Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09-03-21 | Montreal v. Ottawa OVER 42.5 | Top | 51-29 | Win | 100 | 34 h 22 m | Show |
CFL East Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Montreal and Ottawa at 7:30 pm et on Friday. With both teams coming off dismal offensive performances last week I think most bettors will be looking to back the 'under' in this matchup of 1-2 teams on Friday night. I'll go the other way as I believe we're being afforded a very reasonable total in a game where we can expect to see some progression from both offenses. The Alouettes actually have one of the more aggressive downfield passing games in the league led by QB Vernon Adams Jr. They ran into a tough matchup last week with the Ti-Cats heading into Montreal sporting an 0-2 record. Hamilton is of course an elite team and played with a real edge, particularly on the defensive side of the football. While Ottawa has posted some excellent numbers defensively in the early going this season, we're not talking about an elite defense in my opinion. It's had more to do with game flow as a result of its own punchless offense as far as I'm concerned. Here, I do think we'll see the RedBlacks get a spark offensively with head coach Paul LaPolice hinting at backup QB Dominique Davis possibly being worked into the gameplan with Matt Nichols struggling. With the Ottawa ground game stalled and starter Timothy Flanders battling an injury we should see the RedBlacks air it out more often than usual in this one. Both teams are in desperate need of a victory off consecutive losses and with that in mind, I look for both offenses to take a few more chances than they otherwise would, leading to a higher-scoring game than most are anticipating. Keep in mind, the last time these two teams met they combined to score a whopping 74 points back in 2019. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-03-21 | Indians v. Red Sox UNDER 9 | Top | 5-8 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
American League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Boston at 7:10 pm et on Friday. If we're going to play an 'under' at this stage of the MLB season, we want to do so in situations where both starters are capable of working deep into the game as bullpens are usually overworked by this point and tend to be unreliable. That makes this play appealing as both Indians starter Cal Quantrill and Red Sox starter Nathan Eovaldi certainly fit the bill. Quantrill has worked at least six innings in seven of his last eight starts overall and has the benefit of pitching on a full five days' rest here. He's been a completely different pitcher since the second week of July, allowing more than a single earned run just three times in his last 10 outings. The 'under' has cashed in each of his last nine trips to the hill. Meanwhile, Nathan Eovaldi has worked at least into the sixth inning in eight of his last 11 starts and into the seventh inning in five consecutive outings at home. He's been solid at Fenway Park all season, recording a 2.90 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. Like Quantrill, he'll be pitching on a full five days' rest here, noting that the two starters just matched up in Cleveland last week with that game totaling eight runs. Note that two of the Indians best hitters, Jose Ramirez and Franmil Reyes are currently mired in 0-for-11 and 0-for-14 slumps at the plate, respectively. As for the bullpens, they've combined to record seven saves while blowing only two over their last eight games. With both teams playing well right now, I'm anticipating a tightly-contested, relatively low-scoring affair on a cool September night at Fenway Park. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-03-21 | Twins v. Rays OVER 9 | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Tampa Bay at 7:10 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams are coming off consecutive low-scoring games. With a subpar pitching matchup on tap Friday night, I'm expecting a different story to unfold. Note that the 'over' is a perfect 9-0 with the Twins playing on the road off consecutive games where they plated three runs or less, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 13.9 runs. The 'over' has also gone 31-9 with Minnesota having lost three of its last four contests this season with that spot producing an average total of 10.8 runs. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 17-7 with the Rays playing with 'double revenge' this season, good for an average total of 9.6 runs. The 'over' has also cashed at a 15-6 clip with the Rays coming off a game where four or less total runs were scored this season, as is the case here. That situation has produced an average total of 9.2 runs. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
09-03-21 | Phillies v. Marlins OVER 7.5 | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Miami at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The Phillies are desperately trying to stay in the N.L. playoff race but they've by no means tightened things up, with a number of recent slugfests. I expect another similarly high-scoring result on Friday night in Miami. The 'over' has gone 11-2 with the Phillies coming off three or more consecutive 'over' results this season, as is the case here, good for an average total of 11.3 runs scored in that spot. Meanwhile, the 'over' is an incredible 10-1 with the Marlins coming off three or more consecutive 'under' results over the last three seasons. That situation has produced a whopping average total of 13 runs - nearly double the total we're working with tonight. Both starting pitchers are coming off outings in which they didn't allow a single run. That changes here. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
09-03-21 | Mets v. Nationals OVER 9 | 6-2 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Friday. I'm expecting a high-scoring affair in the nation's capital on Friday night as the suddenly surging Mets open a series against the reeling Nationals. Note that the 'over' has gone 11-2 with the Nats coming off three straight losses against division opponents over the last two seasons with that situation producing an average total of 12.5 runs. We've also seen the 'over' cash at an incredible 10-1 clip with the Mets playing on the road off a one-run win over a division opponent over the last three seasons with that spot resulting in an average total of 11.7 runs. Finally, the 'over' is 25-13 with the Mets playing as a road favorite priced -110 or higher over the last two seasons, good for an average total of 9.8 runs. Take the over (9*). | |||||||
09-03-21 | North Carolina -5 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 10-17 | Loss | -110 | 103 h 14 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on North Carolina minus the points over Virginia Tech at 6 pm et on Friday. A trip to Blacksburg isn't nearly as daunting as it once was. I love the way this one sets up for the Tar Heels who have their sights set on some lofty goals once again this season. North Carolina loses plenty of talent to the NFL - that's simply the sign of a great college team. The best programs don't need to rebuild, they simply reload, and I think that's the case with Mack Brown's Tar Heels. QB Sam Howell is back to run the offense and despite losing a host of talent at the running back and wide receiver positions, I expect this high-octane attack to keep humming along. This is obviously a big season for Howell as he's likely to be a highly-touted NFL draft pick next spring. First things first, he looks to guide this Tar Heels squad to another stellar campaign. While plenty of names have moved on, the cupboard is by no means bare. RB Ty Chandler transfers in from Tennessee and should run wild behind an offensive line that was terrific at opening up holes for the ground game last season and returns all five starters this year. There are questions at the wide receiver position but this is very much a 'plug-and-play' type offense and there's a host of talented receivers that have simply been waiting for their opportunity to step out of the shadows and into the spotlight. It shouldn't take long for this offense to start piling up points. The Tar Heels defense loses standout LB Chazz Surratt but that's about it. There's talent and experience all over the field. While the North Carolina offense gets all the press, the defense can play as well and I expect it to come out and make a statement against an overmatched Hokies offense here. Virginia Tech has managed to go just 19-18 SU over the last three seasons under head coach Justin Fuente. Keep in mind, the Hokies went 19-8 in Fuente's first two seasons as he reaped the benefits of Frank Beamer recruits. If it weren't for standout RB Khalil Herbert, the Hokies probably wouldn't have won five games last year. He's gone so now someone else will need to step up. Unfortunately, the Hokies don't have the benefit of a transfer like Chandler for the Tar Heels. The biggest issue might be on the offensive line where Virginia Tech lost two of its best starters to the transfer portal. It's going to take some time for the new look o-line to come together - the problem is the Hokies won't have the benefit of time here in Week 1 as the Tar Heels are capable of scoring in bunches. Virginia Tech's defense returns just six starters from a year ago. This simply isn't the same feared Hokies defense from the Frank Beamer era. Last season, Virginia Tech gave up just shy of 450 total yards per game and 32 points per contest. I'll admit, it's likely we'll see an improved defense here in 2021. Jordan Williams transfers in from Clemson to anchor the defensive line but there are still holes that I believe the Tar Heels will be able to expose over the course of four quarters on Friday. All of North Carolina's road games this season are winnable, with the toughest test coming at Notre Dame on the final Saturday in October. If the Tar Heels are going to reach their goals, they need to get off to a fast start and I'm certain the Hokies will have their full attention this week. Take North Carolina (10*). | |||||||
09-03-21 | North Carolina v. Virginia Tech UNDER 64.5 | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 101 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between North Carolina and Virginia Tech at 6 pm et on Friday. I believe the North Carolina defense has the chance to be good this season, really good. The headline-grabber is the loss of outstanding LB Chazz Surratt. However, virtually the entire starting defense outside of Surratt returns and I like the way the Tar Heels are built from the back in, with an outstanding secondary, a loaded linebacking corps and a solid defensive line that might give up some yards on the ground, but will put enough pressure on Virginia Tech QB Braxton Burmeister to make him uncomfortable for much of the night on Friday. The Hokies offense went as far as RB Khalil Herbert took them last year, as he ran for just under 1,200 yards - good for more than eight yards per rush. He's gone and now someone has to pick up the slack. Virginia Tech has a couple of excellent wide receivers in Tayvion Robinson and Tre Turner but will Burmeister have enough time in the pocket to find them downfield? That's a big question as the Hokies lost two of their best offensive linemen to transfers, not to mention Christian Darrisaw to the NFL. Expect to see Virginia Tech use its short to intermediate passing game to try to churn out long, clock-eating drives in this one in hopes of essentially shortening the game and keeping the ball out of the hands of the explosive North Carolina offense. The Tar Heels hung 56 points on the Hokies in last year's meeting. Needless to say, they'll have Virginia Tech's attention here in Week 1. The Hokies added Jordan Williams from Clemson and should at the very least be better defensively than they were at the tail-end of last season when they quite simply came unglued. They'll likely only be able to keep the Tar Heels offense at bay for so long, but that should be enough as we're dealing with a lofty total in the mid-60's at the time of writing. North Carolina's offense should be every bit as explosive as it was a year ago, even after losing a host of key performers to the NFL. It might just take a bit of time. Again, this total assumes the Tar Heels are going to come out in midseason form. Even if that is the case, it generally takes two to topple a total this high this early in the season. I believe it will prove too high. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-03-21 | Pirates v. Cubs UNDER 9 | 5-6 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Chicago at 2:20 pm et on Friday. We saw a wild, high-scoring extra innings affair between these two teams in last night's series-opener. With the park expected to play fairly neutral weather-wise on Friday, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring contest. Note that the 'under' is 13-2 in Pirates starter Stephen Brault's 15 starts since the start of last season with those games totaling an average of just 5.9 runs. He got lit up by the Cardinals in his most recent start but I expect a solid bounce-back performance here, noting that he's pitched 10 scoreless innings against the Cubs in two starts since the start of last season. Also note that the 'under' has gone 25-8 with the Cubs coming off four wins in their last five games over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an average total of just 6.8 runs. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-02-21 | Liberty v. Storm OVER 163.5 | 75-85 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Seattle at 10 pm et on Thursday. With the Storm coming off three straight losses - their longest such streak of the season - we can anticipate a big bounce-back performance here at home against the Liberty on Thursday night. While that could lead to them locking in defensively, I believe there's a better chance we see the Seattle offense go off in what should turn out to be a high-scoring affair. Note that Storm home games have totaled an average of 165.6 points this season with the 'over' holding a slightly 7-6 edge in their 13 games to date. The Liberty check in off consecutive awful offensive showings, putting up 64 and 66 points in losses to Phoenix and Minnesota, respectively. There's reason to believe they can bounce back here, noting that they scored exactly 83 points in both games during a 1-1 home split against the Storm in August. We've only seen New York held under 70 points in consecutive games on one previous occasion this season. That was right before the Olympic break. When it returned after the break it scored 78 points in its first game back, with that contest totaling 166 points in Minnesota. Note that five of the last seven meetings in this series have gone 'over' the total with the 'over' holding a 12-9 edge in 21 meetings here in Seattle. Take the over (9*). | |||||||
09-02-21 | Brewers v. Giants -161 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 18 h 7 m | Show |
MLB Division Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco over Milwaukee at 3:45 pm et on Thursday. The Giants haven't exactly been at their best lately but with arguably the most underrated starter in baseball taking the mound for them in Logan Webb on Thursday afternoon, I look for them to get past Eric Lauer and the Brewers. First let's deal with Lauer. The Giants haven't seen him since 2019 when they faced the left-hander three times, clearly figuring him out over the last two of those games, scoring nine earned runs including three home runs in just 12 innings. Lauer hasn't worked beyond the fifth inning in any of his last five starts. While he's done a nice job of keeping the ball in the park, his command has been lacking lately as he's issued five walks in nine innings over his last two starts. The Brewers bullpen has been outstanding this season, with one exception. Milwaukee's relief corps has posted a less than impressive 4.26 ERA and 1.41 WHIP with 19 saves converted and 12 blown in day games. As I mentioned, Logan Webb is one of the most underrated starters in all of baseball, particularly here at home where he has posted a 1.75 ERA and 1.01 WHIP with the Giants winning all eight of his previous starts. Webb will be looking to exact a little revenge here. He pitched well, allowing only one earned run on three hits over six innings in Milwaukee back on August 6th but the Giants ultimately dropped that contest by a 2-1 score. Note that Webb brings fantastic form to the table having recorded a 1.33 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over his last three outings. The Giants bullpen has been at its best in day games this season, posting a collective 2.77 ERA and 0.99 WHIP with 18 saves converted and only six blown. Take San Francisco (10*). | |||||||
09-02-21 | Iraq v. South Korea -220 | 0-0 | Loss | -220 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on South Korea over Iraq at 7 am et on Thursday. This will without question be Iraq's toughest test in this World Cup Qualifying round and I expect it to ultimately fall short on Thursday. South Korea is brimming with talent, but perhaps a little overlooked when it comes to ranking soccer super powers. With its stars working their way toward being household names in the English Premier League, Iraq simply doesn't have the personnel to match. For Iraq to stay competitive for 90 minutes on Thursday it will need to bring its 'A' game defensively. While that may very well be the case, I can't help but feel there will eventually be a breakdown and South Korea is well-suited to take advantage. On the flip side, Iraq doesn't boast a whole lot of offensive firepower. It's difficult to envision it finding a marker at any point in this contest. Note that when we last saw South Korea in action in World Cup Qualifying action, it was breezing to three consecutive victories in June, scoring a whopping 12 goals in the process while conceding just one. That one goal allowed came on an early stunner against Lebanon last time out. Keep in mind, that was Lebanon's only shot on target in the entire match. With this match being played in Seoul the Iraqis are at a further disadvantage. The South Koreans that returned to home soil for this contest certainly won't want to leave the pitch without all three points. I'm confident they'll accomplish their goal of getting this stage off to a promising start. Take South Korea (8*). | |||||||
09-01-21 | Astros v. Mariners OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
A.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Seattle at 4:10 pm et on Wednesday. We've seen consecutive low-scoring games to open this series but I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday afternoon. Jake Odorizzi gets the nod for the Astros. He hasn't worked six innings in a start since way back on July 9th and that's telling. He hasn't been pitching particularly well, sporting a 1.50 WHIP over his last three starts. The Mariners have already got three previous looks at him this season and have had some success, collecting eight earned runs and delivering three home runs off of him. Note that the 'over' has cashed in six of his last eight starts overall with his last two outings against the Mariners totaling 16 and 15 runs. Logan Gilbert has seemingly hit the 'rookie wall' for the Mariners. He'll pitch on just four days' rest and make his sixth start since August 4th, having allowed a whopping 24 earned runs over his previous five including five home runs over his last three trips to the hill. The Astros just teed off on him back on August 21st, scoring nine earned runs on eight hits over just 4 2/3 innings in a 15-1 victory. Both bullpens are generally solid but check in having blown two saves apiece over their last seven games respectively. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-01-21 | Netherlands v. Norway OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -102 | 32 h 47 m | Show |
