Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
07-17-21 | Mariners v. Angels -121 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
MLB Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles over Seattle at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. The Mariners got the better of the Angels in the opener of this series last night (we won with the 'over') but I expect Los Angeles to answer back on Saturday. All-Star Yusei Kikuchi will get the nod for the Mariners. His overall numbers are terrific this season although it is worth noting that he has posted a less than impressive 4.53 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 10 nighttime starts with the Mariners losing six of those games. If there's one team that's had his number over the course of his career it's the Angels. In six career outings against them, including one this season, he's posted a 1-5 team record to go along with a 10.22 ERA and 2.31 WHIP. Of course, the Angels have been a significantly better offensive team both at home and against left-handed pitching this season. Behind Kikuchi is a Mariners bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a 5.12 ERA and 1.45 WHIP on the road this season with 12 saves converted and 10 blown. Alex Cobb will counter for Los Angeles. He has recorded a stellar 2.48 ERA and 0.94 WHIP here at home this season with the Angels winning five of his six starts. While the Angels bullpen has been shaky, the good news is that Cobb averages a shade over six innings per start here at home. He'll be facing a Mariners team that still owns a losing record on the road this season, averaging just 4.3 runs per game. In two starts against Seattle here in 2021, Cobb has allowed just seven hits and five earned runs in 12 1/3 innings, winning the lone outing here at home which actually came against Kikuchi as well back on June 5th. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
07-17-21 | Qatar -2.5 v. Grenada | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Qatar -2.5 goals over Grenada at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. Off a wild 3-3 draw that saw all six goals scored in the second half against Panama, Qatar should find the going much easier against an overmatched Grenada squad on Saturday. Grenada fell by a 4-0 score against Honduras in its Gold Cup opener. It's unlikely the 160th-ranked international squad will find its footing against a cohesive Qatarian side here. Keep in mind, the bulk of the Qatar lineup plays together at the club level in its home country so it's no surprise that we saw it flow freely against Panama last time out. Defensively Qatar was extremely sound leading up to this tournament but clearly sprung some leaks against the Panamanians. This is an ideal bounce-back spot, however, as it faces an inexperienced Grenada squad that has had a miserable time trying to find the back of the goal against inferior opposition to what it will face here. While we're being asked to pay a steep tariff to back Qatar in this one I believe the lofty spread is warranted. Take Qatar -2.5 goals (9*). | |||||||
07-17-21 | Astros v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-10 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
MLB on FOX F5 Innings Total of the Year. My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Houston and Chicago at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. | |||||||
07-17-21 | Giants v. Cardinals UNDER 8 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between San Francisco and St. Louis at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. The Giants busted out for seven runs in last night's rout of the Cardinals. I'm expecting a lower-scoring affair on Saturday - at least in the early stages of this one. Anthony DeSclafani will take the ball for San Francisco. He labored through a couple of starts against the Cardinals last season but he's obviously been a different pitcher here in 2021. DeSclafani checks in sporting a 2.14 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 11 road starts this season, with the 'under' cashing at an 8-3-1 clip. Better still, he has posted a 1.93 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in 14 nighttime outings. By playing the first five innings only we'll look to avoid a Giants bullpen that has blown 11 saves on the road this season. The Cards will give left-hander Kwang-Hyun Kim the nod. He owns a 3.27 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in seven home starts this season. Kim really rounded into form prior to the All-Star break, recording a sparkling 0.50 ERA and 0.94 WHIP over his last three outings. I do think the extra couple of days off should serve as a positive, however, as he had made five consecutive starts on just four days' rest. Note that he'll be facing a Giants club that has been slightly weaker offensively on the road and considerably so against southpaw pitchers this season. They certainly didn't fare well against Kim earlier this month as they were shut out over seven innings. With Kim averaging just 4 2/3 innings per start at home, we'll likely see plenty from the Cardinals bullpen here, which we'll look to avoid by playing the first five innings only as St. Louis' relief corps has posted a 4.06 ERA and 1.36 WHIP at home this season. Take the first five innings under (8*). | |||||||
07-16-21 | Mariners v. Angels OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
A.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Friday. While playing 'overs' can be tricky coming out of the All-Star break with rested starting pitchers and bullpens, I see this as an ideal spot to call for a relatively high-scoring affair. Chris Flexen will take ball for the Mariners. While he's posted impressive numbers overall this season, that's been due in large part to the fact that he's made 10 of his 16 starts at home. Things haven't gone nearly as smooth on the road, where he owns a 6.97 ERA and 1.74 WHIP in 31 innings of work. Here, the Angels will be getting their second look at Flexen in less than a week after he shut them down in Seattle on July 10th. In their lone previous game against Flexen, the Angels had more success, scoring three earned runs and chasing him from the game after just four innings in late April. With Flexen averaging just over five innings per start on the road this season we'll likely see plenty of the Mariners bullpen in this one. Like Flexen, the Mariners relief corps has also been much better at home than on the road, where it has recorded a collective 5.12 ERA and 1.45 WHIP with 12 converted saves and 10 blown this season. Los Angeles will counter with left-hander Andrew Heaney. He checks in with a 5.40 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in eight home starts this season with the 'over' cashing at a 6-1-1 clip. The Mariners didn't do much against him in three tries last season but seemed to figure him out in his lone outing against them this year, scoring four earned runs including three home runs in only 3 1/3 innings. Note that Seattle has been a slightly better offensive club against left-handers and on the road this season. Like Flexen, Heaney doesn't tend to work deep into games, averaging just over five innings per start. While the Angels bullpen was better in the weeks leading up to the All-Star break, it still owns a less than impressive 4.67 ERA and 1.41 WHIP with 11 converted saves and eight blown here at home this season. Worse still, that ERA rises to 5.21 to go along with a 1.45 WHIP against division opponents. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
07-16-21 | Costa Rica v. Suriname UNDER 3 | 2-1 | Push | 0 | 14 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Suriname and Costa Rica at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. Suriname had its chances to score against Jamaica in its Gold Cup opener but ultimately came up empty in a 2-0 defeat. Here, I believe those chances will be few and far between against an experienced Costa Rica side that is coming off a 3-1 victory over Guadeloupe. Costa Rica let its guard down during injury time before the end of the first half, giving up its lone goal of the match. In general it did do a nice job of neutralizing Guadeloupe's strength, which certainly lies up front with capable attackers in Mirval, Phaeton and Ramothe. Here, Costa Rica will face a tougher defensive side than it saw in its tournament opener. It should also find it a little more difficult to dominate the possession as it did last time out. Suriname actually held a 53% to 47% possession edge against Jamaica. I don't expect it to find the same level of success in that regard here, but it will get its share of the ball against the Costa Ricans - I'm just not sure it will lead to anything fruitful on the attack. The situation lends itself to the 'under' in my opinion. Credit Costa Rica for finding the back of the net three times on Monday. However, given the fact that Guadeloupe received a red card relatively early in the second half, the damage probably should have been worse had Costa Rica been in top form. Look for it to continue to search for that form on Thursday as it likely controls this match most of the way, but fails to do enough to eclipse this generous total. Take the under (9*). | |||||||
07-16-21 | Astros v. White Sox UNDER 9 | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Friday. I'm expecting a well-pitched game in Chicago on Friday night as the Astros send Lance McCullers Jr. to the hill against Dylan Cease. McCullers checks in sporting a 2.94 ERA 1.43 WHIP in six road starts this season. The White Sox have never really been able to figure him out, seeing him five times previously and managing to score just eight earned runs in 30 1/3 innings. Note that Chicago has been slightly weaker offensively both at home and against right-handed pitching this season. Behind McCullers is a solid Astros bullpen that has recorded a collective 3.99 ERA and 1.40 WHIP on the road this season. Here, they'll have all hands on deck coming out of the break and it's worth noting they've posted a stellar 2.84 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over their last seven games with three saves converted and only one blown. Dylan Cease got hit hard by the Astros earlier this season but that was in Houston. He's been a completely different pitcher at home compared to on the road this season, posting a 1.81 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in eight starts. While he will be pitching on just four days' rest here, that hasn't been a problem this season - at least at home, where he has done so on three previous occasions, allowing just one earned run over 18 2/3 innings of work. With Cease averaging right around 5 2/3 innings per start at home we're likely going to need a significant contribution from the White Sox bullpen. That's fine as they've posted a collective 4.03 ERA and 1.21 WHIP with 14 saves converted and eight blown here at home this season and like the Astros have been better lately, recording a 2.01 ERA and 0.99 WHIP over their last seven contests. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
07-16-21 | Padres -131 v. Nationals | 24-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego first five innings over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Friday. | |||||||
07-16-21 | Jamaica -1.5 v. Guadeloupe | 2-1 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Jamaica -1.5 goals over Guadeloupe at 6:30 pm et on Friday. We won plays supporting both of these squads in their respective tournament openers but here, I'll give the nod to Jamaica as it should outclass Guadeloupe by a considerable margin over the course of 90 minutes. Jamaica jumped ahead early and while there were a few testy moments, ultimately prevailed by a 2-0 score against Suriname in its Gold Cup opener. The fact that it was challenged at all should serve as a bit of a wake-up call as it prepares to face another seemingly inferior squad talent-wise on Friday. Keep in mind, the Jamaicans can lock up advancement from the group stage with a victory here. We won with Guadeloupe +2.5 goals in its opener against Costa Rica but were fortunate to do so after it fell behind by two goals on two separate occasions and also received a red card fairly early in the second half. That red card will result in key defender/midfielder Steve Solvet missing this match. I have concerns when it comes to the Guadeloupe defense in this one after it looked rather disorganized against a slower Costa Rica squad than it will face on Friday. While goalkeeper Yohann Thuram was the hero in a penalty shootout win over Guatemala to reach this tournament, he has looked shaky at times and that was certainly the case in the match against Costa Rica. There's a considerable class difference that I'm not sure is being properly reflected in this line, partly due to Guadeloupe's respectable 3-1 defeat at the hands of Costa Rica. Jamaica wasn't quite as sharp as it would have liked against Suriname but I expect to see a more cohesive performance here. While I like some of the pieces Guadeloupe has up front, most notably Mirval, Phaeton and Ramothe, I suspect it will have a different time breaking down a Jamaican defense that has the potential to perform better than it did on Monday. Take Jamaica -1.5 goals (9*). | |||||||
07-15-21 | United States -2.5 v. Martinique | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on USA -2.5 goals over Martinique at 9:30 pm et on Thursday. | |||||||
07-15-21 | Canada v. Haiti +1.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Haiti +1.5 goals over Canada at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. Haiti has been struck by Covid issues in this tournament, likely to miss seven players once again for Thursday's critical match against Canada. Nevertheless, the Haitians put forth a valiant effort against the USA in their Gold Cup opener and I expect them to be a 'tough out' against Canada as well. Canada cruised to a 4-1 victory against an overmatched Martinique squad in its tournament opener. A win here would obviously put it in the driver's seat for advancement from the group stage. Haiti on the other hand will be desperate to at least gain a point here before closing the opening round with a winnable match against Martinique. Despite getting shutout in its opener, Haiti did have its share of scoring opportunities against the Americans and will have something to build on here. Having also been shutout in two World Cup Qualifying matches against Canada prior to this tournament, I expect Haiti to make a concerted effort to put pressure on the Canadian defense here, which was never really tested by Martinique. While Canada's first victory was lopsided in nature, it's worth noting that it didn't extend the lead to three goals until the closing minutes of the match and that was with Martinique appearing punchless at both ends of the pitch. It will be up against a far more cagey side here, and I believe the familiarity between these two squads lends itself to a tightly contested affair. Take Haiti +1.5 goals (9*). | |||||||
07-14-21 | Mexico -2.75 v. Guatemala | 3-0 | Win | 50 | 15 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on Mexico -2.75 goals over Guatemala at 9:30 pm et on Wednesday. This is a nightmarish spot for Guatemala as it faces a furious Mexican side coming off a stunning 0-0 draw against Trinidad and Tobago in its Gold Cup opener - a match that was marred by questionable officiating and an injury to Mexican star Hirving Lozano. There's really no reason to knock Mexico for that 0-0 result. It dominated play for 90 minutes and probably deserved a better fate as their should have almost certainly been a penalty called on the play that injured Lozano, not to mention another goal that was called back due to a questionable offside call. Nevertheless, Mexico held 83% of the possession in that contest, firing 30 shots with seven hitting target. It racked up an incredible 31 crosses in the draw and held Trinidad and Tobago without a single shot on goal. In fact, Mexico hasn't allowed a single shot on target in its last two contests. Guatemala is only in this tournament due to Curacao being forced to withdraw due to positive Covid results. I don't think there's any question, El Salvador overlooked Guatemala in the opener. Still, the floodgates eventually opened with El Salvador finding a couple of late goals in a 2-0 victory. In the loss, Guatemala managed only 31% of the possession while allowing 21 shots with six on target and 24 crosses. Guatemala itself managed just one shot on target in the loss. Goal differential becomes a factor here after Mexico's scoreless draw to open the tournament. I don't expect to see the Mexicans take their foot off the gas should they build a lead in this contest, noting that they secured a 3-0 victory over the Guatemalans the last time they squared off in a friendly match last September. Take Mexico -2.75 goals (9*). | |||||||
07-14-21 | Suns +4 v. Bucks | Top | 103-109 | Loss | -109 | 59 h 20 m | Show |
NBA Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Phoenix plus the points over Milwaukee at 9 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the Bucks in Game 3 of this series on Sunday but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Suns as they look to grab a 3-1 stranglehold in this series on Wednesday night. Sunday's result could be chalked up as an anomaly as Phoenix had previously gone a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS when playing on two or more days' rest in these playoffs. It actually got off to a terrific start in that contest but ultimately couldn't match the Bucks desperation and fell behind by 20+ points entering the fourth quarter. The fact that Frank Kaminsky saw 13 minutes of playing time in that game tells you all you need to know about how that one played out. Here, we can expect the Suns to make the necessary defensive adjustments after Giannis Antetokounmpo went off for 41 points on 14-of-23 shooting (13-of-17 at the free throw line) in Game 3. It was just a solid all-around bounce-back game for the Bucks on Sunday with Jrue Holliday finally getting going again as well, knocking down 8-of-14 shots for 21 points. In the loss, Devin Booker shot a miserable 3-of-14 for 10 points for the Suns. We saw a similarly bad performance from him in Game 3 against the Clippers last round - a game Phoenix lost by 14 points. He responded by scoring 25 points in the next game, which the Suns won by an 84-80 score. In fact, the Suns are a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS in these playoffs after Booker is held to less than 20 points, winning those next games by an average margin of 14 points. Note that Phoenix checks in an incredible 9-1 ATS when revenging a double-digit road loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 12 points in that situation. The Suns have shot below 50% in three straight games to open this series. The last time they shot below that mark in three consecutive games they exploded with a 130-point outburst on 56.4% shooting on the road in Game 6 against the Clippers last round. Take Phoenix (10*). | |||||||
