Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
07-15-23 | Winnipeg -9.5 v. Ottawa | 28-31 | Loss | -110 | 81 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Winnipeg minus the points over Ottawa at 4 pm et on Saturday. The RedBlacks are just one game removed from their first victory of the season but they're going to be in tough moving forward as they're down to their fourth option at quarterback in Dustin Crum. He was the Ottawa offense, mostly with his legs, after taking over for an injured Jeremiah Masoli last week in Hamilton. I don't expect Crum to catch an elite Blue Bombers defense off guard with his running ability this week, however. There's a reason why the former Kent State standout wasn't able to overtake the likes of Nick Arbuckle or Tyrie Adams for the QB job earlier this season. Now with Arbuckle having proven ineffective and Adams and Masoli injured, it's Crum's time. I look for a 'baptism by fire' of sorts in his first start on Saturday. Winnipeg is rolling right now, fresh off back-to-back double-digit victories over Montreal and Calgary. Since suffering a humbling 30-6 home loss against B.C. on June 22nd, the Blue Bombers have allowed just one touchdown in their last eight quarters of action. On the flip side, Winnipeg has displayed a balanced offensive attack, running for 100+ yards in four of five games so far this season. While Ottawa's run defense has been stout this season, it has also benefited from facing a manageable schedule. The toughest ground game the RedBlacks have faced would be Calgary and they did so with the Stamps missing starter Ka'Deem Carey. In that contest, Stamps backup RB Dedrick Mills ran for 102 yards on 19 carries. This is Winnipeg's sweet spot as it has gone a perfect 6-0 in Weeks 5 through 9 going back to last season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 12.9 points along the way. Meanwhile, Ottawa checks in 0-8 ATS when returning home off a road loss over the last three seasons, outscored by 10.6 points on average in that spot. Take Winnipeg (8*). | |||||||
07-15-23 | Red Sox v. Cubs UNDER 8 | Top | 4-10 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Chicago at 2:20 pm et on Saturday. We saw a relatively high-scoring affair between these two teams last night as Boston rolled to an 8-3 victory. I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday as the Red Sox send James Paxton to the hill against Marcus Stroman of the Cubs. Paxton is having a renaissance year of sorts, logging a 3.66 FIP and 0.98 WHIP in 10 starts spanning 56 innings of work (he had pitched just 1 1/3 innings over the last two seasons combined). Behind Paxton is a Red Sox bullpen that certainly needed the break as it had worked north of 40 innings collectively over the previous seven games. Still, the Red Sox 'pen owns a 3.80 ERA and 1.22 WHIP on the road this season. Marcus Stroman struggled in his last few starts prior to the break but has still posted a 3.41 FIP and 1.09 WHIP on the campaign. I look for him to bounce back here noting that he has recorded a terrific 2.91 ERA and 0.88 WHIP at home this season. The Cubs bullpen had logged a collective 3.51 ERA and 1.27 WHIP at home this season entering last night's action. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
07-14-23 | Toronto v. Montreal +5.5 | Top | 35-27 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 18 m | Show |
Game of the Week. My selection is on Montreal plus the points over Toronto at 7:30 pm et on Friday. The Alouettes were in an awful spot last Sunday as they travelled across the country to take on a Lions squad that had just suffered its first loss of the campaign in embarrassing fashion (QB Vernon Adams Jr. threw six interceptions) less than a week earlier. Montreal couldn't match B.C.'s intensity in a double-digit loss. That makes two straight defeats for the Als and that's worth noting as they've gone a perfect 6-0 ATS when coming off consecutive losses over the last three seasons, outscoring foes by an average margin of 12.2 points in that situation. The Argos are off to a 3-0 start, scoring a whopping 120 points in the process. They've benefited from playing two of their three games at home with their lone road tilt coming against the 0-5 Elks. Note that Toronto did deliver a 34-27 victory in the most recent meeting between these East Division rivals last November but the Argos haven't posted back-to-back wins by more than a field goal against the Als since back in 2017. Incredibly, Toronto hasn't won a game by more than single point in Montreal since October of 2015. Take Montreal (10*). | |||||||
07-14-23 | Padres v. Phillies UNDER 9.5 | 8-3 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Diego and Philadelphia at 6:05 pm et on Friday. In any other year, this would appear to be a starting pitching mismatch as Yu Darvish has been a Cy Young Award contender four times previously in his career while Christopher Sanchez is a relative unknown for the Phillies. The shoe has been on the other foot this season, however, as Darvish has struggled to the tune of a 4.03 FIP and 1.27 WHIP. I do think he can use the second half of the season of a restart of sorts. He should be happy to see the Phillies as he owns a career 2.35 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in nine career starts against them. Sanchez has been terrific in five starts this season, logging a 3.56 FIP and 1.03 WHIP while allowing just 26-of-99 batters he has faced to reach base. Behind Sanchez is a Phillies bullpen that has been elite this season, posting a collective 3.75 ERA and 1.29 WHIP with 25 saves converted and only eight blown. The Padres bullpen hasn't been quite on the same level and struggled leading into the break. I do think that had something to do with their relief corps being overworked and the All-Star break should have served them well in that regard. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
07-13-23 | Hamilton v. Edmonton Elks OVER 42.5 | Top | 37-29 | Win | 100 | 48 h 1 m | Show |
Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Hamilton and Edmonton at 9 pm et on Thursday. The Edmonton Elks are off to an unsurprisingly awful start to the season, losers of five games in a row heading into Thursday's matchup with the Hamilton Tiger-Cats. Edmonton could only muster 18 points in its last two games - both on the road - but I do think it made some progress offensively going back to QB Taylor Cornelius at quarterback in last week's ugly 12-11 defeat in Saskatchewan. In that contest, the Elks racked up 369 total yards, often moving the football down the field at will in what is usually a hostile environment in Regina. They ended up with little to show for it but I do think that changes back at home this week. Note that the last time we saw Edmonton play here it put up 31 points in a game that totalled 73 points against Toronto. It should be happy to see Hamilton noting that it has scored 23 and 29 points in two matchups between these two teams over the last two seasons. The Tiger-Cats scored only 21 points against a better-than-expected Ottawa defense last Saturday but did manage to make a late goal-line stand to earn their first win of the season. Note that Hamilton has displayed a rock solid scoring floor and a sky-high ceiling in this particular matchup in recent years, putting up at least 25 points in each of the last nine meetings while producing 38 points or more on three occasions over that stretch. The Elks are currently allowing a lofty 5.6 yards per rush and 8.7 yards per pass attempt this season. Hamilton hasn't been much better against the run, yielding 5.2 ypr and even worse against the pass, giving up a whopping 9.6 yppa. The 'under' is 4-1 in games involving Edmonton this season but it has yet to post three consecutive 'under' results. Meanwhile, the Ti-Cats have yet to record back-to-back 'under' results and are of course coming off an 'under' last week against Ottawa. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is a long-term 24-11 with the Elks listed as a home underdog of three points or less, leading to an average total of 55.2 points. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
07-09-23 | Braves v. Rays -112 | Top | 4-10 | Win | 100 | 6 h 41 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Atlanta at 1:40 pm et on Sunday. The Rays have now lost seven straight games including the first two contests in this series. I do expect them to finally snap their skid on Sunday as they send Zach Eflin to the hill against Bryce Elder of the Braves. Eflin has been terrific this season, logging a 3.09 FIP and 0.98 WHIP to go along with a 9-4 record - Cy Young Award-caliber numbers. He should be happy to be facing the Braves - an opponent he saw plenty of during his days pitching for the Phillies in the N.L. East. Note that Eflin owns a 3.26 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 13 career outings against Atlanta. Bryce Elder is having an outstanding season for the Braves as well. With that being said, I do think there has been some reason for concern (I use that term loosely) noting that he has issued eight walks over his last three starts and is coming off an outing in which he struck out only one batter over 6 2/3 innings against the Guardians. The Rays offense has been completely out of sorts but we do know what their lineup is capable of, noting they still average 5.4 runs per game this season. The two bullpens are virtually a wash on the season. While the Braves relief corps has been more effective lately, it is worth noting that the Rays were able to keep most of their key relievers idle thanks to Saturday's lopsided result. Take Tampa Bay (10*). | |||||||
07-08-23 | Mets v. Padres -1.5 | 1-3 | Win | 120 | 14 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego -1.5 runs over New York at 10:10 pm et on Saturday. The Mets took the opener of this series last night - their sixth straight victory. That win snapped the Padres three-game winning streak. Here, I look for San Diego to bounce back as it sends Blake Snell to the hill against David Peterson in a matchup of left-handers. Peterson has actually pitched reasonably well since returning to the big club. He still owns a 4.60 FIP and 1.67 WHIP on the season and didn't fare much better in his minor league sting, posting a 4.86 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in 37 innings of work. Snell has really turned his season around after a shaky start to the campaign for the Padres. He enters this outing having allowed two earned runs or less in each of his last eight outings, lowering his FIP to 3.78 and his WHIP to 1.26. The two bullpens are virtually a wash on the season. While Mets relievers have pitched better over the last week or so, the Padres 'pen has still proven reliable here at home, boasting a 2.92 ERA and 1.15 WHIP on the season. Take San Diego -1.5 runs (8*). | |||||||
07-08-23 | Ottawa v. Hamilton -1.5 | Top | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
East Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Hamilton minus the points over Ottawa at 7 pm et on Saturday. The Tiger-Cats will look to finally pick up their first win of the season on Saturday as they host the Redblacks. Ottawa will welcome back QB Jeremiah Masoli after he started the year on the injured list. I do wonder whether he's being rushed back with last week's starter, Tyrie Adams sidelined with a knee injury and few other viable options at the position. While the Redblacks did pick up their first win of the season last week, it came against the lowly Elks. Hamilton has faced an extremely difficult schedule to open the campaign, going up against Winnipeg, Toronto and Montreal - those three teams have lost just two games combined so far this season. Note that you would have to go back eight meetings in this series - all the way to 2018 - to find the last time Ottawa won a game in this series. Take Hamilton (10*). | |||||||
07-08-23 | Rockies v. Giants OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and San Francisco at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. We saw a relatively low-scoring affair between these division rivals last night but I look for a different story to unfold on Saturday afternoon in San Francisco. Connor Seabold will inexplicably get another turn in the Rockies starting rotation. He enters this start sporting a 5.98 FIP and 1.47 WHIP in 66 2/3 innings of work this season. Seabold remains in the Rockies rotation out of necessity only and he's not likely to get a lot of support from the Colorado bullpen, noting that it has been as overworked as any relief corps in baseball this season, logging a collective 359 2/3 innings while posting a 4.91 ERA and 1.51 WHIP. Over the last seven games those numbers rise to 6.67 and 1.59, respectively. Ryan Walker will get the start in an 'opener' role for the Giants. He's fared well in that role this season. But again, we're only talking about a cameo appearance. Like the Rockies relief corps, the Giants 'pen has also been overworked this season, logging north of 370 collective innings. San Francisco's relievers have held up reasonably well, but not so much lately as they've recorded a collective 5.58 ERA and 1.31 WHIP over the last seven games. The Giants offense in particular has struggled lately but I see this as an ideal bounce-back spot for both lineups on what should be a pleasant afternoon for hitters on Saturday. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
07-07-23 | Calgary +8.5 v. Winnipeg | 11-24 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Calgary plus the points over Winnipeg at 8:30 pm et on Friday. The Blue Bombers enter the first meeting between these West Division rivals this season having won three straight matchups in the series - matching their longest such streak in an eternity. Note that none of those victories came by more than a touchdown. To find the last time they've defeated the Calgary by more than a touchdown you would have to go back to 2019. Given they're north of a touchdown underdog in this one, the Stampeders may face long odds to break that series losing streak but I do expect them to at least give Winnipeg a serious fight on Friday. The Bombers benefited from four Alouettes turnovers but could only produce 17 points, albeit in a lopsided 14-point victory last week. They've now scored just 23 points over their last two games. Calgary turned in a rather sloppy performance the last time we saw it take the field two weeks ago as it turned the football over three times in an eventual 29-26 overtime loss to Saskatchewan. That loss came as a home favorite and that's notable as the Stamps are a perfect 7-0 ATS when coming off an upset home loss against a division opponent over the last 2+ seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 11.0 points in that situation. They're also an identical 7-0 ATS when playing on the road off a loss over the same stretch, outscoring foes by 11.7 points on average in that spot. Take Calgary (8*). | |||||||
07-07-23 | Cubs v. Yankees UNDER 8.5 | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and New York at 7:05 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring affairs on Thursday but I look for a different story to unfold as they open a three-game Interleague series on Friday in the Bronx. Jameson Taillon will take the ball for the visiting Cubs. He's had a miserable season for the most part but there's been some reason for encouragement over his last couple of outings. In those two starts, he struck out 14 while walking only one in 10 innings of work (he had struck out only 13 batters combined over his previous four outings). He continues to be bitten by the long ball far too often but perhaps a return to his old stomping ground at Yankee Stadium can help his cause. Note that Taillon logged a 3.94 FIP and 1.13 WHIP while making the majority of his starts in the Bronx as a member of the Yankees last season. He's capable of stepping up at times on the road, noting that he held the Dodgers to five scoreless innings in April and the Padres to one run over 5 2/3 innings in June, with both of those starts coming away from home. New York isn't exactly tearing the cover off the ball right now and continues to strike out way too much while not walking nearly enough. Carlos Rodon will get his first start of the season for the Yankees following a lengthy stint on the injured list. Rodon looked no worse for wear in three minor league outings, posting a 0.84 ERA and 0.56 WHIP in 10 2/3 innings of work, allowing only 6-of-38 batters he faced to reach base. You have to figure he's happy to be facing the Cubs in his first start back in the majors, noting that he's gone against them three times since the start of the 2021 season, allowing just two earned runs on seven hits over 17 1/3 innings of work (striking out 31 and walking only three). While the Yankees bullpen has been overworked this season, they do boast plenty of depth in that department and have held up reasonably well, logging a 3.06 ERA and 1.21 WHIP here at home (entering last night's action). Yankees relievers have converted 25 saves while blowing only 11. Chicago's 'pen has struggled for the most part with the exception of a few key arms. Interestingly, Cubs relievers seem better suited to 'pitching from behind' (trailing in games) rather than holding down leads. On a positive note, the Chicago relief corps entered yesterday's action having yet to eclipse the 300-inning mark this season. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
07-06-23 | Edmonton Elks v. Saskatchewan OVER 42.5 | Top | 11-12 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 19 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Edmonton and Saskatchewan at 9 pm et on Thursday. The Elks are coming off a low-scoring affair in Ottawa last week as they dropped a 26-7 decision in QB Jarrett Doege's first CFL start. They'll turn back to Taylor Cornelius at quarterback this week and it's the right move in my opinion after he had his best game of the season (before getting inexplicably benched in favor of Doege) two weeks ago against Toronto. Edmonton has indicated that it wants to simplify its offensive gameplan and play much faster this week. I think that means we'll see the Elks let Cornelius cut it loose in the passing game, noting that their ground attack has been virtually non-existent in the early going this season. This will be the second matchup between these two teams already this season after the Roughriders edged the Elks 17-13 in Edmonton back in Week 1. Note that the Elks have shown a much higher scoring floor here in Regina in recent years, scoring 24 and 26 points in two road matchups with the Riders going back to 2021 (those two games totalled 50 and 53 points). Of note, Taylor Cornelius was the Elks quarterback for both of those contests. The Elks defense has been alarmingly bad against the run this season, giving up 135, 119, 191 and 208 yards on the ground. I question how many second-and-long situations they'll be able to put the Riders in on Thursday. Saskatchewan QB Trevor Harris likely benefited most from the bye week as he was dealing with nagging hip and back injuries. Edmonton didn't give up a ton of yardage through the air in the last two games but that was largely game-script related as it dropped lopsided decisions against Toronto and Ottawa (the Argos and RedBlacks attempted only 23 and 20 passes, respectively). The Riders have aired it out 30+ times in all three games this season (their most recent contest did go go overtime). Here, we'll note that the 'over' is a long-term 36-18 with the Elks seeking revenge for a loss in which they scored 14 points or less, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 55.0 points. The 'over' is also 11-2 with the Riders playing at home off a win by three points or less, which is also the situation here, leading to an average total of 53.6 points in that spot. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
07-06-23 | Cubs v. Brewers -105 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
