Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11-01-23 | Wizards +8.5 v. Hawks | 121-130 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington plus the points over Atlanta at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Wizards got drilled by 19 points last time out but that was against an elite Celtics squad that has come storming out of the gates this season. Here, I think Washington is catching Atlanta in a prime letdown spot with the Hawks fresh off consecutive double-digit wins to even their record at 2-2 on the season. Atlanta checks in a woeful 12-27 ATS in its last 39 games following an ATS win and 6-19 ATS in its last 25 contests after a home victory. The Hawks are also just 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games following an outright underdog victory, which is the situation here after their home win over the Timberwolves as 2.5-point underdogs. Take Washington (8*). | |||||||
11-01-23 | Bucks v. Raptors UNDER 224.5 | 111-130 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Toronto at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Bucks are coming off a high-scoring game against the Heat on Monday. I expect a different story to unfold as they head to Toronto on Wednesday. The Raptors have lost three games in a row but there issues have been at the offensive end of the floor. They've actually seen the 'under' go 3-1 in their four games this season and they've held the opposition to 94, 104, 114 and 99 points. The Bucks have gotten off 82, 86 and 87 field goal attempts through three games so they're not exactly playing at a frenetic pace. They shot the lights out against the Heat on Monday but will be hard-pressed to do so on the road against the Raptors here. Toronto has allowed just one of four opponents to knock down more than 38 field goals this season. Note that the 'under' is 18-8 in the Bucks last 26 road games when coming off an ATS victory. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
10-31-23 | Spurs v. Suns OVER 226.5 | 115-114 | Win | 100 | 16 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Antonio and Phoenix at 10 pm et on Tuesday. The betting market continues to have a tough time figuring out the Suns as they continue on without Devin Booker and Bradley Beal. Kevin Durant got plenty of help from his supporting cast in Phoenix's 126-104 rout of Utah on Saturday. The Suns draw another mouth-watering matchup on Tuesday as they host the Spurs, who just got dominated by a 123-83 score against the Clippers in Los Angeles on Sunday. There are going to be plenty of growing pains for this San Antonio squad. The Spurs have employed a matador-like defense through three games, allowing 47, 52 and 47 made field goals (to their credit the middle game was aided by overtime). I do think we see a bounce-back of sorts from the Spurs offense on Tuesday after they connected on just 30-of-80 field goal attempts on Sunday. Phoenix has held all three of its opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals this season yet has still given up 100 or more points in every contest. Note that the 'over' is a long-term 136-102 with the Spurs playing on the road after scoring 90 points or less in their previous game. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
10-31-23 | Rangers v. Diamondbacks -105 | Top | 11-7 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
World Series Game of the Year. My selection is on Arizona over Texas at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Rangers gained the upper hand in this series last night as they jumped all over Diamondbacks rookie starter Brandon Pfaadt early and cruised to a 3-1 victory. I look for Arizona to answer back on Tuesday in what sets up as a battle of the bullpens. Andrew Heaney will get the start for the visiting Rangers but isn't likely to be given a long leash. He has pitched just 2 1/3 innings in the last two rounds of the playoffs, allowing six of the 13 batters he has faced to reach base. On the season, Heaney owns a very pedestrian 4.66 FIP and 1.38 WHIP. Reliever Joe Mantiply will counter for Arizona. Again, we can expect to see only an inning or so from the left-hander. I liked the way the D'Backs managed their bullpen in last night's defeat as they kept key arms like Ryan Thompson, Kevin Ginkel and closer Paul Sewald fresh for Game 4 on Tuesday. As expected in a tight game playing with the lead, the Rangers used both setup man Aroldis Chapman and closer Jose Leclerc. The Rangers already accomplished their goal of at least getting this series back to Texas for a Game 6. Now the pressure is squarely on Arizona as it can ill afford to go down 3-1 against a team as good as Texas. The D'Backs have proven resilient throughout these playoffs and I look for them to answer the bell once again on Tuesday. Take Arizona (10*). | |||||||
10-31-23 | Knicks v. Cavs OVER 214.5 | 109-91 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Cleveland at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. The 'under' cashed in all five games in last April's playoff series between these two teams. The Knicks also enter this contest off an incredibly low-scoring game against New Orleans on Saturday. With that being said, the contrarian in me believes we're in for a higher-scoring game than expected on Tuesday. Cleveland has been playing at a fast pace, hoisting up 94, 92 and 99 field goal attempts through three games. While Darius Garland remains sidelined, there's a chance Donovan Mitchell could return on Tuesday after sitting out the second of back-to-backs on Saturday. The Knicks have also played at a reasonably quick tempo, getting off 90 or more field goal attempts in all three games. Note that the 'over' is 30-18 in the Knicks last 48 games as a favorite including 1-0 this season. The 'over' also cashed in both regular season meetings between these two teams in 22-23. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
10-30-23 | Warriors v. Pelicans -3 | 130-102 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Golden State at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The Warriors picked up their second straight victory last night in Houston but now face a difficult three-in-four spot on the road against the revenge-minded Pelicans (Golden State took the last two meetings last season). New Orleans was idle on Sunday after improving to 2-0 on the season with a nine-point win over the Knicks on Saturday. Note that the Warriors had a tough enough time just getting shots off against the Rockets last night, attempting only 81 field goals (and making just 35 of them) in the victory. The Pelicans have allowed each of their first two opponents to hoist up 90 or more field goal attempts but have defended well, allowing just 38 and 33 makes in those two contests. On the flip side, New Orleans has made good on exactly 40 field goals in consecutive games despite playing at a reasonably slow pace. Here, we'll note that Golden State checks in a woeful 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games as a road underdog of six points or less, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 8.9 points in that situation. Take New Orleans (8*). | |||||||
10-30-23 | Rangers -104 v. Diamondbacks | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 23 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas over Arizona at 8:05 pm et on Monday. It wasn't all that surprising to see the Diamondbacks rebound following their disheartening loss in Game 1 of this series. After all, the Snakes have been incredibly resilient throughout these playoffs and didn't want to go down the path of needing to rally from an 0-2 series deficit again the way they did last round. Here, I think it's advantage Rangers as the series shifts to Arizona for Game 3. Veteran Max Scherzer hasn't pitched particularly well in his two playoff starts this year, but he was certainly 'good enough' in the fifth and deciding game against the Astros last round as Texas rolled to an 11-4 victory. Scherzer has absolutely manhandled the current Diamondbacks roster, holding them to a collective 16-for-103 (.155) with 39 strikeouts and eight walks. Meanwhile, D'Backs rookie Brandon Pfaadt has impressed in his four playoff starts but he faces a tall task here as the current Rangers roster torched the right-hander in a regular season matchup, hitting a combined 9-for-19 (.474) with four home runs and only three strikeouts. Take Texas (8*). | |||||||
10-30-23 | Rangers v. Jets UNDER 5.5 | 3-2 | Win | 102 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Winnipeg at 7:35 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are coming off relatively high-scoring overtime affairs on Saturday with the Rangers prevailing in Vancouver and the Jets losing in Montreal. This is a low total by today's NHL standards but I don't believe it will prove low enough. Note that each of the last five matchups in this series has produced five goals or less. The Jets got off to a brutal start defensively this season allowing 19 goals in their first four games but they've since turned it around, yielding just just eight goals in regulation time over their last four contests. Meanwhile, the Rangers have given up just five goals in the first four games of their current road trip and have held an incredible five of eight opponents to a single goal or less this season. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
10-29-23 | Spurs v. Clippers -8.5 | 83-123 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over San Antonio at 9:10 pm et on Sunday. The Spurs picked up their first win of the Victor Wembanyama era by way of overtime at home against the Rockets two nights ago, but they needed overtime to get it. San Antonio has played about as well as you could expect offensively, knocking down exactly 46 field goals in each contest. The problem is, the Spurs also allowed a whopping 47 and 52 made field goals in those two games and now they hit the road for the first time to face a Clippers squad that will be in a foul mood after dropping a two-point decision as a road favorite in Utah on Friday. The Clippers have actually been about as efficient as any team in the league offensively through two games, shooting better than 52% from the field. They figure to go off here, noting they scored 113, 119, 131 and 138 points in four matchups in this series last season. The Spurs check in a woeful 14-27 ATS in their last 41 games as a road underdog. Take Los Angeles (8*). | |||||||
10-29-23 | Sharks +190 v. Capitals | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Jose over Washington at 5:05 pm et on Sunday. The Sharks have yet to win a game this season. They win on Sunday as they head to Washington to face the suddenly-surging Capitals. Note that Washington checks in 12-18 when playing at home after scoring three goals or more in consecutive games over the last three seasons. They're also 9-20 when playing at home after securing two wins in their last three games over the same stretch, outscored by 0.5 goals on average in that situation. The road team has gone a perfect 4-0 in the last four meetings in this series. Take San Jose (8*). | |||||||
10-29-23 | Bengals v. 49ers OVER 43.5 | 31-17 | Win | 100 | 20 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and San Francisco at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I really like the way the Bengals set up in this game as they look to avenge a 2021 home loss against the 49ers. With that being said, I have plenty of respect for the oddsmakers and believe the 49ers are favored by nearly a touchdown for a reason on Sunday afternoon. So that leaves us well-positioned for points on the board as the Bengals check in healthy off their bye week and the 49ers appear in better shape back at home with QB Brock Purdy having shaken off the possible concussion he suffered on Monday against Minnesota. Speaking of injuries, 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey looked no worse for wear on Monday and he'll be up against a Cincinnati defense that has been Charmin-soft against the run this season, yielding just shy of 5.0 yards per rush. San Francisco would be well-suited to employ a quick-strike offensive gameplan with Trent Williams likely to sit once again. Getting the ball out quickly will be paramount for Brock Purdy but keep in mind, the Bengals defense is loaded with ball hawks in the secondary, capable of leading to splash plays that either put points directly on the scoreboard or lead to short fields for a very capable Cincinnati offense. I think this is a game Bengals QB Joe Burrow has had circled. As I mentioned, the last time these two teams met in 2021, Burrow threw for 348 yards and two touchdowns in a 26-23 home loss against a Jimmy Garoppolo-led 49ers squad. Of note, Deebo Samuel ran the football eight times for 37 yards and a touchdown in that game but was rendered ineffective in the passing game. Samuel won't play on Sunday but McCaffrey can certainly fill the void out of the backfield. The duo of George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk went off for 19 (yes 19!) catches for 213 yards and two touchdowns in that 2021 meeting. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
10-29-23 | Browns v. Seahawks -3.5 | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 18 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle minus the points over Cleveland at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. Really tough spot for the Browns here after they 'left it all on the field' in last week's wild, high-scoring win in Indianapolis. The Seahawks had what amounted to a scrimmage at home against the Cardinals and should be no worse for wear entering this game. In fact, Seattle is expected to be stronger with WR D.K. Metcalf likely to return. The Browns lost key backup RB Jerome Ford last week so it's the Kareem Hunt show this Sunday. That's not to mention the fact that QB P.J. Walker with his pop-gun arm will remain under center against a ball-hawking Seahawks secondary. Take Seattle (8*). | |||||||
10-29-23 | Saints v. Colts UNDER 43.5 | Top | 38-27 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 41 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring 'over' results last week and that's led to this total being bet up a few points since opening. I believe it's a move in the wrong direction. The Saints have aired it out 50+ times in consecutive weeks. That's not how this offense is built as head coach Dennis Allen and QB Derek Carr are as risk-averse as it gets. I do expect the Saints to find some success in this game but road teams haven't been running away and hiding on the Colts here in Indianapolis this season with their four home games all decided by 10 points or less. Indy put up a whopping 38 points against Cleveland last Sunday but I'm not counting on a repeat performance. After turning the football over four times in each of the last two weeks, there's reason to believe we'll see Shane Steichen's Colts scale back their offensive gameplan for QB Garnder Minshew against an elite Saints defense on Sunday. Note that the 'under' is 4-1 in the last five meetings in this series. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-29-23 | Rams v. Cowboys -6.5 | 20-43 | Win | 100 | 15 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Los Angeles at 1 pm et on Sunday. I think the Cowboys are in a smash spot here at home on Sunday as they host a Rams squad that feels it was wronged in last week's home defeat against the Steelers. Dallas checks in off its bye week following an uplifting 20-17 road win over the Chargers. While the Cowboys are dealing with some key injuries on the defensive side of the football, I'm confident we'll see their offense feast on Sunday. One of the Rams bright spots this season was RB Kyren Williams but he's now sidelined. While the Los Angeles aerial attack does boast a terrific 1-2 punch in Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, I'm willing to bet on the Cowboys secondary (and pass rush) to neutralize the Rams offense this week. Dallas allowed a season-high 22 pass completions in its most recent game against the Chargers but still gave up only 219 passing yards. It's all systems go for the Cowboys offense this Sunday and the Rams defense is no longer a unit to fear. Last year, Dallas took this same matchup by 12 points with Cooper Rush at quarterback. While the Cowboys are in a look-ahead spot with the Eagles on deck, that's not an angle I generally put much stock in. Take Dallas (8*). | |||||||
