Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-17-22 | Phillies -162 v. Reds | 0-1 | Loss | -162 | 7 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over Cincinnati at 12:35 pm et on Wednesday. We’ll back the visiting Phillies in the finale of this three-game series in Cincinnati on Wednesday. Philadelphia will hand the ball to Ranger Suarez, who is coming off one of his best outings of the season as he held the Mets to just one earned run over seven innings in a 2-1 victory in New York last week. Suarez has lowered his FIP to 3.81 and his WHIP to 1.32 and is allowing just north of 4.1 runs per nine innings. Behind Suarez is a Phillies bullpen that has been among the best in baseball lately, entering last night’s action with a sparkling 0.56 ERA and 0.75 WHIP over the last seven games. Rookie Nick Lodolo will get another turn in the rotation for the Reds. He’s gone through plenty of growing pains here in 2022, posting a 4.42 FIP and 1.66 WHIP while yielding 5.1 runs per nine innings. Note that Lodolo allows 1.8 more hits, 0.5 more home runs and 1.2 more walks per nine innings compared to Suarez this season. The Reds bullpen has had a tough time all season, recording a collective 4.94 ERA and 1.43 WHIP with only eight saves converted and eight blown here at home, entering last night’s action. Take Philadelphia (8*). | |||||||
08-16-22 | Diamondbacks +1.5 v. Giants | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona +1.5 runs over San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Tuesday. This one falls just on the edge of our play range in terms of price. With that being said, a strong case can certainly be made for the D'Backs to be favored in this game and I think we're fortunate to have the opportunity to grab an insurance run (which we often like to have when backing Arizona - note that nine of its last 16 losses have come by a single run). Merill Kelly gets the start for the D'Backs on Tuesday. He's actually been one of the best starting pitchers in baseball for an extended stretch this season. Kelly sports a 3.16 FIP and 1.14 WHIP while allowing just 3.08 runs per nine innings. The Giants will give the ball to Jake Junis. It's been a mixed bag for him since returning from injury last month. Junis owns a 3.63 FIP and 1.20 WHIP while giving up just shy of 3.8 runs per nine innings this season. Note that he allows 1.0 more hit and 0.5 more home runs per nine innings compared to Kelly. Entering last night's action, the D'Backs bullpen had recorded a collective 3.20 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over the last seven games while the Giants 'pen continued to struggled, posting a 5.66 ERA and 1.84 WHIP over that same stretch. Take Arizona +1.5 runs (8*). | |||||||
08-16-22 | Astros v. White Sox UNDER 7 | 3-4 | Push | 0 | 12 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Houston and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. This is the best starting pitching matchup on Tuesday's board as the Astros send Justin Verlander to the hill against Dylan Cease of the White Sox. Verlander is having another incredible season, recording a 2.91 FIP and 0.86 WHIP while giving up only 2.38 runs per nine innings. He'll have a score to settle here after allowing seven runs, four of them earned, over just 3 2/3 innings in his lone previous start against the White Sox this season back in June. Knowing the competitor that he is and given he's logged a 1.58 ERA and 0.72 WHIP in 11 road outings this season, I'm expecting Verlander's best in this one. Dylan Cease is having a Cy Young Award-caliber year to be sure, checking in with a 2.75 FIP and 1.14 WHIP while yielding just 2.66 runs per nine innings. He's struggled against the Astros in the past but this will be his first shot at them this year and he has certainly been a different pitcher in 2022. Incredibly, you would have to go back 15 starts to find the last time Cease allowed more than a single earned run. The reason we're playing the first five innings only in this one should be obvious but it's worth noting that the two bullpens have struggled lately, with Houston's relief corps posting a 6.52 ERA and 1.91 WHIP over the last seven games and the White Sox 'pen recording a 5.40 ERA and 1.69 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the first five innings under (8*). | |||||||
08-16-22 | Astros -118 v. White Sox | 3-4 | Loss | -118 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston first five innings over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. We obviously don't want to make a habit of fading one of the hottest starting pitchers in baseball in Dylan Cease of the White Sox, but in this case I'll make an exception as we're backing one of the best to every do it in Justin Verlander and an Astros team coming off a 4-2 loss in the opener of this series last night. We'll do so in the first five innings only as Houston's bullpen has been a mess lately, posting a collective 6.52 ERA and 1.91 WHIP over the last seven games. Verlander has essentially had just two bad starts this season and one of them came against tonight's opponent, the White Sox back on June 18th. Needless to say he'll be eager to make amends here. Note that Verlander's other 'bad' outing this season came against the Mariners on May 27th. Since then, he's faced them three times and has generally made life miserable for them, allowing just three earned runs while striking out 26 in 21 1/2 innings (the Astros won all three games). Verlander checks in with a 2.91 FIP and 0.86 WHIP while allowing only 2.38 runs per nine innings this season. Cease has of course been lights out as well although he does give up 0.28 more runs and 2.2 more walks per nine innings compared to Verlander (I realize we're grasping at straws a bit when it comes to finding negatives in Cease's game). I'm confident the Astros can scratch together just enough offense against the White Sox right-hander early to hold the lead after five frames. Take Houston first five innings (8*). | |||||||
08-16-22 | A's +1.5 v. Rangers | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oakland +1.5 runs over Texas at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. With the bullpens virtually a wash in this matchup and the A's holding what I consider to be a significant starting pitching advantage, we'll back the visitors with an insurance run here. JP Sears was a key piece coming over to the A's from the Yankees in the Frankie Montas trade. He didn't disappoint in his A's debut last week, allowing just two earned runs over 5 1/3 innings of work against the Angels. In 27 1/3 big league innings pitched this season, Sears has posted a 2.93 FIP and 0.81 WHIP while allowing just 2.3 runs per nine innings. The Rangers will send Kohei Arihara to the mound for his first start of the season. He's struggled to the tune of a 4.88 ERA and 1.32 WHIP at the AAA level this season and that's after recording an ugly 6.76 FIP and 1.43 WHIP while yielding just shy of 6.9 runs per nine innings with the Rangers last season. Take Oakland +1.5 runs (8*). | |||||||
08-16-22 | Mets +1.5 v. Braves | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -154 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
N.L. East Game of the Year. My selection is on New York +1.5 runs over Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the Braves in the first five innings in the opener of this series last night but I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the Mets on the run-line on Tuesday. New York will hand the ball to Taijuan Walker, who will be out for revenge after giving up a whopping eight earned runs over just one inning against these same Braves two starts back. He bounced back nicely with a quality outing against the Reds last time out and I'm confident he can do a much better job against Atlanta this time around. Note that the last time he pitched here at Truist Park, he guided New York to a 3-1 victory last season. Walker enters this outing sporting a 3.61 FIP and 1.20 WHIP this season, yielding only 3.51 runs per nine innings. Entering last night's contest, the Mets bullpen hadn't allowed a single earned run over its last seven games, posting a 0.92 WHIP over that stretch. New York's relief corps owns a collective 3.72 ERA and 1.22 WHIP while converting 16 saves and blowing only six on the road this season (also entering last night's action). Charlie Morton will counter for Atlanta. He checks in with a 4.14 FIP and 1.21 WHIP, allowing 4.4 runs per nine innings this season. The Mets will be getting their third look at Morton this season having already plated nine earned runs in 10 2/3 innings in their previous two games against him. Atlanta's bullpen has been terrific lately but has blown 11 saves (while converting 18) at home this season. Also note that the Braves relief corps has been a little more overworked than the Mets' lately, logging 27 1/3 innings over the last seven games, while New York's 'pen has been pressed into duty for less than 20 innings over the same stretch (entering this series). Take New York +1.5 runs (10*). | |||||||
08-16-22 | Tigers v. Guardians OVER 8 | 4-3 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Detroit and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. We missed with the 'over' in this same matchup (with the same two starting pitchers) last week in Detroit but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Rookie Garrett Hill got off to a fine start for the Tigers this season but has struggled lately with his FIP rising to 5.82 and his WHIP to 1.36. He checks in allowing 5.15 runs per nine innings and was fortunate to get himself out of trouble on numerous occasions over five innings of work against these same Guardians last time out. Interestingly, this will be Cleveland's third look at Hill this season (he's made only seven starts in total). The Guardians will counter with Zach Plesac. He sports a 4.27 FIP and 1.32 WHIP on the season and actually allows 0.9 more hits per nine innings compared to Hill. Opponents have reached Plesac for 4.94 runs per nine innings. The Tigers will be seeing Plesac for the fourth time this season. Their best effort against him came in his lone outing against them here in Cleveland back in July as he gave up five runs, two of them earned, over just 3 2/3 innings of work. We'll play the first five innings only in this one as we look to avoid a Guardians bullpen that is in excellent form having posted a collective 2.12 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over the last seven games (entering yesterday's action). For its part, the Detroit 'pen has recorded a solid 3.05 ERA and 1.20 WHIP on the road this season, also entering yesterday's double-header. Take the first five innings over (8*). | |||||||
08-16-22 | Cubs -155 v. Nationals | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. We've seen this price come down a bit since opening, likely due to some hesitancy from bettors with the Cubs having blown leads in losing their last two games. I'm confident they'll bounce back here, however. Justin Steele will get the start for Chicago. He pitched well in his most recent outing against these same Nationals last week, allowing two earned runs over six innings in an eventual 4-2 victory. Steele owns a solid 3.28 FIP and 1.41 WHIP while allowing 4.51 runs per nine innings this season. That last number is somewhat concerning but it looks Cy Young-like compared to that of his opponent tonight, Patrick Corbin. Corbin continues to be sent out every five days out of necessity only. He sports a 4.96 FIP and 1.82 WHIP while yielding a whopping 7.91 runs per nine innings this season. We're not talking about a small sample size either as he's logged 110 1/3 innings. Behind Corbin is a Nationals bullpen that held up alright last night but still owns a collective 4.87 ERA and 1.92 WHIP over the last seven games. For its part, the Cubs 'pen has posted a 3.45 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Chicago (8*). | |||||||
08-15-22 | Mariners v. Angels UNDER 6.5 | 6-2 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Monday. The 'over' has cashed just once in the Angels last six games. After missing with the 'over' in their series finale against the Twins yesterday (a 4-2 Los Angeles victory) we'll go the other way and back the 'under' on Monday against Seattle. Newly-acquired Luis Castillo has been outstanding in two starts since joining the Mariners, allowing only three earned runs in 14 2/3 innings - even more impressive given those two starts came against the Yankees. For the season, Castillo owns a 3.17 FIP and 1.04 WHIP while allowing only 2.98 runs per nine innings. Behind Castillo is a Mariners bullpen that entered yesterday's contest sporting a collective 1.61 ERA and 0.82 WHIP over the last seven games, having converted 17 saves while blowing only five on the road this season. Shohei Ohtani will counter for the Angels on Monday. He's been even better than Castillo, posting a 2.45 FIP and 1.05 WHIP on the season. Opponents have reached Ohtani for just 2.84 runs per nine innings. Like the Mariners 'pen, the Angels relief corps has been outstanding lately, recording a collective 2.01 ERA and 0.92 WHIP over the last seven games (entering yesterday's action). After giving up two runs in the first inning yesterday, Los Angeles tossed up eight consecutive shutout innings. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
08-15-22 | Dodgers v. Brewers UNDER 8 | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Monday. | |||||||
08-15-22 | Dodgers -165 v. Brewers | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The Dodgers saw their long winning streak come to an end with a 3-0 blanking in Kansas City yesterday (we won with the first five innings 'under'). I look for them to get right back on track with a red hot Julio Urias taking the ball on Monday. You would have to go back 11 starts to find the last time the Dodgers dropped a game with Urias starting. They're also 5-1 in his six career outings against the Brewers. Milwaukee checks in just 17-18, averaging 3.7 runs per game against left-handed starting pitching this season. Of course, Urias has been terrific again this year, posting a 3.49 FIP and 0.97 WHIP. While his counterpart on Monday, Freddy Peralta of the Brewers, does own a superior FIP (2.40), he has given up 0.4 more hits, 1.1 more walks and 1.36 more runs per nine innings compared to Urias. Home runs allowed have been the issue for Urias this season but he hasn't allowed a single long ball over his last four starts. The Dodgers bullpen behind Urias has been rock solid away from home this season, recording a collective 2.70 ERA and 1.06 WHIP while converting 12 saves and blowing only two (entering yesterday's action). Take Los Angeles (8*). | |||||||
08-15-22 | Mets v. Braves -138 | 1-13 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta first five innings over New York at 7:20 pm et on Monday. I'll back the Braves in the first five innings in Monday's divisional showdown against the Mets, doing so as they have no considerable advantage with their bullpen in the later innings. I do think Atlanta has a significant edge early with standout rookie Spencer Strider taking the ball against veteran Carlos Carrasco of New York. Strider has posted a 1.97 FIP and 1.05 WHIP this season, yielding just north of 3.3 runs per nine innings. He'll certainly be up for this start after he turned in one of his worst outings of the season against these same Mets last time out. That start came on the road. Here at home, Strider has been lights out, posting a 2.20 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in six starts this season. Carrasco owns a 3.42 FIP and 1.28 WHIP on the campaign. Note that he has allowed 3.2 more hits and 0.4 more home runs per nine innings compared to Strider this season. The last time the Braves faced Carrasco here at home they reached him for five earned runs over five innings last October. Take Atlanta first five innings (8*). | |||||||
