Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-21-21 | Canucks v. Blackhawks OVER 6 | 4-1 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Vancouver and Chicago at 8:35 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams enter Thursday's game struggling with the Canucks off consecutive losses and just 1-3 on the season and the Blackhawks yet to pick up a single win through four games. Here, I'm expecting plenty of offensive fireworks. Note that the 'over' is 15-6 with the Blackhawks coming off a a loss by two goals or more over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an average total of 7.0 goals. The 'over' has cashed at an identical 15-6 clip with the Canucks coming off two losses in their last three games over that same stretch, resulting in an average total of 6.9 goals. It's also worth mentioning that the Canucks have had a tendency to 'let go of the rope' on long road trips, having given up a whopping 4.5 goals on average after playing three or more consecutive road games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, with a 15-game sample size. That situation has produced an average total of 6.8 goals. It's been a while since these two teams have met but three of five matchups since the start of 2019 have totaled at least seven goals and going back further, 10 of their last 12 meetings have reached at least six goals. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
10-21-21 | Broncos +3 v. Browns | 14-17 | Push | 0 | 32 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver plus the points over Cleveland at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. The Browns were already going to be in a tough spot on Thursday night, playing on a short week with the pressure ratcheted up following consecutive losses against the Chargers and Cardinals. Now without QB Baker Mayfield, RBs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt among others, I don't expect them to bounce back against the Broncos. Denver hasn't been playing well, fresh off three straight losses albeit against tough opposition in the Ravens, Steelers (on the road) and Raiders. Here, the Broncos have an excellent 'get right' matchup against what should be a very limited Browns offense with journeyman QB Case Keenum at the helm and a defense that hasn't been nearly as stout as advertised. Consider this a breakout spot for the Broncos offense while I have plenty of confidence in Vic Fangio's ability to scheme up a gameplan to shut down Cleveland's struggling and undermanned offense. Note that for all of its recent struggles, Denver still checks in a perfect 7-0 ATS when coming off a loss against a division opponent, outscoring opponents by 2.6 points on average in that spot. Take Denver (8*). | |||||||
10-21-21 | Bucks v. Heat +2.5 | Top | 95-137 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Game of the Week. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. The Heat had a productive preseason, going 5-1 and getting some new faces acclimated into the lineup while also wisely managing the minutes of all of its key contributors. I look for Miami to get the new season off to a positive start against the defending champion Bucks on Thursday. Milwaukee is of course already 1-0 on the season after an impressive win over the Nets on Tuesday. The win didn't come without a price, however, as Jrue Holliday did suffer a heel injury in the game. He is expected to play on Thursday but it's notable as the Bucks are already dealing with a number of banged-up players (Bobby Portis, Rodney Hood and Donte DiVincenzo are all sidelined). Here, we'll back the Heat noting that despite all of their ups and downs in recent years, they have managed to outscore opponents by an average margin of 3.9 points here at home over the last couple of seasons. I expect them to bring plenty of energy to their home-opener on Thursday and I think they have the talent to back it up. Take Miami (10*). | |||||||
10-21-21 | Ducks v. Jets UNDER 5.5 | 1-5 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Anaheim and Winnipeg at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. We're being offered a very reasonable price to back the 'under' in this one, largely due to the fact that the Ducks are coming off a wild 6-5 loss in Edmonton while the Jets have seen their last two contests total seven and nine goals. Note that the 'under' is 10-2 with the Ducks playing on the road after scoring four goals or more in their last game over the last two seasons, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average of only 4.5 total goals. Meanwhile, the Jets have posted a 14-26 o/u record, averaging only 2.5 goals per game with an average total of 5.3 goals after scoring three goals or more in consecutive games over the last 2+ seasons. Interestingly, Winnipeg also averages just 2.4 goals per game when playing at home off an 'over' result over the last 2+ seasons. On a positive note for the Jets, they allow only 2.1 goals per game when coming off a road loss against a division opponent over the same stretch. Take the under (6*). | |||||||
10-21-21 | Braves v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | 2-11 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Los Angeles at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. Much like the ALCS, the 'over' has ruled the NLCS, cashing in each of the last three games. I look for that trend to reverse on Thursday, however, as the Braves send Max Fried to the hill in hopes of closing out this series. Fried has of course been outstanding this season, and particularly in the playoffs, recording a 1.50 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in two postseason starts. He has incredibly worked at least six innings in 14 consecutive starts, allowing more than two earned runs only twice over that stretch. Here, we'll note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 8-0 with Fried taking the hill as an underdog priced between +100 and +150, resulting in an average total of only 4.5 runs. Also note that the 'under' has gone 10-2 with the Braves playing on the road after putting up nine runs or more in their previous contest, with an average total of just 5.5 runs scored. The Dodgers have yet to decide on a starter but we do know this is likely to be a 'bullpen game' for them. Despite trailing in this series, the Dodgers 'pen has held up well recently, recording a collective 3.03 ERA and 0.95 WHIP over their last seven games. Take the under (5*). | |||||||
10-21-21 | Capitals -120 v. Devils | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 30 h 26 m | Show |
NHL Metropolitan Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Washington over New Jersey at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Devils are off to a perfect 2-0 start to the season with wins over the Blackhawks and expansion Kraken. They were dealt a tough blow in Tuesday's victory over Seattle, however, as emerging superstar and former first overall draft pick Jack Hughes appeared to suffer a shoulder injury. It remains to be seen whether he can return on Thursday as of the time of writing. Regardless, I look for New Jersey to fall short in its attempt at a third consecutive victory on Thursday night. Note that the Devils are 0-9 the last nine times they've played at home off consecutive wins, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 2.5 goals in that situation. They're also just 8-23 in their last 29 home games against division opponents, outscored by 0.9 goals on average. As for the Capitals, they've been a solid positive momentum play, averaging 3.5 goals and outscoring opponents by 0.6 goals on average after scoring four or more goals in their last game over the last two-plus seasons, as is the case here off Tuesday's 6-3 win over the Avalanche. The Caps have owned this series in recent years, winning 10 of the last 12 meetings over the last three seasons, including a 5-1 mark here in Newark. Take Washington (10*). | |||||||
10-20-21 | Blues v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
NHL Western Conference Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and Vegas at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Blues are off to a red hot start this season, scoring 12 goals in recording back-to-back road wins over the Avalanche and Coyotes. Meanwhile, the Golden Knights are coming off a 6-2 drubbing at the hands of the Kings in Los Angeles last time out. That sets them up well here, noting that they average 4.1 goals when coming off a road loss by two goals or more over the last 2+ seasons. I do question whether they can keep the Blues offense at bay, however, noting that St. Louis averages 3.4 goals when coming off a win of any kind over the last 2+ seasons and by all accounts has its best offensive team in years here in 2021-22. While the Knights will be missing two of its top goal scorers in Max Pacioretty and Mark Stone, I believe that will allow their depth to shine through in the short-term. Note that Stone's defensive play might be missed even more than his offensive work. This has been a high-scoring series in recent years with nine of the last 11 meetings going 'over' the total. Last year's three meetings that featured the goaltending matchup of Jordan Binnington vs. Robin Lehner (which is expected tonight) totaled nine, six and seven goals. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-20-21 | Celtics v. Knicks -2 | Top | 134-138 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
NBA Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on New York minus the points over Boston at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Knicks made massive progress last season, reaching the playoffs before being dumped unceremoniously at the hands of the Atlanta Hawks. I think we'll see New York play with an even bigger chip on its shoulder this season as it looks to take care of unfinished business. Remember, the Knicks gave the Celtics all they could handle and then some last season, winning two of three meetings including a 30-point rout early in the campaign, in Boston no less. The Celtics were never really able to find their footing last season and while I do expect them to fare better here in 2021-22, a slow start could once again be in the cards. The C's are already dealing with Covid-19 quarantine issues as they'll be without Al Horford for this game while Jaylen Brown isn't certain to play but likely will be able to go. The Knicks of course made a big splash in the offseason by acquiring former Celtic Kemba Walker. Walker is no stranger to the Garden from his days with UConn in the Big East. I love the addition of Walker as his scoring should relieve some of the pressure on veteran Derrick Rose who was asked to take on a prominent role over the course of last season. If Walker can elevate the play of the rest of the Knicks young core, the sky really is the limit this season. Here, we'll back the Knicks noting that they've thrived in similar situations as a short home favorite, going 26-7 ATS and outscoring opponents by 6.0 points on average when priced between +3 and -3 over the last season-plus. Better still, that record is 18-3 ATS when only factoring in home games, with New York outscoring opponents by 7.0 points on average. Take New York (10*). | |||||||
10-20-21 | Bruins -135 v. Flyers | 3-6 | Loss | -135 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston over Philadelphia at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Bruins will likely be a popular play on Wednesday night but that doesn't mean they're the wrong one. I like the way this one sets up for the B's as they hit the road for the first time this season to face the uneven Flyers. Philadelphia opened its campaign with a shootout loss to the Canucks - a game they really had no business getting a point out of having trailed by two goals with just a couple of minutes remaining. Since then we've seen the 'Nucks go on to lose games against the Red Wings and Sabres. We did see the Flyers bounce back on Monday as they caught the expansion Seattle Kraken in a favorable spot and rolled to a 6-1 victory. Here, they'll turn to backup goaltender Martin Jones against Boston and I'm not convinced they have the offensive firepower to keep up with the B's. Note that Philadelphia checks in 5-13 after scoring four goals or more in its last game over the last season-plus, outscored by an average margin of 1.6 goals in that situation. In fact, the Flyers are just 7-17 the last 24 times they've come off a win of any kind, outscored by 1.5 goals on average while giving up 4.1 goals per game in that situation. The Bruins have taken four of the last six meetings here in Philadelphia and I like their advantage here with underrated goaltender Jeremy Swayman going up against the aforementioned Jones. Take Boston (6*). | |||||||
10-20-21 | Coastal Carolina v. Appalachian State OVER 61.5 | 27-30 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Coastal Carolina and Appalachian State at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday. We won with Coastal Carolina in its most recent game while also cashing with the 'under' in Appalachian State's blowout loss against Louisiana-Lafayette last week. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'over' as the red hot Chanticleers stay on the road for a second straight game. Coastal Carolina was considered somewhat of a 'fluke' during a unique Covid-tinged 2020 season but there's no talk of that this year. The Chanticleers are the real deal. While their offense has been virtually unstoppable, their defense has also held up well. With that being said, few opposing offenses have offered much of a challenge. I do think we'll see CCU get a solid punch from Appalachian State here, however. The Mountaineers turned the football over four times in last week's 41-13 road loss against Lousiana-Lafayette. The hope is that they'll have standout RB Camerun Peoples back for this midweek affair, although even if he can't go, I still expect them to get well into the 20's at the very least. Defensively, Appalachian State is brimming with talent but that was the case last year as well. Despite holding the Chanticleers to 12-of-21 passing in that 2020 meeting, the Mountaineers still gave up 34 points. Meanwhile, they managed to score 23 points themselves despite three turnovers. In the last two games we saw Coastal Carolina put up 111 points and complete 43-of-51 passes for nearly 700 yards without barely breaking a sweat. The Chanticleers check in having run for over 200 yards in all six games this season. This is a team that's firing on all cylinders offensively with QB Grayson McCall one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the nation. I do think we see Appalachian State get enough offensive possessions to inflict some damage in this one - enough to help the final score up and 'over' the total. Last year's matchup featured a real defensive tone yet still got to 57 total points. Two years ago, these two teams combined to score a whopping 93 points. Expect this one to fall somewhere between those two numbers. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-20-21 | Astros +1.5 v. Red Sox | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston +1.5 runs over Boston at 5:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Astros stunned the Red Sox with a seven-run ninth inning last night - ruining our 'under' ticket in the process - and I look for them to build off of that victory on Wednesday. With struggling veteran Chris Sale taking the ball for Boston, I believe the case can be made that the wrong team is favored in this game. Sale has made two starts in the playoffs. In his first he gave up five earned runs in just an inning of work against the Rays. Earlier in this series against the Astros he lasted only 2 1/3 innings, allowing five hits and a walk while striking out only two in an eventual 5-4 loss. Astros starter Framber Valdez hasn't pitched particularly well in the postseason either but he's faced the Red Sox three times this season and Houston won all three games, including a 7-1 victory in his lone previous start here at Fenway Park (he worked into the eighth inning and allowed just one earned run in that outing). Here, I'll note that the Red Sox are just 33-42 when playing at home after winning two of their last three games over the last three seasons, as is the case here. They're a mediocre 65-66 after winning four or five of their last six games over the last three seasons - also the case here - not holding a scoring edge whatsoever in that situation. Finally, I'll point out that the Red Sox bullpen has taken a real sour turn, having blown four saves without converting a single one over their last seven games. Take Houston +1.5 runs (5*). | |||||||
10-19-21 | Warriors v. Lakers OVER 227 | Top | 121-114 | Win | 100 | 15 h 0 m | Show |
NBA TV Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Golden State and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. We'll go the contrarian route here and back the 'under' with this total having dropped several points since opening. Given the way last season played out for both of these teams it's no real surprise to see the total move in that direction. There are bettors that are just learning that Klay Thompson, while set to return this season, won't be ready for the start of the campaign. Still, as the relatively short pointspread indicates, I believe the Warriors can keep this game competitive. The Lakers had their share of struggles defending their title last season, with Lebron James and Anthony Davis in and out of the lineup due to injuries and a somewhat lacking supporting cast. Now we're talking about a different Lakers squad that I believe we'll be a lot more fun to watch with the likes of Russell Westbrook and Carmelo Anthony among those joining the fold. I'm not convinced either of these teams will be ready to come out playing hard-nosed defense. Note that the Lakers allowed at least 111 points in all six preseason contests - all losses. Meanwhile, the Warriors put up 111 points or more in all five preseason games, going undefeated along the way. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-19-21 | Ducks v. Oilers -1.5 | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Edmonton -1.5 goals over Anaheim at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. With the Ducks playing the second of back-to-back games in Alberta and fresh off last night's 3-2 overtime win over the Flames, I'm comfortable laying the extra goal with the Oilers in a favorable spot for the home side on Tuesday night. Note that the Ducks are a miserable 4-21 after a one-goal victory in their most recent game over the last 2+ seasons, outscored by an average margin of 1.6 goals in that spot. Worse still, Anaheim is 0-12 after winning two of its last three games over the last year, as is the case here, allowing 4.4 goals on average and outscored by an average margin of 2.7 goals in that situation. The Oilers are off to a tremendous start this season, scoring seven goals (they won their first game in a shootout) on a whopping 67 shots on goal. I don't expect them to get complacent in the final game of this three-game homestand, however, noting that they've allowed 85 shots on goal through two games, so there's room for improvement here. Take Edmonton -1.5 goals (6*). | |||||||
10-19-21 | Astros v. Red Sox UNDER 10 | 9-2 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Boston at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'over' in last night's Game 3 matchup - in fact, we've won with the 'over' twice already in this series. With each of the last five meetings between these two teams going 'over' the total and both teams entering on six-game 'over' streaks, it's no surprise that we're working with a double-digit total tonight. I believe it will prove too high. Note that the 'under' has gone 19-8 with the Astros playing on the road after losing two of their last three games this season, as is the case here, producing an average total of 8.2 runs. Houston is averaging just 4.0 runs with an average total of 8.2 runs in 27 previous situations where it was coming off a loss by four runs or more this season. The presence of struggling veteran Zack Greinke for the Astros is of course a concern. One thing he doesn't lack at this stage of his career is command, and it's worth noting that he has posted a better-than-MLB average hard-hit ball percentage and exit velocity off opposing bats this season. Nick Pivetta stepped into a pressure-packed situation against the Rays in the ALDS and tossed four shutout innings in his most recent appearance for the Red Sox. His overall numbers aren't great this season but I do think he can keep the Astros bats at bay in this one as Houston faces a lot of pressure down 2-1 in this series. Take the under (6*). | |||||||
10-19-21 | Jets v. Wild OVER 5.5 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Winnipeg and Minnesota at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. I like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair between the Jets and Wild on Tuesday night in the State of Hockey. The 'under' has actually combined to go a perfect 4-0 in games involving these teams this season but that only helps keep Tuesday's total at a reasonable number. Note that the Jets managed to score three goals despite firing only 23 shots on goal in Saturday's loss in San Jose. In Winnipeg's season-opening 4-1 loss in Anaheim it recorded 34 shots on goal. Here, we find the Jets averaging 3.3 goals per game when coming off a road loss over the last 2+ seasons. When playing three or more consecutive road games, they check in averaging 3.5 goals per contest. As for the Wild, the 'over' has gone 17-7 when they come off consecutive games in which they allowed two goals or less over the last 2+ seasons, leading to an average total of 6.7 goals. Similarly, the 'over' is 37-22 the last 59 times they've come off an 'under' result, as is the case here, good for an average total of 6.6 goals. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
