Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
03-14-24 | Xavier v. Connecticut UNDER 150 | 60-87 | Win | 100 | 5 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Xavier and Connecticut at 12 noon et on Thursday. Xavier was able to play at its preferred pace in yesterday's win over Butler, hoisting up a whopping 67 field goal attempts in the 76-72 victory. The Musketeers aren't likely to enjoy the same offensive success against top-seed Connecticut on Thursday. The Huskies rank 12th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season according to KenPom. Also note that UConn checks in 332nd in adjusted tempo. The last time these two teams met the Huskies rolled to a 99-56 victory on January 28th. You can be sure Xavier hasn't forgotten that beatdown and will likely be a little more interested in grinding this rematch out and effectively shortening proceedings, keeping in mind UConn also ranks third in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency. While you wouldn't know it by yesterday's performance, the Musketeers rank inside the top-50 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
03-13-24 | Avalanche v. Canucks -103 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -103 | 15 h 11 m | Show |
Pacific Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Vancouver over Colorado at 10:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Avalanche followed up a perfect three-game homestand with a 6-2 rout of the Flames in Calgary last night. I look for them to have a more difficult time as they continue west to face the Canucks in Vancouver on Wednesday. Note that Colorado has now won three straight meetings in this series including both previous matchups this season. The Avs haven't won four straight games against the Canucks since an eight-game win streak in the series way back in 2007-08. The Canucks enter this game off a mini-bye having not played since Saturday. They're riding a four-game winning streak and check in 21-9 on home ice this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.3 goals. They'll be without starting goaltender Thatcher Demko for an extended period which means it's up to Casey DeSmith to hold the fort. While he's not the long-term answer, I do think he's a capable back-up. The Avs, despite their recent success, are still just 15-19 on the road this season. Take Vancouver (10*). | |||||||
03-13-24 | Nets v. Magic UNDER 206 | Top | 106-114 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Brooklyn and Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. This game pits two teams that have had a tough enough time just getting shots off let alone knocking them down lately. The Nets have been held to 84 or fewer field goal attempts in four of their last five games. You would have to go back seven contests to find the last time they connected on more than 42 field goals. In fact, they've been limited to 42 or fewer made field goals in 14 of their last 17 games. They don't figure to get any sort of break here as the Magic, while struggling to find wins lately, have continued to play tough defense. Orlando checks in having held an incredible seven straight foes to 40 or fewer made field goals and 10 of its last 11 to 41 or fewer. The Magic have allowed more than 80 field goal attempts just twice in their last seven contests. On the flip side, Orlando has knocked down 44 or fewer field goals in 10 straight and 12 of its last 13 games overall. Last time out the Magic broke a streak of six straight games in which they had hoisted up 81 or fewer field goal attempts. The 'under' is 66-45 in Brooklyn's last 111 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent, as is the case here, including a 21-12 record in that situation this season. The Nets have also seen the 'under' go 16-10 in their last 26 contests following a double-digit road win including a 3-1 mark in that spot this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 9-5 in the Magic's last 14 contests with the total set between 200 and 209.5 points including a perfect 3-0 record this season. Finally, the 'under' is 44-35 in Orlando's last 79 games following consecutive losses including an 8-4 mark this season. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-13-24 | Air Force v. New Mexico -14.5 | 56-82 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Mexico minus the points over Air Force at 7 pm et on Wednesday. The Lobos stumbled down the stretch, losing three of their last four games and that means they're in play on the opening day of the Mountain West Conference Tournament on Wednesday. I expect them to take their frustrations out on Air Force as they look to avenge a stunning 78-77 home loss against the Falcons on February 24th. Air Force knocked down 31-of-60 field goal attempts in that contest - a performance it is unlikely to repeat here. Note that the Falcons have connected on 24 or fewer field goals in seven of their last 10 games. In fact, they've gotten off 53 or fewer field goal attempts in six of their last seven contests. That's in stark contrast to the Lobos, who are one of the fastest, most efficient offensive teams in the country. New Mexico has made good on 28, 28, 30 and 34 field goals over its last four contests. The Lobos rank top-five in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom this season. Air Force is 6-10 ATS in its last 16 games following an ATS win but SU loss, as is the case here, including an 0-3 ATS mark this season. Meanwhile, New Mexico is 9-5 ATS in its last 14 contests after giving up 85 points or more in its previous game, including a 3-0 ATS record in that situation this season. Take New Mexico (8*). | |||||||
03-13-24 | UCF +6 v. BYU | 73-87 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on UCF plus the points over BYU at 12:30 pm et on Wednesday. I like the fact that the Knights were able to get a game under their belts on this floor yesterday, breezing past Oklahoma State by a score of 77-62. UCF didn't shoot particularly well as a whole in that game but did connect on 9-of-18 three-point attempts. The Knights sport the 10th ranked defense in the country (in terms of KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency metric) this season and that gives them a puncher's chance against this explosive BYU offense. Also note that UCF is comfortable playing at a fast pace, which is obviously the Cougars preferred tempo. While BYU did take both regular season meetings, both of those contests went right down to the wire. Note that UCF is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 games as a neutral court underdog of six points or less including a 2-0 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, BYU is 19-23 ATS in its last 42 contests as a neutral court favorite of six points or less. The Cougars are also just 6-11 ATS in their last 17 games following a home win over a conference foe, as is the case here, including a 2-4 ATS record in that spot this season. Take UCF (8*). | |||||||
03-12-24 | Bucks v. Kings +2.5 | Top | 94-129 | Win | 100 | 16 h 13 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over Milwaukee at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Bucks picked up a much-needed win over the Clippers on Sunday, snapping their brief two-game losing streak to open their current four-game road trip. I look for them to stumble on Tuesday, however, as they head to Sacramento to face the revenge-minded Kings. Sacramento has undoubtedly had this rematch circled on its calendar after dropping a heart-breaking 143-142 decision in Milwaukee on January 14th. The Kings enter this contest off a home loss against the Rockets which marked their second straight ATS defeat. Note that Sacramento is still 17-12 on its home floor this season. The Kings continue to do an excellent job of limiting their opponents scoring opportunities, holding an incredible 16 of their last 19 foes to fewer than 90 field goal attempts and three of their last four to 84 or fewer. Despite the poor showing against Houston last time out, Sacramento has still knocked down 52 or more field goals in two of its last three contests. Milwaukee on the other hand has allowed all three opponents on its current trip to get off at least 90 field goal attempts. In fact, the Clippers hoisted up 104 field goal attempts against the Bucks on Sunday. Note that Milwaukee is a long-term 73-80 ATS when coming off a win including an 18-22 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the Kings are 19-9 ATS in their last 28 contests following an upset loss at home including a 7-3 ATS record in that spot this season. Better still, they're 34-12 ATS in their last 46 games following consecutive ATS losses including 9-1 ATS this season. Take Sacramento (10*). | |||||||
03-12-24 | Gonzaga v. St. Mary's UNDER 139.5 | Top | 60-69 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
West Coast Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Gonzaga and St. Mary's at 9 pm et on Tuesday. The 'under' has cashed in the last three meetings in this rivalry series going back to last year's WCC Tournament championship game. I expect more of the same on Tuesday. We know what St. Mary's approach to this game will be. The Gaels will look to slow the pace to a crawl, noting that they rank 358th (out of 362 Division I teams) in terms of adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. St. Mary's enters this contest having held 25 of its last 29 opponents to 56 or fewer field goal attempts. Gonzaga enters on an offensive tear but it's not as if the Bulldogs are really pushing the pace. They've gotten off 61 or fewer field goal attempts in four straight games including 58 against St. Mary's on March 2nd. Note that the 'under' is 7-5 with Gonzaga coming off an 'over' result this season, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 10-4 in St. Mary's last 14 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent including a 3-1 mark in that situation this season. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-12-24 | Ducks -103 v. Blackhawks | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Anaheim over Chicago at 8:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Ducks are coming off consecutive lopsided losses on home ice against the Stars and Islanders. I look for them to bounce back as they take a rare step down in class on the road against the Blackhawks on Tuesday. Anaheim actually sits 10 points clear of basement-dwelling Chicago in the Western Conference standings. Here, the Ducks will be looking to avenge an earlier 1-0 loss in Chicago suffered back in December. Note that Anaheim is 6-8 but +3.6 net games when seeking revenge for a loss in which it scored one goal or less in this season. The Ducks are also a long-term 64-53 (+19 net games) after scoring two goals or less in four straight games, as is the case here, including a 3-2 (+2.4 net games) mark in that situation over the last three seasons. The Blackhawks delivered a 7-4 home win over the Coyotes on Sunday. That was their second win in their last three contests but both of those victories came over Arizona. Chicago is a miserable 3-15 (-10 net games) in its last 18 games following a win by three goals or more including an 0-3 mark in that situation this season. In fact, the Blackhawks are 1-15 when coming off a win of any kind this season including an 0-4 mark when that win came against a division opponent. Take Anaheim (10*). | |||||||
03-12-24 | New Hampshire v. Vermont -13.5 | Top | 59-66 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 21 m | Show |
America East Game of the Year. My selection is on Vermont minus the points over New Hampshire at 5 pm et on Tuesday. Vermont escaped with a four-point win the last time these two teams squared off in New Hampshire just last week, failing to sniff out a cover as a nine-point favorite. I don't expect the Catamounts to face nearly as much resistance in this quick rematch in America East Tournament semi-final action on Tuesday. Note that New Hampshire is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games following a double-digit victory in-conference, as is the case here, including an 0-1 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Wildcats are also just 6-8 ATS in their last 14 games when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent. Meanwhile, Vermont is 24-19 ATS in its last 43 contests following consecutive ATS losses including a 12-7 ATS mark in that spot over the last three seasons. Better still, the Catamounts are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games when coming off consecutive straight-up wins but ATS defeats, which is the situation here. Take Vermont (10*). | |||||||
03-11-24 | Santa Clara v. St. Mary's -9.5 | Top | 65-79 | Win | 100 | 26 h 58 m | Show |
West Coast Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on St. Mary's minus the points over Santa Clara at 9 pm et on Monday. St. Mary's nearly let Santa Clara off the hook the last time these two teams met in late January. In that game, the Gaels built a seemingly insurmountable 22-point halftime lead before escaping with an 82-77 home victory. Keep in mind, the first matchup this season was no contest as St. Mary's rolled to a 73-49 road win. The Broncos will have the Gaels full attention for this WCC Tournament semi-final matchup on Monday. The last time we saw St. Mary's it fell by a 70-57 score in its regular season finale against Gonzaga. It has had over a week to chew on that double-digit defeat and as a result I expect to see a bit of a sling-shot effect from the Gaels on Monday. While St. Mary's does play at an extremely slow pace (it ranks 358th out of 362 Division I teams in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom), it is also very efficient, ranking inside the nation's top-50 in adjusted offensive efficiency (also according to KenPom). For its part, Santa Clara ranks 114th in the same category. The Broncos play fast but I think it works against them in this semi-final showdown. Take St. Mary's (10*). | |||||||
03-11-24 | Suns v. Cavs +6.5 | 117-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Phoenix at 7:40 pm et on Monday. The Cavs go from being seven-point favorites last night against the Nets to just shy of seven-point underdogs on Monday as they host the Suns in the second of a back-to-back situation. Phoenix dropped a 10-point decision at home against the Celtics on Saturday. While the Suns are expected to welcome Devin Booker back for Monday's game, I'm still not high on their offense noting they've been held to 44 or fewer made field goals in 12 straight games. On the flip side, Phoenix has been playing far too loose defensively, allowing an incredible 17 straight and 23 of its last 25 opponents to hoist up at least 90 field goal attempts with each of its last six foes getting off at least 94 (one game was aided by overtime against Denver). Cleveland is missing a number of key contributors right now but off last night's embarrassing beatdown at home against Brooklyn I do expect a positive response on Monday. Note that the Cavaliers have held six straight and 16 of their last 19 foes to 43 or fewer made field goals. Their offense has struggled without Donovan Mitchell but again there should be no shortage of scoring opportunities based on tonight's opponent. The Suns check in a long-term 53-53 ATS when laying between 3.5 and 9.5 points, as is the case here at the time of writing, but just 12-19 ATS in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the Cavs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss by 15 points or more including a 2-1 ATS mark in that spot this season. Take Cleveland (8*). | |||||||
03-11-24 | Montana State v. Weber State -6 | Top | 91-82 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
Big Sky Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Weber State minus the points over Montana State at 7:30 pm et on Monday. The door is wide open for the likes of Weber State and Montana after Sacramento State and Idaho State pulled off stunning upsets in Big Sky Tournament action over the weekend. I like Weber State in particular as it draws a quick revenge matchup against Montana State on Monday. Just one week ago, Montana State delivered a 76-64 win over Weber State as it quite simply shot the lights out on its home floor (29 made field goals including 13 from three-point range on just 55 field goal attempts). Keep in mind, earlier in the season the Wildcats rolled to an 86-64 win over the Bobcats. That victory over Weber State last week marked just a third win over its last nine contests for Montana State. Meanwhile, the Wildcats suffered just their second defeat in their last 10 games. KenPom has Weber State ranked a respectable 144th in the country while Montana State checks in 241st (out of 362 Division I teams). The Bobcats play at a reasonably fast pace but aren't generally all that efficient offensively - their last game notwithstanding - and I think that will play into this one getting away from them in short order. Weber State appeared in nine postseason tournaments in 11 years from 06-07 to 16-17 including three NCAA Tournaments but has gone through a dry spell since. With two of the Wildcats biggest roadblocks going down, the opportunity presents itself to go dancing this year and I look for them to take a step in that direction on Monday. Take Weber State (10*). | |||||||
03-10-24 | 76ers +5.5 v. Knicks | 79-73 | Win | 100 | 22 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over New York at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. The Knicks are coming off a rout of the Magic on Friday while the 76ers had their comeback fall just short in a loss to the Pelicans. I look for Philadelphia to bounce back on Sunday as it hits the road to face New York. Note that the 76ers have held seven of their last nine opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals. In fact, they've limited eight of their last nine opponents to 86 or fewer field goal attempts. Despite the win on Friday, New York has knocked down 42 or fewer field goals in 12 straight games. On the flip side, the Knicks have been inconsistent defensively, allowing two of its last four foes to connect on exactly 44 field goals. The 76ers are a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last eight games played with double-revenge, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the Knicks are just 12-25 ATS in their alst 37 games played at home with the total set between 210 and 219.5 points including an 0-7 ATS mark in that situation this season. Take Philadelphia (8*). | |||||||
03-10-24 | Wizards v. Heat UNDER 229 | Top | 110-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
Southeast Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Miami at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. The Heat enter this game off consecutive 'under' results but that's not of major concern noting they've had five previous 'under' streaks last longer. While Miami has dropped back-to-back games it remains in excellent form defensively. The Heat have held an incredible 15 of their last 16 opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. Meanwhile, the Wizards check in having knocked down 43 or fewer field goals in three straight and six of their last nine contests. On the flip side, Miami isn't likely to push the pace, even against a matador-like Wizards defense. the Heat have hoisted up 88 or fewer field goal attempts in 10 straight and 19 of their last 22 games. They've connected on more than 42 field goals just once in their last six contests. Note that the 'under' is 45-38 in Washington's last 83 games played with double-revenge including a 17-15 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 27-24 in Miami's last 51 home games with the total set at 220 points or higher including a 12-9 record in that spot this season. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-10-24 | Arkansas State v. Appalachian State -4.5 | Top | 67-65 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