N.L. Central Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee over Chicago at 2:10 pm et on Thursday. The Cubs have taken the last two games in this series after dropping the opener on Monday. I look for Milwaukee to answer back in Thursday's series finale. Marcus Stroman will get the start for Chicago. We've seen some regression from the right-hander after a red hot start to the campaign as he has allowed eight earned runs on 13 hits over his last two outings spanning just nine innings of work. That's to be expected. Stroman has allowed only 6.7 hits per nine innings this season. He hasn't held opposing batters to fewer than 8.0 hits per nine innings since way back in his sophomore season in 2015 and that was an injury-shortened one (he worked only 27 innings). He has admittedly shut the door on the Brewers in three starts against them since the start of last season but here he'll be starting on short rest (four days) and even if he does pitch well there's no guarantee the Cubs up-and-down bullpen can close it out. Note that normally reliable setup man Mark Leiter Jr. has allowed four earned runs in his last two appearances and closer Adbert Alzolay has pitched in each of the last two games and may not be available as a result on Thursday. Freddy Peralta will counter for Milwaukee. He figures to be in line for some positive regression, noting that he has given up 8.1 hits per nine innings - his highest total since the 2019 campaign. The Brewers have actually lost Peralta's last two starts. They haven't lost three Peralta starts in a row since last August. We've seen encouraging signs out of the right-hander lately as he has yielded four hits or less in four straight starts and struck out at least eight batters in three of his last five trips to the hill. That comes on the heels of a stretch that saw him strike out five batters or fewer in five consecutive outings. The Brewers bullpen has admittedly struggled lately, entering last night's contest sporting a 5.11 ERA and 1.38 WHIP over the last seven games but has been reliable for the most part this season, converting 25 saves while blowing only 10. Take Milwaukee (10*). | |||||||
07-05-23 | Mets v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair between the Mets and Diamondbacks yesterday afternoon but I expect a different story to unfold in Game 2 of this series on Wednesday. Kodai Senga will take the ball for the visiting Mets. He owns a 4.02 FIP and 1.35 WHIP this season. Command has certainly been an issue as he has handed out 5.1 walks per nine innings. With that said, he's been able to limit the damage by allowing just 7.1 hits and 1.0 home run per nine innings, while striking out an average of 11.1 batters per nine innings. The D'Backs don't boast an overly patient lineup and I expect Senga to find some success as he faces them for the first time in his career. Tommy Henry will counter for Arizona. He got off to a rocky start this season but has since settled down, holding seven of his last 10 opponents to two earned runs or less. Henry has worked at least into the sixth inning in eight of his last 11 outings. Behind Henry is a D'Backs bullpen that entered yesterday's game in terrific position having worked just 20 innings over the last seven games, logging a 2.25 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. While the Mets 'pen entered this series sporting a collective ERA north of four, it owns a respectable 1.27 WHIP with 20 saves converted and only 11 blown. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
07-04-23 | Pirates v. Dodgers OVER 9 | Top | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
N.L. Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Los Angeles at 9:10 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a relatively low-scoring affair to open this series last night as the Dodgers prevailed by a 5-2 score. I expect a much different story to unfold on Tuesday as the Pirates send Luis Ortiz against impressive Dodgers rookie Emmet Sheehan. Ortiz had a cup of coffee at the big league level last season and pitched relatively well. In extended work this year, that hasn't been the case as he has logged a 5.68 FIP and 1.65 WHIP in 50 1/3 innings. While Ortiz is just one start removed from allowing only one earned run against the Marlins, performances like that have been few and far between. In his most recent outing, Ortiz labored through 4 2/3 innings against the Padres, allowing four earned runs on six hits, including two home runs, and three walks. He's giving up a whopping 10.4 hits and 4.5 walks per nine innings this season and that's a recipe for disaster against a loaded Dodgers lineup. To illustrate just how badly Ortiz has struggled, 84 of the 227 batters he has faced have managed to reach base. Behind Ortiz is a Pirates bullpen that has been effective lately but still owns a less than impressive 4.44 ERA and 1.43 WHIP on the road this season (entering last night's action). Emmet Sheehan will get his fourth career big league start for the Dodgers. Of note, he'll be starting on short rest (four days) for the first time on Tuesday. Sheehan has pitched well but has also had some good fortune, allowing just 5.3 hits per nine innings in a small sample size of just 17 innings. He wasn't particularly sharp in his most recent start in Colorado but his saving grace was the fact that he didn't issue a single walk (he allowed seven hits and three earned runs while striking out only five over five innings). Keep in mind, even at the Double-A level earlier this season, Sheehan issued an average of 3.9 walks per nine innings and he had handed out four free passes in his first 12 innings of work with the Dodgers this year. Los Angeles' bullpen has been overworked this season, logging a collective 318 2/3 innings (entering last night's contest). Dodgers relievers entered this series having posted a 3.94 ERA and 1.31 WHIP with only nine saves converted and six blown at home this season. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
07-03-23 | Braves v. Guardians UNDER 9 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are coming off 'over' results on Sunday but I look for a different story to unfold as they open an Interleague series in Cleveland on Monday. Bryce Elder will get the start for the visiting Braves. He went through a bit of a rough stretch in early June but has since figured it out again, allowing just three earned runs in 19 innings of work over his last three outings. The 'under' has incredibly cashed in 10 of his last 11 trips to the hill. Elder enters this start sporting a 3.79 FIP and 1.13 WHIP on the season which is right in line with his career big league numbers. Rookie Gavin Williams will counter for Cleveland. He apparently shook off the nerves we saw in his first big league outing as he bounced back to hold the Royals to just one hit over seven shutout innings last time out. While we are talking about a small sample size, he has allowed just 10-of-46 batters he has faced to reach base. Keep in mind, Williams got the call to the bigs after logging a 2.39 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 60 1/3 innings spread across Double and Triple-A earlier this season. Both bullpens are in fairly good shape at this stage of the season with neither having eclipsed the 300-inning mark. The Braves 'pen has been lights out lately, sporting a collective 1.23 ERA and 1.05 WHIP over the last seven games. While the Guardians relief corps had a bit of a shaky weekend in Chicago, it does own a stellar 2.24 ERA and 1.04 WHIP with 13 saves converted and only four blown here at home this season. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
07-03-23 | BC v. Toronto +3 | 24-45 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto plus the points over B.C. at 7 pm et on Monday. This is the ultimate letdown spot for the 3-0 B.C. Lions as they come off a stunning 30-6 rout of the Winnipeg Blue Bombers, on the road no less, and head East to face the 2-0 Toronto Argonauts on Monday. Note that B.C. hasn't taken the field since June 22nd while the Argos dusted the lowly Edmonton Elks by a 42-31 score last Sunday (June 25th). I do think the rest vs. rust factor comes into play at this early stage of the season. The Lions defense has been lights out in the early going this season but I don't think their success on that side of the football will prove sustainable. The Argos are still figuring things out with Chad Kelly at quarterback but he's shown a nice mix of passing and running ability and Toronto also boasts one of the league's best running back tandems in Andrew Harris and A.J. Ouelette. We'll grab the points with the Argos here as I do think Toronto has to feel somewhat disrespected being considered the underdog at home in this early season showdown of undefeated teams. Take Toronto (8*). | |||||||
07-03-23 | Astros v. Rangers -110 | 12-11 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas over Houston at 2:05 pm et on Monday. The Astros have taken two of the first three games of this series but I look for the Rangers to earn a split in Monday's series-finale. Cristian Javier will get the start for Houston. He hasn't seemed quite right lately as he checks in having allowed at least four earned runs in three of his last four starts. Over that stretch he struck out just six batters in 17 2/3 innings of work. We've certainly seen some regression from Javier this season as he enters sporting a 4.10 FIP after logging a sparkling 3.16 FIP last year. Note that Javier is also allowing a career-high 8.0 walks per nine innings after yielding an unsustainable 6.0 or less over each of his first three big league seasons. Finally I'll note that Javier will be starting on just four days' rest on Monday. Martin Perez will counter for Texas. He'll make his second straight start on full rest after holding the Tigers to just two earned runs on four hits over six innings in an 8-3 Rangers victory last week. Perez hasn't necessarily enjoyed a banner year to this point, posting a 4.86 FIP and 1.42 WHIP in 16 starts. Those numbers have a lot to do with a rocky start to the season, however. He enters this outing having held six of his last eight opponents to two earned runs or less, working at least six innings in six of those starts as well. The Astros do hold a slight edge in terms of the bullpens but the Rangers do come in in fairly good shape having entered yesterday's game having logged only 18 2/3 relief innings over the last seven games and 12 fewer innings than the Astros relief corps on the season. Take Texas (8*). | |||||||
07-02-23 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Toronto -1.5 runs over Boston at 1:35 pm et on Sunday. Kevin Gausman will once again be tasked with lifting the Blue Jays out of a losing streak as he takes the ball against Garrett Whitlock on Sunday afternoon in Toronto. I expect the Jays to bounce back here. Gausman has posted Cy Young Award-caliber numbers this season, logging a 2.55 FIP and 1.13 WHIP in 17 starts spanning 104 2/3 innings of work. His counterpart Whitlock has pitched reasonably well at times but owns a less than impressive 4.31 FIP and 1.32 WHIP. He'll be starting on short rest (four days) after laboring through an ugly 4 2/3 inning outing against the Marlins last time out (he allowed six earned runs on 11 hits). The Jays bullpen holds an advantage in terms of recent performance, noting that they entered yesterday's action sporting a collective 2.25 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over the last seven contests. In stark contrast, the Red Sox 'pen recorded a 5.33 ERA and 1.65 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Toronto -1.5 runs (10*). | |||||||
07-01-23 | Rays v. Mariners UNDER 7.5 | 3-8 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and Seattle at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair as the Rays rallied for a 15-4 victory in the opener of this series last night. I expect a much different story to unfold on Saturday as we have a premier starting pitching matchup between Tyler Glasnow and George Kirby. Glasnow was lights out in his minor league rehab stint earlier this season and has been good but not great since returning to the Rays starting rotation, posting a 3.84 FIP and 1.32 WHIP in 30 1/3 innings of work. I do think his best days are ahead of him and like the matchup here as he faces the Mariners for the first time in his career. Note that Glasnow is coming off a 12-strikeout performance last time out - his highest strikeout total since April of 2021 - clearly showing that he is rounding back into form. Since scoring 23 runs over a two-game stretch last week, the Mariners have gone into the tank again offensively, scoring four runs or less in five of their last six games. George Kirby is having a tremendous season, having logged a 3.27 FIP and 1.07 WHIP in 15 starts spanning 94 innings. While the Rays lineup is daunting for the best of pitchers, Kirby probably doesn't mind facing them after tossing six shutout innings of four-hit ball against them last season. Behind Kirby is a Mariners bullpen that has struggled lately, but should theoretically be in good shape right now having worked only 271 2/3 innings collectively this season. Mariners relievers have combined to record a 3.88 ERA and 1.33 WHIP this season. The Rays 'pen has been as good as advertised lately, posting a collective 0.91 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over the last seven games. They've had to work 351 1/3 innings on the campaign but that's been more strategy-based than anything else given the nature of their starting rotation. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
07-01-23 | Winnipeg -6 v. Montreal | 17-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Winnipeg minus the points over Montreal at 7 pm et on Saturday. The Alouettes have drawn a favorable schedule to open the season, starting with a home game against the RedBlacks - projected to be one of the weaker teams in the league - followed by a bye week and then a road game against the reeling Tiger-Cats (now 0-3 on the campaign). Here, Montreal will take a step up in class against the Blue Bombers, who are coming off a miserable showing, at home no less, in a 30-6 loss to the B.C. Lions last week. That was an extremely difficult spot for Winnipeg as it returned home and played on just five days' rest after a 45-27 rout of the Roughriders in Regina. Now the Bombers have had time to regroup having not played since last Thursday and I expect a much better showing. Note that the straight-up winner has gone 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings in this series with the only exception being a Bombers 10-point victory as an 11.5-point home favorite back in 2021. Montreal checks in a long-term 37-62 ATS when coming off consecutive ATS victories, as is the case here. Take Winnipeg (8*). | |||||||
06-30-23 | Diamondbacks v. Angels -147 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -147 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles over Arizona at 9:35 pm et on Friday. Something has to give in this one as both the Diamondbacks and Angels are coming off consecutive losses. I like Los Angeles to bounce back as it hands the ball to Griffin Canning against Tommy Henry of Arizona. Henry has inexplicably posted a perfect 6-0 team record over his last six starts. I say inexplicably because he still owns a lofty 5.44 FIP and 1.37 WHIP this season. The D'Backs bats have been bailing him out but I believe they'll be hard-pressed to do so on Friday. Note that Henry's poor overall numbers this season have been virtually on par with the ones he posted during his rookie campaign last year (5.88 FIP and 1.45 WHIP in 47 innings pitched). Behind Henry is a D'Backs bullpen that has been good but certainly not great this season. Arizona's relief corps enters this series sporting a collective 4.36 ERA and 1.29 WHIP on the road this season. Griffin Canning got off to a bit of a shaky start this season but perhaps that was to be expected after he missed the entire 2022 campaign due to a back injury. Canning has certainly rounded into form lately, pitching as well as he has at any point during his big league career, allowing just nine earned runs in 36 innings of work over his last six starts to lower his FIP to 4.53 and his WHIP to 1.16. The Angels have handled Canning the right way this season, allowing him to pitch on full rest (five days or more) in all 12 starts. While Los Angeles' bullpen has suffered some regression lately, it still owns a collective 3.71 ERA and 1.30 WHIP on the season with 28 saves converted and only 13 blown (entering yesterday's action). Closer Carlos Estevez has been kept idle over the last two games so he should be good to go on Friday if needed. He has racked up 20 saves already this season while posting a 1.91 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 33 innings. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
06-30-23 | Edmonton Elks v. Ottawa UNDER 42.5 | 7-26 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Edmonton and Ottawa at 7:30 pm et on Friday. It will be battle of backup (or worse) quarterbacks as two winless teams match up in Ottawa on Friday. Edmonton will turn to Jarrett Doege in place of an ineffective Taylor Cornelius. While Doege did throw a pair of touchdown passes in last Sunday's 43-31 home loss to the Argos, those two scores came in the game's final three minutes when the contest was already well in hand (Toronto was leading 43-17). Doege also threw a pick-six in that game and I tend to think the Elks will handle Doege's workload carefully here as they play on a short week, on the road no less. On the flip side, the Elks defense has actually held up well for stretches this season. Last week, they limited the Argos impressive offense to only one touchdown in the game's first 28 minutes before Toronto was able to open things up. Here, Edmonton will certainly be taking a step down in class after facing the Riders, Lions and Argos in its first three contests. The RedBlacks continue to run a patchwork offense with QB Jeremiah Masoli sidelined. Tyrie Adams will take over at quarterback after Nick Arbuckle was able to accomplish much in the first two games. Adams is known more for his running ability than his passing and I don't envision Ottawa really opening the playbook for him here. The RedBlacks have actually run the football only 25 times through the first two games but that's been largely game-script dependent as they've been trailing most of the way. Here, in a home favorite role, I expect them to use their ground attack more generously, especially when you consider the Elks have allowed more than 100 rushing yards in all three games this season. Defensively, the RedBlacks will be fresh having not played in over two weeks. They allowed just one offensive touchdown in the game's first 38 minutes against Calgary last time out. Credit Ottawa for allowing a grand total of just 41 points in its first two games against the Alouettes and Stempeders. The Elks and RedBlacks have met six times since 2019 and we've seen a fairly low scoring floor with three of those six contests totalling 32 points or less with a low-water mark of 28 points. Only one of those six games reached more than 43 points. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
06-29-23 | Phillies v. Cubs UNDER 9 | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. We saw a high-scoring affair between these two teams last night as the Phillies delivered an 8-5 victory - their second in a row to open this series. I expect a different story to unfold on Thursday as Philadelphia sends Taijuan Walker to the hill against Kyle Hendricks of the Cubs. Walker has turned things around after a shaky start to the season, allowing just two earned runs on 14 hits over his last four starts, covering a span of 26 innings. He should be happy to be facing the Cubs, noting that he's gone up against them four times since 2021, yielding just five earned runs in 22 innings of work. Note that his last four outings against Chicago have totalled 3, 3, 5 and 4 runs. Kyle Hendricks has faced a similar path to that of Walker this season, albeit on a shorter time frame as he started the year on the injured list. Hendricks has lowered his FIP to 3.56 and his WHIP to 0.98 after holding his last three opponents to only three earned runs in 19 1/3 innings. You'd be hard-pressed to find two bullpens in better shape as we head toward the end of June. The Phillies 'pen entered last night's action having logged just 276 innings collectively this season and only 22 1/3 innings over the last seven games. Meanwhile, the Cubs relief corps had worked just 267 2/3 innings including only 24 over the last seven contests. Thanks to trailing for the majority of the first two games in this series, Chicago was able to keep two of its key relief arms in Mark Leiter Jr. and closer Adbert Alzolay idle. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