10-19-21 | Blue Jackets v. Red Wings UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
NHL Eastern Conference Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Columbus and Detroit at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. We saw totals set at '5' in this same matchup down the stretch last season and I fully expect to see that number return in later season tilts between these two. Both are coming off low-scoring affairs. The Blue Jackets prevailed in overtime by a 2-1 score against the expansion Kraken on Saturday while the Red Wings skated to a 3-1 victory over the Canucks. Note that the 'under' has gone 12-3 with the Blue Jackets playing on the road off consecutive home games over the last 2+ seasons, with that situation producing an average total of just 4.9 goals. The 'under' is 9-1 the last 10 times the Jackets have played on the road off a win as they've averaged just 2.2 goals in that spot. Better still, the 'under' is 17-5 the last 22 times Columbus has followed up consecutive victories, as is the case here, good for an average total of only 4.9 goals. The Red Wings check in averaging a woeful 1.8 goals per game when playing at home following a home victory by two goals or more over the last two seasons, with the 'under' cashing all six times that situation has come up. When playing at home after scoring three goals or more in consecutive games over the last three seasons, the Wings have averaged a ridiculous 1.2 goals per contest, with the 'under' also cashing at a perfect 6-0 clip in that spot. While the last two meetings between the Jackets and Wings were high-scoring affairs, the 'under' remains a solid 59-40 (excluding pushes) all-time and 28-20 in games played here in Detroit. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-19-21 | Panthers +1.5 v. Lightning | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Florida +1.5 goals over Tampa Bay at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. While we're being asked to pay a fairly steep price to grab the insurance goal with the Panthers here, I believe that price could be even higher. Tampa Bay checks in off consecutive road wins over the Red Wings and Capitals, with both of those victories coming by a single goal. Remember, the Lightning opened the season with a resounding thud in a blowout home loss against the Crosby and Malkin-less Penguins. Now the Bolts will need to go forward without superstar Nikita Kucherov for an indefinite period of time. Here, we find Tampa Bay having gone 0-5, outscored by an average margin of 2.4 goals, the last five times it has come off consecutive road wins. The Bolts are also just 23-25 when coming off a one-goal victory over the last 2+ seasons, holding a minuscule 0.1-goal scoring advantage in that situation. Finally, they're 8-15 when checking in off an overtime win over that same stretch, outscored by an average margin of 0.3 goals. As for the Panthers, they're off to a perfect 2-0 start and now find themselves in a situation where they average a solid 3.4 goals per game off a win over the last three seasons. They'll give the start to Spencer Knight in goal on Tuesday and I see that as a positive as I do think he has an opportunity to supplant veteran Sergei Bobrovsky as the starter at some point this season. Take Florida +1.5 goals (5*). | |||||||
10-19-21 | Stars v. Penguins UNDER 5.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Stars have seen the 'under' cash in all three games so far this season while the Penguins have delivered 'over' results in all three of their games to date - despite playing without Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. Here, I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair. Note that the 'under' has gone 7-1 with the Penguins playing at home after scoring three goals or more in three consecutive games over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of just 4.0 goals. Additionally, the 'under' is 28-12 with the Stars having given up three goals or more in consecutive games over the last 2+ seasons, producing an average total of only 5.0 goals. Pittsburgh's home-opener totaled seven goals but featured only 46 combined shots on goal. The Pens allowed only 20 shots in the game. After giving up a whopping 73 shots on goal in their first two games, the Stars tightened things up allowing only 27 shots in a losing effort in Ottawa on Sunday. Take the under (6*). | |||||||
10-19-21 | Avalanche v. Capitals OVER 6 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. With Nathan MacKinnon ready to take the ice for the first time this season, we'll take a flyer on the 'over' as the Avalanche play their first road game of the season in Washington on Tuesday night. I think the Capitals are going to be involved in plenty of high-scoring affairs this season. Washington's blue-line anchors John Carlson and Dmitry Orlov aren't getting any younger and the Caps are only average between the pipes (Ilya Samsonov is expected to get his first start of the season tonight). In this spot, we'll note that the Caps have posted a 14-3 o/u record when coming off a game where three goals or less were scored over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here following Saturday's 2-1 home loss to the Lightning. That situation has produced an average total of 6.8 goals. Also note that the 'over' has gone 23-12 with the Capitals coming off consecutive home games, a spot in which they've averaged 3.6 goals with those games totaling an average of 6.7 goals over the last 2+ seasons. Even without MacKinnon on the ice, the Avs have scored seven goals through two games this season. They average a whopping 4.3 goals per game when coming off consecutive home games over the last two seasons. Take the over (5*). | |||||||
10-18-21 | Astros v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 3-12 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
ALCS Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Boston at 8:05 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams enter Game 3 of the ALCS riding five-game 'over' streaks and I don't believe those streaks are in jeopardy of ending here. Jose Uquidy will get his first start of the postseason for the Astros. While his overall numbers this season are solid, here he runs into a red hot Red Sox lineup, noting that he hasn't really been fooling anyone, topping out at six strikeouts in his last nine starts. I'll also point out that the 'over' has gone 12-4 when Urquidy starts with a posted total of between 8.5 and 10.0 runs, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 11.1 runs scored. Eduardo Rodriguez made two starts for the Red Sox in the ALDS but wasn't particularly sharp, allowing four earned runs in 6 2/3 innings of work. The Astros faced him twice during the regular season, plating 12 earned runs in just 9 1/3 innings. You would have to go back six home starts - all the way to August 15th - to find the last time Rodriguez was involved in a game at Fenway Park that didn't reach at least nine total runs. He never looked all that comfortable pitching at home this season, posting a 5.78 ERA and 1.37 WHIP while averaging just 4 2/3 innings per start. Neither bullpen is all that imposing. The Astros 'pen has converted just 19 saves while blowing 17 on the road this season. The Sox 'pen hasn't been much better at home, converting 21 saves while blowing 15. Note that the Boston relief corps has yet to convert a save in the playoffs while blowing three. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-18-21 | Seattle Kraken v. Flyers OVER 6 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
NHL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The Kraken opened the season with consecutive high-scoring games - dropping a 4-3 decision in Las Vegas before picking up their first franchise victory by an identical 4-3 score in Nashville. Last time out we saw Seattle involved in a low-scoring affair as it fell 2-1 in overtime in Columbus. Here, I believe the stage is set for the Kraken to get involved in a back-and-forth, high-scoring game against the Flyers. Philadelphia rallied from a 4-2 deficit late in the third period to force overtime against the Canucks on Friday but ultimately fell in a shootout. Flyers goaltender Carter Hart picked up right where he left off last season, struggling mightily between the pipes. It's getting to the point now where it's difficult to envision any sort of 'quick fix' for Hart. The good news is, the Flyers do have plenty of offensive firepower, as we saw in Friday's comeback against the Canucks. Here, I'll note that Philadelphia has allowed a whopping 4.5 goals per game after scoring four goals or more in its previous game over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an average total of 7.0 goals scored. The 'over' has also gone 13-5 the last 18 times the Flyers have played at home with the total set at 6.0 goals (excluding pushes), good for an average total of 7.3 goals scored in that situation. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-17-21 | Cowboys v. Patriots +3.5 | 35-29 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on New England plus the points over Dallas at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. This Patriots are in a terrific spot on Sunday as they return home to host the Cowboys who are coming off four straight wins, including a perfect 3-0 homestand. The last time we saw Dallas play on the road, it eked out a 20-17 win over the Chargers in Los Angeles. The Cowboys have only managed to split two road games this season, with both of those games decided by a field goal or less. Another close game should be in order on Sunday. New England was in a clear letdown spot last week on the road against the lowly Texans. Credit the Pats and rookie QB Mac Jones for pulling out a victory even if they didn't manage to cover the lofty pointspread. Here, we find Dallas a long-term loser at 39-59 ATS when playing on the road off a home victory, outscored by 1.4 points on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Pats are an impressive 26-9 ATS in their last 35 games as a home underdog, including a 1-0 ATS mark this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 0.7 points. Take New England (10*). | |||||||
10-17-21 | Cardinals v. Browns -175 | 37-14 | Loss | -175 | 20 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland moneyline over Arizona at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I think this play is more straight-forward than most are making it out to be. Yes, the Cardinals are the league's lone undefeated team but their wins have come against disappointing Tennessee and Minnesota squads, the lowly Jaguars, the Rams in a clear letdown spot off a win over the then-undefeated defending Super Bowl champion Bucs and the Niners who were giving rookie QB Trey Lance his first career start. Now the Cards roll into the Dawg Pound to face a Browns squad that's coming off a near-miss against the Chargers in Los Angeles last week. Cleveland is missing some key cogs, including RB Nick Chubb, but this one's more about the Browns defense. I look for them to harass Cards QB Kyler Murray all afternoon long and ultimately force a key second half turnover that turns the tide in this contest. Take Cleveland moneyline (6*). | |||||||
10-17-21 | Texans v. Colts -10 | Top | 3-31 | Win | 100 | 18 h 36 m | Show |
NFL Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Indianapolis minus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. There's no reason for the Colts to be down on themselves following an overtime loss to the Ravens on Monday Night Football. If anything, they should bring positive momentum from that game and now find themselves in a smash spot against the Texans, who may not win another game this season (that's not a stretch). Houston fell just short at home against the Patriots last week - who were in a clear flat spot off their matchup with Tom Brady and the Bucs. Now the Texans go into Indianapolis without two key cogs on their offensive line in Justin Britt and Laremy Tunsil. The Colts offense has been quietly effective over the last two weeks, running fot 139 and 123 yards while QB Carson Wentz has come to life, completing 49-of-67 passes for 600 yards over that stretch. With one of the more underrated backfields in the entire NFL, the Colts have the ability to salt this game away should they build a considerable second half lead, as we expect. Take Indianapolis (10*). | |||||||
10-17-21 | Chargers v. Ravens -2.5 | Top | 6-34 | Win | 100 | 17 h 6 m | Show |
AFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over Los Angeles at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Ravens keep finding ways to win and I don't expect the Chargers to be the ones to end their winning streak on Sunday afternoon. Here, we'll fade Los Angeles noting that it has gone a miserable 2-10 ATS after gaining 400 or more total yards in its last game over the last three seasons. The Browns were set up on a tee for the Chargers last Sunday in Los Angeles yet they needed a fourth quarter rally to earn the win (and cover). We actually won with the Bolts in that contest. Meanwhile, the Ravens had no business winning against the Colts last Monday night but pulling out unlikely wins has been their M.O. this season and here they comfortably find themselves in the second game of a four-game homestand. QB Lamar Jackson is balling out right now and while the Chargers defense offers a considerable challenge, I think he'll be up for it after completing 37-of-43 passes for 437 yards on Monday night. While the talent is there, save for the Raiders and Washington Football Team, the Chargers haven't really been able to stop anyone this season. Take Baltimore (10*). | |||||||
10-16-21 | Arizona State v. Utah +1 | 21-35 | Win | 100 | 36 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah over Arizona State at 10 pm et on Saturday. We won with Arizona State in its 18-point victory over Stanford last week but I won't hesitate to switch gears and fade the Sun Devils here as they head on the road for only the second time this season to face Utah on Saturday night. Keep in mind, Arizona State's lone loss this season came away from home as it fell 27-17 against BYU. The Sun Devils didn't come out of last week's win unscathed as they're dealing with a cluster of injuries on the defensive side of the football. Key DT Jermayne Lole is gone for the season while safety Evan Fields is questionable to play against the Utes on Saturday. Those are only a couple of the walking wounded. Utah continues to make up for lost time after starting the season with two losses in its first three games (the Utes lost those games outright as favorites on the road against BYU and San Diego State). After posting consecutive wins over Washington State and USC and with six very winnable games coming up after this one in Pac-12 play, everything is still in front of the Utes despite their poor start. Note that Utah checks in 12-3 ATS from October on over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 16.5 points along the way. On the flip side, the Sun Devils are a miserable 24-42 ATS the last 66 times they've come off victories in four or five of their last six games, as is the case here (5-1 on the season). Take Utah (9*). | |||||||
10-16-21 | Colorado State -10.5 v. New Mexico | 36-7 | Win | 100 | 33 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado State minus the points over New Mexico at 7 pm et on Saturday. It seems that everyone was down on Colorado State at the start of the season and perhaps for good reason as they opened with a 42-23 loss to FCS squad South Dakota State and followed that up with a defeat at the hands of lowly Vanderbilt. But then a funny thing happened, the Rams upset Toledo 22-6 at the Glass Bowl and proceeded to give top-five ranked Iowa a serious run in an eventual 10-point loss (on the road) before crushing San Jose State 32-14 last Saturday. The Rams have a lot going for them now and while it won't be easy, there is a path for them to potentially reach a Bowl game, but they need to keep it rolling in this very winnable game against New Mexico and I'm confident they will. Colorado State QB Todd Centeio is coming off arguably his best performance of the season as he completed 19-of-23 passes for 232 yards and a touchdown in last week's rout of San Jose State. Most importantly, he's taking good care of the football, having not thrown a single interception over the last three games, despite facing a pretty tough slate of defensive opponents over that stretch. Centeio isn't just a passer either, he can make plays with his legs, having run for at least 37 yards in three of the last four games. There's reason to believe Centeio will have some help in this one as the Rams backfield is coming off their best performance of the season. Saturday's opponent, New Mexico, got off to a 2-0 start this season but that was thanks to facing the likes of FCS squad Houston Baptist and New Mexico State. Since then, the Aggies have gone 0-4, outscored by a wide 123-30 margin. The injuries are starting to pile up, with Kentucky transfer QB Terry Wilson the latest to go down. He's questionable to play on Saturday. Even if he can go, I'm not convinced the offense can do much, noting that the only seven points the Aggies scored last week against San Diego State came by way of a fumble return for a touchdown. You would have to go back five-and-a-half quarters to find the last time New Mexico State scored an offensive touchdown. That's the Aggies only offensive TD over their last 11 quarters of football. Take Colorado State (10*). | |||||||
10-16-21 | Montreal -5.5 v. Ottawa | 27-16 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Montreal minus the points over Ottawa at 4 pm et on Saturday. We won with the RedBlacks in this same matchup on Monday but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Alouettes in Saturday's rematch in Ottawa. Montreal jumped out to a quick 7-0 lead less than three minutes into Monday's contest. I think at that point the Als thought the game was going to be a cake-walk. It wasn't. Ottawa battled but ultimately fell short once again, dropping to 2-7 on the season. Note that the RedBlacks didn't score a single touchdown in that loss. In fact, you would have to go back nine quarters to find the last time Ottawa registered an offensive touchdown. Defense is where I expect the RedBlacks to struggle in this one, noting that they'll be without a pair of key defenders due to injuries in Avery Williams and Praise Martin-Oguike. Williams has been one of the team's top tacklers all season while Martin-Oguike has led their limited pass rush. For Montreal, all indications are that QB Vernon Adams Jr. will be good to go after leaving Monday's game with a shoulder injury. The Als will also welcome back RB William Stanback after he missed Monday's contest. Take Montreal (10*). | |||||||
10-16-21 | BYU v. Baylor UNDER 51.5 | Top | 24-38 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 39 m | Show |
CFB Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between BYU and Baylor at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. Baylor has had a couple of offensive explosions this season, including a 45-point outburst against West Virginia last Saturday (we won with the Bears in that game). However, while known for their offense, I believe the Bears strength lies on the defensive side of the football this season. Don't count on another boxscore-stuffing game from the Baylor offense here as it faces a good BYU defense coming off a tough 26-17 loss against Boise State last week. Credit the Cougars defense for holding up well in that game despite being dealt a tough hand with the offense turning the football over four times in the loss. With that in mind, we can anticipate a more conservative offensive approach from BYU here, especially considering the ball-hawking nature of the Bears defense (they've forced at least one turnover in all six games this season). Note that the Cougars have yet to top 22 pass completions in a game this season. They posted a season-high 37 pass attempts in last week's game against Boise, but that had everything to do with game script. I'm confident we'll see them rely heavily on the run as they try to effectively shorten this game as a substantial underdog in Waco. Baylor boasts a shutdown pass defense of sorts, allowing just 6.1 yards per pass attempt and no more than 24 pass completions in any of its six games this season. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-16-21 | Akron v. Miami-OH UNDER 51 | Top | 21-34 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 53 m | Show |
MAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Akron and Miami-Ohio at 2:30 pm et on Saturday. Akron managed to score 35 points in last week's upset win over Bowling Green, on the road no less, but don't count on a similar story unfolding this week as the Zips head to Yager Stadium to take on the Redhawks of Miami-Ohio. It's worth noting that the Zips scored those 35 points thanks in large part to an awful Bowling Green squad turning over the football on five occasions. Last week actually marked the second time Akron managed to score 35 points this season but the other occurrence came against an FCS opponent, Bryant, back in mid-September. Outside of those two performances, the Zips have managed to score more than 17 points just once this season, that coming against an awful Temple defense in a blowout loss. Defensively, the Zips haven't been as bad as we've seen in recent years, particularly against the run. The longest rush they allowed in blowout losses against powerhouse opponents Auburn and Ohio State (both games were played on the road) went for 'just' 37 yards. It's not as if teams have been bombing away on them either. Only Ohio State managed to pass for more than 300 yards against the Zips and no opponent has topped 22 pass completions (I realize game script has had a lot to do with that as most of Akron's opponents have been nursing big leads). My point is, Akron does boast a better, more experienced defense than we've been accustomed to seeing in recent years and there's reason to believe it can at least keep a struggling Redhawks offense in check on Saturday. Miami-Ohio has topped out at 28 points in a game this season as it continues to have a tough time finding any sort of continuity at the quarterback position, or explosiveness out of the backfield. Here, I don't think the Redhawks will pay too much attention to earning 'style points' - they simply want to avoid falling to 1-2 in MAC play before playing their next two games on the road. As usual, Miami-Ohio has a terrific defense. You can't put too much stock in the Redhawks defensive numbers so far this season as they opened with a tough three-game slate on the road against Cincinnati, Minnesota and Army. Since opening MAC play they've held their two opponents to just 103 rushing yards on 60 attempts and 50-of-80 passing, allowing a grand total of only 30 points. Note that the 'under' checks in 17-3 the last 20 times the Redhawks have come off an upset loss as a favorite, leading to an average total of just 40.6 points scored in that situation. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 16-4 the last 20 times Akron has allowed 475 total yards per game over its last three contests, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-16-21 | Coyotes v. Sabres OVER 5.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -111 | 1 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Buffalo at 1:05 pm et on Saturday. I'll keep my analysis brief with puck drop going shortly in Buffalo. Arizona will give Karel Vejmelka his first NHL start in goal while the Sabres go with Dustin Tokarski. Of course, the Yotes were involved in a wild 8-2 loss in Columbus two nights ago while Buffalo rolled to a blowout win over the Habs. Expect plenty of goals in this one as well, even with both teams fairly short on scoring depth up front. Take the over (5*). | |||||||
10-16-21 | Duke v. Virginia OVER 69.5 | 0-48 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Duke and Virginia at 12:30 pm et on Saturday. The fact that the 'under' has cashed in Duke's last two games and each of Virginia's last three contests is the only thing keeping this number even reasonably in check on Saturday. I realize we're working with a lofty total still, but I do think it could be even higher. Duke's defense lacks the talent and experience to slow anyone down. Sure, the Blue Devils held FCS squad North Carolina A&T and a punchless Northwestern offense down earlier in the season but since then they've been flamed for 33, 38 and 31 points in games against Kansas, North Carolina and Georgia Tech. Things certainly don't get any easier against a Virginia offense that likes to bomb away, having attempted 40+ passes in five straight games and 57 or more in three of its last four contests. Back to Duke, its offense looks poised for a breakout here with QB Gunnar Holmberg settling in and throwing for touchdown passes in four straight games, topping the 290-yard mark three times over that stretch. He remains a threat to run as well, noting that he scored four rushing touchdowns in a game against Kansas back in late September. We've also seen RB Mataeo Durant emerge as a home run threat out of the backfield, running for over 100 yards in five of six games and north of 150 yards on two occasions this season. Virginia can't help but get involved in shootouts on a weekly basis as it allows 5.2 yards per rush and 8.1 yards per pass attempt. Were it not for nine turnovers in its last five games, Virginia's offense would have posted monster numbers this season. As it is, the Cavaliers are still stuffing the boxscore, racking up over 400 passing yards in four of their last five games. Note that the Blue Devils haven't had a lick of success against the pass this season, allowing 431 pass yards per game on a whopping 8.8 yards per pass attempt. Take the over (9*). | |||||||
10-15-21 | San Diego State v. San Jose State +8 | Top | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 86 h 32 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on San Jose State plus the points over San Diego State at 10:30 pm et on Friday. While San Jose State hasn't gotten off to the start it hoped for this season, due in part to losing QB Nick Starkel to injury, everything is still in front of the Spartans. I still see a path to seven victories and a Bowl game but the turnaround has to start here against San Diego State on Friday night. Keep in mind, the Spartans upset the Aztecs as a double-digit road underdog in last year's matchup between these two teams. While San Jose State hasn't played as well as it did during that magical 2020 campaign, I still believe it can hang with an Aztecs squad that also isn't without its flaws. San Diego State rolled to a 31-7 victory over New Mexico last Saturday, improving to a perfect 5-0 on the season. The Spartans certainly know what to expect when it comes to the Aztecs offense. San Diego State will lean heavily on its two-headed monster in the backfield, Greg and Chance Bell. If there's one area where the Spartans defense has been stout, it's against the run as they've limited opponents to just 3.8 yards per rush this season. With a still unproven QB in Jordon Brookshire, who has been banged-up for most of the season, the Aztecs aerial attack isn't all that imposing. It remains to be seen whether San Jose State QB Starkel can return for this game. Even if he can't, I do expect Nick Nash to perform better than he did in last week's road game against Colorado State. Nash has had enough playing time going back to last season to settle into the offense a little bit and is more of a dual threat than Starkel. Consider San Diego State's defense has feasted on the likes of New Mexico State, Arizona, Towson and New Mexico this season. In its only real test it allowed 31 points in a narrow two-point win over Utah. San Jose State, meanwhile, has only had two home games, scoring a whopping 82 points in those two contests, albeit against weaker opposition. Take San Jose State (10*). | |||||||
10-15-21 | Red Sox v. Astros OVER 8 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Houston at 8:05 pm et on Friday. We saw a classic pitching duel between the Dodgers and Giants last night but I expect nothing of the sort as the Red Sox and Astros open the ALCS on Friday. Chris Sale certainly isn't the same pitcher he once was and isn't likely to work deep into the game for Boston in the series-opener. He was chased after allowing five earned runs in just an inning of work against Tampa Bay last round. His 10 starts this season have totaled 18, 6, 14, 5, 21, 8, 17, 6, 12 and 20 runs...you get the picture. Astros starter Framber Valdez faced the Red Sox twice during the regular season with those two outings coming over a six-day stretch in early June. Boston wasn't hitting very well at all at that stage of the season. It's a different story now as it enters this series having scored 26 runs in its last three games. Valdez has made six starts since the beginning of September with those games totaling 12, 15, 10, 3, 14 and 13 runs. Note that the 'over' has gone 22-8 with the Astros coming off a game in which they allowed one run or less this season, producing an average total of 10.5 runs in that situation. Take the over (6*). | |||||||
10-15-21 | Canucks v. Flyers -145 | 5-4 | Loss | -145 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over Vancouver at 7:05 pm et on Friday. There will be spots to fade the Flyers early in this season but I firmly believe those will come in situations where backup goaltender Martin Jones gets the call between the pipes. Here in their home opener, we can expect Carter Hart in goal, noting that he's looking to bounce back from an inexplicably awful season and ready to build on a strong preseason that saw him start two games, allowing just two goals on 43 shots. I'm high on the Flyers in general. They added to their depth with some savvy moves in the offseason, including adding Cam Atkinson. They also have plenty of young players ready to take another step forward this year, most notably Travis Konecny (he only seems like he's been in the league forever) and Joel Farabee. The Canucks managed to earn a point in a shootout loss to the Oilers two nights ago but their potential lack of scoring punch was evident as they found the back of the net only twice on 38 shots. While I do think Vancouver can be a playoff contender this season, this is a tough six-game season-opening road trip that takes it all over the map. Take Philadelphia (5*). | |||||||
10-14-21 | Dodgers v. Giants OVER 6.5 | 2-1 | Loss | -125 | 33 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and San Francisco at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'over' in Game 4 of this series on Tuesday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play in Thursday's fifth-and-deciding game between these storied rivals. The last time the Giants sent Logan Webb to the hill was in the opener of this series. They could have scored a single run and won that game as Webb was outstanding, working into the eighth inning in an eventual 4-0 victory. Here, I expect the Dodgers to have an answer with Julio Urias on the mound. Note that the 'over' has gone 15-5 with Urias coming off a start in which he allowed one earned run or less over the last two seasons, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 10.3 runs. The 'over' has also gone a solid 22-9 with the Dodgers playing in a game where the total was set at 7.0 runs or less over the last three seasons, good for an average total of 8.4 runs scored. Meanwhile, the Giants have averaged 6.3 runs per game when Logan Webb comes off a start in which he gave up one earned run or less this season, resulting in an average total of 8.8 runs. Note also that the Dodgers are averaging 5.2 runs per game but also allowing 4.4 runs per game when playing on the road off a win by four runs or more over the last three seasons, as is the case here following Tuesday's 7-2 victory at Chavez Ravine. Finally I'll point out that both of Thursday's starters are riding career-long stretches of starts without allowing a single home run. We'll call for regression to the mean in that department here. Take the over (7*). | |||||||
10-14-21 | Bucs v. Eagles OVER 52 | Top | 28-22 | Loss | -111 | 32 h 15 m | Show |
TNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Philadelphia at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. It's going to take a monumental defensive effort to slow the Bucs offense right now (yes, I realize they're just one game removed from a heavy rain-induced slugfest in New England) as they feature a number of elite players performing at a career-best levels. Tom Brady is averaging north of 350 passing yards per game and has already racked up 15 touchdown passes. Mike Evans and Antonio Brown are playing out of their minds right now while we're bound to see Chris Godwin explode any week now, noting that he drew a whopping 11 targets against the Dolphins last Sunday. The Eagles haven't been tough against the pass in recent years and that certainly hasn't changed here in 2021, particularly against elite opposing quarterbacks (ugly performances against Dak Prescott and Patrick Mahomes come to mind). The only difference with the Eagles defense this year is that they're struggling to stop the run as well, allowing north of 4.5 yards per rush. I like the fact that the Bucs have finally settled on Lenny Fournette in a lead-back role. The Bucs aren't without their issues defensively, largely due to injuries in their secondary. Antoine Winfield Jr. is the latest key cog to go down with an injury. While it's possible he plays, that's no certainty as he deals with a concussion on a short week. With the Eagles low-scoring 21-18 win over the defensive-minded Panthers fresh in everyone's minds, we're able to take advantage of a reasonable total here. Keep in mind, Philadelphia has also been involved in games totaling 62 points against Dallas (we won with the 'over' in that one) and 72 points against Kansas City. Game script has resulted in a few other low-scoring affairs, but in this spot, I fully expect to see the Eagles playing from behind for much of the night - just as they were in those high-scoring affairs against the Cowboys and Chiefs. While I'm not all that high on Jalen Hurts as the long-term solution for the Eagles at quarterback, there's no denying he's a baller, certainly capable of taking advantage of a banged-up, underperforming Bucs defense. Even the punchless Dolphins offense, led by Jacoby Brissett, was able to put up 17 points just past the midway point of the third quarter last week, on the road no less. Miami's offense fizzled from there while the Bucs kept pouring it on, as they're known to do, scoring three unanswered fourth quarter touchdowns. As much as I like playing primetime 'unders', I don't believe this matchup fits the bill. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-14-21 | Navy v. Memphis OVER 55 | Top | 17-35 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 43 m | Show |
AAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Navy and Memphis at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. While some will look at this matchup and see a high posted total given Navy's reputation for running the football and eating clock in the process, I believe the number will prove too low. I simply feel this game has big-play potential from start to finish and projects as precisely the shootout the oddsmakers are expecting. Of course, last year's matchup between the Midshipmen and Tigers fizzed, ending with just 17 total points despite the total being set in the mid-60's. I expect a different story to unfold here. Navy has had a miserable time trying to stop opposing offenses, whether it's on the ground or through the air. The Middies check into this one allowing 8.3 yards per pass and 5.7 yards per rush. Their depth on defense has been seriously tested as they lost two of their five best defenders earlier in the season, Tama Tuitele (transfer portal) and Mitchell West (season-ending knee injury). While they haven't been truly boat-raced since their season-opening 49-7 rout at the hands of Marshall, they have allowed at least 28 points in each of their last three games. Two weeks ago against a comparable offense to the one they'll face on Thursday, they gave up three touchdown drives in the game's first 29 minutes against Central Florida. Memphis poses a stiff challenge with an offense that has been highly-consistent and explosive at times this season. QB Seth Henigan isn't afraid to bomb away and he should find plenty of success throwing on an average Navy secondary. Henigan has attempted 97 passes in the Tigers last two games, throwing for nearly 800 yards, five touchdowns and two interceptions. He also has some mobility and should give the Middies plenty of headaches on Thursday night. The fact that Asa Martin, a key transfer at running back, has only had 14 carries for the Tigers this season is telling. The Memphis backfield is brimming with talent and with a steady rotation should be able to stay fresh and excel against an undersized Navy defensive front. On the flip side, few teams have stuck with the run against Memphis this season but we know the Midshipmen will with their triple-option attack. Navy hogged the time of possession last year, churning out well over 200 rush yards on north of 50 attempts against the Tigers last season. Here, I look for Navy to hit a few more home runs and perhaps not put together as many of those long, clock-churning drives. We saw some leaks in the Memphis run defense last week as it was torched for 235 yards on 44 attempts - good for well over 5.0 yards per rush - and three touchdowns against Tulsa. Playing on a short week here, I don't expect there to be any quick fixes. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-14-21 | Stars v. Rangers -115 | 3-2 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Dallas at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Rangers inexplicably elected to 'punt' last night's season-opener in Washington - more or less - starting backup goaltender Alex Georgiev in a blowout loss. Often times those type of decisions have a trickle-down effect through the rest of the dressing room, and I think that may have been the case last night. They're expected to have Igor Shesterkin back between the pipes for Thursday's home-opener and I'm confident we'll see a much better performance from the Blueshirts. This is the first real test for new head coach Gerard Gallant as he aims to get his players back up on a quick turn-around. I like the matchup here with the Stars coming off a down campaign as they struggled to recapture the lightning in a bottle that led them to a surprising Stanley Cup Final appearance in 2020. Dallas' roster remains relatively unchanged from recent years and I'm not sure that's a positive thing at this point. Take New York (5*). | |||||||
10-14-21 | Coyotes v. Blue Jackets -138 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
NHL Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Columbus over Arizona at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Coyotes have the potential to be one of the league's worst teams this season and while the Blue Jackets are by no means a Stanley Cup contender, I do think they'll be in the hunt for the playoffs and could be better than most are projecting if they can overcome a few key losses. I actually like the make-up of this Jackets squad. Cam Atkinson is gone but he was a general disappointment last season. Seth Jones has also moved on but he already had one foot out the door all of last season. Gone is the distraction of former head coach John Tortorella and his feuds with players. It feels like a fresh start for the Jackets and I expect them to get off to a strong start. The Coyotes have gone through some changes, most notably dealing one of their best offensive threats in Conor Garland to Vancouver. This is a team that really lacks an identity at this point and I expect them to be in tough opening the campaign on the road, where Columbus has traditionally found plenty of success. Take Columbus (10*). | |||||||
10-13-21 | Canadiens +1.5 v. Maple Leafs | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Montreal +1.5 goals over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'll grab the insurance goal with the Canadiens as they open their season on the road against the rival Maple Leafs. Of course, the big news in Montreal is that goaltender Carey Price has entered into the NHL's Player Assistance Program and will be away from the team for an indefinite period of time. Fortunately for the Canadiens, they have one of the best backup goaltenders in the league in Jake Allen. Allen stepped in for Price for extended stretches last season and performed admirably and I expect more of the same this year. The Habs are of course coming off the bitter disappointment of losing in the Stanley Cup Final against the Golden Knights last summer. There's certainly reason for optimism entering the 2021-22 season. The Habs delivered some good news this week as they locked up emerging superstar Nick Suzuki with an eight-year contract. Toronto will start the season without a star of its own in Auston Matthews. The Leafs are once again brimming with talent and potential but it remains to be seen whether they can put it all together and finally go on a deep postseason run. As is often the case between these two teams, I'm anticipating a tightly-contested affair on Wednesday night. Take Montreal +1.5 goals (5*). | |||||||
10-12-21 | Giants v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