Sun Belt Conference Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on Appalachian State minus the points over Arkansas State at 6 pm et on Sunday. Arkansas State just missed my card on Sunday and it was a mistake leaving the Red Wolves off as they rolled to a 27-point rout of Louisiana-Lafayette to advance to the semi-final round of the Sun Belt Conference Tournament. I expect the shoe to be on the other foot on Sunday, however, as the Red Wolves are likely to be overmatched by the Mountaineers. Appalachian State needed overtime to get past Georgia Southern yesterday. The Mountaineers got a little ahead of themselves in that game thinking the Eagles were going to roll over down by double-digits at halftime. That wasn't the case and Appalachian State needed a late push in overtime to secure the victory. After that scare, I expect the Mountaineers to turn in a complete effort on Sunday. They're a much better defensive team than they showed in the second half of yesterday's game, checking in ranked 29th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. Arkansas State does boast the 67th ranked offense in the country (according to KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency rankings) but I question whether it used up everything it had in the tank yesterday, knocking down 34-of-68 field goal attempts in the victory over Louisiana-Lafayette. The Ragin' Cajuns didn't pose any sort of offensive threat in that contest, notably making good on just 3-of-15 three-point attempts. Appalachian State elected not to involve the three-point game yesterday, attempting just 10 shots from beyond the arc. Keep in mind, the Mountaineers made good on 8-of-17 three-point attempts in an 80-57 rout of the Red Wolves just last week. Take Appalachian State (10*). | |||||||
03-09-24 | Stars v. Kings -114 | 4-1 | Loss | -114 | 15 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Dallas at 10:35 pm et on Saturday. The Stars rolled to a 6-2 win in Anaheim last night, assuring themselves of a winning three-game road trip after securing a victory in San Jose two nights earlier. Here, I look for Dallas to stumble as it wraps up its trip in Los Angeles on Saturday. Note that the Stars are just 8-12 (-5.8 net games) the last 20 times they've played a second road game in as many nights. They're also 9-15 (-11.8 net games) after winning their previous game by four goals or more and a long-term 60-89 (-63.8 net games) in their last 149 contests following four straight victories, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the Kings check in off an overtime win over Ottawa two nights ago. They're 15-7 (+9.5 net games) in their last 22 contests following an overtime victory. Los Angeles is also 41-26 (+17.6 net games) in its last 67 games when seeking revenge for a same season loss against an opponent, which is the situation here. Take Los Angeles (8*). | |||||||
03-09-24 | Jazz +12.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 121-142 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
Northwest Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Utah plus the points over Denver at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. The Nuggets are coming off a key bounce-back win over the Celtics at home two nights ago. That came on the heels of an overtime loss at home against the Suns two nights earlier. Utah is reeling having lost nine of its last 11 games but has played competitive basketball lately, recording three straight ATS wins entering Saturday's contest. On a positive note, the Jazz have held seven straight opponents to 46 or fewer made field goals. That may not seem like much of an accomplishment but given how they had been playing previously it's a step in the right direction. They're missing some key contributors offensively but have managed to knock down 42, 49 and 44 field goals over their last three games and should get Keyonte George back from a one-game absence on Saturday. I don't think Denver is well-positioned to cover too many big spreads like this given it has connected on 45 or fewer field goals in three of its last four and seven of its last 11 contests. Note that the Jazz are 14-7 ATS in their last 21 games following a SU loss but ATS victory, as is the case here, including a 5-2 ATS mark in that situation this season. Utah is also 19-15 ATS in its last 34 contests following three straight ATS wins, including a 7-3 ATS record in that spot this season. Meanwhile, Denver is a middling 15-16 ATS in its last 31 games as a double-digit favorite including 5-6 ATS this season. The Nuggets are just 11-14 ATS in their last 25 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent in which they were a road favorite, which is the situation here, going 4-6 ATS in that spot this season. Finally, Denver is a long-term 73-82 ATS following a win including 18-22 ATS this season. Take Utah (10*). | |||||||
03-09-24 | Celtics -5.5 v. Suns | Top | 117-107 | Win | 100 | 24 h 37 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Boston minus the points over Phoenix at 8:40 pm et on Saturday. The Celtics are off to an 0-2 start on their current road trip with consecutive close losses coming at the hands of the Cavaliers and Nuggets. I look for them to 'get right' on Saturday as they continue their trip in Phoenix. The Suns are just 2-6 ATS over their last eight games. Their offense remains a bit of a mess with Devin Booker still sounding like he's a game or two away from returning. Note that Phoenix has been held to 44 or fewer made field goals in 11 straight games. On the flip side, the Suns continue to give up way too many scoring opportunities. They've allowed 90 or more field goal attempts in an incredible 16 straight games. The Celtics figure to take advantage. Despite being held to just 39 and 41 made field goals in the first two games of their current road trip, they've averaged 43 made field goals on 90 field goal attempts per game on the road this season. Note that Boston is a long-term 54-28 ATS in its last 82 games following consecutive losses by six points or less, as is the case here, including a 4-2 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, Phoenix is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games as a home underdog of six points or less including an 0-4 ATS record in that spot this season. Take Boston (10*). | |||||||
03-09-24 | Georgia Tech +8.5 v. Virginia | Top | 57-72 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 36 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on Georgia Tech plus the points over Virginia at 8 pm et on Saturday. This is quite simply a case of two teams heading in opposite directions as Georgia Tech comes in having won four of its last five games SU and five of its last six ATS while Virginia has dropped the cash in five of its last six contests, winning outright only twice over that stretch. The Yellow Jackets faced the Cavaliers at their best back in mid-January as Virginia was in the midst of an eight-game winning streak. Meanwhile, that loss against Virginia marked the first of three straight defeats and part of a 2-12 stretch overall. Note that Georgia Tech is 52-47 ATS in its last 99 games as a road underdog of between 6.5 and 12 points including a 3-2 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Yellow Jackets are also a long-term 97-80 ATS when seeking revenge for a loss in which their opponent scored 75 points or more, as is the case here, including a 5-1 ATS record in that spot this season. Virginia is a woeful 8-25 ATS in its last 33 contests following a loss by 20 points or more in-conference. Take Georgia Tech (10*). | |||||||
03-09-24 | Flyers v. Lightning -135 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 22 h 50 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. The Flyers are coming off a 2-1 road win over the Panthers on Thursday while the Lightning dropped a 6-3 decision at home against the Flames. I look for the Bolts to bounce back on Saturday as they try to stay in the mix in the Eastern Conference playoff race. Tampa Bay travelled to Philadelphia and dropped a 6-2 decision on February 27th. That was a revenge game for the Flyers after the Lightning skated to a 6-3 win in Philly in January. Here, the shoe is on the other foot and we'll note that Tampa Bay is 14-8 (+3.6 net games) in its last 22 games when seeking revenge for a road loss by four goals or more including a 4-1 (+3.4 net games) mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the Flyers are just 13-29 (-14.4 net games) in their last 42 games after allowing one goal or less in their previous contest and 1-6 (-5 net games) in their last seven games after holding three straight opponents to two goals or less, as is the case here. Finally, we'll note that Philadelphia hasn't won consecutive games in this series since back in 2017. Take Tampa Bay (10*). | |||||||
03-09-24 | North Carolina v. Duke -5.5 | 84-79 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Duke minus the points over North Carolina at 6:30 pm et on Saturday. The Tar Heels took the first matchup between these two teams this season back on February 3rd and that game wasn't particularly close as they led by double-digits at halftime and cruised the rest of the way. I look for the Blue Devils to answer back at Cameron Indoor on Saturday. You'd be hard-pressed to find a team playing better offensive basketball than Duke right now as it has connected on 32, 30 and 32 field goals over its last three games. On the flip side, I like how the Blue Devils have been frustrating the opposition at the defensive end of the floor, holding each of their last four opponents to 56 or fewer field goal attempts. The Tar Heels offense has been on point as well but hasn't proven to travel all that well this season. Note that North Carolina has connected on 25 or fewer field goals in seven of its nine true road games this season. That likely has something to do with the fact that it's more difficult for the Tar Heels to play at their preferred up-tempo pace away from home. Note that Duke ranks 242nd in the country in terms of adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. North Carolina is just 25-39 ATS in its last 64 games as a road underdog of six points or less including a 2-7 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons. The Tar Heels are also just 10-12 ATS in their last 22 contests following a win by 30 points or more in-conference, as is the case here, including an 0-1 ATS record in that spot this season. Meanwhile, Duke is 40-36 ATS in its last 76 games following three straight ATS wins as a favorite, which is the situation here, including a 4-2 ATS mark this season. The Blue Devils are a long-term 215-180 ATS as a home favorite including an 11-6 ATS record this season. Take Duke (8*). | |||||||
03-09-24 | Kansas v. Houston -8 | 46-76 | Win | 100 | 20 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston minus the points over Kansas at 4 pm et on Saturday. The Jayhawks blasted the Cougars 78-65 in the previous meeting between these two teams this season but that was in Lawrence. Here, Kansas comes in feeling pretty good about itself after a 22-point rout of rival Kansas State on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Houston has dropped the cash in three straight games. Note that the Cougars are a long-term 128-116 when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent. Better still, they're 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent as a road favorite, as is the case here. Kansas is just 13-15 ATS in its last 28 road games including a 3-5 ATS mark away from home this season. Take Houston (8*). | |||||||
03-08-24 | Red Wings -125 v. Coyotes | 0-4 | Loss | -125 | 25 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit over Arizona at 9:05 pm et on Friday. This game is a must for the Red Wings as they try to snap a three-game losing streak and bounce back from Wednesday's 7-2 drubbing at the hands of the Avalanche. Despite that setback, the Red Wings remain a respectable 15-15 on the road this season where they've averaged 3.3 goals per contest. Note that Detroit is a long-term 23-19 (+8.6 net games) in its last 42 contests when coming off a loss by five goals or more. This season, the Wings are a perfect 3-0 when coming off consecutive losses by three goals or more, as is the case here. Arizona finds itself in a difficult back-to-back situation after hosting the Wild last night. For Detroit, this trip only gets tougher with a stop in Las Vegas in a back-to-back spot on Saturday before travelling all the way back east to wrap things up with a game in Buffalo on Tuesday. Take Detroit (8*). | |||||||
03-08-24 | South Dakota v. Oral Roberts UNDER 153.5 | Top | 62-77 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
Summit League Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between South Dakota and Oral Roberts at 8 pm et on Friday. I think 'over' bettors may be trying to fit a square peg into a round hole in this particular matchup on Friday. While both teams have struggled defensively all season long, I'm not sure either team is capable of taking advantage offensively. South Dakota has drawn every bit of efficiency out of its offense down the stretch, connecting on 27 or more field goals in eight of its last nine games but it is playing with a relatively small margin for error having gotten off fewer than 60 field goal attempts in five of its last six games. It runs into an Oral Roberts squad that did play some of its best defensive basketball of the season down the stretch, limiting four of its last five foes to 26 or fewer made field goals. You would have to go back five games to find the last time the Golden Eagles allowed an opponent to get off more than 60 field goal attempts. In two regular season meetings we saw both teams hoist up at least 60 field goal attempts in both matchups yet those two games stayed 'under' the total. The 'under' is 26-20 in South Dakota's last 46 tournament games. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 43-32 in Oral Roberts last 75 tournament contests including a 6-2 mark over the last three seasons. Additionally, the 'under' is 28-13 ATS in the Golden Eagles last 41 games following an ATS loss, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-08-24 | Western Illinois v. Arkansas-Little Rock -5.5 | Top | 57-82 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
Ohio Valley Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Arkansas-Little Rock minus the points over Western Illinois at 8 pm et on Friday. Western Illinois enters this game on the heels of four straight wins but I think it's going to be in tough against Little Rock, which has reeled off nine straight victories and checks in 9-1 ATS over its last 10 contests. The problem Western Illinois is facing here is that it has allowed five straight opponents to get off at least 63 field goal attempts. Little Rock couldn't be any hotter offensively having connected on 28 or more field goals in five straight games and should welcome the up-tempo nature of this contest, ranking inside the top-100 in the country in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. Defensively, Little Rock has been locked in lately, holding four of its last five opponents to 22 or fewer made field goals. In fact, the Trojans have limited an incredible 13 of their last 14 opponents to 25 or fewer successful field goal attempts. The Bulldogs are just 6-11 ATS in their last 17 games following a win by three points or less over a conference opponent, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the Trojans are 15-11 ATS in their last 26 contests following consecutive ATS wins as a favorite. Take Arkansas-Little Rock (10*). | |||||||
03-08-24 | Magic v. Knicks +1 | Top | 74-98 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on New York plus the points over Orlando at 7:40 pm et on Friday. Everyone is down on the Knicks right now. Perhaps rightfully so as they've lost eight of their last 11 games and could be without Jalen Brunson again on Friday as he nurses a knee injury. The Magic have to feel pretty good about themselves as they ride a five-game winning streak and are already off to a perfect 2-0 start on their current road trip. They're playing with a rather small margin for error, however, noting that they've gotten off 81 or fewer field goal attempts in five straight games and 88 or fewer in 16 of their last 17 contests. The Knicks can apply some defensive pressure here, noting they've held 14 of their last 16 opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. Offensively, New York is struggling, however it did get off a whopping 99 field goal attempts against Atlanta two nights ago. The shots simply weren't falling. Note that the Knicks have lost four straight meetings in this series and that's notable as the Magic haven't defeated them in five straight matchups since recording a six-game winning streak from 2009-2011. Orlando is just 6-10 ATS in its last 16 road games with the line set between +3 and -3, which is likely to be the case here, including a 2-5 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Magic are 5-10 ATS in their last 15 contests following a win over a division opponent. Following consecutive wins over divisional foes they've gone 0-2 ATS over the last three campaigns. Additionally, they're 13-26 ATS in their last 39 games following three consecutive double-digit victories including an 0-1 ATS record in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the Knicks are 21-17 ATS in their last 38 home games with the line set between +3 and -3 including a 5-2 ATS mark this season. They're also 27-20 ATS in their last 47 contests when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent including a 5-3 ATS record this season. Take New York (10*). | |||||||
