Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
04-08-24 | Rays -135 v. Angels | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -135 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
American League Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Monday. We'll get another shot at fading Angels starter Tyler Anderson at a reasonable price after he inexplicably tossed seven shutout innings against the Marlins in his 2024 debut. Los Angeles is coming off a series loss at home against another (weaker) A.L. East opponent in the Red Sox. The Rays come in off a series win in Colorado and will look to keep it rolling with Zach Eflin on the mound on Monday. He shook off a rough debut against the Blue Jays by holding the Rangers to just one earned run over 6 1/3 innings last time out. I would consider Anderson one of the more overpaid starters in baseball right now and will gladly fade him in this matchup. Take Tampa Bay (10*). | |||||||
04-08-24 | Purdue v. Connecticut UNDER 145.5 | Top | 60-75 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
CBB Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Purdue and Connecticut at 9:20 pm et on Monday. I'm not going to stand in the way of either team's 'under' streaks in this matchup. Purdue has seen the 'under' cash in three straight games while Connecticut rides a six-game 'under' streak into Monday's contest. Neither team plays all that fast. In fact, the Huskies sit 328th (out of 362 Division I teams) in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. Purdue checks in 211th. While both teams are ultra-efficient offensively, I generally feel this large stadium venues tend to put a ceiling on shooting abilities. The Huskies actually shot well in their matchup with Alabama on Saturday but Purdue is a considerably tougher defensive opponent. The Boilermakers are going to be up against it here trying to find open looks with UConn ranking fourth in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency (also according to KenPom). I think the Huskies can defend without fouling, something Purdue's previous opponents haven't been able to do effectively. Note that the 'under' is 16-15 in Purdue's last 31 netural court games and 18-12 in UConn's last 30 netural court affairs. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-08-24 | Penguins +139 v. Maple Leafs | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Monday. This is undoubtedly a game the Penguins have had circled on their calendar since dropping a 7-0 decision here in Toronto back in December. Pittsburgh has inexplicably caught fire down the stretch, winning four straight and six of its last seven games after most had written it off. The Pens are now in the thick of the Eastern Conference playoff race and I look for them to deliver another improbable win on Monday. The Leafs are coming off a 4-2 victory over the rival Canadiens in Montreal on Saturday. They return home where they're just 4-4 over their last eight games. Note that Pittsburgh is 19-13 (+3.4 net games) in its last 32 contests when seeking revenge for a loss by two goals or more against an opponent including a 7-5 (+2.2 net games) mark in that situation this season. Take Pittsburgh (10*). | |||||||
04-08-24 | Marlins +145 v. Yankees | 0-7 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami over New York at 6:05 pm et on Monday. The Marlins finally picked up their first victory of the season on Sunday and I look for them to notch a second straight win on Monday as they hand the ball to Jesus Luzardo against Nestor Cortes of the Yankees. I'm not going to knock Luzardo for a shaky outing against the Angels last time out. His FIP north of four is going to come down in time while he has recorded a sub-1.00 FIP through his first two starts. Cortes' first couple of starts haven't been all that encouraging for a pitcher approaching 30 years of age that has dealt with shoulder concerns. Through two outings, Cortes owns a 4.30 FIP and 1.70 WHIP. Coming off three straight series victories to open the campaign, I look for the Yankees to get tripped up here. Take Miami (8*). | |||||||
04-07-24 | Kings v. Nets OVER 220 | 107-77 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Sacramento and Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams are coming off relatively low-scoring results and the Nets find themselves in a back-to-back situation following last night's victory over the Pistons. I'm anticipating a higher-scoring affair on Sunday in Brooklyn. The Kings have shown signs of speeding things up lately, getting off 92 and 99 field goal attempts in two games sandwiched around a matchup with the slow-paced Knicks. They should get theirs against a matador-like Nets defense on Sunday, noting that Brooklyn has allowed 42, 53, 46 and 42 made field goals over its last four contests. While the Kings have been stout defensively, the Nets have shown flashes offensively in recent weeks, connecting on more than 40 field goals in four of their last six games (they didn't reach that number last night but still scored 113 points against Detroit). The 'over' is 64-54 in the Kings last 118 games following an 'under' result including a 21-17 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' has cashed in four straight games with the Nets playing the second half of back-to-backs. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
04-07-24 | Pelicans +6.5 v. Suns | Top | 113-105 | Win | 100 | 20 h 11 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Phoenix at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. New Orleans is reeling right now having lost four straight games both SU and ATS. I look for the Pelicans to give the Suns all they can handle on Sunday, however. Note that New Orleans is trending in the right direction offensively having knocked down 42 or more field goals in two of its last three games. It has also held five straight and 10 of its last 12 opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. The Suns while coming off three straight victories both SU and ATS have been held to 44 or fewer made field goals in six straight games. It's not as if they're blowing the doors off the opposition. Note that the Pelicans are 19-11 ATS in their last 30 games when seeking revenge for a double-digit home loss against an opponent, as is the case here, including an 8-3 ATS record in that situation this season. The Suns are 18-34 ATS in their last 52 contests following a double-digit home win including a 4-8 ATS mark in that spot this season. Take New Orleans (10*). | |||||||
04-07-24 | Padres v. Giants -1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
N.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco -1.5 runs over San Diego at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. Padres starter Matt Waldron's stay at the big league level could prove to be short-lived but we want to fade him while we can as he makes his second start of the campaign in San Francisco on Sunday. Waldron actually looked pretty good in the Spring, earning a role in the starting rotation. His first regular season outing didn't go so well as he allowed nine hits and four earned runs in just four innings of work. The Giants will get their second look at the knuckle-baller after facing him in late September last year. Waldron recorded a 5.46 FIP in 41 1/3 big league innings last season. San Francisco will hand the ball to Logan Webb as he looks to shake off a rough outing in Los Angeles earlier this week. I'm not overly concerned by that shaky performance as Webb was terrific in his regular season debut (against these same Padres). The Giants ace owns a career 2.56 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 10 starts against San Diego. Take San Francisco -1.5 runs (10*). | |||||||
04-07-24 | Phillies v. Nationals UNDER 8.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Washington at 1:35 pm et on Sunday. While it features back-of-the-rotation starters, I do think we'll see a pretty good pitching matchup on Sunday afternoon in Washington. Christopher Sanchez had a miserable Spring but shook that off to toss five quality innings in his regular season debut, striking out eight while allowing just two earned runs against the Reds. He was serviceable last year, recording a 3.99 FIP and 1.05 WHIP in just shy of 100 innings pitched. Mackenzie Gore will counter for Washington. He was shaky in his first regular season outing. There are going to be plenty of ups and downs with Gore but the potential is there to rise to the occasion in spots like this one where the Nationals are trying to avoid the sweep. The Phillies aren't exactly tearing the cover off the baseball right now having scored more than four runs just twice in seven games to date. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
04-06-24 | NC State v. Purdue -9 | 50-63 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Purdue minus the points over N.C. State at 6:05 pm et on Saturday. Purdue was involved in a nail-biter against Tennessee in the Elite Eight. I don't expect Saturday's Final Four clash with N.C. State to be as close. All credit to the Wolfpack for getting here, they've been on an incredible run going back to to the ACC Tournament. I don't like the spot here, however. Note that N.C. State checks in off a 12-point victory over Duke in the Elite Eight. The Wolfpack are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games following a double-digit win over a conference opponent including 1-2 ATS in that situation this season. N.C. State is also 4-11 ATS in its last 15 contests after covering the spread in consecutive games, as is the case here, including a 3-5 ATS mark in that spot this season. Purdue is a long-term 29-18 ATS in its last 47 NCAA Tournament games including a perfect 4-0 ATS record this year. It almost seems as if opponents have been overlooking N.C. State for weeks now. With the nearly week-long build-up to this contest, I don't expect Purdue to suffer the same fate. Take Purdue (8*). | |||||||
04-06-24 | Mets v. Reds -115 | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cincinnati over New York at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. The Mets took the opener of this series yesterday but that was their game to get in my opinion as they had veteran Jose Quintana going against Hunter Greene. On Saturday, the starting pitching advantage flips back to the Reds as they send Nick Martinez to the hill against Luis Severino. I think Severino might just be done as a productive big league starter. Starting pitchers at his age don't tend to enjoy sudden turnarounds and he showed us nothing in his regular season debut, getting lit up for 11 hits and six earned runs in just five innings of work against Milwaukee. The Mets took a flyer on the veteran right-hander but we won't do the same. Martinez has showed some promise in a starting role over the course of his career. He didn't have his best stuff in his regular season debut with the Reds but after a fine Spring, I'm willing to give him a pass. Look for the Reds bats to wake from their slumber on Saturday. Take Cincinnati (8*). | |||||||
04-06-24 | Dodgers v. Cubs UNDER 8 | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Chicago at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair between these two teams yesterday afternoon at Wrigley Field but I look for a different story to unfold on Saturday. Yoshinobu Yamomoto had a rough Spring and followed it up with a shaky regular season debut for the Dodgers. However, his second start went a lot better and I look for him to build off of that performance here. Note that Yamamoto actually dropped his FIP all the way to 1.85 on the campaign following his most recent effort. His opposing starter on Saturday will be Jordan Wicks. I'm relatively high on the Cubs left-hander who dazzled in the Spring and while he didn't have his best stuff in his first regular season outing, he did hang in there for four innings allowing only two earned runs, logging a 2.43 FIP. Look for runs to come at a premium at Wrigley on Saturday. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
04-06-24 | Cavs v. Lakers OVER 228.5 | 97-116 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Los Angeles at 3:40 pm et on Saturday. Sometimes these early start matchups on the west coast can be sleepy affairs but I don't expect that to be the case here. The Lakers have connected on 42 or more field goals in six of their last seven games. They're playing fast having gotten off 101 and 91 field goal attempts over their last two contests. Meanwhile, the Cavs haven't been their usual effective selves defensively and that's been the case for weeks. They've allowed five straight and seven of their last eight opponents to knock down more than 40 field goals. While Cleveland hasn't been playing particularly fast lately, the Lakers have a knack for speeding up the opposition, sometimes to their own detriment. Their opponents have gotten off 89 or more field goal attempts in an incredible 30 of their last 31 games. The last time these two teams squared off back in November Cleveland hoisted up 91 field goal attempts in a game that reached 236 total points. The 'over' holds a slight edge in the long-term picture with the Cavs facing non-conference foes going 42-41 in their last 83 contests including a 16-10 mark this season. The 'over' is also 94-91 in Cleveland's last 185 contests following a loss by 20 points or more, as is the case here, including a 3-0 record in that situation this season. The Lakers have seen the 'over' go 123-102 in their last 225 games with the total set at 220 points or higher including a 43-31 record in that situation this season. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
