Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12-14-21 | Rangers v. Avalanche -197 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 33 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado over New York at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. As I noted in my analysis of my play on the Avalanche against the Panthers (a game they won 3-2) on Sunday, I'll say it again here, it's going to take a monumental effort to take down the Avs based on how well they're playing right now. Colorado has now won four straight games, scoring 24 goals in the process, as it makes up for lost time after a tough start to the season due to injuries and otherwise. The Rangers were similarly hot recently but have since cooled off, dropping two of their last three games, scoring a grand total of just five goals in the process. New York is 10-5 on the road this season but averages just 3.0 goals per game away from home. By contrast, the Avs are averaging a ridiculous 4.7 goals per game on home ice, where they've gone 9-3 - outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 2.0 goals. Take Colorado (5*). | |||||||
12-14-21 | Islanders -119 v. Red Wings | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -119 | 31 h 58 m | Show |
NHL Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on New York over Detroit at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. We missed with the Isles here in Detroit less than two weeks ago as they fell in overtime by a 4-3 score. That was in the midst of an awful Covid-tinged stretch that saw New York lose 11 consecutive games. The Isles have seemingly turned things around now, however, as they've won two of their last three games with the lone loss coming thanks to a late lapse against the Preds on home ice. After finally winning their first game at brand new UBS Arena on Saturday night I think the monkey is off their back in some sense. Look for them to earn an ounce of revenge as they head to Motown on Tuesday night. The Red Wings are off to a fine start all things considered, but they haven't been overly consistent. They check into this game off three consecutive losses and there were some really concerning signs in all three as they were outscored by a wide margin of 18-7. Sometimes when the floodgates open it's difficult for a team to regain its footing - just ask the Islanders. Here, I look for New York to take full advantage of Detroit's recent woes, noting that the Wings are a miserable 6-32 in their last 38 games after allowing four goals or more in consecutive games, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 1.7 goals in that situation. Take New York (10*). | |||||||
12-14-21 | Kings v. Lightning -194 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 30 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Los Angeles at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Lightning are coming off an awful performance on Saturday as they fell by a 4-0 score against the lowly Senators in Ottawa. I look for them to get right back on track as they return home to host the Kings on Tuesday, however. You could argue that the Bolts essentially 'punted' that matinee affair against the Sens as they gave the start in goal to backup Brian Elliott at the end of a five-game road trip in which they had won the first four games. Now they're back at home where they got off to a slow start but have gone 8-5, averaging 3.2 goals per game and outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.7 goals. The Kings on the other hand, are coming off consecutive wins but both of those came on home ice. They're just 4-6 on the road where they average a miserable 2.3 goals per game. The Kings have lost five straight meetings with the Lightning here in Tampa. To find their last win at Amalie Arena you would have to go all the way back to February of 2015. This price may seem steep at first glance but I believe it could be even higher. Take Tampa Bay (5*). | |||||||
12-14-21 | Monmouth v. Yale +1.5 | 69-60 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Yale plus the points over Monmouth at 7 pm et on Tuesday. The Monmouth Hawks are playing excellent basketball right now - in fact, they're a perfect 10-0 ATS this season. I think they're in for a tough matchup on Tuesday night against Yale, however. Note that the Hawks will be playing their second game in the last three days - a situation they've gone 1-8 ATS in the last nine times it has come up, outscored by 9.5 points on average. Yale is coming off a 14-point loss to Iona, which is notable as it hasn't dropped consecutive games since dropping back-to-back contests against Vermont and Southern Utah (both away from home) back in mid-November. The Hawks and Bulldogs have similar strength of schedules so far this season so it's worth noting that Yale has sent opponents to the free throw line three fewer times per game while also turning the ball over two fewer times and forcing three more turnovers per contest. Both teams like to play up-tempo but I think that favors Yale here at home, where it shoots just shy of 47% as a team and averages nine made threes per game. Take Yale (10*). | |||||||
12-13-21 | Suns v. Clippers UNDER 212.5 | Top | 95-111 | Win | 100 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
NBA Pacific Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Monday. While the Suns have kept rolling without Devin Booker, they've been getting it done a little differently - or perhaps not as their defense has been outstanding going back to last season, it's just that it has sometimes taken a back seat to their terrific offense. Here, we'll note that the Suns have posted two of their five lowest-scoring outputs of the season over their last five games. The 'under' has cashed in five of their last six contests overall. Only once over their last five games have they given up more than 104 points - that coming in a rematch against the Warriors after defeating them three nights earlier. The Clippers have seen the 'under' cash in three of their last four games. Two of their nine lowest-scoring performances of the season have come in their last four contests. With Paul George likely to sit once again due to an elbow injury, I'm not sure they'll be interested in getting involved in a back-and-forth track meet with the Suns. These two teams are certainly very familiar with one another, noting that this will be the 10th meeting in the series going back to the start of last season with five of the previous nine staying 'under' the total including three of four matchups here in Los Angeles. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
12-13-21 | Rams v. Cardinals -2.5 | Top | 30-23 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
NFC West Game of the Month. My selection is on Arizona minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:15 pm et on Monday. While most will look to back the Rams in this big revenge spot on Monday Night Football, I like the way this spot sets up for the Cardinals. Interestingly, Arizona has lost its last two home games, falling against the Packers and Panthers. I do like what the Cardinals did last week in Chicago as they eased Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins back from injury - attempting only 15 passes - but still putting up 33 points against the Bears. The damage could have been much worse had they not eased off the gas in what was essentially a blowout. The Rams meanwhile went full throttle in a 37-7 rout of the lowly Jaguars at home. That snapped a three-game losing streak. At 5-7 ATS on the season, the Rams have been anything but a reliable bet. They've gone 4-2 on the road but haven't tasted victory away from home since posting a 38-22 win in Houston on Halloween. Since then we've seen them give up a whopping 67 points in consecutive losses in San Francisco and Green Bay. Three of their four road wins came against non-playoff contending teams in Seattle (with Geno Smith starting at QB for the Seahawks), New York (vs. the Giants) and Houston. I think it's fair to question at this point whether the Rams defense is as dominant as advertised. Arizona ripped the Rams for 216 rushing yards and 249 passing yards in a 37-20 win at So-Fi Stadium back in early October. With the Cardinals clamping down on opposing passing games (they're giving up only 6.4 yards per pass attempt) the Rams could be in tough as they're down another RB in Darrell Henderson (Covid protocols) and haven't had much success running the football at the best of times, gaining fewer than 100 yards rushing in four of their last six games. Sony Michel went off for 124 yards on 24 carries last week but he's been anything but consistent since joining the Rams. Take Arizona (10*). | |||||||
12-13-21 | Rhode Island v. Wisc-Milwaukee UNDER 131.5 | Top | 82-58 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
CBB Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Rhode Island and Wisconsin-Milwaukee at 8 pm et on Monday. We won with Wisconsin-Milwaukee in its most recent game as it stayed inside the double-digit pointspread on the road against Pac-12 squad Colorado. Here, I'll call for another relatively low-scoring affair (that loss to Colorado totalled just 119 points) as the Panthers host Rhode Island on Monday. The Rams have seen the 'under' cash in three consecutive games. Interestingly, the Rams are attempting only 15 three-pointers per game and I don't anticipate shifting course here on Monday. What they have done is do an excellent job of getting to the free throw line, doing so 20 times per game. Here, though, they'll face a Wisconsin-Milwaukee squad that has done a good job of limiting opponents' attempts from the charity stripe, giving up just 15 per game. That's not to mention the fact that the Panthers are allowing opponents to shoot just 39.2% from the field. They haven't guarded the perimeter particularly well, but again they'll be facing a Rams squad that tends to operate lower in the half court. I don't anticipate either team looking to push the pace too much in this one, instead look for both sides to look to run their offense, ultimately eating clock and helping the final score stay 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
12-12-21 | Hurricanes v. Canucks +1.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Vancouver +1.5 goals over Carolina at 10:05 pm et on Sunday. We're being asked to lay a steep price to grab the insurance goal with the Canucks on Sunday but I believe it's warranted. The Hurricanes are in the midst of a long western road trip and coming off their fourth straight win last night as they skated to a 3-1 victory in Edmonton. They'll give backup goaltender Antti Rantta the start in goal on Sunday. The Canucks are suddenly red hot, winners of five of their last six games. Note that Vancouver has not been kind to Carolina over the years as the Canes have dropped each of their last 10 meetings here. While the Canes are a terrific 12-4 on the road this season they're averaging just 3.1 goals per game so it's not as if they're blowing the doors off the opposition. They're just 6-10 on the road when factoring in the -1.5 puck-line. With two more games left on this homestand, I think the Canucks strong play has some runway left. Take Vancouver +1.5 goals (4*). | |||||||
12-12-21 | Bears v. Packers -12 | Top | 30-45 | Win | 100 | 32 h 44 m | Show |
NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Year. My selection is on Green Bay minus the points over Chicago at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. I absolutely love the way this one sets up for the Packers coming off their bye week. The Bears dropped a 33-22 decision at home against the Cardinals last week in a game that wasn't even as close as the lopsided final score indicated. Arizona could have gotten whatever it wanted offensively in that game and probably could or should have put up 40+ points were it not for taking its foot off the gas with QB Kyler Murray and WR DeAndre Hopkins easing their way back into action after missing time due to injury. Chicago will turn back to rookie Justin Fields under center after Andy Dalton failed to take care of the football in last week's loss. I'm not sure it makes any difference as this is an extremely limited Bears offense regardless who is under center. WR Allen Robinson is expected to return but he hasn't shown any sort of chemistry with Fields. On the flip side, the Packers offense should feast in this matchup. The Bears are shells of their former selves defensively. Six of their last seven opponents have rushed for over 100 yards while the last four teams they've faced have combined to complete 79-of-106 (75%) of their passes. In three meetings going back to the start of last season, Green Bay has scored 41, 35 and 24 points against Chicago. You would have to go back to December of 2018 to find the last time the Bears covered a spread in this series. Take Green Bay (10*). | |||||||
12-12-21 | Bears v. Packers OVER 43 | 30-45 | Win | 100 | 31 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Green Bay at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. I'm not anticipating any sort of old-school defensive struggle between these two NFC North rivals on Sunday night in Green Bay. When these two teams met in Chicago earlier this season they combined to score only 38 points. The Bears defense has fallen apart since then, though. They've given up 29 points or more in four of six games since that 24-14 loss to Green Bay. The story is more about who's not on the field than who is when it comes to Chicago's injury-ravaged defense. While the Bears did allow 'only' 33 points against Arizona last Sunday, the damage could have been much worse were it not for the Cards simply easing QB Kyler Murray and WR DeAndre Hopkins back into game action after missing extended time due to injury. The Bears have quietly been slinging the football all over the field in recent weeks and should employ a similar gameplan as they'll likely be playing from behind for much of the night on Sunday. Note that they've attempted 34, 39 and 41 passes in their last three contests. You would have to go back to Halloween to find the last time they ran the football 30+ times in a game. The last time these two teams met at Lambeau Field they combined to score 66 points last season. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
12-12-21 | Panthers v. Avalanche -141 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado over Florida at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Panthers on Friday but that was against the lowly Coyotes. Here, Florida continues its road trip against the red hot Avalanche in Colorado. The Avs are seemingly making up for lost time after a relatively slow start to the season due to injuries and otherwise. Colorado has reeled off three straight wins, scoring a whopping 21 goals in the process. I don't see the Avs slowing down against a Panthers squad that may or may not have Sasha Barkov after he was forced to miss Friday's game in Arizona (he's been in and out of the lineup due to a lower-body injury this season). It's going to take a substantial effort to take down the Avs considering the way they're playing right now, and I'm not convinced the Panthers, who are just 4-7 and average only 2.9 goals per game on the road this season are up to the task. Take Colorado (6*). | |||||||
12-12-21 | Pelicans v. Spurs -2.5 | Top | 97-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
NBA Southwest Division Game of the Month. My selection is on San Antonio minus the points over New Orleans at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Spurs in Thursday's win over the Nuggets and then successfully faded them in last night's blowout loss in the quick rematch. Here, I'll get behind the Spurs again as they stay home to face the Pelicans on Sunday night. New Orleans is coming off a win over Detroit on Friday, snapping a brief two-game losing streak. Now the Pelicans hit the road where they're just 4-11 this season, outscored by an average margin of 8.6 points. Note that they're a long-term loser at 59-85 ATS when playing on the road off a double-digit win, as is the case here. The Spurs meanwhile are 53-29 ATS when playing at home off a loss by 15+ points, which is the situation they're in tonight off last night's loss to the Nuggets. While they're just 5-8 SU at home this season, they've actually managed to outscore the opposition on average so the margin between a winning and losing record is fairly slim. Take San Antonio (10*). | |||||||