08-15-22 | Orioles v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
A.L. East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Baltimore and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are coming off a lopsided defeats on Sunday. I look for both offenses to respond with favorable results on Monday, leading to a high-scoring affair in Toronto. While the Orioles stable of young arms has performed well this season, tonight's starter, Kyle Bradish, has struggled. He checks in sporting a 5.16 FIP and 1.62 WHIP while allowing just shy of 6.6 runs per nine innings. We're not talking about a small sample size either as he has logged more than 60 big league innings this season. To make matters worse, the Blue Jays will be seeing him for the third time this season and the second time in less than a week. They've fared well against him, scoring eight earned runs on 14 hits over 10 1/3 innings previously. While the O's bullpen has been solid for much of the season, it took a hit due to pre-trade deadline dealing and entered yesterday's action with a 4.32 ERA and 1.20 WHIP over the last seven games. The Yusei Kikuchi experiment hasn't worked out in Toronto this season. He's struggled since joining the club from Seattle, recording a 5.87 FIP and 1.49 WHIP here in 2022. Opponents have reached the left-hander for north of 5.8 runs per nine innings. Note that the O's have been slightly better offensively against left-handed starters this season, averaging 4.4 runs per game compared to their season scoring average of 4.3 rpg. They've tagged Kikuchi for nine earned runs in nine innings in two previous looks at him this season. Meanwhile, the Jays 'pen has been overworked, entering yesterday's contest having logged 28 innings over the last seven games, sporting a collective 3.54 ERA and 1.43 WHIP over that stretch. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
08-15-22 | Cubs -134 v. Nationals | 4-5 | Loss | -134 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Monday. We missed with the Cubs yesterday as they couldn't complete the four-game sweep of the Reds but I won't hesitate to go right back to the well with them on Monday as they hand the ball to Marcus Stroman, who finds himself in a quick 'revenge' spot against the Nationals. Stroman's last start didn't go particularly well and it came against these same Nationals last week. He allowed four earned runs over five innings in that 6-5 loss. He's still having a fine season, having recorded a 3.98 FIP and 1.16 WHIP. His 4.54 runs per nine innings allowed does leave a lot to be desired but I'm confident he can navigate a Nationals lineup that has averaged just 3.8 runs per game this season (better than he did last time out anyway). Interestingly, Stroman has been much sharper away from home this season, posting a 2.26 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in nine outings. Josiah Gray will counter for Washington. He sports a 5.60 FIP and 1.30 WHIP while yielding just shy of 4.9 runs per nine innings this season. Like Stroman, he has struggled pitching at home, posting a 6.75 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in 10 starts at Nationals Park. The Washington bullpen behind Gray has been awful lately, and for much of the campaign. The Nats relief corps entered yesterday's contest with a 5.83 ERA and 1.88 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take Chicago (8*). | |||||||
08-15-22 | Phillies -170 v. Reds | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Monday. This one sets up nicely as a bounce-back spot for the Phillies off consecutive losses against the Mets over the weekend. We've been betting against Reds starter Mike Minor all season long and we won't hesitate to do so again here. Minor has had a disastrous campaign as he nears the likely end of his big league career. He checks in with a 6.75 FIP and 1.57 WHIP, allowing north of 6.8 runs per nine innings. Note that the Phillies have wore out left-handed starters this season, averaging 4.9 runs per game (compared to their season scoring average of 4.7 rpg). Behind Minor is a Reds bullpen that entered yesterday's action sporting a collective 5.15 ERA and 1.43 WHIP at home this season, converting only seven saves while blowing eight. Noah Syndergaard will take the ball for the visiting Phillies. He's made two starts since joining the club prior to the trade deadline and both resulted in team victories. That's despite the fact that he didn't really have his best stuff in either outing. For the season, Syndergaard has posted a 3.79 FIP and 1.28 WHIP while allowing 4.15 runs per nine innings - obviously vastly superior numbers to those of Minor. The Phillies bullpen has been lights out lately, recording a collective 1.45 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over the last seven games (entering yesterday's action). Take Philadelphia (9*). | |||||||
08-15-22 | Padres v. Marlins UNDER 6.5 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between San Diego and Miami at 6:40 pm et on Monday. This is one of the best starting pitching matchups on Monday's board as the Padres send Joe Musgrove to the hill against Sandy Alcantara of the Marlins. We'll look to avoid the inconsistent bullpens here and back the first five innings 'under' only. Musgrove labored through a four-start stretch before settling down to allow just one earned run over seven innings against the Giants last time out. On the season, he owns a 3.35 FIP and 1.02 WHIP while allowing only 3.19 runs per nine innings. In Musgrove's lone previous outing against the Marlins this season he gave up just two earned runs on five hits while striking out eight and walking just one over seven frames back in early May. There's Sandy Alcantara and then there's everyone else when it comes to the Marlins pitching staff this year. He's been terrific, recording a 2.85 FIP and 0.95 WHIP while yielding just 2.39 runs per nine innings. With that being said, he'll be looking to avenge one of his worst starts of the season which came against the Padres in May. In that outing he allowed two earned runs on five hits and lasted just 4 2/3 innings. That game still totalled just five runs. The last time we saw Alcantara pitch here at home he tossed a complete game shutout against the Reds on August 3rd. Take the first five innings under (8*). | |||||||
08-14-22 | Twins v. Angels OVER 8.5 | 2-4 | Loss | -125 | 17 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. While this series has gotten off to a low-scoring start I look for Sunday's series finale to provide plenty of offensive fireworks. Chris Archer gets the start for the Twins. He checks in with a 4.58 FIP and 1.29 WHIP this season, yielding just shy of 4.5 runs per nine innings. Heading into last night's game, the Twins bullpen was in awful form, posting a collective 5.93 ERA and 1.65 WHIP over the last seven contests. On the season, Minnesota's relief corps has converted only eight saves while also blowing eight. Tucker Davidson will take the ball for the hometown Angels. He's struggled in limited work this season, recording a 5.60 FIP and 2.02 WHIP while giving up north of 7.9 runs per nine innings (small sample size of 19 1/3 innings, I know). Of course, the Los Angeles bullpen is rarely all that reliable, checking in with a collective 4.15 ERA and 1.28 WHIP at home this season, converting 15 saves and blowing eight. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
08-14-22 | A's v. Astros UNDER 8 | 3-6 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Oakland and Houston at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring start to this A.L. West matchup on Sunday afternoon. Cole Irvin will take the ball for the visiting A's. He's quietly turned his season around, lowering his FIP to 3.84 and his WHIP to 1.03 while giving up just 3.21 runs per nine innings. We're not interested in supporting the A's bullpen here, however, as they've struggled mightily to keep runs off the board lately (5.53 ERA and 1.34 WHIP L7 games entering last night's action). We'll look to avoid that relief corps by playing the first five innings only. Cristian Javier will counter for Houston. While his command hasn't always been there this season, he's still managed to record a solid 3.43 FIP and 1.05 WHIP, yielding just 3.14 runs per nine innings. In his lone career home start against the A's, Javier tossed five shutout innings in April 2021. Take the first five innings under (8*). | |||||||
08-14-22 | Dodgers v. Royals UNDER 9 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 16 h 38 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Los Angeles and Kansas City at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. We've won with the Dodgers on the run-line in each of the last two nights but I won't hesitate to go a different direction and back the first five innings 'under' as this interleague series wraps up on Sunday. Tyler Anderson will take the ball for the visiting Dodgers. He probably doesn't get the attention he deserves in a loaded Dodgers starting rotation. Anderson checks in with a 3.33 FIP and 1.00 WHIP while allowing only 2.87 runs per nine innings this season. His counterpart on Sunday will be Brady Singer. While he pitches for a bad team, he's held up well, recording a 3.66 FIP and 1.15 WHIP this season. Singer is giving up just shy of 3.7 runs per nine innings. We'll play the first five innings only in this one as we want no part of a Royals bullpen that entered last night's contest sporting a 7.17 ERA and 1.31 WHIP over the last seven games and a 4.80 ERA and 1.53 WHIP at home this season. Take the first five innings under (10*). | |||||||
08-14-22 | Cubs -130 v. Reds | 5-8 | Loss | -130 | 15 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Cincinnati at 1:40 pm et on Sunday. The series sweep is set up on a tee for the Cubs on Sunday as they hand the ball to Keegan Thompson against Justin Dunn of the Reds. Thompson is quietly having a fine campaign for the Cubs, recording a 4.04 FIP and 1.24 WHIP while allowing 3.91 runs per nine innings. Behind Thompson is a Chicago bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a collective 2.66 ERA and 1.01 WHIP over the last seven games. That relief corps hasn't been overworked either, logging just 23 2/3 innings over those previous seven contests. If you've followed my plays regularly over the last year-plus you know that we like to go against Reds starter (and former Mariner) Justin Dunn. He's only worked 4 2/3 innings at the big league level this season, posting a 6.98 FIP and 1.50 WHIP. Note that he struggled at the minor league level before getting the call-up, recording a 6.75 ERA and 1.82 WHIP in 28 innings of work. The Reds bullpen has been awful at home this season, entering last night's contest with a 5.09 ERA and 1.43 WHIP, converting only seven saves while blowing eight. Take Chicago (8*). | |||||||
08-14-22 | Orioles v. Rays -152 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay first five innings over Baltimore at 1:40 pm et on Sunday. With no real advantage with the Rays bullpen over the Orioles' in the later innings in this one, we'll back Tampa Bay in the first five frames only as it sends Drew Rasmussen to the hill against Jordan Lyles of the O's. Lyles has been one of the weak links in an otherwise solid Baltimore starting rotation this season. He checks in with a 4.43 FIP and 1.44 WHIP, allowing 4.7 runs per nine innings. The Rays will be seeing him for the fourth time this season having already reached him for 11 earned runs in 13 1/3 innings. Rasmussen is an undervalued commodity in the Rays rotation. He sports a 3.54 FIP and 1.17 WHIP while holding the opposition to only 3.45 runs per nine innings. The Rays are a perfect 3-0 in his three previous starts against Baltimore as the right-hander has posted a 2.84 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in those three contests. Take Tampa Bay first five innings (8*). | |||||||
08-13-22 | Saskatchewan v. Edmonton Elks +5.5 | Top | 34-23 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
CFL West Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Edmonton plus the points over Saskatchewan at 10 pm et on Saturday. This will be a rematch of a Week 1 clash between these two teams that saw Saskatchewan prevail by a 26-16 score. The Elks certainly weren't without their opportunities in that game as they were afforded 36 pass attempts in the loss. That's been a common theme for the Riders as they've struggled mightily to contain opposing passing games, yielding 33, 37, 38 and 33 pass attempts over their last four games with those four opponents completing 21, 26, 30 and 20 passes. Meanwhile, the Riders offense has seemingly gotten worse with each passing week, going from 24 to 21 to 17 points over their last three games. While on paper, the Elks defense should offer a reprieve, I'm not convinced it will play out that way on the field. It's worth noting that Edmonton is as healthy as any team in the league right now. The Elks are just one game removed from holding Winnipeg to just 274 total yards (including 7-of-16 passing). They'll be out for revenge here and it's worth noting that prior to that first meeting between the teams this season, last year's two matchups were settled by just two and five points. Take Edmonton (10*). | |||||||
08-13-22 | Rams v. Chargers UNDER 32 | Top | 29-22 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
NFLX Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between the Rams and Chargers at 10 pm et on Saturday. Neither of these teams are expected to play their starters in this game - no real surprise after both head coaches elected to aim for a very 'uneventful' preseason slate a year ago. The Rams saw their three preseason games in 2021 total just 29, 33 and 19 points. As for the Chargers, their three preseason tilts last year reached only 27, 25 and 19 total points. The latter game for each team came against one another as the Chargers prevailed by a 13-6 score. While both teams are obviously set at the quarterback position once the games count for real with Matt Stafford and Justin Herbert, it gets a little uglier down the depth chart. The Rams boast the likes of John Wolford, Bryce Perkins and Devlin 'Duck' Hodges while the Chargers have Chase Daniel (admittedly a preseason household name but not likely to see a lot of action here), Easton Stick and Brandon Peters. There's not a ton of wiggle room in either team's wide receiver depth charts so no real need to put on an air show to evaluate talent at that position. It was a similar story for both squads during last year's preseason schedule. The Chargers in particular will be looking to evaluate their talent at running back in this one with Isaiah Spiller entrenched in a depth chart battle with Josh Kelley and Larry Rountree. I'm anticipating both teams focusing on effectively 'shortening' this game with a heavy dose of their respective ground attacks here. We're dealing with a relatively low total, especially when you considering the high-scoring start the preseason has gotten off to across the board, but I believe the number is warranted. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