NLDS Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between San Francisco and Los Angeles at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. With the Giants coming off a 1-0 victory last night, pushing the Dodgers to the brink of elimination in the process, I like the way Game 4 sets up as a relatively high-scoring affair. Note that the 'over' has gone 15-4 with the Giants coming off an underdog win over a division opponent this season, as is the case here. That situation has produced an average total of 10.7 runs. The 'over' also checks 38-22 with San Francisco coming off a game in which it gave up one run or less over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of 10.5 runs. The Dodgers, meanwhile, check in averaging 5.9 runs per game when coming off a loss against a division opponent in a game in which they were favored this season. That situation has produced an average total of 9.9 runs. They also average 5.5 runs per game when playing at home after being involved in a game that saw both teams score three runs or less, good for an average total of 8.4 runs. Neither of tonight's starters are all that imposing. For San Francisco's part, it averages 5.5 runs per game after scoring two runs or less in consecutive games over the last three seasons, as is the case here as well. The Dodgers will be getting their seventh look at Anthony DeSclafani this season. They tagged him for 22 earned runs in 27 innings during the regular season. Meanwhile, the Dodgers have yet to announce their starter but we can assume it will be 'all hands on deck' in this elimination game. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-12-21 | Penguins v. Lightning -185 | 6-2 | Loss | -185 | 14 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Pittsburgh at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. During the preseason we looked to back the Lightning any time they put forth anything close to resembling their 'A' squad. Yes, they're that good again this season. Little changed from the team that just hoisted Lord Stanley's cup for the second straight year, I'm confident we'll see the Bolts get the 2021-22 season off to a winning start on Tuesday night. The Penguins won't roll over, of course, in fact I do expect them to put forth a gritty effort here even without their two superstars in Geno Malkin and Sidney Crosby - both sidelined due to injuries to start the season. The Pens aren't short on depth but they are a little talent-shy, especially when compared to the Lightning. While we are dealing with a rather lofty price here, I believe it could be even higher. Rather than try to reinvent the wheel here, we'll stick with the Bolts. Take Tampa Bay (5*). | |||||||
10-12-21 | Appalachian State v. UL-Lafayette UNDER 55.5 | Top | 13-41 | Win | 100 | 34 h 16 m | Show |
Sun Belt Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Appalachian State and Louisiana-Lafayette at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. While both of these offenses are ultra-talented and capable of putting points on the board in a hurry, they'll both be facing their toughest defensive opponent to date on Tuesday night. Last year's matchup between these two teams produced just 45 points as the Ragin' Cajuns pulled off an outright upset away from home. In what should be a similarly tightly-contested affair, I expect points to come at a premium. Both squads are loaded with talent and experience on the defensive side of the football. In fact, the majority of the defenders that starred in last year's matchup that featured just 18 completed passes between the two teams are back in the fold here in 2021. It's also notable that both teams have somehow avoided the injury bug (for the most part) through the first month and a half of the season. Louisiana recently welcomed back star LB Ferrod Gardner and he's chipped in 11 tackles and generally wreaked havoc in two games. Appalachian State is strong from the back-end in (by that I mean their secondary is their strength) and that's what we want to see when backing a college football 'under'. Ragin' Cajuns QB Levi Lewis is an experienced leader of the offense but he's often relegated to 'game manager' role in tough matchups such as this one. Note that he's completed more than 19 passes just twice in five games this season, with one of those efforts coming as the Cajuns played in catch-up mode in a season-opening blowout loss on the road against Texas. Save for a 49-point explosion against a down-trodden Ohio squad, the Ragin' Cajuns have generally been held in check on offense, topping out at 28 points in their other four games. Appalachian State busted out for 45 points last time out but that performance came against a Georgia State squad that earlier in the season allowed 102 points in consecutive games against Army and North Carolina. In their toughest previous defensive test this season, the Mountaineers scored just 23 points in a two-point loss at Miami. Of course, it's not as if the Canes are a defensive powerhouse this season. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-11-21 | Colts v. Ravens UNDER 46.5 | 25-31 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Indianapolis and Baltimore at 8:15 pm et on Monday. Desperately trying to secure their first victory of the season, the Colts have thrown the football 38, 36, 37 and 32 times in their first four games but that pass-heavy approach has proven rather fruitless as they've topped out at just 245 yards through the air. Now that they have a win under their belts, I suspect we'll see them revert to a more ground-oriented approach in a tough road game in Baltimore. Despite their lacking talent, there is reason to believe the Colts can extend some drives and effectively shorten this game noting that only four teams have given up more receiving yards to opposing running backs than the Ravens. With a banged-up offensively line, we can expect Colts head coach Frank Reich to scheme up a run-heavy gameplan on offense that should also include plenty of dinking-and-dunking from QB Carson Wentz. On the flip side, this spot wraps up a soft three-game stretch in the Ravens schedule and they've feasted so far, allowing a grand total of 24 points in wins over the Lions and Broncos. They faced the Colts in a less-friendly environment last season, on the road in a game that featured a closing total of 47.5 points and gave up just 10 points in a two-touchdown victory that easily cruised 'under' the total. Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson has somewhat surprisingly thrown the football a whopping 68 times in the last two games, completing only 38 of those pass attempts. I expect Jackson to have limited success delivering big plays through the air against the Colts conservative zone defense. Note that the 'under' has gone 65-28 including 25-12 in the last 10 seasons with an elite team (.750 win percentage or better) returning home off an outright underdog road win with a total between 42 and 49.5 points with that situation producing an average total of only 41.7 points. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-11-21 | Toronto v. Hamilton UNDER 44 | 24-23 | Loss | -111 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first half 'under' between Toronto and Hamilton at 4 pm et on Monday. Low-scoring games have been commonplace in the CFL this season and I expect a similar story to unfold - at least early on - in Monday's rivalry showdown between the Argos and Tiger-Cats. I'll play the 'under' in the first half only as the Argos have listed previously-injured QB Nick Arbuckle as the backup to McLeod Bethel-Thompson in this game and should Bethel-Thompson struggle early on I wouldn't be surprised to see the more dynamic Arbuckle take over. Job number one for the Ti-Cats in this one will be taking care of the football on offense. The Argos are coming off back-to-back 30+ point performances but that's in direct correlation with the fact that they secured four turnovers in each of those games. In fact, Toronto ran two interceptions back for touchdowns in last Wednesday's 35-16 rout of the RedBlacks. It's worth noting that Toronto is averaging a woeful 16.2 points per game on the road this season, including just 4.7 points per game in the first half. While the Ti-Cats average north of 25 points per game here at Tim Hortons Field, they've been slow starters, averaging only 7.3 points per contest in the first half. Take the first half under (8*). | |||||||
10-11-21 | Ottawa +9.5 v. Montreal | Top | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
East Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Ottawa plus the points over Montreal at 1 pm et on Monday. Caleb Evans had his 'welcome to the CFL' moment in last Wednesday's 35-16 rout at the hands of the Argos. In fact he had two. Evans threw a pair of costly pick-sixes that turned that game from a competitive affair into a blowout. I'm still high on Evans and expect him to bounce back and take better care of the football in Monday's Canadian Thanksgiving showdown in Montreal. The RedBlacks fall into an excellent situation here as underdogs off a division loss have gone 67-32 when facing an opponent coming off an outright underdog win, as is the case with Montreal following its overtime victory in Hamilton last week. The Als crushed the RedBlacks the last time these two teams met back on September 3rd. Montreal gained 183 yards on the ground in that game but will be hard-pressed to repeat that performance without RB William Stanback on Monday (he's been ruled out due to injured ribs). QB Vernon Adams is playing through a nagging foot injury as well. Take Ottawa (10*). | |||||||
10-10-21 | 49ers +5.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 10-17 | Loss | -103 | 33 h 57 m | Show |
NFC West Game of the Year. My selection is on San Francisco plus the points over Arizona at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I love the way this one sets up for the 49ers as they look to bounce back from consecutive home losses against the Packers and Seahawks while facing a Cardinals squad that is coming off a monumental beatdown of the Rams, on the road no less, last week. As good as the Cardinals have been, I don't find them to be all that intimidating of a team to bet against simply due to the leaky nature of their defense. The fact that Arizona is allowing 5.2 yards per rush this season sets the Niners up well in this spot, even with San Francisco still banged-up at the running back position. Of course, the big news here is that Trey Lance is expected to get his first start for San Francisco, representing a major upgrade over Jimmy Garoppolo in my opinion. Only six teams have been flamed for more quarterback rushing yards than the Cards this season, which really helps open up the playbook for dual-threat Lance in this spot. Note that the 49ers have averaged 28.5 points per game and outscored opponents by an average margin of 4.7 points the last 10 times they've played on the road off an upset loss against a division opponent, as is the case here. They've gone an impressive 16-5 ATS the last 21 times they've come off an outright loss against a division opponent as a favorite, outscoring the opposition by eight points on average in that situation. The Cards are certainly not a trustworthy home favorite, having gone 1-8 ATS in that spot over the last 2+ seasons, actually getting outscored by 1.9 points on average. Take San Francisco (10*). | |||||||
10-10-21 | 49ers v. Cardinals OVER 48 | Top | 10-17 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 37 m | Show |
NFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between San Francisco and Arizona at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I'm expecting another shootout as the Cardinals return home off a huge win over the Rams to host another division foe, the 49ers, on Sunday afternoon in Glendale. This total has actually dropped since opening, a curious move considering the absence of Jimmy G. actually leads me to upgrade the Niners offense with rookie Trey Lance at the helm. Lance has had enough reps with the ones both in the preseason and in limited work during the regular season to leave me confident with him running the offense against a very beatable Cardinals defense on Sunday afternoon. Keep in mind, only six teams have given up more rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks than Arizona this season. In general, the Cards haven't been able to stop opposing running games, giving up well north of five yards per rush. Of course, we know that the Cards can sling it with QB Kyler Murray turning in an MVP caliber season so far. There's little reason to expect Arizona to slow down offensively in this one with the 49ers once again proving to be an overrated defensive squad due to injuries and otherwise. Note that the 'over' has gone 9-1 the last 10 times the 49ers have played on the road after getting upset as a home favorite against a division opponent, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 52.3 points. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-10-21 | Rays v. Red Sox OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
ALDS Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Boston at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. We saw a whopping 20 runs scored in Game 2 of this series on Friday and I expect to see plenty of offense again in Game 3 on Sunday. Note that the 'over' has gone 23-13 with the Rays playing on the road against division opponents this season with those games averaging 11.3 total runs. Meanwhile, the 'over' has gone 16-5 after the Red Sox score 10 runs or more in a game over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of 11.5 runs scored. Drew Rasmussen will get the start for the Rays. He'll inexplicably be facing the Red Sox for the fourth time this season. While he's pitched well against them, you have to wonder if at some point Boston begins to figure him out. Note that he has posted an awful 50.7% hard-hit ball percentage and 91.2 mph exit velocity off opposing bats this season. With Rasmussen averaging just over four innings per start we should see plenty of a Rays bullpen that owns a collective 4.29 ERA and 1.28 WHIP on the road this season. Red Sox starter Nathan Eovaldi has arguably been the team's most reliable starter this season. However, here he'll be facing the Rays for the fifth time this season. Note that his previous four starts against them have totaled 11, 14, 28 and 3 runs. The Red Sox bullpen has recorded a collective 4.26 ERA and 1.38 WHIP at home this season. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-10-21 | Rays +1.5 v. Red Sox | 4-6 | Loss | -200 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay +1.5 runs over Boston at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. This line isn't likely to last long as the Rays may very well flip to the favorite here on Sunday. While it's available, we'll take advantage, however (it should still be available as an alternate run-line regardless). Note that Red Sox starter Nathan Eovaldi has delivered wins in each of his last two starts, with both of those victories coming by two runs or more. He's only managed to post a three-game streak of that nature once this season, and that came in a stretch that saw him face the lowly Rangers and Indians (twice). Note that Boston is just 14-20 after winning four of its last five games this season, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 0.7 runs in that spot. The Rays have feasted in day games this season, going 41-20 and outscoring opponents by an average margin of 2.2 runs. They're also 52-26 against division opponents, outscoring the opposition by 1.7 runs on average. Take Tampa Bay +1.5 runs (4*). | |||||||
10-10-21 | Bears v. Raiders OVER 45 | 20-9 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Las Vegas at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. Few were paying much attention but we finally saw some signs of life from the Bears offense in last Sunday's much-needed bounce-back win over the Lions. I expect to see further progression from rookie QB Justin Fields and the Chicago offense in this one. While the Raiders pass rush has been terrific, I still have my questions about the secondary and I'm confident that Fields can buy enough time in and out of the pocket to find his targets down field for some big plays through the air in this one. Meanwhile, the Bears pass defense got exposed in its lone previous indoor game on the fast track at So-Fi Stadium back in Week 1, allowing Matt Stafford to go off for 20-of-26 passing for 312 yards. While the Raiders aren't the Rams, I do think we'll see Derek Carr make a concerted effort to push the ball down the field more than we saw in Monday's snoozer against the Chargers. There's little reason for the Raiders to bang their heads against the wall trying to run the football against a stout Bears run defense here and it's worth noting that Las Vegas has aired it out a combined 99 times in its two previous home games, albeit boosted by overtime in both of those games. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
10-10-21 | Browns v. Chargers -2 | 42-47 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Cleveland at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I think the Browns would have been well-advised to perhaps shut QB Baker Mayfield down for a game or two (he's dealing with an injury to his non-throwing shoulder) given how out of sorts he appeared in last week's 14-7 escape against the disjointed Vikings in Minnesota. Now he'll be going against a much tougher defense, and doing so with a cluster of injuries on his offensive line. On a positive note, the Browns run-centric offense will be going up against a very beatable Los Angeles run defense here (that allows over five yards per rush). However, given the fact I project the Browns to be playing from behind in this one and not well-positioned to pound away on the ground, I'm not sure that will matter all that much. I still don't believe we've seen the best of the Chargers offense yet. That's saying something as they enter this one off a string of clean, efficient performances. QB Justin Herbert faces a tough test here, but we know the Browns defense is beatable based on what we saw earlier in this season when they were blow-torched by Patrick Mahomes and then by an anemic Texans offense guided by Tyrod Taylor and Davis Mills. This will be Cleveland's most difficult defensive matchup since Week 1 against Kansas City. Strong starts have been commonplace for the Browns in recent years but it's worth noting that they've gone a miserable 18-37 ATS in their last 55 games between Weeks 5 and 9, outscored by 9.2 points on average. Take Los Angeles (9*). | |||||||
10-10-21 | Browns v. Chargers OVER 46 | 42-47 | Win | 100 | 7 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. This total has dropped considerably from the look-ahead number of 50.5, too much so in my opinion. Yes, Browns QB Baker Mayfield looked very uncomfortable in last week's ugly 14-7 win in Minnesota as he continues to battle through an injury to his non-throwing shoulder. With that being said, Cleveland's offense is generally run-heavy and here they draw a Chargers defense that has allowed north of five yards per rush this season. The Browns are known for their vaunted defense but I expect that unit to get exposed here. Keep in mind, Cleveland's last three games have come against the Texans, Bears and Vikings - all three teams have issues on offense, and struggled to contain the Browns tremendous pass rush. I don't expect the Chargers to have that problem here as they boast a much-improved offensive line that has done an excellent job of keeping QB Justin Herbert clean this season. Herbert and his receiving corps has a considerable advantage against a very beatable Browns pass defense that hasn't been truly tested since getting owned by Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs back in Week 1 (remember, even the Texans with Tyrod Taylor and Davis Mills padded their offensive stats against this defense in Week 2). Given the fact that both teams are coming off low-scoring results last week and the Chargers have actually yet to record an 'over' this season, I believe we're dealing with a total that's lower than it should be in this AFC showdown. Take the over (7*). | |||||||
10-10-21 | Packers v. Bengals OVER 50.5 | 25-22 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Green Bay and Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'under' in the Packers double-digit yawner of a win over the Steelers last Sunday. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'over' as Green Bay heads to Cincinnati to face the upstart Bengals. Green Bay essentially could have named its score against Pittsburgh last week but elected to call off the dogs on offense in the second half after building a big lead and realizing Pittsburgh's utter inability to mount an offensive attack. I fully expect the Packers offense to get rolling again in this matchup, even against a better-than-expected Cincinnati defense. The Bengals defense has certainly benefited from the slate of quarterbacks it has faced - a list that includes Kirk Cousins, Andy Dalton/Justin Fields, Ben Roethlisberger and still-struggling first overall draft pick Trevor Lawrence. This will clearly be the Bengals toughest test to date against Aaron Rodgers and the red hot Packers offense. On the flip side, we've seen Cincinnati begin to open up the passing playbook a little more for sophomore starter Joe Burrow as he's more than proven that he's healthy after last season's devastating injury. Burrow catches a break here with the Packers missing arguably their top defender, CB Jaire Alexander. With RB Joe Mixon dealing with a nagging ankle injury, Burrow will likely be asked to shoulder more of the load in this one and I'm confident he can find some success going over the top with his excellent receiving corps. Take the over (9*). | |||||||
