Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11-02-19 | TCU v. Oklahoma State UNDER 59 | 27-34 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between TCU and Oklahoma State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. TCU is coming off a huge 37-27 win over Texas last Saturday and fresh off that offensive breakout, most are expecting a shootout in Stillwater this week. I’m not so easily convinced. Keep in mind, prior to last week’s win, the Horned Frogs had scored just 41 points combined in dropping back-to-back games against Iowa State and Kansas State – both on the road. Oklahoma State by no means possesses an elite defense but I do think the Cowboys can keep the Horned Frogs inconsistent offense in check on Saturday. On the flip side, the TCU defense has shown signs of turning things around over the last couple of weeks. They didn’t give up a touchdown until four minutes into the second quarter last week against Texas and when it mattered most they stepped up, allowing just one second half touchdown. The Horned Frogs will undoubtedly have their hands full trying to slow down dynamic Cowboys RB Chuba Hubbard on Saturday but it’s worth noting that they’ve allowed just one 100+ yard rusher this season and that was Iowa State QB Brock Purdy, who gained 102 yards on the ground against them. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
11-02-19 | Marshall -11.5 v. Rice | 20-7 | Win | 100 | 18 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on Marshall minus the points over Rice at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. This was a blowout last year as Marshall rolled to a 41-14 victory and I’m expecting more of the same on Saturday. Rice checks in 0-8 on the campaign but the fact that it has at least kept things somewhat competitive helps keep the line in check here. RB Aston Walter suffered a shoulder injury last week and while he is expected to play, he won’t be at full strength. You can be sure the Thundering Herd have been keying their defensive gameplan on Walter as he’s proven to be the Owls only true playmaker on offense this season. Marshall hasn’t been able to take a breath in a few weeks, coming off back-to-back tightly-contested affairs against Florida Atlantic and Western Kentucky (it won both games). The Thundering Herd have faced a truly difficult schedule to this point but now get four straight winnable games to close out the season to improve their Bowl positioning. Look for them to take full advantage of this blowout waiting to happen against one of the nation’s weakest FBS teams. Take Marshall (10*). | |||||||
11-02-19 | Old Dominion v. Florida International -17.5 | Top | 17-24 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
CFB C-USA Game of the Year. My selection is on Florida International minus the points over Old Dominion at 12 noon et on Saturday. I love the bounce back spot for FIU here as it returns home following a beatdown at the hands of Middle Tennessee State last week. The loss dropped the Panthers to 4-4 on the season but they remain very much in contention for a Bowl game. That certainly depends on getting a win here, and I’m confident we’ll see them secure the victory in convincing fashion. At 1-7, Old Dominion is a true doormat this season. The Monarchs lone victory came back in August against FCS squad Norfolk State. They check into this one having scored just one offensive touchdown in their last 11 quarters of football. FIU has certainly shown blowout potential here at home this season, where it owns victories by 13, 44, 25 and 15-point margins, its lone home loss coming against a quality opponent in Western Kentucky – a game in which it covered the spread. Note that Panthers QB James Morgan has been quietly efficient, throwing seven touchdowns and no interceptions over his last four games. Meanwhile, RB Anthony Jones has rushed for 421 yards on just 72 carries, while finding the end zone five times over that same stretch. The Panthers are heavily favored for a reason in this early start matchup. I’ll lay the points. Take Florida International (10*). | |||||||
11-02-19 | Northern Illinois v. Central Michigan UNDER 51 | 10-48 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Northern Illinois and Central Michigan at 12 noon et on Saturday. We missed the mark with the ‘under’ in Northern Illinois’ last game, a 49-0 rout of lowly Akron last Saturday. I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here, however. The Huskies offense has been inconsistent this season and will certainly be stepping up in class here off the win over the Zips. I’m confident we’ll see them keep their offensive gameplan focused on the ground where RB Tre Harbison has been terrific. That strategy should help keep the chains, and more important for us, the clock moving. Central Michigan entered last week’s date with Buffalo on a serious roll offensively but that had more to do with the level of opposition it had faced through the first three weeks of October than anything else (the Chippewas faced Eastern Michigan, New Mexico State and Bowling Green over a three-week stretch). Last week, the Chips could only manage 20 points in a blowout loss to Buffalo, turning the football over four times in the process. Much like NIU, I look for CMU to keep the football on the ground for much of the afternoon on Saturday, with RB Jonathan Ward having rushed for over 100 yards in four of his last five games. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
11-01-19 | Navy v. Connecticut UNDER 55 | Top | 56-10 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
CFB AAC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Navy and Connecticut at 8 pm et on Friday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in Navy's high-scoring win over Tulane last week but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as the Midshipmen hit the road to face lowly UConn on a short week. Last week's high-scoring result was certainly game script dependent as Tulane simply couldn't stop the Navy offense early on, digging a 24-0 hole just five minutes into the second quarter. From there things really opened up. I expect a different story to unfold here. Connecticut stunningly put up 56 points in a win at UMass last week but will face a much tougher challenge here. Note that prior to last week's performance, the Huskies had scored 22 points or less in five straight games and had topped out at 24 points, that coming in a season-opening win over FCS squad Wagner. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-31-19 | 49ers v. Cardinals +10.5 | 28-25 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona plus the points over San Francisco at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. Most believe a 49ers win is a foregone conclusion in this one as San Francisco checks in with an unblemished record on the season while the Cardinals are coming off a beatdown at the hands of the Saints in New Orleans last Sunday. I don't believe the Niners are built to cover these big pointspreads, however, and here will face an improving Arizona squad that has won three of its last four games and hasn't allowed a first quarter touchdown in its last two contests. The Cards are likely going to be missing their top two running backs for this one but did acquire Kenyon Drake from the Dolphins earlier this week and it really hasn't mattered who they have plugged in at running back, they have performed well. San Francisco will be content to win this division road game, let alone cover the spread. We'll grab the points with a hungry Cards squad that has gone an impressive 5-3 ATS to date. Take Arizona (10*). | |||||||
10-30-19 | Pacers v. Nets -3.5 | 118-108 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Brooklyn minus the points over Indiana at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Pacers are off to a winless start through three games and I don't see them finally getting into the win column in Brooklyn on Wednesday. Indiana checks in a miserable 22nd in the league in offensive rating and it has been even worse at the defensive end of the floor, ranking 25th in defensive rating. That's not to mention the fact the Pacers sit second-last in terms of pace rating. The Nets figure to take full advantage, noting that they rank fifth in the league in pace rating while sitting a solid eighth in offensive rating through their first three games. Take Brooklyn (10*). | |||||||
10-29-19 | Grizzlies v. Lakers -11.5 | 91-120 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Memphis at 10:35 pm et on Tuesday. I don't like the setup for the Grizzlies in this one as they head to Los Angeles to take on the Lakers. This is an interesting matchup as the Grizzlies rank second in the league in pace rating while the Lakers check in second to last. I see this game going one of two ways. Either the Grizz try to push the tempo and get run out of the gym as the Lakers check in top 10 in the league in offensive rating while the Grizzlies are bottom-eight in defensive rating. Or the Lakers impose their will and slow this game to a crawl while the Memphis 26th ranked offensive rating rears its ugly head. Either way, I look for Los Angeles to cover the number. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
10-28-19 | Dolphins v. Steelers OVER 43 | 14-27 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Pittsburgh at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I'll keep it simple with my analysis of this play on Monday night. Both offenses have struggled at times this season, due to injuries and otherwise but I do feel the two units have some upside heading into this one. The Dolphins were finally able to get things going a little bit last week, scoring 21 points against a good defense in Buffalo. WR Davante Parker has now scored a touchdown in three straight games which is saying something for an offense that couldn't do anything earlier in the campaign. RB Kenyon Drake didn't travel with the team as he is likely to be traded before the deadline but his absence doesn't concern me all that much. Look for the Fins to do what they can to move the football through the air in this particular matchup. The Steelers are in a smash spot offensively against an awful, undermanned Miami defense. Pittsburgh will get QB Mason Rudolph back under center following its bye week and I'm confident he'll can march the offense up and down the field against a very beatable opponent. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-27-19 | Packers v. Chiefs +5 | 31-24 | Loss | -102 | 26 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas City plus the points over Green Bay at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. The last time we saw the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football they suffered a shocking loss to the Colts. That was with Patrick Mahomes at the helm. Now Kansas City enters this primetime showdown with journeyman QB Matt Moore under center and few are giving it much of a chance against the red hot Packers. I don't expect the Chiefs to simply roll over. Kansas City has been all over opposing quarterbacks this season and Sunday should be no different against the Packers mediocre offensive line. Note that the Chiefs will have DT Chris Jones back at their disposal, and his presence should really limit the Packers ability to rip off big gains on the ground. Green Bay's passing game has held up well in WR DaVante Adams absence, but this could be the contest where that starts to turn. Defensively, the Packers have been abused by opposing rushing attacks, allowing just a tick shy of five yards per rush this season. That opens the door for the Chiefs limited offense in the absence of Mahomes. As we saw last Thursday night against an elite defense in Denver, even Matt Moore is able to find some success with the talent of WR Tyreek Hill on the field. I'm not sure the Chiefs offense will even be asked to do too much to keep this one competitive, but they might just come through regardless. Take Kansas City (10*). | |||||||
10-27-19 | Raiders v. Texans -6 | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 34 m | Show |
NFL Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Houston minus the points over Oakland at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. The Raiders are in a really tough spot here, still on the road at the tail-end of what has been an excruciatingly long stretch of games away from home and coming off an epic beatdown at the hands of the Packers last Sunday. Things don't figure to get any easier in Houston on Sunday as the Texans enter a terrific bounce-back spot off last week's divisional loss in Indianapolis. QB DeShaun Watson and the Texans offense should have a field day against the Raiders undermanned defense, which dealt top CB Gareon Conley to Houston earlier in the week. The Raiders haven't exactly waved the white flag just yet, but at 3-3 the time is coming. Offensively, Oakland has been better than expected but with RB Josh Jacobs limited and possibly even sidelined by a shoulder injury, it will be in a really difficult situation here. Jacobs has been a dynamic playmaker but the Raiders don't have much depth in the backfield. While I'm not all that high on the Texans defense, I do think they'll be playing from ahead for much of the day on Sunday, and can gameplan aggressively against mistake-prone QB Derek Carr. Look for Houston to eventually stretch out the margin in this one. Take Houston (10*). | |||||||
10-27-19 | Panthers v. 49ers UNDER 41.5 | 13-51 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Carolina and San Francisco at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. The Panthers are coming off a wild, high-scoring affair in London two weeks ago as they routed the Bucs in a key divisional win. Here, Carolina hits the road to face the upstart 49ers and could be in for a rough ride against one of the best defensive teams in the league. San Francisco is allowing just over four yards per rush this season and should be able to effectively limit Panthers do-it-all RB Christian McCaffrey. The 49ers pass defense just doesn't give up big plays and that sets them up well against the Panthers downfield passing game led by elite athletes Curtis Samuel and D.J. Moore. I don't expect the Carolina defense to roll over. The Panthers 'd' catches a favorable matchup against a 49ers offense that has been good, but certainly not great this season. QB Jimmy Garoppolo should be under pressure for much of the afternoon with offensive linemen Joe Staley and Mike McGlinchey still sidelined. While the Panthers have given up their share of yardage to opposing ground games, the 49ers backfield isn't all that imposing. Expect a tightly-contested affair. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-27-19 | Jets +7.5 v. Jaguars | Top | 15-29 | Loss | -140 | 20 h 35 m | Show |
NFL AFC Game of the Month. My selection is on New York plus the points over Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Jets are coming off a dreadful performance on both sides of the football on Monday night against the Patriots. I do feel they'll bounce back here, however, as they head to Jacksonville to face the Jaguars. The Jags defense has been exploited by opposing running backs this season as they check in allowing just shy of five yards per rush. Off a poor offensive showing on Monday, look for the Jets to feed RB Le'Veon Bell in this one. On the flip side, the Jets defense has been exceptional against the run, allowing just north of 3.2 yards per rush. That should severely limit what the Jags are able to do offensively, as despite all the Gardner Minshew hype, QB Leonard Fournette has been, and will continue to be the key to their offense. Take New York (10*). | |||||||
10-27-19 | Bengals v. Rams -11 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 19 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. This one has blowout written all over it as the Rams aim to follow-up last week's 'get right' win over Atlanta and head across the pond for what should be a much-needed distraction in what has been a bit of a tumultuous start to the season. The Bengals are awful. They can't stop the run, continue to deal with key injuries in the secondary, and sport an uneven offense that has been completely handicapped by an ineffictive offensive line. We can count on Rams QB Jared Goff to turn in a second straight solid performance facing little pressure against a non-existent Cincinnati pass rush. Meanwhile, the Rams backfield tandem of Todd Gurley and Darrell Henderson should run wild against a Bengals defense that allows just shy of five yards per rush this season, effectively putting this game away in the second half. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