12-12-21 | Monmouth v. Pittsburgh +1 | 56-52 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh plus the points over Monmouth at 7 pm et on Sunday. The Panthers have been playing much better basketball lately and snapped their four-game losing streak with a 71-68 win over Colgate in the first game of the Gotham Classic on Thursday. Keep in mind, their four-game skid included narrow one-point losses against Minnesota and Virginia (on the road). Here, we'll note that Pitt is sending opponents to the free throw line just 14 times per game compared to Monmouth's 21. The Panthers also represent a much different challenge than Monmouth is used to facing as they generally focus on scoring down low rather than from beyond the arc, where most of the Hawks opponents have lived, noting that they've faced 25 three-point attempts per game. Pitt attempts just 15 threes per contest. Monmouth checks in undefeated ATS on the season at a perfect 9-0. Off just its second straight-up loss of the campaign I look for it to have a tough time regaining its footing against Pitt on Sunday. Take Pittsburgh (8*). | |||||||
12-12-21 | Winnipeg v. Hamilton UNDER 44.5 | 33-25 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Winnipeg and Hamilton at 6 pm et on Sunday. We opened our CFL campaign by cashing the 'under' in this same matchup way back in August so it's only fitting that we close out the season with precisely the same play in Sunday's Grey Cup. The Tiger-Cats offense has been consistent but also somewhat limited all season. Even in last Sunday's win over the Argos, the Ti-Cats completed a ridiculous 20-of-22 passes yet still scored 'only' 27 points in a come-from-behind victory. Three games back we saw Hamilton complete a season-high 27 passes yet still only scored 24 points. You get the idea. Here, the Ti-Cats will be up against one of the best CFL defenses we've seen in years in the Blue Bombers. Winnipeg has allowed fewer than 20 points in 11 of 15 games this season. They weren't necessarily at their best last Sunday against a Riders squad that had a real chip on its shoulder, yet still gave up just 17 points in a victory. Like the Ti-Cats, the Bombers have a rather limited offense. They've completed 17 or fewer passes in six of their last seven games. You would have to go back four games to find the last time they scored more than 21 points. The first meeting between these two teams this season totaled only 25 points. While I'm not about to predict that sort of slugfest here, I do think this total will ultimately prove too high. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
12-12-21 | Lions v. Broncos -10.5 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 27 h 56 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Denver minus the points over Detroit at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. It's pretty easy to envision a scenario where the lowly Lions simply 'punt' this game given the illness that has ravaged the team this week with nearly half of the roster missing practice time at one point or another. That combined with Detroit in a clear letdown spot off its first victory of the season - a truly emotional win given the events that had transpired in Michigan the previous week - and you can understand why I'm not high on the Lions stringing together a second straight solid performance here. Keep in mind, even in last week's win, the Lions defense still struggled. Here, it will go against an often punchless Broncos offense but one that is set up exceptionally well to bounce back nicely following last Sunday's ugly performance in primetime against the Chiefs. With Detroit struggling mightily to defend the pass and the Broncos as healthy as they've been all season at the wide receiver position, this is a smash spot for Teddy Bridgewater and the Denver offense (I know that sounds strange). This will certainly be an emotional game for the Broncos after former WR Demariyus Thomas passed away suddenly earlier this week. Much like they did the last time we saw them on this field against the Chargers, look for the Broncos to come up big at home. Take Denver (10*). | |||||||
12-12-21 | Villanova +4.5 v. Baylor | 36-57 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Villanova plus the points over Baylor at 3 pm et on Sunday. Could we be seeing a potential National Title Game preview on Sunday afternoon? I'll go with the Wildcats in this spot as they aim to hand Baylor its first loss of the season. Villanova checks in 7-2 on the campaign with its two losses coming by nine points against UCLA and six points against Purdue - two other national title contenders. The Wildcats could offer a bit of a shock to the system for the Bears here, noting that 'Nova averages a whopping 30 three-point attempts per game (making 12 of those on average) while Baylor has only faced an average of 19 attempts per game from three-point range. Note also that the Wildcats are sending opponents to the free throw line only 13 times per game this season and turning the ball over an average of just nine times. By contrast, the Bears turn it over 12 times per game and send opponents to the line 14 times. Simply put, I don't believe there's a lot separating these two teams at this stage of the season and we're being given a couple of buckets to work with. Take Villanova (10*). | |||||||
12-12-21 | NC State +14 v. Purdue | 72-82 | Win | 100 | 6 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on N.C. State plus the points over Purdue at 2 pm et on Sunday. Purdue snagged the number-one ranking in the country and then proceeded to drop a 70-68 decision against Rutgers earlier this week. While the Boilermakers should bounce back with a win here, I question whether they can do so by margin. N.C. State checks in just 1-8 ATS on the campaign but 7-2 straight-up. It's worth noting that the Wolfpack's two losses have come by just six points against Oklahoma State and five points against Louisville - certainly two quality opponents. I like the fact that N.C. State is turning the basketball over just 10 times per game compared to Purdue's 13. The Wolfpack are getting to the free throw line an impressive 25 times per game while sending opponents to the charity stripe only 16 times on average. The Boilers are certainly the more talented team and as I said they should get the win, but they're simply being asked to lay too many points in my opinion. Take N.C. State (8*). | |||||||
12-12-21 | Cowboys v. Washington Football Team OVER 48 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -109 | 25 h 34 m | Show |
NFL Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Washington at 1 pm et on Sunday. These two teams have been strongly trending to the 'under' lately but that only serves to set us up with value on the 'over' on Sunday as they match up for the first time this season. Dallas didn't have to score a whole lot against an extremely limited Saints offense last week but still managed to put 27 points on the board. With a couple of extra days of rest between games (that game against New Orleans was on Thursday) the Cowboys banged-up weapons on offense, namely Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb and Ezekiel Elliott have had extra time to get back closer to full strength. I expect them to be all systems go for this favorable matchup on Sunday. Washington hasn't been able to stop or even slow opposing passing games. They've given up 20+ pass completions in six of their last seven games. Here, they'll be without yet another pass rusher in Montez Sweat as he is on the Covid list and being un-vaccinated is unable to play on Sunday. Dak Prescott has the potential to absolutely go off in this one. Washington is coming off consecutive low-scoring affairs. Similar to Dallas' relatively low-scoring performance against the Saints last week, the Football Team hasn't had to score much to secure its last two victories against Seattle and Las Vegas. We should see a different story here, however. Washington WR Terry McLaurin should absolutely wreck Cowboys corner Trevon Diggs, who has been outstanding at intercepting the football but horrible at covering opposing wide receivers. Meanwhile, the Dallas run defense has shown some major cracks in recent weeks, allowing just shy of 5.0 yards per rush over its last three games. Everything should be on the table for QB Taylor Heinecke and the Washington offense in this one. Note that the Football Team scored 25 and 41 points in two meetings against Dallas last season. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
12-12-21 | Seahawks v. Texans OVER 40.5 | 33-13 | Win | 100 | 24 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. While I'm not anticipating a track meet between these two teams on Sunday afternoon, I do believe this relatively low posted total will prove too low on Sunday afternoon. The Seahawks offense has made some progress with QB Russell Wilson seemingly getting more comfortable as he continues to recover from his finger injury. Last Sunday Wilson took a step in the right direction, throwing for just shy of 300 yards in a win over the 49ers. You can see that the big plays are there, Wilson simply needs to do a better job of putting the football in the right location. He should have little trouble doing so against a Texans defense that has no semblance of a pass rush and has been thrown all over by any opposing offense with a pulse this season. Rookie QB Davis Mills gets his second stint as the Texans starter under center in place of an ineffective Tyrod Taylor. The Texans would be wise to attack the Seahawks defense through the air in this one as Seattle is now without safety Jamal Adams while corner Quandre Diggs is banged up and questionable to play on Sunday as well. You can certainly envision a scenario where the Seahawks defense suffers a letdown here following a two-game stretch that saw it play on Monday Night Football and then at home against the division-rival 49ers. In two previous indoor games this season the Seahawks allowed a combined 46 points and 789 total yards at Indy and Minnesota. The Texans may appear to pose little offensive threat on paper but the Seahawks haven't exactly been a trustworthy squad this season. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
12-11-21 | Houston +2.5 v. Alabama | 82-83 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston plus the points over Alabama at 10 pm et on Saturday. This shapes up as the game of the night as the 14th-ranked Cougars travel to face the 9th-ranked Crimson Tide. We've seen the line flip from Houston being favored to now Alabama laying a bucket. Each team has one loss this season with Houston falling by two points on the road against a tough Wisconsin squad and Alabama dropping a 72-68 decision against Iona. Houston comes off an ATS loss last time out - a game it still won by 32 points over Alcorn State. Following the Cougars two previous ATS defeats this season they've posted wins by 33 points over Rice and 29 points over Oregon. The Crimson Tide already have a big statement win to their credit this season having defeated Gonzaga by nine points in their last game last weekend. Houston is sending opponents to the free throw line just 15 times per game this season and also turning the ball over just 11 times on average. By contrast, Alabama is allowing 20 free throws per contest and turning it over an average of 14 times. I'll grab the points with the underdog Cougars. Take Houston (10*). | |||||||
12-11-21 | Nuggets +1 v. Spurs | Top | 127-112 | Win | 100 | 30 h 20 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Denver plus the points over San Antonio at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. The Nuggets opened as favorites in the front half of this two-game set in San Antonio on Thursday but the line quickly shifted in favor of the Spurs. We won with San Antonio in that contest but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Nuggets as they look for quick revenge on Saturday. Denver was never really all that competitive in Thursday's game, even if it did manage to keep things relatively close in the third quarter. Keep in mind, the Nuggets were playing the second of back-to-back nights after prevailing in overtime in New Orleans the night before. Here, the Spurs won't have the same rest advantage and that should be a difference-maker. The Nuggets did get a triple-double from Nikola Jokic in Thursday's loss. He's being asked to shoulder a lot of the offensive load with a number of key cogs missing due to injury. Road-weary or not, the Nuggets can ill-afford another slip-up here as they wrap up a seven-game road trip. Denver entered Friday's action a full six games back of the Jazz in the Northwest Division. The Spurs have won just once in their last three games on the heels of a four-game winning streak. They entered Friday as one of only four Western Conference teams that have yet to reach 10 wins on the season. Take Denver (10*). | |||||||
12-11-21 | Western Kentucky +6 v. Ole Miss | 71-48 | Win | 100 | 30 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Western Kentucky plus the points over Ole Miss at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. We've had to wait a full week, but we finally have an opportunity to fade Ole Miss off last Saturday's gift-wrapped win over Memphis. The Rebels won that game over the Tigers outright as an underdog as Memphis simply couldn't knock down its three-pointers (2-for-11) or free throw attempts (23-for-37) in an embarrassing performance. That was really Ole Miss' only truly impressive win this season and the jury is still out as to how impressive it actually was given the sloppiness of the Tigers in that game. Western Kentucky checks in sporting a less than impressive 5-4 overall record but it has faced a very tough schedule, including three straight November road games against Minnesota, South Carolina and aforementioned Memphis (when the Tigers were playing much better). The Hilltoppers are absolutely a contender in C-USA again this season and we could certainly seem them playing meaningful games in March. These two teams haven't met since back in 2014 when Western Kentucky stunned Ole Miss by an 81-74 score. Another 'upset' could be in the cards here. Take Western Kentucky (10*). | |||||||
12-11-21 | Devils v. Islanders -148 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 30 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over New Jersey at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. Maybe I'm a sucker for punishment but I can't help to go back to the well with the reeling Islanders again on Saturday night. They're coming off another devastating last-minute loss against the Predators (who have admittedly had their number in recent years) on Thursday. New York led that game 3-2 in the third period before eventually falling by a 4-3 score. I do like the way the Isles are set up to FINALLY win their first game at brand-new UBS Arena on Saturday, however, as they host a Devils squad playing the second of back-to-back nights. New Jersey has won just 3 of 10 road games so far this season and will be up against a revenge-minded Islanders squad here after defeating New York by a 4-0 score back on November 11th. While the Isles are struggling mightily to find victories right now, it's not as if they're getting blown out. In fact, each of their last five losses have come by a single goal. Enough is enough, look for them to get the monkey off their backs at home on Saturday night. Take New York (8*). | |||||||
12-11-21 | Jazz v. Wizards OVER 218 | 123-98 | Win | 100 | 29 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Utah and Washington at 7 pm et on Saturday. Keeping in mind the most recent matchup between these two teams last April got well into the 240's and the Jazz are on an incredible scoring tear right now, I believe this total will prove too low on Saturday night in Washington. The Wizards might be catching the Jazz at the right time as Utah is playing its fourth road game in the last seven nights, not to mention being in a three-in-four situation away from home. Washington knows it's going to have to hang a crooked number on the board to prevail in this one as Utah has put up 127, 129, 137, 109, 136 and 118 points over the course of its current six-game winning streak. We won with the 'over' when the Jazz opened their current trip with a 109-108 win in Cleveland last Sunday. We're dealing with a slightly higher posted total this time around, but it won't be high enough. Take the over (9*). | |||||||
12-11-21 | Navy v. Army UNDER 35.5 | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 27 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Navy and Army at 3 pm et on Saturday. Much has been made of the long 'under' streak in this series, which quite literally goes back nearly two decades. The oddsmakers have obviously made their adjustments, shifting the total all the way down to the mid-30's for this year's matchup. I'm still not sure it's enough. Note that the last two times we've seen totals posted in the 30's in this rivalry, the final score has reached just 27 (2018) and 15 points (2020). Navy checks in having averaged a woeful 4.3 points in its last six non-conference games. Army, meanwhile, has averaged just 17 points the last 60 times it has come off a bye week, as is the case here. We're certainly not going to see much passing in this contest. Both teams know their strength lies in pounding away with their triple-option based offenses. Note that Navy completed just 25-of-55 (45%) of its passes in games where it attempted more than eight passes this season. In games where Army attempted more than six passes it completed only 25-of-53 (47%) of its passes. While both defenses were exposed by the better passing offenses they faced over the course of the regular season, they both excelled against the run with Navy limiting opponents that average 4.6 yards per rush to just 4.1 ypr and Army holding opponents that average 4.3 ypr to only 3.7 ypr. No reason to re-invent the wheel here. While this total may appear very low, I believe it might actually look pretty steep by the time halftime rolls around on Saturday. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
