Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
01-20-24 | Capitals v. Blues -118 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis over Washington at 8 pm et on Saturday. The Blues aren’t really going anywhere this season, mired in the middle of the pack as they continue in no man’s land between being competitive and a complete rebuild. I do like the spot for them on Saturday, however, as they get a quick revenge game following a 5-2 loss in Washington on Thursday. That marked St. Louis’ third straight loss. This is the spot for it to reverse course before heading to western Canada for a road trip. The Blues remain a winning team on home ice this season while the Capitals have admittedly played better lately but still average just 2.4 goals per game on the road. I don’t think that cuts it in this matchup on Saturday. Take St. Louis (8*). | |||||||
01-20-24 | Georgia +12 v. Kentucky | 96-105 | Win | 100 | 22 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Georgia plus the points over Kentucky at 6 pm et on Saturday. I'm not buying what the betting marketplace is selling when it comes to Kentucky. The Wildcats are coming off a rout of Mississippi State on Wednesday as they quite simply shot the lights out and also enjoyed a considerable advantage at the free throw line. Still, the Wildcats defense continues to struggle. Kentucky has allowed 26 or more made field goals in six straight games and 25 or more in 12 contests in a row. Georgia got off to a miserable start this season but has since turned things around, going 11-1 SU and 8-3-1 ATS over its last 12 games. The Bulldogs have limited four of their last six opponents to 25 or fewer made field goals. Note that the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series. We'll confidently fade the Wildcats knowing they've gone 8-15 ATS in their last 23 games following a home win in which they scored 85 points or more, as is the case here. Georgia is 6-3 ATS in its last nine contests following an upset win, which is also the situation on Saturday. Take Georgia (8*). | |||||||
01-20-24 | Texans v. Ravens OVER 43.5 | Top | 10-34 | Win | 100 | 29 h 58 m | Show |
AFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Baltimore at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. This total has dropped considerably since opening in part due to weather concerns with cold temperatures and potentially gusting winds playing a factor. I'm not overly concerned. The first meeting between these two teams this season was a bit of a stinker as Baltimore rolled to a 25-9 victory. Needless to say, the Texans are a much different team now than they were then (that previous matchup came in Week 1). Rookie QB C.J. Stroud is the real deal. I like the way this Texans offense has evolved over the course of the season. As good as the Ravens defense is, it is by no means perfect. Baltimore has actually allowed 4.5 yards per rush this season. Going back to mid-October, the Ravens were torched for 120+ rushing yards in eight of their last 12 games. There's undoubtedly a path forward for the Texans offense here and I'm confident we'll see them play loose. Head coach DeMeco Ryans is defensive-minded without question but I like the way he let the offense cook down the stretch and certainly in last week's playoff opener against Cleveland. Note that Houston has scored 20+ points in nine of its last 11 games, only failing to reach that number in a game where Stroud suffered a concussion and then when he missed the next week. Of note, Baltimore will be without top CB Marlon Humphrey for this game, easing the matchup for Texans breakout WR Nico Collins as well. Enough about the Texans, let's talk about the Ravens electric offense. I don't think Houston is going to have many answers against a well-rested Baltimore offense. The Texans haven't performed particularly well against the pass, in fact they've been downright awful in that regard at times. They've also struggled to contain opposing quarterbacks on the ground, yielding seven rushing touchdowns over the course of the season. Everything is on the table for the Baltimore offense here and I don't expect it to take its foot off the gas pedal for one moment in this game. Note that the 'over' is 23-15 in the Texans last 38 games when seeking revenge for a loss by 14 points or more against an opponent. When that previous blowout loss came on the road the 'over' has gone 15-7 in their last 22 contests. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 6-3 in the Ravens last nine games following a loss against a division opponent, as is the case here. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
01-20-24 | Texans v. Ravens -9.5 | Top | 10-34 | Win | 100 | 29 h 47 m | Show |
Divisional Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over Houston at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. I don't think it can be understated just how well the Ravens were playing prior to resting their starters in Week 18 against Pittsburgh (they lost that game 17-10). They had won six straight games heading into that contest, going 5-1 ATS over that stretch. The wins were all impressive including a 37-31 victory over the Rams in a rainstorm in Baltimore, a 33-19 rout of the 49ers in Santa Clara and a 56-19 dismantling of the Dolphins at home. I love what the Texans have done this season. They're undoubtedly a team on the rise and C.J. Stroud is already being talked about as a top-five quarterback in the league (rightfully so). They're running into an extremely difficult matchup here, however. The Ravens aren't the type of team to take their foot off the gas and they have favorable matchups all over the field on offense. Not only has Houston struggled to defend the pass this season but it has had a miserable time containing running quarterbacks, having allowed a whopping seven rushing touchdowns to opposing signal-callers. Derek Stingley Jr. erased Amari Cooper in last week's blowout win over the Browns but he'll be hard-pressed to do so against anyone particular in the Ravens multi-pronged aerial attack on Saturday. With TE Mark Andrews trending toward playing trouble abounds for the second level of the Texans defense. Even if Andrews can't go, TE Isaiah Likely figures to go off. Note that Houston is 4-7 ATS in its last 11 games following an upset victory, as is the case here. In fact, the Texans are 7-16 ATS in their last 23 contests following an outright win as a home underdog. They're also 8-19 ATS in their last 27 games following three straight ATS victories. Meanwhile, the Ravens are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a loss against a division opponent. They're also 35-27 ATS in their last 62 contests following a home loss. Take Baltimore (10*). | |||||||
01-19-24 | Suns v. Pelicans UNDER 237.5 | 123-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and New Orleans at 8:10 pm et on Friday. I'm not buying the high posted total in this matchup as the Suns and Pelicans both come in rested in advance of Friday's matchup in New Orleans. Note that the Suns have been held to 46 or fewer made field goals in each of their last 10 games. On the flip side, they've limited 14 of their last 15 opponents to 46 or fewer made field goals. Of course, that's a reasonably high number of field goals to knock down in a game but not when we're dealing with a total approaching 240 points. The Pelicans have proven to be elite defensively this season. They enter Friday's contest having held an incredible 12 of their last 13 opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. That's no fluke. You would have to go back six games to find the last time a New Orleans opponent managed to get off more than 90 field goal attempts. Meanwhile, the Pelicans have knocked down 44 or fewer field goals in four straight games. Note that the 'over' has cashed in five straight meetings in this series. That's the longest streak since 2019-20. That previous 'over' streak ended at five games as the next meeting totalled just 197 points. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
01-19-24 | Nuggets +6 v. Celtics | Top | 102-100 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Denver plus the points over Boston at 7:40 pm et on Friday. The Celtics are an incredible 20-0 at home this season but I do think the Nuggets are poised to give them a run on Friday at TD Garden. Boston is coming off three straight wins, both SU and ATS. Note that the Celtics are just 12-23 ATS in their last 35 games following consecutive ATS victories in a favorite role and 3-6 ATS in their last nine contests when coming off three straight covers as a fave, as is the case here. Boston is also 6-11 ATS in its last 17 games after holding consecutive opponents to 100 points or less, which is also the situation here. Denver had virtually all hands on deck for Tuesday's game in Philadelphia but ultimately fell by a 126-121 score. Having had a couple of days off to chew on that loss, I look for the Nuggets to bounce back on Friday. Note that Denver is 24-15 ATS in its last 39 contests after losing five or six of its last seven games ATS, as is the case here. The Nuggets check in red hot offensively having knocked down 45 or more field goals in five of their last six games. They figure to be afforded plenty of scoring opportunities against a Celtics squad that has allowed more than 90 field goal attempts in 12 straight games. Take Denver (10*). | |||||||
01-19-24 | 76ers v. Magic +5.5 | 124-109 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The 76ers have owned the Magic in recent years but I like the way this spot sets up for Orlando at home on Friday. The Magic are admittedly in a bit of an offensive funk right now but that will happen when you go on a road trip that includes stops in Miami, Oklahoma City, New York and Atlanta (I'm not saying the Hawks are an elite defensive team but they are tough at home). I do think the Magic are catching the 76ers at the right time as Philadelphia has looked beatable defensively in recent games, allowing 43, 46, 48, 32, 44 and 45 made field goals over its last six contests. On the flip side, the 76ers have been held to 43 or fewer made field goals themselves in seven of their last eight games. Orlando should get a boost from returning home and it's worth noting that it has held opponents to an average of just 39 made field goals per game on this floor. You would have to go back seven games to find the last time the Magic allowed an opponent to knock down more than 43 field goals. Note that Philadelphia is a long-term 29-32 ATS in its last 61 games following three consecutive ATS wins as a favorite, as is the case here. The Magic are 71-57 ATS in their last 128 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent and 21-16 ATS in their last 37 contests following a loss by six points or less. Take Orlando (8*). | |||||||
01-19-24 | Devils -160 v. Blue Jackets | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 23 h 54 m | Show |
Metropolitan Division Game of the Month. My selection is on New Jersey over Columbus at 7:05 pm et on Friday. I like the bounce-back spot for the Devils on Friday as they look to respond following Wednesday's 3-2 home loss against the Canadiens. Columbus has been idle since Monday which isn't necessarily a good thing when you consider it is coming off a stunning win over the Canucks. The Blue Jackets probably would have liked to get right back on the ice after that victory but instead had to sit idle for three full days. Note that Columbus is still just 9-16 on home ice this season. Meanwhile, New Jersey has continued a trend that began last season, playing better hockey on the road than at home, going 13-8 in enemy territory. The Devils check in having gone 11-7 when coming off consecutive games in which they allowed three or more goals this season, as is the case here. Columbus is just 1-6 when coming off a home win in which it scored at least four goals. The favorite has gone 8-1 in the last nine meetings in this series. Take New Jersey (10*). | |||||||
01-19-24 | St. Peter's v. Fairfield UNDER 135.5 | Top | 67-76 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
MAAC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between St. Peter's and Fairfield at 7 pm et on Friday. Fairfield is riding a six-game 'over' streak entering Friday's matchup against St. Peter's. I believe that streak is in serious jeopardy here, however, as the Peacocks roll into town sporting a top-100 defense (in terms of KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency rankings) but an exceptionally slow (and reasonably weak) offense. Fairfield's defensive play has been subpar for most of the season but I question whether St. Peter's can take full advantage. The Peacocks did score 81 points in their most recent game but that was against a lifeless Manhattan squad. Note that St. Peter's has been held to 22 or fewer made field goals in seven of its last eight games. On the flip side, it has incredibly held all 14 opponents it has faced this season to 24 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 18-11 in the Peacocks last 29 games following an in-conference victory. The 'under' is also 13-8 in their last 21 contests following a double-digit win. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 13-4 in the Stags last 17 games following a double-digit win in an underdog role, as is the case here. When that win came on the road, the 'under' has gone a perfect 9-0 over that stretch. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
01-18-24 | Washington State +2.5 v. Stanford | 89-75 | Win | 100 | 26 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington State plus the points over Stanford at 11 pm et on Thursday. I have little faith in Stanford's matador-like defense, noting that the Cardinal have allowed 27 or more made field goals in six of their last seven games and have yielded 61 or more field goal attempts to the opposition in eight of their last 10 contests. On the flip side, Washington State checks in having held 12 of its last 15 opponents to 61 or fewer field goal attempts. The Cougars rank 54th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. While Stanford's pace will certainly test Washington State, I don't think it's anything the Cougars haven't seen before. After all, they just upset Arizona (which ranks ninth in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom) last Saturday. Note that Washington State is 19-12 ATS in its last 31 games following a win in-conference as an underdog of six points or more, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Stanford is just 1-5 ATS in its last six contests off consecutive victories in-conference. Take Washington State (8*). | |||||||
01-18-24 | Rangers v. Golden Knights UNDER 6 | Top | 1-5 | Push | 0 | 28 h 19 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Vegas at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. You would have to go back eight meetings in this series, all the way to December of 2018 to find the last time we saw an 'over' result. I expect goals to come at a premium on Thursday as well. New York checks in off consecutive wins, rebounding from its recent four-game losing streak. Note that the Rangers have gone 13-9 on the road this season, where they've allowed just 2.8 goals per game. The 'under' is 32-26 in their last 58 contests following a win by three goals or more, as is the case here. While the Golden Knights have struggled to find the win column lately they have continued to play tough defensive hockey. Note that Vegas has held the opposition to just 2.3 goals per game on home ice this season. The Knights will need to continue to lean on that defense with a number of key contributors sidelined, including Jack Eichel. Note that the 'under' is 27-19 in Vegas' last 46 games following a home win in which it scored four goals or more. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