07-14-21 | El Salvador v. Trinidad & Tobago UNDER 2 | 2-0 | Push | 0 | 13 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' 2.25 goals between El Salvador and Trinidad and Tobago at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday. NOTE: I would recommend playing this total at 2.25 or 2.5 if that becomes available (totals have generally been rising throughout the day in this tournament), giving us the opportunity to still get a return should the final score land on two goals. El Salvador only managed to break through with two goals in the final stages of its opening match against lowly Guatemala - a team that only got in this tournament thanks to Curacao's Covid issues, which forced it to withdraw. While El Salvador will likely hold the majority of the possession once again in this match, the question remains whether it can break through, noting that it was previously held scoreless in a 1-0 loss to Qatar (which gave up three goals against Panama last night) in a pre-tournament friendly match. Trinidad and Tobago will certainly be looking to earn at least another point here after a stunning 0-0 draw against mighty Mexico in its tournament opener. There's little reason to expect it to switch up its gameplan and go on the attack in this one as it simply doesn't have the offensive firepower to keep pace in that type of affair. Trinidad and Tobago has scored just two goals in three matches going back to the start of June, and those two tallies came against Saint Kitts and Nevis - a team that holds a 135th FIFA ranking. With three points already under its belt, El Salvador is in the driver's seat in the group and ahead of a tough match against Mexico will certainly be content to earn at least a point in this match. Unlike what we saw in last night's two matches, I expect this to be a cagey, low-scoring contest, as the relatively low total implies. Take the under 2.25 goals (9*). | |||||||
07-13-21 | Grenada v. Honduras UNDER 3 | 0-4 | Loss | -103 | 14 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' 3.0 goals between Honduras and Grenada at 9 pm et on Tuesday. Grenada checks in as decided underdogs in its group here at the Gold Cup. I have a hard time envisioning it breaking down an experienced and talented Honduras back-end but on the flip side, Honduras isn't the side it once was and I'm not convinced that a blowout is imminent in this group stage opener. Honduras is undergoing a 'rebuild' of sorts right now, having been on the decline since missing out on the 2018 World Cup. You would have to go back to 2019 to find the last time it won a match inside 90 minutes, which is obviously a concern as it finds itself in a tough group that also includes CONCACAF outsider Qatar and Panama. Gaining three points from this match is obviously paramount but I believe a 1-0 or 2-0 result is the most likely outcome. Grenada won't be able to lean on a great deal of experience, with the majority of its attackers under the age of 25. That's what makes the prospect of finding a goal so difficult here as it goes up against a stout Honduras defense that just held Mexico without a shot on target last time out. One of the strengths of this Grenada squad is in its last line of defense as goalkeeper Jason Belfon is expected to make his 44th appearance. I would expect Grenada to play a somewhat conservative style here as it looks to contain Honduras and perhaps steal a point to open this tournament. The fact that Honduras is expected to give playing time to striker Jerry Bengston is telling when you consider that he hasn't featured in this tournament in a decade. Short on offensive firepower, I'm not convinced it will be looking to attack should it build a lead as expected. Take the under (9*). | |||||||
07-13-21 | Panama v. Qatar OVER 2 | 3-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' 2.0 goals between Qatar and Panama at 7 pm et on Tuesday. I'm fairly high on this Qatar side entering the Gold Cup as it makes its first tournament appearance by way of an invite in advance of hosting next year's World Cup. The 'outsiders' in this tournament are favored to advance from their group and rightfully so, with a cohesive squad featuring many players that play and train together at the club level in their home country. Qatar is brimming with talent up front, led by dynamic striker Akram Afif. Don't be fooled by the fact it was held to just a single goal against El Salvador in a friendly match earlier this month - Qatar was penalized with a red card in the first 20 minutes in that contest, forcing it to play back on its heels the rest of the way. While Qatar is on a run of clean sheets right now, it has also been facing inferior squads in World Cup Qualifying - the likes of Oman, India and Bangladesh. The fact that it was able to post a shutout despite being a man down most of the way against El Salvador was impressive but here it will go up against a Panama side that has lost only one group stage fixture in this tournament going all the way back to 2011. Panama may not be the same team it was when it reached the World Cup in 2018 but it still should pose a challenge here. Knowing that it is unlikely to keep Qatar off the scoresheet entirely, its focus should be on generating scoring opportunities after being shut out in each of its last two matches. Panama didn't start veteran striker Gabriel Torres in either of those two contests but he is expected to feature here. Prior to its last two matches, Panama had scored at least a goal in five consecutive contests in World Cup Qualifying. That included a 13-0 drubbing of Anguilla back in early June. While we won't see an offensive explosion from the Panamanians against a well-organized Qatar side here, I do expect it to do enough to help this one 'over' the relatively low total. Take the over (9*). | |||||||
07-12-21 | Guadeloupe +2.25 v. Costa Rica | 1-3 | Win | 50 | 14 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on Guadeloupe +2.5 goals over Costa Rica at 9 pm et on Monday. Costa Rica made a splash at the 2014 World Cup but it's been mostly downhill since then as it has fallen from the 15th ranked team in the World (according to FIFA rankings) to 50th, where it currently resides. Yes, Costa Rica 'should' win this match on pedigree alone, however I don't think Guadeloupe will go down easily. Guadeloupe is playing with house money in this tournament after booking its ticket with a thrilling shootout victory over Guatemala last week. Putting the level of competition aside, Guadeloupe has now won each of its last six matches while Costa Rica checks in winless over that same stretch. I love the setup of the 'Gwada Boys' up front as they feature clinical attackers in Phaeton, Mirval and Ramothe that should be able to take advantage of an older, slower Costa Rica squad. I believe the door is open for Guadeloupe to find the back of the net at least once in this match, noting that Costa Rica did not include PSG goalkeeper Keylor Navas on its squad for this tournament. Should that happen, Costa Rica will be hard-pressed to find the four goals needed to cover this lofty goal-line spread. Take Guadeloupe +2.5 goals (9*). | |||||||
07-12-21 | Suriname v. Jamaica -205 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Jamaica over Suriname at 6:30 pm et on Monday. Jamaica hasn't exactly been setting the world on fire in recent matches but it is coming off an encouraging 1-1 draw against top 25 FIFA-ranked squad Serbia (in a game it led 1-0 until the latter stages) and should gets its Gold Cup campaign off to a promising start with a victory over upstart Suriname on Monday. Suriname is coming off a 4-0 drubbing at the hands of the Canada but has shown some promise lately, particularly on the attack. With that being said, its opposing slate has left a lot to be desired. This is a soccer nation that is still building up its reputation and I don't believe it's ready to stage an upset of a Jamaica squad that still has its eyes on World Cup 2022 qualification. While the bulk of Jamaica's roster plays (and stars) in MLS, Suriname draws most of its talent from the lower divisions in the Netherlands. Jamaica already has the tournament experience that Suriname is looking to gain here in its Gold Cup debut. While the Surinamese aren't going to roll over, I do expect Jamaica's depth and talent to ultimately prevail. Take Jamaica (9*). | |||||||
07-11-21 | Lynx v. Sparks OVER 158 | 86-61 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Los Angeles at 9 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'under' in the Lynx most recent game - a stunning 10-point win in Las Vegas on Friday night. Minnesota is playing as well offensively as any team in the league right now and I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'over' as it heads to Los Angeles to wrap up pre-Olympic play on Sunday night. While the Lynx scored just 77 points in that win over the Aces, that had more to do with game flow than anything else. After building a 15-point lead at the end of the first quarter, and with the Aces making Liz Cambage a late scratch, they didn't have to pour it on for four quarters and essentially pumped the brakes in the second half. Note that the last two times the Lynx have been held under 80 points they've put up 86 and 87 points in their next game with the 'over' going a perfect 2-0. The Sparks continue to struggle without a number of key players but should put forth a strong effort here as they look to snap a five-game skid prior to the Olympic break. Keep in mind, their last four games have come against the Aces and Storm. They got bogged down offensively in those contests but should bounce back here. While the Lynx are a quality defensive team, they do allow just shy of 80 points per game on the road this season and could suffer a bit of a letdown here after limiting the Aces to 35.8% shooting last time out. Having already won the first meeting in this series by 16 points this season it would be easy for them to overlook the Sparks here with the Olympic break on deck. Los Angeles does average nearly two points above its season scoring average at home this season. Look for a higher-scoring contest than most are expecting here. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
07-11-21 | Suns v. Bucks -177 | Top | 100-120 | Win | 100 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
NBA Moneyline Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee moneyline over Phoenix at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. There's obviously plenty of 'Suns in four' talk entering Game 3 of this series on Sunday night in Milwaukee. I'm not convinced it's going to be that straight-forward for Phoenix, however. Note that the Bucks check in 8-1 straight-up when playing at home after losing two of their last three games this season, outscoring opponents by 15.6 points per game in that situation. They're also 11-3 SU when revenging a double-digit road loss over the last two seasons and an impressive 27-7 SU when playing at home after an ATS loss over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 12.2 points in that spot. Phoenix has gotten incredible offensive production from all over the court in the first two games of this series. Keep in mind, they do score and allow 1.5 points per game less and more, respectively, than their season average on the road this season. Meanwhile, the Bucks have barely managed to play above .500 basketball on the road this season but check in 22 games over .500 here at home, where they allow nearly two points per game less than their season average. Despite how the first two games in this series have gone, the Bucks are still outscoring opponents by an average margin of 4.3 points in these playoffs. They're obviously in desperate need of a victory to give themselves any sort of chance in this series and I look for them to come up with just that on Sunday night. Take Milwaukee moneyline (10*). | |||||||
07-11-21 | England v. Italy UNDER 2 | 1-1 | Push | 0 | 17 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first half 'under' 1.0 goal between Italy and England at 3 pm et on Sunday. NOTE: I'm recommending playing the alternate first half total of 1.0 goal if your book offers such an option on Sunday. Consider this a 9* play if 'under' 0.75 goals in the first half is your only option. We won with the Spain-Italy full game 'under' and the England-Denmark first half 'over' in the semi-final round and I believe we're well-positioned to cash this first half total in Sunday's epic Final between Italy and England as well. England had its hand forced early on against Denmark in the semis. It was put back on its heels after Denmark managed to break through with an early free kick goal just outside the penalty box and the match essentially changed from there. The Three Lions were able to answer inside the first 45 minutes but that was it for scoring until extra time. Here, I'm anticipating another cagey affair between England and Italy - with the latter proving to be perhaps the most impressive outfit in this entire tournament. We've seen the Italians look dominant at both ends of the pitch. I do expect to see a bit of a 'feeling out process' early in this showdown on Sunday, however. The Italians perhaps haven't looked quite as decisive on the attack in recent matches, which has a lot to do with the level of competition it has faced. England has suddenly looked extremely dangerous offensively following a bit of a slow start to the tournament. With that being said, this is clearly its toughest test of the tournament to date. It's not going to be easy to break down a stout Italian defense. The argument can certainly be made that both teams are here thanks to their defensive prowess and form more than anything else. I just don't envision any early breakthroughs. A 0-0 halftime result seems most likely and while we're being asked to pay a considerable tariff to play the 'under' at a full goal, I believe the price is warranted. Take the first half under (10*). | |||||||
07-11-21 | Yankees v. Astros OVER 8.5 | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between New York and Houston at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. | |||||||
07-10-21 | Reds v. Brewers -189 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -189 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
MLB Big Chalk Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee over Cincinnati at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. We're being asked to lay a pretty steep price to back a Brewers club that has been a little uneven of late but I believe it's warranted. Cincinnati will hand the ball to Vladimir Gutierrez. He'll be making his third consecutive start on just four days' rest and he'll be facing the Brewers for the third time this season. Milwaukee hasn't had a ton of success against him (it dropped both previous meetings) but there are certainly building blocks for success in place as it collected 10 hits, five walks and four earned runs over 13 innings in its two previous looks at the rookie right-hander. While Gutierrez was sharp in his first four big league starts, his last four haven't gone so swimmingly as he's allowed 16 earned runs on 25 hits over 21 1/3 innings. That's not to mention his less than impressive 17:11 strikeout-to-walk ratio over that stretch. Gutierrez averages just 5.5 innings per start this season, meaning we should see plenty of a Reds bullpen that has posted a 4.85 ERA and 1.47 WHIP on the road this season (entering last night's action). Also note that Cincinnati hasn't had an off day since June 23rd so we're talking about an overworked bullpen right now. Freddy Peralta will counter for Milwaukee. He owns a sparkling 1.79 ERA and 0.64 WHIP in eight home starts this season with the Brewers winning five of those games. Unlike Gutierrez, Peralta hasn't had to pitch on four days' rest since May 16th and won't do so here either. The Reds will be seeing Peralta for the fourth time this season but have never really figured him out, managing to score just five earned runs on 10 hits in 15 2/3 innings. The Brewers have come away victorious in five of Peralta's last six starts against Cincinnati. Behind Peralta is a Brewers bullpen that has been at its best in night games this season, posting a collective 3.29 ERA and 1.22 WHIP (entering last night's action). Here at home they've converted 15 saves while blowing only six. Take Milwaukee (10*). | |||||||
07-10-21 | Royals v. Indians OVER 9 | Top | 6-14 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
MLB First Five Innings Total of the Month. My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Kansas City and Cleveland at 6:10 pm et on Saturday. | |||||||
07-10-21 | Phillies v. Red Sox OVER 11 | 11-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Boston at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. This is obviously a very high posted total for a game not played at Coors Field but I believe it's warranted. Matt Moore gets the start for the Phillies. He's actually been solid in two starts since returning to the rotation in late June. Here, he'll be pitching on four days' rest for the first time this season, however. He'll also be facing a Red Sox club that has averaged seven runs per game in their last six games against left-handed starters. Behind Moore is a Phillies bullpen that has posted a collective 5.17 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in day games this season blowing eight saves while converting only four. Martin Perez will counter for Boston. He's having a fine season but is in a bit of a tough spot today, making his third consecutive start on four days' rest. It's also worth noting that he has posted an inflated 5.66 ERA and 1.77 WHIP in 10 home starts. We've seen him labor through his last three outings, allowing 21 hits in 14 1/3 innings of work. He's also topped out at three strikeouts in his last six starts. The Red Sox bullpen has been solid this season but if there's a spot they're vulnerable it's in day games as they've recorded a collective 4.28 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
07-09-21 | Lynx v. Aces -6.5 | Top | 77-67 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