06-28-23 | White Sox +108 v. Angels | 11-5 | Win | 108 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. The White Sox have dropped the first two games in this series as their bats have gone silent against the Angels pitching staff. I do think they're set up well to avoid a third straight loss on Wednesday, however, as they hand the ball to Lucas Giolito against Jaime Barria of the Angels. Giolito is enjoying a bit of a renaissance season after a down year in 2022. His hits and walks allowed were up considerably last year and as a result his WHIP hovered around 1.44. This year, he's lowered that WHIP to 1.20 with his FIP sitting at 4.19. Giolito certainly brings solid form into this outing as he has allowed just four earned runs in 24 innings of work over his last four starts. He should be pleased to be facing the Angels as he owns a 3-1 record with a 3.97 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in eight career outings against them. Behind Giolito is a White Sox bullpen that has logged a respectable 3.67 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over the last seven games. The Angels relief corps, meanwhile, has posted a collective 4.32 ERA and 1.44 WHIP over the same stretch and used two of its key bullpen arms in Jacob Webb and closer Carlos Estevez in each of the first two games in this series. As I mentioned, Jaime Barria will get his fifth spot start of the season for the Angels. He has fared reasonably well with a 3.69 FIP and 1.06 WHIP across 16 outings spanning 46 1/3 innings this season. In fact, the Angels have won all four of his starts this season. I'm not convinced some of his numbers are sustainable, however, as he has allowed just 6.8 hits and 0.8 home runs per nine innings. Note that over the course of his big league career, Barria has yielded 8.5 hits and 1.4 home runs per nine innings. This will be his second start against the White Sox this season and while the Halos won his first by a 12-3 score, Barria wasn't exactly dominant, allowing four hits and three walks while striking out six over five innings. Take Chicago (8*). | |||||||
06-28-23 | Tigers v. Rangers -1.5 | Top | 2-10 | Win | 100 | 23 h 43 m | Show |
American League Game of the Week. My selection is on Texas -1.5 runs over Detroit at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. After a red hot start to the season, the Rangers have cooled off considerably - certainly at the plate. I look for them to get the best of the Tigers pitching staff on Wednesday, however. Joey Wentz will get another turn in the Detroit starting rotation out of necessity only. The Tigers are missing a number of regular starters right now, leaving Wentz as one of the only options to hold down one of the five spots. He checks in sporting a 5.46 FIP and 1.58 WHIP on the campaign and will have to face a Rangers club that has feasted on left-handed starting pitching to the tune of a 14-9 record, averaging 6.6 runs per game. To make matters worse, Wentz will be starting on short rest (four days) after an exhausting five-inning effort that saw him allow five hits, two of them home runs, four walks and four runs (three of them earned) against the Twins. The Rangers will be getting their second look at Wentz in less than a month after frustratingly plating just one run on seven hits over 4 2/3 innings against him on May 31st. Dane Dunning will counter for Texas. He is quietly enjoying a fine season, logging a 3.93 FIP and 1.17 WHIP in 71 2/3 innings of work. Dunning has gone winless in his last three outings against the Tigers but all three of those starts came in Detroit. He's faced the Tigers twice in his career here in Texas with the Rangers winning both of those contests by multiple runs. If there's an advantage the Rangers have in the latter innings in this one it's the fact that their bullpen entered last night's contest having worked a collective 64 innings fewer than that of the Tigers this season. Over the last seven games alone Detroit's 'pen had logged 30 innings. With Wednesday's starter Wentz having lasted beyond the fifth inning just once in his last seven outings, it could be another busy night for the Tigers relief corps. Take Texas -1.5 runs (10*). | |||||||
06-27-23 | Tigers v. Rangers -1.5 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas -1.5 runs over Detroit at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Rangers dropped the opener of this series last night - their third straight defeat. I look for them to bounce back on Tuesday, however, as they hand the ball to Martin Perez against Matt Manning of the Tigers. Perez hasn't been able to match the terrific numbers he posted last season, logging a 4.97 FIP and 1.45 WHIP. With that said, he does check in having lasted at least six innings in five of his last seven starts and has given up just five earned runs on seven hits over his last two outings covering a span of 13 innings. Matt Manning will make just his third start of the season for the Tigers. In those two outings he recorded a 7.29 FIP and 1.29 WHIP. He has also pitched just 8 2/3 at the Triple-A level, allowing 16-of-39 batters to reach base while recording a 1.85 WHIP. The two bullpens are virtually a wash in this matchup although the Tigers relief corps has certainly been more taxed lately, logging a collective 30 innings over the last seven games, including 8 1/3 innings last night after starter Matt Boyd was forced to leave due to injury. Take Texas -1.5 runs (8*). | |||||||
06-27-23 | Brewers v. Mets OVER 9 | Top | 2-7 | Push | 0 | 22 h 33 m | Show |
National League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and New York at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. I'm expecting a high-scoring affair in Queens on Tuesday as the Brewers and Mets continue their four-game series. Milwaukee will give the start to veteran Julio Teheran. He's burst back on the scene recording a 1.53 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in 35 1/3 innings of work this season. I simply wonder how long he can keep it up. Note that the last time we saw Teheran pitch a full big league season was in 2019 when he logged a 4.66 FIP and 1.32 WHIP with the Braves. In limited work in 2020 and 2021, Teheran recorded an 8.62 and 6.37 FIP, respectively. At the minor league level this year, Teheran had posted a 5.62 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in 40 innings with the Padres Triple-A affiliate. Behind Teheran is a Brewers bullpen that has pitched well lately but still checks in sporting a collective 4.47 ERA and 1.43 WHIP on the road this season (entering last night's action). David Peterson makes his return to the Mets starting rotation, starting a MLB game for the first time in over a month. Keep in mind, he has struggled to the tune of a 4.78 FIP and 1.74 WHIP at the big league level this season. He hasn't fared much better in the minors, posting a 4.86 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in 37 innings at Triple-A. The Brewers don't figure to be a favorable opponent for Peterson to return against, noting they've lit him up to the tune of nine earned runs in eight innings in two games against him going back to last year. The Mets bullpen entered this series having recorded a collective 4.24 ERA and 1.59 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
06-26-23 | White Sox v. Angels UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 51 m | Show |
A.L. Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Monday. The Angels scored a whopping 25 runs in Saturday's win over the Rockies at hitter-friendly Coors Field but it was right back to the doldrums on Sunday as they plated only three runs, losing for the fifth time in their last six games, including a pair of shutout losses. It's been a similar struggle for the White Sox offense as they've scored four runs or less in eight of their last 10 games overall. Dylan Cease will get the start for Chicago on Monday. After a shaky start to the season, he's settled down, allowing two earned runs or less in each of his last four outings. Cease owns a 3.99 FIP and 1.32 WHIP on the season - rather pedestrian numbers to be sure - however, those numbers have been trending doward. Cease faced the Angels once last season, tossing seven shutout innings in a 3-0 victory. Reid Detmers will counter for Los Angeles. He'll have the advantage of facing the White Sox for the first time in his career and comes in hot, having allowed just two earned runs in 18 2/3 innings over his last three starts. What I like about Detmers is the fact that he's yet to be asked to pitch on short rest (four days) this season. He checks in sporting a career-best 3.27 FIP and 1.36 WHIP. As far as the bullpens go, the White Sox relief corps has pitched much better lately, entering yesterday's action sporting a collective 4.05 ERA and 1.28 WHIP over the last seven games. While the Angels 'pen has struggled lately, it still went into Sunday's action with a solid 3.65 ERA and 1.29 WHIP, not to mention 27 converted saves and only 13 blown. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
06-26-23 | Tigers v. Rangers -1.5 | 7-2 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas -1.5 runs over Detroit at 8:05 pm et on Monday. The Tigers have been playing reasonably well but I don't believe this is a good matchup at all for them as they head to Texas to face a Rangers club that's coming off back-to-back losses to the Yankees in the Bronx over the weekend. Matt Boyd will get the call for the visiting Tigers. He'll be starting on short rest (four day) which is notable as he has not fared well in that situation this season, allowing 16 earned runs in 22 1/3 innings. Boyd owns a pedestrian 4.25 FIP and 1.32 WHIP in 14 starts spanning 70 1/3 innings this season. While the Tigers bullpen has held up well this season, I do think regression is on the way, noting they've logged 30 innings over the last seven games alone and 303 1/3 innings on the season. That's a full 59 innings more than Texas' relief corps. Speaking of the Rangers 'pen, it has been terrific lately, posting a 2.82 ERA and 1.08 WHIP over the last seven games. Andrew Heaney will start for the Rangers on Monday. He's been good but certainly not great this season. With that being said, he has managed to hold eight straight opponents to three earned runs or less. For whatever reason, the Rangers bats seem to come alive for Heaney here at home, plating double-digit run totals in four of his seven home outings this season. Take Texas -1.5 runs (8*). | |||||||
06-25-23 | Astros v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | 6-5 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Los Angeles at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. These two teams were involved in a high-scoring affair last night as the Dodgers rallied for an 8-7 victory. I expect a much lower-scoring contest on Sunday as Houston looks to salvage the finale of this three-game series. Hunter Brown will get the start for the Astros. He's coming off a poor outing against the Mets as he allowed six earned runs in just 5 2/3 innings of work. On a positive note, he has worked at least into the sixth inning in six of his last seven starts. He'll also be making his fourth straight start on full rest (five days). The Astros bullpen has admittedly struggled lately but I do think it's only a matter of time before they turn it around, noting they entered last night's contest sporting a 3.34 ERA and 1.20 WHIP on the road this season. Like Brown, Tony Gonsolin is coming off a rocky outing last time out, yielding seven earned runs over 5 2/3 innings. He still owns a 2.92 ERA and 1.01 WHIP this season. The right hander has posted a 4.11 FIP, allowing onlyi 58-of-217 batters to reach base. The Dodgers bullpen has slowly been rounding back into form, entering Saturday's contest with a 4.25 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over the last seven contests. On the season, they've converted 19 saves while blowing only seven. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
06-24-23 | Astros v. Dodgers OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
National League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Los Angeles at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. We saw a low-scoring game to open this series last night but I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday. Ronel Blanco will take the ball for the visiting Astros. While he's posted terrific minor league numbers for stretches over the course of his career, that hasn't translated to success at the big league level. Last season, Blanco recorded a 5.32 FIP and 1.90 WHIP in very limited work with the Astros, pitching just 6 1/3 innings. So far this season, he's logged 29 innings with the big club, posting a 5.58 FIP and 1.69 WHIP. Of the 132 batters he has faced, 50 have reached base. All told, Blanco has allowed 10.4 hits and 5.0 walks per nine innings at the major league level. Behind Blanco is an Astros bullpen that entered last night's contest sporting a collective 6.23 ERA and 1.69 WHIP over the last seven games. Rookie Bobby Miller will counter for Los Angeles. After a red hot start to the campaign, he was brought back to Earth against the Giants last time out, yielding seven earned runs in 5 2/3 innings. I can't help but think more regression is coming for Miller, noting that he has held opponents to only 6.0 hits and 0.3 home runs per nine innings this season. At the Triple-A level earlier this season, Miller posted a 5.65 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 14 1/3 innings, allowing twice as many home runs (2) in around half the number of innings that he has at the major league level. The Dodgers 'pen entered last night's game with a collective 6.07 ERA and 1.42 WHIP over the last seven contests with only six converted saves and six blown. The Astros offense has been hit-or-miss lately but has shown a fairly strong bounce-back pattern lately, scoring 3, 7, 1, 4, 10 and 2 runs over their last six games. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
06-24-23 | Saskatchewan v. Calgary UNDER 46 | 29-26 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Saskatchewan and Calgary at 7 pm et on Saturday. The Roughriders enter this game on the heels of two straight 'over' results to open this season but I look for that trend to change on Saturday. This is somewhat of a statement game for Saskatchewan after last week's ugly defensive effort against the Blue Bombers. While the Riders defense was generally awful in that game, I came away more concerned about their offense with veteran WR Derel Walker sidelined for the next six weeks. The Riders found the end zone three times in the game's first 33+ minutes but then never scored another touchdown the rest of the way, despite the wide-open nature of that ultimately lopsided affair. Here, they'll go on the road to face a Stampeders defense that should be able to generate plenty of pressure on QB Trevor Harris. Calgary's offense has sputtered a little in the early going this season but did perform better in last week's win in Ottawa. I do think it will be taking a step up in class here, however, and I believe the jury is still out on the Stamps offense with the likes of WR Reggie Begleton and RB Ka'deem Carey sidelined. Calgary managed only one offensive touchdown in the first 38 minutes and change against Ottawa last week. While we've seen some high-scoring matchups between these two teams over the years, the scoring floor has been around the 37-point mark while the ceiling hasn't been hit with much consistency going back to 2019. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 8-1 with the Riders playing on the road off an ATS loss over the last three seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 44.2 points. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
06-23-23 | Astros v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Friday. This game features a sneaky-good starting pitching matchup as J.P. France takes the ball for the Astros against rookie Emmet Sheehan of the Dodgers. France's early big league returns have been somewhat mixed as he has posted a 4.94 FIP and 1.20 WHIP. With that said, he has settled in lately, working at least into the sixth inning in five straight starts entering Friday's contest. Last time out he held a surging Reds lineup to only two earned runs in 6 2/3 innings. Emmet Sheehan absolutely lit it up at the Double-A level before getting the call to the big club and proceeded to toss six shutout innings against the Giants last weekend. In the minors, Sheehan had recorded a 1.86 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in 53 1/3 innings before getting the call to the majors. Only 52 of the 211 batters he had faced managed to reach base. Both bullpens have struggled lately and in the case of the Dodgers has been a general disappointment this season. With that said, both teams are coming off an off day on Thursday meaning it should be all hands on deck for this one and I believe both starters are capable of working deep into the game pitching on full or extended rest. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
06-23-23 | Montreal +3 v. Hamilton | Top | 38-12 | Win | 100 | 34 h 15 m | Show |
Game of the Month. My selection is on Montreal plus the points over Hamilton at 7:30 pm et on Friday. While the Tiger-Cats are licking their wounds following their second straight loss to open the season, the Alouettes are fresh off their bye week, which came on the heels of a season-opening victory over Ottawa. Als QB Cody Fajardo didn't look great in his regular season debut with his new team, which perhaps was to be expected. I do expect a better showing from him following an extra week of practice and perhaps taking a step down in class against a Ti-Cats defense that hasn't shown a pulse through two games. Back in Week 1, Hamilton allowed three Winnipeg touchdowns in less than an eight-minute stretch in the first quarter. Last Sunday, the Ti-Cats yielded three touchdowns in just over a 17-minute stretch in the first half against Toronto. You have to wonder whether the Hamilton offense is capable of keeping up here as it deals with a number of key injuries. QB Bo Levi Mitchell isn't expected to play on Friday. It will also be missing three offensive linemen, with a fourth - Dayton Black - suiting up but not 100% healthy. As you would expect, the Als are at virtually full strength following an early season bye week. Only DB Nafees Lyon checks in as questionable for Friday's game. Here, we'll note that the Ti-Cats are now 0-6 ATS in the month of June going back to last season, outscored by an average margin of 11.2 points in those games. Meanwhile, the Als are 9-2 ATS when involved in games where the line settled between +3 and -3 since the start of last season, which is likely to be the case here, outscoring foes by 7.0 points on average in that situation. Take Montreal (10*). | |||||||
06-23-23 | Braves -150 v. Reds | Top | 10-11 | Loss | -150 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
Non-Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Atlanta over Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Friday. Something has to give as the red hot Braves and Reds match up in Cincinnati on Friday. Atlanta has reeled off eight straight wins following yesterday's extra innings victory in Philadelphia. Cincinnati is riding an 11-game winning streak after a sweep of the lowly Rockies. Here, I look for the Braves to continue their winning ways as they hand the ball to impressive rookie A.J. Smith-Shawver against Luke Weaver of the Reds. Atlanta appears to have another good one in Smith-Shawver. He has made two big league starts this season, posting a lofty 4.47 FIP but an impressive 0.98 WHIP. That FIP is a little inflated after he gave up a pair of home runs in an 8-3 win over the Rockies last time out. Note that Smith-Shawver had allowed just one home run in 33 innings of work at the minor league level earlier this season. In those minor league outings he posted a sparkling 1.09 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. It's been a much different story for Luke Weaver. He checks in sporting a 5.48 FIP and 1.54 WHIP in 11 starts spanning 57 innings this season. On Friday, he'll be starting on short rest (four days) after getting lit up for 10 hits and five earned runs in five innings against the Astros last time out. Great American Ballpark hasn't been a good fit as he has logged a 7.27 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in five starts covering a span of 26 innings here this season. While the two bullpens are virtually a wash, it's worth noting that the Reds relief corps is approaching 300 combined innings pitched this season. That's nearly 30 innings more than that of the Braves. Atlanta has the benefit of having had two of the last four days off due to a rain out earlier this week. Take Atlanta (10*). | |||||||
