Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
04-16-21 | Golden Knights v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 20 m | Show |
NHL West Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Vegas and Anaheim at 10:05 pm et on Friday. We missed with the 'under' in Vegas' 6-2 win in Los Angeles two nights ago as the Kings long 'over' streak remained intact. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here, however, as the Golden Knights continue their California road trip in Anaheim on Friday night. The Ducks are coming off consecutive four-goal outbursts in victories over the Sharks in San Jose. That sets them up poorly here, however, noting that they've averaged just 1.8 goals per game when coming off consecutive wins over the last two seasons, with those games totaling an average of just 5.1 goals. Of course, that's pretty much par for the course for Anaheim here at home this season, where it averages just 1.9 goals per game. The Golden Knights average 3.1 goals per game on the road but check in averaging just 2.2 goals per game when playing their third game in five days over the last two seasons, as is the case here. That situation has produced an average total of just 4.7 goals with the 'under' cashing at a 14-5 clip. We've also seen the 'under' go 18-9 with the Knights playing on the road following a game where seven or more total goals were scored over the last two seasons. Meanwhile, the Ducks have posted an 0-6 o/u mark when at home revenging a one-goal loss against an opponent this season, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of just 4.0 goals. I'll also point out that three of the last five meetings here in Anaheim stayed 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-16-21 | Knicks v. Mavs UNDER 211 | Top | 117-109 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
NBA on ESPN Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Dallas at 9:30 pm et on Friday. When these two teams met in Manhattan earlier this month they combined to score just 185 points in a double-digit Mavericks victory. I'm not anticipating a whole lot more offense in this one but we've only seen a minor adjustment to the total with the previous matchup seeing a closing total of 212.5. The Knicks actually check in off consecutive 'over' results. Here, we find the 'under' has gone 10-1 when they come off consecutive games in which they scored 110 points or more over the last two seasons, with those games averaging just 210.1 total points. We've also seen the 'under' go 18-6 with the Knicks coming off an outright underdog victory (New York won as a 2.5-point underdog in New Orleans last time out) over the last two seasons with that situation producing just 207.3 total points on average. Note that the Knicks are allowing just 102.3 points per game when playing with same-season revenge this season, as is the case here as noted above. For their part, the Mavs have posted a 10-15 o/u record at home this season where they've inexplicably scored fewer points per game compared to on the road. While Luka Doncic's last-second heroics were the story, the Mavs got back in Wednesday's game against the Grizzlies thanks to some tough defensive play, limiting Memphis to 47.2% shooting. Only two of Dallas' last 16 opponents have shot better than 50% from the field and the Knicks don't figure to approach that number as they average just 103.7 points per game on 44.6% shooting on the road this season, with the 'under' cashing at an 18-11 clip. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-16-21 | Pirates v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Friday. J.T. Brubaker and Adrian Houser certainly aren't household names but I do expect them to do their part to keep this one 'under' the total on Friday night in Milwaukee. Brubaker has already been tagged for four home runs in just 15 innings of work this season after allowing only six long balls in 47 1/3 innings a year ago. I would certainly expect to see some positive regression to the mean in that department moving forward, noting that Brubaker is generally a ground ball pitcher with a better than MLB average ground ball percentage over his short career (47.5% compared to 42.8%). Brubaker has recorded an impressive 32.7% hard-hit ball percentage during his brief career and is trending right around that number in two starts this season (32.0%). Also note opposing hitters' exit velocity of just 86.6 mph - again better than the MLB average in that category. Adrian Houser has kept the ball in the park through two starts, allowing just one home run in 10 innings but he's had issues with his command, handing out six walks. After recording 8.0% and 8.5% walk percentages over the last two seasons, respectively, I do expect him to settle down. Like Brubaker, Houser does an excellent job of inducing ground balls with a career 55.7% ground ball percentage which balloons to an impressive 71.4% this season. Neither team has been tearing the cover off the baseball in the early going this season and with the Pirates coming off a high-scoring affair yesterday against San Diego, I believe we're being afforded a very generous total in this one. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-16-21 | Clippers v. 76ers -2.5 | Top | 103-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Los Angeles at 7:10 pm et on Friday. Some will be expecting a letdown from the 76ers here as they come off Wednesday's wire-to-wire win over the Nets but I don't see it happening. Perhaps that game wasn't quite as big as it could have been as Brooklyn didn't have the services of two-thirds of its 'big three', Kevin Durant and James Harden. Here, the Sixers host another elite opponent but do so knowing they've taken each of the last two meetings in this series in Philadelphia, but also with revenge on their minds following a 10-point loss against the Clippers in Los Angeles back on March 27th. The Clippers have already locked up a winning three-game road trip thanks to victories in Indiana and Detroit. Now they're in a tough spot, playing their fourth game in the last six nights, in four different cities, with another three-in-four spot up next beginning Sunday at home against Minnesota. It's still unknown whether the Clips will have Kawhi Leonard back in the lineup for Friday night's game. I would lean toward him playing but still like the 76ers in that situation. Note that Philadelphia is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 games as a home favorite of six points or less, outscoring the opposition by 12.3 points on average in that spot. The 76ers are also 21-9 ATS when playing at home following an ATS loss, as is the case here after Wednesday's win but non-cover against the undermanned Nets, outscoring opponents by 8.1 points per game in that situation. Take Philadelphia (10*). | |||||||
04-16-21 | Clippers v. 76ers OVER 221 | 103-106 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The first meeting between these two teams produced 234 points back on March 27th in Los Angeles and I believe the total will prove too low again on Friday night. The 76ers had their five-game 'under' streak snapped in Wednesday's 123-117 win over the undermanned Nets. After a stretch of six consecutive games holding the opposition to 49.4% or worse shooting, the Sixers have now allowed two of their last three opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field. Note that they've allowed 110.7 points per game at home this season, with those contests totaling an average of 228.5 points. The Clippers are coming off an ugly 100-98 win in Detroit two nights ago - a clear sandwich spot between a stop in Indiana to open the three-game trip and this contest tonight. Prior to that game, the Clips had seen the 'over' cash in three straight contests. While the Clips may not have the services of Kawhi Leonard again tonight, that has certainly been factored into this total. Note that Los Angeles averages 118.5 points per game when coming off an ATS loss over the last two seasons, with those games totaling an average of 226.3 points. After shooting an abysmal 39.8% against a bad Pistons squad two nights ago, we can anticipate a strong bounce-back performance from the Clips offense here, noting that the 'over' has cashed in three of the last five meetings in this series. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
04-16-21 | Giants v. Marlins UNDER 8.5 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Miami at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The Giants took a chance on former Reds starter Anthony DeSclafani this season, paying him $6M to slide into their rotation. Through his first two starts with his new club, he hasn't disappointed, allowing just one earned run over 11 innings of work. The fact is, DeSclafani had one bad season with the Reds, that coming last year. While we're talking about a small sample size, his strikeouts per nine innings are up while his walks per nine innings are down considerably compared to last season. Note that for his career, DeSclafani has posted a 6.7% walk percentage, 1.5% lower than the MLB average. Through two outings this season he has recorded a 59.4% ground ball percentage which is certainly encouraging after he was sub-40% in that category a year ago. Daniel Castano will make his first start of the season for the Marlins. He struggled with his command during a brief stint with the big club last year, issuing 11 walks compared to just 12 strikeouts in 29 2/3 innings. We did see considerable improvement during Spring Training, however, as Castano posted a 14:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 15 innings of work. While that certainly doesn't always equate to success during the regular season, I'm willing to take a flyer on him as he faces a Giants club that has hit just .196 against left-handed starting pitching so far this season. Note that the 'under' is a perfect 7-0 with the Giants coming off a win this season, with those games totaling an average of just 4.1 runs. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-15-21 | Tigers v. A's -153 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
MLB American League Game of the Month. My selection is on Oakland over Detroit at 9:40 pm et on Thursday. This spot sets up nicely for the A's as they return home following an encouraging 4-1 road trip to host a Tigers club that is in for a letdown off a surprising series sweep in Houston. Detroit certainly got behind manager A.J. Hinch in his return to Houston, delivering three straight wins by a combined 20-8 margin. I still don't think the Tigers are actually as good as their 6-6 record would indicate, though, and expect them to fall short in Thursday's series-opener in Oakland. Tarik Skubal will take the ball for the Tigers. He has labored through his first two starts this season, failing to make it through the sixth inning in either of them. After recording a 40.5% fly ball percentage in 32 big league innings last year he's right on course again through two starts in 2021, posting a 41.4% fly ball percentage. While we are talking about a fairly small sample size, he has now posted a 6.9% home run percentage during his big league career, more than twice the MLB average in that category. After a shaky season debut, Sean Manaea settled in and delivered a clutch performance in Houston last week, allowing just one earned run over six innings in a 6-2 A's victory. While he's certainly had some ups and downs, the A's have never given up on Manaea since he broke into the bigs in 2016 and I do feel he can be a solid contributor near the top of their rotation this year. Note that Manaea has been better than the MLB average in terms of hard-hit ball percentage, ground ball percentage and fly ball percentage in the early going this season. Opponents are hitting .286 against him through two starts but I would certainly expect some positive regression to the mean in that department as Manaea has limited opposing hitters to a .248 batting average over the course of his career. Take Oakland (10*). | |||||||
04-15-21 | Warriors v. Cavs UNDER 224.5 | Top | 119-101 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Cleveland at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. We missed the mark (badly) with the 'under' in the Warriors rout of the undermanned Thunder last night but I'm willing to go back to the well with the same play here, as I don't expect another peak offensive effort from Golden State in this, the second installment of a five-game road trip. Note that while it has been overshadowed by its recent offensive outbursts, the Warriors are playing some excellent defensive basketball right now, having held their last four opponents to 110 points or less and 48.3% or worse shooting (that qualifies as solid defensive basketball in today's NBA). The 'under' is a perfect 7-0 with the Warriors playing the second of back-to-back nights this season with that situation producing just 211.1 total points on average. The 'under' is also 9-1 after the Warriors win three of their last four games ATS this season with that situation producing 215 total points on average. The Cavs have scored less than 110 points in back-to-back games and have plenty of what I would call 'possession killers' in their lineup right now. They've shot 48.7% or worse from the field in three straight games and are one of the slowest-paced teams in the league this season. With this being the Warriors third game in the last four nights (in three different cities), I'm not anticipating a track meet. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-15-21 | Bucks v. Hawks +4.5 | 120-109 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. There are injury concerns on both sides leading into this game with the status of Giannis and Trae at the top of every bettor's mind. Based on early line movement there's a good chance we'll see Giannis sit once again while Trae will likely give it a go, but I do like the Hawks regardless of the injury situation in this spot. Milwaukee is coming off back-to-back SU and ATS wins to open its current road trip but it's worth noting it hasn't put together a three-game ATS winning streak since way back in February. The Bucks are playing a wide-open style right now and while it has flustered their last two opponents (two overmatched teams in the Magic and Timberwolves) I believe the Hawks will do just fine. After holding their last two opponents to 37.2% or worse shooting we can certainly anticipate some regression from Milwaukee defensively here. Meanwhile, the Hawks are riding high off three straight wins (both SU and ATS) but still have plenty of room for improvement after shooting 45.2% and 47.6% from the field in their last two contests - both coming on the road against the Hornets and Raptors. Note that Milwaukee checks in 11-20 ATS the L31 times it has come off consecutive games scoring at least 110 points. The Bucks are also just 9-19 ATS the L28 times they've been in a three games in five days situation on the road, outscoring opponents by just 1.1 points per game in that spot. Take Atlanta (10*). | |||||||
04-15-21 | Bucks v. Hawks OVER 230 | 120-109 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Atlanta at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. This play obviously goes hand-in-hand with my play on the Hawks plus the points against the Bucks on Thursday night. Milwaukee has settled into a true up-tempo style in the absence of Giannis and that should suit the Hawks just fine on Thursday night as they won't shy away from a track meet. Note that the 'over' has gone 13-4 the last 17 times the Bucks have played on the road following consecutive ATS victories over the last two seasons with that situation producing an average total of 236.6 points. Meanwhile, the Hawks have seen the 'over' cash at a 43-26 clip in their last 69 games as a home underdog with those contests totaling an average of 233.7 points. While Atlanta has major injury concerns, most notably involving superstar Trae Young, I would expect him to be back in the lineup on Friday with two full days off on deck before the Hawks play again on Sunday against Indiana. Even if he doesn't play, the pace alone should afford Atlanta a good opportunity to hang a crooked number on the scoreboard, noting that it averages 116.2 points per game when playing at home seeking revenge for a double-digit loss over the last two seasons (Milwaukee took the first meeting between these two teams by a 129-115 score back on January 24th). Finally, note that the 'over' has cashed in three of the last four matchups between these two teams in Atlanta. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
04-15-21 | Blackhawks v. Red Wings UNDER 5.5 | 1-4 | Win | 102 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Detroit at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. The Blackhawks are coming off consecutive 4-3 wins in Columbus while the Red Wings check in off back-to-back surprising victories in Carolina. Here, I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair, noting that the Blackhawks average just 2.4 goals per game on the road this season while Detroit has managed only 2.3 goals per game here at Little Caesar's Arena. It's also worth noting that three of the last four meetings in this series in Detroit have stayed 'under' the total. The Red Wings check in sporting a 2-12 o/u mark when coming off a win this season, with those games averaging a total of just 4.8 goals. The 'under' is also a perfect 6-0 with the Red Wings playing on home ice off a win by two goals or more with that situation producing 4.6 total goals on average. Finally, the 'under' is 8-1 with the Wings revenging a road loss by three goals or more against an opponent this season, as is the case here, with that spot averaging a total of 4.7 goals. For Chicago's part, it has posted a 2-9 o/u record when playing on the road off a one-goal win away from home over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an average of 4.6 total goals. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-15-21 | Predators v. Hurricanes UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 102 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
NHL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Nashville and Carolina at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. With the Hurricanes coming off stunning back-to-back losses against the lowly Red Wings I expect to see them tighten things up against the surging Predators on Thursday, noting that Carolina has allowed just 2.2 goals per game on home ice this season. Nashville checks in with the 'under' having gone 8-1 when playing on the road off a home win by two goals or more over the last two seasons with those games averaging just 3.6 total goals. For its part, Carolina has posted a 1-10 o/u record when playing at home after losing two of its last three games over the last two seasons, allowing just 1.9 goals per game in that situation with an average total of just 4.4 goals. Also note that the 'under' has cashed in two of the last three meetings between these two teams in Carolina. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-15-21 | Devils +1.5 v. Rangers | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -125 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