10-29-23 | Texans v. Panthers +3.5 | 13-15 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Carolina plus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Panthers bye week couldn't have come at a better time as they were 0-6 to start the season and have had a chance to regroup ahead of this matchup with the upstart Texans. I don't think there's much at all separating these two teams but here we are catching north of a field goal with the Panthers, at home no less. Houston has reeled off three wins in its last four games, going a perfect 4-0 ATS along the way. Like the Panthers, the Texans are also coming off their bye week but the difference is it came at a bad time as they were rolling heading in. It's not often you see a team deliver consecutive ATS wins in games where it scored 20 points or less but that's the case with Houston entering this contest. Carolina has faced a brutal schedule since Week 3, travelling to Seattle before hosting winless (at the time) Minnesota and then hitting the road to face the Lions and Dolphins, two teams that are likely to reach the postseason. Noting that Houston is a long-term 21-37 ATS off an outright underdog victory, look for Carolina to prevail on Sunday. Take Carolina (8*). | |||||||
10-28-23 | UNLV +9.5 v. Fresno State | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 29 h 18 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on UNLV plus the points over Fresno State at 10:30 pm et on Saturday. UNLV has a good thing going this season even if few are paying much attention. The Runnin' Rebels have already gained Bowl eligibility with their sixth win of the season coming last week against Colorado State. They've got their sights set on much bigger goals, however, as they go after an elusive Mountain West Conference title. Taking down Fresno State, which checks in with an identical 6-1 record this season, would certainly be a step in the right direction. Note that while the Rebels have lost five straight matchups in this series, they've been right there in each of the last two seasons, losing by just eight and seven points. This year's UNLV squad is arguably much better than both of those teams, yet it isn't being offered much respect in the betting marketplace. Fresno State has beaten up on some awful teams this season and also lost a game as a five-point favorite on the road against Wyoming. The Bulldogs marquee win came back in Week 1 on the road against Purdue as QB Mikey Keene balled out with nearly 400 yards passing and four touchdowns. His status remains up in the air for this game as he continues to recover from injury. Backup Logan Fife has performed admirably in his absence but he's not the same playmaker Keene is. Regardless who is under center for Fresno State on Saturday, I believe UNLV has the personnel to keep pace. Put the Bulldogs on 'upset alert' as we grab all the points we can get with the Rebels. Take UNLV (10*). | |||||||
10-28-23 | Bulls -1 v. Pistons | 102-118 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago minus the points over Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. The Raptors let the Bulls off the hook last night as Chicago blew a big second quarter lead, trailed by a wide margin late before tying it up on a parade to the free throw line and ultimately winning by a single point in overtime. Off that shaky performance, I look for a much sharper four quarter effort from the Bulls on Saturday in Detroit. The Pistons won outright as 4.5-point underdogs in Charlotte last night - their second straight ATS win to open the campaign. Detroit's first two opponents struggled to knock down their shots but I'm willing to chalk that up more as early season rust rather than the Pistons defensive prowess. Chicago has owned this series in Motown in recent years and I look for it to continue its dominance here. Take Chicago (8*). | |||||||
10-28-23 | Oregon v. Utah UNDER 47.5 | Top | 35-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 46 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Oregon and Utah at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring 'over' results last week - in the last two weeks, in fact. I expect a reversal of course here on Saturday as the Ducks travel to face the Utes. Oregon has looked downright unstoppable at times this season but Washington State actually managed to lay out a pretty good blueprint for slowing the Ducks high-powered offense for the better part of the first half last week. I expect the Utes, who own one of the best defenses in the nation, to turn in a strong performance here at home, where they've allowed just 39 points in four games this season. Note that last year the Utes travelled to Autzen Stadium and limited the Ducks to just 20 points in a three-point defeat. On the flip side, the Ducks defense doesn't get nearly the credit or attention it deserves, largely due to the team's electric offense. Favored on the road, there's nothing for Oregon's defense to fear with the Utes still dealing with inconsistent play at the quarterback position. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-28-23 | Georgia -14 v. Florida | 43-20 | Win | 100 | 22 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on Georgia minus the points over Florida at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. The injury to Georgia TE Brock Bowers seems to have a lot of bettors a little spooked as we head into this pre-Halloween rivalry tilt between the Bulldogs and Gators in Jacksonville. The Bulldogs have been a massive disappointment from a betting perspective this season, going 1-5-1 ATS to date but I look for them to shake loose for a convincing victory on Saturday. Florida is coming off back-to-back SU and ATS wins - those were much-needed following a modest 3-2 start to the campaign. But the Gators bye week probably came at the worst time and now they need to get rolling from a standing start against arguably the best team in the country. Note that Georgia has dominated Florida lately, taking the last three meetings by 16, 27 and 22 points. I don't think there's any reason to believe this edition of the Gators can keep things any closer, even if the oddsmakers anticipate otherwise. Note that only two of Georgia's seven games to date have been decided by fewer than 17 points. Take Georgia (8*). | |||||||
10-27-23 | Clippers v. Jazz +3.5 | Top | 118-120 | Win | 100 | 25 h 32 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Utah plus the points over Los Angeles at 9:40 pm et on Friday. I really like the way this play sets up as bettors overreact to season-opening results from these two teams. The Clippers turned in a near-flawless performance but that was at home against what projects to be one of the league's worst teams in the Blazers. Meanwhile, the Jazz dropped a lopsided decision at home but that was against one of the league's true up-and-coming teams in the Kings. I look for the script to flip on Friday night, noting that Utah is a long-term 42-14 straight-up at home against Los Angeles including four straight wins going back to the start of the 2021-22 season. This is one of those tough one-game road trips for the Clippers, in altitude no less, before they return home for winnable games against the Spurs and Magic on Sunday and Tuesday. Should the Jazz fall again here, they'll be starting at a very tough start with a two-game trip to Phoenix and Denver on deck. Take Utah (10*). | |||||||
10-27-23 | Raptors v. Bulls -2 | 103-104 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago minus the points over Toronto at 8:10 pm et on Friday. I like the bounce-back spot for the Bulls on Friday as they look to split their season-opening two-game homestand after dropping their first game by 20 points against Oklahoma City. The Thunder quite simply shot the lights out in that game. Chicago actually held Oklahoma City to only 82 field goal attempts but it made good on 45 of them. If the Bulls can limit the pace again here they should be in good shape, noting the Raptors knocked down just 36-of-90 field goal attempts in their three-point win over Minnesota on Wednesday. In that contest, the Raptors allowed the Timberwolves to hoist up a whopping 101 FG attempts. Needless to say, Minnesota didn't make the most of its opportunities, connecting on only 34. The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series with the Bulls being the lone team to grab the cash on the road (in the most recent matchup between these teams last April) over that stretch. Here, we'll note that Chicago is 26-14 ATS when playing consecutive home games over the last two seasons and 35-19 ATS in the role of home favorite over the last three seasons. Toronto is a woeful 10-24 ATS after holding its previous opponent to 100 points or less over the last three seasons. Take Chicago (8*). | |||||||
10-27-23 | Wild +113 v. Capitals | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The Wild dropped an ugly 6-2 decision in Philadelphia last night but I look for them to bounce back as they make the short trip to Washington to face the Capitals on Friday. The Caps should be a welcome sight at the other end of the rink given the Wild have gone a perfect 4-0 against them over the last two seasons and have come away victorious in three straight trips to the Nation's Capital. Washington pulled off a stunning 6-4 victory over the Devils two nights ago, successfully rallying with three unanswered goals in the third period after blowing a 3-0 lead in the second. That puts the Caps in a poor situation here as they're just 2-9 in their last 11 games following a road win by two goals or more and 1-8 in their last nine contests after scoring six goals or more in their previous game. Take Minnesota (8*). | |||||||
10-26-23 | Suns v. Lakers OVER 229 | Top | 95-100 | Loss | -109 | 26 h 8 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams saw their respective season openers stay 'under' the total but I expect a different story to unfold as the Suns and Lakers match up in Los Angeles on Thursday. The Suns actually allowed Golden State to get off a whopping 101 field goal attempts on Tuesday but the Warriors couldn't make the most of their opportunities, knocking down only 36 of those attempts in a four-point loss. Meanwhile, Phoenix played with pace (95 field goal attempts) and shot reasonably well (42 made field goals), even with key offseason acquisition Bradley Beal sidelined (he's questionable to play on Thursday as well). The Lakers limited Denver to just 91 FG attempts on Tuesday but the Nuggets had little trouble against L.A.'s sieve-like defense, connecting on 48 of those shot attempts. I did come away impressed with the Lakers ability to at least match the Nuggets tempo (91 FG attempts). They simply had an off night shooting - something I expect them to rectify in their home-opener on Thursday. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 17-5 with the Suns coming off a victory over a division opponent over the last three seasons, resulting in an average total of 233.5 points in that situation. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-26-23 | Syracuse +3 v. Virginia Tech | 10-38 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Syracuse plus the points over Virginia Tech at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. The Orange have gone into a tailspin since their 4-0 start, dropping each of their last three games. Of course, they've run the gauntlet lately going up against Clemson, North Carolina and Florida State and won't get any sort of a breather travelling to Blacksburg to face the Hokies on Thursday. I do like their chances of rebounding here, however, with many of their key parts still on board from the 2021 team that prevailed by a 41-36 score in Blacksburg almost two years to the day. If there was one positive for Syracuse to take away from its ugly 41-3 rout at the hands of Florida State last time out it was that it kept Seminoles QB Jordan Travis' running under wraps. That at least gave the Orange a good sense of the speed they'll be facing at quarterback this week in the form of Hokies dual-threat QB Kyron Drones. Virginia Tech is coming off a 30-13 win over Wake Forest - a game in which Drones threw for over 300 yards. That's certainly not his game, noting that it was the first time this season he threw for more than 228 yards. If Drones tries to attack the Orange too often through the air in this one he's likely to be punished for any mistakes by the outstanding DB duo of Alijah Clark and Justin Barron who have inexplicably produced just two interceptions so far this season. Syracuse QB Garrett Shrader has been sacked a whopping nine times during the team's current three-game losing streak. I do think the extra week of practice should work in his favor here as the Orange offensive line certainly had some issues that needed to be worked out. I would anticipate the Orange getting Shrader on the move more than we've seen in recent weeks after he got bogged down by tough North Carolina and Florida State defenses over the last couple of games. The Hokies defensive front poses a difficult challenge as well but at least Shrader has played (and succeeded) in this environment before - he threw for 236 yards and two touchdowns and ran for 174 yards and three scores in that 2021 matchup on this field. Take Syracuse (8*). | |||||||
10-26-23 | Avalanche v. Penguins +123 | 0-4 | Win | 123 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh over Colorado at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Penguins let the Stars off the hook on Tuesday, outshooting them 18-9 in the first period but only managing to find the back of the net once before Dallas responded with four unanswered goals in the second and third periods. That marked Pittsburgh's third straight loss following a 2-1 start. I look for the Pens to bounce back on Thursday as they host the undefeated Avalanche. Keep in mind, Pittsburgh did take both matchups in this series last season, outscoring Colorado by a combined 7-3 score. While the Avs continue to pile up victories, they've proven vulnerable at the back-end lately, allowing eight goals over their last two games. Note that they're 0-7 after allowing four goals or more in consecutive games over the last two seasons, outscored by 2.4 goals on average in that situation. Also note that Colorado has averaged just 3.1 goals per game when playing on the road after scoring five or more goals in its previous game (185-game sample size). I'm not convinced that will be enough on Thursday as I like the bounce-back spot for the Pens as they continue their four-game homestand. Take Pittsburgh (8*). | |||||||
10-25-23 | UTEP v. Sam Houston State OVER 36.5 | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between UTEP and Sam Houston State at 8 pm et on Wednesday. I think UTEP 'under' bettors have been lulled into a false sense of security after they reeled off three consecutive 'under' results. Tonight's opponent, winless Sam Houston State, has found a little something offensively in recent games with QB Keegan Shoemaker showing signs of progress, throwing for six touchdowns and just two interceptions while running for 124 yards over the last three games. The Bearkats haven't stuck with the run at all this season but figure to feast on a UTEP defense that has hemorrhaged 5.1 yards per rush this season if they so choose. Sam Houston State's defense hasn't lived up to expectations this season, part of that has been due to simply being on the field way too much thanks to an inefficient offense. Miners RB Deion Hankins has gotten better as the season has gone on, rushing for 265 yards over the last three games and I expect him to be the focal point of the offense here as well. While run plays are generally an 'under' bettors best friend, I think there's a good chance UTEP runs all over the Sam Houston State defense on Wednesday. Sitting at 0-7 on the campaign, the Bearkats certainly haven't learned how to 'take the air out of the football' playing with a lead at this level (it's their first year in FBS) and I feel that lends itself to a back-and-forth affair that creeps 'over' the low posted total on Wednesday. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
10-25-23 | Capitals +220 v. Devils | 6-4 | Win | 220 | 13 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington over New Jersey at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. We're seeing a similar trend developing to what we saw last season from the Devils as they played exceptionally well on the road (28-13) but were only average at home (24-17). So far this season, New Jersey is 1-2 in Newark but a perfect 2-0 on the road after last night's 5-2 victory in Montreal. Nothing has gone right for the Capitals so far this season as they check in 1-4, fresh off another lopsided defeat at the hands of the Leafs last night. I will get behind Washington on Wednesday, however, as it draws this divisional matchup, noting that it has taken six of the last seven meetings between these two teams in Newark. The Devils have been playing a lot looser than they probably would like with the 'over' having cashed in all five of their games to date. They've given up 11 goals in three home games this season. I think that opens the door for the slumping Capitals offense here - a team desperate to break out after being held to just seven goals in its first five games. Take Washington (8*). | |||||||