06-22-23 | BC v. Winnipeg OVER 49 | 30-6 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between B.C. and Winnipeg at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. Something has to give on Thursday in Winnipeg as the Lions enter sporting an 0-2 o/u mark while the Blue Bombers have seen both of their contests go 'over' the total. Despite key injuries on both offenses, I'm anticipating a relatively high-scoring affair. The Lions will be without perhaps their top offensive threat in WR Dominique Rhymes as he deals with a foot injury. Vernon Adams Jr. has proven to be an effective 'point guard' type distributor in this offense and I'm confident we'll see others step up including RB Taquan Mizzell who has not only run for 174 yards in two games but has also hauled in seven catches. The Bombers have yet to hit their stride defensively, most recently allowing a banged-up Saskatchewan offense to find the end zone three times in the game's first 34 minutes last week. On the flip side, the Winnipeg offense has been electric early on. Last week it scored three offensive touchdowns over a 21-minute stretch last week against the Riders. The Bombers will likely be without RB Brady Oliveira on Thursday. I do think that forces their hand a little here and limits their ability to churn out long, clock-eating drives. The Lions have to realize they'll need to produce a lot more offense than they did against the punchless Elks last Saturday if they want to keep their flawless record intact. Note that the 'under' has cashed in the last two meetings in this series but we haven't seen three consecutive matchups between these two teams stay 'under' the total since 2012-13. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
06-22-23 | Mariners +105 v. Yankees | 10-2 | Win | 105 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle over New York at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Yankees have taken the first two games of this series, successfully bouncing back following a sweep at the hands of the Red Sox last weekend. I look for the Mariners to answer back on Thursday as they send Bryan Woo to the mound against Domingo German. Woo is anything but a household name but has impressed in three big league starts this season, posting a 3.68 FIP and 1.30 WHIP. Last time out he struck out a career-high nine batters over just 5 2/3 innings in a 3-2 victory over the White Sox. Note that Woo got the call-up after logging a 2.05 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in 44 innings pitched at the Double-A level earlier this season. While pitching at Yankees Stadium can be daunting for an unseasoned starter, I do think Woo has had enough time to get the nerves out (note that he was tagged for six earned runs in just two innings in Texas in his 'Welcome to the Show' moment earlier this month). Behind Woo is a Mariners bullpen that continues to pitch well. Seattle's relief corps has combined to post a 2.53 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over the last seven games. Domingo German has had an up-and-down campaign to this point. While he has managed to record an impressive 1.09 WHIP, his 4.64 FIP tells a much different story. That low WHIP has a lot to do with good fortune as he's allowed just 6.8 hits per nine innings. Note that German has never allowed fewer than 7.9 hits per nine innings in a full big league season. The Yankees prevailed by a 10-4 score in German's lone previous start against Seattle this year, that coming back on May 29th. Keep in mind, the Mariners did plate four earned runs on seven hits while walking three times and striking out on only four occasions over 6 1/3 innings. New York's bullpen has been somewhat overworked this season - certainly in comparison with that of the Mariners (the Yankees have logged just shy of 37 more bullpen innings this season). Yankee relievers have combined to post a 5.04 ERA and 1.24 WHIP over the last seven contests. Here at home they've converted only nine saves while blowing seven. Take Seattle (8*). | |||||||
06-21-23 | Dodgers v. Angels -144 | 2-0 | Loss | -144 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the Angels over the Dodgers at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Dodgers took the opener of this brief two-game series by a 2-0 score behind another solid outing from Clayton Kershaw last night. I expect the Angels to bounce back on Wednesday as they hand the ball to Shohei Ohtani against Michael Grove of the Dodgers. Grove has posted terrific numbers at the minor league level over the last couple of seasons. It hasn't translated to success in the bigs, however. Last season, Grove logged a 5.16 FIP and 1.43 WHIP in 29 1/3 innings of work with the Dodgers. So far this year, he has pitched 30 innings with the big club, recording a 5.75 FIP and 1.60 WHIP. Of the 137 batters he has faced, 49 have managed to reach base. Behind Grove is a Dodgers bullpen that continues to struggle, having posted a collective 5.01 ERA and 1.37 WHIP on the season with those numbers ballooning to 7.37 and 1.48, respectively, over the last seven games. Shohei Ohtani hasn't been able to match the Cy Young Award-caliber numbers he posted last season but has still been effective this season, logging a 4.07 FIP and 1.05 WHIP. His command hasn't quite been there with his walks issued up considerably over last year. With that being said, he has limited two of his last three opponents to just a single walk (working six innings in both of those contests). He'll have the advantage of facing the Dodgers for the first time on Wednesday. As I've noted on multiple occasions this season, the Angels bullpen has impressed, recording a collective 3.59 ERA and 1.28 WHIP with 27 saves converted and only 12 blown. They've also logged just 20 innings over the last seven games, leaving them in good position on Wednesday. Take the Angels (8*). | |||||||
06-21-23 | Red Sox v. Twins -120 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
A.L. Non-Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Minnesota over Boston at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Red Sox have blasted the Twins in the first two games of this series as Minnesota's struggles continue having dropped five of its last six contests. I look for the Twins to finally answer back on Wednesday as they send Sonny Gray to the hill against Garrett Whitlock. Whitlock has posted solid overall numbers this season but certainly isn't immune to shaky outings. Note that he has given up at least four earned runs in three of his seven starts this season. He checks in having allowed just three earned runs over his last two starts but hasn't held more than two straight opponents to three earned runs or fewer since May of last year. Sonny Gray didn't have his best stuff last time out, lasting only four earned runs against the Tigers in an eventual 8-4 loss. He still owns a stellar 2.56 FIP and 1.28 WHIP in 14 starts spanning 76 innings of work this season. In eight home outings he has logged a 1.96 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Gray gave up just one earned run over five innings in his lone start against Boston last season but the Twins lost that game by a 5-4 score. The two bullpens are a virtual wash in this matchup although it is worth noting that Minnesota entered last night's game having logged 28 2/3 innings fewer in relief this season, theoretically leaving that group fresher as we approach the final week of June. Take Minnesota (10*). | |||||||
06-20-23 | Mets v. Astros -127 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 23 h 15 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Houston over New York at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. This should be an emotionally-charged contest on Tuesday in Houston as Justin Verlander returns to Minute Maid Park to face his former team. The Mets jumped all over Astros rookie Hunter Brown last night but I expect a different story to unfold against Framber Valdez on Tuesday. Valdez checks in sporting a sparkling 2.84 FIP and 1.03 WHIP in 14 starts spanning 91 innings of work this season. He faced the Mets once last season, tossing eight shutout innings in a 9-1 victory in Queens. Verlander is having a very un-Verlander like season, posting a 4.43 FIP and 1.22 WHIP in 45 innings. His hits, home runs and walks allowed per nine innings are way up while his strikeouts are down considerably compared to his Cy Young Award-winning 2022 campaign. Whether he's 100% healthy or not is certainly up for debate. I do expect the slumping Astros to get to him on Tuesday. The bullpens are virtually a wash in this matchup but I do like the fact that Houston's 'pen entered last night's game having logged a collective 24 innings fewer than New York's this season. Interestingly, the Astros relief corps entered this series with a 3.10 ERA and 1.13 WHIP along with five saves converted and only one blown in just north of 80 innings pitched in Interleague play this season. Take Houston (10*). | |||||||
06-19-23 | Cubs -117 v. Pirates | Top | 8-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
N.L. Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Chicago over Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The Cubs failed to complete the sweep of the Orioles yesterday, snapping their five-game winning streak in the process. I look for them to bounce back on Monday as they hand the ball to Drew Smyly against Osvaldo Bido of the Pirates in a rematch of a meeting last week. Smyly doesn't own terrific career numbers against the Pirates but he should he pleased to be making this start in Pittsburgh. Note that he has faced the Pirates three times at PNC Park, allowing just four earned runs including only one home run in 16 innings. Smyly's numbers this season are in line with the ones he posted last year, logging a 4.33 FIP and 1.20 WHIP. I do think we'll see him pitch better than he did against the Pirates last week, when he yielded five earned runs over six innings. Osvaldo Bido gets the call for Pittsburgh out of necessity only. He actually held up well in his big league debut against the Cubs last week, allowing just one earned run over four innings. Note that he's been in the Pirates organization since 2017 so the fact that he's just now getting a chance in the Show is telling in my opinion. At the Triple-A level this season he had posted a 4.55 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 55 1/3 innings of work. Only once previously has he recorded an ERA lower than four in a minor league campaign and that was back in 2019 when he pitched at the Single-A and A+ levels. The bullpens are virtually a was on the season but the Cubs relief corps has been marginally better over the last seven games (Pittsburgh's 'pen entered yesterday's contest sporting a collective 9.85 ERA and 1.95 WHIP over that stretch). I do like the fact that Chicago didn't use two of its most effective relievers in Mark Leiter Jr. and Adbert Alzolay in yesterday's game. The Pirates are missing a key late inning arm in Jose Hernandez as he's currently on the I.L. Take Chicago (10*). | |||||||
06-18-23 | White Sox v. Mariners -1.5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 131 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
Non-Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Seattle -1.5 runs over Chicago at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. These two teams have split the first two games of this series but I look for the Mariners to answer back in Sunday's series finale. Lance Lynn will get another turn in the starting rotation for the White Sox, despite his struggles. Lynn has been lit up in his last two outings and will now start on short rest (four days') for a third consecutive outing. Lynn has seen his FIP balloon to 5.43 and his WHIP to 1.57 on the campaign. Mariners rookie Bryce Miller got off to a terrific start this season before getting roughed up by the Yankees and Rangers in consecutive outings. He still owns a solid 3.36 FIP and 0.93 WHIP in eight starts this season, spanning 44 1/3 innings. The Mariners bullpen has logged a collective 2.28 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over the last seven contests. Meanwhile, the White Sox 'pen has posted a 4.55 ERA and 1.41 WHIP over the same stretch. In fact, Chicago has blown four saves over the last seven games alone. Take Seattle -1.5 runs (10*). | |||||||
06-17-23 | Guardians -123 v. Diamondbacks | 3-6 | Loss | -123 | 14 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland over Arizona at 10:10 pm et on Saturday. The Diamondbacks took the opener of this series last night as Zac Gallen turned in another fine pitching performance in an eventual 5-1 victory. I look for a different story to unfold on Saturday as Cleveland hands the ball to its own ace, Shane Bieber, against Tommy Henry of Arizona. Bieber hasn't exactly posted Cy Young Award-caliber numbers this season but has been solid nonetheless, logging a 3.82 FIP and 1.22 WHIP in 14 starts spanning 87 2/3 innings of work. He was lights out over seven innings despite pitching on short rest (four days) in his most recent outing. Here, he'll be back on regular rest against a D'Backs team that he handled without much trouble last season, allowing two earned runs over six innings. Tommy Henry may not be long for a big league rotation given the results he's posted over the last season-plus. Henry sports a 5.62 FIP and 1.38 WHIP in 50 innings this season after posting a 5.88 FIP and 1.45 WHIP in 47 innings last year. Note that he'll be starting on just four days' rest on Saturday. The last time we saw him do that he was tagged for four earned runs in just 4 2/3 innings against the lowly A's on May 16th. The Guardians hold a significant edge in terms of the bullpens, entering last night's action sporting a collective 1.99 ERA and 1.14 WHIP over the last seven contests. Arizona's 'pen entered Friday's action having recorded a 4.71 ERA and 1.43 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Cleveland (8*). | |||||||
06-17-23 | Edmonton Elks v. BC OVER 46 | Top | 0-22 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 49 m | Show |
Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Edmonton and B.C. at 7 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams were involved in relatively low-scoring affairs last week with Edmonton falling by a 17-13 score at home against Saskatchewan and B.C. delivering a 25-15 win in Calgary. I'm anticipating a much higher-scoring affair as they match up in Vancouver on Saturday. While Edmonton is expected to be one of the league's worst teams this season, I do think their offense will be better than it showed last week against Saskatchewan. The Elks have plenty of talent at the wide receiver position with veterans Eugene Lewis and Emmanuel Arceneaux leading the way. Lewis showed an excellent rapport with QB Taylor Cornelius last week, hauling in five catches for 148 yards and a touchdown. While the Elks defense seemed to hold up well against the Riders, an injury to Saskatchewan's offensive focal point WR Derel Walker likely played a role in that. Here, the Elks will be up against a Lions offense that was humming in last week's win in Calgary. B.C. found the end zone twice in the game's first 16 minutes and QB Vernon Adams Jr. contributed two passing touchdowns and one on the ground. On the flip side, the Lions defense played exceptionally well but did benefit from Stampeders RB Ka'Deem Carey going down to injury, not to mention QB Jake Maier working with a depleted wide receiving corps. The 'over' has cashed in three of the last four meetings in this series with a 'floor' of 45 points. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
06-16-23 | Winnipeg -6.5 v. Saskatchewan | 45-27 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Winnipeg minus the points over Saskatchewan at 9 pm et on Friday. Mosaic Stadium in Regina has traditionally been tough on opposing teams but perhaps not so much in recent years as the Roughriders have struggled to find consistency with plenty of turnover in terms of their roster. QB Trevor Harris seemed to be developing a good chemistry with WR Derek Walker but now Walker is sidelined with a knee injury while Harris battles through a hip injury of his own. Note that after Walker hauled in a touchdown in the game's first six minutes against Edmonton last week, the Riders never reached the end zone the rest of the way in an eventual 17-13 victory. That was against what projects to be one of the league's weakest teams in the Elks. The Riders will face a much tougher test against the Blue Bombers here. Winnipeg did pull out a 42-31 victory over Hamilton last week but it will likely still be in a foul mood after allowing the Tiger-Cats to claw their way back from a 29-4 halftime deficit. Note that Winnipeg found the end zone three times in the first quarter alone and didn't allow an offensive touchdown until the game was well in hand ahead 32-10 with less than four minutes remaining in the third quarter. Hamilton ultimately made the final score a little more flattering than it probably should have been thanks to a blocked punt returned for a touchdown in the third quarter and an interception return for another score in the fourth quarter. I'm confident we'll see the Bombers clean things up this week. Winnipeg has reeled off seven straight wins in this series going back to 2019 with those victories coming by an average margin of 14.9 points. Take Winnipeg (8*). | |||||||
06-16-23 | Reds v. Astros UNDER 9 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Friday. Two unheralded starters will match up as the Reds and Astros do battle in the opener of their three-game series on Friday. I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair than most. Andrew Abbott has battled command issues but has still yet to allow an earned run in his first two big league starts, logging 11 2/3 innings of six-hit ball. Abbott has posted a 3.36 FIP and 1.11 WHIP in those two outings, seemingly picking up where he left off after recording a 2.50 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 54 innings of work at the minor league level. It's worth mentioning that the Astros have walked only 212 times as a team this season, among the lowest totals in the majors. Behind Abbott is a Reds bullpen that enjoyed an off day on Thursday and has been better than expected this season, recording a collective 3.80 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. On the road, Cincinnati has converted 14 saves while blowing only five. J.P. France will take the ball for Houston. He's had an up-and-down start to his big league career and is coming off an outing in which he issued an uncharacteristic six walks against the Guardians. With that said, he has worked at least into the sixth inning in four straight starts. The Reds just got finished beating up on one of the worst pitching staffs in baseball in Kansas City but should find the going a little tougher in Houston. Note that the Astros bullpen has been terrific this season, posting a collective 3.25 ERA and 1.27 WHIP with 17 saves converted and only seven blown. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