03-07-24 | Heat v. Mavs UNDER 231.5 | Top | 108-114 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Dallas at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. The Heat have seen the 'over' cash in each of their last two games while the Mavericks are coming off a wild, high-scoring affair against the Pacers two nights ago. I expect a different story to unfold as these non-conference foes match up on Thursday in Dallas. Miami has held an incredible 13 of its last 14 opponents to 42 made field goals or less. In fact, the Heat have limited three of their last four opponents to fewer than 40 successful field goal attempts. You would have to go back six games to find the last time Miami allowed an opponent to get off 90 or more field goal attempts. On the flip side, the Heat have connected on at least 46 field goals just twice since December 6th. They've gone eight straight games without hoisting up 90 or more field goal attempts. We know what the Mavs are all about and that's offense. With that said, they've made good on 45 of fewer field goals in three straight and five of their last seven contests. On the flip side, Dallas has struggled defensively this season. However, it has generally bounced back following exceptionally poor performances and that's the situation it is in on Thursday after allowing Indiana to make good on 50 field goals last time out. On five previous occasions this season, the Mavs have yielded at least 50 made field goals and in their next contest they've held the opposition to an average of just 43.6 with the 'under' going 3-2. Note that the 'under' is 30-21 in the Heat's last 51 road games with the total set at 220 points or higher and 19-14 in their last 33 contests following consecutive home wins, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is a long-term 65-54 with the Mavs playing at home and 9-7 in their last 16 contests after allowing 135 points or more in their previous game. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-07-24 | Flames v. Lightning -140 | 6-3 | Loss | -140 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Calgary at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Flames have taken consecutive meetings in this series but both of those games were played in Calgary. The home team has actually won seven straight matchups between these two teams and the Flames haven't prevailed in three straight meetings since way back in 1998. This is a critical homestand for the Lightning, especially after they dropped the opener against Buffalo. They did rebound with a shootout win over Montreal and have now had four days off to get ready for Calgary. Tampa Bay currently holds down the second Wild Card spot (and final playoff spot) in the Eastern Conference but has the surging Islanders and Capitals nipping at its heels, and both of those teams have multiple games-in-hand. The homestand will only get tougher for the Bolts with matchups against the Flyers and Rangers on deck. Calgary is selling prior to the trade deadline, most recently sending stud defenseman Noah Hanifin to Las Vegas on Wednesday. The Flames recently enjoyed a five-game winning streak but proceeded to drop a 4-2 decision at home against the Kraken two nights ago. Note that Calgary is just 11-19 (-18.8 net games) in its last 30 games following a loss against a division opponent. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is 35-23 (+6.3 net games) in its last 58 contests when seeking revenge for a loss by two goals or more against an opponent, as is the case here. The Bolts are also 61-36 (+14.1 net games) in their last 97 games against Western Conference foes including a 16-11 (+3.4 net games) record this season. Take Tampa Bay (8*). | |||||||
03-07-24 | Niagara -7 v. Siena | Top | 66-59 | Push | 0 | 23 h 37 m | Show |
MAAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Niagara minus the points over Siena at 7 pm et on Thursday. This is undoubtedly a game Niagara has had circled on its calendar since dropping a wild 93-88 decision at home against Siena back on January 15th. That was about as strange of a game as they come as the Saints connected on just four three-pointers but shot 62.5% from the field and knocked down a whopping 31 free throws. I wouldn't count on a repeat performance here, or anything close. Note that Siena has been held to 24 or fewer made field goals in an incredible 12 straight games. On the flip side, the Saints have allowed four straight opponents to connect on at least 27 field goals. Niagara has been struggling, dropping three straight games all in a favorite role. Note that the Purple Eagles are 21-11 ATS in their last 32 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent. They're also 35-24 ATS in their last 59 contests following three straight ATS losses including a perfect 5-0 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, Siena is just 9-10 ATS in its last 19 games following consecutive ATS victories including an 0-2 ATS record in that spot this season. The Saints are also 5-8 ATS in their last 13 games following a road defeat in which they scored fewer than 60 points. Take Niagara (10*). | |||||||
03-06-24 | Kings +2.5 v. Lakers | Top | 130-120 | Win | 100 | 26 h 48 m | Show |
Pacific Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Kings are coming off a 113-109 loss at home against the surging Bulls on Monday. I look for them to bounce back against the Lakers on Wednesday. Los Angeles delivered an impressive 116-104 victory over the Thunder on Monday. Keep in mind, the Lakers caught the Thunder on the second night of a back-to-back. What I like about the Kings is their ability to limit their opponents' scoring opportunities. Sacramento has held five straight opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts and 14 of its last 16 foes to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. On the season it has held opponents to an average of 87 field goal attempts per contest on the road. The Lakers have quite simply been shooting the lights out lately but I don't believe that is sustainable. On the flip side, Los Angeles continues to give up a boatload of scoring chances, yielding 92 or more field goal attempts in eight of their last nine and 15 of their last 17 contests. Note that the Kings are 36-18 ATS in their last 54 games following a home loss and 25-16 ATS in their last 41 contests following an upset loss. Meanwhile, the Lakers are 24-29 ATS in their last 53 games when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent, as is the case here, and 25-28 ATS in their last 53 contests as a home favorite of six points or less. Take Sacramento (10*). | |||||||
03-06-24 | Grizzlies v. 76ers UNDER 209.5 | 115-109 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Memphis and Philadelphia at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. I'm not sure they can set the total low enough in this non-conference matchup on Wednesday. Both teams are actually coming off 'over' results, oddly enough both of those games came against the Nets. With that being said, those contests totalled just 208 and 219 points, respectively so it's not as if we're talking about track meets. Memphis checks in having held three of its last four opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals and seven of its last nine foes to 42 or less. Philadelphia seems to have realized that it's not going to enjoy much success by pushing the pace, not with its current healthy personnel. The 76ers have gotten off just 88 and 82 field goal attempts over their last two games. Note that they've connected on 41 or fewer field goals in seven of their last eight contests. On the flip side, we have seen the Sixers lock-in defensively, holding eight straight and 10 of their last 11 opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. Part of that success comes from slowing the pace as I mentioned. Philadelphia has limited seven consecutive opponents to 86 or fewer field goal attempts. The undermanned Grizzlies don't figure to offer a stiff test in that regard as they've hoisted up 83 or fewer field goal attempts in four of their last five contests. Note that the 'under' is 21-18 in the Grizzlies last 39 games as a road underdog of six points or less and 41-25 in their last 66 contests after holding their previous opponent to 105 points or less, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 14-5 in Philadelphia's last 19 games with the total set between 200 and 209.5 points, which is the case at the time of writing, and 62-44 in its last 106 contests following an upset loss on the road. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
03-06-24 | Boston College v. Miami-FL OVER 151.5 | Top | 67-57 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston College and Miami at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Miami has inexplicably been idle since a week ago Monday, when it dropped a 75-71 decision on the road against North Carolina - its seventh straight defeat. Boston College enters on the heels of four straight losses but it has been making 'over' bettors happy with each of its last six contests sailing 'over' the total. I look for more of the same on Wednesday. While the Miami offense has struggled lately, it does continue to push the pace, hoisting up more than 60 field goal attempts in three straight games. The Hurricanes rank 112th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom this season. Going up against Boston College's matador-like defense should serve Miami well in this spot. The Eagles have allowed eight of their last nine opponents to make good on at least 27 field goals. Boston College ranks 173rd in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season according to KenPom, not good for a Power-5 program. On the flip side, the Eagles have been fairly consistent offensively, making good on 25 or more field goals in five of their last six games with a low-water mark of 24 made field goals over their last nine contests. Miami, like Boston College, has struggled defensively allowing its last four opponents to connect on 28, 28, 30 and 27 field goals. Note that the 'over' is 19-12 in Boston College's last 31 games as a road underdog and 16-6 in its last 22 contests when coming off a game that totalled 155 points or more, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 27-15 in Miami's last 42 games as a home favorite and 7-5 in its last 12 contests following a road loss in-conference. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
03-05-24 | San Diego State v. UNLV UNDER 136 | 58-62 | Win | 100 | 27 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Diego State and UNLV at 11 pm et on Tuesday. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled just 133 points and I believe they'll be hard-pressed to top that number in Tuesday's rematch. UNLV is quietly playing as well defensively as any team in the country right now having held five straight opponents to 21 or fewer made field goals and nine in a row to 23 or less. This matchup is right back in the Runnin' Rebels wheelhouse as San Diego State ranks 240th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom and its strength lies at the defensive end of the floor rather than on offense. The Aztecs are actually coming off a subpar defensive effort against lowly San Jose State last time out. They've had a week to stew on that performance and I'm confident we'll see their eighth ranked (in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency) defense step up again here. We've seen San Diego State hold a pair of opponents to fewer than 20 made field goals in its last five games. On the flip side, UNLV is one of the slowest teams in the country, ranking 302nd in adjusted tempo. Note that the 'under' is 33-16 in the Aztecs last 49 games with the total set in the 140's, including a 7-4 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 32-21 in their last 53 contests following consecutive victories, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 46-40 in UNLV's last 86 games when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent including a 3-1 record in that spot this season. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
03-05-24 | Pelicans v. Raptors OVER 228 | 139-98 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Toronto at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. I see this as a blow-up spot for the Pelicans offense as they come in with fresh legs having not played since Friday (they barely broke a sweat and scored 129 points in that win over Indiana) and facing a depleted Raptors squad. With that being said, the Pelicans do have a tendency to let teams stick around on the road and I think there's reason to believe the Raptors can help this total along. Toronto has allowed its last five opponents to knock down 46, 46, 52, 44 and 43 field goals. Each of those five foes managed to hoist up at least 92 field goal attempts. The Pelicans don't play particularly fast but I don't think they'll be able to resist the temptation to push the pace in this matchup (note they attempted 104 field goals in the first meeting this season, scoring 138 points). New Orleans has allowed three of its last four opponents to get off at least 95 field goal attempts so the scoring opportunities should be there for Toronto. The Raptors have at least been consistent offensively, connecting on 41 or more field goals in seven straight games. They certainly don't mind pushing the pace, hoisting up more than 90 field goal attempts in seven of their last eight contests. Note that the 'over' is a perfect 3-0 with the Pelicans playing on three or more days' rest this season and 4-1 in their last five contests following five or more consecutive 'under' results, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 3-1 in the Raptors last four games when seeking revenge for a loss by 30 or more points against an opponent. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
03-05-24 | Oilers -119 v. Bruins | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Edmonton over Boston at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. The schedule makers did the Oilers a favor in this rematch of an overtime thriller played in Edmonton two weeks ago. While the Oilers were idle on Monday giving them ample time to settle in in Boston, the Bruins were involved in a division game in Toronto, securing a 4-1 victory over the Maple Leafs. Edmonton enters this game red hot following four straight victories and it should bring confidence to the table playing in Beantown where it has won three straight meetings going back to January of 2020. In fact, the road team has prevailed in seven straight matchups in this series. Note that the Oilers are 28-16 (+8.5 net games) in their last 44 games when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent including a 7-3 (+2.6 net games) mark in that situation this season. Better still, Edmonton is an incredible 39-7 (+28.2 net games) in its last 46 contests after allowing one goal or less in its previous game, as is the case here, including a 14-3 (+8.7 net games) record this season. The Bruins haven't been the same dominant home team they were last season, already having lost 12 games at TD Garden. This is just the first game of a four-game homestand and I look for them to struggle in this three-in-four situation. Take Edmonton (10*). | |||||||
03-04-24 | Thunder v. Lakers OVER 238.5 | 104-116 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Oklahoma City and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Monday. You would be hard-pressed to find a team playing worse defensive basketball than the Lakers right now. I'm not just talking about the short-term picture either - this has been going on for months. Los Angeles checks in having allowed nine of its last 11 and 14 of its last 18 opponents to knock down at least 45 field goals. The Lakers have been giving up scoring opportunities aplenty with seven of their last eight and 14 of their last 16 foes hoisting up at least 92 field goal attempts. Oklahoma City figures to apply plenty of pressure on Monday, noting the Thunder have knocked down 44 or more field goals in eight straight games. On the flip side, Oklahoma City has 10 straight and 13 of its last 14 opponents to get off at least 90 field goal attempts. While the Lakers defense has struggled their offense has not, connecting on 47 or more field goals in five straight games. You would have to go back 10 games to find the last time the Lakers were held to fewer than 43 made field goals. Note that the 'over' is 21-13 in the Thunder's last 34 games played on the second of back-to-back nights including a 7-2 mark in that situation this season. They've also seen the 'over' go 43-39 in their last 82 contests played with double-revenge, as is the case here, including a 6-2 record in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 66-53 in the Lakers last 119 contests following a loss including a 16-11 mark this season. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
03-04-24 | Blackhawks v. Avalanche OVER 6 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 10 m | Show |
Central Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Colorado at 9:05 pm et on Monday. The most recent matchup between these two teams last week in Chicago fizzled as the Avalanche skated to an easy 5-0 victory. While most are expecting more of the same in this quick rematch, I expect the Blackhawks to put up more of a fight. That should lend itself to a relatively high-scoring affair. While the Chicago offense has been putrid lately, it's worth noting that it's current streak of five straight games scoring two goals or less marks its longest such streak this season. Note that the 'over' is a perfect 2-0 the two previous times it has come off five straight games scoring two goals or less this season. Additionally, the 'over' is 11-8 in Chicago's last 19 games when seeking revenge for a shutout loss against an opponent. Meanwhile the Avs will be in a foul mood after dropping a 5-1 decision in Nashville on Saturday. Note that the 'over' is 17-10 in their last 27 contests after scoring one goal or less in their previous game. The 'over' is also 12-3 in their last 15 games following a road loss against a division opponent. The Blackhawks have been as generous as they come on the road this season, allowing a whopping 4.1 goals per game. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
03-04-24 | Texas v. Baylor -6.5 | Top | 85-93 | Win | 100 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
Big 12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Baylor minus the points over Texas at 9 pm et on Monday. Baylor continues to fly under the radar as a true national title contender perhaps overshadowed in a year where an expanded Big 12 boasts so many elite teams. The Bears enter this game off a dominant victory over Kansas on Saturday. They check in ranked 14th in the country according to KenPom with a unique mix of efficient but slow offense, ranking top-five in adjusted offensive efficiency but 301st in adjusted tempo. I expect that mix to frustrate Texas on Monday as the Bears look to avenge an earlier 75-73 loss against the Longhorns. Texas is in a log-jam in the middle of the Big 12 standings but it comes in satisfied following consecutive blowout wins over Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. Note that the Longhorns are just 10-16 ATS in their last 26 games as an underdog. They're 6-10 ATS in their last 16 contests following a double-digit win in-conference including a 1-3 ATS mark in that situation this season. Additionally, Texas is 13-29 ATS in its last 42 contests following consecutive victories including a 1-8 ATS record in that spot this season. Meanwhile, Baylor checks in 27-20 ATS in its last 47 games when seeking revenge for a loss by three points or less against an opponent including a perfect 2-0 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Bears are a solid positive momentum play having gone 20-16 ATS in their last 36 contests after scoring 80 points or more and 28-23 ATS in their last 51 games after an ATS victory (15-12 ATS in their last 27 after consecutive ATS wins, as is the case here). Take Baylor (10*). | |||||||