10-09-21 | Calgary v. Saskatchewan OVER 44.5 | 22-19 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Calgary and Saskatchewan at 7 pm et on Saturday. We saw a low-scoring game between these two teams last week as the Stamps prevailed by a 23-17 score. Now we're dealing with a lower posted total and I believe it will prove too low on Saturday night. Note that the Stamps threw the football only 26 times for 184 yards in last week's victory. That had everything to do with game script as they jumped ahead by two touchdowns early and cruised the rest of the way. With the scene shifting to Regina on Saturday I'm certainly anticipating a stronger performance from the Riders offense. They've attempted at least 30 passes in all seven games this season and had scored 30+ points in consecutive games prior to last week's dismal effort. Note that the 'over' has gone 23-7 the last 30 times the Riders have played at home coming off a loss by seven points or less against a division opponent, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of 55.9 points. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-09-21 | Hurricanes v. Predators -175 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Nashville over Carolina at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. It looks like the Predators will be going with close to their expected regular season roster on Saturday afternoon for their preseason finale. Meanwhile, the Canes will be sitting the majority of their regulars. The price certainly warrants such a situation, although I feel the number could have been even higher, given how well the Preds have been playing during their exhibition slate to begin with. After opening with consecutive losses to the Panthers we've seen Nashville reel off three straight wins, including a 3-2 victory over these same Canes earlier this week. Carolina is content with what it has seen from its core players, and there aren't a lot of open spots on the roster so I'm not anticipating a peak performance from it here. Take Nashville (5*). | |||||||
10-09-21 | Connecticut v. UMass +3 | Top | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 27 h 9 m | Show |
CFB Independents Game of the Year. My selection is on Massachusetts plus the points over Connecticut at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I'm actually surprised we've seen this line flip since opening with Connecticut now favored in advance of Saturday's 'toilet bowl' matchup between two of the country's worst FBS teams. I won't spend much time waxing on about how impressive UMass is. That's simply not the case. However, I do feel that the Minutemen are further along in their progression back to respectability than UConn, which was of course forced to cancel its entire 2020 season. With this being a rivalry game, you can be sure the UMass players that were on board for 2019's beatdown at the hands of the Huskies haven't forgotten about it. This is the perfect opportunity to gain an ounce of revenge given the state of UConn. We actually won with the Huskies in last week's narrow loss against lowly Vanderbilt. They were catching far too many points in that one - I wasn't one bit surprised that they were competitive, riding high off a near-miss against Wyoming the week previous. Here, however, I expect to see somewhat of a letdown. UMass has faced a brutal early season schedule, going up against Pitt and Coastal Carolina on the road and Boston College, Eastern Michigan and Toledo at home. Let's face it, none of those games were winnable. I will give credit to the Minutemen for showing signs of life offensively, putting up 28 points in consecutive weeks against BC and EMU earlier in the season. After getting shut down by CCU and Toledo over the last two weeks, I'm confident they can get back on track offensively against a toothless UConn defense. Note that the Huskies are down to their third-string quarterback in Steven Krajewski. He caught Vandy a little flat-footed in last week's game but won't be so fortunate here as the Minutemen have some game film to break down. Not only are they deep into the QB depth chart but the Huskies are also dealing with somewhat of a Covid-19 breakout on the offensive line. It remains to be seen who will be good to go for Saturday's contest. Take Massachusetts (10*). | |||||||
10-09-21 | Wake Forest v. Syracuse UNDER 59 | Top | 40-37 | Loss | -113 | 26 h 51 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Wake Forest and Syracuse at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the 'under' in Wake Forest's wild 37-34 win over Louisville but it's certainly worth noting that were it not for an unthinkable defensive breakdown from the Demon Deacons that allowed a 70+ yard touchdown completion in the final minutes, we likely would have cashed that ticket. It was not a good game as a whole for the Wake defense but I do see this as a fine bounce-back spot against an inconsistent Syracuse offense on Saturday. On the flip side of that, the Demon Deacons have now scored 35 points or more in five straight games. As good as their offense is, I don't believe that trend is sustainable. While the Orange are coming off a wild, high-scoring shootout of their own at Florida State last week, I don't believe that's their preferred type of game. Note that their two previous home games against FBS opposition totaled just 24 and 45 points against Rutgers and Liberty, respectively. I still have my doubts as to whether the Syracuse offense can match last week's production against a tougher opponent here, even with the benefit of playing at home. When these two teams met last Halloween we saw an almost identical posted total. Wake ended up winning that game in blowout fashion, 38-14, easily staying 'under' the total we're dealing with here. Syracuse will be looking to do a much better job of keeping its offense on the field and controlling the time of possession here after Wake dominated in that department in last year's meeting to the tune of a 36:14 to 23:46 edge. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-09-21 | Virginia v. Louisville -2.5 | 34-33 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Louisville minus the points over Virginia at 3 pm et on Saturday. We faded the Cardinals last week and missed the mark as they gave Wake Forest everything it could handle, away from home no less, ultimately losing on a last-second field goal. Here, the Cardinals draw a more favorable matchup back at home as they look to bounce back against an up-and-down Virginia team that is coming off a two-point win in Miami last week. The Cavaliers just as easily could have lost that game but the Canes missed a last-second field goal that would have secured the win. Don't be fooled by that narrow win, Virginia isn't playing particularly well right now, with just one victory in its last three games, allowing a whopping 124 points over that stretch. Now the Cavaliers have to face a Louisville offense that has really gotten rolling after a slow start to the season. Cards QB Malik Cunningham entered the season with high expectations and lately he's been delivering, both with his arm and his legs. While I still have questions about the Cardinals defense, I believe this is a matchup they can handle, especially after limiting Wake Forest QB Sam Hartman to just 23-of-40 passing in last Saturday's game. These two teams have met in each of the last two seasons with the home side winning on both occasions. Louisville's ground attack was dominant in those two games, racking up 544 rushing yards. Allowing five yards per rush this season, the Cavs don't appear well-positioned to slow the Cardinals here. Take Louisville (9*). | |||||||
10-09-21 | Arkansas v. Ole Miss -5 | 51-52 | Loss | -111 | 50 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Mississippi minus the points over Arkansas at 12 noon et on Saturday. I love the way this one sets up as a bounce-back spot for Ole Miss as it returns home licking its wounds off a blowout loss at Alabama while Arkansas stays on the road after getting crushed at Georgia. I don't think there's any question, there was a bit of 'smoke and mirrors' involved in Arkansas' perfect 4-0 start to the season. We certainly saw the Hogs weren't ready for primetime in last week's rout at the hands of the Bulldogs. While there was no real shame in losing to a team as good as Georgia, it was the way Arkansas got dominated that was concerning. Yes, Ole Miss got blown out as well but at least it was able to show some push-back, scoring 21 points in a three-touchdown loss. The Rebels should be able to get right back on track here as they play extremely fast and have the potential to overwhelm a Razorbacks offense that simply isn't built to play from behind. Note that Arkansas has yet to complete more than 14 passes in a game this season. The Hogs rely heavily on their ground attack but the Rebels have proven to be fairly stout against the run. Even in last week's game against mighty Alabama, with game script favoring the Crimson Tide running wild over the course of the afternoon, Ole Miss still allowed just a shade north of four yards per rush. Here, we'll back the Rebels noting that they've gone 25-10 ATS the last 35 times they've come off consecutive games in which they forced less than two turnovers, as is the case here, having outscored the opposition by an average margin of 7.4 points. Also note that Arkansas has averaged just 17.2 points per game, outscored by 8.5 points on average, the last 15 times it has come off a road loss by 28 points or more. Take Ole Miss (10*). | |||||||
10-08-21 | Stanford v. Arizona State -12.5 | Top | 10-28 | Win | 100 | 16 h 7 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Arizona State minus the points over Stanford at 10:30 pm et on Friday. I believe this game has blowout potential as Arizona State is rolling again off consecutive lopsided wins over Colorado and UCLA. Stanford is fresh off an emotional, come-from-behind overtime win over Oregon. Dealing with a number of key injuries and playing on the road on a short week, I don't see this as a favorable spot for the Cardinal. It's likely we'll see Stanford play from behind for much of the night and while they did manage to come back against Oregon last week, they would be playing with fire attempting to do so again here. That's because the Cardinal passing attack isn't built to bomb away. Stanford has completed 20 passes or fewer in each of its last four games since opening the season with 23 pass completions in a blowout loss against Kansas State (the Cardinal threw for just 194 yards in that game). Note that Stanford is losing the time of possession battle by an average of well north of three minutes, while averaging just 4.2 yards per rush this season. By contrast, the Sun Devils absolutely have the ability to salt this game away with a ground attack that averages 5.5 yards per rush this season. While the Sun Devils offense gets a lot of the attention, their experienced, talented defense has played exceptionally well, allowing just 3.6 yards per rush while not allowing a single opponent to throw for more than 235 yards. Note that Stanford is allowing 39.3 points per game when playing as a road underdog over the last three seasons. Take Arizona State (10*). | |||||||
10-08-21 | Edmonton Elks v. Winnipeg UNDER 48.5 | Top | 3-30 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
CFL West Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Edmonton and Winnipeg at 8:30 pm et on Friday. The Elks got blasted against the RedBlacks of all teams last week but they'll aim to get back on track here with QB Trevor Harris returning to the field. The argument could be made that Edmonton essentially 'punted' that midweek game in Ottawa, knowing Harris would be back on the field for this division game against the Blue Bombers. Regardless, I do expect the Elks to show up with a much stronger effort here. Having Harris back should allow the offense to get back in rhythm and give the defense a break by staying on the field for extended stretches. With that being said, I'm not convinced we'll see the Elks bust out on the scoreboard against arguably the league's best defense in Winnipeg. The Blue Bombers are coming off three straight 30+ point performances but I wouldn't count on that continuing tonight. This is a team that's built on the strength of its defense. Prior to its most recent three-game stretch it had been held to 23 points or less in its first four games this season. I still see QB Zach Collaros as more of a 'game manager' than anything else at this stage of his career. He threw the football 34 times in last week's blowout win over the Lions but I'm not sure we'll see such an aggressive offensive gameplan against a tougher defensive opponent here. Note that the 'under' has gone 16-4 the last 20 times the Elks have allowed 34+ points in consecutive games, with that situation producing an average total of just 43.1 points. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 18-4 the last 22 times the Bombers have come off three or more consecutive wins, as is the case here, with that spot leading to a total of just 44.7 points on average. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-08-21 | Braves +1.5 v. Brewers | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta +1.5 runs over Milwaukee at 4:35 pm et on Friday. I'll grab the insurance run with the Braves in this NLDS opener on Friday afternoon. Atlanta checks in a solid 29-15 over its last 44 road games, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 2.2 runs. Here, the Braves are also in a favorable situation that has gone 23-7 over the last two seasons as they revenge a loss against an opponent in which they scored one run or less, outscoring opponents by a whopping 3.4 runs on average in that spot. Braves starter Charlie Morton has faced the Brewers just once over the last five seasons, but that start came back in August as he allowed only two earned runs over six innings. Meanwhile, Brewers starter Corbin Burnes turned in an outstanding regular season but his lone start against Atlanta didn't go well at all as he was tagged for five earned runs and lasted only four innings. Interestingly, the Brewers bullpen has struggled in day games all season, recording a collective 5.04 ERA and 1.49 WHIP with only 20 saves converted compared to 16 blown. Take Atlanta +1.5 runs (5*). | |||||||
10-07-21 | Rams -132 v. Seahawks | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles first half moneyline over Seattle at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. We actually won with the Seahawks in the first half in Sunday's much-needed road win over the 49ers. I won't hesitate to switch gears and fade the 'Hawks in this spot. The Rams got caught flat-footed in a mistake-laden loss to the Cardinals at home this past Sunday. I think they'll benefit from getting right back at it on a short week and the fact they're going up against a division opponent here on Thursday, as they look to quickly regroup and put together a much cleaner performance. They're set up nicely in the first half of this one, noting that under head coach Sean McVay, the Rams have posted a perfect 9-0 ATS mark in the first half when playing on the road off a loss, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 10.0 points. Keep in mind, we're only talking about the first half so that's a considerable margin. They're also 7-0 ATS against the first half line under McVay when playing on the road after an upset loss as a favorite, outscoring the opposition by 5.7 points on average in that spot. Keep in mind, these teams met three times last season, including a playoff matchup, and the road team didn't trail at the half in any of those contests. In the two games played here in Seattle, the Rams hung tough in the first half despite having a much weaker offense with QB Jared Goff at the helm (they completed just 36-of-68 passes in those two games). Here, Los Angeles catches Seattle dealing with key injuries on both sides of the football. RB Chris Carson is questionable to play after missing practice all week. WR Tyler Lockett will be good to go but isn't 100% healthy due to a nagging hip injury. DEs Carlos Dunlap and Darrell Taylor are both dealing with injuries as well. While it's usually the road team that is simply looking to 'weather the storm' early in the game, I think the case can be made that it will be the home side attempting to do so here as the Rams are sure to come out aggressively off last Sunday's disappointing division loss. Take Los Angeles first half moneyline (8*). | |||||||
10-07-21 | Avalanche v. Stars -120 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas over Colorado at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. While Dallas is electing to go with a fairly similar lineup to the one we'll likely see in its season-opener next week, Colorado is leaving its stars home for this Thursday night matchup. Not surprisingly, we've seen the price shift with that news, but I still think we're being offered a fair price with a Stars squad that has collected at least a point in four of five preseason games to date. Dallas can certainly enter the regular season with a good feeling should it secure a third straight victory here on Thursday night (the Stars do still have one preseason game remaining on Saturday night in Colorado - we'll likely see their 'B' squad for that contest). The Avs meanwhile have put little stock in the preseason, or so it seems, losing three of their four games. That includes a 7-4 defeat at home against Vegas two nights ago, a game in which Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen, among others, played significant minutes. Neither of those players traveled to Dallas for this one. Take Dallas (6*). | |||||||
10-07-21 | Coastal Carolina -19 v. Arkansas State | Top | 52-20 | Win | 100 | 60 h 15 m | Show |
Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Coastal Carolina minus the points at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. Coastal Carolina is a bonafide juggernaut and I look for it to keep rolling against Arkansas State on Thursday night. The Red Wolves have fallen on hard times, losing 11 of 15 games since the start of last season. Keep in mind, this is a program that lost no more than five games in eight of nine seasons between 2011 and 2019. The offense remains explosive at times, however I don't like the dual quarterback situation between James Blackman and Layne Hatcher. Both are solid in their own right but sharing time just doesn't seem like the answer, even if head coach Butch Jones seems bent on it continuing. Defensively, Arkansas State has been a mess, struggling to improve after a disastrous 2020 season. The Red Wolves simply don't have the personnel in place to stop the likes of the Chanticleers. Coastal Carolina has done a tremendous job of mixing up tempo on offense, essentially toying with the majority of the defenses it has faced this season. QB Grayson McCall turned his ankle in last week's win over Louisiana-Monroe but all indications are that he'll be good to go for this one and was lifted from last Saturday's game as a precaution only. With an offense that can score at will and an underrated defense that isn't simply along for the ride, I'm confident the Chanticleers can keep the back door firmly closed in this one. Take Coastal Carolina (10*). | |||||||
10-07-21 | Houston v. Tulane +7 | 40-22 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tulane plus the points over Houston at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. These teams are certainly heading in opposite directions with Houston sitting at 4-1 and Tulane stuck at 1-4. All is not lost for the Green Wave, however. There are still seven games remaining on the schedule with the toughest matchup (against Cincinnati) coming at home. This is the same Tulane squad that opened the season with a narrow five-point loss on the road against Oklahoma. Turnovers have been a major problem as the Green Wave have coughed up the football eight times over their last two games. I do think that's something they can clean up here, however, and believe we're being given a generous helping of points with the home underdog. Note that the Green Wave are a perfect 7-0 ATS when coming off a road loss against a conference opponent over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 9.9 points on average in that spot. Under head coach Willie Fritz, Tulane has outscored the opposition by an average margin of 5.8 points after losing four of its last five games, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Houston is just 2-9 ATS under head coach Dana Holgorsen when coming off an ATS victory, outscored by 3.6 points on average in that situation. I'll also note that the Green Wave have posted an impressive 6-0 ATS mark, outscoring opponents by 4.6 point son average, under Fritz when facing opponents that average 34 or more points per game, as is the case with Houston here. Take Tulane (9*). | |||||||
10-06-21 | Cardinals +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
MLB Game of the Week. My selection is on St. Louis +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. This precise situation is essentially the reason the Dodgers brought in Max Scherzer prior to the trade deadline and I certainly understand why they're such a heavy favorite in this contest. But given how well the Cardinals played down the stretch I certainly don't expect to see them back down from the massive challenge at hand on Wednesday. While I won't call for the outright upset, I will back the Cards with an insurance run at a very reasonable price. Note that the Dodgers enter this game having won five consecutive contests by two runs or more. Their longest such streak this season was six games - a feat they accomplished only once, back in early April. Also consider that Los Angeles checks in 15-19 after posting consecutive wins by four runs or more over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of just 0.4 runs in that situation. As for the Cards, they're a solid 13-6 when playing on the road off consecutive losses over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.7 runs on average in that spot. The Dodgers have won each of Max Scherzer's last five starts by two runs or more - the longest such streak of the season for Mad Max. His previous high was four straight team wins by two runs or more, which was followed up by a narrow 4-3 win over the Mets in his next start back on August 21st. Take St. Louis +1.5 runs (10*). | |||||||
