Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-23-20 | Dodgers v. Rays UNDER 7.5 | 6-2 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Tampa Bay at 8:08 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'over' in Game 2 of this series but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' as we see a true pitcher's duel in the making on Friday. Charlie Morton will take the ball for the Rays against Walker Buehler of the Dodgers. Morton is a proven postseason performer and has certainly lived up to his billing here in these playoffs, allowing just one earned run in 15 2/3 innings of work. Meanwhile, Buehler has been rock solid as well, giving up only two earned runs in 15 innings since the start of the NLDS. Both bullpens are fresh after a night off and I see this as a first team to three wins type of contest. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-23-20 | Tulsa v. South Florida OVER 49.5 | Top | 42-13 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
AAC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Tulsa and South Florida at 7:30 pm et on Friday. This total has dropped into playable range since opening. We just haven't seen enough from Tulsa to get a true gauge of where the Golden Hurricane are at. After opening the season with a much lower-scoring than expected 16-7 loss at Oklahoma State they went on to stage a stunning upset of Central Florida in Orlando, scoring an impressive 34 points in the process. Here, I'm confident the Tulsa offense can ramp up again but I'm not sure the Golden Hurricane defense will hold up as well as it has to this point. It would be easy to suffer a bit of a letdown emotionally against a 1-4 South Florida squad. The Bulls are still trying to get their offense sorted but this is a fine breakout spot at home coming off an extra week of practice. While I'm not anticipating a shootout here, I do believe this one will ultimately climb over the very reasonable posted total. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-22-20 | Giants v. Eagles -4 | Top | 21-22 | Loss | -116 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
TNF Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over New York at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. I like the way this one sets up for the Eagles for a number of reasons. First, we saw some signs of life from Philadelphia last Sunday as it didn't fold the tent after falling behind against an elite Ravens squad. In fact, the Eagles were a two-point conversion away from sending the game to overtime. Meanwhile, the Giants are fresh off their first win of the season, coming at the expense of the equally lowly Washington Football Team. Here, New York faces a much tougher challenge against a still-fierce Eagles pass rush that ranks top three in the NFL in quarterback hits. Expect Giants QB Daniel Jones to be under duress all night long. Meanwhile, the Giants defense has been lifeless and essentially sets Eagles QB Carson Wentz up for a breakout performance here, even with TE Zach Ertz sidelined. Ertz hasn't been effective anyway so his absence won't be missed all that much. Despite facing a stable of lower-tier quarterbacks, the G-Men defense have done little to slow opposing offenses. Look for the Eagles to take out their frustrations on Joe Judge's squad here. Take Philadelphia (10*). | |||||||
10-22-20 | Arkansas State v. Appalachian State UNDER 68 | 17-45 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arkansas State and Appalachian State at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. We missed the mark (badly) with the 'under' in Arkansas State's victory over Georgia State last week. I won't hesitate to go back to the well here, however as the Red Wolves head on the road to face Appalachian State. The Mountaineers are well-rested if nothing else, having not played a game since September due to COVID concerns. Prior to the shutdown Appalachian State had gone 2-1 but was largely inconsistent offensively, only truly breaking out against FCS opponent Campbell. Here, I certainly wouldn't be surprised if the Mountaineers showed a bit of rust offensively. Meanwhile, we can't count on another offensive explosion from the Arkansas State offense - not against a much tougher Appalachian State defense. The last time these two programs met two years ago they combined to score 44 points. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-21-20 | Rays v. Dodgers OVER 8 | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
World Series Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Los Angeles at 8:08 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a high-scoring affair to open this series last night with the Dodgers offense staying hot in an 8-3 rout. I'm anticipating another relatively high-scoring contest in Game 2 in what should set up as a 'bullpen game' for both clubs. The Rays are hoping that lefty Blake Snell can keep the Dodgers bats at bay but the fact is he's struggled for much of the postseason and isn't likely to work deep into this ball game (Rays manager Kevin Cash elected to leave Tyler Glasnow in the game for 112 pitches last night to conserve his bullpen for this one). While the Rays 'pen has been terrific overall this season, it struggled in Games 4 through 7 of the ALCS. The Dodgers will hand the ball to Tony Gonsolin, but he's only likely to work a few innings. Even if the Rays can't get to him, I do believe they'll be able to do some damage against a Dodgers 'pen that has struggled apart from Julio Urias. After getting through a shaky first inning, Clayton Kershaw was able to keep the Rays bats off balance over the next five frames last night. I look for a different story to unfold tonight. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-21-20 | Atletico Madrid v. Bayern Munich UNDER 2.75 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
Champions League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' 2.75 goals between Atletico Madrid and Bayern Munich at 3 pm et on Wednesday. There's plenty of offensive firepower on display in this match between two giants on Wednesday but I'm not convinced this early group stage match will turn into a high-scoring affair. Similarly to yesterday's match between Sevilla and Chelsea, I suspect we'll see a bit of a feeling out process in this one, noting that these two squads are unquestionably the best in Group A (Salzburg and Lokomotiv Moscow round out the grouping). As much as Bayern in particular would like to make a statement here in the opener, Atletico Madrid is solid in the back and more than capable of holding form. The simple fact that Munich has scored a whopping 20 goals in five Bundesliga matches to date this season leads to this total being set a little higher than it should be in my opinion. Take the under 2.75 goals (10*). | |||||||
10-20-20 | Rays v. Dodgers -169 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Tampa Bay at 8:09 pm et on Tuesday. There are those that feel Clayton Kershaw is no longer the Dodgers ace with Walker Buehler taking over that bill here in 2020. I think we see a strong performance from Kershaw in the opener of the World Series on Tuesday night, however. I also expect the Dodgers bats to come up big against Rays starter Tyler Glasnow. We saw Glasnow's walks per nine innings rise considerably compared to a year ago during the regular season and that trend has continued here in the postseason as he has issued eight walks while also allowing six home runs in 19 1/3 innings of work. I'm confident the Dodgers can make Glasnow pay for his command issues. While I do expect this to be a long series, I feel Los Angeles could be priced even higher than it is here in Game 1. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
10-20-20 | Sevilla +0.5 v. Chelsea | Top | 0-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
Champions League Match of the Month. My selection is on Sevilla +0.5 goals over Chelsea at 3 pm et on Tuesday. I'll take a strong position with Sevilla catching a half-goal against Chelsea in Champions League action on Tuesday. While the Spanish side is coming off a tough 1-0 loss to Granada in La Liga action and has gone winless in consecutive matches, I expect it will be up to the challenge against an opponent that draws plenty of motivation here. Chelsea is coming off a disappointing result of its own on Saturday - settling for a 3-3 draw against Southampton. I feel that Chelsea's aggressive style may open it up for some fruitful counter-attacks from Sevilla here and feel we're getting a bargain price to grab the insurance half-goal. Take Sevilla +0.5 goals (10*). | |||||||
10-19-20 | Cardinals v. Cowboys OVER 55 | Top | 38-10 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 2 m | Show |
NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Dallas at 8:15 pm et on Monday. This sets up as a smash spot for both offenses, even with the Cowboys having lost QB Dak Prescott for the season. The Cardinals are coming off a nice 'get right' matchup against the Jets and should be able to keep it rolling against a pitiful Cowboys defense here. Note that Dallas simply isn't getting after opposing quarterbacks which should help set up a clean pocket for capable Cardinals QB Kyler Murray on Monday night. Given that clean pocket there's little reason to expect anything other than a monster performance from Murray and his favorite target WR DeAndre Hopkins. Meanwhile, the Cowboys aren't stopping anyone from running the football which bodes well for the Cards backfield tandem of Kenyan Drake and Chase Edmonds. While most are quick to write off the Cowboys offense, I believe they can keep playing fast and putting plenty of points on the board with veteran Andy Dalton under center. It's not as if the rest of the offensive cupboard is bare - the Cowboys are positively loaded all over the field, and particularly at wide receiver. Note that the Cards lost arguably their best defender in Chandler Jones to injury last week. Without Jones, I look for Dalton to navigate the very beatable Cards defense and help this one 'over' the posted total. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-19-20 | Chiefs -5.5 v. Bills | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 6 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Buffalo at 5 pm et on Monday. The reasoning behind this play is fairly simple. I don't believe the Bills defense, which was severely overrated early in the season, can keep the Chiefs at bay for four quarters on Monday night, nor do I believe Josh Allen and the Bills offense will be able to avoid the mistakes that will ultimately result in a lopsided Chiefs victory. Kansas City suffered a clear letdown last Sunday as it wasn't sharp in any facet of the game in a loss to the Raiders. That one stung. Now the Chiefs have had extra time to stew on that loss and I look for them to come up big on Monday in Buffalo. Take Kansas City (10*). | |||||||
10-18-20 | Texans v. Titans OVER 53 | Top | 36-42 | Win | 100 | 17 h 51 m | Show |
AFC South Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Tennessee at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'm anticipating a high-scoring affair as the Texans and Titans do battle on Sunday afternoon in Nashville. This is a big-time smash spot for Texans QB Deshaun Watson who looked relaxed and sharp without the specter of head coach Bill O'Brien hanging over him last week. Things should really open up for the Texans offense against a Titans defense that has allowed just under 5.6 yards per rush this season. Likewise, Houston's defense has also allowed well north of five yards per rush this season so it would come as no surprise if Titans RB Derrick Henry kept rolling here this week. Keep in mind, Houston will be without run-stopper Benardrick McKinney after he suffered a shoulder injury last week. Houston has offered no resistance against opposing passing games this season so this is also a green-light spot for Titans QB Ryan Tannehill who continues to be severely undervalued by most. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-18-20 | Browns v. Steelers -3 | Top | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 17 h 40 m | Show |
NFL Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over Cleveland at 1 pm et on Sunday. While the Browns are rolling right now I can't help but feel they're ripe for a blowout at the hands of the Steelers on Sunday afternoon in Pittsburgh. The Steelers are capable of absolutely shutting down Cleveland's ground attack, having allowed just north of three yards per rush this season. Take away the Browns running game and you severely deplete their offense, especially with QB Baker Mayfield banged up. Meanwhile, the Steelers offense continues to round into form. The fact is, Pittsburgh has been one of the three most impressive squads in the NFL in the first month-plus of the season as far as I'm concerned. I look for the Pittsburgh offense to absolutely gash a suddenly overrated Browns defense here on Sunday afternoon at Heinz Field. Take Pittsburgh (10*). | |||||||
10-17-20 | North Carolina -13 v. Florida State | Top | 28-31 | Loss | -112 | 32 h 19 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Year. My selection is on North Carolina minus the points over Florida State at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. We won with North Carolina in its double-digit victory over Virginia Tech last Saturday and I'll back the Tar Heels again this week as they head out on the road to face 1-3 Florida State. The Tar Heels are one of the hottest teams in the nation in this unique 2020 college football season but it has gone largely unnoticed by most casual observers. The folks that matter have taken notice, however, giving North Carolina a lofty top-10 ranking. I look for the Tar Heels to live up to expectations for another week. Perhaps some bettors were put off by the Heels in their narrow four-point win as a two-touchdown favorite against Boston College two weeks ago - their only road game so far this season. UNC was clearly almost caught flat-footed in that contest but won't be caught off guard against a storied Florida State program here on Saturday. I don't believe the Seminoles have the personnel to keep up with the Tar Heels for four quarters. We saw UNC take Virginia Tech far away from its gameplan last Saturday and I expect a similar story to unfold here. Take North Carolina (10*). | |||||||
