Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09-14-20 | Stars v. Golden Knights OVER 5 | 3-2 | Push | 0 | 23 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Vegas at 8:10 pm et on Monday. I really think it's only a matter of time before the Golden Knights break through against Anton Khudobin and the Stars. Vegas once again peppered Khudobin, particularly late in the game when they were trailing by a single goal on Saturday night. You have to think Khudobin will show some cracks in his armor at some point considering just how much hockey he has played and how much rubber he has faced over the last month-and-a-half. Meanwhile, the Stars have really impressed me with their ability to come up with big goals when they need them. I simply feel this is the game where the floodgates open a little bit, as this one gets 'over' the relatively low total. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-14-20 | Twins v. White Sox OVER 9 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
A.L. Central Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'over' in the Windy City on Monday night. Jose Berrios will take the ball for Minnesota. He was extremely consistent over the last three seasons but has struggled a bit here in 2020. Berrios' strikeouts per nine innings are up but so are his walks. He's handing out 4.2 free passes per nine innings compared to just 2.3 last season. Here, he'll face a White Sox lineup that's poised to take advantage of any and all mistakes as they rank 4th in the majors in runs per game and second in team batting average. Dylan Cease will counter for Chicago. He has dropped both his ERA and WHIP compared to his rookie season a year ago but that's not saying much as he struggled mightily in 14 outings in 2019. His strikeouts per nine innings are way down while his walks are still up around four per nine innings and he's still getting tagged for just shy of two home runs per nine frames. The Twins rank T17th in runs per game but sit in the top half of baseball in team batting average, on-base percentage and on-base plus slugging. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-14-20 | Braves v. Orioles OVER 10 | 1-14 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Baltimore at 7:35 pm et on Monday. This is a high total but it's up there for a reason. Touki Toussaint will take the ball for the Braves. He has struggled throughout his MLB career and for the most part has been pitching out of the bullpen this year. While his strikeouts per nine innings are up, his walks are sitting at a brutal 5.4 per nine innings. He's also giving up over two home runs per nine frames which doesn't bode well as he heads to Baltimore. While the O's have had a tough time lately and rank T17th in runs per game, they still sit in the top 10 in team batting average and slugging percentage. Look for them to get to Toussaint tonight. No teams scores more runs per game than the Braves and they should be able to tee off on O's starter Jorge Lopez. The Royals castoff has posted a 6.38 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 24 innings of work this season which is pretty much par for the course. He's starting out of necessity here and I don't expect him to fare well. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-14-20 | Steelers -5.5 v. Giants | Top | 26-16 | Win | 100 | 22 h 3 m | Show |
NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over New York at 7:15 pm et on Monday. This really is a tough opening week matchup for the Giants as they try to turn the page on what has been a tough era of G-Men football. The Steelers are reloaded for another run with a healthy Ben Roethlisberger under center. All indications are that his arm is back at full strength as he looks to get the Pittsburgh offense back on track following a tumultuous 2019 campaign. Roethlisberger should feast on a Giants pass defense that was absolutely horrendous last season and doesn't figure to improve here in 2020. Even if Big Ben doesn't dominate, the Steelers should enjoy plenty of success on the ground against a New York defense that gave up just shy of 150 rush yards per game last season. There were signs of life in the Giants offense with rookie Daniel Jones at the helm last season. Of course, it helps that he has RB Saquon Barkley in the backfield but I question how much running room he'll find against the teeth of the Steelers defense. Meanwhile, the G-Men boast a below average group of wide receivers that won't instill much fear at all in the Steelers secondary. Take Pittsburgh (10*). | |||||||
09-13-20 | Cowboys v. Rams OVER 51 | 17-20 | Loss | -116 | 83 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Los Angeles at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. While I do lean to the Cowboys minus the points as well, I feel the 'over' is the better way to go in this Sunday night NFC showdown in Los Angeles. The Cowboys offense is well-positioned to get off to a tremendous start in this favorable matchup with the Rams. While Los Angeles has been considered an elite defensive team at times in recent years and boasts plenty of star power with Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey, it will need to replace a number of key cogs from last year's team and also has to adjust to a new system under new defensive coordinator Brandon Staley. The Cowboys offense is obviously loaded with elite talent at all the skill positions. Defensively, the Cowboys pass rush could wreak havoc against an overmatched Rams offensive line. But even if QB Jared Goff is given a little bit of time in the pocket he should have no trouble exposing what I consider to be one of the league's weaker secondaries. Even without fans, at home in a brand new stadium I don't see the Rams getting embarrassed in this one, and neither team will shy away from a shootout. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-13-20 | Cardinals v. 49ers OVER 48 | 24-20 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and San Francisco at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. This total has been on the rise since opening, and rightfully so in my opinion. Arizona's offense is poised to take off here in year two of Kyler Murray's tenure as starting QB. The Cardinals made arguably the biggest offseason splash by acquiring WR DeAndre Hopkins from the Texans and I expect him to have a positive impact right out of the gates, even after dealing with injury issues this summer. Speaking of injuries, the 49ers defense was also forced to deal with some key ones during training camp. I'm not sure we'll see San Fran's defense firing on all cylinders here in Week 1. With issues on their offensive line, don't count on the 49ers ground game to obliterate the Cardinals defensive front on Sunday. With that being said, that might just force QB Jimmy Garoppolo to take a few more shots down the field. Keep in mind, he completed better than 75% of his passes for eight touchdowns in two meetings with the Cardinals a year ago and Arizona isn't likely to take a big step forward defensively this season. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-13-20 | Chargers v. Bengals +3.5 | Top | 16-13 | Win | 100 | 79 h 49 m | Show |
AFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Cincinnati plus the points over Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I'm more than happy to grab the points with an underrated Bengals team hosting an overrated Chargers squad on Sunday afternoon. I'm not sure the Tyrod Taylor-led Chargers have any business traveling across the country and being favored in this matchup. With issues on their offensive line and an unproven ground attack (Austin Ekeler is a terrific RB but more of a pass-catcher than runner), I believe they'll have trouble chewing up clock and ultimately putting this game to bed. It remains to be seen how effective Bengals QB Joe Burrow can be in his NFL debut against a tough defense but I'm confident he can do just enough (and not make the critical game-changing mistakes) to lead the Bengals to victory. I don't believe the Chargers bring any sort of intimidation factor to the table here, especially after losing one of their best defensive players in SS Derwin James to injury. The Chargers are still absolutely loaded with talent on defense but in today's NFL, that's rarely enough. Take Cincinnati (10*). | |||||||
09-13-20 | Lightning v. Islanders UNDER 5.5 | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 18 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and New York at 3:10 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Islanders in Game 3 of this series on Friday but I'll shift my attention to the total and back the 'under' in Game 4 on Sunday. The Lightning were without Brayden Point in Game 3 and regardless whether he plays on Sunday, I'm still anticipating a tightly-contested low-scoring affair. The Lightning got away from their game on Friday but that wasn't all that unexpected given they owned a 2-0 series lead heading in. New York obviously wants to play a tighter-checking low-scoring style under Barry Trotz. While the Isles did get back in this series with a win on Friday, this is another pivotal contest. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-13-20 | Eagles v. Washington Football Team +6 | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 77 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington plus the points over Philadelphia at 1 pm et on Sunday. I think it's a pretty good bet that few recreational players will want any part of the Washington Football Team on Sunday afternoon. After all, it was a truly tumultuous offseason in the nation's capital. With that being said, I believe this game is far closer to a pk'em than the oddsmakers are suggesting. Philadelphia isn't exactly on solid ground entering the new season. QB Carson Wentz was banged up throughout training camp and has major pass protection issues with two key cogs on the offensive line (Andre Dillard and Brandon Brooks) lost to injuries. It sets up a bit of a nightmarish situation against Washington's vaunted pass rush. Meanwhile, I'm higher on Washington QB Dwayne Haskins than some. I believe he and last year's breakout star WR Terry McLaurin can do plenty of damage right out of the gate this season, particularly against the Eagles beatable secondary. Philadelphia's defense isn't nearly as fearsome with the likes of Malcolm Jenkins and Nigel Bradham out of the mix. Take Washington (10*). | |||||||
09-13-20 | Eagles v. Washington Football Team OVER 42 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 77 h 1 m | Show |
NFC East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Washington at 1 pm et on Sunday. Most are expecting this to be one of the uglier games on the Week 1 slate, but I'm not so easily convinced. I actually believe we'll see some offensive fireworks as these two familiar NFC East foes square off in Washington. Philadelphia is going to have to play fast on offense in an effort to circumvent its own offensive line issues against Washington's tremendous pass rush. The good news for the Eagles is that Washington's defensive back-end is average at best and I believe the opportunity will be there for Philadelphia's underrated pass-catching corps to come up with some big plays downfield. On the flip side, I'm higher on the Washington offense than most. QB Dwayne Haskins is poised to take a step forward after showing plenty of improvement down the stretch last year. While its WR corps isn't deep, it has a bonafide gamebreaker in Terry McLaurin. And don't sleep on RB Antonio Gibson making something out of nothing in the backfield. The Eagles may be known for their tough defense but they take a hit this year with a number of key cogs no longer in uniform, including Malcolm Jenkins and Nigel Bradham. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-13-20 | Browns v. Ravens -7.5 | 6-38 | Win | 100 | 77 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over Cleveland at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'm not sure the Ravens are getting quite enough credit for their regular season performance a year ago, or hype entering the new season (thanks in large part to the love-in for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs). Baltimore has the potential to be even better this year after shoring up its run defense and making some savvy additions on offense during the offseason. The Browns underwent a coaching overhaul following a disappointing 2019 campaign but I'm not sure it's going to result in immediate positive returns. This is quite simply an awful opening week matchup against a loaded Super Bowl contender that carries a big chip on its shoulder following last January's early playoff exit. The Browns are dealing with a number of injuries and absences on the defensive side of the football which should have QB Lamar Jackson licking his chops entering this contest. Take Baltimore (10*). | |||||||