03-03-24 | Thunder -4.5 v. Suns | 118-110 | Win | 100 | 15 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City minus the points over Phoenix at 9:40 pm et on Sunday. The Suns had a rough night on Saturday. Not only did they lose to the Rockets but Jusuf Nurkic and Devin Booker were forced to leave with injuries and are questionable to return on Sunday. Regardless who is on the floor, Phoenix is having a miserable time slowing the opposition right now having allowed 90 or more field goal attempts in 13 straight and 15 of its last 16 games. That should be music to the ears of the Thunder as they look to bounce back from a surprisingly loss in San Antonio to open their four-game road trip. Oklahoma City will have the rest advantage here having not played since Thursday. The Thunder are playing as well as any team in the league offensively right now having made good on 44 or more field goals in seven straight games. The Suns have reached that number just twice in their last seven contests. It's been a struggle for Phoenix just to run its offense, hoisting up fewer than 90 field goal attempts in 17 of its last 22 games. That's not likely to cut it against an explosive Thunder offense on Sunday. For the Suns it would be easy to punt this one and get ready for a trip to Denver (they are 2-1 on their current homestand after all), especially if they're missing Nurkic and/or Booker. Meanwhile, the Thunder know that this trip is going to get tougher with a stop in Los Angeles to face the Lakers tomorrow night. Oklahoma City is 18-10 ATS in its last 28 games following an upset road loss by double-digits, as is the case here, including a 2-1 ATS mark in that situation this season. Better still, the Thunder are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 contests after giving up 130 points or more including a 3-1 ATS record this season. The Suns are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a home underdog of six points or less including an 0-3 ATS mark this season. They're also just 33-36 ATS in their last 69 contests when seeking revenge for a loss in which their opponent scored 110 points or more including a 6-10 ATS record in that spot this season. Take Oklahoma City (8*). | |||||||
03-03-24 | Jets v. Sabres UNDER 6 | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Winnipeg and Buffalo at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. These two teams combined to score 12 goals in their respective games yesterday. For the Jets, it was an incredible third period comeback as they rallied from a 3-0 deficit to defeat the Hurricanes 5-3 in Raleigh. Meanwhile, the Sabres skated to a stunning 7-2 victory over the Golden Knights. I expect a different story to unfold on Sunday. Buffalo has to figure Winnipeg is feeling pretty good about itself after scoring five unanswered third period goals yesterday. While the Sabres offense did show out on Saturday, I don't think it wants to trade goals with the Jets on Sunday. Note that Buffalo averages just 2.8 goals per game on home ice this season. It has also been quite stingy defensively on home ice, allowing an identical 2.8 goals per contest. Meanwhile, the Jets have seen their road games average only 5.3 total goals. They'll want to keep this game in front of them on Sunday after falling behind 3-0 after two periods in yesterday's contest. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 46-34 with the Jets playing on the road with the total set at 6.0 or higher. Meanwhile, Buffalo has seen the 'under' go a long-term 27-23 when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent, as is the case here. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
03-03-24 | Mt. St. Mary's v. Niagara -3 | 91-72 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Niagara minus the points over Mount St. Mary's at 2 pm et on Sunday. Niagara is in a prime bounce-back spot on Sunday as it looks to rebound following consecutive double-digit losses. The Purple Eagles already outlasted Mount St. Mary's by an 82-71 score, on the road no less, back on January 21st. Niagara has gone 2-1 SU and ATS since Mount St. Mary's joined the MAAC in 2022. The Mountaineers have won just once in their last five games and that came at home. You would have to go back four road games to find the last time they posted a victory and that came against lowly Siena - one of the worst teams in the entire country let alone the MAAC. Niagara checks in 26-15 ATS in its last 41 games following consecutive double-digit losses. That situation has only come up once in the last three seasons and the Purple Eagles delivered the cash on that occasion as well. They're 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games after consecutive ATS losses including a 2-1 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, Mount St. Mary's is 5-9 ATS in its last 14 contests after allowing 65 points or less in consecutive games, as is the case here, including an 0-2 ATS record this season. Take Niagara (8*). | |||||||
03-02-24 | Rockets v. Suns OVER 228.5 | Top | 118-109 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 35 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Phoenix at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. | |||||||
03-02-24 | Blue Jackets v. Blackhawks OVER 6 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Columbus and Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. The Blackhawks offense has been putrid lately, scoring a grand total of just five goals over its last four games. A home date with the Blue Jackets might be just what it needs to get kick-started though, noting that Columbus has allowed 3.8 goals per game on the road this season and four goals or more in 13 of its last 19 games overall. The Blue Jackets have produced only three goals over their last two contests but those came against two of the league's best teams in the Rangers and Hurricanes. Here, they'll face a Blackhawks squad that has allowed at least three goals in five straight and eight of its last nine games. Interestingly, Columbus has been a better offensive team on the road compared to at home this season, averaging 3.0 goals per contest. This will be the second meeting between these two teams this season after Columbus skated to a lopsided 7-3 victory at home back in November. Note that the 'over' is 19-10 in the Blue Jackets last 29 games following consecutive losses by two goals or more against division opponents, as is the case here, including an 'over' result the only time that situation has presented itself over the last three seasons. Perhaps more notable, the 'over' is 50-29 in the Jackets last 79 contests following consecutive losses including a 15-6 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 6-1 in the Blackhawks last seven games following a shutout loss at home including a 1-0 record in that spot this season. The 'over' is also 6-3 in Chicago's last nine games following a loss by five goals or more including a 2-1 mark this season. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
03-02-24 | NC State v. North Carolina OVER 153.5 | Top | 70-79 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 59 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between North Carolina State and North Carolina at 4 pm et on Saturday. Including the first meeting this season we've now seen three straight matchups in this rivalry stay 'under' the total. Going back to the turn of the century we've seen a four-game 'under' streak in this series only once - that coming back in 2017. I'm anticipating a considerably higher-scoring affair on Saturday. The Wolfpack were not playing well offensively the last time these two teams matched up. In fact, N.C. State was mired in a shooting slump that saw it connect on fewer than 20 field goals in two of three games. It's a much different story this time around. N.C. State has connected on 26 or more field goals in eight straight games. There's reason to believe the Wolfpack will be afforded plenty of scoring opportunities in this contest as North Carolina has allowed seven of its last eight foes to hoist up more than 60 field goal attempts. On the flip side, the Wolfpack have been getting boat raced defensively in recent weeks. They've allowed 29, 27, 30, 25 and 37 made field goals over their last five contests. North Carolina checks in top-25 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and 38th in adjusted tempo, both according to KenPom. Note that the 'over' is 6-1 in N.C. State's last seven games when seeking revenge for a loss in which it scored 60 points or less, as is the case here, including a perfect 2-0 mark in that situation this season. The 'over' is also 30-23 in the Wolfpack's last 53 contests following an ATS defeat. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 62-47 in North Carolina's last 109 games following a win by six points or less including a 5-3 record in that situation over the last three seasons. The 'over' is also 26-20 in the Tar Heels last 46 games following an ATS loss including a 6-4 mark this season. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
03-02-24 | Wyoming v. Colorado State -15 | Top | 62-70 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Colorado State minus the points over Wyoming at 4 pm et on Saturday. To illustrate just how tough the Mountain West Conference is this season look no further than the fact that a team as good as Colorado State (ranked 33rd in the country according to KenPom) sits in seventh place with an even 8-8 record. The Rams enter this contest on the heels of three straight losses but I look for them to 'get right' against the Cowboys. This is a revenge game for Colorado State after it dropped a 79-76 decision on the road back on January 27th. That game saw a wide disparity at the free throw line in favor of Wyoming as it knocked down twice as many free throws as Colorado State (20-10). The script should flip in Saturday's rematch, noting that the Rams have permitted an average of just 15 trips to the charity stripe at home this season. Colorado State ranks 34th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency (according to KenPom) and checks in having held eight straight opponents to 24 or fewer made field goals, limiting half of those foes to 22 or less. Offensively, the Rams haven't been setting the world on fire and part of that is by design as they sit 271st in adjusted tempo (also according to KenPom). With that said, I see this as a breakout spot against a bad Wyoming defense that has allowed 26 or more made field goals in five of its last six and 14 of its last 16 games overall. The Cowboys rank 248th in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency. The Cowboys are just 18-27 ATS in their last 45 games following an ATS loss including a 5-10 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the Rams are 12-6 ATS in their last 18 contests when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent including a 5-2 ATS record in that spot this season. Take Colorado State (10*). | |||||||
03-02-24 | Kansas v. Baylor UNDER 145.5 | 74-82 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas and Baylor at 1 pm et on Saturday. This has predominantly been a low-scoring series with the 'under' going 17-5 in the last 22 meetings including a 64-61 Kansas victory in the first matchup this season. Despite coming off a stunning home loss against BYU, the Jayhawks have shown signs of rounding into late season form defensively, holding six of their last eight opponents to 25 or fewer made field goals and three of those foes to fewer than 20. Kansas has climbed to ninth in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. While it generally plays at a fast pace, I do think we'll see it attempt to effectively shorten proceedings on Saturday as a road underdog against revenge-minded Baylor. The Bears have had their share of breakout performances offensively but in general, remain a work-in-progress at that end of the floor where they've connected on 25 or fewer field goals in seven of their last nine contests. Note that Baylor ranks 296th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom and has gotten off 56 or fewer field goal attempts in nine straight games. Defensively, the Bears are coming off arguably their best performance of the season as they held TCU to just 17 made field goals in a 62-54 victory. Note that the 'under' is 10-5 in Kansas' last 15 games following a loss in-conference including a 4-1 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' is also a long-term 33-29 in the Jayhawks last 62 contests with the total set in the 140's including a 12-9 record in that spot this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 11-5 in Baylor's last 16 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent including a perfect 4-0 mark this season. The 'under' is also 19-14 in the Bears last 33 games following a win in-conference including a 6-2 record this season. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
03-01-24 | Wizards v. Clippers -15 | Top | 115-140 | Win | 100 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Washington at 10:40 pm et on Friday. This sets up as a smash spot for the reeling Clippers who enter this game losers of two straight and five of their last seven games overall. Los Angeles has faced a brutal stretch of opponents lately, going up against the Timberwolves, Warriors, Thunder, Grizzlies, Kings and Lakers over its last six contests. Only the date with Memphis offered any sort of reprieve and the Clippers did take advantage and win that game (albeit failing to cover the spread). Here, the Clips catch the Wizards off an 'empty the tank' overtime loss against the Lakers last night. Yes, last night's numbers were helped along by overtime but the Wizards have now allowed four of their last six opponents to make good on at least 50 field goals. They've yielded at least 47 made field goals in seven of their last nine contests. For the Clips, I believe their problems are fixable, at least in the short-term. They suffered a major collapse in the fourth quarter against the rival Lakers two nights ago, blowing a 21-point lead. They have now held each of their last four opponents to 91 or fewer field goal attempts which is a stride in the right direction after the way they had been playing previously. The Lakers quite simply went off offensively in the fourth quarter two nights ago. I don't expect the Wizards to replicate that performance here, noting that they average just 43 made field goals per contest on the road this season while the Clippers have held the opposition to an average of 41 successful field goal attempts per game at home. The Wiz are just 46-53 ATS in their last 109 games following an ATS victory including a 12-16 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Clips are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 contests following consecutive upset losses at home, as is the case here. That situation has come up just once in the last three seasons and Los Angeles did cover the spread in its next game on that occasion as well. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
03-01-24 | Fresno State v. Nevada UNDER 137.5 | Top | 66-74 | Loss | -115 | 27 h 42 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Fresno State and Nevada at 10:30 pm et on Friday. Fresno State's most recent game went 'over' the total but that was only thanks to overtime. The Bulldogs haven't seen consecutive games go 'over' since a five-game streak from January 16th to 30th. Note that they held an up-tempo Utah State team to just 47 field goal attempts in regulation time last time out. In fact, they've limited three of their last four opponents to 51 or fewer field goal attempts. While the Aggies did get their fair share of opportunities at the free throw line in Wednesday's contest, Fresno State is actually allowing just 16 free throw attempts per game this season so it's not really a recurring theme. While the Bulldogs did get loose a bit offensively against Utah State, it faces a tougher challenge on Friday with Nevada ranked 37th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 245th in adjusted tempo this season (both according to KenPom). The Wolf Pack have held seven of their last eight opponents to 25 or fewer made field goals. Fresno State has knocked down just 23 field goals per game on the road this season. As I mentioned, Nevada's preferred pace is slow, noting that it hasn't hoisted up 60 or more field goal attempts in a game since February 2nd against a matador-like defense in San Jose State. The 'under' is 10-8 in Fresno State's last 18 games when seeking revenge for a loss in which it scored 60 points or less against an opponent, as is the case here, including a 4-2 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 23-18 in Nevada's last 41 contests following an 'over' result including a 7-3 record in that situation this season. The 'under' is also a long-term 50-39 in Nevada's last 89 games after scoring 75 points or more in three straight games. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-01-24 | Southern Miss v. UL - Lafayette -7 | Top | 61-77 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Louisiana-Lafayette minus the points over Southern Miss at 8:30 pm et on Friday. Louisiana-Lafayette has inexplicably gone in the tank dropping four straight games both SU and ATS entering Friday's regular season finale against Southern Miss. Included in that four-game slide was a stunning 82-71 loss at Southern Miss last Saturday. I look for the Ragin' Cajuns to break out of their funk and exact some swift revenge on their home floor on Friday. The Golden Eagles have done well to hang onto sixth place in the Sun Belt Conference standings - tied with the Ragin' Cajuns, in fact. They've certainly had some good fortune along the way. Note that KenPom has them ranked 224th nationally but 47th in terms of its 'luck rating' metric. I simply feel we'll see Southern Miss' defense get overwhelmed in this particular spot. Note that the Eagles have allowed 25 or more made field goals in nine of their last 11 games with six of their last nine foes hoisting up more than 60 field goal attempts. That should be music to the ears of the Ragin' Cajuns shooters, noting that Louisiana-Lafayette is desperate for a breakout and plays fast having gotten off 64 or more field goal attempts in four of its last five contests. Defensively, the Ragin' Cajuns have admittedly been inconsistent lately but have limited four of their last six opponents to 24 or fewer made field goals. They rank a respectable 140th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom despite playing fast, checking in 118th in the nation in adjusted tempo. Note that Southern Miss is 0-9 ATS as a road underdog of between 6.5 and 9.0 points over the last three seasons including an 0-2 ATS mark in that situation this season. Louisiana-Lafayette is 18-13 ATS in its last 31 contests as a home favorite including a 6-4 ATS record this season. Take Louisiana-Lafayette (10*). | |||||||
03-01-24 | Flyers v. Capitals UNDER 6 | 2-5 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams were in need of a chance to catch their breath after a couple of wild, high-scoring contests and they both got just that with consecutive days off leading up to this key divisional showdown. Note that the Capitals have two games-in-hand on the Flyers and sit just six points behind them in the Metropolitan Division standings. Needless to say, this game has 'playoff-like atmosphere' written all over it (I admittedly hate that cliche). While the Flyers have scored a whopping 12 goals in their last two games they average just 3.0 goals per game on the season. For our purposes, they've been quite stingy defensively on the road, allowing only 2.8 goals per contest. Meanwhile, the Capitals check in averaging just 2.6 goals per game on the season with that number rising to just 2.7 at home. While the 'over' did cash in the most recent matchup between these two teams we haven't seen consecutive 'over' results in this series since a four-game streak back in 2021. Note that the 'under' is 27-16 in the Flyers last 43 games played on two days' rest including a 9-3 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 8-5 in Philadelphia's last 13 contests following consecutive games that totalled at least eight goals including a 2-1 record in that spot this season. The 'under' is 33-14 in the Caps last 47 contests after losing their previous game by five goals or more, as is the case here. That situation has presented itself just three times in the last three seasons (all three occurring this season in fact) with the 'under' going 2-1. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