WNBA Revenge Game of the Year. My selection is on Las Vegas minus the points over Minnesota at 10:30 pm et on Friday. The Aces have plenty of reason to get up for Friday night's showdown with the Lynx in Las Vegas as they come off a tough overtime loss against Phoenix, at home no less, and look to avenge a narrow one-point loss suffered in Minnesota on June 25th. We won with the Aces this past Sunday as they cruised to a 23-point rout of Atlanta. They couldn't follow that performance up with another stellar effort, however, as they shot just 43.9% from the field in an overtime loss to the Mercury on Wednesday night. Keep in mind, the Aces are averaging an incredible 96.7 points per game on 49.9% shooting here at home this season. They've been a much more potent offensive team at home compared to on the road while also holding the opposition to just 39.5% shooting. That's why it's somewhat perplexing that we're 'only' being asked to lay 6.5 points (at the time of writing) in this spot given the Aces closed as six-point favorites on the road against Minnesota in that most recent meeting on June 25th. Perhaps it has something to do with the fact that the Lynx have gone on a tear, entering this game riding a five-game winning streak. Former Aces sharp-shooter Kayla McBride has been absolutely on fire over the last few games but what better team to slow her down than her former one. The Lynx aren't exactly brimming with scoring depth, relying heavily on veteran Sylvia Fowles and McBride. Bridget Carleton did chip in with 10 points off the bench in Wednesday's win over Dallas but she had previously topped out at just five points in her last six games. This will be Las Vegas' final home game before the extended Olympic break. Meanwhile, Minnesota will wrap up pre-Olympic play with a stop in Los Angeles on Sunday. Take Las Vegas (10*). | |||||||
07-09-21 | Lynx v. Aces UNDER 174 | 77-67 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Las Vegas at 10:30 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'under' in the Lynx last game on Wednesday night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as they being a brief two-game road trip prior to the extended Olympic break. The Lynx are one of the WNBA's better defensive teams, even on the road where they allow just 81.2 points per game (that's actually 0.7 points below their season average) on 43.0% shooting. They're a fairly well-rested team right now as this will be just their third game this month. While Las Vegas is known for its explosive offense, it can play some defense as well, checking in allowing 81.4 points per game on 39.5% shooting here at home this season. With that being said, the 'over' has gone 7-3 in their previous 10 home games which affords us the opportunity to take the contrarian route at a generous number here. Note that the Aces have put up 90 points or more in consecutive games (even though they needed overtime to get there last time out). They've scored 90+ points in back-to-back games on five previous occasions this season with the 'under' going 4-1 in their next game with an average total points scored of just 148.8 points. Minnesota has scored 82 points or more in five straight games but I'm not sure that's a sustainable trend. Former Ace Kayla McBride has been red hot over the last few games but they'll need some help if Minnesota is to continue putting up big offensive numbers. The Lynx are short on scoring depth with little production off the bench on most nights. I don't believe they'll be interested in a track meet here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
07-09-21 | Tigers v. Twins OVER 9 | 2-4 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Friday. We saw a relatively low-scoring contest to open this series last night as the Twins rallied for a 5-3 victory. While Minnesota 'should' pick up a second straight win over the Tigers here, I'm more confident playing the 'over'. Matt Manning gets another start in the Tigers rotation but it's certainly not due to his fine pitching. Quite the contrary, he has been awful in four big league starts this season, allowing 15 earned runs on 25 hits while striking out only six in 17 innings of work. In two road starts Manning has posted an 11.42 ERA and 1.73 WHIP with those two games totaling 12 and 18 runs. Here, he'll be starting on four days' rest for the second time this season after getting tagged for nine earned runs in just 3 2/3 innings in his first opportunity at Cleveland on June 28th. With Manning averaging just 4 1/3 innings per start we should see plenty of the Tigers bullpen in this one as well. They've posted a collective 5.99 ERA and 1.57 WHIP on the road this season (entering last night's action). Also note that Detroit hasn't had an off day in over a week. Kenta Maeda will get the call for Minnesota. He rebounded to deliver one of his best starts of the season in Kansas City last time out. That doesn't change the fact that he's struggled for the most part this season. Even here at home while he has managed to record a respectable 3.29 ERA, his WHIP stands at 1.61. Like Manning, Maeda will be starting on four days' rest - doing so for just the third time since the start of last season. In those two previous starts on short rest, Maeda allowed eight runs, six of them earned, in 10 innings of work with the two games totaling 11 and 13 runs. While Maeda has had previous success against Detroit, they'll be seeing him for the fifth time in the last 11 months. Note that the Tigers are generally good for at least a few runs off of Maeda in six or so innings (he's given up 15 earned runs in 30 previous innings pitched against them) and that just might be all we need from them here to help this one 'over' the total. Behind Maeda is a Twins bullpen that hasn't had an off day since June 28th and has been generally awful at home this season, recording a collective 4.96 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. Worse still, they've posted a 5.70 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in night games. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
07-09-21 | Royals v. Indians -134 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
American League Blowout Game of the Year. My selection is on Cleveland over Kansas City at 7:10 pm et on Friday. We won with the Indians last night as they snapped their nine-game losing streak in thrilling fashion in a 7-4 walk-off victory to open this series against the Royals. It looked pretty bleak for the first seven innings but a couple of late three-run home runs ended up being the difference. I believe the Indians are set up incredibly well to keep building positive momentum on Friday night, even if the starting pitching matchup doesn't look all that favorable on paper. This one has the chance to really get away from the Royals as the game progresses. Brad Keller will take the ball for the Royals. We've been picking on Keller lately, and for good reason. He's once again in an awful spot here, pitching on four days' rest for a ninth consecutive turn in the rotation. Give him credit for hanging in there for 6 1/3 innings against the Twins last time out but that was at home. He has posted a 5.68 ERA and 1.98 WHIP in nine road starts this season and hasn't been any better at night, recording a 6.92 ERA and 1.79 WHIP. Considering Keller averages less than five innings per start we're likely to see plenty of a Royals bullpen that hasn't had an off day since June 21st and entered last night's action sporting a collective 4.75 ERA and 1.46 WHIP on the road this season. Triston McKenzie will make a spot start for the Indians on Friday. The less said about him the better, quite honestly. His numbers this season are awful - there's a reason he was banished from the rotation at the start of June. With that being said, he has inexplicably had the Royals number. In three career starts against them he has allowed just three earned runs on eight hits while striking out 18 and walking five in 16 innings of work. Unlike Keller, McKenzie has a fresh arm having not started since the second week of June. I like the contrarian angle of backing him here, knowing he'll likely be on a short leash. Behind McKenzie is a solid Indians bullpen that entered last night's action with a collective 2.83 ERA and 1.22 WHIP with nine converted saves and only one blown here at home this season. While they did blow a save opportunity last night, they entered that contest having converted 14 of 15 save chances in division games this season. Unlike the Royals, who have been playing every day for weeks, the Indians have been afforded three off days in the last two weeks (with a couple of seven-inning double-headers thrown in the mix). Take Cleveland (10*). | |||||||
07-09-21 | Cardinals v. Cubs UNDER 8.5 | 5-10 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between St. Louis and Chicago at 2:20 pm et on Friday. | |||||||
07-08-21 | Nationals v. Padres UNDER 7 | 8-9 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Washington and San Diego at 9:10 pm et on Thursday. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair between these two teams last night. In fact, each of the first three games in this series have been high-scoring. I look for a different story to unfold on Thursday, however, at least in the early stages of this contest. Max Scherzer will take the ball for Washington. He'll be pitching on a full five days' rest for the first time since missing a turn in the rotation in mid-June. Note that short rest has fazed him as he has allowed just three earned runs in 17 innings over his last three trips to the hill. Scherzer checks in sporting a 2.30 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in eight road starts this season. The Padres had some success against Mad Max early in his career but we're talking over a decade ago. In his last six starts against them he's locked them up, allowing only six earned runs in 42 2/3 innings. By playing the first five innings only we'll avoid a Nationals bullpen that has struggled on the road this season, posting a collective 4.49 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. The Padres will counter with their ace Yu Darvish. All he's done this season is record a sparkling 2.12 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in 11 home starts. He'll be pitching on just four days' rest but that's not a big concern as he hasn't gone beyond the sixth inning in any of his last four starts and hasn't pitched on short rest since June 3rd. Darvish has no recent history against the Nationals, which should give him an advantage here. Take the first five innings under (10*). | |||||||
07-08-21 | Bucks v. Suns UNDER 220 | Top | 108-118 | Loss | -113 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
NBA Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Phoenix at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Suns in Game 1 of this series on Tuesday but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' in Game 2 on Thursday. We saw some nerves early on in Game 1 but once the two teams settled down the offenses started flowing and we didn't see a great deal of tough defensive play. I expect a different story to unfold in Game 2. Generally, I like to play Bucks 'overs' when they come off a win, and 'unders' when they follow a loss. The trends bear it out as Milwaukee has posted an 11-20 o/u record when coming off a loss this season. Better still, the 'under' has gone 12-3 when the Bucks come off three consecutive 'over' results this season, as is the case here. Keep in mind, the 'under' is still 10-7-1 in all Bucks playoff games with an average total of just 214.1 points scored. The 'under' owns a slight 9-8 edge in Suns playoff games with those contests totaling an average of only 211.5 points. While Phoenix won Game 1 there are still adjustments for it to make here after Milwaukee shot 44% from beyond the arc, knocking down 16 three-pointers in the series-opener. Meanwhile, we should see some regression from the Suns in a couple of key areas here after Chris Paul poured in 32 points on 12-of-19 shooting and DeAndre Ayton put up 22 points on 8-of-10 shooting on Tuesday night. Note that it was only the fourth time in these playoffs that CP3 scored more than 22 points while Ayton averages just 14.4 points per game on 62.6% shooting this season. The Bucks obviously need to make some adjustments here and I'm confident they will noting that they allow just 104.5 points per game on 44.3% shooting in these playoffs. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
07-08-21 | Royals v. Indians -128 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
A.L. Central Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland over Kansas City at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. | |||||||
07-08-21 | Yankees v. Mariners +1.5 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle +0.5 runs first five innings over New York at 4:10 pm et on Thursday. The Yankees have taken the first two games in this series but I look for the Mariners to have the early edge against them on Thursday afternoon. Jordan Montgomery gets the nod for New York. The Mariners have actually hit 14 points higher and averaged 0.3 runs per game more against left-handed starters this season, posting a 16-12 record along the way. Montgomery hasn't been good on the road, where he owns a 5.53 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. In six daytime starts he has posted a 5.97 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. Note that he'll be pitching on just four days' rest on Thursday after laboring through 4 1/3 innings in his most recent start against the Mets. By playing the first five innings only we'll look to avoid a Yankees bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a collective 3.02 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with 11 saves converted and only two blown on the road this season. Rookie Logan Gilbert will take the ball for Seattle. He's settled in a bit after a shaky start to his big league career. Gilbert has been at his absolute best in daytime starts, posting a 1.83 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in four outings with the Mariners winning all four of those games. Note that he'll have the advantage of facing the Yankees for the first time and will be pitching on at least five days rest for the 10th straight time to open his career. Playing the first five innings should help us avoid a Mariners bullpen that while effective here at home this season has been overworked lately and just logged another four innings last night. Take Seattle +0.5 runs first five innings (10*). | |||||||
07-08-21 | Dodgers -151 v. Marlins | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 48 m | Show |
MLB First Five Innings Daytime Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles first five innings over Miami at 12:10 pm et on Thursday. The Dodgers have inexplicably dropped the first three games in this series but I look for them to get off to a positive start at the very least in Thursday's afternoon affair. Julio Urias will take the ball for Los Angeles. He'll be making his second straight start on a full five days' rest and checks in sporting a 3.40 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in nine road starts this season with the Dodgers winning seven of those games. Better still, Urias has recorded a 3.12 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in seven daytime outings this season. While he got lit up in his lone previous start against the Marlins, that came over four years ago and has little bearing on today's matchup. By playing the first five innings only we'll avoid a Dodgers bullpen that has posted a collective 4.48 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in day games this season. Sandy Alcantara will counter for Miami. His worst start of the season came against the Dodgers back on May 14th as he was chased after allowing eight earned runs in just 1 1/3 innings. He was pitching on four days' rest on that night, and he'll be doing the same here today. Note that he has labored through his last two outings, allowing 11 hits and six runs, four of them earned, while posting a 7:7 strikeout-to-walk ratio in just 11 1/3 innings of work. Here, we'll look to avoid a Marlins bullpen that has been quietly efficient at home this season, recording a collective 2.81 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Take Los Angeles first five innings (10*). | |||||||
07-07-21 | Nationals v. Padres -170 | 15-5 | Loss | -170 | 14 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego over Washington at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Padres busted out of a 1-4 slide with a 7-4 victory last night and I look for them to build on that performance here. Washington will hand the ball to struggling left-hander Patrick Corbin. He's had a miserable season so far and doesn't figure to turn it around here. Corbin has posted a 6.56 ERA and 1.49 WHIP on the road this season with the Nats' winning just two of his seven starts. Behind Corbin is an overworked Washington bullpen that hasn't had an off day since June 21st and has posted a collective 4.55 ERA and 1.36 WHIP on the road this season. Chris Paddack will start for the Padres. While he hasn't been great this season he has been at his best at night, recording a 4.03 ERA and 1.12 WHIP with the Padres winning six of his nine starts. He'll have the advantage of facing the Nationals for the first time in his career tonight. The Padres bullpen has been as good as it gets at home this season, recording a 2.90 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with 19 saves converted and only six blown. Take San Diego (10*). | |||||||
07-07-21 | Cardinals v. Giants -175 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 35 m | Show |
MLB Blowout Game of the Year. My selection is on San Francisco over St. Louis at 9:45 pm et on Wednesday. The Cardinals have taken the first two games of this series but I look for the Giants to answer back and avoid the sweep on Wednesday night. Johan Oviedo gets the call for the Cardinals. He's been absolutely dreadful on the road this season, recording a 6.20 ERA and 2.02 WHIP in five starts with the Cards winning only two of those games. Here, he'll be making his third consecutive start on just four days' rest. Over his last three outings he has allowed 19 hits and 10 earned runs to go along with an ugly 8:8 strikeout-to-walk ratio in just 13 2/3 innings of work. Behind Oviedo is a Cards bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a 4.52 ERA and 1.46 WHIP on the road this season with just eight saves converted compared to six blown. Left-hander Alex Wood will counter for San Francisco. It's worth noting that the Cards have been a weaker team against southpaw pitchers this season, hitting a collective .222 and averaging just 3.7 runs per game. They have had some success against Wood in the past, but have never faced him away from home and haven't had a look at him in nearly two years. Wood checks in with a 4.09 ERA and 1.16 WHIP at home this season, with the Giants winning five of his eight starts. The Giants bullpen has been outstanding at home this season, recording a collective 3.05 ERA and 1.04 WHIP with 15 saves converted and only three blown. Take San Francisco (10*). | |||||||
07-07-21 | Canadiens v. Lightning -224 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
My selection is on Tampa Bay -1.0 goal over Montreal at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. | |||||||