01-18-24 | Bulls -2.5 v. Raptors | 116-110 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago minus the points over Toronto at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. The Raptors played with plenty of emotion on the same day Pascal Siakam was dealt to the Pacers, routing the Heat to snap a four-game losing streak. Now they're in a tough back-to-back spot, however, as they host a rested Bulls squad that should be in a foul mood following Monday's no-show in Cleveland. That blowout loss in Cleveland brought an end to Chicago's streak of five straight games knocking down 40 or more field goals. It wasn't all bad news, however, as the Bulls did hold Cleveland to just 39 made field goals - their second straight contest limiting the opposition to fewer than 40 made field goals. Note that Chicago checks in 33-27 ATS in its last 60 games when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent, as is the case here. Take Chicago (8*). | |||||||
01-18-24 | Blues +102 v. Capitals | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. While Washington may own the slightly better overall record, I'm not convinced it is the better team in this matchup. Noting that the underdog has gone 6-1-1 in the last eight meetings in this series, we'll confidently back the well-rested Blues as they head to Washington on Thursday. St. Louis hasn't played since Sunday, when it dropped its second straight game on home ice against the Flyers. On Monday, we saw the Capitals skate to a 2-0 victory at home against the Ducks. Note that Washington is just 6-9 in its last 15 games following a shutout win. It is also a long-term 26-34 in its last 60 contests after posting a win by two goals or more. Meanwhile, St. Louis checks in 23-19 in its last 42 games after giving up four goals or more in consecutive games, as is the case here. The Blues are also 5-1 this season when coming off a home loss by two goals or more. Take St. Louis (8*). | |||||||
01-17-24 | Nets -6 v. Blazers | 103-105 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Brooklyn minus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Trail Blazers stunned the Nets in Brooklyn last week, winning 134-127 as 9.5-point underdogs. I look for the Nets to answer back as the scene shifts to the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday. Brooklyn should be able to put plenty of pressure on the Blazers sagging defense here. The Nets have hoisted up more than 90 field goal attempts in eight of their last nine games. Portland, meanwhile, has allowed 44 or more made field goals in five of its last six contests and hasn't really had the ability to dictate the tempo of its opposition this season. While Brooklyn has lost three straight games and eight of its last nine overall, it has at least shown signs of righting the ship defensively. The Nets have held six of their last seven opponents to 88 or fewer field goal attempts and four of their last six foes to 41 or fewer made field goals. Note that Brooklyn is 6-3 ATS in its last nine games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent as a favorite of seven points or more. It also checks in 17-13 ATS in its last 30 contests following three straight losses. Meanwhile, the Blazers are a long-term 19-32 ATS as a home underdog and 11-19 ATS in their last 30 home games as an underdog of six points or less. Take Brooklyn (8*). | |||||||
01-17-24 | Canadiens v. Devils OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -108 | 23 h 45 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Montreal and New Jersey at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Canadiens aren't rolling over for anyone right now, noting they've gone just 2-3 over their last five games but none of those losses came by more than a single goal. They should be feeling pretty good about themselves entering Wednesday's matchup in Newark as they're fresh off a 4-3 win over the Avalanche on Monday. The Devils will undoubtedly be in a foul mood following Monday's 3-0 shutout loss in Boston. Scoring hasn't really been an issue for the Devils lately, even without Jack Hughes among others. New Jersey had scored 21 goals over its previous five games prior to Monday's setback. The problem for the Devils here at home this season has been their inability to keep the puck out of their own net as they've allowed 3.7 goals per contest. Note that the 'over' is 13-8 in the Canadiens last 21 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 21-13 in the Devils last 34 contests following a road loss by three goals or more and 10-7 in their last 17 games following a loss of any sort. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
01-17-24 | Mississippi State +7 v. Kentucky | Top | 77-90 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
SEC Game of the Year. My selection is on Mississippi State plus the points over Kentucky at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Both of these teams are coming off narrow defeats in conference play with Mississippi State dropping an 82-74 decision at home against Alabama and Kentucky falling by a 97-92 score at Texas A&M. I don't believe there's as much separating these two squads as the line would seem to indicate. The Bulldogs are an elite defensive team, currently ranked inside the top-10 in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. Incredibly, they've held all 16 opponents they've faced to 28 or fewer made field goals this season with 12 of those knocking down 24 or less. Kentucky does play at a considerably faster pace than Mississippi State but there's no denying its opponents have been 'filling it up' as it has allowed 26 or more made field goals in 10 of its last 11 contests. On the flip side, the Wildcats have regularly been connecting on 30+ field goals but they've also gotten off 63 or more field goal attempts in six of their last seven contests. Only six of Mississippi State's 16 opponents have hoisted up more than 60 field goal attempts this season with a high water mark of only 64. This is a game the Bulldogs have undoubtedly had circled on their calendar having lost two straight meetings in this series. Note that while Kentucky has controlled this series for the most part, the games have been close with six straight matchups having been decided by eight points or less. Mississippi State is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games when coming off an upset loss as a favorite in-conference, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Kentucky is just 10-16 ATS in its last 26 contests after winning two of its last three games ATS. Take Mississippi State (10*). | |||||||
01-16-24 | Coyotes v. Flames UNDER 6 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Calgary at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. These two teams just met in Arizona less than a week ago with the Flames skating to a 6-2 victory. The Coyotes rebounded nicely from that loss, opening their current road trip with a 6-0 rout of the Wild in Minnesota on Saturday. The Flames are locked-in defensively right now having held eight of their last nine opponents to three goals or less. Calgary has held opponents to just 2.9 goals per game at home this season and interestingly, Arizona has limited the opposition to an identical 2.9 goals per contest on the road. Note that the 'under' is 14-9 in the Coyotes last 23 games when seeking revenge for a loss by four goals or more against an opponent. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 19-9 in Calgary's last 28 contests after scoring three goals or more in four consecutive games, as is the case here. Additionally, the 'under' is 10-6 in the Flames last 16 games following consecutive road wins. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
01-16-24 | Georgia Tech v. Clemson OVER 150.5 | Top | 93-90 | Win | 100 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Georgia Tech and Clemson at 9 pm et on Tuesday. This one sets up as a high-scoring affair between two struggling ACC squads on Tuesday. Georgia Tech has lost five straight games, going 1-4 ATS over that stretch. The Yellow Jackets do play an entertaining brand of basketball if nothing else having knocked down 25 or more field goals in seven of their last eight contests. The problem is they've operated a matador-like defense, allowing their four ACC foes to date to connect on 31, 35, 24 and 27 field goals. They were fortunate in the latter two games as both Notre Dame and Duke shot poorly but actually got into the 60's in terms of field goal attempts. In fact, four straight and 12 of Georgia Tech's last 15 opponents have hoisted up at least 60 field goal attempts. Clemson snapped a three-game losing streak with an 89-78 win over Boston College last time out. The Tigers have been outstanding offensively, knocking down 30 or more field goals in five of their last seven games. On the flip side, they've allowed three of their four ACC opponents to make good on 30 or more field goals. Note that the 'over' is 17-13 in the Yellow Jackets last 30 games following an in-conference loss. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 24-19 in Clemson's last 43 contests off an ATS victory. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
01-16-24 | Baylor v. Kansas State UNDER 142.5 | Top | 64-68 | Win | 100 | 24 h 37 m | Show |
Big 12 Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Baylor and Kansas State at 8 pm et on Wednesday. Kansas State faces a tall task as it looks to avoid a two-game skid when it hosts Baylor on Tuesday. The Bears have been ultra-efficient offensively this season, ranking fourth in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency (according to KenPom). I do question whether we'll see Baylor thrive in this particular matchup, however, noting that Kansas State has held four straight opponents to 22 or fewer made field goals and seven of its last nine foes to 23 or less. In fact, the Wildcats check in 31st in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency (also according to KenPom). Neither team really pushes the pace with the Bears ranking 219th and the Wildcats' 267th in adjusted tempo. Note that the 'under' is 11-3 in Baylor's last 14 games following a win by six points or less, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 27-19 in Kansas State's last 46 contests off an ATS win but SU loss as an underdog. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
01-16-24 | Nuggets v. 76ers OVER 227.5 | 121-126 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Philadelphia at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. This matchup features two of the league's better defensive teams to be sure but it hasn't necessarily looked like that lately. Denver enters this contest having allowed six straight opponents to knock down more than 40 field goals. While the 76ers have had their issues offensively over the last couple of weeks, we have seen them start to push the pace a little, hoisting up 90+ field goal attempts in six of their last 10 games. Denver has had no such issues offensively, connecting on 48, 48, 47, 37, 50 and 46 field goals over its last six contests. The scoring opportunities should be there on Tuesday, noting that Philadelphia, while generally stout defensively, has allowed five of its last six opponents to get off 88 or more field goal attempts. Note that the 'over' is 40-23 in the Nuggets last 63 games after losing four or five of their last six games ATS, as is the case here. The 'over' is also 53-39 in Philadelphia's last 92 contests as a favorite. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
01-15-24 | Warriors v. Grizzlies +8.5 | Top | 107-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Golden State at 6 pm et on Monday. The Warriors opened their current road trip with a win in Chicago as they rallied for a wild 140-131 victory. They couldn't keep it going the next night as they dropped a double-digit decision in Milwaukee (Steph Curry was given the night off). While this looks like a prime bounce-back spot given the current state of the Grizzlies roster, I'm not so easily convinced. Memphis lost by 'only' 11 points against a red hot Knicks squad with a lineup that looked like what you would expect in the preseason on Saturday. Note that the Grizzlies have held five of their last seven opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. Regardless who is able to suit up for Memphis on Monday, it should thrive offensively. Note that the opposition has been 'filling it up' against the Warriors lately, knocking down 50 or more field goals in four straight games against them and 48 or more in six of the last eight contests. Note that the underdog has gone 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings in this series. The Grizzlies check in 17-10 ATS in their last 27 games after scoring 100 points or less in their previous contest, as is the case here. They're also 27-17 ATS in their lat 44 games following consecutive ATS losses. Take Memphis (10*). | |||||||
01-15-24 | Steelers v. Bills -10 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 45 h 29 m | Show |
Wild Card Game of the Year. My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over Pittsburgh at 4:30 pm et on Monday. UPDATE: This game has been moved to Monday. I’ll still be playing the Bills minus the points. Weather can be the great equalizer at this time of year and with high winds projected for kickoff of this Wild Card matchup on Sunday afternoon in Orchard Park, there are those that believe that will favor the underdog Steelers who are essentially playing with house money at this point. I think it's going to be a real struggle for Pittsburgh to score points in this game, regardless how the weather turns out. Buffalo somewhat quietly enters this game riding a five-game winning streak including a 21-14 victory in Miami last Sunday night to secure the AFC East division title and the Wild Card home game that goes with it. Unlike previous years, the Bills have been forced to essentially play playoff football for weeks just to get into the postseason. I think that actually works in their favor this year and while the road to the Super Bowl runs through Baltimore in the AFC, I believe the argument can be made that the Bills are playing as well as any team in the conference right now. Pittsburgh is in this game thanks to a three-game stretch at the end of the regular season that saw it face the Bengals (without Joe Burrow among others), Seahawks (who got worse as the season went on) and the Ravens (resting the majority of their starters). Note that the Steelers are just 4-7 ATS in their last 11 games following a road win. Meanwhile, Buffalo is 20-14 ATS in its last 34 home contests as a favorite of between 7.5 and 14 points. Take Buffalo (10*). | |||||||