08-13-22 | Twins v. Angels +1.5 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles +1.5 runs over Minnesota at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. The Twins snapped a three-game skid, taking the opener of this series with relative ease last night. I look for the Angels to give them all they can handle on Saturday, however. Dylan Bundy will take the ball for Minnesota. He's struggled lately and let's face it, he's struggled for the majority of his big league career. Bundy checks in with a 4.30 FIP and 1.30 WHIP this season, allowing just north of 5.2 runs per nine innings. Also note that the Twins bullpen entered this series sporting a collective 5.72 ERA and 1.59 WHIP over the last seven games, having converted just eight saves while also blowing eight on the road this season. Reid Detmers will counter for Los Angeles. He owns a 4.24 FIP and 1.05 WHIP while holding the opposition to only 3.54 runs per nine innings this season. Note that the Twins are just 17-15 against left-handed starting pitching this season, averaging 4.2 runs per game (compared to their 4.5 runs per game season scoring average). The Angels bullpen entered last night's action having posted a collective 2.42 ERA and 0.85 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take Los Angeles +1.5 runs (8*). | |||||||
08-13-22 | Mariners v. Rangers OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 21 h 16 m | Show |
A.L. West Total of the Year. My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Seattle and Texas at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. With both bullpens entering this series in solid current form, we'll look to play 'over' the first five innings only in this one as the starting pitching matchup should favor the hitters. Marco Gonzales will get the start for the visiting Mariners. He checks in with a 5.12 FIP and 1.39 WHIP this season, allowing just north of 4.7 runs per nine innings. The division-rival Rangers have already seen him four times this season and have had considerable success at the dish against him, plating 12 earned runs in 24 2/3 innings. Dane Dunning will counter for Texas. He owns a 4.15 FIP and 1.36 WHIP this season, yielding just shy of 4.3 runs per nine innings. Like the Rangers against Gonzales, the Mariners have seen plenty of Dunning this season. This will be their fourth game against the right-hander, having previously scored seven earned runs off of him in 16 innings. As I mentioned, both bullpens entering this series pitching well (SEA - 2.19 ERA/0.61 WHIP L7 games, TEX - 1.71 ERA/0.95 WHIP L7 games) so we'll only call for a high-scoring start to Saturday's contest. Take the first five innings over (10*). | |||||||
08-13-22 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Royals | Top | 13-3 | Win | 100 | 21 h 18 m | Show |
My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Kansas City at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. I'm anticipating a lopsided result in favor of the Dodgers on Saturday in Kansas City as they send Andrew Heaney to the hill against Brad Keller of the Royals. Heaney has been solid since returning from injury, posting a 2.34 FIP and 1.00 WHIP while holding the opposition to just 2.25 runs per nine innings this season. Behind Heaney is an elite Dodgers bullpen that brought terrific form into this series having recorded a collective 1.80 ERA and 0.72 WHIP over the last seven games. Brad Keller has endured another trying season for the Royals, recording a 4.35 FIP and 1.37 WHIP while giving up 4.9 runs per nine innings. Note that the Dodgers are 53-21 and average 5.4 runs per game against right-handed starting pitching this season. The Kansas City bullpen has struggled for much of the season and entered last night's action sporting a collective 4.57 ERA and 1.29 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (10*). | |||||||
08-13-22 | Phillies v. Mets -184 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. The Phillies took the opener of this series last night but I look for the Mets to answer back with their ace Jacob deGrom on the hill on Saturday. Aaron Nola will take the ball for the Phillies. He's having a terrific season in his own right but he's not on the same level as deGrom. Philadelphia has won just five of his 11 road starts this season. The Phillies bullpen, while solid lately, has posted a collective 4.21 ERA and 1.42 WHIP on the road this season (entering last night's action). deGrom has made a triumphant return to the Mets rotation, posting a 1.25 FIP and 0.47 WHIP in 10 2/3 innings of work. You would have to go back nine deGrom home starts to find the last time the Mets lost a game with him on the mound here at Citi Field. Included in that stretch was a victory over these same Phillies last June. While the Mets bullpen ultimately allowed the winning run in extra innings last night, it did enter that contest with a collective 3.62 ERA and 1.22 WHIP at home this season. Take New York (8*). | |||||||
08-13-22 | Tigers +1.5 v. White Sox | 4-6 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit +0.5 runs first five innings over Chicago at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. We'll grab the half-run of insurance with the Tigers in the first five innings on Saturday as I do feel they have an advantage in terms of the starting pitching matchup. Matt Manning will get the start for Detroit. He's logged only 20 innings so far this season but has made the most of them, recording a 4.27 FIP and 1.10 WHIP while allowing only 2.25 runs per nine innings. Last time out he tossed seven shutout innings against the Rays but the Tigers bullpen couldn't hold up in an eventual loss. That's been the story a lot lately as the Detroit 'pen has been downright awful and we'll look to avoid that relief corps by playing the first five innings only here. Lucas Giolito has been high on our fade list all season long and we won't reverse course here. Giolito checks in with a 4.28 FIP and 1.51 WHIP, allowing 5.25 runs per nine innings. The Tigers have already seen him twice this season, winning both of those games. They most recently plated five earned runs over 6 2/3 innings against Giolito right here in Chicago back on July 8th. Take Detroit +0.5 runs first five innings (8*). | |||||||
08-12-22 | Pirates v. Giants -1.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 24 h 55 m | Show |
N.L. Non-Division Game of the Week. My selection is on San Francisco -0.5 runs first five innings over Pittsburgh at 10:15 pm et on Friday. As we still don’t trust the Giants bullpen, we’ll back them in the first five innings only on Friday as they have a considerable starting pitching edge with All-Star Carlos Rodon taking the hill against Bryse Wilson of the Pirates. Rodon enters Friday’s start sporting a terrific 2.28 FIP and 1.07 WHIP while allowing only 3.02 runs per nine innings this season. He absolutely baffled the Pirates in a start against them earlier this season, tossing eight shutout innings of two-hit ball. Bryse Wilson is one of the weakest links in the Pirates rotation and that’s saying something. He has recorded a 5.06 FIP and 1.52 WHIP this season, yielding a whopping 6.82 runs per nine innings. There’s no real advantage for the Giants in the later innings of this one as their bullpen continues to under-achieve, having posted a collective 4.62 ERA and 1.42 WHIP over the last seven games, not to mention converting only 10 saves at home this season (four blown). Take San Francisco -0.5 runs first five innings (10*). | |||||||
08-12-22 | A's v. Astros -1.5 | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 22 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston -1.5 runs over Oakland at 8:10 pm et on Friday. There’s quite simply no comparison between these two teams which lie at opposite ends of the A.L. West spectrum this season. The A’s will hand the ball to struggling rookie Adam Oller on Friday. He checks in with a 7.15 FIP and 1.79 WHIP while allowing just north of 8.2 runs per nine innings. His counterpart on Friday will be Luis Garcia of the Astros. While not an elite starter by any stretch, he’s been more than serviceable in the Astros starting rotation, posting a 4.03 FIP and 1.10 WHIP while allowing 4.33 runs per nine innings this season. Houston’s bullpen has been lights out at home all season, recording a collective 2.01 ERA and 0.94 WHIP while converting 15 saves and blowing only five (entering yesterday’s action). Take Houston -1.5 runs (8*). | |||||||
08-12-22 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Royals | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 22 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Friday. While the Royals are coming off a stunning series sweep of the division rival White Sox, I expect Friday’s result to be much more straightforward as they host the Dodgers. Los Angeles will send All-Star Tony Gonsolin to the mound for the series opener. He checks in with a 3.47 FIP and 0.89 WHIP this season, yielding only 2.38 runs per nine innings. Behind Gonsolin is a Dodgers bullpen that has posted a collective 1.80 ERA and 0.72 WHIP over the last seven games. The Royals will hand the ball to left-hander Daniel Lynch. He owns a 4.08 FIP and 1.52 WHIP while giving up just over 5.0 runs per nine innings on the campaign. The Kansas City bullpen did its best to cough up yesterday’s game against the White Sox but ultimately held on to finish the series sweep. Note that the Royals ‘pen owned a 4.50 ERA and 1.50 WHIP at home this season, entering yesterday’s contest. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (8*). | |||||||
08-12-22 | Phillies v. Mets -185 | 2-1 | Loss | -185 | 21 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York first five innings over Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Friday. We’ll back the Mets in the first five innings only on Friday as they have a considerable starting pitching edge with Max Scherzer taking the ball against Ranger Suarez of the Phillies. Scherzer is obviously enjoying another Cy Young Award-worthy season having recorded a 2.45 FIP and 0.90 WHIP while giving up only 2.16 runs per nine innings. Note that Scherzer will be looking for revenge after giving up three earned runs on 10 hits over six innings the last time he faced the Phillies back on May 8th. Ranger Suarez is having a fine season but his numbers certainly don’t compare to those of Scherzer. He has allowed 2.5 more hits and 1.7 more walks per nine innings compared to Scherzer this season. He’s also giving up nearly twice the runs at 4.31 per nine innings. The reason we’re playing the first five innings only here is that the Phillies bullpen has actually been better than the Mets’ over the last seven games, entering yesterday’s action sporting a collective 2.30 ERA and 1.21 WHIP over that stretch. Take New York first five innings (8*). | |||||||
08-12-22 | Padres -1.5 v. Nationals | 10-5 | Win | 100 | 21 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego -1.5 runs over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Friday. This one sets up exceptionally well for the Padres as they head to Washington to face the lowly Nationals on Friday. Mike Clevinger will take the ball for San Diego. He’s having a fine season having posted a 3.98 FIP and 1.12 WHIP while allowing just 3.74 runs per nine innings. Behind Clevinger is a Padres bullpen that has recorded a collective 3.52 ERA and 1.39 WHIP over the last seven games. Cory Abbott was awful in limited work for the Cubs last season and has been equally bad in 12 2/3 innings with the Nationals this year. Abbott checks in with an 8.88 FIP and 1.50 WHIP while allowing 5.68 runs per nine innings. The Nationals bullpen has struggled for much of the campaign and has certainly had a tough time lately, posting a collective 6.29 ERA and 1.64 WHIP over its last seven contests. Take San Diego -1.5 runs (8*). | |||||||
08-11-22 | Montreal v. Winnipeg UNDER 48.5 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
CFL Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Montreal and Winnipeg at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. When these two teams met last week in Montreal, they combined to score 55 points in a 15-point Blue Bombers victory. Winnipeg has now scored 35 points in consecutive games but doesn't necessarily have the look of such an explosive offensive squad under the guidance of QB Zach Collaros. It has been the Bombers ground game that has exploded over the last two weeks but after running for their two highest yardage totals of the season, I look for a step back in that department here. We can't continue to project 150+ rushing yards when the Bombers are actually only running the ball around 20 times per game. Meanwhile, Winnipeg completed just 15-of-26 passes against the Alouettes last week and turned the football over four times. They'll be looking to clean things up here and I see this as more of a 'win and move on' type of contest for the Bombers. Montreal has tried to sling it all over the field over the last two games but it hasn't worked as it completed just 45-of-74 passes for 491 yards in those two contests, scoring a grand total of 37 points. Things obviously won't get any easier as the scene shifts to Winnipeg against the Bombers elite defense. Note that the 'under' is 19-4 with the Bombers playing at home off three consecutive ATS victories, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of just 44.3 points. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
08-11-22 | Pirates v. Diamondbacks -174 | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona first five innings over Pittsburgh at 3:40 pm et on Thursday. The fact that we're still able to back Merrill Kelly at a sub -200 price against an opponent like the Pirates tells me he's still being undervalued. Here, rather than support the D'Backs for the full game, we'll get behind them in the first five innings only as there's no real advantage with their bullpen in the later innings. JT Brubaker will get the call for the visiting Pirates. He owns a 3.77 FIP and 1.52 WHIP while allowing 5.23 runs per nine innings this season. Note that Arizona will be seeing him for the second time this season after tagging him for five earned runs in four innings back in early June. Brubaker has allowed 2.6 more hits, 0.4 more home runs and 1.0 more walks per nine innings in comparison with Kelly. The D'Backs emerging ace has recorded a 3.18 FIP and 1.13 WHIP while yielding only 2.99 runs per nine innings on the campaign. He's faced the Buccos twice in his career, allowing four earned runs over 12 innings of work. Take Arizona first five innings (8*). | |||||||