NHL East Division Puck-Line Game of the Year. My selection is on New Jersey +1.5 goals over New York at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Rangers have posted some big wins lately that give off the impression that they're playing better than they actually are. The fact is, New York hasn't won consecutive games since March 30th and April 1st. New Jersey has somewhat surprisingly been a much better team on the road than at home this season, posting a 10-8 record in enemy territory while averaging 3.1 goals per game. Here, the Devils are set up well having gone a perfect 4-0 when playing on the road off three straight home losses, outscoring opponents by a whopping 2.8 goals per game in that situation (yes, I know, small sample size). We've also seen the Devils go 7-2 when playing on the road after being held to two goals or less in their last two games over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.4 goals per game in that spot. Meanwhile, the Rangers are a woeful 2-9 when coming off a win by three goals or more this season, outscored by 1.0 goal per game in that spot. They're 0-8 the last eight times they've come off a shutout victory, as is the case here, allowing 3.9 goals per game while being outscored by an average margin of two goals in that spot. The Devils have certainly held their own in this series at MSG in recent years, splitting the last six meetings, including taking both matchups in Manhattan this season. Take New Jersey +1.5 goals (10*). | |||||||
04-15-21 | Indians v. White Sox UNDER 8 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Chicago at 2:10 pm et on Thursday. We've seen seen superb pitching in this series so far with Shane Bieber and Lucas Giolito dueling two nights ago before Carlos Rodon threw his no-hitter last night. We have another fine pitching matchup here on Thursday as Aaron Civale goes for the Indians against veteran Lance Lynn for the White Sox. Civale has quietly put together two outstanding starts to open the season, allowing just five hits and four earned runs over 14 2/3 innings of work. He's always been a solid ground ball pitcher and that has held true this season. The fact that he has limited opposing hitters to a paltry 83.8 mpg exit velocity and a 12.1% line drive percentage is certainly encouraging. Meanwhile, Lance Lynn seems to have discovered the fountain of youth as he only seems to get better with age. While we're still dealing with a very small sample size, his strikeouts are up while his walks are down. Lynn has limited opponents to a 34.3% hard-hit ball percentage and has yet to allow a home run in 13 2/3 innings of work. Note that the 'under' is 15-4 in Lynn's last 19 starts on five or more days' rest, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-15-21 | Red Sox v. Twins OVER 8.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -118 | 5 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Minnesota at 1:10 pm et on Thursday. We've seen nothing but low-scoring games between these two teams so far this week, although yesterday's double-bill was obviously of the seven-inning variety. Here, I'm expecting plenty of offense as the Red Sox send Garrett Richards to the hill against Michael Pineda of the Twins. Richards has been cut loose by two teams over the last three years so perhaps it's no surprise that he's struggled with the Red Sox as well. Through two starts he has allowed a .323 opponents batting average, a 48.0% hard-hit ball percentage (not to mention a 92.4 mpg exit velocity off the bat) and 32% fly ball percentage. He's been above the MLB average in terms of home run percentage in each of the last three seasons and so far this season he's been tagged for two long balls in just seven innings of work. While the Twins are slumping at the plate right now, Richards might be just what they need to get back on track. Pineda owns a 1.64 ERA and 0.91 WHIP through two starts this season but I certainly don't expect him to continue to post those stellar numbers. He has actually been one of the most hittable starters in baseball since a terrific two-year stretch at the start of his career. So far this season he has recorded an ugly 51.6% hard-hit ball percentage and now runs into a hot Red Sox lineup that has contributed to a nine-game winning streak. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
04-14-21 | Golden Knights v. Kings UNDER 5.5 | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Vegas and Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in the front half of this two-game set on Monday night but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here on Wednesday. The Golden Knights have been a stout defensive team away from home this season, allowing just 2.3 goals per game with their road contests totaling an average of only 5.2 goals. Also note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 6-0 with the Knights coming off a road win by two goals or more this season, as is the case here following Monday's 4-2 victory. That situation has produced only 3.1 total goals on average. For their part, the Kings have seen the 'under' go 29-17 when playing on home ice after losing two of their last three games overall, as is the case here. They've averaged just 2.3 goals per game in that spot and have generally been subpar offensively here at home all season, averaging 2.8 goals per game. On the flip side, we have seen the Kings tighten things up defensively in similar situations, allowing only 2.4 goals per game when revenging a loss where their opponent scored four goals or more this season. It's worth noting that we saw the Knights skate to a 4-2 victory here in Los Angeles back on March 19th before the Kings answered with a low-scoring 3-1 win two nights later. While five of seven meetings this season have gone 'over' the total this season that only serves to give us value with the 'under' here as we're currently being offered a plus-money return (at the time of writing). Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-14-21 | Mavs -2 v. Grizzlies | Top | 114-113 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
NBA Southwest Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Memphis at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Mavs are coming off consecutive home losses against the Spurs and 76ers with the latter coming in embarrassing form in a lifeless effort two nights ago (in front of a national audience on ESPN, no less). It shouldn't be difficult for the Mavs to get back up for this one-game road trip to Memphis on Wednesday and they're set up well to get back in the win column. Note that Dallas is 18-6 ATS in its last 24 games as a road favorite of six points or less, outscoring the opposition by 9.2 points per game in that situation. The Mavs are also a solid 39-25 ATS when coming off an ATS loss over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 5.3 points per game in that spot. The Grizzlies check in averaging just 106.2 points per game when playing at home after winning five or six of their last seven games ATS this season and should have hard time keeping up with the a Mavs squad that has inexplicably been better both offensively and defensively on the road compared to at home this season. Note that Dallas averages 118 points per game when playing on the road off consecutive ATS losses, as is the case here, over the last three seasons. Dallas took the first meeting in this series this season by 10 points back on February 22nd and has won two of its last three trips to Memphis, both SU and ATS. Take Dallas (10*). | |||||||
04-14-21 | Warriors v. Thunder UNDER 223.5 | 147-109 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Oklahoma City at 9:10 pm et on Wednesday. We've won with the 'under' in each of the Thunder's last two games having anticipated they would play with some pride defensively following a truly awful stretch of basketball at that end of the floor. While that didn't exactly hold true in Saturday's blowout loss against the 76ers, we did see Oklahoma City holds its own in a tough matchup in Utah last night, holding the Jazz to 41.9% shooting in a 10-point loss. The Thunder are having a tough time offensively right now, having been held under 45% shooting in six of their last seven games overall. Lugenz Dort found a cheat code and went off for 42 points in last night's game in Utah but isn't likely to repeat that performance here. Note that the Thunder average just 106.3 points per game on 45.5% shooting at home this season. The Warriors roll into OKC off back-to-back wins. Note that they average just 104.1 points per game after winning two or more games in a row ATS this season with that situation producing just 217.8 total points on average. The 'under' checks in a perfect 9-0 with the Warriors having posted three ATS wins in their last four games this season with that spot producing an average total of only 210.4 points. Of course, the Warriors have been a lower-scoring team in general on the road this season, posting a 9-18 o/u mark. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-14-21 | Marlins v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | 6-5 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Wednesday. We missed badly with the 'under' in this matchup last night but I like the way it sets up again on Wednesday as the Braves try to put an end to their three-game slide. Nick Neidert will take the ball for Miami. After turning in a fine spring, he labored through 4 1/3 innings in his regular season debut, issuing five walks but giving up just one earned run on three hits. The Braves offense is obviously among the best in baseball when it's hot. While we did see Atlanta do some damage last night, scoring eight runs on 11 hits, that was in a game that got out of hand early on. Tonight, I look for Neidert to keep the Braves bats at bay long enough to help keep this one 'under' the total. Atlanta starter Charlie Morton is off to another fine start having posted a 3.27 ERA and 1.18 WHIP through two starts this season. It's easy to tell when Morton is on top of his game as he draws ground balls at a high rate. So far this season he has posted a 48.3% ground ball percentage and a ridiculously low 3.4% fly ball percentage. His 27.6% hard-hit ball percentage is terrific as well, along with his 87 mpg average exit velocity. Morton won't rack up a ton of strikeouts at this stage of his career but he also won't hand out many free passes of yield many easy at-bats. While the Marlins exploded for 14 runs last night they had plated just 13 runs in their previous six games combined. Remember, they scored 12 runs in a win over Tampa Bay back on April 3rd but managed just one run in their next game on that occasion. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-14-21 | Jets -174 v. Senators | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
NHL North Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Winnipeg over Ottawa at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the Senators on the puck-line in Monday's outright win over the Jets but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Jets in Wednesday's rematch. It was fairly obvious to me that the Jets might have already thought they had a win in the bag after jumping ahead 2-0 early in Monday's game. But as they've done time and time again this season, the Sens fought back, erasing that deficit in short order before eventually taking over the game in the third period. Here, I'm confident we'll see the Jets turn in a more complete effort as they aim to get back on track before a tougher matchup in Toronto on Thursday. Note that Winnipeg has gone 10-3 when coming off a loss by two goals or more against a division opponent over the last two seasons, averaging 4.0 goals per game in that situation and outscoring opponents by 1.5 goals per game. The Jets are also 8-1 revenging a loss where they allowed four goals or more this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.7 goals in that spot. Meanwhile, Ottawa checks in 0-11 the last 11 times it has come off a win by two goals or more over a division opponent, outscored by 1.8 goals per game on average in that situation. We've also seen the Sens average just 1.9 goals per game when playing at home after losing three of their last four games this season. While the Jets have dropped two of their last three games against the Senators, they're still 5-2 against them this season and have taken three of the last five meetings here in Ottawa. We're being asked to lay a fairly steep price with Winnipeg here, but it's warranted in my opinion. Take Winnipeg (10*). | |||||||
04-14-21 | Flames v. Canadiens UNDER 5.5 | 4-1 | Win | 102 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Calgary and Montreal at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'm willing to take a flyer on the fact that the Flames are on a legitimate uptick defensively right now, having allowed just two goals in their last two games after getting torched (no pun intended) for 17 goals in their previous four contests. Note that Calgary checks in averaging just 2.5 goals per game when coming off a road win over a division opponent over the last two seasons and averages a miserable 2.2 goals per game on the road this season. Meanwhile, the Canadiens have seen the 'under' cash in seven straight games when revenging a loss by two goals or more against an opponent, with that situation producing an average total of just 4.1 goals. For its part, Montreal averages just 2.1 goals per game when playing at home off a home win by two goals or more over the last two seasons. The last time these two teams met in Montreal the Flames skated to a 2-0 victory on January 30th. The 'under' has gone 3-0-1 in this series this season with the last three meetings totaling four goals or less. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-14-21 | Reds v. Giants OVER 8 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
MLB National League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and San Francisco at 3:45 pm et on Wednesday. We saw the Giants long eight-game 'under' streak come to an end in last night's 7-6 victory over the Reds. Now I look for them to post a second straight 'over' result as they wrap up their series with the Reds on Wednesday afternoon. Tyler Mahle will take the ball for Cincinnati. He got in very limited work during Cincinnati's exhibition schedule in March and didn't fare well. He's held his own through two regular season starts but there is still some reason for concern entering Wednesday's outing. Note that we're dealing with small sample sizes when talking about Mahle's opponents' batting average going back to the start of last season. In 2020, opponents hit just .198 off Mahle while they've hit a poor .129 against him through two starts here in 2021. However, he allowed three home runs in 5 2/3 innings of work during Spring Training and has already posted a 5.4% home run percentage this season. Note that he's been worse than the MLB average in that department over the course of his career (4.0%). Mahle has also posted an ugly 16.2% walk percentage this season - again, a category where he's worse than the MLB average over the course of his 4+ year MLB career. With the Giants showing signs of life at the dish last night I think we'll see some carry-over effect against Mahle today. Veteran Johnny Cueto will counter for San Francisco. He's generally been on the decline since a stellar 2016 campaign that saw him make the All-Star Game and finish sixth in N.L. Cy Young Award voting and 26th in N.L. MVP voting. While Cueto's ERA and WHIP are stellar through two starts, he has actually recorded a poor 50.0% hard-hit ball percentage and 33.3% line drive percentage, which in my opinion means he's been a bit lucky to this point. Note that Cueto has yet to give up a home run through two starts after having posted home run percentages of 3.3% or higher in each of the last four seasons (the MLB average is 2.8%). I certainly wouldn't expect his 25.9% strikeout percentage to continue having recorded a high of 20.2% over his last three seasons. Note that we've now seen seven of the last nine meetings in this series go 'over' the total following last night's 13-run outburst. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
04-14-21 | Coyotes v. Wild UNDER 5.5 | 2-5 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Minnesota at 2:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Coyotes were on quite a scoring tear prior to hitting a wall in their last two games, scoring just two goals combined in losses against the Golden Knights and Avalanche. This doesn't figure to be a great bounce-back spot as they wrap up a long nine-game road trip that will have taken them to five different cities. Note that the Coyotes have averaged a miserable 1.3 goals per game when playing their eighth game in the last 14 days over the last two seasons, with the 'under' cashing at an 8-1 clip in that situation and those games totaling just 4.0 goals on average. This doesn't figure to be an ideal breakout spot for the 'Yotes offense as they average just 2.6 goals per game on the road this season and face a Wild squad that allows only 2.1 goals per game on home ice. It's worth noting that Arizona has won just three of its last 30 games when revenging consecutive losses against an opponent by two goals or more, as is the case here, averaging just 1.9 goals per game in the process. It's been an interesting week for the Wild as they had Monday's game against St. Louis postponed due to unrest over a police shooting in the city and now play this rare midweek matinee affair. While Minnesota did score 12 goals in a two-game set against the Avalanche last week, that could be considered an outlier as the Wild have scored three goals or less in 12 of their last 14 games overall. This isn't an ideal spot for the Wild offensively as they've averaged just 2.0 goals per game when returning home off a one-goal road loss over the last three seasons. While the first two meetings in this series this season did find their way 'over' the total, the 'under' has now cashed in the last three and five of the last six matchups between these two teams in Minnesota. Take the under (9*). | |||||||
04-14-21 | Cubs v. Brewers -154 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 26 m | Show |