04-05-24 | Wolves v. Suns UNDER 219 | Top | 87-97 | Win | 100 | 15 h 28 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Friday. These two teams were involved in a high-scoring affair the last time they met but that was back in November. Phoenix is trending slower right now having gotten off 87 or fewer field goal attempts in five straight and eight of its last 10 games. The Suns have also played some defense lately, limiting seven of their last eight opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. Of course the Timberwolves have been one of the best defensive teams in the league this season and they enter this contest having held 11 straight and 13 of their last 14 foes to 42 or fewer made field goals. Minnesota's offense exploded last time out but that was against a matador-like Raptors defense. Prior to that, the T'Wolves had been held to 42 or fewer made field goals in seven straight contests. Note that the 'under' is 50-44 in Minnesota's last 94 games when seeking revenge for a loss in which its opponent scored 110 points or more, as is the case here, including a 15-5 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' holds a slight edge in all Suns home games recently, going 67-63 in their last 130 contests in the desert including a 19-18 record this season. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-05-24 | Mariners v. Brewers UNDER 8 | 5-6 | Loss | -114 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Friday. We saw what we needed to from Mariners starter Logan Gilbert in his regular season debut as he was dominant over seven innings against the Guardians. Now he faces a similarly tricky lineup in Milwaukee but I'm confident he'll be up to the task. Brewers starter Freddy Peralta has quite simply been the picture of consistency when healthy and he shook off a rough Spring to toss six razor sharp innings in his first start of the campaign. The Mariners bats have yet to wake up from their Spring slumber, already held to one run or less on three different occasions this season. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
04-05-24 | Diamondbacks v. Braves OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 34 m | Show |
National League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Friday. I love the way this one sets up as a relatively high-scoring game in Atlanta on Friday. Tommy Henry will get the start for the visiting Diamondbacks. Even the most casual observer could see that there was trouble brewing for Henry last season. He had an awful Spring and followed it up with an ugly regular season debut last week. Now he draws an extremely difficult test in the Braves home opener on Friday. Spencer Strider was lights out in the Spring but his first regular season outing was about what we've come to expect from the Braves ace - plenty of strikeouts (eight) but also a couple of runs allowed. I do think the D'Backs bats can get to him here, even if he does end up hanging another crooked number of K's on the board. The potential for a 6-5 type of game is there in my opinion. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
04-04-24 | Blues v. Predators OVER 6 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and Nashville at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. The Predators are coming off a shutout defeat at the hands of the Bruins on home ice two nights ago. That's worth noting as the 'over' is a long-term 25-16 in their last 41 games after getting shut out at home including a 4-0 mark in that situation over the last three seasons (this is the first time it has come up this season). The Blues have seen the 'over' cash at a 28-11 clip in their last 39 contests played on two days' rest, as is the case here, including a 7-4 record in that spot this season. Additionally, the 'over' is 17-5 in St. Louis' last 22 games following an overtime victory including a 5-2 mark this season. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
04-04-24 | White Sox v. Royals -1.5 | 1-10 | Win | 126 | 22 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas City -1.5 runs over Chicago at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. The Royals let the Orioles off the hook last night, blowing a late 3-0 lead in a 4-3 defeat. I don't expect them to suffer the same fate as they return home to host the White Sox on Thursday. Chicago is coming off a rain-out against the Braves yesterday. Mike Soroka is expected to get the start for the Sox. He was roughed up early in his season debut before settling down. So far so good on the injury front for the right-hander. I do think expectations should be tempered as he is by no means a number two starter for most teams in baseball. Seth Lugo is in his sweet spot as a home favorite, noting his teams have gone 16-5 (+7.6 net games) in his last 21 starts in that role. The White Sox check in a woeful 58-81 (-30.8 net games) in their last 139 contests following a victory, as is the case here. Take Kansas City -1.5 runs (8*). | |||||||
04-04-24 | 76ers v. Heat UNDER 210 | 109-105 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Miami at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. We saw a glimpse of how the 76ers are likely to play with Joel Embiid back in the lineup on Tuesday and that's relatively slow as they got off just 78 field goal attempts in that come-from-behind victory. We also saw Philadelphia bounce back defensively in that contest, holding Oklahoma City to just 37 made field goals. Note that the Sixers haven't allowed more than 90 field goal attempts since way back on March 6th against Memphis. Miami has seen each of its last three games go 'over' the total but the numbers point to that trend being unsustainable. Note that the Heat have held 12 of their last 15 opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. None of their last 12 foes have gotten off more than 88 field goal attempts. The 'under' is 39-24 in Philadelphia's last 63 games as a road underdog including a 12-7 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is a long-term 45-40 in the Heat's last 85 contests following three straight double-digit victories, as is the case here, including a 1-0 record this season. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
04-04-24 | Kings v. Knicks -3.5 | Top | 109-120 | Win | 100 | 23 h 47 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on New York minus the points over Sacramento at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. I like the bounce-back spot for the Knicks after suffering a 109-99 setback in Miami two nights ago. New York couldn't get anything going offensively in that loss. Off three straight losses, the Knicks will catch a Kings squad that is probably feeling pretty good about itself following victories over the Jazz and Clippers. That latter win came by 14 points against Los Angeles. Note that Sacramento is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight games following a win by double-digits over a division opponent including a 1-4 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Kings are also 2-6 ATS in their last eight contests after allowing 95 points or less in their previous game including a 1-3 ATS record in that spot this season. Meanwhile, the Knicks are 28-23 ATS in their last 51 games as a home favorite of six points or less including a 7-5 ATS mark in that situation this season. They're also 16-10 ATS in their last 26 contests following a double-digit road loss including a 6-2 ATS record this season. Take New York (10*). | |||||||
04-03-24 | Cavs v. Suns -5.5 | 101-122 | Win | 100 | 14 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Cleveland at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Cavaliers are coming off a win in Utah last night but haven't strung together consecutive ATS victories since March 11th and 13th. They'll be hard-pressed to accomplish that feat as they challenge a rested Suns squad in Phoenix on Wednesday. Note that the Suns have 6-3 ATS over their last nine games despite facing a pretty tough recent schedule. This homestand will only get tougher with matchups against the Timberwolves, Pelicans and Clippers on deck. Look for Phoenix to make the most of this winnable matchup. Take Phoenix (8*). | |||||||
04-03-24 | Giants v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. I'm anticipating a low-scoring affair as the Giants and Dodgers do battle in the third game of their series on Wednesday. Kyle Harrison is a pitcher I'm willing to get behind as he comes off a a fine rookie campaign in which he proved he has the stuff to deceive hitters at the big league level. Tyler Glasnow is of course already an elite starter that earned a big contract from the Dodgers in the offseason and has been terrific through two starts this season (following a lights out Spring), allowing only nine of 42 batters he has faced to reach base. Expect runs to come at a premium in this one. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
04-03-24 | Oilers +110 v. Stars | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Edmonton over Dallas at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Oilers dropped an overtime decision in St. Louis two nights ago but I look for them to earn a split on this two-game road trip with a victory in Dallas on Wednesday. The Stars are red hot, winners of seven games in a row. Keep in mind, only two of those victories came against teams currently in playoff position. The Oilers are a quality road team at 21-17 this season and the visitors have taken four of the last five meetings in this series. Take Edmonton (8*). | |||||||
04-03-24 | Raptors +15.5 v. Wolves | 85-133 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto plus the points over Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Raptors haven't shown much life lately and find themselves in a back-to-back spot on Wednesday in Minnesota. With that being said, the Timberwolves are 1-2-1 ATS in their last four contests and will be hard-pressed to cover a spread this lofty given the way they're playing right now. Note that Minnesota has gotten off 82 or fewer field goal attempts in four straight games and 88 or fewer in seven straight. You would have to go back eight games to find the last time it knocked down more than 42 field goals. The Raptors are actually trending in the right direction offensively after connecting on 47 and 43 field goals in their last two contests. Take Toronto (8*). | |||||||
04-03-24 | Pirates -151 v. Nationals | 3-5 | Loss | -151 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh over Washington at 6:45 pm et on Wednesday. This is a pitching mismatch that isn't being properly reflected in the price. Mitch Keller is a serviceable starter for the Pirates. He will be looking to bounce back following a shaky first start of the regular season, however. I'm confident he'll rebound, noting he recorded a 3.80 FIP and 1.25 WHIP last season (and has posted a sub-4.00 FIP in three consecutive years). Trevor Williams, a former Pirate, will counter for Washington. He was awful for the Nationals last season and even worse in the Spring. Starters of this age and quality don't tend to enjoy sudden rebounds. Look for the Buccos bats to stay hot. Take Pittsburgh (8*). | |||||||
04-03-24 | Reds v. Phillies UNDER 7.5 | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 19 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Philadelphia at 1:05 pm et on Wednesday. It's not too often we can talk about a potential pitcher's duel in a game involving these two teams but I do think that is the case on Wednesday. Frankie Montas had a rough Spring as he works his way back from injuries. He shrugged it off in his regular season debut, however, as he allowed just four of 21 batters to reach base over six shutout frames against the Nationals. Montas still has terrific stuff, his health is the only real concern and that's not a big issue at the moment. Zack Wheeler will counter for Philadelphia. He was also terrific in his regular season debut, allowing only five of 23 batters to reach base in six shutout innings. Wheeler was also lights out in the Spring, recording a 1.26 ERA and 0.63 WHIP in 14 1/3 innings of work. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
04-03-24 | Angels v. Marlins -114 | 10-2 | Loss | -114 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami over Los Angeles at 1:10 pm et on Wednesday. While most have already written off the the Marlins it's important to remember we're less than a week into the season. I like the matchup here as they look to tee off on Patrick Sandoval. The left-hander hasn't been good in his recent years, wasn't good in the Spring and was downright awful in his regular season debut. The opportunities have been there for the Marlins offensively, they simply haven't been able to cash in. Today they will. A.J. Puk won't be asked to do too much for Miami in a starter's role here. It's not as if the Angels bats are setting the world on fire, producing just three runs in last night's victory. Take Miami (8*). | |||||||
04-02-24 | Giants +130 v. Dodgers | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Giants got drummed 8-3 in the opener of this series last night. I look for them to bounce back from consecutive losses as they send steady right-hander Logan Webb to the hill on Tuesday. Webb comes off three consecutive seasons in which he recorded an xERA of 3.31 or better including a 2.98 mark last year. The Dodgers haven't settled on a starter for Tuesday's game as of yet. We'll back the Giants as an 'action' bet here as Los Angeles isn't brimming with favorable options for the slot. Take San Francisco (8*). | |||||||
04-02-24 | Yankees v. Diamondbacks -111 | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona over New York at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. Nestor Cortes was awful in exhibition action and struggled in his regular season debut as well. You have to wonder whether his shoulder issues from a year ago are still a factor. The Yankees are undoubtedly rolling out of the gate but I expect the Diamondbacks to bounce back from last night's series-opening loss. Arizona has been hot at the dish early in the campaign as well and should get to Cortes early and often. Zac Gallen looked good in his first start of the campaign, allowing just one earned run over five innings. He faces a much tougher test in his second outing but it's worth noting that he did pitch six shutout frames against New York last September. Take Arizona (8*). | |||||||
04-02-24 | Rockies v. Cubs -1.5 | 2-12 | Win | 115 | 12 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago -1.5 runs over Colorado at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. Kyle Freeland remains in the Rockies rotation for another year and if his season debut was any indication, it's likely to be another long one for the veteran left-hander. Freeland has had previous success in two career starts at Wrigley Field. Those came prior to 2019 though. We can expect the Cubs bats to tee off on the soft-tossing southpaw on Tuesday. Javier Assad is a typical back-of-the-rotation starter but not a bad one by any means. He'll give Chicago 5-6 effective innings against a stuttering Rockies offense on Tuesday. I'm not interested in paying near -200 prices this early in the season but will lay the extra run for a plus-money return with the Cubbies here. Take Chicago -1.5 runs (8*). | |||||||