09-13-20 | Jets v. Bills UNDER 39.5 | 17-27 | Loss | -104 | 77 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Buffalo at 1 pm et on Sunday. This has the potential to be one of the lowest-scoring games on the Week 1 board, as evidenced by the total sitting in the high-30's at the time of writing. Many have high hopes for the Bills offense with QB Josh Allen expected to take a step forward along with the addition of WR Stefon Diggs. The jury is still out on whether the Bills offense can be explosive through. I do expect them to orchestrate plenty of long drives against a relatively soft Jets defense here in Week 1. With that being said, I also believe New York can chew up some clock of its own with conservative play-calling against a Buffalo defense that can be dominant, but also yields to the short game in an effort to prevent big plays downfield. That's essentially why the Bills set up well as an 'under' team right out of the gates this season. With few gamebreakers on offense, Jets QB Sam Darnold will be forced into a game manager role on Sunday and that bodes well for the 'under'. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-13-20 | Raiders v. Panthers OVER 47.5 | 34-30 | Win | 100 | 77 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Las Vegas and Carolina at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'm expecting a high-scoring affair as the Raiders and Panthers do battle in Carolina on Sunday afternoon. Las Vegas' offense should absolutely feast on a Panthers defense that is missing a ton of talent from a year ago. Keep in mind, the Carolina defense had a tough enough time with all of that talent on hand last season. Now it has the potential to be the weakest defense in the entire league. The Raiders may not have an elite offense - the presence of QB Derek Carr virtually ensures that - but this is simply too good of a matchup not to succeed. Meanwhile, the Panthers will turn the page on the Cam Newton era with Teddy Bridgewater taking over under center. You can be sure he'll be motivated to perform now that he's finally grabbed a starting job. He has enough talent around him, including all world RB Christian McCaffrey, to get off to a strong start against a very beatable Raiders defense. Gone from Las Vegas are Prince Amukamara and Damarious Randall and while they did struggle at times, their experience will be missed in a new-look secondary. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-12-20 | Golden Knights -160 v. Stars | 1-2 | Loss | -160 | 22 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Vegas over Dallas at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. Back-and-forth they go and I look for the zig-zag pattern to continue in Game 4 on Saturday night. The Golden Knights have certainly looked like the better team through the first three games, but only have one win to show for it. It certainly seems as if whenever Vegas wants, or needs to turn it on it has that additional gear. Without question, Stars goaltender Anton Khudobin is the reason they currently hold the series lead. After facing 97 shots through three games, I'm just not sure how much he possibly has left in the tank. Take Vegas (10*). | |||||||
09-12-20 | Tulane -10 v. South Alabama | 27-24 | Loss | -107 | 32 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tulane minus the points over South Alabama at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. South Alabama pulled off a stunning upset win at Southern Miss last week (we won with the 'under') so don't expect Tulane to get caught off guard in its season debut. The Jaguars were able to orchestrate the upset thanks to a number of big plays in the passing game, taking full advantage of a very weak Southern Miss secondary. Here, the Jags won't be so fortunate. Tulane's defense let it down at times last season but should be stronger here in 2020, with its pass defense serving as a strength. There are a number of changes on offense but I do think the Green Wave can hit the ground running with a week of game film to work with when it comes to the South Alabama defense. I had the Jaguars pegged as one of the weakest teams in FBS entering this unique 2020 season and I won't stray from that thinking, even after last week's strong performance. Tulane has become a perennial Bowl team while South Alabama is still trying to find its way as an FBS program. While I'd like to be dealing with a lower number, I still see value with the Green Wave here. Take Tulane (10*). | |||||||
09-12-20 | UL-Monroe +21.5 v. Army | Top | 7-37 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 55 m | Show |
CFB Game of the Week. My selection is on Louisiana-Monroe plus the points over Army at 1:30 pm et on Saturday. I'll grab the generous helping of points with Louisiana-Monroe at it heads to West Point to take on Army on Saturday afternoon. The Black Knights have the benefit of having already worked out the early season kinks in a stunning 42-0 blowout win over Middle Tennessee last week. Keep in mind, the Black Knights were favored by just north of a field goal in that game. They overachieved in that contest as the Blue Raiders had absolutely no answer to Army's triple-option offense. Here, I look for a different story to unfold. Don't count on the Black Knights running roughshod against a Warhawks defense that has plenty of talent and experience in the second level. On the flip side, the Army defense was never really tested in last week's game as it jumped ahead early and never looked back. The Black Knights were able to force three turnovers in that victory but I look for Louisiana-Monroe to do a better job of taking care of the football here. Look for the Warhawks to play smart with an inexperienced quarterback but serviceable ground attack against an Army defense that shouldn't generate much pressure in the backfield. Army should get the win here, but I simply feel it is being asked to lay too many points. Take Louisiana-Monroe (10*). | |||||||
09-12-20 | Syracuse v. North Carolina UNDER 65.5 | Top | 6-31 | Win | 100 | 27 h 48 m | Show |
CFB ACC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Syracuse and North Carolina at 12 noon et on Saturday. Most have this ACC opener pegged as a wild shootout between two offensive-minded teams in Syracuse and North Carolina. I feel the total has simply been set too high. The Orange certainly have a lot of work to do if they want to improve on last year's 5-7 squad that won just two games in ACC play. Their offensive line wasn't good and doesn't figure to be a whole lot better this year. The jury is still out on QB Tommy DeVito, who has shown flashes of brilliance but a real lack of consistency, albeit under duress most of the time. I do expect Syracuse to do a better job of keeping DeVito upright by leaning a little more on the ground game and the quick, short passing attack. The Tar Heels have a better defense than advertised as far as I'm concerned but they do have pass-funnel tendencies, particularly underneath, which could help keep the clock moving in this one. With that being said, I'm not convinced we'll see the Orange offense end many drives with 7's on the board as the Heels have an opportunistic defense that has the ability to tighten up in their own end of the field. The North Carolina offense is loaded. The strength of the offense is obviously their passing game with future NFL prospect QB Sam Howell and a talented group of wide receivers. The good news for Syracuse is that the strength of its defense is in the secondary where it boasts an experienced, underrated group. Like the Heels defense, the Orange secondary has also shown a knack for forcing turnovers. I believe we'll see the Orange do just enough to keep the Heels big play ability at bay for stretches. With a sky-high total, I'll call for enough stalled drives to keep this one 'under' the number. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-11-20 | Celtics -128 v. Raptors | Top | 92-87 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
NBA Game of the Year. My selection is on Boston (moneyline) over Toronto at 9 pm et on Friday. I picked the Celtics to win this series at the onset and I won't waver from that position here in Game 7. Give the defending champion Raptors credit, they've battled all the way back in this series but what else would you expect? There was no way a team as talented, experienced and well-coached as the Raptors were going to roll over. With that being said, the Raps are fortunate to have forced a Game 7 with a miracle buzzer beater leading to one win and another coming by way of double overtime. This is a huge game for Celtics head coach Brad Stevens as he needs to respond to Nick Nurse's adjustments and get his team over the hump. Desperation has shifted to the Celtics now and I look for their stars to respond accordingly. Take Boston moneyline (10*). | |||||||
09-11-20 | Angels v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Friday. I'm expecting plenty of offensive fireworks on Friday night at Coors Field. Griffin Canning takes the ball for the Angels. His strikeouts per nine innings are down considerably while his walks are up compared to last season and that's saying something as he isn't coming off a banner campaign. He's also allowing more hits and home runs per nine innings compared to a year ago. Meanwhile, Rockies starter German Marquez has also struggled. Like Canning, his strikeouts are down and his walks are up. While he has been able to tame Coors Field in the past, that simply hasn't been the case this year. With these two teams ranking top 12 in the majors in runs per game, look for a high-scoring affair on Friday. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-11-20 | Lightning v. Islanders +139 | 3-5 | Win | 139 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Tampa Bay at 8:10 pm et on Friday. While most see their heartbreaking Game 2 loss as an absolute back-breaker for the Islanders, I don't expect this resilient bunch to quit just yet. New York certainly turned in a much stronger performance than we saw in the series-opener when they were blitzed 8-2. The Lightning's depth could be tested in this game with Alex Killorn suspended and Brayden Point questionable to play. I actually expect Point to be in the lineup for this game, but how effective he can be remains to be seen. Look for the Isles to throw everything they have at the Bolts in this one as they at least make the series interesting heading into Game 4. Take New York (10*). | |||||||
09-10-20 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | 2-5 | Loss | -106 | 24 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Thursday. Everything lines up for a high-scoring affair between the Dodgers and D'Backs on Thursday night. Dustin May takes the ball for Los Angeles. While he has posted a sub-3.00 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, his peripheral numbers aren't nearly as sharp. May's strikeouts per nine innings have dropped by over two since last season while his walks are up by nearly one. He's also giving up more than twice as many home runs per nine innings. Meanwhile, Madison Bumgarner has endured a nightmarish season so far. His strikeouts per nine innings are way down while his walks are way up. He's allowing a whopping 3.8 home runs per nine innings. Now he faces a Dodgers club that entered last night's play ranked second in the majors in runs per game. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-10-20 | Texans v. Chiefs OVER 54.5 | 20-34 | Loss | -104 | 56 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Kansas City at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. This will be the third meeting between these two sudden AFC rivals in the last year, with the previous two resulting in wild, high-scoring affairs with the Texans winning the regular season matchup 31-24 and the Chiefs prevailing when it really mattered in the AFC Divisional Round, 51-31. There's little reason to expect anything other than another shootout as this unique 2020 NFL season kicks off on Thursday night. Yes, the Texans lost all-world WR DeAndre Hopkins, but the cupboard is by no means bare as they brought in the likes of Brandin Cooks and Randall Cobb to solidify the receiving corps. We can certainly expect Will Fuller to take a big step forward in Hopkins' absence, and this is a matchup he can feast on a Chiefs secondary that will be missing CB Bashaud Breeland - keeping in mind, this unit struggled at the best of times last season. Kansas City will also be without NT Mike Pennel, which should help open things up for the Texans ground attack which has been re-tooled with the addition of RB David Johnson. We know what we're going to get with the Chiefs electric offense. All of the key pieces are back and the addition of rookie RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire could potentially make this unit even stronger. The Texans weren't able to get to opposing quarterbacks with any consistency last season and did little to help their own cause in the offseason. Look for QB Pat Mahomes to come out all guns blazing here as he feasts on a Texans secondary that is missing a key cog in CB Gareon Conley. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-10-20 | Golden Knights v. Stars +1.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 22 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas +1.5 goals over Vegas at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'under' in Game 2 of this series on Tuesday night and while I'm expecting another relatively low-scoring affair on Thursday, I'm not ready to pay the tariff with the 'under' again. Instead I'll grab the insurance goal with what is sure to be an extremely hungry Stars squad coming off Tuesday night's egg. Dallas has been answering its doubters all playoffs long and I expect it to do so again in this spot. We did see some push back from the Stars in the third period of Game 2 and I'm expecting some carry-over from that here. While Vegas ultimately dominated two nights ago, I still believe we're in for a long series. Take Dallas +1.5 goals (10*). | |||||||