World Cup Qualifying 1H Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'over' 1.0 goal between Norway and the Netherlands at 2:45 pm et on Wednesday. I'm certain we'll see the Netherlands come in with the mindset that they need to find an early goal in this match as the longer it stays 0-0, the better the chances that Erling Haaland works his magic and pulls off a stunner for the underdog Norwegians. Of course, the Dutch are brimming with talent - that was on full display during Euro 2020, but unfortunately only in the group stage. After making an early exit at the hands of the Czechs (by way of a 2-0 shutout), the Netherlands will be eager to gain a positive result here. This is certainly a favorable matchup as while Norway does boast starpower in Haaland up front, it is not all that deep and should be hard-pressed to contend for 90 minutes. With that in mind, I don't believe Norway has the belief in itself to play for a 0-0 draw in this one. The Norwegians know that they'll need to take some chances in attack if they're to have any chance at stealing a point from the Netherlands. It's not as if the Dutch are invincible - noting that they suffered a 4-2 defeat at the hands of Turkey in World Cup Qualifying back in March. Norway has seen five first half goals in three previous World Cup Qualifying matches this year. Finding an early goal from one, if not both of these sides on Wednesday should not be difficult. I believe two first half markers is well within the realm of possibility. Take the first half over (10*). | |||||||
09-01-21 | Cardinals v. Reds -142 | 5-4 | Loss | -142 | 4 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cincinnati over St. Louis at 1:10 pm et on Wednesday. We were all set to fade the Cardinals last night before the game was postponed. We'll certainly do so again here in the first game of Wednesday's double-header as the starting pitching matchup is even more favorable for the Reds with Wade Miley going up against Miles Mikolas. Miley has been the picture of consistency. Back on July 9th he sported a 2.80 ERA. Fast forward nine starts and his ERA sits at 2.74. He brings excellent form to the table here having posted a 0.96 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over his last three outings - all Reds victories. Mikolas, meanwhile, makes just his fourth start after not starting a game since 2019 due to injury. He's held up alright but keep in mind, his first three outings this season have come against the lowly Cubs and Pirates (twice). Last time out he was actually on the losing end of an 11-7 game, allowing eight hits and three earned runs over just 4 1/3 innings in Pittsburgh. Take Cincinnati (6*). | |||||||
09-01-21 | Ukraine -207 v. Kazakhstan | 2-2 | Loss | -207 | 12 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Ukraine over Kazakhstan at 10 am et on Wednesday. These two nations just battled to a 1-1 draw in World Cup Qualifying back in March but that final score may have been a little misleading. The Ukraine actually fired 28 shots with 10 of them reaching target. It also owed a 71/29 edge in terms of ball possession. An early goal may have actually been the worst thing for the Ukrainians as they likely got a little ahead of themselves in a match they should have handled with relative ease. This is of course now a more battle-tested Ukrainian side following a solid showing at Euro 2020. Both squads are expected to be at full strength for this one but that favors Ukraine as it owns a significant talent edge. The Kazakhs are known for their ability to grind their opponent and ultimately be a tough out but I believe there's a class difference that simply isn't being properly represented, even with this price north of -200. Take Ukraine (8*). | |||||||
08-31-21 | Sky v. Mercury UNDER 164 | Top | 83-103 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
WNBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Phoenix at 10 pm et on Tuesday. The Sky are locked in defensively right now, fresh off holding the defending champion Seattle Storm to just 69 and 75 points in a two-game sweep in the Pacific Northwest. Meanwhile, Phoenix has scored 80 or more points in three straight games but that had more to do with the level of opposition it faced on its most recent road trip (against Atlanta and New York). Here, the Mercury will be up against a Chicago squad that allows just 76 points per game on 41.1% shooting on the road this season. Note that Phoenix could be without Brittney Griner for this game although we'll make the play on the assumption that she will play. The Sky lit up the Storm for 107 points last time out noting that the last time (and only other time this season) they scored over 100 points in a game they followed it up with a contest total totaled just 156 points. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
08-31-21 | Yankees -1.5 v. Angels | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
A.L. Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on New York -1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Tuesday. I love the way the Yankees are set up to bounce back from last night's series-opening loss here in Anaheim on Tuesday. In fact, New York has dropped three games in a row following an extended winning streak. Don't expect the Yanks losing ways to continue here as they look to tee off on Anaheim starter Jaime Barria. He's by no means a long-term solution in the Angels starting rotation. He's been used out of necessity this season, posting a 4.50 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. While those numbers aren't all bad, the wheels have come off lately as he has recorded a 9.72 ERA and 2.52 WHIP over his last three outings, covering a span of just 8 1/3 innings of work. Barria isn't fooling anyone right now, topping out at five strikeouts over his last seven starts. It's not as if the Halos bullpen is likely to rescue Barria here, noting that the L.A. relief corps has posted a collective 5.49 ERA and 1.45 WHIP over their last seven games. Jameson Taillon will take the ball for New York. Like Barria, he has struggled lately. However, he faces an Angels lineup that has been a true 'feast-or-famine' group lately. The Yankees check in 7-5 in Taillon's 12 road starts this season. The big difference here is that behind Taillon is a capable Yankees bullpen that has posted a 3.46 ERA and 1.17 WHIP with an incredible 24:7 save conversion ratio on the road this season. There's reason to believe the Yankees bats can eventually stretch out the winning margin in this one so we'll lay the extra run. Take New York -1.5 runs (10*). | |||||||
08-30-21 | Astros v. Mariners +1.5 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle +1.5 runs over Houston at 10:10 pm et on Monday. The Mariners picked up a much-needed victory to avoid a sweep at the hands of the Royals yesterday afternoon. Now I look for them to build some positive momentum as they open a home series against the Astros on Monday. Luis Garcia will get the nod for Houston. He's admittedly pitched well this season, but much of his success has come at home. In 11 road starts he has recorded a 4.97 ERA and 1.36 WHIP with the Astros winning just six of his 13 starts. Note that the M's will be seeing him for the third time this season and in their most recent look they got to him early and often, scoring five earned runs in 4 2/3 innings in an 11-8 victory here in Seattle. Chris Flexen, like Garcia, has also been better at home than on the road this season. Lately though, it hasn't mattered where he has pitched, he's been rock solid. Flexen has posted a 1.83 ERA and 0.97 WHIP over his last three outings - all Seattle victories. He is winless in two outings against Houston this season but catches the Astros at the right time here as they've plated just 26 runs over their last seven games combined. While the M's bullpen has quietly posted a 1.07 WHIP at home this season, the Astros 'pen has recorded a 1.50 WHIP on the road (entering yesterday's action). Take Seattle +1.5 runs (10*). | |||||||
08-30-21 | Brewers -125 v. Giants | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
N.L. Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee over San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Monday. | |||||||
08-30-21 | Padres -165 v. Diamondbacks | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego over Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Monday. The Padres got a much-needed day off on Sunday. Meanwhile, the D'Backs dropped their third straight game against the Phillies and haven't had an off day since August 16th. That leaves a bad Snakes bullpen in dire straights having already posted an awful 5.38 ERA and 1.53 WHIP with only 11 saves converted and 11 blown at home this season. First, they'll have to face Padres starter Chris Paddack, who returns from a stint on the I.L. He's been quietly terrific on the road this season, posting a 3.91 ERA and 1.03 WHIP with the Padres winning seven of his 10 starts. Before he got hurt, San Diego had won six of his last eight outings overall so perhaps he can step in and turn the tide for its fading playoff hopes here. Tyler Gilbert tossed a stunning no-hitter in his big league debut against these same Padres three starts back. He hasn't been able to follow that performance up, however, allowing six earned runs on 12 hits over his last two outings. I look for San Diego to exact a little revenge in this one. Take San Diego (9*). | |||||||
08-30-21 | Cardinals v. Reds -179 | 3-1 | Loss | -179 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cincinnati over St. Louis at 6:40 pm et on Monday. We followed Jon Lester's last start closely as we had an 'over' ticket in hand as the Cards hosted the Tigers. Detroit had little trouble putting runners on base but simply couldn't get the clutch hits it needed to truly get to Lester in that one. It doesn't change the fact that he's been awful this season. Lester checks in sporting a 6.15 ERA and 1.93 WHIP in eight road starts with his teams winning just three of those games. While the Cards are coming off a series win over the Pirates, they're essentially going nowhere while the Reds continue to battle for a playoff spot. Tonight's Cincinnati starter, Luis Castillo, is a big reason why the Reds are still in the race. He checks in with a 2.70 ERA and 1.10 WHIP over his last three outings. The last time he faced St. Louis he guided the Reds to a 5-3 win back on July 25th, allowing just one earned run over seven innings. Even if the Reds bats fail to get to Lester on Monday, they'll have a good chance against a Cards 'pen that blew its ninth save on the road yesterday and owns a collective 1.49 WHIP away from home this season. Take Cincinnati (9*). | |||||||
08-29-21 | Browns v. Falcons +6 | 19-10 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Cleveland at 8 pm et on Sunday. The Falcons have looked awful in their first two preseason games. They'll have a shot at redeeming themselves on Sunday night as they host the 2-0 Browns in front of a national audience. Note that Cleveland head coach Kevin Stefanski has surprisingly announced that QB Baker Mayfield and a 'select group' of starters will play in this game - an about face after the majority of his starters hadn't played a single snap in the first two preseason games. I'm still not expecting much more than a cameo appearance from Browns starters here. Falcons first-year head coach Arthur Smith has also suggested that some of his starters will play on Sunday night. Again, don't expect much more than a cameo appearance. Atlanta essentially punted last week's game in Miami, attempting just 15 passes in a 37-17 loss. Smith will certainly want his team to go into the season feeling good about themselves. Note that while the Browns are 2-0 they've faced the Jaguars and Giants - two teams that enter Week 3 sporting a combined 0-4 record. Take Atlanta (10*). | |||||||
08-29-21 | Calgary v. Winnipeg OVER 44 | Top | 16-18 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
CFL West Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Calgary and Winnipeg at 7 pm et on Sunday. I think we can still 'buy low' when it comes to the Stampeders offense as most are still setting low expectations in the absence of star QB Bo Levi Mitchell. Backup Jake Maier stepped in and did an admirable job in a 28-22 win over the Alouettes last week. In general, the Stamps offense looked as good as it has all season, with RB Ka'Deem Carey rushing for two touchdowns and two wide receivers posting 100+ yard receiving days. While the Blue Bombers vaunted defensive front will pose a serious challenge, the Stamps offensive line has been exceeding expectations, ranking second in the league in fewest sacks allowed, and I expect it to hold up well here also. Note that the Bombers two top pass rushers, Willie Jefferson and Jackson Jeffcoat continue to deal with nagging injuries. Both should play but they're still not at 100%. Meanwhile, the Bombers offense will get a major boost with the return of RB Andrew Harris. With their ground game struggling, his return should really open things up for QB Zach Collaros and the offense. The Stamps defense has faced a favorable early season schedule but has allowed six offensive touchdowns in three games. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
08-29-21 | Dolphins v. Bengals UNDER 36 | 29-26 | Loss | -108 | 99 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Cincinnati at 4 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the Dolphins rout of the Falcons last Saturday while cashing the 'under' in the Bengals narrow loss in Washington. Here, I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair as the Fins and Bengals wrap up their respective preseason schedules. Miami opened up its offensive playbook a little more in last week's 37-point outburst against Atlanta but I'm not expecting a similar gameplan as it heads out on the road this week. Head coach Brian Flores probably saw all he needed to from Tua Tagovailoa in that victory as the second-year QB attempted 23 passes and threw for 183 yards and a score in the win. This game more than likely belongs to QBs Jacoby Brissett and Reid Sinnett (along with a heavy dose of the Fins ground game). Cincinnati isn't playing QB Joe Burrow in the preseason, along with a number of other offensive starters. I certainly don't expect a sudden offensive outburst here against a quality defensive opponent. Despite trailing for much of the game, the Bengals threw the football only 27 times for 107 passing yards in last week's loss to the Washington Football Team. I would anticipate another contest where the Cincinnati offense simply 'goes through the motions' here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
08-29-21 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies UNDER 9 | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Philadelphia at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. Ranger Suarez has been about as reliable as it gets for the Phillies, stepping into the rotation at the start of the month and allowing just five earned runs in 21 1/3 innings of work. His three previous home starts have totaled just 8, 3 and 4 runs. Meanwhile, D'Backs veteran starter Madison Bumgarner has enjoyed a nice comeback season and enters this outing having worked at least six innings in six consecutive starts. His last three road outings have totaled just 5, 2 and 6 runs. The left-hander has posted an impressive 1.05 WHIP in 10 road starts this season. The less said about the two bullpens the better, but I'm not sure they'll be asked to do too much in this one, and neither lineup has really been tearing the cover off the ball (note that Friday's wild 7-6 extra innings game was 4-4 after nine innings). Weather conditions aren't nearly as favorable for hitters at Citizens Bank Park as they were earlier in the week. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
08-28-21 | Chargers v. Seahawks -5 | 0-27 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle minus the points over Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Saturday. I said it last week and I'll say it again here, the Chargers don't care about the preseason. Or should I say they don't care about their preseason win-loss record anyway. Head coach Brandon Staley has made a point to not play his starters throughout the preseason schedule and his number one goal will simply be keeping everyone healthy and ready to go for the start of the regular season here tonight. The Seahawks don't really care about the preseason either - not this year anyway. With that being said, they are coming off a 30-3 drubbing at the hands of the Broncos here at home last week so I do think they'll at the very least want to put their best foot forward and turn in a cleaner performance here as they wrap things up against the Chargers. Seattle backup quarterbacks Sean Mannion and Alex McGough have shown the ability to move the football. They struggled against an aggressive (by preseason standards) Denver pass rush last week but should fare better against the Chargers less aggressive front here tonight. Take Seattle (8*). | |||||||
08-28-21 | UTEP -9 v. New Mexico State | Top | 30-3 | Win | 100 | 465 h 11 m | Show |
College Football Game of the Month. My selection is on UTEP minus the points over New Mexico State at 9:30 pm et on Saturday August 28th. C-USA media members have the UTEP Miners slated to finish in last place in the West Division this season. I believe that the potential is there for a much better campaign, however. The Miners haven't had much recent success to boast about. They've gone a miserable 5-27 going back to the 2018 season but three of those victories came in eight games last season. Here, they have an excellent opportunity to get off to a fast start with this road tilt against New Mexico State followed by their home opener against FCS squad Bethune-Cookman. This is a team that has lofty goals this season, believing it can exceed expectations and reach a Bowl game. Note that UTEP was favored in only three games all of last season and won all three by an average margin of 14 points. UTEP returns the bulk of the squad that won those three games last season. On offense, there's finally some continuity with QB Gavin Hardison back under center. In the backfield, the potential is there for a breakout campaign from RB Deion Hankins who returns after rushing for nearly 600 yards and nine scores as a redshirt freshman last season. The Miners also have an excellent 1-2 punch at wide receiver with Jacob Cowing and Justin Garrett. There are questions on the offensive line after a shaky 2020 campaign, but with plenty of experience returning there's reason for optimism. Defensively, the Miners draw a favorable matchup against an Aggies offense that has been punchless over the last couple of seasons (keep in mind New Mexico State didn't play a single game in 2020 due to Covid). UTEP has a true star on the outside in DE Praise Amaewhule, who finds himself on the Bednarik Award Watch List for the nation's best defensive player. He could quickly climb up the NFL Draft board should he repeat or improve on his incredible 2020 performance. UTEP's secondary could be leaky early on, but this is a matchup where I expect its pass rush to give the Aggies little time to get the football down the field for big plays. The Miners are set on the defensive line and should devour a New Mexico State offensive line that lacks continuity and will need time to come together as a unit. There's a QB competition ongoing for New Mexico State with junior Jonah Johnson trying to hold off Weston Eget. Eget was more effective in the team's first of two Spring games against non-FBS opponents but injured his ankle early on and missed crucial practice time as a result. Johnson struggled against the likes of Dixie State and Tarleton State and I question how he will perform should he get the nod against the Miners vaunted pass rush here. While the Aggies should have a solid backfield, again this is a tough opening matchup against a good defensive line. Defensively, the Aggies allowed their two FCS opponents in the Spring to rush for over five yards per carry. Meanwhile, they failed to come up with a single interception. While I realize they've had plenty of practice time since then and those two results don't tell the entire story, this is a defensive unit that is unrecognizable compared to the 2019 edition and I simply feel it's going to take time to round into form. Take UTEP (10*). | |||||||
