Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
07-06-22 | Nationals v. Phillies -1.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia -1.5 runs over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. How many more opportunities will we get to fade Nationals starter Josiah Gray? The Nats' were a home favorite in his most recent start against the Marlins and he missed the mark again, yielding six earned runs on 10 hits over 5 2/3 innings. Gray had admittedly been pitching well over a five-start stretch previously but that success wasn't sustainable. He checks in sporting a 4.99 FIP and 1.27 WHIP while allowing north of 4.3 runs per nine innings this season. Behind Gray is an awful Nats' bullpen that has recorded a collective 6.04 ERA and 1.46 WHIP over the last seven games and that's actually an improvement over their season numbers on the road (6.48 ERA and 1.58 WHIP). Philadelphia will counter with Aaron Nola. He's often the forgotten arm in a solid Phillies starting rotation but he continues to pitch effectively. Nola owns a 2.94 FIP and 0.92 WHIP this season, giving up only 3.21 runs per nine innings. The Philadelphia bullpen remains in terrific form, having posted a sparkling 1.17 ERA and 0.87 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take Philadelphia -1.5 runs (8*). | |||||||
07-06-22 | Yankees v. Pirates OVER 9 | 16-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The 'under' has cashed in each of the Yankees last three games and also in consecutive games involving the Pirates. I look for a reversal of that trend on Wednesday as New York sends Luis Severino to the mound against Mitch Keller of the Pirates. Severino hasn't pitched poorly by any means but he hasn't been lights out either. The right-hander checks in sporting a 3.65 FIP and 1.05 WHIP while giving up just shy of 3.5 runs per nine innings. Both his home runs and walks allowed per nine innings are up in comparison to his career averages, keeping in mind this would be his first full season since 2018. Mitch Keller has been as advertised for the Buccos this season, recording a 4.04 FIP and 1.53 WHIP while giving up just under 5.3 runs per nine innings. Meanwhile, the Pirates bullpen owns an ugly 6.59 ERA and 1.68 WHIP over the last seven games, leaving the door open for late runs in this one. Rather than lay the -1.5 runs at an inflated price with the Yankees, we'll go the totals route here. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
07-06-22 | Mets -161 v. Reds | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
MLB Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on New York over Cincinnati a 6:40 pm et on Wednesday. We missed with the Mets last night as they couldn't muster any offense in Max Scherzer's return to the rotation, losing that game by a 1-0 score in walk-off fashion. They'll bounce back on Wednesday as they hand the ball to a rejuvenated David Peterson. The fact that New York is sending a left-handed starter to the hill is notable as the Reds have gone a woeful 7-16 against southpaws this season, including six consecutive losses heading into this one. Peterson has righted the ship after a rocky start to his campaign, lowering his FIP to 3.78 and his WHIP to 1.20 thanks to consecutive strong outings. While Peterson has yielded an ugly 3.4 walks per nine innings this season he hasn't handed out a single free pass over his last two starts. Graham Ashcraft will counter for Cincinnati. The books seems to be out on the rookie right-hander as he has struggled mightily over his last several outings (save for a solid performance against the reeling Giants). He owns a 4.15 FIP and 1.24 WHIP on the season, allowing north of 4.5 runs per nine innings. While the Reds bullpen held up well last night, that doesn't change the fact that they've recorded an awful 8.44 ERA and 1.99 WHIP over their last seven games. In stark contrast, the Mets 'pen has posted a 3.47 ERA and 1.29 WHIP over the same stretch. Take New York (10*). | |||||||
07-06-22 | Angels -1.5 v. Marlins | Top | 5-2 | Win | 101 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Miami at 6:40 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the Marlins last night but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Angels, on the run-line, on Wednesday. Los Angeles is struggling right now having lost four games in a row. After getting blown out in the first two of those four losses they've been close in the last two, dropping two and one-run decisions. Here, I expect them to finally get over the hump with Shohei Ohtani on the mound. Ohtani checks in sporting a Cy Young Award-caliber 2.52 FIP and 1.01 WHIP while allowing only 2.68 runs per nine innings. He's been lights out over his last few starts in particular, not allowing a single earned run over those three outings. It's been a much different story for Marlins starter Trevor Rogers. He has posted a 4.75 FIP and 1.59 WHIP while yielding just shy of 6.0 runs per nine frames this season. While the Marlins do have the advantage in the later innings given their bullpen's recent form, I'm not convinced that's enough to make the difference here. Noting that all but one of the Angels 16 road wins this season have come by 2+ runs, I'm comfortable laying the extra run with the Halos on Wednesday. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (10*). | |||||||
07-06-22 | Blue Jays v. A's OVER 8 | 2-1 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Toronto and Oakland at 3:35 pm et on Wednesday. The two bullpens stepped in and saved the day for 'under' bettors in this matchup last night. The A's have now seen the 'under' go 4-0-1 over their last five games. I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday, however. Jose Berrios will get the start for the struggling Blue Jays. He's not having a good season - not by any stretch of the imagination. Berrios owns a 5.17 FIP and 1.43 WHIP and has been tagged for north of 5.7 runs per nine innings. His counterpart on Wednesday, A's starter James Kaprielian, has arguably been even worse. He checks in sporting a 5.75 FIP and 1.38 WHIP while yielding just shy of 5.6 runs per nine innings. While the two bullpens bring solid recent form into this contest, I'm not anticipating them delivering another clean sheet on Wednesday afternoon. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
07-05-22 | Rockies v. Dodgers -1.5 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Colorado at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. While we're talking about a smaller sample size innings-wise, there's really no comparison between Dodgers starter Mitch White and German Marquez of the Rockies. White has posted a 3.84 FIP and 1.19 WHIP this season and has had a bit of hard luck in allowing just shy of 4.2 runs per nine innings. He's allowing 2.5 fewer hits, 0.6 fewer home runs and 0.5 fewer walks per nine innings compared to the veteran Marquez this season. Marquez sports a 4.98 FIP and 1.54 WHIP and yields north of 6.5 runs per nine innings. The bullpen comparison is no contest either as the Rockies relief corps has posted a collective 5.23 ERA and 1.45 WHIP on the road while the Dodgers 'pen owns a 3.65 ERA and 1.16 WHIP at home. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (8*). | |||||||
07-05-22 | Blue Jays -180 v. A's | 3-5 | Loss | -180 | 14 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto over Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. We'll take a flyer with Yusei Kikuchi and the Blue Jays on Tuesday, betting that Kikuchi's turnaround in his most recent start wasn't a fluke and perhaps the beginning of a positive stretch for the left-hander. Kikuchi allowed just one earned run over six innings in that victory over the Rays last time out. He should be happy to face a former divisional rival that he's had some success against in the A's on Tuesday, noting that Oakland checks in a woeful 9-18 while averaging just 3.0 runs per game against left-handed starters this season. A's spot starter Adrian Martinez had a nice outing against the light-hitting Tigers earlier in the campaign but his second start didn't go nearly as well as the Mariners reached him for seven earned runs in just 4 2/3 innings last time out. After getting baffled by left-hander Cole Irvin last night, look for the Blue Jays bats to wake up against the righty Martinez here. While the A's bullpen has been terrific lately, it still sports an ugly 5.12 ERA and 1.53 WHIP with four saves converted and six blown at home this season. The Jays 'pen has recorded a 3.23 ERA and 1.21 WHIP on the road. Take Toronto (8*). | |||||||
07-05-22 | Cubs v. Brewers OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
N.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a low-scoring contest between these two N.L. Central rivals yesterday as the Brewers walked it off in a 5-2 extra innings victory. I expect a different story to unfold on Tuesday as the hitters should have plenty of success in this one. Cubs veteran right-hander Kyle Hendricks has had an up-and-down season, perhaps with more downs than ups. He owns a 4.75 FIP and 1.29 WHIP while allowing just shy of 4.8 runs per nine innings. His counterpart on Tuesday will be Jason Alexander. He's arguably been slightly worse than Hendricks, recording a 4.35 FIP and 1.70 WHIP while giving up 4.7 runs per nine frames. The two bullpens have been serviceable lately but are showing some signs of wear with neither team enjoying an off day since June 27th. The two 'pens have worked 32 and 28 2/3 innings, respectively, over the last seven games with the Cubs relief corps having posted a 3.37 ERA and 1.31 WHIP over that stretch and the Brewers checking in with a 3.45 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
07-05-22 | Sun -5 v. Wings | Top | 71-82 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
WNBA Game of the Year. My selection is on Connecticut minus the points over Dallas at 8 pm et on Tuesday. While the Sun have won just twice in their last five games, including an narrow two-point victory over Washington last time out, I believe they're on the cusp of going on another run. Connecticut has certainly been 'filling it up' lately, knocking down 31, 27, 32 and 30 field goals over its last four games. Now it draws a favorable matchup against a Dallas defense that has yielded its last two opponents 34 and 37 made field goals (on 76+ attempts). In fact, the Wings have allowed 28+ made field goals in 10 of their last 11 contests. Only one of Connecticut's last five opponents has managed to knock down more than 27 field goals. I like the way the Sun have been limiting their opponents scoring opportunities, allowing fewer than 70 FG attempts in six consecutive games. While Dallas did make good on 33-of-66 FG attempts last time out against Los Angeles, it is just one game removed from shooting a miserable 17-of-59 against a subpar Minnesota defense. Dallas has made 30+ field goals only twice in its last five contests. Dallas snuck away with a victory in Connecticut in the first meeting between these two teams this season but revenge was sweet for the Sun as they won by 31 points two nights later. Here, we'll note that Connecticut is on a 19-6 ATS run against Western Conference opponents, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 8.4 points. Take Connecticut (10*). | |||||||
07-05-22 | Mets -190 v. Reds | 0-1 | Loss | -190 | 12 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. The fact that we're able to back the Mets at better than a -200 price point (at the time of writing) represents value in my opinion as they welcome Mad Max Scherzer back to the hill against the lowly Reds. We won with New York last night and I see no reason not to go right back to the well here. Scherzer, prior to getting hurt, had posted a terrific 2.95 FIP and 0.95 WHIP this season, yielding only 2.72 runs per nine innings. There's little reason for the Mets to rush their ace back so I'm confident he's good to go here. Of course, behind Scherzer is a solid Mets bullpen that has posted a 3.57 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over the last seven games. That's in stark contrast to the Reds 'pen, which owns a ridiculous 9.94 ERA and 2.17 WHIP over the same stretch and has blown five saves while converting only four at home this season. Rookie Nick Lodolo will counter Scherzer on Tuesday. He's only seen limited action so far but has not surprisingly struggled, posting a 4.61 FIP and 1.57 WHIP while allowing north of 5.5 runs per nine frames. Take New York (8*). | |||||||
07-05-22 | Cardinals +130 v. Braves | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
N.L. Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on St. Louis over Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Tuesday. This is undoubtedly the Cardinals best opportunity to steal a win in this series as from here the starting pitching matchups only get tougher with the Braves sending Max Fried and impressive rookie Spencer Strider to the hill the next two days. On Tuesday, St. Louis will hand the ball to Andre Pallante. He's been quietly effective at the back-end of its rotation, posting a 4.10 FIP and 1.31 WHIP while allowing only 2.1 runs per nine innings this season. I like the fact that he's shown the ability to work relatively deep into ball games, lasting at least into the sixth inning in each of his last three starts. Behind Pallante is a Cardinals bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a 2.96 ERA and 1.06 WHIP over the last seven games. Ian Anderson will get the start for Atlanta. He's battled command issues all season, recording a 4.58 FIP and 1.52 WHIP while yielding north of 5.4 runs per nine innings. You would have to go back three Anderson starts to find the last time the Braves won a game with the right-hander on the mound. Atlanta's relief corps entered last night's contest with a 5.64 ERA and 1.48 WHIP, not to mention three blown saves (to go along with three converted) over its previous seven contests. Take St. Louis (10*). | |||||||
07-05-22 | Angels v. Marlins -135 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami over Los Angeles at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Marlins enter this short two-game set against the Angels on a roll, having reeled off five straight victories - a streak that started with a come-from-behind win in St. Louis in which tonight's starter, Sandy Alcantara, tossed a complete game. The Angels have lost three consecutive games and will hand the ball to Noah Syndergaard on Tuesday. He's certainly pitched well but I believe the Halos have stretched him a little thin, leaving him in for 7+ innings in each of his last two outings. Syndergaard owns a 3.74 FIP and 1.18 WHIP this season while allowing 4.13 runs per nine innings. While those are solid numbers, they don't match up with Alcantara. The Marlins ace has recorded Cy Young Award-caliber numbers this season, with a 3.02 FIP and 0.95 WHIP while giving up only 2.5 runs per nine innings. It's a similar story as far as the two bullpens go as the Marlins are in better form, having posted a collective 3.48 ERA and 1.11 WHIP with four saves converted and one blown over their last seven games. The Angels 'pen has been overworked, called upon to log 30 innings over the last seven contests while recording a 4.50 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. Take Miami (8*). | |||||||
07-05-22 | Mariners v. Padres UNDER 7.5 | 6-2 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and San Diego at 4:10 pm et on Tuesday. We have a fine starting pitching matchup as the Mariners and Padres wrap up their brief two-game interleague series on Tuesday afternoon in San Diego. Logan Gilbert will take the ball for Seattle. He's been terrific in his second big league season, posting a 3.46 FIP and 1.12 WHIP while allowing just 2.95 runs per nine innings. While the Mariners bullpen did cough up a couple of meaningless runs in the ninth inning yesterday, that unit has performed exceptionally well lately, recording a collective 2.21 ERA and 0.79 WHIP over the last seven games (prior to yesterday's contest). Padres starter Mike Clevinger is back in the bigs after missing the entire 2021 campaign due to injury and he seemingly hasn't missed a beat. He checks in with a 3.35 FIP and 1.10 WHIP, giving up just 3.1 runs per nine innings this season. That's all the more impressive when you consider he stumbled in his first two outings. Over his last four starts, Clevinger has allowed just two earned runs in 18 innings of work. While the Padres bullpen has struggled lately, its long-term track record gives me confidence, particularly here at home. Entering yesterday's game, the Pads' relief corps had recorded a collective 3.02 ERA and 0.90 WHIP at home this season. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
07-04-22 | Twins v. White Sox UNDER 9.5 | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