MLB Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on Milwaukee over Chicago at 1:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Cubs evened this series at a game apiece with last night's 3-2 win. I look for the Brewers to get it right back on Wednesday, however, as they send Corbin Burnes to the hill against Jake Arrieta. Burnes is part of Milwaukee's underrated 1-2 punch at the top of its rotation that also includes Brandon Woodruff, who was sharp again last night. Burnes was terrific in the spring and he's been effective through two regular season starts as well, allowing only two hits and one earned run while posting a ridiculous 20:0 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 12 1/3 innings of work. Note that opponents have now hit just .227 off of Burnes over his 3+ year big league career and he's been better than the MLB average in virtually all of the key advanced stat categories we look at, considerably so in some including strikeout percentage where he is 31.9% compared to the 22.8% MLB average. He has posted an incredible 26.3% hard-hit ball percentage and 57.9% ground ball percentage through two starts - again owning numbers considerably better than the MLB average in both categories during his career. Jake Arrieta gets the nod for the Cubs. Unlike that of Burnes, Arrieta's career is winding down and the numbers show it. While he does check in 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA through two starts this season there is reason for concern. He has yet to allow a home run this season but has recorded a 42.1% hard-hit ball percentage and an ugly 36.8% fly ball percentage. In other words, it's only a matter of time before Arrieta starts giving up the long ball. Note that he's been worse than the league average in each of the last four seasons in terms of home run percentage. That's not to mention the fact that Arrieta's strikeout percentage hasn't been higher than 19.1% in five years. The MLB average for that category is 20.7%. Finally, opponents have hit .283 and .298 against him over the last two seasons, respectively and are hitting .283 off of him again this year. Starting pitchers aren't everything when it comes to baseball handicapping, but in this case, I feel the Brewers have enough of an edge to warrant a play. Take Milwaukee (10*). | |||||||
04-13-21 | Celtics v. Blazers -1 | Top | 116-115 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Game of the Month. My selection is on Portland minus the points over Boston at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Blazers should be in a foul mood when they take the court on Tuesday night after suffering a disappointing 107-98 loss at home against the defensive-minded Heat on Sunday. While the Blazers have certainly been scuffing their heels lately, dropping three of their last four games overall, I'm confident we'll see them bounce back against the resurgent Celtics on Tuesday. Note that Portland has outscored the opposition by 5.3 points per game when playing at home off an ATS loss over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, the Celtics have averaged just 105.4 points per game and have been outscored by 2.4 points per contest when coming off a win by 15 points or more this season, as is the case here. Boston delivered that blowout win on Sunday, rallying against what appeared to be a very disinterested Nuggets squad (Denver scored just eight fourth quarter points in the loss). Portland couldn't have played much worse, particularly at the offensive end of the floor, against the Heat on Sunday. I don't think the Blazers will have any trouble getting up for this nationally-televised game at home before heading on the road for a two-game trip to San Antonio and Charlotte. Portland has lost a number of games against marquee opponents here at home lately and I think that's why this line is as short as it is. Thi sis a 'put up or shut up' game of sorts and I'm confident we'll see Damian Lillard take charge and lead the Blazers to a strong bounce-back performance. Take Portland (10*). | |||||||
04-13-21 | Heat v. Suns UNDER 217 | 86-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. This matchup pits two of the league's better defensive teams in my opinion and I believe we might be in for a bit of an old school, playoff-like game on Tuesday night. Keep in mind, the first time these two met this season was back on March 23rd, when the Suns cruised to a 110-100 win in Miami, staying 'under' the posted total. We're actually dealing with a higher total this time around, undoubtedly as a result of the Suns high-scoring ways of late. Phoenix has put up north of 120 points in five of its last seven games overall. Keep in mind, sprinkled in that stretch were two games where Phoenix was held to 102 and 103 points in regulation time against the Jazz and Clippers, respectively (we played the 'under' in both of those games and only failed to go 2-0 due to overtime against Utah). Phoenix has played a lot of basketball here in April with this being its seventh game in 13 nights. I'm not convinced we'll see another peak offensive performance like we saw last night against the lowly Rockets. Miami has allowed more than 110 points just once in its last eight games and checks in allowing just 105 points per game on 44.4% shooting on the road this season. While both meetings between these two teams in Phoenix have gone 'over' the total over the last three seasons, they haven't matched up here in quite some time. Note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 7-0 when the Heat play on the road off consecutive wins this season with those contests totaling just 193.7 points on average. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-13-21 | Thunder v. Jazz UNDER 223 | Top | 96-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
NBA Northwest Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma City and Utah at 9:10 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'under' in the Thunder's most recent game - a 117-93 home loss to the 76ers on Saturday. That 'under' result snapped a somewhat improbable three-game 'over' streak for Oklahoma City. I say improbable as the Thunder have been absolutely decimated by injuries and simply don't have the personnel in place to compete in track meets right now. I feel that this game sets up similarly to Utah's relatively low-scoring blowout win over the Cavaliers here in Salt Lake City back on March 29th. We won with the 'under' on that night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Utah should be in a foul mood tonight after letting one slip away against the Wizards last night. After scoring 42 first quarter points the Jazz might have got caught already checking the game off in the win column as the Wizards rallied and ultimately snapped Utah's long home winning streak. Of course, the Jazz are more than capable of bouncing right back tonight, and I expect it to come on the strength of a strong defensive effort after allowing the Wiz to shoot better than 52% from the field last night. Note that Utah allows just 104 points per game on 43.4% shooting at home this season. The Thunder, meanwhile, have been ripped for 129 points or more in four of their last six games overall but as I noted on Saturday, we should see them at least play with some pride moving forward. They shot 50% from the field in Saturday's loss - the first time they reached that mark since way back on March 14th. I wouldn't count on a repeat performance here. Note that the 'under' has gone 42-22 in Oklahoma City's last 64 games as a road underdog with those contests totaling an average of just 216.8 points. The Thunder have actually been a better defensive team on the road than at home this season, allowing 110.9 points per game on 46.3% shooting. Note that the Jazz have allowed just 103.8 points per game this season when playing their third consecutive game at home. Finally, the 'under' has cashed in each of the last four meetings between these two teams in Utah. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-13-21 | Panthers -112 v. Stars | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
NHL Central Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Florida over Dallas at 8:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Panthers have suddenly lost three games in a row after taking over the league lead in points with a win back on April 4th. I do look for them to bounce back in the back half of this two-game set in Dallas, however. Note that while the Panthers have been idle in Dallas since suffering a 4-1 loss here on Saturday, the Stars went out on the road and lost in overtime at Nashville on Sunday. If the Panthers are going to be sitting around Dallas for four days they might as well get a win out of it. I like their chances here. Note that Florida has gone 29-15 after giving up four goals or more in its last game over the last two seasons, averaging an impressive 3.5 goals per game and outscoring opponents by 0.6 goals on average in that spot. They also average 4.4 goals per game after being held to one goal or less in their last game over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.8 goals in that situation. The Stars got off to an incredibly fast start in Saturday's eventual 4-1 win over the Panthers, scoring twice in the game's first two minutes and grabbing a 3-0 first period lead to essentially force Florida away from its gameplan. Here, I look for the Panthers to get the early jump, noting that the Stars have suffered a bit of a hangover effect, averaging a miserable 1.6 goals per game when returning home off a division loss on the road over the last two seasons. The Panthers are giving up just 2.4 goals per game when coming off a loss this season and check in 12-9 on the road. It's been feast or famine for the Stars at home, as they've outscored opponents by 0.6 goals per game but own a disappointing 8-12 record here in Big D. Take Florida (10*). | |||||||
04-13-21 | Angels v. Royals UNDER 9 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Angels plated 10 runs in last night's rout of the Royals, marking the fifth time in their last seven games they've put up seven or more runs. It's worth noting that they average just 4.5 runs per game in their last 18 contests when priced as a short favorite of -150 or less. Dylan Bundy will take the ball for the Angels. He was in desperate need of a change of scenery after a tough stretch with the Orioles from 2018-2019 in which he went 15-30 with an ERA hovering around five. He bounced back with the Angels in 2020, finishing ninth in A.L. Cy Young Award voting while posting a 3.29 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. Bundy will already be making his third start here in 2021 and he's held his own so far, limiting opposing hitters to a .217 batting average while recording impressive 13.3% line drive and 46.7% ground ball percentages. Danny Duffy will counter for the Royals. Kansas City has never given up on Duffy despite the fact that he's been a very average starter for them since breaking into the bigs back in 2011. They're paying him $15.5 million this season and he's off to a fine start having tossed six shutout innings to earn a victory in his 2021 debut last week. In seven career starts against the Angels, Duffy has posted a respectable 3.95 ERA and 1.37 WHIP with the 'under' going 4-2-1. While the Halos have been piling up plenty of runs this season they've yet to post three consecutive 'over' results. The last time they came off back-to-back 'overs' they were involved in a game that totaled just six runs against the Astros, with Dylan Bundy on the mound for that one as well. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-13-21 | Cubs v. Brewers UNDER 7.5 | 3-2 | Win | 102 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. This is a rematch of last week's stellar pitcher's duel between Kyle Hendricks and Brandon Woodruff at Wrigley Field (we won with the 'under' in that game). Neither pitcher gets enough credit. Hendricks has kept opposing hitters off balance throughout his career, finishing top-10 in N.L. Cy Young Award voting on two different occasions (including ninth last year), not to mention seventh in N.L. Rookie of the Year voting back in 2014. He owns a career hard-hit ball percentage a full five percentage points lower than the MLB average and has recorded a stunning 19.2% in that department through two starts this year. We already know Hendricks is a ground ball pitcher and so far this season he's posted a miniscule 7.7% fly ball rate. Of course, we'll see some regression to the mean but he's been better than the MLB average in virtually all of the key advanced stat categories throughout his career. Brandon Woodruff is a star in the making at the top of the Brewers rotation. He's been dominant through two starts this season, picking up right where he left off last year. Like Hendricks, Woodruff is above average in virtually all of the key advanced stat categories. He's held opposing hitters to a collective .230 batting average over the course of his 4+ year big league career. The 'under' has gone 5-2 in his seven career starts against the Cubs as he's recorded a 3.75 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. The Brewers offense has been imposing lately, resulting in three consecutive 'overs' entering this game. I expect a different story to unfold tonight. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-13-21 | Marlins v. Braves UNDER 8 | Top | 14-8 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
MLB N.L. East Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Tuesday. The Marlins rallied for a 5-3 extra innings victory to open this series in Atlanta last night, compounding the Braves sluggish start to the season. While we saw signs of life over the weekend, the Braves still aren't hitting with much consistency and I believe that helps set us up well with the 'under' on Tuesday night. Pablo Lopez will take the ball for the Marlins. He has been quietly consistent over the course of his 3+ year big league career, getting marginally better with each passing season. Lopez improved in both strikeouts per nine innings and home runs allowed per nine innings last season, recording a solid 3.61 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Through two starts this season, covering a span of 11 2/3 innings, he's been better than the MLB average in most key advanced stat categories. Opposing hitters are batting just .132 against him. Of course, we can anticipate some regression moving forward but we don't need him to be perfect to help keep this one 'under' the total on Tuesday. That's largely due to the fact that I'm anticipating a strong performance from Braves starter Max Fried. Like the rest of his team, Fried is off to a tough start this season, recording a 9.00 ERA and 2.43 WHIP through two starts, spanning just seven innings of work. Keep in mind, Fried finished fifth in N.L. Cy Young Award voting and 18th in N.L. MVP voting last season and had a terrific spring, posting a 1.38 ERA 0.77 WHIP in 13 innings pitched. We can certainly anticipate him turning things around sooner rather than later. Note that the Marlins have scored three runs or less in eight of nine games this season (excluding extra innings). Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-12-21 | Golden Knights v. Kings UNDER 5.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Vegas and Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Monday. The Kings are inexplicably coming off four consecutive 'over' results but I look for a different story to unfold as they return home to host the Golden Knights on Monday. We won with the 'under' in Vegas' 1-0 victory over Arizona yesterday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Note that Vegas has averaged just 1.8 goals per game when coming off a shutout victory over the last two seasons. The Knights haven't been nearly as potent offensively on the road compared to at home this season, averaging 2.9 goals per game in the visitors role with the 'under' cashing at a 10-7-1 clip. Meanwhile, the Kings have seen the 'under' go 19-5 when playing at home off a win by two goals or more over the last two seasons with those games totaling just 4.4 goals on average. The 'under' is also 31-16 when Los Angeles comes off a game in which it scored four goals or more, as is the case here, with those contests totaling 5.0 goals on average. The last time the Golden Knights were in revenge mode in this series they posted a 4-1 victory back on March 29th, with that game cruising 'under' the total. They're in a similar position here after dropping a 4-2 decision against the Kings on March 31st. Look for another relatively low-scoring affair. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-12-21 | A's -125 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Game of the Month. My selection is on Oakland over Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Monday. I love the way this one sets up for the A's, who got off to a slow start this season but are enjoying some good vibes after securing their first series victory with two consecutive wins in Houston over the weekend. The D'Backs are also coming off an impressive series win over the Reds thanks to a perfect weekend. I simply feel that Oakland has considerably more upside and I like the way the pitching matchup sets up on Monday. Chris Bassitt will take the ball for the A's. He hasn't gotten off to the start he had hoped for this season, going winless with an ERA north of five through his first two outings. However, this is a guy that finished eighth in A.L. Cy Young Award voting last season and is certainly capable of bouncing back against the D'Backs on Monday. Note that Bassitt has allowed two home runs in just 11 1/3 innings of work this season but has proven capable of keeping the ball in the park during his MLB career. He gave up just 0.9 home runs per nine innings last season. There are a number of areas where we can anticipate some positive regression to the mean when it comes to Bassitt this season, and speaking of regression, I do feel some of that is in order when it comes to the D'Backs offense, which just scored 20 runs in a three-game series against the Reds. Madison Bumgarner will get the nod for Arizona. He continues to wind down what has been a tremendous career, but not on a positive note. Through two starts this season he has recorded an ugly 54.8% hard-hit ball percentage and a staggering 43.8% line drive percentage - nearly double the MLB average in the latter category. Note that the A's have gone 46-18 in their last 64 games against left-handed starting pitching, outscoring the opposition by 1.8 runs per game in the process. Take Oakland (10*). | |||||||
04-12-21 | Bulls v. Grizzlies UNDER 230.5 | Top | 90-101 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Memphis at 9:10 pm et on Monday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in the Grizzlies track meet loss against the Pacers last night but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Memphis was baited into a frenetic pace against Indiana last night and simply couldn't keep up in an eventual 132-125 loss. I expect a different type of game to unfold on Monday as both the Bulls and Grizzlies check in off losses, and in back-to-back spots. Note that the 'under' has gone 8-1 when the Grizzlies play at home after losing two of their last three games this season with those contests totaling just 213.1 points on average. We've also seen the 'under' go 26-10 the last 36 times Memphis has given up 120 points or more in a game, as is the case here, with those games producing an average total of 220.8 points. For the Bulls, this will be their 10th game in the last 17 nights, in 10 different cities! They still managed to shoot better than 51% from the field in last night's loss in Minnesota but I expect them to have a tough time matching that mark tonight. The Grizzlies have held opponents to 46.6% shooting at home this season and 46.9% or worse shooting in six of their last eight games overall. Off last night's poor defensive effort against the Pacers, I expect them to make a bit of a statement here. For the Bulls, they'll simply be looking to keep within arm's reach as they attempt to steal one at the end of a long road trip. Note that each of the last two meetings in this series in Memphis have stayed 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-12-21 | Angels v. Royals UNDER 9 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