07-07-21 | Phillies v. Cubs +1.5 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago +1.5 runs over Philadelphia at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. It's not easy to back the Cubs right now as they enter this game riding an 11-game losing streak. We just lost with them last night +1.5 runs but I won't hesitate to come back with the same play on Wednesday night. The Phillies will give the nod to their ace, Zack Wheeler on Wednesday night. I don't have much negative to say about Wheeler, who is having a career year. With that being said, he will be starting on just four days' rest for the third straight turn in the rotation after working at least seven innings in each of his last two starts. Despite his stellar overall numbers, the Phillies are still just 7-10 when factoring in the -1.5 run-line in his 17 outings this season. Behind Wheeler is a Phillies bullpen that hasn't been good on the road this season, posting a collective 4.26 ERA and 1.36 WHIP with 10 converted saves to go along with 10 blown. Alec Mills will counter for Chicago. He has quietly pitched well in five starts this season, recording a 3.52 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. While he averages less than five innings per start that's not a major concern given the Cubs bullpen has been their strong suit, posting a collective 2.87 ERA and 1.18 WHIP with 13 converted saves and only three blown at home this season. Mills will have the advantage of facing the Phillies for the first time in his career on Wednesday. Take Chicago +1.5 runs (10*). | |||||||
07-07-21 | Wings v. Lynx UNDER 169.5 | Top | 79-85 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
WNBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Minnesota at 8 pm et on Wednesday. Both of these teams are coming off consecutive peak offensive performances but I'll go the contrarian route and back the 'under' in this one as they match up in Minnesota on Wednesday night. Dallas has shot 50% or better in consecutive games for the first time this season. Keep in mind, prior to those two performances the Wings had shot 42.3% or worse in consecutive contests. They check in shooting just 43.4% on the road this season. The Wings have seen the 'over' cash in three straight games - their longest 'over' streak of the season. In fact, only once this season have they seen the 'over' cash in three out of four games and on that occasion, their next contest totaled just 135 points. Minnesota has shot better than 50% from the field in three of its last four games but it's interesting to note that all three of those performances came on the road. Here at home the Lynx are shooting just north of 45% on the season. The 'over' has cashed in four of the Lynx last five games overall. That situation has come up twice previously this season and on both of those occasions their next game totaled exactly 158 points with the 'under' going 2-0. This is the highest total we've seen in three meetings between these two teams this season. Look for it to prove to be too high. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
07-07-21 | Denmark v. England OVER 2 | 1-1 | Push | 0 | 7 h 55 m | Show | |
Euro First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'over' 0.5 goals between England and Denmark at 3 pm et on Wednesday. Yesterday's semi-final match between Italy and Spain saw a goalless first half as both teams' ball possession prowess was on full display. I'm anticipating a different type of contest on Wednesday - at least early on - as England and Denmark battle to decide which squad faces the Italians in the Euro 2020 Final. Unlike Italy and Spain, these two teams are unlikely to be content simply possessing the ball. I think both know that they're going to need to find the back of the net once, but more likely twice to secure victory here. England has recorded a clean sheet in each of its first five Euro matches. It's worth noting that no side has ever done so in six consecutive matches in World Cup/Euro history. The Three Lions will undoubtedly have their hands full trying to contain a Denmark side that has gotten stronger with each passing match and has managed to score at least a goal in 11 of its last 12 matches overall (the only shutout came against Finland under terrible circumstances with Christian Eriksen's on-field cardiac arrest in the Danes tournament opener). I like the confidence the English have shown as they've gone on the attack against Germany and Ukraine with the onset of the knockout portion of the tournament. Gareth Southgate has a wealth of options at his disposal, and most involve players that look to push forward and apply pressure on opposing defenses. Denmark has certainly found its form offensively with Kasper Dolberg supplanting Yussuf Poulson and tallying three goals in the last two matches. The Danes have managed to reach the target on 25 of 43 shot attempts over their last three matches after doing so on just 11 of 43 attempts in their first two contests. Jordan Pickford is an excellent keeper on the English side but he hasn't been all that busy in this tournament, recording just nine saves in five matches. Denmark has conceded at least a goal in four of its five tournament matches to date but has yet to concede a first half goal. I'm not sure that's a sustainable trend, however, and again I think we see a different type of affair compared to what we watched between two ball-possession minded squads in Italy and Spain yesterday. Getting out on the front foot will be paramount for both England and Denmark in this match and I believe an early breakthrough will be in the cards. If your book offers alternate first half totals I would suggest playing this one at a slightly steeper price at 0.5 rather than the standard 0.75 being offered, ensuring the win should the first 45 minutes see a single goal. Virtually all books offer the opportunity to play alternate first half totals by way of live betting as soon as the match kicks off. Take the first half over (10*). | |||||||
07-07-21 | Braves -137 v. Pirates | 14-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta over Pittsburgh at 12:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Braves are going to be a popular play on Wednesday afternoon but that doesn't mean they're the wrong one. Drew Smyly will get the start for Atlanta. While there have been some shaky moments, he has generally exceeded expectations for the Braves so far this season and brings excellent form into this start having posted a sparkling 0.52 ERA and 0.87 WHIP over his last three outings. Here, Smyly will face a Pirates club that averages just 3.3 runs per game against left-handed starting pitching this season. With the Braves playing confidently behind Smyly, winners of each of their last five games with him on the hill, he's the ideal starter to serve as stopper after dropping the first two games in this series. William Crowe starts for Pittsburgh. The Braves have certainly had his number having faced him twice and scored seven earned runs including four home runs in just 7 1/3 innings against him going back to last September. Crowe owns a 5.66 ERA and 1.65 WHIP at home this season and averages only 4.1 innings per start here at PNC Park which might be a problem given the Pirates haven't had a day off since June 21st and their bullpen has already worked seven innings in the first two games of this series. Take Atlanta (9*). | |||||||
07-06-21 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the first five innings 'under' in the D'Backs most recent game - a 5-2 loss to the Giants on Sunday. Here, I'll switch gears and back the 'over' as they open a series at home against the Rockies. Jon Gray will make his third start for the Rockies since returning from a stint on the I.L. He's held up well in his last two outings but I expect him to struggle here. Note that Gray has posted a 5.70 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in five road starts this season with the 'over' cashing in four of those games. The D'Backs will be getting their fourth look at Gray already this season and sixth going back to last August. They've had some success against him, particularly here at home, where they most recent chased him after scoring five runs, four of them earned, over six innings in a 7-2 victory on April 30th. With Gray averaging less than five innings per start on the road this season we'll likely see plenty of the Rockies awful bullpen which owns a 5.50 ERA and 1.58 WHIP on the road this season. Merrill Kelly will counter for Arizona. He has been pitching reasonably well of late but finds himself in a bit of a tough spot here, pitching on four days' rest for a fifth straight turn in the rotation. Kelly's overall numbers are fine this season but there's no question, the Rockies have had his number, already facing him twice this year and scoring eight earned runs on 16 hits in just 11 2/3 innings. Kelly's last four starts against Colorado have resulted in 9, 14, 10 and 12 total runs. Behind Kelly is a D'Backs bullpen that has recorded a collective 5.06 ERA and 1.52 WHIP with just four saves converted compared to five blown here at home this season. Worse still, against division opponents, the Arizona 'pen has posted a 6.35 ERA and 1.70 WHIP with three saves converted and eight blown. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
07-06-21 | Bucks v. Suns -6 | 105-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Milwaukee at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Suns have actually dropped the cash in each of their last two home games which is notable as they've lost three consecutive home games ATS only once this entire season, that coming way back in January when they just weren't playing good basketball, mired in a 3-7 stretch. Here, I look for the well-rested Suns to come up with a big Finals-opening performance, regardless whether the Bucks have the services of Giannis Antetokounmpo or not. Milwaukee has of course been a different team on the road compared to at home this season. You wouldn't know it based on its most recent dominant performance, closing out the Hawks in Atlanta in blowout fashion on Saturday. Note that the Bucks are still just 19-26 ATS on the road this season where they allow just shy of 114 points per game. The Suns on the other hand, have gone 28-16 ATS on their home floor, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 8.9 points. Note that the Bucks are just 5-13 ATS after winning three of their last four games ATS this season, outscored by an average margin of 3.2 points in that situation. They're also a miserable 8-23 ATS after winning six or seven of their last eight games this season, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Phoenix owns an incredible 16-3 ATS record as a home favorite of six points or less this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 11.8 points in that spot. When coming off a double-digit win over a division opponent (as is the case here after their blowout victory over the Clippers last time out), the Suns have gone a perfect 7-0 ATS this season, outscoring opponents by 14.2 points on average. Take Phoenix (10*). | |||||||
07-06-21 | A's v. Astros UNDER 8.5 | 6-9 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Oakland and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair as the A's and Astros open their series in Houston on Tuesday night. Chris Bassitt will take the ball for the A's. If you've followed my plays regularly you know that I've been high on Bassitt all season, even during a tough stretch to open the campaign. He brings excellent form into this start having posted a 1.35 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over his last three outings. Here, he'll be making his second straight start on five days' rest. Bassitt has certainly held his own on the road, where he has posted a 3.52 ERA and 1.14 WHIP this season, with the 'under' cashing in five of his nine starts. While he hasn't been great in his career against the Astros, given his current form I think Bassitt can overcome his previous struggles against them here. The A's bullpen got a much-needed off day yesterday and checks in sporting a collective 3.75 ERA and 1.31 WHIP on the road this season. Interestingly, they've converted 15 saves while blowing just five in night games this season. Left-hander Framber Valdez will counter for Houston. He's currently one of the most underrated starting pitchers in baseball. In three home starts he has recorded a sparkling 2.00 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. Better still, in five nighttime starts he has posted a 1.95 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. The A's got two looks at Valdez last season and never figured him out, managing just three earned runs in 14 innings. Like the A's, the Astros bullpen also enjoyed an off day on Monday. The Houston relief corps has been at their best against division opponents this season, posting a collective 3.69 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 126 2/3 innings of work. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
07-06-21 | Phillies v. Cubs +1.5 | Top | 15-10 | Loss | -126 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
N.L. Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago +1.5 runs over Philadelphia at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Cubs are obviously reeling right now, having not won a game since June 24th. After getting blown out 13-3 in the opener of this series last night, I look for them to bounce back and at the very least take this one down to the wire on Tuesday. Aaron Nola will take the ball for the Phillies. Like the rest of his team, he has struggled on the road this season, posting a 5.32 ERA and 1.33 WHIP to go along with a 3-6 team record in nine starts. Note that he has lasted more than 5 1/3 innings just once in his last six trips to the hill. That's concerning as the Phillies bullpen has struggled on the road this season, posting a collective 3.96 ERA and 1.33 WHIP with 10 converted saves to go along with 10 blown. Despite last night's victory, the Phils are still 10 games under .500 on the road this season. Jake Arrieta will counter for Chicago. While it's not saying much, he has been better at home this season than on the road, posting a 4.08 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. He'll likely be on a short leash here after struggling in his last several starts but that's not a bad thing as the Cubs bullpen has recorded a terrific 2.78 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with 13 saves converted and only three blown at home this season. Note that Arrieta will be pitching on five days' rest here. The last four times he's done so he has allowed just seven earned runs in 21 innings of work. Take Chicago +1.5 runs (10*). | |||||||
07-06-21 | Spain v. Italy UNDER 2.25 | 1-1 | Win | 50 | 8 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' 2.5 goals between Italy and Spain at 3 pm et on Tuesday. NOTE: I'm recommending a play on the 'under' at 2.5 goals rather than the standard 2.25 being offered at most books. This of course ensures we're paid out should the game land on two goals (excluding extra time). We've had a pretty good read on Italy in this tournament, cashing three tickets along the way. After getting bogged down against Austria in the knockout round we saw the Azzurri come up big in a 2-1 victory over number one ranked Belgium. Here, I think we'll see Italy have a difficult time breaking down a very well-organized Spain squad, however. That goes both ways though. Italy hadn't conceded a goal in this tournament (and well before that as well) before giving one up in extra time against Austria. On Saturday, the only goal it conceded against Belgium came by way of a penalty. Spain is obviously loaded with talent all over the pitch and particularly up front but it still couldn't break the deadlock against Switzerland in the quarters despite the Swiss going down a man due to a red card in the 77th minute. Switzerland managed to keep a clean sheet from there, including 30 minutes of extra time before falling in a penalty shootout. When you get to this late stage of the tournament, goals can come at a premium and that's precisely what I expect to see on Tuesday. These are two of the best ball possession teams in the field and a 0-0, 1-0 or 1-1 result after 90 minutes seems the most likely outcome. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
07-05-21 | Lightning v. Canadiens +1.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Montreal +1.5 goals over Tampa Bay at 8:05 pm et on Monday. We've focused mostly on totals in this series so far but I'm willing to take a flyer on the Canadiens with an insurance goal on Monday night. This marks the first time this season we've seen the Canadiens lose three consecutive games by two goals or more. Saturday's game essentially got derailed by a couple of early goals allowed and they ended up playing catch-up all night from there. I do expect to see them get off to a better start as they face the prospect of their season ending on Monday night. Note that the Lightning are just 11-14 after winning six or seven of their last eight games this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of just 0.1 goals in that situation. Tampa Bay also averages just 2.1 goals per game when playing on the road after a game that totaled at least nine goals over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 0.2 goals in that spot. Meanwhile, the Canadiens check in 6-1 when coming off a home loss by three goals or more this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.7 goals in that situation. They've also outscored opponents by 0.6 goals on average while allowing just 2.3 goals per contest when revenging two losses where their opponent scored at least three goals this season, with that situation coming up 13 times previously. While I certainly don't believe the Habs can come back and win this series, I don't think we'll see them go away quietly, noting that the Lightning have been involved in a number of tight, low-scoring affairs when attempting to close out a series on the road over the last two seasons (that situation has averaged a total of just 4.0 goals with Tampa Bay outscoring opponents by an average margin of only 0.6 goals, coming up nine times previously). Take Montreal +1.5 goals (9*). | |||||||
07-05-21 | Lightning v. Canadiens UNDER 5 | Top | 2-3 | Push | 0 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