10-25-23 | Hawks -2.5 v. Hornets | 110-116 | Loss | -115 | 35 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over New Orleans at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. When it comes to most sports, I don't put a great deal of stock into preseason results. I generally make an exception when it comes to the NBA, however. There's more of a tendency to see regular rotations, even if the starters aren't playing regular minutes, and we can get a feel for the way teams will play once the regular season commences. Here, we'll lay the points with the Hawks as they open their campaign against the Hornets in Charlotte. Atlanta had a productive preseason, going 3-2 while limiting opponents to 86, 89, 81, 83 and 86 field goal attempts. The Hornets on the other hand got off 93, 94, 88 and 88 FG attempts in their four preseason contests but knocked down 37 or fewer of those attempts in three of those games. In fact, the only game where they were able to get anything going offensively they were facing Oklahoma City's 'B' squad (Charlotte used most of its regular starters and shot 52% from the field and still won by only two points). Atlanta does enter this game with 'double revenge' having dropped its last two meetings with Charlotte last season. Note that the Hornets haven't won three straight matchups in this series since posting five straight victories over the Hawks from 2017 to 2018. Take Atlanta (8*). | |||||||
10-24-23 | Suns v. Warriors OVER 232 | 108-104 | Loss | -110 | 131 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Phoenix and Golden State at 10 pm et on Tuesday. When it comes to most sports, I don't put a great deal of stock into preseason results. I generally make an exception when it comes to the NBA, however. There's more of a tendency to see regular rotations, even if the starters aren't playing regular minutes, and we can get a feel for the way teams will play once the regular season commences. With that being said, through the first four games of the preseason, Suns opponents have been 'filling it up'. In games against the Pistons, Nuggets and Trail Blazers (twice), Phoenix yielded 46, 43, 42 and 41 made field goals in regulation time. That was despite only one of those opponents reaching 90 or more field goal attempts. The Warriors do figure to push the pace on the Suns in their home opener on Tuesday. Save for a game against the Kings in which Steph Curry and Chris Paul sat out, they've looked sharp in the preseason, knocking down 45+ field goals in three of four contests. Phoenix has given its new-look, star-studded starting five enough run in the preseason to lead me to believe we won't see a great deal of rust on Tuesday. In last year's four meetings in this series, the Suns made good on 47, 44, 41 and 46 field goals. Of note, they still put up 125 points in the game where they 'only' knocked down 41 shots. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
10-24-23 | Diamondbacks +158 v. Phillies | 4-2 | Win | 158 | 14 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona over Philadelphia at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The pressure rests squarely on the shoulders of the Phillies in Game 7 on Tuesday after they squandered an opportunity to close out this series at home yesterday. Most expected the Diamondbacks to go off quietly into that good night after dropping Games 1 and 2 in this series. Instead, Arizona answered back with consecutive wins of its own at home before dropping Game 5. Now this youthful team has all the confidence in the world as it looks to stun Philadelphia in front of its home faithful on Tuesday. Rookie Brandon Pfaadt will take the ball for the D'Backs. He displayed some nerves in his first career playoff start in Milwaukee but that seems like ages ago now as he's bounced back by silencing both the Dodgers and these same Phillies in his last two outings. In those two starts, Pfaadt yielded just four hits and no walks while striking out 11 in 10 shutout innings. Current Phillies hitters are a combined 2-for-18 off of the rookie right-hander. Ranger Suarez will counter for Philadelphia. Like Pfaadt, he's been sharp over his last two starts, three if you include a brief outing against the Braves in the NLDS. I don't believe he has the same dominant stuff or extra gear to reach back to compared to Pfaadt, however. What you see is what you get with the veteran left-hander. In 125 innings of work this season he owns a rather pedestrian 3.90 FIP and 1.42 WHIP. If we've learned one thing in these playoffs it's to expect the unexpected and what could be more unexpected than a Rangers-Diamondbacks World Series matchup? Take Arizona (8*). | |||||||
10-24-23 | Stars v. Penguins -104 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -104 | 23 h 26 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh over Dallas at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. Pittsburgh returns home licking its wounds after a winless two-game road trip in Detroit and St. Louis. I look for the Penguins to bounce back on Tuesday as they host the Stars. Dallas is off to a 3-0-1 start after notching back-to-back victories over the Ducks and Flyers, two teams that figure to wind up near the bottom of the NHL standings this season. While I am high on the Stars overall prospects this season, I don't like the spot here as they travel for a one-game trip against a non-conference foe. Note that Dallas is just 45-58 in its last 103 games following consecutive one-goal victories and 97-119 in its last 216 contests coming off an overtime win. This is the start of a key four-game homestand for the Pens before a stretch that sees them play 13 of their next 20 games on the road. Take Pittsburgh (10*). | |||||||
10-23-23 | 49ers v. Vikings OVER 43 | Top | 17-22 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
MNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between San Francisco and Minnesota at 8:15 pm et on Monday. The 49ers got bogged down offensively in a bad weather game (against a very good defense) in Cleveland last Sunday ending their streak of five straight games scoring 30 or more points to open the season. I expect them to pick right back up on Monday as they draw a mouth-watering matchup under the Bank of America Stadium roof in Minnesota. The Vikings only hope on defense is that their blitz-happy nature can force 49ers QB Brock Purdy into a couple of crucial mistakes but I'm more confident in Purdy's ability to pick apart a very beatable Vikes secondary. Even without all-world WR Justin Jefferson, I do think the Minnesota offense can test an extremely stout 49ers defense. Rookie WR Jordan Addison flashed in the absence of JJ last Sunday in Chicago. The Vikes offense got off to a strong start in that contest before slowing down in the second half. While most have given up on RB Alexander Mattison, I think he has plenty of tread left on his tires. Note that he contributed a touchdown run in Minnesota's wild 34-26 loss in San Francisco the last time these two teams met in November of 2021. The Vikes manufactured 26 points in that contest despite Jefferson being held out of the end zone. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is a perfect 7-0 with Minnesota priced as an underdog of between 3.5 and 9.5 points over the last three seasons with that situation totalling an average of 61.2 points. Even if we downgrade the Vikes offense with Jefferson sidelined, they still figure to approach the 20-point mark. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-23-23 | Rangers +114 v. Astros | Top | 11-4 | Win | 114 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
ALCS Game of the Year. My selection is on Texas over Houston at 8:05 pm et on Monday. Bettors will likely be quick to back the Astros to bounce back following last night's blown opportunity to close out this series at home, especially given we're going to see the same pitching matchup from Game 3 - a contest Houston led virtually wire-to-wire in an 8-5 victory. I like Rangers veteran and future Hall-of-Famer Max Scherzer's chances of bouncing back here, however, after he pitched for the first time in over a month in Game 3. Scherzer said after the game that he had more in the tank but agreed with manager Bruce Bochy's decision to lift him from the game after four innings with the Rangers trailing 5-0. While Mad Max got off to a shaky start in that contest, he did settle down and strike out the final two batters he faced and threw 42-of-63 pitches for strikes. We know the moment isn't too big for Scherzer as he's been in similar situations before. Also note that his teams have gone a perfect 6-0 in his last six starts here at Minute Maid Park, including 2-0 in postseason play (as a member of the Nationals in 2019). Cristian Javier will counter for Houston. He's posted tremendous postseason stats during his career and has successfully bounced back in these playoffs following a rough regular season. With that being said, I don't think there's any intimidation factor at play here as the Rangers will be seeing Javier for the eighth time since the start of last season. He didn't last beyond the sixth inning in any of those previous seven outings against Texas. In fact, he's failed to make it through the sixth inning in any of his last four starts against the Rangers. Texas is a perfect 7-0 on the road in these playoffs but it will be all for not if it can't secure a Game 7 victory on Monday night. I expect the Rangers to rise to the occasion once again. Take Texas (10*). | |||||||
10-22-23 | Dolphins v. Eagles -2.5 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 23 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Miami at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. The Eagles bandwagon was effectively cleared following last Sunday's upset loss against the Jets. Here, I'm confident we'll see Philadelphia bounce back against the red hot Dolphins. Miami looks unstoppable on offense but its defense remains vulnerable. The Fins were fortunate to face two punch-drunk offenses in the Giants and Panthers over the last two weeks. They'll face a much different animal this week as the Eagles return home in a foul mood after being perplexed by the Jets defense last Sunday. Philadelphia still has an elite offense while its defense can hold serve just enough to ultimately extend the margin against Miami. Note that the Eagles are 45-24 ATS in their last 69 home games after losing two of their last three contests ATS, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 5.0 points in that situation. Take Philadelphia (8*). | |||||||
10-22-23 | Flames -137 v. Red Wings | 2-6 | Loss | -137 | 5 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Calgary over Detroit at 5:05 pm et on Sunday. We'll back the Flames to rebound following Friday's loss in Columbus as they catch Detroit in a tough back-to-back spot following yesterday's 5-2 win in Ottawa which marked its fourth straight victory. Ville Husso was the star for the Wings yesterday, turning aside 35-of-37 shots. He also stood on his head in last year's 2-1 home win over the Flames as he stopped 35-of-36 shots (Detroit managed only 17 shots in that contest). Calgary should be pleased to be facing Wings backup goaltender James Reimer on Sunday. He did record a shutout in his lone previous start this season (against Columbus) but I'm confident we'll see the Flames get to him here. Note that Detroit is a long-term 10-21 when coming off four straight games in which it scored at least four goals, as is the case here. Take Calgary (8*). | |||||||
10-22-23 | Chargers +5.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 51 m | Show |
AFC West Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Kansas City at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. With the Chargers low-scoring defeat at home against the Cowboys on Monday night fresh in our mind, we'll back Los Angeles as it heads out on the road on a short week to face the mighty Chiefs. Kansas City rode three turnovers to a 19-8 victory over the Broncos a week ago Thursday night. Note that the Chargers have only turned the football three times all season. While Los Angeles has lost three straight matchups in this series, all three defeats came by less than one score. The Chargers have long been successful in road games, going 145-107 ATS in their last 252 games played away from home. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are a miserable 0-8 ATS in their last eight games following a double-digit victory, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of only 2.5 points in that situation. Despite their 2-3 record, the Chargers do a lot of things well and I expect them to give the Chiefs all they can handle on Sunday afternoon. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
10-22-23 | Lions v. Ravens -2.5 | 6-38 | Win | 100 | 16 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Lions are rolling off four straight wins but I look for that streak to grind to a halt on Sunday in Baltimore. Detroit will be without RB David Montgomery for this game and that's a key development as he's one of the best blocking backs in football in addition to his production on the ground. Head coach Dan Campbell has indicated that rookie RB Jahmyr Gibbs will have a full workload but I expect him to struggle in multiple facets here. Detroit has had a difficult time defending opposing tight ends which sets this up as a smash spot for Ravens TE Mark Andrews. Note that the home team has gone 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in this series. The Lions are a woeful 7-24 ATS in their last 31 road games after covering the spread in four or five of their last six contests, as is the case here. Take Baltimore (8*). | |||||||
10-22-23 | Commanders v. Giants +3 | Top | 7-14 | Win | 100 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
NFC East Game of the Month. My selection is on New York plus the points over Washington at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Giants let the Bills off the hook last Sunday night, plain and simple. A massive upset win was there for the taking and New York let it slip away. With that being said, the G-Men have to be feeling as good about themselves as they have all season entering this division matchup against the Commanders. Washington picked up a road win in Atlanta last Sunday despite gaining fewer than 200 total yards. The Commanders will have three two-game road swings this season and I don't expect them to sweep any of them. Whether it's Tyrod Taylor or Daniel Jones under center for the Giants, I expect solid production from the quarterback position on Sunday. RB Saquon Barkley looked no worse for wear following his high ankle sprain last week as he returned and turned in a productive performance against the Bills. The Giants will be taking a step down in class in all facets against Washington and I expect them to take advantage of this rare opportunity to pick up a victory. Take New York (10*). | |||||||
10-22-23 | Raiders v. Bears +3 | 12-30 | Win | 100 | 4 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Las Vegas at 1 pm et on Sunday. | |||||||
10-21-23 | UCLA -17 v. Stanford | 42-7 | Win | 100 | 25 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on UCLA minus the points over Stanford at 10:30 pm et on Saturday. Stanford pulled off a stunning come-from-behind victory over Colorado last week, taking full advantage of a young Buffaloes squad that is still learning how to take the air out of the football and close out a game. The Cardinal won't be so fortunate here as they host a UCLA squad that will surely be in a foul mood following a turnover-fuelled loss at Oregon State last week. In that contest, the Bruins approached 500 total yards of offense for a second straight game but coughed up the football three times. That's something you simply can't do against a team as good as Oregon State. I'm confident we'll see Chip Kelly's Bruins get right back on track this week as they face a Cardinal squad that doesn't do anything particularly well. Stanford did catch a spark with its passing game last week, throwing for a season-high 399 yards. Note that UCLA has allowed just 6.3 yards per pass attempt this season and has been even better against the run, yielding only 2.3 yards per rush. Take UCLA (8*). | |||||||