12-11-21 | Wisconsin v. Ohio State UNDER 136.5 | 55-73 | Win | 100 | 21 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Wisconsin and Ohio State at 12 noon et on Saturday. We should be in for an old-fashioned Big 10 slugfest as the Badgers and Buckeyes do battle in early action on Saturday. Wisconsin has gone back to its roots, playing exceptional defensive basketball while limiting its opponents possessions severely. Employing that style should give the Badgers their best shot at staging an upset win over Ohio State on Saturday as well. We did see Wisconsin get involved in a relatively high-scoring affair against Marquette just two games back. It was right back to business last time out, however, in a hard-fought 64-59 win over Indiana. Note that the most recent matchup between these two teams produced 'only' 136 points last January. Ohio State is coming off a high-scoring 85-74 win over Towson. The Buckeyes still check in ranked 255th in the nation in points per game - that's despite sitting top-30 in the country in field goal percentage. By contrast, the Badgers sit north of 300th in both points per game and field goal percentage. Take the under (9*). | |||||||
12-10-21 | Wisc-Milwaukee +13 v. Colorado | 54-65 | Win | 100 | 28 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Wisconsin-Milwaukee plus the points over Colorado at 9:30 pm et on Friday. Simply put, I'm not buying what Colorado is selling. The Buffaloes have just two ATS wins in 10 games this season. One of those came against a second-division opponent in Maine. The other came by a single point as a double-digit underdog against UCLA. Milwaukee has been largely disappointing to this point, only managing to post two victories. One of those came in its most recent contest against Robert Morris, however. The Panthers have shot better than 47% in consecutive games and I look for them to build off of those performances here. Colorado really isn't doing anything special to this point, making just four three-pointers per game on average while recording only 11 assists per game compared to 12 turnovers. I simply feel this is a good time to buy-low with Milwaukee, noting that three of its six losses this season have come by six points or less. Take Wisconsin-Milwaukee (10*). | |||||||
12-10-21 | Panthers -270 v. Coyotes | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 31 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Florida over Arizona at 9:05 pm et on Friday. We're being asked to lay a steep price with the Panthers on Friday night in Glendale, but I believe the price could be even higher. Florida is coming off a 4-3 overtime loss against the Blues on Tuesday but should bounce back in this spot. The Coyotes have managed only five wins in 25 games this season and enter this contest on a three-game skid having been outscored by a 16-4 margin along the way. They scored three goals in the first meeting in this series this season yet still managed to lose by two. Florida has been a little shaky on the back-end lately but this is an ideal 'get right' spot against the lowly 'Yotes. Take Florida (5*). | |||||||
12-10-21 | Pistons v. Pelicans OVER 212.5 | 93-109 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and New Orleans at 8:10 pm et on Friday. This should be a 'defense-optional' type of affair as the Pistons travel to New Orleans to face the Pelicans on Friday night. New Orleans is coming off back-to-back losses. It's worth noting that the Pelicans enter this contest having scored more than 100 points in six consecutive games. The Pistons have been lit up for 110 points or more in five straight games - all losses. They haven't actually tasted victory since November 17th at home against Indiana. Detroit has managed to score over 100 points in three consecutive games and I like its prospects of eclipsing that number with ease again here, noting that New Orleans sits a woeful 29th in the league in terms of defensive rating. Take the over (9*). | |||||||
12-10-21 | DePaul +9 v. Louisville | 62-55 | Win | 100 | 26 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Depaul plus the points over Louisville at 8 pm et on Friday. The Blue Demons are getting very little respect in this one as they check in as nearly double-digit underdogs against Louisville. Depaul has lost just one game and that came by just four points against a Loyola-Chicago squad that will likely be dancing come March. The Blue Demons have held the opposition to just north of 40% this season and they've been extremely disciplined in doing so, limiting opponents to only 14 free throw attempts per game. They're also shooting an impressive 49.2% as a team, having faced opponents that yield just 44.6% shooting on average. Louisville is off to a fine 6-2 start to the season but has only managed to go 4-4 ATS. The Cardinals have relied heavily on their defense to secure victories as they check in shooting just north of 42% as a team and 30.6% from three-point range. They're turning the ball over 15 times on average compared to Depaul's 12. Here, we'll note that Depaul is 33-18 ATS the last 51 times it has come off a double-digit home win, outscored by an average of just 2.6 points in that situation. Take Depaul (8*). | |||||||
12-10-21 | Nets v. Hawks | 113-105 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta over Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Friday. The Nets opened their current road trip with a three-point win in Dallas on Tuesday before falling to the red hot Rockets by double-digits on Wednesday. I look for them to have a tough time regaining their footing in Atlanta on Friday night. The Hawks have been idle since defeating the T'Wolves 121-110 on Monday. That was their first victory in three games so they'll certainly be eager to build some positive momentum in this spot, noting that they won't play again until they travel to Houston to face the aforementioned Rockets on Monday. This is a revenge spot for Atlanta after it fell by a 117-108 score in Brooklyn back on November 3rd. Take Atlanta (8*). | |||||||
12-10-21 | Kings v. Hornets +2 | 123-124 | Win | 100 | 29 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Charlotte plus the points over Sacramento at 7:10 pm et on Friday. Covid issues have hit the Hornets hard but they've remained competitive, coming off consecutive narrow losses at home against the 76ers by three and four-point margins. Here, I look for them to get back in the win column against the Kings before heading out on a tough six-game road trip. Even without a number of key cogs, it's not as if the Hornets are completely bereft of talent. Two nights ago we saw the trio of Kelly Oubre Jr., Gordon Hayward and Miles Bridges pour in 73 points in an overtime loss against Philadelphia. Joel Embiid went off for Philadelphia in that game. It was simply 'one of those nights' and the Hornets weren't able to get the victory. I expect a different story to unfold here. The Kings are coming off three straight wins but still sit three games under .500 on the season. Travelling across the country on just one day of rest off three consecutive victories is a recipe for disaster in the opener of this three-game trip in my opinion. Take Charlotte (8*). | |||||||
12-10-21 | Rangers -155 v. Sabres | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 29 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Buffalo at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The Rangers essentially punted Wednesday's game against Colorado, giving Adam Huska his first start of his NHL career in goal. He not surprisingly struggled and the Blueshirts fell by a 7-3 score. I do expect them to bounce back on Friday as they head to Buffalo to face the struggling Sabres. New York hasn't suffered much of a drop-off in play on the road at all this season, going 9-3-2. While they're without starting goaltender Igor Shesterkin, they still have Alexandar Georgiev, who has managed to go 4-1-1 this season. The Sabres have of course been a disaster on the blue line and in goal but lately their offense has run dry as well as they've managed just two goals in their last two games and none in their last four periods of hockey. Take New York (7*). | |||||||
12-10-21 | Penguins v. Capitals -128 | 4-2 | Loss | -128 | 29 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington over Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Friday. I like the Caps in this spot as the Penguins wrap up a long, nearly two-week road trip that took them out west prior to this contest. Pittsburgh is coming off back-to-back wins over the Canucks and Kraken, outscoring those two opponents by a combined score of 10-2. It should find the going much tougher against a Caps squad that has picked up at least a point in six of its last seven games and checks in 9-1-4 at home this season. Washington of course took the first meeting this season by a 6-1 score back in November. It welcomed back a big part of its offense with T.J. Oshie returning two games back. He's seen nearly 37 minutes of action since returning. The Penguins will be without Jake Guentzel due to an upper body injury which is concerning as he had been on a four-game goal-scoring streak, potting seven goals along the way. Take Washington (8*). | |||||||
12-10-21 | Montana +8 v. James Madison | 6-28 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Montana plus the points over James Madison at 7 pm et on Friday. I'll take a shot with the underdog Grizzlies on Friday night as they travel to Virginia to challenge James Madison. Montana sports the number-five rank in FCS while James Madison is number-two. Montana hasn't lost a game since October 16th at the hands of Sacramento State. Its only other defeat this season came against Eastern Washington back on October 2nd - a loss it avenged in the playoffs last week as it prevailed 57-41 in the rematch. While the Grizzlies offense has been lighting it up, I believe its defense can hang in this one as well. It will certainly be challenged against a Dukes squad that has put up 50+ points in three of its last four games. While JMU does sport the higher overall ranking, it has only faced three top-25 ranked FCS squads during its current seven-game winning streak and none of those opponents were ranked higher than 18th. The Dukes did defeat Weber State, which was at the time ranked number-nine, back in mid-September but the Wildcats didn't turn out to be nearly as good as most expected, losing five games and failing to reach the playoffs. The Dukes are certainly tough at home but not unbeatable as they fell against Villanova on this field back in October. I simply feel this battle-tested Montana squad (last two opponents have been number-three and number-four ranked teams in FCS) can give JMU a difficult test on Friday night and we're being given more than a touchdown to work with (at the time of writing). Take Montana (10*). | |||||||
12-09-21 | Wild -139 v. Sharks | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
NHL Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota over San Jose at 10:35 pm et on Thursday. The Wild are rolling right now, winners of seven games in a row heading into Thursday's matchup in San Jose. I look for them to keep rolling, noting that the Sharks have just one victory in their last three games and that was essentially gift-wrapped for them thanks to an awful performance from the Flames after they had built a 3-1 lead. Keep in mind, the Wild will have revenge on their minds here after suffering a 4-1 loss on home ice against the Sharks back on November 16th. nNote that San Jose averages a woeful 1.9 goals per game the last 16 times it has played at home after scoring three goals or more in consecutive games, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 0.7 goals in that situation. After Tuesday's win in Edmonton, the Wild are now 8-5 on the road this season, averaging 3.2 goals per game along the way. While the Sharks have posted a winning record at home at 6-5 on the season, they've actually been outscored by an average margin of 0.4 goals. Take Minnesota (10*). | |||||||
12-09-21 | Nuggets v. Spurs +1.5 | Top | 111-123 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Denver at 8:40 pm et on Thursday. Tough spot for the Nuggets here after they rallied for an overtime win in New Orleans last night. Note that Denver hasn't posted consecutive wins since posting five straight victories back in early November. The Spurs, meanwhile, saw their four-game winning streak come to an end in Phoenix on Monday before dropping a double-digit decision at home against the Knicks the next night. I look for them to regain their footing here, noting that they've gone 30-15 ATS when revenging a road loss against an opponent over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here after they lost by six points in Denver back in October. The Nuggets on the other hand are a woeful 16-30 ATS in their last 46 games off a road win. Take San Antonio (10*). | |||||||
12-09-21 | Monmouth v. St. John's -8 | 83-88 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. John's minus the points over Monmouth at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. Credit Monmouth for going a perfect 8-0 ATS to open the season but I think that streak ends here. St. John's comes in off five consecutive ATS losses but keep in mind it was favored by 16 points or more in four of those games and the other came against mighty Kansas. Here, we're being offered a much more favorable line to back the Red Storm and I expect them to deliver a double-digit win. This is a bit of a case of 'anything you can do I can do better'. St. John's is averaging nearly twice as many assists per game, steals per game and forced turnovers per contest. Checking in a perfect 6-0 on their home floor while outscoring opponents by right around 20 points per game, I question whether Monmouth can keep pace in this one. The Hawks are coming off a 14-point win over Canisius but that was a game in which the Griffins were missing arguably their best player in Malek Green. No such luck for the Hawks here as they run into a St. John's squad that will be eager to get rolling in their first game at the 'Gotham Classic'. Take St. John's (10*). | |||||||
12-09-21 | Steelers v. Vikings OVER 43.5 | 28-36 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Minnesota at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. I don't agree with the move at all as this total has dropped a few points since opening. The Vikings defense is one of the worst in the league in its current form and even with the Steelers boasting a QB that's well past his prime in Ben Roethlisberger and play-calling that leaves a lot to be desired at times, I'm willing to bet on skill players like WR Chase Claypool and Diontae Johnson and RB Najee Harris in this matchup. Minnesota has allowed a whopping 94 points over its last three games. Pittsburgh's defense carries a 'brand name' reputation but certainly hasn't performed up to par for much of the campaign, due to injuries and otherwise. The big news here is that the Vikes offense will be without RB Dalvin Cook and WR Adam Thielen - a big reason for the downward shift in the total. That being said, I like the depth the Vikes possess on offense. RB Alexander Mattison is a Dalvin Cook clone while WR K.J. Osborn is capable of picking up some of the slack in Thielen's absence. The Steelers will undoubtedly have their hands full with Vikes WR Justin Jefferson, who should have another monster performance here. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
12-09-21 | Steelers v. Vikings -3 | 28-36 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over Pittsburgh at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. Seeing plenty of love for the Steelers catching points in this Thursday night matchup but I can't say I agree. Extended losing streaks have been few and far between for the Vikings over the years, noting that they're 57-33 ATS in their last 90 games following consecutive losses. They've yet to lose three games in a row this season despite their 5-7 record. Believe it or not they're still alive in the NFC playoff hunt and I look for them to come up big in this primetime game at home. Yes, Minnesota will be without Dalvin Cook and Adam Thielen for this game. With that being said, backup RB Alexander Mattison has been every bit as effective as Cook while the duo of Justin Jefferson and K.J. Osborn are more than capable of picking up the slack in Thielen's absence. The Vikes defense is certainly a concern but let's not act like the Steelers 'D' has been iron clad either. Note that Pittsburgh's two highest point totals allowed this season have come in their last three games. Take Minnesota (8*). | |||||||