01-15-24 | Canucks v. Blue Jackets OVER 6.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Vancouver and Columbus at 1:05 pm et on Monday. The Blue Jackets have predictably struggled this season while the Canucks have been the talk of the league, in the conversation for the best team in hockey. This is admittedly a difficult spot for Vancouver as it wraps up a long seven-game road trip having already won five of the first six contests. The Canucks are coming off a 1-0 victory in Buffalo on Saturday. Note that the 'over' is a perfect 5-0 when Vancouver comes off a game in which it scored one goal or less this season. The 'over' is also 13-9 in the Canucks last 22 contests following a game that totalled three goals or less. The Blue Jackets limp into this matchup having lost three games in a row. They've giving up 3.6 goals per game on home ice this season. The 'over' is 31-16 in their last 47 games following three straight losses. Columbus has been downright sieve-like defensively over the last three weeks, allowing four goals or more in three straight and seven of its last nine games overall. The 'over' is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these two teams in Columbus. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
01-14-24 | Rams +3 v. Lions | Top | 23-24 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
NFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Detroit at 8:15 pm et on Sunday. The Rams enter the playoffs playing as well as anyone over the last two months, winners of seven of their last eight games having gone 6-2 ATS over that stretch. They're in their sweet spot on Sunday as they've gone 25-18 ATS in their last 43 road games as an underdog of three points or less. Meanwhile, the Lions are just 12-19 ATS in their last 31 games following a double-digit victory over a division opponent, as is the case here. Detroit head coach Dan Campbell elected to play his starters in last Sunday's win over the Vikings and paid the price to a certain extent with standout rookie TE Sam LaPorta suffering an injury. He has actually been able to get in limited practice this week and is expected to play but it remains to be seen how effective he can actually be. Regardless, I don't believe this is a favorable matchup for the Lions. I don't think there's anything more dangerous than an experienced team that catches fire late in the season and goes on the road in the Wild Card round of the playoffs. The pressure rests squarely on the Lions shoulders in their first home playoff game in three decades. Keep in mind, Detroit played another seemingly massive home game back on Thanksgiving Day against the Packers and was stunned 29-22 as a near-double-digit favorite. Few teams can match Detroit's personnel at the skill positions on offense but Los Angeles is one of them with the emergence of rookie WR Puka Nacua and RB Kyren Williams this season. Note that the underdog has gone 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
01-14-24 | Kings +5.5 v. Bucks | Top | 142-143 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over Milwaukee at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. The Kings got their current road trip off to a perfect 2-0 start before running into the 76ers in Philadelphia on Friday. The road won't get any easier with a stop in Milwaukee on deck on Sunday but I look for Sacramento to hang tough. This is undoubtedly a matchup the Kings have had circled on their calendar having lost an incredible 14 straight meetings in this series going back to 2016. There have been plenty of close games over that stretch and I certainly feel that the Kings have closed the talent gap somewhat in recent years. Note that the Kings enter this contest sporting a 10-8 road record (11-7 ATS) while the Bucks are 18-3 SU at home but a money-burning 8-13 ATS. Sacramento has quietly held three straight opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. Going back farther, the Kings have limited 15 of their last 19 foes to 44 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, Sacramento has hoisted up more than 90 field goal attempts in seven of its last eight contests. The Bucks have shown on interest or ability to slow down the opposition, yielding at least 90 field goal attempts in 16 of their last 18 contests. The Kings are a long-term 60-42 ATS when playing on the road and 34-26 ATS in their last 60 road games as an underdog. Meanwhile, the Bucks are just 37-41 ATS in their last 78 games following a home win and a long-term 80-103 ATS when coming off consecutive home victories. Take Sacramento (10*). | |||||||
01-14-24 | Washington v. UCLA +3.5 | 61-73 | Win | 100 | 22 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on UCLA plus the points over Washington at 7 pm et on Sunday. We'll fade Washington off its win and cover against Arizona State on Thursday. UCLA had a much different result on that same night as it dropped a 90-44 decision at Utah. The Bruins have been a pretty big disappointment to this point of the season and the turnaround needs to start now. The good news is, they've won eight straight meetings in this series. Note that Washington is just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games off a double-digit home win, as is the case here. UCLA is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 contests after losing three of its last four games ATS and 3-1 ATS in its last four games after giving up 80 points or more in its previous contest. Take UCLA (8*). | |||||||
01-13-24 | Pelicans v. Mavs -2.5 | 118-108 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas minus the points over New Orleans at 8:40 pm et on Saturday. While this isn't necessarily a 'throwaway game' for the Pelicans, it's as close to it as it gets. New Orleans is already off to a 2-1 start on its current five-game road trip, which wraps up with this two-game in three-night set in Dallas. The tough part here is that the Pelicans are coming off a double-digit loss in Denver last night - a high-scoring affair in which they expended plenty of energy trying to fight back all night long, to no avail. Often teams that play a back-to-back with the front half taking place in the high altitude of Denver will play the second half in Utah, also in high altitude (or vice-versa). That's obviously not the case here. The Mavericks had yesterday off following Thursday's 128-124 home win over the Knicks. Dallas has now won four of its last five games SU and ATS and has gone 8-3 ATS since December 23rd. Luka Doncic remains sidelined but Kyrie Irving appears to be relishing the role of top dog again, fresh off scoring 33 or more points in three straight games. Note that New Orleans is 14-28 ATS in its last 42 road games after winning four or five of its last six games ATS, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Dallas is 36-22 ATS in its last 58 contests when seeking revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent. Take Dallas (8*). | |||||||
01-13-24 | California v. Oregon -8 | Top | 73-80 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 31 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Week. My selection is on Oregon minus the points over California at 8 pm et on Saturday. I can't help but think California is walking into a hornet's nest in Eugene on Saturday. The Golden Bears trailed big early but staged a furious rally in the second half to upset Colorado two nights ago in Berkeley. Now they have to hit the road to face a red hot Oregon squad that has won five straight and eight of its last nine games, going 7-2 ATS over that stretch. The Ducks have been idle since last Saturday's five-point win as an underdog at Washington State. Cal has been thriving offensively but here it runs into an Oregon squad that has held seven of its last eight opponents to 56 field goal attempts or less. Note that Cal is just 3-5 ATS in its last eight games following consecutive wins. Meanwhile, Oregon is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games after allowing 80 points or more in its previous contest, as is the case here. Take Oregon (10*). | |||||||
01-13-24 | Avalanche v. Maple Leafs OVER 6.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 29 h 46 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. While I do think the Maple Leafs have the offense to keep pace with the Avalanche, I question whether their defense and goaltending can hang in this matchup. The Leafs let the Islanders off the hook two nights ago on Long Island and that's been a common theme this season. Toronto returns home on Saturday but has given up an average of 3.5 goals per game at Scotiabank Arena. The good news is, the Leafs have averaged 3.9 goals per contest at home. Colorado's offense has lagged at times this season, particularly on the road where it averages only 3.0 goals per game. It should be feeling pretty good about itself here, however, noting that it has scored 40 goals over its last 10 games. Note that the 'over' is 8-2-1 in the last 11 meetings in this series. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
01-13-24 | Browns v. Texans OVER 44.5 | Top | 14-45 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
Wild Card Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Houston at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. I think the Browns can score at will in this game as they look to continue their upward trajectory with veteran QB Joe Flacco under center. Cleveland was a run-first team earlier in the season, rushing the ball more than 30 times in eight of its first nine games. It was a much different story down the stretch, however, as the Browns ran the football at least 30 times just once in their final eight contests. They'll undoubtedly deploy a similar strategy here as the Texans simply don't have the personnel in place to stop the pass. On the flip side, I don't think we can rule out the Texans staying competitive in this game. When they faced the Browns on Christmas Eve they scored 22 points despite accomplishing very little with Case Keenum and Davis Mills running the offense. The Browns defense simply hasn't travelled well this season, allowing at least 22 points in all eight road games with the 'over' cashing at a perfect 8-0 clip. Note that the 'over' is 29-15 in the Texans last 44 home games following consecutive 'under' results, as is the case here. I also strongly believe this game has the potential for 'splash' plays from the two defenses, potentially leading to points on the board. Flacco has admittedly been turnover-prone. C.J. Stroud, while the front-runner for offensive rookie of the year, will be up against a ball-hawking Browns secondary that looks like it will have the services of CB Denzel Ward after he tweaked his knee at practice earlier this week. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
01-12-24 | Pelicans v. Nuggets UNDER 229.5 | 113-125 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and Denver at 9:10 pm et on Friday. Few are paying nearly enough attention but the Pelicans continue to dominate defensively having held an incredible nine straight opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals and 13 consecutive foes to 41 or less. Yes, the Pelicans have gone off offensively in their last two games, knocking down 50 and 54 field goals in wins over the Kings and Warriors but they'll face a more difficult challenge against the defending champion Nuggets in Denver on Friday. The Nuggets will undoubtedly be in a foul mood after getting blasted by the Jazz in Utah two nights ago. The Jazz quite simply shot the lights out in that contest. Denver has still held 10 of its last 11 opponents to 90 or fewer field goal attempts. At home, the Nuggets have limited the opposition to an average of 41-of-88 shooting. Note that the 'under' is 40-25 in the Pelicans last 65 games off a double-digit victory. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 13-9 in the Nuggets last 22 contests following an upset loss by double-digits. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
01-12-24 | Manhattan v. Rider -10 | 58-71 | Win | 100 | 24 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Rider minus the points over Manhattan at 7 pm et on Friday. I'm not sure the average better realizes just how bad Manhattan is this season. The Jaspers rank 342nd out of 362 Division-I teams according to KenPom. Their offense ranks 351st. Rider is still trying to get loose following a tough start to the season that was largely fuelled by a difficult schedule (the Broncs have faced the 95th most difficult schedule in the nation according to KenPom). We saw positive strides from the Broncs last weekend as they took Quinnipiac down to the wire in a four-point road loss before outlasting Canisius in overtime back at home. Note that Manhattan is currently on a 1-5 ATS slide while the favorite has gone 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings in this series. Take Rider (8*). | |||||||
01-12-24 | Quinnipiac v. Marist UNDER 139.5 | Top | 66-55 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
MAAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Quinnipiac and Marist at 7 pm et on Friday. This game features a contrast in styles as Quinnipiac ranks 30th in the nation in adjusted tempo according to KenPom while Marist checks in 303rd in that same category. It won't be easy for the Bobcats to bait the Red Foxes into an up-and-down affair here, however, noting that Marist has hoisted up 60 or more field goal attempts just twice this season. Meanwhile, the Red Foxes have held the opposition to just 17, 21, 16 and 19 made field goals in their four home games this season. I do think Marist can control the tempo here as a short home favorite. Note that the Red Foxes are coming off three straight losses while Quinnipiac made the most of its two MAAC home games last weekend, going 2-0. While the Bobcats have proven rather vulnerable defensively this season, they should benefit from facing Marist here. The Red Foxes have knocked down more than 23 field goals just twice in their last seven contests. The 'under' is 16-10 in the Bobcats last 26 games following consecutive wins. The 'under' is also 9-3 in the Red Foxes last 12 contests following consecutive ATS defeats. Finally, the 'under' is 62-46 in Marist's last 108 games after giving up 80 points or more in its previous contest. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
01-11-24 | Bruins -127 v. Golden Knights | 1-2 | Loss | -127 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston over Vegas at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. Last night's 3-0 setback in Denver dropped Vegas to a miserable 12-17 over its last 29 games. Things won't get any easier on Thursday as it travels back home to face a Bruins squad that should be in a foul mood after dropping consecutive games to open their current western road swing. Boston had the benefit of being off yesterday and checks in 12-10 on the road this season, where it has allowed just 2.9 goals per game. Note that the B's are 27-12 in their last 39 games following a road loss. Better still, they're 7-2 in their last nine contests following consecutive road defeats and a red hot 10-1 in their last 11 games after giving up three goals or more in three straight games, as is the case here. Vegas is just 8-15 in its last 23 games when playing on no rest. The Knights are also just 11-14 in their last 25 contests after a road loss by two goals or more. Take Boston (8*). | |||||||