04-02-24 | Knicks +3 v. Heat | 99-109 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York plus the points over Miami at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Knicks enter this contest off consecutive losses with the most recent coming in demoralizing last-second fashion at home against the Thunder on Sunday. I look for them to bounce back on Tuesday as they head to Miami to take on a Heat team that is 'fat and happy' off consecutive victories. I don't trust the Heat in a home favorite role and note that they're just 14-22 ATS here in South Beach this season. For the Knicks, this is a key 'right the ship' game before returning home to face the Kings followed by a difficult four-game road trip. New York checks in 32-25 ATS in its last 57 contests as a road underdog of six points or less including a 9-7 ATS mark in that situation this season. Take New York (8*). | |||||||
04-02-24 | Bucks v. Wizards +13.5 | 113-117 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington plus the points over Milwaukee at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Bucks are 18-20 on the road this season but they're laying double-digits in Washington on Tuesday. Off a win and cover in Atlanta on Saturday, I'll fade Milwaukee here. The Bucks have been playing with a rather small margin for error on their current three-game road trip, getting off just 78 and 82 field goal attempts in the first two contests. On the flip side, they've allowed three straight opponents to get off more than 90 field goal attempts. That's not a recipe for success from a pointspread perspective when you're laying as many points as they are here. The Wizards have lost three games in a row following a three-game winning streak. Note that they've held three of their last four opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. Take Washington (8*). | |||||||
04-02-24 | Penguins v. Devils -160 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -160 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
Metropolitan Division Game of the Year. My selection is on New Jersey over Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Devils have undoubtedly been eager to get back on the ice following Friday's 5-2 loss in Buffalo. Since then, the Penguins have played twice, losing in Columbus but winning in upset fashion last night in Manhattan. New Jersey probably didn't mind seeing that result on Monday as the Pens looked like they poured everything they had into that matchup. The Devils have certainly had Pittsburgh's number lately, securing seven straight wins in the series. In fact, they've scored five goals in each of the last four matchups between these two teams. I'm comfortable laying the mid-range price with the home side on Tuesday. Take New Jersey (10*). | |||||||
04-02-24 | Angels v. Marlins -140 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -140 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Month. My selection is on Miami over Los Angeles at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. This is one of the bigger starting pitching mismatches on Tuesday's board but it isn't being priced like it. Tyler Anderson will start the year in the Angels rotation. That's only because he earned a big contract following consecutive solid campaigns in 2021 and 2022. He wasn't good in 2023 and I don't expect him to turn back the clock in 2024. The Marlins will hand the ball to their ace Jesus Luzardo. His ho-hum season debut against the Pirates (a game the Marlins lost) keeps the price in a reasonable range here. I expect Luzardo to make the leap to elite status this season, if he's not already there, but it will take some time for the betting marketplace to come around (and for the Marlins bats to start producing). I like the spot off last night's loss. Take Miami (10*). | |||||||
04-02-24 | Twins v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Milwaukee at 4:10 pm et on Tuesday. I think we're going to see a better pitching matchup than most are expecting as these interleague foes square off on Tuesday afternoon in Milwaukee. Louie Varland has always had potential but ended up getting demoted last season after coming down with case of the yips and proving unable to keep the ball in the park. He did fare better after getting called back up in September and there's reason to believe he can battle for a spot in the Twins starting rotation this season. Jake Junis is in a similar boat potential-wise. He simply hasn't been able to put it all together but has certainly shown flashes of brilliance in time spent with the Royals and Giants. While the Twins do have some terrific hitters sprinkled in their starting nine, they're not going to be an offensive juggernaut, as we saw in their first series as they plated just nine runs in three games against the Royals. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
04-01-24 | Giants v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Monday. The Giants are coming off an exceptionally high-scoring series in San Diego. Meanwhile, the Dodgers saw plenty of runs in their home series against the Cardinals. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair as these N.L. West rivals match up for the first time in 2024. Keaton Winn will take the ball for the visiting Giants. He's probably better than a back-of-the-rotation starter after an up-and-down 2023 campaign. Winn saw limited action in the Spring but did record a 3.18 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. He's a ground ball pitcher with an effective splitter that should keep the Dodgers mighty bats guessing on Monday. Veteran James Paxton joins the Dodgers after spending last season with the Red Sox. He should benefit from moving over to the National League (and making most of his starts at Dodger Stadium) at this stage of his career. Paxton worked seven innings in the Spring, logging a 5.14 ERA but a solid 1.14 WHIP. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-01-24 | Blazers v. Magic OVER 207.5 | 103-104 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Portland and Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Monday. The Blazers have been one of the league's worst defensive teams in recent weeks, allowing four of their last six opponents to knock down at least 44 field goals and three of their last four to hoist up more than 90 field goal attempts. While Orlando's preferred pace is methodical, I do expect it to get out and run taking what Portland gives it on Monday. Note that the Magic, while an elite defensive team, have been giving up their share of opportunities lately (by their standards anyway), yielding 87, 90, 85 and 86 field goal attempts over their last four contests. The Blazers were held to just 35 made field goals last time out against Miami. However, they have shown the ability to bounce back offensively in recent weeks, connecting on 42 or more field goals in three straight games after being held to fewer than 40 in their previous contest. The 'over' is 52-49 in Portland's last 101 games as a road underdog including a 19-17 record in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 22-10 in Orlando's last 32 contests following a double-digit home win, as is the case here, including a 12-6 mark in that spot this season. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
04-01-24 | Braves -1.5 v. White Sox | 9-0 | Win | 100 | 17 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over Chicago at 2:10 pm et on Monday. This is a smash spot for the Braves off Sunday's loss in Philadelphia. Atlanta sends Charlie Morton to the mound against Chris Flexen of the White Sox. Morton had a terrific Spring posting a sub-3.00 ERA after turning back the clock to the tune of a 3.64 ERA in 2023. Flexen will be pitching for his fourth big league club after stints with the Mets, Mariners and Rockies. Things haven't gone particularly well for the right-hander in any of his previous stops. For his career he owns a 4.97 FIP and 1.49 WHIP in just shy of 500 innings of work. Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (8*). | |||||||
03-31-24 | Heat v. Wizards UNDER 218 | Top | 119-107 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Washington at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. Miami is coming off a stunning 142-point explosion against Portland last time out. Keep in mind, the Heat are just one game removed from a stretch that saw them score 92 points or fewer in three of five games. The Wizards continue to see wild swings offensively. They were held to only 87 points in an 'upset' loss at home against the Pistons last time out. They've been limited to 42 or fewer made field goals in six of their last eight contests. However, on the flip side, Washington has held four of its last five foes to 40 or fewer made field goals. Miami continues to play smothering defense (by today's NBA standards), limiting 10 straight opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. Note that the 'under' is 39-35 in Miami's last 74 contests when seeking revenge for a loss in which its opponent score 110 points or more, as is the case here, including a 10-6 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 10-3 in the Heat's last 13 games as a road favorite of between 6.5 and 12 points including a 4-0 record in that spot this season. The 'under' is 12-8 in Washington's last 20 contests following consecutive home defeats including an 8-4 mark this season. Off an upset loss at home, the Wiz have seen the 'under' go 15-3 in their last 18 games including 3-0 this season. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-31-24 | Red Sox +134 v. Mariners | 5-1 | Win | 134 | 8 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston over Seattle at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. The Mariners walked the Red Sox off on a Julio Rodriguez extra innings RBI single on Saturday, notching their second straight win in this series. I look for Boston to bounce back behind an underrated starter in Garrett Whitlock on Sunday. Whitlock had a fantastic Spring following a so-so 2023 campaign. While Whitlock did record an ERA north of five last season he was certainly better than that with a FIP nearly a full run lower. Bryce Miller will get the start for Seattle. He's considered among the 'big three' of young arms in the Mariners starting rotation but I do think he's a notch below both George Kirby and Logan Gilbert. Seattle continues to have a tough time manufacturing offense and at this price, I'm willing to fade it on Sunday. Take Boston (8*). | |||||||
03-31-24 | Tennessee v. Purdue -3.5 | 66-72 | Win | 100 | 17 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Purdue minus the points over Tennessee at 2:20 pm et on Sunday. I'm of the belief that there is a substantial gap between the best team remaining in the NCAA Tournament, that being Connecticut, and the rest of the field. With that said, I also feel there's a significant gap between the top two teams remaining, and I include Purdue in that group, and the rest of the field. Purdue is playing its best basketball of the season right now and I don't think Tennessee will have enough in its arsenal to keep pace on Sunday afternoon. The Boilermakers rank third in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency this season according to KenPom. The Volunteers check in 28th in that same category. Of course, even if the Boilers aren't shooting the lights out, they're consistently getting to the free throw line. Tennessee got just enough offensive production to outlast a hot-and-cold shooting Creighton squad last time out. I simply feel Purdue is a different animal and will ultimately will its way to victory on Sunday. Take Purdue (8*). | |||||||
03-30-24 | Clemson +3 v. Alabama | Top | 82-89 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 1 m | Show |
Elite Eight Game of the Year. My selection is on Clemson plus the points over Alabama at 8:45 pm et on Saturday. Clemson will try to accomplish what another ACC squad was unable to do two nights ago and that's topple Alabama on its way to a Final Four appearance on Saturday night. The ACC has exceeded expectations in this tournament, even if the Tar Heels did fall short against the Crimson Tide on Thursday. Clemson enters riding a red hot 21-11 ATS tear in an underdog role including a 9-1 ATS mark in that situation this season. Note that Alabama falls into a rather poor situation here as it has gone 17-28 ATS in its last 45 contests after scoring 85 points or more in its previous game, as is the case here, including an 11-11 ATS record in that situation this season. Clemson has climbed all the way inside KenPom's top-20 rankings nationally, closing the gap on 14th-ranked Alabama as this tournament has gone on. Clearly the Tigers were underrated entering this tournament but they come off their best offensive showing (29-of-59 shooting against Arizona) and have held four straight opponents to 25 or fewer made field goals (Alabama has held just one of its last six foes to fewer than 29). Take Clemson (10*). | |||||||
03-30-24 | Yankees v. Astros -128 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -128 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Houston over New York at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. The Astros have dropped the first two games of this series but I look for them to bounce back behind impressive young starter Hunter Brown on Saturday. Not that Spring Training numbers ultimately mean all that much but Brown was electric during exhibition play, posting a 2.12 ERA and 1.18 WHIP with 17 strikeouts in 17 innings of work. The long season ultimately wore on Brown in 2023 but I look for a big sophomore campaign for the right-hander and this is a big stage for him in his season debut, facing the mighty Yankees off consecutive losses. New York will hand the ball to newly-acquired Marcus Stroman. He's coming off an All-Star campaign and makes the jump back to the American League. Note that Stroman's teams are just 11-19 (-3.2 net games) in his last 30 starts as an underdog priced between +125 and +175 including a 2-6 (-2.9 net games) record in that situation over the last three seasons. Take Houston (10*). | |||||||