NHL Stanley Cup Final Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and Montreal at 8:05 pm et on Monday. We've alternated playing the 'over' and 'under' in the first three games in this series, going a perfect 3-0 along the way. I'll stick with that approach here in Game 4 as I anticipate a different type of affair than we saw in Saturday's wide-open 6-3 Lightning victory. Saturday's game essentially turned on two Tampa Bay goals in the opening four minutes. Were it not for the Lightning building a considerable lead it's unlikely they would have given up three goals, noting that they had allowed a grand total of just two goals through the first two games of the series. The Lightning check in allowing just 2.0 goals per game in the playoffs while the Canadiens have allowed 2.5. Note that the 'under' has gone 9-2 with the Lightning playing on the road after a game where nine or more goals were scored over the last two seasons with that situation producing an average of just 4.4 total goals. We've also seen the 'under' cash at an 8-1 clip with the Lightning looking to close out a series on the road over the last two seasons with an average total of just 4.0 goals in that spot. Meanwhile, the 'under' has gone 9-2 with the Canadiens seeking revenge for a loss where their opponent scored five or more goals this season. That situation has produced an average total of 5.0 goals. The Lightning have certainly looked unstoppable offensively in this series but it's not as if that's been the case from start to finish in these playoffs. They've actually scored three goals or less in 10 of their last 15 games with the 'under' going 8-5-2 over that stretch (10-5-2 over their last 17 games). I was waiting this one out hoping the total might finally move off of 5.0 to 5.5 but it doesn't look like that's going to happen, rightfully so (although that's certainly an option as an alternate total at most books, albeit at a steeper price). Take the under (10*). | |||||||
07-05-21 | Reds v. Royals OVER 9.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -118 | 22 h 15 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Monday. We missed with the 'over' in the Royals 6-2 loss to the Twins yesterday as the scoring simply started too late. I expect a different story to unfold on Monday night as the Royals open an Interleague series against the Reds. Vladimir Gutierrez will get the call for Cincinnati. He owns a 4.77 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in five nighttime starts this season. Here, he'll be making his second straight start on four days' rest. Considering he has posted an ugly ERA north of eight to go along with an 1.89 WHIP over his last three outings there's reason for concern as he prepares to face the Royals here. Behind Gutierrez is a Reds bullpen that entered yesterday's action sporting a collective 4.77 ERA and 1.44 WHIP on the road this season. Also note that the Reds haven't had an off day since June 23rd. Mike Minor will counter for Kansas City. He'll inexplicably be making his ninth consecutive start on four days' rest. Note that Minor has recorded a 5.57 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in nine home starts this season. Over his last three trips to the hill he has posted an 8.64 ERA and 1.92 WHIP. The Royals bullpen has posted a collective 4.39 ERA and 1.39 WHIP at night this season, converting 10 saves to go along with seven blown. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
07-05-21 | Dodgers v. Marlins UNDER 7 | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Miami at 6:40 pm et on Monday. The Marlins are coming off a wild, high-scoring extra innings loss in Atlanta yesterday but I look for a different story to unfold on Monday. Walker Buehler will get the start for the Dodgers in Monday's series opener. He has struggled in two previous starts here in Miami but those came long enough ago that I'm willing to take a flyer here (his last start in Miami came in August of 2019). He didn't give up a single earned run in two other previous outings against the Marlins in Los Angeles. Back to this season though, Buehler has been outstanding on the road, posting a 2.06 ERA and 0.79 WHIP, averaging just shy of 6 2/3 innings per start. He's coming off one of his better outings of the season and will be pitching on five days' rest for the first time since June 19th when he gave up just two earned runs over 7 1/3 innings in Arizona. The Dodgers bullpen hasn't been as dominant on the road as it has been at home but has certainly pitched well so far on this trip, entering yesterday's game sporting a collective ERA of 0.40 and a 0.94 WHIP over their last seven contests. L.A.'s relief corps checks in with a 3.01 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in night games this season. Trevor Rogers will counter for Miami. He's been terrific at home this season, recording a 2.45 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. Better still, he has posted a 2.20 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 10 nighttime starts this season. I also like the fact that Rogers will be making his third straight start on at least five days' rest. The Miami bullpen has posted a collective 2.88 ERA and 1.08 WHIP at home this season with eight converted saves and four blown. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
07-05-21 | Cardinals v. Giants -175 | 5-3 | Loss | -175 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco 'first five innings' over St. Louis at 6:05 pm et on Monday. We won with the first five innings 'under' in the Giants 5-2 win in Arizona last night. Here, I'll switch gears and back the Giants on the first five innings moneyline as they return home to host the Cardinals. Kwang-Hyun Kim will get the nod for the Cards. He's in a bit of a tough spot here as he makes his fourth consecutive start on four days' rest. He hasn't been missing many bats lately, recording an 8:5 strikeout-to-walk ratio while allowing 13 hits in 13 1/3 innings of work over his last three outings. Kim checks in sporting a 4.44 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in six road starts this season. By playing the first five innings only we should avoid a Cards bullpen that has actually been at its best in day games this season, posting a collective 3.68 ERA and 1.30 WHIP while converting 10 saves and blowing only two. The Giants will turn to their ace Kevin Gausman to build off last night's solid outing from Anthony DeSclafani. Gausman has been lights out here at home this season, posting a 2.31 ERA and 0.57 WHIP in five starts. Better still, he has recorded a sparkling 1.41 ERA and 0.69 WHIP in eight daytime starts this season. On top of that, Gausman will be making his third consecutive start on five days' rest. While Gausman has struggled in a couple of previous starts against the Cardinals, they have little bearing on this contest as he's faced them just once since 2014 and that outing came over four years ago in 2017. Take San Francisco first five innings (10*). | |||||||
07-04-21 | Giants v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9 | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between San Francisco and Arizona at 9:10 pm et on Sunday. | |||||||
07-04-21 | Dream v. Aces OVER 171.5 | 95-118 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Las Vegas at 6 pm et on Sunday. The Aces are coming off an uncharacteristically-poor offensive performance against Los Angeles two nights ago as they scored just 66 points on 37.7% shooting. I don't expect it to turn into a slump, however, as the Aces return home where they average an impressive 94.9 points per game on 49.5% shooting this season. Atlanta meanwhile nearly staged a massive upset on the road against Seattle last time out, dropping a narrow 91-88 decision. The Dream have actually been a better offensive team on the road compared to at home this season, averaging 3.4 points per game above their season average. The problem is, they've allowed just shy of 89 points per contest on 46.7% shooting away from home. I have the Aces approaching the 100-point mark in this one which means we shouldn't need a peak performance from the Dream offensively to help this one 'over' the reasonable total. Take the over (9*). | |||||||
07-04-21 | Dream v. Aces -15.5 | 95-118 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Las Vegas minus the points over Atlanta at 6 pm et on Sunday. This is a prime bounce-back spot for the Aces offensively after they were held to just 66 points on sub-38% shooting in the second of back-to-back games against the Sparks last time out. Note that Las Vegas averages a whopping 94.9 points per game on 49.5% shooting at home this season and should feast on a below-average Dream defense here. Atlanta comes in with some confidence following a narrow 91-88 loss on the road against the defending champion Seattle Storm last time out. The Dream have now won consecutive games ATS after going 2-5 ATS over their previous seven contests. I don't believe that's a sustainable trend and they're certainly in line for some regression after committing just 17 turnovers over their last two games (they turned the ball over 50 times in their previous five contests). The last time we saw the Dream shoot better than 47% from the field they followed up that performance with a 23-point loss at home against the New York Liberty. They're facing a tougher test here and I expect the Aces to ultimately win this one going away. Take Las Vegas (9*). | |||||||
07-04-21 | Cardinals v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
National League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and Colorado at 3:10 pm et on Sunday. We saw a low-scoring affair between these two teams last night as the Rockies prevailed by a 3-2 score. Here, I look for a different story to unfold. Carlos Martinez will take the ball for the Cardinals. He has of course struggled at the best of times this season and here will be making his third straight start on just four days' rest. Martinez owns a 7.08 ERA and 1.38 WHIP on the road this season. The Rockies have certainly had his number over the years, most recently scoring seven earned runs in 9 2/3 innings against him in two starts going back to the 2018 season. With Martinez averaging just 5.1 innings per start on the road this season we should see plenty of the Cardinals bullpen here. While St. Louis' relief corps hasn't been awful, it has posted a less than impressive 4.33 ERA and 1.44 WHIP with eight saves converted and five blown on the road this season. My concern is that St. Louis hasn't had an off day since June 21st so we're talking about an overworked 'pen. German Marquez will start on four days' rest for the Rockies after tossing a complete game shutout against the Pirates last time out. He's actually pitched well overall this season but hasn't been at his best in daytime starts, posting a 5.22 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in eight outings. In those eight starts he has lasted just 5.2 innings on average. That opens the door for an awful Rockies bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a collective 5.43 ERA and 1.49 WHIP with just nine saves converted compared to 10 blown here at home this season. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
07-04-21 | Twins v. Royals OVER 10 | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Kansas City at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. This is an absolute smash spot for the Twins offense but I also expect the Royals to do their part to help this one 'over' the total. Kenta Maeda will take the ball for Minnesota. He just can't seem to get it right this season having posted a 6.49 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in nine road starts with the 'over' cashing in six of those games. Here, he'll be starting on four days' rest for just the second time this season. The last time he did, he allowed five runs, three of them earned, and lasted just four innings in a 7-6 loss to the A's on May 16th. Maeda averages less than five innings per start so we'll likely see plenty of the Twins bullpen which owns a 4.94 ERA and 1.38 WHIP on the road this season. Brad Keller will counter for Kansas City. We won with the first five innings 'over' in his most recent start in Boston. He'll be pitching on just four days' rest, inexplicably for the eight consecutive outing on Sunday afternoon. Things haven't been going well for Keller as he has posted a 7.97 ERA and 1.74 WHIP in eight home starts with the 'over' cashing in five of those games. In nine daytime starts that WHIP rises to 1.97. The Twins will be getting their fourth look at Keller this season having already scored seven earned runs off of him in 14 1/3 innings. Keller averages just 4.4 innings per start here at home so an overworked Royals bullpen is likely to see plenty of action again today. Note that Kansas City hasn't had an off day since June 21st. The Royals 'pen owns a collective 4.16 ERA and 1.37 WHIP with just seven saves converted compared to eight blown against division opponents this season (entering yesterday's action). Take the over (10*). | |||||||
07-04-21 | Brewers v. Pirates UNDER 8 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Pittsburgh at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. The Brewers are absolutely rolling right now, riding an 11-game winning streak after yesterday's 11-2 victory. This isn't an ideal spot on getaway day against a left-handed starter, noting that they average just 3.6 runs per game against southpaw starters this season. I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair. Freddy Peralta will take the ball for Milwaukee. He has posted a 2.86 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in seven road starts this season. Better still, he owns a 2.63 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in seven daytime starts. Behind Peralta is a solid Brewers bullpen that has posted a collective 3.42 ERA and 1.29 WHIP on the road this season. Tyler Anderson will counter for Pittsburgh. He certainly hasn't been great this season but has pitched better at home, where he has recorded a 3.83 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, averaging around 5 2/3 innings per start here at PNC Park. Behind Anderson is a Pirates bullpen that has posted a 3.40 ERA and 1.27 WHIP with five saves converted and only two blown at home this season. Take the under (9*). | |||||||
07-03-21 | Lynx v. Mercury UNDER 163 | 99-68 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Phoenix at 10 pm et on Saturday. As this is a travel day, I'll keep my analysis relatively short for this play. We saw a relatively low-scoring affair between these same two teams on Wednesday and I don't expect to see a much different result in Saturday's rematch. Minnesota got a big performance from Kayla McBride in that game but those type of shooting efforts have been few and far between from her since joining the Lynx in the offseason. Phoenix is a quality defensive team and after allowing Minnesota to shoot 51% from the field last time out I expect it to make the necessary adjustments here. Diana Taurasi's return has given the Mercury a bit of a boost offensively but this is a team that still hasn't really lived up to expectations this season. They were held to 46% shooting against the Lynx on Wednesday, including just 32 points in the second half. I'm not anticipating a great deal of improvement offensively as familiarity tends to lend itself to lower-scoring basketball more often than not. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
07-03-21 | Bucks v. Hawks -2.5 | Top | 118-107 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Milwaukee at 8:35 pm et on Saturday. We won with the Bucks in Game 5 of this series two nights ago but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Hawks as the series shifts back to Atlanta on Saturday night. The Bucks are of course expected to be without Giannis Antetokounmpo once again on Saturday night. While there's a better chance that Trae Young is able to play for the Hawks, that's certainly no guarantee. Regardless whether he plays or not, I expect to see the Hawks bounce back with one of their best efforts of the series off of Thursday's lopsided loss. Note that the Bucks are just 4-13 ATS after winning three of their last four games ATS this season, outscored by an average margin of 4.0 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Hawks have gone 12-3 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less this season, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 8.5 points in that situation. After allowing Milwaukee to shoot better than 50% from the field in Game 5 we can expect Atlanta to make the necessary defensive adjustments here, noting that it has been a considerably better defensive team at home compared to on the road this season, allowing 2.5 points per game less than its season-average while holding the opposition to under 45% shooting. Take Atlanta (10*). | |||||||
07-03-21 | Bucks v. Hawks UNDER 216.5 | 118-107 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Atlanta at 8:35 pm et on Saturday. These two teams were involved in a high-scoring Game 5 on Thursday night, ending a streak of three straight 'under' results in the series. I'm not anticipating another track meet here, however, as the Hawks return home to face elimination on Saturday night. We can expect Atlanta to make the necessary adjustments after a poor defensive showing on Thursday, as it allowed Milwaukee to shoot better than 50% from the field. Giannis isn't expected back for the Bucks and while Trae Young may or may not be able to return for the Hawks, I like this play regardless. Note that the 'under' has gone 29-16 with the Bucks playing on the road off an 'over' result over the last two seasons. Meanwhile, the 'under' has cashed at a 17-7 clip with the Hawks playing the role of home favorite this season. Off Thursday's relatively lopsided game, I'm expecting a more tightly-contested affair here on Saturday and I believe that lends itself to a lower-scoring result, noting that Bucks playoff games have averaged just 212.8 total points while Hawks postseason games have resulted in an average total of 213.4 points. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
07-03-21 | Dodgers v. Nationals UNDER 9 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
MLB on FOX Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Washington at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. We saw a high-scoring affair between these two teams last night as the Dodgers prevailed by a 10-5 score. I'm expecting a different story to unfold on Saturday, however. Clayton Kershaw gets the nod for Los Angeles. He's off to a terrific start this season having posted a 3.86 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in eight road starts. Better still, he owns a 2.88 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in 11 nighttime outings. The Nationals have never really been able to figure the veteran left-hander out. He already tossed six shutout innings against them earlier this season. Behind Kershaw is a Dodgers bullpen that has recorded a collective 3.13 ERA and 1.19 WHIP at night this season. Paolo Espino will counter for Washington. He's been sharp in his last two spot starts and will be facing the Dodgers for the first time in his career on Saturday. With Espino averaging less than five innings per start we're likely to see plenty from the Nats' bullpen and that's not a bad thing. They've posted a collective 3.06 ERA and 1.09 WHIP with 12 saves converted and only three blown at home this season. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