08-28-21 | UTEP v. New Mexico State UNDER 56.5 | 30-3 | Win | 100 | 465 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between UTEP and New Mexico State at 9:30 pm et on Saturday August 28th. I'm not anticipating a shootout as UTEP and New Mexico State look to start their 2021 campaigns on a positive note on opening night. The Miners offense struggled for the most part last season. It does bring plenty of continuity to the table here with virtually all of the same faces returning but an offensive explosion in the season-opener might be a little too much to ask. I do think we'll see UTEP find plenty of success putting together long, clock-churning drives as it matches up well against the New Mexico State defense. With that being said, priority one will be taking care of the football after finishing in the bottom-13 of the nation with over two turnovers per game last season. On the flip side, the Miners defensive front should be able to camp out in the Aggies backfield in this one. The strength of UTEP's defense certainly lies in its pass rush and while New Mexico State has brought in some help on the offensive line, it's going to take time to come together as a unit. Here, with two unproven (and turnover-prone in the case of junior Jonah Johnson) quarterbacks, I expect to see a relatively safe gameplan from the New Mexico State offense with perhaps a heavy dose of its 1-2 backfield tandem of Alex Escobar and O'Maury Samuels. As is often the case, we're dealing with a high early season total based largely on the potential of both offenses rather than what we're actually going to see on the field. This is actually a critical Week 1 affair for both teams as they hope to avoid setting a negative tone with a tough schedule ahead. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
08-28-21 | Nationals v. Mets -206 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Washington at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. While the Mets are essentially out of the playoff race thanks to their current slump, I think we'll see them show some pride with Marcus Stroman on the hill on Saturday as they snap their four-game skid here at home against the lowly Nationals. Stroman was on the hill for the Mets last win, that coming against one of the best teams in baseball, the Dodgers, in Los Angeles last Sunday. Despite his team's struggles, Stroman continues to pitch well and I expect more of the same on Saturday. He owns a terrific 2.95 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over his last three outings with New York winning two of those games, including a 4-1 victory over Washington. Sean Nolin meanwhile has made two starts for the Nats and neither was good as he was tagged for seven earned runs on 14 hits in just seven innings of work. Expect the Mets bats to wake up and get to him early and often in this one. Take New York (5*). | |||||||
08-28-21 | Cubs v. White Sox -1.5 | 7-0 | Loss | -140 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the White Sox -1.5 runs over the Cubs at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. The White Sox bats are on fire once again and I don't see Alec Mills and his 6.00 ERA and 1.67 WHIP over his last three starts slowing them down on Saturday night. Meanwhile, Sox starter Lance Lynn took a hard-luck no decision in Toronto earlier this week but Chicago remains 7-2 in his last nine outings, including an 8-6 victory over these same Cubs at Wrigley Field. Lynn owns a sparkling 2.25 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 14 home starts this season. With Lynn likely to work deep into the ball game and the White Sox bats in excellent form (27 runs last two games) to support him, look for a lopsided victory for the home side here. Take the White Sox -1.5 runs (6*). | |||||||
08-28-21 | Brewers -144 v. Twins | 4-6 | Loss | -144 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee over Minnesota at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. The Brewers bats have been silent over the last two games, leading to rare consecutive losses for the previously red hot club. I look for them to bounce back on Saturday, however, as they hand the ball to Adrian Houser and his 8-2 team record in 10 previous road starts. Houser has done everything the Brewers have asked of him, posting a solid 3.59 ERA and 1.33 WHIP this season, guiding his team to 14 wins in 20 starts. You would have to go back five starts to May 21st to find the last time Milwaukee lost a Houser road outing. Meanwhile, Twins starter Charlie Barnes continues to struggle. He has posted a 6.75 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in just shy of 19 innings this season with those numbers rising to 8.36 and 1.79 over his last three outings. Telling is the fact that he has topped out at three strikeouts while posting fewer than that in three of his four big league starts. Behind Barnes is a Twins bullpen that has generally been awful this season and entered last night's game with a collective 7.29 ERA and 1.71 WHIP over the last seven games. Take Milwaukee (5*). | |||||||
08-28-21 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies -1.5 | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia -1.5 runs over Arizona at 6:05 pm et on Saturday. The D'Backs have put up plenty of offense in the first two games in this series but only managed a 1-1 split. I look for them to run out of gas on Saturday as they fall short of the desperate Phillies in the third game in this series. Philadelphia did well to bail itself out of a mess in the 11th inning last night, ultimately securing a 7-6 walk-off win. That should give it some much-needed confidence ahead of another very winnable game against the lowly Snakes on Saturday. Kyle Gibson has been terrific since joining the Phils and he'll be asked to step up with another solid performance here. He owns a 2.25 ERA and 1.20 WHIP over his last three outings. Meanwhile, Humberto Mejia is only being used as a stop-gap for a poor D'Backs rotation. He pitched reasonably well against the Pirates in his last start but has generally struggled in four career big league outings, allowing eight earned runs on 19 hits in only 15 innings of work. Behind him is an awful Arizona bullpen that showed its ugly side again last night. Take Philadelphia -1.5 runs (5*). | |||||||
08-28-21 | Royals v. Mariners -148 | 4-2 | Loss | -148 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle over Kansas City at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. The Mariners have dropped the first two games in this series in excruciating fashion but I look for them to bounce back on Saturday afternoon as they look to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. Rookie Daniel Lynch will get the start for Kansas City. He has had some positive starts but all told has posted a 4.74 ERA and 1.53 WHIP, not to mention a 44.5% hard-hit ball percentage and .282 opponents batting average. Tyler Anderson has pitched well for the Mariners since coming over prior to the trade deadline. In his lone start here at T-Mobile Park he allowed just one earned run over 5 1/3 innings in a 2-1 victory over the Rangers. Look for him to step up here as the Mariners earn a much-needed victory. Take Seattle (5*). | |||||||
08-28-21 | Hawaii v. UCLA UNDER 70.5 | Top | 10-44 | Win | 100 | 218 h 21 m | Show |
CFB on ESPN TV Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Hawaii and UCLA at 3:30 pm et on Saturday August 28th. This is being pegged as a shootout. That's not surprising considering Hawaii is known for its high-flying offensive ways (even if that hasn't necessarily held true in recent years) and UCLA has plenty of returning talent under the guidance of offensive guru Chip Kelly. I believe the total will prove to be too high, however, as the two teams could surprise defensively. Hawaii returns last year's defense virtually intact. Expect defensive-minded head coach Todd Graham to treat this as an excellent 'measuring stick game' right out of the gates against a quality UCLA offense. The Rainbow Warriors boast speed all over the defensive backfield and should be able to do a good job of limiting big plays down the field in this one. They're also well-positioned to minimize UCLA's effectiveness on the ground with a substantial defensive line led by NT Blessman Ta'ala. LB Darius Muasau is by no means a household name but he's a stud linebacker that led the team in tackles a year ago, including 4.5 sacks and 9.5 tackles for loss. Offensively, I expect Hawaii QB Chevan Cordeiro to do enough running to help keep drives alive, moving the chains and ultimately shortening this game by keeping the clock moving. Cordeiro isn't going to wow anyone with his arm and I don't expect him to be put in too many high-risk situations against an opportunistic UCLA defense here. Instead, look for him to take what the Bruins give him and rely on steady RB Calvin Turner to pound away on early downs. The Bruins have to replace their leading rusher from a year ago but outside of that, their offense is loaded. I simply question whether we'll see them hit the ground running right out of the gates in this non-conference Week 0 affair. QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson has been dealing with an undisclosed injury but is expected to be good to go for the season-opener. The ceiling is sky-high for this offense but as I mentioned, Hawaii has a capable defense that could make life at least a little bit difficult here. Defensively, UCLA loses Osa Odighizuwa to the NFL but returns the bulk of the defense that finished last season sixth in the Pac-12 in total defense and second in scoring defense. This is a season-opening matchup it can handle but I do think the Bruins could end up on the field a little more than they would like should the Warriors pound away as I would expect them to. That only serves to help our cause with the potential for long, clock-churning drives. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
08-27-21 | Hamilton v. Montreal OVER 46.5 | 27-10 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Hamilton and Montreal at 7:30 pm et on Friday. The CFL is off to a low-scoring start this season but now that we're into Week 4, I think we'll begin to see the offenses start to round into form. If this game were played a little later in the season I'm certain we'd be dealing with a total in the 50's. The Ti-Cats are expected to give Dane Evans the start at quarterback with Jeremiah Masoli sidelined. Remember, Evans took over the starting job for Masoli back in 2019 and actually started for them in the Grey Cup title game. He didn't look particularly sharp in relief of Masoli against the Riders two weeks ago but has had a couple of weeks of practice since then thanks to the bye week and I expect him to take advantage of the Als weakness, which happens to be their secondary. Hamilton has been banging its head against the wall trying to run the football so far this season so I think we'll see them take to the air more often in this one. On the flip side, the Als boast one of the most aggressive offenses in the CFL. We can expect to see QB Vernon Adams Jr. bomb away in this one and he should have ample time to operate in the pocket with the Ti-Cats undermanned on the defensive line. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
08-27-21 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies -225 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over Arizona at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The Phillies are reeling right now but as much as they've struggled to find wins lately, they're still in the N.L. playoff race. Thanks to playing in a weak N.L. East, they're looking up at just one team and that's the Atlanta Braves. They currently sit five games back of the division lead but with the Braves getting ready for a tough series against the red hot Giants this weekend, the opportunity is there to gain some ground. But they need to start winning. I think it happens on Friday night. Taylor Widener will take the ball for the D'Backs. We won with the 'over' in his most recent start. Note that the Phillies will be seeing him for the second time in as many weeks. They fell short by a 3-2 score the last time they faced him on August 27th. That was in Arizona. Note that the D'Backs are a miserable 17-49 on the road this season, outscored by an average margin of nearly two runs. Widener has struggled at night for whatever reason, posting a 5.21 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in eight starts. The D'Backs have won just three of those eight contests. Despite Arizona finding a bit of success lately, its bullpen remains unreliable. Snakes relievers entered last night's game sporting a 7.23 ERA and 1.93 WHIP over their last seven contests and proceeded to almost cough up an 8-2 ninth inning lead last night as well (they held on for an 8-7 victory). Aaron Nola will counter for Philadelphia. He has been terrific at home this season, posting a 3.32 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. While his ERA north of five in 15 nighttime starts leaves a lot to be desired, his WHIP sits at a respectable 1.22. Note that Nola should bring some confidence into this start after coming just one out short of a complete game against the Padres in his last outing, striking out 11 while issuing just two walks and giving up two earned runs on two hits. Nola has the benefit of having not faced the D'Backs since 2017 so a lot of their hitters have never seen him pitch. The Phillies bullpen has been uneven all season but has managed to convert 15 saves while blowing only nine here at home. Their numbers are of course far superior to those of the D'Backs. Take Philadelphia (6*). | |||||||
08-27-21 | Colts v. Lions OVER 31.5 | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 60 h 30 m | Show |
NFLX Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Indianapolis and Detroit a 7 pm et on Friday. With the Colts being known for their stout defense and the Lions pegged as potentially the worst team in football this season, not to mention coming off consecutive losses to open the preseason, it's not all that surprising that we're dealing with a low total in this 'meaningless' preseason tilt. I think there's reason to expect some offensive fireworks, however. Indianapolis is preparing to face a brutal early season schedule. The Colts won't be able to catch their breath until mid-October when they get a home layup against the Texans. With that in mind, they need to stay healthy, particularly on the defensive side of the football, coming out of this final preseason tilt. For that reason I wouldn't expect to see much of their defensive starters. That opens the door for the Lions to perhaps go into the season with a good feeling as they try to notch their first victory of the preseason. There is some continuity on the Lions side with David Blough and Tim Boyle having taken all of the snaps here in August game action. That should continue to be the case on Friday and I don't think it's necessarily a bad thing. Keep in mind, we did see a spark from the Detroit offense against the Steelers backups last week as they put up 20 points in the fourth quarter. The Colts have thrown the football around more than you might expect in the preseason as Jacob Eason and Sam Ehlinger continue to battle it out for the Week 1 starting job (and eventual backup to Carson Wentz, who has returned to practice). After attempting 37 passes in Week 1 of the preseason, Eason and Ehlinger combined to attempt 40 passes in Week 2. Head coach Frank Reich will want to see better execution from the offense here this week after they were held to just 12 points and zero touchdowns in last week's narrow 12-10 win over the Vikings. Indy did move the football in that contest, with the two quarterbacks combining to throw for over 200 yards. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
08-26-21 | Dodgers v. Padres +122 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 60 m | Show |
N.L. West Game of the Year. My selection is on San Diego over Los Angeles at 9:10 pm et on Thursday. No one wants any part of the Padres in this spot but we do. Last night's game was pressure-packed. The 16-inning thriller left the Padres with yet another loss. Now I think that pressure is off. With their Wild Card lead having disappeared, no one is expecting San Diego to recover. However, the opportunity is still there and I expect it to salvage the finale of this series with the Dodgers on Thursday. It's rare that we can back Yu Darvish in an underdog role but that's the case here. He's back on the mound following a stint on the I.L. as he was dealing with back issues. That was clearly evident in his most recent start as he struggled against the lowly D'Backs. I don't believe Darvish would be back unless he felt he was ready and expect him to step in and perform well against the Dodgers, just as he has in three previous starts against them this season (3 ER allowed in 20 IP). The Padres could certainly use this game as a potential turning point, noting that Darvish has posted an 11-3 team record in 14 home starts this season Meanwhile, Los Angeles starter Max Scherzer has been lit up by the Padres twice already this season, allowing 11 ER in 10 2/3 IP. His teams are just 6-6 all-time in his 12 career outings against San Diego including a 2-2 mark in his four starts against the Pads' since 2019. Scherzer has yet to lose in four starts since joining the Dodgers but I think it comes here. Note that San Diego is still 44-28 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 0.5 runs per contest. L.A. has won 15 of its last 17 games - its best stretch of the season. I'll go the contrarian route here. Take San Diego (10*). | |||||||
08-26-21 | Aces -10.5 v. Dream | Top | 78-71 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
WNBA Game of the Year. My selection is on Las Vegas minus the points over Atlanta at 7 pm et on Thursday. Atlanta gave Chicago all it could handle two nights ago but again fell short by six points to remain winless since returning from the Olympic break. Now with a host of key injuries and absences it will be hard-pressed to bounce back as it welcomes what is sure to be a fired up Aces squad coming off a tough loss in Connecticut. Las Vegas has already handled the Dream with ease once this season, rolling to a 118-95 win back on July 4th (we won with the Aces and the 'over' on that night). With A'ja Wilson coming off a ridiculous (and highly uncharacteristic) 1-of-15 shooting performance against an elite Sun squad two nights ago we can expect her to lead the bounce-back charge here. Note that the Aces also got poor performances from generally steady contributors in Jackie Young, Riquna Williams and Kelsey Plum in that loss. The Dream appeared headed for another blowout loss on Tuesday before they caught fire shooting the ball in the second half. That was of course after Chicago had already built up a sizable lead and let down its guard defensively. Things have gone downhill in a hurry for the Dream who didn't exactly start the season on the right foot. A suspension to Chennedy Carter has been key to their regression but the fact is, when you shoot below 41% from the field at home and average fewer than 79 points per game, you're not going to find much success in today's WNBA. Las Vegas has shown the ability to win by margin on the road this season. Two of its last three road victories have come by 16 points or more. Note that the Aces haven't suffered any sort of drop-off in execution defensively on the road this season, holding opponents to 80.3 points per game on 41.6% shooting. I suspect this will be a situation where the Aces clamp down on the Dream offense, ultimately opening things up for their offense to rebound off Tuesday's poor showing. Take Las Vegas (10*). | |||||||