03-30-24 | Grizzlies v. Magic OVER 207.5 | 88-118 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Memphis and Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. The Magic are in a back-to-back situation after suffering a three-point loss at home against the Clippers last night. That contest totalled only 197 points but I'm anticipating a higher-scoring affair as Orlando welcomes the Grizzlies to Amway Center on Saturday. Memphis has been getting its shots off regardless the opposition lately, hoisting up 94 or more field goal attempts in four of its last five games. While it does face a difficult challenge against one of the league's best defensive teams in Orlando on Saturday, it's worth noting that the Magic have allowed three of their last four foes to connect on 40 or more field goals (after holding 10 of their previous 11 opponents to fewer than 40). Orlando's offense has struggled in the last two games but it should be happy to see Memphis on Saturday, noting the Grizzlies have been tagged for 42 or more made field goals in six of their last seven contests including 45 or more in four of those matchups. Note that the 'over' is 38-33 in Memphis' last 71 games as a road underdog including an 18-13 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 23-19 in Orlando's last 42 contests after allowing 100 points or less in its previous game including a 12-9 record in that spot this season. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
03-29-24 | 76ers v. Cavs UNDER 212.5 | 114-117 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Cleveland at 7:40 pm et on Friday. The Cavaliers are coming off a much higher-scoring contest than expected in Charlotte two nights ago as they were upset by the Hornets. Meanwhile, the 76ers dropped a one-point decision at home against the Clippers. Philadelphia has held an incredible 10 of its last 11 opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, however, it has been limited to 41 or fewer made field goals in 18 of its last 20 contests. Cleveland actually allowed Charlotte to get off only 76 field goal attempts last time out. The Hornets quite simply shot the lights out in a quick revenge spot. Note that the Cavs have limited five straight opponents to 85 or fewer field goal attempts. Cleveland has hoisted up 86 or fewer field goal attempts in seven straight contests. The 'under' is 39-23 in the 76ers last 62 games as a road underdog including a 12-6 mark in that situation this season. Additionally, the 'under' is 33-28 in Cleveland's last 61 games when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent including a 7-5 record in that spot this season. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
03-29-24 | NC State v. Marquette -6.5 | 67-58 | Loss | -105 | 57 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Marquette minus the points over N.C. State at 7:05 pm et on Friday. N.C. State is on an incredible run right now but has certainly had some good fortune along the way. The Wolfpack are the lowest ranked team remaining in the country according to KenPom's metrics and it's not particularly close (they rank 53rd - the next closest team is Clemson at 23rd). Marquette has quietly delivered the cash in 16 of its last 24 games. Also of note, the Golden Eagles have seen the straight-up winner go 23-2 ATS in their last 25 contests. I like their chances of keeping that run going on Friday. N.C. State is a long-term 4-7 ATS in its last 11 games following seven straight wins, as is the case here. The pace of this game projects to be played right in Marquette's wheelhouse as it has gone 27-9 ATS in its last 36 games with the total set in the 150's including a 13-5 ATS mark in that situation this season. Take Marquette (8*). | |||||||
03-29-24 | Blue Jays v. Rays -113 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 22 h 33 m | Show |
A.L. East Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Toronto at 6:50 pm et on Friday. The Blue Jays smashed the Rays on Opening Day but I look for Tampa Bay to return the favor on Friday. Jays starter Chris Bassitt didn't have a great Spring, allowing 28-of-93 batters he faced to reach base. Last season, he recorded a middling 4.28 FIP and 1.18 WHIP. Aaron Civale will counter for Tampa Bay. He posted an ERA north of five during the Spring but did allow only 13-of-47 batters he faced to reach base. Civale saw his home runs allowed take a jump in 2023 but the rest of his numbers were fine. He has recorded a 3.57 FIP or better in each of the last three seasons. Take Tampa Bay (10*). | |||||||
03-28-24 | San Diego State v. Connecticut -10.5 | Top | 52-82 | Win | 100 | 34 h 35 m | Show |
Sweet 16 Game of the Year. My selection is on Connecticut minus the points over San Diego State at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. This is of course a rematch of last year's championship game that Connecticut won in a rout, 76-59. I don't expect this game to be any closer - in fact, I think the Huskies hold an even greater advantage in this year's matchup. San Diego State checks in off wins over UAB and Yale with the latter victory coming in blowout fashion. Keep in mind, the Aztecs haven't covered the spread in consecutive games since February 13th and 16th. Connecticut on the other hand is on an ATS tear, grabbing the cash in three straight and 11 of its last 13 games. The Huskies rank inside the country's top-10 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency according to KenPom. Note that San Diego State is just 8-10 ATS in its last 18 games as an underdog including a 2-5 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Aztecs are also just 26-29 ATS in their last 55 contests following consecutive wins including a 4-10 ATS record in that spot this season. Meanwhile, UConn is 61-39 ATS in its last 100 games as a favorite including 24-11 ATS this season. The Huskies are quite simply built for postseason basketball, riding a long-term 36-23 ATS run in NCAA Tournament action including an 8-1 ATS mark in their last nine contests in the Big Dance. Take Connecticut (10*). | |||||||
03-28-24 | Flyers -152 v. Canadiens | 1-4 | Loss | -152 | 23 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over Montreal at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. We'll fade the Canadiens off their big upset win in Colorado two nights ago. They're not in an ideal spot on Thursday as they return home on just one day of rest following a five-game western road trip. Note that Montreal is 5-15 (-6.9 net games) in its last 20 games following consecutive wins, as is the case here, including an 0-5 (-5.0 net games) record in that situation this season. The Flyers took the most recent meeting between these teams and that's notable as Montreal is 26-67 (-21.0 net games) in its last 93 contests when seeking revenge for a same season loss against an opponent including a 3-19 (-14.6 net games) mark in that spot this season. Philadelphia will look to bounce back following consecutive losses noting that it is 11-6 (+6.4 net games) in that situation this season. Take Philadelphia (8*). | |||||||
03-27-24 | Clippers -5.5 v. 76ers | 108-107 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Philadelphia at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. What's wrong with the Clippers? That question has come up countless times after they went 0-2 on their most recent homestand, including a blowout loss against the same 76ers that they'll face on Wednesday. After a red hot run that lasted from early December until early February, the wheels have come off for Los Angeles as it has dropped the cash in 16 of its last 22 games. I do like the revenge spot on Wednesday, however, noting that the Clippers are 26-21 ATS in their last 47 games following an upset loss, as is the case here, including a 7-3 ATS mark in that situation this season. Better still, they're 6-1 ATS in their last seven contests following consecutive home defeats including a 2-0 ATS record in that spot this season. Philadelphia checks in 11-13 ATS in its last 24 games as a home underdog including a 2-5 ATS record in that role this season. The 76ers will be playing on just one day of rest following a four-game western road trip and looking ahead to playing five of their next six games away from home as well. Take Los Angeles (8*). | |||||||
03-27-24 | Cavs v. Hornets UNDER 206.5 | Top | 111-118 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Charlotte at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. These two teams found their way 'over' the total in the front half of this home-and-home set on Monday in Cleveland. I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday in Charlotte. Note that the Cavaliers knocked down 46 field goals in that victory. They simply shot the lights out but were by no means volume-shooters, getting off just 86 field goal attempts. In fact, the Cavs have hoisted up 86 or fewer field goal attempts in six straight and eight of their last nine games. They haven't connected on more than 40 field goals in consecutive games since a three-game streak from February 25th to 28th. The Hornets have been far worse offensively in recent weeks. They've made good on 38 or fewer field goals in five straight games. They've have a tough enough time getting shots off let alone knocking them down, attempting just 82, 79, 84 and 80 field goals over their last four games. While Charlotte is by no means an elite defensive team, it has at least been able to limit its opponents scoring opportunities, holding eight of its last 10 foes to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. Note that the 'under' is 10-4 in the Cavs last 14 games as a road favorite of between 6.5 and 12 points including an 8-0 record in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 25-18 in the Cavs last 43 contests following consecutive 'over' results, as is the case here, including an 8-6 record in that spot this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 22-11 in the Hornets last 33 games as a home underdog of between 6.5 and 12 points including a 14-5 mark this season. Finally, the 'under' is 29-20 in Charlotte's last 49 contests when seeking revenge for a double-digit road loss against an opponent including an 11-8 record this season. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-26-24 | Ducks v. Seattle Kraken -1.5 | 0-4 | Win | 130 | 25 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle -1.5 goals over Anaheim at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Kraken exceeded expectations last season but haven't come close to doing so here in 23-24 as they'll miss the playoffs. I do expect them to show some pride on Tuesday as they look to snap their eight-game losing streak and bounce back from an ugly 5-1 home loss at the hands of the Canadiens on Sunday. They're well-positioned to do just that against a Ducks squad that has been outscored by an average margin of 1.2 goals per game on the road this season. Note that Anaheim is 13-42 (-21.8 net games) in its last 55 games when seeking revenge for a one-goal loss against an opponent, as is the case here, including a 3-15 (-9.6 net games) mark in that situation this season. Seattle hasn't produced many victories lately but 11 of its last 14 wins have come by two goals or more. The price is right to back the Kraken on the puck-line on Tuesday. Take Seattle -1.5 goals (8*). | |||||||
03-26-24 | Lakers v. Bucks OVER 232 | Top | 128-124 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Bucks are well-positioned to go off offensively on Tuesday as they wrap up their three-game homestand against an injury-depleted Lakers squad. Milwaukee has connected on 51, 45, 43 and 49 field goals over its last four games. It has also been playing faster, hoisting up more than 90 field goal attempts in three of its last four contests. That spells trouble for a matador-like Lakers defense that has allowed more than 40 made field goals in seven of its last eight games, yielding at least 96 field goal attempts in four straight games and 92 or more in 10 of its last 11 contests. I do think the Lakers offense can be brought along for the ride in this game so to speak. Keep in mind, the Bucks have a poor track record as home favorites, going 57-62 ATS in their last 119 games in that role including a 15-18 ATS record this season. Milwaukee has allowed three of its last four opponents to connect on at least 40 field goals. The 'over' is 54-33 in the Lakers last 87 contests as a road underdog including a 13-8 record in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 27-25 in the Bucks last 52 games as a home favorite of six points or less including a 13-9 mark this season. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
03-25-24 | 76ers v. Kings UNDER 222 | 96-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Sacramento at 10:10 pm et on Monday. The 76ers entered Sunday's game against the Clippers on a 7-0-1 'under' run but that game ended up sailing 'over' the posted total. I look for a return to 'normal' on Monday as Philadelphia wraps up its western road swing with a stop in Sacramento. Philadelphia has now held eight of its last nine opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. It has also limited 10 of its last 11 foes to 41 or fewer made field goals. While the Sixers did bust out for 48 made field goals against the Clips on Sunday they had been limited to 41 or fewer in 11 straight and 16 of their last 17 contests prior to that. The Kings figure to offer considerable resistance here as they've held eight straight and 11 of their last 12 opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, Sacramento has connected on 42 or fewer field goals itself in four of its last five contests. Note that the 'under' is 45-30 in the Kings last 75 games as a home favorite including a 19-10 mark in that situation this season. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
