sunday afternoon in Los Angeles. The Blazers had a tough enough time just getting shots off against the Suns last time out, attempting just 74 field goals in regulation time, yet still managed to prevail in overtime thanks to their solid defensive play. Off to a perfect 2-0 start this season, the Blazers have limited their first two opponents to just 85 and 84 field goal attempts. Now they face an inefficient Lakers offense that has managed to knock down 40 field goals once in two games but needed 93 FG attempts to reach that total. The problem that could be looming for the Blazers is that their own offense has been lukewarm. They've made good on just 39 and 36 field goals through two games and going back to the start of the preseason have topped out at 83 FG attempts. Only one of four meetings between these two teams last season got 'over' 212 points and that was a game where Portland got off a whopping 102 FG attempts. This marks the second-highest posted total in the last five matchups in this series and I believe it will prove too high. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
10-23-22 | Falcons v. Bengals OVER 47 | Top | 17-35 | Win | 100 | 51 h 4 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. This play sets up beautifully after so many bettors were left hanging with the 'over' in the Falcons 28-14 win over the 49ers last week. I can understand why those same bettors might be a little gun shy when it comes to playing the 'over' again here. Note that the 'under' has actually cashed in each of Atlanta's last three contests. With that being said, the Falcons led most of the way in two of those games while a very limited Buccaneers offense took its foot off the gas after jumping ahead 21-0 in the other. I mention that the Falcons led most of the way in two of those games as they were able to take their preferred course of action, taking the air out of the football and effectively shortening those contests. Here, I'm confident we'll see a much different game script as Atlanta projects to trail as a near-touchdown underdog against an improving Bengals offense. Let's get it straight, the Falcons defense isn't particularly good. Opponents have been bombing away on them with opposing quarterbacks facing little to no pressure in the pocket. Atlanta has yet to limit a single opponent to fewer than 226 passing yards this season. The Bengals are certainly comfortable following a similar gameplan, noting that they've attempted 32+ passes in all six games to date. We've also seen Cincinnati put up 27+ points in three of its last four games with the lone exception coming in a primetime division game in Baltimore two weeks ago. The Falcons offense doesn't get better after losing CB Casey Hayward to a shoulder injury. The good news for the Falcons is, the potential is there for them to stay competitive in this game due to a number of key injuries on the Bengals defense. DT D.J. Reader - one of Cincinnati's best run stoppers - remains sidelined. His backup Josh Tupuo is now out as well. Note that the Bengals have been torched for 155 and 228 rush yards over their last two games, which certainly plays into the hands of the run-happy Falcons here. Perhaps most importantly, LB Logan Wilson is nursing a shoulder injury. Should he miss that would really open things up for Atlanta TE Kyle Pitts, who has been a disappointment to this point, but draws a very favorable matchup against a Cincinnati defense that hasn't been able to contain opposing tight ends all season. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-23-22 | Browns v. Ravens OVER 45.5 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 55 m | Show |
AFC North Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Baltimore at 1 pm et on Sunday. We got the injury news we wanted on Friday as tight end Mark Andrews returned to practice for the Ravens while cornerback Denzel Ward was ruled out for the Browns. Of course, Cleveland's defense has been a disaster this season, in the conversation as one of the worst defensive units in the entire league. Myles Garrett did return against the Patriots last week and contributed three tackles and two sacks but he re-aggravated his shoulder injury badly enough that he needed an MRI earlier this week. It sounds like he'll be on the field for the Browns on Sunday but whether he's 100% healthy is certainly up for debate. The Ravens are a team built for shootouts with a quick-strike offense but a defense that has plenty of holes. With that being said, they're coming off three consecutive 'under' results. That's had a lot to do with QB Lamar Jackson's inability to connect on his deep throws over the last few games. I think we do see him clean that up this week, noting that the Ravens could have field-stretcher Rashod Bateman back from injury. Regardless whether Bateman plays or not, the Ravens receivers, and Andrews, can win matchups all over the field. On the flip side, the Browns running game should feast on a Ravens defense that has been fairly soft against opposing ground attacks, yielding 4.5 yards per rush. While Cleveland QB Jacoby Brissett has been a 'game manager' throughout his career, he's at least been consistent this season, completing 21 or 22 passes in five straight games. The Ravens haven't given up a lot through the air over their last couple of games but that's only because the opposition has elected to gash them on the ground, as Cleveland is likely to do here. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-23-22 | Lions v. Cowboys UNDER 49 | 6-24 | Win | 100 | 47 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Dallas at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Lions opened the season with four consecutive 'over' results but were shut out in a game that stayed well 'under' the total in New England prior to their bye week. I think we see the 'under' cash again here as Detroit returns to the field for a matchup against the Dallas Cowboys. Of course the big news is the likely return of QB Dak Prescott for the Cowboys. I'm not convinced all that much will change with the Cowboys offense, at least not in his first game back, however. Dallas has the running game rolling and isn't likely to start airing it out with Prescott six weeks removed from his last game action. On the other side, I think there's a good chance we see Lions head coach Dan Campbell come out with a run-centric gameplan as he looks for his team to play 'smash-mouth' football in an effort to break out of their two-game slump, and effectively shorten proceedings against the heavily-favored Cowboys. While Dallas possesses an elite, ball-hawking secondary and a fierce pass rush that could feast on Lions QB Jared Goff if given the opportunity, you can run on this unit, noting that it has allowed 4.4 yards per rush this season. Here, we'll note that the Lions have played 6-0 to the 'under' when coming off consecutive losses under head coach Dan Campbell, as is the case here, with those contests totalling an average of just 34.2 points. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
10-22-22 | Thunder +7.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 117-122 | Win | 100 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
Northwest Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Denver at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. While the Nuggets were busy upsetting the Warriors in San Francisco last night, the Thunder have been idle since opening the season with a narrow loss in Minnesota on Wednesday. Nothing that Oklahoma City is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games following an ATS win but SU loss on the road, we'll confidently back it here. While the Thunder lost their opener, I did like the fact that they managed to push the pace and get off 99 field goal attempts. On the flip side, they held what looks like an explosive T'Wolves offense to only 39 made field goals on 94 attempts. Going back to the preseason, the Thunder have yet to allow an opponent knock down more than 41 field goals in five games against NBA competition (they played two preseason games against non-NBA foes). As for the Nuggets, they're off to a 1-1 start to the campaign, yielding 42 made field goals in each contest despite limiting both of their opponents to 88 or fewer FG attempts. Nothing came easy for the Nuggets in this series last season as they only managed a 2-2 split with their two wins coming by a combined 10 points. Take Oklahoma City (10*). | |||||||
10-22-22 | Kings v. Capitals UNDER 6.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. The Kings have seen the 'over' cash in four consecutive games while the Capitals have delivered back-to-back 'over' results. This amounts to 'getaway day' for both teams, however, noting that Los Angeles will fly back home to open a three-game homestand while Washington hops on a plane for a four-game road trip at the end of tonight's proceedings. I'm anticipating more of a 'low-event' affair here on Saturday with the 'under' having gone a perfect 2-0 in this series last season and 9-1 the last 10 times the Kings have played on the road in a 6-in-10 situation, as is the case here. Note that both teams are a little banged-up early in the season with the Kings missing Aaron Iafallo and the Caps recently losing Connor Brown to the I.R. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
10-22-22 | Texas v. Oklahoma State UNDER 62.5 | 34-41 | Loss | -110 | 96 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Texas and Oklahoma State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the 'under' in excruciating fashion in Oklahoma State's double-overtime loss at TCU last Saturday. That was a 30-23 game with minutes remaining in the fourth quarter before TCU tied things up and we ultimately saw the Cowboys convert a 4th-and-9 in the first overtime that ended up sealing our fate with an 'under' 68.5 ticket. A lot had to go right (or wrong in our case) for that 'over' to hit. I don't expect to suffer a similar fate this week as we go back to the well with the same play, this time as Oklahoma State returns home to host Texas. The Longhorns are hitting their stride defensively after securing a hard-fought 24-21 win over Iowa State last Saturday (we won with the Cyclones plus the points in that game). Meanwhile, I don't think there's really any reason to get down on the Cowboys defense, despite coughing up last week's game. That had a lot to do with the offense not being able to stay on the field in the second half. Clearly, Oklahoma State got a little complacent after building an early 24-7 lead in that game. The Cowboys defense fell out of 'attack mode' from that point and certainly looked like it let down its guard up a couple of touchdowns in the fourth quarter. Texas has performed about as well offensively as anyone could have expected to this point of the season but opponents like Alabama and Iowa State have laid out a pretty good blueprint in terms of how to slow the Longhorns down and I do think Oklahoma State has the personnel in place to make good on that. Both teams want to run the football - in fact, Texas has topped out at 34 pass attempts this season - and I think we see the two ground attacks gain enough headway to effectively shorten proceedings on Saturday afternoon. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
10-22-22 | UCLA v. Oregon OVER 69.5 | Top | 30-45 | Win | 100 | 95 h 28 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between UCLA and Oregon at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I really like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair between the Bruins and Ducks on Saturday afternoon. This is about as close to the high-flying Oregon teams of the past that we've seen in recent years. The Ducks are scoring at will. They most recently had one stretch where they scored three touchdowns in 14 minutes and then another where they hung four touchdowns on the board in 11 minutes - in the same game - against Arizona. The week previous they scored three touchdowns in the final four-and-a-half minutes of the first half against Stanford. While UCLA is certainly a better defensive team than both of those opponents, it's not as if the Bruins are the '85 Bears. The last time we saw UCLA it prevailed in a wild 42-32 game against Utah. That was a day where the Utes clearly weren't at the top of their game offensively, yet they still managed to eclipse 30 points. There was probably some reason for concern with this Bruins defense earlier in the season when we saw it allow South Alabama to put together four scoring drives in an 18-minute stretch in the first half of a 32-31 UCLA victory. The good news for the Bruins is that they have an explosive offense of their own. QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson is one of the more underrated players in college football in my opinion, as is RB Zach Charbonnet, who has seemingly been getting stronger with each passing game. Noting that the 'over' is now 10-1 in UCLA's last 11 games after committing one or fewer turnovers in its previous game and a perfect 6-0 in Oregon's last six home games following a win, I'll call for nothing short of a shootout on Saturday. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-22-22 | Rice v. Louisiana Tech +3.5 | Top | 42-41 | Win | 100 | 96 h 3 m | Show |
C-USA Game of the Year. My selection is on Louisiana Tech plus the points over Rice at 3 pm et on Saturday. Joe Aillet Stadium in Ruston, Louisiana has traditionally been a house of horrors for visiting teams. Rice knows that as it has dropped four straight trips here, never coming within fewer than 15 points of the Bulldogs over that stretch. While this year's Owls squad has held its own, and then some, reeling off five consecutive ATS wins entering Saturday's contest, I look for it to fall short here. Last week, Rice could only muster 14 points in a field goal loss on the road against a very average Florida Atlantic defense. The Owls offense has certainly shown some regression as the schedule has toughened up - their two highest-scoring games of the season to date came back in Weeks 2 and 3 against the likes of FCS squad McNeese State and Louisiana-Lafayette. For Louisiana Tech, this is obviously a big game in terms of its potential Bowl hopes as it enters with just two victories and looking ahead at the schedule, will have only a few more legitimate opportunities to pick up wins and approach that six-victory mark. There have been positives to take away from the Bulldogs 2-4 start to the campaign. Back in mid-September Louisiana Tech travelled to Death Valley to face Clemson and stuck around for the entire first half, trailing just 13-6. Clemson took over in the third quarter but the Bulldogs again showed plenty of fight in the fourth quarter, scoring a pair of touchdowns to close the gap to 14 points before giving up a couple of scores late. Even last week at North Texas, Louisiana Tech fell behind 21-3 early but rallied to close the gap to a single touchdown entering the fourth quarter. My point being, there have been times where the Bulldogs could have folded the tent but instead reached down and showed some resiliency. I'm not convinced they'll have to be all that resilient in this particular matchup as I believe they can control proceedings. While the Bulldogs have been gashed by opposing ground games, I'm not sure that Rice has the backfield to take full advantage. Note that the Owls check in averaging just 127 rush yards per game on 3.7 yards per rush. Rice has had a tendency to look gassed following games I would term 'defensive slugfests', noting that it has gone a woeful 1-10 ATS in its last 11 contests following a game in which both teams scored 17 points or less, as is the case here, outscored by a whopping margin of 22.0 points on average in that situation. From October on, Louisiana Tech has outscored opponents by an average margin of 9.4 points in its last 69 games played here in Ruston. While the Bulldogs have had a tough run going back to last season, they've yet to suffer consecutive ATS losses this season and have been outscored by a minuscule 0.4 points on average when coming off an ATS defeat since the start of last season (nine-game sample size). Take Louisiana Tech (10*). | |||||||
10-22-22 | West Virginia v. Texas Tech -7 | 10-48 | Win | 100 | 96 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas Tech minus the points over West Virginia at 3 pm et on Saturday. Off consecutive road losses against Kansas State and Oklahoma State and following its bye week, it's 'put up or shut up' time for Texas Tech. I fully expect to see the Red Raiders rise to the occasion against West Virginia, which checks in off a massive weeknight win over Baylor last week. That Mountaineers win over the Bears essentially turned on a defensive fumble return for a touchdown as Baylor was driving to potentially go ahead 24-10 late in the first half. After scoring a touchdown less than five minutes into the first quarter, the Mountaineers didn't reach the end zone again on offense until nearly five minutes into the third quarter. There's no real shame in either of Texas Tech's last two defeats. Poor first quarters essentially doomed the Red Raiders in those two contests. I do feel the extra week of preparation between games should serve to help Texas Tech clean up some of its recent issues. The Red Raiders have looked like a different team in Lubbock compared to on the road, going a perfect 3-0 including an impressive win over Texas the last time we saw them take this field. Here, we'll note that West Virginia is a woeful 13-33 ATS in its last 46 games after winning three of its previous four contests ATS, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Texas Tech is 46-26 ATS in its last 72 home games off a loss, which is also the situation here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 12.5 points in that spot. Take Texas Tech (8*). | |||||||