08-26-21 | Sparks v. Sun OVER 151 | 72-76 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Connecticut at 7 pm et on Thursday. After holding their four opponents to 59, 60, 71 and 62 points since the Olympic break (all victories) it would only be human nature for the Sun to suffer a bit of a defensive letdown here. That's especially true when you consider Los Angeles was just held to 68 points in a loss that was more lopsided than the final score indicated in Washington on Tuesday. Keep in mind, Los Angeles is as healthy as it has been all season. We've seen the Sparks alternate good and bad offensive showings since returning from the break and they should be in line for a better performance here than we saw against the Mystics two nights ago. Connecticut has been in a similar pattern of good followed by subpar offensive efforts since returning from the break. I fully expect the Sun, and Jonquel Jones in particular, to turn in a sharp shooting performance here, noting that Jones scored in single-figures for the first time all season against the Aces last time out. If Connecticut was able to put up 76 points against an elite Las Vegas squad, with Jones having an off night you can only imagine what it is capable of doing against a Sparks team playing their third game in five nights in three different cities. Look for the Sun to set the pace here but for the Sparks to be along for the ride as well as they help push this one 'over' the very reasonable total. Take the over (9*). | |||||||
08-26-21 | Crvena Zvezda v. CFR Cluj OVER 2.25 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' 2.0 goals between CFR Cluj and Red Star Belgrade at 2:30 pm et on Thursday. NOTE: I'm reccomending a play on the 'over' using the alternate total of 2.0 goals, laying about -175 to do so at the time of writing. This of course ensures we at least get a push should the match end on exactly two goals. If alternate totals are not available at your book, I would still suggest playing the 'over' at 2.25 goals. Red Star Belgrade is looking to advance in Europa League action after bitter disappointment in Champions League qualification. It should be well on its way after securing a 4-0 victory at home in the first leg of this matchup. Despite the seemingly comfortable lead, I don't expect Red Star to sit back and 'park the bus' in this one as an aggressive attacking CFR Cluj side should afford the Serbian superclub plenty of opportunities to expand its margin. Cluj are no strangers to high-scoring affairs, noting that they fell by an aggregate 4-2 score against Young Boys in their unglorious Champions League exit. The seven-time Romanian champions do still have to carry some confidence here as they've actually gone a perfect 6-0 in league play this season and will certainly want to put on a good show here at home. Note that for as well as Red Star has performed, it has already lost a pair of matches away from home in league play and has dropped four of its last six overall on the road. Cluj is expected to have forward Alexandru Paun back for this match following his one-game suspension. I see little reason for the Romanian side to hold anything back as it needs a small miracle to secure advancement from this tie. We'll without a doubt see changes to the Cluj lineup following an unfruitful effort in the first leg. Red Star will undoubtedly use this match as a step-off point as it looks to continue on in Europa League play while also tuning up prior to its return to league action. As I said, this is a squad that has an attacking mindset regardless the situation and I don't expect to see it satisfied with its 4-0 lead. I suspect there are at least three goals to be had in this match. Take the over 2.0 goals (6*). | |||||||
08-26-21 | Zalgiris v. Bodo / Glimt OVER 3.25 | 0-1 | Loss | -127 | 5 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' 2.5 goals between Zalgiris and Bodo Glimt at 12 noon et on Thursday. NOTE: I'm recommending a play on the 'over' using the alternate total of 2.5 goals (laying -195 at the time of writing). The standard total currently being offered is 3.0 goals. This is a Europa Conference League match. Bodo Glimt holds a considerable talent edge in this match yet the first leg ended in a 2-2 draw. I'm confident that result will have both sides come out with an attacking mindset in this one, noting that each of the previous two matches between these two squads has totaled exactly four goals (Bodo won 3-1 last September). The real question here is whether we believe Zalgiris can break through as the match price says it all with Bodo Glimt a considerable favorite. I believe it can do just that as Bodo has proven to be vulnerable on the back end - noting that it has seen at least three total goals scored in 10 of its last 16 matches, despite many of those matches coming against inferior opposition. We already witnessed Bodo Glimt become somewhat complacent in the second half in the first leg of this matchup and a similar situation is in the cards here - especially if/when they build a lead. They're capable of messing around as much as they'd like and still finding the back of the net on a couple of occasions here. Meanwhile, having already found a marker in each of the last two meetings, Zalgiris has a blueprint for denting the Bodo defense. I believe we'll see a worst-case scenario 2-1 result here and more likely higher-scoring affair. Take the over 2.5 goals (5*). | |||||||
08-25-21 | Dodgers v. Padres UNDER 8 | 5-3 | Push | 0 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and San Diego at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. Both Walker Buehler and Blake Snell have pitched like aces here in August and I look for another well-pitched game as the two square off on Wednesday night at Petco Park. Buehler checks in sporting a 2.07 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in 10 road starts this season. In four August starts he has allowed just five earned runs in 26 2/3 innings of work. Not surprisingly, the 'under' has cashed in three of those four games. Meanwhile, the Dodgers bullpen has posted a collective 0.91 WHIP while converting five saves without a single blown save over their last seven games. Blake Snell owns a 2.68 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 10 home starts this season with the 'under' cashing in eight of those games. He's had his share of issues at times this season but not against the Dodgers as he's given up just four earned runs in 15 1/3 innings. In six career starts against Los Angeles, Snell owns a 1.03 WHIP. The Padres bullpen has recorded a collective ERA north of five over its last seven games but a much more respectable 1.14 WHIP. Note that both bullpens enjoyed a day off on Monday so they should be relatively fresh here in the second game of this series. Take the under (9*). | |||||||
08-25-21 | Rays v. Phillies OVER 8 | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Tampa Bay and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a low-scoring game between these two teams last night with just four total runs scored. I'm expecting to see a higher total reached in the first five innings alone on Wednesday, however. Ryan Yarbrough will get the start for Tampa Bay. He's been awful in three of his last four starts and checks in having allowed four home runs in his last two outings, covering a span of just 10 innings of work. The Phillies are obviously in desperate need of a spark right now and I think they get it as they face Yarbrough for the second time this season (they chased him after 4 1/3 innings in a 5-3 victory in late May). By playing the first five innings only we'll look to avoid a terrific Rays bullpen that has been lights out over the last seven games. Zack Wheeler will counter for Philadelphia. Like Yarbrough, he's struggled for the most part lately, allowing at least four earned runs in five of his last eight trips to the hill. The last time we saw Wheeler pitch here in Philadelphia he allowed two home runs over six innings against the Reds. On another favorable night for long balls at Citizens Bank Park, I expect him to get tagged again here. Take the first five innings over (10*). | |||||||
08-25-21 | Tigers v. Cardinals OVER 9 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 38 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and St. Louis at 1:15 pm et on Wednesday. Both of these teams have been involved in their share of low-scoring games recently but I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday afternoon in St. Louis. Tarik Skubal will take the ball for Detroit. He's pitched well over his last few starts but note that two of those came at home and the other came on the road against an awful Orioles team. Skubal still owns a less than impressive 5.11 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in nine road starts. Also note that he averages fewer than five innings per start on the road this season. That means we're likely to see plenty of a Tigers bullpen that has posted a collective 5.69 ERA and 1.61 WHIP away from home (entering last night's action). Jon Lester has been a complete train wreck this season and has done little to turn things around since joining the Cardinals. He has recorded a 5.08 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 12 home starts. Over his last three outings that ERA sits at 5.87 to go along with a 1.70 WHIP. His last 10 starts have resulted in 13, 21, 12, 14, 19, 8, 7, 11, 13 and 12 total runs - good for an average of 13 runs. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
08-24-21 | Royals v. Astros -217 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston over Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Royals stayed hot, notching their fourth straight win in convincing fashion in the opener of this series in Houston last night. Look for the Astros to answer back on Tuesday as they avoid dropping their third game in a row in the midst of a playoff race. Brady Singer will take the ball for Kansas City. After making his last five starts at home, he'll head back out on the road where he has posted a 5.25 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in eight starts this season, with the Royals winning just two of those games. Note that Singer enters this start sporting a disastrous 10.21 ERA and 2.43 WHIP over his last three outings. The Royals bullpen has struggled at the best of times on the road this season, recording a collective 4.87 ERA and 1.41 WHIP entering last night's action. They haven't had an off day since August 12th and were forced to log another four innings last night with starter Daniel Lynch lasting only five frames. Luis Garcia will counter for the Astros. He's by no means a household name but he's pitched exceptionally well for Houston - particularly here at home where he owns a 1.92 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in 10 starts with the Astros winning seven of those games. Houston has done a great job of supporting Garcia, plating a whopping 38 runs over his last six starts. Despite last night's loss, the Astros are still 14 games over .500 at home this season where they outscore opponents by well north of 1.0 run per game. After dropping three of four games in Kansas City last week, they can't afford to let another series slip away against the lowly Royals. Take Houston (5*). | |||||||
08-24-21 | Nationals v. Marlins OVER 8 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 32 m | Show |
N.L. East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Miami at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Nationals may simply be playing out the string at this point but they're still hitting, having scored 38 runs over their last six games. I expect them to get involved in another high-scoring affair to open this series in Miami on Tuesday night. Erick Fedde will get the call for the Nats. He owns an ERA of nearly six and a 1.76 WHIP over his last three starts. The 'over' has cashed in each of his last four trips to the hill. Behind Fedde is a struggling Nats bullpen that owns a collective 6.75 ERA and 1.69 WHIP over their last seven contests. Jesus Luzardo will counter for Miami. He's struggled since coming over from Oakland, checking in with an 11.37 ERA and 2.37 WHIP over his last three starts. His last two outings have resulted in 24 and 20 total runs. Behind Fedde is a Marlins bullpen that has posted a collective 9.64 ERA and 1.97 WHIP over their last seven games. With the Marlins getting healthier lineup-wise of late, they won't shy away from a potential slugfest here. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
08-24-21 | Angels v. Orioles OVER 10.5 | Top | 14-8 | Win | 100 | 21 h 15 m | Show |
American League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Baltimore at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. Dylan Bundy has been marginally better (at times at least) for the Angels this season but here he'll face an Orioles lineup that will look to take their frustrations out on their former teammate - mired in an 18-game losing streak but having faced three straight opponents in the midst of playoff races. It's a different story here as the O's welcome the Angels, who just got swept by the Indians and sit out of the playoff race, two games under .500 on the season. Bundy owns an ugly 7.16 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 10 nighttime starts this season. He's failed to last through the fifth inning in six of his last seven outings. I do think the O's lineup is better than it has shown in recent weeks and its recent struggles have had more to do with the level of opposition it has faced than anything else (Red Sox, Rays and Braves). Again, I think we see the O's take their frustrations out on the Angels subpar pitching staff on Tuesday. Spenser Watkins will counter for Baltimore. He owns a terrible 9.00 ERA and 2.00 WHIP over his last three starts. In six nighttime outings this season he has recorded a 6.21 ERA and 1.72 WHIP. Meanwhile, the O's bullpen owns a collective 5.31 ERA and 1.37 WHIP at home this season. After being held to just two runs in a three-game sweep at the hands of the Indians look for the Angles to bust out at the plate in this one. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
08-24-21 | Sparks v. Mystics +1.5 | 68-78 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington over Los Angeles at 7 pm et on Tuesday. The Sparks have reeled off four straight wins coming out of the Olympic break but I expect that streak to end here on Tuesday night in Washington. Keep in mind, L.A.'s four wins have come against the likes of Indiana, Atlanta (twice) and New York - three of the league's worst teams. The Mystics would also appear to fit in that category based on their 8-14 record but I expect them to rise to the occasion here. Note that Washington has had a tough slate of opponents since returning from the break, going up against the Aces (twice) and Mercury on the road before hosting the defending champion Storm on Sunday. While the Mystics dropped all four of those games SU they did manage to go 2-2 ATS with one of the missed covers coming by a single point. Washington will have to deal with the absence of leading scorer Tina Charles for this one but it got a big boost with the return of Elena Delle Donne last time out so Charles' injury doesn't serve as quite as much of a blow. If the Mystics are to have any hopes of climbing the Eastern Conference standings and making a run at the postseason they need to win games like this - the second instalment of a five-game homestand. Los Angeles has played just three road games since the middle of June, losing two of those. While the Sparks are finally healthy, I still don't consider them to be one of the league's elite teams. Note that despite holding the Liberty to 41.3% shooting on Sunday (and shooting better than 47% from the field themselves), they were still outrebounded by a 45-36 margin. They'll face a Mystics squad that managed to outrebound the Storm 48-45 despite shooting 36.8% from the field in Sunday's setback. The Sparks have dropped each of their last two visits to Washington and I look for the Mystics to get the better of them here as well. Take Washington (10*). | |||||||
08-24-21 | Sky v. Dream UNDER 166.5 | Top | 86-79 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
WNBA Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Atlanta at 7 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams are reeling right now with Chicago having lost back-to-back games on its home floor and Atlanta having gone 0-4 since returning from the Olympic break and winless over its last eight games. With both coming off subpar defensive efforts look for them to make a concerted effort to rectify that on Tuesday night in Atlanta. Chicago actually checks in as one of the league's better defensive teams but it gave up a whopping 101 points on 54% shooting against Minnesota last time out. The 'under' has cashed in seven of Chicago's 11 road games this season as the Sky have limited opponents to just 41.1% shooting away from home. Note that Atlanta managed to score just 69 points in its most recent game - a 15-point loss to Phoenix - despite getting above-average shooting performances from Crystal Bradford, Odyssey Sims and Aari McDonald (combined 18-of-36 shooting). I would anticipate some offensive regression from the Dream here, noting that they're without two of their best offensive players in Chennedy Carter (suspension) and Cheyenne Parker (personal). Chicago got monster offensive performances from Allie Quigley and Courtney Vandersloot in its loss to Seattle on Sunday as the duo combined to pour in 54 points. Note that Vandersloot had previously been held to just six points combined in the Sky's first two games after the Olympic break. The 'under' has gone 7-4 in Dream home games this season with those contests totaling an average of less than 164 points. The last time these two teams hooked up here in Atlanta they combined to score just 162 points back in May. That was with the two teams getting to the free throw line a whopping 60 times. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
08-24-21 | Mariners v. A's -140 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -140 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
MLB Daytime Game of the Year. My selection is on Oakland over Seattle at 3:35 pm et on Tuesday. The A's have now dropped three games in a row after losing the opener of this brief two-game series by a 5-3 score last night. Expect them to bounce back on Tuesday afternoon. Chris Flexen will get the call for the Mariners. While the M's are 7-3 in his 10 road outings this season, he hasn't pitched particularly well, recording a 4.92 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. After a stretch that saw him give up just one home run in five starts, he's now allowed at least one long ball in four of his last five trips to the hill. The A's will be getting their third look at Flexen this season having had plenty of previous success, scoring seven earned runs on 13 hits while walking three times and striking out only four in 11 1/3 innings of work. Of course, Oakland has gotten even stronger offensively since the trade deadline which is notable as Flexen hasn't faced the A's since July 22nd. The Mariners bullpen hasn't been great on the road this season, entering last night's action sporting a collective 4.76 ERA and 1.37 WHIP with a whopping 16 blown saves. Cole Irvin issued a season-high four walks while matching a season-low with only one strikeout in his most recent start. Still, he managed to work six innings in an eventual 5-4 win over a playoff-bound White Sox club, on the road no less. Now he's back home where he owns a solid 3.72 ERA and 1.18 WHIP this season. Note that the A's haven't dropped an Irvin home start since back on May 30th against the Angels. They've reeled off five straight wins with Irvin on the hill here at the Coliseum since. Speaking of pitching at home, the A's bullpen entered last night's action having converted 16 saves while blowing only five here at home this season. Currently on the outside looking in (by a game) in the A.L. Wild Card hunt and with their division title hopes fading, look for the A's to earn a much-needed victory on Tuesday afternoon. Take Oakland (10*). | |||||||