09-10-20 | UAB v. Miami-FL OVER 54 | Top | 14-31 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 16 m | Show |
CFB Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between UAB and Miami at 8 pm et on Thursday. The Miami offense was absolutely dreadful a year ago, but perhaps that should have been expected (we noted the Canes offense would likely struggle right out of the gates in a season-opening play on the 'under' against Florida). We should see a different story unfold in 2020, however. QB D'Eriq King gives the Canes a bonafide veteran leader and star on offense. While the cupboard has been cleaned out in terms of the wide receiving corps, it's by no means bare. The Canes are loaded with speed all over the field on offense and King should have no trouble building a solid rapport with terrific TE Brevin Jordan. UAB's defense was terrific stat-wise last season, but that's playing most of its games against C-USA opponents. On the flip side, the Miami defense loses a number of key cogs after a strong 2019 campaign. I'm higher on the UAB offense than most. While the Blazers 45-point outburst last week came against an FCS squad in Central Arkansas, I saw plenty of positives, namely the performance of RB Spencer Brown, who ran for 127 yards and a score on 24 carries. He's in line for a big bounce-back season after playing hurt much of last year. In WR Austin Watkins Jr., the Blazers have a home run threat veteran QB Tyler Johnston can bank on as well. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-09-20 | Rockies v. Padres UNDER 9 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 23 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and San Diego at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' at Petco Park on Wednesday night. The Rockies will hand the ball to Antonio Senzatela who is enjoying a career year, albeit in a Covid-shortened season. In his three previous big league campaigns he has always issued at least three walks per nine innings but he has cut that number all the way to 1.3 this season. His strikeouts per nine innings are up slightly compared to a year ago while his hits and home runs allowed are down. Zach Davies will counter for San Diego. Like Senzatela, he has also improved on his numbers from a year ago. Most notably, Davies' strikeouts per nine innings have climbed from 5.7 last season to 7.8 here in 2020. While the Padres are more known for their offense this season, it's worth noting that they also rank T9 in team ERA. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-09-20 | Islanders v. Lightning UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 23 h 40 m | Show |
NHL Conference Final Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Tampa Bay at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. Game 1 of this series was a complete landslide as the Lightning's top line absolutely went off and helped them roll to an 8-2 victory. Here, I expect a much different type of game to play out. It's important to realize that it was just one game. The Islanders are a well-coached team that has really come together during this playoff run and are certainly capable of bouncing back. With that being said, it's tough to stand in the way of the Lightning right now, given they're in top form having won five games in a row. I also have a lot of respect for Tampa Bay goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy who is quite simply one of the best goalies in the world right now. With all of that being said, I look for the Isles to make the necessary adjustments and do a much better job of containing Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point in particular on Wednesday night. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay knows this isn't going to be a cakewalk and won't let down its guard defensively after the Game 1 blowout win. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-09-20 | Raptors v. Celtics OVER 210 | Top | 125-122 | Win | 100 | 22 h 51 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Toronto and Boston at 6:30 pm et on Wednesday. The Raptors haven't had much of a prayer of slowing down the Celtics multi-dimensional offensive attack during this series and as a result they're facing the prospect of elimination on Wednesday night. I don't expect the Raps to suddenly come up with an answer for the four-headed monster of Brown, Tatum, Walker and Smart on Wednesday. With that being said, I also don't expect to see Siakam and Lowry combine to make a paltry eight shots again either. The Raptors are the defending champions and as such, I don't think we'll see them go away quietly. This is the lowest posted total we've seen in this series so far, and I believe it will prove far too low on Wednesday night. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-08-20 | Stars v. Golden Knights -160 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 23 h 54 m | Show |
NHL Conference Final Game of the Year. My selection is on Vegas over Dallas at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. Vegas simply didn't show up ready to play in the opener of this series on Sunday night. Maybe it was due to the Knights breathing a sigh of relief after a hard-fought series against an upstart Canucks squad. Maybe Vegas was caught reading a bit of its own press as it prepared to face the Stars, who few expected to reach this stage of the playoffs. Either way, the Knights did wake up in the third period of Game 1, outshooting Dallas by a 15-2 margin. Despite the 1-0 loss, I do think Vegas carries some confidence into Game 2 and expect to see one of its best performances in the playoffs to date. While I do have a lot of respect for Rick Bowness and the Stars (having picked them to beat the Avalanche in Game 7 last round), I look for them to fall short here. Take Vegas (10*). | |||||||
09-08-20 | Brewers v. Tigers OVER 8.5 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 22 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'over' in this same pitching matchup last week - a game that totaled 13 runs. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Adrian Houser once again takes the ball for the Brewers. While he didn't give up a home run for the first time in five starts, he still allowed nine hits and five earned runs over five innings. His strikeouts per nine innings are way down compared to last season while his walks are basically on par, which isn't saying much. He's also giving up more hits and home runs per nine innings. Spencer Turnbull counters for Detroit. I noted in my analysis last week that he was due for some regression to the mean in terms of home runs allowed as he had yet to give one up this season. Well he finally allowed a long ball in that most recent start and continues to struggle with his command, issuing a ridiculous six walks per nine innings. While the Brewers have struggled offensively this season look for them to once again take advantage of a Tigers pitching staff that has posted an ERA north of five this season, ranking 28th in the majors. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-07-20 | Islanders v. Lightning -147 | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over New York at 8:10 pm et on Monday. While this does have the makings of a long, hard-fought series, I'll side with the favored Lightning in Game 1 on Monday night. Tampa Bay offers a much different challenge to New York than Philadelphia did last round. The Flyers had to lean heavily on goaltender Carter Hart to stick around in the latter part of that series. Unfortunately they weren't able to generate enough of an offensive attack to ultimately get over the hump. Here, the Lightning have an elite goaltender in Andrei Vasilevskiy but also have the offense to break down what has been a rock solid Islanders defense (head coach Barry Trotz has made a big difference in that regard). In what should be a fairly low-scoring series-opener, look for the Bolts to prevail. Take Tampa Bay (10*). | |||||||
09-07-20 | BYU v. Navy UNDER 49.5 | 55-3 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between BYU and Navy at 8 pm et on Monday. This total has obviously dropped considerably since opening but I still see some value playing the 'under' at the current number. BYU will be missing TE Matt Bushman - who was expected to be one of the best tight ends in FBS this season. The Cougars are also replacing most of their receiving corps from a year ago. While QB Zach Wilson has plenty of upside, I'm not convinced we'll see him come out bombing away here on Monday night. Navy is also turning to a number of new faces on offense, which is pretty much par for the course for the Midshipmen every year. QB Dalen Morris takes over the reins under center and we can expect a fairly conservative version of the option attack against a solid BYU defense. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-05-20 | Arkansas State v. Memphis UNDER 74 | 24-37 | Win | 100 | 94 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arkansas State and Memphis at 8 pm et on Saturday. Let's face it, we're dealing with a diminished opening week slate of games due to Covid-19 but this primetime matchup between Arkansas State and Memphis does have the potential to be one of the week's most entertaining affairs. We're looking at a massive posted total for this one and while both offenses have proven explosive in recent years while the defenses have left a lot to be desired, I'm not convinced we're going to see the type of shootout the oddsmakers are projecting. Arkansas State knows it will be hard-pressed to win a shootout with Memphis - it simply doesn't have enough big-time playmakers to come away victorious in that sort of back-and-forth battle. Instead, I look for the Red Wolves to focus on trying to sustain long drives with an experienced offensive line capable of helping them move the chains with some consistency. The issue is that the Memphis defense has plenty of talent and experience, and lots of room for improvement, not to mention motivation get off to a strong start here in the season-opener at home. Memphis is loaded once again on offense but will have to replace star RB Kenneth Gainwell, who has opted out this season. The Tigers will generate plenty of offense but I don't believe it will be enough to get this one north of the sky-high total. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-05-20 | Islanders v. Flyers UNDER 5 | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Philadelphia at 7:25 pm et on Saturday. This series has very much become a toss-up thanks in large part to the stellar goaltending of Carter Hart for the Flyers. While I do still give the Islanders the slight edge entering Game 7, I'll instead focus on the total and call for a tightly-contested, low-scoring affair on Saturday night. While the Flyers did manage to score five goals in Game 6, they actually didn't look all that dangerous offensively for much of the game. We know Isles head coach Barry Trotz will have his players ready to defend and frustrate Philadelphia here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-05-20 | Middle Tennessee State v. Army OVER 55 | 0-42 | Loss | -108 | 88 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Middle Tennessee State and Army at 1:30 pm et on Saturday. While I'll admit this total has settled out a little higher than I would like, I still see value playing the 'over' at the current number. Neither squad was an offensive juggernaut a year ago but I'm confident we'll see both teams get off to a positive start thanks to this favorable matchup on Saturday. The real key here is that neither defense showed the ability to get into the backfield with any consistency a year ago, and both units lose a number of key pieces entering the new season. Both teams have plenty of dynamic playmakers at the skill positions on offense and given enough time - as should be the case here - I look for the two offenses to feast. Expect to see enough 'home run plays' to help send this one 'over' the total. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-04-20 | Rockies +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 6-10 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 14 m | Show |