10-17-20 | Texas A&M -4.5 v. Mississippi State | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 29 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas A&M minus the points over Mississippi State at 4 pm et on Saturday. Mississippi State came up with a huge upset win on the road against LSU in its season-opener but has accomplished very little since, dropping back-to-back games against Arkansas and Kentucky. I don't expect the Bulldogs to pick themselves up off the mat in this clash with Texas A&M. The Aggies are fresh off a big win over Florida last Saturday. Their lone blemish is a loss at Alabama - albeit in blowout fashion - back on October 3rd. This is the start of a stretch of three straight truly winnable games for Texas A&M and I look for it to make the most of the opportunity. There's a bigger gap between these two SEC squads than the oddsmakers are accounting for. Take Texas A&M (10*). | |||||||
10-17-20 | Kentucky v. Tennessee -6 | 34-7 | Loss | -106 | 25 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tennessee minus the points over Kentucky at 12 noon et on Saturday. We won by fading Tennessee in an eventual lopsided loss at Georgia last week but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Vols this week as they return home to host Kentucky in SEC action. Kentucky is fresh off a 24-2 rout of upstart Mississippi State. Keep in mind, the Wildcats are still just 1-2 on the season, including a 29-13 loss at Auburn in their lone previous road game. The Vols meanwhile check in 2-1 with victories at South Carolina and at home against Missouri with the latter coming in blowout fashion. Off a poor showing against an elite Georgia defense last week I look for Vols QB Jarrett Guarantano to turn in a strong performance here. I don't see the Wildcats offense keeping pace for four quarters and believe we're dealing with a very reasonable pointspread here. Take Tennessee (10*). | |||||||
10-16-20 | BYU v. Houston +5 | Top | 43-26 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
CFB Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Houston plus the points over BYU at 9:30 pm et on Friday. BYU remains undefeated on the season but after laying two touchdowns or more in three consecutive layups against inferior opposition, it will face a tough test on the road against Houston on Friday. With Houston having played just once it's not easy to for the oddsmakers to set an accurate line for this one and I feel they've missed the mark. QB Clayton Tune wasn't at his best in last week's rout of Tulane, but still managed to throw a pair of touchdown passes and run for another while amassing over 300 yards through the air. BYU certainly looked flat in last week's narrow 27-20 win over Texas-San Antonio. The Cougars will be taking a considerable step up in class here and I look for them to fall short of the mark in terms of the pointspread. Take Houston (10*). | |||||||
10-15-20 | Georgia State v. Arkansas State UNDER 73 | 52-59 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Georgia State and Arkansas State at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'under' in last night's Sun Belt clash and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Georgia State is coming off a wild 49-29 shootout win last week but that came at the expense of East Carolina - a team that will be involved in plenty of shootouts this season. Likewise for Arkansas State as the Red Wolves are fresh off a 50-27 win over Central Arkansas - another team with a tendency to get involved in wild, high-scoring affairs. Add in the fact that last year's meeting between Georgia State and Arkansas State reached 90 total points and you can understand why I believe we're dealing with an inflated total here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-14-20 | Rays v. Astros OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -111 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
ALCS Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Houston at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday. This has been a low-scoring series to this point but I expect some offense on Wednesday night as the Rays send Tyler Glasnow to the hill against Zack Greinke. Glasnow has enjoyed a terrific 2020 season but lately we've seen him labor a bit, working at least six innings in just three of his last seven starts. The Astros will obviously be in desperation mode down 3-0 in the series and while that by no means guarantees success at the plate, I do expect them to put up a fight here. Speaking of laboring, Astros veteran starter Zack Greinke has struggled through two postseason starts against the Twins and A's and now faces an even better offense in the Rays. You would have to go back to September 8th to find the last time he worked six innings in a game. With the 'under' having cashed in three straight games to open this series I believe we're getting some value going the other way with the 'over' on Wednesday. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-14-20 | Coastal Carolina v. UL-Lafayette UNDER 59 | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Coastal Carolina and Louisiana-Lafayette at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday. I'll take a shot with the 'under' as the Chanticleers and Ragin' Cajuns do battle in Sun Belt action on Wednesday night. Coastal Carolina has put up a whopping 133 points in going a perfect 3-0 this season. However, this will be their toughest test to date (they did face a Big 12 opponent but that was a bottom of the barrel Kansas squad). Louisiana-Lafayette has given up just 63 points in going a perfect 3-0 to start the season. Keep in mind, the Chanticleers haven't played since October 3rd while the Ragin' Cajuns have been idle since way back on September 26th. In keeping with the tradition of playing midweek 'unders', I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair than the oddsmakers here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-14-20 | Dodgers -170 v. Braves | Top | 15-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
NLCS Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles over Atlanta at 6:05 pm et on Wednesday. This is by all accounts the Dodgers last stand as they try to avoid falling behind 3-0 in the NLCS on Wednesday night. Los Angeles certainly showed plenty of fight late in last night's game - a tough 8-7 loss - and I look some carry-over from that performance here. If there's a Braves starter they can get to it's Kyle Wright, who takes the ball today. Wright pitched well in a spot start against the Marlins last round but he'll face a tougher challenge here. Note that he lasted at least six innings in just four of eight regular season starts and was tagged for at least four earned runs in three of those outings. Julio Urias will counter for Los Angeles. He has held his own in two postseason starts, allowing just four hits and no earned runs while fanning 11 and walking just one in eight innings of work. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
10-13-20 | Braves v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
NLCS Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Los Angeles at 6:05 pm et on Tuesday. We've seen scoring diminish since the start of the LCS with all three games in the American and National League staying 'under' the total. I expect more of the same on Tuesday afternoon as the Braves and Dodgers play Game 2. Ian Anderson has been outstanding for the Braves. In two postseason starts he has allowed just five hits and no earned runs while striking out 17 and walking only three in 11 2/3 innings of work. I certainly expect Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw to rise the occasion against the young Anderson here. Kershaw has allowed three earned runs on nine hits while posting a 19:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in two postseason starts this year. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-12-20 | Chargers v. Saints UNDER 50 | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 55 m | Show |
NFL MNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and New Orleans at 8:15 pm et on Monday. | |||||||
10-11-20 | Lakers -5 v. Heat | Top | 106-93 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
NBA Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Miami at 7:30 pm et on Sunday. Game 5 on Friday night had very much the look of a 'last stand' of sorts from Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat. Left exhausted at the end of that thrilling affair, I'm not convinced the Heat can keep pace with the Lakers for four quarters on Sunday night. Lebron James' critics have once again come out of the woodwork following that missed opportunity to close this series out in Game 5 - despite his 40-point, 13-rebound performance. I certainly expect another positive response from Lebron (and perhaps more importantly, his supporting cast) here. The Lakers have essentially controlled this series from the jump and I'm not going to knock them for slipping up in their first shot at closing out the series on Friday. Miami has shown plenty of resiliency throughout these playoffs and has proven to be the very definition of a 'tough out'. However, now we're dealing with a very reasonable price to back what is sure to be a determined Lakers squad eager to bring an end to 'bubble life' and deliver the Larry O'Brien trophy back to Los Angeles. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
10-11-20 | Giants v. Cowboys OVER 53.5 | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 25 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Dallas at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. The Cowboys have been an 'over' machine since their lower-scoring than expected season-opener against the Rams in Los Angeles and there's little reason to jump off the train here. The Giants offense has obviously struggled in the absence of RB Saquon Barkley but there's some reason for optimism as they face an absolutely putrid Cowboys offense on Sunday afternoon. Meanwhile, Cowboys QB Dak Prescott should feast on a Giants defense that has yet to face an offense like that of Dallas this season. This Cowboys offense is on a record-setting pace and the G-Men will be hard-pressed to come up with answers. With that being said, the 'Boys are single-digit favorites (at the time of writing) for a reason and we could see a competitive game here. That lends itself to a high-scoring affair in my opinion. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-11-20 | Raiders v. Chiefs -11 | Top | 40-32 | Loss | -108 | 23 h 33 m | Show |
NFL AFC West Game of the Year. My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Las Vegas at 1 pm et on Sunday. I absolutely love the way this one sets up for the Chiefs, even as they play on a short week following Monday's sleepy win over the undermanned Patriots. Las Vegas has fallen on hard times following a hot start, and it's had everything to do with its schedule - which certainly doesn't get any easier here. I don't like the look of the Raiders offense right now at all, with RB Josh Jacobs stuck running behind a weak offensive line, and QB Derek Carr once again struggling to generate any productive plays down the field. Meanwhile, the Chiefs should feast on a Raiders defense that can't stop the run (they're giving up over five yards per rush this season) and are average against the pass. TE Travis Kelce should go off in this contest as he has traditionally owned the Raiders defense. Take Kansas City (10*). | |||||||
10-11-20 | Panthers v. Falcons OVER 53.5 | Top | 23-16 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 19 m | Show |
NFL NFC South Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Carolina and Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'm expecting another shootout at the Mercedes-Benz Dome in Atlanta on Sunday afternoon as the suddenly red hot Panthers roll into town to face the Falcons. Carolina should continue to thrive offensively against a Falcons defense that proven stout against the run but simply can't stop the pass - which has essentially been par for the course in recent years. The Panthers boast an underrated stable of wide receivers led by Robby Anderson and D.J. Moore and should dominate an injury-riddled Falcons defense. Meanwhile, the Atlanta offense is also dealing with some injuries but is expected to have WR Calvin Ridley on the field on Sunday afternoon. The Panthers haven't been able to get after opposing quarterbacks at all so Falcons QB Matt Ryan should have a much easier time than we saw in Monday's ugly loss to the Packers. There's a big difference between facing the Pack at Lambeau Field and hosting the Panthers in the Dome. Even Todd Gurley and the Falcons backfield could have a day on Sunday against a Panthers defense that allows 4.6 yards per rush. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-11-20 | Cardinals -7 v. Jets | 30-10 | Win | 100 | 22 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona minus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. This is a massive bounce-back spot for the Cardinals, who have largely been a disappointment to this point. With the Jets getting torched for over 4.5 yards per rush look for the Cards to go back to basics offensively and lean on their ground attack here. That should serve to open things up for QB Kyler Murray, whose best days almost certainly lie ahead of him following a tough start to the season. The Jets have literally zero upside at this point and this could very well be Adam Gase's final game as head coach. If they weren't able to keep up with the Brett Rypien-led Broncos last Thursday night, they're unlikely to stick with Kliff Kingsbury's Cards here. With veteran statue QB Joe Flacco taking over under center, Arizona will have no excuses for not containing a below average Jets offense. Take Arizona (10*). | |||||||
