Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
02-15-22 | Brighton & Hove Albion v. Manchester United OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -103 | 27 h 44 m | Show |
EPL Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Manchester United and Brighton & Hove at 3:15 pm et on Tuesday. We missed with Manchester United as its misery continued with a disappointing 1-1 home draw against Southampton on Saturday. I see this as a fine 'get right' spot, particularly at the offensive end of the pitch but given the Red Devils recent vulnerability at the back-end, I suspect Brighton & Hove will be able to find some success as well. The fact that we're dealing with a relatively low posted total is no surprise. Man U has seen four of its last five matches stay 'under' 2.5 goals while the same can be said for Brighton in five of its last six contests. That's a bit conflicting, however, as both teams have scored in five of Man U's last six matches and seven of Brighton's last eight. Also, in spite of the Red Devils recent struggles, going winless in their last three matches, they've actually managed to score first in seven straight matches and here will face a Brighton squad that tends to play from behind, allowing the first score in five of its last six. In this particular series, goals haven't been all that difficult to come by. In fact, each of the last seven meetings between these two squads has gone 'over' 2.5 total goals with both teams finding the back of the net in five of those contests. You would have to go back eight meetings to find the last time Brighton shut Man U out entirely so again, this looks like a fine 'get right' situation, which lends itself to a relatively high-scoring affair in my opinion. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
02-15-22 | Real Madrid v. Paris Saint-Germain OVER 2.75 | 0-1 | Loss | -116 | 26 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Paris Saint-Germain and Real Madrid at 3 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these squads are coming off tight, low-scoring affairs with PSG prevailing on a goal in injury time against Stade-Rennes and Real Madrid settling for a 0-0 draw against Villarreal. Of course, in the case of the latter, we know that La Liga is often where quality offenses go to die. Perhaps that's a bit harsh, but 0-0 affairs in Spain are by no means out of the ordinary. Seeing PSG held to just a single goal and needing the full 90 minutes and then some to get it was surprising, however. While we haven't seen these two European powerhouses meet since 2019, there's been a history of thrilling, relatively high-scoring matchups between the two. In fact, each of the last five meetings has gone 'over' 2.5 total goals - the total we're working with on Tuesday (at the time of writing). In four of those five matches we saw both teams find the back of the net, and I expect a similar story to unfold here. Getting away from league play should serve to open things up for both sides after getting bogged down last time out. Note that PSG has had a penchant for taking the reins in its matches, scoring the first goal in four of its last five trips to the pitch. I'm confident it can set Real Madrid back on its heels here as well. An answer should never be far off for Madrid, however, noting that it has excelled in Champions League action, posting a 5-0-1 record to date, scoring 14 goals in the process. Take the over (7*). | |||||||
02-14-22 | Warriors v. Clippers UNDER 222.5 | Top | 104-119 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
NBA Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Monday. I'm not convinced either of these teams want to get involved in a track meet on Monday night. The Warriors will be playing for the fourth time in the last six nights after dropping two of their last three games. The 'over' has cashed in their last two contests as they uncharacteristically struggled to contain the Knicks and Lakers offenses, allowing 116 and 115 points. Here, they'll catch the Clippers just one day removed from a hard-fought 99-97 win in Dallas to snap a three-game skid. L.A. isn't going to be at full strength for this game with newly-acquired Norman Powell sidelined due to a toe injury and Luke Kennard questionable to play as well. Note that the 'under' has gone 18-8 with the Warriors coming off an ATS loss this season with those games totalling an average of just 209.3 points. Meanwhile, the Clippers have seen the 'under' cash at a 14-4 clip after losing three of their last four games ATS this season, resulting in an average total of just 205.2 points in that spot. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
02-14-22 | Oilers v. Sharks OVER 6 | 3-0 | Loss | -116 | 13 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Edmonton and San Jose at 10:35 pm et on Monday. The Oilers are coming off three straight low-scoring 'under' results but I look for a different story to unfold as they head to San Jose to face a Sharks squad that has been idle since February 1st. Note that Edmonton has actually been a higher-scoring team on the road compared to at home this season, averaging 3.4 goals per game. Better still, the Oilers have averaged 4.0 goals per game when coming off a home victory over the last three seasons. That is of course the situation here following Saturday's 3-1 win over the Islanders. Here, they'll face a Sharks squad that has struggled to keep the puck out of their own net all season here at home, allowing 3.3 goals per game. On the flip side, San Jose had scored just three goals over is last two contests - both losses - prior to the extended layoff. Note that the Sharks average 3.6 goals per game when coming off consecutive losses this season (11-game sample size). While San Jose has predominantly been an 'under' team this season (18-28 o/u record), the 'over' has gone 5-4 when it comes off a two-game stretch in which it managed to score three goals or less, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 6.2 goals. With regular starter Mikko Koskinen on the Covid list, we're likely to see Mike Smith between the pipes for the Oilers. The last time he faced the Sharks the result was a 6-3 San Jose victory here in California. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
02-14-22 | Blackhawks v. Jets -155 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -155 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
NHL Central Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Winnipeg over Chicago at 9:05 pm et on Monday. The Jets have now collected at least a point in all three games since the All-Star break, with their lone loss coming by way of overtime in Dallas on Friday (we won with the Stars in that game). While a letdown could certainly be in order against the lowly Blackhawks here, it's not something the Jets can afford as they need all the points they can get to continue to gain ground in a crowded Western Conference playoff race. Winnipeg sits seven points back of the Ducks for the second Wild Card spot in the West, but does have four games in hand, with one of those coming tonight. The Blackhawks looked lifeless in Saturday's 5-1 loss in St. Louis (we won with the Blues), managing only 16 shots on goal in a lopsided 5-1 loss. Chicago is now a miserable 3-14 in division games this season, outscored by an average margin of 1.9 goals. The Blackhawks check in allowing 3.4 goals per game on the road this season where they've been outscored by an average margin of 0.7 goals. While the Jets offense has taken off over the last couple of games, they also continue to receive tremendous goaltending from Connor Hellebuyck as he has posted a .940 save percentage over his last four games. Take Winnipeg (10*). | |||||||
02-14-22 | Oklahoma State v. Kansas UNDER 143.5 | 62-76 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma State and Kansas at 9 pm et on Monday. The first meeting between these two teams totalled just 137 points in a game where both teams played faster than usual. We're dealing with a slightly lower total for this one than we saw in that previous encounter but I'm not sure enough of an adjustment has been made. It's unlikely Kansas is going to shoot better than it has over its last four games, incredibly knocking down better than 51% of its field goal attempts in each of those four contests. Oklahoma State is fresh off a strong offensive showing of its own, scoring 81 points on 48% shooting but that came at the expense of West Virginia at home. Lost in that strong offensive performance was the fact that the Cowboys held the Mountaineers to just 31.7% shooting. That marks the second time in the last three games that Oklahoma State has held the opposition to sub-40% from the field. Note that the 'under' is on a long-term 24-15 run in this particular series. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
02-14-22 | Virginia v. Virginia Tech UNDER 119.5 | 53-62 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Virginia and Virginia Tech at 7 pm et on Monday. At first glance, this looks like a pretty low total. In fact, it doesn't just look like a low total, it is. With that being said, it's warranted in my opinion. These two in-state rivals have met four times since the start of 2020 with those four games totalling 104, 109, 116 and 106 points with the latter result coming earlier this season. Both teams are rolling right now. The Cavaliers have won four in a row including a stunning upset win at Duke while the Hokies are winners of five straight games. The question will be which defense blinks first in this one as both are more than capable of stymieing the opposing offense. There have certainly been situations lately where the oddsmakers have gone a little too far in setting low totals in games involving these teams as Virginia has seen the 'over' cash in four of its last five games while Virginia Tech has posted a 6-2 o/u mark over its last eight. I don't expect that to be the case here as neither team gives an inch in this rivalry showdown. Take the under (7*). | |||||||
02-14-22 | Blackburn Rovers v. West Bromwich Albion OVER 2.5 | 0-0 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between West Brom and Blackburn at 3 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams bring poor scoring form to the table on Monday - a big reason why we're being offered a plus-money return to back the 'over' 2.5 goals. West Brom remains in third-place in the EFL standings but has failed to bulge the twine in its last three matches, losing all three of those games. Blackburn is in a battle to simply remain in playoff contention and has gone winless in its last three matches, failing to score in any of those. With all of that being said, West Brom hasn't recorded a clean sheet in any of its last five matches against Blackburn. Worse still, Blackburn hasn't shut out West Brom in any of the last seven meetings. Each of the last five matches between these two has seen both teams score and five of the last seven have gone 'over' 2.5 goals. Both squads realize the importance of this week-opener. As I mentioned, West Brom sits in third position but the other teams it is contending with at the top of the table have matches in hand so earning three points from this match is critical. Blackburn is in similar position but considerably lower in the table and needs to take something away from this contest in order to improve its playoff prospects. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
02-14-22 | Ath Bilbao +136 v. Mallorca | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Athletic over Mallorca at 3 pm et on Monday. I'll take a shot at the plus-money return with the better side in this contest. Athletic checks in undefeated over is last five matches and faces a vulnerable Mallorca side that has conceded at least a goal in eight straight contests. In seven of those eight matches, Mallorca was the first to allow a goal. In this particular series, it has been all Athletic as it hasn't conceded three points against Mallorca in any of the last nine matches between the two. Noting Mallorca's issues with falling behind, Athletic has also been the first team to score in four of the last five matches in this series. While Athletic has certainly had a tendency to 'draw' in away matches this season, I like its chances of grabbing all three points with a victory on Monday, noting that it can definitely use the points sitting just outside of the top six (four points behind sixth-place Real Sociedad). Mallorca is well out of contention, sitting in 17th place, largely due to a poor -15 goal differential. Take Athletic (7*). | |||||||
02-14-22 | Fiorentina v. Spezia Calcio OVER 2.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Spezia and Fiorentina at 2:45 pm et on Monday. I'm expecting goals aplenty in this match as Spezia hosts Fiorentina on Monday. Spezia plays a free-flowing style that tends to afford plenty of scoring opportunities to the opposing side so it's not a big surprise that it sits near the bottom of the Serie A table. Interestingly, it does enter this match having gone undefeated over its last four so there's reason for confidence against a Fiorentina side that is not without its own warts. Fiorentina has been forced to play a man down due to red cards in each of its last three Serie A matches. Note that the 'over' 2.5 goals has cashed in five of its last six trips to the pitch and you would have to go back four matches to find the last time it posted a clean sheet. It should also be confident as a favorite here, however, noting that it has gone undefeated in the last three meetings between these two squads, finding the back of the net in all three of those matches. Expect an entertaining affair between these two teams on Monday. Take the over (6*). | |||||||
02-13-22 | Rams v. Bengals +4.5 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 80 h 14 m | Show |
NFL Game of the Year. My selection is on Cincinnati plus the points over Los Angeles at 6:30 pm et on Sunday. | |||||||
02-13-22 | Rams v. Bengals UNDER 48.5 | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 59 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first half 'under' between Cincinnati and Los Angeles at 6:30 pm et on Sunday. | |||||||
02-13-22 | Colorado State v. Boise State UNDER 133.5 | Top | 77-74 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
CBB Mountain West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado State and Boise State at 4 pm et on Sunday. Boise State is one of the stingiest home teams in the country, allowing just 53 field goal attempts per game (17 from beyond the arc) while sending opponents to the free throw line only 14 times per game. Yet here the Broncos are, coming off four consecutive 'over' results, with their last two games being played right here in Boise. I believe that has helped push this total a little too high. Colorado State isn't going to overwhelm anyone with its pace. In fact, the Rams play at an almost identical tempo to that of the Broncos. While they do average 73 points per game away from home, I don't see them coming close to that number against a Boise State defense that allows less than 60 points per game here at home. The Rams are fresh off a game that totalled just 115 points in a lopsided victory over Fresno State. They actually check in having shot 51% or better from the field in consecutive games but again, I don't see them approaching that level of success here. Note that the 'under' is a perfect 7-0 with Colorado State involved in a game with a total set between 130 and 139.5 points, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
02-13-22 | Avalanche -150 v. Stars | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 4 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado over Dallas at 2:05 pm et on Sunday. The Stars handed the Avalanche one of their eight regulation time losses in their lone previous meeting this season. That came back in late November and was by no means an ideal spot for Colorado as it was on one of those difficult one-game trips to get up for on the heels of six consecutive wins by two goals or more. On the flip side, the Stars were coming off two days off and wrapping up a three-game homestand. The Stars are once again wrapping up a homestand here, but I believe they're the ones that are in for the letdown this time around. We actually won with Dallas in its 4-3 overtime win over Winnipeg on Friday. The Stars are 3-2 on their current homestand but three of those games were virtual dead heats and in another they were drilled 5-0 by the Capitals. When healthy, there's a considerable gap between the Avalanche and the rest of the league in my opinion - certainly in the Western Conference. Here, Colorado will welcome back Nathan MacKinnon and I'm convinced he's ready to return, otherwise it likely would have taken a more cautious route and brought him back for its next game, at home against these same Stars on Tuesday. Note that the Avs have allowed just 2.2 goals per game and outscored opponents by 0.7 goals on average when playing on the road seeking revenge for a road loss by two goals or more over the last two seasons, as is the case here (13-game sample size). Take Colorado (8*). | |||||||
02-13-22 | Stony Brook v. Maine UNDER 139.5 | Top | 85-74 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