A.L. Central Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Monday. These two teams are coming off very different results on Sunday as the Twins failed to complete the sweep of the Orioles, falling by a 3-1 score at home, while the White Sox wrapped up an impressive sweep of the Giants in San Francisco, delivering a 13-4 victory. Here, I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair as these two A.L. Central rivals square off in Chicago. Dylan Bundy will take the ball for Minnesota. He's had an up-and-down season to be sure but does bring solid form into this start having allowed just four earned runs over his last three starts, spanning 19 innings of work. Bundy checks in sporting a 4.32 FIP and 1.29 WHIP on the season but what I like about him is the fact that he doesn't walk a ton of batters, yielding just 1.8 walks per nine innings. White Sox starter Johnny Cueto is having a fine season, recording a 4.15 FIP and 1.17 WHIP while allowing just 3.5 runs per nine innings. The White Sox bullpen has posted the second best FIP in baseball over the last week, checking in with a 2.22 mark. For their part, Twins relievers have recorded a terrific 3.18 FIP over the same stretch, 11th best in the majors for that time frame. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
07-04-22 | Winnipeg v. Toronto +5.5 | 23-22 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto plus the points over Winnipeg at 7:30 pm et on Monday. While the two-time defending champion Blue Bombers are off to a perfect 3-0 start it's important to keep things in perspective as those three victories came against the RedBlacks and Tiger-Cats - two teams that have combined to go 0-7 to start the season. The Argos are coming off an embarrassing 44-3 road defeat at the hands of the red hot Lions. I'm confident they can make amends for that poor performance back home, where they opened the campaign with a narrow one-point win over the Alouettes. I had the Argos rated as one of the league's best defensive teams entering the season and saw nothing to change my mind in their season-opener. After getting blasted by the Lions there's certainly reason for pause, but I'm willing to give them a 'mulligan' for that poor effort and look for a positive response here. The Blue Bombers offense hasn't looked the same without RB Andrew Harris (who now plays for Toronto but is listed as questionable for this game due to injury). They've scored just 64 points through three games with QB Zach Collaros topping out at 21 pass completions (he's completed just 54-of-80 pass attempts so far this season). WR Nic Demski hauled in six catches for 96 yards last time out against Hamilton but he's now sidelined with an injury. As the two-time defending champs, Winnipeg is going to get every opponents' best punch and I expect nothing different on Monday. Take Toronto (8*). | |||||||
07-04-22 | Mercury v. Sparks UNDER 169.5 | Top | 75-78 | Win | 100 | 7 h 23 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 7 pm et on Monday. The most recent meeting between these two teams totalled only 155 points so not surprisingly we're dealing with a lower posted total this time around. I'm not sure we've seen enough of an adjustment though. The Mercury have done a nice job of limiting their opponents scoring opportunities lately, allowing 67 or fewer field goal attempts in six straight games. They allowed 91 points in their most recent contest - a blowout loss against Chicago as the Sky quite simply shot the lights out (30-of-57 from the field). While Los Angeles has been 'filling it up' lately, making good on 37 and 30 field goals over its last two contests I expect it to run into a speedbump here. Note that the Sparks have tightened things up defensively, allowing 27 or fewer made field goals in three of their last four games. You would have to go back five games to find the last time Los Angeles allowed 70+ field goal attempts. With Phoenix playing its second game in three days and Los Angeles in a 3-in-4 situation, I'm not convinced either side will be interested in a track meet here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
07-04-22 | Mets -161 v. Reds | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Monday. The Mets have a significant advantage in a number of different departments in this game with starting pitching at the forefront. Taijuan Walker will take the ball for New York. He's been in excellent form, checking in with a 1.80 ERA and 0.95 WHIP over his last three starts. Of course that's nothing new as Walker owns a 3.09 FIP and 1.17 WHIP, allowing just 2.85 runs per nine innings on the season. His counterpart on Monday will be Hunter Greene. His rookie season hasn't gone swimmingly as he's recorded a 5.53 FIP and 1.34 WHIP, yielding north of 5.8 runs per nine frames. The Reds bullpen behind Greene doesn't instill much confidence as that group entered yesterday's action having posted a 10.08 ERA and 2.00 WHIP over the last seven games. At home this season, Cincinnati has recorded only four saves while blowing four as well. In stark contrast, the Mets 'pen entered yesterday's play sporting a 3.37 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over the last seven games, recording three saves without blowing any over that stretch. Take New York (9*). | |||||||
07-04-22 | Giants -175 v. Diamondbacks | 3-8 | Loss | -175 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco over Arizona at 6:10 pm et on Monday. We missed with the Giants yesterday as they dropped their third straight game against the White Sox, in blowout fashion no less. With that being said, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with them on Monday as they hit the road to face the division rival D'Backs in Arizona. San Francisco has a considerable starting pitching advantage in this one with Carlos Rodon going against Madison Bumgarner of the D'Backs. Rodon has been terrific this season - Cy Young-caliber even - recording a 2.29 FIP and 1.09 WHIP while allowing only 2.72 runs per nine innings. Bumgarner, meanwhile, owns a 4.70 FIP and 1.37 WHIP and has been tagged for north of 4.4 runs per nine innings. The bullpen matchup isn't any better for the Snakes. Their relief corps' entered yesterday's action sporting a 5.11 ERA and 1.30 WHIP over the last seven games. The Giants 'pen had posted a 1.91 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over the same stretch. Take San Francisco (9*). | |||||||
07-04-22 | Rays v. Red Sox UNDER 10.5 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Tampa Bay and Boston at 1:35 pm et on Monday. Most are expecting plenty of offensive fireworks on the Fourth of July at Fenway Park but I look for a different story to unfold as these two A.L. East rivals do battle. We have a sneaky-good starting pitching matchup here with the Rays sending Jalen Beeks to the hill against Michael Wacha of the Red Sox. Beeks has posted a 3.69 FIP and 1.08 WHIP in 33 1/3 innings of work this season, yielding only 2.7 runs per nine innings. Former Ray Michael Wacha has been more than serviceable for the Red Sox, recording a 3.97 FIP and 1.11 WHIP, giving up 2.94 runs per nine frames. The Rays just finished beating up on the Blue Jays pitching staff but I don't expect them to do the same against Boston. Given the total we're being offered in the first five innings, I don't feel we need to mess with the bullpens in this contest. Take the first five innings under (8*). | |||||||
07-04-22 | Rangers v. Orioles -103 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baltimore first five innings over Texas at 1:05 pm et on Monday. Orioles starter Dean Kremer has done nothing but impress since laboring through his first start against the Guardians this season, allowing just one earned run over his last four outings, spanning 23 2/3 innings of work. Kremer checks in with an impressive 3.08 FIP and 1.14 WHIP in 28 innings this season, allowing only 1.61 runs per nine innings. Dane Dunning will counter for Texas on Monday. He's had a number of quality outings spoiled by a lack of run support and while that could very well turn out to be the issue again here, we'll note that Dunning's overall numbers aren't great. He has recorded a 4.03 FIP and 1.34 WHIP, giving up just shy of 4.2 runs per nine innings. We're not interested in the bullpen matchup here as the O's relief corps has seemingly hit a wall lately while the Rangers 'pen has thrived. Instead we'll back the O's in the first five innings as they look to build on the momentum gained from yesterday's victory in Minnesota. Take Baltimore first five innings (8*). | |||||||
07-03-22 | Cardinals v. Phillies UNDER 8 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. St. Louis saw its three-game 'under' streak come to an end in a wild 7-6 victory over Philadelphia yesterday. Here, I'm anticipating a much lower-scoring affair. Adam Wainwright will take the ball for the Cardinals. He's having a 'turn back the clock' type of season, posting a 3.37 FIP and 1.25 WHIP, yielding less than 3.2 runs per nine innings. His counterpart on Sunday will be Zack Wheeler. He's labored through his last couple of outings but his overall numbers are still terrific as he's recorded a 2.53 FIP and 1.10 WHIP, allowing just 3.33 runs per nine innings. While the Cardinals bullpen has inexplicably blown four saves over the last week it has still posted solid numbers, a collective 3.54 ERA and 1.21 WHIP over the last seven contests. The Phillies 'pen checks in sporting a 0.99 ERA and 0.62 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
07-03-22 | White Sox v. Giants -105 | 13-4 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco over Chicago at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. White Sox starter Lucas Giolito continues to labor through what has been a trying campaign so far as he checks into Sunday's start sporting a 4.78 FIP and 1.53 WHIP. He's giving up just shy of 5.6 runs per nine innings. With the bullpens a virtual wash in this matchup given recent form, I'm comfortable fading Giolito at nearly a pk'em price. John Brebbia is expected to get the start for the Giants, likely in an 'opener' role. Brebbia has pitched well this season, recording a 2.04 FIP and 1.20 WHIP in 33 1/3 innings of work. In fact, he's quietly been effective over the course of his big league career, with a 3.29 FIP and 1.16 WHIP across five seasons, working 226 2/3 innings. Take San Francisco (9*). | |||||||
07-03-22 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies UNDER 11.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 23 m | Show |
MLB First Five Innings Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Arizona and Colorado at 3:10 pm et on Sunday. The first two games in this series have not surprisingly been high-scoring but we have the best starting pitching matchup of the series on Sunday as the D'Backs send Zac Gallen to the hill against Chad Kuhl of the Rockies. I look for this one to get off to a much lower-scoring start at least. Gallen owns a 3.75 FIP and 1.05 WHIP this season, allowing just 3.67 runs per nine innings. He's coming off a poor performance in his most recent start but that was in a tough situation as he was facing the Padres for a second straight outing (in the span of less than a week). He's held the Rockies to two earned runs or less in seven of his eight career starts against them, including no runs over seven innings in his lone previous start against them this season. Chad Kuhl is quietly enjoying a terrific campaign in his first year with the Rockies. He's thrived at hitter-friendly Coors Field, posting a 2.48 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in six starts. Kuhl checks in with a 3.95 FIP and 1.31 WHIP, yielding 3.72 runs per nine innings. In his most recent start he tossed a complete game shutout against the Dodgers (we won with the 'under' in that game). Rather than deal with two subpar bullpens in this matchup, we'll stick with the first five innings 'under' only. Take the first five innings under (10*). | |||||||
07-02-22 | Red Sox -140 v. Cubs | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -140 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Game of the Month. My selection is on Boston over Chicago at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. The Cubs got the better of the Red Sox yesterday afternoon but I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday. Josh Winckowski will take the ball for Boston on Saturday. While he’s only worked 20 innings at the big league level, he has impressed, posting a 3.38 FIP and 1.45 WHIP. He’s giving up only 3.6 runs per nine innings. Alec Mills will counter for the Cubs on Saturday. He has recorded 8.27 FIP and 1.73 WHIP in 17 1/3 innings of work this season. Opponents are averaging more than 10 runs per nine innings off of him this season (small sample size, I know). Look for Boston to get back at Chicago here. Take Boston (10*). | |||||||
07-02-22 | Montreal v. Saskatchewan UNDER 46 | 20-41 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Montreal and Saskatchewan at 7 pm et on Saturday. Last week we saw these two teams combine to score 50 points in an Als blowout victory in Montreal. I expect a different story to unfold in Saturday's rematch in Regina. Note that the Als set the tone for that relatively high-scoring affair by returning the opening kickoff for a touchdown. The only offensive touchdown scored prior to garbage time inside the final two minutes of the fourth quarter came early in the second quarter on a Riders defensive breakdown (70-yard touchdown pass by Montreal). I expect a sharper performance from the Saskatchewan defense here at home. On the flip side, the Riders will be without WR Shaq Evans. Montreal has held up reasonably well defensively so far this season, yielding just 63 points through three games, despite playing two of its three contests on the road. While the Als will have QB Vernon Adams Jr. back in the fold for this one, I'm actually not certain that helps their offense as Trevor Harris filled in admirably over the last two games. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
07-02-22 | Braves -167 v. Reds | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta over Cincinnati at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. We won with the Braves on the run-line last night and I like them again in this one as they send rookie Spencer Strider to the hill against Tyler Mahle of the Reds. Strider continues to impress in his rookie campaign, posting a 2.20 FIP and 1.08 WHIP while yielding only 3.35 runs per nine innings. Mahle has labored through the season, recording a 3.38 FIP and 1.27 WHIP, giving up north of 4.7 runs per nine innings. The real issue for the Reds is their bullpen, which has struggled mightily, posting a 9.00 ERA and 2.00 WHIP over the last seven games (entering last night’s action). The Braves ‘pen has recorded a collective 2.48 ERA and 1.08 WHIP with 13 saves converted and only three blown on the road this season. Take Atlanta (8*). | |||||||
07-02-22 | Angels +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 1-9 | Loss | -160 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
MLB A.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles +1.5 runs over Houston at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. I like the advantage the Angels have with Saturday’s starting pitching matchup as they send Patrick Sandoval to the hill against Jose Urquidy. Sandoval has been quietly impressive, recording a 3.21 FIP and 1.37 WHIP this season, giving up only 3.05 runs per nine innings. Urquidy has disappointed, posting a 4.83 FIP and 1.37 WHIP while yielding 4.6 runs per nine frames. Note that the Los Angeles bullpen has been terrific, posting a collective 3.50 ERA and 1.05 WHIP on the road this season (entering last night’s action). The Astros ‘pen is in poor form right now, recording a 5.40 ERA and 1.80 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take Los Angeles +1.5 runs (10*). | |||||||
07-01-22 | Rangers v. Mets -1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
Interleague First Five Innings Game of the Month. My selection is on New York -0.5 runs first five innings over Texas at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The Mets are coming off a two-game sweep at home against the Astros but I look for them to rebound on Friday, at least early on, against the Rangers. Glenn Otto will get the start for Texas. He's had command issues this season and checks in with a 5.19 FIP and 1.51 WHIP, allowing more than five walks per nine innings. Opponents are averaging north of 5.5 runs per nine innings off of the right-hander. Mets starter Chris Bassitt should be happy to face the Rangers - an old A.L. West division rival from his days with the Oakland A's. Bassitt owns a 3.93 FIP and 1.15 WHIP this season, allowing right around 4.1 runs per nine innings. Note that he's pitched well lately, allowing only six earned runs over his last three starts, spanning 21 1/3 innings of work. By playing the first five innings only we'll look to avoid the bullpen matchup here as the Rangers relief corps has admittedly been terrific lately, recording a collective 1.59 ERA and 0.81 WHIP over its last seven games. Take New York -0.5 runs first five innings (10*). | |||||||