03-25-24 | Grizzlies v. Nuggets OVER 213.5 | Top | 103-128 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Memphis and Denver at 9:10 pm et on Monday. The Grizzlies are coming off a low-scoring victory in San Antonio on Friday but I look for a different story to unfold as they head to Denver to face the Nuggets on Monday. Note that Memphis has been trending toward higher-scoring affairs on its current road trip having hoisted up 92 and 96 field goal attempts in regulation time in two of three contests. Denver has actually proven vulnerable defensively, or at least more than usual, in recent contests allowing three of its last four foes to connect on at least 42 field goals. Speaking of vulnerability at the defensive end of the floor, Memphis has allowed 44 or more made field goals in regulation time in four of its last seven games. The Nuggets continue to thrive offensively having connected on 40 or more field goals in 14 of their last 16 games and 45 or more nine times over that stretch. Note that the 'over' is 37-33 in Memphis' last 70 games as a road underdog including a 17-13 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 10-6 in the Nuggets last 16 home games with the total set between 210 and 219.5 points including a 3-2 record in that spot this season. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
03-24-24 | Grand Canyon +6 v. Alabama | Top | 61-72 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 20 m | Show |
Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Grand Canyon plus the points over Alabama at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. I think most are still sleeping on Grand Canyon, even after its upset win over St. Mary's in the opening round of this tournament. The Antelopes aren't some upstart - they actually check in 50th in the country according to KenPom's overall rankings. They do everything reasonably well and play at a fast enough pace to not get overwhelmed by Alabama in this particular matchup. The Crimson Tide prevailed by double-digits against Charleston in the opening round. They continue to thrive offensively but can be had defensively, ranking just 117th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season according to KenPom. Note that Grand Canyon is 12-7 ATS in its last 19 games as an underdog including a 3-0 ATS mark in that situation this season. Alabama did cover the spread in its tournament opener but remains just 8-12 ATS in its last 20 NCAA Tournament contests including a 2-3 ATS record over the last three seasons. Take Grand Canyon (10*). | |||||||
03-24-24 | Warriors v. Wolves OVER 218.5 | 110-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Golden State and Minnesota at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. The Warriors continue to give up far too many scoring opportunities having allowed four straight opponents to get off more than 90 field goal attempts. In fact, nine of their last 11 opponents have connected on more than 40 field goals. Minnesota has been far stingier defensively - one of the best defensive teams in the league, in fact. However, Golden State has been rather matchup-proof from an offensive standpoint, knocking down more than 40 field goals in 11 of its last 13 contests. I do think the Warriors will put up a fight in this game off that tough home loss against the Pacers on Friday. The Timberwolves have been as steady as they've been all season offensively in recent weeks, connecting on 40 or more field goals in five straight and seven of their last eight games. The 'over' is 44-36 in Golden State's last 80 games as an underdog including a 16-10 record in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 12-10 in the Timberwolves last 22 contests with the total set between 210 and 219.5 including a 6-3 record in that spot this season. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
03-24-24 | James Madison v. Duke UNDER 148.5 | 55-93 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between James Madison and Duke at 5:15 pm et on Sunday. I think we saw a pretty good blueprint of what these two teams want to do in this tournament in the opening round on Saturday, even if both did end up shooting poorly. James Madison will be an underdog throughout the Big Dance and I think there's a path to success if it can effectively shorten proceedings and limit scoring opportunities for the opposition. Duke doesn't play at all that fast of a pace, ranking 236th in the country in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. Note that the Blue Devils have held five of their last seven opponents to 56 or fewer field goal attempts. Only one of James Madison's last six foes has managed to get off 60 or more field goal attempts. The 'under' is 21-15 in James Madison's last 36 games following a double-digit win including a 13-6 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 30-24 in Duke's last 54 contests following an ATS victory including a 10-8 record in that spot this season. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
03-23-24 | Oregon v. Creighton UNDER 146 | Top | 73-86 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 22 m | Show |
Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Oregon and Creighton at 9:40 pm et on Saturday. Oregon's opening round victory over South Carolina didn't have much business getting 'over' the total or certainly not reaching 160 total points. The Ducks actually got off just 47 field goal attempts in that contest while holding South Carolina to 25-of-56 shooting. Oregon quite simply shot the lights out but I think it will be hard-pressed to repeat that performance against Creighton on Saturday. While the Blue Jays are known for their offensive prowess they can play some defense as well. Note that they check in ranked 26th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season. Both teams rank around the 200 mark in terms of adjusted tempo so neither team plays exceptionally fast. Note that the 'under' is 24-21 in Oregon's last 45 games following an ATS win including an 8-7 record in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 15-12 in Creighton's last 27 contests following a win by 15 points or more including a 7-6 mark in that spot this season. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-23-24 | Kings v. Magic UNDER 216 | 109-107 | Push | 0 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Sacramento and Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. The Magic are coming off consecutive 'over' results but I look for a different story to unfold on Saturday. Sacramento has seen the 'under' cash in six of its last seven contests. The Kings have held seven straight opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals. They'll face a challenge against a consistent Magic offense here but Sacramento has been relatively matchup-proof defensively having limited 21 of its last 24 opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. Orlando has held an incredible 13 straight opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. Like the Kings, the Magic are also limiting their opponents scoring opportunities, giving up 88 or fewer field goal attempts in an incredible 12 straight and 16 of their last 17 games. At home, Orlando should be able to dictate the pace and it has hoisted up 88 or fewer field goal attempts in 31 of its last 33 contests. The 'under' is 41-29 in Sacramento's last 70 games as a road underdog including an 11-7 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 13-4 in Orlando's last 17 contests when seeking revenge for a loss by three points or less against an opponent, as is the case here, including a 6-1 record in that spot this season. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
03-23-24 | Washington State v. Iowa State -6 | 56-67 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Iowa State minus the points over Washington State at 6:10 pm et on Saturday. Washington State pulled off a minor upset win over Drake in the opening round but I look for the Cougars run to end against Iowa State on Saturday. Note that Washington State has only faced the 84th most difficult schedule in the country this season according to KenPom. Iowa State on the other hand has gone up against the 45th toughest slate of opponents and checks in ranked as the sixth ranked team in the country according to KenPom's overall rankings. The Cougars are just 21-28 ATS in their last 49 contests following an ATS win including an 8-9 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Cyclones are quite simply one of the best bets in the country this season having gone 24-10 ATS to date and are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 contests after scoring 80 points or more in their previous game including a 7-3 ATS record in that spot this season. Take Iowa State (8*). | |||||||
03-23-24 | Gonzaga v. Kansas UNDER 151.5 | 89-68 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Gonzaga and Kansas at 3:15 pm et on Saturday. I understand the logic behind the high total in this matchup. After all, both teams exploded offensively in the opening round with Gonzaga scoring 86 points in a rout of McNeese State and Kansas putting up 93 points in a narrow escape against Samford. I don't think we'll see that same type of contest on Saturday, however. Kansas ranks 13th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season according to KenPom but 61st in adjusted offensive efficiency. It's the reverse for Gonzaga as it ranks eighth in adjusted offensive efficiency but 42nd in adjusted defensive efficiency. All that to say that the 'under' is 24-23 in the Bulldogs last 47 games following an 'over' result including an 8-5 record in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 27-25 in Gonzaga's last 52 contests following a win by 15 points or more including a 7-5 mark in that spot this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 61-35 in Kansas' last 96 games as an underdog including an 8-5 record in that situation over the last three seasons. When playing with one day or less of rest, the Jayhawks have seen the 'under' go 16-8 over the last three seasons including a perfect 4-0 record this season. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
03-22-24 | Grand Canyon +5.5 v. St. Mary's | 75-66 | Win | 100 | 26 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on Grand Canyon plus the points over St. Mary's at 10:05 pm et on Friday. As is often the case, I wonder whether St. Mary's used up everything it had in the tank in climbing the WCC mountain to defeat Gonzaga in the tournament championship game last weekend. Grand Canyon got a taste of NCAA Tournament action last year, falling by 12 points in the first round against aforementioned Gonzaga. It enters this tournament ranked 53rd in the country this season according to KenPom. Note that St. Mary's is just 6-9 ATS in its last 15 NCAA Tournament games and 11-14 ATS in its last 25 contests following consecutive ATS victories, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Grand Canyon is 11-7 ATS in its last 18 games as an underdog including a 2-0 ATS mark this season. Take Grand Canyon (8*). | |||||||
03-22-24 | 76ers +8 v. Lakers | 94-101 | Win | 100 | 16 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Friday. The 76ers offense has struggled but I think they can be brought along for the ride against the Lakers on Friday. Los Angeles has allowed six straight and 27 of its last 28 opponents to connect on more than 40 field goals. In fact, the Lakers have allowed eight of their last nine opponents to get off at least 92 field goal attempts. On the flip side, Los Angeles knocked down 52 field goals in its most recent game against Atlanta on Monday. Note that the Lakers are just 1-4 straight-up following a game in which they made good on 50 or more field goals this season. Philadelphia checks in 27-23 ATS in its last 50 games following a road loss including a 9-6 ATS mark in that situation this season. Los Angeles is 15-17 ATS in its last 32 contests following a double-digit home victory including a 4-6 ATS record in that spot this season. Take Philadelphia (8*). | |||||||
03-22-24 | Pacers v. Warriors UNDER 240 | Top | 123-111 | Win | 100 | 16 h 58 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Friday. The Pacers aren't the same team they were earlier in the season, playing at a slower pace and doing a much better job defensively. They check in with the 'under' having cashed in 11 of their last 14 games and we'll go that way again as they continue their road trip in San Francisco on Friday. Note that Indiana has held three straight opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. Only six of its last 17 opponents have managed to get off more than 90 field goal attempts. The Warriors have shot incredibly well over the last three games but are likely to face some resistance here. On the flip side, they've held five of their last six and 20 of their last 25 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 26-21 in the Pacers last 47 games as a road underdog of six points or less including an 8-6 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 9-6 in the Warriors last 15 contests following an ATS win as a double-digit favorite, as is the case here, including a perfect 2-0 record in that spot this season. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-22-24 | Yale +13 v. Auburn | 78-76 | Win | 100 | 20 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Yale plus the points over Auburn at 4:15 pm et on Friday. Auburn is a trendy pick to win it all but I expect it to get a scare against Ivy League opponent Yale on Friday afternoon. The Tigers are less than week removed from winning the SEC Tournament in blowout fashion against Florida. Meanwhile, Yale was nearly upset in the Ivy League Final against Brown, prevailing by a single point but never sniffing out an ATS cover. The Bulldogs are no pushovers. They've faced the 128th most difficult schedule in the country this season - not bad by Ivy League standards - and have hung tough sitting inside the top-100 both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. What I really like about Yale in this particular matchup is their ability to be efficient on offense while also limiting their opponents' possessions. The Bulldogs rank 329th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. They've been the picture of consistency from an offensive standpoint, connecting on 25 or more field goals in 25 of 31 games. Note that Yale is a long-term 137-120 ATS as an underdog including a 13-11 ATS mark over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, Auburn is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games when seeded number four or higher in the NCAA Tournament, as is the case here. Take Yale (8*). | |||||||
03-22-24 | UAB +7 v. San Diego State | Top | 65-69 | Win | 100 | 18 h 51 m | Show |