American League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The Angels are still licking their wounds following Saturday's 15-1 beatdown at the hands of the Blue Jays (we lost with the 'under' in that game). I expect a much lower-scoring affair on Monday as they head to Kansas City to face the Royals. Dylan Bundy will take the ball for the Angels. He was in desperate need of a change of scenery after a tough stretch with the Orioles from 2018-2019 in which he went 15-30 with an ERA hovering around five. He bounced back with the Angels in 2020, finishing ninth in A.L. Cy Young Award voting while posting a 3.29 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. Bundy will already be making his third start here in 2021 and he's held his own so far, limiting opposing hitters to a .217 batting average while recording impressive 13.3% line drive and 46.7% ground ball percentages. Here, Bundy will face a Royals club that is coming off an extra innings victory over the White Sox yesterday but has been held to four runs or less in five straight games since exploding out of the gates against a bad Rangers pitching staff to open the season. Brady Singer will counter for Kansas City. He finished eighth in A.L. Rookie of the Year voting during a Covid-shortened 2020 season. He was roughed up in his 2021 debut against the Rangers but I'm confident we'll see him bounce back here. Note that Singer posted excellent numbers across the board during his rookie campaign. While he was chased early from his first start this season he still managed to record impressive 10% line drive and fly ball percentages, not to mention a 70% ground ball percentage after excelling in those three categories last year as well. While the Angels do possess a potent lineup, I do feel they're in for some regression at the dish and we saw signs of that as they struggled to get to Blue Jays starter Steven Matz on Saturday. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-12-21 | Nationals v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
National League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and St. Louis at 7:45 pm et on Monday. The Nationals have seen the 'under' cash in three of their last four games overall which is perhaps not all that surprising considering they're coming off a series against the pitching-strong Dodgers over the weekend. There is reason for optimism that we'll see the Nats' lineup break out sooner rather than later though. Victor Robles enters this series riding a three-game hitting streak. Trea Turner was 4-for-8 at the dish over the last two games. Juan Soto is Juan Soto and was 4-for-8 including two home runs in the first two games against the Dodgers prior to yesterday's 0-for-4 day. Ryan Zimmerman was also 4-for-8 in the first two against L.A. before running into Clayton Kershaw yesterday. You get the picture. There is concern for the Nats' here though as starter Erick Fedde has yet to really figure things out at the big league level. Since breaking into the majors back in 2017, opposing hitters have batted a collective .283 against him. That's not to mention his career 43.6% hard-hit ball percentage - well north of the MLB average. In his 2021 debut last week opposing hitters posted a 91.9 mph exit velocity, certainly a concern as he prepares to face a dangerous Cardinals lineup that will be in a foul mood off consecutive losses against the Brewers over the weekend. John Gant will counter for St. Louis. He has got in limited work over the last couple of seasons. He was good but not great in his season debut against a light-hitting Marlins club. Note that Gant has posted worse than MLB average hard-hit ball and line drive percentages over the course of his career. He's always had issues with his command, with a career 11.6% walk percentage and while the Nats' have been struggling at bit at the plate, they're more than capable of punishing Gant for his mistakes tonight. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
04-12-21 | Jets v. Senators +1.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
NHL Puck-Line Game of the Year. My selection is on Ottawa +1.5 goals over Winnipeg at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The Jets are rolling right now, winners of three games in a row including a two-game sweep in Montreal which culminated with a 5-0 victory on Saturday night. While Winnipeg has owned this series, taking five of six meetings so far this season, the Senators have been right here with the Jets in the last two matchups, winning 2-1 here in Ottawa on February 13th before dropping a 4-3 decision in Winnipeg on April 5th. The Jets are set up poorly here, noting that they've gone just 17-26 after allowing one goal or less in their last game over the last three seasons, outscored by 0.3 goals per game in that situation. They've also posted an ugly 3-12 record and average just 2.1 goals per game after scoring three goals or more in three straight games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 1.2 goals in that spot. Meanwhile, the Sens have somewhat surprisingly gone 5-1 after allowing six goals or more over the last two seasons, averaging 3.8 goals per game and outscoring opponents by 1.1 goals on average in that situation which presents itself here after Saturday's wild 6-5 loss in Toronto (we won with the 'over' in that game). Also note that the Sens give up just 2.3 goals per game playing at home after losing five or six of their last seven games this season. Expect a tightly-contested affair on Monday night in Ottawa. Take Ottawa +1.5 goals (10*). | |||||||
04-11-21 | Pacers v. Grizzlies UNDER 233 | Top | 132-125 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Sunday. Indiana took the first meeting between these two teams in a wild 134-116 affair back on February 2nd. I'm expecting this rematch to be much lower-scoring than that, however, noting that the Grizzlies have allowed just 108 points per game when at home revenging a same-season loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, with those contests totaling an average of just 217.5 points. Also note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 7-0 when the Grizzlies play at home after winning five or six of their last seven games ATS this season with those games totaling an average of just 210.3 points. The 'under' is also 15-3 when the Grizzlies come off a very high-scoring game totaling 245 points or more, as is the case here, over the last two seasons, with those contests producing an average of just 218.8 points. For their part, the Pacers have posted a 1-8 o/u record after attempting 90 shots or more in consecutive games this season and they've played to an average total of 225.4 points after consecutive games where 215 points or more were scored this season. It's interesting to note that the Grizzlies have actually been a lower-scoring team at home than on the road this season, recording a 9-17 o/u mark here in Memphis with those games totaling an average of 220.8 points. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-11-21 | Phillies v. Braves -155 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -155 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
MLB Sunday Night Baseball Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta over Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. The Braves have already assured themselves of a series victory over the Phillies by taking the first two games in this series but you can be sure they want to complete the sweep on Sunday night after getting swept themselves in a three-game series in Philadelphia last weekend. We've finally seen signs of life from the Braves slumping 2-through-4 hitters in this series with Freddie Freeman homering in each of the last two games, Ozzie Albies collecting an extra-base hit in consecutive games and Marcell Ozuna chipping in with a couple of hits and a walk. Tonight, Atlanta will be facing Phillies starter Matt Moore. He labored through his first start of the season, lasting just 3 1/3 innings while allowing four hits, four walks and two earned runs. Note that Moore struggled mightily in his last two full big league seasons in 2017 and 2018 (he pitched only 10 innings in 2019 and didn't pitch at all in 2020), allowing opponents to hit .283 and .305, respectively, while recording ugly hard-hit ball percentages of 44.9% and 48.3% not to mention line drive and fly ball percentages both north of the MLB average. The Braves are counting on veteran left-hander Drew Smyly to be a part of their rotation this season, paying him $11 million. He was solid in his season debut, giving up just two earned runs on four hits over six innings while striking out eight. While I'm not all that high on Smyly in the long-term picture, there's no denying that he's held his own in limited work going back to the start of last season. Given he had a terrific spring and picked up right where he left off in his first regular season outing, I'm willing to take a flyer on him here in this key early season division matchup with the Phillies. Take Atlanta (10*). | |||||||
04-11-21 | Coyotes v. Golden Knights UNDER 5.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 103 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
NHL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Vegas at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. We're going to go the contrarian route with this one given the 'over' has cashed in four of five meetings between these two teams this season, including a wild, high-scoring 7-4 Knights victory in the front half of this two-game set on Friday night. The Coyotes have now seen the 'over' cash in each of their last three games as they've uncharacteristically scored 12 goals while giving up 13 over that stretch. Note that Arizona has allowed just 2.0 goals per game after giving up five goals or more in a game this season. The Coyotes have averaged 3.8 goals per game themselves in that spot but I wouldn't count on that level of offensive production against a Knights squad that allows just 2.4 goals per game on home ice this season and prior to Friday's contest had given up three goals or less in four straight and six of their last seven games overall. Note that the 'under' has gone 11-3 with the Coyotes playing on the road off consecutive games where at least seven goals were scored, as is the case here, with those contests totaling just 4.8 goals on average. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-11-21 | Tigers v. Indians UNDER 9 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 15 m | Show |
MLB A.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Cleveland at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. The Indians bats woke up and delivered an 11-run performance in last night's blowout win. I wouldn't count on a repeat performance on Sunday, however. Keep in mind, prior to last night's game, the Indians had scored just eight runs combined over their last three games. Tigers starter Jose Urena didn't fare well in his season debut last week as he got lit up by the Twins at Comerica Park. There's a reason the Marlins stuck it out for six seasons with Urena and why the Tigers are paying him north of $3 million dollars here in 2021. This is a matchup he can handle against a very average Indians lineup. Logan Allen was effective over five innings in his first outing of the season for the Indians. He'll be facing a Tigers club that boasts one of the weakest offenses in baseball, having topped out at six runs this season, scoring four runs or less in six of eight contests to date. Both bullpens should have virtually all hands on deck after last night's lopsided game. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-11-21 | Cubs v. Pirates UNDER 8.5 | 1-7 | Win | 103 | 16 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Pittsburgh at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. The Pirates smashed the Cubs last night but I'm anticipating a more tightly-contested, low-scoring affair on Sunday afternoon at PNC Park. Trevor Williams will face his former team for the Cubs. He was sharp in his debut with the Cubbies, allowing just two earned runs over six innings against a good Brewers offense. He's certainly comfortable pitching here at PNC Park and faces a Pirates offense that ranks as one of the league's worst, even after last night's breakout performance. JT Brubaker will counter for Pittsburgh. He labored a bit through his first start but still gave up just one earned run through four innings of work. Like the Pirates, the Cubs offense has sputtered out of the gates and in this rubber match on Sunday afternoon, I suspect runs will be difficult to come by once again. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-10-21 | Kings v. Sharks UNDER 5.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and San Jose at 10:35 pm et on Saturday. We saw a relatively high-scoring affair between these two teams last night even though the scoring did settle down over the game's final two periods. Still, the 'under' has cashed in five of the last seven meetings here in San Jose. Note that the Kings have allowed just 2.1 goals per game when coming off a loss by three goals or more against a division opponent over the last three seasons. While they've averaged 3.3 goals per game themselves in that situation, they just haven't scored with any consistency on the road this season, averaging just 2.6 goals per game while the Sharks have given up two goals or less in four of their last five contests overall. For San Jose's part, the 'under' has gone 25-15 when it comes off a game where seven goals or more were scored over the last two seasons, as is the case here. Look for a return to 'normal' in this series on Saturday. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-10-21 | Angels v. Blue Jays UNDER 10.5 | Top | 1-15 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
MLB Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. I think there's a bit of an overreaction in the betting marketplace to the Blue Jays playing their home games in hitter-friendly Dunedin this season with the totals being set at 10 or higher in all three games in this series so far. The Blue Jays still aren't hitting so if they're going to snap their four-game skid on Saturday night, they're likely going to need to get some solid pitching from their staff, led by newly-acquired Steven Matz. Matz pitched well in his season debut, picking up where he left off after a solid spring. Note that the 'under' has gone 36-17 when Matz takes the ball off a team loss over the course of his career with those games producing an average total of 7.7 runs. I would expect some regression from the Angels offense here after it scored 14 runs in the first two games of this series. Veteran starter Jose Quintana takes the ball for Los Angeles, noting that the 'under' has gone 75-44 when he starts following a team win over the course of his career with those contests totaling an average of just 8.1 runs. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-10-21 | 76ers v. Thunder UNDER 218.5 | 117-93 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Oklahoma City at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. The 'over' has somewhat inexplicably cashed in each of the Thunder's last three games despite the fact that they've scored just 108, 102 and 102 points with a number of key cogs out of the lineup due to injuries. They are expected to get some help with the expected return of Al Horford tonight although I think that supports them more at the defensive end of the floor than offensively. The 76ers are coming off an ugly 101-94 loss in New Orleans last night. They've now shot 46.6% or worse in five of their last six games overall with the 'under' going 5-1 over that stretch. They could be without Joel Embiid tonight, which obviously doesn't help matters. Note that the 'under' has gone 29-16 after the Thunder are involved in a game totaling 225 points or more over the last two seasons. The 'under' is also 18-8 after Oklahoma City is involved in three straight games totaling 215 points or more over the last two seasons. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-10-21 | Lightning -175 v. Predators | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
NHL Chalk Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Nashville at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. The Lightning had been struggling prior to a six-goal outburst in a win over the Blue Jackets on Thursday. Now they head to Nashville where they look to keep hopes of a winning road trip alive against the surging Predators. I like Tampa Bay's chances here as it has taken three of the last four meetings in Nashville and will be out for revenge after suffering a stunning 4-1 loss against the Preds on home ice back on March 15th. Note that the Lightning are an incredible 34-11 after losing two of their last three games over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.1 goals per game in that situation. They're a terrific positive momentum play here as they've gone 36-11 after posting a win by two goals or more over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.4 goals on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Preds check in just 4-13 coming off consecutive road wins over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscored by 1.0 goal per game along the way. They've won just twice in their last 10 home games when coming off three straight wins, outscored by 0.9 goals on average in that spot. Take Tampa Bay (10*). | |||||||
04-10-21 | Wild v. Blues UNDER 5.5 | 2-3 | Win | 103 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and St. Louis at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair between these two teams last night with the Blues doing virtually all of the damage in a 9-1 victory. I would count on a repeat performance in tonight's rematch, noting that the Wild have allowed just 2.1 goals per game on average the last 28 times they've come off a loss by five goals or more. The 'under' has gone 13-3 with the Wild coming off consecutive games where seven total goals or more were scored over the last three seasons, with those contests totaling just 4.7 goals on average. The Blues scoring explosion last night could be considered an anomaly as they average just 2.8 goals per game on home ice this season. The 'under' has cashed in six of the last nine meetings in this series, including a 2-0 Wild victory in the lone previous meeting this season (prior to last night). Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-10-21 | Senators v. Maple Leafs OVER 6.5 | 5-6 | Win | 108 | 22 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Ottawa and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. This game has true high-scoring potential as the Senators head to Toronto to face the rival Maple Leafs on Saturday. We actually won with the 'under' in the Sens last game - a 3-2 loss to the Oilers on Thursday. Here, Ottawa is in a tough spot as it hits the road, where it has allowed a ridiculous 4.6 goals per game this season. Worse still, the Sens give up 5.2 goals per game when on the road revenging a one-goal loss against an opponent over the last three seasons with those contests totaling an average of 8.2 goals. There's reason to be confident in the Sens offense here though as well as Toronto has given up 3.8 goals per game when playing at home off a one-goal victory over a division opponent over the last three seasons, with those games producing an average total of 6.9 goals. Five of the last seven meetings between these two Ontario rivals in Toronto have gone 'over' the total. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