08-11-22 | White Sox -170 v. Royals | 3-5 | Loss | -170 | 6 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Kansas City at 2:10 pm et on Thursday. We missed with the White Sox last night as they squandered a 3-1 lead in an eventual 8-3 loss. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with them again on Thursday, however, as they send their ace Dylan Cease to the hill. Cease is obviously having a career year, having posted a 2.70 FIP and 1.16 WHIP while allowing only 2.71 runs per nine innings. While the White Sox bullpen coughed up the game last night, it still owns a solid 3.00 ERA and 1.15 WHIP on the road this season, converting 18 saves and blowing only seven. Veteran Zack Greinke will counter for the Royals. He continues to get knocked around having recorded a 4.42 FIP and 1.33 WHIP while giving up just shy of 4.9 runs per nine innings on the campaign. The Royals bullpen behind him owns a collective 4.50 ERA and 1.50 WHIP at home this season. Take Chicago (8*). | |||||||
08-11-22 | Guardians v. Tigers OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
A.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Detroit at 1:10 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams have been trending to the 'under' lately but I look for a different story to unfold in Thursday afternoon's series finale in Detroit. Zach Plesac will take the ball for the Guardians. He owns a 4.31 FIP and 1.35 WHIP while allowing 5.15 runs per nine innings. The Tigers will be seeing Plesac for the third time this season after knocking him around for four earned runs on 12 hits over just 9 2/3 innings in their first two looks. Rookie Garrett Hill will counter for Detroit. He checks in with a 5.51 FIP and 1.39 WHIP while giving up 5.12 runs per nine frames. The Guardians have already seen Hill once and while they didn't fare all that well in that contest (just one earned run on two hits over six innings), I look for improvement here. The Guardians bullpen has been fine lately but the Tigers relief corps has been awful, posting a collective 7.66 ERA and 1.88 WHIP over the last seven games. It's not as if Cleveland's 'pen has been untouchable on the road as it has recorded a 3.50 ERA and 1.18 WHIP on the season. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
08-10-22 | Cardinals -145 v. Rockies | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis over Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday. We were concerned about a potential letdown from the Cardinals last night but backed them anyway and paid the price as they had their doors blown off by the Rockies. With that being said, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the visiting Cards again here. Jose Quintana will take the ball for St. Louis. He's enjoyed a terrific bounce-back season, posting a 3.27 FIP and 1.23 WHIP while allowing 3.63 runs per nine innings. Behind Quintana is a Cards bullpen that despite last night's poor performance still owns a 3.33 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over the last seven games. Kyle Freeland will counter for Colorado. He checks in with a 4.23 FIP and 1.36 WHIP this season, yielding just over 4.9 runs per nine innings. The Rockies bullpen behind him has struggled mightily of late, posting a 7.03 ERA and 1.85 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take St. Louis (8*). | |||||||
08-10-22 | Rangers v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -135 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
A.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on Houston -1.5 runs over Texas at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Astros added to the Rangers misery with a 7-5 victory last night and I anticipate more of the same on Wednesday. Texas will hand the ball to Glenn Otto. To say he's struggled this season would be an understatement. Otto checks in with a 5.19 FIP and 1.41 WHIP while allowing north of 5.5 runs per nine innings. He's given up 2.1 more hits, 0.5 more home runs and 2.9 more walks per nine innings compared to his counterpart on this night, Astros ace Justin Verlander. Verlander is having another terrific campaign, having posted a 2.98 FIP and 0.85 WHIP while holding the opposition to just shy of 2.3 runs per nine innings. He's an A.L. Cy Young Award candidate once again to be sure. Behind Verlander is an Astros bullpen that has been lights out lately and for much of the season, particularly at home. Over the last seven games, the Astros 'pen has recorded a collective 0.48 ERA and 0.75 WHIP. Take Houston -1.5 runs (10*). | |||||||
08-10-22 | White Sox -130 v. Royals | 3-8 | Loss | -130 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. We'll continue to fade Royals starter Kris Bubic as he takes the ball against Johnny Cueto of the White Sox on Wednesday. Cueto has 'turned back the clock' this season, posting a solid 4.02 FIP and 1.19 WHIP while giving up just under 3.10 runs per nine innings. Behind the veteran right-hander is a White Sox bullpen that is in excellent form, having posted a collective 1.80 ERA and 0.95 WHIP over the last seven games. On the road this season, the White Sox 'pen owns a 2.80 ERA and 1.12 WHIP with 18 saves converted and only seven blown. Bubic sports a 4.92 FIP and 1.54 WHIP while allowing north of 5.8 runs per nine frames. Keep in mind, the White Sox average 0.3 runs per game above their season scoring average when facing left-handed starting pitching this season. The Royals bullpen has logged a 4.57 ERA and 1.53 WHIP at home this season and a 3.92 ERA and 1.40 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take Chicago (9*). | |||||||
08-10-22 | Braves -138 v. Red Sox | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Year. My selection is on Atlanta first five innings over Boston at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Braves got past the fading Red Sox last night and while I anticipate a similar result on Wednesday, rather than back them in the full game, we'll support them in the first five innings only here. Kyle Wright will take the ball for Atlanta. He's quietly having a terrific season, perhaps overshadowed by the exploits of Max Fried and standout rookie Spencer Strider. Wright checks in with a 3.75 FIP and 1.17 WHIP while allowing just north of 3.4 runs per nine innings. He'll be looking for revenge here after giving up six earned runs in just 4 2/3 innings in a start against Boston back in May. I'm willing to give him a mulligan for that poor outing based on his impressive performance overall this season. My concern with the Braves is their bullpen but we'll look to avoid that relief corps by playing the first five innings only. The Atlanta 'pen has posted a collective 5.18 ERA and 1.48 WHIP over the last seven games. Boston will give Nick Pivetta the start in this one. He owns a 4.16 FIP and 1.33 WHIP this season, yielding just over 4.5 runs per nine innings. Thanks to his previous days pitching for the Phillies in the N.L. East, the Braves will be seeing Pivetta for the sixth time since the start of 2019. He's given up at least four earned runs in four of his previous five starts against them. Take Atlanta first five innings (10*). | |||||||
08-10-22 | Marlins +1.5 v. Phillies | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami +1.5 runs over Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. While we're being asked to lay a steep price to grab the insurance run with the Marlins here, the fact that we're able to get the +1.5 at all is a steal in my opinion. The case can certainly be made for the Marlins to be favored in this matchup but I will grab that insurance run as they've had a knack for finding ways to lose games lately. Sandy Alcantara will take the ball for Miami. He is of course one of the top contenders for the N.L. Cy Young Award this season having posted a 2.86 FIP and 0.94 WHIP while allowing just 2.27 runs per nine innings. After a shaky outing in Pittsburgh, Alcantara bounced back in a big way last time out, tossing a complete game shutout against the Reds (we won with the Marlins in that game). Noah Syndergaard will counter for the Phillies. He's having a fine season but certainly doesn't boast the same sort of numbers as Alcantara. The veteran right-hander sports a 3.85 FIP and 1.27 WHIP while giving up 4.24 runs per nine innings. Behind Syndergaard is a struggling Phillies bullpen that has recorded a collective 6.75 ERA and 1.71 WHIP over the last seven games. In stark contrast, the Marlins 'pen has posted a 1.45 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Miami +1.5 runs (8*). | |||||||
08-10-22 | Nationals v. Cubs -165 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Washington at 2:20 pm et on Wednesday. The Nationals evened this series at a game apiece with a 6-5 victory last night at Wrigley Field but I look for the Cubs to answer right back on Wednesday. Josiah Gray will take the ball for Washington. He checks in with a 5.72 FIP and 1.31 WHIP this season while allowing just north of 5.0 runs per nine innings. Behind Gray is an awful Nats bullpen that has posted a collective 6.59 ERA and 1.68 WHIP over the last seven games and has been generally awful on the road this season (5.56 ERA and 1.49 WHIP). Justin Steele will counter for the Cubs. The fact that he's a left-hander already gives him a leg up on the Nats, noting that they've gone a woeful 11-25 against southpaw starters this season. Steele enters this start with a 3.34 FIP and 1.41 WHIP having allowed just over 4.6 runs per nine innings. The Cubs bullpen has been a bright spot overall this season and checks in with a 3.90 ERA and 1.27 WHIP at home this season. Take Chicago (8*). | |||||||
08-09-22 | Angels -175 v. A's | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. The case could certainly be made for the Angels to be priced north of -200 in this contest and we may very well see the price get there by the time first pitch rolls around. Shohei Ohtani will get the start for the Angels. While he hasn't received the same amount of hype as he did a year ago when he did a little more with the bat, he's having another terrific campaign on the mound, posting Cy Young Award-caliber numbers - a 2.42 FIP and a 1.04 WHIP while allowing just 3.00 runs per nine innings. Behind Ohtani is an Angels bullpen that has been lights out lately, recording a collective 1.73 ERA and 0.81 WHIP over the last seven games, not to mention a solid 3.60 ERA and 1.14 WHIP away from home this season. James Kaprielian will counter for Oakland. He's logged a disappointing 5.20 FIP and 1.29 WHIP while giving up north of 4.4 runs per nine innings this season. While the A's bullpen hasn't been bad lately, it certainly hasn't posted the same type of numbers as that of the Angels with a 4.28 ERA and 1.05 WHIP over the last seven contests. At home this season, Oakland relievers have combined to record a 4.64 ERA and 1.45 WHIP with just 11 saves converted and six blown. Take Los Angeles (8*). | |||||||
08-09-22 | Cardinals -160 v. Rockies | 5-16 | Loss | -160 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis over Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday. While the Cardinals could certainly be ripe for a letdown off a sweep of the Yankees over the weekend, I believe their advantages on the mound are too strong to ignore in this particular matchup. Miles Mikolas will take the ball for St. Louis. He checks in with a 3.68 FIP and 1.01 WHIP while allowing just shy of 3.2 runs per nine innings this season. Behind Mikolas is a Cards bullpen that has posted a collective 1.59 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over the last seven games. Meanwhile, the Rockies will turn to Ryan Feltner, who continues to labor through the 2022 season. He sports a 4.51 FIP and 1.45 WHIP while giving up 5.98 runs per nine innings. Perhaps even more problematic is the Rockies bullpen, which has logged an 8.15 ERA and 1.91 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take St. Louis (8*). | |||||||
08-09-22 | Reds v. Mets -1.5 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York -0.5 runs first five innings over Cincinnati at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. While I realize the Reds don't have a wealth of starting pitching talent that's ready for the big league level right now, it's still hard to believe that they continue to trot out veteran left-hander Mike Minor every five days. To say that Minor has struggled this season would be an understatement. He checks in sporting a 6.57 FIP and 1.57 WHIP while yielding north of 6.8 runs per nine innings. We can no longer blame it on a small sample size either as he's logged 11 starts covering a span of 56 2/3 innings. The Mets will counter with Carlos Carrasco on Tuesday. He's pitched well lately, lowering his FIP to 3.44 and his WHIP to 1.28 and has given up just north of 3.8 runs per nine innings this season. Carrasco allows 1.0 fewer hits, 1.6 fewer walks and perhaps most importantly 1.6 fewer home runs per nine innings when compared to Minor this season. The reason we're laying the half-run with the Mets in the first five innings only again tonight (we won with the same play last night) is the fact that their bullpen has been unsteady lately, recording a collective 5.48 ERA and 1.52 WHIP over the last seven games. Over that same stretch, the Reds 'pen has posted a terrific 2.42 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. Take New York -0.5 runs first five innings (8*). | |||||||
08-09-22 | Marlins v. Phillies UNDER 7.5 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Miami and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. I'm anticipating a low-scoring start to this N.L. East showdown on Tuesday as the Marlins send an underrated Braxton Garrett to the hill against Zack Wheeler of the Phillies. Garrett enters Tuesday's start having lowered his FIP to 3.04 and his WHIP to 1.16, yielding just shy of 4.2 runs per nine innings this season. He's struck out 11 batters twice in his last four starts, racking up 37 K's over his last four outings, covering a span of 22 2/3 innings. Wheeler has put up Cy Young Award-caliber numbers for the Phillies again this season, recording a 2.85 FIP and 1.01 WHIP while allowing under 3.0 runs per nine innings. He's worked exactly seven innings and given up two earned runs or less in five of his last six starts. The problem with playing the full game 'under' here isn't either starter, it's the bullpens. Miami's relief corps has already blown 13 saves away from home this season while Philadelphia's 'pen checks in with a 7.23 ERA and 1.88 WHIP over the last seven games. Take the first five innings under (8*). | |||||||
08-09-22 | Blue Jays -150 v. Orioles | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -150 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
MLB A.L. Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Toronto over Baltimore at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. This one sets up exceptionally well as a bounce-back spot for the Blue Jays after last night's 7-4 loss here at Camden Yards. Alek Manoah will take the ball for Toronto. He's having a fine sophomore campaign having posted a 3.42 FIP and 0.99 WHIP while yielding just 2.8 runs per nine innings. He hasn't had his best stuff over his last couple of outings, but last time out that was still enough to guide the Jays to a 9-3 victory in Minnesota. The last time Manoah faced the Orioles he tossed six shutout innings back on June 13th. Prior to that he gave up just one earned run over seven frames against them last October. Kyle Bradish will counter for Baltimore. While the O's have had many young arms rise to the occasion this season, Bradish hasn't been one of them. He owns an ugly 5.15 FIP and 1.65 WHIP while giving up a whopping 6.71 runs per nine innings. The Jays saw him in June and tagged him for five earned runs on nine hits over just 4 1/3 innings. The bullpens are virtually a wash in this game so we'll confidently back the Jays based on their considerable starting pitching advantage. Take Toronto (10*). | |||||||