10-06-21 | Flames v. Jets -130 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Winnipeg over Calgary at 8 pm et on Wednesday. The Jets didn't have their 'A' squad for Sunday's game in Vancouver and fell by a 3-2 score. Here, I expect them to ice a stronger lineup and bounce back from consecutive losses against the Flames. Calgary had won two games in a row before falling by a 4-3 score against Edmonton on Monday. The Flames did send a quality lineup to the ice for that rivalry tilt against the Oilers but I wouldn't count on a similar roster here. Note that this is the first of a home-and-home set to close out the preseason for these two western Canadian squads. Take Winnipeg (6*). | |||||||
10-06-21 | Capitals v. Bruins OVER 6 | 4-3 | Win | 115 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Boston at 7 pm et on Wednesday. We'll make this play now as the total appears to be on the move, noting that I would still recommend a play at '6'. Both teams sent their 'B' squads to the ice last time out. Here, as the two teams look to bounce back (Washington has lost all four preseason games while Boston has lost its last two). The Caps do still have one more preseason game to go on Friday night at home against Philadelphia before opening the regular season next Wednesday against the Rangers. As for the Bruins, this game will put a wrap on their preseason schedule. I fully expect them to push the pace in this one but the Caps will certainly be along for the ride. Take the over (6*). | |||||||
10-05-21 | Yankees v. Red Sox UNDER 8 | Top | 2-6 | Push | 0 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Boston at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. Most will be anticipating a high-scoring affair between these two homer-happy rivals at hitter-friendly Fenway Park on Tuesday night. I don't see it playing out that way, however. Tonight's starters Gerrit Cole and Nathan Eovaldi actually just matched up on September 24th. That game finished 8-3 in favor of New York. The stakes are obviously even higher now with this being a 'win or go home' Wild Card showdown and I expect a more tightly-contested affair. Cole struggled down the stretch but this will be the first time he's had the benefit of pitching on a full five days' rest since September 14th against Baltimore. He gave up just one earned run in five innings in that start. Likewise for Eovaldi. He, however, pitched well in his most recent start, tossing six shutout innings against the Orioles. He checks in sporting a 1.11 WHIP in 19 home starts this season. It will obviously be 'all hands on deck' when it comes to the two bullpens following yesterday's off-day. In fact, both teams have had three off days since September 23rd, setting them up well for Tuesday's all-important contest. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-05-21 | Flyers v. Islanders -159 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Islanders lost their last game as a -200 favorite by way of overtime on Saturday night here at home against New Jersey. They're in a more favorable spot here, catching the Flyers playing on the second of back-to-back nights off an overtime win, yet we're being asked to lay a shorter price. All indications are that we'll see New York's 'A' squad for this contest, or as close to that as we can expect at this stage of the preseason. The same isn't likely to be the case for the Flyers, who starter Carter Hart in goal last night (he's been excellent in two preseason games) and had the likes of Sean Couturier, Ivan Provorov, Travis Konecny, James Van Riemsdyk - the list goes on - play significant minutes. Take New York (6*). | |||||||
10-04-21 | Raiders v. Chargers OVER 51.5 | Top | 14-28 | Loss | -101 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
MNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Las Vegas and Los Angeles at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I get it. Both of these teams scored 30+ points last week and now clash in a division game on Monday Night Football, leading many to back the 'under' as the so-called 'sharp' play. I believe this one is being totaled as a potential shootout for good reason, however, and will stick with what's been working and play the 'over' on MNF. The Raiders are playing with house money at this point. Most expected they would be 1-2 or possibly 2-1 at best entering Week 4 but here they are sitting atop the AFC West with a flawless 3-0 record. I don't expect them to suddenly get tentative here. While their defense has held up better than most anticipated, I'm not all that high on that unit. Their offense on the other hand has impressed me and I believe they can find continued success, even in this tough road matchup on Monday. Note that opponents have gashed the Chargers defense in two particular areas this season, running the football and on tight end targets. Los Angeles checks in allowing well north of five yards per rush and I believe that sets up the Raiders underrated ground attack well in this one. It's been a bit of a 'plug-and-play' situation in the backfield for Las Vegas this season, with Peyton Barber being the most recent 'next man up'. Regardless who gets the lion's share of the carries on Monday night, I think the Raiders can gash the Chargers run defense. Meanwhile, Las Vegas obviously has one of the best in the business at tight end in Darren Waller. He's keeping opposing defensive coordinators up at night trying to come up with schemes to defend him. I mentioned I'm not all that high on the Raiders defense. I believe this is a spot where they could very well get flamed by an ascending Chargers offense. Los Angeles QB Justin Herbert is absolutely locked in right now, showing incredible chemistry with WR Mike Williams. Only six other teams have given up more catches to wide receivers than the Raiders and I expect to see the Chargers wideouts make the most of their opportunities in this one. Of course, the Las Vegas run defense hasn't been all that imposing in the early going, opening the door for a big night from Chargers do-it-all RB Austin Ekeler as well. It's a pick-your-poison type of matchup for the Raiders defense that appeared to wear down over the course of the game against an otherwise punchless Dolphins offense last Sunday. This game represents a big step up in class for the Raiders 'D' after going against Pittsburgh and Miami in consecutive weeks. A Monday night 'under' result is certainly coming but I don't think this is the spot. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-03-21 | Steelers v. Packers UNDER 45 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
NFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Green Bay at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. Sure, I'd like to (and expected to) be working with a higher posted total in this one, but I still believe there's considerable value in backing the 'under' with the Packers coming off consecutive 'over' results. The Steelers offense is arguably the most predictable in the entire league right now and there's really nowhere for them to turn for answers at this point. Big Ben's time as a useful starting quarterback in the NFL is over, and I don't believe that's a knee-jerk reaction at all. Injuries and general wear-and-tear have taken their toll over the years and his decision-making has certainly left a lot to be desired in recent years. Here, with WR Chase Claypool ruled out and JuJu Smith-Schuster and Diontae Johnson dealing with nagging injuries, we can expect RB Najee Harris to be the focal point of the offense as the Steelers try to effectively shorten this contest and play keep-away from Aaron Rodgers and the explosive Packers offense. On a positive note for Pittsburgh, it is expected to have T.J. Watt back from injury. Green Bay has scored 30 or more points in consecutive wins over the Lions and 49ers. As good as the Packers offense is, an extended run of 30+ point performances certainly isn't sustainable. Note that the 'under' is 28-12 with the Steelers playing on the road off a home loss with those games totaling an average of 38.8 points. Better still, the 'under' is 21-8 when Pittsburgh plays on the road off an outright loss as a home favorite with that spot producing an average of 38.4 total points. Also note that the Steelers have given up just 15.4 points per game the last 23 times they've come off a double-digit loss against a division opponent, as is the case here, with that situation resulting in an average total of 39.2 points. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-03-21 | Seahawks +2.5 v. 49ers | Top | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 31 h 15 m | Show |
NFL First Half Game of the Year. My selection is on Seattle plus the points first half over San Francisco at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. We missed with the Seahawks last week in Minnesota as they got off to a strong start but couldn't hold off a desperate Vikings squad in an eventual lopsided loss. Here, I do expect Seattle to bounce back against the division-rival 49ers. However, I don't like the prospect of the Niners making a potential switch at quarterback in the second half should Jimmy G. continue to struggle under center. So instead we'll back the Seahawks in the first half in a situation that has worked out very well over the years. Note that Seattle has gone an impressive 44-26 ATS in the first half the last 70 times it has come off an upset loss as a favorite in its previous game, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 3.7 points in that situation. Better still, the Seahawks are 23-9 ATS in the first half when coming off an upset loss as a road favorite, outscoring opponents by 5.4 points on average in that situation. I'm not as down on the Seahawks defense as most heading into this one. Yes, Seattle got ripped by a desperate Vikings offense that gameplanned very aggressively in last week's contest. I expect a different story to unfold here as the Seahawks are now the 'desperate' team coming off consecutive losses. Seattle owns numerous matchup edges on offense in this one, most notably with their passing attack as DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett (even if he is less than 100% healthy) should feast on a 49ers secondary that is dealing with a cluster of injuries. Defensively, Seattle won't have to deal with a monster tandem like Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson at wide receiver this week. Meanwhile, the Niners once-vaunted ground attack has been depleted due to injuries as well with Trey Sermon not looking like the explosive runner they had hoped for in his rookie campaign. Take Seattle first half (10*). | |||||||
10-03-21 | Texans v. Bills -17 | Top | 0-40 | Win | 100 | 48 h 5 m | Show |
AFC Non-Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'm not one bit afraid of the big number in this one. We've been along for the Bills ride the last couple of weeks, cashing with them in their rout of the Dolphins before hitting the 'over' in last week's blowout win over Washington. I fully expect them to make it three straight lopsided wins against the lowly and reeling Texans on Sunday. Houston was every bit as advertised (finally) last week against Carolina as awful play-calling combined with an inefficient rookie QB in Davis Mills combined to lead to an eventual blowout loss against the Panthers. This is a nightmarish matchup for the Texans on both sides of the football. While he's had a few extra days of preparation, I'm not sure that extra reps in practice are going to make a bit of difference for Mills as he has a subpar supporting cast. WR Brandin Cooks got off to a strong start this season but he'll likely be erased by standout Bills corner Tre'davious White in this one. Outside of Cooks there's little reason for optimism in the Houston offense. On the flip side, Bills QB Josh Allen silenced his critics in resounding fashion against Washington last Sunday and now draws an even more favorable matchup. Allen represents a considerable step up in class from the quarterbacks Houston has faced thus far - a slate that has included Trevor Lawrence (in his first NFL start - on the road no less), Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold. Allen figures to feast on an unimposing Texans defense with Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll likely to dial up another aggressive gameplan. We've still yet to see Bills WR Stefon Diggs truly explode this season but we've certainly seen glimpses in the last couple of weeks. I'm high on Diggs, but perhaps even higher on Buffalo's ancillary pass-catchers, including underrated TE Dawson Knox. What more can I say about this matchup, I expect the Bills to roll by three touchdowns plus. Take Buffalo (10*). | |||||||
10-02-21 | Connecticut +15.5 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 36 h 57 m | Show |
CFB Non-Conference Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Connecticut plus the points over Vanderbilt at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. This is absolutely a 'plug your nose and bet it' type of a play on Saturday night. I'm as surprised as you that I'm actually getting behind UConn after we successfully faded it in two out of three tries (the lone loss was a free play on the Huskies when they back-doored Army two weeks ago) already this season. I do like the progression I've seen from the Huskies, however, and certainly believe they can hang with another down-trodden program in Vanderbilt. As I mentioned, two weeks ago we saw UConn fall behind 42-0 before halftime at Army before outscoring the Black Knights 21-10 in the second half in an eventual back-door cover. The fact that the Huskies didn't quite in that game meant something and we saw some carry-over in last week's home game against a tough Wyoming squad as UConn jumped out to a 13-0 lead and ultimately hung tough for four quarters in a 24-22 loss. That was certainly an impressive performance on both sides of the football against a Cowboys squad that is a perfect 4-0 on the season. Now the Huskies get a stretch where they can potentially build some confidence, facing Vandy, UMass and Yale in consecutive weeks. Vandy does have a win to its credit this season but that came by just three points against an awful Colorado State squad. Since then, the Commodores have had their doors blown off in two games against Stanford and Georgia, outscored by a combined 103-23 margin. Note that they've scored just one touchdown in their last nine quarters of action, that coming in the final seconds of a game that was long decided against Stanford. The fact that Vandy somehow managed to give up 35 points in less than a quarter of action last week, even against a power program like Georgia, was telling. There are few redeeming qualities when it comes to either of these teams but I think we're seeing Vandy laying north of a touchdown simply due to the SEC vs. Independent angle. There's a chance that UConn can prove to be a 'tough out' over the remainder of the season and I'm willing to bet on that on Saturday. Take Connecticut (10*). | |||||||
10-02-21 | Indians v. Rangers +1.5 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas +1.5 runs over Cleveland at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. This one sets up well for the Rangers with the Indians coming in off consecutive wins. Note that Texas hasn't dropped consecutive games since a five-game losing streak from September 19th-23rd. The Indians check in a woeful 4-16 after scoring nine runs or more in a game this season, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 2.1 runs in that situation. Meanwhile, the Rangers are 9-2 when seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent where that team scored eight runs or more over the last three seasons, which is also the case here, outscoring opponents by 1.6 runs on average in that spot. Indians starter Triston McKenzie had a nice run but he's struggled over his last couple of outings, allowing 10 earned runs in just 7 1/3 innings. Take Texas +1.5 runs (7*). | |||||||
10-02-21 | Baylor +4 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 14-24 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 18 m | Show |
Big 12 Game of the Year. My selection is on Baylor plus the points over Oklahoma State at 7 pm et on Saturday. I'm starting to believe in Baylor. Two weeks ago we cashed with the Bears in their rout of lowly Kansas. While that was a game they were certainly expected to win, I liked the way they absolutely poured it on in the second half, scoring 31 unanswered points in a 45-7 rout. Last week, the Bears were involved in a game they weren't necessarily expected to win but gutted out a hard-fought 31-29 victory over then-14th ranked Iowa State. Now comes a very difficult test in Stillwater, noting that Oklahoma State rolled to a 42-3 victory when these two teams met last December. I think the Bears will be up for the challenge. While Oklahoma State deals with a number of key injuries on both sides of the football (defensive stars Tre Sterling and Trace Ford the most notable), Baylor enters this showdown relatively healthy. We've seen a number of players step up and take on big roles for the Bears this season. It starts with QB Gerry Bohanon, who was given the opportunity to start at the beginning of the season and has certainly made the most of it, seemingly getting better with each passing week. Bohanon has thrown for seven touchdowns while running for another four. He's yet to throw an interception but did fumble twice in last week's victory. Of course it helps to have a tremendous supporting cast. R.J. Sneed and Tyquan Thornton make up one of the top wide receiver tandems in the nations - an unappreciated tandem at that. Trestan Ebner was thought to be the 1-A back but he's actually taken a backseat to Abram Smith at times, who has three 118+ yard rushing performances with five touchdowns to his credit already this season. While the Bears are known for their explosive offense, it's their defense that impressed me most this season. This is a loaded unit that was expected to take a big step forward this season and it has. This is a manageable matchup given Oklahoma State has been held to 31 points or less in all four games this season and as I mentioned is missing a few key cogs due to injury on offense. We saw the Cowboys score three offensive touchdowns in the game's first 20 minutes last week against Kansas State but they were held to a single field goal the rest of the way. In fact, Oklahoma State hasn't scored a single second half point in its last two games. RB Jaylen Warren has been outstanding the last couple of weeks in particular but he's not better than Breece Hall, who the Bears dealt with against Iowa State last Saturday. Simply put, Baylor has the talent and depth up front and at the back-end to make life miserable for Cowboys QB Spencer Sanders on Saturday night. Provided the Bears don't get swallowed up by the sheer size and importance of this matchup, I believe they can hang for 60 minutes. Take Baylor (10*). | |||||||
10-02-21 | Montreal v. Hamilton OVER 48.5 | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