04-10-21 | Mariners v. Twins -170 | 4-3 | Loss | -170 | 4 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota over Seattle at 2:10 pm et on Saturday. This is a solid spot to back the Twins noting that they've gone an impressive 14-2 the last 16 times they've played at home after winning three of their last four games, outscoring opponents by a wide 2.6-run margin on average. Meanwhile, the Mariners are a negative momentum fade having gone 33-72, outscored by 1.9 runs per game on average after losing four or five of their last six games over the last three seasons. Note also that the Twins have outscored opponents by 2.3 runs per game on average the last 15 times they've come off a game where they've given up two runs or less, as is the case here. Look for Minnesota's red hot start to the season to continue here. Take Minnesota (10*). | |||||||
04-10-21 | Bruins v. Flyers UNDER 5.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Philadelphia at 2:05 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'over' in the Bruins last game - a 4-2 victory in Washington on Thursday. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' as Boston faces Philadelphia for the third time in the last week. Note that the Flyers are coming off a 3-2 shootout loss against the Islanders on Thursday and have now been held to three goals or less in 10 of their last 11 games overall. On a positive note, we have seen Philadelphia's leaky defense and goaltending show some signs of improvement, allowing just 10 goals in regulation time over its last four games. Note that the 'under' is 24-10 when the Bruins come off consecutive 'over' result over the last three seasons with those contests totaling 5.3 goals on average. Better still, the 'under' is 23-12 when the Bruins play on the road off a division win over the last two seasons with those games reaching just 5.0 total goals. This has generally been a high-scoring series but I'll go the contrarian route here in this matinee affair on Saturday. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-10-21 | Yankees v. Rays UNDER 9 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 3 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Tampa Bay at 1:10 pm et on Saturday. We saw a slugfest between these two teams in yesterday's series-opener as the Rays fell behind early but rallied for a convincing 10-5 victory. I'm anticipating a much lower-scoring affair in this quick turnaround spot on Saturday afternoon as both teams send starting pitchers with a lot to prove to the mound in Domingo German for the Yankees and Chris Archer for the Rays. German lasted just three innings in his regular season debut against Toronto last week - his first big league start since 2019. We should see him get stretched out a little more here and while the Rays offense looks pretty imposing after yesterday's 10-run outburst, they've actually been quite inconsistent so far this season, scoring two runs or less in three of their first seven contests. Chris Archer was once considered an ace but injuries have taken their toll and he's back at it for the first time since 2019 as well here in 2021. Archer did pitch two innings in relief against the Marlins last week, and got hit hard. I would anticipate a solid bounce-back effort here on Saturday, however, as he makes his first big league start since August of 2019. The Yankees have topped out at seven runs this season and have been held to five runs or less in five of their first seven games. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-09-21 | Kings +119 v. Sharks | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
NHL Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles over San Jose at 10:35 pm et on Friday. I like the way this spot sets up for the Kings after they snapped a three-game losing streak with a come-from-behind win over the Coyotes on home ice two nights ago. While they were able to get back on track, the Sharks have had to sit on an ugly 5-1 home loss against the lowly Ducks since suffering that setback on Tuesday night. San Jose is now just 7-9 on home ice this season, where it allows 3.4 goals per game. Note that the Kings are in a favorable spot here, as they average 4.0 goals per game after giving up three goals or more in three straight games over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.9 goals per game in that spot. Los Angeles has averaged 3.3 goals per game while outscoring the opposition by an average of 0.4 goals when revenging a one-goal loss this season, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the Sharks average just 2.1 goals per game and have been outscored by an average margin of 0.8 goals when playing at home after allowing five goals or more in their last contest. San Jose has owned this series this season, taking five of six meetings so far, but I look for the Kings to get one back in the front half of this two-game set tonight. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
04-09-21 | Rockets +12 v. Clippers | Top | 109-126 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Houston plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Friday. This is a 'name your score' type of game for the Clippers but as we know from recent history, they don't always fare that well in that type of situation. We cashed the Magic in an outright underdog victory in a similar spot on March 30th. On that night, the Clippers were also playing the second of back-to-backs and also coming off consecutive games in which they shot 50% or better from the field. Here, we find Los Angeles coming off a victory over the Suns last night (we won with the 'under') - their third consecutive SU and ATS win. Note that the Clips have allowed 116.7 points per game when playing at home off consecutive ATS wins as a favorite over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by just 1.8 points per game in that situation. They've also gone just 8-21 ATS the last 29 times they've played at home off three consecutive home victories, outscoring opponents by just 1.6 points on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Rockets have actually been playing some competitive basketball lately, going 4-3 ATS over their last seven contests, including an upset win over the Mavericks two nights ago - a game in which Dallas did put forth a quality effort with a full roster and no limits on minutes even though it was the front half of a back-to-back. The Rockets won't have John Wall on Friday night after he poured in 31 points on Wednesday but they also didn't have him two games back when they gave the Suns all they could handle in a narrow 133-130 loss. As bad as the Rockets have been at times this season, they've still only been outscored by 5.5 points per game on the road. I'm not sure how interested the Clippers will be in laying a beatdown here while Houston has shown that it hasn't quit on the season despite its miserable record. Take Houston (10*). | |||||||
04-09-21 | Coyotes v. Golden Knights UNDER 5.5 | 4-7 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Vegas at 10:05 pm et on Friday. We missed with the 'under' in the Coyotes most recent game - a 4-3 loss to the Kings on Wednesday night. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here, however, as I expect to see things to return to 'normal' after an extended stretch of Arizona 'over' results. Note that the 'under' has gone 11-2 with the Coyotes on the road after consecutive games that totaled seven goals or more over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of just 4.3 goals. While the 'Yotes have scored 18 goals over the first five games of this long road trip, they still average just 2.7 goals per game on the road this season. Vegas checks in off a 3-1 loss against the slumping Blues in St. Louis two nights ago. Note that the Golden Knights have allowed just 1.7 goals per game when coming off a road loss against a division opponent over the last two seasons. Of course, they've been terrific defensively at home this season, giving up just 2.3 goals per game. Conversely, the Knights have scored more than two goals just once in their last five contests. The 'under' has cashed in five of their last seven games overall. We've also seen the 'under' go 9-7 in the last 16 meetings in this series. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-09-21 | Grizzlies v. Knicks UNDER 214.5 | 129-133 | Loss | -112 | 13 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Memphis and New York at 7:40 pm et on Friday. This is a fairly low posted total by today's NBA standards but I feel it's warranted. The Grizzlies are coming off consecutive 'over' results, scoring a whopping 124 and 131 points in the process. They'll face a tough test here though, noting that the Knicks have allowed just 104.7 points per game on 44.7% shooting at home this season. The 'under' has gone 14-10 in Knicks home games this season. Also note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 8-0 when New York comes off a road loss by three points or less over the last three seasons, with those games totaling an average of just 194.4 points. We've also seen the 'under' cash at an 18-8 clip after the Knicks have lost four of their last five games over the last two seasons with those contests totaling an average of just 207.6 points. This is the tail-end of a four-game road trip for the Grizzlies and it will be their fifth game in the last eight nights, in five different cities no less. After shooting 54.8% and 53.9% in their last two games I would certainly anticipate some regression from the Memphis offense here. On the flip side, the Grizz have been locked in defensively, holding five of their last six opponents to 44.7% shooting or worse. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-09-21 | Grizzlies v. Knicks +2 | Top | 129-133 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on New York plus the points over Memphis at 7:40 pm et on Friday. The Knicks are in a bit of a lull right now, having lost five of their last six games but it's worth noting that four of those five games were played on the road and three of those losses almost certainly could have gone either way. While this looks like an awfully tough matchup on paper with the Grizzlies coming in off four straight victories, including a perfect 3-0 start to this current road trip, I expect New York to be up for the challenge. Note that the Grizz have caught a couple of favorable situations on this trip with the 76ers sitting Joel Embiid last Sunday and the Hawks missing a number of key cogs on Wednesday. After shooting a blistering 54.8% and 53.9% over their last two games, I'm certainly anticipating some offensive regression from the Grizzlies here, as they face a Knicks squad that allows just 104.7 points per game on 44.7% shooting at home this season. Note that New York is 10-1 ATS at home with the line set between +3 and -3 this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 8.9 points in those contests. Also note that the Knicks have outscored opponents by 3.7 points per game following a loss by six points or less this season, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the Grizz have been outscored by 2.5 points per game when playing on the road after winning four or five of their last six games over the last three seasons. Take New York (10*). | |||||||
04-09-21 | Phillies v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-8 | Loss | -114 | 22 h 51 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Friday. This is a rematch of a Phillies 4-0 victory last weekend and I'm anticipating another low-scoring contest on Friday night in Atlanta. Zack Wheeler will once again take the ball for the Phillies. He finished 12th in N.L. Cy Young award voting last season and picked up right where he left off in his first start of 2021. Wheeler allowed just one hit over seven shutout innings against the Braves last week, striking out 10 along the way. He is above average in nearly all of the key advanced pitching stat categories, most notably allowing a 2.2% home run percentage and a 34% hard-hit ball percentage over the course of his career, both considerably better than the MLB averages. The same goes for Braves starter Charlie Morton. That's even more impressive when you consider how poorly he performed early in his career. Morton owns a career 35.5% hard-hit ball percentage, a 52.7% ground ball percentage and a staggering 18.9% fly ball percentage. He has recorded a strikeout percentage of at least 24.7% in each of the last five seasons, much higher than the MLB average of 20.2%. Note that the 'under' has gone 16-4 the last 20 times the Phillies come off three or more consecutive 'over' results, as is the case here, with those games totaling an average of just 7.5 runs. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-09-21 | Rockies v. Giants OVER 8 | 1-3 | Loss | -114 | 5 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and San Francisco at 4:35 pm et on Friday. The Rockies are coming off consecutive wins to grab a series win over the D'Backs at Coors Field. Here, I'm anticipating another relatively high-scoring affair as they head to San Francisco to face the Giants. Austin Gomber will take the ball for the Rockies. He got in limited work with the Cardinals last season, pitching just 29 innings but faring well, limiting opposing hitters to a .190 batting average while recording an impressive 0.8% home run percentage and a 17.3% fly ball percentage, both considerably better than average when compared to the rest of MLB - but again, we're talking about a very small sample size. After issuing a whopping seven walks over just three innings in his regular season debut with Colorado last week, there is reason for concern here. Note that he also recorded a scary 57.1% fly ball percentage in his 2021 debut. Veteran Johnny Cueto will counter for San Francisco. While he allowed just three earned runs over 5 2/3 innings in his season debut there was some reason for concern as he posted a 50% hard-hit ball percentage, also giving up six hits and three walks along the way. Note that Cueto is on the decline, having posted his two highest base-on-ball percentages of his entire career over the last two seasons while also seeing his home run percentage creep up considerably over that same stretch. He also posted a 42.9% line drive percentage in his first start this year, so opposing hitters were certainly making good contact. The 'over' has gone 30-13 when Cueto takes the hill at home with the total set at 8.0 or 8.5, with those games averaging 9.6 total runs. Interestingly, we've also seen the 'over' go 13-3 when the Giants come off a five-game stretch in which they batted .200 or worse as a team over the last three seasons, as is the case here, with those contests totaling 10.4 runs on average. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
04-08-21 | Suns v. Clippers UNDER 223 | Top | 103-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in the Suns win over the Jazz last night, which was truly a bad beat as only 204 points were scored in regulation time. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as Phoenix plays in a back-to-back spot against the Clippers in Los Angeles. After shooting better than 51% from the field in four straight games, the Suns shot just 44.6% last night and I would expect some continued regression against a good Clippers defense that allows just 108.4 points per game on 46.1% shooting at home this season. The Clips, like last night's opponent the Jazz, are locked in defensively right now having limited three of their last four opponents to 41.3% or worse shooting. For its part, Phoenix has allowed just one of its last 13 opponents to shoot better than 50% from the field. The Suns have been every bit as good defensively on the road as at home, giving up 107.7 ppg on 45.9% shooting. Note that the 'under' is 29-15 when the Suns play on the road following an 'over' result over the last three seasons. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-08-21 | Penguins +109 v. Rangers | Top | 5-2 | Win | 109 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
NHL East Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh over New York at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. I think we're dealing with a bit of an overreaction here following the Rangers 8-4 thrashing of the Penguins on Tuesday night (we won with the 'over' in that game). Pittsburgh has now dropped back-to-back games, in fact, allowing a whopping 15 goals in the process. I don't think it's time to hit the panic button, however, noting that prior to those two contests the Pens had held 15 straight opponents to three goals or less. Pittsburgh is set up well here on Thursday, noting that it has gone a perfect 7-0 when coming off consecutive division losses over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 2.3 goals per game in that situation. The Pens are also 24-10 after allowing three or more goals in consecutive games over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.8 goals on average in that spot. Finally, we've seen Pittsburgh post a 14-4 record when revenging a loss by three goals or more against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 1.1 goals per game in that situation. Meanwhile, the Rangers are 3-11 in their last 14 games played at home following a win over a division opponent. While the Blueshirts took Tuesday's matchup in blowout fashion, the Pens have held their own here at MSG, splitting the last six meetings. Take Pittsburgh (10*). | |||||||
04-08-21 | Bruins v. Capitals OVER 5.5 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Capitals are back home after dropping three of five games on the road and are coming off a 1-0 setback against the Islanders two nights ago. Here, they're set up well for a high-scoring result, noting that they average 4.3 goals per game when returning home off at least four straight games on the road, with the 'over' cashing at a perfect 7-0 clip in that situation over the last three seasons. Those contests totaled an average of 7.9 goals. The Bruins have scored at least four goals in three of their last five games and face a Caps squad that has allowed 3.6 goals per game when revenging a loss against an opponent as a road favorite over the last two seasons, as is the case here. The 'over' has gone 18-6 in that situation with an average total goals scored of 7.1. Three of the last five meetings between these two teams here in Washington have gone 'over' the total. Take the over (9*). | |||||||