07-01-22 | Braves -1.5 v. Reds | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Friday. We went against the Braves last night and were rewarded with a 14-4 Phillies victory in the finale of that divisional series. Here, Atlanta will travel to Cincinnati to face the lowly Reds and I look for them to get their frustrations out. Max Fried continues to rate as one of the best pitchers in baseball, checking in with a 2.58 FIP and 1.05 WHIP this season, allowing only 2.86 runs per nine innings. His counterpart on Friday will be journeyman Mike Minor. He's having a miserable campaign, recording a 7.96 FIP and 1.60 WHIP, albeit with a small sample size of around 25 innings. Opponents have reached Minor for north of 7.7 runs per nine innings. The Braves should have the advantage in the later innings as well as Cincinnati's bullpen has been downright awful lately, posting a collective 9.00 ERA and 2.00 WHIP over the last seven games. The Reds have converted only four saves while blowing four at home this season. Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (9*). | |||||||
06-30-22 | Padres +1.5 v. Dodgers | 1-3 | Loss | -190 | 14 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. The Padres snapped their three-game skid yesterday in Arizona and I look for them to at the very least take the Dodgers down to the wire on Thursday. Joe Musgrove will take the ball for San Diego. He's coming off a rocky outing against the Phillies but that doesn't change the fact that he's firmly planted himself in the N.L. Cy Young award conversation this season, posting a 3.02 FIP and 0.95 WHIP while yielding just north of 2.5 runs per nine innings. Despite the Padres recent struggles as a whole, their bullpen has held up well, posting a 3.46 ERA and 1.04 WHIP over the last seven games (entering yesterday's action). Mitch White will counter for Los Angeles. He's certainly been serviceable at the back-end of the Dodgers rotation this season but his numbers don't compare to Musgrove's. White owns a 4.08 FIP and 1.15 WHIP and gives up north of 4.5 runs per nine innings. I'm most concerned with his home run and walk totals as he's been tagged for 1.2 home runs and 3.0 walks per nine innings. The Dodgers bullpen has of course been terrific although it's worth noting that it has blown five saves (while converting 11) at home this season. Take San Diego +1.5 runs (8*). | |||||||
06-30-22 | BC v. Ottawa OVER 47.5 | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between B.C. and Ottawa at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. Ottawa has seen each of its first two games stay 'under' the total this season as it works a number of new pieces into the fold following many offseason moves. That's not to mention the fact that the RedBlacks faced the two-time defending champion Blue Bombers and their elite defense in each of the first two contests. I do expect Ottawa to fare better offensively in this one as they've had an extra week of practice time following the bye week. B.C. has lit up its first two opponents for 103 points, cruising to a perfect 2-0 start. While Ottawa's defense should be improved this season, or appears so on paper, the RedBlacks allowed Winnipeg to complete north of 70% of its passes through the first two games, not to mention the fact that it allowed 115 rush yards in its most recent game. It's also notable that Ottawa will likely be missing CB Abdul Kanneh for this contest. The Lions will be missing WR Bryan Burnham but I expect them to stay aggressive with QB Nathan Rourke rounding into form in the early going this season. Despite two lopsided affairs, the Lions still attempted a whopping 65 passes in their first two contests. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
06-30-22 | Braves v. Phillies -130 | Top | 4-14 | Win | 100 | 20 h 20 m | Show |
My selection is on Philadelphia over Atlanta at 6:05 pm et on Thursday. The Braves have gotten the better of the Phillies so far in this series. While I did expect Philadelphia to earn a victory in the opener of the series (and they probably should have were it not for a ton of missed scoring opportunities), I felt the Braves were deserving favorites last night with an underrated Kyle Wright on the mound against Ranger Suarez. Here, I believe the Phillies are rightful favorites as they send an underrated arm of their own to the mound in Aaron Nola. Nola has posted a sparkling 2.82 FIP and 0.90 WHIP this season, allowing just shy of 3.1 runs per nine innings. His counterpart on Thursday will be Ian Anderson, who owns a 4.45 FIP and 1.45 WHIP, yielding north of 4.7 runs per nine innings. Entering last night's action, the Braves bullpen had posted a 4.73 ERA and 1.39 WHIP over the last seven games. Meanwhile, the Phillies relief corps had recorded a 2.57 ERA and 0.48 WHIP. Take Philadelphia (10*). | |||||||
06-29-22 | White Sox v. Angels UNDER 7.5 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. This might be the best starting pitching matchup on the entire MLB board on Wednesday as the White Sox send Michael Kopech to the hill against Shohei Ohtani of the Angels. Kopech hasn’t had his best stuff over his last two starts, allowing seven earned runs in 11 innings in consecutive losses against the Astros and Orioles. His overall numbers remain solid, however, as Kopech has posted a 3.62 FIP and 1.01 WHIP while allowing less than 2.9 runs per nine innings. Ohtani has been even better for the Angels, quietly putting together another fine campaign having recorded a 2.76 FIP and 1.01 WHIP while yielding an identical 2.9 runs per nine innings. While the Angels bullpen has been a little uneven lately, it might not be asked to do much here as Ohtani averages over six innings per start at home this season, lasting at least six fames in seven of his last eight outings. Chicago’s ‘pen has been better on the road than at home this season, posting a collective 3.12 ERA and 1.15 WHIP (entering last night’s action). Take the under (8*). | |||||||
06-29-22 | Dodgers -184 v. Rockies | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday. As is often the case, the Rockies appear to be outmatched in terms of the starting pitching matchup on Wednesday. Julio Urias will get the start for the visiting Dodgers. While he hasn’t necessarily been his dominant self, he has still held up reasonably well for Los Angeles this season, posting a 4.10 FIP and 1.01 WHIP while limiting the damage to just 3.3 runs per nine innings. Those numbers are vastly superior to those of his counterpart on Wednesday, German Marquez. The Rockies veteran right-hander has recorded a 4.85 FIP and 1.50 WHIP, giving up more than 10 hits and three walks per nine innings, leading to a whopping 6.25 runs allowed per nine frames. Of course, the later innings should belong to the Dodgers here as well as their bullpen entered last night’s game sporting a 2.49 ERA and 0.99 WHIP over the last seven games. In stark contrast, the Rockies ‘pen had posted a collective 5.40 ERA and 1.38 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Los Angeles (8*). | |||||||
06-29-22 | Reds v. Cubs OVER 8 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. This N.L. Central showdown has all the makings of a slugfest at Wrigley Field on Wednesday. Rookie Hunter Greene will get another turn in the rotation for the Reds, despite his recent struggles. Keep in mind, this will be his second start against the Cubs this season after allowing five earned runs on seven hits, including three home runs, in just five innings of work back in late May (the Reds won that game 20-5). Greene owns an ugly 5.70 FIP and 1.36 WHIP this season, yielding 2.6 home runs per nine innings. Opponents are averaging just shy of 5.7 runs per nine innings off of the right-hander. Behind Green is a Reds bullpen that entered this series sporting a collective 7.53 ERA and 1.53 WHIP over the last seven games. Justin Steele will counter for the Cubs. He’s had an up-and-down season but there have been more downs than ups recently as he has lasted a full six innings just twice in his last seven outings. For the season, Steele has recorded a 3.59 FIP and 1.45 WHIP with his hits (9.0) and walks (4.0) allowed per nine innings certainly a concern. Opponents have reached Steele for an average of 5.29 runs per nine innings. The Cubs bullpen has held up reasonably well lately but has been anything but lights out at Wrigley Field this season, posting a collective 4.58 ERA and 1.32 WHIP with only four saves converted and six blown (entering last night’s action). Take the over (8*). | |||||||
06-29-22 | Marlins -120 v. Cardinals | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
N.L. First Five Innings Game of the Month. My selection is on Miami first five innings over St. Louis at 7:45 pm et on Wednesday. I’ll back the Marlins in the first five innings only on Wednesday as they send Sandy Alcantara to the mound against Andre Pallante of the Cardinals. Alcantara wasn’t at his best in his most recent start but still battled his way through seven innings against the Mets, ultimately foiled by a pair of home runs in the 5-3 setback. Keep in mind, he had given up just one home run in his previous nine outings so it’s not as if we’re seeing an emerging trend in that regard. Alcantara enters Wednesday’s start sporting a fantastic 3.03 FIP and 0.95 WHIP this season, yielding only 2.45 runs per nine innings in over 100 innings of work. Pallante started on four days’ rest for the first time in his young career last time out and pitched reasonably well in a 3-0 home loss to the Cubs (he lasted six innings). I question how he’ll hold up making a second consecutive start on short rest here, however. Pallante has recorded a pedestrian 4.28 FIP and 1.38 WHIP yet has somehow given up only 2.03 runs per nine innings. As good as the Cards defense is, I don’t believe that’s sustainable. We’ll aim to avoid the bullpen matchup here as the Cards have been in much better recent form in that regard and the Marlins have blown eight saves compared to nine converted on the road this season. Take Miami first five innings (10*). | |||||||
06-29-22 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays UNDER 8.5 | 6-5 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. We have a terrific starting pitching matchup lined up on Tuesday in Toronto. Canadian Nick Pivetta will start in his home country for the Red Sox and he’ll do so in fine form, having posted a 3.56 FIP and 1.11 WHIP this season. He has allowed only 3.25 runs per nine innings. Pivetta has struggled in two previous outings against the Blue Jays this season but those came back in April when he was struggling. He’s pitched far better since and I look for him to minimize the damage against a tough Blue Jays lineup on Wednesday. Alek Monoah will counter for Toronto. He’s having a tremendous sophomore campaign, recording a 3.04 FIP and 0.96 WHIP while giving up only 2.36 runs per nine innings. The Jays struggling bullpen is certainly a concern but Manoah has shown the ability to consistently work deep into ball games, particularly here at home where he averages just shy of 6 2/3 innings per start, having made seven starts at Rogers Centre this season. Take the under (9*). | |||||||
06-29-22 | Orioles v. Mariners OVER 8 | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Baltimore and Seattle at 4:10 pm et on Wednesday. The White Sox let Orioles spot starter Austin Voth off the hook in some sense in his most recent outing. I don’t expect the Mariners to be as forgiving on Wednesday afternoon. Voth has worked 27 2/3 innings this season but I’ve seen enough to come to the conclusion that he’s not long for the O’s rotation. Voth has posted a 4.54 FIP and 1.92 WHIP, giving up north of 8.1 runs per nine innings in limited duty this season. Chris Flexen will counter for the Mariners. He has recorded a 4.64 FIP and 1.42 WHIP this season, allowing right around 4.3 runs per nine innings. Flexen continues to walk over 3.0 hitters per nine innings, while also yielding just under 10.0 hits. I expect the O’s to have plenty of scoring opportunities on Wednesday afternoon and I’m confident they can take advantage given how scrappy and productive they’ve been in recent weeks. We actually won with the ‘under’ in last night’s game - a 2-0 Mariners victory that didn’t see a run until the eighth inning - but I expect a much different story to unfold, at least early on, in Wednesday’s series finale. I have too much respect for two of the hottest bullpens in baseball right now so I’ll play the first five innings only here. Take the first five innings over (8*). | |||||||
06-29-22 | Pirates v. Nationals -124 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -124 | 5 h 11 m | Show |
N.L. Non-Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Washington over Pittsburgh at 1:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Pirates and Nationals will conclude their three-game series with a matinee affair in Washington on Wednesday. Pittsburgh will hand the ball to Mitch Keller. He has never really been able to find his way at the big league level and is in the midst of another trying campaign having posted a 4.05 FIP and 1.42 WHIP, allowing north of 4.9 runs per nine innings. To put it simply, he’s allowing far too many hits and walks, 9.1 and 3.7 per nine innings, respectively. Of course the Pirates bullpen isn’t likely to do much behind Keller here, noting it entered last night’s game sporting an ugly 6.07 ERA and 1.50 WHIP with no saves converted and three blown over the last seven games (prior to last night's game). Paolo Espino will get the nod for the Nationals. We won with Washington in Espino’s most recent start as he once again pitched effectively in an eventual 2-1 win over the Rangers last Friday. Espino has lowered his FIP to 3.60 and WHIP to 1.11 and is giving up only 2.43 runs per nine innings this season. We’re not talking about all that small of a sample size either as Espino has worked over 40 innings. The Nationals bullpen has been serviceable lately, recording a collective 3.86 ERA and 1.23 WHIP over its last seven contests (entering last night's game), converting four saves without blowing any over that stretch. Take Washington (10*). | |||||||
06-28-22 | Orioles +1.5 v. Mariners | 0-2 | Loss | -140 | 14 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baltimore +1.5 runs over Seattle at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the ‘under’ in Orioles starter Dean Kremer’s most recent outing as he helped his team to a 4-0 victory over the White Sox in Chicago. Here, we’ll grab the insurance run with Kremer and the O’s as they look to get the better of Robbie Ray and the Mariners. Kremer owns an impressive 3.27 FIP and 1.24 WHIP in four starts, spanning 21 innings of work this season (small sample size, I know). Kremer should be pleased to be making a start in Seattle after he turned in one of his best outings of the season here last season, allowing just one earned run over six innings of two-hit ball in a 5-3 victory. Of course, it’s rarely a bad idea grabbing an insurance run with the O’s as they almost always have the advantage in the later innings with a bullpen that entered this series sporting a 1.11 ERA and 0.74 WHIP over its last seven contests. Baltimore’s relief corps has posted a 3.81 ERA and 1.27 WHIP with 12 saves converted and only one blown on the road this season (entering last night’s action). Robbie Ray has been good but certainly not great in his first season with the Mariners. He checks in with a 4.18 FIP and 1.18 WHIP, allowing just under 4.2 runs per nine innings. The M’s have won just two of Ray’s last 12 starts by 2+ runs. While the Seattle bullpen entered this series with a solid 3.61 ERA and 1.13 WHIP at home the season it has converted only three saves while blowing four (again, entering last night’s action) here in the Pacific Northwest. Take Baltimore +1.5 runs (8*). | |||||||
06-28-22 | Orioles v. Mariners UNDER 7.5 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