08-08-22 | Pirates v. Diamondbacks -1.5 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona -0.5 runs first five innings over Pittsburgh at 9:40 pm et on Monday. We have enough of a starting pitching advantage to support the D'Backs at an admittedly steep price point in the first five innings in Monday's series-opener against the Pirates. Pittsburgh will hand the ball to Tyler Beede. He's logged 41 2/3 innings this season and hasn't fared particularly well, recording a 4.36 FIP and 1.49 WHIP while giving up 4.1 runs per nine innings. In comparison with his counterpart on Monday, Zac Gallen, he has allowed 2.5 more hits and 1.5 more walks per nine innings. Gallen is having a fine season having posted a 3.68 FIP and 1.04 WHIP while allowing only 3.64 runs per nine innings. The only reason I hesitate to back the D'Backs for the full game here is the fact that the Pirates bullpen has been lights out lately, recording a collective 1.99 ERA and 1.23 WHIP over the last seven games. The D'Backs meanwhile have converted just 10 saves while blowing eight at home this season. Take Arizona -0.5 runs first five innings (8*). | |||||||
08-08-22 | Nationals v. Cubs -175 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Washington at 8:05 pm et on Monday. I'll gladly back the Cubs at a sub -200 price in this matchup as they host the reeling Nationals on Monday. Anibal Sanchez's return to the Nationals rotation hasn't gone well as he checks in with a 7.02 FIP and 1.50 WHIP while allowing a whopping 8.1 runs per nine innings, albeit with a small sample size of just 20 innings. Behind Sanchez is a Nats bullpen that has struggled away from home all season and sports a 5.59 ERA and 1.45 WHIP over the last seven contests. Cubs starter Keegan Thompson has been an underrated commodity all season in my opinion, relatively speaking at least. He enters Monday's start with a 3.99 FIP and 1.27 WHIP, giving up an average of 4.06 runs per nine innings. The Cubs bullpen has held up well overall this season and checks in with a 3.04 ERA and 1.40 WHIP over the last seven games. Take Chicago (8*). | |||||||
08-08-22 | Reds v. Mets -1.5 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York -0.5 runs first five innings over Cincinnati at 7:10 pm et on Monday. The Mets are rolling right now and there's little reason to expect the Reds to serve as anything more than a speedbump on Monday. With that being said, New York's bullpen has struggled to the tune of an ERA north of 6.00 and a 1.56 WHIP over the last seven games and I like the way the starting pitching matchup sets up so we'll back it in the first five innings only here. Cincinnati will give Justin Dunn his first big league start of the season. He's struggled at the minor league level here in 2022, posting a 6.75 ERA and 1.82 WHIP in 28 innings of work. Of course, he hasn't found much success at the big league level in his career either, most recently posting a 4.74 FIP and 1.31 WHIP with the Mariners last season. Chris Bassitt will counter for New York. He was terrific in his most recent start, tossing seven shutout innings against Washington. On the season he has recorded a 3.71 FIP and 1.12 WHIP while giving up just shy of 3.7 runs per nine innings. Take New York -0.5 runs first five innings (8*). | |||||||
08-07-22 | Padres v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 28 h 51 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between San Diego and Los Angeles at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. While these two teams are obviously loaded with offensive talent, I’m anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair in Sunday night’s series-finale in Los Angeles. Yu Darvish will take the ball for the Padres. He’s looking to bounce back from a shaky outing against a Rockies team that has seemingly had his number in recent years. Note that Darvish still owns a terrific 3.27 FIP and 0.99 WHIP this season, allowing just 3.3 runs per nine innings. His counterpart on Sunday will be left-hander Tyler Anderson of the Dodgers. Anderson should be pleased to be facing a Padres club that has had a tougher time producing runs against southpaw starters this season, averaging just 4.2 runs per game compared to their season scoring average of 4.4 rpg (entering last night’s action). Anderson checks in sporting a 3.36 FIP and 1.03 WHIP while limiting opponents to just 3.04 runs per nine innings. Both bullpens have been outstanding lately with the Padres relief corps entering last night’s action with a 1.09 ERA and 0.89 WHIP over its last seven games and the Dodgers logging an even better 0.98 ERA and 0.54 WHIP over that same stretch. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
08-07-22 | Braves v. Mets UNDER 6.5 | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and New York at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. This has the makings of one of the best starting pitching matchups on Sunday’s board as the Braves send impressive rookie Spencer Strider to the hill against Jacob deGrom of the Mets. Strider has turned heads in his rookie campaign, posting a 1.97 FIP and 0.99 WHIP while allowing only 3.0 runs per nine innings. He faced the Mets back in mid-July and allowed just one earned run over 4 2/3 innings in a 4-1 Braves victory. Jacob deGrom will be making his second start back from injury. He didn’t miss a beat in his first start back, allowing just one earned run on three hits while striking out six and not walking a batter in five innings against the Nationals. While he does face a tougher opponent here, I’m confident he’ll be up for the challenge. As I noted in my analysis of last night’s play on the ‘under’ in this matchup, both bullpens headed into the weekend in fine form. Even off yesterday’s double-header, I’m confident they’ll both hold up well on Sunday. Take the under. | |||||||
08-07-22 | White Sox v. Rangers OVER 8.5 | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 23 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Texas at 2:35 pm et on Sunday. I’m confident we’ll see the hitters feast on Sunday’s subpar starting pitchers as this series wraps on a high-scoring note in Texas. White Sox starter Lucas Giolito is in the midst of a massively disappointing campaign having posted a 4.34 FIP and 1.49 WHIP while allowing north of 5.4 runs per nine innings. While the bullpen behind him has been terrific lately, I’m not convinced it will be enough to make up for Giolito’s shortcomings here. Meanwhile, Rangers right-hander Spencer Howard has been one of the worst starters in baseball this season. He owns a 6.90 FIP and 1.63 WHIP while giving up a whopping 7.08 runs per nine innings. The Texas bullpen hasn’t been much better lately, logging a collective 5.02 ERA and 1.33 WHIP over the last seven games (entering last night’s action). Take the over (8*). | |||||||
08-06-22 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks -165 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -165 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
My selection is on Arizona over Colorado at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. We’ll confidently get behind the D’Backs on Saturday as they have a considerable edge in terms of both the starting pitching and bullpen matchup against the Rockies. Antonio Senzatela gets the start for the visiting Rockies. He’s labored through the 2022 season, recording a 4.11 FIP and 1.71 WHIP while giving up north of 5.3 runs per nine innings. The D’Backs will be seeing the right-hander for the second time this season after chasing him following just two innings in an eventual 9-3 victory back on July 1st. Merrill Kelly will counter for Arizona. He has really come into his own lately, lowering his FIP to 3.11 and his WHIP to 1.13. Kelly has allowed just 3.02 runs per nine innings this season. While he’s not likely to win the award, he has at least put himself into the N.L. Cy Young conversation thanks to a terrific run of pitching. The D’Backs bullpen entered last night’s action sporting a collective 2.39 ERA and 1.10 WHIP over the last seven games, not to mention a 3.53 ERA and 1.27 WHIP at home this season. In stark contrast, the Rockies ‘pen owns a 5.87 ERA and 1.65 WHIP over the last seven contests (entering last night’s action). Take Arizona (10*). | |||||||
08-06-22 | Reds v. Brewers OVER 8 | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 18 h 46 m | Show |
N.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Milwaukee at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. We’ll take advantage of a subpar starting pitching matchup not to mention two fading bullpens as we back the ‘over’ in Saturday’s showdown between the Reds and Brewers in Milwaukee. Nick Lodolo will take the ball for Cincinnati. He owns a respectable 3.79 FIP but a disappointing 1.57 WHIP in 38 1/3 innings of work in his rookie season. Opponents have reached the left-hander for 4.7 runs per nine innings. Meanwhile, Brewers starter Aaron Ashby has posted a 3.75 FIP and 1.45 WHIP while giving up north of 5.1 runs per nine innings. As I mentioned, both bullpens have been anything but airtight lately with the Reds relief corps entering last night’s action sporting a collective 4.42 ERA and 1.25 WHIP over the last seven games and a 5.22 ERA and 1.45 WHIP on the road this season. Milwaukee’s ‘pen entered the series with a 5.09 ERA and 1.57 WHIP over its last seven contests. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
08-06-22 | Braves v. Mets UNDER 7 | 2-6 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and New York at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. We've seen a pair of high-scoring games to open this series but I look for a different story to unfold in Game 2 of Saturday's double-header in Queens. Max Fried will take the ball for Atlanta. He's having a Cy Young Award-caliber season having recorded a 2.47 FIP and 1.07 WHIP while giving up only 2.65 runs per nine innings. He issued a season-high five walks, giving up two earned runs over five innings in a 4-1 loss to the Mets the last time he faced them so he'll be looking for a little revenge here. Max Scherzer will counter for the Mets. He didn't have his best stuff against the Nationals last time out but still hung in there, working into the seventh innings in a lopsided victory. Scherzer owns a terrific 2.64 FIP and 0.93 WHIP this season while allowing only 2.33 runs per nine innings. Both bullpens are serviceable in this matchup. The Braves 'pen has posted a collective 3.08 ERA and 1.14 WHIP on the road this season while the Mets relief corps owns a 3.57 ERA and 1.21 WHIP at home. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
08-06-22 | Giants -1.5 v. A's | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco -0.5 runs over Oakland at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. While Giants starter Carlos Rodon has struggled since the All-Star break, I’m anticipating a return to form against the A’s on Saturday. Rodon still owns a terrific 2.28 FIP and 1.07 WHIP on the season, giving up just 3.07 runs per nine innings. Here, he’ll face an A’s offense that averages only 3.2 runs per game against left-handed starting pitching this season. Adam Oller will take the ball for Oakland. He’s generally been awful this season, recording a 7.15 FIP and 1.73 WHIP while giving up a whopping 8.38 runs per nine innings. With the Giants bullpen struggling over an extended period (not to mention just 11 saves converted and eight blown on the road this season - entering last night’s action), we’ll look to back them in the first five innings only on Saturday. Take San Francisco -0.5 runs first five innings (8*). | |||||||
08-06-22 | Rays -1.5 v. Tigers | 1-9 | Loss | -145 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay -0.5 runs first five innings over Detroit at 6:10 pm et on Saturday. The Rays own a considerable starting pitching advantage in this matchup as they hand the ball to their ace Shane McClanahan against Tigers rookie Garrett Hill. With the bullpens virtually a wash, we’ll lay the half-run with Tampa Bay in the first five innings only here. McClanahan is actually coming off one of his worst outings of the season, allowing five earned runs in just 4 1/3 innings of work against Cleveland. I’m confident he’ll bounce back against the light-hitting Tigers on Saturday, noting that the left-hander owns a terrific 2.63 FIP and 0.83 WHIP while allowing only 2.43 runs per nine innings this season. Hill on the other hand has faded after a solid start, with his FIP rising to 5.65 and his WHIP to 1.35 while giving up an average of 5.88 runs per nine innings. Take Tampa Bay -0.5 runs first five innings (8*). | |||||||
08-06-22 | Nationals v. Phillies -1.5 | 5-11 | Win | 100 | 7 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia -0.5 runs first five innings over Washington at 6:05 pm et on Saturday. It’s not often we give the Phillies a decisive starting pitching advantage with Ranger Suarez on the mound but we will do so tonight as the left-hander takes the ball against fellow southpaw Patrick Corbin of the Nationals. Suarez checks in with a 3.83 FIP and 1.35 WHIP while allowing 4.26 runs per nine innings this season. Not great numbers by any means but certainly superior to those of Corbin who sports an ugly 4.66 FIP and 1.77 WHIP while yielding just shy of 7.5 runs per nine innings. Note that the Nationals have gone a woeful 11-24 against left-handed starting pitching this season. Given the fact that the Phillies bullpen has been struggling, posting a collective 7.71 ERA and 1.57 WHIP over the last seven games (entering last night’s action), we’ll back them in the first five innings only on Saturday. Take Philadelphia -0.5 runs first five innings (8*). | |||||||
08-06-22 | Pirates v. Orioles OVER 8.5 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Pittsburgh and Baltimore at 5:05 pm et on Saturday. I’m anticipating a high-scoring start to this interleague contest as the Pirates send JT Brubaker to the hill against Austin Voth of the Orioles. Brubaker checks in with a 3.85 FIP and 1.49 WHIP on the season, allowing an average of 5.18 runs per nine innings. Voth has posted similar numbers with a 3.93 FIP and 1.59 WHIP while giving up just shy of 6.1 runs per nine innings. With the two bullpens thriving lately (the Buccos ‘pen entered last night’s action with a 2.16 ERA and 1.23 WHIP over the last seven games while the O’s relief corps posted a 3.42 ERA and 1.14 WHIP over the same stretch) we’ll look to play the ‘over’ in the first five innings only in this one. Take the first five innings over (8*). | |||||||