10-21-23 | Maple Leafs -130 v. Lightning | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Toronto over Tampa Bay at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. The Maple Leafs opened the season with back-to-back wins but have since seen their record fall to 2-2 with losses against the Blackhawks and Panthers. Toronto has scored just two goals in its last two games but I look for it to bounce back offensively here. Note that the Lightning have allowed three or more goals in all five games this season and should continue to struggle keeping pucks out of their net until Andrei Vasilevskiy is able to return between the pipes. Toronto is 33-9 when coming off two losses in its last three games over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.2 goals on average in that situation. The Leafs are also a long-term 56-43 (+10.2 net games) after scoring one goal or less in consecutive games. This is a 'revenge game' for the Bolts after being ousted by the Leafs in the first round of the playoffs. With that being said, the Leafs are 6-4 in their last 10 games in Tampa and I look for them to rise to the occasion again here. Take Toronto (10*). | |||||||
10-21-23 | Washington State +20.5 v. Oregon | Top | 24-38 | Win | 100 | 29 h 13 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Week. My selection is on Washington State plus the points over Oregon at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. Washington State limps into this matchup on the heels of consecutive losses but I look for the Cougars to give the Ducks all they can handle on Saturday. Last year, Washington State let Oregon off the hook at home, leading 17-9 at halftime but ultimately fell in a 44-41 thriller. You would have to go back five meetings in this series to find the last time the Cougars managed to secure a victory and while they'll be hard-pressed to do so in Eugene on Saturday, I do think they can give the Ducks a run. Oregon came out on the wrong end of a 36-33 decision on the road against Washington last Saturday. Note that the Ducks are a long-term 20-37 ATS when coming off a road defeat, outscoring opponents by just 1.1 point on average in that situation. The Cougars have turned the football over seven times during their two-game losing streak but they should be happy to face the Ducks, noting that they've forced a single turnover or less in five of six games so far this season. Take Washington State (10*). | |||||||
10-21-23 | Boston College +5.5 v. Georgia Tech | 38-23 | Win | 100 | 15 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston College plus the points over Georgia Tech at 12 noon et on Saturday. Boston College has found something over its last couple of games, both victories over Virginia and Army, rushing for a total of 504 yards while continuing its incredibly consistent scoring pace. The Eagles have put up at least 24 points in all six games this season - a welcome change for a program that seemed to be stuck in the mud offensively in recent years. That's more than can be said for Georgia Tech, which is coming off a thrilling 23-20 win over Miami (the Hurricanes let the Yellow Jackets off the hook in that game by electing not to take a knee in the final minute). Were it not for that gaffe by Miami we would be talking about a Georgia Tech squad that is 2-4 this season. Also note that the Yellow Jackets are yielding 5.1 yards per rush this season, opening the door for the underdog Eagles to effectively shorten proceedings on Saturday. You would have to go back four matchups in this series - all the way to 2012 - to find the last time the Yellow Jackets defeated the Eagles by more than a field goal. I can't help but feel this one will be nip-and-tuck all the way. Take Boston College (8*). | |||||||
10-20-23 | Phillies -124 v. Diamondbacks | 5-6 | Loss | -124 | 12 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over Arizona at 8:05 pm et on Friday. The Phillies offense dried up in last night's 2-1 defeat as they let the Diamondbacks back into the series. I expect Arizona's success to be short-lived, however, as it looks to even the series at two games apiece on Friday. Cristopher Sanchez will take the ball for the Phillies in Game 4. I wouldn't put too much stock into his presence at the start of this game as he's likely to be on a short leash having not pitched since September 30th and not started a game since September 27th. He's held his own on the road this season, holding opposing batters to a .207 average while giving up only five extra-base hits in 92 plate appearances. Joe Mantiply will get the start for the D'Backs in what amounts to a bullpen game. I think there's a good chance the Phillies jump all over the left-hander, noting their current hitters are a combined 14-for-31 including six extra-base hits against him. Interestingly, Bryce Harper is 0-for-4 against Mantiply but I'd rather bet on Harper noting he's been one of the Phillies hottest hitters in these playoffs, batting .357 with four home runs. He was 0-for-2 last night. The last time he went hitless in a playoff game (and only previous time he did so this October) he responded by going 2-for-2 in Game 1 of the NLDS in Atlanta, helping Philadelphia to a 3-0 victory. Take Philadelphia (8*). | |||||||
10-20-23 | Flames v. Blue Jackets +127 | 1-3 | Win | 127 | 10 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Columbus over Calgary at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The Flames face a quick turn-around on Friday in Columbus after skating to a hard-fought 4-3 win in Buffalo last night. Meanwhile, the Blue Jackets have had three days to stew on a 4-0 loss suffered at home against the Red Wings on Monday. Note that Columbus is 8-4 when coming off a home loss by three goals or more since the start of last season. Calgary checks in 10-21 after scoring four or more goals in its previous contest over the same stretch. This matchup obviously carries a little extra meaning for Blue Jackets superstar Johnny Gaudreau as he faces his former team. Last year, Columbus held its own against Calgary, splitting a pair of matchups including a 3-1 victory here on home ice. Take Columbus (8*). | |||||||
10-19-23 | Jaguars v. Saints UNDER 40 | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Jacksonville and New Orleans at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. While the contrarian in me would love to back the 'over' with the Saints riding a six-game 'under' streak to start the season, I don't see where the points are going to come from on Thursday night in New Orleans. While it may be lost on the average fan or bettor, the Saints have major issues on their offensive line with a number of players either injured or downright ineffective. The Jaguars boast a pass rush that's capable of taking advantage of the Saints o-line woes and I think that leads to New Orleans employing a rather conservative offensive gameplan on Thursday night. We can expect plenty of dump-off passes from QB Derek Carr to RB Alvin Kamara against a Jags defense that concedes such plays regularly. While the Saints wide receivers do have a favorable matchup against a Jags secondary that has been leaky at the best of times and will be missing key CB Tyson Campbell, I'm not convinced Carr will have enough time in the pocket to take advantage. On the flip side, the Jags will either trot out QB Trevor Lawrence on a short week on a gimpy knee or backup C.J. Beathard who has barely seen an NFL field over the last few seasons. Either way, expect Doug Pederson to employ a similarly conservative gameplan to that of the Saints. RB Travis Etienne will likely be force-fed in this game but whether that leads to anything other than modest gains remains to be seen as the Saints defense has yielded just 3.5 yards per rush this season and has yet to allow an opposing running back to reach the end zone. The Jags were involved in a game that totalled 57 points last week but that actually sets us up nicely here as the 'under' is 11-3 the last 14 times they've come off a game that totalled 50+ points, resulting in just 39.7 total points in that situation. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
10-19-23 | Canucks v. Lightning -125 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Vancouver at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Lightning are coming off a disappointing 0-3 road trip that saw them face three up-and-coming Atlantic Division foes that are all gunning for their spot this season. Tampa Bay looked rather lethargic until the third period against Buffalo on Tuesday. While it did end up losing that game in overtime, perhaps the fact that it rallied to earn a point gives it a bit of a boost entering this matchup with the Canucks on Thursday. Vancouver was lifeless in Tuesday's shutout loss in Philadelphia. More regression could be on the way for the Canucks as this four-game road trip continues. Note that the Lightning have won six straight meetings in this series, scoring at least five goals in four of those games. Here, we'll note that Tampa Bay is 81-44 under head coach Jon Cooper when coming off consecutive losses, outscoring foes by an average margin of 0.7 goals in that situation. Take Tampa Bay (8*). | |||||||
10-19-23 | James Madison v. Marshall +3.5 | Top | 20-9 | Loss | -105 | 36 h 15 m | Show |
Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Marshall plus the points over James Madison at 7 pm et on Thursday. Marshall got off to a red hot 4-0 start to the season but has since lost consecutive road games to fall to 4-2, dropping all the way back to fifth place in the Sun Belt Conference standings. I like the bounce-back spot for the Thundering Herd on Thursday as they host undefeated James Madison. The Dukes will be looking for their fourth road win of the season, a feat they didn't accomplish all of last year. Marshall has proven tough on the opposition here at home where it checks in a perfect 3-0. This will be a 'revenge game' for James Madison after it dropped a 26-12 decision as a 9.5-point home favorite against Marshall. Of course, revenge is generally a dish best served at home and I like the Thundering Herd's chances of holding serve behind a big game from QB Cam Fancher and RB Rasheen Ali. James Madison has seen many of its opponents abandon the run but I don't believe that will be the case with Marshall, noting that it has ripped off more than 100 rushing yards in all six games this season. Take Marshall (10*). | |||||||
10-19-23 | Phillies v. Diamondbacks +117 | 1-2 | Win | 117 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona over Philadelphia at 5:05 pm et on Thursday. For the Phillies, picking up two more wins and moving on to the World Series for a second straight year seems like only a formality at this point. With that being said, I don't think the Diamondbacks will go away quietly as the series shifts to Arizona for Game 3 on Thursday afternoon. Ranger Suarez will get the start for Philadelphia. He pitched well in two NLDS starts against Atlanta although not much was asked of him as he faced just 13 and 18 batters in those two contests. The D'Backs have had some success against the left-hander, going a combined 20-for-70 (.270) against him with only 15 strikeouts and 11 walks. Brandon Pfaadt will counter for Arizona. The rookie struggled in his playoff debut against the Brewers (in Milwaukee) but rebounded in his next outing against the Dodgers (at home), throwing 30-of-42 pitches for strikes and allowing just two hits over 4 1/3 shutout innings. Note that the Phillies are just 6-12 this season after allowing four runs or less in four consecutive games, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 1.7 runs in that situation. Take Arizona (8*). | |||||||
10-18-23 | Astros +121 v. Rangers | 8-5 | Win | 121 | 24 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston over Texas at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'm not entirely sure why the Rangers are messing with their starting rotation and inserting Max Scherzer on Wednesday when they've clearly got a good thing going in that regard. The Rangers are saying all the right things and we know Scherzer is the ultimate competitor so he wants to be out there but he's only thrown a 65 or 70-pitch bullpen session ahead of this critical start and I won't be surprised if the Astros jump all over him, just as they did back on September 6th, right here in Texas (Houston scored seven earned runs off of Scherzer in just three innings). Cristian Javier will get the call for the Astros. He improved on his terrific career postseason numbers with a masterful outing against the Twins in the ALDS. Houston has to feel as if it has the right guy on the hill to get it back into this series noting that it has gone 7-3 in Javier's 10 previous starts against Texas. Current Rangers hitters are just 30-for-123 (.244) off of Javier with only 12 extra-base hits. Take Houston (8*). | |||||||
10-18-23 | Penguins v. Red Wings +108 | 3-6 | Win | 108 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit over Pittsburgh at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Penguins certainly boast more high-profile talent but I think the Red Wings are playing better hockey out of the gates this season. Pittsburgh dropped an ugly 4-2 decision at home against the Blackhawks before rebounding with consecutive wins over the Capitals and Flames. Keep in mind, it didn't score in the first two periods against Calgary before exploding for five goals in the third. All in all, we've seen an uneven brand of hockey from the Pens through three games. Detroit has collected at least a point in all three games and checks in off consecutive wins over the Lightning and Blue Jackets. With 13 goals through three games, the Wings are firing on all cylinders right now. There's no reason for them to be intimidated here after taking two of three meetings in this series last season. Take Detroit (8*). | |||||||
10-17-23 | Diamondbacks +149 v. Phillies | Top | 0-10 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
NLCS Game of the Year. My selection is on Arizona over Philadelphia at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Phillies took the opener of this series by a 5-3 score last night, notching their fifth consecutive victory at home in these playoffs. I look for that streak to come to an end on Tuesday, however, as the Diamondbacks hand the ball to Merrill Kelly against Aaron Nola of the Phillies. Kelly should have a live arm having not pitched since October 7th, when he helped the D'Backs to an 11-2 rout of the Dodgers in Los Angeles. Since getting rocked for seven earned runs against the Mets on September 14th, Kelly has allowed just four earned runs in four starts, covering a span of 25 innings of work. Note that Arizona has won 10 of Kelly's 16 road starts this season. Aaron Nola recorded nine strikeouts against Atlanta last time out and while most bettors will look at that as a positive, high strikeout totals have been problematic for Nola in his next start this season. After striking out nine or more batters, Nola has gone on to allow 5, 6, 0, 4 and 7 earned runs in his next outing with the Phillies going 0-5 in those contests. The D'Backs should be happy to be facing Nola noting that he owns a 7.67 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in five career starts against them. While Arizona has now dropped four straight meetings with the Phillies, that actually sets up favorably here as it has gone 7-1 when seeking quadruple-revenge against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 2.0 runs on average in that situation. Take Arizona (10*). | |||||||
10-17-23 | Canucks -140 v. Flyers | 0-2 | Loss | -140 | 23 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Vancouver over Philadelphia at 6:05 pm et on Tuesday. There's a lot to like about the Canucks right now. They were ripe for a letdown, giving up an early going against the Oilers in Edmonton on Saturday night but rather than folding the tent, they battled for 60 minutes and came away with a 4-3 win - their second straight victory over Edmonton to open the season. While they're not likely to remain undefeated through the end of this five-game road trip, I don't think their streak ends in Philadelphia. The Flyers got off to a surprisingly hot start last season but it was all downhill from there and we can expect more of the same from this rebuilding squad in 23-24. Philadelphia has split its first two games, winning in Columbus before dropping a 5-2 decision in Ottawa. I simply feel Vancouver has a lot more upside right now as it is getting terrific goaltending and has been scoring in bunches. The Flyers still have a big question mark between the pipes with Carter Hart once again struggling to the tune of a .891 save percentage through two games. I know it's early but Hart has never really settled into the gig in Philadelphia. Take Vancouver (8*). | |||||||