12-09-21 | Predators v. Islanders -105 | 4-3 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Nashville at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. The Islanders finally got the monkey off their back with a 5-3 win over the Senators on Tuesday night. Now I look for them to pick up their first ever win at UBS Arena on Thursday against Nashville. The Predators are coming off back-to-back wins at home against Montreal and on the road against Detroit. Note that the Preds are still just 6-6 on the road this season where they've been outscored by an average margin of 0.4 goals. The Isles have little time to waste right now following their long losing streak. Despite their struggles, largely due to a Covid outbreak, I still like the make-up of this team and believe they can dig their way out of the massive hole they've created. But it has to start here, with six of their next seven games coming on home ice. The Preds have been dealing with an illness running through the team as well (not Covid related). Goaltender Juuse Saros and d-man Mattias Ekholm both missed their last game and are questionable to play on Thursday. Take New York (9*). | |||||||
12-09-21 | Ducks v. Blue Jackets -102 | 2-1 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Columbus over Anaheim at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. Lots of support coming in for the Ducks here after Trevor Zegras took over the highlight reel with his insane behind the net flip assist to Sonny Milano in Anaheim's 2-0 win in Buffalo two nights ago. Having collected at least a point in each of the first two games of this road trip, I look for a letdown of sorts for the Ducks here. Columbus is coming off a 5-4 loss in Toronto two nights ago. Keep in mind, the Blue Jackets showed plenty of fight in that contest, rallying back from a 5-1 deficit. They've been a different team on home ice this season where they're 9-3, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.2 goals. Meanwhile, despite the win in Buffalo, Anaheim is still just 5-7 on the road this season where it allows 3.7 goals per game. Take Columbus (9*). | |||||||
12-08-21 | Blazers v. Warriors -13.5 | 94-104 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. The straight-up winner has now covered the spread in 20 consecutive games involving the Golden State Warriors. That's a trend I see continuing on Wednesday night as the Warriors welcome the reeling Trail Blazers to San Francisco. The Blazers are of course still without Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum, among others. Two of Portland's three lowest-scoring efforts of the season have come in its last three contests. As for Golden State, it matched its second-highest scoring production of the season in Monday's 126-95 rout of the Magic. Still, this is a team that has lost two of its last four games so I don't expect it to overlook the undermanned Blazers on Wednesday. Note that the Warriors already defeated a healthier Portland squad by 15 points here back in November. Take Golden State (9*). | |||||||
12-08-21 | Stars v. Golden Knights -135 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 53 m | Show |
NHL Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Vegas over Dallas at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Knights have quietly gotten healthy but are still looking for consistency as they aim for their first three-game winning streak since early November on Wednesday night. Meanwhile, Dallas has ripped off seven straight victories with six of those coming on home ice. The Stars' last two opponents have been punchless as the Blue Jackets and Coyotes combined to score just three goals on a miserable 41 shots on goal. Keep in mind, while the Stars did prevail, in their last two games against opposition with a pulse they've been outshot by a 77-39 combined margin against the Avalanche and Hurricanes. They're likely to face an onslaught here with the Knights having scored 15 goals over their last three games and averaging 3.2 goals per game on home ice this season. By contrast, Dallas averages just 2.4 goals per game on the road, where it has gone 4-6 and been outscored by an average margin of 1.1 goals. Dallas has played just three games here in Vegas all-time, only managing a single win with that coming back in the Knights inaugural season. Take Vegas (10*). | |||||||
12-08-21 | Drake -20 v. Nebraska-Omaha | Top | 78-70 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
CBB Game of the Week. My selection is on Drake minus the points over Nebraska-Omaha at 9 pm et on Wednesday. Both of these teams enter Wednesday's game on extended ATS losing streaks but I certainly feel that Drake is in better position to end its skid in this spot. The Bulldogs couldn't have played much better in their last two games but the opposition ended up shooting well and keeping them from ATS victories (they did win both of those games straight-up). In those two contests, Drake committed just 16 turnovers and shot 45.7% from the field. By contrast, Omaha has turned the ball over a whopping 31 times over its last two contests. It did manage to shoot better than 47% from the field last time out but that was against a 'defense-optional' Eastern Washington squad. Omaha remains one of the worst offensive teams in the country, averaging just 59.1 points per game on 36.5% shooting this season. Drake has a chance to be the class of an ultra-competitive Missouri Valley Conference this season with five returning starters. Don't be fooled by the Bulldogs modest 5-3 record as their three losses came against potential NCAA Tournament teams in Belmont, Alabama and North Texas. Take Drake (10*). | |||||||
12-08-21 | Mavs v. Grizzlies OVER 215.5 | Top | 104-96 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
NBA Southwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Mavs enter this game off a third straight relatively low-scoring affair last night as they fell by a 102-99 score at home against Brooklyn. Noting that the 'over' is 74-50 with the Mavs playing on the road off three or more consecutive 'under' results, I'm anticipating a higher-scoring contest that finds its way 'over' the total on Wednesday in Memphis. The Grizzlies have seen the 'under' cash in their last two games. With that being said, two of their own four highest-scoring performances of the season have come in their last five contests. Note that the 'over' has gone 8-1 with the Grizzlies in a home favorite role this season, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 235.9 points. These two teams just met last week with the Grizzlies winning by a 97-90 score in Dallas. The Grizz didn't have to score a whole lot to secure the win on that night as Dallas was without Kristaps Porzingis and Luka Doncic. Both returned to the lineup last night. The last time these two teams met in Memphis they combined to score a whopping 237 total points. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
12-08-21 | Canisius v. Northern Kentucky -6.5 | 62-75 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on Northern Kentucky minus the points over Canisius at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Northern Kentucky has just one win in six games this season but that's largely due to a sneaky-tough schedule. Sure, considering they've been favored in four of their first six contests, the Norse would have liked to have earned more than a single victory. That should only fuel their fire as they host a beatable Canisius squad that may or may not be without its super sixth-man Malek Green after he missed Sunday's game due to a sore ankle. The Golden Griffins are also off to a disappointing start. Their only two victories this season have come against Fredonia State and Coppin State, with the latter victory coming by just a single point as 10-point favorites. Canisius' game is largely built on spotting up from three and knocking those shots down. Unfortunately they just haven't been falling so far this season (31.6% from three-point range) and they don't figure to right the ship here with Northern Kentucky holding the opposition to just 32.5% three-point shooting on the season. This looks like an excellent 'get right' spot for the Norse offense against a Canisius defense that has allowed opponents to shoot better than 48% from the field this season. Take Northern Kentucky (8*). | |||||||
12-08-21 | Young Boys Bern v. Manchester United -1.25 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -102 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
Champions League Game of the Month. My selection is on Manchester United -1 goal over Young Boys at 3 pm et on Wednesday. Changes will be made to the Manchester United side as it has already secured advancement to the next round of Champions League play. That doesn't mean the Red Devils will roll over in this rematch with Young Boys after dropping a 2-1 decision in the reverse match in Switzerland back in September. Keep in mind, Man U grabbed an early 1-0 lead in that match before a red card foiled its gameplan shortly after. Here, the Red Devils will look to gain an ounce of revenge, even if the result means little to them. Young Boys desperately need a win but also some help to book advancement to the next round. They bring poor form to the table having struggled in league play, largely due to a number of key absences due to injury. Even without a number of its regular starts, I'm confident we'll see Manchester United secure victory here as interim manager Ralf Rangnick is determined to see his squad boost its confidence off Sunday's clean sheet victory over Crystal Palace and ahead of a weekend clash with lowly Norwich City in EPL action. Take Manchester United -1 (10*). | |||||||
12-07-21 | Celtics v. Lakers -2.5 | Top | 102-117 | Win | 100 | 16 h 7 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Boston at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. It's been an eventful road trip for the Celtics already as they've been involved in a pair of very high-scoring games against the Jazz and Blazers, managing to earn a 1-1 split thanks to a 145-point explosion last time out in Portland. Here, I like the Lakers to get back on track following a tough loss to the Clippers and gain an ounce of revenge in the process after suffering a lopsided loss in Boston earlier this season. Note that Los Angeles has managed to follow each of its last three losses with wins and this is certainly a key spot before playing five of its next six games on the road. The Lakers are actually in a double-revenge spot here after dropping the last meeting last season as well by a 121-113 score here at home. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
12-07-21 | Panthers v. Blues +1.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis +1.5 goals over Florida at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Blues check in having dropped consecutive games while the Panthers have won three games in a row. Keep in mind, all three of those Panther victories came on home ice. That includes a 4-3 come-from-behind overtime win over St. Louis on Saturday. Now the Cats hit the road, where they're just 3-6 this season, averaging a full goal less than their season scoring average. As for the Blues, they've won four games in a row at home. While they're still likely going to be without starting goaltender Jordan Binnington, backup Ville Husso hasn't really been the problem over the last two games as he's faced a whopping 86 shots. Look for St. Louis to tighten things up defensively here, noting that it allows just 2.5 goals per game one home ice this season. I believe the case can be made that the wrong team is being favored, but we'll grab the insurance goal since it's being offered. Take St. Louis +1.5 goals (6*). | |||||||
12-07-21 | Nets v. Mavs +2.5 | 102-99 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Brooklyn at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Mavs will be looking to salvage the finale of their three-game homestand on Tuesday after suffering losses at the hands of the Grizzlies and Pelicans. The hope is that they'll have both Kristaps Porzingis and Luka Doncic back for this game but it at the very least looks like Porzingis will be back in the lineup. I like the fact that we're catching points with the Mavs here noting that the Nets have managed to cover the spread just once in their last nine games. This is a big spot for the Mavs as they look to stop the bleeding before heading out on the road for three in a row. While the Nets do check in playing well offensively, it has come at the expense of their defense it seems as they've allowed 104 points or more in seven straight contests. Take Dallas (8*). | |||||||
12-06-21 | Patriots v. Bills -2.5 | Top | 14-10 | Loss | -117 | 23 h 41 m | Show |
MNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over New England at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I feel a bit like I'm in some sort of bizarro world with the Bills laying less than a field goal at home against the Patriots on Monday. New England has suddenly become the hunted as it enters Monday's action tied for the AFC's best record at 8-4, holding tie-breakers over the Ravens and Titans so essentially sitting as the conference's number one seed. The Bills can pull even with a victory on Monday night and I expect them to accomplish just that. New England has really played in just two true 'step up' games this season and it lost both against Tampa Bay and Dallas. There have been other tough games to be sure, perhaps most notably a 27-24 road win over the Chargers, but this is going to be one of its stiffest tests of the campaign. The Bills are without one of their best defensive players in Tre'Davious White but the Patriots will likely be without Kyle Dugger as well, so those absences somewhat offset one another. Offensively, the Pats don't have the likes of Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs. Mac Jones has been great and is certainly worthy of consideration for Rookie of the Year but the real key to the New England offense is the underrated stable of running backs. Here's the problem though; the Bills have held the opposition to just 3.9 yards per rush this season with that number improving to 3.2 against divisional foes. That's not to mention the fact that they've allowed just 5.3 yards per pass attmept and the league's fewest completions of 20+ yards. After facing the Panthers, Browns, Falcons and Titans (without Derrick Henry, Julio Jones and A.J. Brown) in consecutive games, the Pats are in for a shock to the system here. The Bills ran roughshod against a very similar Pats defense in two meetings last season, scoring a whopping 62 points in the process. I like the fact that the Buffalo bandwagon cleared significantly following losses to the Jaguars and Colts. Time to back the Bills on Monday. Take Buffalo (10*). | |||||||
12-06-21 | Nuggets v. Bulls OVER 216 | Top | 97-109 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The Nuggets enter this game riding a seven-game 'over' streak and I look for that trend to continue on Monday. Two of Denver's three highest scoring outputs of the season have come in their last two games as they put up 120 points in Miami and 113 in New York. Now it heads to Chicago to face a Bulls squad that has allowed two of its three highest point totals of the season over its last three games. On the flip side of that, two of the Bulls three highest scoring performances of the campaign have also come in their last three games. Note that this will be the second meeting between these two teams this season with the first producing 222 points back on November 19th in Denver. The last time they met here in Chicago they combined to score 230 points. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
12-06-21 | Mercer v. Coastal Carolina UNDER 139.5 | 74-69 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Mercer and Coastal Carolina at 7 pm et on Monday. Mercer enters this game off three consecutive wins, scoring 88, 73 and 83 points in the process but I expect the Bears to have some difficulty scoring against a stout Coastal Carolina zone defense on Monday night. The Chanticleers have held their last two opponents to 41-for-124 shooting and have yet to allow an opponent shoot better than 43.7% from the floor this season. Mercer isn't a team that plays exceptionally fast. For the Bears to stay competitive in this game they'll need to get back defensively in transition and force Coastal Carolina to operate its offense in the halfcourt. The Chanticleers are coming off two of their three highest-scoring performances of the season over their last two games. Those efforts came in a game against South Carolina where the Gamecocks essentially folded the tent in the second half and a contest against Winthrop that saw a closing total north of 150 points. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