10-22-22 | Kansas v. Baylor UNDER 60 | 23-35 | Win | 100 | 93 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas and Baylor at 12 noon et on Saturday. I think both teams have a keen interest in settling things down and avoiding a back-and-forth shootout in Waco on Saturday. Kansas certainly knows now that it's not going to hang with the big boys in the Big 12 by going touchdown for touchdown. That's especially true given the Jayhawks are without two of their best offensive players in QB Jalon Daniels and RB Daniel Hishaw. I do think the Jayhawks defense is better than it has showed over the last two games, in which it allowed 90 points against TCU and Oklahoma. It also faces a more manageable offensive opponent in Baylor this week. The Bears got involved in a somewhat unlikely track meet against West Virginia last Thursday. They've had a few extra days to prepare for this one and I expect them to come out strong defensively off consecutive losses in which they allowed a combined 79 points. The Bears manhandled the Kansas offense led by QB Jason Bean in last year's lone meeting, winning by a 45-7 score in Lawrence (we won with Baylor in that game). In fact, you would have to go back 11 meetings - all the way to 2011 - to find the last time the Jayhawks topped the 14-point mark against Baylor. Note that the 'under' has gone 19-8 in Baylor's last 27 games following a contest that saw both teams score 30+ points, as is the case here. After turning the football over five times in their last two games, the Bears will look to 'manage' this contest a little better, noting that the 'under' has cashed 10 of the last 12 times they've played at home after losing the turnover battle in consecutive games, resulting in an average total of just 51.2 points in that spot. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
10-21-22 | Red Wings v. Blackhawks UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Chicago at 8:35 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring games but I'm not all that high on either side offensively and expect a lower-scoring affair when they match up on Friday night in Chicago. Since opening the season with a 3-0 blanking of Montreal, Detroit has seen its last two contests total seven and nine goals. That's notable as the 'under' has gone 8-1 the last nine times the Red Wings have played on the road following a game that totalled nine goals or more, resulting in an average total of just 4.1 goals. The Blackhawks nearly tripled their offensive output through their first two games with a 5-2 victory in San Jose - that was last Saturday. They've been idle since. They had scored just two goals through their first two contests this season. Here, we'll note that the 'under' has gone 10-4 the last 14 times Chicago has come off a game in which it scored five or more goals. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-21-22 | Tulsa v. Temple OVER 52.5 | 27-16 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Tulsa and Temple at 7:30 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams are coming off embarrassing losses although Tulsa has had an extra week to lick its wounds following a 53-21 beatdown at the hands of Navy. The Golden Hurricane accomplished quite a feat of defensive futility in that game, allowing the Midshipmen to put together seven scoring drives over a 26-minute stretch from the first to third quarter. That wasn't the first time Tulsa got torched in short order this season. Remember, back on September 24th at Ole Miss it yielded four consecutive Rebels touchdown drives in a 14-minute stretch in the second quarter. There were also brutal defensive performances against Wyoming and Northern Illinois to open the campaign. The good news is, the Golden Hurricane offense is anything but lifeless and matches up well against a Temple defense that just got rocked for 70 points at UCF last Thursday. After jumping ahead 10-7, Temple was outscored by a ridiculous 63-3 margin over the next 40 minutes of game action. Are the Owls what we would call 'fake tough guys' on defense? The case can certainly be made for that being the case as that was the second straight game they were bullied after handling three consecutive lukewarm opponents in FCS squad Lafayette, Rutgers and UMass. Last year, Temple could only muster 10 points in a 41-10 rout at the hands of Tulsa. I do think the Owls have a little more punch on offense this year, even if QB E.J. Warner (yes that's Kurt's son) was awful last week. Jose Barbon is a standout wide receiver and I don't think Tulsa has anyone in the secondary that can bottle him up, noting that he's gone off for 237 yards on 12 catches over the last two games - against tougher defensive opponents than he'll face here. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
10-21-22 | Bulls v. Wizards +1 | Top | 100-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington minus the points over Chicago at 7:10 pm et on Friday. I have the Wizards pegged as a potential surprise team in the Eastern Conference this season and I like the way this spot sets up for them in their home-opener against the Bulls on Friday. Chicago pulled off a stunner in its season-opener two nights ago, leading most of the way in a 116-108 win over the Heat in Miami. We won with the 'over' in that contest, noting that the Bulls had a fantastic preseason from an offensive standpoint but also some warts to deal with at the defensive end of the floor. Surprisingly, Chicago was able to contain Miami's offense to the tune of just 80 field goal attempts. Yet the Heat still put up 108 points. Keep in mind, during its preseason slate, Chicago yielded its four opponents 93, 88, 96 and 92 FG attempts. We know the Wizards can push the pace, noting that they got off 92 FG attempts in their 114-107 win in Indiana two nights ago. I like Washington's depth a whole lot more than I do Chicago's. The Bulls needed DeMar Derozan's heroics to pull out the victory in Miami. Here, I'm not convinced his scoring exploits will be enough. Take Washington (10*). | |||||||
10-21-22 | Ottawa v. Hamilton -6 | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 20 m | Show |
CFL Game of the Week. My selection is on Hamilton minus the points over Ottawa at 7 pm et on Friday. We successfully faded the RedBlacks last week but needed a late Alouettes go-ahead score to get there. I expect this week's contest to be a little more straight-forward as Ottawa makes the trip to Hamilton to take on the Tiger-Cats. Note that this will be the second meeting between these two teams this season after Hamilton escaped with a 25-23 victory back in mid-July. It's worth noting that the RedBlacks didn't commit a single penalty in that game and won the turnover battle 4-2 yet still lost. Banged-up and simply playing out the string at this point, I don't expect Ottawa to pick itself up off the mat following last week's loss. The Ti-Cats check in playing some of their best football in an otherwise disappointing season, reeling off consecutive wins over Saskatchewan and Calgary. With Ottawa going completely one-dimensional on offense (it has run the football 21 or fewer times in five straight games), I expect the Ti-Cats defense to feast in this one. Note that the RedBlacks are a woeful 16-30 ATS the last 46 times they've come off a high-scoring game that totalled 60+ points, as is the case here, while the Ti-Cats are 7-4 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite of a touchdown or less. Take Hamilton (10*). | |||||||
10-20-22 | Clippers v. Lakers OVER 223.5 | 103-97 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between the Clippers and Lakers at 10 pm et on Thursday. The Lakers showed very little interest in controlling the tempo of their opponents last season and we saw more of the same in the preseason and again in their season-opener against the Warriors two nights ago. Even with Steve Kerr limiting his starters minutes, the Warriors still got off 99 field goal attempts, making good on 45 of them. In the preseason, the Lakers yielded their opponents 103, 105, 95, 88, 97 and 94 field goal attempts with all but one of those opponents knocking down 41 or more (the exception was a game where they still gave up 119 points against the Suns). I don't anticipate the Clippers coming out of the gates in midseason form defensively as they took part in only three preseason tilts against NBA opposition, allowing 40+ made field goals in each of their last two contests (those games totalled 236 and 241 points). On both occasions where the Clips got off 80+ FG attempts in the preseason, they managed to make good on at least 40. Given the pace the Lakers have yielded to the opposition, the opportunities should certainly be there for this Clips offense on Thursday. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 14-9 in the Lakers last 23 games following a loss against a division opponent and better still, 8-3 when that loss came by double-digits, as is the case here. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
10-20-22 | Hurricanes v. Oilers -110 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Edmonton over Carolina at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. I really like the way this spot sets up for the Oilers, who will be looking to avenge a pair of losses against the Hurricanes last season (in which they scored just two goals). Edmonton opened the campaign with a 5-3 win over the Canucks (which perhaps doesn't look as impressive given how poorly Vancouver has played). Since then, the Oilers have dropped consecutive home games against Calgary and Buffalo with the latter coming in embarrassing fashion two nights ago. Carolina is off to a perfect 3-0 start including consecutive wins to open its current five-game road trip. Here, we'll note that the Canes have gone a poor 42-74 the last 116 times they've played on the road following three straight victories. Meanwhile, the Oilers have outscored opponents by an average margin of 0.9 goals when playing at home after losing two of their last three games going back to the start of last season (22-game sample size). Take Edmonton (10*). | |||||||
10-20-22 | Saints v. Cardinals UNDER 44 | Top | 34-42 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
TNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and Arizona at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. We've seen plenty of stinkers in primetime action this season and it's hard to envision anything other than another relatively uneventful affair between the Saints and Cardinals on Thursday. It sounds like the Saints will give the keys to QB Andy Dalton for at least one more game, although there is an outside chance that Jameis Winston returns for this game. I'm not sure it really matters right now. While the Saints have seen each of their last three games go 'over' the total since Dalton took over for an injured Winston, it's had little to do with the 'Red Rocket' as they've actually seen their passing yardage regress over those three contests (19-of-36 passing for 171 yards last week). New Orleans' offensive line is banged-up and outside of standout rookie WR Chris Olave, there are few dynamic options in the receiving corps. QB Alvin Kamara remains the focal point of the offense and while he's played well, he's not the gamebreaker he once was and his ceiling is somewhat limited by the presence of Dalton, not to mention the Saints poor run and pass blocking. The Cardinals have quietly snuffed out opposing passing games this season, not allowing any opponent to throw for more than 244 yards since Week 1 against the Chiefs. Arizona will get WR DeAndre Hopkins back from suspension on Thursday and while he could make an immediate impact, he lands in a struggling Cardinals offense. Arizona's offensive line is dealing with injuries, leading to QB Kyler Murray running for his life a lot of the time. I'm confident in the Saints ability to contain Murray here. New Orleans QB Marshon Lattimore remains sidelined although his backup, Bradley Roby has held up alright, allowing 16 catches on 35 targets this season. The Cards have yet to throw for 300 yards this season and that's despite one game where they completed 37-of-58 passes against the Rams (they scored only 12 points in that contest). This has all the makings of another primetime game played close to the vest with both sides looking to run the football and effectively shorten proceedings. Note that the 'under' is a staggering 14-3 in the Saints last 17 Thursday games and 22-9 in the Cardinals last 31 contests at home following a double-digit loss against a division opponent. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-20-22 | Virginia v. Georgia Tech UNDER 47.5 | Top | 16-9 | Win | 100 | 56 h 29 m | Show |
AAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Virginia and Georgia Tech at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. Last year, these two teams were involved in a wild shootout that went Virginia's way by a 48-40 score. That game saw a closing total of 65.5 points so a high-scoring affair was to be expected. How things have changed for both teams. Virginia was involved in plenty of shootouts last year with an electric offense and a defense that couldn't get many stops at all. The script has flipped this year. The Cavaliers offense continues to struggle in pass and run blocking, and generally appears broken. They've topped out at 34 points and that performance came way back in Week 1 against an FCS opponent in Richmond. In fact, that's the last time the Cavaliers eclipsed the 20-point mark. Teams have been able to run on Georgia Tech but Virginia doesn't seem to have anyone capable of taking the lead out of the backfield, and as I mentioned its offensive line hasn't helped matters, struggling mightily in run-blocking. Georgia Tech has turned things around following a 1-3 start, posting back-to-back conference wins over Pittsburgh and Duke. While QB Jeff Sims might be the Yellow Jackets best offensive player, he's really their only true threat. WR Malachi Carter has dealt with an injury and when he has played, hasn't looked quite right. One thing we know is that the Yellow Jackets want to run the football, racking up 30+ rush attempts in all six games so far this season. The gameplan has been to keep drives (and the clock) moving, effectively shortening the game and leaving the heavy lifting to the defense. That defense has certainly had a 'bend but don't break' type of philosophy, giving up yardage on the ground but doing a nice job of snuffing out opposing aerial attacks. Only one opponent has thrown for 300+ yards on them and that was Pitt (it needed 45 pass attempts to get to 305 yards and scored 'only' 21 points in the game). Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 19-4 the last 23 times Virginia has come off a game in which it ran for 40 or fewer yards, as is the case here, leading to an average total of just 40.8 points in that spot. The idea is that the Cavaliers generally look to run the football after games where they're unable to do so. Note also that the 'under' is a long-term 53-29 with Georgia Tech coming off consecutive victories, which is also the situation here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-20-22 | Bucks v. 76ers UNDER 225.5 | Top | 90-88 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Philadelphia at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. I really like the way this one sets up as a lower-scoring game than most are expecting on Thursday night in Philadelphia. The Bucks went winless in five preseason games. No big surprise as wins and losses mean little during the preseason, especially for perennial contenders like the Bucks. That being said, what does have some carry-over effect from the preseason to the regular season is pace and efficiency at both ends of the floor. Milwaukee made good on 37, 41, 33, 37 and 34 field goals in its five exhibition contests. It got off more than 86 field goal attempts just twice in those five games, and scored 'only' 103 and 113 points in those two contests. While I do think Milwaukee can 'flip the switch' from a defensive standpoint and step up the intensity against an opponent that will certainly draw its intensity, I'm not sure we see the Bucks offense come roaring out of the gates. Philadelphia will obviously be in a foul mood after dropping its season-opener in Boston two nights ago. The 76ers allowed a whopping 126 points in that defeat although the pace didn't necessarily dictate such a high-scoring result. Note that Boston actually got off only 82 FG attempts. Both teams simply shot the lights out in that contest, as Philadelphia contibuted 40-of-80 shooting. Here, we'll note that the 'under' has cashed five of the last seven times the 76ers have come off a road loss against a division opponent while the 'under' has also gone a profitable 44-39 the last 83 times Philadelphia has come off an 'over' result. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-20-22 | Bucks v. 76ers -4 | 90-88 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Milwaukee at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. We cashed a ticket fading the 76ers on opening night in Boston but I won't hesitate to go the other way and back them as they return home to host the Bucks on Thursday. I'm just not sure that Milwaukee gets enough scoring opportunities to ultimately keep Philadelphia within arm's reach in this game. Note that the Bucks struggled to get their shots off during the preseason. They topped out at 41 made field goals in a 10-point loss to the Hawks but they needed 97 field goal attempts to get there. Outside of that they were limited to just 37, 33, 37 and 34 made field goals in their other four preseason tilts. The 76ers made good on 40-of-80 FG attempts in their opener against the Celtics. Boston simply shot the lights out in that contest as Philadelphia did limit it do just 82 FG attempts. Milwaukee has won three straight meetings here in Philadelphia. I look for that streak to end here. Take Philadelphia (8*). | |||||||