MLB Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on Colorado +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 9:40 pm et on Friday. I'll take a shot with the Rockies plus the insurance run on Friday night in Los Angeles. Antonio Senzatela will take the ball for Colorado. He has quietly gotten off to a fine start this season. His strikeouts per nine innings are up slightly while his walks are way down, all the way to 1.5 per nine innings compared to 4.1 a year ago. His home runs and hits allowed have also dropped. Dodgers starter Dustin May has posted a solid ERA and WHIP but a deeper look shows that he has regressed slightly. His strikeouts per nine innings are down from 8.3 a year ago to 5.9 this season. His walks have jumped from 1.3 to 2.3. He's also allowing 1.0 home runs per nine innings compared to 0.5 last season. Entering last night's action the Rockies had crept into T10th in runs per game and T7th in team batting average. I look for them to hang around in this one. Take Colorado +1.5 runs (10*). | |||||||
09-04-20 | Brewers v. Indians -146 | 7-1 | Loss | -146 | 21 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland over Milwaukee at 7:10 pm et on Friday. I'll back the Indians on Friday night as they host an Interleague matchup with the Brewers. Corbin Burnes will take the ball for Milwaukee. He was one of the most hittable pitchers in all of baseball last season but has settled down considerably this season, posting quite solid numbers. With that being said, his command hasn't been great as he has issued just shy of five walks per nine innings. He's giving up just 0.3 home runs per nine innings, way down from last year's 3.1. That's the type of stat that tends to regress to the mean a little bit as the season goes on. Cookie Carrasco will counter for Cleveland. His strikeouts per nine innings are up but so are his walks. Keep in mind, he battled command issues over a three-start stretch earlier but has settled down over his last couple of outings. He'll benefit from facing a Brewers club that ranks T26th in runs per game and 29th in team batting average. Take Cleveland (10*). | |||||||
09-04-20 | Stars +117 v. Avalanche | 5-4 | Win | 117 | 18 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas over Colorado at 8 pm et on Friday. The Avs have climbed all the way back in this series with back-to-back dominating victories but I don't expect them to complete the comeback on Friday night. Dallas has actually outshot Colorado by a 46-27 margin over the last four periods of hockey. The Avs have gotten a boost from goaltender Michael Hutchinson but let's not lose sight of the fact that he's still a very average NHL netminder (you may remember he was run out of town as the backup in Toronto). The Stars don't strike me as the type of team that will fold under the pressure here in Game 7. Take Dallas (10*). | |||||||
09-03-20 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -1.5 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 23 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Thursday. This is an awfully tough matchup for the D'Backs as they run into a red hot Clayton Kershaw while sending a struggling Luke Weaver to the mound. Weaver made his big league debut in 2016 but has pitched just one full season since, that coming in 2018 when he went 7-11 with a 4.95 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. His strikeouts per nine innings are up this season but so are his walks, hits and home runs allowed. The fact is, Weaver has struggled here in 2020 and there's little reason to expect him to turn things around against the Dodgers. Clayton Kershaw is quietly off to a terrific start this season with a 1.80 ERA and 0.77 WHIP. His strikeouts per nine innings are up compared to last season while his walks are down. Keep in mind he was an All-Star once again last year and finished eighth in N.L. Cy Young voting so the fact that he has improved on his numbers says something. I'll lay the extra run to get a more reasonably price with the Dodgers here. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (10*). | |||||||
09-03-20 | Nuggets v. Clippers -8.5 | Top | 97-120 | Win | 100 | 23 h 28 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Denver at 9 pm et on Thursday. I really think this is a blowout in the making as the weary Nuggets take on the Clippers just one day removed from outlasting the Jazz in what was an opening round war of attrition. Los Angeles is well-rested, and likely to keep rolling after rounding into form in the latter stages of the first round. The Clips didn't exactly come roaring out of the gates here in the "bubble" but they didn't have to. Here, I look for them to get off to a blazing start to the second round as they do a far better job of containing Jokic and Murray than the Jazz did in the Nuggets last series. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
09-03-20 | South Alabama v. Southern Miss UNDER 53.5 | 32-21 | Win | 100 | 54 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between South Alabama and Southern Miss at 9 pm et on Thursday. I'm not expecting a great deal of offensive fireworks as South Alabama and Southern Miss open what promises to be a unique college football season on Thursday night. Southern Miss should be able to name its score against a Jaguars squad that might be one of the weakest teams in the nation (of those playing that is). With that being said, the Golden Eagles are dealing with a number of key departures on offense and might just focus on pounding away on the ground and controlling the clock in this very winnable contest. QB Jack Abraham has shown plenty of promise but he likely won't be asked to do too much in the season-opener. South Alabama's spread offense is going to continue to go through some growing pains. While the Jaguars do boast considerable talent at the wide receiver position, I'm not sure they have the quarterback to make it happen on the scoreboard. Most will be looking for an entertaining, high-scoring affair to open the campaign with this total set in the 50's. I'm find with going the other way and grabbing some perceived value with the 'under'. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-03-20 | Flyers v. Islanders -115 | 5-4 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. Entering these unique NHL Playoffs my first thought was that we could see a sleeper team end up going on a deep run and maybe even hoisting the Stanley Cup and the Islanders certainly seem to fit that bill. New York not surprisingly turned in a bit of a flat effort with a chance to eliminate the Flyers two nights ago but did rally late to tie the game before falling in overtime. Here, I look for a more focused and complete effort from the Isles as they certainly don't want to get involved in a seventh and deciding game, where anything can happen, and knowing the Flyers have a goalie capable of stealing such a game in Carter Hart. While I did like the Flyers entering this series, Hart as admittedly not been at the top of his game and their overall play has been uneven. Take New York (10*). | |||||||
09-02-20 | Avalanche v. Stars UNDER 6 | 4-1 | Win | 109 | 13 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Dallas at 8 pm et on Wednesday. The last two games in this series have featured big early leads, first with Dallas jumping ahead 3-0 in Game 4 and then with Colorado roaring out to a shocking 5-0 first period lead in Game 5. Here, I look for both teams to tighten things up defensively. The Avs will still be in desperation mode facing elimination but they can ill afford to get involved in another wild, high-scoring affair. Even when spotted a 5-0 lead, the Stars were still able to make the Avs feel uncomfortable, ultimately scoring three goals in the contest. It's not easy to play an 'under' the way this series has played out, but here I simply feel it's the right call. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-02-20 | Tigers v. Brewers OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. I'm expecting another high-scoring affair between these two clubs on Wednesday night. The Tigers are hot right now. They rank ninth in the majors in runs per game and 11th in team batting average. The Brewers find themselves at the back-end of most offensive rankings but I do think they can have some success at the dish here tonight. Spencer Turnbull has posted a solid ERA this season for the Tigers but a deeper look indicates he could be in for some rough waters moving forward. Turnbull is striking out fewer batters per nine innings than a year ago while issuing north of five walks - way up from his walk rate a year ago. Brewers starter Adrian Houser is nothing special having recorded a 4.36 ERA and 1.39 WHIP this season. The Tigers can get to him, and the Brewers bullpen here tonight. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-02-20 | Heat v. Bucks UNDER 221 | Top | 116-114 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Milwaukee at 6:30 pm et on Wednesday. We've seen a considerable adjustment to the total in this matchup since Game 1, despite the fact that the series-opener did manage to reach 219 total points (not much lower than the closing total of 224). I believe we'll consider to see the totals drop as this series progresses as we should be in for another relatively low-scoring affair (by today's NBA standards) on Wednesday. Keep in mind, both teams shot the ball pretty well, particularly from three-point range, two nights ago. As expected, Miami was able to slow down the Bucks pace, something I think we'll continue to see as the series goes on. The Bucks got punched in the mouth in Game 1 but I'm confident we'll see them punch back on Wednesday. But am I confident enough that I'm willing to lay a handful of points with them against a gritty Heat squad? Not a chance. Instead we'll focus on the total and call for a tightly-contested affair in Game 2. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-02-20 | Giants v. Rockies -127 | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado over San Francisco at 3:10 pm et on Wednesday. Bettors seem to be a little hesitant to back the Rockies in a favored role following last night's 23-5 beatdown at the hands of the Giants. I do look for Colorado to respond here with Kyle Freeland on the mound. Freeland continues his comeback tour following a disastrous 2019 campaign. His strikeouts per nine innings are down slightly but more importantly, his walks per nine innings have dropped considerably and he's giving up far fewer home runs. Logan Webb will counter for the Giants. He's made just 15 big league starts, eight last year and seven this year so we don't have a lot to go on. While his strikeouts per nine innings are up slightly this season, his walks have ballooned from 3.2 to 3.8 and he's been somewhat lucky, giving up just 0.3 home runs per nine innings. That could change here at hitter-friendly Coors Field on Wednesday. Take Colorado (10*). | |||||||