10-10-20 | Middle Tennessee State v. Florida International -5.5 | 31-28 | Loss | -116 | 21 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Florida International minus the points over Middle Tennessee State at 4 pm et on Saturday. Middle Tennessee State has proven to be one of the weakest teams in the nation this season, opening with four straight ugly losses. Things don't figure to get much easier against an FIU squad that will be looking for its first victory as well on Saturday afternoon. The difference is, the Panthers have played just one game. They came close in that contest, falling in a wild 36-34 contest against favored Liberty. That was back on September 26th. They've had an extra week off to prepare and should be ready for whatever MTSU throws at them on Saturday afternoon. The Panthers will certainly have revenge on their minds after falling by a 50-17 score against the Blue Raiders a year ago. This should prove to be a much different matchup. Take Florida International (10*). | |||||||
10-10-20 | Tennessee v. Georgia -12 | Top | 21-44 | Win | 100 | 20 h 29 m | Show |
SEC Game of the Year. My selection is on Georgia minus the points over Tennessee at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I'll lay the points with the Bulldogs on Saturday afternoon as they aim to remain undefeated in SEC play. While Tennessee checks in with an identical 2-0 record to that of Georgia, the Vols wins have come against the likes of South Carolina and Missouri. They'll be taking a major step up in class in this one. Georgia hasn't allowed a touchdown since the first five minutes of its season-opener against Arkansas two weeks ago. After struggling to get going in that contest, we saw the Bulldogs offense show signs of cohesion in last Saturday's 27-6 rout of Auburn. While there's certainly a look-ahead involved here as Georgia will travel to face Alabama next week, I believe that has been more than factored into this line. Look for the 'Dawgs defense to set the tone early and for their offense to ultimately come up with enough big play to put the game away late. Take Georgia (10*). | |||||||
10-10-20 | Virginia Tech v. North Carolina -3 | 45-56 | Win | 100 | 17 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on North Carolina minus the points over Virginia Tech at 12 noon et on Saturday. This line has come down into our play range as the Tar Heels host the Hokies on Saturday afternoon. North Carolina is off to a 2-0 start but didn't look at that impressive in its most recent victory over Boston College. This is an opportunity for the Tar Heels to make a real statement in ACC play against undefeated Virginia Tech. The Hokies are coming off an unimpressive single touchdown win over what had previously been a lifeless Duke squad. I'm just not convinced the Virginia Tech offense can keep up for four quarters against a North Carolina team that is underrated on both sides of the football in my opinion. Take North Carolina (10*). | |||||||
10-09-20 | Heat v. Lakers OVER 216 | 111-108 | Win | 100 | 24 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Los Angeles at 9 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'over' in Game 2 of this series which was the highest scoring game of the series to date. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play in what could be the clincher for the Lakers on Friday night. The Heat have obviously not backed down at any point in these playoffs and I'm confident we'll see them bring their best effort on Friday. If they're going to extend the series they're obviously going to need to shoot much better than they did in Game 4, when they connected on just 43% of their field goal attempts. On the flip side, I think we can expect a better shooting performance from the Lakers after they made good on just 44% of their attempts in Game 4. We've once again seen a downward shift in the posted total, which much like in Game 2, plays right into our favor here. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-09-20 | Louisville v. Georgia Tech UNDER 64.5 | 27-46 | Loss | -112 | 22 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Louisville and Georgia Tech at 7 pm et on Friday. We're dealing with a very high posted total for this one considering neither offense is all that complex or difficult to prepare for and both teams are coming off a bye week so they've had plenty of time to get ready. Louisville will be desperate to get back on track following consecutive losses to Miami and Pittsburgh. Likewise for Georgia Tech, even if its hopes weren't quite as high as those of the Cardinals entering the season. The Yellow Jackets have dropped consecutive games in blowout fashion against Central Florida and Syracuse. Note that Georgia Tech has yet to score more than 21 points in a game this season. The last meeting between these two teams totaled 94 points but that was back in 2018. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair than most. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-08-20 | Bucs v. Bears UNDER 44.5 | Top | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 24 h 31 m | Show |
TNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and Chicago at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in the Bucs wild, high-scoring win over the Chargers last Sunday but did manage to cash the 'under' in the Bears blowout loss to the Colts. Here, I'll stick with the 'under' as these two 3-1 teams do battle. Playing on a short week the Bucs are in tough with a number of key cogs banged up on offense. Chris Godwin and O.J. Howard have both shown some good chemistry with Tom Brady in the early going but now both are sidelined. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay's backfield continues to deal with a number of injuries as well. Of course they'll be up against an above average Bears defense, on the road no less, on a short week. I have very little faith in the Nick Foles-led Bears offense right now and if you've followed my plays regularly this season you know that I'm high on the Bucs defense. Note that Tampa Bay is giving up just 2.4 yards per rush this season and that really hamstrings a struggling Bears offense. Outside of WR Allen Robinson, there's really no one all that imposing on the Chicago offense. This has the makings of a relatively low-scoring affair. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-08-20 | Tulane +7 v. Houston | 31-49 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tulane plus the points over Houston at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. We know what we're getting with Tulane. The Green Wave are off to a 2-1 start with their lone loss coming in a stunning blown 24-0 halftime lead against Navy. Tulane successfully bounced back from that disappointing loss, delivering a 66-24 win over Southern Miss. Now the Green Wave come in well rested having not played since posting that blowout victory on September 26th. Meanwhile, we don't really know what we're going to get from Houston. The Cougars will be playing their first game of the season and I'm willing to bet that they might not be as good as advertised, or as the betting marketplace believes anyway. I'll grab all the points I can get in this Thursday night matchup. Take Tulane (10*). | |||||||
10-07-20 | Rays v. Yankees UNDER 9 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
MLB American League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Tampa Bay at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. There's a lot of talk of 'juiced balls' thanks to a high-scoring start to the MLB Division Series'. I'm not buying it and expect a return to 'normal' as the Yankees and Rays play their third game in as many days on Wednesday. This series has obviously featured a ton of runs on the strength of plenty of long balls. I look for things to settle down in this one as two veteran starters take the hill in Masahiro Tanaka and Charlie Morton. Morton didn't get a start in the brief Wild Card round so he'll be eager to take the ball here. Keep in mind, this will be his ninth career playoff start having posted a 3.70 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Tanaka will be making his tenth career playoff start having recorded an even better 2.70 ERA and 0.88 WHIP (despite an ugly start against Cleveland last week). Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-06-20 | Marlins +182 v. Braves | Top | 5-9 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
MLB NLDS Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami over Atlanta at 2:08 pm et on Tuesday. I will gladly take the value being offered with the underdog Marlins on Tuesday afternoon. Miami has been undervalued all season. The Marlins certainly enter the NLDS with a real 'no one believes in us' vibe if there is such a thing. Sandy Alcantara will take the ball for Miami in Game 1. He was masterful in his Wild Card round start against the Cubs and has now worked at least six innings in six straight starts going back to the regular season. You would have to go back to August 30th to find the last time Alcantara gave up more than three earned runs in a start. Max Fried will counter for Atlanta. He was on point in his Wild Card round start against the Reds but let's face it, Cincinnati just didn't bring its bats to that series. Note that prior to that start, Fried hadn't worked beyond the fifth inning in any of his last four starts. The last time he faced the Marlins he worked just an inning and gave up three hits and two earned runs on September 23rd. Take Miami (10*). | |||||||
10-05-20 | Falcons v. Packers OVER 56.5 | 16-30 | Loss | -109 | 25 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Green Bay at 8:50 pm et on Monday. This is the being pegged as an explosive shootout by the oddsmakers and I tend to agree. The Falcons have to be in desperation mode at this point and they do draw a favorable matchup against a very beatable Packers defense. The strength of Atlanta is obviously in its offense and while Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley are questionable to play I would bank on one, if not both of the Falcons offense stars suiting up. It may not even matter as Atlanta should find success moving the football on the ground as well with Green Bay having allowed north of five yards per rush this season. The Packers offense is red hot entering this matchup and should face little resistance from a non-existent Falcons defense. Note that Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has absolutely eviscerated the Falcons lately, passing for over 1,000 yards, 11 touchdowns and just two interceptions in his last four games against them. He loses WR Allen Lazard but should have superstar Davante Adams back on the field. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-05-20 | Astros v. A's UNDER 8 | 10-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Oakland at 4:07 pm et on Monday. Neither of these teams hit the ball well during the Wild Card round and I'm anticipating some carry-over following an extended layoff heading into the ALDS. Lance McCullers Jr. has made a successful comeback this season and is a proven playoff performer having posted a career 2.53 ERA in the postseason. I like his chances of holding down an average A's offense here. Meanwhile, Oakland starter Chris Bassitt continues to exceed expectations after turning in a critically important strong outing for the A's against the White Sox last week. In a favored role here I'm confident Bassitt will turn in another sharp performance. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-04-20 | Colts v. Bears UNDER 43.5 | 19-11 | Win | 100 | 76 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Indianapolis and Chicago at 1 pm et on Sunday. While scoring is up across the league through the first three weeks of the season, I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair in Chicago on Sunday afternoon. The Colts should continue to pound away on the ground behind standout rookie RB Jonathan Taylor. QB Philip Rivers has been relegated to 'game manager' status in the latter stages of his career and he should be firmly planted in that role against a solid Bears defense on Sunday. Meanwhile, the Chicago offense will turn to QB Nick Foles after he rallied the team to a come-from-behind win in Atlanta last Sunday. Don't count on another sharp performance from Foles here as he faces an above average but perhaps still underrated Colts defense. We won with the 'over' in the Bears victory over the Falcons last week, but I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'under' in this one. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-04-20 | Chargers v. Bucs UNDER 43.5 | 31-38 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Tampa Bay at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Bucs defense remains an underrated unit, perhaps overshadowed by the team's star-laden offense. Note that the Bucs run defense is allowing under three yards per rush this season. Here, I look for the Tampa Bay defense to dominate a struggling Chargers offense led by rookie QB Justin Herbert. Los Angeles' 2020 campaign pretty much got derailed before it started due to a number of key injuries on both sides of the football. Coming off a discouraging home loss to the Panthers last week there's little reason to anticipate a big bounce-back performance, particularly from the Chargers offense, here. Look for the Bucs to continue to pound away long, clock churning drives on their way to a third straight victory, helping cash 'under' tickets in the process. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-04-20 | Vikings v. Texans OVER 54.5 | 31-23 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the Vikings narrow 31-30 home loss to the Titans last week and I'll go right back to the well with the same play as Minnesota travels to face the reeling Texans on Sunday afternoon. This is another prime blow-up spot for Vikings RB Dalvin Cook as he faces a Houston defense that has been shredded for nearly six yards per rush this season. Even QB Kirk Cousins is set up for success given the Texans complete inability to pressure opposing quarterbacks. On the flip side, the Texans finally catch a scheduling break here after a tough three-game slate to open the season (Chiefs, Ravens and Steelers). The Vikings defense is a shell of its former self due to injuries and offseason departures. Like the Houston defense, Minnesota hasn't been able to get to opposing quarterbacks and figures to struggle against big-time playmaker QB DeShaun Watson in this one. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-04-20 | Jaguars v. Bengals OVER 49 | Top | 25-33 | Win | 100 | 73 h 43 m | Show |