02-29-24 | Gonzaga v. San Francisco UNDER 155.5 | 86-68 | Win | 100 | 29 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Gonzaga and San Francisco at 11 pm et on Thursday. The 'under' has cashed in three of four meetings between these two teams going back to the start of last season including the lone previous matchup this year. With this game being played at the Chase Center in San Francisco, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring contest than most. San Francisco has played just once previously on this court this season, securing a 76-58 win over Minnesota back in November. The Golden Gophers had a miserable time trying to break through against the Dons defense in that game, connecting on just 22-of-50 field goal attempts. Note that San Francisco ranks 42nd in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season (according to KenPom). The Dons also check in just 202nd in adjusted tempo. They're certainly locked-in defensively right now having held three straight opponents to 22 or fewer made field goals and eight of their last nine foes to 25 or fewer. Gonzaga obviously likes to play much faster and is currently on an incredible offensive tear. With that being said, there shouldn't be any intimidation factor at play here as San Francisco has held it to just 27 and 24 made field goals in the last two meetings. Note that the 'under' is 15-13 in Gonzaga's last 28 games played on a neutral court including a 4-1 mark this season. The 'under' is also 12-7 in the Zags last 19 games following consecutive double-digit wins over conference opponents, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 14-4 in San Francisco's last 18 contests played on a neutral court including a 3-1 mark this season. The 'under' is also 13-8 in the Dons last 21 games after a home win in which they scored 85 points or more. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
02-29-24 | Jets v. Stars UNDER 6 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Winnipeg and Dallas at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. The Jets got off to a fast start scoring three goals in the first period and cruised to a 4-2 win over the Blues two nights ago. Now they head out on the road for a matchup against the Stars who will be bent on bouncing back following a 5-1 drubbing in Colorado on Tuesday. Winnipeg has been as stingy as they come defensively on the road this season, holding the opposition to just 2.4 goals per game. In fact, Jets road games have averaged only 5.2 total goals. That's a stark contrast to Dallas' play at home where it has averaged 4.0 goals per contest while giving up 3.4. With that being said, the Stars are really struggling offensively right now. They've scored two goals or less in five straight games and three or fewer in seven consecutive matchups. They enter this game riding a five-game 'under' streak. Note that the 'under' is 48-38 in the Jets last 86 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent, as is the case here, including a 12-7 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 22-10 in Winnipeg's last 32 contests after scoring four goals or more in consecutive games including a 5-2 record in that spot this season. While you might think the Stars 'under' streak is due to turn they've actually seen the 'under' go 47-38 in their last 85 contests following five straight 'under' results including a 12-5 mark in that situation over the last three seasons. The 'under' is also a long-term 20-12 in Dallas' last 32 games after being held to two goals or less in five straight games. That situation has come up just once in the last three seasons and the 'under' prevailed on that occasion as well. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
02-29-24 | Hawks v. Nets UNDER 223.5 | 97-124 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. The Hawks enter this game riding a four-game 'under' streak while the Nets have seen each of their last five contests stay 'under' the total. I look for those streaks to continue on Thursday. Atlanta is obviously a different team without Trae Young. In two games since his injury, the Hawks have actually knocked down 41 and 46 field goals but got off 90 or more field goal attempts in both of those contests. It's defensively where Atlanta has really turned it up, allowing just 35 made field goals in each of its last two games. The Hawks catch a plum draw here with the Nets reeling offensively. Brooklyn has knocked down fewer than 40 field goals in five of its last six games and 41 or less in eight of its last 10 contests. In fact, it's been a struggle for the Nets just getting shots off let alone knocking them down. They check in having hoisted up 81 or fewer field goal attempts in four of their last six games. With that being said, Brooklyn has at least been slowing the opposition, allowing 84 or fewer field goal attempts in four straight games. Meanwhile, the Hawks aren't quite the same offensive team on the road compared to at home. They have made good on 40, 42, 40, 36, 39, 43, 42 and 36 field goals over their last eight road contests. The 'under' is 17-15 in the Hawks last 32 games following a double-digit home win including a 3-1 mark in that situation this season. Brooklyn has seen the 'under' go 12-9 in its last 21 contests following a loss by 20 points or more including a 5-2 record in that spot this season. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
02-28-24 | Lakers v. Clippers OVER 235.5 | Top | 116-112 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between the Lakers and Clippers at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. Opponents are walking all over the Lakers right now, getting off 93 or more field goal attempts in each of their last five and 12 of their last 13 games overall. The Clippers should be salivating at the opportunity for an offensive breakout here after being held to 42 or fewer made field goals in six of their last seven games. Paul George won't be in the lineup for the Clips on Wednesday but I still expect them to thrive offensively against a Lakers squad that has been lit up for 44 or more made field goals in 12 of its last 15 games. On the flip side, the Lakers have connected on more than 40 field goals in eight straight games and 47 or more in five of those contests. The Clippers have surprisingly been matador-like defensively in recent weeks, allowing four straight and 12 of their last 16 opponents to hoist up at least 90 field goal attempts. Note that the 'over' is 35-17 in the Lakers last 52 road games with the total set at 230 points or higher including a crisp 15-3 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 32-25 in the Clippers last 57 contests following an upset loss against a division opponent, as is the case here, including a 4-1 record in that situation over the last three seasons. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
02-28-24 | Virginia +1.5 v. Boston College | 72-68 | Win | 100 | 14 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Virginia plus the points over Boston College at 9 pm et on Wednesday. I see this as a 'get right' spot for the reeling Cavaliers as they look to snap their two-game losing streak and cover the spread for the first time in five games. Even in Saturday's double-digit loss to North Carolina, Virginia still held the Tar Heels to just 16 made field goals. In fact, the Cavaliers have allowed only two of their last 12 opponents to knock down more than 24 field goals. It's been the Virginia offense that has struggled lately but this is a favorable matchup in that regard. Boston College has been matador-like defensively in recent weeks, allowing its last seven foes to make good on 30, 28, 30, 30, 27, 28 and 27 field goals. Virginia did drop the most recent meeting in this series last February but it was four straight wins prior to that and the Cavaliers haven't lost consecutive matchups with the Eagles since 2011. Note that Virginia is 7-4 ATS in its last 11 games on the road with the line set between +3 and -3 including a 2-1 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, Boston College is 8-10 ATS in its last 18 contests after giving up 80 points or more in its previous game including a 2-6 ATS record in that situation this season. Take Virginia (8*). | |||||||
02-28-24 | Blues v. Oilers UNDER 6.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Edmonton at 8:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Blues are reeling right now, losers of four of their last five games as they try to hang on in the Western Conference playoff race. They gave up three first period goals before settling down and eventually dropping a 4-2 decision in Winnipeg last night. Note that scoring has been a problem for the Blues on the road this season where they average just 2.6 goals per game. Meanwhile, the Oilers have been relatively stingy at home where they've held the opposition to just 2.9 goals per contest. Note that the 'under' is 21-18 in St. Louis' last 39 games following a loss against a division opponent including an incredible 9-2 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 15-13 with the Blues coming off consecutive losses by two goals or more, as is the case here, including a 6-1 record in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 24-15 in the Oilers last 39 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent in which it scored five goals or more, which is the situation there after the Blues secured a 6-3 victory over them back on February 15th. That situation has cashed at a 9-5 clip this season. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
02-28-24 | Cavs v. Bulls UNDER 216.5 | 123-132 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Cavaliers were involved in a high-scoring barn-burner at home against the Mavericks last night, securing a 121-119 victory thanks to a last season Max Strus heave. It wasn't a banner performance defensively from Cleveland but there's reason to believe we'll see it bounce back in that regard on Wednesday. Note that last night marked only the 11th time all season the Cavs allowed an opponent to knock down 45 or more field goals. On the 10 previous occasions, they allowed an average of just 37.5 made field goals in their next contest. The Bulls aren't exactly thriving offensively right now as they've connected on 40 or fewer field goals in three of their last four games. In fact, it's been tough enough for them to just get shots off let alone knock them down, hoisting up 83 or fewer field goal attempts in three of their last four contests. On the flip side, Chicago does check in having held eight of its last 10 foes to 42 or fewer made field goals. You would have to go back five games to find the last time the Bulls allowed an opponent to get off more than 88 field goal attempts. Meanwhile, the Cavs have knocked down 44 or fewer field goals in six straight contests. The 'under' is 59-51 in the Cavs last 110 road games including a 17-10 mark this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 31-16 in the Bulls last 47 division games including a 7-4 record this season. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
02-28-24 | Oklahoma v. Iowa State -10 | 45-58 | Win | 100 | 24 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Iowa State minus the points over Oklahoma at 8 pm et on Wednesday. Iowa State has undoubtedly had this game circled on its calendar since dropping a 71-63 decision on the road against Oklahoma back in early January. Since then the Cyclones have gone on a tear, going 10-3 SU and 9-3-1 ATS over its last 13 games. With that being said, they enter Wednesday's rematch having failed to deliver the cash in consecutive games. I look for that to change here. Iowa State is locked-in defensively right now having held seven straight and nine of its last 10 opponents to 24 or fewer made field goals. That's in stark contrast to the Sooners who have allowed 28, 26 and 35 made field goals over their last three contests, albeit aided by overtime in their most recent game. Speaking of that most recent game, it was a big one for Oklahoma as it went on the road and staged a minor upset win over rival Oklahoma State. Note that the Sooners are just 21-24 ATS in their last 45 games following an upset win on the road including a 2-4 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons (0-2 ATS this season). They're also just 16-27 ATS in their last 43 contests following a win by three points or less in-conference. Meanwhile, Iowa State is 40-26 ATS in its last 66 contests off a home victory but non-cover including a 9-3 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons. The Cyclones have been an excellent positive momentum play having gone 36-24 ATS in their last 60 games following a win including a 13-6 ATS mark when coming off a victory this season. Take Iowa State (8*). | |||||||
02-27-24 | Nevada v. Colorado State UNDER 139.5 | Top | 77-74 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 46 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Nevada and Colorado State at 11:30 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a considerably higher posted total the last time these two teams met on January 24th. That game ultimately stayed 'under' that number but did go higher than the total we're working with on Tuesday. I still don't feel the oddsmakers have made enough of an adjustment. Nevada saw its last game go 'over' the total thanks to an offensive outburst against a miserable San Jose State defense. Note that the Wolf Pack are locked-in defensively right now having held three straight and five of their last six opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals. Colorado State doesn't figure to push the pace on Nevada, noting that the Rams rank 271st in the country in adjusted tempo this season (according to KenPom). Speaking of being locked-in defensively, the Rams have climbed into the top-25 in adjusted defensive efficiency (also according to KenPom) thanks to a stretch that has seen them limit seven straight foes to 24 or fewer made field goals. Nevada checks in just 241st in adjusted tempo and has hoisted up 58 or fewer field goal attempts in six straight contests, reaching 52 or less in half of those games. Note that the 'under' is 6-1 in Nevada's last seven games as a road underdog of between 6.5 and 9.0 points including a 2-0 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 9-5 in the Wolf Pack's last 14 contests following a double-digit win over a conference foe including a 5-1 record in that spot this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 23-10 in Colorado State's last 33 games with the total set in the 130's, as is the case here at the time of writing. The Rams have also seen the 'under' go 14-5 in their last 19 contests when seeking revenge for a loss in which their opponent scored 75 points or more including a 5-2 mark in that situation this season. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
02-27-24 | Blues v. Jets UNDER 6 | Top | 2-4 | Push | 0 | 27 h 30 m | Show |
Central Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Winnipeg at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Blues got drilled 6-1 by the Red Wings in Detroit on Saturday. They've had a couple of days off to lick their wounds and regroup and I look for them to come up with a much better defensive effort on Tuesday in Winnipeg. Note that the 'under' is 20-17 in St. Louis' last 37 games following a road loss by three goals or more including a 10-3 mark in that situation this season. Winnipeg secured a 4-3 overtime win over Arizona on Sunday. The 'under' is 12-6 in the Jets last 18 contests following an overtime victory including a 2-1 record in that situation this season. Additionally, the 'under' is 23-7 in Winnipeg's last 30 games after scoring three goals or more in five straight contests, as is the case here, including a perfect 6-0 mark in that situation over the last three seasons. While the 'over' did cash in the most recent matchup between these two teams, we haven't seen consecutive 'over' results in this series since April of 2019. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
02-27-24 | 76ers +12.5 v. Celtics | Top | 99-117 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Boston at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. The 76ers got crushed by the Bucks in front of a national audience on Sunday afternoon as their struggles without Joel Embiid continued. I do think there's a path for Philadelphia to stay competitive in Boston on Tuesday, however. The 76ers do have the ability to effectively shorten proceedings having held three straight opponents to 80 or fewer field goal attempts and 10 of their last 14 foes to 87 or less. The Celtics may actually be willing partners here noting that they've limited three of their last four opponents to 82 or fewer field goal attempts. Despite Philadelphia's recent struggles it has held six of its last seven opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. There's certainly plenty of room for improvement for the Sixers offense after they connected on just 36-of-97 field goal attempts in a failed comeback against Milwaukee on Sunday. Note that Philadelphia has hoisted up 90 or more field goal attempts in eight of its last 11 contests so it is at least finding a way to generate plenty of scoring opportunities. Note that Philadelphia has dropped the last two matchups in this series but has gone 22-12 ATS in its last 34 games playing with double-revenge. The Sixers are also 21-17 ATS in their last 38 contests after being held to 100 points or less in their previous game including a 3-2 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, Boston is just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 contests following three straight ATS wins as a favorite, as is the case here, including a 1-2 ATS record in that spot this season. The Celtics are also just 26-28 ATS in their last 54 games following eight straight victories including a 2-4 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons. Take Philadelphia (10*). | |||||||
02-26-24 | Kings v. Oilers -146 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 26 h 4 m | Show |
Pacific Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Edmonton over Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Monday. The Oilers are reeling on the heels of three straight losses and it all started with that wild 6-5 overtime loss at home against the Bruins last week. Note that Edmonton is in the fourth game of its five-game homestand so it needs to salvage something beginning with this division game on Monday. This will be a quick revenge spot for the Oilers after they dropped a 4-0 decision in Los Angeles on February 10th. Note that Edmonton hasn't lost consecutive meetings with Los Angeles since November of 2022 and January of 2023. It hasn't dropped consecutive matchups over the last 10 games in this series. The Kings barely escaped with a shootout victory over the lowly Ducks, at home no less, on Saturday. They've taken advantage of a favorable schedule lately to be sure, turning things around after a brutal stretch in December and January. Note that the Kings are a long-term 68-111 when playing for the eighth time in 14 days, as is the case here, including a 1-4 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the Oilers are 31-18 when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent including a 9-6 record in that spot this season. Take Edmonton (10*). | |||||||