10-19-22 | Blazers v. Kings -1.5 | Top | 115-108 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Sacramento minus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. It may surprise you to find out that the Kings actually finished with a better record than the Blazers last season and were considerably stronger against the Western Conference. While Sacramento only held a three-game advantage over Portland overall, it was nine games better against the West. While I don't put a lot of stock in preseason results, there are exceptions to that rule. The Kings went a perfect 4-0 during their exhibition schedule, making good on 42, 45, 36 and 46 field goals in those four contests. The outlier was a game in Phoenix where they shot 41% from the field but still pulled out a one-point victory. On the flip side, the Kings did a tremendous job of limiting their opponents' scoring opportunities, something we're certainly not used to seeing when it comes to this franchise. Only one of their four preseason opponents got off 80+ field goal attempts and that was the Lakers in a game where they scored only 86 points on 29-of-81 shooting. There are a lot of mouths to feed when it comes to the Blazers offense, especially with the addition of Jerami Grant from the Pistons. Portland went winless against NBA opposition during the preseason (it did post a victory over Maccabi Ra'anana) and it wasn't pretty as it knocked down just 31, 36, 29 and 32 field goals, with the low-water mark coming in a 126-94 loss to the Kings. It's not as if Portland sent its 'B' squad to the court in that game against Sacramento either. Its starting five consisted of Nurkic, Grant, Simons, Lillard and Hart - likely the same lineup we'll see tonight. All five played 22+ minutes in that game against Sacramento. Maybe the Blazers 'flip the switch' on Wednesday but I'm not betting on it. Take Sacramento (10*). | |||||||
10-19-22 | Mavs v. Suns UNDER 216.5 | 105-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. I expect this showdown between two NBA title contenders in the Mavs and Suns to have a bit of an old-school feel to it on Wednesday night, and that should lend itself to a lower-scoring affair than most are expecting. The Mavs played only three preseason games, allowing 32, 39 and 41 made field goals with the latter coming in a game where the Jazz got off 91 field goal attempts (and still scored only 101 points). For their part, the Mavs got off 85 or fewer FG attempts in all three games, knocking down 35, 35 and 38 field goals along the way. The Suns opened their preseason slate with a stunning 134-124 loss to the Adelaide 36ers. In three preseason tilts against NBA opposition they limited their foes to 82, 82 and 88 FG attempts with none of those teams knocking down more than 37 field goals. Offensively, the Suns topped out at 39 made field goals and that was in a game where they got off a whopping 105 FG attempts against the Lakers. Expect this 'battle of the titans' to have a defensive flavor on Wednesday. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
10-19-22 | Bulls v. Heat OVER 215.5 | 116-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Miami at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. Both of these teams were 'filling it up' all preseason long and I expect more of the same as they match up in Wednesday's season-opener. The Bulls won three of their four preseason tilts, scoring at least 115 points in all four games. In those contests they knocked down 43, 50, 43 and 50 field goals, without any of those affairs being aided by overtime. Those are staggering results when you consider the pace most teams tend to play at during the preseason. Defensively, there are warts to deal with, however. Note that Chicago allowed its opponents to get off 93, 88, 96 and 92 field goal attempts in those four games. The Heat enjoyed a successful preseason as well, reeling off four straight victories after opening with a loss to the T'Wolves. Like the Bulls, their offense appeared to be in midseason form, making good on 42, 41, 37, 38 and 40 field goals. The pace Miami played at over the course of those five games was notable as it hoisted up 94+ FG attempts on three occasions. This is one of the lowest totals on Wednesday's board and I don't think it's warranted. Take the over (9*). | |||||||
10-19-22 | Georgia State v. Appalachian State UNDER 60.5 | 17-42 | Win | 100 | 33 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Georgia State and Appalachian State at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday. Both of these teams are coming off 'over' results in their most recent games but I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday. Georgia State has attempted 30+ passes only once previously this season and that came against a non-existent Charlotte defense. The Panthers want to run the football and aren't likely to stray too far away from that gameplan against the Mountaineers on Wednesday. They've gained 200+ rushing yards in all but one of their games this season but I think they'll be hard-pressed to get there against an Appalachian State defense that has absolutely erased its opponents' ground attacks in three of its six games this season. While two of the Mountaineers last three opponents have racked up exactly 172 yards on the ground, those two teams needed 46 and 59 rush attempts to get there. If anything, Appalachian State's offense has regressed as the season has gone on. The Mountaineers did complete 40-of-53 passes for 395 yards against Texas State last time out, but scored 'only' 24 points in a losing effort. That marked the first time this season they had attempted more than 35 passes in a game and was clearly game script related. I don't think there's any question they want to be more balanced on offense, and game script should favor a run-heavy gameplan here with the Mountaineers checking in as double-digit favorites. Last year's matchup between these two teams totalled 61 points but that had a lot to do with Georgia State's carelessness with the football (or perhaps more to do with the Mountaineers ball-hawking nature a year ago) as Appalachian State scored 45 points fuelled by three interceptions. This year's Mountaineers squad hasn't been nearly as turnover-happy - yet to force more than two turnovers in any of their first six games. It's been a different story for Georgia State as it has forced eight turnovers in its last two games alone and 15 on the season. That should only lead to Appalachian State putting an even stronger emphasis on taking care of the football and churning out long, clock-eating drives on Wednesday. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 19-7 the last 26 times Georgia State has come off a conference win, leading to an average total of 51.5 points. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
10-19-22 | Magic +3.5 v. Pistons | 109-113 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. Only one game separated these two teams near the Eastern Conference basement last season with Detroit holding that narrow advantage. Both franchises continue to look to the future. Here, in Tuesday's season-opener I believe the Pistons are being given a little too much respect. Detroit may have plenty of young talent on its roster but it couldn't get a stop in the preseason, allowing its four opponents to knock down 46, 38, 45 and 46 field goals. The outlier came in a contest the Pistons still lost by six points in New Orleans. On the flip side, the Pistons made good on just 33, 31, 35 and 40 field goals in those four games. The latter performance took a whopping 102 FG attempts to get there and Detroit still lost that contest by 15 points against Memphis. The Magic went 4-1 in the preseason and actually showed a pulse on defense, limiting the opposition to just 36, 34, 35, 37 and 35 made field goals. It yielded its opponents more than 82 FG attempts only once in those five games. We saw steady improvement from Orlando offensively over the course of the preseason, culminating with it knocking down 39+ field goals in each of its last three games. Now it gets a boost with the expected return of Jalen Suggs for Tuesday's opener. Take Orlando (8*). | |||||||
10-18-22 | Lakers +6.5 v. Warriors | 109-123 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Golden State at 10 pm et on Tuesday. I love everything about the Lakers entering the new season, in a very strange sort of way. Consider them a beautiful mess under first-year head coach Darvin Ham. Here, we're catching more than a handful of points with Los Angeles in a spot few expect much out of it on the road against the defending champion Warriors. Of course, Golden State is a well-oiled machine but like I said, I'm more intrigued by the Lakers at this early stage of the season. There's room for improvement at the center position with Damian Jones, formerly of the Kings and Thomas Bryant, who comes over from the Wizards two true wild cards. Lebron James and Anthony Davis are healthy, for now. Russell Westbrook might be injured. He might start. He might come off the bench. Again, another complete wild card. And then there's the whole Pat Beverley situation. As odd as it may sound I believe it all adds up to a far more interesting and potentially improved Lakers squad and this is a perfect opportunity to make a statement right out of the gate. Interestingly, the Lakers check in 27-19 ATS the last 46 times they've played on the road with the total set at 220 points or higher, as is the case here. The Warriors are a mediocre 33-35 ATS in their last 68 contests when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points, which is also the situation here. Take Los Angeles (8*). | |||||||
10-18-22 | Kings v. Predators -147 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -147 | 15 h 10 m | Show |
Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Nashville over Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Kings have secured consecutive wins to open their current road trip, including a wild 5-4 overtime victory last night in Detroit. The Predators opened the season with a pair of wins over the Sharks in Prague but have suffered a hangover of sorts since returning, dropping both games in a home-and-home series against the Stars. After a couple of days off, I look for the Preds to bounce back here, noting that they've gone an incredible 10-2 when coming off consecutive losses by 2+ goals over the last 2+ seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.4 goals on average in that spot. Nashville took the first two meetings between these two teams last season before letting its guard down and dropping a lopsided 6-1 decision in Los Angeles in late March. The Kings haven't recorded a victory in Nashville since back in 2016. Take Nashville (10*). | |||||||
10-18-22 | 76ers v. Celtics -2 | Top | 117-126 | Win | 100 | 34 h 50 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Boston minus the points over Philadelphia at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. I'm higher on the Celtics than some entering the new season and I like their chances of picking up a statement win against a division rival in Tuesday's home opener. While Boston's big offseason acquisition Danilo Gallinari is now sidelined for the season, the cupboard is still well-stocked. Robert Williams is also injured but there's depth at the power forward position with veteran Al Horford and Grant Williams, who showed some positive signs during the preseason. I also like the bench duo of Payton Pritchard and Derrick White to make big strides this season. The 76ers went undefeated in four preseason games so the argument could be made that they're already in midseason form. I don't put a ton of stock in NBA preseason wins and losses though. I'm simply not as high on the 76ers depth as I am on the Celtics. Here, we'll note that Philadelphia has been outscored by an average margin of 6.1 points as a road underdog going back to the start of last season (20-game sample size). Take Boston (10*). | |||||||
10-17-22 | Broncos +5 v. Chargers | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver plus the points over Los Angeles at 8:15 pm et on Monday. We successfully faded the Broncos last week as they lost outright as a short home favorite against the Colts. Here, I won't hesitate to go the other way as Denver hits the road for a critical matchup against the Chargers in Los Angeles. The Bolts come off consecutive road wins over Houston and Cleveland but neither performance was all that impressive. While loaded with talent, the Chargers defense has been anything but dominant this season. They've been torched for more than 6.0 yards per rush while only three other teams have given up more touchdowns to opposing wide receivers. I believe that opens the door for a Broncos offense that has had a few extra days to perhaps sort out its issues following that embarrassing performance against the Colts. There's no question Denver has the personnel in place to perform much better than it has offensively, particularly at the wide receiver position. Defensively, the Broncos have been stout, particularly against the pass. While the Chargers could probably gain plenty of traction running the football in this one, the temptation always seems strong to put the game in the hands of QB Justin Herbert rather than leaning to heavily on their ground attack. Here, we'll note that Los Angeles has allowed 31.9 points per game while being outscored by an average margin of 2.7 points when coming off consecutive games in which it scored 25+ points, as is the case here. As poorly as things have gone for the Broncos at times, they've still allowed just 18.3 points per game and have outscored opponents by an average margin of 0.3 points going back to the start of last season. Take Denver (8*). | |||||||
10-17-22 | Avalanche v. Wild +1.5 | 6-3 | Loss | -225 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota +1.5 goals over Colorado at 8:05 pm et on Monday. The Wild are off to a disappointing 0-2 start to the season, allowing a whopping 14 goals in the process. This wouldn't figure to be an ideal bounce-back spot against the defending Stanley Cup champion Avalanche but I like the fact that we're able to grab an insurance goal with Minnesota, even if we do have to pay a heavy tariff to do so. The Avs are just 1-1 to start the campaign after suffering a 5-3 loss in Calgary to open this road trip. Note that Colorado has averaged just 2.8 goals the last 17 times it has played on the road following consecutive games that totalled seven or more goals, outscoring opponents by just 0.3 goals in that situation. The Wild check in an incredible 17-4 when coming off consecutive games in which they allowed 4+ goals over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here, averaging 3.7 goals and outscoring opponents by 0.9 goals on average in that spot. You would have to go back four meetings in this series to find the last time the Avs won by 2+ goals and that came on home ice almost a year ago. Colorado's last victory by two or more goals here in Minnesota came nearly two years ago, back in January of 2021. Take Minnesota +1.5 goals (8*). | |||||||
10-17-22 | Canucks +1.5 v. Capitals | 4-6 | Loss | -200 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Vancouver +1.5 goals over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The Canucks are off to an 0-2 start to the season following losses in Edmonton and Philadelphia. I look for them to salvage at least a point in Monday's stop in Washington, however. Note that the Canucks are a perfect 5-0 when coming off a one-goal loss on the road going back to last season, outscoring opponents by a full 2.0 goals on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Caps check in a woeful 2-7 when playing at home after giving up one goal or less in their previous contest over the same stretch, allowing 3.3 goals and outscored by 0.6 goals on average in that situation. While we're being asked to lay a considerable price to grab the insurance goal with the visitors here, I believe that price is warranted and could be even higher. Take Vancouver +1.5 goals (8*). | |||||||
10-17-22 | Kings v. Red Wings UNDER 6 | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Detroit at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The Kings have already been involved in a couple of wild, high-scoring affairs this season, including last time out as they prevailed by a 7-6 score in Minnesota. Meanwhile, Detroit is fresh off a 5-2 victory in New Jersey - its second straight win to open the campaign. Here, I look for a lower-scoring affair as each team aims to pick up its third victory. Note that the 'under' has gone 17-6 with the Kings coming off a game that totalled eight or more goals over the last 2+ seasons, resulting in an average total of just 4.9 goals. The 'under' is 19-8 the last 27 times Detroit has played at home after scoring 4+ goals in its last game, leading to an average total of just 5.1 goals. Better still, the 'under' is 23-8 with the Wings coming off a victory by 2+ goals over the last 2+ seasons, with an average total of 5.3 goals scored in that spot. Finally, we'll note that the Wings have played to an average total of only 4.6 goals when coming off a contest in which they scored 5+ goals going back to the start of last season (12-game sample size). Take the under (8*). | |||||||
10-16-22 | Cowboys v. Eagles -6 | Top | 17-26 | Win | 100 | 36 h 36 m | Show |
SNF Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Dallas at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Cowboys last Sunday as they pulled off another upset win, this time on the road against the defending Super Bowl champion Rams, but I won't hesitate to go the other way and fade Dallas as it plays on the road for a second straight week. QB Cooper Rush has been terrific in a 'game manager' role over the last four games, but game script has certainly favored the Cowboys as they've led most of the way in those contests. I expect a different story to unfold in Philadelphia on Sunday night as Rush is asked to do a little too much and upending the undefeated Eagles proves to be a bridge too far for the Cowboys. I came close to fading the Eagles last Sunday in Arizona as I absolutely hated the spot for Philadelphia, travelling across the country to face a Cardinals squad that would be easy to overlook. Right on cue, the Cards gave the Eagles all they could handle, ultimately missing a late field goal that would have tied the game. Here, I look for the Eagles to refocus and benefit from getting virtually their entire offensive line back healthy after being undermanned in that department last week. This really is an 'anything you can do, I can do better' type of matchup for the Eagles against a Cowboys squad that has admittedly played well. While Dallas would certainly like to effectively shorten this game by churning out long, clock-eating drives on offense, the Eagles defense is capable of snuffing out the run while also locking down the Cowboys receivers. I'm not convinced the Cowboys will be able to orchestrate enough of those long drives to keep its defense fresh against a multi-dimensional Eagles offense here. You can be sure Philadelphia hasn't forgotten about last season, when it got drilled in both matchups against Dallas, allowing 40+ points in each game. Look for the Eagles to get their payback here. Take Philadelphia (10*). | |||||||