A.L. Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Baltimore and Seattle at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. We missed with the 'under' in the opener of this series last night as the Orioles bats came alive against Mariners rookie starter George Kirby in a 9-2 victory. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Tuesday, however, as Baltimore sends Dean Kremer to the mound against reigning A.L. Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray for Seattle. Kremer has shown considerable improvement this season, even if we are talking about just 21 innings of work. He checks in sporting a 3.27 FIP and 1.24 WHIP while allowing only 2.14 runs per nine innings. At the minor league level, Kremer has worked nine shutout innings of two-hit ball this season, recording an impressive 18:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Of course the real star of the show for the Orioles has been their bullpen, which has posted a collective 1.23 ERA and 0.64 WHIP over the last seven games. Robbie Ray will be looking to help his team snap out of a mini two-game skid. He owns an inflated 4.19 FIP but a more respectable 1.18 WHIP on the campaign. Over his last three outings he has posted a sparkling 0.90 ERA and 0.70 WHIP with two of those three contests totalling three runs or less. The Mariners bullpen has had a tough time nailing down saves at home this season with four blown compared to only three converted but does check in with a 0.81 ERA and 0.72 WHIP over its last seven contests. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
06-28-22 | Tigers v. Giants UNDER 7 | 3-4 | Push | 0 | 14 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams were involved in high-scoring affairs last time out but I expect a different story to unfold in Tuesday’s series-opener in San Francisco. Tarik Skubal will get the start for Detroit. He’s been one of the few bright spots in an otherwise dismal season for the Tigers. Skubal checks in with a 2.67 FIP and a 1.13 WHIP. While the fact that he’s allowed just shy of 4.0 runs per nine innings is a bit of a concern, he should benefit from facing a Giants club that has scored three runs or less in seven of its last 11 contests. Behind Skubal is a sneaky-good Tigers bullpen that has posted a terrific 2.76 ERA and 1.09 WHIP on the road this season. Carlos Rodon barely broke a sweat in tossing seven innings of one-run ball against a tough Braves lineup last time out. He has posted a masterful 2.34 FIP and 1.09 WHIP this season, yielding only 2.81 runs per nine innings. The Giants bullpen has been somewhat disappointing this season but has shown signs of improvement lately, recording a collective 3.86 ERA and 1.25 WHIP over its last seven games. Facing a Tigers club that averages only 2.7 runs per game on the road this season should be music to the Giants relief corps’ ears. As should working behind Rodon as he has gone at least six innings in three consecutive starts. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
06-28-22 | White Sox +117 v. Angels | Top | 11-4 | Win | 117 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
A.L. Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Chicago over Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the Angels in the first five innings in last night's eventual 4-3 win in the opener of this series. I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the White Sox on Tuesday, however. Johnny Cueto has 'turned back the clock' for Chicago so far this season, posting a 3.63 FIP and 1.15 WHIP, allowing less than 3.4 runs per nine innings. The White Sox bullpen continues to hold up well on the road this season, recording a collective 3.12 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. Rookie Chase Silseth will counter for Los Angeles. Things haven't gone swimmingly in his first four big league starts as he has posted a 6.44 FIP and 1.47 WHIP, yielding just shy of 5.0 runs per nine innings. The Angels bullpen has been better this year than it was last season but that's not saying much. Note that the L.A. relief corps has only managed to convert 12 saves compared to eight blown at home this season. Take Chicago (10*). | |||||||
06-28-22 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Rockies | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -135 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
N.L. Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday. I can’t help but feel Clayton Kershaw has become an undervalued commodity at this stage of his storied career (you might not know it by the moneyline in this game but I believe it could be even higher). We successfully backed Kershaw in his most recent start against the Reds and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well as he takes the ball at Coors Field in Denver on Tuesday. Kershaw settled in nicely in his second start since returning from the I.L., holding Cincinnati to one earned run over six innings, and brings a 2.44 FIP and 0.91 WHIP into this contest. Opponents have reached Kershaw for just 2.0 runs per nine innings this season. Kyle Freeland will counter for Colorado. He owns a pedestrian 4.14 FIP and 1.37 WHIP this season. Freeland has allowed 2.9 more hits and 1.2 more walks per nine innings compared to Kershaw this season. Making the majority of his starts at Coors Field certainly factors in but Freeland has given up just under 4.9 runs per nine innings this season. Of course, Los Angeles should have the edge in the later innings in this one as well with a bullpen that entered last night’s action sporting a 3.29 ERA and 1.21 WHIP over its last seven games. The Rockies ‘pen entered this series having recorded a 5.49 ERA and 1.48 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (10*). | |||||||
06-28-22 | Braves v. Phillies -113 | 5-3 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over Atlanta at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Phillies lost Bryce Harper to a broken thumb but did take three of four games from the Padres in San Diego. Now they return home to host the division-rival Braves who are fresh off an emotionally-charged series against former teammate Freddie Freeman and the Dodgers (they lost two out of three games). Atlanta is dealing with injury issues of its own with Ozzie Albies recently sidelined and Ronald Acuna Jr. dealing with a nagging foot injury. Charlie Morton will take the ball for the Braves on Tuesday. He’s been pitching well lately but it’s worth noting that his last three starts have come against the Pirates, Cubs and Giants. He has actually struggled on the road this season, recording a 5.64 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. Overall this season, Morton has posted a 4.19 FIP and 1.28 WHIP, allowing just shy of five runs per nine innings. Behind Morton is a Braves bullpen that has posted a 4.62 ERA and 1.54 WHIP over its last seven games, most recently coughing up a late lead against the Dodgers on Sunday. Zack Wheeler will counter for Philadelphia. We backed the Phillies in his most recent start as they came up short by a 4-2 score against Texas. Wheeler didn’t have his best stuff on that afternoon but his overall numbers don’t lie. Wheeler owns a sparkling 2.27 FIP and a 1.11 WHIP, yielding just 3.25 runs per nine innings on the season. The Phillies bullpen turned things around on its most recent road trip, checking in with a 3.33 ERA and 0.74 WHIP over its last seven contests. Take Philadelphia (8*). | |||||||
06-28-22 | A's v. Yankees UNDER 8 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Oakland and New York at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. We have a terrific starting pitching matchup on tap in the Bronx on Tuesday as the A’s send Frankie Montas to the hill against rookie J.P. Sears for the Yankees. Montas has endured a couple of rocky stretches this season but his overall numbers have levelled out as he’s posted a 3.15 FIP and 1.08 WHIP in 89 2/3 innings of work. He’s averaging a full six innings per start which certainly isn’t commonplace in today’s MLB. While the A’s bullpen has generally been a disappointment this season, the hope is that we won’t have to see too much of it on Tuesday and I will point out that it has held up better on the road than at home, recording a collective 3.81 ERA and 1.33 WHIP entering last night’s action. Sears has made just three appearances with the big club in the Bronx, including one start. In seven innings of work he’s yet to allow an earned run. His minor league numbers at AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre jump off the page as he’s posted a 1.83 ERA and 0.74 WHIP to go along with a 50:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 39 1/3 innings of work. He has given up just 2.75 runs per nine innings at the AAA level. Sears can pitch confidently here knowing that the A’s hit just north of .200 as a team against left-handed starters this season, averaging only 3.2 runs per game along the way. Behind Sears is one of the best bullpens in baseball as the Yanks’ relief corps enters tonight’s game sporting a 1.21 ERA and 0.90 WHIP over their last seven contests. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
06-27-22 | Orioles v. Mariners UNDER 7.5 | 9-2 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Baltimore and Seattle at 10:10 pm et on Monday. These two teams certainly know their way around low-scoring games with the Orioles entering Monday's matchup off seven consecutive 'under' results and the Mariners checking in sporting a 3-11-1 o/u mark over their last 15 contests. I expect a similar story to unfold on Monday. Tyler Wells will take the ball for the Orioles. It's easy to forget that he posted a terrific 3.63 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in 57 innings of work during his rookie campaign last year. While he got off to a bit of a slow start this season he's since rounded into form, lowering his FIP to 4.28 and his WHIP to 1.10. Opponents are averaging just north of 3.3 runs per nine innings against him. Mariners rookie George Kirby will be Wells' counterpart on Monday. He has recorded a 3.76 FIP and 1.12 WHIP while yielding under 3.9 runs per nine innings during his rookie season. It gets better. This matchup pits two of the league's best bullpens based on current form. The O's 'pen has posted a collective 1.11 ERA and 0.74 WHIP over its last seven games and has converted 12 saves while blowing just one on the road this season. Seattle has arguably been even better in that department lately, recording a 0.44 ERA and 0.89 WHIP over its last seven contests. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
06-27-22 | White Sox v. Angels -125 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles first five innings over Chicago at 9:35 pm et on Monday. We won with the White Sox yesterday as they salvaged the finale of their four-game series against the Orioles but just barely as they prevailed by a 4-3 score. Here, we'll go back to fading Chicago, at least in the first five innings, as it heads to Anaheim to open a series against the Angels. Los Angeles also won yesterday, avoiding a sweep at the hands of the division-rival Mariners. On Monday, Los Angeles will hand the ball to Noah Syndergaard. While he's had an up-and-down first season in Anaheim, he has posted a 4.02 FIP and 1.20 WHIP, allowing just shy of 4.2 runs per nine innings. I liked the way he battled in his most recent start, working into the eighth inning for the second time in his last five outings. Chicago will counter with Lucas Giolito. He simply hasn't been able to regain previous form this season, recording a 5.08 FIP and 1.56 WHIP. Opponents have lit him up for north of 5.8 runs per nine innings. It seems that something just isn't right with the right-hander as he's been tagged for 15 earned runs in his last two starts alone. I don't see any considerable advantage for the Angels in the later innings in this one - in fact, the White Sox bullpen has been a bright spot, posting a collective 3.03 ERA and 1.13 WHIP with 12 saves converted and only five blown on the road this season. The Angels have converted 11 saves while blowing eight at home. We'll back the Halos in the first five innings only here. Take Los Angeles first five innings (8*). | |||||||
06-27-22 | Dodgers v. Rockies UNDER 11.5 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Monday. The Rockies had their three-game 'under' streak snapped in a 6-3 loss in Minnesota yesterday. Still, it's worth noting that since scoring eight runs in the first game of their road trip last week, they've been held to a grand total of 10 runs over their last five contests. All three games in the Dodgers weekend series in Atlanta stayed 'under the total, even with last night's game going to extra innings. Los Angeles is of course still missing Mookie Betts after he suffered a rib injury last week. While tonight's starting pitching matchup won't grab headlines, I feel it's a good one. Dodgers starter Tyler Anderson is having a terrific season, recording a 3.29 FIP and 0.97 WHIP while allowing just north of 3.1 runs per nine innings. He didn't have his best stuff last time out against Cincinnati but still gave up just three earned runs over five innings. Anderson checks in sporting a 3.13 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in six road starts this season. Colorado will counter with Chad Kuhl. While his numbers certainly don't jump off the page, he's actually having a career year by most accounts. Kuhl has posted a 4.21 FIP and 1.43 WHIP while yielding 4.21 runs per nine innings. He's actually settled in nicely at hitter-friendly Coors Field, recording a 3.29 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 27 1/3 innings of work. While the Rockies bullpen has been shaky lately, it has generally pitched better here at home, sporting a collective 4.23 ERA and 1.30 WHIP with 11 saves converted and only four blown. The Dodgers 'pen has of course been lights out for much of the season. It entered last night's action with a 3.24 ERA and 1.08 WHIP over its last seven contests and has blown just one save (compared to seven converted) on the road this season. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
06-27-22 | Rangers -135 v. Royals | 10-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas over Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The Rangers just dropped two of three games at home against the Nationals. Not good. They're still 5-4 over their last nine games and have a favorable starting pitching matchup in Monday's series-opener against the Royals in Kansas City. I hesitate to say that Rangers starter Martin Perez has 'turned back the clock' this season as he's pitching better than he has at any point previously in his career. Perez checks in sporting a Cy Young Award-caliber 2.62 FIP and 1.13 WHIP, allowing only 2.47 runs per nine innings. He already tamed the Royals once this season, yielding just one earned run over 6 1/3 innings back in early May. You would have to go back four starts against Kansas City to find the last time Perez didn't pitch his team to victory (back in 2019). Royals starter Kris Bubic is coming off back-to-back solid outings including arguably his best start of the season last time out against the Angels (he allowed two earned runs over six innings). His overall numbers don't lie, however, as he's posted a 5.36 FIP and 1.79 WHIP this season. Opponents have reached Bubic for north of 7.4 runs per nine innings. Of course, there's little reason to trust the Royals bullpen as it has posted a collective 5.25 ERA and 1.60 WHIP at home this season. The Rangers 'pen has actually held up well, recording a 3.09 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over the last seven games and a 3.22 ERA and 1.26 WHIP on the road, where it has converted nine saves while blowing four. Take Texas (8*). | |||||||
06-27-22 | Pirates v. Nationals OVER 8.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The Pirates are coming off a frustrating series sweep at the hands of the Rays in St. Petersburg as they were close in all three games but ultimately couldn't finish the job. A big reason for that is their fading bullpen. Pittsburgh's relief corps enters Monday's game having posted a collective 5.61 ERA and 1.52 WHIP over the last seven games. That doesn't bode well as Miguel Yajure will get a spot start for the Buccos in the opener of this series in Washington. He owns a career 7.00 FIP and 1.67 WHIP in 32 1/3 career innings at the big league level. So far this season, Yajure has pitched only 10 1/3 innings and it hasn't been pretty as he's been tagged for 13 earned runs on 16 hits and six walks. Washington will hand the ball to Erick Fedde. He's been his usual inconsistent self this season, recording a 4.25 FIP and 1.47 WHIP, allowing just shy of 4.6 runs per nine innings. Fedde tossed six shutout innings against Baltimore in his most recent start but that came on the road. Here at home, he owns a 5.03 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in seven starts. The Pirates will be getting their second look at him this season. Behind Fedde is a Nationals bullpen that has been pedestrian at best lately, posting a collective 4.34 ERA and 1.34 WHIP over its last seven games. Pirates hitters ran into some incredibly tough pitching against the Rays and should be more than happy to move on to Washington where the Nats allow 5.4 runs per game. Take the over (9*). | |||||||