NFL AFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Jacksonville and Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'm expecting a shootout between these two AFC bottom-feeders on Sunday afternoon in Cincinnati. Jacksonville got stymied by the Dolphins of all teams in last week's Thursday nighter. It's interesting that most had high hopes for the Jags Gardner Minshew-led offense heading into that game (myself included) but are now quick to write them off. I'm confident we'll see a big bounce-back performance from the Jags offense against a very beatable Bengals defense on Sunday afternoon. Jacksonville is set up well to open things up given Cincinnati has done little to slow opposing ground attacks, allowing north of 5.2 yards per rush this season. Meanwhile, the Bengals offense has plenty of upside with QB Joe Burrow moving the football consistently in an up-tempo attack. With Jacksonville showing some ability to shut down opposing running games, look for Burrow to take to the air and expose a very beatable Jags secondary in this one. While A.J. Green has been a virtual no-show, the rest of the Bengals receivers have been quietly performing well and building a nice rapport with the rookie Burrow. Look for continued progression from the Cincinnati offense on Sunday. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-04-20 | Ravens -13 v. Washington Football Team | Top | 31-17 | Win | 100 | 73 h 32 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over Washington at 1 pm et on Sunday. This is an absolute smash spot for the Ravens, who obviously have a bad taste in their mouths following Monday's dismantling at the hands of the Chiefs. Washington has been competitive in two of its three games this season, even winning one of them (we cashed with Washington in its Week 1 win over Philadelphia), but there have been some major red flags raised over the last two weeks. QB Dwayne Haskins is looking less and less like the answer for this offense, although he hasn't had much help from his supporting cast outside of WR Terry McLaurin. Here, he faces an elite Baltimore defense that is far better than it showed against Kansas City's 'next-level' offense on Monday night. The Ravens offense is in position to roll against a suddenly injury-plagued Washington defense that lost Matt Ioannidis and Chase Young last Sunday. Note that Washington has allowed nearly 400 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns through three games this season. Its secondary is arguably its weakest point and I'm confident Ravens QB Lamar Jackson will take full advantage of that leaky back-end in this one. With their next game coming at home against the winless Bengals next week, there's no reason for the Ravens to look past Washington. Take Baltimore (10*). | |||||||
10-03-20 | Tulsa v. Central Florida -21 | Top | 34-26 | Loss | -108 | 55 h 34 m | Show |
CFB Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Central Florida minus the points over Tulsa at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. This game has blowout written all over it as Central Florida looks to move to 3-0 on the season. The Knights haven't been particularly sharp, or not as sharp as they'd like to be, on the defensive side of the football but they draw a terrific 'get right' matchup here. Tulsa has played just one game so far this season, falling in a very low-scoring affair against Oklahoma State two weeks ago. Credit the Golden Hurricane for keeping the Cowboys offense at bay in that contest but if their offensive performance (minus RB Shamari Brooks) was any indication, they could be in for a long year. Tulsa actually upset Central Florida by a 34-31 last season so revenge will be on the minds of the Knights here. UCF already appears to be in midseason form offensively after routing East Carolina last Saturday. QB Dillon Gabriel has been extremely efficient and consistent through two games, passing for 825 yards, four touchdowns and just one interception. I don't need to tell you that the Knights offense is absolutely loaded and should run wild against a very beatable Tulsa defense here. Without Brooks in the backfield I just don't see how the Golden Hurricane keep within arm's reach for four quarters on Saturday. Take Central Florida (10*). | |||||||
10-03-20 | LSU -21 v. Vanderbilt | 41-7 | Win | 100 | 54 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on LSU minus the points over Vanderbilt at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. I'll lay the big number with LSU in a strong bounce-back spot on the road against Vanderbilt on Saturday. The Tigers fell short in a stunning 44-34 loss to Mississippi State last Saturday. They draw a far more favorable matchup here against the Commodores. Vandy held its own in a narrow 17-12 setback on the road against a good Texas A&M squad so there's reason to believe it will be full of confidence heading into this one. However, I'm not convinced the Commodores can stay competitive with another poor offensive showing in this one. Note that A&M was driving to potentially go up 21-5 in the third quarter of last week's game before fumbling the football and giving Vandy good field position in what led to the Commodores only touchdown of the game. I'm not sure that contest was quite as close as the final score indicated. LSU shook off the cobwebs last Saturday and I'm confident we'll see a far better performance on both sides of the football this week. Take LSU (10*). | |||||||
10-03-20 | Virginia Tech -11.5 v. Duke | 38-31 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Virginia Tech minus the points over Duke at 4 pm et on Saturday. I had Duke pegged as one of the ACC's worst teams at the onset of the season and we've already successfully faded the Blue Devils once, cashing with Boston College in a blowout two weeks ago. Here, I'll go back to the well and fade Duke again as it hosts Virginia Tech. The Hokies made their long-awaited season debut last Saturday, rolling to a 45-24 win over N.C. State. I like the fact that Virginia Tech has room for improvement here, however, particularly on the defensive side of the football. Duke shouldn't pose much of a threat offensively, noting that it has scored a grand total of just 39 points through three games - all losses - this season. While they did put up a season-high 20 points in last week's loss at Virginia, there were extended scoring droughts once again as they managed a touchdown on a defensive breakdown with one minute remaining in the first quarter but then didn't find the end zone again until over midway through the third quarter - their last score of the game. Take Virginia Tech (10*). | |||||||
10-03-20 | Memphis -1.5 v. SMU | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 50 m | Show |
CFB AAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Memphis minus the points over SMU at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. Since Memphis last played back on September 5th, SMU has played a pair of games, winning in blowout fashion against North Texas and Stephen F. Austin (scoring a whopping 115 points in the process). Most bettors have short memories so it's easy to understand why the idle Tigers are laying only a couple of points in this matchup. I certainly consider Memphis to be the superior team. Note that the Tigers season-opening win came over an Arkansas State squad that went on to defeat Kansas State on the road the very next week. That win looks a lot better now than it did in early September. I'm confident the Tigers will be able to shake off the rust and I believe they'll benefit from facing a familiar opponent in SMU here. Note that Memphis recorded a wild 54-48 win over SMU in the most recent meeting between the schools last November. I'm concerned about the SMU defense in this one after it allowed 59 points in its two previous games against FBS opponents this season. An experienced Memphis offense is capable of scoring at will in this game and I expect the Tigers defense to be flying all over the field after nearly a month off. Take Memphis (10*). | |||||||
10-03-20 | Baylor -2.5 v. West Virginia | 21-27 | Loss | -115 | 45 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baylor minus the points over West Virginia at 12 noon et on Saturday. Bettors seem to be a little low on Baylor in the early going this season. Last week they were laying a reasonable 17 points against a still-pitiful Kansas squad and went on to win the game by 34 points (we won with Baylor in that contest). Here, the Bears draw another favorable matchup against a rebuilding West Virginia squad. The Mountaineers dropped a 27-13 decision against Oklahoma State last Saturday. The fact that the Cowboys are still sleepwalking through their early season schedule played a factor in that game as far as I'm concerned. I'm not convinced West Virginia has the offense to keep pace with Baylor in this one. Take Baylor (10*). | |||||||
10-02-20 | Heat v. Lakers OVER 216 | Top | 114-124 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
NBA Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Los Angeles at 9 pm et on Friday. This total is going the wrong way in my opinion following an 'under' result in Game 1. Keep in mind, prior to that relatively low-scoring series-opening result, seven straight games involving these two teams (in the Conference Finals) had gone 'over' the total we're dealing with here in Game 2. The Heat will likely be undermanned in this one with Bam Adebayo dealing with a neck strain. His absence shouldn't be underestimated as he was named to the NBA All-Defensive Second Team just last month. I do think we'll see the Heat punch back after their no-show in Game 1, although the lopsided spread would seem to indicate otherwise. In fact, neither team performed quite up to standards offensively in the series-opener - yet the final score still nearly eclipsed the total. Even the Lakers have room for impnrovement offensively. I expect a different story to unfold here on Friday night and we're being offered a very reasonable total. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-02-20 | Cardinals v. Padres OVER 9 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
MLB Wild Card Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and San Diego at 7:08 pm et on Friday. We've seen two wild, high-scoring games to open this series with a grand total of 31 runs scored and the amazing thing is, were it not for some absent clutch hitting from the Padres in Game 1, that total could be much higher. Here, I expect more of the same as we should see the two overworked bullpens log plenty of innings in this third and deciding game. The Padres seem to still be uncertain of who will start this game but Mike Clevinger's name has been tossed around as he looks to return from an elbow injury. Jack Flaherty will start for the Cardinals. He simply hasn't lived up to expectations following a stellar 2019 campaign. While Petco Park has always been known as a pitcher's park, the Padres have certainly turned that idea on its head here in 2020. Look for the scoring barrage to continue on Friday evening. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-01-20 | Broncos v. Jets +1 | 37-28 | Loss | -113 | 36 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York plus the points over Denver at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. I'll plug my nose and back the Jets in this Thursday night stinker. The Broncos carried some optimism into training camp back in August but let's face it, injuries have completely derailed their season. While this is a winnable game, I'm not convinced Denver has the personnel to do it. Note that Broncos quarterbacks have gotten absolutely crushed through three games - sacked a combined 13 times. Now they turn to inexperienced Brett Rypien, who doesn't figure to fare much better behind a leaky offensive line. Meanwhile, the Broncos injury-ravaged defense has done little to slow opposing quarterbacks, allowing a 68% completion percentage and forcing just one interception compared to seven touchdowns. With WR Jamison Crowder expected back on the field, I do look for Jets QB Sam Darnold to make a last stand, so to speak, and perhaps save his head coach Adam Gase's job (for one week anyway). Take New York (10*). | |||||||