10-16-22 | Cowboys v. Eagles UNDER 42.5 | Top | 17-26 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 19 m | Show |
NFC East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Philadelphia at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. Last season's two meetings between these NFC East rivals were wild, high-scoring affairs in favor of the Cowboys but I look for a much different story to unfold on Sunday night in Philadelphia. With QB Cooper Rush in line to start for at least one more game, we know what we're going to get from the Cowboys at this point. They'll keep Rush in a 'game-managing' role as they look to leave proceedings in the hands of their very capable defense. On the flip side, Philadelphia has been somewhat 'feast-or-famine' on offense, scoring points in bunches but also going extended stretches without hitting paydirt. The Eagles are expected to be back at full strength on their offensive line and that should equate to plenty of long, clock-churning drives against a Cowboys defense that will look to 'bend but not break', keeping everything - and most importantly dual-threat QB Jalen Hurts - in front of them on Sunday night. Note that the 'under' is 28-14 the last 42 times the Cowboys have played on the road following three consecutive victories, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 40.8 points. The Eagles have seen the 'under' go 17-12 in their last 29 games against NFC opponents. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-16-22 | Jaguars +2.5 v. Colts | Top | 27-34 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 1 m | Show |
AFC South Game of the Year. My selection is on Jacksonville plus the points over Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday. As I mentioned last week, making the decision to bet for or against the Jaguars when they play at home isn't rocket science. You back them when they host the Colts and fade them against everyone else. That strategy worked to perfection once again last Sunday as they fell as a considerable favorite at home against the Texans. Here, we find the Jags back on the road, where they're just 1-2 so far this season but their two losses were competitive affairs against the Commanders and still-undefeated Eagles. Of course, the Jags already have a win over these Colts to their credit. We successfully backed Jacksonville in its 24-0 stomping of Indy back in Week 2. In fact, we've been involved in all five Colts games this season in some shape or form, including two of the last three weeks when we successfully backed them in upset wins over the Chiefs and Broncos. I won't hesitate to go the other way this week, however, as they return home in a favored role against division-rival Jacksonville. Indy's offense remains broken. QB Matt Ryan has shown no ability whatsoever to push the ball down the field, wasting the talent of WR Michael Pittman in the process. While RB Jonathan Taylor is expected to return this week, I'm not convinced he'll be able to find any running room behind an offensive line that has struggled mightily to both run and pass block. The Jags defense has held up as well as anyone could have expected so far this season. Even two weeks ago when their offense turned the football over a whopping five times in the rain in Philadelphia, they still 'only' allowed 29 points against a high-powered Eagles offense. Last week's loss certainly can't be pinned on the defense as the Jags offense simply couldn't get anything going against the Texans. There are going to be some growing pains like that over the course of the season for this offense but I expect it to bounce back on Sunday. The Colts defense was made to look good against a punchless Broncos offense last week. I don't believe it will be so fortunate here as Jags QB Trevor Lawrence looked incredibly comfortable against this unit back in Week 2, picking it apart for 25-of-30 passing for 235 yards. Even last year, when the Jags were an absolute mess, they still managed to stay within six points of the Colts as a double-digit underdog here in Indy. I believe the case can be made for the wrong team being favored here. Take Jacksonville (10*). | |||||||
10-16-22 | Bucs -9.5 v. Steelers | 18-20 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay minus the points over Pittsburgh at 1 pm et on Sunday. We missed with the Bucs in last week's game as they left the back door wide open after building a three-touchdown lead against the Falcons. I don't expect to suffer a similar fate here as Tampa Bay is well-positioned to blow the doors off a reeling Steelers squad. There was some optimism in Pittsburgh entering the season but that has been all but dashed following a 1-4 start. Missing a host of key players on defense, the Steelers just don't have the personnel in place to slow Tom Brady and the Bucs steadily-improving offense here. After clearly taking its foot off the gas in the second half against Atlanta last week, and nearly paying the price, I look for Tampa to lay the hammer down here. Defensively, the Bucs are also in a smash spot against a Steelers offense that is quickly turning the page over to the future with QB Kenny Pickett starting at quarterback and rookie RB Jaylen Warren starting to usurp Najee Harris in the backfield. Pickett hasn't shown any sort of rapport with his receiving corps, perhaps with the exception of fellow rookie WR George Pickens. I don't think the absence of TE Pat Freiermuth can be overlooked here either as he's a big part of what the Steelers like to do in the red zone, not to mention a key blocker, noting that Pittsburgh's pass and run blocking is among the worst in the entire NFL. Take Tampa Bay (8*). | |||||||
10-16-22 | Vikings v. Dolphins OVER 45 | 24-16 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the Vikings 27-22 win over the Bears last Sunday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as they hit the road to face the Dolphins this week. As I noted in last week's analysis, Minnesota is a team built for high-scoring affairs. We're starting to see the offense come around under the new coaching staff, consistently scoring in the high-20's in three consecutive weeks. This is another fine matchup, particularly for the Vikings passing game with Dolphins top CB Xavien Howard dealing with groin injuries on both sides and his running-mate Byron Jones still sidelined. Minnesota's offensive line has been a work-in-progress but it allowed just one sack against the Bears last Sunday and if given time in the pocket, Kirk Cousins and WR Justin Jefferson should feast on Miami's banged-up secondary on Sunday. On the flip side, rookie QB Skylar Thompson will start for the Dolphins. The fact that head coach Mike McDaniel is willing to turn to Thompson is telling as all indications are that veteran backup Teddy Bridgewater likely could have played. I think McDaniel knows Thompson gives the Fins a better chance of pushing the football down the field against a very beatable Vikings secondary. Miami's dynamic WR duo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle has been relatively quiet in recent weeks but this sets up as a smash spot, should they be able to shake off their nagging injuries. There's nothing imposing about the Vikes defense as it is highly-susceptible to the deep pass (it allows 7.8 yards per pass attempt) and hasn't been able to stop the run with any consistency (yielding 4.4 yards per rush). Last week was the first time Minnesota held an opposing team under 100 rushing yards but that's only because the Bears were trailing much of the game and didn't stay committed to running the football as a result. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is an incredible 21-5 the last 26 times the Vikings have played on the road following a home win in which they didn't cover the spread and 10-1 in their last 11 games following an ATS loss of any kind. Meanwhile, the 'over' has gone 8-5 the last 13 times Miami has come off an ATS defeat, which is also the situation here. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
10-15-22 | USC v. Utah UNDER 65 | 42-43 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between USC and Utah at 8 pm et on Saturday. The Utes had to come away embarrassed by their defensive performance against UCLA last week, suffering a 42-32 defeat. While that game ended up getting into the 70's, it actually saw just seven points scored in the first quarter and the score was 14-10 UCLA at the end of the first half. Things didn't go Utah's way in the second half and I certainly expect it to make amends here, by keeping proceedings far more under control. Keep in mind, the Utes are without one of their top offensive players from the start of the campaign in TE Brant Kuithe. They can ill afford to get involved in another shootout here against an undefeated USC squad. We didn't see it much last week as the Utes were forced to play from behind most of the way but they certainly will want to possess the football for extended stretches and effectively shorten this game with long, clock-churning drives. I'm not convinced the big play potential will be there against a solid Trojans defense. Save for allowing two unanswered fourth quarter touchdowns in a blowout win at Stanford back in Week 2, the USC defense has been outstanding this season. It had a brief lapse early in the second quarter last Saturday against Washington State, allowing two touchdowns in just over three minutes but that was it as it held the Cougars to just those 14 points in another lopsided victory. The last time we saw the Trojans play on the road they showed the ability to win a 'grind-it-out' type of affair, prevailing by a 17-14 score at Oregon State on September 24th. It is worth noting that USC didn't reach the end zone in that contest until the first minute of the third quarter. The Beavers did lay out a pretty good defensive blueprint for how to slow the Trojans offense, something the Utes will look to replicate here - again, job one will be simply holding onto and moving the football on offense in an effort to keep their defense fresh - something they weren't able to do last week. USC QB Caleb Williams is going to be a handful for the Utah defense but it is worth noting that he hasn't been running the football at will as much as you might expect. In two previous road games, he ran for just 31 yards on 18 attempts. He's topped out at nine rushing attempts in five of six games so far this season. While last year's matchup between these two teams ultimately totalled 68 points in a Utah road upset, we're dealing with a considerably higher posted total this time around (last year's game saw a closing total of just 52.5 points). I'm not sure that it's warranted. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
10-15-22 | Mississippi State v. Kentucky UNDER 49 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 33 h 50 m | Show |
SEC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Mississippi State and Kentucky at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. Mississippi State has seen three straight games go 'over' the total (based on closing numbers - we played the 'under' early in the week prior to its game against Arkansas last week before the total moved seven points) but I look for a different story to unfold on Saturday in Lexington. Note that the Bulldogs have forced seven turnovers while turning the football over just once themselves over the last three games - a big reason they racked up 45, 42 and 40 points over those three contests, all victories, also notably all at home. In two previous road games this season we've seen Mississippi State hang 40+ points on a bad Arizona defense and score just 16 points the next week at LSU. Here, the Bulldogs will face a tough challenge against a Kentucky squad that has held all six opponents to 24 points or less this season. The Wildcats are expected to have QB Will Levis back for Saturday's game and most expect the offense to immediately take off after scoring just 14 points in a disappointing home loss against South Carolina last week. I'm not so easily convinced. Remember, just two games back, with Levis on the field, Kentucky scored just 19 points in a loss to Ole Miss. While Mississippi State is known for its high-powered offense, its defense has been outstanding as well. Case in point, last week it didn't allow a touchdown against Arkansas until it was already ahead 21-3 with less than two minutes remaining in the first half. It has topped out at 276 passing yards allowed this season and that came in a game where Arizona attempted 54 passes and scored just 17 points. While last year's matchup between these two teams did go 'over' the total, it also featured a lower total than we're working with here. You would have to go back five meetings in the series to find the last time the two teams combined to score more than 48 points. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-15-22 | Arizona v. Washington OVER 73 | 39-49 | Win | 100 | 29 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Washington at 5:30 pm et on Saturday. All of the ingredients are there for a true shootout between the Wildcats and Huskies on Saturday in Seattle. These two teams were involved in an ugly 21-16 affair in favor of Washington last year. Keep in mind, a low-scoring game was to be expected as the total was set in the mid-40's for that one. Expect a much different story to unfold here. Arizona might not have the worst defense in the FBS but it's in the conversation. Opponents have had their way with the Wildcats, both on the ground and through the air, and Washington is well-positioned to take advantage as well - not to mention in a foul mood off consecutive road losses against UCLA and Arizona State. If the Wildcats are to have any hope of staying competitive in this one they're going to need QB Jayden De Laura to come up big. My concern for the Huskies defense here is their secondary. I don't think Washington has anyone capable of containing Arizona WR Jacob Cowing, who is capable of blowing the top off even the most skilled secondaries. Meanwhile, the Washington offense should feast in this matchup. There's really nothing the Wildcats defend particularly well, noting there was a 14-minute stretch where they yielded three touchdowns against Oregon last week...and then another seven-minute period where they gave up three more TD scores...that's right, in the same game. With Washington's tendency to let up late (it has allowed 29 fourth quarter points in its last two victories), the potential is certainly there for late scoring in this one. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 10-1 the last 11 times Washington has come off an outright loss as a double-digit favorite against a conference opponent, as is the case here. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
10-15-22 | Oklahoma State v. TCU UNDER 69.5 | Top | 40-43 | Loss | -115 | 97 h 1 m | Show |
Big 12 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma State and TCU at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I really like the way this one sets up as a lower-scoring affair than most are expecting on Saturday afternoon in Fort Worth. This is obviously a massive Big 12 showdown as both teams enter sporting perfect 5-0 records. Oklahoma State is coming off consecutive wild, high-scoring wins over Baylor and Texas Tech to open its Big 12 schedule. Meanwhile, TCU won (and covered) in thrilling fashion on the road against previously undefeated Kansas last Saturday, scoring at least 38 points for the fifth straight time to open the campaign. I believe both teams will be facing their toughest defensive test of the season on Saturday. Note that game script has been a big factor in the Cowboys last two high-scoring results. Last week against Texas Tech, two early touchdown scores (one by each team) in the game's first four minutes ultimately led to a back-and-forth shootout. Keep in mind, after giving up a Texas Tech touchdown just under three minutes into the second quarter, the Cowboys held the Red Raiders out of the end zone with the exception of one score around midway through the third quarter. Two weeks ago against Baylor, Oklahoma State jumped ahead 23-3 and didn't yield a Bears touchdown until nearly three minutes into the second half. Meanwhile, TCU gave up two touchdowns in the first 17 minutes against Oklahoma two weeks ago but then didn't allow another touchdown score until the outcome had long been decided, up 55-17 just shy of four minutes into the fourth quarter. Last week, the Horned Frogs didn't allow a Kansas touchdown until just over two minutes into the second half. Things went a bit sideways from there as TCU was geared toward facing dual-threat QB Jaylon Daniels but after he suffered an injury, Jake Bean took over the Jayhawks offense and bombed away. After Oklahoma State won last year's matchup between these two teams by a 63-17 score, you can be sure that TCU has little interest in getting involved in a shootout here, regardless how much confidence it has in QB Max Duggan. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 9-1 in the Cowboys last 10 games when playing on the road off a home win but non-cover as a favorite, resulting in an average total of just 46.4 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Horned Frogs have seen the 'under' cash in four of their last five games following consecutive contests in which 60+ points were scored, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-15-22 | Braves -118 v. Phillies | 3-8 | Loss | -118 | 7 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta over Philadelphia at 2:05 pm et on Saturday. After watching the raucous crowd supporting the Phillies yesterday, bettors may be a little hesitant to back the defending World Series champion Braves on Saturday, even as they face elimination. I'm confident we'll see them bounce back from yesterday's lopsided defeat, however, as they send veteran Charlie Morton to the hill against Noah Syndergaard of the Phillies. Morton struggled in his most recent start against Philadelphia back on September 25th, but the Braves still won that game, right here in the City of Brotherly Love, by a score of 8-7. I'm confident we'll see Morton make the necessary adjustments here and I don't expect him to come unglued the way rookie Spencer Strider did in the third inning yesterday. Syndergaard wasn't necessarily brought over to Philadelphia prior to the trade deadline with big starts like this in mind. He was acquired to give the team some additional depth in the starting rotation. It was always going to be guys like Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola that would be asked to do much of the heavy-lifting. Since joining the Phillies, Syndergaard has posted a 3.66 FIP and 1.31 WHIP, allowing a whopping 10.4 hits per nine innings. He's done a nice job of keeping the ball in the park, but I'm confident in Atlanta's ability to manufacture runs in this one, as it ultimately forces a fifth and deciding game in this series. Take Atlanta (8*). | |||||||