08-05-22 | Yankees -142 v. Cardinals | 3-4 | Loss | -142 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over St. Louis at 8:15 pm et on Friday. We’ll give the Yankees the considerable advantage in terms of both the starting pitching and the bullpen matchup in this one and the price is reasonable to back them. Nestor Cortes Jr. will take the ball for New York. He’s obviously enjoying a breakout season having posted a 3.35 FIP and 1.02 WHIP while giving up only 2.62 runs per nine innings. In comparison with his counterpart on Friday, Dakota Hudson, Cortes has given up 1.1 fewer hits and 1.9 fewer walks per nine innings this season. The Yankees bullpen has been outstanding all season and that has certainly been the case lately as they’ve recorded a collective 2.39 ERA and 1.03 WHIP over the last seven games. Hudson checks in with a 4.62 FIP and 1.36 WHIP this season, yielding just shy of 4.2 runs per nine innings. Behind Hudson is a Cardinals bullpen that entered yesterday’s double-header against the Cubs having posted a collective 6.11 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take New York (8*). | |||||||
08-05-22 | Red Sox v. Royals OVER 9 | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Friday. For many of the same reasons we backed the ‘over’ in the opener of this series last night, we’ll go right back to the well with the same play on Friday. Rookie Josh Winckowski got off to a reasonably solid start for the Red Sox this season but the wheels have since come off. He checks in sporting a 5.09 FIP and 1.51 WHIP while allowing 5.2 runs per nine innings. Veteran Zack Greinke hasn’t been much better for the Royals. He owns a 4.47 FIP and 1.30 WHIP while giving up an average of 4.72 runs per nine innings. While the Red Sox bullpen has been serviceable lately, it’s by no means unbeatable having logged a 3.86 ERA and 1.30 WHIP with just 13 saves converted and 12 blown on the road this season (entering last night’s action). Meanwhile, the Royals bullpen owns a 4.59 ERA and 1.53 WHIP at home (also entering last night’s action). Take the over (8*). | |||||||
08-05-22 | White Sox -173 v. Rangers | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Texas at 8:05 pm et on Friday. The Rangers narrowly took the opener of this series last night but I look for the White Sox to rebound on Friday. White Sox starter Dylan Cease continues to stake his claim as an A.L. Cy Young Award contender having posted a 2.70 FIP and 1.17 WHIP this season, allowing only 2.78 runs per nine innings. You would have to go back 13 starts, all the way to late-May, to find the last time Cease gave up more than a single earned run in an outing. His counterpart on Friday will be Glenn Otto of the Rangers. He’s mired in an awful rookie campaign, sporting a 5.30 FIP and 1.46 WHIP while giving up 5.75 runs per nine frames. Chicago should own the later innings in this game as well as its bullpen has been terrific lately, recording a collective 2.21 ERA and 1.03 WHIP over the last seven games (entering last night’s action). Take Chicago (8*). | |||||||
08-05-22 | Braves v. Mets -135 | 9-6 | Loss | -135 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York first five innings over Atlanta at 7:10 pm et on Friday. We’ve had some success backing the Mets in the first five innings in recent games and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well again on Friday as they hand the ball to Taijuan Walker against Ian Anderson of the Braves. Anderson has arguably been the weak link in the Braves otherwise terrific rotation this season. He checks in with a 4.24 FIP and 1.51 WHIP on the campaign, yielding an average of 5.08 runs per nine innings. Mets starter Taijuan Walker is having an outstanding season, entering Friday’s game with a 3.35 FIP and 1.13 WHIP while allowing less than 2.9 runs per nine innings. The issue with backing the Mets for the full game is their bullpen. They’ve struggled in that department lately with their ‘pen posting a collective 5.83 ERA and 1.30 WHIP over the last seven games (entering last night’s action). Take New York first five innings (8*). | |||||||
08-05-22 | Nationals v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 60 m | Show |
N.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Friday. I’m expecting plenty of offense in this game on Friday as the Nationals send Josiah Gray to the mound against Kyle Gibson of the Phillies. Gray enters with an ugly 5.30 FIP and 1.28 WHIP while allowing 4.68 runs per nine innings. As he doesn’t have a tendency to last deep into ball games, we should see plenty of the Nationals bullpen, which checks in with a 5.46 ERA and 1.47 WHIP on the road this season (entering last night’s action). Interestingly, Gibson allows an identical 4.68 runs per nine innings to that of Gray. He has posted a 4.43 FIP and 1.23 WHIP on the campaign. Behind Gibson is fading Phillies bullpen that entered last night’s action having recorded a collective 6.75 ERA and 1.46 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
08-04-22 | Red Sox v. Royals OVER 9 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 102 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
A.L. Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. The Red Sox are coming off a low-scoring series against the Astros and have now seen each of their last four games stay 'under' the total. I expect a different story to unfold on Thursday, however. Nick Pivetta will get the start for the visiting Red Sox. After a strong stretch earlier this season, the wheels came off and he's never really been able to regain his footing. Pivetta has seen his FIP rise to 4.16 and his WHIP to 1.32 while allowing just under 4.5 runs per nine innings on the campaign. While the Red Sox bullpen has been serviceable, it has by no means been 'lights out', posting a collective 4.05 ERA and 1.35 WHIP over the last seven games (entering last night's action). Kris Bubic has seen his season unfold differently than Pivetta's as he got off to a difficult start but has settled down somewhat since. With that being said, his overall numbers are not good as he owns a 5.19 FIP and 1.60 WHIP while yielding north of 6.0 runs per nine frames. The Royals bullpen didn't give up a run yesterday in Chicago but prior to that had recorded a collective 5.14 ERA and 1.67 WHIP over the last seven contests. It has posted a 4.59 ERA and 1.53 WHIP at home this season. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
08-04-22 | Blue Jays v. Twins UNDER 8.5 | 9-3 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Minnesota at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. The Blue Jays have now seen each of their last seven games stay 'under' the total while you would have to go back five contests to find the last time Minnesota posted an 'over' result. I look for those trends to continue in the opener of a four-game series between the two teams tonight in Minnesota. Alek Manoah will get the start for Toronto. He's having a fine sophomore campaign having posted a 3.40 FIP and 0.99 WHIP while holding opponents to only 2.79 runs per nine innings. Behind Manoah is a Jays bullpen that has been locked in lately, recording a collective 1.57 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over the last seven games (entering yesterday's action). Sonny Gray has 'turned back the clock' in a sense for the Twins this season, posting a 3.41 FIP and 1.11 WHIP while giving up just over 3.5 runs per nine innings. Meanwhile, the Twins bullpen has been fairly steady of late, logging a collective 3.64 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over the last seven games (also entering yesterday's action). Take the under (8*). | |||||||
08-04-22 | Winnipeg v. Montreal +6 | 35-20 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Montreal plus the points over Winnipeg at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. We might have been a week early fading the Blue Bombers last Saturday as they were entrenched in a battle with the Stampeders but ultimately came away with a seven-point victory. Here, I expect them to have their hands full with the Alouettes in Montreal. The Als check in 2-5 on the season although all but one of their losses could have gone either way. Last week they couldn't muster enough offense in a 24-17 loss to the Ti-Cats (we won with the 'under' in that game). Keep in mind, they're just one game removed from putting up 40 points in a road victory in Ottawa. While Montreal checks in as healthy as it has been all season, Winnipeg continues to deal with some nagging injuries to key players. While all indications are that the Blue Bombers key cogs will be 'full go' for this one, there's no denying it's a tough scheduling spot playing on a short week after that hard-fought battle against Calgary last Saturday. Montreal, on the other hand, has been idle since last Thursday. The Als are 3-2 ATS in an underdog role this season and defeated the Bombers by 14 points as a 3.5-point underdog in their home matchup last year. Take Montreal (8*). | |||||||
08-04-22 | Astros -1.5 v. Guardians | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 19 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston -0.5 runs first five innings over Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. We'll back the Astros in the first five innings only on Thursday as their edge lies in the starting pitching matchup rather than in the later innings as the Guardians bullpen has been outstanding lately. Justin Verlander will get the start for Houston. He owns a 3.04 FIP and an even more impressive 0.87 WHIP while holding opponents to just 2.4 runs per nine innings this season. Zach Plesac, meanwhile, checks in with a 4.30 FIP and 1.29 WHIP on the campaign while giving up just north of 5.0 runs per nine frames. Take Houston -0.5 runs first five innings (8*). | |||||||
08-04-22 | Rockies v. Padres -1.5 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -125 | 16 h 26 m | Show |
N.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on San Diego -1.5 runs over Colorado at 4:10 pm et on Thursday. I'm comfortable laying the extra run with the Padres as they host the Rockies on Thursday afternoon in San Diego. Kyle Freeland will get the start for the Rockies. Interestingly, this will be his fourth start against the Padres this season and the Rockies have won each of the first three. I look for that streak to end here. Note that Freeland has posted a less than impressive 4.28 FIP and 1.34 WHIP this season while allowing north of 5.0 runs per nine innings. Behind Freeland is a Rockies bullpen that has hit the skids again, recording a collective 5.47 ERA and 1.64 WHIP over the last seven games, entering yesterday's action. Newly-signed Joe Musgrove will be looking to prove he's worth the monster contract the Padres just gave him. He's well-positioned to do just that having posted a 3.26 FIP and 0.99 WHIP while holding opponents to only 2.97 runs per nine innings this season. The Padres bullpen went through a recent rough stretch but has since turned it around again, recording a collective 3.86 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over the last seven games. Here at home this season, the Padres have converted 14 saves while blowing only five (entering yesterday's action). Take San Diego -1.5 runs (10*). | |||||||
08-04-22 | Brewers -1.5 v. Pirates | 4-5 | Loss | -140 | 13 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee -0.5 runs first five innings over Pittsburgh at 12:35 pm et on Thursday. | |||||||
08-03-22 | Reds v. Marlins -1.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 117 | 15 h 48 m | Show |
MLB Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Miami -0.5 runs first five innings over Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Reds have taken the first two games of this series but I look for the Marlins to bounce back with their ace on the hill on Wednesday. Veteran left-hander Mike Minor gets another turn in the Reds rotation out of necessity only. He owns a 6.74 FIP and 1.58 WHIP while giving up north of 7.0 runs per nine innings this season. While the Marlins have struggled to put runs on the board against left-handed starting pitching, I'm confident they can get to Minor in this one. Sandy Alcantara hasn't necessarily had his best stuff in his last couple of outings but his overall numbers tell the story as he has recorded a 2.87 FIP and 0.94 WHIP while holding opponents to just 2.41 runs per nine innings. After dealing a pair of key bullpen arms to Toronto, I'm only interested in backing the Marlins in the first five innings in this one. We have a decisive enough edge in terms of the starting pitching matchup to lay the half-run with Miami in the first half here. Take Miami -0.5 runs first five innings (10*). | |||||||
08-03-22 | Mets -1.5 v. Nationals | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York -0.5 runs first five innings over Washington at 4:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Mets have a considerable starting pitching advantage in Wednesday's series finale in Washington as they hand the ball to Chris Bassitt against journeyman right-hander Anibal Sanchez of the Nationals. Bassitt is having another fine campaign having posted a 3.79 FIP and 1.13 WHIP while giving up only 3.91 runs per nine innings. He faced the Nats once back in April and tossed six shutout innings. Sanchez owns a 6.75 FIP and 1.40 WHIP while yielding a whopping 7.47 runs per nine innings. Here, he'll be starting on just four days' rest after getting tagged for six earned runs over 5 2/3 innings against the Cardinals last time out. There's no real edge in terms of the bullpens in this matchup, surprisingly enough. With that in mind, we'll lay the half-run with the Mets in the first five innings only. Take New York -0.5 runs first five innings (8*). | |||||||
08-03-22 | Orioles v. Rangers -151 | 6-3 | Loss | -151 | 18 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas over Baltimore at 2:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the Rangers on Wednesday afternoon as they send a rejuvenated Martin Perez to the hill against Kyle Bradish of the Orioles. Bradish is having a tough campaign having posted a 5.32 FIP and 1.70 WHIP while giving up just shy of 7.2 runs per nine innings. He actually had some of his best stuff in his most recent start against the Reds but I'm not convinced he can string together a second straight quality outing here. Perez is of course enjoying a 'turn back the clock' type of season, recording a 3.07 FIP and 1.15 WHIP while holding the opposition to just 2.88 runs per nine innings. The Orioles saw the veteran left-hander once last season and managed to scratch out just one earned run in five innings. With the two bullpens comparable in terms of recent form and with the O's on the road and the Rangers at home, we'll confidently back the Rangers at home in this matinee affair. Take Texas (8*). | |||||||
08-03-22 | Phillies +1.5 v. Braves | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia +1.5 runs over Atlanta at 12:20 pm et on Wednesday. I'll gladly grab the insurance run with the Phillies in the finale of this brief two-game series in Atlanta on Wednesday. Zack Wheeler will get the start for Philadelphia. He checks in sporting a 2.84 FIP and 1.03 WHIP while giving up only 3.09 runs per nine innings this season. In 23 career outings against Atlanta, Wheeler owns a solid 3.19 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Behind Wheeler is a Phillies bullpen that entered last night's action with a 3.52 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over its last seven games. On the road this season, the Phillies have converted 16 saves while blowing eight. Charlie Morton will counter for Atlanta. He has recorded a 4.07 FIP and 1.25 WHIP while giving up 4.5 runs per nine innings. The Phillies have already seen Morton three times previously this season, reaching him for 10 earned runs in 15 innings. The Atlanta bullpen has posted a collective 4.22 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over the last seven contests and has blown 10 saves (while making good on 18) at home this season, again entering last night's action. Take Philadelphia +1.5 runs (8*). | |||||||