10-26-19 | Notre Dame v. Michigan UNDER 51.5 | 14-45 | Loss | -109 | 30 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Notre Dame and Michigan at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. We won with the ‘under’ when these two teams hooked up to kick off the season last year and I’ll make the same play here. The Irish are coming off three consecutive relatively high-scoring affairs in which they put up a combined 117 points. I’m not counting on QB Ian Book and the Notre Dame offense to bust out again here, however. Michigan has one of the best defenses in the country, and will certainly be up for this showdown at the Big House. I’m confident we’ll see the Irish lean heavily on RB Tony Jones Jr. off three straight 100+ yard rushing performances but he’ll be stepping up in competition after running all over Virginia, Bowling Green and USC. We’ve already seen the Wolverines offense get stymied on a number of occasions this season and should expect no different here. I don’t think we’ll see Jim Harbaugh throw QB Shea Patterson to the wolves here. Look for him to once again be asked to manage the game and avoid the big mistakes against an opportunistic Irish defense. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-26-19 | Texas State v. Arkansas State -11 | Top | 14-38 | Win | 100 | 29 h 18 m | Show |
CFB Sun Belt Game of the Year. My selection is on Arkansas State minus the points over Texas State at 7 pm et on Saturday. Texas State has somewhat surprisingly held its own in most games this season but still checks in sporting a 2-4 record. Arkansas State has been up and down and comes into this one off of back-to-back losses. Notably, last week’s 17-point loss on paper could have really gone either away as Louisiana-Lafayette pulled away with a couple of late touchdowns. I do still feel the Red Wolves are one of the better teams in the Sun Belt and if they have their sights set on Bowl eligibility, this is a game they need to get. I expect them to win this one comfortably. QB Layne Hatcher has thrown for 10 touchdowns over his last game and last week we saw RB Marcel Murray carry a full workload, running 35 times for 164 yards while adding three catches. Texas State QB Gresch Jensen suffered a concussion last week and the Bobcats top rusher Caleb Twyford is actually a wide receiver that has run for more than 78 yards only once this season. Arkansas State took this matchup 33-7 last season and I’m anticipating another blowout here. Take Arkansas State (10*). | |||||||
10-26-19 | Texas v. TCU UNDER 57 | 27-37 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Texas and TCU at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We won with the ‘under’ in TCU’s loss at Kansas State last week and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. The Horned Frogs didn’t find the end zone until the second quarter in last week’s contest, and when the game was on the line, couldn’t score a single touchdown in the game’s final 23+ minutes. The fact is, TCU has had considerable offensive success in just two of five games this season and one of those came against lowly Kansas, who Texas hung 50 points on last week. The Longhorns know they’ll need to be better defensively after giving up a stunning 48 points against the Jayhawks last Saturday. I’m confident they’ll respond favorably here after holding TCU to just 16 points in last year’s matchup. Note that just two weeks ago, Texas held mighty Oklahoma out of the end zone from just under 10 minutes left in the first quarter until midway through the third quarter. The Longhorns may not have an elite defense this season, but it’s not as if they’re facing an offensive juggernaut on Saturday. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-26-19 | Tulane v. Navy UNDER 58 | Top | 38-41 | Loss | -117 | 26 h 51 m | Show |
CFB AAC Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Tulane and Navy at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. These two teams combined to score 57 points in last year’s matchup – a narrow one-point Green Wave victory. I’m anticipating a lower-scoring affair this time around. Tulane is fresh off a beatdown at the hands of Memphis last week. The Green Wave are certainly a better defensive team than they showed in that contest. Memphis went into that one highly-motivated after suffering its first loss of the season the week previous at Temple. Navy has been rolling along, scoring a whopping 114 points over the course of its current three-game winning streak. Keep in mind, those wins came against Air Force, Tulsa and South Florida. Just two weeks ago Tulane gave up only seven points in a blowout win over Connecticut, allowing the Huskies to gain just 134 yards through the air and less than 100 on the ground. This is obviously a much tougher matchup but my point is, the Green Wave are capable of stiffening up defensively. Remember, earlier this season they gave up just 24 points on the road against Auburn, holding the Tigers off the scoreboard for the entire first quarter and giving up just a single touchdown in the second half. Navy’s lone defeat this season came at the hands of aforementioned Memphis. After allowing a touchdown with just under 10 minutes left in the first quarter, the Middies didn’t give up another offensive touchdown until nearly six minutes into the third quarter. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-26-19 | Akron v. Northern Illinois UNDER 43.5 | 0-49 | Loss | -104 | 26 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Akron and Northern Illinois at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. Akron’s offense couldn’t have looked much worse than it did in last week’s 21-0 loss at home against Buffalo (we won with the Bulls in that game). Rather than fade the Zips again here, we’ll turn our attention to the total and back the ‘under’ as they hit the road to face Northern Illinois. One area where I do expect some improvement from the Zips offensively is on the ground. You can run on the Huskies this season and that bodes well for Akron as it looks to effectively shorten this game and churn out long drives. That of course also serves our purposes well with a play on the ‘under’. Northern Illinois lost starting QB Ross Bowers to a concussion in last week’s loss to Miami-Ohio. Regardless who is under center, the Huskies have had a tough time getting anything going offensively this season. Save for a few breakdowns from opposing defenses resulting in big plays, Northern Illinois has been kept at bay for much of the campaign. RB Tre Harbison has seen his workload increase over the last few games and has had some success, but it’s worth noting that he has reached the end zone in just two of six contests this season. He’ll likely be the focal point of the Huskies offense on Saturday but that only strengthens our position on the ‘under’ as he should be able to help NIU churn out long, time-consuming drives against a Zips defense that has at the very least been able to limit opposing passing attacks, not allowing a quarterback to throw for over 200 yards since September 21st against Troy. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-25-19 | Jazz +3 v. Lakers | 86-95 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:35 pm et on Friday. I like the way this one sets up for the Jazz as they head to Los Angeles to challenge the overrated Lakers at Staples Center. As I've been harping on all week, preseason results do matter when it comes to the NBA. Note that the Jazz ranked 3rd in offensive rating and 1st in defensive rating during the exhibition slate while also finishing up 7th in terms of pace rating. The Lakers didn't show nearly as well, ranking in the bottom half of the league in both offensive and defensive ratings. The did do a good job of pushing the pace and we saw a similar story unfold in their season-opener against the Clippers, however entering last night's action (realizing it's very early) they rated in the bottom-third of the league in offensive rating. The Jazz are top five in both offensive and defensive rating through a game. Take Utah (10*). | |||||||
10-25-19 | USC -11.5 v. Colorado | Top | 35-31 | Loss | -106 | 24 h 45 m | Show |
CFB Pac-12 Game of the Month. My selection is on USC minus the points over Colorado at 9 pm et on Friday. The USC Trojans are dealing with a number of key injuries on the defensive side of the football but that's certainly been factored into this line. I like the upside of the Trojans offense as they head to Boulder to face an awful Colorado defense. On the flip side, the Buffaloes offense has disappointed this season - the duo of QB Steven Montez and WR Laviska Shenault Jr. in particular. The Trojans 'next man up' philosophy on defense has served them well and I believe this is another matchup they can handle. Note that Colorado has scored just 13 points in its last two games. Even when the Buffaloes did put up 30 points in a losing effort against Arizona three weeks ago they still didn't manage to find the end zone until the final two minutes of the first half and failed to score a touchdown over the game's critical final 20 minutes. USC rode a big game from freshman RB Kenan Christon last week as he ran for 103 yards and two touchdowns on just eight carries. Take USC (10*). | |||||||
10-25-19 | Raptors +3 v. Celtics | 106-112 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto plus the points over Boston at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The defending champion Raptors are going to get everyone's best shot this season but so far so good, as they survived their opening night test against the Zion-less Pelicans at home. As I've been preaching throughout the first week of the regular season, preseason results do matter in the NBA. Note that the Raptors wrapped up the exhibition slate ranking in the league's top 10 in offensive rating and top 4 in defensive rating. The Celtics on the other hand were a miserable 29th in terms of offensive rating and 19th in defensive rating over the course of the preseason. Despite being involved in an overtime fight with the Pelicans, the Raptors still showed well at both ends of the floor, ranking sixth in offensive rating and fifth in defensive rating in early returns this season. This is a big test for the champs but I look for them to handle it well. Take Toronto (10*). | |||||||
10-24-19 | Redskins v. Vikings -15.5 | 9-19 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over Washington at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. It seems as if big pointspreads have become the norm in these primetime games and this Thursday’s contest is no different. Once again, I’m not sure the oddsmakers can set the line high enough as the Vikings should have little trouble brushing aside the lowly Redskins. Washington has such little upside at this point it’s almost laughable. WR Terry McLaurin has arguably been its lone bright spot and while he should get his in this matchup with a beatable Vikings pass defense, that’s no reason to jump off the Vikings in a game that has true blowout potential. We’ve already seen Redskins interim head coach Bill Callahan orchestrate an offensive gameplan centred around the rushing attack, and more specifically RB Adrian Peterson. That gameplan just isn’t likely to work against a Vikings front that has been terrific against the run this season. With the ‘Skins likely to fall behind early, they may be forced to air it out but their comeback potential is limited given the fact that Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer knows former Minnesota QB Case Keenum’s tendencies and limitations. Minnesota will be without WR Adam Thielen for this game and while that’s a major hit, I still see this as a blow up spot for the Vikes offense. QB Kirk Cousins will be given clean pockets all night long against a Redskins defense that hasn’t been able to get to opposing quarterbacks at all this season. Meanwhile, RB Dalvin Cook is in line for another monster performance against a defense that can be run on and has gone nothing to eliminate short passing plays to opposing running backs. With the Vikes likely to dominate the time-of-possession battle, it’s only a matter of time before this one gets out of hand. Take Minnesota (10*). | |||||||
10-24-19 | Hawks v. Pistons UNDER 222.5 | 117-100 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Detroit at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Pistons were involved in a high-scoring affair to open the season last night as they rode a big fourth quarter to a win in Indiana. I look for things to settle down a bit on Thursday as they play their home opener against the Hawks. Note that during the preseason the Hawks ranked 32nd in offensive rating (yes, they finished behind both Melbourne and Guangzhou). Atlanta was one of the league's highest-scoring teams a year ago, but I'm not expecting it to come roaring out of the gates here. While Detroit did allow 110 points in last night's season-opener in Indiana, I liked what I saw from the Pistons defensively when the game was on the line in the fourth quarter. Note that we haven't seen a game between these two teams on this floor come all that close to tonight's posted total going back to the start of the 2017-18 season. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-23-19 | Pistons v. Pacers -7.5 | 119-110 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Indiana minus the points over Detroit at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. As I noted in last night's analysis of two opening night totals winners, the preseason does matter when it comes to the NBA, at least to some extent. Here, I look for the Pacers to run the Pistons out of the gym. Note that the Pacers ranked top 11 in both offensive and defensive rating and also checked in fourth in terms of pace rating during the exhibition slate. The Pistons on the other hand finished bottom 10 in offensive rating, 27th in defensive rating and a miserable tie for 29th in pace rating. Tough spot for Detroit to open the campaign here. Take Indiana (10*). | |||||||
10-23-19 | Cavs v. Magic UNDER 214 | 85-94 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Orlando at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. Preseason results matter, at least when it comes to the NBA. We rode some preseason data to a 2-0 start to the season last night and I'll go back to the well with similar plays on Wednesday. The Cavs and Magic certainly weren't looking to push the tempo in the preseason, ranking 33rd (factoring in the non-NBA teams that were involved in preseason play) and 26th respectively in terms of pace rating. While the Cavs struggled at the defensive end of the floor, the Magic actually appeared in midseason form, ranking seventh in defensive rating. As far as offensive rating goes, the Magic and Cavs ranked 28th and 30th respectively. Expect a sluggish start from these two teams on Wednesday. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-22-19 | Lakers v. Clippers UNDER 226.5 | 102-112 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between the Lakers and Clippers at 10:35 pm et on Tuesday. I'm not convinced we're going to see the track meet the oddsmakers are calling for as the new-look Clippers and Lakers do battle at Staples Center on Tuesday night. Note that we don't have a lot to go on data-wise as the regular season begins but I do put some stock in preseason results when it comes to the NBA. During the exhibition slate, the Clippers and Lakers both ranked top-13 in the league in defensive rating with the Clippers checking in an impressive fourth. On the flip side, the Clips ranked 29th in terms of offensive rating during the preseason with the Lakers checking in 15th. Going a step further, neither the Clips or Lakers ranked in the top 10 in pace rating during the preseason. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-22-19 | Pelicans v. Raptors OVER 231 | 122-130 | Win | 100 | 11 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Toronto at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. We don't have a whole lot of data to go on here in the early stages of the season but in the case of the NBA, I do believe that preseason tendencies do have some carry-over effect into the regular season. In this matchup, we have two teams that both ranked in the top five in the league in pace rating during the preseason (New Orleans was 2nd and Toronto 5th). Both also finished in the bottom eight of the league in terms of defensive rating with the Pelicans checking in 28th (just two spots ahead of the New Zealand Breakers) and the Raptors 22nd. While the total has been pushed up, it could be even higher were it not for the devastating injury to Pelicans first overall draft pick Zion Williamson. Even without the big man's presence in this one, I'm still anticipating a track meet. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-21-19 | Patriots v. Jets UNDER 43.5 | Top | 33-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