12-05-21 | Blackhawks v. Islanders -148 | 3-2 | Loss | -148 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Chicago at 7:35 pm et on Sunday. It may not appear to be the case as they remain on a 10-game losing streak, but the Islanders have made some progress, collecting a point in each of their last two games - both overtime losses against the Sharks and Red Wings. We won't hesitate to go back to the well with the Isles here as they continue to search for their first win at brand-new UBS Arena. The Blackhawks are in a tough spot here, playing their third road game in four nights off a 3-2 loss to the Rangers last night. They already dropped a 4-1 decision at home against the Isles earlier this season. While the 'Hawks have been playing better lately, they're still just 3-9 on the road this season, where they've been outscored by an average margin of 1.4 goals. Take New York (6*). | |||||||
12-05-21 | 49ers v. Seahawks +3.5 | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 19 h 52 m | Show |
NFL Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle plus the points over San Francisco at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. This is a textbook fade of the 49ers after they posted three consecutive wins, scoring 30+ points in all three of those contests. Injuries always seem to be an issue when it comes to San Fran and here, they'll be without both WR Deebo Samuel and LB Fred Warner. The Seahawks showed a few positive flashes in Monday's ugly 17-15 loss in Washington but for the most part, bettors are way down on the team from the Pacific Northwest. Having matched a season-long three-game losing streak, I do think the Seahawks get up for this divisional home game. Note that the last time they faced the 49ers they were also down-trodden off consecutive losses and rose to the occasion with a 28-21 win on the road in the first week of October. The clock is most likely ticking on the Russell Wilson and/or Pete Carroll era in Seattle. Noting that the 'Hawks are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games after scoring 17 points or less in three straight games and 55-33 ATS off consecutive losses, I do look for them to give the Niners all they can handle on Sunday afternoon. Take Seattle (10*). | |||||||
12-05-21 | 49ers v. Seahawks UNDER 45.5 | Top | 23-30 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
NFC West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Seattle at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. We missed with the 'over' in Seattle's 17-15 loss in Washington on Monday night - we weren't even close with that one. Seattle has now seen the 'under' cash in five straight games and that's a trend I see continuing here. The Seahawks point totals going back to October 7th are 17, 20, 10, 31, 0, 13 and 15. The one outlier was a 31-point outburst against Jacksonville in a game that still stayed 'under' the total. I have, however, been impressed by the way the Seahawks have defended lately and they're well-positioned to slow an undermanned 49ers offense that will be without its best weapon, WR Deebo Samuel here. The Niners offense is in a classic contrarian fade spot after scoring 30+ points in three straight games. Note that the Seahawks have turned into a bit of a pass funnel defense lately and I think that will work out fine in this matchup. San Francisco wants to run the football - noting that it has 39 or more rush attempts in each of its last three games. Seattle has limited opponents to just 3.9 yards per rush - opponents that average 4.3 yards per rush on the season. Over their last three games, the Seahawks have given up just 3.3 ypr. While the Niners offense has been explosive points-wise, they've completed 17 or fewer passes in six of their last seven games. The Seahawks are always going to remain committed to the run as long as Pete Carroll is the head coach (which may not be for much longer). That doesn't mean they'll find success on the ground, however, noting that they've rushed for fewer than 100 yards in five consecutive games. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
12-05-21 | Saskatchewan v. Winnipeg UNDER 45.5 | Top | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
CFL Playoff Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Saskatchewan and Winnipeg at 4 pm et on Sunday. We saw a wild, high-scoring overtime game between Saskatchewan and Calgary last week as the Riders advanced to the West Final with a 33-30 victory. I expect a much different story to unfold here as the defensive-minded Blue Bombers look to punch their ticket to a second straight Grey Cup. Riders road games have finished with totals of 42, 55, 40, 37, 33, 36 and 27 points this season. The lone outlier came in a contest against a bad Lions defense. In two previous meetings with the Bombers, the Riders only managed to score a grand total of 17 points. It's not surprising that we've seen the 'under' go 9-4-1 in the Bombers 14 games this season. After all, they completed fewer than 20 passes in all but three of those games while holding each of their final six opponents to 19 pass completions or less. RB Andrew Harris is still banged-up - just as he has been all season - but I would certainly expect him to be a workhorse again in this one, provided he's healthy enough to play. The Riders defense has been more of a 'bend but don't break' unit compared to the Blue Bombers shut-down defense. They do catch the Bombers offense having not played its starters in nearly a month (they had the benefit of rest after locking up the West Division title early). You would have to go back to September 2018 - nine meetings ago - to find the last time these two teams combined to put up more than 45 points. I'll stick with the trend here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
12-05-21 | Jazz v. Cavs OVER 211 | 109-108 | Win | 100 | 6 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Utah and Cleveland at 3:40 pm et on Sunday. With the Jazz coming off their three highest scoring outputs of the season and Cleveland having posted two of its season-high scoring totals of the season in its last three games, I believe this total will prove too low on Sunday afternoon. The 'over' has cashed in seven of Utah's last eight games. While its offense has certainly played a big role in that, it's also worth noting that the Jazz defense has struggled as they've allowed over 100 points in seven of those eight contests. Cleveland, meanwhile, has scored 105 points or more in six straight games. Off four consecutive victories and in search of revenge for a pair of blowout losses again Utah last season, I look for a strong performance from the Cavs here. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 26-13 in the Cavs last 39 home games where the total was set between 210 and 219.5 points, with an average total of 220.0 points scored in that situation. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
12-05-21 | Western Illinois v. Central Michigan +5.5 | 97-70 | Loss | -109 | 3 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Central Michigan plus the points over Western Illinois at 2 pm et on Sunday. This situation sets up well for the 1-6 Chippewas as they finally get a chance to catch their breath after facing a ridiculously tough schedule to open the campaign. The Chips shot a miserable 31% from the field in a 33-point rout at the hands of Xavier on December 1st. Their schedule has included games against Missouri, Depaul, Gonzaga, Kentucky and aforementioned Xavier. They've been favored in just one game so far this season and that was their lone victory against Eastern Illinois. Western Illinois is off to a 7-2 start and shot a blistering 52% from the field in a 17-point rout of Tennessee-Martin yesterday. Keep in mind, it was favored by double-digits in that contest. Off three straight victories and in this back-to-back spot, I think Western Illinois would simply be happy to earn a victory here - winning by margin should prove difficult. Note that CMU won by six, pushing the closing line of -6 in a road win over Western Illinois last season. We're talking about a considerable pointspread swing here due to the Chips lack of returning talent. I believe that swing will prove too steep. Take Central Michigan (8*). | |||||||
12-05-21 | Chargers v. Bengals OVER 49 | 41-22 | Win | 100 | 6 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Chargers continued their frustrating trend of alternating good and bad performances offensively in an ugly 28-13 loss in Denver last Sunday. As has been the case all season long, I expect them to bounce back offensively in this favorable matchup in Cincinnati on Sunday. After scoring 20 or less points this season, Los Angeles has put up 30, 24 and 41 points in its next game. Here, it faces a Bengals squad in line for a bit of a letdown after holding their last two opponents to a grand total of just 23 points. Keep in mind, in their two previous games they had been torched for 75 points. On the flip side, the Bengals are well-positioned to build off of last week's 41-point explosion against the Steelers as the Chargers check in having allowed 42, 34, 27, 24, 27, 37 and 28 points over their last six contests. Yes, Los Angeles is capable of stopping the pass, but the Bengals are just fine with pounding the football in Joe Mixon, who has quietly led one of the best ground attacks in football, averaging 4.5 yards per rush over their last three games. Unlike the last couple of games where the Bengals have been able to take their foot off the gas and throw the football only 29 and 25 times, I do expect the game script to require Joe Burrow to sling it around a little more here, also favoring the 'over'. Take the over (9*). | |||||||
12-04-21 | Iowa State v. Creighton -4.5 | Top | 64-58 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 36 m | Show |
CBB Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Creighton minus the points over Iowa State at 9 pm et on Saturday. I really like the way this one sets up for Creighton as it hosts undefeated Iowa State on Saturday night. We actually won with the Cyclones in their outright upset win over Xavier in last week's NIT Tip-off Tournament in Brooklyn. They're off to an impressive 7-0 start that also includes a victory over a team that entered the season with National Title aspirations in Memphis. Still, I expect the Blue Jays to prove to be too much for the Cyclones on this night. Creighton has just one loss on the season and while it checks in with a poor 3-5 ATS record it was asked to lay more points than it is here tonight in four of those five previous ATS defeats. The Blue Jays do come in with some positive momentum after laying waste to a quality North Dakota State team last time out, winning by 25 points as eight-point favorites. While Creighton is known for its offense, it has put on a defensive clinic here at home this season, holding opponents to just 60.2 points per game on 35.3% shooting. Here, we'll note that Creighton is a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last six games after giving up 60 or less points, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 20.5 points. Take Creighton (10*). | |||||||
12-04-21 | Spurs v. Warriors OVER 217 | 112-107 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Antonio and Golden State at 8:40 pm et on Saturday. This will mark the first meeting between these two teams this season after all three matchups last season stayed 'under' the total. Keep in mind, the lone matchup last season here in San Francisco totaled 220 points which would be enough to eclipse tonight's total. The Warriors cruised to a blowout win over the Devin Booker-less Suns last night. We won with Golden State in that game. Here, the Warriors host a Spurs squad riding a three-game winning streak and having put up two of its five highest scoring outputs of the season in their last two games. The Spurs know they're not going to win a defensive slugfest here - they need to outgun the Warriors. That's because Golden State averages just shy of 117 points per game at home this season. Since the start of November the Warriors have been extremely consistent in terms of scoring production here at home, posting totals of 114, 126, 120, 127, 123, 119, 119, 116, 118 and 118 points. I don't think the Spurs have the defense to knock them off course here. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
12-04-21 | Wake Forest v. Pittsburgh -3 | Top | 21-45 | Win | 100 | 31 h 8 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Year. My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over Wake Forest at 8 pm et on Saturday. This should be an entertaining affair between two teams that have brought a 'defense-optional' mentality to the table this season. I simply have more faith in the Panthers to get a few more stops than I do in the Demon Deacons to do so on Saturday night in Charlotte. Both teams come in sporting identical overall records but it's the Panthers that bring better form to the table. Wake Forest is just one game removed from dropping an ugly 48-27 decision against Clemson which as we know endured a down season. There was also a blown opportunity in Chapel Hill just a month ago as the Demon Deacons fell by a score of 58-55. Holding onto leads and keeping opponents out of the end zone has been a major problem for Wake Forest this season and it will undoubtedly have its hands full with Pitt on Saturday. The Panthers are coming off four straight wins and save for a somewhat inexplicable home loss to Miami have been lights out since the start of October (there was also an early season home loss against Western Michigan). This is a team that I believe has really grown over the course of the season - that was certainly evident in recent hard-fought wins over North Carolina and Virginia that previous Pitt squads may have faltered in. As much as I like what Sam Hartman and Wake can do offensively, I'm not confident that its defense can do anything to slow a highly-efficient Pitt offense here. Take Pittsburgh (10*). | |||||||
12-04-21 | Islanders -135 v. Red Wings | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -135 | 33 h 51 m | Show |
NHL Eastern Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on New York over Detroit at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the Islanders in Thursday's tough 2-1 overtime loss to the surging Sharks. I won't hesitate to go back to the well on Saturday, however, as the Isles hit the road looking to pick up a crucial two points against the red hot Wings. New York has now dropped nine straight games, influenced largely by Covid-related absences. The Isles are as healthy as they've been in quite some time now though, and picking up a point in Thursday's overtime loss could certainly be viewed as a positive. Saturday's game opens a stretch of three in a row against likely non-playoff teams, so they'll need to take full advantage. While Detroit has won four games in a row, only one of those wins was a real head-turner and that came in Boston in a game where the Wings were outshot by a 42-16 margin. Here, we find the Wings averaging just 1.8 goals, outscored by an average margin of 0.7 goals the last 19 times they've played at home off a home win. Under coach Jeff Blashill, the Wings have gone 19-37 when coming off four or five wins in their last six games, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 0.6 goals in that situation. Note that the Isles have taken each of the last three meetings in this series by a combined 16-4 margin and have come away victorious in four of their last five trips to Detroit. Take New York (10*). | |||||||
12-04-21 | Maple Leafs v. Wild -110 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 33 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. The Leafs are rolling right now, winners of five games in a row and 10 of their last 11 overall. I think they'll meet their match on Saturday, however. The Wild are red hot as well, having also won five games in a row. They can wrap up a perfect 5-0 homestand with a victory on Saturday night. Note that the Wild have gone 9-2 here on home ice this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.7 goals. The Leafs are 7-3 on the road but average just 3.3 goals per game away from home compared to Minnesota's 4.6 goals per game on home ice. Here, we'll note that the Leafs are a woeful 11-25 in their last 36 games after winning five or more games in a row, as is the case here, outscored by 0.9 goals on average in that spot. The Leafs have taken the last two matchups between these two teams in Minnesota but the most recent came back in December 2019. Prior to those two games the Wild had taken five straight home meetings against Toronto. Take Minnesota (8*). | |||||||