10-15-22 | Iowa State +17 v. Texas | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 71 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Iowa State plus the points over Texas at 12 noon et on Saturday. Iowa State enters this game reeling on the heels of three straight losses while Texas is brimming with confidence following consecutive wins, including a big 49-0 thumping over Oklahoma in last Saturday's Red River Shootout. The Cyclones have taken the last three meetings in this series and you would have to go back eight meetings, all the way to 2014, to find the last time either team scored more than 30 points in this matchup. I don't think getting over the hump against the Cyclones is going to be a slam dunk for the Longhorns here and will gladly grab the generous helping of points with underdog Iowa State. The season started well enough for Iowa State as it posted three straight victories, including an 'upset' win on the road against rival Iowa. The Cyclones ground game was rolling and the defense was firing on all cylinders. The good news is, the defense has continued to play well. It's been the offense that has let them down. I do think we'll see the Cyclones get back to running the football in an effort to shorten this game on Saturday. You can run on the Longhorns, as the likes of Alabama, UTSA, Texas Tech and even Oklahoma have shown. Texas will of course want to run the football as well, but it could be tough sledding against a Cyclones defense that has held all six opponents to 131 or fewer rushing yards on just 3.1 yards per rush. Just two games back we saw Iowa State allow two second quarter touchdowns against Kansas before shutting the Jayhawks out the rest of the way (that was when Kansas was at full strength on offense with a healthy Jalon Daniels and Daniel Hishaw). The Cyclones gave up a touchdown less than three minutes into the game against Kansas State last Saturday but then held the Wildcats out of the end zone for the remainder of the contest. Here, we'll note that Iowa State is a perfect 4-0 ATS the last four times it has come off consecutive ATS losses, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Texas checks in 1-4 ATS the last five times it has come off consecutive SU wins and is just 5-7 ATS the last 12 times it has followed up a 37+ point performance, which is also the situation here. Take Iowa State (8*). | |||||||
10-14-22 | Navy v. SMU UNDER 57.5 | Top | 34-40 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
AAC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Navy and Houston at 7:30 pm et on Friday. While five of the last seven meetings in this series have gone 'over' the total, two of the last three matchups have stayed 'under' including last year's 31-24 SMU victory. Navy exploded for 53 points in last week's blowout win over Tulsa but there's little chance we see it repeat that performance here. The Midshipmen benefited from four Golden Hurricane turnovers in that contest. It's worth noting that prior to that game, Navy had been held to 23 points or less in each of its first four contests this season, including 13 or less in three of those games. If the Midshipmen are going to keep this one competitive on Friday, they're going to need to come up with another strong defensive performance. Note that they've actually held up well on that side of the football this season and particularly of late. Navy enters this contest having yielded just six offensive touchdowns over their last 12 quarters of action. SMU isn't one-dimensional on offense by any means, but it hasn't exactly been setting the world on fire with its ground attack. The Mustangs have attempted 49+ passes in three straight games but that's had more to do with game script than anything else as they've either been trailing or involved in tightly-contested affairs. As a double-digit favorite here, the potential is there for them to lean a little more heavily on their running game to take some of the load off of QB Tanner Mordecai, who has thrown just five touchdowns to go along with five interceptions over the last three games. Navy's gameplan will obviously involve effectively shortening this game but churning out long, time-consuming drives with its triple-option offense. Despite gaining just 177 rushing yards on 53 attempts in last year's meeting, the Midshipmen still won the time of possession battle, holding onto the football for 32+ minutes. It's also worth noting that they 'only' allowed 31 points despite SMU completing 30-of-40 passes for 324 yards. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 4-1 in Navy's last five games following an outright underdog victory, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' has cashed four of the last six times SMU has come off consecutive games totalling 60+ points, which is also the situation here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-14-22 | Montreal -3.5 v. Ottawa | Top | 34-30 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
East Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Montreal minus the points over Ottawa at 7 pm et on Friday. The RedBlacks sold out to stop the run and ultimately pulled off a 24-18 upset victory in Montreal on Monday afternoon (we won with the 'under' in that game). Now it's the Als turn to make the necessary adjustments and get back in the win column with a quick rematch on Friday night in Ottawa. I like their chances of doing just that against a banged-up RedBlacks squad. Ottawa will be without WRs Jaylon Acklin and DeVonte Dedmon after both contributed to Monday's victory in Montreal. That's not the worst news as it will also be missing a pair of key defenders in Patrick Levels and Praise Martin-Oguike. Montreal will obviously have a chip on its shoulder entering this game having dropped two straight meetings against Ottawa. Remember, the Als lost a 38-24 decision at home against the RedBlacks in early September as well. They had no answer for the aforementioned Acklin in that contest as he went off for seven catches and 159 yards. While Ottawa QB Nick Arbuckle has been efficient in those last two matchups against Montreal, he's been more of a 'game manager' than anything else, throwing for 542 yards but just one touchdown. I don't think there's any intimidation factor at play here as Montreal won the lone previous matchup between these two teams in Ottawa by a 40-33 score back in July. Look for the Als to bounce back on Friday. Take Montreal (10*). | |||||||
10-14-22 | Guardians v. Yankees OVER 6 | Top | 4-2 | Push | 0 | 23 h 18 m | Show |
ALDS Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and New York at 1:05 pm et on Friday. PLEASE NOTE: This is the same play that we originally had when the game was scheduled for Thursday night. We missed with the 'over' in Game 1 of this series on Tuesday. I won't hesitate to come right back with the same play on Friday, however, as we work with an even lower posted total. Nestor Cortes has enjoyed a tremendous campaign. He hasn't pitched since October 1st though - nearly two weeks ago - and I can't help but feel there's nowhere to go but down after he allowed just one hit in each of his last two outings, and having not allowed a single home run over his last five starts. Note that the Guardians will be seeing Cortes for the third time this season. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 21-12 with Cleveland seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent where it scored one run or less this season, with that situation producing an average total of 9.3 runs. The Guardians will hand the ball to their ace Shane Bieber after he was lights out in his lone Wild Card round start against the Rays last week. While Bieber's numbers are tremendous, I feel like every time I watch him pitch, he's laboring. I just don't find anything seems to come all that easy for the admittedly 'elite' right-hander. The Yankees will obviously make opposing pitchers work for everything. They average 5.1 runs per game against right-handed starting pitching and 5.2 rpg at home this season. Interestingly, the 'over' is a perfect 4-0 with Bieber starting in an underdog role priced between +125 and +175 this season, as is the case here. The 'over' is also 4-1 in Yankees home games where the total is set at 6.0 or 6.5 this season. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-13-22 | Blackhawks v. Golden Knights UNDER 6.5 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Vegas at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. The Blackhawks were involved in a relatively high-scoring game in Colorado last night, dropping a 5-2 decision against the defending Stanley Cup champion Avalanche. That was a wild contest, with six of the seven goals coming by way of the power play, including four of Colorado's five tallies. At least credit the Blackhawks, who most have pegged as likely bottom-feeders in the Western Conference, for at least holding the Avs to just one even-strength goal. While the 'Hawks did manage to score two goals in that game, it's undoubtedly going to be a slog for them offensively. Note that they actually fired only 17 shots on goal in their season-opener. Now, playing the second of back-to-back nights against a Vegas squad that will be looking to tighten things up after yielding three goals in Los Angeles two nights ago, I look for Chicago to struggle here. We won with the 'over' in the Golden Knights season-opener but were certainly fortunate to cash that ticket as it was a 1-1 game early in the third period before the floodgates opened. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 13-4 with the Knights playing at home off a road game that saw both teams score 3+ goals, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of just 5.0 goals. That record goes back to when Vegas joined the league. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
10-13-22 | Washington Commanders v. Bears | Top | 12-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
NFC Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington over Chicago at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. The Commanders have fallen on hard times, dropping four straight games since opening the season with a 28-22 win over the Jaguars. They've also faced a tough slate, however, starting with a trip to Detroit to face what was a full-strength Lions team at the time followed by a home game against the still-undefeated Eagles, a road game against a better than expected Cowboys team and finally a home date against an improving Titans squad. Here, Washington catches a break as it faces Chicago on a short week, with the Bears coming off an emotionally and physically draining 29-22 division loss against the Vikings on Sunday. The Bears do check in a perfect 2-0 at home this season but those victories came in a monsoon against the 49ers in Week 1 and over a then-winless Texans squad in Week 3. Here, they'll host a Commanders squad that checks in a perfect 4-0 ATS the last four times it has come off four consecutive losses and a perfect 2-0 ATS the last two times it has come off three straight games in which it scored 17 or fewer points, as is the case here. I don't like the regression we've seen from the Bears defense in recent weeks. They've been getting gashed by opposing running games and that's an area I feel the Commanders can exploit as well. Chicago has already allowed three of its five opponents to rack up 175+ rushing yards this season. Offensively, Bears QB Justin Fields is coming off one of the best games of his young career but I question whether he can follow it up here, noting that they had a considerable advantage against a weak Vikings defense that doesn't stop the run and didn't really have anyone that could match up against Chicago's lone true receiving threat in Darnell Mooney. Washington has quietly played well defensively after a tough start to the campaign. It has held its last three opponents to just 2.6 yards per rush. The only opponent to throw for more than 260 yards against the Commanders this season was Jalen Hurts and the Eagles. Over the last two games, Washington has held the opposition to just 30-of-52 passing for 353 yards. While it's true those two games came against Cooper Rush and Ryan Tannehill, Justin Fields is generally only asked to be a 'game manager' as well. Note that the Bears are just 5-10 ATS in their last 15 games following an ATS victory, which is the situation here. They're also 2-5 ATS in their last seven contests following a loss against a division opponent. We'll plug our noses and back the Commanders here, noting that there's an outside chance we could see Ron Rivera finally lift QB Carson Wentz for experienced backup Taylor Heineke should Wentz get off to a poor start. That would only work in our favor in my opinion. Take Washington (10*). | |||||||
10-13-22 | Baylor v. West Virginia UNDER 54.5 | 40-43 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Baylor and West Virginia at 7 pm et on Thursday. Baylor enters this contest off a 36-25 road loss against Oklahoma State on October 1st. Off its lone previous defeat this season it responded by absolutely manhandling Texas State the next week, yielding just seven points in a lopsided victory. While it certainly faces a tougher bounce-back spot on the road against West Virginia this week, I'm confident we'll see the Bears defense rise to the occasion. West Virginia scored just 20 points in a blowout loss at Texas last time out, failing to score in that game until the closing seconds of the first half - after it had already fallen behind 28-0. It did add two more touchdowns in the fourth quarter but that was with the Longhorns letting down their guard after leading by a 35-7 score. Here, I'm expecting a much tighter contested affair, as indicated by the short pointspread. Note that two games back, we also saw the Mountaineers offense struggle to get going against Virginia Tech, failing to reach the end zone until the final minute of the first half in that contest as well. Against a Bears defense that will certainly be in a foul mood off a loss, things won't get any easier here. While Baylor did ultimately put up a respectable 25 points in that aforementioned loss to Oklahoma State, it's worth noting that it was held out of the end zone until nearly three minutes into the third quarter, and that was after the Cowboys had jumped ahead 23-3. Things opened up a bit for the Bears from there but again, Oklahoma State was playing with a considerable lead, a game script I don't envision unfolding in this one. We'll note that the 'under' is 8-3 in Baylor's last 11 games with the total set between 49.5 and 56 points, as is the case here at the time of writing. The 'under' also checks in 6-3 in West Virginia's last nine contests when following a road loss, which is also the situation here. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
10-13-22 | Temple +23.5 v. Central Florida | Top | 13-70 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 58 m | Show |
AAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Temple plus the points over Central Florida at 7 pm et on Thursday. Temple plays about as ugly a brand of football as you'll find but it does succeed ATS, having covered in three of its five games so far this season. Here, I do think the Owls can run a little bit and ultimately move the chains and possess the football long enough to stay inside the pointspread. Temple has dropped each of the last five meetings in this series, failing to defeat UCF since 2016. It would be easy for the Knights to overlook the Owls coming off a big win over SMU and looking ahead to an away showdown against East Carolina next week. While UCF did prevail by a lopsided 41-19 score against a good SMU squad last week, that game ultimately turned on a couple of third quarter Knights touchdowns and from there the Mustangs came unglued trying to rally and UCF extended the winning margin. It wasn't until less than six minutes remaining in the first half before the Knights reached the end zone in that game. Two games back against Georgia Tech, UCF didn't score an offensive touchdown until nearly five minutes into the fourth quarter. Temple has turned the football over 13 times through five games this season yet hasn't given up more than 30 points in a single contest. I do think we'll see the Owls go a little more conservative offensively in this one, simply looking to salvage some confidence from this two-game away set after a three-touchdown loss at Memphis last time out. On the flip side, the Knights might want to scale back dual-threat QB John Rhys Plumlee a little as he has led the team in rushing in all but one of its five games this season and it will certainly need his exploits at full-go down the stretch. Here, we'll note that UCF checks in 1-8 ATS in its last nine games following a victory by 21+ points and 2-10 ATS in its last 12 contests after scoring 37+ points in its previous game. Look for the Knights to 'manage' this game and it ultimately comes at the expense of an ATS victory. Take Temple (10*). | |||||||