CBB America East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Stony Brook and Maine at 1 pm et on Sunday. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled 152 points but that's been far from the norm in this series with the last 10 matchups averaging a total of just 130 points. Stony Brook enters this game off a wild 87-85 win over UMass-Lowell - also not the norm for the Seawolves this season, noting that their previous three contests had all stayed 'under' the total. Stony Brook has had a bit of a difficult time controlling opponents' tempo on the road but shouldn't have such trouble here against a Maine squad that doesn't tend to get out and run here at home, averaging 56 field goal attempts per game (20 from three-point range) and gets to the free throw line an average of just 14 times per contest. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
02-13-22 | Arminia Bielefeld +1 v. Hoffenheim | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arminia Bielefield +1 goal over 1899 Hoffenheim at 11:30 am et on Sunday. The goal line spread may make some sense at first glance but a closer look indicates the wrong side might even be favored in this one. Arminia is a true upstart in Bundesliga play this season and enters this match having gone undefeated over its last six matches. Meanwhile Hoffenheim is completely out of sorts having lost four in a row. Worse still it has gone 10 matches without posting a clean sheet. That gives us a nice overlay here when you consider Arminia has seen seven of its last nine contests stay ‘under’ 2.5 goals. Also noting that four of the last five matches in this series have totalled two goals or less, I’m comfortable backing the underdog side with an insurance goal in this one. Take Arminia Bielefield +1 goal (8*). | |||||||
02-13-22 | West Ham United v. Leicester OVER 2.5 | 2-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Leicester City and West Ham at 11:30 am et on Sunday. Both of these squads are coming off relatively low-scoring affairs but I look for a different story to unfold on Sunday. Leicester enters this match winless over its last four contests. It has also yielded at least a goal in five consecutive matches. While West Ham has had a tendency to get involved in lower-scoring affairs, that hasn't been the case in this particular matchup as each of the last six meetings have gone 'over' 2.5 goals. For Leicester's part, it has failed to register a clean sheet in each of its last 10 meetings with West Ham. We've consistently seen highly-competitive affairs between these two with both teams finding the back of the net in six of the last seven matchups. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
02-13-22 | Borussia Dortmund v. Union Berlin OVER 2.75 | 3-0 | Win | 50 | 4 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund at 9:30 am et on Sunday. Dortmund won't have the services of Erling Haaland for this match and that's a big reason why we're dealing with a total as low as we are. I believe it will prove too low. Dortmund is of course likely going to have to get used to playing without its high-profile striker as he's rumored to be moving on to greener pastures. Here, we'll note that Dortmund has gone six matches without posting a clean sheet and the 'over' 2.5 goals has cashed in each of its last seven contests. On the flip side, Union Berlin checks in off a 2-0 defeat against potential relegation candidate Augsburg. Note that it has conceded at least a goal in eight consecutive matches in this series. That's not to say it has been all that one-sided though as both teams have scored in six of the last eight meetings and five of the last six have gone 'over' 2.5 goals. I'm anticipating another relatively high-scoring affair, even without Haaland in the mix on Sunday. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
02-13-22 | Aston Villa v. Newcastle United UNDER 2.5 | 0-1 | Win | 105 | 3 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Newcastle and Aston Villa at 9 am et on Sunday. I'm anticipating a tightly-contested affair between these two teams on Sunday. Both squads enter Sunday's contest undefeated over their last three matches. It's also worth noting that four of Newcastle's last five matches have stayed 'under' 2.5 goals. Speaking of 'under' trends, the last 10 meetings in this series have all stayed 'under' 2.5 goals. Interestingly, Aston Villa has gone undefeated in the last five meetings but it doesn't exactly bring tremendous form into this contest, having only managed one victory and two draws in its last six matches. Newcastle on the other hand is coming off a 3-1 win over Everton - its second victory in a row. A letdown could certainly be in order here and it will need to be careful considering Aston Villa has struck first in four of the last five matches in this series. Take the under (9*). | |||||||
02-13-22 | Wolverhampton Wanderers v. Tottenham Hotspur -148 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -148 | 3 h 10 m | Show |
EPL First Half Game of the Year. My selection is on Tottenham first half over Wolverhampton at 9 am et on Sunday. Spurs are coming off a 3-2 loss to Southampton, the same Southampton team that also proved to be a tough out against Manchester United in a 1-1 draw on Saturday. Tottenham has been consistently inconsistent since the turn of the New Year, alternating wins and losses over its last eight matches. With that being said, I like the way it sets up early in Sunday's away match against Wolverhampton. Wolves check in off a 1-0 loss against Arsenal, it's second straight 1-0 defeat after falling by the same score against Norwich City in FA Cup play. Here, we'll note that Tottenham has incredibly won the first half in eight consecutive matches between these two squads. You would have to go back 13 matches between Spurs and Wolves to find the last time the latter posted a clean sheet. It's a true 'get right' spot for Spurs, and I look for them to at the very least get off to a positive start on Sunday. Take Tottenham first half (10*). | |||||||
02-12-22 | Magic v. Suns UNDER 225.5 | 105-132 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Orlando and Phoenix at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'under' in Orlando's loss in Utah last night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Phoenix is coming off three straight 'over' results including a 131-107 win over the Bucks in an NBA Finals rematch on Thursday. I expect to see the Suns use this matchup to catch their break, to to speak, following a stretch of five games in eight nights (in five different cities). After this contest, Phoenix will get a couple of days off before a back-to-back set against the Clippers and Rockets. Orlando has now been held under 100 points in two of its last three games and doesn't figure to show much improvement against a terrific defensive opponent here, especially considering it will be playing its fifth game in the last eight nights (in four different cities). While Orlando has allowed 110.7 points per game on the road this season, it has actually given up just 105.2 points per contest when playing away from home after losing three of its last four games ATS, as is the case here. That situation has produced an average total of just 212.8 total points (10-game sample size). Take the under (9*). | |||||||
02-12-22 | Clippers +7 v. Mavs | Top | 99-97 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Saturday. We settled for a push with the Clippers in the front half of this two-game set in Dallas. We were somewhat fortunate as the Clips trailed that game virtually the entire way and Luka Doncic went off for 51 points. Here, I'm confident in Los Angeles' ability to make the necessary adjustments and close the gap in a quick rematch on Saturday. Despite Doncic's incredible performance, there actually wasn't all that much separating the two teams on Thursday. Dallas knocked down four more threes (on 16 more attempts) and also made good on five more free throws. Note that the Clippers are a terrific 9-1 ATS when playing on the road after losing five or six of their last seven games ATS over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 13.4 points on average in that situation. In 35 previous occasions where Dallas played at home off an ATS win over the last two seasons, it has only managed to outscore the opposition by an average margin of 1.5 points. After allowing 105 points or less in their previous contest this season, the Mavs have outscored opponents by just 1.2 points on average (30-game sample size). Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
02-12-22 | Blackhawks v. Blues -185 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis over Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. The Blues enter Saturday's game against Chicago on the heels of two straight losses - the first time they've dropped consecutive games since December 2nd and 4th. They haven't lost three in a row since a four-game losing streak back in the second week of November. I look for them to bounce back here as they host the Blackhawks on Saturday night. Chicago delivered a 4-1 win in Edmonton in its first game coming out of the All-Star break but remains just 2-7 over its last nine contests. Note that the Blackhawks are averaging just 2.6 goals per game on the road this season while St. Louis averages an impressive 3.8 goals per contest at home. Better still, the Blues average 4.7 goals per game when playing at home after losing two of their last three games this season, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by 1.1 goals on average in that spot. Take St. Louis (7*). | |||||||
02-12-22 | Dartmouth v. Princeton OVER 139.5 | 40-85 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Dartmouth and Princeton at 4 pm et on Saturday. Dartmouth has a tendency to yield to whatever tempo its opponent chooses to set, as we saw in the previous meeting between these two teams this season - a game that Princeton won by an 84-80 score. In this case, I'm confident we'll see the Tigers continue to push the pace, just as they have in their last four games, hoisting up 67, 64, 65 and 68 field goal attempts. Dartmouth got off 62 field goal attempts but couldn't make the most of them in a 62-60 loss at Brown last time out. Note that the Big Green have scored fairly consistently on the Ivy League road this season, racking up 71, 68, 76, 69 and 60 points in five conference road tilts. Princeton hasn't been held to fewer than 72 points since way back on November 24th at Monmouth. The Tigers have been ultra-efficient at the offensive end of the floor here at home this season, shooting better than 50% from the field and knocking down 11-of-28 three-point attempts per contest. With Dartmouth playing its fourth straight game away from home, it will need to push the pace itself in order to keep up. The good news is, the Big Green have actually shot better from beyond the arc on the road this season, knocking down an average of 10 triples per game. Take the over (9*). | |||||||
02-12-22 | Bowling Green v. Miami-OH -1 | 78-94 | Win | 100 | 6 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami-Ohio minus the points over Bowling Green at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I expect Miami-Ohio to have opportunities abound in this one as it looks to post a second straight win after snapping a five-game losing streak with a win over Western Michigan last time out. Bowling Green has managed to go just 4-8 SU and 5-7 ATS on the road this season as it has had no luck at all trying to contain opposing offenses. The Falcons check in allowing 62 field goal attempts per game, 28 of those from three-point range and 22 free throw attempts on the road this season. Not surprisingly it all adds up to giving up just shy of 81 points per game away from home. While the Redhawks have struggled as a whole lately, and certainly from an ATS perspective, they do continue to do a good job of buttoning up opposing offenses here at home. By contrast, they allow just 57 field goal attempts and give up only 15 trips to the free throw line here on their home floor. Bowling Green took the first meeting between these two teams by an 87-83 score at home in early January. The only real difference in that one was that the Falcons had a 23-9 disparity in terms of free throw attempts, knocking down 12 more of those freebies than the Redhawks. Miami-Ohio got off a whopping 44 three-point attempts in that game, making good on 15 of them. Look for the Redhawks to get their revenge at home on Saturday. Take Miami-Ohio (9*). | |||||||
02-12-22 | Sacred Heart -1.5 v. Fairleigh Dickinson | Top | 75-82 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 16 m | Show |
CBB NEC Game of the Year. My selection is on Sacred Heart minus the points over Fairleigh Dickinson at 1 pm et on Saturday. You'd be hard-pressed to find a worse Division I college basketball team than Fairleigh Dickinson this season. KenPom ranks them ahead of only eight other teams in the country and I think even that is a fairly forgiving ranking. The Knights lone victory since the start of January came against another awful NEC squad in Central Connecticut State. Sacred Heart certainly doesn't bring much 'wow factor' either but it has at least been playing competitive basketball in-conference. Just one week ago it pulled out a hard-fought overtime win on the road against St. Francis-Brooklyn and just two nights prior to that took LUI-Brooklyn down to the wire in a 79-75 road loss. These two teams just met back on January 15th with Sacred Heart prevailing by a score of 77-71. FDU lost that game by six points despite getting off a whopping 70 field goal attempts compared to Sacred Heart's 56. The Knights also won the turnover battle by a 14-11 margin in that game. I don't expect them to repeat either of those feats on Saturday as I look for Sacred Heart to dictate the tempo and ultimately pick up a win to gain some ground in the NEC (it enters Saturday's action just a half-game out of fifth place while FDU sits in last place). Take Sacred Heart (10*). | |||||||
02-12-22 | FC Augsburg v. Borussia Monchengladbach -145 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
Bundesliga Game of the Month. My selection is on Borussia Monchengladbach over FC Augsburg at 9:30 am et on Saturday. Monchengladbach was fortunate to come away with a single point in its most recent match against relegation candidate Arminia Bielefield last time out. Now 'Gladbach is in a bit of a pickle itself as it tries to stave off potential relegation - a shocking turn of events after it showed such promise over the last couple of years. Needless to say, gaining three points from this home fixture is imperative. I'm confident we'll see Die Borussen do just that on Saturday. Of course, this won't be an easy match as Augsburg has actually gone undefeated in its last three meetings with Monchengladbach. With that being said, I believe 'Gladbach's focus will be assured given that its next two matches will come against two difficult opponents in Dortmund and Wolfsburg. Augsburg is one of the weakest road sides in the Bundesliga. It has secured victory only once in its last 17 away matches in league/top level tournament action. Take Borussia Monchengladbach (10*). | |||||||
02-12-22 | VfL Wolfsburg v. Eintracht Frankfurt OVER 2.5 | 2-0 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Wolfsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt at 9:30 am et on Saturday. I look for both of these German sides to 'go for it' in Saturday's key fixture at Deutsche Bank Park. Frankfurt is coming off a 3-2 win over Stuttgart and can potentially earn European qualification by picking up all three points in this match on Saturday. That result is certainly well within the realm of possibility against a Wolfsburg side that is simply looking to avoid potential relegation at this point. Keep in mind, Wolfsburg had faced a very difficult slate of matches prior to a win last time out. With renewed confidence there's certainly a window of opportunity cracked here as Frankfurt has been anything but consistent. Frankfurt yielded far more productive scoring chances than the end result showed in that most recent 3-2 victory. That poor defensive form could lend itself to another tightly-contested affair here. Frankfurt will be fortunate to welcome back midfielder Filip Kostic for this match after he missed the victory over Stuttgart due to flu-like symptons. However, it will likely be missing key defender Hasebe due to a rib injury. Kruse and Wind will look to once again find some fruits for their labor on the attack for Wolfsburg. Take the over (9*). | |||||||
02-12-22 | Southampton v. Manchester United -167 | 1-1 | Loss | -167 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Manchester United over Southampton at 7:30 am et on Saturday. This is a big match for Manchester United after settling for a disappointing 1-1 draw against Burnley earlier this week. The Red Devils jumped ahead 1-0 in that match and appeared to grab a 2-0 lead before VAR overturned the second goal and Burnley went on to equalize early in the second half. It's been an ugly run for Manchester United, falling all the way to fifth place in the Premier League. All is not lost, however. The Red Devils can take a step in the right direction by picking up three points against Southampton on Saturday and I'm confident they'll do just that. Ralf Rangnick made the curious decision to bench Cristiano Ronaldo against Burnley. Needless to say, Ronaldo will have plenty to prove on Saturday. Southampton is coming off a stunning 3-2 victory over Tottenham Hotspur last time out. Collecting another point (or more) in this match is a difficult proposition to be sure. Keep in mind, Southampton was fortunate to come away with three points in that match against Spurs, as the latter seemingly netted the equalizer in the closing minutes before it was called back due to offsides. Even with that win, we're still talking about a squad that sits 10th in the Premier League table. Take Manchester United (6*). | |||||||