12-04-21 | Houston +10.5 v. Cincinnati | 20-35 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston plus the points over Cincinnati at 4 pm et on Saturday. I'm a believer in this Houston team and think it can finally give Cincinnati a run after dropping the last two matchups in this series in blowout fashion. The Bearcats are the hunted at this point as they try to hold on to their undefeated record and potentially earn a coveted CFP spot. The blowout win over SMU two weeks ago was impressive to say the least, but we know that the Bearcats aren't invincible. We saw it in a narrow win over Tulsa. We saw it in an eventual lopsided result at Tulane. Even last week, the Bearcats didn't look overly impressive in disposing of East Carolina by a 35-13 score as they turned the ball over three times, ran for less than four yards per rush and completed only 17 passes. Houston, meanwhile, has gone undefeated since opening the season with a tough loss to Texas Tech. The Cougars have demolished the majority of their opponents and it hasn't seemed to matter where they play, they've brought their 'A' game. I'm not sure that the Cincinnati defense has been quite as good as advertised with all of its talent and experience this season and I think Houston can find some success offensively in this one. The Bearcats likely once again get into the 30's, just as they have in the last two matchups between these teams, but this time the Cougars keep pace. Take Houston (7*). | |||||||
12-04-21 | Georgia -6 v. Alabama | 24-41 | Loss | -115 | 27 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Georgia minus the points over Alabama at 4 pm et on Saturday. There's a lot of talk about whether Alabama will get into the CFP by taking Georgia down to the wire, or perhaps even to overtime in Saturday's SEC Championship Game. I don't think we'll have to worry about that conversation as I expect the Bulldogs to win this one going away. It's not often we see Georgia favored in this series. In fact this is the first time it has been since back in 2015 when it was a -1.5-point favorite and lost by four touchdowns. I expect this game to play our much differently, however. The fact that Alabama needed overtime to get past Auburn in the Iron Bowl last Saturday was no fluke. The Crimson Tide just aren't the same juggernaut this season that we've been accustomed to seeing over the years. It happens. Not often, but it happens. Meanwhile, Georgia hasn't received nearly as much press as 'Bama (in my opinion anyway) but it continues to churn along, fresh off a 45-0 no-sweat rout of in-state rival Georgia Tech last Saturday. In fact, the Bulldogs really haven't had to break a sweat since pulling out a 10-3 win over Clemson way back in Week 1. Some would say that Alabama is more battle-tested. When it comes to college football though, I'll take the fresher team when the talent is virtually equal. Take Georgia (9*). | |||||||
12-04-21 | Utah State v. San Diego State -6 | Top | 46-13 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 22 m | Show |
CFB Conference Championship Game of the Year. My selection is on San Diego State minus the points over Utah State at 3 pm et on Saturday. We won with Utah State in last week's rout of New Mexico State while also cashing the 'under' in San Diego State's victory over Boise State. Here, I won't hesitate to lay the points with the Aztecs as I believe they match up well against Utah State's high-powered offensive attack. Yes, the Aggies can score. They have one of the most explosive offenses in the nation led by QB Carson Strong. I think they're going to be overmatched against an elite San Diego State defense here. After falling behind early we saw the Aztecs defense absolutely manhandle a good Boise State offense last Friday. Only Nevada has managed to throw on San Diego State this season and in that game the Wolfpack completely abandoned their ground game, running the ball only 15 times for a grand total of eight positive yards. The Aggies will look to run it a little bit but will likely run into a brick wall given the Aztecs have allowed just 2.6 yards per rush this season. Keep in mind, Utah State was held to only 17 points in a blowout loss against a quality Wyoming defense just two games back. Utah State hasn't fared well as an underdog in this series. In fact, the last three times it has been in that position it has lost by 31 (2020), 27 (2016) and 34 (2010) points. Take San Diego State (10*). | |||||||
12-04-21 | Baylor v. Oklahoma State -5.5 | 21-16 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma State minus the points over Baylor at 12 noon et on Saturday. We lost with Baylor in the first matchup between these two teams this season in a game that the Bears really had no business even sniffing out a cover in. The reality was, the Bears came within one stop (or one more first down by the Cowboys) of covering the pointspread in an eventual 10-point loss in Stillwater. Here, I don't expect things to be even that close. The Baylor defense was better positioned to go toe-to-toe in a slugfest with the Cowboys on that night. Now we find the Bears coming off a number of tight, hard-fought affairs and I can't help but think we might see them finally give in should they fall behind on Saturday. Oklahoma State has ravaged the majority of its recent opponents, up until Bedlam against rival Oklahoma last Saturday anyway. The Cowboys still ultimately prevailed in that rivalry showdown and I look for them to build off that performance and take another big step toward legitimate respectability on Saturday. Yes, they've earned plenty of respect this season, but not at the same level as some of the other power programs, despite their impressive play. Note that while the last matchup in this series was relatively close, the one before that went the Cowboys way by 39 points last December. Take Oklahoma State (9*). | |||||||
12-04-21 | Memphis -1 v. Ole Miss | 63-67 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Memphis minus the points over Ole Miss at 12 noon et on Saturday. We'll take a flyer on Penny Hardaway's Memphis Tigers as they try to bounce back from consecutive losses on Saturday. That mini-slump started with a stunning blowout loss against upstart Iowa State in the Championship Game of the NIT Tip-off Tournament in Brooklyn last week. The Tigers followed that up with a narrow three-point setback at Georgia. Here, they'll be looking to come away with something positive from this two-game SEC road trip. Ole Miss, on the other hand, is 'fat and happy' off consecutive double-digit wins albeit against vastly inferior opponents. In fact, this is the first time the Rebels will be in an underdog role this season so there is some reason to pump the brakes on their solid 5-2 record. Take Memphis (7*). | |||||||
12-03-21 | Oregon +3 v. Utah | 10-38 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oregon plus the points over Utah at 8 pm et on Friday. We won with Utah in the first matchup between these two teams two weeks ago but in Friday's Pac-12 Championship Game I'll go the other way and back the Ducks after we cashed with them in last week's win over rival Oregon State. Everything went wrong for Oregon in that aforementioned first meeting. The Ducks simply couldn't get anything going on offense and once they fell behind by a considerable margin they were forced to abandon their gameplan entirely. It's not as if the Utah offense accomplished much in that game though. The Utes ran for right around 4.0 yards per rush and completed only 10 passes. Here, we'll note that all three of Utah's losses this season came away from home. I don't think this is a team necessarily built for the fast track at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. Yes, Oregon also suffered both of its losses on the road this season. However, it also notched a win over National Championship contender Ohio State at the Horseshoe in Columbus. We haven't seen either team take consecutive wins in this series since the Ducks won in 2016 and 2017. Back-to-back wins for the Utes haven't come since they strung together consecutive victories over the Ducks between 1991 and 1994. Take Oregon (8*). | |||||||
12-03-21 | Holy Cross v. Villanova UNDER 49.5 | Top | 16-21 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
FCS Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Holy Cross and Villanova at 7 pm et on Friday. This matchup pits two of the best defensive teams in FCS. Holy Cross ran roughshod over the rest of the Patriot League but barely survived its playoff test against Sacred Heart last week, rallying for a 13-10 victory thanks to a touchdown in the closing seconds. The Crusaders struggled to get anything going offensively in that game and they'll be hard-pressed to bounce back in that regard against a championship-caliber defense in Villanova. Note that the Wildcats earned a first-round bye so they'll be taking the field for the first time in a couple of weeks on Friday night - this is a team with true FCS Championship aspirations, entering as the five-seed. What Holy Cross can hang its hat on is its own stout defense. The Crusaders have an outstanding defensive line, camping out in opposing backfields all season to rank fifth in the country in sacks. Both teams would be wise to keep the football on the ground for much of the evening, noting that the two defenses have had a knack for forcing turnovers. Holy Cross ranks tied for second in the country in interceptions while Villanova sits just behind, tied for third. The Wildcats have allowed just 18 offensive touchdowns in 11 games so far this season. In terms of yards per play allowed, these two teams both sit inside the top-four in FCS. You get the picture. Many bettors simply looking for early action on Friday night might look to the 'over' with this total sitting in the 40's. I believe it's the wrong move, however, as this game has the potential to be a slugfest. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
12-03-21 | Fairfield v. Canisius OVER 141.5 | Top | 74-68 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
MAAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Fairfield and Canisius at 7 pm et on Friday. We've made just one play involving either of these teams this season and it was on the 'under' in Fairfield's 83-78 win over Stony Brook last week. In case you were wondering, we weren't close on that play as the final score eclipsed the total by 17 points. I won't make the same mistake again here. Fairfield's offense wasn't good last season but with virtually the entire squad returning there was plenty of potential entering the 2021-22 campaign. So far so good, as the Stags have scored 70+ points in five of six games and check in shooting 47.5% from the field and 37.6% from three-point range. They don't figure to face much resistance against Canisius as the Golden Griffins have allowed the opposition to shoot just shy of 47% from the field and may face a bit of a system shock here as the Stags average seven more three-point attempts than what they've faced so far this season. The fact that Canisius managed to score 75 points despite shooting sub 38% from the field against Cornell last time out is telling. The Griffins are playing at a fast pace, hoisting up a whopping 65 field goal attempts per game including 32 from three-point range. There's reason to believe they can go off offensively in this one against a Fairfield squad that has allowed anyone with a pulse to shoot 50% or better this season. This has the makings of a big game for super sixth-man Malek Green of Canisius. He's still working his way back to 100% health after foot surgery last season. He's averaging 16.6 points per game in just over 24 minutes per game this season and with the Griffins having not played since Sunday should see plenty of action in this one. Key cog Armon Harried shot a miserable 1-for-10 from the field against Cornell but should bounce back here. He's just one game removed from a 22-point effort against Coppin State. Virtually all trends point to an 'under' result here but I'm confident enough that both teams have made enough progression offensively that we could be in for a track meet on Friday night. With both projected to finish in the bottom half of the MAAC standings they can certainly use all the wins they can get - make no mistake, this is an important conference opener for both teams. I expect both to come in with an aggressive mentality, knowing they'll likely need to put up 70+ points to prevail. While the last meeting between these teams totaled only 119 points, it featured just seven made three-pointers. The two teams are combining to average 20 made threes per game this season. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
12-03-21 | Western Kentucky -3 v. UTSA | 41-49 | Loss | -114 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Western Kentucky minus the points over UTSA at 7 pm et on Friday. Western Kentucky might be the best team no one is paying attention to as we head into Conference Championship weekend. The Hilltoppers haven't lost since dropping a 52-46 decision against the same UTSA squad they'll face in Friday's C-USA Championship Game - reeling off seven straight wins while going 6-1 ATS in the process. That earlier showdown with the Roadrunners came at a tough time for the Hilltoppers as they were beaten down following three consecutive games against Army, Indiana and Michigan State. Needless to say, the Hilltoppers will be looking for an ounce of revenge in this one. The Roadrunners have received far more press this season thanks to their flawless 11-0 record before falling by 22 points on the road against North Texas last week. You could argue that was a 'meaningless' game so it was no surprise UTSA lost. However, if it was meaningless, why were QB Frank Harris and RB Sincere McCormick on the field? The Roadrunners enter this contest having dropped the cash in three straight games. While their passing game was efficient early in the season, that hasn't been the case down the stretch as they've completed just 102-of-171 (59.6%) of their passes over the last six games. With a total sitting in the low-70's this game obviously has high shootout potential and in that situation, I favor the Hilltoppers and their electric offense that has moved the ball at will through the air all season long. Interestingly, the Roadrunners haven't really faced any offenses of the sort since running into the Hilltoppers earlier this season (note that WKU racked up over 500 passing yards in that wild 52-46 loss). The Hilltoppers were favored by 3.5 points in the first matchup this season. I actually think they're in an even better spot here as the perfect conditions inside the Alamodome favor their explosive offense. Take Western Kentucky (9*). | |||||||
12-02-21 | Valparaiso v. Drake -12.5 | 66-73 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Drake minus the points over Valparaiso at 9 pm et on Thursday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Drake Bulldogs on Thursday night as they look to put a three-game losing streak behind them and lay waste to an overmatched Valpo squad. We actually won with Valpo last week as it staged an outright upset of Jacksonville State. Since then, the Beacons have gone 2-1 but will be taking a big step up in class in their Missouri Valley Conference opener against Drake on Thursday. The Bulldogs, along with Loyola-Chicago, can be considered the class of the MVC. It's a competitive conference to be sure, as we noted in last night's play on Evansville over Southern Illinois. However, it is a little top-heavy. Yes, the Bulldogs enter this game on a three-game slide, but those three losses came against very capable opponents in Belmont, Alabama and North Texas and all three games were close. Prior to that stretch, Drake had opened the season with three straight wins including a 99-50 dismantling of South Dakota. While I do think we've seen the best we're going to get from Valpo (in that comeback win over Jacksonville State), I don't believe the same can be said for Drake. This is certainly a game that it has had circled since that loss to North Texas last weekend and I look for the Bulldogs to roll, noting that they've gone 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a home favorite, outscoring opponents by a whopping average margin of 23.9 points. Meanwhile, Valpo is just 1-8 ATS in its last nine games after scoring 80+ points in its last contest, as is the case here. Take Drake (10*). | |||||||