10-12-22 | UL-Lafayette v. Marshall UNDER 47.5 | Top | 23-13 | Win | 100 | 31 h 10 m | Show |
Sun Belt Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Louisiana and Marshall at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday. You've heard the saying that when a coach says he has two capable quarterbacks that really means he has no capable quarterbacks. That might be a bit harsh but I think it rings true with the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns this season. Ben Wooldridge and Chandler Fields have split time under center with neither showing the ability to take over the reins entirely. I do think the Ragin' Cajuns have a capable enough offense led by RB Chris Smith to at least move the chains with some consistency and churn out some long drives in this midweek affair. I'm just not convinced they can finish a lot of drives with seven's on the board. In fact, Louisiana has scored just one offensive touchdown over its last seven quarters of football and that's despite its last two contests coming against anything but defensive powerhouses in South Alabama and Louisiana-Monroe. Marshall's biggest issue a year ago and ultimately the biggest reason it dropped a 36-21 decision in its matchup against Louisiana was its lack of run defense. It has shown improvement in that regard, however, this season. Only one opponent has gained more than 100 yards on the ground against the Thundering Herd this season and that was Notre Dame, picking up 130 rushing yards but needing 37 attempts to get there. Offensively, Marshall has topped out at 28 points in regulation time in four games (it reached that number twice) since opening the campaign with a 55-3 rout of FCS squad Norfolk State. RB Khalal Laborn has proven to be a big get for the Herd, running for 100+ yards in all five games this season. I do think Marshall will look to manage his workload a little bit moving forward though, noting that he's racked up 30+ carries in two straight and three of his last four games. Louisiana has held opponents to just 3.8 yards per rush this season but did turn in one bad game against the run, that coming against Louisiana-Monroe two contests back. The Warhawks rushing numbers were boosted by one 75-yard run - outside of that they actually gained just 152 yards on their other 38 attempts. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-12-22 | Phillies v. Braves -135 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
NLDS Game of the Year. My selection is on Atlanta over Philadelphia at 4:35 pm et on Wednesday. It's not a difficult decision to back the Braves against the red hot Phillies in Game 2 of this NLDS on Wednesday afternoon. Atlanta has one of the most underrated starting pitchers in baseball on the mound in 21-game winner Kyle Wright. While I'm not looking to make a habit of fading Phillies starter Zack Wheeler, I'll make an exception here. The Braves are 18-3 in their last 21 games after losing three of their last four contests, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 1.9 runs on average in that spot. They're also 22-3 as a favorite with Wright starting this season, outscoring the opposition by 2.2 runs on average in that situation. Take Atlanta (10*). | |||||||
10-12-22 | Blue Jackets v. Hurricanes OVER 6 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Columbus and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. PLEASE NOTE: Elvis Merzlikins is a late scratch for the Blue Jackets due to illness. Daniil Tarasov will start in goal in his place. That obviously works in our favor but the total will likely move to 6.5 as a result. I'll stick with the play. I like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair as the Blue Jackets head to Raleigh to face the Hurricanes on Wednesday. Columbus made a big splash in the offseason, landing perhaps the biggest free agent prize in Johnny Gaudreau. While there's not a ton of depth up front, I do like the way the Jackets top two lines shape up and feel this is a team that will get involved in plenty of high-scoring affairs this season given the deficiencies at the back-end. Watch for second-year right-winger Yehor Chinakhov, who had a terrific preseason, scoring six goals in seven games. Columbus' defensive corps ranks among the worst in the league while Elvis Merzlikins has never really lived up to expectations between the pipes. The hope was that Merzlikins would serve as an equalizer of sorts last season but he ended up logging a 3.22 GAA and .907 save percentage in 59 games. The Hurricanes don't necessarily get better defensively by adding Brent Burns, but he does give them a lift offensively. Burns contributed three goals and two assists in two preseason contests. Of course, it's the Hurricanes depth up front that is really the envy of the league. Carolina has three forward lines that can threaten to score on every shift - something that just can't be said for most teams. Goaltender Frederik Andersen is coming off a career year but I question whether he can duplicate that performance this season. Note that he allowed four goals on just 31 shots in two preseason appearances. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-12-22 | Bruins v. Capitals -137 | 5-2 | Loss | -137 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington over Boston at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. We're being asked to lay a reasonable price to back the Capitals as they host the Bruins on Wednesday night. Boston took two of three meetings between these two teams last season but I look for a different story to unfold on Wednesday at least. The Bruins fired head coach Bruce Cassidy at the end of last season, hiring previously exiled Stars coach Jim Montgomery in a bit of a perplexing move. Regardless, the Bruins start the campaign at less than full strength with Brad Marchand, Charlie McAvoy and Matt Grzelcyk sidelined. The Caps won't have the services of veteran Nick Backstrom or Tom Wilson to start the season but I like the additions they made with Connor Brown joining the top line with Alex Ovechkin and Dylan Strome centering the second line. I'm anticipating somewhat of a sophomore slump for Bruins goaltender Jeremy Swayman while the Caps make the move to Darcy Kuemper, who is only a few months removed from a Stanley Cup title with the Avalanche. While that move could be questioned, I do think the Caps have enough firepower to outlast the B's on opening night. Take Washington (8*). | |||||||
10-11-22 | Golden Knights v. Kings OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Vegas and Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. Neither of these teams did anything to upgrade their situation between the pipes with the Golden Knights forced to go with the duo of Logan Thompson and Laurent Brossoit with Robin Lehner sidelined for the season due to injury and the Kings sticking with veteran Jonathan Quick and backup Cal Petersen. I do think both sides are fairly set offensively, with the Knights adding Phil Kessel in the offseason and the Kings making a big splash with the addition of Kevin Fiala to provide some much-needed scoring punch. The Knights have built out their forward depth to the point that guys like Jonathan Marchessault and William Karlsson now reside on the third line. With three capable scoring lines up front, not to mention a fourth line that includes Arthur Kaliyev, who performed exceptionally well during the preseason, the Kings boast a lot more offensive pop than we've seen in recent years. Last season's four matchups between these two teams totalled 8, 9, 7 and 6 goals and five of the last six meetings here in Los Angeles have gone 'over' the total. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-11-22 | Lightning v. Rangers UNDER 5.5 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and New York at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. This will be the 10th meeting between the Lightning and Rangers in the last 10+ months after the two teams did battle in the playoffs last June. Of the previous nine meetings over that stretch, seven of those contests stayed 'under' the total. We're likely to see a goaltending matchup of two of the best in the world in Andrei Vasilevskiy and Igor Shesterkin, the reigning Vezina Trophy winner. Vasilevskiy got in limited work in the preseason, allowing just five goals on 70 shots. Shesterkin wasn't quite as sharp, yielding six goals on 55 shots but I'm confident he can 'flip the switch' now that the games count for real. I do feel that the Lightning continue to weaken offensively with each passing year, losing key contributor Ondrej Palat this offseason. Defensively, they're still set with Hedman and Sergachev leading the way. You could make the case that the Bolts third defensive pairing of Haydn Fleury and Phillipe Myers could be the top pairing on several teams. Expect goals to come at a premium on Tuesday. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
10-11-22 | Guardians v. Yankees OVER 6.5 | 1-4 | Loss | -125 | 12 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and New York at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Guardians' Wild Card series against the Rays saw just four runs scored in 24 innings. I expect a much different story to unfold as Cleveland moves on to face the Yankees in the Bronx on Tuesday. Gerrit Cole will get the start for New York. The Guardians are certainly familiar with him as he's made 10 career starts against them. Only once has Cole completely shut them down - that performance coming in a game back in April of this year. Keep in mind, that contest still totalled 12 runs. High-scoring games have been the norm when Cole faces Cleveland with four of his last five outings against it reaching at least 12 runs. Cal Quantrill will counter for the Guardians. He faced the Yankees just once previously this season and that was his only career outing against them. New York had little trouble in that contest, reaching Quantrill for three earned runs on six hits while striking out only two times and walking on three occasions over 6 1/3 innings. It's worth noting that the Guardians have been a considerably higher-scoring club on the road compared to at home this season, averaging 4.6 runs per game compared to their 4.3 rpg season scoring average. Likewise for the Yankees at home where they've averaged 5.2 rpg compared to their season scoring average of 5.0 rpg. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
10-10-22 | Raiders +7 v. Chiefs | Top | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
AFC West Game of the Year. My selection is on Las Vegas plus the points over Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Monday. The Raiders, while coming off a much-needed victory over the Broncos last Sunday, are still watching their season slip away with the prospect of falling a full three games back of the AFC West-leading Chiefs on Monday night. I think there's a better chance of them avoiding that fate than most seem to believe. Here, we get Las Vegas playing with triple-revenge having lost the last three meetings in this series since posting a stunning 40-32 win over the Chiefs at Arrowhead back on October 11, 2020 - almost two years to the day. To me, the Raiders woes aren't all that difficult to fix. They've been settling for far too many field goals rather than touchdowns - case in point, last week against the Broncos they kicked four field goals but still managed to produce 32 points. This is actually a more favorable matchup for the Raiders passing game after going up against one of the best secondaries in football last week. I'm confident that will lead to a couple more touchdown drives. Getting slot WR Hunter Renfrow back certainly helps as well after he thrived in a pair of matchups against the Chiefs last season. The Chiefs are coming off a nationally-televised blowout win over the Buccaneers last Sunday. That was a true 'get-right' spot after suffering a 20-17 loss to the Colts the week previous (we won with Indianapolis in that game). Kansas City dropped the cash in its lone previous home game this season and is now 0-5 ATS in its last five home games when priced as a favorite between 3.5 and 7 points, as is the case here. Interestingly, the Chiefs are also 1-6 ATS the last seven times they've come off a wild, high-scoring game where both teams scored 30+ points, which is also the situation here. The Raiders are 7-5 ATS in their last 12 contests as a road underdog. Take Las Vegas (10*). | |||||||
10-10-22 | Ottawa v. Montreal UNDER 47.5 | Top | 24-18 | Win | 100 | 4 h 26 m | Show |
East Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Ottawa and Montreal at 1 pm et on Monday. We won with the 'over' in the RedBlacks blowout loss against the Lions last week but I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'under' as they stay on the road to face the Alouettes on Canadian Thanksgiving Monday. Ottawa was in an extremely tough spot last week, playing on a short week after a physically-draining affair against the Argos in which they coughed the football up six times and dropped a 45-14 decision. Not surprisingly, we saw Ottawa's defense look tired against the Lions, ultimately giving up 34 points on over 450 total yards of offense. Here, I do look for that Ottawa defense to regain its footing against a limited Alouettes offense that has gone run-heavy in recent weeks. Even two games back, when Montreal made good on 26-of-35 passes for 244 yards, without turning the ball over once, it still only managed to score 23 points in a win over the Tiger-Cats. It's a similar story for the RedBlacks offense. Two games back they completed 33-of-54 passes for a whopping 368 yards but could only muster 15 points in that aforementioned blowout loss against the Argos. In fact, you would have to go back four games to find the last time Ottawa scored more than 19 points in a game and that came in a wild 38-24 win over these same Alouettes right here in Montreal. Needless to say, the Als have had this rematch circled and I certainly don't expect them to turn in another flat defensive performance as they look to keep their three-game winning streak rolling. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 9-2 with the RedBlacks coming off five or six losses in their last seven games over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of just 41.0 points. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-09-22 | Cowboys +5.5 v. Rams | 22-10 | Win | 100 | 51 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Los Angeles at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I think it's reasonable to question whether the Rams offense is broken at this point. Largely due to injuries on the offensive line but also as a result of lukewarm play-calling from Sean McVay, the Rams looked punchless and very much like a one-tricky pony - that trick being Cooper Kupp - in Monday's lopsided defeat at the hands of the 49ers. QB Matt Stafford hasn't looked right all season and is always on the verge of injury facing relentless pressure due to his makeshift o-line's ineffectiveness. Note that even on Monday, when Stafford attempted 48 passes (completing 32 of them) he still threw for only 200 yards. Defensively, the Rams are also dealing with a number of injuries and while they may get some players back this week, the prospect of everyone being back at full strength isn't all that high playing on a short week. Los Angeles' poor tackling was evident all night long against the 49ers on Monday. Only San Francisco's conservative play-calling (with its own o-line injury issues) helped keep things from getting completely out of hand. The Cowboys roll into this showdown on the heels of three straight wins. QB Cooper Rush isn't being asked to do too much but he's been serviceable as an NFL starter, leading Dallas to four victories and not a single defeat going back to last season. Dallas regained the services of WR Michael Gallup last week and he quickly got on the scoreboard with a touchdown. The Cowboys receiving corps is starting to come a little more into focus with CeeDee Lamb, Noah Brown (who has been better than expected) and Gallup. Dallas is now 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games. It's worth noting that the Rams have gone a miserable 25-43 ATS in their last 68 home games with the total set between 42.5 and 45 points. The projected low-scoring nature of this game favors grabbing the points with the underdog Cowboys. Take Dallas (8*). | |||||||
10-09-22 | 49ers v. Panthers +7 | 37-15 | Loss | -130 | 51 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Carolina plus the points over San Francisco at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. The 49ers picked up a statement win against the division-rival and defending Super Bowl champion Rams on Monday Night Football but I look for them to get all they can handle against the Panthers in Carolina on Sunday. This is a tough spot at the best of times as the Niners hit the road on a short week to face a Panthers squad that's fresh off a home loss against the Cardinals last Sunday. While the Panthers are 1-3 to start the campaign, they've been competitive in all four games with two of their three losses coming by three points or less. With RB Christian McCaffrey (who I'll admit has been quiet so far this season) and a capable defense led by a terrific pass rush, I suspect Carolina will rarely be blown out this season. There's certainly a path for the Panthers to effectively shorten this game with their ground attack and let their defense take care of the rest. In what projects to be a low-scoring affair (the total sits in the high-30's at the time of writing), I'm comfortable grabbing the points, noting that the Panthers check in a long-term 60-39 ATS when coming off a double-digit loss, as is the case here. The 49ers not only lost Trent Williams to injury but his backup, Connor McKivitz, who had been filling in admirably, is now out until December as well. I expect to see the Niners continue to focus on running the football and getting the ball out of Jimmy Garoppolo's hand quickly when they do elect to throw it. Again, that leads to the potential of long, clock-churning drives that help our cause with the points in our back pocket here. Here, we'll note that the 49ers are 12-28 ATS in their last 40 games when playing on the road after allowing fewer than 10 points in their previous game and 22-39 ATS in their last 61 contests away from home off a victory by 14 points or more, which is also the situation here. Take Carolina (8*). | |||||||