06-15-23 | Guardians +124 v. Padres | Top | 8-6 | Win | 124 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland over San Diego at 8:40 pm et on Thursday. The Padres have won the first two games of this series and are playing some of their best baseball of the season right now but I'm not necessarily ready to buy in. Logan Allen will get the start for the visiting Guardians as they look to avoid the sweep in this three-game interleague series. Allen didn't pitch particularly well but hung in there and lasted six innings against the Astros in an eventual 10-9 victory last time out. He has posted respectable numbers this season with a 3.43 FIP and 1.39 WHIP through nine starts spanning 51 2/3 innings. Ryan Weathers will counter for the Padres as they push Yu Darvish back a day to face the Rays on Friday. Weathers owns a 4.93 ERA on the campaign and probably hasn't even been as good as that lofty number, posting a 5.26 FIP and 1.49 WHIP. He's unlikely to work deep into this game as he pitches on just four days' rest (even though he did throw only 40+ pitches against the Rockies last time out). Note that the Padres bullpen enters this game sporting a collective 4.94 ERA And 1.31 WHIP over the last seven contests. At home this season, San Diego has only converted five saves while blowing four. The Guardians on the other hand check in with a 1.82 bullpen ERA and 1.01 WHIP over their last seven games. Cleveland's relief corps has been among the best in baseball this season, logging a 3.02 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with 23 saves converted and 13 blown. Take Cleveland (10*). | |||||||
06-15-23 | Calgary v. Ottawa UNDER 43.5 | 26-15 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Calgary and Ottawa at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams were involved in relatively low-scoring season-openers last week and I expect a similar story to unfold as they match up in Ottawa on Thursday. Calgary couldn't find the end zone until B.C. had the game well in hand past the midway point of the fourth quarter last week, up 22-6. It wasn't the best defensive performance from the Stampeders either as they allowed two touchdowns in the game's first 16 minutes but they did hold the Lions out of the end zone for a 32-minute stretch from there. Here, they'll take a step down in class against what appears to be a punchless Ottawa offense still trying to figure things out with QB Jeremiah Masoli sidelined (Nick Arbuckle is likely to start again this week after an ineffective no touchdown and three interception performance against Montreal last Saturday). The RedBlacks failed to score a touchdown in their loss to the Alouettes last week. On a positive note, their defense held up well, allowing a touchdown in the first three minutes of the game but holding the Als out of the end zone for the remainder of the contest. They'll catch a break here as the Stamps are expected to be without RB Ka'Deem Carey - one of the league's best rushers. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
06-15-23 | Phillies v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | 5-4 | Push | 0 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Arizona at 3:40 pm et on Thursday. After a pair of wild, high-scoring affairs to open this series we saw the two offenses take a bit of a breather last night. I expect the scoring to pick back up on Thursday afternoon as Philadelphia sends Aaron Nola to the hill against Ryne Nelson of Arizona. Nola has faced the D'Backs four times in his career, posting a lofty 8.41 ERA and 1.67 WHIP with those four contests totalling 13, 9, 13 and 15 runs. While the right-hander has posted solid overall numbers this season, his recent results haven't been stellar as he has allowed at least four earned runs in three of his last four outings. Note that he'll be making his third consecutive start on short rest (four days) here. Nelson has not looked comfortable at all pitching at Chase Field this season, logging a 6.62 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in seven home starts. He has generally struggled against teams getting a second (or third, or fourth) look at him over the course of his young career. Here, the Phillies will be seeing him for the second time this season. Note that Nelson owns a 4.67 FIP and 1.46 WHIP this season with 98 of the 289 batters he has faced managing to reach base. Neither bullpen brings much confidence into this contest with the Phillies relief corps having posted a collective 8.34 ERA and 1.72 WHIP over the last seven games and the D'Backs 'pen logging a 5.19 ERA and 1.46 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
06-14-23 | Angels v. Rangers OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
A.L. West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Texas at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. We've seen plenty of offense in the first two games of this series and I expect more of the same on Wednesday as the Angels send Reid Detmers to the mound against Andrew Heaney of the Rangers. Detmers has been reasonably effective for the Halos so far this season, logging a 3.40 FIP, however he hasn't shown the ability to work deep into games thanks in large part to a lofty 1.51 WHIP. On three previous occasions he has come off a team victory in his most recent start and in those three outings he allowed 11 earned runs in 14 1/3 innings of work. Detmers faced the Rangers once previously this season, allowing three earned runs on seven hits over just four innings in a 10-1 home defeat. While much has been made of the overworked and undermanned nature of the Rangers bullpen, the Angels 'pen has perhaps labored even more lately, logging a collective 30.0 innings over the last seven games and no having been afforded a day off since June 5th. Andrew Heaney has posted fairly typical numbers so far this season but has struggled to settle in here at Globe Life Field, posting a 5.67 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in seven home outings. His 4.80 FIP and 1.25 WHIP certainly leave something to be desired and I suspect he'll have his hands full with a red hot Angels offense that has produced just shy of 6.0 runs per game over the last week. The Rangers bullpen allowed the Halos to pull away in the ninth inning last night. Their relief corps got off to a terrific start this season but have now seen their collective ERA rise to 4.57 and their FIP to 1.26. On the season, Texas has only converted 12 saves while blowing 10. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
06-13-23 | Panthers v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Florida and Vegas at 8:20 pm et on Tuesday. The last two games managed to stay 'under' the total which has been par for the course for this particular matchup in Sunrise. It's been a much different story in Las Vegas and I expect that to continue to be the case on Tuesday, noting that all seven previous meetings on the Strip have totalled at least six goals. In this series we saw Games 1 and 2 reach seven and nine total goals. It's desperation time for the Panthers now and here we'll note that the 'over' is 10-3 when they come off a one-goal loss this season with that spot producing an average total of 7.6 goals. The 'over' is also 22-11 with the Golden Knights playing at home following a one-goal victory over the last three seasons, as is the case here. Interestingly, Vegas hasn't been as stingy from a defensive standpoint at home this season, allowing 2.9 goals per game compared to its season average of 2.7 goals allowed per contest. Florida checks in giving up 3.5 goals per game on the road compared to its season average of 3.3. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
06-13-23 | Angels v. Rangers UNDER 9.5 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Texas at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a wild, high-scoring extra innings affair to open this series last night as the Angels rallied for a 9-6 victory. I expect a much different story to unfold on Tuesday. Jaime Barria will get the start for the visiting Angels. He's made 14 appearances but only three starts for the Halos this season and has pitched well, logging a 3.04 FIP and 0.97 WHIP in 39 innings of work. Barria should be happy to see the Rangers in the opposing dugout as he owns a career 3.27 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 10 previous starts against them. The Angels bullpen continues to impress. Last night, after digging an early 5-1 hole, Los Angeles' pitching staff hung tough and ultimately limited the Rangers to only one run over the final nine innings. The Halos relief corps entered last night's contest sporting a collective 0.68 ERA and 0.99 WHIP over the last seven games. It sounds like the Rangers are leaning toward giving Cody Bradford his third big league start on Tuesday (with Jon Gray sidelined due to a blister). The results have been mixed in Bradford's first two starts but he did shake off the nerves to hold the Orioles to only two earned runs over five innings last time out. He had made 10 starts previously at the Triple-A level, recording a 1.82 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. The Rangers bullpen has been good but not great this season but did enter Monday's action sporting a collective 1.16 WHIP in 99 innings pitched at home and has been 'underworked' in the big picture at least, logging a combined 197 innings this season (it did eclipse the 200-inning mark in last night's marathon). Take the under (8*). | |||||||
06-12-23 | Heat v. Nuggets UNDER 209.5 | Top | 89-94 | Win | 100 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Denver at 8:30 pm et on Monday. This series has taken a low-scoring tone for the most part with three of the first four games staying 'under' the total. As I've noted in my analysis of the last two contests, Miami hasn't been able to break through the offensive ceiling against Denver this season, making good on 39, 39, 39, 38, 34 and 35 field goals in six matchups. On the flip side, the Heat have held an incredible 20 straight opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. In this series, Miami has limited Denver to 40, 39, 41 and 39 made field goals. There are still plenty of bettors chasing the 'over' in this series and as a result the oddsmakers can only set this number so low. It's not low enough in my opinion, noting that the 'under' is 16-7 with the Heat coming off a game in which they scored 100 points or less this season and 14-6 with the Nuggets following five consecutive games in which they shot 47% or better from the field, which is also the situation here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
06-12-23 | Angels v. Rangers -150 | Top | 9-6 | Loss | -150 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
A.L. Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Texas over Los Angeles at 8:05 pm et on Monday. The Angels took two of three games from the Mariners over the weekend and certainly enter this series playing well. I think they're going to be outmatched on Monday, however, as they send Tyler Anderson to the hill against Dane Dunning of the Rangers. Anderson has seen his FIP rise to 5.14 and his WHIP to 1.60 after allowing 10 earned runs in nine innings in his last two starts. He's allowing a whopping 10.0 hits and 4.4 walks per nine innings this season and while he's done a good job of keeping the ball in the park (1.0 home runs allowed per nine innings) that's not enough to minimize the damage, especially when you're striking out only 5.9 batters per nine frames. The Angels bullpen has been terrific but is approaching 'overworked' territory in my opinion as their relief corps eclipses 240 innings on the season. Dane Dunning is coming off a couple of rough outings of his own, giving up an uncharacteristic three home runs in his most recent start. Still, he owns a solid 3.72 FIP and 1.10 WHIP in 14 starts including six starts this season. While the Rangers bullpen has been up and down, it has logged a collective 1.16 WHIP in 99 innings of work here at home. In stark contrast to the Angels 'pen, the Rangers relief corps has only been called into action for 192 1/3 innings on the campaign. Take Texas (10*). | |||||||
06-11-23 | Cubs v. Giants -135 | 3-13 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco over Chicago at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. The Cubs have taken a pair of low-scoring affairs to open this series but I look for the Giants to answer back on Sunday. Hayden Wesneski will get the start for Chicago. He's had an up-and-down start to the season but perhaps with more downs than ups, logging a 5.64 FIP and 1.22 WHIP. In his return to the starting rotation last time out he labored through 4 2/3 innings in an eventual 7-4 loss to the Angels in Anaheim. I'm generally high on the Cubs bullpen - at least a couple of their key relief arms anyway - but the numbers indicate otherwise as they've recorded a collective 4.85 ERA and 1.42 WHIP on the road this season (entering last night's action). John Brebbia will get another spot start for the Giants. He's been effective in 27 appearances, including six starts this season, posting a 2.60 FIP and 1.05 WHIP. Of course any time Brebbia starts, the Giants bullpen is key as he's unlikely to work deep into the contest. Note that San Francisco's relief corps has logged a 1.93 ERA and 0.86 WHIP over the last seven games (also entering last night's action). Take San Francisco (8*). | |||||||
06-10-23 | Golden Knights v. Panthers UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 112 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
Stanley Cup Final Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Vegas and Florida at 8:20 pm et on Saturday. We saw a reversal of sorts in this series in Game 3 as the Panthers won in overtime in a low-scoring affair. Keep in mind, Games 1 and 2 had totalled seven and nine goals. I expect another lower-scoring contest than most are anticipating on Saturday noting that the 'under' is a long-term 30-16 with the Golden Knights playing on the road seeking revenge for a one-goal loss against an opponent. While all seven all-time meetings between these two teams in Las Vegas have totalled at least six goals, four of the last five matchups here in Sunrise have reached five total goals or less. Here in the 2022-23 campaign, the Knights have held the opposition to just 2.6 goals per game on the road. The Panthers haven't been as stout defensively at home, but have still been better in that regard than on the road, limiting foes to 3.0 goals per contest (compared to their 3.3 goals allowed per game overall). Take the under (10*). | |||||||
06-10-23 | Ottawa v. Montreal UNDER 44.5 | 12-19 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Ottawa and Montreal at 7 pm et on Saturday. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair between the Tiger-Cats and Blue Bombers last night but I expect nothing of the sort as the RedBlacks and Alouettes kick off their CFL season on Saturday in Montreal. Ottawa will be forced to start Nick Arbuckle at quarterback as Jeremiah Masoli remains sidelined due to injury. Arbuckle was a big disappointment in his first year with the RedBlacks in 2022, throwing for a high completion percentage but finding the end zone only six times through the air to go along with 14 interceptions. I suspect Ottawa will take a rather cautious approach offensively here, likely feeling it can win even by hanging a low number on the scoreboard against an undermanned Alouettes offense. Montreal enters the season with newly-signed QB Cody Fajardo under center. He didn't show much chemistry with the Als unproven receiving corps (they lost Eugene Lewis to free agency and will start the campaign without Greg Ellingson and Tyson Philpot due to injuries). Montreal is likely to lean heavily on its ground attack led by veteran William Stanback, who is healthy entering the 2023 season. That should be music to the ears of the RedBlacks defense though, noting that they're dealing with some key injuries in the secondary. With Fajardo still learning the Als playbook, I'm not expecting them to let him cut it loose too often on Saturday. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
06-10-23 | A's v. Brewers OVER 9 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Oakland and Milwaukee at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. The A's saw their five-game 'over' streak come to an end in last night's series-opener in Milwaukee but Oakland did manage to stun the Brewers for its third straight victory. I'm anticipating a higher-scoring affair on Saturday as the A's hand the ball to Paul Blackburn against Julio Teheran of the Brewers. Blackburn has posted a 4.05 FIP and 1.67 WHIP through two starts, spanning nine innings of work. Of the 42 batters he has faced, 15 have reached base. More concerning is the fact that Blackburn had struggled mightily at the Triple-A level, logging a 7.50 ERA and 2.17 WHIP in six outings covering a span of 18 innings. Of the 90 batters he faced in the minors, 39 managed to reach base. Behind Blackburn is an A's bullpen that has posted a collective 6.40 ERA and 1.72 WHIP on the road this season, blowing five saves while converting only four (entering last night's action). Veteran Julio Teheran has made two big league starts this season and has pitched surprisingly well, recording a 3.97 FIP and 0.92 WHIP. That's in stark contrast to his performance at the Triple-A level where he had posted a 5.62 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in the Padres organization. The A's have been consistently applying pressure on opposing pitching staffs over the last week, plating 5, 4, 11, 9 and 5 runs over their last five contests. As bad as they've been overall this season, they are still averaging just north of 4.0 runs per game away from home. They may be catching the Brewers bullpen at the right time as Milwaukee relievers have combined to post a 5.56 ERA and 1.28 WHIP over the last seven contests (entering last night's action). Take the over (10*). | |||||||
06-09-23 | Cubs +105 v. Giants | 3-2 | Win | 105 | 14 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over San Francisco at 10:15 pm et on Friday. The Cubs haven't won a game since Marcus Stroman last took the ball last Sunday in San Diego. I look for the right-hander to help them snap their skid on Friday as they open a series in San Francisco. Stroman has been terrific so far this season, logging a 3.49 FIP and 1.00 WHIP, allowing only 81-of-309 batters he has faced to reach base. His two outings against the Giants last season were a mixed bag but he did toss six shutout innings in his lone start here in San Francisco. The Cubs bullpen has struggled as a whole but does boast a few redeemable arms that should be in line to pitch on Friday. On a positive note, Chicago's 'pen has only been called into action for 18 2/3 innings over the last seven games. In stark contrast, the Giants bullpen has been severely overworked, logging a collective 29 2/3 innings over the last seven games and 241 innings this season. Anthony DeSclafani will get the start for the Giants on Friday. While he does own solid overall numbers on the season, they've been on the rise lately as he has allowed 12 earned runs over his last three outings, covering a span of 15 innings. The Giants have only managed to win two of his last six starts. Take Chicago (8*). | |||||||
06-09-23 | Nuggets v. Heat UNDER 211.5 | 108-95 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Miami at 8:30 pm et on Friday. We'll stick with the program on Friday and back the 'under' as the Nuggets carry their 2-1 series lead into Game 4 of The Finals in Miami. The Heat have yet to show they can break through their offensive ceiling against Denver this season, knocking down 39, 39, 39, 38 and 34 field goals in five meetings. On the flip side, however, Miami has limited an incredible 19 straight opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. You would have to go back five games to find the last time the Nuggets made good on more than 41 field goals. Here, we'll note again that Denver has seen the 'under' go 21-9 after shooting 50% or better from the field in consecutive games this season, as is the case here. The 'under' is also 15-7 with the Heat coming off a game in which they scored 100 points or less this season. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
06-08-23 | Golden Knights v. Panthers -118 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 24 h 36 m | Show |