01-11-24 | Suns v. Lakers UNDER 237 | 127-109 | Win | 100 | 26 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Thursday. The Lakers may have scored 132 points in Tuesday's controversial win over the Raptors but they actually got off just 81 field goal attempts in that contest, continuing a recent trend. Los Angeles has hoisted up 85 or fewer field goal attempts in five straight games. The 44 field goals they knocked down on Tuesday marked a high point over their last six contests. The Suns have had two full days to digest an ugly defensive showing in a 138-111 loss to the Clippers on Monday. They've still limited four of their last five opponents to 85 or fewer field goal attempts. Given the pieces they have in place you would think that Phoenix would be lighting up the scoreboard this season but that simply hasn't been the case. They enter this game having connected on 44 or fewer field goals in five of their last six contests. On the road this season they're averaging only 40 made field goals per game while the Lakers are giving up an average of just 41 at home. Note that the 'under' is 31-26 in Phoenix's last 57 games following consecutive 'over' results, as is the case here. The 'under' is also 14-7 in its last 21 contests after losing its previous game by 15 points or more. Meanwhile, the 'under' is a long-term 45-24 in the Lakers last 69 home games with a total set at 230 points or higher. The 'under' is also 33-26 in their last 59 contests after scoring 130 points or more in their previous game. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
01-11-24 | Canucks v. Penguins -123 | 4-3 | Loss | -123 | 13 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh over Vancouver at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Canucks have made the most of their current road trip, reeling off three straight wins following a loss in St. Louis to kick it off. I don't like the spot for Vancouver here, however, as it plays its sixth game in the last 10 nights, in six different cities no less. Note that the Canucks are just 5-8 in their last 13 games following consecutive road wins and 0-3 in their last three contests after scoring five goals or more in three consecutive games, as is the case here. The Penguins are in an excellent positive momentum spot here off Monday's 4-1 win in Philadelphia. They're 29-21 in their last 50 games following a road victory and 28-15 in their last 43 contests after allowing one goal or less in their previous game. Finally, we'll note that the home team has gone 5-1 in the last six meetings in this series. Take Pittsburgh (8*). | |||||||
01-11-24 | Michigan v. Maryland -5.5 | Top | 57-64 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
Big Ten Game of the Month. My selection is on Maryland minus the points over Michigan at 7 pm et on Thursday. Both of these Big Ten squads enter on a downturn with the Wolverines having dropped four in a row SU and five straight games ATS and the Terrapins fresh off three straight losses, including two in a row ATS. I think it's Maryland that's much better-positioned to rebound on Thursday. The Wolverines matador-like defense just isn't cutting it. Michigan has allowed a boatload of scoring opportunities on a seemingly every game basis and its opposition has made the most of those opportunities, knocking down 26 or more field goals in eight straight games. The Terps offense went cold over the last couple of games but that was to be expected against the likes of Purdue and Minnesota. Here, taking a step down in class should benefit the Terps. Maryland does possess a defense as well, having held five straight opponents to fewer than 26 made field goals and an impressive eight straight foes to 26 or less. The home team has owned this series lately, taking five straight meetings both SU and ATS. Take Maryland (10*). | |||||||
01-10-24 | Colorado -5 v. California | 78-82 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado minus the points over California at 11 pm et on Wednesday. Colorado is coming off a disappointing trip through Arizona last weekend as it dropped games against the Wildcats and Sun Devils. I expect it to bounce back here, however, as it heads to Berkeley to take on the Bears who are in a prime letdown spot off an upset win over rival UCLA last Saturday. That win over the Bruins had more to do with UCLA having an off night than anything else. The Bruins couldn't get anything going, knocking down just 21-of-49 field goal attempts in the loss. The Bears offense remained sluggish and ranks 113th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom. In stark contrast, Colorado sits 33rd in the country in that department. The Buffaloes are a perfect 3-0 ATS in their last three games after giving up 75 points or more in consecutive games, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Cal is just 7-18 ATS in its last 25 lined home games. Take Colorado (8*). | |||||||
01-10-24 | Golden Knights v. Avalanche UNDER 6.5 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Vegas and Colorado at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. Vegas skated to a stunning 7-0 home win over Colorado in the first meeting between these two teams this season. I expect a game played much closer to the vest in Wednesday's rematch. Note that you would have to go back six meetings here in Colorado to find the last time a game went 'over' the total. The Avalanche are coming off a string of high-scoring games but we'll note that the 'under' is 7-1 in their last eight home games after scoring three goals or more in five consecutive games, as is the case here. The 'under' is also 13-4 in the Avs last 17 contests after allowing three goals or more in four straight games. The Golden Knights have posted an all-time 110-124 o/u mark when coming off a game that totalled seven goals or more, which is the situation here. The 'under' is also 42-34 all-time with the Knights off a home win by three goals or more. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
01-10-24 | Pelicans v. Warriors UNDER 233.5 | Top | 141-105 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and Golden State at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Warriors were embarrassed on their home floor against the Raptors on Sunday, allowing 133 points as they suffered their fifth loss in their last seven games. I expect them to tighten the screws against a familiar opponent on Wednesday as they host the red hot Pelicans. Note that Golden State has held New Orleans to 42 or fewer made field goals in seven of eight meetings going back to the start of the 21-22 season. The Pelicans are quietly as locked-in as it gets defensively right now. They've allowed 42 or fewer made field goals in an incredible 14 straight games. They've also held seven of their last 10 opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. The Warriors have been a mixed bag offensively and check in averaging just 41-of-90 shooting at home this season. While the 'over' did cash in the first meeting between these two teams this season, we haven't seen consecutive matchups go 'over' the total since the 2018-19 season. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
01-10-24 | 76ers +2.5 v. Hawks | 132-139 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Atlanta at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. The 76ers had a brutal back-to-back set at home against New York and Utah last Friday and Saturday. The absence of Joel Embiid has certainly hurt their cause but this is still a team that has enough talent to hang, even without their big man. They got caught trying to do too much on Saturday against the Jazz, hoisting up an uncharacteristic 104 field goal attempts in the 120-109 loss. I think we'll see a much more composed 76ers squad on Wednesday as they come off a much-needed three-day break. They'll certainly get their opportunities against a Hawks team that has allowed more than 90 field goal attempts in four straight and six of their last seven games. Of their last 11 opponents, nine have knocked down at least 43 field goals. Only three of Philadelphia's last 15 foes have made good on 43 or more field goals. The Hawks can score with the best of them but despite hoisting up more than 90 field goal attempts in five straight games, they've connected on 42 or fewer field goals in three of those contests. Note that the 76ers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following consecutive upset losses, as is the case here. They're also 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a double-digit home loss. The Hawks on the other hand are just 33-41 ATS in their last 74 games as a home favorite and 18-26 ATS in their last 44 contests when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent, which is the situation here. Take Philadelphia (8*). | |||||||
01-09-24 | Raptors v. Lakers OVER 233.5 | Top | 131-132 | Win | 100 | 16 h 54 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Toronto and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Tuesday. While few are paying much attention, the Raptors have gone on an offensive tear lately, knocking down 44 or more field goals in six of their last eight games with the 'over' cashing at a 6-2 clip over that stretch. The Lakers were fortunate to catch the Clippers on an off shooting night on Sunday as they allowed 91 field goal attempts but the Clips could only make good on 36 of them. While the Lakers have generally been able to slow down the opposition this season, we've seen a bit of a sputter lately as two of their last three foes have hoisted up more than 90 field goal attempts. The Raptors don't always play fast but they're definitely making the most of their scoring opportunities right now and I like the rhythm they're in having played every second night going back to December 30th. On the flip side, you would have to go back 11 games to find the last time Toronto held an opponent to fewer than 40 made field goals. Of their last 10 opponents, seven have knocked down at least 43 field goals. Their last two foes have reached the 100 mark in terms of field goal attempts. For the Lakers, this will be their fourth straight home game and I expect them to come out with plenty of energy following an off day on Monday. While Sunday's game against the Clippers did stay 'under' the total, the Lakers haven't produced consecutive 'under' results since a four-game streak from December 2nd to 9th. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
01-09-24 | Canucks v. Islanders -130 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -130 | 24 h 35 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on New York over Vancouver at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. You have to figure the Islanders were pleased seeing the Canucks pour it on early against the Rangers in Manhattan last night. It's never a bad thing to see your upcoming opponent punch themselves tired in the front half of a back-to-back set. The Isles are fresh off a couple of days off after a disappointing 1-3 road trip. Note that New York has gone 11-2 in its last 13 home contests when coming off a road trip lasting two or more games. The Isles are also 16-8 in their last 24 games after losing three of their last four contests. The Canucks have taken each of the last two meetings between these two teams, including a 4-3 victory on home ice back in mid-November. That's notable as Vancouver hasn't won three straight matchups with New York since back in 2015-16. Take New York (10*). | |||||||
01-09-24 | Houston v. Iowa State UNDER 131.5 | Top | 53-57 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
Big 12 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Iowa State at 7 pm et on Tuesday. Iowa State has been able to force the issue offensively this season to generally positive results. It ranks 88th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. The Cyclones figure to face a stiff challenge here, however, as they host undefeated Houston. The Cougars sit 325th in the nation in adjusted tempo and no team ranks higher in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency. In fact, only one of Houston's 14 opponents this season has managed to knock down 20 or more field goals. As I mentioned, Iowa State has shown out offensively at times but when stepping up in class (in games where the pointspread has closed at six points or less) it has been held to 62 points against Virginia Tech, 69 points against Texas A&M and most recently 63 points against Oklahoma this past Saturday. For Houston, this will be just its second true road game this season. In the Cougars lone previous road tilt they scored just 66 points in a six-point victory at Xavier. Note that the 'under' is 22-12 in the Cougars last 34 games following a double-digit home win, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' has gone 22-13 in Iowa State's last 35 contests following an ATS loss and 14-8 in its last 22 games after a loss against an conference opponent. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
01-08-24 | Suns +6.5 v. Clippers | 111-138 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Monday. The Suns dropped a 121-115 home decision against the Grizzlies last night as they essentially folded the tent in the fourth quarter and let Memphis off the hook. That doesn't change the fact that Phoenix has been playing better lately, particularly from an offensive standpoint. Note that the Suns have knocked down 44 or more field goals in five of their last seven games. They'll head to Los Angeles on Monday to face a Clippers squad that is fresh off a 106-103 loss to the Lakers last night. While Los Angeles has been stacking wins, you can almost sense a downturn coming. The Clippers offense has stagnated somewhat, making good on 42 or fewer field goals in five of their last seven contests. Of course, there was a 131-point outburst against these same Suns in Phoenix last week but I think the Clips will be hard-pressed to repeat that performance in this back-to-back spot. Note that the road team has gone 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings in this series. I noted that Phoenix's offense has been trending up and you could argue it has played better defensive basketball on the road compared to at home this season, allowing just a shade under 112 points per game which is around two points per game fewer than its overall season average. Take Phoenix (8*). | |||||||
01-08-24 | Bruins v. Avalanche -125 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado over Boston at 9:05 pm et on Monday. These two teams had very different results in their respective games on Saturday. Colorado dropped an ugly 8-4 decision in afternoon action at home against Florida while Boston skated past Tampa Bay by a 7-3 score. The Avalanche are still an impressive 16-5 on home ice this season and check in 25-12 in their last 37 games after allowing five goals or more in their previous contest. Colorado has also gone 6-2 in its last eight games after a home loss by three goals or more. This is undoubtedly a game the Avs had circled on their calendar at the outset of the season after the Bruins defeated them 5-1 and 4-0 in a pair of matchups last season. Note that the home team has gone 7-2 in the last nine meetings in this series. While the Avs have the benefit of staying home following Saturday's contest, the Bruins will have travelled across the country. Boston also has to catch a plane to Arizona after tonight's contest as it plays against the Coyotes tomorrow night. Meanwhile, the Avs can empty the tank tonight as they'll have a day off tomorrow before hosting Vegas on Wednesday to wrap up their three-game homestand. Take Colorado (8*). | |||||||