NFL AFC East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between New England and New York at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I really like the way this one sets up as a relatively low-scoring affair on Monday night. The Patriots offense is certainly banged-up right now with virtually their entire wide receiving corps nursing various ailments. I expect RBs Sony Michel and James White to be the focal point of the offense on Monday night at the Meadowlands, which plays into our hands as the ground game and short passing attack helps keep the clock moving. We can count on Bill Bellichick and more specifically CB Stephon Gilmore to take away the Jets best weapon through the air, that being WR Robby Anderson. New England will likely allow the Jets to pound away with RB Le'Veon Bell, but to limited success. QB Sam Darnold returned with a big game against the Cowboys last week, but look for him to come back to earth against a familiar divisional opponent on Monday Night Football. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-20-19 | Eagles +3 v. Cowboys | Top | 10-37 | Loss | -120 | 24 h 41 m | Show |
NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Dallas at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. I absolutely love the way this spot sets up for the Eagles as they try to bounce back from last week’s tough loss in Minnesota. Philadelphia continues to perform at an elite level offensively, despite the fact that it has dealt with a number of key injuries at the wide receiver position this season. QB Carson Wentz remains one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the league and he’s set to expose an injury-ravaged Cowboys defense on Sunday night. Dallas is coming off back-to-back devastating losses, with the most recent being particular painful at the hands of the lowly Jets. With WR Amari Cooper likely to miss and RB Ezekiel Elliott busy running into piles there’s little reason to have much confidence in the Cowboys offense right now. Head coach Jason Garrett is on the hot seat again and I’m not sure that we’ll see the team rally around him this time around. While everyone was singing the praises of Cowboys first-year offensive coordinator Kellen Moore earlier this season, things have gotten stale in a hurry. Look for the Eagles pass rush to take advantage of the Cowboys injuries on the offensive line (Tyron Smith and La’El Collins are expected to miss) and make life difficult for QB Dak Prescott all night long. The case can be made that the wrong team is favored in this one. Take Philadelphia (10*). | |||||||
10-20-19 | Saints v. Bears UNDER 37 | 36-25 | Loss | -101 | 19 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between New Orleans and Chicago at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. This is the lowest total on this week’s board, but it’s warranted in my opinion. The Saints keep rolling along without QB Drew Brees but their success certainly hasn’t come on the strength of their offense. In a favorable matchup against the Jaguars last Sunday they managed only 13 points with QB Teddy Bridgewater resuming his role as game manager, throwing for 240 yards and a single touchdown while RB Latavius Murray led the backfield in rush yards with only 44. Alvin Kamara remains banged-up and there’s some doubt whether he’ll even be able to play on Sunday. Either way, I have little confidence in the Saints putting many points on the board against an elite and rested Bears defense that should be in a foul mood following a loss to the Raiders in Oakland. On the flip side, the Bears will welcome back QB Mitchell Trubisky but I’m not counting on big returns against a quality Saints defense. Chicago’s offense has little upside right now and with Saints CB Marshon Lattimore likely to erase WR Allen Robinson and RB David Montgomery still trying to carve out a true lead back role, we can anticipate another (far) less-than-explosive performance at Soldier Field. This one has slugfest written all over it. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-20-19 | Rams v. Falcons OVER 53 | Top | 37-10 | Loss | -120 | 16 h 17 m | Show |
NFL NFC Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Los Angeles and Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday. This projects as potentially one of the highest-scoring shootouts of the entire season as both offenses come in ready to fully expose the weaknesses of the opposing defenses. The Rams secondary is an absolute mess right now and don’t let their early week acquisition of CB Jalen Ramsey steer you otherwise. Ramsey hasn’t suited up since September and now comes in following a limited week of practice with his new team. His reward will be lining up against Falcons all-world WR Julio Jones who is finally in line for a big breakout performance on Sunday. While the Falcons have been awful in the win-loss column, their offense continues to churn along with QB Matt Ryan posting monster numbers. Nothing changes against the Rams truly disappointing defense this week. On the flip side, we’ve also seen the Rams offense sputter due in large part to the inefficiency of QB Jared Goff, not to mention their offensive line’s inability to pass-protect. That should change here as the Falcons defense has done nothing to pressure opposing quarterbacks. Given a clean pocket I’m confident Goff can tear apart this struggling Falcons defense. After last week’s debacle it’s unlikely the Rams will lean heavily on their ground attack here, instead electing to attack the Atlanta defense through the air. Count on big performances from Kupp, Woods, Cooks et al as this one develops into a back-and-forth shootout. I’m not sure the oddsmakers can set the total high enough. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-20-19 | Jaguars -4 v. Bengals | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 16 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Jacksonville minus the points over Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. This is a dream bounce-back matchup for the Jaguars off last week’s ugly home loss against the suddenly defensive-minded Saints. The Bengals sit at 0-6 on the season and come in off another tightly-contested loss against Baltimore last week. Off that physical affair on the road I’m not sure how much this injury-riddled squad will have left in the tank this Sunday, nor do I believe its motivation will be all that high against the Jags. No team pressures the quarterback less than the Bengals and that should open the door for a big game from Jags QB Gardner Minshew, who fell out of favor with the bandwagon crowd following last week’s brutal performance against the Saints. Even if Minshew can’t get things going through the air, RB Leonard Fournette should have no trouble exposing a truly awful Bengals run defense. Meanwhile, Jacksonville’s defense catches a favorable draw here against Cincinnati and its dreadful offensive line. Look for the Jags pass rushers to find their way into the Bengals backfield all afternoon long. WR Tyler Boyd is one of the Bengals only offensive pieces that catches any sort of favorable matchup in this one. Yes, Jacksonville dealt CB Jalen Ramsey earlier in the week but he hadn’t been on the field since September anyway. If anything, I see last week’s loss to the Saints as a rallying point for the 2-4 Jags. Take Jacksonville (10*). | |||||||
10-20-19 | Vikings v. Lions UNDER 43.5 | 42-30 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Minnesota and Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. With the Vikings coming off a high-scoring affair against the Eagles last week this is an ideal spot to jump back on the ‘under’ as they hit the road to face the Lions, who are playing on a short week following Monday night’s highly-disappointing loss in Green Bay. We’ve seen Minnesota really open up its offense in the last couple of weeks with WRs Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs taking turns going off. Here, I think we can count on a return to form from the Vikings offense as they’ll likely lean heavily on RB Dalvin Cook and even backup Alexander Mattison, who played a key role in last week’s victory. The Lions run defense has struggled at times, including on Monday night when it allowed Packers RB Jamaal Williams to run wild. I do look for Detroit to bounce back in that regard here at home, however, and feel that the Lions pass defense does match up well against the Vikes dynamic tandem of Thielen and Diggs. Detroit got off to a nice start offensively at Lambeau Field on Monday but couldn’t sustain it – a common theme with this offense over the years. Here, the Lions face the unenviable task of playing on a short week against one of the league’s best defenses. Note that Minnesota excels at pressuring opposing quarterbacks and has held opposing running backs well south of four yards per rush this season. Detroit simply has too few reliable options in its passing game to worry me all that much against a good, but not great Vikes pass defense. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-20-19 | Texans v. Colts | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 16 h 8 m | Show |
NFL AFC South Game of the Month. My selection is on Indianapolis minus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Texans upset win in Kansas City is still fresh in the minds of bettors while the Colts win on that same field the week previous has been all but forgotten, leading to a favorable line for the home side in this AFC South showdown on Sunday. The bye week came at the right time for Indianapolis as it is expected to have MLB Darius Leonard and WR T.Y. Hilton back at full speed this Sunday. Meanwhile, the Texans defense is in a really tough position with an injury-ravaged secondary, preparing to face Hilton, who has been a real thorn in their side over the years. While I have a lot of confidence in Texans QB DeShaun Watson, not to mention WR DeAndre Hopkins, I have little confidence in anyone else on the Houston offense, nor in play-caller and head coach Bill O’Brien. I simply see this as an excellent spot to fade the Texans off a huge win last week as they head on the road to face a better-coached, and still underrated Colts squad on Sunday afternoon. Take Indianapolis (10*). | |||||||
10-20-19 | Cardinals v. Giants OVER 50.5 | 27-21 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Arizona and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. We have another shootout waiting to happen in a game involving the Cardinals on Sunday afternoon. After cashing with the ‘over’ in last week’s win over the Falcons, there’s no reason to jump ship here. Arizona has the perfect make-up as an ‘over’ team in today’s NFL. The Cardinals offense can move the football in a myriad of different ways and plays up-tempo regardless the situation. Their defense is one of the weakest in the league. I’ll get back to that in a moment. Here we can expect Arizona to absolutely throttled a weak Giants defense that allows just under five yards per rush and have done nothing to slow any opposing pass game with a pulse this season. The Giants offense continues to boast plenty of upside with rookie QB Daniel Jones under center. This week Jones will get some much needed help with the return of do-it-all RB Saquon Barkley. Running backs have absolutely terrorized the Cards defense this season, both on the ground and through the air. Arizona will get CB Patrick Peterson back from suspension this week but how effective he’ll be remains to be seen. I don’t think it’s simply a matter of his return curing all that ails this defense. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-19-19 | Tulane v. Memphis UNDER 59.5 | 17-47 | Loss | -109 | 33 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Tulane and Memphis at 7 pm et on Saturday. We won with the ‘under’ in Tulane’s rout of Connecticut last Saturday and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. The Green Wave will obviously be facing a much tougher challenge this time around. Note that Tulane hasn’t really been overly tested but when it did go on the road to face Auburn it managed just six points. Memphis isn’t Auburn but will pose a difficult challenge. Last week, the Tigers didn’t bring their ‘A’ game defensively, digging themselves a 23-7 first half hole before rallying. I do give them credit for stiffening up in the second half, allowing just a single touchdown in the game’s final 30 minutes. Look for the Tigers to come out of the gate much stronger back at home. The Green Wave by no means possess an elite defense, but we have certainly seen positive signs. Going back to that matchup with Auburn, they held the Tigers out of the end zone until the second quarter and also went a stretch of 22 game minutes from the second quarter into the third quarter before allowing another touchdown. When these two teams squared off last season Tulane rolled to a 40-24 victory. I expect this one to be more tightly contested, which should lend itself to a lower-scoring affair. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-19-19 | Temple v. SMU -7.5 | 21-45 | Win | 100 | 29 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on SMU minus the points over Temple at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. This is being pegged as a real tough test for SMU as it welcomes 5-1 Temple to Gerald J. Ford Stadium on Saturday afternoon. I’m confident the Mustangs will be up to the challenge. Temple should be commended for its strong start, but it’s not as if it has been overly tested. The Owls wins have come against Bucknell, Maryland, Georgia Tech, East Carolina and Memphis. The win over Maryland certainly could have gone either way as they won by a score of 20-17 and last week the Owls did everything they could to give the game away after building a big 23-7 first half lead against a shell-shocked Memphis squad. Here, I’m confident the Owls will get the Mustangs best punch. SMU enters the game off its bye week which came on the heels of a wild 43-37 triple-overtime win over Tulsa. It certainly got caught flat-footed in that one – its first game as a top-25 ranked team since 1986 – falling behind big before rallying with three unanswered fourth quarter touchdowns to force overtime. Temple should garner its full attention here. The Mustangs have put up 40+ points in all but one of their six games so far this season and should approach that number again. I’m not convinced the Owls will be able to keep up. Take SMU (10*). | |||||||
10-19-19 | Buffalo -17 v. Akron | Top | 21-0 | Win | 100 | 29 h 57 m | Show |
CFB Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over Akron at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. This one has blowout written all over it as a hungry Buffalo squad travels to face winless Akron. The Bulls have faced a tough early season schedule so it’s not surprising that they enter this contest with just two wins to their credit. Things do get easier from here, starting with what should be a layup against the Zips. Look for the Buffalo ground game to really get rolling in this one. Note that last week Akron got torched for 208 rushing yards on 39 attempts by Kent State running back Will Matthews and quarterback Dustin Crum. Buffalo’s tandem of Kevin Marks and Jaret Patterson have the potential to improve on those numbers here. Buffalo has shown it has blowout potential having already defeated FCS squad Robert Morris (who I wouldn’t rank far below Akron) 35-10 and Temple 38-22. The Bulls took this matchup by a 24-6 score last season. Take Buffalo (10*). | |||||||
10-19-19 | TCU v. Kansas State UNDER 44.5 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 41 h 26 m | Show |