08-02-22 | Red Sox v. Astros -1.5 | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston -1.5 runs over Boston at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Astros should have the decided advantage both early and late in Tuesday’s game and we’ll confidently back them at a reasonable price. Rookie Kutter Crawford will take the ball for the visiting Red Sox. He checks in with a 3.72 FIP and 1.22 WHIP this season, giving up just north of 4.3 runs per nine innings. My concern here is that he’ll be starting on just four days’ rest for a second straight turn in the rotation. He turned in one of his best efforts of the season last time out against Cleveland. That was at home against a weaker opponent than he’ll face tonight, however. His counterpart on Tuesday will be Cristian Javier of the Astros. While his numbers have risen recently, he still owns a solid 3.39 FIP and 1.06 WHIP while yielding just 3.26 runs per nine innings this season. Meanwhile, the Astros bullpen behind Javier has been terrific, particularly at home. Entering this series, Houston’s relief corps had posted a collective 1.91 ERA and 0.93 WHIP with 14 saves converted and only five blown here at Minute Maid Park. The Red Sox ‘pen entered the series with just 11 saves converted and 12 blown away from home this season. Take Houston -1.5 runs (8*). | |||||||
08-02-22 | Royals v. White Sox OVER 8.5 | 2-9 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Kansas City and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. The White Sox posted their third straight ‘under’ result last night as they dropped a 2-1 decision to the Royals here at home. I’m anticipating a higher-scoring affair on Tuesday as Chicago sends a struggling Lucas Giolito to the hill against Brad Keller of Kansas City. Giolito is having a trying season to say the least. He has recorded a 4.45 FIP and 1.48 WHIP while giving up north of 5.5 runs per nine innings. Over his last two outings he has been tagged for nine earned runs on 15 hits over just eight innings of work. Royals starter Brad Keller checks in with a 4.26 FIP and 1.32 WHIP while yielding 4.68 runs per nine innings on the campaign. The White Sox haven’t had a great deal of success against him this season but will be seeing him for a third time on Tuesday and it’s not as if he’s really been fooling them as he has just six strikeouts in 14 innings against them. The two bullpens have struggled. Kansas City’s relief corps entered this series sporting a collective 5.25 ERA and 1.67 WHIP with no saves converted and two blown over its last seven games. Meanwhile, the White Sox ‘pen had recorded a 6.26 ERA and 1.70 WHIP over the same stretch and has just 13 saves converted and nine blown at home this season. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
08-02-22 | Brewers -1.5 v. Pirates | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -140 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
N.L. Central Game of the Year. My selection is on Milwaukee -0.5 runs first five innings over Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. We’ll back the Brewers in this one, but rather than support them over the full nine innings we’ll lay the half-run with them in the first five frames only as I like the starting pitching edge but there’s little advantage in terms of the two bullpens. Burnes owns a 2.93 ERA and 0.92 WHIP while giving up only 2.6 runs per nine innings this season. He’s faced the Pirates six times over the course of his career, recording a 2.27 ERA and 1.01 WHIP with the Brewers winning five of those games. The concern is, the Brewers bullpen has posted a 5.04 ERA and 1.44 WHIP over the last seven games. The Pirates ‘pen on the other hand has quietly turned it around after a rough stretch, recording a 2.96 ERA and 1.36 WHIP over its last seven contests. Bryse Wilson gets the start for Pittsburgh. He has endured a tough big league season having posted a 4.68 FIP and 1.60 WHIP while giving up a whopping 7.44 runs per nine innings. The Brewers will be seeing him for the second time and I expect them to have greater success after reaching him for just two earned runs over six innings in a 7-4 loss back on July 2nd. Note that despite that recent solid outing, in four career starts against Milwaukee, Wilson owns a 5.21 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. Take Milwaukee -0.5 runs first five innings (10*). | |||||||
08-02-22 | Reds v. Marlins -128 | 2-1 | Loss | -128 | 10 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami over Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. I realize the fact that Marlins starter Braxton Garrett just struggled against these same Reds in his most recent outing but I'm willing to give him a mulligan for that poor start and expect him to bounce back and help his team snap its four-game slide on Tuesday. Garrett has actually posted solid numbers this season. He owns a 3.23 FIP and 1.19 WHIP while giving up 4.3 runs per nine innings. Behind Garrett is a Miami bullpen that has recorded a 3.70 ERA and 1.23 WHIP over the last seven contests. Graham Ashcraft will counter for Cincinnati. He has posted a 4.05 FIP and 1.42 WHIP while yielding just shy of 4.8 runs per nine innings in his rookie campaign. A concern for the Reds is a bullpen that has posted a collective 5.33 ERA and 1.46 WHIP on the road this season. Take Miami (8*). | |||||||
08-02-22 | Rockies v. Padres -1.5 | 5-13 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego -0.5 runs first five innings over Colorado at 4:10 pm et on Tuesday. We’ll back the Padres in the first five innings in Game 1 of this double-header on Tuesday in San Diego. The Padres have a significant starting pitching advantage in this one as they send Yu Darvish to the mound against Ryan Feltner. Darvish checks in with a 3.14 FIP and 0.97 WHIP this season, yielding just 3.24 runs per nine innings. The problem is the Padres bullpen has been struggling, recording a collective 4.87 ERA and 1.28 WHIP over the last seven games. We’ll look to avoid that unit by playing the first five innings only. Ryan Feltner will get the start for the Rockies. He has posted a 4.39 FIP and 1.35 WHIP while giving up north of 5.8 runs per nine innings this season. Note that Feltner has allowed 2.7 more hits, 0.7 more home runs and 0.6 more walks per nine innings compared to Darvish. Take San Diego -0.5 runs first five innings (8*). | |||||||
08-01-22 | Dodgers v. Giants UNDER 7.5 | 8-2 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Monday. The Dodgers saw each of their last three games at hitter-friendly Coors Field stay 'under' the total while the Giants have posted just one 'over' result in their last five games overall. I look for those trends to continue in Monday's series-opener between these N.L. West rivals on Monday. Andrew Heaney will get his second start back from injury for the Dodgers. He had a nice return last week, tossing four shutout innings of one-hit ball against the Nationals. Here, we'll likely see the left-hander get stretched out a little more. In 19 1/3 innings of work this season, Heaney owns a terrific 2.40 FIP and 0.88 WHIP while giving up only 1.4 runs per nine innings (small sample size, I know). Behind Heaney is a Dodgers bullpen that owns a 2.84 ERA and 1.11 WHIP with 10 saves converted and only two blown on the road this season. Logan Webb will take the ball for the Giants. He didn't have his best stuff last time out in Arizona but still hung around for 6 1/3 innings, ultimately keeping his team in the game in an eventual 5-3 loss to the D'Backs. Webb has now lasted at least six innings in nine consecutive starts. On the season, Webb has recorded a 3.21 FIP and 1.13 WHIP while giving up just shy of 3.2 runs per nine innings. It's also worth noting that Webb owns a career 2.50 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in nine starts against the Dodgers. The only time he gave up more than two earned runs against them, we still saw that contest total only seven runs (in a 7-0 Dodgers win back in August 2020). You would have to go back six Webb starts against the Dodgers to find the last time a game went 'over' seven runs. I'll admit the Giants bullpen is a concern as it owns a collective 6.86 ERA and 1.63 WHIP over the last seven games. I do like the fact that it has logged just 19 2/3 innings over the last seven games, however, and it posted two shutout innings in last night's 4-0 blanking of the Cubs. The San Francisco relief corps has converted 10 saves while blowing only four at home this season. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
08-01-22 | Mets -1.5 v. Nationals | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
N.L. Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on New York -0.5 runs first five innings over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Monday. I like the way this one sets up for the Mets, at least early on, as they head to Washington to open a series against the Nationals on Monday. Max Scherzer will take the ball for New York. He's been terrific since returning from injury, lowering his FIP to 2.50 and WHIP to 0.90 on the season. The Mets ace has allowed just 2.2 runs per nine innings this season. With that being said, there's no real advantage for the Mets in the later innings of this one as their bullpen has been good, but not on the same level as the Nats' relief corps lately. Washington's 'pen has posted a sparkling 1.11 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over the last seven games. At home this season, it has recorded a 3.21 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Patrick Corbin gets the start for Washington on Monday. To say his season has been a disaster might be an understatement. The left-hander owns a 4.62 FIP and 1.77 WHIP while yielding a whopping 7.43 runs per nine innings. The Mets last saw him back on May 31st and tagged him for seven earned runs on 12 hits over just 4 1/3 innings in a 10-0 rout. Take New York -0.5 runs first five innings (10*). | |||||||
07-31-22 | Ottawa v. Toronto UNDER 47.5 | 23-13 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Ottawa and Toronto at 5 pm et on Sunday. The RedBlacks remain winless on the season and they'll be hard-pressed to pick up their first victory in Toronto on Sunday. With that being said, rather than lay the points with the Argos here, we'll play the 'under' as I don't expect Ottawa to come close to approaching the 33 points it scored at home against Montreal last week. Ottawa has had an extended week to prepare for this game having not played since a week ago Thursday. That extra time off has allowed some of their defensive injuries to heal up and I certainly anticipate a better showing from that unit than we saw last week against the Alouettes. Note that prior to that contest, the RedBlacks had held four of their first five opponents to 28 points or less this season. Toronto probably doesn't want QB McLeod Bethel-Thompson slinging it all over the field the way he has the last two games against the Roughriders. In fact, the Argos have attempted 37+ passes in three consecutive games. Here, I look for them to make a concerted effort to 'manage' the game, controlling the clock and ultimately grinding down a very beatable RedBlacks squad. Speaking of QB play, Ottawa has never really been able to settle on a quarterback this season and that's lead to a very disjointed offensive attack. The RedBlacks aren't likely to make a lot of headway against an Argos defense that has steadily rounded into form and arguably sits just behind the Blue Bombers as the best defensive squad in the CFL. Since giving up 44 points in a rout against B.C. back in its second game of the season, Toronto has held its last three opponents to 23, 24 and 21 points. The Argos have allowed 100 yards rushing only once in five games and have limited four of five opponents to fewer than 300 passing yards. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
07-31-22 | A's v. White Sox -1.5 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago -0.5 runs first five innings over Oakland at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. We have a starting pitching mismatch in this game as the White Sox send their ace Dylan Cease to the hill against Adam Oller of the A's. Oller has been having a miserable rookie campaign having posted a 7.51 FIP and 1.86 WHIP while giving up a whopping 8.91 runs per nine innings. The A's bullpen behind him has actually been solid, however, with a 2.88 ERA and 1.08 WHIP over the last seven games so we're not interested in the bullpen matchup here and will elect to fade the A's in 'first five innings' only. Dylan Cease is having a career year, recording a Cy Young Award-caliber 2.66 FIP and 1.19 WHIP. He's limited the opposition to only 2.85 runs per nine innings. Look for the White Sox to get the jump on the A's early in this contest. Take Chicago -0.5 runs first five innings (8*). | |||||||
07-31-22 | Diamondbacks v. Braves UNDER 8 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
MLB Non-Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Atlanta at 1:35 pm et on Sunday. This has been a relatively low-scoring series to this point and I expect more of the same on Sunday. Merrill Kelly gets the start for the D'Backs. He has quietly put together a solid 2022 campaign, recording a 3.21 FIP and 1.15 WHIP while allowing only 3.19 runs per nine innings. Behind Kelly is a suddenly hot D'Backs bullpen that owns a 2.45 ERA and 1.09 WHIP over the last seven games. Braves ace Max Fried has put up Cy Young Award-caliber numbers this season, posting a 2.48 FIP and 1.09 WHIP while yielding only 2.8 runs per nine frames. The Braves bullpen has recorded a 1.12 WHIP over the last seven games and a 3.40 ERA and 1.18 WHIP at home this season. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
07-30-22 | Rangers v. Angels OVER 8 | Top | 7-9 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
MLB Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Texas and Los Angeles at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. I'm anticipating plenty of offense as the Rangers and Angels continue their series in Anaheim on Saturday. Glenn Otto gets the start for the visiting Rangers. He owns a 5.19 FIP and 1.46 WHIP this season, yielding 5.64 runs per nine innings. Command has been a major issue has he has handed out 4.7 walks per nine innings. Chase Silseth hasn't been much better for the Angels. He has recorded a 5.84 FIP and 1.46 WHIP, knocked around for a whopping 10.2 hits per nine innings. Opponents have reached Silseth for 5.84 runs per nine frames. Both bullpens are hittable. The Rangers relief corps has posted a colelctive 4.69 ERA and 1.43 WHIP over the last seven games while the Halos 'pen owns a 4.27 ERA and 1.30 WHIP at home. The two teams have combined to blow 15 saves away and home, respectively. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