04-08-21 | Oilers v. Senators UNDER 6.5 | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Edmonton and Ottawa at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. We saw six total goals scored between these two teams last night with the Oilers scoring a couple of goals late including an empty-netter with just 1.5 seconds remaining in the third period. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair, noting that the 'under' has gone 8-1 this season when the Oilers play at home after losing four or five of their last six games, with those contests totaling an average of just 4.5 goals. The 'under' is also 20-10 when the Senators play at home after giving up three goals or more in three consecutive games, as is the case here, over the last three seasons. That situation has produced an average total of 5.5 goals. Meanwhile, the Oilers average just 2.3 goals per game coming off a road win over a division opponent over the last three seasons. Edmonton checks in having allowed just 2.7 goals per game on the road this season. Take the under (9*). | |||||||
04-08-21 | Brewers v. Cardinals UNDER 8 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and St. Louis at 4:15 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'under' in the Brewers 4-2 extra innings victory over the Cubs yesterday afternoon and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Thursday. The Brewers will send another of their promising young arms to the mound for the opener of this series. Corbin Burnes quietly finished sixth in N.L. Cy Young award voting last season and turned in an exceptional spring prior to dominating a solid Twins lineup in his season debut last week. Burnes checks in above average in virtually all of the key advanced pitching stat categories and as I said, he was positively dominant in his first start of the season, not allowing a single line drive and recording an exceptional 66.7% ground ball percentage. Veteran Adam Wainwright will counter for St. Louis. He might be catching the Brewers at the right time as they're by no means tearing the cover off the ball right now. Were it not for two long balls from Lorenzo Cain yesterday they might have been held off the scoreboard entirely against Chicago. Wainwright is coming off a 2020 campaign in which he improved on his hits allowed per nine innings and walks per nine innings considerably. While he was ripped for six earned runs and didn't last three innings against the red hot Reds bats in his season debut, he actually posted a respectable 35.7% hard-hit ball percentage and 57.1% ground ball percentage. He's been here before starting the Cardinals home opener and I expect him to pitch well enough to help keep this one 'under' the total. Note that the 'under' is 28-11 in Wainwright's 39 career home starts when priced between +125 and -125, as is the case here at the time of writing, with those games totaling just 6.9 total runs on average. The 'under' has cashed in each of the Brewers last three contests. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-07-21 | Jazz v. Suns UNDER 225.5 | Top | 113-117 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 1 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. The lone previous matchup between these two teams this season took place back on New Year's Eve, with the Suns posting a relatively low-scoring 106-95 win in Utah. We're dealing with a higher posted total this time around (the closing total on December 31st was 219) but I'm not sure it's warranted. Yes, Phoenix is on fire (no pun intended) offensively right now, having scored 140 and 133 points in its last two games. Those offensive outbursts weren't overly surprising, however, as they came at the expense of the injury-riddled Thunder and lowly Rockets. Concerning was the fact that they allowed Houston and its generally-inept offense to shoot better than 54% from the field last time out. Phoenix is obviously a better defensive team than that and should rise to the occasion in this showdown with the first-place Jazz, noting that the Suns allow just 107.7 points per game on 45.4% shooting at home this season and had held 11 straight opponents to below 50% shooting prior to that game against the Rockets. I mentioned the Suns offense - they've shot better than 51% from the field in four straight games heading into tonight's contest - their longest streak of that sort this season. They'll be hard-pressed to keep it going here against a Jazz defense that has been locked in lately, holding 10 consecutive opponents to 48.3% or worse shooting. Utah allows 111.2 ppg on 46.2% shooting on the road this season. Note that the Suns have allowed just 104.6 ppg following an ATS loss this season, with those games totaling an average of 219.8 points. Meanwhile, the Jazz have posted a 119-143 o/u record following an ATS loss under the guidance of head coach Quin Snyder, with those contests totaling an average of 204.7 points (that trend does back a little further than I would like but is still worth noting). Finally, the 'under' has cashed in each of the last three meetings between these two teams. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-07-21 | Coyotes v. Kings -114 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 24 h 28 m | Show |
NHL West Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles over Arizona at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. We missed the mark with the Kings in a game that was never close against the Coyotes on Monday. With that being said, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with Los Angeles here as it aims to snap its three-game skid on home ice. While the Coyotes have reeled off three straight road wins, this will be their fifth game in the last eight nights and it's certainly worth noting that they have been outscored by 0.4 goals per game on the road this season. The Kings average 4.0 goals per game after giving up three goals or more in three straight games this season, outscoring opponents by 0.9 goals per game in that situation. They've also gone 5-1 off three or more straight home losses over the last three seasons, giving up just 1.7 goals per game and outscoring the opposition by an average of 1.6 goals in that spot. Meanwhile, Arizona checks in a miserable 26-63 the last 89 times it has come off consecutive games in which it allowed two goals or less, as is the case here, outscored by 0.8 goals per game in that situation. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
04-07-21 | Coyotes v. Kings UNDER 5.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -121 | 9 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Coyotes skated to a 5-2 victory in the front half of this two-game set in Los Angeles on Monday night. I look for things to return to 'normal' on Wednesday, however, in terms of offensive production. Note that Arizona averages just 2.7 goals per game on the road this season. Here, it faces a Kings squad that has allowed just 1.7 goals per game when coming off three consecutive losses on home ice over the last three seasons. Also note that the Coyotes average just 2.2 goals per game when playing on the road off a road win over the last three seasons, with the 'under' cashing at a 19-7 clip with an average total of just 5.0 goals in that situation. This hasn't been a particularly high-scoring series with the 'under' cashing in four of the last five meetings here at Staples Center. Take the under (9*). | |||||||
04-07-21 | Avalanche v. Wild UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 15 m | Show |
NHL West Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Minnesota at 9:05 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a high-scoring affair between these two teams on Monday night as the Avalanche stayed hot with a 5-4 victory. The 'over' has now cashed in four straight meetings in this series but I look for a different story to unfold on Wednesday. Note that the 'under' has still cashed in four of the last seven meetings here in Minnesota. The Avs have posted a 4-12 o/u record when playing on the road off a one-goal road win over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of just 5.0 goals. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 15-6 with the Wild playing at home following an 'over' result over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling just 4.9 goals on average. I'll also point out that the 'under' has gone 8-1 with the Wild playing with triple-revenge on home ice over the last three seasons, with those games reaching an average total of only 3.9 goals. The 'under' has cashed in 10 of Minnesota's 17 home games this season with the Wild allowing only 2.1 goals per game. This is certainly a tough challenge based on how well the Avs have been playing, but I'm anticipating a tightly-contested, relatively low-scoring affair on Wednesday night. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-07-21 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies -104 | Top | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
MLB N.L. West Game of the Week. My selection is on Colorado over Arizona at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Rockies are certainly a tough team to trust right now on the heels of four straight losses including a wild, 10-8 setback against the D'Backs last night. They'll hand the ball to Antonio Senzatela tonight after he was lit up for seven earned runs in just 3 1/3 innings in his season debut. Senzatela took a step forward last season, going 5-3 with a 3.44 ERA and 1.21 WHIP, cutting down on his walks considerably - a theme that continued in the spring this year. On a positive note he did issue only one walk in his season debut and also posted a 29.4% hard-hit ball percentage. His opposing starter tonight, Madison Bumgarner, also got hit hard in his first start of the season, which is pretty much par for the course based on what we've seen from him over the last couple of seasons. Bumgarner was well above the MLB average in home run percentage and walk percentage last season. He has posted a hard-hit ball percentage north of 40% in each of the last two seasons and last week against the Padres that number reached 53.8%. By contrast, the MLB average in that category is 38.7%. Rockies starter Senzatela owns a 24-11 team record in 35 career starts at Coors Field with Colorado outscoring the opposition by 0.8 runs per game. Take Colorado (10*). | |||||||
04-07-21 | Canadiens v. Maple Leafs UNDER 6 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Montreal and Toronto at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Leafs are coming off a relatively high-scoring two-game set in Calgary on Sunday and Monday, with 14 total goals scored in those two contests. I look for the scoring to settle down on Wednesday, however, as they return home to host the rival Canadiens. Note that Toronto has now allowed three goals or less in eight straight games. The 'under' has gone 11-3 with the Leafs coming off a win by two goals or more this season with those games totaling an average of just 4.9 goals. Toronto has been solid defensively at home this season, giving up just 2.6 goals per game. Meanwhile, the Canadiens have posted a 3-12 o/u record when revenging a loss against an opponent in which they gave up five goals or more over the last two seasons with those contests totaling an average of just 5.2 goals. Montreal isn't set up particularly well offensively here, even as it has scored 3.3 goals on the road this season, noting that it averages just 2.5 goals per game after winning four of its last five games over the last two seasons. Take the under (9*). | |||||||
04-07-21 | Oilers v. Senators UNDER 6.5 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Edmonton and Ottawa at 5:05 pm et on Wednesday. Note the early start time for this Wednesday matchup. The Senators are coming off consecutive high-scoring affairs, splitting games in Montreal and Winnipeg. We've seen a considerable home-road dichotomy when it comes to the Sens this season as they've posted a 7-12 o/u record here on home ice, with those games totaling just 5.6 goals on average. While Ottawa is thought of as one of the league's worst defensive teams, it has actually held its own here in Kanata, allowing just 2.8 goals per game. The Sens do of course have their issues between the pipes, with Marcus Hogberg potentially returning on Wednesday, following a conditioning stint. Keep in mind, the Oilers high-octane offense hasn't exactly been lighting it up lately, failing to score more than three goals in a game since potting four at home against the Jets back on March 20th. The 'under' has gone 10-7-1 in Edmonton road games this season and it has certainly held its own defensively in those games, giving up just 2.7 goals per contest. Note that the Sens have posted a 1-9 o/u mark when playing at home after losing two of their last three games, as is the case here today. The 'over' has cashed in the last two meetings in this series but both of those games were played in Edmonton. In their last two matchups here in Ottawa, the 'under' has cashed on both occasions. Take the under (9*). | |||||||
04-07-21 | Brewers v. Cubs UNDER 9 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 35 m | Show |
N.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Chicago at 2:20 pm et on Wednesday. Both of today's starters are coming off uncharacteristically poor season debuts last week but I'm confident we'll see both get on track here today at Wrigley Field. Brandon Woodruff lasted only four innings in his first start against the Twins, struggling with his command throughout. Keep in mind, he's gotten better with each passing season and last year posted a 3.05 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. Through his four-year big league career he's been above average in virtually all of the key advanced stat categories and I'm confident he'll bounce back against a Cubs lineup that has yet to really get going this season. Kyle Hendricks finished ninth in N.L. Cy Young Award voting last season, recording a 2.88 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. Even though he lasted only three innings in his 2021 debut, it's not as if he was hit hard. In that outing he posted a 22.2% hard-hit ball percentage, an 11.1% line drive percentage and an impressive 77.8% ground ball percentage. Like the Cubs, the Brewers are still struggling to score runs with consistency this season. Note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 7-0 in Woodruff's last seven starts against opponents that own winning record, with those games totaling an average of just 4.9 runs. The 'under' is also 16-5 in the Brewers last 21 road games against right-handed starters, with those contests totaling just 6.9 runs on average. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-06-21 | Dodgers v. A's UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
MLB Revenge Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in the opener of this short two-game set in Oakland last night as the Dodgers offense jumped ahead early and tacked on more offense late to push the game 'over' the total. I won't hesitate to go back to the well on Tuesday, however, as the A's look to earn some quick 'revenge' while Dodgers former ace (and now number-two guy behind Walker Buehler) Clayton Kershaw tries to bounce-back from a brutal Opening Day start in Colorado. Kershaw certainly wasn't at his best against the Rockies last time out, missing very few bats over the course of 5 2/3 laborous innings. Kershaw has been here before, though, with doubters coming out of the woodwork in droves. I'm confident we'll see him respond with a strong performance tonight - it helps that he's facing an A's club that hasn't hit well at all during an 0-5 slide to open the season. Chris Bassitt will counter for Oakland. He quietly finished eighth in A.L. Cy Young Award voting during a Covid-shortened 2020 campaign. Bassitt has seen his walks per nine innings decrease in each of the last three seasons, not to mention the fact he's given up less than 1.0 home run per nine innings in two of those three campaigns. He worked at least into the sixth inning in 10 of 11 regular season starts last season and while he wasn't at his best in his first start this season, he still managed to give the A's 5 1/3 innings, allowing just three earned runs against a red hot Astros offense. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-06-21 | Grizzlies v. Heat -193 | 124-112 | Loss | -193 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami (moneyline) over Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. To put it simply, this moneyline price has no business being under -200 on Tuesday night, so we'll jump in with a play on the Heat to win straight-up. Keep in mind, Miami was favored on the road when it faced the Grizzlies back on March 17th, losing that game by an 89-85 score which started off an ugly six-game slide. You can be sure the Heat have had this game circled on their calendar since. Miami is playing much better now, having won four games in a row. It's obvious that they're serious about the task at hand right now as they easily could have overlooked the lowly Cavaliers on Saturday but instead delivered a spread-covering 14-point victory, holding Cleveland to just 101 points in the process. The Heat are essentially as healthy as they've been all season right now and host a Grizzlies squad that is without a few key cogs. Memphis delivered a stunning 16-point win in Philadelphia on Sunday but that was essentially a throw-away game for the 76ers, playing on back-to-back nights just a couple of days removed from a long road trip. Doc Rivers managed his starters minutes carefully in that game and sat Joel Embiid. Prior to that victory the Grizzlies had won just two of their last five games and those victories came against the lowly Rockets and T'Wolves. Note that Miami is 7-1 SU when at home revenging a same-season loss against an opponent this season. The Heat have taken each of their last two home meetings with the Grizzlies. Take Miami moneyline (9*). | |||||||
04-06-21 | Predators v. Red Wings UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