First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on UAB plus the points over San Diego State at 1:45 pm et on Friday. I don't think UAB is getting enough respect after beating three quality opponents in three days on its way to an AAC Tournament title last week. The Blazers have quietly put together a 20-12 ATS record in lined games this season. While few were paying attention back in November, they opened the campaign with an extremely tough three-game slate, at home against Bradley followed by neutral site contests against Clemson and Maryland. UAB went 2-1 ATS in those three contests with the lone defeat coming by two points against Bradley. Going back to January 14th the Blazers have rattled off an incredible 15 ATS victories in 19 games. San Diego State certainly took the Mountain West Conference Tournament seriously, reaching the final against New Mexico (it lost that game 68-61). I see this as a tough opening round draw for the Aztecs as the Blazers figure to push the pace and make them uncomfortable. UAB is efficient enough to back it up, ranking inside the country's top-60 in adjusted offensive efficiency this season (according to KenPom). A big reason why San Diego State has only managed to go 13-19 ATS this season is that it is good enough to be favored in most contests but doesn't generate enough scoring opportunities to cover those spreads. The Aztecs rank 266th in the country in adjusted tempo. UAB has connected on 30 or more field goals in five of its last eight games while San Diego State has reached that number just once since the end of January and six times all season. The Blazers have been a solid positive momentum play in recent years going 28-26 ATS in their last 54 games following an ATS win including a 13-6 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, San Diego State is just 22-27 ATS in its last 49 contests following an ATS loss including a 7-11 ATS record in that spot this season. Take UAB (10*). | |||||||
03-21-24 | Hawks +10 v. Suns | 115-128 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Phoenix at 10:40 pm et on Thursday. The Suns are coming off a win and cover last night at home against the 76ers but I expect them to have a tougher time covering the lofty pointspread against a rested Hawks squad on Thursday. The injuries are certainly piling up for Atlanta with Jalen Johnson the latest to go down. With that being said, the Suns have consistently been bringing the opposition along for the ride so to speak, regardless the competition level, allowing 90 or more field goal attempts in 26 of their last 30 games. They've allowed their foes to knock down at least 40 field goals in nine of their last 10 contests. On the flip side, Phoenix has hoisted up 90 or fewer field goal attempts in six of its last seven games. While Atlanta hasn't exactly been the picture of consistency at either end of the floor, it does check in having limited eight of its last 12 opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, the Hawks are finding their scoring opportunities, getting off more than 90 field goal attempts in three of their last five contests and connecting on 41 or more field goals in three straight games. Despite last night's victory, Phoenix is still just 20-29 ATS in its last 49 games as a home favorite of between 6.5 and 12 points including a 2-6 ATS mark in that situation this season. Worse still, the Suns are 14-35 ATS in their last 49 contests following a double-digit home win including a 1-8 ATS showing in that spot this season. While there are numerous fade signs flashing when it comes to the Hawks, they have reeled off four straight wins in this particular series, both SU and ATS including three in outright underdog fashion. Take Atlanta (8*). | |||||||
03-21-24 | Drake v. Washington State OVER 138 | 61-66 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Drake and Washington State at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. Washington State enters this tournament off three straight 'under' results but that streak can be easily explained. The Cougars first faced Washington with an inflated total set in the mid-140's off consecutive 'over' results. That game actually surpassed the total we're working with tonight, reaching 142 points. Next they exploded for just shy of 80 points but Stanford wasn't a capable dance partner producing only 62 points in a blowout result (that also still eclipsed the total we're working with here). Finally, Washington State was ousted from the Pac-12 Tournament in a defensive struggle against Colorado (we saw what the Buffaloes are capable of defensively in their win over Boise State in First Four action last night). Drake wants to push the pace and is efficient offensively ranking well inside the country's top-50 in adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom. It doesn't have a defense to go along with it, however, as the Bulldogs enter this tourney ranked 72nd in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, having allowed nine of their last 11 opponents to knock down at least 26 field goals. Note that the 'over' is 22-11 in Drake's last 33 games with the total set in the 130's including a 4-2 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 17-14 in Washington State's last 31 contests after allowing 60 points or less in its previous game including a 7-2 record in that spot this season. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
03-21-24 | Predators v. Panthers -170 | 3-0 | Loss | -170 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Florida over Nashville at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. The Predators enter this game on the heels of three straight wins to give themselves considerable breathing room in the Western Conference playoff race. They're now eight points ahead of the 'first team out', the Minnesota Wild, with a game-in-hand. With that being said, they're not catching the third place team in the Central Division and they have a five-point cushion over the second Wild Card team, the Vegas Golden Knights. Florida checks in on a rare losing streak having dropped each of its last two games. The Panthers can still earn a split of this brief two-game homestand before a tough back-to-back set in New York and Philadelphia on the weekend. Note that Florida is 13-3 (+10.6 net games) in its last 16 games following consecutive losses by two goals or more, as is the case here, including a perfect 4-0 (+4.6 net games) record in that situation this season. Meanwhile, Nashville is 9-14 (-7.9 net games) in its last 23 contests following a home win by three goals or more including a 2-5 (-4.4 net games) mark in that spot this season. Take Florida (8*). | |||||||
03-21-24 | Colorado State +2.5 v. Texas | 44-56 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado State plus the points over Texas at 6:50 pm et on Thursday. Texas has had a real problem with stepping up in big games away from home this season and has been a bad bet overall, going 12-20 ATS. Noting that the Longhorns are 34-41 ATS in their last 75 games as a favorite including a 7-14 ATS mark in that situation this season, I can't help but feel the wrong team is laying points in this particular matchup. Colorado State has been a solid positive momentum play in recent years, going 33-29 ATS when coming off a victory over the last three seasons including a 14-9 ATS record in that spot this season. Remember, the Rams defeated a pair of teams currently ranked higher than Texas according to KenPom in Creighton and Colorado earlier in the campaign. Take Colorado State (8*). | |||||||
03-21-24 | Nevada v. Dayton OVER 136.5 | 60-63 | Loss | -109 | 20 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Nevada and Dayton at 4:30 pm et on Thursday. This one won't be considered among the potential track meets in the opening round of the tournament but I expect it to get 'over' the reasonable total nonetheless. Nevada enters the tourney riding a six-game 'over' streak. Meanwhile, Dayton had its own six-game 'over' streak snapped in its upset loss against Duquesne in Atlantic-10 Tournament action last week. Neither team plays all that fast but both are ultra-efficient offensively and find ways to put points on the board. I think the matador-like defense of Dayton in particular is worth noting here as it has allowed five of its last seven opponents to get off at least 58 field goal attempts. Nevada's opponents have displayed a rock solid offensive floor, connecting on 23 or more field goals in five of their last six games and more than 20 in 14 of their last 17 contests. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
03-21-24 | Oregon v. South Carolina UNDER 133.5 | 87-73 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Oregon and South Carolina at 4 pm et on Thursday. We'll once again target PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh for a potentially low-scoring affair between Oregon and South Carolina on Thursday afternoon. Keep in mind, the last time this venue hosted NCAA Tournament first and second round action was in 2022 and the six games played here resulted in an average total of just 124.2 points. Oregon sits just inside the country's top-200 in terms of adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. Meanwhile, South Carolina ranks 354th (out of 362 Division I teams) in the same category. The Ducks certainly ramped up their defensive play down the stretch, holding each of their last four opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals on the way to a Pac-12 Tournament title. The Gamecocks didn't enjoy the same success as they met their demise at the hands of an ultra-athletic Auburn squad in the SEC Tournament. However, South Carolina does check in having held 12 of its last 14 opponents to fewer than 60 field goal attempts. On the season, the Gamecocks rank just three spots outside the country's top-50 in adjusted defensive efficiency. The 'under' is 9-6 in Oregon's last 15 games following consecutive ATS wins including a 3-2 mark in that situation this season. Additionally, the 'under' is 25-12 in South Carolina's last 37 non-conference affairs including a 7-6 record this season. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
03-21-24 | Akron v. Creighton UNDER 141.5 | Top | 60-77 | Win | 100 | 49 h 16 m | Show |
First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Akron and Creighton at 1:30 pm et on Thursday. Creighton tends to carry a reputation as an up-tempo offensive team and bettors are generally quick to support the 'over' in games involving the Blue Jays, especially at this time of year. We've already seen this total get bet up a couple of points and I believe it will prove too high. Pittsburgh's PPG Paints Arena last hosted NCAA Tournament first and second round action in 2022. The six games played in this venue totalled an average of only 124.2 total points with just one of those contests surpassing the total we're working with in this particular contest on Thursday. Akron will certainly have its work cut out for it on Thursday but it does likely come in with a gameplan in mind and that's slowing this game to a crawl. Note that the Zips rank 268th in the country (out of 362 Division I teams) in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. They're also inside the top-100 in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency. Considering Akron boasts the 162nd ranked offense (in terms of adjusted offensive efficiency) it doesn't figure to be interested in giving Creighton (and its 12th-ranked offense) any more possessions than it has to. Of note, the Blue Jays actually rank just outside the top-200 in adjusted tempo so it's not as if they're playing at a frenetic pace this season. Yes, they've been ultra-efficient but I do think playing at a larger venue like the one in Pittsburgh serves as an equalizer in a sense. The 'under' is 21-17 in Akron's last 38 games with the total set in the 140's including a 12-5 mark in that situation this season. Additionally, the 'under' is 27-13 in the Zips last 40 contests played on a neutral court as an underdog including a perfect 3-0 mark in that spot this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 29-18 in Creighton's last 47 postseason tournament games including 16-9 in its last 25 NCAA Tournament contests. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-21-24 | Duquesne +10.5 v. BYU | 71-67 | Win | 100 | 16 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Duquesne plus the points over BYU at 12:40 pm et on Thursday. I like the Dukes chances of hanging tough on Thursday as they look to build on the positive momentum gained from their incredible run to an Atlantic-10 Tournament title last week. BYU will only go as far as its three-point shooting takes it and this is a tough matchup in that regard. Duquesne holds the opposition to an average of just seven made threes per game including only six per contest away from home. The Dukes rank inside the top-30 in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. They play a chaotic brand of defense that produces turnovers. Turnovers lead to extra offensive possessions and against a BYU defense that ranks just 50th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, I look for the Dukes to get theirs. Take Duquesne (8*). | |||||||
03-20-24 | Wild v. Kings -145 | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Minnesota at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Wild bounced back from a 3-2 loss in St. Louis with a 4-0 drubbing of the lowly Ducks last night in Anaheim. That sets them up poorly as they wrap up their three-game road trip in Los Angeles on Wednesday. Note that Minnesota is 4-7 (-5.2 net games) when coming off a shutout performance over the last three seasons and a long-term 21-30 (-10.8 net games) when following up a road shutout. The Wild are also 14-25 (-23.3 net games) when coming off a road win in which they scored four goals or more. Additionally, Minnesota is 42-52 (-15.7 net games) when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the Kings are a steady 9-6 (+1.9 net games) after scoring six goals or more in their previous contest over the last three seasons, which is the situation here following last night's 6-2 rout of the Blackhawks. Take Los Angeles (8*). | |||||||