01-08-24 | Washington +5 v. Michigan | 13-34 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington plus the points over Michigan at 7:30 pm et on Monday. It shouldn't be difficult at all for the Huskies to play the 'nobody believes in us' card in Monday's National Championship showdown against Michigan. You'd be hard-pressed to find many willing to pick Washington to win this game outright, that's for sure. I simply feel it's going to be tough for Michigan to go from winning 'that' game against Alabama in last Monday's Rose Bowl, in overtime no less, to getting right back up for what many believe to be a lesser opponent in Washington. Just think about everything the Wolverines have been through this season. Yes, winning a national title would represent a storybook finish but things don't always go as planned. Washington is no pushover. This is a team that seems to have gotten stronger with each passing game, first upsetting Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship Game and then defeating Texas in a thriller in the Sugar Bowl last Monday. Note that Washington is 7-4 ATS in its last 11 games as an underdog. Michigan is just 10-13 ATS in its last 23 contests after three straight ATS victories as a favorite. The Wolverines are also a miserable 1-5 ATS in their last six neutral site games when priced as a favorite of between 3.5 and 7 points, as is the case here. Take Washington (8*). | |||||||
01-08-24 | Celtics v. Pacers +4 | 131-133 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Indiana plus the points over Boston at 7:10 pm et on Monday. The Celtics had little trouble disposing of the Pacers on this floor two nights ago. I expect a different story to unfold in Monday's rematch. Indiana was in a difficult spot on Saturday as it poured in 150 points in a rout of the Hawks the night previous, using up much of what it had in the tank. Boston on the other hand shifted into cruise control relatively early in a victory over the Jazz one night earlier. It's also worth noting that Saturday's affair was a revenge spot for the C's after they dropped a 122-112 decision in Indiana in early December. The shoe is on the other foot here. Note that the Pacers are 31-22 ATS in their last 53 games when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent, as is the case here. Indiana is also 22-15 ATS in its last 37 contests as a home underdog six points or less. The Celtics on the other hand are a miserable 11-22 ATS in their last 33 games following consecutive ATS wins as favorites. They're also just 13-18 ATS in their last 31 contests after holding their last two opponents to 105 points or less, which is the situation here. Take Indiana (8*). | |||||||
01-07-24 | Clippers v. Lakers +5 | 103-106 | Win | 100 | 14 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the Lakers plus the points over the Clippers at 9:40 pm et on Sunday. These two teams appear headed in opposite directions right now with the Clippers having won five games in a row SU and four straight ATS while the Lakers have dropped four straight contests including three in a row ATS. We'll grab all the points we can get with the underdog Lakers on Sunday, however, as I see this as a favorable spot. The Lakers have been home since the turn of the New Year but have nothing to show for it, dropping back-to-back games against the Heat and Grizzlies at Crypto.com Arena. It's been quite a slide since winning the inaugural in-season tournament but there is an opportunity here to start turning things around as this is only the third game of a five-game homestand. The Clippers are probably feeling pretty good about themselves after opening their current road trip with wins in Phoenix and New Orleans. This is where things get a little tricky as they'll play against the Lakers tonight before hosting the Suns tomorrow. Note that the Clippers are a long-term 61-98 ATS when coming off consecutive ATS wins as a favorite, as is the case here. They're also 39-69 ATS when coming off four or more consecutive ATS victories. Meanwhile, the Lakers are 32-25 ATS in their last 57 games following a double-digit loss and 61-47 ATS in their last 108 contests following an ATS defeat. Take the Lakers (8*). | |||||||
01-07-24 | Bills -2.5 v. Dolphins | 21-14 | Win | 100 | 22 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over Miami at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. The Bills have been playing playoff football for the last month-plus as they desperately try to work their way into the postseason - a destination that was thought to be a sure thing earlier in the season. The Dolphins have already clinched a playoff spot but would certainly like to avoid tumbling down the AFC pecking order. Of course, their main focus right now is probably on avoiding any more injuries. I simply see two teams heading in opposite directions at this point. The Bills haven't been covering spreads but they haven't needed to to win games as double-digit favorites over the last two weeks. Note that those two ATS defeats do set up Buffalo well as it has gone a long-term 62-38 ATS following consecutive ATS losses. While the Dolphins may appear to be in a solid bounce-back spot off last week's drubbing in Baltimore, history says otherwise. Miami is just 13-23 ATS in its last 36 games following a loss by 21 points or more. Take Buffalo (8*). | |||||||
01-07-24 | Seahawks -3 v. Cardinals | Top | 21-20 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 8 m | Show |
NFC West Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle minus the points over Arizona at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. The Seahawks are of course in a must-win situation in Arizona on Sunday and while I'll rarely look to back teams on that premise alone, I do like the way this spot sets up for Seattle (which needs a victory and some help to get into the playoffs). First we'll note that Seattle has owned this series recently, going 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. The road team is also a long-term 14-6-1 ATS in the last 21 matchups between these two teams. The Cardinals are in a big letdown spot here after upsetting the Eagles in Philadelphia last Sunday. Few expected them to be remotely competitive in that game. Of course, what worked last week may not work this week. The Cardinals ran wild on the Eagles. While the Seahawks haven't exactly played stout run defense, they do get back one of their best run stoppers in LB Jordyn Brooks from an ankle injury this week. Seattle is a long-term 121-100 ATS when coming off a loss and 62-45 ATS after giving up 30 points or more in their last game. The Cards are 7-11 ATS when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent and 15-19 ATS in their last 34 games after scoring 35 points or more in their previous contest. Take Seattle (10*). | |||||||
01-07-24 | Canisius v. Rider OVER 147 | Top | 76-79 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Canisius and Rider at 2 pm et on Sunday. While a track meet between two struggling MAAC squads is probably the last thing on the mind of most bettors on a busy Sunday of sports action, I think we have an excellent spot to play the 'over' in this matchup. The Golden Griffins opposition has been stuffing the boxscore lately, knocking down 33, 31, 28 and 30 field goals in their last four games and Rider figures to take full advantage. The Broncs have lost three games in a row and are desperate for their first victory in conference play following another loss - by an 88-84 score - on the road against Quinnipiac on Friday. Like Canisius, Rider has been vulnerable defensively, allowing 28, 29, 27, 30 and 30 made field goals in its last five contests. Both teams are capable offensively. Rider knocked down 33 field goals in Friday's defeat while Canisius had an off shooting night but still got off a whopping 68 field goal attempts. The last time these two teams met last February they combined to score 159 points. Note that the 'over' is 17-6 in Rider's last 23 home games following three straight losses. The 'over' is also a long-term 116-84 with Canisius playing in a road underdog role. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
01-07-24 | Vikings v. Lions OVER 46 | Top | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 15 h 3 m | Show |
NFC North Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Vikings defense held up better than most expected over the course of the season with Brian Flores' blitz-happy packages stemming the tide for much of the campaign. That hasn't been the case over the last three games, however. It seems that the book may be out on this incarnation of the Purple People Eaters. Minnesota has been smacked for 27, 30 and 33 points over its last three contests. The Vikes three opponents over that stretch - Cincinnati, Detroit and Green Bay - posted respective passing lines of 29-42-298, 30-40-246 and 25-34-193. According to head coach Dan Campbell, the Lions will play their starters on Sunday, despite being locked into the third spot in the NFC. Regardless who takes the field, I expect them to find success against the Vikes sagging defense. On the flip side, Minnesota will be going for it with a slim chance of reaching the postseason despite its embarrassing home loss against the Packers in primetime last Sunday. Teams haven't even bothered running against the Lions lately and the Vikings don't figure to stray from that strategy (they've run the football just 27 times over their last two games). More passing equates to more clock stoppages. I don't envision Minnesota possessing the football for long stretches on Sunday but I do think it can punch through with some big plays against this struggling Lions secondary. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
01-06-24 | California v. UCLA -6 | 66-57 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on UCLA minus the points over California at 10 pm et on Saturday. UCLA is reeling right now having lost two straight and six of its last seven games overall. A home date against California should be just what it needs to right the ship, however. Note that the Bruins have taken 11 straight meetings against the Bears with eight of those wins coming by double-digit margins. Cal is off to an 0-3 start in Pac-12 play and has dropped the cash in five straight games overall. The Bears sit a middling 154th in KenPom's national rankings - 63 spots south of UCLA. The Bruins actually check in having held four straight opponents to 22 or fewer made field goals. I believe their offensive woes can be fixed and it's worth noting that Cal has allowed opponents to stuff boxscores, allowing four of its last six foes to knock down more than 30 field goals. The Bears are just 9-12 ATS in their last 21 games following three straight losses against conference opponents. Meanwhile, UCLA is 22-16 ATS in its last 38 contests after being held to 55 points or less. Take UCLA (8*). | |||||||
01-06-24 | Lightning v. Bruins -155 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 22 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston over Tampa Bay at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. The Bruins haven't been the same nearly unbeatable force at home this season that they were in 22-23 but they're still 11-6 at TD Garden and I expect them to bounce back from Thursday's 6-5 loss right here against the Penguins. Boston didn't execute much well in that defeat at the hands of Pittsburgh. Perhaps a letdown was to be expected as it was returning home off a perfect 2-0 road trip and four straight victories overall. Nevertheless, this is a game the Bruins will undoubtedly get up for after they dropped a 5-4 decision in Tampa on November 20th. The Bruins are an incredible 23-5 in their last 28 home games when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent. Note that despite Thursday's poor defensive showing, the B's are still giving up just 2.5 goals per game on home ice this season. That's in stark contrast to the Lightning's road ledger as they've given up a whopping 3.9 goals per contest in enemy territory. Tampa Bay is coming off a 4-1 victory in Minnesota on Thursday but hasn't won consecutive games since recording three wins in a row from December 19th to 23rd. The Bolts are just 6-12 when coming off a win this season. Take Boston (8*). | |||||||
01-06-24 | Oregon State v. Washington -12.5 | Top | 72-79 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 53 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Year. My selection is on Washington minus the points over Oregon State at 6 pm et on Saturday. The Huskies are surprisingly at the bottom of the Pac-12 standings sporting an 0-3 record in early conference action. Keep in mind, this is a team that upset Gonzaga earlier this season and ranks just outside the top-50 in the country according to KenPom. Not only that but the Huskies are battle-tested having faced the 17th most difficult schedule in the country so far this season (also according to KenPom). They let Oregon off the hook two nights ago, jumping out in front by a wide margin early before settling for a halftime lead but then folding in the final 20 minutes. Of course, Oregon is no pushover. Here, Washington should benefit from facing an Oregon State squad that figures to eventually reside near the bottom of the Pac-12 standings. The Beavers currently rank 159th in KenPom's national rankings and have only faced the 146th toughest slate of opponents. The home team has gone 5-1 SU and ATS in the last six meetings in this series. Note that Oregon State is just 9-17 ATS in its last 26 games following an ATS victory, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Washington is an exceptional 18-5 ATS in its last 23 contests following a loss against a conference foe. Take Washington (10*). | |||||||
01-06-24 | Steelers v. Ravens UNDER 34.5 | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
AFC North Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Baltimore at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. This is obviously a must-win game for the Steelers and they'll also need help in the form of a Dolphins win over the Bills tomorrow night to clinch a playoff spot. While Baltimore will be resting its starters, I'm not convinced it will simply roll over in this divisional revenge game after dropping a 17-10 decision in Pittsburgh earlier this season. While the Ravens won't play the majority of their starters you can be sure they would still like nothing more than to end the Steelers season here. I do think it's in both teams best interest to effectively shorten this game. For the Steelers, they'll be looking to take the crowd out of the game and make this one as boring as possible in my opinion. The last thing they want to do is awaken the sleeping giant in this case. QB Mason Rudolph has been ultra-efficient through his first two starts but regardless who he is facing on the Ravens defense on Saturday, they'll be scheming up to stop him. Note that Baltimore has forced a whopping 10 turnovers over its last three games. For the Ravens, they simply want to get through this game unscathed. Backup QB Lamar Huntley has only appeared in mop-up duty so far this season. Last year, the final scores in his five games of extended action totalled just 19, 30, 16, 26 and 29 points. While the 'over' has cashed in each of Pittsburgh's last four games, the 'under' is a long-term 149-114 when it plays away from home. The 'under' is also 12-4 in the Steelers last 16 games following a victory. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 42-22 in the Ravens last 66 contests after scoring 25 or more points in consecutive games, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