02-11-22 | Seattle Kraken v. Ducks -145 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -145 | 14 h 1 m | Show |
NHL Pacific Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Anaheim over Seattle at 10:05 pm et on Friday. It's been a long layoff for the Ducks, having not played since January 31st when they suffered a 2-1 loss in Detroit. By contrast, Seattle will be playing its fourth game since February 1st. The Kraken have not surprisingly been highly inconsistent in their inaugural campaign. One thing that has been consistent, however, is their performance on the road, where they've gone 6-15, averaging just 2.5 goals per game while being outscored by 0.7 goals on average. They've already lost both previous meetings against the Ducks, including a 4-1 defeat here in Anaheim. While the Ducks are just 13-11 on home ice, they've generally played well here, averaging 3.1 goals per game while outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.7 goals. While Anaheim currently holds down the final playoff spot in the Western Conference, it needs to take advantage of games like this as it sits just five points ahead of the Stars, who currently have four games in hand. Picking up two points is paramount here as due to a quirky NHL schedule, the Ducks won't play again until next Wednesday, when they open a four-game western Canada road trip in Calgary. Take Anaheim (10*). | |||||||
02-11-22 | Magic v. Jazz UNDER 222.5 | 99-114 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Orlando and Utah at 9:10 pm et on Friday. With a four-game winning streak intact and fresh off a 26-point rout of the Warriors two nights ago, I see this as a game we see the Jazz 'manage' on Friday night at home against the lowly Magic. Orlando checks in off a blowout win in Portland. Keep in mind, that victory came after the Blazers dealt C.J. McCollum among others earlier in the day. While the Magic scored 113 points in that victory, they're just a game removed from an 83-point effort against the Celtics. I expect them to have a tough time scoring against a Jazz squad that is locked in defensively, having held their last three opponents to 41%, 38% and 36% shooting. Note that the first meeting between these two teams this season totalled only 207 points in an upset victory by the Magic in Orlando. That game saw a closing total of 211 points. I simply feel too much of an adjustment has been made here. Take the under (9*). | |||||||
02-11-22 | Jets v. Stars -150 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas over Winnipeg at 8:35 pm et on Friday. The Jets returned from the break with a stunning 2-0 victory over the Minnesota Wild on home ice on Tuesday. That victory had more to do with a sluggish effort from the Wild than anything else. Things should be much tougher for the Jets on Friday as they head to Dallas to face a healthy Stars squad that is well positioned to go on a second half run. Dallas posted a 4-3 win over Nashville two nights ago, improving to 16-7 on home ice this season. The Stars have averaged an impressive 3.6 goals per game here in Dallas, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.9 goals. The Jets on the other hand, are without a number of key contributors, most notably Pierre-Luc Dubois, who was added to the Covid list coming out of the break. Keep in mind, this is a Jets squad that averages a woeful 2.5 goals per game on the road, where it has been outscored by 0.7 goals on average. We actually won with Winnipeg in the first meeting between these two teams this season, but that was on home ice. The Jets haven't tasted victory here in Dallas since way back in February of 2018. Take Dallas (8*). | |||||||
02-11-22 | FC Koln v. RB Leipzig -224 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on RB Leipzig over FC Koln at 2:30 pm et on Friday. We're dealing with a fairly steep price here but I believe it could be even higher. Leipzig is coming off a disappointing but not all that unexpected 3-2 loss away at Bayern Munich earlier this week. What is a surprise is the fact that it is currently looking up at today's opponent, FC Koln in the Bundesliga table. Koln has already matched last season's win total with eight and we're only in mid-February. It will face an uphill battle on Friday, however, noting that Leipzig has secured eight of its nine wins on its home pitch, not to mention the fact that Koln will be without one of its top offensive threats in Domenico Modeste. That absence is certainly notable when you consider Modeste has contributed 14 goals this season, with many of them coming at critical moments. Who will be there to pick up the slack and step up on Friday? I'm not even sure Steffen Baumgart has the answer. This might have to be a match where Koln simply takes its medicine and yields three points to a Leipzig club whose best football is still ahead of it. Take RB Leipzig (4*). | |||||||
02-10-22 | Bucks +4 v. Suns | Top | 107-131 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Game of the Year. My selection is on Milwaukee plus the points over Phoenix at 10 pm et on Thursday. The Bucks are playing as well as any team in the league right now, winners of four straight games both SU and ATS, scoring 130+ points in each of their last three contests. Ordinarily, I might look to fade a team on such a run but not in this spot as Milwaukee wraps up its four-game road trip with a game it will have no difficulty getting up for against the team in defeated in last year's NBA Finals - the Phoenix Suns. The Suns are playing well. They've lost just one game going all the way back to January 11th. With that being said, they're just an even 5-5 ATS over their last 10 games. The Bucks might be without Grayson Allen for this game after he suffered a hip injury but the Suns continue to play on without underrated contributor Cam Payne as well. While the Bucks might be a little road weary at the end of this trip, the Suns will be playing their fifth game in the last eight nights, in five different cities. Phoenix is obviously one of the best teams in the league - at times THE best team in the league this season. However, the Bucks found a way to make the Suns look very ordinary in reeling off four straight wins (after falling behind 2-0) in last year's Finals. Phoenix has outscored its opponents by an average margin of 7.6 points this season. However, it has only outscored opponents by 4.4 points on average when coming off three or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons. The Bucks have been an excellent 'positive momentum' play having averaged 120.2 points per game, outscoring opponents by an average of 9.9 points when coming off consecutive double-digit victories over the last three seasons (48-game sample size). Take Milwaukee (10*). | |||||||
02-10-22 | Clippers +7 v. Mavs | 105-112 | Push | 0 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Phoenix at 8:40 pm et on Thursday. The Clippers limp into this game off back-to-back losses but there's no need to push the panic button as those two losses came against two of the league's best teams in the Bucks and Grizzlies. L.A. has now dropped the cash in four straight games but I believe that's affording us a very generous helping of points with it as it heads to Dallas to face the surging Mavs on Thursday. Dallas has won three games in a row, both SU and ATS, including a 30-point rout of the Pistons last time out. Here, we'll note that Jason Kidd has not fared well in this situation over the course of his head coaching career, with his teams going 16-33 ATS when coming off three or more consecutive wins, outscored by an average of 4.4 points in that situation. The Clippers meanwhile, are 36-21 ATS when playing on the road off an ATS loss over the last three seasons. Better still, they're 9-1 ATS when playing on the road after losing four of their last five games ATS over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average of 15.5 points in that situation. This will be the 13th meeting between these two teams going back to the start of last season. I believe the Mavs are simply laying too many points in this spot. Take Los Angeles (9*). | |||||||
02-10-22 | Penguins v. Senators UNDER 6 | Top | 2-0 | Win | 112 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
NHL Revenge Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Ottawa at 7 pm et on Thursday. The Penguins have seen their last three games go 'over' the total while the Sens have come out of the break with back-to-back 'over' results, winning both games against the Devilsi and Hurricanes. Ottawa scored four goals in each of those contests but I'm not convinced their recent offensive surge is sustainable. Keep in mind, the Sens still average just 2.8 goals per game on home ice this season. Interestingly, the 'under' has gone a perfect 5-0 with the Sens coming off a home game in which both teams scored 3+ goals this season, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 4.6 goals. The 'under' is also 11-2 with Ottawa following up a game that totalled seven goals or more this season, leading to an average total of just 5.0 goals in that spot. Finally, I'll point out that the 'under' is 21-11 when the Sens play at home seeking revenge for a loss by two goals or more against an opponent, which is the case here after dropping a 6-4 decision in Pittsburgh on January 20th (we won with the 'over' in that game). The Penguins have been producing plenty of goals but it's worth noting that they allow only 2.4 goals per game on the road this season. They'll be off the next two days before playing again on Sunday and that should certainly help with their focus against a very manageable opponent here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
02-10-22 | Hofstra v. Drexel -1 | Top | 83-73 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
CAA Game of the Year. My selection is on Drexel minus the points over Hofstra at 7 pm et on Thursday. These two teams have been polar opposites in the luck department this season and as a result Hofstra checks in with the better overall record and a one-game edge in the Colonial Athletic Association. In fact, Hofstra ranks 106th in the country in luck rating - a metric developed by KenPom - while Drexel checks in 291st. With that being said, both teams come in off consecutive wins. I believe Drexel is better positioned to keep it going on Thursday, however, as it looks to avenge an earlier three-point loss at Hofstra back on January 17th. Note that the Dragons are 13-5 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 8.7 points on average. Better still, they're 10-2 ATS when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring foes by an average margin of 4.6 points in that spot. Note that Hofstra gets to the free throw line five fewer times per game on the road than Drexel does at home, while also averaging one less made three-pointer per contest on two more attempts. Off consecutive emotional wins at home (one came in overtime against James Madison and the other by two points against UNC-Wilmington), I look for Hofstra to come up short on the road on Thursday. Take Drexel (10*). | |||||||
02-09-22 | Warriors v. Jazz -3 | Top | 85-111 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Utah minus the points over Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Jazz have reeled off three straight wins on their current homestand but can't afford to let their guard down after they had lost 11 of their previous 13 contests. The Warriors, on the other hand, can afford to 'manage' things on a game-to-game basis and will once again sit Klay Thompson for this front half of a back-to-back set at the Jazz and back home against the Knicks. Remember, one week ago tonight the Warriors rested Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins, essentially 'punting' the game against the Spurs but San Antonio was extremely forgiving, coughing up a 15-point fourth quarter lead in a four-point loss. I don't expect the Jazz to be nearly as forgiving on Wednesday. Utah has been one of the most streaky teams in the league from an ATS perspective in recent years and checks into this one having gone 18-7 ATS when coming off three or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 13.3 points on average in that spot. The Jazz have undoubtedly had this game circled on their calendar since dropping a tough 94-92 decision in San Francisco back on January 23rd. Utah could have certainly used Donovan Mitchell in that game. In two games since returning from a concussion, Mitchell has contributed 59 points, 10 rebounds and 12 assists in just 56 minutes of action. The Warriors have actually taken both previous meetings in this series this season and four in a row going back to last season. That sort of run of success in this series hasn't been common, however. You would have to go back to 2017 to find the last time Golden State won five straight matchups against the Jazz, and that included a four-game series sweep in the playoffs. Look for Utah to get back at the Warriors on Wednesday. Take Utah (10*). | |||||||
02-09-22 | Golden Knights v. Flames -130 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
NHL Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Calgary over Vegas at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Flames have dropped four straight meetings with the Golden Knights, including a 3-2 loss in Las Vegas earlier this season. I look for them to snap that series skid on Wednesday night. The Flames come out of the break riding a three-game winning streak. Of course, the Knights have also won three games in a row following last night's 4-0 drubbing of the Oilers in Edmonton. I'm high on Calgary heading down the stretch, noting that it sits seven points back of the first-place Knights in the Pacific Division but has five games in hand. There's certainly a path for Calgary to move up at least a spot or two in the division pecking order and it starts with taking two points against the division-leading Knights on Wednesday. Calgary is just 7-8 on home ice this season yet has managed to outscore opponents by an average margin of 0.7 goals, allowing just 2.2 goals per contest here at the Saddledome. Here, we'll note that the Knights have allowed 3.7 goals per game when coming off consecutive wins this season (14-game sample size), as is the case here. Meanwhile, the Flames have been at their best when well-rested in recent years, averaging 4.1 goals per game and outscoring opponents by 0.9 goals on average when playing for the third time (or less) in a 10-day span over the last three seasons, which is also the situation here. Take Calgary (10*). | |||||||
02-09-22 | High Point v. Presbyterian UNDER 128 | Top | 79-70 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
CBB Big South Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between High Point and Presbyterian at 7 pm et on Wednesday. These two teams are coming off very different results last time out as High Point outlasted UNC-Asheville by a 91-83 score in overtime while Presbyterian fell by a 74-69 score at Hampton. That most recent game was at home for High Point. It has struggled mightily on the road, winning just once in 10 tries. Presbyterian has proven to be a very frustrating team to play against, particularly on this floor, where it has held opponents to just 50 field goal attempts per game. For its part, High Point has had a tough time getting into any sort of rhythm on the road, getting off just 51 field goal attempts per contest. The Panthers also get to the free throw line five times less than their season average away from home. With all of that being said, High Point has also done a nice job of controlling the tempo on the road, giving up just 51 field goal attempts per game. In other words, I'm not expecting a free-flowing affair here. Presbyterian is actually coming off consecutive 'over' results - the first time we've seen that since December 6th and 12th. High Point's most recent game also found its way 'over' the total. We haven't seen consecutive games involving the Panthers go 'over' the total since December 29th and 31st with those two games coming against Michigan State and Kentucky (High Point allowed 81 and 92 points in those two games). Presbyterian has allowed just 57.7 points per game when playing at home off a loss by six points or less over the last two seasons (six-game sample size), as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 16-6 with High Point having lost two of its last three games over the last two seasons (22-game sample size). Take the under (10*). | |||||||