12-02-21 | Cowboys v. Saints OVER 47.5 | 27-17 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and New Orleans at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. NOTE: Will downgrade this to a 7* play with Alvin Kamara officially ruled out. I can really see this game going a couple of different ways - either the Cowboys take their frustrations out on the reeling Saints and ultimately run up the score, or New Orleans rides the emotion of playing a second straight primetime home game after last week's debacle against Buffalo, with it's do-it-all RB Alvin Kamara back on the field to an upset victory. Either way, I believe we're set up well for a high-scoring affair. We've seen this total come down a bit since opening. That's largely due to the uncertainty around who will start at quarterback for the Saints and who will be healthy enough to take the field for the Cowboys offense. We're likely going to see Taysom Hill take over under center for the Saints. There's only one reason for that move, and that's to give the offense a spark after four consecutive losses. It's easy to forget that even with a struggling Trevor Siemian at quarterback for the majority of the action, the Saints had put up over 20 points in three consecutive games prior to last Thursday's blowout defeat. As I mentioned, the Saints are also likely to get RB Alvin Kamara back on the field for this one. I don't need to tell you that he's the heart-and-soul of this offense with Drew Brees having retired and Michael Thomas sidelined due to injury. Speaking of players getting back on the field, the Cowboys should have both Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb back for this one. Even without that dynamic duo, Dallas still scored 33 points in last week's overtime loss to the Raiders. As long as the Cowboys have a healthy Dak Prescott and Kellen Moore aggressively calling plays on offense, there's reason to believe they can light up the scoreboard. The Saints defense, while stout at times, has sagged lately, largely due to shouldering so much of the load over the course of the season. Over their last four games, the Saints have allowed opponents to connect on better than 72% of their passes. The last two meetings in this series have been extremely low-scoring, totaling just 23 and 22 points. That's only serving to give us additional value with the 'over' in this one. Take the over (7*). | |||||||
12-02-21 | Bulls v. Knicks +2 | Top | 119-115 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
NBA Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on New York plus the points over Chicago at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. The Knicks have been extremely uneven this season. They check into Thursday's showdown against the division-rival Bulls sporting an 11-10 overall record. They have managed to split a pair of meetings with the Bulls, both in Chicago, with the lone loss coming by a single point. I simply feel that the case can be made that the wrong team is being favored in this one. Chicago couldn't miss in Tuesday's blowout home win over the Hornets. The Bulls shot just shy of 60% from the field in that game. I wouldn't count on a repeat performance here. The Knicks allowed the Nets to shoot better than 48% two nights ago - only the third time this season they've yielded north of 48% shooting. The last two times they did so, they held their next opponent to just 38.5% and 35.5% shooting, going 2-0 SU and ATS in those two contests. Here, we'll note that the Knicks are an incredible 30-9 ATS in their last 39 games with a pointspread between +3 and -3, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 5.2 points. They're also 37-19 ATS in their last 56 games when revenging a same-season loss against an opponent. While New York is likely to be without R.J. Barrett in this one that's perhaps not as big of a concern as it's being made out to be as Barrett has struggled, topping out at 17 points in his last 12 games after scoring 20 points or more in his previous five contests. Take New York (10*). | |||||||
12-02-21 | Sharks v. Islanders -130 | 2-1 | Loss | -130 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over San Jose at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the Islanders to finally earn their first win in their new building on Thursday as they get back on the ice after a Covid outbreak forced the postponement of a couple of games. For the Isles, they need to start winning now - as head coach Barry Trotz put it, these upcoming games are basically playoff games due to the giant hole they've dug themselves. I like their chances of busting out of their slump here against a Sharks squad that is 'fat and happy' off consecutive wins to open their current road trip. Note that San Jose will turn to Adin Hill between the pipes in the front half of this back-to-back spot. Hill has been the weaker of the Sharks two goaltenders so far this season, recording a .897 save percentage compared to James Reimer's .934. Take New York (6*). | |||||||
12-02-21 | Blues v. Lightning UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
NHL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Tampa Bay at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. We saw seven total goals between these two teams in the front half of this home-and-home series two nights ago. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair as the scene shifts to Tampa on Thursday. Note that the 'under' is 11-3 in the Blues last 14 road games when coming off consecutive contests in which they allowed three goals or more, resulting in an average total of just 5.1 goals. Better still, the 'under' is a perfect 6-0 the last six times the Blues have played on the road after allowing 3+ goals in three straight games, producing an average total of only 4.0 goals. The Lightning will be looking to tighten things up after consecutive losses in which they allowed eight goals. Note that they're giving up just 2.6 goals per game on home ice this season. They should have Andrei Vasilevskiy back between the pipes after journeyman backup Brian Elliott manned the net in Tuesday's loss. Vasilevskiy owns a .926 save percentage this season compared to Elliott's .887. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
12-01-21 | Golden Knights -155 v. Ducks | 5-6 | Loss | -155 | 16 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Vegas over Anaheim at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. While the Ducks were involved in a shootout (win) in Los Angeles last night, the Golden Knights have been idle since Saturday's disappointing 3-2 home loss against the Oilers. Having dominated this series, I look for the Knights to get back on track here. The Ducks season has been interesting so far. They started the campaign by losing seven of their first nine games. Then they reeled off eight straight victories before losing four of their next six contests heading into this one. Vegas already skated to a 5-4 win over Anaheim in the first meeting between these two teams this season. Note that the Ducks are a miserable 5-23 the last 28 times they've sought revenge for a loss in which their opponent scored four goals or more, outscored by an average margin of 1.5 goals in that situation. Meanwhile, the Knights have outscored opponents by an average margin of 1.6 goals the last 14 times they've come off a one-goal loss against a division opponent, as is the case here. With Vegas as healthy as it has been all season and Anaheim in a tough back-to-back spot, I'll lay the chalk with the Knights. Take Vegas (7*). | |||||||
12-01-21 | Rockets v. Thunder -3 | Top | 114-110 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Oklahoma City minus the points over Houston at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. It's never easy to back a team after it just got hammered by the same opponent two nights earlier, but that's what we're going to do with the Thunder on Wednesday. Houston rolled to a 102-89 win over Oklahoma City on Monday - marking its third straight victory. Keep in mind, all three of those wins came at home. The Rockets check in 0-11 on the road, where they've been outscored by an average margin of 12.5 points this season. The Thunder enter this contest riding a six-game losing streak but Monday's blowout loss was actually their first ATS loss in their last seven games. After shooting a woeful 35.6% from the field on Monday, I look for a strong bounce-back performance here as the schedule only gets tougher with a three-game road trip up next. Note that the Rockets are just 12-23 ATS the last 35 times they've come off an ATS victory, outscored by 8.5 points on average in that situation. Take Oklahoma City (10*). | |||||||
12-01-21 | South Carolina v. Coastal Carolina +6.5 | Top | 56-80 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
CBB Game of the Week. My selection is on Coastal Carolina plus the points over South Carolina at 7 pm et on Wednesday. While the Coastal Carolina football program has been making most of the noise going back to last season, the basketball team can play as well. The Chanticleers check in just 2-2 on the season but I expect them to give South Carolina a run on Wednesday night. The Gamecocks have reeled off four straight wins, going 3-1 ATS in the process. It's worth noting though that they're turning the ball over 17 times a game compared to Coastal Carolina's average of only 10. Riding a winning streak and with a big showdown against Georgetown on deck, it would be easy for the relatively inexperienced to overlook the Chanticleers here. Note that South Carolina has been outscored by an average margin of 3.3 points in its last 15 games when coming off a win and has also been outscored by 3.0 points on average in its last 21 lined road contests. Take Coastal Carolina (10*). | |||||||
11-30-21 | Capitals v. Panthers -133 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Florida over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. We missed the mark fading the Capitals on Sunday in Carolina as the Hurricanes came out flat only to rally from 2-0 down to tie the game before eventually falling 4-2. I won't hesitate to go back to the well again on Tuesday, however, as Washington continues its road trip against the revenge-minded Panthers in Sunrise. Florida dropped a 4-3 decision in Washington on November 26th. That sets the Panthers up well here, noting that they've gone 19-8 the last 27 times they've been in a revenge spot, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.7 goals along the way. Off a stunning 4-1 loss to Seattle on Saturday, it's also worth noting that Florida has gone 9-1 the last 10 times it has come off a game in which it was held to a goal or less, outscoring opponents by 1.1 goals on average in that spot. The Capitals can match a season-high with a fourth consecutive victory on Tuesday. Note that their previous four-game winning streak included victories over the likes of Buffalo and Detroit. Florida enters this contest trying to avoid a third straight defeat. It did lose four in a row earlier this month but all four of those losses came on the road. The Panthers check into this game sporting an incredible 11-1 home record, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 2.0 goals. Take Florida (5*). | |||||||
11-29-21 | Seahawks v. Washington Football Team OVER 46.5 | Top | 15-17 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 53 m | Show |
NFL MNF Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Washington at 8:15 pm et on Monday. The Seahawks season is long lost and after scoring a combined 13 points in Russell Wilson's first two games back from injury it's no surprise that bettors are spooked from backing them, or the 'over' in this matchup on Monday night. Seattle's last four games haven't come close to sniffing an 'over' result but I expect a different story to unfold here. There's little reason for the Seahawks to hold anything back from an offensive gameplanning standpoint in this one. Yes, Pete Carroll is always going to employ a run-first gameplan but due to a limited backfield as a result of a cluster of injuries, we've seen the Seahawks shift away from that somewhat since Russ' return. Game script has had something to do with that as well as the Seahawks have been trailing for the majority of the time in their last two games. Nevertheless, we've seen Seattle run the ball just 16 and 19 times in its last two games while throwing it a combined 66 times. Here, the Seahawks should benefit from facing a depleted Washington defense that is without its top two pass rushers in Chase Young and Montez Sweat. Opponents have rightfully attacked Washington through the air with considerable success, completing 90-of-122 (74%) pass attempts over the last four games. On the flip side, the Seahawks defense has been mercilessly assaulted by opposing passing games, allowing an average of 40 pass attempts per game this season. Last week, the Colt McCoy-led Cardinals offense completed 35-of-44 passes for 318 yards through the air. Washington QB Taylor Heinecke is an underrated passer and isn't afraid to take chances, which should work to his benefit as his receivers led by Terry McLaurin own an advantage against the Seahawks depleted secondary (they lost CB Tre Brown to injury in last week's game). It sounds like TE Logan Thomas and WR Curtis Samuel could be back on Monday as well to further bolster a very capable Washington offense. Heinecke should have plenty of time to operate against a Seahawks defense that sits last in the league in sack rate this season. Last year's matchup between these two teams produced just 35 points here in Washington. That, along with the fact that both teams have strongly trended to the 'under' in recent weeks and months helps keep this total in a very reasonable range. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
11-29-21 | Hornets +5.5 v. Bulls | 119-133 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Charlotte plus the points over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Monday. With the Hornets coming off an embarrassing loss in Houston two nights ago the majority of bettors will undoubtedly be looking to back the Bulls at home on Monday night. After all, Chicago has taken three straight meetings in this series, both SU and ATS. It is worth noting, however, that the last time the Bulls hosted the Hornets they closed as just 1.5-point favorites. I believe we're getting considerable value with Charlotte here, noting that despite Saturday's upset loss still checks in a solid 7-2-1 ATS over its last 10 games. The Bulls, meanwhile, have dropped the cash in three of their last four contests and have only managed to split their last 14 games from an ATS perspective. It's certainly worth noting that the Hornets are averaging an impressive 114.2 points per game against opponents that allow an average of just 107.0 ppg this season. While their defensive play has left a lot to be desired the Bulls aren't particularly imposing from an offensive standpoint, averaging just 106.5 ppg and outscoring the opposition by only 3.3 points on average at the United Center this season. Take Charlotte (8*). | |||||||
11-28-21 | Vikings v. 49ers OVER 48.5 | 26-34 | Win | 100 | 18 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and San Francisco at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the Vikings huge win over the Packers last Sunday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Minnesota's offense has taken flight ever since that embarrassing performance at home against the Cowboys on Halloween Night. Over their last three games, the Vikes have scored a whopping 92 points. While the 49ers have allowed just 20 points in their last two games combined I don't see this as an all-that-imposing matchup for the Minnesota offense. Vikes WR Justin Jefferson is absolutely abusing opposing secondaries and the 49ers pass defense doesn't match up particularly well. Meanwhile, the 49ers offense has quietly come around, scoring 30 or more points in three of their last four contests. A healthy TE George Kittle has certainly made a big difference. Here, the Niners catch an undermanned Vikings defense that showed plenty of holes in last week's narrow victory over the Packers. Whether the Niners choose to attack the Vikes on the ground or through the air they should be able to find considerable success. Take the over (9*). | |||||||
11-28-21 | Chargers -2.5 v. Broncos | Top | 13-28 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 45 m | Show |
AFC West Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Denver at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. Somewhat inexplicably, the Broncos would actually pull even with the Chargers in the AFC West standings with a victory on Sunday. I don't think we'll see them get it though. Los Angeles has been a bit of a perplexing case this season and enters this game off consecutive ATS losses. There's no reason for the Chargers to be anything but confident after enduring a furious Steelers comeback last Sunday night in L.A. The Broncos meanwhile come off their bye week, which came on the heels of a blowout home loss against the Eagles (we won with Philadelphia in that game). Chargers QB Justin Herbert has had some success in two previous matchups against Vic Fangio's Broncos while Denver has proven to be vulnerable against the run and Chargers RB Austin Ekeler is playing some of the best football of his career right now. Broncos QB Teddy Bridgewater does have his full compliment of weapons back at his disposal but Denver's offensive line remains a concern. Until the Broncos hand the reins over to rookie RB JaVonte Williams rather than veteran Melvin Gordon I believe their offense will be held back. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