07-30-22 | Cubs v. Giants -130 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco first five innings over Chicago at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. We'll back the Giants in the first five innings only in this one as we look to avoid their bullpen, which continues to struggle. I do like the advantage San Francisco has in terms of the starting pitching matchup. The Giants have been terrific against left-handed starting pitching this season, averaging 5.1 runs per game (compared to their season scoring average of 4.6 runs per game). They'll face Drew Smyly on Saturday. He owns a 4.45 FIP and 1.27 WHIP this season, giving up just north of 4.4 runs per nine innings. Jakob Junis will take the ball for San Francisco. He has recorded a 3.89 FIP and 1.01 WHIP while holding the opposition to just under 3.0 runs per nine innings. The problem for the Giants is their bullpen as it has posted a collective 7.58 ERA and 1.79 WHIP over the last seven games. As I said, we'll look to avoid that relief corps by backing the Giants in the first five innings only. Take San Francisco first five innings (8*). | |||||||
07-30-22 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Rockies | 3-5 | Loss | -150 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Colorado at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the Dodgers on the run-line last night as a two-out, two-run single from Randal Grichuk ultimately cost us the win. With that being said, I won't hesitate to come right back with the same play on Saturday. Los Angeles will send Clayton Kershaw to the hill after he struggled against the Giants last time out (the Dodgers still won that game 7-4). Note that he has posted a 2.61 FIP and 0.95 WHIP this season, yielding just 2.61 runs per nine innings. His counterpart on Saturday will be Kyle Freeland. He checks in sporting a 4.32 FIP and 1.36 WHIP, allowing north of 5.0 runs per nine innings. Freeland gives up 2.6 more hits and 1.0 more walks per nine innings compared to Kershaw this season. The Dodgers should have the advantage in the later innings of this one as well as their bullpen owns a collective 2.95 ERA and 1.12 WHIP on the road this season while the Rockies 'pen has posted a 4.31 ERA and 1.31 WHIP at home. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (8*). | |||||||
07-30-22 | Winnipeg v. Calgary +1.5 | 35-28 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Calgary plus the points over Winnipeg at 7 pm et on Saturday. I expect the Blue Bombers undefeated start to the season to finally come to an end on Saturday in Calgary. This is a quick revenge spot for the Stampeders after they dropped a 26-19 decision in Winnipeg two weeks ago. Calgary couldn't have played much worse in that game - on either side of the football - but still lost by just a touchdown, on the road no less. I certainly anticipate a sharper performance here at home, especially given they've had an extra week to prepare. Since that last meeting, the Blue Bombers rolled to a two-touchdown victory in Edmonton (we won with the 'under' in that game) while the Stamps enjoyed their bye week. Note that Winnipeg WR Greg Ellingson is banged-up and remains questionable to play on Saturday. Here, we'll note that the Stamps are a long-term 111-89 ATS when coming off an ATS loss and I look for them to improve on that mark on Saturday. Take Calgary (10*). | |||||||
07-30-22 | Royals v. Yankees -1.5 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
A.L. Game of the Month. My selection is on New York -1.5 runs over Kansas City at 2:05 pm et on Saturday. We won with the Yankees on the run-line last night as they exploded in the eighth inning in an eventual lopsided victory, and I won’t hesitate to come right back with the same play on Saturday afternoon. Jon Heasley will take the ball for the Royals. His rookie campaign has been a disaster in many regards. He has posted a 5.49 FIP and 1.51 WHIP while giving up a whopping 5.85 runs per nine innings. Heasley isn’t likely to get much help from a Royals bullpen that owns a 4.84 ERA and 1.48 WHIP on the road this season (entering last night’s action). Nestor Cortes Jr. will counter for New York. The All-Star has recorded a 3.41 FIP and 1.00 WHIP while yielding only 2.57 runs per nine innings this season. Unlike the Royals, the Yankees have a tremendous bullpen that owns a 2.78 ERA and 1.06 WHIP with 17 saves converted and only five blown at home this season. Take New York -1.5 runs (10*). | |||||||
07-29-22 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Rockies | 5-4 | Loss | -144 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Friday. We’ll confidently back the Dodgers on Friday as they hand the ball to Julio Urias against Chad Kuhl of the Rockies. Urias enters with a 3.91 FIP and 1.00 WHIP this season, giving up just north of 3.3 runs per nine innings. He checks in allowing 2.4 fewer hits and 1.6 fewer walks per nine innings compared to his counterpart on Friday, Kuhl. Kuhl sports a 4.59 FIP and 1.44 WHIP this season. He got off to a fine start to his first campaign with the Rockies but things have gone downhill since. Note that he is allowing just shy of 4.7 runs per nine innings and faces a tall task in the Dodgers loaded lineup here. The bullpens are a mismatch as well as the Dodgers ‘pen has been terrific on the road this season, posting a collective 2.91 ERA and 1.10 WHIP (entering last night’s action), converting nine saves while blowing only two. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (8*). | |||||||
07-29-22 | A's v. White Sox OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-3 | Win | 105 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
A.L. Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Oakland and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Friday. I’m expecting plenty of offense between the A’s and White Sox on Friday as they open a three-game series in Chicago. James Kaprielian has been the weak link in the A’s rotation this season, posting a 5.62 FIP and 1.32 WHIP while giving up just shy of 4.9 runs per nine innings. Behind Kaprielian is an A’s bullpen that I expect to suffer some regression on this road trip following an extended stretch at home. The A’s ‘pen has just 14 saves converted compared to nine blown on the road this season. Veteran Lance Lynn has had an up-and-down return from injury to the White Sox starting rotation. He did pitch well over six innings against the Guardians last time out but I question whether he can follow it up with another quality outing here. Note that Lynn has posted a 4.34 FIP and 1.41 WHIP this season, allowing an ugly average of 7.07 runs per nine innings. The White Sox bullpen has been a mess lately, most recently coughing up Wednesday’s game in the ninth inning in Colorado. The Sox relief corps has posted a collective 6.35 ERA and 1.76 WHIP over the last seven games and hasn’t been much better as a whole at home this season, logging a 5.23 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
07-29-22 | Diamondbacks v. Braves -1.5 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over Arizona at 7:20 pm et on Friday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Braves following a disappointing series in Philadelphia. It’s been a much different story for his counterpart on Friday, Kyle Wright of the Braves. He checks in with a 3.32 FIP and 1.16 WHIP while holding the opposition to only 3.18 runs per nine innings. While Arizona does bring solid bullpen form into this series-opener, much of the recent success that it has enjoyed has come at home. On the road, the D’Backs have recorded a collective 5.18 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. Meanwhile, the Braves ‘pen owns a 3.40 ERA and 1.17 WHIP at home this season. Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (8*). | |||||||
07-29-22 | Guardians v. Rays UNDER 7 | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Tampa Bay at 7:10 pm et on Friday. I’m anticipating a well-pitched game from both sides in St. Petersburg on Friday night as the Guardians send Shane Bieber to the mound against Jeffrey Springs of the Rays. Bieber got roughed up early against the White Sox in his most recent start. I’m confident he’ll bounce back here, noting that he has posted a 3.07 FIP and 1.15 WHIP this season, allowing just shy of 3.8 runs per nine innings. Bieber has had moderate success against the Rays in his career, posting a 3.09 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in four career starts against them. Springs is having a fine campaign as well, recording a 3.58 FIP and 1.10 WHIP while holding the opposition to only 2.63 runs per nine frames. He’ll have the advantage of facing the Guardians for the first time in his career on Friday. This matchup features two capable bullpens with Cleveland’s relief corps having posted a collective 2.45 ERA and 0.94 WHIP over the last seven games (entering last night’s action) and the Rays ‘pen having recorded a 3.18 ERA and 1.10 WHIP at home this season. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
07-29-22 | Royals v. Yankees -1.5 | 5-11 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York -1.5 runs over Kansas City at 7:05 pm et on Friday. Even though he’s pitched well lately, we’ll continue to go against Royals starter Kris Bubic as we continue to anticipate some regression from recent form. On the season, Bubic has recorded a 5.08 FIP and 1.65 WHIP while giving up a whopping 6.19 runs per nine innings. He faced the Yankees once previously back in April and that start didn’t go particularly well as he was tagged for three earned runs on four hits, including two home runs, over five innings in a 12-2 loss. Gerrit Cole will counter for the Yankees on Friday. The All-Star is having another fine season having posted a 3.24 FIP and 1.02 WHIP while giving up only 3.17 runs per nine innings. He should be pleased to see the Royals, noting that he owns a 2.04 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in six career starts against them. The Yankees bullpen went through a bit of a rough patch recently but has since turned it around, posting a collective 3.54 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over the last seven games. For the season, the Yanks ‘pen has recorded a 2.88 ERA and 1.07 WHIP at home, converting 17 saves and blowing only five. Meanwhile, the Royals relief corps has posted a 4.66 ERA and 1.44 WHIP on the road, converting 12 saves and blowing nine. Take New York -1.5 runs (8*). | |||||||
07-29-22 | Phillies v. Pirates +110 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
N.L. Game of the Week. My selection is on Pittsburgh over Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Friday. While we gave the Phillies the edge in terms of starting pitchers in the opener of this series last night, it’s a different story on Friday as Philadelphia sends Bailey Falter to the hill against Jose Quintana of the Pirates. Falter continues to struggle having posted an ugly 6.18 FIP and 1.46 WHIP this season, allowing 6.0 runs per nine innings. We’ve yet to see Falter work beyond the fifth inning in any of his seven career big league starts, which opens the door for a Phillies bullpen that has posted a collective 5.64 ERA and 1.57 WHIP over the last seven games. Jose Quintana has ‘turned back the clock’ for the Pirates this season, putting himself into the conversation as a potential trade option for a contending team. He enters this start sporting a 3.27 FIP and 1.28 WHIP while giving up just shy of 4.0 runs per nine innings. The Pirates bullpen has been solid lately, recording a collective 2.53 ERA and 1.45 WHIP over the last seven games (entering last night’s action). Take Pittsburgh (10*). | |||||||
07-29-22 | Mets v. Marlins UNDER 6.5 | 6-4 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Miami at 6:40 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams have been involved in their share of low-scoring games lately and I expect more of the same on Friday as New York sends Chris Bassitt to the hill against Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara. Bassitt has been quietly rolling along lately, working at least six innings while allowing three earned runs or less in six consecutive outings. For the season, Bassitt has posted a 3.74 FIP and 1.10 WHIP while giving up 3.8 runs per nine innings. Alcantara is one of the leading contenders for the N.L. Cy Young Award as he has recorded a 2.78 FIP and 0.90 WHIP, yielding only 2.24 runs per nine innings. He didn’t have his best stuff in his most recent start but still hung in there, allowing only two earned runs while striking out 10 over six innings in Pittsburgh. Both bullpens have been solid lately with the Mets relief corps posting a 3.58 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over the last seven games and the Marlins ‘pen recording a 3.25 ERA and 1.30 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
07-28-22 | Rangers v. Angels -1.5 | 2-0 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Texas at 9:35 pm et on Thursday. The Rangers have been a major disappointment this season and that narrative has held true this week as they just got swept (again) by the Mariners. I don't see them picking themselves up off the mat for Thursday's series-opener against Shohei Ohtani and the Angels. While Ohtani's bat hasn't been quite as explosive as it was last season, his arm has been just as effective as he checks in sporting a Cy Young Award-caliber 2.41 FIP and 1.00 WHIP while allowing just under 2.9 runs per nine innings. He didn't have his best stuff in his most recent start in Atlanta but actually kept his team in the game for five solid innings before imploding (we cashed with the Angels +0.5 first five innings in that game). I expect him to bounce back here at home on Thursday. Ohtani's counterpart on Thursday will be Spencer Howard of the Rangers. He's been the polar opposite of Ohtani, recording an 8.01 FIP and 1.78 WHIP while giving up just under 7.5 runs per nine frames. Behind Howard is a Rangers bullpen that has posted a collective 5.84 ERA and 1.78 WHIP over the last seven games (entering yesterday's action). Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (8*). | |||||||
07-28-22 | Montreal v. Hamilton UNDER 49 | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 24 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Montreal and Hamilton at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. The Alouettes are coming off four straight 'over' results and have been downright awful defensively in each of their last three games. They do earn a bit of a reprieve here against a struggling Tiger-Cats offense that has been held to 13 points or less in three of six games this season. Last week, Hamilton actually turned in one of its best offensive performances of the season, at least statistically speaking, but could still muster only 12 points in a loss to the Lions. The good news for Hamilton is, its defense has been getting stronger with each passing game. The Ti-Cats two lowest point totals allowed this season have come in their last two contests (they gave up 23 points in a win over Ottawa and 17 in a loss against B.C.). I don't have a lot of faith in either of these offenses finishing many drives with 7's on the board, noting that last year's three meetings totalled just 37, 43 and 35 points. Take the under (8*). |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ricky Tran | $756 |
ProSportsPicks | $632 |
Joseph D'Amico | $510 |
Joey Tron | $450 |
Tom Macrina | $399 |
Nick Parsons | $344 |
Sean Murphy | $306 |
Jack Jones | $303 |
William Burns | $233 |
Dan Kaiser | $220 |