02-08-22 | Pistons v. Mavs OVER 213.5 | Top | 86-116 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday. I don't think a lot of bettors are rushing to back the 'over' in this low-key Tuesday non-conference affair. With that being said, I love the way the situation sets up. The Mavs have let their defense do the talking in their last two games, holding the 76ers and Hawks under 100 points in fairly comfortable victories. Here, I think Dallas will need its offense to do some of the heavy-lifting, noting that the Pistons have actually scored over 100 points in nine of their last 10 games, employing an up-tempo style, getting off 90+ field goal attempts in each of their last three games. Keep in mind, Detroit scored 117 and 105 points in a pair of matchups with Dallas last year with both of those contests flying 'over' the total. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 21-11 with Detroit coming off a game in which it scored 105 points or less this season, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of 219.1 points. Better still, the 'over' is 12-4 with the Pistons off consecutive games scoring 105 points or less, leading to an average total of 220.9 points. As for the Mavs, the 'over' is a long-term 70-45 when they come off consecutive home victories, which is also the case tonight. The Mavs haven't been forced to play on consecutive nights since January 29th and 30th and inexplicably won't do so against until the third week of March. In other words, there's no need for them to 'manage' this game in the same way the Warriors did last night (as I noted in my analysis of that play on the GS-OKC 'under'). While Dallas is missing some key contributors, including Kristaps Porzingis and Tim Hardaway Jr., it has still managed to score more than 100 points in six straight games. It's worth mentioning that the Mavs are also without one of their best defensive players in Maxi Kleber. The Pistons aren't slowing anyone down these days, allowing over 100 points in 12 consecutive contests and will be hard-pressed to improve on last year's two performances against Dallas in which they gave up 127 and 115 points. Finally, I'll note that the 'over' is 4-1 with the Pistons playing on the road off consecutive 'under' results this season. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
02-08-22 | Wild v. Jets OVER 6 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -118 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
NHL Central Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Winnipeg at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. We're generally much more interested in playing 'overs' rather than 'unders' in games involving the Minnesota Wild and that's the case on Tuesday as well. Minnesota headed into the All-Star break off an 'under' result, securing a 5-0 win in Chicago last week. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 26-14 with the Wild coming off an 'under' result over the last two seasons with that situation producing an average total of 6.6 goals. There are a number of key trends supporting the 'over' when it comes to the Wild - not surprisingly - perhaps most notable is the fact that the 'over' is 10-2 when they face a division opponent this season, with those contests totalling an average of 7.7 goals. That includes a pair of matchups against the Jets that reached 11 and eight goals, with the Wild prevailing in both contests. The Jets have been scuffling along and will be without one of their best players up front in Pierre-Luc Dubois, who has landed on the Covid list. Perhaps more concerning is the fact that the Jets continue to play without 3-4 regulars on the blue line. That certainly opens the door for an explosive Wild offense that averages 4.5 goals per game after scoring three or more goals in four consecutive games this season, as is the case here. The question becomes whether the Jets can contribute enough offensively to help this one 'over' the total. I'm confident they can. Note that Winnipeg averages 3.3 goals per game at home this season. Guys like Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele and Blake Wheeler are obviously going to need to step up and produce in Dubois' absence but they're all capable. I like the fact that the Wild are turning to Kaapo Kahkonen in goal for this one. He performed admirably in place of an injured Cam Talbot (who took part in the All-Star Game over the weekend) in early January but has struggled of late, allowing six goals in his last two starts (both of those games totalled seven goals) while also giving up one goal on six shots in the third period in relief of Talbot against the lowly Canadiens on January 24th. The Jets are in desperate need of wins if they are to have any hope of rallying to earn a playoff berth in the crowded Western Conference. In order to take anything away from this one, they'll likely have to score 3-4 goals. Note that the 'over' is 17-7 with the Jets coming off a game that totalled four goals or less over the last two seasons, which is the case here, resulting in an average total of 6.6 goals. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
02-08-22 | Eastern Michigan v. Buffalo OVER 148.5 | Top | 64-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
CBB MAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Eastern Michigan and Buffalo at 7 pm et on Tuesday. Buffalo enters this game off consecutive 'under' results. I expect that streak to be short-lived, however. No team has struggled more to control tempo (perhaps I should word that another way given the Bulls actually prefer to play at a fast pace), as Buffalo has allowed opponents to get off an incredible 68 field goal attempts per game here at home this season. Not surprisingly, Bulls home games have averaged north of 149 points per contest. Eastern Michigan doesn't operate at a blazing fast pace but it has picked it up after a couple of dismal campaigns, averaging just over 71 points per game this season. The Eagles are going to have to keep pace with the Bulls if they want to snap their current three-game skid on Tuesday. Note that Eastern Michigan has been held to 71 points or less in three straight games but this is a team that has scored 90+ points on three previous occasions this season and an arguably worse Eagles squad did manage to score 77 points (in a game that totalled 169) points in last year's meeting here in Buffalo. As I mentioned, the Bulls are coming off consecutive relatively low-scoring affairs. Keep in mind, the first of those two games came against one of the MAC's better teams in Ohio and the other against one of the conference's worst squads in Central Michigan. I look for a big bust-out performance from the Buffalo offense, noting that it averages just shy of 80 points per game at home this season, where it averages 28 three-point attempts per game (two more than its season average) and gets to the free throw line an average of 22 times per contest (four above its season average). EMU has allowed 80+ points in four of its last five games and has given up 90 or more points on three previous occasions this season. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 8-1 with Eastern Michigan coming off consecutive double-digit losses against conference opponents over the last three seasons with that spot producing an average total of 150.9 points. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
02-07-22 | Warriors v. Thunder UNDER 212 | Top | 110-98 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Oklahoma City at 8:10 pm et on Monday. This is a game that Golden State can and likely will 'manage' as it begins a stretch of three games in four nights (in three different cities) between now and Thursday. The Warriors have been lighting it up offensively but actually check in having allowed consecutive opponents to shoot better than 50% from the field. Considering they've only allowed four opponents to shoot better than 50% all season, that's notable. What better opponent to button things up defensively against than Oklahoma City? The Thunder have been held under 100 points in five of their last nine games overall and average just a shade over the century mark in terms of points per game at home this season. Oklahoma City is at home playing its third game in four nights tonight and doing so without a number of key contributors with the most notable being Shae Gilgeous-Alexander. Lu Dort remains questionable to play due to a nasal fracture but it does sound more likely that he'll be able to go. Nevertheless, the Warriors have held the Thunder to just 98 and 82 points in two previous meetings this season. In fact, they've held the Thunder under 100 points in four straight meetings in this series. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 27-14 with Golden State in the role of favorite this season and 32-15 in its last 47 games when playing on the road off a double-digit win over a division opponent. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 30-17 when the Thunder seek revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
02-07-22 | Hurricanes v. Maple Leafs OVER 6 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
NHL Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Carolina and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The Hurricanes were struggling offensively heading into the All-Star break but that might have had something to do with a tough schedule that saw them play six games in 10 days. I expect them to come out re-energized out of the break, noting that the 'over' is a perfect 7-0 when they play five or less games in a 14-day span over the last two seasons, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 9.0 goals. The Leafs come out of the break on the heels of five straight wins. That's notable as they've gone 1-5 when coming off five or more consecutive victories over the last two seasons, allowing an average of 3.8 goals in that situation. Tonight, the Leafs will give the start to backup goaltender Petr Mrazek. Note that Mrazek has made just two home starts this season, with both of those games totalling nine goals against the Red Wings and Blackhawks. The last two meetings between these two teams in Toronto have totalled nine and 14 goals. Expect another relatively high-scoring affair on Monday. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
02-07-22 | NC-Wilmington v. Hofstra OVER 145 | Top | 71-73 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
CBB Colonial Athletic Association Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between N.C. Wilmington and Hofstra at 5 pm et on Monday. This will be the second meeting between these two teams in as many weeks after Wilmington prevailed by a 78-72 score at home on January 29th. The Seahawks are the surprising leaders in the CAA right now with head coach Takayo Siddle squeezing every last drop out of the talent he has at hand. As expected, Wilmington is playing fast and comes into this game off a 92-point explosion against William and Mary last time out. Of course, going up-tempo plays right into the hands of Hofstra, which checks in ranked 112th in adjusted tempo (according to KenPom). Aaron Estrada has absolutely gone off for the Pride, most recently pouring in 35 points in Saturday's overtime win over James Madison. The Pride have scored 70+ points in six of their last seven games and come into this one on the heels of three straight 'over' results. Note that in that first meeting with Wilmington, the Pride knocked down only three of 18 three-point attempts. Considering they shoot 10-of-28 from beyond the arc here at home, I would expect a vast improvement over that performance here. Note that the Seahawks have held just one conference opponent to fewer than 70 points on the road this season, that being a highly-disappointing Northeastern squad in a game that still found its way 'over' the total. The 'over' has cashed in five of Wilmington's last seven games overall. Note that the second meeting between these two teams has been higher scoring than the first in each of the last three years in this series. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
02-06-22 | Pacers +5.5 v. Cavs | Top | 85-98 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
NBA Central Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Indiana plus the points over Cleveland at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. | |||||||
02-06-22 | Washington v. Stanford -4.5 | 69-87 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Stanford minus the points over Washington at 4 pm et on Sunday. I like the way this spot sets up for Stanford as it comes off a disappointing home loss against Washington State and hosts a Washington squad fresh off three straight wins, both SU and ATS, including an upset win at Cal last time out. Note that the Huskies have gone winless in two previous tries coming off a road win this season, failing to cover the spread in both of those games as well. Meanwhile, Stanford is a solid 88-63 ATS after losing four or five of its last six games ATS, as is the case here. The Cardinal improve on their terrific 9-2 home record here. Take Stanford (8*). | |||||||
02-06-22 | Akron v. Miami-OH +3.5 | 71-59 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami-Ohio plus the points over Akron at 4 pm et on Sunday. It's certainly been a rough ride for the Redhawks of Miami-Ohio lately as they've lost four games in a row SU and nine straight ATS entering Sunday's rematch with Akron (the Zips took Friday's meeting by a 66-55 score at home). Note that Akron has closed as a road favorite just once previously this season, winning that game by just four points as a 12.5-point favorite against Central Michigan. Despite their recent struggles, the Redhawks are still a winning team at home this season at 6-5 SU. The Zips, meanwhile, are 4-5 SU and ATS on the road. The Redhawks actually got off seven more field goal attempts than the Zips on Friday but Akron ultimately held a 17-7 edge in terms of free throw attempts and shot 50% from the field in the win. Take Miami-Ohio (7*). | |||||||
02-06-22 | Pistons +12 v. Wolves | 105-118 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Minnesota at 3:40 pm et on Sunday. These two teams are clearly heading in opposite directions right now with the Pistons losers of three games in a row (1-2 ATS) and the T'Wolves having won three straight (3-0 ATS) including a 128-117 win in Detroit on Thursday. Keep in mind, that meeting was closer than the final score indicated as the Pistons were actually within five points with less than a minute remaining. Here, we'll note that Detroit checks in a highly-profitable 26-13 ATS off three or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons while Minnesota is 11-23 ATS at home against non-conference opponents over the last three seasons and 25-40 ATS in their last 65 games following a win. Take Detroit (9*). | |||||||
02-06-22 | AFC v. NFC OVER 62.5 | 41-35 | Win | 100 | 28 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between the AFC and NFC at 3 pm et on Saturday. I rarely get involved in the Pro Bowl as there doesn't tend to be any sort of edge to be found. This year I'm willing to make an exception, however. The NFL regularly adjusts the rules for the Pro Bowl and this year is no different. Those rule adjustments are generally made to favor the offenses and improve player safety, while also speeding the game up to provide a more entertaining 'All-Star Game' experience for the fans. Among the changes include forcing the defenses to use a 4-3 alignment for the entire game, limiting the number of defensive backs on the field. That certainly serves to open things up for the aerial attacks and creates a number of mismatches for the tight ends in particular as they often end up matched up against linebackers with little coverage ability. There is of course no blitzing allowed, serving to provide mostly clean pockets for the quarterbacks all afternoon long. We'll also see a two-minute warning in each quarter along with a change of possession at the end of each quarter, forcing the teams to employ an aggressive offensive gameplan at the end of each quarter, much like we're accustomed to seeing at the end of the first half. In another interesting quirk, the goalposts are just 14-feed wide rather than the standard 18-feet, six inches. While that leads to more difficult field goals for the kickers, it also lends itself to more aggressive play-calling, perhaps leading to more sevens on the board rather than threes. Some of these changes were made perhaps to improve the appeal of the game after a string of three consecutive dull, low-scoring games from 2017 through 2019. Last year's Pro Bowl was cancelled due to Covid-19 but the last time we saw some of these rules in place in the 2020 edition, a total of 71 points were scored in an relatively entertaining affair. Expect more of the same here. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
02-06-22 | Wisc-Milwaukee +10.5 v. Cleveland State | 71-84 | Loss | -111 | 3 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Wisconsin-Milwaukee plus the points over Cleveland State at 3 pm et on Sunday. Milwaukee enters this game on the heels of four straight losses, both SU and ATS, with all four of those setbacks coming by double-digit margins. Keep in mind, their previous season-high in terms of consecutive double-digit losses was three. The schedule obviously plays a role and here Milwaukee plays its fourth consecutive Horizon League road game. Needless to say, the Panthers will have no trouble getting up for Cleveland State - one of the best teams in the conference. Here, we'll note that the Vikings are a miserable 1-7 ATS after winning two of their last three games ATS this season, as is the case here. They're also 4-14 ATS when coming off a game in which they shot 55% or better from the field, also the situation here after their blowout win over Wisconsin-Green Bay on Friday. Take Wisconsin-Milwaukee (8*). | |||||||
02-06-22 | Marist +4.5 v. St. Peter's | 50-66 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Marist plus the points over St. Peter's at 2 pm et on Sunday. The Marist Red Foxes check into this game off four consecutive losses, both SU and ATS but I'm confident we'll see them give St. Peter's a serious run on Sunday afternoon. The Peacocks easily dispatched Quinnipiac here at home on Friday - their fourth straight ATS victory. Here, they'll have their hands full with a Marist squad that has gone 15-6 ATS when coming off a road loss over the last three seasons while St. Peter's owns a woeful 34-53 ATS mark when playing consecutive home games. While Marist dropped the first meeting between these two teams in late January, it hasn't lost consecutive matchups with St. Peter's since 2019-20. Take Marist (9*). | |||||||