07-03-21 | England -220 v. Ukraine | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on England over Ukraine at 3 pm et on Saturday. This is a match that England should handle without much trouble as long as it can avoid an emotional letdown off its massive 2-0 victory over Germany last time out. I don't anticipate that being a problem for the Three Lions here as they draw a favorable matchup against Ukraine. Give credit to Ukraine for getting to this point, although it has certainly been fortunate in doing so, most recently prevailing in extra time after Sweden was given a red card and forced to play defensively down a man. If you've followed my plays regularly you know that I'm high on the likes of Zinchenko, Yaremchuk and Yarmolenko for the Ukrainian side. However, I like the way England matches up against that trio, proving that it can play stout defense throughout this tournament, giving up little in the way of high-danger chances. The question has been whether anyone can rise to the occasion to score those much-needed timely goals for England and against England the answer was a resounding yes. Look for it to carry on with the positive momentum as it cruises past Ukraine here. Take England (9*). | |||||||
07-03-21 | Denmark v. Czech Republic +0.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -125 | 5 h 43 m | Show |
Euro Quarter-Final Game of the Year. My selection is on Czech Republic +0.5 goals over Denmark at 12 noon et on Saturday. It's time for teams to starting taking this Czech Republic side seriously after it dispatched the Netherlands in a convincing 2-0 victory last Sunday. The Czechs have done nothing but impress in this tournament and I don't expect to see them wilt under the pressure against the favored Danes on Saturday. Note that Denmark has rode a wave of positive momentum in this tournament ever since a stunning loss to Finland that was marred by Christian Eriksen's cardiac-arrest on the field in mid-match. I give the Danish side all the credit for their incredible run but now they've been sitting idle since breezing past Wales 4-0 last Saturday and I simply feel they're going to have their hands full with a cagey Czech squad. Patrik Schick has arguably been the breakout star of this tournament and he'll be called on once again to lead the Czechs to victory here. Note that they're expected to have key defender Jan Boril back from suspension for this match as well and they'll need all hands on deck given Denmark's ability to find the back of the net, scoring eight times in its last two contests. There's a certain confidence and swagger that the Czech's have displayed in this tournament and I believe it carries them to at least a level result after 90 minutes against Denmark on Saturday. Take Czech Republic +0.5 goals (10*). | |||||||
07-02-21 | Orioles v. Angels -170 | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles first five innings over Baltimore at 9:35 pm et on Friday. The Orioles are coming off a surprising sweep of the Astros in Houston but prior to that they had only won once in their last nine games so it's not as if continued success is expected here in Anaheim. We'll fade the O's but in the first five innings only on Friday night. Left-hander Keegan Akin gets another turn in the rotation for the O's. He's been hit hard, recording an 8.68 ERA and 1.82 WHIP in four road starts. There's little reason to anticipate a turnaround here with the Angels a much better offensive club at home, and also against southpaw pitching (they average 5.7 runs per game against LH pitching). Griffin Canning will counter for Los Angeles. While his overall numbers aren't great, he has been respectable at night, posting a 3.38 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in seven starts with the Angels winning four of those games. Note that Canning enters this start on six days' rest. The last time he did that he gave up just two earned runs over five innings in Oakland on June 16th. By playing the first five innings only we'll avoid an Angels bullpen that has recorded a collective 4.90 ERA and 1.47 WHIP with only eight saves converted compared to six blown here at home this season. With Canning averaging less than five innings per start my concern is that we would likely see plenty of that poor Halos bullpen. Take Los Angeles first five innings (10*). | |||||||
07-02-21 | Lightning v. Canadiens OVER 5 | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Montreal at 8:05 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'over' in Game 1 and the 'under' in Game 2 of this series and here, I'll go back to the well with the 'over' as the scene shifts to Montreal for Game 3. Tampa Bay is obviously rolling offensively right now. While the Lightning haven't been quite as explosive offensively on the road this season, they still average just a shade under 3.0 goals per game. I would expect them to at the very least approach that number again here with the Habs showing no considerable difference in their ability to keep the puck out of their own net at home compared to on the road. Where I do expect a shift from the Habs is at the offensive end of the rink. As long as Montreal continues to pour on the pressure, it should only be a matter of time before it breaks through. Note that the Habs fired 43 shots on Lightning goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy in Game 2 but only managed a single goal. They've averaged three goals per game over their last six home games here in these playoffs. Note that Tampa Bay averages 3.6 goals per game with those contests totaling 6.0 goals on average after an 'under' result over the last two seasons. Meanwhile, Montreal averages 3.0 goals per game after scoring one goal or less in its previous game this season. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
07-02-21 | Twins v. Royals OVER 10 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
A.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Twins have seen the 'over' cash in five straight and seven of their last eight games overall and I expect that streak to continue on Friday night. J.A. Happ will take the ball for Minnesota. He'll be starting on just four days' rest and has struggled at the best of times on the road this season, posting a 7.98 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in six road starts with the 'over' cashing in five of those games. The Royals will be getting their third look at the left-hander this season having already scored seven earned runs in just 10 innings against him. Behind Happ is a Twins bullpen that owns a 5.64 ERA and 1.44 WHIP with just seven saves converted and five blown in night games this season. Brady Singer will counter for Kansas City. He'll be making his third straight start on four days' rest and owns a 5.02 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in eight nighttime starts this season. The Twins have only scored three earned runs in 7 2/3 innings against him this season but in five career starts against Minnesota, Singer owns a 4.83 ERA and 1.66 WHIP. With Singer averaging less than five innings per start we're likely to see plenty of a Royals bullpen that hasn't had a day off since June 21st and has struggled to the tune of a 4.49 ERA and 1.41 WHIP with nine saves converted and seven blown at night this season. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
07-02-21 | Sky v. Wings UNDER 165.5 | Top | 91-100 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
WNBA Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Dallas at 8 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'over' in this same matchup two nights ago but I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'under' as we deal with a higher opening total in Friday's rematch. Chicago shot better than 47% from the field in Wednesday's victory. I'm confident we'll see Dallas make the necessary defensive adjustments here, noting that it had held four straight opponents to 43.7% shooting or worse prior to that contest. Offensively, we've seen Dallas score more than 80 points in three straight games but I believe that streak could be in jeopardy here. The Wings have actually shot just 41.3% as a team at home this season. They're not getting the same offensive production from the secondary scorers such as Marina Mabrey and Satou Sabally right now. As I noted in Wednesday's analysis, the Sky are one of the league's best defensive teams, limiting opponents to 74.1 points per game on 41% shooting on the road this season. They were in a tough spot on Wednesday but still kept the Wings offense in check for all intents and purposes. Expect an even better effort here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
07-02-21 | Astros v. Indians OVER 9 | 6-3 | Push | 0 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Houston and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Friday. We'll back the 'over' in the first five innings only in this one as I look for both offenses to get going early in this contest. There's not a lot bad I can say about Astros starter Lance McCullers Jr. right now. However, I will point out that he has been laboring a bit in recent starts, only able to last through the sixth inning once in his last four starts. He'll be facing an Indians lineup that has hit better at home, averaging 4.5 runs per game and not all that different of an order than the one he struggled against in a pair of starts here at Progressive Field back in 2017-18 when he was tagged for 12 earned runs in just 9 1/3 innings. Sam Hentges will counter for Cleveland. He'll be starting on just four days' rest which spells trouble considering the last time he did that he gave up six earned runs in just 1 2/3 innings against the Angels. Hentges owns a 5.14 ERA and 2.14 WHIP in a pair of home starts this season. In fact, overall he has recorded a 7.77 ERA and 2.00 WHIP in six starts. You have to wonder how many turns he'll get in the rotation but for now, we'll fade him by playing the 'over' in the first five frames on Friday. Take the first five innings over (10*). | |||||||
07-02-21 | Spain v. Switzerland UNDER 2.5 | 1-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Switzerland and Spain at 12 noon et on Friday. Both of these teams were involved in extremely high-scoring affairs in the knockout stage with Switzerland upsetting France on penalties and Spain getting past Croatia in extra time. Here, I look for a much more cagey affair with goals coming at a premium. High-scoring games aren't generally the norm as these international tournaments progress but that's certainly what we saw in the knockout stage. While Switzerland managed to survive against France thanks to a thrilling comeback, I don't think it wants to put itself in a similar position again here. While Spain hasn't always looked its best in this tournament, or in recent months for that matter, it certainly has exceptional talent as we saw against Croatia. I don't think we'll see the Swiss look to open things up too much at the risk of getting exposed at its own end of the pitch or in transition. Prior to its 5-3 win over Croatia, Spain had conceded just one goal in its first three matches in this tournament. In fact, it had given up just one goal in its last five matches combined going back to a pair of friendlies leading up to the tournament. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
07-01-21 | Giants -143 v. Diamondbacks | 3-5 | Loss | -143 | 14 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco over Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Thursday. The Giants could certainly be in for a letdown after a two-game series against the rival Dodgers in Los Angeles but that sort of situation isn't nearly as prevalent in MLB action. Mired in a rare three-game losing streak, I look for San Francisco to break out of its slump on Thursday. Johnny Cueto will take the ball for the Giants. He brings reasonably solid form to the table having posted a 3.44 ERA and 1.31 WHIP over his last three starts. He has struggled on the road this season but has pitched better at night, recording a 3.86 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in five starts with the Giants winning four of those. Cueto has certainly held his own against the D'Backs over the course of his career. In fact, his teams have won six of his last seven starts against them with the lone loss coming in a game where Cueto tossed seven shutout innings. Behind Cueto is a Giants bullpen that has posted a 3.62 ERA and 1.18 WHIP on the road this season. Merrill Kelly will counter for Arizona. He'll be making his fourth straight start on four days' rest. While he has pitched well lately, it's worth noting that he has recorded a 4.40 ERA and 1.26 WHIP at night this season with Arizona winning just five of his 13 starts. With Kelly averaging just 5 2/3 innings per start we'll likely see plenty from a D'Backs bullpen that owns a 5.27 ERA and 1.52 WHIP with only three converted saves and four blown at home this season. Kelly will be making his third start against the Giants this season. In their last look at him, the Giants scored four earned runs and chased Kelly after just three innings on June 16th. Take San Francisco (10*). | |||||||
07-01-21 | Hawks v. Bucks -2 | 112-123 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Atlanta at 8:35 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Hawks in Game 4 of this series on Tuesday but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Bucks, even with Giannis likely sidelined on Thursday night. Milwaukee allowed Atlanta to shoot 50.6% from the field in a game that was never really close on Tuesday. The Bucks do have a terrific track record of bouncing back from performances like that, however, noting that the only other time they allowed an opponent to shoot better than 50% from the field in these playoffs, they responded with a gritty 86-83 road win over the Nets last round. In fact, they're 7-2 SU the last nine times they've come off a game in which they allowed the opposition to shoot better than 50%. The Hawks are hoping to have Trae Young back in the lineup on Thursday but regardless whether he plays, I still expect Milwaukee to rise to the occasion. Young's absence seemed to have a galvanizing effect on the Hawks in Game 4 but now we could very well see a letdown. Note that the Bucks have gone 39-24 ATS off an outright upset loss as a favorite over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 9.7 points. Giannis' absence certainly doesn't help their cause here, but we've seen Khris Middleton step up previously in this series and I expect him to relish taking a starring role on Thursday as well. Take Milwaukee (10*). | |||||||
07-01-21 | Padres v. Reds UNDER 9 | 4-5 | Push | 0 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between San Diego and Cincinnati at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. | |||||||
07-01-21 | Rangers v. A's -174 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -174 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
MLB A.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on Oakland over Texas at 3:35 pm et on Thursday. We won with the A's last night and I won't hesitate to come right back with them again in Thursday's series finale against the Rangers. Dane Dunning gets the nod for Texas. He's been a completely different pitcher on the road compared to at home this season, posting a 7.45 ERA and 1.86 WHIP with the Rangers losing all seven of his starts to date. He hasn't been much better in day games, recording a 5.14 ERA and 1.79 WHIP in five outings. With Dunning averaging less than five innings per start this season we're likely to see plenty of the Rangers bullpen which has struggled on the road, entering last night's action sporting a 5.66 ERA and 1.55 WHIP with just six saves converted and four blown. Sean Manaea will counter for Oakland. He owns a 2.82 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in nine home starts this season with the A's winning eight of those. He brings excellent form into this start having recorded a 2.12 ERA and 1.24 WHIP over his last three outings. The Rangers have never really been able to figure Manaea out as he has allowed two earned runs or less in seven of his last eight starts against them going back to August of 2017. While the A's bullpen's overall numbers haven't been all that great this season they have been slightly better in day games and do check in having converted 12 saves while blowing only two here at home (entering last night's action). Take Oakland (10*). | |||||||
07-01-21 | Mariners v. Blue Jays UNDER 9.5 | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and Toronto at 1:05 pm et on Thursday. The totals are beginning to be shaded much higher for games played in Buffalo and I believe the number will prove too high on Thursday afternoon. Yusei Kikuchi will take the ball for Seattle. He's been terrific on the road this season, posting a 2.70 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in eight starts. Better still, he owns a 1.87 ERA and 0.77 WHIP in five daytime starts. Also note that the Jays have faced him just once, that coming back in 2019 when he tossed a complete game shutout. Behind Kikuchi is a Mariners bullpen that has been better in day games this season, recording a collective 4.06 ERA and 1.27 WHIP with 10 converted saves and only five blown. Hyun-Jin Ryu hasn't been his Cy Young-contending self for much of the season but that doesn't mean he hasn't pitched well. Ryu checks in with a 3.49 ERA and 1.19 WHIP at home (games split between Dunedin and Buffalo). Like Kikuchi, he's been better in day games, recording a 3.27 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. He'll have the advantage of having never faced the Mariners. The Blue Jays bullpen owns a collective 3.42 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in day games this season, recording eight saves while blowing three. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
06-30-21 | Rangers v. A's -191 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 24 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oakland over Texas at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday. While we're being asked to lay a fairly steep price with the A's here, I believe it could be even higher. This one sets up well for Oakland as it looks to take the middle game of this three-game set. Kolby Allard will take the ball for Texas. He's pitched well in five starts this season but there's no question the A's have him figured out. Oakland has faced Allard three times since last August, scoring 11 earned runs on 14 hits while walking six times and striking out only eight in 12 1/3 innings. The A's just faced Allard on June 24th and he didn't miss many bats in that one, allowing eight hits and striking out only one over six innings. Behind Allard is a Texas bullpen that just hasn't been the same on the road this season, posting a collective 5.62 ERA and 1.54 WHIP (entering last night's action) with just five saves converted and four blown. Chris Bassitt will counter for Oakland. He was a Cy Young contender during last year's Covid-shortened season and while he's not going to find himself in that category again this year, he has certainly pitched well, recording a 2.93 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in seven home starts. He brings excellent form into this outing having given up two earned runs or less in four straight starts and will be pitching on five days' rest on Wednesday. Unlike Allard against the A's, Bassitt has held his own against the Rangers, giving up just two earned runs in 13 innings against them going back to last September. While the A's bullpen doesn't own terrific numbers across the board, they do know how to close out a game, having converted 12 saves compared to just two blown here at home this season (entering last night's action). Take Oakland (9*). | |||||||