03-20-24 | 76ers v. Suns UNDER 220.5 | 102-115 | Win | 100 | 15 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. To say there's a low ceiling on the 76ers offense right now would be an understatement. Philadelphia has been held to 41 or fewer made field goals in nine straight and 14 of its last 15 games. The only occasion where it broke through that ceiling was on March 1st at home against the lowly Hornets. On the flip side, the 76ers continue to play tough defense. They've held six straight and 14 of their last 15 opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. Better still, they've limited nine straight foes to 41 or fewer made field goals. The Suns are coming off a bad defensive effort against the Bucks in Milwaukee on Sunday. They are capable of rising to the occasion in that department, however, as they've held nine of their last 14 opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. The Suns offense while carrying a reputation of playing fast, has gotten off fewer than 90 field goal attempts in two straight and five of their last six games. Note that the 'under' is 36-22 in the Sixers last 58 games as a road underdog including a 9-5 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 35-17 in Phoenix's last 52 contests when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent including a 10-3 record this season. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
03-20-24 | VCU v. Villanova UNDER 131 | Top | 70-61 | Push | 0 | 26 h 42 m | Show |
NIT Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between VCU and Villanova at 9 pm et on Wednesday. This game is flashing 'under' as two teams that are obviously disappointed to not be playing in the Big Dance match up in NIT action on Wednesday night in Villanova. VCU lost in a slugfest in the Atlantic-10 Championship against Duquesne. The Rams rank outside the top-100 in the country in terms of adjusted offensive efficiency and 302nd in adjusted tempo (both according to KenPom). Where VCU shines of course is at the defensive end of the floor, sitting 43rd in adjusted defensive efficiency. This is a matchup it figures to handle against a Villanova offense that has disappointed, ranking 84th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 350th in adjusted tempo. Only 12 Division I teams have played at a slower pace this season. The Wildcats have been even better than the Rams defensively this season, ranking 13th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. While there's always the chance we see a late scoring flurry in a game in this pointspread range, I'm willing to take my chances with the 'under'. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-19-24 | Cal-Irvine +7.5 v. Utah | Top | 75-84 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 16 m | Show |
NIT Game of the Week. My selection is on Cal-Irvine plus the points over Utah at 11 pm et on Tuesday. Utah probably feels like it deserved a better fate but the wins and losses simply didn't add up for the Utes to reach the NCAA Tournament. Here they are in the NIT and while Cal-Irvine won't catch a lot of attention by name recognition only, the Anteaters have the pedigree and the personnel to give Utah all it can handle on Tuesday night. Cal-Irvine enters the NIT on an offensive tear. The Anteaters have knocked down 30, 30, 31, 31, 28 and 32 field goals over their last six contests. That's to go along with a defense that ranks 40th in the country (in terms of KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency metric) - one spot above tonight's opponent, Utah. The Utes have quite simply been an unreliable bet since New Year's Eve, going 8-13 ATS over their last 21 games. While the Anteaters failed to deliver the cash in their most recent game against NCAA Tournament-bound Long Beach State, they've never lost more than two games in a row ATS this season and that happened only three times previously. In fact, the Anteaters are 23-16 ATS in their last 39 games following an ATS loss including a 9-3 ATS mark in that situation this season. Utah, meanwhile, has gone 57-69 ATS in its last 126 tournament games (in-season or postseason) including a 4-8 ATS record over the last three seasons. I simply feel the Utes are laying too many points on Tuesday. Take Cal-Irvine (10*). | |||||||
03-19-24 | Jets v. Rangers UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 4 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Winnipeg and New York at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The 'under' has cashed in six straight meetings in this series and I expect more of the same on Tuesday. Winnipeg has scored six goals in consecutive games but those came against the Ducks and Blue Jackets - two of the league's worst defensive teams. Here, the Jets will run into a red hot Rangers squad that has allowed just 2.6 goals per game on home ice this season. Winnipeg road games have totalled an average of only 5.4 goals. Note that the 'under' is 12-9 in the Jets last 21 games following three straight 'over' results, as is the case here, including a 3-1 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 40-23 in Winnipeg's last 63 contests following consecutive wins including a 15-8 record in that spot this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 9-4 in the Rangers last 13 games following consecutive wins by three goals or more and 10-4 in their last 14 contests after scoring five goals or more in two straight games. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-19-24 | Wagner v. Howard UNDER 128.5 | 71-68 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Wagner and Howard at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. This has the potential to be a slugfest between two little-known schools that have everything to play for in Dayton on Tuesday. Wagner ranks 361st (out of 362 Division I schools) in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. It got even slower offensively down the stretch, getting off 57, 54 and 49 field goal attempts over its last three contests. Howard wants to play faster but I don't think it will be given much room to breathe in this particular matchup. Note that Wagner checks in having held four straight opponents to 21 or fewer made field goals. The Bison actually played slower down the stretch, getting off 52 or fewer field goal attempts in six of their final 10 games. Limiting scoring opportunities is half the battle and in that regard, Howard has performed well, allowing 54 or fewer field goal attempts in seven of its last 11 contests. Wagner has connected on more than 23 field goals just once in its last eight games. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
03-18-24 | Wolves v. Jazz +7.5 | Top | 114-104 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 36 m | Show |
Northwest Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Utah plus the points over Minnesota at 9:10 pm et on Monday. The Timberwolves easily brushed aside the Jazz in the first half of this two-game set in Utah on Saturday. I expect Utah to provide a lot more resistance in Monday's rematch. Note that the T'Wolves have now won back-to-back road games. They're just 29-43 ATS in their last 72 contests following consecutive road wins including a 6-9 ATS record in that situation over the last three seasons. Minnesota is also just 3-9 ATS this season after holding consecutive opponents to 105 points or less. Meanwhile, Utah is 25-11 ATS in its last 36 games as a home underdog including a 13-7 ATS mark this season. Additionally, the Jazz are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games played with triple-revenge, as is the case here. Take Utah (10*). | |||||||
03-17-24 | Hawks +9.5 v. Clippers | 110-93 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Los Angeles at 9:40 pm et on Sunday. Atlanta has lost three games in a row both SU and ATS including the first two games of its current road trip. I look for the Hawks to put up a fight on Sunday in Los Angeles, however. The Clippers will be hard-pressed to cover spreads like this when they've gotten off 85 or fewer field goal attempts in eight of their last nine games. In stark contrast, the Hawks have hoisted up 87 or more field goal attempts in six of their last seven contests. The Clips aren't exactly locked-in defensively right now having allowed four straight opponents knock down more than 40 field goals. Note that the road team has covered the spread in four straight meetings in this series. The underdog has gone 7-5 ATS in the last 12 matchups. Finally, we'll note that Los Angeles is 48-57 ATS in its last 105 contests following a loss including a 10-13 ATS mark in that situation this season. Take Atlanta (8*). | |||||||
03-17-24 | Hurricanes v. Senators UNDER 6.5 | 7-2 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Carolina and Ottawa at 6:05 pm et on Sunday. The Hurricanes pulled out a 6-5 shootout win in Toronto last night but that's obviously not how head coach Rod Brind'Amour wants his team playing as the playoffs quickly approach. Carolina trailed that game 3-0 in the second period and by two goals with less than two minutes remaining. I look for the Canes to tighten things up considerably as they continue their road trip in Ottawa on Sunday. The Senators have shown some life lately, securing three straight victories including yesterday's overtime win on Long Island. Yesterday's contest marked their first in four games to go 'over' the total and they haven't seen consecutive games go 'over' the total since February 24th and 26th. Note that the 'under' is 20-18 in the Canes last 38 games played on the second of back-to-back days including a 7-4 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 41-32 in the Senators last 73 contests when seeking revenge for a loss in which their opponent scored four goals or more, as is the case here, including a 15-12 record in that spot this season. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
03-17-24 | Nuggets v. Mavs +2.5 | 105-107 | Win | 100 | 17 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Denver at 3:40 pm et on Sunday. We'll fade the Nuggets on Sunday as they come in feeling good about themselves off consecutive wins to open their current road trip. Note that Denver is just 24-27 ATS in its last 51 games as a road favorite of six points or less including an 8-10 ATS mark int hat situation this season. Meanwhile, Dallas checks in off a loss in Oklahoma City on Thursday and is 36-27 ATS in its last 63 contests following a road loss including a 7-6 ATS record in that spot this season. The Mavs are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games when seeking revenge for consecutive double-digit losses against an opponent, as is the case here. Take Dallas (8*). | |||||||
03-17-24 | Duquesne +2 v. VCU | Top | 57-51 | Win | 100 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
My selection is on Duquesne plus the points over VCU at 1 pm et on Sunday. We'll grab all the points we can get with Duquesne on Sunday as I think the Dukes might just be the better team in this matchup. It's not as if VCU is having all that memorable of a campaign. The Rams have gone 22-12 and their current three-game winning streak is their longest since a four-gamer from February 3rd to 16th. Duquesne checks in 23-11 on the season and riding a seven-game winning streak. The Dukes have turned incredibly stingy at the defensive end of the floor, rising all the way to 34th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season (according to KenPom). They've won consecutive matchups with VCU including a double-digit road win just 12 days ago. The Rams have the pedigree but the Dukes have the better team in my opinion. Take Duquesne (8*). | |||||||
03-16-24 | Avalanche v. Oilers -125 | 3-2 | Loss | -125 | 26 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on Edmonton over Colorado at 10:05 pm et on Saturday. I've been waiting to make this play since the Avalanche rallied from a 3-0 deficit to defeat the Canucks 4-3 in overtime and improve to 2-0 on their current road trip on Wednesday. The Oilers come in rested and having been at home since wrapping up a four-game eastern road swing last Sunday. They've rattled off back-to-back wins including a 7-2 cake walk against the Capitals on Wednesday. The Avs, meanwhile, have won five games in a row and have to be feeling pretty good about themselves after opening their current trip with consecutive victories. Keep in mind, they're still just 16-19 on the road this season. Let's face it, the Canucks let them off the hook on Wednesday. I don't expect the Oilers to do the same on Saturday. Edmonton is 26-17 in its last 43 games after scoring six goals or more in its previous contest including a 5-3 mark in that situation this season. In an odd scheduling quirk, this will be the first of three matchups between these division opponents this season. Look for the Oilers to make a statement on Saturday. Take Edmonton (8*). | |||||||
03-16-24 | Warriors v. Lakers UNDER 237 | Top | 128-121 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Los Angeles at 8:40 pm et on Saturday. Steph Curry is expected to return for the Warriors on Saturday and they could use the offensive boost as they've been held to 44 or fewer made field goals in eight of their last 11 games. They'll run into a Lakers team that has shown signs of life defensively recently, limiting three straight and four of their last five foes to 46 or fewer made field goals (that's actually progress given the way they had been playing). While the Lakers have been shooting well themselves, they're playing with a relatively small margin for error having gotten off 83 or fewer field goal attempts in four of their last five contests. Meanwhile, Golden State has limited the opposition to 44 or fewer made field goals in six of its last eight games. Note that the 'under' is 27-16 in Golden State's last 43 games played on two days' rest including a 6-3 mark this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 20-17 in the Lakers last 37 contests played in the same situation including a 7-4 record this season. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-16-24 | NC State v. North Carolina -9 | Top | 84-76 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