02-06-22 | Green Bay +10 v. IUPU Ft Wayne | 55-71 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Wisconsin-Green Bay plus the points over IUPU-Fort Wayne at 2 pm et on Sunday. Wisconsin-Green Bay enters this game off four consecutive losses - all on the road - but I expect it to hang tough in Fort Wayne on Sunday afternoon, noting that it has gone a perfect 6-0 ATS when coming off four or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons. Green Bay 'only' lost by 16 points against a superior Cleveland State squad on the road last time out, despite allowing the Vikings to shoot a blistering 63.5% from the field. It won't be difficult for Green Bay to get up for this one but I think it will be for Fort Wayne, which checks in off a double-digit home win over Wisconsin-Milwaukee on Friday. Take Wisconsin-Green Bay (8*). | |||||||
02-06-22 | Providence v. Georgetown +7 | Top | 71-52 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 9 m | Show |
Big East Game of the Month. My selection is on Georgetown plus the points over Providence at 12 noon et on Sunday. Providence has now won six consecutive games, including an upset victory at St. John's last time out. Since defeating Georgetown by eight points (but failing to cover) on January 20th, the Friars have been involved in four straight highly-contested games against Butler, Xavier, Marquette and St. John's. It's going to be very difficult for Ed Cooley's team to avoid a letdown here. Meanwhile, the Hoyas haven't won a game since December 15th against Howard. They do check in 3-2-1 ATS over their last six games though and catch the Friars laying points on the road for the first time this season. Take Georgetown (10*). | |||||||
02-05-22 | Thunder v. Kings OVER 216.5 | Top | 103-113 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Oklahoma City and Sacramento at 10:10 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the 'over' in the Thunder's 96-93 win in Portland. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here, however. The pace was there but neither the Thunder or Blazers shot well in last night's game. In fact, both teams shot sub-40% from the field. I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday. The Thunder are going to need to perform better offensively if they want to secure a third straight win as the Kings have scored 112 and 114 points over their last two games, most recently shooting north of 52% in a tough road game at Golden State on Thursday (we won with the 'over' in that game). On the flip side, the Kings have allowed at least 103 points in 18 consecutive games. Even with the Thunder's flaws offensively (noting they're without Shae Gilgeous-Alexander), they should benefit from facing a Sacramento squad that allows just under 112 points per game at home this season. Considering Kings home games have averaged 221.6 total points this season and four meetings between these two teams here since the start of 2020 have totalled 220, 224, 228 and 228 points, I believe this total will prove too low. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
02-05-22 | Bucks v. Blazers OVER 227.5 | 137-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the 'over' in the Blazers loss at home against the Thunder last night. The pace was absolutely there, however, noting that Portland got off a whopping 101 field goal attempts in that contest (while allowing 87). The Blazers know they're going to have to step it up offensively tonight if they want to have any chance of keeping up with the Bucks. Portland has now been held under 100 points in three consecutive games but still averages 111 points per game at home this season (four points per game above its season average). Keep in mind, in two meetings between these teams last season, the Bucks hung 134 and 127 points on the board. After a stretch that saw it held to under 100 points in four of eight games, the Bucks have now reached the century mark in three straight. Note that the 'over' has gone 38-23 and the Bucks have averaged 115.9 points per game when playing on the road off an 'under' result over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 18-6 with the Blazers coming off consecutive 'under' results over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an average total of 231.6 points, even including last night's low-scoring result. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
02-05-22 | Western Illinois v. UMKC | 82-91 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on UMKC minus the points over Western Illinois at 8 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'over' in Western Illinois' most recent game - a stunning upset win on the road against Oral Roberts on Thursday. Here, I suspect it will be in tough trying to replicate that performance against a surging UMKC squad on Saturday night. Western Illinois has had no ability whatsoever to control the tempo, or at least keep it in check on the road this season. Nor has it had any interest in doing so. That spells trouble here, though, as it faces a UMKC team that is just as comfortable playing an up-tempo game at home, where it averages just shy of 79 points per game on north of 47% shooting. UMKC enters this game having won five of its last six overall, going 4-2 ATS over that stretch. That includes an eight-point victory at Western Illinois earlier this week. The Roos won that game despite a 10-point disparity in favor of the Leathernecks at the free throw line. While Western Illinois would love go get some quick revenge here, it will be in tough as the Roos have done a tremendous job of controlling the tempo of opponents here at home, allowing only 49 field goal attempts per contest. Add in the letdown factor with the Leathernecks having shot well above their season average in that most recent game against Oral Roberts and I like the value being offered with UMKC at a virtual pk'em price here. Take UMKC (8*). | |||||||
02-05-22 | UNLV v. Utah State UNDER 139 | 75-90 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between UNLV and Utah State at 6 pm et on Saturday. Utah State got off an uncharacteristically-high 67 field goal attempts in its most recent game - a 78-62 rout of lowly San Jose State on Thursday. Off that 'over' result, we'll go the other way and back the 'under' on Saturday, noting that the 'under' has cashed on both occasions that situation has come up in conference play involving the Aggies this season. Utah State enters this game having scored 70+ points in four straight games. While UNLV isn't known for its defense, it has actually held opponents to a slightly slower pace on the road compared to at home this season, giving up fewer field goal and free throw attempts per game. The Rebels don't play at a particularly fast pace themselves, checking in 181st in the nation in adjusted tempo (according to KenPom). They've gotten off 60+ field goal attempts in four of nine Mountain West games this season but scored more than 55 points in just two of those contests, with those coming against two of the conference's weakest teams in New Mexico and San Jose State. Utah State has not surprisingly done a terrific job of defending here at home this season, holding opponents to just 18 three-point attempts per game (five below their season average allowed) and 15 free throw attempts per contest. Note that the 'under' is 15-6 with Utah State coming off consecutive double-digit wins over the last three seasons, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of just 132.5 points. Take the under (9*). | |||||||
02-05-22 | Sacred Heart v. St Francis NY OVER 142.5 | Top | 66-62 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
CBB Northeast Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Sacred Heart and St. Francis (NY) at 4 pm et on Saturday. This is a rematch of a game between these two teams on January 27th. St. Francis took that meeting by a 71-66 score in a game that stayed 'under' the closing total. As a result we're dealing with a slightly lower total here, but I'm not sure the move is warranted. That game was played at a relatively slow pace with both teams hoisting up sub-60 field goal attempts and a combined 26 trips to the free throw line. I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday. Sacred Heart hasn't had a hope of slowing down opponents on the road, particularly of late. It has yielded 62, 69, 63 and 65 field goal attempts in four road games since New Year's Eve and while St. Francis (NY) doesn't play at all that quick of a pace, it does play considerably faster at home and I expect it to be afforded plenty of good looks in this one. Note that opponents are shooting a ridiculous 49.3% against Sacred Heart in its road games this season, where it allows just shy of 80 points per game. I do think that Sacred Heart can stay competitive in this one, however. It shot a miserable 5-of-16 from beyond the arc in that first meeting this season but that could be considered an anomaly as the Pioneers average nine made threes per game on the season, with that average holding steady on the road. Noting that St. Francis sends opponents to the free throw line 19 times per game on average, I would also anticipate Sacred Heart improving on its 10 free throw attempts in the first matchup. When these two teams last played on this floor last February they combined to score 170 points in a wild 88-82 Sacred Heart victory. That was the back half of a two-game set with the front-end resulting in 164 total points. Noting that both teams bring plenty of returning experience to the table, I'm anticipating another relatively high-scoring affair on Saturday afternoon. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
02-04-22 | Thunder v. Blazers OVER 214 | Top | 96-93 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
NBA Northwest Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Oklahoma City and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Friday. These two teams just met on Monday night in Oklahoma City with the Thunder rolling to a 98-81 victory - one of the lowest-scoring games for both teams this season. I expect a much different story to unfold on Friday night in Portland, however. Oklahoma City continues to play on without Shae Gilgeous-Alexander among others, but it does bring some confidence to the table off consecutive wins over the Blazers and Mavs. While the Thunder did hold Portland to just 81 points earlier this week, they've proven to be a considerably weaker defensive team on the road, where they allow 2.3 points per game above their season average and have had no luck controlling tempo, allowing opponents to get off an average of 93 field goal attempts per game away from home. In Monday's matchup, Portland knocked down just 7-of-38 three-point attempts and got to the free throw line only eight times. Perhaps that sleepy performance shouldn't have come as a surprise as it was playing the second of back-to-backs after a wild 130-116 loss in Chicago the night previous. A return home should help the Blazers cause, noting they average 3.5 points per game above their season average and make good on an average of 15 threes while getting to the free throw line 23 times per contest. Those are far more encouraging numbers than what we saw in OKC on Monday. The Thunder are undermanned right now but I'm confident guys like Lu Dort, Tre Mann and Josh Giddey can continue to pick up the slack. While the Blazers have held consecutive opponents under 100 points, that could be chalked up as an anomaly as they had given up over 100 points in 10 of their previous 11 games. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 18-5 with the Blazers coming off consecutive 'under' results over the last two seasons, with that spot producing an average of 233.4 points. The 'over' is also 24-11 with Portland seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent as a favorite over the last three seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 231.2 points. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
02-04-22 | Nets v. Jazz OVER 228.5 | 102-125 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Brooklyn and Utah at 9:10 pm et on Friday. The Nets are coming off an ugly loss in Sacramento two nights ago as their woes continued on their current trip, which has seen them go 0-3 so far, part of a six-game skid overall. In that loss, James Harden shot 2-of-11 from the field and didn't get to the free throw line a single time. For his part, Kyrie Irving scored only 14 points. It was a generally lackadaisical offensive effort from Brooklyn, which hoisted up only 25 three-point attempts (it averages 32 attempts per game on the road this season) and got to the charity stripe just 14 times (it averages 21 attempts per game on the road this season). The Nets know they'll need to go on the attack and ramp up their offensive production if they want to have any hope of tasting victory on Friday. That's because their defense has incredibly allowed 100 points or more in 27 straight games. While the offense, or lack thereof, has been taking a lot of the heat lately, Brooklyn hasn't played a lick of defense on this trip (you could make the argument it held up ok at Golden State - notably without James Harden in the lineup), allowing 110, 121 and 112 points. Utah has had its share of struggles lately as well but snapped a five-game losing streak with a 108-104 win over Denver two nights ago and now it is expected to get Donovan Mitchell back after he missed time due to a concussion. After being held under 100 points in four of eight games, the Jazz have now put up 109, 106 and 108 points over their last three contests and I look for them to improve on those numbers here. Last time out against Denver, Utah scored 108 points despite shooting an ugly 7-of-29 from beyond the arc (it averages 15 made threes per game at home this season). Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 15-5 with the Nets coming off an outright loss as a road favorite over the last three seasons, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of 235.8 points. The 'over' is 12-2 with the Jazz playing at home off a win this season, leading to an average total of 232.8 points scored in that situation. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
02-04-22 | Princeton v. Cornell OVER 157.5 | Top | 83-88 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
CBB Ivy League Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Princeton and Cornell at 7 pm et on Friday. The first meeting between these two teams this season stayed comfortably 'under' the total as Princeton prevailed by a 72-70 score at home. There were some notable takeaways from that game. Cornell got all the looks it wanted but simply couldn't knock down enough shots, noting that it shot 43% from the field on 62 attempts. It's worth mentioning that the Big Red were playing their second game in as many days on that occasion. Here, we'll see a rested Big Red bunch having not played since last Sunday (in typical Ivy League scheduling). As further illustration to how many points Cornell left on the table in that first meeting, it made just 9-of-26 three-point attempts and got to the free throw line an uncharacteristically-low nine times (but did make nine of those freebies). The Big Red check in an impressive seventh in the nation in adjusted tempo according to KenPom and will certainly look to dictate the pace against a very beatable Princeton defense here. On the flip side, the Tigers should be more than happy to be along for the ride in a potential track meet, noting that they've scored 70+ points in 13 consecutive games. This isn't the same fundamentally-sound Princeton defense we've been accustomed to seeing, however, as it has allowed 80, 76, 81, 73 and 80 points in five road games this season. The fact that the Tigers baited a slow Dartmouth squad (334th in adjusted tempo) into a game that totalled 164 points in their most recent road game is telling. Princeton is more than capable of shooting the lights out and I suspect it will be even more set on pushing the pace after Cornell was seemingly the more aggressive offensive side in the last meeting. It's worth noting that the Tigers were without sharp-shooter Jaelin Llewellyn in the first meeting, which certainly hampered their offense. He knocked down six threes in Princeton's most recent game - an 80-74 loss to Yale last Saturday. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
02-03-22 | Kings v. Warriors OVER 223.5 | Top | 114-126 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