06-30-21 | Rangers v. A's OVER 8 | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Texas and Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday. I think we're in for a high-scoring affair between these two A.L. West rivals on Wednesday night in Oakland. Kolby Allard will get the start for the Rangers. He has struggled mightily in three career starts against the A's going back to last August, allowing 11 earned runs in 12 1/3 innings of work. In his last two outings against Oakland, Allard managed to record just two strikeouts while giving up 13 hits in only seven innings. With Allard averaging just a shade over five innings per start this season we should see plenty of the Rangers bullpen which has had a tough time on the road, posting a collective 5.62 ERA and 1.54 WHIP with just five saves converted and four blown. Chris Bassitt will counter for the A's. While he has pitched well we could see some regression from the right-hander here, noting that the Rangers have managed just two earned runs in 13 innings in their last two looks at him but have collected 13 hits and five walks. Bassitt will be making his fifth start since June 8th so he's had a pretty heavy workload this month. The A's bullpen has been effective in converting saves here at home but have only managed to record a collective 4.43 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. Against division foes this season they've posted a 5.28 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
06-30-21 | Suns -1 v. Clippers | Top | 130-103 | Win | 100 | 24 h 37 m | Show |
NBA Conference Finals Elimination Game of the Year. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Los Angeles at 9 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the Suns in Game 4 of this series last Saturday before switching gears to cash the first half 'over' in Game 5 on Monday. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with Phoenix as it looks to wrap up this series and advance to its first NBA Finals since 1993. Paul George went into 'superstar mode' for the Clippers in Game 5, shooting a blistering 15-for-20 from the field and pouring in 41 points as Los Angeles staved off elimination with an 'upset' win in Phoenix. If you follow my plays regularly you know that I like to fade teams after they have a player 'go off' in their previous contest. Lost in George's monster performance was the fact that Devin Booker also got on track with a 31-point effort - the first time he eclipsed the 30-point mark since scoring 41 in Game 1 against the Clips. Note that the Suns check in an incredible 11-2 ATS when revenging a double-digit loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 13.4 points. They've gone 23-9 ATS when coming off an ATS loss this season, outscoring opponents by 7.8 points on average. Phoenix has shot 45.2% or worse in three consecutive games - its longest such streak this season. It did shoot 45.7% or worse in three straight games back in round one against the Lakers. In their next game, the Suns shot better than 50% from the field and won by a 113-100 score right here at Staples Center. A similar scoreline would be well within the realm of possibility on Wednesday. Take Phoenix (10*). | |||||||
06-30-21 | Canadiens v. Lightning UNDER 5 | 1-3 | Win | 103 | 13 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Montreal and Tampa Bay at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the Lightning and the 'over' in Game 1 of this series on Monday night but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' in Game 2 on Wednesday. The Canadiens got a bit of a wake-up call in the series-opener as they had yet to face a team as good as the Lightning all season. Not surprisingly, they were badly outplayed in a 5-1 loss. I do expect them to make the necessary adjustments and do a better job of defending the Bolts here, noting that the Habs have still allowed just 2.3 goals per game in the playoffs. Note that the 'under' has gone 15-5 with the Habs revenging a loss by two goals or more against an opponent this season with those contests totaling an average of just 4.9 goals. While the Lightning are certainly known for their offense, they can keep the puck out of their own net as well, giving up just 2.2 goals per game on home ice this season. They've been even better in that regard in the playoffs, allowing only 2.0 goals per contest. The 'under' is 14-5 with the Bolts coming off a home win by two goals or more this season with those games totaling an average of just 4.8 goals. We've also seen the 'under' go 14-6 when Tampa Bay is leading a playoff series over the last two seasons. Tampa can't expect things to come as easy as they did in Game 1. In these playoffs, we've already seen the Lightning score six goals in a game against the Panthers and then just one in the next, six goals against the Hurricanes and then two in the next, and eight goals in a rout of the Islanders and then two in the next. It's important not to get too carried away by what we saw in the previous contest. Expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
06-30-21 | Sky v. Wings OVER 163 | 91-81 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Dallas at 8 pm et on Wednesday. Both of these teams enter this game riding three-game 'under' streaks. I don't think that trend is sustainable, however. Chicago is coming off a miserable 58-point performance in a blowout loss to Connecticut last time out. Candace Parker is certainly in line for a strong bounce-back performance here after shooting 3-of-11 for six points in that most recent contest. In general, I expect the Sky to rebound offensively here noting that prior to that last game they had scored 91 points or more in three straight contests. Dallas isn't exactly a defensive powerhouse - it actually allows 1.9 points per game more than its season average when playing at home this season. The Wings have posted consecutive wins, scoring 89 and 85 points in the process with Arike Ogunbowale bouncing back following a mini shooting slump. She poured in 30 points last time out and should pick up where she left off here. Chicago does check in as one of the league's better defensive teams but the Wings are terrific offensively here at home, averaging just shy of 86 points per contest. In fact, Dallas home games have averaged 168 total points this season. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
06-30-21 | Diamondbacks v. Cardinals -205 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis over Arizona at 1:15 pm et on Wednesday. The Cardinals have taken the first two games in this series and I look for them to complete the sweep on Wednesday afternoon. Riley Smith will take the ball for the D'Backs. He'll be making his first start since the middle of May after laboring through his first five outings this season. Smith owns a 7.36 ERA and 1.68 WHIP and averages just 4.4 innings per start. That spells trouble here as the D'Backs bullpen has been awful, sporting a collective 5.63 ERA and 1.55 WHIP with just three saves converted and eight blown on the road this season (entering last night's action). Kwang-Hyun Kim will counter for St. Louis. While I'm not particularly high on him right now he has held his own here at home this season, recording a 3.54 ERA and 1.25 WHIP with the Cards coming away victorious in four of his six starts. The St. Louis bullpen entered last night's game having converted 14 saves with just one blown at home this season, posting a collective 3.90 ERA and 1.33 WHIP along the way. Take St. Louis (9*). | |||||||
06-30-21 | Diamondbacks v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and St. Louis at 1:15 pm et on Wednesday. The first two games in this series have stayed 'under' the total but I'm expecting a different story to unfold on Wednesday. Riley Smith gets his first start since mid-May for the D'Backs. He's been awful this season, recording a 7.36 ERA and 1.68 WHIP with the 'over' cashing in four of his five starts. The fact that he averages just 4.4 innings per start is concerning given the Snakes bullpen has been awful, entering last night's action sporting a 5.63 ERA and 1.55 WHIP with only three saves converted and eight blown on the road this season. Kwang-Hyun Kim will be making his third consecutive start on four days' rest and checks in sporting a 4.43 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in day games this season (the 'over' has cashed in four of his five daytime starts). Like Smith, Kim doesn't work deep into games, averaging just 4.5 innings per start and it's worth noting that the Cards haven't had a day off since June 21st so their 'pen has been extended. Take the over (9*). | |||||||
06-29-21 | Giants +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -164 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
MLB N.L. First Five Innings Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco +0.5 runs first five innings over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Dodgers got past the Giants by a 3-2 score last night. I like San Francisco to get off to a positive start on Tuesday, however, as I fully expect it to at the very least stay level with the Dodgers through the first five innings. Kevin Gausman remains one of the most underrated and underappreciated starters in baseball this season. He checks in sporting an incredible 1.02 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in 10 road starts. Here, he'll be pitching on five days' rest for the third consecutive start. While he will be facing the Dodgers for the second time this season, it's worth noting that he has allowed a grand total of just four earned runs in 26 innings of work when facing a team for a second (or third) time this season. By playing the first five innings only we'll avoid a Giants bullpen that while solid, has managed to blow 11 saves on the road this season. Walker Buehler will counter for Los Angeles. There's really not a lot negative that can be said of the Dodgers ace (that title is of course debatable given how well Clayton Kershaw has pitched). However, he did labor through his most recent start, allowing three earned runs on five hits, including two home runs, while also issuing a pair of walks over six innings in his most recent start against the Cubs - a 4-0 Dodgers loss. Here, he'll be pitching on just four days' rest. The Giants will be facing Buehler for the third time this season. Take San Francisco +0.5 runs first five innings (10*). | |||||||
06-29-21 | Bucks v. Hawks +7 | Top | 88-110 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Milwaukee at 8:35 pm et on Tuesday. We'll fade the Bucks on Tuesday coming off Khris Middleton's 38-point explosion in Game 3 (we won with the 'under' in that game). The Hawks are of course dealing with an injury to Trae Young, who may or may not be able to play due to a bruised foot suffered on Sunday. Whether he can go or not, I still like Atlanta in this spot as we're being given a generous helping of points with the home side, noting that the Hawks have already defeated the Bucks by seven as a six-point home underdog without Young in the lineup back in late April. Milwaukee has shot better than 51% in consecutive games - the first time it has accomplished that feat since May 13th and 15th. On that occasion, they followed up those two games with a 118-112 loss in Chicago as a 7.5-point favorite, shooting just 42.2% from the field in that loss. Note that the Bucks check in a miserable 4-12 ATS after winning three of their last four games ATS this season, outscored by an average margin of 3.0 points in that situation. They're also 8-22 ATS after winning six or seven of their last eight games overall this season, as is the case here, only managing to outscore opponents by an average margin of 3.9 points in that spot. The Hawks are 15-5 ATS playing at home off a double-digit home loss over the last three seasons and 28-15 ATS when at home off an ATS loss over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 2.3 points on average in the latter situation. Finally, in 10 games played at home after two or more consecutive ATS losses this season, the Hawks have managed to outscore opponents by an average margin of 6.3 points. Take Atlanta (10*). | |||||||
06-29-21 | Bucks v. Hawks OVER 218.5 | 88-110 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Atlanta at 8:35 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'under' in Game 3 of this series on Sunday night. In fact, we've won with the 'under' in each of the last two games. Here, I look for a different story to unfold in Game 4. We're being given a discounted total here due in large part to Hawks superstar Trae Young's status being up in the air after he bruised his foot in Sunday's loss. I would expect Young to play in this game but even if he doesn't, I still expect to see a relatively high-scoring affair. I've noted before that the Bucks have been a solid 'over' bet when coming off a win this season. Better still, off two or more consecutive victories, Milwaukee has posted a 23-12 o/u mark this season with those contests averaging 237.1 total points. Also note that the 'over' is 15-5 with the Hawks playing at home after a double-digit home loss over the last three seasons, as is the case here, with those games reaching an average total of 237.0 points. Keep in mind, the Bucks are allowing nearly two points per game higher than their season average points allowed when playing on the road this season. With the 'under' having gone a combined 19-9-1 in all Bucks and Hawks playoff games, it's not a surprise that the totals are starting to get shaded much lower than we're accustomed to seeing. We even saw a closing total as high as 234 points in a game between these two teams back in April. With this being a virtual must-win for the Hawks (few teams come back from a 3-1 series deficit in the NBA Playoffs, especially without home court advantage) I expect them to throw everything they've got at Milwaukee here, which lends itself to a relatively high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
06-29-21 | Royals v. Red Sox OVER 10.5 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
American League First Five Innings Total of the Year. My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Kansas City and Boston at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a relatively high-scoring affair to open this series in the Boston heat last night and I expect for another high-scoring start at least to Tuesday's contest. Brad Keller will take the ball for Kansas City. He'll inexplicably be making his seventh straight start on just four days' rest. The signs of wear are showing as he's been tagged for a whopping 20 earned runs over his last four starts, spanning just 20 1/3 innings of work. Note that he checks in sporting an ugly 6.91 ERA and 1.87 WHIP in 15 nighttime starts this season. Things don't figure to improve against a Red Sox lineup that just saw him on June 18th, scoring five earned runs over five innings against him. Nick Pivetta will counter for Boston. He'll also be pitching on four days' rest after a lights out 6 2/3 innings performance against the Rays last time out. Keep in mind, he owns a 4.57 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in eight home starts this season. The Royals will be getting their second look at Pivetta in as many weeks as well, having scored three earned runs on six hits and three walks over five innings against him back on June 18th. By playing the first five innings only we should avoid factoring in two bullpens that have held up reasonably well. Much like we saw last night, I expect the starters to get roughed up early in this one. Take the first five innings over (10*). | |||||||
06-29-21 | Liberty v. Dream UNDER 170.5 | 69-73 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Atlanta at 7 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a relatively high-scoring affair between these two teams two days ago as New York did most of the scoring in a 101-78 rout. Here, I look for Atlanta to make the necessary defensive adjustments, noting that the Liberty had been held to 78 points or less in five consecutive games prior to that outburst. Atlanta has now seen the 'over' cash in four straight games but I'm not sure that's a sustainable trend. The Dream recently welcomed back starting point guard Chennedy Carter but as we saw on Sunday, she can't do it all. Atlanta isn't an overly deep offensive team, especially with highly-touted rookie Aari McDonald struggling to find her groove at the professional level this season. Interestingly, New York has been a better defensive team on the road than at home this season, allowing 85.9 points per game on 43.1% shooting. The Liberty average less than 80 points per game themselves away from home so again, a repeat of Sunday's 101-point effort is unlikely. The 'over' has cashed in both meetings between these two teams this season. Last year, we saw the 'under' cash in both matchups, including one game that totaled just 118 points. Expect this one to stay 'under' the generous total. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
06-29-21 | Ukraine v. Sweden | Top | 1-1 | Push | 0 | 17 h 42 m | Show |
Euro Knockout Stage Game of the Year. My selection is on Sweden pk (draw no bet) over Ukraine at 3 pm et on Tuesday. We won with Sweden in its most recent match, a 3-2 victory in a wild contest against Poland. Credit the Swedes hanging in there despite Robert Lewandowski's heroics and thanks to the victory they draw a favorable matchup against Ukraine here. Ukraine is certainly fortunate to be here after closing out the group stage with a 1-0 defeat against Austria. While it showed plenty of fight in a narrow 3-2 loss to the Netherlands in its opener and ultimately faced little resistance in a win over North Macedonia, the tournament has generally been a mixed bag for Andriy Shevchenko's squad. That's a stark contrast to the Swedes, who have been rock solid, showing excellent form defensively and just enough attacking prowess to make them a dangerous team moving forward in this tournament. Sweden is now undefeated in its last eight matches and I don't believe Ukraine will be the side to end that run. While I have a lot of respect for Ukraine, particularly for the duo of Zinchenko and Yarmolenko, I look for Sweden to ultimately prevail in what will likely be a low-scoring affair. Take Sweden (10*). | |||||||
06-29-21 | Germany v. England UNDER 2.5 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