CFL East Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Montreal and Hamilton at 4 pm et on Saturday. We've been playing mostly 'unders' when it comes to CFL totals lately, and rightfully so as the league has certainly taken a low-scoring turn this season. Here, I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'over', however, as the desperate Als roll into Hamilton on the heels of consecutive losses. Montreal showed some positive signs in last week's 30-27 loss to the Argos. QB Vernon Adams Jr. completed 30-of-39 passes for nearly 400 yards through the air while RB William Stanback went off for 133 yards on the ground. I get the feeling we may see somewhat of a letdown from the Ti-Cats vaunted defense here after they held up so well, shouldering much of the load with QBs Dane Evans and Jeremiah Masoli sidelined. Masoli is back, along with WRs Bralon Addison and Brandon Banks and I can't help but feel we'll see the Hamilton defense breathe a sigh of relief and that perhaps opens the door for the Als offense in this spot. On the flip side, the Als defense hasn't been particularly good this season, especially against the pass. Hamilton QB Jeremiah Masoli probably could have returned for the team's most recent game as he had been practicing in the days leading up to this one. Now he's had ample time to get ready for the Als with the Ti-Cats having not played in a week-and-a-half. The most recent matchup between these two teams fizzled in the second half. In what I expect to be a more competitive affair on Saturday, I look for this one to find its way 'over' the reasonable total. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-02-21 | Syracuse v. Florida State -4.5 | 30-33 | Loss | -120 | 29 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Florida State minus the points over Syracuse at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. It's not easy to get behind the Seminoles these days as they enter Saturday's matchup with Syracuse sporting a winless 0-4 record. But how many games could we have expected them to win at this point? Three of their four losses have come against Notre Dame, Wake Forest and Louisville - three teams that have combined to post an 11-1 overall record this season. The other loss was a stunner for sure against FCS squad Jacksonville State. The 'Noles clearly got caught letting their guard down in that one, playing on a short week off an overtime loss against Notre Dame and leading by 10 points late in the fourth quarter before the Gamecocks came up with a pair of touchdowns. Nevertheless, the 'Noles continue on and with a tough date at North Carolina looming next week, a win is critical here against Syracuse. The Orange are off to a solid 3-1 start but I'm not all that high on them at this point. The schedule has had everything to do with Syracuse's strong start, noting that its three wins have come against an Ohio squad that is much worse than expected, FCS team Albany and Liberty. The loss came by double-digits at home against Rutgers. The Orange surprisingly went with Garrett Shrader at quarterback in last week's game against Liberty. Shrader is arguably a better runner than passer and is expected to get the start again here. Keep in mind, Florida State just faced one of the best running quarterbacks in the nation in Malik Cunningham of Louisville last week so the 'Noles will certainly be ready for Shrader. RB Sean Tucker has been the big difference-maker for the Orange so far this season - he's coming off a 169-yard rushing effort in last week's win over Liberty. He's risen to the occasion against the weaker squads on Syracuse's schedule but was bottled up for just 54 yards on 13 carries against Rutgers. Despite playing with negative game-script during its 0-4 start, Florida State has actually allowed just 132.3 rush yards per game this season. It's the pass that has hurt the 'Noles most but I'm not convinced that either Shrader or former starter Tommy DeVito are capable of taking advantage for the Orange. On the flip side, note that when teams have chosen to throw on the Orange they've found success to the tune of a 73.5% completion percentage. This sets up as a potential breakout game for Florida State QB McKenzie Milton. I also question whether the Syracuse defense will be able to contain underrated 'Noles RB Jashaun Corbin who has ran for 439 yards and three scores - good for a whopping 9.2 yards per rush through four games this season. The 'Noles are looking to take their frustrations out on someone and I believe the Orange fit the bill. Take Florida State (9*). | |||||||
10-02-21 | Louisville v. Wake Forest -6.5 | 34-37 | Loss | -120 | 28 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Wake Forest minus the points over Louisville at 12:30 pm et on Saturday. The Demon Deacons are off to a perfect 4-0 start but will face a tough test in the form of Louisville - a team that has had their number over the last couple of seasons - on Saturday afternoon in Winston-Salem. I expect Wake Forest to rise the occasion, however. This is a different Demon Deacons squad than we've seen in recent years, boasting a ton of talent and experience on both sides of the football. Wake has shown the ability to jump ahead and salt away games from there, which is precisely what we saw last week as it didn't allow another score after Virginia cut its lead to 27-17 with just over five minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. I believe the Deacs' can follow a similar script here, especially with Louisville losing the heart-and-soul of its defense, Monty Montgomery, to a season-ending knee injury. In last week's game in particular, Louisville's opponent Florida State didn't persist with its ground attack nearly enough in the early going, ultimately playing from behind the entire game. When it did decide to test the Cardinals front it found success, including a 75-yard touchdown run in the third quarter. As impressive as the Louisville offense has looked at times, it has also gone stagnant for periods. Last week it scored 31 first half points but then didn't score again in what turned out to be an eight-point win over aforementioned Florida State. There was a game against FCS squad Eastern Kentucky earlier this season where the Cardinals scored an offensive touchdown with just over four minutes remaining in the first quarter and then didn't find the end zone on offense again until there were just over five minutes left in the third quarter. I expect the Deacs' defensive athleticism to be a difference-maker in this one as they have the personnel to contain Cards dual-threat QB Malik Cunningham. I also won't discount the fact that Wake Forest has had an extra day of preparation having played last Friday night; it does matter as we flip the calendar over to October. Take Wake Forest (8*). | |||||||
10-02-21 | Louisville v. Wake Forest UNDER 63 | 34-37 | Loss | -107 | 27 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Louisville and Wake Forest at 12:30 pm et on Saturday. We've seen a pair of high-scoring games between these two teams over the last two seasons with Louisville prevailing in both. I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday, however. It's worth noting that Wake Forest has put up 35 points or more in four straight games to open the season. I went back over the last decade and didn't find a single other occurrence where the Demon Deacons accomplished that feat at any time during a season. They came close last year, scoring 35+ points in three straight games. In their next contest they won a low-scoring battle against Virginia Tech by a 23-16 score. I really like the way Wake has been able to salt away victories in the fourth quarter this season. That comes with an effective offensive line and potent rushing attack. Last week against Virginia, Wake didn't allow a single score from five minutes remaining in the third quarter on. Two weeks ago, the Deacs' held the Seminoles off the scoreboard for the entire second half. Louisville isn't running the same 'boom or bust' offense we've become accustomed to seeing in recent years. The Cards are content to move up and down the field in small chunks with lots of slants and out-reads, with a healthy dose of their ground attack led by dual-threat QB Malik Cunningham mixed in. I suspect the Deacs' will be content to keep everything in front of them in this one - I really like their speed and athleticism on defense, particularly at the linebacker position and with that in mind, I'm confident they can contain Cunningham for much of the afternoon on Saturday. The Cards would be wise to employ a similar gameplan to what we saw back in Week 1 against high-powered Ole Miss. That means playing 'keep away' while also limiting the type of plays that could allow the turnover-happy Wake defense to feast. The lofty total makes sense given how high-scoring the last two matchups between these two teams have been (I take last year's Louisville blowout win with a grain of salt as it came in the final week of the season after Wake Forest dealt with four cancellations due to Covid protocols), I simply feel it will prove too high in an ACC showdown with a lot at stake. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
10-01-21 | Iowa v. Maryland UNDER 46 | Top | 51-14 | Loss | -105 | 103 h 17 m | Show |
Big Ten Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Iowa and Maryland at 8 pm et on Friday. The 'under' is now a perfect 4-0 in games involving Iowa this season after last Saturday's closer than expected 24-14 win over Colorado State. The fact that the Hawkeyes trailed that game 14-7 at halftime may be concerning at first glance. However, a closer look shows that Iowa actually shut Colorado State out in the first, third and fourth quarters in that game. A 22-yard punt from the Hawkeyes deep in their own territory set up the Rams first touchdown drive - a drive they needed nine plays to turn into a touchdown despite starting from the Iowa 35-yard line. The Hawkeyes next offensive drive ended with an interception that the Rams returned all the way to the Iowa 23-yard line. Colorado State made good with a touchdown on that drive as well but that was it in terms of Rams scoring offense for the remainder of the game. You could argue that this will be Iowa's toughest test to date, although it did already go on the road and defeat rival Iowa State (which was ranked ninth in the country at the time) by a 27-17 score back on September 11th (we won with the 'under' in that game). That game reached 44 total points but did include a defensive fumble return for a touchdown. We've backed Maryland in each of the last two weeks, managing to split those plays thanks to last Saturday's rout of Kent State. The Terps offensive stats are somewhat skewed from playing FCS squad Howard (won 62-0) and Kent State and its 'FlashFast' offense that essentially served to give Maryland a number of extra possessions. While I do think the Terps can move the football against this tough Iowa defense, I'm not convinced they can end many drives with 7's on the board. Remember, back in Week 1 Maryland faced a tough home game against West Virginia and while it did put up 30 points, two touchdowns went for 60+ yards thanks to Mountaineers defensive breakdowns - something we're unlikely to see from the fundamentally-sound Hawkeyes defense here. On the flip side, the Terps can play some defense, noting that they've allowed just four touchdowns in their last 15 quarters of action, with one of those coming on a broken play offensive fumble return for a touchdown on the road against Illinois two weeks ago. Iowa has topped out at 34 points this season, and that performance came in a game in which they returned two interceptions for touchdowns against Indiana. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-30-21 | Virginia v. Miami-FL UNDER 62 | 30-28 | Win | 100 | 80 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Virginia and Miami at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'under' in Virginia's blowout loss to Wake Forest last Friday night but were admittedly fortunate to do so as the Cavaliers offered very little defensive resistance in a 37-17 loss. After getting dummied by the North Carolina and Wake Forest offenses over the last two weeks, I do look for a response from the Cavaliers here. As I've noted before this season, Virginia does boast plenty of talent and experience on the defensive side of the football, particularly at the back-end. It was the Cavaliers run defense that got gashed last Friday and I believe that had something to do with the Demon Deacons catching them off guard with a more run-heavy approach. Here, Virginia will catch a Miami team that is coming off a 69-point explosion but that came against FCS squad Central Connecticut State. The Hurricanes are in a bit of a state of flux right now with questions around whether QB D'Eriq King may have lost his starting job. King has been a general disappointment since joining the Canes last season and with freshman Tyler Van Dyke coming in and throwing for 270 yards and three touchdowns (and no interceptions) last Saturday, there's a good chance we'll see Van Dyke again here. Regardless who takes the majority of the snaps, I like the 'under'. Keep in mind, Van Dyke is still learning the offense and now will have to prepare on a short week. Virginia opened the season scoring 43, 42 and 39 points in its first three games. That had more to do with the level of opposition they faced (and game script in a wild, high-scoring affair against North Carolina) than anything else. This will be the Cavaliers toughest defensive test to date as they head on the road to take on a Canes defense that is better than it showed in early season losses to Alabama and Michigan State. While they did allow 38 points against Michigan State in their last relevant game, the Canes actually didn't give up a touchdown until the final three minutes of the first half in that one. It wasn't until late in the fourth quarter that things really unraveled as Spartans standout RB Kenneth Walker wore them down with over 170 yards on the ground. The Cavaliers aren't likely to pose the same type of challenge here. Note that last week against a beatable Wake Forest defense, Virginia didn't find the end zone until nearly three minutes into the third quarter. It wasn't able to lean much on its ground attack after falling behind early. I certainly don't think the Cavaliers want QB Brennan Armstrong throwing the football 59 times again in this one. The hope is that they'll have RB Wayne Taulapapa back from a concussion for this game, which would help them grind out longer, clock-churning drives in an effort to keep their overworked defense off the field and effectively shorten this game. Note that the 'under' is 36-16 with Miami having lost three of its last four games ATS, with those contests totaling an average of just 46.3 points. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 26-13 with Virginia coming off consecutive games where it lost the turnover battle, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of just 46.1 points. There's reason to believe a more conservative gameplan could serve the Cavaliers well as they try to win for the first time in three weeks. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-29-21 | Marlins v. Mets OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
MLB F5 Innings Total of the Month. My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Miami and New York at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a pair of relatively low-scoring seven-innings affairs between these two teams simply playing out the string yesterday. I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday, at least early on. Elieser Hernandez gets another start for the Marlins. He was tagged for three home runs in his most recent start and a pair of home runs the last time he faced the Mets. I suspect we'll see him nibbling the edges a little too much in this one and perhaps struggle to avoid walks, which have plagued him recently (seven walks in his last two starts spanning just 9 2/3 innings). Hernandez checks in with a 1.81 WHIP over his last three outings. Taijuan Walker will take the ball for New York. The wheels have come off for him down the stretch. He checks in having allowed 19 earned runs over his last four starts, covering a stretch of 17 1/3 innings. Like Hernandez, Walker has had a tough time keeping the ball in the park, allowing a whopping eight home runs over his last four outings and at least one home run in 10 of his last 11 starts. We'll play the first five innings only here, noting that the Mets bullpen in particular has been terrific lately, entering yesterday's double-header sporting a collective 2.96 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over their last seven games. Take the first five innings over (10*). | |||||||
09-28-21 | Edmonton Elks v. Ottawa OVER 44.5 | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Edmonton and Ottawa at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'under' in the RedBlacks 24-7 loss in awful weather conditions last week here in Ottawa. Conditions are expected to be a whole lot better tonight, and I believe this one sets up as a relatively high-scoring affair. The Elks will go with former Oklahoma State standout QB Taylor Cornelius for a second straight game with Trevor Harris still recovering from injury. Edmonton's offensive playbook didn't look a whole lot different with Cornelius under center last time out as he threw for 243 yards on 33 pass attemps while also adding 23 yards on the ground on a couple of rush attempts. That was against an elite Blue Bombers defense. Here, he'll be facing a RedBlacks defense that held up well in the first matchup between these two teams this season but that was back in Week 1. They've fallen apart since then. I like the fact that Cornelius didn't hesitate to throw the football down the field. The Elks top three receivers in that game against Winnipeg all had receptions of at least 20 yards. Ottawa will be going with a former college standout at quarterback for this one as well as Caleb Evans gets his first career CFL start. The fact is, he can't do much worse than Matt Nichols and Dominique Davis. Note that Evans owns the fifth-most total yards in Sun Belt Conference history. He ranks 11th in the Sun Belt in career touchdown passes. I believe his dual-threat capability makes him a good fit in the CFL. Despite game script going the other way with two losses in their last three games, the Elks check in having allowed at least 250 passing yards in three straight games. Believe it or not, the RedBlacks still aren't out of the playoff picture, sitting a game or less back of three of the nine teams in the league. There's little reason for them to hold anything back, especially after last week's embarrassing performance in front of the home faithful. Take the over. | |||||||
09-28-21 | Marlins +1.5 v. Mets | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -160 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
N.L. Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on Miami +1.5 runs over New York at 4:10 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams are simply playing out the string at this point and both are playing poorly with each entering riding five-game losing streaks. Something obviously has to give in this one. I'll grab the insurance run with the Marlins as the spot sets up well for them in the front half of this seven-inning double-header. Note that Miami has gone an impressive 17-7 after scoring three runs or less in three consecutive games this season, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 2.0 runs in that spot. While the Marlins sit a whopping 27 games under .500 on the season, they've actually gone 32-31 after losing four or five of their last six games, outscoring opponents by 0.5 runs on average in that situation. As for the Mets, they're a woeful 1-9 when playing with double-revenge against an opponent having scored two runs or less in those losses, outscored by an average margin of 2.4 runs in that spot. Marcus Stroman will get the start for New York. Note that he owns a 2-7 team record the last nine times he's pitched as a home favorite priced between -150 and -200, as is the case here, with his teams outscored by 2.8 runs on average in that spot. Trevor Rogers will counter for Miami. He has posted a 2.60 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 13 road starts this season. While the Marlins are just 4-10 in his last 14 starts overall, they've gone 8-6 when factoring in the +1.5 run-line. Miami has won all three of Rogers' previous starts against the Mets, despite the fact that he was matched up against New York ace Jacob DeGrom twice. Stroman has faced the Marlins three times this season and the Mets failed to deliver a win by more than a single run in any of those contests. Take Miami +1.5 runs. | |||||||
09-27-21 | Eagles v. Cowboys OVER 51.5 | Top | 21-41 | Win | 101 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
MNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Dallas at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I fully expected this total to rise over the course of the week but that hasn't been the case. In fact, we've seen the opposite play out. Perhaps that has something to do with the fact that both teams are coming off low-scoring results in Week 2. Regardless the reason, we'll take advantage and back the 'over' on Monday night. This is a 'revenge game' of sorts for Eagles dual-threat QB Jalen Hurts. He led Philadelphia on touchdowns on each of the first two drives in his lone start against Dallas last December, and continued to march the offense up and down the field for the remainder of the game but ultimately couldn't find the end zone again in an eventual 37-17 loss. Hurts threw for 342 yards in that game and also led the team in rushing but fumbled twice and tossed an interception that proved to be the team's downfall. That loss dashed the Eagles slim playoff hopes and you can be sure Hurts hasn't forgot about it. I do like the fact that he's catching the Cowboys early in the season here (Eagles head coach at the time Doug Pederson noted that Hurts was banged-up heading into that late-December meeting with the Cowboys), not to mention he'll be facing a depleted Dallas defense that is missing three of its top four edge rushers - a critical defensive position given Hurts mobility. Dallas isn't just dealing with defensive injuries, it has also taken a hit at the wide receiver position with Michael Gallup sidelined and Amari Cooper dealing with cracked ribs. All indications are that Cooper will play and I'm willing to bet on offensive coordinator Kellen Moore's ability to come up with a gameplan to take advantage of an Eagles defense that has been vulnerable against the pass in recent years and will also be missing key cogs both up front and at the back-end (notably DE Brandon Graham and S Rodney McLeod) in this one. The emergence of RB Tony Pollard adds another wrinkle to an already dynamic Cowboys offense that might even have a little more juice than usual with QB Dak Prescott returning to the field where he suffered a devastating season-ending injury in Week 5 last year. Note that the 'over' has gone 10-2 with the Cowboys playing at home against NFC opponents over the last three seasons with those games averaging a total of 60.0 points. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-26-21 | Seahawks -128 v. Vikings | 17-30 | Loss | -128 | 6 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle moneyline over Minnesota at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. Yes, the Vikings 'need it more' after starting 0-2 but the Seahawks certainly don't want to get off to a 1-2 start, not in a crowded and ultra-competitive NFC West. I simply feel that Seattle is the better team in this matchup and should be able to duplicate what Arizona did to the Vikings offense last week. Minnesota wasted a tremendous offensive performance last week as it scored 30+ points but couldn't secure the win thanks to a missed field goal in the closing seconds of the fourth quarter. Were it not for a couple of interceptions the Vikings easily could have given up 40+ points in that loss. This is far from an ideal 'get right' matchup against a Seahawks squad that's coming off a disappointing loss of its own at home against the Titans. Seattle got steamrolled by Derrick Henry in the second half of that contest. Fortunately, they'll be facing a Vikings squad that has a running back in Dalvin Cook that's playing at less than 100% healthy (if he plays at all). Take Seattle moneyline (7*). | |||||||