NBA Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Sacramento and Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. The Warriors are absolutely rolling offensively right now. Even last time out, in a game in which they sat Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins, they still managed to post a 30+ point fourth quarter in a stunning 124-120 win over a full strength Spurs squad (we unfortunately lost with San Antonio +2.5 after playing it before the news of Curry and Wiggins' absence came out). Here, there's little reason to expect anything other than an offensive onslaught against a Kings squad playing the second of back-to-backs and for the third time in four nights, in three different cities. Note that the Kings have allowed over 100 points in 18 consecutive games. They did manage to upset the Nets at home last night, however, and should carry some confidence into this one as a result. For their part, the Warriors have scored 130, 124, 110, 122 and 124 points over their lats five games, clearly benefiting from Klay Thompson shaking off the rust, and the re-emergence of Andrew Wiggins as a go-to scorer. On the flip side, Golden State has now given up over 100 points in four straight games. This will be a rematch of a mid-December meeting between these two teams that went the way of the Warriors 113-98. Note that the 'over' is 36-23 with the Kings seeking revenge for a loss where their opponent scored 110+ points over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an average total of 234.1 points. The 'over' is also 33-18 with the Kings coming off six or seven losses in their last eight games over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of 231.0 points. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
02-03-22 | Lakers v. Clippers -154 | 110-111 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the Clippers moneyline over the Lakers at 10 pm et on Thursday. The Lakers prevailed by a 99-94 score over the Trail Blazers last night. That sets them up in poor position here, noting that they've gone a miserable 6-16 ATS after an ATS win this season, outscored by 4.5 points on average in that spot. Worse still, they're 4-16 ATS after giving up 95 points or less in their previous game over the last two seasons. The Clippers betting bandwagon was cleared after a six-point loss in Indiana to wrap up a long eight-game road trip on Monday. By all accounts, it was a successful trip as the Clips went 4-4 SU and 5-3 ATS. Los Angeles hasn't suffered consecutive ATS losses since January 13th and 15th. While it sounds like Anthony Davis will play for the Lakers on Thursday, the fact is he hasn't played in a back-to-back since mid-November. Lebron James is questionable at best to play on Thursday. Noting that the Clips are 23-11 ATS after a loss by six points or less over the last three seasons and have owned the Lakers, going a perfect 4-0 in this series since the start of last season, we'll back the home side to take this one straight-up. Take the Clippers moneyline (6*). | |||||||
02-03-22 | UCLA v. Arizona OVER 146.5 | Top | 66-76 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between UCLA and Arizona at 8 pm et on Thursday. We saw a closing total north of 150 points in the first matchup between these two teams last week. That game ultimately fizzled with just 134 points as UCLA rolled to a double-digit victory. The Wildcats followed up that loss with another unimpressive offensive showing, albeit in a double-digit win of their own over Arizona State, scoring just 67 points on 32% shooting. Keep in mind, Arizona still ranks second in the nation in adjusted tempo and 13th in adjusted offensive efficiency (both according to KenPom). I expect a strong bounce-back performance from the Wildcats offense in this one. UCLA hasn't posted monster offensive numbers away from home, but that's had a lot to do with the opposition they've faced. The Bruins simply haven't had to ramp it up offensively in order to secure road victories. Again, I expect a different story to unfold here. While the Bruins defense has been terrific, it also checks in 17th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. Here, we'll note that Arizona has averaged 82.1 points per game when coming off consecutive 'under' results over the last three seasons, as is the case here, with those games totalling an average of 148.2 points (16-game sample size). The fact that Arizona shot just 30% on a whopping 75 field goal attempts in the last meeting indicates plenty of points were left on the table in that one. Also note that the game featured a grand total of just 16 free throw attempts. Noting that last year's meeting in Tucson totalled 157 points, I'm quite comfortable playing the 'over' in this rematch. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
02-03-22 | Western Illinois v. Oral Roberts OVER 161.5 | Top | 90-85 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
CBB Summit League Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Western Illinois and Oral Roberts at 8 pm et on Thursday. I don't expect either of these teams to pump the breaks one bit in this rematch of a wild 87-86 Oral Roberts victory in January. We're talking about two teams that rank well inside the nation's top-50 in terms of adjusted tempo (according to KenPom) with neither boasting a great deal of defensive prowess. Western Illinois scored 'only' 75 points in a disappointing home loss against UMKC last time out. The Leathernecks left plenty of points on the table in that game as they turned the ball over 15 times and shot just 44% from the field. That marked the second time in their last four games that they allowed an opponent to shoot better than 56% from the field. Oral Roberts is coming off a two-game road trip that saw it score 100 and 89 points in wins over Nebraska-Omaha and Denver. While Western Illinois will pose a more difficult challenge, the Golden Eagles should be up for it. They average an incredible 87.7 points per game at home this season. That's on the strength of 13-of-31 shooting from beyond the arc. You could argue that Western Illinois was fortunate to only lose by a single point in the first meeting between these two teams this season as ORU knocked down just nine three-pointers in the game. Speaking of that contest, Western Illinois shot a woeful 40% from the field but isn't likely to shy away from pushing the pace again here, noting that it did get plenty of good looks on 64 field goal attempts, not to mention 30 free throws in that narrow loss. While this total has been adjusted by a couple of points, I don't believe it will be enough. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
02-03-22 | Wolves v. Pistons +7.5 | 128-117 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Minnesota at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. Teams don't have an easy time getting up for trip to Detroit to face the lowly Pistons. That's a big reason why Detroit has managed to hang tough at home, going 13-11 ATS, outscored by just 4.5 points on average despite dropping 16 of 24 games SU. Since the beginning of January alone, the Pistons have defeated the likes of the Spurs, Jazz, Raptors and Cavs while also taking the Nuggets down to the wire in a five-point loss. For Minnesota, the situation is compounded by the fact that it is coming off consecutive home wins over the Nuggets and Jazz. While the T'Wolves are 15-10 SU at home this season, they've gone just 11-15 on the road, outscored by 1.0 point per game along the way. Here, we'll note that they're just 17-29 ATS when coming off a win over the last two seasons, outscored by an average of 1.4 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Pistons are 25-12 ATS when coming off a home loss over the last two seasons and also 40-24 ATS after scoring 105 points or less over the same stretch, as is the case here. Take Detroit (8*). | |||||||
02-02-22 | Wizards v. 76ers -10 | Top | 106-103 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Washington at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. This one sets up nicely for the 76ers as they look to avenge a 117-98 loss in Washington on Martin Luther King Jr. Day (we won with the Wizards in that game). Washington is in the second of back-to-backs after fading late in a 14-point loss in Washington last night. The Wizards scored just 98 points in that game despite getting a season-high 20 points on 9-of-15 shooting from Montresz Harrell off the bench. Already without Bradley Beal, the Wiz also lost Thomas Bryant in that game. Bryant isn't generally a major factor but he does eat 15-20 minutes per game and did contribute 15 points in Washington's win over Philadelphia a couple of weeks ago. The 76ers managed to outlast the Grizzlies here on Monday, despite giving Joel Embiid the night off. Embiid should be back for this one. Note that while Philadelphia has scored over 100 points in seven straight games, Washington has been held under the century mark in three of its last four and things aren't likely to improve until Bradley Beal can return. Prior to that sleepy matinee affair in Washington on MLK Day, the Sixers had put up 117, 129, 114, 132, 120, 125, 127 and 141 points in their previous eight meetings with the Wizards. Note that the Wiz have given up an average of 120.8 points when playing the second of back-to-back road games over the last two seasons, as is the case here. Take Philadelphia (10*). | |||||||
02-02-22 | Oilers v. Capitals OVER 6 | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Edmonton and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the 'under' in the Oilers most recent game as they got bogged down by a Senators squad that has been playing a frustrating, stingy style of hockey lately in a 3-2 overtime loss in Ottawa on Monday. Here, I won't hesitate to go the other way as Edmonton looks to bounce back before the All-Star break in Washington on Wednesday. The Capitals rallied for a 4-3 overtime win in Pittsburgh last night and have now scored nine goals in their last two games after being held to a grand total of seven goals over their previous four contests. It may seem a little counter-intuitive, but the return of John Carlson and Dmitry Orlov on the blue line has actually bolstered their offense considerably with Orlov chipping in with two goals last night. At the back-end, the Caps remain in tough. Vitek Vanecek had been their more consistent goaltender recently but he was lost to an injury in last night's game. Ilya Samsonov filled in admirably the rest of the way but that doesn't change the fact that's he's been shaky at best lately, posting an .876 save percentage over his last four games and his aggressive style isn't likely to serve him well against the Oilers explosive offensive attack that has been further bolstered by the addition of Evander Kane. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 12-5 with the Oilers coming off an 'under' result this season, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of 7.1 goals. Meanwhile, the Caps have posted an 8-2 o/u record when coming off two or more consecutive wins this season, resulting in an average total of 6.7 goals. Interestingly, the 'over' is also 10-2 with the Caps coming off an overtime win over the last two seasons, leading to an average total of 6.7 goals. Take the over (9*). | |||||||
02-02-22 | Hartford v. New Hampshire -4.5 | Top | 64-70 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
CBB America East Game of the Year. My selection is on New Hampshire minus the points over Hartford at 7 pm et on Wednesday. These teams may be heading in opposite directions from an ATS perspective, with Hartford having gone 5-1 ATS over its last six games and New Hampshire managing just one ATS victory in its last seven, but I look for the Wildcats to right the ship and deliver a convincing victory on Wednesday. This is a rematch from a game played in Hartford back on January 19th. The Hawks prevailed by double-digits in that game, turning in a near-perfect offensive performance, shooting better than 52% from the field while turning the ball over just six times. Since then, Hartford has only managed to split its last four games but does come into this one off a 12-point victory at lowly Maine - its second consecutive win. New Hampshire has been alternating wins and losses over its last nine games and checks in off a seven-point home loss but that came against one of America East's elite teams in Stony Brook. Consecutive games against Hartford and Maryland-Baltimore County will give the Wildcats a chance to gain some traction in the conference before a return date against Stony Brook next week. They've certainly had this home game against the Hawks circled since that earlier loss in Hartford. UNH didn't bring its 'A' game on that night, shooting a miserable 37% from the field. The shots simply weren't falling but I expect a different story to unfold here in New Hampshire on Wednesday. Credit the Wildcats for managing to shoot just shy of 47% in that most recent loss to Stony Brook. It undoubtedly catches Hartford in a letdown spot here after the Hawks shot a blistering 60% from the field against a weak Maine squad last time out. Take New Hampshire (10*). | |||||||
02-02-22 | Binghamton v. Stony Brook OVER 141 | 77-61 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Binghamton and Stony Brook at 7 pm et on Wednesday. We saw 145 total points in the first meeting between these two teams this season, a game that was closer than expected with Stony Brook going on the road and winning by a 74-71 score. Stony Brook left a ton of points on the table in that game as it shot a miserable 34% from the field, knocking down only five three-pointers. Binghamton essentially bailed the Seawolves out, sending them to the free throw line a whopping 34 times. I'm confident we'll see Stony Brook stay aggressively offensively and this time around, absolutely go off against a Binghamton squad that generally doesn't play a lick of defense, ranking 268th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency (according to KenPom). Note that Stony Brook ranks 114th in the country in adjusted tempo and should relish the opportunity to get loose after facing a tough three-game stretch that included matchups against Albany, Vermont and New Hampshire. The Seawolves are averaging just shy of 75 points per game, getting off 63 field goal attempts per contest here at home this season. On the flip side, I do think Binghamton can be along for the ride offensively here. It's certainly worth noting that the oddsmakers are anticipating another reasonably competitive affair with the spread holding steady in single-digits. Stony Brook, while one of the America East's elite teams, ranks 291st in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. Binghamton averages over 72 points per game the last six times it plays on the road off a conference loss, as is the case here. It should be able to get off plenty of scoring opportunities here against a Stony Brook squad that despite forcing an average of 14 turnovers per game here at home, still gives up 60 field goal attempts per contest on average. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
02-01-22 | Providence v. St. John's OVER 146 | 86-82 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Providence and St. John's at 9 pm et on Tuesday. I expected this total to get bet up considerably in the morning hours on Tuesday but that simply hasn't been the case. Noting that the first meeting totalled 156 points earlier this season - with a load of points left on the table - I'm comfortable playing the 'over' in Tuesday's rematch. The Friars are coming off consecutive 'under' results while the Red Storm have seen each of their last three contests stay 'under' the total. That serves to give us some value with the 'over' on Tuesday. Note that St. John's still ranks top-four in the country in adjusted tempo (according to KenPom). The Red Storm will certainly look to run the Friars out of the gym in this one with Providence playing on just one day of rest after successfully avenging an earlier loss against Marquette. In that first matchup between these two teams this season St. John's shot just north of 41% from the field, including 5-of-22 from beyond the arc. It also missed nine of 17 free throw attempts. The Friars hung 83 points on the board despite shooting just 3-of-16 from three-point range. Note that the Red Storm are allowing an average of nine made threes per game here at home this season, not to mention the fact they send opponents to the free throw line an average of 20 times per contest (Providence gets to the charity stripe 21 times per game and shoots better than 73% from there). Take the over (9*). | |||||||
02-01-22 | Warriors v. Spurs +2.5 | Top | 124-120 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Golden State at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Spurs essentially 'punted' Sunday's game in Phoenix, sitting Jakob Poeltl, Dejounte Murray and Derrick White, yet still managed to give the Suns a serious run in an eventual five-point loss. Here, the shoe is on the other foot, with the Warriors in a back-to-back spot off a double-digit win in Houston. Klay Thompson won't play on Tuesday. The Warriors have played at least every other day since January 9th so it's obviously been a bit of a grueling schedule. As much as they would like to get some revenge for an earlier home loss against the Spurs, I'm not convinced we'll see them go 'flat out' in this one. While the Spurs are just 10-16 at home this season, they've actually outscored their opponents by 0.7 points on average. Having faced the Grizzlies, Bulls and Suns over their last three games, the Spurs are certainly battle-tested heading into this one. I look for them to give the Warriors all they can handle on Tuesday. Take San Antonio (10*). | |||||||