CFB Big 12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between TCU and Kansas State at 2:30 pm et on Saturday. Things really got away from TCU in its most recent game as it dropped an ugly 49-24 decision on the road against Iowa State. I look for the Horned Frogs to do a much better job of controlling proceedings against Kansas State on Saturday and that lends itself to a much lower-scoring affair. Keep in mind, that game against Iowa State essentially turned on a Cyclones defensive fumble return for a touchdown three minutes into the second quarter. Offensively, TCU has shown flashes of brilliance but those flashes have been few and far between. QB Max Duggan has been inconsistent at best, passing for over 200 yards only once, that coming in comeback mode against Iowa State. There's no question, the Horned Frogs will face a tough challenge in the form of Kansas State's defense on Saturday. After dropping back-to-back conference tilts against Oklahoma State and Baylor, in blowout fashion no less, this is obviously a huge game for the Wildcats. Like TCU, Kansas State's offense has been less than impressive. At home against Baylor, Kansas State didn't find the end zone until there were less than seven minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. The good news is, in that same contest, the 'Cats held Baylor out of the end zone until the final seven minutes of the first half. This was a defensive struggle last year with TCU prevailing 14-13. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-19-19 | Toledo v. Ball State OVER 57 | Top | 14-52 | Win | 100 | 41 h 5 m | Show |
CFB MAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Toledo and Ball State at 2 pm et on Saturday. This matchup was no contest a year ago as Toledo rolled to a 45-13 win. As the line would indicate, this should be a far more competitive affair, and I believe that lends itself to a high-scoring game. Ball State has reeled off back-to-back wins after starting its campaign with a 1-3 record. The Cardinals have already been involved in some shootouts. They can beat you through the air and on the ground with little talked about RB Caleb Huntley absolutely going off over the last two games, rushing for 309 yards on 64 carries. The touchdowns haven't come just yet (he has just five through six games this season) but it's only a matter of time. QB Drew Plitt has been bombing away, attempting at least 32 passes in five of six games to date. He has already tossed 13 touchdowns. The Cardinals will need all of that offense and then some against a Toledo squad that will be in a sour mood after scoring just seven points in a loss at Bowling Green last week. Keep in mind, the Rockets entered that game sporting a 4-1 record, having scored 145 points over the course of a four-game winning streak. Rockets RB Bryant Koback has already ran for at least 177 yards on two different occasions this season and should have a field day against the Ball State defense on Saturday. Toledo admittedly has questions at QB after Mitchell Guadagni suffered an injury last week but it's not as if he's been setting the MAC on fire. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-18-19 | Pittsburgh v. Syracuse UNDER 52.5 | Top | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 22 h 27 m | Show |
CFB ACC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Syracuse at 7 pm et on Friday. Most are expecting a shootout in this Friday night ACC tilt but I'm looking for a different story to unfold at the Carrier Dome. Pittsburgh is coming off a wild, high-scoring 33-30 win at Duke last time out. Keep in mind, the Panthers built a huge 26-3 lead in that contest and actually didn't give up a touchdown until the final three minutes of the third quarter. They sagged late and let the Blue Devils stage a furious rally, even giving up the lead in the fourth quarter before securing the win with a late touchdown. That should only amp up their concentration on the defensive side of the football in this one, and I see this as a manageable matchup against an inconsistent Syracuse offense. Note that earlier this season, Pitt didn't give up a touchdown against a powerful UCF offense until the final five minutes of the first half. Syracuse is coming off a tough 16-10 loss at N.C. State last week. The Orange are off to a frustrating 3-3 start. QB Tommy DeVito has looked terrific at times but has been far too inconsistent. 11 of his 12 touchdown passes have come in three games and he has also thrown five interceptions. Syracuse's ground attack has been equally inconsistent. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-17-19 | Chiefs v. Broncos OVER 48.5 | Top | 30-6 | Loss | -105 | 32 h 20 m | Show |
NFL AFC West Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Kansas City and Denver at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. When these two teams met on this field last October we saw the total settle out around 54 points. That game failed to eclipse that number but here I look for a different story to unfold, at a more favorable number for ‘over’ bettors. The Chiefs defense is a mess. They’re allowing well north of five yards per rush this season, which sets up especially well for the Broncos two-headed backfield attack featuring Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman. The Broncos won’t shy away from pounding the football in an effort to chew up the clock and effectively shorten this game, but I’m confident they’ll break off enough big runs to finish drives with touchdowns on the board. Given the Chiefs highly disappointing and virtually non-existent pass rush, oft-criticized Denver QB Joe Flacco should be able to find some success through the air in this one as well. Kansas City obviously possesses an elite offense, even if it isn’t going to match the numbers it put up during an incredible 2018 campaign. This is an admittedly tough matchup against a quality Broncos defense but off back-to-back losses, you can be sure the Chiefs offense will come out swinging and WR Tyreek Hill certainly looked no worse for wear in his first game back from injury last Sunday. Bettors are very hesitant to play the ‘over’ in this one due to the Broncos knack for getting involved in low-scoring games but that only serves to give us value with the total being set lower than it should be in my opinion. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-17-19 | UL-Lafayette -6 v. Arkansas State | 37-20 | Win | 100 | 22 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on Louisiana-Lafayette minus the points over Arkansas State at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. The Ragin' Cajuns are coming off a tough 17-7 loss at home against Appalachian State in a rematch of last year's Sun Belt championship game. They're installed as a road favorite here in what looks like a tough matchup with Arkansas State, on paper at least. In a game that has true shootout potential, I have more confidence in the Louisiana-Lafayette defense to get a couple of key stops when it needs it on Thursday night. I also like the fact that the Ragin' Cajuns boast one of the best rushing attacks in the nation. They have the tandem of backs in Elijah Mitchell and Trey Ragas to effectively shorten this game and put it away for good should they be able to build a lead. Arkansas State has absolutely exploded offensively over its last few games with QB Layne Hatcher tossing eight touchdown passes in his last two contests. Don't count on a repeat performance against a capable Cajuns defense here. Take Louisiana-Lafayette (10*). | |||||||
10-14-19 | Lions +4 v. Packers | Top | 22-23 | Win | 100 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
NFC North Game of the Month. My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Green Bay at 8:15 pm et on Monday. Simply put, I'm not sure the Packers are as good as their 4-1 record, or last week's high-scoring win over the Cowboys would seem to indicate. They'll be without WR DaVante Adams again on Monday night and with their defense sagging, I'm not sure they'll be able to get past the Lions without a serious fight. Detroit was written off by most before the season even began, and certainly following an ugly season-opening tie in Arizona. Since then, Detroit has been somewhat inconsistent, but has managed to battle its way to a 2-1-1 mark and can gain ground on the division rival Packers with a win here. I like the way the Lions underrated offense matches up against the Packers suddenly struggling defense and on the flip side, I also think the Detroit defense can give QB Aaron Rodgers some serious heartburn here. RB Aaron Jones went off against the Cowboys last Sunday but don't count on a repeat performance here as Matt LaFleur seems determined to give RB Jamaal Williams his share of touches as well, even if it may be to the detriment of the offense. The Lions have two wins to their credit at Lambeau Field since 2015 so there's no real intimidation factor at play here. Take Detroit (10*). | |||||||
10-13-19 | Steelers v. Chargers UNDER 41.5 | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 23 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Los Angeles at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. Pittsburgh is in dire straits on offense right now with both Ben Roethlisberger and Mason Rudolph sidelined. Don't discount the loss of change-of-pace RB Jaylen Samuels either. Simply put, the Steelers offense has been a plodding unit at the best of times this season and now heads to the west coast with that is sure to be a conservative, run-based offensive gameplan. Los Angeles hasn't been great against the run but can focus its defensive focus on slowing RB James Conner and a one-dimensional offense here. The Chargers are somewhat committed to working RB Melvin Gordon back into the fold but there's no question, he didn't look great in last week's season debut. With key injuries on their offensive line the Chargers are limited in what they can do offensively right now. This isn't an ideal matchup against an underrated Steelers defense that can generate consistent pressure on opposing quarterbacks and while RB Austin Ekeler and WR Keenan Allen can inflict some damage, I still believe this total will prove to be too high. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-13-19 | Falcons v. Cardinals OVER 51.5 | 33-34 | Win | 100 | 26 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Arizona at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. This game has true shootout potential as the Falcons travel to Glendale to take on the Cardinals. Atlanta was involved in a shootout last week in Houston, ultimately falling well short in a blowout loss. The Falcons offense continues to roll along with Matt Ryan airing it out more than any other quarterback in the NFL. Nothing changes this week as Ryan faces a less-than-imposing Cardinals pass defense that continues to play without corners Peterson and Alford. Not only that but Arizona isn't generating any pressure on opposing quarterbacks which means Ryan should have plenty of time to find his terrific wide receiving corps for big gains. On the flip side, this is a potential blow-up spot for Cards rookie QB Kyler Murray. Like the Cards, the Falcons aren't putting any pressure on opposing quarterbacks and Murray should have little trouble beating them both through the air and on the ground. There are questions whether RB David Johnson will be able to play through a bad back but even if he can't go, backup RB Chase Edmonds showed last week he's more than up for the challenge. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-13-19 | Bengals v. Ravens OVER 47.5 | Top | 17-23 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 30 m | Show |
NFL NFC North Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Baltimore at 1 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams were involved in tightly-contested affairs last Sunday and while both games went 'over' the total, neither contest was a shootout. Here, I believe the potential is there for a shootout as the Bengals try to stay competitive, and should have a good shot at doing so against an injury-plagued, and struggling Ravens defense. On the flip side, this is a tremendous opportunity for the Baltimore offense to run wild against an awful Bengals defense. Teams have absolutely steamrolled Cincinnati on the ground this season and few teams are set up better to do exactly that than the Ravens. QB Lamar Jackson is coming off a good but not great performance in an overtime win over the rival Steelers last Sunday. Look for him to find the going a lot easier in this one. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-12-19 | Florida v. LSU -13 | 28-42 | Win | 100 | 34 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on LSU minus the points over Florida at 8 pm et on Saturday. This is the marquee matchup on Saturday’s board as the 6-0 Gators challenge the 5-0 Tigers in the Bayou. While Florida is coming off a hard-fought emotional home win over rival Auburn last Saturday, LSU enjoyed nothing more than a tune-up in a 42-6 rout of Utah State. I’m still not sure we’ve seen the best the Tigers have to offer, which is saying something considering they’ve scored 60+ points on two separate occasions already this season. This is the game where I look for the LSU defense to step to the forefront and serve as the key to victory. Gators standouts Lamical Perine and Freddie Swain absolutely exploded against Auburn last Saturday but I’m confident the Tigers will do a better job of keeping that duo in check in this one. Florida QB Kyle Trask has managed the last couple of games nicely but won’t be able to match LSU QB Joe Burrow in this one. While we can’t expect Burrow to keep up his ridiculous pace, I do look for him to consistently put the Tigers in good position to score on Saturday night, ultimately helping them pull away for another convincing win. Take LSU (10*). | |||||||
10-12-19 | Army v. Western Kentucky UNDER 43.5 | 8-17 | Win | 100 | 33 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Army and Western Kentucky at 7 pm et on Saturday. We’re dealing with a relatively low posted total in this one but the number is warranted in my opinion. Army is coming off back-to-back uncharacteristic high-scoring games, splitting those contests against Morgan State and Tulane. This one sets up as a slugfest, however, noting that Western Kentucky has seen three of its five games this season total 34 points or less. The Hilltoppers have managed to score more than 21 points only once, and that came back in Week 1 against FCS squad Central Arkansas. While last week’s game got away from them, the Black Knights have proven they can play hard-nosed defensive football, allowing a grand total of just 65 points through their first four contests this season. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-12-19 | Texas Tech v. Baylor -10.5 | Top | 30-33 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 13 m | Show |
CFB Big 12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Baylor minus the points over Texas Tech at 4 pm et on Saturday. Baylor is one of the nation’s more surprising undefeated teams as we head into mid-October. The Bears are coming off back-to-back impressive wins over Iowa State and Kansas State and now have the opportunity to really get rolling before heading on the road for a showdown with Oklahoma State next week. Texas Tech is in a clear letdown spot here as it tries to follow up a surprising 45-35 win over Oklahoma State last Saturday. The Red Raiders jumped all over a Cowboys squad that was arguably ‘fat and happy’ off a big win over Kansas State the week previous. Keep in mind, Texas Tech is still playing without starting QB Alan Bowman. Jett Duffey has filled in admirably, not only this season but last year as well, but faces a tall task against a quality Baylor defense here. Just two weeks ago, Duffey was held to 11-of-20 passing for 120 yards and ran the ball seven times for just 16 yards against Oklahoma. Take Baylor (10*). | |||||||
10-12-19 | Connecticut v. Tulane UNDER 58.5 | Top | 7-49 | Win | 100 | 30 h 59 m | Show |