10-01-20 | Cardinals v. Padres -150 | Top | 9-11 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
MLB N.L. Wild Card Game of the Year. My selection is on San Diego over St. Louis at 7:08 pm et on Thursday. The Padres fell short in the opener of this series yesterday - a game that marked their long-awaited return to the MLB postseason. Perhaps it should have been expected that they would experience some nerves and that certainly appeared to be the case early on as they fell behind by four runs before they even had a chance to bat. Over the game's final eight innings the Padres played the Cards even and I expect them to get over the hump and even up this series with a victory on Thursday. Zach Davies was terrific during the regular season, posting a career-high 8.2 strikeouts per nine innings while also issuing his lowest walks per nine innings since the 2016 campaign. His 1.07 WHIP was also a career-low, as was his 2.73 ERA. While we are talking about a relatively small sample size, those numbers are still worth noting. Cards starter Adam Wainwright held up pretty well as he winds down a long, storied big league career. With that being said, he posted his lowest strikeouts per nine innings in three years and also matched a career-high for home runs allowed per nine innings. It's been somewhat of a 'Cinderella' season for the Padres and I don't expect it to end today. Take San Diego (10*). | |||||||
09-30-20 | Yankees v. Indians UNDER 8 | Top | 10-9 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Cleveland at 7:08 pm et on Wednesday. The opener of this series totaled 15 runs last night with the Yankees bats ambushing one of the best starters in baseball in Shane Bieber. Here, I look for a much lower-scoring affair as two veteran starters take the mound in a critical Game 2. Masahiro Tanaka was an All-Star for the first time since his rookie season in 2014 last year and actually improved on his numbers here in 2020. Tanaka posted more strikeouts per nine innings, fewer walks and fewer hits (all stats per nine innings). I look for him to keep an average Indians offense at bay on Wednesday night. Cookie Carrasco will counter for Cleveland. He recorded his highest strikeouts per nine innings of his career during the regular season while also cutting his home runs allowed (per nine innings) virtually in half compared to last year. That's not to mention the fact he allowed his fewest hits per nine innings since the 2014 season. The Indians bullpen was solid down the stretch, recording a 3.59 ERA over the final two weeks of the regular season and while the Yankees 'pen wasn't nearly as good, I'm confident it can hold up against the Cleveland bats. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-30-20 | Reds +1.5 v. Braves | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cincinnati +1.5 runs over Atlanta at 12:08 pm et on Wednesday. The Reds closed out the regular season on a red hot 11-3 run and I look for them to keep it going in the opener of their Wild Card series against the Braves in Atlanta. I'll grab the insurance run with Cincinnati here as the price warrants such a decision. Trevor Bauer will take the ball for the Reds. He has enjoyed a career year, even if we are talking about a relatively small sample size. Note that his strikeouts per nine innings were up and his walks were down compared to his previous best season in 2018 in which he was an All-Star and finished sixth in A.L. Cy Young voting and 22nd in A.L. MVP voting. No other starter gave up fewer hits per nine innings this season. Braves starter Max Fried went 7-0 with a 2.25 ERA and 1.09 WHIP this season but worked beyond the fifth inning just twice in his final seven starts. It's easy to forget that Fried went 17-6 last season. This year he struck out fewer batters per nine innings compared to last year while walking more. Note that he gave up just 0.3 home runs per nine innings, by far a career low number. However, in his final outing he gave up a pair of home runs in just a single inning. Take Cincinnati +1.5 runs (10*). | |||||||
09-29-20 | Blue Jays v. Rays -183 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 20 h 37 m | Show |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Toronto at 5 pm et on Tuesday. If the Jays are going to steal a game in this series it's going to be with Hyun-Jin Ryu on the mound, not Matt Shoemaker. The Jays made the interesting choice to name Shoemaker their Game 1 starter. I suppose it doesn't really matter all that much in a three-game series but I would have thought they would want to put their best foot forward in the series-opener. Shoemaker enjoyed a fine bounce-back season but he'll have a tough time keeping the A.L.-leading Rays at bay in this one. Rays starter Blake Snell enjoyed another fine season, recording at least 11 strikeouts per nine innings for a third straight campaign while giving up fewer hits and walks per nine innings compared to a year ago. I believe Tampa Bay should be laying an even steeper price here. Take Tampa Bay (10*). | |||||||
09-29-20 | White Sox -112 v. A's | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Oakland at 3 pm et on Tuesday. I think the betting marketplace has got it right installing the White Sox as a favorite here. This is likely the biggest pitching edge the Sox will have in this series as they send Lucas Giolito to the hill against Jesus Luzardo. In a short three-game series, they obviously need to make the most of it. Chicago beat up on left-handed starting pitching all season (14-0 vs. LH starters) and I look for more of the same against Luzardo here. Look for the Pale Hose to gain the upper hand in the opener. Take Chicago (10*). | |||||||
09-28-20 | Chiefs v. Ravens -170 | Top | 34-20 | Loss | -170 | 24 h 34 m | Show |
NFL Moneyline Game of the Year. My selection is on Baltimore (moneyline) over Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Monday. It's not often I release plays on the moneyline, but here I believe it is warranted. I actually expect this price to become more favorable as kickoff approaches on Monday as we should see some money come in on the underdog Chiefs - a rare opportunity to back Kansas City at a plus-money return. I'll go the other way as I'm confident the Ravens will 'hold serve' in this their third meeting with the Chiefs over the last 2+ seasons. The Chiefs took the two previous matchups but both of those were played in Kansas City. The two victories came by a combined eight points. Note that the Ravens managed to score 52 points in those two losses and arguably have an even more cohesive offensive unit here in 2020. There's not a lot to say that hasn't already been said when it comes to the Chiefs offense. They're the defending Super Bowl champions for a reason. However, this will obviously be their toughest test of the young season to date as they face an absolutely loaded Ravens defense. In fact, you could argue that Baltimore's defense has been built to beat the likes of Kansas City. Here, I look for that 'D' to come up with enough big plays to ultimately hold off Patrick Mahomes and the mighty Chiefs. Take Baltimore moneyline (10*). | |||||||
09-28-20 | Lightning -162 v. Stars | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 23 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Dallas at 8:05 pm et on Monday. | |||||||
09-27-20 | Bucs -6 v. Broncos | 28-10 | Win | 100 | 74 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay minus the points over Denver at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. Credit the Broncos for making things interesting against the Steelers last Sunday. In fact, Denver checks into this one sporting a perfect 2-0 ATS record. I don't expect the Broncos to make it three straight ATS victories here, however, as this is a nightmarish matchup, even at home. The Bucs got on track with a sloppy but generally lopsided win over the Panthers last Sunday. I do expect them to sharpen things up on both sides of the football, but particularly on offense as the season progresses. This is a true smash spot for their offense against a Broncos defense that has simply been decimated by injuries. Offensively, Denver is forced to turn to Jeff Driskel in a starting role after Drew Lock went down last week. Not only that but Driskel won't have elite WR Courtland Sutton to work with as he's injured as well. There's just little reason to have any optimism that the Broncos can sustain drives or consistently put points on the board, particularly against an underrated Bucs defense that has done a nice job of handling the Saints and Panthers through two games. Take Tampa Bay (10*). | |||||||
09-27-20 | Jets v. Colts -11 | 7-36 | Win | 100 | 74 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Indianapolis minus the points over New York at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll lay the points with the Colts on Sunday as they welcome the hapless Jets to Indy. Despite facing an injury-decimated 49ers squad, the Jets still went out and embarrassed themselves last Sunday, thankfully without their fans in the stadium. Now they draw a more unfavorable matchup as they travel to face a Colts squad that 'got right' in last week's rout of the Vikings. The Indy defense should absolutely feast on an undermanned Jets offense here. The Colts enter this game ranking third in the NFL in sacks with seven and should take advantage of a Jets o-line that is missing its anchor, C Connor McGovern. With the Jets giving up five yards per rush this season they're unlikely to slow the quickly-ascending rookie RB Jonathan Taylor. QB Philip Rivers isn't much more than a game-manager at this stage of his career, although I will point out that his numbers would look a little better were it not for a key T.Y. Hilton drop that would have resulted in a long touchdown last week. Here, look for the Colts to take care of the football on offense, capitalize on a number of short fields afforded by their defense and win in convincing fashion. Take Indianapolis (10*). | |||||||
09-27-20 | Titans v. Vikings OVER 49.5 | Top | 31-30 | Win | 100 | 71 h 15 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and Minnesota at 1 pm et on Sunday. When you think Titans and Vikings the first thing that comes to mind might not be 'shootout' but I believe that's precisely what we're in for on Sunday afternoon. It's desperation time for the Vikings after suffering back-to-back beatdowns at the hands of the Packers and Colts. The good news is this matchup could play right into their struggling offense's hands - or more specifically the legs of RB Dalvin Cook. The Titans have had a tough time stopping the run in the early going this season, allowing a whopping 5.15 yards per rush to enemy backs. Here, we can expect them to have their hands full stopping Cook, while also missing some key cogs in their secondary, improving the chances of WR Adam Thielen going off. On the flip side, the injury-plagued Vikings defense isn't likely to slow an underrated Titans offense. Without DE Danielle Hunter the Vikes haven't shown any semblance of a pass rush and a clean pocket should serve Ryan Tannehill well in this one. Meanwhile, RB Derrick Henry should find plenty of room to run against a Vikes front that will be without LB Anthony Barr. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-27-20 | Bengals v. Eagles -4.5 | 23-23 | Loss | -102 | 71 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Bengals in each of the last two weeks but were certainly fortunate to do so last week as Joe Burrow led his team on a late backdoor-clinching touchdown drive in Cleveland. There are obviously going to be some growing pains in Cincy, despite all of Burrow's upside. Here, I look for the Bengals to get blown out by what will be an extremely motivated 0-2 Eagles squad. Philadelphia has drawn a pair of tough matchups to open the campaign considering its injury-ravaged offensive line. Not surprisingly, QB Carson Wentz has taken a beating. The good news here is that the Bengals don't have much of a pass rush, having recorded just two sacks through their first two games. Look for Wentz to enjoy a solid 'get right' performance here while RB Miles Sanders takes care of the rest after shaking off the rust last Sunday. I'll gladly take the discount being offered to back the superior team in this matchup. Take Philadelphia (10*). | |||||||
09-27-20 | Washington Football Team v. Browns UNDER 45 | 20-34 | Loss | -107 | 70 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Cleveland at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Browns are going to have to show me a little more consistency before I start believing in their offense. They exploded against the Bengals last week but that shouldn't have come as a big surprise as Cincinnati boasts one of the league's weakest defenses and the game was played on a short week. Here, Cleveland will face a Washington defense that can get after the quarterback. The Washington offense got stuck in the mud last Sunday in Arizona, only managing a couple of late touchdown scores (and failed two-point conversions that cost us our 'over' ticket). The jury is still out on QB Dwayne Haskins. We did see Washington's offense put up some points in Week 1 but that was only thanks to their defense setting them up with short field after short field in the second half. I don't believe we'll see the Washington pass rush obliterate a solid Cleveland offensive line the way it did Philadelphia in that contest. Look for Baker Mayfield to take a backseat to Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt in this one as the Browns control the game flow and ultimately churn away the clock in a relatively low-scoring affair. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-26-20 | Stars +144 v. Lightning | 3-2 | Win | 144 | 13 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas over Tampa Bay at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the Stars to stave off elimination at the hands of the Lightning on Saturday. Dallas certainly showed plenty of fight last night but ultimately fell in overtime. The Stars have proven to be a tough out throughout these playoffs and there's little reason to expect them to roll over in this one. Behind a much sharper defensive effort look for Dallas to push this series to a sixth game. Take Dallas (10*). | |||||||