08-23-21 | Jaguars v. Saints OVER 39 | Top | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
NFLX First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'over' between Jacksonville and New Orleans at 8 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are coming off losses in their respective preseason openers. Jags rookie QB Trevor Lawrence admitted he felt some nerves in his debut and it showed as he took a couple of early sacks and showed few flashes of the dominant college quarterback that warranted the number one overall pick in this year's draft. I expect him to settle down and turn in a much better performance on the fast track at the Superdome on Monday night. Lawrence will see the bulk of the early action under center but we should see Gardner Minshew get some first half reps as well. By playing the first half only we avoid getting too deep into the Jags QB rotation which also includes C.J. Beathard and Jake Luton - both threw touchdown passes late in last week's loss to the Browns but I wouldn't count on a repeat effort tonight. The Jags defense didn't look good against the Browns. Cleveland moved the football up and down the field at will, despite resting most of its key offensive starters. Jacksonville was actually fortunate to only give up 13 first half points in its preseason opener as the Browns lacked some execution at the end of drives. The damage could have been much worse. Here, I expect the Saints to make a concerted effort to push the football down the field with Jameis Winston expected to get the start under center. We saw Winston get more comfortable and start taking some deep shots as the game went on against the Ravens last week and I expect to see carry-over from that gameplan here. While this is a relatively high first half total by preseason standards, I don't think it's been set high enough. By playing the first half only we'll look to avoid putting our trust in the hands of Saints possible practice squad QB Trevor Siemian, who is expected to see plenty of second half action. Take the first half over (10*). | |||||||
08-23-21 | White Sox -107 v. Blue Jays | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
A.L. First Five Innings Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago over Toronto first five innings at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The White Sox didn't have a banner weekend in St. Petersburg, dropping two of three games against the Rays. I do expect them to get off to a strong start at the very least against the struggling Blue Jays on Monday. Lance Lynn will take the ball for Chicago. He's having another terrific season and checks in with a 2.27 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in eight road starts. While he'll be pitching on just four days' rest on Monday that's not a major concern as he's worked just nine innings combined in his last two starts. Lynn didn't get a victory in his lone previous start against Toronto this season but did pitch well, allowing just one earned run over seven innings, striking out nine along the way. By playing the first five innings only we'll look to avoid a White Sox bullpen that hasn't had a day off in a week-and-a-half. Alek Manoah will counter for Toronto. He labored through just three innings while allowing six earned runs in his most recent start. He'll be dealing with quite a bit of pressure in this start as the Blue Jays desperately need a strong outing to get back on track and keep their slim playoff hopes alive. I expect the White Sox to take advantage of facing Manoah for the second time this season. While he was on the mound for a 6-2 Jays win in Chicago back in early June, it's not as if he was dominant, striking out only four while allowing four hits and two walks over five innings. Take Chicago first five innings (10*). | |||||||
08-23-21 | Rangers v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 5 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Texas and Boston at 1:10 pm et on Monday. I think an off day might have been the best thing for the Red Sox slumping offense yesterday and look for them to bust out against Kolby Allard and the Rangers pitching staff on Monday. With that being said, I'm not interested in paying the massive price to back Boston here so will instead play the 'over' as I do think the Rangers can do enough offensively to help this one 'over' the total. Kolby Allard has been tagged for a whopping 12 home runs in his last seven outings. On a warm afternoon in Boston we should see the ball carrying well at Fenway Park and I expect Allard to once again give up his fair share of long balls, noting that he has posted a 33% fly ball rate on batted balls this season. Allard checks in sporting a 5.64 ERA and 1.19 WHIP on the road this season. The Rangers bullpen meanwhile has recorded an ERA north of five and a 1.47 WHIP with only six saves converted and seven blown on the road this season. Nathan Eovaldi will counter for Boston. Like Allard he's had a tough time keeping the ball in the park lately, allowing six home runs over his last four outings. Behind Eovaldi is a Red Sox 'pen that has recorded a collective 4.84 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in day games this season and a 1.44 WHIP over its last seven contests. It's been feast or famine for the Rangers offense lately but they have plated at least seven runs in four of their last eight games. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
08-22-21 | 49ers -5 v. Chargers | 15-10 | Push | 0 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Los Angeles at 7:30 pm et on Sunday. The Niners did a lot of good things but ultimately fell by a 19-16 score against Kansas City in their preseason opener. Meanwhile, the Chargers defeated the Rams despite scoring just 13 points last week. Los Angeles head coach Brandon Staley, along with the Chargers players, have made it clear that they don't care about the preseason (wins and losses anyway). Their starters will once again be on the sidelines for this one. Meanwhile, the 49ers should again give Jimmy Garropolo and Trey Lance extended looks in this one. All reports pointed to the fact that the Niners two quarterbacks looked sharp in 7-on-7 drills during joint practices with the Chargers this week and I expect to see some carry-over here. Take San Francisco (10*). | |||||||
08-22-21 | 49ers v. Chargers OVER 34 | 15-10 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Francisco and Los Angeles at 7:30 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams were involved in fairly low-scoring games last week. While I'm not anticipating a shootout here, I do think we'll see enough offense to get 'over' the very reasonable total. All indications are that Niners quarterbacks Jimmy Garropolo and Trey Lance were impressive during 7-on-7 drills against the Chargers at their joint practices this week. With Los Angeles resting its starters on both sides of the football again here, we can expect to see progression from the San Francisco offense in this one. Meanwhile, the Chargers are giving QB Easton Stick the start in this one as he has an outside chance at leap-frogging veteran QB Chase Daniel for the backup job. Expect to see Los Angeles attempt more passes than we're accustomed to seeing in the preseason as head coach Brandon Staley evaluates his quarterbacks. Take the over (9*). | |||||||
08-22-21 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Colorado at 3:10 pm et on Sunday. This game has slugfest written all over it on a hot day in Denver with the wind blowing out to right field. Off a low-scoring affair last night, look for a different story to unfold here. Taylor Widener takes the ball for the D'Backs. He has allowed at least one home run in six straight starts and three in his last two outings, spanning just 10 innings of work. Note that he hasn't lasted beyond the fifth inning in any of his last seven starts. The Arizona bullpen has of course been awful all season, posting a 5.40 ERA and 1.54 WHIP on the road (entering last night's action). Jon Gray will counter for Colorado. He's been shaky since the trade deadline passed (his name was swirling around plenty of rumors at the time). He enters this start sporting an ERA north of six and a WHIP over 1.70 over his last three outings. While the Colorado bullpen has been better lately, it still owns an ugly 5.45 ERA and 1.50 WHIP at home this season. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
08-21-21 | Phillies v. Padres -157 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego over Philadelphia at 8:40 pm et on Saturday. If the Padres are to have any hope of staying in the playoff race, they need to start winning games. It really is as simple as that. After suffering a tough 4-3 loss to the Phillies last night, I look for them to get back in the win column here. Aaron Nola has been the weak link in the Phillies rotation. They've lost six of his last nine starts and he has posted a 5.56 ERA and 1.29 WHIP with a 5-8 team record on the road this season. Entering last night's game the Phillies bullpen had converted 14 saves but blown 11 on the road this season. Joe Musgrove turned in one of his worst outings of the season against the lowly D'Backs last time out. Look for him to make amends back at home where he owns a 2.43 ERA and 1.00 WHIP with a 7-5 team record in 12 starts this season. The Padres bullpen entered last night's action sporting a 2.61 ERA and 1.11 WHIP with 25 saves converted and only six blown at home. Take San Diego (7*). | |||||||
08-21-21 | Titans v. Bucs -1 | 34-3 | Loss | -108 | 59 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay minus the points over Tennessee at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. The Bucs laid an egg in their preseason opener. After jumping ahead with a first quarter touchdown, their offense failed to reach the end zone again in a 19-14 loss against the Bengals, at home no less, last Saturday. Here, I look for a strong bounce-back performance from Bruce Arians' squad. While preseason results mean very little in the grand scheme of things (at least from a win-loss perspective), after a performance where they allowed four sacks and threw two interceptions, I think Arians will want to see a much cleaner performance from his team this week. The Titans on the other hand, rolled to a blowout win in Atlanta last Friday night. Mike Vrabel has still only managed a 3-6 preseason record in 2+ years guiding Tennessee. It's not as if the Titans backup QB duo of Logan Woodside and Matt Barkley was all that impressive in last week's win, it was more of a case of Atlanta not offering much resistance whatsoever. I expect a different story to unfold here. We go from the Bucs laying nearly a touchdown against the Bengals last week to now being virtually a pk'em against the Titans. I simply feel it's an overreaction to last week's 'meaningless' Week 1 preseason results. Take Tampa Bay (9*). | |||||||
08-21-21 | Falcons v. Dolphins OVER 36.5 | Top | 17-37 | Win | 100 | 58 h 58 m | Show |
NFLX Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Miami at 7 pm et on Saturday. We're being afforded a relatively low total to work with here thanks to 'meaningless' Week 1 preseason results. The Falcons were absolutely crushed by the Titans by a 23-3 score, at home no less. It certainly wasn't a great look for new head coach Arthur Smith - the former Titans offensive coordinator. Let's not get too excited by that ugly performance though. We didn't see the Falcons offensive starters in that game. It remains to be seen whether the starters suit up for this one but I would expect to see at least some of the Falcons stars to at the very least make a cameo appearance in this one. Regardless, I think Atlanta has enough depth on offense to put up a much better performance than we saw last week. Projected third-string QB Feleipe Franks did do a good job of moving the football on the ground, racking up 76 rushing yards against Tennessee. Here, I think we'll see Smith dial up the offense a little with a more pass-heavy attack as the Falcons use this as a measuring-stick game against a good Dolphins defense. Miami's offense got off to a fine start against the Bears last Saturday but fizzled in the second half in a 17-13 loss. That certainly wasn't an ideal spot to unleash the offense in a tough matchup on the road against a quality Bears defense. It's a different story here as Miami prepares to face a middle of the road Falcons defense. Head coach Brian Flores guided his team to a 3-1 record in his preseason debut as a head coach in 2019. That included a 34-27 victory over these same Falcons in their preseason home opener. Flores knows what he has on defense. What he needs to find out here is what he has offensively, and like Smith, I look for him to dial up a more aggressive offensive gameplan in an effort to figure out where his team stands, especially with QB Tua Tagovailoa taking over the reins as the starter this year. With this total sitting where it is, we don't need an offensive shootout to cash this ticket. That warrants us stepping up to our top rating. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
08-21-21 | Winnipeg v. Toronto OVER 43.5 | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 56 h 52 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Winnipeg and Toronto at 4 pm et on Saturday. We saw a low-scoring game between these two teams in Winnipeg last week - that's been the norm in CFL action so far this season, largely due to the absence of a preseason. Here, with both teams having two games under their belts, I look for them to perform better offensively in what I believe will be a high-scoring contest in Toronto. The Argos are expected to turn to QB Nick Arbuckle under center. He was injured to start the season. I think the plan always was for him to take over the reins from McLeod Bethel-Thompson. After showing some life in Week 1, we saw very little from the Toronto offense last week. That obviously had a lot to do with the elite nature of the Blue Bombers defense but also spoke to Bethel-Thompson's ineffectiveness. RB John White could miss this game due to a hip injury but if he does, that should only force Toronto to draw up more passing plays for Arbuckle, which might not be a bad thing as White ended up banging his head against the wall all night against a stout Bombers defensive front last week. Winnipeg is expected to get some help offensively with the possible return of RB Andrew Harris and WR Darvin Adams. Regardless whether one or both of those star players return, we can expect further progression from the Bombers offense after QB Zach Collaros turned in his strongest performance of the season against the Argos last week. Toronto does have an improved defense but both Charleston Hughes and Henoc Muamba have missed practice time this week and are questionable to play on Saturday. I think it's only a matter of time before we see a breakout performance from the Winnipeg offense, and this could very well be the spot as it makes the necessary adjustments after seeing the Argos new-look defense for the first time last Friday. With this being the lowest total on the Week 2 board, we don't need an offensive shootout to cash this 'over' ticket. I have the Bombers approaching 30 points in this one while the Argos should be able to do enough to help the final score up and 'over' the very reasonable number. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
08-21-21 | Royals v. Cubs OVER 9.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Kansas City and Chicago at 2:20 pm et on Saturday. With ideal weather conditions for the hitters (wind blowing out to left-center field) I expect a high-scoring affair at Wrigley Field on Saturday. Kris Bubic has given up five home runs in three August starts for the Royals. While the Cubs are shells of their former selves offensively, they are set up well to have a solid day at the plate on Saturday. Note that Chicago is a better hitting team both at home and against left-handed pitching this season. The Royals bullpen owns an ugly 4.98 ERA and 1.44 WHIP on the road this season. Chicago will give Keegan Thompson his first start since May. He fared ok in that start against the Dodgers but still only worked into the fifth inning. With Thompson unlikely to work deep into this game we should see plenty of the Cubs bullpen, which has been terrible lately, posting a 7.96 ERA and 1.62 WHIP over its last seven games. The Royals meanwhile busted out at the dish with multiple home runs yesterday and I expect some carry-over here. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
08-20-21 | Montreal v. Calgary UNDER 45.5 | 22-28 | Loss | -110 | 38 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Montreal and Calgary at 9:30 pm et on Friday. We missed with the 'over' in the Als season-opening rout of the Elks in Edmonton last week. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' as they look to complete the Alberta sweep in Calgary. Montreal looked terrific on both sides of the football in last Saturday's dominant win. Here, they catch a break as the Stamps will be without QB Bo Levi Mitchell after he suffered a broken fibula back in Week 1 (before inexplicably trying to play through it last week). That leaves the Stamps offense limited here with little experience behind Mitchell. 24-year old Jake Maier out of Cal-Davis is expected to get the start. While he's saying all the right things, it remains to be seen how effective he can be, or how much of the gameplan the Stamps will give him to work with in his first start. Against a much-improved Als pass rush, I don't expect the Stamps to throw Maier completely into the fire. Look for them to run a fairly conservative offense in this one with plenty of runs and short passes. The Als secondary could still turn out to be their weakness but I'm not sure we'll see that unit get exposed this week. Despite the 0-2 start, Calgary's defense has held up exceptionally well through the first two games. I would certainly expect to see that unit rise to the occasion knowing the offense isn't at full strength for this one. The Stamps gave up just one touchdown against the Lions last week with that coming five minutes into the second quarter. From there, they limited B.C. to just a 29-yard fourth quarter field goal. We're seeing lower CFL totals after seven of the first eight games this season stayed 'under' the total. That's likely been a product of the team's seeing no preseason action this year. With the Als playing just their second regular season game, look for another relatively low-scoring affair here. Take the under (9*). | |||||||
08-20-21 | Chiefs -2 v. Cardinals | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 37 h 8 m | Show |