09-26-21 | Dolphins +4 v. Raiders | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 18 h 8 m | Show |
AFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Las Vegas at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I don't believe for a second that the Raiders are a true contender in the AFC West this season. Yes, they're off to a 2-0 start. However, they just as easily could have started with a loss against the Ravens were it not for some poor execution from Baltimore late in that Monday nighter. Then they took advantage of a Steelers squad that was 'fat and happy' off a season-opening upset win in Buffalo, and continues to employ an aging, noodle-armed starting QB in Ben Roethlisberger. Here, I believe the Raiders face their toughest test to date with a late window home game against the Dolphins, who will certainly be in a foul mood following last week's 35-0 drubbing at the hands of the Bills. While Miami will be without starting QB Tua Tagovailoa, I don't believe there's a big drop-off from him to backup Jacoby Brissett. Brissett has proven to be a capable starting QB during his days in Indianapolis and I expect him to find some success in a 'game manager' role against the Raiders here. This one really comes down to the Dolphins defense, and I'm confident they can outplay a very average Raiders offense on Sunday afternoon. Las Vegas' offensive line is banged-up. Derek Carr is dealing with an ankle injury. The Raiders defense has lost a pair of safeties along with DT Gerald McCoy. Note that the Raiders are 2-11 ATS the last 13 times they've come off consecutive games in which they gained 300 or more yards through the air. They're also 28-46 ATS when coming off consecutive wins ATS, outscored by an average margin of 3.3 points in that spot. Look for the Fins to at the very least take the Raiders down to the wire in this one. Take Miami (10*). | |||||||
09-26-21 | Washington Football Team v. Bills OVER 45.5 | Top | 21-43 | Win | 100 | 47 h 48 m | Show |
NFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Buffalo at 1 pm et on Sunday. Despite the fact that this game has the highest shootout potential of any of the Bills first three games this season (they previously faced two plodding offenses in the Steelers and Dolphins) this is the lowest total we've seen. I believe it will prove too low on Sunday afternoon in Orchard Park. The Washington Football Team entered the season with plenty of optimism and dare I say hype, largely due to their potentially fierce defense. Well, that defense has been anything but fierce through two weeks, carved up to the tune of 53 pass completions for well over 550 yards. Now they head to Buffalo to take on a Josh Allen-led Bills offense that has yet to play its best game of the season but will continue to employ an aggressive attack under mastermind coodinator Brian Daboll. Interestingly, Buffalo's ground attack has been just fine, gaining 260 yards on 55 rush attempts. Once the passing attack gets back up to speed, look out. I'm willing to bet on that happening in this matchup. On the flip side, while Buffalo's defensive numbers through two games are solid, it's had everything to do with the opposition it has faced, Pittsburgh with an aging and noodle-armed QB in Ben Roethlisberger and Miami which was forced to turn to journeyman backup QB Jacoby Brissett after Tua Tagovailoa exited early with an injury. Washington QB Taylor Heinicke has already proven to have a gunslinger mentality and enters this game having thrown for 901 yards, five touchdowns and two interceptions while also running for 91 yards and a score in four previous appearances since the start of last season. Likely playing in comeback mode for most of the afternoon on Sunday, I expect Heinicke to once again pad his stats and further build on his connection with standout WR Terry McLaurin. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-26-21 | Bears v. Browns UNDER 45 | 6-26 | Win | 100 | 15 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Cleveland at 1 pm et on Sunday. I expect to see some old-school football as the Bears and Browns do battle in the Dawg Pound on Sunday afternoon. The Bears will be starting rookie Justin Fields at quarterback and while most see him as a major upgrade over veteran Andy Dalton, I'm not so sure it plays out that way on the scoreboard. Fields is still learning the Bears offense, which isn't all that dynamic to begin with. While I am confident in his ability to march the football up and down the field, I'm not convinced he can finish a lot of drives with 7's rather than 3's against a tough Browns defense on Sunday. Meanwhile, the Browns offense was already run-first before losing WR Jarvis Landry to injury. Odell Beckham Jr. is expected to return to the field on Sunday but I'm convinced he'll be little more than a decoy. Look for the Browns to go run-heavy, even against a Bears front that has been stout against the run through two games. Cleveland has posted a 2-0 o/u record so far this season but I don't expect that 'over' run to reach three in a row on Sunday. Take the under (9*). | |||||||
09-25-21 | Kentucky v. South Carolina UNDER 48.5 | Top | 16-10 | Win | 100 | 80 h 46 m | Show |
SEC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Kentucky and South Carolina at 7 pm et on Saturday. We've won countless plays on the 'under' in games involving the Kentucky Wildcats over the years. However, so far in 2021 we've seen Kentucky post a perfect 3-0 o/u record. I expect that to change on Saturday as the Wildcats hit the road for the first time this season, going up against a South Carolina Gamecocks squad that is licking its wounds after a 40-13 drubbing at the hands of Georgia last week. A couple of transfers have given the Kentucky offense a big boost so far this season, QB Will Levis and WR Wan'Dale Robinson. Let's keep things in perspective though. While the Wildcats have put up a whopping 108 points in three games - all victories - they've done so against the likes of Louisiana-Monroe, Missouri and Chattanooga, not exactly a who's who of elite defensive teams. Also keep in mind, last week against FCS squad Chattanooga, the Wildcats scored just three offensive touchdowns, with two of those coming in the game's first 29 minutes. From there, Kentucky found the end zone just once with that touchdown coming nearly five minutes into the fourth quarter. The only opponent that has had any considerable success against the Kentucky defense this season was Missouri and that was because it bombed away - 52 pass attempts to be exact, yet still managed under 300 yards through the air. South Carolina isn't built that way with QBs Zeb Noland and Luke Doty both struggling. Both of these teams might be well-suited to scaling back the offense a bit here given the Wildcats have turned the football over eight times while the Gamecocks have coughed it up seven times. Both defenses have the ability to get into the backfield which makes it more difficult for the quarterbacks, all more or less pocket-passers, to have time to get the football more than 10-15 yards down the field. Two weeks ago South Carolina traveled to East Carolina and didn't score an offensive touchdown until the final minute of the third quarter. That was the Gamecocks only offensive TD of the entire game in a narrow 20-17 victory. In fact, in their last 10 quarters of football they've managed to score just three offensive touchdowns. The last time these two teams met on this field they combined to score just 31 points back in 2019. We're obviously talking about two different teams now, but I'm expecting another relatively low-scoring affair. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-25-21 | Buffalo -13 v. Old Dominion | 35-34 | Loss | -116 | 58 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over Old Dominion at 6 pm et on Saturday. Buffalo got off to a roaring start this season, blasting FCS squad Wagner 69-7 in its opener. Since then, the Bulls have lost back-to-back games, albeit as considerable underdogs on the road against Nebraska and at home against Coastal Carolina. There's no reason to be down on the Bulls right now and I fully expect to see them take their frustrations out on Old Dominion this week. The Monarchs are off to an identical 1-2 start although their long-term prospects this season aren't nearly as favorable as Buffalo's. Keep in mind, ODU was forced to cancel its entire 2020 season due to Covid concerns and as a result had a number of players transfer out of the program entirely. That leaves the cupboard somewhat bare this season as the Monarchs look to build the program back up. Note that their lone victory so far came against an FCS team, Hampton. In its other two contests, ODU was outscored by an 87-27 margin against Wake Forest and Liberty. The Monarchs are particularly thin on the defensive side of the football and that was more than evident last Saturday as they were torched for four first half touchdowns against Liberty. Buffalo is precisely the type of team they probably don't want to see this week as the Bulls can beat you in a variety of different ways. It's worth noting that in both of the Monarchs previous losses their opponent has taken their foot off the gas in the second half, something I don't anticipate seeing out of Buffalo given it needs to turn in a complete 60-minute effort after suffering consecutive losses. Remember, back in Week 1 against Wagner, the Bulls jumped ahead 38-0 before halftime but still proceeded to add 31 more points in the game's final 30 minutes. Once Buffalo is able to build a lead in this one we can count on its ground game to salt the game away with a trio of running backs capable of going off. In fact, through three games, the Bulls have had three different players lead the team in rushing. QB Kyle Vantrease is more of a game manager than anything else but has shown the ability to go off through the air in the past and this is certainly a matchup where he can take advantage of an ODU secondary that was forced to make wholesale changes after canceling the 2020 season. Take Buffalo (10*). | |||||||
09-25-21 | Kent State v. Maryland -14 | 16-37 | Win | 100 | 53 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Maryland minus the points over Kent State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We missed with Maryland last week as the Terps won but failed to cover in a low-scoring Friday night game in Illinois. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the Terps as they're well-positioned to win by margin against Kent State and its 'FlashFast' offense. That high-octane offense has been great in MAC play in recent years, and certainly against FCS opponents. However, pit the Golden Flashes against teams from the Power Five conferences and they don't fare so well. Back in 2019 we saw Kent State score a combined 23 points in three road games against Arizona State, Auburn and Wisconsin. Of course, 2020 was a unique season that only featured MAC games for the Golden Flashes. So far this season we've seen Kent State put up 10 points at Texas A&M and seven points at Iowa - sandwiched around a 60-10 rout of FCS squad VMI. Maryland has the size, talent and experience on the defensive side of the football to effectively swallow up the Golden Flashes offense, which as I mentioned is predicated on playing fast and coming up with big plays from its shifty running backs and speedy wide receivers. Kent State's offensive line, while experienced, hasn't held up well at all through three games this season, allowing QB Dustin Crum to be sacked a whopping 10 times through three games. With Crum taking a beating, the Golden Flashes would probably be well-suited to 'punt' this one before opening their MAC schedule with a home game against Bowling Green next Saturday. Unlike the Terps, Kent State lacks the size up front on defense to keep opposing offenses at bay. Maryland's offense was held down against Illinois last week but it was more due to a lack of execution at key points of the game than anything else as the Terps converted just two-of-10 third down opportunities. QB Taulia Tagovailoa actually completed 32-of-43 passes for 350 yards and a touchdown in the three-point win. Unfortunately, the Terps coughed up a pair of fumbles which ultimately ended up being the different between a win and a win and ATS cover. Look for the Terps to bully the Kent State defensive line and open things up for their underrated ground attack in this one. Tagovailoa will have his moments as Maryland boasts a deep group of talented wide receivers, but I suspect Tayon Fleet-Davis may actually be the star of this game. If you're concerned about the back door being left open in this one, keep in mind Maryland led Howard (admittedly an FCS squad) 38-0 at halftime two weeks ago but continued to pour it on in the second half, scoring another 24 unanswered points. Backup QB Reece Udinski is capable, having gone 5-for-5 passing for 73 yards and a score in that rout. Take Maryland (9*). | |||||||
09-25-21 | Cardinals v. Cubs UNDER 10.5 | 8-5 | Loss | -112 | 5 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Chicago at 2:20 pm et on Saturday. We saw a pair of wild, high-scoring games in yesterday's seven-inning double-header but I expect a different story to unfold on Wrigley Field on Saturday. Note that the 'under' is a perfect 14-0 when the Cardinals come off a game in which they scored 12 or more runs over the last three seasons with those games producing an average total of just 5.4 runs. St. Louis averages just 2.6 runs per game when coming off a win by eight runs over more over the last three seasons, with those games totaling an average of just 7.1 runs. As for the Cubs, they average only 3.8 runs per game when playing at home with double-revenge this season, as is the case here. Jon Lester has arguably been the Cards most consistent starter lately, checking in with a 2.84 ERA and 0.84 WHIP over his last three starts. For his part, Cubs starter Adrian Sampson has posted a respectable 3.21 ERA and 1.29 WHIP over his last three outings. The Cards bullpen continues to pitch well, recording a collective 1.12 WHIP over their last seven games. While the Cubs 'pen has struggled for the most part this season, it has managed to post a 4.10 ERA and 1.29 WHIP with 19 saves converted and only six blown at home. Take the under (7*). | |||||||
09-25-21 | Ohio +14.5 v. Northwestern | Top | 6-35 | Loss | -107 | 49 h 41 m | Show |
CFB Non-Conference Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Ohio plus the points over Northwestern at 12 noon et on Saturday. We successfully faded the Ohio Bobcats in their rout at the hands of Louisiana-Lafayette last Thursday night. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Bobcats as they stay on the road to face Northwestern on Saturday. Consider Ohio's loss last week 'rock-bottom'. While it's been an awful 0-3 start to the season and the post-Frank Solich era, all is not lost. Everything is actually still in front of the Bobcats with a full MAC schedule set to begin next week. While the Week 2 loss to FCS squad Duquesne was ugly, the fact is Ohio wasn't really expected to win either of its other two games. With a strong performance on Saturday, the Bobcats can at the very least feel good about themselves entering the onset of conference play. Perhaps the best news for Ohio is that standout WR Isiah Cox is expected to make his season debut after missing the first three games due to disciplinary issues. I don't believe his absence sat well with the rest of the team, the offense in particular as they struggled to move the football through the first three weeks of the season. Cox immediately makes the offense more explosive, keeping in mind, the Bobcats already boast a tremendous 1-2 punch at the running back position in De'mondre Tuggle and O'Shaan Allison. Defensively, the Bobcats are better than they've shown and here should benefit from having an couple of extra days of practice following last week's dubbing at the hands of a terrific Ragin' Cajuns offense. While they're stepping up in class on paper against a Big Ten opponent here, Northwestern certainly has its issues, on both sides of the football. The Wildcats head into this game sporting a 1-2 record with its lone victory coming against FCS squad Indiana State. In losses to Michigan State and Duke, the Wildcats were marched up and down the field on at will. On offense, the Wildcats have been going with a three-man rotation at quarterback, which only indicates one thing, they're not all that confident in any of the three. The reality is, the Wildcats season began circling the drain before it even got started when RB Cam Porter went down to a season-ending injury in August. Without a dominant ground attack, the Wildcats lack the ability to effectively shorten games, something Ohio will be looking to do here on Saturday. While most teams boast a ton of returning talent following a strange 2020 Covid-tinged season, Northwestern is one of the least experienced teams in the country. This one has the potential to be much closer than most are expecting. Take Ohio (10*). | |||||||
09-25-21 | Texas Tech v. Texas UNDER 61.5 | Top | 35-70 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 17 m | Show |
Big 12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Texas Tech and Texas at 12 noon et on Saturday. We saw a wild, high-scoring (that's an understatement) shootout between these in-state rivals last season as Texas prevailed by a 63-56 score almost a year ago to the day. I'm expecting a different story to unfold this time around, however. Texas Tech routed Florida International by a 54-21 score last week. It's worth noting that the Red Raiders were forced to punt on each of their first two drives in that game and actually trailed 7-0 before a pick-six with less than four minutes remaining in the first quarter. It wasn't until nearly three minutes into the second quarter that they scored their first offensive touchdown of the game. From there, FIU fell apart, as is often the case for big non-conference underdogs, and Texas Tech padded its offensive stats. Keep in mind, prior to that game, the Red Raiders had scored just 66 points combined in their first two games this season. That's nothing to sneeze at, but I'm not entirely convinced this is an elite offensive football team. The key here is that Texas got the perfect tune-up in a shutout performance against Rice last week. This is an experienced Longhorns defense, particularly in the secondary which is obviously an area that is of critical importance against the Red Raiders. Note that Texas enters the week ranked 87th in the country in pass yards allowed per game this season. Most will point to the Longhorns ugly 40-21 loss against Arkansas. Texas actually allowed just one touchdown in the first 36 minutes of that game. It was only when they were forced to play from behind 13-0 in the second half that they abandoned the run and their offense couldn't stay on the field, allowing the Hogs to run it up. Texas Tech is obviously known for its offense, but it has held up well defensively so far this season, and obviously won't have to deal with QB Sam Ehlinger for the Longhorns this time around. The Red Raiders already faced a tough road test against Houston (2-1) back in Week 1 on the fast track at NRG Stadium. They got off to a rough start in that game, allowing two first quarter touchdowns, but from there they gave up just one score the rest of the way, pitching a shutout in the second half. That was against a Cougars squad that proceeded to put up 89 points on over 800 yards of total offense over the next two games. Note that Texas Tech returns 11 of its top 13 tacklers from last season and checks in as one of the healthiest teams in the nation entering Week 4. The Red Raiders boast plenty of size and talent up front to help contain the Longhorns ground attack, while the secondary boasts a trio of 'super seniors' as a result of the unique Covid rules regarding player eligibility. Take the under (10*). |
Service | Profit |
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Ricky Tran | $756 |
ProSportsPicks | $632 |
Joseph D'Amico | $510 |
Joey Tron | $450 |
Tom Macrina | $399 |
Nick Parsons | $344 |
Sean Murphy | $306 |
Jack Jones | $303 |
William Burns | $233 |
Dan Kaiser | $220 |