09-01-20 | Canucks v. Golden Knights UNDER 6 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 24 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Vancouver and Vegas at 9:45 pm et on Tuesday. The Golden Knights have certainly proven capable of shutting down the Canucks offense for stretches in this series, having posted two shutout victories and also not allowing a single goal in a pivotal third period on Game 4. With an opportunity to close out the series on Tuesday night, I look for the Knights to tighten up defensively once again. Meanwhile, the Canucks know that they're up against it now, needing three consecutive wins to rally to win this series. They'll obviously need to be stronger defensively after allowing three unanswered goals in the third period of Game 4. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-01-20 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers OVER 9 | Top | 3-6 | Push | 0 | 23 h 24 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Los Angeles at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Dodgers entered last night's action tied for first in the majors in runs per game but rather than back them at a steep price on Tuesday night, we'll instead play the 'over' as I'm confident the D'Backs will be able to pitch in with some offense as well. Alex Young will take the ball for the D'Backs. We've actually been fairly high on Young this season but he's shown signs of regression in recent starts. He has failed to work beyond the fifth inning in any of his last three starts, allowing four home runs in just 13 1/3 innings over that stretch. His strikeouts per nine innings are up compared to last season but so are his hits allowed and his walks have started to creep up as well. Julio Urias will counter for Los Angeles. His strikeouts per nine innings are down while his walks, hits and home runs allowed are all up compared to last year. He has worked beyond the fourth inning just once in his last four starts. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-01-20 | Jazz v. Nuggets OVER 217.5 | 78-80 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Utah and Denver at 8:30 pm et on Tuesday. This series has been an 'over' bettors' dream and while I understand the logic behind posting a lower total with this being Game 7 and all, I'm not about to jump off the 'over' train. Generally, we see the defensive intensity ramp up in Game 7 but these aren't typical circumstances. Without the raucous atmosphere these players are accustomed to, not to mention home court advantage, we just haven't seen that same level of defensively intensity, regardless what point of a series we're talking about. Here, I look for both teams to continue to get the looks they want on offense, and continue to execute at a very high level at the offensive end of the floor. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-01-20 | Cardinals v. Reds -147 | 16-2 | Loss | -147 | 21 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cincinnati over St. Louis at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the Reds as they aim to bounce-back from last night's 7-5 loss at the hands of the Cardinals. Cincinnati will turn to its ace, Sonny Gray. He's been outstanding so far this season, improving on what was an All-Star campaign a year ago. Gray's strikeouts per nine innings are up while his walks, hits and home runs allowed are all down. St. Louis' seven-run outburst last night was not a common occurrence as they entered action ranked T26 in runs per game. Look for Gray to keep their bats at bay on Tuesday. Kwang Hyun Kim starts for St. Louis. He has been very effective in his last two starts but still isn't missing many bats, recording just 3.8 strikeouts per nine innings compared to 2.2 walks. We're talking about a very small sample size at the big league level with Kim. Take Cincinnati (10*). | |||||||
08-31-20 | Stars v. Avalanche -133 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
NHL Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Colorado over Dallas at 9:45 pm et on Monday. The Avalanche simply haven't been able to keep up with the Stars red-hot scoring in this series but they continue to generate a ton of scoring opportunities and I look for them to capitalize and get themselves back in the series with a victory on Monday night. Colorado had a number of bad bounces go against them in last night's 5-4 loss, which really wasn't as close as the final score indicated. It was generally a flat performance from the Avs and I think the quick turnaround will help their cause on Monday as they look to answer back. While Colorado is a young team, it has gained a great deal of playoff experience in recent years and I don't expect to see it simply fold the tent facing elimination on Monday night. If we know one thing, it's that the Stars can suffer defensive lapses and I look for Colorado to take advantage here. Take Colorado (10*). | |||||||
08-31-20 | Bruins +104 v. Lightning | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston over Tampa Bay at 7 pm et on Monday. I don't expect the Bruins to simply roll over on Monday night, even as they face elimination and perhaps the enticing prospect of leaving the "bubble". Yes, Tampa Bay has dominated this series since dropping the opener but the Bruins are still a veteran-laden, talented squad that knows they're capable of getting back in the series. 3-1 series deficits aren't insurmountable and I expect the Bruins to finally get back at the Bolts here on Monday. Take Boston (10*). | |||||||
08-31-20 | Cardinals +106 v. Reds | Top | 7-5 | Win | 106 | 21 h 8 m | Show |
N.L. Central Game of the Month. My selection is on St. Louis over Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Monday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Cardinals as they head to Cincinnati to face the Reds on Monday. Dakota Hudson will take the ball for St. Louis. He quietly won 16 games for the Cardinals last season and finished fifth in N.L. Rookie of the Year voting. So far this season his strikeouts per nine innings are up while his walks are down. He's also allowing two fewer hits per nine innings. Meanwhile, Reds starter Anthony DeSclafani has struggled. His strikeouts per nine innings are way down from 9.0 a year ago to 5.7 this season. His walks per nine innings have crept up from 2.6 last season to 3.6 this year. Neither of these offenses have excelled so far this season but I believe we'll see the Cards enjoy a solid night at the dish on Monday. Take St. Louis (10*). | |||||||
08-30-20 | Avalanche -130 v. Stars | 4-5 | Loss | -130 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado over Dallas at 6 pm et on Saturday. We won with the Avalanche in the last game in this series and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play in Game 4 on Sunday. Colorado has generally controlled the game flow in this series so far, but some lapses have cost it a 2-1 series deficit. We saw the Avs get refocused and rally from a couple of deficits in Game 3, and now I look for a more complete 60-minute effort on Sunday evening. This has all the makings of a long series. Look for the Avs to even things up here. Take Colorado (10*). | |||||||
08-30-20 | Celtics v. Raptors -2.5 | 112-94 | Loss | -101 | 5 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto minus the points over Boston at 1 pm et on Sunday. I look for the Raptors to get an early jump on the Celtics in this series as they return from an extended layoff on Sunday afternoon. Boston looked a little disjointed at times early in its series against the 76ers but got stronger as it went on, ultimately prevailing against an undermanned Philadelphia squad. This should be a different story as it faces the challenge of a full-strength Raptors squad that is playing some of its best basketball here in the "bubble". All indications are that Kyle Lowry's ankle should be good to go for Game 1, with a few extra days off helping him get ready for the opener. Take Toronto (10*). | |||||||
08-29-20 | Golden Knights v. Canucks UNDER 6 | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 25 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Vegas and Vancouver at 9:45 pm et on Saturday. The Knights simply didn't come to play in Game 2 of this series, dropping a 5-2 decision to even the series at a game apiece. I look for Vegas to tighten things up considerably on Saturday night, resulting in a relatively low-scoring affair. After the winner in each of the first two games of this series scored exactly five goals, it's obviously paramount for both squads to perform better defensively in Game 3 and I believe we'll see exactly that. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
08-29-20 | Blazers v. Lakers UNDER 223 | 122-131 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Portland and Los Angeles at 9 pm et on Saturday. The Blazers will try to avoid elimination at the hands of Lebron and co. on Saturday night but they'll be hard-pressed to do so without the services of Damian Lillard. We've seen a considerable adjustment to the total here, but I still believe it will prove too high as Portland makes a desperate attempt to stay in the series, ultimately missing plenty of shots against what will be a motivated Lakers squad. Los Angeles has gotten better as this series has progressed and while it has given up its share of points, I expect it to tighten things up and completely shut down the Blazers on Saturday night, helping this one stay 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
08-28-20 | Pirates +1.5 v. Brewers | 1-9 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh +1.5 runs over Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Friday. I'll take a shot with the Pirates with an insurance run on Friday night in Milwaukee. Pirates starter Derek Holland is obviously on the down side of his career but it is worth noting that his strikeouts per nine innings are up while his walks are down compared to last year. He is giving up a considerably higher home run rate but that should diminish with a larger sample size. Brewers starter Corbin Burnes is averaging over 12 strikeouts per nine innings but his walks have crept up to 5.5 per nine innings compared to 3.7 a year ago. Note that the Brewers rank a miserable 29th in the majors in runs per game and an identical 29th in team batting average. Take Pittsburgh +1.5 runs (10*). | |||||||
08-26-20 | Avalanche -137 v. Stars | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 25 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado over Dallas at 10:30 pm et on Wednesday. The Stars pummeled the Avalanche on their way to a 5-2 victory in Game 2 of this series on Monday night. Expect the Avs to answer the bell on Wednesday as they look to get back in this series. Colorado has yet to turn in a complete 60-minute effort in this series. It will need to produce that if it's going to contend with the red hot Stars. It is worth noting that the Avs have fired 71 shots on goal through two games so it's not as if they're not generating any pressure. Their issue has been a lack of defensive structure, due to injuries and otherwise, but I'm confident we'll finally see them pull together on the back-end on Wednesday night. If not they might as well pack up their bags and prepare to leave the "bubble". As we're being asked to lay the shortest price of the series to date, I'll back the Avs again here. Take Colorado (10*). | |||||||
08-26-20 | Royals v. Cardinals -168 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis over Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Wednesday. We're being asked to lay a pretty steep price with the Cardinals on Wednesday night, but the price could be even higher in my opinion. Jakob Junis will make his return to the Royals rotation after dealing with a back injury. He wasn't good last season and he's been even worse here in 2020. While we are dealing with a small sample size (he's pitched just nine innings), Junis has seen his strikeouts per nine innings drop considerably while his walks, hits and home runs allowed have all gone up compared to a year ago. Meanwhile, Cards starter Dakota Hudson has posted an ERA north of six, but that doesn't tell the whole story as he's been burned by the long ball, allowing 2.7 home runs per nine innings. Note that he's never allowed more than 1.8 home runs per nine innings in a season previously, and that number was posted way back in 2012. Hudson's strikeouts per nine innings are way up over a year ago while he's also allowing few hits per nine innings. Take St. Louis (10*). | |||||||
08-26-20 | A's v. Rangers OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -107 | 22 h 12 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Oakland and Texas at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'm expecting a high-scoring affair on Wednesday night as the A's and Rangers continue their series in Texas. Mike Fiers will take the ball for the A's. It's easy to forget that he was a 15-game winner a year ago. With that being said, W-L records rarely tell the whole story when it comes to MLB starting pitchers. There's a reason he wasn't in the running for the A.L. Cy Young. So far this season his strikeouts per nine innings are down to a career-low 4.1. His walks are on par with a year ago (2.6 per nine innings - not a favorable number). He's also giving up more hits and home runs per nine innings compared to a year ago. The Rangers may soon have to face the fact that Kolby Allard isn't cut out to be a big league starter. He owns a career 6.41 ERA and 1.77 WHIP. While his strikeouts per nine innings are up so far this season, so are his walks, home runs and hits allowed. The A's are capable of teeing off on Allard on Wednesday. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