NFLX TV Game of the Year. My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Arizona at 8 pm et on Friday. I'll lay the short number with the Chiefs as they travel to Arizona to face the Cardinals in front of a national ESPN audience on Friday. Both of these teams were victorious by identical 19-16 scores last week as the Chiefs defeated the Niners in San Francisco and the Cardinals took down the Cowboys here at home. It's worth noting that Arizona's victory came thanks to a pair of Matt Prater field goals inside the game's final two minutes (foiling our play on the Cowboys plus the points). Kyler Murray is expected to see his first action of the preseason for the Cardinals. He has already stated that he 'hates the preseason' and puts virtually no stock in what happens on the field. With WRs DeAndre Hopkins and A.J. Green and RB James Conner on and off the field due to various ailments, he may not have his full compliment of weapons during what should be a brief appearance in the first half on Friday. Also note that depth WR Andy Isabella will miss this game due to Covid protocols. Behind Murray in the QB rotation is the capable but underwhelming duo of Colt McCoy and Chris Streveler. Note that the Cards went 1-3 in the preseason in their first year under head coach Kliff Kingsbury back in 2019. So they're in uncharted territory in a sense as they look for their second consecutive preseason win here. Chiefs head coach Andy Reid has said that he will play his starters for most, if not all of the first half on Friday. While it remains to be seen whether that means we'll see a full half from QB Pat Mahomes (probably not), I still think we're going to see Kansas City put forth a fairly serious effort (by preseason standards) as they look to go 2-0 on the road. The Chiefs offense will be facing a Cardinals defense that won't have the services of J.J. Watt or Chandler Jones. Kansas City doesn't have a top-flight QB rotation by any means but I do like the veteran presence of Chad Henne and Shane Buechele did show he can move the ball down the field with his arm and his legs in last week's victory (8-of-11 passing and three runs for 13 yards). I simply feel we'll see a little better execution from the Chiefs for four quarters than we will from the Cardinals as Kansas City is a road favorite for a reason. Take Kansas City (10*). | |||||||
08-20-21 | Bengals v. Washington Football Team UNDER 35 | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 37 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Washington at 8 pm et on Friday. Both of these defenses seem to be considerably ahead of the offenses at this point of the preseason and I think we're dealing with a relatively low total for good reason. QB Joe Burrow didn't play in the Bengals preseason opener against the Bucs and he won't suit up this week either. That will once again leave this game in the hands of backup QB duo Brandon Allen and Kyle Shurmur. Neither lit it up in last week's win in Tampa, combining to complete just 19-of-29 passes for 185 yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions. With injuries on the offensive line, the Bengals will likely keep the offensive gameplan pretty simple in this one and it's not as if they have any true home run threats in the backfield as you go down the depth chart. The Bengals looked as good as any team defensively in their Week 1 victory, limiting Bucs quarterbacks to 17-of-39 passing for 130 yards while giving up just 29 rushing yards. It might be tough to duplicate that performance here, but I do expect another good effort from the Cincinnati 'D'. Washington looked good on defense against New England last Thursday, not allowing the Pats to reach the end zone until nearly four minutes into the fourth quarter. The Football Team suffered another late defensive breakdown on a 91-yard touchdown run inside the game's final two minutes but that was when they were deep into the depth chart. There's a bit of a QB battle brewing for the backup job behind Ryan Fitzpatrick and I think that could lead to more snaps for Taylor Heinecke and Kyle Allen (who recently returned from injury). Steven Montez was actually the most impressive of the bunch in last week's loss but it's unlikely he'll see as much playing time here. Regardless, with the starters not expected to get stretched out too much in Week 2, I'm not anticipating a big breakout performance from the Washington offense. Take the under (9*). | |||||||
08-20-21 | Marlins v. Reds OVER 8.5 | 3-5 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Cincinnati at 7:10 pm et on Friday. With weather conditions favoring the hitters once again in Cincinnati on Friday night, I'm anticipating a high-scoring affair between the Marlins and Reds. Elieser Hernandez will get just his fourth start of the season for the Marlins. He'll be pitching on four days' rest after a solid outing against the Cubs last time out. Keep in mind, he has allowed a home run in each of his three starts this season and two of his three outings have come against bottom-dwelling teams in the Pirates and Cubs. Here, he faces a playoff-hungry Reds club that averages 5.5 runs per game at Great American Ballpark. The Marlins bullpen has of course been a train wreck lately, entering last night's action sporting a collective 8.77 ERA and 1.95 WHIP over their last seven games. Sonny Gray will counter for the Reds as he makes his third straight start on just four days' rest. He owns a 5.44 ERA and 1.46 WHIP at home this season. Behind him is a Reds bullpen that has been extremely overworked, having not had a day off since back on August 2nd. With the Marlins likely to have Jazz Chisholm back in the lineup on Friday, I expect them to put up a better effort at the dish than we saw last night. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
08-20-21 | Storm -8 v. Liberty | 99-83 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle minus the points over New York at 7 pm et on Friday. The Storm were once again without USA Olympic Gold Medal winners Sue Bird and Breanna Stewart in the first of this two-game set two nights ago. Still, Seattle led that game by double-digits entering the fourth quarter. It couldn't make that lead stand up, however, as it was held to just seven points in a brutal fourth quarter on its way to a four-point loss. I expect a strong bounce-back performance with Bird and Stewart expected back in the lineup on Friday (note that Bird will be playing what could be her final game in here hometown of New York). Seattle has now dropped consecutive games coming out of the break but the fact that it was right there at the end of both of those games despite missing key cogs is encouraging. With championship pedigree, I'm confident we'll see the Storm bring their best effort on Friday. The Liberty shot an uncharacteristic 51.7% from the field in Wednesday's come-from-behind win. Note that they shoot worse than 44% at home this season. Interestingly, the SU winner has gone a perfect 23-0 ATS in all Liberty games this season. I certainly look for the Storm to get back on the winning side here, and believe they'll cover this reasonable spread. Take Seattle (10*). | |||||||
08-19-21 | Edmonton Elks +4.5 v. BC | Top | 21-16 | Win | 100 | 38 h 25 m | Show |
CFL Game of the Month. My selection is on Edmonton plus the points over B.C. at 10 pm et on Thursday. The Elks are off to a very disappointing 0-2 start, especially considering their first two games were played at home, against seemingly inferior East Division opponents no less. Expect them to bounce back on Thursday as they hit the road for the first time this season and play their first division game. In Week 1, it was all about a lack of execution for Edmonton as it marched up and down the field but simply couldn't finish drives with touchdowns against the RedBlacks. Last week, the Elks were simply overmatched by an Alouettes squad that came out firing on all cylinders on both sides of the football, but particularly on defense as they were all over Elks QB Trevor Harris all night long. I think the case can certainly be made that the Elks overlooked the Als. They won't make the same mistake against the Lions, who are coming off an upset win on the road against the Stampeders. The news has now come out that Stamps QB Bo Levi Mitchell has a broken fibula and all indications are that he was playing hurt in last week's game against B.C. Credit for the Lions for coming up with the win, but let's not get too excited. They're still dealing with injury issues to starting QB Mike Reilly with reports from practice this week indicating that he is still having trouble pushing the football down the field. While he is expected to start on Thursday night you can take that news with a grain of salt as we've seen plenty of mystery around the QB position in B.C. already this season. While the Lions offensive line held up well last week, I still think it's an area of concern with big offseason acquisition Ryker Matthews sidelined due to a head injury. He isn't expected to be cleared to play this Thursday night. This one really comes down to whether we can trust the Elks offense. If Edmonton is going to turn things around, that's the area that needs to improve the most and I'm confident we'll see just that on the fast track at B.C. Place on Thursday. This is an ultra-talented group led by veteran QB Trevor Harris and WR Greg Ellingson. After being held to just one catch for one yard last week, I believe we can bank on a big bounce-back performance from Ellingson in particular. Harris was given no time to operate against the Als retooled pass rush but should find the going a little easier against the Lions this week. Take Edmonton (10*). | |||||||
08-19-21 | Edmonton Elks v. BC OVER 45.5 | 21-16 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Edmonton and B.C. at 10 pm et on Thursday. The 'under' has gone 7-1 so far this CFL season and that's affording us with a very low total (relatively speaking) in Thursday's Week 3 opener between the Elks and Lions. The Elks offense has been non-existent so far this season. That's certainly surprising as they opened with a pair of home dates against East Division opponents in the RedBlacks and Alouettes. We did see Edmonton march the football up and down the field against Ottawa but it simply wasn't able to finish drives with 7's rather than 3's. Last week, the Elks certainly appeared to overlook the Als, and paid the price, unable to contend with Montreal's aggressive pass rush. Here, I do expect to see the Elks offense come alive on the fast track at B.C. Place. This is still an offense that features capable leaders at the skill positions on offense in QB Trevor Harris, WR Greg Ellingson and RB James Wilder. With Ellingson in particular coming off a brutal one-catch, one-yard performance last week, I expect a big bounce-back effort here. The Lions, like the Elks, boast incredible talent at the skill positions on offense but QB Mike Reilly's injury issues have held them back so far. They will welcome RB Shaq Cooper to the fold for the first time this season on Thursday, adding another level to what has the potential to be an explosive offense should Reilly be given time in the pocket to operate. As I said, I expect the Elks to break out offensively in this one while the Lions have already shown the ability to thrive in a catch-up role back in Week 1 (they nearly came all the way back from 31-0 down in a 33-29 loss). We don't need a true shootout to cash this ticket as we've been given a low total to work with. Take the over (9*). | |||||||
08-19-21 | Mystics v. Mercury UNDER 164.5 | 64-77 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Phoenix at 10 pm et on Thursday. The Mercury have posted consecutive wins coming out of the Olympic break with both of those games going 'over' the total. I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair on Thursday, however, as they welcome a Washington squad that checks in off back-to-back losses in Las Vegas. We won with the 'over' in the Mystics 10-point loss against the Aces two nights ago. They got baited into a couple of up-tempo affairs against a superior Las Vegas offense. I don't expect them to fall into the same trap here (keeping in mind, the Mercury offense certainly isn't on the same level as the Aces'). Note that Phoenix lost Skylar Diggins-Smith early in its four-point win over Indiana on Tuesday and it remains to be seen whether she'll be able to return or how effective she can be tonight. The key matchup here with be Mystics veteran Tina Charles going up against Brittney Griner. I actually think the two cancel each other out a little bit here as I'm not sure we'll see either go off offensively. While Phoenix is generally known for its offense, it has actually shot below 42% at home this season but has held its own defensively, limiting the opposition to 43.3% shooting here at home. Meanwhile, the Mystics, despite having scored 80 points or more in consecutive games in Las Vegas have shot just 42.5% as a team on the road this season, where they've managed just three wins in 11 games. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
08-19-21 | Patriots v. Eagles +1.5 | 35-0 | Loss | -109 | 33 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over New England at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. I'll make the case that the wrong team is being favored in this NFLX Week 2 kickoff matchup between the Patriots and Eagles. Yes, New England is 1-0 while Philadelphia checks in 0-1. You can be sure the Eagles are putting some emphasis on winning this game, which is their final home preseason game before wrapping up their exhibition schedule with a trip to New York to face the Jets next Friday. They actually got off to a terrific start in their opener against the Steelers last week jumping ahead 13-0 before the Steelers left them in the dust in the second half. That was a Pittsburgh squad that had a leg up having already played a preseason game. Here, the Eagles will have a more level playing field against New England with both teams having played just once. Mac Jones was the story for the Patriots last week as he impressed in a 22-13 win over the Washington Football Team. He could very well impress again this week but he's going to once again have to concede some playing time to projected starter Cam Newton, who hasn't looked particularly sharp this summer. RB Rhamondre Stevenson was also a big story for the Pats last week, putting the game away with a late 91-yard touchdown run. Keep in mind, outside of that big run he was held to just 4.0 yards per rush. As I mentioned, the Eagles did do a lot of good things in head coach Nick Sirianni's debut last week. We can expect QB Jalen Hurts to see more extensive playing time on Thursday night as Sirianni looks to give him some confidence running the offense after he made only a cameo appearance last week. Of course, Philadelphia boasts one of the stronger preseason quarterback rotations you'll find with Hurts followed by two experienced QB's in Joe Flacco and Nick Mullens. I like their depth at all of the skill positions on offense with impressive rookies WR Quez Watkins and RB Kenneth Gainwell likely to see plenty of action on Thursday as well. It's worth noting that while New England did manage to win by nine points last week, Washington did find some success passing the football, racking up 245 yards through the air - nearly doubling the Patriots production in that category. Washington also held a 22-16 first down edge. Take Philadelphia (10*). | |||||||
08-19-21 | Marlins v. Reds OVER 8 | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -114 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Cincinnati at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. The Marlins are still undecided as to who will take the mound for the opener of this four-game series in Cincinnati. Regardless who does, I'm anticipating a relatively high-scoring affair. Cincinnati is coming off consecutive low-scoring games against the Cubs after an offensive explosion on Monday. Weather conditions have been favoring the hitters all week at already hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark and there's more of the same in the forecast for Thursday. Luis Castillo will make his third straight starts on just four days' rest. He's been laboring lately, allowing 11 earned runs on 12 hits over his last two outings, spanning just 10 innings of work. He's been tagged for at least a home run in four consecutive outings. Note that his last two starts against the Marlins have totaled 14 and 13 runs. Here, he'll be facing a Marlins club that is as close to full strength as it has been all season and is coming off a three-game series against Atlanta that saw 36 total runs scored. Behind Castillo is a Reds bullpen that hasn't had a day off since August 2nd. Not surprisingly they've struggled with an ERA north of six and a 1.160 WHIP over their last seven games. Worse still, the Marlins 'pen has posted a collective 8.77 ERA and 1.95 WHIP over their last seven contests. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
08-19-21 | Angels v. Tigers +1.5 | 13-10 | Loss | -147 | 4 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 1:10 pm et on Thursday. The Angels will be looking for the sweep of the Tigers at Comerica Park on Thursday afternoon but I expect Detroit to have other ideas. Jose Quintana is back for our fading pleasure for the first time since late May. That's music to the ears of the Tigers as they've reeled off four straight wins over left-handed starters and actually own a winning record against southpaws this season. In fact, they're 23-8 when factoring in the +1.5 run-line in their last 31 games against LH starters. Quintana has of course been a train wreck this season, posting an ERA north of seven and a WHIP approaching two. Behind Quintana is an Angels bullpen that has been overworked this season and hasn't had a day off in over a week. Matt Manning got off to a brutal start for the Tigers this season but has shown signs of righting the ship lately. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in two of his last three starts and owns a respectable 3.15 ERA in four home starts this season. The Tigers are 3-1 in those four home starts with two of the victories coming against playoff contenders in the Cardinals and White Sox. Keep in mind, the Detroit bullpen, while also overworked has managed to convert 15 saves while blowing only six here at home this season. Take Detroit +1.5 runs (6*). | |||||||
08-18-21 | Brewers v. Cardinals +1.5 | 6-4 | Loss | -158 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis +1.5 runs over Milwaukee at 7:45 pm et on Wednesday. The Cardinals dropped the opener of this series by a 2-0 score last night as Corbin Burnes outdueled Adam Wainwright. We're being afforded the opportunity to back the Cardinals plus an insurance run in what should be another pitcher's duel on Wednesday and we'll take advantage. Freddy Peralta will take the ball for Milwaukee. The Brewers have won each of his last four starts. That's not their longest win streak with Peralta on the hill this season, however, as they actually won each of his five starts from May 16th to June 10th. It's worth noting though that they've yet to win five straight Peralta starts by multiple runs, something they'll be looking to do here. I expect them to fall short noting that they've won just once in Peralta's four previous starts against the Cardinals. In his lone previous outing here in St. Louis, the Brewers lost by a 5-2 score. Jack Flaherty will counter for St. Louis. He returned from injury to shut out the Royals over six innings in his last start. He's been positively dominant here at home this season, recording a 1.44 ERA and 0.72 WHIP with the Cardinals winning each of his previous four starts. Behind Flaherty is a Cards bullpen that has been terrific lately. They entered last night's game sporting a collective 2.70 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over their last seven games and proceeded to toss three shutout innings in that 2-0 loss. Take St. Louis +1.5 runs (7*). | |||||||
08-18-21 | Brewers v. Cardinals UNDER 7 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
N.L. Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and St. Louis at 7:45 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a pitcher's duel between Corbin Burnes and Adam Wainwright to open this series last night and I expect more of the same as Freddy Peralta goes up against Jack Flaherty on Wednesday. Peralta checks in sporting a 2.60 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 10 road starts this season with the 'under' cashing in six of those games. Better still, he owns a 1.88 ERA and 0.72 WHIP in 11 nighttime starts. Note that he'll be facing a Cardinals lineup that is missing a couple of key bats in Paul DeJong (back) and Dylan Carlson (wrist). Jack Flaherty made a triumphant return to the Cards rotation last Friday night as he tossed six shutout innings against the Royals (we won with the 'under'). Flaherty has made four home starts this season, recording an incredible 1.44 ERA and 0.72 WHIP. He's faced the Brewers once this season, allowing just four hits over six shutout innings in a 2-0 victory back in May. Both bullpens are reliable enough to trust in this one. Much like last night's affair, I expect this one to have a 'playoff-type' feel and prove low-scoring once again. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