02-01-22 | Flames -115 v. Stars | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Calgary over Dallas at 8:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Stars waxed the Bruins by a 6-1 score on Sunday, catching Boston in a favorable situation as the B's were in the second of back-to-backs while Dallas was playing just its second game in five days - both at home. Here, I expect the Stars to face a much stiffer challenge as the Flames come in winners of four of their last six games. Calgary has arguably been a better team on the road than at home this season, even if it hasn't showed it in its last couple of road tilts. The Flames are 14-11 away afrom home this season where they've outscored opponents by an average margin of 0.8 goals. Dallas checks in sporting a terrific 15-6 home record but is just one game removed from a 5-0 loss here at home against the Capitals. Note that Dallas has averaged just 2.1 goals and been outscored by an average margin of 0.7 goals after winning five or six of its last seven games this season (eight-game sample size). The Stars did take the first meeting in this series by a 4-3 score in Calgary back in early November. The Flames may have been caught looking past Dallas in that spot as the Stars had dropped four games in a row heading in while Calgary had reeled off six wins in its last seven contests. Home ice has meant little in this series with the road team winning each of the lat five meetings (excluding their playoff series in the 'bubble' in Edmonton in 2020). Take Calgary (8*). | |||||||
02-01-22 | Canucks v. Predators -190 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Nashville over Vancouver at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. This will be the second meeting between these two teams in the last two weeks with the Canucks skating to a 3-1 win here in Nashville back on January 18th. The Preds were in a tough spot on that night, playing the second of back-to-backs off a loss in St. Louis the previous night - their third straight loss at the time. Here, the Preds are well-rested and playing better hockey, winners of three of their last four despite falling by a 3-2 score in Edmonton last time out. Nashville checks in 13-7 on home ice this season, outscoring opponents by 0.9 goals on average. Vancouver is coming off a 3-1 win in Chicago last night but is still just 12-14 on the road, where it averages only 2.7 goals per contest. The Canucks average just 2.1 goals per game when playing on the road after winning two of their last three games over the last two seasons (24-game sample size) and worse still, average 1.9 goals per game off a win by two goals or more this season (nine-game sample size). Nashville has averaged 3.6 goals while outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.8 goals when coming off a loss this season (17-game sample size). Take Nashville (5*). | |||||||
02-01-22 | Boston College v. Virginia -8.5 | Top | 55-67 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on Virginia minus the points over Boston College at 6 pm et on Tuesday. The Cavaliers are coming off a tough road loss at Notre Dame on Saturday. They've now alternated wins and losses over their last eight games and I expect them to successfully bounce back once again here as they host Boston College on Tuesday. The Eagles delivered a double-digit win over Pitt on Sunday. I simply don't feel Boston College's ceiling in terms of offensive production is high enough to pose much of a challenge against the Cavaliers defense here. The Eagles generally play at Virginia's preferred pace. Boston College has actually relied quite heavily on getting to the free throw line for offensive production this season, averaging 18 attempts per game. Virginia has been stingy in that department, however, particularly here at home where they play tough defense but do so with plenty of discipline, sending opponents to the free throw line just nine times per contest. Virginia certainly isn't known for its offense but it does come into this game having shot better than 45% in three of its last four games, scoring 63 points or more in all four games. I'm expecting the Cavaliers to get well into the 60's again in this one and that will prove to be enough for the win and cover. Take Virginia (10*). | |||||||
01-31-22 | New Mexico v. San Diego State UNDER 139.5 | Top | 47-72 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between New Mexico and San Diego State at 10 pm et on Monday. I'm expecting a lower-scoring game than most in this Mountain West matchup on Monday night as San Diego State looks to bounce back from a disappointing lopsided loss at Utah State. That game was played last Wednesday night so the Aztecs have had five days to chew on it and I expect them to come out with plenty of fire as a result on Monday. Whether that fire leads to offensive success is up for debate but I'm confident the Aztecs will put their best foot forward defensively. Note that off its four previous losses this season, San Diego State allowed just 63, 47, 56 and 55 points in its next game with the 'under' going a profitable 3-1. The only game that didn't stay 'under' the total still reached just 135 points. Given how well New Mexico has been playing (7-1-1 ATS over its last nine games) I don't expect it to let San Diego State run up the score here. The Lobos are by no means an elite defensive team, but they're a confident bunch right now and I do feel they can handle San Diego State's very manageable pace. Note that the Aztecs average just a shade over 67 points per game at home this season and 70.8 points per game when coming off a loss. The Aztecs did score 80 points on 52% shooting in a win over UNLV in their most recent home game, but they're also just two games removed from an ugly 37-point on 28% shooting performance against Boise State on this same floor. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 9-1 with San Diego State priced as a home favorite of between -12.5 and -15 points over the last three seasons with those games totalling an average of just 125.5 points. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
01-31-22 | Eastern Washington v. Weber State OVER 156 | 84-90 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Eastern Washington and Weber State at 9 pm et on Monday. If Eastern Washington wants to snap out of its two-game mini slide, it's going to have to keep up with one of the fastest-paced teams in the nation in Weber State on Monday. The Wildcats enter this game as hot as any team in the country shooting the basketball, knocking down 55%, 52%, 50% and 58% of their FG attempts while scoring 95, 92, 85 and 79 points over their last four games. While they 'only' got to 79 in their most recent contest that was only due to the lopsided nature of their win over Sacramento State. I do expect Eastern Washington to pose more of a challenge here. The Eagles opened their current road trip with an 89-point explosion at Idaho State but then got bogged down in a pair of games against Montana State and Montana. After shooting sub-39% in consecutive contests I look for the Eagles to get back on track here. They can run with the best of them, ranking 43rd in the country in adjusted tempo. Take the over (9*). | |||||||
01-31-22 | Kings +5.5 v. Knicks | Top | 96-116 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over New York at 7:40 pm et on Monday. The Kings have endured a miserable road trip so far, losing all four games, but managing to go 2-2 ATS. They enter Monday's game on a season-long six-game losing streak but I fully expect them to hang tough against the struggling Knicks in this one. Keep in mind, Sacramento has taken quality opponents in the Bucks and most recently the 76ers down to the wire on this trip. Here, they catch a Knicks squad that has lost six of its last seven games, going 1-2 SU and ATS as a favorite over that stretch. On nine previous occasions, the Kings have played on the road off a straight-up loss but ATS cover as an underdog over the lat two seasons, and in that situation they've lost by just 2.3 points on average. That's certainly an improvement over their overall performance away from home this season, where they've been outscored by an average margin of 8.2 points while going 6-17 SU. On the flip side, the Knicks have only managed to outscore opponents by an average margin of 1.8 points when coming off a loss over the last two seasons (60-game sample size). Take Sacramento (10*). | |||||||
01-31-22 | Oilers v. Senators UNDER 6.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
NHL Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Edmonton and Ottawa at 7:35 pm et on Monday. The Oilers are coming off a wild 7-2 victory over the reeling Canadiens in Montreal on Saturday. That high-scoring result actually sets us up well with a play on the 'under' as their road trip continues in Ottawa on Monday, noting that the 'under' has gone 8-2 in the Oilers last 10 games following a contest in which eight or more total goals were scored, with that situation producing an average total of only 5.7 goals. The Sens would be wise to avoid a free-flowing affair here as they continue to play without a number of key contributors up front, including Drake Batherson and Josh Norris. They employed a 'muck it up' type of gameplan in a similar matchup against a stacked Hurricanes offense last week and managed to salvage a point in a 3-2 overtime loss. All told, the 'under' is a perfect 5-0 in the Sens last five home games. It's certainly worth noting that the 'under' is 23-11 with the Sens playing at home with a total of 6.0 or higher over the last two seasons, with that spot resulting in an average total of 5.8 goals. Better still, the 'under' is 13-5 the last 18 times Ottawa has played at home after losing four or five of its last six games, as is the case here, leading to an average total of only 5.2 goals. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
01-30-22 | 49ers v. Rams UNDER 46 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Los Angeles at 6:40 pm et on Sunday. The 49ers limitations with a banged-up Jimmy Garoppolo running the offense are real. If not for that late comeback against these same Rams in Week 18 we would be talking about a team that scored 23 points or less in five straight games heading into this one. I'm not convinced we'll suddenly see them bust out in this, the third matchup between these familiar NFC West foes this season. The Rams offense had little trouble (other than turnovers) carving up the Bucs defense last Sunday. I think we see a different story unfold here, however. While Matt Stafford has been terrific through the first two playoff games, he hasn't really faced a whole lot of resistance. Here, I'm confident he will against a Niners defense that isn't going to turn blitz-happy the way the Bucs defense did last week, which opened the door for Stafford to find open receivers all game long. Note that the Rams have scored 30+ points in consecutive games for only the second time this season. The last time that happened, they followed it up with a low-scoring 20-10 home win over Seattle the next week. For San Francisco, with an ailing Garoppolo going up against a fierce Rams pass rush, not to mention Trent Williams battling a possible high-ankle sprain, this one will need to be 'managed' just as we saw in the last six quarters of action (since Jimmy G. suffered the shoulder injury in the second quarter against Dallas). The fact that we're working with a fairly low posted total (by today's NFL standards) is the only thing that has me limiting my bet somewhat here. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
01-30-22 | 49ers +3.5 v. Rams | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco plus the points over Los Angeles at 6:40 pm et on Sunday. Everyone seems to be buying what the Rams are selling following last Sunday's big win over the Bucs in Tampa. I'm just not convinced we'll see Sean McVay exercise his own demons against Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers on Sunday. First of all, home field advantage is seemingly once again being factored in here, even though we're more than likely to see more red and gold than blue and yellow in the crowd at So-Fi Stadium on Sunday. Not that it matters anyway as the 49ers walked into rather severe conditions in ice cold, snowy Green Bay last Saturday and came away victorious even after things looked extremely dire late. That's what I like about this 49ers squad - they don't quit. There's no question the Niners are limited here with Jimmy Garoppolo dealing with multiple injuries. He's not the only one banged-up as Trent Williams is questionable to play at all due to an ankle injury although I can't see him sitting this one out. They've been game-planning around those limitations for weeks now, and I believe they're more than comfortable operating as such here as well. I quite simply have more faith in the Niners than I do in the Rams right now, noting that they're on an incredible 4-0 SU run in an underdog role - a streak that started with a win over the Rams on Monday Night Football back in mid-November. The fact that we're able to grab north of a field goal is an added bonus. Take San Francisco (7*). | |||||||
01-30-22 | Cavs v. Pistons UNDER 210 | Top | 105-115 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
NBA Central Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Detroit at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. This first meeting between these two teams totalled just 176 points back in mid-November and I believe Sunday's posted total will prove too high as well. This is the start of a grueling week for the Cavs as they'll play five games between now and next Sunday. I can certainly see them 'managing' this one knowing they'll be back on the floor at home against the Pelicans tomorrow night. Detroit checks in having scored over 100 points in five straight games, although it just barely got over that number in three of those games. That marks a season-long streak of the sort for Detroit, one that should be in jeopardy against the Cavs on Sunday. Note that Cleveland has held its last three opponents to just 99, 93 and 87 points and comes into this game well-rested having not played since Wednesday, when it rolled to a 115-99 win over the Bucks at home. While the Pistons are by no means a top-flight defensive team, they have managed to hold opponents to 4.1 points per game below their season average here at home. Like the Cavs, they're rested, playing just their second game in the last five days. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
01-30-22 | New Orleans +1.5 v. McNeese State | Top | 84-78 | Win | 100 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
CBB Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over McNeese State at 6 pm et on Sunday. This is a big revenge spot for New Orleans after it suffered a strange 92-82 loss to McNeese State back on January 6th - a game in which UNO knocked down just one three-pointer and one that saw a whopping 88 combined free throw attempts from the two teams. Since then, New Orleans has reeled off seven straight wins while McNeese State 3-4 SU and 2-4 ATS in lined contests. It's also worth noting that New Orleans turned the basketball over 18 times compared to McNeese State's 13 in that earlier meeting. On the season, UNO averages two fewer turnovers per contest. New Orleans has consistently drummed this McNeese State defense, putting up 82, 99 and 82 points in the last three meetings, winning two of those games. Simply put, too much weight is being placed on that earlier matchup between these two. Look for New Orleans' talent and experience to win out in this one. Take New Orleans (10*). | |||||||
01-30-22 | Bengals v. Chiefs UNDER 54.5 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
NFL Playoffs First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'under' between Cincinnati and Kansas City at 3:05 pm et on Sunday,. The Chiefs have now seen the first half 'over' cash in five straight games. I believe that streak comes to an end on Sunday. The stakes are obviously sky-high in this one as Kansas City looks to advance to a third consecutive Super Bowl while the Bengals look to get there well ahead of schedule in the Joe Burrow era. There's been a pretty solid pattern developing with Bengals first half totals away from home. Cincinnati has scored just 9.6 points on average in the first half on the road this season - north of three points fewer than their overall first half scoring average. While the Chiefs don't figure to generate the same level of pressure on Burrow that the Titans did last week, Kansas City still boasts a capable defense that has excelled in the first half at home this season, giving up just 9.1 points on average. The Bengals defense wasn't pushed all that hard by the Titans last Saturday but it will be here. With that being said, this is a capable defense that I believe can hold up well, at least in the early stages of this game. I certainly don't expect to see the Bengals serve as a 'swinging gate' the way they did in their regular season meeting with the Chiefs, when they gave up a whopping 28 first half points. Keep in mind, after making halftime adjustments, they held the Chiefs vaunted offense to just three points in the entire second half, so we do know they're capable. I'm not convinced that either team wants to get involved in the type of shootout we saw in Cincinnati. Both offenses are certainly capable but effectively shortening this game might be the best course of action for both squads given the talent on the opposing sideline. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a perfect 7-0 in the first half over the last three seasons with the Chiefs having gained an average of over 450 total yards per contest over their last three games, as is the case here. That situation has produced an average first half total of just 24.1 points. Take the first half under (10*). | |||||||