10-09-22 | Falcons v. Bucs -9.5 | Top | 15-21 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 28 m | Show |
NFC Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Tampa Bay minus the points over Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday. We've been high on the Falcons lately and why not as they've gone a perfect 4-0 ATS so far this season, including consecutive outright underdog wins over Seattle and Cleveland. I think they're in for a rude awakening on Sunday, however, as they travel to Tampa to face a Buccaneers squad that finds itself in a blow-up spot off consecutive home losses against the Packers and Chiefs. It's not often teams get to play three straight games at home but that's the case for the Bucs on Sunday. They're seemingly catching the Falcons at the right time as well as Atlanta will be without Swiss Army knife RB Cordarrelle Patterson. That's not to mention the fact that TE Kyle Pitts is banged-up as well - likely to play but not likely to be at 100%. Of course, Pitts has been disappointing apart from his strong blocking this year, failing to live up to the hype in his sophomore campaign, so far at least. Lost in the Falcons competitive start to the season is the fact that their offense has been extremely limited and one-dimensional. Last week, QB Marcus Mariota completed just 7-of-19 passes for 131 yards against a Browns pass defense that had been struggling (not to mention a pass rush that was missing Myles Garrett and JaDeveon Clowney). Since completing 20 passes in Week 1 against New Orleans, Mariota has totalled 17 or less completions in each of the last three games. We know that the Bucs can stop the run and that leaves the Falcons in a tough spot should they fall behind early in this one. Tampa Bay's offense was forced to throw the gameplan out the window after digging an early hole of its own against Kansas City last Sunday night. In fact, the Bucs have run the football only 20 times in the last week as game script has certainly worked against them. Here, we can anticipate a much different story unfolding as the Falcons have done little to slow opposing ground attacks, yielding just shy of 5.0 yards per rush. And let's not forget that the Tampa Bay offense got most of its key parts back last week with Mike Evans leading the charge with two touchdown receptions. Atlanta's opponents have been filling up the boxscore through the air, completing 23, 27, 32 and 21 passes through four games - despite combining for seven turnovers short-circuiting drive-after-drive. The Bucs had little trouble in this matchup last year, winning both meetings by a combined 78-42 margin. Here, we'll note that the Falcons check in a woeful 6-16 ATS the last 22 times they've come off an outright win as a home underdog, as is the situation here. Take Tampa Bay (10*). | |||||||
10-09-22 | Seahawks v. Saints UNDER 46 | Top | 32-39 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 36 m | Show |
NFC Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and New Orleans at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Seahawks enter this game off consecutive 'over' results, including last week's 93-point shootout in Detroit. I expect a much different story to unfold on Sunday as they stay on the road to face the Saints at the Superdome in New Orleans. I think both teams have an interest in effectively shortening this game as their best chance at coming away victorious. For the Seahawks, they're essentially playing with 'house money' off to a surprising 2-2 start and having already won the front-half of this two-game road set. They've been throwing the football far more than most expected given head coach Pete Carroll's penchant for 'establishing the run' at all costs. Here, I think we'll see Seattle get back to that run-first gameplan with RB Rashaad Penny performing exceptionally well. The problem here is that the Saints defense is capable of smothering opposing ground attacks and I'm not convinced the Seahawks passing game can do enough to keep them honest here. Note that only four other pass defenses have held opposing quarterbacks to a lower completion percentage than the Saints this season. Offensively, New Orleans is limited, due in large part to a number of key injuries. QB Jameis Winston isn't expected to play meaning the offense will once again be left in the hands of veteran Andy Dalton. Returning from London, I don't believe the Saints have any interest in getting involved in an exhausting shootout here. Look for them to focus on churning out long, clock-eating drives with a focus on running the football with Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram. The Seahawks have been helpless against the run this season, yielding well north of 5.0 yards per rush but the Saints ground attack has appeared anything but explosive so we could see a bit of a stagnant battle here. Note that last year's meeting between these two teams totalled just 23 points, easily staying 'under' the closing total of 41.5. We're working with a considerably higher total here and I don't believe it's warranted. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-09-22 | Bears v. Vikings OVER 44 | Top | 22-29 | Win | 100 | 47 h 56 m | Show |
NFC North Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Minnesota at 1 pm et on Sunday. I expected the Vikings to be a strong 'over' play with Kevin O'Connell taking over head coaching duties from Mike Zimmer this season, not to mention Minnesota's leaky defense. It took a few weeks but now we've seen the Vikings get involved in consecutive shootouts, loosely-speaking, resulting in back-to-back 'overs' against Detroit and New Orleans (in London). Here, I expect another higher-scoring than expected matchup against the Bears in friendly offensive conditions indoors in Minnesota. The Bears offense has been putrid so far this season but it has also faced some tough defensive opponents, in difficult settings, with the exception of a game against Houston in which it scored a season-high 23 points. Here, there's reason for optimism as the Bears running game should feast on a Vikings run defense that has been virtually non-existent this season. QB Justin Fields continues to be under constant duress but there will be plays to be made against a below-average Vikings secondary in this game, especially as game-script will likely favor the Bears going a little more aggressive playing from behind. It should be all systems go for the Vikings offense as they look to tee off on a Bears defense that has done little to slow opposing running or passing games this season. Chicago checks in allowing 4.8 yards per rush, setting this up as a blow-up spot for Vikes RB Dalvin Cook. The Bears could be in dire straits trying to defend Vikings WR Justin Jefferson, who checks in off a dominant performance in London, noting that CB Jaylon Johnson is questionable to play again this week as he recovers from a quad injury that has kept him out of the last two games. Note that last year's matchup between these two teams in Minnesota totalled 48 points. The 'over' is 9-1 the last 10 times Minnesota has come off an ATS loss, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 55.0 points. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-08-22 | Texas A&M v. Alabama UNDER 51.5 | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 103 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Texas A&M and Alabama at 8 pm et on Saturday. I think both of these teams have a keen interest in getting this one over with as quickly as possible, albeit for much different reasons. For Texas A&M, it's only legitimate shot at staging another upset win over Alabama comes by keeping offensive drives alive with its ground game and effectively shortening this contest. Job number one for the Aggies will be taking care of the football after a slew of miscues led to a blowout loss at Mississippi State last Saturday (we won with the Bulldogs in that game). It's telling that last week's setback was A&M's worst defensive performance of the season as it really wasn't all that bad in that regard, holding Mississippi State off the scoreboard until nearly nine minutes into the second quarter and not allowing an offensive touchdown over an 18-minute stretch from the last minute of the second quarter until the third minute of the fourth quarter. For Alabama, it simply wants to pick up a win and move on to next week's critical showdown against currently undefeated Tennessee. After getting an injury scare with QB Bryce Young last week - but still exploding for 49 points in a rout of Arkansas - I think we see the Crimson Tide settle things down here. After a strong first half, Alabama played far too loose defensively in the third quarter of last week's game, something I believe we'll see it make amends for back in Tuscaloosa this week. Note that the 'under' is 34-18 the last 52 times the Tide have returned home following a road win in-conference, as is the case here. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
10-08-22 | Air Force -10 v. Utah State | Top | 27-34 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 40 m | Show |
MWC Game of the Month. My selection is on Air Force minus the points over Utah State at 7 pm et on Saturday. I really like the way this one sets up for Air Force. The Falcons are coming off an ugly 13-10 victory over Navy last Saturday. Bettors lined up to back Air Force in that contest and got burned as it never came close to sniffing out a cover. Here, I think the wrong thing to do would be to back off of the Falcons. They're in a smash spot as they make the trip to Logan to take on Utah State. The Aggies are off to a 1-4 start and while they did put up more of a fight than most expected, they still dropped a 38-26 decision against BYU last Thursday. Utah State jumped out to an early 7-0 start in that contest with surprising starting QB Cooper Legas clearly catching the BYU defense off guard. From there, however, it managed just two more touchdowns the rest of the way with one of those coming in the game's final two minutes when the outcome was all but decided. Just two games back, when the Aggies were fresh off an embarrassing 35-7 home loss against FCS squad Weber State and appeared to be in prime bounce-back position, they gave up three UNLV touchdowns over a seven-minute stretch early in the contest and ultimately lost by 10 points at home. We've already successfully backed Air Force twice this season, at home against Colorado and Nevada, while also successfully fading it in its lone previous loss - a stunning 17-14 weeknight defeat in Wyoming back on September 16th. I'm not going to knock the Falcons over last week's tight decision against a struggling Navy squad as you never really know how those 'Commander-in-Chief Trophy' games will go (just ask Army about its game against Navy last December). Air Force has undoubtedly had this game circled after dropping a wild 49-45 loss against Utah State in last year's meeting. That was a much stronger Aggies squad, on both sides of the football. I have little confidence in Utah State's ability to get back in this game should it fall behind as Air Force controls the football, controls the clock and ultimately controls the outcome. Take Air Force (10*). | |||||||
10-08-22 | Edmonton Elks v. Winnipeg UNDER 51 | 11-48 | Loss | -110 | 59 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Edmonton and Winnipeg at 7 pm et on Saturday. We'll back the Elks and the 'under' in this contest as I expect points to come at a premium, similar to the most recent meeting between these two teams when the Blue Bombers prevailed by a 24-10 score back on July 22nd. You would have to go back eight games to find the last time Edmonton allowed 300+ passing yards in a game. Meanwhile, the Blue Bombers have yielded 330+ passing yards in each of their last two games but draw a 'get right' spot defensively against the offensively-challenged Elks here. Note that Winnipeg has held all but one of its seven opponents to 20 points or less at home this season. That being said, the Elks have limited five of their last six opponents to 26 points or less during a strong stretch since late August. They've also gained 100+ rushing yards in each of their last three games and will look to effectively shorten proceedings for their best shot at an upset win here. Note that the 'under' is 22-10 the last 32 times the Blue Bombers have played at home after winning three out of their last four contests, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 49.7 points. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
10-08-22 | Edmonton Elks +13 v. Winnipeg | 11-48 | Loss | -110 | 59 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Edmonton plus the points over Winnipeg at 7 pm et on Saturday. We'll back the Elks and the 'under' in this contest as I expect points to come at a premium, similar to the most recent meeting between these two teams when the Blue Bombers prevailed by a 24-10 score back on July 22nd. You would have to go back eight games to find the last time Edmonton allowed 300+ passing yards in a game. Meanwhile, the Blue Bombers have yielded 330+ passing yards in each of their last two games but draw a 'get right' spot defensively against the offensively-challenged Elks here. Note that Winnipeg has held all but one of its seven opponents to 20 points or less at home this season. That being said, the Elks have limited five of their last six opponents to 26 points or less during a strong stretch since late August. They've also gained 100+ rushing yards in each of their last three games and will look to effectively shorten proceedings for their best shot at an upset win here. Note that the 'under' is 22-10 the last 32 times the Blue Bombers have played at home after winning three out of their last four contests, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 49.7 points. Take Edmonton (8*). | |||||||
10-08-22 | Mariners v. Blue Jays -150 | Top | 10-9 | Loss | -150 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
A.L. Wild Card Game of the Year. My selection is on Toronto over Seattle at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. The Blue Jays offense was non-existent against Mariners ace Luis Castillo yesterday, falling by a 4-0 score in a game that was never competitive. Here, I look for Toronto to answer back and salvage its season with a victory behind Kevin Gausman on Saturday afternoon. It may be surprising to some that Gausman actually led the league in FIP with a 2.38 this season. He did allow 3.71 runs per nine innings but that's still better than his counterpart on Saturday, Robbie Ray's 3.81 mark. Gausman didn't necessarily have his best stuff in his lone outing against Seattle this season, allowing two earned runs over five innings back in mid-May, but he does own a career 2.64 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in seven outings against the Mariners. Note that Ray checks in sporting a 4.17 FIP on the campaign. Note that Toronto has outscored opponents by 0.5 runs on average when playing at home off a loss this season (32-game sample size). The Blue Jays are also a long-term 309-263 (+55 net games) after scoring one run or less in their previous contest, as is the case here. Take Toronto (10*). | |||||||
10-08-22 | Ole Miss -18 v. Vanderbilt | 52-28 | Win | 100 | 123 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on Ole Miss minus the points over Vanderbilt at 4 pm et on Saturday. We faded Ole Miss last Saturday and were rewarded with a Kentucky ATS cover in a 22-19 Rebels victory. For the first time this season the Rebels offense looked ordinary as it didn't reach the end zone again after scoring its second touchdown of the game with just under a minute remaining in the first quarter. This is a blow-up spot for the Ole Miss offense as it heads to Nashville to face Vanderbilt. The Commodores check in 3-2 on the season but inconsistency has been their calling card. I just don't think they're ever going to regain the form that saw them score 63 points in their Week 0 rout of Hawaii. It's easy to forget as they didn't play last week but the last time we saw the Commodores they were blasted 55-3 by Alabama. Vandy has now gone five consecutive quarters without scoring a touchdown. I don't like the way its quarterback situation has been handled this season as dual-threat QB Mike Wright has been benched for A.J. Swann. Save for one-off career games from RB Ray Wright and WR Will Sheppard against Northern Illinois, the Commodores offense really hasn't been anything special. It's a different story for Ole Miss. As I mentioned, the Rebels didn't have their best offensive performance last Saturday but that was against a tough Kentucky defense. Two games back, the Rebels had a stretch where they scored four touchdowns in 13 minutes in the second quarter against Tulsa. They also scored six touchdowns in the first three quarters in a road win over Georgia Tech - a similar opponent to Vandy - back on September 17th. On the flip side, in its last 16 quarters of football, the Rebels defense has allowed just six touchdowns. I see this as a 'squash match' for visiting Ole Miss. Take Ole Miss (8*). | |||||||