09-26-20 | Kansas v. Baylor -17 | 14-47 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baylor minus the points over Kansas at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. I think the only reason we're dealing with a somewhat reasonable pointspread here is due to the fact that Baylor hasn't played a game yet. The Bears are obviously eager to get going and get a cupcake matchup to open things up with Kansas coming off a lopsided loss to Coastal Carolina in its season opener two weeks ago. Baylor's defense shouldn't have much trouble gameplanning for a Kansas offense that can run the football but do little else. It should only be a matter of time before this one gets away from the Jayhawks. Take Baylor (10*). | |||||||
09-26-20 | Stephen F Austin v. SMU OVER 60.5 | 7-50 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Stephen F. Austin and SMU at 7 pm et on Saturday. This game has shootout written all over it as SMU looks to continue its hot start against FCS squad Stephen F. Austin. Mustangs QB Shane Buechele has picked up right where he left off last season, throwing for over 700 yards and five touchdowns through two games this season. There's little reason to expect him to ease up against the Lumberjacks on Saturday night. Meanwhile, the SMU backfield has been absolutely rolling and faces another favorable matchup here. On the flip side, SFA QB Trae Self showed some progression in last week's loss, passing for 285 yards and a touchdown after struggling in the season-opener. Keep in mind, the Mustangs have already given up 59 points in two games this season and it's not as if they've faced top level competition. SMU has posted victories against Texas State and North Texas. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-26-20 | Army v. Cincinnati -13 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 32 h 17 m | Show |
CFB Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Cincinnati minus the points over Army at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Bearcats as they host an Army squad that has come roaring out of the gates, but against inferior opposition. Let's keep things in perspective. The Black Knights are a perfect 2-0 and have blown out each of their first two opponents but their schedule has afforded them very winnable matchups against Middle Tennessee State and Louisiana-Monroe. Things get an awful lot tougher this week as they hit the road for the first time to face an underrated Cincinnati squad that might be the second-best team in the AAC (behind UCF). Army has a national top-25 ranking entering this contest which may lead some bettors to back it with the generous helping of points but I expect this one to get away from the Black Knights. Their offense has been humming but there will be some bumps in the road and this is a tough matchup against an experienced and talented Cincinnati defense. The real key in this contest should be the Bearcats offense which has the tools to dominate a good but not great Army defense. Behind a big performance from QB Desmond Ridder as well as a loaded backfield, look for the Bearcats to roll. Take Cincinnati (10*). | |||||||
09-25-20 | Lightning v. Stars UNDER 5 | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 31 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and Dallas at 8:05 pm et on Friday. Game 3 was an anomaly in this series as the contest quickly got away from the Stars and it ultimately turned out to be a high-scoring affair. I expect a return to 'normal' on Friday as I don't see the winning side topping out north of three goals. I've noted throughout this series that some regression was coming from Stars goaltender Anton Khudobin given all the hockey he's played in the last two months. Well, we finally saw him lay an egg in Game 3 but I'm confident he'll come back strong on Friday. Meanwhile, the Stars have yet to show that they can really hang with the Bolts offensively. Dallas is here thanks to a stingy style of play that has worked throughout these playoffs. Look for the Stars to get back to that in a tightly-contested, low-scoring Game 4. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-25-20 | Middle Tennessee State v. UTSA UNDER 60 | Top | 35-37 | Loss | -102 | 35 h 54 m | Show |
C-USA Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Middle Tennessee State and UTSA at 8 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' at the Alamodome on Friday night as I don't expect a shootout between the Blue Raiders and Roadrunners. Middle Tennessee is off to an 0-2 start, scoring a grand total of 14 points in the process. While this is certainly the Blue Raiders most favorable matchup to date, I'm still not convinced we'll see their offense get rolling. Note that in last week's 47-14 rout at the hands of Troy they scored a touchdown in the final two minutes of the first quarter but then didn't find the end zone again until the game was completely out of hand with two minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. UTSA won a wild 51-48 overtime game against Texas State in its season-opener but reverted to low-scoring form in last week's 24-10 victory over Stephen F. Austin. In that win, the Roadrunners didn't score a touchdown until two minutes into the second quarter. Impressively, their defense gave up just a single touchdown, that coming in the dying seconds of the second quarter. The last meeting between these two teams reached 70 total points but that was back in 2016. Expect a different story to unfold here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-24-20 | Dolphins v. Jaguars OVER 48 | 31-13 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Jacksonville at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. We're dealing with a relatively high total for a reason in this one. I'm anticipating an entertaining Thursday night affair between the lowly Dolphins and Jaguars. Miami catches its most favorable matchup of the season to date after facing the Patriots and Bills in its first two contests. The Jaguars were assumed to be 'tanking' this season having ushered out virtually all of their defensive talent. I still consider Jacksonville to have one of the league's worst defenses, even if it has held up fairly well through two games. Keep in mind, the Jags have drawn the Colts and Titans - two very average offensive teams - in their first two games. They get a below average offense in the Dolphins on Thursday, but I actually feel Miami has some upside here - at least offensively. I don't expect Miami to bang its head against the wall trying to run the football against a Jags defense that has proven to be capable of stopping the run. Instead look for QB Ryan Fitzpatrick to sling the football all over the field against a very beatable Jacksonville secondary. Of course, Jags QB Gardner Minshew isn't one to back down from a challenge. Look for him to rise to the occasion in this primetime affair as well. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-24-20 | UAB -6.5 v. South Alabama | 42-10 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on UAB minus the points over South Alabama at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. I had South Alabama pegged as one of the nation's worst teams prior to the Jaguars surprising season-opening win at Southern Miss (we won with the 'under' in that game). USA followed up that performance with a hard-fought loss at home against Tulane and then had last week off. I look for the Jaguars to fall short of the mark as they host UAB here. The Blazers looked rather unimpressive offensively in their most recent game - a 31-14 loss at Miami. Keep in mind, that loss doesn't look so bad now as the Canes are off to a strong start, fresh off an impressive road win over Louisville. I expect to see the UAB defense rise up and contain the Jaguars aerial attack in this one while the offense does enough to secure the win and cover. Both teams are without their starting QB's but as I mentioned, this is more about the Blazers stepping up and taking over the game. Take UAB (10*). | |||||||
09-23-20 | Lightning v. Stars +140 | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas over Tampa Bay at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Stars were in a tough spot in Game 2 of this series. After winning Game 1 they knew they were going to get the Lightning's best effort on Monday, and Tampa Bay not surprisingly came out on fire, scoring three goals in the first period en route to a 3-2 victory. Now that the series is level again, I look for the Stars to show some push back on Wednesday night. I've been anticipating some regression from Starts goaltender Anton Khudobin given all the hockey he has played in the last two months. While he did suffer a bit of a lapse in the first period of Game 2, I expect a return to form here in Game 3. Take Dallas (10*). | |||||||
09-22-20 | Lakers v. Nuggets +6.5 | 106-114 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver plus the points over Los Angeles at 9 pm et on Tuesday. While the nature of that Game 2 loss may have broken most teams, I don't expect the Nuggets to fold the tent. Denver has shown plenty of resiliency throughout the playoffs and should bounce back here as it has a lot of positives to build on following Game 2. While I also lean to the 'under' in this matchup, I'll stick with the side and back the Nuggets to at the very least take this one down to the wire. Take Denver (10*). | |||||||
09-21-20 | Saints v. Raiders UNDER 49 | 24-34 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and Las Vegas at 8:15 pm et on Monday. The two previous primetime games this week have both sailed 'over' the total. This is probably the game that most believed would have the most shootout potential of the three primetime affairs. I'm actually anticipating a lower-scoring contest than most. The Saints should be able to take away the Raiders offensive strength in this one and that's RB Josh Jacobs. New Orleans was able to stymie Tampa's ground attack a week ago while the Raiders torched a bottom-tier Panthers run defense. Here the Saints should be able to flip the script on Las Vegas. While the Raiders defense is average at best and would generally have its hands full with the likes of the Saints, here I actually feel they can find some success. New Orleans certainly didn't appear to be in midseason form offensively last Sunday and now has to deal with the absence of all-world WR Michael Thomas. While RB Alvin Kamara should get his in this one, I don't see this as a true smash spot for the Saints offense. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-21-20 | Stars v. Lightning -147 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
NHL Stanley Cup Final Game of the Year. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Dallas at 8:05 pm et on Monday. While I did like the Stars to win this series at the outset, and my opinion certainly hasn't changed following Game 1, I do look for the Lightning to even things up at a game apiece on Monday night. As I've been saying for quite some time now, at some point you have to figure we see some cracks in Stars G Anton Khudobin's armor. He's played a ton of hockey in these playoffs, and has faced a boatload of shots. That was no different in the series opener as the Lightning poured it on (as usual) in the third period. Look for Tampa Bay to do a much better job of converting on its opportunities here in Game 2. The price is right to back the Bolts. Take Tampa Bay (10*). | |||||||
09-20-20 | Ravens -7 v. Texans | 33-16 | Win | 100 | 48 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over Houston at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Ravens last Sunday as they annihilated the overmatched Browns. After Cleveland showed some life on Thursday night, that win looks all the more impressive. Now Baltimore heads to Houston to face a Texans squad that I feel could turn out to be a punching bag this season. It's only a matter of time before Bill O'Brien's time is up in H-Town and this game should accelerate that clock. The Ravens run-oriented attack should absolutely feast on a Texans defense that was torched for 168 yards by the Chiefs backfield last week. Meanwhile, the Houston secondary is in shambles and should have no answers for the Ravens capable wide receiving corps. QB Deshaun Watson has to be wondering what his future holds in Houston following the departure of WR DeAndre Hopkins. While Will Fuller can serve as a Hopkins clone in some ways, he's obviously injury-prone and can't carry the passing game all on his own. The Ravens are positively loaded on the defensive side of the football and already proved they could contain Watson in last year's meeting. There's little reason to expect anything different this time around as it should only be a matter of time before Baltimore stretches out the margin. Take Baltimore (10*). | |||||||