06-26-22 | Avalanche -113 v. Lightning | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 36 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado over Tampa Bay at 8:15 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Lightning in Game 3, the Avalanche in Game 4 and the Lightning on the puck-line in Game 4. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears once again and back Colorado as it looks to hoist the Stanley Cup on Sunday night in Tampa. Credit the Lightning for battling their way to a hard-fought 3-2 victory in Game 5 of this series on Friday. It wasn't all that difficult to see coming, however, as we're talking about the two-time defending Stanley Cup champions. The fourth win in a series is always the most difficult when it comes to the Stanley Cup Playoffs and the Avalanche have found that out first hand in each and every series so far. Just as they did against St. Louis in the second round, I look for Colorado to bounce back from a home loss in Game 5 with a road win in Game 6. There's no question the Avalanche have been the better team in this series but they obviously felt the pressure playing in front of the Cup-starved (Colorado's last Stanley Cup was won in 2001) home faithful. Look for the Avs to play much looser in Game 6 and ultimately prevail. Take Colorado (10*). | |||||||
06-26-22 | Avalanche v. Lightning UNDER 6 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 34 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Tampa Bay at 8:15 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'under' in Game 5 of this series on Friday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play in Game 6 on Sunday. This series has certainly taken a turn since Tampa Bay delivered a 6-2 win in Game 3. Since then, we've seen consecutive 3-2 results. Now with the series shifting back to Tampa, there's little reason to expect anything different as the Lightning once again try to stay alive in this series. Keep in mind, Tampa Bay, while known for its offensive prowess, has been incredibly stingy on home ice this season, allowing only 2.5 goals per game. It gave up just four goals in regulation time against the high-powered Avs offense in Games 3 and 4 here at home. In fact, it has held Colorado to exactly two goals in regulation time in three straight contests. The Avs can play some defense as well. They've allowed less than 3.0 goals per game in the playoffs. On the three previous occasions they've come off a loss in these playoffs, they've given up exactly two goals in their next game each time, with the 'under' cashing in two of those three games. Expect a tightly-contested, relatively low-scoring affair on Sunday. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
06-26-22 | Orioles v. White Sox -195 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Baltimore at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. The White Sox have looked awful in the first three games of this series - there's no question about that. I do expect them to bounce back on Sunday as they send their best starter to the hill in Dylan Cease against Jordan Lyles of the Orioles. Cease has quietly put together a terrific campaign so far, recording a 2.59 FIP and 1.28 WHIP while allowing just under 3.9 runs per nine innings. In fact, he hasn't allowed a single earned run over his last five starts. While the White Sox bullpen has struggled for the most part this season, it has actually shown signs of turning things around lately, recording a collective 3.51 ERA and 1.09 WHIP over its last seven games entering yesterday's action (it tossed 2+ innings of shutout ball in yesterday's loss). Jordan Lyles has looked very 'Jordan Lyles-like' for the Orioles this season, posting a 4.31 FIP and 1.50 WHIP and giving up just shy of 5.5 runs per nine innings. The White Sox saw him last September and lit him up for five earned runs over just 3 2/3 innings in a 7-2 victory. Take Chicago (6*). | |||||||
06-26-22 | Pirates v. Rays -1.5 | 2-4 | Win | 110 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay -1.5 runs over Pittsburgh at 1:40 pm et on Sunday. The Pirates have certainly been snake-bitten in this series, dropping consecutive games by a single run, one coming in extra innings and the other in walk-off fashion in a game they led 5-3 in the eighth inning yesterday. Here, I don't anticipate the game being as close as the Rays send their ace Shane McClanahan to the hill against rookie Roansy Contreras of the Buccos. McClanahan has firmly planted himself in the A.L. Cy Young Award conversation this season, posting a 2.74 FIP and 0.85 WHIP while allowing only 2.35 runs per nine innings. The Rays have dropped his last two starts with each of those coming against the best team in baseball, the New York Yankees. Prior to that they had won each of McClanahan's last seven trips to the hill. Contreras is having a fine season by rookie standards. However, I will point out that he'll be starting on four days' rest for just the second time this season and in the previous two outings he gave up 11 hits and five earned runs in just 9 1/3 innings of work. Contreras checks in with a 4.11 FIP and 1.29 WHIP this season, again those are solid numbers, but don't really compare to McClanahan's. Also note that the Rays should continue to have a big advantage in the later innings with a bullpen that entered yesterday's action sporting a 2.78 ERA and 1.06 WHIP at home this season. The Pirates 'pen has really struggled, entering yesterday's game with a 5.06 ERA and 1.46 WHIP over its last seven games (and proceeded to cough up the two-run lead in yesterday's loss). Take Tampa Bay -1.5 runs (9*). | |||||||
06-26-22 | Astros v. Yankees -155 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Houston at 1:35 pm et on Sunday. The Yankees could just as easily have dropped all three games in this series as they've only managed to salvage the opener in come-from-behind walk-off fashion. I do look for them to close out the series on a positive note on Sunday. Jose Urquidy will take the ball for Houston. He checks in sporting a pedestrian 4.75 FIP and 1.46 WHIP, allowing north of 11.0 walks and just shy of 5.0 runs per nine innings. It's been a much different story for Yankees starter Nestor Cortes Jr. He has posted a 3.32 FIP and 0.96 WHIP, allowing only 2.43 runs per nine innings. Cortes has yielded 4.8 fewer hits per nine innings compared to Urquidy. As I've mentioned previously in this series, the bullpens are virtually a wash with both relief corps' pitching effectively. Here, I look for the Yankees bats against Urquidy to prove to be the difference. Take New York (10*). | |||||||
06-25-22 | Sparks v. Storm -9 | Top | 85-77 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
WNBA Game of the Week. My selection is on Seattle minus the points over Los Angeles at 9 pm et on Saturday. The Storm have quietly rounded back into form, going 6-1 SU and 4-3 ATS over their last seven games, including back-to-back SU and ATS victories entering Saturday's contest against the Sparks. Seattle has been 'filling it up', knocking down 37, 29, 28, 28, 32 and 31 field goals over its last six games and should be able to keep it going against a weak Los Angeles defense that has yielded 32+ made field goals in seven of its last 10 games. The Sparks offense has been wildly inconsistent lately. After scoring 82 and 84 points over a two-game stretch it was held to just 59 points on 26-of-79 shooting against a vulnerable Chicago defense last time out. The Storm took the first meeting between these two teams by just three points back in May. Keep in mind, that matchup came at a time when Seattle was playing an uneven brand of basketball. The Sparks shot the lights out in that contest, something I don't anticipate them doing here. Take Seattle (10*). | |||||||
06-25-22 | Reds v. Giants -1.5 | 2-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco -1.5 runs over Cincinnati at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. The Reds got the better of the struggling Giants in the opener of this series last night, taking advantage of a starting pitching advantage with impressive rookie Graham Ashcraft turning in another fine outing. I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday as San Francisco hands the ball to its ace Logan Webb against Reds struggling veteran right-hander Mike Minor. Webb went through a bit of a rough patch earlier this season but has once again righted the ship and checks in with a 3.05 FIP and 1.16 WHIP, allowing only 3.36 runs per nine innings on the campaign. He faced the Reds once last season, tossing six shutout innings in an eventual 6-3 Giants victory here at Oracle Park. As I mentioned, Reds starter Mike Minor has had a rough go since joining the rotation. He's recorded an ugly 7.33 FIP and 1.50 WHIP while giving up just shy of 7.0 runs per nine innings in four starts covering 20 2/3 innings of work. Behind Minor is a Reds bullpen that entered last night's game with a collective 7.83 ERA and 1.78 WHIP over its last seven contests. Take San Francisco -1.5 runs (10*). | |||||||
06-25-22 | Red Sox v. Guardians UNDER 8.5 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Cleveland at 6:10 pm et on Saturday. The Red Sox took the opener of this series last night by a 6-3 score. I'm anticipating a lower-scoring contest on Saturday as Boston sends rookie Josh Winckowski to the hill against Guardians ace Shane Bieber. Winckowski hasn't exactly faced the toughest slate of opponents so far, going up against the Orioles, A's and Tigers in his first three big league starts, with all three coming at home no less. With that being said, I like what I've seen from the rookie. He was a little shaky in his debut against the O's but since then has given up just two earned runs in 11 2/3 innings of work. After issuing three walks in his first career start he's handed out only two free passes over his last two outings. While we're dealing with a small sample size, Winckowski checks in with a respectable 3.80 FIP and has allowed just under 3.7 runs per nine innings. It's not as if the Guardians have been tearing the cover off the ball either, scoring three runs or less in four of their last seven contests. Shane Bieber has rounded into form this season, posting a 2.70 FIP and 1.17 WHIP while giving up just 3.35 runs per nine innings. Behind him is a terrific Guardians bullpen that has recorded a collective 2.33 ERA and 1.04 WHIP at home this season (entering last night's action). The Red Sox 'pen has posted a 3.46 ERA and 1.21 WHIP on the road (also entering last night's game). Take the under (8*). | |||||||
06-25-22 | Mets -144 v. Marlins | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Miami at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. The Mets took the opener of this series last night and we'll get behind them on Saturday as they look to continue their recent dominance over the Marlins. Chris Bassitt will take the ball for New York. He's been good but not great this season. He deserved a better fate than a 6-2 loss against these same Marlins last week as he allowed just three earned runs on five hits while striking out nine and walking only two in 6 1/3 innings of work. For the season, Bassitt has posted a 3.80 FIP and 1.17 WHIP. His 4.17 runs allowed per nine innings is a little concerning but still a far cry from what his opponent today, Trevor Rogers, has given up. Rogers may not be long for the Marlins rotation if he continues to struggle. He's recorded an ugly 4.89 FIP and 1.62 WHIP this season while yielding just shy of 6.3 runs per nine innings. Note that he's allowing 2.3 more hits and 1.8 more walks per nine innings compared to Bassitt. The Bullpens are virtually a wash in this matchup but we can confidently get behind the Mets with the expectation that they can build a considerable early lead. Take New York (8*). | |||||||
06-25-22 | Blue Jays v. Brewers -151 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee over Toronto at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. The Blue Jays got the better of the Brewers in last night's series opener, using a strong starting pitching edge to their advantage with Alek Manoah against Adrian Houser. Here, we should see a different story unfold as it's the Brewers that have the advantage on the mound with ace Corbin Burnes going up against a struggling Yusei Kikuchi. Burnes has had a few hiccups with his command in the early going this season but has generally straightened things out and owns a terrific 2.91 FIP and 0.92 WHIP. Opponents are averaging only 2.63 runs per nine innings against the right-hander. It's been a much different story for Kikuchi. The Blue Jays hoped he would provide some stability at the back of their rotation after coming over from the Mariners but that hasn't been the case. Kikuchi checks in sporting a 5.53 FIP and 1.52 WHIP. He's giving up just shy of 6.0 walks and almost two home runs per nine innings with opponents averaging 5.43 runs off of him. Off last night's loss, the Brewers don't figure to be in a forgiving mood on Saturday. Note that Milwaukee should also have the edge in the later innings as its bullpen entered last night's game sporting a 1.21 ERA and 0.90 WHIP over the last seven games. In stark contrast, the Jays 'pen recorded a 7.29 ERA and 1.77 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Milwaukee (8*). | |||||||
06-25-22 | Orioles v. White Sox -1.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
MLB First Five Innings Game of the Year. My selection is on Chicago -0.5 runs first five innings over Baltimore at 2:10 pm et on Saturday. I'll lay the half-run with the White Sox in the first five innings against the Orioles on Saturday as they look to get back on track after dropping the first two games of this series in somewhat embarrassing fashion. Spenser Watkins gets a spot start for the Orioles. He's made eight previous starts this season and they haven't gone well. Watkins checks in sporting a 6.15 FIP and 1.70 WHIP. You could argue that we're talking about a fairly small sample size but it's worth noting that Watkins also posted a 6.37 FIP and 1.70 WHIP in 53 2/3 innings of work last season. His counterpart today will be veteran right-hander Lance Lynn. Lynn hasn't pitched well in his first two starts back from injury. With that being said, I think there were positives to take away from his last outing against the Blue Jays. He gave up just four hits over five innings in that contest with the Sox prevailing by an 8-7 score. The White Sox bats have certainly come alive in Lynn's previous two outings, producing a grand total of 17 runs. Lynn faced the Orioles once last year and tossed five shutout innings in an eventual 3-1 victory. By playing the first five innings only we'll look to avoid the bullpen matchup here with the O's 'pen having posted a 1.00 ERA and 0.78 WHIP over its last seven games. The Chicago 'pen owns an ugly 5.37 ERA and 1.55 WHIP at home this season with only nine saves converted compared to eight blown. Take Chicago -0.5 runs first five innings (10*). | |||||||
06-25-22 | Cubs v. Cardinals -175 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis over Chicago at 2:15 pm et on Saturday. The Cardinals were shut out in last night's series-opener against the Cubs - their second consecutive loss. I look for them to bounce back on Saturday as they have the right pitcher on the mound in Miles Mikolas. The right-hander has posted a 3.51 FIP and 0.97 WHIP this season, yielding only 2.84 runs per nine innings. In 10 career starts against Chicago, Mikolas has posted a 2.70 ERA and 0.80 WHIP. You would have to go back four starts to find the last time the Cubs defeated the Cards with Mikolas starting, back in July 2019. Interestingly, his counterpart on that night was Kyle Hendricks, who of course locked down the Cards in last night's shutout victory. Adrian Sampson will get a spot start for Chicago after an effective extended relief appearance. In limited big league work last year, Sampson posted a terrific 2.80 ERA but his 5.72 FIP told a much different story. Prior to getting called up this season, Sampson had recorded a pedestrian 3.81 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 28 1/3 innings pitched at AAA Iowa. The Cardinals bullpen has been among the best in baseball lately, posting a collective 1.80 ERA and 0.84 WHIP over the last seven games. The Cubs 'pen has been solid lately as well, but certainly hasn't been reliable on the road this season, recording a 4.78 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. Take St. Louis (8*). | |||||||