02-26-24 | Pistons v. Knicks UNDER 224 | Top | 111-113 | Push | 0 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and New York at 7:40 pm et on Monday. The Pistons have seen the 'under' cash in each of their last five games while the Knicks ride a two-game 'under' streak into Monday's contest. Both teams are coming off losses on Saturday with Detroit falling on a last-second shot against Orlando and New York suffering a blowout loss at the hands of Boston. I'm anticipating another relatively low-scoring affair on Monday at the Garden. Detroit has shot about as well as you could expect in two games since the All-Star break, making good on 47 and 43 field goals in losses against the Pacers and Magic. It still scored 'only' 115 and 109 points in those two contests. Note that the Pistons haven't produced 109 or more points in three straight games since January 28th to February 2nd. On the flip side, Detroit has limited five straight and eight of its last 10 opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. The Knicks don't figure to test that streak, noting that they've hoisted up just 84, 79 and 82 field goal attempts in their last three contests. In fact, they've gotten off fewer than 90 field goal attempts in 22 of their last 28 games. On the flip side, the Knicks have held an incredible eight straight opponents to 84 or fewer field goal attempts. While the opposition has shot well against New York in recent weeks, I believe Detroit is better-suited for volume-shooting success but I don't see it accomplishing that against the slow-paced Knicks on Monday. Note that the 'under' is 26-20 in the Pistons last 46 games following five straight 'under' results and 10-7 in their last 17 contests after suffering a loss by three points or less, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 40-24 in New York's last 64 games following consecutive 'under' results including a 14-6 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 25-22 in the Knicks last 47 contests following a double-digit loss including a 5-4 record in that situation this season. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
02-26-24 | Coppin State v. Howard UNDER 138.5 | 69-78 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
MEAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Coppin State and Howard at 7:30 pm et on Monday. When these two teams met on January 29th they combined to score 147 points as Howard won in a 15-point rout. Note that they combined to knock down a whopping 43 free throws in that contest. To compare, last year's two meetings saw a grand total of just 50 made free throws and the two teams average only 29 made free throws per game combined this season. Coppin State rides an eight-game losing streak into this game. It hasn't made it easy on the opposition lately, however, holding four straight foes to 55 or fewer field goal attempts. In fact, it has limited six of its last seven opponents to 26 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, the Coppin State offense has been dreadful. It ranks 361st (out of 362 Division I teams) nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom. The Eagles have made good on 21 or fewer field goals in five of their last seven games. Howard remains incredibly stingy defensively, holding three of its last four opponents to 51 or fewer field goal attempts and 11 of its last 12 foes to 58 or fewer. The Bison offense isn't going to set the world on fire, knocking down 26 or fewer field goals in 11 of its last 12 contests. Howard has hoisted up 57 or fewer field goal attempts in 12 of its last 13 games overall. Note that the 'under' is 8-5 in Coppin State's last 13 games when seeking revenge for a same season loss against an opponent. The 'under' is also 7-2 in the Eagles last nine contests following a home loss by three points or less, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 25-20 in Howard's last 45 games as a favorite including an 8-5 record in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 21-11 in the Bison's last 32 games following a victory by six points or less. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
02-26-24 | Miami-FL +14 v. North Carolina | Top | 71-75 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Week. My selection is on Miami plus the points over North Carolina at 7 pm et on Monday. Miami has now lost six straight games to fall all the way to 12th in the ACC standings. With games left against Boston College and Florida State, the Hurricanes can still move up two or three spots in advance of the ACC Tournament but they need to turn things around now. This is undoubtedly a game the Canes have had circled on their schedule as they let the Tar Heels off the hook in a narrow three-point loss against them back on February 10th. Miami connected on just six three-point attempts in that game and got to the free throw line only 13 times (making good on 10 of those attempts) in the loss. Since then it's been all downhill but I do think we'll see Miami rise to the occasion here. North Carolina checks in off a 54-44 victory over Virginia on Saturday. The Cavaliers quite simply couldn't take advantage of their scoring opportunities in that game, making good on only 16-of-58 field goal attempts. Keep in mind, the Tar Heels had allowed at least 27 made field goals in five straight games prior to that contest. While North Carolina has yielded 30 or more made field goals twice in its last six games, Miami has done so just once in its last 12 contests (that happened on Saturday against Georgia Tech). Currently pacing the ACC by a game, the Tar Heels undoubtedly have their sights set on their regular season finale - a showdown with Duke on March 9th that might just decide who goes into the ACC Tournament as the number one seed. Note that the underdog has won four straight games ATS in this series. Despite their struggles this season, the Canes remain a long-term 123-79 ATS as a road underdog including a 12-9 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons. They're also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent. Meanwhile, North Carolina is just 5-13 ATS in its last 18 games as a home favorite of 12.5 points or more. The Tar Heels are also just 5-8 ATS in their last 13 contests following consecutive ATS wins as a favorite including a 3-4 ATS mark in that situation this season. Take Miami (10*). | |||||||
02-25-24 | Spurs v. Jazz -6 | 109-128 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah minus the points over San Antonio at 8:10 pm et on Sunday. The Jazz are reeling right now, losers of five straight games both SU and ATS. Their recent struggles really came out of nowhere as they had notched consecutive impressive home wins over the Bucks and Thunder prior to their current losing skid. I see Sunday's matchup against the road-weary Spurs as an ideal 'get-right' spot. The wheels have come off for San Antonio defensively in recent weeks. It has allowed 49 or more made field goals in five of its last six games with each of its last four opponents getting off at least 92 field goal attempts. The Jazz had an awful shooting night against the Hornets on Thursday but I'm willing to chalk that up to rust following a week-long layoff due to the All-Star break. Note that Utah has still made good on more than 40 field goals in seven of its last eight contests. On the flip side, the Jazz put forth a better defensive effort in their first game following the break, holding Charlotte to just 40-of-92 shooting. Note that they've limited six of their last seven foes to 92 or fewer field goal attempts. San Antonio has been thriving in a more up-tempo environment. The Spurs check in having knocked down 43 or fewer field goals in seven of their last 10 games. Note that San Antonio is just 39-43 ATS in its last 82 games when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent including a 12-14 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, Utah is 27-25 ATS in its last 52 home games with the total set at 230 points or higher including a 14-7 ATS mark in that situation this season. Take Utah (8*). | |||||||
02-25-24 | Quinnipiac v. Rider UNDER 153 | 78-88 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Quinnipiac and Rider at 2 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams are coming off relatively high-scoring affairs on Friday but I look for a different story to unfold on Sunday afternoon. Quinnipiac is reeling off three straight losses - its longest losing streak of the season. On a positive note, it has done a slightly better job defensively in recent weeks, holding six straight opponents to 61 or fewer field goal attempts. In fact, the Bobcats have limited three of their last five foes to 23 or fewer made field goals. Rider may be known for its offense but it hasn't been playing at all that fast of a pace lately, getting off 56 or fewer field goal attempts in five straight games. The Broncs will be looking to extend their three-game winning streak and after dropping a wild, high-scoring 88-84 decision on the road against the Bobcats back in early January, I'm not convinced they'll be interested in a track meet again here. Note that the 'over' has cashed in the last two meetings in this series and that matches the longest such streak over the course of 23 all-time matchups between these two teams. The last time we saw consecutive 'over' results in this series the next matchup reached just 138 total points. The 'under' is 17-10 in Quinnipiac's last 27 games following three straight losses in-conference including a 5-1 mark over the last three seasons. The 'under' is also 7-4 in the Bobcats last 11 contests after allowing 85 points in their previous game, as is the case here, including a 4-1 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 18-13 in Rider's last 31 games following a home victory by three points or less including a 5-1 record in that situation over the last three seasons (1-0 this season). Additionally, the 'under' is 25-20 in the Broncs last 45 home games with the total set in the 150's. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
02-25-24 | Bucks v. 76ers +4.5 | Top | 119-98 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 50 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Milwaukee at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. The Bucks are coming off a much-needed upset win in Minnesota on Friday as they snapped their two-game losing streak. Milwaukee is still just 4-7 SU and ATS over its last 11 games. It figures to be hard-pressed to cover many spreads as a favorite when it has been held to 42 or fewer made field goals in a staggering eight straight games. Over that stretch, the Bucks were held to 87 or fewer field goal attempts on five different occasions. On the flip side, they've allowed six of their last eight foes to connect on at least 43 field goals. They were fortunate that the Timberwolves didn't take advantage of their opportunities on Friday as they did hoist up 98 field goal attempts. Philadelphia brought its two-game losing streak to a halt with a 104-97 win over the Cavaliers on Friday. The 76ers have now delivered the cash in three of their last five games ATS. They haven't exactly been setting the world on fire offensively either, but they're not the ones laying points in this spot. Note that Philadelphia has connected on 40 or more field goals in nine of its last 10 contests. Defensively, the 76ers have shown improvement lately, limiting three straight and six of their last eight opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals including just 38 and 34 over their last two contests. The Bucks check in just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following an upset win. Meanwhile, the 76ers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 contests when seeking revenge for a loss by three points or less against an opponent, as is the case here. Take Philadelphia (10*). | |||||||
02-24-24 | Flames v. Oilers OVER 6.5 | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Calgary and Edmonton at 10:05 pm et on Saturday. The Oilers have dropped consecutive games following last night's 4-2 defeat at the hands of the Wild on home ice. I expect them to bounce back on Saturday but the rival Flames certainly won't make it easy for them. Calgary averages a respectable 3.2 goals per game on the road this season which is actually higher than its season scoring average at home. It's been feast-or-famine for the Flames offense lately as they've scored three goals or more in six of their last eight games but were shut out in the other two. I don't anticipate the Oilers shutting them down completely here (Edmonton has allowed three goals or more in nine straight contests). Note that the 'over' is 27-13 in the Flames last 40 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent in which they scored one goal or less, as is the case here, including a 7-3 mark in that situation this season. The 'over' is also 9-6 in Calgary's last 15 games following an overtime win including a perfect 3-0 mark this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 30-25 in the Oilers last 55 games following a loss by two goals or more including an 8-6 mark in that situation this season. The 'over' is also 14-9 in their last 23 contests played on the second of back-to-back nights including a 2-1 record this season. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
02-24-24 | Nets v. Wolves -8 | Top | 86-101 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over Brooklyn at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. The Timberwolves dropped a 112-107 home loss against the Bucks last night. I look for them to bounce back on Saturday as they host the reeling Nets. Brooklyn has had a tough enough time just getting shots off let alone knocking them down. The Nets check in having made good on fewer than 40 field goals in four of their last five games. They've mustered up just 79, 81 and 80 field goal attempts over their last three contests. Despite the loss last night, the T'Wolves continued to play well defensively. They've limited five straight and nine of their last 10 foes to 41 or fewer made field goals. In fact, only one of their last 19 opponents has gotten off 90 or more field goal attempts. Offensively, Minnesota has been far more consistent than Brooklyn, knocking down 46 or more field goals in three of its last five games and 40 or more in 18 of its last 23 contests. Brooklyn hasn't proven to be a good bounce-back team this season, going just 11-16 ATS in 27 games following an ATS loss including a 6-9 ATS mark following consecutive ATS defeats. The Nets are also just 23-29 ATS in their last 52 contests when seeking revenge for home loss against an opponent, as is the case here, including a 5-9 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, Minnesota is 17-12 ATS in its last 29 games following a loss by six points or less including a 5-2 ATS mark in that situation this season. Take Minnesota (10*). | |||||||
02-24-24 | Colorado State v. UNLV -1 | 60-66 | Win | 100 | 22 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on UNLV minus the points over Colorado State at 8 pm et on Saturday. It's revenge week for UNLV as it follows up Wednesday's 72-43 rout of Air Force with a matchup against Colorado State on Saturday. The Rams took the first meeting between these two teams by a 78-75 score on January 19th. The difference on that night was Colorado State knocked down 10 three-pointers compared to UNLV's five. The shoe should be on the other foot in Las Vegas, where the Runnin' Rebels average eight made threes per game this season. UNLV checks in playing as well defensively as any team in the nation right now. The Rebels have held six straight opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals. They've also limited six of their last seven foes to 53 or fewer field goal attempts. Colorado State is an excellent defensive team as well but it has been playing a little looser lately, allowing four of its last five opponents to get off at least 56 field goal attempts. Meanwhile, the Rams offense has made good on 25 or fewer field goals in three of their last four games. Colorado State is a long-term loser following a loss at 146-166 ATS including a 9-17 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons. UNLV on the other hand is 16-13 ATS in its last 29 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent including a 5-1 ATS record in that situation this season. Take UNLV (8*). | |||||||
02-24-24 | Grambling State v. Southern UNDER 133 | Top | 63-57 | Win | 100 | 21 h 33 m | Show |
SWAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Grambling and Southern at 6:30 pm et on Saturday. These two teams met back on January 20th and combined to score 141 points in a double-digit Grambling victory. I expect a lower-scoring affair in Saturday's rematch. Note that Grambling has quietly held 11 of its last 13 opponents to 24 or fewer made field goals. The Tigers rank 310th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. Southern has gotten off 54 or fewer field goal attempts in seven straight games. The Jaguars have made good on 23 or fewer field goals in three of their last four contests. On the flip side, they've arguably been even better than the Tigers defensively in recent weeks. Southern has limited an incredible nine straight opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals. You would have to go back 13 games to find the last time a Southern opponent hoisted up more than 53 field goal attempts. Note that the 'under' is 8-4 in Grambling's last 12 road games with the total set between 130 and 139.5 points including a perfect 4-0 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 15-10 in Southern's last 25 home games including a perfect 7-0 this season. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
02-24-24 | Duke v. Wake Forest -2.5 | 79-83 | Win | 100 | 17 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on Wake Forest minus the points over Duke at 2 pm et on Saturday. Wake Forest didn't play well in its most recent matchup against Duke on February 12th yet it still lost by 'only' eight points, on the road no less. Here, the Demon Deacons have a shot at quick revenge as they host the Blue Devils on Saturday having gone a perfect 14-0 on their home floor this season. Duke benefited from an ice cold Miami offense on Wednesday as the Hurricanes made good on just 19-of-61 field goal attempts. Note that the Blue Devils have allowed five of their last seven opponents to make good on at least 24 field goals. Wake Forest figures to take advantage. The Demon Deacons have connected on 27 or more field goals in six of their last seven contests. On the flip side, they've held three of their last five foes to 22 or fewer made field goals. Note that Duke is 9-14 ATS in its last 23 games as a road underdog of three points or less including an 0-2 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, Wake Forest is a modest 23-22 ATS in its last 45 games as a home favorite of three points or less but 4-1 ATS in that situation over the last three seasons. Take Wake Forest (8*). | |||||||