Euro Knockout Stage Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between England and Germany at 12 noon et on Tuesday. After yesterday's two thrilling, high-scoring games, most will be quick to go 'over' this low total in Wednesday's first of two knockout stage matchups. I'll go the other way, however, as I envision England having a tough time breaking down Germany, and vice versa. Germany is certainly not without its flaws defensively. It has allowed five goals in three matches in this tournament to date, conceding in all three contests. With that being said, England has shown precious few flashes of brilliance on the attack, generally looking hamstrung in all three tournament matches to date. At its own end of the pitch, the Three Lions have looked well-organized, however, and while Germany offers a stiff challenge, I believe England will be up for it in front of the home faithful at Wembley Stadium on Tuesday. While we've become somewhat accustomed to high-octane, thrill-a-minute matches involving Joachim Low's German side in this tournament, I expect a different story to unfold here as things generally tend to tighten up in the knockout stage (you wouldn't know it by yesterday's results, of course). Take the under (10*). | |||||||
06-28-21 | Clippers v. Suns OVER 214 | 116-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first half 'over' between Los Angeles and Phoenix at 9:05 pm et on Monday. NOTE: I'm recommending a play on the 'first half over' which is currently set at 106 points at the time of writing. While I would like to play the full game 'over' the total in this one off that ridiculously low-scoring Game 4 result on Saturday, I can't quite get there with the possibility that we see the Suns shift into cruise control should they build a sizeable second half lead in this one. In general, it seems that we've seen a trend this round with games starting out fairly high-scoring before petering out down the stretch. We can expect the Suns to come out with an attacking mindset here as they look to wrap up this series and give themselves even more rest heading into the NBA Finals. We certainly haven't seen their best over the last couple of games, particularly from Devin Booker after he broke his nose in Game 2. Back at home, I do expect to see a much better offensive showing from Phoenix, noting that it averages just shy of 59 points per game in the first half here this season. For the Clippers, this could be their last stand and off a miserable 32.5% shooting performance on Saturday we can expect them to bounce back and come out strong here, noting that they hadn't shot worse than 45% from the field since Game 1 against Utah last round and even in that contest they shot a respectable 42.4%. Game 4 marked the first time since back on April 1st that Los Angeles was held to fewer than 100 points in a game. Again, should the Suns build a considerable lead in the second half of this game we could very well see the Kawhi-less Clippers fold the tent and call it a season. With that in mind, we'll call for a relatively high-scoring start as this one gets 'over' the very reasonable first half total. Take the first half over (10*). | |||||||
06-28-21 | Cubs v. Brewers UNDER 7 | Top | 4-14 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
MLB Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Monday. I'm expecting a low-scoring affair as the Cubs and Brewers renew their N.L. Central rivalry on Monday night in Milwaukee. Kyle Hendricks will take the ball for the Cubs. He has turned his season around after a rocky start, working at least six innings in eight straight outings and posting a sparkling 1.00 ERA and 0.67 WHIP over his last three starts. He's been at his best against divisional opponents this season, recording a 3.40 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. While the Brewers have had plenty of looks at Hendricks in recent years, they've never really been able to figure him out. He has allowed just four earned runs in his last five outings against Milwaukee, covering a span of 33 2/3 innings. Behind Hendricks is one of the best bullpens in baseball as the Cubs relief corps has posted a collective 2.88 ERA and 1.23 WHIP on the road this season, blowing only two saves while converting 10. Freddy Peralta will counter for Milwaukee. He's been lights out in seven home starts this season, posting a 1.62 ERA and 0.59 WHIP. In seven nighttime starts he owns a 1.74 ERA and 0.70 WHIP with the 'under' cashing at a 4-2-1 clip. The Cubs have already seen Peralta three times this season but haven't had much success, scoring just three earned runs in 15 innings. The 'under' is 3-1 in his four previous career starts against Chicago. Like the Cubs, the Brewers have a solid bullpen that has been at its best in night games this season, recording a collective 3.47 ERA and 1.21 WHIP with a 10:4 converted save rate. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
06-28-21 | Canadiens v. Lightning -195 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 23 h 55 m | Show |
NHL Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Montreal at 8:05 pm et on Monday. We have a pretty good read on the Lightning right now having just gone 6-0-2 (including free) over the course of their seven-game series against the Islanders. Here, I look for them to get off to a positive start as they begin their quest for a second straight Stanley Cup title against the upstart Canadiens. This is by no means a favorable matchup for the Habs. Tampa Bay has absolutely had Montreal's number over the last few seasons, taking seven of the last eight meetings in this series. This will of course be the first matchup between these two teams this season but I expect the Bolts dominance to continue. Note that the Lightning are an incredible 20-3 when coming off a game where they scored one goal or less over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.1 goals. The Canadiens on the other hand are 11-21 after winning four of their last five contests over the last three seasons, outscored by 0.7 goals on average in that situation. For whatever reason, we saw the Golden Knights absolutely wilt over the course of their series with the Habs. It almost seems as if a lopsided 4-1 win in Game 1 may have been their downfall as they seemed to start reading their own press and believing the series was going to be a cakewalk. I don't envision the Bolts experiencing a similar fate here. Home ice doesn't always mean a great deal in the NHL Playoffs, but it has most definitely meant something to the Bolts this season as they've gone 27-10 here in Tampa, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.3 goals. Here in the playoffs they check in giving up just 2.1 goals per game. The Habs have proven to be the very definition of a 'tough out' and while I certainly don't expect them to get walked all over in this series, I do think they're going to have a very difficult time gaining the upper hand at any point against an ultra-talented and obviously experienced Lightning that has its sights set on another Stanley Cup championship. Take Tampa Bay (10*). | |||||||
06-28-21 | Canadiens v. Lightning OVER 5 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Montreal and Tampa Bay at 8:05 pm et on Monday. You would have to go back to 2015 to find the last time a Stanley Cup Final series-opener finished 'under' five total goals. I don't expect that trend to change on Monday. Note that the 'over' has gone 8-2 with the Lightning coming off consecutive games where they scored two goals or less this season, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 7.3 goals. Following an 'under' result over the last two seasons, Tampa Bay's next game has totaled an average of 6.1 goals. Meanwhile, the Canadiens average 3.1 goals per game when playing on the road off two or more consecutive 'under' results over the last two seasons, as is the case here. Those games have averaged 5.6 total goals. I think there's always a bit of a tendency for teams to 'exhale' after reaching the Stanley Cup Final. Both teams have been involved in a number of tightly-contested low-scoring affairs recently but here I look for things to open up. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
06-28-21 | Spain v. Croatia UNDER 2.5 | 3-3 | Loss | -130 | 14 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Croatia and Spain at 12 noon et on Monday. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring results in their group stage finales with Spain rolling to a 5-0 victory over Slovakia and Croatia pulling out a 3-1 win over Scotland to book its place in the knockout stage. As we've seen so far in the knockout stage, however, goals should become much tougher to come by here. Croatia will be without arguably their top scoring threat in Ivan Perisic following a positive Covid diagnosis. We've seen Croatia revert back into its defensive shell at times during this tournament and that could very well be its best chance at staging an upset against Spain here on Monday. Spain is brimming with talent but it hasn't always come together the way it did against an overmatched Slovakia side last time out. La Roja have actually been held to one goal or less in three of its last five matches overall, including a pair of 0-0 draws against Portugal and Sweden. Spain knows it has the ability to stay well-organized and ultimately prevail in a 1-0 type of contest here. That's essentially the framework that it employed in the first two matches of this tournament before things opened up for it against the Slovaks'. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
06-27-21 | Bucks v. Hawks UNDER 224 | 113-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Atlanta at 8:35 pm et on Sunday. The first two games in this series have been relatively high-scoring although only one of those contests managed to find its way 'over' the total. We won with the 'under' in Game 2 on Friday night and I'll go back to the well with the same play here as the scene shifts to Atlanta on Sunday. The Bucks put up 125 points in Friday's blowout win. The last time we saw them put up that type of offensive performance, their next game easily stayed 'under' the total, reaching only 197 points in Game 3 of round one against Miami. Note that Bucks playoff games are averaging a total of just 212.1 points. Hawks playoff games are averaging just 212.9 total points. Atlanta, like most NBA teams, has been a better defensive team at home this season, where it gives up 108.5 points per game compared to its season average of 110.7 ppg allowed. I don't think they want to get involved in a track meet with Milwaukee here as that would play into the Bucks preferred pace of play. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
06-27-21 | Sparks v. Mercury OVER 155.5 | 79-88 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Phoenix at 6 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'under' the last time these two teams met on June 18th but I believe the total will prove too low this time around, as the scene shifts to Phoenix for Sunday's matchup. The Mercury have actually been idle since that last game in Los Angeles nine days ago. They're expected to have Diana Taurasi back for Sunday's game. While I would usually think it might be tough for a player to get re-acclimated after an extended absence, Taurasi is a veteran that has been through it before and the with the team having had plenty of practice time between games, I look for the Mercury offense to do just fine. The Sparks are dealing with a cluster of key injuries right now but should still enter this game with confidence after scoring 89 points in a win over Washington last time out. Los Angeles is allowing 80.8 points per game on the road this season but the Mercury haven't been any better defensively at home, giving up 81.7 points per game. Note that the 'over' has gone 8-1 with the Sparks having lost four or five of their last six games ATS over the last three seasons, as is the case here, with those contests totaling an average of 168.9 points. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
06-27-21 | Portugal v. Belgium UNDER 2.5 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 30 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Belgium and Portugal at 3 pm et on Sunday. With so much scoring ability on both sides it may seem like a curious decision to back the 'under' in this star-studded knockout stage showdown on Sunday. However, I believe we'll see both teams mirror one another in what is likely a 1-0 or 1-1 outcome after 90 minutes. Belgium has conceded just a single goal in this tournament, that coming in the opening minutes against an emotional Denmark squad that was playing in front of the home faithful in Copenhagen following the stunning events involving Christian Eriksen in its opening match. Apart from that, Belgium has looked rock solid at its back-end and I would expect that to continue against the defending European champions on Sunday. Meanwhile, Portugal's 4-2 loss to Germany is still fresh in the minds of most entering this clash. Of course, Ronaldo and company did redeem themselves somewhat with a 2-2 draw against France to close out the group stage and wrap up an advancing third-place position in their group. I believe Portugal is a better-organized, more stout defensive squad than it has shown in its last two matches and here in the knockout stage against the top-ranked nation in the world, should settle into a slightly more conservative shape. We should see plenty of flashes of brilliance in this match but I believe the oddsmakers have it right setting a relatively low total on Sunday. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
06-27-21 | Nationals v. Marlins UNDER 6.5 | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Miami at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. I'm anticipating another low-scoring game between these two teams on Sunday afternoon as we have a terrific pitching matchup between Max Scherzer and Sandy Alcantara. Scherzer checks in sporting a 2.41 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in seven road starts this season. Better still, he owns a 2.01 ERA and 0.62 WHIP in six daytime starts. He's seemingly gotten stronger with each passing start against the Marlins, most recently holding them to one earned run in a complete game victory back on May 2nd. Behind Scherzer is a Nationals bullpen that has been at its best in day games this season, recording a collective 3.35 ERA and 1.24 WHIP with eight saves converted and only three blown. Sandy Alcantara is quietly having a fine season for the Marlins. He has posted a 2.19 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in eight home starts and a sparkling 0.74 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in five daytime outings. Like Scherzer, he has gotten stronger with each passing start against today's opponent, most recently allowing just one earned run over six innings against Miami last September. The Marlins bullpen has been terrific here at home this season, posting a collective 2.96 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
06-26-21 | Suns -1 v. Clippers | Top | 84-80 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Los Angeles at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. The Suns couldn't have played much worse in Game 3 of this series but perhaps that was to be expected after they grabbed a 2-0 series lead thanks to a thrilling last-second win in Game 2 (we won with the Clippers in Game 3). Here, I look for Phoenix to bounce back in all areas of the game as it looks to grab a 3-1 stranglehold on the series before heading back home. Much has been made of Devin Booker's awful 5-of-21 shooting night and whether it had anything to do with him wearing a protective mask after breaking his nose in Game 2. Regardless whether the mask played a role, I expect him to respond with a big performance on Saturday night. The best generally bounce back and Booker is certainly in that elite category a this stage of his career. For the Suns, Game 3 was also their first game of the series with Chris Paul back in the lineup. I did figure it would take some time for him to get re-acclimated with the offense and that certainly appeared to be the case. Look for a more cohesive effort from the Suns offense here on Saturday. Note that Phoenix has gone 8-1 ATS when revenging a double-digit road loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by 12.9 points on average in that situation. The Suns have been an excellent bounce-back team all season, going 16-7 ATS and outscoring opponents by an average margin of 7.2 points when coming off a loss of any kind. While the Suns did hold Paul George relatively in check in Game 3 (he shot 9-of-26 from the field for 27 points), they'll need to play with a lot more intensity here after George and Ivica Zubac combined to haul in 31 rebounds. Again, it was no real surprise that we saw Phoenix take a breath in Game 3 after they had not only won the first two games in this series, but nine straight overall. The only other time they lost a game by double-digits in these playoffs, they responded with a 100-92 victory right here at Staples Center in Game 4 against the Lakers in round one. Take Phoenix (10*). | |||||||
06-26-21 | Austria v. Italy -185 | 0-0 | Loss | -185 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Italy over Austria at 3 pm et on Saturday. We've won with Italy and also won fading Austria already in this tournament so it's only natural that we go with the Azzurri in Saturday's knockout stage match. While Austria did impress in its 1-0 victory over Ukraine last time out as it went on the attack with far more flair than we had seen in the tournament so far, I'm concerned we'll see it revert back into its shell a bit here as it faces a much more difficult opponent. Keep in mind, two matches back we faded the Austrians as they fell by a 2-0 score against the Netherlands, generating just one shot on target in the entire match. I am certainly high on the duo of David Alaba and Christoph Baumgartner but I question whether they can break down an extremely well-organized Italian side here. Italy's long streak of clean sheets is of course well-documented but it has been its attack that has impressed me most in this tournament. The Azzurri look capable of striking at any moment with the likes of Immobile, Insigne and Chiesa all taking turns in starring roles, with the latter likely a late option off the bench on Saturday. Note that Austria has been held off the scoresheet entirely in four of its last six matches overall, only managing to find the back of the net against North Macedonia and aforementioned Ukraine. Italy has yet to face any resistance in this tournament and I don't believe that will change on Saturday. Take Italy (10*). |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ricky Tran | $756 |
ProSportsPicks | $632 |
Joseph D'Amico | $510 |
Joey Tron | $450 |
Tom Macrina | $399 |
Nick Parsons | $344 |
Sean Murphy | $306 |
Jack Jones | $303 |
William Burns | $233 |
Dan Kaiser | $220 |