01-05-24 | Heat v. Suns UNDER 229.5 | 97-113 | Win | 100 | 14 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Phoenix at 9:10 pm et on Friday. The Heat are coming off a lopsided win in upset fashion over the Lakers two nights ago. In that contest, they scored 100 or more points for the 12th straight game, extending their season long streak. Note that their previous longest such streak lasted just nine games. Of course, in today's NBA perhaps that's not such an accomplishment but for a team like the Heat, which I consider to be rather limited offensively, not to mention one that doesn't play at an incredibly fast pace, it's worth noting. The Suns do figure to test the Heat offense here, noting that Phoenix has held five straight and 13 of its last 15 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. Also of note, the Suns have limited five of their last eight opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. On the flip side, most expected the Suns to be one of the league's most explosive offensive teams with the additions of Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal. Both have dealt with injuries, however, and have been in and out of the lineup. As a result, the Suns have been lukewarm offensively. They've knocked down 42 or fewer field goals in back-to-back and 16 of their last 20 games overall. In fact, Phoenix has had a tough enough time getting shots off let alone making good on them, hoisting up 82 or fewer field goal attempts in four of its last five contests. Note that the 'under' is 7-3 in the Heat's last 10 games following a road win and 9-5 in their last 14 contests after an ATS victory. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 8-4 in the Suns last 12 games after giving up 130 or more points in their previous contest, as is the case here. The 'under' is also 42-34 in Phoenix's last 76 games following a loss. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
01-05-24 | Niagara -1 v. Manhattan | Top | 81-67 | Win | 100 | 23 h 28 m | Show |
MAAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Niagara minus the points over Manhattan at 7 pm et on Friday. The Purple Eagles are off to an 0-2 start in MAAC play but they draw a favorable matchup on the road against Manhattan on Friday. Note that Niagara is coming off an upset win at Buffalo last time out. It should be able to take advantage of a Jaspers squad that has seen the opposition 'fill it up' this season and particularly of late. Manhattan has given up 36, 34, 31, 25, 28, 29 and 26 made field goals over its last seven games. Even in the game where it allowed just 25 made field goals it still suffered a double-digit loss on the road against MAAC foe Marist. Niagara is 21-18 ATS in its last 39 road games as a favorite of three points or less, as is the case here at the time of writing. Meanwhile, Manhattan is just 12-15 ATS in its last 27 lined home contests. Take Niagara (10*). | |||||||
01-04-24 | Oregon State v. Washington State -11 | 58-65 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington State minus the points over Oregon State at 11 pm et on Thursday. This is a straightforward fade of Oregon State after it stunned USC by a score of 86-70 last Saturday. Meanwhile, Washington State should come out on fire after dropping both road tilts in Pac-12 play last weekend, at Utah and Colorado. That was certainly a tough two-game road trip but the Cougars would have liked to have at least stolen one. Note that Washington State still ranks 98 spots north of Oregon State according to KenPom this season, with both teams facing almost an identical level of opposition (in terms of strength of schedule). Note that Oregon State has gone 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following a double-digit victory. Take Washington State (8*). | |||||||
01-04-24 | Oregon v. Washington -3.5 | 76-74 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington minus the points over Oregon at 9 pm et on Thursday. The Huskies will look to flip the script on the Ducks on Thursday after getting off to an 0-2 start in Pac-12 play with consecutive tight losses against two tough teams in Colorado and Utah, on the road no less, last weekend. Oregon outlasted USC and UCLA in a pair of tightly-contested matchups of its own last weekend to jump out to a perfect 2-0 start in conference play. Note that Washington still ranks five spots clear of Oregon in KenPom's national rankings. The Huskies are battle-tested to be sure having faced the 16th toughest schedule in the country so far this season. While the Ducks do have some quality wins on their resume, they've only gone up against the 110th most difficult slate of opponents. Take Washington (8*). | |||||||
01-04-24 | Sabres -129 v. Canadiens | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Buffalo over Montreal at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Sabres have had plenty of time to stew over Sunday's 5-1 defeat at the hands of the Senators in Ottawa. This would have already been a game Buffalo had circled on its calendar after dropping both previous meetings, at home no less, in this series this season. The Canadiens just played in Dallas two nights ago, wrapping up a long seven-game road stretch that started on December 18th (they did return home for a brief holiday break). While the Sabres are by no means road warriors, they haven managed to go 10-7 in their last 17 road games against Atlantic Division opponents. They're also an impressive 23-11 in their last 34 games when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent. Meanwhile, the Canadiens are a miserable 20-46 in their last 66 games following a win, as is the case here after Tuesday's upset victory in Dallas. Note that the road team has won five straight and six of the last seven meetings in this series. Take Buffalo (10*). | |||||||
01-03-24 | Stanford v. UCLA -3.5 | 59-53 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on UCLA minus the points over Stanford at 9 pm et on Wednesday. UCLA returns home following an unsurprising 1-1 (2-0 ATS) trip through Oregon last weekend. Meanwhile, Stanford is in a prime letdown spot following a stunning blowout victory over Arizona last time out. The win actually snapped a two-game slide for the Cardinal, including a home loss against Arizona State in Pac-12 play. While Stanford's middling 6-6 start to the campaign is somewhat expected, UCLA can't feel good about its 6-7 mark - even if it did play well last weekend in Oregon. Of note, the Bruins have faced the 79th most difficult schedule in the country so far this season (according to KenPom) while Stanford has gone against the 107th toughest slate of opponents. I expect UCLA to use this as a springboard game before hosting another winnable game against Cal on Saturday. Take UCLA (8*). | |||||||
01-03-24 | Northern Iowa +2.5 v. Missouri State | 64-62 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Northern Iowa plus the points over Missouri State at 9 pm et on Wednesday. The Panthers have been working their way toward the return of conference play since dropping their first two Missouri Valley Conference matchups back in late November-early December. Since suffering an outright loss as a favorite at Evansville on December 2nd Northern Iowa has gone 4-1 SU and ATS. I don't expect any sort of letdown here, however. It's a different story for Missouri State, which is off to an impressive start to the campaign and most recently upset perennial NCAA Tournament team St. Mary's (CA), on the road no less, just before Christmas. Note that the road team has gone 6-3 ATS in the last nine meetings in this particular series, including a 69-66 Panthers victory on this floor last February. Northern Iowa checks in a long-term 73-47 ATS when playing on the road off consecutive ATS victories and 36-15 ATS in its last 51 road contests following back-to-back wins by double-digits, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Missouri State is just 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games after winning two of its last three contests. Take Northern Iowa (8*). | |||||||
01-03-24 | Pelicans v. Wolves UNDER 223.5 | Top | 117-106 | Win | 100 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. This will be the fourth meeting already this season between these two teams and we're inexplicably working with the highest total of the bunch. It is worth noting the 'over' has cashed in all three previous matchups this season. I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday. The Timberwolves were already one of the slowest paced teams in the league this season but they've taken it to another level lately, hoisting up an unheard of (by today's NBA standards) 76 field goal attempts or fewer in each of their last four games. They've also held four of their last five opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. The Pelicans have gotten off 88 or fewer field goal attempts in six of their last seven games. On the flip side they've held the opposition to just 35, 39, 36, 39 and 35 made field goals over their last five contests. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 45-28 with the Pelicans checking in as a road underdog. Meanwhile, the 'under' has gone 35-21 in the Timberwolves last 56 home games with the total set at 220 points or higher. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
01-03-24 | Devils -156 v. Capitals | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 24 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Jersey over Washington at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. The spot doesn't get much better for the Devils as they look to bounce back from a 5-2 drubbing at the hands of the Bruins in Boston this past Saturday. That loss snapped a three-game winning streak as New Jersey has certainly turned things around following a slow start to the campaign. The Devils check in 11-6 over their last 17 contests. Washington entered last night's game in Pittsburgh riding a four-game losing streak having scored a grand total of just five goals over that stretch. This is undoubtedly a game the Devils have had circled after dropping the first two meetings in this series this season (both on home ice). Note that the road team has gone 9-2 in the last 11 matchups between these two teams. Take New Jersey (8*). | |||||||
01-02-24 | Islanders v. Avalanche -159 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado over New York at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. You have to figure Islanders head coach Lane Lambert's days behind the bench are once again numbered as New York has dropped five of its last eight games following a brief surge. Things won't get any easier as the Isles continue their road trip with a top in Denver on Tuesday. The Avalanche are 7-3 over their last 10 games and check in 15-4 on home ice this season. Speaking of home ice, the home team has dominated this particular series, going 14-3 in the last 17 meetings. The Avs did manage to skate to a 7-4 win on Long Island earlier this season but that's been the exception rather than the rule. Here, we'll note that New York is a miserable 1-10 in its last 11 road contests after scoring one goal or less in its previous game. Meanwhile, the Avs are 26-12 in their last 38 games after allowing two goals or less in consecutive games, as is the case here. Take Colorado (8*). | |||||||
01-02-24 | Celtics v. Thunder +3 | Top | 123-127 | Win | 100 | 24 h 2 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Boston at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. It seems as though the Thunder still aren't being treated like an elite team in the betting marketplace. Here, they're installed as a home underdog against the Celtics, despite playing some of their best basketball of the season - a red hot 7-1 SU and ATS over their last eight games. While Oklahoma City is gaining a reputation for being an outstanding offensive team, and for good reason, I've been even more impressed by its defensive play. Note that the Thunder have allowed just three of their last seven opponents to knock down 40+ field goals. In stark contrast, the Celtics have allowed 40+ made field goals in seven straight and 13 of their last 14 contests. Both teams come in following an off day on Monday. The difference I see here is that Boston will be playing in its sixth different city since December 19th while Oklahoma City has only had to leave home for a single game (in Denver) over that same period. Finally, we'll note that the Celtics are a long-term 95-126 ATS when coming off a double-digit road win, as is the case here. Take Oklahoma City (10*). | |||||||
01-01-24 | Mavs v. Jazz +3.5 | 90-127 | Win | 100 | 24 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah plus the points over Dallas at 9:10 pm et on Monday. Sometimes you have to ride the streaks and right now the Jazz are on a heater having reeled off five straight ATS victories. They'll look to avoid a fourth straight defeat at the hands of the Mavericks on Monday, noting that Dallas hasn't won four consecutive matchups in this season since 2013-15. The Mavs have been wildly inconsistent this season and I can't help but feel they're in for a letdown following Saturday's upset win over the Warriors in San Francisco. Note that they're just 18-35 ATS in their last 53 games following a win. Utah rallied for a 117-109 victory over the Heat at home on Saturday. The Jazz have gone an incredible 20-5 ATS in their last 25 games as a home underdog. They're also 8-1 ATS when playing at home seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent this season. Take Utah (8*). | |||||||
01-01-24 | Iowa +6 v. Tennessee | Top | 0-35 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 23 m | Show |
Bowl Game of the Year. My selection is on Iowa plus the points over Tennessee at 1 pm et on Monday. Talk about disrespect. Iowa enters the Citrus Bowl sporting a better record than Tennessee and is almost certainly bringing a more complete roster to the game than the Vols, yet here it is installed as a considerable underdog in a game that figures to be low-scoring (a situation that would certainly favor the Hawkeyes). Note that Iowa has reeled off four wins in its last five Bowl appearances (the lone loss came by just three points against Kentucky on this field two years ago to the day) and figures to be in a foul mood after a 26-0 drubbing at the hands of Michigan in the Big Ten Championship Game. The Hawkeyes won't have standout TE Erick All or QB Cade McNamara but we know they're not all about offense anyway. I'm confident the Iowa defense will be fired up about facing Vols highly-touted blue chip freshman QB recruit Nico Iamaleava rather than Joe Milton in this matchup. Note that Iowa is an incredible 66-33 ATS in its last 99 games after losing ATS in two of its last three contests, as is the case here. The Hawkeyes are also 9-5 ATS in their last 14 games a neutral field underdog of a touchdown or less. Meanwhile, Tennessee is a miserable 42-61 ATS in its last 103 games following a home victory by 17 points or more. Take Iowa (10*). | |||||||
12-31-23 | Magic +5.5 v. Suns | 107-112 | Win | 100 | 24 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Phoenix at 8:10 pm et on Sunday. The Suns have delivered back-to-back blowout wins over the fast-fading Rockets and Hornets. I look for them to come back to Earth as they host the Magic on Sunday. Orlando has shaken off a recent slump to deliver three wins in its last four games SU and four in its last five ATS. Note that the underdog has gone 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings in this series. The Magic are 52-38 ATS in their last 90 games as an underdog of between 3.5 and 9.5 points. Meanwhile, the Suns are 15-28 ATS in their last 43 games off a double-digit home victory. Take Orlando (8*). | |||||||