09-20-20 | Chiefs v. Chargers UNDER 48 | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 48 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and Los Angeles at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. While I do expect both offenses to have some success moving the football in this game, I also expect plenty of stalled drives, or drives resulting in field goals rather than touchdowns. The real key here is the Chargers offense and whether they can stay on the field long enough to keep Chiefs QB Pat Mahomes off of it. I believe they can. We saw last week that this Chargers offense will be a little different than the one we saw with Phillip Rivers at the helm. I do believe QB Tyrod Taylor can get out and run a little bit on this Chiefs defense, and I also like the Chargers stable of running backs led by Austin Ekeler and rookie Joshua Kelley. The problem for L.A. might be finishing drives with the Chiefs owning a considerable advantage in terms of their pass rush, and the potential of bull-rushing the Chargers o-line which will be missing its anchor, center Mike Pouncey. Look for the L.A. defense, even without a couple of key cogs, to do just enough to contain Mahomes and company to help keep this one 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-20-20 | Chiefs -8.5 v. Chargers | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -104 | 48 h 51 m | Show |
NFL AFC West Game of the Month. My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Los Angeles at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. First off, it's worth noting that the SU winner has gone an incredible 18-1-1 ATS in the Chiefs last 20 regular season games. Here, I certainly expect to see the Chiefs prevail and with that being said, I'm confident they can cover the somewhat lofty number. While the Chargers have shown the ability to contain Patrick Mahomes in previous meetings, I'm not sure they're going to have any answers for the Chiefs ground game led by super rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire. I'm also not convinced Los Angeles will be able to finish enough drives with 7's on the board against a still-underrated Chiefs defense that's strength lies in its pass rush. Keep in mind, the Chargers will be without their o-line anchor in center Mike Pouncey for this one. That opens the door for the Chiefs front seven to get into the backfield with consistency in this one. The Chargers are in a state of change offensively going from immobile QB Phillip Rivers to the agile Tyrod Taylor. As we saw last Sunday, this is a unit that will likely go through some growing pains in the early going and I don't see this as an ideal matchup for them to move to 2-0 on the campaign. Take Kansas City (10*). | |||||||
09-20-20 | Washington Football Team v. Cardinals OVER 46.5 | 15-30 | Loss | -110 | 55 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Arizona at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. This has the potential to be a sneaky shootout in the late window of games on Sunday afternoon. We had a close eye on Washington last Sunday, cashing both the side and total in its upset win over Philadelphia. Here, I look for Washington find some continued success offensively with WR Terry McLaurin in line for a 2020 breakout game matched up against Patrick Peterson. While RB Antonio Gibson didn't get off to the start that most had hoped for, he should play a role against a beatable Cardinals run defense here. The Washington pass rush absolutely feasted on the Eagles decimated offensive line last Sunday. Here, I look for QB Kyler Murray to take advantage of Washington's aggressiveness in the pass rush to get out of the pocket and find his targets downfield if need be. WR DeAndre Hopkins showed tremendous chemistry with Murray in the opener and the duo should build on that performance here. Meanwhile, I consider the Cards to have one of the most underrated RB combos in the league in Kenyan Drake and Chase Edmonds. Look for them to find plenty of open field in this one. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-20-20 | Falcons v. Cowboys OVER 53.5 | Top | 39-40 | Win | 100 | 53 h 2 m | Show |
NFL NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Dallas at 1 pm et on Sunday. There's no question we're dealing with a high posted total in this one but it's high for a reason. I'm expecting a shootout. The Falcons draw a favorable matchup here, at least as far as their offense goes. The Cowboys only gave up 20 points in last week's loss to the Rams but the damage could have been much worse. Dallas is now even more undermanned after losing elite LB Leighton Vander Esch. Their secondary is a weak point, one that the Falcons should be able to take full advantage of. Even against a tough Seahawks pass defense last week, Falcons WR Julio Jones came up with 150+ yards receiving. Cowboys QB Dak Prescott was under duress for much of the game against the Rams last week. We should see a different story unfold here, however, as the Falcons pass rush. While Atlanta has been tough against the run in recent years, it has had little success stopping the pass or containing opposing quarterbacks that can scramble. That plays right into the hands of Prescott and the up-tempo Cowboys offense, which should feast in its home-opener. After a relatively quiet opening week, look for the ultra-talented Dallas receiving corps to put up big numbers here. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-20-20 | Panthers v. Bucs -8 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 53 h 51 m | Show |
NFL Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay minus the points over Carolina at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Panthers blew an excellent opportunity to earn a much-needed opening week win last Sunday against the Raiders (given their tough early season schedule they could be staring down an awful start). Here, I look for them to get blown out at the hands of a hungry Bucs squad. Tampa Bay fell short in last week's showdown with the Saints, largely due to the inept play of its offense. More on that in a moment. First, let's talk about the Bucs underrated defense, which held the Saints to just 6.4 yards per play last Sunday, picking up right where it left off following a red hot finish to last season. The Panthers offense obviously revolves around RB Christian McCaffrey but there's reason to believe he could be held in check here after Tampa Bay completely shut him down in both meetings last season. The Bucs offense looked out of sync in Tom Brady's debut last Sunday. This is a tremendous bounce-back spot, however, as the Panthers own one of the league's weakest defenses. The Raiders torched the Panthers for 34 points last Sunday. You know your defense has a problem when you're giving up nearly double-digit yards per play against QB Derek Carr. While Bucs WR Chris Godwin could miss this game after entering concussion protocol mid-week, this is very much a receiving corps by committee and I expect Tampa's wealth of pass-catchers to pick up the slack in his possible absence. I don't need to tell you that Tom Brady's motivation level will be sky-high (it always is) after getting somewhat called out by head coach Bruce Arians. Take Tampa Bay (10*). | |||||||
09-20-20 | Broncos v. Steelers UNDER 40.5 | 21-26 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Pittsburgh at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll take a shot with the 'under', even with the low posted total in this one on Sunday afternoon. Both teams are playing on a short week following a unique training camp that included no preseason games. The Broncos are a lower-tier offensive team to begin with and are dealing with a number of key injuries, including those to key players WR Courtland Sutton and RB Philip Lindsay. I look for them to employ a rather conservative offense against an aggressive Steelers defense here. While the Broncos defense isn't what it once was, missing a number of key players from recent squads, it can still play well, as we saw this past Monday night against the Titans. In that contest, the Broncos held up well against one of the league's toughest running backs in Derrick Henry, allowing just 3.7 yards per rush. The Steelers offense has a lot of upside with a healthy Big Ben under center, but it may not have to keep its foot on the gas for four quarters in a projected one-sided affair here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-20-20 | Giants +5.5 v. Bears | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 52 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York plus the points over Chicago at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll grab the generous helping of points with the Giants on Sunday afternoon at Soldier Field. We successfully faded New York in Monday's blowout loss to the Steelers but this is a fine bounce-back spot. Look for RB Saquon Barkley in particular to feast on what appears to be a bottom-tier Bears run defense. Chicago gave up 150+ total yards against the Lions below average stable of running backs last Sunday. After turning in the worst performance of his career to date, Barkley should be the focal point of the G-Men offense here. Credit Mitchell Trubisky and the Bears for rallying from a big fourth quarter deficit in Detroit last week but that had more to do with the Lions ineptitude than anything else. I look for Trubisky to struggle, even in a favorable matchup against a very average Giants defense. Outside of WR Allen Robinson, there's nothing all that imposing about the Bears offense. Take New York (10*). | |||||||
09-20-20 | Bills -5.5 v. Dolphins | 31-28 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday. While the Dolphins certainly have bright days ahead, it's going to continue to be a slog here in the early going this season. Miami made a new-look Patriots squad look awfully good last Sunday. I expect more of the same against a superior Bills team this week. Buffalo should absolutely have its way with a very beatable Dolphins defense. QB Josh Allen should absolutely be able to replicate Pats QB Cam Newton's performance against Miami as he possesses similar tools. Note that Miami gave up a whopping 217 rushing yards in last week's loss. It's only a matter of time before the Fins turn to Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback, with the whispers getting a whole lot louder following vet Ryan Fitzpatrick's three-interception performance last Sunday. Buffalo boasts a truly elite defense and should have little trouble containing a banged-up Dolphins offense here. Take Buffalo (10*). | |||||||
09-20-20 | Rams v. Eagles +1 | 37-19 | Loss | -115 | 52 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over Los Angeles at 1 pm et on Sunday. We successfully faded the Eagles in last Sunday's loss in Washington but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back them as they return home to host the Rams this week. Philadelphia is expected to get some key cogs back on the field this week in the form of pass rush specialists Derek Barnett and Brandon Graham and right tackle Lane Johnson. If all three can play, that would be a huge boost to a team that is desperate for a strong bounce-back performance. RB Miles Sanders' absence was certainly felt in last Sunday's loss as well and all indications are he'll be back to full strength and on the field this week. I don't have a lot of faith in Rams QB Jared Goff, even after last week's strong showing against the Cowboys. This is a tougher matchup as Goff has traditionally struggled away from home. Despite their myriad of injuries, the Eagles still managed to hold the Washington Football Team to just north of two yards per rush in last week's loss. If the Rams can't get their ground game going here, I expect Goff to have a long afternoon. Take Philadelphia (10*). | |||||||
09-19-20 | Miami-FL v. Louisville -2.5 | Top | 47-34 | Loss | -110 | 94 h 55 m | Show |
CFB ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on Louisville minus the points over Miami at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. Miami was fortunate to face a disjointed UAB squad in its season-opener last week, ultimately winning and covering the spread in the process. Here, the Canes will face a much tougher challenge as they hit the road to take on the Louisville Cardinals. The Cards got their season off to a resounding start with a 35-21 win over Western Kentucky. That game wasn't as close as the final score indicated as Louisville jumped ahead 28-7 before halftime and never looked back. While the Miami offense promises to be much better with QB D'Eriq King at the helm this season, it certainly didn't look completely in sync last week. I have Louisville pegged as one of the best teams in the entire nation in this unique 2020 college football campaign and will gladly back it as a short favorite here. Take Louisville (10*). | |||||||
09-19-20 | Stars v. Lightning OVER 5 | Top | 4-1 | Push | 0 | 36 h 53 m | Show |