Stanley Cup Final Game of the Year. My selection is on Florida over Vegas at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. Last round, the Golden Knights won Games 1 and 2 on home ice before prevailing in Game 3 in Dallas as well. Here, I don't anticipate such a walk in the park for Vegas as it makes to the trip across the continent to face the Panthers in Sunrise on Thursday. Florida has shown plenty of fight through the first two games of this series but has nothing to show for it, dropping consecutive lopsided affairs. Note that the Golden Knights are a woeful 4-13 all-time when coming off consecutive home wins by two goals or more, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 1.0 goal along the way. Also note that the Panthers are 20-8 when coming off three straight games in which they gave up three goals or more this season, which is also the situation here. Vegas has obviously won the last two matchups between these two teams but hasn't notched three consecutive victories in this series since 2019-20 - the only time that has occurred in the all-time series. Take Florida (10*). | |||||||
06-08-23 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Reds | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 17 m | Show |
National League Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Cincinnati at 12:35 pm et on Thursday. Dodgers starter Clayton Kershaw will be pleased to see the Reds in the opposing dugout on Thursday as he has owned them for years, allowing just four earned runs over 34 innings in his last five starts against them with the Dodgers going a perfect 5-0 in those contests. The fact that Kershaw will be starting on just four days' rest might be somewhat concerning but Los Angeles has gone 3-1 with the veteran lefty starting on short rest this season, with all three of those victories coming by at least four runs. Kershaw has of course been the picture of consistency throughout his career and this season has been no different as he owns a 3.56 FIP and 1.10 WHIP. It's a much different story for his counterpart on Thursday, Graham Ashcraft of the Reds. The right-hander checks in sporting a 5.03 FIP and 1.60 WHIP in 62 1/3 innings of work. He's given up a staggering 27 earned runs over his last four outings. The Dodgers bullpen has been shockingly bad so far this season but I still consider their relief corps to be a positive regression candidate moving forward. The opposite could be said of the Reds, noting that Cincinnati's 'pen entered last night's action with a collective 3.91 ERA and 1.32 WHIP this season. Interestingly, four of the Reds eight blown saves this season have come in afternoon games. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (10*). | |||||||
06-07-23 | Nuggets v. Heat UNDER 214.5 | Top | 109-94 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Miami at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday. While the Heat did outlast the Nuggets 111-108 in Game 2 of this series, they still failed to break through the offensive ceiling, connecting on only 38 field goals in another relatively slow-paced affair. Note that Miami has now knocked down 39, 39, 39 and 38 field goals in four meetings with the Nuggets this season. On the flip side, the Heat have now held an incredible 18 straight opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. They've limited six straight and 10 of their last 11 foes to 84 or fewer field goal attempts. The Heat exploded for 17 made three-pointers in Game 2 but I'm not anticipating a repeat performance here, noting that the Nuggets have held opponents to an average of 12 made threes per contest on the road this season. The 'under' is 20-9 with Denver coming off consecutive games in which it shot 50% or better from the field, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' has gone a long-term 129-96 with the Heat playing at home on two or more days' rest, which is also the situation here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
06-07-23 | Mariners +104 v. Padres | 3-10 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle over San Diego at 4:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Mariners are a team I want to bet on in the coming weeks while the Padres look like a solid fade moving forward. Here, we can back Seattle at an underdog price (at the time of writing) with a significant edge in terms of the starting pitching matchup. George Kirby will take the ball for the Mariners. He has posted Cy Young Award-caliber numbers so far this season, logging a 3.27 FIP and 1.01 WHIP. He'll have the benefit of starting on six days' rest on Wednesday after shutting the Yankees down over eight shutout innings last week. Michael Wacha will counter for the Padres. He was brought back to Earth in his most recent start, lasting only 4 2/3 innings in a loss to the Cubs. With a 3.72 FIP and 1.15 WHIP I do feel that Wacha is in line for some regression, noting that he hasn't posted a full-season FIP lower than 4.14 since 2017. A number of current Mariners hitters have enjoyed considerable success against Wacha as well, including Teoscar Hernandez and Ty France who are a combined 14-for-22 against the right-hander. The Padres bullpen has outpaced that of the Mariners lately but are entering 'overworked' territory, having not had a day off since May 29th. Seattle's 'pen still owns solid numbers on the season with a 3.64 ERA and 1.33 WHIP, converting 15 saves while blowing only seven. Take Seattle (8*). | |||||||
06-06-23 | Diamondbacks v. Nationals OVER 9.5 | Top | 10-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. These two teams met for a three-game series in Arizona back in early May and two of those contests flew 'over' the total, reaching 15 and 17 runs. I'm anticipating a similarly high-scoring start to this series in Washington on Tuesday. Tommy Henry will take the ball for the visiting Diamondbacks. He had his best outing of the young season last time out as he tossed seven shutout innings against the Rockies. That was at home though. Henry has logged a 5.74 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in three road starts. For the season, Henry sports a 5.21 FIP and 1.24 WHIP, allowing 52-of-167 batters he has faced to reach base. That coming after he posted a 5.88 FIP and 1.45 WHIP in 47 big league innings last year. Jake Irvin will counter for Washington on Tuesday. He owns a 5.80 FIP and 1.63 WHIP on the season and has worked beyond the fifth inning only once in six starts so far. That doesn't bode well as the Nationals bullpen has recorded a collective 6.65 ERA and 1.75 WHIP over the last seven contests. On the season, Washington has converted only eight saves while also blowing eight here at home. Going back to Irvin, he has faced 124 batters with 47 of them managing to reach base. Arizona is capable of applying plenty of pressure on opposing pitchers when reaching base, having already racked up 55 stolen bases this season. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
06-05-23 | Panthers +124 v. Golden Knights | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Florida over Vegas at 8:10 pm et on Monday. After an emotional victory in Game 1 of this series on Saturday I look for the Golden Knights to suffer a bit of a letdown in Game 2, allowing the Panthers to rise up and even this series at one game apiece. While the Panthers haven't had a great deal of success against the Golden Knights in the all-time series between these two teams (they've never won in Las Vegas), they have managed to go 3-2 when coming off a loss by two goals or more in their previous matchup, as is the case here. Note also that Florida is 10-4 when playing on the road off a loss by two goals or more this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.9 goals in that situation. I didn't feel that Game 1 was as lopsided as the final score indicated, noting that the Panthers actually outshot the Knights by a 35-34 margin. Take Florida (8*). | |||||||
06-05-23 | Astros +110 v. Blue Jays | Top | 11-4 | Win | 110 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
American League Game of the Month. My selection is on Houston over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The Blue Jays are coming off an impressive three-game sweep of the Mets in Queens over the weekend but I look for their run of success to come to an end on Monday as they return home to host the Astros. Houston checks in off a 2-1 loss against the Angels yesterday, failing to complete the four-game sweep of its division rival. Here, I'm confident we'll see the Astros bounce back against Blue Jays starter Alek Manoah, who continues to grind through a miserable campaign. Manoah last pitched last Wednesday and showed no signs of turning things around, lasting only four innings in an eventual 4-2 defeat. Now Manoah will have to start on short rest (four days) having posted a lofty 6.27 FIP and 1.77 WHIP in 12 starts spanning 57 2/3 innings of work this season. While the Jays 'pen behind Manoah has been terrific lately, I'm not sure it will be enough on this night. Brandon Bielak will get the start for the visiting Astros. He got shelled in his first couple of big league starts this season but has since settled down, allowing only 13 hits and six earned runs in his last three starts, spanning 17 1/3 innings. While Bielak certainly hasn't been as good as his 3.19 ERA indicates (he's posted a 5.15 FIP and 1.45 WHIP), I do think he can be effective against the up-and-down Blue Jays. While the Astros bullpen has struggled lately, it still owns a collective 3.30 ERA and 1.26 WHIP this season with 16 saves converted and only five blown. Take Houston (10*). | |||||||
06-04-23 | Heat v. Nuggets -8.5 | 111-108 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver minus the points over Miami at 8 pm et on Sunday. I'm not sure that Game 2 of this series sets up all that much differently than Game 1, which was won by the Nuggets by a score of 104-93. As I noted in my analysis of that contest, this isn't a favorable matchup for the Heat, particularly from an offensive standpoint. Miami's offensive ceiling appears to be fairly low, noting that it has not knocked down an identical 39 field goals in all three meetings with the Nuggets this season. In Game 1, the Heat actually got off a whopping 96 field goal attempts. I expect to see Denver tighten things up considerably from a defensive standpoint here. On the flip side, the Nuggets made good on 45 and 44 field goals in the two regular season matchups between these two teams but connected on 'only' 40 in Game 1. That was on just 79 FG attempts, however. This line may seem steep until you realize that Denver has outscored opponents by an average margin of 10.1 points this season. Much like in Game 1, we'll again note that the Heat are 0-11 ATS after holding consecutive opponents to 105 points or less this season, as is the case here. Take Denver (8*). | |||||||
06-04-23 | Cubs -104 v. Padres | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over San Diego at 5:30 pm et on Sunday. We've made a bit of a habit of fading Padres starter Ryan Weathers and we'll do the same here as the Cubs look to bounce back from last night's shutout loss in San Diego. Marcus Stroman has impressed for Chicago this season, logging a 3.55 FIP and 0.99 WHIP in 12 starts spanning 73 innings of work. While the Cubs bullpen behind him has struggled lately, this is still a relief corps I do have some faith in and the majority of their key arms should be in line to work on Sunday. Weathers checks in with a 4.48 FIP and 1.37 WHIP. The Padres did win his most recent start but that was really no thanks to Weathers as he allowed three earned runs on seven hits over just four innings against the Marlins. While the Padres bullpen has posted solid numbers overall, it has had a tough time closing out games, already blowing 10 saves this season. Here at home, San Diego has converted four saves while blowing four as well. Take Chicago (8*). | |||||||
06-03-23 | Panthers v. Golden Knights -123 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
Game of the Week. My selection is on Vegas over Florida at 8 pm et on Saturday. You have to figure the Golden Knights couldn't have their guard any more raised as they host the upstart Panthers in Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final on Saturday. I say that after Florida stole Games 1 and 2 in a building that's generally tough on opposing teams in Raleigh last round (it did the same in round two in Toronto as well) on its way to a series sweep. The Golden Knights are also coming off a loss in their most recent home game last Saturday against the Stars (before they won Game 6 in blowout fashion in Dallas). Here, we'll note that the home team won both regular season meetings between these two squads, including a 2-1 Panthers victory in their most recent matchup back in March. Note that the Knights check in an incredible 34-11 when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.2 goals in that situation. While the Panthers have fared exceptionally well against Eastern Conference opponents this season, they're just 13-19 against the Western Conference, allowing an average of 3.8 goals per game while being outscored by an average margin of 0.6 goals along the way. Take Vegas (10*). | |||||||
06-03-23 | Yankees -122 v. Dodgers | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Los Angeles at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. The Dodgers took the opener of this series last night but I look for New York to answer back on Saturday. Gerrit Cole will take the ball for the visiting Yankees. He's been roughed up in his last two outings but still owns terrific overall numbers this season with a 3.69 FIP and 1.14 WHIP. I can't help but feel the Dodgers bats are in for some regression after scoring six runs or more in six straight games heading into this contest. Los Angeles will counter with Michael Grove. He'll be making his fifth start this season and the results have been a mixed bag. Grove owns an ugly 8.44 ERA but has been better than that lofty number, sporting a 4.65 FIP. That's not saying he's pitched well, however, noting that he checks in with a 1.75 WHIP. As I noted in my analysis of last night's game, the bullpens are virtually a wash in this matchup, however, the Yankees 'pen has been pitching far better recent, entering last night's contest with a collective 1.82 ERA and 1.01 WHIP over the last seven games while the Dodgers 'pen recorded an ERA north of five over the same stretch. Take New York (8*). | |||||||
06-02-23 | Yankees v. Dodgers -136 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles over New York at 10:10 pm et on Friday. The Dodgers dropped their most recent contest in Washington but I look for them to rebound in Friday's series-opener against the Yankees. New York will give the start to Luis Severino. He checks in sporting a sparkling 1.59 ERA in two starts, spanning 11 1/3 innings. He hasn't been quite as sharp as that number indicates, however, as he has recorded a 3.73 FIP. In two minor league rehab outings, Severino logged a 4.05 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 6 2/3 innings. Clayton Kershaw will counter for Los Angeles. He'll be looking to bounce back after a string of rough outings but still owns a 3.42 FIP and 1.14 WHIP in 11 outings spanning 62 1/3 innings this season. He'll be making his second straight on a full five days' rest. The Yankees bullpen appears to have the edge although it is worth noting that the Dodgers bullpen has been significantly stronger at home than on the road, logging a collective 3.14 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
06-02-23 | Mariners -113 v. Rangers | 0-2 | Loss | -113 | 13 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle over Texas at 8:05 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams enjoyed a day off yesterday but will be back at it for the start of this three-game divisional series on Friday. The Mariners will hand the ball to Luis Castillo. He checks in sporting a 2.93 FIP and 0.99 WHIP this season. Over his last two outings he's tossed 12 shutout innings, striking out 18 and walking only four along the way. Jon Gray will counter for Texas. He checks in sporting a 2.81 ERA but I don't think he's been quite as good as that ERA indicates, recording a 4.64 FIP in 10 starts, spanning 57 2/3 innings of work this season. There's no question Gray has been terrific over his last seven outings but I do think he's running out of real estate in his current five-start undefeated streak. Prior to that he owned a 1-11 team record over his last 12 outings. The two bullpens are virtually a wash, although it is worth noting that Texas has had a bit of a tough time closing out games this season, converting 10 saves but also blowing eight. Take Seattle (8*). | |||||||
06-01-23 | Heat v. Nuggets -8.5 | 93-104 | Win | 100 | 14 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver minus the points over Miami at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. I'll lay the points with the Nuggets in Game 1 of The Finals on Thursday. Miami of course checks in off an incredible seven-game series against the Celtics, going 5-2 ATS along the way. Note that the Heat were contained offensively for the most part in the latter stages of that series, knocking down 42 or fewer field goals in each of the final four games. I feel Miami's offensive ceiling in this particular matchup with the Nuggets is rather low, noting that it made good on an identical 39 field goals in each of two regular season meetings. In fact, the Heat have knocked down 40 or fewer field goals nine of the last 10 matchups in this series. Denver on the other hand has made good on 42 or more field goals in six straight meetings and 45 or more twice over that stretch. While this line may seem steep, it's worth noting that the Nuggets are outscoring opponents by 10.1 points on average. Also note that the Heat are 0-10 ATS this season when coming off consecutive games in which they held the opposition to 105 points or fewer, as is the case here. Take Denver (8*). | |||||||
06-01-23 | Reds v. Red Sox UNDER 9.5 | 2-8 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Boston at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. The Reds had their four-game 'over' streak snapped in last night's 5-4 victory here in Boston. I look for a lower-scoring affair than most are expecting in Thursday's series-finale. Reds starter Hunter Greene's most recent outing went 'over' the total but it had everything to do with the Cincinnati offense as it rolled to a 9-0 victory over the Cubs. Greene actually worked six hitless frames in that victory, striking out 11 along the way. That marked his second straight start in which he recorded double-digit strikeouts. Greene has lowered his FIP to 3.62 and his WHIP to a still-lofty 1.38. It's worth noting that he should be in line for some regression to the mean in terms of hits allowed, noting he has given up 8.8 hits per nine innings this season after allowing just 7.4 in 125 2/3 innings last year. Chris Sale will counter for Boston. He checks in sporting a 3.90 FIP and 1.16 WHIP in 10 starts spanning 55 1/3 innings of work this season. Sale brings excellent form into this start having allowed just 10 hits and four earned runs in his last three outings, covering a span of 20 innings. The two bullpens have exceeded expectations this season. While the Reds 'pen has suffered a bit of regression lately, logging an ERA north of five over the last seven games, it has also converted four saves without a single blown over that stretch. Between the two clubs, they've combined to convert 31 saves while blowing only 13. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
05-31-23 | Yankees v. Mariners -133 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