NHL Central Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Nashville and Detroit at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Red Wings are coming off a stunning 5-1 win over the Lightning in Tampa on Sunday afternoon but I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair as they return home to host the Predators on Tuesday. The Predators are hot right now, winners of seven of their last eight games overall. Note, however, that they've scored more than three goals just once over their last seven contests, that coming in a seven-goal outburst against these same Red Wings back on March 25th. The Preds aren't set up particularly well here, noting that they average just 2.1 goals per game when playing on the road off a win over a division opponent over the last two seasons, with the 'under' going 12-3 in that situation with an average total of just 4.1 goals. For their part, the Wings have seen the 'under' go 10-2-1 off a win this season, with those games averaging a total of 4.8 goals. For all of its struggles, Detroit has actually been fairly tough in its own end here at home this season, allowing just 2.6 goals per game. The problem has been the Wings lacking offense as it scores just 2.4 goals per game here at Little Caesar's Arena. With both teams missing a number of key cogs up front due to injury, I'll call for a reasonably low-event game on Tuesday night in the Motor City. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-06-21 | Penguins v. Rangers OVER 6 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and New York at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Rangers are coming off consecutive low-scoring games in Buffalo, grabbing three of a total of four points in the process as they continue to fight to reach the postseason. Perhaps we can chalk up the fact that they managed to score only four goals in regulation time in those two games in Buffalo to New York's youth. It would have certainly been easy for the Rangers to overlook the lowly Sabres, especially coming off a hard-fought two-game split against the Capitals in which New York scored nine goals. Here, I look for the Rangers offense to get back on track at home, where they've averaged 3.3 goals per game this season, and square off against a Penguins squad that has given up a less than impressive 3.2 goals per game on the road. Perhaps not surprisingly, three of the last five meetings between these two teams in New York have gone 'over' the total. The Pens would like to tighten things up after suffering a wild 7-5 loss against the Bruins in Boston on Saturday. However, the trends don't point to that as they've posted a 10-2 o/u record when coming off a loss by two goals or more against a division opponent over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 6.7 goals. Also note that the 'over' is a perfect 6-0 when the Penguins come off a road loss by two goals or more this season with those games totaling an average of 7.3 goals. Meanwhile, the Rangers average 3.5 goals per game off a loss over the last two seasons. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
04-05-21 | Coyotes v. Kings -120 | 5-2 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Arizona at 10:05 pm et on Monday. We missed the mark with the Kings on Saturday as they fell by a 3-2 score against the Sharks. That marked their second straight loss after splitting a two-game set in Las Vegas. I won't hesitate to go back to the well here, however, as Los Angeles stays at home to host the Coyotes, who are off an overtime win Anaheim last night. That sets up Arizona poorly as it checks in 2-11 off a road win by one goal over the last two seasons, outscored by 1.6 goals on average in that situation. The Kings check in outscoring opponents by 0.7 goals on average when playing at home after losing three of their last four games this season. In the long-term picture, the 'Yotes have posted a miserable 25-63 record after allowing two goals or less in consecutive games, outscored by 0.9 goals per game in that spot. While Arizona has won six of its last eight games overall, four of those victories came against losing opponents in the Sharks and Ducks and the other came in a shootout against the Avalanche (with Colorado starting its third-string goaltender). Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
04-05-21 | Dodgers v. A's UNDER 9 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -117 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Monday. The A's are off to a miserable start this season after getting swept in a four-game series against the division-rival Astros. While I'm not ready to take a flyer on them just yet, I do expect them to do a better job of keeping the Dodgers offense at bay than they did against Houston and will back the 'under' in the opener of this mini two-game set on Monday night. Dustin May will take the ball for the Dodgers. He finished fifth in N.L. Rookie of the Year voting last season and appeared to be rounding into form as the Dodgers exhibition schedule drew to a close, allowing just five earned runs in 19 innings of work while striking out 17 over his final three Spring Training outings, covering a span of 14 innings. Frankie Montas took a step back for the A's in 2020 after consistently pitching well in 2018 and 2019. On a positive note, he did see his strikeouts per nine innings rare increase for the second straight season to a career-high 10.2. He quite simply gave up too many hits, home runs and walks but I'm willing to chalk it up as an anomaly during what was certainly a strange Covid-shortened 2020 campaign. The A's just aren't hitting right now and while the Dodgers have scored plenty, they're coming off a four-game series at hitter-friendly Coors Field. Expect a different story to unfold in Oakland. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-05-21 | Baylor v. Gonzaga UNDER 160 | 86-70 | Win | 100 | 36 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Baylor and Gonzaga at 9:20 pm et on Monday. We won with the 'over' in Gonzaga's thrilling overtime victory over UCLA on Saturday while missing by a bucket with the 'under' in Baylor rout of Houston. Here, I love the way the 'under' sets up with what I feel is an inflated total for the final. Credit UCLA for hanging around in a game where most felt it would be overmatched on Saturday. It wasn't that Gonzaga played that poorly defensively, the Bruins quite simply knocked down their shots, hitting 58% from the field, in fact. There's no reason to get down on the Zags defense heading into Monday's game, however, noting that while known for its prolific offense, this is a Bulldogs squad that entered the tournament ranked 13th nationally in opponents floor percentage and 31st in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage. Unlike UCLA, Baylor does possess the length and athleticism to contend with the Zags offense in my opinion. The Bears have an active defense that entered the tourney ranked seventh in the country in steals per possession and 71st in block percentage. That's not to mention a very respectable 44th in opponents floor percentage. If anything, we've seen Baylor get stronger defensively as this tournament as gone on. The Bears not surprisingly got sped up a bit against Arkansas in the Elite Eight but outside of that we've seen them prefer to play a halfcourt game. This one is being priced as a potential track meet and while both teams have the pro-level talent to bring that to fruition, I believe there's a better chance we see the defenses step up and keep this one 'under' the lofty total. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-05-21 | Baylor v. Gonzaga -4 | Top | 86-70 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
NCAA Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on Gonzaga minus the points over Baylor at 9:20 pm et on Monday. We won with the 'over' in Gonzaga's thrilling semi-final victory over UCLA on Saturday. Here, I'll switch gears and look at the side as we back the Bulldogs in their final showdown with Baylor. I hesitate to say that the Zags merely survived Saturday's buzzer-beating win over UCLA. You could certainly make the case that both teams deserved the win on that night - the Zags were simply able to make one more shot than the Bruins. With that being said, I give a ton of credit to UCLA. It shot an exceptional 57.6% from the field, knocking down incredibly tough shots all night long. Keep in mind, that was only the third time all season that Gonzaga allowed an opponent to shoot 50% or better from the field. In two previous occurrences, the Bulldogs followed it up with an ATS victory, holding Auburn to 37.3% shooting in a 23-point rout on November 27th and limiting Creighton to 40.6% shooting in an 18-point victory earlier in this tournament. Considering the Bruins shot so well, and also held a 32-26 rebounding edge, the Zags should be incredibly pleased with the fact that they were able to come away victorious on Saturday. Here, I certainly don't expect Baylor to shoot nearly as well, nor do I expect the Zags to lose the rebounding battle (note they hadn't been outrebounded in a game since February 27th prior to Saturday's contest). Note that the Zags entered this tournament ranked 11th in the nation in total rebounding percentage and 13th in opponents floor percentage. By contrast, Baylor checked in ranked 44th in both of those categories. For Baylor's part, it shot an impressive 52.7% from the field in Saturday's blowout win over Houston. The Cougars were quite simply overmatched from the start in that game as the Bears jumped ahead early and never looked back. Now I question whether Baylor can get right back up to the necessary level of intensity to stage the upset against Gonzaga. Note that Saturday's game marked the first time in six games that the Bears shot better than 50% from the field. It was also the first time they outrebounded an opponent since a lopsided victory over Hartford in the opening round of this tournament. We know that Gonzaga prefers to play at a fast pace, entering the tournament ranked 16th nationally in possessions per game. Also note that the Zags have gone 28-14 ATS with the total set in the 150's over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 26.1 points. Take Gonzaga (10*). | |||||||
04-05-21 | Pistons v. Thunder UNDER 213 | Top | 132-108 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Oklahoma City at 7:10 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams will be missing key cogs on Monday night as a matchup that would have been pretty ugly to begin with gets even uglier. Mason Plumlee has been ruled out for the Pistons due to scheduled rest. Meanwhile, the Thunder are missing a handful of key contributors, most notably Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Oklahoma City is coming off consecutive drummings at the hands of the Suns and Blazers on Friday and Saturday, allowing a whopping 140 and 133 points in those two setbacks, respectively. I do expect the Thunder to at least show some pride and play a little defense on Monday and this is a favorable matchup to do so with the Pistons having been held to 101 points or less in three of their last five games. In fact, going back to March 13th, Detroit has been held under 100 points on five different occasions, which is pretty staggering by today's high-scoring NBA standards. The Pistons are coming off a blowout loss at home against the Knicks on Sunday in a game that was never competitive. It is worth noting that they've allowed just 104.1 points per game when coming off a double-digit home loss this season. Also note that the 'under' is 8-1 when the Thunder come off three straight games totaling 215 points or more this season, with those contests reaching an average total of just 206.5 points. The last meeting between these two teams in Oklahoma City produced just 209 points last February. The argument can certainly be made that both offenses are far worse off now than they were then. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-05-21 | Twins -143 v. Tigers | 15-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota over Detroit at 1:10 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are coming off winning series' to open the season but I like the Twins to keep the positive momentum building on Monday afternoon at Comerica Park. Matt Shoemaker will make his first start for Minnesota. He got lit up in one exhibition start but was solid in three others and didn't issue a single walk over 12 1/3 innings of work, striking out eight batters along the way. In start contrast, Twins starter Jose Urena didn't miss many bats at all during the exhibition schedule, striking out just five batters and issuing nine walks in 14 innings pitched. While Urena will be making his first start with the Tigers, his career team record of 16-37 leaves a lot to be desired. After consecutive strong showings at the plate to start the season, we saw some regression from the Tigers yesterday as they managed only two hits in a blowout loss to the Indians. Look for the Twins to hand them a second straight loss on Monday afternoon. Take Minnesota (10*). | |||||||
04-04-21 | Coyotes v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Anaheim at 9:05 pm et on Sunday. The Coyotes took the front half of this two-game set in Anaheim by a 4-2 score on Friday night but I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair in Sunday's rematch. Note that the Coyotes average just 2.3 goals per game when playing on the road after notching a road victory in which they scored four goals or more over the last two seasons with those games totaling an average of 4.6 goals. The 'under' has cashed at a perfect 7-0 clip in that situation. Meanwhile, the Ducks average a miserable 1.6 goals per game when revenging a home loss by two goals or more this season. They've also allowed a whopping 4.1 goals in that situation but I do expect them to tighten things up tonight and Arizona is unlikely to turn in another high-scoring effort, noting it averages just 2.5 goals per game on the road this season. Finally, Anaheim has posted a 4-12 o/u record after losing two of its last three games this season with those contests totaling just 4.8 goals on average. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-04-21 | Maple Leafs v. Flames OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
NHL North Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Toronto and Calgary at 9:05 pm et on Sunday. The Leafs are coming off back-to-back low-scoring victories in Winnipeg to open this road trip but I expect a different story to unfold in Calgary on Sunday. Note that Toronto averages 3.1 goals per game on the road this season so the fact that it scored just four goals in regulation time in those two games in Winnipeg could be considered an anomaly. Here, they should find the going a little easier against a Flames squad that isn't getting good goaltending right now and allows 3.0 goals per game on home ice this season. Note that the 'over' has gone 16-6 when the Leafs come off a one-goal win over a division opponent over the last three seasons with those games averaging 6.8 total goals. The Leafs are averaging 3.7 goals per game when coming off consecutive 'under' results this season. Meanwhile, the Flames have seen the 'over' go 22-9 when playing at home revenging a loss against an opponent over the last three seasons with those contests averaging 7.3 total goals. Two of the last three meetings in this series in Calgary have gone 'over' the total including a 4-3 Leafs victory here back on January 26th. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
04-04-21 | Blue Jackets v. Panthers -165 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Florida over Columbus at 5:05 pm et on Sunday. The Blue Jackets are a mess right now, having lost six of their last seven games, and don't figure to get back in the win column against the streaking Panthers on Sunday afternoon. Florida has won five consecutive games and certainly wants to keep that streak intact before heading out on the road on its longest trip of the season (six games). Florida is 13-7 on home ice this season, where it averages 3.1 goals per game. Meanwhile, Columbus has gone 7-13 on the road, averaging a less than impressive 2.1 goals per contest. Note that the Blue Jackets average just 1.7 goals per game when playing on the road off consecutive losses this season. I don't feel they can keep up with a Panthers squad that averages 3.7 goals per game following a division win over the last two seasons, noting that Florida welcomed back Sasha Barkov and Patric Hornqvist last night with the pair chipping in two assists and seven combined shots on goal in Florida's 5-2 victory. Take Florida (10*). | |||||||
04-04-21 | Lakers v. Clippers OVER 215 | Top | 86-104 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
NBA on ABC TV Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between the Lakers and Clippers at 3:40 pm et on Sunday. The 'under' has cashed in each of the Lakers last five games and eight of their last nine overall. We've also seen the 'under' cash in the Clippers last two contests with a number of bodies in and out of the lineup. I believe we're set up for a higher-scoring affair on Sunday, however. Coming off rare consecutive losses, I certainly expect to see the Clippers rebound here after a couple of days off to reset. Note that they average 120.7 points per game when coming off a loss over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 229.3 points. The Lakers have seen the 'under' cash at a 32-16 clip after losing five or six of their last seven games ATS over the last three seasons, as is the case here, however, those contests have totaled an average of 221.8 points, north of the reasonably low total we're working with today. Los Angeles has some positive momentum here after scoring 115 points in a rout of Sacramento two nights ago. Bettors will likely be hesitant to back the 'over' here due to the notable absences on both teams, particularly the Lakers. That's just fine as it keeps the total in a very reasonable range. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
04-04-21 | Rangers v. Royals -166 | 7-3 | Loss | -166 | 4 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas City over Texas at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Royals yesterday and I won't hesitate to go right back to the well with them again on Sunday. As I noted in yesterday's analysis, the Rangers have been awful in the role of road underdog, now 5-23 in their last 28 opportunities, outscored by an average margin of 2.3 runs. Jordan Lyles doesn't figure to turn things around for them today, noting that he owns an awful 15-43 team record when priced as an underdog between +125 and +175 over the course of his career. The Royals have plated a whopping 25 runs through two games and while I'm not anticipating another offensive explosion on Sunday, I do expect Kansas City to do enough damage at the plate to secure a third straight victory. Take Kansas City (9*). | |||||||
04-04-21 | Cardinals v. Reds UNDER 9.5 | 1-12 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Cincinnati at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. We've seen two wild, high-scoring games between these two N.L. Central clubs to open the season but I believe Sunday's posted total will prove too high to keep that 'over' streak alive. Note that the Reds have averaged just 3.9 runs per game in 81 day games over the last 2+ seasons. They also average just 3.9 runs per game off a win over that same stretch. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 19-6 after the Cardinals are involved in a game that totals 15 runs or more over the last three seasons with those contests totaling just 7.2 runs on average. Keep in mind, the 'under' remains 15-12 in the last 27 meetings in this series. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-04-21 | Braves v. Phillies UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 48 m | Show |