NHL Stanley Cup Final Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Tampa Bay at 7:35 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams are coming off tight, low-scoring series' and as a result we're dealing with a relatively low posted total on Saturday. I believe we'll see this series get off to a high-scoring start, and it may not be long before 5.5's are back on the board. While I have a lot of respect for both goaltenders in this series, there's also no question that they've played a tremendous amount of hockey over the last seven weeks or so. At some point you have to feel that they're going to suffer a bit of a lapse, even if it's brief. Meanwhile, both squads are loaded with offensive talent. We've also seen both teams show a knack for coming up with clutch goals and performances from their star players. I'm confident the losing side gets at least two goals in this contest, setting us up well with a play on the 'over'. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-19-20 | Appalachian State -4 v. Marshall | 7-17 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Appalachian State minus the points over Marshall at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We'll back the Mountaineers as it's early and they remain undervalued in this unique 2020 college football season. Appalachian State actually has a good shot at reaching a New Year's Day Bowl game this year thanks to so many teams sitting on the sidelines. That's not a knock on the Mountaineers, as they're the real deal. Last week Appalachian State came up with a 35-20 win over Charlotte, completely manhandling the 49ers in the trenches. The Mountaineers running game appeared to be in midseason form which spells trouble for Marshall this week. I also liked what I saw from a new-look Appalachian State defense as it came up big on a number of occasions, including a pair of interceptions. Here, the Mountaineers face a much tougher challenge but I like they fact they'll be going up against a freshman quarterback. Keep in mind, Marshall turned in a near-flawless performance in its season debut two weeks ago. Unfortunately that means there's nowhere to go but down in this one. Look for the Thundering Herd to get a wake-up call. Take Appalachian State (10*). | |||||||
09-19-20 | UL-Lafayette v. Georgia State +17 | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 100 h 44 m | Show |
CFB Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Georgia State plus the points over UL-Lafayette at 12 noon et on Saturday. The Ragin' Cajuns of UL-Lafayette are coming off a big upset win over Iowa State last Saturday so it's not surprising that they're laying such a big number in their Sun Belt opener this week. I believe the number will prove too high. Georgia State is no pushover. The Panthers reached a Bowl game with a 7-6 overall record last season, making significant progress relatively early in their FBS career. Georgia State returns plenty of talent on both sides of the football - particularly when it comes to defense, where it will obviously need to be stout against an experienced and explosive Ragin' Cajuns offense. Meanwhile, the Panthers offense has a terrific stable of wide receivers to stretch the field against a beatable Lafayette defense. Look for Georgia State to stay within arm's reach all afternoon long. Take Georgia State (10*). | |||||||
09-19-20 | Tulsa v. Oklahoma State OVER 66 | 7-16 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Tulsa and Oklahoma State at 12 noon et on Saturday. We should see an old-fashioned shootout between the Golden Hurricane and Cowboys in this early start matchup on Saturday. Tulsa boasts a truly underrated offense entering the 2020 season with a loaded stable of running backs keyed by Shamari Brooks and Corey Taylor II not to mention an experienced senior quarterback in Zach Smith. He passed for over 3,200 yards and 19 touchdowns to go along with nine interceptions last season. He has his top target back in Keylon Stokes who hauled in 62 catches for over 1,000 yards and six touchdowns a year ago. Oklahoma State is obviously loaded on offense, led by RB Chuba Hubbard. QB Spencer Sanders was the Big 12 Offensive Freshman of the Year last season, although this will be his third year with the Cowboys. Expect fireworks on Saturday afternoon. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-19-20 | Boston College +6.5 v. Duke | 26-6 | Win | 100 | 18 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston College plus the points over Duke at 12 noon et on Saturday. The case can be made that Boston College is the better team in this matchup but I think the fact that Duke played in a national tv game last week on the road against Notre Dame, and hung relatively tough, plays into the line. The Eagles return a lot of experience on both sides of the football and will be eager to get on the field and face some actual competition here. I don't believe there's any intimidation factor at play with this edition of the Blue Devils. Look for the Eagles to hang tough for four quarters. Take Boston College (10*). | |||||||
09-17-20 | Bengals +6 v. Browns | 30-35 | Win | 100 | 35 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cincinnati plus the points over Cleveland at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. I can understand why the Browns are being favored by nearly a touchdown in this game - after all, this is a huge motivational spot for them coming off a beatdown at the hands of the Ravens (we won with Baltimore in that game) in the national spotlight against a division opponent they 'should' handle. I simply feel they're being asked to lay too many points in this spot as the Bengals showed me enough in a difficult matchup to support them for a second consecutive week. Give Bengals QB Joe Burrow a lot of credit for hanging in there against a very tough Chargers defense last Sunday. Highlights obviously included his touchdown run and his near game-tying (or winning) drive at the end of the fourth quarter. There was plenty to build off of following that performance and I'm confident we'll see him find more success against the Browns here. I also look for a big bounce-back performance from RB Joe Mixon who was relatively ineffective and even lost a fumble (his first since 2016). The Browns are a mess, and have been since the start of last season. While I do like their ground attack and feel they can have considerable success running the football against the Bengals non-existent run defense, I'm not sure QB Baker Mayfield has the composure to avoid a couple of costly mistakes that ultimately keeps this game within arm's reach for the Bengals. Take Cincinnati (10*). | |||||||
09-17-20 | Lightning -158 v. Islanders | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 23 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over New York at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Islanders (puck-line) in Game 5 of this series two nights ago but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Lightning here as they look to advance to the Stanley Cup Final. Even without Brayden Point in the lineup, the Bolts have still looked dangerous offensively over the last couple of games, firing 73 shots at Isles goaltender Semyon Varlamov. They didn't get much 'puck luck' in Game 5 but that doesn't tend to last long when it comes to elite teams. The real key here might be the play of Tampa Bay goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy. He hasn't been quite as dominant as we've been accustomed to seeing in this series but certainly played well enough to backstop the Bolts to a victory last time out and I'm confident he'll come up big in this potential series clincher. Take Tampa Bay (10*). | |||||||
09-17-20 | Heat v. Celtics -132 | 106-101 | Loss | -132 | 22 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston moneyline over Miami at 7 pm et on Thursday. The Miami Heat are on some kind of roll right now but Game 1 of this series could have certainly gone either way, and even with Kemba Walker still in a funk, the Celtics were in it. Here, I look for Boston to make the necessary adjustments and even up the series at a game apiece. The C's third quarter performance in Game 1 - in which they held Miami to just 16 points - has to carry some weight here. I do expect Boston to come in with plenty of confidence even after a disappointing overtime loss. This has all the makings of a long, hard-fought series and I'll back the Celtics on the moneyline here in Game 2. Take Boston moneyline (10*). | |||||||
09-16-20 | Rangers v. Astros OVER 9 | 1-0 | Loss | -114 | 23 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Texas and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Rangers entered last night's action ranked 29th in baseball in runs per game and team batting average but I think they can get to Lance McCullers Jr. in this contest. McCullers has battled injury once again and has struggled most of the way with his strikeouts per nine innings way down compared to his career average. He's also allowing one home run per nine innings for the first time in his career (his previous career-high was 0.8). Rangers starter Kyle Gibson has been a mess. His strikeouts are way down while his walks are up. He's also allowing two home runs per nine innings for the first time in his career. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-16-20 | A's v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | 3-1 | Loss | -125 | 18 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Oakland and Colorado at 3:10 pm et on Wednesday. I'll play the 'over' as the A's and Rockies wrap up their series at Coors Field on Wednesday. Mike Fiers has seen his strikeouts per nine innings drop while his walks have gone up compared to his 15-win campaign a year ago. Things obviously won't get any easier here in the thin air of Denver as the Rockies entered last night's action ranked T12th in the majors in runs per game and ninth in team batting average. Rockies starter German Marquez has struggled with command all season, with his walks per nine innings rising from 1.8 last year to 2.8 this year. His strikeouts per nine innings have dropped from 9.1 to 8.3. He's part of the reason why the Rockies rank T28th in runs allowed per game this season. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-15-20 | Nuggets v. Clippers -7.5 | 104-89 | Loss | -102 | 24 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Denver at 9 pm et on Tuesday. The Clippers clearly got caught looking ahead to a date with the rival Lakers at halftime of Game 6, ultimately blowing a 16-point lead en route to an eventual double-digit loss. L.A. really couldn't have played much worse. It only serves to make bouncing back that much easier on Tuesday as I'm confident the Clips motivation level will be sky-high and I expect their play to match it. Give Denver all the credit in the world, first battling its way through a tough series against the Jazz and now giving the favored Clips all they can handle in another seven-game series. We have, however, seen L.A.'s ability to reach another gear in this series and there's simply too much on the line as a franchise to lay another egg on Tuesday night. All of that has certainly been factored into the line, but I still look for the Clips to cover the number. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
09-15-20 | Islanders +1.5 v. Lightning | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 23 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York +1.5 goals over Tampa Bay at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. I don't expect the Islanders to go away quietly in this series. They were badly outplayed for much of Game 4 but should bounce back facing the prospect of elimination on Tuesday night. The Lightning most definitely have an eye on the Stanley Cup Final at this point, and rightfully so. While I do expect them to get there, I don't believe a victory in Game 5 is a foregone conclusion. Barry Trotz will have his Isles ready and I'll grab the insurance goal but wouldn't be shocked by an outright win. Take New York +1.5 goals (10*). | |||||||
09-15-20 | Cardinals v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | 3-18 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'under' at Miller Park on Tuesday night. Jack Flaherty takes the ball for the Cardinals. While his numbers are slightly off those he posted a year ago keep in mind we're dealing with a small sample size after he missed time due to injury in August. Also consider that he is also coming off a season in which he finished fourth in N.L. Cy Young voting and 13th in N.L. MVP voting. He led the N.L. in fewest hits allowed per nine innings last year and he's just slightly off that same pace this season (6.5 compared to 6.2). Brewers veteran starter Brett Anderson has held his own on the mound this season. He enjoyed a nice bounce-back season a year ago and has built on that success here in 2020. His strikeouts per nine innings are up while his walks are down. He has given up more hits and home runs per nine frames compared to a year ago but here he should benefit from facing a Cards club that entered last night's action ranked T21st in hits per game and 28th in home runs. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-14-20 | Titans -3 v. Broncos | 16-14 | Loss | -107 | 25 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tennessee minus the points over Denver at 10:10 pm et on Monday. This game has blowout potential with the Broncos ill-equipped to handle the Titans underrated offense or claw their way back into contention should they fall behind early. Of course, Denver suffered a major blow with the season-ending ankle injury to Von Miller last week. The Broncos were already going to be undermanned defensively before Miller went down due to a number of defections on that side of the football during the offseason. Expect RB Derrick Henry to have a field day against the Broncos once-vaunted 'D'. Offensively, the Broncos have a new coordinator, not to mention an inexperienced quarterback who will be making just his sixth career NFL start - and he'll be doing so potentially without his top target in WR Courtland Sutton. While I do like the upside of rookie WR's Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler, Hamler is dealing with an injury and Jeudy didn't exactly receive rave reviews during training camp. Maybe the Broncos will elect to go run-heavy but I suspect they'll only be banging their heads against the wall versus a stout Titans defense. Tennessee should be able to pin back its ears and get after QB Drew Lock all night long. Take Tennessee (10*). |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ricky Tran | $756 |
ProSportsPicks | $632 |
Joseph D'Amico | $510 |
Joey Tron | $450 |
Tom Macrina | $399 |
Nick Parsons | $344 |
Sean Murphy | $306 |
Jack Jones | $303 |
William Burns | $233 |
Dan Kaiser | $220 |