08-18-21 | Angels v. Tigers UNDER 8.5 | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. We saw last night's game get 'over' the total thanks to a late scoring flurry from the Angels. I don't expect 'over' backers to be so fortunate on Wednesday, however. It's interesting to note that the 'over' has gone 3-0-1 so far on the Tigers current homestand but the 'under' remains 37-22-2 here at Comerica Park this season. Weather conditions should favor the pitchers on Wednesday night with the winds blowing in from left. Shohei Ohtani will take the ball for the Angels. Los Angeles has done an excellent job of managing his arm down the stretch as he'll be making just his sixth start since the beginning of July. He's been in excellent form, allowing only six earned runs over his last five starts, working at least six innings in all five of those outings. He faced the Tigers once previously this season, allowing just one earned run over six innings back in June. Tarik Skubal will counter for Detroit. Like Ohtani, he brings excellent form into this start having not allowed a single earned run over 11 innings in his last two outings. The 'under' has cashed in seven of his 12 home starts this season as he has posted a soldi 3.51 ERA and 1.22 WHIP at Comerica Park. The Angels bullpen has turned things around after a rough start to the season and has converted 17 saves while blowing only seven on the road this season. The Tigers 'pen coughed it up last night but has still posted 15 saves while blowing only six at home. Take the under (6*). | |||||||
08-18-21 | Indians v. Twins OVER 9.5 | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 4 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Minnesota at 1:10 pm et on Wednesday. We've seen the 'under' cash in each of the first two games in this series but I look for a different story to unfold on Wednesday afternoon. First, it's worth mentioning that weather conditions favored the pitchers the last two nights but that flips to favor the hitters on Wednesday with warm temperatures and the wind blowing toward left field. Zach Plesac will take the ball for Cleveland. Having not had a day off since July (!), the Indians could certainly use a long outing from him on Wednesday but I'm not sure they'll get it. While he did pitch into the eighth inning in his most recent start, that actually works against him here as he makes his third straight start on just four days' rest. Note that Plesac has posted an ERA north of six over his last three outings and owns a very pedestrian 4.89 ERA in eight road starts this season. He's pitched just once here at Target Field, allowing five earned runs over seven innings in an 8-4 loss last September. Lewis Thorpe will get a spot start for the Twins. In three previous starts this season he has allowed six earned runs in 13 innings, managing to record only four strikeouts to go along with four walks and 13 hits allowed. With Thorpe unlikely to work deep into the game we're likely to see plenty of a Twins bullpen that owns a collective ERA nearing five at home this season. Take the over (6*). | |||||||
08-17-21 | Pirates v. Dodgers OVER 9 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
MLB o/u Premier Play. My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a low-scoring game between these two teams last night as the Dodgers prevailed by a 2-1 score. I expect a much different story to unfold on Tuesday. Wil Crowe will take the ball for Pittsburgh. He's in a tough spot here, noting that he has posted a 6.10 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in eight road starts this season, most recently getting lit up for three home runs in his last road outing in Cincinnati. Dodger Stadium could very well play a bit like Great American Ballpark tonight with the wind blowing out to left-center and I expect the homer-happy Dodgers to take advantage of Crowe here. Note that Crowe has been tagged for six home runs in his last three road starts, covering a span of just 14 1/3 innings of work. Behind Crowe is a subpar Pirates bullpen that owns a 5.22 ERA and 1.37 WHIP on the road this season (entering last night's action). David Price will get the nod for the Dodgers. He'll once again be on a short leash here, having yet to last more than 5 2/3 innings in a start this season. He hasn't fared particularly well in his last two home starts, allowing four home runs in 11 innings. With the Dodgers bullpen having not enjoyed a day off in over a week, with some extra innings affairs in the mix, there's reason to believe that the Pirates can scratch together some offense tonight. Note that they were threatening virtually all game long last night but simply couldn't break through. It's been feast or famine for the Buccos at the plate lately but worth noting that they're only a couple of days removed from exploding for 14 runs against the Brewers on Saturday. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
08-17-21 | Mystics v. Aces OVER 170 | Top | 83-93 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
WNBA Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Las Vegas at 10 pm et on Tuesday. This is a rematch of Sunday's wild 84-83 victory for the Aces. That game stayed 'under' the total and affords us a lower posted total to work with here on Tuesday. I believe it's the wrong move. It took a while, but the Aces got on track offensively after the long Olympic break, scoring 29 points in the fourth quarter of Sunday's victory. Now I expect to see plenty of carry-over from that strong finish here. Note that the Aces average north of 93 points per game at home this season on just shy of 49% shooting. There's certainly room for improvement after Sunday's 84-point effort. I do think the Mystics will be along for the ride in what should be an up-tempo affair on Tuesday night. They'll be in a foul mood after blowing a 14-point lead entering the fourth quarter on Sunday. With Elena Delle Donne still sidelined, I think the Mystics remain a bit underrated offensively with the duo of Ariel Atkins and Myisha Hines-Allen really stepping up as the season has progressed. Washington is unlikely to go away quietly in this one and that should result in a high-scoring affair in Las Vegas. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
08-17-21 | Mets v. Giants -150 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco over New York at 9:45 pm et on Tuesday. The Giants took the opener of this series by a 7-5 score last night and I expect them to notch a second straight win over the Mets on Tuesday. While the Mets are still technically in the N.L. playoff hunt, they're facing an uphill battle. With their next nine games coming against either the Giants and Dodgers they likely won't remain in the playoff picture for long. Marcus Stroman takes the ball for New York on Tuesday. While he's pitched well, my concern is that he has lasted at least six innings in just one of his last 10 starts. That's not likely to change here as he pitches on just four days' rest. That leaves plenty of work for a tired Mets bullpen that has posted a 4.85 ERA and 1.31 WHIP with 13 saves converted and 11 blown on the road this season (entering last night's action). Logan Webb is one of the most underrated starters in baseball right now for the Giants. He checks in having allowed two earned runs or less in 10 consecutive starts. Unlike Stroman, he has shown the ability to work deep into games, working six innings in each of his last four starts and six of his last 10 overall. The Giants are a perfect 7-0 when Webb takes the ball at home this season, where he has recorded a stellar 1.62 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. Behind Webb is a San Francisco bullpen that has converted 24 saves while blowing only six at home this season, combining to record an impressive 1.09 WHIP. Take San Francisco (7*). | |||||||
08-17-21 | Mets v. Giants UNDER 8 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Tuesday. Conditions favored the pitchers last night but a couple of big innings ended up spoiling our 'under' play. Here, we have arguably a better pitching matchup with conditions once again favoring the hurlers on a warm, muggy night at Oracle Park. I'm anticipating a low-scoring affair. Marcus Stroman will start for the Mets. He checks in sporting a 2.64 ERA and 1.02 WHIP on the road this season. Going back to July 16th, his last six starts have totaled just 5, 7, 2, 8, 6 and 5 runs. Meanwhile, Giants starter Logan Webb is quite simply one of the most underrated starters in baseball right now. He has given up two earned runs or less in 10 consecutive starts, with the 'under' going 7-3 over that stretch. In fact, each of his last five outings have stayed 'under' the total. He has posted an incredible 1.62 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in seven home starts this season with all seven of those games staying 'under' the total. Take the under (9*). | |||||||
08-17-21 | Padres v. Rockies OVER 12 | 3-7 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Diego and Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday. We missed with our free play on the 'over' in this matchup last night but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Tuesday. Weather conditions will once again favor the hitters considerably in this one with warm temperatures and the wind blowing out to right-center field. Matt Strahm gets a spot start for the undermanned Padres pitching staff. He's been on the hill for just 5 1/3 innings this season and has allowed opponents to hit well north of .400. Note that he hasn't made a big league start since back in 2019. He faced the Rockies once in starting role that season and was lit up for six earned runs in just 3 1/3 innings in a 9-6 loss here at Coors Field. The Padres bullpen is beyond overworked at this point, having logged north of 500 innings on the season and 34 innings over the last seven games alone. We're starting to see some signs of regression as their relief corps has posted a collective 1.47 WHIP over those last seven contests. German Marquez will counter for Colorado. The Padres haven't enjoyed much success against him this season but his two previous starts against them came at pitcher-friendly Petco Park. In his last start against San Diego at Coors Field he allowed five earned runs on eight hits over just six innings last August. Note that Marquez has seen his ERA rise from 3.37 to 3.78 since the All-Star break. He'll pitch on just four days' rest on Tuesday after getting torched for seven earned runs over four innings against the Giants last time out. Even if Marquez is sharp tonight, it's unlikely he'll work much more than six innings, opening the door for a Rockies bullpen that has been awful at home this season, posting a collective 5.66 ERA and 1.51 WHIP with 13 saves converted and 12 blown. Take the over (9*). | |||||||
08-17-21 | Astros -192 v. Royals | 1-3 | Loss | -192 | 13 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston over Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. We missed with the Astros last night in a disappointing one-run loss but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with them on Tuesday. Despite the loss, the Astros held on to their 2.5-game advantage atop the A.L. West as the second-place A's lost as well. Houston will give the nod to Framber Valdez on Tuesday. He'll be pitching on full rest for a sixth straight turn in the rotation and we've seen signs of encouragement lately. In his most recent outing he struck out eight - his highest total since his third start of the season. Valdez checks in sporting a 3.03 ERA and 1.14 WHIP with the Astros having won four of his six road starts. Behind Valdez is an Astros bullpen that had been performing well prior to last night's shaky performance. It's worth noting that Houston left its better arms in the 'pen in that 7-6 loss. Rookie Daniel Lynch will counter for Kansas City. While the Royals have won his last two starts, he hasn't pitched particularly well. In his most recent start he allowed three earned runs on four hits and four walks in 4 2/3 innings against the Yankees. In four home starts this season he has posted a 7.00 ERA and 1.61 WHIP. The Kansas City bullpen has posted a collective 4.25 ERA and 1.26 WHIP with 13 saves converted and eight blown at home this season (entering last night's action). Take Houston (5*). | |||||||
08-17-21 | Wings v. Sky OVER 166.5 | 80-76 | Loss | -116 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Chicago at 8 pm et on Tuesday. Dallas is coming off a disappointing 21-point rout at the hands of Connecticut as it returned to the court with a thud following the Olympic break. That poor performance did come against one of the league's best defensive teams though and I would expect a solid bounce-back effort from the Wings offense here. Chicago certainly appeared to overlook a Seattle Storm squad that was missing a number of key cogs on Sunday but managed to rally in the fourth quarter to force overtime before ultimately prevailing by a bucket, 87-85. It took a while to get going but once they did, the Sky poured in 26 points in the fourth quarter and I would expect to see some progression from their offense here against one of the league's weakest defensive teams in the Wings. Note that the last time these two teams met back in July they combined to score 191 points in a Wings home victory (we won with Dallas in that game). While this one might not reach that lofty total I do think it will eclipse the very reasonable number the books are offering. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
08-17-21 | Cubs v. Reds -148 | 2-1 | Loss | -148 | 12 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cincinnati over Chicago at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Reds throttled the Cubs in the opener of this series last night (we won with the 'over') as they continue to put pressure on the Padres (who lost last night) in the N.L. Wild Card race. I look for Cincinnati to continue its winning ways against the reeling Cubs on Tuesday. Kyle Hendricks will take the ball for Chicago. He can't feel great about the team that's left around him although it's not as if he's been doing himself any favors with his recent performance either. Hendricks was lit up for nine earned runs on 11 hits over just four innings in a 17-4 loss to the Brewers last time out. Now he starts in Cincinnati where the Cubs have lost his last four starts. As I noted in yesterday's analysis, the Cubs bullpen is in absolute shambles right now. They entered last night's game sporting an 8.78 ERA and 1.77 WHIP over their last seven games and then proceeded to give up a whopping 11 earned runs in four innings. Cincinnati will counter for Vladimir Gutierrez. After a shaky stretch in the middle of the season, Gutierrez has once again turned things around, allowing only five earned runs over his last four starts, covering a span of 25 1/3 innings of work. Not surprisingly, the Reds won each of those four games (by a combined 37-11 margin). Gutierrez has faced the Cubs twice this season (both times prior to Chicago's sell-off at the trade deadline) and given up just three earned runs in 11 1/3 innings. The Reds bullpen certainly hasn't been great this season but does come into this one in relatively good shape having only had to work a combined 26 innings over their last eight games. Arguably their worst reliever, Heath Hembree, labored through 2/3 of an inning last night, allowing five earned runs so he likely won't be available tonight (that's not a bad thing). Take Cincinnati (7*). | |||||||
08-16-21 | Mets v. Giants -180 | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco over New York at 9:45 pm et on Monday. The Mets are still technically in the N.L. playoff hunt but with just five wins in their last 17 games and now looking up at two teams in the N.L. East and even further back in the N.L. Wild Card picture, it's highly unlikely we'll see them playing in October. Look for the Giants to add to their misery on Monday. Rich Hill will take the ball for New York. You have to go all the way back to June to find the last time he lasted beyond the fifth inning. He's topped out at four strikeouts in his last five outings. Here, he'll be facing a Giants team that sits 22 games over .500 at home this season, where they average five runs per game. Behind Hill is a Mets bullpen that just hasn't been the same on the road this season, posting a collective 4.85 ERA and 1.43 WHIP with 13 saves converted and 11 blown. Kevin Gausman has recorded a 3.21 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 10 home starts this season with the Giants winning six of those games. While his recent results have been a little uneven, his stuff has still been there as he's struck out at least eight in two of his last three starts and in his last two outings, allowed just two earned runs in 11 innings with no home runs given up. The Giants bullpen entered yesterday's game sporting a collective 3.39 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with 22 saves converted and only six blown at home this season. Take San Francisco (5*). | |||||||
08-16-21 | Mets v. Giants UNDER 8.5 | 5-7 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Monday. We saw a very high-scoring game involving the Mets last night as they were blown out at home against the Dodgers. Here, as they hit the road to face the N.L. West leading Giants, I'm anticipating a much lower-scoring affair. Oracle Park in San Francisco has long been known as a pitcher's park and that should hold true on Monday night with cool temperatures and the wind blowing out - but to the deepest part of the park - favoring the pitchers. Rich Hill will start for the Mets. He has posted a 1.21 WHIP in 10 road starts this season and is trending to the 'under' right now having posted a 2-4-1 o/u mark in his last seven outings. The Giants have been a weaker offensive team against left-handed pitching this season, averaging 4.2 runs per game compared to their overall average of 4.9 runs per game. Kevin Gausman counters for San Francisco. He has posted a stellar 0.97 WHIP at home this season. Gausman checks in having allowed only two earned runs in 11 innings over his last two outings. Note that the Mets have scored more than five runs in a game just once since July 23rd. The probability of an offensive breakout here is relatively low. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
08-16-21 | Padres -126 v. Rockies | 5-6 | Loss | -126 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego over Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Monday. The Padres looked awful to start their series in Arizona, dropping three straight games. That all changed yesterday though as Fernando Tatis Jr. returned to the lineup and San Diego rolled to an 8-2 victory on the strength of two Tatis home runs. They can't afford to let their foot off the gas here though as their grip on an N.L. Wild Card spot remains loose. The Rockies are of course just playing out the string at this point. They managed to win just one game on their six-game road trip to Houston and San Francisco. Yes, they've been a much better team at home this season but I think they'll be hard-pressed to outslug the Padres in this one. Ryan Weathers gets the start for San Diego. He's been awful lately and it all started with an ugly performance against these same Rockies on July 30th. Starting on the road might just be the best thing for him at this point, noting that he has posted a stellar 2.28 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 23 2/3 innings of work away from home this season. He'll have a short leash as usual on Monday. With this very short price, I think bettors are putting a little too much stock in the struggling Weathers starting. He could very well only make a cameo appearance should things not go his way early in this one. Antonio Senzatela will counter for Colorado. He owns a miserable 5.97 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in seven starts against N.L. West opponents this season including one outing against the Padres in which he was tagged for four earned runs in five innings. With weather conditions favoring the hitters on Monday night at what is already a hitter-friendly ballpark, I expect Senzatela to struggle against a Padres lineup that is downright scary with Fernando Tatis Jr. back in the mix. Of course, even if Senzatela comes up with a solid outing there's little reason to have faith in the Rockies bullpen, which has recorded a collective 5.58 ERA and 1.51 WHIP at home this season. Take San Diego (5*). | |||||||