American League Game of the Week. My selection is on Seattle over New York at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Yankees have taken the first two games in this series in blowout fashion but I look for the Mariners to answer back on Wednesday. Clarke Schmidt has turned things around to a certain extent for the Yankees over the last couple of starts, allowing just three earned runs in 10 innings of work. He still owns a 4.25 FIP and 1.60 WHIP on the season. Of the 229 batters he has faced, 82 have reached base. The Mariners will counter with George Kirby. He got shelled in his most recent outing. It happens to the best of pitchers. That doesn't change the fact that he has pitched well this season, logging a 3.49 FIP and 1.10 WHIP, allowing just 71-of-254 batters to reach base. As a testament to how impressive he has been, Kirby has worked at least six innings in eight of his 10 starts this season. The bullpens are virtually a wash but I'm confident the Mariners can pick themselves back up at the plate and snap their two-game skid, noting they've lost more than two games in a row only once since April 30th. Take Seattle (10*). | |||||||
05-31-23 | Brewers v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Blue Jays picked up their second straight win in the opener of this interleague series last night. They'll likely need to get their bats out again on Wednesday as they hand the ball to a struggling Alek Manoah against Julio Teheran of the Brewers. Teheran has made just one big league start this season - his first since 2021. He held up well in that outing against the Giants but I think it's important to keep that brief start in perspective. At the Triple-A level, with the Padres organization, Teheran had recorded a 5.62 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in 40 innings of work. Of the 185 batters he faced, 70 reached base. Manoah has of course struggled this season, posting a 6.15 FIP and 1.79 WHIP in 11 starts. You would have to go back seven outings to find the last time he lasted six innings or more. While the Blue Jays bullpen behind him has held up well, they also haven't had a day off (as a team) since May 11th. The Brewers 'pen entered last night's action sporting an ugly 6.00 ERA and 1.44 WHIP over the last seven games. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
05-30-23 | Braves -1.5 v. A's | 1-2 | Loss | -145 | 15 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Monday. The Braves got stunned by the A's in the series-opener between these two teams yesterday, dropping a 7-2 decision. I look for them to bounce back on Monday, behind impressive starter Bryce Elder. Elder checks in sporting a 3.46 FIP and 1.17 WHIP in 10 starts, spanning 58 1/3 innings of work. Of the 237 batters he has faced, only 72 have reached base. He'll start on a full five days' rest after taking the ball on short rest in his last outing. While the Braves bullpen has struggled lately, it has held up well on the road this season, posting a collective 2.89 ERA and 1.10 WHIP on the road (entering yesterday's action). J.P. Sears will counter for Oakland. He has actually gone two starts without the A's dropping a decision by multiple runs but Oakland has lost each of his last six outings overall. Sears owns a 5.15 FIP and 1.10 WHIP on the season. He has displayed much better command than we've seen previously in his career, allowing just 1.7 walks per nine innings but will be tested by a Braves lineup that has drawn 178 walks this season (entering Monday's action). Sears hasn't worked beyond the sixth inning in any of his 10 starts this season, leaving the A's poor bullpen likely to make more than a cameo appearance here. Note that Oakland's relief corps has recorded a collective 6.50 ERA and 1.66 WHIP this season with only four saves converted and 10 blown (also entering yesterday's action). Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (8*). | |||||||
05-29-23 | Heat v. Celtics UNDER 203.5 | 103-84 | Win | 100 | 23 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Boston at 8:30 pm et on Monday. We won with the 'under' on Saturday and we'll come right back with the same play in Game 7 of this series on Monday. The pace has slowed considerably in this series over the last few games and there's little reason to expect anything different here. Note that Miami has now held 15 straight opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. Meanwhile, Boston has been limited to 43 or fewer made field goals in 12 straight contests. The 'under' is now a perfect 9-0 with the Celtics facing elimination over the last two seasons with that situation producing an average total of just 199.1 points. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
05-29-23 | Golden Knights +113 v. Stars | 6-0 | Win | 113 | 22 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Vegas over Dallas at 8:05 pm et on Monday. We won with the 'over' in Game 5 of this series on Saturday but we'll switch gears and back the Golden Knights as they try again to close out the Stars on Monday. Note that Vegas is 14-6 when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent this season and 19-7 when seeking revenge for a loss where their opponent scored four goals or more. The Knights have been a terrific road team all season, going 31-17 and I'm confident they can come through for a second time in Dallas in this series to wrap things up on Monday. Take Vegas (8*). | |||||||
05-28-23 | Blue Jays v. Twins +102 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
American League Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota over Toronto at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. The Blue Jays took the opener of this series by a 3-1 score on Friday but the Twins bounced back in a big way yesterday, delivering a 9-7 victory in a contest that probably wasn't quite as close as the final score indicated (the Blue Jays scored three runs in the ninth inning). Both teams have been scuffing their heels lately but I like the Twins chances of ending their current homestand on a positive note before heading off to Houston to open a three-game set on Monday. Jose Berrios will take the ball as he makes his fifth career start against his former team. Since joining the Blue Jays, Berrios has posted a 2-2 team record against Minnesota but has gone 0-2 here in the Twin Cities. While Berrios has enjoyed a solid bounce-back campaign so far, posting a 3.76 FIP and 1.22 WHIP, I don't particularly like the set-up here. He'll be starting on short rest (four days) for a third straight turn in the rotation after working seven innings against the Rays last time out (in a lopsided 20-1 victory). The last time we saw him do so he was ineffective over 5 1/3 innings last September against the Yankees, allowing five earned runs on nine hits. Note that he's shown a fairly sharp home-road dichotomy this season as well, logging a 5.60 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in his six road outings. Bailey Ober will counter for Minnesota. He continues to be one of the most underrated starters in baseball this season. Ober got the call to the bigs after starting the campaign at the Triple-A level, where he shone, posting a 2.55 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 17 2/3 innings of work. Since joining the Twins, Ober has been just as effective, recording a 3.54 FIP and 0.99 WHIP in 35 1/3 innings pitched. He did allow four earned runs over five innings against the Giants last time out but has yet to give up more than single earned run in consecutive starts this season. Behind Ober is a Twins bullpen that has been terrific lately, entering yesterday's contest sporting a collective 2.35 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over the last seven games. The Jays 'pen has been on par with that of the Twins overall this season but entered yesterday's action with a 3.97 ERA and 1.37 WHIP over the last seven contests. While the Twins had the day off on Thursday, Toronto hasn't enjoyed an off day since May 11th (they'll finally get one tomorrow). The loss on the scoreboard wasn't the only setback for Toronto yesterday as CF Kevin Kiermaier was forced to leave the game with back discomfort. He's been one of the team's most consistent hitters this season, batting .319 and is also one of their best defensive players. It remains to be seen whether he'll be able to play on Sunday. The Twins have their share of injuries as well but have successfully employed a 'next man up' philosophy and average 4.8 runs per game at Target Field this season (entering yesterday's action). Take Minnesota (10*). | |||||||
05-28-23 | Cardinals v. Guardians OVER 8.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and Cleveland at 1:40 pm et on Sunday. The 'under' has cashed in the first two games in this series but I expect a different story to unfold in Sunday's series-finale. Jordan Montgomery has been completely out of sorts for the Cardinals lately, allowing 13 earned runs in his last three starts, spanning 14 1/3 innings. He has issued at least three walks only twice in his last 26 starts but those two times have come in his last three outings. He's also inexplicably had the yips in terms of home runs allowed, tagged for six long balls over his last four starts. Hunter Gaddis will counter for Cleveland. He shut the White Sox down over six innings in his most recent start, allowing just two hits without allowing a single earned run. We've seen this story play out before this season though, noting that he didn't allow an earned run over six innings against Oakland back in April before getting lit up for eight earned runs in three innings in his next outing. In 19 1/3 innings pitched at the Triple-A level this season, Gaddis had posted a 5.12 ERA and 1.66 WHIP. He has been better with the Guardians, posting a 3.64 FIP and 1.21 WHIP but I do think regression will be in order over his next few outings (note that he owns a career 6.25 FIP and 1.49 WHIP). Both bullpens have been solid lately but the Guardians have blown 11 saves already this season while the Cardinals relief corps has been overworked, having not had a day off since May 11th. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
05-27-23 | Celtics v. Heat UNDER 210.5 | 104-103 | Win | 100 | 14 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Miami at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. We've seen a major shift in this series, not only with the Celtics winning the last two games, but from a pace perspective. Game 4 saw the Celtics get off 84 field goal attempts while Miami managed to hoist up only 78. In Game 5, Miami got off only 79 field goal attempts with Boston attempting 79. Of course, the Celtics have shot a blistering 51.2% and 50.6% over the last two contests to get back in the series. I do expect a response from the Heat defensively here after Boston shot the lights out from beyond the arc in Game 5. On the flip side, we'll note that the 'under' is now a perfect 8-0 with the Celtics facing elimination in the playoffs over the last two seasons, allowing only 93.1 points per game in the process. That situation has produced an average total of just 198.1 points. Boston has now been held to 43 or fewer made field goals in 11 straight games while Miami has held the opposition to 43 or fewer made field goals in an incredible 14 consecutive contests. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
05-27-23 | Stars v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Vegas at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. The Stars have now been held to three goals or less in six straight games - matching a season-high. We've seen three straight games in this series stay 'under' the total. That's worth noting as the Golden Knights haven't seen more than three games in a row stay 'under' since back in January. We'll also note that the 'over' is 11-3 with the Knights playing at home seeking revenge for an in-season loss against an opponent this season with that situation producing an average total of 6.9 goals. As we've noted previously in this series, Stars goaltender Jake Oettinger appears to be wearing down and that's not surprising as he'll be between the pipes for an 80th time this season on Saturday. Knights goaltender Adin Hill has performed admirably but he's also faced a ton of shots in this series, 36, 28, 34 and 42 through four games, and will be starting a season-high eighth straight game with only one stretch of more than one day off between contests over that stretch. I expect both offenses to produce here. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
05-27-23 | Cardinals v. Guardians OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and Cleveland at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. These two teams were involved in a relatively low-scoring affair to open this series last night and the Guardians posted their fourth straight 'under' result in a 4-3 victory. I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday. St. Louis will send Jack Flaherty to the hill for his 11th start of the season. He checks in sporting a 4.88 FIP and 1.59 WHIP, having allowed a whopping 85-of-223 batters he has faced to reach base. I don't need to tell you that spells trouble as he prepares to face a Guardians lineup that, while struggling to hit for the most part, does generally apply a ton of pressure on opposing pitchers with their speed and aggressiveness on the basepaths. Meanwhile, the Cards bullpen behind Flaherty is as overworked as it gets having not had a day off since May 11th, entering last night's action with a collective 4.98 ERA and 1.26 WHIP over the last seven games. Tanner Bibee will get the start for Cleveland. His overall numbers this season are solid but he has proven vulnerable at times. He's just two starts removed from allowing four earned runs over just 3 2/3 innings against the light-hitting Tigers for example. He was fortunate to give up only two earned runs over six innings against the Mets last time out as he was tagged for seven hits and issued four walks (while striking out only three). The Cards bats were relatively quiet last night but we know they're capable of breaking out, noting that they've scored eight runs or more four times since May 15th. The Guardians bullpen has posted terrific numbers overall but used a number of key arms last night and has blown 11 saves to date (and nearly blew another last night). Take the over (10*). | |||||||
05-26-23 | Cardinals v. Guardians OVER 8 | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Friday. I'm not convinced that this will be the pitcher's duel that many are expecting as the Cardinals send Matthew Liberatore to the hill against Guardians ace Shane Bieber. Liberatore will be making his third appearance and second start for the Cardinals this season. He pitched well in his lone previous start, out-duelling Brewers ace Corbin Burnes in a 3-0 victory back on May 17th. The left-hander has yet to find much consistency at the big league level, however, noting that he logged a 5.02 FIP and 1.73 WHIP in 34 2/3 innings with St. Louis last season. He has allowed 9-of-27 batters he has faced to reach base in limited work this year and I do expect the Guardians to apply plenty of pressure with their aggressive base-running on Friday. Perhaps the bigger concern should be the Cardinals bullpen as they haven't had a day off since May 11th and check in sporting a collective 4.98 ERA and 1.26 WHIP over the last seven games. For the season, the Cards 'pen has converted only 11 saves while blowing 10. Shane Bieber has been somewhat un-Bieber-like this season, posting a 3.98 FIP and 1.21 WHIP. His walks per nine innings are up and his strikeouts are down (considerably). Here, he'll be starting on short rest (four days) for a third consecutive turn in the rotation. Compounding matters is the fact that he worked eight innings, throwing 106 pitches in his most recent start. The Guardians bullpen has been good but has had a tendency to cough up late leads, blowing two saves in the last seven games alone and 11 on the season so far. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
05-26-23 | White Sox -136 v. Tigers | Top | 12-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
A.L. Central Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago over Detroit at 6:40 pm et on Friday. The Tigers took the opener of this series by a 7-2 score last night - their second straight victory. Note that they've strung together more than two wins in a row only twice previously this season while the White Sox haven't dropped back-to-back games since a three-game skid from May 10th to 12th, quietly turning things around following an awful start. Lance Lynn will take the ball for the visiting White Sox on Friday. I have him pegged as a positive regression candidate as much like his team, we've seen him start to turn the corner over his last couple of outings. Lynn still owns a disappointing 4.71 FIP and 1.47 WHIP on the season but those numbers do indicate he's pitched better than his lofty 6.28 ERA. Note that the hits have been falling in at an uncommon rate, even by Lynn's standards, as he has given up 10.2 hits per nine innings this season, compared to his career average of 8.3. Lynn has also given up 1.9 home runs per nine innings compared to his career mark of 0.9 but most of the damage was done when he was struggling early in the campaign. He has given up just one home run over his last two starts, spanning 13 innings of work. Lynn should be pleased to see the Tigers as his teams have gone a perfect 6-0 in his last six starts against them. Joey Wentz will counter for Detroit. He made seven starts at the big league level last year and pitched reasonably well. It's been a different story here in 2023, however, as the book may be out on the left-hander. He checks in sporting a 5.79 FIP and 1.63 WHIP through 38 2/3 innings of work. Wentz hasn't made it out of the third inning in either of his last two outings. While he will have the advantage of facing the White Sox for the first time, the same could have been said in his last start against the Washington Nationals and he was lit up for six earned runs on 10 hits over just two innings. Based on recent form, we can consider the bullpens a virtual wash in this matchup. I do like the fact that White Sox relievers have only been called upon to work 23 1/3 innings over the last seven games, posting a collective 2.31 ERA and 0.94 WHIP while converting three saves without blowing a single one over that stretch. Despite last night's defeat, the White Sox have had plenty of success here in the Motor City over the last 2+ seasons, going 12-7, outscoring the Tigers by an average margin of 6-4. Take Chicago (10*). | |||||||
05-25-23 | Heat +8.5 v. Celtics | Top | 97-110 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Boston at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. As much as I'd like to see this series get extended (more basketball is always a good thing), I think there's a good chance we see the Heat close the Celtics out on Thursday. Incredibly, the ATS winner has won straight-up in 31 straight meetings in this series so a sprinkle on the Heat moneyline could be well worth your while. Regardless, we'll grab the generous helping of points with the underdog Heat here as the series shifts back to Boston for Game 5. Miami is on an incredible run right now having not lost consecutive games since a three-game skid from March 25th to 29th. The Heat have really locked in defensively, holding each of their last 13 opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, the Celtics have made good on 43 or fewer field goals in 10 straight contests. I don't believe Boston's offensive ceiling is all that high in this particular matchup, noting that it has topped out at 46 made field goals against Miami this season and that came in a game where the Heat were without Jimmy Butler. Even in Game 4 two nights ago, when the Celtics brought their 'A' game, performing about as well as you could expect at both ends of the floor, they still won by 'only' 17 points, noting that the margin was 15 points before a meaningless bucket on the C's final possession. For its part, Miami couldn't have played much worse, connecting on just 34-of-78 field goal attempts. Here, we'll note that the Heat are 40-25 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons, actually managing to outscore the opposition by an average margin of 0.4 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Celtics are a long-term 91-123 ATS when coming off a double-digit road victory. Take Miami (10*). | |||||||