06-24-22 | Hamilton v. Winnipeg OVER 42.5 | Top | 12-26 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 56 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Hamilton and Winnipeg at 8:30 pm et on Friday. The Blue Bombers have not surprisingly opened the season with consecutive low-scoring games against the Ottawa RedBlacks. I expect a different story to unfold this week, however, as they return home to host the winless Tiger-Cats. Hamilton jumped ahead 17-0 in the first quarter against Calgary in its home-opener last Saturday. Then we saw perhaps some complacency set in as the Ti-Cats allowed the Stampeders to get right back in the game and ultimately fell by a 33-30 score in overtime in the wildest game of the season to date. There were concerns entering the new season that the Ti-Cats defense might struggle with the new field layout and rule changes and that's been precisely the case through two games as they've allowed 30+ points against both Saskatchewan and Calgary. Things won't get any easier here as they face the two-time defending Grey Cup champion Blue Bombers on the road. Winnipeg hasn't been lighting up the scoreboard but it hasn't needed to. Game flow has dictated a pair of relatively low-scoring results against Ottawa - an opponent that's still finding its way with a new starting quarterback in former Ti-Cat Jeremiah Masoli. Hamilton looks a little more settled on offense with QB Dane Evans completing 60-of-86 passes for just shy of 800 yards through two games. We've already seen the Bombers show some vulnerability defending the pass, allowing Masoli and the RedBlacks to rack up 711 passing yards over the last two games against them. These two teams met twice last season and both games featured higher closing totals than we're dealing with this week. Note that the most recent matchup produced 58 total points. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
06-24-22 | Lightning v. Avalanche UNDER 6 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 34 h 34 m | Show |
Stanley Cup Final Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and Colorado at 8:15 pm et on Friday. We finally saw an 'under' result in this series in Game 4 as the Avalanche rallied twice from one-goal deficits to defeat the Lightning 3-2 in overtime, pushing them to the brink of elimination as the series shifts back to Colorado for Game 5 on Friday. I'm anticipating another relatively low-scoring affair. Note that low-scoring games tend to come in bunches for the Lightning, with the 'under' going 28-19 with Tampa Bay coming off an 'under' result this season, leading to an average total of 5.5 goals in that spot. Better still, the 'under' is 20-8 the last 28 times the Bolts laced them up for Game 5 of a playoff series, resulting in only 4.5 total goals on average. The Avs are of course known for their explosive offense but it's worth noting they've been incredibly stingy on home ice this season, allowing just 2.6 goals per game. Remember, they shut out the Lightning the last time these two met in Denver in Game 2. Tampa Bay has done a much better job of containing the Avs offense over the last two games, allowing only four goals in regulation time. While home ice certainly made a different, here, we'll note that the Lightning have allowed just 1.9 goals per game when playing on the road after losing three of their last four games over the last three seasons (14-game sample size), as is the case here, leading to an average total of 5.6 goals in that situation. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
06-24-22 | Lightning +1.5 v. Avalanche | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 33 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay +1.5 goals over Colorado at 8:15 pm et on Friday. It's been interesting to see how this series has played out to this point. Most wrote off the Lightning after their 7-0 drubbing in Game 2. However, they returned home and righted the ship with a 6-2 victory. That had most believing in the Bolts entering Game 4 (we weren't in that group, cashing our 10* Game of the Year with the Avalanche). Now everyone is quick to write off the two-time defending Stanley Cup champions once again. While Tampa Bay obviously faces a massive uphill battle, I believe it can at the very least take the Avalanche down to the wire on Friday night. That fourth victory can be especially tough to get when it comes to the Stanley Cup Playoffs. The Avalanche know that, after all they lost a potential series-clinching Game 5 on home ice against St. Louis in the second round and then needed overtime to get past Edmonton in Game 4 last round. Here, we'll note that the Lightning are an incredible 41-15 when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 1.2 goals on average in that situation. Better still, they're 13-1 when playing on the road after losing three of their last four games over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.8 goals. Take Tampa Bay +1.5 goals (9*). | |||||||
06-24-22 | Cubs v. Cardinals -151 | 3-0 | Loss | -151 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis over Chicago at 8:15 pm et on Friday. The Cubs are a mess right now and it's not just one area of the game they're struggling in. Chicago has dropped 14 of its last 17 games overall and might have hit rock-bottom in Pittsburgh this week, losing three out of four games, giving up a whopping 32 runs while committing 10 errors in the field. Things aren't likely to get any easier as they head to St. Louis to face a Cardinals club that managed a 2-2 split in Milwaukee earlier this week and checks in 8-6 over its last 14 games. Kyle Hendricks was once a steadying force in the Cubs rotation but not this season. He has posted a 5.19 FIP and 1.35 WHIP while allowing north of 5.4 runs per nine innings. While the Cubs bullpen behind Hendricks has held up well lately, it still owns a collective 4.84 ERA and 1.37 WHIP on the road this season. Andre Pallante will get his fourth start of the season for the Cardinals. He's held up reasonably well overall this season, recording a 4.02 FIP and 1.34 WHIP. Interestingly, he's done a tremendous job of limiting damage, yielding just under 1.7 runs per nine innings. Having a tremendous defense behind him helps. I mentioned the Cubs woes in the field - on the flip side, you would have to go back eight games to find the last time the Cardinals committed an error. The St. Louis bullpen has posted a collective 3.62 ERA and 1.21 WHIP with eight saves converted and only two blown at home this season and has been even better lately, recording a 2.66 ERA and 1.01 WHIP over its last seven games. Take St. Louis (8*). | |||||||
06-24-22 | Rockies v. Twins OVER 9 | 1-0 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Colorado and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams are coming off low-scoring games yesterday. I expect a much different story to unfold on Friday but rather than play the full game 'over' the total, we'll look at the first five innings only as I really like the way this starting pitching matchup sets up for the hitters. German Marquez will take the ball for Colorado. To say that he's struggled this season would be an understatement. Marquez enters Friday's start sporting a 4.89 FIP and 1.55 WHIP. Opponents are laying waste to the veteran right-hander to the tune of 6.9 runs per nine innings. Of course, the Twins aren't in much better shape on the mound with Dylan Bundy getting the nod. He did turn in his best outing of the season last time out against Arizona. However, the full season numbers tell the story as he has recorded a 4.52 FIP and 1.32 WHIP, allowing 5.3 runs per nine innings. Both teams enter this game having averaged 5+ runs per game over the last week. Expect early offense at Target Field on Friday. Take the first five innings over (8*). | |||||||
06-24-22 | Orioles v. White Sox -157 | 4-1 | Loss | -157 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago first five innings over Baltimore at 8:10 pm et on Friday. After a productive three-game series against the Blue Jays earlier in the week, the White Sox were blanked in the opener of this series with the Orioles last night. I look for them to get back on track on Friday, at least early on in this rematch with Baltimore. Austin Voth will get another spot start for the Orioles. He worked just 2 2/3 innings against the Rays last Sunday and not a lot will likely be asked of him here either. I do expect the White Sox bats to get to him, however, noting that Voth has posted an ugly 4.71 FIP and 2.03 WHIP in 24 2/3 innings of work this season with opponents averaging a whopping 8.76 runs per nine innings against him. Note that while Voth managed to get through 2 2/3 innings relatively unscathed against the Rays last time out, things might have been different were the Rays not thrown at home on a play in the second inning. Chicago will counter with Michael Kopech. While he's had some command issues at times, he has still recorded a terrific 0.99 WHIP to go along with a 3.49 FIP. I mentioned the command issues as Kopech is yielding 4.0 walks per nine innings but he's managed to limit the damage (he allows just 2.7 runs per nine innings) thanks to holding opponents to just under 5.0 hits and 0.6 home runs per nine innings. We'll play the first five innings only in this one as the O's do hold a significant advantage when it comes to the bullpens in this game (Baltimore's bullpen has a 1.50 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over the last seven games while Chicago's relief corps' has posted a 4.91 ERA and 1.25 WHIP over the same stretch). Take Chicago first five innings (8*). | |||||||
06-24-22 | Nationals +154 v. Rangers | Top | 2-1 | Win | 154 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Washington over Texas at 8:05 pm et on Friday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Nationals as they look to bounce back from a shutout loss in Baltimore (we won with the Orioles in that game) and start this three-game interleague set in Texas with a victory on Friday. The starting pitching matchup will feature Paolo Espino of the Nationals against Dane Dunning for the Rangers. While Dunning had a terrific campaign last year, he's struggled here in 2022. The right-hander enters Friday's start with a 4.00 FIP and 1.33 WHIP, allowing 4.5 runs per nine innings. You would have to go back three home starts to find the last time he was on the hill for a Rangers win here in Texas. Espino will get another spot start for the Nats. While he's made only two starts, he has worked 35 1/3 innings this season, posting a solid 3.39 FIP and 1.08 WHIP. Opponents have reached Espino for just north of 2.5 runs per nine innings. While the Nationals bullpen has been awful on the road for the most part this season, it has shown signs of turning things around lately, recording a collective 3.51 ERA and 1.33 WHIP over the last seven games overall. The Rangers 'pen has converted only eight saves while blowing six here at home this season. As poorly as things have gone for Washington, it actually averages more runs per game on the road (4.4) than Texas does at home (4.2). Finally, I'll note that Texas checks in a woeful 14-23 in its last 37 games as a favorite, outscored by 0.9 runs on average along the way. Take Washington (10*). | |||||||
06-24-22 | Pirates v. Rays -1.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay -1.5 runs over Pittsburgh at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The Pirates have enjoyed an offensive surge lately, keyed by some top prospect call-ups. While they prevailed by an 8-7 score against the Cubs yesterday, they're just a day removed from a 14-5 loss. I believe the Rays have a significant starting pitching advantage here with Jeffrey Springs taking the ball against Mitch Keller for the Buccos. Springs checks in with a terrific 2.98 FIP and 0.98 WHIP this season, allowing only 2.0 runs per nine innings. Behind him is a Rays bullpen that has posted a collective 2.85 ERA and 1.09 WHIP at home this season. Keller has managed to string together a number of quality starts but I'm not sure his success is sustainable. Note that he owns a 4.25 FIP and 1.44 WHIP this season, giving up just shy of 4.9 runs per nine innings. While the Rays offense has been somewhat disappointing, particularly at home, the Pirates average just 3.2 runs per game on the road. Also note that the Pittsburgh bullpen has been shaky at best lately, recording a 5.00 ERA and 1.44 WHIP over their last seven games. Take Tampa Bay -1.5 runs (10*). | |||||||
06-24-22 | Astros v. Yankees UNDER 7.5 | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and New York at 7:05 pm et on Friday. We missed with the 'under' in the opener of this series last night as three early home runs ultimately resulted in a high-scoring affair (we did win with the Yankees in comeback fashion). I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Friday, however, as we have a terrific pitching matchup between Justin Verlander of the Astros and Luis Severino of the Yankees. Verlander has come back strong this season, posting a 3.40 FIP and 0.89 WHIP while allowing just north of 3.0 runs per nine innings. I like the bounce-back spot for him here after he struggled over 3 2/3 innings in a 7-0 loss to the White Sox last time out. Note that Verlander owns a 2.15 ERA and 0.78 WHIP in seven road outings this season. It's a similar story for Severino. He has recorded a 3.72 FIP and 1.06 WHIP this season, giving up only 3.4 runs per nine innings. Like Verlander, he looks to bounce back from a shaky outing as he gave up five earned runs over five innings against the Blue Jays in his most recent start. Behind the two starters are two strong bullpens that, despite the Astros coughing up a late three-run lead last night, have performed well lately. Houston's 'pen still owns a 2.52 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over the last seven games. The Yanks relief corps' has posted a 3.43 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
06-23-22 | Phillies v. Padres -140 | 6-2 | Loss | -140 | 14 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego over Philadelphia at 9:40 pm et on Thursday. While we did back Ranger Suarez in his most recent start - a victory over the Washington Nationals last week - I won’t hesitate to switch gears and fade the right-hander as he takes the mound against the Padres on Thursday. Suarez hasn’t been able to regain the form that saw him excel in the Philadelphia rotation last year. He checks in sporting a 4.25 FIP and 1.51 WHIP with opponents averaging just a tick below 5.0 runs per nine innings against him. In stark contrast, Padres starter Joe Musgrove has firmly planted himself in the early N.L. Cy Young Award conversation, posting a 2.66 FIP and 0.92 WHIP. Opponents are averaging barely north of 2.0 runs per nine innings against him. Of course, the later innings should belong to the Padres pitching staff in this one as well as their bullpen has been excellent this season, particularly at home where they’ve posted a collective 3.04 ERA and 0.88 WHIP with seven saves converted and only three blown (entering yesterday’s action). The Phillies ‘pen remains a work-in-progress, recording a 4.65 ERA and 1.62 WHIP on the road this season. Take San Diego (8*). | |||||||
06-23-22 | Orioles v. White Sox UNDER 9 | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Baltimore and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. This is a better starting pitching matchup than perhaps it first appears on paper. Dean Kremer will make his third start of the season for Baltimore. He struggled during his time in the bigs last year but has shown improvement here in 2022, posting a 3.45 FIP and 1.17 WHIP in limited work (15 1/3 innings). Quietly, the O’s have had one of the better bullpens in baseball this season, having recorded a collective 3.19 ERA and 1.22 WHIP (entering last night’s action). Veteran Johnny Cueto will counter for the White Sox. I hesitate to say that he’s ‘turned back the clock’ as he’s actually been getting it done for years’. Cueto owns a 3.64 FIP and 1.10 WHIP in 42 2/3 innings pitched this season. Opponents have managed to plate less than 3.2 runs per nine innings off of him. The White Sox bullpen hasn’t been all that reliable this season but has shown signs of turning it around lately, entering yesterday’s contest sporting a collective 3.49 ERA and 1.09 WHIP over their previous seven games. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