10-08-22 | BC v. Toronto OVER 48.5 | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between B.C. and Toronto at 4 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'over' in the Lions blowout win over the RedBlacks and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play this week as B.C. heads to Toronto to challenge the Argos. Everything has been clicking offensively for the Lions this season and I don't see the Argos defense standing in their way here. Note that even two games back when Toronto forced a whopping six turnovers against a bad RedBlacks offense, it still gave up 15 points. Last week against Calgary the Argos were ripped for 161 yards on just 24 rushing attempts. The good news is, the Argos offense can score, particularly here at home. Prior to last week's ugly 29-2 defeat they had put up 24+ points in four consecutive games. Seeking revenge for a 44-3 loss in B.C. earlier this season I'm confident we'll see Toronto show up and show out offensively in this one, noting that the 'over' is 8-1 the last nine times it has come off two ATS wins in its last three contests, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 51.7 points in that spot. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
10-08-22 | Utah v. UCLA UNDER 64.5 | Top | 32-42 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 33 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and UCLA at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We won with UCLA against Washington last week as that matchup set up well for the Bruins to stay undefeated while also ending the Huskies perfect run in what turned out to be a wild, high-scoring game. It's a much different story this week as I like the way this one sets up as a lower-scoring affair as the visiting Utes aim to deliver their fifth straight victory since dropping their opener at Florida. That trip to The Swamp to face the Gators in Week 1 was a tough one to be sure. Often teams just aren't ready to get punched in the mouth right out of the gate and I think that was the case with Utah - even though that result against Florida certainly could have gone either way. Since then, the Utes have been nothing short of dominant. Over their last four games they've allowed a grand total of four touchdowns. The only touchdown scores they allowed against San Diego State and Arizona State came when those games were already long decided, up 35-0 in the closing minutes of the fourth quarter against the Aztecs and 34-6 as the clock wound down against the Sun Devils. Last week, Utah gave up a touchdown in the first six minutes of the game against Oregon State but that was it as far as touchdowns go the rest of the way as the Utes cruised to a 42-16 victory. I am somewhat concerned about the season-ending injury to Utah TE Brant Kuithe. He was a big part of what the Utes do on offense and certainly added to the comfort level of QB Cam Rising. Kuithe led the Utes in receiving in last year's meeting with UCLA. That's not to say Utah can't be explosive without him - we still saw it put up 40+ points in last week's win over Oregon State, but his absence is notable to be sure. While UCLA doesn't shy away from shootouts often, I think it might be well-served to employ more of a clock-control offensive gameplan here, knowing its own defensive deficiencies. Keep in mind, this matchup went Utah's way by a 44-24 score last year. Forcing nine turnovers over its last four games, UCLA has been gaining plenty of extra offensive possessions but Utah isn't likely to be as generous, noting that it has turned the football over just four times in five games this season. I expect to see both teams churn out some long, clock-eating drives over the course of this game. While the Bruins defense has struggled for extended stretches, we also have to give it credit for last week's win over Washington as it gave up a touchdown in the game's first five minutes but then held the Huskies out of the end zone until there were just over five minutes remaining in the third quarter. The Bruins did give up two more touchdowns in the fourth quarter but that was when the outcome was all but decided, up 40-16 (Washington tacked on a pair of two-point conversions to make the final score a little more flattering). Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 30-14 the last 44 times Utah has played on the road following a home win by 17+ points with that spot producing an average total of just 48.1 points. The 'under' is also 87-60 in the Bruins last 147 games following an 'over' result, resulting in an average total of 54.6 points in that spot. I mentioned last year's matchup between these two teams totalled 68 points, sailing 'over' the closing total of 60.5. We're dealing with a higher number this time around and I'll point out the last time these teams met on this field we saw just 51 total points in 2018. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-08-22 | Tennessee v. LSU OVER 61.5 | Top | 40-13 | Loss | -110 | 121 h 11 m | Show |
SEC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and LSU at 12 noon et on Saturday. I really like the way this one sets up in early action on Saturday. Tennessee is coming off a wild 38-33 win over rival Florida two weeks ago, elevating it into the nation's Top-10. That game really told us all we need to know about the Volunteers. While they can score at will, they'll also give up their share of points. After a first quarter that saw just a single Tennessee field goal in terms of scoring, the rest of the contest was a wild ride. The second quarter saw four touchdowns over a 13-minute stretch. Three touchdowns were scored over an eight-minute stretch in the third quarter and three more touchdowns were tacked on in another eight-minute period in the fourth quarter. Keep in mind, outside of a road date with Pitt earlier in the season, the Vols hadn't really faced an opponent that could provide much heartburn offensively. The Tennessee offense has been outstanding through four games. What I really like about this offense is the way it pours it on even after games are long decided. Note that two games back against Akron, the Vols entered the fourth quarter with a 49-3 lead and proceeded to tack on two more touchdowns. In its season-opener, Tennessee added a fourth quarter touchdown to finish with 59 points in a rout of Ball State. The Vols will likely need all the points they can get on the road against a surging LSU squad here. The Tigers haven't been all that impressive offensively but I do believe a breakout is coming. We saw an expected defensive slugfest on the road against Auburn last Saturday but earlier in the season we saw a glimpse of what might be in store for this offense in a 31-16 win over Mississippi State. After getting off to a slow start, we saw LSU score three touchdowns in just over a nine-minute stretch in the fourth quarter. Dual-threat QB Jayden Daniels threw for more than 200 yards while running for just shy of 100 against a pretty good Bulldogs defense on that night. In a game where the Tigers could have easily taken it easy and cruised to a comfortable win, they scored five offensive touchdowns over a 15-minute stretch in the first half against FCS squad Southern University back in Week 2. The explosiveness is there and I think we'll see it in a shootout against the Vols here. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-08-22 | Arkansas v. Mississippi State UNDER 62 | 17-40 | Win | 100 | 97 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arkansas and Mississippi State at 12 noon et on Saturday. Arkansas enters this game sporting a 4-1 o/u mark this season while Mississippi State has seen each of its last two contests go 'over' the total. I look for a different story to unfold when the two teams meet up on Saturday in Starkville. It's no secret that Arkansas wants to run the football and in this particular matchup, certainly wants to go on long, clock-churning drives in an effort to keep Mike Leach's air raid offense off of the field as much as possible. Note that the Razorbacks have yet to complete 20 or more passes in a game this season. They've been racking up the rushing yardage but they've also been running the ball 40, 50 and even 60 times per contest. While they've gained close to 300 rushing yards in two meetings with Mississippi State over the last two years, they've needed 80+ attempts to get there. The Bulldogs can sling it with underrated QB Will Rogers at the helm. With that being said, looking back to last year's meeting, they completed 36-of-48 passes for 417 yards and still 'only' scored 28 points in a three-point defeat. While Mississippi State did put up 42 points against a good Texas A&M defense last week (we won with the Bulldogs in that game), they actually went from just under one minute remaining in the first quarter until over two minutes into the fourth quarter without reaching the end zone. They're also just two games removed from a 31-16 loss at LSU in which they didn't score a touchdown from two minutes remaining in the first half on. The last time we saw the Hogs play away from home - two weeks ago against Texas A&M at AT&T Stadium in Dallas - they scored twice in a five-minute stretch in the first quarter but then managed just one touchdown the rest of the way, that coming when they were trailing by nine points nearly five minutes into the fourth quarter. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 24-11 the last 35 times Mississippi State has played at home after a game that totalled 60+ points, as is the case here. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
10-08-22 | TCU -6.5 v. Kansas | Top | 38-31 | Win | 100 | 29 h 32 m | Show |
Big 12 Game of the Month. My selection is on TCU minus the points over Kansas at 12 noon et on Saturday. Kansas has turned heads in the early going this season, reeling off five consecutive victories to break into the Top 25. I expect the Jayhawks run to end here, however. Last week's 14-11 win over Iowa State was the high point for Kansas - finally earning it some national recognition for its hot start. It will be running into a juggernaut in the TCU Horned Frogs on Saturday. TCU absolutely throttled Oklahoma last Saturday, scoring five touchdowns in an 18-minute stretch in the first half to jump ahead and never look back in a 55-24 win. That's just the tip of the iceberg though. Two weeks ago the Horned Frogs scored four touchdowns in a 22-minute period in the first half en route to a 42-34 win over SMU, on the road no less, and there were also earlier merciless beatings of Colorado and FCS squad Tarleton State by a combined 97-30 margin. While the TCU defense has been somewhat forgiving in the early going this season, I will note that it allowed just two Oklahoma touchdowns in the first three quarters of last week's game. Against SMU it was already ahead 28-7 before the Mustangs caught it with its guard down and ultimately made a game of it. Here, I'm confident we'll see the Horned Frogs keep their mind on task against a conference opponent on the road. I hate to say it, but I do feel that Kansas has been very fortunate to start 5-0. Both West Virginia and Houston appeared poised to end the Jayhawks undefeated run earlier in the season but I think they both got caught thinking they could shift it into cruise control after building two-touchdown first quarter leads. This is obviously a much different Jayhawks squad and one that shouldn't be dismissed. I'm just not convinced the Kansas offense can keep within arm's reach in this one, noting that Iowa State laid out a pretty good blueprint for slowing dual-threat QB Jalon Daniels last Saturday, even in a losing effort (Daniels completed just 7-of-14 passes for 93 yards and ran for only nine yards on eight attempts). Kansas lost RB Daniel Hishaw to an injury in that contest as well, heaping a little more pressure on Daniels moving forward. Here, we'll note that Kansas is a woeful 35-54 ATS the last 89 times it has come off a home victory. In the Jayhawks last 21 games as an underdog they've been outscored by an average margin of 21.9 points. While I understand this is a different Kansas team, I'm still not completely sold on it being a legitimate Big 12 contender. Take TCU (10*). | |||||||
10-07-22 | UNLV v. San Jose State UNDER 50.5 | Top | 7-40 | Win | 100 | 108 h 25 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between UNLV and San Jose State at 10:30 pm et on Friday. We won with San Jose State in its rout of Wyoming last Saturday but I'll go a different route and back the 'under' as the Spartans return home to host UNLV on Friday. The Runnin' Rebels are coming off a tougher-than-expected 31-20 win over New Mexico last week. UNLV gave up two first quarter touchdowns in that contest but didn't allow another touchdown the rest of the way in that come-from-behind victory. Concerning was the fact that it took the Rebels until over midway through the third quarter to reach the end zone. It's been a case of feast-or-famine for the UNLV offense this season. Two games back against a weak Utah State squad, the Rebels scored three touchdowns in a seven-minute stretch early in the first half but then managed just one more touchdown the rest of the way. Here, UNLV will face a tough San Jose State defense that has given up just two touchdowns over its last six quarters of football. This will undoubtedly be UNLV's toughest defensive test since being held to just 14 points in a six-point loss on the road against California back on September 10th. Last Saturday, the Spartans put up 33 points in the win over Wyoming but that was largely a result of the Cowboys offense not being able to stay on the field, effectively leaving their defense out to dry. San Jose State controlled the football for more than 36 minutes in that contest. It is worth noting that it wasn't until more than eight minutes into the second quarter that the Spartans managed to reach the end zone in that game. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a perfect 7-0 the last seven times San Jose State has come off consecutive wins, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-07-22 | Colorado State v. Nevada -3.5 | 17-14 | Loss | -110 | 108 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on Nevada minus the points over Colorado State at 10:30 pm et on Friday. You won't find me backing Nevada to often this season, in fact we successfully faded the Wolf Pack in their most recent game two weeks ago - a 48-20 loss at Air Force. This is more of a fade of Colorado State than anything else. While few were paying attention, the Rams fell to 0-4 on the campaign with a 41-10 loss to FCS squad Sacramento State prior to their bye week. While Sacramento State is a capable squad having gone 4-0 so far this season, its four wins have come against opponents that have combined to go 4-14. In that lopsided defeat at the hands of the Hornets, the Rams failed to reach the end zone until the final two minutes of the first half. They've managed to score just two touchdowns in their last nine quarters of football. On the flip side, the CSU defense has been a train wreck. Note that it allowed Washington State - a good offensive team but by no means a juggernaut - to score four touchdowns over a 21-minute stretch two games back. Nevada is off to a disappointing 2-3 start. I say disappointing because the Wolf Pack did post consecutive wins to open the campaign. Of course, they've faced a tough slate of opponents over the last few games including one of the best teams in FCS, Incarnate Word followed by Iowa and Air Force with the latter two matchups coming on the road. This is a key 'get right' spot before Nevada travels to Hawaii and then the schedule really toughens up. The last time we saw the Wolf Pack here at home they jumped out to a 17-3 first quarter lead against Incarnate Word. They seemingly thought a win was already in the bag at that point, which was obviously a big mistake as Incarnate Word can score points in bunches, as it did in that contest. The Rams don't figure to pose a similar challenge here. Note that Nevada is 41-24 ATS the last 65 times it has played at home after an ATS loss but better still, it checks in 24-11 ATS the last 35 times it has played at home off a loss by 17+ points, as is the case here. Take Nevada (8*). | |||||||
10-07-22 | Saskatchewan v. Hamilton UNDER 49 | Top | 14-18 | Win | 100 | 36 h 57 m | Show |
Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Saskatchewan and Hamilton at 7:30 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'under' in the Riders blowout loss to the Blue Bombers last Friday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play this week as Saskatchewan travels to Hamilton to face the Tiger-Cats. The Riders have allowed their last three opponents to rack up 130+ rushing yards but that's had more to do with negative game script than anything else as they dropped all three contests, with two of them coming in blowout fashion against the Bombers. Hamilton doesn't figure to have the type of offense to take full advantage of the Riders defensive deficiencies, noting that it hasn't had a 100+ rushing yard game since August 12th against Toronto. The Riders pass defense has held up well, allowing just 27-of-49 completions over their last two games. You would have to go back six games to find the last time the Riders allowed an opponent to pass for over 300 yards. This is actually a higher posted total than we saw the last time these two teams met back in June - a game that totalled only 43 points. Note that the 'under' is 30-16 the last 46 times the Riders have played on the road after losing three of their last four games ATS, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 46.9 points. Meanwhile, the Ti-Cats have seen the 'under' go 34-18 the last 52 times they've sought revenge for a road loss by 17+ points against an opponent, which is also the situation here, leading to an average total of 48.2 points in that spot. Take the under (10*). |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ricky Tran | $756 |
ProSportsPicks | $632 |
Joseph D'Amico | $510 |
Joey Tron | $450 |
Tom Macrina | $399 |
Nick Parsons | $344 |
Sean Murphy | $306 |
Jack Jones | $303 |
William Burns | $233 |
Dan Kaiser | $220 |