CFB Total of the Week. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Connecticut and Tulane at 3:45 pm et on Saturday. Connecticut was in a terrific spot to earn its second win of the season last week as it hosted an injury-plagued South Florida squad at home. Not only did the Huskies fail to win that game, they got blown out by a 48-22 score. Their lone victory this season came against FCS squad Wagner at home back in Week 1. Things won’t get any easier as they travel to face upstart Tulane here, noting that UConn has topped out at 24 points – that performance coming against aforementioned Wagner. Tulane was involved in a surprising shootout against Army at West Point last Saturday, prevailing by a 42-33 score. That was actually the Green Wave’s second consecutive shootout win after defeating Houston 38-31 two weeks previous. I don’t think Tulane will be interested in getting involved in another high-scoring affair here. Remember, earlier this season we saw the Green Wave give up just 44 points over a three-game stretch that included a road date with Auburn (they gave up 24 points in that loss). This is a ‘win and move on’ type of situation for the Green Wave and that sets up well for us with an ‘under’ ticket in hand. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-12-19 | Alabama -17 v. Texas A&M | 47-28 | Win | 100 | 30 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Alabama minus the points over Texas A&M at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We got backdoored by Texas A&M earlier this season as it scored a last-second touchdown to close the gap to 14 points at Clemson. I won’t hesitate to go back to the well fading the Aggies here, however, as they face another steep challenge against Alabama. We actually cashed an ‘under’ ticket the last time A&M took the field, two weeks ago against Arkansas in Dallas. The Aggies had a tough time putting away a middle-of-the-road Arkansas squad on that day, ultimately prevailing by a 31-27 score. QB Kellen Mond has now thrown four interceptions and has fumbled the football three times through five games this season. If he can’t take care of the football against the Crimson Tide it will be lights out in a hurry for the Aggies. There’s not a lot to say about Alabama. The Tide continue to roll but after giving up a grand total of 43 points in their first four games they allowed 31 against Ole Miss last Saturday. That should help keep their motivation level high as they head to College Station, noting that ‘Bama took this matchup by 22 points last season. Take Alabama (10*). | |||||||
10-12-19 | Memphis -5 v. Temple | Top | 28-30 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 19 m | Show |
CFB AAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Memphis minus the points over Temple at 12 noon et on Saturday. I really like the way this spot sets up for a Memphis team that remains under the radar despite its perfect 5-0 record. The Tigers are coming off a 52-point explosion on the road against Louisiana-Monroe last week. RB Kenneth Gainwell is seemingly getting better with each passing game, racking up well north of 350 rush yards and four touchdowns over his last three contests. The Tigers defense didn’t perform particularly well in last week’s win, but did earn the game-sealing interception return for a touchdown in the fourth quarter. We have seen this unit step up when it has needed to – remember Memphis defeated Ole Miss by a 15-10 score back in Week 1. We suffered a tough backdoor defeat with Temple last week as it won in unimpressive fashion at East Carolina. The Owls are off to a solid 4-1 start this season but only their victory over then-21st ranked Maryland back on September 14th was all that impressive. Their offense seems to be regressing each week and that’s certainly not encouraging as they could very well need to keep up in a shootout here on Saturday. Take Memphis (10*). | |||||||
10-12-19 | South Carolina v. Georgia -22.5 | 20-17 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Georgia minus the points over South Carolina at 12 noon et on Saturday. Georgia doesn’t seem to garner the same respect level as Alabama and Oklahoma but it should. The Bulldogs are off to a perfect 5-0 start, allowing a grand total of just 54 points in the process. The final score read 43-14 but last week’s win in Tennessee wasn’t a true blowout. Here, I look for Georgia to be even sharper. South Carolina has won twice in five games so far this season, including a 24-7 rout of Kentucky last week. That could leave the Gamecocks a little ‘fat and happy’ entering this not likely winnable contest on Saturday. Note that South Carolina has topped the 24-point mark only once this season and that came against FCS squad Charleston Southern. In the Gamecocks two road games to date they gave up 58 points against North Carolina and Missouri. Georgia rolled to a 24-point victory in this matchup last year but I don’t expect it to overlook South Carolina in this spot. Take Georgia (10*). | |||||||
10-11-19 | Virginia v. Miami-FL UNDER 43.5 | 9-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Virginia and Miami at 8 pm et on Friday. The Hurricanes are coming off a high-scoring affair last week against Virginia Tech while Virginia is coming off a much-needed bye week following an ugly performance on the road against Notre Dame. I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair here. The Canes ultimately put up 35 points and now starting QB N'Kosi Perry threw for over 400 yards and four touchdowns last week against the Hokies but that had everything to do with the fact they were playing out of a 28-0 hole in the second quarter. Miami isn't built to win shootouts and won't be interested in another track meet here. The same goes for Virginia. The Cavaliers are off to a 4-1 start this season but have played a rather uneven brand of football on both offense and defense. With no semblance of a ground game, I'm not sure they're going to be able to generate a lot of offense against a good Miami defense in bounce-back mode here. Defensively, I do think the Cavaliers can limit the Canes offense that isn't as good as it showed on the scoresheet last week. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-10-19 | UL-Monroe -2.5 v. Texas State | 24-14 | Win | 100 | 83 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Louisiana-Monroe minus the points over Texas State at 9:15 pm et on Thursday. At the onset of the season I had Texas State rated as one of the worst teams in the entire nation and despite the Bobcats 2-3 record, I still believe that is the case. Louisiana-Monroe checks in with an identical 2-3 mark but it has certainly faced a difficult draw with its three losses coming against Florida State and Iowa State on the road and undefeated Memphis at home. Even though the Warhawks lost by 19 at home against the Tigers last time out, that was a competitive game until the fourth quarter. Texas State has one impressive victory to its credit, or somewhat impressive at least. The Bobcats took down Georgia State by a 37-34 score at home back on September 21st. Keep in mind, they needed three overtimes to get it done and it's worth noting they didn't reach the end zone on offense until the final four minutes of the first half and then not again until overtime. The Warhawks took this matchup a year ago and I expect a similar story to unfold here. Take Louisiana-Monroe (10*). | |||||||
10-10-19 | Giants v. Patriots -16.5 | Top | 14-35 | Win | 100 | 35 h 42 m | Show |
NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month. My selection is on New England minus the points over New York at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Patriots as a massive road favorite last Sunday in Washington and there’s little reason to jump ship as they return home on a short week to host the injury-riddled Giants on Thursday night. New York is expected to be without arguably its two best offensive players in this one as RB Saquon Barkley and TE Evan Engram are sidelined with injuries. That leaves rookie QB Daniel Jones in a really tough position going up against a fierce Patriots defense that should have little trouble exposing the Giants offensive line. Even when Jones does have time in the pocket he’ll have few options to work with down field. Maybe WR Golden Tate goes off in his second game back but I highly doubt it. It’s also worth mentioning that WR Sterling Shepard will miss this game after suffering an ugly concussion last week. Offensively, the Pats should be able to do whatever they want against one of the weakest defenses in the league. New York has had an extremely difficult time slowing down any opposing offense other than the lowly Redskins this season and continues to deal with a number of key injuries. The Patriots really didn’t get rolling until the second half against the Redskins last Sunday but still managed to put 30+ points on the board. Expect a sharper performance from Tom Brady and co. here as they roll past the G-Men in Foxborough. Take New England (10*). | |||||||
10-10-19 | Giants v. Patriots OVER 40.5 | 14-35 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and New England at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. With word coming out that the Giants will be missing Saquon Barkley, Evan Engram and Sterling Shepard (among others) we've seen a considerable drop in this total (not to mention an ugly weather forecast). I feel it's gone too low. Simply put, I don't expect the Giants to possess the football long enough to churn out long, clock-eating drives in this game. Maybe we'll see the Patriots take their foot off the gas at some point, but even if they do, they'll likely have already contributed enough points to help this one 'over' the number. We're not asking much out of the Giants offense here and I don't believe they'll get completely shut out. Take the over (9*). | |||||||
10-08-19 | Jets v. Penguins -150 | 4-1 | Loss | -150 | 7 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh over Winnipeg at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. It has seemingly been all doom and gloom in Pittsburgh this week with word coming out that both Evgeni Malkin and Nick Bjugstad would miss significant time due to injuries. In the past, it has always seemed that the team has had no trouble picking up the slack in Geno's absence (or Sidney Crosby's for that matter). I expect the same story to unfold here. Pittsburgh is home for a third straight game to open the season and will stay home for one more game against Anaheim on Thursday. I like the spot for the Pens to skate past a Jets squad that is still trying to figure things out and decimated on the blue line right now. Winnipeg has won just once in its first three games and that came thanks to a furious third period rally and eventual shootout win in New Jersey last Friday. Take Pittsburgh (10*). | |||||||
10-07-19 | Browns v. 49ers UNDER 48 | Top | 3-31 | Win | 100 | 23 h 25 m | Show |
NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and San Francisco at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I absolutely love the way this play sets up on Monday night in Santa Clara. The Browns are coming off an offensive explosion on the road against the division rival Ravens last week but don't count on a repeat performance here. Cleveland came up with the perfect gameplan for that matchup, focusing on quick passes and run plays to beat up on an undermanned and struggling Ravens defense. Now the Browns stay on the road and travel across the country for a matchup with the upstart (and undefeated) 49ers, who have gotten some tremendous defensive play in the early going this season. While the Browns defense is in for some regression here, I do think their defense can hold up well against everyone not named George Kittle on Monday night. Kittle will get his, but look for the Browns 'D' to do a nice job of containing the Niners offense as a whole. Cleveland is getting a little healthier on the defensive side of the football and it matches up well with the middle-of-the-road San Francisco offense. This total has everything to do with the Browns high-scoring result last week and the early season thinking that the Niners would be involved in plenty of shootouts this season. Neither angle is really in touch with reality at this point. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-06-19 | Jaguars v. Panthers OVER 40 | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 28 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Jacksonville and Carolina at 1 pm et on Sunday. We missed the mark with the 'over' in the Panthers win in Houston last Sunday but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. The door is open for another big game from Jaguars RB Leonard Fournette with the Panthers now missing DT Kawann Short. Note that even with Short in action, Carolina hasn't fared well against opposing run games, allowing just shy of 4.8 yards per rush. The Panthers are in a strong bounce-back spot offensively after getting held down by the Texans last Sunday. With Jaguars stud CB Jalen Ramsey ruled out once again, look for Panthers QB Kyle Allen to take full advantage. Even the bumbling Broncos offense was able to get rolling against this defense last week in Denver, and this certainly isn't an ideal spot for the Jags playing on the road for a second straight week. Nothing really needs to be said about the Panthers ground game as RB Christian McCaffrey can move the chains regardless the situation. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-06-19 | Falcons v. Texans OVER 50 | 32-53 | Win | 100 | 27 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. This game has true shootout potential, even after both of these offenses struggled mightily in last week's contests. With the Texans allowing north of 4.5 yards per carry on the ground, things should open up for Falcons QB Matt Ryan through the air in this one. Houston has one of the weakest secondaries in the entire NFL but held up fine last week thanks to Panthers QB Kyle Allen not testing it with deep passes. We should see a much different story unfold here with Ryan and WR Julio Jones in line for a big game. Atlanta's defense ranks second-to-last in the league in sacks this season and could be in for a long afternoon if it can't generate any pressure on Texans QB Deshaun Watson. WR DeAndre Hopkins has faced a murderer's row of cornerbacks in recent weeks but catches a break here against the Falcons struggling secondary. I've been calling for breakout games from WR Will Fuller for weeks now but it has yet to happen. This could certainly be the spot. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-06-19 | Patriots -15 v. Redskins | 33-7 | Win | 100 | 27 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on New England minus the points over Washington at 1 pm et on Sunday. The oddsmakers really can't set this line high enough as the Patriots should have little trouble disposing of the Redskins in Washington on Sunday. This could be the end of the line for 'Skins head coach Jay Gruden. The team is in further turmoil this week after word got out that Gruden didn't want the team to draft QB Dwayne Haskins. Colt McCoy will get the start under center this week but your guess is as good as mine as to whether he'll finish the game. The Patriots defense has arguably been the best in football this season and should absolutely feast on a miserable Redskins offensive line. Washington's only real bright spot this season has been WR Terry McLaurin but he's dealing with a hamstring injury and questionable to play after missing last week's game. Even if he can go, he'll face the daunting challenge of Pats CB Stephon Gilmore's coverage here. I'm not even sure we'll need a lot from the New England offense but this is a really nice bounce-back spot off of last week's hard-fought, low-scoring win in Buffalo. Take New England (10*). | |||||||
10-05-19 | Michigan State +21 v. Ohio State | 10-34 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Michigan State plus the points over Ohio State at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. We won with Ohio State in its absolute annihilation of Nebraska last Saturday night but I'm expecting a much tighter affair this week as the Buckeyes welcome Michigan State to The Horseshoe. We also cashed in this matchup a year ago, winning a ticket on the 'under'. I do think we'll see points come at a premium again this year (last year's tilt reached only 32 total points). With that in mind, we're being given an awful lot of points with a quality Spartans squad. All most bettors can remember is Michigan State's ugly low-scoring home loss to Arizona State earlier this season. Outside of that game, the Spartans offense has performed well, however, and combine that with a terrific defense and I think Michigan State can stick around and make things interesting here. With a pointspread this generous and considering the tendency the Buckeyes have shown to ease off the gas in the later stages of football games (due entirely to building insurmountable leads), Spartans tickets should be in play right down to the final whistle. Take Michigan State (10*). | |||||||