06-23-22 | Astros v. Yankees UNDER 8.5 | 6-7 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and New York at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. When most think of this matchup they think about the explosive offenses. I’m anticipating a contest dominated by pitching in Thursday’s series-opener, however. Astros starter Framber Valdez is often overshadowed by Justin Verlander at the front of the rotation but Valdez has been every bit as good this season, posting a 3.31 FIP and 1.15 WHIP, allowing just a shade north of 3.1 runs per nine innings. He catches the Yankees returning home on no rest following consecutive road series’ against the division rival Blue Jays and Rays. Jameson Taillon continues to impress for the Yankees. He checks in with a 3.00 FIP and 1.05 WHIP this season. While he has allowed over eight hits per nine innings, he’s managed to keep opposing lineups in check by yielding just 1.1 walk and 0.7 home runs per nine innings. Both bullpens have been terrific this season and certainly of late with the Yanks ‘pen having posted a 1.11 WHIP over the last seven games (entering last night’s action) and the Astros relief corps’ having recorded a 1.07 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the under (9*). | |||||||
06-23-22 | Astros v. Yankees -121 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
A.L. Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on New York over Houston at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Yankees in thrilling come-from-behind fashion last night and I won't hesitate to go right back to the well with them as they return home to host the Houston Astros on Thursday. We have a fine starting pitching matchup between left-hander Framber Valdez of the Astros and righty Jameson Taillon of the Yankees in this series-opener. There's not a lot to separate the two starters this season but here we'll find reason to give the edge to Taillon. Note that he has posted a terrific 3.01 FIP and 1.06 WHIP this season. While Valdez has had some issues with command at times, issuing north of 3.0 walks per nine innings, Taillon has been in complete control, allowing just 1.1 walk per nine innings. Opponents are averaging just 2.7 runs per nine innings off of Taillon this season. Of course, the Yankees have been dominant at home (and just about everywhere else) this season, going 29-7 while averaging 5.0 runs per game in the Bronx. Their +145 run differential is more than 2X greater than all but the Dodgers (they're +124). While the Astros hold down the A.L. West Division lead by a comfortable margin, they've only outscored the opposition by 61 runs on the campaign. Take New York (10*). | |||||||
06-23-22 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Reds | 10-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Cincinnati at 12:35 pm et on Thursday. The Dodgers haven’t been doing Clayton Kershaw any favors since he returned from the I.L., producing only three runs in his last two starts, both resulting in losses. Kershaw does continue to pitch well, having posted a 2.61 FIP and 0.85 WHIP this season. He’ll face a Reds team that had won just seven of 19 games against left-handed starters this season entering last night’s game against fellow lefty Tyler Anderson. Reds starter Hunter Greene is averaging just 5.0 innings per start this season which doesn’t bode well as the Cincinnati bullpen behind him has struggled, recording a collective 5.69 ERA and 1.53 WHIP with just four saves converted and four blown at home this season (entering last night’s action). Greene himself has had a tough time as well, posting a 5.29 FIP and 1.29 WHIP. He’s allowed 1.7 more home runs and 2.5 more walks per nine innings compared to Kershaw this season. Opponents are averaging 5.4 runs per nine innings against the rookie. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (9*). | |||||||
06-23-22 | Giants v. Braves -158 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta over San Francisco at 12:20 pm et on Thursday. I’ll back the Braves in Thursday’s series finale against the Giants. As is often the case, we’re able to get behind Atlanta starter Kyle Wright at a very reasonable price. He’s pitched well this season, recording a 2.70 FIP and 1.10 WHIP with opponents reaching him for less than 3.2 runs per nine innings. His counterpart on Thursday will be Alex Wood, who broke into the bigs with the Braves. Wood has been up-and-down, posting a 3.28 FIP and 1.31 WHIP. Opponents are averaging just shy of 4.5 runs per nine innings off of him. His 5.25 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in five previous daytime starts is concerning, as is the fact that he’ll be facing a Braves club that entered last night’s game against southpaw Carlos Rodon having gone 16-7 while averaging 6.0 runs per game against left-handed starters this season. Take Atlanta (9*). | |||||||
06-22-22 | Royals v. Angels -1.5 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Kansas City at 9:45 pm et on Wednesday. The Royals have taken the first two games of this series but I look for the Angels to finally answer back with Shohei Ohtani on the mound on Wednesday. Ohtani barely broke a sweat in his most recent outing, allowing just three hits over six innings of shutout ball in Seattle. The Angels have now won each of Ohtani's last two starts and all five of their victories with him on the hill this season have come by at least three runs. Shohei enters Wednesday's start sporting a terrific 3.09 FIP and 1.09 WHIP. His counterpart on Wednesday will be left hander Daniel Lynch. He was terrific in his most recent start but that came against the light-hitting A's in Oakland. Note that he will be pitching on just four days' rest here after notching a season-high 10 strikeouts in that five-inning effort in Oakland. Lynch checks in with a 4.50 FIP and 1.53 WHIP this season. Despite shining in his most recent start, Lynch has allowed north of 5.3 runs per nine innings this season. While last night's game was a wild, high-scoring affair, the Angels bullpen continues to hold up better than expected - at least recently - posting a collective 3.37 ERA and 0.94 WHIP over their last seven contests. The Royals 'pen has been terrific lately as well, but is nothing to write home about on the road, where it has recorded a 4.22 ERA and 1.40 WHIP this season. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (6*). | |||||||
06-22-22 | Avalanche +100 v. Lightning | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 36 h 14 m | Show |
NHL Game of the Year. My selection is on Colorado over Tampa Bay at 8:15 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the Lightning in Game 3 of this series on Monday as Tampa Bay showed up with its best effort of the series to avoid an 0-3 hole. Now I look for the Avs to answer back and push the Bolts to the brink of elimination before the series shifts back to Colorado for Game 5. It certainly wasn't surprising to see Tampa Bay push back and deliver a lopsided victory on Monday. After all, we are talking about the two-time defending Stanley Cup champions. The Lightning weren't simply going to roll over, certainly not on home ice. Things could have gone differently, however, were it not for an early disallowed Avalanche goal due to an offside call by way of review. Here, we'll note that Colorado checks in 34-12 when seeking revenge for a loss by 2+ goals against an opponent over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by 1.4 goals on average in that situation. While the Lightning may be known for their offensive prowess, this series certainly hasn't been played at their preferred pace. Note that they're a woeful 11-19 after three consecutive games totalling 7+ goals over the last three seasons, as is the case here, allowing 3.4 goals and outscored by 0.2 goals on average in that spot. Colorado has yet to lose consecutive games in these playoffs. It did drop six of seven games at the tail-end of the regular season but that was after it had wrapped up the President's Trophy and was more focused on managing the playing time of its stars. You would have to go all the way back to March 8th and 10th to find the last time the Avs lost consecutive 'meaningful' games and in that situation they were playing a third road game in four nights against a tough opponent in Carolina. You would have to go back eight meetings in this series to find the last time the Lightning managed to defeat the Avalanche in consecutive matchups, with that last taking place in October and December 2018. Take Colorado (10*). | |||||||
06-22-22 | Guardians v. Twins -145 | 11-10 | Loss | -145 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota over Cleveland at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. We missed with the Twins last night as they rallied late but they coughed up a two-run lead before falling in 11 innings. I won't hesitate to go right back to the well with them on Wednesday, however. We have a fine starting pitching matchup in this one as the Guardians send Triston McKenzie to the hill against Sonny Gray of the Twins. McKenzie has generally pitched well this season but continues to have a tough time keeping the ball in the park, allowing 1.4 home runs per nine innings including 10 over his last six outings. The Twins have hit 48 home runs in 35 games at home this season compared to just 30 in 34 road contests. Note also that McKenzie has posted a 1-3 team record in four career starts against Minnesota. Twins starter Sonny Gray has 'turned back the clock' this season, posting a terrific 2.74 FIP and 0.93 WHIP in 38 2/3 innings of work. Opponents are averaging just under 2.1 runs per nine innings against the veteran right hander. You would have to go back five starts to find the last time Cleveland defeated Gray. The Guardians may have a slight edge in terms of the two bullpens although it's been virtually a wash as far as the numbers go over the last seven games with Cleveland's 'pen posting a 1.12 WHIP and Minnesota countering with a 1.08 WHIP. Take Minnesota (8*). | |||||||
06-22-22 | Guardians v. Twins UNDER 8.5 | Top | 11-10 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
A.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Minnesota at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. These two teams were involved in a relatively high-scoring extra innings affair last night as the two bullpens took turns coughing up leads late. Generally speaking, both relief corps' have been solid this season, however, and I look for a lower-scoring contest on Wednesday. Triston McKenzie gets the call for the visiting Guardians. He checks in with a 4.37 FIP, largely due to his struggles with keeping the ball in the park. Outside of his 1.4 home runs allowed per nine innings, his numbers are terrific, most notably a 0.93 WHIP and just 2.96 runs allowed per nine innings. Sonny Gray will counter for the Twins. He's having an even better season than McKenzie, albeit with a smaller sample size (he's missed some time due to injury). Gray checks in with a terrific 2.74 FIP and 0.93 WHIP. Opponents have averaged just 2.09 runs per nine innings off of him this season. As I mentioned, last night's contest notwithstanding, the two bullpens have been solid this season. Cleveland's 'pen has posted a 2.02 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over its last seven games while Minnesota's relief corps' sports a 3.12 ERA and 1.08 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
06-22-22 | Yankees -134 v. Rays | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Tampa Bay at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Rays evened this series at a game apiece with a narrow victory last night. I look for the Yankees to answer back on Wednesday. Jordan Montgomery is sometimes the forgotten arm in the Yankees outstanding starting rotation. He's coming off another fine outing against a tough Blue Jays lineup in Toronto and checks in sporting a 3.54 FIP and 0.95 WHIP in 72 2/3 innings of work this season. Opponents are averaging a paltry 2.7 runs per nine innings off the left-hander. Tampa Bay will give Shane Baz another turn in the rotation on Wednesday. The Yankees did see him once last season, chasing him after only 2 2/3 innings. Baz has worked only 8 1/3 innings this season so you can take his 3.97 FIP and 0.96 WHIP with a grain of salt as far as I'm concerned. Note that his walks have already crept up, averaging 3.2 per nine innings while opponents have averaged 5.4 runs per nine innings off of him. The bullpens have virtually been a wash lately but I believe the Yankees starting pitching and hitting edges should be enough here. Take New York (8*). | |||||||
06-22-22 | Nationals v. Orioles -140 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Baltimore over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Nationals shut out the Orioles in the opener of this series last night but I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday as Baltimore holds a substantial starting pitching edge. You have to wonder how many more opportunities we'll get to fade Nationals starter Patrick Corbin. He checks in sporting a 4.83 FIP and 1.78 WHIP this season, allowing just shy of 7.9 runs per nine innings. The Orioles aren't exactly tearing the cover off the baseball right now but they do average 4.4 runs per game against left-handed starters this season, going 13-13 compared to 17-26 against right-handers. Tyler Wells will counter for Baltimore. He has posted a 4.31 FIP and 1.07 WHIP, allowing 4.7 fewer hits and 1.7 fewer walks per nine innings compared to Corbin. The O's should have the edge in the later innings as well as their bullpen has been terrific lately, recording a collective 1.63 ERA and 0.94 WHIP over their last seven games. The Washington 'pen sports a 6.10 ERA and 1.53 WHIP on the road this season. Take Baltimore (10*). | |||||||
06-22-22 | Phillies -130 v. Rangers | 2-4 | Loss | -130 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia first five innings over Texas at 4:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Rangers crushed the Phillies by a 7-0 score last night, handing Philadelphia its second straight loss. I look for the Phillies to bounce back on Wednesday afternoon, at least early on. Philadelphia has a substantial edge in terms of the starting pitching matchup with Zack Wheeler taking the ball against Jon Gray of the Rangers. Wheeler has been his usual dominant self this season, posting a 2.31 FIP and 1.04 WHIP. Opponents are reaching him for just north of 2.9 runs per nine innings. While Jon Gray comes off consecutive solid outings, that's about as much as we can expect from the veteran right-hander. Note that he has recorded a 3.36 FIP and 1.20 WHIP, allowing just shy of 4.3 runs per nine innings. Gray checks in allowing 1.5 additional walks per nine innings compared to Wheeler. By playing the first five innings only we'll avoid tempting fate with a Phillies bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a 4.39 ERA and 1.60 WHIP with six blown saves (compared to eight converted) on the road this season. Take Philadelphia first five innings (10*). | |||||||
06-22-22 | Blue Jays -108 v. White Sox | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto over Chicago at 2:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Blue Jays have dropped the first two games in this series and while Ross Stripling might not appear to be the right starter to turn things around on Wednesday, I actually like the matchup here. Stripling has held up well as a back-of-the-rotation option this season, recording a 2.98 FIP and 1.07 WHIP while allowing just under 3.5 runs per nine innings. He ran into trouble in his most recent outing but that came against the hot-hitting Yankees. Here, he'll have the benefit of starting against the White Sox for the first time in his career. Lucas Giolito will get the start for Chicago. His FIP has climbed all the way to 4.86 while his WHIP sits at 1.49. Giolito probably carries a more favorable reputation than Stripling but the numbers don't bear out such a stance this season, noting that he's allowed 1.9 more hits, 1.4 more home runs and 2.0 more walks per nine innings compared to Stripling this season. Behind Stripling is a Blue Jays bullpen that coughed up a ninth-inning lead last night and has generally struggled lately. However, it's worth noting that the White Sox 'pen hasn't exactly been lights out at home this season, posting a collective 5.51 ERA and 1.61 WHIP with nine saves converted and eight blown. Take Toronto (8*). | |||||||
06-21-22 | Mariners -137 v. A's | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 16 h 33 m | Show |
MLB Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Seattle over Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Mariners may be struggling but a trip to Oakland to face the lowly A’s should help them bust out of their slump. Marco Gonzales will take the ball for Seattle on Tuesday. His numbers aren’t great this season by any means but they’re without question superior to those of Tuesday's opposing starter, James Kaprielian. Gonzales has recorded a 5.42 FIP and 1.31 WHIP while Kaprielian checks in with a 6.49 FIP and 1.50 WHIP. The Mariners left-hander should be happy to see the A's, noting that he owns a career 1.17 WHIP in 15 starts against them with Seattle winning 10 of those games. Kaprielian had a nice rookie campaign last season but hasn't been able to get on track in 2022, particularly at home where he owns a 7.42 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in four starts, spanning only 17 innings of work. While the team has had a tough time, Seattle’s bullpen has held up well recently, entering this series with a 1.00 WHIP over its last seven games. The Mariners bats have been quiet but their 3.8 per game scoring average away from home this season is still far better than Oakland’s 2.4 runs per contest at home. Noting that Seattle is 9-3 in its last 12 games played here in Oakland, I look for it to take advantage of this opportunity to right the ship, even just for one night, on Tuesday. Take Seattle (10*). | |||||||