12-31-23 | Sabres v. Senators -150 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 22 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Ottawa over Buffalo at 6:05 pm et on Sunday. The Sabres needed everything they had in the tank to rally for a 3-2 overtime win over the Blue Jackets in a big revenge spot yesterday. Now the Senators are in a revenge spot of their own as they host Buffalo on New Year's Eve. The Sabres took the only previous matchup between these two teams this season by a 6-4 score in Ottawa back in October. The Senators saw their two-game winning streak come to an end at the hands of the red hot Devils on Friday. I like the bounce back spot here at home as they check in 14-12 in their last 26 games when seeking revenge for a home loss by two goals or more against an opponent. Take Ottawa (8*). | |||||||
12-31-23 | Bengals v. Chiefs -6.5 | Top | 17-25 | Win | 100 | 21 h 44 m | Show |
AFC Game of the Week. My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Cincinnati at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. This is a massive bounce-back spot for both of these teams with the Bengals coming off a stunning beatdown in Pittsburgh and the Chiefs fresh off a Christmas Day upset at home at the hands of the hated Raiders. The difference here is, Kansas City has the personnel in place to bounce back. Cincinnati, in its current form, does not. The Bengals defense has been a massive disappointment this season, unable to stop the run or the pass. Needless to say, despite its struggles against Las Vegas on Monday, Kansas City has the pieces in place to explode on offense. This is a smash spot for Chiefs TE Travis Kelce in particular. With all signs pointing to Chiefs RB Isaiah Pacheco being good to go as well, we'll give Kansas City the green light on offense on Sunday. It's a different story for the Bengals as they try to squeeze as much as they can out of QB Jake Browning. He has regressed considerably and has yet to truly riff with elite WR Ja'Marr Chase, who is expected back this week. Note that the Chiefs are a long-term 63-47 ATS in their last 110 games after losing two of their last three contests, as is the case here. The Bengals are just 8-14 ATS in their last 22 games following a loss by 21 points or more against a divisional opponent, which is the situation they're in on Sunday. Take Kansas City (10*). | |||||||
12-31-23 | Washington State v. Colorado OVER 144.5 | 67-74 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Washington State and Colorado at 2 pm et on Sunday. As long as Washington State keeps playing at the pace it has, the points will come. The Cougars have hoisted up 64 or more field goals attempts in five of their last nine games and figure to be afforded plenty of scoring opportunities against Colorado on Sunday as well. The Buffaloes allowed Washington to get off 65 field goal attempts in Friday's narrow victory - the Huskies simply had an off shooting night. In that vein, the Buffaloes didn't shoot particularly well either but should rebound here. Washington State has gotten progressively worse defensively, most recently allowing Utah to connect on 29-of-61 field goal opportunities in Friday's 80-58 loss. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
12-31-23 | Saints v. Bucs OVER 42 | Top | 23-13 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 7 m | Show |
NFC South Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Tampa Bay at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Saints have defied expectations from a totals perspective, at least on the road in recent weeks as the 'over' has gone 3-1 in their last four games played away from home. This is another promising spot for the Saints offense on the road against what has turned out to be a very beatable Buccaneers defense. Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay offense has thrived with Baker Mayfield at the helm. With the Saints missing CB Marshon Lattimore once again, it's all systems go for the Bucs offense again. Note that the 'under' has cashed in four straight meetings in this series. We haven't seen four straight 'unders' between these two teams previously since 2014-16. In their next matchup on that occasion they combined to score 55 points. The 'over' is a long-term 63-54 with the Saints coming off a road loss, as is the case here. The 'over' is also 46-40 in Tampa Bay's last 86 games following an upset win. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
12-31-23 | Cardinals v. Eagles -12 | 35-31 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Arizona at 1 pm et on Sunday. This is a blowup spot for the Eagles offense as they face a weary Cardinals defense that just got tagged for 72 points in its last two games against the 49ers and Bears. Philadelphia is in line to feast offensively after hanging 33 points on the board without breaking a sweat against the Giants on Christmas Day. The Eagles defense is another story entirely. Philadelphia has been vulnerable at times defensively this season but I don't believe Arizona has the personnel in place to take advantage. TE Trey McBride is a bright spot to be sure and he's likely to get his in this particular matchup. Can anyone else pick up the rest of the slack though? I'm not convinced. You would be hard-pressed to find a weaker wide receiving corps than that of the Cards. QB Kyler Murray has made a respectable return but he's going to be in tough against the Eagles pass rush here. This is a game where Philadelphia should be able to jump ahead, much like they did against New York, but successfully salt away the win and cover on this occasion. Take Philadelphia (8*). | |||||||
12-30-23 | USC -8 v. Oregon State | 70-86 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on USC minus the points over Oregon State at 10 pm et on Saturday. It took about a half but USC did eventually wake up and start playing Trojans basketball against Oregon on Thursday. Unfortunately for them it was too little too late as they dropped an 82-74 decision. I look for the Trojans to bounce back on Saturday as they stay in the Pacific Northwest to take on Oregon State. The Beavers got off to a strong start against UCLA on Thursday but couldn't keep it up in the second half, allowing a whopping 45 points against the Bruins in the game's final 20 minutes on their way to a 69-62 loss. The loss snapped a five-game winning streak for Oregon State. Keep in mind, the Beavers hadn't really played all that tough of a schedule prior to the start of Pac-12 play, falling by margin in their only step-up games. I suspect it's going to take some time for Oregon State to settle into a rhythm and ultimately offer some line value here in Pac-12 play. Take USC (8*). | |||||||
12-30-23 | Lions v. Cowboys -5 | Top | 19-20 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 24 m | Show |
NFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Detroit at 8:15 pm et on Saturday. The Cowboys are in a prime bounce-back spot as they return home following consecutive losses in Buffalo and Miami. Detroit on the other hand finds itself in a letdown spot after clinching the NFC North division with last week's win (and cover) in Minnesota. While I fully expect Dallas to crash and burn at some point in the playoffs, I do think it has plenty of upside over the next 2-3 weeks. Note that the Lions are a miserable 12-30 ATS in their last 42 road games following consecutive wins. Meanwhile, Dallas is a perfect 6-0 in its last six home games as a favorite of a touchdown or less. The Cowboys are also 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS defeat, as is the case here. Take Dallas (10*). | |||||||
12-30-23 | Blues v. Penguins -180 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 21 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh over St. Louis at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. While the Blues were battling it out with the division rival Avalanche last night on home ice, the Penguins were home and cool following consecutive off days. The last time we saw Pittsburgh take the ice it delivered a lopsided 7-0 victory on Long Island. The Pens are playing some of their best hockey of the season right now, winners of five of their last seven games. They're allowing just 2.5 goals per game on home ice this season and this marks the start of a three-game homestand that will take them into the New Year. Note that St. Louis has struggled to find the back of the net on the road this season, averaging 2.3 goals per contest while going 7-11. Take Pittsburgh (8*). | |||||||
12-30-23 | Toledo +3.5 v. Wyoming | Top | 15-16 | Win | 100 | 33 h 33 m | Show |
Bowl Game of the Week. My selection is on Toledo plus the points over Wyoming at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. This line has shifted considerably with the news that Toledo QB Dequan Finn has entered the transfer portal and will miss this game. I still like Toledo's chances of giving Wyoming all it can handle on Saturday afternoon. Note that the Rockets will be out to erase the memory of a disappointing loss in the MAC Championship Game against Miami-Ohio. There's no reason for the disappointment to linger as you could argue the Rockets still ended up with a higher-profile Bowl game. Wyoming closed out the regular season with consecutive blowout wins over Hawaii and Nevada. The Cowboys inability to step up in class turned out to be their downfall in the Mountain West Conference this season as they fell short against the likes of Air Force, Boise State and UNLV. I expect them to similarly have their hands full with a very capable Rockets squad here. Note that Toledo is 24-8 ATS in its last 32 games after scoring 14 points or less in its previous contest, as is the case here. Wyoming is 0-4 ATS in its last four games after posting a road victory by 28 points or more. Take Toledo (10*). | |||||||
12-30-23 | Ole Miss +6 v. Penn State | 38-25 | Win | 100 | 28 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Ole Miss plus the points over Penn State at 12 noon et on Saturday. Ole Miss has to feel pretty good at itself for reaching the Peach Bowl with a 10-2 record this season. The Rebels only two losses came against Alabama and Georgia. I like their chances of hanging tough against Penn State here. The Nittany Lions closed out the regular season with consecutive blowout wins over Rutgers and Michigan State. Note that Ole Miss is a long-term 63-46 ATS against non-conference opponents and 11-4 ATS in its last 15 Bowl games. Penn State checks in just 8-15 ATS in its last 23 games following a shutout victory, as is the case here. On the fast track at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, I look for the Rebels offense to thrive. Take Ole Miss (8*). | |||||||
12-29-23 | Hornets v. Suns UNDER 234.5 | 119-133 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Charlotte and Phoenix at 9:10 pm et on Friday. It sounds like Bradley Beal will take the floor for the Suns on Friday and that has given this total a bump. It generally takes two teams to topple a total this high, however, and this is a miserable spot for the road-weary Hornets. Charlotte got drummed again last night, allowing 130+ points in a game where the Lakers simply couldn't miss (they shot 52-of-97 from the field). Note that the Hornets have now been held to 43 or fewer made field goals in eight of their last nine games. Meanwhile, Phoenix has allowed 44 or fewer made field goals in an incredible 14 of its last 17 contests. On the flip side, the Suns went off two nights ago in Houston, connecting on 47-of-82 field goal attempts. While I'm not saying that performance is necessarily a one-off, I also don't think it's sustainable. Note that the 'under' is 44-32 in the Suns last 76 home games with a total set at 230 points or higher, as is the case here. The 'under' is also a long-term 47-41 in Phoenix's last 88 home games as a favorite of 12.5 points or more. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
12-29-23 | Washington v. Colorado OVER 155 | Top | 69-73 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 0 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Colorado at 9 pm et on Friday. You would have to go back to January of 2021 to find the last time these two teams eclipsed the total we're working with on Friday night. I think that changes here. Washington doesn't figure to pose much of a defensive threat against the high-flying Buffaloes. The Huskies have allowed opponents to hoist up an average of 64 field goal attempts per game this season with that number rising to 67 on the road. There is reason to believe Washington can keep pace to a certain extent. The Huskies didn't turn in their best performance last time out against Eastern Washington but still scored 73 points on just 23 made field goals. They're averaging 30 made field goals per contest this season. Colorado plays at a faster tempo at home, where it has yielded an average of 61 field goal attempts per game to the opposition this season. Both teams rank inside the top-90 in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
12-29-23 | Avalanche -160 v. Blues | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 25 h 30 m | Show |
Central Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Colorado over St. Louis at 8:05 pm et on Friday. I'll generally look to back the Avalanche in bounce back spots at every opportunity and will certainly do so here after they blew a 4-0 lead in Arizona and fell by a 5-4 score in overtime two nights ago. While the Avs were blowing that game, the Blues were outlasting the Stars by a 2-1 score here on home ice. Note that the road team has gone 9-2 in the last 11 meetings in this series. St. Louis is riding a three-game winning streak, matching its longest such streak this season. The last time the Blues won three in a row they went on to lose 5-1 to the Sharks in their next game. St. Louis did take the most recent meeting between these two teams by an 8-2 score in Denver on November 11th. The Avs are 25-19 in their last 44 road games when seeking revenge for a loss by four or more goals against an opponent. Take Colorado (10*). | |||||||
12-29-23 | Bucks v. Cavs +5.5 | 119-111 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Friday. The Cavaliers have gone through their ups and downs this season but have battled harder than most teams on their way to an 18-13 record. The needle is most definitely pointed up right now as they've gone 8-2-1 ATS over their last 11 games and draw a statement game at home against the Bucks on Friday. Milwaukee dismantled Brooklyn 144-122 two nights ago. We'll fade it off that win and cover as a double-digit favorite, however. Note that the Bucks are 13-26 ATS in their last 39 games after scoring 120 points or more in three straight games, as is the case here. They're also a long-term 96-102 ATS when coming off a double-digit road victory. Meanwhile, the Cavs are 15-9 ATS in their last 24 games off an upset win, which is the situation here following Wednesday's victory in Dallas. They're also a long-term 51-42 ATS when coming off consecutive road wins. The home team has dominated this particular series lately, taking six straight meetings both SU and ATS. Take Cleveland (8*). | |||||||