10-16-23 | Cowboys v. Chargers UNDER 51 | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 24 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Los Angeles at 8:15 pm et on Monday. Dallas has yet to see consecutive games go 'over' the total this season and I don't think we'll see that change on Monday night. Last week's debacle against the 49ers can't be pinned on the Cowboys defense. Dallas turned the football over four times in that contest. If you're going to give a team as good as the Niners that many extra possessions, they're going to take advantage and they did scoring 42 points. Here, I look for a much cleaner performance from the Cowboys offense while the defense bounces back as well. While Dallas has proven to be pass-happy with Mike McCarthy calling the plays, it has still topped out at just 253 passing yards in a game this season. I look for the Chargers to employ a balanced offensive attack with RB Austin Ekeler back at full strength. The loss of WR Mike Williams to a season-ending injury hurts against a defense like the Cowboys. Keenan Allen remains an elite wide receiver but not necessarily a field-stretcher like Williams is. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 27-13 with the Cowboys coming off a road loss by two touchdowns or more while the 'under' has gone 60-39 in the Chargers last 99 home games that have seen a total set at 45.5 or higher. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
10-16-23 | Coyotes v. Rangers OVER 6.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and New York at 7:05 pm et on Monday. I think the Coyotes are going to prove to be one of the more exciting teams to watch in the NHL this season and they certainly showed why in their season-opener on Friday - a 4-3 shootout win over the Devils. Here, they're running into a tough spot as the Rangers return home off a blowout loss in Columbus on Saturday. Note that the 'over' is a perfect 6-0 with New York coming off a road loss by two goals or more over the last two seasons with that situation producing an average total of 8.1 goals. Small sample size, I know, but I think the play sets up well here as the Coyotes are brimming with talent up front but perhaps subpar at the back-end and shouldn't shy away from another high-scoring affair. Having scored just three goals combined in two losses against the Rangers last season, the Coyotes know that type of offensive production just isn't going to cut it in this particular matchup. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
10-16-23 | Rangers v. Astros -118 | 5-4 | Loss | -118 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston over Texas at 4:35 pm et on Monday. The Rangers took the opener of this series last night, improving to an incredible 6-0 in the postseason. I look for the Astros to answer back on Monday as they send Framber Valdez to the hill against Nathan Eovaldi of the Rangers. It's worth noting that Texas hasn't won consecutive games against Houston since back in May of 2021. Eovaldi has struggled mightily against current Astros hitters, allowing 45 hits in 145 at-bats (.310). That includes a whopping 22 extra-base hits, not to mention a modest 27:16 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Framber Valdez hasn't pitched particularly well lately but I like his chances of rising to the occasion in this critical matchup. He owns a 3.64 ERA and 1.10 WHIP at home this season and will be happy to be pitching in the daytime, having logged a sparkling 1.32 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in five afternoon starts this year. While the Rangers were able to close out last night's game, they've blown 16 saves while converting only 13 on the road this season. Take Houston (8*). | |||||||
10-15-23 | Lightning +105 v. Senators | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Ottawa at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. It would be easy to get down on the Lightning following last night's dismal performance in Detroit (lost 6-4 and were outshot 42-25). Instead, we'll back the Bolts as they get right back on the ice against another divisional foe in Ottawa on Sunday. Note that they were in a similar situation in the preseason after giving up 50+ shots in a loss against the Panthers, rebounding with a 4-2 win in a quick rematch two nights later. Tampa Bay likely had this game circled on its current three-game road trip noting that it has dropped consecutive meetings in this series, allowing a whopping seven goals in both games. The Sens skated to a 5-2 win over the Flyers yesterday afternoon to even their record at 1-1. We'll note that they're just 11-21 when playing at home after scoring three goals or more in consecutive games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 0.4 goals in that situation. Take Tampa Bay (8*). | |||||||
10-15-23 | Eagles -6.5 v. Jets | Top | 14-20 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 7 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over New York at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. The Eagles are cruising along a little bit, dare I say, beneath the radar at 5-0 on the season. Philadelphia will again try to string together an ATS winning streak for the first time this season as it heads to the Meadowlands to face the Jets on Sunday. I like the way this matchup sets up for Philadelphia. Yes, the Jets possess a talented defense. Yet the reality is they're still giving up plenty to opposing passing games, as we saw in last week's relatively high-scoring affair in Denver, and are sorely missing Sauce Gardner's running mate at corner in D.J. Reed. The Eagles offense hasn't always looked dominant this season but I think this matchup favors them immensely. While Philadelphia will be forced to go without CB Darius Slay and DT Jalen Carter among others, it is also expected to get back LB Nakobe Dean. The Jets offense isn't all that difficult to gameplan for. The Eagles will need to key on RB Breece Hall and WR Garrett Wilson. There's no question QB Zach Wilson's presence continues to keep New York's offensive ceiling relatively low. I certainly don't expect Breece Hall to slice and dice through the Eagles defense the way he did against the Broncos sieve-like defensive front last Sunday. Take Philadelphia (10*). | |||||||
10-15-23 | Vikings v. Bears OVER 43.5 | Top | 19-13 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 1 m | Show |
NFC North Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Chicago at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Vikings season is obviously swirling down the drain following another loss last Sunday, not to mention the fact that all-world WR Justin Jefferson will miss a considerable number of weeks due to injury. With that being said, Minnesota is in a smash spot against the Bears on Sunday and should finally be able to get rolling offensively. Thought to be one of the best 'over' bets on a weekly basis out of the gates this season, you would have to go back to Week 2 to find the last time a game involving the Vikes found its way 'over' the total. That should change here. The Bears defense has already given up a whopping eight rushing touchdowns through five games this season. Chicago's secondary has been ravaged by injuries and even without Jefferson, Minnesota's passing game remains dynamic with rookie WR Jordan Addison, K.J. Osborn and TE T.J. Hockenson in line to eat on Sunday afternoon. On the flip side, it's all systems go for Bears QB Justin Fields after he got going against the Commanders last week. Minnesota has managed to pick off just one pass all season in contrast with eight passing touchdowns allowed. That's about par for the course given the Vikes personnel deficits in pass defense. I can't imagine Chicago bothering to bang its head against the wall running the ball in this game, instead electing to attack Minnesota's burnable secondary through the air. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-15-23 | Seahawks v. Bengals OVER 45 | 13-17 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. It's not being priced like it but I believe this game has shootout potential as Seattle comes out of its bye week with a date with the Bengals in Cincinnati. This matchup sets up favorably for the Seahawks offense as Cincinnati checks in allowing a whopping 5.0 yards per rush on the season. I always think of Seattle as a run-first team under Pete Carroll and sophomore RB Kenneth Walker is quietly having a terrific season. Of course, that doesn't mean that the Seahawks aren't comfortable taking to the air. There's reason to believe QB Geno Smith will be more comfortable in the pocket this week with a trio of starting offensive linemen set to return. When given time, there's no reason the Seahawks offense shouldn't be able to take the lid off the Bengals pass defense will field-stretchers D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Locket and even Jaxon Smith-Njigba who has yet to have a breakout performance. There's little reason to worry about the Bengals offense after they feasted on the Cardinals in Arizona last week. QB Joe Burrow appears to have put his nagging calf injury behind him and Seattle always seems to be vulnerable on defense, regardless the personnel it sends to the field. When the Bengals offense is right, it is one of the most dynamic in the entire NFL. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
10-14-23 | Canucks v. Oilers -1.5 | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Edmonton -1.5 goals over Vancouver at 10:05 pm et on Saturday. The Canucks blasted the Oilers 8-1 in Wednesday's season-opener in Vancouver. We'll confidently back the Oilers to bounce back as they wrap up this home-and-home series in Edmonton on Saturday. The last four matchups between these two teams have now been decided by two or more goals. Note that Vancouver hasn't defeated Edmonton in consecutive meetings since 2019-2021 (Covid year in between). The Oilers clearly weren't up for the challenge on Wednesday, perhaps assuming the Canucks would simply roll over with a flu running through their dressing room and a number of players under the weather. Instead, Vancouver came up with an inspired performance with Brock Boeser leading the way with four goals. The good news for Edmonton is that every loss counts the same, regardless the score. Here, we'll note that the Oilers have averaged 4.2 goals per game when coming off a loss over the last two seasons. I don't expect the Canucks to keep pace in this quick rematch. Take Edmonton -1.5 goals (8*). | |||||||
10-14-23 | Oregon v. Washington -3 | Top | 33-36 | Push | 0 | 27 h 7 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Week. My selection is on Washington minus the points over Oregon at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. The road team has won three straight meetings in this series but I look for that streak to come to an end on Saturday in Seattle. Oregon has turned in three straight near-perfect performances, crushing Hawaii 55-10 before dismantling Colorado and Stanford by identical 42-6 scores. The Ducks figure to get a wake-up call on Saturday, however, as they take on fellow undefeated Pac-12 squad Washington. The Huskies boast one of the most innovative offensive attacks in college football this season, perhaps taking a page out of the Ducks book. Washington was involved in more of a fight than expected last Saturday as it outlasted Arizona by a touchdown in Tucson. Here, I look for the Huskies defense to pave the way as they should be able to get home against Ducks QB Bo Nix on numerous occasions. We know what to expect from the Washington offense but I believe it's defense remains underrated, even as we approach the midpoint of October. Take Washington (10*). | |||||||
10-14-23 | Illinois v. Maryland -13 | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Maryland minus the points over Illinois at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. Maryland predictably dropped its first game of the season last week in Columbus, falling by 20 points after getting off to a fast start against the Buckeyes. The Terrapins needed to turn in a perfectly clean performance to contend with mighty Ohio State but ended up giving the Buckeyes a pair of extra possessions by way of turnovers. That left enough daylight for Ohio State to run away with the game late. Here, I look for Maryland to bounce back as it hosts a listless Illinois squad that is 2-4 SU and 0-6 ATS this season, most recently failing to show up in a big primetime home game against Nebraska. That was a win the Illini needed but didn't come close to getting. I don't see them picking themselves up off the mat here. This will be the Terps fifth home game already this season and they've blasted away on this field, averaging 5.2 yards per rush and 8.8 yards per pass attempt. Any progress the Illini have made on the road has come in garbage time for the most part in lopsided losses at Kansas and Purdue. Take Maryland (8*). | |||||||
10-14-23 | California v. Utah -10.5 | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 27 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah minus the points over California at 3 pm et on Saturday. Utah has had two weeks to figure things out following an ugly 21-7 loss to Oregon State. The Utes still have everything in front of them, sitting at 4-1 on the season. With that being said, they've looked punch-drunk on offense with QB Cam Rising sidelined. He's unlikely to play again this week but I look for a much sharper performance from the Utes against a Cal defense that has taken a pounding to this point, most recently allowing 52 points against aforementioned Oregon State last week. Speaking of taking a pounding, the Bears ground attack has been relied upon heavily and is starting to show some signs of wear with Jaydn Ott forced to leave last week's game but likely to return in time for Saturday's contest. I'm not sure it matters who the Bears have out there on Saturday, the Utes defense should feast. Utah checks in having allowed just 59 points through five games this season. Even if the Utes offense sputters again, the defense should be up to the task against a Cal offense that has committed multiple turnovers in four of six games this season. Take Utah (8*). | |||||||
10-13-23 | Fresno State -4 v. Utah State | 37-32 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Fresno State minus the points over Utah State at 8 pm et on Friday. Fresno State fell out of the top-25 rankings following last week's upset loss at Wyoming. The Bulldogs lost QB Mikey Keene to an ankle injury in that game and with word coming out that he's unlikely to play on Friday, this line has shifted toward Utah State. I don't agree with the move, noting that Keene's backup, Logan Fife, was arguably the front-runner for the starting job heading into fall camp and he should relish the opportunity to take over the reins in a big bounce-back game for the team on Friday. Fife knows the playbook having seen action in each of the last two seasons. While he has by no means thrived, turnovers have been the biggest issue. The good news is, he'll be facing a sieve-like Utah State defense on Friday. The Aggies rallied from an early 17-0 deficit to blast Colorado State by 20 points last week. I expect them to find the going much tougher against a terrific Fresno State defense on Friday. The strength in the Bulldogs defense lies in the second and third levels, and that's precisely where Aggies QB Cooper Legas likes to attack. I would worry about Legas getting a little over-zealous after he successfully bombed away on a bad Colorado State defense last week. Legas, like Fife, has been turnover-prone throughout his college career but the difference here is that Fresno State has the ball-hawkers on defense to take advantage of any mistakes. I think we can forgive the Bulldogs for a flat performance in Laramie last week. Keep in mind this is a team used to playing in front of 40,000+ in Fresno, nearly double what Wyoming (or Utah State) draws. Look for them to get their season back on track in this primetime affair. Take Fresno State (8*). | |||||||