05-25-23 | Golden Knights v. Stars OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Vegas and Dallas at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. We've seen consecutive low-scoring games in this series as the Golden Knights have taken a 3-0 stranglehold, pushing the Stars to the brink of elimination on Thursday. Vegas took Game 3 by a score of 4-0 and that's notable as only twice previously this season have the Knights played on the road following a shutout with those two contests totalling seven and eight goals (both victories). While the Stars were held off the scoresheet in Game 3, it wasn't for lack of trying. They carried the play over the game's final 50 minutes, peppering Knights goaltender Adin Hill at times. There were a number of posts and near-misses - I'm confident they convert some of those opportunities on Thursday. Dallas will be without Jamie Benn (suspension) and Evgeni Dadonov (injury) but neither are consistent point producers (11 and 10 points in the playoffs respectively). Here, we'll note that the 'over' is a perfect 7-0 with Dallas playing at home seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent this season, with that situation producing a staggering average total of 8.7 goals. The 'over' is also 16-8 with Dallas at home having lost at least two consecutive meetings with an opponent over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of 6.6 goals in that spot. There's been no letdown from the Knights offensively in similar situations this season as they average 4.0 goals per game when playing on the road after posting a road win in which they scored four or more goals. As I've noted previously, Stars goaltender Jake Oettinger has been extremely overworked, approaching 80 appearances this season (this will mark his 79th). His save percentage has dipped to .895 in the playoffs and .876 over his last four games. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
05-25-23 | Mets v. Cubs OVER 7.5 | Top | 10-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
National League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Chicago at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. The wind was blowing in at Wrigley Field last night and as a result we saw an exceptionally low total, not to mention another 'under' result, the second straight to open this series. I expect a different story to unfold in Thursday's series-finale, however. New York will give the start to Carlos Carrasco. To say he has struggled this season would be an understatement. Carrasco checks in sporting a 6.97 FIP and 1.55 WHIP through only four starts spanning 18 2/3 innings due to a stint on the I.L. He did pitch reasonably well in two rehab appearances at the minor league level but that was at Double-A Binghamton. Here in the bigs he has allowed 32-of-86 batters he has faced to reach base including four home runs. Carrasco did pitch six shutout innings in his lone start against the Cubs last year but I think we can agree that he was a much different pitcher a year ago than he is now. Kyle Hendricks will get his first start of the season for the Cubs. He's had extended work at the minor league (Triple-A) level and hasn't looked particularly good, posting a 5.75 ERA and 1.33 WHIP, allowing 28-of-85 batters he has faced to reach base including a pair of home runs in 20 1/3 innings. Keep in mind, Hendricks has struggled at the big league level over the last two seasons, recording a 4.89 FIP and 1.35 WHIP in 2021 and a 4.82 FIP and 1.29 WHIP in 2022. The Mets entered last night's action averaging north of 5.0 runs per game against right-handed starting pitching this season. I don't expect either of tonight's starters to work deep into this game and that should open the door for some late runs, noting that the two bullpens have really struggled lately. New York's relief corps checks in sporting a collective 5.55 ERA and 1.52 WHIP over the last seven games (entering last night's action) while the Cubs 'pen has posted a 6.45 ERA and 1.79 WHIP over the same stretch (also prior to last night's contest). Take the over (10*). | |||||||
05-24-23 | A's v. Mariners -1.5 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle -1.5 runs over Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Mariners got a bit of a scare, if you can call it that, from the A's last night as they trailed 2-0 before rallying in the bottom of the fifth inning and ultimately holding on for a 3-2 victory. Sitting in fourth place in the highly-competitive American League West and staring down a tough upcoming schedule that will feature consecutive series' against the Pirates, Yankees and Rangers, it's important that Seattle makes the most of this four-game home series against the lowly A's and so far, so good with two wins in as many tries. Ken Waldichuk will inexplicably get another turn in the A's starting rotation on Wednesday. The left-hander has been every bit as bad as his 6.85 ERA indicates, logging a 7.28 FIP and 1.85 WHIP through nine starts spanning 46 innings of work. Of the 220 batters he has faced, 88 have reached base including a whopping 13 home runs. Things don't figure to get any better here as the Mariners get their second look at him this season and he starts on short rest (four days) for just the third time this season (11 earned runs allowed on 13 hits in 9 1/3 innings in his previous two starts on short rest). Behind Waldichuk is an A's bullpen that continues to struggle, entering last night's action sporting a collective 6.62 ERA and 1.72 WHIP with only four saves converted and nine blown this season. Impressive rookie Bryce Miller will get the start for Seattle. While he will also be starting on just four days' rest, I'm not overly concerned as he did so back on May 7th as well (against a much tougher opponent in the Houston Astros) and allowed only two hits over six shutout innings. Miller's numbers are terrific. He has logged a 1.78 FIP and 0.51 WHIP through his first four big league starts, facing 88 batters and allowing only 13 of them to reach base. What I really like about Miller is that he's shown the ability to work deep into ball games, lasting at least six innings in all four starts to date. The Mariners bullpen behind him, while showing some regression lately, has recorded a collective 3.13 ERA and 1.27 WHIP with 12 saves converted and only six blown this season (entering last night's action). Take Seattle -1.5 runs (8*). | |||||||
05-24-23 | Marlins v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | 10-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday. We're starting to see this total creep down following consecutive 'under' results to open this series. I believe it's the wrong move. Sandy Alcantara will get the start for the visiting Marlins. This 2023 campaign hasn't gone particularly well for the Marlins ace as he checks in sporting a 5.05 ERA in 57 innings of work. He hasn't been as bad as that ERA indicates, logging a 3.59 FIP and 1.23 WHIP but there is still reason for concern as he has allowed a whopping 30 earned runs over his last seven starts and now pitches on short rest (four days) for just the third time this season. The Marlins bullpen has been overworked, having been called into action for just shy of 190 innings already this season. Note that Miami relievers entered last night's contest sporting a collective 4.38 ERA and 1.37 WHIP on the road this season. Karl Kauffmann will get his second big league start for the Rockies on Wednesday. I'm confident the Marlins bats can inflict plenty of damage against the right-hander. Note that he'll be starting on just four days' rest after allowing 9-of-21 batters he faced to reach base in his debut against the Rangers last week. Kauffmann inexplicably got the call to the bigs after getting rocked to the tune of a 7.78 ERA and 1.78 WHIP in 37 innings of work at the Triple-A level earlier this season. He allowed a ridiculous 69-of-174 batters to reach base with Albuquerque. The Rockies bullpen has held up alright so far in this series but is still a subpar relief corps having entered last night's action sporting a collective 4.61 ERA and 1.55 WHIP at home this season. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
05-24-23 | Padres v. Nationals +146 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 146 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
National League Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington over San Diego at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Padres took the opener of this series last night and have now strung together consecutive wins for the first time since May 3rd and 5th. I look for their success to be short-lived, however. Ryan Weathers will get another turn in the starting rotation for San Diego. I don't believe he's been as good as his 3.42 ERA indicates, recording a 4.46 FIP and 1.14 WHIP in 23 2/3 innings of work this season. The hits haven't been falling in against him but we're bound to see some regression in that department, noting that he has allowed just 6.8 hits per nine innings this season but gives up 9.2 for his career. Of the 92 batters Weathers has faced, 28 have reached base, this coming after he allowed 10-of-30 batters he faced to reach base at the Triple-A level earlier this season. The Nationals saw Weathers in the 2021 season, chasing him after 5 1/3 innings but not before plating four earned runs including two home runs on seven hits (while striking out only twice). Trevor Williams will counter for Washington. He's given the Nationals about what they expected, logging a 4.70 FIP and 1.26 WHIP through nine starts spanning 44 1/3 innings of work. He has certainly looked comfortable pitching here at Nationals Park, posting a 2.55 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in four home starts this season. Unlike his counterpart Weathers, Williams doesn't hand out many free passes, issuing just 2.0 walks per nine innings this season. While the Padres bullpen has pitched well lately, I'm willing to consider that department a virtual wash in this matchup at least when you consider the home/road splits of both relief corps'. The Nationals 'pen entered last night's action sporting a collective 3.86 ERA and 1.29 WHIP at home this season while Padres relievers had recorded a 3.96 ERA and 1.31 WHIP on the road. As I've said from the start of the season, I do think the Nats' are well-built for the ballpark they play their home games in, even if they are just 10-16 here this season. I like their chances of answering back against the Padres on Tuesday. Take Washington (10*). | |||||||
05-23-23 | Celtics v. Heat UNDER 216.5 | Top | 116-99 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Miami at 8:30 pm et on Tuesday. Game 3 ultimately sailed 'over' the total thanks in large part to the lopsided nature of that contest. The game was actually well on track to stay 'under' the total until the floodgates opened in the final eight minutes or so of the fourth quarter. While most expect the Celtics to roll over on Tuesday, I do think we'll see them show some fight and that ultimately projects to a much tighter affair than we saw on Sunday. While the Heat did allow 98 field goal attempts in Sunday's victory, the Celtics could only connect on 39 of them. On the flip side, Miami shot the lights out, making good on 46-of-81 field goal attempts. I would anticipate seeing a similar tempo from the Heat here, noting that they've gotten off 88 or fewer field goal attempts in 12 of their last 15 contests. While the Celtics haven't lived up to expectations defensively this season, and allowed 46 made field goals in Game 3 of this series on Sunday, it is worth noting that they haven't allowed 46 or more successful FG attempts in consecutive games since November 30th and December 2nd and that was the only occasion in which they did all season. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 103-64 with the Heat coming off a game in which they shot 55% or better from the field, as is the case here. The 'under' is also 205-159 with Miami checking in off a win by 15 points or more. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
05-23-23 | Golden Knights +130 v. Stars | 4-0 | Win | 130 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Vegas over Dallas at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Dallas Stars played a perfect road game on Sunday in Las Vegas - for just shy of 58 minutes anyway. It wasn't enough as the Golden Knights tied the game at the 17:38 mark of the third period before winning it just over a minute into overtime. Now the Stars are feeling all of the pressure as they return home for Game 3 on Tuesday. While all signs point to Dallas evening up the series, I believe the value is with the underdog Knights in this spot. Vegas goaltender Adin Hill has stepped in and performed admirably, stopping 186-of-200 shots (.930 save percentage) in these playoffs. While Hill is fresh, having only appeared in 36 games this season, Stars netminder Jake Oettinger looks like he might be running out of gas, and for good reason. Tuesday will mark his 78th appearance in goal for the Stars this season. In the playoffs, Oettinger has seen his save percentage drop to .901. Over his last four games he has posted an .882 save percentage. I absolutely love the Knights depth and simply feel that they're not going to roll over for the Stars with the scene shifting to Dallas on Tuesday. Here, we'll note that Dallas is just 5-9 when playing at home seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent this season, outscored by 0.4 goals on average in that situation. Meanwhile, Vegas is 22-10 when playing on the road coming off a victory this season, averaging 3.6 goals per game and outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 0.9 goals in that spot. Take Vegas (8*). | |||||||
05-23-23 | White Sox v. Guardians OVER 8 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
A.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Cleveland at 6:10 pm et on Tuesday. This is a rematch of the same starting pitching matchup we saw last Thursday - a game the Guardians won by a score of 3-1. Both starters worked their way into and out of trouble on a number of occasions early in that contest and it ultimately turned out to be a low-scoring affair. I expect a different story to unfold here as both Dylan Cease and Logan Allen start on short rest (four days). In the case of Cease, he'll be starting on four days' rest for a fourth consecutive turn in the rotation. He hasn't come close to reaching the heights he saw in the 2022 campaign (he finished second in A.L. Cy Young Award voting), logging a 4.20 FIP and 1.39 WHIP. Of the 237 batters he has faced, 79 have reached base. Since striking out 18 in his first two outings this season, Cease has topped out at just six K's over his last eight trips to the hill. Allen will be making his first career big league start on short rest. He struck out eight in each of his first two starts this season but has K'd only 13 in his last three outings combined, covering a span of 15 2/3 innings. Not helping matters is the fact that White Sox hitters just saw him (and had some success with seven hits and a walk in 5 2/3 innings) less than a week ago - the first time he'll face an opponent for a second time in his big league career. Last week, I noted that the two bullpens have been a mixed-bag this season, combining to blow 17 saves at the time. Well, they've gone on to blow two more saves since then, so that's 19 blown saves on the campaign between the two 'pens. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
05-22-23 | Nuggets v. Lakers -3 | Top | 113-111 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Denver at 8:30 pm et on Monday. After watching the Celtics roll over in embarrassing fashion last night, few are probably expecting much from the Lakers as they face elimination at the hands of the Nuggets on Monday. I actually think we will see some fight from Los Angeles here, noting that it has been competitive for the most part in this series and is in line for a strong bounce-back performance offensively following consecutive subpar showings. The Lakers have made good on just 36 and 38 field goals in their last two games and that's notable as they've been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in consecutive games just four times previously this season, averaging 41 made field goals in their next contest. While the Lakers have now lost three games in a row they haven't suffered a four-game losing streak since back in December. They've also been terrific in these playoffs following an ATS defeat, reeling off five straight ATS wins in that situation entering Monday's contest. Meanwhile, the Nuggets have now won five games in a row - their longest win streak since reeling off nine straight victories back in January. Denver is just 5-13 ATS when playing on the road following consecutive wins this season, outscored by an average margin of 5.6 points in that situation. The Nuggets are also 9-18 ATS when coming off three or more consecutive victories this season. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
05-22-23 | Marlins v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Monday. The Rockies return home licking their wounds after getting swept at the hands of the Rangers in Texas, outscored by a 31-10 margin in that three-game series. They'll be in tough again on Monday as they hand the ball to Chase Anderson, who is with his third organization already this season, for his second start of the campaign. Since lasting four years with the Brewers from 2016 to 2019, Anderson has now bounced around five different clubs since 2020. I don't need to tell you there's a reason for that. Incredibly, only 5-of-35 batters Anderson has faced at the big league level this season have managed to reach base. I can't help but feel that regression is coming, however, noting that Anderson had allowed 37-of-100 minor league batters to reach base, including four home runs, in 23 innings of work at the Triple-A level earlier in the campaign. Behind Anderson is an awful Rockies bullpen that has been severely overworked, logging 189 innings this season including 30 1/3 frames over the last seven games alone. Over their last seven contests they've posted a collective 5.64 ERA and 1.75 WHIP. Edward Cabrera will counter for Miami. He was dealing with a blister on his finger in his most recent outing but appears on track to make this start on Monday. Note that he'll be starting on short rest (four days) for just the fourth time this season, having allowed eight earned runs in 13 1/3 innings in his previous three outings on four days' rest. Like the Rockies, the Marlins 'pen has also been overworked this season, called into action for a collective 183 innings, recording a 4.18 ERA and 1.31 WHIP along the way. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
05-21-23 | Celtics -3 v. Heat | Top | 102-128 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 15 m | Show |
Conference Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Boston minus the points over Miami at 8:30 pm et on Sunday. The Celtics have dug themselves an 0-2 hole in this series but I don't think they're about to hit the panic button just yet. After all, there's no real intimidation factor in play as they head to Miami, where they've gone 5-2 in seven meetings since the start of last season including three double-digit victories. The fact that Boston has dropped consecutive games both SU and ATS is notable as it hasn't lost three straight contests since March 3rd to 6th. To find the last time the Celtics dropped the cash in more than two straight games you would have to go back to February 27th to March 5th when they lost four in a row ATS. The Heat have now won four straight meetings in this series. That's their longest winning streak in this matchup since way back in 2004. Here, we'll note that Boston is 12-2 ATS when coming off consecutive outright defeats as a favorite over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an impressive average margin of 11.2 points in that situation. The C's are also a long-term 145-109 ATS when playing on the road seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent. Meanwhile, the Heat are 13-27 ATS off an ATS victory this season and 9-18 ATS when coming off consecutive SU wins. Take Boston (10*). |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ricky Tran | $756 |
ProSportsPicks | $632 |
Joseph D'Amico | $510 |
Joey Tron | $450 |
Tom Macrina | $399 |
Nick Parsons | $344 |
Sean Murphy | $306 |
Jack Jones | $303 |
William Burns | $233 |
Dan Kaiser | $220 |