Conference Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on North Carolina minus the points over N.C. State at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. N.C. State has gone on an incredible run to keep its NCAA Tournament hopes alive this week in D.C. but I expect its run to end here. There's obviously no love lost between these in-state rivals. The last meeting between the Wolfpack and Tar Heels was decided by only nine points but North Carolina was the better team by perhaps an even wider margin as it absolutely dominated the second half. Here, the Tar Heels come off a scare against Pittsburgh yesterday as they once again needed a big second half to pull away for a seven-point win. I expect a sharper performance from North Carolina here and it catches N.C. State off a late rally that saw it force overtime before prevailing against Virginia last night. Now the Wolfpack will play their fifth game in as many days and while they're hungry to earn that NCAA Tourney berth, I expect talent to win out on this occasion. North Carolina hasn't lost a game since February 13th at Syracuse and while it will be playing its third game in three days, the first of those contests was a glorified scrimmage in a 92-67 rout of Florida State on Thursday. Take North Carolina (10*). | |||||||
03-16-24 | Cavs v. Rockets UNDER 215.5 | 103-117 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Houston at 5:10 pm et on Saturday. The Rockets shot the lights out in their most recent game but that came against the lowly Wizards. They've actually gotten off just 84, 80 and 87 field goal attempts over their last three games and now face a stingy Cavaliers defense that has limited four of its last five opponents to 84 or fewer field goal attempts. Like Houston, Cleveland is also coming off a strong offensive showing last time out against the Pelicans. It has still been held to 40 or fewer made field goals in seven of its last eight contests and 44 or fewer in 15 of its last 18 overall. The Rockets last game snapped a streak of seven straight contests in which they had limited the opposition to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. That was only due to the fact that Washington was desperately trying to get back in the game down big most of the way. Note that the 'under' is 14-12 in Cleveland's last 26 games following a win by 20 points or more, as is the case here, including a 5-3 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 48-45 in Houston's last 93 contests as a home underdog including a 12-6 record this season. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
03-16-24 | Mississippi State v. Auburn -8 | 66-73 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Auburn minus the points over Mississippi State at 1 pm et on Saturday. I would expect Auburn to lay waste to Mississippi State on Saturday as the Tigers come off a glorified scrimmage against an overmatched South Carolina squad yesterday. The Bulldogs kept their Cinderella SEC Tournament run going with a rout of heavily-favored Tennessee. The Vols clearly got caught looking past Mississippi State but I don't anticipate fourth-ranked (according to KenPom's overall rankings) Auburn to suffer a similar fate on Saturday. The Tigers do everything well, ranked in the top-10 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency while also checking in 57th in adjusted tempo (all according to KenPom). Mississippi State, while respectable in all departments, pales in comparison and sits 27th in KenPom's overall rankings. Auburn learned its lesson in its first regular season meeting with Mississippi State, suffering a six-point road defeat before exacting its revenge in a 15-point victory at home on March 2nd. Playing three games in as many days catches up with the Bulldogs here. Take Auburn (8*). | |||||||
03-15-24 | NC State v. Virginia -3.5 | 73-65 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Virginia minus the points over N.C. State at 9:30 pm et on Friday. Off its big upset win over Duke yesterday, we'll fade N.C. State on Friday as it faces a much different opponent in Virginia. The Cavaliers went through a tough stretch this season but have come out of it ok and I think this is a favorable matchup for them stylistically on Friday night. The low posted total tells us all we need to know as Virginia should be able to dictate the tempo, checking in ranked as the slowest-paced team in the entire country according to KenPom's adjusted tempo metric. N.C. State emptied the tank in yesterday's upset victory over Duke. The Wolfpack are a middling bunch in my opinion and I expect them to fall short here. Take Virginia (8*). | |||||||
03-15-24 | Clippers v. Pelicans -6 | 104-112 | Win | 100 | 14 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Pelicans got schooled by an injury-depleted Cavaliers squad, on their home floor no less, two nights ago but I look for them to bounce back as they catch the Clippers in the second of back-to-backs on Friday. Los Angeles took care of business in Chicago last night, winning virtually wire-to-wire over the Bulls to snap a brief two-game skid. Interestingly, they're just 2-4 ATS over their last six games with both of those wins coming against Chicago. The Pelicans are just one game removed from a four-game winning streak and they're one of the league's few healthy teams at this late stage of the regular season. Los Angeles is just 23-29 ATS in its last 52 games against Southwest Division opponents including a 7-8 ATS mark this season. Meanwhile, New Orleans is 20-12 ATS in its last 32 games following an upset loss including an 8-5 ATS record in that situation this season. Take New Orleans (8*). | |||||||
03-15-24 | Wisconsin v. Northwestern UNDER 137.5 | 70-61 | Win | 100 | 18 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Wisconsin and Northwestern at 2:30 pm et on Friday. Wisconsin exploded for 87 points in yesterday's rout of Maryland. I don't expect it to enjoy the same offensive success on Friday as it draws Northwestern in Big Ten Tournament quarter-final action. Note that the Badgers preferred pace is slow, ranking 307th in the country in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. The same goes for the Wildcats, in fact Northwestern checks in 342nd (out of 362 Division I teams) in adjusted tempo. While the Badgers offense has been ultra-efficient, this will be the Wildcats second time seeing them this season after holding them to just 44 field goal attempts in the first matchup back in January. Wisconsin shot the lights out in that game but the final score still reached 'only' 134 total points. You would have to go back four meetings in this series to find the last time a contest totalled more than 134 points. The defense tends to ratchet up as this tournament goes. Case in point, last year's quarter-final round saw the four games total 135, 126, 132 (overtime game) and 130 points. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
03-14-24 | Mavs v. Thunder -9.5 | Top | 119-126 | Loss | -113 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Oklahoma City minus the points over Dallas at 10 pm et on Thursday. Tough spot for the Mavericks here as they hit the road in the second of back-to-backs off a double-digit home win over the Warriors last night and on the heels of four straight victories. While Golden State wasn't able to take advantage last night, Dallas does continue to give up too many scoring opportunities on a nightly basis. The Mavs have allowed five of their last eight opponents to get off at least 92 field goal attempts. Oklahoma City figures to take advantage having knocked down 42 or more field goals in four straight and 15 of its last 17 games. The runway is cleared for takeoff for the Thunder here as they're rested having not played a back-to-back since March 3rd and 4th and with this being the finale of a four-game homestand. Note that Dallas is just 33-34 ATS in its last 67 games as a road underdog including a 10-14 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City is 32-18 ATS in its last 50 contests as a home favorite including an 18-9 ATS record this season. Take Oklahoma City (10*). | |||||||
03-14-24 | Bruins -215 v. Canadiens | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston over Montreal at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. Not a lot of analysis is needed for this potential parlay-booster on Thursday. The Bruins got boat-raced 5-1 at the hands of the Blues three nights ago, on home ice no less. They're well-positioned to bounce back on Thursday, however, as they head out on the road to face the rival Canadiens. Of course, this rivalry has fizzled in recent years with the Bruins taking 12 of the last 13 meetings. Montreal does enter this game off a 3-0 victory over the lowly Blue Jackets two nights ago. That's put the Habs in poor position here as they're just 1-4 in five games following a shutout victory over the last three seasons including an 0-1 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, Boston is 55-27 in its last 82 games following a loss including a 16-12 record in that spot this season. Better still, the B's are 26-11 in their last 37 games played on two days' rest including an 8-3 mark this season. Take Boston (8*). | |||||||
03-14-24 | TCU v. Houston -10 | 45-60 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston minus the points over TCU at 3 pm et on Thursday. TCU delivered a convincing win over Oklahoma to reach the second round of the Big 12 Tournament. I expected the Horned Frogs run to end there, however, as they draw top-seeded Houston on Thursday. While TCU does own a respectable 21-11 record this season it didn't exactly face the most difficult non-conference slate and only proved to be a middling squad in conference play. Of note, the Horned Frogs did upset the Cougars in their lone regular season matchup back in January. That loss marked Houston's second in a row but it only dropped one more game the rest of the way. The Cougars enter this rematch in excellent form off a 76-46 rout of Kansas last Saturday. That was a revenge game as well after Houston dropped a 13-point decision in Lawrence one month prior. Expect a similar knockout blow from the Cougars here as they successfully avenge that earlier loss to the Horned Frogs. Take Houston (8*). | |||||||
03-14-24 | Fresno State v. Utah State -11.5 | 75-87 | Win | 100 | 18 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah State minus the points over Fresno State at 3 pm et on Thursday. Utah State had to be happy about sitting idle on the opening day of the Mountain West Conference Tournament, giving it an extra day of rest following last Saturday's taxing two-point win over New Mexico that earned it top spot in the conference. The Aggies caught a bit of a break with Fresno State staging an upset win over Wyoming yesterday. That 'revenge' victory booked the Bulldogs this date with the conference's top-seed and I expect Fresno State's tournament run to be short-lived. Keep in mind, the Bulldogs don't do anything particularly well, ranking 225th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 235th in adjusted defensive efficiency this season (both according to KenPom). Utah State figures to overwhelm with its 38th ranked offense. The Aggies aren't likely to overlook the Bulldogs, however, not after Fresno State gave them all they could handle in a 77-73 decision in their most recent meeting. Take Utah State (8*). | |||||||
03-14-24 | Maryland v. Wisconsin -155 | 56-87 | Win | 100 | 7 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Wisconsin over Maryland at 2:30 pm et on Thursday. We won't mess with the points in a game that projects to be low-scoring on Thursday but I do expect Wisconsin to prevail. Maryland gutted out a low-scoring victory over Rutgers yesterday. The Terrapins have won just twice in their last seven contests with both of those coming against the Scarlet Knights. The Badgers didn't perform well offensively in their lone previous meeting with the Terps this season, connecting on just 21 field goals including 4-of-17 shooting from beyond the arc. Still, Wisconsin ranks 18th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency this season according to KenPom. In stark contrast, Maryland checks in 151st in the same category. The Terps will have a tough time beating the Badgers at their own game here when you consider both teams play at a similarly slow pace (303rd and 310th in adjusted tempo, respectively). Take Wisconsin (8*). | |||||||
03-14-24 | Xavier v. Connecticut UNDER 150 | 60-87 | Win | 100 | 5 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Xavier and Connecticut at 12 noon et on Thursday. Xavier was able to play at its preferred pace in yesterday's win over Butler, hoisting up a whopping 67 field goal attempts in the 76-72 victory. The Musketeers aren't likely to enjoy the same offensive success against top-seed Connecticut on Thursday. The Huskies rank 12th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season according to KenPom. Also note that UConn checks in 332nd in adjusted tempo. The last time these two teams met the Huskies rolled to a 99-56 victory on January 28th. You can be sure Xavier hasn't forgotten that beatdown and will likely be a little more interested in grinding this rematch out and effectively shortening proceedings, keeping in mind UConn also ranks third in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency. While you wouldn't know it by yesterday's performance, the Musketeers rank inside the top-50 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
03-13-24 | Avalanche v. Canucks -103 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -103 | 15 h 11 m | Show |
Pacific Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Vancouver over Colorado at 10:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Avalanche followed up a perfect three-game homestand with a 6-2 rout of the Flames in Calgary last night. I look for them to have a more difficult time as they continue west to face the Canucks in Vancouver on Wednesday. Note that Colorado has now won three straight meetings in this series including both previous matchups this season. The Avs haven't won four straight games against the Canucks since an eight-game win streak in the series way back in 2007-08. The Canucks enter this game off a mini-bye having not played since Saturday. They're riding a four-game winning streak and check in 21-9 on home ice this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.3 goals. They'll be without starting goaltender Thatcher Demko for an extended period which means it's up to Casey DeSmith to hold the fort. While he's not the long-term answer, I do think he's a capable back-up. The Avs, despite their recent success, are still just 15-19 on the road this season. Take Vancouver (10*). |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ricky Tran | $756 |
ProSportsPicks | $632 |
Joseph D'Amico | $510 |
Joey Tron | $450 |
Tom Macrina | $399 |
Nick Parsons | $344 |
Sean Murphy | $306 |
Jack Jones | $303 |
William Burns | $233 |
Dan Kaiser | $220 |