10-13-23 | Penguins -119 v. Capitals | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 14 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh over Washington at 7:30 pm et on Friday. The Penguins let the Blackhawks off the hook on Tuesday, perhaps thinking they had two points in the bag up 2-0 in the second period. Of course a veteran team like Pittsburgh should know that you can never take anything for granted in today’s NHL, regardless the level of opposition. Here, I look for the Pens to bounce back against hated rival Washington on Friday night. The Capitals elected to more or less stand pat with their veteran roster during the offseason. This season will likely be more about Alex Ovechkin’s chase for the all-time scoring record than anything else. Take Pittsburgh (8*). | |||||||
10-12-23 | Broncos v. Chiefs UNDER 47.5 | 8-19 | Win | 100 | 36 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. The Chiefs are well-positioned to feast on a matador-like Broncos defense on Thursday night. With that being said, we've seen Kansas City play down to the competition in these primetime games in recent years and it's not as if the Chiefs offense has been humming, scoring 27 points or less in four of five games this season and now playing on a short week with TE Travis Kelce banged-up (but likely to play). As for the Denver offense, it figures to get stuck in the mud against a Chiefs defense that has quietly gone about its business, holding all five opponents to 21 points or less this season. There's absolutely nothing appealing about this matchup as far as the Broncos offense goes with the Kansas City defense all but eliminating opponents' big play potential and Denver unable to stretch the field, no matter the opponent. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 15-3 with the Broncos coming off three or more consecutive games in which they allowed 25+ points. The 'under' is also a long-term 42-22 with the Chiefs installed as a home favorite of between 7.5 and 14 points. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
10-12-23 | Seattle Kraken +102 v. Predators | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle over Nashville at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. We've seen this line shift toward the Predators, likely due to the Kraken's lopsided 4-1 loss in Las Vegas two nights ago. Seattle didn't get much 'puck luck' in that game, outshooting the Golden Knights by a 33-28 margin. Meanwhile, the Predators opened their campaign with a 5-3 loss in Tampa, blowing a 3-2 third period lead in that defeat. There was really no excuse for Nashville to come out as flat as it did in that game as it was outshot 12-2 in the opening period. The Kraken took two of three meetings in this series last season, scoring 14 goals in the process. Note that Seattle has reeled off eight straight victories when playing on the road following a division game, outscoring opponents by 2.3 goals on average in that situation. Take Seattle (8*). | |||||||
10-12-23 | West Virginia v. Houston +3 | 39-41 | Win | 100 | 34 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston plus the points over West Virginia at 7 pm et on Thursday. The bye week couldn't have come at a better time for Dana Holgorsen's Houston Cougars. They're off to a disappointing 2-3 start to the season, most recently blown out by Texas Tech in Lubbock on September 30th. It's not too late to turn things around but bagging a victory over Holgorsen's former team is paramount with a home date with Texas on deck before back-to-back sneaky-tough road tilts at Kansas State and Baylor. With only two victories to date, the Cougars could run out of real estate in a hurry in terms of Bowl eligibility if they can't hold serve on Thursday. You could argue that the bye week came at an awful time for West Virginia as it was rolling after four straight wins including a 24-21 upset victory at TCU. The Mountaineers lost one of their best defenders in LB Trey Lathan to a scary knee injury in that contest. That's bad news for a West Virginia team that has been fuelled by its defense in the early going this season. These two offenses are almost mirror images of one another, led by mobile quarterbacks in Garrett Greene of the Mountaineers and Donovan Smith of the Cougars. I like Houston's advantage with former West Virginia standouts RB Tony Mathis and WR Samuel Brown poised to ball out. For my money, Brown is the best offensive player on the field in this matchup. Take Houston (8*). | |||||||
10-11-23 | Dodgers -140 v. Diamondbacks | 2-4 | Loss | -140 | 25 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Arizona at 9:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Dodgers couldn't get their offense going at all in Games 1 and 2 in Los Angeles. With this game projected to be much higher-scoring, I look for L.A. to find its way back into the series with a victory. Lance Lynn will be tasked with stopping the bleeding for the Dodgers. I believe he's the right guy on the mound in this moment, noting that he has held current Diamondbacks hitters to a combined 10-for-50 at the plate. It's a much different story for D'Backs rookie starter Brandon Pfaadt. He was shaky in his postseason debut in Milwaukee. Now he goes up against a Dodgers club that has clocked him to the tune of 16-for-42 (.381) at the dish with eight extra-base hits. Pfaadt won't have a very long leash in this game. Note that Los Angeles is 18-4 when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.8 runs in that situation. Arizona checks in 15-24 when coming off a victory by two runs or less this season, outscored by 1.1 runs on average in that spot. Take Los Angeles (8*). | |||||||
10-11-23 | Sam Houston State +3.5 v. New Mexico State | 13-27 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sam Houston State plus the points over New Mexico State at 9 pm et on Wednesday. Sam Houston State checks into this game sporting an 0-5 record on the season. Even if it could get just a little something out of its offense it might be in a much different situation right now. I think it's only a matter of time before the Bearkats pick up that first victory in FBS play and New Mexico State could very well be ripe for the picking. It's not as if the Aggies are setting the world on fire offensively. They hung 34 points on a bad Florida International team last week but 17 of those came in the fourth quarter. They're just one game removed from scoring only 17 points in a loss at Hawaii. While I do like New Mexico State QB Diego Pavia, Sam Houston State has the talent on defense to keep him under wraps all night long. The Bearkats offense did make some progress last week as QB Keegan Shoemaker threw for 255 yards and a pair of touchdowns and also added 52 yards on the ground. I don't expect this team to be discouraged by its 0-5 start noting that it isn't eligible for a Bowl game in its first year in the FBS anyway. Take Sam Houston State (8*). | |||||||
10-10-23 | Seattle Kraken +1.5 v. Golden Knights | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -165 | 27 h 59 m | Show |
Pacific Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle +1.5 goals over Vegas at 10:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Golden Knights will raise their Stanley Cup banner to the rafters at T-Mobile Arena on Tuesday night but I look for the Kraken to be the ones celebrating at the end of the night. We'll grab the insurance goal here as I had the puck-line price pegged much closer to -200. Vegas is coming off a preseason that saw it win just two of seven games by two goals or more. Meanwhile, the Kraken lost just two of six preseason tilts by 2+ goals. Of course we can throw those preseason results out the window pretty quickly with the puck dropping for real on Tuesday. I do like the matchup here, noting that the Kraken were more than just a 'tough out' on the road last season, going 26-11-4. They enter this season with a chip on their shoulder after upsetting the Avalanche in seven games in the opening round of the playoffs but falling to the Stars in another seven-game grinder in the second round. The Golden Knights essentially stood pat in the offseason and why not after winning their first Stanley Cup in June. With that being said, I do think they have an aging defensive corps that could ultimately be exposed by teams like the Kraken in the early stages of this season. Take Seattle +1.5 goals (10*). | |||||||
10-10-23 | Astros v. Twins UNDER 8 | Top | 9-1 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
ALDS Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Minnesota at 4:05 pm et on Tuesday. I really like the way the 'under' sets up in Game 3 of this series on Tuesday afternoon in Minnesota. Astros starter Cristian Javier had a tough regular season as a whole. Big things were expected of the young right-hander after a phenomenal 2022 campaign but he struggled for the most part. The good news is, he did close out the campaign in solid form, posting a 2.30 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over his last three starts. Also note that Javier, while young, has been here before, logging a 4-1 record to go along with a 2.20 ERA with 38 strikeouts in 14 career playoff appearances. Twins starter Sonny Gray has recorded a 2.67 ERA and 1.15 WHIP this season - Cy Young Award-caliber numbers for the underrated right-hander. Gray tossed five shutout innings against the Blue Jays in the Wild Card round. For his career, Gray owns a 2.39 ERA with 24 strikeouts in five postseason appearances. Both bullpens are in solid form and of course the off day on Monday helps their cause. Also note that Bill Miller will be the umpire on Tuesday and he has seen the 'under' cash at a 440-363 clip over the course of his career, including a 17-12 mark this season. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-09-23 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -149 | 4-2 | Loss | -149 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Arizona at 9:05 pm et on Monday. The Diamondbacks are the Cinderella story of this year’s playoffs but I do expect their three-game winning streak to come to an end on Monday. Zac Gallen will take the ball for Arizona. While he’s had another terrific season he’s up against a Dodgers lineup that is familiar with his stuff. A whopping seven different Los Angeles hitters have homered off of Gallen. Rookie Bobby Miller will counter for the Dodgers. I like the fact that he gets to make his playoff debut at home. A lot is expected of the Dodgers young pitchers with the likes of Julio Urias and Tony Gonsolin sidelined and I look for Miller to rise to the occasion with L.A. coming off a loss in Game 1. Take Los Angeles (8*). | |||||||
10-09-23 | Packers v. Raiders OVER 45 | 13-17 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Green Bay and Las Vegas at 8:15 pm et on Monday. There's a lot the Raiders can do offensively to stay competitive in this football game. RB Josh Jacobs is well-positioned to go off against a Packers defense that has barely laid a hand on opposing running backs this season. While Jimmy Garoppolo's return leads to many downgrading the Raiders offense, I'm not as down on him as most. The Packers secondary is still banged-up with CB Jaire Alexander labelled with a questionable tag, even with the team being idle since a week ago Thursday. LB De'Vondre Campbell's absence can't be understated either. Meanwhile, it's back to all systems go for the Packers offense with RB Aaron Jones likely to return and WR Christian Watson unlikely to be as limited as he was in his return against the Lions. The Raiders vaunted pass rush hasn't been getting home nearly enough so far this season and their secondary is low-rate at best. This sets up as a favorable spot for Packers QB Jordan Love to show off his skills after a miserable performance against Detroit. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is a long-term 36-19 with the Packers coming off a home loss and 18-7 with the Raiders playing at home off a loss by a touchdown or less against a divisional opponent, as is the case here. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
10-09-23 | Phillies v. Braves -149 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta over Philadelphia at 6:05 pm et on Monday. The Braves dropped the opener of this series in shutout fashion on Saturday but that sets them up well to rebound in Game 2 in Atlanta on Monday. Note that Atlanta has gone 70-26 all-time with Max Fried on the mound as a favorite, as is the case here. The Braves are also 47-21 when coming off consecutive losses against an opponent, which is also the situation here (Atlanta has dropped its last two meetings with Philadelphia), over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, the Phillies check in just 6-11 when coming off four or more consecutive games in which they allowed four runs or less this season, outscored by an average margin of 1.9 runs in that situation. We'll also favor the Braves noting that Phillies starter Zack Wheeler has posted a 7-11 team record in 18 previous nighttime starts this season. Take Atlanta (8*). | |||||||
10-08-23 | Cowboys v. 49ers UNDER 45.5 | 10-42 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and San Francisco at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. The Cowboys are expected to get some reinforcements back on their offensive line in time for Sunday's showdown with the 49ers in Santa Clara. As strange as it sounds, I believe that works in our favor with the 'under' as it should allow Dallas to at least possess the football for longer stretches, chewing up plenty of clock and effectively shortening this game. Given how efficient the Niners offense has been since Brock Purdy took over at quarterback late last season, the less they have the football the better as far as the Cowboys are concerned. Dallas will likely be banging its head against the wall for much of the night trying to run the football as the Niners defense has proven to be a brick wall in that regard. Meanwhile, the Cowboys aerial attack has been lukewarm. QB Dak Prescott has attempted 25, 38, 40 and 36 passes in four games this season yet has topped out at just 253 passing yards. On the flip side, this is a likely regression spot for the 49ers offense against an elite Cowboys defense. Dallas did get to see this Purdy-run offense in action in the playoffs last January, limiting it to 19 points and 312 total yards, albeit in a losing effort. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
10-08-23 | Jets v. Broncos UNDER 43.5 | Top | 31-21 | Loss | -110 | 105 h 42 m | Show |
AFC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Denver at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. We're looking at a classic overreaction to last Sunday's results in my opinion as this total has climbed a number of points since opening. The Jets offense went from lifeless to inspired thanks to a stunningly sharp performance from QB Zach Wilson against the mighty Chiefs last Sunday night. Meanwhile, the Broncos hung 34 points on the lowly Bears in a massive come-from-behind victory in the Windy City. I'm taking both of those results with a grain of salt, however, as I believe the jury is still out as to how efficient or explosive these two offenses can be. The Jets aren't going to win many games pinning their hopes on an offense that has been of the pop-gun variety at best so far this season. I wouldn't anticipate them opening up the playbook too wide for Wilson in a hostile environment against an opportunistic Broncos defense on Sunday. On the flip side, Denver's furious rally last week came against a hapless Bears defense. I expect the Broncos to go back to a rather conservative offensive gameplan against an elite Jets defense. Note that these two teams just met here in Denver last October with New York prevailing in a 16-9 slugfest. Two years ago on this same field, the Broncos pitched a shutout in a 26-point rout. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 24-11 with the Jets playing on the road off three or more consecutive losses with that situation producing an average total of just 36.3 points. Better still, the 'under' is 15-2 with Denver coming off three straight games in which it allowed 25 or more points, as is the case here, leading to just 38.3 total points on average in that spot. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-08-23 | Texans v. Falcons -1.5 | Top | 19-21 | Win | 100 | 26 h 26 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Falcons have to be disappointed with their 2-2 start after starting the season by reeling off consecutive victories. They were hampered by more mistakes from QB Desmond Ridder last Sunday in London, dropping a lopsided decision against Jacksonville. I do expect them to 'get right' back at home on Sunday as they host the upstart Texans. Houston started the campaign with back-to-back losses but has since evened its record at 2-2 thanks to upset wins over the Jaguars and Steelers. I simply feel it is going to have a difficult time moving the football, let alone scoring against an underrated Falcons defense this week. Consider this Texans QB C.J. Stroud's 'welcome to the NFL' moment as he gets checked by Atlanta after turning heads over the last two games. Falcons fans have been calling for backup QB Taylor Heinicke to take over under center but I expect him to be stuck warming the bench for at least one more week. Too much Bijan Robinson and too much Atlanta defense in this spot. Take Atlanta (10*). | |||||||