01-30-22 | Seattle Kraken v. Rangers -182 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Seattle at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. The Rangers could easily overlook the Kraken but I don't see that happening here as they come off consecutive discouraging losses on Thursday and Friday. They blew 2-0 leads in both of those games, failing to pick up a single point along the way. They'll need to make the most of this winnable game as they face a tough stretch with three games against the Panthers and Capitals at home and the Penguins on the road. Note that New York is still 13-6 on home ice this season, outscoring opponents by 0.9 goals on average. The Kraken on the other hand, despite posting an overtime win at Pittsburgh last time out, are still just 5-13 on the road, where they've been outscored by an average margin of 0.9 goals. Keep in mind, the Rangers already skated to a 3-1 win in Seattle earlier this season. Also note that New York is 9-1 after giving up three goals or more in consecutive games this season, outscoring opponents by 1.1 goals on average in that situation. Take New York (6*). | |||||||
01-29-22 | Canucks v. Flames -180 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Calgary over Vancouver at 10:05 pm et on Saturday. The Flames enjoyed tremendous success earlier this week, scoring 13 goals and firing over 100 shots on goal over a two-game stretch against St. Louis and Columbus, winning those two games by a combined 13-1 score. Their success was short-lived, however, as they fell by a 5-1 score in St. Louis on Thursday. Those wins earlier in the week are all for not if they can't quickly right the ship here against Vancouver on Saturday. I'm confident they'll do just that. While Calgary is just 6-8 at home this season, it has actually outscored opponents by an average margin of 0.7 goals. I like the setup here as the Flames host a Canucks squad coming off a blowout win over the reeling Jets in Winnipeg on Thursday. Note that the Canucks average just 2.1 goals when coming off a win by two goals or more this season (eight-game sample size). You would have to go back three meetings here in Calgary to find the last time the Canucks defeated the Flames, with the latter taking five of the last seven matchups at the Saddledome. Take Calgary (5*). | |||||||
01-29-22 | Wizards v. Grizzlies UNDER 228.5 | Top | 95-115 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. I look for the Grizzlies to 'manage' this game after securing a double-digit win over the Jazz on this same floor last night and before heading out on a three-game road trip beginning on Monday night in Philadelphia. The Wizards are reeling right now, losers of four games in a row including that stunning setback at home against the Clippers after leading by 30+ on Tuesday. The Wiz couldn't buy a basket when they needed it most in the fourth quarter in that one and are just one game removed from an ugly 87-point effort against the Celtics. Keep in mind, Washington averages 2.7 points below its season scoring average on the road, where its games have totalled an average of just 214.6 points. Here, we'll note that the Grizzlies have posted a 1-13 o/u record when seeking revenge for a loss by 20+ points against an opponent over the last two seasons, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of just 213.0 points. That's worth noting given the most recent meeting between these two teams went the way of the Wizards by a 115-87 score in Washington back in early November with that contest easily staying 'under' the 220.5-point total. We're dealing with an even higher number here and I don't believe it's warranted. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
01-29-22 | Devils v. Hurricanes OVER 6 | 1-2 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New Jersey and Carolina at 7 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the 'over' in the Devils most recent game - a 3-2 loss in Tampa on Thursday. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here, however. Note that the 'over' is 15-6 with the Devils having scored two goals or less in consecutive games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 7.2 goals. Despite being down to third and fourth-string goaltenders, New Jersey has held up ok, allowing 'only' 11 goals over its last three contests. I believe the floogates could open here, however, with the Canes looking to avenge a 7-4 loss on the road against the Devils earlier this month. Note that Carolina averages 3.8 goals per game at home this season and better still, has scored an average of 4.1 goals per game against division opponents, with those games totalling an average of 7.8 goals. Take the over (7*). | |||||||
01-29-22 | Sharks v. Panthers -1.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
NHL Puck-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on Florida -1.5 goals over San Jose at 6:05 pm et on Saturday. The Panthers are enjoying a level of success on home ice that we simply haven't seen in a number of years. With Thursday's 4-1 win over Vegas, they're now 22-3, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 2.2 goals, here in Sunrise. While we missed the mark fading the Sharks on Wednesday in Washington, as the Caps quite simply turned in a lifeless performance, I won't hesitate to go back to the well here. Note that the Sharks are averaging a miserable 1.5 goals per game when coming off a win by three goals or more this season, as is the case here (six-game sample size). Meanwhile, Florida checks in averaging a ridiculous 5.5 goals and outscoring opponents by an average margin of 3.4 goals when playing at home following a home win this season, and we're not talking about a minuscule sample size either, that situation has come up 13 times previously. You would have to go back five meetings to find the last time the Sharks managed to stay within a single goal against the Panthers, outscored by a 20-8 margin over the last four meetings. Take Florida -1.5 goals (10*). | |||||||
01-29-22 | Eastern Kentucky v. Stetson OVER 139.5 | Top | 95-113 | Win | 100 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
Atlantic Sun Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Eastern Kentucky and Stetson at 4 pm et on Saturday. There's a lot of upside playing this one 'over' the total with the number sitting in the high-130's. We'll certainly see a contrast in styles here as Eastern Kentucky ranks top-25 in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom while Stetson sits well north of 300th in that category. With that being said, Stetson is just two games removed from a 91-point performance in a narrow two-point home loss against Florida-Gulf Coast. There's reason to believe we'll see Stetson push the pace a little more than usual here after it was held to just 47 points on 28% shooting last time out against Bellarmine. Despite its break-neck place, Eastern Kentucky hasn't posted an 'over' result since the first week of December. Keep in mind, it has regularly seen totals posted in the 150's and 160's. We're dealing with a much lower total here. Stetson has high hopes this season after appearing in the CBI Tournament last April and returning a wealth of talent. Rob Perry being sidelined hasn't helped its cause but in theory there is plenty of depth - particularly at the guard position - to make up for his absence. Regardless, I believe the Hatters will be afforded plenty of good looks against a 'defense-optional' Eastern Kentucky squad here as both teams do their part in helping this one 'over' the very reasonable total. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
01-29-22 | Jets v. Blues -170 | 4-1 | Loss | -170 | 8 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis over Winnipeg at 3:05 pm et on Saturday. Defensive warts notwithstanding, the Blues continue to roll along, winners of seven of their last nine games and this serves as a key game on Saturday as they won't play again until February 10th. They're certainly catching the Jets at the right time as Winnipeg has lost six games in a row and doesn't appear poised to turn things around anytime soon, severely missing Nik Ehlers and Josh Morrissey, among others. The Jets did take the most recent meeting between these two teams by a 4-2 score in Winnipeg back on December 19th. That serves the Blues well here, noting that they've gone an exceptional 8-1 when seeking revenge for a loss in which their opponent scored four or more goals this season, outscoring opponents by a wide average margin of 2.1 goals in that situation. We'll keep our fingers crossed that St. Louis goes with the red hot Ville Husso in goal for this one but even if Jordan Binnington gets the nod, I'm not convinced the Jets can take full advantage. Take St. Louis (6*). | |||||||
01-29-22 | West Virginia +8.5 v. Arkansas | 68-77 | Loss | -112 | 4 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on West Virginia plus the points over Arkansas at 2 pm et on Saturday. I like the way this one sets up for the Mountaineers as they look to snap a four-game skid. They should be happy to get out of the Big 12 for a game at least, even though they catch Arkansas off five consecutive victories. Give West Virginia credit for its 13-6 overall record as it has faced the 20th toughest schedule in the country (according to KenPom). Here, we'll note that these two teams average an identical number of made threes per game despite West Virginia attempting two fewer per contest. The Mountaineers also send opponents to the free throw line three fewer times per game and force three more turnovers per contest. (despite playing at a slower pace). I simply don't believe there's as much separating these two teams as the oddsmakers would lead you to believe. Take West Virginia (9*). | |||||||
01-28-22 | Capitals v. Stars OVER 5.5 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -116 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
NHL Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Dallas at 9:05 pm et on Friday. I like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair on Friday night in Dallas. Washington got bogged down at home on Wednesday night, managing just one goal in a lopsided loss to the Sharks. The Caps have managed to score just a single goal over their last two games combined. They know they'll need to pick up the pace against a Stars squad that has found its groove offensively, scoring 18 goals over their last four games. Dallas checks in averaging an impressive 3.6 goals per game on home ice this season. Better still, when playing at home off a win this season, the Stars average 4.2 goals per game (10-game sample size). Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 9-1 the last 10 times the Caps have come off three or more consecutive 'under' results, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of 6.6 goals. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
01-28-22 | Jazz +4.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 109-119 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Utah plus the points over Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Jazz continue to struggle, losers of nine of their last 11 games entering Friday's showdown in Memphis. They check in off consecutive hard-fought losses against the Suns. While they're on a three-game losing streak, those three losses have come by only a combined 16 points. Utah is always tough on Memphis. In fact, you would have to go all the way back to 2017 to find the last time the Grizzlies were favored in a matchup in this series. Memphis was red hot in late December into early January. However, it checks in just 3-3 SU and ATS over its last six contests. Over that stretch, the Grizzlies were held to 91 points or less on two occasions. On the flip side of that, Memphis has allowed north of 100 points in 10 straight and 13 of its last 14 games. Here, we'll note that the Jazz are a long-term 136-99 ATS when playing on the road after losing four or five of their last six games, which is the case here. I don't expect them to let the Grizzlies off the hook easy as they look to open this road trip on a positive note. Take Utah (10*). | |||||||
01-28-22 | Wild v. Rangers UNDER 6 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and New York at 8:05 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams have been involved in their share of high-scoring games lately. The Wild are coming off an eight-goal outburst on Monday but that came at the expense of the lowly Canadiens, who are down to their fourth or fifth-string goaltender right now. The Rangers took it on the chin in Columbus last night, jumping ahead 2-0 before falling by a 5-3 score. That was with backup goaltender Alex Georgiev in goal. We should see standout netminder Igor Shesterkin back between the pipes for the Blueshirts on Friday. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 13-4 in the Wild's last 17 road games when coming off consecutive contests totalling seven goals or more, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of just 5.1 goals. As for the Rangers, the 'under' is 16-5 in their last 21 home games after a loss by two goals or more, as is the situation here, leading to an average total of only 5.3 goals. Finally, I'll point out that you would have to go back four meetings here in New York to find the last time these two teams posted a total north of five goals at MSG. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
01-28-22 | Wyoming v. Air Force +8 | 63-61 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Air Force plus the points over Wyoming at 6 pm et on Friday. Tough spot for Wyoming here as it just had its six-game winning streak snapped in a narrow 65-62 loss at Boise State two nights ago (we won with the Cowboys plus the points in that game). Air Force has certainly been a 'tough out' in Mountain West Conference play and checks in riding a 6-1 ATS hot streak, including a 10-point win as a short underdog at San Jose State two nights ago. The Falcons can certainly be a frustrating team to play against, as the Cowboys found out first hand in a 72-69 loss as a road favorite here in Colorado Springs last January (before responding with a 19-point rout on the same floor two nights later). With a big showdown against Colorado State coming up at home on Monday, I see this as a spot where the Cowboys simply look to secure a win and move on with winning by margin being of little consequence. Take Air Force (8*). | |||||||
01-27-22 | Wolves v. Warriors OVER 228.5 | Top | 115-124 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Golden State at 10 pm et on Thursday. I'm high on both of these teams entering this nationally-televised matchup on Thursday night. While we're dealing with a fairly high total at first glance, I believe it will prove too low. The T'Wolves have now given up over 100 points in each of their last 18 road games. They're giving up just shy of 115 points per game away from home this season. Golden State is coming off its second highest-scoring performance of the season, putting up 130 points in a rout of the Mavs two nights ago. Klay Thompson appears to be getting more comfortable with each passing game (he had actually sat the previous two games before Tuesday's blowout win). Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 64-29 the last 93 times the Warriors played at home seeking revenge for a 20+ point loss, as is the case here after they suffered a 119-99 setback in Minnesota less than two weeks ago. Keep in mind, the Warriors elected to rest a number of their starters in that game at the tail-end of a four-game road trip. The T'Wolves are playing as well offensively as any team in the league right now, having scored 108 points or more in nine straight games. They're just one game removed from a 136-point outburst against Brooklyn. There's little reason for them to shy away from the challenge at hand here as the T'Wolves have scored 108, 111, 126, 110 and 119 points in five meetings in this series going back to the start of 2021. Note that the 'over' is 23-10 in Minnesota's last 33 games when playing on the road after losing four or five of their last six games ATS over the last three seasons, producing an average total of 235.5 points in that situation. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
01-27-22 | California v. UCLA UNDER 130 | Top | 57-81 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
CBB Pac-12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between California and UCLA at 9 pm et on Thursday. Cal is coming off a dreadful performance against Arizona in which it was ripped for 96 points. That could be considered an outlier, however, as the Bears had only allowed more than 65 points once in five previous Pac-12 contests this season. UCLA came up with a stunning 16-point upset win over Arizona two nights ago which obviously sets it up in a bit of a letdown spot here. The Bruins are locked in defensively right now, allowing 65, 58, 65 and 59 points over their last four contests. Since the start of 2020, they've held Cal to 40, 56, 57 and 52 points with the latter coming in a 60-52 victory earlier this month. With both teams adept at taking care of the basketball, I look for much of this one to be played in the half-court, much like we saw in the first meeting between these two squads this season. Take the under (10*). |
Service | Profit |
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Ricky Tran | $756 |
ProSportsPicks | $632 |
Joseph D'Amico | $510 |
Joey Tron | $450 |
Tom Macrina | $399 |
Nick Parsons | $344 |
Sean Murphy | $306 |
Jack Jones | $303 |
William Burns | $233 |
Dan Kaiser | $220 |