02-23-24 | Bucks v. Wolves UNDER 225.5 | Top | 112-107 | Win | 100 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Minnesota at 10:10 pm et on Friday. This is undoubtedly a game the Bucks have had circled on their calendar since getting throttled 129-105 on their home floor on February 8th. The Timberwolves shot the lights out in that game but I'm not anticipating a repeat performance here. While the Bucks have struggled to find the win column lately, they've continued to do a good job of limiting opposing offenses, holding six of their last eight opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. Minnesota isn't a team that's going to push the pace on them, noting the T'Wolves have hoisted up fewer than 90 field goal attempts in 14 of their last 18 games. On the flip side, you'd be hard-pressed to find a team that was as locked-in defensively as the T'Wolves prior to the All-Star break. They enter this game having limited four straight and an incredible 19 of their last 25 opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. In fact, Minnesota is allowing just 37 made field goals per contest at home this season. The 'over' has now cashed in consecutive meetings in this series but we haven't seen three straight 'over' results since way back in 2006. The 'under' is 28-14 in Milwaukee's last 42 games as a road underdog and 12-7 in its last 19 contests when seeking revenge for a double-digit home loss against an opponent. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 32-19 in the T'Wolves last 51 home contests with the total set between 220 and 229.5 and 7-3 in their last 10 games played on three or more days' rest. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
02-23-24 | Fairfield v. Quinnipiac -2 | 85-81 | Loss | -114 | 25 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Quinnipiac minus the points over Fairfield at 9 pm et on Friday. Quinnipiac has had four full days to stew on its second straight loss, which came on the heels of a 10-game winning streak. I look for the Bobcats to take out their frustrations on Fairfield on Friday. The Stags are fresh off a 94-80 home win over Mount St. Mary's. Still, they rank 236th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency (according to KenPom) and I fully expect them to have their hands full with a Quinnipiac offense that pushes the pace at every opportunity. The Bobcats have gotten off 63 or more field goal attempts in four of their last five games. On the flip side, they've held three of their last four foes to 23 or fewer made field goals. Note that Fairfield is just 4-7 ATS in its last 11 games following a double-digit home win including a 1-3 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, Quinnipiac is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 contests following a double-digit loss against a conference opponent, as is the case here. Take Quinnipiac (8*). | |||||||
02-23-24 | Clippers v. Grizzlies +9.5 | Top | 101-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Los Angeles at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Grizzlies have to feel pretty good about their chances as they catch the Clippers in the second of back-to-backs on Friday night in Memphis. Los Angeles is struggling defensively right now having allowed six straight and eight of its last nine opponents to make good on at least 45 field goals. The Clippers have had no success slowing the opposition, allowing 90 or more field goal attempts in five of their last seven contests. The Grizzlies, despite being undermanned, did show some signs of life offensively prior to the All-Star break, knocking down more than 40 field goals in four of their last six games. On the flip side they also held each of their last three opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. The Clippers have covered the spread in consecutive matchups in this series but haven't won three games in a row ATS over the Grizzlies since back in 2018. Note that Los Angeles is a long-term 40-54 ATS in its last 94 games as a road favorite of between 6.5 and 12 points including a 6-8 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons. The Clips are also just 2-6 ATS in their last eight contests following a road loss by 20 points or more, as is the case here. Memphis on the other hand is 23-15 ATS in its last 38 games as a home underdog and 29-14 ATS in its last 43 contests when playing with double-revenge. Take Memphis (10*). | |||||||
02-23-24 | Heat +3.5 v. Pelicans | 106-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami plus the points over New Orleans at 8:10 pm et on Friday. New Orleans looked like it emptied the tank in its first game back following the All-Star break last night, unloading on Houston in a 127-105 victory. The Pelicans played at an uncharacteristically fast pace in the game, hoisting up 96 field goal attempts. As a result, they reached 50 made field goals for a second straight game. I don't expect them to enjoy similar offensive success on Friday. Note that Miami quietly reeled off five straight ATS victories prior to the All-Star break. It checks in having limited eight straight opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals. It has also held five of its last six foes to 86 or fewer field goal attempts. Note that the Heat are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games played on three or more days' rest and a long-term 81-59 ATS in that situation. They're also 42-28 ATS in their last 70 contests as a road underdog. Meanwhile, New Orleans is just 17-18 ATS in its last 35 games played on the second of back-to-back nights and 9-14 ATS in its last 23 contests following a win by 20 points or more over a division opponent, as is the case here. Take Miami (8*). | |||||||
02-22-24 | Washington State v. Arizona UNDER 151 | Top | 77-74 | Push | 0 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington State and Arizona at 11 pm et on Thursday. Washington State has broken into the top-25 for the first time in an eternity and now it draws a difficult road test against a revenge-minded Arizona squad in Tucson on Thursday. The first meeting between these teams ended 73-70 in favor of the Cougars, cruising 'under' the total. In fact, the 'under' has cashed in five straight meetings in this series. Washington State enters this game locked-in defensively having held four straight and five of its last six opponents to 22 or fewer made field goals. Note that it limited Arizona to just 25 made field goals despite yielding 72 field goal attempts back on January 13th. The Wildcats are on a tear offensively but they've also faced mostly up-tempo opponents over the last few weeks. Note that Washington State ranks 310th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom and will almost certainly look to slow this game down and effectively shorten proceedings as a double-digit underdog on Thursday. While Arizona is known for its offensive prowess, it can play some defense as well, checking in ranked 11th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. The Wildcats have held eight of their last 10 opponents to 26 or fewer made field goals. Washington State has made good on 25 or fewer field goals in three of its last four contests. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 41-19 with the Cougars coming off consecutive wins by 10 points or more, as is the case here. The 'under' is also 18-12 in their last 30 games as an underdog including a 5-2 mark this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 9-7 in Arizona's last 16 games following three straight 'over' results, including 2-0 in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 10-5 in the Wildcats last 15 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent including 1-0 this season. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
02-22-24 | Lakers v. Warriors OVER 243 | 110-128 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Golden State at 10 pm et on Thursday. The Lakers won't have the services of Lebron James on Thursday night in San Francisco but they didn't last time out either and still defeated the Jazz by a 138-122 score, on the road no less. I don't think they mind being volume shooters one bit and the Warriors figure to afford them the opportunity to do so on Thursday. Note that Golden State has allowed 92 or more field goal attempts in four of its last six games. With that being said, the Warriors have done a fairly good job defensively but their opposition has displayed a solid scoring floor, making good on 43, 41, 44 and 43 field goals over their last four games. On the flip side, Golden State has been red hot offensively, knocking down 45 or more field goals in six straight and 13 of its last 16 games overall. Not only that but the Warriors have been pushing the pace, hoisting up 92 or more field goal attempts in nine straight contests. Meanwhile, the Lakers have been matador-like defensively, allowing five straight and 10 of their last 12 foes to make good on 45 or more field goals. They've also allowed nine of their last 10 opponents to hoist up at least 96 field goal attempts. The 'over' is 54-30 in the Lakers last 84 games as a road underdog including a 13-5 mark this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 16-10 in the Warriors last 26 games when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent, as is the case here, including 7-1 this season. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
02-22-24 | Rockets v. Pelicans UNDER 229.5 | Top | 105-127 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 0 m | Show |
Southwest Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and New Orleans at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams went into the All-Star break off 'over' results but I expect a different story to unfold as they match up for the fourth time this season on Thursday in New Orleans. Note that the three previous meetings in this series this season totalled just 205, 210 and 209 points. The Rockets had a recent stretch where they connected on 50 or more field goals in six of 11 games but have since cooled off, making good on 44 or fewer field goals in four straight contests prior to the break. Defensively, Houston has quietly been locked-in, limiting nine of its last 11 opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. While the Rockets have continued to give up their share of scoring opportunities, the Pelicans don't figure to push the pace, noting that New Orleans has hoisted up fewer than 90 field goal attempts in five straight games. The Pelicans did make good on 50 field goals in their most recent game against the lowly Wizards but have been held to 46 or fewer made field goals in 13 of their last 16 games overall. Like the Rockets, the Pelicans have been terrific defensively in recent weeks, holding seven of their last nine foes to 88 or fewer field goal attempts and a rock-steady 27 of their last 32 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 51-44 in the Rockets last 95 games when seeking revenge for a same season loss against an opponent including a 10-4 mark this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 60-40 in New Orleans' last 100 contests following an 'over' result including 19-6 this season. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
02-22-24 | Panthers +102 v. Hurricanes | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Florida over Carolina at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. While the Hurricanes have played well lately, the Panthers are quite simply on another level right now. Florida has won six games in a row and 10 of its last 11 overall. Whether at home or on the road that hasn't really matter one bit as the Panthers check in 20-9 away from home, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.2 goals, allowing just 2.2 goals per contest. Carolina has admittedly played well at home, sitting eight games above .500 but has given up 2.9 goals per game. This is a series the Panthers have owned, taking nine of the last 11 meetings including a four-game playoff series sweep last May. Note that Florida is 12-5 in its last 17 games following six straight victories while Carolina is just 2-3 when coming off three wins in a row this season. Take Florida (8*). | |||||||
02-22-24 | Avalanche v. Red Wings OVER 6.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -135 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and Detroit at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The 'under' cashed in the most recent meeting between these two teams last March. You would have to go back to 2014-15 to find the last time consecutive matchups between the Avalanche and Red Wings stayed 'under' the total. It's no secret that Detroit is one of the worst defensive teams in the league. There's reason to believe it can stay competitive in this contest, however, as Colorado has been just as leaky defensively on the road where it has yielded 3.6 goals per game. Note that the 'over' is 16-8 in the Avs last 24 games following consecutive home wins, as is the case here, including a 6-1 mark this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 23-12 in the Red Wings last 35 games following a one-goal victory including a 6-5 record in that situation this season. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
02-21-24 | UNLV -5.5 v. Air Force | Top | 72-43 | Win | 100 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on UNLV minus the points over Air Force at 11 pm et on Wednesday. UNLV is flashing in this revenge spot against Air Force. The Runnin' Rebels turned in their worst performance of the entire season in a 90-58 home loss against the Falcons back in January. Note that UNLV is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent as a favorite and a perfect 4-0 ATS when seeking revenge for a home loss by 20 points or more against an opponent going all the way back to 1997 (only once over that stretch have they sought revenge for a home loss by 30 points or more). The Rebels enter this game locked-in defensively having held five straight opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals. Meanwhile, Air Force has connected on 21 or fewer field goals in three of its last four games. In fact, the Falcons have had a tough enough time getting shots off let alone knocking them down, attempting 52 or fewer field goals in four of their last five games. While Air Force has done a tremendous job of slowing the pace and effectively shortening proceedings it has still allowed six straight and nine of its last 10 opponents to connect on at least 24 field goals despite six straight foes only managing to get off 51 or fewer field goal attempts. The problem here is that UNLV is comfortable playing at that slow pace as it ranks 299th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. The Rebels were held to just 22 made field goals in a narrow three-point loss to Nevada last time out but they have proven consistent offensively, making good on 24 or more field goals in nine of their last 11 contests, despite playing at that slow tempo. Note that UNLV is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games following a home loss in-conference and 6-1 ATS in its last seven contests following an upset loss at home, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Air Force is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games after losing six straight contests ATS and 6-11 ATS in its last 17 games off a road loss against a conference foe. Take UNLV (10*). | |||||||
02-21-24 | UNLV v. Air Force UNDER 133.5 | 72-43 | Win | 100 | 15 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between UNLV and Air Force at 11 pm et on Wednesday. The first matchup between these two teams this season was no contest as Air Force came up with its best performance of the season in a 90-58 victory in Las Vegas. That game soared over the total and as a result we're working with a higher number for this rematch. I believe it will prove too high. Keep in mind, these are two of the slowest paced teams in the country. UNLV checks in 299th in adjusted tempo according to KenPom while Air Force sits 358th (out of 362 Division I teams). The Falcons have connected on 21 or fewer field goals in three of their last four games and haven't played in over a week (they last took the floor on February 13th at San Jose State). On the flip side, Air Force has held five consecutive opponents to 50 or fewer field goal attempts. UNLV has almost matched Air Force step for step in that regard, limiting four of its last five foes to 52 or fewer field goal attempts and three of those to fewer than 50. Note that the 'under' is 9-2 in UNLV's last 11 games following a home loss in-conference, as is the case here. While Air Force enters riding a long 'over' streak (10 straight games), the 'under' remains 29-27 in its last 56 contests as an underdog. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
02-21-24 | Ole Miss v. Mississippi State UNDER 142.5 | Top | 71-83 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
SEC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Ole Miss and Mississippi State at 9 pm et on Wednesday. The first matchup between these rivals was a high-scoring barn-burner with the Rebels prevailing 86-82 on their home floor back in late January. I expect a much different game to play out in Wednesday's rematch. Note that the 'over' has now cashed in consecutive meetings in this series. We haven't seen three straight matchups between these two teams go 'over' the total since 2019-20 and prior to that 2005-06. Ole Miss snapped its three-game losing streak with a narrow win over Missouri last time out. You could see the Rebels shifting their focus to the defensive end of the floor as that losing skid grew. They enter this contest having held their last two opponents to just 54 and 49 field goal attempts. Keep in mind, Ole Miss ranks 244th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. The Rebels have played considerably faster from an offensive standpoint at home this season, averaging two fewer made field goals on two fewer field goal attempts compared to their season average on the road. Mississippi State has hoisted up fewer than 60 field goal attempts in five of its last six games, making good on 25 or fewer field goals in four of those contests. Like the Rebels, the Bulldogs are showing signs of locking in defensively, limiting their last three foes to 57, 47 and 55 field goal attempts and holding three straight opponents to 25 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 9-3 in Ole Miss' last 12 games following a win in-conference and 41-33 in its last 74 contests after allowing 75 points or more in consecutive games, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 16-7 in Mississippi State's last 23 games following three straight victories. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
02-21-24 | St. John's -10 v. Georgetown | Top | 90-85 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 25 m | Show |
Big East Game of the Week. My selection is on St. John's minus the points over Georgetown at 7 pm et on Wednesday. I think we'll see St. John's go off on Wednesday as it looks to snap its three-game losing streak with a road date against Georgetown. The Red Storm continue to afford themselves plenty of scoring opportunities as they've hoisted up 69, 71, 69 and 68 field goal attempts over their last four games. Sunday's loss against Seton Hall snapped a streak of three straight games in which they connected on at least 28 field goals. Note that St. John's will be facing a Georgetown squad that ranks 307th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency (according to KenPom) on Wednesday. The Hoyas have allowed eight straight opponents to knock down at least 25 field goals with five of those foes connecting on 32 or more. On the flip side, the Red Storm have held four of their last five opponents to 54 or fewer field goal attempts. Note that Georgetown has made good on 27 or fewer field goals in seven straight games and that's despite getting off more than 60 field goal attempts in five of those contests. St. John's checks in 5-2 ATS in its last seven games as a road favorite and 4-1 ATS in its last five contests following three straight losses against conference foes. Meanwhile, Georgetown is 8-21 ATS in its last 29 games as a home underdog and 6-9 ATS in its last 15 contests following consecutive double-digit losses against conference opponents. Take St. John's (10*). | |||||||