11-28-21 | Capitals v. Hurricanes -150 | 4-2 | Loss | -150 | 5 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Carolina over Washington at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. With the Capitals 'fat and happy' off a perfect 2-0 homestand, we'll back the Hurricanes to prevail on Sunday afternoon in Raleigh. The Canes wrapped up a successful 4-2 road trip with a 6-3 win in Philadelphia on Friday. That snapped a two-game skid. Note that the Canes have given up an average of just 1.3 goals the last nine times they've played at home after losing two of their last three games, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.1 goals in that spot. Carolina is allowing only 1.7 goals per game on home ice this season, outscoring opponents by an impressive 1.9 goals on average. Take Carolina (6*). | |||||||
11-28-21 | Eagles v. Giants UNDER 45.5 | Top | 7-13 | Win | 100 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
NFC East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Eagles are coming off a high-scoring game against the Saints last week - in fact, they've seen the 'over' cash in four of their last five contests. It generally takes two to push a game 'over' the total, however, and I'm not sure we'll see a shootout in this one. The Giants defense hasn't really been the problem this season. I expect to see them keep things simple as they try to contain the big plays and minimize the effectiveness of Eagles QB Jalen Hurts on Sunday. On the flip side, New York hands the offensive keys over to Freddie Kitchens after firing Jason Garrett on Tuesday. I don't envision a sudden turnaround for the G-Men offensively under Kitchens. If anything we'll likely see a renewed focus on the ground game with RB Saquon Barkley presumably back to full health. The Eagles are no pushovers against the run, however, allowing 119 rush yards or less in seven straight games entering Sunday's contest. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is on a stellar 43-19 run when the Eagles come off a game that totaled 60 or more points, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 42.2 points. The 'under' is also 12-3 in the Giants last 15 games with a total of between 42.5 and 49 points, producing an average total of 39.2 points. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
11-27-21 | Pelicans v. Jazz -12.5 | Top | 105-127 | Win | 100 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Utah minus the points over New Orleans at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. I think a lot of bettors are spooked when it comes to the Jazz and can you really blame them after Utah dropped a stunning 98-97 decision against these same Pelicans on Friday as a 13.5-point favorite. I'm not overly concerned about the Jazz's uneven play recently and fully expect them to bounce back with a strong performance on Saturday night. Last night's game really amounted to a 'perfect storm' of sorts for the Jazz. Rudy Gobert scored only nine points. Donovan Mitchell shot 6-of-21 from the field. Jordan Clarkson - usually a steady contributor off the bench - shot 3-of-12 and managed only seven points. There was really nothing particularly special about New Orleans' performance. It scored right around its season average on the road. While the Pelicans have now won consecutive games, keep in mind, this is a team that has lost games by 16 points in Chicago, 13 points in Sacramento, 41 points in Golden State, 16 points in Dallas, 15 points in Miami, 17 points in Indiana...you get the picture. Meanwhile, half of Utah's six home victories this season have come by at least 16 points. The Jazz check in a solid 65-42 ATS when playing at home off an upset loss as a home favorite. Take Utah (10*). | |||||||
11-27-21 | Blue Jackets v. Blues -160 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis over Columbus at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. The Blues suffered a 3-2 overtime loss against an improved Blackhawks squad yesterday afternoon - their second straight defeat after dropping a game in Detroit on Wednesday. The season hasn't gone the way the Blues would have hoped so far but it's still early. The problem is, when you look ahead at their upcoming schedule, things are about to get a lot tougher with their next four games coming against the Lightning and Panthers - two of the league's best teams. Needless to say, St. Louis could certainly use a victory here on Saturday. Note that the Blue Jackets have already confirmed that Joonas Korpisalo will start in goal on Saturday. He represents a considerable downgrade from regular starter Elvis Merzlikins with the Jackets having gone 3-3 in Korpisalo's six starts as he has posted a .894 save percentage. We may see Blues backup Ville Husso as well but that's not necessarily a bad thing. Husso has recorded a .952 save percentage in three games this season with St. Louis winning two of those three contests. Columbus rolls into this contest riding a three-game winning streak - matching their longest of the season. Note that they've allowed 3.7 goals per game on the road this season. Meanwhile, the Blues are giving up just 2.4 goals per game on home ice, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.2 goals. Take St. Louis (6*). | |||||||
11-27-21 | Texas A&M v. LSU UNDER 47 | 24-27 | Loss | -114 | 8 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Texas A&M and LSU at 7 pm et on Saturday. I'm not expecting much of the way of offensive fireworks in this SEC showdown on Saturday night. Texas A&M will be looking for a soft landing as it wraps up the regular season with this winnable road game against LSU. I'm not convinced we're going to see the Aggies take a ton of chances on offense in this one, knowing that they likely won't need to score much to prevail. Keep in mind, LSU ended a string of three straight games scoring 17 or less points by putting up just 27 against lowly Louisiana-Monroe last week. If the Tigers are going to stay competitive in this game they're going to have to play tough defense and we know they're capable of that. LSU held mighty Alabama to only 20 points, on the road no less, earlier this month. We've certainly seen the Tigers play their best defensive football down the stretch, giving up just 50 points combined over their last three games. The 'under' has cashed in the last two meetings in this series with the two teams taking turns scoring just seven points in road losses. Take the under (7*). | |||||||
11-27-21 | Oregon State v. Oregon -6.5 | Top | 29-38 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
CFB Pac-12 Game of the Year. My selection is on Oregon minus the points over Oregon State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We won by fading Oregon in its blowout loss on the road against Utah last week. I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the Ducks as they host the 'Civil War' against rival Oregon State on Saturday. The Ducks have been dealt blow after blow in terms of injuries this season but they've persevered and check into this regular season finale sporting a 9-2 record. While most are down on the Ducks after last week's ugly performance, we're being afforded a short pointspread in my opinion. Oregon State is 'fat and happy' off consecutive home wins to become Bowl eligible. The Beavers certainly want to run the football but here they're facing an Oregon squad that allows just 3.5 yards per rush against opponents that average 4.3 yards per rush. Oregon State has only posted more than 19 pass completions once in its last nine games and that came against lowly Colorado. Note that Oregon has held its last three opponents to just 45-of-81 (56%) passing for 569 yards. Take Oregon (10*). | |||||||
11-27-21 | Hawaii v. Wyoming UNDER 48.5 | 38-14 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Hawaii and Wyoming at 3 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams are coming off 'over' results last week. I look for a different story to unfold on Saturday afternoon in Laramie, however. Keep in mind, this has been a low-scoring matchup in recent years with the last two meetings producing just 30 and 38 points. While Hawaii did hang 50 points on Colorado State last week, consistency simply hasn't been there for the Rainbow Warriors offense this season. Case in point, two weeks ago they were held to just 13 points in a two-touchdown loss at UNLV. Here, the Warriors will be up against a tough Wyoming defense that has allowed just 5.7 yards per pass attempt against opponents that average 7.1 yppa. The Cowboys haven't been quite as tough against the run but the Warriors simply don't have the horses to expose that weakness. Wyoming delivered a 44-17 win over Utah State last week - a somewhat stunning result as it was a 5.5-point underdog heading in. Performances like that have been few and far between for a team that likes to run the football and let its defense take care of the rest. Note that the Cowboys have attempted just 49 passes combined in their last three games. The 'under' checks in 18-4 the last 22 times Wyoming has come off a game that totaled 60+ points, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 19-7 in Hawaii's last 26 games following a conference win by seven points or less. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
11-27-21 | Miami-FL -21 v. Duke | Top | 47-10 | Win | 100 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
CFB Game of the Week. My selection is on Miami minus the points over Duke at 12:30 pm et on Saturday. Duke's season mercifully comes to an end on Saturday as it hosts Miami in yet another unfavorable spot. The Blue Devils season has been circling the drain for weeks - months really. They enter this contest having dropped the cash in five straight games and have been absolutely throttled by opposing offenses, allowing 45 points or more in all five of those ATS losses. While they have managed to score 29, 17 and 22 points over their last three games, there's little reason for optimism here. Note that in last week's 62-22 rout at the hands of Louisville they attempted a whopping 50 passes but gained only 275 yards through the air. Duke's ground attack has churned out plenty of yardage but it's been volume-based. Miami's defensive weakness this season has been against the pass but much of the damage was done in just two games - against Alabama and Pittsburgh. I don't need to tell you that Duke isn't Alabama or Pitt. When these two teams met last season Miami rolled to a 48-0 victory. We're dealing with a higher pointspread this time around but I believe the move is warranted. The Hurricanes have caught a spark down the stretch and can improve their Bowl standing with a victory here. Take Miami (10*). | |||||||
11-26-21 | North Carolina +6.5 v. NC State | 30-34 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on North Carolina plus the points over North Carolina State at 7 pm et on Friday. You can be sure the Tar Heels would like nothing more than to spoil the Wolfpack's chances of reaching the ACC Championship Game with a victory here on Friday night. It's been a largely disappointing season for North Carolina but all is certainly not lost. The Tar Heels will still be going Bowling and can perhaps improve their standing in that regard with a win over in-state rival N.C. State here. This matchup has actually been no contest in the last two meetings with North Carolina rolling to a 41-10 road win two years ago before delivering a 48-21 victory in Chapel Hill last season. The Tar Heels were double-digit favorites in both of those games and have to feel at least a little bit disrespected as nearly touchdown underdogs in this one. Yes, QB Sam Howell is banged-up with an apparent injury to his non-throwing shoulder but he was held out of last week's game as a precaution and is expected to play on Friday night. The real star of the Tar Heels show has become their ground game anyway. They're churning out 212 rush yards per game on 5.3 yards per rush this season. Of course their aerial attack remains a real factor, averaging nearly 500 passing yards per game on 8.9 yards per pass attempt. While N.C. State enters this game 'fat and happy' off a 41-17 drubbing of Syracuse and sporting a perfect 6-0 home record this season, North Carolina has yet to taste victory away from Chapel Hill. The Tar Heels couldn't have gotten off to much worse of a start on the road against Pittsburgh two games back but in spite of that still managed to force overtime in an eventual 30-23 loss. They also gave an outstanding Notre Dame squad a run in a 44-34 loss in South Bend back on October 30th. My point is, as bad as things have gone for UNC at times this season, there have been some positives and I don't expect them to go away quietly on Friday night. Take North Carolina (8*). | |||||||
11-26-21 | Oklahoma State v. Oral Roberts OVER 148 | Top | 78-77 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'over' between Oklahoma State and Oral Roberts at 4 pm et on Friday. You might be hard-pressed to find a worse defensive team than Oral Roberts at this given moment in time. In two games against Division-I opponents, it ranks 343rd in the country in opponents floor percentage. Outside of that it has faced a laundry list of no-name schools to put it mildly. Now it has to contend with a red hot Oklahoma State squad that has hung 80+ points on it in each of the last two meetings over the last two years and checks in off a 96-point effort against Charleston. Oral Roberts knows it is going to have to light up the scoreboard in order to keep pace in this one, and I think it can. Note that the Cowboys opponents have averaged just 20 three-point attempts per game so far this season. Oral Roberts averages 34. In its last two matchups against Oklahoma State, ORU hoisted up 32 and 33 three-point attempts, scoring 75 and 78 points in those two contests. The 75-point effort came despite shooting a woeful 33.8% overall and 21.9% from beyond the arc in the 2019 matchup. The Cowboys ride into this game on a three-game 'over' streak and I think it continues for at least one more game. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
11-26-21 | Jets v. Wild -124 | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 4 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota over Winnipeg at 3:35 pm et on Friday. We've been high on the Wild all season and after snapping their brief losing streak with a shootout win in New Jersey on Wednesday (we were on them in that game as well) we'll back them to add to the Jets misery on Friday. It's been over a week since the Jets last even collected a point. They're struggling mightily right now and a trip to Minnesota doesn't appear to be an ideal spot to break out of their funk. Note that Winnipeg is 0-5 the last five times it has been seeking revenge for a loss in which its opponent scored 5+ goals, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 1.8 goals in that situation. Meanwhile, Minnesota checks in a solid 36-20 after losing two of its last three games over the last 2+ seasons, averaging 3.2 goals and outscoring the opposition by 0.4 goals on average in that spot. Take Minnesota (10*). | |||||||
11-26-21 | UTEP v. UAB UNDER 50.5 | Top | 25-42 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
C-USA Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between UTEP and UAB at 2 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring results last week. UTEP matched a season-high for points scored, hanging 38 on Rice in a 10-point victory. UAB fell in a wild one against UTSA, dropping a 34-31 decision. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair as the Miners and Blazers wrap up the C-USA regular season. Both teams want to run the football on offense but it's notable that the two defenses have held up well against the run, with UTEP allowing 3.7 yards per rush and UAB even better, giving up just 3.0 yards per rush against opponents that average 4.2 ypr this season. Note that UTEP also checks in allowing just 6.8 yards per pass attempt. UAB has been slightly worse in that department, giving up 7.0 yards per pass attempt but that's against opponents that average 7.4 yppa. While UAB has given up north of 550 passing yards in its last two games combined, those two contests came on the road against quality offenses in Marshall and UTSA. Despite last week's 38-point outburst, UTEP is no offensive juggernaut having scored 30, 13, 26, 25 and 17 points in its five road games this season. UAB scored a season-high 52 points in its most recent home game but that came against a reeling Louisiana Tech squad. Both of these teams will be going Bowling this season and I anticipate a tightly-contested affair on Friday. Take the under (10*). |
Service | Profit |
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Ricky Tran | $756 |
ProSportsPicks | $632 |
Joseph D'Amico | $510 |
Joey Tron | $450 |
Tom Macrina | $399 |
Nick Parsons | $344 |
Sean Murphy | $306 |
Jack Jones | $303 |
William Burns | $233 |
Dan Kaiser | $220 |