N.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Philadelphia at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. The Braves have somewhat surprisingly dropped the first two games of this series, only generating two runs on an improbable Pablo Sandoval pinch-hit home run on Thursday. While Atlanta is loaded with talent up and down its order, I'm not sure it can just flip a switch and start hitting. Zach Eflin will aim to shut down the Braves again on Sunday and he's certainly capable of doing it having given up just four hits and four earned runs against them in 12 1/3 innings of work last season. I do have confidence in Braves sophomore starter Ian Anderson on Sunday afternoon. Lost in the fact that the Braves bats have been silent is that the Phillies haven't exactly been tearing the cover off the baseball either. Anderson gained plenty of big game experience in last year's postseason and should treat this as an equally important game with Atlanta off to an 0-2 start. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-03-21 | Thunder +11.5 v. Blazers | 85-133 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Saturday. We'll plug our nose and back the undermanned Thunder as they face the Blazers in Portland on Saturday night. Of course, Oklahoma City was routed by 37 points in Phoenix last night but that was against a Suns squad that is absolutely rolling right now. Here, the Thunder catch the Blazers playing their sixth game in the last 10 nights, in five different cities. The Blazers certainly looked like a tired team last night against Milwaukee, shooting 36.4% from the field while allowing the Bucks to shoot 54.4%. While Portland will certainly be eager to bounce back tonight, it's unlikely the Thunder will draw a great deal of motivation considering the Blazers already exacted revenge on the Thunder for an earlier-season home loss by winning by double-digits in Oklahoma City back on February 16th. The Blazers rarely blow anyone out here at home, where they've outscored the opposition by just 2.1 points per game this season. The Thunder check in 15-5 ATS when playing on the road off a double-digit loss over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.7 points in that situation. Meanwhile, Portland is a woeful 1-8 ATS at home after allowing 115 points or more in its last game this season, outscored by 7.9 points per game in that spot. Take Oklahoma City (10*). | |||||||
04-03-21 | Sharks v. Kings -117 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -117 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
NHL Rivalry Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles over San Jose at 10:05 pm et on Saturday. The Kings returned home and couldn't keep the positive momentum building in a 3-0 loss to the Sharks last night. I do look for them to bounce back on Saturday, however. Note that Los Angeles has gone 9-3 off a loss by three goals or more against a division opponent over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by 1.4 goals per game in that situation. Meanwhile, the Sharks have given up 3.5 goals per game when coming off consecutive wins over the last two seasons, outscored by 0.4 goals on average in that spot. Keep in mind, last night's shutout performance was an anomaly for San Jose on the road this season, where it has given up 3.3 goals per game. By contrast, the Kings are allowing just 2.7 goals per game on home ice, and allow only 2.3 goals per game when at home revenging a loss against an opponent by two or more goals over the last two seasons. The Sharks are 4-1 against the Kings this season but I look for Los Angeles to get one back tonight. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
04-03-21 | UCLA v. Gonzaga OVER 145.5 | 90-93 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between UCLA and Gonzaga at 8:35 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams delivered 'under' results in the Elite Eight, albeit in very different ways with UCLA involved in an extremely low-scoring victory over defensive-minded Michigan and Gonzaga putting up 85 points in a rout of USC. Here, I don't believe UCLA will be able to do anything to throw the Bulldogs off their game offensively, noting that the Bruins entered the tournament ranked a miserable 299th in the nation in steals per possession and 214th in block percentage. They also checked in ranked 201st in opponents effective field goal percentage and 156th in opponents floor percentage. I don't need to tell you that's just not going to cut it against a Gonzaga squad that ranks tops in the nation in both offensive efficiency and floor percentage. The Bruins have been hot and cold offensively in this tournament but might have a sliver of hope here with the Zags holding USC to 38.7% shooting last time out. That may seem contradictory, but it's worth noting that the Bulldogs haven't held consecutive opponents under 40% shooting since January 16th and 23rd against St. Mary's-CA and Pacific. The Bruins should at least get some good looks at the basket in this one, noting that Gonzaga ranks well north of 200th in terms of block percentage, and ranks worse than UCLA's last opponent, Michigan, in terms of opponents floor percentage, opponents effective field goal percentage and opponents non-blocked two-point percentage. This will by no means be a walk in the park for the Bruins offensively, but I think they can do enough to help get this one 'over' the reasonable total. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
04-03-21 | Mavs v. Wizards +6 | Top | 109-87 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Dallas at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. I thankfully laid off my potential fade of the Mavs last night as they ended up defeating the Knicks by double-digits in New York. Here, I will go to the well with a fade of streaking Dallas, however, as it might struggle to find the proper level of motivation to draw on in the final installment of what has been a successful five-game road trip. The Mavs lone loss on the trip came one week ago tonight in New Orleans in a game where they sat both Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis. While I certainly expect both to play here, it wouldn't be outside the realm of possibility that Luka at the very least could be given another night off in this back-to-back situation - but we'll operate under the assumption that he does play. The Wizards didn't show up to play in Thursday's 29-point blowout loss in Detroit. You really do have to pick your spots wisely when it comes to the Wiz, but when they do show up motivated, you can generally count on a competitive game and I do expect them to step up here at home against the Mavs. Note that as poorly as things have gone in general for the Wiz in recent years, they've actually been outscored by just 0.2 points per game in their last 96 games played here at home. Meanwhile, the Mavs have outscored opponents by an average margin of just 1.3 points when coming off a win over the last two seasons and here they check in off three consecutive victories. Washington is in a favorable situation here as it has gone 19-9 ATS after losing consecutive games ATS over the last two seasons, actually outscoring the opposition by 0.3 points per game in that spot. Take Washington (10*). | |||||||
04-03-21 | Houston v. Baylor UNDER 135 | Top | 59-78 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 50 m | Show |
NCAA Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Baylor at 5:15 pm et on Saturday. This has the makings of a low-scoring battle between the Cougars and Bears on Saturday evening. Houston entered the tournament ranked number one in the country in opponents effective field goal percentage and it hasn't disappointed, holding its four opponents to 56, 60, 46 and 61 points. While this will be Houston's toughest test in the tournament to date, I believe it will be up for the challenge. Baylor put up 81 points in its Elite Eight win over Arkansas but that was the first time it broke the 80-point mark since back on March 7th against Texas Tech. I suspect the Bears might have trouble running their offense against a Houston defense that entered the tournament ranked ninth in the nation in block percentage and 16th in steals per possession. I also think Houston's slow pace, ranking around 300th in the country in possessions per game could cause the Bears some problems here. Where I don't expect Baylor to have any trouble is slowing a Houston offense that has topped out at 67 points since opening the tournament with a rout of an overmatched Cleveland State squad. Keep in mind, the Cougars Elite Eight victory over Oregon State got to just 128 points but featured 12 points in the game's final minute as the Beavers did everything they could to extend proceedings. I'm not convinced this game will go right down to the wire, and that should help our cause with the 'under'. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-03-21 | Braves -107 v. Phillies | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
MLB Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta over Philadelphia at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. It seems like the majority of bettors were all over the Braves in their season-opener against the Phillies and it didn't go particularly well as Atlanta fell behind early and ultimately fell in walk-off fashion in the 10th inning. I do look for the Braves to bounce back on Saturday as they send Charlie Morton to the hill against Zack Wheeler. Note that Atlanta is a perfect 9-0 the last nine times it has come off a one-run loss, outscoring opponents by 2.5 runs per game in that situation. Better still, the Braves are 19-3 the last 22 times they've come off a game where they were held to two runs or less, outscoring opponents by 3.8 runs on average in that spot. While Charlie Morton's career numbers against the Phillies are ugly, he has only faced them twice since 2011 and has been reasonably effective in those two starts, giving up just three earned runs while posting a 17:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 12 innings of work. He posted a perfect 2-0 team record in those two starts. Meanwhile, Zack Wheeler does own a career winning record against Atlanta (6-5) but has generally labored through those starts, recording a 3.70 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. He has posted a 2-4 team record in six starts against the Braves over the last two seasons, recording more than four strikeouts in only two of those six outings. The Braves were forced to use five bullpen arms in Thursday's opener but that's not a major concern following the off day on Friday. Take Atlanta (10*). | |||||||
04-03-21 | Blackhawks v. Predators OVER 5.5 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 5 m | Show |
NHL Central Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Nashville at 3:05 pm et on Saturday. We saw two low-scoring games between these two teams in Chicago last weekend but I look for a different story to unfold as the scene shifts to Nashville on Saturday afternoon. The Blackhawks fell just short against Carolina on Thursday (we won with the Hurricanes), scoring three goals in the process. They now fall into a situation that has seen the 'over' cash at a 33-17 clip when they play on the road following a loss over the last three seasons, with those games averaging 6.8 total goals. Meanwhile, the Preds haven't posted an 'over' result since March 25th. Note that the 'over' is 8-1 when Nashville comes off at least three consecutive 'under' results over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling 7.3 goals on average. I should also point out that the Blackhawks average 4.1 goals per game when seeking revenge for three straight losses against an opponent, as is the case here, over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 6.6 goals. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
04-03-21 | Rangers v. Royals -150 | 4-11 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas City over Texas at 2:10 pm et on Saturday. The Royals fell behind early but rallied to win a wild one by a 14-10 score on Opening Day. I look for them to make it two in a row over the Rangers on Saturday. Note that Texas is a miserable 5-22 in its last 27 games as a road underdog, outscored by 2.2 runs per game on average. Worse still, the Rangers are 2-15 when priced between +125 and +175, as is the case at the time of writing today, outscored by an average of 2.6 runs in that spot. Kohei Arihara will be making his big league debut for the Rangers on Saturday afternoon. He held up ok in four exhibition starts during Spring Training but was certainly nothing special, allowing 14 hits and two home runs while striking out only 11 in 14 innings of work. The Royals pose a stiff challenge with an improved lineup as evidenced by Thursday's offensive explosion. Kansas City starter Mike Minor shouldn't count on that same level of offensive support here, but he shouldn't need it. Minor had an up and down 2020 campaign but is a quality veteran starter that should give his team 5-6 solid innings of work on Saturday. During Spring Training, Minor settled down to work five effective innings against the Rockies in his final exhibition start, allowing just one earned run while striking out an exhibition-high six batters. Take Kansas City (10*). | |||||||
04-03-21 | Penguins v. Bruins UNDER 5.5 | 5-7 | Loss | -118 | 15 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Boston at 1:05 pm et on Saturday. These two teams were involved in a low-scoring affair in the front half of this two-game set in Boston on Thursday night and I'm anticipating more of the same on Saturday afternoon. Note that Bruins home games are averaging just 5.1 total goals this season, with the 'under' cashing at a 10-5 clip. The 'under' has gone 12-4 with the Penguins allowing just 2.1 goals per game when playing on the road off a win by two goals ore more over a division opponent in their last game over the lats two seasons, with those games totaling an average of just 4.9 goals. On the flip side, the Bruins have given up just 1.8 goals per game when playing at home after scoring just one goal in their previous contest over the last three seasons. The 'under' has cashed in five of the last six meetings in this series played here in Boston and all five previous matchups this season. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-02-21 | Diamondbacks v. Padres UNDER 8.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and San Diego at 10:10 pm et on Friday. We saw a wild, high-scoring game between these two teams in yesterday's season-opener as the Padres rallied from a big deficit to defeat the D'Backs 8-7. I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair on Friday, however. Merrill Kelly will get the start for Arizona. He had a promising 2020 season cut short due to injury last year but all indications are that his velocity is back where it needs to be following thoracic outlet surgery last August. In two starts against the Padres last season, Kelly allowed just one earned run on nine hits over 12 2/3 innings of work. Both of those games stayed 'under' the total with just five and six runs. Kelly was worked at least six innings in five of seven career starts against San Diego. Padres prized offseason acquisition Blake Snell will get his first start with his new team on Friday. He looked good in Spring Training, working his way up to five innings pitched in his final exhibition start, allowing just one hit and no earned runs while striking out six and walking only one in that outing. All told, he allowed just five hits over 14 1/3 scoreless frames in March. I'm actually higher on the D'Backs offense than some but after plating seven runs yesterday, I look for some regression here tonight. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-02-21 | Sharks v. Kings UNDER 5.5 | 3-0 | Win | 108 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Jose and Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Friday. We got burned by two goals in the final 12 seconds to spoil our 'under' play in the Sharks most recent game - a 4-2 victory over the Wild on Wednesday night. Undeterred, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as San Jose heads out on the road to face the rival Kings. Los Angeles is coming off a somewhat surprising 4-2 win in Las Vegas on Wednesday. That sets up the Kings rather poorly here, however, noting that they average just 2.2 goals per game when coming off a win over a division opponent over the last three seasons. The 'under' has cashed at a 25-11 clip in that situation, with an average total of just 5.0 goals scored. Better still, the 'under' is 12-2 when the Kings play at home off a win by two goals or more over a division opponent over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an average of just 3.7 total goals. Also note that the 'under' is 9-2 when Los Angeles plays with revenge for a road loss against an opponent by two goals or more over the last two seasons with those contests totaling just 4.5 goals on average. San Jose averages only 2.2 goals per game following an 'over' result over the last two seasons. Finally, we've seen the 'under' cash in six of 10 meetings between these two teams over the last three seasons. Take the under (9*). | |||||||
04-02-21 | Astros v. A's -135 | Top | 9-5 | Loss | -135 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
A.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on Oakland over Houston at 9:40 pm et on Friday. The Astros drummed the A's 8-1 in last night's season-opener but I expect a different story to unfold on Friday night in Oakland. Cristian Javier will take the ball for Houston. He got in limited work during a Covid-shortened 2020 season, facing the A's twice. He didn't last beyond the fifth inning in either of those starts, allowing seven earned runs (and four home run) in just eight innings of work. Javier worked just three scoreless innings during Spring Training, allowing one hit and posting a 2:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Jesus Luzardo will counter for Oakland. The A's went a perfect 3-0 in his three starts against the Astros last season. He was very effective in two regular season starts against Houston, allowing just four earned runs over 12 2/3 innings. However, he got lit up in a postseason start versus the Astros, chased from that game after just 4 1/3 innings. I'm willing to chalk up that poor performance to nerves and certainly anticipate a better performance from him here as he looks to help the A's earn their first win of the season. Last night's blowout loss should be easy for the A's to flush from their memory as there are going to be nights like that over the course of a long 162-game season. Take Oakland (10*). |
Service | Profit |
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Ricky Tran | $756 |
ProSportsPicks | $632 |
Joseph D'Amico | $510 |
Joey Tron | $450 |
Tom Macrina | $399 |
Nick Parsons | $344 |
Sean Murphy | $306 |
Jack Jones | $303 |
William Burns | $233 |
Dan Kaiser | $220 |