02-21-24 | Duke v. Miami-FL +5.5 | 84-55 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami plus the points over Duke at 7 pm et on Wednesday. The Blue Devils are red hot right now, winners of four games in a row, both SU and ATS. Meanwhile, Miami has lost four consecutive games, going 1-3 ATS over that stretch. This is college basketball and any team is capable of rising up on any given night and I'm confident we'll see the Hurricanes do just that on Wednesday. Miami has now held six straight opponents to fewer than 60 field goal attempts. The issue last time out was that it could only muster 51 field goal attempts itself in an 85-77 road loss against Boston College. Duke has allowed seven straight opponents to hoist up at least 57 field goal attempts and that should favor the Hurricanes and their 68th ranked offense (according to KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency metric) here. Note that Duke is just 7-12 ATS in its last 19 games after scoring 75 points or more in three consecutive games, as is the case here. It is also 27-37 ATS in its last 64 contests following four straight ATS victories as a favorite, which is also the situation on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Miami is a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last five games as a home favorite of six points or less and 8-3 ATS in its last 11 contests following a road loss in-conference. Take Miami (8*). | |||||||
02-21-24 | Arsenal v. FC Porto OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 45 m | Show |
Champions League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between FC Porto and Arsenal at 3 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a pair of low-scoring contests in Champions League action yesterday but I expect a different story to unfold, at least in this match on Wednesday. Note that Arsenal has seen each of its last five contests go 'over' 2.5 total goals. Meanwhile, FC Porto has scored first in seven of its last nine matches (Arsenal has found the back of the net first in five straight contests). I'm confident that both sides will come into this round knowing that they'll need to push rather than sit back and defend. We're talking about two of the youngest teams remaining in the Champions League this year. Porto in particular can be exposed at the back end, particularly on the outside. It's a similar story for Arsenal even if the Gunners are a little stronger between the sticks with goalkeeper David Raya in fine form. I consider both sides to be underrated up front and I'm confident we'll see at least three total goals on Wednesday. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
02-20-24 | Baylor v. BYU -3 | 71-78 | Win | 100 | 25 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on BYU minus the points over Baylor at 9 pm et on Tuesday. BYU got caught flat-footed on the road against Oklahoma State on Saturday as the Cowboys quite simply shot the lights out in a blowout victory. I look for the Cougars to bounce back as they look for revenge at home against Baylor on Tuesday. BYU dropped an 81-72 decision against the Bears in Waco back in early January. Since then, the Cougars have been on a bit of a roller-coaster but so have the Bears. Baylor enters this contest 'fat and happy' off a 94-81 road win over West Virginia on Saturday. Note that the Bears are just 9-11 ATS in their last 20 games following consecutive wins in-conference. Meanwhile, BYU is 47-28 ATS in its last 75 contests as a home favorite of six points or less including a perfect 2-0 ATS mark this season. Take BYU (8*). | |||||||
02-20-24 | Stars +135 v. Rangers | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas over New York at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Stars let the Bruins off the hook yesterday afternoon in Boston, allowing the tying goal with under two minutes remaining in the third period before losing in a shootout. I look for them to bounce back on Tuesday as they look to respond following consecutive losses. Note that Dallas is still 17-11 on the road this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.7 goals. The Rangers are red hot, winners of seven games in a row. Keep in mind, their recent surge has come at the expense of a number of struggling teams, including the rival Islanders in Sunday's Stadium Series matchup. New York rallied back from a late 5-3 deficit to tie the game before scoring early in the overtime period to secure the victory. Note that the Rangers are 0-3 when coming off seven straight wins over the last three seasons, and 3-9 in their last 12 contests in that situation. The Stars are 21-6 in their last 27 games after giving up four goals or more in consecutive games and a perfect 7-0 when coming off a road loss by one goal this season. Take Dallas (8*). | |||||||
02-20-24 | Islanders +130 v. Penguins | Top | 5-4 | Win | 130 | 9 h 0 m | Show |
Metropolitan Division Game of the Month. My selection is on New York over Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Penguins are reeling right now, losers of four of their last five games to fall farther out of the Eastern Conference playoff race. The Islanders are struggling as well having dropped three straight games including Sunday's heart-breaker against the Rangers outdoors at MetLife Stadium. I do think the Isles are better-positioned to bounce back right now. Here, they'll be looking for revenge after dropping both previous matchups between these two teams this season. Pittsburgh is sorely missing Jake Guentzel right now. Go up and down the Pens roster and you won't find many reliable sources for offense. Keep in mind, the Pens average only 2.7 goals per game on home ice this season while the Isles average 3.0 goals per contest on the road. Pittsburgh hasn't won three straight meetings in this series since 2021. New York checks in 29-23 in its last 52 games following a one goal loss while Pittsburgh is just 24-25 (-10.9 net games) when coming off a home loss. Take New York (10*). | |||||||
02-20-24 | Bowling Green +1.5 v. Central Michigan | Top | 60-62 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
MAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Bowling Green plus the points over Central Michigan at 7 pm et on Tuesday. This is a true 'get right' game for Bowling Green after it was blasted by Louisiana and Eastern Michigan in its last two contests. Here, the Falcons will have revenge on their minds after suffering a 77-76 home loss against Central Michigan earlier this month. The Chippewas have benefited from some good fortune this season as they rank second in the country in luck rating according to KenPom's metrics. It shows as the Chips have held six of their last eight opponents to 24 made field goals or less despite six of those foes getting off at least 60 field goal attempts. In fact, Central Michigan has allowed its last five opponents to hoist up 66, 73, 70, 60 and 69 field goal attempts. It also checks in 324th in the country (out of 362 Division I teams) in adjusted offensive rating. Bowling Green prefers to play at a fast pace - it simply hasn't been able to cash in on its opportunities over the last couple of games. I'm confident it can flip the script in this matchup. There's a fairly well-defined offensive ceiling in play when it comes to CMU as it has connected on 26 or fewer field goals in eight of its last nine games. The lone outlier over that stretch actually came against Bowling Green as the Chips made good on 31-of-61 field goal attempts in that game. I don't think there's any question the Falcons got caught looking past CMU on that occasion as they were fresh off an upset road win over Ball State. Note that Bowling Green is 3-1 ATS when coming off a loss in-conference this season and a perfect 2-0 ATS when that loss came on the road. Central Michigan is a long-term 67-84 ATS in its last 151 games after consecutive ATS wins including an 8-11 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons. Take Bowling Green (10*). | |||||||
02-19-24 | Virginia v. Virginia Tech -3.5 | Top | 41-75 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on Virginia Tech minus the points over Virginia at 7 pm et on Monday. This is undoubtedly a game the Hokies have had circled on their calendar since dropping a 65-57 loss against the Cavaliers back on January 17th. Virginia Tech turned the basketball over 15 times in that game, allowing Virginia to play its game and effectively shorten proceedings. Note that the home team is a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS in the last six meetings in this series. The straight-up winner has covered the spread in 16 straight matchups between these in-state rivals. The Cavaliers have expended plenty of energy during their 9-1 run to climb to third place in the ACC. Meanwhile, the Hokies have a lot of work to do as they sit 6-8 in conference play with six games left on the schedule. The good news is the schedule is fairly forgiving down the stretch but the Hokies need to turn it around here following Saturday's blowout loss at North Carolina. Note that Virginia is just 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games as a road underdog of six points or less and 23-30 ATS in its last 53 contests following a win by three points or less against a conference opponent. Virginia Tech checks in 25-17 ATS in its last 42 games as a home favorite and 5-1 ATS in its last six contests when seeking revenge for a loss in which it scored 60 points or less. Take Virginia Tech (10*). | |||||||
02-19-24 | Stars v. Bruins UNDER 6 | 3-4 | Loss | -114 | 15 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Boston at 1:05 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring overtime losses on home ice on Saturday. I look for a different story to unfold as the Stars and Bruins match up in a matinee affair in Boston on Monday. Dallas actually held the high-powered Oilers offense off the scoreboard for the entire first and third periods on Saturday but gave up three goals in the second frame and another in overtime in a 4-3 defeat. Note that the Stars check in allowing just 2.6 goals per game on the road this season. The Bruins have a fairly well-established ceiling offensively in this particular series having scored three goals or less in the last 12 meetings, reaching four goals just once over that stretch. Boston desperately needs to button things up defensively after allowing five goals in an overtime loss against the Kings on Saturday - its fourth consecutive loss on home ice. Still, the Bruins have allowed only 2.6 goals per game at home this season. Note that the 'under' is 14-10 in the Stars last 24 games following a one-goal loss at home. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 12-6 in the Bruins last 18 contests in the identical situation. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
02-18-24 | Western v. Eastern OVER 362 | 186-211 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between the Eastern Conference and Western Conference at 8 pm et on Sunday. We've seen some lower scoring results in the NBA All-Star Game in recent years but that's really only been due to the Elam Ending rules that were enforced, implementing a target score that would end the game. It's back to the regular rules this year, along with the conference format meaning we'll see four 12-minute quarters. Keep in mind, the last two times the East and West squared off we saw 369 and 374 points in 2016 and 2017, respectively. I don't expect to see any defense played in Sunday's showcase as the offensive talent is as good as it's ever been in today's NBA, while defense has become optional with the exception of a few select teams. Simply put, I'm not sure they can set this total high enough. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
02-18-24 | Rangers v. Islanders UNDER 5.5 | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between the Rangers and Islanders at 3:05 pm et on Sunday. The 'over' has cashed in each of the last two meetings between these two teams but this is the first matchup this season. Note that we haven't seen three straight 'over' results in this rivalry since 2016-17. The 'under' is 19-12 in the Rangers last 31 games following a home win by three goals or more, as is the case here. The Blueshirts have also seen the 'under' go 19-11 in their last 30 contests following consecutive wins by two goals or more. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 12-6 in the Islanders last 18 games played on three or more days' rest and 20-17 in their last 37 contests after scoring two goals or less in consecutive games, which is also the situation here. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
02-18-24 | Canisius v. Siena OVER 137.5 | Top | 73-64 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 6 m | Show |
MAAC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Canisius and Siena at 2 pm et on Sunday. We've seen consecutive 'under' results in this series and that's notable as we haven't witnessed a streak of three straight meetings between these two teams going 'under' the total since an extended stretch of low-scoring matchups from 2005-08. Canisius can drag even the worst of opponents into a high-scoring affair, noting the Golden Griffins have allowed 28 or more made field goals in five straight games. They've also allowed eight of their last 11 opponents to get off at least 60 field goal attempts. In a similar vein, Siena has allowed six of its last 10 foes to hoist up at least 66 field goal attempts. Canisius is waiting for an opportunity to get out and run after getting bogged down in its last two games against Iona and Marist. Note that the Golden Griffins actually rank a respectable 130th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. The first meeting between these two teams this season reached just 130 total points but that game featured just eight combined made three-pointers. Note that these two teams average 13 combined made threes per game this season. The 'over' is 28-18 in Canisius' last 46 road games with the total set between 135 and 139.5, as is the case here at the time of writing. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 4-1 in Siena's last five contests as a home underdog of three points or less and 14-12 in its last 26 contests when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
02-17-24 | Pacific v. Gonzaga UNDER 152.5 | Top | 76-102 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 55 m | Show |
WCC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Pacific and Gonzaga at 9 pm et on Saturday. Pacific was far more competitive than expected in an 82-73 home loss against Gonzaga last month. While this game figures to be more lopsided, I also believe it will be lower-scoring. The Bulldogs used up a lot of what they had in the tank in Thursday's eventual rout of Loyola Marymount. That was a one-point game at halftime before Gonzaga poured it on in the second half. Note that the Bulldogs, while known for their offensive prowess, have also played some defense lately, holding nine straight opponents to 28 or fewer made field goals. Pacific doesn't figure to approach that number on Saturday, noting the Tigers have connected on 25 or fewer field goals in eight of their last nine games. In fact, Pacific has gotten off 53 or fewer field goal attempts in six of its last eight contests. The 'over' has cashed in two straight meetings between these teams but we haven't seen three consecutive 'over' results in series history (going back 20 all-time meetings since 2012). Note that the 'under' is 20-16 in Pacific's last 36 games as a road underdog and 13-5 in its last 18 contests when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 11-4 in Gonzaga's last 15 games following a road win over a conference foe and 18-13 in its last 31 contests following an ATS victory as a double-digit favorite, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
02-17-24 | Red Wings +110 v. Flames | Top | 5-0 | Win | 110 | 20 h 55 m | Show |
Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Detroit over Calgary at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. The Red Wings have dropped the first two games on their current western road trip and both of those losses came in lopsided fashion. Note that Detroit is 8-6 in its last 14 games following consecutive road losses and 12-8 in its last 20 contests following two straight road losses by three goals or more, as is the case here. The Flames had won four games in a row prior to losing their last two contests. Calgary began a potential fire sale by dealing away Elias Lindholm during the All-Star break and is essentially going nowhere this season. Note that the Flames are just 12-13 on home ice this season, averaging just 2.9 goals per game. While Detroit hasn't been any better on the road, it has at least shown more of an offensive spark, averaging 3.3 goals per contest. Calgary checks in 11-18 in its last 29 games following a loss against a division opponent and 2-9 in its last 11 contests following consecutive losses by two goals or more, which is the situation here. Take Detroit (10*). | |||||||
02-17-24 | Kansas -125 v. Oklahoma | 67-57 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas moneyline over Oklahoma at 4 pm et on Saturday. The Jayhawks have lost two of their last three games and are coming off a complete no-show on the road against Texas Tech on Monday. Oklahoma checks in off a blowout loss as well, suffering a 17-point defeat at Baylor on Tuesday. I believe Kansas is better-suited to bounce back on Saturday as it expects to have Kevin McCullar Jr. back in the lineup to give it a much-needed offensive boost. Note that the Sooners have been as bad as any team in the nation offensively over the last two games, connecting on an identical 21 field goals while getting off just 46 and 45 field goal attempts, respectively. In fact, they've been held to 24 or fewer made field goals in six of their last eight contests. The Jayhawks have struggled offensively in recent games but are just three games removed from a stretch that saw them knock down more than 30 field goals in six out of 10 games. Defensively, Kansas has held three straight opponents to 58 or fewer field goal attempts. Texas Tech simply shot the lights out against it on Monday. Oklahoma has seen two of its last three foes get off at least 62 field goal attempts. Note that Kansas is 26-3 in its last 29 games off a double-digit loss in-conference and 54-13 in its last 67 games as a favorite. Oklahoma is 15-26 in its last 41 games as an underdog and 19-32 in its last 51 games in-conference. Take Kansas (8*). |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ricky Tran | $756 |
ProSportsPicks | $632 |
Joseph D'Amico | $510 |
Joey Tron | $450 |
Tom Macrina | $399 |
Nick Parsons | $344 |
Sean Murphy | $306 |
Jack Jones | $303 |
William Burns | $233 |
Dan Kaiser | $220 |