06-21-22 | Blue Jays v. White Sox UNDER 9 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
A.L. Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. While he’s been up-and-down lately, Jays starter Kevin Gausman owns an excellent track record this season, posting an incredible 1.75 FIP through his first 13 starts. He allows too many hits (10.0 per nine innings) but makes up for it by limiting his walks (1.4 per nine innings) and putting up nice strikeout totals (just shy of 10.0 per nine innings). His counterpart on Tuesday will be Dylan Cease. He’s had the opposite problem, issuing more than four walks but limiting opponents to only 7.7 hits per nine innings. He has posted a solid 2.78 FIP this season. Cease enters this outing in terrific form, having not allowed an earned run over his last four starts, covering a span of 21 1/3 innings of work. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
06-21-22 | Cardinals -125 v. Brewers | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
My selection is on St. Louis first five innings over Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the Cardinals in the first five innings only in this game as the Brewers do hold advantages in the later innings in this one with a bullpen that has posted a collective 0.00 ERA and 0.76 WHIP over their last seven contests. In the early innings, I expect it to be all Cards as they give Jack Flaherty his second start since returning from the I.L. on Tuesday. Flaherty wasn't particularly effective in his first outing against the Pirates last week but did get loose with a three-inning outing, allowing three hits, two walks, two earned runs while striking out three. I expect him to work a little deeper into this contest and I'm confident he can handle the Brewers lineup, noting that he faced them twice last season, allowing just two earned runs in 12 innings. Milwaukee will trot out waiver-wire pick-up Chi Chi Gonzalez. He'll be pitching for his third club since last season after getting cut loose by the Rockies and Twins. Neither of those teams have particularly strong pitching staffs to begin with so the fact that he was unable to stick should raise red flags. He's only in Milwaukee out of necessity as the Brewers have Freddy Peralta on the I.L. Gonzalez owns a career 5.37 FIP and 1.50 WHIP. In two starts with the Twins this season he was tagged for 12 hits and six earned runs over seven innings of work. The Cards bats were quiet against Corbin Burnes last night but I look for them to come alive early in this one. Take St. Louis first five innings (10*). | |||||||
06-21-22 | Phillies v. Rangers UNDER 8.5 | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Texas at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. This game features a pair of ‘bet-on’ veteran starting pitchers - at least this season - in Kyle Gibson and Martin Perez and I’m anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair. First, let’s talk about the bullpens. The Phillies got a much-needed day off on Monday - their first since June 6th. Their ‘pen has admittedly struggled but that day off should serve them well entering this series against the Rangers. Texas’ relief corps’ has been fairly reliable, recording a collective 1.09 WHIP over its last seven games and a 3.88 ERA and 1.20 WHIP at home this season. Back to the starters, Gibson owns a 3.59 FIP and 1.22 WHIP this season, allowing just north of four runs per nine innings. He’s coming off a quality outing against Miami in which he gave up just one earned run over eight innings. Martin Perez is having a career year, recording a 2.10 ERA and 1.11 WHIP through his first 13 starts this season. That’s not to mention a 2.62 FIP, yielding less than 2.7 runs per nine innings. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
06-21-22 | Guardians v. Twins -160 | 6-5 | Loss | -160 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota over Cleveland at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. Aaron Civale is expected to make his return from a thigh injury as the Guardians open a series in Minnesota on Tuesday. Civale wasn’t pitching particularly well prior to going down to injury, recording a 4.97 FIP and 1.52 WHIP in seven starts. Opponents have run up the score against him, averaging a ridiculous 9.0 runs per nine innings. Twins starter Joe Ryan knows a thing or two about returning from injury as he did so in his last start against the Mariners last week. Ryan checks in with a respectable 3.73 FIP and 1.02 WHIP, allowing a whopping 4.6 hits fewer per nine innings compared to Civale this season. We’re not talking about all that different of a sample size as Ryan has made just two more starts than Civale. Also worth noting, opponents are averaging fewer than 3.0 runs per nine innings off of Ryan this season. The Guardians are playing well for sure, but I’m willing to bet the Twins cool them off at Target Field on Tuesday. Take Minnesota (8*). | |||||||
06-21-22 | Cubs v. Pirates -150 | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh over Chicago at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. We’ll fade Matt Swarmer again here, just as we did in his last outing, as he makes is fifth start of the season. The rookie right-hander has posted an ugly 8.74 FIP through his first 20+ innings of work this season, allowing north of four home runs and 6.5 runs per nine innings. It’s been a much different story for Pirates starter Roansy Contreras as he’s been making the most of his opportunities, recording a 3.87 FIP while allowing only 3.9 runs per nine innings through eight appearances including five starts. While far from dominant, the right-hander has done a nice job of keeping his team in the game in all five of his starts this season. The Buccos should also have the advantage in the later innings in this one as Chicago’s bullpen entered this series sporting a collective 9.64 ERA and 1.93 WHIP over its last seven games, covering a span of 28 innings. The Cubs are a losing team on the road this season and I expect them to fall short again here. Take Pittsburgh (8*). | |||||||
06-20-22 | Royals v. Angels -180 | 6-2 | Loss | -180 | 15 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Kansas City at 9:35 pm et on Monday. The Angels have quietly gotten back on track following a miserable stretch, winning four of their last five games entering Monday's series opener against the Royals. They'll have a considerable edge in terms of the starting pitchers in this one as they send Noah Syndergaard to the mound against Kris Bubic of the Royals. Syndergaard has turned in a couple of shaky outings but for the most part, has delivered for his new club, posting a 3.72 FIP and 1.18 WHIP. He's been at his best here at home, where he checks in sporting a 1.48 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in five starts spanning 30 1/3 innings. His counterpart on Monday hasn't been nearly as effective. Bubic owns an ugly 5.66 FIP and 1.89 WHIP. Opponents are lighting him up to the tune of 8.4 runs per nine innings. While the Angels bats have been relatively quiet aside from Mike Trout, I look for a breakout performance against the Royals pitching staff here. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
06-20-22 | Avalanche v. Lightning -106 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Colorado at 8:15 pm et on Monday. Some will point to Saturday's 7-0 drubbing in Game 2 of this series as a reason for why it's difficult to back the Lightning here in Game 3 on Monday. I actually feel the lopsided nature of that game - which was never competitive - will serve the two-time defending Stanley Cup champions well in this spot as they were completely embarrassed 48 hours ago. Here, we'll note that the Lightning check in a perfect 9-0 when playing at home after losing two of their last three games this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 2.2 goals on average in that spot. They're also an incredible 18-2 when playing at home seeking revenge for a loss in which their opponent scored 4+ goals over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 2.1 goals in that situation. As I've noted time and time again in these playoffs, long winning streaks just aren't commonplace in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, yet here we find the Avs off seven consecutive victories. Look for that streak to finally come to an end on Monday. Take Tampa Bay (10*). | |||||||
06-20-22 | Cardinals v. Brewers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
N.L. Central Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The Cardinals enter Monday's series-opener in Milwaukee on the heels of five consecutive 'over' results. I expect a different story to unfold here, however, as we have a terrific starting pitching matchup featuring Miles Mikolas - who fell just short of delivering a no-hitter in his last start - and Corbin Burnes, fresh off a masterful performance against a tough Mets lineup last time out. Mikolas owns a 3.36 FIP and 0.97 WHIP this season and will be starting on a full five days' rest on Monday. Opponents are averaging just 2.8 runs per nine innings against him this season. While the Cards have lost three of their last four games, their bullpen hasn't been to blame. They entered yesterday's action sporting a 2.45 ERA and 0.77 WHIP over their last seven games. Corbin Burnes hasn't dominated the way he did last season but has still posted a terrific 3.08 FIP and 0.95 WHIP this season. I mentioned his last start against the Mets, it's worth noting that he didn't issue a walk for the first time in five starts in that outing. Burnes has been at his best against division opponents this season, recording a 2.42 ERA and 0.73 WHIP in four starts against the N.L. Central. Incredibly, the Brewers bullpen hasn't allowed a single earned run over its last eight games. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
06-20-22 | Giants v. Braves UNDER 8 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 22 m | Show |
N.L. Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Monday. This is the best starting pitching matchup on Monday's board as the Giants send Logan Webb to the hill against Max Fried of the Braves. Webb has posted a 3.08 FIP and 1.18 WHIP this season. Better still, he has recorded a 1.08 WHIP on the road this season. He's also coming off his best start of the campaign as he tossed seven shutout innings against the Royals last week. Fried has been even better, posting a 2.80 FIP and 1.05 WHIP this season. He wasn't at his best in his most recent start but now he gets to pitch on a full five days' rest again and I expect him to hold the Giants bats in check. Note that opponents are averaging just a shade over 3.0 runs per nine innings against Fried this season. Beyond Webb and Fried, both bullpens have excelled lately, posting sub-2.00 ERA's over the last week. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
06-20-22 | Tigers v. Red Sox -173 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston over Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Monday. While the Tigers are coming off consecutive wins, those came at the expense of one of the league's most disappointing teams in the Texas Rangers. Detroit still checks in just 2-6 over its last eight games and 9-18 on the road this season, where it averages just 2.3 runs per game. Boston has been arguably the best team in baseball since mid-May and is fresh off another series victory over the Cardinals. While the Red Sox wouldn't appear to have any sort of substantial edge in terms of tonight's starting pitching matchup, I'm comfortable supporting rookie Josh Winckowski in his third start of the season. I like the fact that his two previous starts have also come at Fenway Park. He certainly looked comfortable pitching here last time out as he tossed five shutout innings against the A's and will face a similar challenge against the light-hitting Tigers here. Alex Faedo counters for Detroit. He owns a 4.40 FIP and 1.40 WHIP this season. This will be arguably his toughest test to date and he'll be starting on just four days' rest after getting lit up to the tune of seven earned runs on nine hits over three innings against the White Sox last time out. While the Tigers bullpen was one of their only redeeming qualities earlier in the season, it has struggled lately, posting a 6.90 ERA and 1.90 WHIP over the last seven games entering yesterday's contest. Take Boston (8*). | |||||||
06-20-22 | Marlins v. Mets -151 | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 4 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Miami at 1:10 pm et on Monday. The Mets ran into the Marlins best starting pitcher yesterday in Sandy Alcantara and fell by a 6-2 score. I look for them to answer back in Monday's series-finale. While New York doesn't have a considerable starting pitcher advantage in this matchup, I do rate David Peterson slightly better than Trevor Rogers this season. Peterson checks in with a 1.33 WHIP compared to Rogers' 1.64. It's also worth noting that Peterson has allowed 2.7 fewer hits and 0.8 fewer home runs per nine innings this season. Neither starter has proven capable of working deep into ball games which could lead to a battle of the bullpens here. In that department, I do give New York the advantage as its 'pen has posted a 3.67 ERA and 1.22 WHIP here at home this season. By contrast, the Marlins relief corps has posted a 5.09 ERA and 1.35 WHIP with eight blown saves compared to nine converted on the road this season. Take New York (8*). | |||||||
06-18-22 | Lightning +1.5 v. Avalanche | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -200 | 54 h 44 m | Show |
NHL Game of the Week. My selection is on Tampa Bay +1.5 goals over Colorado at 8 pm et on Saturday. As I've noted time and time again in these playoffs, long winning streaks just aren't commonplace in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Here, we find the Avalanche coming off six consecutive victories, a streak that I believe is getting a little long in the tooth. The Lightning couldn't have got off to much worse of a start in Game 1 yet still ended up pushing the Avs to overtime before falling by a 4-3 score. Here, we'll note that Tampa Bay checks in 26-7 when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.4 goals on average. Better still, the Bolts are 30-9 when seeking revenge for a loss where their opponent scored 4+ goals over the same stretch, outscoring the opposition by 1.5 goals on average in that spot. Additionally, Tampa Bay is 33-15 when trailing a playoff series, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.6 goals. While Colorado has now taken consecutive meetings against the Lightning on home ice, Tampa Bay is no stranger to winning in Denver, having reeled off five consecutive road wins in this series previously. Take Tampa Bay +1.5 goals (10*). | |||||||
06-18-22 | Charlotte FC v. Columbus OVER 2.5 | 1-1 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Columbus and Charlotte at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. Charlotte has managed to find the back of the net in four straight and seven of its last eight matches across all competitions. Here, it finds itself in an underdog role away against Columbus, rightfully so given it has had a miserable time preventing goals away from home, giving up 13 in just seven road contests this season. Columbus hasn't exactly been explosive offensively, managing nine goals in six home matches, however it should have little trouble breaking through here, noting that you would have to go back five matches to find the last time Charlotte posted a clean sheet. With the Crew sitting in the bottom half of the MLS Eastern Conference standings it can make a serious move here as it sits just three points back of Charlotte - which finds itself in seventh place in the conference, three spots north of Columbus. Expect goals on Saturday night. Take the over (8*). |
Service | Profit |
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Ricky Tran | $756 |
ProSportsPicks | $632 |
Joseph D'Amico | $510 |
Joey Tron | $450 |
Tom Macrina | $399 |
Nick Parsons | $344 |
Sean Murphy | $306 |
Jack Jones | $303 |
William Burns | $233 |
Dan Kaiser | $220 |