10-05-19 | Western Michigan v. Toledo OVER 72 | 24-31 | Loss | -108 | 25 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Western Michigan and Toledo at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. This one is being pegged as a shootout and I expect it to play out as exactly that on Saturday afternoon at the Glass Bowl. Last year this matchup produced 75 points in a game that wasn't competitive as Toledo rolled to a 51-24 victory. I do feel the Broncos are much better-suited to surviving a shootout this time around, keeping in mind we cashed a ticket on the 'over' in Western Michigan's wild 52-33 loss at Syracuse just two weeks ago. Things predictably settled down in the Broncos 31-15 win over Western Michigan last week but I'm confident the offense will ramp back up again here. Toledo is coming off a hard-fought 28-21 home win over BYU last week - the Rockets really couldn't have performed any better defensively in that one. Just two weeks ago they allowed 35 points in a narrow win at Colorado State. This is a team that can light it up through the air and on the ground and one that should have little trouble ripping through a weak Western Michigan defense. The concern for the Rockets has to be that they'll be in for a letdown here, particularly on the defensive side of the football, and the Broncos will certainly be ready to take advantage of that. This is a high total, but it's high for a reason. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-05-19 | Tulane v. Army +3 | 42-33 | Loss | -120 | 22 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Army plus the points over Tulane at 12 noon et on Saturday. In a game where points should come at a premium, I'll gladly grab the points with what I believe is the better team, at home no less, on Saturday afternoon. Tulane is coming off an emotional 38-31 win over Houston on national tv, but that came more than two weeks ago. The Green Wave were certainly up for that spotlight game at home but I'm not convinced we're going to see the same type of emotionally-fueled performance here. Army stumbled out of the gates this season, narrowly escaping with a 14-7 win over Rice back in Week 1. The Black Knights have gotten stronger with each passing week, however, including a near stunning upset win on the road against Michigan and back-to-back blowout victories over UTSA and Morgan State. Like Tulane, Army is also coming off its bye week. In what should be a competitive contest, I like the Knights to come away victorious. Take Army (10*). | |||||||
10-04-19 | New Mexico +6.5 v. San Jose State | 21-32 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Mexico plus the points over San Jose State at 10 pm et on Friday. This isn't a pretty matchup by any means as New Mexico travels to face San Jose State with both teams sporting identical 2-2 records. All that most remember about the Lobos is that they got throttled 66-14 at Notre Dame two weeks ago. But let's keep things in perspective. New Mexico actually didn't allow an offensive touchdown until over three minutes into the second quarter in that game. They suffered some big defensive breakdowns allowing big play touchdowns in that contest, but won't face anything close to the same type of challenge against the Spartans here. San Jose State is coming off a 41-24 loss to Air Force last week. After scoring a touchdown in the first five minutes of the game, the Spartans didn't reach the end zone again until there were less than four minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. In their first home game this season - a 34-16 loss against Tulsa - the Spartans didn't reach the end zone until over halfway through the second quarter and then not again until there were less than three minutes left in the fourth quarter. Look for New Mexico to do a good job of shortening this game by churning out long drives, which obviously works in our favor with a play on the underdog. Take New Mexico (10*). | |||||||
10-03-19 | Rams v. Seahawks UNDER 49.5 | 29-30 | Loss | -109 | 34 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Seattle at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. The Rams are coming off a ridiculously high-scoring game in a stunning home loss to the Bucs last Sunday afternoon but I'm not about to write off this defense. Facing a familiar division opponent should be just what the doctor ordered in this 'get right' matchup for the defense. This is by no means an easy challenge as the Seahawks offense has been rolling along but I do think the Rams will be up for it. On the flip side, the Seattle defense is coming off a stellar performance in Arizona last Sunday and will no question feed off the energy of the home crowd here, especially considering the last time they played on this field things did not go well against the Saints. We saw two high-scoring games between these two teams last season but that hasn't been the norm in this series. I'm not sure either squad is interested in a shootout traveling on a short week with a lot on the line in-division. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-03-19 | Temple -10.5 v. East Carolina | 27-17 | Loss | -105 | 35 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Temple minus the points over East Carolina at 8 pm et on Thursday. Temple has absolutely owned this series, reeling off five straight double-digit victories in five meetings since 2014. The Owls are off to a 3-1 start this season but haven't looked all that impressive in getting there. Here, on the national stage on Thursday night, I look for them to get loose against an East Carolina squad that isn't as good as it 3-2 record would seem to indicate. We were on the 'over' in East Carolina's narrow 24-21 win over Old Dominion last Saturday. That was by no means an impressive victory as neither team was able to get anything going in a truly ugly affair. Save for a 48-point outburst against FCS squad Gardner-Webb, the Pirates offense has been non-existent this season. The game script should set up well for the Owls to ultimately put this game away with a dynamic offense that has yet to really get rolling this season. Veteran QB Adam Russo got bogged down against Georgia Tech last week but has still thrown 10 touchdowns through four games this season. Meanwhile, RB Re'Mahn Davis is coming off a breakout 135-yards, two-touchdown performance against the Yellow Jackets and should run wild on an ECU defense that got torched for 315 yards on the ground against Navy earlier this season. Take Temple (10*). | |||||||
10-03-19 | Georgia Southern v. South Alabama OVER 45.5 | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -112 | 34 h 46 m | Show |
CFB Sun Belt Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Georgia Southern and South Alabama at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. We're looking at a low total here largely due to the fact that these two teams have just two wins between them and both have been wildly inconsistent, and downright awful at times, on the offensive side of the football. I do have confidence in the quarterback play on both sides, however, and think this total should be set in the 50's - noting that last year's meeting produced north of 60 points in a Georgia Southern blowout. I do anticipate a more competitive affair here. South Alabama has the pieces in place on offense for a breakout with QB Cephus Johnson making strides and showing his ability to move the football on the ground and RB Tra Minter one of the most overlooked and underrated running backs in the country who is also capable of contributing big plays in the return game. Georgia Southern should have little trouble moving the football with QB Shai Werts leading the charge. The Jaguars possess one of the weaker defenses in the nation and didn't have a hope of slowing the Eagles offense last season. I don't see much changing here for the Jags on the defensive side of the football. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-02-19 | Senators v. Maple Leafs -1.5 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto -1.5 goals over Ottawa at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. This is just an awful spot for a Senators squad that is quite likely to challenge for the worst record in the Eastern Conference and potentially the entire NHL this season. The Leafs, Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews, in particular can't wait to get this season started and put a somewhat tumultuous offseason behind them. Expectations are high in Toronto once again as this team has the pieces in place to challenge for the Stanley Cup - it's as simple as that. Here on opening night, look for a statement win for the Leafs against the rival Sens. Take Toronto -1.5 goals (10*). | |||||||
09-30-19 | Bengals v. Steelers -3 | 3-27 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over Cincinnati at 8:15 pm et on Monday. After cashing with Pittsburgh in an ATS but not SU victory in San Francisco last Sunday, I like the Steelers to cover the number again, albeit as a favorite this time around. This is an excellent matchup for the Steelers defense to absolutely tee off on a Bengals offensive line that has struggled to open up running lanes for Joe Mixon while also allowing opponents to get a ton of pressure on QB Andy Dalton. Should the Steelers build a lead they'll be able to pin their ears back and force a key turnover or two as this game progresses. On the flip side, the Steelers offense will likely go back to basics here and let RB James Conner go to work against a Bengals defense that has surrendered a whopping 5.2 yards per rush this season. Last week's matchup wasn't good for Steelers QB Mason Rudolph but he should bounce back against a much more favorable draw here. Cincinnati has not done a good job of generating pressure on opposing quarterbacks, recording just five sacks so far this season. Take Pittsburgh (10*). | |||||||
09-29-19 | Bucs v. Rams -9 | Top | 55-40 | Loss | -102 | 26 h 39 m | Show |
NFL NFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Tampa Bay at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. This game has blowout written all over it as the Rams return home following a business-like 20-13 win in Cleveland last Sunday night. Los Angeles used a supreme defensive effort to hold off a hungry Browns squad in that one but here should be able to get loose offensively, particularly through the air against a struggle Bucs pass defense. On the flip side, I don’t see the Bucs accomplishing much in this one with the Rams outstanding secondary likely to take care of business against the dynamic duo of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Tampa Bay’s ground game is a virtual non-factor and playing from behind on Sunday isn’t likely to change that. Look for another dominant performance from the Rams as they remain undefeated with another convincing win. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
09-29-19 | Bucs v. Rams UNDER 50 | 55-40 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Tampa Bay and Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. This total checks in much higher than I expected, largely due to the shootout with the Giants the Bucs were involved in last Sunday afternoon. Here, I look for Tampa Bay to have a tough time getting anything going offensively against an elite Rams defense. Head coach Bruce Arians would be wise to dial back QB Jameis Winston here in an effort to at least sustain some drives and avoid costly turnovers. While Los Angeles has the potential to explode offensively in this one, it doesn’t have a track record of embarrassing the opposition. Tampa Bay has actually done a nice job of holding enemy running backs in check this season and the Rams aren’t likely to completely abandon their ground game in this one, opening the door for some long, clock-churning drives. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-29-19 | Redskins v. Giants OVER 48.5 | Top | 3-24 | Loss | -108 | 23 h 33 m | Show |
NFL NFC East Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Washington and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the ‘over’ in the Redskins ugly, turnover-fueled blowout loss to the Bears on Monday night and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Washington will certainly be taking a step down in class against the Giants defense, which has been repeatedly abused by opposing offenses this season. There’s no help coming for the G-Men in that department, in fact things could get even worse due to injuries at the linebacker position. Meanwhile, the New York offense got a major boost from rookie QB Daniel Jones last Sunday in Tampa and he’s primed for another big performance here. We saw New York TE Evan Engram absolutely explode against the Bucs last week and we can count on more of the same against the Redskins weak pass defense here. Even with the absence of all-world RB Saquon Barkley, look for the Giants offensive resurgence to continue for another week. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-29-19 | Panthers v. Texans OVER 47 | 16-10 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Carolina and Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the ‘over’ in the Panthers blowout win in Arizona last week while just missing with the same play in the Texans impressive road win over the Chargers. The latter game appeared headed well north of the total before things ground to a halt in the fourth quarter. I’m not anticipating a similar story to unfold here. This is another fine matchup for Panthers backup QB Kyle Allen, who delivered a truly impressive performance, albeit against a very beatable Cardinals defense last week. The Panthers speed at the wide receiver position is likely to give the Texans fits here while RB Christian McCaffrey should have little trouble both on the ground and through the air against a defense that has been very vulnerable against opposing running backs this season. It’s always a bit of a leap of faith when supporting the Texans offense, due to a couple of reasons, the least of which being the play-calling of Bill O’Brien and the other the issues on the offensive line. Houston did seem to sort out its o-line issues in last week’s game and the pure talent of QB Deshaun Watson and WR DeAndre Hopkins always helps limit the worry around this offense in general. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-29-19 | Chiefs -7 v. Lions | 34-30 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. Perhaps due to their weak defense and the surprising start of the Lions, the Chiefs remain a relatively short road favorite in Detroit on Sunday afternoon. We won with the Lions in their upset victory in Philadelphia last week but that had more to do with the Eagles laundry list of injuries than anything else. This may be a showdown between two undefeated teams but they really couldn’t be at much more opposite ends of the spectrum offensively. The Chiefs just keep rolling along and catch the Lions in a tough spot with a number of key injuries on the defensive side of the football, the least concerning of which to CB Darius Slay. QB Patrick Mahomes should be in for another monster performance in ideal conditions at Ford Field on Sunday afternoon. Kansas City’s struggles defending the run will likely encourage the Lions, already a ‘run-first’ team, to pound the football on the ground here, but it’s the wrong move in my opinion as Detroit simply won’t be able to keep pace with an explosive Chiefs offense by running the football. Take Kansas City (10*). | |||||||
09-28-19 | Ohio State v. Nebraska UNDER 67 | Top | 48-7 | Win | 100 | 22 h 22 m | Show |