12-29-23 | Notre Dame v. Oregon State +6.5 | 40-8 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oregon State plus the points over Notre Dame at 2 pm et on Friday. I can't imagine this game means a whole lot to Notre Dame as a program. This is a team that wants to be playing for national championships, not second-rate Bowl game victories. The Irish put the clamps on Wake Forest and Stanford in their final two regular season games, rolling to lopsided victories. Their roster on Friday will be a far cry from the one that delivered those knockout blows, however. Oregon State will be missing plenty of key contributors from the regular season as well. I do think the Beavers will be playing with a considerable chip on their shoulder, however, as they look to avoid a three-game losing streak to wrap up the campaign (the 31-7 loss to rival Oregon in their regular season finale certainly stung). Oregon State will be making its fourth straight Bowl appearance having gone 2-1 SU in the previous three. Note that the Beavers are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 road games played with extended rest. Take Oregon State (8*). | |||||||
12-28-23 | Heat v. Warriors UNDER 228.5 | Top | 114-102 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. The Heat saw their most recent game on Christmas Night sneak 'over' the total as they outlasted the 76ers on their home floor. Note that Miami has still held nine of its last 10 opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, you would have to go back five games to find the last time the Heat connected on more than 41 field goals. The 'under' is 17-6 in the Warriors last 23 home games when playing on two of more days' rest, as is the case here. They covered but lost 120-114 in Denver on Christmas. Golden State has held seven of its last eight opponents to 45 or fewer made field goals and its last two foes to just 38 and 40 made field goals. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
12-28-23 | USC v. Oregon -2.5 | Top | 74-82 | Win | 100 | 32 h 3 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Oregon minus the points over USC at 9 pm et on Thursday. USC snapped a three-game losing streak with a 20-point rout of Alabama State last time out but it should find the going much tougher on Thursday as it opens Pac-12 play with a showdown against Oregon in Eugene. The Ducks rebounded from a 20-point beatdown at the hands of Syracuse by defeating Kent State 84-70 prior to the break. Oregon is now 4-1 SU and ATS over its last five contests. I like the Ducks chances of going off offensively in this one as USC's opponents have been stuffing the boxscores, knocking down 24 or more field goals in nine of 11 games to date. Oregon doesn't mind pushing the pace having hoisted up 60 or more field goal attempts in eight of its 11 contests so far this season. Take Oregon (10*). | |||||||
12-28-23 | Jazz v. Pelicans -8 | 105-112 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Utah at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. The Pelicans have dropped consecutive games but draw a favorable matchup to get back on track on Thursday against the Jazz. New Orleans recent losses haven't been for lack of trying. The Pelicans have still held eight straight opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. In stark contrast, the Jazz have allowed their last four opponents to knock down 45, 43, 44 and 45 field goals. Note that Utah is 15-29 ATS in its last 44 games after winning three of its last four contests, as is the case here, while New Orleans checks in 21-8 ATS in its last 29 home games after losing four of five of its last six games. The home team has reeled off four consecutive SU and ATS wins in this series. Take New Orleans (8*). | |||||||
12-28-23 | SMU v. Boston College +11 | 14-23 | Win | 100 | 2 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston College plus the points over SMU at 11 am et on Thursday. SMU rolled to a double-digit win in the AAC Championship Game against Tulane but I expect it to have a tougher time getting up for this early start Bowl game against a 6-6 Boston College team. The Eagles will of course have the advantage of playing this game in their own backyard at Fenway Park in Boston. We'll simply fade a Mustangs squad that has reeled off nine straight wins, noting that they're 2-11 ATS in their last 13 road games after winning four or more games in a row. The Eagles check in 18-12 ATS in their last 30 games after suffering consecutive losses against conference opponents. Take Boston College (8*). | |||||||
12-27-23 | Suns v. Rockets UNDER 225.5 | Top | 129-113 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Rockets were involved in a relatively high-scoring game last night but what else would you expect against the Pacers. Houston ended up hoisting up an uncharacteristic 97 field goal attempts in that game, largely due to the fact it was playing from behind much of the way. I expect a different game script to unfold against the struggling Suns on Wednesday. While Phoenix has had a tough time winning games it has continued to limit its opponents' opportunities, allowing fewer than 90 field goal attempts in five of its last six and nine of its last 14 games. On the flip side, the Suns have knocked down 42 or fewer field goals in 14 of their last 15 contests. Houston limited Indiana to only 82 field goal attempts last night but the Pacers quite simply shot the lights out, as it often does. The Rockets have been incredibly stingy at home this season, holding the opposition to an average of just 36-of-86 shooting from the field. Houston has seen the 'under' cash in 17 of its last 23 games as a home underdog of six points or less. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
12-27-23 | Penguins v. Islanders UNDER 6 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -101 | 23 h 17 m | Show |
Metropolitan Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and New York at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. Both of these teams are coming off wild, high-scoring 5-4 affairs with the Penguins losing in Ottawa and the Islanders winning in Carolina. Keep in mind, the Pens are just one game removed from a 2-1 win over the Hurricanes and the Isles just lost 3-2 in Washington two games back. Note that the 'under' is 32-12 in Pittsburgh's last 44 road games after giving up four goals or more in its previous contest. Similarly, the 'under' is 11-3 in the Isles last 14 home games after allowing four goals or more in their previous game. We haven't seen the 'under' cash in any of the last six matchups in this series. That marks the longest 'over' streak in this series since 2003-04. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
12-27-23 | Virginia Tech v. Tulane +10.5 | 41-20 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tulane plus the points over Virginia Tech at 2 pm et on Wednesday. Things didn't look all that promising for Virginia Tech after it got off to a 1-3 start this season. A lopsided win over Pittsburgh on the final day of September gave the Hokies some confidence and from there they scratched and clawed their way to six victories to gain Bowl eligibility. They're being favored by a considerable number of points on Wednesday as Tulane has a number of key contributors sitting out including do-it-all QB Michael Pratt. I like the spot for the Green Wave here, however, as they come in with a sour taste in their mouths after suffering a double-digit loss against SMU in the AAC Championship Game. Virginia Tech routed rival Virginia 55-17 back on November 25th. That's notable as the Hokies are a miserable 11-24 ATS in their last 35 games played away from home after a win by 21 points or more over a conference opponent, as is the case here. Tulane has reached six Bowl games since 2013, going 4-2 with the only double-digit loss coming by 11 points against Nevada in 2020. Take Tulane (8*). | |||||||
12-26-23 | Hornets v. Clippers UNDER 228.5 | 104-113 | Win | 100 | 15 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Charlotte and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Clippers are coming off back-to-back dreadful defensive efforts against the Thunder and Celtics but this looks like an ideal 'get right' matchup against the Hornets on Tuesday. Note that Charlotte has made good on fewer than 40 field goals in three of its last four games. The last time these two teams squared off was just over a year ago and on that night, the Clips held the Hornets to 37-of-92 from the field. Los Angeles will look to get going again offensively against a Charlotte squad that has at least been able to slow its opponents' pace. The Hornets have allowed 88 or fewer field goal attempts in nine of their last 13 games. With the Clips averaging only 87 FG attempts per contest at home this season, I'm not convinced the pace will get this one to the posted total. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
12-26-23 | Kansas v. UNLV +13 | 49-36 | Push | 0 | 23 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on UNLV plus the points over Kansas at 9 pm et on Tuesday. The thinking here is that UNLV isn't ready to hang with the big boys having ended the regular season with a thud in consecutive losses against San Jose State and Boise State (in the Mountain West Conference championship game). I actually think the Runnin' Rebels draw a favorable matchup here with Kansas having yet to win a Bowl game in program history (0-9). The Jayhawks aren't a good defensive team, even if they did close out the regular season with a blowout win over Cincinnati. The Rebels will certainly be comfortable playing indoors at Chase Field in Phoenix, a reasonable facsimile for their own home field at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. Note that Kansas is a long-term loser at 156-197 ATS while UNLV has gone a perfect 8-0 ATS in its last eight non-conference affairs. Take UNLV (8*). | |||||||
12-25-23 | Ravens v. 49ers -6 | 33-19 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Baltimore at 8:15 pm et on Monday. Fresh off a fourth straight win, this one coming on the road against Jacksonville in primetime last week, we'll fade the Ravens here as they face the 49ers in what is being billed as a potential Super Bowl preview. San Francisco is rolling right now. Even last week when it didn't bring its 'A' game defensively, it still laid waste to the Cardinals by 16 points. That marked the Niners sixth straight victory having gone 4-2 ATS over that stretch. San Francisco has been a terrific bet playing with positive momentum as it checks in 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games after scoring 25 points or more in consecutive games, as is the case here. The Niners are also 24-12 ATS in their last 36 games following a win. Take San Francisco (8*). | |||||||
12-25-23 | 76ers v. Heat UNDER 226.5 | Top | 113-119 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 31 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Miami at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The Heat's four-game 'over' streak came to an end last time out against Atlanta while Philadelphia enters Monday's contest riding a two-game 'over' streak. I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair than most in this Christmas Night matchup. Note that the 76ers remain an elite defensive team. They've held eight straight and 11 of their last 12 opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals - that's an accomplishment by today's NBA standards. Miami can also hold its own defensively having allowed 42 or fewer made field goals in four straight and eight of its last nine games. Add in the fact that the Heat have been scuffing their heels offensively, knocking down just 41, 40 and 40 field goals over their last three contests but check into this one in a near pk'em range and you can understand why I'm favoring the 'under' in Miami on Monday. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
12-24-23 | Cardinals v. Bears OVER 43 | Top | 16-27 | Push | 0 | 18 h 28 m | Show |
NFC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Chicago at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. On a surprisingly pleasant Christmas Eve in Chicago weather-wise, we'll call for plenty of points in this NFC matchup. The Cardinals dropped a 45-29 decision at home against the 49ers last week and draw a similar matchup against an improved Bears defense here. With that said, Arizona has scored 24 or more points in consecutive games and it positioned quite well to thrive with the Kyle Murray-to-Trey McBride connection working wonders for the offense. Chicago has the potential to light it up as well as it looks to bounce back following last week's blown opportunity in Cleveland. The Bears didn't keep their foot on the gas against the Browns and ultimately let Cleveland off the hook. Against a reeling Cardinals defense we can anticipate Bears QB Justin Field going off in this matchup. Note that the 'over' is 17-10 in the Bears last 27 games following an ATS loss. The 'over' is also 15-11 in the Cards last 26 games after giving up 40 or more points in their previous contest. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
12-24-23 | Lions v. Vikings +3 | Top | 30-24 | Loss | -100 | 71 h 59 m | Show |
NFC North Game of the Year. My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. Easy call for us here as we'll back the underdog Vikings at home after they dropped a hard-fought 27-24 decision in Cincinnati last Saturday while the Lions rolled to a blowout in over the Broncos. Note that the home team has gone 6-1 SU in the last seven meetings in this series. Detroit is just one game removed from a 15-point loss in Chicago and checks in a miserable 17-32 ATS in its last 49 games as a road favorite. Minnesota on the other hand is 40-24 ATS in its last 64 games as a home underdog and 6-2 ATS in its last eight contests following a loss by six points or less. Take Minnesota (10*). | |||||||
12-24-23 | Seahawks v. Titans OVER 41.5 | 20-17 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Tennessee at 1 pm et on Sunday. With the Seahawks low-scoring victory over the Eagles on Monday Night Football still fresh in the minds of most bettors, we're working with a relatively low total in Sunday's matchup in Tennessee. The Seahawks will turn back to Geno Smith at quarterback for this contest. There's reason to believe Seattle's offense can thrive with a run-first mindset against a Titans defense that quite simply has no answers against the run right now, allowing 158 and 148 rushing yards in their last two games. Keeping the Titans defense honest with Kenneth Walker at the ground attack should serve to open things up for a red hot D.K. Metcalf and the Seahawks passing game. Speaking of turning back to veteran quarterbacks, the Titans will go back to Ryan Tannehill under center on Sunday. Much like the Seahawks against the Titans defense, Tennessee's ground game should roll against a very beatable Seattle run defense. Tennessee also catches a break with Seattle missing standout rookie CB Devon Witherspoon. Note that the 'over' is 40-23 in the Titans last 63 home games after losing two of their last three games ATS, as is the case here. The 'over' is also 21-10 in Seattle's last 31 games following an upset win at home. Take the over (8*). |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ricky Tran | $756 |
ProSportsPicks | $632 |
Joseph D'Amico | $510 |
Joey Tron | $450 |
Tom Macrina | $399 |
Nick Parsons | $344 |
Sean Murphy | $306 |
Jack Jones | $303 |
William Burns | $233 |
Dan Kaiser | $220 |