10-08-23 | Panthers +10 v. Lions | 24-42 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Carolina plus the points over Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Panthers check into this road tilt sporting an 0-4 record with QB Bryce Young struggling in his rookie campaign. I think Carolina's offense can get going a little bit in favorable conditions indoors in Detroit on Sunday while we'll gladly fade the Lions coming off consecutive double-digit victories. The Packers didn't look ready for the Lions at all in last week's matchup and Detroit ultimately rolled to a 14-point victory. While Detroit is now 3-1 on the season, it's worth noting that it has gone a long-term 22-42 ATS when coming off three victories in its last four games, outscored by an average margin of 3.7 points in that situation. The Panthers on the other hand have been outscored by a minuscule average margin of 0.8 points the last 66 times they've come off three ATS defeats in their last four contests, as is the case here. These two teams just met last Christmas Eve with the Panthers prevailing by a decisive 37-23 margin. For whatever reason, Carolina seems to match up well with Detroit, taking three of four matchups since 2017 with its lone loss over that stretch coming by a single point here in the Motor City in 2018. Take Carolina (8*). | |||||||
10-08-23 | Titans -2.5 v. Colts | Top | 16-23 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 4 m | Show |
AFC South Game of the Month. My selection is on Tennessee minus the points over Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Titans have owned the Colts lately taking five straight meetings in this series and I don't think that winning streak will be in jeopardy on Sunday afternoon in Indianapolis. While the case can be made that Tennessee is ripe for a letdown off last week's dismantling of Cincinnati at home, I think it's more likely we finally see some consistency from Mike Vrable's squad. The Colts defensive warts finally showed in last week's 29-23 overtime loss against the Rams. That game wasn't close for the first half before Indianapolis staged a furious second half rally. Colts QB Anthony Richardson is the real deal but he doesn't have many weapons at his disposal just yet. RB Jonathan Taylor is expected to make his season debut on Sunday but he'll likely be on a 'pitch count'. Yeah, this is a team with a lot of 'but's' at this point. The Titans run defense has been incredibly stingy, limiting opponents to just 2.9 yards per rush this season. On the flip side, Tennessee's vaunted ground attack should feast with help on the way on the offensive line in the form of Peter Skoronski and Nicholas Petit-Frere. Take Tennessee (10*). | |||||||
10-08-23 | Saints v. Patriots OVER 39 | 34-0 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and New England at 1 pm et on Sunday. I understand the logic behind the low posted total in this matchup between two lukewarm (at best) offenses. With that said, I think we're in for a higher-scoring affair than most are expecting. The Patriots are severely depleted due to injuries on the defensive side of the football. We're talking about a who's who of Pats defenders that will be forced to miss Sunday's contest including DE Matt Judon and CB Christian Gonzalez. That opens the door for a tentative Saints offense to enjoy a breakout performance here. The question becomes whether the Patriots offense can hold up its end of the bargain. Counting on point production from this unit has been dicey at best this season but I do think coming off an embarrassing 38-3 loss in Dallas last week we will see the Patriots provide an answer offensively back at home. There's enough talent on this New England offense to produce more than the 55 points it has put up through four games (combined). The Saints defense has looked elite but let's pump the brakes a bit here, noting they've still allowed at least 15 points in all four games and haven't exactly faced a slate of offensive juggernauts, going up against Tennessee and Tampa Bay at home and Carolina and Green Bay on the road. In nine all-time meetings in this particular series we've seen a scoring floor of 41 points and a ceiling of 57. That's good enough for me as this one finds its way 'over' the total. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
10-07-23 | Kentucky v. Georgia -14.5 | 13-51 | Win | 100 | 49 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on Georgia minus the points over Kentucky at 7 pm et on Saturday. This game will get top billing thanks to the fact that both teams enter with flawless records. I expect it to be no contest, however, as Georgia proves why it is the 'Big Dawg' so to speak in SEC play. Kentucky threw a knockout punch early against Florida last week, ultimately sending the Gators spiralling down the drain in what turned out to be a rather lifeless performance. The Wildcats aren't likely to catch the Bulldogs off guard here though, not after giving them all they could handle in a 16-6 loss last season. Georgia is off to a disappointing 0-4-1 ATS start but it's worth noting that it was favored by 40 or more points in three of those games. This is the part of the schedule where I expect the Dawgs to really get rolling as they play three of their next five games in Athens with a showdown with the rival Gators in Jacksonville mixed in. Kentucky can get right back on track next week as it hosts Missouri, but here I look for it to come away looking rather ordinary. Note that Georgia is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games as a favorite priced between 10.5 and 21 points, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 29.8 points along the way. Take Georgia (8*). | |||||||
10-07-23 | Phillies v. Braves -195 | 3-0 | Loss | -195 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta over Philadelphia at 6:05 pm et on Saturday. I expect plenty of runs on the board as the Braves send Spencer Strider to the hill against Ranger Suarez in Game 1 of this NLDS on Saturday. Current Braves hitters have actually been held at bay to a certain extent by Suarez, combining to go 27-for-113 (.239). However, four different Braves have homered off of the left-hander previously and I believe a number of bats in their lineup are in line for some positive regression here. Note that Michael Harris in particular is just 1-for-13 against Suarez but hasn't really been getting fooled, striking out only twice. That's a common theme. As a whole, the Braves have struck out just 23 times while walking 16 times against Suarez. Compare that to Spencer Strider against current Phillies hitters. Strider has held the Philadelphia bats to a 25-for-146 (.171) ledger at the dish, racking up a whopping 60 strikeouts while walking only 10. With that said, four different Phillies hitters have also homered off of Strider. If the Braves have an achilles heel it's their bullpen as they've blown 13 saves at home this season and rate out poorly in terms of hits and home runs allowed. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is a long-term 151-111 with the Phillies coming off a win over a division opponent in which they allowed one run or less, leading to an average total of 9.5 runs in that situation while the 'over' is 21-8 with the Braves at home seeking revenge for a one-run loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 10.6 runs. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
10-07-23 | Phillies v. Braves OVER 8.5 | 3-0 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Philadelphia at 6:05 pm et on Saturday. I expect plenty of runs on the board as the Braves send Spencer Strider to the hill against Ranger Suarez in Game 1 of this NLDS on Saturday. Current Braves hitters have actually been held at bay to a certain extent by Suarez, combining to go 27-for-113 (.239). However, four different Braves have homered off of the left-hander previously and I believe a number of bats in their lineup are in line for some positive regression here. Note that Michael Harris in particular is just 1-for-13 against Suarez but hasn't really been getting fooled, striking out only twice. That's a common theme. As a whole, the Braves have struck out just 23 times while walking 16 times against Suarez. Compare that to Spencer Strider against current Phillies hitters. Strider has held the Philadelphia bats to a 25-for-146 (.171) ledger at the dish, racking up a whopping 60 strikeouts while walking only 10. With that said, four different Phillies hitters have also homered off of Strider. If the Braves have an achilles heel it's their bullpen as they've blown 13 saves at home this season and rate out poorly in terms of hits and home runs allowed. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is a long-term 151-111 with the Phillies coming off a win over a division opponent in which they allowed one run or less, leading to an average total of 9.5 runs in that situation while the 'over' is 21-8 with the Braves at home seeking revenge for a one-run loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 10.6 runs. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
10-07-23 | Virginia Tech v. Florida State -24 | 17-39 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Florida State minus the points over Virginia Tech at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. The Hokies are coming off a blowout win over a disappointing Pittsburgh squad last week so it may appear to be a bargain catching 3+ touchdowns as they go up against Florida State on Saturday. The Seminoles, however, are coming off their bye week and one of the best teams in the entire nation. I expect Florida State to make yet another statement here. Keep in mind, Virginia Tech has lost its two previous road games by 19 points at Rutgers and seven points at Marshall. The Hokies are in a bit of a state of flux right now with QB Grant Wells nursing an injury and ineffective at the best of times. Virginia Tech has completed fewer than 20 passes in all five games so far this season and that's telling when you consider it has been playing from behind most of the way. Look for the 'Noles to get whatever they want on offense en route to a lopsided victory. Take Florida State (8*). | |||||||
10-07-23 | Washington State v. UCLA -3 | Top | 17-25 | Win | 100 | 45 h 24 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Month. My selection is on UCLA minus the points over Washington State at 3 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams enter this game off their bye week. I think it came at precisely the right time for Chip Kelly's Bruins as they had plenty to sort out following an ugly 14-7 road loss against Utah. Meanwhile, Washington State probably wanted to keep its foot on the gas after a red hot 4-0 start that included a thrilling 38-35 home win over Oregon State on September 23rd. It's tough for the betting marketplace to glean much from UCLA's 3-1 start. The wins were of the lukewarm variety over Coastal Carolina and San Diego State before a predictable blowout victory over FCS opponent N.C. Central. This is obviously a key spot for the Bruins before heading out on the road for consecutive games against Oregon State and Stanford where a split is likely the best they can hope for. For Washington State, it gets a winnable home date with Arizona next before travelling to face Oregon in a tough matchup. I think UCLA has an offense that will rip off plenty of big plays against a beatable Washington State defense on Saturday. While I do like the Cougars pass rush, we can anticipate the Bruins offensive line turning in a strong bounce-back showing off the poor performance against Utah. Take UCLA (10*). | |||||||
10-07-23 | Maryland v. Ohio State -19.5 | 17-37 | Win | 100 | 42 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Ohio State minus the points over Maryland at 12 noon et on Saturday. While Maryland enters this contest sporting a perfect 5-0 record, I think this is the game where its offensive line woes come home to roost, so to speak. The Terrapins have reeled off three straight ATS victories but will be taking a step up in class after lining up against Virginia, Michigan State and Indiana over the last three weeks. Meanwhile, Ohio State comes in fresh off its bye week, which came on the heels of a war against Notre Dame in South Bend - a game which the Buckeyes won by a score of 17-14. This game figures to be of the higher-scoring variety and that should favor Ohio State as Maryland simply doesn't have the horses to keep up in a potential shootout. I am high on Terps QB Taulia Tagovailoa, even going so far as to say he's one of, if not the most underrated quarterback in the country this year. With that said, I expect him to be under duress for most of the game on Saturday. The Terps have benefited from a whopping 12 turnovers by the opposition already this season. The shoe will be on the other foot on Saturday. Note that Maryland is a long-term 19-34 ATS when coming off a home win over a conference opponent, as is the case here. Take Ohio State (8*). | |||||||
10-06-23 | Nebraska v. Illinois -3.5 | Top | 20-7 | Loss | -105 | 84 h 31 m | Show |
Big Ten Game of the Year. My selection is on Illinois minus the points over Nebraska at 8 pm et on Friday. The Illinois bandwagon cleared following its 34-23 road loss against Kansas back in Week 2 (also on a Friday night). Since then, the Illini have done nothing to win bettors back, sandwiching lopsided defeats against Penn State and Purdue around a narrow home win over Florida Atlantic. I do see this as a 'get right' game for the Illini off last week's beatdown at the hands of Purdue. Illinois has a lot more going for it than Nebraska right now in my opinion. We've seen the Illini turn the tables on the Cornhuskers over the last few seasons, reeling off three straight wins in this series after dropping four in a row previously. I don't believe this is the Huskers squad to turn the tide in this series. Nebraska gave QB Heinrich Haarberg the start against Michigan last Saturday after he turned in an eye-popping performance against Louisiana Tech. The problem is, much of his success has come on the ground, not through the air. Michigan laid out a pretty good blueprint for stopping Haarberg last Saturday, as he was sacked four times and gained -2 yards on nine rush attempts. He has now completed just 38-of-72 passes this season. The Illini have a true dual-threat quarterback in Luke Altmyer. He was lifted for backup John Paddock late in last week's game at Purdue after the Boilermakers raced out to an insurmountable lead in the third quarter. I like the bounce-back spot for Altmyer and the Illini as a whole on Friday. WR Isaiah Williams has gotten going over the last couple of games, racking up 233 receiving yards on 14 catches. He's capable of laying waste to a Huskers defense that was dusted for 170 yards by Colorado WR Xavier Weaver earlier this season. Take Illinois (10*). | |||||||
10-05-23 | Bears v. Commanders OVER 44 | Top | 40-20 | Win | 100 | 36 h 15 m | Show |
TNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Washington at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. When these two teams met on a Thursday night last season, the result was a predictable snoozefest that went Washington's way by a score of 12-7. While few are expecting much entertainment from this Thursday's rematch, I actually think we could be in for some offensive fireworks. Both teams thrived offensively last Sunday with both falling a field goal short, albeit in much different fashion. The Bears coughed up a three-touchdown lead in an eventual 34-31 loss to the Broncos, at home no less. Meanwhile, the Commanders gave the mighty Eagles all they could handle on the road in a 31-28 overtime defeat. Chicago's offense sputtered in this matchup last year but should confidently attack a leaky Commanders back-end on Thursday with QB Justin Fields coming off a confidence-building performance against Denver. While the Bears offensive line has been downright offensive so far this season, help is on the way in the form of left guard Teven Jenkins, who is expected to return from a calf injury. Washington has been wildly inconsistent on offense. That's quite simply what you're going to get with Sam Howell as your starting quarterback. I do think we'll see the Commanders get whatever they want on the ground in this game with the underrated RB duo of Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson poised to go off against a Charmin-soft Bears defensive front. Likely to have plenty of time to operate in the pocket, Howell figures to take his shots against an injury-depleted Bears secondary as well. Chicago is allowing a ridiculous 8.4 yards per pass attempt this season. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is a perfect 6-0 with the Bears playing on the road off two or more consecutive ATS losses over the last three seasons, as is the situation here, with that spot producing an average total of 53.9 points. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-05-23 | Western Kentucky v. Louisiana Tech OVER 59 | 35-28 | Win | 100 | 60 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Western Kentucky and Louisiana Tech at 8 pm et on Thursday. Last week's potential shootout involving Western Kentucky fizzled as Middle Tennessee State couldn't get anything going offensively in what turned out to be a lopsided affair. Here, I do expect that shootout to develop as the Hilltoppers head out on the road to face Louisiana Tech in Ruston on Thursday. While the Bulldogs allowed just 10 points in last week's victory, that came against one of the weakest offenses in the country in UTEP. They'll be facing a much different animal this week as Western Kentucky has displayed a sky-high scoring ceiling this season, putting up 41, 52, 10 (against Ohio State), 24 and 31 points. Note that Louisiana Tech allowed three touchdowns over a 14-minute stretch against a lukewarm Nebraska offense just two weeks ago. The Bulldogs also gave up 40 points against North Texas and 38 against SMU earlier this season. The question is whether Louisiana Tech can ramp up its own offense to keep pace. It remains up in the air whether QB Hank Bachmeier can return from injury for Louisiana Tech this week. Even if he can't go, I think Jack Turner can get the offense going in his third consecutive start. We saw positive flashes in that aforementioned game against Nebraska as he threw for 292 yards and a score while also gaining positive yardage on the ground. The Bulldogs do have gamebreakers around Turner in RB Tyre Shelton (104 rush yards on 16 carries last week) and Ole Miss transfer WR Smoke Harris. (returned a punt for a touchdown last week). Take the over (8*). | |||||||
10-04-23 | Jacksonville State v. Middle Tennessee State -3.5 | Top | 45-30 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 14 m | Show |
Conference-USA Game of the Month. My selection is on Middle Tennessee State minus the points over Jacksonville State at 8 pm et on Wednesday. Middle Tennessee State got punched in the mouth on the road against Western Kentucky last week and ultimately couldn't overcome an off night from QB Nicholas Vattiato in a 31-10 defeat. The Blue Raiders are now just 1-4 on the season making this virtually a must-win game if they want to sniff out Bowl eligibility with seven games remaining on the schedule. Jacksonville State is well on its way in its first year of FBS play, reeling off four wins in its first five contests including an overtime victory at Sam Houston State last week. You know what you're going to get from the Gamecocks. They're going to run the football and look to create chaos on defense. The good news for the Blue Raiders is that stopping the run has been their calling card under long-time head coach Rick Stockstill (they've yielded a mediocre 4.1 yards per rush this season). This was always going to be a critical two-game road stretch for Jacksonville State and it has already earned at least a split. It's an equally critical two-game homestand for Middle Tennessee State with a matchup against a sneaky-good Louisiana Tech squad on deck next week. I think the Blue Raiders have a lot more upside on offense than they showed against a good Western Kentucky team last week. Their ground game has just gotten going recently, ripping off 217, 151 and 127 rushing yards over their last three games. Jacksonville State is up-and-coming but Middle Tennessee State has been doing it at this level for years, reaching eight Bowl games in the last 13 years including each of the last two (it defeated San Diego State in the Hawaii Bowl last year). This may be a bit of a rebuilding year for the Blue Raiders but I expect them to rise to the occasion at home on Wednesday. Take Middle Tennessee State (10*). | |||||||
10-04-23 | Rangers v. Rays OVER 8 | 7-1 | Push | 0 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Texas and Tampa Bay at 3:05 pm et on Wednesday. Nathan Eovaldi will get the start for the Rangers on Wednesday as they try to eliminate the Rays and advance to an ALDS matchup with the Orioles. The good news is, Texas' scoring floor has been fairly solid in this particular matchup this season as it has produced at least three runs in seven previous matchups, averaging 4.4 runs per game along the way. I do think the Rays hold up their end of the bargain offensively on Wednesday as well, though, following yesterday's embarrassing shutout loss. Eovaldi was a mess down the stretch in the regular season. He returned from injury at the beginning of September and proceeded to allow 21 earned runs in six starts, spanning 20 1/3 innings of work. The 'over' went 4-1-1 in those six contests. Zach Eflin will counter for Tampa Bay. He showed signs of wearing down in September, lasting just five innings in four of his last five starts, allowing 12 earned runs in 27 innings over that stretch. Neither bullpen impresses me all that much, noting that the two teams have combined to blow 56 saves this season with both getting bitten by the long ball on a consistent basis. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
10-03-23 | Rangers v. Rays -146 | 4-0 | Loss | -146 | 18 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Texas at 3:05 pm et on Tuesday. Rangers starter Jordan Montgomery pitched exceptionally well down the stretch, allowing just two earned runs over his last four starts. He's made 14 career starts against the Rays and hasn't fared well, however, posting a 4.93 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. Current Tampa Bay hitters have had plenty of success against the left-hander, batting just shy of .300 in 84 at-bats with six home runs. Rays starter Tyler Glasnow will be pleased to be facing the Rangers as he owns a 0.46 ERA and 0.56 WHIP, albeit in just three career outings against them. Glasnow also checks in sporting a 3.18 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in 10 home starts this season. The bullpens are virtually a wash with one important exception. The Rangers have converted just 30 saves this season while blowing an identical 30. Meanwhile, the Rays 'pen has converted 45 saves while blowing only 26. This series won't be a walk for Tampa Bay but I do expect it to gain the upper hand in Game 1 on Tuesday. Take Tampa Bay (8*). | |||||||
10-02-23 | Seahawks -1 v. Giants | Top | 24-3 | Win | 100 | 22 h 60 m | Show |
NFC Game of the Week. My selection is on Seattle minus the points over New York at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I know the case can be made to back a desperate Giants squad as they return home licking their wounds following a dismantling at the hands of the mighty 49ers last week. After all, New York has had a couple of extra days of preparation and also has the 'revenge' angle working its favor after dropping a 27-13 decision in Seattle last year. I'm not ready to buy in, however. New York will be without RB Saquon Barkley. He obviously means a lot to the Giants offense but not just for his running and catching ability but also as a pass blocker. In fact, Barkley ranked tops among all running backs in pass-blocking grade according to Pro Football Focus last season. Without Barkley, the Giants will have a tough time staying ahead of the chains and ultimately chewing clock in an effort to effectively shorten proceedings on Monday. The Seahawks got off to a tough start this season with a blowout loss at home against the Rams. Of course, the Rams have turned out to be a more competitive team than most expected. Since then, Seattle has reeled off consecutive wins over the Lions and Panthers. Now it will look to keep it rolling as Geno Smith sets up in a 'revenge' spot of his own in his old stomping grounds at Met Life Stadium. There's a lot to like about the Seahawks on both sides of the football, and it sounds like they'll be getting some key pieces back healthy on the defensive side of the football this week. Take Seattle (10*). | |||||||
10-01-23 | Cardinals v. 49ers -14 | 16-35 | Win | 100 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Arizona at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. The Cardinals have been front-running throughout the majority of their first three games this season, unbelievably so. We haven't really seen how they operate when playing from behind but we're likely to see that on Sunday in Santa Clara and the results likely won't be pretty. We haven't seen the 49ers as healthy as they've been this season in a long time. The results have been staggering as they've outscored the opposition by a combined 90-42 margin through their first three contests. While this pointspread may seem lofty at first glance, keep in mind, the Niners have gone an incredible 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 16.6 points in that situation. Last year this matchup was no contest with San Francisco winning by 28 and 25 points. Take San Francisco (8*). | |||||||
10-01-23 | Raiders +6 v. Chargers | 17-24 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Las Vegas plus the points over Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. Everyone is down on the Raiders right now. Perhaps for good reason. With that being said, I'm not ready to buy in to the Chargers, not after they earned just their first win in three tries this season last week in Minnesota. Las Vegas won't have the services of QB Jimmy Garoppolo for this game. Are Brian Hoyer or Aidan O'Connell really a considerable downgrade? This game should be all about pounding away with RB Josh Jacobs anyway (the Chargers are giving up 4.4 yards per rush), perhaps with some splash plays mixed in to WR Davante Adams. The Chargers lost WR Mike Williams in last week's victory in Minnesota and will likely be without RB Austin Ekeler once again here as well. Of course those injuries have been factored into this line. However, I think the Raiders are being knocked for being away from home, yet they have little to no home field advantage to begin with (nor do the Chargers). Note that Los Angeles has averaged a woeful 18.6 points and has been outscored by an average margin of 3.8 points when coming off a win by six points or less over the last 2+ seasons (that situation has come up 12 times over that stretch). The Chargers will be looking for revenge here after dropping the most recent meeting between these two teams last December but I think that angle is overplayed in this particular matchup. The last seven times Los Angeles has sought revenge in this series it has lost by three, lost by three, lost by three, won by one, lost by seven, lost by five and won by five. Take Las Vegas (8*). | |||||||
10-01-23 | Ravens +2 v. Browns | Top | 28-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 23 m | Show |
AFC North Game of the Year. My selection is on Baltimore plus the points over Cleveland at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Ravens are coming off an embarrassing showing at home against the Colts last Sunday. The sky is not falling in Baltimore though as the Ravens remain 2-1 to start the season, good enough for a tie for top spot in the AFC North. Here, Baltimore has an opportunity to make a statement on the road against a Browns squad that is off to a perfect 2-0 start at home. The Ravens last played here last December and were unable to complete the season sweep, dropping an ugly 13-3 decision. It's worth noting that Cleveland hasn't won consecutive matchups in this series since way back in 2007. I like the notion of Todd Monken drawing up a far more effective offensive gameplan for Lamar Jackson and the Ravens after last week's debacle against the Colts. He'll certainly need to do that given how stout the Browns have been on defense so far this season. I'm not particularly high on Cleveland's offense, certainly without RB Nick Chubb. Chubb's absence wasn't really felt last Sunday as the Browns were able to control proceedings from the get-go against the Titans. This week, Chubb will be missed. Note that the Ravens have held up tremendously well in pass defense this season, allowing just 4.7 yards per pass attempt. Needless to say, Deshaun Watson doesn't instill a great deal of confidence as a passer right now. The Ravens check in a long-term 36-18 ATS as a road underdog of a field goal or less, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 2.9 points along the way while the Browns are a miserable 12-28 ATS in their last 40 games after a win by 14+ points, outscored by 6.5 points on average in that spot. Take Baltimore (10*). | |||||||
10-01-23 | Broncos v. Bears UNDER 46.5 | Top | 31-28 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 48 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Chicago at 1 pm et on Sunday. I think both of these defenses are being lumped into the 'bad' category three games into the season but I'm not sure it's warranted. The Broncos got schooled by the Dolphins explosive offense last Sunday, allowing a ridiculous 70 points in a 50-point defeat. Meanwhile, the Bears gave up 41 points on the road against the Chiefs. Here, both defenses catch a break as we're talking about two of the slowest and most punchless offenses in the entire league. Broncos head coach Sean Payton clearly isn't comfortable dialing up many aggressive plays down the field for QB Russell Wilson. The same goes for the Bears with QB Justin Fields as they continue to waste his talent with tentative play-calling. I can't help but feel we're in for a game where the two offenses move up and down the field but accomplish very little on the scoreboard Sunday afternoon. Keep in mind, the last three meetings in this series have produced 23, 32 and 30 total points. The 'under' is a long-term 41-16 with the Bears playing at home as an underdog of three points or less, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 37.2 points scored in that situation. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-01-23 | Falcons v. Jaguars -3 | 7-23 | Win | 100 | 16 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Jacksonville minus the points over Atlanta at 9:30 am et on Sunday. The Jaguars got stomped at home against the Texans last Sunday. I'm not sure that result was as unexpected as most believe as Houston has owned that series and the Jags have traditionally struggled in the role of home favorite. Here, I look for Jacksonville to bounce back as it faces Atlanta in London. The Falcons stumbled to their first loss of the young season in Detroit last Sunday as they couldn't get anything going offensively. I'm not convinced Atlanta QB Desmond Ridder is long for the starting job and the Lions laid out a pretty good blueprint for shutting down the Falcons offense - one that the Jags are capable of replicating on Sunday. Jacksonville's offense is far better than it showed last Sunday. Keep in mind, even on a bad day it still racked up over 400 total yards with two turnovers playing a factor. The game has come easy for Falcons rookie RB Bijan Robinson so far but he'll run into a Jags defense that has yielded just 3.4 yards per rush this season. While motivation rarely plays a quantifiable role in the end result when it comes to the NFL, the Jags can ill afford to drop another game here, noting that they'll face the Bills next. Atlanta gets three straight winnable games next, hosting Houston and Washington before travelling to face Tampa Bay. Take Jacksonville (8*). |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ricky Tran | $756 |
ProSportsPicks | $632 |
Joseph D'Amico | $510 |
Joey Tron | $450 |
Tom Macrina | $399 |
Nick Parsons | $344 |
Sean Murphy | $306 |
Jack Jones | $303 |
William Burns | $233 |
Dan Kaiser | $220 |