CFB Big Ten Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Ohio State and Nebraska at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. We won with the ‘over’ in Ohio State’s last road game, a 51-10 win at Indiana two weeks ago. While I do expect to see another strong showing from the Buckeyes defense, I also look for Nebraska to feed off the energy of a raucous home crowd and at least hold their own defensively for a stretch in this one, which will be enough to keep the final score ‘under’ the inflated total. It’s hard to imagine any Ohio State total not being inflated at this point as the Buckeyes have scored an incredible 214 points through four games, looking virtually unstoppable in the process. I simply see this as the game where things settle down a little bit. I’m not sure Ohio State is interested in getting involved in another shootout with the Cornhuskers after narrowly escaping with a 36-31 victory in this matchup last November. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-28-19 | Ohio State -17 v. Nebraska | 48-7 | Win | 100 | 22 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Ohio State minus the points over Nebraska at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. Ohio State continues to steamroll inferior competition and while Nebraska looks like it poses a significant challenge on paper, I’m not sure it’s going to play out that way on the field. The Cornhuskers are coming off yet another offensive explosion last week, scoring 42 points in a road win over Illinois. QB Adrian Martinez has done it all on a weekly basis but I’m confident the Buckeyes can develop a gameplan to slow down the Huskers dynamic quarterback. The argument can certainly be made that Ohio State has been the most impressive team in college football so far this season, outscoring the opposition by a ridiculous 214-36 margin. This represents the Buckeyes first true test and I definitely believe they’ll be up for it, especially after narrowly escaping with a 36-31 in this same matchup last November. Lost in Nebraska’s hot start offensively has been its awful defensive play against any opponent with a pulse, giving up 34 points at Colorado and 38 at Illinois. Home cooking has been kind so far, but those performances came against South Alabama and Northern Illinois as double-digit favorites. Expect a different story to unfold here. Take Ohio State (10*). | |||||||
09-28-19 | Kansas State +4.5 v. Oklahoma State | 13-26 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas State plus the points over Oklahoma State at 7 pm et on Saturday. While Oklahoma State was involved in a shootout loss against rival Texas last Saturday, Kansas State was idle and enters this game with its undefeated record intact. The Wildcats have just one impressive win to their credit, that coming in their last game, a 31-24 win as a touchdown underdog at Mississippi State (we won with the ‘over’ in that game). I do like the way this one sets up for Kansas State as well as I expect it to run the football at will and control the clock, ultimately shortening this game against offensive-minded Oklahoma State. The Cowboys have a potent ground attack of their own but I suspect they’ll be in tough contending with a rested and ready Wildcats defense. Note that Kansas State held Mississippi State out of the end zone in the critical final 19 minutes of the game two weeks ago, after falling behind 21-17. Wildcats QB Skylar Thompson hasn’t been racking up the completions or yardage totals but has been efficient, throwing four touchdowns compared to no interceptions through three games. Take Kansas State (10*). | |||||||
09-28-19 | East Carolina v. Old Dominion OVER 46.5 | 24-21 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between East Carolina and Old Dominion at 6 pm et on Saturday. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair between these two teams last September as East Carolina pulled out a 37-35 victory. While I’m not anticipating that level of shootout on this occasion, I do think the potential is there for this one to fly ‘over’ the relatively low posted total. Save for a 48-point outburst against FCS squad Gardner-Webb, East Carolina hasn’t been able to get much going offensively this season. It is, however, coming off a victory over William & Mary last week that saw it get a spark from its ground game and I see this as an excellent opportunity to build on that performance against an Old Dominion defense that has been better than advertised but may be in for a letdown here. Old Dominion has dropped back-to-back games at Virginia Tech and Virginia after opening its campaign with a field goal win over Norfolk State. The Monarchs games have been lower-scoring than expected on the whole which certainly helps our cause playing the ‘over’ in this one. Note that we played the ‘over’ in ODU’s 31-17 loss at Virginia Tech earlier this season, a game that fell just short of the total. The Monarchs allowed an offensive touchdown in all four quarters in that game. This is a smash spot for the ODU offense against a Pirates defense that has been crushed in its only two games against FBS competition, allowing a whopping 76 points against N.C. State and Navy. The 42 points ECU allowed at against Navy could have been even worse had the Midshipmen not eased off the gas after building a 39-point lead. Here, I’m anticipating a more competitive game and that lends itself to a high-scoring result. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-28-19 | Arkansas v. Texas A&M UNDER 61 | 27-31 | Win | 100 | 15 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Texas A&M and Arkansas at 12 noon et on Saturday. This matchup produced just 41 total points last season and I believe oddsmakers are being very generous putting this total in the high-50’s on Saturday. Texas A&M has exploded against the likes of Texas State and Lamar but has been held at bay in both of its ‘step-up’ games against Clemson and Auburn. Of course, those latter two opponents are two of the best teams in the entire country and Arkansas is far from their level. With that being said this is a strong motivational spot for the Razorbacks at home off a poor showing against San Jose State on this field just last week. I’m confident the ‘Hogs will hold their own defensively but not so sold on their offense which has been completely held at bay in two of four games this season, including a matchup against Ole Miss in which they didn’t score an offensive touchdown until the game’s final two minutes. Last week we saw Arkansas score a touchdown with about a minute left in the first quarter but then didn’t reach the end zone again until the first two minutes of the fourth quarter – and that was against a San Jose State squad that had given up 34 points in a blowout loss against Tulsa the game previous. I don’t see the Razorbacks busting out offensively against an Aggies team that is better than their 2-2 record indicates. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-27-19 | Duke v. Virginia Tech OVER 52 | 45-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Duke and Virginia Tech at 7 pm et on Friday. With Virginia Tech coming off back-to-back relatively low-scoring contests here in Blacksburg we're dealing with a reasonably low total as the Hokies host the Blue Devils on Friday night. I'm anticipating plenty of offense, however. Note that Virginia Tech has scored at least an offensive touchdown in all four quarters of two of its three games to date this season. Last time out against Furman, the Hokies got off to a very slow start but ultimately rallied to score three second half touchdowns in a narrow victory. Save for a beatdown at the hands of Alabama back in Week 1 (in which it gave up five offensive touchdowns in the second and third quarters) Duke hasn't really been tested defensively with its last two wins coming against North Carolina A&T and Middle Tennessee. Offensively, the Blue Devils haven't really missed a beat without QB Daniel Jones, with Quentin Harris passing for nearly 600 yards and eight touchdowns over the last two games. The last meeting between these two teams totaled just 45 points last September but that only serves to keep this total in a reasonable range. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-26-19 | Eagles v. Packers OVER 46 | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 23 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Green Bay at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. The Packers offense has seemingly gotten better with each passing week in this, the first year of the Matt LaFleur era. That's not saying a lot as they've topped out at 27 points, but I see this as an absolute smash spot against a struggling and undermanned Eagles defense on Thursday night. The Philadelphia secondary is injury-ravaged and it certainly showed in last week's 27-24 loss to the previously offensively-challenged Lions, at home no less. It's hard to envision the Eagles figuring things out defensively playing on the road on a short week. On a positive note, Philadelphia is expected to have WR Alshon Jeffery back in the fold after he missed last week's game. I still have confidence in the Eagles offense, even with the rash of injuries that unit has dealt with. Note that while the Packers defense has been outstanding, they have still managed to allow exactly 16 points in back-to-back home games against the Vikings and Broncos, with opposing quarterbacks Kirk Cousins and Joe Flacco turning in dismal performances. I do think we'll see the Eagles beat that point production in this one, which should put us in good position to cash our 'over' ticket. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-26-19 | Navy v. Memphis OVER 53 | 23-35 | Win | 100 | 36 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Navy and Memphis at 8 pm et on Thursday. We saw a relatively low-scoring affair between these two teams in last year's meeting as Navy prevailed by a 22-21 score. Both the Midshipmen and Tigers enter this contest with undefeated records but their early schedules have been admittedly soft. With both coming off bye weeks they'll be eager to get rolling again here, and I'm anticipating a competitive, high-scoring contest. We certainly haven't seen the best from either offense in the early going this season, which is saying something considering Navy has scored 87 points through two games while Memphis has put up a whopping 97 points in its last two contests. While the Memphis ground game is capable of cranking it up against any opponent, I think this is the game where we'll see Tigers QB Brady White move the football at will against the Navy secondary. The question is whether Navy can keep up as a double-digit underdog. I do believe the Midshipmen will find some success offensively with QB Malcolm Perry rounding back into form. Last season was a general disappointment for the Middies offense but they're off to a solid start this year with Perry coming off a 156-yard, four touchdown rushing day against East Carolina last time out, adding two touchdowns through the air as well. I had this total pegged in the high-50's so I'm willing to take a shot at the current number. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-23-19 | Bears v. Redskins OVER 41 | 31-15 | Win | 100 | 82 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Washington at 8:15 pm et on Monday. The Bears offense has looked downright awful through two games this season but you have to consider the fact that they've had a tough draw, facing two tough defensive opponents in the Packers (who have been better than expected in that department) and the Broncos (in Denver). Here, I look for the Chicago offense, and QB Mitch Trubisky in particular, to get loose against a Redskins defense that has been awful for the most part through two games. Washington has played reasonably well defensively for stretches but even with that, has still given up a whopping 63 points. The Redskins have allowed 4.7 yards per rush so far this season and that should really help open things up for RB David Montgomery, who is coming off a nice performance last week in Denver. Chicago will be a popular road favorite play here but I'm not convinced it will be able to run away and hide on what will certainly be a highly-motivated and desperate Redskins squad off to an 0-2 start. Redskins QB Case Keenum has actually played pretty well when his team has been trailing in the early going this season, closing each of the last two games with late fourth quarter touchdown passes. He and WR Terry McLaurin have built a nice chemistry and can have continued success, even in a tough matchup here. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-22-19 | Rams -3 v. Browns | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 59 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Cleveland at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. This is a tough spot for the Browns, returning home on a short week to face one of the league's best teams, and potentially doing so without a number of key cogs. Cleveland enters this game banged-up after Monday's win over the Jets, losing TE David Njoku and OLB Christian Kirksey to injuries in that game. The Rams come in relatively healthy and off an easier-than-expected home win over the Saints thanks to Drew Brees' injury. The Browns will certainly be up for this opportunity to prove that all of the preseason hype was warranted but the fact is, they haven't looked very good through two games, and I don't believe they can hang around for 60 minutes against a vastly superior team. Yes, Rams QB Jared Goff has struggled in games such as this, on the road in primetime, but that has little bearing here as he's a more experienced quarterback now and figures to have learned how to better handle these situations. Los Angeles is well-positioned to move to 3-0 on Sunday night. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
09-22-19 | Texans v. Chargers OVER 48 | 27-20 | Loss | -119 | 55 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Houston and Los Angeles at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. This is another game that has major shootout potential on Sunday afternoon. The Texans are coming off one of the uglier games we’ve seen through the first two weeks of the season last week, barely eking out a win over the Jaguars at home. Here, I look for a much more explosive performance against a Chargers defense that has struggled in the early going this season, particularly against the run. It’s that lack of run defense (allowing over five yards per rush) that should open the door for Watson to have a monster day. Los Angeles simply doesn’t have anyone in the secondary that can contend with WR DeAndre Hopkins or even Will Fuller. On the flip side, the Chargers offense had a tough time in Detroit last week but catches a soft draw here as the Texans have allowed opposing rushers to gain 5.5 yards per rush. RB Austin Ekeler has made Chargers fans forget all about contract holdout Melvin Gordon and should continue to play a major factor in this week’s game against Houston. QB Philip Rivers hasn’t appeared to miss a step and should have little trouble tearing apart a weak Texans secondary with the help of WR Keenan Allen, who is healthy and appears to be in midseason form. I’m confident the losing squad gets well into the 20’s which suits our purposes just fine. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-22-19 | Steelers +7 v. 49ers | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 55 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh plus the points over San Francisco at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. Most are quick to write off the Steelers after losing QB Ben Roethlisberger for the season in last week’s home loss to the Seahawks. I’m not sure we’re going to see much of a dropoff in offensive production with backup QB Mason Rudolph at the helm, however. It’s not as if Big Ben was lighting it up for the Steelers in early action this season. In fact, it was Rudolph that gave the team a major spark and moved the football at will after entering last week’s game. It appears Steelers RB James Conner will be good to go this week after an injury scare. Even if he can’t, the Steelers have excellent depth at the position with Jaylen Samuels a dynamic playmaker as well. San Francisco came up with a nice blowout win in Cincinnati last week, moving to a surprising 2-0 on the season. Let’s not get carried away with that result, however, as the Bengals figure to be a bottom-tier team. The Steelers aren’t about to completely shut down the 49ers offense on the road this week, but I do look for them to bounce back from consecutive awful performances against the Patriots and Seahawks in what was certainly a difficult two-game slate to open the campaign. Simply put, we’re being given too many points in a game that could go either way. Take Pittsburgh (10*). | |||||||