08-16-21 | Indians v. Twins UNDER 10 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
MLB Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Monday. Neither Cal Quantrill or Griffin Jax are household names, but both have been pitching exceptionally well lately and I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair featuring the two young starters on Monday. The Indians are of course coming off an 11-run outburst in Detroit yesterday. Performances like that have been few and far between for this fading club lately though, as they had been held to four runs or less in four of their last five games prior to yesterday's contest. Better than their offensive production was the fact that starter Triston McKenzie gave them eight strong innings, meaning only closer Emmanuel Clase (who hadn't pitched since August 10th) was used out of the bullpen, giving that group a much-needed rest (Cleveland hasn't had a day off since July 26th). Cal Quantrill is locked in for the Indians right now having allowed two earned runs or less in six consecutive starts. He's worked at least into the sixth inning in five straight and seven of his last eight outings. He enters this outing sporting a 3.14 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in eight nighttime starts, with the 'under' going 5-2-1 in those contests. Griffin Jax was shaky in his big league debut back in early July but has settled down considerably since, allowing just six earned runs in 20 1/3 innings over his last four outings. In his most recent start, Jax worked a career high six innings and struck out 10 against a red hot White Sox lineup. Behind Jax is an improving Twins bullpen that entered yesterday's action sporting a collective 3.72 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with three saves converted and none blown over their last seven games. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
08-16-21 | Astros -148 v. Royals | 6-7 | Loss | -148 | 12 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston over Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The Astros dropped the series finale against the Angels yesterday but that was after winning the first two games. Look for them to bounce back on Monday as they look to solidify their grip on the A.L. West Division lead. Jake Odorizzi will take the ball for Houston. While he owns an ugly ERA north of five on the road this season, his WHIP sits at a respectable 1.19. After a rough stretch, he bounced back in his most recent outing, allowing just three hits over five shutout innings against the Rockies. Behind Odorizzi is an Astros bullpen that has been lights out lately, entering yesterday's action sporting a collective 1.42 ERA and 0.95 WHIP over their last seven contests. Carlos Hernandez will counter for Kansas City. The left-hander has pitched well lately, allowing only two earned runs in 17 2/3 innings over his last three starts. Let's not get too excited though. He has topped out at four strikeouts in three of his last four outings. He's still averaging less than five innings per start which means we'll likely see plenty of the Royals bullpen, which owns a 4.39 ERA and 1.29 WHIP with 13 saves converted and eight blown at home this season. Take Houston (6*). | |||||||
08-16-21 | Cubs v. Reds OVER 9 | 5-14 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Cincinnati at 7:10 pm et on Monday. The ball has been flying all over Great American Ballpark since mid-July but with the Reds coming off a week long road trip perhaps a lot of bettors have forgotten about their strong 11-4 o/u trend here at home. Over their last two homestands, the Reds have seen their games reach totals of 17, 11, 8, 26, 7, 7, 11, 8, 16, 12, 11, 11, 10, 14 and 5 runs - good for an average of 11.6 runs per game. With weather conditions once again favoring the hitters on Monday night, look for that 'over' trend to continue. The Cubs aren't scoring with much consistency right now but they did prove they're not completely lifeless at the dish when they plated 10 runs this past Friday night in Miami. A trip to Cincinnati could be good for them as they get to face Reds starter Wade Miley on Monday, noting that they've already seen him three times this season and have had some success, racking up 22 hits and eight walks in just 16 innings. They faced him once last year here in Cincinnati as well, chasing him before the end of the second inning but not before scoring five earned runs. I realize that this isn't the same Cubs squad post-trade deadline but there are still plenty of holdovers capable of giving Miley a rough ride on Monday. Rookie Justin Steele is one of the Cubs top pitching prospects but this isn't an ideal second big league start after he gave up a pair of home runs and three earned runs (while striking out just one) in five innings against the Brewers last week. Note that the Reds have scored at least six runs in eight of their last 12 games, plating 10 or more runs on three different occasions over that stretch. With Steele unlikely to work deep into this game we should see plenty of a Chicago bullpen that is in absolute shambles right now. Cubs relievers have posted a collective 8.78 ERA and 1.77 WHIP over their last seven games. Take the over (6*). | |||||||
08-16-21 | Granada v. Villarreal -147 | 0-0 | Loss | -147 | 16 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Villarreal over Granada at 2 pm et on Monday. Some will expect a letdown from Villarreal here after it fell on penalty kicks in the UEFA Super Cup against Chelsea last week. Instead, I see that as an excellent jumping off point as they kick off an important La Liga season on Monday. After finishing a somewhat disappointing seventh in La Liga action last year, Villarreal will have its sights set on loftier goals this year. Keep in mind, by winning the Europa League title over Manchester United, it has locked up a spot in 2021-22 Champions League play - all in all it's a very important season for the Yellow Submarine. Granada finished last season in ninth place in La Liga. That was actually a step back, however, as it had finished seventh the year previous, which marked its return to top level football in Spain. Note that while Granada has notched three victories in five preseason friendly matches, the last two victories came against the likes of Linense and Malaga. It will obviously be taking a significant step up in class here. If Villarreal is to improve on its standing over last year, it would certainly be well-served to pick up all three points in a match like this, especially considering it only managed a 2-2 draw the last time it met Granada. I expect to see the Yellow Submarine build off of its strong showing against Chelsea and get off to a winning start to the La Liga season with a win on Monday. Take Villarreal (5*). | |||||||
08-15-21 | Dodgers v. Mets UNDER 8 | Top | 14-4 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
MLB Sunday Night Baseball First Five Innings Total of the Year. My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Los Angeles and New York at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. After consecutive extra innings affairs, we'll look to avoid the bullpens in this one and play the 'first five innings' under the total. Max Scherzer will get his third start with the Dodgers after his most recent outing was cut short due to rain. Scherzer should have a live arm after working just 3 1/3 innings before the rain moved in earlier this week against the Phillies. Scherzer has not surprisingly pitched well in Dodger Blue, allowing just two earned runs while striking out 16 and walking just one in 10 1/3 innings of work since joining Los Angeles. He checks in sporting a 3.00 ERA and 1.03 WHIP on the road this season. The Mets are hoping Carlos Carrasco can pick them up after back-to-back one-run extra inning losses. After pitching reasonably well in his first two starts of the season he had a rough outing last time out. It was really the story of a bad start as he gave up consecutive singles before Juan Soto touched him up for a three-run home run to start the game. In limited work this season, Carrasco has posted an impressively-low 29.0% hard-hit ball percentage to go along with a 48.4% ground ball percentage. I look for him to bounce back here. Take the first five innings under (10*). | |||||||
08-15-21 | Yankees v. White Sox -174 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -174 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
MLB Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago over New York at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. A letdown wasn't all that surprising after the White Sox beat the Yankees in thrilling fashion in the 'Field of Dreams' game on Thursday. New York got the better of Chicago last night but I look for the White Sox to answer back on Sunday afternoon. Nestor Cortes Jr. will take the ball for New York. He's pitched well in five starts this season, however he has allowed three home runs in his last two outings, covering a span of just 10 2/3 innings and will pitch on just four days' rest on Sunday. The White Sox are obviously a tough opponent, noting they entered yesterday's action 19 games over .500 at home this season, outscoring the opposition by 1.2 runs per game. Note that the Yankees bullpen entered last night's game having logged a whopping 34 innings over their last seven games and then proceeded to work another five in a 10-inning affair. While the New York relief corps has held up well, this is not an ideal spot. Lucas Giolito will counter for Chicago. He's coming off a stellar eight-inning performance against the Twins, allowing just one earned run. Here, he'll be pitching on a full five days' rest. He owns a solid 3.73 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 11 home starts this season. A stark contrast to the Yankees bullpen, the White Sox 'pen has worked among the fewest innings in baseball this season, a total of 369 entering last night's action. They've been at their best in day games this season, recording a collective 3.71 ERA and 1.27 WHIP with 14 saves converted and only six blown. Take Chicago (10*). | |||||||
08-15-21 | Panthers v. Colts OVER 34 | 18-21 | Win | 100 | 6 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Carolina and Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Panthers have a bit of a unique position battle going on at quarterback with P.J. Walker and Will Grier fighting for the backup job to Sam Darnold. Head coach Matt Rhule has indicated he may only keep two quarterbacks on the roster which means one of Walker or Grier could be left without a job at the end of the preseason. Here, I look for Carolina to go with a more pass-heavy attack than we're accustomed to seeing in the preseason as Rhule looks to evaluate his quarterbacks. Meanwhile, the Colts have a QB battle of their own with Jacob Eason and Sam Ehlinger fighting for the starting job - at least until Carson Wentz returns from injury. All indications are that both have impressed at training camp. We should see both get extended playing time in this one as head coach Frank Reich looks for some clarity as to who deserves the starting job in Week 1. This has certainly been a low-scoring preseason so far and that helps keep this total at a very reasonable number on Sunday afternoon. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
08-14-21 | Seahawks v. Raiders OVER 37 | Top | 7-20 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
NFLX Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Oakland at 9 pm et on Saturday. It's easy to forget that both of these teams have relatively high-scoring preseason track records after last year's exhibition schedule was scrapped entirely. That's not a real surprise as neither defense is great to begin with but get into the second and third levels in the depth chart and there are some real holes. There's a reason that this is one of the highest posted totals on the Week 1 NFLX board. Both sides do boast significant depth at the skill positions on offense. Perhaps one of the lone exceptions is the wide receiver position for Seattle. With that being said, that should lead to the Seahawks airing it out a little more than you might expect in this one as they evaluate the wide receivers that are battling for the number three spot behind DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. I like the QB rotations in this one and on the fast track at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, I'm anticipating a fairly high-scoring contest between these NFC-AFC West Division counterparts on Saturday night. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
08-14-21 | Padres -200 v. Diamondbacks | 0-7 | Loss | -200 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego over Arizona at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. With the Reds breathing down their neck in the N.L. Wild Card race the Padres can ill afford to drop a third straight game to the lowly D'Backs on Saturday. Joe Musgrove will get the nod for San Diego. He's been the Padres most reliable starter lately, allowing two earned runs or less while working at least six innings in each of his last four starts. Over his last three outings he's struck out 23 while walking only five. The last two times Musgrove has faced the D'Backs he's tossed 13 innings of four-hit shutout ball. Behind Musgrove is a Padres bullpen that has fared well against division opponents, entering last night's action sporting a 2.81 ERA and 1.18 WHIP with 16 saves converted and only six blown. Rookie left-hander Tyler Gilbert will start for the D'Backs. He's worked out of the bullpen over the last few weeks and I wouldn't expect him to last deep into this game on Saturday. Of course, the Arizona bullpen has been awful this season, recording a collective 5.45 ERA and 1.53 WHIP with only nine saves converted and 11 blown here at home (entering last night's action). Take San Diego (5*). | |||||||
08-14-21 | Montreal v. Edmonton Elks OVER 46.5 | Top | 30-13 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
CFL o/u Premier Play. My selection is on the 'over' between Montreal and Edmonton at 7 pm et on Saturday. We've seen plenty of low-scoring games to open this CFL season - likely a product of their being no preseason this year. Here, I do think we'll see a little more offense as the Elks already have a game under their belts while the Als had an extra week of practice, and I expect them to be considerably stronger offensively than defensively once again. The Als certainly improved their pass rush in the offseason, with their big acquisition being former Elk Almondo Sewell. However, I do feel that Elks QB Trevor Harris should be able to get the ball out quickly enough to his talented group of wide receivers to find some offensive success in this one. There was plenty of rust last week as the Elks moved the football but couldn't finish drives with touchdowns. Against a weak Als secondary, there's reason to believe some of those field goal drives will turn into touchdowns here. The Als offense is virtually intact from 2019. There is top talent at all the skill positions, led by QB Vernon Adams Jr. and RB William Stanback. While the RedBlacks below average offense wasn't able to do much against Edmonton last week, I'm confident we'll see the Als open things up here. Keep in mind, when these two teams last met in the 2019 playoffs, we saw 66 total points scored. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
08-14-21 | Reds v. Phillies OVER 10 | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
MLB o/u Premier Play. My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Philadelphia at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the 'over' in this matchup last night but despite a well-pitched game from both starters we still had an opportunity to cash with the potential 'over-clinching' run at the plate in the ninth inning. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play, noting that weather conditions once again favor the hitters in Philadelphia. Luis Castillo gets the start for Cincinnati. We won with the 'over' in this most recent start - a 9-3 loss in Cleveland on Monday. Castillo will once again pitch on just four days' rest on Saturday - the third time he will have done so in his last four outings. He's now been tagged for five home runs in his last three starts and as I mentioned, conditions should favor the hitters at Citizens Bank Park on Saturday. Castillo checks in sporting a 5.40 ERA and 1.45 WHIP with the 'over' cashing in eight of his 12 road starts this season. Behind Castillo is a Reds bullpen that held up well last night but has generally struggled this season, entering last night's action sporting a collective 4.51 ERA and 1.43 WHIP with 19 saves converted and 13 blown on the road this season. Note that the Reds haven't had a day off since August 2nd. Matt Moore will get a spot start for the Phillies on Saturday. He's generally been awful this season, posting a 9.30 ERA and 2.02 WHIP in five home starts. With Moore averaging just over four innings per start we're likely to see plenty of the Phillies bullpen. Their relief corps has posted a collective 4.82 ERA and 1.46 WHIP with 15 saves converted and nine blown at home this season. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
08-14-21 | Dolphins v. Bears -3.5 | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 126 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago minus the points over Miami at 1 pm et on Saturday. The Bears are one of the biggest favorites on the NFL preseason Week 1 board and they're favored for a reason in my opinion. Chicago is in desperate need of a spark right out of the gate following another disappointing campaign. The Bears boast arguably the best QB rotation in the preseason with veterans Andy Dalton and Nick Foles book-ending potential standout rookie Justin Fields. Any or all of the three are capable of guiding the offense on touchdown drives against the Dolphins on Saturday. Meanwhile, Miami has already been dealing with a number of key injuries at training camp and I see it as a team that is simply looking to come out of this game unscathed injury-wise, with perhaps a few positive moments from QB Tua Tagovailoa to take away as well. The Dolphins may give veteran backup QB Jacoby Brissett the bulk of the snaps in this one but he's learning a new offense with unfamiliar faces after coming over from the Colts. The Dolphins are reportedly active in the trade market right now as they look for help on the offensive line. That's obviously not a good sign - again, they'll simply be looking to turn in a clean performance and avoid any more injuries and certainly won't look to put their quarterbacks under too much duress in this one. Expect a rather 'safe' offensive gameplan from the 'Fins in this one. |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ricky Tran | $756 |
ProSportsPicks | $632 |
Joseph D'Amico | $510 |
Joey Tron | $450 |
Tom Macrina | $399 |
Nick Parsons | $344 |
Sean Murphy | $306 |
Jack Jones | $303 |
William Burns | $233 |
Dan Kaiser | $220 |