08-26-20 | Islanders v. Flyers -108 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 17 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over New York at 3 pm et on Wednesday. I always like to back good goaltenders in bounce-back situations and we have just that with Carter Hart and the Flyers looking to rebound from a poor showing in Game 1 of this series. Of course, Hart wasn't really to blame in that series-opening loss as he kept his team in the game for two periods before the Islanders broke it open in the third. It is worth noting that off a loss in these playoffs, Hart has allowed just two goals on 56 shots, going a perfect 2-0 in the process. The Islanders might just be the hottest team in the Toronto "bubble" but the Flyers are no pushovers and unlike the Capitals last round, I expect them to make a series of this. For that to happen they need to respond with a big effort on Wednesday, and I'll call for them to do just that. Take Philadelphia (10*). | |||||||
08-25-20 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks +109 | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona over Colorado at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. Rockies starter German Marquez is pitching as poorly as he has at any point over the course of his big league career right now. His strikeouts per nine innings are down while his walks are up considerably compared to last season. With that being said he has allowed a career-low 0.7 home runs per nine innings thus far. I do expect some regression in that department moving forward. Alex Young quietly put together a terrific rookie campaign for the D'Backs last season. Through nine appearances and two starts this season his strikeouts per nine innings are up and his walks are down. He allowed 1.5 home runs per nine innings a year ago but that number has doubled here in 2020. I do look for Young to do a better job of keeping the ball in the park, noting that while the Rockies are an excellent hitting team, they entered last night ranking T15th in the majors in home runs. Take Arizona (10*). | |||||||
08-25-20 | Mavs v. Clippers -6.5 | 111-154 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Dallas at 9 pm et on Tuesday. I'll lay the points with the Clippers on Tuesday night as they bounce-back from a very disappointing overtime loss on Sunday afternoon. Luka Doncic simply took over that game on Sunday, turning in a performance for the ages with his running mate Kristaps Porzingis sidelined. Now I look for a big response from Kawhi Leonard and the Clippers as they look to take back control of the series and silence some of their doubters in the process. A big early lead may have been the worst thing that could have happened to the Clippers on Sunday as they let down their guard against the undermanned Mavs and ultimately paid the price with an 'L'. Look for a sharper, more focused effort from the Clips on Tuesday. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
08-25-20 | A's -156 v. Rangers | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 22 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oakland over Texas at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. After a rough start to the season, A's starter Sean Manaea has turned things around in his last two outings, allowing just three earned runs while posting a 9:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 10 1/3 innings of work. His strikeouts per nine innings are down compared to last year but so are his walks. He's allowing north of 11 hits per nine innings but I expect him to improve on that average as the season goes on, noting he has never given up more than 9.5 runs per nine innings in a season over the course of his career. Kyle Gibson will counter for Texas on Tuesday. His strikeouts are down considerably compared to the last two seasons while his walks are up slightly. All in all, what you see is what you get when it comes to Gibson. He's virtually a career .500 starter with an ERA well north of four and a 1.41 WHIP. Take Oakland (10*). | |||||||
08-25-20 | Bruins v. Lightning -106 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 22 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Boston at 7 pm et on Tuesday. We're able to back the Lightning at what I would consider a discount price on Tuesday night, perhaps due to the nature of their loss in the opener of this series. Tampa Bay appeared to be outclassed for much of that game, ultimately falling by a 3-2 score. I like the veteran leadership on this well-coached Tampa Bay squad and certainly expect to see its best effort in Game 2 on Tuesday night. As I noted in my analysis prior to Game 1, I like the Lightning's edge between the pipes in this series with Andrei Vasilevskiy over Jaro Halak. We saw Halak turn in a terrific performance in the series-opener but I also don't feel the Lightning were hard enough on him. Look for a different story to play out in Game 2. Take Tampa Bay (10*). | |||||||
08-25-20 | Jazz v. Nuggets OVER 221 | 107-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Utah and Denver at 6:30 pm et on Tuesday. We've been playing the 'over' every game in this series and it has paid off nicely. There's no reason to jump ship on Tuesday as we should once again see a high-scoring affair between these familiar foes. While in some cases I would shy away from playing the 'over' in an elimination game here in the "bubble" I believe this situation is a little different. The Nuggets still believe they can get back in the series and should really push the pace in this one noting the last game was decided by just two points in favor of the Jazz, with Denver shooting 49% from the field overall and 39% from three-point range. That contest got to 252 total points despite the Nuggets getting to the free throw line only 13 times (making 12 of those attempts). Take the over (10*). | |||||||
08-24-20 | Stars v. Avalanche -160 | 5-2 | Loss | -160 | 24 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado over Dallas at 9:45 pm et on Monday. I fully expect a strong bounce-back effort from the Avalanche following a brutal performance in Game 1 of this series on Saturday night. The Avs certainly got caught flat-footed in that contest. As head coach Jared Bednar alluded to following the game, "half of the team didn't show up to play." Now Colorado is dealing with a few key injury concerns but no team is immune to that in the playoffs and I think we'll see the Avs rally around those injuries. The Stars 'run and gun' style of play has paid off at times in these playoffs, but as we saw in Game 1, even with the Avs not bringing their best effort they were still able to find the back of the net three times. Look for the Avs to even up this series on Monday night. Take Colorado (10*). | |||||||
08-24-20 | Royals v. Cardinals -175 | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 22 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis over Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I'll lay the chalk to back the Cardinals behind their ace Jack Flaherty on Monday night. Because Flaherty started the season injured, he hasn't been talked about much. Since returning he's made two starts, working 8 2/3 innings and giving up just three earned runs while posting a 9:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Remember, he was fourth in N.L. Cy Young award voting last year and an impressive 13th in MLB MVP award voting. Brad Keller will counter for Kansas City. He has yet to allow an earned run in 17 2/3 innings of work this season. His strikeouts per nine innings are up compared to last season but so are his walks. He has yet to give up a home run and is allowing just 4.1 hits per nine innings but those stats aren't sustainable. By comparison, he gave up 8.4 hits per nine innings last season, recording a 4.19 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. Take St. Louis (10*). | |||||||
08-24-20 | Pacers v. Heat OVER 216.5 | Top | 87-99 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
NBA First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Miami at 6:30 pm et on Monday. This has been a relatively low-scoring series to this point (by today's NBA standards at least). I look for some carry-over from Game 4 on Monday, however, noting that Saturday's game reached a series-high 239 total points. This is it for the Pacers. They'll be in desperation mode on Monday and they at the very least have proven they can score against Miami, having put up at least 100 points in all four previous games in this series. As for Miami, it managed to score 124 points despite shooting just 45% from the field in Game 4. The Heat were certainly aggressive, however, getting to the free throw line a whopping 52 times in that contest. Expect they to make a concerted effort to close out the Pacers here, leading to a high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
08-23-20 | Nuggets v. Jazz OVER 217 | 127-129 | Win | 100 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Utah at 9 pm et on Sunday. We missed the mark with the 'over' in Game 3 of this series on Friday but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Sunday. That missed call obviously had a lot to do with a slow start as well as a poor shooting performance from the Nuggets (38% from the field). Here, the Nuggets will need to bounce back with a better effort as this is a pivotal game in this series with the Jazz up 2-1. The first two games in the series easily eclipsed the total but the low-scoring Game 3 has helped keep the number in check here on Sunday. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
08-23-20 | Bruins v. Lightning -105 | 3-2 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Boston at 8 pm et on Sunday. I expect the Lightning to win this series and with that in mind, I'll call for them to get it off to a strong start with a victory in the opener on Sunday. This series could very well come down to goaltending. In that department I give Tampa Bay a significant edge with Andrei Vasilevskiy. Give Jaro Halak credit for backstopping the Bruins to a series win over the Hurricanes after Tuukka Rask opted out but let's face it, Halak didn't face the Canes best after Andrei Svechnikov was sidelined due to injury. The Lightning are well-positioned to go on a Stanley Cup run in the "bubble" and I look for their talent to win out in Game 1 of this series on Sunday. Take Tampa Bay (10*). | |||||||
08-23-20 | Red Sox v. Orioles OVER 10 | 4-5 | Loss | -120 | 15 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Baltimore at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'over' as the Red Sox and Orioles wrap up their series at Camden Yards on Sunday afternoon. Zack Godley will take the ball for the Red Sox. He is pitching for his third team since the start of last season, and for good reason. Godley continues to struggle, having posted a 6.87 ERA and 1.86 WHIP. His strikeouts per nine innings are up while his walks are down slightly but he's still giving up far too many hits and home runs. In fact, Godley is giving up a career-high 2.5 home runs per nine innings this season. Wade LeBlanc will counter for Baltimore. His strikeouts per nine innings are up, as are his walks and he's giving up a whopping 10.8 hits per nine innings, matching last year's average. There's little reason to believe that LeBlanc will be able to keep the Red Sox bats at bay on Sunday afternoon. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
08-22-20 | Diamondbacks v. Giants OVER 8.5 | 1-5 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and San Francisco at 9:15 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'under' in D'Backs starter Zac Gallen's most recent outing but I'll go the other way and back the 'over' as he faces the Giants on Saturday night. Gallen has been sharp to open the season and there's honestly not a lot bad I can say about him right now. But the fact is, he's facing a surging Giants offense that has climbed to 12th in the majors in runs per game and a tie for eighth in team batting average. They also rank 12th in home runs and Gallen has now allowed a home run in all five starts this season. Tyler Anderson continues to struggle for the Giants. His strikeouts per nine innings are down considerably from a year ago while his walks per nine innings sit at a disappointing 4.8 - the same number he posted last year. While his home runs allowed per nine innings are down that's only because he went from making most of his starts at Coors Field with the Rockies to a more pitcher-friendly park here in San Fran. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
08-22-20 | Bucks v. Magic UNDER 226 | 121-107 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Orlando at 1 pm et on Saturday. We saw a relatively low-scoring game by today's NBA standards in Game 2 of this series on Thursday and I look for more of the same on Saturday. The Bucks quite simply got caught flat-footed in the series-opener and Orlando took full advantage. After making the necessary adjustments, Milwaukee was able to hold the Magic to a miserable 35% shooting overall and 21% from beyond the arc in Game 2. I'm not convinced we see a big bounce-back performance from Orlando in that regard here. The Bucks will get theirs offensively but I'm not sure they'll need to keep their foot on the gas right to the final whistle. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