09-22-19 | Saints v. Seahawks -4 | 33-27 | Loss | -110 | 55 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle minus the points over New Orleans at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. New Orleans stays on the west coast for a second straight week after suffering a loss against the Rams in Los Angeles last Sunday afternoon. The Saints will have to go forward without their heart and soul, QB Drew Brees, and that doesn’t bode well as their backups Teddy Bridgewater and Taysom Hill represent a major dropoff in talent (and likely production) as far as I’m concerned. Head coach Sean Payton wouldn’t even confirm that Bridgewater is his starter for this game and that’s not encouraging. Yes, the Saints still have plenty of talent, but this is a tough draw against a Seahawks squad that is off to a terrific start to the season. Seattle’s defensive strength has been against the run in the early going this season, holding the opposition to 3.75 yards per rush. If the Seahawks can keep Saints RB Alvin Kamara in check in this one that will obviously go a long way toward securing a victory. New Orleans hasn’t shown any semblance of a run defense through two games, giving up nearly six yards per rush and things aren’t going to get any easier now that LB Alex Anzalone is sidelined. The Seahawks offensive balance should give the Saints defense fits in this game and it’s hard not to like what we’ve seen from QB Russell Wilson who is off to one of the best starts of his career. He and WR Tyler Lockett are completely in sync right now and the Saints will be hard-pressed to keep them in check here. Take Seattle (10*). | |||||||
09-22-19 | Panthers v. Cardinals OVER 43.5 | Top | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 55 h 39 m | Show |
NFL NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Carolina and Arizona at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. With the Panthers likely to be without QB Cam Newton and both of these teams coming off relatively low-scoring ‘under’ results last week, we’re being given a very reasonable total to work with here. I’m actually anticipating a bit of a shootout to develop here and will gladly play the ‘over’ at the number being offered. Panthers backup QB Kyle Allen doesn’t really represent much of a downgrade from Newton considering how hobbled Cam looked in the early going this season. The Panthers still possess an excellent wide receiver corps not to mention one of the best running backs in the league in Christian McCaffrey. This is an excellent breakout spot for the Panthers offense against a Cardinals defense that has looked awful without Patrick Peterson and Robert Alford roaming the secondary. Carolina was expected to take a big step forward defensively considering the personnel moves it made in the offseason but so far, not so good as it has allowed opposing rushers to gain over 4.5 yards per rush and has by no means been a shut down unit against the pass. The Cardinals had a tough draw against the Ravens defense in Baltimore last Sunday but should bounce back here at home. Kyler Murray has turned in back-to-back 300+ yard passing games to open his career and he and WR Larry Fitzgerald should have a field day against the Panthers defense on Sunday afternoon. Don’t forget about Cards RB David Johnson either, who should have little trouble tuning up the Panthers struggling run defense. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-22-19 | Raiders v. Vikings -8 | Top | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 52 h 43 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over Oakland at 1 pm et on Sunday. Fresh off an ugly loss against the rival Packers at Lambeau Field last Sunday this is an ideal ‘get right’ spot for the Vikings back home against the Raiders. Oakland got manhandled by the Chiefs in a game that could have been even more lopsided had Kansas City not taken its foot off the gas last week. Now the Raiders have to travel two time zones east for an early 12 noon local start on Sunday afternoon. There’s not much to get excited about when it comes to the Raiders offense and this is a brutal matchup against what will be a highly-motivated and ultra-talented Vikings defense. Minnesota employs a ‘run-first’ offense to be sure, but that’s fine as RB Dalvin Cook has arguably been the best back in football so far this season. He should have little trouble putting this game away when called upon on Sunday afternoon but before that look for QB Kirk Cousins to bounce back from last week’s no-show in Green Bay with an efficient afternoon under center. Take Minnesota (10*). | |||||||
09-21-19 | Notre Dame v. Georgia UNDER 58.5 | Top | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 71 h 58 m | Show |
CFB TV Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Notre Dame and Georgia at 8 pm et on Saturday. The last time these two teams met back in 2017 they combined to score just 39 points in a one-point Georgia victory. While many are expecting a much higher-scoring affair this time around, I don’t see it. Yes, Notre Dame is fresh off a 66-point explosion against New Mexico but the Lobos are one of the country’s weakest teams. Prior to that the Irish had their hands full on the road against Louisville, eventually pulling away for a 35-17 win. Georgia has taken full advantage of a fairly weak early-season schedule, scoring a combined 148 points in wins over Vanderbilt, Murray State and Arkansas State. Defensively, the Bulldogs haven’t really been tested but there’s no question this is an elite group. The same goes for the Irish, who save for a couple of lapses have been rock solid through two games. They did give up 17 points against a mediocre Louisville offense in Week 1, but it’s worth noting that after giving up two touchdowns in the game’s first 11 minutes, they held the Cardinals out of the end zone the rest of the way. Over their last 7+ quarters of action the Irish have allowed just two touchdowns. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-21-19 | Baylor -26 v. Rice | 21-13 | Loss | -105 | 70 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baylor minus the points over Rice at 7 pm et on Saturday. While we are being asked to lay a lot of points in this game, I believe the line could be even higher. Baylor is off to a perfect 2-0 start, beating up on Stephen F. Austin and Texas-San Antonio to the tune of a combined 119-31 score. Rice might actually be worse than both of those teams. I like the way Baylor has essentially ‘run up the score’ against its first two opponents, scoring three fourth quarter touchdowns despite those two contests having already been completely out of hand. While Rice comes in off physical affairs against Wake Forest and Texas in the last two weeks, Baylor is fresh off its bye week. The Owls “only” lost by 35 points last week against Texas, largely due to the Longhorns simply running out the clock in the last 20+ minutes of the game (they did score a kick return touchdown in the game’s final minute). Save for a strong showing against Army’s option-based offense in Week 1, the Owls haven’t had any luck slowing opposing offenses. They particularly struggle against teams that can air it out and Baylor certainly falls in that category. Note that over its last two games, Rice has allowed opposing quarterbacks to go 49-of-61 passing for 650 yards, six touchdowns an no interceptions. Baylor QB Charlie Brewer is still rounding into form but has already thrown for six touchdowns an no interceptions through two games. His efficiency will only improve (he’s 33-of-47 passing for 362 yards so far) and I fully expect to see him dominate the Owls secondary in this contest. Take Baylor (10*). | |||||||
09-21-19 | SMU v. TCU UNDER 55.5 | 41-38 | Loss | -108 | 67 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between SMU and TCU at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I absolutely love the way the ‘under’ sets up in this one as the undefeated Mustangs and Horned Frogs go head-to-head in Texas. SMU has absolutely shredded opposing defenses through three games, racking up 133 points. Keep in mind, those performances came against the likes of Arkansas State, North Texas and Texas State. This will certainly be the Mustangs toughest test to date against a terrific TCU defense. The Horned Frogs have allowed just 20 points through two games. Last time out against Purdue, TCU didn’t allow a touchdown until the final four minutes of the fourth quarter when the game was already well out of hand. The Horned Frogs will certainly have their guard up against undefeated SMU and its high-octane offense. While the Mustangs aren’t known for their defensive ability and have given up 74 points through three games there is some reason for optimism here. Even when SMU gave up 30 points at Arkansas State in Week 1 it gave up a touchdown in the game’s first two minutes before holding the Red Wolves out of the end zone again until the third quarter. They gave up only two touchdowns in the first 58 minutes of the game against a good North Texas offense two weeks ago. My point is, they’re capable of holding up well for stretches and its not as if TCU is an offensive juggernaut. Last week at Purdue the Horned Frogs scored a touchdown in the final two minutes of the first quarter but didn’t find the end zone again until nearly midway through the third quarter. Even in their home-opener against FCS squad Arkansas-Pine Bluff they managed just one touchdown until the final 10 seconds of the third quarter. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-21-19 | Auburn v. Texas A&M OVER 47.5 | Top | 28-20 | Win | 100 | 66 h 28 m | Show |
CFB SEC Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Auburn and Texas A&M at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. This matchup didn’t develop into a shootout last year as Auburn prevailed by a 28-24 score. I do think the potential is there for this year’s meeting to play out a little differently, however. Auburn didn’t exactly come roaring out of the gates this season, needing a big fourth quarter rally to outlast Oregon by a 27-21 score back in Week 1. The Tigers followed that up with an unimpressive 24-6 win over Tulane but then got loose for a 55-16 rout of Kent State last Saturday. I believe that explosive performance last week, in which they scored two offensive touchdowns in three of four quarters, was just what the doctor ordered heading into this showdown. Texas A&M turned in a similar performance last week, blowing the doors off FCS squad Lamar 62-3. I liked the way the Aggies kept their foot on the gas in that contest, even scoring two fourth quarter touchdowns when the game was already completely out of hand. They may need all the offense they can get against Auburn this week. Texas A&M has actually held up quite well defensively through three games, although the loss to Clemson certainly could have been much worse had the Tigers not eased up after building a big second half lead (not to mention the fact that Clemson is still finding its offensive rhythm. Given the early season schedules, we really don’t know exactly how good either of these defenses are. I have more faith in the offenses ability to produce at this stage of the season. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-21-19 | Western Michigan v. Syracuse OVER 65 | 33-52 | Win | 100 | 63 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Western Michigan and Syracuse at 12 noon et on Saturday. We missed the mark with the ‘over’ in Syracuse’s blowout loss at home against Clemson last Saturday night but despite that dud, I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Western Michigan will be Syracuse’s opponent this time around and the Broncos are off to an excellent offensive start, having scored 122 points through three games, albeit with most of the damage being done in matchups with Monmouth and Georgia State. Western Michigan was held to only 17 points in its lone road test to date, but that came against Michigan State in East Lansing – a tough challenge to be sure. Credit WMU for scoring a pair of touchdowns and putting together three scoring drives in that contest. Here, the Broncos should find the going much easier against a Syracuse squad that has only been able to slow down FCS opponent Liberty through three games this season. In the Orange’s other two contests they allowed a whopping 104 points against Maryland and Clemson. We saw the Syracuse offense get bogged down last Saturday but that was against one of the best defenses in college football in Clemson. I fully expect a strong bounce-back performance against the Broncos. Note that two weeks ago against Michigan State, Western Michigan allowed three offensive touchdowns in the first quarter alone and six over the course of the game. The Broncos have really had a tough time containing opposing ground games so far this season and will have their hands full again at the Carrier Dome. This one has true shootout potential noting that last year’s meeting produced 97 points. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-20-19 | Air Force v. Boise State OVER 55 | Top | 19-30 | Loss | -109 | 82 h 1 m | Show |
CFB MWC Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Air Force and Boise State at 9 pm et on Friday. We saw a shootout between these two teams last year as Boise State prevailed by a 48-38 score in a wild contest. I expect more of the same as the Falcons and Broncos do battle on Friday night in Boise. We won with Air Force in its outright underdog victory on the road against Colorado last Saturday. That win didn’t come easy as the Falcons coughed up a 13-point lead in the fourth quarter before winning in overtime. This is an experienced Air Force offense that is operating at a high-level running the option. Remember, in its season-opener it put together five touchdown drives in the first half alone, albeit against FCS squad Colgate. Here, the Falcons know they’ll need to put 7’s on the board on most drives in order to keep up with the Broncos. Boise State is off to a perfect 3-0 start this season but after scoring 36 points in its season-opening win at Florida State, it has sputtered a bit, scoring 59 points in its last two wins over Marshall and Portland State, both at home. The last time we saw the Broncos on national TV they managed only 14 points in the victory over Marshall. I look for them to find a lot more success moving the ball against a middle-of-the-road Air Force defense. I liked the way Boise State worked sophomore dual-threat QB Chase Cord into the action last week against Portland State. He essentially took over the game late, throwing for two touchdowns and running for another. His presence gives the Broncos offense another element that Air Force will need to prepare for after really struggling defensively in this matchup a year ago. Credit Boise State for giving up just 17 points in its last two games but I don’t believe those results necessarily mean its defense is elite. As a single-digit favorite at home, I don’t think we’re going to see the Broncos run away and hide in this one, and that lends itself to a high-scoring affair on the blue turf. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-19-19 | Titans v. Jaguars UNDER 39.5 | 7-20 | Win | 100 | 23 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Tennessee and Jacksonville at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. This total is about as low as it gets in today's NFL but it's warranted in my opinion. We're talking about two teams that have no interest in speeding things up due in large part to their 'game manager' quarterbacks. Titans QB Marcus Mariota missed practice earlier this week and might not be at full speed on Thursday night, further hampering an already-below average Tennessee offense. Yes, RB Derrick Henry absolutely ran wild against the Jags in a Thursday night matchup last December but don't count on history repeating itself here. The Jags have already had their season derailed, first with the injury to QB Nick Foles and then with star corner Jalen Ramsey asking to be traded. For now Ramsey is still on the team and he should play a big part in slowing the Titans on Thursday night. Tennessee's defense catches a matchup it can handle here with Jags backup QB Gardner Minshew a 'dink-and-dunk' type of player. Look for the Titans to stack the box against Jags RB Leonard Fournette and force Minshew to beat them through the air in this one. Take the under (10*). |
Service | Profit |
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Ricky Tran | $756 |
ProSportsPicks | $632 |
Joseph D'Amico | $510 |
Joey Tron | $450 |
Tom Macrina | $399 |
Nick Parsons | $344 |
Sean Murphy | $306 |
Jack Jones | $303 |
William Burns | $233 |
Dan Kaiser | $220 |