08-21-20 | Twins v. Royals UNDER 9 | Top | 2-7 | Push | 0 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
A.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Kansas City at 8:05 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' in Kansas City on Friday night as we have an underrated pitching matchup between Jake Odorizzi and Danny Duffy. It may come as a surprise that Odorizzi was a 15-game winner a year ago, earning a spot in the A.L. All-Star team. He's had a bit of tough luck so far this season, giving up far more home runs than usual but his strikeouts per nine innings are up and his walks are down compared to his career year in 2019. He handled the Royals in a seven-inning double-header game last week and should find some success again here. Duffy has been a middle of the road pitcher over the course of his career but has shown signs of breaking out so far this season. His strikeouts have climbed to a career-high 10.4 per nine innings while his walks are a respectable 2.6 per nine innings. He has also given up a career-best 5.9 hits per nine innings. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
08-21-20 | Flyers -130 v. Canadiens | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 41 m | Show |
NHL First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia over Montreal at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The Canadiens stunned the Flyers and staved off elimination on Wednesday night but paid a price in doing so with Brendan Gallagher suffering a broken jaw on what most would consider a very dirty play. While Montreal will certainly have all the motivation in the world to force a seventh and deciding game, I don't expect it to pull it off. It seems that it's been 'all or nothing' for the Habs in these playoffs. Keep in mind, they've scored a grand total of one goal in their three losses so far in this series but a whopping 10 goals in their two victories. Here, I expect a strong bounce-back performance from Flyers goaltender Carter Hart who would be the first to admit he wasn't good in Game 5. I don't think there's any question Philadelphia is the superior team in this matchup, even if it hasn't shown it at times. Give the Canadiens all the credit in the world for getting this far, but I think their playoff journey ends on Friday night. Take Philadelphia (10*). | |||||||
08-21-20 | Phillies v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | 2-11 | Loss | -106 | 22 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Atlanta at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The Phillies are coming off a wild double-header sweep at the hands of the Blue Jays yesterday, which included blowing a 7-0 lead in Game 2. Here, I look for a lower-scoring affair as we have an excellent pitching matchup between Aaron Nola and Max Fried. Nola is having a career-year (even though it's early). His strikeouts per nine innings are way up, hitting 12.6 while his walks are down to a career low 1.4 per nine innings. He's also giving up fewer home runs and just north of four hits per nine innings. After struggling with his command in his first two big league seasons, Max Fried has seemingly got it under control since last year. Through five starts this season he has posted an impressive 1.24 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. His strikeouts per nine innings are down slightly while his walks are up a shade, but he has yet to allow a home run in 29 innings and is giving up just 5.3 hits per nine innings. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
08-21-20 | Nuggets v. Jazz OVER 218.5 | 87-124 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Utah at 4 pm et on Friday. We've won with the 'over' in each of the first two games in this series and there's no reason to stray from our thinking here. We can expect to see major pushback from the Nuggets after their poor showing in Game 2. There were positives for them to take away from that blowout loss as they did ultimately shoot 46% from the field and 48% from three-point range. Here, I look for them to push the pace a little more and force the issue against a beatable Jazz defense. Utah turned in an incredibly clean performance in Game 2, dishing out 32 assists compared to only six turnovers. The Jazz also got whatever they wanted in the paint, holding a 48-28 scoring edge. At some point you have to figure we'll see an adjustment to this total but so far the oddsmakers are holding steady. I believe the number will prove too low once again. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
08-20-20 | Diamondbacks +1.5 v. A's | 1-5 | Loss | -141 | 23 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona +1.5 runs over Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Thursday. It's not easy to go against the A's these days but in this spot, I'm willing to take a flyer on the D'Backs with an insurance run. Alex Young will get the nod for Arizona. He has made eight appearances this season but only one start after 15 of his 17 appearances last year were starts. Note that his strikeouts per nine innings are up while his walks are down considerably. Last season, Young recorded a solid 3.56 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Sean Manaea will counter for Oakland. He's been one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball this season, allowing north of 12 hits per nine innings. His strikeouts per nine innings are down while his walks are up compared to his injury-shortened 2019 season. While the D'Backs aren't known as a prolific offensive club they did enter last night's action ranked tied for ninth in runs per game and tied for seventh in batting average (MLB ranks). Take Arizona +1.5 runs (10*). | |||||||
08-20-20 | Reds v. Cardinals UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -106 | 22 h 16 m | Show |
N.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and St. Louis at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' on Thursday as the Reds and Cardinals match up in what has the potential to be a pitcher's duel. Sonny Gray will take the ball for Cincinnati. He's arguably been the best pitcher in baseball this season, building off what was a terrific 2019 campaign. Keep in mind, he was an All-Star and finished seventh in N.L. Cy Young voting last season. So far this year, Gray's strikeouts per nine innings are up significantly while his walks are down. He's also allowing a career-low hits per nine innings. While we're certainly dealing with a small sample size, Cards veteran starter Adam Wainwright is off to a solid start as well. His strikeouts are down to 6.5 per nine innings but he's done an excellent job of limiting good contact, having yet to give up a home run and a career-low 4.1 hits per nine innings. Note that the Reds entered last night's action sitting tied for 19th in runs per game and 25th in team batting average. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
08-20-20 | Islanders +101 v. Capitals | 4-0 | Win | 101 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Washington at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. My initial lean was admittedly to the Capitals in this one but after giving it some further thought, I'm going to go the other way and back the Islanders as they look to close out the series on Thursday night. The Isles might have got caught looking ahead after jumping out to a 2-0 lead in Game 4 two nights ago. That's a mistake I'm sure they learned from as you simply can't let your foot off the proverbial throat of a team as experienced and talented as the Capitals. Here, I expect to see a sharper, more complete effort from New York. I think this is a game where we'll see Isles head coach Barry Trotz make the necessary adjustments and provide the motivation (not that it's needed at this point) for his players to turn in their best performance of the series. That's what will be necessary to wrap things up on Thursday night. Take New York (10*). | |||||||
08-20-20 | Heat -4 v. Pacers | 109-100 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami minus the points over Indiana at 1 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Heat in Game 1 of this series and we'll come right back with them again in Game 2 on Thursday afternoon. This is a mismatch as far as I'm concerned, even if it didn't look that way in the early stages of the series-opener. Once the Heat settled in they were able to essentially do whatever they wanted and ultimately stretch out the margin against the Pacers in Game 1. There's little reason to expect anything different on Thursday. The 'zig-zag theory' produced a 3-1 ATS record in yesterday's playoff contests, but I expect a different story to unfold on Thursday. Take Miami (10*). | |||||||
08-19-20 | Astros v. Rockies UNDER 12.5 | 13-6 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday. I'll go the contrarian route once again and back the 'under' as the Astros and Rockies shift their series to Coors Field on Wednesday night. Framber Valdez will take the ball for Houston. He's off to a terrific start in his third big league season. Valdez has seen his strikeouts per nine innings go up while his walks per nine innings have dropped significantly. He's also giving up fewer hits and home runs. Meanwhile, Rockies rookie Ryan Castellani has pitched well in limited action so far this season, allowing just two hits and one earned run in 8 2/3 innings of work. We won with the 'under' in his most recent start, a 3-2 loss to the Rangers last week. While the Astros did enter yesterday's action ranking tied for eighth in baseball in runs per game, they were just 17th in batting average and 22nd in slugging percentage. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
08-19-20 | Hurricanes v. Bruins -149 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 19 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston over Carolina at 4 pm et on Wednesday. The Bruins have been a different team since goaltender Tuukka Rask opted out of the NHL Playoffs this past Saturday morning. Since then, they've gone 2-0, outscoring the Canes by a 7-3 margin and outshooting them 72-49. If we were going to see some pushback from Carolina it would have come in Game 4 on Monday. While the Canes did jump out to a 2-0 lead, they didn't seem to be the aggressors. The Bruins essentially toyed with them in the final period, scoring four unanswered goals. While I'm not a big believer in momentum, I do feel Boston is well-positioned to keep rolling here. Carolina looked like an awfully deep team against the Rangers last round but that depth has been tested with Andrei Svechnikov sidelined, shaking up their lines significantly. They haven't been able to truly recover and won't here. Take Boston (10*). | |||||||
08-19-20 | Jazz v. Nuggets OVER 217.5 | 124-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Utah and Denver at 4 pm et on Wednesday. Game 1 in this series eclipsed the total with ease and while the oddsmakers have raised the total slightly for Game 2, I don't believe it will be enough. It's interesting that the series-opener got to a whopping 260 points despite the fact there were only 32 made free throws in the game. Both teams got all the open looks they wanted and I don't see a whole lot changing here in Game 2. The Jazz are obviously going to need more production from players not named Donovan Mitchell after he poured in 57 points in Game 1. I'm expecting Utah to do a much better job of capitalizing on its opportunities at the offensive end of the floor, noting that it did pull in 16 offensive boards on Monday. Meanwhile, the Jazz didn't have an answer for the Nuggets offense last time out and I don't see much changing on Wednesday. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
08-19-20 | Blue Jays v. Orioles +107 | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baltimore over Toronto at 1:05 pm et on Wednesday. I don't feel the Blue Jays have any business being favored in this game and can certainly see the line moving before first pitch on Wednesday afternoon Tanner Roark will take the ball for Toronto. Roark is pitching for his fourth different team since the start of 2018, which is telling. He hasn't pitched particularly well with any of those teams and is off to another tough start this season. Note that his strikeouts per nine innings are down while his walks are way up (6.8 per nine innings). He allowed a career-high 2.3 home runs per nine innings this season and has matched that number so far this season. Tommy Milone will counter for Baltimore. He was on the wrong end of a 15-3 loss to the Nationals in his last start. However, he has actually been fairly effective this season, with his strikeouts per nine innings up and his walks down. He has also finally been able to keep the ball in the park, allowing just 0.5 home runs per nine innings - a career-low even if we are talking about a small sample size. Take Baltimore (10*). | |||||||
08-18-20 | Blackhawks v. Golden Knights -185 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 25 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Vegas over Chicago at 10:30 pm et on Tuesday. | |||||||
08-18-20 | A's v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | 1-10 | Win | 100 | 21 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Oakland and Arizona at 6:10 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'over' as the A's and D'Backs do battle in a late afternoon affair on Tuesday. Frankie Montas will take the ball for Oakland. While he has posted a 1.57 ERA through four starts this season his strikeouts per nine innings are down while his walks are up compared to the last two seasons. He's yet to give up a single home run but that's obviously not a sustainable trend. Luke Weaver will counter for Arizona. He has been one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball this season, allowing north of 14 hits per nine innings, not to mention a ridiculous 4.6 home runs. While Weaver's strikeouts are up, so are his walks issued. Needless to say he's going to face a tough challenge in the hot hitting A's on Tuesday. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
08-18-20 | Heat -4.5 v. Pacers | 113-101 | Win | 100 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami minus the points over Indiana at 4 pm et on Tuesday. I'll lay the points with the Heat as they open their first round playoff series with the Pacers on Tuesday afternoon. This will actually be the third meeting in just over a week between these two teams with each side winning one of those matchups. Both games were ultimately blowouts but we can put a lot more stock in Miami's 114-92 win back on August 10th as the second matchup saw most key cogs sit. The Pacers have enjoyed a nice run here in the "bubble" but I'm much higher on the Heat and had this line pegged 1.5 points higher than we're dealing with at the time of writing. Take Miami (10*). | |||||||
08-17-20 | A's v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 24 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Oakland and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Monday. | |||||||
08-17-20 | Giants v. Angels OVER 9.5 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between San Francisco and Los Angeles at 9:40 pm et on Monday. I'm expecting a high-scoring affair between the Giants and Angels on Monday night in Anaheim. Tyler Anderson will take the ball for San Francisco. He has yet to make it more than five innings in any of his three starts this season. Note that Anderson's strikeouts per nine innings are way down from his previous work with the Rockies while his walks per nine innings are up significantly to nearly six. He'll have his hands full with the Angels lineup on Monday. Griffin Canning counters for Los Angeles. He didn't have a banner rookie campaign a year ago and has struggled again in early season action here in 2020. Like Anderson, Canning's strikeouts per nine innings are down while his walks are up. He's also allowing two home runs per nine innings. Off a tough weekend series against the red hot A's, look for the Giants to do some damage at the plate tonight. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
08-17-20 | Padres v. Rangers UNDER 8.5 | 14-4 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 2 m | Show | |
**NO PLAY DUE TO PITCHING CHANGE** My selection is on the 'under' between San Diego and Texas at 9:05 pm et on Monday. The Rangers entered Sunday's action ranking 29th in baseball in runs per game but ninth in runs allowed per contest. Expect another low-scoring game featuring the Rangers here as they send Mike Minor to the hill against Zach Davies. Minor's overall numbers aren't great but it's worth noting his strikeouts per nine innings are up slightly while his home runs and hits allowed per nine innings are down compared to last year as well. He needs to work on his command but I do think that will turn around. Davies has been terrific for the Padres, posting a career high in strikeouts per innings and a career low walks per nine innings in the early going. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
08-17-20 | Mavs v. Clippers -6 | 110-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Dallas at 9 pm et on Monday. I'll lay the points with the Clippers in the opener of their series with the Mavericks on Monday night. After getting off to a rocky start here at Disney dropping two of their first three contests, the Clippers turned it around winning four of their last five. That included a 15-point rout of the Mavericks on August 6th. Dallas has been marred by inconsistent play, particularly at the defensive end of the floor, here in the "bubble" and I simply don't see it getting off to a roaring start to the playoffs against a Clippers squad that will be looking to make a statement right out of the gates. All things considered, I believe we're being asked to lay a very reasonable number with the vastly superior team on Monday night. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
08-17-20 | Bruins v. Hurricanes OVER 5 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 25 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Carolina at 8 pm et on Monday. The Canes are going to need a much bigger push than we saw from them on Saturday afternoon if they're going to even this series up at a game apiece on Monday night. The Bruins are now without goaltender Tuukka Rask after he opted out of the NHL Playoffs earlier on Saturday. Jaro Halak is certainly a capable backup and turned aside 29 of 30 shots on Saturday. I'm just not sure we'll see that same level of performance against a more desperate Canes squad on Monday. Boston hasn't had a great deal of trouble breaking down the Canes defense in this series, mounting a huge attack with 39 shots on goal on Saturday. Expect the B's to find continued success. The Canes have one of the weaker goaltending tandems of all playoff teams. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
08-17-20 | 76ers +6 v. Celtics | 101-109 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Boston at 6:30 pm et on Monday. The Celtics were red hot near the tail-end of regular season play in the "bubble", reeling off four straight wins before falling with most of their key cogs resting in their finale against the Wizards. Here, they draw a tough opening round matchup against a 76ers squad they struggled against during the regular season, dropping three of four meetings. Of course, Philadelphia is a different team without Ben Simmons. That being said, the Sixers have held up well in "bubble" action to this point, particularly at the offensive end of the floor. They've learned to play without their star guard and I believe they enter the playoffs with a big chip on their shoulder against the favored Celtics. Look for a tightly-contested affair in Game 1 on Monday. Take Philadelphia (10*). | |||||||
08-17-20 | Nets +10 v. Raptors | 110-134 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Brooklyn plus the points over Toronto at 4 pm et on Monday. I'll grab the generous helping of points with the Nets on Monday as they aim to take their first step in dethroning the defending NBA champion Raptors. While that will be a tall task indeed, here we're only looking for Brooklyn to give Toronto a run. The Raptors are generally slow starters in playoff series' having gone an absolutely dreadful 4-15 SU and 5-14 ATS in their last 19 series openers. The Nets have been one of the most undervalued commodities in the "bubble". While they have a ton of absences, there's no question they've come together and played their best basketball of the season here at Disney. The Raps win Game 1 but it should be close. Take Brooklyn (10*). | |||||||
08-16-20 | Capitals -109 v. Islanders | 1-2 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington over New York at 12 noon et on Sunday. The Capitals have been in each of the first two games of this series and I'm confident they make a statement with a big effort on Sunday afternoon. Give credit to the Isles for grabbing a 2-0 series lead but now things get tough as they look to take a stranglehold. Last year the Isles stunningly swept the Penguins in the opening round. I simply don't see the Caps suffering the same fate. Take Washington (10*). | |||||||
08-15-20 | Rangers v. Rockies -157 | 6-4 | Loss | -157 | 22 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado over Texas at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. Rockies starter German Marquez has proven time and time again that he can tame opposing bats at hitter-friendly Coors Field and I look for him to do it again on Saturday night against the Rangers. Marquez is off to a fine start this season, even if he was unable to guide the Rockies to a win against the Mariners in his last start. His numbers are very comparable to the last two seasons, in which he has posted an impressive 26-16 record with an ERA hovering around four - not half bad for pitching the majority of his games at Coors Field. Note that Marquez has posted an ERA just north of two while also cutting his hits and home runs allowed per nine innings down considerably over a year ago. Meanwhile, Rangers starter Kyle Gibson has struggled with his new club and perhaps we should have seen that coming. His numbers have generally gotten worse over the back half of his career since he made his debut back in 2013. The Twins cut him loose after he posted a 4.84 ERA and 1.44 WHIP last season. So far this year his walks per nine innings are up while his strikeouts are down not to mention he's allowing more hits and home runs. Take Colorado (10*). | |||||||
08-15-20 | Lightning -169 v. Blue Jackets | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 42 m | Show |
NHL Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Columbus at 7:38 pm et on Saturday. The Blue Jackets seem to be at their absolute best when facing adversity, just as we saw in Game 2 of this series after they were badly outplayed early on and fell behind 1-0. Now that they've evened this series at a game apiece, I look for a bit of a letdown from the Jackets as the Lightning's superior talent should shine through on Saturday evening in Toronto. Tampa Bay applied plenty of pressure on Columbus in Game 2, but simply didn't have any bounces go its way in an eventual 3-1 defeat. The Lightning are obviously loaded with offensive firepower and I would certainly expect to see a sharper performance on Saturday. Tampa goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy didn't bring his 'A' game in Game 2 but I do expect a solid bounce-back effort from him here. While we're being asked to lay a considerable price to back the Lightning, I do feel it is warranted. Take Tampa Bay (10*). | |||||||
08-15-20 | A's v. Giants +1.5 | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco +1.5 runs over Oakland at 7:07 pm et on Saturday. NOTE: Manaea starting for Montas for Oakland. The play remains on the Giants +1.5 at a slightly less favorable price. I'll take a shot with the Giants plus the insurance run as they try to bounce back from last night's highly disappointing extra innings loss to the A's. Oakland staged a five-run ninth inning rally in that contest, snatching victory from the jaws of defeat as they say. Here, they'll hand the ball to Frankie Montas and I feel he's become a little overvalued. Note that Montas' walks per nine innings are up this season while his strikeouts are down slightly. Meanwhile, he's yet to allow a single home run, which as we obviously know is certainly not sustainable even if he has had a penchant for keeping the ball in the yard over the course of his young career. Veteran Kevin Gausman has actually pitched reasonably well for the Giants. In fact, he's put together a solid run since joining the Reds late last season, bumping up his strikeouts per nine innings while doing a good job of keeping his walks down (he's issuing just 0.9 walks per nine innings this season). Keep in mind, the A's check in ranked T24 in hits per game and 27th in batting average. Take San Francisco +1.5 runs (10*). |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ricky Tran | $756 |
ProSportsPicks | $632 |
Joseph D'Amico | $510 |
Joey Tron | $450 |
Tom Macrina | $399 |
Nick Parsons | $344 |
Sean Murphy | $306 |
Jack Jones | $303 |
William Burns | $233 |
Dan Kaiser | $220 |